Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss third-quarter 2025 results. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that reproduction of this call, in whole or in part, is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.

    女士們、先生們,早安,歡迎參加 Tractor Supply Company 的電話會議,我們將討論 2025 年第三季業績。(操作員說明)請注意,未經 Tractor Supply Company 書面授權,不得全部或部分複製此通話內容。再次提醒,本次通話正在錄音。

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.

    現在我謹向大家介紹今天電話會議的主持人,Tractor Supply Company 的投資者和公共關係高級副總裁 Mary Winn Pilkington。瑪麗·溫恩,請繼續。

  • Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

    Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

  • Thank you, Alyssa. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your time and participation in today's call.

    謝謝你,艾莉莎。各位早安。感謝您抽空參加今天的電話會議。

  • On the call today, participating in our prepared remarks are Hal Lawton, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kurt Barton, our CFO. We will also have Seth Estep, Rob Mills, John Ordus, and Colin Yankee join the call for the question-and-answer portion. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the floor for questions. Please note that a supplemental slide presentation has been made available on our website to accompany today's earnings release.

    今天參加電話會議並發表準備好的演講的有:我們的執行長 Hal Lawton;以及我們的財務長 Kurt Barton。我們還將邀請 Seth Estep、Rob Mills、John Ordus 和 Colin Yankee 加入問答環節。在我們發言完畢後,我們將開放提問環節。請注意,我們網站上已提供補充幻燈片演示文稿,以配合今天的收益發布。

  • Now, let me reference the Safe Harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control.

    現在,讓我引用一下 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中的安全港條款。本次電話會議可能包含某些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到重大風險和不確定性的影響,包括公司未來的營運和財務表現。在許多情況下,這些風險和不確定性是我們無法控制的。

  • Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations. Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    儘管該公司認為其前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的,但無法保證這些預期或任何前瞻性聲明將被證明是正確的,實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中反映的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素已列入今天發布的新聞稿末尾以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

  • The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time. Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed in this call.

    本次通話所包含的資訊僅在通話當天有效。投資者不應假定這些聲明在未來仍然有效。Tractor Supply公司不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的任何資訊的義務。

  • As we move into the Q&A session, please limit yourself to one question to ensure everyone has the opportunity to participate. If you have additional questions, please feel free to rejoin the queue. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation. We will also be available after the call for any further discussions. Thank you for your time and attention this morning.

    進入問答環節,請每人限提一個問題,以確保每個人都有機會參與。如果您還有其他問題,請隨時重新排隊。感謝您的理解與合作。通話結束後,我們仍將隨時接受任何進一步的討論。感謝您今天上午抽出時間關注。

  • And now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Hal Lawton.

    現在,我很高興將電話交給哈爾·勞頓。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Mary Winn. And good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

    謝謝你,瑪麗溫恩。各位早安,感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。

  • Before getting into our results, I want to thank our more than 52,000 Tractor Supply team members. Their commitment, hard work, and passion for Life Out Here continue to set us apart. By delivering legendary service, they build the trust and loyalty that defined our brand, and their dedication to our lifestyle remains the foundation of our leadership in rural retail.

    在公佈我們的結果之前,我要感謝我們超過 52,000 名 Tractor Supply 團隊成員。他們對戶外生活的投入、努力和熱情使我們始終與眾不同。他們以卓越的服務贏得了客戶的信任和忠誠,這正是我們品牌的基石;他們對我們生活方式的奉獻精神,也成為了我們在鄉村零售業保持領先地位的基礎。

  • The Tractor Supply team delivered a strong third quarter in line with our expectations, driven by ongoing share gains in our consumable, usable, and edible businesses; agile execution through an extended summer season; and healthy transaction growth that was supported by our consistent focus on value and service. Our view is that our third-quarter results largely mirrored the broader US consumer environment augmented by some share gain.

    Tractor Supply 團隊第三季業績強勁,符合預期,這得益於我們在消費品、日用品和食品業務中持續的市場份額增長;在延長的夏季銷售旺季中靈活高效地執行策略;以及在我們對價值和服務的持續關注下,交易量實現了健康增長。我們認為,第三季的業績在很大程度上反映了美國整體消費環境,並在此基礎上獲得了一定的市佔率成長。

  • We saw a strong start to the quarter with spending trends moderating into September. This pattern aligned with what we observed across the retail landscape and, in our case, was amplified by two key dynamics: first, the tailwind of an extended spring in July; and second, the headwind of an unseasonably warm weather in September and the absence of emergency response.

    本季開局強勁,但9月消費趨勢放緩。這一模式與我們在整個零售業觀察到的趨勢一致,而且,就我們而言,這一趨勢還受到兩個關鍵因素的放大:首先,7 月份春季延長帶來的順風;其次,9 月份異常溫暖的天氣帶來的逆風以及缺乏應急響應。

  • So let's start with a few top-line sales highlights from the quarter. First off, we grew net sales 7.2% to a third-quarter record of $3.72 billion. Comparable store sales increased 3.9%, driven by a balance of transaction growth of 2.7% and average ticket growth of 1.2%. And importantly, we had positive comps in all three months, positive comps in 11 weeks, a flat comp in one, and negative comps in only one week.

    那麼,讓我們先來看看本季的一些主要銷售亮點。首先,我們的淨銷售額成長了 7.2%,第三季創下 37.2 億美元的紀錄。同店銷售額成長 3.9%,其中交易量成長 2.7%,平均客單價成長 1.2%。更重要的是,我們三個月內所有月份的同店銷售額都為正,11 週的同店銷售額為正,一周的同店銷售額持平,只有一周的同店銷售額為負。

  • We are particularly pleased to extend our track record of comp transaction growth, a hallmark of Tractor Supply and a strong signal of the health and engagement of our customer base. Our customers remain loyal and connected to their lifestyle, continuing to shop with us across categories and channels. And so let's turn to some customer engagement metrics, which remained a clear strength in the quarter.

    我們尤其高興的是,我們延續了同店交易成長的良好記錄,這是 Tractor Supply 的標誌性特徵,也是我們客戶群健康狀況和參與度的強大訊號。我們的顧客保持忠誠,並與他們的生活方式緊密相連,繼續在各個品類和管道與我們購物。因此,讓我們來看看一些客戶參與度指標,這仍然是本季的一大優勢。

  • First, customer satisfaction remains strong, with scores continuing their positive trajectory, marking a record 17 quarters of consecutive improvement. Additionally, we achieved record Q3 highs across some key customer metrics, including total customer count, Neighbor's Club membership, reactivated customers, and retention rates. Neighbor's Club continues to be a powerful differentiator and represents over 80% of our sales. We saw gains in member retention and spend per member, and our Hometown Heroes program continues to attract new customers.

    首先,客戶滿意度依然強勁,評分持續走高,創下連續 17 個季度提升的紀錄。此外,我們在第三季的一些關鍵客戶指標方面也取得了創紀錄的高分,包括客戶總數、鄰裡俱樂部會員人數、重新啟動的客戶數量和客戶留存率。鄰裡俱樂部仍然是我們強大的差異化優勢,占我們銷售額的 80% 以上。我們看到會員留存率和每位會員的消費額都有所提高,而且我們的「家鄉英雄」計畫也持續吸引新客戶。

  • We're also making progress in how we serve customers using data. With the implementation of our new customer data platform last year, our team is now able to better personalize offers and messaging, helping us deliver more relevant and engaging experiences across channels.

    我們在利用數據服務客戶方面也取得了進展。去年我們實施了新的客戶數據平台,現在我們的團隊能夠更好地個人化優惠和資訊傳遞,幫助我們在各個管道提供更相關、更具吸引力的體驗。

  • Now, let's shift to category performance in the third quarter. In line with recent quarters, the consumer remained discerning in their spending with categories that offer newness, strong value, and needs-based continuing to outperform. Our comp sales growth was driven by strong seasonal performance in spring and summer products, along with continued momentum in our core year-round CUE categories.

    現在,讓我們來看看第三季的品類表現。與最近幾季的情況一致,消費者在支出方面依然保持謹慎,那些提供新穎性、高性價比和滿足需求的品類繼續表現優異。我們的同店銷售額成長得益於春夏產品的強勁季節性表現,以及我們核心全年 CUE 類別的持續成長動能。

  • As we move from the second quarter into the third, seasonal categories strengthened meaningfully. After a more modest first half, we benefited from the bathtub effect of the extended summer season. We believe this was about a 50- to 60-basis-point contribution to the third quarter that would have historically been in the first half.

    從第二季度進入第三季度,季節性類別顯著增強。上半年表現較為平淡,但之後由於夏季延長,我們受益於夏季帶來的「浴缸效應」。我們認為,這相當於第三季貢獻了 50 到 60 個基點,而這在歷史上本應是上半年的。

  • As it relates to seasonal, the team did a great job capitalizing on the elongated summer season. Whether through strategically positioned inventory, enhanced financing offers, or targeted labor investments, across the company, our merchants, to our store teams, to our supply chain, the organization leaned in to capture every single sales opportunity. And a great example of that execution was in our tractors and riders category, which delivered another strong quarter. Our industry-leading lineup of zero-turn mowers, combined with the disciplined inventory management and effective merchandising, continued to resonate with customers and drove share gains in this category in the quarter.

    就季節性因素而言,團隊充分利用了漫長的夏季旺季,做得非常出色。無論是透過策略性地佈置庫存、提供更優惠的融資方案,或是進行有針對性的勞動力投資,從公司內部的商家、門市團隊到供應鏈,整個組織都全力以赴,抓住每一個銷售機會。而我們拖拉機和騎乘式車輛類別就是一個很好的例子,該類別又取得了強勁的季度業績。我們行業領先的零轉彎割草機產品線,加上嚴格的庫存管理和有效的銷售策略,繼續引起客戶的共鳴,並在本季度推動了該類別市場份額的成長。

  • Additionally, other categories in seasonal that saw standout results were lawn and garden, sprayers and chemicals, and power equipment parts and accessories. In our hallmark area of CUE, we saw stronger than average growth in livestock, equine, poultry feeding supplies, and wildlife supplies. And in wildlife supplies, we continue to expand our position as a destination for outdoor enthusiasts across gun safes, deer corn, feeders, hunting blinds, attractants, trail cameras, and more.

    此外,其他季節性商品類別中表現突出的還有草坪和花園用品、噴霧器和化學品以及動力設備零件和配件。在我們標誌性的 CUE 領域,牲畜、馬匹、家禽飼料用品和野生動物用品的成長都高於平均水準。在野生動物用品方面,我們不斷擴大自身地位,成為戶外愛好者的首選目的地,產品涵蓋槍枝保險箱、鹿糧、餵食器、狩獵掩體、誘餌、追蹤相機等等。

  • Our customers are responding to the depth of the inventory and the newness that we're bringing into the category, including the launch of the Field & Stream brand. We now have nearly 50 SKUs in this brand available in-store and online with a robust pipeline and development. And this launch strengthens our position as the destination for the Out Here lifestyle.

    我們的客戶對我們豐富的庫存和我們為該類別帶來的新事物(包括 Field & Stream 品牌的推出)做出了積極回應。目前,該品牌已有近 50 個 SKU 在實體店和線上銷售,並擁有強大的產品線和開發能力。此次發布進一步鞏固了我們作為戶外生活方式目的地的地位。

  • In discretionary and weather-dependent categories, particularly those in the fall season, such as recreational vehicles, grilling, safes, and generators, sales continue to lag, reflecting both the cautious big-ticket consumer and the absence of storm-related activity this year. As it relates to big-ticket, overall, the strength in tractors and riders offset the softness I just mentioned in discretionary and emergency response categories, resulting in essentially a flat comp performance for the quarter.

    在非必需品和受天氣影響的類別中,尤其是在秋季,如休閒車、燒烤用具、保險箱和發電機等商品的銷售持續低迷,這既反映了消費者對大宗商品的謹慎態度,也反映了今年缺乏與風暴相關的活動。就大宗商品而言,總體而言,拖拉機和騎乘車輛的強勁表現抵消了我剛才提到的非必需品和緊急響應類別的疲軟,導致本季度基本保持平穩的業績。

  • And finally, in companion animal, trends remain stable but below company averages. The consumables business remains flattish, with seasonal strength in animal health, and we have seen some sequential improvement in pet supplies and equipment as well.

    最後,在伴侶動物領域,趨勢保持穩定,但低於公司平均值。消耗品業務依然平淡,動物保健品業務呈現季節性強勁成長,寵物用品和設備業務也出現了一些較上季改善。

  • We also continue to execute well across our strategic initiatives and operational priorities. Digital sales grew at a low-double-digit rate, representing a notable sequential improvement from the second quarter. Nearly 80% of online orders were fulfilled by our stores, highlighting the strength of our local network and store base. Same-day delivery and deliver from store outperformed, reinforcing the convenience and reliability of our model and the value of the final-mile capabilities that we're building out.

    我們在各項策略措施和營運重點方面也持續保持良好的執行力。數位銷售額實現了兩位數的低成長率,較第二季有了顯著的環比改善。近 80% 的線上訂單由我們的門市完成,這凸顯了我們本地網路和門市基礎的強大。當日送達和門市自提服務表現優異,進一步證明了我們模式的便利性和可靠性,以及我們正在建造的最後一公里配送能力的價值。

  • Petsense by Tractor Supply marked its 20th anniversary, and congratulations to that team. And it highlights the differentiated pet specialty model out in rural America. Our distribution centers delivered another strong quarter of productivity gains, supported by disciplined execution and efficient inventory flow across the network. This execution helped ensure we remained in stock on the product our customers count on, particularly with the extended seasonal demand.

    Petsense by Tractor Supply 迎來了成立 20 週年,祝賀團隊。這也突顯了美國農村地區差異化的寵物專賣模式。在嚴格的執行和高效的庫存流動支援下,我們的配送中心又實現了一個季度生產力的強勁成長。這項措施有助於確保我們能夠持續供應客戶信賴的產品,尤其是在季節性需求延長的情況下。

  • Turning to pet pharmacy, we continue to see steady growth in orders and customer adoption. Each week, we're seeing an increase in Neighbor's Club subscriptions of prescription and over-the-counter products, leveraging our Allivet acquisition. Our customers continue to engage with our suite of pet services, which also includes pet washes and vet clinics.

    寵物藥局方面,我們看到訂單量和顧客接受度持續穩定成長。每週,我們都能看到 Neighbor's Club 的處方藥和非處方藥訂閱量增加,這得益於我們收購 Allivet 後所取得的成果。我們的客戶繼續使用我們的一系列寵物服務,其中包括寵物洗澡和獸醫診所。

  • On the real estate front, we remain disciplined and confident in our growth strategy. We opened 29 new Tractor Supply stores in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to 68. New store productivity continues to perform very well. Our pipeline of 2026 and into 2027 remains robust, with significant runway for low-risk, value-creating, organic growth ahead.

    在房地產方面,我們依然保持嚴謹的態度,並對我們的成長策略充滿信心。本季我們新開了 29 家 Tractor Supply 商店,使我們今年迄今的商店總數達到 68 家。新店開張效率持續表現優異。我們2026年及2027年的發展規劃依然穩健,未來將有充足的低風險、創造價值的有機成長空間。

  • We also continue to invest in our existing store fleet. We now have 55% of our chain in the Project Fusion layout and nearly 700 garden centers. These are capital investments that provide a multi-year runway for growth and extend the terminal value of our stores. They help us be more relevant to both our core customers and our new customers, allowing us to garner a greater share of their spending and be the dependable supplier for their lifestyle.

    我們也會繼續投資於我們現有的門市網路。目前我們旗下 55% 的連鎖店和近 700 家花園中心都採用了 Project Fusion 佈局。這些資本投資將為多年的成長提供動力,並延長我們門市的最終價值。它們幫助我們更好地服務核心客戶和新客戶,從而贏得他們更大的消費份額,成為他們生活方式中值得信賴的供應商。

  • Finally, we're making solid progress on advancing our Life Out Here strategic initiatives with a focus on direct sales and final mile. These initiatives strengthen our foundation for long-term growth and relevancy to our customers.

    最後,我們在推動「戶外生活」策略計畫方面取得了實質進展,重點是直銷和最後一公里配送。這些措施鞏固了我們長期發展和滿足客戶需求的基礎。

  • To summarize, the third quarter demonstrated the strength and consistency of our model, healthy customer engagement, strong execution, and continued progress on our Life Out Here strategy. As we look ahead, we believe it is appropriate and timely to narrow our fiscal 2025 guidance. This guidance reflects our year-to-date performance and outlook for the remainder of the year. We remain excited about our strategy and our ability to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

    總而言之,第三季度展現了我們模式的實力和穩定性、健康的客戶參與度、強有力的執行力,以及我們在「戶外生活」策略方面取得的持續進展。展望未來,我們認為現在是時候縮小 2025 財年的業績預期了。該指引反映了我們今年迄今為止的業績以及對今年剩餘時間的展望。我們對我們的策略以及為股東創造長期價值的能力仍然充滿信心。

  • And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kurt to provide more detail on our performance and outlook.

    接下來,我將把電話交給庫爾特,讓他詳細介紹我們的業績和前景。

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Thank you, Hal, and good morning to everyone on the call.

    謝謝你,哈爾,也祝所有參加電話會議的朋友們早安。

  • As Hal highlighted, our third quarter top-line performance aligned with our expectation. Each period of the quarter delivered positive results, supported by consistent transaction growth throughout. Sustained growth in transactions remains a hallmark of Tractor Supply and a key indicator of the health of our business model.

    正如哈爾所強調的,我們第三季的營收表現符合預期。本季每個階段都取得了正面的業績,這得益於交易量的持續成長。交易量的持續成長一直是 Tractor Supply 的標誌,也是衡量我們商業模式健康的關鍵指標。

  • In addition, all geographic regions across the chain delivered positive comparable sales for the quarter. These results underscore the broad-based nature of our performance and the consistency we're seeing in the business. This was especially evident in the performance of our CUE categories, which outperformed the chain average and had mid-single-digit comparable sales growth every month of the quarter. While the early part of the quarter benefited from the extended spring selling season, the later portion was pressured by lingering summer heat and dry conditions with no meaningful shift to fall weather.

    此外,該連鎖店所有地區的同店銷售額在本季度均實現了正增長。這些結果凸顯了我們業績的廣泛性和我們在業務中看到的穩定性。這一點在我們的 CUE 類別中表現得尤為明顯,其表現優於連鎖店平均水平,本季度每個月的同店銷售額都實現了中等個位數的增長。雖然本季前半段受益於春季銷售旺季的延長,但後半段卻受到持續的夏季高溫和乾燥天氣的影響,而且秋季天氣沒有明顯好轉。

  • As far as emergency response sales, while we did not receive a significant year-over-year sales lift from emergency response last year, we did have a hurricane event in 2024 that provided some benefit to sales. This year, we had no emergency weather-related activity, which represented a modest headwind to our third-quarter comparisons.

    就緊急應變銷售而言,雖然去年緊急應變業務的銷售額沒有明顯的同比增長,但 2024 年的颶風事件確實為銷售帶來了一些好處。今年我們沒有發生任何與天氣相關的緊急事件,這對我們第三季的業績比較造成了一定的不利影響。

  • Let me add a few additional comments on our comp sales to complement Hal's remarks. The transition from price deflation to modest inflation year over year was consistent with our expectations for the quarter. Average ticket increased 1.2%, driven principally by higher average unit retail. This was primarily the result of a higher but stable commodity cost environment and, to a lesser extent, selective price adjustments as higher product costs flowed through our supply chain.

    為了補充 Hal 的發言,我想就我們的同店銷售情況補充幾點看法。價格從通縮轉為年比溫和通膨,這與我們對本季的預期一致。平均客單價上漲 1.2%,主因是平均單價上漲。這主要是由於大宗商品成本環境較高但穩定,其次是由於隨著產品成本上升而透過我們的供應鏈進行的選擇性價格調整。

  • Moving down our income statement, our gross margin increased 15 basis points to 37.4%, in line with our expectations. This performance reflects the continued discipline of our merchant team in managing product costs and consistent execution of our everyday low-price strategy. These benefits more than offset the anticipated pressure from tariff costs and higher transportation costs, as we lapped last year's benefit from the opening of a new distribution center, along with the modest cost increase to support our strategic investment and final-mile delivery.

    從損益表來看,我們的毛利率成長了 15 個基點,達到 37.4%,符合我們的預期。這項業績反映了我們採購團隊在產品成本控制方面持續的嚴謹作風,以及我們日常低價策略的貫徹執行。這些收益足以抵銷關稅成本和運輸成本上漲帶來的預期壓力,因為我們已經享受了去年開設新配送中心帶來的收益,以及為支持我們的策略投資和最後一公里配送而略微增加的成本。

  • We remain very pleased with our ability to expand gross margin in this environment, which speaks to the strength of our cost management initiatives. Selling, general administrative expenses, including depreciation and amortization, were $1.05 billion, up 8.4% from last year. As a percent of net sales, SG&A deleveraged 29 basis points to 28.1%. This outcome was in line with our expectations and reflects a few puts and takes.

    在這種環境下,我們仍然對能夠擴大毛利率感到非常滿意,這反映了我們成本管理措施的有效性。銷售、一般管理費用(包括折舊和攤提)為 10.5 億美元,比去年增加 8.4%。銷售、一般及行政費用佔淨銷售額的百分比下降了 29 個基點,至 28.1%。這個結果符合我們的預期,也反映了一些買賣交易。

  • There were primarily three drivers of the deleverage: first, the planned strategic investments in our business to launch initiatives such as direct sales; second, higher incentive compensation from stronger performance, primarily at the store level, and the lap from last year's lower accruals; and then third, a lower benefit year over year from our sale-leaseback strategy. These factors were partially offset by ongoing productivity initiatives and leverage and fixed costs from the stronger sales performance. Importantly, within gross margin and SG&A, we view our investment spending as critical to supporting our strategic priorities and long-term growth, while continuing to balance expense discipline with the opportunities ahead.

    去槓桿化主要有三個驅動因素:首先,我們計劃對業務進行策略性投資,以推出直銷等舉措;其次,業績提升帶來的更高激勵性薪酬,主要來自門市層面,以及去年較低的應計款項;第三,我們的售後回租策略帶來的收益逐年下降。這些因素部分被持續的生產力提升措施以及銷售績效增強所帶來的槓桿效應和固定成本所抵銷。重要的是,在毛利率和銷售、管理及行政費用方面,我們認為投資支出對於支持我們的策略重點和長期成長至關重要,同時我們將繼續在控製成本和把握未來機會之間取得平衡。

  • Our effective tax rate decreased to 21.0% from 22.3% in the third quarter last year, largely due to the timing of planned tax strategies for the purchase of federal tax credits, which we expect to normalize over the full year. On a year-to-date basis, our effective tax rate is 22.3%, just 10 basis points higher than last year's rate.

    由於購買聯邦稅收抵免的計劃稅務策略的時間安排,我們的實際稅率從去年第三季的 22.3% 降至 21.0%,我們預計這種情況將在全年內恢復正常。今年迄今為止,我們的實際稅率為 22.3%,僅比去年同期高出 10 個基點。

  • Diluted earnings per share was $0.49, up from $0.45 in the prior year. Our inventory position remains in excellent shape. Our average store inventory is up a modest 3.4%, reflecting healthy sell-through and strong inventory management by the team. Year to date, we've returned more than $600 million of capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

    稀釋後每股收益為 0.49 美元,高於去年的 0.45 美元。我們的庫存狀況依然非常良好。我們的平均門市庫存略微增加了 3.4%,這反映出良好的銷售情況和團隊強大的庫存管理能力。今年迄今為止,我們已透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過 6 億美元的資本。

  • As we look ahead, we're focused on finishing the year with the same discipline and agility that have guided our results year to date. The fourth quarter carries typical seasonal variability, but we're confident in our ability to respond quickly to changing conditions and deliver within our outlook range.

    展望未來,我們將專注於以同樣的自律和敏捷性完成今年的工作,而正是這種自律和敏捷性引領我們取得了今年迄今為止的成績。第四季存在典型的季節性波動,但我們有信心能夠迅速應對不斷變化的情況,並在預期範圍內實現目標。

  • For the fourth quarter, we anticipate comparable store sales growth in the range of 1% to 5%, reflecting a wider set of possible outcomes given the current consumer environment. And keep in mind, winter weather is often the primary driver of our fourth-quarter business, more so than the holidays and the related gift buying. As a result of this outlook, we are narrowing our fiscal 2025 guidance range. We now expect net sales growth of 4.6% to 5.6%, comparable store sales growth of 1.4% to 2.4%, operating margin between 9.5% and 9.7%, and diluted EPS in the range of $2.06 to $2.13.

    鑑於目前的消費環境,我們預計第四季度同店銷售額成長幅度在 1% 到 5% 之間,這反映了更廣泛的可能結果。請記住,冬季天氣通常是我們第四季度業務的主要驅動因素,其影響甚至超過了假日和相關的禮品購買。有鑑於此,我們將縮小 2025 財年的業績預期範圍。我們現在預期淨銷售額將成長 4.6% 至 5.6%,同店銷售額成長 1.4% 至 2.4%,營業利潤率在 9.5% 至 9.7% 之間,稀釋後每股收益在 2.06 美元至 2.13 美元之間。

  • Shifting further out, while we are not giving formal guidance for 2026, and with a caveat that we are still in the planning process and the macro environment can change rapidly, I thought it would be helpful to make a few comments about how we are thinking about next year. As we look to 2026, we expect to open 100 new stores compared to 90 this year. This increase reflects our continued confidence in the strength of our new store economics and the long-term growth potential of our model. We anticipate a consistent pace of openings throughout the year.

    展望更遠的未來,雖然我們沒有對 2026 年做出正式指導,考慮到我們仍在規劃過程中,宏觀環境可能會迅速變化,但我認為就我們明年的計劃做一些說明會很有幫助。展望 2026 年,我們預計將開設 100 家新店,而今年為 90 家。這一成長反映了我們對新店經濟效益和我們模式的長期成長潛力的持續信心。我們預計全年將保持穩定的開幕速度。

  • For 2026, we are optimistic about maintaining the step-up in comps that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. We expect transactions to remain a strength, with average tickets staying positive and the early benefits of our strategic investments contributing to that momentum. This level of comp sales growth should also support progress in our operating margin rate.

    對於 2026 年,我們樂觀地認為能夠維持我們預測的今年下半年同業比較數據的成長動能。我們預期交易量將持續保持強勁勢頭,平均交易額將維持正成長,而我們策略投資的早期收益也將推動這一成長動能。這種程度的同店銷售成長也應該有助於提高我們的營業利益率。

  • To that end, we would anticipate fiscal 2026 to be a more normalized year as it relates to our investment levels and the corresponding pressure on operating margin. This normalization provides the foundation for improved profitability. Based on our model, we see an inflection point in operating margin expected around the low 2% comp sales range, with margin rate expanding proportionally as comp sales growth increases beyond that level.

    為此,我們預計 2026 財年將更加正常化,因為我們的投資水準和相應的營業利潤率壓力也會減輕。這種規範化為提高獲利能力奠定了基礎。根據我們的模型,我們預計營業利潤率將在同店銷售額佔 2% 左右出現拐點,隨著同店銷售額增長超過該水平,利潤率將按比例擴大。

  • Stepping back, with our peak capital investment cycle as a percent of sales now behind us, we believe 2026 will reflect continued P&L normalization. This progress positions us to deliver solid sales growth, with margin improvement opportunity in line with our comp sales performance. We look forward to sharing our official guidance for 2026 during our Q4 call in January.

    回顧過去,隨著資本投資週期佔銷售額比例的峰值週期過去,我們認為 2026 年將反映出損益表的持續正常化。這項進展使我們能夠實現穩健的銷售成長,並有機會在與同店銷售業績相符的基礎上提高利潤率。我們期待在1月的第四季財報電話會議上分享我們對2026年的正式業績指引。

  • In closing, we remain focused on disciplined execution and the factors within our control. Our Life Out Here strategy continues to position Tractor Supply well to navigate the current environment, maintain our industry leadership position, and deliver sustainable value over time.

    最後,我們將繼續專注於嚴謹的執行和我們可控制的因素。我們的「戶外生活」策略將繼續使 Tractor Supply 能夠更好地應對當前環境,保持行業領先地位,並隨著時間的推移提供可持續的價值。

  • Now, I'll turn the call over to Hal to wrap up.

    現在,我將把電話交給哈爾來做最後的總結。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Kurt.

    謝謝你,庫爾特。

  • As we look at the remainder of the year and into 2026, we're focused on finishing strong and building momentum on our investments in the next phase of our Life Out Here strategy. For the balance of the year, our priority remains on being a dependable supplier, delivering compelling value, and providing more meaningful in-store and online experiences.

    展望今年剩餘時間以及 2026 年,我們將專注於強勁收官,並在「戶外生活」策略的下一階段投資中保持發展勢頭。在今年剩餘的時間裡,我們的首要任務仍然是成為值得信賴的供應商,提供極具吸引力的價值,並提供更有意義的店內和線上體驗。

  • Let me share some of the key in-store and merchandising activities that we have planned. We remain excited about the continued momentum of our Hometown Heroes program, which is part of our Neighbor's Club benefits for military service members, veterans, and first responders. This year, in the weeks leading up to Veterans Day, we'll be executing our Hometown Heroes Days.

    讓我來分享一下我們計劃開展的一些重要的店內和商品陳列活動。我們對「家鄉英雄」計劃的持續發展勢頭感到興奮,該計劃是我們為軍人、退伍軍人和急救人員提供的「鄰裡俱樂部」福利的一部分。今年,在退伍軍人節前的幾週,我們將舉辦「家鄉英雄日」活動。

  • A highlight of the event is our self-proclaimed National Hometown Heroes Day on Saturday, November 1. This day comes to life at our stores as a unique opportunity to connect with our communities in very special ways, from Touch-a-Truck events to Americana-themed crafts for kids to thank-you notes to our Hometown Heroes and an Honor Wall. These types of events create a lot of energy and excitement in our stores. And if you get a chance, it's a great day to be in them.

    本次活動的亮點是我們自封的“全國家鄉英雄日”,定於11月1日星期六舉行。在我們的門市裡,這一天成為了與社區建立聯繫的獨特機會,我們以非常特別的方式開展各種活動,包括「觸摸卡車」活動、美國主題兒童手工藝品製作、向我們家鄉的英雄們致謝以及設立榮譽牆。這類活動能為我們的店家帶來很多活力和興奮。如果你有機會,那將是參與其中的絕佳時機。

  • The winter and holiday season always creates a sense of fun and excitement across our business, as our teams showcase the best of Tractor Supply for our customers and communities. Customers truly rely on us for their winter essentials like wood pellets, propane heaters, fireplaces, insulated jackets, gloves, boots, and more. In the fourth quarter, we're leaning into that responsibility with depth of inventory, the right price, and fresh and trusted brands that reinforce our relevance.

    每逢冬季和假日,我們公司都會充滿歡樂和興奮的氣氛,因為我們的團隊會向我們的客戶和社區展示 Tractor Supply 最好的產品和服務。顧客們非常依賴我們來購買冬季必需品,例如木屑顆粒、丙烷加熱器、壁爐、保暖夾克、手套、靴子等等。第四季度,我們將透過充足的庫存、合適的價格以及新鮮可靠的品牌來履行這項責任,從而鞏固我們的市場地位。

  • While holiday gets the spotlight, it's winter readiness that drives the heart of our business and where we consistently show up for our customers when they need us most. And once again, our now-famous 6-foot Holiday Rooster is capturing customer attention and social buzz, a great example of the fun and discovery in retail theater that define the Tractor Supply experience in the holiday season.

    雖然假日是人們關注的焦點,但冬季準備工作才是我們業務的核心,也是我們在客戶最需要我們的時候始終如一地為他們提供服務的領域。而我們如今聞名遐邇的 6 英尺高的節日公雞再次吸引了顧客的注意和社交媒體的熱議,這正是 Tractor Supply 在假日季零售體驗中樂趣和發現的絕佳例證。

  • Additionally, in recreational products, exclusive minibikes and gun safes position us as a destination for unique gifts at a great price. And this year's Tool Shop event brings outstanding value to our customers with leading brands and exclusive TSC offerings in power tools, accessories, and storage. This event highlights us as a gifting destination for the homesteader lifestyle.

    此外,在休閒產品方面,我們提供的獨家迷你摩托車和槍支保險箱使我們成為以優惠價格購買獨特禮品的理想之選。今年的工具商店活動將為我們的客戶帶來卓越的價值,提供領先品牌和 TSC 獨家銷售的電動工具、配件和儲存用品。這次活動凸顯了我們作為田園生活方式禮品目的地的地位。

  • Our holiday sets always bring energy and excitement to our stores, but as I said, what truly drives our business in the fourth quarter is the weather. And when winter weather arrives, our customers know they can depend on Tractor Supply.

    我們的節日系列產品總是能為我們的商店帶來活力和興奮,但正如我所說,真正推動我們第四季度業務發展的是天氣。當冬季來臨,我們的客戶知道他們可以信賴 Tractor Supply。

  • In addition to strong merchandising and store execution in the fourth quarter, our teams remain focused on setting up the Life Out Here 2030 initiatives for success as we head into 2026. From localization and direct sales to Pet & Animal Rx to final mile, exclusive, and private brands and retail media, the team is fully engaged in executing detailed roadmaps that will drive growth and long-term value creation.

    除了第四季度強勁的商品銷售和門市執行外,我們的團隊將繼續專注於為「Life Out Here 2030」計畫的成功實施做好準備,迎接 2026 年的到來。從在地化和直銷到寵物和動物處方藥,再到最後一公里、獨家和自有品牌以及零售媒體,團隊正全力以赴地執行詳細的路線圖,以推動成長和長期價值創造。

  • To close, we operate in a large, attractive market that rewards consistency, connection, and authenticity to a lifestyle. Our investments in our new store base, in our existing stores, in our technology, in our supply chain, and in our talent are strengthening our competitive advantage and enabling us to consistently gain share. Combined with strong new store returns, ongoing rural migration, and disciplined expense management, we believe we are well positioned to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

    最後,我們身處在一個龐大且極具吸引力的市場,這個市場獎勵生活方式的一致性、連結性和真實性。我們在新店建設、現有門市營運、技術研發、供應鏈管理和人才培育方面的投資,正在增強我們的競爭優勢,使我們能夠持續擴大市場份額。憑藉強勁的新店收益、持續的農村人口遷移以及嚴格的費用管理,我們相信我們有能力為股東創造長期價值。

  • With that, let's open up the call for questions.

    接下來,我們開始接受提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Steven Forbes, Guggenheim.

    (操作說明)史蒂文·福布斯,古根漢。

  • Steven Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Forbes - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Hal, curious if you can give us an update specifically around the direct sales rep buildout. And maybe how many do you plan to have in place by year-end? What will the final mileage coverage be on a percentage of the store base?

    各位早安。Hal,能否請您具體介紹一下直銷代表團隊的建立進度?那麼,到年底你們計劃完成多少項呢?最終里程覆蓋率將佔門市基數的百分比是多少?

  • And then lastly, just like how should we be thinking about the benefit of the incremental sales potentially offsetting the initial startup cost associated with the initiative next year? It sort of sounds like you're implying that there's a potential sort of net benefit to margin next year as this program ramps and you start getting the benefit of sales flow through.

    最後,我們應該如何考慮明年增量銷售帶來的好處,以抵銷該計劃的初始​​啟動成本?聽起來你好像在暗示,隨著這個專案逐步推進,明年利潤率可能會有所提升,銷售額也會開始成長。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Steven, and thanks for joining us on the call. Thanks for the question about direct sales. I'll give a couple high-level comments and then turn it over to John to provide further detail.

    早安,史蒂文,感謝你參加我們的電話會議。感謝您提出關於直銷的問題。我先給一些概括性的意見,然後把細節交給約翰來補充。

  • But at the highest level, what I'd say is we remain incredibly bullish and confident in our direct sales initiative. It's off to an excellent start right on top of the expectations that we set at the beginning of the year in terms of rollout, sales rep ramping, the sales attributed to that ramping, et cetera.

    但從最高層面來說,我想說的是,我們仍然對我們的直銷計劃充滿信心和樂觀。就推廣、銷售代表的招募、由此帶來的銷售等而言,一切都取得了非常好的開端,完全超出了我們年初設定的預期。

  • As we've been clear this year, there was some expense investment that we've made in that business to get it launched and ramped. That's embedded in the guidance that we've been giving throughout the year. As it relates to next year, we are looking for the initiative to self-fund itself. So there would be no further incremental investment into the initiative as it's ramping now and starting to self-fund itself.

    正如我們今年一直明確表示的那樣,我們已經對這項業務進行了一些支出投資,以啟動和擴大業務規模。這一點已融入我們全年提供的指導方針中。至於明年,我們希望這項計畫能夠實現自籌資金。因此,隨著該計劃逐步推進並開始自籌資金,不會再追加投資。

  • I'll turn it over to John to give some of the highlights on the number of reps we've hired recently and over the last nine months, how they're doing on sales, and what our outlook for next year is.

    接下來我將把發言權交給約翰,讓他重點介紹我們最近和過去九個月招聘的銷售代表人數、他們的銷售業績以及我們對明年的展望。

  • John Ordus - Executive Vice President, Chief Stores Officer

    John Ordus - Executive Vice President, Chief Stores Officer

  • Yeah, thanks. Hey, Steven. Good morning.

    嗯,謝謝。嘿,史蒂文。早安.

  • Our direct sales business continues to scale rapidly, with reps covering over 300 stores now. I think it's 312 as of today. Our big barn customers are comping at nearly 50% with our direct sales specialists working directly with them. And we're selling over $200,000 a week now in sales and continuing to ramp pretty fast. We're taking that legendary service that our stores do a great job in and we're taking it out to the big barn customer. I'll give you just a quick example of a recent customer.

    我們的直銷業務持續快速成長,目前銷售代表已覆蓋 300 多家門市。我認為截至今天應該是 312。我們的大型穀倉客戶透過我們的直銷專家直接與他們合作,實現了近 50% 的折扣。我們現在每週的銷售額超過 20 萬美元,而且還在快速成長。我們將把我們門市一直以來提供的優質服務帶到大型農場客戶那裡。我給你舉個最近客戶的例子。

  • So customer in a Florida market was buying feed at a competitor somewhere else after three visits. And it normally takes about three to four visits for us to complete that sale. That customer decided to move to us. They're buying 80 bags of feed now, two skids of feed, buying them every other week. And we're able to create that relationship and an ongoing relationship. And then we'll continue to build on that basket as we go. Our team builds these relationships with our customers and our specialists have over 10 years -- on average 10 years of experience in this industry. And 100% of them live the lifestyle.

    佛羅裡達州某市場的一位顧客在三次光顧競爭對手的門市後,最終選擇在其他地方購買飼料。通常我們需要三到四次拜訪才能完成這筆交易。那位客戶決定轉到我們這裡。他們現在購買 80 袋飼料,兩個托盤飼料,每隔一周購買一次。我們能夠建立這種關係,並維持一段長期的關係。然後我們會繼續在此基礎上不斷改進。我們的團隊與客戶建立了這些關係,我們的專家平均擁有超過 10 年的行業經驗。他們中100%都過著這種生活方式。

  • So we're very pleased with the people we've hired. We're very pleased with where we're at. We've done four cohorts now, four training classes. The first, obviously, class in April. And that's starting to ramp up faster. And we're seeing that ramp each week as that class ramps up.

    所以我們對僱用的人員非常滿意。我們對目前的狀況非常滿意。我們已經完成了四期培訓班,也就是四次培訓課程。第一堂課顯然是在四月。而且這種趨勢正在加速發展。隨著課程的推進,我們每週都能看到這種成長趨勢。

  • To answer your question on specialists, we're at 48 specialists right now. We'll continue to look at markets for the remaining of this year where we'll have modest growth with another 8 to 10 reps. And as we get to next year, we'll continue to follow the final mile team. As they grow out there, we'll let them get established. And then we'll come in a little bit behind them. And then we'll start doing direct sales in those same markets.

    關於您提出的專家數量問題,我們目前有 48 位專家。今年剩餘時間裡,我們將繼續關注市場,預計在這些市場將溫和成長,再增加 8 到 10 次交易。明年,我們將繼續關注最後一哩團隊。等它們在那裡長大,我們會讓它們站穩腳步。然後我們會稍微落後他們一點。然後我們將開始在這些市場進行直接銷售。

  • We're -- average ticket continues to be strong, about seven times the company average. And we're very pleased with what we're seeing in the departments that are doing -- that are driving the sales or the departments that we thought they would: feed, fencing, and equine feed being the big one.

    我們的平均客單價持續走強,約為公司平均的七倍。我們對各部門的表現非常滿意——正是這些部門推動了銷售,或者說,正如我們預期的那樣:飼料、圍欄和馬飼料是其中最重要的幾個部門。

  • Steven Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Forbes - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lasser, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的麥可·拉塞爾。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. The question is, any changes you're seeing around the consumer behavior who lives in the Life Out Here environment, especially because the perception is that trends have slowed quarter to date, and folks are wondering, is that due to just the weather or is there something more that's going on?

    早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。問題是,您是否觀察到生活在戶外環境中的消費者行為發生了任何變化?尤其是因為人們普遍認為,到目前為止,趨勢已經放緩,人們不禁想知道,這只是因為天氣原因,還是還有其他原因?

  • And then as part of it, you were helpful in giving some color on the contribution from your initiatives, $200,000 in incremental sales per week. If you could build on that and give us a sense for how you think about that contribution as you move into next year across all of the initiatives that you have in place. Thank you very much.

    然後,作為其中的一部分,您還很有幫助地介紹了您的各項舉措所做的貢獻,每週新增銷售額達 20 萬美元。如果您能在此基礎上,談談您如何看待明年您在所有已製定的計劃中所做的貢獻,那就太好了。非常感謝。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Michael, and thanks for joining the call today, and good morning to you. I'll start out first just on the state of our consumer. Our consumer remains strong, resilient. We shared some of the metrics in our prepared remarks, but we had exceptional customer metrics in Q3, whether it relates to engagement and their shopping patterns or whether it relates to overall customer satisfaction. Those trends have not changed dramatically as we've moved into Q4, very much steady as she goes. I'll highlight a couple things on that.

    嗨,邁克爾,感謝你今天參加電話會議,早安。我先從我們消費者的現況談起。我們的消費者依然強勁,具有韌性。我們在事先準備好的演講稿中分享了一些指標,但第三季我們的客戶指標非常出色,無論是與客戶參與度和購物模式相關的指標,還是與整體客戶滿意度相關的指標。進入第四季後,這些趨勢並沒有發生顯著變化,依然保持穩定。我重點提幾點。

  • As we all know, the core component of that is our CUE business. Our CUE business continues to run very stable and very much in line with our year-to-date trends, and that's the fundamental underpinnings and foundation of our business. Certainly would acknowledge that the first couple of weeks here, three weeks or so of October, have had unfavorable weather for us, but it's -- the last few days started to get cool across the country and we feel very good about the outlook for the balance of the quarter. That's reflected in our guidance of 1% to 5% comp.

    我們都知道,其中的核心部分是我們的 CUE 業務。我們的 CUE 業務繼續保持非常穩定的運行,與我們今年迄今為止的趨勢非常一致,這是我們業務的根本基礎和基石。當然,我們必須承認,十月份的前兩週,也就是大約三週時間,天氣對我們不利,但是——最近幾天全國各地開始降溫,我們對本季度剩餘時間的展望非常樂觀。這體現在我們給出的1%至5%的薪酬成長預期。

  • And as we talked about in our prepared remarks as well, the biggest driver of variation in our sales in Q4 is a winter storm. And if you go back over the last decade or so, it's about 50-50 in those last two weeks if you get a polar vortex or a really, really significant cold snap. You look at 2018, I think, as a great example for this quarter where it started out warm in October. Very similarly, our first couple weeks were tougher comps.

    正如我們在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的,第四季度銷售額波動的最大驅動因素是冬季風暴。如果回顧過去十年左右的時間,在最後兩週內,出現極地渦旋或非常非常強烈的寒流的機率大約是 50%。我認為,2018 年就是一個很好的例子,可以作為本季的參考,因為 2018 年 10 月天氣就比較溫暖。同樣,我們前兩週的比賽難度也更高。

  • There was a government shutdown going on, and holiday sales that year were some of the weakest holiday sales in the last decade, and we still put up a 5.7% comp for that year -- I mean, for that quarter, because the last two weeks we had incredibly strong winter business. And we think our guidance reflects -- if you go back over the last decade plus, we're right in that -- the guidance range we've given, that midpoint of 3% comp, even if you exclude '20 and '21 where we had really high comps those two years, you exclude those, our center point is still right at about a 3% comp for Q4.

    當時政府停擺,那年的假期銷售額是近十年來最疲軟的假期銷售額之一,但我們那一年仍然實現了 5.7% 的同店銷售額增長——我的意思是,就那個季度而言,因為最後兩週我們的冬季業務非常強勁。我們認為,我們的業績指引反映了——如果你回顧過去十多年,我們確實處於我們給出的指引範圍內,即3%的同店銷售額中點,即使排除2020年和2021年這兩年同店銷售額非常高的情況,排除這兩年,我們第四季度的同店銷售額中點仍然約為3%。

  • So we feel really good about the guidance we've given in Q4. It is all about the cold weather in winter that starts to happen in December. We're really optimistic about our holiday. We've got a lot of things locked and loaded for that. Our Hometown Heroes event should give us the opportunity to get in the market very early in a very unique way for tractor supply. So just can't say enough positive things about how we're thinking about the balance of Q4, and we feel as bullish on Q4 as we did three months ago on our most previous earnings call.

    因此,我們對第四季度給予的業績指引感到非常滿意。這一切都與12月開始的冬季寒冷天氣有關。我們對這次假期充滿期待。我們已經為此做好了充分的準備。我們的「家鄉英雄」活動應該能讓我們以一種非常獨特的方式很早就進入拖拉機供應市場。所以,對於我們對第四季剩餘時間的展望,我們真是無比樂觀,我們對第四季的信心和三個月前上次財報電話會議上一樣強。

  • As it relates to the comments John made on direct sales, Michael, I'd say a few things. First off, John mentioned we've got a little over 40 sales reps right now, 48 sales reps in place. I'd say 20 to 25 of them are really doing the bulk of the sales driving right now out of that first cohort, second cohort of classes, and driving that $250,000 a week we're seeing right now. And we're ramping sequentially every single week, so we feel really good about the continued benefit that that's going to drive for us into next year. And we've always talked about 2026 would be when you'd start to see the impact of the initiatives in our results.

    關於約翰對直銷的評論,邁克爾,我想說幾點。首先,約翰提到我們現在有 40 多名銷售代表,總共有 48 位銷售代表。我認為,目前第一批、第二批學員中,有 20 到 25 人真正貢獻了大部分銷售額,推動了我們現在看到的每週 25 萬美元的銷售額。我們每週都在穩步提升產能,因此我們對明年將持續帶來的收益感到非常樂觀。我們一直認為,到 2026 年,我們將開始在業績中看到這些措施的影響。

  • At our next earnings call, we certainly will be providing guidance for '26 and more detail on how the initiatives layer into that guidance. But no doubt direct sales will be a complement and a driver of our growth next year.

    在下次財報電話會議上,我們肯定會提供 2026 年的業績指引,並詳細說明各項措施如何融入該指引中。但毫無疑問,明年直銷將成為我們成長的補充和驅動力。

  • Thanks so much for the question, Michael.

    非常感謝你的提問,麥可。

  • Michael Lasser - Analyst

    Michael Lasser - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kate McShane, Goldman Sachs.

    Kate McShane,高盛集團。

  • Kate McShane - Analyst

    Kate McShane - Analyst

  • We wanted to ask a few more questions around pricing and tariffs. The color you gave around ticket was helpful. How should we be thinking about ticket in Q4, especially when it comes to like-for-like price increases? And just when it comes to the change that we saw in the narrowing in the top line of guidance today, how much of that is because of the change in terms of what you are expecting to flow through in terms of price?

    我們也想就定價和關稅方面再問幾個問題。你給票打的顏色很有幫助。我們該如何看待第四季的票價,尤其是在同類票價上漲的情況下?至於我們今天看到的業績指引收窄的變化,其中有多少是因為您預期價格走勢的變化所造成的呢?

  • Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer

    Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer

  • Hey, Kate. This is Seth. Thanks for the question. For tariffs and kind of pricing, and as we look ahead, I would just kind of take a step back first and just say, first and foremost, that I just really highlight to the team that we have the tools and the team in place. And they've done a really nice job up to this point to navigate.

    嗨,凱特。這是賽斯。謝謝你的提問。關於關稅和定價,以及展望未來,我首先想退一步,首先要強調的是,我向團隊強調,我們已經擁有所需的工具和團隊。到目前為止,他們在應對方面做得非常出色。

  • And at this point, we're about halfway through the initial incremental tariff impact kind of year over year as it's kind of flown through to the P&L. We have taken some price where we have needed to here and there where we have. We have not seen a lot of elasticities yet. It has driven a little bit of AUR, but not a lot of elasticities.

    而目前,我們已經完成了最初逐年遞增關稅影響的一半,因為它已經反映在了損益表中。我們在需要的地方和需要的地方都採取了一些措施。我們目前還沒有看到太多的彈性效應。它推動了一定程度的AUR成長,但彈性並不大。

  • When we think about a look ahead, I would just say our top priority really is to continue to be that advocate of value for our customers. Our guidance implies that we're going to continue to navigate the additional costs that flow through to the P&L in Q4 as a result of these tariffs.

    展望未來,我認為我們的首要任務仍然是繼續為客戶創造價值。我們的指導意見表明,由於這些關稅,我們將繼續應對第四季度損益表中增加的額外成本。

  • Where we do take price, we're going to continue to be surgical. We do have a portfolio approach. As you know, CUE is such a big part of our business, 40% to 45%. And you think about that and mostly domestic based on that, it continues to be operating within kind of a lot in line with where we are kind of today and foresee that kind of going forward.

    在價格方面,我們將繼續採取精準策略。我們採取的是投資組合策略。如您所知,CUE 在我們業務中佔比非常大,達到 40% 到 45%。你想想,主要基於國內情況,它仍然在與我們今天的情況大致一致的範圍內運作,並預見未來也會如此。

  • So as we think about price as we look ahead, again, we're going to continue to navigate. Our focus again is on value perception. It's on managing margins. And at the end of the day, we're going to continue to make sure that we are priced right to make sure that we continue to take market share.

    所以,當我們展望未來考慮價格問題時,我們將繼續探索。我們再次將重點放在價值感知上。關鍵在於利潤率管理。歸根結底,我們將繼續確保定價合理,以確保我們能夠繼續擴大市場份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scot Ciccarelli, Truist.

    Scot Ciccarelli,Truist。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst

    Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. So Kurt provided some comments on '26. So when you guys look at next year and the OI margin expansion you referenced, is the potential on the 2%-plus comp coming from SG&A leverage? Is it coming from growth? Is there a mix? Can you just provide any more color or clarity around the thought process around that? Thank you.

    各位早安。所以庫爾特對26號發表了一些評論。那麼,當你們展望明年以及你們提到的營業利潤率擴張時,2%以上的成長潛力是否來自銷售、管理及行政費用槓桿作用?這是成長帶來的嗎?是否有混合裝?您能否再詳細解釋一下您當時的思考過程?謝謝。

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Yes, Scot. What you heard from me in my remarks, I'd summarize by saying we expect and see momentum in our gross margin expansion in 2026. The pressures on SG&A that you saw this year, we had said we were going to make a very purposeful investment to launch final-mile and direct sales, and that was going to put 15 to 20 basis points of pressure on operating margin in 2025.

    是的,斯科特。我剛才講話的內容,可以概括為:我們預期並看到2026年毛利率將維持成長動能。今年你們看到的銷售、一般及行政費用壓力,我們曾說過我們將進行一項非常有針對性的投資,以推出最後一公里配送和直銷,這將使 2025 年的營業利潤率面臨 15 到 20 個基點的壓力。

  • As you heard Hal mentioned just a second ago, the next cohorts and the 2026 launch, we anticipate paying for itself and there's no incremental pressure on SG&A. So between that and some of the transitory type items that were pressured this year, SG&A has less pressure in 2026 as we see it today and allowing us to be able to leverage at a lower, more normalized comp rate, as I mentioned, in that low 2% range.

    正如你剛才聽到 Hal 提到的,下一批學員和 2026 年的發布,我們預計能夠實現收支平衡,並且不會對銷售、一般及行政費用造成額外壓力。因此,考慮到今年受到壓力的一些暫時性項目,2026 年的銷售、一般及行政費用壓力較小,正如我們今天所看到的,這使我們能夠以較低、更正常的比較費率進行槓桿操作,正如我提到的,在 2% 的低範圍內。

  • And just as an example for Q3 and even our expectation for Q4 of this year, with 20 basis points of pressure on initiatives on year-over-year pressure from incentive comp just compares, and even some timing on the benefit or the pressure on sale-leaseback, you look at the core of the business and SG&A is in a really good shape. And it's really another great example of how at this point, we can leverage on SG&A at a lower comp rate and be able to grow operating margin modestly if we achieve that low to mid-2% range. And it's really about being able to move past the investments, and I hope that helps in regards to seeing the potential for next year.

    以今年第三季為例,甚至包括我們對第四季度的預期,由於激勵性薪酬同比壓力為 20 個基點,以及一些關於收益或售後回租壓力的時間安排,你看看業務的核心,銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的狀況非常好。這又是一個很好的例子,說明在目前情況下,如果我們能將銷售、管理及行政費用控制在較低的同業拆借率範圍內,就能實現適度的營業利潤率增長(如果能達到 2% 到 2% 的低位到中位數水平)。關鍵在於能夠放下投資,我希望這有助於看到明年的潛力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Zaccone, Citigroup.

    史蒂文‧扎科內,花旗集團。

  • Steven Zaccone - Analyst

    Steven Zaccone - Analyst

  • Great. Good morning. Thanks very much for taking my question. I wanted to ask on the same-store sales growth. So to follow up on Michael's question earlier, the fourth quarter, why does the low end of the guide include a one comp? Third quarter was back to algo. So just help us understand why there's a wider range for the fourth quarter. What gets you to the low end versus the high end? And then as we think about '26, thanks for the preliminary views, is there anything to be mindful of first half versus second half just since inflation was a factor in first half versus second half this year?

    偉大的。早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想詢問一下同店銷售成長情況。那麼,為了跟進邁克爾之前提出的問題,第四季度,為什麼指南的低端部分包含一個比較數據?第三季又回歸了演算法。所以請您幫我們理解一下,為什麼第四季的範圍會更廣。是什麼因素導致低端產品與高端產品之間的差異?那麼,當我們考慮 2026 年的情況時,感謝您提供的初步意見,鑑於今年上半年和下半年的通貨膨脹是一個影響因素,我們是否需要注意上半年和下半年的情況?

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, Scot (sic - Steven). As it relates to Q4, it's really just reflective of the range of outcomes that we see in the fourth quarter, as we've mentioned previously, kind of dominantly based on weather. And I think if you go back and look at our kind of 10-year trend on the fourth quarter, that's -- it's kind of the range that we've seen historically in this quarter. And anyway, so I just say that that's kind of reflective of what we're seeing.

    早安,史考特(原文如此 - Steven)至於第四季度,正如我們之前提到的,它實際上反映了我們在第四季度看到的各種結果,這主要取決於天氣。我認為,如果你回顧一下我們過去 10 年第四季的趨勢,你會發現——這基本上就是我們歷史上在這個季度所看到的波動範圍。總之,我只想說,這在某種程度上反映了我們所看到的現象。

  • The second thing I'd say as it relates to next year, there's really not a lot of ins and outs on the sales side for next year. A little bit of maybe of Q3 benefit I referenced in my earning scripts that might flow into Q2. But other than that, I think the sales should be pretty straightforward. You probably got a little more AUR benefit in the first half of the year than the second half of the year, at least what we know now.

    關於明年,我想說的第二點是,明年的銷售方面其實沒有什麼太大的改變。我在獲利報告中提到的一些第三季收益可能會延續到第二季​​。但除此之外,我認為銷售過程應該相當簡單明了。你可能在今年上半年獲得的 AUR 收益比下半年要多一些,至少我們目前所知是這樣。

  • Kurt mentioned we've got a DC opening next year. That's got a little bit of startup cost that will impact operating margin in the first half. But we get the cost of goods benefit on that on the second half from a new discount we get with our vendors for opening up a new DC. That should pretty much wash itself out for next year, just between the two halves a little bit.

    庫爾特提到我們明年在華盛頓特區有個開業機會。這會產生一些啟動成本,這將影響上半年的營業利潤率。但下半年,由於我們開設新的配送中心,供應商給了我們新的折扣,這筆商品成本收益就能得到補償。明年這部分損失應該基本上可以抵消,只會略微影響上下半年的營運。

  • So I'd say nothing too out of the ordinary next year. I think that's one of the big things that Kurt's prepared remarks we're trying to get across. We expect it to be a very much more of a normalized year than we've had in the last five or six years, whether that's across our P&L, whether that's across commodity, deflation, inflation, et cetera.

    所以我覺得明年應該不會有什麼特別出乎意料的事情發生。我認為這是我們試圖透過庫爾特準備的發言稿傳達的重要訊息之一。我們預計今年將比過去五、六年更加正常化,無論是從損益表來看,還是從大宗商品、通貨緊縮、通貨膨脹等方面來看。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Zach Fadem, Wells Fargo.

    札克法德姆,富國銀行。

  • Zachary Fadem - Analyst

    Zachary Fadem - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning. Kurt, on your '26 comments, maybe we could talk a bit more about the comp building blocks. Maybe -- we talked a little bit about direct sales. Maybe we could touch on Allivet. And curious how you think about other things like commodity inflation and tax refund stimulus. And adding this all up, is it fair to anticipate a return to comp algo in '26?

    嘿。早安.Kurt,關於你 '26 的評論,也許我們可以再多談談電腦的組成要素。也許——我們稍微聊了聊直銷。或許我們可以聊聊Allivet。我很想知道您對大宗商品通膨和退稅刺激等其他問題的看法。綜上所述,我們是否可以合理預期 2026 年演算法交易會回歸?

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • The information that I've shared thus far is about the length of what, at this point, I think it's appropriate to share on our thoughts for 2026. It's really been intended to say the P&L is more normalizing and at a run rate relatively consistent with what you're seeing in the second half of this year. There's an opportunity for margin inflection. We certainly will be able to share some of the details on how we build up to our guidance range for comp sales in the back half of the year.

    到目前為止,我分享的資訊大致涵蓋了我認為目前適合分享的關於我們對 2026 年的想法的內容。真正的意思是說,損益表正在逐步恢復正常,其運行速度與今年下半年的情況相對一致。利潤率有機會出現拐點。我們肯定會在今年下半年分享一些關於如何實現同店銷售預期目標的細節。

  • Things that we've said thus far that I'll just reiterate that it's important to understand, we see AURs continuing to be in a positive scenario the back half of this year and going into 2026. Transactions continue to be a core foundation for our comp sales growth and we anticipate that for 2026.

    我們之前說過的一些事情,我只想重申一下,重要的是要理解,我們認為 AUR 在今年下半年以及進入 2026 年之前將繼續保持積極的態勢。交易仍然是我們同店銷售成長的核心基礎,我們預計到 2026 年也將如此。

  • So in general, the consumer continues to engage in the lifestyle. We have a solid demand for our core business. We anticipate transactions and ticket to both contribute. The strategic initiative, which just launched this year, including Allivet, we're excited about the momentum. We anticipate that each of them will give some contribution.

    所以總的來說,消費者會繼續保持這種生活方式。我們的核心業務需求強勁。我們預計交易量和票務量都會有所貢獻。這項戰略計劃今年才剛啟動,其中包括 Allivet,我們對目前的進展勢頭感到非常興奮。我們預計他們每個人都會做出一些貢獻。

  • But I would just say at this point, early in each of those stages, those contributions are important to be able to show the acceleration of the momentum of the business, but won't be the key drivers of the comp sales growth. And we'll give you more information on what our range is and what the key contributors are in our January call.

    但我想說的是,在目前這個階段,在每個階段的早期,這些貢獻對於展現業務發展勢頭的加速至關重要,但它們不會是同店銷售成長的關鍵驅動因素。我們將在1月份的電話會議上向您詳細介紹我們的產品範圍和主要貢獻者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

    Chuck Grom,Gordon Haskett 研究顧問公司。

  • Charles Grom - Analyst

    Charles Grom - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks very much. Maybe a question for Seth or John or maybe Rob. Given the increase in tariff drops, I'm curious if you make any changes to your seasonal assortment for the holidays. Some of the retailers have talked about swapping out certain products. And I guess if so, how that supplementing of assortments could impact sales or gross margins here in the fourth quarter?

    嘿。各位早安。非常感謝。或許可以問問賽斯、約翰或羅布。鑑於關稅下調幅度加大,我很想知道你們是否會在節日期間對季節性商品種類進行任何調整。一些零售商已經討論過更換某些產品。那麼,如果情況屬實,這種產品組合的補充會對第四季的銷售或毛利率產生怎樣的影響呢?

  • And then just one quick one follow-up for Kurt. I think historically, your leverage gets you about 15 bps above or below. Would that still be the case based on that low 2% potential comp next year? Thank you.

    然後,我再快速問一下庫爾特一個後續問題。我認為從歷史數據來看,槓桿可以讓你獲得大約 15 個基點的漲跌幅。如果明年薪資漲幅僅 2%,情況是否依然如此?謝謝。

  • Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer

    Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer

  • Hey, Chuck. This is Seth. I'll start, and then I'll kick it over to Kurt for your second question.

    嘿,查克。這是賽斯。我先來,然後把你的第二個問題交給庫爾特回答。

  • For holiday, I would just say, going back to post the April announcements of the tariffs, the team did a really great job analyzing all the programs that were set aside for the back half, looking at where we thought there could be elasticities or tariffs could come in and went right away to kind of adjusting potential buys and things of that nature. I would tell you that like there's not a significant meaningful amount of updates and shifts that occurred other than maybe going from direct importing some products to finding domestic supply and demand, looking for products that had other countries and origins of supply.

    就假期而言,我想說,回顧四月份關稅公告發布之後,團隊在分析所有為下半年預留的項目方面做得非常出色,他們研究了我們認為可能存在彈性或關稅可能生效的地方,並立即著手調整潛在的採購等事宜。我會告訴你,除了從直接進口一些產品轉變為尋找國內供需,以及尋找來自其他國家和地區的產品之外,並沒有發生太多實質性的更新和轉變。

  • And I would just say that the team did a really nice job pivoting to those other countries of origins as well as taking advantage of opportunistic buys so that we can make sure that we have a really compelling offering as it comes and we look ahead to holiday. So we're really confident when we look ahead and be able to manage not only tariffs, but also being able to offer that kind of assortment that our customers expect for us around this time of year.

    我想說的是,團隊在轉向其他原產國以及抓住機會進行收購方面做得非常出色,這樣我們才能確保在假期來臨之際,我們能夠提供真正具有吸引力的產品。因此,展望未來,我們非常有信心不僅能夠應對關稅問題,還能提供客戶在這個季節所期望的各種商品。

  • I'll kick it over to Kurt and let him go to the second question.

    我把麥克風交給庫爾特,請他來回答第二個問題。

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Yeah, Chuck. Going back to my comments about the over -- moving beyond the peak investment cycle gives us the ability at lower comp rates, more historical Tractor Supply norms to be able to have some level of inflection and operating margin. When we gave our long-term guidance, we said we generally look in this guidance range to be able to grow our operating margin 5, 10, 15 basis points annually. And as we are able to achieve comp sales above that inflection point, I believe that scenario is very much in play for 2026.

    是的,查克。回到我之前關於「超越」的評論——超越投資週期的高峰期,使我們能夠在較低的比較率下,更接近 Tractor Supply 的歷史正常水平,實現一定程度的拐點和營運利潤率。我們在給予長期業績指引時曾表示,我們通常希望在這個指引範圍內,每年實現營業利潤率成長 5、10、15 個基點。我相信,只要我們能夠實現高於該拐點的同店銷售額,那麼這種情況在 2026 年很有可能發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Bellinger, Mizuho.

    David Bellinger,瑞穗銀行。

  • David Bellinger - Director

    David Bellinger - Director

  • Hey. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. I want to ask you about the hunting supplies expansion. We've noticed the rollout of ammo dens and the ammunition category as part of our checks. Can you help us size the revenue opportunity and the potential comp uplift there? How many stores can this reach? And any early reads from your core customer? Thank you.

    嘿。各位早安。謝謝你的提問。我想問您關於狩獵用品擴充的問題。我們在檢查中註意到彈藥庫和彈藥類別的推廣。您能幫我們評估一下該領域的收入機會和潛在的薪資提升嗎?這項服務能涵蓋多少家店?你們從核心客戶那裡得到了哪些初步回饋?謝謝。

  • Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer

    Seth Estep - Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer

  • Hey, David. It's Seth. Thanks for the question.

    嘿,大衛。是塞思。謝謝你的提問。

  • I would start with just saying that wildlife and recreation supplies have been a core kind of category growth strategy for us. If we go back even over the last five years, we continue to be really, really pleased with the growth of the categories and those items as we're looking at those in the store.

    首先我想說的是,野生動物和休閒用品一直是我們的核心品類成長策略。即使回顧過去五年,我們對各個品類以及店內商品的成長仍然感到非常非常滿意。

  • So when it goes directly to ammo, I would say ammo for us was just kind of a natural extension to that kind of outdoor wildlife and recreation category. We are the market leader in safes. We are growing significantly and call it feed and attractants. And when you look at those categories, ammo is kind of like that next iteration of CUE when you think about that wildlife category for us.

    所以,當直接談到彈藥時,我會說,對我們來說,彈藥只是戶外野生動物和娛樂類別的一種自然延伸。我們是保險箱市場的領導者。我們的成長速度非常快,我們稱之為飼料和誘餌。當你審視這些類別時,你會發現,就我們而言,彈藥就像是 CUE 的下一個迭代版本,尤其是在野生動物類別中。

  • Today, I would tell you we're in roughly about half of the chain. We've ramped that recently where we started with a small pilot and we're pleased with the initial results. We also have it online. And I'd say for a little bit for the foreseeable future would be in about that kind of store count as we kind of go into 2026 and we continue to manage that out. So again, ammo is kind of that natural extension to it.

    今天,我可以告訴你,我們大約已經完成了這條鏈條的一半左右。我們最近加大了投入,最初我們只是進行了小規模試點,但對初步結果感到滿意。我們也有線上版本。而且我認為,在可預見的未來,門市數量將維持在這種水平,直到 2026 年,我們將繼續努力實現這一目標。所以,彈藥可以說是它的自然延伸。

  • But I would just say more broadly, you're going to continue to see us go deeper and deeper in the wildlife and outdoor recreation categories. Because not only has it been a key growth driver for us in the business for the last five years, but as we look ahead. And that's part of the things that you're seeing with us with the Field & Stream partnership that we're launching. We're having those new exclusives kind of coming out. And for us, we're looking at that as like what's that kind of next category of growth similar to what we've seen over poultry kind of over the course of the last 5 years, 10 years, et cetera.

    但我想更廣泛地說,你們將會看到我們在野生動物和戶外休閒領域不斷深入探索。因為它不僅在過去五年中一直是我們業務成長的關鍵驅動力,而且展望未來也是如此。而這正是您透過我們與《Field & Stream》雜誌的合作計畫所看到的成果之一。我們即將推出一些新的獨家內容。對我們來說,我們正在研究下一個成長類別是什麼,類似於我們在過去 5 年、10 年等等時間裡在禽類領域看到的成長。

  • So thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Horvers, JPMorgan.

    克里斯霍弗斯,摩根大通。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So a couple of follow-up on the top line. You talked about 50 to 60 bps of spring seasonal demand, spring, summer shifting into the third quarter. We also talked about some fall headwind. So was that 50 to 60 sort of a smaller tailwind as you think about how it played out in September?

    謝謝。早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。接下來還有幾點要補充說明。您提到春季季節性需求將下降 50 至 60 個基點,春季和夏季的需求將延續到第三季。我們也討論了一些秋季逆風的情況。那麼,當你回顧9月的情況時,那50到60度的順風是不是就顯得小了一些?

  • And then as you think about the ticket component of comp, following up on an earlier question, into the -- Seth, you mentioned you're about halfway through rolling out pricing, but also into the fourth quarter, your mix goes more highly towards imported goods. So would you think that ticket could perhaps be up 2.5% in the fourth quarter or maybe a little bit more given the mix shifts? Thanks so much.

    然後,在考慮伴手禮的票務部分時,接著之前的問題,——塞思,你提到定價已經進行了一半,但進入第四季度,你的產品組合中進口商品的比例更高了。那麼,考慮到產品組合的變化,您認為該票務在第四季度可能會上漲 2.5%,甚至更高嗎?非常感謝。

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Hey, Chris. It's Kurt. In regards to the ticket question, we anticipate that our ticket will have a similar, maybe slightly higher impact on the fourth quarter for some of the things that you mentioned. The ticket had minimal impact this quarter on mix, including big tickets. So ticket is benefiting from the stable commodity market with some slight increase in the input cost, including tariffs. That may moderate up a bit in the fourth quarter.

    嘿,克里斯。是庫爾特。關於門票問題,我們預計我們的門票在第四季度會產生類似的影響,甚至可能對您提到的一些事情產生更大的影響。本季該票務產品組合(包括大額票務產品)的影響微乎其微。因此,儘管投入成本(包括關稅)略有上漲,但穩定的商品市場仍使機票價格受益。這種情況在第四季可能會有所緩和。

  • We've always said that in this quarter, there's volatility in regards to elasticity as well. So some of that includes, for ticket, how much impact maybe in the basket, et cetera. So we look at both transactions and ticket being a key contributor to the fourth quarter and maybe more outsized on ticket in the fourth quarter than it was the third quarter. And transactions will move in regards to demand for the business and, particularly as Hal mentioned earlier, the demand related to cold winter weather impact. So look at it that way in regards to the benefit.

    我們一直都說,在這個季度,彈性方面也存在波動。所以其中一些因素包括,對於門票而言,可能對購物車產生多大的影響等等。因此,我們認為交易量和票務量都是第四季的主要貢獻因素,而且第四季度票務量的貢獻可能比第三季更大。交易量會隨著業務需求而變化,尤其是像 Hal 之前提到的那樣,會受到寒冷冬季天氣的影響。所以,從好處的角度來看,就應該這樣看待它。

  • And then remind me the first part of your question, Chris.

    克里斯,然後請你提醒我你問題的第一部分是什麼。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • It was a -- Kurt, the -- it was whether do you think that 50-, 60-basis-point lift from the shift from 2Q to 3Q on the seasonal business, do you think it was a less of a tailwind considering what happened in September? Is that sort of your view of the net impact of weather in the third quarter?

    庫爾特,你認為從第二季度到第三季度季節性業務的轉變帶來的 50 到 60 個基點的增長,考慮到 9 月份發生的事情,是否算不上一個利好因素?您是否也這樣看待天氣對第三季的淨影響?

  • Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Kurt Barton - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Yeah. Let me -- I'll just step back on the third quarter in general. And we often say is the quarter favorable or unfavorable weather related, and third quarter overall was favorable from a weather perspective. And there's been some puts and takes in there. But if it's relatively a point of comp benefit from a good, solid weather condition in the third quarter, that's a pretty good range to look at it.

    是的。讓我——我只想總體上回顧一下第三季的情況。我們常說,這個季度是天氣有利還是不利,而從天氣角度來看,第三季總體上是有利的。這其中也經歷了一些買賣。但如果第三季良好的天氣條件能帶來相對的補償收益,那麼這是一個值得考慮的合理範圍。

  • Within there, Hal mentioned that areas on a delayed start to the second quarter and then the bathtub effect, some of that is what fell into July that may often be part of the second quarter. But overall, particularly July and August were set up as a favorable, solid third quarter. And then on the tail end of it, you had a headwind on there. But we do, overall, look at the third quarter as a solid, good, favorable weather condition type quarter.

    哈爾在其中提到,一些地區第二季度開始較晚,然後出現了浴缸效應,其中一些數據落在了7月份,而這些數據通常屬於第二季度的一部分。但總體而言,尤其是7月和8月,為第三季奠定了良好、穩健的基礎。然後,在行程的最後階段,你也遇到了逆風。但總體而言,我們認為第三季是一個穩健、良好且氣候條件有利的季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Ohmes, Bank of America.

    Robert Ohmes,美國銀行。

  • Robert Ohmes - Analyst

    Robert Ohmes - Analyst

  • Just two quick questions. Maybe Hal, can we get an update on retail media for Tractor Supply? And then another question for the team would just be, I think you guys, on the release, put out -- mentioned softness in select discretionary categories. A little color on that is -- was it apparel? Sounds like it wasn't big ticket overall, but would love to get any color on that.

    問兩個問題。Hal,可以為我們更新一下 Tractor Supply 的零售媒體狀況嗎?然後,我想問團隊的另一個問題是,我認為你們在新聞稿中提到了某些可自由支配類別的軟弱之處。稍微補充一點細節──是服裝嗎?聽起來整體來說花費不大,但我很想知道具體情況。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Robert. Thanks so much for the question today. I'll take the second one, and then I'll toss it to Rob to share some details on direct sales -- on retail media.

    嘿,羅伯特。非常感謝您今天提出的問題。我接第二個,然後把它交給羅布,讓他分享一些關於零售媒體直銷的細節。

  • As it relates to the softness in discretionary, really not much difference in what we saw in Q3 than what we saw in Q1 and Q2. The seasonal big ticket certainly continues to resonate with customers. When there's a need, they're purchasing. We saw that in July and August with riding lawnmowers, as we called out. But on the flip side is if there's not a big driver of demand, right now, we still see customers being a little bit cautious in their purchase of big ticket.

    就非必需消費品的疲軟程度而言,第三季的情況與第一季和第二季的情況並沒有太大差異。季節性大件商品無疑地繼續受到顧客的歡迎。有需要的時候,他們就會購買。我們在七、八月看到騎乘式割草機造成這種情況,正如我們所喊的。但另一方面,如果沒有強勁的需求驅動因素,目前我們仍然看到顧客在購買高價商品時會比較謹慎。

  • And for us, those are things like say dog kennels and crates. It could be -- it's things like that we've called out also like trailers and gun safes. Some of those every day, bigger-ticket businesses that we sell, there's just a little bit of kind of cautiousness from the consumer on that. It's been that way all year.

    對我們來說,這些東西指的是狗籠和狗箱之類的東西。有可能——我們也提到過類似拖車和槍支保險箱之類的東西。對於我們日常銷售的一些價格較高的商品,消費者往往會抱持一些謹慎的態度。一整年都是這樣。

  • And I think what we were trying to call out in Q3 is that the strength in riders offset the weakness there, also the weakness we mentioned in the last couple of weeks of emergency response. As you can imagine, we sold a lot of generators in weeks 38 and 39 of last year contributes to big ticket growth and contributes to average ticket growth, and we didn't have those sales this year. But I wouldn't call anything new out in big ticket in Q3 as it relates to even the trends we saw in the first half.

    我認為我們在第三季度試圖指出的是,騎士數量的優勢抵消了這方面的劣勢,也抵消了我們在過去幾週緊急應變方面提到的劣勢。可以想像,去年第 38 週和第 39 週我們賣出了許多發電機,這促進了高價商品的成長和平均價格的成長,而今年我們沒有這樣的銷售額。但就第三季的大宗商品而言,我不會說有什麼新的變化,即使與我們上半年看到的趨勢相比也是如此。

  • Robert Mills - Executive Vice President, Chief Technology, Digital Commerce and Strategy Officer

    Robert Mills - Executive Vice President, Chief Technology, Digital Commerce and Strategy Officer

  • All right. And good morning, Robert. This is Rob. Hope all's well.

    好的。早上好,羅伯特。這是羅布。希望一切都好。

  • So first, from a retail media perspective, we're continuing to make really strong progress. We entered this year with retail media with two primary objectives: one, to expand our partnerships and ultimately drive revenue. And we're on track for this year to deliver a triple retail media revenue growth year over year.

    首先,從零售媒體的角度來看,我們正在繼續取得非常強勁的進展。今年我們進入零售媒體領域時,有兩個主要目標:一是擴大合作關係,最終推動營收成長。我們預計今年將實現零售媒體收入年增三倍。

  • So we're very pleased about that. We're doing that by expanding the partnership count over 80%. Our average partner revenue is up by nearly 50%. And we're introducing new products and capabilities to our partners, such as branded pages, offsite products, and expanding our in-store display retail media offerings.

    我們對此非常滿意。我們正在透過將合作夥伴數量增加 80% 以上來實現這一目標。我們合作夥伴的平均收入成長了近 50%。我們正在向合作夥伴推出新產品和新功能,例如品牌頁面、站外產品,並擴大我們的店內展示零售媒體產品。

  • We're really early still into retail media. I would call it kind of say the first inning, but we're really pleased with the progress the team's made. We have extreme focus. We have strong value proposition back to our partners, really focusing on the footsteps and the rural market area. And in '26, where we're going to double down, expanding our vision to more of the self-service capabilities, the model related to more product placement related to ads, as well as products in general.

    我們進入零售媒體領域還處於非常早期的階段。我覺得這就像第一局一樣,但我們對球隊的進步感到非常滿意。我們極其專注。我們為合作夥伴提供了強大的價值主張,真正專注於實地考察和農村市場領域。2026 年,我們將加倍投入,將我們的願景擴展到更多的自助服務功能,以及與廣告相關的更多產品展示模式,以及一般的產品展示。

  • So with these expansion, the momentum that we're seeing in our partnership, as well as just continuing to put the focus on our value proposition, we feel we're well positioned going into '26. We're very pleased. The team's done a great job.

    因此,隨著這些擴張,以及我們在合作關係中看到的勢頭,再加上我們繼續專注於我們的價值主張,我們感覺我們已經為進入 2026 年做好了充分的準備。我們非常滿意。團隊做得非常出色。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Benedict, Baird.

    彼得·本尼迪克特,貝爾德。

  • Peter Benedict - Analyst

    Peter Benedict - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess I'll ask on AI, just maybe an update on what you guys are doing in that area and what your kind of outlook is for how you're going to layer it to Tractor Supply. Thank you.

    你好。各位早安。感謝您回答這個問題。我想問關於人工智慧方面的問題,想了解你們在這個領域正在做什麼,以及你們打算如何將人工智慧技術融入 Tractor Supply 的業務中。謝謝。

  • Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Harry Lawton - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Hey, Peter, thanks so much for the question on AI. We've got a lot of exciting things going on on that front, and I'm going to break it into three buckets: enterprise-level software -- well, now, we call it off-the-shelf enterprise software; second, I call custom-built enterprise software; and then the third I would talk about is around agents and automation.

    是的。嗨,彼得,非常感謝你提出的關於人工智慧的問題。我們在這方面有很多令人興奮的事情正在進行,我將把它分為三類:企業級軟體——現在,我們稱之為現成的企業軟體;第二類,我稱之為定制的企業軟體;第三類我想談談代理和自動化。

  • First off, on the enterprise kind of purchased software, all of our vendors that we work closely with are now rolling in AI modules, AI analysis, AI capabilities, whether that's in ERP systems, whether that's in replenishment systems, marketing, et cetera. So we are fast adopters there where appropriate, obviously, with clarity of understanding of functionality and security.

    首先,就企業級採購軟體而言,我們所有密切合作的供應商現在都在推行人工智慧模組、人工智慧分析、人工智慧功能,無論是在企業資源計畫 (ERP) 系統、補貨系統、行銷系統等等。因此,在充分了解功能和安全性的前提下,我們會在適當的情況下快速採用這些技術。

  • On the second one, in terms of custom built, we talked about that several times in the past. Those software systems applications that we built out, we continue to scale, we continue to refine, and they continue to -- and they become more and more key parts of just how we operate every single day. So whether that's Hey GURA, which is increasing in its use, whether that's Tractor Vision, in terms of our customers -- calling out when customers need help in areas that our team members might not have visibility to them, or whether that's in Quorso, which drives day to day operational tasks. So those are just three examples of custom-built applications that are scaled out now and continue to ramp and their impact and use by our team members.

    關於第二個問題,也就是客製化方面,我們過去已經討論過好幾次了。我們開發的這些軟體系統應用程序,我們不斷擴展,不斷改進,它們也越來越成為我們日常營運的關鍵組成部分。所以,無論是使用量不斷增加的 Hey GURA,還是 Tractor Vision(就我們的客戶而言——當客戶需要幫助,而我們的團隊成員可能無法看到這些領域時,Tractor Vision 會發出求助信號),又或是 Quorso(用於驅動日常營運任務)。以上只是三個客製化應用程式的範例,這些應用程式目前正在擴展並持續成長,以及它們對我們團隊成員的影響和使用情況。

  • On the third one around kind of automation and agent buildout, over the last six months, we've done a enterprise integration with OpenAI. We now have over 1,200, I think 1,500 users that now have OpenAI enterprise accounts. That's integrated with our Snowflake data lake. And what that allows us to do now is to start, really across the organization, building agents to automate and make things simpler and faster.

    關於第三個方面,即自動化和代理構建,在過去的六個月裡,我們與 OpenAI 進行了企業整合。我們現在有超過 1200,我想應該是 1500 個使用者擁有 OpenAI 企業帳戶。它與我們的 Snowflake 資料湖整合在一起。這使得我們現在可以真正開始在整個組織內建立代理,以實現自動化,使事情變得更簡單、更快捷。

  • An example of that would be in, say, our FAST team, where in the past, when a FAST team member would finish a planogram reset, they would take a picture, they would send it to their district manager -- district FAST supervisor, they would review it and provide manual feedback. We've now built up the capability where when that picture is taken, AI assesses the picture and gives immediate feedback to the team member, and our district FAST supervisor only has to get involved with escalations.

    例如,在我們快速回應團隊中,過去,當快速回應團隊成員完成貨架圖重置後,他們會拍張照片,然後將其發送給他們的區域經理——區域快速回應主管,由他們審核並提供人工回饋。我們現在已經具備了這樣的能力:當拍攝照片時,人工智慧會評估照片並立即向團隊成員提供回饋,而我們的地區快速反應小組主管只需要介入處理升級問題。

  • And so just makes everybody's job more efficient and allows us to execute faster. Kudos to the team across really all dimensions of our organization for embracing it and driving that productivity enhancements that it can provide.

    這樣一來,每個人的工作效率都會更高,執行速度也會更快。感謝我們組織各層面的團隊積極接受並推動這項技術帶來的生產力提升。

  • Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

    Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

  • Alyssa, we've got time for maybe just one more quick question. So let's see if we can slip one more in.

    艾麗莎,我們或許還有時間再問你一個問題。那我們看看能不能再塞進去一個。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Spencer Hanus, Wolfe Research.

    Spencer Hanus,Wolfe Research。

  • Spencer Hanus - Analyst

    Spencer Hanus - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for the question. I just wanted to ask on store growth stepping up for next year, where do you see most of that growth being centered? Is it new or infill markets? And then how are you thinking about the cannibalization from that growth and then returns on those stores as well?

    早安.謝謝你的提問。我想問一下,關於明年門市成長加速的問題,您認為成長主要會集中在哪些方面?是新建市場還是現有市場?那麼,您如何看待這種成長帶來的蠶食效應以及這些門市的收益呢?

  • John Ordus - Executive Vice President, Chief Stores Officer

    John Ordus - Executive Vice President, Chief Stores Officer

  • Yeah, thanks for the question. Appreciate it.

    謝謝你的提問。謝謝。

  • So on new store growth, first, I'd just say, as we look backwards the last 18, 24 months, there were some questions around our new store productivity being lower. And we talked about there was a lot of noise in there. And as we said, then, ex the noise, we've been running pretty consistent and we continue to be pretty consistent.

    關於新店成長,首先,我想說,回顧過去 18 到 24 個月,我們新店的生產力較低,這引起了一些疑問。我們談到裡面有很多噪音。正如我們之前所說,撇開噪音不談,我們的營運一直相當穩定,而且我們將繼續保持這種穩定狀態。

  • The new store productivity numbers of late are continuing to show their new store productivity is running strong and consistent. Our new stores are performing above pro forma. Our site selection and model is the best we've ever had in our pipeline strong. And the real estate construction team are doing an excellent job continuing to build up these stores in the right locations.

    近期新店生產力數據持續表明,其新店生產力表現強勁且穩定。我們新開的門市業績超乎預期。我們的選址和模式是我們迄今為止在產品線中最強大的。房地產建設團隊在合適的地點繼續建造這些門市,做得非常出色。

  • We know that cannibalization, we can build out markets, we can grow the overall market. And we're seeing cannibalization numbers coming even lower than what we predict them to be. So we know that the growth is out there. We see growth across the entire United States. But a lot of our growth will continue to be in the West as we're opening a new DC out there. In Idaho, we'll continue to grow stores up there as well.

    我們知道,透過蠶食市場,我們可以拓展市場,我們可以擴大整體市場。而且我們看到,產品蠶食現象的實際數字甚至比我們預測的還要低。所以我們知道成長機會就在那裡。我們看到美國各地都在成長。但我們的大部分成長仍將來自西部,因為我們將在那裡開設一個新的配送中心。在愛達荷州,我們也將繼續在那裡拓展門市。

  • Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

    Mary Winn Pilkington - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Public Relations

  • Well, Alyssa, I know we've hit the top of the hour, so that will wrap our call. I'm around, and I'll -- anytime anybody needs anything at all. So thank you all for joining our call today.

    好了,艾莉莎,我知道已經到了整點​​,所以我們的通話就到此結束了。我隨時都在,只要有人需要什麼,我都會幫忙。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。