使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Welcome, everybody, for this presentation of 2025 results and the objective for 2026. I am here from London. It is sunny, like it's sun for the shares of TotalEnergies, until we speak. So we'll see after this call.
歡迎各位參加本次2025年成果展示及2026年目標展望。我從倫敦來。天氣晴朗,就像道達爾能源的股票一樣一片光明,直到我們開口說話。通話結束後我們再看一次狀況。
I'm happy to be here today with the Executive Committee members. You know all of them, but not Catherine. Catherine, if you could stand up. She is our new member in charge of People & Social Engagement and all global services. That's Catherine. And there's another person which is next to us that you need to know, which is Arnaud Le Foll. Arnaud is our deputy CFO. You will have a chance to listen to him today.
今天很高興能和執行委員會成員們一起在這裡。你認識他們所有人,唯獨不認識凱瑟琳。凱瑟琳,如果你能站起來的話。她是負責人力資源和社會關係以及所有全球服務的新成員。那是凱瑟琳。還有一位坐在我們旁邊的人,你也需要認識一下,他就是阿諾·勒福爾。Arnaud 是我們的副財務長。今天你將有機會聆聽他的演講。
We'll make a presentation in two big parts and two focus in the middle, so to change. First, we'll have, of course, safety moment. The safety and sustainability part will be done by Nicolas Terraz, our President - Upstream. Then, we'll have Jean-Pierre who will make review of the 2025 results.
我們將分兩大部分進行演示,中間有兩個重點,以便進行調整。首先,我們當然要進行安全檢查。安全和永續性部分將由我們的上游總裁 Nicolas Terraz 負責。接下來,Jean-Pierre 將對 2025 年的結果進行回顧。
Then, two small focus. One, Namibia by Arnaud. Because Arnaud, before being deputy CFO, was the one in charge of the negotiation of Namibia. So let's have the opportunity to listen to him. And then Stephane will come in the focus of data centers, AI, as a business for us, but also what we do internally. So just two focus.
然後,重點關注兩個方面。一、阿諾德的《納米比亞》。因為阿諾在擔任副財務長之前,曾負責納米比亞的談判。所以,讓我們有機會聽聽他的意見。然後,Stephane 將重點介紹資料中心、人工智慧,這不僅是我們的一項業務,也是我們內部所做的事情。所以只需要關注兩件事。
And then i will take the last part about what are the objectives for 2026. So normally, if we are respecting the timing, not sure, it should be one hour, one hour and five minutes. We'll see. But be patient when you have time to ask your question.
最後,我將談談2026年的目標是什麼。所以通常情況下,如果我們遵守時間安排,不太確定,應該是1小時,1小時5分鐘。我們拭目以待。但當你有時間提問時,請耐心等待。
So Nicolas, the floor is yours.
尼古拉斯,現在輪到你發言了。
Nicolas Terraz - President - Exploration and Production, Member of the Executive Committee
Nicolas Terraz - President - Exploration and Production, Member of the Executive Committee
Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me take a minute for the sustainability moment. We thought, for this sustainability moment, we'd share with you a very concrete illustration of what we are doing to fight methane emissions. To fight methane emissions, the first step is to detect them. So what we did last year is we installed in all our sites a network of detection and monitoring systems, fixed, continuous.
大家下午好。首先,請容許我花一分鐘時間談談永續發展。在永續發展之際,我們想與大家分享一個非常具體的例子,說明我們為應對甲烷排放所做的工作。要對抗甲烷排放,第一步就是偵測甲烷。所以我們去年所做的,就是在我們所有的站點安裝了一個固定、連續的偵測和監控系統網路。
And what you see in the footage here is a picture or a video taken in Argentina, in Neuquén. We are just commissioning an infrared camera, and this infrared camera detected, what's not a fire, it's methane. And in fact, it's methane coming from underground, from a pipeline which had a pinhole, a very small hole, and was leaking methane in fairly modest quantities. But still, this was detected.
你在這裡看到的畫面或影片是在阿根廷內烏肯拍攝的。我們剛剛調試了一台紅外線攝影機,這台紅外線攝影機偵測到的不是火,而是甲烷。事實上,這是來自地下的甲烷,來自一條管道,管道有一個針孔,一個非常小的孔,洩漏的甲烷量相當少。但是,這仍然被檢測到了。
This was, of course, immediately fixed. So the pipeline was excavated and the leakage fixed. But this really illustrates the role and benefit of permanent methane detection to reach near-zero methane emissions which is our objective by 2030.
這個問題當然立即解決了。於是,管線被挖開,洩漏問題也得到了修復。但這確實說明了永久性甲烷檢測在實現近零甲烷排放方面的作用和益處,而這正是我們到 2030 年的目標。
Let me now move to safety. You see on the slides, we are on a journey of continuous improvement in safety, both for safety at work and for process safety. For safety at work, you see on the left part of the slide our total recordable injury rate which has been continuously decreasing. And last year, we were below 0.5 event per million man hour. So I think we are pleased to be ahead of our peer group.
現在讓我轉移到安全的地方。從投影片中可以看出,我們在安全方面正處於持續改善的進程中,包括工作場所安全和製程安全。為了保障工作場所安全,您可以在投影片的左側看到我們的總可記錄傷害率,該比率一直持續下降。去年,我們的事故發生率低於每百萬工時0.5起。所以我覺得我們很高興能夠領先同行。
Where we are not happy, in fact, is that we had one fatality last year. This happened in Angola during the offloading of drilling casings from a rig to a platform supply vessel where one person working onboard the supply vessel was crushed by those drilling pipes. Manoj Kumar, he was 51 year old. He was married. He had one child.
事實上,我們感到不滿意的是,去年發生了一起死亡事故。這起事故發生在安哥拉,當時正在將鑽井套管從鑽井平台卸載到平台供應船上,一名在供應船上工作的人員被這些鑽井管壓死。馬諾傑·庫馬爾,享年51歲。他已婚。他有一個孩子。
And after the accident, what we did is what we owed to him, which is to take very strong action to reinforce the safety of deck operations onboard our supply vessels; by putting more physical barriers, steel frames for pipe offloading operations; also by taking very strong organizational measures in terms of supervision of the dock operations onboard our supply vessels.
事故發生後,我們所做的就是我們虧欠他的,那就是採取強有力的措施來加強我們供應船上甲板作業的安全;透過增加物理屏障、鋼架來加強管道卸載作業的安全;同時,在監督我們供應船上的碼頭作業方面,也採取了非常強有力的組織措施。
For process safety and prevention of major risks, it's illustrated on the right part of the slide with a reduction of the number of primary losses of containment on our sites which have been decreased by 60% since 2020. And so we are continuing to work on that front today. More than ever, we want to ensure everyone working on our sites, either our staff or contractors, can return home safely. And we aim to achieve zero fatality in our operations.
為了保障製程安全和預防重大風險,幻燈片右側部分展示了我們工廠的主要洩漏事故數量減少情況,自 2020 年以來,該事故數量減少了 60%。因此,我們今天仍在繼續推進這方面的工作。我們比以往任何時候都更希望確保在我們工地工作的每個人,無論是我們的員工還是承包商,都能安全回家。我們的目標是在行動中實現零死亡事故。
I'm now coming to our emissions. Here, we are really pleased that in 2025 we reached and even exceeded all our emission reduction targets. I spoke about methane just before. Now, we are at minus 65% in our methane emissions compared to 2020; we had a target of minus 60%. As I mentioned, we are monitoring this super closely in order to reach near-zeroc methane in three, four years.
現在我要談談我們的排放量。在此,我們非常高興地宣布,我們在 2025 年實現了所有減排目標,甚至超額完成了目標。我之前談到了甲烷。目前,我們的甲烷排放量比 2020 年減少了 65%;我們的目標是減少 60%。正如我之前提到的,我們正在密切監測這一情況,以便在三到四年內實現接近零甲烷排放的目標。
For greenhouse gas, looking at our Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions, you see that last year, for oil and gas operations, we reduced the emissions by 1 million tonnes compared to 2024. And we have a cumulative reduction of 38%.
就溫室氣體而言,從我們的範圍 1 和範圍 2 溫室氣體排放量來看,去年,就石油和天然氣業務而言,我們比 2024 年減少了 100 萬噸排放量。累計減少了 38%。
Also, the gradual evolution of our sales mix is driving down the life cycle carbon intensity of the products we are selling. And you see the figure here, minus 19% in 2025 compared to where we were in 2015.
此外,我們銷售組合的逐步演變正在降低我們所售產品的生命週期碳排放強度。您可以看到這裡的數字,到 2025 年,我們將比 2015 年下降 19%。
On the last point, but not the least one, you know that we've invested $1 billion in energy efficiency improvement program over '23-'25. This is paying off. It's paying off with a reduction in our emissions because the actions implemented through this program resulted in a reduction of 2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions less. But it's also paying off in terms of dollars because this program has generated around $200 million annually of energy on CO2 savings from hundreds, in fact, of actions on our various sites.
關於最後一點,但並非最不重要的一點,您知道我們在 2023 年至 2025 年期間投資了 10 億美元用於能源效率改進計劃。這樣做是有回報的。這項措施正在取得成效,我們的排放量有所減少,因為透過該計劃實施的行動導致二氧化碳當量排放量減少了 200 萬噸。但從經濟角度來看,這項計劃也帶來了回報,因為該計劃每年透過在我們各個場所進行的數百項行動,節省了約 2 億美元的能源和二氧化碳排放。
This was about emissions. And now, I'm going to hand back the floor to Jean-Pierre.
這是關於排放的問題。現在,我要把發言權交還給讓-皮埃爾。
Jean-Pierre Sbraire - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Jean-Pierre Sbraire - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you very much. Good afternoon. I will present to you the 2025 results and the key achievement of the year. You know we have a pretty well-balanced integrated strategy anchored in two pillars. The first one, oil and gas; and the second one, gas and LNG.
非常感謝。午安.我將向大家報告 2025 年的成果和本年度的主要成就。你知道,我們擁有一個相當均衡的綜合戰略,該戰略以兩大支柱為基礎。第一種是石油和天然氣;第二種是天然氣和液化天然氣。
Let me go through the main achievements of 2025. So starting with oil and gas, and oil in particular. You see that we started up two main oil and gas fields, one in the US with Ballymore; another deep offshore development in Brazil with Mero-4.
讓我來介紹一下2025年的主要成就。所以先從石油和天然氣說起,特別是石油。您可以看到,我們已經啟動了兩個主要的油氣田項目,一個是位於美國的 Ballymore 項目;另一個是位於巴西的深海開發項目 Mero-4。
Namibia, it's a very clear achievement of 2025 year. Entering in the block, until now operated by Galp, supporting the Mopane discovery. So entering into that block, of course, is a very clear achievement confirming Namibia as a new, I would say, golden province for TotalEnergies. Arnaud will come back on that to give you more details.
納米比亞,這是2025年一個非常明確的成就。進入先前由 Galp 運營的區塊,為莫帕內礦的發現提供支援。因此,加入該集團當然是一個非常明確的成就,這證實了納米比亞是道達爾能源公司一個新的,我可以說是黃金省。Arnaud稍後會就此事提供更多細節。
To prepare the future, we have reloaded our Exploration portfolio. You see here the different geographies in which we are very active in 2025.
為了迎接未來,我們重新調整了勘探投資組合。您可以在這裡看到我們在 2025 年非常活躍的不同地區。
On the gas and energy side, Rio Grande, we FID, we sanctioned the project, the fourth train in Rio Grande project with an additional 1.5 million tonnes per year of additional LNG offtake. Acquisition of additional interest in Malaysia. You know that we entered into Malaysia very recently, confirming the willingness of TotalEnergies to build a hub that is perfectly positioned to supply the gas market in Asia in the coming years. And continuing the Upstream gas integration in the US with additional acquisition of dry gas in Anadarko Basin.
在天然氣和能源方面,裡奧格蘭德項目,我們已做出最終投資決定(FID),批准了該項目,即裡奧格蘭德項目的第四條生產線,每年可額外生產 150 萬噸液化天然氣。收購馬來西亞的額外股份。您知道我們最近才進入馬來西亞市場,這證實了道達爾能源公司致力於打造一個完美的樞紐,以便在未來幾年為亞洲天然氣市場提供供應。此外,也將持續推動美國上游天然氣整合進程,在阿納達科盆地收購更多乾氣。
And on top of that, end of 2025, we announced the agreement with NEO NEXT, in fact, to merge our Upstream assets with those of NEO NEXT, creating one of the major oil and gas players in the UK, aiming to deliver synergies.
此外,在 2025 年底,我們宣布與 NEO NEXT 達成協議,將我們的上游資產與 NEO NEXT 的資產合併,從而打造英國主要的石油和天然氣企業之一,旨在實現協同效應。
To summarize, yes, we are a growing company. So you see here the figures, 2025, 4% Upstream growth. You know that the guidance is above 3%. So we are largely above the guidance. At the same time, we keep the discipline. I will come back on the CapEx. Here, you see the figure for OpEx per barrel. So the best OpEx per barrel among our peers, $5 per barrel. Of course, it's very important for us to keep this advantage to face a possible low price environment.
總而言之,是的,我們是一家正在成長的公司。所以你看,這裡的數據是,2025 年,上游成長 4%。你知道指導價高於 3%。所以我們基本上高於指導方針。同時,我們保持紀律。我稍後會再討論資本支出問題。這裡顯示的是每桶油的營運成本。因此,在同行中,我們每桶的營運成本最低,為 5 美元。當然,保持這一優勢對於我們應對可能出現的低價環境至關重要。
And very important in our views, the fact that we were able to deliver 120% proved reserve replacement rates. That means that the proved reserve we have at the end of 2025 will cover 12 years of '25 production.
在我們看來,非常重要的一點是,我們實現了 120% 的已證實儲備金替代率。這意味著到 2025 年底,我們已探明的儲量將足以滿足 2025 年 12 年的產量。
On the other pillar, Integrated Power, so another year of delivery of our strategy, more than 20% net power production growth, both coming from renewable and from CCGT, from flexible assets. We mentioned here three main achievements of the year. You know the agreement we signed with EPH that will, in fact, accelerate our gas-to-power integration in Europe, supposed to be closed mid of 2026. Stephane will come back on that.
在另一個支柱——綜合電力方面,我們又一年實現了戰略目標,淨發電量增長超過 20%,這其中既包括再生能源,也包括燃氣渦輪機聯合循環發電和靈活資產。這裡我們提到了今年的三項主要成就。你們知道我們與EPH簽署的協議,該協議實際上將加速我們在歐洲的天然氣發電一體化進程,原計劃於2026年中期完成。史蒂芬會就此事作出回應。
We surfed, I would say, the wave created by data center, (inaudible), to sign 6 terawatt per year PPA with data center, in fact. And implementing our model, I'd say, as you know, we recycle the CapEx, the capital. And so we successfully signed different (inaudible) in the UK, in Greece, in Portugal, in France in '25, recycling the equivalent of $2 billion.
可以說,我們乘著資料中心掀起的浪潮(聽不清楚),與資料中心簽署了每年 6 太瓦的購電協議。如您所知,實施我們的模式,我們會回收資本支出和資金。因此,我們在 2025 年成功地在英國、希臘、葡萄牙和法國簽署了不同的(聽不清楚)協議,回收了相當於 20 億美元的資金。
Scorecard for 2025. Most clearly, we are a growing company, delivering our objectives. First, more energy, clear growth regarding energy production. 5% when you combine the growth coming from oil and gas and the growth coming from electricity.
2025 年成績單。最明顯的是,我們是一家正在成長、實現目標的公司。首先,能源供應增加,能源生產明顯成長。石油天然氣和電力生產的成長合計達5%。
So more specifically on the oil and gas, I already mentioned the fact that we achieve close to 4% growth. You know that the target was above 3%. And for electricity net production, we increased the production by almost 20% between 2024 and 2025, reaching more or less 50 terawatt hour in 2025.
更具體地說,關於石油和天然氣,我已經提到過,我們實現了接近 4% 的成長。你知道目標值高於 3%。至於電力淨產量,我們在 2024 年至 2025 年間將產量提高了近 20%,到 2025 年達到約 50 太瓦時。
Refining utilization rates, so we were clear that during the first semester, ASC has to face some technical incidents, problem of reliability of some of the assets in France or in the US. The second semester, this has been fixed. And so given this performance during the second semester, you see that globally, all in all, over the full year, so refining utilization rates were in line with the targets we had.
提高利用率,因此我們很清楚,在第一學期,ASC 必須面對一些技術事故,以及法國或美國某些資產的可靠性問題。第二學期,這個問題已經解決了。因此,鑑於第二學期的表現,從全球範圍來看,全年整體煉油利用率符合我們的目標。
Energy sales are growing 10% more, compared to last year, in line with the growth in production. And finally, on this topic, more energy, renewable growth install capacity, 24 gigawatts of growth renewable capacity at the end of the year. We were at the 26 gigawatts end of '24. That means that in the course of 2025, we're able to put into production 8 gigawatts of additional growth renewable capacity. And it is the pace we need to achieve 8 gigawatts per year to achieve the target we have for 2030.
與去年相比,能源銷售額成長了 10%,與產量成長一致。最後,關於這個主題,更多的能源,再生能源成長裝置容量,到年底將新增 24 吉瓦再生能源裝置容量。2024年底,我們的裝置容量達到了26吉瓦。這意味著到 2025 年,我們將能夠新增 8 吉瓦的再生能源發電容量。而這正是我們實現每年 8 吉瓦發電量,達到 2030 年目標所需的速度。
So more energy, less emissions. I will not come back on the figures because, already, Nicolas presented that. Just to mention, to summarize, that we are able to lower the emission, maintain Scope 1 and Scoop 2 on our operations while, at the same time, being a growing company, 5% more energy produced in 2025.
這樣可以提高能源利用率,減少排放。我不會再贅述這些數字,因為尼可拉斯已經公佈過了。簡而言之,我們能夠在降低排放的同時,保持營運中的範圍 1 和範圍 2,同時作為一家不斷發展的公司,到 2025 年能源產量將增加 5%。
More energy, less emissions is good. But it's better, of course, to grow the free cash flow to supply the shareholder returns with, of course, two main drivers. The first one, maintaining the discipline on OpEx and maintaining this differentiation advantage we have having an OpEx per barrel at $5 per barrel. And CapEx, we'll come back on that later. So we were, of course, in the guidance at $17.1 billion. So globally, the CFFO, I think, were not exactly available. We anticipate, when we gave the objective, $25 billion, but not very far at $28 billion. So delivering, in our view, a robust cash flow in 2025.
能源利用率高,排放減少是好事。當然,增加自由現金流為股東帶來回報才是更好的選擇,而這主要有兩個驅動因素。第一,要保持營運成本的紀律,並保持我們每桶營運成本為 5 美元的差異化優勢。至於資本支出,我們稍後再談。所以,我們當然達到了預期目標,營收為 171 億美元。因此,我認為,從全球範圍來看,CFFO(現金流出)數據並不完全可用。我們設定目標時預計為 250 億美元,但實際上達到 280 億美元,與目標差距不大。因此,我們認為,2025 年將實現強勁的現金流。
Now, some figures regarding this 2025 performance. So starting on the left-hand side of the slide, the cash flow and the contribution of the different business units to this performance. $28 billion of cash flow generated by operation. You see here the different contributions of Exploration & Production. Introduction of the growing cash flow and the fact, I will comment on that later, cash flow is accretive and growth is accretive.
現在,我們來看看一些關於2025年業績的數據。因此,從幻燈片的左側開始,我們來看現金流以及各個業務部門對績效的貢獻。營運產生的現金流為280億美元。您可以在這裡看到勘探與生產的不同貢獻。引入不斷增長的現金流,以及一個事實(我稍後會對此進行評論),現金流具有增值作用,增長也具有增值作用。
Second portion, Integrated LNG, suffering in 2025 in markets with low volatility, but compensating and through the downward in prices by additional production. I mentioned to you a 10% growth regarding production and sales.
第二部分,綜合液化天然氣,在 2025 年低波動性市場中遭受損失,但透過增加產量來彌補價格下跌的影響。我之前提到過,生產和銷售方面將成長10%。
Integrated Power at $2.6 billion, so in line with our expectations. We have the target to have a cash flow above $2.5 billion for 2025. And Downstream, $6.2 billion, so both R&C and Marketing & Services. I think it's a demonstration of the resilience of the company and the integration between R&C and Marketing & Services. Once again, with better utilization rate during the second semester, Downstream R&C was able to capture the good margin that we benefited from in the second part of the year.
綜合電力業務收入為 26 億美元,符合我們的預期。我們的目標是到 2025 年實現超過 25 億美元的現金流。下游業務為 62 億美元,包括研發、行銷和服務兩部分。我認為這體現了公司的韌性以及研發部門與行銷和服務部門之間的整合。再次,由於第二學期利用率更高,下游研發與控制業務獲得了我們在下半年所受益的良好利潤。
The uses, so I think the yellow parts of the graph. We used more slightly above $17 billion for CapEx, so both organic CapEx acquisition minus divestments. $8 billion in the shareholder returns, with two components. The first one being dividends, so $8.1 billion. So it's the cash-out linked to the dividend taken into account the fixed rates we have in the course of 2025. So it's growing dividends. And we execute the buy back program for an amount of $7.5 billion globally in the full year.
用途,所以我認為是圖表中的黃色部分。我們用於資本支出的金額略高於170億美元,其中包括有機資本支出(收購減去剝離支出)。股東回報為80億美元,由兩部分組成。第一部分是股息,金額為 81 億美元。所以,這是與股息相關的現金提取,考慮到我們在 2025 年的固定利率。所以它的股息不斷在成長。我們全年在全球執行總額達 75 億美元的股票回購計畫。
The net adjusted income reached $15.6 billion. And so we continue to deliver the best-in-class profitability, so return on equity at $13.6 billion; and the best-in-class ROACE at 12.6%. The net income IFRS, so taking into account non-recurring adjustments, it's $13.1 billion for 2025. And this has been done, maintaining a strong balance sheet. So the gearing at the end of the year was below 15%, so that's 14.7%. So globally, total shareholder return 15.6%, so dividend plus buyback, so representing a payout when you compare this return to shareholder to the cash flow we generated in 2025. So it's a payout close to 55%.
經調整後的淨收入達到156億美元。因此,我們繼續保持一流的獲利能力,股本回報率達到 136 億美元;以及一流的資本回報率達到 12.6%。根據國際財務報告準則 (IFRS),考慮到非經常性調整,2025 年的淨收入為 131 億美元。而且,公司已經做到了這一點,並保持了穩健的資產負債表。因此,年底的槓桿率低於 15%,也就是 14.7%。因此,全球股東總回報率為 15.6%,即股息加上回購,因此,當您將此股東回報與我們在 2025 年產生的現金流進行比較時,這代表著一筆派息。所以賠付率接近 55%。
Now CapEx, I already mentioned that. So discipline, of course, maintained through the year 2025. So the guidance, $15 billion to $15.5 billion and so the final figure of $17.1 billion. And so you see the repetition, the splits between the different businesses. So more or less one-third devoted to new oil and gas projects and close to $3.5 billion to low-carbon energy. The main component of that being integrated power.
至於資本支出,我已經提過了。因此,紀律當然會持續到 2025 年。因此,指導意見為 150 億美元至 155 億美元,最終數字為 171 億美元。所以你會看到重複出現的情況,以及不同企業之間的分歧。因此,大約三分之一的資金用於新的石油和天然氣項目,近 35 億美元用於低碳能源。其中最主要的組成部分是整合電源。
This figure is the translation of $16.8 billion spend on organic CapEx, so the spending on the existing portfolio, the existing assets. Plus $3.9 billion devoted to acquisition minus $3.6 billion to divestments. So that means that the M&A was quite balanced in 2025. But if you add the two figures, you end up with a figure at $7.5 billion. So that means that we continue to be very active on our portfolio, divesting mature assets and replacing them by assets with better performance and implementing our strategy regarding, in particular, Integrated Power.
這個數字是168億美元有機資本支出的轉化,也就是對現有投資組合、現有資產的支出。此外,還投入了 39 億美元用於收購,減去 36 億美元用於資產剝離。所以這意味著2025年的併購活動相當平衡。但將這兩個數字加起來,最終得出的數字是 75 億美元。這意味著我們將繼續積極調整投資組合,剝離成熟資產,並用表現更好的資產取而代之,並實施我們的策略,尤其是在綜合電力領域。
So the main acquisition we made for Integrated Power is VSB, the German renewable player. I already mentioned the US, Malaysia. And on the opposite side, divestment, so it's mature assets in Nigeria; in Congo and in Nkossa, just to give you these two examples; in Argentina, assets. And on top of that, all the countries I already mentioned regarding the implementation of strategy, the recycling of the CapEx, the capital, for Integrated Power. We sold divestments in the US and in Europe.
因此,我們為 Integrated Power 進行的主要收購是德國再生能源企業 VSB。我已經提到美國和馬來西亞了。另一方面,還有資產剝離,例如在奈及利亞、剛果和恩科薩(僅舉這兩個例子)以及阿根廷的成熟資產。此外,我前面提到的所有國家都涉及策略實施、資本支出回收以及綜合電力資本。我們出售了在美國和歐洲的資產。
Let's move in more details to look at the Upstream performance in 2025. So once again, growth by 4% and feeded by, of course, a low decline. We benefited from our portfolio of decline by around 4% per year. And on top of that, as you know, we have a very deep portfolio and so in 2025, we were able to put on production additional barrels that globally contributed to 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. And this production is effective, so it's a demonstration. So we increased the production by 4%. But in a constant environment, we increased the Upstream cash flow by 10%.
讓我們更詳細地了解一下 2025 年上游業務的表現。所以,再次實現了 4% 的成長,當然,這是建立在較低的下降幅度之上的。我們的投資組合每年下跌約 4%,我們從中受益匪淺。此外,如您所知,我們擁有非常豐富的產品組合,因此在 2025 年,我們能夠增加產量,使全球日產量達到 15 萬桶石油當量。而且這次演出效果很好,所以這是示範。因此,我們將產量提高了4%。但在環境不變的情況下,我們將上游現金流提高了 10%。
What does it mean? That means that the baseline for our portfolio has, in this environment, $70 per Brent and $12 per Mbtu for gas to generate $19 per barrel of CFFO. And the new projects, so we have the list, by the way, on the right-hand side of the slides, so this 150,000 barrels per oil equivalent of additional production has, on average, of CFFO more than $30 per barrel. So that means that, of course, with the new production we increased the effectivity of the portfolio. And so the difference between this $30 per barrel with the $19 per barrel for the baseline created an additional $700 million in 2025 regarding the CFFO.
這是什麼意思?這意味著,在當前環境下,我們投資組合的基準價格為每桶布蘭特原油 70 美元,每百萬英熱單位天然氣為 12 美元,以產生每桶 19 美元的 CFFO。至於新項目,順便說一下,我們在幻燈片的右側列出了清單,這新增的每桶石油當量 15 萬桶的產量,平均而言,每桶 CFFO 超過 30 美元。所以這意味著,當然,隨著新產品的投產,我們提高了產品組合的效率。因此,每桶 30 美元與基準每桶 19 美元之間的差額,在 2025 年為 CFFO 創造了額外的 7 億美元。
So Integrated Energy, well, it's clear that in 2025, we had a narrowing spread between Asian markets and European markets. So the spread between JKM and TTF that is lower than than before, in most of the cases, below $0.5 per million Mbtu. So why? Because the market is more efficient. And so now, for obvious reason, saving freight costs, the US LNG went, in 2025, mainly, to Europe; and on the opposite, Middle-East LNG went majorly to Asia.
因此,綜合能源方面,很明顯,到 2025 年,亞洲市場和歐洲市場之間的差距將會縮小。因此,JKM 和 TTF 之間的價差比以前要低,在大多數情況下,低於每百萬英熱單位 0.5 美元。為什麼?因為市場效率較高。因此,出於顯而易見的原因,為了節省運費,到 2025 年,美國的液化天然氣主要銷往歐洲;而相反,中東的液化天然氣則主要銷往亞洲。
So in that market, of course, it generated less possibility of arbitrage between the two markets. And on top of that, we had low volatility. All in all, thanks to the growth, the 10% growth in the production and sale, I already mentioned for Integrated Energy, we were able to more or less offset the low price environment, the low volatility environment, posting for Integrated Energy CFFO in 2025 $4.7 billion, so only 4% below 2024 CFFO.
因此,在該市場中,兩個市場之間套利的可能性自然就減少了。除此之外,市場波動性也很低。總而言之,由於成長,生產和銷售成長了 10%(正如我之前提到的,針對綜合能源),我們基本上抵消了低價環境和低波動環境的影響,預計 2025 年綜合能源的 CFFO 為 47 億美元,僅比 2024 年的 CFFO 低 4%。
Integrated Power, we continue the execution of the strategy. I think you have here this year the progression, the increase between 2021 and 2025. So more than doubling the production, multiplied by 3 or multiplied by 4 CFFO and net operating income. And at the end of 2025, we have the ROACE close to 10%.
Integrated Power,我們將繼續執行該策略。我認為今年已經體現了進步,2021 年到 2025 年之間出現了成長。因此,產量翻了一番以上,CFFO 和淨營業收入乘以 3 或 4。到 2025 年底,我們的 ROACE 將接近 10%。
So we execute the strategy. Once again, we (inaudible) down different assets to recycle the CapEx, the capital. We signed this EPH acquisition accelerating our integration in Europe and we scaled up data business with additional relations with tech, signing a PPA with data center to supply them with our electricity. So a good achievement confirming the objective we have for this business segment in 2025.
於是我們執行了這項策略。我們再次(聽不清楚)出售不同的資產來回收資本支出和資金。我們簽署了對 EPH 的收購協議,加速了我們在歐洲的整合,並透過與科技公司建立更多關係擴大了數據業務規模,與數據中心簽署了購電協議,向他們供應我們的電力。這是一項不錯的成就,證實了我們為該業務領域在 2025 年設定的目標。
Ordinary share, you know that on the 8th of December of 2025, I think we opened a new chapter in the history of TotalEnergies. On the 9th, in the US. Now, our ordinary share, so the same share as the share that is listed in Paris, is now listed on the 9th, allowing, in fact, investors to buy the same share either in Paris or in the US. And by the way, by doing that, we have a listing almost around the clock from 9:00 AM in Paris time to 4:30 in New York time.
普通股股東們,你們知道,我認為在 2025 年 12 月 8 日,我們開啟了 TotalEnergies 歷史上的新篇章。9日,在美國。現在,我們的普通股,也就是與在巴黎上市的股票相同的股票,現在在9號上市,實際上允許投資者在巴黎或美國購買同一股股票。順便說一句,透過這種方式,我們幾乎可以全天候提供房源信息,從巴黎時間上午 9:00 到紐約時間下午 4:30。
The objective is clear. We will ease the life of our investors by doing that. We will, of course, try to reach new shareholders that were not able or that do not want to invest in TotalEnergies for the year. And so it's the objective we have in the coming months to try to capture additional investors through a wealth manager and financial advisors. And on top of that, by the way, by doing that, we have an option to use this listing, these shares, listed in New York, as a currency for a potential M&A in the US.
目標很明確。這樣做將減輕投資者的負擔。我們當然會努力接觸那些今年無法或不想投資TotalEnergies的新股東。因此,我們未來幾個月的目標是透過財富管理公司和財務顧問來吸引更多投資者。除此之外,順便說一句,透過這樣做,我們可以選擇將此次上市的股票(在紐約上市的股票)作為在美國進行潛在併購的貨幣。
So the scorecards, the benchmark, the performance of TotalEnergies compared to the performance of our peers with the four main metrics. The first one being the ROACE. Once again, we are the best-in-class in terms of ROACE, I think, for the four consecutive years. In our view, it's a clear demonstration that we can be a leader in the transition while delivering top profitability ROACE.
因此,我們將透過四個主要指標來評估 TotalEnergies 與同業相比的績效,並以此作為基準。第一個是 ROACE。我認為,就 ROACE 而言,我們連續四年都是同類最佳。我們認為,這清楚地表明,我們可以在轉型過程中成為領導者,同時實現最高的獲利能力 ROACE。
Second, TSR, total shareholder returns. Best TSR in 2025 at 28%, so meaning that if you have invested in Total share on the 31st December 2024, at the end of 2025, considering the reinvestment of the dividends, you will have a gain of 28%.
其次,TSR,即股東總回報。2025 年最佳總股東回報率為 28%,這意味著如果您在 2024 年 12 月 31 日投資了 Total 股票,到 2025 年底,考慮到股息再投資,您將獲得 28% 的收益。
Proved reserves life index, so very good and very differentiation factor compared mainly to Chevron, Shell, and BP. So we maintain the 12-year reserves, very good achievements, meaning that with the reserves we have in our portfolio, we are comfortable to feed the growth beyond 2030. And Upstream production cost, low cost, $5 per barrel, so it's a clear competitive advantage that we want to keep.
已探明儲量壽命指數非常高,與雪佛龍、殼牌和英國石油公司相比,這是非常顯著的差異化因素。因此,我們維持了 12 年的儲備,這是非常好的成績,這意味著憑藉我們投資組合中的儲備,我們有能力滿足 2030 年以後的成長需求。上游生產成本低,每桶 5 美元,這是我們想要維持的明顯競爭優勢。
I think I will end the presentation by this slide. I've already commented the TSR, so you know pretty well the policy of TotalEnergies regarding the dividends. So in contributing to this TSR, in 2025, the performance of the share was best-in-class plus 20%. So we strongly believe that our shares continue to be underevaluated. But this is in our view an illustration that the strategy of TotalEnergies is now well-understood by the market.
我想用這張投影片結束我的簡報。我已經評論過 TSR 了,所以你應該很清楚 TotalEnergies 的分紅政策。因此,到 2025 年,該股票的表現為 TSR 做出了貢獻,表現優於同類最佳股票 20%。因此我們堅信,我們的股票仍然被低估了。但我們認為,這表明 TotalEnergies 的策略現在已經被市場充分理解了。
And to summarize, attractive growth, discipline on costs, maintaining CapEx as anticipated, and maintaining OpEx per barrel at low level. And on top of that, delivering all the growth we have in mind on both pillar, oil and gas on one hand, and Integrated power on the other.
總而言之,我們實現了可觀的成長,嚴格控製成本,將資本支出維持在預期水平,並將每桶營運支出維持在較低水平。除此之外,我們還要實現我們在石油和天然氣以及綜合電力這兩個支柱領域的所有成長目標。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Jean-Pierre. That's for '25, the past. So let's speak about, as a bridge between both '25 and '26, Namibia, which was -- we didn't make a special session like on EPH because it came late in December. But it's an opportunity to come back on what we have built with this deal, with agreement with Galp in Namibia, which will be, for us, obviously, a new major hub for our future.
謝謝你,讓-皮埃爾。那是2025年的事了,已經是過去的事了。所以,讓我們來談談納米比亞,作為 2025 年和 2026 年之間的橋樑。由於納米比亞事件發生在 12 月下旬,我們沒有像 EPH 那樣專門舉辦一次會議。但這是一個機會,讓我們能夠重新鞏固我們透過與 Galp 在納米比亞達成的協議所建立的一切,這顯然將成為我們未來一個新的重要樞紐。
Arnaud, the floor is yours.
阿諾,請你發言。
Arnaud Le Foll - Deputy Chief Financial Officer
Arnaud Le Foll - Deputy Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Patrick. Ladies and gentlemen, let me start by setting the context for our progress in Namibia over the past few years.
謝謝你,派崔克。女士們、先生們,首先請容許我介紹一下過去幾年我們在納米比亞的進展背景。
Our exploration and business development efforts in the Orange Basin have led to significant discoveries that are now forming the foundation of a new deepwater golden province for TotalEnergies. And so today, I'm really thrilled to walk you through the steps already taken and what lies ahead.
我們在奧蘭治盆地的勘探和業務開發工作取得了重大發現,這些發現正在為道達爾能源公司打造一個新的深水黃金區。所以今天,我非常興奮地向大家介紹我們已經採取的步驟以及未來的計畫。
So here, you have the core of our position. So of course, two licenses, PEL56 and PEL83. We have already confirmed substantial discovered resources. We begin with two operated deepwater projects, Venus and Mopane. I'll come back to them in more details.
這就是我們立場的核心。所以當然需要兩種許可證,PEL56 和 PEL83。我們已經確認發現了大量的資源。我們首先來看兩個正在運作的深水項目,分別是 Venus 和 Mopane。我稍後會更詳細地談到它們。
Together, what we have already in hand is 1.5 billion barrels of discovered resources. And we see major additional prospects in potential currently being matured.
目前我們已探明的石油資源總量為15億桶。我們看到一些極具潛力的前景正在逐漸成熟。
These two projects, they formed the basis of a new deepwater hub for TotalEnergies, enabling us to plan for future development, of course, but around shared infrastructure, optimized logistics, and economies of scale. So this is really the beginning and materializing the beginning of our presence in this highly prospective basin.
這兩個項目為道達爾能源公司打造了一個新的深水樞紐,使我們能夠規劃未來的發展,當然,也是圍繞共享基礎設施、優化物流和規模經濟展開的。所以,這真正標誌著我們在這個極具發展前景的盆地正式進入市場。
I'll come back to this important milestone, which was the transaction with Galp. So last December, we concluded this cashless transaction with Galp, which we expect to close by the summer, mid this year.
我稍後會再談到這個重要的里程碑,那就是與 Galp 的交易。因此,去年 12 月,我們與 Galp 完成了這筆無現金交易,我們預計該交易將在今年年中夏季結束前完成。
First for us, this deal crystallizes the value of our discoveries. It strengthens our operating position and of course, it opens new opportunities in the country. So on our side, with this transaction, we secure 40% operated interest in PEL83, which is the home to Mopane with already resources identified to end up in a development and more than 1.5 billion barrels of exploration potential opportunities on the same block.
首先對我們來說,這項交易體現了我們研究成果的價值。它鞏固了我們的營運地位,當然,也為我們在這個國家開闢了新的機會。因此,透過此交易,我們獲得了 PEL83 40% 的營運權益,該油田是 Mopane 油田的所在地,已探明的資源將最終用於開發,並且該區塊還有超過 15 億桶的勘探潛力。
In return, what we give to Galp is a 10% interest in PEL56, which is the home to Venice, and slightly less interest in the neighboring PEL91 exploration block. Plus, we'll carry them for 50% of their expenditures for appraisal, exploration -- exploration appraisal and for the first development on the block.
作為回報,我們給予 Galp 10% 的 PEL56 權益(威尼斯油田所在地),以及略少一些的鄰近 PEL91 勘探區塊的權益。此外,我們將承擔他們評估、勘探(勘探評估)和區塊首次開發費用的 50%。
So as a result, TotalEnergies becomes the anchor player in one of the world's most dynamic basins with stronger alignment across the value chain, which is illustrated here on the slide. It shows how Venus and Mopane make TotalEnergies, the reference operator in Namibia definitely.
因此,道達爾能源成為全球最具活力的盆地之一的龍頭企業,在整個價值鏈上實現了更緊密的協調,這在幻燈片中有所體現。它展示了 Venus 和 Mopane 如何使 TotalEnergies 成為納米比亞的參考營運商。
As you know, with 10 FPSOs already operated across Africa, with one new being in construction currently, we definitely benefit from a broad deepwater projects experience in the region. This enables us to deliver fast and reliable execution, proven low-cost development, strong long-term relationship with contractors, and efficient scaling of procurement, logistics, engineering.
如您所知,我們在非洲已經運營了 10 艘 FPSO,目前還有一艘新的 FPSO 正在建造中,我們在該地區豐富的深水項目經驗無疑對我們大有裨益。這使我們能夠快速可靠地執行項目,實現低成本開發,與承包商建立牢固的長期合作關係,並有效率地擴展採購、物流和工程規模。
This experience was definitely an important factor in our selection as operator of PEL83 and for the authorities of Namibia to bring their full support to the transaction. They definitely see us as a credible partner in the basin.
這次經歷無疑是我們被選為 PEL83 營運商的重要因素,也是納米比亞當局全力支持這項交易的重要因素。他們肯定把我們視為該流域內值得信賴的合作夥伴。
On the left-hand side, the production profile shows how Venus and then Mopane could sequentially ramp up from 2030 to reach about 350 KB/D of production with additional upsides thereafter. So our objective is clear, and we got it. We want to establish a sustainable multi FPSO hub in Namibia to maximize synergies for the benefit of all the stakeholders.
左側的生產概況顯示,從 2030 年開始,金星 (Venus) 和莫帕內 (Mopane) 將如何逐步提高產量,達到約 350 KB/D 的日產量,此後還有進一步的成長空間。所以我們的目標很明確,而且我們達成了。我們希望在納米比亞建立一個可持續的多FPSO樞紐,以最大限度地發揮協同效應,造福所有利害關係人。
Turning to Venus in more detail. So Venus is our first development. Venus is fully appraised with around 750 million barrels of resources. The engineering is well advanced. The FEED is complete. And today, with recent EPC bids, we have confidence in the visibility and cost.
接下來,我們將更詳細地探討金星。所以金星是我們的第一個開發案。金星的石油儲量經全面評估約為7.5億桶。這項工程技術已經非常先進。FEED 已完成。今天,根據最近的EPC投標結果,我們對專案的可見性和成本充滿信心。
Key parameter of the project. So it's a 150 KB/D plateau production with costs below $20 per barrel. In terms of Scope 1+2 emission intensity, we are around 15 kg per barrel, featuring the same low emission design as in our GranMorgu FPSO. So full electric architecture, centralized power gen, closed flares, vapor recovery units, et cetera.
項目的關鍵參數。所以這是一個日產量 150 千桶的平台期產量,成本低於每桶 20 美元。就範圍 1+2 的排放強度而言,我們約為每桶 15 公斤,採用與 GranMorgu FPSO 相同的低排放設計。因此,採用全電氣化架構、集中式發電、封閉式火炬、蒸汽回收裝置等。
We are now fully engaged with the Namibian authorities to progress towards an FID by mid-2026, allowing the first oil in 2030. So Venice is expected to become the first FPSO development in the country and is really the opener of the basin as a new producing region.
我們現在正與納米比亞當局全面合作,爭取在 2026 年年中做出最終投資決定,從而在 2030 年實現首次產油。因此,威尼斯有望成為該國第一個 FPSO 開發項目,並真正開啟該盆地作為新的生產區域。
The second project is Mopane, which is progressing in parallel. We have current estimates from 800 million to 1,100 million barrels of resources which will allow production above 200KB/D. We plan the short-term on exploration and appraisal campaign, so in '26 and '27, to refine the development concept and confirm the size of the first phase, including 2026, the Mopane extension well and thereafter, two appraisal wells.
第二個項目是莫帕內,它與第一個項目並行。我們目前估計資源量為 8 億至 11 億桶,這將使每日產量超過 20 萬桶。我們計劃在 2026 年和 2027 年進行短期勘探和評估活動,以完善開發概念並確認第一階段的規模,包括 2026 年的 Mopane 延伸井,以及之後的兩口評估井。
Like Venice, with Mopane, we target emissions intensity below 15 kg per barrel and costs below $20 a barrel, of course, taking full benefit from the synergies with Venice. So with potential FID in 2028, Mopane is the second pillar of our Namibia strategy, which will contribute significantly in production beyond 2030 and with additional potential from prospects such, as you can see on the map, Quiver or Sobreiro in the same license.
與威尼斯石油一樣,我們對莫帕內石油的目標排放強度為每桶 15 公斤以下,成本為每桶 20 美元以下,當然,還要充分利用與威尼斯石油的協同效應。因此,莫帕內油田預計在 2028 年做出最終投資決定,它是我們納米比亞戰略的第二大支柱,將在 2030 年後為產量做出重大貢獻,並且還有來自其他前景的額外潛力,例如,正如您在地圖上看到的,同一許可證下的 Quiver 或 Sobreiro 油田。
Finally, let me zoom out and have a look at our broader exploration portfolio in the basin. So beyond Venice and Mopane, we see around 10 billion barrels of exploration potential across multiple prospects -- so to the south with our licenses, the DWOB and 3B/4B and material well-defined prospects in South Africa; and to the north with the recent signature of our entry into PL-104 that expands our operated acreage in Namibia.
最後,讓我從更宏觀的角度來看看我們在盆地的勘探組合。因此,除了威尼斯和莫帕內之外,我們看到多個勘探前景蘊藏著約 100 億桶的勘探潛力——向南,我們擁有南非的許可證,包括 DWOB 和 3B/4B 以及一些定義明確的實質前景;向北,我們最近簽署了 PL-104 協議,擴大了我們在納米比亞的作業面積。
So you can see, with discovered resources, prospective upsides, and strong operational capabilities, we think we are well positioned to lead the next development cycle in the Orange Basin.
因此,您可以看到,憑藉已發現的資源、潛在的成長空間和強大的營運能力,我們認為我們有能力引領奧蘭治盆地的下一個開發週期。
So in summary, Venice and Mopane are large, competitive, low emissions deepwater projects. For Namibia, these projects are important. They are the projects that represent the first steps to establishing domestic oil industry in the country. And with wider exploration portfolio, we have meaningful upsides in the future.
總而言之,威尼斯和莫帕內都是規模龐大、具競爭力、低排放的深水計畫。對於納米比亞來說,這些項目非常重要。這些項目標誌著該國建立國內石油工業的第一步。憑藉更廣泛的勘探組合,我們未來擁有巨大的發展潛力。
So this all together forms the foundation of a new golden province for TotalEnergies with a multi-FPSO hub with strong long-term potential, all operated by TotalEnergies.
因此,這一切共同構成了道達爾能源公司新黃金地段的基礎,該地段擁有一個具有強大長期潛力的多FPSO樞紐,全部由道達爾能源公司營運。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Arnaud. I think you will have some questions, but we'll gave you more insights. I was, myself, in Namibia last week; and we discussed with the authorities. And what Arnaud said is true. We are considered now as a major player there, and it gave us a good momentum to move forward these projects.
謝謝你,阿諾。我想你可能會有一些疑問,但我們會給你更多見解。我上週親自去了納米比亞;我們與當地政府進行了討論。阿諾說的沒錯。我們現在被認為是那裡的主要參與者,這給了我們推進這些項目的良好動力。
Now, I give the floor to Stéphane. We'll make a second focus on one of the other major activity, which is of course, taking benefit from this AI and data center revolution. Stéphane Michel, the floor is yours.
現在,我把發言權交給史特凡。我們將重點放在另一項主要活動,那就是充分利用人工智慧和資料中心革命帶來的機會。史蒂芬·米歇爾,請你發言。
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Patrick. Good afternoon, everyone. So we'll cover two subjects. One is how we are going to power the AI revolution with our integrated power supply. And the second part will be how we plan to boost our operation by using AI.
謝謝你,派崔克。大家下午好。所以我們將討論兩個主題。其一是我們將如何利用我們的整合電源為人工智慧革命提供動力。第二部分將介紹我們如何規劃利用人工智慧來提升營運效率。
So I start by the first subject with a simple message. We are creating additional value by providing to data centers fit-for-purpose solutions. How do we do that? What do we sell them? There are three types of products with three level of sophistication.
所以我先從第一個主題開始,寫一封簡單的訊息。我們透過向資料中心提供合適的解決方案來創造更多價值。我們該如何做到這一點?我們賣給他們什麼?產品分為三種類型,每個類型又分為三個複雜程度等級。
The first one is the usual corporate PPA, as produced. It's quick to build, fast for them to connect, but it's not baseload. It's just 100% green and quite competitive.
第一份是通常的企業購電協議,按原樣出具。它搭建速度快,連線速度也快,但它不是基礎負載。它完全是綠色環保的,而且競爭力很強。
The second product is to provide them with clean firm power. What does that mean? That means a baseload profile, what exactly they need, and what they are going to consume, supplied mostly by renewables so that 100% of the volume of energy which is consumed is coming from green production, but at the same time matching their profile of consumption.
第二款產品是提供他們清潔穩定的電力。這意味著什麼?這意味著要製定一個基本負載曲線,明確他們究竟需要什麼,以及他們將要消耗什麼,主要由再生能源供應,以便100%的能源消耗量來自綠色生產,同時還要滿足他們的消費模式。
And the third product which is new and which is quite specific to data centers actually is the fact that we can provide them as well with a solution to have access to land to build their data center -- and not every land, a specific land which is close to a grid where we have access to the connection and where it's going to be fast for them to build their data center and to get the power supply they need. I will give you an example of that.
第三款新產品是專門針對資料中心的,我們可以為他們提供解決方案,讓他們能夠獲得建造資料中心所需的土地——而且不是任何土地,而是靠近電網的特定土地,我們可以連接電網,這樣他們就能快速建造資料中心並獲得所需的電力供應。我給你舉個例子。
Typically, the first kind of product is what we have sold to Microsoft and Amazon, AWS, in '25. Second type of product is what we are, for example, doing with Casa dos Ventos in Brazil. And the first one is what we have just signed with Google in Texas and with prospect in notably in Spain.
通常來說,第一類產品是我們2025年賣給微軟和亞馬遜AWS的產品。第二類產品就是我們正在做的,例如我們在巴西的 Casa dos Ventos 計畫。第一份合約是我們剛剛與德克薩斯州的谷歌以及西班牙的潛在合作夥伴簽署的。
Why does that matter? Because with those kinds of offers, the data center is able to create more value because they are going to have a faster time to market and, second, they are going to have a lower cost of supply. And when you create value, you are able to share at least a part of it.
這為什麼重要?因為有了這些優惠,資料中心就能創造更多價值,首先,它們能更快地將產品推向市場;其次,它們的供應成本會更低。當你創造價值時,你至少可以分享其中的一部分。
And that's the way we are able to increase the level of the PPA we are selling, extracting a bit of premium, around 10% of premium, of what we sell if we were selling the same electrons to any type of industry. So there is a direct impact which helps us to upgrade our double-digit return on our CapEx.
正因如此,我們才能提高我們銷售的 PPA 水平,從中賺取一些溢價,大約比我們向任何類型的行業銷售相同電力時高出 10%。因此,這將直接幫助我們提高資本支出兩位數的報酬率。
And there is as well an indirect impact because you are bringing consumption locally which helps to develop your pipe of projects, that's one; and second, to raise the price where -- the power price where you are -- which benefit to your other assets.
此外,還有間接影響,因為您在當地引入消費,這有助於發展您的專案儲備,這是一方面;另一方面,提高您所在地的電價,這將有利於您的其他資產。
So all that is not an ambition. It's not on paper. It's a reality. We have signed, us and our partner through our JV, 4 gigawatts of project backed by data center demand in 2005 and -- '25 and '26. You can see the geographic spread.
所以,這一切都不是我的抱負。它沒有寫在紙上。這是事實。我們和我們的合作夥伴透過我們的合資企業簽署了 4 吉瓦的項目,該項目得到了 2005 年、2025 年和 2026 年資料中心需求的支持。你可以看到地理分佈範圍。
One-third was done directly by us. Others were done by Clearway and Casa and with a variety -- Casa dos Ventos in Brazil with a variety of type of player, the big [GAFA], but as well some specific data center developer. All that will generate $250 million per year of EBITDA when all the projects are materialized.
其中三分之一是我們直接完成的。其他項目由 Clearway 和 Casa 完成,合作方多種多樣——例如巴西的 Casa dos Ventos,合作方包括各種類型的玩家,大型 [GAFA],以及一些特定的數據中心開發商。所有專案全部實現後,每年將產生 2.5 億美元的 EBITDA。
I'm going to focus on two specific projects. The first one is what we just signed with Google in Texas. It's a deal that comes after what we did in Malaysia. So we are going to build a 1-gigawatt farm. That has started. We are going to sell them the 2-terawatt hour produced by that 1-gigawatt farm. So I would say that's quite classical.
我將專注於兩個具體項目。第一份是我們剛在德州與Google簽署的協議。這是繼我們在馬來西亞所做的事情之後達成的協議。所以我們要蓋一個1吉瓦的發電廠。這已經開始了。我們將把那座1吉瓦發電廠生產的2太瓦時電力賣給他們。所以我覺得很經典。
But in addition, Google has the option and should exercise this option to install a data center close to our solar panel production. So on our land, what we are going to provide them with is a direct access to our solar production, a direct access to the grid as well because we have asked to be able to withdraw some power from the grid and should obtain it soon, and as well, the possibility to install some battery so as to smooth the profile.
此外,Google可以選擇(也應該行使)在我們太陽能板生產地點附近建造資料中心。因此,在我們的土地上,我們將為他們提供直接連接太陽能發電系統的途徑,以及直接連接電網的途徑,因為我們已經申請能夠從電網提取一些電力,並且應該很快就能獲得批准。此外,我們還將提供安裝一些電池以平滑電力曲線的可能性。
And with all that, they are going to be able to go fast to the market next year and as well, to lower the cost of supply, notably because they will lower the grid fee they are going to pay. So that's one type of example where thanks to that, we are able to sell to Google a PPA at a slightly higher price than the average price in the market.
有了這些,他們明年就能快速進入市場,而且,由於他們將降低支付給電網的費用,供應成本也會降低。所以,正因為如此,我們才能以略高於市場平均價格的價格向Google出售PPA。
Second example which is interesting is what we do in Brazil. Here, we are blending solar, wind we have in our portfolio, hydro we purchase from the market to provide data center with clean firm power -- so 24/7 baseload supply, 100% green. And not only we are doing that, but with Casa, we are as well providing to the data center land near a connection where we have secured that connection to the grid so that they can build fast their data center.
第二個有趣的例子是我們巴西的做法。在這裡,我們將太陽能、我們投資組合中的風能以及我們從市場上購買的水力發電結合起來,為資料中心提供清潔穩定的電力——從而實現全天候基本負載供電,100% 綠色環保。我們不僅這樣做,而且透過 Casa,我們還向資料中心提供靠近電網連接的土地,以便他們能夠快速建造資料中心。
And in addition, in Brazil they are going to benefit from a tax favored situation on one side and, on another side, by participating as well in equity to our project, benefit from other subsidies. So all that makes a very, very competitive offer.
此外,在巴西,他們一方面將享受稅收優惠,另一方面,透過參與我們專案的股權投資,還將獲得其他補貼。因此,所有這些因素共同構成了一個非常有競爭力的報價。
And once again, for us, what is the advantage? We improve our return. We find the consumption to develop the multi-gigawatt pipes that we have. And we create as well a demand in a region of Brazil where otherwise, part of the assets would be developed in several years. Now, we can develop them now and have a faster development pace.
那麼,對我們來說,優勢又是什麼呢?我們提高了回報率。我們發現,開發我們現有的多吉瓦管道需要消耗一定的能源。而且,我們也在巴西的一個地區創造了需求,否則,該地區的部分資產需要幾年時間才能開發完畢。現在,我們可以立即開發它們,並加快開發速度。
I move now to my second part on, what are we going to do with AI for our own operation? First idea, there is no AI program if you don't have a strong data platform. And so we have spent a lot of time and effort in 2025 -- Namita and Wintech has spent a lot of effort and time on that, was to build the foundation of our data platform with two ideas in mind.
現在我進入第二部分,探討我們將如何利用人工智慧來開展我們自己的業務?首先,如果沒有強大的數據平台,就沒有人工智慧程式。因此,我們在 2025 年投入了大量的時間和精力——Namita 和 Wintech 也投入了大量的時間和精力——是為了建立我們的數據平台的基礎,心中懷抱著兩個想法。
One, we want to multiply, and we are going to multiply by 10, the data points we have on our assets because AI is really about a lot of data and very precise data. So that's one aspect. And second, we want to have them in real time because we want to be able to act in real time when we manage our assets.
第一,我們要將我們資產的數據點數量乘以 10,因為人工智慧實際上涉及大量數據和非常精確的數據。這是其中一個面向。其次,我們希望能夠即時掌握這些訊息,因為我們希望在管理資產時能夠即時採取行動。
And so to do that, we have signed big contract with AspenTech which is going to deploy [animation] on all our -- 40 of our upstream sites and 16 of our refining and chemical sites. It was already done for the integrated power aspect. So that's the layer of how to get the data.
因此,為了實現這一目標,我們與 AspenTech 簽訂了一份大合同,AspenTech 將在我們所有的 40 個上游工廠和 16 個煉油和化工工廠部署 [動畫]。整合電源方面已經完成了。這就是獲取數據的方法。
And then we have signed as well with Cognite on how to transform, enrich, store, expose those data so that we can then add the last layer which will be based on AI to, at the end of the day, uplift our production and our availability. So that's ongoing and should be deployed -- fully deployed by the end of next year.
然後,我們還與 Cognite 簽署了協議,約定如何轉換、豐富、儲存和公開這些數據,以便我們最終能夠添加基於人工智慧的最後一層,從而提高我們的生產效率和可用性。所以這項工作正在進行中,應該會在明年年底前全面部署。
That's one aspect. The second aspect is that when you have the data, you need to do something with the data. And so we have worked on focusing our effort, and this time more on a top-down approach than bottom up, on the free program.
這是一方面。第二點是,當你擁有數據時,你需要對數據做一些事情。因此,我們努力將精力集中在免費項目上,這次更多地採用自上而下的方法,而不是自下而上的方法。
One is using digital for HSE. You had an example with the safety moment where we are using digital to improve monitoring and reduce emissions. There are two other programs, one which is on the digital plant, how to improve the way we run our plant.
一是利用數位化手段進行健康、安全與環境管理。您舉了一個安全方面的例子,我們利用數位化手段來改善監控並減少排放。還有另外兩個項目,一個是關於數位化工廠的,探討如何改善我們工廠的運作方式。
And the last program is on integrated power modeling. There is a huge revolution on the modalization. Just to take an example, with AI, you can cut by two the time you need to forecast weather in a quite convincing way. You can imagine when you trade short-term power, what that chance to get to work in advance when you make your weather forecast.
最後一個節目是關於整合的電力建模。模態化方面正在發生巨大的變化。舉個例子來說,借助人工智慧,你可以將天氣預報所需的時間縮短一半,而且效果相當不錯。你可以想像一下,當你進行短期電力交易時,提前做好天氣預報的機會有多大。
And that's just the beginning. Obviously, to do that, we need to increase our work capacity. And we have made the choice to do that by betting on India by building a global competency center in India to be able to develop those programs.
而這只是個開始。顯然,要做到這一點,我們需要提高我們的工作能力。我們選擇押注印度,在印度建立一個全球能力中心,以便能夠開發這些項目。
I don't have to explain why India, but our idea is, one, that will be our center with our own staff. Second idea, we want to manage all that to give them tasks end to end, which means that they will be fully accountable for all those programs. And we should reach a critical mass of at least 500 engineers by 2027. That has already started.
我無需解釋為什麼選擇印度,但我們的想法是,第一,印度將成為我們的中心,擁有我們自己的員工。第二個想法是,我們希望管理所有這些項目,給他們分配端到端的任務,這意味著他們將對所有這些項目負全部責任。到 2027 年,我們應該會達到至少 500 名工程師的臨界規模。這已經開始了。
And that's the way. So we plan to use AI to transform the way we act. One discovery, though, my presentation was not yet done by an agent. So that's probably for next year. Thank you.
就是這樣。因此,我們計劃利用人工智慧來改變我們的行為。不過我發現,我的簡報還沒有由代理人完成。所以這大概要等到明年了。謝謝。
And with that, I leave the floor to Patrick. Thank you.
接下來,我把發言權交給派崔克。謝謝。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Stéphane. Because this week -- next week, each executive of the company will be trained to have at least one agent with him. I don't know which one I will have. It will be difficult for him to follow me, but we'll see.
謝謝你,斯特凡。因為本周到下週,公司每位高階主管都會接受培訓,確保自己至少有一名代理人在身邊。我不知道我會選哪一個。他很難追上我,但我們拭目以待。
So I will take the last part of the presentation now. Thank you, Stéphane. And thank you, Namita, by the way, because the second part is largely led by Namita. She knows very well India, by the way.
現在我將進行演講的最後一部分。謝謝你,斯特凡。順便說一句,謝謝你,娜米塔,因為第二部分主要由娜米塔領導。順便說一句,她非常了解印度。
So let's move to the 2026 objective. We are not fully on time, but I will try to catch up even if I know I like to speak. So I'm not sure I'll catch up completely.
那麼,讓我們來看看2026年的目標。雖然時間還沒完全到,但我會努力跟上,即使我知道我喜歡說話。所以我不太確定我能不能完全趕上。
So '26 in fact is a very clear continuation year for 2025. The program is the same. We'll continue to deliver our growth in oil and gas, growth in integrated power. This growth you will see is also accretive. The new barrels continue, and our cash flow from operation will grow quicker than the growth itself.
所以,2026 年實際上是 2025 年的一個非常明顯的延續年份。程序是一樣的。我們將繼續實現石油天然氣和綜合電力業務的成長。你將看到的這種成長也是累積性的。新桶裝石油持續供應,我們的營運現金流成長速度將超過石油本身的成長速度。
And at the same time, because we think the environment might be more, I would say, challenging in 2026, we have -- as you know, we told you that in September -- launched a cash saving program in order to strengthen the resilience.
同時,由於我們認為 2026 年的環境可能會更具挑戰性,因此——正如你們所知,我們在 9 月告訴你們——我們啟動了一項現金節約計劃,以增強抵禦能力。
I would say as well that you will see in the presentation, the integrated power business is growing. We reached $3 billion of cash flow and by itself, in fact, because it's independent of the cycles of oil and gas. It reinforces the resilience of the global model of the company.
我還想說,正如您將在簡報中看到的那樣,整合式電源業務正在成長。我們實現了 30 億美元的現金流,而且這完全是靠自身的力量實現的,因為它與石油和天然氣的週期無關。它增強了公司全球模式的韌性。
So word on the markets. I will not tell you what the price is, by the way. We are planning everything at [60]. And we are at [71 or 72] so you know things are -- we prefer the one, [72]. But the fundamentals, what we think, is that yes, there is a demand. No more in '27, '25, a little less than 1 million barrel of oil per day. So it's a little less than 1%, but it's continuing.
市場消息來了。順便說一句,我不會告訴你價格是多少。我們正在計劃一切。[60]我們現在是[71或72],所以你知道情況是-我們更喜歡第一個,[72]但從根本上來說,我們認為,確實存在需求。1927 年、1925 年,石油日產量略低於 100 萬桶。所以雖然略低於1%,但這種情況仍在持續。
We don't see any peak demand coming in front of us at this stage. I don't know it will come. We saw also -- and we've seen in fact '25 were in fact quite stable, around $70. People speak about volatility as the reality, but it went down. But it was moving quite around the $69 per barrel.
現階段我們預計不會有任何需求高峰。我不知道它是否會到來。我們還看到——事實上我們已經看到 '25 的價格實際上相當穩定,在 70 美元左右。人們常說市場波動是常態,但實際上市場卻下跌了。但價格一直在每桶 69 美元附近波動。
We've seen at the beginning of the year that the fundamentals that we think, which is a good supply, and the events in Venezuela, we went down to $60. But then reactions are twofold, then OPEC decided not to stop relinquishing more oil in the market. And also, we began to see in the US, US shale producers begin to reduce drilling. So $60 balance is not yet there.
今年年初,我們看到,我們認為的基本面(即良好的供應)以及委內瑞拉的事件,導致油價跌至 60 美元。但隨之而來的反應是雙重的,歐佩克決定繼續向市場投放更多石油。而且,我們也開始看到美國頁岩油生產商開始減少鑽探活動。所以帳戶裡還沒有60美元。
Additionally on that, you had other events geopolitically. I think the most important one is maybe not Iran for me. It's the fact that most of the countries now are serious about taking -- putting sanctions against Russian oil in a more stringent way. We've seen that, and this is an impact on the market.
此外,還有其他地緣政治事件。對我來說,最重要的或許不是伊朗。事實是,現在大多數國家都認真考慮採取更嚴格的措施來制裁俄羅斯石油。我們已經看到了這一點,這對市場產生了影響。
Today, you have more and more Russian oil on the sea which does not find a buyer. The Indians are not buying -- Indian refiners, Russian crude oil for March, April. So this we see has an impact, I think, on the market.
如今,越來越多的俄羅斯石油滯留在海上,卻找不到買家。印度人不買——印度煉油商不買俄羅斯3月、4月的原油。所以我認為這會對市場產生影響。
Remember that Russian oil exports in the market is 3 million to 4 million barrels of oil per day, so it really matters. We still keep a view that fundamentals, good supply -- despite what I just said, good demand but still supply. We plan at $60 per barrel, and this explains a certain number of decisions that I will present to you.
請記住,俄羅斯每天向市場出口300萬至400萬桶石油,所以這真的很重要。我們仍然堅持認為,基本面良好,供應充足——儘管我剛才說了,需求良好,但供應仍然充足。我們的計畫價格是每桶 60 美元,這也解釋了我將要向你們介紹的一些決定。
On the gas side, I would say '26 is more a transition year. We were at 400 million tonnes per year of capacity of LNG in '22. '25, we were at 435 million -- so in three or four years only, 30 million tonnes, which was either not enough to absorb the increase of European demand. The European demand went up from 70 -- 65 million tonnes in 22 to 115 million, so it has increased by 50 million tonnes.
從天然氣來看,我認為 2026 年更像是個過渡年。2022 年,我們的液化天然氣年產能為 4 億噸。 2025 年,我們的產能為 4.35 億噸——也就是說,短短三、四年時間,就增加了 3,000 萬噸,這不足以消化歐洲需求的成長。歐洲的需求量從 2022 年的 7,000 萬至 6,500 萬噸增加到 1.15 億噸,增加了 5,000 萬噸。
And this year, in '26, yes, there is some capacity which will be put on stream in the US, in Qatar, but we think an additional 35 million tonnes will come. Transition year, which means we translated it by moving TTF from $12 per million BTU last year to $10, but not yet lower.
今年,也就是 2026 年,美國和卡達確實會有一些產能投入運營,但我們認為還會增加 3,500 萬噸的產能。過渡年,這意味著我們將其調整為 TTF 從去年的每百萬 BTU 12 美元降至 10 美元,但還沒有更低。
By the way, today, with winter time we are still at $12. But we've seen it could go down. I think transition as well because there is one event which is the fact that the EU has decided to ban Russian gas from '27. And this will give an additional demand in the EU from 115 million to 150 million tonnes.
順便說一下,現在是冬天,價格仍然是 12 美元。但我們已經看到它可能會下跌。我認為這也是轉型期,因為有一件事是歐盟決定從 2027 年起禁止俄羅斯天然氣。這將使歐盟的需求增加 1.15 億至 1.5 億噸。
We have an additional 35 million tonnes per year of energy coming in '27, which is almost the increase of capacity of '26. So yes, we will see this market. We will see for sure the global capacity moving from [400 to 600] by '29, 2030; but the impact on the price in our view will be gradual.
2027 年我們將新增 3,500 萬噸能源,幾乎相當於 2026 年產能的增幅。所以,是的,我們會看到這個市場。我們肯定會看到全球產能從 2030 年的 400 到 600 不等;但我們認為,對價格的影響將是漸進的。
And '27 will not yet be, I think, the low cycle of this gas price, of the energy price. Having said that, we know we have taken actions to face it.
我認為,2027 年還不會是天然氣價格,也就是能源價格的低潮期。儘管如此,我們知道我們已經採取措施應對它。
'26, our objectives. So again, the growth, 5% energy growth globally, 3% on oil and gas. I don't think we'll reach 4%. By the way, I said to Nicolas, if you think you can reach 4%, tell me now because the market likes the future, not just the past results. So tell me now, but it didn't tell me that.
'26,我們的目標。所以,再次強調,全球能源成長5%,其中石油和天然氣成長3%。我不認為我們能達到4%。對了,我對尼可拉斯說,如果你認為你能達到 4% 的收益率,現在就告訴我,因為市場喜歡的是未來,而不僅僅是過去的業績。所以現在告訴我,但它並沒有告訴我。
So let's 3%. On electricity net production, we should grow by 25% above 60 terawatt-hour. Of course, there is a link to when we'll close the EPH deal, but I'm comfortable with this objective.
那就定在3%吧。在電力淨產量方面,我們應該在60太瓦時以上成長25%。當然,這與我們何時完成 EPH 交易有關,但我對這個目標感到滿意。
Refining utilization rate, the real objective -- will come back from Vincent and his team -- is to stop having some issues on big assets and availability plus 2%. So refining utilization rate is maybe not the best factor to translate it into economics.
提高利用率的真正目標——Vincent 和他的團隊將給出答案——是停止在大資產和可用性方面出現一些問題,並提高 2%。因此,精煉利用率可能並不是將其轉化為經濟效益的最佳指標。
Energy sales will continue to grow our production, 6%. So it will be translated by sales. In the sales of energy of Stéphane teams, there are some spot volume. So this is why we keep -- let's keep above 44 million tonnes.
能源銷售將繼續成長,使我們的產量增加 6%。所以,這將由銷售部門翻譯。在Stéphane團隊的能源銷售中,有一些現貨交易量。所以這就是為什麼我們要保持——讓我們保持在 4400 萬噸以上。
And on the renewable gross install capacity, 34 to 42 plus 8 gigawatts. This is the road map of the teams of integrated power.
再生能源總裝置容量為 34 至 42 吉瓦,另加 8 吉瓦。這是整合權力團隊的路線圖。
Less emissions. In methane, I think we will reach sooner than we thought the minus 80%. We have put a target at minus 70%, but every year, we do 5% more. So we'll continue to deploy the whole program. And we are the only company to have deployed 11,000 devices to make permanent monitoring. So we have a clear leadership, and I think it's a real direct contribution to climate.
減少排放。我認為,甲烷含量下降到-80%的速度會比我們預想的要快。我們設定的目標是減排 70%,但每年我們都超額完成 5%。因此,我們將繼續部署整個專案。我們是唯一一家部署了 11,000 台設備進行永久監控的公司。因此,我們擁有明確的領導階層,我認為這對應對氣候變遷做出了真正的直接貢獻。
The heating power of methane is much higher than other greenhouse gas, so I think this is a good focus for the company and our capacity to demonstrate results. For the other parameters, we continue to lower Scope 1 and 2 from operated facilities.
甲烷的加熱能力遠高於其他溫室氣體,所以我認為這對公司來說是一個很好的研究方向,也展現了我們所取得成果的能力。對於其他參數,我們繼續降低營運設施的範圍 1 和範圍 2。
And the lifecycle carbon intensity of our cells, minus 19% to 20% depending of course on the production. But we are on the way to reach the minus 25% we want to have by 2030, continuing to deploy the strategy and growing the integrated power business.
我們電池的生命週期碳排放強度降低了 19% 到 20%,當然具體降低幅度取決於生產情況。但我們正在朝著 2030 年實現 -25% 的目標邁進,我們將繼續推行該策略並發展綜合電力業務。
On the upper parameter for growing free cash, I will come back on it because it's important. I read your comments this morning. Some of you were surprised by more than $26 billion. I think I will explain to you why we've come from $27.8 billion in '25 at $69 per barrel and $12 per million BTU down to $26 billion.
關於自由現金流成長的上限參數,我稍後會再詳細討論,因為它很重要。我今天早上讀了你的評論。有些人對超過 260 億美元的數字感到驚訝。我想我會向你們解釋為什麼我們從 2025 年每桶 69 美元、每百萬英熱單位 12 美元的 278 億美元下降到 260 億美元。
If you take the environment at $60 and $10 dollars, you would find more, something like $25. There are some reasons behind why we think we will reach more than $26 billion. In fact, it's linked to the effectiveness of this growth of oil and gas production.
如果把環境價值定為 60 美元和 10 美元,你會發現價值更高,大約是 25 美元。我們認為我們將達到超過 260 億美元的目標,背後有一些原因。事實上,這與石油和天然氣生產成長的有效性息息相關。
In two years, and I will come back on it, we will have in fact compensated $10 per barrel of oil price because of the growth, but also because this growth is accretive in terms of cash flow per barrel compared to where it was two years ago.
兩年後(我稍後會再談到這一點),由於增長,我們實際上已經彌補了每桶油價上漲 10 美元,而且與兩年前相比,這種增長還增加了每桶油的現金流。
And last but not least, an important target for all of us in the discussion on the board, we want to maintain the 15% gearing which will lead to the management of the cash flow of the company. And I know we say less than 20%. I saw the reaction.
最後,也是董事會討論中我們所有人的一個重要目標,我們希望保持 15% 的槓桿率,這將有助於公司現金流的管理。我知道我們說不到 20%。我看到了大家的反應。
We listened to all our investors in 2025. We have a model which is to maintain this 15%, and we have ways to achieve it. I will come back on it. I might have some volatility during the year because of the seasonality working capital, but please no panic. We'll end at 15%. We deliver what we say, trust us. We've demonstrated that year after year.
2025年,我們聽取了所有投資者的意見。我們有一個維持這 15% 比例的模型,而且我們有辦法實現這個目標。我會再回覆這件事。由於季節性營運資金的影響,我一年中的業績可能會有一些波動,但請不要驚慌。我們將止步於 15%。我們言出必行,請相信我們。我們已經年復一年地證明了這一點。
A word on the cash savings program which in fact is contributing to the free cash of the company directly. We said $7.5 billion in September. We increased it to $12.5 billion because as you know, the guidance we gave you in September around $16 billion of CapEx has been diminished to $15 billion like we see for '26 because in the meantime, we have announced the EPH deal which is in shares.
關於現金節約計劃,需要說明的是,該計劃實際上直接為該公司增加了自由現金流。我們在9月預測是75億美元。我們將其增加到 125 億美元,因為如您所知,我們在 9 月給出的 160 億美元左右的資本支出指引已經減少到 150 億美元,就像我們預計 2026 年的情況一樣,因為與此同時,我們宣布了 EPH 的股票交易。
But at the end of the day, it's an effort of investment, so we will save that cash. Issuing the shares, it's in fact an issuance of sort of capital increase we are doing, so we don't want to double count it.
但歸根結底,這是一項投資,所以我們會把這筆錢存起來。發行這些股份,其實是我們進行的一次增資,所以我們不想重複計算。
We are also working on the OpEx part. So for 2026, because I know that in September we gave you objectives without some color in it. This is a program, we have $500 million savings. Part of it coming from integrated power, because the fact that we found out allow us to rationalize part of the assets we are organized and the way we don't organize. So we are $200 million fixed cost will be saved on that part.
我們也在研究營運支出部分。所以對於 2026 年,因為我知道我們在 9 月給你們提出了一些目標,但這些目標還不夠具體。這是一個可以節省 5 億美元的項目。部分原因在於權力整合,因為我們發現的事實使我們能夠合理化我們組織方式和不組織方式中的部分資產。因此,我們將在該部分節省 2 億美元的固定成本。
And also both on the upstream and downstream, many initiatives on marketing and services, reorganization central services, headquarters re-streamlining. So reviewing the organization, as we were when the price was down in 2016, 2017.
此外,在上游和下游方面,也推出了許多行銷和服務方面的舉措,對中央服務進行了重組,對總部進行了精簡。因此,我們像 2016 年、2017 年股價下跌時一樣,對組織進行了審查。
In the meantime, the price went up, so we have trend, teams have a little increase, so we streamline that. And initiatives all across the board. So that's for 2026. We have also worked to launch new initiatives in order to continue to feed this cash-saving program for future years. Some of them are mentioned there.
同時,價格上漲了,所以我們看到了趨勢,各團隊的價格略有上漲,所以我們對此進行了調整。以及各方面的舉措。以上是2026年的情況。我們也努力推出新的舉措,以便在未來幾年繼續推動這項節約現金的計畫。其中一些在那裡被提及。
One has been mentioned, so we want the growth in integrated power and digital AI to be supported by this global competence center in India, which of course will offer competitive cost, but primarily it's because it will give us access to talent on, and to accelerate the growth. And we need to have, I'd say, more people to deliver efficiently these various programs. So that's one initiative.
前面已經提到過一點,所以我們希望印度的這個全球能力中心能夠支援整合電力和數位人工智慧的發展。當然,這個中心會提供具有競爭力的成本,但主要原因是它將使我們能夠獲得人才,並加速發展。我認為,我們需要更多的人手來有效率地進行這些不同的專案。這是其中一項舉措。
Second one is that we are reviewing all, which is a non-proximity dependent services inside the company and move that, in low-cost country, I would say. We had a number of, service, either in IT, in engineering, in different areas, where we discover -- when we're reviewing it, you need to review permanently what you do. Some of them which are not dependent on proximity to our own people, are still delivered by high-cost, service, contractors, and we could move them. We will move them. We think there is more than $100 million of saving, probably more than that. We will apply the same philosophy to all these segments.
第二點是,我們正在審查公司內部所有與地理位置無關的服務,並將其轉移到低成本國家。我們在 IT、工程等各個領域都遇到過很多服務問題,在審查過程中我們發現,你需要不斷審查你所做的事情。有些服務並不依賴與我們自己人民的距離,但仍然由高成本的服務承包商提供,我們可以將它們轉移出去。我們會把它們搬走。我們認為可以節省超過1億美元,可能還不只。我們將把同樣的理念應用於所有這些領域。
Another one, which is we actually have established what we call the procurement factories in Romania, which is in fact able to procure on some framework contracts. We have this negotiated with plenty of suppliers, and this one has been tested. Now we'll make it mandatory for all the LBUs. We'll move, when I say all of them, I know it's more, we have to be pragmatic. 20 of them by 2027, and then more with than it. There is quite a good potential to centralize the sourcing of equipment and benefiting from the size of the company. So for we at least 10% of the $2 billion, and there is more to come behind.
還有一點,我們實際上已經在羅馬尼亞建立了所謂的採購工廠,這些工廠實際上能夠根據一些框架合約進行採購。我們已經與多家供應商協商過,而且這款產品也經過了測試。現在我們將強制所有 LBU 執行此操作。我們會推進的,我說全部的時候,我知道實際數字會更高,我們必須務實一些。到2027年完成其中20個,然後還會增加更多。公司有相當大的潛力可以集中採購設備,並充分利用公司規模優勢。因此,我們至少獲得了20億美元的10%,而且後續還會有更多。
So this is a third initiative, and the last one is to see how we could mutualize some support services across some LBUs, regionally, for example, in Africa or even in France, where we continue to have in different refineries. All support services are in each site, and there is probably there some gains. There are not probably, there will be some gains,
所以這是第三項舉措,也是最後一項舉措,旨在探討我們如何在區域內,例如在非洲,甚至在法國(我們仍在不同的煉油廠開展業務)之間共享一些支援服務。每個站點都提供所有支援服務,這可能會帶來一些好處。可能不會,但會有一些收益。
So once again, taking the opportunity of to review the way we work, to continue to be more efficient and resilient. CapEx for '26, $15 billion, as announced, $15 billion. Where we split is there. On integrated power low carbon, in cash, it's $3 billion. If you add, you add 1/5, I would say one year of EPH shares, the effort is equivalent to [$4 billion], but $3 billion.
因此,我們再次藉此機會審視我們的工作方式,以持續提高效率和韌性。2026 年資本支出為 150 億美元,與先前宣布的一致。我們的分歧點就在這裡。就低碳綜合電力而言,現金金額為 30 億美元。如果加上 1/5,我認為一年的 EPH 股份,這項工作相當於 [40 億美元],但實際上是 30 億美元。
On the other areas, I think it's quite similar to 2025. Let me be clear, there is no reduction of the growth, ambition. All the projects which have been launched will be delivered within the budget. It's a question to be, efficient on the way work. We revised it from $17 billion to $16 billion September, now $16 billion to $15 billion because of EPH. We are, in this figure, we are planning to divest $1 billion more than what we will acquire, so just to be clear. And, we have a flexibility, which are identified to go down to [$14 billion], in particular, I would say, on the acquisition part. If we were willing to if we were facing a lower than $50 per barrel environment. So that's the program for, CapEx.
在其他方面,我認為與 2025 年的情況非常相似。我要明確一點,成長和雄心壯志絲毫沒有減弱。所有已啟動的項目都將在預算範圍內完成。這是一個需要思考的問題,即如何有效率地完成工作。我們9月將預算從170億美元調整為160億美元,現在由於EPH,預算又從160億美元調整為150億美元。為了明確起見,我們計劃剝離的資產比我們將收購的資產多 10 億美元。而且,我們有彈性,可以下調至 140 億美元,尤其是在收購方面。如果我們願意的話,前提是油價低於每桶 50 美元。這就是資本支出計畫。
Growth, I mentioned, 3% for oil and gas. It will come from not only some of the growth comes from the startups of 2025, reaching their plateau of production, like Anchor, which is not yet at plateau or Mero 4. So part of this is coming from the startups of last year. New startups in this year, we have identified five projects, or six even.
正如我之前提到的,石油和天然氣行業成長了3%。它不僅來自 2025 年達到生產瓶頸的新創公司,也來自尚未達到瓶頸的 Anchor 或 Mero 4。這其中一部分要歸功於去年的新創公司。今年我們已經確定了五到六個新的創業項目。
One is Lapa Southwest in Brazil, Morocco, and Libya. They are not very big ones. Ratawi is more important. Ratawi phase one will increase the production from Ratawi field in Iraq to another 20,000 barrels per day. Then we have Tin Fouye Tabankort upgrade of production in Algeria, around 55,000 barrels per day. North Field East in Qatar, we plan it for Q3, and Uganda, we are planning it for Q3, now it's Q4. I will start the first train, before year-end 2026.
其中之一是位於巴西、摩洛哥和利比亞的拉帕西南部。它們個頭不大。拉塔維更重要。拉塔維第一期工程將使伊拉克拉塔維油田的日產量增加 2 萬桶。接著是阿爾及利亞 Tin Fouye Tabankort 油田的升級改造,每日產量約 55,000 桶。卡達的北菲爾德東部項目,我們計劃在第三季啟動;烏幹達的項目,我們原本計劃在第三季啟動,現在已經是第四季了。我將在 2026 年底前開通第一列火車。
This 3%, and this is probably the most important slide, in fact, will be translated in terms of cash flow by a growth of 7%. So again, as Jean-Pierre told you, in '25, the 4% growth of production was translated in 10% growth of cash flow because of this, higher CFFO per barrel of the new projects. In 2026, the 3% will be translated in 7%, according to our planning. Maybe a little more, we'll see.
事實上,這 3% 的成長(這可能是最重要的成長點)將轉化為現金流成長 7%。所以,正如讓-皮埃爾告訴你的那樣,2025 年,由於新項目的每桶 CFFO 更高,4% 的產量增長轉化為 10% 的現金流增長。根據我們的計劃,到 2026 年,3% 將轉化為 7%。或許還會再多一點,我們拭目以待。
But this, of course, will help us, and in fact, when you make the math at the end of this combination, we will have a cash flow from operation from upstream at $60 per barrel in '26, which will be equivalent to what we would have done in '24 at $70 per barrel. So we have offset $10 per barrel, thanks to this growth and this accretive growth. So I think this is a strong message of this presentation. Maybe this was a figure that you did not have in mind. We were not so clear. I had the question September, and now in the meantime, we have managed to put all that together.
當然,這對我們會有幫助。事實上,當你計算完這些合併後的最終結果時,我們將在 2026 年獲得來自上游的每桶 60 美元的營運現金流,這相當於我們在 2024 年每桶 70 美元時所取得的成就。因此,由於這種增長和這種累積性增長,我們已經抵消了每桶 10 美元的成本。所以我認為這是本次演講傳達的重要訊息。也許這是你意料之外的數字。我們當時表達得不夠清楚。我九月提出了這個問題,現在我們已經設法把所有資訊都整理出來了。
We don't stop, we never stop exploring. I know that it's a new music, exploring for on offsite. Since the last 10 years, we spent $1 billion per year of exploration appraisal. We have done two big, nice discoveries in the last 10 years, in particular, Grand Mangoustan and Venus, on which we will work to sanction the project, as Arnaud explained you, in '26. We have been quite active to have access to new licenses in '25, the US, Algeria, Liberia, Congo, Nigeria, Namibia, Malaysia, Indonesia.
我們永不停歇,我們永不停歇地探索。我知道這是一種新的音樂,正在場外探索。過去十年,我們每年花費 10 億美元進行勘探評估。在過去的 10 年裡,我們取得了兩項重大而令人欣喜的發現,特別是大芒古斯坦和金星,我們將努力爭取在 2026 年批准該項目,正如 Arnaud 向您解釋的那樣。我們一直非常積極地爭取在 2025 年獲得美國、阿爾及利亞、賴比瑞亞、剛果、奈及利亞、納米比亞、馬來西亞和印尼的新許可證。
We have a program of interesting wells, I would say, for 2026, in particular, Nigeria, Congo, Namibia, but also in Malaysia. And then, some, I would say, more frontier wells like in PNG, Indonesia, which will be drilled this year. So the efforts continue, and then Nicolas Terraz has taken the lead of all these teams in order to, to maintain, I hope, the success rate of the company in exploration.
我認為,我們有一個很有趣的油井計劃,尤其是在 2026 年,主要集中在尼日利亞、剛果、納米比亞,以及馬來西亞。然後,我認為還有一些更具前沿性的油井,例如在巴布亞新幾內亞和印尼的油井,這些油井將在今年鑽探。因此,各項努力仍在繼續,尼古拉斯·特拉茲領導了所有這些團隊,以期保持公司在勘探領域的成功率。
On integrated LNG, we will face a year where on one side, we have a growth of production of LNG, 6%. We have two projects starting up, by the way, in 2026. One is North Field East in Qatar, the other one is the famous Energia Costa Azul in Baja California. We are waiting for him. He's a little late, but he's planned for Q3 as well, with quite a good offtake, by the way, of both. Those will contribute to the growth of the sales of, Stephane's team.
在一體化液化天然氣方面,我們將面臨這樣的一年:一方面,液化天然氣產量增加了 6%。順便一提,我們有兩個計畫將於 2026 年啟動。一個是卡達的北田東項目,另一個是下加利福尼亞州著名的藍色海岸能源項目。我們在等他。他稍微晚了一點,但他也計劃參加第三季的比賽,而且順便說一句,兩場比賽的開局都相當不錯。這些都將有助於史蒂芬團隊的銷售成長。
So on one side, we have this growth, on the other side, we have lower the assumption on the gas price, TTF down from 12 to 10. So of course, this has an impact, I would say, on the and also the LNG price. If we were at $60 per barrel and a TTF of 10, the average LNG price of our sales would be $8. We have announced $8.5 for Q1, so that's the math, which gave us, compared to $9 in 2025.
一方面,我們有這種成長;另一方面,我們降低了對天然氣價格的預期,TTF 從 12 降至 10。所以,我認為這當然會對天然氣價格產生影響。如果油價為每桶 60 美元,TTF 為 10,則我們銷售的液化天然氣平均價格為每桶 8 美元。我們已經宣布第一季為 8.5 美元,所以這就是計算結果,與 2025 年的 9 美元相比。
So when you make this 10%, 12% decrease on the sales and on the other side, 6% increase of the growth, we are planning to have a cash flow from operation from integrated LNG around $4.5 billion. This year was [$4.6 billion, $4.7 billion], I think, so more or less stable, stability, but the growth being compensated by a lower environment.
因此,當銷售額下降 10% 至 12%,而成長率提高 6% 時,我們計劃從一體化液化天然氣業務中獲得約 45 億美元的營運現金流。我認為今年是 46 億美元到 47 億美元,所以總體上比較穩定,但成長被較低的環境所抵消。
On integrated power, of course, the year, but I will not come back, will be dominated by the closing of this deal with EPH, which will provide us, its figures are to be remembered. On a yearly basis, 15 terawatt per year of net power production and $750 million per year of available cash flow. So it's Of course, these figures have to be integrated, and it's a major step for us, with potentially capacity to grow beyond, because there is a pipeline coming with the 14 gigawatt [gas-fired] power plant fleet.
當然,就併網發電而言,今年的重點將是與EPH達成協議,這將為我們提供…,其數據值得我們銘記。每年淨發電量為 15 太瓦,每年可用現金流為 7.5 億美元。當然,這些數字必須整合起來,這對我們來說是一個重大的進步,而且還有進一步發展的空間,因為隨著14吉瓦(燃氣)發電廠的投產,未來還有很大的成長空間。
It will be translated, so for 2026, production above 60 terawatts per hour. The cash flow is expected to be above $3 billion. As we plan to have net CapEx $2.5 billion to $3 billion, normally 2026 should be, for the first time, contributive to the dividend, free cash positive with this activity. I say normally, because we have an uncertainty on the date of the closing. We are not completely in, in line, but we are for sure, if it's not '26, it could be '26, but '27 for sure, this business will be free cash positive. And I think it's a turning point, obviously, in the way you could valorize the business inside, inside the company. It will contribute to the dividend.
將會翻譯成:2026 年,發電量將超過每小時 60 太瓦。預計現金流將超過30億美元。由於我們計劃淨資本支出為 25 億至 30 億美元,通常情況下,2026 年應該會首次對股息做出貢獻,而這項活動將帶來正的自由現金流。我說“通常情況下”,是因為交割日期存在不確定性。我們還沒有完全確定,但我們確信,如果不是 2026 年,那也可能是 2026 年,但 2027 年肯定,這家公司將實現自由現金流為正。我認為這顯然是一個轉捩點,它改變了公司內部對業務的價值評估方式。這將有助於分紅。
Refining and chemicals. I reported to you in September that we had three bad pupils, which were Port Arthur, Donges, and Normandy. Now, this one, the good news is that the bad pupils are in better shape, if I say. Port Arthur, the problems have been identified on the reformers team. There was a bit large turnaround, which was delivered on time, and now Port Arthur is back on track with positive performance.
煉油和化工。我在九月向您報告說,我們有三個不合格的學生,分別是亞瑟港、東日和諾曼第。現在,好消息是,那些學習成績不好的學生情況有所好轉,如果我這麼說的話。阿瑟港,改革團隊已經發現了問題所在。雖然週轉時間有點長,但按時完成了,現在亞瑟港已經重回正軌,業績表現良好。
The Donges refinery has suffered during several years. We will start up this famous Horizon project, which is an investment in order to be able to produce gasoline on spec and not on the export market. So that's February, March, that's coming out. So again, we reach a much better utilization rate in November. We can consider that Donges will be back on normal availability, and the cracker problems in Normandy has always, always been repaired. And so again, this platform in Normandy is back to, I would say, a good, good availability.
東格斯煉油廠多年來一直經營慘淡。我們將啟動著名的地平線項目,這是一項投資,目的是為了能夠生產符合自身需求而非出口市場的汽油。所以,二月、三月即將發行。因此,11 月我們的利用率再次大幅提高。我們可以認為 Donges 將恢復正常供應,而諾曼第的裂解裝置問題也一直都得到了修復。所以,諾曼第的這個平台又恢復了良好的可用性。
By the way, you've seen in the fourth quarter results that refining and chemicals have really being able to capture a very good margin, $11 per barrel. So the good news is that we have captured it, which means that, yes, the plants are now available, and that's, I think a good news. The global program that Vincent and his teams are implementing, which is called Boost 27, is to increase the availability by 2 points, and we'll follow that, this KPI, very carefully along the year, and we'll report to you.
順便說一下,從第四季的業績來看,煉油和化學工業確實獲得了非常好的利潤,每桶11美元。所以好消息是我們已經捕獲了它,這意味著,是的,這些植物現在可以獲得了,我認為這是個好消息。Vincent 和他的團隊正在實施的全球計劃名為 Boost 27,旨在將可用性提高 2 個百分點,我們將全年密切關注這一關鍵績效指標,並向您報告。
Unfortunately, now margins are lower back, but very clearly this is the integration when price of oil is going up at $72. We are at the margin today, around 4 to 5, so we have a less environment. But again, it's part of the, we, we gain on one side, we have less on the other side. This is why we think it's good to be integrated.
可惜的是,現在利潤率又下降了,但很明顯,這是油價上漲到 72 美元時的整合。我們今天處於邊緣狀態,大約在 4 到 5 之間,所以我們的環境比較小。但話說回來,這也是一種循環,我們一方面有所收穫,另一方面就會有所減少。這就是我們認為融入社會是件好事的原因。
Marketing and services is very, growing steadily, $100 million of cash flow per year, so $2.3 billion in '24, $2.4 billion in '25. We plan $2.5 billion in 2026. Despite the fact, I remind you, that we have streamlined some of the networks in Europe and, in Africa, we have a, a special focus there on lubricants. We have reorganized the lubricants business unit in a sort of, I would say, independent business unit company. There is no, don't think there is any plan to divest it.
行銷和服務業務發展非常迅速,每年現金流達 1 億美元,因此 2024 年將達到 23 億美元,2025 年將達到 24 億美元。我們計劃在2026年投入25億美元。儘管如此,我還是要提醒各位,我們已經精簡了歐洲的一些網絡,並且在非洲,我們特別關注潤滑油。我們已經將潤滑油業務部門重組為獨立的業務部門公司。目前沒有,也不要認為有任何剝離該資產的計劃。
We love lubricants. It's very cash. It's a super cash cow, very little capital employed, good business, stable market share, and don't try to rush to gain market share, better to manage your margins and keep your good margins. So we have good, and I think the focus on these units basis is giving us ideas on how to develop. We are very focused today on the auto market, to have more emphasis on the industry markets. That's the idea behind this new organization. On the network, the focus will be down to really move forward on developing the non-fuel revenues, which is a source of potential cash.
我們喜歡潤滑劑。非常划算。這是一個超級搖錢樹,投入資本很少,生意好,市場份額穩定,不要急於搶佔市場份額,最好是管理好利潤率,保持良好的利潤率。所以我們現在情況不錯,我認為以這些單位為基礎的重點發展正在提供我們發展想法。我們目前非常關注汽車市場,並更加重視產業市場。這就是這個新組織的理念。在網路方面,重點將放在真正推動非燃料收入的發展上,這是一個潛在的現金來源。
So the global picture for 2026, to conclude, is that, so we will generate, as I said, that $60, $10 per barrel, $10 per million BTU, refining margin at $5. Above $26 billion, we will invest $15 billion, so we have a free cash of $11 billion. Dividend, more or less $8, $0.85, depending on the exchange rate, $3 billion of buyback. You see the equation there.
綜上所述,2026 年的全球情勢是,正如我所說,我們將實現每桶 60 美元、每百萬 BTU 10 美元的煉油利潤,煉油利潤為 5 美元。在超過 260 億美元的基礎上,我們將投資 150 億美元,因此我們有 110 億美元的自由現金流。股息約為 8 美元或 0.85 美元(取決於匯率),30 億美元的股票回購。你看,那裡有個等式。
The news that I what we want to illustrate is that between '25 and '26, if you rebase '25 at the same environment price, we have an additional free cash of $4 billion, $2 billion coming from the CapEx, and the other $2 billion are coming, a little more than $1 billion from the upstream, the growth accretiveness, $1.1 billion. Around $500 million from integrated power, then marketing and services for $100, and then refining and chemicals, which is planning at the same environment because of better viability to have an additional $300 million to $400 million. So that's why we'll have, again, this resilience, and we'll be able to have the same free cash at $60 in '26, but we add at '25 at $69 per barrel. That's what I said. Company is more resilient and able to distribute dividends.
我們想說明的是,在 2025 年到 2026 年之間(如果以相同的環境價格重新計算 2025 年的基準),我們將有額外的 40 億美元自由現金流,其中 20 億美元來自資本支出,另外 20 億美元來自上游增長,略多於 10 億美元,即 11 億美元。綜合電力業務收入約 5 億美元,行銷和服務業務收入約 1 億美元,煉油和化學業務在同樣的環境下,由於可行性更高,預計可額外獲得 3 億至 4 億美元的收入。所以這就是為什麼我們將再次擁有這種韌性,並且能夠在 2026 年以每桶 60 美元的價格獲得相同的自由現金流,但我們在 2025 年以每桶 69 美元的價格增加。我就是這麼說的。公司更具韌性,也更有能力派發股息。
So the dividends coming, on the dividends, so Board's decision has decided yesterday to come back to what was the traditional way, by the way, in TotalEnergies. And to be clear, until '22, where we were the last, I mean, the final dividend, because it's not a quarterly dividend. For in French way, it's a final dividend. We have intermediary, intermediate dividends in the French system, but we distribute quarterly. A final one is equal to the three previous ones. We have departed from this tradition last few years because we had a clear visibility on high oil price, so we were confident.
所以,關於股利發放,董事會昨天決定恢復TotalEnergies的傳統方式。需要說明的是,直到 2022 年,我們才發放了最後一筆股息,我的意思是,是最終股息,因為這不是季度股息。按照法國人的說法,這是最終的股利。法國的股息制度中有中間股息,但我們是按季度派發股息的。最後一個結果與前三個結果相同。過去幾年,我們打破了這個傳統,因為我們清楚地看到了高油價的前景,所以我們充滿信心。
The Board prefers to be a little more cautious, but there is no signal on it. It gives, by the way, a growth of the dividend of 5.6% per year in euro, 13% in dollar. When I compare that to my own peers, we are good position in terms of growing the dividend. We will, of course, announce what will be the growth of the quarterly dividend by end of April. Board decided to have a better view of one quarter, see the market. But no message there, but there will be, the idea is not to keep it at the same level. It's just a question to come back to the traditional manner to manage this dividend. So that's the point, and I think the 5% there is probably a good guidance.
董事會傾向於採取更謹慎的態度,但目前還沒有任何跡象表明這一點。順便一提,以歐元計算,其股息年增率為 5.6%;以美元計算,其股息年增率為 13%。與同業相比,我們在提高股息方面處於有利地位。當然,我們會在四月底之前公佈季度股息的成長。董事會決定更了解一個季度的情況,看看市場。但目前還沒有明確的訊息,不過以後會有的,目的是不要讓它保持在同一水平上。這只是回歸傳統分紅管理方式的問題。所以這就是重點,我認為 5% 這個數字可能是個很好的參考值。
On the buyback, you, we have announced you, $3 billion to $6 billion, again, at between $60 to $70 per barrel. In September, we reset that buyback guidance. We are adding, because I had a lot of questions during my roadshow, that at $50 per barrel, there will be no buyback, so the answer is quite easy. I don't try to make a in between. Don't ask me, there is no mathematical formula.
關於回購計劃,我們已經宣布,金額為 30 億至 60 億美元,價格為每桶 60 至 70 美元。9月份,我們調整了回購預期。因為我在巡迴演講期間收到了很多問題,所以我們補充說明一下,如果油價達到每桶 50 美元,就不會有回購計劃,所以答案很簡單。我不試圖製造中間地帶。別問我,沒有數學公式可以解答。
Today, at this stage, the Board has taken the same attitude, and we want to be able to buyback $3 to $6. We don't know where we land the price of oil, crude oil, so we took a -- I would say, a flexible approach by starting a first quarter at the bottom of the guidance. Then if we see that the price remain around above $70, we'll have opportunity to, I would say, increase it. But I think it's better to increase than to decrease. my view on with the markets, so good news are better than bad news. So we'll keep in the guidance. We took the low range because, again, we don't have a full visibility on it.
今天,在現階段,董事會採取了同樣的態度,我們希望能夠以 3 至 6 美元的價格回購股票。我們不知道原油價格會跌到什麼程度,所以我們採取了一種——我認為是靈活的方式,將第一季的業績預期設定在最低水平。如果價格保持在 70 美元以上,那麼我們就有機會提高價格。但我認為上漲總比下跌好。就市場而言,我的看法是,好消息比壞消息好。所以我們會繼續遵循這些指導方針。我們選擇了低距離,因為我們仍然無法完全看清目標。
I would also say that the second message is important, is the one on priority to gearing. We have listened to investors loud and clear. So this 15% has been clearly is an anchor point. And you can see on the math, but it's much with more or less at $60, it match more or less with $3 billion of buybacks. But this will be, I would say, the idea that we don't increase the net debt to finance a buyback will be part of the equation of the way we will allocate the cash flow in 2026 coming forward. So that's, I would say again, we have the CFFO is resilient, we have a clear investment, and we will execute the $15 billion.
我還要補充一點,第二個資訊也很重要,它是齒輪比的優先事項。我們已經充分聽取了投資者的意見。所以這15%顯然是個錨點。從數學計算中可以看出,股價在 60 美元左右,與 30 億美元的股票回購計畫大致相當。但我認為,不增加淨債務來為股票回購融資的想法,將成為我們2026年及以後分配現金流的考量因素之一。所以,我再次強調,我們的 CFFO 具有韌性,我們有明確的投資方向,我們將執行 150 億美元的投資計畫。
The dividend is now, will be, then we have a little uncertainty, of course, on the exchange rate. Even if my view is that it will continue dollar to weaken, but we'll see. It has an impact on us. And again, as I said, keep in mind, the gearing sustainability, which could go up to 3%, $3 billion of working capital. We anticipate $2 billion to $3 billion for the first quarter. That represent easily 2% to 3% or 2.5%, 3% of gearing. So again, I say no panic.
目前的股利是,將來也會是,當然,匯率方面存在一些不確定性。即使我個人認為美元會繼續走弱,但我們拭目以待。它對我們產生影響。還有一點,正如我所說,請記住槓桿可持續性,最高可達 3%,需要 30 億美元的營運資金。我們預計第一季營收將達到20億至30億美元。這很容易就佔到齒輪比的 2% 到 3%,也就是 2.5% 到 3%。所以我再次強調,不要慌張。
So to finish this presentation, this slide, we just updated it. The -- I think we offer and we continue to offer a clear and consistent strategy, which is, yes, differentiated from our peers, but differentiated in both ways.
為了結束本次演示,我們剛剛更新了這張投影片。我認為我們提供並將繼續提供清晰一致的策略,是的,這與我們的同行有所不同,而這種不同體現在兩個方面。
On the oil and gas, we deliver a growth, an accretive growth. We keep, and I think it's important, the medium and long-term view. Again, we have renewed again by more than 100% of proven reserves. I remind you the last three years, 140%, 150%, 120%. So the capacity to continue to identify new resources, to sanction projects is there, and I'm very confident with the pipeline we have in front of us, of FIDs to be taken in 2026 and 2027, that we'll maintain this track record. I think this is probably one of the best foundations for the investors within TotalEnergies.
在石油和天然氣領域,我們實現了成長,並實現了增值成長。我們始終保持中長期視角,我認為這很重要。我們再次實現了超過已探明儲量100%的更新。我提醒你們過去三年,分別是 140%、150%、120%。因此,我們有能力繼續發現新的資源,批准項目,我對我們面前的項目儲備非常有信心,這些項目將在 2026 年和 2027 年做出最終投資決定,我相信我們將保持這一良好記錄。我認為這可能是TotalEnergies投資者最好的基礎之一。
And the other differentiation is about this integrated power pillar, which is, again, benefiting from a good demand for electricity, even in our Western countries, and also benefiting from this growth, and it will contribute to, to dividends, if not 2026, 2027, for sure.
另一個區別在於這個綜合電力支柱,它再次受益於良好的電力需求,即使在我們的西方國家也是如此,並且也受益於這種增長,即使到 2026 年或 2027 年,它肯定會帶來紅利。
Thank you for your attention, and we are ready to take your questions.
謝謝大家的關注,我們已準備好回答大家的問題。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
So let's move to the Q&A. So raise the hand if you want to ask questions. Biraj?
接下來進入問答環節。所以,想提問的請舉手。比拉傑?
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Hi, it's Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. Thank you for the comprehensive presentation. First one was just on Namibia, as you visited there. We know for Venus, you were looking for an extension to the concession. Could you just talk about Mopane and whether the fiscal conditions today are sufficient for you to take an FID, and whether you're looking for any improvement there? Any comments that would be appreciated.
大家好,我是 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。感謝您詳盡的報告。第一篇是關於納米比亞的,因為你去過那裡。我們知道,對於維納斯公司而言,您一直在尋求延長特許經營權。您能否談談莫帕內的情況,以及目前的財政狀況是否足以讓您做出最終投資決定,以及您是否希望那裡的情況有所改善?歡迎提出任何意見。
And then the second question is just on your LNG portfolio, and specifically Yamal. You were quoted today around sanctions and the lack of ability to divert the cargos. In the past, I think you said that you could divert some and to Asia and keep some. So what's your latest understanding of how those sanctions will be enforced? Thanks.
第二個問題是關於您的液化天然氣投資組合,特別是亞馬爾計畫。今天有人就制裁和無法轉移貨物的問題引用了你的言論。我記得你以前說過,你可以把一部分資金轉移到亞洲,一部分資金留在那裡。那麼,你對這些制裁措施將如何執行的最新理解是什麼?謝謝。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Okay. Namibia, first, again, the good news is that because of we made this transaction with Galp, the authorities know us, perceive us as, I would say, unavoidable. So we are there, and we will be the one, the company which will help them to establish the oil and gas industry. So the dialogue, even on Venus, was much more, I would say, engaging. We knew it's a new administration. It's a new country to oil and gas, so we had to learn, but they see us as the engine of capacity to deliver it. And I would say, we explained to them that we have an opportunity because now we have received the tenders, and honestly, we are within the ballpark for the CapEx we were anticipating, which is good news.
好的。首先是納米比亞,好消息是,由於我們與 Galp 進行了這筆交易,當局認識了我們,並認為我們是不可避免的。所以我們已經到位,我們將成為幫助他們建立石油和天然氣產業的公司。所以,即使是關於金星的對話,也更加引人入勝。我們知道這是新政府。對於石油和天然氣產業來說,這是一個新興國家,所以我們必須學習,但他們把我們視為輸送石油和天然氣的產能引擎。我想說,我們已經向他們解釋說,我們現在有機會,因為我們收到了投標書,而且說實話,我們的資本支出基本上符合預期,這是個好消息。
Because there is also more appetite from contractors to, to transact with TotalEnergies, they see us again. So this, this deal has generated a lot of, I would say, a good virtuous circle for us. So maybe I'm optimistic, but we have In front of us as well, the, the Namibian authorities organize themselves now in order to be able to engage with our team, so we have working, working team. So the idea that we could sanction by middle of the year, we'll see if we can deliver, but clearly it is on the program, blessed by the president, and we'll see if we, we can reach the point where we can sanction that.
因為承包商們也更願意與 TotalEnergies 進行交易,所以他們再次見到了我們。所以,我認為這筆交易為我們創造了一個良性循環。所以也許我比較樂觀,但我們面前還有納米比亞當局正在組織起來,以便能夠與我們的團隊合作,所以我們有一個正在工作的團隊。所以,我們能否在年中之前批准這項計劃,我們拭目以待,但顯然它已經在計劃之中,得到了總統的批准,我們將看看我們能否達到批准的地步。
On Mopane, it's very different. Mopane has a permeability, which is much easier. Again, we are facing a development which is, I would say, more or less a sort of grand mogul development. So, and again, it works with the CapEx we have in mind and the fiscal, it works without having to negotiate plenty of elements. The point on Mopane is more that we know it's big. We don't know if it's very big or big?
在莫帕內島上,情況則截然不同。莫帕內具有良好的滲透性,這更容易實現。再一次,我們面臨的發展,我認為或多或少是一種巨頭式的發展。所以,再次強調,它符合我們所設想的資本支出和財政預算,而且無需就許多要素進行談判。關於莫帕內,重點在於我們知道它很大。我們不知道它到底是很大還是非常大?
So the idea of the appraisal program is it 700, 800 million barrels, or is it 1.1, 1.2? So we need to. Because, in fact, the last wells they drilled going on the southwest discovered clearly an extension. So we need to see up to which point is going this extension, because this could influence the way we develop the field. So we don't want to make. But the idea of the free wells, which have been completely, by the way, completely in line with Galp on this program. So again, the idea is that we'll be able to win it, and if we do that, we should be able to sanction that by 2028 and then moving forward.
所以評估方案的構想是 7 億、8 億桶,還是 110 萬、120 萬桶?所以我們需要這樣做。事實上,他們在西南方向鑽探的最後一批井清楚地發現了一個延伸區。所以我們需要看看這個擴展計劃會進行到什麼程度,因為這可能會影響我們對該領域的開發方式。所以我們不想製造。但自由水井的想法,順便說一句,與 Galp 在這個計劃上的立場完全一致。所以,我們的想法是,我們能夠贏得比賽,如果我們做到了,我們應該能夠在 2028 年及以後對其進行製裁。
So the idea is to have one project and the other one moving behind, and there are obviously synergies. And for TotalEnergies, by the way, it will also help to discuss all this Venus discussion because we, we have the perspective not only to have Venus, which was a little constrained, but to have more than that. So in terms of the way we will approach this fiscal discussion, it helps everybody. And I think we have, we have engaged in a smart and good way. So 2026, for sure, for us, focus on Namibia will be important. And again, we have the opportunity to deploy our competence there in a, in a very efficient way.
所以,我們的想法是先做一個項目,另一個項目跟在後面推進,這樣顯然會產生綜效。順便說一句,對於 TotalEnergies 來說,討論所有這些關於金星的話題也很有幫助,因為我們不僅要關注金星(它曾經有點受限),還要關注更多。所以,就我們處理這次財政討論的方式而言,這對每個人都有好處。我認為我們已經以一種明智且有效的方式參與其中。所以可以肯定的是,2026年對我們來說,重點關注納米比亞將非常重要。而且,我們再次有機會以非常有效率的方式在那裡發揮我們的能力。
Yamal. Yamal. First, '26 will be '26. So '26, there is no sanction. Short term, but no, we don't have short-term deals with them. We make only the long-term contract, so '26 will be as per of it. For '27, there are -- one thing which is clear, no more import of EU in the EU, so this contract will be diverted. In fact, today, legally, we have a question mark, because the way it's written, there is a question mark: Is it only import to EU, or is it import everywhere in the world? That means, is a European company like TotalEnergies forbidden to manage any Russian energy?
亞馬爾。亞馬爾。首先,26年就是26年。所以,26年,沒有製裁。短期內,但是不,我們沒有和他們簽訂短期協議。我們只簽訂長期合同,所以26年將按照合約執行。對 2027 年來說,有一件事很明確,歐盟將不再進口歐盟產品,因此這份合約將會被轉移。事實上,今天,從法律角度來看,我們面臨一個問號,因為按照目前的措辭,存在一個問號:它是否只能進口到歐盟,還是可以進口到世界各地?這意味著,像道達爾能源這樣的歐洲公司是否被禁止經營任何俄羅斯能源?
The intent was not this one, initially, what we understood from the text, but there is -- the way it's written, today we are obliged to have engaged with, I would say, the French Treasury and the Commission, and the EU Commission, to have a clarification. And so I cannot fully answer to your questions. Maybe we'll really have to just give up the marketing of any Russian energy, and we'll have to obey, obviously. It was not our understanding, but the way it's written, we could have that understanding. So we are willing to clarify that point. So at this stage, I cannot tell you more on this one.
最初的意圖並非如此,我們從文本中理解到的並非如此,但就其目前的表述方式而言,我們今天有義務與法國財政部、法國委員會以及歐盟委員會進行溝通,以獲得澄清。因此,我無法完全回答您的問題。或許我們真的不得不放棄銷售任何俄羅斯能源,而我們顯然也必須服從。我們當時並不這麼認為,但從字面上的寫法來看,我們有可能會得出這樣的結論。所以我們願意澄清這一點。所以目前我無法透露更多。
What will remain is that even if we cannot market, we can remain shareholder of Yamal, which is another issue for us. Because, Yamal, for us, is a source of two business, being a shareholder of the company itself, the plant, even if difficult to get some dividends, but it's an activity, and then the marketing part. The sanction only covers today the marketing part, so there is no force majeure, there is no, I mean, rules which would force us to exit from Yamal. So that's where we are for Yamal.
即使我們無法進行市場推廣,我們仍然可以繼續持有 Yamal 的股份,這對我們來說是另一個問題。因為,對我們來說,亞馬爾有兩個業務來源:一是作為公司本身的股東,二是工廠本身,即使很難獲得一些股息,但它是一項活動;三是行銷部分。目前的製裁僅涵蓋行銷部分,因此不存在不可抗力,也沒有任何規定會迫使我們退出亞馬爾地區。這就是亞馬爾半島目前的狀況。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Okay, Matt?
好的,馬特?
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Thanks. Thanks, everybody. Matt Lofting at JPM. Two questions, please. But first, you talked several times about the benefits of the higher margin barrels and that sort of bridging a part of the $10 per barrel, '26 versus '24. No barrels are born equal, so I wondered if you could just expand on that a bit in terms of the key sources, geologically, fiscally, size of assets, et cetera, when you think about the growth versus the base portfolio.
謝謝。謝謝大家。摩根大通的馬特·洛夫廷。請問兩個問題。但首先,你多次談到高利潤率的酒桶的好處,以及這如何彌補 2026 年款與 2024 年款之間每桶 10 美元的差距。沒有兩桶油是生來平等的,所以我想知道,當您考慮成長與基礎投資組合時,能否從關鍵來源(地質、財政、資產規模等)方面再詳細闡述一下。
And then second, I just wanted to ask you about M&A. I noticed during JP's comments, he talked or referenced that the US listed shares and that potentially being a sort of a source of supporting M&A in the US in the future is obviously a prudence that historically, the companies have often been pretty prudent on the view on valuations around. So any thoughts there would be appreciated?
其次,我想問你一些關於併購的問題。我注意到,JP在發言中提到或提及了美國上市股票,並認為這些股票未來可能會成為美國併購活動的一種支持來源,這顯然是一種謹慎的做法。從歷史上看,這些公司在估值方面往往相當謹慎。所以,大家有什麼想法嗎?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Well, you have no surprise. We have been clear that we want to increase our gas, upstream gas in the US So, it's quite clear, we have done different deals. We still have, I would say, a gap of almost one Bcf of this, so we can do it by many small deals, or we can do it in other ways, so we are studying that. Don't tell you we will do it, just told you that we have a currency, we could make some M&A in the US. And, when you look to, in the US, it's better to make deals with shares. The upside is that with 10%, you can do a deal. In cash, it's much more expensive because of fiscal regime. So that's, that's one of the idea.
這倒沒什麼好奇怪的。我們已經明確表示,我們希望增加在美國上游的天然氣供應。因此,很明顯,我們已經達成了不同的交易。我認為,我們仍然有近 10 億立方英尺的天然氣缺口,所以我們可以透過許多小額交易來彌補,或者我們可以用其他方式來彌補,所以我們正在研究這個問題。別跟你說我們會做到,我只是告訴你我們有貨幣,我們可以在美國進行一些併購。而且,在美國,用股票交易似乎比較好。好處是,10% 的首付就能達成交易。由於財政制度的原因,現金交易要貴得多。所以,這是其中一個想法。
So we'll see if it works or not. We have no, no more comment on that. But the idea to continue to find access to upstream gas in the US, that's a clear priority for us. It was in 2025, it still remains, to be clear. And then on the high margin, yes, you can take if you put the slide 10, where there was your famous $30. I was sure about the questions. I would not give you all the details, but, you have some oil fields, and you have some gas fields. Generally, the margin of the oil fields is much better than of the gas fields, I can tell you. And the oil fields that which are there are two in the US Gulf of Mexico.
所以我們會看看它是否有效。我們對此無可奉告。但繼續尋求在美國上游獲取天然氣的途徑,對我們來說顯然是重中之重。需要明確的是,2025年時,情況依然如此。然後,在高利潤方面,是的,如果你把幻燈片 10 放進去,那裡有你著名的 30 美元,你就可以拿走了。我確信這些問題是正確的。我不會透露所有細節,但是,你們有一些油田,也有一些天然氣田。一般而言,油田的利潤率比氣田高很多,我可以告訴你。而現有的油田只有兩個,位於美國墨西哥灣。
So no surprise, the US Gulf of Mexico is delivering quite high margin because fiscal terms are low, in fact, compared to others. And you have Brazil, which is also giving some good cash flow also. So that's the two ones. So I think and then the gas generally are lower or more traditionally, one. It's also true that in the mix, it's not there, but we are replacing barrels from the North Sea or barrels from Nigeria, SPDC, GV, which honestly have a low margin. So we replace these type of barrels by barrels which have a much lower. Even the gas barrels have a better margin for some of them than what we had in the portfolio.
因此,毫不奇怪,美國墨西哥灣的利潤率相當高,因為與其他地區相比,其財務條款實際上較低。還有巴西,它也提供了不錯的現金流。以上就是這兩個。所以我認為,然後天然氣的價格通常會更低,或者更傳統地說,一。誠然,目前混合油中確實沒有這種原油,但我們正在用它取代來自北海或奈及利亞、SPDC、GV 的原油,而這些原油的利潤率確實很低。因此,我們將這類木桶替換為重量低得多的木桶。即使是天然氣桶,其中一些的利潤率也比我們投資組合中的其他資產要高。
So that's also, I would say, a mix of barrels which we grow in the portfolio.
所以,我認為這也是我們投資組合中不同酒桶的組合。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Okay. Irene?
好的。艾琳?
Irene Himona - Equity Analyst
Irene Himona - Equity Analyst
Thank you. Irene Himona, Bernstein. If I go back to the cash accretive barrels, if we think about value as not cash flow but free cash flow, is there anything we can say about the CapEx of the new barrels in comparison with legacy oil and gas, and therefore the free cash flow generation of the new barrels.
謝謝。艾琳希莫娜,伯恩斯坦。如果我回到現金增值油桶的話題,如果我們把價值看作自由現金流而不是現金流,那麼與傳統油氣相比,我們能否對新油桶的資本支出以及由此產生的自由現金流做出一些評價?
And then my second question on integrated power. I mean, obviously, it will be a major, major milestone to turn a relatively young and very fast-growing business into free cash flow positive this year or next year. When I look at the renewable subsector of utilities, they're all cash negative and they remain cash negative, perhaps with one exception.
然後,我的第二個問題是關於整合電源的。我的意思是,很顯然,要讓一家相對年輕且成長非常迅速的企業在今年或明年實現自由現金流為正,將是一個非常重要的里程碑。當我查看公用事業中的再生能源子產業時,發現它們全部都是現金流為負,而且這種情況仍在持續,或許只有一個例外。
So I wanted to understand what it is that you have done so very differently to companies that have been in that business for far longer periods than you, some of which are much bigger than you are.
所以我想了解,你們究竟做了哪些與那些在這個行業經營時間比你們長得多,甚至規模比你們大得多的公司截然不同的事情。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
I can reverse the question. Why don't they do like us? I don't know. I know my figure. I don't have a huge experience. Our Board is asking us permanently to make some benchmarks on these big companies, but the size of the business makes it quite difficult for us to do it.
我可以反過來問這個問題。為什麼他們不像我們?我不知道。我知道我的身材。我經驗不算豐富。董事會一直要求我們對這些大公司進行一些基準測試,但由於業務規模龐大,我們很難做到這一點。
Honestly, I mean, maybe Stéphane has a recipe. It's a mix of -- I mean, again, the integration delivers the global cash. In '26, the 3 billion, we consider it will be 60% coming from the upstream. What we call upstream is renewables and gas-fired power plants. And 40% from the downstream, which are customers, B2B, B2C, and the trading. So just to give you an idea of the source of cash.
說實話,我的意思是,也許史蒂芬有食譜。這是多種因素的混合——我的意思是,再次強調,整合帶來了全球資金。2026 年,我們認為這 30 億美元中,60% 將來自上游。我們所說的上游能源指的是再生能源和燃氣發電廠。其中 40% 來自下游,包括客戶、B2B、B2C 和交易。為了讓你們了解資金來源,我先說明一下。
It's -- on the renewable part, we continue to invest, but in terms of free cash, the fact that we recycle the CapEx, we recycle a lot. This year we have sold for 2 billion of renewables, which allow us to finance, in fact, almost, not all, but 70% or 80% of the organic CapEx. So we are now at 8 gigawatts stabilized. We are no more growing the construction every year. The flow is 8 gigawatts. We are in a sort of permanent mode where, in fact, we more or less finance 80% of the renewable CapEx by the recycling of the CapEx. And that helps a lot because that means that's more than $500 million, and we generate more than that with our renewable portfolio.
在再生能源方面,我們會繼續投資,但在自由現金流方面,由於我們循環利用了資本支出,我們也利用了很多。今年我們已售出價值 20 億美元的再生能源,這使我們能夠為幾乎(雖然不是全部)70% 或 80% 的有機資本支出提供資金。所以我們現在穩定發電量已達 8 吉瓦。我們不再每年擴大建設規模了。流量為 8 吉瓦。我們現在處於一種永久性模式,實際上,我們或多或少是透過資本支出的回收來為 80% 的再生能源資本支出提供資金。這很有幫助,因為這意味著超過 5 億美元,而我們透過再生能源組合產生的收益遠不止這些。
So that's, I think, the discipline. I know that the question is, can you really recycle? This year we have managed to do it in quite a strong way. And now I think we are beginning to establish some platforms, for example, in the US with some large partners. It was Apollo, (inaudible), maybe on which we begin to see if we could follow up and follow on, I would say. And that the [farm dance] of 2026 could be done with one of these platforms.
所以,我認為,這就是紀律。我知道大家的問題是,真的可以回收嗎?今年我們以相當強勁的方式做到了這一點。現在我認為我們正在開始建立一些平台,例如在美國與一些大型合作夥伴合作。那是阿波羅計劃,(聽不清楚),也許我們可以從它開始看看我們是否可以跟進並繼續下去,我想說。而2026年的[農場舞會]或許可以透過這些平台之一來實現。
So we begin to industrialize this part of the model. But again, it's because we have a view, a long-term view. We stabilize at 8. Maybe my peers have, I don't know, they have other ideas to develop. I don't know. This is the way we look at it. But I take your point on free cash generation more globally. We didn't look at it that way, but this is what happens on the renewable. So at the end, by the way, this year, we have -- we didn't spend $4 billion. We spent only $3.5 billion. Part of it, but on the renewable part, the projects have been a little slower, but we were able to manage it and to manage the growth with less.
因此,我們開始將該模型的這一部分工業化。但話說回來,這是因為我們有遠見,有長遠的眼光。我們穩定在 8。也許我的同儕有,我不知道,他們可能有其他的想法需要發展。我不知道。我們是這樣看待這個問題的。但我同意你關於在全球範圍內創造自由現金流的觀點。我們之前沒那樣看待這個問題,但這就是再生能源領域正在發生的事情。所以最後,順便說一句,今年我們並沒有花費 40 億美元。我們只花了35億美元。部分原因是再生能源專案進展緩慢,但我們能夠應對,並且能夠以更少的資源成長。
I think we are also more selective in the -- more focused. I know we begin in '26, one of the plan on the renewable part is to get rid out of, we inherited many geographies with small projects. And that, honestly, when you have plenty of small projects in many countries, it's inefficient. You have difficulty to follow. You have too many teams per megawatt. So we now prefer to concentrate on less countries, but having teams which are more efficient in, I would say, megawatt per people, per staff. So that's also the other idea.
我認為我們在選擇方面也更加挑剔——更加專注。我知道我們從 2026 年開始,再生能源計畫的一部分是擺脫我們繼承的許多地區,這些地區只有小型專案。說實話,當你在許多國家有很多小型專案時,這樣做效率很低。你難以理解。每兆瓦的球隊數量太多了。所以我們現在更傾向於專注於較少的國家,但要讓團隊的效率更高,比如說,每人每員工的兆瓦效率。所以這也是另一個想法。
Michele?
米歇爾?
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Thank you very much. I wanted to ask two questions. We've seen an opening up of several countries or at least better fiscal terms that I total has operated in the past from Venezuela to Syria, Kuwait, et cetera. We've already seen the success you've had in in Iraq and Libya leading to new projects. How do you think of these opportunities.
非常感謝。我想問兩個問題。我們已經看到一些國家開放了,或至少提供了比以往更好的財政條件,從委內瑞拉到敘利亞,再到科威特等等。我們已經看到了你們在伊拉克和利比亞的成功,這些成功也促成了新的計畫。您如何看待這些機會?
And then I wanted to ask you on Tilenga, it starts up at the end of this year. It's a major part of the growth next year. When do you expect it to reach plateau on both phases?
然後我想問你關於Tilenga的問題,它將於今年年底開始。這是明年成長的重要組成部分。你預計這兩個階段何時會達到平台期?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
The plateau should be raised to be raised by mid-'27, to be clear. First [swain] being started this year, second swain the first half, so plateau by mid-'27. There is a delay, to be honest. It's not a strong performance instead of construction. Now, I'm sure, honestly, it's true that it's quite complex to -- the main difficulty we faced was to mobilize people on the ground. There was not so many, I would say, people with the right competencies locally. And we have been obliged.
明確地說,高原應該在 2027 年年中之前提升。第一名 [swain] 今年開始,第二個 swain 在上半年開始,所以到 2027 年中期達到穩定狀態。說實話,確實有延誤。這不是一場精彩的演出,而是一場建設。現在,說實話,這確實相當複雜——我們面臨的主要困難是動員基層人員。我認為,本地具備相應能力的人才並不多。我們對此深表感激。
And one of the main contractors has (inaudible) part of his business or one of his subcontractors to find people, to bring people. So we have much more Chinese on the ground that we were planning to have it. And all that makes -- we lost some, I think, we lost for me a year there in all the mobilization on the ground. No, it's down. So progress is back on track.
其中一位主要承包商有(聽不清楚)他的部分業務或他的一個分包商負責尋找人,招募。所以,我們實際部署的中國人員比我們原計劃多得多。所有這一切都導致——我認為,我們損失了一些,對我來說,我們在地面上的所有動員中損失了一年時間。不,它宕機了。所以,進展又回到了正軌。
Nicolas is following that every week himself. So we are back, but it's -- there is a delay. So fortunate. We have other source of growth, so it will feed next year. On the first question, first, we like what we've done in Iraq. We can do more in Iraq. We have opened the door. Some of us are following, but from the Iraqi authorities, they remember that we have opened the door. So we are welcome, and we will work with them. New government will be put in place.
尼古拉斯本人每週都會關注這件事。所以我們回來了,但是——有點延遲。真幸運。我們還有其他成長來源,所以明年還能繼續生長。關於第一個問題,首先,我們很滿意我們在伊拉克所做的事情。我們可以在伊拉克做得更多。我們已經打開了大門。我們當中有些人正在效仿,但伊拉克當局記得是我們打開了這扇門。所以我們很受歡迎,我們將與他們合作。新政府即將成立。
I think we have a strong partnership with Qatar as well, with QE. And we have established, and the teams, honestly, to have been able in two years to sign all these contracts in Iraq. It's a huge performance for our teams to have been able to go through the whole system and also good relations with the Basra Oil company. So all that is an ecosystem. So let's continue to Iraq.
我認為我們與卡達,特別是卡達能源公司(QE),也建立了牢固的夥伴關係。我們已經建立起團隊,坦白說,能夠在兩年內與伊拉克簽署所有這些合約。對於我們的團隊來說,能夠順利通過整個流程並與巴士拉石油公司保持良好的關係,是一項巨大的成就。所以這一切構成了一個生態系統。那我們就繼續前往伊拉克。
Libya, it's more (inaudible), but I don't know, Libyan mountains. We managed, together with [Kanako], to have these new fiscal terms. So now we can, we have better terms, including which will be applied to the existing production. But we have an incentive to invest, so we want to invest in the North (inaudible) projects. The other main challenge will be to mobilize contractors because Libya is not yet, I would say, a fully stable country.
利比亞,更(聽不清楚),但我不知道,利比亞的山脈。我們和[加奈子]一起成功爭取到了這些新的財政條款。所以現在我們可以,我們有了更好的條款,包括將適用於現有產品的條款。但我們有投資的動力,所以我們想投資北方(聽不清楚)專案。另一個主要挑戰是調動承包商,因為我認為利比亞還不是一個完全穩定的國家。
I see a lot of enthusiasm, but it's still -- and so we need to convince good contractors, strong contractors to come and -- in order to build in Libya. But again, in both cases, it's very cheap oil. So renewing reserves, there is a big potential there. It's good. Waha production today is around 400,000 or 350,000 oil per day. We can easily increase that to 500,000, 600,000 oil per day. There is a huge potential, which is identified. It's a matter to execute projects in this area.
我看到了大家的熱情,但情況仍然如此——所以我們需要說服優秀的承包商、實力雄厚的承包商來利比亞進行建設。但話說回來,無論哪種情況,石油都非常便宜。因此,在補充儲備方面,存在著巨大的潛力。很好。瓦哈油田目前的日產量約為 40 萬至 35 萬桶原油。我們可以輕鬆地將日產量提高到 50 萬、60 萬桶石油。這裡蘊藏著巨大的潛力,這一點已經被發現。這是執行該領域項目的問題。
Beyond it, you mentioned some interesting countries, very different. Kuwait, I was in Kuwait, so I have an interest for Kuwait. I have one dream, which is to put TotalEnergies in each of the countries of the Middle East, so I'm continuing. They have announced that they'll be open to international partner to develop offshore. True or not, we'll see. We'll look at it. They need some competence. Others will look at it. Obviously, we are not the only one, but it's an opportunity. It might be.
除此之外,你也提到了一些很有趣、非常不同的國家。我去過科威特,所以我對科威特很有興趣。我有一個夢想,那就是將 TotalEnergies 帶到中東的每個國家,所以我正在繼續努力。他們已宣布將與國際合作夥伴共同進行海外開發。真假難辨,我們拭目以待。我們會調查一下。他們需要具備一定的能力。其他人也會關注它。顯然,我們不是唯一一家,但這的確是一個機會。有可能。
What are the fiscal terms? I don't know. I need to see if at the end -- because all that, it's a matter of risk and reward. Syria, the stakes are maybe not so high, in fact. And so there are teams or explorers are looking with others together to see what we think about the quality of the rocks. And I don't want to be -- to judge about it. We ask them to review. But we know onshore we were producing, but the stakes were quite small, I would say, at our size.
財政條款是什麼?我不知道。我需要看看最終結果如何——因為這一切都是風險與回報的問題。事實上,敘利亞的局勢可能沒有那麼危急。因此,一些團隊或探險家與其他人一起尋找岩石的質量,看看我們對此有何看法。我不想——去評判這件事。我們請他們進行審核。但我們知道我們在陸上也有生產,但就我們這樣的規模而言,風險相當小。
So it's a question at the end also for us. We don't have infinite resources, human resources, and competencies. So we cannot go everywhere. And now we have this new Namibia. Clearly, I see much more potential of profits in Namibia today than in (inaudible). It's a question as well of potential for the future. And Venezuela, I already answered, is not at the top of the pile of my files.
所以,這最終也是我們需要思考的問題。我們的資源、人力資源和能力都是有限的。所以我們不能去所有地方。現在我們有了這個全新的納米比亞。顯然,我認為如今納米比亞的獲利潛力遠大於其他國家。(聽不清楚)這也是關乎未來潛力的問題。至於委內瑞拉,我已經回答過了,它不是我最優先處理的文件。
Because we are consistent we have said in the past that we concentrate our investments on oil which is lower than $20 per barrel, low-cost oil. Oil in Venezuela does not fit with that, because it's not only a frame. It's also upgrading and the whole system. We are there. So I think it's not a priority. And I think all that needs to be stabilized before to rethink to all that. That's what I think.
因為我們一貫如此,我們過去曾說過,我們將投資集中在價格低於每桶 20 美元的石油,也就是低成本石油。委內瑞拉的石油並不符合這個規律,因為它不只是一個框架。它還在進行升級,整個系統都在升級。我們到了。所以我認為這不是當務之急。我認為所有這些都需要先穩定下來,才能重新考慮所有這些。我也是這麼想的。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Chris?
克里斯?
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
Thank you. Two questions. Thank you for the presentation. Patrick, I've noticed the CFFO payout link has disappeared, and I wonder with free cash flow inflection coming from integrated power whether you're considering how that changes your linkage in terms of payout policies as we move into 2027, and finally integrated power actually helps finance some of the buybacks and dividends. That's question number one.
謝謝。兩個問題。感謝您的演講。派翠克,我注意到 CFFO 派息連結已經消失了,我想知道隨著綜合電力業務的自由現金流拐點出現,您是否考慮過這會如何改變您 2027 年的派息政策,以及綜合電力業務最終如何幫助資助一些股票回購和股息。這是第一個問題。
And number two is again on M&A. I guess EPH was a great example of a non-competitive deal, but then Namibia was very competitive, and it seems you should be in a good position to tell us what the M&A environment is like today for, let's call them undeveloped resources. Where are you seeing the market there?
第二點還是關於併購。我想EPH是一個很好的非競爭性交易的例子,但納米比亞時競爭非常激烈,所以您應該很了解如今未開發資源領域的併購環境。你覺得那裡的市場在哪裡?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
The mention of the more than 40% payout was in the last slide, if I remember well, so it did not disappear. It's just, it's 40% again, I think it'll be clear, this year Jean Pierre said 40%, 55% payout. It's too high. This is a view of the Board. 55%, we reach a point where we are high and in fact the payout has been high and we finance it by the debt.
如果我沒記錯的話,提到超過 40% 的收益是在最後一張投影片上,所以它並沒有消失。就是,又是 40%,我想會很清楚的,今年讓-皮埃爾說的是 40% 或 55% 的派息率。高得離譜。這是董事會的觀點。 55%的持股比例已經很高了,事實上,分紅也很高,而我們是透過舉債來融資的。
Fundamentally, when you look to the financial of 2025, buyback has been financed by the debt, which is possible. For me, the view I have on it is that in 2022 we benefited from incredible high cash which have, by the way, lower the net debt, the gearing down to 7%, 8%. So having a year where somewhere we give back part of this extra cash that we get in '22, '23 for this buyback in '25, it's a nice way. We've done it for a special dividend. We do it for buyback.
從根本上講,展望 2025 年的財務狀況,股票回購是透過債務融資的,這是有可能的。就我個人而言,我認為我們在 2022 年受益於驚人的高現金流,順便說一句,這降低了淨債務,並將槓桿率降至 7%、8%。所以,如果我們能把 2022 年、2023 年獲得的額外現金的一部分用於 2025 年的回購,那將是一個不錯的方式。我們這樣做是為了派發特別股息。我們這樣做是為了回購。
We come back to, I would say, what is a normal gearing around 15%. We cannot repeat that. We cannot repeat it. So the 40% guidance was probably good when we gave it to you, okay. We'll see integrated power is the good news because of the EPH deal. We will accelerate the year, and it might be '26 where we will be net cash positive. So this will change.
我想說,正常的齒輪比大約是 15%。我們不能重蹈覆轍。我們不能重蹈覆轍。所以,我們當時給的 40% 的指導意見可能還不錯,好嗎?我們將看到,由於與EPH的交易,電力一體化是一個好消息。我們將加快今年的發展步伐,或許到 2026 年就能達到淨現金流為正。所以這種情況將會改變。
In our plans, it was not fully clear that we'll reach it. We accelerate. We are more and more confident, even if I understand the depth of (inaudible). What did you find? Is there something magic which could disappear suddenly? That's why I'm cautious. I'm still continue to monitor that, step after step to observe the results, the cash flow, and then we'll be more confident. So I cannot just change the guidance just because we have a perspective.
在我們的計劃中,我們並不完全清楚是否能夠實現這個目標。我們加速前進。我們越來越有信心,即使我理解其中的深度。(聽不清楚)你發現了什麼?是否存在某種魔法,會突然消失?這就是我謹慎的原因。我仍將繼續密切關注,一步一步地觀察結果和現金流,然後我們才會更有信心。所以我不能因為我們持有不同的觀點就改變指導方針。
I want this to be delivered and then we'll be able to build on it with you and to see, to give you more guidance, including this integrated business. Undeveloped resource, it's fundamental to have access to undeveloped resource. I was looking at the way we have managed to renew our reserves for the last three or four years.
我希望這個專案能夠順利完成,然後我們就可以在此基礎上與你們共同推進,並給予你們更多指導,包括這項整合業務。未開發資源,取得未開發資源至關重要。我一直在研究我們過去三、四年是如何補充儲備金的。
When we look to what we've done, part is coming from more exploration from [Mogo], Namibia, Kaminho, but of course there was two other big sources, one, the LNG part, the Qatar deals obviously are giving quite a large resource, and also from the [Emirates] part or UAE concessions that we bought in 2015. In fact, we have, we are planning to produce 4 million barrels per day. Today we are going to 5 million barrels per day, which is a huge increase.
回顧我們所取得的成就,一部分來自納米比亞的莫戈(Mogo)和卡米尼奧(Kaminho)的更多勘探,但當然還有另外兩個主要來源,一是液化天然氣部分,卡塔爾的交易顯然帶來了相當大的資源,二是阿聯酋部分,或者說我們在 2015 年購買的阿聯酋特許經營權。事實上,我們已經計劃每天生產 400 萬桶。今天我們的日產量將達到500萬桶,這是一個巨大的成長。
We benefit from that even if you have only 10% to 20%. Beyond it, you have quite a large resource. And so I think this is a lesson, by the way, when you acquire a license in this type of country, you should not just look at what you obtained immediately, but the potential to grow beyond. And so yes, we continue to work on this idea like we've done in Iraq, like Libya, and that's part of the business, and you could have access to that to very, I would say, cheap costs.
即使你只有 10% 到 20% 的股份,我們也能從中受益。除此之外,你還擁有相當豐富的資源。所以我認為這給我們一個教訓:在這個類型的國家獲得許可證時,你不應該只專注於你立即獲得的東西,而應該專注於未來的發展潛力。所以,是的,我們會像在伊拉克和利比亞一樣,繼續推進這個想法,這是業務的一部分,而且你可以以非常低廉的成本獲得它。
On Galp, we managed to get it. I don't know if it was competitive. It was a long competition which at a certain point I didn't know where we are going. At the end, we had one edge, to be honest, we were the only one to be able to offer a swap somewhere this position in Namibia on Venus, and this was very attractive to them. So it's thanks to Exploration that somewhere we have embarked in the deal with Galp. So there are implications, I think.
在 Galp 上,我們成功拿到了它。我不知道比賽是否激烈。這是一場漫長的比賽,到了某個階段,我都不知道我們最終會走到哪一步了。說實話,最後我們還是佔了上風,我們是唯一一家能夠提供金星納米比亞位置交換的公司,這對他們來說非常有吸引力。所以,多虧了 Exploration,我們才得以與 Galp 達成交易。所以我認為這其中是有一定影響的。
Today, the market is still high, still expensive, so you need to be smart if you don't want to pay in cash. Still expensive. People still expect $70 per barrel. The deals in M&A are quite expensive. So this is not what we have done, or you need to -- but I gave one constraint to Arnaud when he came for me from (inaudible). I told him, okay, it's nice, but no cash, so find a good idea. He finds the idea of the swap, so to him -- [so no cash].
如今市場行情依然高企,物價依然昂貴,所以如果你不想用現金支付,就需要精明一點。依然很貴。人們仍然預期每桶價格為 70 美元。併購交易的成本相當高。所以這不是我們做的,或者說你需要做的——但我給阿諾定了一條規矩,當時他來接我。(聽不清楚)我告訴他,好吧,這主意不錯,但沒現金,所以你得想個好主意。他覺得交換的想法很不錯。——(所以沒有現金)。
Let's continue. Okay, Lydia.
我們繼續。好的,莉迪亞。
Lydia Rainforth - Analyst
Lydia Rainforth - Analyst
Thanks. It's Lydia from Barclays. And two questions, both AI related. On the idea of selling to data centers, how much of the -- when you think about 60 terawatt hours going to 100 terawatt hours, how much of that uplift do you think you can sell to data centers? And that 10% premium, is it actually enough? Because ultimately the value that data centers get of having power straight away, it should possibly be -- you should be able to get higher premiums. I'm just challenging you on that bit.
謝謝。我是巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞。還有兩個問題,都與人工智慧有關。關於向資料中心售電的想法,當您考慮從 60 太瓦增加到 100 太瓦時,您認為其中有多少成長可以賣給資料中心?那10%的溢價,真的夠嗎?因為資料中心最終獲得電力所帶來的價值,應該是-你應該能夠獲得更高的溢價。我只是就這一點跟你提出質疑。
And then the second one of TotalEnergies own AI technology. Patrick, you talked about getting agents next week, but that idea of what's the prize here? Is it increased production, 1%, 2% a year? Is it recovery rates? Just what -- I'm not going to hold you to any of this, but just that ambition around it.
其次是TotalEnergies自主研發的人工智慧技術。派崔克,你之前說過下週要找經紀人,但是,你覺得最終的獎勵是什麼呢?是每年增產 1% 還是 2%?是康復率嗎?究竟是什麼——我不會要求你做到這些,只是希望你在這方面有雄心壯志。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Okay. I learned that you have an [agent], so you need to teach me now. No, clearly, but I will let the floor to Namita and Stéphane to answer the question. On the second one, we are more -- yes, we are looking to availability of the plants. I mean, recovery rates, maybe. I mean, on the subsurface, we are not too clear. There is a work stream, but it's not too clear.
好的。我聽說你有經紀人,所以你現在需要教我了。不,顯然不是,但我會把發言權交給 Namita 和 Stéphane 來回答這個問題。關於第二個問題,我們更關注的是植物的供應情況。我的意思是,或許是康復率。我的意思是,在地下層面,我們不太清楚。確實有一個工作流程,但不是很清晰。
It's more really on the way we run all these machines to be more efficient, to gain 1%, 2% of additional availability because we have a better maintenance. But really, on the subsurface, I'm skeptical on this one. But again, we are working. So Jean, you take the first question. Namita, you can compliment. Nicolas the first one, second one.
實際上,更重要的是我們如何運行所有這些機器以提高效率,透過更好的維護來獲得 1% 或 2% 的額外可用性。但說真的,從本質上講,我對這件事持懷疑態度。但是,我們仍在努力。那麼,珍妮,你來回答第一個問題。娜米塔,你可以讚美她。尼古拉斯,第一個,第二個。
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
So on the first question, what is the potential? It's clear that in the US, we see that on the notably in Texas, where we have most of our production, that's one-third of the growth of the market. So then, I mean, that's an indication of what we could imagine for us in the US. It has yet to materialize in Europe, but we see the first deal, the ongoing discussion of the first deal. So I believe that's going to come.
那麼對於第一個問題,它的潛力是什麼?很明顯,在美國,尤其是在我們大部分生產地所在的德州,我們看到市場成長了三分之一。所以,我的意思是,這顯示了我們在美國可以想像的未來。雖然它尚未在歐洲實現,但我們看到了第一份協議,以及對第一份協議的持續討論。所以我相信那一天終會到來。
And in Europe, it's clear that it could be even more because we don't see the same industrial demand coming. So it could be even larger than that. Then we have to be cautious to the premium because, as I tried to explain, there are three sources of revenue. The first one is the additional premium you can sell through your PPA. That's one. And honestly, I don't expect to get that much higher than what it is today but --
而在歐洲,很明顯這種情況可能會更嚴重,因為我們看不到同樣的工業需求出現。所以它的實際大小可能比這還要大。那麼我們就必須謹慎對待溢價,因為正如我試圖解釋的那樣,收入來源有三個。第一種是您可以透過購電協議 (PPA) 出售的額外保費。這是其中之一。說實話,我不指望它能比現在高出多少,但是--
Second, the fact that you are able to provide land, the fact that you are able to give them access to a connection grid can be sold. And that's not included in the PPA, and that can be a serious value. Yet too materialized, but that can be a serious value. And the last point that we need to highlight, especially in a market like Texas, for example, we all know that the price are linked to the [node], so where you are, and there could be some difference between the price at the node, the price at the node, and the price globally.
其次,你能夠提供土地,能夠讓他們連接電網,這些都可以當作賣點。而且這部分費用不包含在購電協議 (PPA) 中,這可能是一筆不小的損失。然而,它過於物質化,但這可能是一種重要的價值。最後一點需要強調的是,尤其是在像德克薩斯州這樣的市場中,我們都知道價格與[節點]相關,因此,你所在的位置,節點上的價格與全球價格之間可能會有一些差異。
If you are able to bring additional demand, you are going to improve the supply-demand balance of where you are. And that's at the strong implication on not the contract you are selling, but if you have a bulk of assets, then you are going to improve not only what you sell, but you will improve what you sell on the rest of your asset.
如果你能夠帶來額外的需求,你就能改善你所在地區的供需平衡。這強烈暗示著,這不僅關乎你正在出售的合約,而且如果你擁有大量資產,那麼你不僅會改善你出售的合約,還會改善你出售的其他資產的價值。
And that indirect part is as well very important. One of the reasons why we see so many Bitcoin miners and where we try to attract them is as well to improve globally the level of the market. So if you start to accumulate the free ideas, then that's a significant improvement of your profitability.
而間接部分也同樣非常重要。我們看到這麼多比特幣礦工,我們試圖吸引他們的原因之一,也是為了提高全球市場水平。所以,如果你開始累積免費的創意,那麼你的獲利能力就會顯著提高。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Namita, you want to comment?
娜米塔,你想發表意見嗎?
Namita Shah - President, OneTech, Member of the Executive Committee
Namita Shah - President, OneTech, Member of the Executive Committee
Yes. So I agree with what Patrick said. Our main goal is, of course, to increase production. And I can give you some concrete examples. The first is just digital in general. If we look at something like just process control, which was something that we did a lot in our refineries but now can be done on our Exploration & Production assets with some of the tests we've done. Even an increase of between 1% to 2% of production on our assets is, of course, just enormous.
是的。所以我同意派崔克的說法。我們的主要目標當然是提高產量。我可以舉一些具體的例子。第一種是指一般的數位化。如果我們看看像製程控制這樣的事情,這曾經是我們煉油廠經常做的事情,但現在透過我們進行的一些測試,也可以在我們的勘探和生產資產中完成。即使我們資產的產量只增加 1% 到 2%,當然也是個巨大的進步。
But then if you add to that things like less breakdowns, again, we focus traditionally on very large pieces of equipment, like our turbines. But what we realize is that we have a lot of breakdowns with very small pieces of equipment. And the idea of getting connections to over 70% of our equipment is to have less breakdown. So that combination is something that obviously increases production.
但是,如果再加上故障率降低等因素,我們傳統上專注於大型設備,例如我們的渦輪機。但我們發現,很多小型設備都故障了。實現 70% 以上設備連網的目的是為了減少故障。所以這種組合顯然可以提高產量。
On the subsurface side, AI is probably in the very early stages of whether we can do more recovery. But where it can really help is accelerate. That means acceleration of FIDs, if you can and analyze quicker, and if you can drill faster and with more precision, which means quicker tiebacks as well, and not just on large projects, but on smaller ones. So I think those are the two sort of main focuses where I think in Exploration & Production we can use AI effectively.
在地下方面,人工智慧能否進行更多復原工作可能還處於非常早期的階段。但它真正能發揮作用的地方是加速。這意味著,如果可以的話,加快 FID 的分析速度,如果可以的話,加快鑽孔速度並提高精度,這意味著也能更快地完成回拉,而且不僅適用於大型項目,也適用於小型項目。所以我認為,在勘探與生產領域,我們可以有效地利用人工智慧的這兩個主要面向就是這兩點。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Okay, Alejandro.
好的,亞歷杭德羅。
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Alejandro Vigil from Santander. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is I'm very interested about your views about CO2 regulation in Europe. Now you're going to be one of the largest generators in Europe after the [EPA's] acquisition. I'm interested in your thoughts about the system. It needs some changes, et cetera. And the second question is we are also seeing a consolidation process in oil services and drilling. And it looks like there is a new wave of investments in the (inaudible) business, your thoughts about potential inflation a cause in the investment in the absolute.
來自桑坦德的亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾。謝謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題是,我對您對歐洲二氧化碳監管的看法非常感興趣。收購完成後,你們將成為歐洲最大的發電公司之一。我很想聽聽你對這個系統的看法。它需要做一些修改等等。第二個問題是,我們也看到石油服務和鑽井產業正在經歷整合過程。看來(聽不清楚)產業出現了一波新的投資浪潮,您認為潛在的通貨膨脹是絕對投資的原因嗎?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
I don't like consolidation. As a point, it depends on the market. It depends on the market, but if you have a market which is already limited to three player or four and you go to two, it becomes a problem. No, and I'm clear on it.
我不喜歡合併。從某種意義上說,這取決於市場。這取決於市場狀況,但如果一個市場已經限制為三人或四人遊戲,而你卻要限制為兩人遊戲,那就成問題了。不,我很清楚。
So there are some considerations we don't support because at the end we see the impact. By the way, today, I think -- and we observe it in the tenders, the offers we just received for Namibia, we see a stabilization of the market. I think it's linked to the oil price. We are no more at 80, going down to 70. It could go lower. So I think it has an impact, clearly, on the service industry.
所以有些想法我們不支持,因為最終我們會看到其影響。順便說一句,我認為,今天——我們在剛剛收到的納米比亞招標報價中也看到了這一點——市場趨於穩定。我認為這與油價有關。我們不再是80人了,而是降到了70人。價格可能還會更低。所以我認為這顯然會對服務業產生影響。
But -- and to be honest, even some companies, some service companies have tried to combine their offers by linking wealth and subsidy. We didn't see, honestly, in the offers we received any advantage of it. So they tried to (inaudible) to us an integration. Maybe it's good for them, but as a customer, we didn't see a lot of value of this type of approach of integration, I would say, on subsea and wells or things like that. We worked a lot.
但說實話,甚至有些公司,一些服務公司,也試圖透過將財富和補貼聯繫起來來整合他們的產品和服務。說實話,在我們收到的報價中,我們沒有看到它的任何優勢。所以他們試著(聽不清楚)向我們整合。也許這對他們來說是好事,但作為客戶,我們並沒有看到這種整合方式在海底和油井之類的領域有多大價值。我們工作了很多。
And even if we are ready to look particularly on drilling, we are developing today an approach where we give more integrated contracts rather than or self-taking the different bits and pieces to give it to one company. We've done that in Iraq, for obvious reasons, to be more efficient. We are looking to do that as well for the -- there we see an added value for us. To select one which will integrate is good for them, but it's good for us.
即使我們準備專注於鑽井領域,我們目前也在發展一種新的方法,即簽訂更全面的合同,而不是將不同的部分拆分成一個公司來承包。我們在伊拉克也這樣做過,原因顯而易見,是為了提高效率。我們也希望這樣做——我們認為這對我們來說具有附加價值。選擇一個能夠融入團隊的人對他們有好處,對我們也有好處。
So on this one, the demonstration has to be done that we, as customers, are really benefiting from this type of consolidation or integration. So I like competition, fundamentally. It's better to keep competition. By the way, it's normal in a liberal world. CO2 regulation in Europe. It's an interesting question for Stéphane, because Stéphane is a guy which they permanently told me you must promote the CO2 price because of renewables.
因此,在這方面,必須證明我們作為客戶確實從這種整合或整合中受益。從根本上來說,我喜歡競爭。保持競爭是好事。順便說一句,這在自由主義世界裡很正常。歐洲的二氧化碳監管。對史蒂芬來說,這是一個有趣的問題,因為史蒂芬一直告訴我,你必須推廣二氧化碳價格,因為再生能源的普及。
Now he has some gas-fired power plants, so let's see what he will arbitrate between the two parts of it. So the question is for you, Stéphane.
現在他擁有一些燃氣發電廠,讓我們看看他會如何調解這兩部分之間的關係。所以問題問你了,斯特凡。
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
No, I think that there are several questions. One, we have the [ETS1] system where there is a question mark on how fast are we going to reduce the level of Qatar and what's going to be the consequence on the CO2 price. So as mentioned, Patrick, we are a buyer of CO2 for refining industry and at the same time power price are linked to CO2 price. I've got CCGT which are more value when CO2 price is higher. I've got renewable which has more value when CO2 price is higher.
不,我認為有幾個問題。第一,我們有 [ETS1] 系統,但問題是,我們將以多快的速度降低卡達的排放量,以及這對二氧化碳價格會產生什麼影響。正如我之前提到的,派崔克,我們是煉油業的二氧化碳買家,同時電力價格與二氧化碳價格掛鉤。我擁有CCGT(聯合循環燃氣渦輪機),當二氧化碳價格較高時,它們的價值更高。我擁有再生能源,當二氧化碳價格較高時,它的價值就更高了。
So it's clear that Integrated Power part will benefit from an increase of CO2. There are question marks today on where that market is going, given the balance between the speed of the decrease and potentially the increase in demand. We are quite happy with the way the market is functioning today and with this balance. And at the end of the day, if we want the transition to take place, it will have to take place with a higher price of CO2.
因此很明顯,整合電源部分將受益於二氧化碳排放量的增加。鑑於需求下降的速度與潛在成長之間的平衡,目前市場走向尚不明朗。我們對目前市場的運作方式和這種平衡狀態感到非常滿意。歸根究底,如果我們想要實現轉型,就必須接受更高的二氧化碳價格。
At the same time, we need to be cautious on what's going to happen for the industry because we need as well to maintain the demand of the industry. That's one aspect. Then you have the [ETS2] system and so on, but that has marginal consequence, honestly, on what we do. So we are more focusing on the ETS1, on which, as I said, we are quite satisfied with the current situation.
同時,我們需要對產業未來的發展保持謹慎,因為我們也需要維持產業的需求。這是一方面。然後還有 [ETS2] 系統等等,但說實話,這對我們所做的事情影響甚微。因此,我們更加關注ETS1,正如我所說,我們對目前的情況相當滿意。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
So fundamentally we like the price of CO2. Just to be clear. Otherwise, there will be zero transitions. So up to Europe to decide what they want. And then if you want to make an exception for the high emitters or your heavy industry, you have ways to do it if you want to to support these industries without necessarily doing it for the price of CO2. So two different topics.
所以從根本上來說,我們喜歡二氧化碳的價格。澄清一下。否則,將不會發生任何轉換。所以,最終由歐洲來決定他們想要什麼。如果你想為高排放企業或重工業破例,你可以採取一些方法來支持這些產業,而無需考慮二氧化碳的價格。這是兩個不同的話題。
The debate mix both, but you can have other ways to support your industry than just lowering the CO2 or stopping the decrease of quota, et cetera, et cetera. I think this is a real fundamental question for the policymakers. And today, the debate is difficult.
這場辯論將兩者混為一談,但除了降低二氧化碳排放量或停止減少配額等之外,你還可以透過其他方式來支持你的產業。我認為這對政策制定者來說是一個真正根本性的問題。而如今,這場辯論變得十分艱難。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Henri?
亨利?
Henri Patricot - Equity Analyst
Henri Patricot - Equity Analyst
Henri Patricot, UBS. Thank you for the presentation. Two questions. The first one was on FIDs for '26, '27. You've mentioned, Venus for the 2026. Which of the projects do you see as more likely to go ahead over the next couple of years? Which ones are more challenging across oil and LNG? And then secondly on LNG, during the presentation you mentioned the risk of new project delays in '26. What do you see the risk for the projects in which you're involved in Qatar?
亨利‧帕特里科特,瑞銀集團。感謝您的演講。兩個問題。第一個是關於 2026 年和 2027 年的 FID。你提到過,2026 年金星會是吉星。您認為未來幾年內哪些項目更有可能推進?在石油和液化天然氣領域,哪些挑戰更大?其次,關於液化天然氣,在演講中您提到了 2026 年新專案延期的風險。您認為您在卡達參與的計畫有哪些風險?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Again, I was on the one for us on the NFE in Qatar. We were in Doha. The whole industry was in Doha last week. And we discussed -- again, I discussed not only with [Qatar], with Technip Energies, which is a main contractor. They say second quarter. We put third quarter. We are a little cautious. So third quarter is probably more relative.
我又一次代表我們參加了在卡達舉行的NFE計畫。我們在杜哈。上週整個產業都在杜哈。我們進行了討論——我不僅與卡達方面進行了討論,還與主要承包商 Technip Energies 進行了討論。他們說是第二季。我們進入了第三季。我們有點謹慎。所以第三季的情況可能更具相對性。
So I see that progressing well on the ground. We'll see if the finalization, but again, I don't see that as a risk on this one. On ECA, I think we have been too long to wait, but now it's again. So the technique is transferring the installation by May, I think. And we said (inaudible) this one, we could face some quality issues. We have a concern about the quality of the work which has been done. So it needs to be checked.
所以我覺得這方面進展順利。我們拭目以待最終結果,但再次強調,我認為這次不存在風險。關於出口管制法案(ECA),我認為我們已經等得太久了,但現在又要等了。所以,我認為這項技術將在五月完成安裝轉移。我們當時就說過(聽不清楚)這個產品,可能會遇到一些品質問題。我們對已完成的工作品質表示擔憂。所以需要核實一下。
But again, third quarter for both. The sanctions in '26. So we have Venus. We have a project in Nigeria called [IMA], which is a gas project to continue to feed this Train 7, the famous Train 7. So we have progressed a lot. Now we have large attenders. We had a meeting last week. So we said go. So the idea is to sanction the projects in '26, and it's important. It's an easy project, but in Nigeria, even if easy, it's always a little slow.
但同樣,這都是第三季的情況。26 年的製裁。所以我們有了金星。我們在奈及利亞有一個名為 [IMA] 的項目,這是一個天然氣項目,旨在繼續為著名的 7 號列車提供燃料。所以我們取得了很大進展。現在來賓很多。我們上週開過會。於是我們決定出發。所以,我們的想法是在 2026 年批准這些項目,這很重要。這是一個簡單的項目,但在尼日利亞,即使簡單,進展也總是有點慢。
We face some hurdles, local hurdles, but it seems to be this one. Then we have the question of Papua LNG. So either we sanction or we have an issue. So the plan is to sanction in '26. We'll see. There is different workstream together, to put together, because it's a CapEx, it's fiscal, CapEx, financing, and marketing. So you have different workstream. We should converge all of them by middle of the year, I would say.
我們面臨一些障礙,一些地方性的障礙,但似乎就是這個障礙。接下來我們來談談巴布亞液化天然氣計畫。所以要嘛我們予以製裁,要嘛我們就遇到問題了。所以計劃是在 2026 年進行製裁。我們拭目以待。不同的工作流程需要整合在一起,因為它是資本支出,涉及財務、資本支出、融資和行銷。所以你們有不同的工作流程。我認為我們應該在年中之前把所有這些問題都解決掉。
It's not done, but if we don't manage to do it, now that we have, I think, optimized the CapEx, we don't see what we could do better than what we have. We are around $14 billion, $15 billion, not at $18 billion, but not at $12 billion, that's why I speak [fiscal] so we have a clear discussion a clear engagement with the government and with the partners we see where we land, and we'll have to take the decision in '26.
雖然還沒完成,但如果我們最終沒能做到,既然我們已經優化了資本支出,我想我們看不到還能做得比現在更好的辦法了。我們現在的預算在 140 億美元到 150 億美元之間,不是 180 億美元,也不是 120 億美元,這就是為什麼我要用(財政)術語,這樣我們才能與政府和合作夥伴進行清晰的討論和明確的溝通,看看最終結果如何,我們將在 2026 年做出決定。
But I would say, what else do you have, [Nicola]?
但我會問,你還有什麼其他的?[尼古拉]?
Henri Patricot - Equity Analyst
Henri Patricot - Equity Analyst
(inaudible - microphone inaccessible)
(聽不清楚 - 麥克風無法使用)
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Yeah, but that's a license to be obtained, so it's not yet a decision.
是的,但這需要獲得許可證,所以現在還不能下定論。
Henri Patricot - Equity Analyst
Henri Patricot - Equity Analyst
(inaudible - microphone inaccessible)
(聽不清楚 - 麥克風無法使用)
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Oh, it's business development. No, no, you are going too quick. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. No way. That's the optimism of the upstream. No, no, no. I have no -- there is no way to get the FID on Marsa of Train 2 in '26, '27, no way. Otherwise, you have to drill a well to appraise, okay? So I know our process.
哦,這是業務拓展。不,不,你太快了。不,不,不,不,不,不,不。決不。這就是上游的樂觀態度。不,不,不。我沒有——沒有辦法獲得 2026 年、2027 年 Marsa 2 號列車的 FID,絕對沒有辦法。否則,就得鑽井進行評估,懂嗎?所以我了解我們的流程。
It's good to have some good momentum from the President of upstream, but I'm -- after that, they will just ask us to report on it. So no, no. It's still business development, this one. We are working with Romani to say if beyond the first train we could build another one, benefit from it.
上游總裁給予的積極推動固然是好事,但之後他們只會要求我們報告情況。所以不,不。這仍然是業務拓展方面的工作。我們正在與羅曼尼公司商討,如果除了第一列火車之外,我們還能建造另一列火車,並從中受益。
We have identified some gas. We need to be sure that we have enough gas resources. I will not -- we will not build a train without be sure to have the gas. That's for me, just a fundamental when speak about LNG.
我們發現了一些氣體。我們需要確保有足夠的天然氣資源。我不會——我們不會在沒有確保有天然氣的情況下建造火車。對我來說,這是談到液化天然氣時的一個基本前提。
Okay, what else?
好的,還有什麼?
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Kim, go ahead.
金,請講。
Kim Fustier - Analyst
Kim Fustier - Analyst
Thank you. It's Kim Fustier of HSBC. Two quick questions on the upstream, please. The first one is on Mozambique LNG. You've now restarted construction. Could you talk about the revised timeline for the project in terms of remobilization and first LNG?
謝謝。他是匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。關於上游,請問兩個問題。第一個項目是莫三比克液化天然氣計畫。您已重新啟動施工。您能否談談該專案在重新動員和首批液化天然氣方面修訂後的時間表?
And secondly, maybe just a word on the NEO NEXT+ transaction in the UK North Sea. I guess what's the impact there on production CapEx, maybe future growth? And do you see a similar structure elsewhere elsewhere in the world potentially being applied?
其次,或許可以簡單談談英國北海的 NEO NEXT+ 交易。我想這會對生產資本支出以及未來的成長產生什麼影響?您認為世界其他地方是否有可能應用類似的結構?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
The second question, sorry?
第二個問題,不好意思?
Kim Fustier - Analyst
Kim Fustier - Analyst
NEO NEXT+ in UK.
英國的 NEO NEXT+。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
NEO NEXT+, okay. First one, we have been clear, we have restarted today. I visited -- I was with the President of Mozambique in Afungi, so we have almost 5,000 people on the ground already, 4,000 local, 1,000 inpatriates. We need to reach 15,000 to be at full speed. So the ramp up will take off.
NEO NEXT+,好的。首先,我們已經說得很清楚了,我們今天已經重新開始。我訪問了——我和莫三比克總統一起去了阿豐吉,所以我們已經在當地有近 5000 人,其中 4000 人是當地人,1000 人是外籍人士。我們需要達到 15,000 才能全速運轉。所以產能爬坡將會加速進行。
In fact, again, I would say all the engineering is done at 90% or 95%. Procurement of all the long-lead item has been done. So now it's a matter of construction underground. So the plan is to deliver the project by '29. Maybe in '28, let's say '29 to be sure. This is a plan in which we work today.
事實上,我再次強調,所有工程都已完成 90% 或 95%。所有長週期物料的採購工作已經完成。所以現在的問題是地下施工。所以計劃是在 2029 年交付該專案。或許在 2028 年,為了保險起見,就說是 2029 年吧。這是我們目前正在執行的計劃。
And again, the remobilization, no contractors are aligned, so let's do it and it's -- and I think it's really a matter of construction. Most of the procurement, everything is ready because in fact, we spent some. We were not quiet during the years. We tried to advance as much as we could, the project.
再說一遍,重新動員方面,沒有承包商達成一致,所以我們就來做吧,我認為這真的是一個建設問題。大部分採購工作已經準備就緒,因為實際上我們已經投入了一些資金。這些年來,我們並沒有保持沉默。我們盡力推進了這個專案。
On the North Sea transaction, so yes, there is -- at the end, we have we have an impact, positive impact on the production. 47.5% of the global production is more than what we have our share, around 10,000 barrel per day, I think.
關於北海交易,是的,最終,我們對產量產生了影響,而且是正面的影響。全球產量的47.5%超過了我們擁有的份額,大約是每天1萬桶,我想。
We have a positive impact on the CapEx because we have some synergies there, so we lower the CapEx by $100 million, something like that. And then we'll see what we will do together. I think clearly, there will be synergies on OpEx, that's clear. It's clear. And they are doing it today between Hitech and Repsol. So we'll bring our teams. And again, we want to optimize. It's mature. It's better to do it free together than alone.
由於我們在這方面有一些協同效應,因此對資本支出產生了積極影響,我們可以減少 1 億美元的資本支出,大概是這樣。然後我們再看看我們能一起做些什麼。我認為很明顯,營運支出方面會有綜效,這點毋庸置疑。天氣晴朗。今天,Hitech 和 Repsol 之間就正在進行這場比賽。所以我們會帶隊過來。我們再次強調,我們要進行最佳化。它很成熟。一起免費做總比獨自做好。
There is another positive impact on the deal on the abandonment cost on the CapEx side because the full idea is to have a sort of abandonment factory, I would say, in an efficient way rather than each company, and by the way, from this perspective, I'm not sure our engineers are the cheapest one on the planet to abandon wells. They are very cautious. I think that -- and there are a lot of works to be done. And to plan it, and including with the authorities, in a smarter way than if you are alone, obliged to do it. So there is also a gain from this perspective.
該交易對資本支出方面的棄井成本還有另一個正面影響,因為其整體理念是建立一個類似棄井工廠的高效棄井中心,而不是讓每家公司各自為政。順便說一句,從這個角度來看,我不確定我們的工程師是否是地球上棄井成本最低的。他們非常謹慎。我認為——而且還有很多工作要做。而且,要製定計劃,包括與相關部門合作,這會比你獨自一人被迫去做時更明智。所以從這個角度來看,也是有好處的。
Do we want to develop the same model elsewhere? No, I don't see where. I mean, I know we have that opportunity on -- honestly, all that was led as well, as you know, because of the fiscal (inaudible) hike in the UK. We were looking to that.
我們是否希望在其他地方推廣同樣的模式?不,我沒看到在哪裡。我的意思是,我知道我們有這樣的機會——老實說,這一切也是因為英國的財政(聽不清楚)成長而導致的。我們一直在關注這一點。
And the maturity of the assets, so these becomes mature and when we are looking at these assets from a pure TotalEnergies' point of view, when I looked to the business plan of Nicola's teams, I said, but we have nothing more in three or four years. So we'll have a huge organization, not much to manage, or do we make these slowdown and the abandonment cost so we realized that it was time to look to, I would say, merging with the larger groups, more efficient on the cost, again, than staying alone, which we don't have honestly that in another -- I mean, I don't see that situation at all in particular of the neighboring country if your question was about Norway.
資產的成熟度,也就是這些資產的成熟度,當我們從TotalEnergies的純粹角度看待這些資產時,當我查看Nicola團隊的商業計劃時,我說,但是我們在三四年內就沒有更多了。所以,我們將擁有一個龐大的組織,但管理起來卻沒什麼難度,或者我們會因此而放慢腳步,承擔放棄的成本,所以我們意識到是時候考慮與更大的集團合併了,這樣在成本方面效率更高,而不是繼續單打獨鬥,老實說,我們在另一個國家並沒有這樣的機會——我的意思是,如果你的問題是關於挪威的話,我完全沒有看到鄰居的情況。
Norway, not at all. It's not mature at all. It's continued to grow and to deliver cash, and it's fine. I'm happy with the Norwegian assets. So this is to answer specific questions. As you know us well, I didn't pronounce the word fiscal synergies, but there are some. The UK government knew. That's a consequence.
挪威?完全不是。這完全不成熟。它持續增長並帶來現金流,這很好。我對挪威的資產很滿意。這是為了回答具體問題。您很了解我們,我沒有提到「財政協同效應」這個詞,但確實存在一些。英國政府知情。這是後果之一。
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Hi. Henry Tarr from Berenberg. Thanks for taking my questions. Two, please. One is just on the EPH volumes, when they come into your portfolio. Are they already, pre-sold, if you like, or how are you looking to market them when they come through?
你好。來自貝倫貝格的亨利·塔。謝謝您回答我的問題。請給我兩個。一個是關於 EPH 交易量,當它們進入您的投資組合時。它們已經預售了嗎?或者說,當它們到貨時,你們打算如何進行市場推廣?
And then, the second question is just on the net CapEx guidance $15 billion, for the year. Is there -- is that a sort of an organic number? Are there acquisitions and divestments beyond what you've already sort of mentioned in terms of farm downs that we should think about in that number? Thank you.
第二個問題是關於全年淨資本支出預期 150 億美元。是否存在──這算是一種自然而然的數字嗎?除了您剛才提到的農場出售之外,還有哪些收購和出售是我們應該考慮的?謝謝。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
You speak a second question is for integrated power or globally?
您提出的第二個問題是,是針對一體化電力還是全球電力?
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Globally.
全球範圍。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Globally, I mentioned that the net between acquisition and divestment is minus 1 -- [$1 billion] more of divestments than acquisition. So the organic is at $16 billion, and the net is at $15 billion, to be clear, which is feasible. I mean, we have -- we know what we have to deliver.
我曾提到,在全球範圍內,收購和剝離之間的淨值為 -1——剝離金額比收購金額多 10 億美元。所以,有機成長額為 160 億美元,淨成長額為 150 億美元,這很明確,是可行的。我的意思是,我們知道我們必須交付什麼。
What will be the exact amount, I don't know, but we calibrate at the end. We have always a large menu of divestments if we want to reach in divestment, if you want to reach one, you need to plan two, 1.5, otherwise you can have some -- closing is always sometimes difficult, so it's better to have a large pipeline of divestments [ID] in order to reach it. So then we monitor the acquisitions related to what we anticipate on the divestment, but the divestment program is today well engaged on upstream. I see at least $1 billion, $1.5 billion, which are very clear on which it's a matter of closing the deals, including in Nigeria.
具體金額我不知道,但我們最後會進行校準。如果我們想要實現資產剝離目標,我們總是有大量的資產剝離方案可供選擇;如果你想實現一個目標,你需要計劃兩個、1.5個,否則你可以有一些——完成交易總是有時很困難,所以最好有一個龐大的資產剝離計劃[ID]以便實現目標。因此,我們會密切關注與預期剝離相關的收購,但目前剝離計劃在上游領域進展順利。我看到至少有 10 億美元、15 億美元的交易,這些交易非常明確,關鍵在於完成交易,包括在奈及利亞的交易。
And honestly, on the farm down on your side, with what we've done and capacity to follow on, we have also quite a good idea on the way to progress it.
說實話,就你們那邊的農場而言,憑藉我們已經取得的成就和後續的能力,我們也對如何推進這項工作有了相當不錯的想法。
EPH volume, pre-sold. (inaudible) but you can explain further --
EPH 音量,已預售。 (聽不清楚)但您可以進一步解釋。--
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
No, they are not pre-sold. And actually, what's going to happen is that after closing, we will offtake 50% of the production. Usually, those volume are sold on the wholesale market, so you don't have to find a customer to do that, and EPH was not telling to a third-party. It's ECGD. Then there is a normal program of hedging forward of those assets. It will move with EPH volume, but nothing different from a normal -- what a normal player would do.
不,它們沒有預售。實際上,接下來會發生的情況是,工廠關閉後,我們將收購 50% 的產量。通常情況下,這些貨物都是在批發市場上銷售的,所以你不需要為此尋找客戶,EPH 也沒有告訴第三方。這是心內膜色覺檢查(ECGD)。然後,通常會對這些資產進行遠期避險。它會隨著 EPH 音量的變化而移動,但與正常情況沒有什麼不同——就像一個普通玩家會做的那樣。
As I said, as far as the closing, we will be the one offtaking those volume and ending notably the hedge program of those volume.
正如我所說,至於收盤,我們將負責承接這些交易量,並結束這些交易量的避險計畫。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Okay. Lucas?
好的。盧卡斯?
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Thanks very much. It's Lucas Herrmann, BNP. Firstly, Patrick, I mean, every time -- or all of you every time, you don't leave us with that much scope for questions, to be honest, and congratulations on a much better year than many of -- than we ever -- many of us anticipated.
非常感謝。他是法國國家銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼。首先,派崔克,我的意思是,每次——或者說你們所有人每次——說實話,你們都不會給我們留下太多提問的空間,祝賀你們度過了比許多人——比我們許多人預期的要好得多的一年。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
You just said all what we want, so I will continue. No, and always pleased when I read the title.
你說的正是我們想聽的,所以我會繼續說下去。不,每次看到標題我都會很高興。
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
She's right. On a serious note, and probably two end-of-day questions. One thing that hasn't been mentioned at all is chemicals, and you're a big player, and I guess the question I've got in part is really thinking about what the scope or upside maybe of the chemical cycle were to normalize at a point. Together with your thoughts on when that normalizes, if that -- if we're seeing any signs that we may be moving to a point where players are saying, okay, it's just enough pain, we've got to start shutting in because this can't go on at this level forever.
她說得對。說正經的,還有兩個可能在一天結束前需要回答的問題。完全沒有提到化學品,而你又是這方面的重要人物,我想問的問題之一是,化學品循環在某個階段正常化後,其範圍或潛在好處是什麼。以及你對這種情況何時恢復正常的看法,如果——如果我們看到任何跡象表明我們可能正在走向這樣一個階段,即球員們說,好吧,痛苦已經夠多了,我們必須開始封閉自己,因為這種情況不能永遠持續下去。
And the second, before you answer that, thanks very much. Maybe towards Stephane, it's just on LNG. In terms of contracting and building the portfolio now, you've pretty much achieved the $8 million to $10 million of [length] that you wanted in Brent. Are we broadly done in you fixing contracts? I know that's a silly observation because it's an ongoing process, but just are you comfortable with where you're at?
第二個問題,在你回答之前,非常感謝。或許往史蒂芬那邊去,就靠液化天然氣了。就目前的合約簽訂和投資組合構建而言,你已經基本實現了你想要的布倫特原油合約價值 800 萬至 1000 萬美元的目標。我們是否基本上完成了你那邊的合約修復工作?我知道這是一個很愚蠢的問題,因為這是一個持續的過程,但你對目前的狀態滿意嗎?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Thank you. Stephane will answer you. Just for all of you, we plan to propose to you to make a visit of Rio Grande during the CERAWeek like we've done last year for half a day and to dedicate this half day to LNG because I know you have many questions. So if some of you will be there, we will embark you, if you accept, with us from Houston, ensuring the transportation. But the idea is to dedicate, I would say, like we've done last year on renewables and power to dedicate this half day to LNG.
謝謝。史蒂芬會回答你。為了滿足大家的需求,我們計劃在 CERAWeek 期間,像去年一樣,安排半天時間參觀裡奧格蘭德,並將這半天時間專門用於液化天然氣 (LNG) 的討論,因為我知道大家有很多疑問。所以,如果你們當中有人會到場,如果你們接受,我們將安排你們從休士頓出發,並確保交通安全。但我們的想法是,就像我們去年專注於再生能源和電力一樣,將這半天的時間專門用於液化天然氣。
So Stephane will have plenty of time to explain to you everything about our portfolio, but I think it's time we have many questions to try to have a specific point. But Stephane will answer you.
所以 Stephane 會有足夠的時間向你們解釋我們投資組合的方方面面,但我認為現在是時候提出很多問題,以便我們能有一個具體的目標了。但史蒂芬會回答你的。
It's not just to -- on the first one, chemicals. Chemicals, on our side, when we speak about chemicals, we are mainly -- we are big volumes, but we are not a real chemical company. We are just a polymer plus one cracker plus one. We make the big polyethylene and polypropylene, so we don't have the whole story behind it.
不僅僅是——第一個是化學物質。就我們而言,說到化學品,我們主要是——我們產量很大,但我們不是真正的化學公司。我們只是一個聚合物加一個裂解機加一個。我們生產大量的聚乙烯和聚丙烯,所以我們並不了解背後的全部情況。
It's clear that today, it's facing large overcapacities coming from China. Everybody knows it. Which puts, in particular, our platform in Korea, which was one of the best five years ago, today, is facing huge difficulties because the natural market of Korean platforms were exported to China. And of course, this is closed doors today, which is a topic, by the way as well for all these US crackers, which are built with the idea not for the domestic market. We are built with the idea we'll export to China.
很明顯,目前它正面臨來自中國的大量產能過剩。人人都知道。這使得我們在韓國的平台,尤其是在五年前曾是最好的平台之一,如今卻面臨著巨大的困難,因為韓國平台的天然市場已經轉移到了中國。當然,今天這是個閉門會議,順便說一句,這也是所有這些美國破解者的一個話題,他們的設計初衷並非面向國內市場。我們的設計理念就是為了出口到中國。
I don't know why everybody's made the same mistake. Nobody's has seen or understood, but the Chinese, and it's a real problem for me because suddenly, we did -- last year, we discovered that the Chinese have built so many capacities that they to be almost self-suppliers. In fact, to be a self -- their own autonomy and themselves, by the way, because I think you have an issue of the domestic demand in China. All these civil real estate, all that is going down so they face themselves over capacity for their own market. So you have a situation which is not good.
我不明白為什麼大家都犯了同樣的錯誤。除了中國人之外,沒有人看到或理解這一點,這對我來說是個真正的問題,因為突然之間——去年,我們發現中國人已經建立瞭如此多的產能,以至於他們幾乎可以自給自足。事實上,要成為自我——他們自身的自主性和自我,順便說一句,因為我認為中國存在國內需求問題。所有這些民用房地產,所有這些都在下降,導致它們面臨自身市場產能過剩的問題。所以你現在的情況不太好。
Having said that, I see in our portfolio two types of petrochemicals, to be clear, have been constant. I have the one in Europe based on NAFTA. This one you can take it wherever you want. You can be the best. It will never be competitive against petrochemicals, [polyethylene] done on ethane either in the US or in the Middle East.
話雖如此,但需要明確的是,我認為我們投資組合中的兩種石化產品一直保持不變。我有一個基於北美自由貿易協定的歐洲版本。這款你可以隨身攜帶。你可以成為最棒的。它永遠無法與石油化學產品(聚乙烯)競爭,無論是在美國還是在中東,聚乙烯都是用乙烷生產的。
The gap of competitiveness, it's impossible to close. So this one, it's a matter of managing the pain, I would say. So either you have some crackers, but you know we have decided this year to shut down a cracker in Antwerp. Others have decided to shut down a cracker in Normandy, not ours, but next to us, which is good news for us. It's really a matter of -- so today we are left in terms of crackers with Antwerp and with Normandy. We have the small one in Feyzin, but it's very small and which has a dedicated, I would say, market.
競爭力差距是無法彌補的。所以,我認為,這個問題的關鍵在於如何控制疼痛。所以要么你有一些餅乾,但你知道我們今年決定關閉安特衛普的一個餅乾工廠。其他人決定關閉諾曼第的一台爆破裝置,不是我們的,而是在我們隔壁的,這對我們來說是個好消息。實際上,問題在於——所以今天,就餅乾而言,我們只剩下安特衛普和諾曼第了。我們在費津有一家小店,但是規模很小,而且有一個專門的市場。
But we left Lavéra (inaudible). We shut down the crackers. So I'm quite happy to exit step by step, to be honest, and it's really a problem. Company is big. When you have integration of the cracker to the refinery, you can see some ways to manage it, but in terms of polymers, lose money on the polymers.
但我們離開了拉維拉(聽不清楚)我們關閉了爆破裝置。說實話,我很樂意一步一步退出,但這確實是個問題。公司規模很大。當裂解裝置與煉油廠整合後,可以看到一些管理方法,但就聚合物而言,聚合物會造成虧損。
I'm looking to the global pictures because if I'm running my crackers, I need to have an outlet for the crackers, and nobody will take my ethylene today in Europe. So I need to transform my ethylene to bring it to customers in order to capture the margin of the cracker. If you don't see it as an integration, then you are going to ask if you just have a polymer business, why do you continue? We have a business unit of polymer, and Vincent tried to convince me to merge it with a cracker. I said, no, I want to know the business, otherwise we will not know where exactly we'll make the losses, but I want to know what we can fix and what are the pains. But that's the situation.
我正在關注全球局勢,因為如果我要運行裂解裝置,我就需要為裂解裝置找到出口,而目前在歐洲沒有人會接收我的乙烯。所以我需要轉化我的乙烯,提供給客戶,以便獲取裂解裝置的利潤。如果你不認為這是一個整合過程,那麼你就會問,如果你只是經營一家聚合物企業,為什麼還要繼續下去?我們有一個聚合物業務部門,Vincent 試圖說服我將其與裂解廠合併。我說,不,我想了解業務,否則我們就不知道究竟在哪裡會虧損,但我想知道我們可以解決哪些問題,痛點在哪裡。但事實就是如此。
Then we have the other petrochemicals based on ethane, either in the US or in in Saudi Arabia or Qatar. This one, honestly, is competitive because we have an advantage on the feed stock. So this advantage on the feed stock absorbs, I would say. Even if you lose again on your polymer, the absorption is even easier to be done. So when I see on this integration between the crackers on ethane and the polymers, I would say it's okay. We are okay.
然後我們還有其他以乙烷為基礎的石化產品,這些產品要么產自美國,要么產自沙烏地阿拉伯或卡達。說實話,這場競爭很有競爭力,因為我們在原料上有優勢。所以,我認為,這種原料吸收的優點是存在的。即使你的聚合物再次失敗,吸收過程也更容易。所以當我看到乙烷裂解裝置與聚合物之間的這種整合時,我會說沒問題。我們沒事。
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
(inaudible - microphone inaccessible)
(聽不清楚 - 麥克風無法使用)
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Yeah, it makes money. It makes money. It makes money. Money, profit, and cash. It means profit and cash. Otherwise, I would not tell you that, Lucas. I would say you -- it's a disaster. We need to fix it.
是的,它能賺錢。它能賺錢。它能賺錢。金錢、利潤和現金。這意味著利潤和現金。否則,我就不會告訴你這些了,盧卡斯。我覺得你——這簡直是一場災難。我們需要解決這個問題。
We are not yet I'm not in a panic mode, to be clear. I'm sure that we will have to take. The question for us is the European part. Is there a way or not? And that's true. That's why, of course. Not very happy when Stephane says, I want a high price of CO2. For him, it's just what can we preserve from this business?
我們現在還沒到那種程度,我還沒到恐慌的地步,說清楚點。我相信我們必須採取。對我們來說,問題在於歐洲部分。有沒有辦法?沒錯。當然,這就是原因。史蒂芬說“我希望二氧化碳價格高昂”,這讓我很不高興。對他來說,問題在於我們能從這個產業中保留些什麼?
So on my side, what I think is that no way to invest in any capacity on NAFTA crackers, and all that is a question of how do we go down, surely. But it's not easy because I think other players have the same view on us. Even if some players like, INEOS, (inaudible) or Lavéra cracker because they had an overview on the market. Fine, I mean, I'm fine. I mean, if we find some time to time good opportunities, I'm ready to do it.
所以就我而言,我認為無論如何都不應該對北美自由貿易協定相關企業進行任何投資,而所有這些問題都取決於我們如何走向衰落,這當然是肯定的。但這並不容易,因為我認為其他球員對我們也有同樣的看法。即使有些玩家像INEOS、(聽不清楚)或Lavéra cracker,因為他們對市場有全面的了解。我沒事,真的。我的意思是,如果偶爾能遇到一些好機會,我願意去做。
We have a third polymer, which is polystyrene on which we'd like to, in particular in the US, we try to -- we will put it for divestment, this one. So that's the way I'm looking at it. It's ethane, so it's Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the US, but even the US, I think we have one. I'm not sure we are ready to make another one. We'll be cautious on it.
我們還有第三種聚合物,即聚苯乙烯,我們希望,尤其是在美國,我們嘗試——我們將撤資這種聚合物。這就是我的看法。它是乙烷,所以卡達、沙烏地阿拉伯、美國都有,但即使是美國,我想我們也有一個。我不確定我們是否準備好再做一次。我們會謹慎對待此事。
You have to absorb these over capacities. It could take time. But again, I'm not -- as a chemical company, I don't see all what is happening behind in the value chain.
你必須消化這些過剩產能。這可能需要一些時間。但是,我並不是──作為一家化工企業,我看不到價值鏈背後發生的一切。
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Stephane?
史蒂芬?
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Yes, as you mentioned, Lucas, we sold around more than $8 million between '23 beginning '25 on the Brent basis in Asia. So we are happy with what we have done, and I consider that the portfolio is well balanced until 2030.
是的,正如你所提到的,盧卡斯,我們在 2023 年至 2025 年初期間,以布蘭特原油價格在亞洲售出了價值超過 800 萬美元的原油。因此,我們對我們所做的工作感到滿意,我認為到 2030 年,投資組合將保持良好的平衡。
After that, it's an ever-going job because you've got contracts that expire. You have additional production that will come from LNG growth, so we have to work on the portfolio post 2030. We've got time to do so, and I'm not too concerned by that. But you should expect additional seller of (inaudible) formula on that time horizon.
之後,這份工作就一直沒完沒了,因為你的合約會到期。隨著液化天然氣 (LNG) 的成長,我們將有額外的產量,因此我們必須著手規劃 2030 年以後的投資組合。我們有時間去做這件事,我並不太擔心。但你應該會預期在那段時間會有更多(聽不清楚)配方產品的賣家。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Maybe we can take a question online.
或許我們可以在線上提問。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
I will reveal a secret to you. The net result of chemicals in '25, net result was $500 million positive, globally. It's only a small share of the net results of refining in chemicals, but it's positive globally. It's not too bad compared to what I listen when I'm reading the newspapers. It's not too bad.
我將告訴你一個秘密。2025 年化學品業的淨收益為 5 億美元,全球。雖然這只佔化工產業精煉淨收益的一小部分,但從全球範圍來看,這是正面的。跟我讀報紙時聽到的比起來,這還不錯。還不錯。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Okay, Doug, you can go ahead with your question, if you're there.
好的,道格,如果你在的話,你可以繼續問問題了。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Sorry.
對不起。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
We lost Doug.
我們失去了道格。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
He preferred to be with a competitor in New York. That's a problem, you know.
他寧願和紐約的競爭對手待在一起。你知道,那是個問題。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Okay. Question in the room then. So, Anish, go ahead.
好的。那麼,房間裡有人會問這個問題。那麼,阿尼什,請開始。
Anish Kapadia - Analyst
Anish Kapadia - Analyst
Hi. It's Anish Kapadia from Palissy Advisors. I had a question on the outlook for global gas. Clearly, some of the strategic moves you've made over the last few years are on the back of your view that there's going to be somewhat of a narrowing of global gas prices and Henry Hub.
你好。我是來自 Palissy Advisors 的 Anish Kapadia。我有一個關於全球天然氣前景的問題。顯然,您在過去幾年中採取的一些策略性舉措,是基於您認為全球天然氣價格和亨利樞紐價格將會有所收窄的觀點。
So I just wanted to kind of get your viewpoint. If gas prices do fall further from here, you're below your 10 TTF assumption. What are some of the measures you've put in place? And how can the integrated power business such as the acquisition you made in Europe help to mitigate some of the fall in TTF pricing?
所以我想聽聽你的看法。如果汽油價格從目前水準進一步下跌,你的預期收益將低於 10 TTF 的假設值。你們採取了哪些措施?那麼,像您在歐洲進行的收購這樣的綜合電力業務,如何能夠幫助緩解 TTF 價格下跌的影響?
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Stephane Michel - President - Gas, Renewables and Power, Member of the Executive Committee
Well, as I explained, we have tried to balance the portfolio so that we are selling our guests more on the Brent formula than spot. So to that extent, we are not that exposed to decreasing on the TTF or GKM gas price. That's one.
正如我解釋的那樣,我們努力平衡投資組合,以便我們向客人推銷的更多是布倫特原油期貨價格,而不是現貨價格。因此,從這個程度上來說,我們並不太容易受到TTF或GKM天然氣價格下跌的影響。這是其中之一。
Second, it's clear that with gas price, you will have to effect -- one is that you are going to find back Asian demand that would limit that trend, and second, you are going to improve the competitiveness of gas in Europe for power production. And so we should have a kind of parachute effect, thanks to our CCGT fleet and should be able to benefit from that move on -- thanks to the full integration in Europe with the -- along the value chain between gas and power that actually we have mitigated that possible decrease of the gas price.
其次,很明顯,天然氣價格將會產生影響——一是亞洲需求回升將限制這一趨勢,二是提高天然氣在歐洲發電領域的競爭力。因此,由於我們的燃氣渦輪機聯合循環機組,我們應該能夠產生一種降落傘效應,並且能夠從這一發展中受益——由於在歐洲與天然氣和電力價值鏈的完全整合,實際上我們已經緩解了天然氣價格可能下降的情況。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Okay, other questions in the room. Jean-Luc?
好的,還有其他問題嗎?讓-呂克?
Jean-Luc Romain - Analyst
Jean-Luc Romain - Analyst
Jean-Luc Romain at CIC Market Solutions. I had a question on the new exploration acreage you just took in Namibia. It's a different basin, probably a higher risk and less explored. How do you compare the potential of your geologists compare the potential of the Lüderitz Basin with the Orange Basin?
Jean-Luc Romain,CIC Market Solutions。我有一個關於您最近在納米比亞獲得的勘探區域的問題。這是一個不同的盆地,風險可能更高,勘探程度也更低。您如何比較呂德里茨盆地和奧蘭治盆地的地質潛力?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
I mean, again, it's Orange Basin. It's out of the Orange Basin. So this Lüderitz Basin, basically, it's an exploration. It has been positive. We find hydrocarbons in the Orange Basin, so the idea is we should not stop, I guess, more probability of success is lower, obviously. We had the opportunity to enter that license. The explorers love it, but not only the ones from TotalEnergies, the ones of Petrobras as well, because in fact, we joined forces. In fact, we are competing, so we decided it was better. That's why I like competition up to a point.
我的意思是,再說一遍,這裡是奧蘭治盆地。它位於橙盆地之外。所以,這個呂德里茨盆地,基本上就是一個勘探區。結果是正面的。我們在奧蘭治盆地發現了碳氫化合物,所以我們的想法是不應該停止,我想,成功的機率越低,這很正常。我們有機會獲得該許可證。探險家們都很喜歡它,不僅是道達爾能源公司的探險家,巴西石油公司的探險家們也很喜歡,因為事實上,我們已經聯手合作了。事實上,我們是競爭對手,所以我們認為這樣做更好。這就是為什麼我喜歡適度的競爭。
Sometimes it's good to partner together in order to have access to the license. I think that both teams of explorers, geologists have seen the same potential, I would say. So it's good to make seismic and then potentially to drill. We'll see. But again, I think there is a certain logic, and I think the fact that we -- again, that we are establishing a strong presence in Namibia encourage our teams to look to other license which might be available.
有時候,為了獲得許可證,合作是件好事。我認為,兩支探險隊和地質學家都看到了同樣的潛力。所以,先進行地震勘探,然後再考慮鑽探是明智之舉。我們拭目以待。但我認為其中存在一定的邏輯,而且我認為,我們——再次強調,我們正在納米比亞建立強大的影響力,這會鼓勵我們的團隊去尋找其他可能可用的許可證。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Okay. Other questions? Yes, Maurizio?
好的。還有其他問題嗎?是的,毛里齊奧?
Maurizio Carulli - Analyst
Maurizio Carulli - Analyst
Maurizio Carulli from Quilter Cheviot Investment Management. (inaudible), congratulations for the good results. I have a question about the electricity, business, including renewables, of course. You have been able to grow it very well and with a better profitability of most of the traditional utilities companies. And the question that I have, yeah, as long as you can continue to have good opportunities for expansion, good profitability, good return on capital, and good free cash flow, do you have a strategic cap for the expansion of your electricity business long term?
來自 Quilter Cheviot 投資管理公司的 Maurizio Carulli(聽不清楚),恭喜你們取得好成績。我有一個關於電力、商業,當然也包括再生能源的問題。你們已經成功地將其發展壯大,並且比大多數傳統公用事業公司獲得了更高的盈利能力。我的問題是,只要你能繼續擁有良好的擴張機會、良好的盈利能力、良好的資本回報率和良好的自由現金流,那麼你的電力業務的長期擴張是否存在戰略上限?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
No, it's a question which will be a debate at the Board. Exactly the question next strategic seminar because now we are, in fact, after the five years, we have more conviction about the model.
不,這個問題將在董事會上進行辯論。這正是下次戰略研討會要討論的問題,因為五年過去了,我們現在對這個模式更有信心了。
So in 2020, we said let's engage for 10 years, otherwise, we will never manage. If we don't keep a horizon, I said to the Board, either you give us 10 years to do it, or it's better not to engage because this type of business will make obviously diversification. We can make some mistakes, but we need to see if we establish a business.
所以在 2020 年,我們說讓我們投入 10 年的時間,否則我們永遠無法成功。我對董事會說,如果我們不設定遠大目標,要嘛你們給我們 10 年時間去做,要嘛最好不要涉足,因為這類業務顯然會導致多元化。我們可以犯一些錯誤,但我們需要看看能否建立起一家企業。
No, we are more confident. And the last strategic seminar when we were reviewing integrated mobile, it was more about how to increase the profitability. Let's demonstrate the question of Iran. Why do you do that, et cetera? Now we have a better idea.
不,我們更有信心。上次策略研討會上,我們回顧了整合行動技術,重點在於如何提高獲利能力。讓我們以伊朗問題為例來說明。為什麼要這樣做,等等?現在我們有了更好的主意。
So then I said, well, it's time to discuss between us where do we go beyond 2030, how much would we want to grow this business or not. So this is, I would say -- and I know that I have a good question from you. Of course, it's linked as well to the capacity we'll have to see the value of this business within the global company, I would say. And as it was said by one or two of you very well by Iran, I think there is a turning point when it's becoming free cash positive because then your perspective will be different.
所以我就說,好吧,是時候讓我們討論一下2030年以後的發展方向了,我們是否希望將這項業務發展到什麼程度。所以,我想說的是──我知道你們一定想問我一個好問題。當然,我認為這也與我們能否在全球公司內部看到這項業務的價值有關。正如你們中的一兩位很好地談到伊朗時所說,我認為當自由現金流變為正值時,就會出現一個轉折點,因為到那時你的觀點就會有所不同。
As long as it's a sort of cash sink, why do they do that? If you begin to deliver cash, and we think that even if it's positive by 206, we could go quickly to $1 billion to $1 billion to 3 billion per year, then the appetite might see, I see also, to be honest, it's more and more a strong integration between the gas and the power. And I think to answer to any part of the question is also the integration gas to power is a way to if you have a lower gas price, you could recover part of the value along the chain on the electricity part. So I see some value.
只要它能消耗資金,他們為什麼要這麼做呢?如果你開始交付現金,我們認為即使到 2006 年才實現正收益,我們也能迅速達到每年 10 億至 30 億美元,那麼市場需求可能會出現,說實話,我也看到天然氣和電力之間的融合越來越緊密。我認為,要回答這個問題,天然氣發電的整合也是一個方法,如果天然氣價格較低,就可以在電力環節收回部分價值。所以我覺得它有一定的價值。
And I think by the way, my view is that the market clearly has better reacted to the EPH transaction because it was gas to power and not just renewables. So I'm opened my eyes. I'm clear, which by the way, is helping us to discuss the Board these elements are very important. It's important. So the Board is more and more looking to that in a way, and I will be probably more able to answer your question in one year than today.
順便說一句,我認為市場對EPH交易的反應明顯更好,因為它涉及的是天然氣發電,而不僅僅是再生能源。我終於睜開了雙眼。我很清楚,順便說一句,這有助於我們討論董事會的這些要素,這些要素非常重要。這很重要。所以董事會越來越關注這一點,我可能一年後才能更好地回答你的問題。
But as we are clear that we want to reach a sort of size of 20%, what do we do beyond at which pace, that's a debate. The opportunities might continue to come, in fact, in this business and I think there will be a time the debates we have in European countries about the budget. I'm advocating in France today to stop to have all these CFDs which are giving -- it's incredible what happens today in 2025. The states are taking the market risk. You secure revenues for developers, so it's a very strange system.
但我們已經明確地希望達到 20% 的規模,那麼之後我們該如何發展,以何種速度發展,這是一個值得探討的問題。事實上,這個產業可能會繼續出現機會,我認為,未來歐洲各國關於預算的辯論還會持續下去。今天我在法國呼籲停止所有這些差價合約交易,這些交易正在帶來——難以置信的是,2025 年竟然發生了這樣的事情。各州正在承擔市場風險。你為開發者提供了收入保障,所以這是一個非常奇怪的系統。
Why the states should take the market risk of power, the value of power, and not the developers and the investors in the US? We are taking the market risk. We have some fiscal incentives, but fundamentally, it's very different as a philosophy and regime. So these technologies are mature enough today, at least for onshore solar and field to go to something else.
為什麼電力市場的風險和價值應該由各州承擔,而不是由美國的開發商和投資者承擔?我們承擔市場風險。我們有一些財政激勵措施,但從根本上來說,無論從理念或機構來說,它都非常不同。因此,這些技術如今已經足夠成熟,至少對於陸上太陽能發電和電場來說,可以轉向其他方向了。
And then if this type of evolution happens, you will see the competition will not be the same. Because then you will see larger players will find back an advantage compared to plenty of smaller players, which today, in fact, are in infrastructure business with no risk, which honestly I don't think the European governments will be able for long to continue to finance a zero risk business and which is, of course, the return is not very high because there is -- it cannot be so. Again, this is a debate where I'm not able, but this will come now. It's time to have it and the Board, they had their independent session. It was the main topic, so now we'll work for them.
如果這種演變發生,你會發現競爭格局將會截然不同。因為那樣一來,你就會發現,與許多小型企業相比,大型企業將重新獲得優勢。事實上,如今的小型企業從事基礎設施業務沒有任何風險,老實說,我認為歐洲各國政府不可能長期繼續為零風險業務提供資金,而且,這種業務的回報當然也不高,因為——它不可能如此。再次聲明,這是我無法參與的辯論,但接下來我會談到這一點。是時候進行表決了,董事會已經召開了獨立會議。這是主要議題,所以現在我們要為他們工作。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Okay, so we have a technical problem, but I will take the question from Duke.
好的,我們遇到了一個技術問題,但我會回答杜克提出的問題。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
I want Duke to be satisfied. So he sent me an email, but our technology does it work. No AI Total (multiple speakers)
我希望杜克滿意。所以他給我發了一封郵件,但是我們的技術確實有效。無人工智慧總計(多位發言者)
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
The first one is on Namibia. You are carrying Galp, but do you receive Galp's share of [cost oil]? This is the first one.
第一篇是關於納米比亞的。你攜帶了 Galp,但你能收到 Galp 應得的那份嗎?石油成本?這是第一個。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Of course. Otherwise, I don't do it.
當然。否則,我就不會去做。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
The second one is what is the current dividend breakeven post the EPH deal and after the deal is closed?
第二個問題是,在EPH交易完成後,目前的股利損益平衡點是多少?
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Dividend breakeven, but it's quite easy. $3 billion represents $10, so it's $50 per barrel. It's $50 per barrel. That's the dividend break even.
股息收支平衡,但這很容易。 30億美元相當於10美元,也就是每桶50美元。每桶50美元。這就是股息損益平衡點。
Post EPH, EPH will not change dramatically everything, so it will be $1 billion. So it's $1 billion is $3 to $3 so it's $48 or something like that, $48 to $47 per barrel. [Cost oil] share, of course, we take 50% of (inaudible). In fact, we more or less -- we had a scheme in Suriname, which one -- this one, to be honest, is a little better for us. But no, it's yes, we take the [cost oil] share, it's clear.
EPH 之後,EPH 不會徹底改變一切,所以它將是 10 億美元。所以10億美元就是3美元,也就是每桶48美元左右,或差不多是48到47美元。 [成本油]份額,當然,我們拿50%。(聽不清楚)事實上,我們或多或少——我們在蘇利南有一個方案,說實話,這個方案對我們來說稍微好一點。但答案是肯定的,我們會承擔(成本油價)份額,這一點很清楚。
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Unidentified Company Repressentative
Okay, do we have questions in the room? No more questions in the room.
好的,請問各位有什麼問題嗎?房間裡不再有任何問題。
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
Patrick Pouyanne - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of the Executive Committee
So if you are satisfied, thank you for your attendance. Thank you for your comments, and thank you to all the teams of TotalEnergies who have delivered these results, including, of course, the different executives present in the room. And so the next meeting with you potentially might be in Houston for the ones who want to participate to this field trip on Rio Grande and again with a focus on energy and the portfolio and how we manage all these times which are in front of us.
如果您滿意,感謝您的出席。感謝您的評論,也感謝 TotalEnergies 的所有團隊為取得這些成果所做的貢獻,當然也包括到場的各位主管。因此,下次與您會面的時間可能會在休士頓,屆時將邀請那些想要參加格蘭德河實地考察的人,並再次重點討論能源、投資組合以及我們如何應對擺在我們面前的所有這些挑戰。
Thank you for your attendance.
謝謝各位的出席。