TotalEnergies SE (TTE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to TotalEnergies' third-quarter 2025 results conference call.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加道達爾能源2025年第三季業績電話會議。

I now hand over to Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO; and Jean-Pierre Sbraire, CFO, who will lead you through this call. Sir, please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給董事長兼執行長 Patrick Pouyanné 和財務長 Jean-Pierre Sbraire，他們將帶領大家完成本次電話會議。先生，請繼續。

Good afternoon. Good morning, everyone. Before Jean-Pierre goes through the details of the third-quarter results, I would like to make a few opening comments.

午安.各位早安。在 Jean-Pierre 詳細介紹第三季業績之前，我想先做幾點開場白。

Almost exactly one month ago, we updated you of our strategy during our Capital Markets Day in New York, and we had four key messages: consistency and resilience of our two-pillar strategy, strong and secure production growth in our oil and gas business, accretive cash flow generation, and capital discipline. I believe that this company's strong third-quarter results -- that again, Jean-Pierre will detail with you -- perfectly illustrates these key catalysts and highlights the value proposition of our consistent and profitable growth model.

大約一個月前，我們在紐約舉行的資本市場日上向大家介紹了我們的策略，我們傳達了四個關鍵訊息：我們雙支柱策略的一致性和韌性、石油和天然氣業務強勁而穩定的產量成長、增加現金流以及資本紀律。我相信，該公司強勁的第三季業績——Jean-Pierre 將會向你們詳細介紹——完美地說明了這些關鍵催化劑，並突顯了我們持續獲利成長模式的價值主張。

Strategy is clearly in motion and is translating into more cash flow, even in a more challenging environment. Indeed, despite oil pricing dropping by more than $10 per barrel year on year, the cash flow for the third quarter increased by 4%, and adjusted net income for the third quarter held steadily. Why? Primarily for two reasons. First, the hydrocarbon production growth is a reality and is highly accretive.

策略顯然正在實施，即使在更具挑戰性的環境下，也正在轉化為更多的現金流。事實上，儘管石油價格年減超過每桶 10 美元，但第三季的現金流成長了 4%，第三季的調整後淨收入也保持穩定。為什麼？主要有兩個原因。首先，油氣產量成長是現實的，而且具有很高的增值作用。

The new project barrels coming online, such as Mero Fields in Brazil, deepwater project in the US offshore going for oil, Tyra and Fenix for gas, have an average cash flow margin which is roughly twice higher than the base portfolio. And they have contributed 170,000 barrels per day during the first nine months of 2025 compared to 2024. These new barrels have generated around $400 million of additional cash flow year on year, growth volume around $200 million, and higher margin another $200 million. And so they have contributed to absorb the equivalent of $6 per barrel of decrease in the Brent in terms of cash flow.

即將投產的新項目油田，例如巴西的 Mero 油田、美國近海深水石油項目、Tyra 和 Fenix 天然氣項目，其平均現金流利潤率約為基礎投資組合的兩倍。與 2024 年相比，2025 年前九個月，他們的每日產量增加了 17 萬桶。這些新桶每年產生約 4 億美元的額外現金流，產量增加約 2 億美元，更高的利潤率又增加了 2 億美元。因此，它們幫助吸收了布蘭特原油每桶下跌 6 美元的現金流。

So that's, I think, a strong demonstration that our disciplined investment framework that includes strict sanctioning criteria, less than $20 per barrel technical cost or $30 per barrel breakeven for E&P, projects is delivering its fruits. And we expect, of course, that this cash flow tailoring from new high-margin barrels will continue as we work our way through our deep project queue.

因此，我認為這有力地證明了我們嚴謹的投資框架（包括嚴格的製裁標準，勘探開發項目的技術成本低於每桶 20 美元或盈虧平衡點低於每桶 30 美元）正在取得成效。當然，我們預計隨著我們逐步推進眾多項目，這種來自高利潤新油桶的現金流調整將會持續下去。

As a reminder, starting from '25, continuing in '26, the company is growing upstream production by 3% per year for 2030. And what is the differentiation factor that stands out of our business model? It's clearly that more than 95% of this production by 2030 is already either online or under construction and largely under lump sum EPC contracts, which significantly reduce the cost. So projects are in hand and we are executing them. And again, this year and this last quarter demonstrate that we are well in the delivery mode. Some people think we are boring, but we are boring for the good. Cash is growing.

提醒大家，從 2025 年開始，到 2026 年，公司上游產量將以每年 3% 的速度成長，直到 2030 年。那麼，我們商業模式的突顯差異化因素是什麼？顯然，到 2030 年，超過 95% 的此類產品已經投入生產或正在建設中，並且大多採用總價 EPC 合同，這大大降低了成本。項目已經提上日程，我們正在執行中。今年和上個季度再次證明，我們已經很好地進入了交付模式。有些人覺得我們很無聊，但我們無聊是有原因的。現金流正在成長。

The second pillar of these good results have been the recovery of the downstream, which contributed to the company's resiliency, with cash flow up by almost $500 million. It is true that the refining models here were better, but it's also true that we managed to capture them, thanks to a good availability of our assets.

這些良好業績的第二個支柱是下游業務的復甦，這增強了公司的韌性，現金流增加了近 5 億美元。誠然，這裡的精煉模型更好，但我們之所以能夠獲得它們，也是因為我們擁有充足的資源。

And in particular, there were several turnarounds in the quarter, but they were executed in time, in schedule, and in budget, and it allows us to reach our objective. And of course, Marketing & Services continue to deliver consistent results and demonstrate that the priority given to value over volume in this segment is the right approach.

尤其值得一提的是，本季出現了一些轉機，但這些轉機都按時、按計劃、按預算完成，這使我們能夠實現目標。當然，行銷和服務部門也持續取得穩定的業績，證明該部門優先考慮價值而非數量的做法是正確的。

In addition to highlighting the strength of a consistent strategy, this third quarter demonstrates as well that we are delivering in the short term, specifically on the second-half 2025 plan that we laid out during the July earnings call, which included four key elements: again, the accretive production growth, giving more cash flows; the downward inflections in our net investments, coming back to the capital discipline, which decreased by $3.5 billion quarter over quarter; the reversal of the seasonal working capital, as we have released this quarter of $1.3 billion; and lastly, of course, all these elements improve the gearing, which is now close to 17% compared to next to 18%. So the end result is that during the third quarter, at $69 per barrel, the company generated excess free cash flow, with cash flow including working capital variation more than covering net investment, plus $4.5 billion of shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buyback.

除了凸顯我們一貫策略的優勢外，第三季也顯示我們在短期內取得了成效，尤其是在我們7月份財報電話會議上提出的2025年下半年計畫方面，該計畫包含四個關鍵要素：再次強調，增值生產成長帶來了更多現金流；淨投資的下降趨勢，回歸資本紀律，環比減少了35億美元；季節性營運資本的逆轉，我們在本季度釋放了13億美元；最後，當然，所有這些要素都改善了槓桿率，目前接近17%，而之前接近18%。因此，最終結果是，在第三季度，油價為每桶 69 美元時，該公司產生了超額自由現金流，包括營運資本變動在內的現金流足以覆蓋淨投資，此外還以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 45 億美元。

It's leading me to shareholder returns. The company, of course, continues its strong track record of dividend growth. The Board of Directors decided to increase the third interim dividend of close to 8% in euro and more than 10% in dollars compared to 2024. On the buyback side, as announced on September '24, the Board of Directors authorized up to $1.5 billion of share buyback for the fourth quarter 2025. And therefore, assuming annual cash flow between $27.5 billion and $28 billion, in particular supported by the better Refining margin that we observe currently, the 2025 payout ratio is expected to remain around 56%.

它正引領我走向股東回報。當然，該公司繼續保持著強勁的股息成長記錄。董事會決定將第三次中期股息較 2024 年提高近 8%（以歐元計）或 10% 以上（以美元計）。在股票回購方面，正如 2024 年 9 月宣布的那樣，董事會批准在 2025 年第四季回購高達 15 億美元的股票。因此，假設每年現金流在 275 億美元至 280 億美元之間，特別是得益於我們目前觀察到的煉油利潤率的提高，預計 2025 年的派息率將保持在 56% 左右。

Looking forward, we expect to maintain a strong momentum for the fourth quarter. Upstream production is anticipated to grow more than 4% year on year, like this quarter. The net investments are expected to decrease quarter over quarter, in particular because we will deliver the disposal proceeds, $2 billion expected. And at the end, the net of acquisition will represent $1.5 billion of cash inflow in the balance sheet. And that, with another anticipated positive contribution from the seasonal working capital, we anticipate to continue to strengthen the balance sheet, with gearing forecasted to further decline to 15%, 16% at year-end.

展望未來，我們預計第四季將保持強勁的成長動能。預計上游產量將像本季一樣，年增超過 4%。預計淨投資將逐季減少，特別是因為我們將交付處置所得款項，預計為 20 億美元。最終，收購淨額將為資產負債表帶來 15 億美元的現金流入。加上季節性營運資金預計帶來的正面貢獻，我們預計將繼續加強資產負債表，槓桿率預計將進一步下降至 15%，年底為 16%。

Last, but not least, we have -- the Board of Directors has approved the roadmap to transform our ADRs into ordinary shares. And we are happy to announce that we ordered, today, JPMorgan to launch the termination process of the ADR program, with the objective that ordinary shares are expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange from December 8.

最後，也是非常重要的一點，董事會已批准將我們的美國存託憑證轉換為普通股的路線圖。我們很高興地宣布，我們今天已命令摩根大通啟動 ADR 計畫的終止程序，目標是普通股預計將於 12 月 8 日起在紐約證券交易所開始交易。

This is, of course, an important milestone for the company, as it will allow for a single class of TotalEnergies shares to trade with extended hours. It will be essentially a continuous listing from Paris 9:00 AM to New York 4:00 PM, 10:00 PM Paris time. And we hope that this ordinary shares listing will be a clear catalyst for the stock in 2026 in both Paris and New York markets and, in turn, to market these ordinary shares on the US market even more actively than today.

當然，這對公司來說是一個重要的里程碑，因為它將允許 TotalEnergies 的單一類別股票在延長交易時間內進行交易。節目將從巴黎時間上午 9:00 持續播出至紐約時間下午 4:00 和晚上 10:00（巴黎時間）。我們希望此次普通股上市能成為 2026 年巴黎和紐約市場股票上漲的明確催化劑，進而促使這些普通股在美國市場比現在更積極地進行銷售。

I will now turn the call over to Jean-Pierre, who will go through the details of these third-quarter financials.

現在我將把電話交給讓-皮埃爾，他將詳細介紹第三季的財務狀況。

Thank you, Patrick. I will start by commenting on the price environment in the first quarter versus the second quarter.

謝謝你，派崔克。首先，我將評論一下第一季和第二季的價格環境。

Brent averaged $69 per barrel during the third quarter versus $68 per barrel in the second quarter, up 2%, but down more than $10 per barrel compared to the third quarter of '24. TTF averaged $11.3 per million BTUs versus $11.9 per million BTUs, down 5%. And the average LNG price decreased to $8.9 per million BTUs versus $9.1 per million BTUs, down 2%. On the other side, for Refining, the European Refining margin significantly improved to $63 per tonne compared to $35 per tonne during the second quarter, up close to 80%.

第三季布蘭特原油均價為每桶 69 美元，而第二季為每桶 68 美元，上漲 2%，但與 2024 年第三季相比，下跌超過每桶 10 美元。TTF 平均價格為每百萬 BTU 11.3 美元，而之前為每百萬 BTU 11.9 美元，下降了 5%。液化天然氣平均價格從每百萬英熱單位 9.1 美元降至每百萬英熱單位 8.9 美元，下降了 2%。另一方面，煉油方面，歐洲煉油利潤率從第二季的每噸 35 美元大幅提高到每噸 63 美元，增幅接近 80%。

In this price environment, the company reported strong financial results, with third-quarter '25 cash flow increasing by 7% compared to the second quarter and adjusted net income increasing by 11%, thanks to the continued positive impact of the new attractive upstream barriers and strong downstream results that reflect the company's ability to capture higher Refining margins in Europe. Overall, profitability remained strong, with return on equity for the 12 months ending September 30 at 14.2% and ROACE close to 12.5%.

在這種價格環境下，該公司公佈了強勁的財務業績，2025 年第三季度現金流比第二季度增長了 7%，調整後淨收入增長了 11%，這得益於新的有吸引力的上游壁壘的持續積極影響以及強勁的下游業績，反映了該公司在歐洲獲得更高煉油利潤率的能力。整體而言，獲利能力依然強勁，截至 9 月 30 日的 12 個月的股本回報率為 14.2%，ROACE 接近 12.5%。

Moving now to the business segments, starting with hydrocarbons. On a year-on-year basis, third-quarter hydrocarbons production exceeded expectations and increased by more than 4%, making it the company's highest growth quarter so far this year. We anticipate that this trend will continue, with fourth-quarter hydrocarbons production expected to grow more than 4% compared to the fourth quarter of '24, notably benefiting from the restart of Ichthys LNG in Australia.

接下來我們來看業務板塊，先從碳氫化合物板塊開始。與去年同期相比，第三季油氣產量超出預期，成長超過 4%，成為該公司今年迄今成長最快的季度。我們預計這一趨勢將持續，預計第四季度碳氫化合物產量將比 2024 年第四季度增長 4% 以上，尤其受益於澳洲 Ichthys LNG 的重啟。

Turning to the quarterly results and starting with Exploration & Production. This segment generated, during the third quarter '25, an adjusted net income of $2.2 billion, up 10% quarter over quarter in a similar price environment and outpacing quarter-over-quarter E&P production growth of around 4%. Similarly, cash flow growth was strong at $4 billion, up 6% quarter over quarter. Importantly, our project portfolio is delivering new low-cost, low-emission oil and gas production that is accretive, with an average upstream CFFO per barrel that is roughly 2 times the base portfolio.

接下來來看季度業績，首先是勘探與生產部分。該業務部門在 2025 年第三季度實現了 22 億美元的調整後淨收入，在類似的價格環境下環比增長 10%，超過了油氣勘探開發產量環比增長約 4%。同樣，現金流成長強勁，達到 40 億美元，季增 6%。重要的是，我們的專案組合正在提供新的低成本、低排放的石油和天然氣生產，這些生產具有增值作用，平均上游每桶CFFO約為基礎組合的2倍。

Regarding our E&P project, we are progressing on all fronts. On the project side, we achieved first oil at the Begonia and CLOV Phase 3 offshore fields in Angola, and we sanctioned Phase 2 of the redevelopment of the Ratawi full field in Iraq, which is part of the GGIP project. As we have now launched all phases of GGIP, we are looking forward to the first oil for Phase 1 of the redevelopment early '26.

關於我們的勘探與生產項目，我們在各個方面都取得了進展。在專案方面，我們在安哥拉的 Begonia 和 CLOV 第三期海上油田實現了首次產油，並且我們批准了伊拉克 Ratawi 全油田重建的第二階段，這是 GGIP 計畫的一部分。由於我們現在已經啟動了 GGIP 的所有階段，我們期待 2026 年初第一階段重建計畫能夠產出第一桶油。

On M&A, the company is consistently upgrading its portfolio. During the last earnings call, we mentioned that we are expecting several E&P divestments in the second half of the year. And during the third quarter, we divested two international blocks in Vaca Muerta in Argentina, which closed this quarter, and three satellite fields on Ekofisk in Norway, out of our strict investment criteria, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

在併購方面，該公司不斷優化其投資組合。在上次財報電話會議上，我們提到預計今年下半年將剝離幾項勘探與生產業務。第三季度，我們剝離了阿根廷瓦卡穆埃爾塔的兩個國際區塊，該交易已於本季度完成；此外，我們還剝離了挪威埃科菲斯克的三個衛星油田，這些油田不符合我們嚴格的投資標準，預計將於第四季度完成。

And lastly, on Exploration, we continue to reload the output to complement existing opportunities. This quarter, we announced new license awards in Nigeria, in the Republic of the Congo, and in Liberia.

最後，在勘探方面，我們將繼續重新加載輸出結果，以補充現有的機會。本季度，我們宣佈在奈及利亞、剛果共和國和賴比瑞亞授予新的許可證。

Moving to Integrated LNG. Third-quarter LNG sales of 10.4 million tonnes were essentially flat quarter over quarter, as third-party purchases offset lower sales from equity production. Cash flow of $1.1 billion was in line with the second quarter in a stable price environment, with an average energy price of around $9 per million BTUs. Adjusted net operating income of $0.9 billion was down 18% quarter over quarter, primarily due to the planned turnaround at Ichthys LNG in Australia that impacted production by around 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the quarter.

轉向一體化液化天然氣。第三季液化天然氣銷量為 1,040 萬噸，與上一季基本持平，因為第三方購買抵消了自有生產銷售的下降。在價格穩定的情況下，現金流為 11 億美元，與第二季持平，平均能源價格約為每百萬 BTU 9 美元。經調整後的淨營業收入為 0.9 億美元，季減 18%，主要原因是澳洲 Ichthys LNG 的計畫檢修導致該季度日產量減少約 5 萬桶油當量。

On the price outlook, forward European gas prices continue to be sustained at around $11 per million BTUs for the first quarter of '25 and winter '25, '26 due to anticipated winter demands. Given the evolution of oil and gas prices in the recent months and the lag effect on pricing formulas, the company anticipates an average energy selling price of around $8.5 per million BTUs for the first quarter '25. On the advancement of our LNG strategy, we are pleased to continue to grow our US presence with a recent FID on Rio Grande LNG Train 4 in South Texas, and we enhanced resilience in our LNG and gas-to-power strategy by acquiring interest in shale gas assets from continental resources in the Anadarko Basin in the US.

價格前景方面，由於預計冬季需求旺盛，2025 年第一季和 2025 年、2026 年冬季歐洲天然氣遠期價格將繼續維持在每百萬 BTU 11 美元左右。鑑於近幾個月來石油和天然氣價格的演變以及定價公式的滯後效應，該公司預計 2025 年第一季平均能源售價約為每百萬 BTU 8.5 美元。在推動液化天然氣戰略方面，我們很高興地宣布，隨著最近對德克薩斯州南部的里奧格蘭德液化天然氣4號生產線做出最終投資決定，我們將繼續擴大在美國的業務；此外，我們還透過收購美國阿納達科盆地大陸頁岩氣資產的權益，增強了液化天然氣和天然氣發電戰略的韌性。

Turning to Integrated Power, net power generation increased 9% quarter over quarter to 12.6 terawatt hour due to increased outputs from flexible generation capacity in Europe. The value of TotalEnergies' unique integrated model is illustrated in the third-quarter financials.

從綜合電力來看，由於歐洲靈活發電能力的增加，淨發電量較上季成長 9%，達到 12.6 太瓦時。TotalEnergies獨特的一體化模式的價值在第三季財務報表中得到了體現。

Total cash flow from operations was $0.6 billion, up 9% quarter over quarter, and in line with annual guidance. To provide more granularity in the Integrated Power financial performance, this quarter, we disclosed the splits in cash flow between production assets -- renewable and gas-fired power plants on one side -- and sales activities -- B2B, B2C, and trading on the other side -- showing that each contributed equally this quarter.

經營活動產生的現金流量總額為 0.6 億美元，季增 9%，與年度預期相符。為了更細緻地展現綜合電力業務的財務業績，本季度我們揭露了生產資產（包括再生能源和燃氣發電廠）與銷售活動（包括 B2B、B2C 和交易）之間的現金流分配情況，顯示本季度兩者的貢獻均等。

During the third quarter, the company has executed well on the farm-down side of its Integrated Power business model, which contributes capital recycling and will generate a tailwind for free cash flow in the fourth quarter. The company signed an agreement for the sale of 50% of the 1.4-gigawatt renewable portfolio in North America and closed the sale of 50% of the 270-megawatt renewable portfolio in France. These deals have a combined cash impact of around $1.5 billion, and in this deal, TotalEnergies retains a 50% stake in the assets and will continue to be the operator after closing and to offtake 100% of the electrons. This is in line with our business model.

第三季度，公司在其綜合電力業務模式的資產剝離方面執行良好，這有助於資本循環利用，並將為第四季度的自由現金流帶來利多。該公司簽署了一項協議，出售其在北美 1.4 吉瓦再生能源組合的 50%，並完成了其在法國 270 兆瓦可再生能源組合的 50% 的出售。這些交易合計帶來約 15 億美元的現金影響，在此次交易中，道達爾能源保留了資產 50% 的股份，並將在交易完成後繼續擔任營運商，並購買 100% 的電力。這符合我們的商業模式。

As an important reminder, our effective upstream growth is not the only contributor to the company's resilience. Integrated Power will take a key role in this too, since it is a differentiated and growing cash flow stream that is outside of crude cycles and with strong demand fundamentals.

需要特別指出的是，我們有效的上游成長並不是公司保持韌性的唯一因素。綜合電力也將在其中發揮關鍵作用，因為它是一個差異化且不斷增長的現金流，不受原油週期影響，並且具有強勁的需求基本面。

Moving to downstream, as Patrick mentioned, during the third quarter, downstream efficiently captured the high-retaining margins in Europe and contributed to the company's resilient financials. Third-quarter adjusted net operating income of $1.1 billion was up more than 30% quarter over quarter. Cash flow of $1.7 billion was up 11% quarter over quarter, thanks to good availability of assets that allowed us to successfully capture improved European margins. In terms of free cash flow during the third quarter, downstream cash flow from operating activities exceeded net investment by over $2.5 billion.

正如帕特里克所提到的，在第三季度，下游業務有效地獲得了歐洲的高留存利潤，並為公司穩健的財務狀況做出了貢獻。第三季調整後營業淨收入為11億美元，季增超過30%。由於資產可用性良好，我們得以成功掌握歐洲利潤率的提升，現金流達到 17 億美元，較上季成長 11%。第三季自由現金流方面，經營活動產生的下游現金流比淨投資多 25 億美元以上。

In Refining, the European Refining margin marker strengthened during the third quarter due to the tension on the diesel supply chain in the context of low inventories. Utilization was 84%, which was toward the high end of the guidance range of 80% to 85%. And it reflects efficient operations and planned turnarounds at Port Arthur in the US and HTC in Korea.

在煉油領域，由於庫存低迷導致柴油供應鏈緊張，歐洲煉油利潤率在第三季走強。利用率為 84%，接近 80% 至 85% 指導範圍的高端。這反映了美國亞瑟港和韓國 HTC 的高效運作和有計劃的轉型。

In Marketing & Services, results remained consistently strong, with high-margin activities offsetting lower volumes. Looking ahead, we anticipate Refining utilization of 80% to 84% in the fourth quarter, which accounts for scheduled turnarounds at Antwerp and SATORP.

在行銷和服務方面，業績持續強勁，高利潤活動抵銷了銷售下降的影響。展望未來，我們預計第四季度煉油產能利用率將達到 80% 至 84%，這其中考慮了安特衛普和 SATORP 的計畫檢修。

Moving now to the company level and starting with working capital. As expected, we benefited from a working capital release during the third quarter, which was a $1.3 billion positive contribution to cash. Furthermore, for the fourth quarter, we anticipate another positive contribution.

現在轉到公司層面，先從營運資金說起。正如預期的那樣，我們在第三季受益於營運資金的釋放，這為現金流貢獻了 13 億美元。此外，我們預計第四季也將取得積極貢獻。

On net investments, they meaningfully decreased to $3.1 billion in the fourth quarter, which includes $0.4 billion of divestment, net of acquisitions. In the fourth quarter, as mentioned by Patrick, disposals are estimated to total $2 billion, including the closing of Nigeria and Norway divestments for Exploration & Production, as well as a farm-down of renewable assets in North America and Greece for Integrated Power. And we reiterate full-year '25 net investment guidance of $17 billion to $17.5 billion. Based on anticipated net investments and working cap, we expect gearing to decrease to 15% to 16% at year-end compared to 17.3% at the end of the third quarter.

第四季淨投資大幅下降至 31 億美元，其中包括 4 億美元的資產剝離（扣除收購後）。正如帕特里克所提到的，第四季度資產處置總額預計為 20 億美元，其中包括勘探與生產業務在尼日利亞和挪威的資產剝離，以及綜合電力業務在北美和希臘的可再生能源資產轉讓。我們重申 2025 年全年淨投資預期為 170 億美元至 175 億美元。根據預期的淨投資和營運資本，我們預期年底負債率將降至 15% 至 16%，而第三季末的負債比率為 17.3%。

With that, Patrick and I are now available to answer your questions. And operator, so please open up the line for questions.

這樣一來，我和派崔克現在可以回答你們的問題了。接線員，請開通線路接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

（操作說明）莉迪亞·雷恩福斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you. And good afternoon to both of you, and thank you for the presentation. Two questions, if I could. The first one, can I just get your clarification on where we are on the tax issues in France? I've seen headlines this morning about tax on share buybacks, what that actually means.

謝謝。兩位下午好，感謝你們的演講。如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題。首先，請問您能否解釋一下我們在法國的稅務問題上處於什麼階段？我今天早上看到了一些關於股票回購稅收的新聞標題，以及這究竟意味著什麼。

And then the second one, I think Patrick, this comes back to your point around the growth in production is obviously doing quite well, but also the growth in cash flow numbers. So when you're thinking about 2026, can you give us an indication as to how much more cash flow might grow than production for next year? Just remind us of that. Thank you.

然後是第二點，帕特里克，我認為這又回到了你剛才提到的生產增長明顯良好，現金流數字也有所增長這一點。那麼，在展望 2026 年時，您能否預測明年的現金流成長幅度可能會比產量成長幅度高出多少？請提醒我們一下。謝謝。

Okay. Good morning. Good afternoon, Lydia.

好的。早安.下午好，莉迪亞。

First, as you observe, there is quite a huge -- quite a big fiscal creativity in the French Parliament these last days. And clearly, the full recipe will not work. And we know, though, we know. And so we are careful not to overreact to the night news. There was a super tax on multinationals, which is completely out of the rule of law. France has signed 125 fiscal agreements with many countries.

首先，正如你所觀察到的，法國議會最近幾天在財政方面展現了相當大的創造力。顯然，完整的配方行不通。但我們知道，我們都知道。因此，我們小心翼翼，避免對晚間新聞反應過度。對跨國公司徵收超級稅，這完全違反了法治。法國已與多個國家簽署了125項財政協議。

The principle is no double taxation. And this is very anchored. And as the government reminded the Parliament, this is the right rule. So we will not be touched by that. And there is also in the Constitution some already decision when you want to tax above what is reasonable, then these type of taxations are not approved or canceled.

其原則是避免雙重課稅。而且這一點非常穩固。正如政府向議會所強調的那樣，這才是正確的規則。所以我們不會受到影響。憲法中也已有規定，如果徵稅超過合理範圍，則此類稅收將不予批准或予以取消。

So honestly, the political situation in France is not very stable. There is a huge debate making a lot of noise. But I trust that at the end of the day, we'll learn to reasonable avenue. And as you all know as well, we -- TotalEnergies does not make a lot of benefit in France. So I would say we'll follow this debate.

說實話，法國的政治局勢不太穩定。一場激烈的爭論正在發酵，引起了很大的轟動。但我相信，最終我們會找到一條合理的途徑。如大家所知，我們－TotalEnergies在法國並沒有獲得太多利潤。所以我覺得我們會關注這場辯論。

But again, I'm comfortable with the fact that at the end of the day, government will take the right decisions to maintain, in fact, which is fundamental, what we call the supply policy. If you want -- before, to redistribute in a country, you need to create wealth. You need to produce. You need to create results, revenues. And then you can speak about distribution. We will come back to that.

但是，我仍然相信，最終政府會做出正確的決定，來維持我們所謂的供給政策，而這才是根本的。如果你想──在此之前──在一個國家進行財富再分配，你需要創造財富。你需要產出。你需要創造業績，創造收入。然後你就可以談談分銷了。我們稍後會再談到這一點。

So I understand that, and I think, by the way, that this situation in France is waiting on the share price of TotalEnergies. But I remind you as well that we are a global company. But again, largely 90%, 95% I think of our cash flows and our results are not coming from our country where we have the exporters. So again, I think from this perspective, the profile of TotalEnergies is quite different from other French companies. And that market should integrate it.

所以我理解這一點，而且我認為，順便說一句，法國目前的局勢取決於道達爾能源的股價。但我還要提醒各位，我們是一家全球性公司。但話說回來，我認為我們90%、95%的現金流和業績並非來自我們擁有出口商的國家。所以，我認為從這個角度來看，道達爾能源的概況與其他法國公司截然不同。而這個市場應該要將其整合起來。

For 2026, honestly, Lydia, you are asking me a question to which I will answer more precisely in February. As we know, we have a meeting point on your results and what is the plan for '26. So I mean, as I told you in New York, we anticipate to grow more than 3% for '26 again. For the cash flows, I don't have all the figures. Of course, it's related to the new production coming on stream.

莉迪亞，老實說，對於2026年，你問的這個問題，我會在二月給出更詳細的答案。據我們所知，我們有一個關於你們的成績以及2026年計劃的會面點。所以我的意思是，正如我在紐約告訴你們的那樣，我們預計 2026 年的成長將再次超過 3%。至於現金流量方面，我沒有全部數據。當然，這與即將上線的新劇集有關。

But part of the, I would say, new production of '25, like the Brazilian production, will have the full effect in '26. So I anticipate another accretive effect. The size of it, I mean, you have to be a little patient. But again, clearly, we are in a delivery mode. We deliver the production growth, more than 3%. This year, probably, it will be next to 4%. In fact, at the end of the year, rather than 3%, 3.5% to 4% for '25 next year, at least 3%. And then, let's deliver the accretive cash.

但我認為，2025 年新生產的一部分，就像巴西的生產一樣，將在 2026 年產生全面影響。所以我預計還會出現另一種累積效應。我的意思是，它的尺寸很大，你需要有點耐心。但很明顯，我們目前處於交付模式。我們實現了超過 3% 的產量成長。今年，可能接近 4%。事實上，到年底，明年的成長率不是 3%，而是 3.5% 到 4%，至少是 3%。然後，讓我們注入增值現金。

But this is a roadmap, not only '25, '26, for the next five years. And the famous -- we reminded you and we gave you comfort during the New York presentation that we will deliver this $10 billion of additional free cash from all our segments in the next five years.

但這不僅是 2025 年、2026 年的路線圖，更是未來五年的路線圖。我們曾在紐約的演講中提醒過大家，並讓大家放心，我們將在未來五年內從所有業務部門獲得這100億美元的額外自由現金流。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Thank you, and congratulations on the strong growth. Two questions, if I may. First, I was wondering if you feel like you're able, at the moment, to capture the extraordinary Refining margins we're seeing and how the improvements to your Port Arthur and Donges refineries are progressing.

謝謝，並祝賀你們取得如此強勁的成長。請問兩個問題。首先，我想知道您目前是否能夠捕捉到我們所看到的非凡的煉油利潤，以及您的阿瑟港和東格斯煉油廠的改進進展如何。

And then secondly, I was just wondering what you're seeing in terms of disruptions of the Russian volumes following the latest sanctions and if you start to see an impact on the physical market through your trading and optimization divisions. Thank you.

其次，我想知道在最近的製裁之後，您觀察到俄羅斯的交易量受到了哪些幹擾，以及您的交易和優化部門是否開始看到對現貨市場的影響。謝謝。

Thank you for this question, Michele. To be honest, when I read again our press release, I think we're a little bearish on the oil price and the Refining margins. The Refining margins that we captured since the beginning of October, for the last month, is around $75 per tonne.

謝謝你的提問，米歇爾。說實話，當我再次閱讀我們的新聞稿時，我認為我們對油價和煉油利潤率有點悲觀。自 10 月初以來，我們上個月獲得的煉油利潤約為每噸 75 美元。

So when we guided you at about $50, I think we're a little shy. And in fact, it's fundamentally linked because we begin to see real impact in the market of these last Russian sanctions. I think the market is underestimating what it means when you have US sanctions, two large Russian companies, which are at the core of trading Russian oil, by the way. And when Europe says that we are targeting countries which are considered, I would say, dangerous, like India, Turkey and China, but if you trade oil or products from these countries, you could be under sanction.

所以，當我們建議你大約 50 美元的時候，我覺得我們有點保守了。事實上，這兩者之間存在根本聯繫，因為我們開始看到俄羅斯最近的製裁對市場產生了真正的影響。我認為市場低估了美國制裁和兩家大型俄羅斯公司（順便說一句，這兩家公司是俄羅斯石油貿易的核心）所帶來的影響。歐洲方面表示，他們的目標是那些被認為是危險的國家，例如印度、土耳其和中國。但是，如果你從這些國家交易石油或產品，你可能會受到製裁。

The reaction today in the market, and I shared some views with some of my colleagues, including in -- I was in Riyadh the last two days. I can -- I feel it today, including trading houses as well, are more cautious. And we see that everybody is taking this risk very seriously, including secondary sanctions, which might become. And so I see some impact.

今天市場出現了一些反應，我和一些同事分享了我的觀點，包括——我過去兩天都在利雅德。我能感覺到──今天包括交易公司在內，大家都更加謹慎了。我們看到每個人都非常認真地對待這項風險，包括可能出現的二級制裁。所以，我看到了一些影響。

And I think the Refining margins today is [incessantly] more around $100 per tonne than the $75 in average. And it is linked clearly to, in fact, these sanctions will oblige to reroute some volumes and to find a way to bring, I would say, products and crude oil more expensively to the different locations of the planet.

我認為如今煉油利潤率（一直）在每噸 100 美元左右，而不是平均每噸 75 美元。事實上，這顯然與這些制裁有關，這些制裁將迫使一些貨物改道運輸，並找到一種方法，以更昂貴的方式將產品和原油運送到地球上的不同地區。

So I think this is clear but also could have an impact, by the way, on the oil price, I mean, the crude oil price. We've seen a reaction, whatever announced. Today, it's still $65, but $65, I think, is a good assumption for this quarter, maybe a little more. So I would say more bullish, that's what we wrote a few days ago, because I begin to realize that these sanctions will have a real impact in this market. And most of the players are taking them seriously, which is good, by the way.

所以我覺得這一點很清楚，而且順便說一句，這也可能會對油價，我是指原油價格產生影響。無論宣布什麼，我們都看到了迴響。今天仍然是 65 美元，但我認為 65 美元是本季比較合理的假設，或許可以略高一些。所以我認為應該要更加看漲，這也是我們幾天前寫的文章的觀點，因為我開始意識到這些制裁將對這個市場產生真正的影響。而且大多數球員都認真對待這些建議，這很好。

TotalEnergies, as you know, we stopped trading any Russian oil since the end of '22, somewhere we penalized ourselves compared to other practices. But I think it was the right way to comply and to be strict on the Russian sanctions. So capturing the Refining margins, for sure, the good news of the third quarter is that we managed to do it.

TotalEnergies，如您所知，我們從 2022 年底開始停止交易任何俄羅斯石油，與其他做法相比，我們在某種程度上受到了懲罰。但我認為這是遵守和嚴格執行對俄羅斯制裁的正確做法。因此，第三季的好消息是，我們成功地獲得了煉油利潤。

We had a turnaround on Port Arthur, which is down. So it's fully back online now. Donges as well is running. So it's not fully -- not the last equipment we are waiting for by the end of the year, but it's running. So we delivered results. The fourth quarter, we have two turnarounds -- one in Antwerp, one in SATORP -- which are two big machines in our reserves. But I expect that this will be, I would say, compensated again by the overall asset and by the fact that the margins are higher. So I'm positive.

我們對阿瑟港（Port Arthur）進行了調整，目前港口已關閉。現在網站已經完全恢復上線了。Donges也在運作。所以它還沒有完全投入使用——它不是我們今年年底前需要的最後一批設備，但它正在運行。我們取得了成果。第四季度，我們有兩台設備需要檢修——一台在安特衛普，一台在SATORP——這兩台設備是我們儲備中的兩台大型機器。但我認為，整體資產以及更高的利潤率將再次彌補這一損失。所以我持肯定態度。

And when I gave you a guidance of 27.5 for '28 -- I was maybe too bearish by stating 27 in New York -- it's because as well, I integrate these elements, which again, and the duty and all the organization of Refining & Chemicals and Vincent Stockard are dedicated to capture these margins, which are good. So this is where we are, and I'm bullish on that.

當我給出 2028 年 27.5 的指導價時——我當時在紐約給出的 27 可能過於悲觀了——這是因為我也考慮到了這些因素，而煉油化工部門和 Vincent Stockard 的所有組織和職責都致力於獲取這些良好的利潤率。這就是我們目前的處境，我對現狀持樂觀態度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you. Good morning, Patrick and Jean-Pierre. I wonder if I could start with your upstream margin. The volume guidance is, again, pretty strong for Q4. But I guess what we're observing is that your upstream margin seems to be moving up as well as the volumes. And I'm trying to understand what happens as the mix changes going forward. So for example, Iraq never historically had great margins. So how do you see the margin mix continuing as the growth trajectory sustains over the next several years? That's my first question.

謝謝。早上好，派崔克和讓-皮埃爾。我想知道我是否可以從您的上游利潤開始談起。第四季銷售預期依然相當強勁。但我想我們觀察到的是，你的上游利潤率似乎也隨著銷售量的成長而上升。我正在努力了解隨著成分的變化，未來會發生什麼。例如，伊拉克歷史上從未有過很大的優勢。那麼，隨著未來幾年成長動能的持續，您認為利潤率結構將如何變化？這是我的第一個問題。

Now, my second question, if I may, is sort of a quick one. Oil appears still to be in a very technical market. So we all see the oversupply, but it seems to keep bouncing around that $60 level. I guess my question is, if you ended up with better cash flow than you thought when you reset the buyback, what would be the first call on cash? Would it go to the balance sheet to continue the deleveraging? Or would it go to the higher end of the buybacks? Thank you.

現在，如果可以的話，我的第二個問題比較簡短。石油市場似乎仍處於高度技術化的階段。所以我們都看到了供應過剩的情況，但價格似乎一直在 60 美元左右波動。我想問的是，如果你在重置回購計畫後獲得的現金流比你預想的要好，那麼你會先如何處理現金？這會體現在資產負債表上，以繼續降低槓桿率嗎？或會選擇回購比例較高的方案？謝謝。

The second question is clear. It will go to the balance sheet. So the second answer, I would say, is clear. It would go to the balance sheet.

第二個問題很明確。這將計入資產負債表。所以第二個答案，我認為，很明確。這將計入資產負債表。

It would go to the balance sheet because I observed that, and I spent quite a lot of time with investors in the last month, and clearly -- or I would say long-term investor -- deleveraging the balance sheet is important for all of us. And if you want to be -- the best buyback policy would be to be counter-cyclical. To be counter-cyclical, you need to have a stronger balance sheet. So that's a position I would take and keep.

它將被納入資產負債表，因為我觀察到了這一點，而且上個月我花了很多時間和投資者交流，很明顯——或者我應該說是長期投資者——降低資產負債率對我們所有人來說都很重要。如果你想這樣做－最好的回購政策就是反週期回購。要逆週期發展，你需要擁有更強的資產負債表。所以，我會採取並堅持這個立場。

So consider the guidance we gave you. We gave you quite a good guidance and we told you 0.75 to 1.5 between $60 and $70, $2 billion on $80. And I'm answering for '26, to be clear. If we continue and we see the plan to deliver more and more free cash on the roadmap to $10 billion, then we might revisit this scheme. But today, in '26, if it's coming, in your case, if we are above 60 in '26 or above 70, then we will continue to deleverage.

所以請認真考慮我們給你的建議。我們給了你很好的指導，我們告訴你，60美元到70美元之間是0.75到1.5，80美元是20億美元。需要說明的是，我回答的是 2026 年的問題。如果我們繼續前進，並且看到路線圖上計劃發放越來越多的免費現金，最終達到 100 億美元，那麼我們可能會重新考慮這個方案。但今天，如果 2026 年真的到來，就你們而言，如果 2026 年我們高於 60 或高於 70，那麼我們將繼續去槓桿化。

Upstream margins -- no, Iraq is a good contract. So I know it's not at all the case. As I told you, we are far away from the historical service contract. When we came back in Iraq, it was clear that either we had a good contract, a strong contract, it was a matter of risk and reward. And in particular, the Iraqi contract is quite reactive to the oil price. We capture some upside on it, which of course is important. We benefit in Iraq from quite low cost production, so the breakeven is low.

上游利潤——不，伊拉克是一份不錯的合約。所以我知道事實並非如此。正如我之前所說，我們距離歷史服務合約還很遠。當我們回到伊拉克時，很明顯，要么我們簽了一份好的合同，一份強有力的合同，要么這就是風險與回報的問題。尤其值得注意的是，伊拉克原油期貨合約對油價波動非常敏感。我們從中獲得了一些收益，這當然很重要。在伊拉克，我們受益於較低的生產成本，因此損益平衡點也很低。

And so it will contribute. The Iraqi barrels, don't make a mistake, are contributing to the increase or are accretive. And again, I can give you a -- but I think we gave you in New York, but in fact, the base barrels are on average around $19, $20 per barrel. And today, these new barrels are more between $30 and $40 per barrel. So it's why we have an accretive growth in upstream. So I think you will continue to see, again, the free cash flow from upstream will move quicker than the growth of production.

因此，它將有所貢獻。伊拉克的油桶，毫無疑問，正在加劇油桶數量的成長，或者說是油桶數量的增加。我再說一遍，我可以給你一個——但我認為我們在紐約已經給你說過了，但實際上，基礎桶的平均價格約為每桶 19 至 20 美元。而如今，這些新酒桶的價格在每個酒桶 30 美元到 40 美元之間。所以這就是上游業務持續成長的原因。所以我認為，你會再次看到，上游的自由現金流成長速度將超過產量成長速度。

That's very helpful. Thank you, guys.

那很有幫助。謝謝大家。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. And firstly, it's nice to see that production growth being the accretion coming through. That really is a differentiator. Two questions. The first was on the divestments for the year. I know you mentioned Nigeria in the $2 billion. I believe there were two deals that you're planning to do, one of which wasn't approved. So could you just outline whether the SPDC site, that sale was -- is that in the $2 billion or is that on top of the $2 billion?

你好。謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，很高興看到產量成長正在逐步實現。這確實是一個顯著的優勢。兩個問題。第一個問題是年度資產剝離情形。我知道你提到了尼日利亞，那可是20億美元啊。我相信你們計劃進行兩項交易，其中一項沒有獲得批准。那麼，您能否簡要說明一下，SPDC 基地的出售——是包含在 20 億美元之中，還是在 20 億美元之外的額外交易？

And then secondly, recently, you signed a letter with a number of other CEOs around European competitiveness. I was just wondering if you could talk about whether that letter has actually catalyzed any kind of response on the policy front. Any color there would be helpful. Thank you.

其次，最近您與其他幾位執行長共同簽署了一封關於歐洲競爭力的信函。我只是想問您，那封信是否真的在政策上引發了任何反應。任何顏色都會有所幫助。謝謝。

What is the second question? Sorry, I didn't catch it well. Okay, I understood. I know. Okay, understood, European competitiveness.

第二個問題是什麼？抱歉，我沒聽清楚。好的，我明白了。我知道。好的，明白了，歐洲競爭力。

First, on divestments, I will be very precise with you. The $2 billion, I will give you where it's coming from. We intend to close, and we have already closed some of them, and all, I think, we have signed and we are in the process, and it's a matter of closure: the Bunga divestment in Nigeria, Norway, the satellite Ekofisk sales, renewable assets in the US, renewable assets which will be announced in Greece, and as well, we have another project where we will -- but I cannot yet disclose to you guys -- another $300 million which will be announced soon. So it's $2 billion.

首先，關於資產剝離，我會非常具體地告訴你。我會告訴你這20億美元的來源。我們打算完成一些交易，其中一些已經完成，我認為所有交易我們都已經簽署並正在進行中，現在只剩下收尾工作了：尼日利亞的 Bunga 資產剝離、挪威的 Ekofisk 衛星出售、美國的可再生能源資產、即將宣布的希臘可再生能源資產，此外，我們還有一個項目，我們將投資 3 億美元——但我現在還不能宣布——但我現在還不能宣布。所以是20億美元。

That does not include, to be precise, the SPDC-ISGB divestment, not only because it was approved, but because we, in fact, were not able to close -- there were some conditions presented on all sides. And we consider that it was not reasonable to close with, I would say, the supposed buyer. So we are discussing today -- we have advanced discussions with two new buyers, which are, I think, serious ones.

準確來說，這並不包括 SPDC-ISGB 的撤資，不僅因為該撤資已獲批准，而且因為我們實際上未能完成交易——各方都提出了一些條件。我們認為與所謂的買家完成交易是不合理的。所以我們今天正在討論——我們與兩位新買家進行了深入洽談，我認為他們是認真的。

But we will not be able to be clear, to answer your question, to close it before this quarter. So it's for next year. By the way, it's good because it's part of the plan for next year. So from this perspective, what we have observed is that divestments of E&P assets generally takes more time even if we have demonstrated with our divestments in Argentina, but we were able to sign and to close in the same quarter. So sometimes, it's going quicker.

但是，在本季度結束之前，我們無法給出明確的答案來回答您的問題，也無法解決這個問題。所以這是為明年準備的。順便說一句，這很好，因為這是明年計劃的一部分。因此從這個角度來看，我們觀察到，即使我們在阿根廷的資產剝離已經證明，我們能夠在同一季度簽署並完成交易，但剝離勘探與生產資產通常需要更多時間。所以有時候，速度會更快。

So the plan is really clear. We will and we have some interested buyers and serious buyers on it. So we are working on this one. There are others, like I mentioned to you, ideas for this year and next year that I mentioned in New York on which we work as well.

所以計劃非常明確。我們會的，而且我們已經有一些有興趣的買家和認真的買家了。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。正如我之前跟你提到的，還有一些關於今年和明年的想法，我在紐約也提到過，我們也在努力推動這些想法。

On the European competitive letter, the answer is you probably follow that some tweets or LinkedIn European leaders are not really, I mean, listening to our requests. They have been -- I would say we had some calls, some discussions with some European commissioners who took the letter seriously from 40 CEOs to say, so we understood they think we are maybe asking them too much. But I think it's a sort of wake-up call from the 40 CEOs.

關於歐洲競爭信函，答案是您可能已經注意到，一些推特或領英上的歐洲領導人並沒有真正，我的意思是，聽取我們的請求。可以說，我們和一些歐盟委員進行了一些通話和討論，他們認真對待了40位執行長的來信，所以我們了解到他們認為我們可能對他們的要求太高了。但我認為這對40位CEO來說是一種警醒。

We, myself and the Siemens CEO, we are the spokespersons. Let's be clear, we were just reflecting what people expressed during our meetings between French and German CEOs. I've seen that on some topics which are, I would say, giving some more polemics, there have been some calls that are not only from European CEOs but from the US Energy Secretary and Qatar Energy Minister to call to revisit some of these legislations, which seem to be in fact against competitiveness and, again, for some of them putting at stake the security of supply of Europe.

我和西門子執行長是我們三人的發言人。需要說明的是，我們只是反映了法國和德國執行長在會議期間所表達的觀點。我注意到，在一些引發更多爭議的話題上，不僅歐洲首席執行官，還有美國能源部長和卡達能源部長都呼籲重新審視一些立法，這些立法實際上似乎不利於競爭力，而且其中一些立法還會危及歐洲的能源供應安全。

So I think this is something which is serious. And we are European CEOs, and we, of course, want to continue to contribute to Europe's development and growth. But to do it, I think it's also our job to speak up when we consider that conditions are changing and it might be difficult for us to contribute to European prosperity. So it's a moving -- it's a continuous, I would say, fight. But let's contribute to it.

所以我認為這是一件很嚴重的事。我們是歐洲的首席執行官，我們當然希望繼續為歐洲的發展和成長做出貢獻。但我認為，要做到這一點，我們也有責任在情況發生變化，我們可能難以對歐洲繁榮做出貢獻時，勇於發聲。所以這是一場不斷變化的——可以說是一場持續不斷的鬥爭。但讓我們為此貢獻一份力量。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

馬丁‧拉茨，摩根士丹利。

Yeah, hi. Hello. I've got two, if I may. First of all, what I thought has been really surprising this year is the strength of new LNG FIDs. Already a year, 1.5 years ago, many of us were writing reports about the surplus in the LNG market in the second half of the decade. And yet, 2025 has been a near record year of new LNG capacity to be commissioned. And Total still has a few projects it needs to decide on. I was wondering if you perhaps could share with us your thoughts on, despite the outlook, the number of new FIDs being as strong as they are and also how it impacts your own decisions in terms of future LNG FIDs.

嗨，你好。你好。如果可以的話，我有兩個。首先，今年最讓我感到驚訝的是新的液化天然氣最終投資決定（FID）的強勁勢頭。早在一年半前，我們中的許多人就撰寫了關於本世紀後半葉液化天然氣市場過剩情況的報告。然而，2025 年是新增液化天然氣產能接近創紀錄的一年。道達爾還有幾個項目需要決定。我想請您分享一下，儘管前景不明朗，但新的最終投資決定 (FID) 數量仍然如此強勁，這對您未來在液化天然氣 (LNG) 最終投資決定方面做出的決策有何影響。

And the second one I wanted to ask is about the shares and the equivalence between sort of the Paris shares and sort of US shares and sort of consolidating this into one single class of shares. I was wondering if this could impact the execution of your buyback program in the sense that I was wondering if this is in place from December 8 onwards, as I now understand it, if some of the buyback program could be executed in sort of New York-listed shares. And of course, the context behind the question is then also if that could then be a way to avoid some of the proposals that have creatively been floated as I think you put it in French Parliament over the last couple of days.

第二個我想問的是關於股份以及巴黎股份和美國股份之間的等價性，以及如何將它們合併成一類股份。我想知道這是否會影響貴公司股票回購計畫的執行，因為據我了解，如果這項措施從 12 月 8 日起生效，那麼部分回購計畫是否可以在紐約上市的股票上執行。當然，這個問題背後的背景也是，這是否可以成為避免某些提案的方法，正如你所說，這些提案在過去幾天裡在法國議會中被巧妙地提出。

Okay. The second question on ADR, no, it has not impacted all the execution of the buyback program. I remind you that the ADR conversion is about around 9%, 10% of our shares, so obviously the buyback program will be executed on the Paris stock market, to be clear, and not on the New York-listed because it will be so much from us to buy back from New York, where we want, on the contrary, to give more life to this New York market.

好的。關於ADR的第二個問題，不，它並沒有影響回購計畫的所有執行。我提醒各位，ADR轉換約占我們股份的9%到10%，所以很顯然，回購計劃將在巴黎證券交易所執行，而不是在紐約證券交易所執行，因為從紐約回購對我們來說成本太高，而我們恰恰希望為紐約市場注入更多活力。

So I prefer more activity and finding more. We will buy back shares in New York when we see we have much more actual shares on this side of the Atlantic, I would say. So first point -- and honestly, it will not, by the way, avoid in any way tax proposals. And again, the tax proposals are funny proposals.

所以我比較喜歡多活動、多探索。我認為，當我們在大西洋彼岸擁有更多實際股份時，我們會回購紐約的股份。所以第一點——老實說，順便一提，這並不能以任何方式避免稅收提案。再說一遍，這些稅收提案真是滑稽可笑。

Again, there are some principles. When President Hollande tried to impose -- by the way, he tried to impose a 3% extra tax on dividends, which was cancelled by the European Union and by the French Constitutional Court. And all of us have the coup of money they took during three, four years. So again, there are some principles. We are in a rule-of-law continent and a rule-of-law country, and this is the reality.

同樣，也有一些原則。順便說一句，歐朗德總統曾試圖對股息徵收 3% 的額外稅，但這項政策被歐盟和法國憲法法院取消了。我們都被他們在三、四年間掠奪的錢財所蒙蔽。所以，這裡還是有一些原則的。我們身處法治大陸，我們也是法治國家，這就是現實。

So you must make a split between the political debates, which are quite vigorous, I would say, and eventually accretive and the reality of the rule of law. And we know that there is some limit. And when I see the figures -- and I will tell you what I'm thinking -- the higher it is, the better it is. Because then I'm sure it will not go through the system.

所以你必須將政治辯論（我認為這些辯論相當激烈，而且最終會不斷累積）與法治的現實區分開來。我們知道這其中存在著一定的限度。當我看到這些數字時——我可以告訴你我的想法——數值越高越好。因為那樣的話，我肯定它就無法通過系統審核了。

So I mean, it's a reality and there is -- you can -- in the French Constitution, you cannot deprive people unreasonably of their profits and their reserves. And buybacks are not at all a profit. Buyback is just a matter of distribution, and by way of investment in the company, we invest in the company.

所以我的意思是，這是現實，而且──你可以──在法國憲法中，你不能無理剝奪人們的利潤和儲備。而且，股票回購根本不會獲利。股票回購只是分配問題，透過對公司的投資，我們就是在投資公司。

So I mean, I'm ready again. I think it's a topic on which I'm ready to continue to explain to Parliament members what are buybacks. But I think we'll -- again, don't overreact to this type of, I would say, news. And I'm afraid we'll have all the news during the next 30 days coming from the Parliament. At the end of the day, I trust the government.

所以我的意思是，我又準備好了。我認為我已準備好繼續向議員們解釋什麼是回購。但我認為我們——再次強調，不要對這類新聞反應過度。恐怕接下來30天裡，我們所有的消息都將來自議會。歸根究底，我信任政府。

On the first question, FIDs -- sorry, FIDs. I mean, I'm not sure. I mean, there were a lot of announcements. I'm not sure about how many FIDs exactly. Because between the announcements, you have a flow of news of projects being revised because they get the permitting or they get the approval for non-FTA countries’ export from the US administration, so you have a news flow coming. Then FID, I know Train 4 and 5 in the next decade. Yes, I know them.

關於第一個問題，FIDs——抱歉，是FIDs。我的意思是，我不太確定。我的意思是，有很多公告發布。我不太確定具體有多少個FID。因為在公告發布間隙，會有項目因獲得許可或獲得美國政府批准而進行修訂的消息，以便向非自由貿易協定國家出口，所以會有新聞不斷湧現。然後是FID，我知道未來十年內會有4號和5號列車。是的，我認識他們。

I know that one or two competitors are serious and are progressing. Because as I said in New York, all these projects, they need to find the financing -- an acceptable, good financing, not an expensive one. Otherwise, you'd destroy the value. On Train 4, we managed to put in place a project financing at the at the Rio Grande, 6.4%, around 6.5%, which was good project financing, which has the leverage on it. Other projects don't have the same good favors, I would say, as Rio Grande and Rio Grande LNG.

我知道有一兩個競爭對手很認真，而且正在取得進展。正如我在紐約所說，所有這些項目都需要找到融資——一種可以接受的、好的融資，而不是昂貴的融資。否則，你會破壞這個價值。在 4 號列車上，我們設法在格蘭德河畔落實了專案融資，融資額為 6.4% 到 6.5%，這是一個不錯的專案融資，具有槓桿效應。我認為，其他項目不像裡奧格蘭德和里奧格蘭德液化天然氣項目那樣享有如此好運。

So then, of course, I agree that we need to take that into consideration. I have a strong policy, a clear view. We decided to transfer most of our exposure on the GKM, I would say, LNG spot market to the Brent formulas. And we have been active. I think we are very right to do it. I'm more bullish on the oil price, as I explained that on this one by the end of the decade. So of course, then we need to assess and to take into account that we postponed Cameron 24 because the CapEx was too high. It's not the time to run again on Cameron 24.

所以，我當然同意我們需要考慮這一點。我擁有堅定的政策和清晰的願景。我們決定將GKM（或LNG）現貨市場的大部分投資轉移到布蘭特原油市場。我們一直積極行動。我認為我們這樣做非常正確。我對油價更為看好，正如我之前解釋的那樣，到本十年末油價將會上漲。所以，我們當然需要評估並考慮到，我們推遲了 Cameron 24 項目，因為資本支出太高了。現在還不是再次競選卡麥隆24號的時候。

The other decision we have, in fact, in our portfolio is Papua New Guinea. You know that we are working on the CapEx to lower the CapEx. And it's clear that lowering the CapEx is of utmost importance in a market which could be, from this perspective, weaker when we launch the project. So that's a topic on which we have to work, and we have demonstrated already that we know how to be disciplined in that market, giving priority to, I would say, first- and second-quartile projects in our portfolio. And that's an element which will have to be taken in consideration.

事實上，我們投資組合中的另一個投資項目是巴布亞紐幾內亞。您知道我們正在努力降低資本支出。顯然，降低資本支出對於從這個角度來看可能較為疲軟的市場而言至關重要，因為當我們啟動專案時，市場可能會比較疲軟。所以這是我們必須努力的方向，我們已經證明我們知道如何在這個市場中保持自律，優先考​​慮我們投資組合中排名前25%的項目。這是必須考慮的因素之一。

By the way, we have announced that we have lifted the force majeure on Mozambique. And there is a funny figure which is in some press and news agencies which speak about $25 billion. We are not at all -- and I want to be clear and strong on this news -- I don't know. People are playing games, which is not acceptable. They have access to -- some people have relinquished a letter that I sent to the President of Mozambique. It's clear. It's written, $20 billion in the letter, out of which $4.5 billion came from what we spent in the last four years. So the budget in '20, when we left in 2021, was around -- it was approved $15 billion, 16 billion. You add $4.5 billion, you are down to $20 billion, $20.5 billion. That's the reality of this budget.

順便一提，我們已經宣布解除對莫三比克的不可抗力聲明。一些媒體和新聞機構報導了一個有趣的數字，說是 250 億美元。我們完全不知道——而且我想明確、堅定地表明這一點——我不知道。人們在玩遊戲，這是不可接受的。他們掌握了──有些人交出了我寫給莫三比克總統的一封信。天氣晴朗。信中寫道，總額為 200 億美元，其中 45 億美元來自我們過去四年的支出。所以，2020 年的預算，也就是我們 2021 年離開時，大約是——它被批准了 150 億美元，160 億美元。加上 45 億美元，就剩下 200 億美元，205 億美元了。這就是這份預算的實際情況。

And by the way, these costs -- the real cost, what we've done is that we spent -- we've done all the detailed engineering, and all the procurement has been done. And so today, as soon as we fully remobilize everybody, we are purely in a construction mode. And that's why we said we are able to deliver the project by 2029. And so I've discovered some people were surprised, but in fact, we spent some money in order to, I would say, recapture part of the time which was under force majeure.

順便說一下，這些成本——真正的成本，我們已經投入了——我們已經完成了所有的詳細工程設計，所有的採購工作也都完成了。因此，今天一旦我們全面恢復所有人員的動員，我們就完全進入了建造模式。這就是為什麼我們說我們能夠在 2029 年交付該專案的原因。因此，我發現有些人感到驚訝，但實際上，我們花了一些錢，以便，可以說，彌補因不可抗力而損失的部分時間。

So the budget is not total of '25 -- and I want to be strong -- it's $20 billion, $20.5 billion as we will restart. And again, I can confirm it because we had long discussions, of course, with contractors. And so we have put all these figures together with them, including on the delivery in '29. We have strong commitments. So we have realigned the whole system in order to be able to execute properly this project.

所以預算總額不是 250 億美元——我想說得更具體些——而是 200 億美元，或 205 億美元，因為我們將重新啟動。我再次確認這一點，因為我們當然與承包商進行了長時間的討論。因此，我們將所有這些數字與它們放在一起，包括 2029 年的交付情況。我們有著堅定的承諾。因此，我們對整個系統進行了重新調整，以便能夠順利執行這個專案。

Wonderful. Thank you.

精彩的。謝謝。

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

金·富斯蒂爾，匯豐銀行。

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple of weeks ago at an industry conference, you mentioned that the LNG market is getting more competitive and it's harder to make money in trading. I guess that's not exactly a secret, but I was wondering if you could provide any more color on this. And I was wondering, how much of the decline in LNG trading profits would you ascribe to heightened competition versus the more normalized conditions, be it lower volatility, lower spread, et cetera?

你好。午安.謝謝您回答我的問題。幾週前在一次行業會議上，您提到液化天然氣市場競爭日益激烈，交易賺錢變得越來越困難。我想這應該不算什麼秘密，但我還是想知道您能否提供更多細節。我想知道，您認為液化天然氣交易利潤的下降有多少是由於競爭加劇造成的，又有多少是由於市場環境趨於正常化（例如波動性降低、價差縮小等）造成的？

And then I also wanted to come back to the EU sustainability rules. I mean, I suppose let's see if the EU rules could be amended. But if they broadly stick, then how would you ensure compliance with the CSDDD rules in practice? And then hypothetically, what would be your options if some LNG supplies deemed to be non-compliant? Would you be able to redirect it? Thank you.

然後，我還想再談談歐盟永續發展規則。我的意思是，我想我們應該看看歐盟的規則是否可以修改。但如果這些規定大致上得到執行，那麼如何確保在實務上遵守 CSDDD 規則呢？那麼，假設某些液化天然氣供應被認定為不合規，您會有哪些選擇？能幫忙重定向一下嗎？謝謝。

Okay. First question. I mean, to be clear, I think we made a demonstration in New York, the message is not that we have a decline of LNG trading. We told you that there were exceptional trading profits in '21, '22, '23, and that we are back to a normal environment with lower volatility and that, by the way, the results of '25 on Integrated LNG are in line with '24. So I'm just that -- we don't benefit from the growth on this part at this stage. Later, we'll have a growth of volume, but this stage is stable.

好的。第一個問題。我的意思是，說清楚點，我認為我們在紐約進行了一次示威活動，傳遞的訊息並不是液化天然氣貿易正在下滑。我們告訴過你們，2021、2022、2023 年的交易利潤非常可觀，現在市場環境恢復正常，波動性降低。順便說一句，2025 年綜合液化天然氣業務的業績與 2024 年的業績一致。所以，我的情況就是這樣——現階段我們無法從這部分的成長中受益。之後銷量會成長，但目前處於穩定階段。

And in fact, they are quite related to the results of 2019 before this crisis. So I cannot -- what is also true is that you have observed, like me, that there are more trading hours, which came to this LNG business because maybe we were considering we were making good money. But today, answering your question, no, it's just -- my view is that, today, we have to -- we came back to, I would say, more standard revenues.

事實上，它們與2019年危機前的結果相當相關。所以我不能──還有一點是，你和我一樣也觀察到，交易時間變長了，這或許是因為我們認為我們賺了很多錢。但今天，回答你的問題，不，只是——我的觀點是，今天，我們必須——我們又回到了，我想說，更標準的收入模式。

And I hope, of course, the main growth for LNG trading profits from TotalEnergies will come from the growth of volume of assets. So we have a volume impact on our trading business, which will generate additional profits. We made a mistake when we were planning 2025 because we were thinking that we could replicate the last quarter '24 in full '25, which is not the case.

當然，我希望道達爾能源公司液化天然氣貿易利潤的主要成長將來自資產規模的成長。因此，交易量會對我們的交易業務產生影響，這將帶來額外的利潤。我們在製定 2025 年計畫時犯了一個錯誤，因為我們認為我們可以將 2024 年最後一個季度的情況完全複製到 2025 年，但事實並非如此。

So I have to -- and again, because that's clear that the volatility in '25 from the gas, the European gas price moved between $11 and $12 per million BTUs. So it's not a big volatility. By the way, I'm not unhappy because $11 or $12 per million BTUs from my Norwegian gas and my British gas and my Danish gas, it's a very good price. So I'm maybe -- so I mean, people -- we should not give an overweight to the trading business. Trading business is adding value, but the base business is, in fact, our upstream and our production.

所以我不得不——而且再次強調，因為很明顯，2025 年天然氣價格波動劇烈，歐洲天然氣價格在每百萬 BTU 11 美元到 12 美元之間波動。所以波動性並不大。順便說一句，我並不覺得不高興，因為我的挪威天然氣、英國天然氣和丹麥天然氣每百萬 BTU 11 或 12 美元的價格非常划算。所以我覺得——我的意思是，大家——我們不應該過度看重交易業務。貿易業務是創造價值的，但基礎業務實際上是我們的上游和生產。

So I'm happy to -- I prefer to gain $12 per million BTUs of profits on my North Sea gas and maybe a little lower volatility on the trading. So let's be -- we never -- maybe because there was exceptional years, incredible years, '22, '23, again, '21, '23, you consider it was the new normal. We never said it was a new normal. We even told you, be careful. There are exceptional results each time we -- exceptional means exceptional. So that's what I want to comment.

所以我很高興——我寧願從北海天然氣中每百萬 BTU 獲得 12 美元的利潤，並且交易波動性也稍微低一些。所以，讓我們——我們從來沒有——也許是因為有特殊的年份，不可思議的年份，例如 2022 年、2023 年，還有 2021 年、2023 年，你認為這就是新的常態。我們從未說過這是新的常態。我們都提醒過你，要小心。每次我們都能取得卓越的成果—卓越就是卓越。這就是我想說的話。

And again, I remind you and why I'm linking back to our growth volume is that the trading within TotalEnergies is trading around assets. It's an asset-based trading. We don't play casino. It's not the case. So that's the basis of what we do. There are more competitors. But again, we have more assets than others. So it will help our trading business.

我再次提醒大家，之所以再次提及我們的成長量，是因為 TotalEnergies 的交易是圍繞著資產進行的。這是一種基於資產的交易。我們不玩賭場遊戲。事實並非如此。這就是我們工作的基礎。競爭對手更多了。但是，我們擁有的資產比其他人多。所以這對我們的貿易業務有所幫助。

And I think this is the idea. This is fundamental idea of integration. It's because we have more assets, more volumes, but we have more medium- and long-term contracts with Asia. What we signed in the last year, these brand-related medium- and long-term contracts offer some optionalities to our traders. And the optionalities that we included in these contracts have a value. And this is why I'm linking that to my assets and my business. This is the base of it. And some competitors do not have the same assets and contracts.

我認為這就是關鍵所在。這是整合的基本想法。這是因為我們擁有更多的資產、更大的交易量，而且我們與亞洲簽訂了更多的中長期合約。我們去年簽署的這些與品牌相關的中長期合約為我們的交易員提供了一些選擇。我們在這些合約中加入的選擇權是有價值的。這就是我將其與我的資產和業務聯繫起來的原因。這是它的基礎。有些競爭對手並不擁有相同的資產和合約。

Then, about the corporate sustainability rules, I mean, the question is not to have energy non-compliant has not been -- the CS3D does not define the compliance. The CS3D is a matter of putting in place some rules, but you have to have a duty of vigilance on the way -- on the supply chain.

那麼，關於企業永續發展規則，我的意思是，問題不在於能源不合規——CS3D 並未定義合規性。CS3D 只是製定一些規則的問題，但在過程中，你必須對供應鏈保持警惕。

Some countries have been strong in the letter. I invite you to read the letter of the Secretary Wright and Minister Al-Kaabi, if you didn't read it. They sent a letter to the European leaders telling them if you keep that in place, we will not deliver -- we will not take the risk to deliver LNG to Europe. I would say, it's -- if we don't have LNG coming neither from the US nor from Qatar, we'll have -- my European North Sea assets are taking a lot of value.

有些國家在信中態度強硬。如果您還沒有讀過賴特秘書和卡比部長的信，我建議您讀一讀。他們致函歐洲領導人，表示如果你們繼續維持現狀，我們將不會交付──我們將不會冒險向歐洲交付液化天然氣。我想說的是──如果我們既沒有來自美國也沒有來自卡達的液化天然氣，那麼──我在歐洲北海的資產將會貶值很多。

So I would say it's not. I mean -- so it's not a matter of compliance, it's a matter of legal risk. Because in fact, why do they complain is that in the CS3D, if you were found guilty by a judge, your penalty could be up to 5% of your worldwide turnover, which is just crazy. So the sanction size is completely disproportionate to, in fact, a rule which is against -- of course, basically, we are all for human rights, but you can ask efforts to companies to control the supply chain, but we don't control everything.

所以我認為不是。我的意思是——所以這不是合規問題，而是法律風險問題。事實上，他們抱怨的原因是，在 CS3D 中，如果你被法官判有罪，你的罰款可能高達你全球營業額的 5%，這簡直太瘋狂了。因此，制裁的規模與這項實際上違反人權的規則完全不成比例——當然，基本上我們都支持人權，但你可以要求企業努力控制供應鏈，但我們不可能控制一切。

But if you transform, suppose, not enough vigilance in such a penalty risk, then it's completely disproportionate. And this is a call coming from these two countries. So for me -- so again, and I consider to be honest, that what we -- when we produce LNG in the US, as we are the largest exporter of US LNG, we are fully compliant with the duty of vigilance law with all what we produce in the US. In Qatar as well, by the way.

但是，如果你轉變觀念，比如說，對這種懲罰風險缺乏足夠的警惕，那麼懲罰就完全不成比例了。這是來自這兩個國家的呼籲。所以對我來說——再次強調，我認為坦白說，當我們在美國生產液化天然氣時，因為我們是美國最大的液化天然氣出口國，我們對我們在美國生產的所有產品都完全遵守盡職調查法。順便一提，卡達也是如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

馬特‧洛夫廷，摩根大通。

Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to follow up on your earlier comments on the Refining portfolio. 80% to 84% utilization in the fourth quarter looks towards the lower half of the historical range. Obviously, from a near-term perspective, planned turnarounds and maintenance need to be done and undertaken. But when you look forward into 2026, how do you see the normalized throughput of the business now? And has there been any deterioration in that normalized level versus what you saw and how you saw it, say, two, three years ago? Thank you.

謝謝您回答問題。我想就您之前關於煉油業務組合的評論做個補充說明。第四季80%至84%的利用率處於歷史區間的下半部。顯然，從近期來看，計劃內的檢修和維護工作需要進行。但展望 2026 年，您如何看待目前業務的正常吞吐量？與兩三年前你看到的相比，目前的正常水準是否有所下降？謝謝。

Yeah. I think -- so maybe we are cautious. Again, we were cautious on the $50 per tonne. Maybe the 80%, 84% is just -- as I told you, we have Antwerp and SATORP, which are two big machines we have entered into a large planned turnaround, so they execute. But of course, it has an impact on the global, I would say, delivery from our portfolio.

是的。我想——或許我們比較謹慎。我們再次對每噸 50 美元的價格持謹慎態度。也許 80%、84% 只是——正如我告訴你的，我們有安特衛普和 SATORP，這兩台大型機器我們已經投入到一項大規模的計劃性檢修中，所以它們正在執行。當然，這會對我們產品組合的全球交付產生影響。

You can keep -- if you take 82% this quarter, I think we were at 84%. Maybe the 82% is probably the mid-average of the guidance, probably the right one to take into account. But I told you that it will be more than compensated with capturing better margins on all the other assets. For next year, we are more in the range of 84%, 86%, I think, for our budget. But again, I didn't begin to look to what our colleagues are planning. So I'm waiting to see, but I think there are less turnarounds next year, so we should have -- from this perspective, it should be a better year.

你可以保留——如果你這季度接受 82% 的收益率，我認為我們之前是 84%。或許 82% 是指導意見的中位數，可能是應該考慮的正確數值。但我告訴過你，透過提高其他所有資產的利潤率，這將遠遠彌補損失。我認為，明年我們的預算應該在 84% 到 86% 之間。但是，我還是沒有開始去了解同事們的計畫。所以我還在觀望，但我認為明年的轉機可能會減少，所以從這個角度來看，明年應該會更好。

And again, as we mentioned to you, there were some, I would say, difficulties before the turnaround on Port Arthur. Turnaround is done, so we expect to have a better profitability. And on Donges, again, we intend to put into service these new units which will enhance the margins on Donges by beginning of 2026. So from this perspective, if the Refining margins remain at quite a good level, we will be able to capture even more than this year.

正如我們之前提到的，在亞瑟港局勢好轉之前，確實遇到了一些困難。扭虧為盈已經完成，因此我們預計盈利能力會有所提高。此外，在 Donges 電廠，我們計劃在 2026 年初投入使用這些新裝置，這將提高 Donges 電廠的利潤率。因此從這個角度來看，如果煉油利潤率保持在相當不錯的水平，我們將能夠獲得比今年更多的收益。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝你，派崔克。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫娜，伯恩斯坦。

Thank you very much. Good afternoon. My first question is on marketing, if I may, because your unit margins were up this quarter. And I wonder if you can talk around the drivers of that margin improvement, whether it is structural or temporary.

非常感謝。午安.如果可以的話，我的第一個問題是關於行銷的，因為你們本季的單位利潤率有所上升。我想知道您能否談談利潤率提高的驅動因素，無論是結構性的還是暫時性的。

And then my second question, I noted this quarter, you signed some partnerships on the deployment of AI and a global data platform. I obviously don't have the context of your ongoing digitalization effort. I wanted to ask whether it is correct to look at these partnerships perhaps as an effort to speed up and widen the digitalization you have been working on for a number of years. Thank you.

我的第二個問題是，我注意到本季你們簽署了一些關於部署人工智慧和全球資料平台的合作協議。我顯然不了解你們正在進行的數位化工作的具體情況。我想請問，將這些合作關係視為加快和擴大你們多年來一直在努力推進的數位化進程的一種嘗試，這種看法是否正確？謝謝。

Yeah. I'll take the second question first. As we told you, yeah, we have -- and I think it will be a topic on which we could focus more on what we are doing. In fact, since 2020, we put in place a digital factory in a bottom-up approach with 300, I would say, data experts or data scientists and at a very high level, a good team. But what we observed is that if we want to deploy these new technologies, which are speeding up on a worldwide basis, going from a bottom-up to scale up is difficult.

是的。我先回答第二個問題。正如我們之前所說，是的，我們有——而且我認為這將是一個我們可以更加關注我們正在做的事情的話題。事實上，自 2020 年以來，我們以自下而上的方式建立了一個數位工廠，擁有 300 名數據專家或數據科學家，而且從高層來看，這是一個非常優秀的團隊。但我們觀察到，如果我們想要部署這些正在全球加速發展的新技術，從下而上地擴大規模是很困難的。

So we decided that it's time now to have a broad effort, a worldwide effort on organizing all these data because there are plenty of data on platforms in refineries, but all that is not connected. And if you want to really, for example, enhance your linear program in refineries, the best would be to have access to all these data to develop new tools in order to enhance another additional percent of, I would say, use of the refinery and better margins.

因此，我們決定現在是時候開展一項廣泛的、全球性的努力來整理所有這些數據了，因為煉油廠平台上有大量的數據，但所有這些數據都沒有連接起來。例如，如果您真的想提高煉油廠的線性規劃效率，最好的方法是能夠獲得所有這些數據，從而開發新的工具，以進一步提高煉油廠的利用率和利潤率。

So we have engaged with two large programs, which are quite an investment, an investment on the platform with Emerson, which is called -- I don't remember the name now -- Inmation, in order to connect all these physical data to, I would say, a large database, all physically, and it will take 2.5 years, 3 years to deploy because we need to go on all the sites. We know where the data is, but we need to connect them and then they will be available.

因此，我們參與了兩個大型項目，這是一筆相當大的投資，其中一項是與艾默生合作的平台投資，該平台名為——我現在記不清名字了——Inmation，目的是將所有這些物理數據連接到一個大型數據庫，所有這些都是物理連接，部署需要 2.5 到 3 年的時間，因為我們需要在所有站點進行部署。我們知道資料在哪裡，但我們需要將它們連接起來，然後它們才能被使用。

And we have also engaged in a very large worldwide program on the E&P side with Cognite, which is, in advance, I would say, from digitalization, and we have made some different pilots with them. Now, we are all convinced. So another big program to equip -- to deploy this Cognite software, which obviously will help us to really accelerate the use of AI.

此外，我們還與 Cognite 開展了一項規模龐大的全球勘探開發項目，該項目可以說是在數位轉型之前進行的，我們已經與他們進行了一些不同的試點項目。現在，我們都信服了。因此，另一個需要部署 Cognite 軟體的大型項目，顯然將幫助我們真正加速人工智慧的應用。

So for me, 2025 will be the year where we have really decided to scale and to go from a scale and to take some large worldwide programs to give us the capacity to take the most of these new AI tools. It will take a few years to install all of that. But if we want to be efficient, and I'm sure -- and it's not cost cutting in our case. It's more additional revenues. If I can with advanced process control tools, thanks to AI, produce 1% more of all my oil fields and my refineries, I can tell you, it's quite a lot of free cash. So it's worth making the investments, and this is where -- what we have done.

所以對我來說，2025 年將是真正決定擴大規模、邁向更高規模並開展一些大型全球項目，從而使我們能夠充分利用這些新的人工智慧工具的一年。安裝所有這些設備需要幾年時間。但如果我們想要提高效率，而且我確信——就我們而言，這並不是削減成本。這將帶來更多額外收入。如果我借助人工智慧等先進製程控制工具，讓我的所有油田和煉油廠的產量提高 1%，我可以告訴你，那將是一筆相當可觀的免費現金。所以值得進行投資，而這正是我們所做的。

On marketing, so I think there is different drivers. But again, fundamentally, the strategy which is put in place in marketing is value over volume, which means not chasing the additional growth, even it's difficult for marketers. They love to show you more tonnes. But what we discovered is that it's quite mature markets. They are mature markets. Whatever in European market, it is mature, the lubricant market is mature. So it's very difficult to gain market share.

在行銷方面，我認為有不同的驅動因素。但從根本上講，行銷策略是價值重於數量，這意味著不要追求額外的成長，即使這對行銷人員來說很困難。他們喜歡向你展示更多的噸位。但我們發現，這些市場已經相當成熟了。這些都是成熟市場。歐洲市場已經成熟，潤滑油市場也已經成熟。因此，要取得市場佔有率非常困難。

The only way to do it is to do it at the expense of margins. And what we have decided is to enter into a policy, which is a bit higher margins and not less volumes, but not to sacrifice, I would say, the margins at the expense of the volume. And this is why, by the way, if you observe our results, we have sold our network in Germany and Netherlands and half of Belgium. There is not much impact.

唯一的辦法就是犧牲利潤。我們決定採取的政策是，在確保利潤率的前提下，不減少銷量，但也不會為了追求利潤率而犧牲銷售。順便一提，這就是為什麼，如果你看看我們的業績，你會發現我們已經在德國、荷蘭和比利時一半的地區售出了我們的網路。影響不大。

In fact, because we have managed to absorb it, I would say -- so it's also because fundamentally, in marketing, we have decided to divest or to stop -- not divest, but to stop a business, which was very low margin, which was, I would say, sharing some logistics assets with which we were creating a lot of pass-through volumes, but with a minimum margin. So this has been reduced because it was not really adding money. It was confusing a lot of people.

事實上，因為我們已經成功消化了它，我想說——這也是因為從根本上講，在行銷方面，我們決定剝離或停止——不是剝離，而是停止一項利潤率非常低的業務，這項業務，我想說，它共享了一些物流資產，我們用這些資產創造了大量的轉嫁量，但利潤率卻很低。所以這部分支出減少了，因為它實際上並沒有增加收入。這讓很多人感到困惑。

So structurally -- the answer to your question is that structurally, we are in a mode to enhance the margin on Marketing & Services. That's where we are. And this will continue. I hope I'm clear.

所以從結構上看——你問題的答案是，從結構上看，我們正處於提高行銷和服務利潤率的模式。這就是我們目前的處境。這種情況還會繼續下去。希望我表達清楚了。

Thank you, Patrick.

謝謝你，派崔克。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

克里斯多福‧庫普倫特，美國銀行。

Yeah. Thanks for taking my questions. Patrick, I wonder whether we could talk about another area of French creativity. There is an idea floating around that we should remunerate electricity or wholesale power prices differently. What can you tell us? Is current appetite for signing new PPAs, how has that market evolved considering that rather interesting regulatory backdrop? You've recently signed a project deal with RWE in France but also have some considerable CapEx left to go in Germany on the offshore wind front. So maybe you can put things into context and give us the risk reward behind taking that regulatory risk.

是的。謝謝您回答我的問題。派崔克，我想知道我們是否可以談談法國創造力的另一個領域。目前有一種觀點認為，我們應該採取不同的方式來支付電力或批發電力價格。您能告訴我們些什麼？目前市場對簽署新的購電協議（PPA）的需求如何？考慮到當前相當有趣的監管環境，該市場又是如何發展的？您最近與法國 RWE 公司簽署了一項專案協議，但在德國離岸風電領域還有一些相當大的資本支出需要投入。所以，或許您可以把事情放在具體的背景下，告訴我們承擔監管風險背後的風險報酬。

And then you've mentioned it already. I just wondered whether you could give us an update on how quickly we should expect news from Mozambique on the ground now that the force majeure has been lifted. Thank you.

而且你之前也提到過。我想問一下，既然不可抗力已經解除，我們多久才能收到來自莫三比克當地的消息？謝謝。

On Mozambique, again, we have lifted the force majeure. We are now expecting the government to approve our new plan and budget, and we are remobilizing the contractors in order to be able to execute the project within this schedule with time table of 2029. And that's where we are. So I think, consider we are moving on.

關於莫三比克，我們再次取消了不可抗力聲明。我們現在期待政府批准我們的新計劃和預算，我們正在重新調動承包商，以便能夠在 2029 年的時間表內執行該專案。這就是我們目前的處境。所以我覺得，我們應該繼續前進了。

On the first question, it's a complex question because I'm not sure to have fully understood. Let me be clear, I'm not in favor of regulations and regulatory approach. We are more merchant people. We like the market. So for us, that means that signing PPAs is the best way to commercialize, I would say, our assets.

第一個問題比較複雜，因為我不太確定自己是否完全理解了。我要明確表示，我並不贊成監管和監管方式。我們更像商人。我們喜歡這個市場。所以對我們來說，這意味著簽署購電協議是實現我們資產商業化的最佳方式。

And we know that we need -- in Europe, you need to sign when you develop -- I think you were referring to offshore wind. We signed a contract in France at $65 or EUR66 per megawatt hour, which is a contract, by the way, which the price can be adapted if the CapEx are higher. So the price -- the CapEx risk is, in fact, covered because we could -- not only we have given the price, but the CapEx linked to the price. So that's a protection. It's also partly inflated through the OpEx. And at this level, honestly, we can develop an offshore wind project in Europe, because it is projects where, in fact, the connection is developed and paid by the TSO, not by us. So we are only in charge of the plant itself.

我們知道我們需要——在歐洲，開發時需要簽署協議——我想你指的是離岸風電。我們在法國簽訂了一份合同，價格為每兆瓦時 65 美元或 66 歐元。順便說一句，這是一份合同，如果資本支出增加，價格可以進行調整。因此，價格——資本支出風險實際上是可以覆蓋的，因為我們不僅給出了價格，而且資本支出也與價格掛鉤。所以這是一種保護措施。營運支出也在一定程度上推高了價格。坦白說，在這個層面上，我們可以在歐洲開發離岸風電項目，因為這些項目的併網實際上是由輸電系統運營商 (TSO) 開發和支付的，而不是由我們支付的。所以我們只負責工廠本身。

But again, we follow that. I think today, there are many creativity there again in different circles. All that we are in a European market, European market is a unique open market, which are fundamentally driven by some market rules, in fact. And when I discuss with European authorities, I see little appetite in the commission to put into, I would say, even in some countries like Germany, we believe in the market to change the rule of this, I would say, electricity market. So again, that's a debate.

但我們再次遵循這項原則。我認為如今各個領域又湧現了許多創造力。我們身處歐洲市場，而歐洲市場是一個獨特的開放市場，它從根本上來說是由一些市場規則所驅動的。當我與歐洲當局討論時，我發現委員會幾乎沒有意願改變電力市場的規則，我想說，即使在德國這樣的一些國家，我們也相信市場的力量。所以，這又是一個爭論不休的問題。

And you know, by the way, in France, the same people who were complaining about the famous system of nuclear commercialization, which was called ARENH, two years ago now are complaining of the new system. So people will never be happy. What they want is electricity for free, but that's difficult.

順便一提，你知道嗎，在法國，兩年前抱怨著名的核能商業化體系（即 ARENH）的那些人，現在又在抱怨新的體係了。所以人們永遠不會快樂。他們想要的是免費用電，但這很難做到。

At the end, we need to invest. And if everything is too much regulated, it will be against investment, and Europe desperately needs to invest more in renewable gas-fired power plants, grids, if we want to ensure security of supply. But the reality -- so you cannot get both. So I think I would say I trust there again the political leaders, which are spending a lot of time on this energy story to take the right decision and not to be complacent.

最終，我們需要投資。如果一切都受到過多的監管，就會阻礙投資，而歐洲迫切需要增加對再生能源燃氣發電廠和電網的投資，以確保能源供應安全。但現實是──你不可能兩者兼得。所以我認為，我再次相信那些在能源議題上投入大量時間的政治領導人，相信他們會做出正確的決定，而不是自滿。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP.

Lucas Herrmann，法國巴黎銀行。

Yeah. Patrick, thanks very much. And another slightly generic question, but I just wanted to ask for your sort of thoughts on the one part of the complex, which is really having a difficult time, Chemicals, and the extent to which when you talk within -- when you look at the industry, look at where margins are, you're starting to see better signs of movement to try and restructure, not necessarily your own business but business across the industry so that we might actually move to a place where profits start to improve.

是的。派崔克，非常感謝。還有一個比較籠統的問題，我想問您對這個複雜行業中目前處境艱難的化學工業有什麼看法。當您在業內討論，觀察整個行業的利潤率時，您是否開始看到一些跡象表明，企業正在嘗試進行重組，這不一定是您自己的業務，而是整個行業的業務，以便我們能夠真正走向利潤開始改善的道路？

And as ever, I mean, if you could give us some indication of the extent to which the associates line within -- well, the profit within the Refining & Chemicals business, what proportion of profit actually comes from Chemicals now given just how difficult the environment is? Thanks very much.

和以往一樣，我的意思是，如果您能給我們一些關於煉油和化工業務利潤中，尤其是化工業務利潤佔比的指標，考慮到當前環境的嚴峻性，您能否告訴我們化工業務實際貢獻了多少利潤？非常感謝。

Okay. I'm not a chemical company. We are a refining and petrochemical company, and we make crack ethylene and polyethylene basics. So I'm not --

好的。我不是化工企業。我們是一家煉油和石化公司，生產裂解乙烯和聚乙烯基礎原料。所以我不是--

Sorry, Patrick. That's what I'm referring to.

抱歉，派崔克。我指的就是這個。

No. But just to tell you, the truth is that you know the situation. The situation is that, in fact, in terms of cracking capacity, ethylene capacity, China, in the last five years, went from 50 million tonnes of cracker to 100 million tonnes of cracker. And so they are, in fact, almost self-sufficient. So if they were moving from a large importing country to almost self-sufficient, even exporting. So of course, that changed the world patterns.

不。但說實話，你其實知道情況。事實上，就裂解能力和乙烯產能而言，中國在過去五年中，裂解能力從5,000萬噸/裂解裝置成長到1億噸/裂解裝置。因此，它們實際上幾乎可以自給自足。所以，如果他們從大型進口國轉變為幾乎自給自足，甚至出口。所以，這當然改變了世界格局。

By the way, Chinese companies also suffer from the situation, but other places suffer from the situation. For me, I've always been very clear with you. If you want to invest in petrochemicals, you have the fundamental matter or fundamental competitive factor is feedstock. Either you are an ethane, chip LPGs in the US or in the Middle East, or you will face difficulties. So that's the situation.

順便說一句，中國企業也受到這種情況的影響，但其他地方的企業也受到這種情況的影響。對我來說，我一直都跟你很清楚。如果你想投資石化產業，那麼最根本的問題或最根本的競爭因素就是原料。要嘛你在美國或中東從事乙烷、晶片液化石油氣業務，要嘛你將面臨困難。情況就是這樣。

So we know that our naphtha crackers in Europe are facing competition, which is super difficult, either from the US crackers or from Middle East. By the way, TotalEnergies, since I'm CEO, we have invested in two crackers -- one in Port Arthur with Borealis, one with Amiral in Saudi Arabia -- so we're consistent. That is what I think fundamentally. And we are shutting down some crackers like the one we have just decided in Antwerp. So that's my view.

所以我們知道，我們在歐洲的石腦油裂解裝置正面臨來自美國或中東的激烈競爭，這非常困難。順便一提，TotalEnergies，自從我擔任執行長以來，我們已經投資了兩座裂解裝置——一座是與 Borealis 在阿瑟港合作的，另一座是與 Amiral 在沙烏地阿拉伯合作的——所以我們一直保持著穩步發展。這就是我最根本的想法。我們正在關閉一些非法入侵點，例如我們剛剛在安特衛普關閉的那家。這就是我的看法。

To come back on the proportion, I don't know, it's not big. It's not good. I have no miracle recipe compared to my competitors on this one. But again, it's not a major part of our downstream results and cash flow. So most is coming from refining and trading more than chemicals. But again, it's part of the integration. When the margins are good, we are happy to capture them. But again, the fundamentals, let's invest in the US and in the Middle East. That's all.

至於比例問題，我不知道，反正不大。這不太好。在這方面，我沒有什麼比競爭對手更神奇的配方。但再次強調，這並不是我們下游業績和現金流的主要組成部分。所以大部分收入來自煉油和貿易，而不是化學產品。但話說回來，這也是整合的一部分。利潤空間大的時候，我們樂於從中獲利。但話說回來，從基本面來看，我們應該投資美國和中東。就這樣。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Peter Low, Rothschild & Co. Redburn.

Peter Low，羅斯柴爾德公司，雷德伯恩。

Hi. Thanks. The first was just on Integrated Power. The ROACE has been below 10% for a few quarters now. How confident are you of hitting your 12% target? And really, what are the steps to get it kind of up to that level over the coming years?

你好。謝謝。第一部分只涉及整合電源。ROACE 已經連續幾季低於 10%。你對實現 12% 的目標有多大信心？那麼，在未來幾年內，究竟需要採取哪些步驟才能使其達到那個水準呢？

And then, perhaps just a follow-up on the kind of proposed EU ban on Russian LNG imports from 2027. I think you said in the past, you'd expect you'd be able to divert your Yamal cargoes to alternative markets outside of the EU. Is that still the base case? And what do you expect to happen? Thanks.

然後，或許可以就歐盟提案從 2027 年起禁止進口俄羅斯液化天然氣一事進行後續討論。我想你以前說過，你希望能夠將來自亞馬爾半島的貨物轉移到歐盟以外的其他市場。這仍然是基本情況嗎？你預期會發生什麼事？謝謝。

First question, I think Stéphane Michel in New York gave you some answers to that. We never told you we will hit 12% tomorrow. We told you it's a five-year plan going, by the way, from 10% to 11% from 11% to 12%.

第一個問題，我想紐約的史特凡‧米歇爾已經給了你一些答案。我們從未告訴你們我們明天就能達到12%。我們告訴過你們，這是一個五年計劃，從 10% 到 11%，再從 11% 到 12%。

Part of it, as I told you, is that today, we have a sort of burden on our capital employed because we have, I mean, acquired a large pipeline of projects, which are, of course, non-productive, I would say, capital employed assets which will be because we continue to grow. We have a growth of 20% per year, and we will execute, which will, of course, as we don't intend to make large M&A on this part, transform, I would say, our non-productive assets into productive assets. So part of it is there.

正如我之前所說，部分原因是，如今我們投入的資本承受著一定的負擔，因為我們已經收購了大量項目，這些項目當然是非生產性的，我認為是資本佔用資產，因為我們將繼續發展。我們每年成長 20%，我們將執行這一目標，當然，因為我們不打算在這方面進行大規模的併購，我們將把非生產性資產轉化為生產性資產。所以一部分在那裡。

Then the second part -- that's 1%. The other percent will come from, I would say, rationalization, better use of the assets, industrialization, and this is what we are doing. We also, I think, framed in New York a clear road map by concentrating most of the investments of Integrated Power on some major markets, the oil and gas countries, which are in E&P. And then the rest, we are clear, but where we don't see potential to contribute above 12%, there is no future for them in the portfolio. I mean, so that's -- I would say, in a way, what we told you, it is a recipe to go to 12%. So honestly, today, we are a little lower than 10%, but we will recover from it.

然後是第二部分——佔1%。剩下的百分之一將來自於合理化、更好地利用資產、工業化，而這正是我們正在做的。我認為，我們在紐約制定了一個清晰的路線圖，將綜合電力公司的大部分投資集中在一些主要市場，即石油和天然氣國家，這些國家都處於勘探和生產階段。至於其他股票，我們很清楚，但如果我們認為它們沒有潛力貢獻超過 12% 的收益，那麼它們在投資組合中就沒有未來。我的意思是，所以——我想說，從某種意義上說，我們告訴你們的，就是達到 12% 的配方。說實話，今天我們的轉換率略低於10%，但我們會恢復的。

And don't forget that the contribution from farm-downs, they will come in fourth quarter. So all that will give you color. But I would say therefore, we will raise the 10%, and you know it's a five-year journey, but I'm happy with the development of this business. The next target is to be for me net cash positive. As soon as we are net cash positive, I'm sure that the valuation of this part of the business will be better. Because when I will tell you this business is contributing to your dividend, it's a way to have a better leverage on this business. And we plan '28, if we can do '27, we are working on that.

別忘了，農場降級的收益將在第四季到帳。所以所有這些都會帶給你色彩。因此，我認為我們會籌集 10% 的資金，你知道這是一個五年的過程，但我對公司的發展感到滿意。我的下一個目標是實現淨現金流為正。一旦我們實現淨現金流為正，我相信這部分業務的估值會更好。因為當我告訴你這項業務正在為你的分紅做出貢獻時，這就能讓你更好地利用這項業務。我們計劃參加 2028 年的活動，如果 2027 年能參加的話，我們正在努力。

EU ban on Russian LNG, honestly, there has been a new regulation which needs to have some clarification because there is some language there we need to understand what it means exactly. By the way, when EU banned oil in 2022, '23, it was the exact situation. There was a regulation and the LNG regulation is a copy-paste of the old one. There was what they call FAQ, where you need to have answers to clarify what is the real scope of ban. For sure, the ban is not to bring any more Russian LNG in Europe, but we want to be sure that the ban is not larger than that, so before to answer your question.

歐盟禁止俄羅斯液化天然氣，說實話，這項新規需要一些澄清，因為其中的一些措辭我們需要確切地了解其含義。順便說一句，歐盟在 2022 年和 2023 年禁止石油進口時，情況正是如此。之前有一項法規，而液化天然氣法規只是對舊法規的複製貼上。他們有一個所謂的常見問題解答，你需要從中找到答案來澄清禁令的真正範圍。可以肯定的是，禁令並非禁止將更多俄羅斯液化天然氣運往歐洲，但我們希望確保禁令的範圍沒有超出這個限度，所以在回答你的問題之前，我們需要先確認一下。

And otherwise, yes, in this case, we have a commitment. If there is no further, I would say, ban, I cannot choose a force majeure to cancel the contract. If I don't have force majeure, I am committed to offtake some cargoes. We are looking to that. Precisely today, our lawyers are working, to be honest. Because of course, for us, the rule is to be sanction-compliant, to be clear. So our lawyers are working on it.

否則，是的，在這種情況下，我們有承諾。如果沒有其他理由，我會說，禁止，我不能以不可抗力為由取消合約。如果沒有不可抗力因素，我必須接收部分貨物。我們正期待著這一點。坦白說，我們的律師今天正在工作。當然，對我們來說，規則就是遵守制裁，這一點很清楚。我們的律師正在處理此事。

It's a fresh regulation, so I don't have the full clarity. And I don't want to make more answering longer because I could say something which could become wrong if the lawyers -- and again, if we have to be -- we are always, at the Executive Committee, on the cautiousness side, I would say, from this perspective. And so I'm waiting to see the report and to understand exactly the scope of the new EU regulation.

這是一項新規定，所以我還不完全清楚。我不想讓回答變得更長，因為我可能會說一些如果律師——再說一遍，如果我們必須——就執行委員會而言，我們總是比較謹慎的話，從這個角度來說，我想說。所以我正在等待這份報告，以便確切了解歐盟新法規的範圍。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng，加拿大豐業銀行。

Hi. Thank you Good morning, or good afternoon, Patrick and Jean-Pierre. Two questions. I want to go back, Patrick, in your answer to the question of adoption of AI. You say there is fairly sizable investment. Can you quantify how big is the investment over the next couple of years and whether you have sufficient talent within your organization to really adopt or that you need to go out to hire? And at this point, it seems like it's pretty difficult to get the good talent in the AI adoption area. And what is your target that what you aim to get from AI over the next, say, call it, five years?

你好。謝謝。早上好，或者下午好，帕特里克和讓-皮埃爾。兩個問題。派崔克，我想回到你對人工智慧普及問題的回答。你說這筆投資相當可觀。您能否量化一下未來幾年的投資規模，以及您的組織內部是否有足夠的人才來真正採用這項技術，還是需要對外招募？目前看來，在人工智慧應用領域找到優秀人才似乎相當困難。那麼，在未來五年內，您希望透過人工智慧實現什麼目標？

The second question is -- yeah, the second question is on Iraq.

第二個問題是──是的，第二個問題是關於伊拉克的。

No. Move on with your second question, sorry.

不。抱歉，請繼續問你的第二個問題。

Okay. Sorry, Patrick. Second question is Iraq. Can you tell us that how is the situation on the ground? I suppose that the security is good enough for you to deploy your people. So what is the bottleneck or the barrier for Iraq to significantly increase their production at this point? You and some of your peers are rushing in and signing contracts. And if you think that those contracts, the terms are good, is there a concern that Iraq could turn into a major production growth area which, in turn, is going to depress oil prices over the next several years? So just want to hear how you think about that. Thank you.

好的。抱歉，派崔克。第二個問題是伊拉克。您能告訴我們當地的情況如何嗎？我想這裡的安全措施應該足以讓你們部署人員了。那麼，伊拉克目前大幅提高產量所面臨的瓶頸或障礙是什麼？你和你的一些同齡人正爭先恐後地簽約。如果你認為這些合約的條款很好，那麼是否有人擔心伊拉克可能會成為主要的石油生產成長區，從而在未來幾年內壓低油價？所以我想聽聽你對此有何看法。謝謝。

Okay. First question, AI is a program I mentioned that represents more or less EUR300 million, so $350 million, I would say, worldwide. So it's quite an investment in these data platforms at the worldwide level, first comment.

好的。第一個問題，我提到的AI項目在全球價值約3億歐元，也就是3.5億美元。所以，這是對全球這些數據平台的相當大的投資，這是第一點評論。

Second comment, in terms of people, we have some assistance from the Emerson guys, AspenTech, or from Cognite. But remember that we have a digital factory with 300 people. And of course, we are using part of these people to help to deploy the program. They are there. They are available. They know about it. We have built these competencies in the last five years, the second answer.

第二點，就人員而言，我們得到了艾默生、AspenTech 或 Cognite 的一些幫助。但請記住，我們是一家擁有 300 名員工的數位化工廠。當然，我們也利用了這些人中的一部分來幫助部署該計劃。它們就在那裡。它們有售。他們知道這件事。第二個答案是：我們在過去五年培養了這些能力。

The third answer is that there is a nice country in order to get access to good AI competencies with not so high cost, which is called India. So it's also a way for us to, in fact, grow in digital. For us, we are looking today to -- we need to grow, I would say, our technical competencies in terms of people to have more resources in the side of electricity of power and in the area of digital. And today, we are seriously thinking to enhance or to grow our presence there, and we speak about -- we are discussing about a competence center in India. It's part, by the way, of our way as well to contribute to the, I would say, cash saving program that we mentioned. So this is the area.

第三個答案是，要以不太高的成本獲得良好的人工智慧能力，有一個不錯的國家，那就是印度。所以，這其實也是我們在數位化領域發展的一種方式。對我們來說，我們今天需要做的是——我認為，我們需要提升我們的技術能力，包括人才，以便在電力和數位領域擁有更多資源。今天，我們正在認真考慮加強或擴大我們在那裡的業務，我們正在談論——我們正在討論在印度建立一個能力中心。順便說一句，這也是我們為我們之前提到的現金儲蓄計劃做出貢獻的方式之一。這就是該區域。

So I know it's a point. But in fact, what I've observed is that we have been able to attract people in this field with a reasonable price because we offer them some real, I would say, use case. We have a very interesting use case. In the field of energy, you can use AI in many areas, so it's good.

所以我知道這是一個關鍵點。但實際上，我觀察到，我們能夠以合理的價格吸引這個領域的人才，是因為我們為他們提供了一些真正的、可以說的實際應用案例。我們有一個非常有趣的應用案例。在能源領域，人工智慧可以應用於很多方面，所以它很有用。

Iraq, on the ground, it's okay. Otherwise, I mean, we just signed the full contract -- EPC contracts. If we were in doubt, we will not have done it. Honestly, in the Basra area, the situation is good. I can speak only for the areas where we are. We have deliberately located our teams in the south of the country in the Basra area because it's a more, I would say, united area -- unified area from, I would say, in terms of Iraq. There are other areas that I would be more careful to be clear. But in our area, we are fine and no barrier. But the barrier partly is still security because you cannot -- what I say for Basra is maybe not true for the whole country, to be honest, and it's not true.

伊拉克地面上，一切都還好。否則，我的意思是，我們剛剛簽署了完整的合約——EPC合約。如果我們心存疑慮，我們就不會去做這件事。說實話，巴士拉地區的狀況還不錯。我只能代表我們所在地區發言。我們特意將團隊設在伊拉克南部的巴士拉地區，因為那裡是一個更團結的地區——就伊拉克而言，這是一個更團結的地區。還有一些方面，我需要更加謹慎地澄清。但在我們這裡，一切都很好，沒有任何障礙。但部分障礙仍然是安全問題，因為你不能——老實說，我對巴士拉的說法可能並不適用於整個國家，而且這也不是事實。

And second, in fact, you need investment. And investments, you know the issue for Iraq, and again, I'm happy to have been the big company which came back first. But we went there in '21, we finalized the contract in '23. We are FID all the phases in '25, and we'll produce in '28, '29. So the cycle is eight years. So I think we are maybe a little slow. I'm not sure because I can tell you -- all that is, in fact, from my point of view as a CEO, quite a remarkable journey in a new country. So I'm very happy with all the work the teams have done. I contributed myself by supporting them many times there.

其次，實際上，你需要投資。至於投資，你知道伊拉克的問題，再次強調，我很高興我們是第一個回到伊拉克的大公司。但我們在 2021 年去了那裡，2023 年最終敲定了合約。我們將在 2025 年完成所有階段的最終投資決策 (FID)，並將在 2028 年和 2029 年投入生產。所以這個週期是八年。所以我覺得我們可能有點慢。我不太確定，因為我可以告訴你——事實上，從我作為執行長的角度來看，這在一個新的國家是一段相當非凡的旅程。我對團隊所做的一切工作都非常滿意。我曾多次在那裡為他們提供支持，並盡了自己的一份心力。

And I can't -- so when people think today that, yes, there is a potential in Iraq, it's clear, but it will not depress oil prices before many years. So it's good for the country. And again, the country -- and I know what will happen if there is more companies to come, the temptation will be to decrease the margins. And then again, it will not work. So that's the history. I hope the country has taken some lessons of what happened from 2010 to 2020. If we don't have the right reward for the risk we take, there is no investment. So that's a question of capital allocation.

我不能——所以當人們今天認為，是的，伊拉克有潛力，這很明顯，但這不會在很多年內壓低油價。所以這對國家有好處。再說一遍，這個國家——我知道如果以後有更多公司進入，將會發生什麼，那就是降低利潤率。然而，這樣做仍然行不通。這就是事情的來龍去脈。我希望國家能從2010年至2020年發生的事情中學到一些東西。如果我們承擔的風險得不到相應的回報，那就談不上投資。所以，這是一個資本配置的問題。

So yes, and that's why, by the way, to answer to your question, to be clear, if we decided to move to come back in Iraq in 2021, but we see quite a long perspective. And in my plan, in my view, Iraq will be a growth area for TotalEnergies beyond 2030, and we will work on other projects. So that's what I'm thinking. So I don't see an impact on the short term or short medium term.

所以，是的，這就是為什麼，順便回答你的問題，說清楚一點，如果我們決定在 2021 年搬回伊拉克，但我們著眼於相當長遠的未來。在我看來，根據我的計劃，伊拉克將是道達爾能源在 2030 年以後的成長區域，我們將開展其他項目。我就是這麼想的。因此，我認為短期內或中短期內不會受到影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Henri Patricot, UBS.

亨利‧帕特里科特，瑞銀集團。

Yes. Hello, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Just two on the topic of exploration. I think you have a new Head of Exploration since the start of the month. And I was wondering if we should expect any changes in your approach to exploration? And also on that topic, can you give us an update on the latest plans for exploration in Namibia and South Africa in the next few months? Thank you.

是的。大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。關於探險的話題，只有兩點。我認為你們從月初開始就有了新的勘探主管。我想知道，你們的勘探方法是否會有任何變化？另外，關於這個主題，您能否向我們介紹未來幾個月在納米比亞和南非的最新勘探計劃？謝謝。

Okay. Exploration, I've been consistent since I was CEO, I think there is one thing which did not change, which is the budget for exploration. It was $800 million to $1 billion. I put it as a sort of rule of the game when I became CEO, because strongly, I think it's not because you spend more but you find more. At a certain point, you need to be efficient and oblige your exploration team to take searching.

好的。自從我擔任執行長以來，我在勘探方面一直堅持不變，我認為有一件事沒有改變，那就是勘探預算。金額在8億至10億美元之間。當我擔任執行長時，就把這當作一條遊戲規則，因為我堅信，重要的不是你投入更多，而是你找到更多。在某個階段，你需要提高效率，並要求你的勘探團隊進行搜尋。

I'm happy, by the way, at the way Kevin has led this team during the last 10 years. He became Exploration Team Manager and Vice President almost the same time. He has, I would say, developed some ideas. The thing is, it is a long cycle in exploration. So when he told us one year ago that he has tried to do something else, it was fine for us because we thought it was the right time to renew, in fact, having the proper approach. Because again, exploration is different business. Again, it's not a matter of dollars. It's a matter of ideas of which to approach.

順便說一句，我對凱文過去十年領導這支球隊的方式感到滿意。他幾乎同時擔任了勘探隊經理和副總裁。我認為他已經形成了一些想法。問題在於，探索是一個漫長的周期。所以，當他一年前告訴我們他嘗試去做其他事情時，我們覺得沒問題，因為我們認為這是重新開始的合適時機，實際上，我們採取了正確的方法。因為勘探是另一回事。再說一遍，這不是錢的問題。這取決於我們採取何種思路。

I'm very happy to have welcomed in the company Nicola Mavilla, which is coming from a successful exploration company. He has, of course, had different -- himself has been educated in different environments of new ideas. He will have -- I told him that he's free to do and to let the team. It's not a one-man show exploration. It's a team building, quite a lot of people.

我非常高興地歡迎尼古拉·馬維拉加入公司，他來自一家成功的勘探公司。當然，他的經歷各不相同——他自己曾在不同的環境中接受過新想法的教育。他會有的——我告訴他，他可以自由行動，讓團隊去做。這不是一個人的探索之旅。這是一場團隊建立活動，參與人數相當多。

To take the risk to explore, you need to build some consensus, but you can drive your people in different, I would say, directions in terms of concepts and being creative. So I think it's very good. I hope and I'm convinced that Nicola will be able to have the same success that we had with Kevin in the last 10 years. But it's not a matter of money. It's a matter of ideas and then to make choices.

要承擔探索的風險，你需要達成一些共識，但你可以引導你的團隊朝著不同的方向發展，我認為，這體現在概念和創造力方面。所以我認為這非常好。我希望並且相信，尼古拉能夠像凱文過去十年一樣取得同樣的成功。但這並非金錢的問題。關鍵在於提出想法，然後做出選擇。

And by the way, you noticed that in the last quarter, we have been active on taking some licenses back in Nigeria, which has been unexplored for more than 10 years. It's a pity. It's probably the most potential delta -- it's probably the most prolific delta in Africa. So no license were awarded.

順便一提，您可能也注意到，在上個季度，我們一直在積極地收回尼日利亞的一些許可證，這些許可證已經超過 10 年沒有被開發過了。真遺憾。它可能是最有潛力的三角洲——它可能是非洲物產最豐富的三角洲。因此，沒有頒發許可證。

We are happy to have the first ones, two IOCs. We went as well to a country like Liberia. It's a new one. And Congo is more mature, but we managed to get a license on which our explorers were excited. I hope they were fine. We'll have a nice gift for Christmas, we'll see. And again, we'll continue to explore in other countries.

我們很高興獲得了前兩個國際奧委會的獎項。我們也去過像利比里亞這樣的國家。這是個新玩意兒。剛果的開發成熟度更高，但我們還是成功地獲得了許可證，這讓我們的探險家們興奮不已。希望他們平安無事。我們會收到一份不錯的聖誕禮物，到時候再說吧。我們將繼續探索其他國家。

And so exploration, I heard during the [roadshow] that it seems that some companies are rediscovering exploration. For Total, we never give up on exploration. I always consider it as part of the value creation. And again, a lesson to my colleague, not because you spend more, when you will find more. If you spend more, you actually take more risk. And if you take more risk, you have more disappointing wells. So it's a question of finding the right metrics. And I think it's good for an IOC, a major like us, when we can drill 20, 25 wells per year. That's good. That's enough to find some nice wells.

所以，在巡迴展期間，我聽說有些公司似乎正在重新發現探索的意義。對道達爾來說，我們永不放棄探索。我始終將其視為價值創造的一部分。再次提醒我的同事，不要因為花更多錢就放棄，而是要找到更多。花的錢越多，實際上承擔的風險就越大。風險越大，失望的油井就越多。所以關鍵在於找到合適的衡量標準。我認為對於像我們這樣的大型國際石油公司來說，每年能鑽20到25口井是件好事。那挺好的。這足以找到一些不錯的水井了。

Namibia, South Africa -- Namibia, we have some exploration to continue to do, and we look to priorities also to develop business. And South Africa, if you follow, like me, the news, there is a legal context, which seems to be more complex than in other countries. Each time we want to drill, we need to go to court. It's a little difficult. But I think that the South African government has made some public statements that they want to find a way to go to ease the exploration.

納米比亞、南非——在納米比亞，我們還有一些勘探工作需要繼續進行，我們也著眼於發展業務的優先事項。如果你跟我一樣關注南非的新聞，你會發現那裡的法律環境似乎比其他國家更複雜。每次我們想進行演習，都需要去法院。這有點難。但我認為南非政府已經公開表示，他們希望找到一種方法來簡化勘探流程。

So we hope we will manage because, of course, for us, it's important. We cannot explore -- we cannot spend money in a geography if we have to face permanently courts and the permitting becomes really too complex. And because it's not only drilling one or two or three exploration wells, when it will be to develop. And we explore to develop. We don't explore just to find oil. So we need honestly, on the South Africa side, I hope the government will take the right decision as soon as possible.

所以我們希望能夠成功，因為這對我們來說當然很重要。如果我們必須不斷面對法庭，而且許可審批流程變得過於複雜，我們就無法進行勘探——我們不能在某個地區投入資金。而且，這不僅僅是鑽探一兩口或三口勘探井，而是要進行開發。我們透過探索來發展。我們進行勘探不僅僅是為了尋找石油。所以說實話，就南非方面而言，我希望政府能盡快做出正確的決定。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman，TD Cowen。

Yeah, hey. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask firstly on CapEx trajectory. And it looks like organic CapEx has been a bit volatile the past few quarters. I'm wondering what's driving that quarter-to-quarter volatility. We've seen some other peers that have more stable CapEx that kind of peaks in 4Q. So wondering, moving forward, is this level that you're at now a better go-forward pace to consider? Or should we expect more volatility quarter to quarter?

是啊，嘿。謝謝您回答我的問題。我首先想問一下資本支出軌跡。過去幾個季度，有機資本支出似乎波動較大。我想知道是什麼因素導致了這種季度間的波動。我們看到一些同業公司的資本支出更加穩定，通常在第四季達到高峰。所以我想知道，展望未來，您目前所處的階段是否是一個更合適的前進步伐？或者我們應該預期季度間的波動會更大？

And then my second one is just on the ramp-up in production next year. You've previously guided to a reduction in reinvestment rates in 2027 which, I suppose, implies higher cash flow ramping at some point next year along with new production coming online. So how should we think about that production and cash flow ramp next year and into '27? Is it back half weighted? Is it 4Q weighted? Just looking for kind of the arc of that growth. Thanks.

我的第二個專案明年就要開始量產了。您之前曾預測 2027 年再投資率將會下降，我猜這意味著明年某個時候現金流將會大幅成長，同時新的生產也將上線。那麼，我們該如何看待明年以及到 2027 年的生產和現金流成長呢？後半部是重心後移的嗎？這是按第四季加權的嗎？我只是想了解這種成長的大致軌跡。謝謝。

Jason, you are very quarterly driven there in your questions. But my commitment to you is the commitment of the company is the annual budget of CapEx. And by the way, it's an annual budget of net CapEx. It's organic CapEx plus acquisition, minus sales, minus divestments.

傑森，你的問題很有季度導向。但我對你們的承諾，就是公司對你們的承諾，就是年度資本支出預算。順便說一下，這是年度淨資本支出預算。這是有機資本支出加上收購，減去銷售，減去資產剝離。

I think we have a long strong track record of being compliant with our annual budget of CapEx. I think since I've been CEO, I think, 10 years in a row, you don't see that we have not respected the CapEx budget, the annual CapEx budget. And again, what we told you today, and what we said at the beginning of the year, it will be $17 billion, $17.5 billion. And I can tell you, we'll land in $17 billion, $17.5 billion.

我認為我們在遵守年度資本支出預算方面有著長期良好的記錄。我認為自從我擔任執行長以來，已經連續10年了，你們看不到我們違背了資本支出預算，也就是年度資本支出預算。再次重申我們今天告訴大家的，以及年初我們說過的話，那就是170億美元，175億美元。我可以告訴你，我們最終會達到 170 億美元，175 億美元。

As we told you that the net acquisition is expected to be at $1.5 billion, you can calculate yourself the organic CapEx for the fourth quarter. I don't follow honestly the stability of the organic CapEx two quarters. It depends on some projects when you put into production as we have done this year, old Mero in Brazil, Tyra in Denmark, Ballymore in the US. That means that this quarter, there was a lot of CapEx and then it's decreasing because you have put into production and some of our CapEx, some of our projects are ramping up. So it just -- so I'm not at all -- I have no KPIs to have a stable quarterly organic CapEx, to be honest.

正如我們之前所說，預計淨收購額將達到 15 億美元，您可以自行計算第四季的有機資本支出。說實話，我不太了解過去兩季有機資本支出的穩定性。這取決於一些項目何時投入生產，就像我們今年所做的那樣，例如巴西的老 Mero、丹麥的 Tyra、美國的 Ballymore。這意味著本季資本支出很大，然後由於部分資本支出項目投入生產，部分資本支出項目正在逐步推進，因此資本支出正在減少。所以，說實話，我根本沒有——我沒有任何關鍵績效指標來保證穩定的季度有機資本支出。

At the end of the day, my KPI is to be sure that we are within the annual budget. And if we can be a little lower, I'm happy. But sometimes I'm not happy because sometimes it means that some projects are late. So I prefer to really be in our budget. So first point. So sorry to disappoint, but it's not a major issue. I mean, to be clear, we are not in a company which makes short-cycle CapEx permanently, where you can maybe make less volatility.

歸根結底，我的關鍵績效指標是確保我們在年度預算範圍內完成工作。如果能再低一點，我就很滿意了。但有時我會不高興，因為這意味著有些項目會延期。所以我比較傾向嚴格控制在預算之內。首先，我要說第一點。很抱歉讓您失望了，但這並不是什麼大問題。我的意思是，說清楚點，我們不是一家長期進行短期資本支出（CapEx）的公司，所以波動性可能較小。

The second one, I think the same answer to Lydia, if I remember the beginning of the first question I have. You have to wait for 2026. Let's keep -- you have to be a little patient until February. We'll give you more color. It's clear that, again, we gave you a point, I think, in the chart of 2027 when we speak about reinvestment rate. So we told you that in '27, yes, I remember, the reinvestment rate will go down from 70% to something like 50%. It was a chart which was in the New York slide deck.

第二個問題，我想答案應該要跟莉迪亞的一樣，如果我沒記錯的話，我的第一個問題的開頭是這樣的。你得等到2026年。咱們繼續——你得耐心等到二月。我們將為您帶來更多色彩。很明顯，我們再次在 2027 年的圖表中，在談到再投資率時，已經給出了一個參考點。所以我們告訴過你們，在 2027 年，是的，我記得，再投資率將從 70% 下降到 50% 左右。那是一張圖表，出自紐約的幻燈片簡報。

And that's the reality. And it's coming from both. It's coming from, on one side, higher cash flows because we are delivering along the three years. So let's be clear, the figure of '27 means by end of '27. So it's a three-year decrease. It's not beginning, I don't know which quarter. And it's an annual one. So it's at the end, to be clear. It doesn't mean that all the growth is backloaded. It just means that it's an average of the year '27.

這就是事實。而這種情緒來自雙方。一方面，這是因為我們連續三年交付了產品，所以現金流增加。所以讓我們明確一下，「27」這個數字指的是到 2027 年底。所以這是三年來的下降趨勢。現在還沒開始，我不知道是哪個季度。而且這是每年一次的。所以說清楚點，它在最後。但這並不意味著所有的成長都集中在後半段。這只是意味著它是 2027 年的平均值。

And it's coming as well from the discipline of the CapEx because we have -- your guidance is at $16 billion. So both will contribute to this reinvestment rate, which is lower by 20%. So if you have 20% -- if you are lowering reinvestment rate, it's good and it's consistent with the free cash flow per share increase that we have announced. So that's a way to explain why we will be able to increase the free cash flow per share because we have more cash and less CapEx. And that's where we want to embark all our investors who trust TotalEnergies.

這也得益於資本支出方面的嚴格控制，因為我們──你們的指導目標是 160 億美元。因此，兩者都會導致再投資率下降 20%。所以，如果你有 20%——如果你降低了再投資率，這是好事，也與我們宣布的每股自由現金流成長是一致的。所以，這可以解釋為什麼我們能夠增加每股自由現金流，因為我們有更多的現金和更少的資本支出。而這正是我們希望所有信任TotalEnergies的投資者們共同開啟的旅程。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I think it was the last question. Yeah?

我想那是最後一個問題。是的？

There are no more questions registered at this time.

目前沒有更多問題提交。

Okay. So thank you to all of you for your attendance. I hope that all the analysis you've done will be reflected in the stock price. It was not the case this morning.

好的。感謝各位的出席。我希望你所做的所有分析都能反映在股價上。但今天早上並非如此。

But again, we are delivering. This is the message. We are delivering. We have a consistent strategy. We are just executing in. We deliver. And frankly, the Board of Directors and myself as CEO, we are quite pleased with the results of this quarter because that demonstrates, and again, that all what we explained you quarter and year after year is on the delivery mode and that free cash flow will increase.

但我們再次強調，我們正在按時交付。這就是訊息。我們正在發貨。我們採取的是一貫的策略。我們正在執行任務。我們說到做到。坦白說，董事會和我作為首席執行官，對本季度的業績非常滿意，因為這再次表明，我們每個季度和每年向你們解釋的一切都在逐步實現，自由現金流將會增加。

Thank you for your attendance.

謝謝各位的出席。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，本次電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。