Ternium SA (TX) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Ternium's conference call to discuss the results for the third-quarter 2026. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded (Operator Instructions). We would like to remind you that this conference call is intended exclusively for investors and market analysts. We request you that any question for journalists be dedicated to the media relations through our website in the press section.

各位女士、先生，早安。歡迎參加 Ternium 的電話會議，討論 2026 年第三季的業績結果。我們在此通知各位，本活動將被錄音（接線員指示）。我們也提醒各位，本電話會議僅供投資人與市場分析師參與。我們請媒體記者的任何提問，請透過我們網站新聞區的媒體關係管道提出。

With this, I would like now to turn the floor over to Mr. Sebastián Martí. You may proceed.

接下來，我想把時間交給 Sebastián Martí 先生。請開始。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. My name is Sebastián Martí, and I'm Ternium's Global IR and Compliance Senior Director. Yesterday, we announced our financial results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2026. Today's call is intended to provide additional context to that presentation. I'm joined by Máximo Vedoya, Ternium's Chief Executive Officer; and Pablo Brizzio, the company's Chief Financial Officer, who will discuss Ternium's operating environment and performance. Following our prepared remarks, we will open up the call to your questions.

各位早安，感謝今天加入我們。我叫 Sebastián Martí，現任 Ternium 全球投資人關係與法遵資深總監。昨天，我們公布了 2026 年第三季及前九個月的財務結果。今天的電話會議旨在為該簡報提供更多背景說明。與我一同出席的有 Ternium 執行長 Máximo Vedoya，以及公司財務長 Pablo Brizzio，他們將說明 Ternium 的營運環境與表現。在我們的預先準備發言之後，我們將開放各位提問。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page two in today's webcast presentation. You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measure in the press release issued yesterday.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，本電話會議包含前瞻性資訊，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的內容有所差異。可能影響結果的因素載於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以及今日網路直播簡報的第 2 頁。您也可在昨天發布的新聞稿中，找到任何非 IFRS 財務衡量指標與最直接可比的 IFRS 指標之調節表。

With that, I will turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

接下來，我把電話會議交給 Vedoya 先生。

Thank you, Sebastián. Good morning, everyone, and thank you very much for joining Ternium's conference call today. Ternium had a solid third quarter. As we expected in our last call, EBITDA increased, driven by higher shipments and a stronger margin. Cash generation was healthy, with $600 million from operations in the quarter. In this positive environment, our board of directors declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, in line with the interim dividends paid in 2025 and 2024.

謝謝你，Sebastián。各位早安，也非常感謝各位今天參加 Ternium 的電話會議。Ternium 第三季表現穩健。如同我們在上次電話會議所預期，EBITDA 在出貨量增加與利潤率走強的帶動下上升。現金創造能力維持健康，本季營運活動帶來 6 億美元現金流入。在這樣的正向環境下，我們董事會宣布每股 ADS 0.90 美元的期中股利，與 2025 年及 2024 年支付的期中股利一致。

Now, let's go through our main markets, starting with Mexico, where we see encouraging signs. In the third quarter, our shipments to the Mexican market reached an all-time high, and in the first nine months of the year, they grew by 13%. Most of this growth comes from market share gains as we continue to replace imports. At the same time, demand is slightly better. We're also starting to see progress in infrastructure projects, which should support our volumes in the coming quarters.

現在，讓我們檢視主要市場，先從墨西哥開始，我們看到令人鼓舞的跡象。第三季，我們對墨西哥市場的出貨量創下歷史新高；而在今年前九個月，出貨量成長 13%。這些成長多數來自市占率提升，因為我們持續以本地供應取代進口。同時，需求也略有改善。我們也開始看到基礎建設專案的進展，這應可在未來幾季支撐我們的出貨量。

Two trends are also adding demand. The first is data centers, which require steel for racks and generate indirect demand for heavy equipment and air conditioning. The second is energy, with many gas pipeline projects under development. Looking ahead, the fourth quarter will show the usual seasonality. We expect volumes to keep growing further into the first quarter of 2027. Overall, the outlook for volume and prices in Mexico is positive.

另外兩項趨勢也在增加需求。第一是資料中心，資料中心需要鋼材用於機櫃，並帶動重型設備與空調的間接需求。第二是能源領域，許多天然氣管線專案正在開發中。展望未來，第四季將呈現一如往常的季節性。我們預期出貨量將持續成長，並延續至 2027 年第一季。整體而言，墨西哥的出貨量與價格展望偏正向。

In Brazil, the steel market remains complex. Worldsteel now expects apparent steel consumption in Brazil to fall 2.7% this year. Imports are the main concern. The anti-dumping measures against China introduced early this year have reduced import from that origin. However, imports from Vietnam, South Korea, and Egypt are growing strongly. Indirect imports of steel also continue to put pressure on the industry, especially through cars that are made abroad or only assembled in Brazil with imported materials.

在巴西，鋼鐵市場仍然複雜。世界鋼鐵協會（Worldsteel）目前預期巴西今年的表觀鋼材消費量將下滑 2.7%。進口是主要疑慮。今年初針對中國推出的反傾銷措施已降低來自該來源的進口。然而，來自越南、南韓與埃及的進口正強勁成長。鋼材的間接進口也持續對產業造成壓力，尤其是透過在海外製造的汽車，或僅在巴西以進口材料組裝的汽車。

The government is gradually reinforcing trade defense, and we trust it will continue on this path. More is still needed to ensure fair competition, including closing the many loopholes that still make trade measures less effective. In this environment, Usiminas will need to keep working hard on its competitiveness. Our mining business will also require a strong effort.

政府正逐步強化貿易防衛措施，我們相信其將持續沿著這條路徑推進。為確保公平競爭，仍需要做得更多，包括堵住許多仍使貿易措施效果打折的漏洞。在此環境下，Usiminas 必須持續努力提升競爭力。我們的礦業業務同樣需要付出很大的努力。

Given current iron ore prices and freight costs, we have temporarily stopped part of the operation at MUSA, and we are fully focused on restructuring them to adapt to this challenging scenario. With Ternium Brasil and Usiminas, we have a strong industrial base in the country, and we will keep working to make the most of it. In Argentina, our view of the market is similar to last quarter. Energy, mining, and agriculture continue to drive activity.

鑑於目前的鐵礦石價格與運費成本，我們已暫時停止 MUSA 的部分營運，並全力投入重整，以因應這個充滿挑戰的情境。透過 Ternium Brasil 與 Usiminas，我們在當地擁有堅實的工業基礎，並將持續努力把其效益發揮到最大。在阿根廷，我們對市場的看法與上季相近。能源、礦業與農業仍持續帶動活動。

On the other hand, industries such as home appliances and automotive face a difficult environment, with soft local demand and strong competition from unfair imports. Construction, an important sector for us in this market, remains at low levels. In this context, we are working on a productivity and efficiency agenda in our operations with four fronts: internal efficiency and lower cost, being close to the industrial customers, defense against unfair trade imports, especially from China, and institutional actions to reduce the tax burden.

另一方面，家電與汽車等產業面臨艱困環境，本地需求疲弱，且遭遇不公平進口的強烈競爭。營建業是我們在此市場的重要產業，但仍維持在低檔水準。在此背景下，我們正推動營運端的生產力與效率議程，聚焦四個面向：提升內部效率並降低成本、貼近工業客戶、因應不公平貿易進口（尤其來自中國），以及透過制度性作為降低稅負。

Before moving on to my conclusions, let me share some recent highlights. We continue working to stay close to our customers, and this commitment has been recognized. Regal Rexnord gave us its 2026 Strategic Partner Award. Home Depot named us Supplier of the Year 2026, and Caterpillar renewed our Supplier Excellence Certification at its highest levels. Across our operations, we also keep raising our environment and safety standard.

在進入結論之前，我先分享一些近期重點。我們持續努力貼近客戶，而這項承諾也獲得肯定。Regal Rexnord 頒給我們 2026 年策略夥伴獎。Home Depot 將我們評選為 2026 年度供應商，而 Caterpillar 也以最高等級更新了我們的供應商卓越認證。在各項營運據點，我們也持續提升環境與安全標準。

In August, we opened a new environmental monitoring center at our Guerrero plant in Monterrey, adding to those at our main facilities in Brazil and Argentina. And today, we are holding our Safe Supplier Award in Mexico to reinforce our commitment to zero accidents. To sum up, this was a solid quarter for Ternium, with higher EBITDA and strong cash generation. Looking ahead, we expect our volume to keep growing in the first half of 2027.

8 月，我們在蒙特雷的 Guerrero 廠啟用新的環境監測中心，與我們在巴西與阿根廷主要設施的監測中心相互補強。而今天，我們在墨西哥舉辦安全供應商獎，以強化我們對零事故的承諾。總結而言，這是 Ternium 表現穩健的一季，EBITDA 提升且現金創造強勁。展望未來，我們預期 2027 年上半年出貨量將持續成長。

At Pesquería, construction of our new slab mill is progressing as planned, and we expect to start production in February. This mill will increase our vertical integration in Mexico and allow us to offer local supply with short lead times to our industrial customers with a much lower carbon footprint. I am confident in Ternium's prospects for the quarters ahead, and I want to thank our team for their hard work and their commitment.

在 Pesquería，我們新建板胚軋鋼廠的工程正按計畫推進，預期將於 2 月開始投產。該工廠將提升我們在墨西哥的垂直整合程度，並使我們能以更低的碳足跡，向工業客戶提供交期更短的在地供應。我對 Ternium 未來幾季的前景充滿信心，也要感謝我們團隊的辛勤付出與投入。

Pablo, please go ahead with Ternium performance in the third quarter.

Pablo，請接著說明 Ternium 第三季的表現。

Thanks, Máximo, and thanks, everybody, for participating today in our call. Now let's turn to our performance in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 10% sequentially to $785 million in the third quarter, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding further to 16.9%. Performance was driven by our Steel segment, which delivered higher volumes and improved realized prices, especially in Mexico. These gains were partially offset by higher cost per ton and a lower contribution for our mining segment.

謝謝你，Máximo，也謝謝各位今天參與我們的電話會議。現在讓我們來看第三季的表現。第三季調整後 EBITDA 較前一季成長 10% 至 7.85 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率進一步擴大至 16.9%。表現主要由我們的鋼鐵事業部帶動，該部門交出更高的出貨量與更佳的實現價格，尤其是在墨西哥。上述增益部分被每噸成本上升以及礦業事業部貢獻下降所抵銷。

Looking ahead, we expect adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter to remain broadly in line with the third quarter. Typical year-end seasonality should lead to a slightly lower shipment, but this should be offset by a modest improvement in margin per ton, as higher revenue per ton more than offset rising raw material and slab costs.

展望未來，我們預期第四季調整後 EBITDA 將大致與第三季持平。典型的年底季節性因素應會導致出貨量略為下降，但這應可由每噸毛利的小幅改善所抵銷，因為每噸較高的營收將足以抵銷原物料與板胚成本上升的影響。

Net income was $368 million in the third quarter. Compared to the second one, higher operating income and a positive swing in net financial results were more than offset by higher income tax charges. We have in the third quarter deferred tax losses of $ 116 million, mostly related to the impact of the Mexican peso depreciation, compared to a gain of $86 million in the previous quarter.

第三季淨利為 3.68 億美元。與第二季相比，較高的營業利益以及淨財務結果由負轉正的改善，已被較高的所得稅費用所抵銷且有餘。第三季我們認列遞延所得稅損失 1.16 億美元，主要與墨西哥披索貶值的影響相關；相較之下，前一季為 8,600 萬美元的收益。

Let's review the Steel segment performance now. Shipment rose 5% sequentially in the third quarter, reaching 4 million tons. Mexico has been the main driver of our shipment growth in recent quarters. In the third one, we gained market share again. Commercial market shipment kept rising with significant year-over-year growth, and industrial volume also increased both sequentially and versus last year.

現在我們來回顧鋼鐵事業部的表現。第三季出貨量較前一季成長 5%，達到 400 萬噸。近幾季墨西哥一直是我們出貨成長的主要驅動力。在第三季，我們再次提升市占率。商業市場出貨持續上升，年增幅顯著；工業端銷量亦較前一季及去年同期雙雙增加。

Moving to the Steel segment performance, cash operation income rose 16% sequentially, supported by higher realized steel prices and shipment. This was partially offset by higher cost per ton, mainly reflecting increased raw material and purchased slabs, with ongoing efficiency initiatives helping to mitigate this. Steel margin expanded to 17%.

接著看鋼鐵事業部表現，現金營業利益較前一季成長 16%，主要受惠於實現鋼價與出貨量提升。但每噸成本上升部分抵銷了上述利多，主要反映原物料與外購板胚成本增加；同時，持續推動的效率提升措施有助於緩解此影響。鋼鐵事業部利潤率擴大至 17%。

Turning now to the Mining segment, shipment declined in the third quarter and more is expected for the fourth quarter. This reflects the partial suspension of MUSA operation already mentioned by Máximo. Cash operating income decreased sequentially on lower volume and slightly lower realized iron ore prices, with the margin narrowing to 16%.

接著談採礦事業部，第三季出貨量下滑，且第四季預期將進一步下降。這反映了 Máximo 先前提到的 MUSA 營運部分暫停。由於出貨量下降及實現鐵礦石價格略降，現金營業利益較前一季減少，利潤率收斂至 16%。

Let's now review the cash flow and balance sheet. Cash from operation was $613 million in the quarter. This includes a $148 million increase in working capital. This increase came mainly for higher receivables, reflecting higher volume and steel prices, and from higher inventories value due to the higher unit cost. Capital expenditure amounted to $398 million, mostly as a result of the construction of the new slab mill at the Pesquería Industrial Center, which continues to advance according to plan.

接下來回顧現金流與資產負債表。本季營運活動現金流為 6.13 億美元。其中包含營運資金增加 1.48 億美元。此增加主要來自應收帳款上升（反映出貨量與鋼價提高），以及因單位成本上升導致存貨價值增加。資本支出為 3.98 億美元，主要用於 Pesquería 工業中心新板胚廠的建設，該項目仍按計畫推進。

As a result, we generated positive free cash flow of $215 million in the quarter. With this, we ended September with a net cash position of $22 million, compared to a net debt position of $112 million at the end of June. This improvement was partially offset by a $74 million decline in the fair value of Argentine securities.

因此，本季我們產生 2.15 億美元的正自由現金流。在此基礎上，我們於 9 月底的淨現金部位為 2,200 萬美元，相較於 6 月底的淨負債 1.12 億美元。此改善部分被阿根廷證券公允價值下跌 7,400 萬美元所抵銷。

Finally, let me close with a quick look at our performance in the first nine months of the year. Adjusted EBITDA reached nearly $2 billion, up 73% year over year, with the margin expanded to 15% from 10% in the same period of 2025. Higher realized prices were the key driver, rising 8% year over year, while cost per ton remained stable, supported by several initiatives that enable an increase in efficiencies and productivity across our operations.

最後，讓我簡要回顧今年前九個月的表現。調整後 EBITDA 接近 20 億美元，年增 73%，利潤率由 2025 年同期的 10% 擴大至 15%。實現價格上升是主要驅動因素，年增 8%；同時，在多項提升營運效率與生產力的措施支持下，每噸成本維持穩定。

Net income for the period amounted to $1.2 billion, with shareholders earning of $4.26 per ADS, close to 3 times the prior year level. Capital expenditures reached $1.2 billion in the first nine months, down almost 40% from $2 billion in the same period of last year, as we move beyond the peak of our investment cycle. Finally, Ternium Board of Directors approved an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, or a total of $177 million payable on November 17.

本期淨利達 12 億美元，股東每 ADS 盈餘為 4.26 美元，接近前一年水準的 3 倍。前九個月資本支出為 12 億美元，較去年同期的 20 億美元下降近 40%，因我們已逐步走過投資週期高峰。最後，Ternium 董事會核准每 ADS 0.90 美元的期中股利，合計 1.77 億美元，將於 11 月 17 日支付。

With this, we are concluding our prepared remarks for this quarter, so we welcome now any question that you may have. Please, operator, go ahead.

以上為本季預先準備的發言內容，接下來我們歡迎各位提問。請接線員開始。

(Operator Instructions) Tathiane Candini, JPMorgan.

(接線員指示) Tathiane Candini，摩根大通。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions here. Maybe to start, I would like to just explore a little bit more on the Mexican prices. You noted on the outlook that we should expect a higher margin per ton, and we saw already some price hikes during this quarter, like around 5% quarter over quarter.

各位早安。感謝讓我在此提問。首先，我想再多探討一下墨西哥的價格。你們在展望中提到每噸毛利應會提高，而我們也已看到本季出現一些漲價，例如季增約 5%。

So I just wanted to explore a little bit more on what are your expectations for the fourth quarter when it comes to prices? What should we expect regarding to mix? And my second question is regarding capital allocation. I think we already explored a bit this in the last quarter. With Pesquería now coming soon to ramp up, we should expect lower CapEx for next year.

因此我想更進一步了解，你們對第四季價格的預期為何？在產品組合方面我們應該期待什麼？第二個問題是關於資本配置。我想我們在上一季已稍微討論過。隨著 Pesquería 即將開始放量，明年的資本支出應會降低。

Just wanted to take your head and try to understand a bit on what your perspective on the cash generation for next year, if we could expect some changes on dividends, higher dividends for next year, or if we should expect something more for 2028 still. Thank you.

我想請教你們對明年現金創造的看法：我們是否可能看到股利政策有所變化、明年股利提高，或是要到 2028 年才會有更多動作？謝謝。

Thank you very much, Tathiane. Let me start with the first question. Mexican prices, as we said, Mexican prices are continue to growing or increasing, and you saw that in the third quarter. Probably in the fourth quarter, it is going to be a little bit more up. You have to remember that they are not going to get any near the US prices, and we discussed that several times why.

非常感謝你，Tathiane。我先回答第一個問題。墨西哥價格，如同我們所說，墨西哥價格持續成長或上升，你在第三季已經看到了。第四季可能還會再略為上升一些。你必須記得，它們不會接近美國的價格，我們也多次討論過原因。

We are seeing a strong demand. We are seeing a strong demand in Mexico, as we said. We are seeing a strong demand in the US. So I think that prices will continue to hold in this level or a little bit up. You also have to consider that the industrial customers has a lag in the prices, so that lag is going to be reflected in the fourth quarter and probably in the first quarter of next year.

我們看到需求強勁。如同我們所說，我們看到墨西哥需求強勁。我們也看到美國需求強勁。因此我認為價格將會維持在目前水準或略為上升。你也必須考量工業客戶的價格存在滯後效應，因此這個滯後將在第四季、並可能在明年第一季反映出來。

I think with that, I cover the first one. Do you want, Pablo, the second one?

我想這樣就回答了第一個問題。Pablo，你要回答第二個嗎？

Okay, let me take the second one. Thanks, Tathiane, for the question. As usual, we discussed the capital allocation issue. You know that whenever we are ending a big CapEx plan, we need to take a couple of years to digest and to take advantage of everything that we have done. In the next couple of years, difficult to see any big project coming out of Ternium.

好的，我來回答第二個問題。謝謝你，Tathiane，提出這個問題。如同往常，我們討論資本配置議題。你知道，每當我們結束一個大型資本支出計畫時，我們需要花一兩年時間消化，並充分利用我們所完成的一切。在接下來幾年，很難看到 Ternium 會推出任何大型新專案。

Of course, there are one that you already know, that we already mentioned many, many times, which is our mining activity in Brazil that we will continue to analyze, and probably, Máximo, you can add to that a little after my answer. But in general, what you should see is different things.

當然，有一項你已經知道、而且我們也提過很多很多次的，就是我們在巴西的採礦業務，我們會持續評估；而且可能 Máximo 會在我回答之後再補充一些。但整體而言，你應該會看到的是一些不同的事情。

First of all, we will move into next year with probably higher cash flow generation because of the better performance that Máximo mentioned during the initial remarks, and also because the reduction in CapEx that after the big CapEx plan and moving from the big number that we have last year, this year will be around $1.2 billion, next year, $1.2 billion. This will add to your point.

首先，我們進入明年時，現金流量的產生很可能會更高，原因是如Máximo在開場說明中提到的更佳表現；同時也因為資本支出（CapEx）的下降——在完成大型資本支出計畫之後，從我們去年很高的數字下來，今年大約是12億美元，明年也是12億美元。這也呼應了你提到的觀點。

If this is a trend that we will follow and without any big project, we will basically, if this trend continue, reinforce our dividend payment. Besides that, we will be adding to the strong financial position of the company to be prepared for the possible next round of CapEx or decisions that we may take. You know that we have different propositions for the future, but in general, this is something that we take very seriously and we take some time to do that.

如果這是一個我們會延續的趨勢，且沒有任何大型專案，我們基本上——如果這個趨勢持續——將會強化我們的股利發放。除此之外，我們也會進一步鞏固公司的強勁財務狀況，以便為可能的下一輪資本支出或我們可能做出的決策做好準備。你知道我們對未來有不同的提案，但總體而言，這是我們非常嚴肅看待的事情，也會花一些時間來做。

I don't know, Máximo, if you want to add something.

我不知道，Máximo，你是否想補充些什麼。

No, I think it's clear. I mean, our next two years will be our main agenda is execution. It's to focus on how we digest all the investment that we have done. I mean, Pesquería is something fantastic, and it's starting now in February. We already have started a lot of lines, but in February, the steel shop is starting, and this will give us a huge power of how we can manage even stronger relationship with all our customers.

不，我覺得已經很清楚了。我的意思是，接下來兩年我們的主要議程會是執行。就是專注於如何消化我們已經完成的所有投資。我的意思是，Pesquería 是一個非常棒的項目，而且將在二月開始啟動。我們已經啟動了很多產線，但在二月，煉鋼廠（steel shop）將開始運轉，這將大幅提升我們與所有客戶建立更強關係的能力。

We want to execute that, and then probably 2028, we'll see what we do next. This is the focus for next year. I hope with that, at the end, we answer both questions.

我們希望把這件事執行好，然後大概到2028年，我們再看看下一步要做什麼。這就是明年的重點。我希望這樣在最後能回答你兩個問題。

No, you completely did. I just wanted to make a follow up on the Compactos project that you mentioned. Is there any kind of change on the timeline of the decision since we have, as you mentioned, a more challenging environment when it comes to freights and iron ore prices and the shutdown on partial of the Usiminas production?

不，你完全回答到了。我只是想就你提到的 Compactos 專案再追問一下。鑑於如你所說，在運費與鐵礦石價格方面的環境更具挑戰性，以及 Usiminas 部分產能的停產，決策時程是否有任何變化？

There's no real change today. As you know, the decision, we always said we have to make it in 2027. Probably that decision is still there in 2027, and we continue analyzing the different options that we have with Compactos. There are several, as you said, several technical solutions that we are finding where maybe we can do a project with a little bit less or much less investment in a first stage and a bigger investment in a second stage.

目前沒有真正的變化。如你所知，我們一直說這個決策必須在2027年做出。很可能這個決策仍會在2027年做出，我們也持續分析 Compactos 的不同選項。如你所說，我們正在找到幾種技術解決方案，也許我們可以在第一階段用較少、甚至大幅較少的投資來做一個專案，並在第二階段再投入更大的投資。

All those things are things that we are analyzing. So there may be changes to what we thought originally was the big Compactos project. To be honest, all those alternatives, we are analyzing it, and we will reach a conclusion during 2027. In the meantime, we are progressing with all the license we need to have, but those are not a very big investment.

這些都是我們正在分析的事項。因此，對於我們原先所設想的大型 Compactos 專案，可能會有一些變化。坦白說，所有這些替代方案我們都在分析，並會在2027年期間得出結論。同時，我們也在推進所需的各項許可，但那些並不是很大的投資。

Super clear. Thank you, everyone.

非常清楚。謝謝各位。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Daniel Sasson, Itaú BBA.

Daniel Sasson，Itaú BBA。

Hi, everyone. Thank you so much for taking my questions. My first question is related to the USMCA or Section 232 negotiations. If you could update us on where the US-Mexico talks stand right now, if you think that a steel-specific deal is more likely than a full USMCA review, your base case for timing of the 232 relief. So what do you assume for Mexican HRC prices and for margins once that happens, right?

各位好。非常感謝讓我提問。我的第一個問題與 USMCA 或第232條款（Section 232）的談判有關。能否更新一下目前美墨談判的進展？你是否認為達成鋼鐵專屬協議的可能性高於全面的 USMCA 檢討？以及你對232豁免（relief）時點的基本情境（base case）是什麼？因此，一旦發生，你對墨西哥熱軋捲（HRC）價格以及利潤率的假設是什麼？

My second question, you've said in the past that buying the remaining Usiminas shares would make sense long term, but that conditions on the shares complicate it short term. So with the net cash position restored, right, and CapEx falling, as Tati mentioned in the previous question, what's the timing and the path for the listing or tender offer? What conditions remain?

我的第二個問題：你們過去曾說，長期來看收購剩餘的 Usiminas 股份是合理的，但短期內股份相關條件使其更複雜。那麼在淨現金部位恢復、且如前一題 Tati 提到的資本支出下降的情況下，上市（listing）或要約收購（tender offer）的時點與路徑是什麼？還有哪些條件仍然存在？

Does the litigation that you have related to Usiminas share play a role on this sense? If you could just maybe strategically or qualitatively discuss this issue, that would be great. Thank you so much.

你們與 Usiminas 股份相關的訴訟，是否在這方面扮演一定角色？如果你能從策略或定性角度談談這個議題，那就太好了。非常感謝。

Thank you to you, Daniel. I start with the first question, USMCA 232. I continue seeing this the same way as we talked during the analyst day and we talked in the last conference call. I think there is a very good I mean, making a renewal USMCA is good for everybody, not only for Mexico. Probably it's very good for the US also, and I always have said this.

謝謝你，Daniel。我先回答第一個問題，USMCA 232。我仍然以我們在分析師日以及上次法說會中談到的方式來看待這件事。我認為更新（renewal）USMCA 對所有人都有好處，不僅對墨西哥有利。對美國可能也非常有利，我一直都是這麼說的。

I think that there's still so many things to discuss on a renewal USMCA, especially on fortifying rules of origin, and I think the two governments or the two administrations are very commitment to this. They see that having more value-added production in the region is something very good. This is not only the US vision, it's also the Mexican vision. So at the end, I think that it's very reasonable to have a USMCA renewal on some date.

我認為在更新 USMCA 上仍有很多事情需要討論，特別是強化原產地規則（rules of origin），而我認為兩國政府或兩個行政團隊對此都非常投入。他們認為在區域內增加更多高附加價值的生產是非常好的事情。這不只是美國的願景，也是墨西哥的願景。因此，總體而言，我認為在某個時間點進行 USMCA 更新是非常合理的。

Which one? I cannot say that. What I do think that one of the Mexican priorities is to resolve the Section 232, not only of steel, but steel, aluminum, and the derivatives. I know they are working through that. What type of agreement are they going to make? I don't know yet, but I think that that is a possibility. You ask, and this deal, what should it do with our price?

是哪一天？我無法說。但我確實認為，墨西哥的優先事項之一是解決第232條款，不僅是鋼鐵，還包括鋁以及其衍生品。我知道他們正在推進這件事。他們會達成什麼類型的協議？我現在還不知道，但我認為這是有可能的。你問到，這個協議對我們的價格會有什麼影響？

As I said before, I do not think that it does anything to the US prices. Probably what it does is that you have more reason. The Mexican price today is, they have a huge gap to the American price, to the US price, and probably an agreement will make that that difference is lower in the future. That is from the USMCA. Usiminas share, I mean, you ask if we have a path. Today, we do not have any path to that.

如我之前所說，我不認為它會對美國價格造成任何影響。它可能帶來的是，你有更多理由——目前墨西哥價格與美國（US）價格之間存在很大的差距，而協議可能會使未來這個差距縮小。這是關於 USMCA。至於 Usiminas 的股份——你的意思是問我們是否有一條路徑——目前我們沒有任何路徑。

As I said several times, streamlining our corporate structure remains part of our long-term objectives. Having said this, Usiminas share is not only a financial decision. We have to consider other factors. We have, as you said, some legal issues pending, and also we need to see where Brazil is going in the future. There are many things still on the path before we take any decision in this respect.

如我多次提到，精簡我們的公司架構仍是我們的長期目標之一。但即便如此，Usiminas 的股份不僅是一個財務決策。我們必須考量其他因素。如你所說，我們仍有一些法律議題尚待解決，同時我們也需要觀察巴西未來的走向。在我們就此做出任何決定之前，仍有許多事情需要先釐清與推進。

Thank you so much. Super clear.

非常感謝。非常清楚。

Daniel, I hope that is okay.

Daniel，我希望這樣可以。

Yes. Thank you.

是的。謝謝。

No, you are welcome, Daniel.

不客氣，Daniel。

Matheus Moreira, Bradesco BBI.

Matheus Moreira，Bradesco BBI。

Yes, thank you, and morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. Two on my side. First, maybe a follow-up on the capital allocation question, but focusing more on dividends. I mean, you kept the nominal dividend unchanged versus last year, despite the company being on a much better position in terms of results, right?

是的，謝謝，各位早安。謝謝讓我提問。我這邊有兩個問題。第一個，可能是延續資本配置的問題，但更聚焦在股利。我的意思是，儘管公司在業績表現上處於明顯更好的位置，你們仍然把名目股利維持在與去年相同，對吧？

With CapEx, as Daniel mentioned, set to sharply decline in the coming quarters. Just wanted to better understand the rationale behind the dividend and whether you see room for more aggressive payouts going forward. That is my first question.

而且如 Daniel 提到的，資本支出（CapEx）在接下來幾個季度將大幅下降。我只是想更了解股利政策背後的考量，以及你們是否認為未來有空間採取更積極的配息。這是我的第一個問題。

My second question on demand in Mexico. I mean, I wanted to get an overall view on how you are seeing overall demand trends in Mexico. Your volumes in the third quarter were very strong, but my understanding is that this was mainly driven by import substitution rather than underlying downstream demand growth.

第二個問題是關於墨西哥的需求。我的意思是，我想了解你們如何看待墨西哥整體需求趨勢。你們第三季的出貨量非常強勁，但我的理解是，這主要是由進口替代所帶動，而不是下游內生需求成長。

I wanted to just touch and get your color on how do you see demand in Mexico by each end-use segment, and how do you see demand evolving, especially in a scenario where US and Mexico reach an agreement on steel. Thanks. Those are my two questions.

我想請你們分享一下，按各終端用途（end-use）產業別來看，你們如何看待墨西哥的需求，以及需求將如何演變，特別是在美國與墨西哥就鋼鐵達成協議的情境下。謝謝。以上是我的兩個問題。

Okay. Thanks, Mattheus, for your question. Let me take the first one, which was related to dividends. Let me divide it in two. The first one is a long-term view, which is very similar to the history that we have, which is that whenever we saw that the trend is positive to raise dividend and sustain that in the long run, that is something that we will do.

好的。謝謝你，Mattheus，謝謝你的提問。我先回答第一個，關於股利。我把它分成兩部分。第一部分是長期觀點，這與我們過去的歷史非常一致：只要我們看到提高股利並能在長期維持的趨勢是正向的，我們就會這麼做。

And clearly, if the projections and the views that Máximo mentioned and we have for Ternium are in that direction, clearly that will be something that with a very high possibility. In relationship to current dividends, you know that in the past we have also a proposition of an interim dividend that reflects around one-third of the total dividend of the year.

而且很明顯，如果 Máximo 提到的、以及我們對 Ternium 的預測與看法是朝這個方向走，那麼這件事發生的可能性就非常高。至於目前的股利，你也知道，過去我們也曾提出期中股利（interim dividend）的方案，通常約占全年總股利的三分之一。

If this is the situation, and this is what we have just confirmed with the $0.90 dividend, we should be back to the level of dividend that we paid two years ago after the reduction that you saw last year because we were in the middle of a very uncertain period with the war in the Middle East. This should be a trend. Of course, this to be confirmed by our Board of Directors when they propose that to the shareholders meeting, but this should be the case and this should be the tendency for the future.

如果情況如此，而這也是我們剛剛以 0.90 美元股利所確認的，那麼在你去年看到、因為我們正處於中東戰爭帶來高度不確定性的期間而下調之後，我們應該會回到兩年前的配息水準。這應該會是一個趨勢。當然，仍需由董事會在向股東會提出提案時予以確認，但應該會是如此，且這也應該是未來的走向。

Mattheus, the second question, demand in Mexico. You are right in part of what you are saying. In a part of what you are saying. This increase in our shipment is due mainly because we gained market share against import. And the market is growing, but it is growing at a very slight pace, at least these nine months. But we are seeing a pickup in demand for the following quarters. So there are two things here.

Mattheus，第二個問題，墨西哥的需求。你說的部分是對的。在你所說的其中一部分是對的。我們出貨量的增加主要是因為我們從進口手中取得了市占。市場也在成長，但至少在這九個月裡，成長速度非常溫和。不過，我們看到接下來幾個季度需求會回升。所以這裡有兩件事。

We are gaining market share, and we are seeing in the following quarters that demand in Mexico is starting to grow. And this is by several sectors, but mainly it is infrastructure. There are more projects, public infrastructure, but also there is private projects. For example, energy and pipelines, as I said, but also we are seeing more investment in renewable energy with all these schemes that were made between CFE and the private sector, and we are seeing that will start construction in 2027. That has a lot of steel in that.

我們正在提升市占，同時我們也看到接下來幾個季度墨西哥的需求開始成長。這是由多個產業帶動，但主要是基礎建設。有更多專案，公共基礎建設增加，同時也有民間專案。例如，我提到的能源與管線；此外，我們也看到在 CFE 與民間部門之間所制定的各種方案下，再生能源投資增加，而我們看到這些將在 2027 年開始施工。那裡面會用到大量鋼材。

Also, we are seeing more demand from the industry. So there are two things here. Gaining market share, the past, and we will continue to focus on gaining market share, but also we are seeing a pickup in demand. All this pickup demand does not have yet a solution for the 232. So what you said of if there is an agreement, probably that is on top of what I am saying, because in this forecast, we do not see yet any demand coming from a USMCA solution or whatever you can call it.

另外，我們也看到來自工業端的需求增加。所以這裡有兩件事。過去是提升市占，我們也會持續專注於提升市占；同時我們也看到需求回升。而這些需求回升的預測，尚未把 232（條款）問題的解決納入。所以你提到如果達成協議，可能會是在我所說的基礎之上的額外利多，因為在這個預測中，我們尚未看到任何來自 USMCA 解決方案（或你怎麼稱呼都可以）所帶來的需求。

I hope that, Matheus, answered the second part also.

希望這也回答了第二部分，Matheus。

Yeah, it does. Thank you very much.

是的，有的。非常感謝。

Welcome.

不客氣。

Emerson Souza Vieira, Goldman Sachs.

Emerson Souza Vieira，高盛。

Hello, good morning. I have two questions. First of them, on the market share dynamics, I just wanted to understand how much room we still have to continue to gain market share over imports. I think, in the capital markets day, the company mentioned you were running at like 50% market share with flats to imports declining by 10% to 11% in the first semester of this year.

你好，早安。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於市占動態，我想了解我們在持續從進口手中提升市占方面，還有多少空間。我記得在資本市場日，公司提到你們平板產品（flats）的市占大約在 50%，而今年上半年進口下降了約 10% 到 11%。

Going forward, how much further room do you have to gain market share on imports? Then on dynamics as well, of the underlying demand, just to confirm here. The value chain still remains with low inventory levels, right? I recall that prior quarters you were mentioning that you were seeing some movement in restocking, but it still seems that there's no restocking happening at this point.

往前看，你們在從進口手中提升市占方面，還有多大的進一步空間？另外也想確認一下內生需求的動態。價值鏈目前仍維持在低庫存水位，對吧？我記得前幾季你們提到看到一些補庫存（restocking）的動作，但目前看起來似乎沒有在補庫存。

Also second one on Compactos, you mentioned a potential change in the project scope, right, with higher CapEx upfront, with lower CapEx upfront and higher CapEx later on. Can you give us more color on that in terms of what could be the potential change to the CapEx being split between those two phases, please? In terms of how the project would change, indeed with this revision. Thank you.

第二個問題是關於 Compactos。你們提到專案範疇可能會調整，對吧，也就是前期 CapEx 較高、後期 CapEx 較低，改成前期 CapEx 較低、後期 CapEx 較高。能否請你們就此提供更多說明，例如 CapEx 可能如何在這兩個階段之間分配？也就是在這次修訂下，專案本身會如何改變。謝謝。

Thank you, Emerson. Yes, market share. There is a big room that we can increase. Today, imported in Mexico, if you take only flat products and flat products that we can produce, I take there other things that tinplate that we don't produce and plates, there are more than 400,000 tons every month that are imported in Mexico. You make the math and I don't see any problem in taking more part of that.

謝謝你，Emerson。是的，市占。我們還有很大的提升空間。目前在墨西哥的進口，如果只看平板產品，以及我們能生產的平板產品——我把我們不生產的其他品項排除掉，例如鍍錫板（tinplate）以及厚板（plates）——每個月進口到墨西哥的量超過 40 萬噸。你算一下數字，我看不出我們多拿一些份額會有任何問題。

We have the product. We have the service. We have everything. I think what we do need is to continue working as our commercial team are working to increase little by little this market share, of all this huge market. We're talking about 5 million tonnes a year, 6 million tonnes. Again, it's up to us to gain part of that.

我們有產品。我們有服務。我們什麼都有。我認為我們需要做的，就是持續像我們商務團隊現在所做的那樣，一點一點地提升在這個龐大市場中的市占。我們談的是一年 500 萬噸、600 萬噸。再說一次，能否取得其中一部分，取決於我們自己。

Compactos, look, we are still looking at Compactos in a sense. There are several alternatives that we are analyzing. One of those is what I said that, like putting first some of the part of Compactos and then the other. But to be honest, we are not ready today to see that this is feasible or not. It was an example of several things that we are seeing. We will wait until probably next year to see if one of these is feasible, especially in this new environmental of prices of iron ore, and which one will be.

Compactos，你看，我們在某種意義上仍然在看Compactos。我們正在分析幾個替代方案。其中之一就是我說的那種做法，例如先放入Compactos的一部分，然後再放入另一部分。但老實說，我們今天還沒準備好判斷這是否可行。那只是我們正在看的幾件事情中的一個例子。我們可能會等到明年，看看在這個新的鐵礦石價格環境下，這些方案中是否有一個可行，以及會是哪一個。

I hope that it answered both questions, Emerson. I don't remember, in the first one, you also were asking something about stocks or something like that?

希望這回答了你的兩個問題，Emerson。我不記得了，在第一個問題裡，你是不是也問了跟庫存之類的事情？

Yeah, if you were seeing some movement in restocking in your customers.

對，你們是否看到客戶端有任何補庫存（restocking）的動向。

No, not yet. It's still the same. I mean, they are working with low inventories, to be honest. They were working with low inventories because of the market dynamics. Now that demand is starting to pick up, I am thinking that inventories should increase also. But we are not seeing any change in inventory levels or the low inventory levels of our customers.

沒有，還沒有。目前仍然一樣。老實說，他們一直以低庫存運作。他們之所以維持低庫存，是因為市場的動態。現在需求開始回升，我認為庫存也應該會增加。但我們沒有看到庫存水位有任何變化，客戶仍維持低庫存水位。

All right. Do you know what could be, I don't know, a normalized inventory level at your customers? To have, I don't know, like --

了解。你知道客戶端所謂的正常化庫存水位大概會是什麼嗎？例如要有，我不知道，像是——

Well, it depends a lot in --

嗯，這很大程度取決於——

Actually backlog number from the past.

其實是過去的在手訂單（backlog）數字。

No, it depends a lot in every industry. Every industry has a different number, commercial or industries or automotive. But what we are seeing in all the chain that from a usual perspective, they are low in inventories.

不，這很大程度取決於各個產業。每個產業的數字都不同，不管是商業用、工業用或汽車業。但我們在整個供應鏈看到的是，從一般的角度來看，他們的庫存都偏低。

Okay.

好的。

Every automotive is low in inventories across the board. They usually have a lot of inventory. Now they're low by their standard. Demand is, as I said, starting to pick up.

整個汽車產業的庫存普遍都偏低。他們通常會有很多庫存。現在以他們的標準來看是偏低的。需求正如我所說，開始回升。

Okay. Thank you. Super clear.

好的，謝謝。非常清楚。

You are welcome.

不客氣。

Alfonso Salazar, Scotiabank.

Alfonso Salazar，Scotiabank。

Yes. Hello, Máximo. I have two questions. We have seen many cycles in this industry. But the question that I have for you is, how do you see the normalization of markets in Mexico, in Brazil, in Argentina? I am not going to ask you about the timing because that is very hard to say anything about. But, what do you expect to see in the long term in these three main markets for Ternium in terms of normalized EBITDA margins, market dynamics, different conditions?

是的，你好，Máximo。我有兩個問題。我們在這個產業看過很多個循環。但我想問你的是，你如何看待墨西哥、巴西、阿根廷市場的正常化？我不會問你時間點，因為那很難說。但就長期而言，你預期在這三個Ternium的主要市場中，正常化的EBITDA利潤率、市場動態、不同條件會是什麼樣子？

Related to this question, the second one is, are you reviewing the expected exposure by industry across countries? The reason why I am asking you this is because without industrial policies in Latin America, what we have seen, for example, in autos is a flood of autos from China, cheap autos from China. This is certainly a problem for long-term steel demand. I don't know if you are considering this in your projections.

與此相關的第二個問題是，你們是否正在重新檢視各國按產業別的預期曝險？我之所以這樣問，是因為在拉丁美洲缺乏產業政策的情況下，我們看到例如汽車領域出現大量來自中國的汽車、便宜的中國車。這對長期鋼鐵需求確實是一個問題。我不知道你們是否在預測中把這點納入考量。

Anything that you can say about how this exposure to different industries across the region would be very helpful. Thank you.

你能談談這種在整個區域內對不同產業的曝險會如何變化，將會非常有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah. Thank you, Alfonso. That's a very good point, and let me start with that second question. I mean, as I said, unfair trade is not a problem only from the steel industry. It's very clear, for example, what is happening in cars in Brazil, that you mentioned, with imports from a lot of Chinese car manufacturers that when you see their financial, their subsidies are 15% to 20% bigger than whatever any automotive industry will have in Brazil or any other countries.

是的，謝謝你，Alfonso。這點非常好，我先從第二個問題開始。我的意思是，正如我說的，不公平貿易不只是鋼鐵產業的問題。例如你提到的巴西汽車市場正在發生的事情非常明顯：許多中國汽車製造商的進口車湧入；當你看他們的財務狀況時，他們的補貼比巴西或其他國家的任何汽車產業所能得到的補貼高出15%到20%。

So this is a main issue. I think in this regard, the US, Europe, Canada, they are taking the lead not only in fighting unfair steel trade, but fighting unfair trade. Mexico is following. Mexico is starting to do a good job. I think Brazil is starting to realize that the problem is not only steel, but this. So you're right.

所以這是一個主要議題。我認為在這方面，美國、歐洲、加拿大正在帶頭，不僅是在對抗不公平的鋼鐵貿易，而是在對抗不公平貿易本身。墨西哥正在跟進。墨西哥開始做得不錯。我認為巴西也開始意識到問題不只是鋼鐵，而是這整件事。所以你說得對。

For normalized market in Brazil, these things has to take into account. We are expecting that the Brazil government starts seeing these things. I mean, we know they're starting to see. We have to see how they react. The market will normalize when they react to this trend of unfair trade imports. I think Argentina is still on a further, and still has more work to do than Brazil, and Brazil has more work to do than Mexico, and Mexico has still some things to do compared to the US.

至於巴西市場的正常化，必須把這些因素納入考量。我們預期巴西政府會開始正視這些事情。我的意思是，我們知道他們已經開始在看。我們還要看他們會如何反應。當他們對這股不公平貿易進口的趨勢作出反應時，市場才會正常化。我認為阿根廷還落後一些，還有比巴西更多的工作要做；巴西要做的又比墨西哥多；而墨西哥相較於美國也還有一些事情要做。

So this is my vision. But the truth is that the world is reacting to this. I mean, if you see, we have the G20 meeting in Milwaukee, I don't know, a month ago. I was there with all the ministers of economy. The decision of what they ended up saying in the meeting was very strong, because they have the G20 Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity over there, but they also mention all the industries where unfair trade, overcapacity, and subsidies are destroying the markets.

這就是我的看法。但事實是，全世界都在對此作出反應。我的意思是，如果你看，我們大概一個月前在密爾瓦基有G20會議。我當時和所有經濟部長都在那裡。他們最後在會議上所表達的決議非常強硬，因為那裡有G20「全球鋼鐵產能過剩論壇」，但他們也提到所有那些不公平貿易、產能過剩與補貼正在破壞市場的產業。

So today, even the G20 is acknowledge the huge problem that these unfair imports are causing to all the industries. I think most of them are reacting. So that's my vision in that sense. It's something to be considered, it's something to be very spoken about, and I think the governments are starting to react. I hope I answered that second question, Alfonso.

所以今天，連G20都在承認這些不公平進口對所有產業造成的巨大問題。我認為大多數國家都在反應。所以這就是我在這方面的看法。這是需要被納入考量的事情，也是需要被大量討論的事情，而我認為各國政府正開始作出反應。希望我回答了你的第二個問題，Alfonso。

Yeah. It's just a follow up on Argentina. Alacero released recently a report basically saying that they have now a more open market approach to trade. Just wondering, how is this affecting you and how do you see that evolving?

是的。我只是追問一下阿根廷。Alacero最近發布了一份報告，基本上說他們現在採取更開放的貿易市場取向。我想知道這對你們有何影響，以及你如何看待後續的演變？

No, Argentina, the imports are a big problem. I think Argentina, as you say, and Alacero is mentioning, Argentina, the government of Argentina has a very good, I mean, it is working very hard to normalize the macro economy, but it is yet to realize the big problem that the excess capacity in several industries are damaging the industry in Argentina. That is a problem.

不，阿根廷的進口是一個大問題。我認為阿根廷，如你所說、也如Alacero所提到的，阿根廷政府在使總體經濟正常化方面做得很好，我的意思是，他們非常努力在推動；但他們仍尚未意識到，若干產業的產能過剩正在對阿根廷的產業造成巨大的傷害。這是一個問題。

I think there is some change in the mood in saying we have to make this growth in energy, in mining, be also a growth of the industry and how the industry of Argentina can support that growth in oil and gas and in energy and in mining. But it is still a subject that has to be developed.

我認為在氛圍上有一些改變：大家開始說，我們必須讓能源與礦業的成長，也成為工業的成長，並讓阿根廷的工業能夠支撐油氣、能源與礦業的成長。但這仍是一個需要進一步發展的議題。

Very good. Thank you. Very useful, Máximo.

非常好。謝謝。非常有幫助，Máximo。

Thank you, Alfonso.

謝謝你，Alfonso。

Ricardo Monegaglia, Safra.

Ricardo Monegaglia，Safra。

Hi, Máximo. Hi, Pablo. Thank you for taking my questions. First one, we saw recently that Mexican prices widened against US prices. I wonder if you have any clue on what caused that or if it's only temporary. A follow-up on that, we see a more strict treatment against imports in the US, so I wonder if in your view you think Mexico could take a more strict approach as well to imports, not only steel, but also indirect imports of steel such as autos, as you mentioned.

嗨，Máximo。嗨，Pablo。謝謝你回答我的問題。第一個問題，我們最近看到墨西哥價格相對於美國價格的價差擴大。我想知道你是否有任何線索是什麼造成的，或這只是暫時性的。延伸追問，我們看到美國對進口採取更嚴格的處理方式，所以我想請教你認為墨西哥是否也可能對進口採取更嚴格的做法，不僅是鋼材，也包括你提到的鋼材間接進口，例如汽車。

Do you think that is on the discussions currently? I'll ask my second one later.

你覺得這目前在討論中嗎？我第二個問題稍後再問。

Yeah, Ricardo, thank you. For sure, the agenda in Mexico, I think, is quite similar to the one in the US. If you recalled, one year ago, the Mexican administration put a decree where they increased tariff of 1,100 products. Of that, 200 were steel, but all the others were different products in the value chain. I think the vision that the Mexican administration has is to increase value added in the region, to increase trade with the US, but trade that has more value added, and it's not only a maquila, as they call it.

是的，Ricardo，謝謝。當然，墨西哥的議程我認為與美國相當類似。若你記得，一年前墨西哥政府發布了一項法令，將1,100項產品的關稅提高。其中200項是鋼材，其餘則是價值鏈中的不同產品。我認為墨西哥政府的願景是提高區域內的附加價值、增加與美國的貿易，但要是附加價值更高的貿易，而不只是他們所稱的「加工出口」（maquila）。

I think that's something that is in the agenda, and they're working on it. Of course, they cannot do it in the same pace as the US. Mexico is a different economy. They have different needs, and I think the good approach is to see exactly where Mexico can push for these strict rules. Prices, they are a little bit wide because the US increases a little bit more, but if you take the percentage, they're still kind of the same. I think it's only because prices continue to increase that the difference in dollar per ton is different.

我認為這是議程中的一部分，他們也正在推動。當然，他們不可能以與美國相同的速度來做。墨西哥是不同的經濟體。他們有不同的需求，我認為好的做法是精準找出墨西哥可以在哪些地方推動這些更嚴格的規則。價格方面，價差稍微拉大是因為美國價格漲得多一些，但若看百分比，其實仍大致相同。我認為只是因為價格持續上漲，才使得以美元/噸計的差距看起來不同。

As I said, I mean, this is the difference between the 232. If you get rid of the 232, probably Mexican prices will go again to be the same in the US as the US prices.

如我所說，這就是232條款造成的差異。如果取消232條款，墨西哥價格大概又會回到與美國價格一致。

Yeah, I agree. My second question on the Pesquería upstream project. We are getting closer to the startup, but could you remind us, please, on the contribution that you expect from this project across 2027? Maybe if you could split between the halves of the year would be great. Thank you.

是的，我同意。我第二個問題是關於Pesquería上游專案。我們越來越接近投產了，但能否請你提醒一下，這個專案在整個2027年你們預期的貢獻是什麼？如果可以按上下半年拆分說明就更好了。謝謝。

Yeah. Well, as I said before, remember, we are starting this huge project. 2027 is a ramp-up. It starts in February, but this is a very, very complex equipment, so don't expect a huge increase in our profit because of the Pesquería. Probably, I mean, it can be higher, but not because of the steel shop. What we are thinking is more in 2028. For once, the margin of the slabs is probably between $50 and $100.

好的。嗯，如我之前所說，請記得我們正在啟動這個龐大的專案。2027年是爬坡期（ramp-up）。它在2月開始，但這是一套非常、非常複雜的設備，所以不要期待因為Pesquería就讓我們的獲利大幅增加。可能會更高，但不是因為煉鋼廠（steel shop）。我們更多是看2028年。首先，板胚（slab）的毛利大概在50到100美元之間。

So that's what we change when we use slab from Pesquería instead of buying abroad. But also, this is much sophisticated products with conditions of very low carbon emissions and of melted and poured in the region. So we are thinking of a price premium when we sell this product. That will add to that margin that I already said, Ricardo.

也就是說，當我們使用Pesquería的板胚而不是從海外採購時，就能取得這部分的改善。此外，這些是更高階的產品，具備非常低的碳排放條件，且是在區域內熔煉與澆鑄。因此我們在銷售這些產品時，預期會有價格溢價（premium）。這會在我剛才提到的那個毛利之上再增加，Ricardo。

Thank you.

謝謝。

But you will see that probably in 2028, to be honest.

但老實說，你大概會在2028年看到。

Perfect. So a lower cost of slabs and also maybe potentially an increase in realized price once-

了解。所以板胚成本更低，另外一旦—也可能在實現價格上有所提升—

Exactly.

沒錯。

Okay. Thank you and congrats on the results.

好的。謝謝，也恭喜這次的業績。

Thank you. Thank you, Ricardo.

謝謝。謝謝你，Ricardo。

Marcelo Arazi, BTG Pactual.

Marcelo Arazi，BTG Pactual。

Hi, guys. Thanks for the space here. I wanted to discuss a bit the outlook that you guys provided for Q4. You mentioned that ship should decline a bit and some increase in raw material prices. But looking at the speech that you guys provided, we have been seeing demand peaking over the next couple of months. It is pace for further market share gains, and prices are still very strong.

嗨，各位。謝謝提供這個提問機會。我想討論一下你們對第四季提供的展望。你們提到出貨量可能會小幅下滑，以及原物料價格會有一些上升。但從你們的說法來看，我們看到未來幾個月需求正在見頂。這也為進一步提升市占率鋪路，而價格仍然非常強勁。

We are seeing prices, HRC Mexican prices on flats rising more than 40% year over year, while Ternium's prices increased only 15%. So it seems like there is still some room for further growth. Is it fair to say that the outlook is somewhat conservative for Q4, and we could potentially see some EBITDA increase, even amid a weaker seasonality? Thank you, guys.

我們看到價格方面，墨西哥HRC（熱軋捲）平板產品價格年增超過40%，而Ternium的價格只增加了15%。所以看起來仍有進一步成長的空間。是否可以說，你們對第四季的展望相對保守，而即使在季節性較弱的情況下，我們仍可能看到EBITDA增加？謝謝各位。

Thank you, Marcelo. I don't think it's conservative, to be honest. You have to remember, December, it's a very low month in all the three of our markets. January is also low in Argentina and Brazil. Seasonally, we are going to have less shipments, and we also have several stoppage for CapEx in some of the lines. We are going to see a little bit volume decrease that is going to be compensate by the margin increase. That's why we put that outlook.

謝謝你，Marcelo。老實說，我不認為這是保守。你要記得，12月在我們三個市場都是非常淡的月份。1月在阿根廷和巴西也偏淡。從季節性來看，我們的出貨量會比較少，而且我們也會在部分產線因資本支出（CapEx）安排數次停機。我們會看到一些量的下滑，但會被毛利提升所抵消。這就是我們給出那個展望的原因。

What you can say is that the demand and also probably margins are going to increase in the first quarter. That's probably a good assumption to make.

你可以這麼說：需求以及可能的毛利會在第一季上升。這大概是個合理的假設。

That's clear. Thank you.

了解。謝謝。

Thank you, Marcelo.

謝謝你，Marcelo。

(Operator Instructions) Caio Greiner, UBS.

（接線員指示）Caio Greiner，UBS。

Yes. Good morning, guys. Two quick questions from me. Just circling back on the capital allocation theme. When we think about 2027, I mean, Ternium is supposed to generate a whole lot of cash. I mean, it's supposed to be like $1 billion to $1.5 billion, depending on the estimate, depending on the EBITDA and the HRC prices that you use.

是的。各位早安。我這邊兩個簡短問題。回到資本配置這個主題。當我們思考2027年時，我的意思是，Ternium應該會產生大量現金。也就是大約10億到15億美元，視估算而定，取決於你採用的EBITDA與HRC價格假設。

No matter what, I mean, it's going to be a very strong cash print for next year. And obviously, when we look at your net debt, net cash position right now, you're close to zero. We're just looking at this and saying, okay, so you're starting to build a really elevated net cash position for next year. So you could end the year at $ 500 million to $ 1 billion in net cash, depending on the dividend that you pay.

不管怎麼看，明年都會是非常強勁的現金流入。而且顯然，當我們看你們目前的淨負債、淨現金部位時，幾乎接近零。我們看著這些數字會想，好，那你們明年開始會累積相當高的淨現金部位。因此你們年底可能會有5億到10億美元的淨現金，取決於你們支付的股利。

It seems a little bit too high, and I think the market is always wondering, what are you going to do with this cash. We do understand that Ternium is more on the conservative side when it comes to dividend payments, when it comes to even to the net cash position that you hold.

看起來有點偏高，而且我認為市場一直在想，你們打算如何運用這些現金。我們也理解，Ternium 在股利發放方面相對保守，甚至在你們所持有的淨現金部位方面也是如此。

So I was just wondering, do you have a net cash target that we can use for next year that you think would be appropriate and that we can think about this target as you could potentially pay additional dividends to your 2025 payment, which is what you suggested was going to be the case for 2027. Is there any indication here that we could work with in terms of your target net cash balance for 2027?

所以我想請教一下，你們是否有一個明年的淨現金目標，讓我們可以用來參考，並且把這個目標視為你們可能在 2025 年的股利發放之外再額外配發股利的依據——你們先前提到這可能會在 2027 年發生。就你們 2027 年的目標淨現金餘額而言，有沒有任何我們可以參考的指引？

The second question, real quickly on the CSN litigation, just wondering if you have any update there on how's the litigation going. Thank you.

第二個問題，很快問一下關於 CSN 訴訟案，想請問你們是否有任何最新進展，訴訟進行得如何。謝謝。

Thank you, Caio. CSN, we don't have any update. Things are the same as we have always, as the last quarters. So we don't have anything to add about that. For the first part of the question, first of all, we don't have a net cash objective or target. The numbers you said could be right. But remember that we have to digest the investment, and although we see, as I said, a very positive market outlook, you have to remember there are always seasonalities and there are always things that could happen.

謝謝你，Caio。關於 CSN，我們沒有任何更新。情況和我們一直以來、以及過去幾季所說的一樣。所以我們沒有什麼可以補充的。至於問題的第一部分，首先，我們沒有設定淨現金的目標或指標。你提到的數字可能是合理的。但請記得，我們需要消化這些投資；而且雖然如我所說，我們看到非常正面的市場展望，但你也要記得，總是會有季節性因素，也總是會有一些可能發生的事情。

So in a sense, we are going to wait a little bit until what to do and if we may change our dividend policy in late 2027 or 2028. We don't have to do it right now. I don't know, Pablo, if you want to add something to that.

因此某種程度上，我們會再觀望一段時間，看看要怎麼做，以及是否會在 2027 年底或 2028 年調整我們的股利政策。我們不必現在就做。Pablo，我不知道你是否想補充一下。

No, just, of course, the numbers could be that one or others, but we will continue to have a CapEx that will be higher than normal. If the trend of prices and volumes that we mentioned are the right one, clearly we will increase our working capital needs, so that will add to the needs of utilization of cash. But in general, as Máximo already mentioned, if the trend is a positive one, this should be a signal for an elevated dividend payment in the future if we believe that this can be sustained.

沒有，只是當然，數字可能是那樣或其他水準，但我們的資本支出（CapEx）將會持續高於正常水準。如果我們提到的價格與出貨量趨勢是正確的，很明顯我們的營運資金需求會增加，這也會增加現金使用需求。但整體而言，正如 Máximo 已經提到的，如果趨勢是正向的，且我們相信這種狀況可以持續，這應該會是未來提高股利發放的訊號。

So I think that the signals are there for a better distribution in the near future, taking into consideration that there will be yet a significant level of cash utilization during the quarter or during the next year. Again, as we always said, sustaining certain level of cash is not something that we consider a negative situation because of all the volatility that Máximo mentioned and the possible opportunities that we may find in the near future after adjusting all the CapEx that we are doing.

所以我認為，考量到本季或明年仍會有相當程度的現金使用，近期朝向更佳的配發（distribution）方向的訊號是存在的。再一次，如同我們一直說的，維持一定水準的現金並不是我們認為的負面情況，因為 Máximo 提到的各種波動性，以及在我們完成目前的資本支出調整後，近期可能出現的機會。

I hope that answer the question, Caio.

希望這回答了你的問題，Caio。

Yes, it does. Thank you, guys.

是的，有回答到。謝謝各位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Carlos de Alba, MS.

Carlos de Alba，MS。

Yes, hello. Thank you very much. Good morning. Just a question, it was on what Máximo said, I think two questions ago. Máximo, did you mention that you see higher margins and maybe higher EBITDA in Q1 2027 versus fourth quarter?

是的，你好。非常感謝。早安。我只有一個問題，是關於 Máximo 先前大概兩個問題前提到的內容。Máximo，你是否提到你看到 2027 年第一季的利潤率更高、也許 EBITDA 也會高於第四季？

Probably, Carlos. Yes. What I said is talking about Mexico, because the question was about Mexico and if we were conservative about volumes in Mexico. I said in the fourth quarter, we are not conservative because usually the fourth quarter in December is not a very big month for Mexico. But we are seeing today that volumes in the first and second quarter are probably higher than the fourth quarter.

很可能是的，Carlos。是的。我當時是在談墨西哥，因為問題是關於墨西哥，以及我們對墨西哥的出貨量是否保守。我說第四季我們並不保守，因為通常第四季的 12 月對墨西哥來說不是很大的月份。但我們目前看到第一季和第二季的出貨量可能會高於第四季。

So the demand is picking up for those months, and we are not seeing much changes in the prices. I mean, we are seeing that the price trend will continue in the first quarter.

所以那幾個月份的需求正在回升，而我們沒有看到價格有太多變化。我的意思是，我們看到價格趨勢會在第一季延續。

Yeah. Thanks for that. I mean, that's what I. When I looked at the guidance for the fourth quarter of a stable EBITDA, my first reaction was that it might be conservative, broadly speaking, maybe not exactly just in Mexico. But look, in Mexico, there is always a lag in pricing. Prices have continued to go up.

好的，謝謝你的說明。我的意思是，當我看到第四季 EBITDA 指引為持平時，我的第一個反應是，整體而言可能偏保守，不一定只是墨西哥。不過你看，在墨西哥，定價通常會有落後效應。價格一直在上漲。

So I would maybe thought that there was room for a better fourth quarter EBITDA than the third quarter. But now I guess maybe stable in the fourth quarter and then room for higher EBITDA in Q1 and Q2.

所以我原本可能會認為，第四季 EBITDA 有空間比第三季更好。但現在我想可能是第四季持平，然後第一季和第二季有空間更高。

That's probably what we are seeing, Carlos, today, because you have to take into account that Brazil also is seasonally low in December. Argentina is very low in December, and then Brazil is low in January also. So all those things, you have to take it into account, and you'll see that probably it's flat in the fourth quarter and something better in the first quarter.

Carlos，這大概就是我們今天看到的情況，因為你也要把巴西在 12 月季節性偏低納入考量。阿根廷在 12 月也非常低，然後巴西在 1 月也偏低。所以你必須把這些因素都考慮進去，你會看到第四季可能是持平，而第一季會好一些。

Great. Thank you very much.

很好。非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn it back over to Máximo Vedoya for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把時間交回給 Máximo Vedoya 作結語。

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us. And as always, if you have any comments or questions, we're always welcome. Have a very good day. Bye bye.

好的，謝謝各位參與。一如往常，如果你們有任何意見或問題，我們都非常歡迎。祝各位有美好的一天。再見。

Ternium conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a good day.

Ternium 法說會到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以斷線，祝您有美好的一天。