Veeco Instruments Inc (VECO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and welcome to the Veeco fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Anthony Pappone, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    女士們、先生們,大家好,歡迎參加 Veeco 2024 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。(操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音。現在,我很高興向大家介紹主持人,投資者關係主管安東尼·帕波內。請繼續。

  • Anthony Pappone - Head of Investor Relations

    Anthony Pappone - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Bill Miller, Veeco's Chief Executive Officer; and John Kiernan, our Chief Financial Officer. Today's earnings release and slide presentation to accompany today's webcast is available on the Veeco website.

    謝謝大家,大家下午好。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有 Veeco 的執行長 Bill Miller 和我們的財務長 John Kiernan。今天的收益報告和與今天網路直播配套的幻燈片簡報可在 Veeco 網站上取得。

  • To the extent that this call discusses expectations for future revenues, future earnings, market conditions or otherwise make statements about the future, these forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. These risks are discussed in detail in our Form 10-K, annual report and other SEC filings.

    如果本次電話會議討論對未來收入、未來盈利、市場狀況的預期,或以其他方式對未來做出陳述,這些前瞻性陳述均基於管理層當前的預期,並受風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與所作陳述存在重大差異。這些風險已在我們的 10-K 表格、年度報告和其他提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了詳細討論。

  • Veeco does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, including those made on this call to reflect future events or circumstances after the date of such statements. Unless otherwise noted, management will discuss non-GAAP financial results. We encourage you to refer to our reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results, which you can find in our press release and at the end of the earnings presentation.

    Veeco 不承擔任何義務更新任何前瞻性聲明,包括本次電話會議中所作的聲明,以反映此類聲明發布日期之後的未來事件或情況。除非另有說明,管理層將討論非GAAP財務表現。我們建議您參考我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的調整表,您可以在我們的新聞稿和收益報告的結尾找到該調整表。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to our CEO, Bill Miller.

    接下來,我將把電話交給我們的執行長比爾·米勒。

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Anthony. 2024 was another successful year for Veeco. We reached several important milestones, grew the business, delivered solid profitability and strategically invested in several exciting long-term growth opportunities.

    謝謝你,安東尼。 2024年對Veeco來說又是成功的一年。我們實現了幾個重要的里程碑,發展了業務,實現了穩健的盈利,並對幾個令人興奮的長期成長機會進行了策略性投資。

  • Beginning with strategic milestones, as announced in a press release earlier today, we shipped an NSA system to a leading-edge semiconductor company for high-volume production of a 2-nanometer gate-all-around logic chips.

    從今天早些時候在新聞稿中宣布的戰略里程碑開始,我們向一家領先的半導體公司交付了一套 NSA 系統,用於大規模生產 2 奈米全環柵邏輯晶片。

  • We also reached an agreement to ship an LSA evaluation to a second leading memory customer in 2025, and we shipped a 300-millimeter GaN-on-Silicon evaluation system to a Tier 1 power device customer, with this customer having since provided positive feedback.

    我們還與第二家領先的記憶體客戶達成協議,將於 2025 年向其交付 LSA 評估系統;此外,我們還向一家一級功率裝置客戶交付了 300 毫米矽基氮化鎵評估系統,該客戶此後提供了積極的回饋。

  • Revenue from our semiconductor business reached another record in 2024, outperforming WFE growth for the fourth consecutive year. Our robust performance was primarily driven by record laser annealing revenue, including growth in LSA shipments to mature node customers as well as leading-edge shipments for high-bandwidth memory and gate-all-around.

    2024 年,我們半導體業務的營收再創紀錄,連續第四年超過了 WFE 業務的成長。我們強勁的業績主要得益於創紀錄的雷射退火收入,包括向成熟節點客戶交付的 LSA 出貨量成長,以及面向高頻寬記憶體和全環柵的領先出貨量。

  • Another key driver of growth came from wet processing, where our system is production tool of record and 3D packaging for AI. While investing for growth is core to our long-term strategy, expanding profitability is also important.

    另一個關鍵的成長驅動力來自濕式加工,我們的系統是人工智慧的記錄生產工具和 3D 包裝。雖然投資成長是我們長期策略的核心,但提高獲利能力也同樣重要。

  • In 2024, we successfully grew non-GAAP operating income and EPS while continuing to invest in our largest SAM expansion opportunities. Switching gears to our full year financial highlights. Veeco delivered top and bottom line growth with results coming in above the midpoint of our updated 2024 guidance.

    2024 年,我們成功實現了非 GAAP 營業收入和每股盈餘的成長,同時繼續投資於我們最大的 SAM 擴張機會。接下來,我們來看看全年財務亮點。Veeco實現了營收和利潤的雙重成長,業績超過了我們更新後的2024年業績指引的中點。

  • Revenue totaled $717 million, growing 8% from the prior year, led by a 13% year-over-year growth in our semiconductor business. Non-GAAP operating income grew 6% to $116 million and diluted non-GAAP EPS grew to $1.74.

    營收總計 7.17 億美元,比上年增長 8%,其中半導體業務年增 13%,帶動了整體營收成長。非GAAP營業收入成長6%至1.16億美元,稀釋後非GAAP每股盈餘成長至1.74美元。

  • Now for a look at our Q4 highlights. Revenue in the fourth quarter totaled $182 million, increasing 5% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating income, $27 million and non-GAAP EPS $0.41. Our semiconductor business delivered another solid quarter of revenue highlighted by record laser annealing revenue, including shipments to two leading-edge customers gate-all-around nodes. I'll now provide an overview of Veeco's role in the semiconductor manufacturing process as well as an update on key technologies driving business today.

    現在讓我們來看看第四季的亮點。第四季營收總計 1.82 億美元,年增 5%。非GAAP營業收入為2,700萬美元,非GAAP每股收益為0.41美元。我們的半導體業務又迎來了一個穩健的季度營收,其中雷射退火業務營收創歷史新高,包括向兩家領先的客戶交付了全包圍閘極節點。接下來,我將概述 Veeco 在半導體製造過程中的作用,並介紹目前推動業務發展的關鍵技術的最新進展。

  • Veeco technologies are critical for several leading-edge semi-manufacturing process steps. Leading-edge customer road maps require the most advanced annealing solutions to address scaling challenges associated with shrinking geometries and new architectures.

    Veeco 技術對於幾個領先的半導體製造流程步驟至關重要。領先的客戶路線圖需要最先進的退火解決方案來應對與幾何形狀縮小和新架構相關的擴展性挑戰。

  • Device scaling with incumbent technologies is becoming more challenging and as a result, the number of steps available to laser annealing in both logic and memory is increasing. Veeco is the market leader in laser annealing with our laser spike annealing system qualify as production tool of record for leading logic customers and one Tier 1 memory customer.

    使用現有技術實現裝置尺寸縮小變得越來越具有挑戰性,因此,邏輯和記憶體中可用於雷射退火的步驟數量正在增加。Veeco 是雷射退火領域的市場領導者,我們的雷射尖峰退火系統符合領先邏輯客戶和一家一級記憶體客戶的生產記錄工具標準。

  • Our recently launched next-generation NSA system expands laser annealing capabilities to enable precise anneals at a nanosecond dwell time, and is under evaluation at two advanced logic customers for several new applications.

    我們最近推出的下一代 NSA 系統擴展了雷射退火能力,可在納秒停留時間內實現精確退火,目前正在兩家先進邏輯客戶處進行評估,以用於幾個新的應用。

  • Veeco is also the industry leader in ion beam deposition for EUV mask blanks with our IBD EUV system, enabling deposition of defect-free films for EUV mask blank production. Our ion beam deposition technology is critical to the industry's road map and is expanding to adjacent mask blank steps as customers continue to explore new use cases. The growing need for energy-efficient compute is driving the semi road map to consider new materials and technologies to scale, optimize performance and reduce power consumption.

    Veeco 也是 EUV 掩模坯離子束沉積領域的產業領導者,我們的 IBD EUV 系統能夠沉積無缺陷薄膜,用於 EUV 掩模坯的生產。我們的離子束沉積技術對產業發展路線圖至關重要,並且隨著客戶不斷探索新的應用場景,該技術正在擴展到相鄰的掩模坯步驟。對節能運算日益增長的需求正在推動半導體產業的發展路線圖考慮採用新材料和新技術來擴展規模、優化性能並降低功耗。

  • As device geometries continue to shrink, incumbent technologies are struggling to lower resistivity, driving Tier 1 logic and memory customers to consider new solutions. Veeco's recently launched IBD300 system differentiates itself from incumbent technologies through its ability to preferentially deposit low-resistance metals. This can result in improved thin film properties and lower resistivity for critical metals in logic and memory, which directly impact device performance, speed and battery life.

    隨著裝置幾何尺寸不斷縮小,現有技術難以降低電阻率,這促使一級邏輯和記憶體客戶考慮新的解決方案。Veeco 最近推出的 IBD300 系統與現有技術的區別在於,它能夠優先沉積低電阻金屬。這可以改善邏輯和記憶體中關鍵金屬的薄膜性能和降低其電阻率,從而直接影響裝置的性能、速度和電池壽命。

  • Looking ahead, we're highly focused on working with Tier 1 customers to integrate our technology into their manufacturing processes and evaluate new applications. In advanced packaging, our wet processing system is production tool of record at a leading foundry, HBM manufacturer and OSATs.

    展望未來,我們將高度重視與一級客戶合作,將我們的技術整合到他們的製造流程中,並評估新的應用。在先進封裝領域,我們的濕式加工系統是領先的晶圓代工廠、HBM 製造商和 OSAT 公司的生產記錄工具。

  • Our system's ability to support challenging process capabilities has enabled our strong position in 3D packaging for AI, which drove strong growth in 2024 and expectations for growth to accelerate in 2025. And in advanced packaging lithography, capacity expansions in the AI and mobile markets have led to expectations of a recovery in 2025, driven by a broad range of customers.

    我們的系統能夠支援具有挑戰性的製程能力,這使我們在人工智慧 3D 封裝領域佔據了強大的地位,推動了 2024 年的強勁成長,並預計 2025 年的成長速度將加快。在先進封裝光刻領域,人工智慧和行動市場的產能擴張,使得人們預期該領域將在 2025 年復甦,而這主要得益於廣泛的客戶群。

  • Our strategy in the semiconductor market has been focused on expanding our served available market by investing in core technologies to enable industry inflections. Veeco technologies have exposure to leading-edge inflections in logic, memory and advanced packaging, enabling technology transitions such as gate-all-around, high-bandwidth memory, EUV lithography and 3D packaging for AI.

    我們在半導體市場的策略重點是透過投資核心技術來擴大我們所服務的市場,從而推動產業轉型。Veeco Technologies 接觸到了邏輯、記憶體和先進封裝領域的尖端技術變革,從而實現了諸如全環柵、高頻寬記憶體、EUV 光刻和人工智慧 3D 封裝等技術轉型。

  • In annealing, we forecast our SAM to grow from approximately $800 million to around $1.3 billion. We expect this to be driven by an increase in laser annealing intensity as logic and memory customers adopt laser annealing to address new challenges.

    在退火製程方面,我們預測我們的SAM將從大約8億美元成長到大約13億美元。我們預計,隨著邏輯和記憶體客戶採用雷射退火技術來應對新的挑戰,雷射退火強度的增加將推動這一趨勢。

  • In ion beam deposition, we project our SAM to grow to approximately $350 million for high-value front-end semi applications requiring critical film performance. Growth in AI is accelerating adoption of new technologies and materials that enable device scaling and address the growing need for energy efficient compute performance. We believe our IBD300 system has unique capabilities that can address each of these high-value challenges.

    在離子束沉積領域,我們預計我們的 SAM 將成長至約 3.5 億美元,用於對薄膜性能要求極高的前端半導體應用。人工智慧的快速發展正在加速新技術和新材料的採用,從而實現設備規模化,並滿足日益增長的節能運算效能需求。我們相信,我們的 IBD300 系統具有獨特的功能,可以應對這些高價值的挑戰。

  • In ion beam deposition for EUV mask blanks, we project our SAM to increase to over $120 million as ASML expands EUV and high NA capacity, and customers adopt our systems for new applications. And in advanced packaging, we see SAM expansion opportunities for our enabling wet processing technology for an increasing number of applications supporting AI and high-performance computing.

    在用於 EUV 掩模坯的離子束沉積方面,我們預計隨著 ASML 擴大 EUV 和高 NA 產能,以及客戶採用我們的系統進行新的應用,我們的 SAM 將增加到 1.2 億美元以上。在先進封裝領域,我們看到了SAM技術的擴展機會,我們的濕式加工技術能夠為越來越多的應用提供支援人工智慧和高效能運算。

  • As we look ahead, we believe our portfolio of enabling technologies for key inflections positions our semi business to outperform WFE over the long term. I'd now like to provide additional detail on our evaluation program.

    展望未來,我們相信,我們針對關鍵轉折點的一系列賦能技術,將使我們的半導體業務在長期內超越 WFE 業務。現在我想就我們的評估計劃提供更多細節。

  • Our evaluation program is essential to expanding our position in logic and memory, and we're investing in several evaluation systems to capture our largest SAM growth opportunities. Many evaluations are targeting several applications, which can result in follow-on business between $30 million to $60 million per application win, assuming 100,000 wafer starts per month. While the timing of adoption by system, customer and market will vary, customers are excited about the value proposition our technologies offer, and we're highly focused on executing.

    我們的評估計劃對於擴大我們在邏輯和記憶體領域的地位至關重要,我們正在投資多個評估系統,以抓住我們在 SAM 領域最大的成長機會。許多評估都針對多個應用,假設每月有 10 萬片晶圓開工,那麼每個應用程式成功帶來的後續業務收入可達 3,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。雖然不同系統、客戶和市場採用我們技術的具體時間會有所不同,但客戶對我們技術所提供的價值主張感到興奮,我們也高度專注於執行。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to John for a financial update.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給約翰,讓他報告一下財務狀況。

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Bill. Starting with revenue for the year. Revenue came in at $717 million, increasing 8% over the prior year. Our semiconductor business delivered $467 million in revenue, up 13% year-over-year and comprising 65% of revenue. Growth in the semiconductor market was largely driven by our laser annealing and advanced packaging wet processing systems.

    謝謝你,比爾。首先來看年度營收。營收達 7.17 億美元,較上年成長 8%。我們的半導體業務實現了 4.67 億美元的收入,年增 13%,佔總收入的 65%。半導體市場的成長主要得益於我們的雷射退火和先進封裝濕式加工系統。

  • Compound semiconductor revenue totaled $78 million, a decline from the prior year, representing 11% of revenue. Data storage revenue totaled $99 million, increasing 12% year-over-year and comprising 14% of total revenue. And scientific and other revenue was $74 million, a slight decline from the prior year, making up 10% of revenue.

    化合物半導體收入總計 7,800 萬美元,較前一年下降,佔總收入的 11%。資料儲存收入總計 9,900 萬美元,年增 12%,佔總收入的 14%。科學及其他收入為 7,400 萬美元,比前一年略有下降,佔總收入的 10%。

  • Moving to revenue by region. China comprised 36% of revenue up from the prior year, driven by growth in sales to semiconductor customers. Our Asia Pacific region, excluding China, made up 32% of revenue, led by shipments to semiconductor customers.

    將數據轉向按地區劃分的收入。中國市場佔總營收的36%,較前一年成長,主要得益於半導體客戶銷售額的成長。除中國以外,亞太地區貢獻了我們 32% 的收入,主要得益於對半導體客戶的出貨量。

  • United States totaled 23% of revenue, primarily driven by data storage customers. And lastly, EMEA was 9% of revenue for the year. Our order backlog ended the year at approximately $410 million, down approximately $80 million from the prior year, primarily attributed to our data storage business.

    美國市場佔總收入的 23%,主要得益於資料儲存客戶的推動。最後,歐洲、中東和非洲地區佔全年收入的 9%。本年度末,我們的訂單積壓約為 4.1 億美元,比前一年減少了約 8,000 萬美元,這主要歸因於我們的資料儲存業務。

  • Now looking at our full year 2024 non-GAAP operating results. Gross margin came in at 43.3%, relatively consistent with the prior year. Operating expenses increased 8% to $194 million, primarily driven by an increase in R&D investment. Operating income increased 6% from the prior year to $116 million and net income increased to $104 million with tax expense of $15 million, yielding an effective tax rate of 12%, an increase from 10% in the prior year. Diluted EPS increased to $1.74 for the year on 61 million shares.

    現在來看我們 2024 年全年非 GAAP 經營業績。毛利率為 43.3%,與上年基本持平。營運費用成長 8% 至 1.94 億美元,主要原因是研發投入增加。營業收入較上年增長 6% 至 1.16 億美元,淨收入增至 1.04 億美元,稅項支出為 1,500 萬美元,實際稅率為 12%,高於上年的 10%。本年度稀釋後每股收益增至 1.74 美元,股票數量為 6,100 萬股。

  • I'll now provide selected GAAP full year data. Amortization expense was approximately $7 million; our equity comp expense was $36 million; depreciation, $18 million; and net interest income was approximately $2 million.

    接下來我將提供部分符合美國通用會計準則(GAAP)的全年資料。攤銷費用約 700 萬美元;權益補償費用為 3,600 萬美元;折舊費用為 1,800 萬美元;淨利息收入約 200 萬美元。

  • GAAP net income of $74 million included a $28 million impairment charge resulting from our silicon carbide business not meeting our market expectations. This charge was offset by a $21 million gain from a reduction in the estimate of contingent consideration and $12 million in related tax benefits, resulting in a net benefit of approximately $5 million.

    GAAP淨收入為7,400萬美元,其中包括因碳化矽業務未達市場預期而產生的2,800萬美元減損支出。這項支出被或有對價估計減少帶來的 2,100 萬美元收益和 1,200 萬美元相關稅收優惠所抵消,最終淨收益約為 500 萬美元。

  • Turning to Q4 revenue by market and geography. Revenue came in at $182 million, up 5% from the prior year and down 1% sequentially. In line with our prior forecast, semiconductor revenue declined sequentially after a quarterly record in Q3, comprising 62% of revenue.

    接下來分析第四季按市場和地理劃分的收入情況。營收為 1.82 億美元,較上年成長 5%,較上季下降 1%。正如我們先前的預測,半導體收入在第三季創下季度紀錄後環比下降,佔總收入的 62%。

  • In the compound semiconductor market, revenue increased from the prior quarter to $23 million, totaling 13% of revenue. Data storage revenue declined to $14 million, comprising 8%. And as previously expected, scientific and other revenue increased to $33 million from $12 million in the prior quarter, which included shipments for quantum computing and research applications. Scientific and other made up 18% of revenue during the quarter.

    在化合物半導體市場,營收較上一季成長至 2,300 萬美元,佔總營收的 13%。資料儲存收入下降至 1,400 萬美元,佔總收入的 8%。正如之前預期的那樣,科學和其他收入從上一季的 1200 萬美元增加到 3300 萬美元,其中包括量子計算和研究應用的出貨量。本季度,科學及其他業務佔總收入的 18%。

  • Turning to quarterly revenue by region. The percentage of revenue from China increased to 39% due to an increase in semiconductor sales. Revenue from the Asia Pacific region, excluding China, was 31%. The United States came in at 19% and lastly, EMEA was 11%. Switching gears to our non-GAAP quarterly results. Gross margin totaled approximately 41.5% below our guidance, driven by a shift in product mix and additional spending for our evaluation programs.

    接下來來看按地區劃分的季度收入。由於半導體銷售額的成長,來自中國的收入佔比上升至 39%。除中國以外,亞太地區的收入佔比為 31%。美國佔 19%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區佔 11%。接下來我們來看看非GAAP季度業績。受產品組合變化和評估項目額外支出的影響,毛利率總額比我們的預期低了約 41.5%。

  • Operating expenses totaled $48 million at the low end of guidance. Income tax expense was approximately $4 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of approximately 14%. Net income came in at approximately $24 million and diluted EPS was $0.41 on 60 million shares.

    營運支出總額為 4,800 萬美元,處於預期範圍的下限。所得稅費用約為 400 萬美元,實際稅率約為 14%。淨利潤約 2,400 萬美元,稀釋後每股收益為 0.41 美元(股票數量為 6,000 萬股)。

  • Now moving to the balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $345 million, a sequential increase of $24 million. From a working capital perspective, our accounts receivable decreased by $35 million to $97 million, primarily resulting from the timing of when customer payments were due.

    接下來我們來看資產負債表和現金流量表的重點內容。本季末,我們的現金和短期投資為 3.45 億美元,比上一季增加了 2,400 萬美元。從營運資金的角度來看,我們的應收帳款減少了 3,500 萬美元,降至 9,700 萬美元,這主要是由於客戶付款到期時間的變化造成的。

  • Inventory increased by $5 million to $247 million, and accounts payable declined by $6 million to $44 million. Customer deposits included within contract liabilities on the balance sheet, decreased by $11 million to $49 million. Cash flow from operations increased from the prior quarter to $28 million, bringing our total for the year to $64 million and CapEx totaled $5 million during the quarter and $18 million for the year.

    庫存增加 500 萬美元,達到 2.47 億美元;應付帳款減少 600 萬美元,降至 4,400 萬美元。資產負債表上的合約負債中包含的客戶存款減少了 1,100 萬美元,降至 4,900 萬美元。經營活動產生的現金流較上一季增加至 2,800 萬美元,使全年現金流量總額達到 6,400 萬美元;本季資本支出總額為 500 萬美元,全年資本支出總額為 1,800 萬美元。

  • Turning to our Q1 outlook. Q1 revenue is expected to be between $155 million and $175 million. We expect gross margin of approximately 42%, OpEx between $47 million and $49 million, net income between $16 million and $22 million and diluted EPS between $0.26 and $0.36 on 61 million shares.

    接下來談談我們第一季的展望。預計第一季營收將在 1.55 億美元至 1.75 億美元之間。我們預計毛利率約為 42%,營運支出在 4,700 萬美元至 4,900 萬美元之間,淨收入在 1,600 萬美元至 2,200 萬美元之間,稀釋後每股收益在 0.26 美元至 0.36 美元之間(流通股數為 6,100 萬股)。

  • Turning to some additional color beyond Q1. Based on market conditions and our visibility, we expect Q2 revenue to be in a similar range to Q1 levels. I'll now provide qualitative commentary for each of our markets.

    接下來,我們來看看Q1以外的其他顏色。根據市場狀況和我們的預測,我們預計第二季營收將與第一季水準處於相似範圍內。接下來,我將對我們每個市場進行定性分析。

  • Beginning with the semiconductor market, we continue to expect a decline in investment for mature node customers in China. Outside of China, growth in AI and high-performance computing is driving an increase in leading-edge investment in areas such as gate-all-around, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging.

    首先來看半導體市場,我們預期中國成熟節點客戶的投資將會下降。在中國以外,人工智慧和高效能運算的成長正在推動對全方位閘極技術、高頻寬記憶體和先進封裝等領域的尖端投資增加。

  • As a result, we expect AI revenue to grow to 20% or more of revenue in 2025 from approximately 10% in 2024. We continue to advance our road maps in laser annealing, ion beam deposition and advanced packaging and are well positioned to take advantage of growth in leading-edge investment.

    因此,我們預計人工智慧收入將從 2024 年的約 10% 增長到 2025 年的 20% 或更多。我們不斷推進雷射退火、離子束沉積和先進封裝技術的發展路線圖,並已做好充分準備,迎接前沿投資的成長。

  • In the compound semiconductor market, we continue to see opportunities in solar and photonics which provide potential for revenue growth beginning in late 2025 into 2026.

    在化合物半導體市場,我們持續看到太陽能和光子學領域的機遇,這些機會有望從 2025 年底到 2026 年開始帶來收入成長。

  • We also remain excited for the potential to expand in GaN Power with our 300-millimeter GaN-on-Silicon solution. In data storage, our expectations are for approximately $60 million to $70 million decline in revenue in 2025. And in scientific, we're continuing to see strength in research areas like quantum computing, which have the potential to provide growth in 2025.

    我們對利用 300 毫米矽基氮化鎵解決方案拓展氮化鎵功率領域的潛力仍然感到興奮。在資料儲存領域,我們預計到 2025 年營收將下降約 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元。在科學領域,我們繼續看到量子運算等研究領域保持強勁勢頭,這些領域有可能在 2025 年實現成長。

  • Before we turn the call over to Q&A, I'd like to highlight why we believe Veeco is a compelling investment opportunity. First, some industry analysts and leading equipment providers project growth of the semi industry to over $1 trillion in the 2030 time frame, contributing to expectations for long-term growth in wafer fab equipment spending.

    在將電話會議轉入問答環節之前,我想重點說明我們為什麼認為 Veeco 是一個極具吸引力的投資機會。首先,一些產業分析師和領先的設備供應商預測,到 2030 年,半導體產業的規模將超過 1 兆美元,這促成了人們對晶圓製造設備支出長期成長的預期。

  • Second, Veeco has a portfolio of enabling technologies that are increasingly critical for several leading-edge inflections. Third, we believe our exposure to several high-growth areas of the market can enable our SAM to grow faster than growth in WFE spending. And fourth, we expect our investment strategy and execution to generate long-term value for Veeco shareholders.

    其次,Veeco 擁有一系列啟用技術,這些技術對於幾個前沿轉折點而言越來越重要。第三,我們相信,我們在幾個高成長市場領域的佈局能夠使我們的 SAM 成長速度超過 WFE 支出的成長速度。第四,我們預期我們的投資策略和執行能為 Veeco 股東創造長期價值。

  • With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator to open up Q&A.

    接下來,我將把電話轉交給接線員,開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Charles Shi, Needham & Company.

    查爾斯史,李約瑟公司。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon. A couple of questions. I want to start with the China. I think that you guys provided that qualitatively China will decline this year. That's the same you've had for a while. But I want to ask about Q1 because all the peers who reported before you, some of them seem to be guiding to flattish China in Q1, but some are probably seeing more of the immediate drop of the China revenue. So what do you see into Q1?

    您好,下午好。幾個問題。我想先從中國說起。我認為你們的觀點已經表明,今年中國經濟將會下滑。你一直用的也是這個。但我想問第一季的情況,因為在你之前發布業績報告的所有同業中,有些人似乎預測第一季中國市場將保持平穩,但也有些人可能會預期中國市場的營收將出現更明顯的短期下滑。那你對第一季有什麼看法?

  • And since I believe China probably accounts for a good amount of the backlog. Supposedly, you have good visibility of how much China can decline. Mind me if you give us a little bit more than quantitative and anything you can provide quantitatively, that would be great.

    而且我認為中國可能佔了積壓案件的很大一部分。據說,你對中國可能衰落的程度有很好的了解。如果您能提供一些量化數據以外的信息,那就太好了;如果您能提供任何量化數據,那就更棒了。

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure, Charles. I'm happy to do so. So we do have good visibility into the first half of China and backlog, and we expect our China revenue in the first half of 2025 to be about 25% to 30% of total revenue down from last year, China for the full year was about 36% of our total revenue with that slightly more weighted to Q1 than Q2.

    當然可以,查爾斯。我很樂意這樣做。因此,我們對中國上半年的業務和積壓訂單情況有較好的了解,預計 2025 年上半年中國市場的收入將佔總收入的 25% 至 30%,低於去年同期水準。中國市場全年的收入約佔總收入的 36%,其中第一季的營收略高於第二季。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks, [John]. That's very helpful color. The other question I do want to ask you more on the advanced packaging side. I did notice you talked about the web processing product, and it looks like you already saw strong growth for last year. Do you think it will accelerate in 2025?

    知道了。謝謝,[約翰]那是一個非常有用的顏色。我還想問您一個關於高級封裝方面的問題。我注意到您提到了網頁處理產品,而且看起來您去年已經取得了強勁的成長。你認為到2025年這種情況會加速嗎?

  • Mind me if you provide us a little bit more color on what's driving that and maybe a little bit more quantitatively, do you see more of the acceleration in the first half in the more immediate quarter or you're seeing something more coming up in the second half of the year?

    您能否更詳細地解釋一下推動這一趨勢的原因,並盡可能提供一些量化數據?您認為成長動能會在上半年或下一個季度更加明顯,還是會在下半年更加強勁?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Charles. We're really excited about the advanced packaging opportunity. We see this as an opportunity doubling in '25 over '24, and that's largely driven by wet processing. So we're really kind of benefiting from capacity expansions at a leading foundry, an HBM manufacturer as well as multiple OSATs.

    是的。查爾斯。我們對先進包裝技術帶來的機會感到非常興奮。我們認為,2025 年的機會將比 2024 年翻一番,這主要得益於濕式加工。因此,我們確實受益於一家領先的晶圓代工廠、一家 HBM 製造商以及多家 OSAT 工廠的產能擴充。

  • And so we see this as a multiyear opportunity. And also in litho, our business in '24 was pretty modest, and we're seeing that business pick up with a lot of breadth in advanced packaging as well. So as I said, our advanced packaging, including wet processing predominantly and secondarily, litho is doubling. So maybe from $75 million to $150 million.

    因此,我們認為這是一個多年機會。此外,在膠印領域,我們在 2024 年的業務相當有限,但我們看到,隨著先進包裝業務的蓬勃發展,這項業務正在迅速成長。正如我所說,我們的先進封裝技術,主要包括濕式加工,其次是光刻技術,正在翻倍成長。所以可能是7500萬美元到1.5億美元之間。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • That's a full year comment, right? $75 million to --

    那可是整整一年的評論啊,對吧?7500萬美元--

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Okay. Any color on --

    好的。任何顏色--

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I would say, John, it's ramping, but it's going to probably continue to grow from Q1 into Q2 and Q3, I think through the year.

    是的。約翰,我想說,它正在加速成長,而且我認為從第一季到第二季和第三季度,甚至全年,它可能會繼續成長。

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. And so we entered the year with a good backlog. And maybe, Charles, this ties back to your first question a little bit as well about visibility into the backlog. We're entering 2025 with virtually the same backlog in semiconductor that we started the year with. So the backlog is flat. But the composition of the backlog is different.

    是的。因此,我們帶著充足的積壓訂單進入了新的一年。查爾斯,或許這與你的第一個問題——關於待辦事項的可見性——也有些關聯。進入 2025 年,我們的半導體體積壓訂單量與年初時幾乎相同。所以積壓工作量維持不變。但待辦事項的構成有所不同。

  • So at the beginning of the year, we had a higher concentration of backlog in -- with our China customers for their mature business. As we enter 2025, a higher concentration and an increase in the semi backlog comes from area like 2-nanometer gate-all-around and advanced packaging. So we've got a reasonable visibility there as well.

    所以年初的時候,我們的積壓訂單主要集中在中國客戶成熟業務方面。進入 2025 年,半導體體積壓訂單的集中度將提高,2 奈米環柵封裝和先進封裝等領域的需求也將增加。所以我們在那裡也有一定的可見度。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Thanks. Really appreciate the color. Thanks. I'll be back in the queue.

    謝謝。非常喜歡這個顏色。謝謝。我會重新排隊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rick Schafer, Oppenheimer.

    Rick Schafer,奧本海默。

  • Wei Mok - Analyst

    Wei Mok - Analyst

  • This is [Wei Mok] on the line for Rick. Congrats on your NSA shipments. This customer looks like it's separate from the other two customers that you currently have on the NSA evaluation program. So I was wondering, has this customer been on the eval program before? Or -- and what gave them the comfort in the decision to make this purchase ahead of the other two that are still on eval?

    這是魏莫在幫瑞克打電話。恭喜您收到美國國家安全局的貨物。這位客戶看起來與您目前參與 NSA 評估計劃的另外兩位客戶是不同的。所以我想知道,這位客戶之前是否參加過評估計畫?或者——是什麼讓他們有信心優先購買這件商品,而不是其他仍在評估中的兩件商品?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So this shipment came as part of a multi-tool laser annealing system order from this customer in 2024. And their goal is to enter the market kind of at the 2-nanometer gate-all-around. And so this was not -- this is a new customer for us, but we did not provide an evaluation tool. So this is a straight sale. So we're now qualified at all four, if you will, advanced logic customers for gate-all-around nodes for LSA.

    所以這批貨物是該客戶在 2024 年訂購的多工具雷射退火系統的一部分。他們的目標是以 2 奈米級製程全面進入市場。所以,這並不是——這是我們的新客戶,但我們沒有提供評估工具。所以這是一筆直接交易。所以,我們現在已經獲得了所有四個(如果你願意這麼說的話)高級邏輯客戶的 LSA 全環路節點資格。

  • And we expect growth in gate-all-around to really ramp in 2025 with these customers. And I guess I'll just circle back on the NSA eval since you mentioned it. Those evals are going well, and we're actually looking -- the customers are looking at us for multiple applications.

    我們預計,隨著這些客戶的加入,到 2025 年,全方位門禁系統的成長將會真正加速。既然你提到了,那我就再回頭談談美國國家安全局的評估吧。這些評估進展順利,實際上客戶正在考慮將我們的產品應用於多個領域。

  • Wei Mok - Analyst

    Wei Mok - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks. I appreciate that. I just wanted to go back to a question on China. I know in the past, you guys commented on seeing China exposure normalizing to around 20% or getting back there. So in light of the export restrictions and everything that talks to tariffs, so I guess you're not seeing any direct impacts on that in the first half of the year. So is it fair to say that you're seeing more of that coming in, in the second half of the year? And anything has changed with that 20% China bogey, could it be lower? Thanks.

    偉大的。謝謝。我很感激。我只是想回到之前關於中國的問題。我知道你們之前曾評論說,預計對中國的曝險會恢復到 20% 左右。鑑於出口限制以及所有與關稅相關的因素,我想在今年上半年你不會看到任何直接影響。那麼,是否可以說,在今年下半年,這種情況會更普遍?關於中國20%的預測有什麼變化嗎?會不會更低?謝謝。

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So thanks for the question, Wei. So yes. So what we've seen from changes in regulations, it really didn't have an impact to our near-term view on China. We didn't have backlog with customers that were added to the entity list for systems backlog, nor did any regulations come out that change licensing requirements for our products. So in the near term, not an impact. Long-term view of regulations, how regulations may change and what the impact there is.

    謝謝你的提問,魏。是的。因此,從監管變化來看,它並沒有對我們近期對中國的看法產生影響。我們沒有因係統積壓而被列入實體清單的客戶積壓,也沒有任何法規出台改變我們產品的授權要求。所以短期內不會有影響。從長遠角度看待法規,法規可能會如何變化以及會產生什麼影響。

  • Our view on China had been that we were seeing less of these new opportunities or new fabs and new projects coming -- being funded or invested in. And that's what had us say that we see business slowing down for China as equipment purchases over the last couple of years get digested and that we have good visibility for about half the year. So we see -- as I said in an earlier question that we see about 25% to 30% of our total revenue coming from China in the first half of the year and a lesser number in the second half of the year.

    我們之前對中國的看法是,我們看到的新機會、新工廠和新項目越來越少——獲得資金或投資的也越來越少。正因如此,我們才說,隨著過去幾年採購的設備逐漸消化,我們看到中國的業務正在放緩,而且我們對今年大約半年的業務前景有較好的預期。正如我在先前的問題中所說,我們看到,今年上半年我們總收入的 25% 到 30% 來自中國,下半年這個比例會更低。

  • Wei Mok - Analyst

    Wei Mok - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Wei.

    謝謝你,魏。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Miller, Benchmark.

    馬克·米勒,基準。

  • Mark Miller - Analyst

    Mark Miller - Analyst

  • I'm just wondering if you can provide some more color on memory, specifically high-bandwidth memory. And also NAND reported very strong sequential improvements in shipments to the NAND customers. I'm just wondering what you're seeing, if you're seeing anything in NAND?

    我想請您詳細介紹一下內存,特別是高頻寬內存。此外,NAND 還報告稱,其對 NAND 客戶的出貨量也實現了非常強勁的環比增長。我只是想知道你看到了什麼,你在NAND快閃記憶體裡看到什麼了嗎?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We don't have any position in NAND, Mark. I would say we're at the point with our nanosecond annealing system where we're doing some preliminary demos in NAND, but we haven't placed an eval at this time. So really not much exposure there.

    馬克,我們沒有持有NAND的任何股份。我想說,我們的奈秒退火系統目前已經發展到可以在 NAND 上進行一些初步演示的階段,但目前還沒有進行評估。所以在那方面其實沒什麼曝光機會。

  • And in high bandwidth memory, we actually have -- we are a production tool of record with our LSA systems with 1 DRAM customer, and we've been able to win their logic die and then the peripheral logic on each level of the high-bandwidth memory stack. I think we just announced on our call here that we have an agreement with the second DRAM customer, and we'll be placing an eval probably midyear, mid-2025. And I would say, as I look at -- as the business continues with HBM in 2025, and we were shipping volume in '24 as well.

    在高頻寬記憶體領域,我們實際上已經——我們憑藉 LSA 系統成為 DRAM 客戶的生產記錄工具,並且我們已經贏得了他們的邏輯晶片,以及高頻寬記憶體堆疊每一層的外圍邏輯。我想我們剛剛在電話會議上宣布,我們與第二家 DRAM 客戶達成了協議,我們可能會在 2025 年年中或年中進行評估。而且我認為,展望未來——隨著 HBM 在 2025 年繼續發展,我們在 2024 年的出貨量也相當可觀。

  • Mark Miller - Analyst

    Mark Miller - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mark.

    謝謝你,馬克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gus Richard, Northland Capital.

    Gus Richard,北地資本。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. On the LSA, I want to make sure I understand. Have you been qualified for gate-all-around with LSA?

    是的。謝謝您回答我的問題。關於LSA,我想確保我理解了。您是否已取得LSA全方位登機口資格?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. All the customers were qualified for their gate-all-around.

    是的。所有客戶都符合全方位大門的條件。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Okay. And then is NSA being looked at by the logic guys for -- is the incremental application backside power?

    好的。那麼,邏輯專家是否正在調查 NSA 是否擁有增量應用的反向權力?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • They're looking at a number of applications for more kind of -- extending the more traditional front side annealing. And they've also looked at backside as well. They're looking at a few different applications there. And I guess just to circle back on your gate-all-around question there. When we look at growth drivers in '25, we see gate-all-around really starting to ramp. And we think gate-all-around has the potential to double for us in '25 over '24. That would compensate for some of the China headwinds that John was mentioning a little earlier.

    他們正在研究多種應用,以擴展更傳統的正面退火過程。他們也研究了背面。他們正在研究幾種不同的應用。我想再回到你剛才提出的關於大門的問題。當我們展望 2025 年的成長動力時,我們發現全方位的大門建設真的開始加速發展了。我們認為,2025 年全場門票收入有可能比 2024 年翻倍。這樣可以彌補約翰之前提到的一些來自中國的不利因素。

  • Anthony Pappone - Head of Investor Relations

    Anthony Pappone - Head of Investor Relations

  • Got it. And then just in terms of your hard disk drive revenue at this point, I'm assuming in that, that is just purely spares and service?

    知道了。那麼,就您目前的硬碟收入而言,我假設這只是指備件和服務收入?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Yes, correct. That's -- we didn't really have any significant systems bookings in '24. And given our lead time, that window is closed on '25 systems revenue.

    是的。是的,沒錯。也就是說——我們在 2024 年並沒有任何重要的系統預訂。考慮到我們的準備時間,2025 年系統收入的窗口期已經關閉了。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Got it. And then -- and I guess just because nobody else will ask. On the scientific and other, I mean, there's always a budget flush in the fourth quarter. You had a very strong quarter there. Are you kind of looking at a similar revenue range? Or is quantum computing really starting to drive a little more incremental demand for tools that address that market?

    知道了。然後——我想大概是因為沒人會問吧。就科學和其他方面而言,我的意思是,第四季總是會有預算充裕的情況。你們上個季度業績非常出色。你們的營收目標也差不多嗎?或者,量子運算是否真的開始推動對滿足該市場需求的工具產生更大的增量需求?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Gus, I would say we are seeing an increase in quantum computing activity year-over-year. So these are larger systems. And so they're going to show up kind of lumpy in our numbers, whether we have a system or two or we don't on top of kind of our base scientific business. So we're forecasting our scientific segment to grow in 2025.

    Gus,我認為我們看到量子計算活動逐年增加。所以這些都是規模更大的系統。因此,無論我們除了基本的科學業務之外,是否擁有一個或兩個系統,它們都會在我們的數據中呈現出不均衡的趨勢。因此,我們預測我們的科學研究業務部門將在 2025 年成長。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Okay. And I'm assuming that's molecular beam epitaxy?

    好的。我猜那是分子束外延生長法?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Correct, yes. And they're kind of Frankenstein-type tools. It may have an ALD off the side of it, but largely they're predominantly MBE with modifications.

    沒錯。它們有點像是科學怪人式的工具。它可能帶有 ALD 的邊角,但主要以 MBE 為主,並進行了一些改進。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. So the price tag is more than single-digit millions?

    知道了。知道了。所以價格超過數百萬美元?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • They -- when they're all packaged together, they can be over $10 million. They may come in separate bits, but yes, they are big opportunities. That's why they're pretty lumpy.

    它們——如果全部打包在一起,價值可超過 1000 萬美元。它們或許會以零散的形式出現,但沒錯,它們都是巨大的機會。所以它們表面才會凹凸不平。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you very much.

    知道了。非常感謝。

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Gus.

    謝謝你,格斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dave Duley, Steelhead Securities.

    Dave Duley,Steelhead Securities。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • Yes. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I guess just to start with, you talked about the first half of the year. Could you give us an idea what you think for total revenue is first half versus second half? And then the same thing for semi. That would be very helpful.

    是的。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想先從你談到今年上半年的情況說起。您能否大致估算一下上半年和下半年的總收入狀況?半自動也是如此。那將非常有幫助。

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So yes. So Dave, let me try to cover that by the markets for the full year. And I'll start with data storage. So as we indicated, we expect that the data storage revenue to be down about $60 million to $70 million year-on-year, representing -- we don't have expectations for shipping systems to customers, and it's just a service and aftermarket business there.

    是的。戴夫,讓我來嘗試用全年市場數據來解釋。我先從資料儲存說起。正如我們所指出的,我們預計資料儲存收入將年減約 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元,這意味著——我們對向客戶交付系統沒有預期,這只是一項服務和售後市場業務。

  • If I look at the semiconductor market, there's really -- as we've described on this call so far, really two elements to the semiconductor market for 2025. And we do see the opportunity for that market to have growth in 2025. On the one side, we have expectation that China business will be down.

    如果我觀察半導體市場,正如我們到目前為止在這次電話會議中所描述的那樣,2025 年的半導體市場實際上有兩個要素。我們確實看到了該市場在 2025 年實現成長的機會。一方面,我們預期中國市場的業務將會下滑。

  • On the other side, Bill has mentioned that we have expectation that our advanced packaging business and our business supporting gate-all-around has the opportunity to double. So you take that into consideration, we see the opportunity for growth in the semiconductor business despite the China headwinds. And then in the compound semi side, we are coming off low volumes in 2024.

    另一方面,比爾提到,我們預計我們的先進包裝業務和全方位閘門支援業務有機會翻一番。考慮到這些因素,儘管面臨來自中國的逆風,我們仍然看到半導體產業存在成長機會。然後,在複合半導體方面,我們預計 2024 年銷售量將保持在低位。

  • We do see some opportunities in solar and photonics providing the opportunity for revenue growth in the second half of the year, in the compound semi side. And as Bill just mentioned, the expectation with strength in areas like quantum computing on the scientific side that we do see opportunity for growth there. So I'd say, Dave, we're not making a quantitative call on the full year and a first half versus second half there. But that's our view of the markets for 2025.

    我們看到太陽能和光子學領域存在一些機遇,預計在今年下半年為複合材料半導體領域的收入成長提供機會。正如比爾剛才提到的,我們預計在量子計算等領域,科學方面將擁有強大的實力,我們也看到了這些領域的成長機會。所以我想說,戴夫,我們不會就全年以及上半年和下半年的情況做出量化判斷。但這就是我們對 2025 年市場的看法。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • Okay. And essentially, you've already kind of taken the down draft in the hard disk drive business. So now all these moving parts really comes down to the semi growth outside of China versus the semi decline inside of China. Is that kind of --

    好的。從本質上講,你已經受到了硬碟業務下滑的影響。所以現在所有這些變數其實都歸結於中國以外半導體產業的成長與中國境內半導體產業的衰退。是那種嗎?--

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Correct. And I think when you meld those together, our view is that's flat to up. And it's clear the first half. The second half, we're going to -- it's not totally clear yet how that's going to go.

    正確的。我認為,將這些因素綜合起來,我們的觀點是,情況從平坦到上升。很明顯,前半部就是這樣。下半場,我們將會——目前還不完全清楚會如何進行。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • Okay. And then there's been a lot of chatter on HBM spending, some customers seem to have been qualified and are moving forward with spending and some others aren't. In total, what would you expect your HBM business to do in 2025 versus 2024? I can't remember if you've actually quantified how big it is. If you could help us understand how meaningful it is, that would also be great.

    好的。此外,關於 HBM 消費也有很多討論,有些客戶似乎已經符合資格並開始消費,而有些客戶則沒有。整體而言,您預計您的 HBM 業務在 2025 年與 2024 年相比會有哪些變化?我不記得你是否已經量化過它的大小了。如果您能幫助我們理解它的意義所在,那就太好了。

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. I would say we've been shipping high-bandwidth memory laser annealing tools to one customer where we are qualified. And our view is that will remain robust for 2025. And as I said, we're just entered into an eval agreement with the second customer, and that tool is going to ship in middle of '25. So that's not going to have any revenue impact on '25. So I would say our HBM revenue is nearly flat and steady with this 1 customer.

    是的。我想說,我們已經向一位客戶交付了高頻寬記憶體雷射退火設備,我們具備相應的資格。我們認為,到 2025 年,這種趨勢仍將保持強勁。正如我所說,我們剛剛與第二位客戶簽訂了一份評估協議,該工具將於 2025 年年中交付。所以這不會對 2025 年的收入產生任何影響。所以我覺得,就這群客戶而言,我們的 HBM 收入基本上保持穩定。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • Okay. And then as far as the NSA evaluation or really when you start to see NSA ramping into volume production, will -- are some of these applications -- help us understand how much of it is truly additive and how much is somewhat cannibalistic from applications that you've already won that would have been addressed by an LSA tool?

    好的。那麼,就 NSA 評估而言,或者當你開始看到 NSA 逐步投入批量生產時,這些應用是否能幫助我們了解其中有多少是真正意義上的新增功能,又有多少是蠶食了你已經贏得的、原本可以通過 LSA 工具解決的應用呢?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • A lot of the -- I would say 80%-plus are probably incremental. There's a lot of applications where we're doing material modification because we're only modifying the top shallow surface of the structure and not heating up the whole structure. So the way the machine operates is a lot different than our traditional laser annealing system.

    其中很多——我估計超過 80% 可能是增量的。在許多應用中,我們進行材料改質是因為我們只改性結構的頂部淺表面,而不會加熱整個結構。因此,這台機器的運作方式與我們傳統的雷射退火系統大不相同。

  • What we are seeing though in some gate-all-around applications where there'll be an incremental step for gate-all-around annealing that could be nanosecond annealing and we'll keep the laser annealing steps. There'll be possibly an incremental step there. So what I would say to the first order, it's largely incremental, not cannibalistic.

    不過,我們看到一些環柵應用中,環柵退火將採用增量步驟,例如奈秒級退火,而我們將保留雷射退火步驟。可能會採取循序漸進的方式。所以,對於第一階段,我想說的是,這在很大程度上是漸進式的,而不是蠶食式的。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Dave.

    謝謝你,戴夫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Miller, Benchmark.

    馬克·米勒,基準。

  • Mark Miller - Analyst

    Mark Miller - Analyst

  • I just want to revisit where you're at in the ion beam for thin tungsten films. And I believe you were in two customers, anything new there?

    我只是想再次了解您在利用離子束製備鎢薄膜方面取得的進展。我記得你接待了兩位顧客,有什麼新的狀況嗎?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We have two tools at DRAM memory makers. We're continuing to work with them. We're probably going to continue that through 2025. There's a lot of customer engagement. And as you know, Mark, this is a pretty exciting opportunity to put the fourth deposition technology into the fab, which is pretty exciting. And as I said, the customers are engaged.

    是的。我們DRAM記憶體製造商有兩種工具。我們將繼續與他們合作。我們可能會持續到2025年。客戶互動非常活躍。如你所知,馬克,這是一個非常令人興奮的機會,可以將第四種沉積技術應用到晶圓廠中,這非常令人興奮。正如我所說,顧客們都很投入。

  • We're jointly working together through integration issues, downstream integration issues to incorporate the ion beam deposition system into their production line. So I would say, I expect that evaluation to continue throughout 2025 at both customers with high engagement.

    我們正在共同努力解決整合問題、下游整合問題,將離子束沉積系統整合到他們的生產線中。因此,我認為,對於參與度高的客戶,這種評估將在 2025 年繼續進行。

  • Mark Miller - Analyst

    Mark Miller - Analyst

  • Can you give us an estimate of the potential for follow-on orders in that business?

    您能否估算一下該業務後續訂單的可能性?

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We see -- for memory type applications per 100,000 wafer starts, it's probably $30 million to $40 million per application per node per customer.

    是的。我們看到——對於每 10 萬片晶圓的記憶體應用,每個應用每個節點每個客戶的成本可能在 3000 萬美元到 4000 萬美元之間。

  • Mark Miller - Analyst

    Mark Miller - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you. Mark.

    謝謝。標記。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dave Duley, Steelhead Securities.

    Dave Duley,Steelhead Securities。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • Yes. I wanted to just slip one more question in here. Regarding the gross margins through the first half of the year and perhaps in the second half, given the mix that you expect from all your segments. You sound like you have a pretty good idea about the directional pieces of the business. How should we think about gross margins progressing through the year?

    是的。我只想再問一個問題。關於今年上半年以及下半年的毛利率,考慮到您對各個業務板塊的預期組合。聽起來你對公司的發展方向有相當清楚的認知。我們該如何看待毛利率在一年內的變化?

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So that's a good question. Thanks, Dave. Yes, we expect -- we ended 2024 for the full year with 43% gross margin and our expectation for 2024, that gross margins would be more in the 42% range. And the principal reason for that is as we see lower revenues coming from China customers and data storage customers, that gives us a mix headwind to gross margins because they typically have higher gross margins for those product lines.

    是的。這是個好問題。謝謝你,戴夫。是的,我們預期-2024 年全年毛利率為 43%,我們預期 2024 年毛利率將更接近 42%。主要原因是,來自中國客戶和資料儲存客戶的收入下降,這對毛利率構成了不利影響,因為這些產品線的毛利率通常較高。

  • And then we see additional business coming from the advanced packaging area and the back end typically has a bit lower margins there. We have a number of gross margin improvement initiatives that we have going on to partially offset the impact of the product mix as we improve manufacturing efficiencies, efficiencies and installing, warranting our tools and other efficiency objectives there. But as we see it now, Dave, we're seeing gross margins closer to the 42% range coming into 2025.

    然後我們看到來自先進包裝領域的額外業務,而後端利潤率通常較低。我們正在進行多項提高毛利率的舉措,以部分抵銷產品組合帶來的影響,同時提高生產效率、工具安裝和保固效率,並實現其他效率目標。但就目前來看,戴夫,我們認為到 2025 年,毛利率將接近 42%。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • And will -- do you think that 42% goes down with the mix of business as far as China dropping and there's basically no hard disk drive business -- systems business?

    你認為隨著中國市場萎縮,硬碟業務(系統業務)基本上消失,42% 的市佔率會下降嗎?

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Well, that's what I'm saying. That's the principal reason that we're seeing and calling about a 42% gross margin for 2025 coming down from about 43% in 2024.

    嗯,我就是這個意思。這就是我們預計 2025 年毛利率將達到 42% 左右,低於 2024 年 43% 左右的主要原因。

  • David Duley - Analyst

    David Duley - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    John P. Kiernan - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • You're welcome. Thank you.

    不客氣。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to Bill Miller, CEO, for his closing comments.

    由於沒有其他問題,我現在將會議交給執行長比爾·米勒,請他作總結發言。

  • William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    William Miller - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'd like to thank our customers and shareholders along with the Veeco team for their continued support. Have a great evening. Bye.

    我要感謝我們的客戶、股東以及 Veeco 團隊一直以來的支持。祝你有個美好的夜晚。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. The conference of Veeco has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。Veeco的會議已經結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。