達信公司 (TXT) 2007 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Textron's fourth quarter earnings call.

At this time all listeners are in a listen-only mode and later we'll conduct a question and answer session.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Joining us today are Mr.

Lewis Campbell, Chairman, President and CEO, and Mr.

Ted French, CFO, and Mr.

Doug Wilburne, Vice President of Investor Relations.

And I'll now turn the meeting over to Mr.

Wilburne, please go ahead.

Thanks Laurie and good morning everyone.

Before we begin, I'd like to mention our discussion today will include remarks about future estimates and expectations.

These forward looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our annual SEC filings and also in today's press release.

A calculation of 2008 ROIC, which we will be discussing today, is also attached to our press release and available on the website in the IR section.

Finally also, you can find a slide deck on our website containing key data, items that we're going to discuss on today's call.

Finally now, moving to our results for the fourth quarter, revenues were $3.8 billion, up 18% from last year's fourth quarter.

Earnings per share from continuing operation were $1.02, up 32% from $0.77 a year ago, and compared to our expectation of 82 to $0.92.

Our EPS performance reflected good delivery execution at Cessna and Bell, which allowed for early delivery of seven jets and five helicopters, generating a $0.07 EPS benefit in the quarter.

We also had an unanticipated Canadian tax benefit at TFC, which was worth about $0.02 per share, partially offset by a penny of dilution related to our acquisition of AAI and Columbia Aircraft, all of which were not included in our guidance.

On the cash front, full year cash flow provided by continuing operations was 1.2 billion with free cash flow of 796 million.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Lewis.

Thank you Doug, good morning everyone.

Our fourth quarter culminated a year of powerful performance at Textron on many fronts.

Full year revenues were up 15%, about 13% organically by the way.

EPS from continuing ops was up 32%, free cash flow was up 15% and I think more importantly, each of our manufacturing segments showed year over year operating improvement, resulting in 160 basis point increase in overall manufacturing margins.

And finally, return on invested capital improved 800 basis points, reaching 24.8% in 2007.

Now last year's solid results are evidence of the continuing progress we're making in our journey to become the premier multi-industry company.

We fortified and expanded our future growth potential through many transformational actions taken last year, basically in the following four categories: operational improvement, capital investment, strategic acquisitions and new product development.

Let me say more.

We continue to attack operational improvement, primarily through the deployment, penetration and maturation of Textron Six Sigma into the processes by which we manage and improve our businesses.

Last year we certified an additional 153 Black Belts and 1,429 Green Belts, which now brings our totals to 890 Black Belts and 4,200 Green Belts.

Because leadership is so vital in a cultural initiative like this, we've mandated that every member of our global leadership team, which comprises the top 180 leaders from around the world, attain a Green Belt certification.

Continuous systematic business improvement and operational execution are becoming the number one cultural identifier at Textron.

Happily, as we look at our end market opportunities over the next five years, we see tremendous growth potential and we're committing the necessary capital to service this demand.

Let me give you some examples.

At Bell, we're investing for an unprecedented expansion of output and we've made a significant amount of progress with the leadership and organizational capabilities there.

The ongoing process improvements across operations have begun to show the expected results, with record gearbox production supporting continued V-22 production ramp-up.

These improvements support our plan to increase V-22 deliveries to 17 ships this year, up from 14 in 2007, and we're well on our way to produce 36 ships in 2011, a tremendous expansion of output given the capacity requirements of each V-22.

The program is doing very well on all fronts, most importantly, the war fighter, the Marine Corps aircraft are demonstrating excellent operating performance as they fly the full range of in-theater missions in Iraq.

We also made continuous progress with our H-1 program last year, delivering the first ten production units.

However, with the conversion from remanufactured aircraft to all new, an important next step, we've encountered some cost and delivery issues for the new cabins from our supplier.

We're still negotiating with the customer and our supplier but we recorded a charge at Bell in the quarter to cover anticipated costs.

In the meantime, the H-1 will begin op about two shortly and we anticipate a successful outcome, and therefore we're optimistic that we'll have a full rate production decision by year 1 on the H-1.

Moving to ARH, we're currently working under an expanded development contract, and we've made tremendous progress on this program with our customer over the past nine months.

A revised initial production plan has been developed, and we expect a signed agreement around midyear.

Based on this new understanding, during the quarter we reduced the ARH reserve, which we had established earlier this year.

Moving to commercial at Bell, here we made excellent progress with capacity expansion and execution.

As we delivered 181 units during the year, up 14% from 2006, which in turn was up 29% from 2005.

To concentrate output on deliveries of our high demand aircraft, we made a decision in the fourth quarter to streamline our Legacy commercial offerings and recorded a related charge.

Moving to Systems, we delivered 576 ASVs for the year, and that's up 21% from 2006.

We expect 15% growth in armored vehicle revenues in 2008, due to a significant growth in aftermarket services, upgrade requirements for existing units and early foreign military demands.

We recently received a contract from the Army that covers the U.S.

production funding at the current delivery schedule, 48 per month through May of 2009, with anticipated supplements providing funding through the balance of '09.

We're working with the DOD for out year funding to bridge the military's vehicle requirements until the new joint light tactical vehicle production begins sometime next decade.

Investing in capacity at Cessna also paid off this year, as we delivered 387 jets, a new record and up 26% from '06.

We have additional CapEx requirements at Cessna over the next several years to accommodate ever-increasing output and new models.

We also invested in a number of strategic acquisitions last year, each of which strengthened existing businesses and will contribute to future growth.

For example, at Greenlee, we expanded our product offerings with the acquisition of Paladin Tools, a telecom test gear manufacturer.

We added to Bell Helicopter's support and service capabilities with the addition of Cabair, a helicopter maintenance and service center located in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and most recently McTurbine, a provider of helicopter engine maintenance and repair services, which came as part of AAI acquisition.

And just last week we brought in SkyBOOKS to provide helicopter operators with advanced electronic maintenance and operating log capabilities.

At Cessna, and as you know, we acquired a Columbia Aircraft, an innovative high performance propeller aircraft manufacturer.

This acquisition accelerates our critical product extension strategy in this class of aircraft.

And our addition of AAI to the precision engagement capability at Systems significantly augments our ability to compete and win as the prime contractor for this important military strategy going forward.

By the way, we're well into the AAI integration process, we're using Textron Six Sigma tools to ensure that the additional yields and synergies that we expect, both in the amount and timing, will be possible just as we expected when we bought into the combination.

Finally, we're also making considerable investments in innovation and new product developments across our businesses.

We increased R&D spending by 11% last year, bringing many new products to market and we're planning another 24% increase this year.

We launched our new professional hand tool line in the beginning of the year at Greenlee, and the introduction has been a resounding success.

At Caltex we played an integral role in developing a selective catalytic reduction system, an innovative OEM product, which reduces nitrogen oxide emissions to meet the most stringent environmental regulations.

And in today's environmentally alert marketplace, we've just introduced the world's most energy efficient golf car with many exciting new features that will be attractive to golf course operators and golfers alike.

And if the value investing new products needed any validation, our ending aircraft backlog of 16.4 billion, up 41% from a year ago, should be convincing.

On top of that, at systems we have a $2.4 billion backlog, plus we have $1 billion worth of Bell 429 customer purchase agreements not yet in backlog.

So if you add all that together, we have nearly 20 billion in existing customer orders at Cessna, Bell and Systems.

We expect the 429 will enter into the backlog after first production flight expected around midyear.

We're targeting our first 429 delivery by the end of the year, or early 2009, and have a production ramp plan that goes to 60 units annually by 2011.

Demand for commercial helicopters remains strong, as we booked 268 orders in '07, significantly higher than last year's deliveries of 181.

And global demand for business jets also remains unprecedented.

Cessna added another 164 orders in the fourth quarter, bringing the full year to 773 orders taken in 2007, an all time record and up from 496 orders in 2006.

Now, clearly there are two major factors driving business jet orders.

First, there's a global expansion of demand and the second is new models like our Sovereign, the CJ4 and the Mustang.

Importantly, as I've said before, the Mustang being a lower-priced point offering has opened an entirely new universe of potential jet owners.

And while Mustang customers are adding to demand today, the even better news is many of these owners will eventually choose to upgrade to a larger Citation, driving future demand as well.

And by the way, our launch of Mustang has been as near to perfect as any launch we've ever undertaken at Cessna.

When we introduced the Mustang at the 2002 NBAA show, we said we would fully certify and begin deliveries in 2006 and further we would ramp to 150 units of production in 2009.

We're doing exactly that, and the market demand has materialized just as we expected it would.

Which brings us to our final topic at Cessna, and that is our announcement this morning that we're moving forward with our much anticipated large cabin intercontinental Citation jet.

We believe this strategic step strengthens our position as the premier global business jet manufacturer.

We're confident we'll bring this aircraft to market on time, on budget and on performance.

More importantly, we've studied the marketplace, including current and potential competitive offerings, and believe there will be significant demand for this new model well into the future.

In fact, we've received a large number of advanced customer requests to be placed in the production queue.

Each of these requests was accompanied by a $100,000 refundable deposit.

With the official announcement, we'll be converting these indications of interest into binding contracts with nonrefundable initial deposits of $1 million each.

And we expect to have at least 70 firm orders for the LCC by the end of this year.

In fact, we're expecting another banner year of new orders at Cessna all around.

Based on our current customer activity, our marketing plans, and assessment of the marketplace, we expect to book over 570 total jet orders this year, well above our delivery forecast of 470.

Given that our delivery schedule is completely booked out well into 2009, and supported by the diversification of our order book, we expect continued uninterrupted growth at Cessna well into the next decade.

Now, I'm sure that there are many questions about the LCC at this point, I'm sure we can spend the rest of the call on that subject, but we need to maximize the marketing impact of our launch and we will not be discussing further details about the new model until our press conference on February 6.

The only exception is that Ted, in just a few minutes, will discuss how the LCC is expected to affect our financial results in 2008, which is obviously already fully reflected in our outlook.

Now, let me change subjects for a minute.

I want to make a few comments about our expected performance in the context of the current economic situation.

We now know that U.S.

corporate profits contracted in the third quarter of 2007, primarily driven by the financial sector, and economists expect continued softness through at least the first half of 2008.

Obviously, this news and the likely fact that we're already in the U.S.

economic downturn, are weighing heavily on the stock market.

But I have to say that we're puzzled at Textron by the degree with which our shares have fallen compared to our peers in the market overall.

We believe that a significant amount of our enterprise is relatively unaffected by the economy, and that we are well-positioned for this environment.

First, only a small portion of Bell Helicopter and Textron Systems is driven by the economy, so we expect growth at these business units will remain relatively uninterrupted.

At Cessna, we've analyzed the 2001, two, three, that period, that jet downturn, which was the worst downcycle we've ever experienced.

And we carefully modeled our next three years' deliveries on the basis of annual percentage cancellations and percent reductions in new orders during that prior period, to really understand specifically how a similar downturn could affect our 2008 through 2010 delivery outlook.

Even subjected to the severe 2003 scenario, our delivery outlook for 2008 and 2009 remains unaffected and we would expect 2010 to be no worse than flat with 2009.

Now, this is simply a function of the unprecedented backlog which currently stands at 1,418 units and compares to 811 units at the end of 2000.

Yet keep in mind we do not believe the extreme 2003 scenario will repeat, in terms of cancellation rates or order in-take, because both our backlog and orders have been better diversified by customers, specifically we have less dependence on fractional and by market, with a significantly higher international mix.

Furthermore, the 2003 downturn was also magnified by the 9/11 disruption, that among other things halted business jet travel in 2001, placing unique uncertainty into the marketplace.

So in summary, we continue to have confidence in our increasing deliveries in 2008, 2009, and 2010, even given the current economic uncertainty.

As for industrial, the biggest driver there is Kautex, and the current downturn in U.S.

auto builds and slower global demand are already built into our outlook.

Finally at TFC we're not involved in sub prime or other misunderstood or high-risk products, and we expect our portfolio credit performance to remain within normal historic ranges, in the softer economic environment.

In conclusion, we see another solid year in continued growth at Textron in 2008 and beyond.

In fact, we see 8 to 12% annual revenue growth through the planning horizon.

And reinforced by transformation strategy, we believe that we'll be able to convert this growth into expanding shareholder value for years to come.

Now I'll turn the call over to Ted.

Ted?

Thank you, Lewis and good morning everyone.

I want to start by reinforcing Lewis' optimism for growth.

Obviously, the U.S.

economy is now weaker and it's certainly more uncertain.

However, we have good revenue visibility based on our solid growing backlogs, plus we continue to observe positive forward signals in the business jet marketplace.

So let me start by looking at an analysis of our fourth quarter results.

Quarterly revenues increased 18%, while EPS from continuing ops was up 32%, representing another excellent conversion.

Earnings per share were up $0.25 from a year ago.

Volume and mix provided $0.14, higher pricing of about 3.3% added $0.30 a share, and inflation of 3.2% cost us about $0.22.

Performance was a positive $0.24.

The combined headwinds of engineering, research and development, depreciation and pension expense, collectively cost $0.13, and miscellaneous items, including higher corporate expenses, partially offset by favorable foreign exchange and a lower share count cost $0.04.

Taxes cost $0.03 and Textron Financial was lower by a penny.

Now, let's review each of our business segments and I'll start with Cessna.

Cessna's revenues and profits increased 329 million and 75 million respectively in the fourth quarter.

Revenues increased due to higher volume, primarily related to Citation business jets and higher pricing.

Profit increased due to the higher pricing along with the impact of higher volume and favorable warranty performance, partially offset by inflation and increased product development expense.

Continued strength in orders gives us conviction in our outlook, as we now have another record Cessna backlog at 12.6 billion, that's up 4.1 billion or 48% from a year ago.

Moving to Bell, segment revenues increased 120 million for the quarter, while profit was up 36.

Profit in the quarter was affected by the following three items, which Lewis referenced earlier: $30 million in charges for the H-1 program, $16 million of cost for product rationalization in our commercial business, and a $27 million profit benefit related to the ARH program, reflecting a reduction in the ARH reserve of about a third, and recovery of some previously unreimbursed development costs.

Fourth quarter, U.S.

Government revenues were up 81 million, due to the addition of acquisition revenues and higher volume.

The volume increase reflects higher H-1 and sensor fuzed weapon quantities, partially offset by lower ASVs, helicopter aftermarket services and V-22 deliveries.

Profits in our U.S.

Government business were up 41 million, due to favorable performance partially offset by inflation.

The favorable performance primarily reflects lower H-1 charges year-over-year, and the benefits recorded in the quarter for the ARH program.

The favorable performance was partially offset by last year's reimbursement of costs related to hurricane Katrina.

Commercial revenues were up 39 million, while profits were down 5.

Commercial revenues increased due to higher pricing and the benefit from acquisitions, partially offset by lower volume.

Commercial profit decreased primarily due to the product rationalization costs, some inflation and higher engineering, research and development expenses, and lower volume, partially offset by higher pricing.

Bell Helicopter's backlog was 3.8 billion at the end of the year, that's up 23% from 3.1 at the end of '06, benefiting from growth in both military and commercial orders.

Textron Systems' backlog was 2.4 billion, up from 1.3 last year, reflecting both the acquisition of AAI and growth in orders.

Now for industrial.

Revenues and profits increased 113 million and 21 million respectively.

The revenue increase came from higher volume and favorable foreign exchange and higher pricing.

Profits increased due to positive cost performance, higher pricing, and the impact of volume and mix, partially offset by inflation.

Lastly, finance revenues were flat with last year's fourth quarter, reflecting an increase in securitization and other fee income offset by a reduction in finance charges due to the lower interest rate environment.

Segment profit was lower by 4 million, as loss provisions went up, while net interest margin was down.

So net interest margin decline was attributable to an increase in borrowing spreads, partially offset by the increase in securitization and other fee income.

Portfolio quality continues to be absolutely excellent, with a 60-day delinquency rate of 0.43%, nonperforming assets of 1.34% and net charge-offs of 45 basis points.

For the year, then, Textron Financial had record revenues and profits while maintaining excellent credit quality.

Looking to 2008, we expect continued strong credit quality based on the product lines we're in, the creditworthyness of our customers, and the structures of our loans.

Our TFC '08 profit outlook reflects some conservatism, primarily related to the recent narrowing of spreads between the prime rate, upon which the majority of our customers' loans are indexed, and LIBOR, upon which most of our borrowing costs are indexed.

Actually, though, over the last week or so, the spread has begun to return to more normal levels.

But our guidance reflects narrower margins nonetheless, based on an assumption that this anomaly persists at some level through most of the year.

One final comment on fourth quarter results is that the tax rate was lower than we forecasted due to the Canadian tax benefit at TFC.

In addition, the rate was lower due to higher compensation hedge income, which is not taxable and results in a lower reported tax rate but it's fully offset up in corporate spending so it has no impact on earnings per share.

Now for our '08 outlook.

For the full year, we're forecasting earnings in a range of $3.75 to $3.95, and for the first quarter we're targeting EPS between 75 and $0.85.

These amounts fully reflect the 24% increase in ER&D that Lewis mentioned, which equates to 108 million or about $0.29 a share.

Cessna accounts for $0.17 of the increase, of which $0.09 is attributable to the LCC program.

It also reflects $0.09 in dilution from the AAI acquisition, and $0.06 in dilution from the Columbia acquisition, as we invest to strengthen and grow this business.

And finally, our investments in new capacity will result in higher depreciation expense worth about $0.14 a share.

Collectively these items represent about $0.58 in earnings headwinds.

While these investments reduce the '08 earnings growth that we otherwise would have seen, we believe that each will contribute to future revenue growth and increased shareholder value.

We're forecasting cash flow provided by continuing ops to come in at about 1.3 billion, with the need for additional investments in capacity, our capital program next year now looks to be about 550 million, which should result in free cash flow coming in somewhere between 700 and 750 million.

In closing, our outlook at Textron remains very positive.

We're expecting strong growth again this year through the rest of this decade, and beyond.

We have a large military backlog and our products are critical to our armed forces.

We also have a large aircraft backlog, and it would take a major extended global downturn to interrupt the growth in deliveries that our customers have ordered and continue to order.

We believe the real growth opportunities that lie before us, coupled with our ever-improving ability to execute, will translate into increased shareholder value this year and for years to come.

Now, I'd like to ask Doug to come back on and provide some additional '08 data.

Thanks, Ted.

And we'll begin with full year.

For 2008, we expect Bell segment revenues will be up about 20% with margins up about 30 basis points at about 8.9%.

The higher revenues reflect the full year impact of end growth at AAI.

Revenues also reflect delivery of about 17 V-22's, 10 H-1's and about 580 ASVs.

We're targeting 160 commercial deliveries as we concentrate this year's capacity expansion on preassembly production for the large military ramp-up targets in 2010 and beyond.

At Cessna, we're expecting revenues to be 5.9 billion with margins of about 16.5%, reflecting LCC and Columbia Aircraft development costs.

Industrial revenue is expected to be approximately flat at 3.4 billion, with margins of about 6%.

Finance revenues are projected to come in at about 885 million, with segment profit flat with '07, reflecting lower interest margins, higher loss provisions and slightly slower portfolio growth.

At the corporate level, we're assuming share buybacks of three to 4 million shares to maintain a flat share count, for which we're already ahead of schedule, by the way, given our recent share price performance.

By the way, last year we repurchased 5.9 million shares at a cost of $295 million.

We're expecting interest expense of about $141 million, reflecting higher debt levels as a result of last year's acquisitions.

Corporate expenses will be about 243 million, and we anticipate an '08 tax rate of about 32%.

The tax rate presents an additional headwind of about $0.06, and it basically reflects the absence of a number of unique tax benefits in 2007, as well as higher '08 income.

And the additional income results in a higher tax rate due to fixed tax credit items, which do not scale up.

Let's move to the first quarter now.

We expect Bell segment revenues will be about 1.1 billion, with margins of about 8%.

First quarter revenues at Cessna should be about 1.35 billion, margins of about 16.25%, reflecting delivery of about 104 jets.

Industrial segment revenue is expected to be about 850 million, with a margin expectation of about 5.5%.

Finally, finance revenue should be about 205 million with profit between 50 and 55 million.

That concludes our prepared remarks.

And before we go to questions, we'd like to ask that each of you limit yourselves to one question with an optional follow-up to be fair.

So Laurie, with that, we're now ready to open the lines, please.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Our first question from the line of Nicole Parent with Credit Suisse, please go ahead.

Good morning.

I guess first Lewis, your bullish outlook for Cessna is appreciated.

Could you give us a sense when you scrubbed the last recession, you have international demand that's unprecedented, could you give us a sense of how you assess the quality of that backlog, and have you seen any cancellations at all or any kind of customer concerns about what's going on in the marketplace?

Okay.

I think Nicole, I want to give you a really full answer on this one, because we have really looked hard at this topic because we knew what we wanted to say on the call this morning but we wanted to make darn sure.

We have really scrubbed this data.

So let me give you some facts.

Used aircraft, which is a pretty good precursor when it starts to go up, that things are going to slow down some, still remains at our low 10%.

Keep in mind, the late model aircraft, five years and younger, are hard to get in the used aircraft market.

So a lot of those aircraft will probably be sitting there for the rest of their lives.

We have not seen any absorbable deterioration in customer orders.

We have very low, actually I'd say almost unusually low cancellations versus normal years, so that's not there.

Net jet orders which need to be understood in the context of where they're being sold and why, net jet orders and Citation shares are still very good.

Net jet U.S.

orders primarily are for replacement, so that will continue.

And then they've really grown strong in Europe and really picking up steam there.

I mentioned order cancellations.

And then Jack and his team recently had a sales meeting kickoff out in the west, and the sales force is really bullish on what they see and the customers they've contacted.

Another interesting fact, which I find to be kind of cool, is that back in 2000, before we saw 9/11 and the downturn that ended up being just awful through 2003, our backlog for the next three years is now 82% higher than what the backlog was we had for the three-year period.

So the three-year period, '01, '02, '03, we had 693 jets on order for delivery, and for '07, '08, '09, we have 1,260 on order.

So about every way we can look, you mentioned international versus domestic, that's also a strong point.

So I tell you, if there's something coming at us, we can't see it, and if it comes at us as hard as it did in '01, '02, '03, we firmly believe that we'll be able to meet the numbers that we talked about on the call here.

Great, that's helpful, thanks.

And one other follow-up for Ted.

In the charts that you gave us the walk-through from '07 to '08, you cited $0.34 a headwind, I think Doug referenced $0.06 of tax and you had $0.14 of capacity.

Can you just talk a little bit about what the remaining variables are and how you might be able to offset them?

Oh, let me see if I can find that here quickly.

I think the headwind that's on the chart is only depreciation and R&D.

And so those other pieces are in addition to that.

Pension's not a headwind, it's about $0.04 of favorable this year.

Half of what we thought it would be when we talked to you back in February at the analyst day.

That's true, did not come in as strongly as we thought but still $0.04 favorable, nonetheless.

Thank you.

like 14, right?

Right.

So it's all either $0.14 of depreciation, the balance is R&D.

Thank you.

Our next question from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen & Company.

Please go ahead.

Great quarter.

Great quarter.

While you gave us kind of the EPS impact of both LCC and Columbia, could you give us a -- because they're both at Cessna and what we really maybe want to look at is the total ball of wax of R&D and approximately what was it in 2007 and what do you expect it to be in 2008 for Cessna, and going forward, what should we expect for the R&D now that LCC's launched?

I got it right here.

Let me make sure I understand.

You want a total R&D change at Cessna?

Well, the total R&D at Cessna, '07 and '08 so we can see, are other things coming off, because we know LCC and Columbia are moving up.

No, there's other additions.

Total Cessna R&D goes from a little over 270 million to 340 million.

So it's up about $68 million year-over-year.

LCC is 53 of the 68.

Okay.

And just a general sense going forward, now that you committed to LCC, how much is it in absolute terms this year and what's about the profile going to be over the next couple of years so we know, we have some kind of sense as to what this might do?

Well, in absolute terms it's 53 -- it was 20 million last year, it's 53 million in '08, do we have '09?

I've got it somewhere here, I can't put my finger on it.

It goes higher in '09, we know that, at least to about a hundred.

It peaks at about 120 in 2010.

Got it.

Excellent.

Thank you very much.

Yes.

Our next question from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan with Lehman Brothers.

Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys.

Hey, Shannon.

Yes, I mean, can you just give a little more flavor?

You mentioned the positive indicators, expecting 570 orders, can you give us a little flavor on what are the components that go behind that?

Well, I can tell you some basic stuff.

Well, you know, of the 570, you got 70 LCC, right?

500 plus 70.

So it's 500 plus 70.

And, I don't think -- you might never hear us say this again, I don't think we've ever given out that number before, so whether it's conservative or optimistic, you'll have to fend for yourself on that subject.

But we normally end up at least meeting if not beating anything we turn out.

We have a good mix of international customers, that's good.

Well over 50% of deliveries.

We're not heavily dependent on fractional.

Is that number 15%?

Right.

Yeah.

So that's fairly low.

We have some other things on the horizon, if they come true, we'll look really good.

We have, we really are having trouble meeting demand on some of our products over in Europe, because Europe's really heating up.

And so we're wrestling with how we can move production around, be able to deliver a few more products here and there.

So it's just a really good balance of mix.

There's nothing unusual in that book.

I think what's really misunderstood is the depth and strength of the backlog.

We've taken this backlog and torn it apart, and we've modeled a scenario where order in-take rates fall -- and remember we've looked at every downturn in general aviation since the second world war, and this downturn post-9/11 is by far the worst of all of those.

We've taken this existing backlog and we've gone back and modeled the rate of order falloff that we saw in the 2001, '2, '3 time frame, and it's pretty radical by the way, orders fell 68% in the first year, so down two-thirds, came back to being down about a third in the second year and got back to about even by the third year.

So we've modeled that in.

We've modeled the rate of cancellations, which in that last downturn were 160 some-odd over three years, but because our backlog is larger, we modeled a number twice that big into it.

When you take that and take our production plans for '08, '09, and '10 which grow every year by the way, if that same event happens to us over that three-year period of time, we'll still end up with 20 months of backlog by the end of 2010.

So it's just very, very deep, and I don't think that's well-understood.

Okay, great.

Thanks a lot.

And just on the margin on Cessna, I know you have Columbia and the incremental LCC in there, still very strong margin in the quarter, 18.4%, I mean, other than maybe slightly higher Mustang mix, is there anything else you're anticipating in '08 for Cessna that we should know about in terms of a margin headwind?

Just two things to put it into context.

The LCC reduces Cessna's '08 margin by 90 basis points, and Columbia reduces the margins by 70 basis points, which might be a little surprising to you, but we're adding almost $100 million worth of revenue with Columbia, and we actually will have mid-20s kind of expense next year because, while we bought a business, we're also really buying and developing a product line.

So we're investing in '08 and '09 in Columbia in order to get that product offering where we want it to be, the cost structure where we want it to be, the production capability where we want it to be, and so that will be about two years of investment.

So those two things are worth about 160 basis points, so Cessna's '08 margins would be well up in the north of 18% range but for those two items.

Okay.

I'll dig into that a little more later.

But thanks a lot.

Our next question from the line of Rob Stallard with Banc of America.

Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Good morning.

Hey, Rob.

Lewis, you have a very strong view there on the strength of -- with the U.S.

economy being what it is, but I was perhaps a little bit surprised by your confidence on industrial revenues heading into 2008, that they can stay flat.

You mentioned that Kautex is tied to the automotive world.

Can you give us a little bit more flavor of how you've come to that forecast of flat revenues in '08?

Yes, for industrial?

Yes.

Well, we try to -- we understand the automotive market, and we know which models we're on, so it makes it a little bit easier for us to estimate the Kautex numbers because it's not just auto industry -- it is, but it's not just that.

If you're on the wrong model, even in an up year, you could be having a down revenues yourself.

So I'd say Kautex is probably pretty doggone well understood.

Non-res Construction so far is still supporting the Greenlee numbers, although that's not a huge contributor to our overall revenue forecast, but they are a contributor.

You've got Fluid & Power with oil and gas very strong.

We did a big field reduction of inventory at Jacobsen so that really helps us going into '08, so we don't have to bleed the field down.

The new golf cart that E-Z-Go, should sell well into the market and we don't really have a strong new golf course opening number out there in '08.

So we feel pretty good about that.

Geez, what did I miss there?

We think we've reflected the environment we're seeing.

Truthfully, it's hard to predict what the U.S.

economy is going to do, we try to do the best we could in taking a negative approach in Industrial so make sure we didn't overstate ourselves.

And linked into that, Ted you mentioned that charge-offs in finance have been very good.

Your forecast for '08, does that imply a more historical charge-off rate?

We had an abnormally low rate, very, very strong performance in 2007, so we're expecting it to tick up a little bit in '08, but still be at a very good level.

The real drivers around the finance business are, we're seeing a little bit slower growth rates in a number of our businesses, primarily in distribution-finance, which has been our fastest growing business but has a lot of consumer durables, so we're actually seeing some declines in manufactured housing and marine growth but a little bit slower in most of the rest of the businesses.

So still growing overall but a little bit slower.

The main impact on us has been this indices mismatch between prime and LIBOR.

It hasn't been credit losses, growth is a little bit slower but we're still getting growth.

It's really been this margin compression issue that cost us about 2.5 million in the third quarter, cost us 7.5 million last year -- quarter, in fourth quarter, it's going to cost us about 3 million in the first quarter, and then we have about a million and a half bad news baked into the plan for the balance of the year quarter-by-quarter, which things, knock on wood, stay like they did the last two or three days, it could be a little bit of upside to us.

So we've got a fairly conservative forecast out there based on what these rates were looking like when we put this plan together, and as of the last week, they're looking very positive again.

But, that's fooled us a little bit in our early fourth quarter as well, so we'll hold on to see what happens.

That's great, thanks, Ted.

Just one other detail on that, Rob, by the way.

Lewis mentioned Greenlee and the strong growth we've had in the past, we've had three years in a row of double-digit growth at Greenlee.

When we put our outlook together for next year, we dropped it down into a low single-digit area, just to give you an idea of the kind of granularity that we're looking at there.

So a flat year at Industrial is certainly in the cards unless things get considerably worse than where we are now.

Yeah, great.

Thank you.

And our next question from the line of David Bleustein with UBS.

Please go ahead.

Good morning.

Quick question, of the 500, Lewis you mentioned a bunch coming from international, is that similar to your shipment mix?

Oh, yes, it is.

Right.

Our delivery mix is about the same as our order mix, correct.

It's been climbing up, it's gone from international 30 back in probably the start of the decade, now it's well over 50.

In fact, the order in-take, I think, forecasted to be about 60% up.

We did a little over 50% international, both order and delivery this year, we think the order in-take will be about 60% international for '08.

Okay.

And what years are these planes being booked for and are there any delivery slots at all left for '08 and what does '09 look like?

There's nothing left for '08, there are a few models that are available in the last half of '09.

So most of what we're selling -- and actually, most of those that are available in '09 are already spoken for, they're just not technically signed up, they've got customers' names on them.

So we're really booking 2010 right now.

Basically, all products, other than new models like the CJ4 are available in 2010.

Right now, in '09, the only two models available are a few on the CJ1+ and the encore plus, and as Ted said, they're really spoken for for the most part with an order under negotiation.

And with respect to Mustang, we're out into 2010 now.

Terrific.

And then the last question, if you have cancellations in your '08 and '09 order books, do you have customers looking to move forward?

Absolutely.

Dying to.

That's all I needed.

Thank you.

And our next question from the line of Jeff Sprague with Citigroup.

Please go ahead.

Thank you, good morning.

Hey, Jeff.

Can you give me a sense of the big picture on the LCC, how you think about the business case, whether you're looking at it on an internal rate of return or discounted cash flow basis, but kind of the breakeven volume case for the airplane?

Well, I'll start on that one.

We treated this LCC no different than any other major capital investment we have to make, or decide to make.

So we look at it on several different fronts.

Intrinsic value is the primary one.

IRR is right in there beside it.

Return on invested capital, we risk-adjust it based on pricing, volumes, et cetera.

We even forecast to be conservative some type of downturn in the economy during the development cycle so we don't have our head in the sand there.

And I think the amazing fact here is, I came to Textron in '92 and except for a very small hiccup in the launch of the Citation 10, which was primarily due to the fact we'd never done a total fly-by-wire aircraft, it was our first one, and coming out of the car business, I can tell you there's some phantom circuits that exist that you can't really wrestle to the ground until you've built a few of those.

So other than the Citation 10, which is a minor, minor deal, I probably shouldn't even have brought it up, we just haven't missed on any ship we've decided to do from when we started on a piece of paper to when we delivered it to the customer.

As I talked about the Mustang, that's the latest example.

And I think that's because we have done so many of them, God, we've done I don't know how many new ships since we began making jets in the early '70s.

So our cycles of learning on new aircraft are very high.

And our understanding of the market's very high and our step-up capacity for our customers is unusually high at somewhere between well, roughly two-thirds, I might say 70% but certainly two-thirds.

So those factors allow you to be pretty accurate as it relates to what the pricing ought to be and in turn, what kind of volume you should expect.

We know what the customers are doing, not many secrets in this business -- I'm sorry, not customers, we know what the competitors are doing, and so based on all those facts we, our board approved that for us yesterday and we're ready to go.

Can you give us a sense though in terms of units what the business case would be built upon?

We expect to sell, let's just say, hundreds of units.

I don't know that we really want to give that number out.

Not yet.

We expect to sell hundreds of units over the course of a decade or so.

One other fact that we looked at just to make sure that our historical record would support any estimate, and that is I don't think there's been a jet, certainly in the '90s, since I came here, there's not been a jet that was launched that had a forecasted delivery quantity that hasn't far exceeded the delivery quantity or the profits.

So we think we can launch it on time.

We have a track record to keep our costs in line.

We understand how to launch a ship successfully, so we don't -- if you try to produce too many right up front, you can get in trouble but you've got to satisfy market demand, careful balance.

And we haven't taken any -- we've really created a nifty airplane but we really have been, we're very shrewd about how we did it, I think Jack and his team have done just a wonderful job on this aircraft.

We're going to really spend a lot of time on it on February 6, if you can be there, or on the phone or in person, you'll find out a lot about it.

Can you clarify the R&D, I think the 20 million in '07 is the absolute but the 53 million in '08 is the delta?

No, the 53 is an absolute.

And the 120 in 2010 is an absolute?

Yes.

See, Jeff, one of the things that we did, was why we took our time on this, is we wanted to make sure we knew what variance we wanted to produce and what it was we were designing.

You're probably remembering, because we were using an estimate that could be as much as 85.

That's why it's tempting to add the 20 to the 53, but the 53 is the absolute number.

I got it.

Thank you.

Our next question from the line of Ronald Epstein with Merrill Lynch.

Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys.

Turning that table a little bit, looking at Bell in a little more detail, that 30 million that you guys took on H-1, what was that for again?

Pardon me?

The $30 million charge on H-1, what's that related to?

That is related to the fact that we made a decision a year plus ago with our customer that on the Yankee we would no longer try to remand the cabin on that product and that we would build new cabins, in fact, build that entire helicopter as a new-built helicopter.

We went outside to a source to procure those cabins, and for a number of reasons I don't want to get into, the cost is higher than what was expected.

We're having some discussions with the customer and with the supplier about how we're going to allocate all that additional cost among the three of us.

Those discussions are not resolved.

So we chose, in the quarter, to take a charge for the next eight upcoming lot, where we would absorb potentially some of that cost in transition to getting into the new-built helicopter.

So Ted, when do you expect it to make money?

We expect it to start making money after the fifth lot, which I don't have the delivery schedule here, well maybe I do.

About 2010 we would start delivering profitable units.

Okay.

Okay.

And then just one more Bell question if I can.

On Armed Reconnaissance, looking through some of the DOD documents, it looks like the price of the aircraft per ship set potentially has gone up a lot.

Does that worry you guys?

Because going from, I guess it was about a $5 million airplane to something close to I don't know 12 or 13, it's creeping up towards the price of a black hawk.

Does that worry you guys or not?

How should we think about that.

It's gone up from 5.5 million to, call it round numbers, approaching 10.

And we believe and the customer believes that is still the best economic deal out there.

I mean, it's certainly not something any of us loves but it is what it is to get the performance that the customer wants to get.

Okay.

And then just one last question, on the LCC, if you guys can answer this, from a CapEx perspective, I mean, are you guys going to do the bricks and mortar to build, it's a big cabin, a lot of tooling, you're probably going to need more space, or is that something you're thinking about outsourcing?

We're doing this a little bit differently in that we are going to be buying more of the work outside than what we have traditionally done.

So we'll limit that.

But it's -- if you think about it, the total development program is about $780 million.

CapEx is just a little over 100 of that.

It's mostly development cost.

Okay.

Great.

Thank you very much.

And our next question from the line of Steve Tusa with JP Morgan.

Please go ahead.

Hi good morning.

Just wrestling a little bit with this Cessna margin here, if I look back at '07 and the previous few years, clearly incremental's been pretty good, even if we strip out the incremental R&D, you're looking at a low 30s% incremental margin on revenue growth in 2007, and if we do the same analysis for this year, your 13 points below that, so you're at around 19%.

So that's adjusting for the R&D issue.

Is the difference there that big difference that we see in that number, I mean, is that really other investment?

And I don't know, I don't even know what this name of the company is that you acquired, Columbia again?

Yes.

So that is the difference?

Well Columbia's 70 basis points, the LCC is 90 basis points, other growth in R&D beyond LCC, I don't have that calculation, that's probably 15 more.

I'm adjusting for all the entire R&D increase so that you guys just gave us the pure R&D numbers.

It just seems like it just seems like a pretty significant degradation in the core incremental margin of the business.

I guess the question is, there's nothing unusual going on outside of these items you've highlighted that would impact the number that much?

Depreciation expense would be the next big one.

This is similar to the situation we have at Bell.

We went for several years where big steps up in volume were eating up available capacity, and coming very, very inexpensively.

And as we've now passed that point, we're having to put quite a bit more CapEx into this business in order to grow it.

Great return, by the way.

But that is driving our depreciation expense up quite considerably.

Okay.

And then just the follow-up on that, I mean, you talk about wanting to be a premier multi-industry company and when I look out at the guidance that a lot of these premier companies have given over the last month, even in the face of this environment, you're looking at certainly north of 10% EPS growth, 10 to 15, 15 is kind of the bar.

And who knows if they get there, but for now they're saying that that is the right bar, some are putting up 20% EPS growth.

You guys have 7% at the midpoint of the range, and I understand that there's investment and all this other stuff.

All these other companies are also investing heavily in their businesses and doing acquisitions and things like that.

Do you think that the 7% midpoint of the range is enough to get you to premier status because you guys have used that word quite a bit over the course of this conference call?

You have an interesting definition of premier.

How many of them did 32% last year?

Well, I mean, you guys are talking about a journey here so it's --

That's exactly right, we're talking about a journey, and we would have 14% growth but for LCC and the two acquisitions, and that's the way life works.

This is not a perfect linear progression but we'll work hard to get to a number that's very strong as we can make it in '08, but we're making investments that we believe are increasing shareholder value, which is really an intrinsic value, which is our ultimate yardstick of what premier looks like.

Right, I just think that the revenue growth you guys have put up over the last couple years, you've never had or you very seldomly had an EPS growth rate that's below your revenue growth rate.

So this year just seems a little bit unusual on that.

We wouldn't have but for those three items.

Right.

Okay, thanks a lot.

Hey, just -- let me make two more closing comments real quick, one on that subject right there.

The year's not over yet but we try to give you the best guidance we can, but we don't quit here.

We've got 11 more months to run.

And I want to go back on the Citation 10 a minute because I probably shortcut that answer just a little bit on flight control systems.

Remember, that's the only aircraft save the Concord, which is no longer flying, that flies at MACH 0.92 or higher.

So if you said technically what was going on there, it was more related to the fairly complicated flight control system than actually fly-by-wire although they kind of are intertwined there.

So I just wanted to clear that up.

Let me do one other thing, too, because I finally found my missing piece of paper, and I know this is of interest to all of you.

The LCC current development cost estimates right now for '08, $53 million, $0.14 a share, for '09, $97 million, $0.26 a share, for 2010, $120 million, $0.32 a share, and that ought to be at about the peak rate.

Then it should flatten out, start to drift downward thereafter.

All right.

Operator, do we have -- if we don't have any other calls in queue, this will conclude our call and we thank everybody for joining us today.

Thank you.

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