使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome to TSMC's second quarter 2006 results webcast conference call.
歡迎來到台積電 2006 年第二季度業績網絡直播電話會議。
Today's event is chaired by Ms. Lora Ho, Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, and Dr. Rick Tsai, Chief Executive Officer and President.
今天的活動由首席財務官兼副總裁Lora Ho女士和首席執行官兼總裁Rick Tsai博士主持。
This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com and only in audio mode. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] Please be advised, for those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.
本次電話會議正在通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播,並且僅以音頻模式進行。 [運營商說明] 請注意,對於尚未獲得新聞稿副本的參與者,您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。
Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.
另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。
One again, the URL is www.tsmc.com.
再次,URL 是 www.tsmc.com。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr. Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations for the cautionary statement before the main presentation by Ms. Ho and Dr. Tsai.
我現在想把會議交給台積電投資者關係主管 Elizabeth Sun 博士,在何女士和蔡博士的主要演講之前發表警告性聲明。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
Good morning and good evening to all participants.
祝所有參與者早上好,晚上好。
This is Elizabeth Sun, Head of Investor Relations for TSMC.
我是台積電投資者關係主管 Elizabeth Sun。
Welcome to join our second quarter conference call.
歡迎加入我們的第二季度電話會議。
Today's call will have three main parts.
今天的電話會議將分為三個主要部分。
First, is our CFO Ms. Lora Ho's report on the second quarter results and third quarter guidance.
首先是我們的首席財務官Lora Ho 女士關於第二季度業績和第三季度指引的報告。
Then it will be a presentation by Dr. Jack Sun, TSMC's Vice President of R&D, who will be talking about our recent progress in advanced technology.
然後是台積電研發副總裁孫杰博士的演講,他將談論我們在先進技術方面的最新進展。
And finally we will have Dr. Rick Tsai chair the question-and-answer session.
最後,我們將請 Rick Tsai 博士主持問答環節。
Before we begin, I would like to state that management's comments about TSMC's current expectations made during this conference call are forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.
在我們開始之前,我想聲明管理層在本次電話會議期間對台積電當前預期的評論是前瞻性陳述,存在重大風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。
Information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on April 20th, 2006, and such other documents as TSMC may file with or submit to the SEC from time to time.
有關可能導致實際結果與台積電的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息,請參閱台積電於 2006 年 4 月 20 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及此類其他文件台積電可能會不時向 SEC 提交文件或提交給 SEC。
Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務,無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。
And now I would like to turn the conference call over to Ms. Lora Ho, our Chief Financial Officer and Vice President.
現在,我想將電話會議轉交給我們的首席財務官兼副總裁 Lora Ho 女士。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Thank you, Elizabeth.
謝謝你,伊麗莎白。
Good morning and good evening to everyone.
大家早上好,晚上好。
Welcome to the TSMC second quarter 2006 earnings conference call.
歡迎參加台積電 2006 年第二季度財報電話會議。
As mentioned during our first quarter earnings conference, TSMC will shift the basis for our financial reporting from unconsolidated basis to consolidated basis.
正如我們在第一季度財報會議上所提到的,台積電將把我們的財務報告基礎從非合併基礎轉移到合併基礎。
For our first quarter earnings release we presented our financial results on an unconsolidated basis with a reconciliation of material differences between the two reporting bases provided in the management report.
對於我們的第一季度收益發布,我們在未合併的基礎上展示了我們的財務業績,並調整了管理報告中提供的兩個報告基礎之間的重大差異。
For the second quarter we will report the financial results of TSMC on the consolidated basis.
對於第二季度,我們將在合併基礎上報告台積電的財務業績。
A reconciliation of material differences between the two reporting bases will also be provided in the management report, as well as in my presentation.
兩個報告基礎之間的重大差異的核對也將在管理報告和我的演示文稿中提供。
Starting from the third quarter of 2006, we will shift over to a consolidated report only.
從 2006 年第三季度開始,我們將只使用合併報告。
Now I would like to walk you through our second quarter consolidated results, followed by a discussion of our second quarter unconsolidated results.
現在,我想向您介紹我們第二季度的合併結果,然後討論我們第二季度的未合併結果。
I will then go over our guidance for the third quarter 2006.
然後,我將回顧我們對 2006 年第三季度的指導。
We have posted-- posted our quarterly financial summary slides on our website.
我們已經在我們的網站上發布了我們的季度財務摘要幻燈片。
Those slides are intended to assist you to follow the flow of our presentation.
這些幻燈片旨在幫助您了解我們的演示流程。
Slide numbers are posted on the bottom half of each slide and we may refer to certain slides throughout the presentation for your convenience.
幻燈片編號張貼在每張幻燈片的下半部分,為了您的方便,我們可能會在整個演示文稿中引用某些幻燈片。
All dollar figures are in NT dollars unless otherwise stated.
除非另有說明,所有美元數字均以新台幣為單位。
With that, please flip to slide number five.
有了這個,請翻到第五張幻燈片。
Let me start with some of the highlights of the quarter.
讓我從本季度的一些亮點開始。
We had a good second quarter.
我們有一個很好的第二季度。
Total revenue for the quarter was over NT$82 billion, at the high end of our guidance, mainly driven by strong demand from our customers in consumer and communication segments.
本季度總收入超過 820 億新台幣,處於我們指引的高端,主要受消費者和通信領域客戶強勁需求的推動。
Earnings per share was NT$1.32, up 85% year-over-year and up 4% quarter-over-quarter.
每股收益為新台幣 1.32 元,同比增長 85%,環比增長 4%。
Now let's take a closer look at our income statement.
現在讓我們仔細看看我們的損益表。
During the second quarter of 2006, we delivered 37% year-over-year and over 5% quarter-over-quarter top-line growth.
在 2006 年第二季度,我們實現了 37% 的同比和超過 5% 的環比收入增長。
We saw strength in consumer and communication segments with revenue from consumer and communication applications registering 21% and 19% sequential growth, respectively.
我們看到消費者和通信領域的實力強勁,消費者和通信應用的收入分別錄得 21% 和 19% 的環比增長。
On the other hand, revenue from computer applications declined by 16% quarter-over-quarter as a result of inventory corrections in the PC-related supply chain.
另一方面,由於 PC 相關供應鏈的庫存調整,計算機應用程序的收入環比下降了 16%。
Gross margin improved by 3.3 percentage points Q-over-Q to reach 51.8%, largely due to a higher level of wafer outputs and productivity improvements.
毛利率環比增長 3.3 個百分點,達到 51.8%,這主要是由於更高水平的晶圓產量和生產力的提高。
We grew operating income faster than revenue.
我們的營業收入增長快於收入。
Operating margin was 43% for the quarter, which was 1 percentage point higher than the high end of our expectations.
本季度的營業利潤率為 43%,比我們預期的高端高出 1 個百分點。
Finally, our net income increased by 85% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter with a one-time gain of NT$1.6 billion included in the net income of the first quarter.
最後,我們的淨收入同比增長 85%,環比增長 4%,其中包括第一季度淨收入的一次性收益新台幣 16 億元。
Now let me turn to the balance sheet.
現在讓我談談資產負債表。
We ended the quarter with NT$212 billion in cash and marketable securities, which is a NT$19 billion increase from Q1.
我們以新台幣 2120 億美元的現金和有價證券結束本季度,比第一季度增加了 190 億新台幣。
Our current liabilities increased by NT$69 billion as a result of NT$65 billion payable for cash dividend and employee bonus.
我們的流動負債增加新台幣 690 億元,因應付現金紅利及員工花紅新台幣 650 億元。
Our accounts receivable turnover days declined by two days Q-over-Q.
我們的應收賬款周轉天數環比下降了兩天。
In the meantime, our inventory turnover days increased by three days Q-over-Q, in part due to an increase in our turnkey business.
與此同時,我們的庫存周轉天數環比增加了三天,部分原因是我們的交鑰匙業務增加。
Now please turn to page eight for a brief summary of our cash flow statement.
現在請翻到第八頁,簡要了解我們的現金流量表。
We generated over NT$50 billion in cash from our operations, up 36% from the prior year.
我們從經營中產生了超過 500 億新台幣的現金,比去年增長 36%。
We spent over NT$21 billion or US$634 million on capital expenditures during the second quarter, which brings our first half capital spending to NT$33 billion or a bit over US$1 billion.
我們在第二季度的資本支出超過 210 億新台幣或 6.34 億美元,這使我們上半年的資本支出達到 330 億新台幣或略高於 10 億美元。
We maintained our CapEx guidance for the whole year at between US$2.6 to US$2.8 billion.
我們將全年資本支出指引維持在 2.6 美元至 28 億美元之間。
As a result, total cash increased by NT$20 billion from the last quarter and now exceeds NT$140 billion.
結果,總現金比上一季度增加了200億新台幣,現在超過了1400億新台幣。
In terms of our capacity, total installed capacity for the second quarter was 1.7 8-inch equivalent wafers, in line with our previous expectations.
產能方面,二季度總裝機容量為1.7片8英寸當量晶圓,符合我們此前的預期。
We expect our third quarter capacity to reach close to 1.8 8-inch equivalent wafers or a 5.8% sequential growth.
我們預計我們第三季度的產能將達到接近 1.8 個 8 英寸等效晶圓或 5.8% 的連續增長。
Compared to the capacity guidance that we provided in April, we have slightly increased our 2006 total capacity by about 50,000 wafers.
與我們在 4 月份提供的產能指導相比,我們將 2006 年的總產能略微增加了約 50,000 片晶圓。
Most of the capacity increase is for the mature technology.
大部分產能增加是為了成熟的技術。
Page 11 through page 14 of the slides break down our sales by technology application, geography and customer, which I will not go through in detail.
幻燈片的第 11 頁到第 14 頁按技術應用、地理和客戶細分了我們的銷售額,我不會詳細介紹。
However, I would like to point out that our 90-nanometer revenue continues to increase and accounted for 24% of our total wafer sales in the second quarter, up from 20% in the first quarter.
但是,我想指出的是,我們的 90 納米收入繼續增長,佔第二季度我們晶圓總銷售額的 24%,高於第一季度的 20%。
Before I go over the next quarter guidance, I would like to quickly go through our unconsolidated results for the second quarter.
在我介紹下一季度的指導之前,我想快速瀏覽一下我們第二季度的未合併業績。
Please turn to page 15.
請翻到第 15 頁。
For the second quarter of 2006 the consolidated net sales were higher than the unconsolidated net sales by about 1%.
2006 年第二季度的合併淨銷售額比未合併的淨銷售額高出約 1%。
The consolidated gross margin was also higher than-- higher by about 1.4 percentage points, reflecting the true gross margin from the consolidating entities.
綜合毛利率也高於--高出約1.4個百分點,反映了綜合實體的真實毛利率。
For TSMC the major income statement differences between the two reporting bases were operating expenses and non-operating items.
對於台積電來說,兩個報告基礎之間的主要損益表差異是運營費用和非運營項目。
Consolidated operating expenses were higher, mainly due to additional operating expenses from our overseas sales office, wafer [inaudible] and certain venture capital funds.
合併運營費用較高,主要是由於我們的海外銷售辦事處、晶圓 [聽不清] 和某些風險投資基金的額外運營費用。
The difference in non-operating items was largely due to the consolidating-- consolidation of subsidiaries.
營業外項目的差異主要是由於子公司的合併-合併所致。
Upon consolidation, the financial results of our consolidating subsidiaries are no longer included in our investment income.
合併後,我們合併子公司的財務業績不再包括在我們的投資收益中。
Instead, they are included in the appropriate categories of our income statement.
相反,它們包含在我們損益表的適當類別中。
Now let me move to balance sheet.
現在讓我轉到資產負債表。
On the unconsolidated balance sheet, TSMC's share of its consolidated subsidiaries is included in the long-term investments on the balance sheet.
在未並表資產負債表中,台積電在其並表子公司中所佔份額計入資產負債表中的長期投資。
Upon consolidation, the assets and liabilities of these subsidiaries are included in the appropriate category of the balance sheet.
合併後,這些子公司的資產和負債包括在資產負債表的適當類別中。
As a result, except for long-term investments, most of the asset and liability items are higher on the consolidated basis.
因此,除長期投資外,大部分資產和負債項目在合併基礎上均較高。
At the end of the second quarter among the balance sheet items which had the largest difference between the two reporting bases were cash and marketable securities and the fixed assets.
二季度末,兩個報告基數差異最大的資產負債表項目為現金及有價證券和固定資產。
On the liability side, total consolidated liability was about NT$11 billion higher, largely due to borrowing by TSMC Shanghai.
負債方面,綜合負債總額增加約新台幣 110 億元,主要是台積電上海借款所致。
Finally, the difference between the shareholders equity was due to minority interests.
最後,股東權益的差異是由於少數股東權益所致。
Now a brief summary of our unconsolidated cash flow statement.
現在簡要總結我們的未合併現金流量表。
When comparing the cash flow statements, we generated slightly more cash from our operations and spent a bit more cash for investment on a consolidated basis.
在比較現金流量表時,我們從運營中產生的現金略多,並在綜合基礎上花費了更多現金用於投資。
As a result, net cash increase was NT$2.5 billion more on the consolidated basis in the second quarter.
因此,第二季度綜合現金淨增加新台幣 25 億元。
With that, I'll turn to our guidance for the third quarter of 2006.
有了這個,我將轉向我們對 2006 年第三季度的指導。
Since we are shifting to our consolidating reporting, we will provide guidance on consolidated basis only.
由於我們正在轉向合併報告,因此我們將僅在合併基礎上提供指導。
Based on current business and foreign exchange rate expectations, we expect consolidated revenue to be between NT$79 to NT$82 billion.
根據目前的業務和匯率預期,我們預計綜合收入將在新台幣 79 至 820 億元之間。
Our expectation for gross margins in third quarter is between 48% to 50%.
我們對第三季度毛利率的預期在 48% 至 50% 之間。
The operating profit margin is expected to be between 39% to 41%.
營業利潤率預計在39%至41%之間。
I have finished my presentation.
我已經完成了我的演講。
Now I would like to turn the call over to Dr. Jack Sun, our Vice President of R&D, for an update of our advanced technology.
現在,我想將電話轉給我們的研發副總裁 Jack Sun 博士,了解我們先進技術的最新情況。
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Good morning and good evening.
早上好,晚上好。
It's my pleasure to report some of TSMC's recent progress on advanced technology, for example, in the 80 nanometer, 65 nanometer and 45 nanometer, and here are the highlights.
很高興向大家報告台積電近期在先進技術方面的一些進展,例如在 80 納米、65 納米和 45 納米方面,這裡是重點。
We have brought 80 nanometer process into mass production to provide both cost and performance benefits.
我們已將 80 納米工藝投入批量生產,以提供成本和性能優勢。
In addition, we have qualified 65 nanometer process for full production and we have started bringing three products with excellent yield ahead of the industry.
此外,我們已經通過了 65 納米工藝的全面量產驗證,並開始推出三款領先於行業的良率產品。
As part of the technology package, we have established a design-for-manufacturing, DFM-- a DFM standard for 65 nanometer and beyond, which enables our customers time to market-- shorter time to market and time to volume.
作為技術包的一部分,我們建立了面向製造的設計,DFM——65 納米及以上的 DFM 標準,使我們的客戶能夠縮短上市時間——縮短上市時間和量產時間。
At the same time, we continue to push Moore's Law and we are accelerating 45 nanometer technology for production by the end of next year and as part of this 45 nanometer thrust, we have demonstrated production capability for a new lithography capability, the immersion lithography with record low defect count.
與此同時,我們繼續推動摩爾定律,我們正在加速 45 納米技術在明年年底前投入生產,作為 45 納米推進的一部分,我們已經展示了新光刻能力的生產能力,即浸入式光刻技術記錄低缺陷數。
I'll use a few slides to illustrate and highlight the immersion lithography progress and our innovation in DFM technology.
我將使用幾張幻燈片來說明和強調浸入式光刻技術的進步以及我們在 DFM 技術方面的創新。
First, let's look at immersion lithography.
首先,讓我們看一下浸沒式光刻。
Immersion lithography allows Moore's Law to continue beyond 65 nanometers and all the way to 22 nanometers.
浸沒式光刻允許摩爾定律繼續超過 65 納米,一直到 22 納米。
It is pioneered by TSMC's Dr. Burn Lin and got accepted by ATI, [inaudible] and the industry as the lithography standard.
它由台積電的 Burn Lin 博士首創,並被 ATI、[聽不清] 和業界接受為光刻標準。
How it works?
這個怎麼運作?
By having water between the lens and the wafer we can improve the resolution and the depth of focus for better image quality.
通過在鏡頭和晶圓之間加入水,我們可以提高分辨率和焦深,從而獲得更好的圖像質量。
There are many challenges of immersion lithography and we have overcome almost all of them.
浸沒式光刻存在許多挑戰,我們幾乎已經克服了所有挑戰。
And one of the challenges is defects.
挑戰之一是缺陷。
Defects can come from particles, water marks, bubbles and so forth and we have perfected the art and demonstrated production capability.
缺陷可能來自顆粒、水印、氣泡等,我們已經完善了工藝並展示了生產能力。
And this slides shows the example that we have low single digit defects on a 12-inch wafer and we have even demonstrated zero defects while the others have double or triple digit type of defects.
這張幻燈片顯示了我們在 12 英寸晶圓上具有低個位數缺陷的示例,我們甚至證明了零缺陷,而其他缺陷則具有兩位數或三位數類型的缺陷。
And we have proven this production capability also in 65-nanometer using a 16 megabit [inaudible] vehicle.
我們已經使用 16 兆位 [聽不清] 車輛證明了這種生產能力也在 65 納米。
Now let me turn into the yield and the DFM illustration.
現在讓我來看看產量和 DFM 插圖。
As you can see in this slide, from 0.18 micron to 0.13 micron to 90 nanometer to 65 nanometer, on the defect density running rate standpoint, we have generation-to-generation improvement.
正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的,從 0.18 微米到 0.13 微米再到 90 納米到 65 納米,從缺陷密度運行率的角度來看,我們有一代又一代的改進。
And these production data are based on actual customer products.
而這些生產數據是基於實際的客戶產品。
How can we do this?
我們應該怎麼做?
That is both in terms of solid technology and methodology.
這既是在堅實的技術方面,也是在方法論方面。
In addition, starting in 90-nanometer and 65-nanometer and beyond, yield is no longer purely limited by physical defects and we need and we have innovative design-for-manufacturing solutions to help our customers overcome residual process variances on wafers and achieve consistent success and fast time to money.
此外,從 90 納米和 65 納米及以上開始,良率不再純粹受物理缺陷的限制,我們需要並且我們擁有創新的製造設計解決方案來幫助我們的客戶克服晶圓上的殘餘工藝差異並實現一致成功和快速的賺錢時間。
What is DFM and what is TSMC's innovation?
什麼是DFM,台積電的創新是什麼?
I'll use a couple slides to show you.
我將使用幾張幻燈片向您展示。
Variations naturally occur on silicon wafers.
矽晶片上自然會發生變化。
For example, lithography may not have a tool square pre-melt.
例如,光刻可能沒有工具方形預熔。
You actually get a hole, a round hole.
你實際上得到一個洞,一個圓洞。
And when you try to [inaudible] the wafer, depending on density and environment, it may have different topography and thickness and these residual defects could cause serious problems for advanced technologies.
當您嘗試 [聽不清] 晶圓時,根據密度和環境,它可能具有不同的形貌和厚度,這些殘留缺陷可能會給先進技術帶來嚴重問題。
And the old-fashioned DFM rules or guidelines can often-- are often hard to use or check, so designers often ignore them or they run into problems.
並且老式的 DFM 規則或指南通常很難使用或檢查,因此設計人員經常忽略它們或遇到問題。
Our innovative DFM solution puts automated DFM capabilities at designer's fingertips so they can overcome such process variances-- variations and design sensitivity from the start in their design stage.
我們創新的 DFM 解決方案讓設計人員觸手可及的自動化 DFM 功能,因此他們可以從設計階段的一開始就克服此類工藝差異 - 變化和設計敏感性。
They don't necessarily need to know the process and how to interpret all the subtleties in the design-for-manufacturing considerations.
他們不一定需要了解流程以及如何解釋面向製造的設計考慮中的所有細微之處。
Let me use an analogy.
讓我打個比方。
If a driver is driving to a new city or unfamiliar area, even if you have the map, traffic rules and some tips, you may still run into accidents or get tickets.
如果司機開車去一個新的城市或陌生的地區,即使你有地圖、交通規則和一些提示,你仍然可能會遇到事故或被罰單。
And our DFM solution is like an enhanced GPS or auto-pilot kind of program, which can guide you all the way to your destination safely and quickly.
我們的 DFM 解決方案就像一個增強型 GPS 或自動駕駛程序,可以引導您安全快速地到達目的地。
And the significance and value of TSMC's DFM solution is illustrated in the following slides.
台積電 DFM 解決方案的意義和價值在以下幻燈片中進行了說明。
If you look at the bottom cartoon, in a now DFM design implementation or in the traditional way of doing it, you could easily run into serious yield or performance problems when you try to bring up the yield and each screw-up may take months to fix and you know time is money.
如果您查看底部動畫,在現在的 DFM 設計實現中或以傳統方式執行此操作時,當您嘗試提高良率時,您很容易遇到嚴重的良率或性能問題,並且每次搞砸都可能需要幾個月的時間修復,你知道時間就是金錢。
So you want to be able to tackle this from the beginning and our automated DFM solution is easy to use and we can shorten the yield rep cycle so that the customers can enjoy the early market benefit.
因此,您希望能夠從一開始就解決這個問題,我們的自動化 DFM 解決方案易於使用,我們可以縮短產量代表週期,以便客戶能夠享受早期的市場利益。
And let me also make a comment here.
讓我也在這裡發表評論。
A poor DFM or a poor process may cost too much time in the design phase to implement DFM or it would increase the die size when you implement the DFM.
差的 DFM 或差的工藝可能會在設計階段花費太多時間來實施 DFM,或者在實施 DFM 時會增加裸片尺寸。
So our differentiation is really in both process technology and also the DFM ease of use.
所以我們的區別在於工藝技術和 DFM 的易用性。
And we have established a de facto DFM standard and a DFM platform.
我們已經建立了事實上的 DFM 標準和 DFM 平台。
Just like you need to define the DVD format when you try to create this market and make it easy to use for people to entertain themselves, we have defined a DFM format, a standardized format.
就像您在嘗試創建這個市場並使其易於使用以供人們娛樂自己時需要定義 DVD 格式一樣,我們定義了 DFM 格式,一種標準化格式。
With this TSMC can release our proprietary encrypted process DFM data kit to designers and IT providers and they can use in their own designs.
有了這個 TSMC 可以向設計人員和 IT 提供商發布我們專有的加密工藝 DFM 數據套件,他們可以在自己的設計中使用。
And we are also working with the EDA industry and IP library providers to have this DFM-compliant ecosystem, which also support our customers' product designs.
我們還與 EDA 行業和 IP 庫提供商合作,以擁有這個符合 DFM 的生態系統,它也支持我們客戶的產品設計。
In this way, designers can gain the full benefit of DFM without any pain or errors, even if they don't have the process technology expertise.
這樣,即使沒有工藝技術專業知識,設計人員也可以毫無痛苦或出錯地充分利用 DFM。
And this ecosystem right now has close to 20 major EDA companies and 8 of them have been certified to date.
而這個生態系統目前擁有近 20 家主要的 EDA 公司,其中 8 家已獲得認證。
So let me summarize.
所以讓我總結一下。
We continue to lead in advanced technology and we have established, created a novel design-for-manufacturing standard and a solution that's a total integrated package to make advanced technology very easy to adopt and to have product success and quick ramps for the money and the market share.
我們繼續在先進技術方面處於領先地位,我們已經建立、創建了一種新穎的製造設計標準和一個完整的集成包解決方案,使先進技術非常易於採用,並獲得產品成功和快速的收益和收益。市場份額。
And we have been accelerating 45-nanometer technology to extend our leadership and we have continued to invest in exploratory advanced research to continue to push more Moore's Law ahead to create value for our customers.
我們一直在加速 45 納米技術以擴大我們的領先地位,並且我們繼續投資於探索性高級研究,以繼續推動摩爾定律向前發展,為我們的客戶創造價值。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
At this point, I think our CEO, Dr. Rick Tsai, will give a few remarks before we open the floor for questions.
在這一點上,我認為我們的首席執行官 Rick Tsai 博士會在我們開始提問之前發表一些評論。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Hello.
你好。
Good morning and good evening.
早上好,晚上好。
Since there are a few questions that are asked by many people, so what I would like to do is to give-- to give my comments and the answers to those questions at the beginning of the session.
由於有很多人提出了一些問題,所以我想做的就是在會議開始時給出我的意見和這些問題的答案。
The first one, obviously, is the question on the inventory or the correction by the inventory buildup in the industry and how that impacts the semiconductor in 2006 and 2007 and how TSMC manages this correction.
顯然,第一個問題是關於庫存或行業庫存增加的修正,以及這將如何影響 2006 年和 2007 年的半導體以及台積電如何管理這種修正。
My comments are as follows.
我的意見如下。
Obviously, from the guidance we just gave for the third quarter revenue you can see a slowdown in the growth of the business and this slowdown is mainly due to the inventory in the supply chain and the correction as a result by our customer base.
顯然,從我們剛剛給出的第三季度收入指引中,您可以看到業務增長放緩,而這種放緩主要是由於供應鏈中的庫存以及我們的客戶群導致的修正。
You look at there-- there have been many data coming out from the second quarter earnings release.
你看那裡——有很多數據來自第二季度的收益發布。
If you look through them carefully, you will find that basically the inventory level, either through the total value or DOI, is not coming down from the-- in the industry.
如果您仔細查看它們,您會發現基本上庫存水平,無論是通過總價值還是 DOI,都不是從行業中下降的。
Although the two large CPU manufacturers represent a very large chunk of the inventory buildup, if you take the large CPU manufacturers, you will find the inventory level in terms of the value probably has gone up by a couple of points [inaudible].
雖然這兩家大型 CPU 製造商在庫存積累中佔了很大一部分,但如果你拿大型 CPU 製造商來說,你會發現庫存水平在價值方面可能已經上升了幾個點 [聽不清]。
Also if you use the DOI measures, their inventories stayed pretty much flat at the end of the second quarter compared to that of the end of the first quarter.
此外,如果您使用 DOI 指標,他們的庫存在第二季度末與第一季度末基本持平。
Which means our customer base has already started the correction in the second-- in the second quarter and going into the third quarter, however we believe this correction will probably go through the whole year of year 2006.
這意味著我們的客戶群已經在第二季度開始調整——在第二季度並進入第三季度,但是我們相信這種調整可能會持續到 2006 年全年。
And the-- as a result, the way we look at the semiconductor industry growth rate for the whole year 2006 has some change.
因此,我們看待 2006 年全年半導體行業增長率的方式發生了一些變化。
Three months ago we forecast 8% to 12% growth rate for the semiconductor industry as a whole for 2006.
三個月前,我們預測 2006 年整個半導體行業的增長率為 8% 至 12%。
Now we are revising that growth rate to the low end of the range, that is, 8%, maybe to 9%.
現在我們正在將該增長率修正到該範圍的低端,即 8%,也許是 9%。
As to year 2007, right now we do have a specific number for the-- for the whole industry, however we still hold a positive view of year 2007.
至於 2007 年,目前我們確實對整個行業有一個具體的數字,但我們仍然對 2007 年持樂觀態度。
I'd like to remind you that 8%-9% growth rate for the industry, in our view, represents a very good, healthy growth rate, which is also the growth rate we expect industry to perform over a long period of time going forward.
我想提醒您的是,在我們看來,行業 8%-9% 的增長率代表了一個非常好的、健康的增長率,這也是我們預計行業在很長一段時間內的增長率。向前。
In year 2007 we expect the industry to perform at a similar rate to year 2006.
我們預計 2007 年該行業的表現將與 2006 年相似。
We'll try to give you a more specific number once we have a little better feeling in the future.
一旦我們將來感覺好一點,我們會盡量給你一個更具體的數字。
Many people also ask whether it is very similar, I mean, this time the inventory correction in 2006 compared to the correction which happened in the year 2004.
很多人也問是不是很像,我的意思是,這次2006年的庫存調整與2004年的調整相比。
Our observations are, yes, there are similarities, but there are also differences.
我們的觀察是,是的,有相似之處,但也有不同之處。
Similarities being basically the correction is, indeed, produced by the buildup of the inventory.
相似之處基本上是校正,實際上是由庫存的增加產生的。
However, we also have seen our customers to respond quite fast to the inventory buildup and also they're responding in a pretty large, I would say large magnitude for this inventory buildup, with the result we do expect this inventory correction to be more moderate, to be milder, compared to that of the year 2004.
然而,我們也看到我們的客戶對庫存增加做出了相當快的反應,而且他們的反應非常大,我想說這種庫存增加的幅度很大,因此我們確實預計這種庫存調整會更加溫和,與 2004 年相比要溫和一些。
Now what will TSMC do?
現在台積電會怎麼做?
What is TSMC doing to manage this inventory correction?
台積電正在採取什麼措施來管理這種庫存調整?
First-- first of all, since we believe this inventory correction is a mild-- is a mild and a shorter one, we do not plan to do things which are very drastic.
首先——首先,由於我們認為這種庫存調整是溫和的——是溫和且較短的,我們不打算做非常劇烈的事情。
The most important things for us to do, still, are the fundamentals.
我們要做的最重要的事情仍然是基本面。
We will not slow down any of our technology R&D.
我們不會放慢我們的任何技術研發。
By this we mean both process technology and design technology.
這裡我們指的是工藝技術和設計技術。
We will continue investing in the R&D.
我們將繼續投資於研發。
If anything, we will invest more and we'll try to accelerate our R&D so that we can have a better technology leadership going forward.
如果有的話,我們將進行更多投資,我們將努力加快研發速度,以便我們能夠在未來擁有更好的技術領先地位。
Of course, the same thing will apply to our manufacturing from cost-reduction point of view.
當然,從降低成本的角度來看,同樣的事情也適用於我們的製造。
We will continue to work very hard to accelerate the cost improvement.
我們將繼續努力加快成本改善。
Have said all that, we are doing something for the short term.
說了這麼多,我們正在做一些短期的事情。
Basically, we are managing our capital investments for the short-term purpose.
基本上,我們管理我們的資本投資是為了短期目的。
We are reducing some of our capital investment for the short term, though by moderate one.
我們將在短期內減少一些資本投資,但幅度是適度的。
We, of course, will also manage our operating expenses other than R&D so that we don't-- we can have a better profitability.
當然,我們還將管理研發以外的運營費用,這樣我們就不會——我們可以獲得更好的盈利能力。
TSMC has gone through many cycles during the past five to seven years and you know our track record very well.
台積電在過去五到七年經歷了許多周期,您對我們的業績非常了解。
I think we have-- what we have shown is our ability to manage the cycle better each time.
我認為我們有——我們所展示的是我們每次都能更好地管理週期的能力。
So with what we have been doing and what we have learned from both technology, manufacturing, CapEx management and demand generation, we have full confidence that we will do better this time compared to what we have done during the last correction.
因此,憑藉我們一直在做的事情以及我們從技術、製造、資本支出管理和需求產生方面學到的東西,我們完全有信心,與上次修正期間所做的相比,我們這次會做得更好。
And this is the comment for the first major, I would say, first set question.
這是對第一個專業的評論,我想說,第一組問題。
There are also quite a few people asking about our 65-nanometer status and the competitive landscape so I would like also to spend a few minutes on that subject.
也有不少人詢問我們 65 納米的現狀和競爭格局,所以我也想花幾分鐘討論這個問題。
Of course, Dr. Sun just now has made an excellent presentation on our technology status.
當然,剛才孫博士對我們的技術現狀做了一個很好的介紹。
What I will give you is probably more toward the business side.
我給你的可能更傾向於商業方面。
65-nanometer I would-- I'm very pleased to say is really doing very well.
65 納米我會——我很高興地說真的做得很好。
Not only are we completing our qualification for both low-power and general versions of the technology, we have-- we have already started small but significant volume of production for customers.
我們不僅完成了對低功耗和通用技術版本的認證,而且我們已經開始為客戶進行少量但大量的生產。
In addition, we have quite a few customers now qualifying their products in our 65-nanometer process.
此外,我們現在有不少客戶在我們的 65 納米工藝中驗證他們的產品。
We expect 65-nanometer production to have a significant ramp-up starting already last year and we also, according to our current forecast, we are expecting that we can-- the output of the 65-nanometer production will reach about 5% of the revenue by mid-199-- I'm sorry, 2007, give or take.
我們預計 65 納米的產量將從去年開始大幅增加,而且根據我們目前的預測,我們預計我們可以 - 65 納米的產量將達到約 5%到 199 年中期的收入——對不起,2007 年,給予或接受。
From a competitive landscape point of view, we do expect 65-nanometer competition to continue to be fierce, just as we have seen in the 90-nanometer node.
從競爭格局的角度來看,我們確實預計 65 納米的競爭將繼續激烈,就像我們在 90 納米節點中看到的那樣。
However, I'd like to also show you the results that we have-- we have shown over the past several quarters of our 90-nanometer performance.
但是,我還想向您展示我們的結果——我們在過去幾個季度中展示了 90 納米性能。
I think if you go and check the numbers you will find that TSMC has grabbed a very strong market share in the 90-nanometer technology node with the very fierce competition and I also am very happy to report that although the pricing pressure is very high, the gross margin pressure is very high, the gross margin in the 90-nanometer technology node has done better than we expected and we continue to see the gradual improvement of the 90-nanometer technology gross margin.
我想如果你去查數據你會發現台積電在競爭非常激烈的90納米技術節點上已經佔據了非常強大的市場份額,我也很高興地報告,雖然定價壓力很大,毛利率壓力很大,90納米技術節點的毛利率表現好於我們的預期,我們繼續看到90納米技術的毛利率逐步提升。
You may ask why -- by the way we certainly expect we'll continue to perform equally well or better for the 65-nanometer technology.
您可能會問為什麼——順便說一句,我們當然希望我們將繼續在 65 納米技術方面表現同樣出色或更好。
Why?
為什麼?
I think because for the advanced technology, the more advanced it is, the more important to have a platform solution rather than just have a process.
我認為因為對於先進的技術來說,越先進,擁有一個平台解決方案而不僅僅是一個流程就越重要。
What do we mean by platform solution?
平台解決方案是什麼意思?
That is, in addition to the process technology you need, first and foremost, a design environment which provides all kinds of IP to our customers, the memory compiles, the DFM, design-for-manufacturing, that Dr. Sun just talked about, the back-end technology compatibility.
也就是說,除了你需要的工藝技術,首先是一個為我們的客戶提供各種IP的設計環境,內存編譯,DFM,製造設計,孫博士剛才談到的,後端技術兼容性。
And why do we need all those things?
為什麼我們需要所有這些東西?
Because as you also know, the most important thing for a new technology is to be able to ramp it up fast with very good yield learning curve.
因為您也知道,對於一項新技術來說,最重要的是能夠以非常好的良率學習曲線快速提升它。
And nowadays, the yield, the limiting factors for the yield ramping lie not in the defects, the particles -- I'm not saying they're not important, what I'm saying they are not as critical as before because the yield limiting factors now lies a lot more in the interaction between the process technology and the product design.
現在,良率,良率上升的限制因素不在於缺陷,顆粒——我不是說它們不重要,我說它們不像以前那麼重要,因為良率限制現在,因素更多地在於工藝技術和產品設計之間的相互作用。
The critical thing is to design the product with good yield so that our customers can ramp their products sooner with higher volume and they can get a better profit, they can make more money, and as a result, we can be more profitable.
關鍵是要設計出高良率的產品,這樣我們的客戶就可以更快地推出更高產量的產品,他們可以獲得更好的利潤,他們可以賺更多的錢,因此我們可以獲得更多的利潤。
So just to summarize, the 65-nanometer technology is doing very well.
所以總結一下,65納米技術做得很好。
We will compete fiercely, again, in 65-nanometer as we have done in the 90-nanometer and we have all the confidence that we will again do well in the 65-nanometer technology.
我們將再次在 65 納米技術上進行激烈的競爭,就像我們在 90 納米技術上所做的一樣,我們有信心在 65 納米技術上再次取得好成績。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
That's my comments.
這就是我的評論。
Elizabeth?
伊麗莎白?
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
Operator, please open the floor to questions.
接線員,請開始提問。
Operator
Operator
[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] Your first question comes from the line of Bhavin Shah with JPMorgan.
[操作員說明] 您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Bhavin Shah。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Yes, thank you, and I apologize if there's any noise on the line.
是的,謝謝,如果線路上有任何噪音,我深表歉意。
The question I wanted to ask you, Rick, was that when you speak to your customers and it looks like you feel that they are working on bringing down the inventory levels already, do you feel that they are-- they are factoring in a potential scenario of already weak U.S. economy?
瑞克,我想問你的問題是,當你與客戶交談時,你覺得他們已經在努力降低庫存水平,你是否覺得他們正在考慮一個潛在的因素?美國經濟已經疲軟的情況?
Or you feel that they are still believing in a normal demand environment but simply trying to be-- trying to bring inventories more in line?
或者你覺得他們仍然相信正常的需求環境,但只是試圖——試圖讓庫存更符合預期?
And I have another question, thank you.
我還有一個問題,謝謝。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Okay.
好的。
I think it's more towards the latter of your two points, the second point.
我認為這更傾向於您的兩點中的後者,即第二點。
I think most customers feel fairly comfortable with the demand, I mean, for it.
我認為大多數客戶對需求感到相當滿意,我的意思是,對於它。
And, of course, PC, we all know, is not doing well.
當然,眾所周知,PC 表現不佳。
You've said that many times and the delay of the Vista may have contributed to that, at least part of that.
你已經說過很多次了,Vista 的延遲可能促成了這一點,至少是部分原因。
But other than that, I think consumer, communications, mind you that the handsets shipment this year is still very strong.
但除此之外,我認為消費者、通信,請注意今年的手機出貨量仍然非常強勁。
Nokia has done quite well.
諾基亞做得很好。
I think that some people probably got over-excited in the early part of the year and built too much components.
我認為有些人可能在年初過度興奮並構建了太多組件。
So to answer your question, I think people are-- most people are still comfortable with the demand, but the inventory is not distributed evenly.
所以回答你的問題,我認為人們——大多數人仍然對需求感到滿意,但庫存分配不均。
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
I see.
我懂了。
So if-- in the scenario where the U.S. economy actually does slow sharply, that will bring a new element of risk, I guess.
因此,如果——在美國經濟確實急劇放緩的情況下,我猜這將帶來新的風險因素。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Certainly.
當然。
Any time the U.S. economy--
任何時候美國經濟——
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Fair enough.
很公平。
Okay.
好的。
Second question I have was sort of-- I think clearly the discrete graphics you dominate the market and that's not going to change, but in the eventuality that CPU vendors start integrating graphics into the CPU, how do you see that developing?
我的第二個問題是——我認為你的獨立顯卡顯然主導了市場,這不會改變,但如果 CPU 供應商開始將顯卡集成到 CPU 中,你如何看待這種發展?
Is it like a three-year-out scenario that--?
是不是就像一個三年後的情景——?
And also, do you feel that in that situation you may be able to participate in the CPU itself?
而且,你覺得在那種情況下你可以參與 CPU 本身嗎?
Your thoughts on that, please?
請問您對此有何看法?
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I think the-- that scenario is a fairly new scenario.
我認為 - 這種情況是一個相當新的情況。
I don't think there is a consensus in the industry, at least as far as we can tell yet.
我認為業界還沒有達成共識,至少據我們所知。
I do not mean-- I mean, obviously we need to pay a very large, tremendous amount of attention to that.
我的意思不是——我的意思是,顯然我們需要對此給予極大的關注。
We view this, of course, as a potential opportunity for us, too.
當然,我們也認為這對我們來說是一個潛在的機會。
We-- I mean, graphics is a very large chip, very complicated chip, especially the higher performance ones.
我們——我的意思是,圖形是一個非常大的芯片,非常複雜的芯片,尤其是更高性能的芯片。
I think TSMC really has amassed expertise in building those products.
我認為台積電在構建這些產品方面確實積累了專業知識。
I think we have a very good position in working with the potential customers in that arena, also.
我認為我們在與該領域的潛在客戶合作方面也處於非常有利的地位。
We will-- we definitely view that as an opportunity.
我們將——我們絕對認為這是一個機會。
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Bhavin Shah - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Johnny Chen with Deutsche Bank.
您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Johnny Chen。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Hi, Rick.
嗨,瑞克。
I just have a question about the AMD's recent acquisition of ATI and with the acquisition you now have AMD, nVidia, Intel -- a lot of cooperation, a lot of competition in this thing at the same time.
我只是有一個關於 AMD 最近收購 ATI 的問題,隨著這次收購,你現在有 AMD、nVidia、英特爾——同時在這件事上有很多合作,也有很多競爭。
How do you think going forward the acquisition is going to affect TSMC's business on the PC side, both near term and long term.
您認為未來收購將如何影響台積電在 PC 方面的業務,無論是近期還是長期。
And I have another question.
我還有一個問題。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Okay, I think the merger between AMD and ATI, short-term, should not have impact to our business.
好的,我認為 AMD 和 ATI 的合併短期內應該不會對我們的業務產生影響。
Mid-term to longer-term I expect to see opportunities.
中長期我希望看到機會。
We-- as you know, we have-- we have had a very long and a very strong partnership relationship with ATI.
我們——如你所知,我們已經——我們與 ATI 建立了非常長期且非常牢固的合作關係。
We do have some relationship with AMD also.
我們也確實與 AMD 有一些關係。
We certainly view these as opportunities for us to further strengthen the relationship and expand our future business in that area.
我們當然認為這些是我們進一步加強關係並擴大我們在該領域未來業務的機會。
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Johnny Chen - Analyst
When you mean your relationship with AMD, is that coming from expansion or is it coming from something else, AMD on its own.
當您的意思是您與 AMD 的關係時,是來自擴張還是來自其他東西,AMD 本身。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
We do have some-- some business with the, not big one.
我們確實有一些 - 一些業務,不是大的。
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And my second question is on the 45-nanometer.
我的第二個問題是關於 45 納米的。
I mean, obviously, the [inaudible] Jack Sun just talked about, the immersion lithography, and obviously TSMC's one of the leaders in there and just given TSMC's position there, do you think there is a sufficient entry barrier at 45 that TSMC may have an even better margin at 45-nanometer compared to 65 and 90-nanometer?
我的意思是,顯然,[聽不清] Jack Sun 剛才談到的浸入式光刻技術,顯然台積電是其中的領導者之一,並且剛剛給出了台積電在那裡的位置,你認為台積電在 45 歲時是否有足夠的進入門檻與 65 和 90 納米相比,45 納米的利潤率更高?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Okay, Johnny, first-- first thing, I think each new technology presents a barrier.
好的,約翰尼,首先——首先,我認為每項新技術都會帶來障礙。
I understand some people view sometimes certain technologies, certain node is easier.
我理解有些人有時會認為某些技術、某些節點更容易。
What I can say is that going down to this very small dimension, any kind of a shrink, presents a lot of difficulties.
我能說的是,進入這個非常小的維度,任何一種收縮,都會帶來很多困難。
However, going down to 45-nanometer is probably-- I think it is fair to say that the barrier is probably higher because of the need for this of the immersion lithography and also very likely another generation of the low-K dielectric material for the metallization plus even more tricks for the transistors to get the-- and the design techniques to reduce-- to lower the power consumption.
然而,下降到 45 納米可能——我認為可以公平地說,由於需要浸沒式光刻技術,而且很可能需要另一代低 K 介電材料,因此勢壘可能更高。金屬化加上更多的技巧讓晶體管獲得 - 以及減少設計技術 - 以降低功耗。
So, yes, I think the technology barrier is, indeed, higher for 45-nanometers.
所以,是的,我認為 45 納米的技術壁壘確實更高。
That's why TSMC is pouring so much-- so much resources into developing the technology and we're trying to pull up the schedule.
這就是為什麼台積電投入如此多——如此多的資源來開發這項技術,我們正試圖加快進度。
We're working very closely with some of our largest customers to ensure we have an early capability for ramp.
我們正在與一些最大的客戶密切合作,以確保我們有早期的爬坡能力。
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Yes--
是的 -
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Have said all those things, I still-- I do not want to say that we can just rest on that “barrier.” We will do everything we can to compete in this technology, just as we have been doing before and now.
說了這麼多,我仍然——我不想說我們只能停留在那個“障礙”上。我們將盡我們所能在這項技術中競爭,就像我們過去和現在所做的那樣。
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Johnny Chen - Analyst
If I can just quickly follow up, if you have compared 45-nanometer and 0.13, there is a similar stage of development.
如果我可以快速跟進,如果您將 45 納米和 0.13 進行了比較,則存在類似的發展階段。
Which one do you think is technologically more challenging?
你認為哪一個在技術上更具挑戰性?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Good question.
好問題。
My feeling is the-- I think probably that the 45 may be a bit more challenging.
我的感覺是——我認為 45 可能更具挑戰性。
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Johnny Chen - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with FBR.
您的下一個問題來自 FBR 的 Mehdi Hosseini。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您提出我的問題。
When you look at your overall capacity this year, up by 20%, how should I think about wafer shipments as you try to keep utilization rates where they are?
當您查看今年增長 20% 的整體產能時,我應該如何看待晶圓出貨量,因為您試圖將利用率保持在原來的水平?
Should I expect a downtick in utilization rate and if you could give me some color on it?
我應該期待利用率下降嗎?你能否給我一些顏色?
And also, on-- in terms of your customers, if you could, elaborate on the strength or weakness in the game-console-related orders?
另外,關於您的客戶,如果可以的話,請詳細說明與遊戲機相關的訂單的優勢或劣勢?
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
You were talking about our capacity increase.
你說的是我們的產能增加。
Actually 2006 versus last year is 18.5% increase.
實際上 2006 年比去年增加了 18.5%。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Yes, so 18.5% increase with a downtick in the wafer-- the wafer shipment in the second half, would overall wafer shipment still be more than 18.5% increase to keep the utilization rate from a significant dropoff?
是的,所以在晶圓下降的情況下增長 18.5%——下半年的晶圓出貨量,整體晶圓出貨量是否仍會超過 18.5% 的增長,以防止利用率大幅下降?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
I think you're asking whether this year we'll have more than 18.5% increase in wafer shipment.
我想你是在問今年我們的晶圓出貨量是否會增加 18.5% 以上。
Is that your question?
那是你的問題嗎?
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
We will not talk about wafer shipment and if you look at our guidance on third quarter we are anticipating inventory corrections.
我們不會談論晶圓出貨量,如果您查看我們對第三季度的指導,我們預計會出現庫存修正。
That, of course, will affect some of the utilization, as well.
當然,這也會影響一些利用率。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
So would utilization rates go down in Q3?
那麼第三季度的利用率會下降嗎?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Yes, I believe so.
是的,我相信是的。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Yes.
是的。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
But would it-- would it get utilization rates down to 90% or below 90%?
但它會——它會使利用率降至 90% 或低於 90% 嗎?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
I will not quantify that.
我不會量化。
We have dropped guidance on utilization two quarters ago.
我們在兩個季度前放棄了對利用率的指導。
But if you look at our guidance on revenue, you can see that we are guiding the revenue slightly down on third quarter, somewhat, so with that you can figure out--
但是,如果您查看我們對收入的指導,您會發現我們在第三季度的指導收入略有下降,因此您可以計算出——
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
But-- we didn't have much color on the ASP, so maybe you can elaborate on the ASP trend, not specifically how it's changing, but is the dropoff in ASP more than the dropoff in wafer shipments?
但是——我們對 ASP 沒有太多的看法,所以也許你可以詳細說明 ASP 趨勢,而不是具體如何變化,但 ASP 的下降是否比晶圓出貨量的下降更多?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
We do not compare the ASP change versus wafer shipment change each year.
我們不比較每年的 ASP 變化與晶圓出貨量的變化。
Those two factors are the two factors that constitute total revenue, so we will talk about revenue only.
這兩個因素是構成總收入的兩個因素,所以我們只討論收入。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Okay, that's fair.
好吧,這很公平。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I think-- I think that the-- you probably can-- I don't think the ASP decline rate will be abnormal, shall we say, and I don't believe-- we don't see the utilization rate to go down the number you mentioned.
我認為--我認為--您可能可以--我認為ASP下降率不會異常,容我們說,而且我不相信--我們認為利用率不會下降記下你提到的數字。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Okay, that's fair.
好吧,這很公平。
And then regarding the game console market, [inaudible] had an interesting commentary regarding the cutback in wafer starts for one of their largest customers.
然後關於遊戲機市場,[音頻不清晰] 有一個有趣的評論,關於他們最大的客戶之一削減晶圓開工。
If you could elaborate on that, how you see that specific segment tracking?
如果您可以詳細說明,您如何看待特定的細分跟踪?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
You're asking-- if the wafer starts is slowing down?
你在問——如果晶圓啟動速度變慢了?
Is that the question?
是這個問題嗎?
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
No, actually, I'm talking about my second question and that has to do with the game console market.
不,實際上,我在談論我的第二個問題,這與遊戲機市場有關。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Game consoles?
遊戲主機?
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
[inaudible] said last week that their wafer starts from their largest customer related to game console had dropped off significantly for Q3.
[音頻不清晰] 上週表示,他們從與遊戲機相關的最大客戶開始的晶圓在第三季度大幅下降。
Do you see the same trend or how would you characterize the demand from the game console segment?
您是否看到相同的趨勢,或者您如何描述遊戲機細分市場的需求?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Well, I'm sorry that the-- we cannot really comment on this question directly, because you know who the customer is and we cannot comment on specific customer questions.
好吧,很抱歉——我們不能直接評論這個問題,因為你知道客戶是誰,我們不能評論具體的客戶問題。
But we can comment on the segment application overall, in general.
但我們可以總體上對細分應用進行評論。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
How would you characterize the consumer market, assuming that game console is included in there?
假設遊戲機包含在消費市場中,您將如何描述消費市場?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Consumer segment will be slightly up or flat in third quarter.
第三季度消費板塊將小幅上漲或持平。
That's overall picture of consumer.
這是消費者的整體情況。
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Titus Menzies with Jefferies.
您的下一個問題來自 Titus Menzies 和 Jefferies。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Good evening, gentlemen.
晚上好,先生們。
Thank you for taking my call.
謝謝你接聽我的電話。
Just a couple questions.
只是幾個問題。
Firstly, could you give me some color on-- on your migration to 45-- or your development of 45-nanometers?
首先,您能否給我一些關於您遷移到 45 或您開發 45 納米的信息?
What type of [inaudible] aperture will you be using in terms of achieving the yield?
就實現良率而言,您將使用哪種類型的 [聽不清] 光圈?
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Above 1.
1以上。
It's larger than 1.
它大於 1。
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Sure.
當然。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
You're asking a very--
你問的是一個非常——
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Technical question.
技術問題。
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Not only technical, but also a very critical technical point of view.
不僅是技術,而且是一個非常關鍵的技術觀點。
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Titus Menzies - Analyst
That's fair enough.
這很公平。
And maybe if I can ask, if we assume a slowdown in 2007 in terms of production from your end markets, would you CapEx going into the R&D remain unchanged or will that also be revised downwards too?
如果我可以問一下,如果我們假設 2007 年你們終端市場的生產放緩,你們投入研發的資本支出會保持不變還是也會向下修正?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
We will not revise down our R&D investment, including the CapEx for R&D and engineering wafer for R&D.
我們不會下調我們的研發投資,包括研發的資本支出和研發的工程晶圓。
We will only increase and accelerate our R&D activities.
我們只會增加和加速我們的研發活動。
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And the last question is you spoke about increasing the power management or power consumption, having a license of SOI technology into your portfolio, are you seeing any sort of traction with any of your customers for development of SOI technology for production?
最後一個問題是您談到增加電源管理或功耗,在您的產品組合中獲得 SOI 技術的許可,您是否看到任何客戶對開髮用於生產的 SOI 技術有任何吸引力?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
No.
不。
It's still too expensive and there are alternatives and the design barrier is quite high.
它仍然太貴,而且有替代品,設計障礙也很高。
As you know, SOI so far has been pretty in a niche market, meaning CPU with custom designs.
如您所知,到目前為止,SOI 一直處於利基市場,即定制設計的 CPU。
And SOI introduces additional variance which everybody worry about and that requires a lot of effort in design and most of the applications and most of the market cannot take that risk or cannot afford that kind of investment.
SOI 引入了每個人都擔心的額外差異,這需要在設計上付出很多努力,並且大多數應用程序和大多數市場都無法承擔這種風險或負擔不起這種投資。
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Titus Menzies - Analyst
Thank you very much for your time.
非常感謝您的寶貴時間。
I appreciate it.
我很感激。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ivan Goh with Dresdner Kleinwort.
您的下一個問題來自 Dresdner Kleinwort 的 Ivan Goh。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Hi, good evening.
嗨,晚上好。
I have two questions.
我有兩個問題。
The first one, is based on the comments made by many semiconductor companies it seems that if the order or forecast revisions for the third quarter happened quite late in the second quarter.
第一個是基於許多半導體公司的評論,如果第三季度的訂單或預測修正發生在第二季度的相當晚的話。
Can you, first of all, say whether these revisions are continuing into the current time or have they kind of like finished?
首先,您能否說出這些修訂是否會持續到當前時間,或者它們是否已經完成?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I think that, as we said at the very beginning, there is an inventory correction going on and we-- we expect to see this impact throughout the year, for sure.
我認為,正如我們在一開始所說的那樣,庫存調整正在進行中,我們 - 我們肯定會在全年看到這種影響。
What-- each customer is-- some customers start-- started the corrections sooner than the others, so I guess I would expect some more customers to continue the corrections for a while.
什麼 - 每個客戶 - 有些客戶開始 - 比其他客戶更早開始更正,所以我想我預計會有更多的客戶繼續更正一段時間。
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And my second question is, at the start of the conference call you said that you expect the corrections to be carried through into the fourth quarter of this year or rather for the rest of 2006.
我的第二個問題是,在電話會議開始時,您說您預計將在今年第四季度或更確切地說在 2006 年剩餘時間內進行修正。
What is your-- what is your assumption as to the level of correction in the third quarter and the fourth quarter?
您對第三季度和第四季度的修正水平有何假設?
Mainly I want to know, do you think that most of the correction will take place in Q3 with corrections actually kind of like moderating in Q4?
主要是我想知道,您是否認為大部分修正將在第三季度進行,而修正實際上有點像第四季度的緩和?
Or do you think that it's going to be one step at a time that the customers will take in regards to rationalizing their inventory?
還是您認為這將是客戶在合理化庫存方面一次又一次的步驟?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I think it will be-- from that point of view, it will be more similar to the-- probably it will be more similar to that of the 2004.
我認為它會 - 從這個角度來看,它會更類似於 - 可能會更類似於 2004 年的。
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Would you be more specific?
你會更具體嗎?
Would it be one step at a time or would it be a big cut and then-- and a smaller on in Q4?
是一次一步,還是大幅削減,然後 - 第四季度更小?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I--
我 -
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Probably not a big cut in one shot.
可能不是一次大的削減。
It's progressing gradually.
它正在逐步進行。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
There's a spectrum of different customers corrections.
有一系列不同的客戶更正。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
They behave differently.
他們的行為不同。
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Can you, perhaps, elaborate on the wireless area?
您能否詳細說明一下無線領域?
And that's my last question.
這是我的最後一個問題。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
In the wireless, the handset shows slightly down for the third quarter.
在無線方面,手機在第三季度略有下降。
For the third quarter?
第三季度?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Yes.
是的。
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Ivan Goh - Analyst
But would they be making most of the big cuts earlier and then-- or kind of like taking one step at a time?
但他們會提前和然後進行大部分大幅削減 - 還是有點像一次邁出一步?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
That's difficult for us to say, but I think it's in a gradual manner.
這對我們來說很難說,但我認為這是一個漸進的方式。
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Ivan Goh - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
All right.
好的。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with Citigroup.
您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Timothy Arcuri。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Hi.
你好。
A couple things.
幾件事。
First of all, have your-- have your lead times-- when you go out and order a piece of equipment with your-- with your vendors, have the-- have the times-- have the lead times for that equipment, has that changed in the last couple months?
首先,有你的 - 有你的交貨時間 - 當你出去和你的供應商訂購一件設備時,有 - 有時間 - 有那個設備的交貨時間,有在過去的幾個月裡發生了變化?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Not to a significant degree.
沒有顯著程度。
I mean, I just read the news, I think, as you do.
我的意思是,我只是讀了新聞,我想,和你一樣。
The semiconductor equipment industry's book-to-bill ratio seems to be doing well, at least reasonably well.
半導體設備行業的訂單出貨比似乎表現不錯,至少相當不錯。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Second question, I know that you don't want to talk about capacity utilization, but is it kind of safe to assume you're guiding shipments down about 2% and capacity's growing-- or, sorry, you're guiding revenue down about 2% and capacity is growing about 6% sequentially.
第二個問題,我知道您不想談論產能利用率,但是假設您正在引導出貨量下降約 2% 並且產能在增長,或者,對不起,您正在引導收入下降約2%,容量環比增長約 6%。
So if you use some kind of flattish ASPs, you're talking about a downtick in utilization maybe in the high single digits.
因此,如果您使用某種平淡無奇的 ASP,那麼您所談論的利用率可能會下降到高個位數。
And I'm just kind of wondering, as you compare this downturn relative to 2004 when you saw your capacity decline by about 25% in a six-month period, I'm wondering if there's reason to believe that the decline over a six-month period would be similar to what you saw back in 2004?
我只是想知道,當您將這次衰退與 2004 年相比時,您看到您的產能在六個月內下降了約 25%,我想知道是否有理由相信下降超過 6-月期間是否與您在 2004 年看到的相似?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Well, I think, of course, we don't have-- we cannot guide fourth quarter right now, but the-- as a whole we do-- we do view this correction to be milder, more moderate than the one in 2004.
好吧,我認為,當然,我們沒有——我們現在不能指導第四季度,但是——作為一個整體,我們有——我們確實認為這次修正比 2004 年的修正更溫和、更溫和.
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
So you would think that if utilization's down the high single digits, you're guiding to capacity increasing another 6% sequentially in Q4, so if shipments are down again or if revenue's down again you're going to have another high-single-digit to maybe low-double-digit sequential decline in capacity utilization.
因此,您會認為,如果利用率下降了高個位數,您將引導產能在第四季度再增加 6%,因此如果出貨量再次下降或收入再次下降,您將獲得另一個高個位數產能利用率可能出現兩位數的低位連續下降。
That's almost as bad as it was in 2004, not that much better, but maybe that math is wrong.
這幾乎和 2004 年一樣糟糕,也沒有好多少,但也許這個數學是錯誤的。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I guess I stick to my answer just now.
我想我現在堅持我的答案。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then last thing, I understood that today on the-- on the other call, you talked about '07 CapEx trend being up.
最後一件事,我了解到今天在另一個電話會議上,你談到了 07 年資本支出趨勢正在上升。
A) is that right?
A) 對嗎?
And B), how do you have the visibility on that given that you're-- you're actually cutting back on your 300-millimeter capacity right now?
B),鑑於您現在實際上正在削減 300 毫米的容量,您如何了解這一點?
So I just wanted some color on that.
所以我只是想要一些顏色。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I don't think we guided any specifics on 2007 CapEx.
我認為我們沒有指導 2007 年資本支出的任何細節。
What I said earlier in the afternoon was since we view, in general, 2007 to be another positive year with a growth probably rather similar to that of 2006, we will continue investing in advanced technology to meet all our customers' needs and we also will look for cost-effective mature technology capacity, since we have been seeing a pretty strong demand for our mature technology capability.
我在下午早些時候所說的是,由於我們總體上認為 2007 年是又一個積極的一年,其增長可能與 2006 年相似,我們將繼續投資於先進技術以滿足我們所有客戶的需求,我們還將尋找具有成本效益的成熟技術能力,因為我們已經看到對我們成熟技術能力的強烈需求。
But whether this will be larger or smaller compared to year 2006 we have not made that decision yet.
但是,與 2006 年相比,這將是更大還是更小,我們還沒有做出這個決定。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks a lot.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Shailesh Jaitly with Nomura Securities.
您的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Shailesh Jaitly。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Yes, hi.
是的,你好。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Last quarter I think you guided that your outsourcing relationship, the foundry relationship with the DRAM company and you characterized that roughly about 5% of the output was outsourced in the previous quarter from the DRAM company.
上個季度,我認為您指導了您的外包關係,與 DRAM 公司的代工關係,並且您描述了上一季度大約 5% 的產出是從 DRAM 公司外包的。
How has that changed as you go into 3Q?
進入第三季度後,情況有何變化?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
There's no change to the percentage, but I have to remind you that outsourcing does not only cover the DRAM company.
百分比沒有變化,但我必須提醒您,外包不僅包括 DRAM 公司。
It also covered our investment company Vanguard.
它還涵蓋了我們的投資公司 Vanguard。
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Lora, in that case, how that has the outsourcing relationship with Vanguard changed as we go into 3Q?
Lora,在這種情況下,隨著我們進入第三季度,與 Vanguard 的外包關係有何變化?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
It has not changed and we are increase our loading to Vanguard fabs, especially on 0.21 micron.
它沒有改變,我們正在增加對 Vanguard 晶圓廠的負載,尤其是 0.21 微米。
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
In-- in terms of your guidance for 3Q, I just wanted to understand the linearity of this quarter.
就您對第三季度的指導而言,我只是想了解本季度的線性度。
When you comprehended the month revenue run rate, is it fair to assume that July would be the peak revenue month in 3Q?
當您了解當月收入運行率時,是否可以假設 7 月將是第三季度的最高收入月份?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
We do not comment monthly revenue.
我們不評論月收入。
I think quarterly revenue should give you a good feeling of the trend.
我認為季度收入應該讓你對趨勢有一個很好的感覺。
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
But as we go down the quarter, are you seeing the cuts being progressively increasing or what is your feel as of now?
但是隨著我們本季度的下降,您是否看到削減正在逐步增加,或者您現在的感受是什麼?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
I think the three months will be fairly similar, but we cannot say which one will be higher than the other.
我認為這三個月會相當相似,但我們不能說哪個會比另一個高。
But I don't-- what we can say is that there should not be a big gap between the-- between the months.
但我不——我們可以說的是,這兩個月之間不應該有很大的差距。
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
One last thing I wanted to clarify.
我想澄清的最後一件事。
You mentioned earlier and I missed that for 3Q, if you look at various subsectors, you talked about PC wireless, consumer are you seeing an up-quarter in 3Q or that is also likely to come down sequentially?
您之前提到過,我錯過了第三季度,如果您查看各個子行業,您談到了 PC 無線,消費者您看到第三季度的上升季度還是可能會依次下降?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Consumer for the third quarter will be slightly up or flat, in general.
總體而言,第三季度的消費將小幅上漲或持平。
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
And which are the areas, which are the applications where you're seeing the growth?
哪些領域,哪些是您看到增長的應用程序?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
The application that has growth-- DVD players.
有增長的應用——DVD播放器。
Okay, DVD player and digital camera will decline and-- in second quarter and expected to improve slightly in third quarter.
好的,DVD 播放器和數碼相機將在第二季度下降並預計在第三季度略有改善。
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Shailesh Jaitly - Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of [Donald Lu] with [inaudible].
您的下一個問題來自 [Donald Lu] 和 [聽不清]。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Donald Lu - Analyst
Donald Lu - Analyst
Hi.
你好。
Lora, can you give us the third quarter on an unconsolidated basis?
Lora,你能給我們提供一個未合併的第三季度嗎?
That would simplify a lot of our work.
這將簡化我們的很多工作。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Donald, so you like unconsolidated more?
唐納德,所以你更喜歡鬆散的?
Donald Lu - Analyst
Donald Lu - Analyst
No, it just-- I believe not only me but some of us are going to still report with the unconsolidated reporting this quarter and so with that, it would just clarify a lot of uncertainties.
不,它只是 - 我相信不僅我,而且我們中的一些人仍將在本季度報告未合併報告,因此,它只會澄清很多不確定性。
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Okay.
好的。
You know the unconsolidated revenue was slightly smaller than consolidated revenue.
您知道未合併收入略小於合併收入。
If I have to guide it on unconsolidated basis I would guide NT$78 to NT$81 in terms of trend lines.
如果我必須在非合併的基礎上指導它,我會在趨勢線方面指導 NT$78 到 NT$81。
Donald Lu - Analyst
Donald Lu - Analyst
NT$78 to NT$81?
78新台幣到81新台幣?
How about margins, gross margin and operating margin?
利潤率、毛利率和營業利潤率如何?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
I give you one point less, 47% to 49%.
我給你少一分,47% 到 49%。
Donald Lu - Analyst
Donald Lu - Analyst
Okay, great.
好,太棒了。
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
I have a followup question on-- on the CapEx.
我有一個關於資本支出的後續問題。
Apparently-- I mean, Rick has commented that you have pushed out some of the equipment delivery and for the second half, like if customers want to ramp up very quickly in the second quarter, can you-- how do you prepare for that?
顯然——我的意思是,Rick 評論說你已經推遲了一些設備交付和下半年,比如如果客戶想在第二季度快速增加,你能——你如何準備?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Well, Donald, I think we-- now it's July.
好吧,唐納德,我想我們——現在是七月。
For the second quarter next year what we have done and what we usually do is for the long-lead-time equipment such as scanners, we do not really slow down the purchasing.
對於明年第二季度我們所做的和我們通常做的是掃描儀等長交貨期的設備,我們並沒有真正放慢採購速度。
So what we usually slow down are the ones that we can get in a relatively short lead time, like three months.
所以我們通常放慢的是我們可以在相對較短的交貨時間內得到的,比如三個月。
In that, I think we have a good buffer for the situation that you just mentioned.
在這方面,我認為我們對你剛才提到的情況有很好的緩衝。
Donald Lu - Analyst
Donald Lu - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Sure.
當然。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Fayad Abbasi with Neuberger.
您的下一個問題來自 Fayad Abbasi 與 Neuberger 的對話。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Rick, I had a question for you regarding the commentary about the 45-nanometer and it looks like with-- the amount of time before you move from 65 to 45 is a lot shorter than in prior process node trends.
Rick,關於 45 納米的評論,我有一個問題要問你,看起來你從 65 到 45 的時間比之前的工藝節點趨勢要短得多。
I was just curious.
我只是好奇而已。
Is this-- how do you-- how would you characterize this change and are customers demanding it or is it you're bringing it to the market and waiting for the customers, then, to move to the node?
這是 - 你如何 - 你如何描述這種變化,客戶是否需要它,或者你是否將它推向市場並等待客戶,然後,移動到節點?
And also, are you expecting these nodes, then, to see the same level of ramp-up that you have seen at prior nodes?
此外,您是否期望這些節點能夠看到您在之前的節點上看到的相同水平的加速增長?
Thanks.
謝謝。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
On the very first question, we have both.
在第一個問題上,我們兩者都有。
We have certain customers who are working closely with us who like to take the leading position in the process technology, of course, for their own benefit.
我們有一些與我們密切合作的客戶,他們喜歡在工藝技術上佔據領先地位,當然,這是為了他們自己的利益。
But also I think TSMC [inaudible] over the years we have invested heavily -- I would also think very productively -- in our technology development and we were able to pull in, somewhat, the schedule.
但我也認為台積電 [聽不清] 多年來,我們在技術開發方面投入了大量資金——我也認為很有成效——我們能夠在一定程度上加快進度。
I do not underestimate the level of the effort to get 45-nanometer technology into production into a large volume design.
我並沒有低估將 45 納米技術投入生產以進行大批量設計所付出的努力。
I think, as I said earlier in the session, the technology is just getting more and more difficult, both from a design point of view and a process point of view.
我認為,正如我在會議前面所說的那樣,無論從設計角度還是從工藝角度來看,這項技術都變得越來越困難。
However, it is also obvious that the economics works very well for the technology moving forward.
然而,同樣明顯的是,經濟對技術的發展非常有效。
So you can view that, also, as a barrier.
因此,您也可以將其視為障礙。
We are definitely working with customers who believe they can take the advantage of the 45-nanometer technology and get ahead against their competitors.
我們肯定會與相信他們可以利用 45 納米技術並在競爭中領先的客戶合作。
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
I guess, if you've looked back in the past at the-- the amount of revenue contribution from a particular node before you see the crossover to the next node, is that percentage-- do you think that comes down then?
我想,如果你回顧過去——在你看到與下一個節點的交叉之前來自特定節點的收入貢獻量,這個百分比——你認為那會下降嗎?
In other words, 65-nanometers may be not contributing north of 20% or north of 30% before you start your initial contributions from 45?
換句話說,在您從 45 開始初始貢獻之前,65 納米的貢獻可能不會超過 20% 或 30% 以北?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Tell you the truth, I do not have that visibility right now.
說實話,我現在沒有那種知名度。
Don't get me wrong.
不要誤會我的意思。
I believe 65-nanometer will be a popular node, simply by the sheer number of customers who are now already designing in in that.
我相信 65 納米將成為一個流行的節點,這僅僅是因為現在已經在其中進行設計的客戶數量之多。
What we're saying is we have-- on the other hand, there are customers who will jump ahead with 45, even though they are also using 65-nanometer, probably, for their mainstream volume products.
我們要說的是,我們有——另一方面,有些客戶會在 45 上領先,儘管他們可能也在使用 65 納米作為他們的主流量產產品。
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
And, Rick, maybe one last question on this topic, then.
然後,里克,也許是關於這個話題的最後一個問題。
In terms of 45-nanometer, a lot of discussions about big materials changes and yet if you're pulling in the schedule for 45, have you made a decision, then, to push back on some of the big changes?
在 45 納米方面,有很多關於重大材料變化的討論,但如果您要推遲 45 納米的時間表,那麼您是否已決定推遲一些重大變化?
I think the gate dielectric is one that usually comes up as the next big change in 45.
我認為柵極電介質通常是 45 年的下一個重大變化。
Has that been-- has that decision been finalized then?
那是——那個決定已經最終確定了嗎?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Yes.
是的。
I mean, we do not plan to change the gate dielectrics at a 45-nanometer node.
我的意思是,我們不打算改變 45 納米節點的柵極電介質。
My feeling is that's a more industry trend.
我的感覺是這是一個更行業的趨勢。
I do not know whether I can say consensus, but TSMC does not plan to use a different gate dielectric material.
我不知道我是否可以說共識,但台積電不打算使用不同的柵極介電材料。
I mean, as of now, it's complicated enough.
我的意思是,到目前為止,它已經足夠複雜了。
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Right.
正確的。
I guess immersion, then, is going to be the big change as we go to 45?
那麼,當我們進入 45 歲時,我猜沉浸感會是一個巨大的變化嗎?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Oh, absolutely.
哦,絕對的。
And, as I said, the lower-k dielectric for the metal addition is not a piece of cake, either.
而且,正如我所說,用於金屬添加的低 k 電介質也不是小菜一碟。
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Fayad Abbasi - Analyst
Sure.
當然。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, we only have time for two more participants.
女士們,先生們,由於時間關係,我們只剩下兩位參與者了。
Your next question comes from the line of Michael McConnell with Pacific Crest Securities.
您的下一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Michael McConnell。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Michael McConnell - Analyst
Michael McConnell - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Most of my questions have been answered.
我的大部分問題都已得到解答。
I just wanted a little bit more granularity on the end market outlook for Q3.
我只是想更詳細地了解第三季度的最終市場前景。
I understand you've already talked about consumer and wireless, but if we could maybe talk a little bit about PCs and the wireline markets, as well, please?
我知道您已經談到了消費者和無線,但如果我們也可以談談個人電腦和有線市場,好嗎?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
I think PC will continue the correction of inventory.
我認為PC將繼續調整庫存。
We are anticipating a major segment decline among all segments.
我們預計所有細分市場都會出現重大下滑。
Michael McConnell - Analyst
Michael McConnell - Analyst
Okay and wireline?
好的和有線的?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Okay, on the wireline-- wireline has declined moderately in second quarter and will improve moderately in third quarter, basically.
好的,關於有線——有線在第二季度略有下降,在第三季度基本會適度改善。
Michael McConnell - Analyst
Michael McConnell - Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
That's it.
而已。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Fitzgerald with Banc of America Securities.
您的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Mark Fitzgerald。
Please proceed.
請繼續。
Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst
Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Just a quick question on CapEx.
只是一個關於資本支出的快速問題。
You commented it's still NT$2.6 to NT$2.8 billion, but then you commented later in your call that you would be adjusting CapEx in the short term.
你評論說它仍然是 2.6 至 28 億新台幣,但後來你在電話會議中評論說你將在短期內調整資本支出。
How can we dovetail those two pieces of data?
我們如何才能將這兩條數據相吻合?
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
Lora Ho - VP and CFO
We have not changed our guidance of CapEx for the whole year.
我們全年沒有改變對資本支出的指導。
Actually, it actually-- when we first put out guidance, actually it was on the low end and a couple of months later it went up to the high end.
實際上,它實際上 - 當我們第一次發布指導時,實際上它處於低端,幾個月後它上升到高端。
We're now back to the low end again.
我們現在又回到了低端。
So that small adjustment Rick just mentioned is-- for this year still doesn't affect too much our CapEx budget for the whole year.
所以瑞克剛才提到的那個小調整是——今年仍然不會對我們全年的資本支出預算產生太大影響。
Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst
Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then quickly on a bigger issue, design-for-manufacturability is something we constantly hear about in the industry.
然後很快在一個更大的問題上,可製造性設計是我們在行業中經常聽到的東西。
I'm curious if this is a really important trend and if it forces your customers to be tied more closely to your own process technology with they design a chip?
我很好奇這是否是一個非常重要的趨勢,是否會迫使您的客戶在設計芯片時與您自己的工藝技術更緊密地聯繫在一起?
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Yes.
是的。
We enable them to sort of have this kind of a close tie through two ways.
我們使他們能夠通過兩種方式建立這種緊密的聯繫。
One is our innovative design-for-manufacturing standard where we can pretty much provide them with ease of use, proprietary DFM data or process data at their fingertips.
一是我們創新的製造設計標準,我們幾乎可以為他們提供易用性、專有的 DFM 數據或觸手可及的過程數據。
And second is for early adopters we have established a very good collaboration program with them.
其次,對於早期採用者,我們與他們建立了非常好的合作計劃。
So they are involved, collaboratively, with us at the early stage of process development and we more or less are doing concurrent engineering with them.
因此,他們在流程開發的早期階段與我們合作參與,我們或多或少地與他們進行並行工程。
So they are very much in synch with our process capability and where they should watch out to avoid design processes [inaudible].
因此,它們與我們的流程能力非常同步,並且他們應該注意避免設計流程 [聽不清]。
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Dr. Jack Sun - VP R&D
Also, all our customers are very smart.
此外,我們所有的客戶都非常聰明。
I like to think they-- they understand the need to use DFM for-- for better yield early, to ramp early.
我喜歡認為他們 - 他們了解使用 DFM 的必要性 - 為了儘早提高產量,儘早提高產量。
It's a win-win type of relationship rather than the kind of, as you describe-- how do you say, try to lock them in.
這是一種雙贏的關係,而不是你所描述的那種——怎麼說呢,試著把他們鎖起來。
I don't think that-- I don't think-- I think the customers are too smart to do that for that reason.
我不認為——我不認為——我認為客戶太聰明了,不會因為這個原因而這樣做。
Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst
Mark Fitzgerald - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Dr. Rick Tsai - President and CEO
Thank you.
謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions in queue.
隊列中沒有其他問題。
I would now like to turn the call over to management.
我現在想把電話轉給管理層。
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
Dr. Elizabeth Sun - Head of Investor Relations
I'd like to thank you very much for your time and we'll look forward to seeing all our callers next quarter. 'Bye-bye.
非常感謝您抽出寶貴時間,我們期待在下個季度見到我們所有的來電者。 '再見。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference.
感謝您參加今天的會議。
This concludes the presentation.
介紹到此結束。
You may now disconnect and have a great day.
您現在可以斷開連接並度過美好的一天。