Ternium SA (TX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Ternium second-quarter 2025 results conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to Sebastian Marti. Please go ahead, sir.

您好，歡迎參加 Ternium 2025 年第二季業績電話會議。請注意，本次通話正在錄音。現在我想把電話交給塞巴斯蒂安·馬蒂。先生，請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining us. My name is Sebastian Marti and I'm Ternium Global IR and Compliance Senior Director. Yesterday, we announced our financial results for the second quarter and the first half of 2025. This call is meant to provide additional context to that presentation. I'm joined today by Maximo Vedoya, Ternium's Chief Executive Officer and Pablo Brizzio, the company's Chief Financial Officer. We will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. After our prepared remarks, we will open up the floor to your questions.

早安，感謝您加入我們。我叫 Sebastian Marti，是 Ternium 全球投資者關係和合規高級總監。昨天，我們公佈了2025年第二季和上半年的財務表現。此次通話旨在為該演示提供更多背景資訊。今天與我一同出席的還有 Ternium 執行長 Maximo Vedoya 和公司財務長 Pablo Brizzio。我們將討論 Ternium 的經營環境與績效。在我們準備好發言之後，我們將開始回答大家的提問。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page 2 in today's webcast presentation. You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議包含前瞻性訊息，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有所不同。可能影響結果的因素包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中以及今天的網路廣播簡報的第 2 頁。您還會在昨天發布的新聞稿中找到與最直接可比較的 IFRS 指標相協調的非 IFRS 財務指標的任何引用。

With that, I will send the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

說完，我就把電話轉給維多亞先生。

Good morning and welcome to Ternium's conference call. In the second quarter of the year, we delivered an improved EBITDA relative to the first quarter. This better performance was mainly driven by high realized prices in Mexico and a relatively stable cost per tonne despite a slight dip in shipments. The operating environment remains uncertain and volatile, and our main markets are no strangers to these developments.

早安，歡迎參加 Ternium 的電話會議。今年第二季度，我們的 EBITDA 較第一季有所提高。這種較好的表現主要得益於墨西哥的高實際價格和每噸成本相對穩定，儘管出貨量略有下降。經營環境仍然不確定且不穩定，我們的主要市場對這些發展並不陌生。

In this context, our focus is on reducing cost to strengthen the competitiveness of our company. We are positive on the outcome of these initiatives and on the future of Ternium. In line with this, we are already anticipating a sequential improvement in EBITDA.

在此背景下，我們的重點是降低成本，以增強公司的競爭力。我們對這些舉措的成果以及 Ternium 的未來充滿信心。與此相符的是，我們已預期 EBITDA 將持續改善。

In the third quarter, we expect a slightly increasing shipments lead primarily by Mexico with the possibility of some additional support from Argentina and relatively stable volumes in Brazil. In Mexico, the business environment is currently marked by cautious, pending clearer information regarding US trade policy and the conclusion of ongoing tariff negotiations with the United States.

我們預計第三季的出貨量將略有增加，主要由墨西哥帶動，阿根廷可能會提供一些額外支持，巴西的出貨量則相對穩定。在墨西哥，目前的商業環境以謹慎為特點，等待有關美國貿易政策的更清晰資訊以及與美國正在進行的關稅談判的結束。

In response to this volatile environment, the Mexican government has taken some measures to increase domestic production defense against unfair trade practices, especially from Asian countries. These actions have recently contributed to some decrease in steel imports in Mexico, creating a more level playing field in local markets. This supports our expectations of higher achievements in Mexico in the third quarter.

為了因應這種動盪的環境，墨西哥政府採取了一些措施，加強國內生產防禦，以抵禦不公平貿易行為，特別是來自亞洲國家的不公平貿易行為。這些措施最近導致墨西哥鋼鐵進口量下降，為當地市場創造了更公平的競爭環境。這支持了我們對墨西哥第三季取得更高業績的預期。

I remain confident that ongoing negotiations between the US and Mexico will eventually yield a reasonable and mutually beneficial agreement. This conviction strengthens our commitment to the steady progress of our expansion project in Pesqueria, which continues as planned and serve as a cornerstone of our growth strategy.

我堅信，美國和墨西哥正在進行的談判最終將達成一項合理、互利的協議。這項信念堅定了我們穩步推動佩斯克里亞擴建計畫的承諾，該計畫將按計劃繼續進行，並成為我們成長策略的基石。

Unlike the recent developments in Mexico, the Brazilian steel market is facing significant challenges due to a surge of unfair imported steel. Imports continue to flow this market, undermining the competitiveness of local manufacturers and rising their margins. It is crucial, in our view, that the Brazilian government responds precisely to this unfair trade practice. The impact expands well beyond the steel industry, affecting the wider manufacturing sector and putting at risk investments, jobs and the long term stability of these industries. Concrete measures are urgently needed to defend Brazil's industrial base, ensure a level playing field, and foster a sustainable market environment. In this challenging context, Usiminas is actively working on its cost structure in order to improve its competitiveness.

與墨西哥近期的發展不同，巴西鋼鐵市場因不公平進口鋼鐵激增而面臨重大挑戰。進口產品持續湧入該市場，削弱了當地製造商的競爭力並提高了他們的利潤率。我們認為，巴西政府必須對這種不公平的貿易行為作出明確回應。其影響遠遠超出了鋼鐵業，波及更廣泛的製造業，並危及這些行業的投資、就業和長期穩定。迫切需要採取具體措施來捍衛巴西的工業基礎，確保公平的競爭環境，並培養可持續的市場環境。在這種充滿挑戰的環境下，Usiminas 正在積極改進其成本結構，以提高其競爭力。

Moving to Argentina, the country has experienced a significant increase in shipments during the second quarter, driven by seasonal factors as well as a gradually recovering macroeconomic environment. The automotive industry continues to operate at a healthy level of activities, and the agricultural machine sector is experiencing good demand. By contrast, the construction sector is not improving significantly and certain market segments such as home appliances and packaging are being affected by an increase in the imports of finishing goods.

轉向阿根廷，受季節性因素以及宏觀經濟環境逐漸復甦的推動，該國第二季出貨量大幅成長。汽車行業繼續保持健康的營運水平，農業機械行業需求良好。相較之下，建築業並沒有明顯改善，家用電器和包裝等某些細分市場正受到成品進口增加的影響。

In the face of ongoing uncertainty and volatility in global trade, we continue to focus on strengthening the operation efficiency and improving margins. Throughout 2025, we have concentrated our strategic approach to cost management, seeking opportunities to optimize turning production process and supply chain and eliminate inefficiencies.

面對全球貿易持續的不確定性和波動性，我們持續專注於加強營運效率和提高利潤率。在整個2025年，我們將集中策略方針進行成本管理，尋求機會優化車削生產流程和供應鏈並消除低效率。

Our competitive improvement plan centers on optimizing our logistic network to streamline transportation and reduce cost, improving our procurement through better supply negotiation and cost control, enhancing production facility process for a greater efficiency and boosting labor productivity by incorporating technology and innovation across our key production lines. These measures support our goal of strengthening profitability and fortifying our competitive position in a dynamic market environment.

我們的競爭改進計劃的核心是優化我們的物流網絡以簡化運輸並降低成本，透過更好的供應談判和成本控制來改善我們的採購，增強生產設施流程以提高效率，並透過在我們的主要生產線上融入技術和創新來提高勞動生產力。這些措施支持我們實現在動態市場環境中增強獲利能力和鞏固競爭地位的目標。

Before I wrap up my remarks, I would like to take a moment to highlight the release of our sustainable report, reaffirming our commitment to the creation of a long-term value throughout sustainable industrial development. The report details our efforts to advance environmental performance, foster social responsibility and promote transparency across our operations. I encourage you to review it for a comprehensive overview of Ternium's strategies supporting long term sustainability.

在結束演講之前，我想花點時間強調我們發布的永續發展報告，重申我們致力於透過永續工業發展創造長期價值的承諾。該報告詳細介紹了我們為提高環境績效、培養社會責任和促進營運透明度所做的努力。我鼓勵您閱讀它以全面了解 Ternium 支持長期永續發展的策略。

In conclusion, trade policy continues to evolve rapidly. We are seeing the United States adopt a more assertive approach in negotiating bilateral agreements and implementing targeted trade action. When this ship has introduced a high degree of volatility, we recognize the US government's intention to address predatory trade practices by many Asian countries, most notably China. And to work towards restoring fair competition across the region.

總之，貿易政策持續快速發展。我們看到美國在談判雙邊協議和實施有針對性的貿易行動方面採取了更積極的態度。當這艘船出現高度波動時，我們意識到美國政府有意解決許多亞洲國家（尤其是中國）的掠奪性貿易行為。並努力恢復整個地區的公平競爭。

Mexico shares its perspective and is following a similar path. Even in this uncertain environment, turning strong position in the region helps us face this challenge. I expect that our ongoing project and focus on improving operations will enable Ternium to adjust to market changes and reach our goals.

墨西哥也有同樣的看法，並且正在走類似的路。即使在這種不確定的環境中，在該地區保持強勢地位有助於我們應對這一挑戰。我希望我們正在進行的專案和對改善營運的關注將使 Ternium 能夠適應市場變化並實現我們的目標。

All right. This concludes my prepared remarks. Pablo, please go ahead with your comments about our performance last quarter.

好的。我的準備好的發言到此結束。帕布羅，請繼續評論我們上個季度的表現。

Thanks Maximo and thanks everybody for being here today with us in this call. So let's start looking at the webcast presentation for a closer look at the operational and financial performance of the company.

感謝馬克西莫，也感謝大家今天參加這次電話會議。因此，讓我們開始觀看網路廣播演示，以更深入地了解該公司的營運和財務表現。

Beginning on page 3, we note that turnings of the adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% in the second quarter. Mainly driven by stronger realized steel prices in Mexico, partially upset by slight increase in cost return. We expect this positive trend to continue into the third quarter, mainly supported by ongoing cost efficiency measures and operational improvements.

從第 3 頁開始，我們注意到第二季調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 25%。主要受墨西哥實際鋼鐵價格走高推動，但成本回報略有增加也對其產生了一定影響。我們預計這一積極趨勢將持續到第三季度，主要得益於持續的成本效率措施和營運改善。

Turning to the next page, net income for the second quarter of 2025 amounted to $259 million. These figures include a $40 million provision adjustments related to the ongoing litigation associated with the acquisition of the participation back in 2012. Their adjustment reflects both (inaudible) and the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar during the quarter.

翻到下一頁，2025年第二季的淨收入為2.59億美元。這些數字包括與 2012 年收購參與權相關的持續訴訟相關的 4,000 萬美元撥備調整。他們的調整反映了（聽不清楚）以及本季巴西雷亞爾兌美元的升值。

Adjusted net income, excluding this provision amounted to $299 million. This was mainly supported by a very operational performance and favorable deferred tax results. Due to a 7.5% revaluation of the Mexican peso during the period. On the other hand, we have a decline in net financial result primarily driven by the same Mexican foreign exchange fluctuation.

扣除此項準備金後的調整後淨收入為 2.99 億美元。這主要得益於出色的營運表現和有利的遞延稅項結果。由於墨西哥比索在此期間升值了7.5%。另一方面，我們的淨財務業績下降，主要原因是墨西哥外匯波動。

Now turning to page 5, let's review the performance of our three segments. During the quarter, shipments declined primarily in Mexico and the US. This was partially mitigated by higher volumes in our southern regions.

現在翻到第 5 頁，讓我們回顧一下三個部分的表現。本季度，主要墨西哥和美國的出貨量下降。由於我們南部地區的銷量增加，部分緩解了這種情況。

For the third quarter, we anticipate a mixed performance across our key markets. In Mexico, we expect some sequential growth in shipments, supported by rising, government measures aiming at curbing unfair trade practices.

對於第三季度，我們預期主要市場的表現將有好有壞。在墨西哥，我們預計出貨量將出現環比增長，這得益於政府為遏制不公平貿易行為而採取的一系列措施。

In contrast, Usiminas, in Brazil continues to face headwinds. The Brazilian market remains under pressure due to a sharp increase in unfair trade imports primarily from China, which is undermining local competitiveness and impacted demand. Meanwhile, in Argentina following strong increase in the second quarter, driven by seasonal demand and gradual macroeconomic improvement, we are expecting somewhat shipments to hold steady on the positive side.

相較之下，巴西的烏西米納斯繼續面臨阻力。巴西市場仍面臨壓力，因為主要來自中國的不公平貿易進口急劇增加，削弱了當地的競爭力並影響了需求。同時，在阿根廷，受季節性需求和宏觀經濟逐步改善的推動，第二季出口強勁成長，我們預期出口量將保持穩定。

Let's now turn to page 6 of the presentation. In the second quarter, there was an increase in average selling price, especially in Mexico, although this was offset by lower shipments. The margins improved, supported by the higher price with most impact from increased cost per tonne.

現在讓我們翻到簡報的第 6 頁。第二季度，平均售價有所上漲，尤其是在墨西哥，但這被出貨量下降所抵銷。利潤率有所提高，主要得益於價格上漲，其中每噸成本的增加對其影響最大。

Turning to the slide 7, we will now review the performance of our mining segment. Iron achievement goes quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased production levels. Despite these high volumes, let's say it remain broadly unchanged in the second quarter as lower rise iron ore prices offset volume gains. The segment margin slightly declined reflected the impact of weaker prices, although this was partially upset by lower operating costs.

轉到幻燈片 7，我們現在將回顧採礦部門的表現。受產量提高的推動，鐵礦石產量逐季成長。儘管產量很高，但由於鐵礦石價格下跌抵消了產量的成長，我們可以假設第二季產量基本上保持不變。該部門利潤率略有下降，反映出價格疲軟的影響，儘管這部分是由於營運成本降低所致。

Let's proceed to the final slide of the presentation to review our cash flow, performance, and balance sheet position. Cash flow operations in the second quarter total $1 billion aided by a significant reduction in working capital. This reflects our work on adjusting inventory volume as well as a decrease in trade receivables. In addition, a high level of CapEx contributed to an increase in commercial debt.

讓我們繼續觀看簡報的最後一張投影片，回顧一下我們的現金流量、績效和資產負債表狀況。由於營運資本大幅減少，第二季現金流營運總額達 10 億美元。這反映了我們在調整庫存量以及貿易應收款減少方面的工作。此外，高水準的資本支出導致商業債務增加。

CapEx increase this quarter as a result of ongoing expansion at the Pesqueria Industrial Center in Mexico. This trend is consistent with the project expenditure forecast which identified 2025 as the peak year for investments.

由於墨西哥佩斯克里亞工業中心的持續擴張，本季資本支出增加。這一趨勢與項目支出預測一致，該預測將 2025 年確定為投資高峰年。

Finally, the net cash position decreased in the second quarter, primarily as a result of daily rated CapEx level and the distribution of the $353 million dividend during the period. This was partly upset by the last operation cash flow generation and nevertheless, the cash position of the company continues to be (inaudible) totaling $1 billion at the end of June.

最後，第二季淨現金狀況下降，主要原因是每日評級的資本支出水準以及期間分配了 3.53 億美元的股息。這在一定程度上受到上次營運現金流產生的干擾，儘管如此，該公司的現金狀況在 6 月底仍然（聽不清楚）總計 10 億美元。

Okay, this also concludes my prepared remarks. We are ready now to take your questions. Please, operator, go ahead with the Q&A session. Thanks.

好的，我的準備演講也到此結束。我們現在準備好回答你們的提問。接線生，請繼續進行問答環節。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Caio Greiner, UBS.

（操作員指示） Caio Greiner，瑞銀。

So my first question on the state of supply -- steel supply in Mexico, can you guys elaborate a bit better on the supply picture in the country touching on two points. The first one, as you mentioned, Mexico's recent implementation of trade measures which eventually led to lower imports and the second one, ArcelorMittal reported an incident over the last few days at the steelworks which is supposed to impact 30% of their production.

所以我的第一個問題是關於供應狀況——墨西哥的鋼鐵供應，你們能否更詳細地闡述一下該國的供應情況，涉及兩點。第一個，正如您所說，墨西哥最近實施的貿易措施最終導致進口量下降；第二個，安賽樂米塔爾報告稱，過去幾天其鋼鐵廠發生了一起事故，預計將影響其 30% 的產量。

So touching on those two points, do you think that these are enough to rebalance steel markets in Mexico? To what extent are they actually going to help to supply them in picture, help to raise prices back to normalize levels, and is Ternium well-positioned to capture a higher market share from these two events?

那麼談到這兩點，您認為這些足以重新平衡墨西哥的鋼鐵市場嗎？它們實際上將在多大程度上幫助他們提供圖片，幫助將價格恢復到正常水平，並且 Ternium 是否能夠從這兩件事中佔據更高的市場份額？

The second question on the cost outlook that you've provided. You mentioned that you expected cost reduction to drive higher margins for the third quarter. Can you elaborate a bit more on those operational enhancement and cost reduction initiatives that you discussed? How much of the cost decline that you anticipate is coming from these bottom-up initiatives versus lower raw material costs. So we're seeing coal prices declining. We're seeing flat prices declining. So maybe break that down would be really helpful.

第二個問題是關於您提供的成本前景。您提到，您預計成本降低將推動第三季利潤率上升。您能否詳細說明您所討論的那些營運增強和成本削減措施？您預期成本下降有多少是來自於這些自下而上的措施而不是原物料成本的降低？因此我們看到煤炭價格正在下降。我們看到公寓價格正在下降。所以也許分解這一點會很有幫助。

And maybe if you could also quantify the level of cost reduction that we should expect into the third quarter. Thank you very much.

也許您還可以量化我們預期第三季的成本削減水準。非常感謝。

Okay, thank you, Caio. Let's start with the first one, Mexico. As you know, Mexico -- let me split it into -- one is the flat products. Flat products has an import -- around 40% of market share in Mexico is from imported steel. And as a part of consumption in Mexico decreased a little bit this year.

好的，謝謝你，Caio。我們先從第一個國家墨西哥開始。如你所知，墨西哥——讓我把它分成——一個是扁平產品。扁平材產品有進口－墨西哥約 40% 的市佔率來自進口鋼材。而今年墨西哥的消費量則略有下降。

And in the third part, with all the investment we have been doing and the increasing productivity, today, we have capacity to start gaining market share and it's what we are doing, and I think we are going to improve this in the following quarters that because of the lower imports and the effort -- for one side, the government is doing in this fighting unfair trade and on the other side, our own job in trying to be a good alternative for all these customers.

第三，透過我們一直以來的投資和生產力的提高，今天，我們有能力開始獲得市場份額，這就是我們正在做的事情，我認為我們將在接下來的幾個季度中改善這一點，因為進口量減少，而且我們一方面努力打擊不公平貿易，另一方面，我們也在努力成為所有客戶的良好選擇。

So I think from the flat side products, I think you are going to see an increase in market share. This is -- you're not going to see a huge increase in shipments because as I said, compared to last year, the consumption in Mexico because all the things we discussed is a little bit low.

因此我認為從平板產品來看，你會看到市場佔有率的成長。這是——你不會看到出貨量大幅增加，因為正如我所說，與去年相比，墨西哥的消費量（因為我們討論的所有事情）有點低。

Regarding ArcelorMittal, well, we just found out yesterday or Monday about the problem in ArcelorMittal. I don't know exactly what the problem is yet, but that is in the long products.

關於安賽樂米塔爾，我們昨天或週一才發現安賽樂米塔爾有這個問題。我還不知道具體問題是什麼，但那是在長產品中。

So yes, we are probably going to gain a little bit share while this problem arouse in the long product market. But as you know, long products, there are not a lot of imports in long products and there are several players in the long product market in Mexico. So that gain is going to be only marginal, I guess. But the gain is going to be in the flat products, which is our main market.

所以是的，當這個問題在長材市場出現時，我們可能會獲得一點份額。但如你所知，長材進口量並不多，而且墨西哥的長材市場有幾個參與者。所以我猜這種收益只是微不足道的。但收益將來自平板產品，這是我們的主要市場。

So that's for the first question. The second question, cost reduction. So additionally, to the decrease in, as you said, in iron ore and flat, we anticipate, I think in our Analyst Day in June that we are seeking an additional $300 million decrease in cost efficiency during the whole year. Part of that, we already have realized in the first quarter almost 1/3 of that. And 2/3 of that volume is going to be realized in these next two quarters. And this is several initiatives from our procurement front but expecting renegotiations and new suppliers, and enhanced control it's almost $70 million and improving through different initiatives, the stability in several of our processes is also $50 million.

這是第一個問題。第二個問題，降低成本。因此，此外，正如您所說，鐵礦石價格和庫存下降，我們預計，我認為在 6 月的分析師日，我們將尋求全年額外減少 3 億美元的成本效率。其中，我們在第一季已經實現了近三分之一。其中的 2/3 將在接下來的兩個季度內實現。這是我們採購方面的幾項舉措，但預計會進行重新談判並引入新供應商，並加強控制，這幾乎是 7000 萬美元，而且透過不同的舉措進行改進，我們幾個流程的穩定性也達到了 5000 萬美元。

A change in the supplier of metallic in the EIF, rebalancing, as you said, in Mexico, we are rebalancing the production and we are shutting some of the lines and improving productivity in other we decrease in cost. So there are several -- the wind farm in Argentina, which of course, is giving energy at a much lower cost than we used to. So all these in total at the $300 million we set besides the decrease in raw materials that you mentioned. I hope with this, Caio, it is clear, the numbers.

EIF 中的金屬供應商發生了變化，正如您所說，在墨西哥，我們正在重新平衡生產，關閉一些生產線並提高其他生產線的生產率，從而降低成本。阿根廷有好幾個風力發電場，當然，其發電成本比以前低得多。因此，除了您提到的原材料減少之外，我們總共設定了 3 億美元。我希望 Caio，這些數字能夠清晰地展現出來。

Yes, Maximo, thank you very much. Maybe if I can, just a quick follow up on the on the import -- on the trade import measures that Mexico took. I just wanted to understand if you think these are sufficient to balance local steel markets in Mexico. Thank you.

是的，馬克西莫，非常感謝。如果可以的話，我想快速跟進墨西哥採取的貿易進口措施。我只是想了解您是否認為這些足以平衡墨西哥當地的鋼鐵市場。謝謝。

Oh, thank you, Caio. Very good question. I think it's a good start, a very good start. But clearly, Mexico is analyzing more measures, I think in the sense as the US is doing and Canada also doing. So at the end, I'm expecting that the whole North American market will have a defense mechanism similar in each country. So if you compare Mexico's measures to the US measures, I think there's still a gap. But I understand that the Mexican government is analyzing to reduce that gap.

哦，謝謝你，Caio。非常好的問題。我認為這是一個好的開始，一個非常好的開始。但顯然，墨西哥正在研究更多措施，我認為美國和加拿大也在這樣做。所以最後，我希望整個北美市場每個國家都會有類似的防禦機制。因此，如果將墨西哥的措施與美國的措施進行比較，我認為仍然存在差距。但據我了解，墨西哥政府正在分析如何縮小這一差距。

Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

卡洛斯·德阿爾巴，摩根士丹利。

Just a couple of questions, if I may. First on EBITDA, one short term and one long term. Can you maybe give us a better sense of the magnitude of the potential improvement sequentially, given that you already seems to have bottomed out and start improvement, the step up in that recovery that you see ahead will be important. And a little bit more longer term, can you maybe quantify, give us a range of the expected boost in EBITDA in millions of dollars that you see coming from the ongoing and recent investments in Mexico?

如果可以的話，我只想問幾個問題。首先是 EBITDA，一個短期，一個長期。您能否讓我們更了解潛在改善的程度，考慮到您似乎已經觸底並開始改善，您看到的未來​​復甦步伐將非常重要。從更長遠的角度來看，您能否量化一下，您認為目前和近期在墨西哥的投資將為 EBITDA 帶來多少百萬美元的預期成長？

Okay, let me take at least the first part of your question. Clearly, as we have described in recent calls, we have born out from the lowest levels of (inaudible). Clearly, there was important increase during this quarter. Our expectation is for this to continue.

好的，我至少回答一下你問題的第一部分。顯然，正如我們在最近的電話會議中所描述的那樣，我們是從最低層開始的（聽不清楚）。顯然，本季出現了顯著的成長。我們期望這種情況能夠持續下去。

There are a lot of variables, of course, moving around, but the expectation is something that we already mentioned in the past to reach by the fourth quarter an amount of an average EBITDA margin closer to around 15%, as we know has been our goal for the company in the short run.

當然，有很多變數不斷變化，但正如我們過去提到的，預計到第四季度，平均 EBITDA 利潤率將接近 15% 左右，我們知道這是我們為公司設定的短期目標。

So we believe that with all the measures that Maximo describe on our plans to reduce costs and be more efficient, we will be able to achieve that in a normal market environment, and we are working for that, and the third quarter should be the case and the following should be an additional increase in order to achieve these levels.

因此，我們相信，透過 Maximo 在我們的計劃中描述的所有措施來降低成本並提高效率，我們將能夠在正常的市場環境下實現這一目標，我們正在為此而努力，第三季度應該如此，接下來應該還會有額外的增長，以達到這些水平。

In the longer-term view. I think Maximo, you can take this.

從長遠來看。我認為馬克西莫，你可以接受這個。

Yes, Carlos, hello, how are you? Longer term view of the project. Remember, the project -- at the end of this year, we are going to start the galvanized line and the new cold rolling mill, the PLTCM2. This is going to increase, it's going to give 1.5 million tonnes a year of new capacity.

是的，卡洛斯，你好，你好嗎？對專案的長期看法。記住，這個專案—今年年底，我們將啟動鍍鋅生產線和新的冷軋機 PLTCM2。這一數字還將增加，每年將新增 150 萬噸產能。

But remember that all this equipment has a very long run ramp up period. So you're not going to see in the 2026 huge increase. But it's 1.5 million of that, probably half million tonnes we are going to close very old capacity. Remember the Guerrero cold rolling mills or the [Universidad] cold rolling mills are very old capacity with one single stance, so very inefficient. So part of that is going to have an increase margin of EBITDA of $30 to $40 because of the cost efficiency and the other part, probably we have an EBITDA per tonne of around $150 to $200 a tonne. So you can make the math. But again, They have a long ramp up period.

但請記住，所有這些設備都有一個非常長的運行加速期。因此你不會在 2026 年看到大幅成長。但其中 150 萬噸，大概 50 萬噸，我們將關閉非常老舊的產能。請記住，格雷羅冷軋機或[Universidad]冷軋機的產能非常老舊，而且採用單一模式，因此效率非常低。因此，由於成本效率的原因，部分 EBITDA 利潤率將增加 30 至 40 美元，而另一部分，我們每噸的 EBITDA 可能約為 150 至 200 美元。所以你可以算一下。但同樣，他們有一個很長的上升期。

Maximo, this is just the part that we are --

Maximo，這只是我們--

Yeah, you're right.

是的，你說得對。

Then we have the second part of the production plan, that will be 2027.

然後我們有生產計劃的第二部分，那將是2027年。

2027, exactly.

確切地說是 2027 年。

Okay, got it. On 2027, it will be the EIF?

好的，明白了。2027 年，它會是 EIF 嗎？

And again, a long ramp up period, even longer.

再次，這是一個漫長的上升期，甚至更長。

And then the two short ones, hopefully, one is not that sure, but we'll see. On the CSN litigation, Usiminas alleged control -- changing in control. Where do we stand and what would be the next steps in that litigation. And then one small one, the Shreveport facility in the US, you typically import material from, I think, Mexico into that plant for the processing. With a 50% tariff, what is the strategy there?

然後是兩個簡短的，希望其中一個不是那麼確定，但我們會看到。在針對 CSN 的訴訟中，Usiminas 指控控制權發生了變化。我們的立場是什麼以及這場訴訟的下一步是什麼。然後是位於美國什里夫波特的一家小型工廠，通常從墨西哥進口材料到該工廠進行加工。面對 50% 的關稅，我們的策略是什麼？

Yeah, let me start with the second one which is very simple. I mean, today we are buying most of our supply from local suppliers clearly the 50% tariff it's make us buy more locally. Brazil and CSN, I mean, regarding the litigation with CSN, to be honest, they haven't been significant developed later. The last development we reported in the fourth quarter of last year.

是的，讓我從第二個開始，它非常簡單。我的意思是，今天我們的大部分供應都是從當地供應商購買的，顯然 50% 的關稅讓我們在當地購買更多。巴西和CSN，我的意思是，關於與CSN的訴訟，說實話，後來並沒有取得重大進展。我們在去年第四季報告了最新進展。

So there haven't been -- in that quarter, I think was that we change, we adjust the provision we had because of that development, but since then, there hasn't been much update to that. So if I --

所以，我認為在那個季度，我們根據這一發展做出了改變，調整了我們的規定，但從那以後，就沒有太多更新了。所以如果我--

And going forward, what are the next steps in the legal process for eventually get a final resolution on this --?

下一步，法律程序將如何最終解決這個問題？--？

No, we already appealed, and the Supreme Court of Justice has to decide if the -- our appeal is going to the Supreme Federal Tribunal, the STF, as you call it in Brazil. This is still pending.

不，我們已經提出上訴，最高法院必須決定我們的上訴是否提交給最高聯邦法庭，即巴西的 STF。此事仍懸而未決。

To be clear, I mean, we file an extraordinary appeal against the SFT quota. No decision and we are waiting for that appeal. That was, I think, in February.

明確地說，我的意思是，我們對 SFT 配額提出了特別上訴。尚未作出決定，我們正在等待上訴。我想那是在二月。

Emerson Verrier, GS.

愛默生·維裡爾，GS。

So I have two follow ups. The first one is on the cost reduction target of $300 million. I just want to understand if that compared to 2024's figures or to a run rate figure from the 4Q 2024.

所以我有兩個後續問題。第一個是削減3億美元的成本目標。我只是想了解一下，這與 2024 年的數據相比如何，還是與 2024 年第四季的運行率數據相比如何。

So just what is the comparison for the cost reduction and if that includes Usiminas. My second question is just on the impact that this lower imports into Mexico is having on steel prices and so, you guys believe that this should support further increases going into the 3Q.

那麼，成本降低的比較結果如何呢？是否包括 Usiminas？我的第二個問題是墨西哥進口量下降對鋼鐵價格有何影響，你們認為這應該會支持第三季鋼鐵價格進一步上漲。

On the first question, these $300 million are compared to 2024 without the effect of the change of raw material prices, of course. So to see it in the sheet balance, it's a little bit difficult, but we are continuously following that and making these improvements compared to 2024.

關於第一個問題，這3億美元是與2024年相比，當然沒有考慮到原物料價格變動的影響。因此，要在平衡表中看到這一點有點困難，但我們會不斷關注這一點，並與 2024 年相比做出這些改進。

Usiminas is not included on this number. Usiminas, we are making Usiminas a very aggressive competitive plant, but it's not included in this number.

Usiminas 不包含在該號碼中。Usiminas，我們正在將 Usiminas 打造為一個極具競爭力的工廠，但它不包括在這個數字中。

The second part of prices in Mexico -- prices in Mexico will probably increase a little bit, but as I said, we are probably going to gain market share. But the change in prices, they're not going to improve radically. It's going to be a mild improvement.

第二部分是墨西哥的價格——墨西哥的價格可能會略有上漲，但正如我所說，我們可能會獲得市場份額。但價格的變動不會有根本性的改善。這將是一個溫和的改善。

Okay, and just to follow up on the Mexican measures as well. Can you just elaborate a little bit on it? I mean, are we talking about quota systems, (inaudible). And if you can provide us some insights into the next measures that the government is analyzing, as you mentioned, that would be helpful. Thank you.

好的，也只是為了跟進墨西哥的措施。能稍微詳細說明一下嗎？我的意思是，我們討論的是配額制度嗎？（聽不清楚）。如果您能為我們提供一些有關政府正在分析的下一步措施的見解，正如您所說，那將會很有幫助。謝謝。

But what they are doing is revising all the several abuses that were in the system in the imports in Mexico, not only from steel. And the tax authority and the Economy Minister or the Secretary of Economy are doing different schemes to shut down all the loops that were for dumping cases and the tariffs that Mexico today is, for example, all temporary imports.

但他們正在做的是修改墨西哥進口體系中存在的所有弊端，而不僅僅是鋼鐵進口。稅務機關和經濟部長或經濟秘書正在採取不同的方案，關閉所有傾銷案件的循環，以及墨西哥今天對所有臨時進口產品徵收的關稅。

Well, they are revising because a lot of that was clearly a loophole that people were using and so, they are closing all those loopholes. And also, they are taking -- we are seeing a much more analyzing in new dumping cases. So they are enhancing the capability of analyzing all different dumping cases, and I hope soon we will have good news about that.

嗯，他們正在修改，因為其中許多顯然是人們正在利用的漏洞，所以他們正在堵塞所有這些漏洞。而且，他們正在採取——我們看到對新的傾銷案件進行了更多的分析。因此，他們正在增強分析所有不同傾銷案件的能力，我希望我們很快就會得到好消息。

(Operator Instructions) [Rafael Darcellos], Bradesco BBI.

（操作員說明）[Rafael Darcellos]，Bradesco BBI。

I have two questions related to capital allocations. So the first one, if you could please elaborate further on your CapEx cycle. I mean, whether we should see the peak of the CapEx level closer to the end of this year or more to the beginning of next year. If you could give us a sense of when you're planning to post the peak of this CapEx level and on these points also if you could provide more color on the execution of this career project, it could be interesting as well.

我有兩個與資本配置相關的問題。所以第一個問題，請您進一步闡述您的資本支出週期。我的意思是，我們應該在今年年底還是明年年初看到資本支出水準的高峰。如果您能告訴我們您計劃何時發布這一資本支出水平的峰值，並且就這些要點，您還可以提供更多關於這一職業項目執行的細節，那麼這也將很有趣。

Then the second question. It's a more -- it's a broader question in the sense of I wanted to hear from you what your thoughts on the overall capital allocation strategy going forward. I mean, whether you believe you could increase dividends in the coming years and given the ongoing difficulties in Brazil following the recent increase in imports, I mean, how is your appetite to keep investing in the country?

那麼第二個問題。這是一個更廣泛的問題，因為我想聽聽您對未來整體資本配置策略的看法。我的意思是，您是否相信未來幾年可以增加股息，並考慮到巴西最近進口增加後面臨的持續困難，您是否有興趣繼續在該國投資？

CapEx, probably this quarter, the $800 million of CapEx of this quarter would probably be -- definitely will be the top quarter of this cycle. I mean, for the remaining of the year, our projection is to be between the $2.5 billion and the $2.6 billion of CapEx that we set last conference call. With that, the next two quarters are going to be very high on the order of $700 million but lower than this quarter.

資本支出，可能是本季度，本季 8 億美元的資本支出可能 - 肯定會是本週期的最高季度。我的意思是，對於今年剩餘的時間，我們預測資本支出將在上次電話會議上設定的 25 億美元至 26 億美元之間。因此，接下來的兩個季度的支出將會非常高，約為 7 億美元，但低於本季。

Next year, 2025, will probably be around $1.9 billion and 2027 will probably be around $1.1billion, $1.2 billion. So as you see, this year is the peak, and this quarter particularly will be probably the peak of all this CapEx investments. The execution in Pesqueria, to be honest, is doing very good, as I said the PLTCM and the galvanize are going to stop the ramp up in December. That was the original date for the galvanize and we are moving forward two months the one in the PLTCM.

明年，也就是 2025 年，可能約 19 億美元，而 2027 年，可能約 11 億美元或 12 億美元。所以正如你所看到的，今年是高峰，特別是本季可能是所有資本支出投資的高峰。說實話，佩斯克里亞的執行情況非常好，正如我所說，PLTCM 和鍍鋅將在 12 月停止成長。這是鍍鋅的原定日期，我們將 PLTCM 中的日期提前兩個月。

So I mean, very comfortable with that. The steel shop and the direct reduction unit, they're going well. If you like, there are some videos in our web pages or in the media, which you realize the -- how the investment is going through, the size of the investment and the challenge, but as you would see from the videos, it's going very well and on time. So with that, we are very comfortable today, of course, looking, I mean, making a lot of efforts to deliver that in time and in budget.

所以我的意思是，對此感到非常舒服。煉鋼車間和直接還原裝置運作順利。如果您願意，我們的網頁或媒體上有一些視頻，您可以通過這些視頻了解投資的進展情況、投資規模和挑戰，但正如您從視頻中看到的那樣，一切進展順利，而且準時。因此，今天我們感到非常舒服，當然，我的意思是，我們正在做出很多努力，以便按時並在預算內實現這一目標。

The third one, Brazil, you are very correct. I mean, Brazil has to, I mean, as a country, they have to take some measures because it's not clearly, not only steel industry, but a lot of industries cannot compete with unfair from China. Not the steel, not the automotive, anybody. I know the automotive industry in Brazil just released a very tough memo about all this.

第三個，巴西，你說得很正確。我的意思是，巴西作為一個國家必須採取一些措施，因為很明顯，不僅是鋼鐵業，而且許多行業都無法與來自中國的不公平競爭。無論是鋼鐵，還是汽車，都不是。我知道巴西汽車產業剛剛就此事發布了一份非常嚴厲的備忘錄。

So this is something that probably Brazil has to figure out before investments are going there. But the long term dividends, Pablo?

因此，這可能是巴西在投資前必須解決的問題。但是長期股息呢，Pablo？

Yeah, the question of including dividends and also the capital allocation of the company. As you know, we are in the middle of a very significant CapEx plan for Ternium $4 billion. We are in the middle of that, as mentioned -- Maximo mentioned this year a total CapEx 2.5%, next year close to $2 billion. So we are in the middle of significant capital allocation that we need to cover.

是的，包括股利和公司資本配置的問題。如您所知，我們正在為 Ternium 制定一項非常重要的 40 億美元資本支出計劃。正如所提到的，我們正處於這一階段——馬克西莫提到今年的總資本支出為 2.5%，明年將接近 20 億美元。因此，我們正處於需要覆蓋的大量資本配置之中。

With this level of capital -- we also mentioned that we also confirmed that we will sustain our level of dividend payment, and we have been doing that lately, so we have a significant outflows of capital to be allocated within the project and within the dividend that we are planning to have.

有了這種資本水平——我們還提到，我們還確認將維持我們的股息支付水平，而且我們最近一直在這樣做，因此，我們有大量的資本流出可在項目內和我們計劃的股息內進行分配。

Of course, as usually happens with our big CapEx plant, then we take a year or more to digest all the investment that we have been doing. As Maximo mentioned before, the ramp up period of these CapEx plants are significant, especially these ones that are very sophisticated.

當然，就像我們的大型資本支出工廠通常發生的情況一樣，我們需要一年或更長時間來消化我們所做的所有投資。正如馬克西莫之前提到的，這些資本支出工廠的啟動期很長，尤其是那些非常複雜的工廠。

So we think that we have a very clear view of what we're doing in the near future. We have, as you know, all the plans, they are feasible for the future, but the main focus of the company, at least for the next couple of years is to, of course, get a better level of EBITDA, better level of margin for the company to sustain our dividend payment and to sustain all the capital plans that we are performing right now.

因此我們認為，我們對近期要做的事情有非常清晰的認識。如您所知，我們制定了所有計劃，這些計劃對於未來都是可行的，但公司的主要重點，至少在未來幾年，當然是獲得更好的 EBITDA 水平，更好的公司利潤率水平，以維持我們的股息支付並維持我們目前正在執行的所有資本計劃。

Just a quick follow up. So just confirm, so you mentioned that the peak of the CapEx was the second tier, right? So in the coming quarters, your CapEx level should should go down slightly, right?

只是快速跟進。所以請確認一下，您提到的資本支出高峰是第二層，對嗎？那麼在接下來的幾個季度中，您的資本支出水準應該會略微下降，對嗎？

Exactly. We are putting the number at $1.4 billion for the next semester. Around $700,000 each quarter, a little bit more or less, but that is the number approximately. Compared to the $800,000 of this quarter.

確切地。我們預計下學期的資助金額為 14 億美元。每個季度大約 70 萬美元，多一點或少一點，但大致如此。與本季的 80 萬美元相比。

Thank you. There are no further questions. I'm going to turn the call back over to our CEO for closing remarks.

謝謝。沒有其他問題了。我將把電話轉回給我們的首席執行官，請他做最後發言。

Okay. Thank you very much all for joining us in today's call. As usual, we value very much your feedback and so call us with any doubt and have a great day. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。像往常一樣，我們非常重視您的回饋，如有任何疑問，請致電我們，祝您有美好的一天。非常感謝。

The meeting has now concluded. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。