德州儀器 (TXN) 2001 Q3 法說會逐字稿

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL

德州儀器第三季財報電話會議

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to your Texas Instruments third quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all lines have been placed on a listen-only mode, and we will be taking your questions and comments following the presentation. If at any point you would like to register to ask a question, please press the numbers '1' followed by '4' on your touchtone telephone at any time throughout the conference. It is now my pleasure to hand the call over to your host, Mr. Ron Slaymaker. Sir you may begin.

下午好，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加德州儀器 (TI) 第三季財報電話會議。目前，所有線路均已設定為僅聽模式，我們將在演示後回答您的問題和評論。如果您在任何時候想註冊提問，請在會議期間隨時在按鍵式電話上按數字“1”，然後按“4”。現在我很高興將電話轉交給房東 Ron Slaymaker 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our third quarter earnings conference call. With me today are Bill Aylesworth, TI's Chief Financial Officer, and Terry West, TI's Senior VP responsible for Communications and Investor Relations. In a moment, Bill will provide his perspective on TI's results for the quarter. This call will last one hour. For any of you that have missed the release, you can find it on our website at www.ti.com/ir. This call is also being broadcast live over TI's website. A replay will be available through the web. Before I turn it over to Bill, let me remind you that this call will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings, for a complete description. Our call today will focus on pro forma results that are intended to present the company's operating results for the periods discussed, and therefore, exclude acquisition related costs and intangibles, as well as other items. A detailed listing of the exclusions from pro forma results is located in the footnotes to our income statement in the earnings news release. After Bill reviews the quarter, we will open the lines for your question. Bill?

下午好，感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有 TI 財務長 Bill Aylesworth 和 TI 負責通訊和投資者關係的高級副總裁 Terry West。稍後，Bill 將發表他對 TI 本季業績的看法。這次通話將持續一小時。如果您錯過了該版本，您可以在我們的網站 www.ti.com/ir 上找到它。此次電話會議也透過 TI 網站進行現場直播。重播將透過網路進行。在將其交給 Bill 之前，請允許我提醒您，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及可能導致 TI 業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的安全港聲明以及 TI 最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲取完整的說明。我們今天的電話會議將重點關注預計業績，旨在展示公司在討論期間的經營業績，因此不包括收購相關成本和無形資產以及其他項目。預計結果中排除的詳細清單位於收益新聞稿中損益表的註腳中。比爾審查該季度後，我們將打開您的問題線。帳單？

Thank you Ron, and good afternoon everyone. In the third quarter, we basically achieved what we expected back in July. We continue to see signs of stabilization in our semiconductor business with sequential declines in orders and revenues moderating, but we are still faced with weak electronic and equipment markets, and excess customer inventories in some sectors. In my comments today, I will begin by reviewing our performance in the third quarter, and then talk about our outlook for the fourth quarter. Overall, our third quarter revenue declined to 1,849 million, a 41% decline from last year, and a 9% drop from the second quarter. We had expected our revenue to decline in the range of 10% to 15%, so we ended up slightly better than expected. The decline was driven by a broad range of our semiconductor products, with the exception of DSP, which grew sequentially. There was seasonal weakness in our Sensors & Controls business, but Educational & Productivity Solutions business exhibited normal seasonal growth in the quarter as a result of back-to-school sales of educational products. In Semiconductor, our revenue declined 12% sequentially. Analog revenue declined 16%, while DSP grew 10%. Year-to-date Analog is about 40% of our Semiconductor revenue, and DSP is about 25%. Orders in DSP were up 11% sequentially, leading to our second consecutive quarter with a DSP book-to-bill over 1. Although total Analog orders declined, orders in high-performance Analog grew 10% over the second quarter. Other semiconductor revenue declined.

謝謝羅恩，大家下午好。第三季度，我們基本上達到了7月的預期。我們繼續看到半導體業務穩定的跡象，訂單和收入連續下降，但我們仍然面臨電子和設備市場疲軟以及某些行業客戶庫存過剩的問題。在今天的評論中，我將首先回顧我們第三季度的業績，然後談談我們對第四季度的展望。整體而言，我們第三季營收下降至18.49億美元，比去年下降41%，比第二季下降9%。我們原本預期收入會下降 10% 到 15%，所以最終結果比預期好一些。下降的原因是我們廣泛的半導體產品，但 DSP 除外，該產品連續成長。我們的感測器和控制業務出現季節性疲軟，但由於教育產品返校銷售，教育和生產力解決方案業務在本季度呈現出正常的季節性成長。在半導體領域，我們的收入環比下降了 12%。模擬收入下降 16%，而 DSP 收入成長 10%。今年迄今為止，模擬業務約占我們半導體收入的 40%，DSP 約佔 25%。 DSP 訂單較上季增加 11%，導致我們的 DSP 訂單出貨比連續第二季超過 1。儘管模擬訂單總數有所下降，但高效能模擬訂單比第二季增加了 10%。其他半導體收入下降。

By end-equipment market, wireless revenue grew 16% sequentially. Year-to-date wireless was about 20% of Semiconductor revenue. Wireless also achieved a positive book-to-bill in the quarter. GPRS deployment continues with several customers now in production of GPRS phones based on TI product. Revenue from our high-performance Analog and catalog DSP products declined 16% sequentially. Year-to-date, these products represent about 15% of our Semiconductor revenue. Orders grew sequentially for both high-performance Analog and catalog DSP for the first time in a year. Although it continues to increase, this book-to-bill ratio remains below 1. In this area, we are seeing growth in consumer equipments such as DVD and digital still camera, while wireline communications, including optical networking, continues to be depressed with excess inventory, and industrial markets including medical imaging and instrumentation are stable. Broadband communications revenue declined 52%, compared to the second quarter. While the level decline was disappointing, we had expected this revenue to pull back as the DSL customers that drove revenue strongly for us in the first half needed to digest inventory. Even so, this revenue was 8% above the year ago level. Our enthusiasm for this market continues unabated, and our position in the market continues to improve. The deployment of broadband communications to residential homes via cable modems and DSL, combined with home networking, represents one of our most attractive growth opportunities over the next few years.

按終端設備市場劃分，無線收入較上季成長16%。今年迄今，無線業務約佔半導體收入的 20%。無線業務在本季度也實現了積極的訂單出貨比。 GPRS 部署仍在繼續，一些客戶目前正在生產基於 TI 產品的 GPRS 手機。我們的高性能模擬和目錄 DSP 產品的收入環比下降了 16%。今年迄今為止，這些產品約占我們半導體收入的 15%。高性能模擬和目錄 DSP 的訂單一年來首次連續增長。雖然訂單出貨比持續成長，但仍低於 1。在這一領域，我們看到 DVD 和數位相機等消費設備的成長，而包括光網路在內的有線通訊則因過剩而持續低迷。庫存方面，醫學影像、儀器等工業市場穩定。與第二季相比，寬頻通訊收入下降了 52%。雖然水平下降令人失望，但我們預計這一收入將會回落，因為上半年為我們帶來強勁收入的 DSL 客戶需要消化庫存。即便如此，這項收入仍比去年同期成長 8%。我們對這個市場的熱情有增無減，我們的市場地位也不斷提高。透過電纜調變解調器和 DSL 向住宅家庭部署寬頻通信，再加上家庭網絡，是我們未來幾年最具吸引力的成長機會之一。

A couple of broadband highlights from the quarter. We announced our first wireless networking products for the 802.11b standard in June. We now have orders in hand and are ready to ramp in the volume production during the fourth quarter. We also moved into the cable modem technology lead, as we are the only chip supplier with the DOCSIS 1.1 solution that has been certified by CableLabs. Our certified reference design including chips and software will allow customers to quickly get into production with this new standard that aligns with several other TI broadband strengths, such as home networking and voiceover packet telephony. Outside Semiconductor, our Sensors & Controls revenue of 222 million in the quarter was down 9% compared to the year ago quarter and down 14% sequentially. Overall, this business is experiencing broad based weakness across its markets, combined with seasonal pressure in the sequential comparison. Despite the revenue weakness, operating margin was 2.7 points up from the year ago quarter, and unchanged from the second quarter, as this management team continues to increase manufacturing efficiencies. Educational & Productivity Solutions revenue of $179 million increased 38% sequentially and 2% over the year ago period. The sequential increase was the result of the back-to-school seasonality for educational products. Operating margin for this business was 37.3%, a 1-point increase over last year and 8 points above the second quarter.

本季度的幾個寬頻亮點。我們於 6 月發布了首款符合 802.11b 標準的無線網路產品。我們現在手頭上有訂單，並準備在第四季度提高產量。我們也進入了電纜調變解調器技術領先地位，因為我們是唯一擁有經 CableLabs 認證的 DOCSIS 1.1 解決方案的晶片供應商。我們經過認證的參考設計（包括晶片和軟體）將使客戶能夠利用這一新標準快速投入生產，該標準與家庭網路和語音分組電話等其他 TI 寬頻優勢相一致。除半導體之外，本季我們的感測器與控制收入為 2.22 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 9%，比上一季下降 14%。總體而言，該業務在整個市場中都面臨著廣泛的疲軟，加上環比中的季節性壓力。儘管收入疲軟，營業利潤率仍比去年同期增長 2.7 個百分點，與第二季度持平，因為該管理團隊繼續提高製造效率。教育和生產力解決方案營收為 1.79 億美元，比上一季成長 38%，比去年同期成長 2%。環比增長是教育產品返校季節性的結果。該業務的營業利潤率為37.3%，比去年增加1個百分點，比第二季增加8個百分點。

For the company, TI's operating margin declined 8.7 points sequentially to a negative 8.2% of revenue. Gross margin accounted for essentially all of this decline, reflecting the combination of our fixed manufacturing costs and low utilization levels. Low utilization resulted from lower revenue, as well as inventory reduction. Our $182 million reduction of inventory was about the same level as the sequential drop in revenue this quarter. We believe getting inventory in line now is the right strategy and will pay dividends as growth returns, even though it costs us some near-term margin. Below the line costs were reduced by $59 million or 9%, matching the 9% drop in revenue. Non-operating income and expense netted out to a gain of $22 million, basically in line with our guidance of $20 million. This compares to a $112 million in the year ago period and $42 million in the second quarter, primarily reflecting lower interest income, as well as lower investment gains, compared to the year ago period. Total loss was $57 million for a loss per share of ¢3 for the quarter. On the balance sheet, inventories were reduced by $182 million in the quarter, decreasing days of inventory from 72 at the end of the second quarter to 58 at the end of the third quarter. Accounts receivable were also lower. Cash flow from operations was $334 million. With capital expenditures of $312 million in the quarter, free cash flow was $22 million. We also purchased a $152 million of our stock in the quarter.

對該公司來說，TI 的營業利潤率比上一季下降了 8.7 個百分點，佔營收的比例為負 8.2%。毛利率基本上佔所有下降的原因，反映了我們固定的製造成本和低利用率水準的組合。利用率低是由於收入減少以及庫存減少造成的。我們減少了 1.82 億美元的庫存，與本季營收季減的水準大致相同。我們認為，現在調整庫存是正確的策略，並將隨著成長回報帶來紅利，儘管這會損失一些短期利潤。線下成本減少了 5,900 萬美元，即 9%，與收入下降 9% 相符。非營業收入和支出淨收益為 2,200 萬美元，基本上符合我們 2,000 萬美元的指引。相較之下，去年同期為 1.12 億美元，第二季為 4,200 萬美元，主要反映了與去年同期相比，利息收入和投資收益較低。本季每股虧損 3 歐元，總虧損 5,700 萬美元。在資產負債表上，本季庫存減少了 1.82 億美元，庫存天數從第二季末的 72 天減少到第三季末的 58 天。應收帳款也有所下降。營運現金流為 3.34 億美元。本季資本支出為 3.12 億美元，自由現金流為 2,200 萬美元。我們還在本季購買了價值 1.52 億美元的股票。

Orders in the quarter were $1,638 million, down 4% from the second quarter. Semiconductor orders were about even with the second quarter at $1,308 million. After the first quarters 38% sequential decline in semiconductor orders and last quarters 12% decline, we believe having orders flat sequentially is evidence of stabilization in the market environment. As things stand now, it appears that the third quarter will mark the bottom for our semiconductor orders. Book-to-bill for the company was 0.89 in the quarter, compared to 0.84 last quarter. Our semiconductor book-to-bill was 0.90 compared to 0.80 in the second quarter and 0.69 in the first quarter. Looking into the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to decline sequentially about 10%. The decline will be driven mostly by the normal seasonal decline in our Educational and Productivity Solutions business, associated with the end of the back-to-school season, along with continued weakness in the semiconductor market. Semiconductor revenue should decline about 5%, as continued growth in DSP is more than offset by declines in other products. We expect revenue in all 3 our key end markets, wireless, catalog products, and broadband, to be flat to up sequentially. Sensors and Controls revenue should be about even with the third quarter. Educational and Productivity Solutions will decline by about $110 million or 60%, which is the normal seasonal pattern for this business in the fourth quarter.

該季度訂單金額為 16.38 億美元，較第二季下降 4%。半導體訂單與第二季持平，為 13.08 億美元。第一季半導體訂單季減 38%，上季季減 12%，我們認為訂單季減是市場環境趨於穩定的證據。從目前的情況來看，第三季似乎將標誌著我們的半導體訂單觸底。該公司本季的訂單出貨比為 0.89，而上季為 0.84。我們的半導體訂單出貨比為 0.90，而第二季為 0.80，第一季為 0.69。展望第四季度，我們預計營收將環比下降約 10%。這一下降主要是由於我們的教育和生產力解決方案業務的正常季節性下降（與返校季結束相關）以及半導體市場的持續疲軟。半導體收入應下降約 5%，因為 DSP 的持續成長被其他產品的下降所抵消。我們預期無線、目錄產品和寬頻這三個主要終端市場的營收將環比持平或上升。感測器和控制部門的收入應該與第三季持平。教育和生產力解決方案將減少約 1.1 億美元或 60%，這是該業務第四季的正常季節性模式。

A percentage impact of this seasonality on TI will be more significant this year due to the depressed levels of our Semiconductor revenue. Specifically, 6 points of our projected 10-point revenue decline will be a result of this seasonality. Last year, this same seasonal decline caused about 3 points of decline at the company level. We expect operating margins to decline by about 9 percentage points reflecting both the lower revenue level and further reductions in inventory. We expect non-operating income to decline by about $10 million compared to the third quarter. As a result, the pro forma loss per share should be about ¢6 greater. Our forecast for capital expenditures for the year remains at $1.8 billion. Our 2001 R&D forecast has been trimmed to $1.5 billion from our previous estimate of $1.6 billion. Our depreciation expense estimate now rounds up to $1.6 billion for the year compared to our earlier estimate of 1.5 billion. Depreciation will be up about 30% compared to last year. In summary, we are encouraged that we were able to deliver slightly better that what we expected in our July outlook. Similarly, we continue to be encouraged by the slowing of declines in revenue for our semiconductor business and the stabilization in semiconductor orders at second quarter levels. Our book-to-bill has continued to make solid progress toward 1, reflecting a bottoming process that is underway. In fact, we believe that the fourth quarter will set the floor for our semiconductor revenue. As we look into 2002, we believe that we can begin to return to a more typical quarterly sequentially growth pattern.

由於我們的半導體收入水準低迷，今年這種季節性對 TI 的影響將更加顯著。具體來說，我們預期收入下降 10 個百分點，其中 6 個百分點是由這種季節性因素造成的。去年，同樣的季節性下降導致公司層級下降了約 3 個百分點。我們預計營業利潤率將下降約 9 個百分點，反映出收入水準下降和庫存進一步減少。我們預計營業外收入較第三季下降約1,000萬美元。因此，預計每股虧損應增加約 6 英鎊。我們對今年資本支出的預測仍為 18 億美元。我們 2001 年的研發預測已從先前的 16 億美元預測下調至 15 億美元。我們對今年的折舊費用估計目前四捨五入為 16 億美元，而先前的估計為 15 億美元。與去年相比，折舊率將上漲約30%。總之，我們感到鼓舞的是，我們的業績略好於我們在 7 月展望中的預期。同樣，我們的半導體業務收入下降放緩以及第二季度半導體訂單水平的穩定繼續令我們感到鼓舞。我們的訂單出貨量繼續朝著 1 邁進，反映出正在觸底的過程。事實上，我們相信第四季將為我們的半導體收入奠定基礎。當我們展望 2002 年時，我們相信我們可以開始回到更典型的季度環比成長模式。

With that, let me turn it back to Ron.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回給羅恩。

Thank you Bill. At this time, I will ask the operator to open the lines up for your questions. Operator?

謝謝比爾。此時，我會請接線生開通電話，解答您的問題。操作員？

Thank you sir. The floor is now open for questions. If you do have a question or comment, please press '1' and then '4' on your touchtone telephone. Once again, that is '1' and then '4' on your touchtone telephone to register to ask a question. Our first question is coming from Scott Randall of SoundView.

謝謝你，先生。現在可以提問。如果您確實有問題或意見，請按按鍵式電話上的“1”，然後按“4”。再次，在按鍵式電話上按“1”，然後按“4”即可註冊提問。我們的第一個問題來自 SoundView 的 Scott Randall。

Good afternoon. Bill, I wonder if you could detail a little bit more on the operating expense side relative to December's expectations, and I have a followup.

午安. Bill，我想知道您是否可以詳細介紹相對於 12 月預期的營運費用方面，我有一個後續行動。

Yes, I would say we will be pretty flattish on operating expense below GPM, Scott, in the fourth quarter, compared to the third. We have seen the results now of the actions we have taken earlier in the year and we took during the second quarter that resulted in declines in our R&D levels and our SG&A level in the third quarter compared to the second. So I would say flattish third to fourth.

是的，我想說，與第三季相比，第四季的營運費用將相當平穩，低於史考特的毛利率。我們現在已經看到了今年早些時候和第二季度採取的行動的結果，這些行動導致第三季度的研發水平和銷售、管理及行政費用水平與第二季度相比有所下降。所以我會說第三到第四平坦。

Okay. And secondly, curious on the growth in the DSP segment, up 10% I think you said. Where do you point that in terms of what is driving that?

好的。其次，對 DSP 領域的成長感到好奇，我想你說過成長了 10%。您認為推動此趨勢的因素在哪裡？

Certainly, wireless was the primary growth driver there, Scott, with our wireless revenues overall up 16%, and so that was the single biggest part of it. Other applications and some of the industrial and other markets, but wireless was the primary growth driver for DSP in the third quarter.

當然，無線是那裡的主要成長動力，Scott，我們的無線收入整體成長了 16%，因此這是其中最大的部分。其他應用以及一些工業和其他市場，但無線是第三季 DSP 的主要成長動力。

Scott a couple that I can think of were digital still cameras were up for DSP, as well as hard disk drive.

Scott 我能想到的一些數位靜態相機是用於 DSP 的，還有硬碟。

Okay. Digital still cameras and hard disk drives, those are still a pretty small part of the business?

好的。數位相機和硬碟，這些仍然只是業務的一小部分？

Correct.

正確的。

Correct. Wireless was the biggest factor.

正確的。無線是最大的因素。

Okay. Last question I guess, scanning at the balance sheet, prepaid expenses were up pretty sharply looks like quarter-over-quarter?

好的。我想最後一個問題是，掃描資產負債表，預付費用似乎季度較上季大幅成長？

Yes, those reflect in effect prepaid taxes, Scott. They will collect back as with the results that we posted now and the fact that we have to make current tax payments. So we will be getting in effect tax refunds in the US, and those then will reduce that asset. So it is an effect of prepaid tax expense.

是的，這些實際上反映了預繳稅款，斯科特。他們將按照我們現在發布的結果以及我們必須繳納當前稅款的事實收回。因此，我們將在美國獲得有效的退稅，然後這些退稅將減少該資產。因此，這是預繳稅費的影響。

I get it, okay, thanks very much.

我明白了，好的，非常感謝。

Thank you Scott, next question please.

謝謝斯科特，請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Mark Edelstone of Morgan Stanley.

你們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬克‧艾德斯通。

Good afternoon guys, a couple of questions if I could. First one, what is the utilization rate right now of the manufacturing facilities in semis?

下午好，各位，如果可以的話，有幾個問題。第一，目前半成品生產設備的使用率是多少？

Mark, the utilization is somewhat under 50% at this point. On an average, I would say as usual, the newest lithography capacity is much, much tighter than that, but on average, something under 50%.

馬克，此時利用率略低於 50%。平均而言，我會像往常一樣說，最新的光刻產能比這要緊得多，但平均而言，低於 50%。

And then you have obviously done a great job bringing inventories down. What is the goal that you see here for the next quarter or so?

顯然，你們在降低庫存方面做得非常出色。您認為下個季度左右的目標是什麼？

Certainly it will depend on our revenue levels, but based on what we think is a floor in the fourth quarter for revenues in semiconductor and the prospect that we will need to bring inventories down some, third to fourth, I would think that would represent about a floor there as well for inventories. And of course, within that, we are maintaining appropriate inventories for our standard products so that we can have short lead times and there we can have inventories of diestock or it is actually held in wafer form usually. It is in the custom areas that it is really not appropriate to hold inventories if we don't have backlog of planning factors from our customers. So as soon as we get more of those orders from our customers, we will start to build out work-in-process. So I would think that the fourth quarter inventories that we'll get to ought to be about the floor there, consistent with the belief that that's our floor for revenues.

當然，這將取決於我們的收入水平，但根據我們認為第四季度半導體收入的下限以及我們需要將庫存降低一些（第三到第四季度）的前景，我認為這將代表大約那裡還有一個樓層用於庫存。當然，在此範圍內，我們為我們的標準產品保持適當的庫存，以便我們可以縮短交貨時間，並且我們可以擁有模具庫存，或者實際上通常以晶圓形式持有。在客製化領域，如果我們沒有客戶積壓的規劃因素，那麼持有庫存確實不合適。因此，一旦我們從客戶那裡獲得更多訂單，我們就會開始生產在製品。因此，我認為我們將獲得的第四季度庫存應該約為該下限，這與我們的收入下限一致。

So fair to say then that utilization rates should begin to improve in Q1?

那麼可以公平地說，利用率應該在第一季開始提高嗎？

Yes, Q1, Mark, for us is based on the seasonality of the industry and that as it applies to us is, of course, on average pretty flattish to fourth quarter, and so from that point of view, utilization shouldn't get any worse and should begin to improve.

是的，馬克，對我們來說，第一季是基於行業的季節性，當然，對我們來說，第四季度的平均水平相當平穩，因此從這個角度來看，利用率不應該有任何變化。更糟，應該開始改善。

Just one last question if I could. You guys obviously did a lot this year for re-structuring to bring the breakeven down, but with sales now continuing to head to a lower level, are there plans to have additional restructuring efforts?

如果可以的話，我只想問最後一個問題。今年，你們顯然在重組方面做了很多工作，以降低盈虧平衡，但隨著銷售額現在繼續下降，是否有計劃進行額外的重組工作？

No specific plans there, Mark, because we think we have done the right things in terms of the involuntary reductions that we had in the second quarter of this year and the site closures that we have announced and our underway, one of which is now complete in Santa Cruz, the other which will be complete in the first half of the next year in Merrimack, New Hampshire. We will maintain very stringent cost controls and will continue to look across all of our operations for potential actions, but we don't have any others identified or anticipated at this time.

馬克，沒有具體計劃，因為我們認為，就今年第二季度的非自願削減以及我們已經宣布和正在進行的站點關閉而言，我們做了正確的事情，其中​​一項現已完成另一個位於聖克魯斯，將於明年上半年在新罕布夏州梅里馬克完工。我們將保持非常嚴格的成本控制，並將繼續在我們的所有業務中尋找潛在的行動，但目前我們沒有確定或預期任何其他行動。

Okay Mark, thank you for questions. Next question please operator.

好的，馬克，謝謝你的提問。下一個問題請接線生。

Your next question is coming from Drew Peck of SG Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 SG Cowen 的 Drew Peck。

Hi, good afternoon, two I hope quick question. Bill what kind of economic assumptions are you making when you talk about your confidence level that you are going to see a normal seasonal pattern recovery in 2002? Is that qualified in any way by the economic outlook, and do you guys have a viewpoint?

嗨，下午好，兩位我希望能快速提問。 Bill 當您談論您對 2002 年將看到正常季節性模式復甦的信心水平時，您做出了什麼樣的經濟假設？這是否符合經濟前景，你們有什麼觀點嗎？

We don't have a unique viewpoint on economic situation, Drew. Our views are conditioned primarily on more of a micro basis, i.e., that are wireless sector has basically completed its inventory cycle and that our product delivery there now will much more closely match our customers' business in wireless. And in the wireline sector, the fact that our customers have not yet completed inventory liquidation there but have continued to make progress on it, so that by around the end of the year, we would think that would be in much better shape. And in PC, the fact that there's never been a big inventory issue that relates to our components, although there's been a weak market, so that would lead us to the assumption, at this point, that we would see and be subject to kind of a normal seasonality over the next couple of quarters.

德魯，我們對經濟狀況沒有獨特的觀點。我們的觀點主要取決於更微觀的基礎，即無線部門已基本完成其庫存週期，我們現在的產品交付將更加緊密地匹配客戶的無線業務。在有線領域，我們的客戶尚未完成庫存清理，但仍在繼續取得進展，因此到今年年底左右，我們認為情況會好得多。在個人電腦方面，事實上，儘管市場疲軟，但從未出現過與我們的組件相關的大庫存問題，因此這將導致我們在這一點上做出這樣的假設：我們將看到並受到某種程度的影響。接下來幾季的正常季節性。

Okay, and on the wireless side, the improvement that you're seeing in handset, are you certain that that represents end-user demand or is it simply a GPRS build out or is it inventory replenishment? Do you have any insight into that?

好的，在無線方面，您在手機中看到的改進，您確定這代表了最終用戶的需求，還是只是 GPRS 的擴建，還是庫存的補充？您對此有什麼見解嗎？

Well, we are pretty sure the inventory liquidation has been completed, and we really, since that inventory liquidation is really just being completed, we don't see any particular indication at this point that our customers are beginning to build inventory again. It really is a combination of a couple of things I think. We have seen some near-term upsides for current generation chips, for current generation phones in the US, which we think relates certainly in part to the September 11th events and to the increased demand or increased realization of the importance of cell phones for personal security, personal communications, and so on; and secondly, the fact that our customers are proceeding with GPS rollouts and they will have product in the market in the fourth quarter. So it's both of those effects, and I guess, the third effect overall, Drew, would be that this past year our customers have in effect drawn down something like 18 million units of chipsets compared to what they had built in excess a year ago. And so that really is complete, and we should be on a, so that even a normal consumption basis there would mean growth for us relative to 2001.

好吧，我們非常確定庫存清算已經完成，而且我們真的，因為庫存清算確實剛剛完成，所以我們目前沒有看到任何具體跡象表明我們的客戶開始再次建立庫存。我認為這確實是幾件事的結合。我們已經看到了美國當前一代晶片和當前一代手機的一些近期優勢，我們認為這肯定部分與 9 月 11 日事件以及需求增加或對手機對個人安全重要性的認識增加有關、個人通訊等；其次，我們的客戶正在繼續推出 GPS，他們的產品將在第四季推出市場。所以這是這兩個影響，我想，德魯，總體上的第三個影響是，與一年前多餘的晶片組相比，我們的客戶在過去的一年實際上消耗了大約1800 萬個晶片組。所以這確實已經完成，我們應該這樣做，這樣即使是正常的消費基礎也意味著我們相對於 2001 年的成長。

Very good. Okay, thanks.

非常好。好的謝謝。

Thank you Drew. Next question please.

謝謝德魯。請下一個問題。

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Doug Lee of Banc of America Securities.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Doug Lee。

Good afternoon. Bill just a followup to an earlier question. If we take an assumption that you can have flat revenues into the first quarter of next year, given that a lot of the operating expense gains have already been made and utilization is flattish, maybe up a little, should we expect under a flat revenue scenario that the operating loss will be similar to what we expect to see in the fourth quarter?

午安.比爾只是之前問題的後續。如果我們假設您可以在明年第一季實現收入持平，因為已經實現了大量營運費用收益並且利用率持平，甚至可能會上升一點，那麼我們是否應該預期在收入持平的情況下營運虧損將與我們預期第四季的情況相似嗎？

It's probably a little early to try to be very specific about that. We will see, I think, overall as we begin to plan our capital expenditures for next year that our depreciation has a normal somewhat step down in the first quarter compared to fourth, and on average next year, we will probably be about the same as this year. So that depreciation which increased 30%, 2001 versus 2000, is more likely to be pretty flattish 2001 to 2002, so that on the fixed cost side would be the additional input there.

現在嘗試具體說明這一點可能還為時過早。我認為，總體而言，當我們開始計劃明年的資本支出時，我們的折舊與第四季度相比，第一季的折舊率會正常下降，平均明年，我們的折舊率可能與今年。因此，2001 年與 2000 年相比，折舊增加了 30%，2001 年至 2002 年更有可能相當平穩，因此固定成本方面將有額外的投入。

Fine. Okay. So you might see a little improvement. Okay, great. And then just last thing, do you have a budget yet on capex for '02?

美好的。好的。所以你可能會看到一些改進。好的，太好了。最後一件事是，您對 02 年的資本支出有預算嗎？

We don't really have a firm budget yet Doug, but I think what we are looking at is that our annual rates of capital expenditures for next year that approximate the second half of this year annualize and second half of this year will be around $600 million for the half probably is a lot closer or is a reasonable first approximation to what our capex would be next year, which would be well under our depreciation of somewhere between 1.5 billion and 1.6 billion.

道格，我們還沒有真正確定的預算，但我認為我們正在考慮的是，我們明年的資本支出年率（大約今年下半年）按年計算，今年下半年將約為 600 美元一半的資本支出可能更接近或是我們明年資本支出的合理初步近似值，這將遠低於我們15 億至16 億之間的折舊。

Understood. Thank you very much.

明白了。非常感謝。

Thank you Doug. Next question please.

謝謝你，道格。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Joseph Osha of Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美林證券的約瑟夫·奧沙。

Hello gentlemen.

先生們好。

Hi Joe.

嗨喬。

Hi, two questions. First, if you look at the fourth quarter, and just to clarify, obviously DSP up, you said Analog down, this would tend to imply that you are looking for your non-DSP, non-Analog proportion of the business to be down more substantially. Can you comment a little bit on that? And then I have a followup.

你好，有兩個問題。首先，如果你看看第四季度，為了澄清一下，顯然 DSP 上升，你說模擬下降，這往往意味著你正在尋找非 DSP、非模擬業務比例下降更多基本上。你能對此發表一點評論嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, Joe, that's a reasonable assumption and a reasonable view. Parts of our business like ASIC, for example which is heavily wireline communications oriented and still going through that inventory position, inventory liquidation, we would expect to be down sequentially. The microcontrollers that go into automotive would look to be down sequentially. The Analog that goes into some of the PC peripherals that have already been through their seasonal high for the year we would expect to have declines in the fourth quarter. So that's exactly how it should affect our mix. That's right.

是的，喬，這是一個合理的假設和合理的觀點。我們的部分業務，例如 ASIC，主要面向有線通信，並且仍在經歷庫存狀況、庫存清算，我們預計會依次下降。汽車領域的微控制器看起來會依序下降。一些 PC 週邊裝置的模擬量已經達到了今年的季節性高點，我們預計第四季會出現下降。這正是它應該如何影響我們的混音。這是正確的。

Can you maybe give me, you did kind of set a range for your DSP business in the fourth quarter in terms of the sequential delta, just to clarify things, could you perhaps do the same for your analog and then your non-DSP, non-Analog?

您能否告訴我，您確實在第四季度為您的 DSP 業務設定了一個連續增量範圍，只是為了澄清事情，您是否可以為您的模擬和非 DSP 業務做同樣的事情？ -模擬？

Well, let's see. I am not sure we did, Joe. I am not sure I understand that question. We said our semiconductor revenues will be down about 5%, and we should have some growth, well I think we said, flat to up slightly for all three of our major areas of focus, wireless, mass market, and broadband, in terms of the fourth quarter.

好吧，走著瞧。我不確定我們做到了，喬。我不確定我是否理解這個問題。我們說我們的半導體收入將下降約5%，但我們應該會有一些成長，我想我們說過，我們的三個主要重點領域（無線、大眾市場和寬頻）在無線、大眾市場和寬頻方面持平或略有上升。第四季。

Yeah, Joe, what we did say was that our DSP orders were up sequentially at 11%, if that's where you're getting that. What I would say is Analog was down a little over 10% sequentially in the third quarter, and the other orders were basically flattish.

是的，Joe，我們確實說過，我們的 DSP 訂單連續增長了 11%（如果您是這麼理解的話）。我想說的是，Analog 在第三季環比下降了 10% 以上，而其他訂單基本上持平。

Okay. I guess it seems to me like there is a segment of this business that is not, let me just try this one more time, that is not in the 3 major end-markets that you are speaking to that must be declining more rapidly than those 3 major end-markets. Yes?

好的。我想在我看來，這個業務的某個部分不在你所說的 3 個主要終端市場中，讓我再試一次，它的下降速度一定比那些市場更快。3 個主要終端市場。是的？

Yes, that would be wireline communications, and in particular, as I noted, it relates to ASIC and other parts of our Analog business, automotive applications, and then to some degree some of the other PC peripheral related Analog custom mix signal products.

是的，這將是有線通信，特別是，正如我所指出的，它涉及ASIC 和我們模擬業務的其他部分、汽車應用，以及在某種程度上與其他PC 週邊相關的模擬定制混合信號產品。

Okay. And then one housekeeping question then I am off. I am sorry Ron. The whole laundry list of stuff here in the press release and in particular including the Micron common stock gain, is that in or out of the pro forma?

好的。然後問一個家政問題，然後我就離開了。我很抱歉羅恩。新聞稿中的全部內容，特別是包括美光普通股收益，是在準備考試中還是在準備考試之外？

Nothing with Micron is in the pro forma. We have excluded only our normal items from pro forma, the amortization of intangibles and some of the restructuring charges we had in the quarter relating primarily to some additional voluntary retirements and the accelerated depreciation we are taking on the 2 fabs that we're closing.

預計美光科技沒有任何內容。我們只從準備考試中排除了正常項目、無形資產攤銷和本季度的一些重組費用，這些費用主要與一些額外的自願退休和我們正在關閉的 2 座晶圓廠的加速折舊有關。

Okay. Because the wording changed a bit from last quarter, so it was unclear to me whether this 425 million from the Micron stock was or was not in the pro forma. So I can operate on the assumption that it is not?

好的。因為措辭與上季相比略有變化，所以我不清楚這 4.25 億美元的美光股票是否在準備考試中。那我可以假設它不是嗎？

That was a year ago, I think. That was a gain on Micron stock in the third quarter of 2000.

我想那是一年前的事了。這是美光科技股票 2000 年第三季的收益。

Okay, I'm sorry I missed a reading. My apologies Bill, dumb question.

好吧，很抱歉我錯過了閱讀。我很抱歉比爾，愚蠢的問題。

That's all right. We were still, it's nice to remember those days. We were selling Micron stock at $80 a share, Joe.

沒關係。我們依然安靜，回想起那些日子真是太好了。喬，我們以每股 80 美元的價格出售美光股票。

Yeah, that's why I was confused. Alright, my apologies. Take care.

是的，這就是我感到困惑的原因。好吧，我很抱歉。小心。

Thank you Joe. Next question please.

謝謝喬。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Dan Niles of Lehman Brothers.

你的下一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的丹·尼爾斯。

I think we all wish we could have that amnesia remembering those days. Moving forward, I think I got a couple of housekeeping questions. You said, Bill, you saw the floor for semi growth in Q4. Are you think that for the total revenue of the company as well?

我想我們都希望我們能夠忘記那些日子。展望未來，我想我有幾個內務問題。你說，比爾，你看到了第四季半成長的底線。您認為公司的總收入也是如此嗎？

Oh, more or less. I guess our Educational and Productivity Solutions business is normally about flat fourth to first quarter. I think those are the two kind of low quarters. It maybe a little early to say for our Sensors and Controls business, although again seasonally their strongest quarters tend to be in fact the second and third quarters as they build inventory for their customers and in markets like refrigeration, compression, home air-conditioning, and so on. So I think the important thing really though is to isolate, I mean they operate to some degree on their own quarterly and seasonal patterns. From our point of view, the important thing is that we think we have reached the floor for our semiconductor revenues.

哦，或多或少。我想我們的教育和生產力解決方案業務通常在第四季到第一季持平。我認為這是兩種低谷。對於我們的感測器和控制業務來說，現在說還為時過早，儘管從季節性角度來看，他們最強勁的季度實際上往往是第二季度和第三季度，因為他們為客戶以及製冷、壓縮、家用空調等市場建立庫存，等等。所以我認為真正重要的是隔離，我的意思是他們在某種程度上按照自己的季度和季節性模式運作。從我們的角度來看，重要的是我們認為我們的半導體收入已經達到了底部。

You dropped your breakeven level a lot with your expense cuts. Where do you think it is at this point in terms of total?

由於開支削減，你的損益平衡水準大幅下降。您認為目前整體情況如何？

Well that's hard to say because it will depend on mix of products and a lot of things. Certainly, the fact that we were profitable in the second quarter with that level of semiconductor revenues is the basic way to look at that I think, and we dropped into a loss position with the further decline in semiconductor revenues in the third quarter.

嗯，這很難說，因為這取決於產品的組合和許多因素。當然，我認為，我們在第二季度以半導體收入水平實現盈利的事實是看待這一問題的基本方式，而隨著第三季度半導體收入的進一步下降，我們陷入了虧損狀態。

I guess my question is you had about 1,657 million in semi revenue in Q2 and I think you did some extra cost reductions in Q2 to Q3. Does that get down to 1,500 or even better than that or is the 1,600 level sort of what we should be thinking about?

我想我的問題是，你們在第二季的半成品收入約為 16.57 億美元，我認為你們在第二季到第三季做了一些額外的成本削減。是否會下降到 1,500 甚至更好，或者 1,600 的水平是否是我們應該考慮的？

Yes. I think it is that level in the second quarter that we basically should be thinking about.

是的。我認為我們基本上應該考慮第二季的水平。

Okay. And then the final one is I noticed your R&D expenses were down a fair amount, 12% sequentially, relative to your SG&A, which I think was down about 4% sequentially. Anything specific going on in there? Are you canceling certain projects you had underway or is that just the way the headcount reduction fell?

好的。最後一點是，我注意到你們的研發費用相對於你們的 SG&A 來說下降了相當多的金額，比上一季度下降了 12%，我認為你們的 SG&A 比上一季下降了 4% 左右。裡面有什麼具體的事情發生嗎？您是否取消了正在進行的某些項目，或者這只是人員減少的方式？

No. It's probably most, Dan, related to R&D and our silicon process areas where in the early part of the year in particular a lot of the early buildup of initial wafers into our 300 mm line was classified as R&D because that was not a qualified production facility. And those wafers are now moving through the line. They will be qualified, we believe, at the end of the year. And so that was really, I would say, more of a surge of non-people related non-Ph.D. related R&D expense earlier in the year related to 300 mm.

不。丹，這可能是最重要的，與研發和我們的矽製程領域有關，在今年早些時候，特別是在我們的300 毫米生產線中早期積累的許多初始晶圓被歸類為研發，因為這不是合格的生產設施。這些晶圓現在正在通過生產線。我們相信，他們將在今年年底獲得資格。所以我想說，這實際上更多的是與人類無關的非博士學位的激增。今年稍早的相關研發費用與300毫米有關。

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you Dan. Next question please.

謝謝丹。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Charles Boucher of Bear Stearns.

您的下一個問題來自貝爾斯登的查爾斯·鮑徹。

I have a couple of accounting type questions. Wondering on the gross margin line. You are basically going to continue to keep your fabs underutilized, try to burn off inventory. Bill, what's the goal in terms of inventory days? Are you just going to try to keep inventory days about flat? Just take inventories down proportionate to the revenue decline or are you trying to go somewhat beyond that?

我有幾個會計類型的問題。想知道毛利率線。基本上，您將繼續保持晶圓廠利用率不足，並嘗試消耗庫存。比爾，庫存天數的目標是多少？您是否打算嘗試使庫存天數保持不變？只是根據收入下降的比例減少庫存，或者您是否試圖超出這個範圍？

Well, I think we are just trying to have a reasonable trade off there, Charles, in terms of risk. If we were to build inventory in custom products where we don't have backlog and don't have customer commitment, so somewhere around the current level of inventory, in terms of days in our semiconductor business, that will drop just a little bit more in the fourth quarter, but to the extent that that's the floor for revenues, it's about the floor for inventory days as well, I would think.

查爾斯，我認為我們只是試圖在風險方面進行合理的權衡。如果我們要在沒有積壓訂單且沒有客戶承諾的定制產品中建立庫存，那麼在當前庫存水平附近，就我們半導體業務的天數而言，這將會下降一點點在第四季度，但我認為，就收入的下限而言，它也與庫存天數的下限有關。

Okay. And if I plug in just the outlook guidance just straight into the model, I get a gross margin in Q4 of around 20%. Just wanted make sure that that space is a ballparking, if that is about right, how much of the decline from the 25% level in Q3 is coming from the underutilization of fabs? And I guess what I am really trying to get at is how much of a bounceback could you see from that low point on the margin line in Q4? Would you expect to see in Q1 if we do in fact get a flattish quarter?

好的。如果我將前景指引直接插入模型中，第四季的毛利率將達到 20% 左右。只是想確保這個空間是一個大致範圍，如果這是正確的，那麼第三季 25% 水平的下降有多少是來自晶圓廠利用率不足？我想我真正想知道的是，從第四季利潤線的低點來看，你能看到多少反彈？如果我們確實獲得了持平的季度業績，您預計第一季會出現這樣的情況嗎？

I would say essentially all of the further margin decline, Charles, is coming from fab underutilization combined with the fact that depreciation will continue to go up again. It will step up one more time in the fourth quarter, from the third quarter. So we are adding some more manufacturing fixed cost to manufacturing with the qualification of our 300 mm facility, and utilization will drop some, and after that, depreciation will begin to decline. Fourth quarter should be about the high watermark for quarterly depreciation, and utilization, over time, will pick back up, inventories should be about where they need to be in the fourth quarter, and we should be positioned for, I would think, pretty good margin leverage on the upside from there.

查爾斯，我想說，基本上所有利潤率的進一步下降都來自晶圓廠利用率不足以及折舊將繼續上升的事實。與第三季相比，第四季將再次上升。因此，我們在擁有 300 毫米工廠資質的製造中增加了更多的製造固定成本，利用率會下降一些，之後折舊將開始下降。第四季應該是季度折舊的高水位線，隨著時間的推移，利用率將會回升，庫存應該在第四季度達到所需的水平，我認為，我們應該做好準備保證金槓桿從那裡開始上升。

Okay, and then a last question. Just trying to understand how you're actually calculating your tax rate and how you got to the tax rate in Q3. You mentioned in the footnote 35% statutory rate offset to some extent by tax credits. You've got an effective rate of 26% in the third quarter. How did you get to that? And what would the effective rate be like in the fourth quarter? I am just trying to make sure I am doing this right.

好的，然後是最後一個問題。只是想了解您實際上如何計算稅率以及如何獲得第三季的稅率。您在腳註中提到35%的法定稅率在一定程度上被稅收抵免所抵消。第三季的有效率為 26%。你是怎麼做到這一點的？第四季的有效利率會是多少？我只是想確保我做得正確。

Charles, when we were running at a loss the tax rate at 35% becomes a tax benefit, and then we have the additional benefit coming from credits that are of fairly fixed amount and particularly our R&D tax credit which gives us an additional benefit of $25 million approximately for the fourth quarter. So our total tax expense will be a benefit of 35% of our pre-tax loss plus $25 million further benefit.

查爾斯，當我們虧損時，35% 的稅率就變成了稅收優惠，然後我們從相當固定金額的抵免額中獲得了額外的好處，特別是我們的研發稅收抵免，它為我們帶來了25 美元的額外收益第四季約為 100 萬元。因此，我們的總稅務支出將是稅前虧損的 35% 加上 2,500 萬美元的進一步收益。

Okay. So effective tax rate is going to be above 35%. Your tax benefit will be calculated off a higher percentage applied to the loss.

好的。因此有效稅率將高於35%。您的稅務優惠將根據適用於損失的較高百分比來計算。

Right. In effect, we get a tax benefit greater than that 35%.

正確的。實際上，我們獲得的稅收優惠高於 35%。

Okay. I just wanted to make sure that I was reading that correctly. That's all I've got. Thanks very much.

好的。我只是想確保我讀得正確。這就是我所擁有的一切。非常感謝。

Thank you Charles. Next question please.

謝謝你查爾斯。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Hans Mosesmann of Prudential Securities.

您的下一個問題來自保德信證券的漢斯摩西曼。

Thanks. Bill, demand trends after the event of 09/11 and how does October look so far?

謝謝。 Bill，09/11 事件之後的需求趨勢以及 10 月份到目前為止的情況如何？

Hans, probably some cross currents there. Demand trends in wireless I think have been helped by the higher demand for cell phones in current generation in the US market. Demand in other areas such as wireline communications is probably somewhat weaker overall I would think. There seems to be perhaps more hesitant in that area. I think those are the major ones. What's hard to see at this point probably is whether there will be significant demand trend changes in consumer areas which can affect some consumer end-equipments like digital still camera and so on. So far, those have held up reasonably well for us. In fact, near-term demand trends for our high-performance Analog product in applications like DVDs, digital still cameras have been in fact quite good, including in the near term here. So I would say the negative side of that has probably been in the wireline communications infrastructure area.

漢斯，那裡可能有一些交叉流。我認為無線需求趨勢得益於美國市場當前一代手機的更高需求。我認為有線通訊等其他領域的需求總體上可能會減弱。在這方面似乎還有更多的猶豫。我認為這些是主要的。目前還很難看出消費領域的需求趨勢是否會發生重大變化，進而影響一些消費性終端設備，如數位相機等。到目前為止，這些對我們來說表現得相當好。事實上，我們的高效能類比產品在 DVD、數位相機等應用中的近期需求趨勢實際上相當不錯，包括近期。所以我想說，其負面影響可能出現在有線通訊基礎設施領域。

And a followup. Can you give us some commentary on distribution? How you saw demand trends evolve just throughout the quarter and inventories that you may see there?

還有後續。您能給我們一些關於發行的評論嗎？您如何看待整個季度的需求趨勢以及您可能看到的庫存變化？

Demand and our revenues with distribution, Hans, were very much in line with our overall semiconductor revenues. So the percentage, which continues to run about 25% of our total revenues through distribution, remained about the same, i.e., they were down in about the same proportion. Inventory held by our distributors has improved somewhat in the third quarter but is still we would think higher than what those distributors really want to carry longer term. So there would still be some inventory liquidation to go in the distribution area.

漢斯，需求和我們的分銷收入與我們的整體半導體收入非常一致。因此，透過分銷繼續占我們總收入約 25% 的百分比保持大致相同，即下降的比例大致相同。我們的經銷商持有的庫存在第三季有所改善，但我們認為仍然高於這些分銷商真正希望長期持有的庫存。因此，分銷區域仍需要清理一些庫存。

And I think even the book-to-bill at the end level meeting with the distribution re-sales versus the end-orders there seem just pretty much right in line with what we are seeing at our semiconductor business at 0.9 as well.

我認為，即使是最終的訂單到帳單與分銷再銷售與最終訂單的比較，似乎也與我們在半導體業務中看到的 0.9 的情況非常一致。

Good. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

Thank you Hans. Next question please.

謝謝漢斯。請下一個問題。

Our next question is coming from Christian Koch of Trusco Capital Management.

我們的下一個問題來自 Trusco Capital Management 的 Christian Koch。

Yeah. Thank you. Bill, question on order patterns for your wireless customers. What was the linearity in the quarter, and any customer commitments that you have on the books? And then secondly, you mentioned about weakness in your MCU business, specifically in the automotive sector. Can you just comment on why you are seeing that potentially in Q4?

是的。謝謝。比爾，關於您的無線客戶的訂購模式的問題。本季的線性度如何，以及您在帳面上的任何客戶承諾？其次，您提到了 MCU 業務的弱點，特別是在汽車領域。您能否評論一下為什麼您會在第四季度看到這種情況？

Yes Christian. Order patterns in wireless tend to be not very clear, I guess, or risk even being confusing because at the time these tend to be all large OEM customers. At times though, order if it's a new product area for more traditionally for delivery out over a couple of quarters, and in fact, that happened some in the second quarter where we had really the resumption of strength in wireless orders. When the next platform then starts to get in line, they will start to order on a more of just-in-time basis, but the fact is our wireless book-to-bill ratio was above 1 in the third quarter. It was above 1 in the second quarter. So those order patterns generally have improved in both quarters. Also our orders from chipset customers, primarily in Asia, have continued to go well, have continued to be strong for third generation phones in the China market, for example there. Generally the weaker market at this point in wireless tends to be in Europe with the weaker economic conditions there, with, as we mentioned, some short or near-term strength in US and some strength in China. In our microcontroller, what we are seeing there I would say is both some seasonal and change in the automotive market related to the lower consumer confidence that we are seeing and the slowdown in automotive markets. And so I don't think that's out of the ordinary in terms of what we are seeing generally in an automotive market that is slowing with lower consumer confidence.

是的，基督徒。我猜想，無線領域的訂單模式往往不是很清晰，甚至有可能令人困惑，因為當時這些往往都是大型 OEM 客戶。但有時，如果它是一個新的產品領域，通常會在幾個季度內交付，事實上，這種情況發生在第二季度，我們的無線訂單確實恢復了強勁勢頭。當下一個平台開始排隊時，他們將開始更準時訂購，但事實是我們的無線預訂與帳單比率在第三季高於 1。第二季該數字高於1。因此，這兩個季度的訂單模式總體上都有所改善。此外，我們來自晶片組客戶（主要來自亞洲）的訂單持續順利，在中國市場（例如中國市場）的第三代手機持續保持強勁。一般來說，目前無線市場較弱的市場往往是歐洲，那裡的經濟狀況較弱，正如我們所提到的，美國有一些短期或近期的強勢，中國也有一些強勢。在我們的微控制器中，我想說的是，汽車市場的一些季節性和變​​化與我們所看到的消費者信心下降和汽車市場放緩有關。因此，我認為，就我們在汽車市場中普遍看到的情況而言，這並不奇怪，因為消費者信心下降，汽車市場正在放緩。

Chris, and one thing I would add on wireless is the order pattern in third quarter was actually very linear and more so than second quarter, where second quarter we did see some late in the quarter increases as customers were starting to place initial orders for GPRS and kind of the seasonality that happens late in the year. But what we saw in third quarter was very linear overall for handsets.

Chris，關於無線，我要補充的一件事是，第三季的訂單模式實際上非常線性，並且比第二季更加線性，第二季我們確實看到了一些成長，因為客戶開始為GPRS 下初始訂單以及年末發生的季節性。但我們在第三季看到的手機整體來說是非常線性的。

Great. Thanks Ron.

偉大的。謝謝羅恩。

Thank you. Next question please.

謝謝。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Cody Acree of Frost Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Frost Securities 的 Cody Acree。

Thanks. As you've come through this with some restructurings for your organization and obviously done some upgrade to your manufacturing plant, can you talk about some of your targets for operating margins as you come out of this cycle and you get back to more of a normalized run rate? What's going to be the differential on a typical run rate basis on the operating model?

謝謝。由於您已經通過對您的組織進行了一些重組，並且顯然對您的製造工廠進行了一些升級，您能否談談當您走出這個週期並回到更多正常化狀態時，您的運營利潤率目標運行速度？在營運模式的典型運作率基礎上會有什麼差異？

Cody, our targets for operating margin and for gross margin are unchanged or, if anything, we have raised the bar from where we thought we could be in a stronger market, like we had for most of year 2000. Our pricing has held up very well for all of our non-commodity products, which is almost all of our total product portfolio, in particular DSP, high performance Analog, and our other target markets, so we have not seen degradation there in pricing. And we have moved our manufacturing to what now, as demand resumes, will be an overall mix of more of greater efficiency in manufacturing with the closure of the 2 fabs that we have identified and the fact that we will be called in 300 mm by right around the end of the year for logic and have 200 mm now operational in our Analog fab. So our targets of operating at gross margins of approaching and then exceeding 50% of the company level and getting operating margin back in the mid 20% levels once we reach reasonable capacity utilization again with a mix we have of our DSP and Analog products, is exactly what we are going to be shooting for.

科迪，我們的營業利潤率和毛利率目標沒有改變，或者說，我們已經提高了我們認為可以處於更強勁市場的標準，就像 2000 年的大部分時間一樣。我們的定價非常穩定。對於我們所有的非商品產品來說，這幾乎是我們整個產品組合的全部，特別是DSP、高性能模擬和我們的其他目標市場，因此我們沒有看到定價下降。隨著需求的恢復，我們已經將製造轉移到現在的整體組合，包括關閉我們已經確定的 2 座工廠以及我們將被稱為 300 毫米的事實，從而提高製造效率。大約在今年年底，邏輯晶片現已在我們的模擬工廠投入運作200 毫米。因此，我們的目標是，毛利率接近並超過公司水準的 50%，一旦我們透過 DSP 和類比產品的組合再次達到合理的產能利用率，就將營業利潤率恢復到 20% 左右的水平。這正是我們要拍攝的目標。

Great and one followup here. Obviously your Analog sales trailing the DSP sales, the DSP getting strength in the wireless side, can you talk about your tax rates in the wireless markets between DSP and Analog and what's the success been there, talk a little bit about what's going on at Burr-Brown, and how the Analog portion is moving?

太棒了，這裡還有一個後續。顯然你們的模擬銷售落後於 DSP 銷售，DSP 在無線方面越來越強大，您能談談你們在無線市場上 DSP 和模擬之間的稅率以及那裡取得的成功嗎？談談 Burr 的情況- 布朗，模擬部分進展如何？

Yes, Cody, the tax rates we get between DSP and Analog are probably easiest to track in the catalog or standard product markets where a relatively large number of customers make decisions about DSP and then Analog and that tax rate this year for us is running about 60% now, up from something under 50% last year. So with the addition of Burr-Brown we have continued to make clear progress there, both attaching Analog to DSP, and in the case of Burr-Brown and many of their very low L high performance Analog customers continuing with Analog business, and as they keep digital applications attaching DSP to Analog, in fact, which is really something new for us. In wireless, that tends to be a little bit different and to the extent that some of our largest OEM customers in wireless are big enough to want to make separate decisions about digital baseband and analog baseband, for example, because they operate at such high volumes. So there you can have separate decisions. On the other hand, the growing part of our wireless business, that is chipset, is really a complete integration of digital baseband, analog baseband, the small signal RF which is a highly integrated DSP and analog package.

是的，Cody，我們在DSP 和模擬之間獲得的稅率可能是在目錄或標準產品市場中最容易追蹤的，在這些市場中，相對大量的客戶先做出關於DSP 的決定，然後再做出關於模擬的決定，今年我們的稅率約為現在是 60%，高於去年的 50% 以下。因此，隨著Burr-Brown 的加入，我們在這方面繼續取得了明顯的進展，將模擬連接到DSP，對於Burr-Brown 和他們的許多非常低L 的高性能模擬客戶來說，他們繼續從事模擬業務，並且因為他們事實上，讓數位應用將 DSP 附加到類比上，這對我們來說確實是新鮮事。在無線領域，情況往往有點不同，例如，我們在無線領域的一些最大的 OEM 客戶規模足夠大，想要就數位基頻和類比基頻做出單獨的決定，因為它們的營運量如此之大。所以你可以有單獨的決定。另一方面，我們無線業務不斷增長的部分，即晶片組，實際上是數位基頻、類比基頻、小訊號射頻的完全集成，它是高度整合的DSP和類比封裝。

Are you having, since that's out Friday, that chipset areas in attracting some design wins on the analog side?

自周五發布以來，您是否認為晶片組領域在模擬方面吸引了一些設計勝利？

Well, yes. We have certain wireless OEM customers where we have almost entirely analog business in fact and where we don't have the DSP at any one particular time. So I would say very clearly our direct RF and our analog baseband have been very successful there.

嗯，是。我們有某些無線 OEM 客戶，實際上我們幾乎完全擁有類比業務，並且在任何特定時間我們都沒有 DSP。所以我要非常明確地說，我們的直接射頻和類比基頻在那裡非常成功。

Right. Thanks guys.

正確的。多謝你們。

Thank you Cody. Next question please.

謝謝你科迪。請下一個問題。

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Tom Thornhill of UBS Warburg.

謝謝。您的下一個問題來自瑞銀華寶 (UBS Warburg) 的湯姆桑希爾 (Tom Thornhill)。

Bill, given the divergence between DSP and analog in the last quarter, one of them clearly on wireless activity and the other down, can you talk about some of the end-market exposure to the analog that's causing that to not move in the same direction?

Bill，考慮到上個季度 DSP 和模擬之間的差異，其中一個明顯是無線活動，另一個則下降，您能否談談模擬終端市場的一些風險，導致其無法朝同一方向發展？

Yes, those are mainly, Tom, what I would call more custom mix signal analog applications that are as much as anything related to PC peripherals which have continued to be fairly weak. Printers, for example, we have mix signal analog chips in a lot of printer and the heater chip, heater applications. We have our interface analog product in laptop PCs, which has been a relatively weaker part of the market. Both of those and some of the other interconnect for mix signal applications, I would say, all of those have been relatively weaker parts of the analog market, as have some of the infrastructure business, wireline infrastructure, even wireless infrastructure, as it relates, there have been weaker in analog.

是的，湯姆，這些主要是我所說的更多自定義混合信號模擬應用程序，它們與與 PC 外設相關的任何東西一樣多，但這些應用程序仍然相當薄弱。以印表機為例，我們在許多印表機和加熱器晶片、加熱器應用中都有混合訊號模擬晶片。我們的介面模擬產品用於筆記型電腦，這是市場上相對較弱的部分。我想說，這些以及混合訊號應用的其他一些互連，所有這些都是模擬市場中相對較弱的部分，正如一些基礎設施業務、有線基礎設施、甚至無線基礎設施一樣，模擬方面已經較弱。

And so the size of that, relative to the size of the analog that gets attached to DSP, is large enough to offset what does get dragged along with DSP?

那麼，相對於連接到 DSP 的模擬尺寸而言，其尺寸是否足夠大，足以抵消與 DSP 一起拖曳的內容？

Yes, I would say that's right. Because our analog business in total runs about 40% of our semiconductor revenue, so there is a fair amount of standalone analog in that number. That's correct.

是的，我會說這是對的。因為我們的類比業務總共約占我們半導體收入的 40%，所以這個數字中有相當數量的獨立類比業務。這是正確的。

And just the weighting of a particular sector, so for example wireless tends to, even though we sell analog product as well as DSP, the majority of our revenue there is DSP.

只是特定部門的權重，例如無線，即使我們銷售類比產品以及 DSP，我們的大部分收入也來自 DSP。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you Tom. Next question please.

謝謝你湯姆。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Nimal Vallipuram of Dresdner.

您的下一個問題來自德勒斯登的 Nimal Vallipuram。

Yeah, a couple of questions. Number one is that, Bill, can you give us some idea of what you are seeing and what you are hearing from the customers about the demand factor from all of these end-markets, the end-markets which are currently doing well for you like wireless and the broadband and also for the wireline and the other end-markets with 2002? Something qualitative. How comfortable are you, what you are hearing from the customers, and so on.

是的，有幾個問題。第一個是，比爾，您能否告訴我們您所看到的以及您從客戶那裡聽到的有關所有這些終端市場的需求因素的信息，這些終端市場目前對您來說表現良好，例如無線和寬頻以及有線和其他終端市場與2002 年？一些有品質的東西。您感覺有多舒服，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼，等等。

Nimal, I would say that in wireless, we are generally getting pretty good consistent indications of the demand. We will roll out for GPRS and that's for the current generation digital cell phones not only in the US but in Asian markets that we see through our chipsets would also be very reasonable demand patterns which in fact are held for us by the fact that we are seeing such a swing of moving from inventory liquidation to neutral inventory position in wireless. In wireline on the other hand, we have not seen the end of inventory liquidation by our customers, and as a result, we don't have nearly as good visibility, nearly as good indications of when that demand will resume. In areas like ASIC, any commitment to new socket so far is really pretty spotty as it relates to 2002. In the PC related markets, for us, and PC peripherals, as Ron noted a little earlier, both the DSP and Analog products that we sell into the storage market, for example, market sector primarily hard disk drive is pretty stable at this point and in fact has had some growth sequentially and a fairly stable market behind it as well. And on the consumer side, we have continued to have good reception and every indication that that will continue in new consumer applications for both DSP and Analog, digital still camera, Internet audio, there we have had some particular successes recently as well.

Nimal，我想說的是，在無線領域，我們通常會得到相當一致的需求指示。我們將推出GPRS，這不僅適用於美國，也適用於亞洲市場，我們透過晶片組看到的需求模式也將是非常合理的需求模式，事實上，我們的需求模式對我們來說是成立的，因為我們看到無線領域從庫存清算轉向中性庫存狀況的轉變。另一方面，在有線方面，我們還沒有看到客戶清理庫存的結束，因此，我們沒有那麼好的可見性，也沒有那麼好的跡象來表明需求何時會恢復。在ASIC 等領域，迄今為止對新插座的任何承諾都非常不穩定，因為它與2002 年有關。在PC 相關市場中，對於我們和PC 週邊來說，正如Ron 早些時候指出的那樣，我們的DSP 和類比產品以儲存市場為例，目前主要是硬碟的市場領域相當穩定，事實上已經連續出現了一些成長，其背後的市場也相當穩定。在消費者方面，我們繼續獲得良好的反響，並且一切跡象表明，這種情況將在DSP 和模擬、數位相機、互聯網音頻等新的消費者應用中繼續下去，我們最近在這些方面也取得了一些特別的成功。

Final area perhaps to mention then would be in broadband, which clearly has had a near-term inventory issues on behalf of our customers which we would think we will be more through again as we move into 2002, and that a further demand for DSL, for cable modem, and in our case for wireless Internet, wireless local area Internet in the residence, will all be growth opportunities for us there. And a lot of enthusiasm from our customers in cable modem for example with the recent DOCSIS 1.1 qualification by those customers.

也許要提到的最後一個領域是寬頻，這顯然代表我們的客戶存在近期庫存問題，我們認為進入 2002 年我們將再次渡過這個問題，並且對 DSL 的進一步需求，對於電纜調製解調器，以及我們的無線互聯網、住宅中的無線區域網路互聯網，都將是我們在那裡的成長機會。我們的客戶對電纜調變解調器充滿熱情，例如這些客戶最近獲得了 DOCSIS 1.1 認證。

Just a second question, it is a followup question. Given your operating margins have been impacted so significantly lately because of the depreciation and so on, can you give us any guidance as to when you would think that would turn around in terms that you can start making money on an operational basis? Would that be happening in the first half or will that be in the second half of next year?

只是第二個問題，這是後續問題。鑑於最近由於折舊等原因，您的營業利潤率受到瞭如此顯著的影響，您能否給我們任何指導，告訴我們您何時會認為這種情況會好轉，以便您可以開始在營運基礎上賺錢？這會發生在上半年還是明年下半年？

Nimal, that is still a little too far out for us to be precise about, I would think. We had identified earlier in the conversation here that if you go back to something around second quarter revenue levels in semiconductor, when the company was able to operate profitably, that's probably the best guide for about when we returned to profitability. But when we achieve that in terms of resumption of growth, is beyond our ability to predict at this point. As I have noted and as you noted, that's going to be very heavily influenced by capacity utilization because pricing has held up well and our market positioning, market shares have held up as well.

Nimal，我認為這對我們來說仍然有點太遙遠了，無法精確地描述。我們在早些時候的談話中已經確定，如果你回到半導體第二季度的收入水平，當公司能夠盈利時，這可能是我們何時恢復盈利的最佳指南。但我們何時能實現恢復成長，目前超出了我們的預測能力。正如我和您所指出的，這將在很大程度上受到產能利用率的影響，因為定價保持良好，我們的市場定位和市場份額也保持不變。

Okay Nimal, thank you very much. Operator next question please.

好的，尼馬爾，非常感謝你。請接線生下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Terry Ragsdale of Goldman Sachs.

你們的下一個問題來自高盛的特里·拉格斯代爾。

Yeah, hi, a couple if I could. It sounds like from a revenue perspective, and therefore I am assuming from an order perspective, broadband was a little bit worse than you expected or maybe a lot worse than you expected, although you expected it down, and wireless is probably better than you expected because I think you kind of indicated that it was going to be up modestly, and it was up more than modestly. Is that right? And could you characterize kind of equipment takes versus your expectations in orders in general in 3Q.

是的，嗨，如果可以的話，一對。這聽起來像是從收入的角度來看，因此我從訂單的角度假設，寬頻比你預期的要差一點，或者可能比你預期的差很多，儘管你預期它會下降，而無線可能比你預期的要好因為我認為你有點暗示它會小幅上漲，而且上漲幅度超出了小幅上漲。是對的嗎？您能否描述一下第三季的設備需求類型與您對訂單的整體預期。

I think most of those conclusions, Terry, are correct. Generally we knew that our broadband in the near term, our broadband business, would need to slow at some point because a lot of that revenue for us was going into infrastructure build in Europe, in particular, which over time needs to convert to the ongoing business of customer premise modems and so on, and I think that our customers in Europe probably ended up with more inventory than they would have liked, and so we have hit an inventory pause in broadband and in cable modem that is probably a little more than we would have liked, more than we would have expected, and is maybe impacted to some degree by the fact that generally the economic outlook is certainly less certain and arguably worse than it was. Wireless on the other hand, I think, has, generally our customers there have completed inventory liquidations, as we would have expected them to, maybe even a little better, but certainly, as we would have expected. Near-term demand has had some upside, and the GPRS rollout by these customers has been certainly as or maybe a little better than we would have expected. So I think that's the background on both of those.

特里，我認為大多數結論都是正確的。一般來說，我們知道我們的寬頻在短期內，我們的寬頻業務，在某個時候需要放緩，因為我們的大部分收入都用於歐洲的基礎設施建設，特別是隨著時間的推移，這些收入需要轉化為持續的基礎設施建設。客戶駐地調製解調器等業務，我認為我們在歐洲的客戶最終可能擁有比他們希望的更多的庫存，因此我們在寬頻和電纜調製解調器方面遇到了庫存暫停，這可能比他們希望的要多一點我們本來希望，比我們預期的更多，並且可能在某種程度上受到以下事實的影響：總體而言，經濟前景肯定不太確定，而且可以說比以前更糟糕。另一方面，我認為，無線通常我們的客戶已經完成了庫存清算，正如我們所期望的那樣，甚至可能更好一些，但當然，正如我們所期望的那樣。近期需求有一些上升空間，這些客戶推出的 GPRS 肯定比我們預期的要好，或者可能比我們預期的要好一些。所以我認為這就是兩者的背景。

Anything notable on the other areas beyond those two? Or whether the rest kind of in line with where you thought going into the quarter?

除了這兩個領域之外，其他領域還有什麼值得注意的嗎？或者其餘部分是否符合您對本季的預期？

I would say in general everything else was pretty in line. Again, we noted overall growth in orders for our, in general, for our high performance analog business. Some of that is consumer related, as we noted as well.

我想說，總的來說，其他一切都非常順利。我們再次注意到我們的高效能模擬業務訂單整體成長。正如我們也指出的，其中一些與消費者相關。

As a way to think about your confidence that 3Q is the order bottom and 4Q is the revenue bottom, do you guys think these semi book-to-bill can be over 1 in 4Q?

作為一種方式來思考你對第三季度是訂單底部和第四季度是收入底部的信心，你們認為這些半訂單出貨比在第四季度可以超過 1 嗎？

Well, I am looking at everything being pretty flattish. We think the conclusion would be right around 1, right, which would be an indication both of having reached the point of stability and outlook that first quarter should be pretty flattish seasonally and based on history with fourth quarter.

嗯，我覺得一切都很平淡。我們認為結論將在 1 左右，對吧，這表明已經達到穩定點，並且根據第四季度的歷史，第一季的季節性應該相當平穩。

Okay, and just a last one. Is it fair to say royalties were down more than semi revenues?

好的，還有最後一個。可以說特許權使用費下降幅度超過半成品收入下降幅度嗎？

Sequentially royalties were actually up just a little bit, Terry, not of any particular significance though, and that is just because of the patterns of individual customers, and in fact after we reached our agreement with Hynix as a royalty payer back in the second quarter, that they are paying us on cash basis, and we are taking royalties from them into revenue as we get cash from them, which caused a slight increase sequentially in royalties.

特里，特許權使用費實際上只增加了一點，但沒有任何特別的意義，這只是因為個人客戶的模式，事實上是在我們與海力士在第二季度作為特許權使用費支付者達成協議之後，他們以現金方式向我們付款，當我們從他們那裡獲得現金時，我們將從他們那裡獲得的特許權使用費計入收入，這導致特許權使用費連續略有增加。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

And I guess, as an engineer, Terry, I conclude that anytime you have data points of book-to-bill ratio of 0.69. 0.80, and 0.90, that sure looks and feels like it is pointing towards 1. So I think directionally that's where we think we are going.

我想，身為工程師，Terry，我得出的結論是，任何時候訂單出貨比的數據點都是 0.69。 0.80 和 0.90，無論看起來還是感覺都像是指向 1。所以我認為從方向上來說，這就是我們認為我們要去的地方。

I find my trend chart sounds very good lately though. Thank you.

我發現我的趨勢圖最近聽起來非常好。謝謝。

Thank you Terry. Next question please.

謝謝特里。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Manish Goyal of Neuberger Berman.

您的下一個問題來自 Neuberger Berman 的 Manish Goyal。

Yeah, hi Bill. Looking at the losses during the last few quarters and expected losses in the next few quarters, do you think you may change your overall capacity planning during the next cycle where you may end up outsourcing more of your business?

是的，嗨比爾。看看過去幾季的虧損和未來幾季的預期虧損，您是否認為您可能會在下一個週期改變整體產能規劃，最終外包更多業務？

Well, Manish, we would certainly plan to be opportunistic in the next cycle. Clearly in the near term, since we have excess underutilized capacity, our first opportunity is going to be to fill that up, but as we then need to make the next expansion decisions, if there is readily available high-quality, low-cost logic wafers available in the marketplace, we will look at that. I think our long-term strategy of having the majority of our manufacturing owned and fully under control, under our control, will remain in place. But this kind of market environment makes for opportunities, and we will be very pragmatic about those opportunities.

嗯，曼尼什，我們肯定會計劃在下一個週期中投機取巧。顯然，在短期內，由於我們有多餘的未充分利用的產能，我們的第一個機會將是填補這些產能，但如果有現成的高品質、低成本的邏輯，我們就需要做出下一個擴張決策市場上有可用的晶圓，我們會看看。我認為我們的長期策略將保持不變，即擁有我們的大部分製造業務並完全處於我們的控制之下。但這樣的市場環境孕育著機遇，我們會非常務實地對待這些機會。

Bill, just on the same lines, you said that some of the capacity from 300 mm will now be transferred from R&D to production. What is your initial feel, whether the capital intensity of your business increases at 300 mm or whether it declines at 300 mm wafer size?

Bill，同樣，您說300毫米的部分產能現在將從研發轉移到生產。您的初步感受是什麼？您的企業的資本密集度是在 300 毫米晶圓尺寸時增加還是在 300 毫米晶圓尺寸時下降？

I'd say I am not sure it changes very much. I mean the economics get proven out, I would think, pretty rapidly, Manish, in 300 mm. There is something like moving from 0.18 micron 200 mm to 0.13 micron 300 mm, 2.4 times more die per wafer, 60% reduction in cost per wafer, with the addition of that capital. And so I would say that really keeps the capital intensity in effect about the same and says that we can drive cost down very substantially and get further system-on-chip integration with that 300 mm capability at 0.13 micron or below lithography. So that should be giving us exactly what we want there.

我想說我不確定它會改變很多。我的意思是，我認為 Manish 在 300 毫米內很快就能證明經濟性。從 0.18 微米 200 毫米轉移到 0.13 微米 300 毫米，每個晶圓的晶片數量增加了 2.4 倍，每個晶圓的成本降低了 60%，再加上資本的增加。因此，我想說，這實際上使資本密集度保持在大致相同的水平，並且我們可以大幅降低成本，並在 0.13 微米或以下光刻技術下實現 300 毫米能力的進一步片上系統整合。所以這應該給我們正是我們想要的東西。

Right. Here is what I don't understand, once you say that you are going to get 2.4 or 2.2 times more units. You think most of those cost benefits are passed to the customers and none of that changes your revenue line that will change your capital intensity?

正確的。這是我不明白的，一旦你說你將獲得 2.4 或 2.2 倍的單位。您認為大部分成本效益都轉移給了客戶，而這些都不會改變您的收入線，從而改變您的資本密集度？

Well, we may in some circumstances share with the customer. If you use our high volume markets like wireless as an example, we would think we would run with about the same gross margins that we are running now, with much higher revenue capabilities there. In the case of converting that into standard DSP products, it is going to be more product that we can run at an even higher gross margins. So it is sharing some of the ultimate benefit with the customers but at greater at today's or model a greater gross margin in the future.

嗯，在某些情況下我們可能會與客戶分享。如果您以無線等大容量市場為例，我們認為我們的毛利率將與現在大致相同，但收入能力要高得多。如果將其轉換為標準 DSP 產品，我們將能夠以更高的毛利率生產更多產品。因此，它正在與客戶分享一些最終的利益，但要在今天獲得更大的利益，或在未來建立更高的毛利率。

Thank you Bill.

謝謝比爾。

Thank you Manish. Next question please.

謝謝你，曼尼什。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming from Vadim Zlotnikov of Sanford Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自桑福德伯恩斯坦公司的瓦迪姆·茲洛特尼科夫。

One clarification and one just followup to a previous question. When you say that the depreciation will hit a high point in the fourth quarter and then decline, do you mean that in terms of growth rate, do you mean the actual dollar value of the depreciation will decline?

一項澄清和一項只是對上一個問題的後續。當你說貶值會在第四季達到高點然後下降時，你的意思是從成長率來看，你的意思是貶值的實際美元價值會下降嗎？

Dollar value of the deprecation is what I meant Vadim.

貶值的美元價值就是我所說的 Vadim。

And then in that case, how big a client would you expect? Would you expect the total depreciation to be roughly flat year over year or...

那麼在這種情況下，您期望有多大的客戶呢？您是否預計總折舊同比大致持平，或者...

Yes, if we hit roughly the capex target that we talked about before, total depreciation should be pretty flat in the 1.550 billion. It rounds to 1.6 billion level in both years.

是的，如果我們大致達到我們之前討論的資本支出目標，總折舊應該相當穩定在 15.5 億美元。兩年均四捨五入至 16 億水準。

Perfect, and then the followup is you still reinvest even though you are going to run capex below depreciation. You are still doing a fair bit of reinvestment even at the 300 to 350 million per quarter capex. Is that primarily 300 mm? Could you describe a little bit as to where that spending is going?

完美，接下來就是即使你的資本支出低於折舊，你仍然可以再投資。即使每季資本支出為 3 億至 3.5 億美元，您仍然需要進行相當多的再投資。主要是300毫米嗎？您能否簡單描述一下這些支出的去向？

Well that would tend to be the more advanced processes, that's correct. It would be into advanced testers, advanced test capacity, more copper interconnect equipment, for example. It would be in those kind it would be very little sort of generic 0.18-micron capacity or anything. And as we commented on a few minutes ago, even those levels of capex will depend to some degree on availability of foundry product at what may be below trend line pricing for a period of time versus the timing of when we make those capital expenditures. So we will plan to run that pretty tight with a view towards opportunities in the outside market as well.

嗯，這往往是更先進的流程，這是正確的。例如，它將進入先進的測試儀、先進的測試能力、更多的銅互連設備。它將是那種非常小的通用 0.18 微米容量或任何東西。正如我們幾分鐘前評論的那樣，即使這些資本支出水平在某種程度上也將取決於代工產品的可用性，在一段時間內可能低於趨勢線定價與我們進行這些資本支出的時間。因此，我們將計劃保持相當緊張的狀態，同時也著眼於外部市場的機會。

Thank you Vadim. Next question please.

謝謝瓦迪姆。請下一個問題。

Your next question is coming David Wu of David Wu & Associates.

您的下一個問題將由 David Wu & Associates 的 David Wu 提出。

Quick question. Bill, the outlook for the inventory correction of broadband, did you say that it will be done by Q4? And I know you mentioned about the wireline inventory correction going to be done by the end of the calendar year and I was wondering whether you have got confirm from both OEMs and subcontractors out there to see what levels of inventory they are currently running at.

快問。 Bill，寬頻庫存修正的展望，你說的是到Q4就可以完成嗎？我知道您提到將在年底前完成有線庫存修正，我想知道您是否已獲得原始設備製造商和分包商的確認，以了解他們目前的庫存水平。

David both of those, it is pretty difficulty for us to have very clear forecasts on. In wireline, I think my comment was that with the length of time that the inventory liquidation has been underway, which really started at the beginning of the year, that having that substantially completed by the end of this year is, I think, a reasonable way to view that market sector. That's still reasonably paid to us though frankly in terms of that very complex supply chain and the status of subcontractors in that market and so on. In broadband, there has been an inventory build in the infrastructure area. How that completely gets liquidated will depend on market conditions in those areas, but probably over the next couple of quarters is when we would expect that to be liquidated.

大衛，我們很難對這兩個問題做出非常明確的預測。在有線新聞中，我認為我的評論是，鑑於庫存清理工作已經進行了很長時間（實際上是從今年年初開始的），我認為在今年年底前基本完成是合理的。查看該市場領域的方式。坦白說，就非常複雜的供應鏈以及該市場中分包商的地位等而言，這對我們來說仍然是合理的。在寬頻方面，基礎設施領域已經建立了庫存。如何完全清算將取決於這些地區的市場狀況，但我們預計可能會在接下來的幾季內清算。

Thanks David. Operator next question please.

謝謝大衛。請接線生下一個問題。

Thank you. And our last question will be coming from Alec Berman of Pangaea.

謝謝。我們的最後一個問題將來自 Pangaea 的 Alec Berman。

Alec, are you there?

亞歷克，你在嗎？

Alec Berman your line is live, do you have a question?

Alec Berman 您的路線已上線，您有問題嗎？

Okay operator, we will stop there, I guess, and before we end the call, let me remind everyone that the replay is available on our website. Thank you and good evening.

好吧，接線員，我想我們就到此為止，在結束通話之前，讓我提醒大家，我們的網站上提供重播。謝謝你，晚上好。

Thank you all for your participation. That will conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.

感謝大家的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。謝謝。