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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 10:00 A.M. Central Time.
歡迎參加美國合眾銀行(U.S. Bancorp)2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 本次電話會議將被錄音,並自今日中部時間上午約 10:00 起提供重播。
I will now turn the conference call over to Brian Mauney, Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.
現在我將把電話會議交給美國合眾銀行投資人關係總監 Brian Mauney。
Brian Mauney - Director of Investor Relations
Brian Mauney - Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. And good morning, everyone.
謝謝,接線員。各位早安。
Today, I am joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Gunjan Kedia; and Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer, John Stern. In a moment, Gunjan and John will be referencing a slide presentation together with their prepared remarks. A copy of the presentation, our press release, and supplemental analyst schedules can be found on our website at ir.usbank.com.
今天與我一同出席的有本公司董事長暨執行長 Gunjan Kedia,以及副董事長暨財務長 John Stern。稍後,Gunjan 與 John 將配合投影片簡報進行事先準備的發言。簡報檔、新聞稿以及補充分析師資料表可於我們的網站 ir.usbank.com 取得。
Please note that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on page 2 of today's earnings presentation, our press release, and reports on file with the SEC. Following our prepared remarks, Gunjan and John will be happy to take any questions that you have.
請注意,今日電話會議中的任何前瞻性陳述均受風險與不確定性影響。可能對我們目前前瞻性假設造成重大變動的因素,已載於今日財報簡報第 2 頁、新聞稿,以及向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)申報存檔的報告中。完成事先準備的發言後,Gunjan 與 John 很樂意回答各位的提問。
I will now turn the call over to Gunjan.
現在我將把電話會議交給 Gunjan。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Brian. Good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,Brian。各位早安。
Beginning on slide 3, we delivered another strong quarter, highlighted by record net revenue of approximately $8 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.34, up approximately 10% from a year ago. Results in the quarter reflect strong execution against our three strategic priorities. Net revenue grew 8.7% year over year. Disciplined productivity drove 240 basis points of positive operating leverage. And in payments, our transformation efforts continued to gain traction with total payments revenue growing 6.5% year over year.
從第 3 張投影片開始,我們再度交出強勁的一季,亮點包括約 80 億美元的創新高淨營收,以及稀釋後每股盈餘 1.34 美元,較去年同期成長約 10%。本季結果反映我們在三項策略優先事項上的強力執行。淨營收年增 8.7%。嚴謹的生產力管理帶來 240 個基點的正向營運槓桿。在支付業務方面,我們的轉型工作持續取得進展,帶動支付總收入年增 6.5%。
Turning to slide 4. Fees continued to grow nicely and contributed 44% of total revenue again this quarter. Our fee complex is diversified and deepens client relationships, generates attractive returns, and contributes to a more balanced earnings profile. While fee growth does come with higher expenses, productivity initiatives, including from our AI programs, helped improve our efficiency ratio and increased return on average assets year over year.
接著看第 4 張投影片。手續費收入持續穩健成長,本季再度貢獻總收入的 44%。我們的手續費收入組合多元且具深度,可深化客戶關係、創造具吸引力的報酬,並有助於形成更均衡的獲利結構。雖然手續費成長會伴隨較高費用,但包括 AI 計畫在內的生產力措施,協助改善效率比率,並使平均資產報酬率較去年同期提升。
On slide 5, we spotlight global capital markets, an attractive growth opportunity across a range of economic scenarios. We closed the BTIG acquisition in June, and it contributed $226 million of fee revenue in the third quarter. Our combined businesses are off to a wonderful start and already working very closely together to broaden how we serve our clients.
在第 5 張投影片,我們聚焦全球資本市場,這是在多種經濟情境下都具吸引力的成長機會。我們於 6 月完成 BTIG 併購,並在第三季貢獻 2.26 億美元的手續費收入。合併後的業務開局非常順利,且已開始緊密合作,以擴大我們服務客戶的方式與範圍。
We expect capital markets to grow from 8% to 10% or more of total company revenue over the next three to five years by focusing on three strategies. One, continue to drive robust core organic growth across both franchises in line with their historical performance.
我們預期未來三到五年,透過聚焦三項策略,資本市場收入占全公司總收入的比重可由 8% 提升至 10% 或更高。第一,延續兩個平台在各自特許經營體系中的強勁核心有機成長,並與其歷史表現一致。
Second, deepen wallet share with our clients where we deploy significant balance sheet resources. The addition of BTIG strengthens our ability to serve a broader range of needs and capture greater fee revenue over time.
第二,對於我們投入大量資產負債表資源的客戶,提升其錢包占有率。納入 BTIG 強化了我們服務更廣泛需求的能力,並可隨時間推進擷取更多手續費收入。
Third, by adding product capabilities across both platforms. We look forward to sharing more on our capital markets strategy at a conference later this fall and are committed to providing more disclosures in due course as the business becomes a larger part of our revenue mix.
第三,在兩個平台上擴增產品能力。我們期待在今年秋季稍晚的一場會議上分享更多資本市場策略內容,並承諾隨著該業務在我們收入組合中的占比提高,將在適當時點提供更多揭露。
With fees and expenses in a healthy place, this year, we have increasingly turned our attention to strengthening net interest income and margin. An important lever of this growth is expanding our consumer and small business franchise, which provides a highly attractive source of funding.
在手續費與費用維持健康水準之際,今年我們愈來愈將重點轉向強化淨利息收入與利差。推動此成長的一項重要槓桿,是擴大我們的消費金融與小型企業特許經營體系,因其可提供極具吸引力的資金來源。
Slide 6 is a busy chart. It captures our footprint and expansion strategies. We are densifying our branch presence and leveraging client centers that have long supported our national businesses. We are supporting this ground game with targeted brand investments, including through our NFL partnership and new brand ambassadors such as Fernando Mendoza, Christian McCaffrey, and most recently, Jessica Alba for our small business segment.
第 6 張投影片是一張資訊量很大的圖表。它呈現我們的據點版圖與擴張策略。我們正提高分行據點密度,並運用長期支援我們全國性業務的客戶中心。我們也以精準的品牌投資支援這項地面作戰,包括透過我們與 NFL 的合作夥伴關係,以及新的品牌代言人,如 Fernando Mendoza、Christian McCaffrey,以及最近為小型企業客群加入的 Jessica Alba。
Turning to slide 7, we highlight small business banking. We serve more than two million small businesses through a scaled, interconnected platform that contributes meaningfully to company revenue and is an invaluable source of stable, well-priced deposits. Over the past several years, we have built a unique foundation of banking, payments, and cash management capabilities.
接著看第 7 張投影片,我們重點介紹小型企業金融服務。我們透過具規模、相互連結的平台服務超過 200 萬家小型企業,對公司收入有顯著貢獻,並且是穩定且定價良好的存款之重要來源。過去幾年,我們建立了獨特的銀行、支付與現金管理能力基礎。
This quarter, we launched several major initiatives to expand our reach with small businesses as we onboarded the Amazon co-brand partnership, expanded the Business Essentials suite of products, and established new banking teams in expansion markets. We have a truly differentiated set of products and an enviable client footprint with small business, and this segment will be an important priority going into 2027.
本季,我們推出多項重大計畫以擴大對小型企業的觸及,包括導入與 Amazon 的聯名合作夥伴關係、擴充 Business Essentials 產品套組,並在擴張市場成立新的銀行業務團隊。我們在小型企業領域擁有真正差異化的產品組合與令人稱羨的客戶版圖,而此業務區塊將是邁入 2027 年的重要優先事項。
Finally, on slide 8, I want to spend a moment on corporate payments and treasury management, which together represent approximately 6% of our company revenues. The corporate payments landscape has the potential to be transformed by the growing convergence of treasury management rails like ACH and wires, card rails, and new stablecoins and tokenized deposits. These businesses have delivered a strong quarter, benefiting from market share gains as well as tailwinds from fuel price increases in our fleet and freight businesses.
最後,在第 8 張投影片,我想花一點時間談談企業支付與財資管理,兩者合計約占公司收入的 6%。企業支付的版圖,可能因財資管理支付軌道(如 ACH 與電匯)、卡片支付軌道,以及新興穩定幣與代幣化存款之間日益融合而被重塑。這些業務本季表現強勁,受惠於市占率提升,以及我們車隊與貨運業務中燃料價格上漲所帶來的順風。
Earlier this quarter, we launched our first USBDC stablecoin pilot. While these trends are emerging, we are uniquely positioned to succeed in corporate payments, and we are investing to create interoperability across these rails to deliver both the benefits of new technologies and the safety and soundness of the banking system.
在本季稍早,我們啟動了首個 USBDC 穩定幣試點計畫。儘管這些趨勢仍在發展中,我們在企業支付領域具備獨特的成功優勢;我們也正投入資源打造各支付軌道之間的互通性,以同時提供新技術的效益,以及銀行體系的安全與穩健。
Let me now turn it over to John.
接下來我把時間交給 John。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thanks, Gunjan. And good morning, everyone.
謝謝,Gunjan。各位早安。
Third quarter results reflected another strong quarter and demonstrated continued execution against our strategic priorities, generating meaningful revenue growth and significant positive operating leverage. Results remained firmly within all of our medium-term target ranges.
第三季結果反映又一個強勁季度,並展現我們持續落實策略優先事項,帶來具意義的收入成長與顯著的正向營運槓桿。整體表現仍穩固落在我們所有中期目標區間之內。
If you turn to slide 9, we provide highlights for the third quarter. We reported earnings per common share of $1.34, with approximately $0.07 impact from reserve build this quarter. This equates to 10% year-over-year EPS growth, or 16% excluding the reserve build. Revenue was a record $8 billion, up 8.7% from a year ago, or up 6.4% adjusting for BTIG and securities losses. Meanwhile, expenses grew 7.1% year-over-year, or 2.0% excluding BTIG, implying 440 basis points of positive operating leverage excluding BTIG.
若各位翻到第 9 張投影片,我們提供第三季重點摘要。我們公布普通股每股盈餘 1.34 美元,其中本季因提列準備金增加(reserve build)約影響 0.07 美元。這相當於每股盈餘年增 10%,若排除準備金增加則為年增 16%。營收創新高達 80 億美元,較去年同期成長 8.7%;若就 BTIG 與證券損失進行調整,則成長 6.4%。同時,費用年增 7.1%;若排除 BTIG,則年增 2.0%,意味著在排除 BTIG 後的正向營運槓桿為 440 個基點。
Balance sheet trends remain constructive. Loans grew 1.0% and deposits grew 2.2% sequentially, while the net interest margin expanded five basis points to 2.84%. Credit quality metrics remained healthy across the board. Linked quarter non-performing assets declined 1.6% and net charge-offs declined two basis points to 51 basis points. CET1 ratio remains stable at 10.8%, and tangible book value per share was up 5.4% year over year.
資產負債表趨勢仍具建設性。貸款季增 1.0%,存款季增 2.2%,同時淨利息利差擴大 5 個基點至 2.84%。整體信用品質指標維持健康。與前一季相比,不良資產下降 1.6%,淨沖銷下降 2 個基點至 51 個基點。CET1 比率維持穩定於 10.8%,每股有形帳面價值年增 5.4%。
Slide 10 provides our key performance metrics. Our profitability metrics continued to move up and to the right, while our efficiency ratio improved toward the better end of our medium-term target range.
第10頁提供我們的關鍵績效指標。我們的獲利能力指標持續向上改善,而我們的效率比率也朝向中期目標區間較佳的一端改善。
Slide 11 provides a summary of our loan and earning asset mix evolution. Average loans grew 8.0% year-over-year and 1.0% sequentially. Versus the prior year, growth continues to be driven by C&I, credit card, and commercial real estate. Categories that typically deepen relationships and deliver incremental fee opportunities. The Amazon Small Business credit card portfolio contributed approximately $900 million and $1.7 billion to the third quarter average and period end loans, respectively.
第11頁提供我們貸款與生息資產組合演變的摘要。平均貸款年增8.0%,季增1.0%。相較於去年,成長仍主要由商業與工業(C&I)、信用卡以及商用不動產所帶動。這些類別通常能加深客戶關係並帶來額外的手續費機會。Amazon 小型企業信用卡投資組合分別對第三季平均貸款與期末貸款貢獻約9億美元與17億美元。
Importantly, our focus in these loan growth areas is naturally positioning our balance sheet to become more asset sensitive. For example, floating rate loans comprise 36% of earning assets as of quarter end, up from 32% four years ago.
重要的是,我們在這些貸款成長領域的聚焦,正自然地使我們的資產負債表更具資產敏感度。例如,截至季末,浮動利率貸款占生息資產的36%,高於四年前的32%。
Slide 12 provides a summary of our deposits and funding mix. Total average deposits grew 2.9% year-over-year and 2.2% sequentially. Growth was driven by another record quarter of consumer deposits, along with strong growth in relationship-based deposits in businesses like investment services. Importantly, we achieved growth while staying disciplined with respect to pricing. Deposit costs increased seven basis points sequentially, with approximately two basis points of impact from the September Fed rate hike. Notably, our total funding costs are up just one basis point quarter over quarter as our funding mix continues to improve.
第12頁提供我們存款與資金來源組合的摘要。總平均存款年增2.9%,季增2.2%。成長來自消費者存款再創紀錄的一季,以及投資服務等業務中以關係為基礎的存款強勁成長。重要的是,我們在維持定價紀律的同時仍達成成長。存款成本季增7個基點,其中約2個基點的影響來自9月聯準會升息。值得注意的是,隨著我們的資金組合持續改善,我們的總資金成本僅較上季上升1個基點。
Turning to slide 13. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis increased 5.6% year-over-year and 2.3% linked quarter. The increase was driven by continued relationship-based loan and deposit growth, an improving earning asset and funding mix, and ongoing benefits from fixed asset repricing. Net interest margin improved five basis points sequentially to 2.84%, driven by improving loan yields and fixed asset repricing benefits. We currently expect net interest margin to increase by a similar amount in the fourth quarter.
接著看第13頁。以完全應稅等值(FTE)基礎計算的淨利息收入年增5.6%,較前一季成長2.3%。成長主要由持續的關係型貸款與存款成長、生息資產與資金組合改善,以及固定資產重定價帶來的持續效益所驅動。淨利差季增5個基點至2.84%,主要受惠於貸款收益率改善及固定資產重定價效益。我們目前預期第四季淨利差將以相近幅度再度上升。
Slide 14 highlights fee revenue trends within non-interest income. Total fee income increased 14.9% year-over-year with broad-based strength across most fee categories. Capital markets growth of 69% year-over-year reflects a full quarter contribution from BTIG and approximately 10% growth across legacy capital markets.
第14頁重點呈現非利息收入中的手續費收入趨勢。總手續費收入年增14.9%,多數手續費類別普遍走強。資本市場年增69%,反映BTIG貢獻完整一季,以及既有資本市場業務約10%的成長。
Moving to slide 15. Non-interest expense increased 7.1% versus the prior year, reflecting BTIG and continued investment in growth initiatives, marketing, technology, as well as compensation associated with the strong revenue generation for this quarter. These increases were partially offset by ongoing expense discipline across the bank.
接著看第15頁。非利息費用較去年增加7.1%,反映BTIG以及對成長計畫、行銷、科技的持續投資,並包含本季強勁營收帶動的薪酬支出。上述增加部分被全行持續的費用控管所抵銷。
Slide 16 highlights the broad-based favorable trends we are seeing in credit quality. On the right side of the page, we highlight the longer-term evolution of our credit card portfolio. Card balances have increased at a brisk pace in recent years as our payments transformation takes hold. At the same time, FICO bands have marginally improved, and net charge-offs and delinquencies have trended lower. In short, we are growing the portfolio without compromising on underwriting standards.
第16頁強調我們在信用品質方面看到的廣泛正向趨勢。在頁面右側,我們呈現信用卡投資組合的長期演變。近年來,隨著我們的支付轉型逐步落地,卡片餘額以相當快的速度增加。同時,FICO 分數區間略有改善,且淨沖銷與逾期率呈下降趨勢。簡而言之,我們在不犧牲授信承作標準的情況下擴大投資組合。
Turning to capital on slide 17. As of September 30, our common equity Tier One capital ratio was 10.8%, stable compared to the prior quarter. Adjusting for AOCI, the CET1 ratio declines 30 basis points to 9.1%.
接著看第17頁的資本狀況。截至9月30日,我們的普通股權益第一類資本比率(CET1)為10.8%,與前一季相比保持穩定。若調整AOCI,CET1比率下降30個基點至9.1%。
On slide 18, we break out the components that drove the sequential changes in the AOCI adjusted CET1 and tangible common equity ratios this quarter. As it pertains to the adjusted CET1 ratio, strong earnings generation, net of dividends, added approximately 30 basis points of capital. This was offset by $12 billion of risk-weighted asset growth associated with heavy loan demand in the quarter and impact from our recently onboarded strategic small business partnership.
在第18頁,我們拆解本季推動AOCI調整後CET1與有形普通股權益比率(TCE)環比變動的各項因素。就調整後CET1比率而言,強勁的獲利能力(扣除股利後)約增加30個基點的資本。但這被本季強勁貸款需求帶動的120億美元風險加權資產成長,以及我們近期導入的策略性小型企業合作夥伴關係所帶來的影響所抵銷。
Additionally, the significant increase in Treasury rates and widening credit spreads during the third quarter impacted the ratio by an additional 40 basis points. Conversely, the tangible common equity ratio remained stable at 6.6% at quarter end. Strong earnings growth and lower ending assets offset the AOCI drag from higher rates.
此外,第三季公債利率大幅上升與信用利差擴大,使該比率再額外受到40個基點的影響。相對地,有形普通股權益比率於季末維持在6.6%不變。強勁的獲利成長與期末資產下降,抵銷了利率上升造成的AOCI拖累。
Despite a sharp move in rates this quarter, we maintained healthy capital levels and continued to have flexibility in how we manage the balance sheet. We expect our capital ratios to build from here, positioning us to resume share purchases over the next quarter or two.
儘管本季利率出現急劇變動,我們仍維持健康的資本水準,並持續保有管理資產負債表的彈性。我們預期資本比率將自此逐步回升,使我們得以在未來一到兩季恢復股票回購。
Turning to forward-looking guidance on slide 19 for the fourth quarter and full year 2026. For the fourth quarter, on a year-over-year basis, we expect net interest income growth of 6% to 7% on a fully taxable equivalent basis. Total fee revenue growth in the range of 13% to 14%, with roughly half of the growth coming from BTIG, and non-interest expense growth of approximately 8%, or closer to 4% excluding BTIG.
接著看第19頁,為第四季與2026全年提供前瞻性指引。就第四季而言,以年增基礎計算,我們預期以完全應稅等值(FTE)基礎的淨利息收入成長6%至7%。總手續費收入成長約13%至14%,其中約一半成長來自BTIG;非利息費用成長約8%,若排除BTIG則約接近4%。
For the full year 2026, we now expect total net revenue growth of 8% to 9% compared to the prior year, or 6% to 7% excluding BTIG. This is improved from our prior guidance range of 5% to 7%. We now expect to deliver approximately 300 basis points of positive operating leverage for the full year, or approximately 400 basis points excluding the impact from BTIG. This is up from prior guidance of 200 basis points and 300 basis points respectively.
就2026全年而言,我們目前預期總淨營收較去年成長8%至9%,若排除BTIG則為6%至7%。此較我們先前5%至7%的指引區間有所上修。我們目前預期全年可達成約300個基點的正向營運槓桿,若排除BTIG影響則約為400個基點;分別高於先前指引的200個基點與300個基點。
Moving to slide 20. This was another strong quarter for us, reflecting continued execution comfortably within all of our medium-term target ranges. We continue to see momentum across our business, which gives us confidence in our ability to build on these results and deliver consistent, sustainable returns over time.
接著看第20頁。這是我們又一個強勁的季度,反映我們持續穩健執行,且各項表現均舒適地落在中期目標區間內。我們在各項業務上持續看到動能,這讓我們對在此基礎上再接再厲、並隨時間推進提供一致且可持續的報酬更具信心。
Let me now hand it back to Gunjan for closing remarks.
接下來我把時間交回給Gunjan作結語。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, John.
謝謝你,John。
As we look to the end of 2026, we are executing well against the strategic priorities we outlined at the beginning of the year and seeing that progress translate into stronger performance across the bank. Our diversified business mix, customer-centric approach, and disciplined execution position us to deliver attractive returns and long-term shareholder value.
展望2026年底,我們正針對年初所提出的策略重點良好執行,並看到這些進展轉化為全行更強勁的表現。我們多元化的業務組合、以客戶為中心的方法,以及嚴謹的執行力,使我們有能力提供具吸引力的報酬與長期股東價值。
With that, we will now open the call for your questions.
接下來,我們將開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) John McDonald, Truist Securities.
(接線員指示)John McDonald,Truist Securities。
John McDonald - Analyst
John McDonald - Analyst
Gunjan mentioned the increased focus on growing net interest income and strengthening the margin. John, could you unpack some of the drivers of your NII outlook from here, including what you see ahead for loan growth and deposit trends?
Gunjan提到將更聚焦於提升淨利息收入並強化利差。John,你能否進一步拆解你們接下來對淨利息收入(NII)展望的幾項驅動因素,包括你對貸款成長與存款趨勢的後續看法?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Good morning, John. We are going to see similar themes in the fourth quarter that we just saw in the third quarter. Loans have been strong, and they remain strong from a pipeline standpoint, so we expect similar type growth there. Of course, as a reminder included in that, we have the Amazon small business card book that we get the full quarter impact as well. Deposits are performing well. We continue to see nice growth in our consumer franchise as well as small business, and we see continued trends there.
好的。早安,John。我們在第四季將會看到與第三季相似的主題。放款表現強勁,從案源管線的角度來看也仍然強勁,因此我們預期該部分將有類似的成長。當然,提醒一下,這其中也包含我們的 Amazon 小型企業卡組合在本季將反映完整一季的影響。存款表現良好。我們持續看到消費金融版圖以及小型企業都有不錯的成長,且相關趨勢仍在延續。
In terms of the net interest margin, we made the comment that margin should increase by a similar amount this next quarter, and that is going to be just aided by the funding and asset mix that we have. That is improving, as we have been talking about. There's a lot of momentum that we have, and that's reflected in our guide and what we discussed.
就淨利差而言,我們提到下個季度的利差應會以相近幅度上升,而這將主要受惠於我們的資金來源與資產組合配置。正如我們一直在談的,這些正在改善。我們有很強的動能,這也反映在我們的指引以及我們所討論的內容之中。
John McDonald - Analyst
John McDonald - Analyst
Just to follow up on that, in terms of the net interest margin drivers, could you give us a little feel for how rising rates impacts it? Maybe an update on fixed asset reprice and your deposit beta assumptions.
延續剛才的問題,就淨利差的驅動因素而言,你們能否稍微說明一下升息對它的影響?也請更新一下固定利率資產的重訂價情況,以及你們對存款 beta 的假設。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. We aim to be as neutral as we can be from an interest rate risk perspective. However, given this environment, we have been shifting more into asset sensitivity, and you're starting to see that come through in terms of loans. We've been shifting more into C&I, commercial real estate, and card. All predominantly floating rate assets, as you know. In the investment portfolio, that has been coming down, and we've been doing more in cash. So we have been shifting there a bit.
當然。我們的目標是從利率風險的角度,盡可能維持中性。不過,在目前的環境下,我們已經逐步轉向更偏資產敏感(asset sensitive),而你也開始在放款端看到這個效果。我們更多轉向 C&I(商業與工業貸款)、商用不動產,以及信用卡。如你所知,這些大多是浮動利率資產。在投資組合方面,規模一直在下降,而我們在現金部位的配置增加。因此我們在那邊也做了一些調整。
In terms of -- I think you asked about fixed asset repricing. I would say there that we continue to see about $10 billion or so per quarter of fixed rate assets that reprice, whether that's in the securities book or in the loan book. And that's coming on probably at about 125 basis point improvement or so.
至於——我想你問的是固定利率資產的重訂價。我會說,我們仍然看到每季大約有 100 億美元左右的固定利率資產會重訂價,不論是在證券投資組合或放款組合。而重訂價後大概帶來約 125 個基點左右的改善。
That's improved a little bit just because of the backup in rates as we've seen. Then finally, you asked about deposit betas. We think that betas pick up right where they left off from the last rate hike. So we're assuming about a 50% or so deposit beta to start out with and likely to continue as we see a couple of hikes kind of coming up in our forecast. So those are kind of the main points.
由於我們看到利率上行(backup in rates),這個改善幅度又略微提高了一些。最後,你問到存款 beta。我們認為 beta 會從上一次升息結束時的水準接續上升。因此我們一開始假設存款 beta 約 50% 左右,並且在我們預測中接下來還會有幾次升息的情況下,可能會持續維持。以上大概就是重點。
Operator
Operator
Scott Siefers, TD Cowen.
Scott Siefers,TD Cowen。
R. Scott Siefers - Equity Analyst
R. Scott Siefers - Equity Analyst
Hey. I guess first one, just sort of a top level one. It ended up being a much better year. I think we knew it was going to be a good year from the standpoint of positive operating leverage. It looks like it is coming in even better than expected. I guess as you think about things looking ahead, maybe just sort of top-level thoughts on balance between profitability improvement, investment, just sort of top level how you are thinking about those things.
嗨。我想先問一個比較宏觀的問題。結果這一年表現比預期好很多。我想我們原本就知道,從正向營運槓桿的角度來看,這會是個好年。看起來實際結果甚至比預期更好。我想請教你們展望未來時,對於獲利能力改善與投資之間的平衡,有哪些較高層次的想法?也就是你們整體上如何看待這些事情。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah. Sure, Scott. From our seat, obviously, we had strong growth in revenue, and that has been increasing and gaining momentum as the years come on. That is going to be the fundamental driver for why the increase in operating leverage this year from that 200 basis points now up to 300 basis points. We obviously have been onboarding a lot of revenue with the Amazon card book and BTIG coming online. That is north of $1 billion of revenue we have onboarded.
是的。當然,Scott。就我們的角度來看,營收成長強勁,而且隨著年度推進持續增加並累積動能。這將是今年營運槓桿提升的根本驅動因素,使其從 200 個基點提高到現在的 300 個基點。我們顯然透過 Amazon 卡組合以及 BTIG 上線,導入了大量營收。我們導入的營收超過 10 億美元。
We signaled this at the beginning of the year. We said that operating leverage, we wanted to be more of a driver from revenue growth because we know we can manage the expense side, and we have a lot of leverage to do that. As we look forward, and we are early in the budget process, so we are not giving any guidance. We anticipate operating leverage next year, just kind of given similar drivers that we are seeing this year.
我們在年初就已經釋出這個訊號。我們說過,希望營運槓桿更多由營收成長來驅動,因為我們知道費用端是可以管理的,而且我們在那方面有很大的槓桿可以運用。展望未來,我們目前仍在預算流程的早期階段,因此不提供任何指引。但考量到今年看到的類似驅動因素,我們預期明年仍會有營運槓桿。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Scott, I would just add that we have runway on productivity initiatives. As you know, we have materially invested in our digital capabilities over five years, and that just delivers ongoing productivity, and we continue to be very intentional about how much we spend on technology investments. All in all, I would say it's not a trade-off. We don't think about operating leverage for shareholders or investing into the business. The business model is capable of generating both of them in balance.
Scott,我補充一下,我們在生產力提升計畫上仍有很大的發揮空間。如你所知,過去五年我們在數位能力上投入相當多,而這會持續帶來生產力提升;同時,我們也一直非常有意識地控管科技投資的支出規模。整體而言,我會說這不是取捨問題。我們不會把為股東創造營運槓桿與對業務投資視為二選一。我們的商業模式有能力在兩者之間取得平衡並同時產生。
R. Scott Siefers - Equity Analyst
R. Scott Siefers - Equity Analyst
Perfect. Okay. Thank you for that color. John, just maybe on the repurchase comment. There's been a lot of focus following just sort of the pause that you disclosed a month or so ago. Sounds like you'll restart either this quarter or next quarter. Maybe just thoughts on kind of main factors you're thinking of as you anticipate returning to repurchase and maybe just sort of balance between common equity Tier One build, TCE considerations, et cetera.
很好。好的,謝謝你提供這些補充說明。John,再請教一下回購的評論。在你們大約一個月前揭露暫停之後,市場對此有很多關注。聽起來你們會在本季或下季重啟。能否談談你們在預期恢復回購時主要考量的因素,以及普通股權益第一類資本(CET1)累積、TCE(有形普通股權益)等之間的平衡?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Yeah, so maybe just to recap, the third quarter had a lot of unique events in it for us. We had strong loan growth. We obviously had the Amazon book that added some capital demands. Then obviously the large rate move, which we all saw, of course. But for us, given our unique position and just our prudent nature, we decided to pause. But we have a high degree of confidence in our ability to generate capital. This quarter, after dividend distribution, we generated 33 basis points of capital. So we know we can build that back very quickly. I would just say what we're looking for this quarter is we're looking at loan demand. Where does that actually end up shaking out? Obviously, we believe that there will be growth, as I mentioned in a previous comment. But interest rates, we're watching that very closely.
當然。是的,我先簡單回顧一下,第三季對我們而言有不少特殊事件。我們的放款成長強勁。顯然 Amazon 組合也帶來了一些資本需求。再加上我們都看到的那次大幅度利率變動。但就我們而言,基於我們的特殊狀況以及一貫審慎的作風,我們決定先暫停。不過,我們對自身產生資本的能力有高度信心。本季在股利發放之後,我們仍產生了 33 個基點的資本。因此我們知道可以很快把資本再累積回來。我會說,我們本季在觀察的是放款需求。實際上最後會落在什麼水準?如我先前提到的,我們相信仍會有成長。但我們也會非常密切關注利率走勢。
Then obviously you have the added component of regulation. We anticipate some new rules coming down. So a combination of all that we are watching, and that will be the driver of whether it's this quarter or next. But in the meantime, we obviously are very much committed to the 70% to 75% payout from a distribution standpoint.
另外,還有監管這個新增的因素。我們預期會有一些新規則發布。因此我們會綜合觀察上述因素,這也將決定是本季還是下季重啟。但同時,我們顯然仍非常致力於從股利與回購等分配角度維持 70% 到 75% 的配發率。
Operator
Operator
Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.
Manan Gosalia,Morgan Stanley。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
I wanted to ask on commercial loan balances. The average loan balances were essentially flat sequentially. And I think utilization rates declined slightly. Can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of underlying corporate borrowing demand? Given that rates were expected to go up, most of your clients borrow on the short end of the curve. Is there some reduction in demand overall? Or in terms of the slowdown this quarter, was any of that related to capital levels and the ability to deploy capital, given the shift in the long end of the curve?
我想請教商業放款餘額。平均放款餘額相較前一季基本持平。而我認為動用率(utilization rates)也小幅下降。你們能否談談在企業借款需求的基本面上看到什麼?考量到市場預期利率會上升,你們大多數客戶是在殖利率曲線短端借款。整體需求是否有一些下降?或者就本季放緩而言,其中是否有任何部分與資本水準、以及在殖利率曲線長端變動下部署資本的能力有關?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Thanks, Manan. What I would say is that the underlying core C&I growth was very healthy and strong. We did have some runoff in some balances related to more in that NDFI space. Some of this is just new deals coming to market, didn't hurdle areas, and we've been more thoughtful on that of late. That's really the reason that you see the C&I component being pretty flat on a linked quarter basis. We do anticipate that to increase as we look into the fourth quarter. The pipelines remain robust, and it's in all the areas that we've talked about in terms of food and beverage, and energy, and technology. Those are obviously very strong demand for loans at this point. Those are kind of the core things I'd say on the C&I line.
當然。謝謝你,Manan。我想說的是,底層核心的商業與工業(C&I)成長非常健康且強勁。我們確實在一些與非存款金融機構(NDFI)領域相關的餘額上出現了些許流失。其中一部分只是因為有新案子進入市場,但未能達到我們的門檻要求,而我們近期在這方面也更為審慎。這就是你看到 C&I 組成在連續季度(linked quarter)基礎上相當持平的主要原因。我們預期隨著進入第四季,這會有所增加。案源管線仍然強勁,涵蓋我們談過的各個領域,包括食品與飲料、能源以及科技。這些領域目前顯然都有非常強勁的貸款需求。以上大概就是我對 C&I 這條線的核心看法。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Manan, I would add that the only place we've seen a little slowdown is commercial real estate, and residential mortgage continues to be very muted. Otherwise, C&I loan demand is quite robust and broad-based.
Manan,我補充一下:我們唯一看到稍微放緩的地方是商用不動產,而住宅房貸仍然非常低迷。除此之外,C&I 貸款需求相當強勁且分布廣泛。
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Manan Gosalia - Analyst
Got it. Can you unpack those comments you just made on the capital side a little bit more? You mentioned the potential for regulators to change the tailoring rules and how that might give you some flexibility. I guess, are you saying that if the 10-year kind of stays where it is, plus you get some more color from the regulators on which way they're taking it, that you can start buybacks as soon as the fourth quarter?
了解。你能否把你剛才在資本面提到的評論再多拆解一點?你提到監管機構可能會調整分級(tailoring)規則,以及這可能會給你一些彈性。我想問的是,你是不是在說:如果 10 年期利率大致維持在目前水準,再加上監管機構對其方向提供更多訊息,你們最快在第四季就可以開始回購?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah, that's a component. Obviously, we're all anxious for Basel III endgame. We've signaled that that's about a 5% or so improvement to the RWA. That's from the proposal. Things can change, so we need to see that. The tailoring comments have been in the news, and so, we're watching for that to see if anything comes online in that regard. Those are incremental pieces of information, but also, it's going to be rates and RWA/loan growth. Those are the three main components, and we'll clearly update you. It's clear we'll be starting that back up, and we'll glide back up into that 70% to 75%. As we just mentioned, we have a high degree of confidence in our capital build.
是的,那是其中一個因素。顯然,我們都很期待巴塞爾協議 III 最終方案(Basel III endgame)。我們已經表明,依照提案內容,這大約能讓風險加權資產(RWA)改善約 5% 左右。事情仍可能改變,所以我們需要看到最終結果。關於分級(tailoring)的評論最近也出現在新聞中,因此我們也在關注是否會有相關措施落地。這些都是增量資訊,但同時也取決於利率以及 RWA/貸款成長。這三項是主要構成因素,我們也會清楚地向各位更新。很明確的是,我們會重新啟動,並逐步回到 70% 到 75% 的水準。如同我們剛提到的,我們對資本累積有高度信心。
Operator
Operator
Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.
Ebrahim Poonawala,美國銀行(Bank of America)。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
I guess maybe this is the first question. Slide six, where you have the national footprint. Just talk to us in terms of what the strategy around the client centers is. Obviously, we've seen many of your peers announce significant branch expansion in new markets. Is this a precursor to adding a ton of branches, or is this an indication that you don't see a ton of value adding hundreds of branches, and the client centers allows you to achieve and reach the same outcomes? Would love just your strategic sort of thought process behind that.
我想這可能是第一個問題。第六頁投影片,你們展示了全國版圖。請談談你們圍繞客戶中心(client centers)的策略是什麼。顯然,我們看到你們許多同業宣布在新市場大幅擴張分行。這是否是要新增大量分行的前奏?或者這是否表示你們認為新增數百家分行的價值不大,而客戶中心能讓你們達成並觸及相同的成果?很希望聽聽你們背後的策略思考。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Ebrahim. I will just start by saying we do see value in branches, and we do see them as anchoring very high-quality customer relationships. Just to back up a little bit, we had been on a journey for really a decade to transform our branch network from what used to be a lot of small tier three service outlets to more advice hubs with most of our products being represented there. That was a renovation strategy that is finishing up now, and we are beginning to lean into new branches.
早安,Ebrahim。我先說,我們確實看得到分行的價值,也認為分行能夠鞏固非常高品質的客戶關係。稍微回顧一下,我們其實花了將近十年的時間,將分行網路從過去許多小型、第三層級的服務據點,轉型為以諮詢為核心的樞紐,並在那裡呈現我們大多數的產品。這項翻新策略現在接近完成,我們也開始更積極投入新分行。
We have shared that our branch investment has increased from $200 million or thereabouts on average to $300 million, which is what we expect to do going forward. Those will be more new branches. Our first phase of that work is to densify within our own footprint.
我們也分享過,我們的分行投資已從平均約 2 億美元提高到 3 億美元,這也是我們未來預期會持續的水準。其中會有更多是新分行。我們這項工作的第一階段,是在我們既有版圖內提高密度。
As you see from the blue dots, we are in a vast territory, and we have real meaningful opportunity to get to 8% to 10% branch share in those markets within our footprint that have high household formation rates. There, our brand is already known. Our operations are already established, and the return is very high. It is fully our expectation that over time we will inch out from that footprint to other branches. The client centers, on the other hand, are an interim answer that is faster for us to establish national presence. This is not a new strategy.
從藍點你可以看到,我們覆蓋的區域非常廣,而在我們版圖內、家庭戶數形成率較高的市場,我們有非常實質的機會把分行市占提升到 8% 到 10%。在那些地方,我們的品牌已經為人所知。我們的營運也已經建立完成,且報酬率非常高。我們完全預期,隨著時間推進,我們會逐步從這個版圖向外延伸到其他地區設立分行。另一方面,客戶中心則是一個過渡性的解決方案,能讓我們更快建立全國性的存在感。這不是一個新策略。
Our commercial teams, our wealth teams, our mortgage teams, and our commercial real estate teams have been operating out of a footprint. The Northeast is a big site for capital markets type of businesses as well. What we have done more recently is to say small business can also operate out of client centers. The strategy is both, and it is a matter of sequencing.
我們的商業團隊、財富管理團隊、房貸團隊,以及商用不動產團隊,一直都是在既有版圖內運作。東北部也是資本市場類業務的重要據點。我們近期做得更多的是:認為小型企業也可以透過客戶中心來運作。策略是兩者並行,差別在於推進的先後順序。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Got it. I guess safe to say, over time, those red dots, which feel quite lonely, will get accompanied by more blue dots, I guess.
了解。我想可以說,隨著時間推進,那些看起來相當孤單的紅點,應該會有更多藍點來作伴吧。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
We hope to make them less lonely, Ebrahim. Yes. Thank you.
我們希望讓它們不再那麼孤單,Ebrahim。是的。謝謝。
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst
Understood. Just one separate question on the broad-based C&I growth. Obviously, even in the last week, your markets are once again questioning the AI CapEx build-out. To the extent you have visibility, just talk to us, when you think about broad-based C&I growth, how much of that are you able to see is a second, third derivative of the data center build-out versus just other industries we are seeing growth which may be less connected to the AI CapEx cycle? Thank you.
明白。另外一個問題,關於廣泛性的 C&I 成長。顯然,即使在過去一週,你們的市場又再次在質疑 AI 資本支出(CapEx)擴張的建置。在你們可見的範圍內,談到廣泛性的 C&I 成長時,你們能觀察到其中有多少是資料中心建置的第二、第三層衍生效應,相較於我們看到的其他產業成長(可能與 AI CapEx 循環關聯較小)?謝謝。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Thanks, Ebrahim. Yes. It's a topic that comes up frequently for us. We are looking to see if there's clues as to how much of growth and credit impact there is related to AI. Obviously, you have adjacent sectors like energy and telecom and things like that, areas that are seeing benefit in loan growth. But then there's other areas that are more broad-based that are beyond that in terms of retail and food and beverage, insurance, and all these other sorts of things. So it is broad-based.
謝謝你,Ebrahim。是的,這是我們經常被問到的話題。我們也在觀察是否有線索能判斷有多少成長與信用影響是與 AI 相關。顯然,你有一些相鄰產業,例如能源、電信等,這些領域的貸款成長正在受惠。但也有其他更廣泛、超出該範疇的領域,例如零售、食品與飲料、保險,以及其他各式各樣的產業。所以它確實是廣泛性的。
I would actually add on top of that small business with SBA loans and things like that. There's a lot of momentum in the business community to want to grow. So that is on our mindset right now, and so we're watching for that, but it is a topic we certainly look at.
我還想補充,小型企業這一塊也包含 SBA 貸款等。商業社群對於擴張成長有很強的動能。因此這也是我們目前關注的重點,我們會持續觀察,但這確實是我們一定會檢視的議題。
Operator
Operator
John Pancari, Evercore ISI.
John Pancari,Evercore ISI。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Morning. I just want to see if you can maybe unpack a little bit of the trends you're seeing within the fee income space, particularly around treasury management and merchant processing and corporate payments. Just some of the business color that you're seeing in terms of demand as well as you look going into 2027, what's a good reasonable pace of growth as you continue to emphasize those businesses? And maybe similar color around the underlying pipeline that you're seeing in the capital market side.
早安。我想請您再多拆解一下您在手續費收入領域看到的趨勢,特別是財資管理、商戶收單處理以及企業支付。就您觀察到的需求面業務動能而言,並且展望到2027年,在您持續強調這些業務的情況下,合理的成長步調應該是什麼?另外,也想請您就資本市場端您看到的基礎案源管線提供類似的說明。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Yeah, a couple of things there. I'll start on the treasury management and corporate payment side. Obviously saw some very strong growth on that side of the equation. Obviously on the corporate payment side, we saw about 19% year-on-year growth. Most of that is new business as well as the spending from corporates and government is up quite a bit from last year at this time.
當然。是的,這裡有幾點。我先從財資管理與企業支付這一塊談起。很明顯我們在這一端看到非常強勁的成長。在企業支付方面,我們看到約19%的年增率。其中大多來自新業務,同時企業與政府端的支出也較去年同期大幅增加。
Recall this time last year, there was the impacts of tariffs and all that sort of thing. We've lapped all that, and there's good growth there. There's a little bit of fuel spend as well in there, but that's pretty nominal in terms of the growth rate. We do expect continued growth in the CPS, or corporate payments side of the equation.
回想去年這個時候,還受到關稅等因素的影響。我們已經度過了那段影響期,目前成長表現良好。其中也包含一些燃料支出,但就成長率的貢獻而言相當有限。我們確實預期在CPS(企業支付)這一端仍會持續成長。
The treasury management side is continuing to see nice growth in that mid-single digit area. It's an important business. We've been making a lot of investments of late. We are doing a lot in terms of the payables and digital channels and capabilities. Going forward, we have high hopes in these two areas for sure.
財資管理這一端則持續在中個位數區間呈現不錯的成長。這是一項重要的業務。我們最近也投入了大量投資。我們在應付帳款、數位通路與能力建置方面做了很多工作。展望未來,我們對這兩個領域都抱持很高的期待。
On the capital market side, we continue to see strong growth there into the next quarter. Obviously, we had a very strong growth of 69% or so this quarter. BTIG will continue to be a strong component of that at about $200 million or so. Our core, FICC or legacy capital markets led by commodities, foreign exchange, and Impact Finance are really showing some nice growth, and that's going to help us get more in the double-digit type of growth on a year-over-year basis. We feel very good about those areas.
至於資本市場方面,我們持續看到強勁成長延續到下一季。本季我們的成長非常強勁,大約是69%左右。BTIG仍將是其中的重要組成,約2億美元左右。我們的核心FICC(固定收益、外匯與商品)或傳統資本市場業務,在商品、外匯以及影響力金融(Impact Finance)的帶動下,確實展現不錯的成長,這將有助於我們在年增率上達到更偏雙位數的成長。我們對這些領域的表現感到非常有信心。
John Pancari - Analyst
John Pancari - Analyst
Okay. Thanks, John. That's helpful. On the margin side, just looking for a little bit more color, just what you're seeing in terms of competition. I heard you on the deposit beta commentary. What are you seeing there on deposit pricing in terms of market trends and how that's influencing your actions on the deposit side?
了解。謝謝你,John,這很有幫助。在利差方面,我想再多了解一些你對競爭態勢的觀察。我聽到你提到存款beta的評論。就市場趨勢而言,你在存款定價上看到什麼變化?這又如何影響你們在存款端的作法?
Similarly on the loan side, I know you mentioned a little earlier that within the C&I book, a couple of deals didn't hurdle, but you expect to pick up. What are you seeing, I guess, in terms of pressures on spreads and loan pricing on the lending side? Thanks.
同樣在放款端,我知道你稍早提到在C&I(商業與工業)放款組合裡,有幾筆案子沒有達到門檻,但你預期之後會回升。那麼在放款端,你看到利差壓力與放款定價方面有哪些情況?謝謝。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. The answer is going to be pretty boring. We're not seeing a whole lot of change in both deposit and the loan side of the equation from a pricing standpoint. The post hike, the pricing that we are seeing is very consistent with what you would expect. There's nothing out of the ordinary.
當然。答案可能會有點無聊。從定價角度來看,我們在存款端與放款端都沒有看到太多變化。在升息之後,我們看到的定價走勢非常符合一般預期。沒有任何異常。
I would say similar on the loan side. Loan spreads by and large tend to be pretty stable, and it's competitive, of course, but it's manageable. On the C&I side of the equation, as I just mentioned, some of those things just didn't hurdle. Some of that is a little bit more we've been more prescriptive with the businesses in terms of making sure that things hurdle. So it's a little bit of a dial turn for us that occurred. But we see broad-based growth in the C&I portfolio.
放款端也是類似情況。整體而言,放款利差大致相當穩定;當然競爭存在,但仍在可控範圍。在C&I這一端,如我剛提到的,有些案子就是沒有達到門檻。其中一部分原因是我們在確保案子能達到門檻方面,對各業務線採取了更具指導性的做法。因此對我們而言,這算是做了一點調整。但我們仍看到C&I投組呈現廣泛性的成長。
Operator
Operator
Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.
Ken Usdin,Autonomous Research。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Hey, John, can I just ask you to just walk through a couple more things on fees? So obviously the guide implies sequentially lower fees for the fourth quarter, and I know a lot of that is seasonal. Can you just kind of remind us what usually happens in the payments lines? Does capital markets hold up at the third quarter level? I know you're saying $200 million of BTIG versus $226 million. Then can you size the amount of equity gains that were in the other line, and what that line should usually look like? Thanks.
嗨,John,我可以再請你針對手續費多說幾點嗎?指引顯示第四季的手續費將較前一季下降,我知道其中很多是季節性因素。你能否提醒我們,支付相關業務線通常會出現什麼情況?資本市場能否維持在第三季的水準?我知道你提到BTIG約2億美元,相較於2.26億美元。另外,你能否量化一下「其他」那一項裡的股權收益有多少?以及那一項通常應該呈現什麼樣的水準?謝謝。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Yeah. So, the fourth quarter from a year-over-year growth standpoint is going to look a lot like the third quarter, with a couple of exceptions which explains the slightly down growth rate, although it's still very, very strong. Mortgage is going to be impacted by higher rates. So we anticipate there to be more of a limited or low year-on-year growth, if any. Then other revenue, we did have some gains that were more unique to this quarter. So our other revenue tends to be in that $125 million-$150 million range. So we anticipate that to kind of normalize into that.
當然。是的,從年增率的角度來看,第四季看起來會很像第三季,但有幾個例外,這也解釋了成長率為何會略微下滑,儘管仍然非常、非常強勁。房貸業務會受到較高利率的影響。因此我們預期年增將更為有限,甚至可能沒有成長。另外在其他收入方面,本季確實有一些較為特殊的一次性收益。我們的其他收入通常落在1.25億至1.5億美元區間。因此我們預期它會回歸並正常化到該區間。
So other than that, I think things like corporate trust continues to be very strong. I talked about capital markets and many of the payments lines. We see strong growth in corporate as well as retail cards. Merchant will probably be still in that 0% area for the next couple of quarters, as we've talked about. Then all the other areas are about as expected. So it's shaping up to be a lot of momentum for us on the fee side of the equation.
除此之外,我認為像是公司信託(corporate trust)仍然非常強勁。我也談到了資本市場以及多條支付業務線。我們看到企業卡與零售卡都有強勁成長。如同我們先前談過的,商戶收單接下來幾季可能仍會在0%左右的區間。其他各項則大致符合預期。因此在手續費這一端,我們的動能正在持續累積。
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Ken Usdin - Analyst
Perfect. Thanks, John. Then secondly, with the NIM up five this quarter, and you're saying up about the same amount, that's a 2.90% exit. Can you just talk about, I know balance sheet size and mix will be an important part of this answer, but your comments previously about getting to a 3% NIM in 2027, can you talk about just how that looks and what needs to happen in terms of the mix and size of the balance sheet, vis-a-vis prior questions on rates and such?
很好。謝謝,John。第二個問題,本季NIM(淨利差)上升5個基點,而你也表示接下來大概會上升相近幅度,這代表退出水準約2.90%。我知道資產負債表的規模與組合會是重要因素,但你先前提到在2027年達到3% NIM的目標;你能否談談這個路徑會是什麼樣子?以及相對於先前關於利率等問題,在資產負債表的組合與規模方面需要發生哪些變化?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah. Ken, we continue to see a path on the 3% NIM at some point in 2027. You are starting to see that thesis play out, as we have talked about. It is a constant formula of just consistent asset repricing. As I just mentioned, obviously the asset and funding mix is continuing to improve, and then we are just being thoughtful in terms of depositor acquisition versus cost.
是的,Ken,我們仍然看到在2027年的某個時間點達到3% NIM的路徑。如同我們先前談過的,你開始看到這個論點正在逐步實現。這是一個持續性的公式:資產端穩定地進行重訂價。另外,如我剛提到的,資產與資金來源的組合也在持續改善;同時我們在存款客戶獲取與成本之間也會審慎拿捏。
So that is the formula and the ingredients that we need to continue to do what we are doing on the NIM side. Obviously the curve and deposit competition may have something to say about that in the end, but we have a lot to like about in terms of the trajectory we are making on that path. So we feel good about it.
因此,這就是我們在淨利差(NIM)面向要持續推進、延續目前作法所需的公式與要素。顯然,殖利率曲線與存款競爭最終可能會對此產生影響,但就我們在這條路徑上所呈現的走勢而言,有很多值得肯定之處。所以我們對此感覺良好。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I will add one thing, that we are very disciplined about improving both the deposit mix and the loan mix, which is helping the NIM situation. For the fourth quarter, we have the full quarter impact of the Amazon deal, which is a nice tailwind. But we are continuing to focus on credit card receivables, which are growing very well, the C&I loan and CRE. As that becomes a bigger part of our loan book and deposits become more relationship-oriented, it gives us strengthening NIM and NII growth for some time.
我再補充一點:我們在改善存款結構與放款結構方面非常自律,這正在幫助NIM的表現。第四季我們將完整反映與亞馬遜合作案的整季影響,這是一股不錯的順風。但我們仍持續聚焦於信用卡應收款(成長非常好)、商業與工業(C&I)放款以及商用不動產(CRE)。隨著這些項目在我們的放款組合中占比提高、而存款也更偏向關係型,將在一段時間內帶來NIM走強與淨利息收入(NII)成長。
Operator
Operator
Chris McGratty, KBW.
Chris McGratty,KBW。
Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst
Thanks. Maybe a question on credit, maybe the higher rate environment. Any comments from the team on the impact you've seen so far on consumer, and also health of the commercial customer? I know you talked about moving some of the NDFI lending out in the quarter.
謝謝。我想問一個關於信用的問題,可能與高利率環境有關。團隊能否評論一下,到目前為止你們看到對消費者的影響,以及商業客戶的健康狀況?我知道你們提到本季把部分NDFI放款移出去了。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Morning, Chris. On the credit side, we haven't really seen a whole lot of change in that. It's obviously a watch item when we think about the impacts of higher rates. Right now, we're not seeing anything on the consumer side. Spend levels are high. Employment is strong. There just continues to be strong patterns there despite sentiment and things of that variety.
當然。早安,Chris。在信用面向,我們其實沒有看到太多變化。當我們思考高利率的影響時,這顯然是需要關注的事項。目前在消費者端,我們沒有看到任何異常。支出水準仍然很高。就業依然強勁。儘管情緒面與諸如此類的因素存在,但整體模式仍持續展現強勁。
On the commercial side, corporates and commercial clients are well managed. They have strong balance sheets. They've been going through a lot over the last several years, and they've been very nimble. I think the area we are watching, obviously, is going to be in the commercial real estate side. You always want to watch when rates go up. Obviously when we underwrite, we build in a cushion for a rate move. It's well understood and managed. But it's going to be an area that we watch, but nothing at this point to call out.
在商業端,企業與商業客戶的經營管理良好。他們的資產負債表很強健。過去幾年他們經歷了很多挑戰,也一直非常靈活應對。我認為我們正在關注的領域,顯然會是在商用不動產(CRE)。當利率上升時,你總是會想要特別留意。當然,在我們承作授信(underwrite)時,會為利率變動預留緩衝。這點大家都很清楚,也有妥善管理。因此這會是我們持續觀察的領域,但目前沒有特別需要點出的事項。
Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Equity Analyst
Okay. Thanks, John. I think I may have asked this in prior quarters, but just in the broader balance sheet optimization discussion today with where rates have moved and the growth that's occurred, anything additionally that might be ripe for optimization, whether it be the funding base, perhaps syndicating more production into the capital markets for a quarter or two? Anything we should be aware of there? Thanks.
好的。謝謝你,John。我想我在前幾季可能問過這個問題,但就今天更廣泛的資產負債表最佳化討論而言,隨著利率變動以及成長發生,是否還有其他可能適合進一步最佳化的地方?例如資金來源結構,或是把更多承作量在一兩季內透過資本市場做聯貸/分銷?有沒有我們需要留意的事項?謝謝。
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah. I think we're doing the actions, and I would just anticipate continued action from us. In this environment, you want to be very active in your management of the balance sheet. I've already mentioned several of those things that we've done.
是的。我認為我們正在採取相關行動,而且我也預期我們會持續採取行動。在這樣的環境下,你會希望在資產負債表管理上非常積極。我先前已提到我們做過的幾項措施。
Maybe some other things you've probably noticed, you've seen that our long-term debt fell a couple billion dollars, as well as the investment portfolio. We did repay some home loan bank advances that were long-term debt, but really there wasn't much maturity left in them. As I mentioned, the investment portfolio, we've been lowering that amount and going more into cash. We're just doing a lot of things to kind of optimize the balance sheet for the rate environment that we're entering, and we feel good about taking action as needed.
另外一些你可能也注意到了:我們的長期負債下降了約數十億美元,投資組合也同樣縮減。我們確實償還了一些房貸銀行(Home Loan Bank)的預支款(advances),那屬於長期負債,但其實剩餘到期時間已不多。如我所提到的,投資組合方面,我們一直在降低規模並提高現金部位。我們正在做很多事情,來因應即將進入的利率環境、對資產負債表進行最佳化;我們也對在需要時採取行動感到有信心。
Operator
Operator
Gerard Cassidy, RBC.
Gerard Cassidy,RBC。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Back in your Investor Day, Gunjan, I guess it was the fall of 2024, you talked a lot about interconnectedness. When you look at your slide five on the BTIG, you talk about deepening the client base. Can you share with us how that opportunity for the cross-sell into your existing client base for BTIG products and vice versa, how is that proceeding and what are the opportunities that you folks see for growing that business through that interconnectedness?
在你們的投資人日(Investor Day)上,Gunjan,我想是在2024年秋季,你談了很多「互聯性」(interconnectedness)。當你看BTIG簡報的第5頁時,你提到深化客戶基礎。你能否和我們分享一下:將BTIG產品交叉銷售給既有客戶、以及反向把你們的產品提供給BTIG客戶,這個機會目前進展如何?你們看到透過這種互聯性來成長該業務的機會有哪些?
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Gerard. It's actually gone very well. As you know, when we did the BTIG deal, the biggest questions were around cultural fit, and the chemistry is very good, and the substantive ability to deepen relationships is very good. As you know, we deploy a very significant balance sheet to our corporate relationships.
謝謝你,Gerard。其實進展得非常好。如你所知,我們做BTIG交易時,最大的問題在於文化契合度,而目前的化學反應非常好,深化關係的實質能力也非常強。如你所知,我們在企業關係上投入了相當可觀的資產負債表資源。
Having more product to get your fair share of fee revenue is an important part of the interconnected pieces, and it's coming through very nicely. It's also been very encouraging to see it on the other side. We have developed a very sizable book in leveraged ETFs, and a lot of the trading opportunity that comes from that helps BTIG too. We expect that this will be a very good deal for us, and we are very confident in getting the combined capital markets business to about 10% of total net revenue or more over time. That completes our product set.
擁有更多產品、以取得應得的手續費收入占比,是互聯性的重要一環,而這點正非常順利地展現成果。同時,在另一端看到的情況也令人振奮。我們已建立起相當可觀的槓桿型ETF業務組合,而由此帶來的大量交易機會也能幫助BTIG。我們預期這將是一筆對我們非常有利的交易,並且對於隨時間推進,將合併後的資本市場業務提升至占總淨營收約10%或更高,充滿信心。這也補齊了我們的產品版圖。
I will also answer a broader question on interconnectivity, which is really playing out with deposits right now. There is a lot of discussion around deposit costs, deposit betas, and the Smartly product that we launched about two years back now, just around the Investor Day, connects our banking products to our credit card products and allows a person to optimize their card rewards based on their deposit relationships. That product has been very successful for us.
我也想更廣泛地回答一下互聯性的問題,因為它目前在存款方面正真實地發揮作用。市場對存款成本、存款beta,以及我們大約兩年前、就在投資人日前後推出的Smartly產品有很多討論;該產品把我們的銀行產品與信用卡產品連結起來,讓客戶能依其存款關係來最佳化信用卡回饋。這個產品對我們非常成功。
You are seeing the funding mix improvements based on that, and that is exactly the pieces we are taking now to small business. This theme of interconnectedness is very present in the company. It takes incentive changes, some changes to org structures, some development of skill sets, but we have had a lot of momentum there and will continue to be a very big part of our strategy even into next year.
你也看到資金來源結構因此改善,而這正是我們現在要帶到小型企業端的做法。「互聯性」這個主題在公司內非常鮮明。這需要調整激勵機制、對組織架構做一些改變、並培養一些技能組合,但我們在這方面已累積了很大的動能,且即使到明年,它仍將是我們策略中非常重要的一部分。
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Gerard Cassidy - Analyst
Very good. As a follow-up, obviously maybe you can update us since you have been very active in doing some bolt-on acquisitions, just as BTIG, for example, as well as the portfolio acquisition. Where are you guys standing now in terms of either more bolt-on acquisitions as you look out into the future or possibly even a depository acquisition? Thank you.
非常好。追問一下:你們一直很積極進行一些補強型併購(bolt-on acquisitions),例如BTIG,以及投資組合收購。展望未來,你們目前在更多補強型併購、或甚至存款機構(depository)併購方面,現在的立場如何?謝謝。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Our point of view remains consistent. We like bolt-on acquisitions. We are good at it, and they give us local scale and products. We do not think of them as fundamentally different from investing organically into our business. On depository acquisition, we find our organic strategies to have compelling strategic, financial, and execution characteristics, and we are very focused on that part of the strategy and have a lot of momentum there.
我們的觀點仍然一致。我們喜歡補強型併購。我們很擅長這件事,它們能帶來在地規模與產品能力。我們不認為這與對業務進行有機投資在本質上有什麼不同。至於存款機構併購,我們認為有機策略在策略面、財務面與執行面都很具吸引力;我們非常專注於這部分策略,且在這方面已有很強的動能。
Operator
Operator
Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.
Mike Mayo,富國銀行。
Mike Mayo - Analyst
Mike Mayo - Analyst
Hi. You increased your guide for operating leverage this year by 100 basis points, and I think you said one reason related to AI. That is a little surprising because it is hard for banks to actually quantify benefits, and banks usually talk about AI benefits in more general terms and productivity and stuff like that. Were you talking in a more general sense, or do you actually have numbers around it, and how are you using AI and why do you think it is helping to improve your efficiency? Thank you.
嗨。你們今年把營運槓桿的指引上調了100個基點,我想你提到其中一個原因與AI有關。這有點令人意外,因為銀行其實很難量化效益,而且銀行通常會用更概括的方式談AI的好處、提升生產力之類的。你是比較泛指地在談,還是你們其實有相關數據?你們如何運用AI、為什麼你們認為它有助於提升效率?謝謝。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Mike. I think AI is one, not the only reason to drive good productivity, but it is an important lever, and has growing momentum and growing use cases for productivity within our world. We do continue to expect it to be a contributor to productivity. Some of the discussions around whether the token costs are overtaking returns is a relevant discussion.
早安,Mike。我認為AI是推動良好生產力的因素之一,但不是唯一原因;不過它是一個重要的槓桿,而且在我們的領域裡,用於提升生產力的動能與使用案例都在增加。我們仍然預期它會對生產力有所貢獻。至於代幣(token)成本是否正在超過報酬的討論,確實是個相關且重要的議題。
We have invested in developing the capabilities to swap out expensive models for cheaper models, and we have some confidence over time that we will continue to get positive returns from our AI program on productivity. More broadly, though, the place where we are being more measured is on client-facing applications, just as we fully understand the concerns around privacy and some of the customer confidence issues around it. These things will get resolved in due course. We remain quite focused on the AI program and do have confidence around its contribution to our productivity.
我們已投資建立相關能力,能把昂貴的模型替換成較便宜的模型;我們也有一定信心,隨著時間推進,我們的AI計畫在生產力方面將持續帶來正向回報。不過更廣泛來看,我們在面向客戶的應用上會更審慎,因為我們充分理解隱私方面的疑慮,以及客戶信心相關的一些問題。這些問題終究會在適當時機獲得解決。我們仍然非常專注於AI計畫,並且對它對我們生產力的貢獻有信心。
Mike Mayo - Analyst
Mike Mayo - Analyst
As it relates to the cash sorting concerns that personal AI agents will drain deposits from the banking industry, how do you think about that potential threat and the value that U.S. Bancorp provides to depositors, say, for privacy and trust? Thank you.
關於所謂的「現金分流」(cash sorting)疑慮,也就是個人AI代理可能會把存款從銀行業抽走,你們如何看待這個潛在威脅?以及就隱私與信任而言,美國合眾銀行(U.S. Bancorp)為存款人提供的價值是什麼?謝謝。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Mike, just first, we haven't seen any AI cash sorting third-party agents try to interact with the bank. The logistics of doing something like this are very complicated. We do not expect it to be a near-term impact to us. Our customer base is very digitally savvy. The adoption rates are very high. Our digital tools allow a fairly high amount of deposit price discovery and the ability to optimize automatically should a depositor choose to do that.
Mike,先說,我們還沒有看到任何AI現金分流的第三方代理嘗試與銀行互動。要做這種事情在執行與流程上非常複雜。我們不預期這會在短期內對我們造成影響。我們的客戶群在數位方面非常熟悉。採用率非常高。我們的數位工具讓存款利率的比價(price discovery)程度相當高,而且如果存款人選擇這麼做,也能自動化地進行最佳化。
All of these capabilities will strengthen with AI over time. We are not counting on it not to be that. But again, our strategy is not to attract depositors only through deposit price. We have invested a lot in creating meaningful value propositions that help people manage their lives and manage the transactions. We are quite comfortable with transparency around deposit pricing. I would say a lot of discussion around that topic. We do not see it yet in day-to-day life.
隨著時間推進,這些能力都會在AI的加持下持續強化。我們並不是把希望寄託在「它不會發生」這件事上。但同樣地,我們的策略不是只靠存款價格來吸引存款人。我們投入很多資源打造有意義的價值主張,協助人們管理生活並管理交易。我們對存款定價的透明度相當有信心。我會說,關於這個主題有很多討論。但在日常生活中,我們目前還沒有看到。
Operator
Operator
Erika Najarian, UBS.
Erika Najarian,瑞銀(UBS)。
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Erika Najarian - Analyst
I had a few follow-up questions. Good morning. Going back to the exit read on the net interest margin, I just wanted to drill down on this given Gunjan's remarks about focusing on strengthening NII. John, in the past you've mentioned that you're liability sensitive to the short end.
我有幾個追問。早安。回到淨利差(NIM)的期末走勢(exit read),鑑於Gunjan提到聚焦於強化淨利息收入(NII),我想再深入問一下。John,你過去提過你們在短端對負債端較為敏感(liability sensitive)。
As we think about the path from the fourth quarter to that 3%, is the optimization on the funding side and the asset remix enough to offset that sort of initial liability sensitivity, assuming the curve flattens from the rate hikes? In other words, does that balance sheet optimization overwhelm that static positioning on the short end?
當我們思考從第四季走到那個3%的路徑時,假設在升息後殖利率曲線趨於平坦,資金端的最佳化與資產重新配置(asset remix)是否足以抵消一開始那種負債敏感性?換句話說,資產負債表的最佳化是否會壓過短端那種較靜態的部位配置?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. On the mix and all this sort of thing, we have continued to and want to improve our asset mix to be more floating rate. That has been an area that we've talked about here and even put a slide in to show how much we've moved over the last couple of years and been methodical about that. The answer is yes.
當然。就組合與這類事情而言,我們一直在、也希望持續改善資產組合,使其更偏向浮動利率。這一直是我們在這裡談過的重點,我們甚至放了一張投影片來展示過去幾年我們移轉了多少,而且我們是有系統、有步驟地在做。答案是肯定的。
We think that the funding and the asset mix and the fixed asset repricing are enough to offset any competition on the beta side. That is what we're developing on the balance sheet side of the equation, and that's what gives us confidence, as I mentioned, just in terms of NIM path and all that sort of thing. Obviously, we'll watch the curve shape and what that looks like and how deposit competition fans out, but that's what our assumptions are at this particular juncture.
我們認為,資金來源與資產組合,以及固定利率資產的再定價,足以抵消在存款beta面臨的任何競爭。這就是我們在資產負債表這一端所建立的配置,也正是我先前提到、讓我們對淨利差(NIM)路徑等事項有信心的原因。當然,我們會觀察曲線形狀、存款競爭如何擴散等情況,但在目前這個時間點,我們的假設就是如此。
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Erika Najarian - Analyst
Got it. Just a follow-up question. You are certainly in a unique position in terms of category two, and there is a big difference between a cliff vest of your AOCI and a five-year phase-in. We are hearing that Basel III endgame will be finalized by year end, and it just feels like tailoring has to come with it, right?
了解。再追問一題。就第二類(Category II)而言,你們的處境確實相當特殊,而你們的AOCI一次性納入(cliff vest)與五年分階段導入(phase-in)之間差異很大。我們聽到Basel III終局(endgame)將在年底前定案,而感覺上也必須同時搭配量身訂做(tailoring),對吧?
Just given the phase-in component. I guess, do you have a sense on whether or not if we do get finalization of Basel III endgame, if that would be the superseding rule for you versus the cliff vest on AOCI? In other words, you get to enjoy a five-year phase-in versus a cliff vest. If so, does that change anything in terms of how you are thinking about buybacks from either a timing or magnitude perspective?
尤其考量到分階段導入的部分。我想問的是,你是否認為如果Basel III終局真的定案,對你們而言它會成為優先適用的規則,取代AOCI的一次性納入?換句話說,你們可以享有五年分階段導入,而不是一次性納入。如果是這樣,這是否會改變你們對庫藏股回購在時點或規模上的思考?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Yeah. I will go back to my comments that we are looking certainly at the regulation as a component of deciding on buybacks. It is going to be probably more dependent on RWA demands as well as interest rates, particularly in the short run. We are very much interested in rule changes that we expect to see here in the fourth quarter that can shift what our ultimate RWA and capital demands are or what that looks like.
是的。我回到我先前的評論:我們在決定是否回購時,確實會把監管因素納入考量。在短期內,這可能更取決於風險加權資產(RWA)的需求以及利率,特別是短端利率。我們非常關注預期在第四季會看到的規則變動,這些變動可能會改變我們最終的RWA與資本需求,或其呈現方式。
We are also interested, obviously, if there is tailoring and how that gets applied. It is speculation at this point, right? We know just as much as you do and what we see in the press. But we are not planning on it. We are planning on growing our capital base. We are planning on all the things that we talked about in terms of balance sheet stewardship and optimization and all these things that are going to help us on our path.
我們也同樣關注是否會有量身訂做(tailoring),以及它會如何適用。但目前這仍屬於推測,對吧?我們知道的資訊跟你們一樣多,也就是我們在媒體上看到的那些。但我們並沒有把它納入規劃。我們的規劃是擴大我們的資本基礎。我們的規劃是持續推進我們談到的各項工作,包括資產負債表的管理與最佳化等,這些都會幫助我們走在既定路徑上。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Erika, I just want to double underline that we are fully ready to transition into Category II regardless of the timing of the Basel III endgame. We have been preparing for it for a long time. When John talks about starting our buybacks in the next one or two quarters, we are not counting on any benefit from Basel III endgame. This is just capital accretion we get based on normal course business.
Erika,我想再特別強調一次:不論Basel III終局的時點如何,我們都已完全準備好轉入第二類(Category II)。我們為此準備了很長一段時間。當John談到在接下來一到兩季開始回購時,我們並沒有把Basel III終局帶來的任何好處算進去。這只是我們在正常業務運作下所累積的資本增厚(capital accretion)。
Operator
Operator
Ben Gerlinger, Citi.
Ben Gerlinger,花旗(Citi)。
Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst
Benjamin Gerlinger - Analyst
Just wanted to follow. It's helpful to hear the thoughts on overall growth and then kind of bolt-on opportunities if they do arise, if you do go that route. Just kind of thinking about the loan portfolio itself, you've kind of had some organic growth, and you've had some remixing with the card. Just kind of thinking, not necessarily a fourth quarter comment or even 2027 comment, but just down the road, how should we think about the relative mix in weighting between some of the loan categories and the areas that you would see more appealing today?
我想接續追問。聽到你們對整體成長的看法,以及如果真的出現機會、你們可能採取的補強式(bolt-on)機會,這很有幫助。就貸款組合本身來看,你們有一些內生成長,也因為卡片業務而做了一些重新配置(remixing)。往後看(不一定是第四季或甚至2027年的評論),我們應該如何看待各類貸款在權重上的相對組合,以及你們目前覺得更具吸引力的領域?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Ben, I can start on that. I think what you've been seeing on the loan side of the equation, over the past several quarters, you'll continue to see for the next several quarters in terms of leaning in on card, leaning in on C&I, and commercial real estate. Now, there may be some bumps, like commercial real estate may not be as robust in the next quarter or two, just given the backup in rates. But all in, we're focusing in that way.
當然可以。Ben,我可以先從這點開始。我認為你在過去幾個季度在放款端所看到的情況,在接下來幾個季度仍會持續,也就是更偏重信用卡、更偏重C&I(商業與工業貸款),以及商用不動產。當然,可能會有一些波動,例如商用不動產在接下來一兩個季度可能不會那麼強勁,主要是因為利率回升所致。但整體而言,我們就是以這個方向作為重點。
When we started the year, I believe our residential mortgage area of our loans was in the 30% area in terms of loan mix. We do see that coming down, and more because of the growth in the other categories, so we're growing into it. So we anticipate the mortgage area will probably be in the mid-20s at some point over time. But again, it's going to be because of the growth in the other areas, not because we're diminishing our focus on the residential mortgage book. We continue to think that's a strong business over the fullness of time.
年初的時候,我記得我們貸款組合中,住宅房貸大約占30%左右。我們確實看到這個比重在下降,而更多是因為其他類別的成長,所以我們是靠其他類別的成長把占比「長」下來。因此我們預期,隨著時間推進,房貸占比可能會在某個時間點降到25%左右(約中段20%)。但再強調一次,這會是因為其他領域的成長,而不是因為我們降低對住宅房貸資產組合的重視。我們仍然認為,從長期來看這是一門很強的業務。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Ben, our thought process very much is that it's a relationship loan. So where you get fee revenue, you get deep relationships, you get sticky deposits, that's where we want to extend our balance sheet. The categories that lend themselves to this are credit cards. It's a big fee-based business. The C&I loans with our corporate payments, our treasury management, and our investment services products makes that a very attractive loan.
Ben,我們的思考方式很明確:這是一筆關係型貸款。所以,哪裡能帶來手續費收入、能建立深度關係、能帶來黏著度高的存款,我們就希望把資產負債表擴展到哪裡。最符合這種特性的類別是信用卡。這是一個以手續費為主的大型業務。而C&I貸款若搭配我們的企業支付、財資管理,以及投資服務產品,也會使其成為非常有吸引力的放款。
Then as we build out the capital markets, that becomes a good use of balance sheet as well. So the categories that we would be more measured on would then become auto, mortgage, and some of these more standalone, which over time will still be very important products for us, but as John said, just become more measured.
接著,隨著我們把資本市場業務建置起來,這也會成為資產負債表的良好運用方向。因此,我們會更審慎拿捏的類別就會是汽車貸款、房貸,以及一些較為單一、獨立的產品;這些產品長期來看仍會是我們非常重要的產品,但如John所說,我們會更有節制、更審慎地配置。
Operator
Operator
David Chiaverini, Jefferies.
David Chiaverini,Jefferies。
David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst
David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst
Wanted to ask about the efficiency ratio outlook. Your guide mid to high 50s. What could take U.S. Bancorp to the high end versus the low end? To what extent does the interest rate environment influence that?
我想詢問效率比率(efficiency ratio)的展望。你們的指引是中到高50%區間。有哪些因素會讓U.S. Bancorp落在區間的高端或低端?利率環境在多大程度上會影響這一點?
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
John Stern - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President
Sure. Right now, obviously we're around 56, just under that, which we're very proud of in terms of making good progress there. Obviously the operating leverage has helped with the revenue growth that we've seen.
好的。目前很明顯我們大約在56左右、略低於56;就我們在這方面取得的良好進展而言,我們非常自豪。顯然,隨著我們看到的營收成長,營運槓桿也提供了助力。
We continue to anticipate strong growth and continuing that operating leverage, and so our desire is to get closer to that mid part versus the mid to high 50s. That's an area that we're focused on. Obviously, the rate environment and the macro will drive things here and there, but that's been our focus and what we've been talking about.
我們仍然預期會有強勁成長並持續展現營運槓桿,因此我們希望能更接近區間中段,而不是落在中到高50%區間的偏高端。這是我們聚焦的領域。當然,利率環境與總體經濟會在某些方面帶來影響,但這一直是我們的重點,也是我們一直在談的方向。
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I would say the high end will be if capital markets growth turns out to be very robust, and it'll be a good reason to be on a high end. That's a high efficiency ratio business. The low end will be our AI program. There's a lot to be discovered there. There's a lot of potential there, and you can see a path where that accelerates and really begins to impact the productivity of the firm.
我會說,若資本市場業務的成長結果非常強勁,那效率比率可能會落在高端,而那會是個「好的原因」導致落在高端。因為那是一個效率比率較高的業務。至於低端,則會是我們的AI計畫。那裡還有很多值得探索的地方。那裡有很大的潛力,你可以看到一條路徑:它可能加速推進,並真正開始影響公司的生產力。
David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst
David Chiaverini - Equity Analyst
Thanks for that. Then I wanted to ask about USBDC. You mentioned about how it launched in September. Did you launch this due to strong client demand, or is this more of getting the capability up and running in anticipation of increased client demand down the road?
謝謝你的說明。接著我想問USBDC。你提到它在9月上線。你們推出這個是因為客戶需求強勁,還是更多是為了先把能力建置並運行起來,以因應未來客戶需求可能增加?
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
It's certainly the latter. I very clearly have to say there is not much client demand at all. What there is now is client curiosity. Even from two quarters back, we have quite a few clients wanting to experiment with us on what this might do. The launch, as you know, is a pilot. The actual launch of the product will take some regulatory approvals here.
肯定是後者。我必須非常清楚地說,目前幾乎沒有什麼客戶需求。目前有的是客戶的好奇心。甚至從兩個季度前開始,我們就有不少客戶希望和我們一起試驗,看看這可能帶來什麼效果。如你所知,這次上線是一個試點(pilot)。產品真正的正式推出還需要取得一些監管核准。
We do think that as companies think about combining the benefits of the banking system, which they do really appreciate, with some of the shortcomings, mostly what we have heard is 24/7 real-time availability, especially over the weekends, cross-border. Most central banks don't have that kind of capability. So we are building out the product set in anticipation of being able to do something that creates value to customers. But we would not say that there is very robust demand just yet that has developed. Most of the conversations are around the corporate payment space.
我們確實認為,當企業思考如何把銀行體系的優點(他們確實很重視)與一些不足之處結合起來時——我們聽到的主要不足是:全年無休(24/7)的即時可用性,尤其是在週末,以及跨境方面。多數中央銀行並不具備那樣的能力。因此我們正在建置產品組合,以期在未來能做出一些能為客戶創造價值的事情。但我們不會說目前已經出現非常強勁的需求。大多數對話都圍繞在企業支付領域。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Mauney, I turn the call back over to you.
目前沒有其他問題。Mauney先生,我把電話會議交回給您。
Brian Mauney - Director of Investor Relations
Brian Mauney - Director of Investor Relations
Yeah. Thank you to everyone who joined our call this morning. Please contact the Investor Relations department if you have any follow-up questions. Rob, you may now disconnect.
好的。感謝今天早上加入我們電話會議的各位。如果你們有任何後續問題,請聯絡投資人關係部門。Rob,你現在可以斷線了。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。你現在可以斷線。