Ternium SA (TX) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Ternium's conference call to discuss the results for the first quarter 2026. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) We would like to remind you that this conference call is intended exclusively for investors and market analysts. We request that any questions from journalists be dedicated to the Media Relations through our website in the Press section.

各位女士、先生，早安。歡迎參加 Ternium 的電話會議，討論 2026 年第一季的業績結果。我們在此通知各位，本活動將被錄音。(接線員指示) 我們也提醒各位，本次電話會議僅供投資人與市場分析師參與。我們請媒體記者的任何提問，請透過我們網站「新聞」專區的媒體關係管道提出。

With this, I would like now to turn the floor over to Mr. Sebastian Marti. You may proceed.

接下來，我想把時間交給 Sebastian Marti 先生。請開始。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My name is Sebastian Marti, and I am Ternium's Global IR and Compliance Senior Director. Yesterday, we announced our financial results for the first quarter of 2026. Today's call is intended to provide additional context to that presentation.

各位早安，感謝各位加入我們。我叫 Sebastian Marti，現任 Ternium 全球投資人關係與法遵資深總監。昨天，我們公布了 2026 年第一季的財務結果。今天的電話會議旨在為該簡報提供更多背景說明。

I'm joined by Maximo Vedoya, Ternium's Chief Executive Officer; and Pablo Brizzio, the company's Chief Financial Officer, who will discuss Ternium's operating environment and performance. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the call to your questions.

與我一同出席的有 Ternium 執行長 Maximo Vedoya，以及公司財務長 Pablo Brizzio，他們將討論 Ternium 的營運環境與表現。在我們的預備發言之後，我們將開放各位提問。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page 2 in today's webcast presentation. You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議包含前瞻性資訊，實際結果可能與所表達或暗示者有所差異。可能影響結果的因素載於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以及今日網路直播簡報第 2 頁。此外，任何非 IFRS 財務衡量指標與最直接可比的 IFRS 指標之調節，亦可在昨日發布的新聞稿中查閱。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 Vedoya 先生。

Thank you, Sebastian. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. Earnings margin in the first quarter continued on a recovery path, reaching 12%. This improvement reflects a combination of factors: an improving market environment in Mexico, a focus on profitability over volume in Brazil, and the continued work of our teams to increase efficiency across our industrial operations.

謝謝你，Sebastian。各位早安，感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。第一季的獲利率持續走在復甦軌道上，達到 12%。這項改善反映多項因素的綜合作用：墨西哥市場環境改善、巴西以獲利優先於銷量，以及我們團隊持續推動提升整體工業營運效率的工作。

In Mexico, apparent steel consumption fell around 10% in 2025, driven by uncertainty triggered by US trade actions. In 2026, however, we see an improvement. The Mexican government has been actively working to mitigate the negative effects of US trade measures on the Mexican economy by defending the local industry against unfair imports from Asia. These actions not only support the continued development of the Mexican industry but are closely aligned with the US government's own trade strategy.

在墨西哥，2025 年表觀鋼材消費量下滑約 10%，主因是美國貿易行動引發的不確定性。然而在 2026 年，我們看到情況正在改善。墨西哥政府一直積極採取行動，透過防範來自亞洲的不公平進口、捍衛本地產業，以減輕美國貿易措施對墨西哥經濟的負面影響。這些行動不僅支持墨西哥產業的持續發展，也與美國政府自身的貿易策略高度一致。

Plan Mexico is also central to this effort. It promotes industrial development, increases domestic content in manufacturing and strengthens regional supply chains. In this same line, last week, the steel industry and the Mexican government signed a landmark agreement to prioritize domestically produced steel in all public procurements, a clear sign of the opportunity ahead.

「墨西哥計畫」（Plan Mexico）也是這項努力的核心。該計畫推動產業發展、提高製造業的國內含量，並強化區域供應鏈。同樣在此脈絡下，上週鋼鐵產業與墨西哥政府簽署了一項具里程碑意義的協議，優先在所有公共採購中使用國內生產的鋼材，清楚顯示未來的機會。

Taken together, these policies support our expectation of a recovery in Mexican steel demand. In this context, we expect volumes in Mexico to continue improving in the second quarter, driven mainly by the commercial market. The significant destocking that took place across the value chain in 2025 is now giving way to a normalization of apparent demand. Beyond that, we are seeing early movements in several infrastructure projects, which could add meaningful demand in the coming quarters.

綜合而言，這些政策支持我們對墨西哥鋼材需求復甦的預期。在此背景下，我們預期墨西哥第二季的出貨量將持續改善，主要由商業市場帶動。2025 年價值鏈各環節出現的大幅去庫存，現正逐步轉向表觀需求的正常化。除此之外，我們也看到多項基礎建設專案出現早期動向，可能在未來幾季帶來可觀的需求增量。

Turning to our Pesqueria project in Mexico. The ramp-up curve of the cold rolling mill and the galvanizing line are running ahead of plan. We expect both lines to be operating close to a full capacity by October. The slab facility is also advancing in line with expectation. This project is central to our strategy. It will significantly increase our vertical integration in Mexico, reduce our reliance on externally sourced slabs, and enhance our product capabilities across automotive, industrial and construction applications.

接著談談我們在墨西哥的 Pesqueria 專案。冷軋廠與鍍鋅產線的爬坡進度均超前計畫。我們預期兩條產線在 10 月前後可接近滿載運轉。板胚設施也正依照預期推進。此專案是我們策略的核心。它將大幅提升我們在墨西哥的垂直整合程度、降低對外部採購板胚的依賴，並強化我們在汽車、工業與建築應用領域的產品能力。

Importantly, as the automotive USMCA rule of origin enters into effect next year, this facility will position Ternium as a key player in meeting a growing demand. In this respect, I am pleased to share that we have been granted a patent in the United States for our new electrical steelmaking process, which will enable us to produce exposed steel at scale. This innovation leverages the integration of direct reduction at the same site. In addition, innovations such as virtual stamping solution, which utilizes artificial intelligence to streamline certification process for the automotive industry, enforcing our drive for operational excellence.

尤其重要的是，隨著汽車產業 USMCA 原產地規則將於明年生效，該設施將使 Ternium 在滿足日益成長的需求方面占據關鍵地位。在此方面，我很高興分享，我們的新電工鋼製程已在美國獲得專利，將使我們能夠以規模化方式生產外露鋼（exposed steel）。此項創新運用同一基地的直接還原整合優勢。此外，像是虛擬沖壓解決方案等創新，運用人工智慧簡化汽車產業的認證流程，進一步強化我們追求卓越營運的動能。

This commitment continues to be recognized by our customers. In February, we were honored by Ariston Group with their Strategic Partner award, the highest recognition for quality and partnership. And in April, Ternium Mexico received the 2025 John Deere Crop Award and achieved the partner level, John Deere's highest distinction for cost-effective and long-term collaboration.

這項承諾也持續獲得客戶肯定。2 月，我們獲 Ariston Group 頒發「策略夥伴獎」，這是其對品質與合作關係的最高肯定。4 月，Ternium Mexico 獲得 2025 年 John Deere Crop Award，並達成夥伴等級（partner level），為 John Deere 對具成本效益且長期合作的最高級別表彰。

Brazil steel consumption remains broadly stable with some sectors showing resilience and others facing more pressure. The automotive industry continues to perform well, with production expected to grow around 4% this year. On the other hand, sectors like agribusiness has been weakened -- have seen weaker demand.

巴西鋼材消費整體大致維持穩定，部分產業展現韌性，另一些則面臨較大壓力。汽車產業持續表現良好，預期今年產量將成長約 4%。另一方面，農業綜合企業等產業已轉弱——需求也較為疲弱。

A key challenge in the quarter was a significant increase in steel imports, up around 30% versus the previous quarter. Imports accelerated ahead of the government's antidumping measures on cold-rolled and coated products. This has resulted in elevated inventory levels of imported material in the market, which we expect to normalize by the second half of the year. As these trade defensive measures gain traction and inventories level normalize, we expect Usiminas' market share to improve.

本季的一項主要挑戰是鋼材進口大幅增加，較前一季成長約 30%。在政府對冷軋與塗鍍產品採取反傾銷措施之前，進口加速湧入。這導致市場上進口材料庫存水位偏高，我們預期將在下半年回歸正常。隨著這些貿易防衛措施逐步發揮效果、庫存水位正常化，我們預期 Usiminas 的市占率將有所改善。

However, it is also worth noting that import pressure is not limited to China. Volumes from Southeast Asia, particularly South Korea and Vietnam, have increased significantly, reflecting the indirect effects of China oversupply on the region's trade flow.

不過也值得注意的是，進口壓力並不僅限於中國。來自東南亞的進口量，特別是南韓與越南，已顯著增加，反映中國供給過剩對該區域貿易流向的間接影響。

In March, we were honored to welcome President Lula to the official inauguration of the Roberto Rocca Technical School located near our Rio de Janeiro plant. The school provides full-funded technical education to young people from the surrounding communities, offering them access to world-class education. Built with an investment of $50 million, we expect to welcome close to 600 students by next year.

3 月，我們很榮幸迎接魯拉總統出席位於里約熱內盧工廠附近的 Roberto Rocca 技術學校正式落成典禮。該校為周邊社區的年輕人提供全額資助的技術教育，讓他們能接觸世界一流的教育資源。該校投資金額為 5,000 萬美元，我們預期到明年將迎來接近 600 名學生。

In Argentina, after a 2024 record, one of the lowest steel consumption levels in two decades, the market began to recover in 2025. However, 2026 did not start as we had expected. Demand is growing unequally. Mining, energy and agriculture are performing well. Automotive remains at reasonable levels. Constructions remain soft. Metal, mechanical and home appliance sectors are lagging, affected by weak domestic consumption.

在阿根廷方面，2024 年在創下紀錄後，鋼材消費量降至近二十年來最低水準之一，市場於 2025 年開始復甦。然而，2026 年的開局並不如我們預期。需求成長呈現不均衡。礦業、能源與農業表現良好。汽車產業維持在合理水準。建築業仍然疲弱。金屬、機械與家電等產業落後，受到國內消費疲弱的影響。

As I bring my remarks to a close, I am pleased to share that Ternium has once again been recognized as a Sustainability Champion by the World Steel Association. This recognition is granted to companies that integrate sustainability into their core strategy, combining environmental management, safety performance, innovation and responsible community engagement.

在我結束發言之際，我很高興分享，Ternium 再次獲世界鋼鐵協會認可為「永續發展冠軍」。此項認可授予將永續發展融入核心策略的公司，結合環境管理、安全績效、創新以及負責任的社區參與。

Looking ahead, we are constructive on our market and our ability to continue improving performance. In Mexico, the combination of normalizing demand, supportive industrial policies and the ramp-up of our downstream projects position us well for the quarters ahead. In Brazil, as trade defensive measures gain traction and imports inventory normalize, we expect to see a healthy competitive environment. In Argentina, we continue to monitor the recovery closely, while remaining -- maintaining our operational discipline. Across all our operations, our teams remain focused on driving efficiency and lowering cost, and we're already seeing the benefits.

展望未來，我們對市場前景以及持續提升績效的能力持建設性看法。在墨西哥，需求回歸常態、支持性的產業政策，以及我們下游專案的逐步放量，使我們在未來幾個季度具備良好定位。在巴西，隨著貿易防禦措施逐步發揮作用且進口庫存回歸正常，我們預期將看到健康的競爭環境。在阿根廷，我們持續密切關注復甦情況，同時維持——保持我們的營運紀律。在我們所有營運據點，我們的團隊仍專注於提升效率與降低成本，我們已經看到成效。

Overall, the recognition we continue to receive from our customers reflects the quality of what we are doing every day. We are confident in Ternium's ability to deliver even stronger performance in the periods ahead.

整體而言，我們持續獲得客戶的肯定，反映出我們每天所做工作的品質。我們對 Ternium 在未來期間交出更強勁的表現充滿信心。

With that, I'd like to move to a review of our quarterly performance. Pablo, please go ahead.

接下來，我想進入我們季度表現的回顧。Pablo，請開始。

Thanks, Maximo, and thanks, everybody, for participating in our call. So let's review our operational and financial performance for the first quarter of this year.

謝謝你，Maximo，也謝謝各位參與我們的電話會議。那麼我們來回顧今年第一季的營運與財務表現。

Starting the webcast presentation on page number 3, we can see that the adjusted EBITDA increased sequentially by 21% in the first quarter, in line with our expectations and reflecting margin improvement. Looking ahead, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to continue increasing, supported by higher revenue per ton, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, partially offset by higher cost per ton across our main markets.

從網路簡報第 3 頁開始，我們可以看到第一季調整後 EBITDA 較前一季成長 21%，符合我們的預期並反映利潤率改善。展望未來，我們預期調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將持續上升，主要受每噸營收提高所支撐，尤其在墨西哥與巴西；但在我們主要市場，每噸成本上升將部分抵銷。

Let's move to the next slide. Net income for the first quarter of 2026 reached $372 million. This reflects improved operating performance, stronger net financial results, primarily driven by foreign exchange gain in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, and positive deferred tax results. Deferred tax gain amounted to $122 million, driven mainly by currency fluctuations in Argentina and Brazil and inflation effects in Argentina. Net income in the quarter also included a $48 million loss from the quarterly update of the value of a provision from ongoing litigation related to the acquisition of the participation in Usiminas in 2012.

我們看下一張投影片。2026 年第一季淨利達 3.72 億美元。這反映營運表現改善、淨財務結果更強，主要由墨西哥、阿根廷與巴西的外匯收益，以及遞延所得稅的正面結果所帶動。遞延所得稅收益為 1.22 億美元，主要由阿根廷與巴西的匯率波動，以及阿根廷的通膨影響所驅動。本季淨利亦包含 4,800 萬美元損失，係因對一項準備金價值進行季度更新所致；該準備金與 2012 年收購 Usiminas 持股相關的持續訴訟有關。

Let's turn to page 5 to review the Steel segment performance. Overall, shipments were broadly in line with the previous quarter. In Mexico, volumes increased, supported by solid commercial market activity. This was driven by more effective trade defenses against unfair imports, healthier inventory level across the value chain and a seasonal recovery in demand.

我們翻到第 5 頁回顧鋼鐵事業部的表現。整體而言，出貨量大致與前一季持平。在墨西哥，受穩健的商業市場活動支撐，銷量增加。這主要由更有效的貿易防禦以對抗不公平進口、價值鏈各環節更健康的庫存水位，以及需求的季節性回升所帶動。

In Brazil, Usiminas prioritized profitability in the face of increased cost volatility, particularly in energy and logistics, resulting in a modest sequential decline in shipments. In the Southern region, demand softened, reflecting weaker industrial activity in Argentina, alongside typical seasonal factors, leading to a sequential decrease in shipments. Looking ahead, we expect shipments to trend higher, mainly driven by Mexico and Argentina, as trade measures gain traction in Mexico and demand conditions gradually improve across both markets.

在巴西，面對成本波動加劇（尤其是能源與物流），Usiminas 優先考量獲利能力，導致出貨量較前一季小幅下滑。在南部地區，需求轉弱，反映阿根廷工業活動較疲弱，加上典型季節性因素，導致出貨量較前一季下降。展望未來，我們預期出貨量將呈上升趨勢，主要由墨西哥與阿根廷帶動，因墨西哥的貿易措施逐步發揮作用，且兩個市場的需求狀況逐步改善。

Let's turn to page 6 to review the performance of our Steel segment. Steel cash operating income improved during the period, driven by higher margins, resulting from realized prices gains, which were partially offset by higher raw material and purchased slab costs.

我們翻到第 6 頁回顧鋼鐵事業部的表現。本期鋼鐵現金營業利益改善，主要由利潤率提高所帶動，源自已實現的售價上漲；但部分被原材料與外購板坯成本上升所抵銷。

On next slide, the Mining segment reflects a different dynamic. In this case, shipment declined sequentially due to operational disruptions in Brazil caused by an unusual intense rainfall.

下一張投影片，採礦事業部呈現不同的動態。在此情況下，由於巴西遭遇異常強降雨造成營運中斷，出貨量較前一季下降。

Finally, let's turn to the cash flow and balance sheet performance on page 8. The company continues to generate strong cash flow from operations, although this quarter, we saw an increase in working capital, driven by an increase in trade receivables, mainly due to higher steel prices and volumes in Mexico. We anticipate that sales will grow in the second quarter of this year, likely requiring a further rise in working capital. Capital expenditures continue to reflect our progress in the expansion of our industrial center in Pesqueria, now mostly focused on the construction of the slab making facility.

最後，我們翻到第 8 頁看現金流量與資產負債表表現。公司持續產生強勁的營運現金流；不過本季我們看到營運資金增加，主要由應收帳款上升所致，主要原因是墨西哥鋼價與銷量提高。我們預期今年第二季銷售將成長，可能需要營運資金進一步上升。資本支出持續反映我們在 Pesqueria 工業中心擴建的進展，目前主要聚焦於板坯製造設施的建設。

Finally, we ended the quarter with a net cash position of $327 million. On top of our CapEx needs, the cash position decline included a $350 million payment for acquisition of Usiminas shares from Nippon Steel, partially offset by $150 million loan collection from Techgen, our nonconsolidated energy joint venture that supplies power to our operations in Mexico.

最後，我們在本季結束時的淨現金部位為 3.27 億美元。除了資本支出需求之外，現金部位下降亦包含向日本製鐵支付 3.5 億美元以收購 Usiminas 股份；部分則由向 Techgen 收回 1.5 億美元貸款所抵銷。Techgen 是我們未合併的能源合資企業，為我們在墨西哥的營運供電。

Okay. This concludes our prepared remarks for the first quarter. We will now be happy to take your questions. Thanks, and please proceed with the Q&A session.

好的。以上為我們第一季的預先準備發言。接下來我們很樂意回答各位的提問。謝謝，請開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Mr. Rodolfo Angele, JPMorgan.

（接線員指示）JPMorgan 的 Rodolfo Angele 先生。

Okay. So I wanted to just hear your thoughts on two aspects that I think are relevant for Ternium's future performance. So first, there's been a lot of discussion on USMCA. So if you could share your thoughts on what happens there and what it means in terms of different scenarios for the company's performance?

好的。我想聽聽你們對兩個我認為與 Ternium 未來表現相關面向的看法。首先，關於《美墨加協定》（USMCA）有很多討論。因此，如果你們能分享對那邊可能發生什麼、以及在不同情境下對公司表現意味著什麼的看法？

And I also wanted to hear from you a little bit about the expectations for the slab market in terms of pricing outlook for the remainder of the year, especially. And that's all.

另外我也想請教你們，對板坯市場的預期，特別是今年剩餘時間的價格展望。以上。

Thank you, Rodolfo. Let me start with the USMCA question. And as you know, there have been a lot of discussion and talks about USMCA. Look, I believe that there will be a trade -- a deal between US and Mexico. And as you know, the US administration through the USTR and the Mexican government through the Ministry -- or Secretary of Economy holding meetings. There is a formal meeting on May 25, which is going to start formally the revision -- or the discussions of the USMCA. Most of that discussions are probably going to be on discussing mainly stricter rule of origin and some other issues that have arisen. And I think my thoughts on this is that this is going to take some time. So I am positive, there is going to be an agreement. But I don't know exactly the timeline, probably won't be by July 1 and probably would get most of this year. So this is, I mean, the -- my thoughts of what is happening in the USMCA.

謝謝你，Rodolfo。我先從 USMCA 的問題開始。如你所知，關於 USMCA 已有很多討論與會談。我認為美國與墨西哥之間會達成一項貿易——協議。如你所知，美國政府透過美國貿易代表署（USTR），以及墨西哥政府透過經濟部——或經濟部長，正在進行會議。5 月 25 日有一場正式會議，將正式啟動對 USMCA 的檢視——或討論。多數討論可能主要聚焦於更嚴格的原產地規則，以及其他已浮現的議題。我認為這需要一些時間。所以我持正面看法，會有協議。但我不確定確切時程，可能不會在 7 月 1 日之前，可能會延續到今年大部分時間。以上就是——我對 USMCA 目前情況的看法。

There's also some discussions going on, on the Section 232. As you know, I don't think -- my thoughts is, and I always said, there is no -- there's incomparability between Section 232 and USMCA. It doesn't make sense, makes Mexico subject to 232 in steel as the US has a steel trade surplus -- a very big steel trade surplus with Mexico. I know the Mexican administration has also stated that there is a priority while the USMCA negotiate that there has to be a relief in steel and automotive Section 232. And I know they are discussing this during the following weeks. Nevertheless, I think it's important that the Mexican administration, as I said a little bit in my remarks, Rodolfo, has been very proactive in launching initiatives to strengthen the steel consumption in Mexico.

另外，關於第232條款也有一些討論正在進行中。如你所知，我認為——我的想法是，而且我一直都說，第232條款與《美墨加協定》(USMCA)之間並不存在——兩者沒有可比性。這沒有道理，讓墨西哥在鋼鐵上受制於232，因為美國對墨西哥的鋼鐵貿易是順差——而且是非常大的鋼鐵貿易順差。我知道墨西哥政府也表示，在USMCA談判期間有一項優先事項，就是鋼鐵與汽車相關的第232條款必須獲得緩解。我也知道他們會在接下來幾週討論這件事。不過，我認為很重要的是，正如我在發言中稍微提到的，Rodolfo，墨西哥政府在推出各項倡議、強化墨西哥的鋼鐵消費方面一直非常積極。

While all this is going on, the Plan Mexico, the target measures against unfair competition, the imposition of tariffs for countries that don't have trade agreement with Mexico, all this -- I think it's a very active way of the Mexican government to attack the problems of the Mexican economy, while these two things are negotiated. So in the end, I think USMCA, as I said, is going to be renewed probably with much tougher rule of origin, which I think is a very good thing. But I'm not that certain on the timing. Probably the timing -- it takes a little bit more longer. So I hope with this large answer, I did answer your question, Rodolfo.

在這一切進行的同時，「墨西哥計畫」(Plan Mexico)、針對不公平競爭的目標性措施、對未與墨西哥簽訂貿易協定的國家加徵關稅——所有這些——我認為都是墨西哥政府在這兩件事談判期間，以非常積極的方式來處理墨西哥經濟問題。所以最後，我認為USMCA，如我所說，可能會續約，但原產地規則可能會嚴格得多，我覺得這是非常好的事情。但我對時間點沒有那麼確定。可能時間——會再久一點。所以我希望用這個比較長的回答，已經回答了你的問題，Rodolfo。

Yes, you did.

是的，你回答到了。

The slab market, what did you refer with the slab market?

你提到的板坯市場（slab market）是指什麼？

It's just a market that -- I think it's more unique overall in terms of how pricing dynamics work. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what do you see, especially on pricing, what do you expect for the coming quarters?

它就是一個市場——我認為就定價動態如何運作而言，整體上更為獨特。所以我想聽聽你的看法，特別是在價格方面，你對接下來幾個季度有什麼預期？

Prices, as it has been in most of steel products, has been increasing recently. Clearly, the increase in fuel increases the logistics for slabs. And also, there has been some increase in iron ore and in other raw materials, which have made the slab market a little bit more expensive. I mean, from all our production -- our buying of slab is not as big as it used to be because most of the slabs come from our Ternium Brazil facility. But nevertheless, we are buying in the market, and we are seeing some increase in that. It's compensated probably with the increase in prices in finishing products also.

價格方面，和大多數鋼鐵產品一樣，最近一直在上升。很明顯，燃料上漲提高了板坯的物流成本。此外，鐵礦石以及其他原材料也有所上漲，使得板坯市場變得更貴了一些。我的意思是，就我們整體產量而言——我們購買板坯的量已不像以前那麼大，因為大部分板坯來自我們的Ternium巴西廠。但不管怎樣，我們仍然在市場上採購，也確實看到一些上漲。這大概也被成品價格的上漲所抵消。

Mrs. Timna Tanners, Wells Fargo Securities.

Wells Fargo Securities 的 Timna Tanners 女士。

So I wanted to ask, if I could, about a few things. One is to follow up on the USMCA discussions. The US government is more interested in granting relief on tariffs if there is a construction of production in the US. So just wondering if you would expand your US presence.

我想問幾件事，如果可以的話。第一個是跟進USMCA的討論。美國政府更有興趣在美國境內有生產建置的情況下，才給予關稅減免。所以想請問你們是否會擴大在美國的布局？

Also wondering along those same lines about -- hearing about a Mexican dumping case against US galvanized imports. If you could address those?

另外也想沿著同樣的方向問——我聽說墨西哥對美國進口的鍍鋅產品有一宗傾銷案件。你能否回應一下？

Timna, we are not thinking in making some production or increased production in the US now. We don't have that as a plan today. And second, there is a dumping case against cold rolling products. There's no dumping case against galvanized in Mexico, at least in the US. There is a dumping case in galvanized against Vietnam and I think other countries.

Timna，我們目前沒有在美國新增生產或提高產量的想法。今天我們沒有這樣的計畫。第二，確實有一宗針對冷軋產品的傾銷案件。在墨西哥並沒有針對鍍鋅產品的傾銷案件，至少不是針對美國。倒是有一宗針對鍍鋅產品、對越南以及我想還有其他國家的傾銷案件。

Okay. I heard that Mexico was working on one against the US. I thought that could be positive for your operations. So we'll stay tuned there.

了解。我聽說墨西哥正在針對美國推動一宗。我以為那可能對你們的營運是正面的。所以我們會持續關注。

Second, can you expand a bit more on the mention of electrical steel -- sorry, EAF capabilities to make exposed automotive and remind us what might be the time frame for doing that?

第二個問題，你能否再多談一點你提到的電工鋼——抱歉，是指電弧爐（EAF）具備生產外露級汽車用鋼的能力，並提醒我們大概的時間表會是什麼？

Yes, for sure. I mean, as you probably remember, the steel shop, it's going to start the ramp-up in the last quarter of -- between the last quarter of this year and early next year. As you know, the operation, it's -- I mean, the facility is huge. I hope all of you can one day visit it because it's worth visiting the facility. So the ramp-up facility -- the ramp-up curve should take at least all 2027.

好的，當然可以。我的意思是，如你可能記得，煉鋼廠將在今年第四季末到明年初之間開始爬坡。如你所知，這個營運——我的意思是，這個設施非常龐大。我希望你們有一天都能去參觀，因為非常值得一看。所以這個設施的爬坡——爬坡曲線至少會涵蓋整個2027年。

In the meantime, during all this ramp-up, we are going to work with the automotive customers to certify our products, certification process for all automotive products. Not only the exposed material, but also all the other parts of the car need certification. But we are working very close with all of them because they are very eager to accelerate the certification process. And so, we are working already with them on how to accelerate the certification process as much as possible.

同時，在整個爬坡期間，我們會與汽車客戶合作，對我們的產品進行認證，也就是所有汽車產品的認證流程。不只是外露材，車上其他所有部件也都需要認證。但我們與他們合作得非常緊密，因為他們非常希望加速認證流程。因此，我們已經在和他們一起研究如何盡可能加快認證流程。

We have recently increased the capacity of our Ternium Lab in Pesqueria, which we are working -- certifying all the lab equipment, so we can certify part of the process they need in that site. And I mean, the capacity that this EAF is going to have to have, the capacity of producing exposed material in a sustainable way and in a continuous way is going to be unique because of the process we are doing and all the patents we are developing, especially to decrease all the nitrogen that the EAFs usually have. So this is a unique process that we are developing with our technical people and the supplier of equipment that is Tenova, some sister company of us. So I mean, again, the timing should be around next year, probably by the third and fourth quarter of next year, that we are going to supply in a sustainable way to the automotive industry.

我們最近提升了位於Pesqueria的Ternium實驗室產能；我們正在——對所有實驗室設備進行認證，這樣我們就能在該據點完成他們所需流程的一部分認證。而且，我的意思是，這座EAF需要具備的能力——以可持續且連續的方式生產外露材的能力——將會是獨一無二的，因為我們正在採用的製程以及我們正在開發的所有專利，特別是為了降低EAF通常會有的氮含量。所以這是一個我們與技術團隊以及設備供應商Tenova（我們的姊妹公司）共同開發的獨特製程。所以我的意思是，再次強調，時間點大概會在明年，可能到明年第三、第四季，我們就能以可持續的方式向汽車產業供應。

So it'll be qualified for 2028 or qualified for 2027?

所以會是在2028年完成資格認證，還是2027年完成資格認證？

No. The idea is to qualify everything for 2028.

不是。我們的想法是把所有項目的資格認證都放在2028年完成。

Mr. Alfonso Salazar, Scotiabank.

Scotiabank 的 Alfonso Salazar 先生。

A couple of questions from my end. The first one is regarding the outlook in Argentina. I want to see if you can give us more color on what's going on and what are your expectations for future demand. Also trying to understand better what's the situation regarding imports. It seems to be more problematic than in the past. And also exports from Argentina to other Latin American countries, what is the outlook there because of the same thing, imports from -- to other countries from Asia?

我這邊有幾個問題。第一個是關於阿根廷的展望。我想看看你是否能提供更多背景，說明目前發生了什麼，以及你對未來需求的預期。我也想更了解進口方面的情況。看起來比過去更棘手。另外，阿根廷對其他拉丁美洲國家的出口展望如何？因為同樣的問題——其他國家從亞洲進口的情況？

The second question is, some comments on the decarbonization trends in Latin America, it seems that -- we always knew that it was going to take longer than Europe. But any comment on what is the outlook there as well, these trends of decarbonization and green steel?

第二個問題是，關於拉丁美洲去碳化趨勢的一些看法；看起來——我們一直都知道它會比歐洲花更長時間。但也請評論一下那邊的展望，以及這些去碳化與綠色鋼鐵的趨勢？

Yes. Thank you, Alfonso. So outlook in Argentina, I mean, in the short term, shipments in the second quarter are going to increase because, as you know, the first quarter in Argentina is always a seasonably low quarter. January and February usually are holidays in Argentina. So the demand is quite -- then further down the road, I think, some of the sectors present a good opportunity, mining, oil and gas, and agriculture. They are compensated by others like mechanical goods and like electrical and white goods, sorry. That demand is not very good in the final goods. So it's going to be a little bit better, but we don't expect a huge growth compared to 2025.

是的。謝謝你，Alfonso。就阿根廷的展望而言，我的意思是，短期內第二季出貨量會增加，因為如你所知，阿根廷第一季一向是季節性偏低的一季。一月和二月在阿根廷通常是假期。所以需求相當——再往後看，我認為有些產業部門提供了不錯的機會：礦業、油氣，以及農業。但也會被其他部門所抵銷，例如機械產品，以及電器與白色家電，抱歉。終端產品的需求並不是很好。因此會稍微好一些，但我們不預期相較於2025年會有很大的成長。

Imports, although there have been a lot of talks about imports, we are not seeing imports in our products. We have seen some imports in the value chains, but these are stable today. I think the problem in our value chains is that the demand or the consumption is not very good. So that's the situation we have in Argentina.

進口方面，雖然市場上談了很多進口，但我們在自家產品上並沒有看到進口。我們在價值鏈中看到一些進口，但目前是穩定的。我認為我們價值鏈的問題在於需求或消費並不是很好。這就是我們在阿根廷所面臨的情況。

Decarbonization in Latin America, you're seeing the path is slower than in Europe. I think the pace in Europe has also decreased a lot. I mean, there's a lot of projects that have been announced in Europe that today are not going through, and they continue building up in blast furnace.

拉丁美洲的去碳化，你看到的路徑確實比歐洲慢。我認為歐洲的步伐也已經放慢很多。我的意思是，歐洲宣布了很多專案，但今天並沒有推進，反而仍持續在高爐上擴建。

In Latin America, I can say two things. I think one, there is increasing -- in Mexico, where you have the opportunity to change from coal to natural gas. So Mexico will continue on a path of having probably the lowest steel production emissions per ton of production of probably the world. And in Brazil, there's more difficulty to change blast furnace. So the decarbonization there is going to go through -- by small decreases by efficiency, but still working with blast furnace.

在拉丁美洲，我可以說兩點。第一，我認為在墨西哥，正在增加——你有機會把燃煤改為天然氣。因此墨西哥將持續走在一條路徑上，可能會擁有全球最低的每噸鋼產量排放之一。而在巴西，更難改變高爐。所以那裡的去碳化將會透過——以效率提升帶來小幅下降，但仍然以高爐運作。

And the outlook for other Latin American countries, demand in other countries that you source from Argentina?

那其他拉丁美洲國家的展望呢？也就是你們從阿根廷供應的其他國家的需求？

No. The regional countries, I mean, usually, they don't have a huge impact in the shipments. We continue to ship to Uruguay, Paraguay. Those are the countries that we ship from Argentina. But the consumption there is marginal. So it's not going to have a huge impact on our shipments.

沒有。區域內的國家，我的意思是，通常對出貨量不會有很大的影響。我們仍持續出貨到烏拉圭、巴拉圭。這些是我們從阿根廷出貨的國家。但那裡的消費量很有限。所以不會對我們的出貨造成很大的影響。

Mr. Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

Marcio Farid 先生，高盛。

Obviously, another follow-up on USMCA and Section 232. I think what's changed maybe this time is that obviously, Mexico has put some import barriers to steel coming into Mexico to try and reduce triangulation as well or rerouting. And I'm just wondering, right, once -- assuming Section 232 to Mexico is either removed or reduced, do you think the competitive environment would be different versus where we were a few years ago when we did not have those import barriers? And I remember well, I think in Mexico, import is about 40% of all the steel that you need. So just wondering if you can think about a structural change in terms of the competitive environment between North America, Mexico and the US.

顯然，還有一個關於USMCA與232條款的追問。我認為這次可能不同的是，顯然墨西哥已對進入墨西哥的鋼鐵設置了一些進口壁壘，試圖降低三角貿易或改道。我只是想問，一旦——假設對墨西哥的232條款被取消或降低，你認為競爭環境會不會不同於幾年前、當時我們還沒有這些進口壁壘的情況？而且我記得很清楚，我想在墨西哥，進口約占你所需鋼材的40%。所以想請你談談，北美、墨西哥與美國之間的競爭環境在結構上是否會出現變化。

And second point, demand was very weak in Mexico last year. I think it was down 10%. Part of the reason was, as you mentioned, destocking, but also weak activity as companies wait for better visibility on their relationship with the US. You mentioned restocking helped -- has been helping pricing. I'm just wondering if you're seeing demand or activity also recovering or we need to see a final agreement with the US for investments to really resume in Mexico. Those are my questions.

第二點，墨西哥去年的需求非常疲弱。我想下滑了10%。部分原因如你所提到的是去庫存，但也有活動疲弱，因為企業在等待與美國關係能有更清晰的能見度。你提到補庫存有助於——一直在支撐價格。我想問的是，你是否也看到需求或活動正在回升？還是我們需要看到與美國達成最終協議，投資才會真正恢復在墨西哥進行？以上是我的問題。

Thank you, Marcio. Yes, I mean, the first question about the triangulation and the efforts that the Mexican administration is doing to control this, I think there is already a structural change. I think the Mexican administration, way before Trump was elected and all this discussion began, was very focused on increasing the value-added content of all what is produced in Mexico. I mean, Mexico was a huge exporter, but the value added of those products, the regional content of those products were not very high. The Plan Mexico, which President Sheinbaum already announced in the campaign, in her campaign, was a plan for doing exactly this, for changing this dynamic.

謝謝你，Marcio。是的，關於第一個問題——三角貿易以及墨西哥政府為控制此事所做的努力——我認為已經出現結構性改變。我認為墨西哥政府在川普當選之前、以及所有這些討論開始之前，就非常專注於提高在墨西哥生產的一切產品的附加價值含量。我的意思是，墨西哥是出口大國，但那些產品的附加價值、區域內容比重並不高。「墨西哥計畫」（Plan Mexico），Sheinbaum 總統在競選期間就已宣布，正是一個要做到這點、改變這種動態的計畫。

So all the things that the Mexican administration is doing, as you mentioned, are a way of decreasing the dependency of Asian products, especially in those products that Mexico or the region is able to produce. The clear example of that is steel. So I think there is already a structural change. And probably this is going to be even better once the 232, as you said, is reduced or removed from the site between Mexico and the US. So clearly, you are correct in your assessment.

因此，正如你提到的，墨西哥政府正在做的所有事情，都是在降低對亞洲產品的依賴，特別是在墨西哥或本區域有能力生產的那些產品上。最明顯的例子就是鋼鐵。所以我認為結構性改變已經發生。而且一旦你所說的232條款在墨西哥與美國之間被降低或取消，情況可能會更好。所以很明顯，你的判斷是正確的。

There is a demand -- regarding the second question, Marcio, there is a demand increase in Mexico. It's not as high. We are -- well, World Steel has just released that the demand in Mexico is going to grow around 4% in the year. Considering that the demand decreased by 10%, as you said, in 2025, it's not a huge increase, but it is an increase, and we are seeing some recovery in demand. I expect that this is going to be higher once the USMCA -- or where the USMCA is going is more clear. We are seeing this increase at least in a small space, but we are seeing it today. I hope that answered the question, Marcio.

關於第二個問題，Marcio，墨西哥的需求確實在增加。但幅度沒有那麼大。我們——嗯，世界鋼鐵協會剛發布，墨西哥今年的需求將成長約4%。考量到你所說的2025年需求下滑了10%，這不是很大的增幅，但確實是成長，我們也看到需求正在一些程度上復甦。我預期一旦USMCA——或USMCA的走向——更清楚之後，這個增幅會更高。我們至少在小範圍內看到這個增加，但今天確實看得到。希望這回答了你的問題，Marcio。

Yes, for sure.

是的，當然。

Mr. Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

Rafael Barcellos 先生，Bradesco BBI。

So first question, last week, the Mexican government signed an agreement, which I believe they called as an agreement for the promotion of the Mexican steel industry, right? And so, I just wanted to understand, I mean, when do you expect that these measures will finally translate into incremental demand for the country? And what else you think the government can promote to incentivize the sector in the short term?

第一個問題，上週墨西哥政府簽署了一項協議，我相信他們稱之為促進墨西哥鋼鐵產業的協議，對吧？所以我想了解的是，你預期這些措施何時會最終轉化為該國的增量需求？以及你認為政府在短期內還能推動什麼來激勵這個產業？

And as a second question, in your outlook, you mentioned a bit of the cost pressure that we have seen for all industries, and I understand that steel is not an exception. But if you can elaborate a bit more on what we can expect for cost in the third Q, for example, it could be helpful.

作為第二個問題，在您的展望中，您提到了一些我們在各行各業都看到的成本壓力，我理解鋼鐵業也不例外。但如果您能再多闡述一下我們在第三季的成本可能會看到什麼，例如，這會很有幫助。

Thank you, Rafael. Well, the agreement in Mexico, as I said, is an agreement between the government and the steel industry of Mexico to commit that most -- that all of the government use of steel is used -- Mexican steel is used in those infrastructure -- main infrastructure. I think it's very important because there was already a commitment to use Mexican steel. But in some cases, especially all this new infrastructure that is coming by Pemex, by CFE, that is the electricity company, that our investment -- joint investment between public and private sectors, this is going to be -- it's going to be an impact in the demand of steel, especially with all the investment in gas lines, in renewable energy, solar and wind. It has a huge consumption of steel. So it is important in that sense. I don't expect the investments to start in the next quarter or the following. But I think that by year-end, all this effort that the government is doing will have an impact in demand. Too early to say how much, but it's going to have an impact.

謝謝你，Rafael。嗯，墨西哥的協議，如我所說，是政府與墨西哥鋼鐵產業之間的協議，承諾政府使用鋼材時——也就是政府所有用鋼——在那些基礎建設——主要基礎建設中使用墨西哥鋼材。我認為這非常重要，因為原本就已經有使用墨西哥鋼材的承諾。但在某些情況下，特別是Pemex、CFE（電力公司）推動的所有這些新基礎建設，以及我們的投資——公私部門的共同投資——這將會——將會對鋼材需求產生影響，尤其是所有在天然氣管線、再生能源、太陽能與風能方面的投資。這些都會大量消耗鋼材。所以在這個意義上很重要。我不預期投資會在下一季或再下一季就開始。但我認為到年底，政府正在做的所有這些努力將會對需求產生影響。現在說影響有多大還太早，但它會帶來影響。

The second question, sorry?

第二個問題，不好意思？

Cost.

成本。

The cost. Well, I mean, it's going to be an impact in cost. But for Ternium, it's not going to be a huge impact. The big impact is going to be in logistics and import of some slabs and some logistic costs in Brazil and probably in Argentina. But it's -- probably, that is going to compensate, as we said in the outlook, by also the price increases. I think that the real risk, let me say, of the conflict in the Middle East is that if it's not resolved quickly, it could cost more a recession. So we are thinking that, that's the real risk for us. We see a little bit increase in cost, but again, more than compensated by the increase the prices of steel are having.

成本。嗯，我的意思是，成本會受到影響。但對Ternium來說，不會是很大的影響。最大的影響會在物流，以及進口部分板胚（slabs），還有巴西以及可能在阿根廷的一些物流成本。但——如我們在展望中所說，這些可能會被價格上漲所抵銷。我認為，讓我說，真正的風險在於中東衝突：如果不能快速解決，可能會使經濟衰退的代價更高。所以我們認為那才是我們真正的風險。我們看到成本小幅上升，但同樣地，鋼價上漲帶來的補償遠大於成本上升。

As a follow-up, sorry, can you just elaborate on what you're seeing as for cost trends in the third Q? And on the price side, I understand that prices are outpacing the cost increase. But can you just help us understand, in your view, what is the main driver for this recent good price momentum that we are seeing in Mexico?

作為追問，不好意思，您能否再說明一下您看到第三季的成本趨勢是什麼？在價格方面，我理解價格上漲速度快於成本上升。但您能否幫我們理解一下，以您的看法，近期我們在墨西哥看到的這波良好價格動能，主要驅動因素是什麼？

Well, the good momentum, I think it's everywhere. You see, in Europe, prices increasing. You see in Brazil. You even see, in China, prices increasing. So I think part of that is motivated by the increase of cost, which is bigger than increase in Southeast Asia and is bigger in Europe than it is in the Americas. So I think that's the motivation, Rafael.

嗯，我認為這股良好動能到處都是。你看，歐洲價格在上漲。你看巴西也是。甚至你看中國，價格也在上漲。所以我認為其中一部分是由成本上升所驅動；而且相較之下，東南亞的成本上升更大，歐洲也比美洲更大。所以我想這就是動機，Rafael。

Mr. Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

美國銀行的Caio Ribeiro先生。

So I have two questions linked to your investments at Pesqueria. So first off, as you complete your upstream investments this year, what are some of the investment avenues that you're contemplating right now? Where does the MUSA expansion fit in within your list of priorities?

我有兩個問題，與你們在Pesqueria的投資相關。首先，當你們今年完成上游投資後，目前正在考慮哪些投資方向？MUSA擴產在你們的優先順序清單中處於什麼位置？

And then, secondly, assuming that you don't greenlight another investment right away or a large investment like the Pesqueria upstream, downstream investments that you've done in the past years, those CapEx figures, they should drop considerably versus your recent run rate, which, together with that earnings increase that you get from your investments, should drive significantly higher free cash flow generation in the coming years, right? So with that in mind, just wondering how you think about dividend payments going forward? Is there room in your view to boost those to cover a larger part of that positive free cash flow generation that you should have in the coming years? Those are my questions.

第二，假設你們不會立刻核准另一項投資，或像Pesqueria上游、以及你們過去幾年做過的下游投資那樣的大型投資，那麼你們的資本支出（CapEx）相較於近期的水準應該會大幅下降；再加上投資帶來的獲利提升，未來幾年應該會顯著推升自由現金流的產生，對嗎？在此背景下，我想請教你們如何看待未來的股利發放？以你的觀點，是否有空間提高股利，使其能涵蓋你們未來幾年應該會有的較大部分正向自由現金流？以上是我的問題。

Thank you, Caio. Well, yes, the upstream investment, as you know, will -- as I said before, we will start the ramp-up curve by the end of the year or early next year. But I mean, we are still -- but it's still a long way to go. Today, the big investment that, as you say, we are analyzing is the expansion of MUSA. Usiminas has continued to analyze the different alternatives we have regarding CapEx and the cost of production and the material that we can take on each one of these alternatives. And by the end of the year or early next year, we have to take a decision -- or we will have a decision on where to go on that.

謝謝你，Caio。嗯，是的，上游投資如你所知將——如我先前所說，我們會在年底或明年初開始進入爬坡（ramp-up）曲線。但我的意思是，我們仍然——但還有很長的路要走。目前如你所說，我們正在分析的重大投資是MUSA的擴產。Usiminas持續在分析我們在資本支出（CapEx）、生產成本，以及在每一個替代方案下我們能取得的原料等方面的不同選項。到今年底或明年初，我們必須做出決定——或者我們將會有一個決定，確定要往哪個方向走。

Those are so far the investments we are considering. I mean, we are not seeing yet a necessity or, I mean, the willingness to make another large investment so close as to bring in heavier project online. So yes, CapEx is going to decrease. As you remember, 2025, we have $2.5 billion of CapEx. This year, it's going to be lower than that -- much lower than that. Probably in 2027, it's going to be even lower, around $1.2 billion or $1 billion.

到目前為止，這些就是我們正在考慮的投資。我的意思是，我們還沒有看到必要性，或者說——我指的是——沒有意願在這麼短的時間內再做另一個大型投資，把更重大的專案上線。所以是的，資本支出會下降。如你記得，2025年我們的資本支出是25億美元。今年會低於那個水準——遠低於那個水準。可能到2027年會更低，大約12億美元或10億美元左右。

So yes -- and I mean, regarding the dividend, if the numbers improve and we have generation, as you know, we have a track record that the dividend -- our dividend has a very good yield, although we decreased a little bit the dividend -- or the Board decided to decrease a little bit the dividend because of the uncertainty, which I completely agree. Still, the yield dividend with the price of Ternium's ADS today, it's around 5%. So we will probably continue with this policy of taking a good dividend.

所以是的——至於股利，如果數字改善、我們有現金產生，如你所知，我們有一個紀錄：股利——我們的股利殖利率一直很不錯，儘管我們稍微降低了股利——或者董事會因為不確定性而決定稍微降低股利，我完全同意。即便如此，以目前Ternium的ADS價格來看，股利殖利率大約在5%左右。所以我們可能會繼續維持這項發放良好股利的政策。

Mr. Caio Greiner, UBS.

瑞銀的Caio Greiner先生。

Two questions. The first one on Brazil. I wanted to hear your thoughts on the strategy that the company has following the recent antidumping duties implementation for the operations that you have there, especially at Usiminas. I wanted to know if you're going to favor, over the next few quarters and maybe even years, higher prices, higher profitability, value over volume, somewhat of what we saw during the first quarter? Or if the strategy is going to be more in the sense of gaining market share, expanding volumes? And if that's the case, I wanted to know how much do you see in terms of volume gain potential over the next, again, quarters and years, and if you believe that you have enough capacity for this amount of volumes that you could increase going forward? And if you don't, what will be the strategy there? Relighting blast furnace, could it be on the pipeline? Or is that more in the sense of just purchasing more shares and raising capacity utilization?

兩個問題。第一個關於巴西。我想聽聽你對公司在近期反傾銷稅實施後，對你們在當地的營運（特別是Usiminas）的策略看法。我想知道，未來幾季甚至可能未來幾年，你們是否會更偏向較高價格、較高獲利能力、重價值而非重數量，有點像我們在第一季看到的那樣？或者策略會更偏向於提升市占率、擴大出貨量？如果是後者，我想知道你們對未來幾季、幾年在出貨量提升方面的潛力預期有多少，以及你們是否認為現有產能足以支撐未來可能增加的這些出貨量？如果不夠，那麼策略會是什麼？重新點火高爐（blast furnace）是否可能在規劃中？或者更偏向於只是購買更多股份並提高產能利用率？

And the second one, just a follow-up to the previous capital allocation question. Maximo, you mentioned that you don't have plans of doing another large CapEx project while you still have the MUSA investment. But could you still maybe -- could it be on the pipeline to, again, perform corporate simplification measures, more bottom-up or in-house initiatives like the Usiminas stake that you acquired during the first quarter or anything related to Argentina? That would be very, very helpful.

第二個問題，算是延續前一個關於資本配置的提問。Maximo，你提到在仍持有 MUSA 投資的情況下，沒有再做另一個大型資本支出（CapEx）專案的計畫。但是否仍有可能——是否可能在管線中，再次推動公司簡化措施，更偏自下而上或內部推動的舉措，例如你們在第一季收購的 Usiminas 持股，或任何與阿根廷相關的事項？這會非常、非常有幫助。

Thank you, Caio. The first one, I mean, if we have to choose between the two strategies you said, probably it's the first one. And we don't want to produce more in order to sell something that the market doesn't need. And so, we are going to start to -- we will always prefer the first strategy. It's clear that with all the measures that the Brazilian government is taking -- as I said, Brazil is kind of a little bit late. I mean, Mexico, US, Canada, Europe, even India are taking measures a little bit more quickly than Brazil. But nevertheless, the trade measures in Brazil, it's a very good first step in the very right direction. So if unfair trade comes down, probably it will increase also volume. But we are very -- going to be very cautious.

謝謝你，Caio。第一個問題，我是說，如果要在你提到的兩種策略之間做選擇，可能會是第一種。我們不想為了賣出市場不需要的產品而增加產量。因此，我們將開始——我們會一向更偏好第一種策略。很明顯，隨著巴西政府正在採取的所有措施——如我所說，巴西有點稍微落後。我的意思是，墨西哥、美國、加拿大、歐洲，甚至印度採取措施都比巴西更快一些。但即便如此，巴西的貿易措施仍是朝著正確方向邁出的非常好的第一步。所以如果不公平貿易下降，量可能也會增加。但我們會非常——會非常謹慎。

Regarding our capital allocation, Pablo?

關於我們的資本配置，Pablo？

Thanks for letting me answer one question. So yes, regarding capital allocation and following on what Maximo said before, we are in the middle of a huge capital allocation structure, taking into consideration the rest of the capital expenditure in the facility in Mexico with the dividend payment and with the capital -- working capital increase because of the increasing volumes and decreasing prices that we saw. This year, as you know, we will be moving from a net cash position to a net debt position. And next year, you are totally right that we will be reducing the level of CapEx, but we will be sustaining probably the other outflows of capital. This could lead to an increase on our position, our cash position, which is not bad and will prepare us for any opportunity that may appear in the market.

謝謝讓我回答這個問題。所以是的，關於資本配置，並延續 Maximo 先前所說，我們正處於一個龐大的資本配置架構之中，會把墨西哥廠區剩餘的資本支出、股利支付，以及因我們看到的出貨量增加與價格下降而導致的營運資金增加納入考量。今年，如你所知，我們將從淨現金部位轉為淨負債部位。而明年，你完全正確，我們會降低 CapEx 水準，但我們可能仍會維持其他資金流出。這可能會使我們的部位——我們的現金部位增加，這並不壞，並將讓我們為市場上可能出現的任何機會做好準備。

Among these opportunities, you know that we have talked a lot in the past and we have worked a lot in order to simplify our corporate structure, and this is on our list of priorities. And if there is an opportunity to move in that direction, clearly something that we need to fully analyze and to carefully analyze because it's not that you have an opportunity and you can take it immediately. You need to do all the calculations in order to see the best way to proceed. With that, as Maximo already explained, continuing with the dividend is a policy that we have. And if there are opportunities to improve that, if the numbers reflect it, it's something that we will consider.

在這些機會之中，你知道我們過去談了很多、也做了很多工作以簡化我們的公司架構，這是我們的優先事項之一。如果有機會朝這個方向推進，顯然這是我們需要完整分析、並且審慎分析的事情，因為不是有機會就能立刻把握。你需要做所有的計算，以找出最佳的推進方式。此外，如 Maximo 已經解釋過，持續配發股利是我們的一項政策。如果有機會改善，而數字也反映出來，這是我們會考慮的事情。

Additionally to that, we take -- if you want some rest -- our analyzing the next CapEx plan -- internal CapEx plan because the effort that we have to put in order to take this project to work is very significant. And as Maximo explained, we need to go through the ramp-up to certification. So this takes some time. That's why usually when we have this big CapEx plan, then we take at least one or two years to design the new ones. But as also was explained here, we still believe that Ternium has opportunities to grow in all our markets, especially in Mexico and in Brazil. So there will be opportunities for us to analyze, but it will take some time for us to analyze them and present it to you.

除此之外，我們也會——如果你想要一些補充——我們正在分析下一個 CapEx 計畫——內部的 CapEx 計畫，因為要讓這個專案運作起來，我們必須投入非常顯著的努力。而如 Maximo 所解釋，我們需要經歷從爬坡到認證的過程。所以這需要一些時間。這也是為什麼通常在有這種大型 CapEx 計畫之後，我們至少會花一到兩年來設計新的計畫。但如同這裡也提到的，我們仍然相信 Ternium 在所有市場都有成長機會，特別是在墨西哥與巴西。因此我們會有機會進行分析，但我們需要一些時間來分析並向各位提出。

Maybe just a follow-up to the first -- actually to the second one as well. So in terms of volume gains in Brazil, Maximo, you mentioned that if the unfair trade comes down, you should be able to increase volumes as well. Do you see the current capacity that you have in Brazil as enough for the volume gain that you could have for an expected market share gain? Or could you have -- think about an alternative of, again, relighting one of your blast furnaces there, think about maybe relighting or revamping Cubatao?

也許只是追問第一個——其實第二個也是。所以就巴西的量增而言，Maximo，你提到如果不公平貿易下降，你們也應該能提高出貨量。你是否認為目前在巴西的產能足以支撐你們因預期市占率提升而可能帶來的量增？或者你是否會——考慮另一種方案，例如再次點火你們那邊的一座高爐，或考慮讓 Cubatao 再次點火或進行改造升級？

Yes, Caio, I mean, today, we have spare capacity in Brazil, especially in the Cubatao plant. As you know, it's a plant that is not working at full capacity. And we will also have slabs available from our Ternium facility in Rio once -- we don't have to ship as much slabs to Ternium Mexico because of the new mill coming -- the upstream project coming online. So I mean, yes, we have capacity in Brazil to grow. And I think it will be enough, I mean, if imports go down in Brazil.

是的，Caio，我是說，以今天來看，我們在巴西有閒置產能，特別是在 Cubatao 廠。如你所知，那是一座沒有滿載運轉的工廠。而且，一旦——由於新軋機即將到來——上游專案上線後，我們不需要再把那麼多鋼胚運往 Ternium 墨西哥，我們也會從位於里約的 Ternium 設施取得可用的鋼胚。所以我的意思是，是的，我們在巴西有產能可以成長。而且我認為這會足夠——我是說，如果巴西的進口下降的話。

That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn it back over to Mr. Maximo Vedoya for closing remarks. Please, Mr. Maximo, you may proceed.

問答環節到此結束。我想把時間交回給 Maximo Vedoya 先生作結語。請 Maximo 先生，您可以開始。

Well, thank you very much all for joining us. We welcome, as usual, any feedback or additional questions that you have. In the meantime, have a great day. Bye.

好，非常感謝各位參與。我們一如既往地歡迎任何回饋或你們提出的其他問題。同時，祝各位有美好的一天。再見。

Ternium's conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a good day.

Ternium 的電話會議現在結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。各位現在可以掛線，祝各位有美好的一天。