Valley National Bancorp (VLY) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Valley's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Presenting on behalf of Valley today are CEO, Ira Robbins; President, Tom Iadanza; and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Hagedorn.

早上好，歡迎來到 Valley 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。今天代表 Valley 出席的有 CEO Ira Robbins；總裁 Tom Iadanza；和首席財務官 Mike Hagedorn。

Before we begin, I would like to make everyone aware that our quarterly earnings release and supporting documents can be found on our company website at valley.com. When discussing our results, we refer to non-GAAP measures, which exclude certain items from reported results. Please refer to today's earnings release for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures.

在我們開始之前，我想讓大家知道我們的季度收益發布和支持文件可以在我們公司的網站 valley.com 上找到。在討論我們的結果時，我們指的是非 GAAP 指標，它從報告的結果中排除了某些項目。請參閱今天的收益發布，了解這些非 GAAP 指標的對賬情況。

Additionally, I would like to highlight Slide 2 of our earnings presentation and remind you that the comments made during this call may contain forward-looking statements related to Valley National Bancorp and the banking industry. Valley encourages all participants to refer to our SEC filings, including those found on Forms 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K for a complete discussion of forward-looking statements.

此外，我想強調我們收益報告的幻燈片 2，並提醒您，在本次電話會議中發表的評論可能包含與 Valley National Bancorp 和銀行業相關的前瞻性陳述。 Valley 鼓勵所有參與者參考我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括 8-K、10-Q 和 10-K 表格中的文件，以完整討論前瞻性陳述。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ira Robbins.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Ira Robbins。

Thank you, Travis. And welcome to those of you on the call. I have a few comments to make this morning, and then we have Tom to provide insight on the quarter's loan and deposit results. Mike will then discuss the financial results in more detail.

謝謝你，特拉維斯。歡迎來電的各位。今天早上我要發表一些評論，然後湯姆將提供有關本季度貸款和存款結果的見解。然後邁克將更詳細地討論財務結果。

In the fourth quarter of 2022, Valley reported net income of $178 million, earnings per share of $0.34 and an annualized ROA of 1.25%. Exclusive of noncore charges, adjusted net income, EPS and ROA were $183 million, $0.35 and 1.29%, respectively. In 2022, we generated net income of $569 million and adjusted net income of $650 million. This represents a significant increase from 2021 as a result of strong organic loan growth, the acquisition of Bank Leumi USA and the benefit of higher interest rates that were realized for the majority of the year.

2022 年第四季度，Valley 公佈的淨收入為 1.78 億美元，每股收益為 0.34 美元，年化 ROA 為 1.25%。不包括非核心費用、調整後的淨收入、EPS 和 ROA 分別為 1.83 億美元、0.35 美元和 1.29%。 2022 年，我們實現了 5.69 億美元的淨收入，調整後的淨收入為 6.5 億美元。由於強勁的有機貸款增長、收購 Bank Leumi USA 以及今年大部分時間實現的更高利率的好處，這比 2021 年有了顯著增長。

I am extremely proud of Valley's consistent financial performance throughout my tenure as CEO. Our profitability metrics and earnings per share have increased steadily across a variety of economic and competitive backdrops.

我為 Valley 在我擔任首席執行官期間一貫的財務業績感到非常自豪。我們的盈利指標和每股收益在各種經濟和競爭背景下穩步增長。

Despite the negative impact of interest rates on equity in 2022 and completing the largest acquisition in our company's history, our focus on tangible book value resulted in year-over-year growth. In fact, our stated tangible book value has increased 36% since 2017. This compares to a 14% increase for our proxy peers over the same period and a 14% increase for Valley between 2012 and 2017.

儘管利率在 2022 年對股權產生了負面影響並完成了我們公司歷史上最大的收購，但我們對有形賬面價值的關注導致了同比增長。事實上，自 2017 年以來，我們聲明的有形賬面價值增長了 36%。相比之下，我們的代理同行同期增長了 14%，而 Valley 在 2012 年至 2017 年間增長了 14%。

Our value creation, as measured by tangible book value plus the dividends we have paid, has totaled 72% since 2017. This is over 1.5x our proxy peer median of 47%. We have generated real franchise value on both an absolute and relative basis.

自 2017 年以來，我們的價值創造（以有形賬面價值加上我們支付的股息衡量）總計為 72%。這是我們的代理同行中值 47% 的 1.5 倍以上。我們已經在絕對和相對基礎上創造了真正的特許經營價值。

Within the context of our sustained financial success, I want to focus this morning on what I see as our key accomplishments over the last 5 years, and how the evolution of our company positions us for the years ahead. From a balance sheet perspective, we have done a tremendous job diversifying our funding base. At the end of 2017, approximately 92% of our deposits were held in retail branches.

在我們持續取得財務成功的背景下，今天上午我想重點談談我認為我們在過去 5 年中取得的主要成就，以及我們公司的發展如何為未來幾年定位。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們在多元化融資基礎方面做得非常出色。截至 2017 年底，我們約 92% 的存款存放在零售分行。

By focusing on commercial relationships and both niche and digital deposit channels, only 70% of our deposits are from the branch network today. From a geographic perspective, 78% of our total deposits were in New Jersey and New York branches in 2017. Today, that number is down to just 48% of total deposits.

通過專注於商業關係以及利基和數字存款渠道，如今我們只有 70% 的存款來自分行網絡。從地理角度來看，2017 年我們總存款的 78% 位於新澤西和紐約分行。如今，這一數字已降至僅佔總存款的 48%。

Finally, despite a challenging few quarters, CDs and borrowings comprise just 23% of funding today versus 31% 5 years ago. Our focus on geographic diversity and a holistic approach to commercial relationships has benefited the asset side of our business as well.

最後，儘管有幾個季度充滿挑戰，但定期存單和借貸目前僅佔資金的 23%，而 5 年前這一比例為 31%。我們對地域多樣性和商業關係整體方法的關注也使我們業務的資產方面受益。

In 2017, 78% of our loan portfolio was in New York and New Jersey. Currently, less than 60% of our loan portfolio is in these states. The ongoing addition of higher-yielding and increasingly adjustable loans has helped to better align our asset and liability [betas]. In our view, this increased balance should help to reduce the net interest margin volatility that we have experienced in prior cycles.

2017 年，我們 78% 的貸款組合位於紐約和新澤西。目前，我們的貸款組合中只有不到 60% 在這些州。不斷增加的高收益和可調節性越來越強的貸款有助於更好地調整我們的資產和負債 [beta]。我們認為，餘額的增加應有助於降低我們在之前週期中經歷的淨息差波動。

Ultimately, our sustained credit excellence provides a stable foundation upon which the aforementioned transformation could occur. Our premier asset quality will continue to be the hallmark of our organization. This credit strength is a result of both stringent underwriting criteria and a focus on holistic relationships with wealthy and sophisticated commercial clients.

最終，我們持續的卓越信用為上述轉型的發生奠定了堅實的基礎。我們一流的資產質量將繼續成為我們組織的標誌。這種信用實力是嚴格的承保標準和注重與富有和成熟的商業客戶的整體關係的結果。

Heading into 2023, we have not identified any underlying trends which would indicate meaningful stress on the loan portfolio. In any event, we believe that our experience during the height of the pandemic indicates the exceptional resilience of our borrower base.

進入 2023 年，我們尚未發現任何表明貸款組合面臨重大壓力的潛在趨勢。無論如何，我們相信我們在大流行最嚴重時期的經歷表明我們的借款人群體具有非凡的彈性。

In aggregate, the balance sheet transformation that we've undergone has been a direct result of our company's strategic evolution and targeted M&A activity. We have focused on business and geographic diversification, premier customer service and establishing a sustainable organic growth engine. Our hiring efforts and tactical initiatives have aligned with these outcomes, and we feel well positioned to navigate the near-term operating environment headwinds that we face today.

總的來說，我們經歷的資產負債表轉型是我們公司戰略演變和有針對性的併購活動的直接結果。我們專注於業務和地域多元化、一流的客戶服務以及建立可持續的有機增長引擎。我們的招聘工作和戰術舉措與這些結果保持一致，我們感覺自己處於有利地位，可以應對我們今天面臨的近期運營環境逆風。

Over the long term, we will continue to focus on diversification and sustainable growth. We believe the progress made over the last 5 years will drive our continued success and ultimately benefit our associates, customers and external stakeholders.

從長遠來看，我們將繼續專注於多元化和可持續增長。我們相信過去 5 年取得的進步將推動我們不斷取得成功，並最終使我們的員工、客戶和外部利益相關者受益。

With that, I will turn the call over to Tom and Mike to discuss the quarter's growth and financial results.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給湯姆和邁克，討論本季度的增長和財務業績。

Thank you, Ira. Slide 6 illustrates the quarter's 15% annualized loan growth. While quarterly loan originations remain below peak levels, net growth continues to benefit from slower payoffs and more sustained activity on the residential and consumer side.

謝謝你，艾拉。幻燈片 6 顯示了本季度 15% 的年化貸款增長率。雖然季度貸款發放仍低於峰值水平，但淨增長繼續受益於較慢的回報以及住宅和消費者方面更持續的活動。

Our commercial loan growth remains well diversified across asset classes and geographies. We continue to experience significant repeat business from our long-standing and sophisticated commercial borrowers. Legacy Leumi customers have also benefited from the utilization of our more robust product set and balance sheet resources.

我們的商業貸款增長在資產類別和地區方面仍然保持多元化。我們繼續從我們的長期和老練的商業借款人那裡獲得大量的重複業務。傳統的 Leumi 客戶也受益於我們更強大的產品集和資產負債表資源的利用。

We anticipate that customer demand will wane somewhat in 2023 largely due to the impact of higher interest rates. Still, we are well positioned from a competitive perspective to capture high single-digit loan growth for the year. Our continued focus on attracting and retaining top talent and preserving service excellence positions us well despite a potentially more challenging backdrop.

我們預計 2023 年客戶需求將有所減弱，這主要是由於較高利率的影響。儘管如此，從競爭的角度來看，我們仍處於有利地位，可以實現今年的高個位數貸款增長。儘管面臨可能更具挑戰性的背景，但我們繼續專注於吸引和留住頂尖人才並保持卓越服務，這使我們處於有利地位。

On Slide 6, you can also see the 99 basis point increase in average new origination yields to 6.2% during the quarter. We remain successful in passing rate hikes through to our customers and anticipate further expansion in origination yields in the near term. As a reminder, approximately 40% of our loan portfolio is fixed and another 20% reprices over a period beyond 30 days. These buckets should provide a repricing tailwind that will continue to support increasing portfolio yields as rate hikes slow.

在幻燈片 6 上，您還可以看到本季度平均新創始收益率增加 99 個基點至 6.2%。我們仍然成功地將加息傳遞給我們的客戶，並預計短期內原始收益率將進一步擴大。提醒一下，我們大約 40% 的貸款組合是固定的，另外 20% 會在超過 30 天的期限內重新定價。這些桶應該提供重新定價的順風，隨著加息放緩，將繼續支持增加投資組合收益率。

Before moving on to the deposit side, I wanted to provide some additional color on the quarter's net charge-offs. Approximately $21 million of the quarter's charge-offs were related to a single C&I loan. Both legacy Valley and Leumi has participated in this larger syndicated credit. Our combined loan exposure has previously been classified as nonaccrual, and the remaining exposure is fully reserved for as of 12/31/2022. This is a discrete credit event, and the vast majority of our portfolio continues to perform extremely well. And as Ira mentioned, our underlying credit trends remain very strong.

在繼續討論存款方面之前，我想為本季度的淨沖銷提供一些額外的顏色。本季度約有 2100 萬美元的沖銷與單筆 C&I 貸款有關。 legacy Valley 和 Leumi 都參與了這一規模更大的銀團信貸。我們的合併貸款風險以前被歸類為非應計貸款，其餘風險完全保留到 2022 年 12 月 31 日。這是一個離散的信用事件，我們的絕大多數投資組合繼續表現非常好。正如 Ira 提到的，我們的潛在信貸趨勢仍然非常強勁。

Turning to Slide 7. You can see that deposits grew at an annualized rate of approximately 21% during the quarter. While the quarter's net growth is largely funded by brokered alternatives, we are pleased with our ability to effectively defend our traditional deposit base in this challenging environment.

轉到幻燈片 7。您可以看到本季度存款的年化增長率約為 21%。雖然本季度的淨增長主要由經紀替代品提供資金，但我們很高興能夠在這個充滿挑戰的環境中有效捍衛我們的傳統存款基礎。

While we saw noninterest deposit pressure across business lines, the largest single driver of the quarter's reduction occurred in our technology deposit area. Despite the volatility in this business, which has been exacerbated by certain environmental challenges, we continue to add customers and accounts and anticipate above-average growth over time. As a reminder, our technology deposits contribute approximately 5% of our total balances.

雖然我們看到了跨業務線的非利息存款壓力，但本季度減少的最大單一驅動因素發生在我們的技術存款領域。儘管某些環境挑戰加劇了該業務的波動性，但我們繼續增加客戶和賬戶，並預計隨著時間的推移會出現高於平均水平的增長。提醒一下，我們的技術存款約占我們總餘額的 5%。

As we indicated last quarter, we are experiencing competition for deposit sources across the franchise. Specifically, on the commercial side, the same wealthy and sophisticated customer base that supports our strong and consistent credit performance has been actively requesting competitive deposit rates. This has incrementally pressured our betas and deposit costs.

正如我們上個季度所指出的那樣，我們正在經歷整個特許經營權存款來源的競爭。具體來說，在商業方面，支持我們強大而一致的信用表現的同樣富有而成熟的客戶群一直在積極要求具有競爭力的存款利率。這增加了我們的貝塔和存款成本的壓力。

Our retail network has been responsive to our CD offerings, and both digital and [canvas] deposits saw solid growth during the quarter. We are keenly aware of the price competition that we face to defend and grow our deposit balances. A variety of channels remain available to us, and we will do our best to take advantage of the most cost-effective alternatives to support our continued loan growth.

我們的零售網絡對我們的 CD 產品做出了響應，數字和 [canvas] 存款在本季度都實現了穩健增長。我們敏銳地意識到我們為捍衛和增加存款餘額而面臨的價格競爭。我們仍然可以使用多種渠道，我們將盡最大努力利用最具成本效益的替代方案來支持我們持續的貸款增長。

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike Hagedorn to provide more insight on the quarter's financials.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給 Mike Hagedorn，以提供有關本季度財務的更多見解。

Thank you, Tom. Slide 8 illustrates Valley's recent quarterly net interest income and margin trends. Net interest income increased approximately $12 million or 3% from the linked quarter. This reflects continued loan growth and expanding loan yields, which were partially offset by more robust interest-bearing deposit growth and funding cost pressures.

謝謝你，湯姆。幻燈片 8 說明了 Valley 最近的季度淨利息收入和利潤率趨勢。淨利息收入較上一季度增加約 1200 萬美元或 3%。這反映了貸款的持續增長和貸款收益率的擴大，但部分被更強勁的生息存款增長和融資成本壓力所抵消。

While our fourth quarter fully tax-equivalent net interest margin declined 3 basis points to 3.57% from the third quarter of 2022, our PPP adjusted margin remains 47 basis points above the fourth quarter of 2021. During the quarter, a 69 basis point expansion in our asset yield was more than offset by a 78 basis point increase in total funding costs. The asset yield increase was driven by both the repricing of our floating rate loans and a significant increase in the yields on newly originated loans. During the quarter, we funded loan growth and our noninterest-bearing deposit runoff primarily with higher-cost time deposits.

雖然我們第四季度的完全稅當量淨息差比 2022 年第三季度下降了 3 個基點至 3.57%，但我們的 PPP 調整後利潤率仍比 2021 年第四季度高 47 個基點。在本季度，擴大了 69 個基點我們的資產收益率被總融資成本增加 78 個基點所抵消。資產收益率的增加是由我們浮動利率貸款的重新定價和新發放貸款的收益率顯著增加所推動的。在本季度，我們主要通過成本較高的定期存款為貸款增長和無息存款流失提供資金。

As you saw on Slide 7, we calculate a cumulative year-to-date deposit beta of approximately 34%. As we noted last quarter, deposit competition has accelerated rapidly, and we have had to offer higher rates to attract funds to support our significant loan growth. While we continue to benefit from asset repricing, this is likely to be more than offset by higher funding costs in 2023.

正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣，我們計算出年初至今累計存款貝塔係數約為 34%。正如我們上個季度所指出的那樣，存款競爭迅速加劇，我們不得不提供更高的利率來吸引資金來支持我們顯著的貸款增長。雖然我們繼續受益於資產重新定價，但這很可能被 2023 年更高的融資成本所抵消。

Moving to Slide 9. We generated just under $53 million of noninterest income for the quarter as compared to $56.2 million in the third quarter. The reduction was primarily the result of lower swap income. This was partially offset by stronger revenues from our trust, wealth and insurance businesses. We anticipate that our 2023 fee income could grow at a mid- to high single-digit pace using the fourth quarter annualized number as a starting point.

轉到幻燈片 9。我們本季度的非利息收入略低於 5300 萬美元，而第三季度為 5620 萬美元。減少的主要原因是掉期收入減少。這部分被我們的信託、財富和保險業務的收入增加所抵消。我們預計，以第四季度年化數字為起點，我們 2023 年的費用收入可能會以中高個位數的速度增長。

On Slide 10, you can see that our noninterest expenses were approximately $266 million for the quarter or approximately $256 million on an adjusted basis. Most expense lines were well controlled during the quarter, and the modest increase from the third quarter levels was partially the result of higher counterparty collateral fees related to certain hedging activities.

在幻燈片 10 上，您可以看到本季度我們的非利息支出約為 2.66 億美元，調整後約為 2.56 億美元。大多數支出項目在本季度都得到了很好的控制，與第三季度相比略有增長，部分原因是與某些對沖活動相關的交易對手抵押費用增加。

Continued revenue growth helped drive our efficiency ratio to 49.3% from 49.8% in the third quarter. We anticipate sustaining a sub-50% efficiency ratio in 2023 and believe there will be opportunities to drive efficiency lower from our current level.

持續的收入增長幫助我們將效率比率從第三季度的 49.8% 提高到 49.3%。我們預計 2023 年的效率比將維持在 50% 以下，並相信會有機會將效率從目前的水平降低。

Turning to Slide 11. You can see our asset quality trends for the last 5 quarters. Tom detailed the single loan relationship that drove the spike in net charge-offs for the quarter. We believe this was an isolated incident and are pleased with our aggregate 5 basis point net charge-offs to average loan rate for 2022.

轉到幻燈片 11。您可以看到我們過去 5 個季度的資產質量趨勢。 Tom 詳細介紹了導致本季度淨沖銷激增的單一貸款關係。我們認為這是一起孤立事件，並對我們對 2022 年平均貸款利率的總計 5 個基點淨沖銷感到滿意。

As a result of continued improvement in our underlying credit metrics and stability in the economic forecast, our allowance for credit losses as a percent of total loans declined to 1.03% at December 31 from 1.10% at September 30. As a percentage of nonaccrual loans, the allowance increased to 170% from 162% at September 30 and 150% 1 year ago.

由於我們基礎信貸指標的持續改善和經濟預測的穩定性，我們的信貸損失準備金佔貸款總額的百分比從 9 月 30 日的 1.10% 降至 12 月 31 日的 1.03%。作為非應計貸款的百分比，津貼從 9 月 30 日的 162% 和一年前的 150% 增加到 170%。

On Slide 12, you can see the tangible book value increased approximately 3.4% for the quarter. This was the result of our strong earnings and a modest improvement in the OCI impact associated with our available-for-sale securities portfolio. Tangible common equity to tangible assets improved slightly as a result of the same factors. Our regulatory capital ratios declined modestly during the quarter as a result of our strong loan growth. We anticipate that growth will moderate in 2023, resulting in higher regulatory capital levels a year from now.

在幻燈片 12 上，您可以看到本季度有形賬面價值增長了約 3.4%。這是我們強勁的收益以及與我們的可供出售證券投資組合相關的 OCI 影響適度改善的結果。由於相同的因素，有形普通股對有形資產的比率略有改善。由於我們強勁的貸款增長，我們的監管資本比率在本季度略有下降。我們預計 2023 年增長將放緩，導致一年後監管資本水平提高。

We lay out additional 2023 guidance items on Slide 13. For simplicity, we based our forecast on 2022 full year results, which only included 3 quarters of impact from Bank Leumi. Based on our current pipeline and expectations for a modest pullback in demand, we anticipate 2023 loan growth of 7% to 9%. This would result in net interest income growth of 16% to 18%. We anticipate approximately 10.5% to 12.5% growth in expenses using 2022 reported less merger charges as a starting point. This would imply a full year efficiency ratio at or below the mid-49% level posted this quarter.

我們在幻燈片 13 上列出了額外的 2023 年指導項目。為簡單起見，我們的預測基於 2022 年全年業績，其中僅包括來自 Bank Leumi 的 3 個季度的影響。根據我們目前的計劃和對需求適度回落的預期，我們預計 2023 年貸款增長 7% 至 9%。這將導致淨利息收入增長 16% 至 18%。我們預計，以 2022 年報告的合併費用減少為起點，費用將增長約 10.5% 至 12.5%。這意味著全年效率比率處於或低於本季度公佈的 49% 的中間水平。

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator to begin Q&A. Thank you.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回接線員開始問答。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Michael Pietro (sic) [Perito] with KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Michael Pietro（原文如此）[Perito] 與 KBW 的對話。

I wanted to start drilling down on the margin a little bit. Appreciate the guide and the outlook, and obviously a strong kind of end to the year. I'm just curious, though, I mean, I imagine you guys are assuming some more beta pressure on the funding side in the first half of the year.

我想開始深入研究邊緣。欣賞指南和展望，顯然是一種強烈的年終。不過，我只是很好奇，我的意思是，我想你們在今年上半年在資金方面承擔了更多的貝塔壓力。

But as we think about the thought process around a relatively stable NIM for 2023 and asset yield improvements being offset by funding improvements, are you guys also factoring in continued outflow on the noninterest-bearing side? Or how are you guys thinking about mix? Because obviously, Ira, your point is well taken about how much the business has structurally changed, but is there still some kind of normalization to be had just from the environment that we're coming out of?

但是當我們考慮圍繞 2023 年相對穩定的 NIM 和資產收益率的改善被資金改善所抵消的思考過程時，你們是否也在考慮無息方面的持續外流？或者你們是如何考慮混音的？因為很明顯，艾拉，你關於業務結構發生了多大變化的觀點得到了很好的理解，但是我們正在走出的環境是否仍然存在某種正常化？

Yes. And I think it's a good question, and I'll turn some of the mechanics over to Mike. But I do want to re-highlight once again the macro change that we have in the funding base today and especially just out of that retail footprint. I know, historically, the Northeast has been high on an absolute basis as well as high on a beta basis. And now have 48% of our deposits just in the New York, New Jersey region versus 78% before is dramatically going to change what the overall beta performance is.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題，我會將一些機制交給 Mike。但我確實想再次強調我們今天在資金基礎上發生的宏觀變化，尤其是在零售足蹟之外。我知道，從歷史上看，東北部的絕對值和貝塔值都很高。現在我們有 48% 的存款只在紐約、新澤西地區，而之前是 78%，這將極大地改變整體 beta 性能。

But Mike, you've got some more details, I believe.

但是邁克，我相信你有更多的細節。

Yes. I think the thing to really keep in mind is we saw $900 million roughly rotate out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing between third and fourth quarter. And our expectation right now as we look into '23 is that, that will continue. And hopefully, it bottoms out into the high 20s type range. The reason that we think that is, we bank a fairly sophisticated wealthy customer base. And obviously, we pass the line where they're going to leave excess deposits in noninterest-bearing.

是的。我認為真正要記住的是，在第三季度和第四季度之間，我們看到 9 億美元大致從無息轉為有息。我們現在對 23 年的期望是，這將繼續下去。希望它能觸底進入 20 多歲類型的高位範圍。我們這麼認為的原因是，我們擁有相當成熟的富裕客戶群。顯然，我們超過了他們將不計息的超額存款的界限。

Also keep in mind that with that $900 million that rotated, we also had about $700 million of "excess" deposits that we put on in the fourth quarter in anticipation of the Fed's -- 2 additional Fed actions increases in the first half of '23. So we're getting out ahead of that a little bit. And obviously, those have a higher beta attached to them.

還要記住，隨著這 9 億美元的輪換，我們在第四季度也有大約 7 億美元的“超額”存款，我們預計美聯儲將在 2023 年上半年增加 2 項額外的美聯儲行動.所以我們要提前一點。顯然，那些有更高的貝塔值。

And I do want to really just add to one of the things that we have done is continue to grow the commercial book as well. If you look at a year-over-year basis, we've seen business checking accounts increase 11%. And obviously, those have a lot of operating accounts associated with them. So there really isn't as much excess deposits in some of those. So while there is pressure, I do believe some of the changes and focuses that we've had in the strategic areas are really going to [ignore] to the benefit throughout 2023.

我確實想補充一點，我們所做的其中一件事就是繼續發展商業書籍。如果你看一下同比，我們看到商業支票賬戶增長了 11%。顯然，那些有很多與之相關的運營賬戶。所以其中一些確實沒有那麼多的超額存款。因此，儘管存在壓力，但我確實相信我們在戰略領域所做的一些改變和重點確實會 [忽略] 整個 2023 年的利益。

Great. At this point, when you guys are kind of guiding towards a stable-ish NIM, you could kind of conservatively assuming that some of the headwinds that occurred in the fourth quarter continue to occur in 2023.

偉大的。在這一點上，當你們在某種程度上引導穩定的 NIM 時，你們可以保守地假設第四季度發生的一些不利因素將在 2023 年繼續發生。

And Mike, I think when you think about -- this is Travis. When you think about our 7% to 9% loan growth guide and when you kind of take the fourth quarter run rate on NII and you figure out where the guide that we're giving you is for 2023, you'll see kind of closer to 4% NII growth. So we're anticipating some amount of margin compression.

邁克，我想當你想到時——這是特拉維斯。當您考慮我們的 7% 至 9% 的貸款增長指南，以及當您對 NII 採取第四季度的運行率並弄清楚我們為您提供的 2023 年指南時，您會看到更接近NII 增長 4%。因此，我們預計會出現一定程度的利潤壓縮。

And don't forget, too, the first quarter, obviously, we'll have additional headwinds, like the day count issue is going to cost us a couple of basis points there as well. So I don't think we're guiding necessarily to a stable margin. I would say that if you factor it all together, there's a little bit of pressure that's baked in here, and it's because of the factors that we've talked about.

也不要忘記，第一季度，顯然，我們還會遇到額外的不利因素，比如天數問題也會讓我們損失幾個基點。所以我認為我們不一定要引導穩定的利潤率。我想說的是，如果將所有因素綜合考慮，這裡會產生一些壓力，這是因為我們已經討論過的因素。

Perfect. Okay. Great. And then secondly, Ira, on the efficiency ratio and -- I guess just kind of a philosophical question, but I mean, do you think sub-50 is kind of the new table stakes? I mean, as you guys try to manage your business from an investment standpoint and an ROI standpoint on -- in terms of like incremental margins of new business customers and stuff. I mean, is this -- I guess the question is, is this kind of just the way we should be thinking about your business kind of base case moving forward kind of irregardless of where rates are? Yes, I guess, I'll just leave it there. I'm curious what your thoughts are.

完美的。好的。偉大的。其次，艾拉，關於效率比——我想這只是一個哲學問題，但我的意思是，你認為低於 50 是一種新的籌碼嗎？我的意思是，當你們試圖從投資的角度和投資回報率的角度管理您的業務時——就新業務客戶和其他東西的增量利潤而言。我的意思是，這是——我想問題是，無論費率如何，我們應該以這種方式考慮你的業務類型的基本案例向前發展嗎？是的，我想，我會把它留在那裡。我很好奇你的想法是什麼。

I mean candidly, we should not be disappointed if we went above 50% on a consistent basis. I believe even our forecast for this year continues to invest in strategic initiates that are really going to continue to drive franchise value for us. I think we focus on expenses probably too much in certain areas. If you go back to when I took over as CEO, we have 3,325 employees and $29 billion of assets in the first quarter thereafter. Today, we're sitting with $57 billion of assets, 3,826 employees. So we've added 501 employees over the 5 years and grown the bank $28 billion. There's tremendous focus here on efficiencies, process and making sure that we're getting the most out of every single dollar that we spend on the expense side.

我的意思是坦率地說，如果我們持續超過 50%，我們不應該失望。我相信即使是我們今年的預測也會繼續投資於真正會繼續為我們推動特許經營價值的戰略舉措。我認為我們在某些領域可能過分關注開支。如果你回到我接任 CEO 的時候，我們在第一季度擁有 3,325 名員工和 290 億美元的資產。今天，我們擁有 570 億美元的資產和 3,826 名員工。因此，我們在 5 年內增加了 501 名員工，使銀行增加了 280 億美元。這裡非常關注效率、流程，並確保我們從支出方面花費的每一分錢中獲得最大收益。

I think -- but to your point, we have to build franchise value. We are investing in our future in certain businesses that we think are going to continue to really grow and so [outsize] performance. So it is a balance for us. But managing the macro number, I think, is something that's really important to everyone here within the organization.

我認為——但就你的觀點而言，我們必須建立特許經營價值。我們正在為我們的未來投資於某些我們認為將繼續真正增長並因此 [outsize] 業績的業務。所以這對我們來說是一種平衡。但我認為，管理宏觀數字對組織內的每個人來說都非常重要。

Helpful. Perfect. And then I'll just sneak one last one in, and then I'll drop back. Just the trust and investment fees were stronger than I was looking for, at least in the quarter. And I was just curious if you could maybe remind us what the fee structures there look like. And depending -- like are they market-dependent? Or are they more fixed? So just any color there would be great just so we have an idea of what to expect once we make some assumptions for next year.

有幫助。完美的。然後我會偷偷最後一個進去，然後我會退回去。只是信託和投資費用比我預期的要高，至少在本季度是這樣。我很好奇你是否可以提醒我們那裡的費用結構是什麼樣的。並且取決於 - 比如它們是否依賴於市場？或者它們更固定？所以只要有任何顏色都會很棒，所以一旦我們對明年做出一些假設，我們就會知道會發生什麼。

Yes. Mike, I think the fourth quarter pickup was partially related to Dudley, which has some seasonally back-loaded revenues. So that flows through that trust investment insurance line for their advisory fees. I do think our forecast for 2023, we assume that there's some continued improvement in that line in total because should the equity and debt markets normalize, I think we would look for some improvement in our market-based revenues. So I think that's reasonable, but we don't anticipate a significant -- obviously, we're guiding to mid- to high single-digit growth on the fee side. So it's not astronomical.

是的。邁克，我認為第四季度的回升部分與達德利有關，達德利有一些季節性的後載收入。因此，通過信託投資保險線流向他們的諮詢費。我確實認為我們對 2023 年的預測，我們假設這條線總體上會有一些持續改善，因為如果股票和債務市場正常化，我認為我們會尋求基於市場的收入有所改善。所以我認為這是合理的，但我們預計不會有顯著的——顯然，我們正在引導收費方面實現中高個位數增長。所以這不是天文數字。

Okay. And the Dudley, is that seasonal revenue something that would -- you would expect to occur kind of on an annual basis towards the end of the year?

好的。而 Dudley，這種季節性收入是否會 - 你希望在年底前每年都會發生這種情況？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Steve Moss with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Steve Moss 和 Raymond James 的對話。

Maybe just following up on Mike's question here, just going a little further into the weeds. Curious, where is loan pricing these days?

也許只是在這裡跟進邁克的問題，只是進一步深入了解雜草。好奇，這些天貸款定價在哪裡？

I think when you -- it's Tom, Steve. When you look at our yield in the fourth quarter, we increased that 100 basis points to 6.2%. On a monthly basis, we were just under 6.5% for the month of December. We continue to push our spreads up to counter the cost of our deposits. It really will differ by asset classes, more so than anything else. And as Ira mentioned earlier, we're 60% adjustable. So we'll continue to benefit by the rise in short-term rates on that 40% of our portfolio tied to SOFR, prime and LIBOR.

我想當你——是湯姆、史蒂夫。當您查看我們第四季度的收益率時，我們將這 100 個基點提高到 6.2%。按月計算，12 月份的增長率略低於 6.5%。我們繼續提高利差以抵消存款成本。它確實會因資產類別而異，比其他任何東西都更重要。正如 Ira 之前提到的，我們有 60% 的可調性。因此，我們將繼續受益於與 SOFR、prime 和 LIBOR 相關的 40% 投資組合的短期利率上升。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the deposit side. You mentioned growth in, I think, tech and cannabis here. Just kind of curious if you can give a little more color on the trends there, maybe size it up. And how much is maybe noninterest-bearing versus interest-bearing?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就在存款方面。我認為，你在這裡提到了科技和大麻的增長。只是有點好奇您是否可以為那裡的趨勢提供更多顏色，也許可以放大一下。無息與有息分別是多少？

Yes. It's a deposit-driven business for us, and we are focusing on the multistate operators. We now do business with 10 of them. We grow accounts in double digits on a quarter-to-quarter basis. We are -- I don't have it exactly, but we're primarily noninterest-bearing on our deposit accounts.

是的。這對我們來說是一項以存款為導向的業務，我們專注於多州運營商。我們現在與其中 10 家有業務往來。我們每個季度都以兩位數的速度增長賬戶。我們是——我不完全知道，但我們的存款賬戶主要是不計息的。

And one thing, Stephen, this is Travis, we lumped cannabis in with a couple of other niche deposit businesses. So for us, there'll be cannabis, HOA, national deposits and digital. And those 4 businesses in aggregate added $900 million in deposits during the quarter, which helped to offset some of the other traditional kind of commercial deposit runoff. And so that goes back to the Ira's conversation about the transformation of the bank. Absent those businesses, which are relatively new to Valley, we'd be looking at a different deposit picture.

還有一件事，斯蒂芬，這是特拉維斯，我們將大麻與其他幾個利基存款業務混為一談。所以對我們來說，會有大麻、HOA、國家存款和數字。這 4 家企業在本季度總共增加了 9 億美元的存款，這有助於抵消其他一些傳統類型的商業存款徑流。這又回到了愛爾蘭共和軍關於銀行轉型的談話。如果沒有這些對 Valley 來說相對較新的業務，我們將會看到不同的存款情況。

Okay. That's helpful. And then last question for me here. Just curious, any color you can give on the construction loan that was moved to nonperforming status-type geography, things of that nature?

好的。這很有幫助。然後在這裡問我最後一個問題。只是好奇，您可以為轉移到不良狀態類型地理區域的建築貸款提供任何顏色，那種性質的東西？

Yes. Sure. It's Tom again, Steve. It's a single loan based in New York City. It's a for-sale construction project, 6 units, 3 are contracted to be sold. We're awaiting the [TCO] to close those sales. Upon the 3 sales, we will be paid in full.

是的。當然。又是湯姆，史蒂夫。這是一項位於紐約市的單一貸款。為待售建設項目，6套，3套簽約待售。我們正在等待 [TCO] 結束這些銷售。銷售 3 次後，我們將全額付款。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Jon Arfstrom。

A question for you on the CD growth during the quarter. Ira, you mentioned it used to be, I think, 31% 5 years ago. Do you guys see any limits to that CD growth? Should we expect more of the same in the next quarter or 2?

關於本季度 CD 增長的問題。 Ira，你提到它曾經是，我認為，5 年前是 31%。你們看到 CD 增長有任何限制嗎？我們是否應該期待下一季度或第二季度出現更多相同情況？

I think you will see slightly higher levels, assuming that we have loan growth that's in excess of what our expectations are in the guidance. And the brokered CD market is very liquid for us, and we'll use it as a tool to fund up the balance sheet and manage our loan-to-deposit ratio. But as Travis commented earlier, what's really important is the growth we're seeing in these other niche sectors, along with the fact that we did do another CD promotion in the fourth quarter that raised just about $1 billion as well. And while those are higher-cost deposits, as I said earlier, trying to link it back to my earlier comment, we expect those deposits will become cheaper, assuming that the Fed's expected rate increases occur in the first half of '23.

我認為你會看到略高的水平，假設我們的貸款增長超過了我們在指導中的預期。經紀 CD 市場對我們來說流動性很強，我們將把它作為一種工具來為資產負債表提供資金並管理我們的貸存比。但正如特拉維斯早些時候評論的那樣，真正重要的是我們在這些其他利基行業看到的增長，以及我們在第四季度確實進行了另一次 CD 促銷，也籌集了大約 10 億美元。雖然這些是成本較高的存款，正如我之前所說，試圖將其與我之前的評論聯繫起來，但我們預計這些存款將變得更便宜，假設美聯儲的預期加息發生在 23 年上半年。

And Jon, I mean, I just can't reiterate enough the different levers that we have today that we never historically had. When we talk about where we used to generate fund income, you all used to have to come out of the branches, came out of the FHLB or came out of the brokered CD market. Those were the 3 choices we had. Today, to even to support the 15% loan growth, we have a litany of additional levers today. And we have the flexibility that if we wanted to go to the retail CD market because we think that's attractive, then that's where a portion of it could come from. We have the ability to extend duration on certain things that we've never had before.

喬恩，我的意思是，我無法充分重申我們今天擁有的歷史上從未有過的不同槓桿。當我們談論我們過去在哪裡產生基金收入時，你們過去都必須從分支機構出來，從 FHLB 出來，或者從經紀 CD 市場出來。這些是我們的 3 個選擇。今天，為了支持 15% 的貸款增長，我們今天有一連串的額外槓桿。而且我們有靈活性，如果我們想進入零售 CD 市場，因為我們認為這很有吸引力，那麼這就是它的一部分可能來自的地方。我們有能力延長我們以前從未有過的某些事情的持續時間。

So the flexibility that we have today is astronomical compared to where we were before. And I do believe over a period of time on a relative basis that that's going to help us manage our funding cost to a much better degree than what we're historically able to. And when you look at the asset side of the balance sheet, which they should be looked at in conjunction in the floating rate assets that we've been able to put on, it really helps dictate the types of funding that we want to do across the entire organization. We don't necessarily look at one side of the balance sheet just in isolation.

因此，與以前相比，我們今天擁有的靈活性是天文數字。而且我確實相信，在一段時間內相對而言，這將幫助我們更好地管理我們的融資成本，這比我們歷史上能夠做到的要好得多。當你查看資產負債表的資產方面時，它們應該與我們已經能夠投入的浮動利率資產一起查看，它確實有助於決定我們想要進行的融資類型整個組織。我們不一定孤立地看待資產負債表的一側。

Yes. Yes, that makes sense. I mean it's a unique period, Ira, right? It's -- we're in a period of maximum deposit pricing pressure right now. And I understand that...

是的。是的，這是有道理的。我的意思是這是一個獨特的時期，艾拉，對吧？這是——我們現在正處於存款定價壓力最大的時期。我明白...

And keep in mind, we had 60 -- I think, as Mike was alluding to, we had a 60-plus basis point runoff early, right, because of the asset sensitivity. So there was an expectation here that we're going to see some increase in the funding cost to come along with that. But like you said, Jon, it's unique, it's interesting right now. But there's massive franchise value that we're able to build by adding 50% loan growth and be able to find the funds to really support that.

請記住，我們有 60 個——我認為，正如邁克所暗示的那樣，由於資產敏感性，我們早期有 60 個以上的基點決流。因此，這裡有人期望我們會看到融資成本隨之增加。但就像你說的，喬恩，它是獨一無二的，現在很有趣。但是，我們能夠通過增加 50% 的貸款增長來建立巨大的特許經營價值，並且能夠找到真正支持它的資金。

Yes. Okay. Just one quick one on this topic, and then I have one other one. But you mentioned the tech vertical, the decline in deposits there. Was that a surprise? And what drove that? Was that simply making a decision on rate? Or was that something else in there? And what was the magnitude of that?

是的。好的。關於這個主題的只是一個快速的，然後我有另一個。但是你提到了技術垂直領域，那裡的存款下降了。那是一個驚喜嗎？是什麼推動了這一點？那是簡單地決定費率嗎？還是裡面有別的東西？那有多大？

I won't give you the magnitude of it, but I will tell you what caused it. What caused it was one customer in their portfolio that went IPO. And as a result of that, the bank that took the IPO received the deposits that we previously had. And that should come as no surprise. That is the life cycle of what happens inside of that tech business. But overall, our tech balances from the time we started to now are basically flat when you've seen most everybody else in that space have declines.

我不會告訴你它的嚴重程度，但我會告訴你是什麼原因造成的。導致它的原因是他們投資組合中的一位客戶進行了首次公開募股。因此，進行 IPO 的銀行收到了我們之前的存款。這應該不足為奇。這就是該技術企業內部發生的事情的生命週期。但總的來說，當你看到該領域的大多數其他人都在下降時，我們的技術平衡從我們開始到現在基本上持平。

Which I think is a good thing. I mean, if you think about what you've seen from an industry perspective, you've seen tech deposits come down because of cash burn and needs at the overall individual portfolio companies. This was a great event. If you think about it from a client perspective, that there was your IPO and really still even in this market generate some sizable returns from an investor base. And I think it demonstrates the differentiation of what our tech business looks like maybe versus what some of the others do from an industry perspective.

我認為這是一件好事。我的意思是，如果你從行業的角度考慮你所看到的情況，你會看到技術存款因整體投資組合公司的現金消耗和需求而下降。這是一個偉大的事件。如果你從客戶的角度考慮它，那麼你的首次公開募股實際上仍然在這個市場上，從投資者群中產生了一些可觀的回報。而且我認為它展示了我們的技術業務看起來可能與其他一些從行業角度所做的事情的差異。

Yes. Okay. Good. And then maybe this is for you, Mike, I'm not sure. But buried in the release, there's a comment about talking about reserves, a lower quantitative factor in the reserves. And I'm just curious what was behind that. Was that related to the charge-off? Or was that something else that drove that? And then just if you could give us some thoughts on the provision as well, that would be helpful.

是的。好的。好的。然後也許這是給你的，邁克，我不確定。但隱藏在發布中的是關於談論儲備的評論，這是儲備中較低的量化因素。我只是好奇那背後是什麼。這與沖銷有關嗎？或者是其他因素推動了它？然後，如果您也可以就該條款給我們一些想法，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. You're really in the weeds on that one. But the quantitative -- for the most part, the quantitative adjustment was not an adjustment based upon economic assumptions because we kept those the same. So that's probably what you really want to get at. It's more a function around nuances in various loan pools that we use, kind of management overlays is the way to think about it.

是的。你真的在那個雜草中。但是定量 - 在大多數情況下，定量調整不是基於經濟假設的調整，因為我們保持不變。所以這可能是您真正想要的。它更多的是圍繞我們使用的各種貸款池中的細微差別的功能，一種管理疊加是考慮它的方式。

And then if that's good, on the provision question, all else being equal, we definitely believe that we will be able to -- all else being equal, we'll be able to maintain our current allowance coverage ratio of 1.03%. But it's also important to note that from the time that we did CECL to where we're at now, we're actually up 14 basis points. So we started CECL at 89 basis points. We're at 103 today. And by our math, the peer group is roughly down 20 basis points.

然後，如果這很好，在準備金問題上，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們絕對相信我們能夠——在其他條件相同的情況下，我們將能夠維持目前 1.03% 的準備金覆蓋率。但同樣重要的是要注意，從我們做 CECL 到現在的位置，我們實際上上漲了 14 個基點。所以我們以 89 個基點開始 CECL。我們今天在 103。根據我們的計算，同行組大約下降了 20 個基點。

So while you've seen massive releases and reductions, we've been the exact opposite. And clearly, we could have done that if we chose to in the fourth quarter, and we chose not to because I think it's prudent going into this economic environment to try to preserve our allowance or our provision as best we can.

因此，當您看到大量發布和減少時，我們卻恰恰相反。很明顯，如果我們選擇在第四季度這樣做，我們本可以這樣做，而我們選擇不這樣做，因為我認為進入這種經濟環境以盡可能地保留我們的津貼或我們的準備金是明智的。

And maybe just following up on that, I mean just to put it in simplest terms, we didn't believe the reserve when many of our peers did. So it's not unlikely that we're not going to have to provide as much if the economy does go into recession compared to where the peers were.

也許只是跟進，我的意思是用最簡單的術語來說，我們不相信儲備金，而我們的許多同行都相信。因此，與同行相比，如果經濟確實陷入衰退，我們不必提供那麼多的資金，這並非不可能。

But just it doesn't feel like you guys are -- you're being cautious, but you're not necessarily seeing the erosion that maybe we're all fearing is coming later?

但只是感覺你們不是——你們很謹慎，但你們不一定會看到我們都擔心的侵蝕會在以後發生嗎？

I think we were being cautious for the last 5 or 6 -- 6 quarters, where our economic conditions still had a much more significant weighting towards a recession than what everybody else did. I find it unfathomable that people would drain their reserve 20 basis points below CECL for the last -- coming out of a pandemic and put it down to their P&L. It makes no sense to me. So now where I think that we've been more conservative, it's absolutely more likely that we're not going to have to build to the level that everybody else is. They should have never dropped down below CECL, from my individual perspective.

我認為我們在過去 5 或 6 - 6 個季度都持謹慎態度，我們的經濟狀況對衰退的影響仍然比其他所有人都大得多。我覺得不可思議的是，人們最後一次將他們的儲備金耗盡到低於 CECL 20 個基點——從大流行中走出來並將其計入他們的損益表。對我來說完全是無稽之談。所以現在我認為我們已經更加保守，我們絕對更有可能不必建立到其他人的水平。從我個人的角度來看，他們應該永遠不會低於 CECL。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I wanted to start -- so first, following up on the NII guide, the up 16% to 18% in 2023. Within that guidance, what is the deposit beta assumption by the end of 2023?

我想開始——所以首先，跟進 NII 指南，即 2023 年增長 16% 至 18%。在該指南內，到 2023 年底的存款貝塔假設是多少？

So our through-the-cycle all the way through the end of 2023 is a cumulative deposit beta of 50%.

因此，我們一直到 2023 年底的整個週期是 50% 的累積存款貝塔。

50%. Perfect. And does that -- do you assume rate cuts in there, by the way?

50%。完美的。順便說一下，你是否假設在那裡降息？

Hold on a second.

稍等一下。

Sorry, I just want to clarify, like, so when you look in just for a simplistic terms, because Mike said it absolutely right, but for simplistic terms, like, we wanted to give you the metric that would be comparable to the way we present the deposit beta in our investor deck. So if you look at that and you roll that forward to the fourth quarter of '23 based on our rate assumptions, that cumulative deposit beta would be 50%.

抱歉，我只是想澄清一下，所以當你只看一個簡單的術語時，因為 Mike 說的完全正確，但是對於簡單的術語，比如，我們想給你一個與我們的方式相當的指標在我們的投資者平台上展示存款貝塔。因此，如果您查看它並根據我們的利率假設將其向前滾動到 23 年第四季度，則累積存款貝塔值為 50%。

Yes. Got it. But do you assume rate cuts in that scenario to get there? What's the underlying rate assumption there?

是的。知道了。但是你認為在那種情況下降息會實現嗎？那裡的基本利率假設是什麼？

There is one rate, but it's very late in fourth quarter, so I don't think it will be very impactful. And that's based off of -- go ahead.

有一個利率，但在第四季度已經很晚了，所以我認為它不會有太大影響。這是基於——繼續。

No, no, no. Go ahead.

不不不。前進。

Yes. It's just based off of the current expectation for Fed action. So it's not ours. It's a market-based assumption.

是的。它只是基於當前對美聯儲行動的預期。所以這不是我們的。這是一個基於市場的假設。

Got it. Okay. And then in terms of the funding strategy, in terms of funding the loan growth in 2023, I'm hearing somewhat mixed messages, right? You have these lower-cost niches, which helped this quarter. But you're relying more on brokered CDs and other CDs. How do you see the mix evolving through 2023? And is it going to skew materially towards these higher costs? Or do you think you could keep about the same mix, but because of the growth you get out of the lower-cost verticals?

知道了。好的。然後就融資策略而言，在為 2023 年的貸款增長提供資金方面，我聽到的信息有些複雜，對吧？你有這些低成本的利基市場，這在本季度有所幫助。但是您更多地依賴代理 CD 和其他 CD。您如何看待 2023 年的組合演變？它是否會嚴重偏向這些更高的成本？還是您認為您可以保持大致相同的組合，但由於增長而退出成本較低的垂直行業？

So in our comments, we made a comment around noninterest-bearing rotation that could possibly reduce that number as a percent of total deposits down to something in the high 20s. So I think the answer to your question is yes. We expect a further rotation out of noninterest-bearing. I think that we expect a continued growth in those niches based upon different aspects that happen with interest rates throughout the year that will help fuel the loan growth that we expect and fund that loan growth. But to the extent that those are shortfalls and we don't have enough funding, I think brokered is probably the first place that we'll go. And we've been doing that. So I think it's just a continuation of demonstrating what we've been doing.

因此，在我們的評論中，我們就無息輪換發表了評論，這可能會將這一數字佔總存款的百分比降至 20 多歲左右。所以我認為你的問題的答案是肯定的。我們預計將進一步退出無息債券。我認為，根據全年利率發生的不同方面，我們預計這些利基市場將持續增長，這將有助於推動我們預期的貸款增長並為貸款增長提供資金。但就這些不足和我們沒有足夠的資金而言，我認為經紀可能是我們首先要去的地方。我們一直在這樣做。所以我認為這只是展示我們一直在做的事情的延續。

Okay. So if we put this together and think about the NIM being under pressure, at this point from the 4Q NIM, do you think it's sort of down fairly consistently quarter-over-quarter through the year? Is it more pronounced in the first half then you get to some level of stability in the second half?

好的。因此，如果我們將這些放在一起並考慮 NIM 承受壓力，此時從 4Q NIM 來看，你認為它在今年的季度環比下降相當一致嗎？是不是在上半場更明顯，然後在下半場達到一定程度的穩定性？

Yes. So I think the pressure right now -- nobody has a crystal ball. This is really hard to try to figure this out. I think the pressure will be more pronounced. There may be some lag, but I think it will be more pronounced in the first half of the year. And then you'll see a plateauing, hopefully, if in fact, the future rate curve is actually realized. And then you'll see a plateauing and then maybe later -- as we said earlier, later in the fourth quarter, you get a slight reduction that won't be meaningful because of the timing of that cut.

是的。所以我認為現在的壓力——沒有人有水晶球。這真的很難弄清楚。我認為壓力會更加明顯。可能會有一些滯後，但我認為在今年上半年會更加明顯。然後你會看到一個平台期，希望，如果事實上，未來的利率曲線實際上已經實現了。然後你會看到一個平穩期，然後可能會更晚——正如我們之前所說，在第四季度晚些時候，你會看到一個小幅減少，由於削減的時間，這不會有意義。

You recognize how uncertain it is, that's why we're asking so many questions. Just...

你知道它有多麼不確定，這就是我們問這麼多問題的原因。只是...

Yes. As you think, Steve -- but just keep in mind, if you're looking at it on a relative basis, right, I think the day count is really going to impact where we are from 4Q going into 1Q. I think our comments are acknowledging that when you think about the pressure we're going to see just in the first quarter. So not all the pressure is really from a funding base, but just really that day count piece as well.

是的。正如你所想的那樣，史蒂夫 - 但請記住，如果你在相對的基礎上看它，對，我認為天數真的會影響我們從第四季度到第一季度的位置。我認為我們的評論承認，當您考慮我們將在第一季度看到的壓力時。因此，並非所有壓力都來自資金基礎，但那一天確實也很重要。

Awesome. Got it. And then just one separate question on credit. There's obviously a lot of market concern on commercial real estate given the rise in cap rates. And I'm just curious, looking at the detail that you could provide on Slide 15 of the deck, one, do you share the market's concern over commercial real estate more broad? And maybe could you drill down if you are concerned? Is it a particular geography or product? I'd love to hear your commentary on that.

驚人的。知道了。然後只有一個單獨的信用問題。鑑於資本化率的上升，顯然市場對商業房地產有很多擔憂。我很好奇，看看你可以在幻燈片 15 上提供的細節，第一，你是否更廣泛地分享市場對商業房地產的擔憂？如果您擔心的話，也許您可以深入了解嗎？它是特定的地理位置或產品嗎？我很想听聽你對此的評論。

Yes. Steven, it's Tom. We certainly share the concern of segments of the markets in real estate. We still continue to see robust growth of people moving into the southern markets, especially Florida. A lot of our real estate growth is coming down in that Florida market to support that migration of people down there. As you well know, we are a very diverse granular book of business. We don't have a sizable concentration in any segment. Looking at our real estate portfolio, our average -- weighted average loan-to-value is 62%. Our debt service coverage is 1 75. So we do look at this very closely.

是的。史蒂文，是湯姆。我們當然也對房地產市場的各個部分感到擔憂。我們仍然繼續看到越來越多的人湧入南部市場，尤其是佛羅里達州。我們在佛羅里達市場的許多房地產增長都在下降，以支持那裡的人口遷移。如您所知，我們是一本非常多樣化的精細業務手冊。我們在任何細分市場都沒有相當大的集中度。看看我們的房地產投資組合，我們的平均加權平均貸款價值比為 62%。我們的償債覆蓋率為 1:75。因此我們確實非常仔細地研究了這一點。

Our cap rates, we've always stressed at higher cap rates than our competitors. Our average cap rate is around 6.42%, but you'll go through different categories and asset classes. And as an example, when multifamily cap rates were being -- were in the 3%, 4% range, we were stressing at 5.5%. That allows us to obtain what we will consider lower leverage growth in our markets and keeps down the weighted average LTV and debt service coverage. And we underwrite to cash flow. We don't underwrite to collateral value.

我們的上限率，我們一直強調比我們的競爭對手更高的上限率。我們的平均資本化率約為 6.42%，但您會經歷不同的類別和資產類別。例如，當多戶家庭資本化率在 3%、4% 範圍內時，我們強調為 5.5%。這使我們能夠在我們的市場中獲得我們認為較低的槓桿增長，並降低加權平均 LTV 和償債覆蓋率。我們承保現金流。我們不承保抵押品價值。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Manan Gosalia 與摩根士丹利的對話。

Had a question on CDs. You noted that customers have been responsive to your CD offerings. Can you expand on what terms you're putting on? I know you were [selling] them out in the past. So has there been any change in the duration mix given that we're closer to the Fed holding rate study or potentially cutting? And if you could also help us with how much of the CD portfolio will likely -- is likely to reprice in the next couple of quarters?

有一個關於 CD 的問題。您注意到客戶對您提供的 CD 很感興趣。你能詳細說明你提出的條件嗎？我知道你過去[賣]過它們。那麼，鑑於我們更接近美聯儲持有利率研究或可能降息，久期組合是否有任何變化？如果您也可以幫助我們了解 CD 投資組合中有多少可能 - 可能會在未來幾個季度重新定價？

Yes. This is Mike. So our retail CD promotions that basically started in the middle part of '22 and continued into the fourth quarter have all been around 12- or 18-month duration. So we're not going out long on the curve because obviously, related to the answers we gave to earlier questions around our expectation for rates is that we do expect rates to come down in the very end of '23 and obviously spill over into '24.

是的。這是邁克。因此，我們基本上從 22 世紀中期開始並持續到第四季度的零售 CD 促銷活動的持續時間都在 12 或 18 個月左右。所以我們不會在曲線上做多，因為很明顯，與我們之前對利率預期問題給出的答案相關的是，我們確實預計利率會在 23 年底下降，並且顯然會溢出到 ' 24.

We're also trying to build a fairly flat maturity schedule so that we don't have any 1 quarter where you have a lot coming due. So generally 12 to 18 months. And we've been very fortuitous on those offerings so that, while at the time they might have been a little bit on the high side -- the high beta side, when you look back now where we are with rates after the 425 basis points of Fed increases, you now look at those as being fairly good funding for us, actually fairly cheap in some cases.

我們還試圖建立一個相當平坦的到期時間表，這樣我們就沒有任何一個季度你有很多到期。所以一般是12到18個月。我們在這些產品上非常幸運，所以雖然當時它們可能有點偏高 - 高貝塔方面，當你現在回顧我們在 425 個基點之後的利率時美聯儲加息，你現在認為這些對我們來說是相當好的資金，在某些情況下實際上相當便宜。

Now the one we did in the fourth quarter was obviously on the more expensive side of that. And that's public. So I can definitely tell you where that was at. That was at 4.5%, and it raised just under $1 billion.

現在我們在第四季度所做的顯然是更昂貴的一面。這是公開的。所以我可以肯定地告訴你它在哪裡。那是 4.5%，它籌集了不到 10 億美元。

Got it. Very helpful. And then apologies if I missed this, but I think last quarter, it sounded like you were tightening lending standards a little bit. Can you talk about how you -- what you're doing this quarter? And how you feel about (inaudible) going in?

知道了。很有幫助。如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但我認為上個季度，聽起來你有點收緊了貸款標準。你能談談你如何 - 你在這個季度做了什麼？你對（聽不清）進去感覺如何？

Yes. Yes. I'm sorry. We consistently look at our lending standards and our criteria. And we again tighten those standards early on in the pandemic. And to remind everyone, 70% of our business is to our existing customer base that have been through the ups and downs in the economic cycles. So we manage our the -- we never compromise standards to grow. We maintain our standards. And as we talked about before, we typically use higher cap rates to evaluate our loan-to-values.

是的。是的。對不起。我們始終關注我們的貸款標準和標準。我們在大流行初期再次收緊了這些標準。提醒大家，我們 70% 的業務是針對我們現有的客戶群，這些客戶群已經經歷了經濟周期的起伏。因此，我們管理我們的 - 我們從不妥協標準以實現增長。我們保持我們的標準。正如我們之前談到的，我們通常使用更高的上限利率來評估我們的貸款價值比。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Matthew Breese 和 Stephens 的台詞。

A couple of quick ones. First, what was the accretable yield for the quarter? And what's the outlook for accretable yield in '23?

幾個快速的。首先，本季度可增加的收益率是多少？ 23 年可增長收益的前景如何？

Yes. So Matt, we said the third quarter was $8.5 million on the loan side. That ticked up about $3 million this quarter. And we anticipate -- I think we said that $8 million to $10 million is a good run rate on a quarterly basis, and that remains kind of our guidance.

是的。所以馬特，我們說第三季度貸款方面為 850 萬美元。這在本季度增加了約 300 萬美元。我們預計 - 我認為我們說過 800 萬到 1000 萬美元是一個很好的季度運行率，這仍然是我們的指導。

Okay. And then, what is -- just give us some outlook for the securities portfolio in 2023 and whether or not you see much of any growth. Or should it match kind of overall balance sheet composition stay the same?

好的。然後，什麼是 - 給我們一些關於 2023 年證券投資組合的展望，以及你是否看到任何增長。或者它應該與整體資產負債表的構成保持一致嗎？

Yes. So as a reminder, it represents a little less than 10% of our earning assets. So it's not a material driver of income. Nevertheless, that portfolio is very high quality. And remember, the majority of that is held and held -- or held for maturity. So 75-ish percent is out there, 25% is only held in the AFS portfolio.

是的。因此提醒一下，它只占我們盈利資產的不到 10%。所以它不是收入的物質驅動因素。儘管如此，該投資組合的質量非常高。請記住，其中大部分是持有並持有——或持有至到期。所以 75-ish% 在那裡，25% 只在 AFS 投資組合中持有。

I don't really expect a lot of changes. I guess the biggest change you've seen probably this is an industry change has been that any kind of payouts have ground to a halt. And so you have very little coming due that way. What we will add is in the highest-quality ranges and probably in the lowest risk-weighted asset ranges.

我真的不希望有太多變化。我想你所看到的最大變化可能是行業變化，任何類型的支出都已停止。所以你幾乎沒有什麼應得的。我們將添加的是在最高質量範圍內，並且可能在最低風險加權資產範圍內。

And we'll keep pace, obviously. We have -- as a reminder, we have a lot of public fund money in this bank as well, and government banking as a niche for us is an important niche. So we do have to have collateral for that business. So we will continue to maintain at a minimum what we have.

顯然，我們會跟上步伐。我們 - 提醒一下，我們在這家銀行也有很多公共基金資金，政府銀行業務對我們來說是一個重要的利基市場。因此，我們確實必須為該業務提供抵押品。因此，我們將繼續保持最低限度的現有水平。

Got it. Okay. And then, Ira, just would love your thoughts in '23 around M&A. Previously, the message was, look, we got a ton of stuff to do organically. There's plenty of opportunity on that front. Felt like M&A would have to be incredibly spectacular for you to do it, but my read was probably not. Just wanted some updated thoughts there.

知道了。好的。然後，艾拉，我會喜歡你在 23 年圍繞併購的想法。以前，信息是，看，我們有很多事情要做有機地。在這方面有很多機會。感覺併購必須非常壯觀才能讓你去做，但我的閱讀可能不是。只是想要一些更新的想法。

I would probably say you could copy and paste back into the comments for this quarter as well. I think we're very fortunate that we are likely an acquirer of choice, a partner of choice for many people that are out there today, which is wonderful, I think, based on the experience and successes that we've had. Maximizing and focusing on tangible book value is something that I've always talked about from day 1 when I became CEO, and that really continues.

我可能會說您也可以復制並粘貼回本季度的評論中。我認為我們非常幸運，我們很可能成為首選收購方，成為當今許多人的首選合作夥伴，我認為，根據我們的經驗和成功經驗，這很棒。從我成為 CEO 的第一天起，我就一直在談論最大化和關注有形賬面價值的事情，而且這確實在繼續。

And today, when you look at the economic environment, I think it's very difficult to do an M&A transaction that isn't necessarily just a resource strain, but really drain the tangible book value as well, and that's not something that I'm comfortable with doing. Outside of that, I do believe that we have such tremendous opportunities on an organic basis that we should continue to focus on those resources. We still need to continue to convert and get some of the synergies associated with the Bank Leumi deal, and there's tremendous opportunities with that. So like I said, probably copy and paste, Matt.

今天，當你審視經濟環境時，我認為很難進行不一定只是資源緊張，但也會真正耗盡有形賬面價值的併購交易，這讓我感到不舒服與做。除此之外，我確實相信我們在有機的基礎上擁有如此巨大的機會，我們應該繼續關注這些資源。我們仍然需要繼續轉換並獲得與 Bank Leumi 交易相關的一些協同效應，並且存在巨大的機會。所以就像我說的，可能是複制粘貼，馬特。

Understood. Lastly, just thank you for adding the expense guide for 2023. I appreciate that addition to guidance. That's all I had.

明白了。最後，非常感謝您添加了 2023 年的費用指南。我很欣賞對指南的補充。這就是我的全部。

Anything for you.

什麼都給你。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Frank Schiraldi with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Frank Schiraldi 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。

Just on the niche businesses. I think, Tom, you talked about sort of the way you approach that, you lump in the cannabis, the HOA, the national deposits. And you mentioned a growth rate in the quarter. Just wondering, as we think about those businesses maybe ramping up, I'd assume that we could see greater contribution on a quarterly basis going forward. And then just also curious, is that largely low- to no-cost deposits within that umbrella?

只是在利基業務上。我想，湯姆，你談到了你處理這個問題的方式，你把大麻、HOA 和國家存款混為一談。你提到了本季度的增長率。只是想知道，當我們考慮這些業務可能會增加時，我假設我們可以看到未來每個季度的貢獻更大。然後也很好奇，該保護傘內的大部分是低成本甚至免費存款嗎？

Yes. When you look at the individual components, certainly, we've been ramping up the HOA, and that's largely noninterest-bearing deposits. We talked about the national deposits business. That's primarily an interest-bearing program and process there. The tech will have a large portion of noninterest-bearing, but we'll have interest-bearing mix in there also. And the plan on tech is really to broaden the users and have reliance in addition to domestic VCs, it will go along with the Israeli VCs that we're doing business with today. There are other -- cannabis again will be multistate operators, primarily a noninterest-bearing program. So yes, the plan is to ramp up our specialty or niche businesses, focusing on the deposit side of it.

是的。當您查看各個組件時，當然，我們一直在提高 HOA，這主要是無息存款。我們談到了國家存款業務。這主要是一個有興趣的計劃和流程。該技術將有很大一部分不計息，但我們也會在那裡混合計息。技術計劃實際上是為了擴大用戶並依賴國內風險投資公司，它將與我們今天開展業務的以色列風險投資公司一起進行。還有其他——大麻將再次成為多州運營商，主要是一個無息計劃。所以是的，我們的計劃是加強我們的專業或利基業務，重點放在存款方面。

And then on the technology deposits, you mentioned there's been some volatility there. But overall, I guess it's sort of flattish with where you acquired the business in terms of balances, it sounds like in turn. And so can you give any -- put any parameters around how volatile it has been? I think you said 5% deposits right now and where that's gotten to over the last couple of quarters? And do you see it just continuing to be volatile here in the short term?

然後在技術存款方面，你提到那裡存在一些波動。但總的來說，我想這與你在餘額方面獲得業務的地方有點持平，這聽起來反過來。那麼你能給出任何 - 圍繞它的波動程度設置任何參數嗎？我想你現在說的是 5% 的存款，在過去的幾個季度裡，存款到了哪裡？你是否認為它在短期內會繼續波動？

That's a great question. Other than the IPO event, the very discrete event that we talked about, it's not actually been that volatile for us. We know from talking and listening to industry folks that in other portfolios, it can be incredibly volatile, but ours has not been. Now granted, we've only had 3/4 of a year of experience with it. So you got to take that for what it's worth.

這是一個很好的問題。除了 IPO 事件，我們談到的非常離散的事件，它實際上對我們來說並沒有那麼不穩定。通過與業內人士交談和聆聽，我們知道在其他投資組合中，它的波動性可能非常大，但我們的投資組合卻沒有。現在承認，我們只有 3/4 年的經驗。所以你必須把它當作它的價值。

Okay. And do you lump in there -- is that like a Bank Leumi umbrella? I mean, do you lump the private banking that you got from that acquisition in with those technology deposits? Or how has that growth rate been for you guys?

好的。你有沒有想過——這就像 Bank Leumi 的雨傘嗎？我的意思是，您是否將通過收購獲得的私人銀行業務與這些技術存款混為一談？或者你們的增長率如何？

No. The private banking, both international and domestic, is not included in technology.

不是。國際和國內的私人銀行業務不包括在技術中。

Okay. And have you seen a contraction in that business? Or do you have any -- the size -- the relative size of that business at this point?

好的。您是否看到該業務出現收縮？或者你有任何 - 規模 - 此時該業務的相對規模？

Yes. So I think we've said this before, the international business is, from a deposit perspective, is larger than the domestic business. And the domestic business is going to grow. This is one of the synergies that we identified as part of the Leumi acquisition. We'll grow because of the private banking business that we have on our side, the legacy side of the business, I should say.

是的。所以我想我們之前已經說過，從存款的角度來看，國際業務大於國內業務。國內業務將會增長。這是我們確定為 Leumi 收購的一部分的協同效應之一。我們將因為我們擁有的私人銀行業務而增長，我應該說，業務的遺留方面。

The international private banking business has had some reduction in deposits. The good news is, remember, that's both a deposit and an AUM business. And for the most part, their value add has been structured notes. And obviously, the market has not been conducive to that. So we've been able to retain those clients by moving a vast majority of them into treasury securities. And then in a different interest rate environment, I would expect some of those as they mature to come back on balance sheet.

國際私人銀行業務存款有所減少。好消息是，請記住，這既是存款又是 AUM 業務。在大多數情況下，它們的增值是結構化票據。顯然，市場對此不利。因此，我們已經能夠通過將絕大多數客戶轉移到國庫券中來留住這些客戶。然後在不同的利率環境下，我希望其中一些成熟後會回到資產負債表上。

And just one thing to add. In the last 6 months, we've had over $250 million of referrals from the legacy Valley customers into the domestic private bank for assets to manage. And it's a constant flow of consumer loan business that comes out of that private bank portfolio into Valley.

還有一件事要補充。在過去的 6 個月裡，我們已經從傳統的 Valley 客戶那裡獲得了超過 2.5 億美元的轉介到國內私人銀行進行資產管理。私人銀行投資組合中的消費貸款業務源源不斷地流入矽谷。

Okay. And then just lastly, sorry if I missed it, but did you give any more color on the participation? I thought I heard you mention that you weren't to lead, and I think you mentioned Leumi in there as well. But just wanted to make sure I heard right with the partial charge-off.

好的。最後，抱歉，如果我錯過了，但是您是否對參與有更多的色彩？我想我聽到你提到你不會領導，我想你在那裡也提到了 Leumi。但只是想確保我聽到部分沖銷是正確的。

Yes, certainly. So this is a customer that began banking with us in 2006, so almost 17 years. We began with a $7.5 million share and a total $25 million credit facility or 30%. Company performed well over the years. The credit facility grew to $160 million since that 2006 inception. We always manage our exposures, and we increased our exposure from 7.5% to 19%, but reduced our overall from 30% to 12%. The company sells cardboard boxes for shipping produce. Their customers' customer had a concentration to Russian entities. The embargo has put a very big strain on your customers' ability to pay them. We saw that early on, took early action. We put this on nonaccrual early in 2022. And we reserved 100% of the loan during 2022.

是的，當然了。所以這是一位客戶，他於 2006 年開始使用我們的銀行業務，差不多 17 年了。我們以 750 萬美元的股份和總計 2500 萬美元的信貸額度或 30% 開始。公司多年來業績良好。自 2006 年成立以來，信貸額度增至 1.6 億美元。我們始終管理我們的風險敞口，我們將風險敞口從 7.5% 增加到 19%，但將我們的總體風險敞口從 30% 降低到 12%。該公司銷售用於運輸農產品的紙板箱。他們客戶的客戶專注於俄羅斯實體。禁運對您的客戶的支付能力造成了很大的壓力。我們很早就看到了這一點，並採取了早期行動。我們在 2022 年初將其置於非應計項目中。我們在 2022 年期間保留了 100% 的貸款。

This represents about a 50% charge-off of our outstanding loans. Isolated, we do constant reviews of all of our receivable-backed loans and see if there's any stretching of payments on those. And as Ira mentioned earlier, our credit metrics remain strong.

這代表我們未償還貸款的約 50% 的沖銷。孤立地，我們不斷審查我們所有的應收款支持貸款，看看是否有任何延期付款。正如 Ira 之前提到的，我們的信用指標依然強勁。

It's probably important to note that Leumi had a piece of this as well. So the combined number is a little different because they had a piece.

可能很重要的一點是，Leumi 也參與其中。所以合併後的數字有點不同，因為他們有一塊。

Okay. So I'm sorry, Leumi, the American Bank, had a piece? And so you're saying it's larger, your total...

好的。所以對不起，美國銀行 Leumi 有一塊？所以你說它更大，你的總數......

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. I was referring to the management of the Valley total over those 16, 17 years. When we acquired Leumi, they were also a participant in the bank group. The charge-offs and the reserve represents both bank shares.

是的。我指的是這 16、17 年來矽谷的總體管理。我們收購Leumi的時候，他們也是銀行集團的參與者。註銷和準備金代表銀行股份。

And I'm showing no further questions. And I would like to turn the conference back over to CEO, Ira Robbins, for any further remarks.

我沒有再提出任何問題。我想將會議轉回給首席執行官艾拉羅賓斯，聽取進一步的評論。

Well, I want to thank everyone for taking the time and the interest in Valley today, and we look forward to showing you our performance for 2023.

好吧，我要感謝大家今天抽出時間和對 Valley 的興趣，我們期待向您展示我們 2023 年的表現。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。