聯合航空 (UAL) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' earnings conference call for the first-quarter 2026. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator today. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

早安，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Regina，今天將擔任本次會議的主持人。(接線員指示) 本通話將被錄音並受著作權保護。請注意，未經公司許可，不得錄音、逐字記錄或轉播本通話的任何部分。您參與本通話即表示您同意我們對本通話進行錄音。若您不同意這些條款，請直接掛斷。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把簡報交給今天的主持人——投資人關係董事總經理 Kristina Edwards。請開始。

Thanks, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations and are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

謝謝你，Regina。各位早安，歡迎參加聯合航空 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。昨天我們發布了財報新聞稿，可於 ir.united.com 的網站查閱。昨天新聞稿中的資訊以及本次電話會議中的發言可能包含前瞻性陳述，代表公司目前的預期，並以公司目前可得資訊為基礎。多項因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期出現重大差異。

Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q, and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors. Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call and historical operational metrics will exclude pandemic years. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures at the end of our earnings release.

關於這些因素更完整的說明，請參閱我們的財報新聞稿、Form 10-K 與 10-Q，以及聯合航空控股公司與聯合航空向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的其他報告。除非另有說明，本次電話會議將以非 GAAP 基礎討論財務指標，且歷史營運指標將排除疫情年度。請參閱財報新聞稿末尾所列之相關定義，以及這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比 GAAP 指標之調節表。

Joining us today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen. We also have other members of the executive team on the line available for Q&A.

今天與我們一同討論業績與展望的有：執行長 Scott Kirby；總裁 Brett Hart；執行副總裁兼商務長 Andrew Nocella；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Leskinen。我們也有其他高階主管在線上，將於問答環節提供回應。

And now I'd like to flip the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話交給 Scott。

Thanks, Kristina, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to congratulate the United team on a strong first quarter. We're building the number one brand loyal airline in the world, and our financial results are indicative of the structural permanent and irreversible changes that have happened at United and across the industry.

謝謝你，Kristina，各位早安。我要祝賀聯合航空團隊第一季表現強勁。我們正在打造全球第一的品牌忠誠航空公司，而我們的財務成果反映了聯合航空以及整個產業已發生的結構性、永久且不可逆的變化。

Our first-quarter results are just the latest proof point in our strategy to build a decommoditized brand loyal airline that's setting a new standard for what is possible for customers in air travel. We've proven that the winning strategy is to make travel easier and better for all customers.

我們第一季的成果，是我們打造去商品化、以品牌忠誠為核心的航空公司策略的最新佐證；該策略正為航空旅行中客戶所能期待的體驗樹立全新標準。我們已證明，致勝策略就是讓所有客戶的旅行更容易、更美好。

And while all of us at United are deservedly proud of the brand we've built, we aspire to go further, and we want to set a new higher standard by revolutionizing air travel for our customers. More immediately, of course, we're managing through the impact of jet fuel prices that have doubled. Industry stress events seem to happen every five to six years. While we didn't know exactly what or when it would be, we knew something would happen. It's the best thing we could do was to prepare United in advance.

儘管聯合航空的每一位同仁都理所當然地為我們打造的品牌感到自豪，但我們希望更進一步，並透過革新航空旅行，為客戶樹立更高的新標準。當然，就眼前而言，我們正在因應航空燃油價格翻倍所帶來的影響。產業壓力事件似乎每五到六年就會發生一次。雖然我們無法確切知道會是什麼、何時發生，但我們知道一定會有事情發生。我們能做的最好事情，就是事先讓聯合航空做好準備。

To that end, we have one, triple our cash balance; two, move to the top of the industry and profit margins; and three, strengthened our balance sheet. In fact, we ended 2025 with our highest credit rating in almost three decades. Advanced preparation allows us to stay focused on the long term while making near-term tactical adjustments to account for elevated fuel prices.

為此，我們：第一，把現金餘額提高到三倍；第二，在產業中把獲利率提升到領先位置；第三，強化資產負債表。事實上，我們在 2025 年底的信用評等達到近三十年來最高。超前部署讓我們能在因應高燃油價格、進行短期戰術調整的同時，仍然專注於長期目標。

At the moment, our goal is to do whatever it takes to recover 100% of the increase in jet fuel prices as quickly as possible and to achieve double-digit pretax margins next year. Oil is incredibly volatile right now, but because we think we're moving towards 100% pass-through, it allows us to have confidence in both our near- and medium-term earnings trajectory, enough so that we can still provide guidance.

目前，我們的目標是不惜一切代價，盡快回收航空燃油價格上漲的 100%，並在明年達成兩位數的稅前利潤率。油價目前波動極大，但由於我們認為正朝向 100% 成本轉嫁（pass-through）前進，這讓我們對短期與中期的獲利走勢都有信心，足以讓我們仍能提供財測指引。

For United, here's how we're thinking about our goals to get to 100% pass-through and achieve double-digit margins in 2027. For one, to recover 100% of costs yields need to increase by about 15% to 20%, and we are assuming that fuel may remain higher for longer. Two, as yields increase, there will be an elasticity effect on demand, we're estimating will lead to over -- to less overall demand. While we haven't actually seen that decline yet, (inaudible) makes us believe it's coming. Three, less demand means that we should be supplying fewer seats to the market.

對聯合航空而言，以下是我們對達成 100% 成本轉嫁並在 2027 年達成兩位數利潤率的目標之思考方式。第一，要回收 100% 成本，收益率（yield）需要提高約 15% 至 20%，而我們假設燃油價格可能在較長時間內維持高檔。第二，隨著收益率上升，需求會出現彈性效應，我們估計將導致整體需求下降。雖然我們尚未真正看到那樣的下滑，(inaudible) 但這讓我們相信它即將到來。第三，需求減少意味著我們應該向市場提供更少的座位供給。

For United, that means we're targeting capacity to be flat to up 2% for 3Q and 4Q on a year-over-year basis. It simply doesn't make sense to fly marginal flights that will lose cash in a higher fuel price environment. Mike will provide more details behind our 2026 outlook, but our view for 2027 is that we're targeting a pretax margin of at least 10%. We obviously have some time to see what happens, but if jet fuel remains elevated compared to our pre-war levels as we think it might, we'd once again expect to require less capacity growth in 2027 than we were planning just two months ago.

對聯合航空而言，這表示我們的目標是在第三季與第四季的運能（capacity）年增率介於持平至增加 2%。在燃油價格較高的環境下，飛行那些邊際航班、最終會虧現金，顯然並不合理。Mike 將提供更多關於我們 2026 年展望的細節；但我們對 2027 年的看法是，目標稅前利潤率至少 10%。我們顯然還有一些時間觀察後續發展，但若航空燃油相較於戰前水準仍如我們所想維持高檔，我們將再次預期 2027 年所需的運能成長將低於兩個月前的規劃。

Realistically, there probably isn't enough time to make up 100% of the fuel price increase this year. But I feel very good about 100% recovery and getting to double-digit margins in 2027. And because we've positioned United for success, we can make tactical adjustments to manage what we need to in the short term while also staying focused on our long-term plan.

務實來看，今年可能沒有足夠時間回收燃油價格上漲的 100%。但我對於在 2027 年達成 100% 回收並取得兩位數利潤率非常有信心。而且因為我們已讓聯合航空處於成功的位置，我們可以在短期內做出必要的戰術調整來管理需要處理的事項，同時仍專注於長期計畫。

I'm also more convinced than ever that our decade-long strategy to build a great brand loyal airline that is successfully focused on making travel easier and better for all customers is the winning strategy. Finally, we've got a lot of press coverage regarding consolidation rumors. We've not commented specifically on those reports and aren't going to start today.

我也比以往任何時候都更確信，我們長達十年的策略——打造一家卓越、以品牌忠誠為核心，並成功聚焦於讓所有客戶旅行更容易、更美好的航空公司——就是致勝策略。最後，關於整併傳聞，我們也看到許多媒體報導。我們未就那些報導作出具體評論，今天也不會開始。

So you can ask me about it if you'd like, but you won't be getting anything new from me on it today. With that, I'll hand it over to Brett.

所以如果你想問我也可以，但今天你不會從我這裡得到任何新的內容。接下來我把時間交給 Brett。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. During the first quarter of 2026, United carried a record number of passengers, while also navigating a challenging operating environment. The quarter experienced elevated weather events and geopolitical disruptions, but our teams remain laser-focused on recovering from these events swiftly and delivering top-tier reliability for our customers. In the first quarter, we continued our streak of ranking first in on-time departures among the eight largest US carriers.

謝謝你，Scott，各位早安。在 2026 年第一季，聯合航空載運旅客人數創下紀錄，同時也在充滿挑戰的營運環境中前行。本季遭遇較多天候事件與地緣政治干擾，但我們的團隊仍高度專注於迅速從這些事件中復原，並為客戶提供一流的可靠性。第一季期間，我們持續在美國八大航空公司中名列準點起飛第一。

During the quarter, United's per seat cancellation rate averaged 44% lower than the next two largest US carriers. Solid operational performance is the backbone of the airline and helped drive our highest first quarter on-time Net Promoter Score since the pandemic. During the quarter, customers increasingly engaged with our self-service tools, allowing us to drive more personalization throughout their journey. Day of app usage reached a record 86% supported by continued mobile enhancements, such as improved bag tracking and live TSA wait times.

本季，聯合航空以每座位計的取消率平均比另外兩家最大的美國航空公司低 44%。穩健的營運表現是航空公司的骨幹，也推動我們達成疫情以來第一季最高的準點淨推薦值（Net Promoter Score）。本季，客戶愈來愈多使用我們的自助服務工具，使我們能在其旅程中提供更多個人化體驗。在持續的行動端強化（例如改善行李追蹤與提供 TSA 即時等候時間）的支持下，當日 App 使用率創下 86% 的新高。

Additionally, I would also like to take a moment to thank the TSA employees who showed up to keep us safe during the government shutdown. We have also improved our disruption communications by embedding live maps directly within customer messages. These tools and redesign help us recover faster and make it easier for customers to navigate disruptions. Another reason United remains differentiated, and why we continue to build brand loyalty.

此外，我也想花一點時間感謝在政府停擺期間仍到場維持我們安全的 TSA 員工。我們也透過將即時地圖直接嵌入客戶訊息中，改善了我們的中斷（航班異常）溝通。這些工具與重新設計可協助我們更快復原，並讓客戶更容易在航班中斷時掌握與應對。這也是聯合航空得以保持差異化、並持續建立品牌忠誠度的另一個原因。

Late last week, the FAA issued an order regarding the summer 2026 schedule at Chicago O'Hare. We are currently reviewing the FAA order, and we'll share additional information, including any next steps as soon as our review is complete.

上週稍晚，FAA 就 2026 年夏季在芝加哥歐海爾機場的航班時刻表發布了一項命令。我們目前正在審閱 FAA 的命令，並將在審閱完成後，儘快分享更多資訊，包括任何後續步驟。

We are pleased to reach a tentative agreement during the quarter with our flight attendance, represented by the Association of Flight Attendants. This agreement includes well-deserved industry-leading wages and other meaningful improvements for our flight attendants who play an essential role for caring for our customers and representing United every day. Voting concludes on May 12.

我們很高興在本季期間，與由空服員協會（Association of Flight Attendants）代表的空服員達成暫定協議。該協議包含實至名歸、業界領先的薪資，以及其他具實質意義的改善，提供給每天在照顧客戶並代表聯合航空、扮演關鍵角色的空服員。投票將於 5 月 12 日結束。

On April 6, United celebrated its 100th birthday a meaningful milestone for our airline. The generations of employees who have built it and our loyal customers who continue to choose to fly the (inaudible) skies on United. I want to thank all of our employees for the care and commitment they bring each day to our customers and to one another. As we recognize this milestone, we remain firmly focused on the future and on building an even better airline through continued investment in our product, our people, our network, and our operations.

4 月 6 日，聯合航空慶祝成立 100 週年——這是對我們航空公司而言意義重大的里程碑。這要歸功於一代又一代打造這家公司的員工，以及持續選擇搭乘聯合航空翱翔（聽不清）天空的忠誠客戶。我要感謝所有員工每天對客戶、以及彼此所展現的關懷與承諾。在我們紀念這個里程碑之際，我們仍堅定聚焦未來，並透過持續投資於我們的產品、人才、航網與營運，打造更好的航空公司。

With that, I will hand it over to Andrew to discuss the revenue environment and our other industry-leading commercial initiatives.

接下來，我把時間交給 Andrew，請他談談營收環境以及我們其他業界領先的商務（商業）計畫。

Thanks, Brett. Consolidated total operating revenue in Q1 increased 10.6% year over year to a record first quarter of $14.6 billion. PRASM increased by 6.9% year over year. All regions had positive PRASM in the quarter. I'd like to -- I described at the start of the year as strong for all customer types in all regions.

謝謝，Brett。第一季合併總營運收入年增 10.6%，達到創紀錄的第一季 146 億美元。PRASM（每可用座位英里旅客收入）年增 6.9%。本季所有區域的 PRASM 均為正成長。我想——我在年初就形容過：各區域、各類型客群的需求都很強勁。

For January and February, prior to any impact from the war, we saw a tick in for business revenues up approximately 12%, while leisure was up a healthy 6%. Looking back at Q4, business ticketed revenues were up 6% and leisure was up only 2% year over year, creating a nice sequential increase in the first two-thirds of the quarter. Premium demand remained strong with Q1 premium revenues up 13.6% on 4.4% increase in capacity. Premium RASMs were up 8.9% year over year, leading Main Cabin by 4 points. It is clear that consumers continue to seek elevated experiences.

在 1 月與 2 月、也就是戰爭影響出現之前，我們看到商務營收約成長 12%，而休閒旅遊也有健康的 6% 成長。回顧第四季，商務機票營收年增 6%，休閒僅年增 2%，使得本季前 2/3 期間呈現不錯的連續性提升。高端需求仍然強勁：第一季高端艙等營收在運能增加 4.4% 的情況下成長 13.6%。高端 RASM 年增 8.9%，比主艙（Main Cabin）高出 4 個百分點。很明顯，消費者仍持續追求更高品質的體驗。

Business demand was strong in Q1 with revenues up 14% year over year and spread across all verticals. Headlines about TSA wait times did suppress demand between March 23 and April 1, but they have fully recovered since. Our Loyalty business continued to outperform and total loyalty revenue was up 13% in the quarter, acquisitions and spend were both very healthy and supported by updates we made to the MileagePlus program.

第一季商務需求強勁，營收年增 14%，且成長分布於各個產業別。關於 TSA 等候時間的新聞標題確實在 3 月 23 日至 4 月 1 日期間壓抑了需求，但此後已完全恢復。我們的忠誠度業務持續優於整體表現，本季忠誠度總營收年增 13%；新會員獲取與消費金額都非常健康，並受惠於我們對 MileagePlus 計畫所做的更新。

Late in the first quarter, we implemented five broadly successful price increases along with an increase in baggage fees that began to offset the increase in the price of jet fuel. Price increases in response to the increase in jet fuel have been significant and across the board However, global long-haul increases have been a bit stronger than domestic.

在第一季末期，我們成功推動了五次廣泛的票價調漲，並上調行李費，開始抵銷航空燃油價格上升的影響。因應航空燃油上漲的票價調整幅度顯著，且幾乎全面性發生；不過，全球長程航線的漲幅略強於國內航線。

In January and February, United selling ticket yields were up 4% year over year. In the first half of March, that increased to 12% and further increased to 18% for the second half of March. So far in April, this trend has continued and the last week selling yields for all future travel are now up 20% year over year. As you would expect, we sold 23% of our Q2 and 8% of our Q3 capacity at lower price points prior to the rise in jet fuel costs. We remain confident in our ability to fully recapture the fuel cost increases over time.

在 1 月與 2 月，聯合航空的售票收益率（ticket yields）年增 4%。3 月上半月增至 12%，3 月下半月進一步增至 18%。截至 4 月目前為止，這個趨勢仍在延續；上週所有未來出行的售票收益率現已年增 20%。如各位所預期，在航空燃油成本上升之前，我們以較低價位售出了第二季 23% 與第三季 8% 的運能。我們仍有信心，隨時間推進能完全收回燃油成本上升所帶來的影響。

And in 2Q, we expect to recover between 40% and 50% of the current increase. In response to higher fuel cost environment, we've begun to adjust capacity downward by approximately five points throughout the rest of the year we now expect Q3 and Q4 capacity to be flat to up approximately 2%. Our adjustments removed marginal capacity on off-peak days and flight times such as red eyes, which we believe will fuel our recovery of fuel prices increases in the second half of 2026.

而在第二季，我們預期可回收目前漲幅的 40% 至 50%。因應較高的燃油成本環境，我們已開始在今年剩餘期間將運能下調約 5 個百分點；目前我們預期第三季與第四季運能將持平至小幅增加約 2%。我們的調整移除了離峰日與離峰時段（例如紅眼航班）的邊際運能；我們相信，這將有助於我們在 2026 年下半年回收燃油價格上升的影響。

Our current selling schedule is up just over 4% in the summer, but those capacity adjustments will be loaded in the next week or so to get the capacity out there selling appropriately. On our January call, I hinted about new commercial initiatives that we believe will drive brand loyalty choice and increase revenue for United over the medium and long term.

我們目前的售票時刻表在夏季僅增加略高於 4%，但這些運能調整將在接下來一週左右載入系統，以便把運能以適當方式投入市場銷售。在 1 月的電話會議上，我曾暗示我們將推出新的商務（商業）計畫，我們相信這些計畫將推動品牌忠誠度選擇，並在中長期提升聯合航空的營收。

We have now formally announced these initiatives, and I will summarize them today for you. To be clear, these changes have been in the works for years and be made across all aircraft, all cabins in many different areas of the commercial business. First, and maybe of greatest importance we've made the largest change in a decade to how we display and sell products on united.com and in our app. Internally, we described this change as nested sell-in. Bestselling years research program and test and is now active in our digital channels.

我們現在已正式宣布這些計畫，今天我會為各位做摘要。先說清楚，這些變更已籌備多年，並將在所有機型、所有艙等，以及商務（商業）業務的多個領域推行。第一點，也許是最重要的一點：我們對 united.com 與 App 上產品的展示與銷售方式，做出了十年來最大幅度的改變。在內部，我們將這項改變稱為「nested sell-in」。這是多年研究、測試的成果，現在已在我們的數位通路上線。

We can now properly merchandise our growing product lineup. We have already seen large increases in upselling because of these website changes. We simply were unable to show all the products we had for sale easily on the old website display. Second, as part of the website evolution, we've introduced base fares in our premium cabins, base fares come with less check luggage, no early seat assignments and different club access features.

我們現在能更妥善地陳列（行銷）我們日益擴大的產品組合。由於這些網站變更，我們已看到加購升等（upselling）大幅增加。在舊版網站的呈現方式下，我們確實無法輕易把所有可售產品完整展示出來。第二點，作為網站演進的一部分，我們在高端艙等推出「基本票價」（base fares）；基本票價包含較少的託運行李額度、沒有提前選位，且貴賓室使用權等權益也有所不同。

To be clear, everyone on a base fair will be able to secure a seat assignment at any point via an ancillary purchase are for free during the check-in window. These base fares allow consumers more control over their experience by choosing what services they launch included on their journey and were a tremendous success in the economy cabin with basic economy.

說清楚一點，所有購買基本票價的旅客，都可以在任何時間透過購買附加服務來取得座位指派，或在辦理報到的時間窗口內免費取得座位指派。這些基本票價讓消費者能透過選擇旅程中要包含哪些服務，對自身體驗有更多掌控；而在經濟艙推出「基本經濟艙」（basic economy）時，這種做法已取得巨大成功。

Third, we announced that 50 A321 coast liners are planned to join our fleet. With the coast liner, we can extend our award win and are brand for the first time on all United flights from New York to Los Angeles and San Francisco. Fourth, we unveiled United's new Airbus A321 XLR onboard products. These products on each XLR consistent with the coast liner.

第三點，我們宣布計畫引進 50 架 A321「coast liner」加入機隊。透過 coast liner，我們能首次在所有聯合航空紐約往返洛杉磯與舊金山的航班上，延伸我們屢獲獎項的（聽不清）品牌體驗。第四點，我們揭曉了聯合航空全新 Airbus A321 XLR 機上產品。每架 XLR 上的這些產品將與 coast liner 保持一致。

However, we've modified certain aspects of each XLR for the unique needs of an eight-hour Atlantic Crossing versus a (inaudible) flight including the larger snack bar, more laboratories, more galley space, and less main cabin seating density. Combined between the coast liner and the XLR, we expect to have a fleet of 100 A321s equipped to 20 lay-flat beds and 12 Premium Plus seats, a commitment to this unique narrowbody platform, unmatched by others. Premium Plus seats will be for the first time deployed on domestic routes at scale.

不過，我們也針對每架 XLR 的某些面向做了調整，以符合 8 小時跨大西洋航程相較於（聽不清）航班的獨特需求，包括更大的點心吧、更多洗手間、更大的廚房（galley）空間，以及較低的主艙座位密度。綜合 coast liner 與 XLR，我們預期將擁有 100 架 A321 機隊，配置 20 個全平躺床位與 12 個 Premium Plus 座位；對這一獨特窄體機平台的投入承諾，其他業者無可匹敵。Premium Plus 座位也將首次以規模化方式部署於國內航線。

Fifth, to be a premium brand, we needed to have a consistent product no matter what plane you're flying or where you're going. United redefined service to smaller communities a few years back with the CRJ550, and we've now extended that idea into what we're calling the RJ 450.

第五，若要成為高端品牌，無論你搭乘哪一架飛機或前往何處，我們都必須提供一致的產品體驗。幾年前，聯合航空透過 CRJ550 重新定義了對較小社區的服務，而我們如今已將這個概念延伸到我們所稱的 RJ 450。

Sixth, we announced Relax Row, our latest product innovation for young families on global routes a few weeks ago. Relax Row is a main cabin product that transforms three seats into a flat surface and includes bed and pillows. And seventh, we said we would change MileagePlus to accelerate United's earnings, and we have. Members will now be awarded more miles when they fly if they hold our co-branded credit card versus members who do not hold the card.

第六，幾週前我們宣布了 Relax Row，這是我們針對全球航線年輕家庭推出的最新產品創新。Relax Row 是一項主艙產品，可將三個座位轉換為平坦的表面，並包含床墊與枕頭。第七，我們表示將調整 MileagePlus 以加速聯合航空的獲利，而我們也已做到。會員現在在搭機時，若持有我們的聯名信用卡，將可獲得比未持卡會員更多的里程獎勵。

We also announced discounts for redemption only available to credit card holders, all these actions will increase the value of being a MileagePlus member and hold in our credit card. While we continue to work under a long-term co-brand contract with our partners from Chase, we're making changes to what we can control today. In due course, we expect to have a new contract optimized for all stakeholders due to the current market dynamics.

我們也宣布了僅限信用卡持卡人享有的兌換折扣；這些行動都將提升成為 MileagePlus 會員並持有我們信用卡的價值。在我們持續與 Chase 的合作夥伴依長期聯名合約合作的同時，我們也在調整目前我們今天能掌控的部分。隨著當前市場動態的變化，我們預期在適當時機將會有一份為所有利害關係人最佳化的新合約。

Turning to our fleet, we have taken delivery of four high-premium Boeing 787-9s with up to 16 more expected to be added in 2026, a total of 33 planned over the next two years. The interior of our new 789 has something for everyone, and we believe further strengthens our premium brand. All of our commercial initiatives announced over the last few weeks have been years in the making, tested with countless customers and employee focus groups and are ready for prime time.

談到機隊，我們已接收四架高端配置的波音 787-9，並預期 2026 年還將再加入最多 16 架；未來兩年合計規劃引進 33 架。我們新 789 的客艙內裝能滿足各類旅客需求，我們相信這將進一步強化我們的高端品牌。過去幾週宣布的所有商業計畫，都是多年來的成果，並經過無數客戶與員工焦點團體測試，現已準備正式推出。

Our launch plan is bold, quick and designed to increase customer choice, revenues, and brand loyal customers. These new initiatives plus previous initiatives like Signature Interiors and Starlink or addition is expected to be largely rolled out in two years. The future is now. United is now on final approach towards our product and premium vision, but a completely transformed United versus pre-pandemic for all customers.

我們的推出計畫大膽、迅速，旨在提升客戶選擇、營收與品牌忠誠客群。這些新措施，加上先前的措施（如 Signature Interiors 與 Starlink 的導入或新增），預期將在兩年內大致完成全面推廣。未來就是現在。聯合航空正進入實現我們產品與高端願景的最後進場階段，對所有客戶而言，這將是一個相較疫情前徹底轉型的聯合航空。

I could not be more proud of the United team that has spent countless years and hours planning these product changes. These are the type of changes and product improvements across all cabins and for all customers that we believe genuinely differentiate United. We will continue to watch the demand and pricing environment very carefully in the coming weeks and quarter to refine as necessary our approach to this rapidly changing environment.

我對聯合航空團隊感到無比自豪，他們花了無數年與無數小時規劃這些產品變革。我們相信，這些橫跨所有艙等、面向所有客戶的變革與產品提升，確實能讓聯合航空形成真正的差異化。未來幾週與本季，我們將非常審慎地觀察需求與定價環境，並視需要調整我們在這個快速變動環境中的作法。

With that, I'll hand it over to Mike to discuss our results and our outlook. Mike?

接下來我把時間交給 Mike，請他說明我們的業績與展望。Mike？

Thanks, Andrew. The first quarter has been a reminder that successfully managing the airline for the long term requires being prepared for short-term shocks. We've accomplished that at United by earning brand loyal customers. That strategy has led to margins at the top end of our industry and the best balance sheet we've had in almost 30 years. The financial strength that's created reinforces our ability to make the right long-term decisions.

謝謝你，Andrew。第一季再次提醒我們：要長期成功經營航空公司，就必須為短期衝擊做好準備。聯合航空透過贏得品牌忠誠客戶做到了這一點。這項策略帶來了業界頂尖區間的利潤率，以及我們近 30 年來最強健的資產負債表。由此建立的財務實力，進一步強化了我們做出正確長期決策的能力。

The latest challenge in our industry is the massive run-up in fuel prices created by the conflict in Iran. Fuel prices remain volatile, and we're monitoring the situation closely. We delivered resilient results with first-quarter earnings per share of $1.19 within our initial guidance range of $1 to $1.50 and up 31% year over year, even with a $340 million higher fuel bill in the quarter.

我們產業最新的挑戰，是伊朗衝突造成燃油價格大幅飆升。燃油價格仍然波動，我們正密切關注情勢。即使本季燃油支出增加 3.4 億美元，我們仍交出具韌性的成果：第一季每股盈餘（EPS）為 1.19 美元，落在我們最初 1 至 1.50 美元的指引區間內，且年增 31%。

Our pretax margin was 3.4%, a 40 basis point expansion versus the first quarter of last year. Demand for the United product was already robust going into this heightened fuel environment. We believe we have the ability to pass on the increase in fuel due in large part to our brand loyal customers, continued demand strength and preference to fly United even at higher fares.

我們的稅前利潤率為 3.4%，較去年第一季擴張 40 個基點。在燃油環境升溫之前，市場對聯合航空產品的需求就已相當強勁。我們相信，憑藉品牌忠誠客戶、持續強勁的需求，以及即使票價較高旅客仍偏好搭乘聯合航空，我們有能力將燃油上漲的成本轉嫁出去。

In this elevated fuel environment, we began to swiftly adjust capacity in addition to pulling our Tel Aviv and Dubai flights, which together were 1.5 points of our capacity. These close-in cancellations from low CASM markets, along with significant storm-related capacity reductions throughout the quarter, pressure unit costs. And as a result, our CASM ex for the first quarter was up 5.9% year over year.

在這樣的高燃油環境下，除了暫停特拉維夫與杜拜航班（兩者合計約占我們運能的 1.5 個百分點）之外，我們也開始迅速調整運能。這些臨近出發日的取消（來自低 CASM 市場），再加上本季多次與風暴相關的運能縮減，對單位成本造成壓力。因此，我們第一季的 CASM ex 年增 5.9%。

As discussed, we are also proactively removing about 5 points of capacity for the rest of the year that we don't believe can cover the elevated cost of fuel. We expect capacity in the back half of the year to be flat to up 2%, and several points lower than our original plan. That will continue to pressure our CASM ex, but we expect it will improve profitability and cash flow for the remainder of the year. This is precisely why we don't manage to CASM ex, but to long-term profits and cash flow.

如前所述，我們也主動在今年剩餘期間削減約 5 個百分點的運能，因為我們認為這部分運能無法覆蓋偏高的燃油成本。我們預期下半年運能將持平至成長 2%，且較原先計畫低數個百分點。這將持續對我們的 CASM ex 造成壓力，但我們預期可提升今年剩餘期間的獲利能力與現金流。這正是我們不以 CASM ex 作為管理目標，而是以長期獲利與現金流為管理目標的原因。

Looking ahead, we expect second-quarter EPS to be between $1 and $2 anchored by an all-in fuel average price of approximately $4.30 per gallon. For the full year, we are providing an updated and widened guidance range to encompass multiple scenarios. As we've experienced over the last two months, the world can change quickly, but in both higher and lower fuel price scenarios, we expect to recapture 40% to 50% of the increased fuel cost in the second quarter, 70% to 80% in the third quarter, and 85% to 100% by the fourth quarter.

展望未來，我們預期第二季 EPS 介於 1 至 2 美元，主要假設為燃油含稅平均價格約每加侖 4.30 美元。就全年而言，我們提供更新且更寬的指引區間，以涵蓋多種情境。如同過去兩個月的經驗，世界變化可能很快；但無論燃油價格走高或走低，我們預期在第二季可收回燃油成本增加的 40% 至 50%，第三季 70% 至 80%，到第四季則可達 85% 至 100%。

We expect to deliver full-year 2026 EPS in the $7 to $11 range. The demand environment to date remains strong, and we expect will support a double-digit increase in RASM in the second quarter and for the full year. If fuel prices remain on a downward trend, we expect to be in the upper half of the guidance ranges, and if fuel re-escalate, we would expect to be in the lower half of the guidance ranges.

我們預期 2026 全年 EPS 將落在 7 至 11 美元區間。截至目前，需求環境仍然強勁，我們預期將支撐第二季以及全年 RASM 的雙位數成長。若燃油價格持續下行，我們預期將落在指引區間的上半部；若燃油價格再度上升，我們預期將落在指引區間的下半部。

With that said, United remains in a strong financial position our resilience in a high fuel price environment as well as our relative position in the industry provides further confidence in our long-term target of achieving double-digit pretax margins as soon as next year. Our proactive approach to managing the network in this environment is helping us achieve this outcome.

話雖如此，聯合航空仍處於強健的財務狀態；我們在高燃油價格環境下的韌性，以及我們在產業中的相對位置，進一步強化了我們對長期目標的信心：最快在明年就達成稅前利潤率雙位數。我們在此環境下主動管理航網的作法，正協助我們實現這一結果。

Turning to the balance sheet. We continue to march towards our goal of being investment grade. In the quarter, we took actions to make further progress towards this goal and paid down more than $3.1 billion in debt, unencumbering more assets by accelerating our repayment of $2 billion of our notes that were secured by our slots, gates, and routes while also prepaying $400 million of near-term maturity or higher cost aircraft debt.

接著談資產負債表。我們持續朝取得投資等級的目標邁進。本季我們採取行動以進一步推進該目標，償還超過 31 億美元的債務，並透過加速償還 20 億美元以時段（slots）、登機門（gates）與航線作為擔保的票據，解除更多資產的擔保限制；同時也預付 4 億美元即將到期或成本較高的飛機相關債務。

Additionally, the first quarter marked United's return to the unsecured market. As we raised $2 billion across two unsecured bonds, our first unsecured issuance since 2019. The five-year bonds priced at 5 3/8, while the three-year bonds came in under 5% at 4 7/8. We successfully reset the credit curve for United, compressing the gap in our credit spreads with investment-grade peers to historically low levels. This was the first high-yield bond issued with a coupon below 5% since Ford did it four years ago.

此外，第一季也標誌著聯合航空重返無擔保市場。我們透過兩檔無擔保債券合計募得 20 億美元，這是我們自 2019 年以來首次進行無擔保發行。五年期債券定價為 5 3/8，而三年期債券則低於 5%，為 4 7/8。我們成功為聯合航空重設信用殖利率曲線，將我們與投資等級同業之間的信用利差差距壓縮至歷史低位。這是自福特在四年前做到以來，首檔票面利率低於 5% 的高收益債券發行。

Our execution exceeded our initial expectations as the market responded with incredible demand. This is the strongest evidence yet that the buy side appreciates that we're knocking on the door of investment grade. In the first quarter, we generated $2.9 billion in free cash flow. And while our free cash conversion in the near term will be pressured as fuel prices remain elevated, we remain committed to generating durable and growing free cash flow. To wrap up, our first-quarter performance remained resilient.

我們的執行成果超出最初預期，因為市場回應展現了驚人的需求。這是迄今最有力的證據，顯示買方認同我們正叩關投資等級。第一季我們創造了29億美元的自由現金流。雖然短期內在燃油價格仍維持高檔的情況下，我們的自由現金流轉換率將承受壓力，但我們仍致力於創造具韌性且持續成長的自由現金流。總結而言，我們第一季的表現依然展現韌性。

We are managing the business with the expectation that jet fuel remains elevated in the medium term. We're nimbly adjusting the network and cutting capacity that doesn't cover fuel costs all while continuing to invest in our people and our hard product. As we look to the future, United is positioned to deliver stable double-digit pretax margins, strong free cash conversion, and strong EPS growth on the other side of it.

我們在經營管理上，是以航空燃油在中期仍將維持高檔為前提。我們靈活調整航網並削減無法涵蓋燃油成本的運能，同時持續投資於我們的人才與我們的硬體產品。展望未來，聯合航空有望在此之後實現穩定的兩位數稅前利潤率、強勁的自由現金流轉換，以及強勁的每股盈餘（EPS）成長。

I'll now turn it to Kristina to kick off the Q&A.

接下來我把時間交給Kristina，開始問答環節。

Thanks, Mike. We will now take questions from the analyst community. (Event Instructions). Regina, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

謝謝你，Mike。我們現在開始接受分析師社群的提問。(活動說明)。Regina，請說明提問流程。

(Operator Instructions) Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

(接線員指示) Jamie Baker，摩根大通（JPMorgan）。

So Scott, in the CNBC interview where you articulated, do you have a larger brand that would capture passenger flows that are currently flying foreign competitors. It sounds like this is an idea that's still under development at United. But I'm curious could you envision a world where United might operate its own hub in Europe the way that Pan Am once did?

Scott，在你接受CNBC訪談時提到，你們是否會打造一個更大的品牌，以吸引目前搭乘外國競爭對手的旅客流量。聽起來這個想法在聯合航空仍在發展中。但我很好奇，你是否能想像聯合航空有一天會像泛美航空（Pan Am）曾經那樣，在歐洲營運自己的樞紐？

And second, do your existing partnerships with Star Alliance members? Do those relationships factor in at all to your thinking in this regard? I mean, I think the idea of capturing for inflows is fascinating. I'm just trying to think through how you might get there and maybe consolidation is the only way.

第二，你們與星空聯盟成員的既有合作夥伴關係呢？這些關係在你們對此的思考中是否有任何影響？我的意思是，我覺得吸引入境客流的想法很有意思。我只是想釐清你們可能如何達成，也許整併是唯一的方式。

Well, thanks, Jamie. I thought you were going to get through that without saying the C word. First, I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll open a foreign -- anywhere in that (inaudible). Our Star Alliance partnerships are great. They enable global reach and breadth. They enable us to fly to at -- give our customers the ability to fly to lots of cities around the globe that are never going to be picking up for United Airlines on our own to fly to and use fire miles to go to those kinds of places.

謝謝你，Jamie。我還以為你能講完而不提那個以C開頭的字。首先，我認為我們極不可能在海外開設——在那個(聽不清)。我們的星空聯盟夥伴關係非常好。它們讓我們具備全球的觸及與廣度。它們讓我們能夠飛往——讓客戶有能力飛往全球許多城市；這些城市我們不可能靠聯合航空單打獨鬥就能開航，並用哩程兌換去那些地方。

And so those are all great. And really, everything that I've said today are (inaudible) CNBC and Bloomberg this morning are all things that I've said in the past. I know people are now viewing it in a different light because of the rumors that came out last week. But everything that I said are things that I have said in the past.

所以這些都很棒。而且我今天說的所有內容——（聽不清）我今早在CNBC和Bloomberg說的——其實都是我過去就說過的。我知道大家現在因為上週傳出的傳聞，而用不同角度看待。但我說的每一件事，都是我以前就說過的。

And really, it comes from we've had this vision to build a great brand loyal airline, and it just worked incredibly well. Like if you look at our first-quarter results, like with this kind of increase in fuel prices, to deliver those kind of results to be able to look through to the full year with fuel prices doubling and still have reasonable confidence in $7 to $11 of earnings and stay focused on the long term. It's just -- it is dramatically different here at United than it was in the past.

而且這真的源自於我們一直有個願景：打造一家擁有強大品牌忠誠度的航空公司，而這個策略運作得非常成功。例如你看我們第一季的結果，在燃油價格這樣上漲的情況下，仍能交出那樣的成績；即使全年燃油價格翻倍，我們仍對7到11美元的獲利指引有合理信心，並且仍專注於長期。這裡——聯合航空現在的狀況，和過去相比，完全不同。

In the past, this would have been furloughing and deferring aircraft orders, cost-cutting exercises, and just all kinds of stuff to try to manage through the near-term noise. And it's dramatically different. And we've won by winning customers in all classes of service, by the way. We invest nose to tail. Like most of our investments apply to all customer: Starlink, seat-back entertainment in every seat, Wi-Fi, the best app in the world. They apply to every single customer on the airplane.

過去遇到這種情況，會是裁員停薪（furlough）、延後飛機訂單、各種削減成本的作法，還有一堆事情，只為了設法度過短期雜音。但現在完全不同。而且順帶一提，我們是靠在所有艙等都贏得客戶而取勝的。我們從機頭到機尾全面投資。我們的大多數投資都適用於所有旅客：Starlink、每個座位的椅背娛樂、Wi‑Fi、世界上最好的App。這些都適用於機上每一位旅客。

And because that strategy has worked -- I thought it would work, but it's worked even better than I thought. And you can see in our financial results, you can see it in the market share data. And any in all of our hubs where we had big competitors, same thing happened everywhere, not unique to competing with any one airline. It's happened everywhere. You can see it in the data.

而且因為這個策略奏效——我原本就認為會奏效，但實際效果比我想的更好。你可以在我們的財務結果中看到，也可以在市占率數據中看到。在我們所有樞紐，只要有大型競爭對手，各地都發生同樣的事，並非只是在與某一家航空公司競爭時才會如此。到處都是這樣。你可以從數據看得出來。

And it's worked even better than I thought, which -- because it's worked even better than I thought it would, it allows us to raise the bar on ourselves and aspire to something even bigger. And I think there is this big global trade deficit in the US. We compete some really good airlines in the Middle East and Asia. And they have some advantages that we don't have. And like I actually haven't said what it takes to do it.

而且它的效果比我想的更好——正因為比我預期更好，讓我們能對自己提高標準，並追求更宏大的目標。我認為美國存在很大的全球貿易逆差。我們在中東與亞洲要與一些非常優秀的航空公司競爭。他們有一些我們沒有的優勢。而且我其實還沒說清楚要怎麼做才能達成。

And I don't even know the answer. Anything that might be an answer comes with complications, and there's no certainty that any of them get there on their own. But it's an aspiration that we have at United. I've sort of talked about it and hinted at it at least in the past. It is an aspiration that I think United uniquely is in a position to take a run at. Dream big, that's the way you accomplish big things.

我甚至也不知道答案。任何可能的答案都伴隨複雜性，而且也不確定任何一個方案能否單靠自身就達成目標。但這是我們聯合航空的志向。我過去多少談過、也暗示過。我認為聯合航空在獨特條件下，有能力去嘗試衝一把。敢做大夢，才能成就大事。

Okay. And for my quasi-related follow up, it's on the take its administration that is readying a $500 million rescue package for Spirit. I've been with you for the last couple of years in terms of permanent and irreversible structural change. But how does the industry continue to evolve if the government chooses to prop up failing businesses who failures have nothing to do with fuel.

好的。那我再追問一個算是相關的問題：關於政府正在準備一項5億美元的救助方案給Spirit。過去幾年我一直同意你所說的永久且不可逆的結構性改變。但如果政府選擇去撐住那些失敗的企業，而其失敗與燃油無關，這個產業要如何持續演進？

Yeah. Well, first, I don't know what's going to happen there. And I think that we're proving right now that well-run airlines like United Airlines can even be profitable and certainly don't mail out in a time like this. And to your point, Spirit was I feel bad for the people of Spirit, but it's been pretty obvious that Spirit's business model was fundamentally flawed in the airline was not going to be able to make it or cover their cash operating costs. So I hope that doesn't happen.

是的。首先，我不知道那邊會發生什麼事。我認為我們現在正在證明，像聯合航空這樣經營良好的航空公司，即使在這種時期也能獲利，至少也不會——（聽不清）。而如你所說，我為Spirit的人感到難過，但其實很明顯Spirit的商業模式在根本上就有缺陷，這家航空公司無法生存，或無法負擔其現金營運成本。所以我希望那不要發生。

But if it does, we're going to keep focused on winning brand loyal airlines like -- this is -- for us, rental customers. For us, I don't think that this is nearly as big a deal as for others that are in the more commoditized space. If I was working at one of the airlines that depended on more commoditized travel, I'd be -- I rate probably about this. But for us, like I think we've so distanced ourselves from the rest of the industry that -- at least, policy.

但如果真的發生了，我們會持續專注於贏得品牌忠誠型旅客——像是——這對我們而言，是回頭客。對我們來說，我不認為這件事像對其他處於更商品化市場的業者那樣重要。如果我在一家更依賴商品化旅遊需求的航空公司工作，我會——我大概會對此非常擔心。但對我們而言，我認為我們已經與產業其他公司拉開了很大距離——至少在政策層面。

But I don't think it's going to have -- whether Spirit failed or (inaudible), I don't think it has much effect on United one way or another to be honest.

但老實說，我不認為這會——不論 Spirit 是失敗了還是（聽不清），我不覺得這對聯合航空（United）不管是哪一種情況都會有太大影響。

That's great, Scott. Thanks for the color.

太好了，Scott。謝謝你提供的補充說明。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

Conor Cunningham，Melius Research。

I'm pretty happy that I don't need to ask the Spirit question. In a world where fuel remains elevated for a long period of time. Just curious on how that changes your management style (inaudible). Just like your general view on profitability to the to the overall system. I assume you're refreshing that analysis for yourself all the time. Are you doing that for your competitors as well as you look for opportunities more broadly?

我很高興我不需要問 Spirit 的問題。在一個燃油價格長期維持在高檔的世界裡。我只是好奇這會如何改變你們的管理風格（聽不清）。以及你們對整體系統獲利能力的整體看法。我猜你一直都在更新這個分析。當你更廣泛地尋找機會時，你也會對競爭對手做同樣的分析嗎？

Yeah, I think the answer is affirmative on all of the above. We look at this daily, weekly, quarterly, monthly, you name it. As fuel prices go higher, the question is how will demand reacts. And at this point, we can tell you that the price increases are going well and demand hanging in there are really strong. What we've done is proactively canceled flights, particularly on off-peak days and off-peak times, expecting that there could be some demand weakness in those channels, we'll see.

是的，我想以上所有問題的答案都是肯定的。我們每天、每週、每季、每月都在看，你想得到的頻率我們都會看。當燃油價格走高時，問題在於需求會如何反應。而就目前而言，我們可以告訴你，加價進展順利，需求也撐得住、非常強勁。我們已經主動取消了一些航班，特別是在離峰日與離峰時段，因為預期那些通路可能會出現一些需求疲弱，我們再觀察。

So we think we're ahead of the curve here, and we'll continue to watch it and monitor it. But so far, so good and demand is hanging in.

所以我們認為在這方面我們走在曲線之前，並會持續關注與監控。但到目前為止，一切都還不錯，需求也撐得住。

Perfect. And then maybe just on the demand restructuring commentary a little bit. I'm trying to unpack it a little bit because in the past, you've talked about demand being somewhat inelastic price. And I realize you're not seeing it fall off now, but there's a lot of speculation that may happen.

很好。另外也許再談一下你剛才提到的需求重整（restructuring）的評論。我想再拆解一下，因為過去你們談到需求在價格上有些缺乏彈性。我知道你們現在沒有看到需求下滑，但市場上有很多猜測認為可能會發生。

So as you run your scenarios, is it -- like can you just talk a little bit about like how you expect premium, maybe the business traveler to change or I assume that the demand destruction really comes from the leisure side of the equation. So if you could just talk about how you -- how the scenarios kind of play out within your 2026 guidance.

所以當你們跑各種情境時，能不能稍微談談你們預期高端（premium）需求、也許商務旅客會如何變化？或者我猜需求破壞（demand destruction）主要會來自休閒端。所以如果你能談談在你們 2026 年指引中，這些情境大概會如何展開。

I think we're a bit in uncharted territory. I think we can tell you right now that all types of customers remain particularly strong. Like just in the last week or so, our yields are now up 20% year over year. But even more importantly, the business part of our business, business traffic is over the last two weeks, up 25%, business revenue up 25%, and that's accelerated from up 16% in quarter one and 9% late last year. So these price points are being absorbed and passed through and volumes are increasing.

我認為我們有點處在未知領域。但我想我們現在可以告訴你，各類型客戶都仍然特別強勁。就像在過去一週左右，我們的收益率（yields）現在年增 20%。但更重要的是，我們業務中的商務部分，過去兩週商務客流量年增 25%，商務營收也年增 25%，而這是從第一季年增 16%以及去年底年增 9%加速上來的。所以這些價格水準正在被市場吸收並傳導出去，而且量也在增加。

And for United, you'll recall, we had the unique headwind last year related to Newark, which we're going to lap in about 10 days, I believe. So it will create easier comps for at least United and maybe harder comps for others. But the numbers look really fantastic over the last few weeks. Now we'll have to keep watching it, particularly as summer ends. And like in order to maintain lease up yields at United, I felt like we needed less capacity on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays at off-peak times, and we've done that.

而對聯合航空來說，你會記得我們去年有一個與 Newark 相關的獨特逆風，我相信大約再過 10 天我們就會跨過（lap）那段期間。因此至少對聯合航空而言，對比基期會變得更容易，對其他公司可能反而更難。但過去幾週的數字看起來真的非常出色。當然我們還得持續觀察，特別是夏季結束之後。而且為了在聯合航空維持收益率上升，我覺得我們需要在週二、週三與週六的離峰時段減少運能，我們也已經這麼做了。

But look, business traffic is strong. Leisure traffic is bounce in the mid-single digits right now, which I think I'm happy with. And so we'll continue to watch it. It is uncharted territory given the massive amount of changes we've done, but we've had five broadly successful price increases. And right now, we are passing on yields that are up 20% year over year.

但你看，商務客流很強。休閒客流目前是中個位數成長，我覺得這樣我很滿意。所以我們會持續觀察。在我們做了大量變動之後，這確實是未知領域，但我們已經有五次相當成功的全面性漲價。而目前，我們傳導出去的收益率年增 20%。

Conor, this is Mike. I just want to pile on because you asked about the guidance policy. We've long had a guidance policy of building in an active guide into the guidance. And so what you're hearing from Andrew, what you're hearing from Scott, there's nothing in our bookings that suggests there's demand destruction. But I believe it's prudent to be prepared for that.

Conor，我是 Mike。我想補充一下，因為你問到指引政策。我們長期以來的指引政策，是在指引中納入一個主動的保守假設（active guide）。所以你從 Andrew、Scott 那邊聽到的內容是：我們的訂位資料沒有任何跡象顯示需求正在被破壞（demand destruction）。但我認為為此做好準備是審慎的。

But we are not seeing it. We're hopeful that we won't see it. The economy seems robust. The stock market is indicating the economy is robust. And it may be that that is an active guide we did not need to be prepared for. But that is our policy, and we need to be prepared for lots of scenarios.

但我們目前沒有看到。我們也希望不會看到。經濟看起來很強健。股市也顯示經濟很強健。也許那個我們為之準備的主動保守假設最後並不需要用上。但這就是我們的政策，我們必須為各種情境做好準備。

Great. Thank you, guys.

很好。謝謝各位。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker，Morgan Stanley。

Just on fuel, it appears the debate appears to be moving from fuel inflation to fuel availability. Just trying to get a sense of what kind of visibility you guys might have, especially out in Asia or Europe regarding potential fuel shortages and what the plan B might be in that case?

關於燃油，看起來市場辯論似乎正從燃油通膨轉向燃油可得性。我想了解你們對此的能見度大概如何，特別是在亞洲或歐洲，是否可能出現燃油短缺，以及若真發生時你們的備案（plan B）會是什麼？

Ravi, it's a great question. We've got really good visibility for four or five weeks. And you are right to say that this issue is centered on Europe and Asia. It's much less of an issue in the US. We don't see a lack of availability being an issue at all in the US, it's a price issue.

Ravi，這是個很好的問題。我們對未來四到五週有非常好的能見度。你說得對，這個議題主要集中在歐洲與亞洲。在美國這個問題小得多。我們完全不認為在美國會有供應不足的問題，這裡是價格問題。

However, even in Europe and Asia, as we sit here today, we think it is a price issue, not an availability issue. We think that as prices rise, and you're seeing the price of jet rise much more than the price of Brent as crack spreads widen out. And so we think that price is going to be a rationing function that means there will not be spot outages, but we're watching it closely. The longer the straight remains closed, the more that is of risk, and it is of risk in the regions you noted, Asia and Europe, not so much the US.

不過，即便在歐洲與亞洲，就我們今天所處的狀況來看，我們認為這仍是價格問題，而不是可得性問題。我們認為隨著價格上升——你也看到噴射燃油價格上升幅度遠高於布蘭特原油價格，因為裂解價差（crack spreads）正在擴大。因此我們認為價格會發揮配給（rationing）的功能，意味著不會出現現貨供應中斷，但我們正密切關注。海峽關閉的時間越長，風險就越高，而風險主要在你提到的區域：亞洲與歐洲，美國則沒那麼明顯。

Great. That's very helpful color, Mike. And maybe as a quick follow up. Scott, your first response. You said that you compete with some really good airlines in the Middle East. Obviously, they're having a little bit of an issue right now. Do you see any structural share gain opportunities in Transatlantic or even longer haul from some of those challenges or vice versa? Do you expect them to be aggressive when the situation settles down.

很好。Mike，這些補充說明非常有幫助。再快速追問一下。Scott，你一開始的回覆提到你們在中東面對一些很優秀的航空公司競爭。顯然他們現在遇到一些問題。你是否看到在跨大西洋、甚至更長程航線上，因為他們的挑戰而出現任何結構性的市占提升機會，或反過來呢？你是否預期等情勢穩定後，他們會採取更積極的策略？

I think it's temporary. And I think you look like what Dubai, not just Emirates, but Dubai -- city of Dubai have accomplished is remarkable and impressive. And if I had to make a bet, I'd bet on Dubai. I think it's going to come back fully. We'll come back immediately. It's temporary, but we'll come back fully.

我認為這是暫時性的。而且你看杜拜——不只是阿聯酋航空（Emirates），而是杜拜這座城市——所達成的成就非常卓越、令人印象深刻。如果要我下注，我會押杜拜。我認為它會完全恢復。會立刻回來。這是暫時的，但會完全恢復。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

So Scott, maybe this is a naive question, but why does the industry need a crisis to start pushing through such higher yields? Why can't we do it more sustainably? And then maybe just Scott, I'll lump it on to like one question. When I take your 10% pretax margin for next year. It sort of gets you to roughly $18 of earnings.

所以 Scott，也許這是個天真的問題，但為什麼這個產業需要一場危機，才開始推動這麼高的收益率？為什麼我們不能用更可持續的方式來做？然後也許就 Scott，我把它合併成一個問題。當我採用你對明年的 10% 稅前利潤率。大概會推算出約 18 美元的盈餘。

I know you don't want to get into specifics, but just at a high level, as fuel hopefully starts to normalize lower do you assume you hold on to this higher yield, or do we have to give some of that back?

我知道你不想談太多細節，但就高層次來看，隨著燃油（成本）希望開始回歸正常並下降，你是否假設可以維持這個較高的收益率，還是我們必須吐回其中一部分？

So I (inaudible) answer that first question. And maybe I can try on the second one. I've watched this for at least 25 years now. And I've come to the conclusion that -- I guess I'll start with the conclusion. Every airline CEO should have to have spent two years at a reasonably senior position in revenue management to understand it.

所以我先回答第一個問題（聽不清）。然後我也許可以試著回答第二個。我至少觀察這件事 25 年了。我得出的結論是——我想我先講結論。每一位航空公司 CEO 都應該在收益管理（revenue management）相當資深的職位上待過兩年，才能真正理解它。

At its core, most of them haven't. That's the reason it's harder to get fair set. And I think what happens at airlines is the math geeks that are really smart that run revenue management. I'm looking at one of them in the room sorry, (inaudible). He's awesome.

從根本來說，他們大多沒有。這就是為什麼更難把票價拉到合理水準。我認為航空公司裡發生的情況是：那些非常聰明、負責收益管理的數學怪才。我看著房間裡其中一位，抱歉，（聽不清）。他很厲害。

But I'm one of them to know that air travel demand is elastic and that there's room to price more appropriately for our cost of capital and to return our cost of capital. But the people in marketing and government affairs are better at telling the CEO, like that's a bad message. And so they're much better communicators to CEOs. And so the pressure internally in the organization is really hard to raise fares. I mean great right now, a couple of airlines that are raising fares like crazy and then they run a fair stale every week.

但我也是其中一員，所以我知道航空旅行需求是有彈性的，而且我們有空間把定價做得更符合我們的資本成本，並且回收資本成本。但行銷和政府事務的人更擅長跟 CEO 說：這樣的訊息不好。所以他們更會跟 CEO 溝通。因此在組織內部，要提高票價的壓力其實非常大。我是說，現在很棒，幾家航空公司瘋狂漲價，然後他們每週又跑一次促銷（fare sale）。

Like just the marketing team disconnected from the revenue management team and the marketing team are better marketers, and so they tend to win. It is really what happens. And so you see it in a crisis. And by the way, like another like sure, almost sure bet is in late October or November every year, there's going to be fare increases. And I have it figured this out 20, 25 years ago that in October, the teams finished the budget, and they roll it up to the CEO and the CFO, who pound the table and said that's an unacceptable result.

就像行銷團隊跟收益管理團隊脫節，而行銷團隊更會行銷，所以往往他們會贏。事情真的就是這樣。所以你會在危機時看到這種情況。順帶一提，另一個幾乎可以確定的賭注是：每年 10 月下旬或 11 月，都會有一波票價上調。我在 20、25 年前就弄明白了：10 月時團隊把預算做完，往上呈報給 CEO 和 CFO，他們拍桌子說這結果不可接受。

And they say, go (inaudible) fairs, which they do. But it takes -- that's not exactly a crisis, but it takes something like that. And it's goofy to me that, that's the way it happens. It's nonsensical. But I actually think that's the reason that happens in (inaudible) for a long time, and a crisis caused it to go up more.

然後他們就說，去（聽不清）票價，他們就照做。但這需要——那不完全算危機，但需要類似那樣的事情。對我來說這很荒謬，事情竟然是這樣發生的。這不合邏輯。但我其實認為，這就是為什麼這種情況在（聽不清）很長一段時間都會發生，而危機讓它上升得更多。

Now as to the question of does this hold next year? I think actually that this situation like this at least has the potential to be different and for pricing to hold more. First, like as I said earlier, I think or I said somewhere today, I forget ever I've talked that airfares in real terms are down 27% in 2025 versus pre-pandemic. And that had put a bunch of airlines either losing a lot of money or sort of breakeven is really kind of only a couple of airlines returning their cost of capital.

至於明年能不能維持的問題。我其實認為，像這次這樣的情況至少有可能不同，定價更有機會維持住。首先，就像我先前說的——我今天某處也說過，我忘了我在哪裡講的——2025 年的機票價格以實質（通膨調整後）計算，比疫情前低了 27%。這讓很多航空公司不是虧很多錢，就是大概打平；真正能回收資本成本的其實只有少數幾家。

And everyone has to eventually return your cost of capital. And so I think it is more likely than not this time. And certainly, the longer this lasts, the higher the probability goes that the pricing increases hold. We probably won't hold 100% if we'll normalize it. I told the team earlier today.

而每家公司最終都必須回收你的資本成本。所以我認為這次更可能會是如此。而且當這種狀況持續越久，票價上調能維持的機率就越高。我們大概不會 100% 都保留，會有些正常化。我今天稍早跟團隊說過。

And this is just my guess that if things went back to February normal. I think we get -- keep 20% of the price increase next year. And I think that's going to move towards 80%. And every day, it's ticking up longer this goes on. So we're not going to give guidance for next year. But I do think that we'll be double-digit margins next year, and your analysis is not unreasonable.

這只是我的猜測：如果一切回到 2 月那種正常狀態。我認為明年我們能——保留 20% 的漲價幅度。而我認為這會往 80% 的方向移動。而且每天、隨著這件事拖得越久，這個比例就會往上跳。所以我們不會對明年提供指引。但我確實認為明年會是雙位數利潤率，而你的分析並不不合理。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，Barclays。

Thanks for taking my question. Scott, I'm wondering if you could elaborate on winning brand loyal share and specifically as it equates to your Chicago O'Hare hub, especially now that there's a proposed FAA summer cap on operations there. I guess, a, how are you faring versus your competitor? And then b, how do you anticipate complying with that?

謝謝讓我提問。Scott，我想請你進一步說明你們如何贏得品牌忠誠客群的市占，特別是對應到你們在芝加哥奧黑爾（O'Hare）的樞紐，尤其現在 FAA 提出夏季營運量上限。我想，a，你們相較競爭對手表現如何？然後 b，你們預期要如何遵循那個限制？

So I mentioned more questions today than I like, but I'll do it. In -- it's (inaudible). We're still reviewing the order, but it does appear that we're not going to get to grow as much as we and our customers would like. But the real point is one you make, like we've won brand loyal share here in Chicago. And it's never been about the number of flights or the number of gates.

所以我今天回答的問題比我想要的還多，但我會回答。在——它是（聽不清）。我們仍在審視該命令，但看起來我們的成長幅度會不如我們和客戶所希望的那麼大。但真正的重點是你提到的：我們在芝加哥贏得了品牌忠誠客群的市占。而這從來都不是關於航班數或登機門數。

Number of gates and flights were the output of what was happening with brand loyal customers. And we have, by far, the best technology. We have by far the best service, the best reliability are the best product. And customers have overwhelmingly voted, not -- this isn't unique to Chicago. This happened in all of our hubs.

登機門數和航班數，是品牌忠誠客戶變化所帶來的結果。而我們擁有迄今最好的科技。我們有迄今最好的服務、最好的準點與可靠性、最好的產品。而客戶以壓倒性多數做出了選擇——這並非芝加哥獨有。這在我們所有樞紐都發生過。

Customers in all of our hubs have voted overwhelmingly for United. We got three big hubs. We have three different big competitors, each of which we won about 20 points of market share. Here in Chicago, we've actually won 38 points of market share with business travelers. So customers care about quality. Quality really matters. And we give great value to all customers, and so the brand loyal customers have switched and absolutely nothing about that changes here in Chicago.

我們所有樞紐的客戶都以壓倒性多數選擇了聯合航空（United）。我們有三個大型樞紐。我們有三個不同的大型競爭對手，而我們對每一個都贏下了大約 20 個百分點的市占。在芝加哥這裡，我們在商務旅客方面實際上贏下了 38 個百分點的市占。所以客戶在乎品質。品質真的很重要。而我們為所有客戶提供很高的價值，因此品牌忠誠客戶已經轉向我們，而在芝加哥這點完全不會改變。

But it does look like the FAA is going to not let us grow as much as we and our customers would have liked. And I wish we could grow more, but we can't. We've got other places we can grow and look forward to some time being able to grow more here. But nothing changes about the sort of structure here in Chicago. And the decade that we've spent winning brands or customers by creating a great airline for them.

但看起來 FAA 不會讓我們像我們和客戶所希望的那樣成長得那麼多。我希望我們能成長更多，但我們做不到。我們還有其他地方可以成長，也期待未來某個時點能在這裡成長更多。但芝加哥這裡的整體結構沒有任何改變。以及我們花了十年時間，透過打造一個很棒的航空公司來贏得品牌或客戶。

Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

Andrew Didora，美國銀行。

Maybe changing gears a little bit, throw this one out for Mike. Just doing to cost a little bit more on the maintenance side. Just trying to think about how this kind of trends, I know it can be lumpy throughout the year, but particularly as it trends as you cut five points of capacity throughout the rest of the year. I would think you get some leverage on the maintenance side or I'm not thinking about that the right way?

也許稍微換個話題，把這題丟給 Mike。只是維修端的成本可能會稍微多一點。我在想這種趨勢會怎麼走，我知道一年當中可能會有起伏，但特別是當你在今年剩餘時間把運能削減五個百分點時。我會以為維修端會有一些槓桿效益，還是我這樣想不對？

And just from a long-term kind of maintenance cost perspective, is this something we should think about growing maybe a couple of points more than your capacity growth? Just curious on that line item.

另外，從長期的維修成本角度來看，這是不是我們應該預期會比你們的運能成長再多成長個幾個百分點？只是對那個費用項目好奇。

Thanks, Andrew, for the question. And I'll make a few points. Firstly, you should broadly expect our CASM ex trends to move inversely with the amount of capacity that we take out. I think that's maybe obvious, but that's what happened in Q1. That's what you should expect for the remainder of the year.

謝謝你，Andrew，這個問題。我講幾點。第一，整體而言，你應該預期我們的 CASM（不含燃油）趨勢會與我們削減的運能量呈反向變動。我想這可能很明顯，但第一季就是這樣。今年剩餘時間你也應該這樣預期。

Number two, the sooner you take out flights, the further out those flights are, the more you can [variabilize] the cost. There's no doubt about that. But at United, we're winning brand loyal customers by investing in this business. And nothing about this crisis is long term. And so you can expect us to continue to invest in the business.

第二，你越早把航班撤掉、而且撤的是越往後的航班，你就越能把成本「變動化」。這點毫無疑問。但在聯合航空，我們是透過投資這門生意來贏得品牌忠誠客戶。而這次危機沒有任何事情是長期的。所以你可以預期我們會持續投資這門生意。

The final point I'll make you made around maintenance. I think at United, we have some unique opportunities to fight that trend, where maintenance cost is expanding as a percentage of our costs. Part of that is gauge, but part of that is what we're doing in global procurement and how we are working with the great tech ops team that we have. So I'm very optimistic we will not face that same trend at much of the industry faces.

最後你提到維修。我認為在聯合航空，我們有一些獨特的機會去對抗那種「維修成本占比擴大」的趨勢。一部分是機型（gauge）的因素，但另一部分是我們在全球採購上做的事，以及我們如何與我們優秀的技術維修營運團隊合作。所以我非常樂觀，我們不會面臨產業大多數公司所面臨的同樣趨勢。

Got it. Thank you for that. And then just my second question certainly seems like you were busy start of the year on the balance sheet. But just on the buyback, you had stepped it up this time last year and all the market volatility, but 1Q this year, very similar to the last few quarters. Just curious your thoughts on how you thought about the buyback.

了解。謝謝你的說明。那我的第二個問題是，你們今年一開始在資產負債表方面看起來確實很忙。但就庫藏股回購而言，你們去年這個時候有加大力道，且市場波動很大，但今年第一季看起來跟過去幾季非常類似。想請教你們是怎麼思考回購的。

Look, I think it's a great question, and it's valid. But we have two objectives with our buyback and our capital management. Number one, we are committed -- absolutely committed to getting to investment grade. And so we need to balance our buyback and our opportunism around buying shares when they're below intrinsic value with our commitment to get investment grade. And so what you saw in the first quarter was another example of how we're balancing that.

你看，我覺得這是個很好的問題，而且很合理。但我們在回購與資本管理上有兩個目標。第一，我們承諾——絕對承諾——要達到投資級。因此，我們必須在回購、以及在股價低於內在價值時逢低買回的機會主義，與我們達到投資級的承諾之間取得平衡。所以你在第一季看到的，就是我們如何平衡這兩者的另一個例子。

Really proud of the team for what we did with the two unsecured offerings. And I just want to reiterate that we are going to get to investment grade in all scenarios.

我為團隊在兩筆無擔保發行上的表現感到非常自豪。我也想再次強調：在所有情境下，我們都會達到投資級。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu，Jefferies。

Maybe another question for the revenue management geeks out there. You're removing five points of prime capacity through the end of the year. How do you think about what range fuel would need to settle in for United to return to that mid-single-digit capacity growth in the second half? And how do you think about irrational capacity coming back online? And how do you manage cost in that environment as well as you continue to invest?

也許給那些營收管理的同好一個問題。你們在今年年底前會移除五個百分點的核心（prime）運能。你們怎麼看燃油價格需要落在什麼區間，聯合航空才會在下半年回到中個位數的運能成長？以及你們怎麼看非理性運能重新回到市場？在你們持續投資的同時，你們又如何在那樣的環境中管理成本？

That's a lot of questions.

問題很多。

Sorry. Just pick one, it's okay.

抱歉。你挑一個回答就好，沒關係。

Look, I think we're going to watch demand really carefully. We know how price is created in the business, and we've cut this off-peak capacity because we want to make sure that we can sustain these type of yield increases that we see right now. And we'll continue to watch demand. And we're going to manage the business to hit the financial targets and margins that we have out there. And so if we can do that with more capacity, we'll gladly bring it back online.

你看，我們會非常仔細地觀察需求。我們知道這個產業的價格是怎麼形成的，而我們削減這些離峰運能，是因為我們想確保能維持目前看到的這種票價收益（yield）提升。我們會持續觀察需求。我們會管理這門生意，以達成我們對外設定的財務目標與利潤率。所以如果在更多運能下也能做到，我們會很樂意把運能加回來。

But where we are today, with just -- and the economic lesson that Scott gave you at the opening, I would say that there should be some level of demand reduction related to a 20% bear increase. We haven't seen it yet. And if we don't, a really great outcome, but we're planning for that. If it doesn't turn out to be the case, we'll appropriately adjust our plans.

但以我們目前的狀況——以及 Scott 在開場時給你的經濟學觀點——我會說，票價上漲 20% 應該會帶來某種程度的需求下滑。我們還沒看到。如果沒有，那會是非常好的結果，但我們正在為那種下滑做規劃。如果最後證明不是那樣，我們會適當調整我們的計畫。

Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

Tom Fitzgerald，TD Cowen。

I just want to ask a multipart question of Andrew about the commercial initiatives. If we bucket them into maybe merchandising fleet and MileagePlus would you by just walking us through the margin uplift you're kind of contemplating over the longer term from some of these initiatives that they pan out? Like just in terms of thinking out some of those Airbus aircraft on those routes, like how they compare to the aircraft they're replacing, things like that.

我想就商業計畫向 Andrew 問一個多段式問題。如果我們把它們分成例如商品化（merchandising）、機隊，以及 MileagePlus，你能否帶我們走一遍：從長期來看，當這些計畫逐步落地時，你們所設想的利潤率提升幅度？例如在那些航線上換上部分 Airbus 飛機，它們與所替換的機型相比如何之類的。

Yeah, I'll keep it really high level, but -- and I'm glad you asked the question because the current conditions are super interesting, but we've been working literally years on the seven initiatives that I had in my script earlier. And we are really proud of all of them. We think all of them are material, but properly merchandising our products and being able to sell them like we were unable to sell (inaudible) products, is valued in hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

可以，我會講得很高層次——我也很高興你問這題，因為當前環境非常有意思，但我們其實已經花了好幾年在我剛才講稿裡提到的七項計畫上。我們對每一項都非常自豪。我們認為每一項都很重要；而把我們的產品做好商品化、並能像過去無法那樣銷售（聽不清）產品一樣把它們賣出去，其價值每年可達數億美元。

And the new aircraft we bring on that are optimally configured for the premium demand that we're seeing is also a gigantic number. I'm going to avoid assigning value to each of them individually. Maybe we'll do Investor Day someday where we can talk about it in more detail. But all of those initiatives, and there are seven of them, and they're really all seven of them are very, very significant, are about setting our future up to reach not only double-digit margins, but ultimately mid-teen margins as we've talked about, and we are well on our way.

另外，我們引進的新飛機，若能以最符合我們所看到的高端需求來做最佳化配置，這也是一個非常巨大的數字。我會避免逐一為每項計畫單獨賦予價值。也許哪天我們會辦投資人日，屆時可以更詳細地談。但所有這些計畫——總共有七項，而且每一項都非常、非常重要——都是在為未來打好基礎，讓我們不僅能達到雙位數利潤率，最終如我們所談到的，達到十幾%的利潤率，而我們正走在正確的路上。

We've got it dialed in. We've, I think, figured this recipe out. We've segmented really effectively, and we're not done is also what I would tell you. We have other ideas in the works and plan another media day next year to talk about because we're really proud of all this. And there's RM stuff, the segmentation stuff, the willingness to pay, all of it giving customers in all cabins more choices is incredibly effective, and we're winning share all the time.

我們已經把它調校到位了。我想我們已經把這套配方摸透了。我們做了非常有效的客群分層，而且我也要告訴你，我們還沒做完。我們還有其他想法正在推進，並計畫明年再辦一場媒體日來談，因為我們對這些成果非常自豪。不論是 RM（營收管理）的東西、分層的東西、支付意願（willingness to pay），以及讓各艙等的客戶有更多選擇，這一切都非常有效，我們也一直在贏得市占。

So hopefully, that answers your question appropriately, but I'm going to say it's just really materially significant to lay the proper foundation for the future.

所以希望這樣能適切地回答你的問題；但我要說的是，這些對於為未來奠定正確基礎而言，確實具有非常重大的意義。

Michael Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

Michael Linenberg，德意志銀行。

Just one question here. Just on revenue recapture. I mean, thanks for outlining the progression for the year. What gives you confidence that you're going to get to 100%? Do you actually need maybe outside help, whether it's other carriers cutting capacity? And maybe just give us a sense of how you recovered Russia, Ukraine, how quickly you were able to recover it back in 2022 when we had the last major fuel spike?

這裡只有一個問題。關於營收回收（recapture）。我是說，謝謝你們概述了今年的進展路徑。你們憑什麼有信心能達到100%？你們是否其實需要一些外部助力，例如其他航空公司削減運能？另外也請你們談談俄羅斯、烏克蘭的回收情況，你們在2022年上一次出現重大燃油飆升時，是多快把它回收回來的？

I'm not going to count on other airlines for anything, that's for sure. But from our perspective of the fact that we've already gotten to a 20% yield increase, and what we've done is we've cut off key capacity to make sure that we can sustain these higher yields. I feel really confident. And I would say, look, before the fuel situation happened, I would tell you, fuel is a pass-through. And so I feel really confident we're passing it through.

我肯定不會指望其他航空公司做任何事。但從我們的角度來看，我們已經把收益率提高了20%，而我們所做的是削減關鍵運能，以確保能維持這些較高的收益率。我非常有信心。我會說，你看，在燃油情況發生之前，我會告訴你，燃油是可以轉嫁的。所以我非常有信心我們正在把它轉嫁出去。

Demand is hanging in there. We've made the appropriate capacity adjustments for United to make sure that we can get to full recovery by the end of the year, and we're well on our way already between 40% and 50%. And -- but the most optimistic thing is the fact that within a matter of at seven or eight weeks, we went from yields being up 2% to 3%, to yield being up 18% to 20%. It's pretty darn remarkable.

需求仍然撐得住。我們已為聯合航空做了適當的運能調整，以確保我們能在年底前完全回收，而我們已經走在正軌上，目前已回收約40%到50%。而且——但最令人樂觀的是，在七到八週的時間內，我們的收益率從上升2%到3%，變成上升18%到20%。這真的相當了不起。

Mike, the underlying point is that for a growing portion of our customer base this is a decommoditized business. The brand loyalty United. You get a better experience, you get better value. And I think that the results speak for themselves.

Mike，核心重點是：對我們越來越大一部分的客戶群而言，這已經不是一門同質化商品的生意（decommoditized）。對聯合航空的品牌忠誠度。你會得到更好的體驗，也得到更好的價值。我認為結果已經不言自明。

Great. Thanks, everyone.

很好。謝謝各位。

John Godyn, Citigroup.

John Godyn，花旗集團。

Thanks for taking my question here. I wanted to just follow up on the fuel pass-through. I think that commentary in that guidance was great. If we could maybe get a little bit of geographic color kind of how pass-throughs are evolving in your opinion, internationally versus in the domestic market.

謝謝讓我提問。我想就燃油成本轉嫁再追問一下。我覺得你們在指引中的評論很棒。如果可以的話，能否提供一些地理區域上的補充說明，談談你們認為轉嫁在國際市場相較於國內市場是如何演變的。

The capacity trends are very different. The fuel surcharge activity is very different. The hedging of the competitors is different. Maybe a little bit of color there would be helpful.

運能趨勢非常不同。燃油附加費的動態也非常不同。競爭對手的避險狀況也不同。如果能補充一些這方面的說明會很有幫助。

Look, I think the color I would add is I thought that the domestic would be quicker to move than international, and I was wrong. The international environment pricing -- well, both are strong. I want to be really clear. But the international environment is actually better than domestic, that the price increases have been more substantial and are covering more of the fuel burden than they are domestically. And I think that's really remarkable.

你看，我想我能補充的重點是：我原本以為國內市場會比國際市場更快反應，但我錯了。國際環境的定價——兩者都很強。我想說得非常清楚。但國際環境其實比國內更好，票價上調幅度更大，且覆蓋的燃油負擔比例也比國內更高。我覺得這真的很了不起。

I think there's been changes in the overseas pricing behavior that have actually surprised me, quite frankly, given that -- I don't know every detail, but given what I know about the industry. So I'm really pleased with that. And I do think these fares are going to be up. And as Scott said, depending on how long this lasts, the longer it lasts, the higher they'll be up and the longer it will stick, in my opinion. But the international environment is better than the domestic environment at this point.

我認為海外的定價行為出現了一些變化，坦白說，這讓我感到意外——以我對這個產業的了解，雖然我不掌握每個細節。所以我對此非常滿意。我也確實認為這些票價會維持在較高水準。而且如Scott所說，取決於這種情況持續多久，持續越久，票價上升幅度會越大，而且在我看來也會黏著更久。但就目前而言，國際環境比國內環境更好。

John, I can't help myself. But you mentioned hedging by foreign carriers. If they hedge Brent, they're not hedging jet fuel. The biggest portion of the move in jet fuel has been crack spreads. So I think this experience has proven once again that hedging is a poor policy.

John，我忍不住要補充一下。你提到外國航空公司的避險。如果他們避險的是布蘭特原油（Brent），那並不是在避險航空燃油（jet fuel）。這次航空燃油上漲的最大部分來自裂解價差（crack spreads）。所以我認為這次經驗再次證明，避險是一個不好的政策。

That's great color, guys. And if I could just follow up one more on the pass-through through the end of the year. it sounds like the assumptions embedded in that are status quo. Like you're not expecting all the other carriers to flash capacity or something like that, driving your pass-through. Is it safe to say that, or are there other kind of industry dynamics that you're looking for to kind of drive a 100% pass through by the end of the year?

這些補充很有幫助，各位。如果我可以再追問一個關於年底前轉嫁的問題：聽起來你們內含的假設是維持現狀。也就是說，你們並不預期其他航空公司會突然大幅調整運能之類的，來推動你們的轉嫁。可以這麼理解嗎？還是你們在觀察其他產業動態，以推動年底前達到100%轉嫁？

Look, I can't speak for other airlines. We've engaged in self-health. We know what it takes to pass on these price increases by what we're going to fly. And we're out here to hit our financial targets and hit a double-digit margin next year, as Scott said. So I don't know what the goals and motivations and missions of the other airlines are. I won't speak for them, but that's ours. And we're going to manage our capacity to achieve our goals independent of what the industry does.

你看，我無法替其他航空公司發言。我們已經做了自我調整（self-health）。我們知道要把這些漲價轉嫁出去，需要靠我們將要飛的運能配置來達成。我們在這裡是為了達成財務目標，並如Scott所說，明年達成雙位數利潤率。所以我不知道其他航空公司的目標、動機與任務是什麼。我不替他們發言，但這是我們的目標。而且我們會管理我們的運能，以在不依賴產業作為的情況下達成我們的目標。

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

Chris Wetherbee，富國銀行。

Maybe just sort of sticking on the theme of the fuel pass-through and ultimately, retention rates, you talked about holding on to 20 and maybe that going to 80 over time. I just want to understand the mechanism behind that? Is it just simply duration? Is it sort of competitive actions around capacity and others take? Is it other price actions you could use like bag fees or other ancillaries that kind of stick even when prices come down.

也許延續燃油轉嫁這個主題，以及最終的留存率（retention rates），你提到保留20，並且可能隨時間推進到80。我想了解背後的機制是什麼？只是單純因為時間拉長嗎？還是競爭對手在運能等方面的行動？或者你們還能採取其他價格手段，例如行李費或其他附加收入（ancillaries），即使價格回落也能維持？

I just want to understand that dynamic of how you can hold on for longer.

我只是想了解你們如何能更長時間地把它保留下來的這種動態。

Well, I think the longer the price of fuel remains in this range and the longer consumers pay these prices and airlines get used to this revenue stream, the more likely it is to stick. That's the simple perspective on it. I do think that international is running really well above domestic, as I said a few minutes ago. So it will be interesting to see if that normalizes.

嗯，我認為燃油價格在這個區間維持得越久、消費者支付這些價格的時間越長、航空公司越習慣這條收入來源，就越有可能黏著不下來。這是最簡單的看法。我確實認為，如我幾分鐘前所說，國際市場的表現明顯優於國內。所以看看是否會回歸常態，會很有意思。

But the environment right now, I think airlines want to return their cost of capital and particularly here in the United States, most don't. And that is unsustainable in the long run. So something had to change. It's unfortunate it had to be an oil crisis, but here we are.

但就目前環境而言，我認為航空公司希望獲得其資本成本的回報，尤其是在美國，大多數公司做不到。而這在長期來看是不可持續的。所以必須有所改變。很不幸必須透過一場石油危機來促成，但現況就是如此。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth，Evercore ISI。

Just on the mileage plan changes, which seemed like they were motivated to get more people to sign up. Can you speak to the changes you're seeing in credit card update since you've made those. And I wonder if you could give us your current thinking about the timeline for a new comprehensive agreement.

關於里程計畫的變更，看起來是為了促使更多人註冊加入。你能談談自從做了這些變更後，你們在信用卡更新（update）方面看到的變化嗎？另外我想請教，你們目前對於一份新的全面性協議的時間表有何看法？

Look, we've been working on the MileagePlus changes for well over a year. We thought we would engage in whatever activities we could control outside of a new contract. And numbers, the uplift, the spend has been incredible. We're really, really happy. With that, let's -- it's really new.

你看，我們在MileagePlus的變更上已經投入超過一年。我們認為在新合約之外，我們會盡可能推動任何我們能掌控的活動。各項數字、提升幅度、消費金額都非常驚人。我們真的、真的很滿意。至於這個——現在還很新。

So hopefully, in a few quarters, I can still describe it as incredible. I expect I will be able to do so. But these are changes that I think are really motivating for our frequent fliers, and we're at a record penetration rate of cardholders that are premier members at United. So I'm really happy with it.

所以希望在接下來幾個季度後，我仍然可以用「令人難以置信」來形容它。我預期我會做得到。但我認為這些變化對我們的常旅客真的很有激勵作用，而且我們的持卡人中屬於聯合航空（United）優先會員（Premier members）的滲透率已創下新高。所以我對此非常滿意。

I think the details regarding our deal with Chase are largely confidential, but I think you can Google the expiration date and know that it's not tomorrow, but it's not that far off. And we're working with Chase. They're a great partner and run a really sophisticated program, which is required by United given the size and magnitude of our co-brand portfolio. We look forward to what the future brings.

我想我們與 Chase 的協議細節大多屬於機密，但我想你可以上網查到到期日，並知道它不是明天到期，但也不是那麼遙遠。而我們正在與 Chase 合作。他們是很棒的合作夥伴，並且營運一個非常成熟精密的計畫；以聯合航空的聯名卡組合之規模與量級而言，這是必要的。我們期待未來的發展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Goldie, BMO Capital Markets.

Michael Goldie，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you for the question. By the end of the year, your aircraft count will be up some 8%. How do you think about the operating leverage of these assets in a recovery versus the decremental drag if flight activity remains constrained. And then related, how are you thinking about managing labor requirements as you take on this new equipment while managing capacity?

謝謝你的提問。到今年年底，你們的機隊數量將增加約 8%。你們如何看待在復甦情境下這些資產的營運槓桿效益，相對於若航班活動仍受限時的遞減拖累（decremental drag）？另外相關地，當你們引進這些新設備並管理運能時，你們如何思考管理人力需求？

Michael, I'll take the fleet question, and I'll try to answer the labor question. In an elevated fuel environment, it only exacerbates the advantage of new fuel-efficient equipment versus older equipment. And so you can see in our fleet plan, we expect to continue to take delivery. We're really pleased with Boeing increasing production rates on a narrow body. They've been a great partner to us.

Michael，我先回答機隊的問題，也會試著回答人力的問題。在燃油價格偏高的環境下，新型省油設備相較於舊設備的優勢只會更加凸顯。因此你可以從我們的機隊計畫看到，我們預期會持續接收交付。我們對波音提高窄體機產能（生產速率）感到非常高興。他們一直是我們很棒的合作夥伴。

It is financially advantageous to take the new aircraft, both from a margin and a return on invested capital standpoint. So you will see that. Now the other end of the spectrum are older aircraft. There's an opportunity to fly those aircraft in a capital efficient way by managing the maintenance at the end of the life to maximize the value we get out of those aircraft. You can bring the utilization down, have extra spares and have additional flexibility to fly the golden hour and to manage peaks.

接收新飛機在財務上是有利的，無論從利潤率或投入資本報酬率（ROIC）的角度來看都是如此。所以你會看到我們這麼做。而在另一端則是較老的飛機。透過在壽命末期管理維修，以最大化我們從這些飛機取得的價值，就有機會以資本效率更高的方式來運用這些飛機。你可以降低使用率、保留更多備用機，並擁有額外的彈性來執飛黃金時段（golden hour）以及管理尖峰。

So I think we're in an enviable position from a fleet standpoint, you shouldn't see us change anything. When it comes to managing labor and labor efficiency around that fleet, we've got a very sophisticated team and we make sure we are hired across all work groups at the appropriate level to make sure that we're managing -- while we invest in the customer, we're investing in the hard product, we're investing in our people. We need to make sure that we manage the workforce efficiently. And I think we do that very, very well here at United.

所以我認為就機隊而言，我們處於令人稱羨的位置，你不應該會看到我們改變任何事情。至於圍繞該機隊的人力管理與人力效率，我們有一個非常成熟精密的團隊，並確保在所有工作群組以適當的水準進行招募，以確保我們在投資客戶、投資硬體產品、投資我們的人員的同時——我們也必須確保有效率地管理人力。我認為聯合航空在這方面做得非常、非常好。

This concludes the analyst portion of this call.

本次電話會議的分析師提問部分到此結束。

And we will now switch to the media portion of the call. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在將切換到媒體提問部分。（接線員指示）

Leslie Josephs, CNBC.

Leslie Josephs，CNBC。

Just on the Spirit potential bailout, I guess, at this point looks like the administration is moving towards that. One, what's your comment on that? And two, does that change any of your assumptions for capacity or do you think there's going to be more capacity than you expected out in the market just because there was a liquidation risk earlier this year, recent weeks?

關於 Spirit 可能獲得紓困，我想目前看起來政府正朝那個方向推進。第一，你對此有何評論？第二，這是否會改變你對運能的任何假設？或者你是否認為市場上的運能會比你原先預期更多，因為今年稍早、最近幾週之前曾有清算風險？

And then second, just had a demand question. If there's any geography where you are seeing a pullback. I think you mentioned that international was a bit stronger than domestic at least on yield. So curious if there's been any softness in any area.

第二個問題是需求方面。是否有任何地區你們看到需求回落？我想你提到國際線至少在收益率上比國內線更強一些。所以想了解是否有任何區域出現疲軟。

Leslie, I'll briefly -- I just said earlier in the call, you may have not been on. But it's more (inaudible), I suppose. But in brief on Spirit, well-run airlines are still solidly profitable even in this environment. As you see from United, I don't think this crisis anywhere near big enough to cause the need for an airline bailout. And (inaudible) lots of coach for me over the past several years, going back into the last administration that the Spirit business model is fundamentally fans going to fail.

Leslie，我簡短回應——我在稍早的電話會議中已提過，你可能當時不在線上。但我想那更多是（聽不清楚），我猜。簡而言之，關於 Spirit，經營良好的航空公司即使在這種環境下仍然穩健獲利。從聯合航空的表現你也看得到，我不認為這場危機嚴重到需要航空業紓困。而且（聽不清楚）在過去幾年我一直被很多人提醒，甚至可追溯到上一屆政府時期：Spirit 的商業模式從根本上就是注定會失敗。

I feel bad for the people. A lot of them will land jobs of airlines every time that we have a new hire by class, and I go to talk to them, I ask where people are from. And there's a lot of Spirit hands that get raised in the room. And -- but I don't think it's necessary. I also don't think it's terribly relevant to a brand loyal airline one way or another, like United.

我為那些員工感到難過。他們很多人都會在航空公司找到工作；每次我們有新進人員分班（new hire by class），我去跟他們談話時，我會問大家來自哪裡。現場會有很多曾在 Spirit 工作的人舉手。但是——我不認為這是必要的。我也不認為這對像聯合航空這種以品牌忠誠度為主的航空公司而言，在任何一個方向上有多大相關性。

On demand, look, in the Middle East aside, we're seeing strength everywhere. But what I'll point out is we're really seeing strength in premium cabins going forward into Q2, particularly across specific and across the Atlantic. We're teeing up to, I think, a really strong performance. And United has already gone into this summer season with a pretty conservative global long-haul capacity number, I think, actually down year over year.

在需求方面，除了中東之外，我們在各地都看到強勁表現。但我要指出的是，我們確實看到高端艙等在進入第二季（Q2）時持續走強，特別是在特定（聽不清楚）以及跨大西洋航線上。我認為我們正準備迎接非常強勁的表現。而聯合航空在進入今年夏季時，全球長程運能數字其實相當保守，我想實際上還年減。

So I think we're actually really set up to produce some very good numbers, and we have very good business demand going into the blurs cabins is my answer.

所以我認為我們其實已經很到位，能夠交出一些非常好的數字；而我們在商務需求方面也非常強勁，進入（聽不清楚）艙等——這就是我的回答。

And I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing comments.

現在我將把電話會議交回給 Kristina Edwards 作結語。

Thanks, Regina. As always, we don't control the environment, but we do control how we perform in it. I appreciate your interest today, and we will see you next quarter.

謝謝你，Regina。一如往常，我們無法控制外部環境，但我們可以控制自己在其中的表現。感謝各位今天的關注，我們下個季度再見。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。