Vodafone Group PLC (VOD) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

沃達豐在業務轉型以實現成長方面取得了重大進展,重點是客戶體驗和營運效率。該公司的客戶滿意度和財務表現均有所改善,並計劃繼續在這些領域進行投資。他們對自己的轉型充滿信心,並期望持續成長,尤其是在德國。

沃達豐正在進行總投資 1 億歐元的轉型計劃,該計劃影響 EBITDA 業績,但將指導未來的成長。該公司專注於收入、EBITDA 和現金流等成長指標,並對長期前景持樂觀態度。他們也正在討論合併、合作夥伴關係和潛在的資產出售,以推動股東回報和效率提升。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. A year ago, we set out our plans to fundamentally transform Vodafone for growth. Since then, I'm pleased with the pace of response and speed of execution from everyone at Vodafone.

    大家早安,感謝您今天加入我們。一年前,我們制定了從根本上改造沃達豐以實現成長的計畫。從那時起,我對沃達豐每個人的反應速度和執行速度感到滿意。

  • We have moved quickly to reshape our European footprint, having announced the sales of Spain and Italy as well as our merger in the U.K. Our new portfolio shape will enable us to focus on growing markets with strong positions and good local scale. And as the results and guidance we shared today demonstrate, we are in a much stronger position to deliver more sustainable and predictable growth and drive improved returns.

    我們迅速採取行動重塑我們的歐洲足跡,宣佈出售西班牙和義大利業務以及在英國的合併。正如我們今天分享的結果和指導所表明的那樣,我們處於更有利的地位,可以實現更永續和可預測的成長並推動更高的回報。

  • Whilst we have made good progress in changing the shape of Vodafone, our operational transformation, focused on customers, simplicity and growth is driving deeper fundamental changes.

    雖然我們在改變沃達豐的形態方面取得了良好進展,但我們以客戶為中心的營運轉型、簡單性和成長正在推動更深層的根本性變革。

  • We are changing where we invest our time and resources towards our customers. While there is clearly more to do, we are already seeing improved results. We have reduced the number of customer detractors across our markets this year through a systematic effort to remove customer pain points, and we now have a leading or co-leading NPS position in 5 out of 9 of our European markets.

    我們正在改變為客戶投入時間和資源的方式。雖然顯然還有更多工作要做,但我們已經看到了改善的結果。今年,我們透過系統性的努力消除客戶痛點,減少了整個市場中客戶批評者的數量,現在我們在 9 個歐洲市場中的 5 個市場中處於領先或共同領先的 NPS 地位。

  • We are also changing how we organize ourselves to be simpler and more efficient and have made good progress against our productivity targets. We have established a new commercialized model for our shared operations that will allow us to better serve our markets and telco partners and scale up or down our cost base in response to changes in demand. And on growth, all segments are now growing as you have seen, and our performance in business was particularly strong with service revenue growth accelerating to 5% this year.

    我們也正在改變我們的組織方式,使其變得更簡單、更有效率,並在實現生產力目標方面取得了良好進展。我們為我們的共享營運建立了一個新的商業化模式,這將使我們能夠更好地服務我們的市場和電信合作夥伴,並根據需求的變化擴大或縮小我們的成本基礎。在成長方面,正如您所看到的,所有細分市場現在都在成長,我們的業務表現尤其強勁,今年服務收入成長加速至 5%。

  • Beyond our progress on our strategic priorities, I am pleased with the financial results we have delivered, having slightly exceeded our guidance for the year. Our service revenue growth has been accelerating throughout the year, and EBITDA grew by 2% in a year with significant inflationary headwinds, especially energy prices, as well as significant reinvestments we have made to improve our customer experience.

    除了我們在策略重點方面取得的進展之外,我對我們所交付的財務業績感到滿意,略超出了我們今年的指導。我們的服務收入全年都在加速成長,EBITDA 在一年內成長了 2%,其中通貨膨脹阻力很大,特別是能源價格,以及我們為改善客戶體驗而進行的大量再投資。

  • But looking ahead to next year, much more still needs to be done. We have clear areas of focus for FY '25 to drive operational excellence across the group. We will once more step up investments in our customer experience and focus on improving our underlying performance in Germany which includes a broad range of actions across our fixed and mobile propositions, our channel strategy, the MDU transition and the utilization and quality of our networks.

    但展望明年,仍有許多工作要做。我們對 25 財年有明確的重點領域,以推動整個集團的卓越營運。我們將再次增加對客戶體驗的投資,並專注於改善我們在德國的基本績效,其中包括在我們的固定和移動主張、我們的通路策略、MDU 轉型以及我們網路的利用率和品質方面採取的廣泛行動。

  • We'll also continue to accelerate our momentum in business and simplify our operations throughout the group. Our operational transformation will enable us to build a better Vodafone, generating growth and delivering the best experience possible for our 300 million consumers and 5 million business customers.

    我們也將繼續加快業務發展勢頭並簡化整個集團的營運。我們的營運轉型將使我們能夠打造更好的沃達豐,實現成長並為我們的 3 億消費者和 500 萬企業客戶提供最佳體驗。

  • And with that, both Luka and I will now take your questions.

    現在,盧卡和我將回答你們的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, Margherita. We will now take our first question from Emmet Kelly at Morgan Stanley.

    謝謝你,瑪格麗特。現在我們將回答摩根士丹利埃米特凱利提出的第一個問題。

  • Emmet Bryan Kelly - Head of European Telecoms Research

    Emmet Bryan Kelly - Head of European Telecoms Research

  • Just one question, please. You have public, your guidance for the forthcoming year. And as always, there's a lot of moving parts with any European telco company. Can you maybe say a few words about the various puts and takes on the top line and also at the EBITDA level? Clearly, at EBITDA, I see a lot of moving parts, whether it's energy, MDUs, cost savings, et cetera. So just a few words on how we should think about the top line and EBITDA, the key drivers.

    請提一個問題。您已公開了對來年的指導。像往常一樣,任何歐洲電信公司都有很多變化的部分。您能否談談營業收入和 EBITDA 層面的各種看跌選擇權和認購選擇權?顯然,在 EBITDA 中,我看到了許多變化的部分,無論是能源、MDU、成本節約等等。因此,我們應該如何考慮關鍵驅動因素——營收和 EBITDA(息稅折舊攤提前利潤),簡單說幾句話。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Emmet. Luka, all yours.

    謝謝你,艾米特。盧卡,都是你的。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. Thanks a lot, Emmet, for the question. I know the drill by now. So obviously, first of all, let's just recognize that we are very pleased with the momentum, which we are exiting FY '24. We've seen an acceleration on the top line, the 7.1% growth at the group level. Very importantly, also the underlying performance in Germany has been very solid with 0.6% headline growth, but 1.5% underlying.

    是的。非常感謝埃米特提出的問題。我現在已經知道該怎麼做了。顯然,首先,我們對 24 財年退出的勢頭感到非常滿意。我們看到了營收的加速成長,集團層級成長了 7.1%。非常重要的是,德國的基本表現也非常穩健,整體成長率為 0.6%,但基礎成長率為 1.5%。

  • So in addition to that, we have in Vodafone business, a strong end to the year with 5.4% growth. So all of that is underpinning confidence in the fact that our transformation is actually yielding positive market momentum as well.

    除此之外,我們的沃達豐業務在年底也表現強勁,成長了 5.4%。因此,所有這些都增強了人們的信心,即我們的轉型實際上也產生了積極的市場動力。

  • When we then look into FY '25, to start with the top line, we would continue to expect decent growth also in FY '25 from a component perspective. In Germany, as we all know, it's a transitional year with the MDU headwind building up strongly now. We don't expect that our positive underlying growth that we expect to continue also in FY '25 will be sufficient to make up for that. So we expect Germany service revenue performance in FY '25 to turn negative before then in FY '26, obviously, making room for Germany returning as an important growth engine for the group.

    然後,當我們展望 25 財年時,首先從收入開始,我們將繼續預計從組成部分的角度來看 25 財年也會出現不錯的增長。眾所周知,在德國,這是過渡的一年,MDU 的逆風正在強勁增強。我們預計 25 財年將持續的正面的潛在成長不足以彌補這一點。因此,我們預計德國 25 財年的服務收入表現將在 26 財年之前轉為負值,這顯然為德國重新成為該集團的重要成長引擎創造了空間。

  • In the rest of Europe, we would expect a slowdown of growth because of the unwinding of CPI-driven increases, which will be very positive on the EBITDA front. I will come to that in a second. But on the service revenue growth side, we will certainly see a step down in the U.K., I would estimate to low single-digit growth. In the rest of Europe should remain slightly higher than that, but certainly a bit lower than what we have seen in FY '24.

    在歐洲其他地區,我們預計由於 CPI 驅動的成長放緩,成長將放緩,這對 EBITDA 方面將非常有利。我稍後會談到這一點。但在服務收入成長方面,我們肯定會看到英國的成長下降,我估計只有低個位數成長。歐洲其他地區應該會略高於這一水平,但肯定會比我們在 24 財年看到的要低。

  • And the rest of the group in the emerging markets will continue to grow very strongly. On the EBITDA front, as you have seen, we are guiding for growth in FY '25, which is, I would say, a strong statement given that, obviously, also on the EBITDA front, the MDU transition is adding a sizable headwind. As a result of that, Germany EBITDA will also be negative in FY '25.

    新興市場的其他公司將繼續強勁成長。在 EBITDA 方面,正如您所看到的,我們正在指導 25 財年的成長,我想說,這是一個強有力的聲明,因為顯然,在 EBITDA 方面,MDU 轉型也帶來了相當大的阻力。因此,德國 25 財年的 EBITDA 也將為負值。

  • In the rest of Europe, it will develop very favorably because of the energy cost unwind and the generally good commercial performance that we have seen in FY '24, then translating into the full-scale benefits on the profit front. And in the emerging markets, we continue to see strong growth prospects.

    在歐洲其他地區,由於能源成本下降以及我們在 24 財年看到的普遍良好的商業表現,它將發展得非常有利,然後轉化為利潤方面的全面效益。在新興市場,我們持續看到強勁的成長前景。

  • Beyond all of this, I think it's very important that setting Vodafone up for being a sustainable growth story for the future. So with this transitional year and the MDU headwinds out of the way, we certainly expect FY '26 to be a year of growth in both the top line as well as on the EBITDA line. So we should see a nice step-up going into FY '26.

    除此之外,我認為讓沃達豐成為未來永續成長的故事非常重要。因此,隨著這一過渡年和 MDU 逆風的消除,我們當然預計 26 財年將是營收和 EBITDA 成長的一年。因此,我們應該會在 26 財年看到一個不錯的進步。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Polo Tang at UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Polo Tang。

  • Polo Tang - MD & Head of Telecom Research

    Polo Tang - MD & Head of Telecom Research

  • So just one question on Germany. So if you look at German broadband net adds, they didn't see much of an improvement quarter-on-quarter. So can you give some color in terms of what's happening with German broadband net adds for April and May? And how confident are you that the broadband base can stabilize? And can you comment on what's happening with competitive dynamics for the German market?

    那麼只有一個關於德國的問題。因此,如果你看看德國寬頻網路的新增數量,你會發現他們並沒有看到季度環比有太大的改善。那麼能否介紹一下德國 4 月和 5 月寬頻網路新增情況?您對寬頻基礎穩定的信心有多大?您能否評論一下德國市場的競爭動態?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Polo. Fixed broadband in Q4, we have completed the EUR 7.5 million repricing that we have done through the year and still had 1 month of technical disconnection from the customers impacted by price rises. But you're right, that would have warranted a bigger quarter-on-quarter improvement in net adds compared to what we have seen. And what we see happening today in the market is effectively that having done such large-scale repricing on our base, we are seeing a degree of a halo effect on customer perceptions from this pricing that takes some time to fade.

    謝謝你,波羅。固定寬頻方面,我們在第四季度完成了全年 750 萬歐元的重新定價,但與受價格上漲影響的客戶仍有 1 個月的技術中斷時間。但你是對的,與我們所看到的相比,這將保證淨增量出現更大的季度環比改善。我們今天在市場上看到的情況是,在我們的基礎上進行瞭如此大規模的重新定價後,我們看到這種定價對客戶認知產生了一定程度的光環效應,這種效應需要一段時間才能消失。

  • In terms of what we expect for Q1 is an improvement on net adds quarter-on-quarter, and we see this continuing throughout the year. We have a number of actions in place as well that will support this ongoing improvement together with the fading of the price increase memory, let's say. In particular, you may have seen from the presentation, we are changing the way we are communicating with our customers in fixed line. We have a big reengineering of customer management process in play.

    就我們對第一季的預期而言,淨增量環比有所改善,我們認為這種情況將在全年持續。我們也採取了一系列行動來支持這種持續的改進,同時消除價格上漲的記憶。特別是,您可能從演示中看到,我們正在改變與客戶進行固定電話溝通的方式。我們正在對客戶管理流程進行大規模的重新設計。

  • And also a little bit later in the year in the second half, we will open up our footprint fiber connections so that our customers that are on DSL or mobile-only customers and want to benefit from higher speed but cannot access the cable network will also be able to benefit from higher speed. As I said, over time, we expect continued improvement on this KPI. And of course, our target is to have a fair share of the market value growth.

    同樣在今年下半年晚些時候,我們將開放我們的光纖連接,以便使用 DSL 或純行動客戶、希望受益於更高速度但無法存取有線網路的客戶也將能夠使用光纖連接。速度中受益。正如我所說,隨著時間的推移,我們預計該 KPI 會持續改進。當然,我們的目標是在市場價值成長中分享公平的份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Carl Murdock-Smith at Berenberg.

    我們的下一個問題來自貝倫貝格的卡爾·默多克·史密斯。

  • Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

    Carl Murdock-Smith - Analyst

  • I haven't lost my voice this quarter, so I'm able to ask a question. I'd like to ask about the German MDU single billing transition. On your comment today that you expect to retain around 50% of the 8.5 million MDU TV households, can you provide a bit more color on what you've seen so far to give you the confidence to give that figure?

    這個季度我沒有失聲,所以我可以問一個問題。我想問德國MDU單一計費過渡的問題。關於您今天的評論,您預計將保留 850 萬個 MDU 電視家庭中的 50% 左右,您能否就您迄今為止所看到的情況提供更多信息,讓您有信心給出這個數字?

  • Given that the 8.5 million customers are capital revenue of around EUR 800 million, is it fair to therefore think of that 50% is implying around EUR 400 million of revenue? And a year ago, you talked about committing EUR 100 million of resource to executing the transition last year. What would be the comparable resource figure be for the coming year that might reasonably be expected to drop away after this year?

    鑑於 850 萬客戶的資本收入約為 8 億歐元,因此認為 50% 意味著約 4 億歐元的收入是否公平?一年前,您談到去年投入 1 億歐元資源執行轉型。預計今年之後會下降的來年可比資源數據是多少?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Carl. I will let Luka take on the investment and the financial impact. But just in terms of what we are seeing, let me say that it's a very big impact, of course. But I'm very pleased with how our teams have progressed in the execution on this.

    謝謝你,卡爾。我會讓盧卡承擔投資和財務影響。但就我們所看到的情況而言,我想說,當然,這是一個非常大的影響。但我對我們的團隊在執行方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。

  • And also, I need to say, very pleased with the strength of our partnership with the Housing Association that has allowed a very strong cooperation in addressing the transition. If you think about our sales and marketing machine, we are nationwide reminding customers that they need to take action. And we are saying this very clearly above the line, but we also have in place a series of nudges as customers go through the process to remind them about the choices they need to make.

    而且,我還需要說,我們對我們與住房協會的強大合作夥伴關係感到非常高興,這使得我們能夠在解決過渡問題上進行非常強大的合作。如果您考慮我們的銷售和行銷機器,我們會在全國範圍內提醒客戶他們需要採取行動。我們在上面非常明確地表達了這一點,但在客戶完成整個流程時,我們也採取了一系列的提示措施,提醒他們需要做出的選擇。

  • We have gone through now effectively 4 months of bigger volumes with particularly the January wave being the most significant. As you have seen in our results, we have as of the end of March, secured 1.9 million customers in the period, and this is about 60% of the addressable base that we have processed through in that phase. And with the visibility we have now, it's giving us the confidence to say that we expect to land on around 50% penetration.

    現在,我們實際上已經經歷了 4 個月的較大交易量,尤其是 1 月的波動最為顯著。正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣,截至 3 月底,我們在此期間獲得了 190 萬客戶,這大約是我們在該階段處理的可尋址基礎的 60%。憑藉我們現在所擁有的知名度,我們有信心說我們預計滲透率將達到 50% 左右。

  • Clearly, the first to come through also tend to be the most proactive and therefore, we expect a degree of moderation over time. It will all add up, to your point, to a EUR 400 million drag from a financial perspective. And I'll let maybe Luka give a bit more color on this.

    顯然,第一個出現的人往往也是最主動的,因此,我們預計隨著時間的推移,情況會有所緩和。依照你的觀點,從財務角度來看,這一切加起來將造成 4 億歐元的拖累。我會讓盧卡對此給出更多的解釋。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes, in particular, on the investment because on the pure revenue impact and with that also EBITDA impact because it's an extremely high-margin business, I think you have already said everything that needs to be said, Margherita.

    是的,特別是在投資方面,因為對純粹的收入影響,以及 EBITDA 影響,因為這是一項利潤率極高的業務,我認為您已經說了所有需要說的話,瑪格麗特。

  • But in terms of the investment, you're right. The total transformation program is coming along with an investment price tag of EUR 100 million. Out of this, we have already spent the first half in FY '24. That's one of the reasons why we also had in half year 2 in Germany, a negative EBITDA performance. So there is a second EUR 50 million coming now in FY '25. And this will then obviously unwind and not stay with us going into FY '26.

    但就投資而言,你是對的。整個轉型計畫的投資金額為 1 億歐元。至此,我們已經度過了 24 財年的上半年。這就是為什麼我們在德國的第二年半中 EBITDA 表現為負的原因之一。因此,25 財年將發放第二筆 5,000 萬歐元。到了 26 財年,這種情況顯然會緩解,不會一直困擾我們。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Let me maybe just add that, of course, this is a very large impact. And it's a big drag in our guidance for FY '25, not just for Germany, but for the group as a whole. And we're really, both of us, looking forward to FY '26 when Germany will be back to be an important growth engine for the group after this drag. And of course, this will reflect, as Luka was mentioning earlier, also on our growth potential. Overall, we are guiding for growth already in '25 despite this EUR 400 million. So looking forward to '26.

    我想補充一點,當然,這是一個非常大的影響。這對我們 25 財年的指導產生了很大的拖累,不僅對德國如此,對整個集團也是如此。我們倆都非常期待 26 財年,屆時德國將在經歷了這次拖累之後重新成為該集團的重要成長引擎。當然,正如盧卡之前提到的,這也將反映我們的成長潛力。總體而言,儘管有 4 億歐元,但我們已經在 25 年指導成長。所以期待'26。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question this morning comes from Akhil Dattani at JPMorgan.

    今天早上的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Akhil Dattani。

  • Akhil Dattani - MD & European Telecoms Analyst

    Akhil Dattani - MD & European Telecoms Analyst

  • I wanted to drill a little bit deeper into the comments you've made, Margherita, on fundamentally transforming Vodafone to growth. And there's 2 parts to that. The first is I wondered if you could elaborate on exactly what sort of metrics are key for you when you think about growth? Is it revenue? Is it EBITDA? Is it cash flow? And any sort of high-level thoughts around the sort of growth rates or levels you aspire to.

    瑪格麗塔,我想更深入地探討您關於從根本上將沃達豐轉變為增長的評論。這有兩個部分。首先,我想知道您是否可以詳細說明,當您考慮成長時,哪些指標對您來說是關鍵?是收入嗎?是息稅折舊攤提前利潤嗎?是現金流嗎?以及圍繞您渴望的成長率或水平的任何高層想法。

  • But the bigger sort of picture point of this is that one of the things we've seen in the sector over the last two years is that a lot of companies have started giving midterm guidance targets across a whole range of financials. And I just wondered what your thoughts were on that transition as you sound a lot more confident now on your growth trajectory. Could you similarly consider providing midterm targets?

    但更重要的一點是,過去兩年我們在該行業看到的一件事是,許多公司已經開始在整個財務範圍內給出中期指導目標。我只是想知道您對這一轉變有何看法,因為您現在對自己的成長軌跡更加自信了。能否同樣考慮提供中期目標?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Akhil. Ultimately, when we think about growth, we go towards two fundamental KPIs that I think summarize our position, which is free cash flow growth and return on capital growth, which is a key objective for us.

    謝謝你,阿基爾。最終,當我們考慮成長時,我們會考慮兩個基本關鍵績效指標,我認為這總結了我們的立場,即自由現金流成長和資本成長回報率,這是我們的關鍵目標。

  • As drivers of that, you will have seen that we have set up a new scorecard since last year. And if I had to say what I mostly care about within that scorecard to enable ultimately free cash flow and returns growth, it's two things. Customer satisfaction, reduction in detractors, NPS improvement. I'm sure we may have a chance to talk more about this in the call. I think this is fundamental for the longer-term health of the business.

    作為這方面的推動者,您會看到我們自去年以來設立了新的記分卡。如果我必須說出我在記分卡中最關心的是什麼以實現最終的自由現金流和回報增長,那就是兩件事。客戶滿意度、批評者減少、淨推薦值 (NPS) 改善。我相信我們可能有機會在電話中更多地討論這個問題。我認為這對企業的長期健康發展至關重要。

  • And then driving the opportunity of growth in B2B, because I think it's much higher than what we see today, and it's in our hands to really drive this. And with the change of the shape of the group, winning on business, winning on customer satisfaction, these are all things that are now in our hands because we are in good growth markets in terms of where we operate, where we have also good local scale. So it's literally in our hands.

    然後推動 B2B 的成長機會,因為我認為它比我們今天看到的要高得多,並且真正推動這一成長掌握在我們手中。隨著集團形態的變化,贏得業務、贏得客戶滿意度,這些都是現在掌握在我們手中的事情,因為就我們的經營地點而言,我們處於良好的成長市場,我們也擁有良好的當地市場。規模。所以它確實在我們手中。

  • Now you raised a really good question on, so what about the midterm? I think standing back, you will understand that we see very much FY '25 as a year of transition and not just because of what's happening in Germany with the MDUs, but more broadly, we need to complete the deals that we have announced this year, rather in the last fiscal year now. And from FY '26 with the U.K. merger, you will see another change of perimeter. So although I think we have done a big effort and we need to thank also our finance and IR teams in giving you already guidance based on the new perimeter with the discontinued operations, there will be another change of perimeter with the merger.

    現在你提出了一個非常好的問題,那麼期中考呢?我認為退後一步,您會明白,我們將 25 財年視為過渡的一年,這不僅僅是因為德國 MDU 所發生的事情,而且更廣泛地說,我們需要完成今年宣布的交易,而不是現在的上一個財政年度。從 26 財年與英國的合併開始,您將看到邊界的另一個變化。因此,儘管我認為我們已經做出了巨大的努力,而且我們還需要感謝我們的財務和投資者關係團隊,他們已經根據已停止運營的新範圍為您提供了指導,但隨著合併,範圍將會發生另一次變化。

  • So what we can say today is what we have just talked about, which is we are guiding for growth in '25. And this is our traditional guidance, but despite the headwinds of the MDUs. And when we think about the longer term beyond '25, clearly, we look at it positively because we will miss that drag, which by the way, we talked about EUR 400 million on EBITDA, but there is also working capital, as you know, which is additional. So it's quite sizable on our free cash flow metric.

    所以我們今天能說的就是我們剛才談到的,那就是我們對 25 年成長的指導。這是我們的傳統指導方針,儘管 MDU 存在阻力。當我們考慮 25 年後的長期前景時,顯然,我們會積極看待它,因為我們會懷念那種拖累,順便說一句,我們談到 EBITDA 為 4 億歐元,但正如你所知,還有營運資金,這是額外的。因此,它在我們的自由現金流量指標中相當大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Steve Malcolm at Redburn.

    下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Steve Malcolm。

  • Stephen Paul Malcolm - Partner of Communications Research

    Stephen Paul Malcolm - Partner of Communications Research

  • Nice segue into the U.K. merger process. Just a couple of sort of quick link questions. First, on -- so you've got security clearance in the government. Do you know if that has any bearing on the CMA approval process?

    很好地進入了英國的合併過程。只是一些快速鏈接問題。首先,你已經獲得了政府的安全許可。您知道這對 CMA 審批流程有影響嗎?

  • And then just, I guess, as your exit from Italy kind of lightly testifies, not all mobile mergers are born equal. Can you -- I know you weren't specified, but can you give us a flavor of whether you have any red lines on potential remedies that would see you walk away from that merger? That would be great.

    然後,我想,正如你從義大利的退出所證明的那樣,並不是所有的移動合併都是生而平等的。我知道你沒有具體說明,但你能否告訴我們,你是否對潛在的補救措施有任何紅線,可以讓你放棄合併?那太好了。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Sure, Steve. I mean, starting from the end, absolutely, we don't think that this merger in the U.K. warrants any remedy. And we have been very, very clear in the last few months about the why. Keep in mind, it's completely different from either the merger that recently happened in Spain between Orange and MASMOVIL or completely different from the merger that -- the mergers that were discussed in the U.K. itself in previous years.

    當然,史蒂夫。我的意思是,從最後開始,我們絕對不認為英國的這次合併需要任何補救措施。在過去的幾個月裡,我們非常非常清楚其中的原因。請記住,這與 Orange 和 MASMOVIL 最近在西班牙發生的合併完全不同,也與前幾年在英國討論的合併完全不同。

  • And the reason why it's so different, and you're right, each situation is very specific, is that what we are doing in the U.K. is merging the two smaller mobile-only players, which have low market shares and no returns that give them the possibility to invest appropriately in the market. And it's not me speaking, it's also been off Com.

    之所以如此不同,你是對的,每種情況都是非常具體的,是我們在英國所做的就是合併兩個較小的純移動玩家,它們的市場份額很低,而且沒有給他們帶來回報在市場上進行適當投資的可能性。這不是我說的,通訊也已關閉。

  • In the U.K., you have three large converged players results of previous mergers. By combining the two smaller guys in the market, we are actually going to see a positive in terms of impact on competition because we will have a third scaled mobile network with not just the ability to invest, which in itself will create book dynamics for the U.K. market overall, but also the ability to have the capacity to compete on retail, but also on wholesale, which importantly is a market which drives very much retail pricing today, but where MVNOs are essentially facing a duopoly in the market today.

    在英國,您有三個大型融合參與者之前合併的結果。透過將市場上兩個規模較小的公司合併起來,我們實際上將看到對競爭的積極影響,因為我們將擁有第三個規模化的行動網絡,而不僅僅是投資能力,這本身將為總體而言,英國市場不僅有能力在零售和批發領域競爭,重要的是,這個市場在很大程度上推動了當今的零售定價,但MVNO 本質上面臨著當今市場的雙頭壟斷。

  • So sorry, very passionate about this. But I think it's a very strong proposition for all stakeholders. As you would expect, we are going through Phase II at the moment, very deep engagement. And you're absolutely right, the security approval has no read across to that. It was expected, and it came without any surprise, but the CMA process will continue all the way probably to the end of the year. And what we are doing now is having very intense reviews in order to address all the issues that were in the shopping list of Phase 1 as expected.

    非常抱歉,對此非常熱情。但我認為這對所有利害關係人來說都是一個非常有力的提議。正如您所期望的,我們目前正在經歷第二階段,非常深入的參與。你是絕對正確的,安全批准沒有讀到這一點。這是預料之中的,而且沒有任何意外,但 CMA 流程可能會持續到今年年底。我們現在正在做的是進行非常嚴格的審查,以便按預期解決第一階段購物清單中的所有問題。

  • Stephen Paul Malcolm - Partner of Communications Research

    Stephen Paul Malcolm - Partner of Communications Research

  • So we should take from that, that you are assuming that the remedies will be light, and you'll be very disciplined in any proposed revenues in your willingness to accept them.

    因此,我們應該從中得出,您假設補救措施會很簡單,並且在接受任何建議收入時都會非常嚴格。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • You should expect us to be extremely disciplined. Because, again, I don't think any remedy is needed, plus, you know why we are doing what we are doing, and you have seen our actions in Italy and the U.K. We are -- we need to play in good markets where we have opportunities for good returns and the synergies in the U.K. merger will provide just that.

    您應該期望我們非常遵守紀律。因為,我認為不需要任何補救措施,另外,你知道我們為什麼要做我們正在做的事情,你也看到了我們在義大利和英國的行動。我們有機會獲得良好的回報,而英國合併的綜效將提供這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from James Ratzer at New Street.

    下一個問題來自新街的 James Ratzer。

  • James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

    James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

  • So I'm really interested in learning a bit more about your current relationship with 1&1 in Germany. Now we're into FY '25, we'd be interested if you can give us any more precise guidance on the revenue impact you're expecting from that contract this year and maybe going into FY '26, when the EBITDA impact, I think, will be more significant.

    所以我真的很想多了解你們目前與德國 1&1 的關係。現在我們已經進入 25 財年,如果您能為我們提供有關今年合約對收入影響的更準確的指導,也許會進入 26 財年,屆時 EBITDA 影響,我會很感興趣。 。

  • And yesterday, we saw BNetzA suggest as part of the consultation that they're looking really for one of the MNOs to potentially lease or give up some low-band spectrum to 1&1 and that could potentially involve a network sharing or RAN sharing deal? Are you interested in helping to provide that? What's your willingness to consider it, maybe a deeper deal with 1&1 as part of this BNetzA proposal?

    昨天,我們看到 BNetzA 在諮詢中表示,他們確實正在尋找一家 MNO 來向 1&1 租賃或放棄一些​​低頻段頻譜,並且這可能涉及網絡共享或 RAN 共享交易?您有興趣幫助提供這項服務嗎?作為 BNetzA 提案的一部分,您是否願意考慮與 1&1 進行更深入的合作?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Thank you, James. I'll take the last part and then ask Luka to comment on the financial side. We are happy with the deal we have today with 1&1, which as you know, is a very long-term deal and partnership with 1&1. It's established for up to 18 years. And as part of that, we will effectively carry the traffic for the, I think, EUR 13 million now, 1&1 customers wherever 1&1 will not build its network. So from that perspective, we will need our spectrum, to answer your question. And so that's what you should expect. Financially?

    謝謝你,詹姆斯。我將討論最後一部分,然後請盧卡對財務方面發表評論。我們對今天與 1&1 達成的協議感到滿意,如您所知,這是與 1&1 達成的一項非常長期的協議和合作夥伴關係。它成立長達18年。作為其中的一部分,我們將有效地為 1&1 目前價值 1300 萬歐元的 1&1 客戶提供流量,無論 1&1 不會在哪裡建立其網路。因此,從這個角度來看,我們需要我們的頻譜來回答您的問題。這就是您應該期待的。經濟上?

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So first of all, obviously, we are going to start the migration of 1&1. We're going -- we'll start the migration of customers to our networks in fall this year. So you shouldn't expect a significant impact of the national roaming agreement in FY '25. It will be helpful, of course, but especially on the cash flow front, as we also have to invest into some additional CapEx in order to support the on-boarding.

    是的。首先,顯然我們要開始 1&1 的遷移。我們將於今年秋季開始將客戶遷移到我們的網路。因此,您不應預期 25 財年的國家漫遊協議會產生重大影響。當然,這會有所幫助,但尤其是在現金流方面,因為我們還必須投資一些額外的資本支出來支持入職。

  • It will be neutral on the cash flow side. So think about a revenue and EBITDA impact in the high double-digit million range and then a similar amount of CapEx that we will require. And then, of course, as the on-boarding is completed going into FY '26, it will be a favorable tailwind to our results. But again, for FY '25, not enough to counter the impact from the MDUs for sure.

    現金流方面將是中性的。因此,請考慮高達數百萬美元範圍內的收入和 EBITDA 影響,以及我們需要的類似金額的資本支出。當然,隨著進入 26 財年的入職工作完成,這將成為我們業績的有利推動力。但同樣,對於 25 財年來說,這肯定不足以抵消 MDU 的影響。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Yes. And that will -- it will take time to drive the migration. So in terms of service revenue headline, it's really out to back end of -- for it to be really material.

    是的。這將需要時間來推動遷移。因此,就服務收入標題而言,它確實是非常重要的。

  • James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

    James Edmund Ratzer - Europe Team Head of Communications Services & Analyst

  • Got it. And can I just ask you -- I'm asking, you gave a pretty clear message on spectrum there, but would you be open to any RAN sharing agreement with them?

    知道了。我可以問你嗎——我問,你在光譜方面給出了非常明確的信息,但你願意接受與他們的任何 RAN 共享協議嗎?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • As I said, we are really happy with the position we are at today, and we don't expect any changes to that. As you know, we are busy implementing the agreement we have now and opening up our network.

    正如我所說,我們對今天的處境非常滿意,我們預計不會有任何改變。如你所知,我們正忙於執行現有協議並開放我們的網路。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Let's not forget that through the NRA, we have given 1&1 a very long-term planning security, and I think that's a significant contribution.

    我們不要忘記,透過 NRA,我們為 1&1 提供了非常長期的規劃保障,我認為這是一個重大貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question this morning comes from Robert Grindle at Deutsche Numis.

    今天早上的下一個問題來自 Deutsche Numis 的 Robert Grindle。

  • Robert James Grindle - Research Analyst

    Robert James Grindle - Research Analyst

  • My question is about your nonconsolidated but co-controlled assets, please. Liberty is transferring at Ziggo stake to a Benelux holdco. Is that interesting at all to you guys? And then the very considerable Oak Holdings stake, I think you're still at 60%. Is it still the plan to drop to 50% when other deals are closed perhaps? Or is there a different future there?

    我的問題是關於你們非合併但共同控制的資產。 Liberty 正在將 Ziggo 股份轉讓給比荷盧經濟聯盟控股公司。你們覺得很有趣嗎?然後,Oak Holdings 的股份非常可觀,我認為仍然是 60%。也許當其他交易完成時,是否仍計劃降至 50%?或是那裡有不同的未來嗎?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Robert. Luka was directly involved, may take Vantage side. On the Netherlands, we are pleased with where we are. In a nutshell, strong asset in a good market there. We have just reorganized the way we manage our noncontrolled assets. You may have noticed that we have set up a new division called Vodafone Investment. And this is because I really believe that we need to manage those assets differently from the controlled one.

    謝謝你,羅伯特。盧卡直接參與其中,可能會站在 Vantage 這邊。在荷蘭,我們對目前的情況感到滿意。簡而言之,良好的市場中有強大的資產。我們剛剛重組了管理非受控資產的方式。您可能已經注意到,我們成立了一個名為沃達豐投資的新部門。這是因為我確實相信我們需要以不同於受控資產的方式來管理這些資產。

  • We have set up a very light team of financial and operational experts that will be entirely focused on governance, not just for Vodafone Ziggo, but for the entire portfolio of investments, which, of course, includes Vantage, but also include satellite and other things, which are less well known. And I think this will really allow us to drive the best value creation for these assets.

    我們已經建立了一個由財務和營運專家組成的非常精簡的團隊,他們將完全專注於治理,不僅是沃達豐 Ziggo,而且是整個投資組合,當然包括 Vantage,還包括衛星和其他東西,這些不太為人所知。我認為這確實能讓我們為這些資產創造最佳價值。

  • But as far as Vodafone Ziggo is concerned, happy with our position today, if I'm thinking if you want, M&A, my focus is going to be in completing the 3 deals we have announced in Europe in the last year.

    但就沃達豐 Ziggo 而言,對我們今天的立場感到滿意,如果我想,如果你願意的話,併購,我的重點將是完成我們去年在歐洲宣布的 3 筆交易。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • And perhaps on Vantage, thanks for mentioning this or asking the question because I think it's really a great example of the value crystallization potential that we have in the portfolio of Vodafone investments. As you know, we have already received proceeds of EUR 5.4 billion for the disposals that we have done so far at a very attractive 26x EBITDA multiple.

    也許在 Vantage 上,感謝您提到這一點或提出問題,因為我認為這確實是我們在沃達豐投資組合中具有價值結晶潛力的一個很好的例子。如您所知,我們迄今為止進行的處置已經獲得了 54 億歐元的收益,其 EBITDA 倍數非常有吸引力,達到 26 倍。

  • We still stand at 60% of shareholding in Oak Holdings. However, we remain in constructive dialogue with the private equity consortium that is joining us in Oak Holdings. So we still see an opportunity to further sell down shares. There is no reason why we should stay at 60%. So this is work in progress and certainly, a very good value crystallization opportunity for us.

    我們仍持有Oak Holdings 60%的股權。然而,我們仍在與橡樹控股(Oak Holdings)加入我們的私募股權財團保持建設性對話。因此,我們仍然看到進一步拋售股票的機會。我們沒有理由維持在 60%。因此,這是一項正在進行的工作,當然,對我們來說,這是一個非常好的價值結晶機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Jakob Bluestone at BNPP Exane.

    下一個問題來自 BNPP Exane 的 Jakob Bluestone。

  • Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst

    Jakob Bluestone - Research Analyst

  • I had a question on your free cash flow bridge. You're guiding for free cash flow in FY '25 of at least EUR 2.4 billion versus the EUR 2.6 billion you did in FY '25. And I was just hoping you could help us understand what's kind of the bridge between those two.

    我對你們的自由現金流橋有疑問。您預計 25 財年的自由現金流至少為 24 億歐元,而 25 財年為 26 億歐元。我只是希望你能幫助我們了解兩者之間的橋樑是什麼樣的。

  • Your EBITDA you said will be sort of roughly flat at EUR 11 billion on a pro forma basis. I think you said back in March, your CapEx would be flat as well. I guess you had a tax one-off in Germany, which maybe explains some of the difference. But if you can maybe just help us understand what drives the slightly lower free cash flow in FY '25.

    您所說的 EBITDA 預計將大致持平於 110 億歐元。我想您早在三月就說過,您的資本支出也會持平。我猜你在德國有一次性稅收,這也許可以解釋一些差異。但如果您能幫助我們了解是什麼導致 25 財年自由現金流略有下降。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Well, first of all, I mean, I perfectly appreciate that there are lots of moving parts and puts and takes and complexities that have been arising from the discontinued operations situation. And first of all, our IR team remains fully available to lead you through all of the details of the bridge, and we have also included, I would say, a pretty useful work that outlines the major parts of it in the back half of our presentation.

    嗯,首先,我的意思是,我完全理解由於停產而產生的許多移動部件、放置和取出以及複雜性。首先,我們的 IR 團隊隨時可以引導您了解橋樑的所有細節,而且我想說,我們還包括了一份非常有用的工作,在我們的後半部分概述了它的主要部分。

  • When you talk about the free cash flow in particular, so EUR 2.6 billion and the EUR 2.4 billion, there are two elements there. One is obviously FX and currencies with EUR 100 million. And the other one is the fact that we do not expect to continue to recharge about EUR 100 million of below-the-line recharges to Spain after the completion of the disposal. That explains the difference and for the rest and details, very happy for you to reach out to IR.

    當您特別談論自由現金流時,即 26 億歐元和 24 億歐元,其中有兩個要素。其中之一顯然是外匯和一億歐元的貨幣。另外一個是,我們預計處置完成後不會繼續向西班牙充值約1億歐元的線下儲值。這解釋了其中的差異,對於其餘部分和細節,非常高興您與 IR 聯繫。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • From a substance perspective, beyond the sort of like-for-like reconciliations, Jakob, I think one important point is worth noting, which is we are guiding to at least EUR 2.4 billion. So slightly different from around, which is actually the EBITDA guidance. So see this as the bottom end of what we expect to achieve. So FY '24, like-for-like, EUR 2.4 billion, FY '25 from EUR 2.4 billion upwards potentially.

    從實質角度來看,除了類似的對帳之外,雅各布,我認為有一點值得注意,那就是我們的目標是至少 24 億歐元。與周圍的情況略有不同,這實際上是 EBITDA 指導。因此,將此視為我們期望實現的目標的底端。因此,24 財年年比為 24 億歐元,25 財年可能為 24 億歐元。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • And last but not least, in that ambition for growth, let's not forget that we are working through a EUR 500 million negative impact from the MDUs, which consists of the EUR 400 million that we have talked about previously, plus an additional EUR 100 million working capital drag. So that's something that you should have in the back of your mind, at least as well.

    最後但並非最不重要的一點是,在實現成長的雄心壯誌中,我們不要忘記,我們正在努力解決MDU 帶來的5 億歐元的負面影響,其中包括我們之前討論過的4 億歐元,加上另外的1 億歐元營運資金拖累。所以,至少你也應該牢記這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Maurice Patrick at Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的莫里斯·帕特里克。

  • Maurice Graham Patrick - MD

    Maurice Graham Patrick - MD

  • If I could ask a question on the central function, always think it's an exciting area to ask about. Really is a question, to what extent the costs in the central function can flex up and down with the revenues. I think in your response to Jakob's question just now, you talked about EUR 100 million or so headwind at the central level due to the timing of Spain being deconsolidated with the sale to Zegona. But you presumably in 12 months' time, you've got the same thing taking place at Swisscom, playing, I think it's EUR 350 million a year. So if you could give some thoughts on the outlook for revenues and costs in the central function for FY '25 and '26, it would be very helpful.

    如果我可以問一個關於中心功能的問題,我總是認為這是一個令人興奮的領域。真正的問題是,中央職能部門的成本可以在多大程度上隨著收入的變化而上下波動。我想您剛才在回答雅各布的問題時談到了中央層面大約1億歐元的逆風,因為西班牙在出售給澤戈納的同時被解散。但大概在 12 個月的時間裡,瑞士電信也會發生同樣的事情,我想每年的收入將達到 3.5 億歐元。因此,如果您能對 25 財年和 26 財年中央職能部門的收入和成本前景提出一些想法,這將非常有幫助。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Sure. I'll give you the bigger picture, but just going back to the point that Luka was mentioning earlier, that was an accounting effect as opposed to what really matters, which is the EBITDA impact, if you want, coming from central functions, to your point, between revenues and cost.

    當然。我會給你一個更大的圖景,但回到盧卡之前提到的一點,這是一種會計效應,而不是真正重要的東西,即 EBITDA 影響,如果你願意的話,來自中央職能部門,你的觀點是在收入和成本之間。

  • We don't expect any stranded costs or negative EBITDA impact from the evolution of our shared operations going forward. And this is effectively driven by 2 reasons, which is why I was keen to explain this.

    我們預期未來共享業務的發展不會產生任何滯留成本或負面 EBITDA 影響。這實際上是由兩個原因驅動的,這就是為什麼我熱衷於解釋這一點。

  • The first is, as you know, we have changed the way we're on our shared operations. We have made them commercial. What does that mean? That means that with the Vodafone market, let alone the external partners, we now have MSAs in place for markets buying shared operations services, which means we will track very closely volumes and unitary costs. And the control on this dynamic will allow us to scale up and down the cost with the demand, whether it's internal demand or external demand indeed from our new partners.

    首先,如您所知,我們改變了共享營運的方式。我們已經將它們商業化了。這意味著什麼?這意味著,透過沃達豐市場,更不用說外部合作夥伴,我們現在已經為購買共享營運服務的市場制定了 MSA,這意味著我們將非常密切地追蹤數量和統一成本。對這種動態的控制將使我們能夠根據需求擴大或縮小成本,無論是內部需求還是來自我們新合作夥伴的外部需求。

  • Keep in mind that these operations are very flexible in nature. Over 90% of the employees of our shared operations are in locations where effectively we have a very efficient cost bases and also flexibility.

    請記住,這些操作本質上非常靈活。我們共享營運部門超過 90% 的員工所在的地區實際上擁有非常有效率的成本基礎和靈活性。

  • If we think about actually in the last -- we said we have completed 5,000 roles reduction in the last year as a result of new -- you remember, 11,000 role reduction plan. Well, of these 5,000, over 50% were actually in shared operations. So we have plenty of flexibility, and we will track this flexibility to our commercial model.

    如果我們實際上考慮一下,去年我們說過,由於新的削減計劃,去年我們已經完成了 5,000 個職位的削減,你還記得,11,000 個職位的削減計劃。那麼,在這 5,000 家公司中,超過 50% 實際上是在共享營運中。所以我們有足夠的靈活性,我們將把這種靈活性追蹤到我們的商業模式中。

  • The second reason is what you mentioned, which is we're starting this journey in Italy and Spain with Zegona and Swisscom buying services from our shared operations of EUR 460 million. And we have a range of contracts of varying duration, up to 5 years that will give us plenty of time to see how our partners plan to evolve their demand so that we can respond flexibly.

    第二個原因就是你提到的,我們正在義大利和西班牙開始這趟旅程,Zegona 和 Swisscom 從我們價值 4.6 億歐元的共享業務中購買服務。我們擁有一系列不同期限的合同,最長可達 5 年,這將使我們有足夠的時間了解合作夥伴計劃如何發展他們的需求,以便我們能夠靈活應對。

  • So we do not see any negative coming from this. We actually do see and it's in Luka's productivity targets, more efficiencies opportunities because she operations through scale and automation, and AI now coming into line will drive us productivity opportunities.

    因此,我們認為這不會帶來任何負面影響。事實上,我們確實在盧卡的生產力目標中看到了更多的效率機會,因為她透過規模和自動化進行運營,而現在的人工智慧將為我們帶來生產力機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from David Wright at Bank of America, Merrill Lynch.

    下一個問題來自美銀美林銀行的戴維‧賴特 (David Wright)。

  • David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

    David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

  • I hope you can hear me well. I might focus and follow up a little on Robert's question, please, just on the Vantage stake. Obviously, when I look at the dividend received, it's not hugely efficient versus your cost of debt on what could be the proceeds. But just on the ability to sell down the Vantage stake, the obvious question is, what would you use the money for? Your balance sheet is in very good shape. You already have a significant buyback planned. Is this the potential plug for more German fiber?

    我希望你能好好聽我說話。我可能會注意並跟進羅伯特的問題,只是關於 Vantage 股份。顯然,當我查看收到的股息時,與您可能獲得的收益的債務成本相比,它的效率並不高。但就出售 Vantage 股份的能力而言,一個明顯的問題是,你會用這筆錢做什麼?您的資產負債表狀況非常良好。您已經計劃了大規模的回購。這是更多德國光纖的潛在插頭嗎?

  • And if I might just -- I had to ask. And if I might just add -- a little add on. The buyback, I know Spain is due to complete imminently according to your presentation. Does the buyback follow imminently the Spain proceeds?

    如果可以的話——我不得不問。如果我可以補充一點的話——補充一點。根據您的介紹,我知道西班牙的回購即將完成。回購是否緊接在西班牙收益之後?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • I'll let Luka take on the buybacks. But I need to -- you needed to ask David and I needed to answer.

    我會讓盧卡承擔回購工作。但我需要──你需要問大衛,我需要回答。

  • David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

    David Antony Wright - Head of Developed EMEA European Telecoms Equity Research and Director

  • Full year results. It's an anniversary. We have to...

    全年業績。這是周年紀念日。我們必須...

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • The answer on German fiber is no. We are happy with where we are, with our cable network, where if you've looked at our presentation, we have increased the segments in Germany by 30%. And this is within our normal CapEx envelope, and we continue to increase. We actually saw really good dynamics in customer satisfaction.

    德國纖維的答案是否定的。我們對我們的有線電視網絡現狀感到滿意,如果您看過我們的演示,我們已經將德國的部分增加了 30%。這在我們正常的資本支出範圍內,而且我們還在持續增加中。事實上,我們看到了客戶滿意度的良好動態。

  • In Germany, we may want to talk about later. And of course, we have the OXG rollout now ongoing in 6 cities in Germany, including Düsseldorf and [Duisburg]. So we are happy with where we are. But on what do we do with the money and buybacks?

    在德國,我們可能會想稍後再談。當然,我們目前正在德國 6 個城市推出 OXG,其中包括杜塞爾多夫和[杜伊斯堡]。所以我們對目前的情況感到滿意。但我們用這些錢和回購做什麼呢?

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • First of all, on the share buybacks, just to be very clear, you are right. We expect to receive final approvals imminently, and we would intend to launch the share buyback and broadly after that. So this all follows on the heels of each other. So that's very clear.

    首先,關於股票回購,要非常明確的是,你是對的。我們預計很快就會獲得最終批准,並且我們打算在此後廣泛啟動股票回購。所以這一切都是緊接著的。所以這非常清楚。

  • And in terms of Vantage. So as Margherita has said, no, we won't invest it in fiber. And that would leave, obviously, the potential for either additional shareholder returns or additional deleveraging or additional value-accretive investments, let's say, in business B2B opportunity. So -- but with whatever we do, it will be focused on driving the right returns for our shareholders, and we will make that choice once we succeed.

    就 Vantage 而言。正如瑪格麗塔所說,不,我們不會將其投資於纖維。顯然,這將留下額外股東回報或額外去槓桿化或額外加值投資的潛力,比方說,在商業 B2B 機會方面。因此,無論我們做什麼,都會專注於為股東帶來適當的回報,一旦成功,我們就會做出這樣的選擇。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question this morning comes from Ottavio Adorisio at Bernstein.

    今天早上的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的奧塔維奧·阿多里西奧。

  • Ottavio Adorisio - Research Analyst

    Ottavio Adorisio - Research Analyst

  • I have & question and a couple of clarifications. The question is on the on the Vodafone investments. You set up today -- through the question, you talked extensively about Vantage towers. My question is mostly on the others. And the question is to Margherita, who is going to be the ultimate owners of this infrastructure? Do you reckon this 50-50 JV will stay forever? Or like you do in the U.K., you're willing to take full ownership of the assets?

    我有疑問和一些澄清。問題是關於沃達豐的投資。您今天提出的問題中,您廣泛談論了 Vantage 塔樓。我的問題主要是針對其他人。瑪格麗塔的問題是,誰將成為該基礎設施的最終所有者?您認為這個 50-50 的合資企業會永遠存在嗎?或者像您在英國一樣,您願意完全擁有資產?

  • The clarification is mostly on the guidance. How much on the free cash flow guidance, including the Swisscom payments? And how much will be for this year and how much will be for FY '26? And the other one is on -- basically on free cash flow. You guide still on adjusted free cash flow. If you can tell us what you expect from restructuring integration costs for next year, considered to be booked below the line?

    澄清主要是在指南上。自由現金流指導(包括瑞士電信付款)有多少?今年和 26 財年分別是多少?另一個是——基本上就是自由現金流。您仍然指導調整後的自由現金流。您能否告訴我們您對明年的重組整合成本的預期(考慮在線下預訂)?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Okay. I hope I have noted everything, Ottavio. I'll start and then hand over to Luka for the integration and restructuring costs. I think your question on the -- you mentioned owning 100% in Vodafone investments. Are you referring to an asset in particular in the portfolio?

    好的。我希望我已經記下了一切,奧塔維奧。我將開始,然後將整合和重組成本移交給盧卡。我認為你的問題是——你提到擁有 100% 的沃達豐投資。您指的是投資組合中的特定資產嗎?

  • Ottavio Adorisio - Research Analyst

    Ottavio Adorisio - Research Analyst

  • I was looking at the slides and I can see there are tons of 50-50 JVs not consolidated. And because some of this is infrastructure that you're going to use for a long time, so my question is who's going to be the ultimate owner of the assets? It's just, do you run -- or do you plan to buy back at some stage?

    我查看了幻燈片,發現有大量 50-50 家合資企業未合併。因為其中一些是您將長期使用的基礎設施,所以我的問題是誰將成為這些資產的最終所有者?只是,你會跑步──還是打算在某個階段回購?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • No, as -- if it's sort of the broader picture, again, we have just reorganized splitting control from noncontrolled. And that tells you that we intend to maintain the portfolio as noncontrolled. And if I think about the list that are in there, there are plenty of good reasons for it to stay this way in the future. So don't expect -- I'm trying to think about -- the list is very long. But if I think about Vantage or if I think about Vodafone Ziggo, I don't see us moving into owning 100% of these assets in the future.

    不,如果從更廣闊的角度來看,我們只是重新組織了控制權與非控制權的分離。這告訴您,我們打算將投資組合維持為非受控狀態。如果我考慮一下其中的列表,就會發現有很多充分的理由讓它在未來保持這種狀態。所以不要指望——我正在努力思考——這個清單很長。但如果我考慮 Vantage 或沃達豐 Ziggo,我認為我們未來不會 100% 擁有這些資產。

  • As far as also just to take the free cash flows off the table at the payment level, of course, we have no recharges to Swisscom in FY '25. So clearly, the guidance is not affected by this, and we have not issued guidance yet for FY '26. But as you have seen from the deal announcement, the Swisscom is effectively taking over the same perimeter of recharges that were happening with Vodafone Italy. So no major changes expected from that in FY '26. Luka?

    當然,就支付層面的自由現金流而言,我們在 25 財年沒有向 Swisscom 充值。顯然,該指導意見不受此影響,而且我們尚未發布 26 財年的指導意見。但正如您從交易公告中看到的那樣,瑞士電信實際上正在接管與義大利沃達豐相同的充值範圍。因此,預計 26 財年不會有重大變化。盧卡?

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Perhaps, just nevertheless, coming back on FY '25, what we have mentioned in our release is that outside of our guidance, we are obviously expecting a continued cash flow contribution from discontinued operations in Italy, mainly of EUR 400 million, but that is outside of our guidance and would come on top.

    也許,無論如何,回到 25 財年,我們在新聞稿中提到的是,在我們的指導之外,我們顯然預計意大利已終止業務將持續貢獻現金流,主要為 4 億歐元,但那是超越我們的指導,並且會名列前茅。

  • In terms of the restructuring, and if I may add spectrum payments that stand between the adjusted free cash flow and what I would call the real free cash flow of the company for FY '25, I would see in aggregate a similar amount as we have seen in FY '24. Restructuring will go slightly up on the spectrum side, broadly similar numbers as I -- as we have had in FY '24, making up in aggregate for roughly the same amount.

    就重組而言,如果我可以添加介於調整後的自由現金流和我所說的公司 25 財年實際自由現金流之間的頻譜付款,我會看到總計與我們相似的金額見於24 財年。重組將在頻譜方面略有上升,與我的數字大致相似——正如我們在 24 財年所做的那樣,總體上彌補了大致相同的金額。

  • Ottavio Adorisio - Research Analyst

    Ottavio Adorisio - Research Analyst

  • Margherita, my question was not about Ziggo and Vantage, but was on the JV with Altice. So who's going to be the ultimate owner of that asset?

    Margherita,我的問題不是關於 Ziggo 和 Vantage,而是關於與 Altice 的合資企業。那麼誰將成為該資產的最終所有者呢?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • I see. I see. Sorry. OXG, we don't see any reason to build fiber on balance sheet as we were discussing with David earlier. In terms of -- so we expect the 50-50 relationship to continue as it is. We have a long way ahead, which is a 6-year build to give us 7 million households, and you shouldn't expect us to make any changes there in that time frame.

    我懂了。我懂了。對不起。 OXG,正如我們之前與 David 討論的那樣,我們認為沒有任何理由在資產負債表上建立光纖。就這一點而言,我們預計 50-50 的關係將繼續保持現狀。我們還有很長的路要走,需要 6 年的時間才能為我們提供 700 萬個家庭,你不應該指望我們會在這段時間內做出任何改變。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Georgios Ierodiaconou at Citigroup.

    下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Georgios Ierodiaconou。

  • Georgios Ierodiaconou - Director

    Georgios Ierodiaconou - Director

  • I just wanted to focus a bit on OpEx. And I think Luka, you made a comment earlier about service revenue may ease in some markets, but the cost pressures will also start to reverse. You gave quite a bit of detail around energy. Is it possible to also maybe give us some indications around labor costs within the new perimeter in Europe last year versus this year and what your expectations are, whether there are any pending negotiations to still be finalized?

    我只是想稍微關註一下營運支出。我認為盧卡,您之前曾評論過,某些市場的服務收入可能會有所緩解,但成本壓力也將開始逆轉。您提供了有關能源的相當多的細節。是否有可能向我們提供一些有關去年歐洲新周邊地區與今年相比的勞動力成本的信息,以及您的期望是什麼,是否還有任何懸而未決的談判尚未完成?

  • And maybe if I could ask one clarification around the additional EUR 300 million of cost savings. I just wanted to clarify within that, you're not including any flexing of cost around central functions from any potential changes in the contracts with other customers.

    也許我可以要求對額外節省 3 億歐元的成本進行澄清。我只是想澄清一下,您沒有包括與其他客戶的合約中任何潛在變化而導致的圍繞中心功能的任何成本彈性。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So let me take this. So first of all, year-over-year, you're absolutely right. I mean energy will be a tailwind from an OpEx perspective. Last year, we had in Europe, in the new parameter, so excluding Italy and Spain, roughly EUR 200 million of headwind and about 80% of that will unwind in FY '25.

    是的。所以讓我接受這個。所以首先,逐年來看,你是絕對正確的。我的意思是,從營運支出的角度來看,能源將成為順風車。去年,在新的參數中,我們在歐洲遇到了大約 2 億歐元的逆風,其中不包括義大利和西班牙,其中約 80% 將在 25 財年消除。

  • In terms of the rest, labor cost, we are actually not facing a significant headwind as far as we can see. And so this should remain actually quite constructive. Unlike, for example, some others in the market in Germany, we have an existing 2-year deal with the labor unions. So in that respect, our salary levels for 2025 are set already, and that's typically the largest part of where you can expect some moderation. In other countries, the inflation rates have come down and hence, the salary rounds are also pretty moderate. So this is not going to be a major uncertainty, so that has moderated.

    就剩下的勞動成本而言,據我們所知,我們實際上並沒有面臨重大阻力。因此,這實際上應該仍然很有建設性。與德國市場上的其他一些公司不同,我們與工會簽訂了為期兩年的協議。因此,從這方面來說,我們 2025 年的薪資水平已經確定,這通常是您可以預期適度調整的最大部分。在其他國家,通貨膨脹率已經下降,因此薪資水準也相當溫和。因此,這不會成為一個重大的不確定性,因此這種情況已經有所緩解。

  • And then in terms of the EUR 300 million and central functions, well, we are looking for efficiencies and productivities across the board. That, of course, also includes the central functions, but that is not tied to a loss of opportunity, so to say, in terms of the business that we are covering because Margherita has said very rightfully and that we are indeed covered with our existing relationships with Zegona and Swisscom.

    然後就 3 億歐元和中央職能而言,我們正在尋求全面的效率和生產力。當然,這也包括核心職能,但這並不意味著機會的喪失,也就是說,就我們所涵蓋的業務而言,因為瑪格麗塔說得非常正確,而且我們確實涵蓋了我們現有的業務與 Zegona 和 Swisscom 的關係。

  • But of course, we still have an ambition across the board across all entities, including the group functions to drive for further efficiencies through simplification, standardization, leveraging technology, AI and so on. And we're very busy working on that. It's obviously an area that I'm passionate about also given my background coming from the software industry.

    但當然,我們仍然對所有實體抱持全面的雄心,包括透過簡化、標準化、利用技術、人工智慧等來推動集團職能進一步提高效率。我們正忙於這方面的工作。鑑於我來自軟體產業的背景,這顯然是我熱衷的一個領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have time for one more question this morning from Andrew Lee at Goldman Sachs.

    今天早上我們還有時間回答高盛安德魯李的一個問題。

  • Andrew J. Lee - Equity Analyst

    Andrew J. Lee - Equity Analyst

  • I just wanted to maybe bring us back to your -- right to the start in your answer to Emmet's question at the beginning about kind of trends through '25 and into '26. You made some pretty clear and helpful commentary around the puts and takes and temporary factors from '25 going into '26 and said '26 should see a step up, which obviously, we would expect given the cable TV headwinds in FY '25.

    我只是想讓我們回到你一開始就回答了 Emmet 的問題,即從 25 年到 26 年的趨勢。您對從25 年到26 年的看跌期權和臨時因素做了一些非常明確和有用的評論,並表示26 年應該會有所上升,顯然,考慮到25 財年有線電視的逆風,我們預計會出現這種情況。

  • So I just wanted to try and better understand how you're thinking about the underlying growth across the group. I think if we adjust for the 1&1 contract, adjust for the energy tailwinds in FY '25, adjust for the cable TV headwind and try and get to an underlying sense of what you're guiding to on EBITDA growth for FY '25, it looks like around 3% to 4%. So how are you thinking about the trajectory of underlying EBITDA growth? Do you think that improves into FY '26?

    所以我只是想嘗試更好地了解你們如何看待整個集團的潛在成長。我認為,如果我們調整 1&1 合同,調整 25 財年的能源順風,調整有線電視逆風,並嘗試了解您對 25 財年 EBITDA 增長的指導,那麼看起來大約是3%到4%。那麼您如何看待基本 EBITDA 成長軌跡?您認為 26 財年情況會有所改善嗎?

  • And perhaps if I might ask a bit more specifically, obviously, Germany is absolutely the heart of that. Do you think we've reached a sustainable level at 1.5% organic service revenue growth this quarter ex the cable TV? Like how do you think group trends on an underlying basis progress from '25 into '26 in specifically Germany?

    也許如果我可以問得更具體一點,顯然,德國絕對是其中的核心。您認為本季(不包括有線電視)有機服務收入成長 1.5% 的可持續水準是否已達到?例如,您如何看待從 25 世紀到 26 世紀(特別是德國)的整體趨勢的發展?

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Maybe cover the prospect for Germany, but maybe you start with the building blocks.

    也許涵蓋德國的前景,但也許你從建造模組開始。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Yes. And just since we are almost out of time, I just want to confirm that I think you have highlighted the right building blocks. But what does that translate into? It's actually that we will likely see a U shape of our performance in FY '25 because the headwinds, in particular, on the MDU front are mainly going to hit us in terms of year-over-year growth impact in the first half year as this impact will now magnify in Q1 and even further in Q2, and we will also see the lapping of our German price rises in fixed broadband in Q2 and then the positive impacts like 1&1.

    是的。由於我們的時間已經不多了,我只想確認一下,我認為您已經強調了正確的建置模組。但這意味著什麼呢?事實上,我們可能會看到 25 財年的業績呈 U 形,因為尤其是 MDU 方面的逆風將主要對我們上半年的同比增長影響造成影響,因為這種影響現在將在第一季放大,甚至在第二季進一步擴大,我們還將看到德國固定寬頻價格在第二季上漲,然後是1 和1 等正面影響。

  • I would add to this also the step-up in performance that we still expect to see in Vodafone business as we are now putting additional investments in as we see the market opportunity. We expect the pipeline buildup that we're already witnessing then to translate from the second half year into further growth opportunities that obviously will carry us also into FY '26 and going forward. Therefore, you should see a U-shape in terms of the growth performance in FY '25.

    我還想補充一點,我們仍然希望在沃達豐業務中看到業績的提升,因為我們現在看到了市場機會,正在投入額外的投資。我們預計下半年我們已經見證的管道建設將轉化為進一步的成長機會,這顯然也將帶我們進入 26 財年及未來。因此,您應該會看到 25 財年的成長表現呈現 U 型。

  • And then once we have the impact from the MDUs annualized and out of the way, then clearly, we can see the full underlying strength of the growth coming to fruition.

    然後,一旦我們得到了按年度計算的 MDU 的影響,那麼我們就可以清楚地看到成長的全部潛在力量即將實現。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • And in terms of if you want longer-term prospects, so pleased with having underlying 1.5% in Q4. We now see this U-shape impacting Germany during this fiscal year. But clearly, our ambition has to be to accelerate and take our fair share of the market growth. It's in our hands. It's a good market where we have scale, a strong brand, strong networks. The new team has a big agenda for that, that we will deliver during FY '25.

    如果您想要長期前景,那麼對第四季度 1.5% 的潛在成長率感到非常滿意。我們現在看到這種 U 形在本財年對德國產生影響。但顯然,我們的目標必須是加速並在市場成長中佔據公平的份額。它在我們手中。這是一個很好的市場,我們擁有規模、強大的品牌和強大的網路。新團隊為此制定了一個宏偉的議程,我們將在 25 財年期間交付該議程。

  • If I think about maybe MDU transition we have covered, but in terms of actions, fixed versus mobile. On fixed, it's all going to be about cost pricing, commercial performance, as I said earlier, with the focus on CVM and our footprint. In mobile, what you will see happening is a continued switch between non-branded towards branded channels.

    如果我考慮我們可能已經涵蓋的 MDU 過渡,但就行動而言,固定與移動。在固定方面,正如我之前所說,一切都將取決於成本定價、商業性能,重點是 CVM 和我們的足跡。在行動領域,您將看到正在發生的事情是非品牌管道向品牌管道的持續切換。

  • It's fair to say that the market in Germany at the low end, particularly around the non-branded channels has been heating up recently. There is a lot of promotional aspects going on at the lower end of the market. You see this somehow reflected into our mobile net adds in the quarter and will continue into Q1.

    可以說,德國的低階市場,尤其是非品牌通路近來一直在升溫。低端市場正在進行許多促銷活動。您會看到這在某種程度上反映在我們本季的行動網路增加中,並將持續到第一季。

  • Our strategy there in terms of driving growth, as I said, will not change. We care about service revenue. We don't care about volumes. And we will continue to push our branded channels, supported by more investment in customer experience and brand itself in Germany, and looking forward to drive customer satisfaction even higher.

    正如我所說,我們在推動成長方面的策略不會改變。我們關心服務收入。我們不關心數量。我們將繼續推動我們的品牌管道,並在德國對客戶體驗和品牌本身進行更多投資的支持下,並期待進一步提高客戶滿意度。

  • This year was a year of stabilization, supported by the improved performance of the cable network, which we were very happy to have achieved. Despite the price increases, we need to drive this up to deliver higher underlying service revenue growth going forward into FY '26 in Germany and get the acceleration that Luka was talking about.

    今年是穩定的一年,有線網路效能的改善為我們提供了支持,我們對此感到非常高興。儘管價格上漲,我們仍需要推動這一成長,以在德國 26 財年實現更高的基礎服務收入成長,並實現盧卡所說的加速。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session this morning. And I would now like to hand back to Margherita for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。今天早上的問答環節到此結束。現在我想請瑪格麗塔發表結束語。

  • Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

    Margherita Della Valle - Group Chief Executive & Executive Director

  • Just thank you very much for all of you for being here for questions today, and looking forward to see you again in July for our Q1 results. Thank you.

    非常感謝大家今天在這裡提問,並期待在 7 月再次見到我們第一季的結果。謝謝。

  • Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

    Luka Mucic - Group CFO & Executive Director

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。