Veeco Instruments Inc (VECO) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's Veeco Instruments Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Call.

As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

And at this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. Sam Maheshwari.

Please go ahead.

Thank you, and welcome to our Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Financial Results Conference call.

I am Maheshwari, and presenting with me on the call today is John Peeler, our CEO.

In addition, I'm pleased to introduce our new Head of Investor Relations, Anthony Bencivenga.

Anthony comes from our finance team and has been at Veeco for 7 years.

John and I are excited to have Anthony on board in this new capacity.

I also want to thank Suzanne Schmidt for providing help during this interim period and wish her all the best.

Our first order of business, I'll turn the call over to Anthony to read our safe harbor statement.

Thanks very much, Sam, and thank you, Suzanne.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Today's earnings release is available on the Veeco website.

Please note that we have prepared a slide presentation to accompany today's webcast.

We encourage you to follow along with the slides on veeco.com.

This call is being recorded by Veeco Instruments and is copyrighted material.

It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without Veeco's expressed permission.

Your participation implies consent to our recording.

To the extent that this call discusses expectations about market conditions, market acceptance and future sales of the company's products, future disclosures, future earnings, expectations or otherwise, make statements about the future, such statements are forward-looking and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made.

These factors are discussed in the Business Description and Management's Discussion and Analysis sections of the company's report on Form 10-K and Annual Report to shareholders and in our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K and press releases.

Veeco does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, including those made on this call to reflect future events or circumstances after the date of such statements.

During this call, management may address non-GAAP financial measures.

Information regarding such non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to GAAP measures of performance, is available on our website.

With that, I will turn the call over to John Peeler for his opening remarks.

Thank you, Anthony.

We completed 2017 with strong fourth quarter results.

Bookings grew for the third consecutive quarter to reach $179 million, and revenue increased by 9% sequentially to $143 million.

Non-GAAP operating income at $10.5 million represented the strongest quarter of the year, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.19 came in above the high end of our guided range.

We executed well in a competitive environment and we're entering 2018 with positive momentum.

Turning to the year as a whole.

2017 was a truly transformational year for Veeco.

We completed the acquisition of Ultratech, which is providing us with a more diversified revenue stream, and the integration is proceeding well with greater synergies than we originally expected.

We also completed the manufacturing consolidation in our New Jersey facility, generating good annual savings.

And lastly, we delivered nearly 41% non-GAAP gross margins, and our healthy bookings demonstrate our leading position in the markets we serve and give us confidence in our ability to accelerate profitable growth.

We will go into detail below in each of these end markets, but first, let me turn the call over to Sam for a review of the financials.

Thanks, John.

Today, I will be discussing our non-GAAP financial performance.

You can find a detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results in the press release and on our website.

But let me give you some color on our Q4 bookings, and then I will provide revenue details.

Q4 bookings of $179 million were up 10% sequentially and represented another solid bookings quarter for us.

The market with most growth in bookings were front-end semi and advanced packaging.

In advanced packaging, MEMS and RF filter markets, we are beginning to see a recovery as orders more than doubled in Q4.

We booked multiple lithography tools as well as a multi-tool order for our wet etch PSP tools supporting UBM etch and IBE etching.

In lighting, display and compound semi markets, we received multiple large multi-system orders from customers in China.

One such order from Focus Lightings was made public in December.

In addition, we received several orders for MOCVD and PSP products to support production of ROY LEDs, laser diodes and VCSELs.

In front-end semis, bookings growth was driven by capacity orders for 2 LSA systems.

Now moving to Q4 revenue details.

Q4 revenue distribution showed a high concentration of lighting, display and compound semi at 58% of revenue.

The majority of this revenue was shipment to LED customers in Malaysia, Korea and Taiwan.

Blue LED sales in China represented 13% of total Veeco revenues for Q4.

For full year of 2017, blue LED sales in China was 18% of total Veeco revenue.

Revenue from advanced packaging, MEMS and RF filter markets as well as front-end semi was 9% each due to softness in orders from those businesses in prior quarters.

Scientific and industrial made up 24% of total revenues driven by strength in shipments of Ion Beam tools to the data storage industry and SPECTOR systems in the optical coatings market.

Geographically, China was 18% of revenue, U.S. was 15%, and EMEA was 14% of total revenue.

Rest of the world increased to 53% driven by MOCVD sales into Malaysia, Korea and Taiwan.

Backlog at the end of Q4 was up by $35 million from the previous quarter.

At $334 million, this gives us a good visibility for the first half of 2018.

We expect 2018 to be a year of strong growth for us with stronger growth in front-end semi and advanced packaging, MEMS and RF filter markets.

As a result, we expect 2018 to be more diversified than 2017.

Now turning to P&L highlights.

Our fourth quarter performance was solid, with revenue near the midpoint of our guidance and non-GAAP gross margin, operating income and EPS all coming in at or above of the high end of our guided range.

Q4 revenue was $143 million, up 9% sequentially from Q3.

On a full year basis, revenue was $485 million.

Q4 non-GAAP gross margin was 41.5%, reflecting a favorable product mix and ongoing cost reduction efforts.

Full year 2017 non-GAAP gross margin was 40.6%.

Q4 non-GAAP OpEx was in line with guidance at $49 million.

Q4 non-GAAP taxes were a benefit of $600,000.

With the new U.S. tax law, we saw no material impact to 2017 non-GAAP taxes and we see no significant changes to 2018 taxes given the amount of NOL we are carrying.

As of year-end, we have approximately $300 million in NOLs.

Finally, Q4 non-GAAP EPS was $0.19 based on a diluted share count of 47 million shares.

Now moving to the balance sheet.

We ended Q4 with $328 million in cash and short-term investments, an increase of $7 million from Q3, driven by cash flow from operations of $19 million.

As of year-end, Veeco's foreign earnings of approximately $140 million was subject to U.S. repatriation tax.

However, with the new law, we were able to utilize foreign tax credit and R&D tax credits to eliminate our U.S. income tax obligation and expect no U.S. cash back burden in the foreseeable future.

As a result, our offshore cash is no longer subject to repatriation tax from the U.S. side.

However, it would still be subject to withholding taxes in certain countries.

Inventories were up in the quarter as we are getting ready for growth in 2018.

Long-term debt on the balance sheet was recorded at $276 million, representing the carrying value of the $345 million in convertible notes.

And finally, we announced a share repurchase program for $100 million on December 11, and in the last few weeks of December, we bought shares for a total amount of $3 million.

Now turning to Q1 guidance.

Q1 revenue is expected between $140 million and $165 million.

Non-GAAP gross margin is expected between 34% and 36%.

Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected between $46 million and $48 million.

Non-GAAP operating income is expected between $2 million and $10 million.

Non-GAAP tax expenses is expected between $1 million and $1.5 million.

GAAP loss is expected between $0.50 and $0.32 per diluted share.

Non-GAAP EPS is expected between negative $0.04 and positive $0.14 per diluted share.

And now for some additional color beyond Q1.

Overall, we are expecting strong growth in 2018 sales over 2017.

For gross margin, at this time, we see first half gross margin coming in towards the higher end of the previously guided 30% to 35% range.

Additionally, we continue to expect second half gross margin to be higher than the first half.

With the new tax law, we expect non-GAAP annual tax expense to be $4 million with some quarterly variation around it.

And with that, I'll turn the call back to John for a business update.

Thanks, Sam.

I'd like to begin this portion of the call by reviewing our key end markets, which currently total approximately $1.2 billion in size and encompass the following 4 areas: advanced packaging, MEMS and RF filters; LED lighting, display and compound semi; front-end semi; and scientific and industrial.

We're very well positioned to leverage our leading-edge technologies, which you can see along the bottom of the slide, into all 4 of these markets.

Markets are estimated to grow 50% by 2020 and reach about $1.8 billion.

Driving this growth are a multitude of key drivers, including growth of wafer-level packaging, artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, 3D sensing, micro LEDs and 5G RF.

Now let me go into more detail on each of our 4 markets.

Businesses serving the advanced packaging, MEMS and RF filter market include the lithography business we acquired from Ultratech and our wet etch and clean business we call PSP.

We saw a significant pickup in our advanced packaging business, driven mainly by demand from top-tier OSATs and IDMs for both copper pillar and wafer-level packaging applications.

Furthermore, we believe that we will see a strengthening of the Fan-out Wafer-Level Packaging market as key end users have resolved technical issues, coupled with a stronger penetration of these applications into the mid-level smartphone market.

As the market leader, we expect to see increasing volumes as capacity is added to address this demand.

According to industry reports, wafer-level packaging is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 16% from 2017 to 2020.

We're also seeing a demand pickup from NIMS, sensors and RF filter manufacturers, and our PSP business had the strongest revenue quarter in almost 2 years.

The combination of Ultratech lithography and PSP has increased critical mass and broadened our product offering and is providing substantial cross-selling synergy opportunities in both directions.

For the longer term, growth in these markets is underpinned by demand from a wide range of applications, including mobile devices, automotive, big data and 5G infrastructure.

Now turning to the LED lighting, display and compound semi market.

We remain in the leadership position in MOCVD and according to IHS, our market share for GaN LED was 55% in 2017.

Additionally, most regions are reporting fab utilizations of over 85% and we expect the market to remain robust.

During the quarter, we received an order for multiple EPIK 868 MOCVD systems from Focus Lightings.

And since we introduced the EPIK 868 last September, we've shipped several large orders to Chinese customers as our platform enables greater productivity and lower cost of ownership.

Feedback from customers has been excellent.

Outside of China and general lighting, we're seeing increasing strength in areas such as photonics and RF devices.

Just last month, we announced that OSRAM has placed follow-on orders for our K475i and Propel MOCVD systems.

These systems are designed for high-volume production of power electronics, laser diodes, RF semiconductor devices and LEDs.

VCSELs is another area within photonics where we're gaining traction.

Our PSP systems, in addition to our MOCVD systems, are using VCSEL manufacturing, and we're very excited about the opportunity to grow meaningfully as the year unfolds.

Growth drivers for us in this market include smartphones, driven by 3D sensing; LIDAR sensors for autonomous vehicles, and high-speed data transmission for requirements in data centers.

Beyond VCSELs, we're confident in our ability to capture meaningful market share in areas such as micro LEDs, where performance advantages and power efficiencies are needed in applications such as smartphones, TVs and augmented reality devices.

We're also well positioned in compound semi areas such as 5G-driven RF devices and power electronics.

Before I turn to the next market segment, I want to reiterate the announcement we made last Thursday.

I'm pleased to report that we have settled the patent litigation with AMEC and SGL Carbon and that we are back into business as usual in our MOCVD business.

We're happy with the successful resolution to our dispute and look forward to continue serving our customers in China and competing on the merits of our best-in-class products, technologies and customer service.

With that, let's turn to front-end semi.

With regard to our front-end semi business, we remain the market leader in LSA and captured approximately 40% market share in 2017.

We saw demand for equipment in Taiwan and China and had strong pull from industry leaders for our LSA tools.

Our customers are working to integrate our new melt tools into their 7-nanometers and 5-nanometer process nodes.

We're also engaged with a large foundry regarding a third evaluation tool and working with numerous other customers in our facility.

We remain very optimistic about the prospects for this business going forward and believe that our unique technology architecture has distinct advantages in meeting our customer process requirements.

Beyond laser anneal, we're also seeing strong interest from the photomask industry for our defect-free, blank wafer deposition tool for EUV mask applications.

And we're working very closely with them as EUV becomes adopted for high-volume manufacturing.

In the STT-MRAM market, we have good traction with our Ion Beam Etch system for patterning of MRAM, and we're the development tool of record at 3 leading semi device manufacturers who are currently looking to launch STT-MRAM for embedded memory applications next year.

And lastly, we're actively working with customers in their fabs as they evaluate our 3D inspection system.

We're seeing great interest in our 3D inspection tools for 3D NAND, DRAM and Logic customers.

Turning to our scientific and industrial market.

2017 was a strong year with 9% revenue growth.

Our optical coating systems ended the year with good momentum and strong annual bookings.

Bookings were broad-based and tied to optical components for laser, telecom and R&D applications.

It was also a good year in data storage as hard disk drive manufacturers continue to fill is specific technology capacity requirements with Ion Beam Systems.

And finally, we also launched Lancer, a new R&D Ion Beam Etch system to address next generations MEMS and magnetic sensor applications.

In closing, as we look ahead to 2018, we've got clear objectives.

First, we will complete the integration of Ultratech.

Adding Ultratech to our business has been instrumental in our goal to diversify our business going forward.

Second, we plan to launch a number of exciting new products to address the many growth opportunities where we're focused.

Stay tuned for announcements as of the year unfolds.

Third, we plan to deliver revenue growth in each of our 4 target markets.

In addition to a healthy backlog and solid bookings trends, ongoing positive dynamics in each of our end markets should lead to solid annual revenue growth across the board.

Fourth, we plan to exit 2018 a more diversified company, as Sam previewed early on the call.

Our 2 strongest areas for growth, front-end semi and advanced packaging, MEMS and RF filters, should result in a more balanced mix of business.

And lastly, we'll grow earnings faster than revenue.

With our continued focus on operational excellence, we can generate significant operational leverage and accelerate earnings in the year ahead.

With that, Sam and I would be happy to take your questions.

(Operator Instructions) First from Needham & Company, we have Edwin Mok.

First question I have on the 1Q guidance, I remember there was some talk about revenue recognition of 868 need to be pushed out to next year.

What happened there?

Is that factored into the guidance?

And then I have 2 follow-ups, please.

Sure, Edwin.

This is Sam.

Yes, as you would remember, we have shipped the few 868 tools in Q3, Q4 timeframe and we are expecting them to be installed and provide the demo capability and then recognize revenues.

So we are planning to revenue those tools in Q1 timeframe.

So that is part of the guidance here.

Okay, great.

That's helpful.

And then second question I have is on the advanced packaging MEMS and RF market.

It looks like things are starting to pick up as you guys suggest.

I wanted to understand, is the near-term shrink is more from RF and MEMS and you still would see advanced packaging more back half of '18, which is, I think, what you guys said before?

Or is advanced packaging also starting to pick up?

And how do you see the linearity of that business throughout this year?

So Edwin, we saw both areas pick up.

The advanced packaging grew substantially.

Not back to prior peak levels or anything, but we did have substantial growth.

And the MEMS and RF area also grew.

So I think both sides grew and both of our major businesses in these areas grew in bookings.

So first half gross margin, you said this is going to be at the high end of the guidance range.

Is that mostly due to mix or are you guys doing more work in terms of the margin front?

And also, with the settlement, there's -- I think, there's still ongoing concern about price competition in MOCVD.

Do you see that potentially derail your margin outlook?

Sure, Edwin.

I'll take that question.

So in terms of the gross margin coming in towards the higher end of our previously guided range, you would remember we have guided 30% to 35%, and now, it's coming in for the first half around 34%, 35% range, closer to 35%.

It is driven by a couple of factors.

I think one of the first one is we have a little bit better mix.

Our other businesses are a little bit stronger than what we previously expected, particularly, like John talked about, advanced packaging, MEMS, RF and also, front-end semi.

So some of these other businesses are providing us a little bit better mix.

And then we also completed our manufacturing consolidation-related efforts in New Jersey.

So that is providing us some good leverage on the cost side.

So both of those things are actually combining together to enable us to guide a little bit towards the higher end.

And in terms of the overall mix, as you look at the entire year, Edwin, what's happening here is that in the first half, we have a little bit higher proportion on mix of low-margin China business, which is what is bringing the gross margin down towards a mid-30.

But I expect them to kind of pick up from these numbers in Q3 and then Q4.

So overall, we continue to target exiting the year with 40% gross margin or more, so that remains our target, and expect mix to be much more favorable towards gross margin in the second half.

So that's how we see the year shaping up as of now.

Hopefully, that answers your question.

Moving on, we have Vishal Shah with Deutsche Bank.

Sam, just on the gross margin.

Now that the settlement is done, what do you expect your China margins to look like?

Should we still look into the low 30s or high-20% margins that you are seeing currently?

Or do you see some improvement there?

Sure.

So I think from a gross margin perspective, we do not really disclose gross margin by any region or any specific product line or any specific customer or a group of customers.

I would say that the China business for MOCVD would continue to remain below corporate average in terms of our overall gross margin.

Pricing, I would say, continues to remain competitive, but I think we are going to kind of balance the price and performance curve of that equation going forward.

So that's how we are managing the business.

I think our target remains 40% or higher.

And in that mix, for corporate average, there are some businesses higher than that and some businesses lower than that.

And as you are suggesting, some business, if it is extremely low margin that we may just have to make a different decision on that.

Okay, that's great.

And then, can you just talk about what the settlement does?

So can you assume your competitor basically start shipping their systems to the customer the way that they were doing before?

And where do you think the market shakes out in terms of just overall market share dynamics between the 2 of you?

So we, first of all, agreed not disclose the settlement terms.

So I hope to be cautious around that.

The -- SGL will be able to provide wafer carriers to the market for both Veeco and AMEC.

We will compete with our technology and our service and our products.

If you remember, we launched a new product for the market, specifically for the China market last year.

We've been winning orders.

And we think we can compete and have a healthy business there and win in the marketplace.

Clearly, we're not going to go back to where we were, where we were the only player in town.

There's going to be a 2-company competitive in the market, and we'll battle it out.

Our approach historically has been to innovate and work to deliver better products that have a better cost of ownership and, ultimately, lower our customers' cost.

So I think it's more back to a normal state.

That's great.

One last question.

I know you mentioned in the past that this competitive risk is only mostly focused in China.

Are you still seeing most of the other markets outside of China being really -- just your strong product offering?

Or do you think that some of the competitive risk is also spreading into other regions as well?

We haven't seen any traction in any other regions, so we continue to work there and do a great job for our customers.

Moving on from Stifel, Nicolaus, we have Patrick Ho.

John, can you give a little more color on your outlook for the overall MOCVD environment?

You talked about the fab utilization rates at 85% and higher.

Is that only for the top-tier guys or do you see those utilization rates, I guess, more broadly among the different tiers?

And do you see it sustainable -- which will help drive more MOCVD demand as 2018 progresses?

So the utilization rates are in the upper 80s in China and they're in the upper 70s for the Tier 2 in China, which is quite high.

Taiwan's in the 80s.

Korea might be low 80s or a little lower.

But overall, these are high rates.

Everybody is running their equipment kind of at pretty much full capacity.

Clearly, there are tools being added, but we expect a solid year in the marketplace this year.

I think we had some 400-plus reactors in 2017.

We think the market will grow over that number, maybe even significantly over that number in 2018.

So we're looking for a solid growth year here in the market and for Veeco.

And we're also looking at the emerging technologies which have a lot of promise, whether it's VCSELs or photonics; red, orange, yellow; laser diodes; 5G RF.

There are more and more applications that are starting to come out that, I think, we think gives the market good growth prospects over the longer term.

Great, that's helpful.

And my follow-up question, in terms of some of the advanced packaging in the MEMS and RF growth you talked about in your prepared remarks, you did kind of briefly mention some of the cross-synergy opportunities with PSP.

Was that the key driver to the growth in the December quarter?

Or was that still more the market starting to turn around and we haven't really yet seen, I guess, some of those cross-synergy opportunities you talked about in the past?

Sure.

I would say it's more the market.

The cross-selling potential has become very clear to us.

And if we think back, Ultratech had a stronger position in advanced packaging and a stronger position in the OSATs and in Taiwan.

Whereas, Veeco had a considerably stronger position in the MEMS and RF area.

So we're seeing opportunities to help get the Ultratech lithography tools in MEMS and RF applications, and those will pan out this year, we believe.

And similarly, Ultratech salespeople have helped our PSP penetrate new accounts in Taiwan, in OSATs and in other places.

But those, they take a while.

You can start working on the deals, but most of the real growth in bookings in Q4 was really from market improvements and that sort of thing.

So -- but there's some of both.

I think it's great to see that the synergies on the selling side are going to be bigger than we anticipated.

We'll move on to Daniel Baksht with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

A question on the MOCVD business.

Have you guys received additional EPIK 868 orders in China other than Focused Lightings?

And if not, is that part of the reason why you think the second half margins are looking better than first half?

And then separately, separate question, other than the MOCVD business.

Are the orders outside of China tied more to the EPIK 700 or EPIK 868 at this point?

We have seen additional EPIK orders in China beyond Focus Lightings.

And so we're winning at multiple customers.

Outside of China, they are tied more to the EPIK 700 than the EPIK 868.

And that's due to the where -- how we design the product to target the needs of the customers and kind of how they want to approach the business.

Okay, that's helpful.

And then separately, on Slide 8, it shows front-end revenue more than doubling in 2018.

I just wanted to kind of understand why, I think, consensus for semi CapEx is showing about mid-single-digit growth here.

And is that -- and secondly, is that kind of -- is that based on a pro forma outlook, including Ultratech?

Yes.

And it's a -- it's really new products in emerging applications.

I mean, we have the LSA business.

We do expect the traditional LSA business to grow.

We have had tools out in the market for melt.

We would expect to get some revenue from those tools this year, and those are new.

There was none before.

Moving on, we have the STT-MRAM product, the Ion Beam Etch.

We're expecting a significant uptick in orders and revenue for that product during the year.

We have maybe one tool or revenue last year.

There's a possibility for our business for EUV mask blanks, and that's not really in the plan but it's possible.

And then finally, there's Superfast.

The Superfast inspection product has been doing very well, it's been gaining momentum with customers.

And we're seeing a substantial pickup in activity and orders for that product.

So these are all products, other than the LSA, where revenue was quite small in the prior year, and they're all gaining acceptance and ramping.

And maybe just to add onto that, this was one of the -- one of the reasons that Veeco acquired Ultratech was Veeco had some products in the front-end but really lacked critical mass, had some very compelling technologies around Ion Beam Etch, which we've applied to STT-RAM, but now we're seeing new emerging opportunities for that technology.

But we have these technologies and really lack critical mass.

And by putting Veeco and Ultratech together, it really improved our critical mass on both sides.

It improved our account coverage across the world.

And the similar thing happened in advanced packaging, MEMS and RF.

Both companies had some weak spots, either geographically or in accounts, and as we brought them together, we created a lot stronger business.

So I think the front-end is panning out very nicely.

Moving on, from Benchmark, we have Mark Miller.

And the hearing no response, we will go ahead and move on.

(Operator Instructions) We'll go to David Duley with Steelhead Securities.

I was wondering, as you see the -- of the old Ultratech business ramp back up to traditional levels of revenue, is there any reason to think the structural profitability of that business has changed from prior to when you bought it?

Sure.

So I would say that the Ultratech business is beginning to recover compared to the last 1 or 2 quarters.

We had a good booking on the Ultratech business line.

I think there is more ramp-up on Ultratech business expected or needed to get it back to where it was previously.

In terms of the overall profitability of the Ultratech business, we are doing very well in terms of tracking towards achieving the synergies that we had highlighted.

So I would like to remind that we had about $15 million in OpEx cost reduction.

That is looking good.

We are in the middle of putting up ERP -- a new ERP system for them.

So that is going on very well.

We are also working on bringing down some cost on the material side of the supply, discounts and activities like those.

And then, the [30] John already mentioned, that was through cross-selling.

So all these 3 things combined, it is definitely true that we are improving the profitability or profit potential of Ultratech.

I think we need to see the big bookings or the order momentum pick up some more, and then will begin to flow in a lot more robust way.

Hopefully, that answers your question, David.

Yes.

And given, I guess, the -- I think you mentioned your MOCVD market share, did you say it was 50%?

And what was it the previous year?

Have you, I guess, determined there's some business in the market that is just too low of margin to address?

Yes.

I think we had mentioned that IHS said the blue GaN market share was 55%.

And previously, it was probably 75% or so.

But remember, previously, we were coming off a period where Veeco was the kind of remaining supplier in the market after AIXTRON bailed out and that sort of thing.

So we've kind of gone through a transition there.

We -- there is business that's too low margin for us to take, and we're passing on that and focusing on business where our products really have strength and add value and the customer values what we bring to the table.

We're not out there to win every deal at every cost.

It's just not worth it.

Okay.

And as far as -- the outlook in fan-out, and I guess, advanced packaging, lithography business, I think there was a bit of a pause in that market last calendar year.

And I think it's generally expected to be strong growth this calendar year and next year.

And I'm kind of wondering, from you guys' perspective, if you could just give us a little bit more flavor on do you see the spending broadening out from just one big customer that's been there the last couple of years?

And if so, how many customers do you think will ramp actual production volumes in fan-out in calendar '18?

We do see the business ramping out.

I think we took a pause.

We had some -- there were some companies that were planning to use fan-out and kind of moved to flip chip for a while and moved away from it.

But longer term, there's a need for Fan-out Wafer-Level Packaging and variance of that to meet the performance characteristics that people want to meet in smartphones and other new emerging devices.

So we see this market moving to other customers, we see other customers working on it or buying some tools and we think that will make a more healthy market that's not quite so lumpy as what is here now.

We'll looking at 16% CAGR on wafer-level packaging for the next number of years, and that will require extra capacity to meet that.

So I think this will be a better market.

So any sort of guess as to how many customers might actually put production capacity in place next year from what you can see?

I don't have a number, but it's more than a handful.

And we'll do something with it.

And there are some large customers really working hard on new approaches.

So...

Yes, David, we are working with all the key OSAT providers.

Of course, we have very good relationships with them, so there are a number of them.

And then also the large handset makers, not just one handset maker.

And of course, we will work in their supply chains.

So all those potential is definitely there.

And we work with those customers.

We have different customers that are at different stages.

Hard to say exactly how many will come in within 2018, but we are obviously working with many of them.

(Operator Instructions) Next, we'll move back to Mark Miller with Benchmark.

Just one question.

Have you -- just had a question about the VCSEL opportunity.

Have your sold reactors to VCSEL manufacturers or are they in test?

Or what's your status with that?

We have sold reactors to VCSEL manufacturers.

And beyond that, we've also sold PSP products.

So we're selling 2 different product lines in the VCSEL manufacturers, and I think that's proven to work well for us.

On the PSP business, one of the interesting things is almost wherever we sell MOCVD system, that customer is -- likely has a need for our PSP products.

They may not be buying them from us now, but we've penetrated more and more.

So those products actually go well together.

Not necessarily one-for-one, but they're a good combination.

Can you estimate in terms of, at least in the foreseeable future, what percent of your MOCVD reactor sales will go to China versus outside of China?

Will it be 50-50 or more heavily-weighted towards China?

So Mark, Sam here.

Look, the MOCVD market, I guess you're -- I assume you are talking regarding the blue GaN or blue LED market.

2017 has been a good year where there has been capacity expansion in China as well as outside of China, particularly Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia.

And in 2018, as John mentioned, utilization levels are good.

So expect to see growth in various countries.

How much it pivots towards China over different countries is a little bit less clear in terms of a timeline, and we would not know until we have the orders.

But suffice it to say, we expect China to grow and then rest of the world should grow us well.

Yes.

I think outside of the blue GaN, we'll see sales grow faster outside of China, and we'll grow with those businesses in -- outside of China.

And just the final question.

You're optimistic about the wafer-level fan-out.

Now it's well known that Apple has recently cut back on suppliers for the iPhone X. And I believe several chips in the iPhone X are using wafer-level fan-out.

But they are expecting these same suppliers maybe for a 6-month hiatus, and then things really pick up in the second half of this year.

Any impact you think from Apple's recent sourcing decisions on the wafer-level production (inaudible)?

No.

I think that's pretty much -- we've had pretty good visibility into where things were going there, so that's not a surprise to us.

And our goal has to be -- serve a broader based area of the advanced packaging market and really try to win in more customers.

So that's -- we're very focused on that.

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's presentation.

I'd like to turn the conference back over to John Peeler, CEO, for any closing remarks.

Well, thank you for joining us today or tonight, and we will look forward to seeing you in the field and on the next call.

Thanks.

Thank you.

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's earnings call.

We appreciate you joining us, and you may now disconnect.