Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss second-quarter 2025 results. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company.

    女士們、先生們,早安,歡迎參加拖拉機供應公司電話會議,討論 2025 年第二季業績。(操作員指令)。請注意,未經 Tractor Supply Company 書面授權,不得全部或部分複製此通話。

  • And as a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.

    提醒一下,本次通話正在錄音。現在,我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人,拖拉機供應公司投資者和公共關係高級副總裁瑪麗溫皮爾金頓。瑪麗·溫恩,請繼續。

  • Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

    Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

  • Thank you, Tamia. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your time and participation in today's call. On the call today participating in our prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our CEO; Kurt Barton, our CFO; and Colin Yankee, our Chief Supply Chain Officer. In addition to Colin, we will also have Seth Estep, Rob Mills, and John Ordus join the call for the question-and-answer portion.

    謝謝你,塔米亞。大家早安。我們感謝您抽出時間參加今天的電話會議。今天參加電話會議並發表準備好的演講的有我們的執行長哈爾·勞頓 (Hal Lawton)、我們的財務長 Kurt Barton 和我們的首席供應鏈官科林·揚基 (Colin Yankee)。除了科林之外,我們還將邀請塞思·埃斯特普 (Seth Estep)、羅布·米爾斯 (Rob Mills) 和約翰·奧杜斯 (John Ordus) 參加問答環節。

  • Following our prepared remarks, we will open the floor for questions. Please note that a supplemental slide presentation has been made available on our website to accompany today's earnings release. Let me now reference the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    在我們準備好發言之後,我們將開始回答問題。請注意,我們的網站上已提供補充幻燈片演示,以配合今天的收益報告。現在讓我參考一下 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》下的安全港條款。

  • This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control.

    本次電話會議可能包含某些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受重大風險和不確定性的影響,包括公司未來的營運和財務表現。在許多情況下,這些風險和不確定性是我們無法控制的。

  • Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.

    儘管公司認為其前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的,但它不能保證該預期或任何前瞻性陳述將被證明是正確的,實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。

  • Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    今天發布的新聞稿末尾和公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中列出了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中反映的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。

  • The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that these statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call.

    本次通話中所包含的資訊僅在討論當天準確。投資者不應假設這些聲明在以後仍將有效。Tractor Supply 不承擔更新本次通話中討論的任何資訊的義務。

  • (Conference Instructions) We appreciate your understanding and cooperation. We will also be available after the call for any further discussions. Thank you for your time and attention this morning, and it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Hal.

    (會議指示)感謝您的理解與合作。通話結束後,我們也將隨時準備進行進一步的討論。感謝您今天上午的時間和關注,我很高興將電話轉給哈爾。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. To kick off today's call, I'll begin with a high-level overview of our second quarter performance, then I'll turn it over to Kurt for a more detailed review of the quarter and our outlook going forward. After that, Colin Yankee, our EVP and Chief Supply Chain Officer, will join to share an update on our Final Mile initiative, one of the most exciting and impactful transformations underway at Tractor Supply. I'll then return to close out the call with some final thoughts before Q&A.

    大家早安,感謝大家今天加入我們。在今天的電話會議開始時,我將首先概述我們第二季度的業績,然後我將把它交給庫爾特,讓他對本季和未來的展望進行更詳細的回顧。之後,我們的執行副總裁兼首席供應鏈長 Colin Yankee 將加入並分享我們「最後一哩路」計畫的最新進展,這是 Tractor Supply 正在進行的最令人興奮和最具影響力的轉型之一。然後,我將在問答環節之前回來結束通話並提出一些最後的想法。

  • Before we dive into the results, I want to take a moment to thank our 52,000-plus Tractor Supply team members. Their dedication, resilience and passion for serving Life Out Here continue to set us apart. Truly, it's through their dedication and their legendary customer service and deep product knowledge that we continue to earn our customers' trust and loyalty.

    在我們深入了解結果之前,我想花點時間感謝我們 52,000 多名拖拉機供應團隊成員。他們的奉獻精神、韌性以及為 Life Out Here 服務的熱情使我們繼續與眾不同。確實,正是透過他們的奉獻精神、卓越的客戶服務和深厚的產品知識,我們才不斷贏得客戶的信任和忠誠。

  • Their efforts are the foundation of our leadership in rural retail and central to how we deliver value every day. Overall, we are pleased with the record results we delivered in the quarter. Despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a tepid start to spring, our sales performance exceeded our modest expectations. This performance reflects continued strength in our core needs-based categories and share gains across key seasonal businesses.

    他們的努力是我們在農村零售業領導地位的基礎,也是我們每天創造價值的核心。整體而言,我們對本季所取得的創紀錄業績感到滿意。儘管宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性,且春季開局不溫不火,但我們的銷售表現超出了我們的預期。這一業績反映了我們核心需求類別的持續強勁表現以及主要季節性業務的份額成長。

  • Before getting into the details of Q2, I'd like to highlight four trends. First, we delivered comp transaction growth in the quarter, which is a hallmark of Tractor Supply. Second, customer engagement was exceptional. We hit numerous all-time highs across key customer metrics, including Neighbor's Club membership, customer satisfaction, total customers shopped, new customer growth and record sales of live birds.

    在詳細介紹第二季之前,我想強調四個趨勢。首先,我們在本季實現了交易量成長,這是 Tractor Supply 的標誌。其次,客戶參與度非常高。我們在關鍵客戶指標方面創下了多項歷史新高,包括鄰裡俱樂部會員人數、客戶滿意度、購物客戶總數、新客戶成長和活禽銷售記錄。

  • And I could go on and on and on. Customer loyalty is a hallmark of Tractor Supply. Third, average unit retail turned positive, right in line with the inflection point that we called out at the beginning of the year and last quarter. This shift supported comp ticket growth in the quarter and positions us well for the back half of the year. And fourth and perhaps most importantly, we saw sequential comp sales improvement across the quarter.

    我還可以繼續說下去。顧客忠誠度是 Tractor Supply 的標誌。第三,平均單位零售額轉為正值,與我們在年初和上個季度預測的拐點一致。這一轉變支持了本季的票房成長,並為我們下半年的業績做好了準備。第四,也許是最重要的一點,我們看到整個季度的銷售額連續成長。

  • Each period performed better than the one before it, and that momentum has continued into early Q3. These trends underscore the resilience of our business model and the relevance of our offering, especially in today's environment. Our team's disciplined execution and deep connection to our customers continue to drive performance across the business.

    每個時期的表現都比前一個時期更好,而且這種勢頭一直持續到第三季初。這些趨勢凸顯了我們的商業模式的彈性和我們產品的相關性,尤其是在當今環境下。我們團隊的嚴格執行和與客戶的深厚聯繫繼續推動整個業務的績效。

  • Now jumping into some of the details. These strengths translated into solid financial results for the second quarter. We grew net sales by 4.5% with a comparable store sales increase of 1.5%. This was our largest sales quarter ever, reaching $4.44 billion. Diluted EPS was $0.81. Our comparable store sales performance was driven by a 1% increase in transactions and a 0.5% increase in average ticket. In many ways, the quarter played out as expected once spring arrived across our markets.

    現在來討論一些細節。這些優勢轉化為第二季穩健的財務表現。我們的淨銷售額成長了 4.5%,同店銷售額成長了 1.5%。這是我們有史以來最大的季度,銷售額達到 44.4 億美元。稀釋每股收益為0.81美元。可比較店面銷售業績的推動因素包括交易量成長1%以及平均單價成長0.5%。從很多方面來看,隨著春季的到來,本季的表現都與預期一致。

  • While April was impacted by wet weather and a slow seasonal start, May and June delivered comp sales above the quarterly average, with June marking our strongest comp month of the quarter. We are pleased with the momentum exiting Q2 as customers reengaged with seasonal categories and our core needs-based assortments.

    雖然 4 月受到陰雨天氣和季節開局緩慢的影響,但 5 月和 6 月的同店銷售額高於季度平均水平,其中 6 月是本季同店銷售額最高的月份。我們對第二季的勢頭感到滿意,因為客戶重新關注季節性類別和我們基於核心需求的分類。

  • Turning to category performance. Our consumable, usable, and edible or C.U.E. products led the way with solid unit growth that consistently ran above our chain average. These demand-driven essentials remain a cornerstone of our business. A standout within C.U.E. was Chick Days. This year's event was our most successful to date. More customers than ever are turning to back our poultry, and we saw strong growth across both new and existing customers.

    轉向類別表現。我們的消耗品、可用產品和可食用產品(或稱 C.U.E. 產品)以穩健的單位增長領先,且始終高於我們的連鎖平均水平。這些需求驅動的要素仍然是我們業務的基石。C.U.E. 中一個突出的作品是 Chick Days。今年的活動是我們迄今為止最成功的活動。越來越多的客戶選擇購買我們的家禽,我們看到新舊客戶數量均強勁成長。

  • From live birds to coops, feed and supplies, we saw strong broad-based demand across the category. Chick Days is retail theater at its best, uniquely Tractor Supply and reinforces the position we have in rural retail. In pet food, we believe the market has passed the trough of the downturn and is entering a recovery cycle, albeit slow and modest.

    從活禽到雞舍、飼料和用品,我們看到整個類別都有強烈的廣泛需求。Chick Days 是最好的零售劇院,獨特的 Tractor Supply 鞏固了我們在農村零售業的地位。在寵物食品方面,我們認為市場已經度過了經濟低迷的低谷,正在進入復甦週期,儘管速度緩慢且溫和。

  • We introduced new brands in both dog and cat across the spectrum of value to super premium with a focus on what differentiates Tractor Supply. We're actively refining our space allocation resets to adjust product assortment and relevant brands to ensure we're meeting the evolving needs of pet parents.

    我們推出了涵蓋從價格到超高端各個檔次的狗和貓新品品牌,重點突出了 Tractor Supply 的與眾不同之處。我們正在積極改進我們的空間分配重置,以調整產品分類和相關品牌,確保滿足寵物父母不斷變化的需求。

  • At the same time, we're seeing momentum and continue to invest in our complementary pet initiatives. Allivet is expanding our reach in pet pharmacy, while pet wash stations and mobile vet clinics continue to deliver strong customer growth and loyalty. Seasonal merchandise performed well, including live goods, and we saw positive contributions from apparel, gift and decor.

    同時,我們看到了發展勢頭,並將繼續投資於我們的互補寵物計劃。Allivet 正在擴大我們在寵物藥房的影響力,而寵物清洗站和行動獸醫診所繼續帶來強勁的客戶成長和忠誠度。季節性商品表現良好,包括活體商品,我們也看到服裝、禮品和裝飾品的正面貢獻。

  • Our Garden Centers and seasonal live good tents supported strong growth in the lawn and garden category. We have more than 650 Garden Centers in operation and activated over 250 seasonal tents this spring. These efforts reflect a meaningful gain in merchandising capability and helped us to meet our customers' passions for gardening and tending to their property.

    我們的花園中心和季節性生活帳篷支持了草坪和花園類別的強勁成長。我們目前有 650 多個花園中心投入運營,今年春天啟用了 250 多個季節性帳篷。這些努力反映了商品銷售能力的顯著提升,並幫助我們滿足了客戶對園藝和照顧財產的熱情。

  • Big ticket performed better than we anticipated. Customers continue to rely on the trusted advice of our team members when navigating larger purchases, a testament to the legendary service that defines the Tractor Supply in-store experience. We also believe we somewhat benefited from the bathtub effect as seasonal demand shifted from Q1 into Q2 and has continued on into Q3.

    大票的表現比我們預期的要好。在進行大額購買時,客戶仍然依賴我們團隊成員的可靠建議,這證明了 Tractor Supply 店內體驗的傳奇服務。我們也認為,我們在一定程度上受益於浴缸效應,因為季節性需求從第一季轉移到第二季度,並持續到第三季度。

  • In total, these were moderated by some softness in select discretionary categories, including pet hardlines, gun safes and air compressors. Additionally, certain later-cycle spring businesses such as chemicals, sprayers and pressure washers performed below expectations in the quarter, but it picked up as we've moved into Q3. These areas of pressure were not unexpected, given the broader consumer sentiment and how the spring season unfolded.

    總體而言,這些漲勢受到寵物用品、槍支保險箱和空氣壓縮機等部分非必需消費品類別的疲軟影響。此外,某些後期週期春季業務(例如化學品、噴霧器和高壓清洗機)在本季度的表現低於預期,但隨著進入第三季度,情況有所回升。考慮到整體消費者情緒以及春季銷售情況,這些壓力領域並不令人意外。

  • Now let's turn to customer engagement. Our Neighbor's Club loyalty program remains a key driver of customer engagement and a meaningful competitive advantage. In Q2, we had all-time highs across several customer metrics. We ended the quarter with a record 41 million members who accounted for over 80% of our total sales. We also saw record total customer count and an all-time high in high-value customers.

    現在讓我們來談談客戶參與度。我們的鄰居俱樂部忠誠度計劃仍然是客戶參與和有意義的競爭優勢的關鍵驅動力。在第二季度,我們的多項客戶指標均創下歷史新高。本季結束時,我們的會員數量達到創紀錄的 4,100 萬,占我們總銷售額的 80% 以上。我們也看到客戶總數創歷史新高,高價值客戶數也創歷史新高。

  • And that's defined as those who shop frequently and spend more across categories. As part of our Neighbor's Club, we just celebrated the second anniversary of our Hometown Heroes program with a $1 million donation across 10 charities focused on military service members, veterans and first responders. Hometown Heroes receive top-tier Neighbor's Club status and benefits.

    這被定義為那些經常購物並且在各個類別上花費更多錢的人。作為鄰居俱樂部的一部分,我們剛剛慶祝了家鄉英雄計畫的兩週年,並向 10 個慈善機構捐贈了 100 萬美元,主要針對軍人、退伍軍人和急救人員。家鄉英雄將獲得頂級鄰居俱樂部的地位和福利。

  • Notably, about 15% of the Hometown Heroes are new to Tractor Supply, highlighting the program's reach and appeal. Shifting to the digital front. Our digital sales grew at a mid-single-digit rate for the quarter. Orders fulfilled by our stores remain the most popular fulfillment option, accounting for nearly 80% of digital orders, a reflection of the convenience and strategic placement of our more than 2,300 stores across rural America. Our store footprint continues to be a powerful enabler of digital growth.

    值得注意的是,約有 15% 的家鄉英雄是 Tractor Supply 的新成員,凸顯了該計劃的影響力和吸引力。轉向數位化前沿。本季我們的數位銷售額實現了中等個位數的成長。由我們的商店完成的訂單仍然是最受歡迎的履行方式,佔數位訂單的近 80%,這反映了我們在美國農村地區 2,300 多家商店的便利性和戰略佈局。我們的門市足跡繼續成為數位化成長的強大推動力。

  • We saw robust performance in deliver-from-store and same-day delivery, which reinforces the unique advantage of our local presence in the communities we serve. Together, these capabilities enhance convenience for our customers and drive continued momentum in our digital ecosystem. Turning to the physical footprint.

    我們在店內配送和當日配送方面表現強勁,這增強了我們在所服務社區的本地業務的獨特優勢。這些功能共同為我們的客戶提供了便利,並推動了我們數位生態系統的持續發展。轉向物理足跡。

  • In the second quarter, we opened 24 new Tractor Supply stores and two Petsense by Tractor Supply stores, and we closed one Petsense store. We have a robust pipeline of low-risk organic growth opportunities ahead of us. Our recent acquisition of 18 Big Lots locations gives us great confidence to start 2026 with our new store pipeline in a strong position as we anticipate stepping up to 100 new stores next year.

    第二季度,我們開設了 24 家新的 Tractor Supply 商店和 2 家 Petsense by Tractor Supply 商店,同時關閉了 1 家 Petsense 商店。我們面前有一系列低風險的有機成長機會。我們最近收購了 18 家 Big Lots 門市,這讓我們對 2026 年初的新店佈局充滿信心,我們預計明年新店數量將增至 100 家。

  • Over the past two years, we have significantly enhanced our real estate development capabilities, improving new store economics and fusion remodel returns. We continue to make progress on our Fee Development program, which gives us greater control over the timeline and cost of new stores and allows us to capture approximately 15% rent savings over the lease term of a new store.

    在過去的兩年裡,我們顯著增強了房地產開發能力,並提高了新店經濟效益和整合改造回報。我們的費用開發計劃繼續取得進展,這使我們能夠更好地控制新店的時間表和成本,並使我們能夠在新店租賃期內節省約 15% 的租金。

  • All in, we're pleased with the progress we've made across the business in the first half of the year. Our performance in the second quarter reflects solid execution, continued resilience in our core categories and strong alignment with our long-term strategic priorities.

    總而言之,我們對上半年業務的進展感到滿意。我們第二季的業績反映了穩健的執行力、核心類別的持續韌性以及與長期策略重點的高度一致性。

  • Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, we recognize the uncertainty that remains from macroeconomic pressures to evolving tariffs. That said, our business model is built for resilience. Given our performance year-to-date and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are reconfirming our guidance for 2025.

    展望 2025 年下半年,我們認識到從宏觀經濟壓力到不斷變化的關稅仍然存在不確定性。也就是說,我們的商業模式是為彈性而建立的。鑑於我們今年迄今的表現以及對今年剩餘時間的展望,我們重新確認了 2025 年的指導。

  • With a predominantly US sourced assortment, trusted vendor relationships and a scalable flexible supply chain, we believe we are well positioned to navigate near-term volatility and to continue driving long-term value. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kurt.

    憑藉主要來自美國的商品組合、值得信賴的供應商關係以及可擴展的靈活供應鏈,我們相信我們完全有能力應對短期波動並繼續推動長期價值。說完這些,我就把麥克風交給寇特。

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Hal, and good morning, everyone. Echoing Hal's remarks, we are pleased with our second quarter financial results, which delivered record sales and net income. As Hal noted, the quarter began more slowly than anticipated, largely due to a delayed start to the spring season.

    謝謝你,哈爾,大家早安。與哈爾的言論一致,我們對第二季的財務表現感到滿意,該季度的銷售額和淨收入創下了歷史新高。正如哈爾所指出的,本季的開局比預期慢,主要是因為春季的開始時間推遲。

  • Based on my experience, when spring arrives later, especially when accompanied by favorable moisture levels, we typically see a more compressed peak selling window but also a shift in demand to later in the season. That's exactly what we observed this year with spring-related sales activity effectively pushed back roughly a month.

    根據我的經驗,當春季來得較晚時,尤其是伴隨著有利的濕度水平時,我們通常會看到更壓縮的銷售高峰期,但需求也會轉移到季節後期。這正是我們今年觀察到的情況,春季相關的銷售活動實際上推遲了大約一個月。

  • From a regional standpoint, six of our seven geographic regions delivered positive comparable sales, all within a tight band. Notably, every region posted positive comps in the month of June, and we're encouraged to see this momentum continuing in the third quarter.

    從區域角度來看,我們七個地理區域中的六個實現了正可比銷售額,且均在一個狹窄的範圍內。值得注意的是,每個地區六月的銷售額均出現了積極的成長,我們很高興看到這一勢頭在第三季度得以延續。

  • As we indicated last quarter, we expected the second quarter to mark the turning point from the deflationary headwinds we've been facing, and that outlook proved to be on target. After experiencing six consecutive quarters of pressure on our comparable sales from deflation, the impact this quarter was rather neutral.

    正如我們上個季度所指出的,我們預計第二季將標誌著我們擺脫通貨緊縮逆風的轉折點,事實證明這一前景是正確的。在經歷了連續六個季度的通貨緊縮對我們的可比較銷售額的壓力之後,本季的影響相當中性。

  • Moving down our income statement, gross margin expanded by 31 basis points to 36.9%, driven by disciplined product cost management and consistent execution of our ongoing everyday low-price strategy. I want to thank our merchant team who continues to play a critical role in delivering results through our product cost management initiatives even in a dynamic environment.

    在我們的損益表中,毛利率擴大了 31 個基點,達到 36.9%,這得益於嚴格的產品成本管理和持續執行我們持續的日常低價策略。我要感謝我們的商家團隊,即使在動態環境中,他們仍然透過我們的產品成本管理措施在取得成果方面發揮關鍵作用。

  • We're seeing meaningful benefits from their disciplined execution combined with the ongoing efficiencies we're capturing across our supply chain. These efforts continue to drive our gross margin performance and improve our overall cost structure. Selling, general and administrative expenses as a percent of sales increased by 51 basis points to 23.9%.

    他們的嚴格執行以及我們在整個供應鏈中持續提升的效率為我們帶來了顯著的利益。這些努力繼續推動我們的毛利率表現並改善我們的整體成本結構。銷售、一般及管理費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 51 個基點,達到 23.9%。

  • This increase reflects planned investments in strategic growth initiatives, which included higher depreciation and last year's opening of our tenth distribution center. Additionally, we experienced a modest deleverage of fixed costs, given the level of comparable store sales. We remain laser-focused on cost control and ongoing productivity initiatives, highlighted by continued high performance of our distribution center network, which has increased productivity for the last three years and delivered its highest second quarter efficiency results.

    這一成長反映了對策略性成長計畫的計畫投資,其中包括更高的折舊和去年開設的第十個配送中心。此外,考慮到可比店鋪銷售水平,我們的固定成本也經歷了適度的去槓桿。我們仍然高度重視成本控制和持續的生產力舉措,其中突出的是我們的配送中心網路持續的高效能,該網路在過去三年中提高了生產力,並在第二季度實現了最高的效率結果。

  • Operating income grew 2.9% to $577.8 million. Net income increased 1.1% to $430 million, and diluted EPS grew 2.8% to $0.81. Our balance sheet remains strong and is a clear competitive advantage as we navigate an evolving macro environment. Merchandise inventories totaled $3.1 billion at quarter end, representing a modest 1.5% increase in average inventory per store.

    營業收入成長 2.9% 至 5.778 億美元。淨利成長1.1%,達到4.3億美元,稀釋每股收益成長2.8%,達到0.81美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁,這在我們應對不斷變化的宏觀環境方面構成了明顯的競爭優勢。季度末商品庫存總額為 31 億美元,每家商店的平均庫存小幅增加 1.5%。

  • This increase supports improved in-stock levels in key C.U.E. categories to meet customer demand while also reflecting the impact of tariffs on second quarter direct import receipts. We're very pleased with both the positioning and quality of our inventory. Our consistent, thoughtful approach to inventory management continues to be a key differentiator for Tractor Supply.

    這一增長有利於提高主要 C.U.E. 類別的庫存水平,以滿足客戶需求,同時也反映了關稅對第二季直接進口收入的影響。我們對庫存的定位和品質都非常滿意。我們始終如一、周到的庫存管理方法仍然是 Tractor Supply 的關鍵差異化因素。

  • We returned $196 million to shareholders this quarter through dividends and share repurchases. For the full year, we now anticipate share repurchases will be in the range of $325 million to $375 million, below our original outlook of $525 million to $600 million, reflecting a more measured pace of repurchases as we manage capital allocation with discipline.

    本季我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 1.96 億美元。就全年而言,我們目前預計股票回購額將在 3.25 億美元至 3.75 億美元之間,低於我們最初預期的 5.25 億美元至 6 億美元,這反映出我們在嚴格管理資本配置的同時,採取了更為穩健的回購步伐。

  • As Hal shared, we are reaffirming our fiscal 2025 outlook. We continue to recognize the evolving macroeconomic environment and are closely monitoring indicators of consumer spending. We continue to expect net sales growth of 4% to 8%. Comparable store sales are projected to be flat to up 4%, reflecting a balanced view of the current environment and our ongoing initiatives to drive traffic and anticipated ticket gains.

    正如哈爾所說,我們重申了我們對 2025 財年的展望。我們繼續認識到不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境,並密切關註消費者支出指標。我們繼續預期淨銷售額將成長 4% 至 8%。同店銷售額預計將持平或成長 4%,這反映了對當前環境的平衡看法以及我們為推動客流量和預期票房收益而採取的持續舉措。

  • Our operating margin is anticipated to be between 9.5% and 9.9% with net income between $1.07 billion and $1.17 billion. This translates to EPS in the range of $2 and $2.18. As we noted last quarter, the current tariff landscape is creating some added cost pressure. We're proactively addressing this by working closely with our supply chain and vendor partners to mitigate the impact.

    我們的營業利潤率預計在 9.5% 至 9.9% 之間,淨收入預計在 10.7 億美元至 11.7 億美元之間。這意味著每股收益將在2美元至2.18美元之間。正如我們上個季度所指出的,目前的關稅狀況​​正在造成一些額外的成本壓力。我們正在積極解決這個問題,並與我們的供應鏈和供應商合作夥伴密切合作,以減輕影響。

  • As to timing, we have seen the tariff impact begin to come through on our direct imports. There have been modest cost concessions on nondirect inventory. At this point, there has been limited impact to the average unit retail. All of this aligns with our expectations that the impacts related to tariffs will primarily occur in the second half of this year and beyond.

    就時間而言,我們已經看到關稅的影響開始對我們的直接進口產生影響。非直接庫存的成本已有適度優惠。目前,對平均單位零售量的影響有限。所有這些都符合我們的預期,即與關稅相關的影響將主要發生在今年下半年及以後。

  • Given the ongoing developments and the dynamic nature of tariff policies, we are reaffirming our guidance to encompass what we see as a range of possibilities. That said, as we shared on our last call, we're thoughtfully managing the business toward the midpoint of that range while remaining agile as the situation evolves.

    鑑於關稅政策的持續發展和動態性質,我們重申我們的指導方針,以涵蓋我們所看到的一系列可能性。話雖如此,正如我們在上次電話會議上所分享的那樣,我們正在深思熟慮地管理業務,使其朝著該範圍的中間點發展,同時隨著情況的發展保持靈活性。

  • Looking to the second half of the year, we expect to see an acceleration in comparable sales performance, supported by transaction growth, gains in average comp ticket and soft compares in the second half of the year. It's also worth noting that the prior year had minimal weather-related sales benefit with only one notable hurricane and limited winter weather.

    展望下半年,我們預期可比銷售業績將加速成長,這得益於交易量成長、平均可比票價上漲以及下半年軟性比較的推動。另外值得注意的是,前一年受天氣影響的銷售效益微乎其微,僅有一次顯著的颶風和有限的冬季天氣。

  • In addition, the lower mix of big-ticket items in the second half of the year creates less reliance on big ticket sales. These factors give us cautious optimism as we move into the back half of the year. We continue to anticipate gross margin expansion in the second half of the year, albeit at a lower rate of expansion compared to the first half.

    此外,下半年大件商品組合減少,對大件商品銷售的依賴也隨之降低。隨著我們進入下半年,這些因素讓我們保持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們繼續預計下半年毛利率將擴大,儘管與上半年相比擴張速度有所降低。

  • As we have previously shared, we begin to lap the transportation cost benefits from the new DC, and we anticipate shifting from favorable compares to modestly higher year-over-year transportation costs. Additionally, tariffs are anticipated to create some slight pressure on gross margin as we balance cost increases with maintaining competitive everyday low pricing.

    正如我們之前所分享的,我們開始享受新配送中心帶來的運輸成本優勢,並且我們預計運輸成本將從有利的比較轉向同比略高的水平。此外,由於我們需要平衡成本增加與維持具有競爭力的日常低價,因此預計關稅將對毛利率造成輕微壓力。

  • On the SG&A front, while we do foresee some deleverage in the back half, it is projected to be less pronounced than what we experienced in the first half, reflecting the anticipation of leverage on fixed costs with stronger comp sales performance, lapping the opening of the new DC in the prior year as well as our ongoing focus on disciplined expense management.

    在銷售、一般及行政費用方面,雖然我們確實預見到下半年會出現一些去槓桿現象,但預計其幅度不會像上半年那麼明顯,這反映了對固定成本槓桿的預期,以及更強勁的可比銷售業績,與上一年新配送中心的開業相吻合,以及我們對嚴格費用管理的持續關注。

  • We remain confident in our ability to execute our strategic plan and deliver long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to Colin to provide more details on our Final Mile initiative. In my 25-plus years with Tractor Supply, this stands out as the natural next evolution in our supply chain. In my view, it's a true differentiator that strengthens our position and enhances how we serve our customers.

    我們仍然對我們執行策略計劃和為股東創造長期價值的能力充滿信心。接下來,我將把時間交給科林,讓他提供有關我們「最後一英里」計劃的更多細節。在我為 Tractor Supply 工作的 25 多年中,這是我們供應鏈中自然而然的下一步發展。在我看來,這是一個真正的差異化因素,它鞏固了我們的地位,並增強了我們為客戶提供服務的方式。

  • And now, Colin, I'll turn it over to you.

    現在,科林,我將把話題交給你。

  • Colin Yankee - Executive Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer

    Colin Yankee - Executive Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer

  • Thank you, Kurt. Before I get into the details of our Final Mile expansion, I want to take a moment to recognize the remarkable progress our team has made. In just a few short years, we've transformed our supply chain from a solid operation to a nimble, purpose-built, digitally enabled, customer-facing network, one that not only supports growth but fuels a competitive advantage for Tractor Supply.

    謝謝你,庫爾特。在詳細介紹我們的最後一哩擴展計劃之前,我想花點時間來認識我們的團隊所取得的顯著進步。在短短幾年內,我們將供應鏈從穩固的營運轉變為一個靈活、專用、數位化、以客戶為導向的網絡,這不僅支援成長,而且為 Tractor Supply 提供了競爭優勢。

  • Our supply chain is uniquely designed for Life Out Here. We built a network to support our specialized store format, ensuring that our customers have access to the products they need to take care of their land, their livestock, their livelihood and their lifestyle. Over the last five years, we've invested in our supply chain, and those investments have driven material returns.

    我們的供應鏈是專為 Life Out Here 設計的。我們建立了一個網絡來支持我們的專賣店形式,確保我們的客戶能夠獲得照顧他們的土地、牲畜、生計和生活方式所需的產品。在過去的五年裡,我們對我們的供應鏈進行了投資,這些投資已經帶來了實質的回報。

  • That includes our direct-to-customer capabilities using our own distribution network. Our next step is fully integrating our Final Mile solution with our end-to-end supply chain to support our delivery needs, whether those sales are generated in store, online or through our direct sales business.

    這包括利用我們自己的分銷網絡直接面向客戶的能力。我們的下一步是將我們的「最後一哩路」解決方案與我們的端到端供應鏈完全整合,以支援我們的交付需求,無論這些銷售是在商店、網路上還是透過我們的直銷業務產生的。

  • It's important to recognize that every element of our supply chain is tailored to the demand of our compact store footprint in rural communities and the specialized assortment our customers depend on. We move a lot of tonnage and a wide variety of products through our small store footprint.

    重要的是要認識到,我們供應鏈的每個元素都是根據我們在農村社區的緊湊商店足跡的需求以及我們的客戶所依賴的專業分類而量身定制的。我們透過小小的店鋪空間運送大量貨物和各種各樣的產品。

  • And that means we have to be precise in how we flow product and anticipate demand patterns. There isn't much room for error, and we've built a supply chain that uses world-class technology and data analytics to make all that happen. To achieve that, we've scaled machine learning across 90% of our replenishment forecasts, added new logistics nodes, launched gig-enabled and team member delivery capabilities and are now moving more volume with greater precision and flexibility than ever before.

    這意味著我們必須精確地流通產品並預測需求模式。沒有太多出錯的餘地,我們已經建立了一條使用世界一流技術和數據分析的供應鏈來實現這一切。為了實現這一目標,我們將機器學習擴展到 90% 的補貨預測,增加了新的物流節點,推出了支援零工和團隊成員的交付功能,現在我們可以比以往更精確、更靈活地運送更多的貨物。

  • Our teams move quickly using their knowledge of our assortment, the complexity of operating in these rural locations, and applying our operational excellence principles to deploy new Final Mile capabilities across more markets in the first half of 2025. Hal and I have gone out and done deliveries with our drivers, and that experience quickly demonstrates that this is about more than dropping a parcel on a front porch.

    我們的團隊利用對我們產品組合的了解、在這些農村地區運營的複雜性以及應用我們的卓越運營原則,迅速採取行動,在 2025 年上半年在更多市場部署新的最後一英里功能。哈爾和我曾與我們的司機一起出去送貨,而這次經歷很快證明,這不僅僅是把包裹放在前廊上那麼簡單。

  • We can and we will handle more of those small items with the capabilities we're putting in place. But we're also doing things that others can't. We're delivering dozens of stall mats that weigh 94 pounds each, 16-foot fence panels, stock tanks and multiple pallets of animal feed on a recurring basis to the same customers.

    我們能夠並且將會利用我們現有的能力來處理更多這樣的小件物品。但我們也在做別人做不到的事。我們定期向同一批客戶運送數十個重達 94 磅的畜欄墊、16 英尺高的圍欄板、儲水池和多托盤動物飼料。

  • These are high-weight high-volume goods that don't fit in the back of a sedan or a van. Many of these deliveries involve driving down gravel roads, navigating through pasture gates directly on to properties where our customers live and work. In many cases, our team members are trusted to enter our customers' property and have their gate codes as well as specific details about where to place the product, extending that legendary service we strive for in our stores out on to our customers' land.

    這些貨物重量大、體積大,無法裝入轎車或貨車的後方。許多此類運送都需要沿著碎石路行駛,穿過牧場大門,直接到達客戶居住和工作的地方。在許多情況下,我們的團隊成員被信任可以進入客戶的房產並掌握他們的門禁密碼以及有關放置產品位置的具體細節,將我們在商店中努力提供的傳奇服務延伸到客戶的土地上。

  • With our eyes on direct sales, we know we need to scale this network and integrate it with our end-to-end supply chain. Today, we have nationwide DC coverage where every DC replenishes stores and also serves as a fulfillment center for direct-to-customer orders. Our mixing center network provides just-in-time replenishment for our fastest-moving products.

    我們著眼於直銷,知道我們需要擴大這個網路並將其與我們的端到端供應鏈結合。如今,我們的配送中心已涵蓋全國,每個配送中心都為商店補貨,同時也作為直接面向客戶的訂單履行中心。我們的混合中心網路為最暢銷的產品提供及時補貨。

  • And with 90% of digital deliveries ending up within 40 miles of an existing Tractor Supply store, we have the foundation in place to scale a Final Mile network capable of serving our customers, whether that's for a single bag of product or several pallets. To support this, we're leveraging a fleet of Tractor Supply delivery drivers equipped with pickup trucks and trailers or stake bed trucks capable of handling these orders to these types of properties, but they're also capable of delivering smaller items while out on their delivery routes.

    而且,90% 的數位交付最終都會在現有 Tractor Supply 商店的 40 英里範圍內進行,我們已具備擴展「最後一英里」網路的基礎,能夠為客戶提供服務,無論是單一產品袋還是多個貨盤。為了支持這一點,我們正在利用一支配備皮卡車和拖車或平闆卡車的 Tractor Supply 送貨司機隊伍,這些司機能夠處理這些類型物業的訂單,但他們也能夠在送貨途中運送較小的物品。

  • Like the rest of our supply chain, this delivery network is built for the realities of rural living. With that backdrop, let me take a moment to update you on our Final Mile rollout, a powerful competitive differentiator and a key strategic enabler for our direct sales and digital growth initiatives, each of which we see as $1 billion incremental sales opportunities.

    就像我們供應鏈的其他部分一樣,這個配送網絡也是針對農村生活的實際情況而建立的。在此背景下,請允許我花點時間向您介紹我們的最後一英里計劃的進展情況,這是我們直銷和數位成長計劃的強大競爭優勢和關鍵戰略推動因素,我們將每項計劃都視為 10 億美元的增量銷售機會。

  • Since January of this year, the team has been incredibly busy with our phased rollout. This is a highly coordinated effort involving store operations, supply chain and technology all working together to ensure a seamless customer experience. I often compare our approach to that of the auto parts retailers, leveraging their existing store networks to enable last-mile delivery without building costly new distribution infrastructure.

    自今年 1 月以來,團隊一直忙於分階段推出新產品。這是一項高度協調的努力,涉及商店營運、供應鏈和技術的共同努力,以確保無縫的客戶體驗。我經常將我們的方法與汽車零件零售商的方法進行比較,利用他們現有的商店網路實現最後一英里的交付,而無需建立昂貴的新分銷基礎設施。

  • We're implementing a hub-and-spoke model. We are currently in market across 145 hub stores with an additional 220 stores covered as spokes. This brings our total final mile coverage to about 15% of stores covered at the halfway point of the year. By year-end, we anticipate having about 25% of the chain with Final Mile capabilities.

    我們正在實施中心輻射模型。目前,我們的市場涵蓋 145 家中心商店,另有 220 家商店作為輻射商店。這使得我們在年底的最後一英里覆蓋率達到約 15% 的門市。到年底,我們預計大約 25% 的連鎖店將具備「最後一哩路」配送能力。

  • All of this is in addition to the existing same-day delivery capabilities we have in all of our stores with third-party delivery partners. The early results from our Final Mile rollout are exceeding expectations, and they're proving out the value of this initiative as a meaningful growth driver.

    所有這些都是我們與第三方配送合作夥伴在所有商店中提供的當日配送服務的補充。我們推出的最後一哩計畫的早期成果超出了預期,並證明了該計畫作為有意義的成長動力的價值。

  • In markets where Final Mile is active, we're seeing average order size of nearly $400, which is a multiple of our average basket. Our largest order has been valued at more than $40,000, a higher customer satisfaction score than other delivery options, a 10 times lower return rate and stronger repeat engagement from high-value big barn customers.

    在 Final Mile 活躍的市場中,我們看到的平均訂單規模接近 400 美元,這是我們平均購物籃的數倍。我們最大的訂單價值超過 40,000 美元,客戶滿意度得分高於其他送貨方式,退貨率低 10 倍,高價值大穀倉客戶的重複參與度更高。

  • Our Final Mile is more than a logistics upgrade, we are playing offense where we have the infrastructure, the density and the trust to handle these types of deliveries in rural markets. Our drive for legendary service now extends beyond our stores and into our customers' barns, workshops and fields, reinforcing why Tractor Supply is the most dependable supplier for Life Out Here.

    我們的最後一哩路不僅僅是物流升級,我們還在利用我們擁有的基礎設施、密度和信任來處理農村市場中此類交付的進攻。我們對傳奇服務的追求現在已經超越了我們的商店,延伸到客戶的穀倉、車間和田野,這進一步證明了為什麼 Tractor Supply 是 Life Out Here 最可靠的供應商。

  • To wrap up, what sets our model apart is the integration of our distribution centers, mixing centers and local store hubs, enabling cost-effective fulfillment of more inventory without the need for massive stand-alone infrastructure build-out. This gives us a clear operational edge in the hard-to-reach final mile that's so critical in rural America. Now I'll turn it back over to Hal to close out our prepared remarks.

    總而言之,我們的模式的獨特之處在於整合了配送中心、調配中心和本地商店中心,從而能夠以經濟高效的方式滿足更多庫存需求,而無需大規模建設獨立的基礎設施。這使我們在美國農村地區難以到達的最後一英里具有明顯的營運優勢。現在我將把時間交還給哈爾來結束我們準備好的發言。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Colin. I hope Colin's update on our Final Mile progress convey the excitement and confidence we have in the strategic investment and the role it will play in further differentiating Tractor Supply from the competition. As we enter the back half of the year, we're focused on delivering highly relevant seasonal events, product innovation and exclusive brand launches that reinforce our leadership in rural lifestyle retail.

    謝謝你,科林。我希望科林對我們「最後一英里」進展的更新能夠傳達我們對戰略投資的興奮和信心,以及它在進一步使 Tractor Supply 在競爭中脫穎而出方面將發揮的作用。進入下半年,我們專注於舉辦高度相關的季節性活動、產品創新和獨家品牌發布,以鞏固我們在鄉村生活方式零售領域的領導地位。

  • From hardlines to lifestyle, pet to poultry and digital to in-store, we're strengthening our position as the most dependable supplier for our customers living Life Out Here. Over the next several weeks, we'll be celebrating Purina Days in store and online. Purina's iconic red checkerboard and Tractor Supply's deep rural roots share a heritage built on trust, quality and commitment to animal care. Together, we offer a partnership that no other retailer can replicate, grounded in decades of serving the needs of Life Out Here.

    從硬體產品到生活方式、從寵物到家禽、從數位到店內,我們正在加強我們作為客戶最可靠供應商的地位。在接下來的幾週內,我們將在店內和網路上慶祝普瑞納日。普瑞納 (Purina) 標誌性的紅色棋盤格和 Tractor Supply 深厚的鄉村根基都建立在信任、品質和對動物照護的承諾之上。我們共同建立了其他零售商無法複製的合作夥伴關係,這種合作關係以數十年來滿足 Life Out Here 的需求為基礎。

  • Nearly 90% of our customers own a pet or animal and approximately half have both. Purina Days allows us to deepen our connection with customers by showcasing expert knowledge, trust and nutrition solutions and exclusive offers to support the health and well-being across all their animal species. This event reinforces our leadership in animal nutrition and care from backyard chickens to show cattle and from barn cats to beloved family dogs.

    我們近 90% 的客戶都有寵物或動物,大約一半的客戶同時擁有這兩種動物。透過展示專業知識、信任和營養解決方案以及獨家優惠來支持所有動物物種的健康和福祉,普瑞納日讓我們能夠加深與客戶的聯繫。這次活動鞏固了我們在動物營養和護理方面的領導地位,從後院雞到展示牛,從穀倉貓到心愛的家犬。

  • Looking ahead, one of the marquee moments this fall would be our Deer Event, a signature seasonal activation that continues to gain traction with our customers year after year. This event is designed to meet the needs of outdoor enthusiasts and landowners preparing for the fall hunting season and wildlife season.

    展望未來,今年秋季最引人注目的時刻之一將是我們的鹿活動,這是一項標誌性的季節性活動,年復一年地受到我們顧客的青睞。這項活動旨在滿足戶外運動愛好者和土地所有者為秋季狩獵季節和野生動物季節做準備的需求。

  • We'll be featuring a curated assortment that includes deer feeds and attractants, wildlife and animal management products, trail cameras and seasonal apparel, all designed to help our customers prepare their land and gear up with confidence for the season. Importantly, the Deer Event drives cross-category engagement and reinforces our authority in outdoor, wildlife and hardlines.

    我們將推出精選商品,包括鹿飼料和引誘劑、野生動物和動物管理產品、追蹤相機和季節性服裝,所有這些都旨在幫助我們的客戶準備好他們的土地並為這個季節做好準備。重要的是,鹿活動推動了跨類別的參與,並加強了我們在戶外、野生動物和硬線領域的權威。

  • It also aligns seamlessly with our broader merchandising cadence and marketing strategy as we transition into fall. We're also excited to build out our Field & Stream offering, a long-term commitment to an iconic outdoor brand with a deep connection to the rural lifestyle. This move unites two names with a strong heritage for customers who love the outdoors. We're expanding the assortment to include wildlife, safes and outdoor gear, thoughtfully curated for the needs of our customers.

    隨著我們進入秋季,它也與我們更廣泛的商品銷售節奏和行銷策略無縫銜接。我們也很高興能夠推出 Field & Stream 產品,這是對與鄉村生活方式有著深厚聯繫的標誌性戶外品牌的長期承諾。此舉將兩個擁有悠久傳統的品牌聯合起來,為熱愛戶外活動的顧客提供服務。我們正在擴大產品範圍,包括野生動物、保險箱和戶外裝備,精心挑選以滿足客戶的需求。

  • Field & Stream is a natural fit within our portfolio, and we believe it will become a cornerstone of our long-term merchandising strategy. On the hardlines side, we're very pleased with the introduction of Lincoln Electric. This line includes welding tools and accessories that enhance our hardlines assortment and complement existing brands like Hobart and JobSmart, giving customers a wider range of price points and performance tiers.

    Field & Stream 與我們的產品組合完美契合,我們相信它將成為我們長期行銷策略的基石。在硬線方面,我們對林肯電氣的引入感到非常高興。該系列包括焊接工具和配件,增強了我們的硬線產品系列,並補充了 Hobart 和 JobSmart 等現有品牌,為客戶提供了更廣泛的價格點和性能層次。

  • Lincoln positions Tractor Supply as a serious destination for rural trades people, farmers and DIYers who demand performance and reliability. Looking further ahead, our Halloween, holiday and winter seasonal sets are coming together with a thoughtful mix of function and festivity. From cold weather gear to seasonal decor and gifting, our assortments are designed to deliver both inspiration and utility as our customers prepare for the colder months.

    林肯將 Tractor Supply 定位為追求性能和可靠性的農村商人、農民和 DIY 愛好者的重要目的地。展望未來,我們的萬聖節、假期和冬季季節性套裝將完美地融合功能性和喜慶性。從寒冷天氣裝備到季節性裝飾和禮品,我們的產品系列旨在為客戶準備寒冷的月份提供靈感和實用性。

  • Beyond seasonal execution, we remain focused on our new growth opportunities, including our direct sales and Final Mile solutions, our pet and animal Rx platform through the Allivet acquisition, fusion localization remodels and our growing retail media network. Each of these represents meaningful incremental value drivers as we continue to evolve our Life Out Here strategy.

    除了季節性執行之外,我們仍然專注於新的成長機會,包括我們的直銷和最後一哩解決方案、透過 Allivet 收購的寵物和動物 Rx 平台、融合本地化重塑以及我們不斷增長的零售媒體網絡。隨著我們繼續發展「Life Out Here」策略,上述每一個都代表著有意義的增量價值驅動力。

  • Our stores and online platform are ready for the second half of the year. We've invested in inventory, service and capabilities to help our customers live Life Out Here. As always, our team remains focused on what we can control, investing with purpose, managing cost with discipline and, most importantly, serving our customers.

    我們的商店和線上平台已為下半年做好了準備。我們投資了庫存、服務和能力,以幫助我們的客戶享受這裡的生活。像往常一樣,我們的團隊始終專注於我們能夠控制的事情,有目的地進行投資,有紀律地管理成本,最重要的是,服務我們的客戶。

  • Thank you for your time today. With that, operator, we're now ready to open up for questions.

    感謝您今天抽出時間。接線員,現在我們可以開始回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的西蒙古特曼。

  • Simeon Gutman - Analyst

    Simeon Gutman - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone and congratulations on the turn in comps. And Kurt, how should we think about the second half? We were prevailing. We had a little stronger traffic. Does the complexion of traffic and ticket changed at all in your mind versus where we were a quarter ago?

    大家早安,恭喜你們取得好成績。那麼庫爾特,我們該如何考慮下半場呢?我們勝利了。我們的交通稍微順暢一些。與一個季度前相比,您認為交通和罰單的情況有什麼變化嗎?

  • And then is there anything to call out with the traffic in the second quarter? Were there certain categories that got better, meaning transaction count got better versus getting a little bit worse?

    那麼第二季的交通狀況有什麼值得注意的嗎?是否有某些類別的情況變得更好,即交易數量有所改善還是有所惡化?

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Simeon, yes, thank you for the question. Good morning, everybody. In regards to second half comps, as I indicated in my prepared remarks and I'll share a little bit of extra color, first, on transactions. We have had consistent solid transactions throughout the first half of the year with a 2% transaction growth in Q1, 1% in Q2. Our transaction growth continues to be solid.

    西緬,是的,謝謝你的提問。大家早安。關於下半年的業績,正如我在準備好的演講中所指出的,我將分享一些額外的信息,首先是關於交易。我們的上半年交易量持續穩定,第一季交易量成長 2%,第二季成長 1%。我們的交易成長持續穩健。

  • We expect that to continue and to be a contributor to the second half of the year. It's the consumable side of the business and the growth in customers and Neighbor's Club members that are driving that. So we do not anticipate seeing those trends changing. In regards to the ticket side of it, we continue to see the evolution from and the shift from the deflationary impact moving to inflationary and then some of the other pressures, including tariff driving some benefit to the ticket.

    我們預計這種情況將持續下去,並為下半年做出貢獻。推動這一成長的是業務的消費方面以及客戶和鄰裡俱樂部會員的成長。因此我們預期這些趨勢不會改變。就機票方面而言,我們繼續看到通貨緊縮影響向通貨膨脹的演變和轉變,然後是一些其他壓力,包括關稅給機票帶來一些好處。

  • In summary, for the second half of the year, we see demand solid, our customers in a strong position. The expectation for the second half of the year would be balanced between both ticket and transactions, and it would continue to have a bit of a balance as you saw in second quarter. We are expecting, as I indicated, inflection and stronger comp sales in the back half of the year than the first half.

    總而言之,對於下半年,我們看到需求強勁,我們的客戶處於強勢地位。預計下半年票房和交易量將保持平衡,將延續第二季的平衡態勢。正如我所指出的,我們預計下半年的銷售額將出現轉折點,並且比上半年更加強勁。

  • Simeon Gutman - Analyst

    Simeon Gutman - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. Good luck.

    好的,謝謝。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Ohmes, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的羅伯特‧歐姆斯 (Robert Ohmes)。

  • Robert Ohmes - Analyst

    Robert Ohmes - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to just follow up on other drivers in the back half. The -- I know that there were some key seasonal items that were drivers in the second quarter. How are you guys thinking about a seasonal as a driver in the back half?

    早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想跟進後半部分的其他車手。我知道,第二季的一些關鍵季節性因素是推動因素。你們對於擔任後半段的車手進行季節性訓練有什麼想法?

  • And also, the July strength, was there any pull forward in that from your customers supporting big ticket or anything related to concerns about tariff pricing?

    此外,7 月的強勁表現是否受到顧客對大宗商品支持或與關稅定價擔憂有關的影響?

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hi Robby, and thanks for joining the call today and for the question. Just kind of doubling down on Kurt's comments about the second half. I'd start out by just saying we continue to be optimistic about a step change in our comp performance in the second half. We anticipated this really all the way back to our Investor Conference Day. We foreshadowed that.

    你好,羅比,感謝你今天參加電話會議並提出這個問題。只是加倍強調了庫爾特對下半場的評論。首先我想說的是,我們仍然對下半年公司業績的大幅提升持樂觀態度。我們在投資者會議日就已經預料到了這一點。我們預示了這一點。

  • We had reiterated it in our Q4 earnings call, talked about it again in our Q1 earnings call. And what we kind of foreshadowed and we're optimistic about is what is playing out. As it relates to the back half of the year, as Kurt said, we fully expect comp transactions to continue to be strong, and we expect we will have positive average ticket in the second half as well.

    我們在第四季度財報電話會議上重申了這一點,並在第一季財報電話會議上再次談到了這一點。我們對正在發生的事情有所預見,並且持樂觀態度。正如庫爾特所說,就今年下半年而言,我們完全預期可比交易將繼續保持強勁,並且我們預計下半年的平均票價也將為正。

  • Those two coming together to lead to a step change in our comp run rate from the first half of the year to the second half of the year. I'd say in addition to just the natural math, we have a number of things that are kind of playing to our advantage in the second half. The first is we have some favorable lapping. Last year, it was a really warm July with a lot of drought.

    這兩者結合在一起,導致我們的公司營業額從上半年到下半年發生了顯著變化。我想說,除了自然的數學之外,我們在下半場還有很多事情對我們有利。首先是我們有一些有利的研磨。去年七月天氣非常炎熱,但乾旱嚴重。

  • It's the exact opposite this year with a lot of moisture in the ground and continued very strong momentum in the month of July. So to your point, Robby, did we pull things from July into June? Absolutely not. In fact, the momentum, as I mentioned in the call from June has continued and even strengthened into July.

    今年的情況恰恰相反,地面濕氣充足,七月份的勢頭持續強勁。那麼,羅比,按照你的觀點,我們是不是把 7 月份的事情拖到了 6 月份?絕對不是。事實上,正如我在 6 月份的電話會議中提到的那樣,這種勢頭一直持續到 7 月份,甚至有所加強。

  • So we have favorable momentum in July lapping. As you look into the balance of the year, we've got likely favorable lapping with the lack of emergency response last year. There was really only one notable storm last year, and it kind of split a little bit across Q3 and Q4. And then we had really no winter in our Q3.

    因此我們在七月的研磨方面有良好的勢頭。回顧今年的收支平衡,由於去年缺乏緊急應變,我們很可能會取得有利的進展。去年實際上只發生了一場顯著的風暴,並且它在第三季度和第四季度略有分佈。然後我們的第三季確實沒有冬天。

  • So we have a lot of favorability in kind of last year lapping as well. And the final thing I'll add is rural America is doing very well right now. There is strong consumer confidence in rural America. We continue to see domestic migration into rural America. Rural America disproportionately benefit from the job creation that's going on.

    因此,我們對去年的研磨也抱持著很大的讚賞。最後我要補充的是,美國農村地區目前發展得很好。美國農村地區的消費者信心強勁。我們不斷看到國內移民湧入美國農村。美國農村地區從正在進行的就業創造中獲益匪淺。

  • If you look at the 2.2 million gross jobs that have been created this year, there's a disproportion of those in rural America next to urban America. And Life Out Here is doing very well. So as we look towards the back half of the year, we've got favorable kind of just math dynamics. We've got favorable lapping. We've got a lot of events in place, and we've got rural America doing well. So we feel very good about our second half and the inflection that we're optimistic about, and we're already seeing it as I said in our July numbers.

    如果你看今年新增的 220 萬個就業崗位,你會發現美國農村地區的就業機會與城市地區的就業比例不均衡。Life Out Here 的表現非常好。因此,當我們展望下半年時,我們會看到有利的數學動態。我們有良好的研磨。我們已經舉辦了很多活動,美國農村也發展得很好。因此,我們對下半年的業績和前景感到樂觀,正如我在 7 月的數據中所說的那樣,我們已經看到了這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Horvers, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的克里斯霍弗斯。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So my question is, do you think that the weather was a net headwind in the second quarter? Perhaps that the right trend is 2% as we're building into the back half? And as you think about the acceleration that you mentioned in June and July, it seems like maybe June was running mid-single digit if you were flat heading into June and July would be better.

    早安.感謝您回答我的問題。所以我的問題是,您是否認為天氣因素是第二季的淨阻力?也許,隨著我們進入下半年,正確的趨勢是 2%?當您考慮您提到的 6 月和 7 月的加速時,似乎 6 月的成長率可能在個位數的中間水平,如果 6 月和 7 月的成長率持平的話會更好。

  • So the other way to ask the question would be, do you look at March to July in its entirety in terms of the base of comp and as we think about the acceleration in the back half? And any comment on explicit inflation expectations in the back half?

    因此,提出問題的另一種方式是,您是否從公司基數的角度來看待整個 3 月至 7 月的情況,並考慮後半部分的加速情況?下半年明確的通膨預期有何評論?

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Just a couple of follow-ups on that. Yes, I mean, I think spring, first of all, plays out different every year. And so there's kind of a natural starting point to spring and a natural kind of end point to spring every year and it kind of just -- those are different every year and you have different peaks every year. This year, spring started significantly late.

    對此我只想說幾句後續話。是的,我的意思是,首先我認為春天每年都有不同的景象。因此,每年春天都有一個自然的起點和終點,而且每年的起點和終點都不同,高峰也不同。今年春天來得明顯晚。

  • I mean, arguably, even in the deep South, it was mid- to late March before you even saw the spring uptick. And it was early May in the North, arguably a little later that you saw it. So I would say it shifted back four to six weeks on the start. And then on the end, I don't think it's finished yet. A lot of times, it will end July 4, sometimes Father's Day.

    我的意思是,可以說,即使在美國南部腹地,也要到三月中下旬才能看到春季的上漲。當時北方是五月初,可以說你看到它的時間稍晚。所以我想說它比開始時推遲了四到六週。最後,我認為它還沒有完成。很多時候,它會在 7 月 4 日結束,有時是父親節。

  • This year, it's extended beyond. We have a lot of moisture in the ground, grasses are green, bugs are out, weeds are out. There's a lot of mowing, a lot of weed control, a lot of pest control still occurring. All that said, our C.U.E. business continues to be very strong, poultry, equine, bedding. You look across the board, lubricants right now, propane sales, forage, those businesses are doing very, very well. So it's not just seasonal.

    今年,這項範圍進一步擴大。地面濕潤,草木蔥蘢,蟲子和雜草都長出來了。仍需要進行大量的割草、除草和害蟲防治工作。儘管如此,我們的 C.U.E. 業務仍然非常強勁,包括家禽、馬匹和床上用品。縱觀目前的情況,潤滑油、丙烷銷售、飼料等業務都表現得非常非常好。所以它不僅僅是季節性的。

  • Final point, to your comment on the 2% comp, I guess while we're not giving quarter-to-quarter comps, what I would say is that what's implied -- as Kurt said, we're guiding the business to the midpoint of our annual guidance. And that certainly implies higher than a 2% comp for the back half of the year, and that is what we are looking for.

    最後一點,關於您對 2% 同比增長的評論,我想,雖然我們沒有提供季度同比數據,但我想說的是,正如 Kurt 所說,這意味著我們將業務引導至年度指導的中點。這當然意味著下半年的年增幅將高於 2%,而這正是我們所期望的。

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Chris, this is Kurt. I'll just add on the inflation question that you asked for. That does imply with ticket increase that we are seeing not just in the commodity, that's not where the expected inflation is, but there will be incremental inflation across the entirety of the product category. So yes, we do anticipate having some inflationary benefit in the back half of the year versus the historical deflation that we've been seeing in the last two years.

    克里斯,這是庫爾特。我只想補充一下您詢問的通貨膨脹問題。這確實意味著我們看到的票價上漲不僅僅是在商品中,這不是預期的通貨膨脹,而是整個產品類別都會出現增量通貨膨脹。所以是的,我們確實預計今年下半年與過去兩年經歷的歷史通貨緊縮相比,通膨將出現一些好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Sigman, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的塞思‧西格曼。

  • Seth Sigman - Analyst

    Seth Sigman - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Actually, I was going to follow up on that last point around the inflation. Can you talk a little bit more about the cadence of the price changes that you're planning here that drives that inflation in the back half of the year?

    嘿,大家早安。實際上,我正要繼續討論通貨膨脹的最後一點。您能否再多談談您計劃在下半年推動通貨膨脹的價格變化節奏?

  • And I think at some point, we may have talked about low to mid-single-digit type of tariff-driven inflation. Is that still your expectation for the second half of the year? And then just finally, elasticity, what have you embedded here for the guidance? Any thoughts on that?

    我認為,在某個時候,我們可能談論過由關稅驅動的低至中等個位數通膨。您對下半年的期待還是如此嗎?最後,關於彈性,您在這裡嵌入了什麼作為指導?對此有什麼想法嗎?

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We're roughly planning for a balanced ticket and comp transactions for the back half, as Kurt said, so you can kind of reverse engineer that on what our implied comps are and what our implied average ticket that we'd need for the second half. And there's a little range in that. We feel very confident in looking at what our average ticket is going to be for Q3 and Q4 on our C.U.E. products.

    正如庫爾特所說,我們大致計劃在下半年實現平衡的票價和補償交易,因此您可以對我們的隱含補償以及下半年所需的隱含平均票價進行逆向工程。這其中存在一個小範圍。我們非常有信心地預測 C.U.E. 產品在第三季和第四季的平均票價。

  • Those we have great visibility to on its current average unit retail, what our average unit -- moving average unit costs are and how that's going to play out in the second half. That's been the underlying inflation that we've been calling out for two or three quarters, and that we still have very good visibility to.

    我們對其目前的平均單位零售量、我們的平均單位——移動平均單位成本是多少以及下半年將如何發展有著清晰的了解。這是我們兩三個季度以來一直呼籲的潛在通膨,我們對此仍然有很好的預見性。

  • On the tariff-related products, we have excellent visibility into what that pricing will be for Q3 and have good visibility into how that will affect our AUR, and we'll be watching for elasticities very closely. Q4, we have good visibility into but are still being -- maintaining a lot of flexibility with all of our eyes on the August 1 tariff deadline.

    對於與關稅相關的產品,我們對第三季的定價有很好的了解,並且很清楚這將如何影響我們的 AUR,我們將密切關注彈性。第四季度,我們對此有很好的了解,但仍然保持很大的靈活性,因為我們全神貫注於 8 月 1 日的關稅截止日期。

  • And we've put in place a number of tactics to give us a lot of flexibility in Q4 on pricing. And we've got a lot of draft spreadsheets on pricing and that -- a lot of that will be determined post August 1. We've got a lot of flexibility on that. But net-net, there's a relative level of implied inflation on all of our tariff products. It's just varying ranges and we leverage our portfolio strategy for that.

    我們採取了一系列策略,以便在第四季度的定價方面擁有很大的靈活性。我們有很多關於定價的電子表格草案,其中許多將在 8 月 1 日之後確定。我們在這方面有很大的彈性。但整體而言,我們所有的關稅產品都存在相對的隱含通膨水準。這只是不同的範圍,我們利用我們的投資組合策略來實現這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Zaccone, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的史蒂文·扎科內。

  • Steven Zaccone - Analyst

    Steven Zaccone - Analyst

  • Great, good morning. Thanks very much for taking my question. A lot of focus on same-store sales. I wanted to shift to margins. As you know, you're calling for this step change in comps in the back half of the year. Can you just help us think to the flow-through to margins and then EPS?

    太好了,早安。非常感謝您回答我的問題。非常關注同店銷售額。我想轉向邊緣。如您所知,您呼籲在今年下半年對同店銷售額進行這項重大改變。您能幫我們思考一下利潤率和每股盈餘的流向嗎?

  • Maybe what drives upside to the gross margin in the back half? And then on SG&A, Kurt, just help us think through the level of same-store sales growth you need to leverage SG&A?

    也許是什麼推動了下半年毛利率的上升?然後關於銷售、一般和行政費用,Kurt,您能幫助我們思考一下需要達到怎樣的同店銷售額增長水平才能利用銷售、一般和行政費用嗎?

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Yes. Steven, on the operating margin, the first half for the -- versus the second half is very much two different stories, and I'll try to give you a bit of additional color in regards to the reference points that I already had in my prepared remarks. But in the gross margin, we had easier compares, and we start to lap some of those benefits in the second half of the year.

    是的。史蒂文,就營業利潤率而言,上半年與下半年是兩個完全不同的情況,我將嘗試根據我在準備好的發言中已經提到的參考點,為你提供一些額外的說明。但在毛利率方面,我們更容易進行比較,我們在下半年開始獲得一些收益。

  • So as we said in the beginning of the year going into this year, we saw stronger gross margin performance in the first half than the second half. So of our range on gross margin, the second half of the year will be at the low end of that range on gross margin.

    正如我們在今年年初所說的那樣,我們看到上半年的毛利率表現強於下半年。因此,在我們的毛利率範圍內,下半年的毛利率將處於該範圍的低端。

  • On the SG&A side, as we've now lapped the opening of a distribution center and have higher comps expected for the back half of the year, while we see the gross margin below the first half -- in the second half, we also see SG&A really almost half of the level of deleverage in the second half that you saw in the first half.

    在銷售、一般及行政費用方面,由於我們現在已經開設了配送中心,預計下半年的銷售額會更高,雖然我們看到毛利率低於上半年——但在下半年,我們還看到銷售、一般及行政費用實際上幾乎是上半年去槓桿水平的一半。

  • So operating margin in our -- if you look at the base case, there's some operating margin decline year-over-year. We said we're making investments in these strategic initiatives. On the gross margin, mix is a little bit stronger pressure this year. Tariffs puts a little bit of pressure, but we believe we can still maintain, even at these elevated comps, we can maintain the operating margin rate that we gave in our guide.

    因此,如果你看一下基本情況,我們的營業利潤率就會比去年同期下降。我們說過我們正在對這些戰略舉措進行投資。就毛利率而言,今年產品組合的壓力稍微大一些。關稅帶來了一些壓力,但我們相信我們仍然可以維持,即使在這些較高的同店銷售額下,我們也可以保持我們在指南中給出的營業利潤率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lasser, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的麥可拉瑟。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • One for Seth and one for Colin. My question for Seth, is the nature of the inflation that Tractor is going to benefit from in the back half of the year going to be different than the market has been accustomed to where it's going to be more on the non-C.U.E. items? So what have you seen already from an elasticity perspective and how are you planning that?

    一個給塞斯,一個給科林。我想問 Seth,今年下半年拖拉機將受益的通貨膨脹的性質是否會與市場已經習慣的通貨膨脹有所不同,即通貨膨脹將更多地集中在非 C.U.E. 項目上?那麼從彈性角度來看您已經看到了什麼以及您如何規劃呢?

  • And then my question for Colin is on the new capabilities, obviously, Amazon is making a big push in the rural areas. Does Tractor's new capabilities make it more of a competitor to this other big player? And does that change the complexion of the business?

    然後我要問科林關於新功能的問題,顯然,亞馬遜正在大力推動農村地區業務。Tractor 的新功能是否會使它成為其他大公司的競爭對手?這會改變業務狀況嗎?

  • Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer, Tractor Supply Company

    Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer, Tractor Supply Company

  • Yes, thanks, Michael. This is Seth, thanks for the question. To hit your first question first on elasticities and kind of the nature of inflation in the back half, to piggyback some of Hal's comments, first and foremost, I would just say we have a portfolio pricing approach to how we can manage both our margin dollars and margin rate as we approach pricing in the back half.

    是的,謝謝,邁克爾。我是 Seth,謝謝你的提問。首先回答你關於彈性和下半年通貨膨脹性質的第一個問題,為了附和哈爾的一些評論,首先也是最重要的,我只想說,我們有一個投資組合定價方法,用於在下半年定價時如何管理我們的保證金和保證金率。

  • I would just say the merchants have been working with our suppliers to assess where we can go find alternative sources of supply. We have had a tariff task force quickly stood up to where we can navigate some of the cost or cost pressures that might be coming through. And at this time, they are moderate in nature with the ability to approach those with a partnership approach.

    我想說的是,商家一直在與我們的供應商合作,評估我們可以在哪裡找到替代的供應來源。我們已經迅速成立了一個關稅工作小組,以便我們能夠應對可能出現的一些成本或成本壓力。此時,他們性格溫和,能夠以合作的方式與人接觸。

  • In the past, when we've seen similar inflationary factors that aren't just C.U.E.-related, specifically in times like we're navigating right now, whether it be tariffs in 2018, 2019 as well as just the inflationary period coming out of COVID, when the entire market tends to have to make strategic pricing moves and move, typically elasticities tend to go down slightly as well.

    過去,當我們看到類似的通膨因素時,這些因素不僅與 C.U.E. 有關,特別是在我們現在所處的時期,無論是 2018 年、2019 年的關稅,還是 COVID 之後的通膨時期,當整個市場往往不得不採取戰略性定價舉措時,彈性通常也會略有下降。

  • pWe are -- we have a bunch of different scenarios modeled. Feel good about the tools and the team we have in place, and I'm confident in the belief that we'll be able to appropriately manage the margins as we look to the back half.

    p我們-我們已經模擬了許多不同的場景。對我們現有的工具和團隊感到滿意,我相信我們能夠在後半段適當地管理利潤。

  • Colin Yankee - Executive Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer

    Colin Yankee - Executive Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer

  • Yes, Michael, for the second part of the question there, what I'd say is what we're doing is we're taking a contemporary approach to rural delivery with all the systems and sophistication that you expect from Tractor Supply as we compete with regional competitors, co-ops, your local fencing company.

    是的,邁克爾,對於問題的第二部分,我想說的是,我們正在採取一種現代化的方式進行農村配送,採用所有系統和復雜程度,正如您所期望的,Tractor Supply 在我們與地區競爭對手、合作社和您當地的圍欄公司競爭時所採用的那樣。

  • We have great confidence in this initiative because we've got the locations where our customers live, we have the inventory our customers need, and we have the supply chain built for this rural terrain. Just a little bit of color/commentary on what we're doing.

    我們對此舉充滿信心,因為我們了解客戶居住的地點,我們有客戶需要的庫存,我們有針對這個鄉村地形建立的供應鏈。只是對我們正在做的事情進行一點點評論。

  • In Q2, our team did 75,000 deliveries out there in the market. 75,000 times, we've been able to go out in people's properties and engage with them and extend that legendary service out there. We're able to get a wider variety of products using our Final Mile delivery out there in greater quantities.

    在第二季度,我們的團隊在市場上完成了 75,000 次送貨。 75,000 次,我們能夠走進人們的家中,與他們互動,並將這項傳奇服務擴展到那裡。透過「最後一哩路」配送,我們得以運送更多種類、更多數量的產品。

  • But also we're seeing customers choose that for the more convenience types of deliveries that they need as they're managing their lifestyle and their jobs as they live their lives there. I cannot understate the power of the trust and the relationship between our drivers and the customer and the relationship that's there, that is different than other kind of delivery providers.

    但我們也看到,顧客選擇這種方式是為了獲得更方便的送貨服務,因為他們可以在那裡管理自己的生活方式和工作。我不能低估我們的司機和客戶之間的信任和關係的力量,這種關係與其他類型的送貨服務提供者不同。

  • What I'll say is we're only going to get better as we continue to build this out. We're going to keep you updated on it, but we're really looking on how we're extending our legendary service from our stores out on to our customers' properties, not a fundamental change in the business model.

    我想說的是,隨著我們不斷努力,我們只會變得更好。我們將隨時向您通報最新情況,但我們真正關注的是如何將我們傳奇的服務從我們的商店延伸到客戶的家中,而不是從根本上改變商業模式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

    Chuck Grom,Gordon Haskett 研究顧問。

  • Chuck Grom - Analyst

    Chuck Grom - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks. Good morning. Can you discuss early results in PetRx? How many Neighbor's Club members were already using PetRx? And then how many Neighbor's Club members, I guess, can you add to it? And just on the weather as we move into the back half of the year, can you remind us how much in lost sales you think you saw last year in November and December? Obviously, the weather wasn't good but the forecast for November and December is much better for you. So just curious on that front.

    嘿,謝謝。早安.您能討論一下 PetRx 的早期結果嗎?有多少鄰裡俱樂部會員已經在使用 PetRx?那我猜你能增加多少鄰裡俱樂部成員呢?關於下半年的天氣狀況,您能否提醒我們一下,您認為去年 11 月和 12 月的銷售損失是多少?顯然,天氣不太好,但 11 月和 12 月的天氣預報對你會好得多。所以只是對此感到好奇。

  • Robert Mills - Executive Vice President, Chief Technology, Digital Commerce and Strategy Officer

    Robert Mills - Executive Vice President, Chief Technology, Digital Commerce and Strategy Officer

  • All right, Chuck. This is Rob Mills. First, thank you for the question on Allivet. I first want to kind of begin just talking a little bit and sharing just a great appreciation across both Allivet and the TSC teams on this focused strategic initiative. This is a new category for us. We've seen strong cross-functional collaboration between the two organizations. And big picture, we're integrating very nicely.

    好的,查克。這是羅布·米爾斯。首先,感謝您對 Allivet 的提問。首先,我想簡單談談我對 Allivet 和 TSC 團隊這項重點策略舉措的高度讚賞。這對我們來說是一個新類別。我們看到兩個組織之間強大的跨職能合作。從整體來看,我們的整合非常順利。

  • In early May, we launched the Rx and OTC categories onto Tractor Supply's platform as well as our mobile property. The launch went really well. We're seeing really strong momentum in the growth of orders and customer adoptions. Prior to this, the Neighbor's Club penetration was low, but we're putting extreme focus on leveraging our Neighbor's Club data, the capabilities, driving specific campaigns and we're seeing good adoption rate.

    5 月初,我們在 Tractor Supply 平台以及我們的行動資產上推出了 Rx 和 OTC 類別。這次發布會進行得很順利。我們看到訂單和客戶採用量的成長動能非常強勁。在此之前,鄰居俱樂部的普及率很低,但我們非常注重利用鄰居俱樂部的數據和功能,推動特定的活動,並且我們看到了良好的採用率。

  • We haven't shared any kind of formal numbers. We're early into this journey so we're getting a lot of learnings out of the way. But with that being said, we have strong momentum. When we think about the customer growth, I could tell you in Q2, we saw the strongest customer acquisition growth that we've seen in many years across the Rx and OTC category, especially when you look at the Allivet business.

    我們還沒有分享任何正式的數字。我們剛剛踏上這一旅程,因此我們已經學到了很多。但話雖如此,我們的勢頭仍然強勁。當我們考慮客戶成長時,我可以告訴您,在第二季度,我們看到了多年來在 Rx 和 OTC 類別中看到的最強勁的客戶獲取成長,尤其是當您查看 Allivet 業務時。

  • Looking ahead briefly, Q3, we're putting investments on that customer experience. We've gotten some great learnings and feedback from our Neighbor's Club customers. You'll see us focused on even more ease of how we transfer that script, driving in-store training, adoption with our team members, to drive education with our customers and then just overall awareness through Neighbor's Club messaging, promotional testing and then leveraging the tools that we have with pet washes, mobile clinics and just in-store signage.

    簡要展望第三季度,我們將對客戶體驗進行投資。我們從鄰居俱樂部的客戶那裡得到了一些很好的學習和回饋。您會看到我們專注於更輕鬆地傳輸腳本,推動店內培訓,與我們的團隊成員一起採用,推動對客戶的教育,然後通過鄰居俱樂部的信息傳遞、促銷測試來提高整體意識,然後利用我們擁有的工具,包括寵物清洗、移動診所和店內標牌。

  • So big picture, we're excited. We're early in this journey. We're seeing great adoption, more to come. We'll keep you updated but we have a positive trend, and week-over-week, we're growing.

    整體來看,我們非常興奮。我們才剛踏上這段旅程。我們看到了廣泛的採用,未來還會有更多。我們會隨時向您通報最新情況,但我們有一個正面的趨勢,而且我們正在逐週成長。

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Chuck, this is Kurt. And on regards to the second half weather last year, the two biggest pressure points where we last year in the second half landed really or produced really about a flattish comp. We said weather and some of the pressure on discretionary spend last year. Q3 had the biggest weather pressure, and we saw no real favorable weather with the heat and the drought.

    查克,這是庫爾特。就去年下半年的天氣而言,我們去年下半年面臨的兩個最大壓力點實際上或實際上產生了持平的局面。我們提到了去年天氣和可自由支配支出的一些壓力。第三季的天氣壓力最大,高溫、乾旱,沒有看到真正有利的天氣。

  • So we are cycling two quarters where weather was a net negative. We didn't quantify the specifics then, so I won't try to go ahead and project that. But we know as Hal said, that's a -- it's a favorable compare that we'll be lapping this second half.

    因此,我們已經經歷了兩個季度的天氣負面因素。我們當時沒有量化具體細節,所以我不會嘗試繼續預測這一點。但我們知道,正如哈爾所說,這是一個有利的比較,我們將在下半場取得進展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Forbes, Guggenheim.

    史蒂文福布斯,古根漢。

  • Steven Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Forbes - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Hal or maybe Colin, maybe just a follow-up on the Final Mile initiative, a two-parter here. So you mentioned AOVs of $400, but curious if you can comment on who the early adopters are, right, as we think back to sort of your customer segmentation work that you did during the Analyst Day.

    大家早安。哈爾 (Hal) 或科林 (Colin),也許只是「最後一哩路」計畫的後續,這裡分為兩部分。所以您提到了 400 美元的 AOV,但我很好奇您是否可以評論一下早期採用者是誰,對吧,當我們回想一下您在分析師日期間所做的客戶細分工作時。

  • And then second part, right, how should we frame the ROI ramp of this offering, given the comments around fleet and driver investments, 75,000 quarterly deliveries in the second quarter? But what's like the breakeven number of deliveries and how do we think about sort of the unlock of ROI?

    然後是第二部分,對吧,考慮到有關車隊和司機投資的評論,第二季度的季度交付量為 75,000 輛,我們應該如何構建該產品的投資回報率增長?但是,盈虧平衡交付數量是多少以及我們如何看待投資報酬率的解鎖?

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Steven, I appreciate the question, and thanks for joining the call. Two things. On the customer side, it's very much the big barn customer that we laid out in our Investor Conference Day. These are landowners, animal owners, multi-species animal owners, and their needs are on a weekly basis or more so, and they buy in high order volumes.

    是的。史蒂文,我很感謝你提出這個問題,也謝謝你參加電話會議。兩件事。在客戶方面,它就像我們在投資者會議日上展示的那個大穀倉客戶。這些人是土地所有者、動物主人、多物種動物主人,他們的需求是每週一次或更多,而且他們的購買量很大。

  • And as Colin was laying out, the competition that we're facing as we go out and start to call on these customers is a really fragmented set of competition, whether it's the local co-ops. We're seeing a lot of fencing sales so there's a lot of local fencing contractors and those sorts of things that we're competing with.

    正如科林所闡述的,當我們出去開始拜訪這些客戶時,我們面臨的競爭是一場真正分散的競爭,無論是當地的合作社。我們看到很多圍欄銷售,因此有很多本地圍欄承包商和諸如此類的公司在與我們競爭。

  • But we're finding the market to be exactly what we anticipated it to be from a customer perspective. As it relates to the ROI, first off, I'll remind you that the delivery is expense-based. And so we can throttle our investment up and down, whether at an enterprise level or at an individual hub and market level based on the demand that we're seeing.

    但我們發現,從客戶的角度來看,市場狀況與我們預期的完全一致。由於它與投資回報率有關,首先,我要提醒您,交付是基於費用的。因此,我們可以根據我們看到的需求來增加或減少我們的投資,無論是在企業層面還是在單一中心和市場層面。

  • I'll also remind you that there's three ways -- three levers of demand that the Final Mile is delivering. The first is direct sales, and oftentimes, those two are inextricably linked and should be. But there's also two other levers. Our online bulk orders, which is well over $100 million, $150 million -- nearly $200 million of sales, those will now flow through our final mile as well. We will no longer be relying on third-party delivery for that.

    我還要提醒大家,「最後一哩路」透過三種方式——三種需求槓桿來提供。首先是直銷,很多時候,這兩者是密不可分的,而且應該是這樣。但還有另外兩個槓桿。我們的線上批量訂單,銷售額超過 1 億美元、1.5 億美元——接近 2 億美元,這些訂單現在也將通過我們的最後一英里。我們將不再依賴第三方交付。

  • Those have really low customer set, high return rates. So there's a lot of ROI that comes along with those. And then finally, it enables delivery of items in store when the store sells them and we're unable -- the customer is unable to get them home. So there's three means for that. There's revenue generation, shipping revenue generation that comes along with each as well as obviously product demand fulfillment.

    這些公司的客戶群確實很低,回報率很高。因此,這些都會帶來大量的投資回報。最後,當商店售出商品而我們無法——顧客無法將商品帶回家時,它可以將商品送到店內。因此有三種方法可以實現這一點。隨之而來的是收入的產生、運輸收入的產生、產品需求的滿足。

  • We haven't shared the ROIs across each one of those. But as time goes on, you can expect to hear more from us on each of those pieces. But we remain as bullish on them now as we did six to seven months ago when we had our IC Day, if not even more. Thanks for the question.

    我們還沒有分享每一個的投資報酬率。但隨著時間的推移,您可以期待聽到我們對這些作品的更多評論。但我們現在對它們的看好程度與六、七個月前我們舉辦 IC Day 時一樣,甚至更強烈。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Bellinger, Mizuho.

    瑞穗的戴維·貝林格。

  • David Bellinger - Analyst

    David Bellinger - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. It's on the buyback being notch lower. Can you walk us through why the magnitude of the change this year is so dramatic? Where is that capital shifting? And does it say anything at all on how you view your stock and the valuation that's currently attached to it?

    嘿,大家早安。謝謝你的提問。這是因為回購額度較低。您能否向我們解釋為什麼今年的變化如此巨大?這些資本都轉移到哪裡去了?這是否表明了您如何看待您的股票以及目前對其的估值?

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Kurt here. We've -- in our long-term guidance, I think it's helpful to first just state in our long-term guidance, we've said in our capital allocation after the commitment to the dividend, we are opportunistic in share repurchases. We are committed to being a buyer of our stock. Our target is to remove 1% to 2% of net shares out annually. Our guidance originally put us at the high end of that.

    庫爾特在這裡。在我們的長期指導中,我認為首先在我們的長期指導中說明這一點是有幫助的,我們在承諾股息後的資本配置中說過,我們在股票回購方面是機會主義的。我們致力於成為我們股票的買家。我們的目標是每年減少 1% 至 2% 的淨股票。我們的指導最初將我們置於這一水平的高端。

  • As we see the capital investment, particularly in inventory and how tariff -- the capital we spent on tariffs that will go on the balance sheet in an environment with higher interest rates, we're being very prudent and wise in our capital allocation and just deciding we're going to make that investment.

    正如我們所見,資本投資,特別是庫存和關稅方面的投資——在利率較高的環境下,我們花在關稅上的資本將計入資產負債表,我們在資本配置方面非常謹慎和明智,只是決定進行這項投資。

  • And as we're in a time of tariff increases to spend the capital there. We have the ability to still remove 1% of the float out of the stock and be able to do that and just shift some of that capital spend from share repurchases into our working capital on inventory and put us in a great position.

    我們正處於關稅上調的時期,需要在那裡投入資金。我們仍然有能力從股票中抽取 1% 的流通股,並且能夠做到這一點,只需將部分股票回購的資本支出轉移到我們的庫存營運資本中,就能讓我們處於有利地位。

  • So it does not change our guidance in regards to this year's net earnings per share, and so therefore, we think it's the right prudent thing to do for this year. And again, I'll just reiterate, it does not take us outside of what we've said would be our parameters of how we engage in share repurchases.

    因此,這不會改變我們對今年每股淨收益的預期,因此,我們認為這是今年正確而謹慎的做法。我再強調一次,這不會讓我們超越我們所謂的股票回購的參數範圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Benedict, Baird.

    彼得·本尼迪克特,貝爾德。

  • Peter Benedict - Analyst

    Peter Benedict - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I guess there was a comment, I think maybe it was Hal, when you mentioned the term in the pet category or pet food, just maybe, Seth, I don't know if it's for you, could you expand on that? What exactly are you seeing? And how -- what's your outlook around the pet category?

    大家好,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。我想肯定有人評論過,我想可能是哈爾 (Hal),當你提到寵物類別或寵物食品中的術語時,也許吧,塞思 (Seth),我不知道這是否適合你,你能詳細說明一下嗎?你到底看到了什麼?您對寵物類別有何看法?

  • Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer, Tractor Supply Company

    Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer, Tractor Supply Company

  • Peter, it's Seth. Thanks for the question. On pet performance in the categories, Hal mentioned in the prepared remarks to your point, we do believe that we're at the point of basically some of the trough where demand had slowed.

    彼得,我是塞斯。謝謝你的提問。關於寵物在各個類別中的表現,哈爾在準備好的評論中提到了你的觀點,我們確實相信我們基本上處於需求放緩的低谷期。

  • And we're starting to see that we are going to have and believe we have some tailwinds as we kind of look ahead, albeit potentially at maybe a little bit slower rate than historically we have run but really are leaning into some of the key core capabilities and are continuing to take market share. And I'd just -- I'd touch on a couple of other quick things quickly and where we're investing in pet.

    我們開始看到,我們將擁有並相信,展望未來,我們將擁有一些順風,儘管速度可能比歷史上慢一點,但我們確實傾向於一些關鍵的核心能力,並將繼續佔領市場份額。我只是想快速談談其他一些事情以及我們在寵物方面的投資。

  • First, as Rob articulated of PetRx, we're pleased with how that's getting started. Our service offerings, we're seeing tremendous demand for in our in-store like vet service clinics that we have as well as our 1,000 pet washes. Over the course of this past month, all of our dog food, our cat food, several accessories in this week, our pet treat categories all gone through a major reset activity where we are introducing new brands, expanding brands that we're seeing traction in as well as introducing new products across like for health, whether it be with Shreds or our new UNTAMED product that we have out there.

    首先,正如 Rob 談到 PetRx 時所說,我們對它的起步感到滿意。我們的服務產品,我們看到了對我們店內獸醫服務診所以及 1,000 家寵物洗浴中心的巨大需求。在過去的一個月裡,我們所有的狗糧、貓糧、本週的幾種配件、寵物零食類別都經歷了一次重大的重置活動,我們推出了新品牌,擴大了我們看到的吸引力的品牌,並推出了新的健康產品,無論是 Shreds 還是我們新推出的 UNTAMED 產品。

  • And then finally, throughout the course of the first half of this year, when we went through our localization project, we created a newer format for what we were seeing, we were putting infusion, and we have even retro gone back in what we are calling our five -- we're calling it the 5G+ format.

    最後,在今年上半年,當我們進行在地化專案時,我們為所看到的內容創建了一種更新的格式,我們進行了融合,我們甚至回到了我們所謂的「五」——我們稱之為 5G+ 格式。

  • And at this point, we have over 500 stores that we have gone and put this new format in. It has a couple of hundred incremental SKUs. We should have over 800 by the end of the year. And we're seeing very positive results coming out of that outpacing the balance of the chain. So a lot of work going into pet to make sure it's such an important category for us as well as just our customer ownership with animal ownership, and I believe we're going to continue to take share.

    目前,我們已經在 500 多家商店採用了這種新模式。它有幾百個增量 SKU。到今年年底,我們的人數應該會超過 800 人。我們看到了非常正面的成果,超越了鏈條的平衡。因此,我們在寵物領域投入了大量精力,以確保它對我們來說是一個非常重要的類別,並且我們的客戶對動物的所有權也是如此,我相信我們將繼續佔據市場份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scot Ciccarelli, Truist.

    斯科特·西卡雷利(Scot Ciccarelli),Truist。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst

    Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. I know you've been asked about this already with the last-mile delivery, and I think Michael mentioned Amazon. But can you just provide maybe your broader latest thoughts around the competitive environment? Because it's not just Amazon, right?

    大家早安。謝謝你把我擠進來。我知道您已經被問過關於最後一英里交付的問題了,我認為邁克爾提到了亞馬遜。但是您能否提供您對競爭環境的更廣泛的最新想法?因為它不僅僅是亞馬遜,對吧?

  • We've had Walmart expanding their delivery capabilities. You've had Lowe's expanding their rural assortment expansion. And obviously, these are much larger companies than some of your historical competitors.

    我們已經讓沃爾瑪擴大了他們的配送能力。勞氏公司正在擴大其農村商品種類的擴張。顯然,這些公司比你們過去的一些競爭對手要大得多。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Scot, thanks for joining the call. I appreciate the question. Stepping back, I'd say farm and ranch channel has always been a channel that people have had an eye towards and have looked to invest towards or rural America as well. I can think back, as you all know, I worked at a big-box home improvement store, and I can think back to 3 or 4 times that we tried to make an entrance into the farm and ranch channel during my tenure there.

    斯科特,感謝您參加電話會議。我很感謝你提出這個問題。退一步來說,我想說農場和牧場通路一直是人們關注的管道,也是人們希望投資美國農村的管道。回想起來,正如你們所知,我曾在一家大型家居裝飾店工作過,我還記得在那裡任職期間,我們曾三四次嘗試進入農場和牧場渠道。

  • I think about in my tenure here at Tractor Supply, there's been more than a handful of companies that have announced entries into farm and ranch as well. What I'd say is that we compete against thousands of locations and hundreds and hundreds of companies each and every single day.

    我想到,在我任職 Tractor Supply 期間,已經有不少公司宣布進軍農場和牧場領域。我想說的是,我們每天都要與數千個地點、數百家公司競爭。

  • We've got a track record of being pretty successful in our market while doing that. Our focus is really always around just serving our customers in the best way we can. And that's really around our legendary service, having all the products they need in a very convenient format and making sure we leverage our scale to price it as the best value in the market that you can get out there.

    我們在這樣做的同時,也在我們的市場上取得了相當成功的記錄。我們的重點始終是以最好的方式為客戶服務。這確實與我們的傳奇服務有關,以非常方便的形式提供他們需要的所有產品,並確保我們利用我們的規模將其定價為市場上可以買到的最佳價值。

  • And I think we are just such an integral element of rural retail. We don't take that for granted. We know that's a responsibility we have to embrace every single day, but I think it's a pretty good position to be in. And we're very confident in our ability to leverage that as we grow and put our initiatives on top of it moving forward. Thanks so much for the question.

    我認為我們是農村零售業不可或缺的一部分。我們並不認為這是理所當然的。我們知道這是我們每天都必須承擔的責任,但我認為這是一個相當不錯的職位。我們非常有信心,隨著我們的成長,我們能夠利用這一點,並在未來的基礎上繼續推進我們的計劃。非常感謝您的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session of the call. I'll now pass it back to Mary Winn for closing remarks.

    謝謝。本次電話會議的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言交還給瑪麗·溫恩,請她作最後發言。

  • Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

    Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining our call. We'll look forward to talking to you at our Q3 call in October. We're around this afternoon and -- for any follow-up as needed. So thank you again for your time and attention today.

    感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。我們期待在十月的第三季電話會議上與您交談。我們今天下午會在附近,並根據需要進行任何後續行動。再次感謝您今天的時間和關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。