台積電 ADR (TSM) 2005 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to TSMC's fourth quarter 2005 results webcast conference call.

歡迎收聽台積電 2005 年第四季度業績網絡直播電話會議。

Today's event is chaired by Ms. Lora Ho, Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, and Dr. Rick Tsai, Chief Executive Officer and President.

今天的活動由首席財務官兼副總裁Lora Ho女士和首席執行官兼總裁Rick Tsai博士主持。

This conference call is being webcast live via the TSMC website at www.tsmc.com, and only in audio mode.

本次電話會議正在通過台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 進行網絡直播，並且僅以音頻模式進行。

Your dial-in lines are also in listen-only mode.

您的撥入線路也處於只聽模式。

At the conclusion of the management presentation, we will be opening the floor for questions.

在管理演示結束時，我們將開始提問。

At that time, further instructions will be provided as to the procedure to follow if you would like to ask any questions.

屆時，如果您想提出任何問題，將提供有關遵循程序的進一步說明。

Please be advised for those participants who do not yet have a copy of the press release, you may download it from TSMC's website at www.tsmc.com.

尚未獲得新聞稿副本的參與者請注意，您可以從台積電網站 www.tsmc.com 下載。

Please also download the summary slides in relation to today's quarterly review presentation.

另請下載與今天的季度回顧演示相關的摘要幻燈片。

Once again, the URL is www.tsmc.com.

再一次，URL 是 www.tsmc.com。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr. Elizabeth Sun, TSMC's Head of Investor Relations, for the cautionary statement before the main presentation by Ms. Ho and Dr. Tsai.

我現在想把會議交給台積電投資者關係負責人 Elizabeth Sun 博士，在何女士和蔡博士的主要演講之前發表警告性聲明。

Good morning and good evening to all participants.

祝所有參與者早上好，晚上好。

This is Elizabeth Sun.

這是伊麗莎白孫。

Before we begin, I would like to state that the management's comments about TSMC's current expectations made during this conference call are forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想聲明，管理層在本次電話會議期間對台積電當前預期的評論屬於前瞻性陳述，存在重大風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異.

The information as to those factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from TSMC's forward-looking statements may be found in TSMC's annual report on Form 20-F, filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on May 16, 2005, TSMC's registration statement on form F-3, filed with the SEC on July 5, 2005, and such other documents as TSMC may file with or submit to the SEC from time to time.

有關可能導致實際結果與台積電的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的因素的信息，請參見台積電於 2005 年 5 月 16 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告，台積電註冊2005 年 7 月 5 日向 SEC 提交的 F-3 表上的聲明，以及台積電可能不時向 SEC 提交或提交的其他文件。

Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

Now I would like to turn the conference call over to Ms. Lora Ho, our Chief Financial Officer and Vice President.

現在我想將電話會議轉交給我們的首席財務官兼副總裁 Lora Ho 女士。

Thank you, Elizabeth.

謝謝你，伊麗莎白。

Good morning and good evening to everyone.

大家早上好，晚上好。

Welcome to the TSMC fourth quarter earnings conference call.

歡迎參加台積電第四季度財報電話會議。

I will first go over the fourth quarter 2005 results and then our first-quarter 2006 guidance.

我將首先介紹 2005 年第四季度的業績，然後是 2006 年第一季度的指導。

I will keep my comments relatively brief to allow as much time is possible for Q&A.

我將保持我的評論相對簡短，以便有盡可能多的時間進行問答。

We have prepared some slides on TSMC's website for you to reference as you listen to the conference call.

我們在台積電網站上準備了一些幻燈片，供您在收聽電話會議時參考。

The pages will be flipped automatically as I go through them.

當我瀏覽它們時，頁面將自動翻轉。

All dollar figures are in NT dollars in my presentation unless otherwise stated.

除非另有說明，否則我的演示文稿中的所有美元數字均以新台幣為單位。

On the heels of a solid third quarter, we were able to deliver another set of strong results in the fourth quarter.

在第三季度穩健之後，我們能夠在第四季度取得另一套強勁的業績。

Q4 revenue came in at slightly over NT$81 [billion], above the high end of our previous guidance by approximately NT$2 billion.

第四季度收入略高於新台幣 81 [00 億] 元，比我們先前指導的高端高出約 20 億新台幣。

The stronger result was mainly due to a stronger-than-expected demand across all major product segments.

強勁的業績主要是由於所有主要產品領域的需求都強於預期。

We also posted strong bottom-line results, with earnings per share coming in at NT$1.37.

我們還公佈了強勁的底線業績，每股收益為新台幣 1.37 元。

We achieved those results with a utilization rate of 104%, which was 8 percentage points higher than Q3.

我們以 104% 的利用率實現了這些結果，比第三季度高出 8 個百分點。

As a result of strong cash flow generated from our operations, we ended the fourth quarter with NT$132 billion in cash and short-term investments.

由於我們的運營產生了強勁的現金流，我們在第四季度結束時擁有新台幣 1,320 億元的現金和短期投資。

Our return on equity continued to rise with Q4 ROE of 31.7%.

我們的股本回報率繼續上升，第四季度 ROE 為 31.7%。

Now let's take a closer look at our income statement.

現在讓我們仔細看看我們的損益表。

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, we posted 17% growth in net sales, driven by a 30% increase in revenue from computer applications, followed by an 18% increase in communications and a 6% increase in consumer applications.

與上一季度相比，我們公佈了淨銷售額增長 17%，這主要得益於計算機應用收入增長 30%，其次是通信增長 18%，消費應用增長 6%。

Gross margin improved by 5 percentage points to 49.1%, which was at the high end of our guidance.

毛利率提高 5 個百分點至 49.1%，處於我們指引的高端。

This was largely due to higher utilization levels and a more variable exchange rate.

這主要是由於更高的利用率水平和更可變的匯率。

Operating margin was slightly above 42%, which was about 2 percentage points higher than our guidance.

營業利潤率略高於 42%，比我們的預期高出約 2 個百分點。

Income from nonoperating assets, including investment income recognized on the equity method, was slightly over NT$1 billion for the quarter, reflecting better operating results from all manufacturing affiliates, gains realized on sales of fixed assets, and settlement payment received from SMIC.

包括以權益法確認的投資收益在內的營業外資產收入在本季度略高於新台幣 10 億元，反映了所有製造關聯公司的良好經營業績、出售固定資產實現的收益以及收到中芯國際的結算款項。

As a result of strong revenue growth and operating efficiencies, our net income grew 38% sequentially, [while] net margin of 41.8%.

由於強勁的收入增長和運營效率，我們的淨收入環比增長 38%，[而] 淨利潤率為 41.8%。

On page 6, our fourth-quarter results also compare favorably on a year-over-year basis.

在第 6 頁，我們的第四季度業績與去年同期相比也表現出色。

Let me just highlight a couple of key items.

讓我只強調幾個關鍵項目。

Gross margin improved by 6.6 percentage points, largely due to a 16 percentage point rise in utilization.

毛利率提高了 6.6 個百分點，主要是由於利用率提高了 16 個百分點。

Operating expenses declined in both absolute dollar terms and as a percentage of sales.

營業費用以絕對美元計算和占銷售額的百分比均有所下降。

As we have increased our R&D spending on 65 nanometer, we have also reduced the need to spend on R&D related to 90 nanometer.

隨著我們增加了 65 納米的研發支出，我們也減少了與 90 納米相關的研發支出。

In addition, we no longer need to carry any operating expense related to Fab 14.

此外，我們不再需要承擔與 Fab 14 相關的任何運營費用。

Income from nonoperating items improved due to gain realized from sales of fixed assets and settlement payment received from SMIC.

營業外收入因出售固定資產實現收益及收到中芯國際結算款項而有所改善。

Meanwhile, investment income declined, in part due to lower operating profit from WaferTech and Vanguard.

與此同時，投資收入下降，部分原因是 WaferTech 和 Vanguard 的營業利潤下降。

Due to higher income levels, our net tax expenses increased by $1.6 billion.

由於收入水平較高，我們的淨稅費增加了 16 億美元。

Now let me turn to our balance sheet.

現在讓我談談我們的資產負債表。

Our financial position remained very strong.

我們的財務狀況仍然非常強勁。

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, we substantially increased our cash and short-term investments, in spite of paying down $10.5 billion in corporate bonds.

儘管支付了 105 億美元的公司債券，但與上一季度相比，我們大幅增加了現金和短期投資。

In the meantime, we also kept our accounts receivable and inventory relatively flat on a combined basis.

與此同時，我們還保持應收賬款和庫存相對平穩。

During the fourth quarter of 2005, we further improved our accounts receivable turnover days by four days from the level in the previous quarter, reflecting better collection efforts.

2005 年第四季度，我們的應收賬款周轉天數比上一季度進一步提高了 4 天，這體現了更好的催收力度。

Our inventory turnover increased by two days Q-over-Q, but it was still well within our normal range.

我們的庫存周轉率環比增加了兩天，但仍在我們的正常範圍內。

The increase in inventory turnover days was largely due to the increased percentage of sales for advanced technologies.

庫存周轉天數的增加主要是由於先進技術的銷售百分比增加。

Now let me talk a little bit about our cash flows.

現在讓我談談我們的現金流。

We continue to generate strong operating cash flow.

我們繼續產生強勁的經營現金流。

Operating cash flows generated during the fourth quarter was NT$49 billion.

第四季度產生的經營現金流為新台幣 490 億元。

We also paid down NT$10.5 billion in corporate bonds and spent NT$13.3 billion in capital expenditures during the fourth quarter.

第四季度，我們還償還了新台幣 105 億元的公司債券和新台幣 133 億元的資本支出。

As a result, our overall cash increased by NT$27 billion during the fourth quarter.

因此，我們的整體現金在第四季度增加了新台幣 270 億元。

Our installed capacity came in 1.6 million 8-inch equivalent wafers in Q4, and we expect a small net increase in [fabs] in Q1 as we continue to ramp up our 12-inch capacity.

我們第四季度的裝機容量為 160 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓，隨著我們繼續提高 12 英寸產能，我們預計第一季度 [fabs] 將出現小幅淨增長。

Now please turn to our capital expenditures.

現在請轉向我們的資本支出。

Our CapEx for the fourth quarter was US$396 million.

我們第四季度的資本支出為 3.96 億美元。

Total CapEx for the year came in at about US$2.5 billion, which was within the range we guided at the beginning of 2005.

當年的總資本支出約為 25 億美元，這在我們 2005 年初指導的範圍內。

Now let me quickly go through the sales breakdown by technology, application, customer, and geography.

現在讓我快速瀏覽一下按技術、應用、客戶和地理位置劃分的銷售細分。

For more detailed information, please refer to our management report.

更多詳細信息，請參閱我們的管理報告。

We continue to make good progress on ramping up our 90 nanometers.

我們繼續在提高 90 納米技術方面取得良好進展。

Revenue from 90 nanometer accounted for 17% of the total wafer sales, up from 10% in the previous quarter.

90 納米的收入佔晶圓總銷售額的 17%，高於上一季度的 10%。

Revenue from advanced technologies was [the same] at 49% of total wafer sales during the quarter.

本季度來自先進技術的收入[相同]佔晶圓總銷售額的 49%。

In terms of applications, we saw strength in our major product applications across the board.

在應用方面，我們看到了我們的主要產品應用的全面優勢。

Computer applications had the strongest momentum.

計算機應用的發展勢頭最為強勁。

As a result, revenue from computer applications increased from 30% in Q3 to 32% of total wafer sales in Q4.

因此，來自計算機應用的收入從第三季度的 30% 增加到第四季度總晶圓銷售額的 32%。

On page 13, let me turn to sales by geography.

在第 13 頁，讓我轉向按地區劃分的銷售。

There was no significant change in this quarter.

本季度無重大變化。

We saw a 2 percentage point increase for North America and a percentage point drop for Europe and Japan.

我們看到北美增長了 2 個百分點，歐洲和日本下降了一個百分點。

During the fourth quarter, business from fabless and system customer accounted for 72 percent of all total wafer revenue, whereas IDM customers account for 28%.

在第四季度，來自無晶圓廠和系統客戶的業務佔所有晶圓總收入的 72%，而 IDM 客戶佔 28%。

Before I go to the next quarter guidance, I would like to take a moment to do a quick recap of 2005. 2005 was another record year for TSMC.

在我進行下一季度的指導之前，我想花點時間快速回顧一下 2005 年。2005 年是台積電又一個創紀錄的一年。

Following a very strong 2004, we managed to post another 3% top-line growth despite an inventory adjustment here in the first half of 2005.

在經歷了非常強勁的 2004 年之後，儘管在 2005 年上半年進行了庫存調整，我們還是成功實現了 3% 的收入增長。

In the U.S. dollar terms, the year-over-year revenue growth was 7.5%, which was in line with the growth of the semiconductor industry, but higher than the growth of (indiscernible) segment.

以美元計算，收入同比增長 7.5%，與半導體行業的增長一致，但高於（音頻音頻不清晰）細分市場的增長。

Year-over-year, our 2005 gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points compared to 2004, despite a drop of 8 percentage points in utilization rates for the whole year.

儘管全年使用率下降了 8 個百分點，但與 2004 年相比，我們 2005 年的毛利率同比提高了 0.6 個百分點。

This reflected our successful year ramp for advanced technologies and continued cost reduction efforts.

這反映了我們在先進技術和持續降低成本方面取得的成功。

At the end of 2005, our total assets exceeded NT$50 billion for the first time in our history.

2005年底，總資產首次突破500億元新台幣。

At the same time, we reduced our total liabilities by NT$27 billion.

同時，我們減少了270億新台幣的總負債。

2005 was also our eighth consecutive year that TSMC delivered positive free cash flow.

2005 年也是台積電連續第八年實現正的自由現金流。

We generated [NT$150 million] in operating cash flow and we also paid [NT$46.5 million] in cash dividends to our shareholders.

我們產生了[新台幣1.5億元]的經營現金流，我們還向我們的股東支付了[新台幣4650萬元]的現金股息。

With that, I will turn to our guidance for the first quarter of 2006.

有了這個，我將轉向我們對 2006 年第一季度的指導。

Based on our current business and foreign exchange rate expectations, we expect revenue to be between 73 to NT$76 billion.

根據我們目前的業務和匯率預期，我們預計收入將在 73 至 760 億新台幣之間。

This represents a quarter-over-quarter 6 to 10 percentage decline.

這代表季度環比下降 6 到 10 個百分點。

However, we anticipate the U.S. dollar to depreciate by more than 4% in this quarter, and that accounts for half of the decline in revenue if we take the midpoint of our guidance.

然而，我們預計本季度美元將貶值 4% 以上，如果我們採用我們指導的中點，這將佔收入下降的一半。

Otherwise, our operating performance should be better than our average seasonal pattern.

否則，我們的經營業績應該會好於我們的平均季節性模式。

Our expectation for gross margin in the first quarter is between 46% and 48%.

我們對第一季度毛利率的預期在 46% 至 48% 之間。

The operating profit margin is expected to be approximately 39%.

營業利潤率預計約為39%。

Capital expenditures for the full 2006 will be in the range of 2.6 to US$2.8 billion.

2006 年全年的資本支出將在 2.6 至 28 億美元之間。

You probably noticed we did not guide in utilization this time.

您可能注意到我們這次沒有指導使用。

The reason is that since our last quarter earnings conference, we have received suggestions from two analysts asking us to stop giving out guidance on utilization.

原因是自我們上個季度的財報會議以來，我們收到了兩位分析師的建議，要求我們停止提供關於利用率的指導。

We pondered about this idea and have decided to try to experiment with the suggestion for this time.

我們對這個想法進行了思考，並決定嘗試嘗試這次的建議。

As you know, today TSMC runs a very complex operation and offers very wide [back channel] technologies.

如你所知，今天台積電運行非常複雜的操作並提供非常廣泛的[反向通道]技術。

The value contribution from different products or different technologies may vary quite a lot.

不同產品或不同技術的價值貢獻可能會有很大差異。

Therefore, it is no longer meaningful to give out an overall utilization rate, which is an average of all these many different technologies.

因此，給出一個總體利用率已經沒有意義了，它是所有這些不同技術的平均值。

Since we are now able to give more guidance on profit than we could do before, we think it is more useful to investors in general that we guided profitability and not the average utilization rate.

由於我們現在能夠提供比以前更多的利潤指導，我們認為總體而言，我們指導盈利能力而不是平均利用率對投資者更有用。

Finally, we have also provided a recap of major TSMC events during the fourth quarter.

最後，我們還回顧了台積電第四季度的主要事件。

I will list them for your own reference.

我將它們列出以供您自己參考。

This ends my presentation today.

今天的演講到此結束。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Operator, please open the floor for questions.

接線員，請開始提問。

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Bhavin Shah, JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）Bhavin Shah，摩根大通。

I want to go back to the question we discussed in the afternoon, if that's okay.

我想回到我們下午討論的問題，如果可以的話。

And that is given 104% utilization, why were you not able to exceed your gross margin guidance?

考慮到 104% 的利用率，為什麼你不能超過你的毛利率指導？

If you can perhaps explain that, that would be helpful.

如果你能解釋一下，那會很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Let me try this one.

讓我試試這個。

As you remember, our guidance for the last quarter profit margin is ranging from 47 to 49%.

如您所知，我們對上一季度利潤率的指導範圍為 47% 至 49%。

If you take the midpoint of that range, that would be 48%.

如果你取該範圍的中點，那將是 48%。

And our actual result for the fourth quarter was 49.1%, which is about a 1.1 percentage point difference than our midpoint of our guidance.

我們第四季度的實際結果為 49.1%，與我們的指導中點相差約 1.1 個百分點。

We also guided 100% utilization in the fourth quarter, which we actually achieved 104.

我們還在第四季度指導了 100% 的利用率，我們實際上達到了 104。

So taking the 4 percentage difference in utilization, that is [probably] explaining the 1.1% in margin difference.

因此，利用 4% 的利用率差異，[可能] 解釋了 1.1% 的利潤率差異。

I think the number is quite close.

我認為這個數字非常接近。

So in other words, you did not face any unusual circumstances, such as scrap wafers or any such other factors that separates the margin upside?

所以換句話說，您沒有遇到任何異常情況，例如廢晶圓或任何其他分隔利潤率上升的因素？

Well, we have some scrap wafers among our fabs, but I think there should not be any scrap wafer that will hurt our margins.

好吧，我們的晶圓廠中有一些廢晶圓，但我認為不應該有任何會損害我們利潤的廢晶圓。

But I think the extent of the scrap may have a couple of tens of points’ impact, but definitely not to the extent of a 1 point type of impact.

但是我認為報廢的程度可能會產生幾十點的影響，但絕對不會達到1點的影響程度。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Timothy Arcuri, Citigroup.

花旗集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

Actually, I had two things.

其實，我有兩件事。

Number one, it looks like you changed the historical capital spending number for the third quarter.

第一，您似乎更改了第三季度的歷史資本支出數字。

I thought the number was 440, and it looks like it got revised down to 320.

我以為這個數字是 440，看起來它被修改為 320。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Which number that you are talking about?

你說的是哪個號碼？

That is the September quarter CapEx.

那是 9 月季度的資本支出。

CapEx number?

資本支出數字？

I thought it was 440 when you reported it and now you list it as 320.

你報的時候我以為是440，現在你把它列為320。

Third quarter CapEx.

第三季度資本支出。

Just give us a second and let's see.

給我們一秒鐘，讓我們看看。

CapEx for 2005 -- my number shows in third quarter our CapEx was 320 million in third quarter.

2005 年資本支出——我的數字顯示第三季度我們的資本支出為 3.2 億美元。

But in second quarter we spent 460.

但在第二季度，我們花了 460。

I am not sure where the number you're looking at -- it is for second quarter instead of third quarter?

我不確定您要查看的數字在哪裡 - 這是第二季度而不是第三季度？

Maybe I had that wrong.

也許我錯了。

I will have to go back and look at that.

我得回去看看。

I guess my other question is, as you look at your CapEx in 2006, two things.

我想我的另一個問題是，當您查看 2006 年的資本支出時，有兩件事。

Number one, do you think it will be more front-half loaded or more back-half loaded?

第一，你認為它會更多前半部分加載還是更多後半部分加載？

And the second question is, relative to your overall guidance of 8 percent up year-over-year CapEx, if you focused on just the equipment piece, which is what is going to really add capacity, will that be up more than 8% or up less than 8%?

第二個問題是，相對於您的總體指導，即資本支出同比增長 8%，如果您只關注將真正增加產能的設備，那麼增長會超過 8% 還是漲不到8%？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay, let me answer your first question first.

好吧，我先回答你的第一個問題。

You're asking whether the CapEx for 2006 is front-end loaded or back-end loaded.

您問的是 2006 年的資本支出是前端加載還是後端加載。

Actually it was quite evenly distributed within four quarters, probably slightly -- just slightly higher in second half.

實際上，它在四個季度內分佈相當均勻，可能略高——下半年略高。

Okay.

好的。

And then relative to the equipment portion of that, will it be up more than the average CapEx or up less?

然後相對於其中的設備部分，它會比平均資本支出增加更多還是更少？

Equipment accounts for the majority of our CapEx, if that is what you're asking.

設備占我們資本支出的大部分，如果這是您所要求的。

What I am actually asking is, is 2006, is there a bigger percentage of equipment in 2006 relative to 2005, or is it a similar percentage year-over-year?

我實際上要問的是，在 2006 年，2006 年的設備百分比是否比 2005 年更大，還是與去年同期的百分比相似？

Okay, let me see.

好吧，讓我看看。

I would say for both years, the percentage of equipment is very similar and also very, very high.

我想說這兩年，設備的百分比非常相似，也非常非常高。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ivan Goh, DRKW.

Ivan Goh，DRKW。

I have just two questions for now.

我現在只有兩個問題。

Firstly, can you perhaps give some idea what kind of -- for sales mix you will see in first quarter, primarily what kind of leading-edge percentage would you expect going into the first quarter?

首先，您能否給出一些想法——對於您將在第一季度看到的銷售組合，主要是您預計進入第一季度的領先百分比是多少？

Second question is, given that utilization now has exceeded 100% and given what you have said about customers' current [stands], meaning that utilization could potentially be sustained at a very high level through 2006, do you expect -- in your CapEx plans, are you buying enough capacity to meet all your customers' demand or do you think you are actually maybe taking a discount off your customers' forecast at this point in time?

第二個問題是，鑑於現在的利用率已經超過 100%，並且考慮到您所說的客戶當前 [立場]，這意味著到 2006 年，利用率可能會保持在非常高的水平，您是否期望在您的資本支出計劃中，您是否購買了足夠的容量來滿足所有客戶的需求，或者您是否認為此時您實際上可能會降低客戶的預測？

Let me answer your first question.

讓我回答你的第一個問題。

You're asking about (indiscernible) percent of revenue, is that going to be growth in first quarter or not?

你問的是收入的（聽不清）百分比，這是否會在第一季度實現增長？

In my presentation, I have mentioned in fourth quarter our 90 nanometer accounts for 17% of our total wafer revenue, which is 7 percentage points higher than third quarter.

在我的演講中，我提到第四季度我們的 90 納米占我們晶圓總收入的 17%，比第三季度高出 7 個百分點。

Now, we see that trend is going to continue in the first quarter.

現在，我們看到這一趨勢將在第一季度繼續。

So the percentages from 90 nanometer is going to continue to improve.

因此，90 納米的百分比將繼續提高。

Maybe, Rick, you can comment on the second question regarding capacity.

也許，Rick，您可以評論關於容量的第二個問題。

We are definitely buying equipment for the 90 nanometer capacity such that we can meet all of our customers' demands.

我們肯定會購買 90 納米容量的設備，以便我們能夠滿足所有客戶的需求。

And we are also buying equipment for 65-nanometer production starting in mid this year, so that we can also in meet customers' demands.

而且我們也在今年年中開始購買65納米生產設備，這樣我們也可以滿足客戶的需求。

And we do have some difficulty in meeting all our customers' demand at the 0.18 -- 0.15 micron technologies.

我們在滿足所有客戶對 0.18 - 0.15 微米技術的需求方面確實存在一些困難。

What we're doing right now is, of course, we have started some outsourcing work with some (indiscernible) in Taiwan.

當然，我們現在正在做的是，我們已經開始與台灣的一些（音頻音頻不清晰）進行一些外包工作。

And we are, of course, doing everything to add incremental capacity.

當然，我們正在盡一切努力增加容量。

And in addition, we do not rule out of looking for other capacity sources in order to fulfill our customers' needs.

此外，我們不排除尋找其他容量來源以滿足客戶的需求。

Can you just elaborate that last point on what you mean by -- what other methods, what other ways would you think about -- could you be looking for other capacity sources?

您能否詳細說明最後一點您的意思——還有哪些其他方法，您會考慮哪些其他方式——您是否正在尋找其他容量來源？

Well, we will see what is available in the market.

好吧，我們將看看市場上有什麼。

Basically, what tools are available which are cost-effective for our business needs?

基本上，有哪些可用的工具對我們的業務需求具有成本效益？

I'd like to follow up to my first question.

我想跟進我的第一個問題。

If you look at 0.13 micron, will that be going up in percentage terms as well in the first quarter?

如果你看一下 0.13 微米，第一季度也會以百分比形式上升嗎？

No. 0.13 and 0.11 micron technology percentage probably would stay about flat or even some minor decline in the first quarter.

0.13 和 0.11 微米的技術百分比可能會在第一季度保持基本持平甚至小幅下降。

This is as a percentage of revenue.

這是收入的百分比。

Am I correct?

我對麼？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Sunil Gupta, Morgan Stanley.

蘇尼爾·古普塔，摩根士丹利。

Rick, (indiscernible), but I just wanted to follow up on one of the earlier questions about the margins.

Rick，（聽不清），但我只是想跟進關於利潤的早期問題之一。

Since we have quite a bit of currency movement in Q4 and in Q1, could you (indiscernible) what is that due to your margin, particularly in Q1, where I think you're factoring in about 4% appreciation in NT dollars?

由於我們在第四季度和第一季度有相當多的貨幣波動，您能否（聽不清）由於您的保證金，特別是在第一季度，我認為您將新台幣升值約 4% 考慮在內？

What does that (indiscernible) do to your gross margin and does that dig into your guidance?

這（聽不清）對您的毛利率有什麼影響，這是否會影響您的指導？

We have mentioned Q1 we anticipate NT dollars appreciate by about 4%.

我們已經提到第一季度我們預計新台幣升值約 4%。

Take a very simple rule of thumb -- if you transfer that number to the [marketing base], approximately 2%.

採取一個非常簡單的經驗法則——如果你將這個數字轉移到[營銷基地]，大約 2%。

And that is the reason for the decline from 49 to 47, not at the midpoint?

這就是從 49 下降到 47 的原因，而不是在中點？

That 4 percentage change in revenue will translate to 2 percentage points of margin change.

這 4% 的收入變化將轉化為 2 個百分點的利潤變化。

Our guidance has already incorporated that impact.

我們的指導已經包含了這種影響。

And my follow-up question is on your capacity.

我的後續問題是關於你的能力。

I noticed that when you provided the Q1 capacity guidance, your capacity at fab 5 and fab 8 has actually gone up compared to Q4.

我注意到，當您提供第一季度產能指導時，您在 5 號晶圓廠和 8 號晶圓廠的產能實際上比第四季度有所上升。

Can you give me any sense how are you achieving that?

你能告訴我你是如何實現這一目標的嗎？

Is it more equipment that you're adding or the change in mix or debottlenecking?

是您要添加更多設備，還是改變混合或消除瓶頸？

We continue to debottleneck and we've got incremental capacity adjustments, so we can optimize -- let's say maximize capacity on the 0.18 (indiscernible).

我們繼續消除瓶頸，並且我們已經進行了增量容量調整，因此我們可以優化——假設在 0.18 上最大化容量（聽不清）。

That's what we have been doing the last year.

這就是我們去年一直在做的事情。

And would you say that from the current level, do you have room to improve it further in the year, particularly on your 8-inch fabs?

您是否會說，從目前的水平來看，您今年是否還有進一步改進的空間，尤其是在您的 8 英寸晶圓廠？

I would say yes.

我會說是的。

I cannot say exactly how much, but I would say yes, the fabs have the instruction definitely to begin to improve the throughput of the bottlenecked machine and also to improve the backup efficiency among different fabs in the HsinChu -- I mean, in Taiwan.

我不能確切地說出多少，但我會說是的，晶圓廠肯定有指令開始提高瓶頸機器的吞吐量，並提高新竹不同晶圓廠之間的備份效率 - 我是說台灣。

So the productivity improvement and the backup efficiency, I think, will give us incremental capacity as the year goes on.

因此，我認為，隨著時間的推移，生產力的提高和備份效率將為我們提供增量容量。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Andrew Biggs, Susquehanna International Group.

Susquehanna 國際集團的 Andrew Biggs。

I see your forecast for 1.3% sequential growth in capacity in Q1, and I am assuming that is net of maintenance.

我看到您對第一季度產能連續增長 1.3% 的預測，我假設這是扣除維護後的結果。

I'm wondering what the actual number would be in Q1 in terms of incremental wafer starts over the quarter, or wafer capacity.

我想知道第一季度的實際數字是多少，就本季度增加的晶圓開工量或晶圓產能而言。

We actually -- now we do not have our annual maintenance all concentrated in the first quarter.

實際上，我們現在沒有將年度維護全部集中在第一季度。

And frankly speaking, I don't have all the schedules of our annual maintenance at hand.

坦率地說，我手頭沒有我們年度維護的所有時間表。

I believe now they are more spread out over the year, a period of two to three quarters.

我相信現在它們在一年中更加分散，兩到三個季度。

So I think the impact for one particular quarter is not as big as we usually have, say --.

因此，我認為對某個特定季度的影響並不像我們通常那樣大，比如說——。

If you were to amortize that over the course of the year then, what would be one quarter of that?

如果你要在一年中攤銷，那麼四分之一是多少？

Another way to put that, what would be the percentage of your capacity that would be potentially off-line during a given year?

另一種說法是，在給定的一年中，您可能離線的容量百分比是多少？

The way you calculate, probably, I think the average days for the year, annual maintenance probably two to three days.

按你計算的方式，大概，我覺得一年的平均天數，每年維護大概兩到三天。

You can just amortize that over the four quarters.

你可以在四個季度內攤銷。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Fayad Abbasi, Neuberger Berman.

法亞德·阿巴西，紐伯格·伯曼。

A couple questions.

幾個問題。

Given that you have a full year forecast on the CapEx, I was wondering if you could maybe talk a little bit about what the full-year forecast could be for your depreciation and capacity as well.

鑑於您對資本支出有全年預測，我想知道您是否可以談談您的折舊和產能的全年預測。

Okay.

好的。

With the 2.6 to 2.8 billion CapEx, we expect the capacity will increase to 6.9 million pieces of TSMC managed wafer in total.

憑藉 2.6 至 28 億的資本支出，我們預計總產能將增加到 690 萬片台積電託管晶圓。

This number compared to last year is about 1 million pieces increase, actually, representing around 16% increase in capacity.

這個數字與去年相比增加了大約 100 萬件，實際上相當於增加了 16% 左右的產能。

In terms of depreciation, we do not see any major increase in depreciation in spite of 2.6 to 2.8 [billion] CapEx investment.

在折舊方面，儘管有 2.6 至 28 億 [十億] 的資本支出投資，但我們認為折舊沒有任何重大增加。

The reason is that we still have some 8 inch coming down from depreciation.

原因是我們仍有大約 8 英寸從折舊中下降。

Although the CapEx will increase depreciation somewhat, we also have some reduction in depreciation.

雖然資本支出會在一定程度上增加折舊，但我們也有一些折舊減少。

So net of that, the total depreciation will remain at a very similar level to 2005.

因此，除此之外，總折舊將保持在與 2005 年非常相似的水平。

Okay.

好的。

Could you also talk about looking at your CapEx on a quarterly basis, and we had very little spending in TSMC Shanghai.

您能否也談談按季度查看您的資本支出，我們在台積電上海的支出很少。

Maybe you could talk a little bit about what the spending outlook would be for that fab in 2006.

也許你可以談談 2006 年該晶圓廠的支出前景。

We do not disclose quarterly CapEx, but I can tell you it is very much evenly distributed in different four quarters.

我們不披露季度資本支出，但我可以告訴你，它非常均勻地分佈在不同的四個季度。

Perhaps just slightly higher in the second half, but --

下半場可能會稍微高一點，但是——

For TSMC Shanghai specifically?

專門針對台積電上海？

Let me see.

讓我看看。

For TSMC Shanghai -- of the 2.6 billion, TSMC Shanghai is a very small number -- it's only [13] million.

對於台積電上海——在 26 億中，台積電上海是一個非常小的數字——它只有 [13] 百萬。

So are you deemphasizing, then, the ramp-up of capacity there?

那麼，您是否不再強調那裡的產能增加？

Maybe you could talk a little bit about what is happening with that.

也許你可以談談正在發生的事情。

No, we are actually moving our equipment from Taiwan to Shanghai.

不，我們實際上是把我們的設備從台灣搬到上海。

We shouldn't see it in the CapEx line then?

那麼我們不應該在資本支出行中看到它嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Robert Maire, Needham.

羅伯特·梅爾，尼達姆。

Could you tell us about what you are seeing in terms of inventory out there going into the first quarter of '06, both die banks, finished goods, maybe if you could give us some idea by product type how that is holding up.

您能否告訴我們您在 06 年第一季度的庫存方面看到了什麼，包括模具庫、成品，也許您可以按產品類型給我們一些想法，這是如何保持的。

It is difficult for us to really give you data from product type.

我們很難真正為您提供產品類型的數據。

What we are observing from our customers is after the fourth quarter, overall their inventory days have declined compared to three months earlier.

我們從客戶那裡觀察到的是，在第四季度之後，他們的庫存天數總體上比三個月前有所下降。

And also, from talking to the customers directly, that's also the input we have been getting.

而且，通過直接與客戶交談，這也是我們得到的輸入。

I think there is also -- there is some, of course, concern on the inventory at back end (indiscernible).

我認為還有——當然，對後端的庫存有一些擔憂（聽不清）。

I believe that that part is minor.

我相信那部分是次要的。

So our outlook for the first quarter inventory is good.

所以我們對第一季度庫存的展望是好的。

That is the major reason why we are looking -- we are seeing a pretty good first quarter (indiscernible).

這就是我們尋找的主要原因——我們看到第一季度的表現非常好（聽不清）。

Okay, I wasn't quite clear on that.

好吧，我不是很清楚。

So you think that the inventory level of semiconductors at your customers is actually a little bit lower in the first quarter than it was in the fourth quarter?

因此，您認為您客戶的半導體庫存水平在第一季度實際上比第四季度低一點？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Mehdi Hosseini, FBR.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼，FBR。

I have a couple of questions.

我有一些問題。

If you could elaborate on 65-nanometer capacity by the end of this year.

如果你能在今年年底之前詳細說明 65 納米的容量。

And to that extent, would you expect capital intensity to increase as you bring on 65 nanometer?

在這種情況下，您是否預計隨著 65 納米技術的推出，資本密集度會增加？

In other words, would you have to spend more for every increment of 1K capacity?

換句話說，每增加 1K 容量，您是否需要花費更多？

Second question has to do with some of the commentary from your presentation earlier this morning regarding ASP trends into Q1 and ASP going down.

第二個問題與您今天上午早些時候關於 ASP 趨勢進入第一季度和 ASP 下降的一些評論有關。

So with these kind of utilization rates, why would ASP go down?

那麼在這樣的利用率下，為什麼平均售價會下降呢？

And the third and last question, would you expect any kind of change to incoming wafer orders post lunar year?

第三個也是最後一個問題，您預計在農曆年後收到的晶圓訂單會有任何變化嗎？

In other words, do you think that your customers are going to wait and see what the demand in Asia is going to be post lunar year and then, to that extent, make any changes?

換句話說，您是否認為您的客戶會等著看亞洲的需求在農曆年後會有什麼變化，然後在某種程度上做出改變？

Okay.

好的。

First question is about the 65 nanometer investment.

第一個問題是關於 65 納米的投資。

Well, we will be starting the 65 nanometer production capacity investment in mid-year.

那麼，我們將在年中開始65納米的產能投資。

The capacity at the end of the year is, I think, still in the (indiscernible) 3K per month range -- maybe plus somewhat.

我認為，今年年底的容量仍然在（聽不清）每月 3K 的範圍內——也許還會增加一些。

So it is here not a big capacity number.

所以這裡不是一個很大的容量數字。

However, as you probably know also, for the capital intensity that is here, (indiscernible) per 1000 wafer per month capacity.

但是，您可能也知道，對於這裡的資本密集度，（聽不清）每月每 1000 片晶圓的產能。

That number is much higher when the overall capacity is low.

當整體容量較低時，這個數字要高得多。

That is, on 3K or (indiscernible) range, that is pretty high.

也就是說，在 3K 或（聽不清）範圍內，這是相當高的。

But this number will go down very rapidly when we start to ramp into, for instance, 10K, 15K range.

但是，當我們開始進入例如 10K、15K 範圍時，這個數字會迅速下降。

That is the first question, right?

這是第一個問題，對吧？

The second question asking about we have mentioned ASP going down, too now remember we have mentioned ASP trends.

第二個問題是關於我們提到 ASP 下降，現在還記得我們提到過 ASP 趨勢。

Actually since last quarter, we have stopped guiding any ASP trends.

實際上，自上個季度以來，我們已經停止指導任何 ASP 趨勢。

I think we certainly comment more.

我認為我們肯定會發表更多評論。

Of course, because you're asking whether -- I think overall for the year, our industry, we do not raise prices when the capacity is tight.

當然，因為您要問是否--我認為總體而言，就我們的行業而言，當產能緊張時，我們不會提高價格。

It is not a case like a DRAM.

它不像DRAM那樣的情況。

The pricing pressure, as we also said (indiscernible) a couple of times.

定價壓力，正如我們也說過（聽不清）幾次。

For instance, the pricing pressure for 90 nanometer remains high.

例如，90 納米的定價壓力仍然很高。

It is still a very competitive environment in the industry.

它仍然是行業競爭非常激烈的環境。

We are -- so that is why we said our 90 nanometer gross margin is lower than the Company overall gross margin.

我們是——這就是為什麼我們說我們的 90 納米毛利率低於公司的整體毛利率。

However the price of the 90 nanometer is still good enough for us to maintain our better than 20% target of ROE. (multiple speakers) your question?

然而，90 納米的價格仍然足以讓我們維持優於 20% 的 ROE 目標。 （多位發言者）您的問題？

The last question has to do with your expectation about incoming wafer start orders post lunar year.

最後一個問題與您對農曆年後收到的晶圓開始訂單的預期有關。

Do you think that your customers are going to wait to see what the demand is going to be and to what extent they would have to change inventories?

您是否認為您的客戶會等著看需求會是什麼，以及他們必須在多大程度上改變庫存？

And that has an impact on your Q1 revenue guidance, which is down 8%.

這對您的第一季度收入指導產生了影響，下降了 8%。

The ordering pattern, if you think about lunar Chinese New Year, which is actually two days from today -- or three days, the order for the Chinese New Year, the wafer [out] for the Chinese New Year, since this must be sometime late -- the latest -- probably sometime late December or at the latest early January.

訂購模式，如果您考慮農曆春節，實際上是從今天起兩天 - 或三天，中國新年的訂單，中國新年的晶片[out]，因為這一定是某個時間遲到——最遲——可能是十二月下旬的某個時候或最遲一月初。

But the ordering pattern that we have been seeing through the Novembers/December into January time has been fairly steady, pretty good.

但從 11 月/12 月到 1 月，我們一直看到的訂購模式相當穩定，相當不錯。

So we do not seen an abrupt change in the ordering pattern during the last three months.

因此，在過去三個月中，我們沒有看到訂購模式發生突然變化。

If I may have a follow-up, does that mean that with flattish ASPs for Q1, your wafer shipment is going to be down about 8%?

如果我可以跟進，這是否意味著第一季度平均售價持平，您的晶圓出貨量將下降約 8%？

No, that is not what we said.

不，這不是我們所說的。

We just give guidance in the range of 6 to 10% decline in revenue, and exchange rates (indiscernible) roughly half of that number.

我們只是在收入下降 6% 到 10% 的範圍內給出指導，而匯率（聽不清）大約是這個數字的一半。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Michael McConnell, Pacific Crest Securities.

邁克爾·麥康奈爾，Pacific Crest 證券。

I was curious that it looks like you're not, obviously, providing wafer ASP trends anymore, wafer shipments utilization.

我很好奇，顯然您似乎不再提供晶圓 ASP 趨勢，即晶圓出貨利用率。

Can you at least talk about Q1, what you're seeing from the end markets?

您能否至少談談第一季度，您從終端市場看到了什麼？

End markets?

終端市場？

I think the Q1, as we all know, is the seasonally declining quarter for most of the applications.

我認為，眾所周知，第一季度是大多數應用程序的季節性下降季度。

What we are seeing from the computer segment and for the consumer segment, our demand is better than the normal seasonal patterns.

我們從計算機領域和消費者領域看到，我們的需求好於正常的季節性模式。

For the communications segment, both wireless and wireline, we are seeing a seasonal declining pattern, a normal seasonal declining pattern.

對於無線和有線通信領域，我們看到了季節性下降模式，這是一種正常的季節性下降模式。

So I would characterize a better-than-expected end market demand in this first quarter.

因此，我認為第一季度終端市場需求好於預期。

Within the PC market, is the majority of the demand coming from the chipset customers?

在 PC 市場中，大部分需求來自芯片組客戶嗎？

I would not say majority, because in the PC segment, actually our largest demand has always been the graphic applications.

我不會說大多數，因為在PC領域，實際上我們最大的需求一直是圖形應用程序。

Chipset of course is significant.

芯片組當然很重要。

We are feeling, I would say, pretty robust demand from graphics because of the many new product offerings from the customers.

我想說，由於客戶提供了許多新產品，我們感覺到圖形的需求非常強勁。

The chipset demand is also strong from our customer base, I believe mainly because of the change in the supply dynamic.

我們的客戶群對芯片組的需求也很強勁，我相信這主要是因為供應動態的變化。

As you know, one of the -- not one of the -- the largest chipset supplier has reduced their output for chipsets, and that creates a void which is actually quite difficult to fill.

如您所知，最大的芯片組供應商之一（不是最大的芯片組供應商之一）減少了芯片組的產量，這造成了實際上很難填補的空白。

And then within consumer, we have been picking up DVD is a little bit weaker, but CMOS image sensors relatively strong.

然後在消費類方面，我們一直在撿 DVD 有點弱，但是 CMOS 圖像傳感器比較強。

Can you comment there kind if those are the dynamics playing out in consumer in Q1?

如果這些是第一季度消費者的動態，你能評論一下嗎？

The consumer segment, we are seeing a very good demand from digital TV chips; we are seeing a strong pickup.

消費領域，我們看到數字電視芯片的需求非常好；我們看到強勁的回升。

We are seeing a pretty good digital camera demand.

我們看到了相當不錯的數碼相機需求。

CMOS sensor (indiscernible) continue to do well.

CMOS 傳感器（聽不清）繼續表現良好。

Even for DVD players, we're not seeing a weak demand.

即使對於 DVD 播放器，我們也沒有看到需求疲軟。

We're not seeing a weak demand.

我們沒有看到需求疲軟。

It is fairly good.

這是相當不錯的。

It is pretty good, actually.

實際上，這還不錯。

And then in communications, and I will go away.

然後在通訊中，我會離開。

Would you characterize the seasonality more acute on the wireless side or the wireline side?

您會在無線端還是有線端更強烈地描述季節性？

Both are showing the seasonal decline.

兩者都顯示出季節性下降。

Wireless -- actually, some people were asking this afternoon -- I came back and took another look.

無線——實際上，今天下午有些人在問——我回來又看了一眼。

I noticed during the last -- for both 2004 and 2005, for instance, the handset -- first quarter growth rate for the handset has been net around minus 5% to -10% from unit point of view.

我注意到在上一個時期——例如，對於 2004 年和 2005 年，手機——第一季度手機的淨增長率從單位角度來看是負 5% 到 -10% 左右。

We are -- I do not have the very quantitational number for our shipments, but my observation is our shipment for the handset type of devices is declining at a similar rate.

我們是 - 我沒有非常量化的出貨量，但我的觀察是我們的手機類型設備的出貨量正在以類似的速度下降。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much for the color.

非常感謝你的顏色。

Shekhar Pramanick, Moors & Cabot.

Shekhar Pramanick，摩爾和卡博特。

Rick, couple of questions.

瑞克，幾個問題。

You know, '05 was a year where TSMC, after a long time, the growth rate was in line with the semiconductor growth rate, particularly in dollar terms.

要知道，05年是台積電經過很長一段時間後，增長率與半導體增長率一致的一年，尤其是以美元計算。

Do you see '06 as you go back to the pattern, where you will be basically exceeding the semiconductor growth rate because you're picking up some extra outsourcing, which previously had been talked about?

當你回到 06 年的模式時，你是否認為你將基本上超過半導體的增長率，因為你正在接受一些額外的外包，這在之前已經被討論過？

And then I have another question.

然後我有另一個問題。

Yes, we do expect TSMC to grow better in 2006 compared to the overall semiconductor industry.

是的，與整個半導體行業相比，我們確實預計台積電在 2006 年的增長會更好。

Yes, we fully expect that and we are fully committed to make that happen.

是的，我們完全期待這一點，並且我們完全致力於實現這一目標。

Okay.

好的。

And if that happens, where do you think the upside is going to come from?

如果發生這種情況，您認為上行空間將來自哪裡？

Is it going to come from memory or come from a particular handset -- 3G handsets -- or maybe sort of segment, if you could give us the color.

它是來自記憶還是來自特定的手機 - 3G 手機 - 或者可能是某種細分，如果你能給我們顏色的話。

Probably not from memory.

可能不是憑記憶。

We are doing some memory but I think the [margins] are not big enough to have such a strong impact to our business.

我們正在做一些記憶，但我認為 [利潤] 還不足以對我們的業務產生如此強烈的影響。

I think we will continue seeing the strong demand, but the momentum in the second half of last year basically will carry themselves into this year.

我認為我們將繼續看到強勁的需求，但去年下半年的勢頭基本會延續到今年。

I see them basically across the board.

我基本上全面地看到了它們。

As an example, we were asked about here first quarter consumer products.

例如，我們在這裡被問及第一季度的消費品。

We were quite happy to see that the digital TV chip demand as we come up quite nicely.

我們很高興看到數字電視芯片的需求非常好。

My last question, the CapEx of 2.6 to 2.8 billion, is that a more of a conservative call at your part at this point or would we expect that to upside?

我的最後一個問題是 2.6 到 28 億的資本支出，這對你來說是一個更保守的說法，還是我們預計它會上漲？

Or is it just right?

還是剛剛好？

As far as we can see now, it's about just right.

就我們現在所看到的而言，它剛剛好。

We are not trying to be conservative.

我們並不想保守。

As I've said several times, we are -- we will be adding advanced technology capacity so that we will compete aggressively in the market.

正如我多次說過的那樣，我們將增加先進的技術能力，以便我們在市場上積極競爭。

And we will meet all our customers' demands.

我們將滿足所有客戶的需求。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Mark FitzGerald, Banc of America.

美國銀行的馬克·菲茨杰拉德。

And I was curious if you could give us a split on the CapEx spending between the advanced technology, the 65/90, and any spending that might happen in the older technologies in 2006.

我很好奇你能否讓我們在先進技術、65/90 和 2006 年可能發生在舊技術中的任何支出之間分配資本支出。

I probably cannot give you a breakout among each technologies, but I can tell you that 95% of our CapEx in 2006 will be 12-inch product related.

我可能無法為您提供每種技術的突破，但我可以告訴您，我們 2006 年 95% 的資本支出將與 12 英寸產品相關。

That includes the capacity, the equipment, R&D, and everything associated with 12 inch.

這包括容量、設備、研發以及與 12 英寸相關的一切。

It sounds like you're not going to add much capacity in the older technologies at this point then.

聽起來您此時不會在舊技術中增加太多容量。

I'm curious if there's any explanation given the kind of high utilization rates.

考慮到這種高利用率，我很好奇是否有任何解釋。

I think that is a very good question.

我認為這是一個非常好的問題。

The truth [in margins] -- we had some discussion just earlier in the conference call.

真相[邊緣]——我們在電話會議的早些時候進行了一些討論。

Right now, we are not budgeting much for the mature technology capacity, since we do not have a clear picture as to where to get them.

目前，我們沒有為成熟的技術能力做太多預算，因為我們不清楚從哪裡獲得它們。

But what I can say here is if we can find a reasonable [force] of the mature technology capacity, we will go and acquire those.

但是在這裡我可以說的是，如果我們能找到成熟技術能力的合理[力量]，我們就會去獲取那些。

So basically, is it your view that there is plenty of capacity outside of TSMC and you would be more inclined to acquire it than to put it in place?

所以基本上，您是否認為台積電之外有大量產能，您更傾向於獲得它而不是放置它？

That is something we're not sure of right now.

這是我們現在不確定的事情。

There is probably still some outside, but it is not plenty, I don't think.

外面可能還有一些，但不是很多，我不認為。

Okay.

好的。

Can you just give us an indication on the bonuses this year?

你能告訴我們今年的獎金嗎？

Are we going to be heavily cash oriented?

我們會非常注重現金嗎？

Have you moved over to that strategy or will there still be a big stock component?

您是否已轉向該策略，還是仍會有大量庫存？

For this year, it will be 50-50 percent for each.

今年，這將是每個人的 50-50%。

As we have said, the policy of two years ago is 50-50 is going to continue for two years.

正如我們所說，兩年前的50-50政策將持續兩年。

This is the second year.

這是第二年。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Bhavin Shah, JPMorgan.

Bhavin Shah，摩根大通。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

My question is answered.

我的問題得到了回答。

Sunil Gupta, Morgan Stanley.

蘇尼爾·古普塔，摩根士丹利。

Rick, I have two industry product questions for you, just given your (indiscernible) array of the end markets.

里克，我有兩個行業產品問題要問你，只是給出了你（聽不清）的終端市場數組。

You mentioned earlier about pricing pressure at the leading-edge.

您之前提到過前沿的定價壓力。

And you said in the afternoon call it's sort of the normal kind of pressure that you have been seeing for some time now.

你在下午的電話中說，這是你已經看到一段時間的正常壓力。

On 90 nano and 110 nano, I also understand that given the whole range of services that you offer, you decided premium was (indiscernible) compared to also attempt to offer same services.

在 90 nano 和 110 nano 上，我還了解到，鑑於您提供的所有服務範圍，您認為與嘗試提供相同服務相比，溢價是（聽不清）。

So when you're talking about this pricing pressures, are you seeing the whole industry experiencing similar pressures or is it that in the premium pricing that you had or some of your competitors, that premium is mattering some more?

因此，當您談論這種定價壓力時，您是否看到整個行業都面臨著類似的壓力，還是在您或您的一些競爭對手的溢價定價中，溢價更重要？

I think we continue to get our, as you said, premium in pricing over that of our competitors.

正如您所說，我認為我們繼續獲得我們的定價高於競爭對手的溢價。

So I don't see that being impacted.

所以我認為這不會受到影響。

I think we are getting probably in some cases better than our normal premium, as you said.

正如你所說，我認為我們在某些情況下可能比我們的正常保費更好。

It is just -- I think you know, as well as we do, at least during the last year, many people were saying that they can do 90 nanometer production, and that definitely created the expectation among the customers, which, of course, in turn creates the pressure.

只是——我想你知道，和我們一樣，至少在去年，很多人都說他們可以生產 90 納米，這無疑創造了客戶的期望，當然，反過來又會產生壓力。

Basically, I think, we have performed very well during last year, both in ranking and in yields, in achieving the excellent yields.

基本上，我認為，我們在去年的表現非常好，無論是在排名還是在產量上，都取得了優異的產量。

As a result, I think the impact on our gross margin was not as difficult as we thought it might be, and we see this trend going into the year 2006.

因此，我認為對我們毛利率的影響並不像我們想像的那麼嚴重，我們看到這種趨勢將持續到 2006 年。

Okay, great.

好，太棒了。

And another industry question just as a follow-up.

另一個行業問題只是作為後續問題。

You also mentioned earlier in the afternoon when you were asked about the industry outlook for 2006 that the global semiconductor market should grow by, I think, high single digits, low double digits.

您在下午早些時候被問及 2006 年行業前景時也提到，我認為全球半導體市場應該以高個位數、低兩位數的速度增長。

If I just take the 10% as maybe a midpoint, 10 or 11% a midpoint.

如果我只是將 10% 作為中點，10% 或 11% 作為中點。

Since you have (indiscernible) to a whole range of customers, do you see any possibility based what you're hearing from your customers that the industry growth rate may turn out to be significantly different from this, such as maybe more than 15, 18% kind of a growth scenario?

由於您擁有（聽不清）所有客戶，根據您從客戶那裡聽到的信息，您是否認為行業增長率可能與此有顯著差異，例如可能超過 15、18 % 的增長情景？

Your question is on which segment?

你的問題是在哪個部分？

For the global semiconductor.

為全球半導體。

You mentioned earlier that this could grow by say perhaps 10% in 2006.

您之前提到，2006 年這可能會增長 10%。

And I'm wondering is there a possibility that the growth rate may be significantly higher, say, more than 15%?

我想知道增長率是否有可能顯著提高，比如超過 15%？

What would be required for that to happen?

發生這種情況需要什麼？

We don't see that now.

我們現在看不到這一點。

We looked at -- we do have a model to look at these growth rate forecasts.

我們查看了 - 我們確實有一個模型來查看這些增長率預測。

You know, we still believe 2006 will be -- 10, 11% is a reasonably good growth year, considering some of the macroeconomic factors, such as oil price and the interest rate impact on the housing industry in the U.S.

你知道，我們仍然認為 2006 年將是——10、11% 是一個相當不錯的增長年，考慮到一些宏觀經濟因素，例如油價和利率對美國房地產行業的影響。

So to answer your question, I do not really see a major upside to this 10% growth rate that we are talking about.

因此，要回答您的問題，我認為我們正在談論的 10% 增長率並沒有真正的重大優勢。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Rick.

謝謝你，瑞克。

Steven Pelayo, Soleil Securities.

史蒂文·佩拉約，太陽證券。

We keep hearing about the manufacturing production plans of the major equipment suppliers are ramping fairly aggressively.

我們不斷聽到主要設備供應商的製造生產計劃正在相當積極地增加。

I'm wondering if you have heard anything from those suppliers to suggest that their lead times and their ability to get tools to you has lengthened in any way.

我想知道您是否從這些供應商那裡聽說過他們的交貨時間和向您提供工具的能力以任何方式延長了。

My second question would simply be you're planning 2.6 to 2.8 billion in capital spending in 2007.

我的第二個問題只是你計劃在 2007 年進行 2.6 到 28 億的資本支出。

Have you already gotten in line and booked a good, decent amount?

您是否已經排隊並預訂了一筆可觀的金額？

How much of that 2.7 at the midpoint is actually booked in equipment at this point?

中點的 2.7 中有多少實際上是在此時預訂的設備？

I think to some extent the equipment suppliers during the past several years, to their credit, have improved their lead times.

我認為在過去幾年中，設備供應商在某種程度上改善了他們的交貨時間。

Not all of them, but many of them.

不是全部，而是很多。

For instance, we have had a very good progress, together with our lithography supplier.

例如，我們與我們的光刻供應商一起取得了非常好的進展。

And this is something also we work very hard together to not only improve the lead time of the equipment shipment, but also improve the installation and the qualification time once the equipment gets to our wafer fab.

這也是我們非常努力的事情，不僅要提高設備出貨的交貨時間，還要提高設備到達我們晶圓廠後的安裝和驗證時間。

So we are -- from the capacity installation point of view, we are not seeing any real (indiscernible) impact from that point of view.

所以我們 - 從容量安裝的角度來看，從這個角度來看，我們沒有看到任何真正的（聽不清的）影響。

As to the ordering, I think that Lora mentioned earlier that our CapEx will be fairly evenly distributed throughout the year.

至於排序，我認為 Lora 之前提到，我們的資本支出將在全年中相當均勻地分佈。

So I do not have really a visibility right now about our ordering status, but you can probably extrapolate from Lora's comments.

所以我現在並沒有真正了解我們的訂購狀態，但你可能可以從 Lora 的評論中推斷出來。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Matt Gable, George Weiss Associates.

馬特蓋博，喬治韋斯協會。

I was wondering if you could describe ordering patterns right now with customers, if you have any visibility -- obviously Q1 -- but any look into the first month of Q2, what wafer starts have been doing lately.

我想知道你是否可以描述現在與客戶的訂購模式，如果你有任何可見性 - 顯然是第一季度 - 但對第二季度第一個月的任何看法，晶圓開始最近一直在做什麼。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ordering patterns pretty much consistent with what our guidance is for our first quarter business.

訂購模式與我們對第一季度業務的指導非常一致。

Our orders are coming in with sufficient lead time for us to meet our first quarter business guidance.

我們的訂單有足夠的交貨時間來滿足我們的第一季度業務指導。

I got on the call a little gate.

我接到了小門的電話。

Was there any guidance for Q1 capacity utilization, what you think that is going to do?

對第一季度的產能利用率有任何指導嗎？你認為這會做什麼？

No, we did not provide guidance for utilization for this quarter.

不，我們沒有為本季度的利用率提供指導。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Pranab Sarmah, Daiwa Institute of Research.

Pranab Sarmah，大和研究所。

My first question is on your 2006 CapEx.

我的第一個問題是關於您 2006 年的資本支出。

Does this CapEx include some equipment for your new fabs, the fab 15?

這個資本支出是否包括一些用於您的新工廠（fab 15）的設備？

The 15?

15?

No.

不。

No, not yet.

還沒有。

Merely for 12 and 14.

僅適用於 12 和 14。

From equipment point of view.

從裝備上看。

That means your 12 and 14 will be fully ramped up by end of 2006.

這意味著您的 12 和 14 將在 2006 年底全面升級。

In that case, when you are going to move equipment to next fab?

在這種情況下，您何時將設備轉移到下一個晶圓廠？

Well, no.

嗯，不。

I don't think by the end of this year either 12 or 14 will be fully ramped up.

我認為到今年年底，12 或 14 都不會完全增加。

Because keep in mind both fabs will be capable of doing 55 to 70,000 per month of capacity.

因為請記住，兩家晶圓廠每月的產能都可以達到 55 到 70,000 個。

However, we are planning on our next fab and we may start here some of the construction work for the next fab.

但是，我們正在計劃下一個晶圓廠，我們可能會從這裡開始下一個晶圓廠的一些建設工作。

Okay.

好的。

And is it possible to give some color on that customer concentration now or just to give some idea, like how many of the customers are above, say, 5% at this point?

現在是否有可能對客戶集中度給出一些顏色，或者只是給出一些想法，比如此時有多少客戶高於 5%？

Top ten customers accounts for roughly 50% of our total revenue.

前十大客戶約占我們總收入的 50%。

505%?

505%？

Yes.

是的。

And how the customers would be above 5%?

客戶如何超過 5%？

Sorry, we do not disclose that information.

抱歉，我們不會透露該信息。

Okay, fine.

好的。

And in this 2006 you are ramping your capacity a little higher speed on the second half and slightly lower speed on the first half.

在這個 2006 年，您將在下半年將您的產能提高一點，而在上半年則稍微降低一點。

Is it mainly due to some bottleneck on the [back end] (indiscernible) industry or do how you read that part?

主要是由於[後端]（聽不清）行業的一些瓶頸還是您如何閱讀那部分？

Actually, it depends on the demand patterns, so we see capacity ramping based on the customers' demand.

實際上，這取決於需求模式，因此我們看到產能會根據客戶的需求而增加。

So it is not related to other things.

所以它與其他事物無關。

Some of your customers have reported -- at least one customer said they're facing some problem with back-end capacity.

您的一些客戶已報告 - 至少一位客戶表示他們在後端容量方面遇到了一些問題。

And is it affecting the front-end business because of the capacity constraint on the back-end side?

又是因為後端的產能限制，影響到前端業務嗎？

I think the back-end capacity issue has been there since the second half last year.

我認為後端產能問題從去年下半年就一直存在。

So I think that it may have some impact on the certain portion of the inventory.

所以我認為它可能會對庫存的某些部分產生一些影響。

However, I don't think that is impacting the overall demand out of --because the end market demand has been quite strong since second half last year, and continuing into, we believe, the first quarter this year.

但是，我認為這不會影響整體需求——因為自去年下半年以來，終端市場需求一直非常強勁，並且我們相信會持續到今年第一季度。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much, Rick.

非常感謝你，瑞克。

Fayad Abbasi, Neuberger Berman.

法亞德·阿巴西，紐伯格·伯曼。

I just wanted to maybe ask a little bit longer-term question.

我只是想問一個更長期的問題。

We have seen quite a bit of, as you've mentioned, pricing pressure at 90 nanometer.

正如您所提到的，我們已經看到了很多 90 納米的定價壓力。

But if you look at profitability at some of your competitors and the technical challenges going to 65 and then going on to 45, at least at 65, what are your thoughts about what the pricing environment may look like?

但是，如果你看看你的一些競爭對手的盈利能力，以及從 65 到 45 到 45 的技術挑戰，至少在 65 時，你對定價環境的看法是什麼？

Again, it is a little bit further out, but if you could provide some insight on that, that would be great.

同樣，它有點遠，但如果你能對此提供一些見解，那就太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

That is a bit further out.

那有點遠了。

We hope that it is not at the (indiscernible).

我們希望它不是在（音頻不清晰）。

I do believe you're right in saying that 65 nanometer is definitely more difficult.

我相信你說 65 納米肯定更困難是對的。

It is not just the shrink of the 90 nanometer.

這不僅僅是 90 納米的縮小。

Especially from a transistor design and point of view, there are a lot of difficulties -- technical difficulty there.

尤其是從晶體管設計和角度來看，有很多困難——技術難點。

So we are, I think, on the right track towards our schedule according to our road map, and we fully expect ourselves to be able to start and ramp this technology on time and fully.

因此，我認為，根據我們的路線圖，我們的日程安排是正確的，我們完全希望自己能夠按時、全面地啟動和提升這項技術。

We have shipped some (indiscernible) wafers already to our customers.

我們已經向我們的客戶運送了一些（聽不清）晶圓。

Would you characterize maybe that the pricing, whatever pricing pressure you may face at 65 may be more driven by your customers than your competitors, as opposed to 90?

您是否會描述定價，無論您在 65 歲時可能面臨的任何定價壓力都可能更多地由您的客戶驅動而不是您的競爭對手，而不是 90 歲？

I don't think I really can say for sure right now.

我不認為我現在真的可以肯定地說。

Our price for 65 nanometer, I believe now, has the right parity compared to our 90 nanometer price.

我現在相信，我們 65 納米的價格與我們的 90 納米價格相當。

Okay, that's great.

好的，那太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

A follow-up from Ivan Goh, DRKW.

來自 DRKW 的 Ivan Goh 的後續報導。

Another long-term question for you.

另一個長期問題。

Right now, basically, we know that your 90 nanometer gross margin is below your Company's average.

現在，基本上，我們知道您的 90 納米毛利率低於貴公司的平均水平。

And I think recently you were quoted to say that the (indiscernible) cost is growing by 20% year-on-year -- in a conference in the U.S.

我想最近有人引用你的話說，（聽不清）成本同比增長了 20%——在美國的一次會議上。

I was just wondering, when you go to 65 nanometer and down to 45 nanometer, and that (indiscernible) cost continues to rise at 20% per annum, how much of an impact would that have on your ability to meet your long-term ROE target of 20%?

我只是想知道，當你從 65 納米降到 45 納米時，（聽不清）成本繼續以每年 20% 的速度增長，這對你實現長期 ROE 的能力有多大影響20%的目標？

And of course, the following question is what can TSMC do about that?

當然，接下來的問題是台積電能做些什麼呢？

Well, I think the [discovery] tool, of course, is obviously one of the most (indiscernible) investment.

好吧，我認為[發現]工具當然是最（聽不清）的投資之一。

On the other hand, of course, at least our suppliers have delivered the throughput and the performance along the way.

另一方面，當然，至少我們的供應商已經交付了吞吐量和性能。

So far, we are [pleased] and together we have been able to migrate to the -- for instance, 65 nanometer, at a cost structure that will meet the [Moore's Law].

到目前為止，我們很高興，並且我們已經能夠以符合 [摩爾定律] 的成本結構遷移到例如 65 納米。

Going forward, the only way is for our partners and the key suppliers to collaborate with us, just like what we are doing with our key customers, to continue working on the productivity, on the overall cost structure, on the leadtime, on the performance, so that both of us can succeed in our business.

展望未來，我們的合作夥伴和主要供應商與我們合作的唯一途徑，就像我們與主要客戶所做的一樣，繼續致力於提高生產力、整體成本結構、交貨時間和績效，以便我們雙方都能在業務上取得成功。

I must say, for instance, we've been working very closely and very well with our lithography supplier in that regard.

例如，我必須說，在這方面，我們一直與我們的光刻供應商進行了非常密切和非常好的合作。

It is a very high capital intensity, but I think TSMC, with our scale, this economy of scale affords us to continue in this very high, very heavy capital intensive business, and we can enjoy the return from such investment.

這是一個非常高的資本密集度，但我認為台積電，以我們的規模，這種規模經濟讓我們能夠繼續從事這個非常高、非常重的資本密集型業務，我們可以享受這種投資的回報。

And we view that as, naturally, one of our competitors' advantage long-term.

我們認為，這自然是我們競爭對手的長期優勢之一。

So you're quite confident of getting the right cost structure that would allow you to -- that would be similar if not better than 90 nanometer than what you have for 90 nanometer today?

因此，您非常有信心獲得正確的成本結構，讓您能夠 - 如果不優於 90 納米，那將與您今天的 90 納米相似嗎？

Yes, the 65 -- yes, for sure.

是的，65 - 是的，當然。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Operator, according to the time, we will only allow two more questions.

接線員，按照時間，我們只允許多問兩個問題。

Timothy Arcuri, Citigroup.

花旗集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

I seem to remember on this call last year as you were entering 2005, you had said that there was a pretty good portion of your full-year capital spending -- I seem to remember some number like 40, 50% -- that was already sitting in deferred payments to the suppliers, either in terms of down payment or in terms of full payments to your suppliers.

我似乎記得在去年你進入 2005 年的電話會議上，你曾說過你全年資本支出的很大一部分——我似乎記得某個數字，比如 40、50%——那已經是坐在向供應商的延期付款中，無論是首付還是全額支付給您的供應商。

I'm wondering is that a similar phenomenon this year?

我想知道今年是否有類似的現象？

I would think the percentage is much, much lower than that, given the much shorter lead times.

鑑於交貨時間要短得多，我認為這個百分比要低得多。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Actually, last year's condition was kind of unique because we were paying for capacity increase to support early this year demand.

實際上，去年的情況有點獨特，因為我們正在為產能增加支付費用以支持今年年初的需求。

This year, the pattern is kind of more normal, and we do not see it will be a similar situation like last time.

今年的格局比較正常，我們認為不會像上次那樣出現類似情況。

So you see things ramping in a more linear fashion through the year?

所以你看到事情在一年中以更線性的方式發展嗎？

Yes, that's true.

是的，這是真的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Michael McConnell, Pacific Crest Securities.

邁克爾·麥康奈爾，Pacific Crest 證券。

These are easy -- just a little housekeeping.

這些都很容易——只是一點點家務。

The net nonoperating income line, investment income -- what are we kind of thinking about for Q1?

淨營業外收入線，投資收入——我們對第一季度的看法是什麼？

I'm sorry -- say it again.

對不起——再說一遍。

The net nonoperating income and investment income line items on the income statement, what are we expecting those to be in Q1?

損益表上的淨營業外收入和投資收入項目，我們對第一季度的預期是什麼？

This part is actually quite difficult to forecast.

這部分實際上很難預測。

But fortunately, if you look at TSM's history, this line number is (indiscernible).

但幸運的是，如果你查看 TSM 的歷史，這個行號是（聽不清）。

Okay, so just --

好吧，那就——

(multiple speakers) close to 2005 fourth quarter, that would not too much far away.

（多位發言者） 2005年第四季度已經接近了，那也不會太遠了。

Okay.

好的。

So kind of in the same vicinity as Q4.

與第四季度差不多。

Yes.

是的。

And then the tax rate for '06?

然後是06年的稅率？

Okay.

好的。

I want to make some comment on tax rate.

我想對稅率發表一些評論。

In 2006, we estimate the tax rate will be within 5% of (indiscernible) net income before tax.

2006 年，我們估計稅率將在稅前淨收入（音頻不清晰）的 5% 以內。

That configures the tax expense minus the tax credit.

這配置了稅收費用減去稅收抵免。

Okay.

好的。

And then last one, can you give us at least for Q4 what wafer shipments were in Q4, or are we no longer doing that either?

最後一個問題，您能否至少在第四季度向我們提供第四季度的晶圓出貨量，還是我們不再這樣做？

We are no longer doing that.

我們不再那樣做。

Sorry.

對不起。

So we should just back into it, just with the utilization -- I know your utilization rate obviously (indiscernible) your actual wafer shipments.

所以我們應該回到它，只考慮利用率——我清楚地知道你的利用率（聽不清）你的實際晶圓出貨量。

Is there a reason for this?

是否有一個原因？

Yes.

是的。

Is it just you don't want to be this transparent anymore?

只是你不想再這麼透明了嗎？

I'm just trying to wonder why you're not doing wafer shipments anymore in Q4, because we all --.

我只是想知道為什麼你們在第四季度不再進行晶圓出貨，因為我們都--。

It's not we don't want to be transparent in the U.S.

並不是我們不想在美國保持透明。

We have changed our guidance by directly giving you the top line, the revenue, the gross margin, and operating margin.

我們通過直接向您提供收入、收入、毛利率和營業利潤率來改變我們的指導。

So for you to figure out the profitability is actually much easier.

因此，對於您而言，計算盈利能力實際上要容易得多。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Let's conclude today's conference.

讓我們結束今天的會議。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We're going to have a lunar new year and we should all have a very good year of 2006.

我們將迎來農曆新年，我們都應該有一個非常好的 2006 年。

Goodbye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, we thank you for your participation in this conference.

女士們，先生們，我們感謝您參加本次會議。

This concludes the presentation and you may now disconnect.

演示到此結束，您現在可以斷開連接。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。