Valley National Bancorp (VLY) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 2023 Valley National Bancorp earnings conference call.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Valley National Bancorp 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to your host, Mr. Travis Lan.

現在我將把電話轉給主持人特拉維斯·蘭先生。

Please begin.

請開始。

Good morning, and welcome to Valley's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加 Valley 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

Presenting on behalf of Valley today are CEO, Ira Robbins; President, Tom Iadanza; and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Hagedorn.

今天代表 Valley 發言的是執行長 Ira Robbins；主席：湯姆·伊丹扎；和首席財務官邁克·哈格多恩。

Before we begin, I would like to make everyone aware that our quarterly earnings release and supporting documents can be found on our company website at valley.com. When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results.

在開始之前，我想讓大家知道，我們的季度收益發布和支持文件可以在我們公司的網站 Valley.com 上找到。在討論我們的結果時，我們指的是非公認會計準則衡量標準，這些衡量標準從報告的結果中排除了某些項目。

Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures.

請參閱今天的收益報告，以了解這些非公認會計準則指標的調節表。

Additionally, I would like to highlight slide 2 of our earnings presentation and remind you that comments made during this call may contain forward-looking statements relating to Valley National Bancorp and the banking industry.

此外，我想強調我們收益簡報的投影片 2，並提醒您，本次電話會議中發表的評論可能包含與 Valley National Bancorp 和銀行業相關的前瞻性聲明。

Valley encourages all participants to refer to our SEC filings, including those found on Forms 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K, for a complete discussion of forward-looking statements and the factors that could cause actual results to differ from those statements.

Valley 鼓勵所有參與者參考我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括表格 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 中的文件，以全面討論前瞻性陳述以及可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素聲明。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ira Robbins.

這樣，我會將電話轉給艾拉·羅賓斯。

Thank you, Travis.

謝謝你，崔維斯。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Valley reported net income of $72 million and earnings per share of $0.13. Exclusive of non-core items, including the one-time special FDIC assessment tied to the year's bank failures, adjusted net income and EPS were $116 million and $0.22, respectively.

2023年第四季，Valley報告淨利為7,200萬美元，每股收益為0.13美元。不包括非核心項目，包括與當年銀行倒閉有關的一次性特別 FDIC 評估，調整後淨利潤和每股收益分別為 1.16 億美元和 0.22 美元。

While I'm pleased with the quarter's balance sheet trends, I'm disappointed with the earnings and profitability metrics, which I will discuss shortly.

雖然我對本季的資產負債表趨勢感到滿意，但我對收益和獲利能力指標感到失望，我很快就會討論這些指標。

On the positive side, we made progress enhancing C&I growth while curtailing commercial real estate originations.

從積極的一面來看，我們在促進工商業成長的同時，在減少商業房地產開發方面取得了進展。

This enabled us to both accrete organic capital and reduce funding needs.

這使我們能夠累積有機資本並減少資金需求。

On the deposit side, we added a remarkable 14,000 net new consumer households and 8,000 net new commercial deposit relationships during the year.

存款方面，全年淨新增消費戶1.4萬戶，商業存款關係淨新增8,000戶，令人矚目。

This represents 4.5% growth in consumer households and 10.5% growth in commercial relationships from the same period a year ago.

這意味著與去年同期相比，消費者家庭成長了 4.5%，商業關係成長了 10.5%。

The ongoing addition of new deposit clients is critical as it directly relates to Valley's franchise value and our future earnings potential.

新存款客戶的不斷增加至關重要，因為它直接關係到 Valley 的特許經營價值和我們未來的盈利潛力。

Our new customer growth was broad-based across all of our geographies and, I might add, was undertaken against the backdrop of a difficult external environment, when mid-sized banks like Valley were too often front-page news.

我們的新客戶成長在我們所有地區都有廣泛的基礎，我可以補充一下，這是在外部環境困難的背景下進行的，當時像 Valley 這樣的中型銀行經常成為頭版新聞。

During the quarter, our new relationships helped to generate strong customer deposit inflows, which enabled us to significantly reduce our reliance on broker deposits.

在本季度，我們的新關係幫助產生了強勁的客戶存款流入，這使我們能夠顯著減少對經紀商存款的依賴。

While customer deposit inflows were exceptional, the organization-wide focus on ensuring a successful core conversion in October likely led us to take our eyes off the ball relative to deposit pricing.

雖然客戶存款流入量非常大，但整個組織範圍內對確保 10 月核心轉換成功的關注可能導致我們忽略存款定價。

There is no doubt that this negatively impacted net interest income during the quarter, and in a few minutes, Mike will illustrate some of the subsequent efforts that we have undertaken to manage these deposit costs going forward.

毫無疑問，這對本季的淨利息收入產生了負面影響，幾分鐘後，麥克將說明我們為管理未來這些存款成本而採取的一些後續努力。

From a strategic perspective, we are refocusing on holistic customer profitability, and we'll return to pricing deposits in consideration of balance and return, as opposed to just balance.

從策略角度來看，我們正在重新關注整體客戶獲利能力，我們將回歸考慮餘額和回報的存款定價，而不是只考慮餘額。

The quarter was also impacted by a few additional factors worth calling out.

該季度也受到一些值得關注的其他因素的影響。

First, waived service charges and proactive efforts taken to supplement customer support, both associated with our core conversion, weighed on quarterly earnings by an estimated amount equaling approximately $0.01 per share.

首先，服務費的免除和為補充客戶支援而採取的積極努力（兩者都與我們的核心轉換相關）對季度收益造成了影響，預計每股收益約為 0.01 美元。

These efforts were enacted out of an abundance of costs to ensure that our customer experience smoothly transitioned to our new system.

這些努力是花費大量成本來實現的，以確保我們的客戶體驗順利過渡到我們的新系統。

I'm pleased with the customer response to our core conversion, but acknowledge that some of the amounts of the excess support costs will persist in the first quarter as well.

我對客戶對我們的核心轉換的反應感到滿意，但承認一些超額支援成本也將在第一季持續存在。

Secondly, our provision was partially elevated as a result of a loan charge-off in our commercial premium finance business.

其次，由於商業保費金融業務的貸款沖銷，我們的撥備增加。

The after-tax impact of the associated provision was approximately $0.01 per share as well.

相關撥備的稅後影響也約為每股 0.01 美元。

This business line has approximately $275 million in outstanding balances, and we have an agreement in place to sell this business and a portion of the outstanding loans at what is expected to be a modest premium during the first quarter of 2024.

該業務線的未償餘額約為 2.75 億美元，我們已達成協議，將在 2024 年第一季以適度溢價出售該業務和部分未償貸款。

While this quarter's earnings are not satisfactory, I continue to believe that our strategic progress over the last few years positions us well in the evolving banking landscape.

儘管本季的收益並不令人滿意，但我仍然相信，我們過去幾年的策略進展使我們在不斷發展的銀行業格局中處於有利地位。

The financial consistency that we have achieved in support of this strategic evolution is evident in our tangible book value growth results.

我們為支持此策略演進而實現的財務一致性在我們有形的帳面價值成長結果中顯而易見。

Our stated tangible book value has increased 52% since 2018, which is more than double our proxy peers at 25%.

自 2018 年以來，我們的有形帳面價值成長了 52%，是我們代理同行 25% 的兩倍多。

Our value creation, as measured by tangible book value plus the dividends we have paid out, totals 90% since 2018, or more than 1.7 times our proxy peer median at 53%.

自 2018 年以來，我們的價值創造（以有形帳面價值加上我們已支付的股息來衡量）總計為 90%，是我們代理同業中位數（53%）的 1.7 倍以上。

From a balance sheet perspective, we have successfully transformed and diversified our funding base.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們已經成功地實現了融資基礎的轉型和多元化。

At the end of 2017, approximately 92% of our deposits were held in our branch network.

截至2017年底，我們約有92%的存款存放在我們的分行網路中。

By utilizing technology to expand our delivery channels and establishing new growth-oriented deposit verticals, we have reduced our reliance on branch deposits to just 65% today.

透過利用技術擴展我們的交付管道並建立新的以成長為導向的存款垂直領域，我們對分行存款的依賴已降至如今的 65%。

From a geographic perspective, 78% of our total deposits were in the northeast branches in 2017.

從地理來看，2017年，東北分行佔總存款的78%。

Today, that number is down to just 45% of total deposits.

如今，這一數字已降至僅佔總存款的 45%。

Our focus on geographic diversity and holistic relationship banking has benefited the asset side of our business as well.

我們對地域多樣性和整體關係銀行業務的關注也使我們業務的資產方面受益。

In 2017, 78% of our total loan portfolio was in New Jersey and New York.

2017 年，我們總貸款組合的 78% 位於新澤西州和紐約。

That composition has declined to just 55% today.

如今，這一比例已降至 55%。

In 2014, we entered Florida with the acquisition of First United Bank, which had just over $1 billion in loans.

2014 年，我們收購了第一聯合銀行 (First United Bank)，進入佛羅裡達州，該銀行的貸款剛超過 10 億美元。

Through additional strategic acquisitions and targeted organic efforts in this dynamic growth-oriented market, our Florida loan portfolio has expanded beyond $12 billion.

透過在這個充滿活力的成長型市場中進行額外的策略性收購和有針對性的有機努力，我們佛羅裡達州的貸款組合已擴大到超過 120 億美元。

There continues to be significant and diverse commercial growth opportunities available to us in Florida and across our entire footprint.

在佛羅裡達州以及我們的整個業務範圍內，我們繼續擁有重要且多樣化的商業成長機會。

The proactive evolution of our technology infrastructure is a less tangible but equally significant achievement for our organization.

我們技術基礎設施的主動發展對我們的組織來說是一項不太有形但同樣重要的成就。

We have recruited and developed a strong pool of technology talent, which has helped us to modernize our infrastructure and positions us to be on the leading edge of further advancements in the banking space.

我們招募和培養了一批強大的技術人才，這幫助我們實現了基礎設施的現代化，並使我們在銀行業領域的進一步發展中處於領先地位。

Our technology adoption has allowed us to scale the franchise with limited net headcount growth.

我們採用的技術使我們能夠在淨員工人數成長有限的情況下擴大特許經營規模。

Since 2018, we have nearly doubled our asset base from $32 billion to $61 billion, with a mere 17% increase in headcount.

自 2018 年以來，我們的資產基礎幾乎翻了一番，從 320 億美元增至 610 億美元，而員工人數僅增加了 17%。

Our recent core conversion aligned technology across our company and provides additional capabilities which we look forward to leveraging for our clients.

我們最近的核心轉換使整個公司的技術保持一致，並提供了我們期待為客戶利用的額外功能。

As we move past the conversion, we anticipate that further efficiencies will also emerge.

隨著我們完成轉換，我們預計還會出現進一步的效率。

We have also focused on enhancing a more uniform data infrastructure which allows us to react quickly and purposefully to changing market dynamics.

我們也致力於增強更統一的資料基礎設施，使我們能夠快速、有目的地對不斷變化的市場動態做出反應。

An internal AI working group has been established to help us determine appropriate potential use cases and to begin to execute on related opportunities.

內部人工智慧工作小組已經成立，以幫助我們確定適當的潛在用例並開始執行相關機會。

I now want to pivot to our strategic imperatives for the coming year.

我現在想談談我們來年的策略要務。

While none of these are new initiatives for Valley, we continue to believe that they will drive shareholder value over the long time.

雖然這些對 Valley 來說都不是新舉措，但我們仍然相信它們將長期推動股東價值。

First, we need to continue to drive core deposits to the bank.

首先，我們需要持續向銀行注入核心存款。

We have an incredible service-oriented branch network across our dynamic geographic footprint.

我們在充滿活力的地理足跡中擁有令人難以置信的以服務為導向的分支機構網絡。

We will generate more consumer and commercial activity out of these locations in 2024.

2024 年，我們將在這些地點產生更多的消費者和商業活動。

As the curve increasingly normalizes, we will further leverage the existing specialty niches that we have established and will build on our momentum for the second half of 2023.

隨著曲線日益正常化，我們將進一步利用我們已建立的現有專業利基，並在 2023 年下半年鞏固我們的勢頭。

Secondly, we will continue to de-emphasize investor commercial real estate lending in favor of C&I and owner-occupied CRE.

其次，我們將繼續不再強調投資者商業房地產貸款，轉而支持工商業和自住商業房地產。

We have restructured our commercial banking organization to better align expertise and experience with opportunities in our markets and business lines.

我們重組了商業銀行組織，以便更好地將專業知識和經驗與我們的市場和業務線中的機會結合。

Our enhanced treasury management capabilities and product offerings will support expanded wallet share among our customer base and help us to acquire new customers on the commercial side.

我們增強的資金管理能力和產品供應將支援擴大客戶群中的錢包份額，並幫助我們在商業方面獲得新客戶。

We have also adjusted our incentive programs in support of our deposit gathering and lending goals, which will drive further strategic alignment across the entire organization.

我們還調整了激勵計劃，以支持我們的存款和貸款目標，這將推動整個組織的進一步策略協調。

Finally, we will continue to grow our differentiated non-interest income businesses to diversify our revenue base.

最後，我們將繼續發展差異化的非利息收入業務，實現收入基礎多元化。

Through organic and acquisitive efforts, we have developed a robust suite of fee income products and service offerings for our growing customer base.

透過有機和收購的努力，我們為不斷成長的客戶群開發了一套強大的費用收入產品和服務產品。

The recent enhancements of our treasury management offering will help to offset certain capital market headwinds associated with lower swap-related revenues in 2024.

我們近期對資金管理服務的增強將有助於抵銷 2024 年互換相關收入下降所帶來的某些資本市場阻力。

The industry challenges of the past year confirm to me that we have undertaken the right long-term strategy, and I'm pleased with our ability to navigate this difficult year. 2024 will be about accelerating our progress towards achieving our strategic initiatives and improving our performance as we continue to mature.

過去一年的行業挑戰向我證實，我們採取了正確的長期策略，我對我們度過這困難的一年的能力感到滿意。 2024 年，我們將加快實現策略舉措的步伐，並在不斷成熟的過程中提高我們的業績。

As we execute on these initiatives, I want to reiterate that we continue to prioritize tangible book value growth.

當我們執行這些措施時，我想重申，我們繼續優先考慮有形帳面價值成長。

We believe that consistent growth in the industry will help us to improve our tangible book value will drive shareholder value over time, and we continue to expect to outperform our peers on this metric.

我們相信，產業的持續成長將有助於我們提高有形帳面價值，隨著時間的推移，將推動股東價值，並且我們繼續期望在這一指標上超越同行。

With that, I will turn the call over to Tom and Mike to discuss the quarter's growth and financial results.

接下來，我將把電話轉給湯姆和麥克，討論本季的成長和財務表現。

Thank you, Ira.

謝謝你，艾拉。

On slide 6, you can see the quarter's deposit trends.

在投影片 6 上，您可以看到該季度的存款趨勢。

Direct customer deposits increased approximately $1.6 billion to largely offset the significant $2.3 billion reduction in indirect deposits.

直接客戶存款增加約 16 億美元，很大程度上抵消了間接存款大幅減少的 23 億美元。

The meaningful reduction in our reliance on wholesale deposits was a key highlight of the quarter.

我們對批發存款的依賴大幅減少是本季的一大亮點。

We generated strong growth in our interest-bearing transaction accounts and were pleased by the slowdown in non-interest deposit runoff.

我們的計息交易帳戶實現了強勁增長，並對無息存款流失的放緩感到高興。

That said, we acknowledge that a competitive interest rate is one of the tools used to support our generation efforts during the quarter.

也就是說，我們承認有競爭力的利率是本季用於支持我們發電工作的工具之一。

Still, the pace of deposit cost increases slowed, and in a moment, Mike will outline efforts which we have undertaken to control interest expense on a go-forward basis.

儘管如此，存款成本成長的步伐仍然放緩，稍後，麥克將概述我們為未來控制利息支出所做的努力。

The next slide provides more detail on the composition of our deposit portfolio by delivery channel and business line.

下一張投影片按交付管道和業務線提供了有關我們存款組合構成的更多詳細資訊。

Traditional branch deposits increased approximately $600 million during the quarter.

本季傳統分行存款增加了約 6 億美元。

This growth was spread across our geographic footprint.

這種成長遍佈我們的地理足跡。

Our specialty niches increased approximately $1 billion as well, with key contributions from our online delivery channel and technology deposit team.

我們的專業利基市場也增加了約 10 億美元，其中主要貢獻來自我們的線上交付管道和技術存款團隊。

Turning to the next slide, you can see the continued diversity and granularity of our deposit base.

翻到下一張投影片，您可以看到我們存款基礎的持續多樣性和粒度。

No single commercial industry accounts for more than 7% of our deposits.

沒有任何一個商業行業占我們存款的比例超過7%。

Our government portfolio remains diversified across our footprint and is fully collateralized relative to state collateral requirements.

我們的政府投資組合在我們的業務範圍內保持多元化，並根據國家抵押要求提供充分抵押。

Slide 9 provides an overview of our loan growth and portfolio composition.

投影片 9 概述了我們的貸款成長和投資組合構成。

At the top left, you can see the proactive growth slowdown which occurred throughout 2023.

在左上角，您可以看到 2023 年全年出現的主動成長放緩。

Ultimately, we achieved a low end of the 7% to 9% growth target that we had laid out at the start of the year.

最終，我們實現了年初制定的 7% 至 9% 成長目標的下限。

Annualized loan growth slowed consistently as the year progressed, illustrating our ability to be responsive to changing market dynamics.

年化貸款成長隨著時間的推移持續放緩，這表明我們有能力應對不斷變化的市場動態。

The following slide breaks down our commercial real estate portfolio by collateral type and geography.

下面的幻燈片按抵押品類型和地理位置細分了我們的商業房地產投資組合。

As a reminder, we have an extremely granular loan portfolio, which is well diversified by collateral type and geography.

提醒一下，我們擁有極其精細的貸款組合，其抵押品類型和地理位置非常多樣化。

Our debt service coverage and loan-to-value metrics remain very attractive.

我們的償債覆蓋率和貸款價值指標仍然非常有吸引力。

We continue to closely monitor pools of maturing and resetting loans and believe that our borrowers are well positioned to absorb the pass-through of higher rates.

我們繼續密切監控到期和重置貸款池，並相信我們的借款人有能力吸收更高利率的傳導。

This reflects consistent underwriting discipline at conservative cap rate and significant stress testing efforts at origination.

這反映了保守資本化率下一致的承保紀律以及發起時的重大壓力測試工作。

The next two slides provide additional details around our multifamily and office portfolios.

接下來的兩張投影片提供了更多有關我們的多戶住宅和辦公室投資組合的詳細資訊。

From a multifamily perspective, our $8.8 billion portfolio includes $2 billion of co-op loans with an extremely low loan-to-value.

從多戶家庭的角度來看，我們 88 億美元的投資組合包括 20 億美元的合作公寓貸款，貸款價值比極低。

Exclusive of our co-op portfolio, our Manhattan multifamily exposure is a mere $600 million, which you can see in the last column of the table.

不包括我們的合作公寓投資組合，我們在曼哈頓的多戶住宅投資額僅為 6 億美元，您可以在表格的最後一欄中看到。

The remainder of the portfolio is well diversified across our footprint with low average loan sizes and attractive loan-to-value and debt service coverage ratio metrics.

投資組合的其餘部分在我們的業務範圍內實現了高度多元化，平均貸款規模較低，貸款價值比和償債覆蓋率指標頗具吸引力。

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike Hagedorn to provide additional insight into the quarter's financials.

接下來，我將把電話轉給邁克·哈格多恩 (Mike Hgedorn)，以提供有關本季度財務狀況的更多見解。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

Slide 13 illustrates Valley's recent quarterly net interest income and margin trends.

投影片 13 顯示了 Valley 最近的季度淨利息收入和利潤率趨勢。

While end-of-period non-interest-bearing deposits stabilized, the decline in non-interest deposits on an average basis weighed on quarterly net interest income by approximately $4 million.

雖然期末無息存款趨於穩定，但無息存款平均下降​​導致季度淨利息收入下降約 400 萬美元。

Throughout the quarter, we replaced maturing direct and indirect CDs with relatively high-yielding, interest-bearing transaction accounts and promotional retail CDs, which was the cost of our significant customer deposit growth during the quarter.

整個季度，我們用相對高收益、計息的交易帳戶和促銷零售存款單取代了到期的直接和間接存款單，這是我們本季客戶存款大幅成長的成本。

The right side of this page outlines efforts that have been undertaken to more precisely manage our funding costs on a go-forward basis.

本頁右側概述了為更準確地管理我們的未來融資成本而付出的努力。

We have cut back the high-yield savings rate in our online channel but remain competitive.

我們降低了線上通路的高收益儲蓄率，但仍保持競爭力。

We have also significantly reduced our one-year CD rate, which will help to mitigate the repricing issue that we faced during the recent quarter.

我們也大幅降低了一年期定期存款利率，這將有助於緩解我們在最近一個季度面臨的重新定價問題。

Finally, we are working with our relationship bankers to ensure that deposit rates are reasonable in the context of holistic customer profitability.

最後，我們正在與我們的關係銀行家合作，確保存款利率在整體客戶獲利能力的背景下合理。

In the few quarters following the industry's challenges of March, we priced deposit products to ensure that direct customer balances rebounded.

在三月產業面臨挑戰之後的幾個季度中，我們對存款產品進行了定價，以確保直接客戶餘額反彈。

As we continue to move past these challenges, we will price products with a more even consideration of balances and profitability.

隨著我們繼續克服這些挑戰，我們將更加均勻地考慮平衡和獲利能力來定價產品。

Turning to the next slide, you can see that non-interest income on an adjusted basis was generally stable from the third quarter of 2023.

翻到下一張投影片，可以看到從2023年第三季開始，調整後的非利息收入整體穩定。

Deposit service charges declined sequentially as we waived certain transactional fees around the time of our core conversion.

由於我們在核心轉換期間免除了某些交易費用，存款服務費用連續下降。

Other than this, growth trends were relatively strong for the quarter despite the headwind of swap revenues.

除此之外，儘管掉期收入面臨阻力，但本季的成長趨勢相對強勁。

On the following slide, you can see that our non-interest expenses were approximately $340 million for the quarter.

在下一張投影片中，您可以看到本季我們的非利息支出約為 3.4 億美元。

Adjusting for our $50 million FDIC special assessment and certain other non-recurring litigation and merger charges, non-interest expenses were approximately $273 million on an adjusted basis.

調整 5,000 萬美元的 FDIC 特別評估和某些其他非經常性訴訟和合併費用後，調整後的非利息支出約為 2.73 億美元。

Compensation costs continue to be very well controlled.

補償成本繼續得到很好的控制。

The sequential expense increase was primarily due to higher traditional FDIC assessment costs, consulting costs, occupancy and advertising expenses, and the seasonal uptick in other business development expenses.

費用較上季增加主要是由於傳統 FDIC 評估成本、諮詢成本、佔用和廣告費用增加，以及其他業務開發費用的季節性上升。

A portion of the quarter's expense increase was associated with certain consulting and customer support initiatives associated with our core system conversion in October.

本季費用成​​長的一部分與 10 月與我們的核心系統轉換相關的某些諮詢和客戶支援計劃有關。

While the customer experience associated with our conversion has been extremely positive, some of these costs will have a tail into the first quarter.

雖然與我們的轉換相關的客戶體驗非常積極，但其中一些成本將在第一季產生影響。

As you know, the first quarter also has traditional seasonal headwinds associated with payroll taxes.

如您所知，第一季還存在與工資稅相關的傳統季節性阻力。

We are very pleased with our ability to proactively control headcount and associated compensation expenses throughout 2023.

我們對 2023 年主動控制員工人數和相關薪酬支出的能力感到非常滿意。

We expect that 2024 will be a more normal year in terms of expense trajectory, and as you will see shortly, we anticipate mid-single-digit expense growth in the coming year.

我們預計，就支出軌跡而言，2024 年將是更加正常的一年，正如您很快就會看到的那樣，我們預計來年支出將出現中個位數成長。

Slide 16 illustrates our asset quality trends for the last five quarters.

投影片 16 展示了我們過去五個季度的資產品質趨勢。

While non-accrual loans ticked up somewhat during the quarter, they remain relatively flat on a year-over-year basis.

儘管非應計貸款在本季有所增加，但與去年同期相比仍相對持平。

Net charge-offs were $17 million during the quarter and included approximately $5 million associated with our commercial premium finance business, which is under an agreement to sell during the first quarter of the year.

本季淨沖銷額為 1,700 萬美元，其中包括與我們的商業保費金融業務相關的約 500 萬美元，該業務根據協議將在今年第一季出售。

As a result of our higher provision, our allowance for credit losses for loans increased 1 basis point during the quarter to 0.93% of total loans.

由於撥備增加，我們的貸款信用損失準備金在本季增加了 1 個基點，佔貸款總額的 0.93%。

The next slide illustrates the sequential increase in our tangible book value and capital ratios.

下一張投影片說明了我們的有形帳面價值和資本比率的連續成長。

Tangible book value increased nearly 2% from the third quarter of 2023 and benefited from a reduction in the OCI impact associated with our available for sale securities portfolio.

有形帳面價值較 2023 年第三季成長近 2%，受益於與我們可供出售證券投資組合相關的 OCI 影響的減少。

We are pleased that during the year we were able to support our strong loan growth and organically accrete regulatory capital.

我們很高興在這一年中我們能夠支持強勁的貸款成長並有機地累積監管資本。

Based on our expected loan growth in 2024, we would anticipate this trend to continue.

根據我們對 2024 年貸款成長的預期，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

We lay out our expectations for the coming year on slide 18.

我們在投影片 18 中列出了對來年的期望。

We anticipate generating mid-single-digit loan growth with a focus on C&I and non-investor commercial real estate in 2024.

我們預計 2024 年將出現中等個位數的貸款成長，重點關注工商業和非投資者商業房地產。

Based on consensus interest rate expectations for 2024, we would anticipate net interest income growth between 3% and 5%.

根據對 2024 年共識利率的預期，我們預期淨利息收入成長在 3% 至 5% 之間。

Non-interest income should grow between 5% and 7% on an annual basis as headwinds in our swap business are more than offset by continued scale in our wealth, insurance, and tax advisory businesses, as well as our recently enhanced treasury management capabilities.

非利息收入應每年增長 5% 至 7%，因為我們的財富、保險和稅務諮詢業務的持續規模以及我們最近增強的資金管理能力足以抵消掉期業務的不利因素。

Non-interest expenses should grow approximately in line with revenue, the higher FDIC costs, and inflationary pressures are offset by savings from our core conversion and the continued benefits of our previously announced expense initiatives.

非利息支出應大致與收入同步增長，較高的 FDIC 成本和通膨壓力將被我們的核心轉換帶來的節省以及我們先前宣布的支出計劃的持續收益所抵消。

Factoring this guidance together, we expect 2024 EPS to come in just slightly lower than the existing 2024 consensus estimate of $1.08.

綜合考慮這項指引，我們預計 2024 年每股盈餘將略低於現有 2024 年共識預測 1.08 美元。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator to begin Q&A.

之後，我會將電話轉回接線生開始問答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler.

（操作說明）Frank Schiraldi、Piper Sandler。

Just on the NII guide, I recognize you guys follow the market or the forward curve here, and most of those assumed rate cuts are back-loaded in the year.

就 NII 指南而言，我意識到你們都在關注市場或遠期曲線，而大多數假設的降息都是在今年進行的。

What sort of annualized basis or annualized pickup do you get in terms of either NII or NIM from a given 25-basis-point cut?

從給定的 25 個基點削減中，您會得到什麼樣的年化基礎或年化回升（NII 或 NIM）？

What's the assumption?

假設是什麼？

So I want to make sure I understand the question.

所以我想確保我理解這個問題。

You want to know what just the impact would be of a single 25-basis-point increase?

您想知道單次升息 25 個基點會產生什麼影響嗎？

Or cut, I'm sorry.

或者剪掉，對不起。

Yeah.

是的。

Basically, as you get -- if we get three or four cuts, I mean, I'm just trying to assume or get a sense of what 25 basis points does for, on average, the NIM or NII in your modeling.

基本上，如果我們得到三到四次削減，我的意思是，我只是試圖假設或了解 25 個基點平均對模型中的 NIM 或 NII 有何作用。

So I'm going to direct you back to our guidance around 3% to 5%.

因此，我將引導您回到我們大約 3% 到 5% 的指導。

So what we're expecting right now in 2024 is roughly 175 basis points that will affect most short end of the curve as you get less inversion in the curve.

因此，我們現在預計 2024 年將有大約 175 個基點，隨著曲線反轉的減少，這將影響曲線的最短端。

And that first increase does start in the end of March.

第一次增長確實從三月底開始。

You don't get much in the first quarter.

第一季你不會得到太多。

But you are correct.

但你是對的。

They are more back-loaded on the cuts into the fourth quarter of 2024.

他們對 2024 年第四季的削減計劃更加猶豫不決。

So I'm not prepared to answer a question on what is exactly a 25-basis-point cut because it's going to depend upon the mix of the funding sources at that time.

因此，我還沒準備好回答到底什麼是降息 25 個基點的問題，因為這將取決於當時的資金來源組合。

For the full year, we're expecting 3% to 5% increase in NII, and that should drive a slightly higher NIM year over year.

對於全年，我們預計 NII 會成長 3% 至 5%，這應該會推動 NIM 同比略高。

And Frank, conceptually, we're relatively neutrally positioned to the short end of the curve.

弗蘭克，從概念上講，我們相對中立地定位於曲線的短端。

So there's not a significant move based on if those cuts don't materialize.

因此，如果這些削減沒有實現，就不會採取重大措施。

We're much more exposed to the longer end as it impacts the benefit that we'll get as our fixed rate loans mature and reprice.

我們面臨的風險更大，因為它會影響我們在固定利率貸款到期和重新定價時獲得的收益。

Okay.

好的。

So I guess over the full curve, you're still liability sensitive, but more neutral to the front end.

所以我想在整個曲線上，你仍然對責任敏感，但對前端更中立。

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And just a more theoretical question in terms of -- the business mix has changed a bit here over the years with the specialized deposit opportunity, the opportunity on the C&I side, which you guys continue to see in 2024.

這是一個更理論性的問題——多年來，隨著專業存款機會、C&I 方面的機會，業務組合發生了一些變化，你們將在 2024 年繼續看到這一點。

In a more normally sloped yield curve, what do you think a normal sort of margin is -- a normalized sort of NIM is for Valley in the way you've built the balance sheet here?

在更正常傾斜的殖利率曲線中，您認為正常的保證金是什麼——按照您在這裡建立資產負債表的方式，對矽谷來說，標準化的淨利差是多少？

Yeah, this is Ira.

是的，這是艾拉。

I think it's a lot higher.

我認為它要高得多。

I mean, obviously, being in an inverted curve for three years, running the balance sheet, in which we do, where we try to take as much of a neutral stance as we can, it's a real challenging environment for us.

我的意思是，顯然，三年來一直處於倒掛曲線，運行資產負債表，我們這樣做，我們試圖採取盡可能中立的立場，這對我們來說是一個真正具有挑戰性的環境。

That said, as the curve does get to a more normalized focus, we do anticipate significant margin expansion as we get back to an appropriate environment.

也就是說，隨著曲線確實達到更正常化的焦點，我們確實預期當我們回到適當的環境時，利潤率會大幅擴張。

We've done a really good job shifting the commercial growth within the organization.

我們在改變組織內部的商業成長方面做得非常出色。

We've been running a 10% CAGR on C&I growth for an extended period of time.

長期以來，我們的 C&I 成長複合年增長率為 10%。

And as you mentioned, the diversification of the funding base really will help us as that curve gets a little bit more normal and we can get back to an appropriate deposit pricing approach across the organization.

正如您所提到的，資金基礎的多元化確實會對我們有所幫助，因為該曲線變得更加正常，我們可以在整個組織內恢復適當的存款定價方法。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then if I could just sneak in one last one on that front.

然後如果我能在前面偷偷塞進最後一張。

In terms of the specialized deposits coming on board in the quarter, the growth there, and just thinking through the betas on your deposit book, the specialized versus the deposits in the branch.

就本季新增的專業存款而言，那裡的成長，只要考慮一下存款簿上的貝塔值，專業存款與分行存款的比較。

Does -- are the betas expanding here, given the national businesses, and will that help you -- obviously help you maybe to a greater degree in a down rate environment?

考慮到全國性的企業，貝塔係數是否正在擴大，這是否會對您有所幫助？顯然，在利率下調的環境下，可能會在更大程度上幫助您？

I mean, those definitely have a bit of a higher beta in some of those national businesses.

我的意思是，在一些全國性企業中，這些企業的貝塔值肯定更高一些。

And I think that refers back to what Travis said that it's going to be a bit more neutral when we have some of that curve impacted right off the bat.

我認為這指的是特拉維斯所說的，當我們的一些曲線立即受到影響時，它會變得更加中性。

I think the mix shift from out of non-interest bearing really impacted us during the course of the year, so that's changed a little bit of the asset liability.

我認為，從無息轉向的組合轉變在這一年中確實對我們產生了影響，因此資產負債發生了一些變化。

So we do have more sensitivity on the downside on the deposit cost than when we were running 28% to 29% non-interest bearing deposits because those are now sitting in interest-bearing deposits.

因此，與我們經營 28% 至 29% 的無息存款時相比，我們確實對存款成本的下行更加敏感，因為這些存款現在都在有息存款中。

So that is going to be a benefit to us.

所以這對我們來說是有好處的。

But I think as you really mentioned, it's the diversity and the granularity that sits within that deposit book that we're really excited about and what the opportunity is.

但我認為正如您所提到的，我們真正感到興奮的是存款簿中的多樣性和粒度以及機會是什麼。

As we mentioned earlier on the call, I think deposit pricing definitely got a little bit away from us as we were focused more on the core conversion.

正如我們之前在電話會議中提到的，我認為存款定價肯定有點偏離我們，因為我們更關注核心轉換。

That said, I do believe it's an easy fix.

也就是說，我確實相信這是一個簡單的解決方案。

We will focus on it and make sure that 2024 gets back to results that you would expect from us.

我們將專注於此，並確保 2024 年恢復到您對我們期望的結果。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

I appreciate the color.

我很欣賞它的顏色。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Steve Moss, Raymond James.

史蒂夫·莫斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Good morning.

早安.

Just following up here on the asset liability side of the business.

只是在業務的資產負債方面進行跟進。

Just curious with regard to how much of your fixed rate loans and securities repriced in 2024.

只是想知道 2024 年您的固定利率貸款和證券有多少重新定價。

Yeah.

是的。

Steve, so we've talked in the past we have $20 billion of fixed rate loans.

史蒂夫，我們過去說過我們有 200 億美元的固定利率貸款。

It's not necessarily linear.

它不一定是線性的。

So we have more of our fixed rate loans repriced in the second half of the year than during the first half.

因此，我們下半年重新定價的固定利率貸款比上半年要多。

But in total, it's between $3 billion and $4 billion that would reprice this year.

但今年重新定價的金額總計在 30 億至 40 億美元之間。

But again, that's relatively back-loaded.

但同樣，這也是相對落後的。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the securities side, I'm assuming there's probably just minimal cash flows for the upcoming year.

然後在證券方面，我假設來年可能只有很少的現金流。

Yeah, the duration of securities portfolio is extended to seven years, give or take.

是的，證券投資組合的期限延長至七年，或多或少。

We get -- yeah, it's really a de minimis.

我們得到——是的，這確實是微不足道的。

It's a $5 billion portfolio.

這是一個價值 50 億美元的投資組合。

It's a couple hundred million dollars in the year.

一年下來就幾億美元了。

Okay.

好的。

And then on credit here, just curious to get a little more color on the uptick in C&I and CRE NPAs.

然後就信用而言，只是想了解 C&I 和 CRE NPA 成長的更多資訊。

It sounds like some of it is from the premium finance that you charged off this quarter.

聽起來其中一部分來自您本季沖銷的高級融資。

But just kind of curious as to what the loan types are and any color you can give.

但只是有點好奇貸款類型是什麼以及您可以提供的任何顏色。

Yeah.

是的。

Hey, Steve.

嘿，史蒂夫。

It's Tom.

是湯姆。

There was an uptick in that non-accrual, primarily in the CRE business, $20 million. $10 million of it has since been repaid.

非應計費用增加了 2000 萬美元，主要是在商業房地產業務。其中 1000 萬美元現已償還。

When you look at our performing past dues, you will see a decline on the commercial side and very little, if any, in that 90-day bucket.

當您查看我們逾期未付款項的表現時，您會發現商業方面有所下降，並且在 90 天的時間段內，即使有的話，也很少。

The increase in the accruing past dues is on that residential side.

應計逾期會費的增加是在住宅方面。

And the color on that, it's our jumbo on balance sheet portfolio.

從顏色來看，這是我們資產負債表上龐大的投資組合。

Average loan-to-value was 58%.

平均貸款成數為 58%。

We don't expect any loss.

我們預計不會有任何損失。

Historically, looking over a 15-year period, our real estate portfolio ran at about 35% of charge-offs against our peer banks.

從歷史上看，縱觀 15 年期間，我們的房地產投資組合沖銷額約為同業銀行的 35%。

We expect that trend to continue.

我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。

We are seeing, really, improvement across the board.

我們確實看到了全面的改善。

Our metrics remain solid, especially on the commercial side.

我們的指標仍然穩健，尤其是在商業方面。

Okay.

好的。

And just curious -- I noticed in the text that you guys did refer to an uptick in classified assets.

只是好奇——我在文中註意到你們確實提到了機密資產的增加。

Just kind of curious where did criticizing classified assets end the quarter here.

只是有點好奇，對分類資產的批評是在哪裡結束這個季度的。

The uptick -- Travis, you'll have the number, but the uptick -- we do that forward review of all of our loans, our total portfolio, especially looking early on in the year at the ones that are repricing or resetting.

成長——特拉維斯，你會得到這個數字，但是成長——我們對我們所有的貸款、我們的總投資組合進行前瞻性審查，特別是在今年年初關注那些正在重新定價或重置的貸款。

There was a migration of those loans in the third quarter, primarily into that special mention category, where they might have fallen below or right out of one times debt service coverage.

這些貸款在第三季度發生了轉移，主要進入了特別關注類別，這些貸款可能低於或直接超出了一次償債覆蓋範圍。

I just want to remind everyone, the loans that we repriced during 2023 and our review of 2024 repriced resulted in no modifications of any of the contractual terms to the repayment.

我只是想提醒大家，我們在 2023 年重新定價的貸款以及我們對 2024 年重新定價的審查沒有導致任何還款合約條款的修改。

But Travis, is there is a different number that I'm not referring to?

但是特拉維斯，是否有一個我沒有提到的不同數字？

Yeah, I don't have the number in front of me.

是的，我前面沒有這個號碼。

But I would say, in the third quarter, that stress test process that Tom referenced resulted in a more significant increase in classified loans.

但我想說，在第三季度，湯姆提到的壓力測試過程導致了分類貸款的更顯著增加。

Again, not an impression that we would see additional losses, but just the way that debt service coverage is shaken out.

再說一次，這不是我們會看到額外損失的印象，而是償債覆蓋範圍被擺脫的方式。

In the fourth quarter, it was a much more normal increase, so it was not as significant.

在第四季度，這是一個更正常的成長，因此沒有那麼顯著。

And this is Mike.

這是麥克。

That increase would have been mostly in special mention credits, not the more extreme ratings.

這種成長主要是在特別提及積分中，而不是更極端的評級。

Okay, got you.

好的，明白了。

And maybe just following up to that point, as you're seeing some borrowers get close on debt service coverage ratios, just curious as to what color you can give around whether it's a workout process, borrowers' ability to maybe pay down a loan, just kind of what you're seeing and what potential NPA formations you could see here in 2024.

也許只是跟進這一點，當你看到一些借款人的償債覆蓋率接近時，只是好奇你可以在這是否是一個鍛煉過程、借款人償還貸款的能力方面給出什麼顏色，這就是你所看到的以及2024 年你可能會在這裡看到的NPA 潛在形態。

And again, we haven't had to modify any terms to those borrowers where we were repricing in the past year, year and a half.

再說一次，我們沒有必要對過去一年半重新定價的借款人的任何條款進行修改。

Typically, our underwriting standards would start -- we use a higher cap level than probably our peers use.

通常，我們的承保標準會開始——我們使用的上限水平可能比同行使用的更高。

We underwrite the current cash flow.

我們承保目前的現金流。

We don't underwrite the future cash flow.

我們不承保未來現金流。

Our leverage tends to be lower going in.

我們的槓桿往往會較低。

Our average loan to value in that real estate portfolio is about 60%, pretty, of course, all of our asset classes.

我們的房地產投資組合中的平均貸款價值約為 60%，當然，對於我們所有的資產類別而言，這一比例相當高。

So there is flexibility.

所以有彈性。

We do a lot of business with existing customers.

我們與現有客戶有許多業務往來。

They have the wherewithal.

他們有資金。

If it's tight, we'll either get additional collateral, a pay down, or reserve to support any funding below and at an appropriate level.

如果資金緊張，我們將獲得額外的抵押品、首付款或儲備金以支持低於適當水平的任何資金。

Yeah.

是的。

And the other piece I want to add, the refinance activity, especially multifamily, picked up in the fourth quarter.

我想補充的另一件事是，再融資活動，尤其是多戶住宅，在第四季有所回升。

So it did allow us to exit those non-relationship, non-core loans.

所以它確實讓我們能夠退出那些非關係、非核心貸款。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you very much for all the color.

非常感謝您提供的所有顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Perito, KBW.

邁克爾·佩里托，KBW。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I understand this isn't necessarily something you guys guide to, but I'm trying to understand some of the cadence of profitability around NIM and some of the expense targets and the rationalization, I think, which will start to have a bigger benefit in the middle part of the year.

我知道這不一定是你們所指導的，但我正在嘗試了解圍繞 NIM 的一些盈利節奏以及一些費用目標和合理化，我認為這將開始在以下方面產生更大的好處：年中。

Are you guys willing or able to just qualitatively talk about how you're thinking in the current budget about what the kind of return ROE profile will look like as you exit '24?

你們是否願意或能夠定性地談論你們在當前預算中如何考慮退出 24 年後的回報 ROE 狀況？

I mean, it feels like the first half of the year might continue to be a little bit depressed.

我的意思是，感覺今年上半年可能會繼續有點沮喪。

But just wondering if you can give any indications around that cadence, relative to the guide that you provided.

但只是想知道您是否可以相對於您提供的指南給出有關該節奏的任何指示。

Yeah.

是的。

I think your perspective, Mike, is pretty accurate.

麥克，我認為你的觀點非常準確。

So I think in the first quarter of the year, I mean, whether it's on the expense side, the headwind of payroll tax, or on the NII side, the pay count and other things, and the lack of change that's projected in the industry environment, we anticipate a generally stable margin, I'd say, in the first quarter, improving somewhat in the second quarter, and then getting more expansion in the third and fourth quarter.

所以我認為今年第一季度，無論是在費用方面，工資稅的逆風，還是在國家資訊基礎設施方面，工資計數和其他方面，以及行業預計缺乏變化在這種環境下，我們預計第一季度的利潤率整體穩定，第二季有所改善，然後第三季和第四季獲得更多擴張。

That's the way the budget is built now based on the implied forward curve.

這就是現在根據隱含遠期曲線來制定預算的方式。

In terms of expenses, I mean, we have -- if you look back to last year, there was a $7 million pick-up in the first quarter related to payroll taxes.

就支出而言，我的意思是，如果你回顧去年，第一季與工資稅相關的支出增加了 700 萬美元。

So you're looking at something similar there.

所以你正在那裡看到類似的東西。

As we stand here in December, we've, on an annualized basis, got $20 million of expense saved out related to the headcount reduction that was enacted in June.

當我們 12 月站在這裡時，按年化計算，我們已經節省了 2000 萬美元的費用，這些費用與 6 月頒布的裁員有關。

We think there is another $8 million or so, give or take, from an annualized perspective from further actions here in the first quarter on the personnel side.

我們認為，從年化角度來看，第一季人事的進一步行動還可以帶來約 800 萬美元的資金。

And then, as we get into the second quarter and beyond, there should be some saves related to the core conversion, some of these elevated costs we've talked about with customer support efforts and other things.

然後，當我們進入第二季度及以後，應該會節省一些與核心轉換相關的成本，其中一些成本上升是我們在客戶支援工作和其他方面討論過的。

So I think the first quarter, there will be some seasonal expense headwinds, but then you're looking at general stability over the three quarters following.

因此，我認為第一季將會出現一些季節性支出阻力，但接下來的三個季度總體穩定。

So I do think the profitability improves throughout the year.

所以我確實認為盈利能力全年都會有所改善。

When you blend it all together, again, at the midpoint of our range, you get to $1.04, $1.05. That puts you at an ROA level that I'd say is similar to what we've achieved this year.

當你再次將它們混合在一起時，在我們範圍的中點，你會得到 1.04 美元、1.05 美元。我想說，這使您的 ROA 水平與我們今年取得的成就相似。

But it does improve as the year goes on.

但隨著時間的推移，它確實有所改善。

Yeah.

是的。

I mean, it should put you maybe in the 90%s on the ROA on the exit.

我的意思是，它應該會讓你在退出時的 ROA 達到 90%。

I guess the question is, if revenue to expense grow dollar for dollar, that's not going to really improve much, and that's what the outlook is for '24.

我想問題是，如果收入與支出逐美元成長，那就不會真正改善太多，這就是 24 世紀的前景。

But I guess what gives you confidence that, in '25 and beyond, you guys can get back into a more positive operating leverage territory and continue to see those improvements carry forward in '25?

但我想是什麼讓你們有信心在 25 年及以後，你們能夠回到更積極的營運槓桿領域，並繼續看到這些改進在 25 年繼續下去？

I mean, is it just margin?

我的意思是，這只是保證金嗎？

Is there other kind of unit economics in some of the specialty businesses that you're growing that will benefit from scale?

您正在發展的一些專業業務中是否還有其他類型的單位經濟效益可以從規模中受益？

Would love some additional color there.

希望那裡有一些額外的顏色。

I think there's a lot of opportunity for us.

我認為我們有很多機會。

I think if you look at the net interest income side, sitting in an inverted curve hopefully isn't one that we sit in for that much longer, but it definitely has an impact on us.

我認為，如果你看一下淨利息收入方面，希望我們不會在倒掛曲線中坐太久，但這肯定會對我們產生影響。

I think the core conversion is really understated as we think about what the ability to scale looks like for us.

我認為當我們考慮擴展能力對我們來說是什麼樣子時，核心轉換確實被低估了。

We've changed every single one of our clients into a new core platform across the entire organization.

我們已將整個組織的每一位客戶轉變為一個新的核心平台。

That said, we put in 261 different APIs sitting on top of that core conversion to think about what that client experience looks like.

也就是說，我們在核心轉換之上放置了 261 個不同的 API，以思考客戶體驗是什麼樣的。

You go into Valley, you open up a checking account in one of our branches, it's the exact same platform that you do when you're opening up a digital account sitting at Valley.

您進入 Valley，在我們的一個分行開設支票帳戶，這與您在 Valley 開設數位帳戶時使用的平台完全相同。

So we were very smart, I think, in the approach that we took as to how we were going to leverage the infrastructure and technology base.

因此，我認為，我們在如何利用基礎設施和技術基礎方面採取的方法非常聰明。

So from a scalability perspective, for us, we're not paying per individual unit when we open up an individual account to a core provider somewhere.

因此，從可擴展性的角度來看，對我們來說，當我們向某處的核心提供者開設個人帳戶時，我們不會按單一單位付費。

We really have a technology infrastructure that's scalable here that's focused on what that client experience is going to look like and will definitely drive outsized growth.

我們確實擁有可擴展的技術基礎設施，專注於客戶體驗，並且肯定會推動超額成長。

And when I talked about some of the commercial growth numbers and the consumer growth numbers, those are household growth numbers, not even individual accounts.

當我談到一些商業成長數字和消費者成長數字時，這些是家庭成長數字，甚至不是個人帳戶成長數字。

That was done during a core conversion when everyone hated mid-sized banks.

這是在核心轉型期間完成的，當時每個人都討厭中型銀行。

So I think there's a lot of positive tailwind that we have when we think about what we're doing from a franchise value perspective.

因此，我認為，當我們從特許經營價值的角度思考我們正在做的事情時，我們有很多積極的推動力。

So I'm really excited about what I think the opportunity is on the expense side of the book, but the revenue side is definitely going to begin to accelerate as well.

因此，我對本書的費用方面的機會感到非常興奮，但收入方面也肯定會開始加速。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then just lastly on the same line of questioning, you guys had a 5% to 7% loan growth target for '24.

最後，在同一個問題上，你們為 24 年制定了 5% 至 7% 的貸款成長目標。

Obviously, still trying to keep it

顯然，仍在努力保留它

--

--

Yeah.

是的。

Michael, look at our fourth-quarter originations.

邁克爾，看看我們第四季的起源。

They were $2.2 billion.

他們是22億美元。

That was

那是

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Okay.

好的。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Sorry, Mike.

對不起，麥克。

We were hearing your question on loan growth, but it dropped out when you said that we got

我們聽到了你關於貸款成長的問題，但當你說我們得到了

--

--

Yeah, no problem.

是的，沒問題。

And it was more just asking -- it's the same line of questioning.

這更多地只是問——這是同樣的問題。

Just the loan growth, as you guys focus more on pricing of customers and holistic customer profitability, et cetera, is it fair to assume that the incremental loan growth and the customer loans that you're bringing on, you guys would think with some of the deposit pricing changes, et cetera, will be coming on at better profit margins than they were in '23?

只是貸款成長，因為你們更專注於客戶定價和整體客戶獲利能力等等，可以公平地假設增量貸款成長和你們帶來的客戶貸款，你們會認為一些存款定價的變化等是否會帶來比23 年更好的利潤率？

Or is there like a lag to some of those impacts, or how should we think about that dynamic?

或者其中一些影響是否存在滯後，或者我們應該如何考慮這種動態？

You should expect that our spreads on those will continue to widen and increase.

您應該預料到我們在這些方面的利差將繼續擴大和增加。

And to give you a little context around it, we have seen an uptick in that C&I pipeline in that business.

為了給您一些相關背景信息，我們已經看到該業務的 C&I 管道有所增加。

It's probably 70% of what its high point was and it represents 65% of our total portfolio.

它可能是最高點的 70%，占我們總投資組合的 65%。

And it's across all business lines, especially in our healthcare and fund banking lines.

它涉及所有業務線，特別是在我們的醫療保健和基金銀行業務線。

So we are starting to see the improvement, and spreads are holding.

因此，我們開始看到改善，並且利差保持不變。

Mike, really just adding to that, when you think about the compression we've seen in the margin as largely a function, as we've talked about some of the mixed shift and some of the other repricing, as rates either stabilize, which they seem to have, or go down, there really is going to be a significant benefit to us.

麥克，實際上只是補充一點，當你考慮我們在邊際中看到的壓縮在很大程度上是一個函數時，正如我們討論過的一些混合轉變和一些其他重新定價，因為利率要么穩定，要么他們似乎已經或下降了，這確實會為我們帶來重大好處。

The new value margin that we put on is around [$350 million] to [$360 million], which reflects the ability that we have from a pricing perspective and how we're going about it from a profitability perspective.

我們提出的新價值邊際約為[3.5億美元]至[3.6億美元]，這反映了我們從定價角度的能力以及我們如何從盈利角度進行處理。

The new loans that we put on, we've been able to bring on an equal amount of funding associated with that from a client perspective, so it's not as even if we're out in the broker market.

從客戶的角度來看，我們發放的新貸款已經能夠帶來與此相關的等量資金，因此即使我們進入經紀商市場，情況也並非如此。

So once we do get some stabilization, which we anticipate having on that mixed shift, there really is upside for what that margin looks like based on the fact that the new originations, as Tom mentioned, $2 billion, came on at a spread of a positive [3.50%] for us.

因此，一旦我們確實獲得了一定程度的穩定（我們預計這種混合轉變會出現這種情況），那麼該利潤率看起來確實有上行空間，因為正如湯姆提到的那樣，新的起源是20 億美元，其分佈範圍是對我們來說是正面的[3.50%]。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then I want to just clarify something quick, and then I'll step back, which is, Mike, can you repeat -- I just want to make sure I heard it correctly -- the rate assumptions and baked into the NII guide around Fed funds.

然後我想快速澄清一些事情，然後我會退後一步，邁克，你能重複一下嗎——我只是想確保我聽到的是正確的——利率假設並融入到國家信息基礎設施指南中聯邦基金。

And then just to be clear, Travis, you're basically saying, though, like on the short end, whether it's two cuts, three cuts, four cuts, it doesn't actually have a huge impact to 2024.

然後需要澄清的是，特拉維斯，你基本上是在說，就像在短期內一樣，無論是兩次削減、三次削減還是四次削減，它實際上對 2024 年不會產生巨大影響。

It's more the long end and then some of the back book and other dynamics that we've been discussing.

這更多的是長篇大論，然後是我們一直在討論的一些背書和其他動態。

I just wanted to make sure I heard that all right.

我只是想確保我沒聽錯。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

And while we haven't laid out specifically and we expect the Fed to cut this amount on this date, I can tell you the first rate cut anticipated is 25 basis points, but they accelerate as the year goes on.

雖然我們還沒有具體說明，我們預計聯準會在這一天削減這一金額，但我可以告訴你，預計首次降息是 25 個基點，但隨著時間的推移，降息速度會加快。

So we get larger rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters.

因此，我們在第三和第四季進行了更大幅度的降息。

And again, the biggest benefit to us would be a lessening of the inversion in the curve and a reduction in short-term interest rates, hence why we took the cost this quarter to shorten our duration on our liabilities or just funding generally, as Tom talked about, around the mix of our deposits moving away from FHLB, and some of are maturing, whether they were indirect or direct CDs that we had in the fourth quarter to money market and transaction accounts.

再說一遍，對我們來說最大的好處是曲線倒掛的減少和短期利率的降低，因此我們為什麼要在本季度花費成本來縮短負債期限或只是普遍融資，正如湯姆談到我們的存款從FHLB 轉移的組合，其中一些存款正在到期，無論它們是我們在第四季度向貨幣市場和交易帳戶持有的間接或直接CD。

And that was all done purposefully to prepare the fee for the Fed cuts.

這一切都是有目的地為聯準會降息做準備。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, guys.

感謝你們。

I appreciate taking my questions.

我很高興回答我的問題。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

喬恩‧阿夫斯特羅姆 (Jon Arfstrom)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Just follow-up on that, Mike, is that -- the liability shortening, is that largely complete for you guys at this point?

麥克，接下來的問題是──責任縮短，對你們來說現在基本上已經完成了嗎？

It's largely complete.

已經基本完成了。

There is another big piece in the first quarter still to come just -- it was front end loaded because we were preparing for this when we were putting on these liabilities with duration going back to even the first quarter of last year.

第一季還有另一件大事即將發生——它是前端加載的，因為當我們承擔這些負債時，我們正在為此做準備，其期限甚至可以追溯到去年第一季。

So there's another piece in the first quarter, and after that, it tails off by a bit.

所以第一季還有一段，之後就有點拖戲了。

Okay, good.

好的。

And then on same topic, slide 13, you talked about the CD rate reductions in December and then you have some more coming in maturing liabilities in the first quarter.

然後在同一主題幻燈片 13 中，您談到了 12 月份 CD 利率的下調，然後您在第一季到期的負債中又談到了更多內容。

What was the reaction on the CD repricing?

對CD重新定價有何反應？

And is this maturing liability piece, is that deposits as well or what is that, and where can that reprice?

這是到期的負債嗎？是存款還是那是什麼？在哪裡可以重新定價？

So the customer impact on it is yet to be seen, but I don't expect it to be extreme.

因此，客戶對其的影響還有待觀察，但我預計不會是極端的。

So to be really clear about that one-year CD rate, the majority of the impact of that will be CDs that will roll.

因此，要真正清楚一年期 CD 利率，其大部分影響將是滾動的 CD。

So if you remember from our previous comments back in '23, we put on several CD specials, most notably around a 13-month duration.

因此，如果您還記得我們在 23 年之前的評論，我們推出了幾張 CD 特別專輯，其中最引人注目的是為期 13 個月的專輯。

And now, those things are rolling at 12 and so we're reducing the rolling.

現在，這些事情都在 12 點滾動，所以我們正在減少滾動。

Okay, good.

好的。

We generally average between 70% to 80% retention of the CDs when we're in market.

當我們進入市場時，我們通常平均保留 70% 到 80% 的 CD。

So I think there should be a pretty big tailwind there.

所以我認為那裡應該有很大的推動力。

Okay, good.

好的。

And then, Ira, it's kind of a margin question, but maybe not.

然後，艾拉，這是保證金問題，但也許不是。

But it feels like maybe the deposit pricing pressure was a little bit more than you expected.

但感覺存款定價壓力可能比你預期的要大一些。

But to me, I look at it and I think about the numbers and maybe we're at the bottom of the margin.

但對我來說，我看著它，思考數字，也許我們正處於邊緣的底部。

So curious on that, and then also curious about the trade-off decision you talked about earlier about deposit growth against maybe some of the promotional pricing or things you did to gather new accounts and bring in deposits.

對此很好奇，然後也對您之前談到的關於存款成長與某些促銷定價或您為收集新帳戶和吸引存款所做的事情的權衡決定感到好奇。

Can you talk a little bit about that trade-off decision that you guys made?

您能談談你們所做的權衡決定嗎？

I think from a big picture perspective, there were a couple of variables.

我認為從大局來看，存在一些變數。

One, we made a conscious decision to go shorter on our liability side.

第一，我們有意識地決定減少負債。

So we could have extended or kept it the same duration as we were having before.

因此，我們可以延長或保持與以前相同的持續時間。

But when we started to see some of the movement in November and where the expectations were maybe even a little bit earlier, where the forward curve was on that short end, we definitely moved a little bit shorter.

但當我們開始看到 11 月的一些走勢時，預期甚至可能更早一點，遠期曲線處於短端，我們的走勢肯定會更短一些。

So that definitely negatively impacted the interest expense for the quarter.

因此，這肯定對該季度的利息支出產生了負面影響。

And we do think that there will be a positive impact to that, though, as we think about where 2024 comes out for the full year period.

不過，當我們考慮 2024 年全年的情況時，我們確實認為這將會產生正面影響。

And that said, from a macro perspective, it was a very challenging year for an organization like ours, looking in the beginning of the year, what happened with Signature, what happened with SCV and the others.

也就是說，從宏觀角度來看，對於像我們這樣的組織來說，這是非常具有挑戰性的一年，看看今年年初，Signature、SCV 和其他公司發生了什麼。

And we were really focused on retention of deposits.

我們非常關注存款的保留。

And as a result of that, I think we were probably maybe too lenient on some of our clients and acquiescing to some of their rate requests.

因此，我認為我們可能對一些客戶過於寬容並默許了他們的一些費率要求。

We had a lot of money that moved to treasuries right off the bat.

我們有很多錢立即轉移到國債。

And that said, we were really competing with that.

也就是說，我們確實在與之競爭。

Today, in the conversations we have with clients, I'm not so sure that we needed to even necessarily do that, and we're going back re-engaging with our clients again.

今天，在我們與客戶的對話中，我不確定我們是否需要這樣做，並且我們將再次與客戶重新接觸。

We were a bit distracted I think in the fourth quarter based just with the core conversion and probably even in the third quarter even leading up to that core conversion.

我認為我們在第四季度的核心轉換方面有點心煩意亂，甚至可能在第三季度甚至導致核心轉換。

For us getting the core conversion done was important.

對我們來說，完成核心轉換非常重要。

We did it unbelievable.

我們做到了令人難以置信。

I had three email complaints about it from clients.

我收到了三封客戶的電子郵件投訴。

Out of an entire client base, it's really nothing.

對於整個客戶群來說，這真的沒什麼。

So there's a lot of focus on retention of clients through that core conversion.

因此，人們非常關注透過核心轉換來保留客戶。

Once again, now I just think we get back having appropriate conversations with our clients, appropriate conversations when it comes to what the pricing should look like, and we'll get the deposits back to an appropriate beta as to what it should look like.

再說一遍，現在我只是認為我們會重新與客戶進行適當的對話，在定價應該是什麼樣子時進行適當的對話，並且我們會將存款恢復到適當的貝塔值。

But I think most importantly, we did an unbelievable core conversion.

但我認為最重要的是，我們進行了令人難以置信的核心轉換。

We retained all of our clients.

我們保留了所有的客戶。

We actually grew clients through our core conversion, which doesn't even necessarily happen.

實際上，我們透過核心轉換來增加客戶，但這甚至不一定會發生。

We put on, as I said, 10.5% household growth in commercial during this year.

正如我所說，今年家庭商業成長了 10.5%。

I mean, those are unbelievable numbers.

我的意思是，這些數字令人難以置信。

So while, once again, I said I'm not so happy with where the fourth quarter ended up, big picture, I'm not that concerned.

因此，儘管我再次表示我對第四季的結局不太滿意，但總體而言，我並不那麼擔心。

Yeah, you shouldn't beat yourself up too much.

是的，你不該太自責。

It's not terrible.

這並不可怕。

But just one more thing on net interest income.

但還有一件事是關於淨利息收入的。

I asked this earlier, but it implies a decent step up your guide, like about $140 million incremental from the run rate that you had in the fourth quarter.

我之前問過這個問題，但這意味著您的指南將得到相當大的提升，例如比第四季度的運行率增加約 1.4 億美元。

Do you guys think we're near the bottom or at the bottom on net interest income at this point?

你們認為目前我們的淨利息收入是接近底部還是底部？

So we're certainly getting close.

所以我們肯定已經接近了。

So let me do this.

那麼就讓我來做這件事吧。

I'm going to direct everybody to slide 6 because I know that this is a really important topic.

我將引導大家看第 6 張投影片，因為我知道這是一個非常重要的主題。

I mean, if you look at the quarter-over-quarter cost increase in deposits, you'll see that we started off at 60 basis points, and we had two consecutive quarters at 49, and in the third quarter to fourth quarter, it's only 19 basis points.

我的意思是，如果你看一下存款的季度環比成本增長，你會發現我們一開始是 60 個基點，連續兩個季度是 49 個基點，從第三季度到第四季度，這是僅19個基點。

So why do we feel better about the direction of NIM is mainly that, combined with the fact that we're starting to see some stabilization in maybe in our non-interest-bearing accounts.

那麼，為什麼我們對淨利差的方向感覺更好，主要是因為我們開始看到我們的無息帳戶可能會出現一些穩定。

So that non-interest-bearing location, going back to when we closed on my union, we had 36% of our total funding sources in non-interest bearing.

因此，回到無息位置，回到我們關閉工會時，我們總資金來源的 36% 是無息的。

That's come down to 23%.

已降至 23%。

Now, in December, we're starting to see some stabilization, and you can find that with the deceleration in the overall cost of deposits.

現在，到了 12 月，我們開始看到一些穩定的情況，您可以發現隨著整體存款成本的下降。

That's why we feel like there's some additional increase in our NIM as 2024 plays out.

這就是為什麼我們認為隨著 2024 年的結束，我們的淨利差會有一些額外的增加。

Obviously, we need to spend rate cuts to capture all of that opportunity.

顯然，我們需要透過降息來抓住所有這些機會。

Yeah, okay.

好的。

All right, fair enough.

好吧，很公平。

Thank you, guys.

感謝你們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Steven Alexopoulos, JPMorgan.

史蒂文‧阿萊克索普洛斯，摩根大通。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Ira, I wanted to start -- so when you took over as CEO, one of your top priorities was improving the efficiency ratio.

艾拉，我想開始——所以當你接任執行長時，你的首要任務之一就是提高效率。

And I know it was a rough year for everybody because of what happened with rates and NIM pressure, et cetera.

我知道這對每個人來說都是艱難的一年，因為利率和淨利差壓力等方面發生了變化。

But when I look at the strategic imperatives for 2024, very surprised -- I felt like you moved the goalpost a bit -- that improving where we are is not on there.

但當我看到 2024 年的戰略要務時，我感到非常驚訝——我覺得你稍微移動了目標——我們的現狀並沒有得到改善。

Is this still a top priority for you, and should we expect to see improvement this year?

這仍然是您的首要任務嗎？今年我們是否應該看到進步？

Yeah.

是的。

Look, I think the contraction of what we saw in the efficiency ratio is largely just a function of the NIM, Steven.

史蒂文，我認為我們所看到的效率比的收縮很大程度上只是 NIM 的函數。

And as we get back to better core funding, as we get back to some better diversification that sits within that asset class, the NIM will definitely expand as a result of that.

當我們回到更好的核心融資，當我們回到該資產類別內更好的多元化時，淨利差肯定會因此而擴大。

We're down -- I think we were at 3,325, plus or minus, employees when I took over.

我們的情況有所下降——我認為在我接任時我們的員工人數為 3,325 人（上下）。

We're sitting around 3,700 today, and we're $20 billion, $21 billion back then and $60 billion today.

今天我們有大約 3,700 名員工，我們的資產為 200 億美元，當時為 210 億美元，現在為 600 億美元。

And I think we've definitely focused on what the efficiency looks like.

我認為我們絕對關注效率。

We've definitely embedded technology in here.

我們確實已經在這裡嵌入了技術。

For me, it's not something that's even caught out as the strategic imperative.

對我來說，這甚至不是策略上的當務之急。

It's just in the core of who we are today.

這正是我們今天的核心。

I think we're very focused, obviously, on what that efficiency is.

我認為顯然我們非常關注效率是什麼。

As I mentioned earlier, the technology infrastructure that we put into place allows for scalability, which is something that's important to us.

正如我之前提到的，我們建立的技術基礎設施可以實現可擴展性，這對我們來說很重要。

So the technology, the dragon, what the cost is for that isn't going to be nearly what it was before.

因此，技術、龍以及其成本將不會像以前那樣。

So definitely not focusing on it as calling it out isn't something that I want someone to take away and say, hey, it's not a priority for us.

因此，絕對不要專注於它，因為我不希望有人拿走它並說，嘿，這不是我們的優先事項。

I think it's just, day in, day out, what we do.

我認為這就是我們日復一日所做的事情。

And I think as the NIM gets to an appropriate level, back to where we think it should be, you'll see that number dip back down to a number that you'll be happy with.

我認為，當 NIM 達到適當的水平，回到我們認為應該的水平時，您會看到該數字回落到您滿意的數字。

Okay.

好的。

All right, let me ask -- so if we look at the expenses, which we're elevating, you called out related to the system conversion, how much was that in the fourth quarter?

好吧，讓我問一下 - 如果我們看看我們正在提高的費用，您提到與系統轉換相關的費用，那麼第四季度的費用是多少？

What's expected at 1Q, and what comes out in 2Q?

第一季的預期是什麼，第二季的結果是什麼？

Yeah, in the operating expense number, there was $5 million associated with the core conversion.

是的，在營運費用中，有 500 萬美元與核心轉換相關。

In the first quarter, we anticipate that'll be around $3 million, so you maybe decline $2 million.

在第一季度，我們預計約為 300 萬美元，因此您可能會減少 200 萬美元。

And then from there on, it should be out.

然後從那裡開始，它應該被淘汰。

Got it.

知道了。

So I think those are really the one-time items, or infrequent, whatever you want to refer to them as.

所以我認為這些實際上是一次性的項目，或者是不常見的項目，無論你想如何稱呼它們。

But keep in mind, there was dual operating expenses and running those multiple platforms as well during that quarter.

但請記住，該季度存在雙重營運費用並運行多個平台。

Once we get to a better place, which we're pretty much right on the verge of, you're going to have those being eliminated as well.

一旦我們到達一個更好的地方，我們幾乎就在邊緣，那些人也會被淘汰。

And I do just want to go back to your efficiency comments, Stephen.

我只想回到你的效率評論，史蒂芬。

I mean, if you look back a year ago, our efficiency ratio was 50% in the fourth quarter of '22, 60% this year.

我的意思是，如果你回顧一年前，我們的效率在 22 年第四季為 50%，今年為 60%。

But relative to average assets, non-interest expenses declined in that same period.

但相對於平均資產，同期非利息支出有所下降。

So I mean, I think it is directly -- obviously, it's directly tied to the revenue environment that you described.

所以我的意思是，我認為它直接 - 顯然，它與你描述的收入環境直接相關。

But I mean, when we've talked about the headcount reductions that we've seen, the limited headcount growth over the five years, relative to the asset growth that we've put on.

但我的意思是，當我們談論我們所看到的員工人數減少時，相對於我們所投入的資產成長而言，過去五年的員工人數增長有限。

So the efficiency ratio does tend to be more tied to just market dynamics and things.

因此，效率比率確實往往與市場動態和其他事物更相關。

But structurally and what we can control, I think we've done a very good job.

但從結構上以及我們可以控制的方面來看，我認為我們做得非常好。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Let me ask, you guys called out that the deposit pricing got a bit away from you because of the system conversion.

我問一下，你們說由於系統轉換，存款定價有點偏離你們。

What's the connection between the two?

兩者有何關聯？

We have a lot of relationship clients which an organization our size should have.

我們有很多像我們這樣規模的組織應該擁有的關係客戶。

I think we have internal models as to how we look at pricing deposits.

我認為我們有關於如何看待存款定價的內部模型。

I think the focus, largely on our frontline staff, was on reaching out to clients, retaining clients, and some of the profitability metrics as to how we think about engaging with our clients, how we want to direct certain conversations.

我認為重點主要集中在我們的第一線員工身上，包括接觸客戶、留住客戶，以及一些獲利指標，包括我們如何考慮與客戶互動、我們希望如何引導某些對話。

We're probably distracted based on client retention and based on just conveying to clients what was going to be new with regards to how they approach the different systems.

我們可能會因為保留客戶以及向客戶傳達有關他們如何處理不同系統的新內容而分心。

That said, I think certain deposit rates from an exception pricing perspective got a little bit out of hand, and there wasn't necessarily the focus that should have been on making sure that we were within our targeted guidelines as to what that pricing should be.

也就是說，我認為從例外定價的角度來看，某些存款利率有點失控，而且不一定要重點關注確保我們的定價符合我們的目標指導方針。 。

That said, I'm very confident that we'll get there very, very soon.

也就是說，我非常有信心我們很快就能實現這個目標。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay, if I could ask one last one.

好的，如果我能問最後一個問題的話。

Sorry for all the questions.

抱歉有這些問題。

So I'm trying to square that the NIM, Travis, you said it's neutral in the short run.

所以我試著修正 NIM，Travis，你說它在短期內是中性的。

But Ira, you said multiple times your NIM should expand, I think you said very nicely, once the curve looks more normal.

但是艾拉，你多次說過你的淨利差應該擴大，我認為你說得很好，一旦曲線看起來更正常。

How long are we talking?

我們聊多久？

What's the lag?

滯後是什麼？

I would think it would be sooner than later.

我想這會是遲早的事。

But if we get a positively sloped curve towards the back end of this year, is it a 2026 story before your NIM starts to look more normal?

但是，如果我們在今年年底得到一條正斜率的曲線，那麼在您的淨利差開始看起來更加正常之前，這是 2026 年的故事嗎？

I'm just confused why the Fed cutting rates, given how much you're paying on deposits, you guys are one of the higher payers, is it more beneficial in the short run?

我只是很困惑為什麼聯準會降息，考慮到你們支付的存款金額，你們是支付較高的人之一，從短期來看這是否更有利？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think there's the front end curve, I think, coming down definitely is going to be impactful to us, but it's the long end where we have a lot more that's tied to.

我認為前端曲線的下降肯定會對我們產生影響，但這是長期的，我們還有更多與之相關的東西。

It's definitely going to be a pretty significant tailwind for us as to how we're thinking about where the net interest income is going to go.

對於我們如何思考淨利息收入的去向來說，這肯定會是一個相當重要的推動力。

I think the commentary was more along, there's some day count issues, really, that goes into that first quarter, as well as we're not expecting much change within the first quarter as well.

我認為評論更進一步，確實存在一些天數問題，這些問題會進入第一季度，我們預計第一季內不會發生太大變化。

So once the curve does begin to normalize, we do believe that there's going to be some positive impact to that net interest income and to the margin as well.

因此，一旦曲線開始正常化，我們確實相信淨利息收入和利潤率都會受到一些正面影響。

That said, they're really not asking or forecasting anything to really change until the tail end of the first quarter, and there is that pressure from a day count right off the bat as well.

也就是說，直到第一季末，他們才真正要求或預測任何真正的改變，並且也存在來自立即計算的壓力。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Nick Cucharale, Hovde Group.

尼克·庫查拉萊 (Nick Cucharale)，Hovde 集團。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Just a question on the non-interest income outlook.

只是關於非利息收入前景的問題。

What are the primary drivers of the 5% to 7% year-over-year growth?

年比成長 5% 至 7% 的主要驅動力是什麼？

And are you expecting a reversion of swap activity closer to the first half of '23 as opposed to the back half?

您是否預期互換活動會在接近 23 年上半年（而非下半年）時出現逆轉？

So the biggest driver would be, as I said earlier, stabilization in our non-interest-bearing deposit balances, but that was the biggest driver of net interest income.

因此，正如我之前所說，最大的推動因素是我們的無利息存款餘額的穩定，但這是淨利息收入的最大推動因素。

I think he was asking for non-interest income.

我認為他要求的是非利息收入。

You said non-interest income?

你說非利息收入？

I missed that.

我錯過了。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

So you can see that in our IP deck as well.

所以您也可以在我們的 IP 平台中看到這一點。

It lays out the portions of that.

它列出了其中的各個部分。

Keep in mind that in 2023, we also had some one-time events related to some revenue recognition that aren't going to repeat in the prior year.

請記住，在 2023 年，我們也發生了一些與某些收入確認相關的一次性事件，這些事件不會在上一年重複。

But I think when you look at the totality of our fee income, we feel very good about where we're at.

但我認為，當你看到我們的費用收入總額時，我們對自己的處境感到非常滿意。

Because it only generates about 10% of our total revenue, sometimes the increases in any one category get lost.

因為它只產生我們總收入的 10% 左右，所以有時任何一個類別的成長都會消失。

But I do think, given the lower loan growth that we have, swap income will be somewhat challenged and it will be replaced with things like FX, wealth management.

但我確實認為，鑑於我們的貸款成長較低，掉期收入將受到一定的挑戰，它將被外匯、財富管理等業務所取代。

And we have a very strong treasury management project going on in our company.

我們公司正在進行一個非常強大的財務管理專案。

And as we put on more C&I business, we would expect that to contribute to our fee income as well.

隨著我們開展更多的工商業業務，我們預計這也將為我們的費用收入做出貢獻。

Okay.

好的。

And then just looking at the expense base, as you mentioned, some investments and some reduction opportunities throughout 2023.

然後，正如您所提到的，請看看 2023 年的費用基礎，一些投資和一些減少機會。

Now that the core conversion is complete, what investments are you most focused on to drive the next leg of growth for the company?

既然核心轉型已經完成，您最關注哪些投資來推動公司的下一階段成長？

I think a lot of them line up with some of the strategic imperatives that we talked about.

我認為其中許多都符合我們討論過的一些策略要務。

I think when we think about the growth in the C&I and some of the special niche businesses that we have, there's definitely some technology investments that we put forth.

我認為，當我們考慮 C&I 的成長以及我們擁有的一些特殊利基業務時，我們肯定會進行一些技術投資。

That said, a lot of it from a foundation perspective is already there.

也就是說，從基礎的角度來看，很多內容已經存在。

It's just enhancements at this point for things that were already put in place, but really largely aligned with what we've talked about on the strategic side, mostly focused on some of the C&I stuff.

目前這只是對已經到位的事情的增強，但實際上在很大程度上與我們在策略方面討論的內容一致，主要集中在一些 C&I 方面。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Can you talk about how you're thinking about deposit betas and deposit mix as rates come down?

您能否談談隨著利率下降，您如何看待存款貝塔值和存款組合？

Is there still a lag in how deposit yields come down as rates come down?

隨著利率的下降，存款收益率的下降是否仍存在滯後性？

And do NIB deposits start to rebound once we get to a certain level in rates?

一旦利率達到一定水平，NIB 存款是否會開始反彈？

So yeah, if you can expand on that and just talk about how you're thinking about deposit costs through maybe the first rate cut versus the next few rate cuts.

所以，是的，如果你可以擴展這一點，並透過第一次降息與接下來的幾次降息來談談你如何考慮存款成本。

Yeah.

是的。

Manon, this is Travis.

曼農，這是崔維斯。

So I do think there is some lag on the beta side on the way down.

所以我確實認為測試版的下降有一些滯後。

Our model assumes around 35% beta on the way down.

我們的模型假設貝塔值會下降 35% 左右。

As you can see, the cycle to date was 57% on the way up.

正如您所看到的，迄今為止的周期上漲了 57%。

Relative to non-interest bearing, our budget and our forecast assumes that it remains relatively stable as a percentage of total deposits, around 23%.

相對於無息存款，我們的預算和預測假設其佔總存款的比例保持相對穩定，約為 23%。

But I do think there is a terminal point at rates -- with rates that you do continue to build that back up.

但我確實認為利率有一個終點——利率確實會繼續建立支撐。

And obviously, as we expand C&I and treasury management, I mean, those are strategic initiatives that are in place to continue to grow non-interest deposits faster than what we actually include in our budget.

顯然，隨著我們擴大 C&I 和財務管理，我的意思是，這些都是戰略舉措，旨在繼續以快於我們實際納入預算的速度增長非利息存款。

So that's some thoughts around that.

這是圍繞這個問題的一些想法。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

On the loan growth guide of 5% to 7%, I know that includes a makeshift away from investor CRE.

在 5% 至 7% 的貸款成長指引中，我知道其中包括投資者 CRE 的臨時替代。

So can you talk about some of the drivers?

您能談談一些驅動程式嗎？

And also, what does the cadence of that look like?

而且，它的節奏又是什麼樣的呢？

Is that more back-end loaded and do you need some help from the environment there?

後端負載是否更多，您是否需要那裡環境的一些幫助？

Or is that based on customer conversations you're having today, and there's a high degree of confidence that loan growth will accelerate as we get through this year?

或者這是基於您今天與客戶的對話，人們對今年貸款成長將會加速充滿信心？

Yeah.

是的。

It is based on the confidence we have in the conversation with customers and seeing the uptick in their requests from us and the build on our pipeline that we've experienced in the fourth quarter and so far into January.

這是基於我們對與客戶的對話的信心，以及我們看到他們對我們的要求的增加以及我們在第四季度和截至一月份所經歷的管道的建設。

And again, pointing out to the originations in that fourth quarter, $2.2 billion up from that $1.8 billion in the third quarter, and the uptick in our pipelines and C&I's contribution to that pipeline, where it is now the lion's share at 65% of our pipeline.

再次指出第四季的起始額，從第三季的18 億美元增加了22 億美元，我們的管道和C&I 對管道的貢獻有所增加，現在它占我們的最大份額，占我們的65% 。管道。

So we are seeing that activity.

所以我們正在看到這種活動。

Typically, the first quarter is a slow quarter as people get their financial statements in place, and you start seeing progressively more business as the quarters roll on.

通常情況下，第一季是一個緩慢的季度，因為人們會準備好財務報表，並且隨著季度的推移，您會開始看到業務逐漸增加。

Got it.

知道了。

And the loan-to-deposit ratio should stay at about these levels of between 95% to 105%?

貸存比應該保持在95%到105%之間的水平嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matthew Breese, Stephens.

馬修·布里斯，史蒂芬斯。

Good afternoon, everybody.

大家下午好。

I had a few questions, bear with me.

我有幾個問題，請耐心等待。

First, I was hoping, on the NII guide, could you provide, just for context -- I would love a sense of how dynamic it is -- what the guide would be or estimate what the guide would be under a no or minimum rate cut scenario for the year?

首先，我希望，關於 NII 指南，您能否提供一下背景資訊——我希望了解它的動態性——指南會是什麼，或者估計在無費率或最低費率下指南會是什麼。削減今年的情景？

It's effectively captured in the 3% to 5% range that we provided.

它在我們提供的 3% 到 5% 範圍內被有效捕獲。

If rates stayed flat, then we think that there would still be upside in NII and margin from our current levels.

如果利率保持平穩，那麼我們認為NII 和利潤率仍將較當前水準有上升空間。

Again, the most exposure we would have is to significantly lower rates on the long end.

同樣，我們最大的風險敞口是大幅降低長期利率。

So absent that, the most other interest rate scenarios would end up in the guide that we provided.

因此，如果沒有這一點，大多數其他利率情境最終都會出現在我們提供的指南中。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And I think you had also alluded that the NIM has already started to show some stabilization, hopefully stabilization in the first quarter.

我認為您也提到淨利差已經開始表現出一定程度的穩定，希望在第一季能夠穩定。

Could you provide some detail as to how the NIM provides on a monthly basis throughout the fourth quarter and if we started to see that stabilization already?

您能否提供一些有關淨息差在第四季度按月提供情況的詳細信息，以及我們是否已經開始看到這種穩定？

We did.

我們做到了。

November was the low point, I would say, on a monthly basis.

我想說，從月度來看，11 月是最低點。

When we were on the call last time, we looked back at six consecutive months of generally stable NII and margin.

當我們上次參加電話會議時，我們回顧了連續六個月整體穩定的NII和利潤率。

Some of the factors that we've already talked about in terms of shortening up the liabilities and other things provided a little bit of pressure in the fourth quarter.

我們已經討論過的一些因素，包括縮短負債和其他因素，這給第四季度帶來了一些壓力。

But I would say that the margin, again, was at its low point in November.

但我想說的是，11 月的利潤率再次處於最低點。

If you look at what we originated, loan yields, loan origination yields also bottomed in November and bounced back in December.

如果你看看我們的起源，貸款收益率、貸款起源收益率也在 11 月觸底，並在 12 月反彈。

But deposit, new deposit origination costs actually declined throughout the quarter.

但整個季度的存款、新存款發起成本實際上有所下降。

So October was the high point and November was lower and December was even lower than that.

因此，10 月是最高點，11 月較低，12 月甚至更低。

One thing I would throw out there, too, we do provide, obviously, in the deck what our loan origination yields are.

我還要拋出一件事，顯然，我們確實在甲板上提供了我們的貸款發放收益率。

And they were declined 8 basis points in the quarter.

該季度下降了 8 個基點。

But new deposit origination costs declined 11 basis points in the quarter, which feeds into the commentary we've provided on spreads.

但本季新存款發起成本下降了 11 個基點，這反映在我們對利差的評論中。

So November again, was a low point on the margin.

因此，11 月再次成為邊緣的低點。

December was somewhat better, if that's helpful.

如果有幫助的話，十二月會好一點。

Yeah.

是的。

Any frame of reference for what the difference was low to high?

有什麼參考框架可以說明從低到高的差異嗎？

It wasn't that significant, to be honest.

老實說，這並不重要。

I think November was 4 or 5 basis points lower than December.

我認為 11 月比 12 月低 4 或 5 個基點。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

A couple other quick ones.

其他幾個快速的。

I noticed that service charges on deposit accounts was quite a bit lower quarter to quarter, like 15%.

我注意到存款帳戶的服務費季比季度低很多，例如 15%。

Was that driven by the conversion?

這是由轉換驅動的嗎？

And should we expect that line to come back to its normal $10.5 million level.

我們是否應該預期這條線會回到 1050 萬美元的正常水平？

Yeah.

是的。

So for about a month around the conversion, we waived certain transactional fees.

因此，在轉換前後大約一個月的時間裡，我們免除了某些交易費用。

If you look at the decline, it was about $1.5 million, $2 million.

如果你看一下下降幅度，大約是 150 萬美元、200 萬美元。

That's exactly what that was.

就是這樣。

So otherwise, that would have been flat.

否則，情況就會持平。

Obviously, we put on a lot of deposits throughout the fourth quarter, customer deposits, so that should continue to drive deposit service charges going forward.

顯然，我們在第四季度存入了大量客戶存款，因此未來應該會繼續推動存款服務費的上漲。

That'll also be supplemented by the treasury management stuff we talked about that generates deposit revenue as well in the non-interest income area.

我們談到的國庫管理工作也將對此進行補充，這些管理工作也會在非利息收入領域產生存款收入。

Okay.

好的。

And then on the average balance sheet, it struck me as odd, cash balances or interest with bank deposits was down 90 basis points quarter to quarter to 4.6%.

然後，在平均資產負債表上，令我感到奇怪的是，現金餘額或銀行存款利息季度環比下降了 90 個基點，降至 4.6%。

I usually look at that as kind of a Fed Funds proxy.

我通常將其視為聯邦基金的代理。

What happened there?

那裡發生了什麼事？

What drove yields down so substantially in cash categories?

是什麼導致現金類別的收益率大幅下降？

I think you're generally right.

我認為你大致上是對的。

So we go through an accrual process to estimate what the cash payments received from the Fed are.

因此，我們透過權責發生製流程來估算從聯準會收到的現金支付額。

The actual payments do tend to move around a little bit.

實際付款確實會略有變動。

So there are certain credits that go in and out there, so you can have a yield that may not directly align with the interest on overnight reserves.

因此，有些信貸會進出，因此您的收益率可能與隔夜準備金的利息並不直接一致。

Okay.

好的。

But generally speaking, we should figure -- model that back to Fed Funds.

但一般來說，我們應該將其建模回聯邦基金。

Yeah, I think that's generally right.

是的，我認為這通常是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

On page 11 of the presentation, you showed the multifamily portfolio in pretty good detail.

在簡報的第 11 頁，您非常詳細地展示了多戶型投資組合。

What struck me was that a number of these geographies have weighted average debt service coverage ratios, sub 1.4 times, which to me feels a little bit risky given the repricing dynamics.

令我震驚的是，其中許多地區的加權平均償債覆蓋率低於 1.4 倍，考慮到重新定價的動態，我覺得這有點冒險。

So one, I'm curious, those debt service coverage ratios, are those at origination or are they updated?

那麼，我很好奇，這些償債覆蓋率是最初的還是更新的呢？

And then two, do you happen to know what the existing loan yield is on this book versus updated?

第二，您是否知道這本書上現有的貸款收益率與更新後的貸款收益率是多少？

Yeah.

是的。

The weighted average debt service coverage are current.

加權平均償債覆蓋率是最新的。

They're based on recent rent rolls.

它們基於最近的租金記錄。

We update that and the loan to values on a regular basis.

我們定期更新該數據和貸款的價值。

I don't have the loan yield in front of me, but I will tell you again, when we look at that repricing, we've not had to modify any of the terms on our repricing and our forward look where we assess each loan that reprices over the next 12 months, we expect the same results.

我面前沒有貸款收益率，但我會再次告訴你，當我們考慮重新定價時，我們不必修改重新定價的任何條款以及我們評估每筆貸款的前瞻性如果在未來12 個月內重新定價，我們預計會出現相同的結果。

But we'll have to look that up.

但我們必須查一下。

I don't know if you have it, Travis.

我不知道你有沒有，崔維斯。

Yeah.

是的。

So I don't have the full portfolio in front of me, but I'll try and give you some color that may be helpful.

因此，我面前沒有完整的作品集，但我會盡力為您提供一些可能有幫助的顏色。

So as we show on that page, Matt, we have $420 million of fully rent-controlled loans.

正如我們在該頁面上顯示的那樣，馬特，我們擁有 4.2 億美元的完全租金管制貸款。

Those would be the lowest-yielding segment, and that's 4.6% yield.

這些將是收益率最低的部分，即 4.6% 的收益率。

We have another, call it, $1.8 billion, I'd say, of exposure to properties that have some amount of rent control in them, and that portfolio yields $545 million.

我想說，我們還有另一個，稱之為 18 億美元，投資於具有一定租金管制的房產，該投資組合的收益為 5.45 億美元。

So I think when you look broadly at multifamily, you're going to be closer in total to that $545 million yield, give or take.

因此，我認為，當您廣泛關注多戶住宅時，無論給予還是接受，您的總收益將更接近 5.45 億美元。

And those buckets, the $420 million of pure rent-regulated and the $1.8 billion of some rent-regulated, those passed the stress testing you went through as well?

那些水桶，4.2 億美元的純租金管制和 18 億美元的一些租金管制，那些也通過了您所經歷的壓力測試嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

And it's -- the $420 million is pure rent-regulated, and as -- it's $1.4 billion, which is partial, 20% or less rent-regulated.

其中 4.2 億美元是純粹受租金管制的，而 14 億美元是部分受租金管制的，即 20% 或更少。

Okay.

好的。

And I know I'm being long-winded, but this is my last one.

我知道我很囉嗦，但這是我最後一次。

Ira, you had mentioned some frustration with overall profitability levels.

Ira，您提到了對整體盈利水平的一些挫敗感。

Can you better define for us at which level you'd be satisfied, profitability-wise, maybe as measured by ROA or ROTC?

您能否更好地為我們定義您對盈利能力的滿意程度（可能透過 ROA 或 ROTC 來衡量）？

And as we think about the forward model here, when do you think we can get back to, let's call it, a 1% ROA for the bank?

當我們考慮這裡的遠期模型時，您認為我們什麼時候可以回到銀行的 1% ROA？

I don't want to go against the guidance that Travis provided, but I am pretty optimistic about where I think we're going to be in 2024.

我不想違背 Travis 提供的指導，但我對 2024 年我們的發展前景非常樂觀。

We were generating 60% of return on tangible common at the end of last year.

截至去年底，我們的有形普通股回報率為 60%。

I think that's an appropriate level that we should begin to target, and we should get back there.

我認為這是我們應該開始瞄準的適當水平，並且我們應該回到那裡。

Okay.

好的。

I'll leave it there.

我會把它留在那裡。

Thanks for taking all my questions.

感謝您回答我所有的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'm showing no further questions at this time.

我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。

I'll turn the call back over to Ira Robbins for any closing remarks.

我會將電話轉回給艾拉·羅賓斯（Ira Robbins）以供結束發言。

I just want to say thank you for dialing in today, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

我只想感謝您今天撥通電話，我們期待下個季度與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you all for participating.

感謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。