Valley National Bancorp (VLY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by.

您好，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to the Q4 2024 Valley National Bancorp earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Valley National Bancorp 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, Travis Lan.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人 Travis Lan。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Valley's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加 Valley 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

I'm joined today by CEO, Ira Robbins; President, Tom Iadanza; and Chief Credit Officer, Mark Saeger.

今天與我一起參加活動的有執行長艾拉羅賓斯 (Ira Robbins)；總裁湯姆‧伊丹札 (Tom Iadanza)；以及首席信貸官 Mark Saeger。

Before we begin, I would like to make everyone aware that our quarterly earnings release and supporting documents can be found on our company website at valley.com. When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results.

在我們開始之前，我想讓大家知道，我們的季度收益報告和支持文件可以在我們公司的網站 valley.com 上找到。在討論我們的結果時，我們參考非公認會計準則指標，即從報告的結果中排除某些項目。

Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures.

請參閱今天的收益報告以了解這些非公認會計準則指標的對帳情況。

Additionally, I would like to highlight Slide two of our earnings presentation and remind you that comments made during this call may contain forward-looking statements relating to Valley National Bancorp and the banking industry.

此外，我想重點介紹我們的收益報告的第二張投影片，並提醒您，本次電話會議中的評論可能包含與 Valley National Bancorp 和銀行業的前瞻性陳述。

Valley encourages all participants to refer to our SEC filings, including those found on Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K for a complete discussion of forward-looking statements and the factors that could cause actual results to differ from those statements.

Valley 鼓勵所有參與者參考我們的 SEC 文件，包括 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格，以全面了解前瞻性陳述以及可能導致實際結果與這些陳述不同的因素。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ira Robbins.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給艾拉羅賓斯 (Ira Robbins)。

Thank you, Travis.

謝謝你，崔維斯。

During the fourth quarter of 2024, Valley reported net income of approximately $116 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.20. This compared to net income and earnings per share of $98 million and $0.18 a quarter ago.

2024 年第四季度，Valley 報告淨收入約為 1.16 億美元，每股攤薄收益為 0.20 美元。相比之下，上一季的淨收入和每股收益分別為 9,800 萬美元和 0.18 美元。

Sequential growth in reported net income reflected a reversal of an income tax reserve due to the expiration of the statutes of limitations associated with certain prior tax credits.

報告淨收入的連續成長反映了由於與某些先前稅收抵免相關的訴訟時效到期而導致的所得稅儲備的逆轉。

This was partially offset by an elevated loan loss provision associated with higher loan charge-offs.

但這增幅被因貸款核銷額增加而產生的貸款損失準備金增加部分抵銷。

Pretax pre-provision earnings were stable as strong net interest income growth was generally offset by a handful of discrete expenses.

稅前撥備前收益保持穩定，因為強勁的淨利息收入成長通常被少數零散支出所抵銷。

As you are aware, our efforts in 2024 focus on strengthening the balance sheet and normalizing certain metrics that outliers relative to peers.

如您所知，我們 2024 年的努力重點是加強資產負債表和規範某些相對於同業而言異常的指標。

The progress that we have made is significant, and we outperformed the preliminary year-end targets, which we laid out back in April.

我們取得的進展是巨大的，並且超額完成了我們在四月制定的年底初步目標。

As a result of our focused execution, we entered 2025 with a fortified balance sheet that will enable us to operate from a position of financial flexibility and strength.

由於我們專注的執行，我們在進入2025年時擁有了強勁的資產負債表，這將使我們能夠在財務靈活性和實力方面開展營運。

While our strategic priorities remain consistent, the specific initiatives that support our goals continue to evolve.

雖然我們的策略重點保持一致，但支持我們目標的具體措施也在不斷發展。

From a deposit perspective, we are focused on leveraging our specialty verticals and enhancing our commercial customer base.

從存款角度來看，我們專注於利用我們的專業垂直市場並增強我們的商業客戶群。

We expect to supplement these efforts with branch deposit growth as we reprioritize retail delivery and customer acquisition.

隨著我們重新調整零售交付和客戶獲取的優先順序，我們期望透過分行存款成長來補充這些努力。

On the loan side, expected runoff of certain transactional CRE loans should be offset by focused origination efforts in the C&I, owner-occupied and consumer areas.

在貸款方面，某些交易性CRE貸款的預期流失應透過專注於C&I、自住和消費者領域的發放工作來彌補。

We anticipate that this will support a methodical reduction in our CRE concentration ratio in 2025.

我們預計，這將支持我們在 2025 年有序降低 CRE 集中度。

Finally, we continue to prioritize our suite of value-add commercially adjacent products and services that support our fee income growth.

最後，我們繼續優先考慮一系列支持我們費用收入成長的增值商業相關產品和服務。

While most of our dialogue around our 2023 core conversion was focused on the expense synergies that we have realized, it also set the foundation for a significant enhancement in our product offerings and service capabilities.

雖然我們圍繞 2023 年核心轉換的大部分對話都集中在我們已經實現的費用協同效應上，但它也為顯著提升我們的產品供應和服務能力奠定了基礎。

A great example of this is on the Treasury Solutions side where we have augmented and upskilled the talent base with a streamlined operating model and the technology to better serve our commercial clients.

一個很好的例子就是財務解決方案方面，我們透過精簡的營運模式和技術擴充和提升了人才基礎，以便更好地服務我們的商業客戶。

We formally rolled out a new service and pricing model in 2024, and we couldn't be more excited about the early results.

我們於 2024 年正式推出了新的服務和定價模式，我們對早期成果感到非常興奮。

On an annualized basis, deposit service revenue in the second half of 2024 was a full $11 million higher than for the same period a year ago, representing a 27% increase.

以年率計算，2024 年下半年的存款服務收入比去年同期高出整整 1,100 萬美元，增幅為 27%。

Despite external volatility throughout the year, our transaction deposits at December 31, 2024, were $1.7 billion or 5% higher than a year ago, largely owing to the commercial account onboarding to the treasury platform.

儘管全年外部波動，但截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的交易存款仍比去年同期高出 17 億美元，增幅為 5%，這主要歸功於商業帳戶加入財務平台。

While less impactful from an absolute dollar perspective, we have seen some very strong returns from our investment in enhanced FX capabilities.

雖然從絕對美元角度來看影響較小，但我們對增強外匯能力的投資獲得了非常豐厚的回報。

The annualized run rate for FX fees was $4 million higher in the second half of 2024 than the second half of 2023.

2024 年下半年外匯費用的年化運作率比 2023 年下半年高出 400 萬美元。

This represents over 50% growth and has helped to offset softer swap fees in our capital market business, reflecting the pullback in loan originations.

這意味著超過50%的增幅，並有助於抵銷資本市場業務中掉期費用的下降，反映出貸款發放量的回落。

In 2025, we will preserve our balance sheet position and increase our focus on enhancing profitability.

2025年，我們將維持資產負債表狀況，並更重視提高獲利能力。

With this in mind, we have laid out preliminary 2025 guidance on slide six of our investor deck.

考慮到這一點，我們在投資者簡報第六張幻燈片中列出了 2025 年的初步指導。

We anticipate continued net interest income momentum as a result of earning asset growth and funding cost improvement against the backdrop of positively sloping yield curve.

我們預計，在殖利率曲線呈正向傾斜的背景下，生息資產的成長和融資成本的改善將推動淨利息收入持續維持成長動能。

The continuation of our fee income progress and the maintenance of our expense control will underpin the expected normalization of pre-provision profitability as the year unfolds.

我們費用收入的持續成長和費用控制的維持將為今年撥備前獲利能力的正常化奠定基礎。

From a credit perspective, we are confident that our proactive efforts throughout 2024 and in the fourth quarter specifically, will lead to a meaningfully lower credit cost in 2025.

從信貸角度來看，我們相信，我們在 2024 年全年、特別是第四季度的積極努力將顯著降低 2025 年的信貸成本。

We believe the rapid expansion of our allowance coverage in 2024 is likely behind us, and we expect more modest allowance coverage growth going forward.

我們相信，2024 年配額覆蓋率的快速擴張可能已經過去，我們預計未來配額覆蓋率將出現更溫和的成長。

Slide seven provides additional detail on our net interest income forecast.

第七張投影片提供了有關我們的淨利息收入預測的更多詳細資訊。

While we traditionally utilized the year-end implied forward curve to forecast, we acknowledge that longer end rates moved sharply higher at the end of the year.

雖然我們傳統上利用年底隱含遠期曲線進行預測，但我們承認，較長期利率在年底會大幅上升。

As such, our net interest income guidance range captures a variety of downside rate scenarios.

因此，我們的淨利息收入指引範圍涵蓋了各種下行利率情境。

All else equal, we would expect a continuation of higher interest rates to be incrementally additive to our forecast.

在其他條件相同的情況下，我們預期利率持續上升將逐步增強我們的預測。

The resulting profitability expectations associated with our guidance are laid out on Slide eight.

與我們的指導相關的最終盈利預期在第八張幻燈片中列出。

The light blue bars indicate our forecast for the full year of 2025 as well as the fourth quarter of 2025 specifically.

淺藍色長條圖表示我們對 2025 年全年以及 2025 年第四季的預測。

This should help in form the ramp that we expect through the year as our asset repricing tailwind continues to play out.

隨著資產重新定價的順風繼續發揮作用，這應該有助於形成我們預計全年的成長勢頭。

Similarly, we anticipate that both net charge-offs and our provision will decline significantly as the year progresses.

同樣，我們預計，隨著時間的推移，淨沖銷額和撥備額都將大幅下降。

I'm extremely excited about the opportunities ahead of us in 2025.

我對 2025 年面臨的機會感到非常興奮。

The interest rate environment has normalized, and our customers are feeling optimistic about the economy.

利率環境已經正常化，我們的客戶對經濟感到樂觀。

We are confident in our ability to improve profitability throughout the year, and we will continue to diligently manage the balance sheet while we execute on our strategic priorities.

我們有信心全年提高獲利能力，並將在執行策略重點的同時繼續認真管理資產負債表。

Slide nine illustrates the longer-term value that we continue to create for our stakeholders.

第九張幻燈片展示了我們繼續為利害關係人創造的長期價值。

Our tangible book value inclusive of dividends, has now doubled in the last seven years, and our greater growth continues to outpace peers.

包括股息在內的有形帳面價值在過去七年裡翻了一番，而且我們的成長速度持續超過同業。

We remain focused on customer acquisition in both the commercial and consumer areas.

我們仍然專注於商業和消費者領域的客戶獲取。

These customers contribute to our long-term revenue opportunities and the future performance of our institution.

這些客戶為我們的長期收入機會和機構的未來表現做出了貢獻。

As we have continuously discussed, we are in much more diverse bank today than when I took over as CEO.

正如我們不斷討論的那樣，今天我們銀行的多元化程度比我擔任執行長時高得多。

Our evolution into new business lines and geographies has created opportunities that were previously unavailable to us.

我們向新的業務線和地區拓展，創造了以前無法獲得的機會。

Going forward, we will continue to evolve with an internal focus on optimizing our customer network and balance sheet to become a better bank for our employees, our clients and our shareholders.

展望未來，我們將繼續發展，重點優化客戶網路和資產負債表，成為一家為我們的員工、客戶和股東提供更好的銀行。

Before I turn the call over to Tom, I wanted to offer our team's thoughts to those individuals that have been impacted by the wildfires in California.

在把電話轉給湯姆之前，我想代表我們團隊向那些受到加州野火影響的人們表達我們的想法。

While we have minimal direct loan exposure to the impacted areas, we are committed to the Greater Los Angeles market, where we have recently opened a branch in Beverly Hills.

雖然我們對受影響地區的直接貸款風險很小，但我們致力於大洛杉磯市場，我們最近在比佛利山莊開設了一家分行。

We are always there for those in need and our offer support to communities, customers and employees that have been impacted by these tragic events.

我們始終為有需要的人提供幫助，並為受這些悲劇影響的社區、客戶和員工提供支援。

With that, I will turn the call over to Tom and Travis to talk through the quarter's financial highlights and results.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給湯姆和特拉維斯，討論本季的財務亮點和業績。

After Travis concludes his remarks, Tom, Travis, myself and Mark Saeger, our Chief Credit Officer, will be available for your questions.

在崔維斯結束演講後，湯姆、崔維斯、我本人以及我們的首席信貸官馬克·塞格爾將回答大家的提問。

Thank you, Ira.

謝謝你，艾拉。

Slide 10 illustrates the quarter's deposit trends.

投影片 10 展示了本季的存款趨勢。

Direct customer deposits grew $1.7 billion during the quarter, which enabled a $2 billion reduction in higher cost in direct deposits.

本季直接客戶存款增加了 17 億美元，這使得直接存款成本減少了 20 億美元。

Noninterest deposit balances increased for the second consecutive quarter and now comprise 23% of total deposits, up from 22% a quarter ago.

非利息存款餘額連續第二季增加，目前佔總存款的 23%，高於上一季的 22%。

For the second consecutive quarter, we opened over 25,000 new deposit accounts, including over 10,000 new noninterest accounts.

我們連續第二季開設了超過 25,000 個新的存款帳戶，其中包括超過 10,000 個新的非利息帳戶。

In addition to our strong growth, we have been extremely successful in reducing deposit costs in the wake of Fed funds target rate reductions.

除了強勁的成長之外，我們在聯邦基金目標利率下調之後還非常成功地降低了存款成本。

During the quarter, we reduced deposit costs by 31 basis points, which resulted in a strong deposit beta of 51%.

在本季度，我們將存款成本降低了 31 個基點，從而使存款貝塔係數達到 51%。

We estimate that our average cost of deposits was 2.87% for the month of December, which includes only a partial benefit from the reductions implemented in the wake of the final Fed action of the year.

我們估計，12 月的平均存款成本為 2.87%，其中僅包括聯準會今年最後一次行動後實施的降息帶來的部分收益。

The next slide provides more detail on the composition of our deposit portfolio by delivery channel and business line.

下一張投影片將更詳細地介紹我們的存款組合按交付管道和業務線構成的組成。

Growth during the quarter was broad-based, with branch deposits increasing 4% and specialty deposits increasing closer to 5%.

本季的成長基礎廣泛，其中分行存款成長 4%，專業存款成長接近 5%。

The majority of our special deposit growth was in our International and Technology business lines.

我們特別存款的成長主要來自國際和技術業務線。

Slide 12 illustrates the components of the quarter's lending activity.

投影片 12 展示了本季貸款活動的組成部分。

We continue to manage the runoff of transactional multifamily and investor CRE, which declined over $600 million during the quarter.

我們持續管理交易型多戶型和投資者 CRE 的流失，這些流失在本季減少了 6 億多美元。

Construction balances declined another $350 million, partially as a result of completed projects transitioning to permanent owner-occupied loans.

建築業餘金額又減少了 3.5 億美元，部分原因是已完成的項目轉為永久自住貸款。

As of December 31, 2024, our CRE concentration ratio was 362% versus 421% a quarter ago and 474% at the end of 2023.

截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們的 CRE 集中率為 362%，而上一季為 421%，2023 年底為 474%。

I am extremely proud of the significant progress that we have made in improving this metric.

我對我們在改進這項指標方面取得的重大進展感到非常自豪。

From a longer-term perspective, the combination of C&I and owner-occupied CRE loans increased 17% during the year.

從長期來看，商業和工業貸款以及自住 CRE 貸款總額在年內增加了 17%。

Diverse activity across our geographic footprint and nationwide businesses supports our expectation for high single-digit to low teens growth in those asset classes for 2025.

我們遍布地理範圍和全國範圍的業務的多樣化活動支持了我們對 2025 年這些資產類別實現高個位數至低十位數增長的預期。

Similarly, indirect auto loans increased 17% in 2024.

同樣，間接汽車貸款在 2024 年將增加 17%。

These are super prime loans with a low loss history that provide additional diverse growth opportunities to the bank.

這些是具有低損失歷史的超級優質貸款，為銀行提供了額外的多樣化成長機會。

While new origination yields have declined in line with broader interest rates, our portfolio yield declined more modestly given the 40% of our loan portfolio that is fixed.

雖然新發放貸款收益率隨著整體利率水準下降，但考慮到我們的貸款組合中有 40% 是固定的，我們的投資組合收益率下降幅度較小。

Our quarterly loan beta of 39% compares favourably to the 51% deposit beta that I referenced earlier.

我們的季度貸款貝塔值為 39%，與我之前提到的 51% 存款貝塔值相比更為有利。

Slide 13 provides additional detail on the composition of our commercial real estate portfolio by property type and geography.

投影片 13 提供了我們商業房地產投資組合按房地產類型和地理位置構成的更多詳細資訊。

Portfolio remains diverse by geography and asset class and our borrower base remains generally strong and well positioned.

投資組合仍然按地域和資產類別多樣化，我們的借款人基礎總體上仍然強勁且處於有利地位。

During the quarter, we proactively addressed a handful of CRE loans, which enables us to enter 2025 the cleanest slate from a credit perspective.

在本季度，我們積極處理了少量 CRE 貸款，這使我們能夠從信貸角度進入最乾淨的 2025 年。

As Ira stated earlier, and you can see on our Slide six guidance, we believe that most of the CRE charge-offs are now behind us.

正如 Ira 之前所說，您可以在我們的第六張投影片指南中看到，我們相信大多數 CRE 沖銷現在都已經過去了。

With that, I will turn the call over to Travis to provide additional insight into the quarter's financials.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給特拉維斯，讓他提供有關本季財務狀況的更多見解。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

I'll jump to Slide 17, which highlights the third consecutive quarter of both net interest income growth and net interest margin expansion.

我將跳到第 17 張投影片，該投影片重點介紹了淨利息收入連續第三個季度成長和淨息差擴大。

Net interest income increased 3% from the third quarter and is now 6% higher than a year ago.

淨利息收入較第三季成長 3%，較去年同期成長 6%。

The quarter's strong core deposit growth enabled the repayment of nearly $2 billion of higher cost maturing in direct CDs.

本季核心存款強勁成長，使得直接存單到期償還近 20 億美元的高成本貸款成為可能。

This, combined with our success in reducing customer deposit costs in the wake of Fed cuts enabled us to more than offset the interest income headwind associated with adjustable loan repricing and the mid-quarter CRE loan sale.

這項措施加上我們在聯準會降息後成功降低客戶存款成本，使我們能夠抵銷可調整貸款重新定價和季度中期商業房地產貸款銷售帶來的利息收入阻力。

Our guidance of 9% to 12% net interest income growth in 2025 conservatively reflects a lower rate environment.

我們保守預測 2025 年淨利息收入成長率將達到 9% 至 12%，這反映了較低的利率環境。

We would expect to migrate towards or beyond the upper end of this range if interest rates were to remain elevated or increase further, all else equal.

如果在其他條件相同的情況下，利率保持高位或進一步上升，我們預計利率將接近或超過此範圍的上限。

Our net interest margin should increase throughout the year as funding costs decline and we benefit from the asset repricing tailwind on the fixed rate component of our loan portfolio.

隨著融資成本下降以及我們受益於貸款組合中固定利率部分的資產重新定價順風，我們的淨利差應該會在全年增加。

The next slide illustrates the quarter's stability in adjusted noninterest income exclusive of an $8 million loss associated with our CRE loan sale.

下一張投影片說明了本季調整後非利息收入的穩定性，不包括與我們的 CRE 貸款銷售相關的 800 萬美元損失。

The majority of the charge was related to transaction costs.

大部分費用與交易成本有關。

Despite the quarter's stability, underlying trends were more positive as revenues in our capital markets, wealth and insurance areas offset lower BOLI income and a negative valuation adjustment on our Fintech investment portfolio.

儘管本季表現穩定，但基本趨勢更加積極，因為我們資本市場、財富和保險領域的收入抵消了 BOLI 收入的下降以及金融科技投資組合的負面估值調整。

Annualized adjusted noninterest income for the second half of 2024 was $236 million or 13% higher than $208 million for the second half of 2023 annualized.

2024 年下半年經調整年化非利息收入為 2.36 億美元，較 2023 年下半年經調整年化非利息收入 2.08 億美元高出 13%。

Ira highlighted a few key drivers of this progress in his remarks.

艾拉在演講中強調了這項進展的幾個關鍵驅動因素。

We plan to further leverage the investments that we have made in our treasury solutions, FX and syndication platforms and drive additional growth contributions from swaps and wealth management throughout 2025, which should further contribute to our profitability normalization.

我們計劃進一步利用我們在財務解決方案、外匯和銀團平台上的投資，並在 2025 年推動掉期和財富管理帶來額外的成長貢獻，這將進一步促進我們的獲利能力正常化。

On Slide 19, you can see that adjusted noninterest expenses of $276 million were 4.5% higher than the third quarter and approximately 1% higher than the fourth quarter of 2023.

在投影片 19 上，您可以看到調整後的非利息支出為 2.76 億美元，比第三季高出 4.5%，比 2023 年第四季高出約 1%。

Most expense line items remained very well controlled during the quarter and the higher technology costs were partially the result of the few discrete items.

本季度，大多數費用項目仍得到良好的控制，而技術成本的上升部分是由於少數獨立項目造成的。

For the year, adjusted expenses increased less than 1% and we remain focused on controlling future expense growth to ensure that incremental revenue gains support our profitability improvement.

今年，調整後的費用成長不到1％，我們仍將重點控制未來的費用成長，以確保增量收入成長能夠支持我們的獲利能力提高。

Slide 20 illustrates our asset quality and reserve trends.

幻燈片 20 展示了我們的資產品質和儲備趨勢。

The increase in nonaccrual loans at December 31, 2024, was partially the result of a few larger criticized CRE relationships which importantly are performing as contractually obligated and continue to pay on schedule.

2024 年 12 月 31 日不計息貸款的增加，部分是由於一些較大的受到批評的 CRE 關係造成的，重要的是，這些關係履行了合約義務並繼續按時付款。

Accruing past due loans declined to 20 basis points as a pair of CRE loans, which we discussed last quarter were repaid and brought current, respectively.

由於我們在上季討論過的一對 CRE 貸款分別償還並轉為定期貸款，逾期貸款累積下降至 20 個基點。

Net loan charge-offs increased from the linked quarter, mainly as a result of two larger CRE and C&I credits.

淨貸款沖銷額較上一季增加，主要因為兩項較大的 CRE 和 C&I 信貸。

During the quarter, our allowance coverage ratio increased 3 basis points to 1.17% and stands at the highest level in the past five years.

本季度，我們的撥備覆蓋率上升3個基點至1.17％，達到近五年來的最高水準。

We expect the pace of allowance coverage growth to slow meaningfully in 2025, supporting the expected provision decline, which Ira referenced.

我們預計，2025 年配額覆蓋率的成長速度將顯著放緩，從而支持 Ira 提到的預期撥備下降。

The next slide illustrates the sequential increase in our tangible book value and capital ratios.

下一張投影片說明了我們有形帳面價值和資本比率的連續成長。

Tangible book value increased despite headwinds from the OCI impact associated with our available for sale securities portfolio.

儘管我們的可供出售證券投資組合受到 OCI 衝擊的阻力，但有形帳面價值仍有所增加。

Our risk-based capital ratios increased significantly during the quarter as a result of strong reported earnings, the common equity offering and our executed loan sale.

由於強勁的報告收益、普通股發行和我們執行的貸款銷售，我們的風險資本比率在本季度大幅增加。

We are extremely well positioned from a capital perspective and have the financial flexibility to execute on our strategic initiatives while preserving our balance sheet strength in the coming year.

從資本角度來看，我們處於極其有利的地位，並且具有財務靈活性來執行我們的戰略計劃，同時在來年保持我們的資產負債表實力。

With that, I will turn the call back to the operator to begin Q&A.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給接線生，開始問答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

[Anon Guilia, Morgan Stanley].

[摩根士丹利，匿名]

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

This is Brian Wilczynski filling in from Anon.

這是 Anon 的 Brian Wilczynski。

Can you update us on what impact the shape of the yield curve is having on your NII outlook?

您能否向我們介紹殖利率曲線的形狀對您的 NII 展望有何影響？

I know previously you talked about mid- to high single-digit growth.

我知道您之前談到中高個位數的成長。

Since then, we've seen a couple of cuts get taken out of the short end of the curve, the long end of the curve is now higher.

自那時起，我們看到曲線短端的幅度有所下降，而曲線長端的幅度則有所上升。

Can you just unpack the impact that has on your outlook?

您能否簡單解釋一下這對您的觀點有何影響？

Yes, Brian, this is Travis.

是的，布萊恩，我是崔維斯。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So as we've talked about in the past, we are more neutral to the front end of the curve and positively exposed to the longer end of the curve.

因此，正如我們過去所談論的那樣，我們對曲線的前端更加中立，而對曲線的較長端則持積極態度。

So the shape of the curve as it stood at the end of the year relative to [nine thirty] was more beneficial for a net interest income outlook.

因此，相對於[9:30]，年底的曲線形狀對淨利息收入前景較有利。

So that was one of the key drivers of the upwards revision.

所以這是上調預期的關鍵驅動因素之一。

The other key driver is the funding position at year-end was much stronger than it was at nine thirty.

另一個關鍵驅動因素是年底的融資狀況比上午 9:30 時強勁得多。

We talked about the $1.7 billion of direct deposit growth that enabled us to pay off $2 billion of brokered during the quarter.

我們談到了 17 億美元的直接存款成長，這使我們能夠在本季償還 20 億美元的經紀債務。

So we are much better positioned from that perspective.

因此從這個角度來看，我們處於更有利的地位。

We were also more successful reducing deposit costs in our customer base in the wake of the Fed cuts.

聯準會降息之後，我們也更成功地降低了客戶存款成本。

And so that the combination of those three things sets us up for a better NII outlook for '25 than we had previously discussed.

因此，這三者的結合將使我們對 25 年的國家資訊基礎結構 (NII) 前景的預期比我們之前討論的要好。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just a follow-up is on the updated reserve target.

接下來是關於更新的儲備目標。

So you're now targeting a range of 1.2 to 1.25 for the end of this year.

因此，您現在的目標是今年年底的範圍是 1.2 到 1.25。

I think previously, you had communicated about 1.25. I was wondering, should we interpret that range to mean that you're reserve ratio doesn't have to go above 1.25 beyond this year?

我認為之前您曾傳達過大約 1.25 的訊息。我想知道，我們是否應該將該範圍解釋為今年以後您的準備率不必超過 1.25？

Is that sort of a good normalized reserve ratio for us to think about for Valley?

對於矽谷來說，這是否是一個值得我們考慮的良好的標準化準備率？

I think that's correct.

我認為這是正確的。

So I think the addition of a range that's a little bit below that 1.25 reflects the slowdown in migration that we saw in criticized assets during the quarter as well as the fact that ultimately, we will be transitioning from CRE and into C&I, and that's kind of what you see from getting us that [1.17] today to that slightly higher range at the end of the year.

因此，我認為增加略低於 1.25 的範圍反映了我們在本季度看到的受批評資產的遷移放緩，以及最終我們將從 CRE 過渡到 C&I 的事實，這就是您從今天的 [1.17] 到年底略高的範圍所看到的。

But again, with the slowdown in migration of criticized assets, the reserve targets a little bit lower than it had been.

但隨著受批評資產遷移的放緩，儲備目標再次比以前略低。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Anthony Elian, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的安東尼·埃利安 (Anthony Elian)。

Hi everyone.

大家好。

Just a follow up on the reserves.

只是對儲備的後續行動。

Can you talk about the cadence of the reserve build you expect this year?

能談談今年預期的後備建設節奏嗎？

Should we expect most of the build to happen in the first half?

我們是否應該預期大部分建設將在上半年完成？

Or should that be evenly patterned out through this year?

或者說今年應該均勻分佈？

This is Mark Saeger, Anthony.

這是馬克·塞格爾，安東尼。

On the reserve, we would anticipate that there would be a little more growth at the beginning of the year and tapering off through the end, just anticipating how that will flow out.

在儲備方面，我們預期年初會有少量成長，年底則會逐漸減少，只是預測一下會如何發展。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then my follow-up, can you talk about the success you called out on the press release on the direct customer deposit channel.

然後我的後續問題是，您能談談您在新聞稿中提到的直接客戶存款管道的成功嗎？

You know that deposits increased about $1.7 billion from this segment.

您知道這部分的存款增加了約 17 億美元。

Is this the area you expect to drive most of the deposit growth in 2025?

您預計這是 2025 年推動大部分存款成長的領域嗎？

To be clear, we said direct deposits as a catch-up for customer deposit activity.

需要明確的是，我們說直接存款是為了彌補客戶存款活動不足。

So the $1.7 billion of growth was very broad-based across the franchise.

因此，17 億美元的成長對整個特許經營而言非常廣泛。

So branch deposits increased around 4% and our specialty niche has increased around 5%.

因此，分行存款增加了約 4％，而我們的專業業務增加了約 5％。

Within Specialty, we continue to see good activity in international and technology despite a significant reduction in the rate that we offer in our online channel, we still see growth there.

在專業領域，儘管我們在線上管道提供的價格大幅降低，但我們仍然看到國際和技術領域的良好活動。

And then in the branches, it's been more diverse and broad based.

而在分支機構中，它變得更加多樣化和基礎廣泛。

It's a combination of consumer and commercial and some degree, municipal activity as well.

它是消費者和商業的結合，某種程度上也是市政活動的結合。

And just to add to, I think one of the things that we've seen is the outcomes of the positive investments that we've been making in technology and some of the products and services that we've been looking at Valley.

補充一點，我認為我們看到的事情之一是我們在矽谷對科技以及我們一直在關注的一些產品和服務進行的積極投資的成果。

One of them, obviously, was the Treasury Solution here.

其中之一顯然是這裡的財政解決方案。

You get clients just between third and fourth quarter that used our treasury product, deposit balances and those accounts increased about $0.5 billion as well.

僅在第三季和第四季之間，使用我們的財務產品的客戶存款餘額就增加了約 5 億美元。

So we're seeing real receptivity towards those individual products.

因此，我們看到了人們對這些單一產品的真正接受度。

And because of the functionality, we're seeing an increase in deposit balance there.

由於該功能的存在，我們看到那裡的存款餘額增加。

In addition, we were able to grow net new business accounts about 10,000 this year.

此外，今年我們的新商業帳戶淨增加約 10,000 個。

So really, it's comprehensive across the entire balance sheet.

所以實際上，它涵蓋了整個資產負債表。

Yep.

是的。

Thank you for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Given the actions you took to really strengthen the balance sheet in 2024.

考慮到您在 2024 年採取的行動確實增強了資產負債表。

How are you thinking about the medium-term ROE potential of the company, return on tangible?

您如何看待該公司中期的 ROE 潛力和有形回報率？

I think from a longer-term perspective, I think we gave some highlights as to sort of where we think we're going to end the year at a little north of 11%.

我認為從長期來看，我們已經給出了一些重點，表明我們認為今年年底的成長率將略高於 11%。

I think long term, we should definitely be operating north of 15% with an ROA that's above 120 as well.

我認為從長遠來看，我們的營運率肯定應該超過 15%，而且 ROA 也應該超過 120。

And I think those are some of the long-term performance targets that we've outlined here, and we think we have a good pathway towards this.

我認為這些是我們在此概述的一些長期績效目標，並且我們認為我們已經朝著這個目標邁出了良好的一步。

Okay.

好的。

So just to bring in is a pretty big gap.

因此，僅僅引入就存在相當大的差距。

And I guess, how do you bridge that 400 basis points?

我想，您怎麼能彌補這 400 個基點呢？

Obviously, I think really starts with just growing customer accounts and what that shift to the balance sheet looks like.

顯然，我認為真正的開始只是增加客戶帳戶，然後看看資產負債表的變化。

So an improving margin is going to definitely help, we think there's improved noninterest income that's going to come out of some of the initiatives that we've been investing in and obviously managing the operating expenses, which we've been doing a very good job.

因此，利潤率的提高肯定會有所幫助，我們認為非利息收入的提高將源於我們一直在投資的一些舉措，顯然還有對營運費用的管理，我們在這方面做得非常好。

So a lot through positive operating leverage.

因此，很多都是透過積極的經營槓桿來實現的。

Overall that we think we're in a good capital position.

總體而言，我們認為我們的資本狀況良好。

So I don't think it's as big as the lift and maybe as what one will look at from the outside, there's a lot of positive tailwinds here.

因此，我認為它的影響沒有升力那麼大，也許從外部來看，這裡有很多積極的順風。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just coming back to the loan growth guide.

然後回到貸款成長指南。

I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about, I think, it was mid-teens C&I growth.

我想您在準備好的發言中談到了，我認為，這是十幾歲的 C&I 增長。

I guess, maybe I'd love to hear a little bit more color on that.

我想，也許我願意聽到更多關於這方面的詳細解釋。

And then would any portfolio purchases be considered?

那麼，會考慮任何投資組合購買嗎？

Because it's a pretty good growth rate relative to some of your peers?

因為與一些同業相比，這是一個相當不錯的成長率？

Yeah.

是的。

Chris, this is Travis.

克里斯，這是崔維斯。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I think our guide on C&I was high single digits to maybe low teens, not mid-teens.

我認為我們對 C&I 的指導是高個位數到可能低十幾位數，而不是中十幾位數。

I think if you zoom out and consider what happened in 2024, I mean we grew C&I loans $700 million this year, but that includes a $300 million headwind from the sale of our commercial premium finance business.

我認為，如果你縮小範圍並考慮 2024 年發生的事情，我的意思是，我們今年的 C&I 貸款增長了 7 億美元，但其中包括出售商業保費融資業務帶來的 3 億美元逆風。

So if you exclude that, I mean we would have grown on a net basis, $1 billion in C&I.

所以如果你排除這一點，我的意思是我們的商業和工業收入將淨成長 10 億美元。

And kind of organic owner-occupied CRE would have grown another $500 million.

而有機自住 CRE 將會再成長 5 億美元。

It looks like it's up $1.6 billion when you look at the loan table but we did reclassify some investor CRE into that bucket midyear.

從貸款表來看，它似乎增加了 16 億美元，但我們確實在年中將部分投資者 CRE 重新歸類到該類別。

So between C&I and kind of an owner-occupied CRE, in 2024, we were up $1.5 billion.

因此，在 C&I 和自住 CRE 之間，到 2024 年，我們的收益為 15 億美元。

And then residential and consumer would have combined for another couple of hundred million dollars as well.

然後住宅和消費者也將合計獲得另外幾億美元。

So just kind of with no additional growth tailwind, I mean you can replicate those types of results.

所以，只是在沒有額外增長順風的情況下，我的意思是你可以複製這些類型的結果。

And then consider that the C&I pipeline is up over $600 million at [12,124] versus a year ago.

然後考慮一下，與一年前相比，C&I 管道增加了 6 億美元，達到 [12,124]。

And so look, we're seeing good trends across the franchise, both geographically and in terms of our specialty niches.

所以，我們看到整個特許經營都呈現良好的趨勢，無論從地理位置還是從我們的專業領域來看。

Health care and fund finance are two areas that have been key contributors to growth in '24, and we expect continued momentum there in '25.

醫療保健和基金融資是24年經濟成長的兩個主要貢獻者，我們預計這兩個領域將在25年繼續保持成長勢頭。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指令）

Matthew Breese, Stephens.

馬修布里斯，史蒂芬斯。

I was hoping to start just on the cash position of the balance sheet, it's a bit elevated.

我希望從資產負債表的現金狀況開始，但它有點高。

I was hoping you could help me with the deployment time line strategy.

我希望您能幫助我制定部署時間表策略。

And then second, but related securities assets have been steadily climbing now at 11% of total assets.

其次，相關證券資產穩定攀升，目前佔總資產的 11%。

Where do you want that to be?

您希望它在哪裡？

Where do you want the security portfolio to be as a percentage of assets?

您希望證券投資組合佔資產的百分比是多少？

Yeah, Matt, this is Travis.

是的，馬特，這是崔維斯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, you're right, the cash was elevated at the end of the year, and it's for a very good reason, right.

嗯，你說得對，年底現金水準確實有所提高，這是有充分理由的，對吧。

We talked about the core deposit growth.

我們討論了核心存款成長。

We also had the net proceeds from the loan sale and the equity offering.

我們也獲得了貸款出售和股票發行的淨收益。

As we tried to put those to work as much as possible in terms of paying off maturing brokered deposits.

我們盡力利用這些資金來償還到期的經紀存款。

And obviously, we added about $700 million net to the securities portfolio, but we're still left in an elevated cash position.

顯然，我們的證券投資組合淨增加約 7 億美元，但我們的現金狀況仍然較高。

So we do expect that cash will normalize throughout the year.

因此，我們確實預計現金將在全年恢復正常。

But the first quarter from a loan growth perspective is likely to be a little bit slower.

但從貸款成長角度來看，第一季可能會稍微放緩一些。

So it's possible that cash remains some elevated early in the year and then gets put to work as the year proceeds.

因此，現金有可能在年初保持較高水平，然後隨著時間的推移開始發揮作用。

From a securities perspective, we've grown the portfolio about, I think, $1.5 billion, $2 billion last year.

從證券角度來看，我認為去年我們的投資組合成長了約 15 億至 20 億美元。

It's been significant.

這意義重大。

I think longer term, we appreciate and acknowledge that it will continue to increase as a percentage of assets, but that plays out over a relatively long period of time.

我認為從長遠來看，我們理解並承認其在資產中所佔的比例將繼續增加，但這將需要相對較長的時間。

So we're factoring in today, call it, $500 million-plus of growth this year in the securities portfolio to begin that process.

因此，我們今天就將今年證券投資組合中超過 5 億美元的成長考慮在內，以開始這個過程。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I was hoping you could provide an update either year-end or in January of total cost of deposits and maybe help us out with some of your deposit beta expectations for this year?

然後我希望您能在年底或一月提供存款總成本的更新，並能幫助我們了解您對今年存款測試版的一些預期？

Yeah.

是的。

Our December average cost of total deposits was 2.87%.

我們12月份的總存款平均成本為2.87%。

So that was about 7 basis points lower than the average for the quarter.

因此，這比本季的平均值低約 7 個基點。

I would say though that, that doesn't capture, I mean, in December, we paid off $1 billion of brokered, so I don't think you get the full benefit in that amount.

不過我想說的是，這並沒有考慮到，我的意思是，在 12 月份，我們支付了 10 億美元的經紀費用，所以我認為你並沒有獲得這筆金額的全部利益。

And you also had the Fed cut occur pretty late in the month of December.

聯準會降息發生在 12 月底相當晚的時候。

So I don't think you pick up much benefit there either.

所以我也不認為你從那裡得到多少好處。

So the model assumes a 60% downside beta on interest-bearing nonmaturity deposits.

因此，此模型假設計息非定期存款的下行貝塔值為 60%。

When you factor in noninterest, you get to about 50%.

如果將非利息因素考慮進去，則約為 50%。

And so we've actually outperformed that in the wake of the first three Fed cut of the cycle.

因此，在聯準會本輪降息週期的前三次之後，我們的表現實際上超過了這一水平。

And so to the degree we continue to outperform, there would be additional NII upside relative to the guidance that we've laid out.

因此，如果我們繼續表現出色，那麼相對於我們制定的指導方針，NII 將有額外的上行空間。

Great.

偉大的。

And then last one, Ira.

最後一個，艾拉。

I couldn't help but notice you mentioned the return to, or I should say, a [resembled] focus on retail branch banking, perhaps in adding some branches.

我忍不住注意到，您提到了重新關注零售銀行分行，或者說，[類似]關注零售銀行分行，或許會增加一些分行。

Does this envision any sort of market footprint expansion?

這是否預示著某種形式的市場足跡擴張？

If so, where, if not, where do you intend to add more branches?

如果有，請問在哪裡增加分行？

And is that part of the expense guidance for '25?

這是'25年費用指導的一部分嗎？

I think the numbers definitely baked in for what we're looking at doing within the retail footprint.

我認為這些數字肯定反映了我們在零售領域所做的事情。

I think there's a lot of opportunity just sitting within the New Jersey market.

我認為新澤西市場仍有很多機會。

There's been some tremendous disruption with some of our competitors here and their ability to really reinvest back into this footprint.

我們的一些競爭對手在這裡受到了極大的干擾，他們沒有能力真正重新投資於這一領域。

So we've seen strong growth just in our footprint here.

所以我們在這裡的足跡就看到了強勁的成長。

I think in New Jersey, just the account growth was up about 4% in 2024.

我認為在新澤西州，到 2024 年帳戶成長率就會上升約 4%。

So there's a pretty good tailwind there on the consumer side and not even to mention what we're doing on the small business side.

因此，我們在消費者方面有著相當好的順風，更不用說我們在小型企業方面所做的努力了。

In Florida, probably there's an opportunity to maybe think about what branch expansion looks like I think we just opened a new one in Staten Island as Travis or as I referenced earlier, we have the one in Beverly Hills also.

在佛羅裡達州，可能有機會考慮分行的擴張，我想我們剛剛在斯塔頓島開了一家新分行，就像特拉維斯一樣，或者正如我之前提到的，我們在比佛利山莊也開了一家。

So we are seeing real positive outcomes by reinvesting some of those branches.

因此，透過對一些分支機構進行再投資，我們看到了真正的積極成果。

That said, I think there's a lot of opportunity just in our core footprint here.

話雖如此，我認為我們的核心足跡就有很多機會。

Great.

偉大的。

I appreciate you taking all my questions.

感謝您回答我的所有問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Frank Chiodi, Piper Sandler.

弗蘭克·奇奧迪，派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning.

早安.

Just I was wondering if you could -- your level of confidence in getting to that ROA of 1% by the end of the year.

我只是想知道您是否有信心在年底前實現 1% 的 ROA。

Travis, you mentioned the steeper yield curve, obviously, helping the NII outlook, is that the greatest risk if we get longer-term rates coming down?

特拉維斯，您提到了更陡的殖利率曲線，這顯然有助於 NII 前景，但如果長期利率下降，這是否是最大的風險？

Or do you feel like there's some offsets, maybe delay investment or so forth to still get to that 1% level by the fourth quarter?

或者您覺得存在一些抵消措施，也許推遲投資等，到第四季度仍能達到 1% 的水平？

Frank, I appreciate it.

弗蘭克，我很感激。

Look, I think the NII guidance range that we gave, I mean, the implied curve is candidly the upper end of that range.

看起來，我認為我們給出的 NII 指導範圍，我的意思是隱含曲線坦率地是該範圍的上限。

I mean, we more conservatively believe the lower or midpoint of that to the degree that rates pull back, but that still captures a range that would get you to a 1%-plus ROA at the end of the year.

我的意思是，我們更保守地認為，隨著利率回落，這個數字會處於較低或中點水平，但這仍然可以覆蓋到年底 ROA 超過 1% 的範圍。

And the other consideration there is the provision guidance that we've given is not necessarily linear.

另一個考慮因素是，我們給出的條款指導不一定是線性的。

So we anticipate debt charge-offs and provisions will be higher in the beginning of the year and then taper off as the year goes on, but still getting within the guidance range that we've provided.

因此，我們預期債務註銷和撥備在年初會較高，然後隨著時間的推移逐漸減少，但仍在我們提供的指導範圍內。

So a combination of those things, primarily the reduction in the provision as the year plays out as well as the net interest margin expansion as the year goes on, leads to our expectation that we can be exiting 2025 with an ROA above 1%.

因此，這些因素的綜合作用（主要是隨著時間的推移撥備的減少以及隨著時間的推移淨利差的擴大）使得我們預計到 2025 年我們的 ROA 可以超過 1%。

And I think just to reiterate a little bit what Travis mentioned earlier, right, in the guide that we're giving you on where the NII is going to end up falling we're effectively only using 80% betas versus what we actually received or what we actually recognized just this last quarter.

我想重申 Travis 之前提到的內容，在我們為您提供的有關 NII 最終下降趨勢的指南中，我們實際上只使用了 80% 的測試版，而不是我們實際收到的或上個季度實際確認的測試版。

That said, we were able to be very aggressive in the deposit pricing, and we also saw one of our strongest deposit growth quarters ever at Valley.

儘管如此，我們在存款定價方面仍然非常積極，而且我們也見證了 Valley 有史以來最強勁的存款成長季度之一。

So that's something that makes me feel really, really confident about what we're seeing here and being able to really grow deposits while at the same time, pushing through significant deposit cost reduction is something that we haven't been able to really do here, and we've seen tremendous success.

所以這讓我對我們現在看到的情況感到非常有信心，能夠真正增加存款，同時大幅降低存款成本，這是我們以前無法真正做到的，而且我們已經看到了巨大的成功。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Ira Robbins for closing remarks.

現在我想請艾拉·羅賓斯致閉幕詞。

I just want to thank everyone for taking the time to spend with us this morning and look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

我只想感謝大家今天上午抽出時間與我們在一起，並期待下個季度再次與你們交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And this concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。