美國合眾銀行 (USB) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the US Bancorp second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 10:00 AM Central Time. I will now turn the conference over to Brian Mauney, Director of Investor Relations for US Bancorp. ***

歡迎參加美國合眾銀行（US Bancorp）2026 年第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）本次電話會議將被錄音，並自今日起約於中部時間上午 10:00 提供重播。現在我將把會議交給美國合眾銀行投資人關係總監 Brian Mauney。***

Thank you, Krista, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Gunjan Kedia, and Vice Chair; and Chief Financial Officer, John Stern. In a moment, Gunjan and John will be referencing a slide presentation together with their prepared remarks. A copy of the presentation, our press release and supplemental analyst schedules can be found on our website at ir.usbank.com. Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty.

謝謝你，Krista，各位早安。今天與我一同出席的有本公司董事長暨執行長 Gunjan Kedia，以及副董事長暨財務長 John Stern。稍後，Gunjan 與 John 將配合投影片簡報進行其事先準備的發言。簡報檔、新聞稿及補充分析師附表可於我們網站 ir.usbank.com 取得。請注意，今日電話會議中的任何前瞻性陳述均可能受到風險與不確定性影響。

Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on page 2 of today's earnings presentation, our press release and reports on file with the SEC. Following our prepared remarks, Gunjan and John will be happy to take questions that you have. I will now turn the call over to Gunjan.

可能對我們目前前瞻性假設造成重大變動的因素，已載於今日財報簡報第 2 頁、新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）申報之文件中。在我們的事先準備發言結束後，Gunjan 與 John 將很樂意回答各位的提問。現在我將把電話會議交給 Gunjan。

Thank you, Brian, and welcome to our team. Good morning, everyone. Beginning on slide 3. This quarter, we delivered earnings per share of $1.35, an increase of approximately 22% year over year. Record net revenue of $7.7 billion highlights the strength of our diversified business mix and improved execution.

謝謝你，Brian，也歡迎加入我們團隊。各位早安。請看投影片第 3 頁。本季我們每股盈餘為 1.35 美元，年增約 22%。淨營收創下 77 億美元新高，凸顯我們多元化業務組合的實力與執行力的提升。

Results in the quarter reflect strong progress against our three strategic priorities. Revenue growth accelerated to 10.1% year over year. Expense discipline remains a hallmark for us with 400 basis points of positive operating leverage this quarter. Our payments transformation is differentiating us and driving innovative client value propositions, especially for the Gen Z and younger generations. Importantly, we delivered these results while maintaining strong returns, credit performance and capital levels.

本季成果反映我們在三大策略優先事項上取得強勁進展。營收成長加速至年增 10.1%。費用控管仍是我們的核心特色，本季營運槓桿為正 400 個基點。我們的支付轉型使我們更具差異化，並推動創新的客戶價值主張，特別是針對 Z 世代與更年輕族群。重要的是，我們在維持強勁報酬、信用表現與資本水準的同時，交出了這些成果。

John will provide more details on our financial performance in his opening remarks. Turning to slide 4. Fees rose to 44% of total revenue this quarter, with both scale and quality of our fee mix, driving high returns, stable earnings and enduring relationships. Fee growth has steadily accelerated, and this is an important priority for us. While fee growth drives higher expenses, productivity initiatives helped improve our efficiency ratio and increase return on average assets.

John 將在開場發言中提供更多財務表現細節。請看投影片第 4 頁。本季手續費收入占總營收比重上升至 44%；我們手續費組合兼具規模與品質，帶來高報酬、穩定獲利與長久的客戶關係。手續費成長持續加速，這是我們的重要優先事項。雖然手續費成長會帶動費用上升，但生產力提升措施協助改善效率比率並提高平均資產報酬率。

Moving to slide 5. The successful completion of the BTIG acquisition marks a significant milestone in our strategic build-out of capital markets. In its first month as part of US Bancorp, BTIG generated approximately $98 million of revenue, marking the strongest monthly revenue performance in BTIG's history and outpacing our earlier expectations from the deal. As integration progresses, we expect to capture more long-term strategic benefits of the combination.

請看投影片第 5 頁。成功完成對 BTIG 的收購，標誌著我們在資本市場策略布局上的重要里程碑。BTIG 成為美國合眾銀行一部分的首月，即創造約 9,800 萬美元營收，為 BTIG 歷史上最強單月營收表現，並超出我們先前對本交易的預期。隨著整合推進，我們預期將取得更多此一結合的長期策略效益。

Our aim is to grow capital markets to more than 10% of total company revenue over time. On slide 6, our payments franchise remains an important source of diversification and client engagement across the company. Total Payment Services revenue increased 5.7% year over year compared with 4.7% growth in the prior year quarter. While merchant processing growth slowed during the quarter, card issuing continued to perform well and corporate payments saw a strong rebound driven by core demand and new business installations. We are increasingly managing these products holistically at the client segment level and investing to be competitive as this space evolves.

我們的目標是隨時間推進，使資本市場業務占公司總營收比重提升至 10% 以上。請看投影片第 6 頁，我們的支付業務仍是公司多元化與客戶互動的重要來源。支付服務（Payment Services）總營收年增 5.7%，高於去年同期的 4.7%。雖然本季商戶收單成長放緩，但發卡業務持續表現良好，企業支付則在核心需求與新客戶上線帶動下強勁反彈。我們愈來愈以客戶分群層級整體化管理這些產品，並持續投資以在此領域演進中保持競爭力。

Turning to slide 7. Our consumer franchise is a source of strength for the company and an important driver of long-term relationships and lower cost deposits. Given the increased interest we have seen in this space recently, we are spotlighting the strategy for the consumer franchise. We serve nearly 13 million consumers through a combination of digital and physical distribution with approximately 18% residing outside of our traditional branch footprint today. In addition, we serve approximately 7 million customers through our card, co-brand, Elan and partner platforms.

請看投影片第 7 頁。我們的消費金融業務是公司的優勢來源，也是建立長期關係與取得低成本存款的重要驅動力。鑑於近期市場對此領域的關注提升，我們特別聚焦說明消費金融業務策略。我們透過數位與實體通路的組合服務近 1,300 萬名消費者，其中約 18% 目前居住在我們傳統分行覆蓋範圍之外。此外，我們也透過信用卡、聯名卡、Elan 以及合作夥伴平台服務約 700 萬名客戶。

Our core products benefit greatly from this expanded scale. 42% of our consumer clients are now multiservice, up approximately 2 percentage points over the past two years. These relationships are more durable, generate higher return and strengthen engagement over our franchise. Slide 8 highlights the core strategies of our consumer franchise. We are seeing strong momentum from differentiated offerings like Bank Smartly, which we introduced in 2024.

我們的核心產品因這種擴大規模而大幅受益。目前 42% 的消費者客戶為多元服務客戶，較過去兩年提升約 2 個百分點。這些關係更具韌性、帶來更高報酬，並強化我們整體通路的客戶黏著度。投影片第 8 頁重點呈現我們消費金融業務的核心策略。我們看到差異化產品（如 2024 年推出的 Bank Smartly）帶來強勁動能。

The balances across Bank Smartly checking and savings now exceed $84 billion. We have more recently introduced a similar interconnected product suite for small business called Business Essentials. Our branch expansion is focused on densifying our presence in approximately 10 markets within our footprint that have high rates of household formation. We expect our annual investment in branches to increase from approximately $200 million historically to $300 million annually. Importantly, these strategies are delivering strong results and have now driven a third consecutive quarter of record consumer deposits.

Bank Smartly 支票與儲蓄的合計餘額目前已超過 840 億美元。我們近期也為小型企業推出類似的互聯產品組合，名為 Business Essentials。我們的分行擴張聚焦於在既有版圖內約 10 個家庭形成率較高的市場，加密我們的據點密度。我們預期每年對分行的投資將由過去約 2 億美元提高至每年 3 億美元。重要的是，這些策略正帶來強勁成果，並已推動消費者存款連續第三季創下新高。

Let me now turn the call over to John.

現在我把電話會議交給 John。

Thanks, Gunjan, and good morning, everyone. This was another strong quarter for us as we continue to execute against our strategic priorities. We delivered meaningful revenue and fee growth, significant positive operating leverage and improved profitability metrics that are well within our medium-term target ranges. If you turn to slide 9, I'll start with some highlights, followed by a discussion of trends for the second quarter. We reported earnings per common share of $1.35 and generated record net revenue of $7.7 billion, representing 10.1% growth year over year.

謝謝你，Gunjan，各位早安。在我們持續落實策略優先事項之際，本季再次展現強勁表現。我們實現了具意義的營收與手續費成長、顯著的正向營運槓桿，並改善獲利指標，且均落在我們中期目標區間之內。請翻到投影片第 9 頁，我將先說明幾項重點，接著討論第二季的趨勢。我們普通股每股盈餘為 1.35 美元，淨營收創下 77 億美元新高，年增 10.1%。

This quarter, we continue to see strong loan growth in areas like C&I, commercial real estate and card, reflecting steady client activity across the franchise. Meanwhile, fee income growth accelerated across most line items. Notably, this includes one month of BTIG. Our fee growth was still approximately 10% excluding BTIG. Average total assets increased 0.9% linked quarter to $695 billion.

本季我們在商業與工業貸款（C&I）、商用不動產與信用卡等領域持續看到強勁的放款成長，反映整體通路的客戶活動穩健。同時，手續費收入在多數項目上加速成長。值得注意的是，其中包含 BTIG 的一個月貢獻。若排除 BTIG，我們的手續費成長仍約為 10%。平均總資產較前一季增加 0.9%，至 6,950 億美元。

Key credit quality metrics improved both sequentially and year over year, reflecting a stable economic backdrop and the continued fortitude of our clients. As of June 30, our tangible book value per common share eclipsed $30 and increased more than 13% on a year-over-year basis. Slide 10 provides our key performance metrics. ROA, ROTCE, efficiency ratio and NIM all improved both sequentially and year over year as a result of a disciplined execution. We delivered strong returns, which includes a return on tangible common equity of 18.7% and a return on average assets of 1.26%.

主要信用品質指標無論較前一季或較去年同期皆有所改善，反映經濟環境穩定以及客戶持續展現韌性。截至 6 月 30 日，我們每股普通股有形帳面價值突破 30 美元，年增逾 13%。投影片第 10 頁提供我們的關鍵績效指標。在紀律執行下，ROA、ROTCE、效率比率與淨利差（NIM）皆較前一季及去年同期改善。我們交出強勁報酬，包括有形普通股權益報酬率 18.7%，以及平均資產報酬率 1.26%。

The efficiency ratio improved to 57.1%. Slide 11 provides a balance sheet summary. Total average deposits grew 2.4% year over year and were flat linked quarter. Consumer deposits reached another record this quarter driven by our Bank Smartly flagship product. The offset was typical seasonality in our wholesale and investment services businesses.

效率比率改善至 57.1%。投影片第 11 頁提供資產負債表摘要。平均總存款年增 2.4%，較前一季持平。在 Bank Smartly 旗艦產品帶動下，本季消費者存款再創新高。抵銷因素則是我們批發與投資服務業務的典型季節性波動。

Average loans totaled $405 billion up 7.1% from the prior year quarter and 3.0% from the prior quarter. Growth was broad-based in strategic categories, such as C&I, credit card and commercial real estate which brings ancillary fees with them. Turning to slide 12. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $4.4 billion, an increase of 7.5% on a year-over-year basis, above the range we had previously guided to, driven by stronger loan dynamics during the quarter. On a sequential basis, net interest income increased by $96 million or 2.2%, driven by loan growth, recent investment portfolio repositioning and ongoing benefits from fixed asset repricing.

平均貸款總額為4,050億美元，較去年同期成長7.1%，較前一季成長3.0%。成長在策略性類別中呈現廣泛分布，例如C&I、信用卡與商用不動產，且這些業務同時帶來附帶費用收入。接著看第12頁投影片。以完全應稅等值（FTE）基礎計算的淨利息收入合計44億美元，年增7.5%，高於我們先前給出的指引區間，主要受本季更強勁的放款動能所帶動。按季比較，淨利息收入增加9,600萬美元（或2.2%），主要由貸款成長、近期投資組合重新配置，以及固定資產重定價帶來的持續效益所驅動。

Net interest margin improved 2 basis points sequentially to 2.79%. Slide 13 highlights fee revenue trends within noninterest income. Total fee revenue accelerated during the quarter, reflecting broad-based strength across our businesses. Total fee income increased 13.2% year over year driven by strong performance in capital markets, trust and investment management, payments and other institutional fee businesses. In June, BTIG contributed approximately $98 million of capital markets fee revenue.

淨利差按季改善2個基點至2.79%。第13頁投影片重點呈現非利息收入中的手續費收入趨勢。本季手續費收入增速加快，反映我們各項業務普遍走強。手續費收入總額年增13.2%，主要由資本市場、信託與投資管理、支付，以及其他機構型手續費業務的強勁表現所帶動。6月，BTIG貢獻約9,800萬美元的資本市場手續費收入。

Excluding BTIG, fee revenue grew 9.9% year over year. Capital Markets revenue, excluding BTIG, increased approximately 31% year over year, reflecting strong client activity across foreign exchange, syndications and corporate bond underwriting. Moving to slide 14. Noninterest expense totaled approximately $4.4 billion and included approximately $84 million related to BTIG. Excluding BTIG, expenses grew roughly 1.9% sequentially and 3.9% versus the prior year.

若排除BTIG，手續費收入年增9.9%。資本市場收入（排除BTIG）年增約31%，反映客戶在外匯、承銷團（syndications）及公司債承銷等方面活動強勁。接著看第14頁投影片。非利息費用合計約44億美元，其中約8,400萬美元與BTIG相關。若排除BTIG，費用按季約成長1.9%，較去年同期成長3.9%。

The increase in core expense primarily reflected continued investments in technology and marketing, as well as higher incentive compensations associated with this quarter's strong revenue performance. These increases were partially offset by ongoing expense discipline across the franchise. Turning to slide 15. This quarter highlights our ability to improve profitability while continuing to grow the franchise. Over the past several quarters, we have meaningfully improved profitability, significantly reducing our efficiency ratio from its recent peak.

核心費用增加主要反映我們持續在科技與行銷方面的投資，以及與本季強勁營收表現相關的較高激勵性薪酬。上述增加部分被全行持續的費用控管所抵銷。接著看第15頁投影片。本季凸顯我們在持續擴大業務版圖的同時，仍能提升獲利能力。過去幾季，我們已顯著改善獲利能力，並將效率比率自近期高點大幅降低。

We remain committed to meaningful positive operating leverage as we fully integrate and normalize BTIG. While disciplined expense management remains an important contributor, we are increasingly seeing revenue growth become a larger driver of earnings growth. That combination of improving top-line momentum and ongoing expense discipline resulted in a year-over-year EPS growth of more than 20% this quarter. We remain confident in our ability to sustain strong profitability while continuing to invest for future growth. Slide 16 highlights our credit quality performance, which continues to improve.

我們仍致力於在全面整合並使BTIG營運常態化的過程中，實現具意義的正向營運槓桿。雖然嚴謹的費用管理仍是重要貢獻因素，但我們愈來愈看到營收成長成為獲利成長更大的驅動力。改善的營收動能與持續的費用紀律相結合，使本季每股盈餘（EPS）年增超過20%。我們仍有信心在持續投資未來成長的同時，維持強勁的獲利能力。第16頁投影片重點呈現我們的資產品質表現，且仍在持續改善。

Our ratio of nonperforming assets to loans and other real estate of 0.33% improved 5 basis points from the previous quarter and 11 basis points from a year ago. The second quarter net charge-off ratio was 0.53%, decreasing 3 basis points sequentially. Meanwhile, our allowance for credit losses remained steady at $8 billion or 1.94% of period-end loans. Turning to slide 17. As of June 30, our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio was 10.8% or 9.4%, including AOCI.

不良資產占貸款及其他不動產比率為0.33%，較前一季改善5個基點，較一年前改善11個基點。第二季淨沖銷率為0.53%，按季下降3個基點。同時，我們的信用損失準備金維持穩定，為80億美元，約占期末貸款的1.94%。接著看第17頁投影片。截至6月30日，我們的普通股權第一級資本比率（CET1）為10.8%；若包含AOCI則為9.4%。

Strong earnings generation this quarter supported capital distributions, strong loan growth and 12 basis points of impact from the BTIG acquisition this quarter. On slide 18, we provide a comparison of our second quarter results to our previous guidance, provide third quarter guidance and update our full year 2026 outlook. Excluding BTIG, second quarter net interest income and fee revenue exceeded previous guidance while noninterest expense came in as expected. Turning to forward-looking guidance for the third quarter and full year 2026, both of which are inclusive of BTIG and recently announced partnerships. For the third quarter, we expect net interest income growth of 4% to 6% on a fully taxable equivalent basis compared to the third quarter of 2025.

本季強勁的獲利創造能力支持了資本回饋、強勁的貸款成長，以及本季BTIG收購帶來的12個基點影響。在第18頁投影片中，我們將第二季結果與先前指引進行比較，提供第三季指引，並更新2026全年展望。若排除BTIG，第二季淨利息收入與手續費收入均高於先前指引，而非利息費用符合預期。接著說明第三季與2026全年之前瞻性指引，兩者皆已納入BTIG及近期宣布的合作夥伴關係。就第三季而言，我們預期以完全應稅等值（FTE）基礎計算的淨利息收入，較2025年第三季成長4%至6%。

Total fee revenue growth in the range of 12% to 14% compared to the third quarter of 2025 with contribution from BTIG of roughly $200 million per quarter in the back half of the year, noninterest expense growth of approximately 8% compared to the third quarter of 2025. Excluding BTIG, we would expect our core expense growth to be approximately 3.5%. Additionally, we expect to recognize approximately $160 million of reserve build related to the Amazon Small Business portfolio purchase, which we anticipate will close in mid-August. For the full year 2026, we now expect total net revenue growth of 7% to 9% compared to the prior year or in the range of 5% to 7%, excluding BTIG, up from our prior range of 4% to 6%. We expect to deliver approximately 200 basis points of positive operating leverage this year and more than 300 basis points, excluding the impact from BTIG.

手續費收入總額預期較2025年第三季成長12%至14%；其中BTIG在下半年每季約貢獻2億美元；非利息費用預期較2025年第三季成長約8%。若排除BTIG，我們預期核心費用成長約為3.5%。此外，我們預期就收購Amazon Small Business投資組合相關，認列約1.6億美元的準備金增加；該交易預計於8月中旬完成交割。就2026全年而言，我們目前預期總淨營收較前一年成長7%至9%；若排除BTIG，則為5%至7%，高於先前4%至6%的區間。我們預期今年可實現約200個基點的正向營運槓桿；若排除BTIG影響，則超過300個基點。

Moving to slide 19. Second quarter results represented another consecutive quarter operating within all of our medium-term target ranges. We are encouraged by the momentum across the franchise and remain confident in our ability to continue to build on these results to deliver consistent, sustainable returns over time. Let me now hand it back to Gunjan for closing remarks.

接著看第19頁投影片。第二季結果代表我們連續又一季在所有中期目標區間內運行。我們對整體業務版圖的動能感到鼓舞，並仍有信心能在此基礎上持續精進，隨時間推進提供一致且可持續的報酬。接下來我把時間交回Gunjan做結語。

Thank you, John. As we look ahead, our focus remains on sustaining the strong return profile of the company while accelerating growth with resilient fundamentals strong execution momentum and an increasingly interconnected franchise, we believe we are well positioned for the next phase of profitable growth and long-term value creation. With that, we will now open the call for your questions.

謝謝你，John。展望未來，我們的重點仍是維持公司強勁的報酬特性，同時憑藉具韌性的基本面、強勁的執行動能，以及日益互聯的業務版圖來加速成長；我們相信已為下一階段的獲利成長與長期價值創造做好充分準備。接下來，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Erika Najarian, UBS Financial.

(接線員指示) Erika Najarian，瑞銀金融（UBS Financial）。

Gunjan and John, fully appreciate the revenue upgrade. I'm wondering if you could unpack maybe the path from 4% to 6% to 5% to 7% and perhaps separate the discussion with regards to the net interest income trajectory, particularly how you're viewing net interest margin from here with deposit costs coming up a little bit in the quarter. So I'm going to pause there because that's already a lot.

Gunjan和John，我完全理解你們上調營收指引。我想請你們拆解一下，從4%到6%到5%到7%的路徑，並且或許可以把討論分開，談談淨利息收入的走勢，特別是本季存款成本略有上升的情況下，你們接下來如何看待淨利差。我先停在這裡，因為這已經很多了。

Sure. Erika, thanks for the question. Let me just start, we do expect, as I mentioned, the full year revenue guide to go up to 7% to 9% or 5% to 7% excluding BTIG, which is better than where we started the year when we mentioned 4% to 6%. And that just reflects a lot of broad-based growth that we just commented on in our opening comments there. You mentioned net interest income.

好的。Erika，謝謝你的提問。我先從這裡開始：如我提到的，我們預期全年營收指引上調至7%到9%，或若排除BTIG則為5%到7%，這比年初我們提到的4%到6%要好。這反映了我們在開場評論中提到的多項業務廣泛成長。你提到了淨利息收入。

And maybe just to talk through that a bit. We've started the year expecting mid-single digits I would continue to expect mid-single digits on net interest income. Just given the momentum that we've had in the first half of the year, I would just say that we expect to be north of 5% for the full year. But obviously, a lot can happen. I think in terms of net interest income and net interest margin, in particular, we do expect that to grow over the course of the year, and that's reflected in the guide.

也許我再進一步說明一下。我們年初預期淨利息收入為中個位數成長，我仍會維持對淨利息收入中個位數成長的預期。鑑於上半年所展現的動能，我會說我們預期全年將高於5%。但顯然，仍可能發生很多變化。我認為就淨利息收入與淨利差而言，特別是淨利差，我們確實預期其在今年過程中會逐步上升，這也反映在指引之中。

And the deposits, we think that, that's -- that nothing's really changed on that front from a competitive nature standpoint. So we still feel really good about where we're moving here.

至於存款，我們認為從競爭態勢的角度來看，那一端其實沒有什麼真正的改變。所以我們對目前推進的方向仍然感覺非常好。

And just as a follow-up, I've already fielded investor questions on positive operating leverage. It feel socially to even ask this, but I've been guiding asked about this quickly 200 versus the 200 plus. And -- but anyway, I guess, like just to frame it for us, from your prepared remarks, it sounds like the fee generation ex BTIG is better, right? And clearly, that comes with it higher expenses. And also, it seems like consensus has to frame BTIG with that higher efficiency ratio.

另外作為追問，我已經收到投資人對「正向營運槓桿」的提問。坦白說連問這個都覺得有點社交上不太好意思，但我一直被要求很快地釐清這個 200 相對於 200 以上的差異。不過無論如何，我想就我們的理解來框架一下：從你們事先準備的談話來看，扣除 BTIG 之後的費用收入生成是更好的，對嗎？而且很明顯，這也會伴隨更高的費用支出。另外，看起來市場共識也必須把 BTIG 以較高的效率比率來納入評估。

So I guess like is that a fair read of how positive operating leverage is tracking because fees are driving the upside and thereby, that comes with it with expenses. And further, just sorry to sort of slip another one in, the $98 million in a month is clearly better than the $200 million, given the ECM sort of large assets happening in the industry, do you expect the pacing of BTIG contribution to be closer to $300 million this year.

所以我想問，這樣解讀正向營運槓桿的走勢是否合理：因為費用收入帶動上行，因此也會伴隨費用支出。再者，不好意思再插問一題：一個月 9,800 萬美元顯然比 2 億美元更好；考量到產業內 ECM（股權資本市場）一些大型案子正在發生，你們是否預期今年 BTIG 的貢獻節奏會更接近 3 億美元？

Sure. Sure, a lot to unpack there, but I think maybe I'll start on the you talked about positive operating leverage just to start. And I would say that we're firmly committed to positive operating leverage. That is something we have been said repeatedly since the Investor Day back in 2024. We've obviously have been focusing more and more on fees, and you see that in the guide.

當然。這裡面要拆解的點很多，但我想我先從你提到的正向營運槓桿開始。我會說，我們對正向營運槓桿的承諾非常堅定。這是我們自 2024 年投資人日以來反覆強調的事項。我們顯然越來越聚焦在費用收入上，你也可以在指引中看到。

We do expect our fees overall to be low teens from a full year perspective. and just likely over 4 points of that is going to be on the BTIG side of the equation. I think in terms of this quickly line, as you call it, versus the 300 basis points or more signal. With BTIG, within that $200 million that we anticipate per quarter, we assume a 15% contribution margin. There's also about $60 million of integration costs that will likely come in that's embedded in that we'll call out, obviously, as we move forward.

我們預期以全年角度來看，整體費用收入將是低十位數百分比成長；其中大約超過 4 個百分點會來自 BTIG 這一端。至於你所說的這條「很快的」線（quickly line），相對於 300 個基點或以上的訊號。就 BTIG 而言，在我們預期每季 2 億美元的範圍內，我們假設其貢獻毛利率（contribution margin）為 15%。另外還有約 6,000 萬美元的整合成本，可能會發生並已內嵌在其中；我們在後續推進時也會明確揭露。

But we're firmly positioned for positive operating leverage. And I think from a BTIG perspective, we're really excited about that acquisition and the new team that we have there. And -- but we do expect the contribution margin to improve over time.

但我們在正向營運槓桿方面的定位非常明確。而從 BTIG 的角度來看，我們對這項收購以及那邊的新團隊感到非常興奮。不過我們也確實預期其貢獻毛利率會隨時間改善。

I'd just add, Erika, that we are very comfortable with our expense and productivity runway on our programs. And like John said, very committed to a healthy positive operating leverage on the core. Just a reminder here that between BTIG and the Amazon deal, we're installing more than $1 billion of run rate revenue over a very short period of time, and there's a fair amount of onetime cost that we are absorbing within the 300-plus DOL as well. So just a reassurance that we are both committed to it and very confident in our plans there.

Erika，我補充一下：我們對各項計畫在費用支出與生產力提升方面的可持續空間（runway）非常有信心。而且如 John 所說，我們對核心業務維持健康的正向營運槓桿非常堅定。提醒一下，BTIG 與 Amazon 這筆合作之間，我們在非常短的期間內將新增超過 10 億美元的年化（run rate）營收；同時，我們也在 300 以上的 DOL 中吸收了相當多的一次性成本。所以再次強調，我們不僅承諾如此，也對相關計畫非常有信心。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

John Pancari，Evercore ISI。

You've put up some good numbers on the fee side, and you've acknowledged that the growth has steadily accelerated and we certainly saw upside this quarter in card and corporate payments. And I know in Corporate Payments, you acknowledged the rebound that you're seeing. Can you maybe just give us a little bit more color, given this, what is that growth rate that you believe is likely for the overall fee component, but for the year, but also maybe can you talk through what are you seeing as the greatest drivers of this accelerating growth in the fee trend that has materialized and that you expect to continue to play out? What are the biggest contributors?

你們在費用收入端交出了一些不錯的數字，也提到成長正在穩步加速；而且本季我們確實看到卡片與企業支付（corporate payments）有上行驚喜。我知道你們在企業支付方面也提到正在看到復甦。能否請你再多提供一些背景：在此情況下，你們認為今年整體費用收入組成的成長率大概會是多少？另外，也能否談談你們看到推動費用趨勢加速成長、且你們預期會持續發酵的最大驅動因素是什麼？最大的貢獻來源有哪些？

Yes, sure. So I think, John, thanks. The biggest drivers, and we've seen a nice turn on the corporate payment side, you called that out. I think we've alluded to this at the beginning of the year, we mentioned that there has -- we see a lot of one but not yet installed business, and that is certainly the case here. We're experiencing that.

好的，當然可以。John，謝謝。最大的驅動因素之一是企業支付端出現了很好的轉折，你也點到了。我想我們在年初就提過：我們看到很多「已簽但尚未上線」的業務，而這裡確實就是這種情況。我們正在經歷這個過程。

And so we have a lot of what used to be headwinds in this business last -- this year at this time are now tailwinds. And so I think that along with the new business is helping. And I would say then on the card side, we're also saying the same thing. We've been seeing a lot of great account growth. The fee revenue has been steadily increasing.

因此，去年這個時候在這項業務上原本是逆風的因素，今年此時已經轉為順風。我認為這點再加上新業務的導入，正在提供助力。至於卡片端，我們也看到同樣的情況。我們看到很多很好的帳戶成長。費用收入一直在穩步增加。

We're going to get the Amazon book loaded here in mid-August, we anticipate. And so we think there's just a lot of momentum on the fee side of the equation there.

我們預期會在 8 月中旬把 Amazon 的業務組合（book）上線導入。所以我們認為在費用收入這一端有相當多的動能。

John, I'll add. This is a very important part of our strategy. It's a defining feature of our banking franchise. We closed -- this quarter, we were at 44% fee revenue. That gives us enormous stability, both of earnings and depth in our relationship.

John，我補充一下。這是我們策略中非常重要的一部分。這也是我們銀行業務特許經營（franchise）的定義性特徵。本季結束時，我們的費用收入占比為 44%。這為我們的獲利帶來極大的穩定性，也加深了我們的客戶關係深度。

And we are building this four-legged stool of fees, which are very well diversified. So it's the capital markets that's become very significant now. The payments franchise, which was always great trust and investment franchise has grown very nicely for us and has lots of tailwinds right now with the capital markets and then the traditional consumer fees. So we expect that the fee complex overall will outpace our NII, at least in the long-term, very, very healthy growth across the board on all three categories. And by design and strategy, we're very focused on that part of the business.

我們正在打造一個「四腳凳」式的費用收入結構，而且分散度非常好。因此，資本市場業務如今已變得非常重要。支付業務特許經營也一直很強；信託與投資服務業務對我們而言成長得非常好，且在資本市場帶動下目前也有很多順風；再加上傳統的消費者費用收入。因此我們預期，整體費用收入組合（fee complex）將會超越我們的 NII（淨利息收入）成長，至少在長期是如此；三大類別都呈現非常、非常健康的全面性成長。而且依照設計與策略，我們非常聚焦在這一塊業務。

So based on that, Gunjan, how would you characterize the year-over-year growth expectation on the fee side? Yes, I know you said it should outpace but any way you can help us with that.

那基於這點，Gunjan，你會如何描述費用收入端的年對年成長預期？我知道你說會跑贏，但你能否用任何方式再幫我們量化一下？

Sure. Yes. I mean we expect full year low teens on the fee side of the equation. And that's going to include about 4 points -- a little over 4 points will be BTIG driven. And again, that's we assume $200 million per quarter in the back half of the year.

當然。是的。我的意思是，我們預期全年在費用收入端會是低十位數百分比成長。其中大約 4 個百分點——略高於 4 個百分點——將由 BTIG 驅動。而且再次強調，我們假設下半年每季 2 億美元。

and then inclusive, obviously, of the $100 million that they did in June. So that's going to be -- that's kind of how we think about it. And as Gunjan said, it's strengthened the capital markets, investment services and payments that are really going to drive it.

並且當然也包含他們在 6 月做出的 1 億美元。所以這會是——這大致就是我們的思考方式。而如 Gunjan 所說，將由資本市場、投資服務與支付業務的強勁表現來驅動。

Yes. I know you gave that line detail before, but -- and then lastly, just around loan to be in, I wanted to see if you can give us a bit more detail on what you're seeing there as trends came in pretty sold for the quarter.

是的。我知道你之前已經提供過那條線的細節，不過——最後再問一下關於貸款的部分，我想看看你能否再多給一些細節；因為本季的趨勢看起來相當穩健。

On loans, Sure. Yes. So on loan growth, a very strong quarter for us. The pipelines continue to look very good, particularly on the commercial and commercial real estate side. Commercial real estate saw some nice uptick.

關於貸款，當然。是的。就貸款成長而言，這一季對我們來說非常強勁。案源管線（pipelines）持續看起來非常好，特別是在商業貸款與商用不動產（commercial real estate）方面。商用不動產也看到一些不錯的回升。

This quarter, we continue to see that improve. And it's in virtually all the categories that we talked about last quarter. It's -- there's a -- pretty much every category in the commercial side is green from a growth standpoint. Everything from large corporates down to small business and SBA loans and things of that variety. So I know we talked about mid-single-digit growth last time at this time, but we anticipate to be through that.

本季我們持續看到這方面有所改善。而且幾乎涵蓋了我們上季談到的所有類別。也就是說——商業端幾乎每一個類別從成長角度來看都是綠燈。從大型企業一路到小型企業、SBA 貸款以及諸如此類的項目。所以我知道上次這個時候我們談到的是中個位數成長，但我們預期會超過那個水準。

And then, of course, we have the Amazon the $1.6 billion that we -- as I mentioned, that will come online in the April time frame -- August time frame, excuse me.

然後，當然，我們還有亞馬遜那筆 16 億美元——如我提到的——將會在 4 月左右上線——抱歉，是 8 月左右。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

John McDonald，Truist Securities。

Could you give us some color, John, on what you saw in terms of deposit trends this quarter and how you're thinking about the back half of the year in terms of deposit growth, costs and mix?

John，你能否就本季你所看到的存款趨勢提供一些細節，以及你如何看待下半年在存款成長、成本與結構（mix）方面的走勢？

Sure. So maybe just to start with the quarter. This is a pretty typical second quarter for us, I would say, over long periods of time. On the commercial side, we always see seasonal outflow, and that's a reflection of just the tax seasonality. And so we anticipated that we would be have lower balances on the commercial side.

當然。那我先從本季談起。我會說，對我們而言，這是一個相當典型的第二季，長期以來都是如此。在商業端，我們總是會看到季節性的資金流出，這反映的就是稅務季節性。因此我們原本就預期商業端的餘額會較低。

We did see nice growth on the consumer side, and that's by design. We've been very much focused on growing our consumer deposits. As I look ahead, clearly, we've already -- as we look at the trends here, starting in the third quarter, we've already made good progress on deposit growth. A lot of that just comes back over the course of late second quarter and into third for us. So I would expect, as loan growth continues to go, deposit growth will grow with some sort of parity there.

我們確實看到消費端有不錯的成長，而這是刻意為之。我們一直非常專注於擴大消費者存款。展望未來，顯然——從第三季開始的趨勢來看——我們在存款成長上已經取得了良好進展。其中很大一部分對我們而言會在第二季後段到第三季期間回流。因此我預期，隨著放款成長持續推進，存款成長也會以某種程度的同步性跟上。

And so -- and then I think from a deposit rate standpoint, I think you mentioned that as well, were up a couple of basis points this quarter. In terms of how we're looking at it going forward, that rate is going to be dependent on just how strong loan growth is. I think the stronger the loan growth is potential rates might go up on that deposit side, we just anticipate some of that in our guidance as well. So those are kind of the puts and takes right now as I think about deposits.

另外——我想你也提到了存款利率的部分——本季我們上升了幾個基點。至於未來怎麼看，利率將取決於放款成長有多強。我認為放款成長越強，存款端的利率可能就會上升；我們在指引中也預期會反映其中一部分。所以就存款而言，目前大致就是這些拉鋸因素。

Okay. And then just following up on that, could you remind us of the broader drivers of the NIM expansion story and your thoughts on getting into that 3% range next year that you've talked about on the NIM?

了解。那再追問一下，你能否提醒我們推動淨利差（NIM）擴張的更廣泛驅動因素，以及你對於明年如你先前所談、NIM 進入 3% 區間的看法？

Yes. Sure, absolutely. We continue to see a path on the 3% journey here at some point in 2027. Not much has changed really since I think the last time we talked here some time ago, it was good to see the NIM go up this quarter. We expect that to continue to progress.

可以。當然。我們仍然看到在 2027 年某個時間點走到 3% 的路徑。自從上次我們談到這個議題以來，其實沒有太多改變；本季看到 NIM 上升是件好事。我們預期這個趨勢會持續推進。

the positives, of course, are going to be on the asset mix side as well as just the continual fixed repricing. I think, John, what it's going to come down to in terms of the speed in which we go that way is going to be on the deposit side of the equation, as I just mentioned, some points there. but also the slope of the curve. Obviously, there's some talk of rate hikes and things like that. And the hikes in of themselves are not consequential.

正面因素當然包括資產結構（asset mix），以及持續的固定利率重訂價（fixed repricing）。John，我認為最終決定我們往那個方向前進速度的，會是存款端的因素——如我剛才提到的幾點——以及殖利率曲線的斜率。顯然市場也在談升息之類的事情。而升息本身並不是關鍵。

It's more what's the shape of the curve after that, and that's what we're going to be focused on as we move forward.

更重要的是升息之後曲線的形狀，而這將是我們接下來關注的重點。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

I guess maybe one just big picture question on slide 19. When you look at your returns for the second quarter and for the first half, like ROE, ROTCE, or in the midpoint of the guidance. Maybe just talk to us, I mean, obviously, all banks want to use a strong revenue backdrop to invest in the business. When you think about just -- we can pick on the return on assets at 1.26, in the higher end of the guidance, 1.35. Like how do you think about it? Do you think this should move towards that 1.35? Or are you happy operating at this midpoint?

我想先問一個比較宏觀的問題，關於第 19 頁投影片。當你看第二季以及上半年的報酬表現，例如 ROE、ROTCE，或是落在指引中點附近。也許請你談談：顯然所有銀行都希望在營收背景強勁時投資業務。以資產報酬率（ROA）1.26 為例，指引高端是 1.35。你怎麼看待這件事？你認為應該往 1.35 靠攏嗎？還是你們對於在中點水準運作也感到滿意？

Ebrahim, thank you. We're -- first of all, we're pleased with where we're at this part of the journey. It's good to see that we're well established in our medium-term targets that we had talked to you about back in 2024. Yes, of course, our hope and expectation is to continue to improve. I mean that's where we want to go as to the -- we started at the beginning of the year or late last year, actually at the lower end of the range, not just ROA, but some of these other metrics as well. And we want to -- our continual push is to continue to improve these metrics as we progress.

Ebrahim，謝謝。首先，我們對於目前在這段旅程中的位置感到滿意。很高興看到我們已經穩健地落在 2024 年與各位溝通過的中期目標範圍內。是的，當然，我們的希望與預期是持續改善。這就是我們想前進的方向——我們在年初或其實是去年底，是從區間的低端起步，不只是 ROA，其他一些指標也是如此。而我們持續推動的，就是在前進過程中不斷改善這些指標。

Ebrahim, we think about it in waves. We published these medium-term targets at Investor Day in 2024. So the first goal was to get into the ranges across the board. The metrics have been very thoughtfully selected to balance growth, productivity and returns, which is how we think about the metrics. The first think we made progress on this capital.

Ebrahim，我們是以「波段」的方式來看待。我們在 2024 年的投資人日公布了這些中期目標。所以第一個目標是讓各項指標全面進入區間。這些指標是經過深思熟慮挑選的，用來平衡成長、生產力與報酬，這也是我們看待指標的方式。第一個我們取得進展的是資本。

You'll remember, we were very low on capital coming out of the Union Bank acquisition. We are feeling very good about that, very ready for a Category 2 transition that's upcoming. Expenses is the next thing that we were able to very quickly make a difference on the fee revenue growth. And right now, we are very focused on NII expansion which will help the ROA. So broadly speaking, move towards the right on the ranges is the way we are managing the bank.

你會記得，在完成 Union Bank 併購後，我們的資本水位非常低。我們對目前的狀況感覺很好，也已經為即將到來的第二類別（Category 2）轉換做好準備。接下來我們能很快產生差異的是費用，以及手續費收入成長。而目前我們非常聚焦在淨利息收入（NII）擴張，這將有助於 ROA。因此整體而言，朝著區間右側推進，就是我們管理這家銀行的方式。

Got it. And maybe just on the capital front. Maybe if we can revisit in terms of timing. I mean, you've talked about wanting to get to a 10% adjusted CET1 before we see a ramp-up in buybacks. Is that still the case? And beyond that, are there additional BTIG out there in terms of small tuck-in deals that would make sense?

了解。那再談一下資本面。也許我們可以回到時間點的問題。你們曾提到希望在看到庫藏股回購加速之前，先達到 10% 的調整後 CET1。目前仍是如此嗎？此外，是否還有其他像 BTIG 那樣的小型補強式（tuck-in）交易機會，會是合理的？

I'll start with the capital question. I mean, yes, we've made tremendous progress over the last couple of years. We've grown capital over 30% just in those last two years, and we think we're on the last lap, certainly of capital build right now. Our first priority is going to be supporting loan growth. That's something that we clearly did this time along with BTIG, and so we're pleased to see our capital levels actually flat NIM making -- at the same time, making progress in our Category II.

我先回答資本的問題。是的，過去幾年我們取得了巨大的進展。僅在最近兩年，我們的資本就成長了超過 30%，而我們認為目前確實已經進入資本累積的最後一圈。我們的第一優先順序會是支持放款成長。這次我們很明確地做到了這點，同時也完成了 BTIG，因此我們很高興看到資本水位實際上持平；同時，NIM 也在改善，並且我們在第二類別（Category II）方面也持續取得進展。

And Ebrahim, I would say that we would anticipate to increase the buybacks and glide into that 70% to 75% range, which we're very committed to as we approach that 10% -- approximately that 10% level. So this quarter, we had $200 million of repurchases that was flat versus the prior quarter, but we had a lot of loan growth in the BTIG acquisition. So if we continue to see those sorts of opportunities, we'll pause for share repurchase or keep it at these particular levels, but we intend to glide up into that level.

Ebrahim，我會說，隨著我們接近那個10%——大約10%的水準，我們預期會提高回購，並逐步滑升到70%到75%的區間；我們對此非常堅定承諾。因此本季我們回購了2億美元，與前一季持平，但在BTIG收購案中我們的貸款成長很多。所以如果我們持續看到這類機會，我們會暫停股票回購或維持在目前這些水準，但我們的意圖是逐步提升到那個水準。

And Ebrahim, on your second question, are there other BTIG. We do look at a lot of smaller bolt-on deals, it would not be our expectation that we would need to do a bolt-on capital markets. BTIG brought equity trading and advisory businesses to complement our FICC business so we have a complete offering now. It's about 7% of our total revenue. That puts us roughly in line with our regional peers but there's a lot of headroom relative to G-SIBs.

Ebrahim，關於你的第二個問題，是否還有其他BTIG（類似的案子）。我們確實會看很多較小的補強型交易，但我們不預期需要再做一個補強型的資本市場收購。BTIG帶來了股票交易與顧問業務，以補足我們的FICC業務，因此我們現在有完整的產品提供。這約占我們總營收的7%。這讓我們大致與區域型同業一致，但相較於G-SIBs仍有很大的成長空間。

So we think we have a nice platform to grow organically and get to the 10% revenue, which would really give us sort of the right portfolio mix. But the broader question on the bolt-on, our thought process always is to create a very accretive, financially attractive way of creating localized scale in one or two of our products. And we do look at those. And again, I think of them very much as organic growth because these are sort of tuck-in deals. I hope that answers your question.

因此我們認為我們有一個很好的平台可以透過內生成長，並達到10%的營收占比，這將真正讓我們擁有合適的投資組合配置。但更廣泛來看，對於補強型交易，我們的思考流程一向是：以非常具增益性、財務上具吸引力的方式，在我們的一到兩項產品上建立在地化規模。我們確實會看這些機會。而且再說一次，我把它們很大程度視為內生成長，因為這些算是小型併入式交易。希望這回答了你的問題。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

Mike Mayo，富國銀行。

I think you -- I think the key phrase here is fee complex. You keep mentioning fees in many different ways. And what's the output of all your plans here? Like fees over 50% or up to 50%. And then as a component of that, how do you plan to get that capital markets number higher investing in legacy US Bancorp or BTIG relates to cards, in terms of -- by the way, is Amazon in the guide for the year and then corporate payments. So what's really the plan for fee, the complex as a whole? And how does that overlay with your existing business relationships?

我想你——我想這裡的關鍵詞是「費用複合體（fee complex）」。你一直以很多不同方式提到費用。那你們所有計畫的最終產出是什麼？例如費用占比超過50%或提升到50%？然後作為其中一部分，你們打算如何把資本市場的數字拉高——是投資於既有的US Bancorp，或是BTIG與卡片業務相關的投入；另外，順帶一提，Amazon是否已納入今年的指引，以及企業支付（corporate payments）。所以，整體而言，對於費用、這個複合體的計畫到底是什麼？以及它如何與你們既有的業務關係相互疊加？

Thank you, Mike. I do call it the fee complex don't tie because the quality and the mix is an important part of our. We don't want to be a single business-bank. And the four categories are very diversified with each other, and they are underpinned by some faster-growing markets. We would aspire to be in the higher 40s as a total percentage.

謝謝你，Mike。我確實稱之為費用複合體，因為品質與組合是我們很重要的一部分。我們不希望成為單一業務的銀行。這四大類彼此之間非常分散，且其背後有一些成長更快的市場作為支撐。我們的目標是總占比能達到40%後段（higher 40s）。

We were at 45% at one point. And if we can keep our efficiency ratio to the mid. So the 55%, 57% range and growth fees at that level, I think it makes for a very enduring franchise. And that's not just financially. We think about fees as the hooks that create enduring relationships that also bring high-quality deposits, both on the consumer side and the corporate side.

我們曾在某個時點達到45%。如果我們能把效率比率維持在中段——也就是55%、57%的區間，並讓費用收入在那個水準成長，我認為這會形成一個非常長青的特許經營。而且這不只是財務面。我們把費用視為建立長期關係的「鉤子」，也能帶來高品質存款，無論是消費端或企業端。

So the intent here is not just the business portfolio, but the consumer relationship being very deep and multiproduct. So the strategies are all anchored around each of those four big pillars, having enough nourishment and enough investments to grow alongside the bank. And I'll let John answer the questions on the outlook for CPS.

因此這裡的意圖不只是業務組合，還包括讓消費者關係非常深且多產品化。所以這些策略都圍繞著那四個大支柱，提供足夠的養分與投資，讓它們能與銀行一同成長。我讓John來回答關於CPS展望的問題。

Yes. I would just maybe add to that, Gunjan, we talk a lot about here, leveraging the balance sheet, the growth that we have either in the loan book, et cetera, to help with the fee categories, whether that is capital markets or investment services, that's why the fee complex is so important. We have a lot of different products that we can apply to clients that have balance sheet usage for us. And so we're really leveraging that component. And yes, the Amazon component is in the guide.

是的。我可能再補充一下，Gunjan，我們在這裡談很多的是如何運用資產負債表——我們在貸款組合等方面的成長——來帶動費用類別，不論是資本市場或投資服務，這也是為什麼費用複合體如此重要。我們有很多不同產品可以提供給那些會使用我們資產負債表的客戶。因此我們正大幅運用這個面向。而且是的，Amazon的部分已納入指引。

We talked about $75 million to $85 million of revenue that is -- a majority of that is in net interest income. So there will be some split between NII and fees on that. And then, of course, just as a reminder, we anticipate a $160 million reserve build that will occur with the closing that we anticipate to be mid-August.

我們提到有7,500萬到8,500萬美元的營收——其中大部分會反映在淨利息收入（NII）。因此在NII與費用之間會有一些分拆。另外，也提醒一下，我們預期在完成交割時會有1.6億美元的準備金提列增加（reserve build），我們預期交割時間在8月中旬。

And then as far as how you intend to go through 7% to 10% capital markets as a percentage of revenues. Is that -- would you be hiring more people through DTI? Or is it through legacy US Bancorp or other means? Or do you have to back your mind, maybe we'll find a small bolt-on?

那麼關於你們打算如何把資本市場占營收比從7%提升到10%。這會是透過DTI再多聘人嗎？還是透過既有的US Bancorp或其他方式？或者你們心裡也有想過，也許會找一個小型補強收購？

Well, thank you for that. Yes, you did ask that. We don't -- we are not anticipating small bolt-on needed to get to the 10-ish percent. This is organic growth from just leveraging the relationship and the product capabilities on both sides. What we are seeing, Mike, even in the first month, and we're just getting started here is balance sheet that is already being deployed has room to earn some fee revenue just from the relationships we have.

嗯，謝謝你提這個。是的，你確實問到了。我們不——我們不預期需要小型補強收購才能達到約10%的水準。這會是內生成長，透過在雙方既有的關係與產品能力上加以運用。Mike，我們看到的是，即使在第一個月——而我們才剛開始——已經投放出去的資產負債表仍有空間，僅透過我們既有的關係就能賺取一些費用收入。

BTIG is being invited in to the relationships we already have. So the organic growth does not really anticipate a massive expansion of head count or a massive it is cross-selling and getting a fair share of the fee revenue from the book from a balance sheet that has been deployed against the commercial side. So that's the plan. And we have some confidence that gets us to about 10% of the total revenue.

BTIG正被引入我們既有的客戶關係中。因此，內生成長並不真正需要大幅擴編人力；它更多是交叉銷售，並從已投放在商業端的資產負債表所對應的業務中，取得合理份額的費用收入。這就是計畫。而我們有一定信心，這能讓我們達到總營收約10%。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

Ken Usdin，Autonomous Research。

I was just wondering if I could just clean up a couple of the -- like these acquisition-related math thing. So first of all, I guess, on BTIG, you mentioned you've got the $60 million of restructuring, that's all in the second half. And will that be the end of it? So you see kind of like an improvement in the incremental margin post the end of the year as we go forward?

我只是想確認幾個——像是這些與收購相關的數學問題。首先，我想在BTIG方面，你提到有6,000萬美元的重整費用，這全部都在下半年。那這就結束了嗎？所以在年底之後往前看，你會看到增量利潤率在那之後有所改善嗎？

Yes, Ken, that's right. So $60 million is -- would be the -- just the merger-related items that we would anticipate this year. There will be a tail or so probably early '27. We'll update you as we progress. But yes, the contribution margin, we anticipate being the remainder of this year kind of 15% for this business, but we anticipate that to build out.

是的，Ken，沒錯。所以6,000萬美元——會是——我們預期今年的併購相關項目就是這些。之後可能還會有一些尾端影響，大概在27年初左右。我們會在推進過程中再向你更新。但沒錯，貢獻利潤率方面，我們預期今年剩餘期間這項業務大概是15%，但我們預期之後會逐步提升。

I have 20% in my head or how we're thinking about it right now and with hopeful room for improvement, but that's how we're progressing.

我目前腦中是20%左右，或我們現在的思考方向是這樣，並希望還有改善空間；但我們就是按這個方向在推進。

And on BTIG, so they just did a 300 run rate in June, as you mentioned, almost 100, but you're only building in 200 into the forward guide from here? Is there some -- was there something extraordinary? Obviously, second quarter wasn't ordinary for capital markets. I was just wondering, maybe you can just help us understand like what's the right run rate for that capital markets line once we kind of get to the right place and fully run rate type of thing?

另外在BTIG方面，如你提到的，他們在6月剛做到300的年化運行率（run rate），接近100，但你們在往前的指引裡只納入200？是否有一些——有什麼一次性因素？顯然第二季對資本市場來說並不尋常。我只是想請你們幫我們理解，一旦我們到達合適的位置、完全進入穩態運行率時，那條資本市場收入線的合理運行率應該是多少？

Yes. Well, a couple of things yet. Just to be clear, 200 per quarter is what we anticipate. I think there's some seasonality in the third and fourth -- they had a record month in June, a lot of transactions. Could it go higher than 200, it could.

是的。嗯，還有幾件事。先說清楚，我們預期每季是 2 億。我認為第三季和第四季有一些季節性——他們在 6 月有創紀錄的月份，交易量很大。會不會高於 2 億？有可能。

But capital markets fees can swing and things of that nature. So we'll see how that goes. Going back, I would just point back to Gunjan's comments you just made on -- or 7% of revenue right now anticipating to get to 10%. I think that's the right trajectory. We expect strong growth.

但資本市場手續費可能會波動，諸如此類。所以我們再看看進展。回到前面，我只想呼應你剛才提到 Gunjan 的評論——目前約占營收 7%，預期會到 10%。我認為那是正確的軌跡。我們預期會有強勁成長。

I mean this -- organically, the capital markets grew 30%, both first and second quarter. I don't know -- I don't anticipate being that strong in the back half of the year, but it's still going to be strong. And based on everything we see and based on the new business and all the different pieces that we've been building on our legacy products, not to mention the BTIG synergies that we anticipate. So that's what gives us all that positivity and momentum that we think for this business.

我的意思是——就有機成長而言，資本市場在第一季和第二季都成長了 30%。我不知道——我不預期下半年還會那麼強，但仍會很強。而且基於我們看到的一切、基於新業務，以及我們在既有產品上持續打造的各個環節，更不用說我們預期的 BTIG 協同效益。所以這些就是讓我們對這項業務充滿正向看法與動能的原因。

Okay. And then the third one, thanks for mentioning the 75, 85 on Amazon. Just want to make clear again, that's an annualized number? And would you expect that to be fully run rated in the fourth quarter?

好的。第三點，謝謝你提到 Amazon 的 7,500 萬到 8,500 萬。我想再確認一次，那是年化數字嗎？你預期第四季會完全反映在 run-rate 上嗎？

Yes, that's a per quarter number, and that would be then -- so we would anticipate getting approximately half of that for the third quarter, and then that would be fully in for the fourth quarter.

是的，那是每季的數字；因此——我們預期第三季大約取得其中一半，然後第四季就會完全到位。

Okay. So that's a quarterly enough. So more like 300-ish on an annual perspective.

好的。所以那是每季的量。所以以年度角度看，大概是 3 億左右。

Yes, that's right. So back to link all these things together, Gunjan mentioned adding $1 billion. So if we think about $200 million per quarter and 75, 85 for Amazon, that's going to be north of $1 billion for revenues that we're installing based on these acquisitions, which we're excited about.

是的，沒錯。所以把這些串起來，Gunjan 提到增加 10 億美元。如果我們以每季 2 億美元，再加上 Amazon 的 7,500 萬到 8,500 萬來看，這些併購所帶來、我們正在導入的營收，合計會超過 10 億美元，我們對此很興奮。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

Gerard Cassidy，RBC Capital Markets。

Can you guys share with us the build-out of the consumer branches that you mentioned, Gunjan, I think you said you're going to spend $300 million up from $200 million. How much of that is for new branches and versus just rehabbing existing branches? And then second, how long does it take when you do build a new branch in your markets, does it take to reach breakeven and then to a profitability level that you're satisfied with?

你們能否跟我們分享你提到的消費金融分行擴建計畫，Gunjan？我想你說你們將投入 3 億美元，高於 2 億美元。其中有多少是用於新設分行，多少是用於整修既有分行？第二，當你們在既有市場新設一間分行時，通常需要多久才能達到損益兩平，並進一步達到你們滿意的獲利水準？

Yes. Thank you, Gerard. And we spotlighted that business because having really worked on our expenses and fees last year. We are very focused now on the consumer deposit franchise, in particular. These consumer relationships are increasingly driving card in our wealth business as well because we've gotten quite good at it.

是的。謝謝你，Gerard。我們特別聚焦這項業務，因為去年我們確實在費用與手續費方面做了很多工作。現在我們非常專注於消費者存款特許經營（deposit franchise），尤其如此。這些消費者關係也愈來愈能帶動我們財富管理業務中的卡片業務，因為我們在這方面做得相當好。

So it's a very important part of our strategy as we look forward. And hence, higher investment into the branches. It's not a onetime step-up. It's just something we have been gradually leaning into. For context, the last 10-ish years now, we have been reshaping our branch network to go from what it was, which was a lot of Tier 3 markets smaller service branches, many of them in-store locations to modern technology-enabled multi-product hubs in attractive Tier 2 like markets.

因此，展望未來，這是我們策略中非常重要的一環。也因此，我們對分行的投資會提高。這不是一次性的上調。而是我們一直在逐步加大投入的方向。作為背景，過去大約 10 年，我們一直在重塑分行網路：從原本以第三級市場（Tier 3）的較小服務型分行為主、其中許多是店中店據點，轉型為在具吸引力的第二級市場（Tier 2）等地區、以現代科技賦能的多產品樞紐。

So that's been the journey all along. We are at a point when the refurbishment part of our branch network is largely done. So we are now leaning into new builds and a new growth focus. Our first set of on densifying within our region. The returns on that investments are very quick because the brand is known.

這一路以來就是這樣的旅程。目前我們已經走到一個階段：分行網路的翻新（refurbishment）部分大致完成。因此我們現在更著力於新建與新的成長重點。我們第一波會先在既有區域內加密佈點（densifying）。這類投資的回收很快，因為品牌已經為人所知。

The customers are going back and forth from those geographies. So we tend to arrive at our sort of attractive target numbers very quickly. When you inch out to brand new locations, it's a slightly longer runway. That's why we look for a strategy where we've already planted a flag to our client centers. And those are important aspects for us as well.

客戶也會在這些地理區域之間往返。所以我們通常能很快達到我們所設定的具吸引力目標數字。當你往全新地點延伸時，跑道會稍微長一些。這也是為什麼我們會尋求一種策略：在我們已經插旗、設有客戶中心（client centers）的地方來推進。而這些對我們也同樣重要。

The client center houses our wealth teams, our commercial teams, our mortgage teams, increasingly small business, and they are also anchored around some of our partnership relationships. So we would expect that for the next few years, the focus will be on the densification. The returns are very good there on the investments and then the expansions are more strategic in nature.

客戶中心容納了我們的財富團隊、商業團隊、房貸團隊，並且愈來愈多地涵蓋小型企業；同時也會圍繞我們的一些合作夥伴關係作為據點。因此我們預期未來幾年重點會放在加密佈點。在那裡的投資報酬非常好，而對外擴張則更偏策略性。

I see. And Gunjan, have you identified the number of branches per year over the next two or three years that you might be building?

了解。那 Gunjan，你們是否已經確定未來兩到三年每年可能新建的分行數量？

Yes. I mean, Gerard, we anticipate accelerating that. Part of this as well as we've been spending some time in how to drive the cost down of branch build out, how we do it faster. So that's all going to be incorporated. We don't have a specific number in mind that's going to -- it's going to ramp, though as we continue here.

是的。我的意思是，Gerard，我們預期會加速。其中一部分也是因為我們一直在研究如何降低分行建置成本、如何更快完成。所以這些都會納入其中。我們目前沒有一個明確的數字——但隨著我們持續推進，會逐步拉升。

The densification, as Gunjan mentioned, that's kind of our first priority as the refurbishments have largely taken hold. And obviously, we'll have refurbishments ongoing. That's just kind of the care and feeding of the network that we want to make sure that we do. But also, it's important that we have the product set with the Bank Smartly suite and in the products we have now and our are the pricing models that we have associated with that we have in an area where we can equip the frontline branch folks with the tools to help us grow and drive down that breakeven time which is what we're really focused on.

如 Gunjan 所提到的，加密佈點是我們的第一優先，因為翻新大致已經到位。當然，我們也會持續進行翻新。那就是我們希望確保做到的網路日常維護與持續投入。但同時也很重要的是，我們已具備產品組合——包括 Bank Smartly 方案，以及我們目前的產品與其相應的定價模型——使我們能讓第一線分行同仁配備工具，協助我們成長並縮短達到損益兩平的時間，這正是我們真正聚焦的重點。

Very good. And then as a follow-up question, and this is maybe tough to answer. We see in this country, the benefits of the build-out of AI, both in data centers and all the capital expenditures that are being done, have you guys been able to look at your second derivative exposures what the benefits are that you might be seeing, John, I think you touched on your commercial loan growth was quite good across the different size companies, but we've been asking on these calls, what kind of impact this having on the numbers, not just in lending, but BTIG is probably volumes we saw with the big investment banks.

很好。接著一個追問，這可能比較難回答。我們看到在這個國家，AI 擴建（包括資料中心與各項資本支出）的效益正在浮現；你們是否能夠檢視你們的二階衍生曝險（second derivative exposures），看看可能帶來哪些好處？John，我想你提到你們的商業貸款成長在不同規模的公司間都相當不錯；但我們在這些電話會議上一直在問，這對數字的影響是什麼——不只是放款，BTIG 可能也反映在我們看到大型投行的交易量上。

The trading volumes were phenomenal in this quarter and a lot of it had to do with the hyperscalers and the semiconductor stocks. So have you guys been able to -- or have you started to look at what kind of presence is this new industry having on your business and should it ever slow down what it might do to the impact on some of the growth you're experiencing?

本季的交易量非常驚人，其中很大一部分與超大規模雲端業者（hyperscalers）以及半導體股票有關。所以你們是否已經能——或是否已開始——評估這個新產業在你們業務上的存在感會帶來什麼影響？以及如果它未來放緩，可能會如何影響你們目前正在經歷的一些成長？

Yes. It's a good question, Gerard. I think from a -- I think there's more direct impact with the capital market space. But I'll tell you, we're not the very biggest headlines we may not be as involved in, but there's a number of just activities that are going on with our clients across. I think I understand the AI, the build of all that and how that can -- that certainly is helping the US GDP. But I think the way we view our -- the way we talk to our clients, they are growing their businesses and it's in all areas. It's in food and beverage. It's in media and technology. It's in power.

是的。這是個好問題，Gerard。我認為從——我認為在資本市場領域的直接影響更大。但我想說的是，我們可能不是最大的頭條新聞、也未必參與得那麼深，不過我們與客戶之間確實有許多正在進行的活動，涵蓋各個面向。我想我理解 AI、以及所有這些建置的推進，還有它如何——這當然正在幫助美國 GDP。但我認為我們看待——我們與客戶溝通的方式是，他們正在擴張業務，而且是全方位的。涵蓋食品與飲料。涵蓋媒體與科技。也涵蓋電力。

It's in -- so I mean -- so some of that clearly has more tangential to the build, but others are not. So I just think there's just people are feeling very optimistic. They want to grow their business, and we're here to support them. And I think that's -- those are the broad themes we think about right now.

也涵蓋——所以我的意思是——其中有些顯然與這些建置較為間接相關，但也有些不是。所以我只是覺得，大家整體情緒非常樂觀。他們想要擴張業務，而我們在這裡支持他們。我認為這就是我們目前思考的主要大方向。

I would just add, Gerard, for us, the data center loans, in particular, are not very large in terms of on our balance sheet. The sentiment rebound from the pause around the tariffs last year has been the story. We've heard it certainly in the Middle American footprint that we've had. A lot of people who had paused last year to say where is all of this going are seeing a very resilient consumer and a lot of demand and beginning to lean into that in a fair way. So it's very -- it's more broad-based and healthier loan growth and loan demand than just a concentrated AI trade.

我再補充一下，Gerard，對我們而言，資料中心貸款特別是，就我們資產負債表而言規模並不大。去年關稅暫停後帶來的情緒回升才是主要故事。我們確實在我們所覆蓋的美國中部市場聽到這樣的聲音。很多去年按下暫停鍵、在觀望事情走向的人，現在看到消費者非常有韌性、需求也很強，開始以相當合理的方式加大投入。所以這是更廣泛、更健康的貸款成長與貸款需求，而不只是集中在 AI 交易上的成長。

And you're right, we do try to look through the motivations behind the loan demand, and it's quite healthy right now.

你說得沒錯，我們確實會試著看穿貸款需求背後的動機，而目前看起來相當健康。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

Manan Gosalia，摩根士丹利。

So you mentioned that deposit rates might go up a little bit as loan growth is stronger. I guess, question is, is there a difference in how proactive you want to be here? We're hearing from several banks that loan growth has been a little stronger than expected. Your loan growth outlook from here is pretty good. Rates have been fairly volatile.

所以你提到，隨著貸款成長更強，存款利率可能會小幅上升。我想問的是，你們在這裡想要採取多主動的作法，是否有差異？我們從幾家銀行聽到，貸款成長比預期稍強。你們接下來的貸款成長展望也相當不錯。利率一直相當波動。

We're going to get less forward-looking color from the Fed I guess, is there anything different that you're doing here that you weren't doing at the start of the year, maybe in terms of promo balances, marketing incentives to just get ahead of what could be a little bit more volatility on the deposit side.

我們可能會從聯準會那裡得到較少的前瞻性指引；我想問的是，你們現在是否有做任何與年初不同的事情，例如在促銷存款餘額、行銷誘因方面，來提前因應存款端可能出現的更大波動？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Manan. I think largely speaking,our strategy on deposits has held and remains on track. The consumer deposits, we continue to focus on. We've had three quarters there in a row of record deposit growth from -- on the consumer franchise.

是的。謝謝你的問題，Manan。整體而言，我們的存款策略一直維持不變，且仍在既定軌道上。我們持續聚焦於消費者存款。在消費者通路方面，我們已連續三個季度創下存款成長的紀錄。

The commercial side was a little light seasonally this quarter, but we anticipate that to continue to go up. And I would say from our seat, the commercial deposits will help fill any gap that we need from a loan growth perspective. So -- and the pricing on the commercial side is well understood by us, whereas the consumer side added tools and added models to help, again, our frontline folks in the network really help -- can help us price that appropriately.

商業端本季因季節性因素稍微偏弱，但我們預期會持續回升。而且我會說，從我們的角度來看，商業存款將有助於補足我們在貸款成長面可能需要的任何缺口。所以——商業端的定價我們掌握得很清楚；至於消費者端，我們新增了工具與模型，來協助——再次強調，協助我們網點第一線同仁，讓我們能更適切地進行定價。

And so we always see different pockets of pricing in different geographies and things like that, but that's sort of episode happen all the time. And so I don't think there's anything here any different than any other environment. So I would say largely, our strategy is intact.

因此，我們總是會在不同地區看到不同的定價區塊之類的情況，但這種情節一直都會發生。所以我不認為這裡有任何事情與其他環境有什麼不同。因此我會說，整體而言，我們的策略仍然完整不變。

Got it. Okay. Perfect. And then maybe just a follow-up to Gerard's question. Can you remind us which geographies you are focused on in terms of branch expansion?

了解。好的。很好。那再追問一個 Gerard 的問題。你能提醒我們，你們在分行擴張方面主要聚焦哪些地區嗎？

And I guess, what level of densification you expect to reach in these new markets? Is there a specific brand share number or rank or something you're targeting in the new markets you're expanding it?

另外，我想問在這些新市場你們預期要達到什麼程度的網點密度提升（densification）？在你們正在擴張的新市場中，是否有特定的品牌市占數字、排名或類似目標？

Yes. And we are looking to be more than 80% of the branch density target, which gets you into a sweet spot to be the top four depositor in the region, which is what our goal is, obviously, to be up higher than that as well. But at that number, it's pretty good. Right now, our focus very much has been in the Southwest. We've been growing out our Arizona footprint Nashville and surrounding Tennessee markets have been very good for us.

是的。我們希望達到分行密度目標的 80% 以上，這會讓你進入一個甜蜜點，使你成為該區域前四大存款機構，這當然也是我們的目標——而且我們也希望能更高。但在那個水準上，表現就已經相當不錯。目前我們的重點非常放在美國西南部。我們一直在擴大亞利桑那州的據點；納許維爾以及田納西州周邊市場對我們也非常好。

And then everything else not a book state-focused necessarily, but for example, parts of [Utah] are very high growth, even in and around Boise. So we are very surgical about how we think about permits that are being filed many years into advancement where the shopping is growing.

另外其他地區則不一定是以某個州為單位來聚焦；例如，[猶他州]的部分地區成長非常快，甚至在博伊西周邊也是如此。因此我們在評估時非常精準，會看那些多年來持續推進、且隨著商圈成長而陸續提出的許可申請。

And so we have a very good sense of where sort of household formation is higher. And I must say that since COVID, we have seen many, many areas within our footprint really revive in terms of affluence and in terms of younger generations moving in. And all of those, the quality of the household formation is very important to us, too.

因此我們非常清楚哪些地方的家庭形成（household formation）較高。我必須說，自 COVID 以來，我們看到我們覆蓋範圍內許多、許多地區在富裕程度以及年輕世代移入方面都出現明顯復甦。而在這些方面，家庭形成的品質對我們也非常重要。

So those are the [10-ish] markets just focus right now to get it above a certain branch density.

所以目前大概就聚焦在那約 10 個市場，把分行密度提升到某個門檻以上。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

Chris McGratty，KBW。

John, on the fixed rate asset repricing. Any update, given the curves moved from what you said last quarter and maybe remind us the pickup on both the loan and security side?

John，關於固定利率資產的重定價。鑑於殖利率曲線相較你上季所說的已有變動，有沒有最新進展？也請提醒我們，貸款端與證券端各自的利差提升（pickup）是多少？

Sure. Yes. So I think what's been going on is -- as we've been getting bigger, the bullet volumes have picked up in terms of the amount. I think that we have more like $10 billion to $11 billion per quarter that really come through in terms of repricing. You can think of about $3 million to $4 million of that is on the investment portfolio versus the balance being on the loan side.

當然。是的。我想目前的情況是——隨著我們規模變大，到期一次性（bullet）部位的量在金額上有所增加。我想我們每季大約有 100 億到 110 億美元會進來進行重定價。你可以把其中約 30 億到 40 億美元視為投資組合，剩下的則在貸款端。

I would say we're kind of in that 100 to 125 basis points. And it depends on what's rolling off and what the rate is at the time of coming on, and that's obviously very fluid. But it's been helpful. The Fed funds versus five-year treasuries around 60 bps or so, and that's been hanging in there. We obviously watch the forwards, and we know that, that forward curve is flattening as you look out.

我會說大概在 100 到 125 個基點的區間。這取決於到期的是哪些資產，以及新承作時的利率水準，而這顯然非常動態。但這一直很有幫助。聯邦基金利率相對於 5 年期公債大約 60 個基點左右，而且一直維持在那附近。我們當然也會看遠期市場，我們知道隨著期限拉長，遠期曲線正在趨於平坦。

But to the extent that it stays around here, we feel really good that hopefully that we can keep at that level or expand as we move forward.

但只要它大致維持在目前水準，我們就很有信心，希望能維持在這個水準，或在往前推進時進一步擴大。

Okay. Great. And given the positive commentary on loan growth, and the focus on the deposit -- the branches that we've been talking about. Is there any scenario where you might consider a depository acquisition over the medium term? (inaudible) no recently?

好的。很好。那在你們對貸款成長的正面評論，以及我們一直在談的存款——分行布局重點之下，中期來看，有沒有任何情境會讓你們考慮進行存款機構的併購？(聽不清楚) 最近沒有嗎？

Yes, nothing has changed really about our -- we are very targeted with our organic build on the deposit quality and the customer franchise quality. So yes, nothing has changed about us stance really focused on the organic growth aspects here.

是的，關於我們的情況其實沒有任何改變——我們在存款品質與客戶特許經營權（客戶基礎）品質的有機建置上，一直都非常聚焦且具針對性。所以是的，我們的立場並沒有改變，仍然真正專注在這裡的有機成長面向。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

Saul Martinez，匯豐（HSBC）。

So I apologize in advance, I'm going to get into the weeds on some of the numbers with some of these questions again. But on your NII guidance, that does include Amazon $80 million, $75 million, $85 million a quarter, that's half a quarter. That's about 1 percentage point of benefit in terms of the year-on-year growth. So 4% to 6% is organically, maybe 3% to 5%. And if I look at it on a sequential basis, it kind of implies flattish to about up 2%, which isn't really suggestive of much NIM expansion.

我先提前致歉，我又要就其中一些問題深入鑽研一些數字細節。不過就你們的淨利息收入（NII）指引而言，其中包含亞馬遜每季 8,000 萬美元、7,500 萬美元到 8,500 萬美元，這相當於半個季度。以年增成長來看，這大約帶來 1 個百分點的助益。所以 4% 到 6% 若是有機成長，可能是 3% 到 5%。而如果我用季比來看，似乎暗示大致持平到約成長 2%，這並不太像是有明顯的淨利差（NIM）擴張。

So I'm just curious, given everything else you guys are talking about and good underlying trends, loan growth, controlled deposit costs, as pricing whether there's an element of conservatism in this guide. And I'm just curious how you think about all that.

所以我只是好奇，考量你們談到的其他一切以及良好的基本面趨勢、放款成長、存款成本受控、以及定價等，這份指引是否帶有一些保守性。也想請教你們如何看待這些因素。

Sure. Just want to reiterate that $75 million to $85 million is a total revenue number, a majority of that is going to be NII. So it's probably -- I know I said majority, but it's probably, I would say, 2/3 is going to be NII to 1/3 fee is going to be roughly what it is, but that can move. So that maybe helps there a little bit. Of course, in the third quarter, we gave you a guide for 4% to 6%, and that includes half a quarter assumed for the Amazon.

當然。我想重申，7,500 萬到 8,500 萬美元是一個總收入數字，其中大部分會是淨利息收入（NII）。所以它大概——我知道我說「大部分」，但我會說大約 2/3 會是 NII、1/3 會是手續費收入，概略上是這樣，但也可能會變動。所以這或許能在某種程度上幫助釐清。當然，在第三季我們給了 4% 到 6% 的指引，其中包含假設亞馬遜貢獻半個季度。

So there's pieces of it before it kind of ramps up fully in the fourth quarter. That's why we anticipate, as I mentioned earlier, our trajectory of NIM and net interest income kind of kind of growing throughout the course of the year, in part due to the Amazon. But of course, we have momentum in other places. The loan growth, as we've talked about, is positive. I just answered a question on the fixed-asset repricing.

因此在第四季完全爬升之前，會先有部分貢獻。這也是為什麼我先前提到，我們預期今年整體過程中，淨利差（NIM）與淨利息收入會呈現逐步成長的軌跡，部分原因來自亞馬遜。但當然，我們在其他方面也有動能。如我們所談，放款成長是正向的。我剛也回答了關於固定資產重定價的問題。

Those are the positive items, obviously, that we'll continue to manifest. The things that we're watching and is the deposit side as well as the shape of the curve, those are kind of the things that can move, and we'll watch that obviously very closely.

這些都是正向因素，顯然我們會持續展現出來。我們正在觀察的事項包括存款端以及殖利率曲線的形狀；這些是可能會變動的因素，我們也會非常密切地關注。

Okay. That's helpful. Then more -- just to go back to the BTIG numbers and follow up on some of the questions there, make sure I have them straight here. So $200 million a quarter and then $100 million in June, so that's about $500 million. You have $60 million of integration costs built into that and the 15% margin.

好的。這很有幫助。接著——回到 BTIG 的數字並延伸追問幾個問題，確認我理解正確。所以每季 2 億美元，然後 6 月有 1 億美元，所以合計大約 5 億美元。其中包含 6,000 萬美元的整合成本，以及 15% 的利潤率。

That margin is net -- my understanding net of those integration costs, which would imply $60 million or $500 million, that's a big number that the sort of a cleaner margin on this is much higher mid-20 kind of percent margin. Am I thinking about that right? Because you also said 20% was what you had in your head, but it does imply a 15% margin with $60 million of integration costs, we would imply that the margin is much higher than that.

我理解那個利潤率是淨額——也就是扣除那些整合成本之後；若是如此，6,000 萬美元相對於 5 億美元是很大的數字，代表這筆業務更「乾淨」的利潤率其實要高得多，大概是 20% 中段的利潤率。我這樣想對嗎？因為你也說過你心裡想的是 20%，但若在有 6,000 萬美元整合成本的情況下仍是 15% 利潤率，就意味著利潤率應該遠高於 15%。

Yes. I think, Saul, for the -- just to clarify, so that the $60 million is kind of outside of the 15% contribution. So the $200 million, I'd multiply that by 85% to get the expense rate, and that's kind of our core operating model at this particular juncture. I would anticipate $60 million or so, 30 or so per quarter here in the third and fourth quarter, there might be some trailing components of that in the first quarter. We'll see as we kind of progress.

是的。Saul，我想——澄清一下：那 6,000 萬美元是 15% 貢獻之外的。所以 2 億美元乘以 85% 來得到費用率，這大致就是我們在目前這個時間點的核心營運模型。我預期大約 6,000 萬美元左右，也就是第三季與第四季每季約 3,000 萬美元；第一季可能還會有一些尾端項目。我們會隨著進展再看。

But in terms of the contribution margin, that 15% is a good core base run rate. That's why we gave it to you in that sense. And then we'll, obviously, over time, we look to improve that, as I mentioned.

但就貢獻利潤率而言，15% 是一個不錯的核心基礎運行水準。這就是我們以那種方式提供給你們的原因。然後隨著時間推進，我們當然會如我所提到的，努力去改善它。

David Chiaverini, Jefferies.

David Chiaverini，Jefferies。

I wanted to ask on slide 6 to highlight the payments businesses. And good trends overall, but you do show the merchant processing, the middle chart showing a slowdown. You cited the softness in Europe, anything else that's driving that? And what's the outlook for the merchant processing business going forward?

我想針對第 6 張投影片、你們強調的支付業務提問。整體趨勢不錯，但你們確實顯示商戶收單（merchant processing）——中間那張圖表顯示成長放緩。你們提到歐洲疲弱，還有其他因素在驅動嗎？以及未來商戶收單業務的展望如何？

Yes. As I -- on the merchant side, yes, certainly, Europe had an impact on the business. We just saw slowness post war impacts that gave us that sort of thing. However, we also had loss of some nonstrategic distribution partners that over there and that we've -- that we will feel that impact for the next three quarters or so. So I think our growth rate will be -- so while the European macro component will come back, the distribution component or the partner aspect will hang for a few quarters.

是的。如我——在商戶端，是的，歐洲確實對業務造成影響。我們看到戰後影響之後的放緩，導致出現那樣的情況。不過，我們也失去了一些在那邊的非策略性分銷合作夥伴，而我們——我們將在接下來大約三個季度感受到這個影響。所以我認為我們的成長率會——因此，即使歐洲的總體環境因素會回來，分銷端或合作夥伴面向仍會拖累幾個季度。

And this is just part of the transformation as we Gunjan has talked about, is a very big priority for us. And so while we anticipate perhaps lower growth rates in the near term here for merchant, we do expect the other parts of the payment complex to really -- to improve. All the cards are doing very well, as we've talked about, corporate, retail and small business are doing quite well.

而這也是轉型的一部分，正如 Gunjan 所談，這對我們是非常高的優先事項。因此，雖然我們預期短期內商戶業務的成長率可能較低，但我們確實預期支付版圖中的其他部分會真正——改善。如我們所談，所有卡業務表現都很好，企業、零售與小型企業都做得相當不錯。

And I would just add for the total payment business, which is quite sizable for us, about 23% of our total revenue this quarter. The revenue grew very healthily. It's 5.7%, so well within our mid-single-digit expectations from a medium-term target standpoint and quite strengthened from last year. Last year, we were really looking at the corporate side dragging because of slowness in corporate and government spend, and they have come back very much. So the diversification benefits are real, but we absolutely feel confident in the mid-single-digit number for the overall payments complex and on the better side of that range as we go forward.

我再補充一下，對我們而言整體支付業務規模相當可觀，本季約占我們總收入的 23%。收入成長非常健康。成長率是 5.7%，從中期目標角度來看，完全落在我們預期的中個位數成長區間內，且相較去年明顯增強。去年我們主要看到企業端因企業與政府支出放緩而拖累，但現在已大幅回升。所以多元化帶來的效益是真實的；而對於整體支付版圖，我們對中個位數的成長數字非常有信心，且往後將更偏向該區間的較佳端。

Great. And then shifting to a housekeeping question on Amazon. How much in onetime costs, if any, related to Amazon are embedded in the expense guide?

很好。接著轉到一個例行性問題，關於亞馬遜。費用指引中包含多少與亞馬遜相關的一次性成本（若有的話）？

Yes. We've embedded some of that already in our run rate. And so there has been some cost some of the other expense and so on and so forth that you're seeing, but that's already been largely embedded. There might be some other ongoing, but that's all embedded into our guide that we've been talking about.

是的。我們已經把其中一部分納入我們的運行基準（run rate）中。因此你看到的其他費用等項目中確實有一些成本，但大多已經被納入。可能還會有一些其他持續性的項目，但都已包含在我們一直在談的指引之中。

And are you able to quantify the -- that impact or no?

那你們能量化——那個影響嗎？還是不行？

It's -- there's probably $20 million to $30 million or so this quarter. And there's been a little bit prior to that, but it's been -- it hasn't been worth mentioning is it's been pretty immaterial.

大概本季是 2,000 萬到 3,000 萬美元左右。在此之前也有一點，但——不太值得特別提，因為相當不具重大性。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

Vivek Juneja，摩根大通。

Question on BTIG. What are your plans for expanding that in terms of growing its panoply of products or capabilities is research, sales, et cetera? And also, what are your plans? And what have you factored in, in terms of adding to risk and controls and regulatory given that it's now part of a bank umbrella, and it's a very widespread franchise all the way from Norway to Australia and Hong Kong.

關於 BTIG 的問題。就擴展而言，您在擴大其產品或能力版圖（例如研究、銷售等）方面有什麼計畫？另外，您的計畫是什麼？鑑於它現在已納入銀行體系之下，且其業務版圖從挪威一路延伸到澳洲與香港、是一個非常廣泛的特許經營，您在增加風險與控制以及監管方面，已納入了哪些考量？

Yes. Thank you, Vivek. Broadly speaking, our sense is their product capabilities are complementary to the franchise And the focus is on leveraging those within our existing client base rather than building the franchise out over time. So product build is not a big part of our immediate plans.

是的。謝謝你，Vivek。總體而言，我們認為他們的產品能力與我們的特許經營是互補的。我們的重點是把這些能力運用在我們既有的客戶基礎上，而不是隨時間推進去擴張該特許經營本身。因此，產品建置並不是我們近期計畫中的重要部分。

And the risk and control overlays are very important, and they're already in place we've anticipated this deal for some time. So we were building those out here earlier in the year and from day one, all of that is -- all of that infrastructure is fully in place at this point.

而風險與控制的疊加措施非常重要，而且已經到位；我們已預期這筆交易有一段時間了。因此我們在今年稍早就開始建置，從第一天起，所有這些——所有這些基礎設施目前都已完全就緒。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

Matt O'Connor，德意志銀行。

I know period-end balance sheets can be a little quirky, but you had a big increase in cash lower securities maybe from the restructuring and then a big increase in short-term borrowings. And is that the BTIG deal, something else going on or just kind of quarter-end ads?

我知道期末資產負債表有時會有點不尋常，但你們的現金與較低風險證券大幅增加，可能是因重整所致，然後短期借款也大幅增加。這是 BTIG 交易造成的，還是有其他事情，或只是季末的調整？

Yes. It's more of the latter, Matt, thanks for the question. It's going to -- June 30 and December 30 are very intense high activities for our clients, especially given our investment services businesses and things of that variety. So while obviously, ending balance sheets are important. I always stress to investors that the averages are the best place to look.

是的。比較偏向後者，Matt，謝謝你的問題。6 月 30 日和 12 月 30 日對我們的客戶而言是活動非常密集的時點，特別是考量到我們的投資服務業務以及類似業務。所以，雖然期末資產負債表當然重要，但我總是強調投資人，平均數才是最值得看的地方。

So you do have some elevation there. However, I would say on the investment portfolio, because of the sale, we had $1.6 billion of sales this quarter as we did there. I do anticipate that the investment portfolio will kind of keep at this level or so. as we kind of have been trading the securities book balances for more loan balances, which we think is a healthy thing to do from a balance sheet perspective.

因此你確實會看到一些抬升。不過我會說，就投資組合而言，因為出售的關係，我們本季有 16 億美元的出售，如同我們所做的那樣。我確實預期投資組合大致會維持在這個水準左右，因為我們一直在把證券簿的餘額換成更多的貸款餘額；從資產負債表角度來看，我們認為這是健康的作法。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just separately, kind of a more big picture question on the AMEX or the Amazon deal that came from AMEX. I guess, what's the kind of opportunity over time here. It's $1.6 billion.

好的。這很有幫助。另外，單獨一個比較宏觀的問題，關於 AMEX（美國運通）或是從 AMEX 而來的 Amazon 交易。我想，這裡長期的機會大概是什麼？規模是 16 億美元。

It seems like a pretty meaningful refresh switching over to Mastercard. I assume Amazon picked you over where they've been (inaudible) for a reason, and I would assume, optimism to grow it. So just talk about is this a book to grow 5%, 10%? Or we're going to walk in a couple of years and it's just significantly bigger for kind of obvious reasons?

看起來這次改為 Mastercard 是一次相當有意義的更新。我猜 Amazon 選擇你們而不是他們原本的（聽不清）一定有原因，而且我也會假設他們對成長是樂觀的。所以請談談，這會是一本每年成長 5%、10% 的業務嗎？還是說我們兩年後再看，它就會因為一些顯而易見的原因而大幅變大？

Yes. Thank you. It's a very strategic deal for us, certainly economically very, very attractive, but it introduces us to the small business segment around a partner that has a long-standing reputation of growing quite robustly. Their vision for this product set and this partnership is to do anything they can to support a very large ecosystem of small businesses around their platform. They think expansively about how to provide financial services to them, very keen on exploring our business essentials, smartly like product platform to figure out how card and banking and some amount of ancillary services even around the payments can be fully provided to the base.

是的。謝謝。這對我們而言是一筆非常具策略性的交易，經濟上當然也非常、非常有吸引力；但它也讓我們透過一個長期以來以相當強勁成長著稱的合作夥伴，進入小型企業客群。他們對這組產品與這段合作關係的願景，是盡其所能支持其平台周邊非常龐大的小型企業生態系。他們以更宏觀的方式思考如何向其提供金融服務，非常積極探索我們的 business essentials、類似 Smartly 的產品平台，以釐清如何把卡片、銀行，以及某種程度上甚至支付周邊的附加服務，完整提供給這個客群。

So we expect that this will be a visionary set of product development. And of course, we hope the book will grow, but we don't have experience with this yet. We'll convert it and then we'll get a sense of how it grows. It joins pretty robust co-brand platform for us, which is providing a lot of scale to our existing products, reviewed almost all parts of the business. So we are anticipating it will create a strategic platform that will be leveraged with our own small businesses and perhaps with our other deals.

因此我們預期這將是一套具前瞻性的產品開發組合。當然，我們希望這本業務能成長，但我們目前還沒有這方面的經驗。我們會先完成轉換，然後再了解它的成長情況。它也加入了我們相當強健的聯名（co-brand）平台，為我們既有產品提供了很大的規模效益，幾乎涵蓋業務的各個部分。因此我們預期它將打造一個策略性平台，可與我們自身的小型企業業務、以及或許與我們其他交易一併加以運用。

But more to come once we experience the book, we experienced the nature of the relationship, we'll know more next earnings quarter.

不過，等我們實際經營這本業務、體驗這段關係的性質之後，會有更多可以分享；我們在下一個財報季度會知道更多。

Okay. So more than just kind of targeting the credit card balances. I mean, have you now got also going after like the former small business checking accounts or accounts is that part of the thought process when you say traditional banking as well?

好的。所以不只是鎖定信用卡餘額而已。我的意思是，你們現在也會去爭取例如原本的小型企業支票帳戶或帳戶嗎？當你說也包含傳統銀行業務時，這是否也是思考的一部分？

It is because you know this is -- we've had a partnership platform with State Farm that we -- and then we improve with Edward Jones that brings banking and credit card together in a branded name for the partner. And that's the platform we are now enhancing for the small business because it was built for consumer.

是的，因為你知道，這是——我們與 State Farm 有一個合作平台——然後我們也與 Edward Jones 一起改進，讓銀行與信用卡能以合作夥伴的品牌名稱結合在一起。而我們現在正在把這個原本為消費者打造的平台，進一步強化以服務小型企業。

So we know how to do it, all the operational processes around how do you bank a credit card and a banking customer out of our footprint through digital means are all now in place. We've had two or three years of experience running that. So the expansion of the partner platform to small business could be sort of a strategy we grow out over time. Very exciting.

所以我們知道怎麼做；所有營運流程——例如如何透過數位方式，在我們的服務版圖內同時服務信用卡與銀行客戶——現在都已到位。我們已經有兩到三年的營運經驗。因此，把合作夥伴平台擴展到小型企業，可能會是一項我們隨時間逐步推進的成長策略。非常令人振奮。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Mauney, I'll turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。Mauney 先生，我把電話交回給您。

All right. Thank you to everyone who joined our call this morning. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Krista, you may now disconnect.

好的。感謝今天早上參與我們電話會議的各位。如有任何後續問題，請聯絡投資人關係部門。Krista，您現在可以斷線了。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call, and you may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束，您現在可以斷線。