聯合航空 (UAL) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings earnings conference call for the third quarter 2026. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference facilitator today. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加聯合航空控股（United Airlines Holdings）2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Regina，今天將擔任本次會議的主持人。（接線員指示）

This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed, or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

本通話將被錄音並受著作權保護。請注意，未經公司許可，不得對本通話的任何部分進行錄音、逐字稿轉錄或再廣播。您參與本通話即表示您同意我們對本通話進行錄音。若您不同意這些條款，請直接掛線離開。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Edwards, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把簡報交給今天的主持人——投資人關係董事總經理 Kristina Edwards。請開始。

Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's third-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements which represent the company's current expectations, which are based upon information currently available to the company.

謝謝你，Regina。各位早安，歡迎參加聯合航空 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。昨天我們發布了財報新聞稿，可在我們網站 ir.united.com 取得。昨天新聞稿中的資訊以及本次電話會議中的發言，可能包含前瞻性陳述，代表公司目前的預期，並係基於公司目前可得之資訊。

A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q, and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors. Unless otherwise noted, we'll be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call, and historical operational metrics will include pandemic years of 2020 to 2022.

多項因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期出現重大差異。關於這些因素更完整的說明，請參閱我們的財報新聞稿、Form 10-K 與 10-Q，以及 United Airlines Holdings 與 United Airlines 向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的其他報告。除非另有說明，本次電話會議將以非 GAAP 基礎討論財務指標，而歷史營運指標將包含 2020 至 2022 年的疫情年度。

Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures at the end of our earnings release. Joining us today to discuss our results here in Houston and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Leskinen. We also have other members of the executive team on the line available for Q&A.

請參閱我們財報新聞稿末尾所列之相關定義，以及這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比 GAAP 指標之調節表。今天在休士頓與各位討論我們的業績與展望的，包含執行長 Scott Kirby；總裁 Brett Hart；執行副總裁暨商務長 Andrew Nocella；以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Mike Leskinen。我們也有其他高階主管在線上，供問答環節使用。

And now, I'd like to put the call over to Scott.

接下來，我想把電話交給 Scott。

Thanks, Kristina, and thank you all for joining us on the call today. It's been an eventful year, but it's once again given us the opportunity to demonstrate how de-commoditizing and becoming a true brand loyal airline was a structural change for United that gives us resilience in volatile times, and I expect it will lead to strong results in a normalized environment.

謝謝你，Kristina，也謝謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議。今年發生了許多事，但也再次讓我們有機會證明：去商品化並成為真正具品牌忠誠度的航空公司，對聯合航空而言是一項結構性變革，使我們在波動時期更具韌性；我也預期在環境回歸常態時，這將帶來強勁的成果。

We've built an airline that our employees are proud of, and they're delivering and have made United the leading airline around the globe. Before I start, I want to congratulate Boeing on the certification of the MAX 10. It's a fantastic aircraft, and we look forward to taking our first delivery next year.

我們打造了一家讓員工引以為傲的航空公司；他們持續交付成果，並讓聯合航空成為全球領先的航空公司。在開始之前，我想祝賀波音完成 MAX 10 的適航認證。這是一款非常出色的飛機，我們期待明年接收首架交付。

On this call, we'll talk a lot about 2026 and the current environment, but I want to take a couple of minutes to focus on 2027 and specifically answer the question: What will it take for us to reach our goal of double-digit pre-tax margins next year? We live and breathe no excuses, and the one thing you'll never hear us say or use as a planning excuse is, if it were not for fuel. Instead, we're planning for and actually expect fuel to remain elevated for all of 2027.

在本次電話會議中，我們會談很多關於 2026 年與當前環境的內容，但我想先花幾分鐘聚焦 2027 年，並具體回答一個問題：要達成我們明年稅前利潤率達到兩位數的目標，需要什麼條件？我們奉行「不找藉口」，而你們永遠不會聽到我們說、或把它當作規劃藉口的是：「如果不是因為燃油」。相反地，我們在規劃時假設、且實際上也預期 2027 年全年燃油價格仍將維持在高檔。

It also appears that industry capacity will accelerate. Obviously, either of those things could change and get us to double-digit pre-tax margins, but we're not counting on it. So what would it take to get there in a higher fuel and capacity environment? To be blunt, even though we're outperforming, the traditional way of looking at it would be hard. Though in fairness, I have been pleasantly surprised at the industry's ability this year to raise yields and pass through much of the increase in fuel prices.

同時，看起來全產業運能也將加速成長。顯然，這兩件事任何一項都可能改變，並讓我們更容易達到兩位數稅前利潤率，但我們不會把希望寄託在這上面。那麼，在燃油與運能都偏高的環境下，要達成目標需要什麼？坦白說，即便我們表現優於同業，若用傳統方式來看會很困難。不過公平地說，我對今年產業能夠提高票價收益（yields），並將燃油價格上漲的大部分轉嫁出去的能力感到驚喜。

So it's possible that airlines will continue to focus on yields at the expense of load factor, and that alone could get us to double-digit margins next year. But we're not going to assume that will happen. You've heard me say in the past that hope is not a strategy. Instead, we're focused on things we can control, and those are the big investments we've made over the past several years in products, service, and technology.

因此，航空公司可能會持續把重點放在提升票價收益，而犧牲載客率（load factor）；僅此一點就可能讓我們明年達到兩位數利潤率。但我們不會假設事情一定會如此發展。你們過去聽我說過，希望不是策略。相反地，我們專注在可控的事情上，也就是過去幾年我們在產品、服務與科技方面所做的大型投資。

And one of those things is Starlink, a new and truly differentiating RASM tailwind in 2027. Today, about half of United departures are on Starlink-equipped aircraft, but we offer more Starlink flights than the entire US airline industry combined. We currently expect to reach 61% of departures by the end of '26, 87% by June 1, and available fleet-wide by the end of 2027. Importantly, we're also seeing evidence that Starlink is a motivating factor for customers to choose which airline they fly.

其中之一就是 Starlink——在 2027 年將帶來全新且真正具差異化的 RASM 順風。目前，聯合航空約有一半的航班起飛是由配備 Starlink 的飛機執飛，但我們提供的 Starlink 航班數量，已超過整個美國航空業的總和。我們目前預期，到 2026 年底可覆蓋 61% 的起飛航班；到 6 月 1 日達到 87%；並在 2027 年底前於全機隊全面提供。重要的是，我們也看到證據顯示，Starlink 是促使旅客選擇搭乘哪一家航空公司的動機因素。

That's why we launched a new tracker so people can check if their flight has it and can follow along as we outfit our fleet. It's hard to get brand loyal customers to switch airlines, and while it's mostly anecdotal, we're seeing two important things happen. One, customers who are brand loyal to other airlines and have flown them for years switch to a United flight solely because of Starlink.

因此我們推出了新的追蹤工具，讓大家可以查詢自己的航班是否配備，並可隨時追蹤我們為機隊加裝的進度。要讓對某個品牌高度忠誠的旅客改搭其他航空公司並不容易；雖然多半是軼聞，但我們看到兩件重要的事情正在發生。第一，長年忠於其他航空公司的旅客，僅僅因為 Starlink 就改搭聯合航空的航班。

And two, once they try us, they stick with us because they also experience great service and all the nose-to-tail things we've invested in for years, like new aircraft, larger seat back screens in every class of service, oversized bins, technology like ConnectionSaver, and a mobile app that's dramatically better than anything they've experienced before.

第二，一旦他們嘗試搭乘我們，就會留下來，因為他們同時也體驗到優質服務，以及我們多年來從機頭到機尾所投入的一切，例如新機型、各艙等更大的座椅背螢幕、加大型置物櫃、像 ConnectionSaver 這樣的技術，以及一個比他們過去用過的任何東西都明顯更好的行動 App。

We know that eventually high-speed, low-Earth orbit Wi-Fi will be industry standard for everyone. But for 2027, and really 2028, we're well on our way to being the only global US airline with Starlink at scale. So a lot of new customers are going to try us. It's a huge head start, and we're going to press our advantage wherever we can.

我們知道，最終高速低地球軌道（LEO）Wi‑Fi 會成為全產業的標準配備。但在 2027 年，甚至到 2028 年，我們正穩步邁向成為唯一一家在全球規模化部署 Starlink 的美國全球型航空公司。因此，會有大量新客戶來嘗試搭乘我們。這是一個巨大的先行優勢，我們會在所有可能的地方擴大並運用這項優勢。

While others are just ramping up on their LEO Wi-Fi installations, we'll be onto our next wave of product and technology to sustain our lead and further deepen the competitive moats around our business. Our mission will be to show new customers the very best of United and then earn their long-term loyalty by demonstrating that we're the number one airline in everything else as well.

當其他同業才剛開始加速安裝其 LEO Wi‑Fi 時，我們將進入下一波產品與科技升級，以維持領先並進一步加深我們業務周圍的競爭護城河。我們的使命是向新客戶展現聯合航空最好的一面，並透過證明我們在其他各方面同樣是第一名，來贏得他們的長期忠誠。

With both fuel and industry capacity expected to be elevated next year, will that share shift happen fast enough to get us to double-digit pre-tax margins? While I do expect a meaningful RASM tailwind from Starlink in 2027, to be honest, it probably isn't enough on its own.

在預期明年燃油與產業運能都維持高檔的情況下，這樣的市占轉移會發生得夠快，讓我們達到兩位數的稅前利潤率嗎？雖然我確實預期 Starlink 會在 2027 年帶來顯著的 RASM 順風，但坦白說，單靠它本身可能還不夠。

To get there in 2027, we probably also need at least one of the three following things to happen: lower fuel, lower industry capacity, or a continued willingness for the industry to trade load factor for yield. Regardless of what happens on how big the RASM benefits are in 2027, however, our series of big customer investments, including Starlink and some big new ideas we haven't even announced yet that are coming in the not-too-distant future, have emerged as a new tailwind to a plan that was already working at United.

要在 2027 年達成該目標，我們可能也至少需要以下三件事中的一件發生：燃油成本下降、產業運能下降，或產業持續願意以載客率換取收益率。不過，無論 2027 年 RASM 的受益幅度最終有多大，我們一系列大型客戶投資（包括 Starlink，以及一些我們甚至尚未宣布、但在不久的將來即將推出的重要新構想）已成為一項原本在聯合航空就已奏效之計畫的新增順風。

We expect to exit 2027 with more brand loyal customers than we otherwise would have had, and expect that to lead to higher RASM in 2027 and beyond. And with that, I'll pass it over to Brett.

我們預期在 2027 年結束時，品牌忠誠客戶數將高於原本可能達到的水準，並預期這將帶動 2027 年及其後的 RASM 更高。接下來我把時間交給 Brett。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. First, I want to thank all of our United employees for their tremendous work throughout the quarter. Our team demonstrated exceptional resilience and adaptability, working together to restore our operation and get our customers to their destinations. United ranked second in on-time departures for the third quarter, with United being first among the top seven US carriers in July.

謝謝你，Scott，各位早安。首先，我要感謝所有聯合航空員工在本季的卓越付出。我們的團隊展現了非凡的韌性與適應力，攜手合作恢復營運，並將客戶送達目的地。聯合航空在第三季準點起飛排名第二，且在 7 月於美國前七大航空公司中排名第一。

We also delivered our second-best third-quarter post-pandemic seat cancellation rate in United history, ranking first amongst the three largest US carriers for the quarter. Ultimately, the strength of our operation is reflected in our customer satisfaction results. In the third quarter, we saw our highest quarterly NPS score since 2022 amidst record passenger growth.

我們也創下聯合航空史上疫情後第二佳的第三季座位取消率，並在本季於美國三大航空公司中排名第一。最終，我們營運的強勁表現在客戶滿意度結果上有所反映。在第三季，在旅客量創新高的情況下，我們看到自 2022 年以來最高的單季 NPS 分數。

Our people remain at the center of everything we do. In August, we completed the first phase of our expanded pilot training center in Denver, increasing our capacity to train up to 860 pilots per day with 86 flight simulation training devices, 52 of which are full-motion simulators. This investment supports both our existing workforce and our ability to develop the talent needed for United's future.

我們的員工始終是我們一切工作的核心。8 月，我們完成了丹佛擴建飛行員訓練中心的第一階段，使我們每日可訓練的飛行員人數提升至最多 860 人，並配備 86 台飛行模擬訓練設備，其中 52 台為全動式模擬器。這項投資同時支持我們現有的人力，並強化我們培育聯合航空未來所需人才的能力。

Transportation Secretary Duffy and FAA Administrator Bedford announced that they are seeking an additional $30 billion in improvements for our nation's air traffic control system. A safer and more resilient ATC system will benefit United's customers and operations, and we're actively engaged with the administration and both sides of the aisle in Congress to advocate for this much-needed funding.

運輸部長 Duffy 與 FAA 署長 Bedford 宣布，他們正尋求額外 300 億美元，用於改善我國的空中交通管制系統。更安全且更具韌性的 ATC 系統將使聯合航空的客戶與營運受益，我們也正積極與政府部門以及國會兩黨合作，倡議取得這筆迫切需要的資金。

It's especially exciting to be here in Houston today as we celebrate a major milestone in the transformation of Terminal B at George Bush Intercontinental Airport. This project represents a significant investment in one of our most important hubs, and we believe it will fundamentally improve the experience for millions of customers traveling through Houston.

今天能在休士頓與各位一同慶祝喬治布希洲際機場 B 航廈改造的重要里程碑，令人特別振奮。此專案代表我們對最重要樞紐之一的重大投資，我們相信它將從根本上改善數百萬名經由休士頓轉機旅客的體驗。

We're making significant investments across our hub network, including at Washington Dulles, where we're also advancing a major airport transformation and expect to open a new concourse with 14 additional gates next month. Together, these investments reflect our continued execution of our strategy to build a stronger airline positioned for long-term profitable growth.

我們正於各大樞紐網路進行重大投資，包括在華盛頓杜勒斯機場，我們也在推進一項大型機場改造計畫，並預計下個月啟用一座新增 14 個登機門的新航廊。綜合而言，這些投資反映我們持續落實策略，打造更強健、具備長期獲利成長定位的航空公司。

With that, I will turn it over to Andrew.

接下來我把時間交給 Andrew。

Thanks, Brett. United's top-line Q3 revenues increased by 17.4% year over year to a record $17.9 billion. TRASM increased by 15.9% with yields up 17%. Passenger load factor fell modestly. Consumers and businesses have been accepting price increases, which we believe is a result of fares lagging the rest of inflation, along with other aspects of travel costs for many years. Looking at revenues by cabin in Q3, premium revenue, including Economy Plus, increased 17% on a 2.5% increase in capacity.

謝謝，Brett。聯合航空第三季（Q3）營收（top-line）年增 17.4%，達到創紀錄的 179 億美元。TRASM 成長 15.9%，收益率上升 17%。旅客載客率小幅下降。消費者與企業已接受票價上調，我們認為這是因為多年來機票價格落後於整體通膨，以及旅遊成本的其他面向。以第三季按艙等拆分營收來看，高端營收（含 Economy Plus）在運能增加 2.5% 的情況下成長 17%。

Premium PRASM increased 14.1%. Non-premium revenue increased 18.4% on a half a point increase in capacity with RASM up 17.8%. Against a backdrop of strong premium cabin revenue growth, it was nice to see standard economy cabin RASMs up. Recall that in Q1 of 2026 was the first time in 12 quarters that economy cabin RASMs were positive.

高端 PRASM 上升 14.1%。非高端營收在運能增加 0.5 個百分點的情況下成長 18.4%，RASM 上升 17.8%。在高端艙等營收強勁成長的背景下，看到標準經濟艙的 RASM 也上升，令人欣慰。回顧 2026 年第一季（Q1），那是 12 個季度以來經濟艙 RASM 首次轉正。

In other words, yields still have a long way to go to catch up with inflation, whether measured before or after the pandemic. Expect economy RASM to outpace premium once again in Q4. Looking at revenues by travel purpose, business revenue increased by 22% in the quarter, with yields up 15%. Contracted business revenues increased by 26%.

換言之，無論以疫情前或疫情後來衡量，收益率距離追上通膨仍有很長一段路要走。預期第四季（Q4）經濟艙 RASM 將再次超越高端艙等。按旅行目的來看，本季商務營收成長 22%，收益率上升 15%。合約商務營收成長 26%。

Premium business continues to be strong with load factors in the premium cabins up a little over half a point year over year and up 3.6 points since 2019. Business load factor in the quarter increased by almost a point. While Starlink is important to all of our customers, it is critical for our business customers, which we believe will be a key driver of revenue and share growth in 2027. Leisure revenues were up 16% with stronger year-over-year yield gains than business traffic.

高端商務需求持續強勁，高端艙等載客率年增略高於 0.5 個百分點，且較 2019 年提升 3.6 個百分點。本季商務載客率提升近 1 個百分點。雖然 Starlink 對所有客戶都很重要，但對我們的商務客戶而言更是關鍵；我們相信這將成為 2027 年營收與市占成長的重要驅動因素。休閒營收成長 16%，其收益率年增幅度強於商務客流。

Leisure load factor fell modestly by 1.3 points, which reveals a small amount of elasticity given higher ticket prices, a trade we would make every day. Cargo revenues increased by 23% year over year, with most of the increase occurring in yields as our global long-haul capacity growth was minimal in the quarter. Loyalty revenue had another strong quarter, up 17%. Remuneration from Chase was up 15%, and portfolio spend on our co-brand cards was up 13%.

休閒載客率小幅下降 1.3 個百分點，顯示在票價較高的情況下存在些許需求彈性；這樣的取捨我們每天都願意做。貨運營收年增 23%，增幅多數來自收益率，因為本季我們的全球長程運能成長有限。忠誠計畫營收再度繳出強勁一季，成長 17%。來自 Chase 的報酬成長 15%，我們聯名卡組合的消費金額成長 13%。

We remain on pace to generate 1 million new accounts in 2026, a material increase from 2025, thanks to changes to MileagePlus, along with strong marketing from both United and Chase. I've talked about United's efforts in the past to de-seasonalize our business by improving the relative RASM performance of Q3. We made substantial progress in Q3 of 2026 on this goal.

我們仍按計畫在 2026 年新增 100 萬個新帳戶，較 2025 年大幅增加，這得益於 MileagePlus 的調整，以及聯合航空與 Chase 雙方強勁的行銷推動。我過去曾談到聯合航空為降低季節性所做的努力，方法是改善第三季（Q3）相對的 RASM 表現。我們在 2026 年第三季於此目標上取得了實質進展。

Fuel costs may make our progress hard to see, but we believe these recent results are another milestone towards our goal of reaching double-digit pre-tax margins as we move forward into a more normalized fuel environment. My goal in absolute RASM is Q1, 2, and 4 to be similar each year with a slight reduction in Q3, given less business traffic that travels during the summer.

燃油成本可能使我們的進展不易被看見，但我們相信近期結果是朝向在燃油環境更趨正常化時，達成稅前利潤率雙位數目標的另一個里程碑。我對絕對 RASM 的目標是：每年第一季、第二季與第四季相近，而第三季略低，因為夏季出行的商務旅客較少。

We can tailor our network and capacity to achieve this goal over time. We expect RASM and yields increase sequentially from Q3 to Q4. Sell-in yields have been up in the very high teens in recent weeks, including some weeks north of 20%. However, we know we need to achieve more to capture fuel costs as we see them today.

我們可以隨時間推移調整航網與運能，以達成此目標。我們預期 RASM 與收益率將從第三季到第四季呈現季增。近幾週的售入收益率（sell-in yields）維持在十幾個百分點的高檔，其中部分週次甚至超過 20%。然而，我們知道仍需達成更多，才能吸收我們目前所見的燃油成本。

For a little more color in RASM strength in Q3, Central America, the Caribbean, Florida, Newark, and London were strong RASM tailwinds in the quarter. In fact, Florida RASMs were up 26% in the quarter alone. Hawaii, the South Pacific, and Chicago were RASM relative laggards in the quarter. Hawaii will have a better Q4 but will still underperform.

就第三季 RASM 強勢表現再補充一些細節：中美洲、加勒比海、佛羅里達、紐華克與倫敦在本季是 RASM 的強勁順風。事實上，僅佛羅里達本季的 RASM 就上升了 26%。夏威夷、南太平洋與芝加哥則是本季 RASM 相對落後的地區。夏威夷第四季會更好，但仍將表現落後。

A quick note on Chicago, starting in the second quarter of 2027, we expect minimal domestic industry capacity growth at O'Hare due to the FAA capacity constraints where the growth in total flights is capped. United is capped at 600 in daily flights, and we think that may be the likely outcome well into 2028 at this point. United's revenue share in Chicago continues to climb as we win more brand loyal customers.

關於芝加哥簡短說明一下：自 2027 年第二季起，由於 FAA 的容量限制（總航班成長被設有上限），我們預期在歐海爾機場的國內產業運能成長將非常有限。聯合航空每日航班數上限為 600 班，我們認為在目前情況下，這很可能會一路延續到 2028 年。隨著我們贏得更多品牌忠誠客戶，聯合航空在芝加哥的營收市占率持續攀升。

United hit a key milestone in Q2 of 2026, capturing 50% of Chicago-based passengers' revenue for the first time. Congratulations to the entire United team for delivering this amazing achievement. Beyond Chicago, we also saw share gains in all remaining United hub cities with the latest data released by the DOT. We believe these share gains will increase further in 2027 as Starlink becomes commonplace across all United flights.

聯合航空在 2026 年第二季達成一項關鍵里程碑，首次拿下芝加哥出發旅客營收的 50%。恭喜整個聯合航空團隊締造這項驚人的成就。除了芝加哥之外，根據 DOT 最新公布的數據，我們也在其餘所有聯合航空樞紐城市看到市占提升。我們相信，隨著 Starlink 在聯合航空所有航班上普及，這些市占增幅在 2027 年將進一步擴大。

As we think about what changes from today to the end of 2027 for United, I wanted to give you a few highlights. We'll continue the efforts to de-seasonalize our RASM production. We're excited to reestablish JFK as a destination in 2027. We'll largely complete our United Next connectivity goals in our mid-con hubs by the summer of 2027. We'll turn more of our attention towards our coastal gateways and international expansion in 2027 and beyond.

在思考從現在到 2027 年底聯合航空會有哪些變化時，我想提供幾個重點。我們將持續推動 RASM 產出去季節化的努力。我們很期待在 2027 年重新建立 JFK 作為目的地。我們將在 2027 年夏季前，大致完成在中型樞紐機場的 United Next 連通性目標。在 2027 年及之後，我們會把更多注意力轉向沿海門戶機場以及國際擴張。

We'll open amazing new terminal facilities in Houston tomorrow and in Dallas in just a few weeks. We'll also open numerous United Clubs. Our newest Club right here in Houston, Texas, opens tomorrow, which will not only be United's largest Club, but the largest in the Americas. By the end of '27, we expect to finish installing Starlink on all our jets, both mainline and express.

我們將於明天在休士頓啟用令人驚豔的新航廈設施，並在幾週後於達拉斯啟用。我們也將開設多間 United Club。我們最新的 Club 就在德州休士頓，將於明天開幕；它不僅會是聯合航空最大的 Club，也將是美洲地區最大的。到 2027 年底，我們預期完成在所有噴射機隊（含主線與支線）安裝 Starlink。

We'll finish installation of our interior signature cabins, including seat back, entertainment for all, large overhead bins, and new lighting by the end of '27. We'll also grow premium capacity faster than main cabin capacity as we introduce the A321 Coastliner and XLR at scale we believe no other airline is contemplating. We'll launch Relax Row, an Economy Plus open middle seat extending premium products to all cabins as we elevate the experience in all cabins for all passengers.

到 2027 年底，我們將完成機艙內部的標誌性艙等配置安裝，包括椅背、全客艙娛樂系統、更大的行李置物櫃，以及新照明。隨著我們以規模導入 A321 Coastliner 與 XLR（我們相信其他航空公司尚未考慮到這樣的規模），我們也將讓高端運能的成長速度快於主艙運能。我們將推出 Relax Row——Economy Plus 的中間座位開放（不安排乘客），把高端產品延伸到所有艙等，並提升所有旅客在各艙等的體驗。

We'll continue to refine our product segmentation and retailing with the introduction of tiered fares across our network and various product types. Again, we'll add more than 1 million new co-brand accounts as we enter the sunset years of our existing Chase agreement.

我們將持續精進產品分層與零售策略，在全航網與各類產品中導入分級票價。同時，隨著我們進入現有 Chase 合作協議的尾聲階段，我們將再新增超過 100 萬個聯名卡新帳戶。

And we aim to recapture 100% of the price of oil in 2027. At United, we'll continue to stay focused on our consistent strategy and path, recognizing that our relative results show our plan is working. Our goal is double-digit pre-tax margins, and we remain steadfast in our commitment to deliver them.

我們的目標是在 2027 年回收油價的 100% 成本。在聯合航空，我們將持續專注於一致的策略與路徑，並認知到相對表現顯示我們的計畫正在奏效。我們的目標是稅前利潤率達到兩位數，並將堅定致力於實現該目標。

And with that, I will pass it over to Mike. Mike?

接下來我把時間交給 Mike。Mike？

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the entire United team for the tremendous effort as we manage through a high fuel cost environment, an environment in which most of the industry will lose money. Our third-quarter results reinforce why United is on the right path and demonstrate how much progress we've made earning brand loyal customers, which are critical to delivering resilient and durable earnings.

謝謝你，Andrew，也感謝整個聯合航空團隊在高燃油成本環境下所付出的巨大努力——在這樣的環境中，產業內多數公司都將虧損。我們第三季的結果再次印證聯合航空走在正確道路上，也展現我們在贏得品牌忠誠客戶方面取得的進展有多大；而這些客戶對於帶來具韌性且可持續的獲利至關重要。

In the third quarter, we were deliberate about where we deployed capacity and continued to thoughtfully invest in the business. We remain determined to achieve double-digit pre-tax margins and an investment-grade credit rating. Our ability to pass on higher fuel costs through higher ticket prices was stronger than ever before and demonstrates how much United and the industry has transformed.

在第三季，我們有策略地決定運能投放位置，並持續審慎地投資於業務。我們仍然堅定要達成稅前利潤率兩位數，以及投資等級的信用評級。我們透過提高票價轉嫁更高燃油成本的能力比以往任何時候都更強，這也顯示聯合航空與整個產業已經發生了多大的轉變。

In the third quarter, we delivered earnings per share of $2.54 and a pre-tax margin of 6.2%. Earnings per share were within our guidance range. Fuel prices accelerated in the quarter and drove a $1.8 billion increase in expense year over year. We recaptured 72% of the increase in fuel expense as much of the increase versus our guidance occurred in the period, and most of our revenue was already on the books. We're highly confident in our ability to recapture 100% of increases in our fuel cost, but with a lag.

第三季我們的每股盈餘為 2.54 美元，稅前利潤率為 6.2%。每股盈餘落在我們的指引區間內。本季燃油價格加速上升，帶動費用年增 18 億美元。由於相較我們指引的增幅多發生在期間內，而我們大部分營收已提前入帳，我們回收了燃油費用增加的 72%。我們對於最終能回收燃油成本增加的 100% 非常有信心，但會有時間落後。

Our CASM-ex was up 7.8%, and that higher rate now captures the full run rate of expense from our flight attendant deal. We also incurred the impact of closing capacity reductions. We expect Q3 to be the high-water mark for CASM-ex, and expense growth will step down in the fourth quarter and then step materially lower in 2027.

我們的 CASM-ex 上升 7.8%，而這個較高的水準如今已反映我們空服員協議所帶來的完整費用年化水準。我們也承擔了關閉運能縮減所帶來的影響。我們預期第三季將是 CASM-ex 的高點，費用成長將在第四季放緩，並在 2027 年進一步明顯下降。

Outside of the impact from closing capacity reductions, our CASM-ex trajectory has remained consistent with our expectations at the start of the year. I want to thank our team for their diligent work to keep us on track in such an inflationary environment. Looking ahead, we expect fourth quarter earnings per share to be between $0.50 and $1.50, assuming an all-in fuel price per gallon of approximately $4.80, based on last Friday's forward curve.

撇除關閉運能縮減的影響，我們的 CASM-ex 走勢仍與年初的預期一致。我要感謝團隊在如此通膨的環境下仍勤勉工作，讓我們維持在既定軌道上。展望未來，在假設每加侖全包燃油價格約為 4.80 美元（依上週五的遠期曲線）下，我們預期第四季每股盈餘介於 0.50 至 1.50 美元。

Underlying this guidance is a CASM-ex that will decelerate and a TRASM that's accelerating compared to the third quarter. This is a good setup as we exit the year. We're forecasting that our fuel recapture in the fourth quarter will be similar to the third quarter, given the continued increase in fuel prices. This is lower than the 100% we were anticipating due to the rapid spike in jet fuel prices late in the third quarter.

支撐此指引的假設是：CASM-ex 將減速，而 TRASM 相較第三季正在加速。這讓我們在年底收官時具備良好態勢。鑑於燃油價格持續上升，我們預估第四季的燃油回收率將與第三季相近。由於第三季末航油價格快速飆升，這一水準低於我們原先預期的 100%。

Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $17.7 billion of liquidity, including our undrawn revolver, and paid down approximately $1 billion of debt. We raised $900 million of new debt that was priced at a fixed rate equivalent in the low 5% range. Additionally, we upsized our revolving credit facility last week from $3 billion of unfunded liquidity to $5 billion, and we extended the maturity two more years to 2031. We intend to reduce gross debt by the same amount as we target $18 billion in liquidity at year end.

談到資產負債表，我們在本季末的流動性為 177 億美元（包含未動用的循環信貸額度），並償還約 10 億美元債務。我們新增發行 9 億美元債務，定價為固定利率，等效利率約落在 5% 出頭。此外，我們上週將循環信用額度從 30 億美元的未動用流動性提高至 50 億美元，並將到期日再延長兩年至 2031 年。在以年底流動性 180 億美元為目標的同時，我們打算以相同金額降低總債務。

We expect this shift to unfunded liquidity to save approximately $70 million of annual interest and fees. This is currently the largest airline revolving credit facility in history, and yet another proof point of the strength of our business and our balance sheet. Rising oil prices have impacted our near-term metrics, with our net leverage at 2.4 times. However, we remain determined to achieve investment grade metrics and hopefully also ratings next year.

我們預期這項轉向未動用流動性的調整，每年可節省約 7,000 萬美元的利息與費用。這是史上規模最大的航空公司循環信用額度，也是我們業務與資產負債表實力的又一項有力佐證。油價上升影響了我們的短期指標，使我們的淨槓桿倍數為 2.4 倍。然而，我們仍然堅定要達成投資等級的財務指標，並希望明年也能取得相應評級。

We continue to target net leverage of less than 2 times. Our financial performance continues to demonstrate the strength of United's business model and our ability to execute through industry shock events. We can't control oil prices or geopolitics, but we can control how we run our airline. And in an environment like this, the gap between airlines that have invested for the long term and those that haven't has become even more apparent.

我們仍以淨槓桿低於 2 倍為目標。我們的財務表現持續展現聯合航空商業模式的強韌，以及我們在產業衝擊事件中仍能執行到位的能力。我們無法控制油價或地緣政治，但我們可以控制如何經營我們的航空公司。在這樣的環境下，長期投資與未做長期投資的航空公司之間的差距變得更加明顯。

While our relative margin has been industry-leading, we remain focused on achieving absolute double-digit pre-tax margins as our top financial goal. We'll continue making investments that further our competitive advantage, and that will lead to those double-digit pre-tax margins. I'll now turn it to Kristina to kick off the Q&A.

雖然我們的相對利潤率一直領先業界，但我們仍專注於達成稅前絕對雙位數利潤率，作為我們最重要的財務目標。我們將持續進行投資，以進一步強化我們的競爭優勢，而這也將帶來稅前雙位數利潤率。接下來我把時間交給 Kristina 來開始問答。

Thank you, Mike. We'll now take questions from the analyst community. Please limit yourself to one question, and if needed, one related follow-up question. Regina, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

謝謝你，Mike。現在我們將開始接受分析師社群的提問。請各位將問題限制為一個，如有需要可再加問一個相關的追問。Regina，請說明提問流程。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

(接線生指示) Mike Linenberg，德意志銀行。

Oh, yeah. Hey, good morning, everyone. I'm staring at $5 jet fuel, and hard to believe that you're still on track to do $3 billion of pre-tax profit or more this year. United has clearly cracked the code here. A question directly to Mike. Look, as best as I can tell, among publicly traded airlines, I think you had the highest liquidity position of anyone, and yet you upsized it by another $2 billion.

喔，是的。各位早安。我看到噴射燃油每加侖 5 美元，實在很難相信你們今年仍可望達成 30 億美元或以上的稅前獲利。聯合航空顯然已經破解了這套方程式。我有個問題直接問 Mike。就我所知，在上市航空公司之中，我想你們的流動性部位是最高的，但你們卻又把它再增加了 20 億美元。

If my math serves me right, I presume your liquidity is right around $20 billion, unless you've paid down debt recently since quarter end. Why the step up? Is it because you already had a lot? Is it just being poised for opportunity? We know that things break at $5 jet fuel. Talk about the philosophy behind having so much cash. Thanks for taking my question.

如果我算得沒錯，我推測你們的流動性大約在 200 億美元左右，除非你們在季末之後已經償還了一些債務。為什麼要再往上加碼？是因為你們本來就已經很多了嗎？還是只是為了把握機會、隨時待命？我們知道在噴射燃油 5 美元時很多事情會出問題。請談談持有這麼多現金背後的理念。謝謝讓我提問。

Yeah, thanks, Mike. It's a great question, and it does create optionality, but we're cost-conscious. If you think about when we've raised our debt and where we're investing the liquidity, the cost to carry is relatively low right now, number one. Number two, the upsizing the revolver is going to allow us to carry that liquidity in a more efficient way. I said in my prepared remarks, but let me repeat. We intend to bring that liquidity to $18 billion at year end. $20 billion is too much.

是的，謝謝你，Mike。這是個很好的問題，確實能帶來選擇權，但我們也很重視成本。如果你回頭看我們舉債的時點，以及我們把流動性投資到哪裡，目前的持有成本相對較低，這是第一點。第二點，擴大循環信貸額度將讓我們以更有效率的方式持有這些流動性。我在事先準備的發言中提過，但我再重申一次。我們打算在年底把流動性降到 180 億美元。200 億美元太多了。

We'll bring that down. That's going to save us over $70 million in interest and fees. As we earn an investment-grade credit metric, we'll reevaluate the level of liquidity. We're comfortable with this. We're an industry that asteroids hit. We're well prepared for lots of events, and it's a relatively low cost of insurance to carry the extra liquidity.

我們會把它降下來。這將為我們節省超過 7,000 萬美元的利息與費用。當我們達到投資級的信用指標時，我們會重新評估流動性的水位。我們對此感到安心。我們所處的產業會被小行星撞上。我們對各種事件都做了充分準備，而持有額外流動性作為保險的成本相對不高。

Mike, I will just quickly add, if people think we did that for optionality to do M&A activity, that's absolutely 100% not the rationale. It's save $70 million to get to the same liquidity targets we had anyway. It's simple.

Mike，我再快速補充一下，如果有人認為我們這麼做是為了保留選擇權去做併購活動，那完全、百分之百不是原因。這只是為了節省 7,000 萬美元，同時達到我們原本就設定的流動性目標。就這麼簡單。

Great. Thanks, everyone.

很好。謝謝各位。

Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

Tom Fitzgerald，TD Cowen。

Hi, everyone. Thanks very much for the time. Just curious for Andrew, you mentioned a lot of momentum on the loyalty side of the business, and it's been kind of running the low double-digit rate the last couple of years, but a million new co-brand accounts annualizing next year, and then some of the other benefits with Starlink.

各位好。非常感謝撥冗。我想請教 Andrew，你提到忠誠度業務這邊動能很強，過去幾年大致維持在低雙位數成長，但明年年化將新增 100 萬個聯名卡帳戶，另外還有 Starlink 帶來的一些其他效益。

You've made a lot of leadership changes on loyalty. Curious about connectivity as well. I guess, long-winded way of saying, could we see that other revenue line item accelerate, maybe into the low teens potentially next year?

你們在忠誠度部門也做了很多領導層調整。我也想了解連線服務方面。換句話說，其他營收這個科目是否可能加速成長，明年或許提升到低十幾%的增速？

I think we hope so. As you pointed out, the milestone of a million new accounts, as those accounts mature and spend more next year and the year after, that's how that calculation works, as I think we're all aware of. We'll do a million accounts this year. We'll get those accounts spending. We'll get them upgraded to higher credit cards, the club card in particular, and then we'll do another million accounts next year.

我想我們希望如此。如你所說，新增 100 萬個帳戶這個里程碑，當這些帳戶在明年與後年逐步成熟、消費增加時，計算方式就是這樣，我想大家都很清楚。我們今年會做到 100 萬個帳戶。我們會讓這些帳戶開始消費。我們會讓他們升級到更高階的信用卡，尤其是貴賓室卡，然後明年再做另一個 100 萬個帳戶。

And that's a big investment in making that number in terms of total loyalty revenue increase, hopefully in the mid-teens, at least 14% or 15% consistently for the next few years, or maybe even higher.

而這是一項很大的投資，目標是讓忠誠度總營收的增幅，希望在未來幾年能穩定維持在十幾%中段，至少每年 14% 或 15%，甚至可能更高。

Thanks. That's really helpful. And then if I could squeeze in a quick follow-up just on the tiered fare categories. Just curious early learnings with that and maybe how you could think about that tailwind into next year, specifically around buy-up to basic business. Thanks again for the time.

謝謝。這非常有幫助。另外如果我可以再追問一個關於分級票價類別的問題。想了解目前初期的學習與觀察，以及你們如何看待這項利多延伸到明年，特別是從較低票價加價升等到 basic business 的情況。再次感謝撥冗。

Yeah. I will say that we're really pleased by the launch of the tiered fare products, and we continue to expand them and are doing a bit more in the next few weeks. I think it's been great for our customers. It provides more options for them and great for the airline as well. We redesigned united.com specifically to sell them effectively, and we'll continue to refine our approach on that I think has even more upside.

是的。我會說我們對分級票價產品的推出非常滿意，而且我們持續擴大推行，接下來幾週還會再做更多。我認為這對我們的客戶很棒。它為他們提供更多選擇，對航空公司也同樣有利。我們特別重新設計了 united.com，以便更有效地銷售這些產品；我們也會持續精進做法，我認為還有更大的上行空間。

The buy-up rates are incredibly high. Consumers know what they're buying, and we disclose it very carefully. This has worked for years. It started with basic economy a little more than 10 years ago. We've learned a lot of lessons on how to do this, and I just think it's been really monumental for us, more so than people realize, and we're glad to pave the way on this.

加價升等的比率高得驚人。消費者知道自己買的是什麼，我們也非常謹慎地揭露相關資訊。這套做法多年來一直有效。它從十多年前的基本經濟艙開始。我們在如何執行這件事上學到了很多，我認為這對我們而言非常具里程碑意義，程度超過外界所理解的，我們也很高興能在這方面帶頭。

It was a very good idea, and we look forward to refining it. And if you recall, the early days of basic economy took a lot of refinements, and I think we're just at the early days of this phenomena in the other cabins as well.

這是一個非常好的點子，我們也期待持續優化。而且如果你還記得，基本經濟艙在早期也經過很多次調整；我認為在其他艙等上，這個現象也才剛開始。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu，Jefferies。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the fleet, maybe just based on deliveries slipping out of 2026 and your view for higher for longer fuel and accelerating capacity. How are you thinking about 2027 deliveries and retirements? Maybe as a follow up to that, your specific plans on MAX deliveries across the MAX 9 and MAX 10 models in 2027.

謝謝，各位早安。我想問一下機隊方面，可能基於交付延後到 2026 年之後，以及你們對燃油「高位維持更久」與運能加速的看法。你們如何思考 2027 年的交付與退役？另外作為追問，請談談你們在 2027 年針對 MAX 9 與 MAX 10 機型的 MAX 交付之具體規劃。

Hi, Sheila. Look, we're really excited and want to congratulate Boeing for the certification of the MAX 10. The MAX 10 is a big part of our up-gauging strategy. It's going to be a very competitive aircraft for our network. So very excited about taking delivery of that. As we look into 2027, I think we're going to take about two wide-body aircraft a month, and we'll take over 100 narrow-body aircraft.

嗨，Sheila。我們非常興奮，也想恭喜波音完成 MAX 10 的認證。MAX 10 是我們提升機型座位數策略的重要一環。它將會是非常具競爭力、適合我們航網的機型。所以我們非常期待接收交付。展望 2027 年，我想我們每月大約會接收兩架廣體機，並且會接收超過 100 架窄體機。

So we've some pent-up demand in our fleet, with older aircraft that are maintenance inefficient, fuel inefficient, and so regardless of the amount of capacity we end up flying, there is an opportunity for us to modernize the fleet and to up-gauge the fleet that has really strong economics. So we're excited to accelerate that rate of delivery on both narrow and wide.

因此，我們的機隊存在一些被壓抑的需求，因為有較老舊的飛機在維修效率與燃油效率上都不佳；所以不論我們最終飛多少運能，我們都有機會讓機隊現代化，並把機隊升級到更大機型，而其經濟效益非常強。因此，我們很期待加速窄體與寬體機的交付速度。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

Conor Cunningham，Melius Research。

Hi, everyone. Maybe I'll push back a little bit on that opening statement from you, Scott. The bare thesis that's out there is that you already had low fuel. You had structural change in the industry that brought industry supply super low for a long period of time. Now, obviously fuel has spiked. Industry supply is ramping into that. You're still seeing competitors discount close in.

各位好。Scott，或許我想對你剛才的開場陳述稍微提出一點不同看法。外界最基本的論點是，你們原本就處在低油價環境。產業也出現結構性變化，使得產業供給在很長一段時間內都非常低。現在，顯然燃油價格已經飆升。產業供給也正在在這樣的環境下回升。你們仍然看到競爭對手在臨近出發時段打折。

I'm trying to feel comfortable about the long-term double-digit pre-tax margin. It just feels like tweaks in supply don't get you there anymore. If you could just paint the picture a little bit better, I think that would be helpful. Thanks.

我想要對長期兩位數稅前利潤率感到更踏實。但現在感覺光靠供給端的小幅調整，已經無法達到那個水準。如果你能把整體圖像描繪得更清楚一些，我想會很有幫助。謝謝。

I'll do my best. I'll disaggregate it into unique United and industry. Unique United, we've been winning share kind of everywhere we fly at all of our hubs for a while now. I have pretty good anecdotes already. It's mostly anecdotal now, but that Starlink is causing customers to move.

我會盡力。我會把它拆成「聯合航空自身的獨特因素」與「產業因素」兩部分來談。就聯合航空自身而言，我們在所有樞紐、幾乎所有航點都已經持續一段時間在搶占市占。我現在就已經有一些相當不錯的例子。目前多半還是軼事性的，但 Starlink 正在促使客戶轉移。

What I hear from those people as they get on, the number one thing I hear is they pick a United flight, they live somewhere else or a frequent flyer somewhere else. They pick a United flight and they say, oh, my God, the app is amazing. Why doesn't any other airline have that? Then the people are nice, and they wind up switching.

我從那些上機後的人聽到的，第一名的回饋是：他們選了聯合航空的航班，雖然他們住在別的地方或原本是其他航空的常旅客。他們選了聯合航空的航班，然後說：天啊，這個 App 太棒了。為什麼其他航空公司都沒有？接著他們覺得員工也很友善，最後就轉而改搭我們。

I don't think that's going to happen fast enough personally in 2027 to get us to double digits without some other structural macro changes, as I said in my opening comments, but it's a big tailwind. That's sort of unique to United. On the structural level, boy, I happen to think that jet fuel prices are going to be high all the way through next year.

但我個人不認為，光靠這件事在 2027 年發生得夠快，就能在沒有其他宏觀結構性變化的情況下把我們推到兩位數（稅前利潤率），正如我在開場所說；不過這確實是一股很大的順風。這算是聯合航空相對獨特的因素。在結構層面，我倒是認為航煤價格會一路維持高檔直到明年。

There've been an awful lot of airlines, say, managing their business as if it weren't for fuel. Which in the short term is a way to absolve yourself of responsibility and accountability. I just don't think that's going to last. Really what I think is going to, I don't know the timing. I think this is more a question of when than if.

有非常多航空公司一直在用一種「好像燃油不存在」的方式來經營。短期來看，這是一種讓自己免於承擔責任與問責的方法。但我不認為這能持續。我真正認為會發生的是——我不知道時間點。我覺得這比較是「何時」的問題，而不是「是否」的問題。

But if oil prices stay high, like I think they will through next year, I find it low probability that every airline runs out what their current capacity plans are for the full year. I know they are all going to get on calls and say it, but once they get an activist investor coming in or something else like that happens, it changes your mind in a hurry.

但如果油價維持高檔——就像我認為它會一路到明年——我認為所有航空公司都能把目前的運能計畫完整跑完一整年的機率很低。我知道他們都會在電話會議上這麼說，但一旦有行動派投資人介入，或發生其他類似事件，你的想法很快就會改變。

The losses will be. So 6 to 10 US airlines are going to lose money this year. If oil is higher next year, the stress is building. I think there are going to be supply changes. Actually being successful as an airline is really simple. One golden rule, don't fly places that lose money. While that's simple, very few people follow it, but there is going to be less loss-making flying.

虧損會出現。所以今年美國會有 6 到 10 家航空公司虧錢。如果明年油價更高，壓力就會累積。我認為供給端會出現變化。其實要把航空公司經營成功非常簡單。一條黃金法則：不要飛會虧錢的航線。雖然很簡單，但真正遵守的人很少；不過未來虧損航班會變少。

I think, by the end of next year, I do not know when it's going to happen, but I think at some point next year, these calls are going to be transitioned to 2028 is going to be a really good year because more structural change has happened in the industry. Structural change has happened this year. The fact that Spirit went away was a reprieve from some airlines from making hard decisions. It gave them a reprieve.

我認為到明年年底，我不知道會在什麼時候發生，但我覺得明年的某個時間點，這些電話會議的論調會轉變成：2028 年會是非常好的一年，因為產業發生了更多結構性變化。今年其實已經發生結構性變化。Spirit 的退出，讓一些航空公司暫時不用做艱難決策。這給了他們一段喘息期。

But there are other airlines that are next up on the firing line, and I think changes are coming.

但還有其他航空公司接下來會站上火線，我認為變化正在到來。

Okay. Thank you. Maybe kicking over to Mike. It's been difficult to model costs, and I know it's not just a United thing, it's more of an industry problem, or an industry headwind. I know you are talking about decelerating growth into next year, but if you could just give any color around 2027 and how you view cost. I think just people are trying to get comfortable with that side of the equation as we determine where fares go in general. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。或許把問題轉給 Mike。成本一直很難建模，我知道這不只是聯合航空的問題，更是整個產業的問題、或說產業逆風。我知道你們在談明年成長放緩，但如果你能就 2027 年以及你們如何看待成本提供一些補充說明。我想大家在判斷整體票價走勢時，正試著對成本這一端的方程式更有把握。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Scott, and I think it's a reasonable question to ask. This team has done an incredible job of managing the inflationary pressures we faced in 2026. I will repeat what I said in my script. Were it not for the voluntary reductions in capacity, our 2026 CASM-ex is tracking exactly where we expected it to at the beginning of the year. So, given the inflationary pressures, given what we've seen from peers, I think that's an incredible result.

是的。謝謝，Scott，我覺得這是個合理的問題。這個團隊在管理我們於 2026 年面臨的通膨壓力方面做得非常出色。我會重申我在講稿裡說過的話。如果不是因為我們自願下調運能，我們 2026 年的 CASM-ex 走勢正好與年初預期完全一致。所以，在通膨壓力之下、再看看同業的情況，我認為這是非常了不起的成果。

As we look to 2027, we're going to continue to target 2% to 3% CASM-ex. We're definitely facing inflationary pressures. One of the biggest inflationary pressures we're facing is from increasing distribution costs, because as fares go up, the distribution cost is a percentage of fares. We're facing airport costs that since the pandemic have gone up by 60%.

展望 2027 年，我們會持續以 2% 到 3% 的 CASM-ex 為目標。我們確實面臨通膨壓力。其中最大的通膨壓力之一來自分銷成本上升，因為票價上升時，分銷成本是按票價的一定比例計算。我們也面臨機場成本，自疫情以來已上升了 60%。

There's lots of work to do to run a more efficient airline to offset those inflationary pressures. At United, we're going to have a unique tailwind in increasing gauge growth in 2027. We're going to work hard to live within that 2% to 3% CASM-ex in 2027 and beyond. But we do have our work cut out for us.

我們還有很多工作要做，必須把航空公司營運得更有效率，才能抵消這些通膨壓力。對聯合航空而言，2027 年我們會有一個獨特的順風：透過機型放大（gauge up）帶來的成長。我們會努力在 2027 年及之後把 CASM-ex 控制在 2% 到 3% 的區間內。但我們確實任重道遠。

The last thing I will say is, in environments like this where fuel prices spike, we're going to have no hesitation to cut capacity of flights that are losing money because we're not managing the CASM-ex, we're managing the margin. We're doing a great job relative CASM-ex. We're not changing the goals. The goals are going to remain aggressive, but make no mistake, we're managing the margin, not CASM-ex.

最後我想說的是，在像這樣燃油價格飆升的環境下，對於虧錢的航班，我們會毫不猶豫地削減運能，因為我們管理的不是 CASM-ex，而是利潤率。就 CASM-ex 而言，我們相對表現非常好。我們不會改變目標。目標仍會維持進取，但請不要誤會，我們管理的是利潤率，不是 CASM-ex。

Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

Andrew Didora，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess my first one for Andrew or Scott, I guess you talk about this higher for longer fuel environment in 2027. I guess, where do you think industry capacity should shake out next year, and how does United's growth fit into that overall industry backdrop?

各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。我第一個問題想問 Andrew 或 Scott：你們談到 2027 年燃油「高檔維持更久」的環境。那你們認為明年產業運能應該會如何調整到什麼水準？聯合航空的成長又會如何融入整體產業背景？

I think Scott gave the macro answer to that question largely, so I don't think I want to repeat it. For United, we're very conscious of our capacity. I think about it every day, and look at every flight and every market. And we're nimble, and we'll make the right decision, and we'll make the right decision for 2027 as well as we usually do. I think we've a very good track record on this.

我想 Scott 基本上已經從宏觀層面回答了那個問題，所以我不想重複。就聯合航空而言，我們對運能非常謹慎。我每天都在想這件事，並檢視每一個航班與每一個市場。而且我們很靈活，會做出正確的決策，也會像以往一樣，為 2027 年做出正確的決策。我認為我們在這方面有非常好的紀錄。

Okay, thanks. I guess a second one, just quickly for Mike. Obviously, there was a loyalty transaction out in the market a couple of months ago with Air Canada that I think shed a little bit more light on the value of that business. I know you don't need to do that type of deal, but I think in the past, you've sometimes floated the idea of providing a little bit more disclosure just to give investors a little bit more color on that business. Have you any new thoughts post that transaction? Thank you.

好的，謝謝。我想再問第二個問題，快速問一下 Mike。顯然，幾個月前市場上加拿大航空做了一筆忠誠度交易，我認為那讓大家更清楚看到那項業務的價值。我知道你們不需要做那種交易，但我記得過去你們有時提過，可能會提供更多揭露，讓投資人對那項業務有更多了解。在那筆交易之後，你們有沒有新的想法？謝謝。

Thanks, Andrew. I love the question. Look, we're the first airline to use our loyalty program as collateral in the pandemic. I want to compliment the Air Canada team on an incredible transaction. I think it highlights the value of these loyalty programs, the tremendous value that frankly, we're not seeing in our share prices. That said, here at United, as Andrew has shared, we're getting close to the sunset of our existing contract with our partner, number one.

謝謝你，Andrew。我很喜歡這個問題。你看，我們是在疫情期間第一家把忠誠度計畫拿來作為擔保品的航空公司。我想稱讚加拿大航空團隊完成了一筆非常出色的交易。我認為這凸顯了這些忠誠度計畫的價值——坦白說，是非常巨大的價值，而這些價值在我們的股價中並沒有反映出來。不過話說回來，在聯合航空這邊，如 Andrew 所分享的，我們現有與合作夥伴的合約正接近到期（sunset），這是第一點。

Number two, given that it makes sense, given that it's about to sunset and given that it's a historic contract that it doesn't have modern economics, it makes much more sense for us to wait and get the new contract, and then provide the additional disclosure. For now, holding pattern, but Air Canada did an amazing job of highlighting the value that exists in these programs, and particularly here at United.

第二點，考量到合約即將到期，而且這是一份歷史合約、其經濟條款並不符合現代的商業模式，我們更合理的做法是等到新合約到位之後，再提供額外的揭露。目前先維持觀望，但加拿大航空確實做得非常好，凸顯了這些計畫中存在的價值，尤其是在聯合航空這裡。

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

Jamie Baker，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning, everybody. Scott, since you brought up the C word, you've been vocal

嗨，各位早安。Scott，既然你提到了那個以 C 開頭的字，你一直很直言不諱……

What's the C word?

哪個以 C 開頭的字？

Consolidation. What do you think?

整併（Consolidation）。你怎麼看？

Oh.

喔。

You've been vocal about not engaging in M&A. You've spoken about JetBlue specifically, given the, among other things, 10% to 15% margin gap between yourselves and them, and a preference to quote-unquote, go big. I believe that was your term when it comes to consolidation.

你一直很明確表示不會參與併購（M&A）。你也特別談過 JetBlue，原因之一是你們與他們之間大約有 10% 到 15% 的利潤率差距，並且偏好用你所說的「做大」（go big）來談整併。我相信那是你用來描述整併時的用語。

There's been no movement at American forward in terms of regime change, but we've seen JetBlue's market cap get decimated here. We've got $2 billion of loyalty bonds trading at, whatever, half of par. Obviously, it's a touchy subject, but why shouldn't United be a potential solution for JetBlue as they ponder a restructuring?

美國航空那邊在體制更替方面沒有任何進展，但我們看到 JetBlue 的市值在這裡被大幅打擊。我們也看到 20 億美元的忠誠度債券交易價格大概在票面的一半左右。顯然這是個敏感話題，但當 JetBlue 在思考重整時，為什麼聯合航空不應該成為他們的潛在解方？

Well, I have done enough talking this year, I think, about the C word, as you say. I have done enough talking to be newsworthy in the last 48 hours. Actually, I did an interview six or seven weeks ago to be newsworthy. I am not going to create any new. I have nothing new to add on that. We're focused on, you can hear from our call, you can hear from our tone. We feel great about what we're doing here at United. I wish oil prices were lower in the short term.

嗯，我想今年我已經就你說的那個以 C 開頭的字講得夠多了。我在過去 48 小時內也已經講到足以成為新聞。其實我在六、七週前做的一次訪談就已經足以成為新聞了。我不會再製造任何新的……我對此沒有新的補充。我們專注在——你從我們的電話會議內容、從我們的語氣都聽得出來。我們對聯合航空正在做的事情感到非常好。我只希望短期內油價能更低一些。

I am really proud of the team. The fact that we're able to be doing this well in this environment. I think it's a matter of when, not if, we get to double-digit margins on a standalone basis. I think, by the way, Starlink, schedule is number one, it's the clear number two in choice when people are choosing an airline, to me. It's a significant advantage we're going to have for the next couple of years.

我真的為團隊感到非常自豪。在這樣的環境下，我們仍能有這樣的表現。我認為我們以獨立經營的基礎達到雙位數利潤率只是時間問題，而不是會不會的問題。另外我認為，順帶一提，Starlink、航班時刻表是第一要素；在旅客選擇航空公司時，它很明顯是第二重要的選擇因素，至少對我而言。這會是我們在未來幾年擁有的一項重大優勢。

We're really focused on, my message to the team is, we're going to have new customers trying us from other airlines, and our mission, I am going to do it with a bunch of employees here in an hour, is make sure they know that United is the best airline in the country for them to fly and get them to be long-term customers.

我們非常專注——我對團隊的訊息是：會有來自其他航空公司的新客戶來嘗試我們，而我們的任務——我一小時後會和一群員工一起做——就是確保他們知道，對他們而言，聯合航空是全國最好的航空公司，並讓他們成為長期客戶。

I'd say, by the way, for those on the call that are listening, that fly other airlines, at some point in the next 12 months, when you find yourself on the second or third United flight because of Starlink, and you find yourself taking the application from the flight attendant for the credit card, and you realize that you've switched airlines, you'll get a twofer. You'll have upgraded your airline and your stock investment idea.

順帶一提，我想對正在收聽電話會議、平常搭其他航空公司的各位說：在接下來 12 個月的某個時點，當你因為 Starlink 而發現自己搭了第二次或第三次聯合航空的航班，並且你從空服員那裡拿了信用卡申請表，然後你意識到你已經換了航空公司時，你會得到「一舉兩得」。你不只升級了你搭乘的航空公司，也升級了你的股票投資想法。

Okay, fair enough. Andrew, just quickly, can you expand on your earlier Chicago comment? I know you do not want to give specifics in terms of hub profitability, but on a fuel-neutral basis, can you help us think about the shape of how margins have evolved there and what you expect to occur after the April date that you identified a few minutes ago? Not talking absolute, I am just looking at how the change ex- fuel, if you'll, in Chicago profitability has looked.

好的，合理。Andrew，快速問一下，你能否延伸說明你先前對芝加哥的評論？我知道你不想就樞紐獲利能力提供具體數字，但在不受燃油影響（fuel-neutral）的基礎上，你能否幫我們理解那裡的利潤率走勢如何演變，以及在你幾分鐘前提到的 4 月那個時間點之後，你預期會發生什麼？我不是在談絕對值，我只是想看一下芝加哥獲利能力在扣除燃油後的變化大概長什麼樣子。

Sure. Well, look, I'll start off with, in looking backwards at our RASM results in Q3, I don't think you saw any speed bumps, right. Looking forward to our outlook for Q4, I think our numbers also show there are no speed bumps. That being said, there is a bit more capacity in Chicago than normal year over year. That headwind, I think, turns into a tailwind as of April, given the way the FAA is managing capacity at the airport.

當然。嗯，你看，我先從回顧我們第三季的 RASM 表現說起，我不認為你看到任何顛簸，對吧。往前看我們第四季的展望，我認為我們的數字也顯示沒有任何顛簸。話雖如此，芝加哥的運能相較往年同期確實多了一些。我認為，隨著 FAA 對機場運能的管理方式，這個逆風在 4 月起會轉為順風。

Overall, I'm not going to put a lot of fuel on this fire, but I'd tell you that the RASM Premium we've to brand X is about 14 points, and our CASM premium is better by 3 points to 4 points. So I'll leave you to do all the economics and math that results in, but that's the latest data that we see. We watch it daily. But overall, I think that the macro point is, it's a minor thing in our Q3, Q4 numbers. As we enter the bulk of next year, I think Chicago becomes a tailwind as of April and beyond.

整體而言，我不打算在這件事上火上加油，但我可以告訴你，我們相對於 X 品牌的 RASM 溢價大約是 14 個百分點，而我們的 CASM 溢價則好 3 到 4 個百分點。所以其餘的經濟含義與數學計算就留給你們了，但這是我們看到的最新數據。我們每天都在觀察。不過整體來說，我認為宏觀重點是：這在我們第三季、第四季的數字裡只是個小因素。當我們進入明年大部分時間後，我認為芝加哥從 4 月起及之後會成為順風。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thanks everyone. In the prepared remarks, you spoke about de-seasonalization efforts in 3Q bearing fruit, and potentially that extending to other quarters as well. Can you just remind us what that means for how we think about the 4Q to 1Q walk on maybe key KPIs, probably leading with capacity?

很好。謝謝各位。在事先準備的發言中，你們提到第三季的去季節化（de-seasonalization）努力已經開始見效，而且可能也會延伸到其他季度。你能否提醒我們，這對於我們理解第四季到第一季之間的變動（walk），在一些關鍵 KPI 上意味著什麼——可能先從運能談起？

Yeah. First of all, going back to Q3, I have been disappointed over a period of years that Q3's relative financial results have been disappointing versus Q2, which has gotten incredibly strong. June, in particular, is an amazing month now, much more than it had been in the past. August is the opposite of that, I think, as kids go back to school earlier.

是的。首先，回到第三季（Q3），多年來我一直感到失望的是，Q3 相對於 Q2 的財務表現一直令人失望，而 Q2 已經變得非常強勁。尤其是 6 月，現在是一個非常驚人的月份，比過去強得多。我認為 8 月則相反，因為孩子們更早返校。

We've been working really hard to make sure that we can get to a path where our Q3 earnings are at par with the other quarters. For Q4 and Q1, we had a lot of work on Q1 coming out of the pandemic, particularly as business traffic evolved, and I think that has come a long, long way, particularly with our Atlantic RASMs and relative profitability.

我們一直非常努力，確保能走上一條路徑，讓我們 Q3 的獲利與其他季度持平。至於 Q4 和 Q1，我們在疫情後的 Q1 做了很多工作，特別是隨著商務客流型態演變；我認為這已經有了長足進展，尤其是在我們大西洋航線的 RASM 與相對獲利能力方面。

But as I said earlier in the opening, we would like for the RASM performance in all the quarters to be the same, other than Q3, where given there is just less premium business traffic in Q3, we think that should be a little bit lower. Again, that number was masked by fuel, I think, in Q3 of this year. But that's our goal, and de-seasonalizing the business creates a lot more ability to fly and even schedule almost year-round, which creates other cost efficiencies, which we think is the right way to go.

但如我先前在開場時所說，我們希望所有季度的 RASM 表現都一樣，除了 Q3；因為 Q3 的高端商務客流確實較少，我們認為它應該略低一些。再說一次，我認為今年 Q3 的數字被燃油因素掩蓋了。但這是我們的目標；而去季節化（de-seasonalizing）能讓我們更有能力飛行，甚至幾乎全年排班，進而帶來其他成本效率，我們認為這是正確的方向。

That's what we're evolving to as quickly as we can.

這就是我們正盡快演進到的方向。

Very good. Thank you.

很好。謝謝。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊（Barclays）。

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking the question. Scott or Andrew, I think you both mentioned potentially trading load factor for yields or maybe dialing that in in revenue management systems. Is that something that United is maybe considering even more looking into 2027?

嗨，早安，謝謝讓我提問。Scott 或 Andrew，我想你們兩位都提到，可能會用載客率去換取收益率，或是在收益管理系統裡做一些調整。這是不是聯合航空（United）在展望到 2027 年時，可能會更進一步考慮的事情？

Look, I think it's obvious where the price of fuel is. It's obvious where our total CASM is. It's also, therefore, mathematically obvious what yields need to do. Do I expect there to be some impacts on load factor? There was a tiny bit in Q3. There will probably be a little bit more in Q4.

你看，我覺得燃油價格在哪裡很明顯。我們的總 CASM 在哪裡也很明顯。因此，從數學上也很明顯收益率需要到什麼程度。我預期載客率會受到一些影響嗎？Q3 已經有一點點了。Q4 可能會再多一點。

But we know where yields need to be for United. We're taking all the appropriate actions to get them there so we can recover 100% of fuel. I do expect that that means slightly lower load factors. I will just reiterate, we do not manage to a fixed load factor target. That's not how it works. It's not how it should work.

但我們知道聯合航空的收益率需要到什麼水準。我們正在採取所有適當的行動把它拉到那裡，讓我們能把燃油成本 100% 回收。我確實預期這代表載客率會略低一些。我再重申一次，我們不是以固定的載客率目標來管理。事情不是這樣運作的。也不應該這樣運作。

We manage to maximize our RASM and our long-term margin goal, and if load factors fall, they are incredibly high, by the way, relative to all of the past in my experience in this business. That's perfectly okay.

我們管理的目標是最大化 RASM 與我們的長期利潤率目標；如果載客率下滑——順帶一提，以我在這個產業的經驗來看，現在的載客率相較過去任何時候都高得驚人——那也完全沒問題。

Appreciate that, Andrew. I guess, what people are a little bit worried about here is obviously if you look at fourth quarter domestic capacity, both United and your large competitor, American, are up about 8% to 9% domestically, and obviously into a higher jet fuel environment. Can you just talk to us about the classic prisoner's dilemma between this?

了解，謝謝你，Andrew。我想大家有點擔心的是，顯然如果你看第四季的美國國內運能，聯合航空和你們的大型競爭對手美航（American）在國內都增加了大約 8% 到 9%，而且是在航油價格更高的環境下。你能不能跟我們談談這之間典型的「囚徒困境」？

I think, Andrew, you highlighted the relative performance in Chicago, but I guess, how does this ultimately resolve, and can this be a more sustainable long-term outlook competitively?

我想 Andrew，你強調了芝加哥的相對表現，但我想問的是，這最終會如何收斂解決？而從競爭角度來看，這能否成為更可持續的長期展望？

Well, I am not going to talk about the other guy in that level of detail. I can tell you that we're winning share in all our hubs, not just Chicago, by the way. We've an amazing competitive tool out there with Starlink to help us monetize that more, even for the next year.

嗯，我不會用那麼細的層級去談對方。我可以告訴你的是，我們在所有樞紐都在贏得市占，不只是芝加哥。我們有一個很棒的競爭工具——Starlink——能幫助我們把這些優勢更進一步變現，甚至在接下來一年也是如此。

I also point out, why Starlink is so important to us is in this unique advantage, is that our hubs are contested much more than the average legacy airline, and therefore there are a lot more splitters that split their business between airlines. In fact, there are a few people in our hubs, I do not know exactly why, that give a higher share of wallet to the other airlines. We're going to reverse that next year and gain more share.

我也要指出，Starlink 對我們之所以如此重要、如此具獨特優勢，是因為我們的樞紐相較一般傳統航空（legacy airline）更常處於競爭拉鋸，因此有更多旅客會把需求分散在不同航空公司之間。事實上，在我們的樞紐裡，有一些人——我也不確定為什麼——把更高的錢包份額（share of wallet）給了其他航空公司。我們明年會扭轉這點並取得更多市占。

We feel really good about the unique aspects for where we're going. For Chicago, whether I like it or not, the FAA has imposed caps, and those are a reality, and that's going to change the game a bit. We like our advantage in Chicago.

我們對於我們前進方向的獨特面向感覺非常好。至於芝加哥，不管我喜不喜歡，FAA 已經施加了容量上限，而那就是現實，這會在某種程度上改變競爭局勢。我們喜歡我們在芝加哥的優勢。

It's a good advantage to have, and we'll work it, and continue to push it. I like our position, quite frankly, in Chicago for the short run and the long run. I do think the competitive heat, as maybe you would describe it, is going to be different for them a vast majority of 2027, just because of the conditions placed upon us by the FAA, and also because of our gains of share because of Starlink.

這是一個很好的優勢，我們會善用它並持續推進。坦白說，無論短期或長期，我都喜歡我們在芝加哥的定位。我確實認為你所說的競爭熱度，在 2027 年的大多數時間對他們而言會有所不同，原因只是 FAA 對我們施加的條件，以及我們因 Starlink 而帶來的市占提升。

John Godyn, Citigroup.

John Godyn，花旗集團（Citigroup）。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Scott, I just wanted to ask another one about the industry structure and really just get your perspective. You talk about a structure where there is a small cluster of airlines that are succeeding, executing, winning, et cetera, and a separate group that are struggling.

嘿，各位。謝謝讓我提問。Scott，我想再問一題關於產業結構的問題，想聽聽你的觀點。你談到一種結構：有一小群航空公司在成功、在執行、在勝出等等，而另一群則在掙扎。

When we look at that group that's struggling, generally, oversimplifying their turnaround plans are usually something like we're going to add some premium seats, we're going to change some fees and fares, we're going to add a couple bells and whistles for the passengers, and we're going to double or triple our earnings in two or three years, which, of course, is way faster than United did when it was doing its turnaround.

當我們看那個在掙扎的群體時，一般來說——簡化來講——他們的翻身計畫通常像是：我們要增加一些高端座位、我們要調整一些費用和票價、我們要替乘客加幾個小功能小配備，然後我們要在兩三年內把獲利翻倍或翻三倍；當然，這比聯合航空當年做轉型時快得多。

You are somebody who has actually quarterbacked a lot of these turnarounds successfully. I'm just curious what your reaction is when you see other airlines that have never done it, simplifying it in that way.

你是實際上成功主導過許多這類轉型的人。我只是好奇，當你看到其他從未做過的人，用那種方式把事情簡化時，你的反應是什麼？

Well, thanks. You described it kindly. I'll describe it, I think, more accurately. I'm not meaning to be mean. I look at those strategies as hope is our strategy, and it's not going to work. The reason it doesn't work is because it's not bells and whistles. You used the term bells and whistles. You can't just put a couple of bells and whistles on it.

嗯，謝謝。你講得很客氣。我會用我認為更精準的方式來描述。我不是要刻薄。我看那些策略就像是「希望就是我們的策略」，而那是行不通的。之所以行不通，是因為這不是加幾個花樣就能解決。你用了「花樣」這個詞。你不能只是加幾個花樣。

You can't just put a first class in. You can't just put in a seat that has a door or whatever. You just can't match selectively some of the things that have been done. It's the whole package. We've the best product, I think, in the Western world now on our aircraft, and we've gotten some recognition of that from others. That's the easiest part to match for another airline, to match the product.

你不能只是加一個頭等艙。你不能只是換一張有門的座椅或其他什麼。你就是不能只挑著去匹配一些已經做到的事情。這是一整套的組合。我認為我們現在在機上產品方面，是西方世界最好的，而且我們也從其他人那裡得到了一些認可。對另一家航空公司來說，最容易去匹配的其實就是產品本身——去匹配產品。

It's really important, but it's the easiest part to match. The rest of the stuff is harder. We're the best, we're the most reliable airline in each one of our hubs. Newark is now the most reliable of the three New York airports. We've invested an incredible amount in technology to do that, and that's why we operate in the hardest places in the country, but that's why we're number one. That's hard to replicate. Technology, incredibly hard to replicate.

這真的很重要，但也是最容易對標的一部分。其餘的部分更難。在我們每一個樞紐機場，我們都是最棒、最可靠的航空公司。紐華克現在是紐約三大機場中最可靠的。為了做到這點，我們在科技上投入了驚人的金額；也正因如此，我們能在全國最艱難的地方營運，而這也是我們成為第一名的原因。這很難被複製。科技，更是極其難以複製。

I don't think people appreciate how big the technology advantage is at United. If you fly United, you can see it in the app, but the app is the tip of the iceberg. We started six years ago, a program, hundreds of millions of dollars that we spent to get our technology moved off of legacy platforms and systems and into modern programs.

我不認為大家充分理解聯合航空在科技上的優勢有多大。如果你搭聯合航空，你在 App 裡就看得到，但 App 只是冰山一角。我們六年前啟動了一個計畫，投入了數億美元，把我們的科技從舊有平台與系統遷移到現代化的程式與架構上。

Not just moving it to the cloud, but moving it to modern platforms so we can move fast and do things that others simply can't do because we did that. At the time, there was no ROI on that, because we didn't know what we'd do with it. But it enables us to do incredible.

不只是搬到雲端，而是搬到現代化平台，讓我們能快速行動、做出其他人因為沒做這件事而根本做不到的事。在當時，這件事沒有投資報酬率（ROI），因為我們也不知道要拿它來做什麼。但它讓我們能做到非常驚人的事。

Our technology lead is massive versus, I don't know who the second-best airline in the world, but it's massive versus all of them. Finally, service. When you create an airline that your employees are proud of, and that's my job, is to get our employees inspired to believe in United, and they do, and they are delivering for customers. You put that whole package together, that's what being premium. It's all of the above. I like the analogy that I use.

我們的科技領先幅度非常巨大；我不知道世界上第二好的航空公司是誰，但我們對所有人都是大幅領先。最後是服務。當你打造一家讓員工引以為傲的航空公司——而我的工作就是讓員工受到激勵、相信聯合航空——他們確實做到了，也正在為客戶交付成果。把這整套組合放在一起，這就是所謂的高端（premium）。就是以上全部。我喜歡用我常用的一個比喻。

You can't just take a Four Seasons room, copy the room, put it in a Motel 6, and expect it to be a Four Seasons. You need everything else that goes with it, to be successful. There are only two airlines in the country that have been doing it. We've been doing it for 10 years. You just don't snap your fingers and say, oh, I'm going to match this one element, and it works.

你不能只把四季酒店的一間房間拿來複製，放進 Motel 6，就期待它變成四季酒店。你需要所有其他配套，才能成功。全國只有兩家航空公司一直在做這件事。我們已經做了 10 年。你不可能彈指一下就說，喔，我要對標這一個元素，然後就能奏效。

I'm not worried about it as a competitor. They're doing that. It might be better for their own airlines, they may be able to upsell at their own airlines and stuff, but brand loyal customers are not going to switch because of that.

我不把這當作競爭威脅。他們在做那件事。這也許對他們自己的航空公司更好，他們可能可以在自家航班做加價銷售等等，但品牌忠誠的客戶不會因為那樣就轉換。

There was a lot there. One thing you didn't emphasize was international networks and the importance of international networks in all of this.

剛剛內容很多。有一點你沒有特別強調：國際航網，以及國際航網在這整件事中的重要性。

Well-

嗯——

We do see some of these domestic carriers kind of suggesting or exploring or trying to execute on international build-outs. Any perspective there?

我們確實看到一些國內航空公司在暗示、探索，或嘗試執行國際航網擴張。你對此有什麼看法？

No. The reason I didn't say that's because the commodity part of the business is the route network. Almost everyone in the business, with the exception of people that sit in the conference rooms at United and Delta, thinks of air travel as a commodity. The route network is incredibly important. Patrick is sitting in this room.

沒有。之所以我沒提，是因為這個產業的「商品化」部分就是航線網路。幾乎業界所有人——除了坐在聯合航空和達美會議室裡的那些人——都把航空旅行視為一種商品。航線網路非常重要。Patrick 就坐在這個房間裡。

He is the best in the world at cool destinations on the map like Nuuk, Greenland, or Ulaanbaatar, or flying to Sapporo now. That's a nice to have for the frequent flyer program, but that's the commodity part of the business. The service, product, technology, and reliability are what sets a brand-loyal airline apart. By the way, for international, United was born on third base. I wish we had a huge domestic hub like Atlanta or Dallas. We don't.

他是全世界最擅長在地圖上規劃酷炫目的地的人，例如格陵蘭的努克（Nuuk）、烏蘭巴托（Ulaanbaatar），或是現在飛札幌。這對常旅客計畫來說是加分項，但那仍然是這門生意的商品化部分。服務、產品、科技與可靠性，才是讓一家擁有品牌忠誠度的航空公司脫穎而出的關鍵。順帶一提，在國際航線上，聯合航空一出生就站在三壘。我希望我們有像亞特蘭大或達拉斯那樣巨大的國內樞紐。我們沒有。

That's a weakness for us compared to the other guys. But on international, Newark, Dulles, and San Francisco are really the three best hubs in the country for international, particularly premium, but all international service. And we happen to have hubs in those places. It's just a natural advantage for us.

相較於其他人，這是我們的弱點。但在國際航線上，紐華克、杜勒斯和舊金山，確實是全美三個最好的國際樞紐——尤其是高端（premium），但其實涵蓋所有國際服務。而我們剛好在這些地方都有樞紐。這對我們來說就是天然的優勢。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Scott, I think there is an assumption that whenever fuel eventually goes lower, we're going to give some chunk of this pricing back, and I will preface, maybe this is just a really dumb question, but you are all demonstrating so much more pricing power than I think any of us thought a few quarters ago. It's like, why cannot price or RASM or whatever continue to go up whenever fuel eventually goes lower?

嗨，謝謝。早安。Scott，我想大家有個假設：一旦燃油價格最終下來，我們就會把其中一部分票價讓利回去。我先說，也許這是個很蠢的問題，但你們展現出的定價能力，遠比我們幾個季度前想像的強很多。那為什麼當燃油最終下來時，票價或 RASM（每可用座位英里收入）或其他指標不能繼續上升呢？

I guess, can pricing ever really decouple from capacity, or is that just way too naive of a thought or hope?

我想問的是：定價是否可能真正與運力脫鉤？還是這樣的想法或期待太天真了？

It's an insightful question, and I will try to answer it. I have answered too many questions today, but I will answer this too because I think it's really important. First, I think it's important to note that while pricing has gone up a lot this year, it's still down in real terms compared to 2019. So we're bouncing still off of a COVID low. And air travel remains a great value.

這是個很有洞見的問題，我會試著回答。我今天回答了太多問題，但我也會回答這個，因為我覺得非常重要。首先，我認為要注意的是：雖然今年票價上漲很多，但以實質（通膨調整後）來看，仍然低於 2019 年。所以我們仍是在從 COVID 的低點反彈。而航空旅行仍然是很划算的。

The more important point for will it stay and will it hold is I think we're demonstrating this year that it's different this time. It's different this time because costs have escalated so much across the industry. It's not just fuel price. Our airport fees at our hub airports are 60% higher now than they were pre-COVID. And those are the kinds. That escalate, maintenance fees, engines, all that stuff has just gone through the roof.

更重要的問題是：它會不會維持、能不能守住。我認為我們今年正在證明，這一次不一樣。這一次不一樣，是因為全產業的成本上升太多。不只是燃油價格。我們在樞紐機場的機場費用，現在比 COVID 前高了 60%。而這類成本——再加上維修費、引擎等等，所有這些都飆到天上去了。

Those apply to every airline. In the past, the cost leaders were the high margin, low-cost airlines. They are now the low margin, no longer low-cost airlines, because costs have been harmonized. Every airline, like six to 10 US airlines are going to lose money this year. It's expensive to fly airplanes. You can't continue to exist unless you can get to profitability.

這些成本適用於每一家航空公司。過去，成本領先者是高毛利、低成本的航空公司。現在它們變成低毛利、也不再低成本的航空公司，因為成本已經被拉齊（趨同）。今年每一家航空公司——大概有 6 到 10 家美國航空公司——都會虧錢。飛機營運很昂貴。如果無法達到獲利，你就不可能繼續存在。

I think the tide has to rise for everyone, or those airlines simply won't exist, which would, of course, adjust pricing as well. They won't exist if they can't get pricing up. That's what's happened this year. People, by and large, have been willing to accept lower load factors. I think it's an important point. I said it in my opening script. Maybe we'll continue to trade that, and maybe that way we get there next year anyway.

我認為潮水必須讓所有人一起上升，否則那些航空公司就不會存在；當然，這也會調整定價。如果它們無法把票價拉上去，就不會存在。這就是今年發生的事。整體而言，大家都願意接受較低的載客率。我認為這點很重要。我在開場稿裡也說過。也許我們會繼續用這種方式做取捨，而也許這樣我們明年就能達成目標。

It doesn't happen 100%. There's still temptation from people to run fare sales and things, but mostly people have been willing to trade yield for load factor because they look at it and say, I have to charge what my cost is. It costs me X to fly an airplane. My yield has to be higher than X. That sort of fundamental math applies to every airline.

這不會百分之百發生。仍然有人會受到誘惑去做票價促銷之類的事，但大多數人都願意用收益率去換取載客率，因為他們看了之後會說：我必須收取能覆蓋我成本的價格。我讓一架飛機起飛的成本是 X。我的收益率必須高於 X。這種基本的數學原理適用於每一家航空公司。

It's actually why I'm pretty confident that we're not going to take steps backwards in pricing because everyone's looking at. They got to get their yield at least above their cost. A number of airlines aren't there yet. So I feel confident. I've been around the industry a long time like you, and it's certainly easier, by the way, if there was less capacity. It's more straightforward.

這其實也是為什麼我相當有信心，我們不會在定價上倒退，因為每個人都在看這件事。他們至少得讓收益率高於成本。有不少航空公司目前還沒做到。所以我很有信心。我在這個產業待很久了，跟你一樣；順帶一提，如果運能更少，確實會更容易。會更直接明瞭。

Because the temptation to run a sale and boost your load factor is lower if you're already booked high. It'd certainly be easier, but I think there's a good chance. I certainly think pricing is going to stay, but I think that there's a good chance that the industry surprises to the upside on yield next year, even in a higher capacity environment.

因為如果你本來訂位率就很高，想做促銷來拉高載客率的誘惑就會比較低。當然會更容易，但我認為機會很大。我確實認為定價會維持住，而且我也認為明年即使在運能較高的環境下，產業在收益率方面很可能會帶來上行驚喜。

Mike, just real quick, when you talk about 100% fuel recapture next year, realistically, what's the fuel price we need to get back to to actually get there?

Mike，很快問一下，當你談到明年 100% 燃油回收時，務實來說，我們需要燃油價格回到什麼水準才能真正達成？

Look, we're trying not to be a hedge fund or fuel trader. What we do is we look at current crack spreads, and we look at the forward curve for Brent. If you look at that, fuel price in 2027 would be over $4 for the full year, and it would be about $4.50 for Q1 and $4.20 for Q2, drifting to $3.70 by 4Q at 2027. We think about that as the base case. I'm sure that's wrong, but we don't try to prognosticate on any different view versus the forward curve. That's what we would need to pass through.

你看，我們不想把自己搞得像避險基金或燃油交易員。我們做的是看目前的裂解價差（crack spreads），也看布蘭特原油的遠期曲線。如果你看那個，2027 年全年燃油價格會超過每加侖 4 美元，第一季大約 4.50 美元、第二季約 4.20 美元，到 2027 年第四季會下滑到約 3.70 美元。我們把這當作基本情境。我確定這會不準，但我們不會試圖提出任何不同於遠期曲線的預測觀點。那就是我們需要轉嫁出去的水準。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. A couple quick ones. Andrew, where are you seeing the most sequential improvement in yields into 4Q, either by geography or customer segment? Really hoping, I know broad-based is a popular term right now, really hoping we can get more than that. Thank you.

嗨，謝謝。早安。幾個快速問題。Andrew，你看到進入第四季時，收益率在環比改善上最明顯的是哪裡——不論是按地理區域或客群區隔？我真的希望——我知道「全面性」現在是個很流行的說法——但真的希望你能給的不只是這個。謝謝。

Sure. The simple answer, as I said earlier, is leisure yields are higher than business, but business is still strong. The momentum is a bit stronger in international. As you saw in Q3, Latin had a great quarter. I expect that to happen yet again in Q4. We're not going to lose any momentum there. I also expect the Atlantic and the Pacific to gain momentum. That's why we gave the guide, and that's how we're talking about our acceleration into Q4. Hopefully that helps.

當然。簡單的答案，如我先前說的，休閒旅遊的收益率高於商務，但商務仍然強勁。動能在國際線稍微更強。如你在第三季看到的，拉丁美洲表現非常好。我預期第四季還會再發生一次；我們不會在那裡失去任何動能。我也預期大西洋與太平洋航線會增強動能。這就是我們給出指引的原因，也是我們談論第四季加速的方式。希望有幫助。

That does help. Then just very quickly, cargo, can you speak to. You mentioned that it's mostly yield, but is this macro? Is this geography? Is this go to market? What is driving the continued strength in cargo? Thank you.

有幫助。那再很快問一下貨運，你能談談嗎。你提到主要是收益率，但這是總體因素嗎？是地理因素嗎？是市場進入策略（go-to-market）嗎？是什麼在驅動貨運持續走強？謝謝。

Asia is definitely very strong. As you know from our numbers, we did not grow our global long haul a lot last year, and in particular in the high cargo tracks, we did not. So we've been focused on yield in the bellies, because the bellies are relatively full to begin with, and so we did a great job on that track. We'll see where it goes next year.

亞洲確實非常強。如你從我們的數字所知，我們去年全球長程運能並沒有大幅成長，特別是在高貨運航線上更是如此。所以我們一直把重點放在機腹載貨的收益率上，因為機腹本來就相對接近滿載，因此我們在那條戰線做得很好。明年會怎麼走，我們再觀察。

But the environment for cargo, I think, does remain strong. It's more of a commodity-based product than our passenger seats at this point. We're aware of that. We're doing our best to even de-commoditize cargo. That's a whole another subject. But cargo is an amazing part of United Airlines. We lead the way in the US and expect to continue to do so for a long time to come.

但我認為貨運的環境仍然強勁。就目前而言，它比我們的客運座位更像是一種大宗商品型產品。我們知道這點。我們也盡力讓貨運「去商品化」（de-commoditize）。那又是另一個話題。但貨運是聯合航空非常了不起的一部分。我們在美國領先，並預期在很長一段時間內都會持續領先。

Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

Catherine O'Brien，高盛。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for having me. Just one on corporate for Andrew. So, it continues to be a bright spot. I understand that leisure yields are having a bit of a recovery here, but still really strong corporate yields. With corporate load factors up 1 point in 3Q, that's better than the, I think, up 0.5 points in 2Q. Do you expect that to continue to improve based on current 4Q trends?

嗨，各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。有一題關於企業客戶想問 Andrew。所以，企業客戶仍然是亮點。我理解休閒收益率正在有些回升，但企業收益率仍然非常強。第三季企業載客率上升 1 個百分點，優於第二季我記得大約上升 0.5 個百分點。你預期基於目前第四季趨勢，這會持續改善嗎？

Then I guess maybe just higher level, if we see a larger step up in corporate volume recoveries, which I think are still a decent amount lower than 2019, what could this mean for premium cabin pricing over the medium term?

另外可能更高層次地問，如果我們看到企業量的復甦出現更大幅度的提升——我認為相較 2019 年仍低不少——這在中期可能對高端艙等定價意味著什麼？

Yeah, corporate is still, I'd say, four to five load factor points behind 2019 as a contribution to United Airlines. As that continues to move in this direction, obviously we're really excited. This is another place that we're born on third place for all the obvious reasons, or third base, not third place, for all the obvious reasons.

是的，企業客戶作為對聯合航空的貢獻，我會說載客率仍比 2019 年落後大約 4 到 5 個百分點。隨著它持續往這個方向改善，我們當然非常興奮。這也是另一個我們「一出生就站在三壘」的地方，原因大家都很清楚——是三壘，不是第三名——原因大家都很清楚。

I think that's a meaningful tailwind to the premium global business carriers, of which there is primarily two in the country. That's, I think, a big tailwind for us. The trends for Q4 look identical in this space to Q3 for me in terms of the yield production and the volumes and the revenue. We're going into a, I think, a particularly strong Q4, where our business traffic just shines in the United network. I think you'll see that when we're talking about this in January of next year.

我認為這對高端、全球型的商務航空公司是個重要的順風，而在這個國家主要就兩家。我認為這對我們是很大的順風。就收益率產出、運量與營收而言，第四季在這個領域的趨勢對我來說與第三季完全一致。我們正進入一個我認為特別強勁的第四季，在聯合航空的網路中，我們的商務客流會特別亮眼。我想你們會在明年一月我們談到這件事時看到。

Maybe just one on 2027 capacity. As we've talked about, United is one of the only carriers making money this year. Capacity to accelerate into next year. I think there are quite a few other carriers who should probably be looking at their 2027 capacity plans with a lot more scrutiny than United. Does overall industry capacity growth figure into your plans on growth, just given the impact that could have on the pricing environment?

再問一題關於 2027 年運能。如我們談過的，聯合航空是今年少數幾家賺錢的航空公司之一。運能將在明年加速成長。我認為還有不少其他航空公司，可能應該比聯合航空更嚴格地檢視他們的 2027 年運能計畫。整體產業運能成長是否會納入你們的成長規劃考量，考量到它可能對定價環境造成的影響？

Yeah. Scott talked about this, I think, in a great amount of detail in that I do not think anybody's capacity plans for 2027 are firm, and even when they are, they probably won't be realized for numerous different reasons. I will leave it at that. I think we've a very good track record of making great capacity decisions, and I expect we'll do the same in 2027.

是的。Scott 談過這點，我認為他講得非常詳細：我不認為任何人的 2027 年運能計畫是確定的；即便看似確定，也可能因為許多不同原因而無法實現。我就說到這裡。我認為我們在做出良好運能決策方面有非常好的紀錄，我也預期我們在 2027 年會做出同樣的決策。

This concludes the analyst portion of this call.

以上為本次電話會議分析師提問部分的結束。

(Operator Instructions) Leslie Josephs, CNBC.

(接線員指示) Leslie Josephs，CNBC。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Andrew, you had mentioned the load factors going down a little bit and how maybe going forward the pricing is so strong it does not really matter. Do you worry at all about customers getting priced out of air travel, period, and if airfare stays this high?

嗨，各位早安。Andrew，你提到載客率略有下降，以及未來票價如此強勁，可能其實影響不大。你是否擔心有些顧客會因票價過高而被排除在航空旅行之外（甚至不再搭飛機），如果機票價格持續維持在這麼高的水準？

I also wanted to ask you, Scott, Ed Bastian is getting honored at The Wings Club Foundation later this week, and I was wondering if you've any words for him, and how you see your competition with Delta currently. Thank you.

我也想問你，Scott，Ed Bastian 本週稍晚將在 The Wings Club Foundation 受到表揚，我想知道你是否有什麼話想對他說，以及你如何看待目前你們與達美航空（Delta）的競爭。謝謝。

Well, I will start then. I have a huge respect for Ed, and I have been public in saying I took inspiration from what Delta did. Now, I think we've passed them and we're the innovator now, but I took a lot of inspiration from what Ed did. I am going to miss it because we host a big charity event in Dallas this weekend, but I texted Ed as soon as he got it, and said, well deserved, maybe a decade late, that you should have got it a long time ago.

那我先開始回答。我非常敬重 Ed，而且我也曾公開表示，我從達美所做的事情中獲得啟發。現在，我認為我們已經超越他們，而我們才是現在的創新者，但我確實從 Ed 的作為中得到很多靈感。我會錯過那個活動，因為我們這週末在達拉斯要主辦一場大型慈善活動，但他一獲獎我就立刻傳簡訊給他，說：實至名歸，可能晚了十年，你早就該拿到了。

I think Delta and Ed have done a great job. It's well deserved. He should have gotten it earlier. But I am sorry I am going to miss it, because we've got a conflict.

我認為達美和 Ed 都做得非常好。這個榮譽實至名歸。他應該更早就獲得。但很可惜我會缺席，因為我們行程衝突。

Leslie, I will take the first part of the question, I guess. Look, our perspective is we need to charge prices that recover the total cost of what it costs to fly an airline, and we've to do that. That being said, as we create our products, we're aiming to elevate for all, in all cabins, for all passengers, and create value for all in the process of doing so.

Leslie，我想我先回答問題的第一部分。你看，我們的觀點是，我們必須訂出能夠回收經營一家航空公司全部成本的票價，而我們也必須這麼做。話雖如此，在打造我們的產品時，我們的目標是讓所有人都能享有提升的體驗——所有艙等、所有乘客——並在這個過程中為所有人創造價值。

The latest example is Wi-Fi that works. It works at scale, and it's going to be a reason, I think, customers increasingly choose United Airlines in 2027 and beyond.

最新的例子就是可用的 Wi‑Fi。它能在大規模下運作，我認為這將成為顧客在 2027 年及之後愈來愈多選擇聯合航空（United Airlines）的原因。

John Pletz, Crain's Chicago Business.

John Pletz，Crain's Chicago Business。

Morning. You mentioned that you think capacity at O'Hare will be lower for longer. Why is that, and why is it going to be good for United?

早安。你提到你認為奧黑爾（O'Hare）的運能會在更長一段時間內維持較低水準。為什麼會這樣？以及為什麼這會對聯合航空有利？

Well, this is a really complicated assessment, but there is an enormous amount of construction occurring at O'Hare. It goes through the early 2030s, and that's the timeline. We wish it was faster, by the way. We were always supportive of redeveloping the field and getting modern facilities when maybe others were not. We look forward to those facilities being built. But in the meantime, it's a construction zone and we need to reflect that reality.

嗯，這是一個非常複雜的評估，但奧黑爾目前正在進行大量施工。工程會一路延續到 2030 年代初期，這就是時間表。順帶一提，我們也希望能更快。我們一直支持重建機場場區、打造現代化設施，即使在其他人可能不支持的時候也是如此。我們期待這些設施完工。但在此期間，這裡就是一個施工區，我們必須反映這個現實。

I think the taxiways and other aspects of the airfield, which do not have immediate changes planned for them, are just going to take years to resolve. It's disappointing. As we invest all this money in the field, I think United Airlines would like to grow. But at the same time, it's important that it be a reliable airfield for all travelers on all airlines.

我認為滑行道以及機場場區的其他面向——其中有些並沒有規劃立即的變更——都需要多年才能解決。這令人失望。在我們投入這麼多資金於場區的同時，我想聯合航空也希望能成長。但同時，重要的是它必須對所有航空公司的所有旅客而言都是可靠的機場場區。

We've had numerous conversations with the FAA about this, and that's where I think it's coming out at. My guess is that this restriction lasts for longer than its full effect, but that's simply my guess based on what I see in terms of construction at the airport and the timelines for completion.

我們已就此與 FAA 進行過多次對話，我認為目前的結論大概就是如此。依我看，這項限制持續的時間可能會比其完整影響期更久，但這只是我根據機場施工情況與完工時程所做的推測。

You cut out there a bit. You said: My guess is. What?

你剛剛有點斷線。你說：我猜是。是什麼？

That this is a restriction that lasts until the construction at the airport is done and the taxiway situation has been resolved.

我猜這項限制會一直持續到機場施工完成、滑行道的問題獲得解決為止。

All right, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Edwards for closing remarks.

我現在把電話會議交回給 Kristina Edwards 做結語。

Thanks everyone for joining the call today. Please contact Investor Media Relations if you've any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Bye, everyone.

感謝各位今天參與本次電話會議。如有任何進一步問題，請聯絡投資人媒體關係部門（Investor Media Relations），我們期待在下個季度再與各位交流。各位再見。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。各位女士、先生，今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。