Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Tractor Supply Company's conference call to discuss third-quarter 2024 results. (Operator Instructions)

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Tractor Supply Company 的電話會議，討論 2024 年第三季業績。（操作員說明）

Please be advised that reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization of Tractor Supply Company. And as a reminder, this call is being recorded.

請注意，未經 Tractor Supply Company 書面授權，不得全部或部分複製此通話。提醒一下，此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mrs. Mary Winn Pilkington, Senior Vice President of Investor and Public Relations for Tractor Supply Company. Mary Winn, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人瑪麗溫皮爾金頓 (Mary Winn Pilkington) 女士，她是拖拉機供應公司投資者和公共關係高級副總裁。瑪麗·溫，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the time to join us today. On the call today are Hal Lawton, our CEO; Kurt Barton, our CFO. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call up for your questions. Seth Estep, our EVP and Chief Merchandising Officer, will join us for the question-and-answer session. Please note that we have made a supplemental slide presentation available on our website to accompany today's earnings release.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安。感謝您今天抽空加入我們。今天參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Hal Lawton；庫爾特·巴頓，我們的財務長。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將開始電話詢問您的問題。我們的執行副總裁兼首席行銷長 Seth Estep 將參加我們的問答環節。請注意，我們在網站上提供了補充幻燈片演示，以配合今天的收益發布。

Now let me reference the Safe Harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including the future operating and financial performance of the company. In many cases, these risks and uncertainties are beyond our control. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations or any of its forward-looking statements will prove to be correct, and actual results may differ materially from expectations.

現在讓我參考 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中的安全港條款。本次電話會議可能包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述面臨重大風險和不確定性，包括公司未來的營運和財務表現。在許多情況下，這些風險和不確定性超出了我們的控制範圍。儘管該公司認為其前瞻性聲明中反映的預期是合理的，但它不能保證此類預期或其任何前瞻性陳述將被證明是正確的，並且實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。

Important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in the forward-looking statements are included at the end of the press release issued today and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information contained in this call is accurate only as of the date discussed. Investors should not assume that statements will remain operative at a later time.

今天發布的新聞稿末尾以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中反映的結果存在重大差異的重要風險因素。本次電話會議所包含的資訊僅截至討論日期準確。投資者不應假設該聲明將在以後繼續有效。

Tractor Supply undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed on this call. Given the number of people who want to participate, we respectfully ask you to please limit yourself to one question. If you have additional questions, please feel free to get back in the queue. I appreciate your cooperation. We will be available after the call for follow-ups.

Tractor Supply 不承擔更新本次電話會議中討論的任何資訊的義務。鑑於想要參與的人數眾多，我們謹請您只回答一個問題。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時回到佇列。感謝您的合作。我們將在致電後進行跟進。

Thank you for your time and attention this morning. Now it's my pleasure to turn it over to Hal.

感謝您今天早上的時間和關注。現在我很高興把它交給哈爾。

Thank you, Mary Winn, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. My sincere thanks and appreciation go out to my fellow 50,000 Tractor Supply team members. I know we've all been watching the devastation over the last few weeks that's been wrecked by Hurricane Helene and Milton with great concern and heartbreak.

謝謝瑪麗溫，大家早安，謝謝您今天加入我們。我向 50,000 名拖拉機供應團隊成員表示誠摯的感謝和讚賞。我知道過去幾週我們都在關注颶風海倫和米爾頓所造成的破壞，深感擔憂和心碎。

Hurricane Helene struck particularly close to the heart for me, given my roots in East Tennessee. Tractor Supply has taken a multitude of actions, big and small, to take care of our team members, customers and communities during this difficult time. I'd like to give a special thank you to all our team members who rallied to help the communities impacted by the storm season. We will continue to be there for our team members, customers from our communities in the days and months ahead for the recovery process. I would also like to thank our many vendor partners who are stepping up in the recovery effort.

鑑於我的根在田納西州東部，颶風海倫對我來說特別刺痛。Tractor Supply 採取了許多大大小小的行動，在這個困難時期照顧我們的團隊成員、客戶和社區。我要特別感謝我們所有團結起來幫助受風暴季節影響的社區的團隊成員。在未來的幾天和幾個月的恢復過程中，我們將繼續為我們的團隊成員和社群客戶提供協助。我還要感謝我們許多正在加緊恢復工作的供應商合作夥伴。

As it relates to a sales benefit from our response, we had no material benefit in Q3 but have seen an impact in Q4 and additionally have been somewhat encouraged by the recent change of seasons. This morning, we shared some exciting news that we've entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Allivet, a leading online pet pharmacy. This is a company we know very well as they've been excellent partners to us in fulfilling our pet subscription business for the last couple of years.

由於這與我們的應對措施帶來的銷售收益有關，因此我們在第三季度沒有獲得實質收益，但在第四季度看到了影響，而且最近的季節變化也給我們帶來了一定的鼓舞。今天早上，我們分享了一些令人興奮的消息，我們已達成收購領先線上寵物藥局 Allivet 的最終協議。這是一家我們非常了解的公司，因為過去幾年他們一直是我們履行寵物訂閱業務的優秀合作夥伴。

This is a great opportunity for us to bring another benefit to our 37 million Neighbor's Club members. Allivet offers a convenient and cost-effective way to get medications and specialty items for their pets and livestock. The addition of Allivet allows us to expand our total addressable market by about $15 billion. Allivet is the best-in-class platform with an excellent management team and a strong financial profile. This is a great example of a strategic tuck-in acquisition. We anticipate that Allivet will be accretive to earnings in 2025 and we look forward to welcoming the Allivet team to Tractor Supply.

這是我們為 3700 萬鄰裡俱樂部會員帶來另一項福利的絕佳機會。Allivet 提供了一種方便且經濟高效的方式來為寵物和牲畜獲取藥物和特殊物品。Allivet 的加入使我們的潛在市場總額擴大了約 150 億美元。Allivet 是一流的平台，擁有優秀的管理團隊和強大的財務狀況。這是策略性收購的一個很好的例子。我們預計 Allivet 將在 2025 年增加收益，我們期待歡迎 Allivet 團隊加入 Tractor Supply。

We are planning to host an Investment Community Day in New York City on the afternoon of Thursday, December 5. At that time, we look forward to providing more details on our Life Out Here strategy for the second half of the decade, including our plans to leverage Allivet online and in stores.

我們計劃於 12 月 5 日星期四下午在紐約市舉辦投資社區日。屆時，我們期待提供有關本世紀後半葉的 Life Out Here 戰略的更多詳細信息，包括我們在網上和商店利用 Allivet 的計劃。

So now let's shift to the quarter. For the third quarter, the macro retail environment was in line with our expectations and our customer remained resilient. While the overall economy remains strong as evidenced by a 3% Q2 GDP, overall retail sales continue to moderately underperform. The primary driver of this underperformance is the continued shift of consumer spend to services. As a consequence, we estimate that retail sales growth was nearly flat in our third quarter.

現在讓我們轉向季度。第三季度，宏觀零售環境符合我們的預期，我們的客戶保持彈性。儘管第二季 GDP 成長 3% 證明整體經濟依然強勁，但整體零售銷售持續表現略差。造成這種表現不佳的主要原因是消費者支出持續轉向服務業。因此，我們估計第三季零售額成長幾乎持平。

It is our estimate that the farm and ranch channel was modestly negative in the quarter and that we continue to be a share gainer. I would describe the sentiment of our customer as relatively stable as supported by the recent jobs report and the current unemployment rate of 4.1%. Consistent with prior quarters, our consumer continues to be judicious with their spending focused on innovation, newness, and needs-based products.

我們估計農場和牧場管道在本季度略有負值，並且我們將繼續成為份額增長者。我認為我們客戶的情緒相對穩定，這得到最近的就業報告和當前 4.1% 的失業率的支持。與前幾季一樣，我們的消費者繼續明智地將支出集中在創新、新穎和基於需求的產品上。

Year to date, through the third quarter, the macro retail environment is running in line with the subdued expectations that we had as we entered the year. Also, as we expected, our team has managed our business exceptionally well. Correspondingly, our sales and profitability to continue to run in the range of our beginning guidance and have allowed us to consistently raise the lower end of our outlook.

今年迄今為止，到第三季度，宏觀零售環境的運作與我們進入今年時的低迷預期一致。此外，正如我們所期望的那樣，我們的團隊將我們的業務管理得非常好。相應地，我們的銷售額和盈利能力繼續在我們的初始指導範圍內運行，並使我們能夠不斷提高我們的前景下限。

Let's turn to some highlights of our performance for the quarter. We grew net sales by 1.6%, with comparable store sales down a slight 0.2%. Diluted EPS was $2.24. Our comparable store sales performance was driven by transaction growth of 0.3% offset by average ticket decline of 0.5%.

讓我們來看看本季業績的一些亮點。我們的淨銷售額成長了 1.6%，可比商店銷售額小幅下降 0.2%。稀釋後每股收益為 2.24 美元。我們的可比較商店銷售業績是由 0.3% 的交易成長（被平均門票下降 0.5% 所抵銷）推動的。

Emergency response, as mentioned earlier, had no material impact on Q3 comp sales. As we shared on our last call, we anticipated that the quarter would be in line with our full-year guidance. As we move through the quarter, many of the same trends from the first half of the year continued to play out.

如前所述，緊急應變對第三季的銷售額沒有重大影響。正如我們在上次電話會議中分享的那樣，我們預計該季度將與我們的全年指導保持一致。隨著本季的進展，許多與上半年相同的趨勢持續出現。

Notably, our customer engagement remains strong. The investments we've made in our Neighbor's Club, our world-class loyalty program, are a competitive advantage for us as we continue to see solid growth in customer counts and retention. Our Neighbor's Club comp sales continue to outpace our overall sales growth. At the same time, we reached an all-time high on our sales penetration and a record membership of more than 37 million members. Our Neighbor's Club retention rate remains remarkably consistent as our best customers continue to shop us more frequently and remain extremely loyal.

值得注意的是，我們的客戶參與度仍然很高。我們對鄰居俱樂部（我們的世界一流的忠誠度計劃）的投資對我們來說是一種競爭優勢，因為我們繼續看到客戶數量和保留率的穩定增長。我們的 Neighbor's Club 贈品銷售繼續超過我們的整體銷售成長。同時，我們的銷售滲透率創歷史新高，會員人數創歷史新高，超過 3,700 萬人。我們的 Neighbor's Club 保留率保持非常穩定，因為我們最好的客戶繼續更頻繁地在我們這裡購物並保持極高的忠誠度。

Our Hometown Heroes program has gained traction with our customers as our store team members have rallied around this unique benefit as an opportunity to engage with veterans and first responders in their local communities. Additionally, our new customer data platform has gone live for all stores and digital platforms, which will allow for greater data integrity, a 360-degree view of our customer, and deeper personalization. Overall, our Neighbor's Club offerings continue to drive meaningful wins with our members.

我們的家鄉英雄計畫贏得了客戶的青睞，因為我們的商店團隊成員圍繞著這一獨特的福利團結起來，將其視為與當地社區的退伍軍人和急救人員互動的機會。此外，我們的新客戶資料平台已在所有商店和數位平台上上線，這將實現更高的資料完整性、360 度的客戶視圖和更深入的個人化。總體而言，我們的鄰裡俱樂部服務繼續為我們的會員帶來有意義的勝利。

At Tractor Supply, we continue to invest in customer service as we believe is a differentiator for us. Our customers come to us for trusted advice. Our commitment to excellence in service and investments in training, tools and technology are being recognized by our customers. Our scores continue to run at all-time highs with improvements year over year every month for 40 consecutive months.

在 Tractor Supply，我們繼續投資於客戶服務，因為我們相信這是我們的差異化因素。我們的客戶向我們尋求值得信賴的建議。我們對卓越服務的承諾以及對培訓、工具和技術的投資正在得到客戶的認可。我們的分數繼續保持歷史最高水平，並且連續 40 個月每個月都在逐年提高。

Turning to our category performance. Strong positive comps and big ticket items continued for the third quarter notably in zero turn and front agent riding law mowers as well as recreational vehicles. This year, our team did a tremendous job bringing newness and innovation with attractive pricing to these categories. And our customers have responded positively to the new product lineup and our investment in inventory.

轉向我們的類別表現。第三季度，強勁的積極競爭和高價項目繼續存在，特別是在零轉彎和前置代理乘坐式割草機以及休閒車方面。今年，我們的團隊做了巨大的工作，為這些類別帶來了新鮮感和創新以及具有吸引力的價格。我們的客戶對新產品陣容和我們的庫存投資做出了積極的反應。

As we experienced last quarter, we anticipated our consumable, usable, and edible products would run modestly below the chain average in the third quarter as deflation weighed on our average unit retail. The needs-based, demand-driven nature of our product categories continues to drive unit velocity in this segment of our business.

正如我們上個季度所經歷的那樣，我們預計第三季度我們的消費品、可用和食用產品的運作將略低於環比平均水平，因為通貨緊縮對我們的平均單位零售造成壓力。我們產品類別的基於需求、需求驅動的性質繼續推動我們這一業務領域的單位速度。

Specifically in pet food, industry data suggests the category was slightly positive in Q3 consistent with trends through the first part of the year as the category disinflates and pet ownership trends remain soft. Our business in this category, while moderating from historical trends, continues to be a share winner in both households and dollars although this is a small number math at this point. A couple of data points on share, Tractor Supply was two times the category growth rate in Q3 and nearly six times out of the grocery channel, again, pointing back that this is a small number math relative to the previously higher growth rates that this category has seen in the last few years.

特別是在寵物食品方面，行業數據表明，該類別在第三季度略有增長，與今年上半年的趨勢一致，因為該類別的膨脹程度較低，且寵物擁有趨勢仍然疲軟。我們在這一類別中的業務雖然從歷史趨勢來看有所放緩，但在家庭和美元方面仍然是份額贏家，儘管目前這只是一個小數字。關於份額的幾個數據點，拖拉機供應是第三季類別成長率的兩倍，是雜貨通路的近六倍，這再次表明，相對於該類別之前較高的成長率，這只是一個小數字。過去幾年見過。

In the quarter, in the pet business, we invested in in-stock inventory rates, maintained our emphasis on EDLP, leveraged our customer service to drive basket building, and focused our marketing on the newness and innovation we've added to our lineup. In our most recent all-store meeting, we invested in training for our nearly 45,000 store team members on selling techniques for pet food and driving treat attachments.

本季度，在寵物業務中，我們投資於庫存率，保持對 EDLP 的重視，利用我們的客戶服務推動購物籃建設，並將行銷重點放在我們產品陣容中添加的新穎性和創新。在我們最近的全店會議中，我們投資了對近 45,000 名商店團隊成員進行寵物食品銷售技術和駕駛零食配件的培訓。

We also had a very successful pet appreciation days where we marketed newly introduced brands like ACANA and Real Mesa and our exclusive brands such as Retriever, 4health and MuttNation by Miranda Lambert. In equine, livestock and poultry feed, we continue to gain market share. While average unit retails are down mid- to high-single digits in these categories, we had unit or pound growth across all species. And as large animal counts continue to be pressured, we are certainly a share winner with our strong unit performance.

我們也舉辦了非常成功的寵物鑑賞日活動，我們行銷了新推出的品牌，如 ACANA 和 Real Mesa，以及我們的獨家品牌，如 Retriever、4health 和 Miranda Lambert 的 MuttNation。在馬、畜禽飼料方面，我們不斷擴大市場份額。雖然這些類別的平均單位零售量下降了中高個位數，但所有品種的單位或磅都出現成長。隨著大型動物數量繼續面臨壓力，我們憑藉強勁的單位表現無疑是份額贏家。

Much like the first half of the year, categories that performed below our comp sales growth were in our discretionary businesses such as clothing, footwear and outdoor living as well as in hardlines products such as ag fencing and pet kennels. Additionally, seasonal businesses such as heating, heating fuel and insulated outerwear were negative.

與今年上半年一樣，表現低於我們同期銷售成長的類別是我們的非必需品業務，如服裝、鞋類和戶外生活，以及強硬產品，如農業圍欄和寵物狗舍。此外，暖氣、暖氣燃料和保暖外套等季節性業務表現不佳。

Our customer continues to respond in newness and innovation. A great example is a strong start to our Halloween decor, which included a differentiated and expanded assortment such as the 6-foot rooster skeleton that went viral. Another great example is in wildlife supplies. We're a destination for deer corn and have expanded this year into trail cameras and feeders.

我們的客戶不斷以新穎和創新的方式回應。一個很好的例子是我們的萬聖節裝飾的良好開端，其中包括差異化和擴展的品種，例如病毒式傳播的 6 英尺公雞骨架。另一個很好的例子是野生動物用品。我們是鹿玉米的目的地，今年已擴展到追蹤相機和餵食器。

Our digital sales continued to outperform with double-digit growth. The team has made substantial improvements in search and check out. We continue to accelerate our digital sales with platforms that set the standard for our customers and rival best-in-class retail experiences.

我們的數位銷售持續表現出色，實現兩位數成長。該團隊在搜尋和結帳方面做出了重大改進。我們繼續透過為客戶設定標準並提供與一流零售體驗相媲美的平台來加速數位銷售。

We opened 16 new Tractor Supply stores in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to 54. Our new store productivity continues to perform very well. Our pipeline for '25 and into '26 remains very robust with significant runway for low-risk, value-creating organic growth ahead of us. As we exited the third quarter, we have achieved some significant milestones in our Life Out Here strategy. We now have 45% of our chain in our Project Fusion layout and more than 550 garden centers. These are capital investments that provide a multiyear runway for growth and extend the terminal value of our stores. They help us to be more relevant to both our core and new customers, allowing us to garner a greater share of their spending and be the dependable supplier for their lifestyle.

本季我們新開了 16 家 Tractor Supply 商店，使年初至今的總數達到 54 家。我們的新店生產力持續表現出色。我們的 25 年和 26 年管道仍然非常強勁，我們前面有低風險、創造價值的有機成長的重要跑道。隨著第三季的結束，我們在「這裡的生活」策略中實現了一些重要的里程碑。現在，我們的 Project Fusion 佈局中有 45% 的連鎖店和超過 550 個花園中心。這些資本投資為我們的商店提供了多年的成長跑道並擴大了最終價值。它們幫助我們與核心客戶和新客戶更加相關，使我們能夠獲得他們更大的支出份額，並成為他們生活方式的可靠供應商。

I commend the team on these investments and results given the scope and scale of these initiatives. It is hard to identify another retailer that has made this substantial investment in their store base in such a short period of time.

考慮到這些措施的範圍和規模，我對團隊的這些投資和成果表示讚賞。很難找到另一家零售商能夠在如此短的時間內對其商店基礎進行如此大量的投資。

We've also made major investments in our supply chain. Over the last four years, the team has added 2 million square feet to our DC capacity with the seamless opening of two new distribution centers. These new DCs have allowed us to service our existing store base while providing flexibility for future volume and new store growth. The addition of 10 mixing centers, bringing our total to 16, has improved our service levels to our stores.

我們也對供應鏈進行了重大投資。在過去四年中，團隊透過無縫開設兩個新配送中心，為我們的配送中心容量增加了 200 萬平方英尺。這些新的配送中心使我們能夠為現有的商店群提供服務，同時為未來的銷售和新商店的成長提供靈活性。新增 10 個混合中心，使我們的總數達到 16 個，提高了我們為商店提供的服務水準。

A new import distribution center has also allowed for greater flexibility to flow our seasonal goods. As a result, we have had a 20% structural improvement in our stem miles and corresponding cost savings. Our DC productivity has also reached strong levels.

新的進口配送中心也為我們的季節性商品流通提供了更大的彈性。結果，我們的幹線里程結構性提高了 20%，並節省了相應的成本。我們的 DC 生產力也達到了很高的水平。

In conclusion, the team is performing admirably short term and long term. True to track supply style, we are efficiently managing the elements within our control and advancing our Life Out Here strategy. As we enter the fourth quarter, we are raising the low end of our guidance for the fiscal '24 sales and earnings to reflect our performance year to date and our outlook for the fourth quarter of the year.

總之，該團隊的短期和長期表現都令人欽佩。忠於追蹤供應風格，我們正在有效地管理我們控制範圍內的要素，並推進我們的「生活在這裡」策略。隨著進入第四季度，我們將提高 24 財年銷售和收益指引的下限，以反映我們今年迄今的業績以及對今年第四季的展望。

The fourth quarter has started out well as we benefited from emergency response sales for Hurricane Helene and Milton, both of which were fourth-quarter events for us. The sales benefit is reflected in our guidance for the year. As we plan for the fourth quarter, we continue to anticipate that our customers remain prudent with our spending as is typical in an election year.

第四季度開局良好，因為我們受益於颶風海倫和米爾頓的緊急響應銷售，這兩個事件對我們來說都是第四季度的事件。銷售效益反映在我們今年的指導中。在我們第四季度的計劃中，我們繼續預計我們的客戶對我們的支出保持謹慎，這在選舉年是典型的。

We are capitalizing on our strengths and enhancing our competitive edge in the market. With the support of our team members, their strong connections with our customers, and our successful strategic initiatives, we continue to outpace our competitors. Now I'll turn the call over to Kurt to provide more color on our performance and outlook.

我們正在充分利用我們的優勢，增強我們在市場上的競爭優勢。在我們團隊成員的支持、他們與客戶的緊密聯繫以及我們成功的策略舉措的幫助下，我們不斷超越競爭對手。現在我將把電話轉給庫爾特，以提供有關我們的表現和前景的更多資訊。

Thank you, Hal, and good morning to everyone on the call. As Hal mentioned, our third-quarter top-line results were consistent with our expectations and in line with the results in the first half of the year. We saw a continued strength in big-ticket sales, while our discretionary categories remained pressured. Our seasonal category performance, exclusive of big ticket, was in line with chain average at a modest decline to prior year.

謝謝你，哈爾，祝所有參加電話會議的人早安。正如哈爾所提到的，我們第三季的營收結果符合我們的預期，也與上半年的結果一致。我們看到大宗商品銷售持續強勁，而我們的非必需品類別仍然面臨壓力。我們的季節性品類表現（不包括大票）與環比平均一致，但較去年略有下降。

Similar to the first half of the year, we saw strong performance in seasonal categories, such as live goods, [multis] and soils, grilling and wildlife supplies. This was offset by softness in ag fencing, heating, outdoor living, and lawn and garden tools. As we expected, our CUE performance was slightly below the chain average, given the retail price deflation and moderating pet category trends the industry is experiencing.

與今年上半年類似，我們在季節性類別中看到了強勁的表現，例如生鮮商品、[多種]和土壤、燒烤和野生動物用品。這被農業圍欄、暖氣、戶外生活、草坪和園藝工具的疲軟所抵消。正如我們預期的那樣，鑑於零售價格通貨緊縮和行業正在經歷的寵物類別趨勢放緩，我們的 CUE 表現略低於環比平均水平。

Retail price deflation, which was approximately 1%, was in line with our expectations. The vast majority of this deflation came from our CUE categories. As Hal mentioned, we are pleased with our unit movement in CUE as we successfully managed through the impact of deflation this quarter and are now starting to lap the beginning of this deflationary cycle from last year.

零售價格通貨緊縮約 1%，符合我們的預期。這種通貨緊縮的絕大多數來自我們的 CUE 類別。正如哈爾所提到的，我們對 CUE 的單位變動感到滿意，因為我們成功地應對了本季通貨緊縮的影響，並且現在開始經歷去年通貨緊縮週期的開始。

Our comp sales growth was relatively consistent across all regions of the chain within a range of down 2% to up modestly. The strongest regional performance was in Texahoma due to inventory investments made in big ticket, easier compares, and better overall weather compared to last year. This strength was offset by pressure in the Far West, Midwest, and Commonwealth as the summer heat lingered in the lack of the change of season to fall in these areas.

我們的銷售成長在整個鏈條的所有地區都相對一致，在下降 2% 到小幅成長的範圍內。德州的表現最為強勁，原因是與去年相比，大宗庫存投資、更容易比較以及整體天氣更好。這種力量被遠西部、中西部和聯邦的壓力所抵消，因為這些地區由於缺乏季節變化而夏季炎熱持續。

As to the cadence of the quarter, all months were also in a relatively tight band of essentially plus or minus 1%. Weather was generally a net neutral factor in the third-quarter comparable sales results. Extreme heat persisted throughout the quarter in certain regions with no shift to cooler weather in the northern regions. Hurricane Helene and other storms in the last two weeks of the quarter did not produce net incremental sales to Q3 as any pre-hurricane demand was more than offset by softer volume in the South as a result of heavy rains and continued intense heat in the Far West and Midwest regions. We do believe this created a timing shift that has benefited early Q4 sales.

至於本季的節奏，所有月份也都處於基本正負 1% 的相對狹窄區間。天氣通常是第三季可比較銷售業績的淨中性因素。某些地區整個季度持續出現極端高溫，但北部地區天氣並未轉涼。本季最後兩週的颶風海倫和其他風暴並未為第三季度帶來淨增量銷售，因為任何颶風前的需求都被南方因大雨和遠方持續高溫造成的銷量疲軟所抵消。地區。我們確實相信這創造了一個時間轉變，有利於第四季早期的銷售。

Moving down to our income statement. Our gross margin increased 56 basis points compared to last year. We continue to be very pleased with these results, which were driven primarily by ongoing lower transportation costs, along with disciplined product cost management and the continued execution of an everyday low price strategy. These improvements were partially offset by the mix impact from strong growth in big ticket categories, which have below chain average margins.

轉到我們的損益表。與去年相比，我們的毛利率成長了 56 個基點。我們仍然對這些結果感到非常滿意，這主要是由於運輸成本持續降低、嚴格的產品成本管理以及持續執行日常低價策略所致。這些改善部分被大件品類強勁成長的混合影響所抵消，這些品類的利潤率低於季比平均。

As a percent of net sales, SG&A expenses increased 119 basis points to 27.8%. This increase was primarily attributable to our planned growth investments, which included the onboarding of a new distribution center and higher depreciation and amortization as well as modesty deleverage of our fixed costs, given the decline in comparable store sales. The new DC was approximately a 25-basis-point headwind on SG&A for the quarter. We were also lapping a onetime depreciation expense benefit in the prior year of approximately 35 basis points or $11 million. These factors were partially offset by strong productivity and cost control and, to a lesser extent, a slight benefit from our ongoing sale-leaseback transactions.

SG&A 費用佔淨銷售額的百分比增加了 119 個基點，達到 27.8%。這一增長主要歸因於我們計劃的成長投資，其中包括建立新的配送中心、更高的折舊和攤銷以及鑑於可比商店銷售額下降而對我們的固定成本進行適度的去槓桿化。新的 DC 對本季的 SG&A 造成約 25 個基點的阻力。我們還在前一年獲得了約 35 個基點或 1,100 萬美元的一次性折舊費用收益。這些因素部分被強大的生產力和成本控制所抵消，並且在較小程度上被我們正在進行的售後回租交易帶來的輕微好處所抵消。

For the quarter, operating profit margin was 9.4%. Diluted EPS was $2.24 compared to $2.33 last year, which included an $0.08 benefit from the depreciation change I mentioned earlier.

該季度營業利潤率為 9.4%。稀釋後每股收益為 2.24 美元，去年為 2.33 美元，其中包括我之前提到的折舊變化帶來的 0.08 美元收益。

Turning now to our balance sheet. Merchandise inventories were $3.1 billion at the end of the third quarter, representing an increase of 4.3% in average inventory per store. Last quarter, we shared that we had strategically invested in inventory as we look to improve our in-stock position in CUE and support the strength in our big ticket sales. We effectively controlled our inventory as we reduced our average inventory growth per store by more than 50% sequentially from the second quarter.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。第三季末商品庫存為 31 億美元，每店平均庫存成長 4.3%。上個季度，我們表示，我們對庫存進行了策略性投資，因為我們希望改善 CUE 的庫存狀況並支持我們大宗銷售的實力。我們有效地控制了庫存，每家商店的平均庫存成長率比第二季度連續降低了 50% 以上。

Our inventory levels and in-stock rates are in excellent shape as we enter the fourth quarter. With strong annualized cash flows, we continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet with a leverage ratio of around 2 times. Our announced acquisition of Allivet fits perfectly with our tuck-in M&A strategy and is highly complementary to our business. Given that we have significant financial flexibility, this acquisition will be financed by our balance sheet.

進入第四季度，我們的庫存水準和庫存率處於良好狀態。憑藉強勁的年化現金流，我們持續保持健康的資產負債表，槓桿比率約為2倍。我們宣布收購 Allivet 完全符合我們的併購策略，與我們的業務高度互補。鑑於我們具有很大的財務靈活性，此次收購將由我們的資產負債表提供資金。

Year to date, we have returned more than $760 million of capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Looking ahead, we are updating our fiscal 2024 guidance to raise the lower end of the range on both the top line and earnings. We now anticipate net sales to be in the range of $14.85 billion to $15 billion. We expect comparable store sales to be between flat to up 1%.

今年迄今為止，我們已透過股票回購和股利向股東返還超過 7.6 億美元的資本。展望未來，我們正在更新 2024 財年指引，以提高營收和獲利範圍的下限。我們現在預計淨銷售額將在 148.5 億美元至 150 億美元之間。我們預計可比商店銷售額將持平至成長 1%。

We are forecasting an operating margin rate of 9.8% to 10.1%. Our net income is expected to be between $1.09 billion to $1.12 billion, and we anticipate diluted earnings per share of $10.10 to $10.40 compared to our prior guidance of $10 to $10.40.

我們預期營業利益率為 9.8% 至 10.1%。我們的淨利潤預計在 10.9 億美元至 11.2 億美元之間，稀釋後每股收益預計為 10.10 美元至 10.40 美元，而我們先前的指引為 10 至 10.40 美元。

As I see it today, our outlook for the remainder of the year is appropriately described as right down the middle of the fairway. At this time, we believe that our EPS will more likely be at the midpoint of the range, allowing for a breadth of possibilities that remains quite varied for Q4.

正如我今天所看到的，我們對今年剩餘時間的展望被恰當地描述為正處於正軌之中。目前，我們認為我們的每股盈餘更有可能處於該範圍的中點，從而考慮到第四季度仍然存在很大差異的各種可能性。

As Hal mentioned, the fourth quarter is off to a solid start with the most significant sales weeks of the quarter still ahead of us. We continue to see the quarter having a wider range of potential outcomes on comp sales, given the easier compares while acknowledging that we could see more volatility in consumer spending.

正如哈爾所提到的，第四季已經有了一個良好的開端，該季度最重要的銷售週仍在前方。我們繼續認為本季在比較銷售方面有更廣泛的潛在結果，因為比較更容易，同時承認我們可能會看到消費者支出出現更大的波動。

On the high end of our outlook range, in addition to the easing compares, factors we considered include a more normalized start to winter, lapping net deflation, which began in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the emergency response activity from the recent hurricanes. On the low end of the range, dynamics we contemplated include moderation in big ticket trends, potential consumer uncertainty due to the federal election, and a shorter holiday selling season with five less selling days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

在我們展望範圍的高端，除了寬鬆比較之外，我們考慮的因素還包括冬季開始更加正常化、2023 年第四季開始的淨通縮以及最近颶風的緊急應變活動。在該範圍的低端，我們考慮的動態包括大宗商品趨勢的緩和、聯邦選舉造成的潛在消費者不確定性以及假期銷售季節的縮短（感恩節和聖誕節之間的銷售天數減少 5 天）。

Our outlook on gross margin, SG&A and operating margin remained consistent with past commentary. In the fourth quarter, we'll be lapping our most difficult gross margin comparison with 129 basis points of expansion in the prior year, where we began to see the benefits from lower transportation costs and our product cost management initiative. As to SG&A, we anticipate better performance than in the third quarter given our comp sales outlook. We continue to forecast the return of capital to our shareholders in the range of $1 billion reflecting the strength of our cash flow and the confidence we have in the long term.

我們對毛利率、SG&A 和營業利潤率的展望與過去的評論保持一致。在第四季度，我們將經歷最困難的毛利率與上一年擴張 129 個基點的比較，我們開始看到較低的運輸成本和我們的產品成本管理計劃帶來的好處。至於銷售、管理費用（SG&A），鑑於我們的銷售前景，我們預計第三季的業績將優於第三季。我們繼續預測股東的資本回報將在 10 億美元左右，這反映了我們的現金流實力和我們對長期的信心。

In conclusion, we are confident in our ability to deliver on our financial outlook for the year. At Tractor Supply, our philosophy is to stay on offense and remain proactive. We're enthusiastic about the progress of our Life Out Here strategy, maintaining our industry leadership, and expanding our legacy of generating long-term value for our shareholders. Now I will turn the call back over to Hal to wrap up.

總之，我們對實現今年的財務前景的能力充滿信心。在 Tractor Supply，我們的理念是保持進攻並保持積極。我們對 Life Out Here 策略的進展充滿熱情，保持我們的行業領先地位，並擴大我們為股東創造長期價值的傳統。現在我將把電話轉回哈爾來結束。

Thank you, Kurt. I continue to believe that the structural backdrop remains very attractive for Tractor Supply. We participate in a large, attractive, fragmented, and growing market. We're a consistent share gainer and have numerous tailwinds, including our Life Out Here strategic initiatives, our market being a beneficiary of continued net rural migration, and high-return new store growth opportunities.

謝謝你，庫爾特。我仍然相信結構性背景對拖拉機供應仍然非常有吸引力。我們參與的是一個龐大、有吸引力、分散且不斷成長的市場。我們的市場份額持續成長，並擁有眾多有利因素，包括我們的 Life Out Here 策略舉措、我們的市場是持續的農村淨移民的受益者，以及高回報的新店成長機會。

Short term and long term, Tractor Supply is extremely well positioned as the leader in Life Out Here. As we look to close the always important fourth quarter, we have exciting plans in place to drive sales. We're in the midst of launching our first Hometown Heroes days, veterans and first responders over-index in our communities, and Tractor Supply is uniquely positioned to celebrate those who keep us safe and make Life Out Here possible. The event starts on Saturday with a chain-wide event with our stores hosting their community to interact with fire trucks, K9 units and ambulances as well as food trucks and local farmer markets.

從短期和長期來看，Tractor Supply 都處於非常有利的位置，成為 Life Out Here 的領導者。當我們期待結束始終重要的第四季時，我們制定了令人興奮的計劃來推動銷售。我們正在啟動第一個家鄉英雄日，退伍軍人和急救人員在我們的社區中指數超標，拖拉機供應公司具有獨特的地位來慶祝那些保護我們安全並使這裡的生活成為可能的人。活動從週六開始，我們的商店將舉辦一場全連鎖活動，舉辦社區活動，與消防車、K9 單位和救護車以及食品卡車和當地農貿市場進行互動。

Over the two weeks, we will be offering special promotions to our hometown heroes, including 10% off on First Responders Day and Veterans Day. Hometown Heroes Day is the perfect way to drive excitement for this program and for Neighbor's Club more broadly. This is a unique event, which will further support and strengthen this important customer segment's shopping affinity with Tractor Supply and is a great way for us to get back to them.

在這兩週內，我們將為家鄉英雄提供特別促銷活動，包括急救人員日和退伍軍人日 10% 的折扣。家鄉英雄日是激發該計劃以及更廣泛的鄰居俱樂部興奮的完美方式。這是一個獨特的活動，將進一步支持和加強這個重要客戶群與 Tractor Supply 的購物親和力，也是我們回饋他們的好方法。

We have an exceptional lineup of innovative and new products as well as enticing values and fresh offerings for the fourth quarter. In big ticket, highlights include Massimo golf carts, Liberty Safes, Tactacam cameras, Even Ember patio heaters and Blackstone Grills.

我們在第四季擁有一系列卓越的創新產品和新產品，以及誘人的價值和新鮮產品。大件商品中的亮點包括 Massimo 高爾夫球車、Liberty Safes、Tactacam 攝影機、Even Ember 露台加熱器和 Blackstone Grills。

In our CUE business, we're expanding our cat food assortment, testing new items such as freeze-dried snacks, adding exclusive SKUs in Nutrena Triumph equine feed, and launching exclusive brand extensions such as 4health shreds. In tools, we're offering notable deals across our tool shop event on brands such as DeWALT and PORTER-CABLE and introduced new tailgating truck boxes just in time for the outdoor season.

在我們的 CUE 業務中，我們正在擴大貓糧品種，測試凍乾零食等新產品，在 Nutrena Triumph 馬飼料中添加獨家 SKU，並推出 4health 碎片等獨家品牌延伸。在工具方面，我們在工具店活動中為 DeWALT 和 PORTER-CABLE 等品牌提供了引人注目的優惠，並在戶外季節推出了新的尾隨卡車箱。

Our garden centers will be transformed to a winter wonderland with live Christmas trees, poinsettias, wreaths, and tractorized seasonal decor. And while the holiday merchandising is fun and brings great retail theater to our stores, what is most important in the fourth quarter to driving our business is the weather.

我們的花園中心將變成一個冬季仙境，裡面有活生生的聖誕樹、一品紅、花圈和拖拉機化的季節性裝飾。雖然假日行銷很有趣，並為我們的商店帶來了精彩的零售劇場，但第四季度推動我們業務發展的最重要因素是天氣。

And so to this year, as always, we'll be offering our customers all the things they need to weather the winter including log splitters, snow throwers, chainsaws and more. And if and when the winter comes, our customers know they can count on us for these critical supplies to get through the winter as well as products like propane and alternative heating sources. With strong inventory levels, we're committed to being the dependable supplier for life out here. Our stores are well stocked with the key products our customers depend on for their home and maintenance needs in the winter months.

因此，今年，我們將一如既往地為客戶提供他們度過冬季所需的所有物品，包括劈木機、拋雪機、鏈鋸等。如果冬天來臨時，我們的客戶知道他們可以依靠我們提供這些關鍵供應品以及丙烷和替代熱源等產品來度過冬天。憑藉強大的庫存水平，我們致力於成為這裡終身值得信賴的供應商。我們的商店備有充足的關鍵產品庫存，以滿足客戶冬季的家居和維護需求。

I hope you get a chance to get in our stores this season to see firsthand the great merchandising initiatives we have in place. As I mentioned earlier, please mark the calendar for our investment community today to be held on the afternoon of Thursday, December 5. The team is excited to share our growth strategy for the back half of the decade. We're confident in our ability to navigate the challenges and seize the significant opportunities we see ahead. And with that, let's open the call for questions.

我希望您有機會在這個季節進入我們的商店，親眼目睹我們所實施的出色的行銷計劃。正如我之前提到的，請標記我們今天投資界將於 12 月 5 日星期四下午舉行的日曆。團隊很高興與大家分享我們在這十年後半段的成長策略。我們對應對挑戰並抓住未來重大機會的能力充滿信心。接下來，讓我們開始提問。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Zach Fadem, Wells Fargo.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員說明）Zach Fadem，富國銀行。

Hey, good morning. So now that about 25% of your stores have lawn and garden centers and roughly half of your stores are converted to Fusion, curious if that historical mid-single-digit lift for the combination is still holding in this environment, which, if it is, it would mean about 150 basis points to the comp, if that's right. And then how should we think about the outlook for lawn and garden fusion and any other store initiatives that you have planned for '25?

嘿，早安。因此，現在大約 25% 的商店擁有草坪和花園中心，並且大約一半的商店已轉換為 Fusion，很好奇該組合的歷史中個位數提升是否仍然在這種環境中保持，如果是的話，如果這是正確的話，這意味著該公司的股價將上漲約150 個基點。那麼我們應該如何考慮草坪和花園融合的前景以及您為 25 年計劃的任何其他商店計劃？

Zach, it's Hal Lawton, and good morning, and thanks for joining us on the call. Yeah, great milestone for us that we've reached with over 1,000 stores now in our Fusion format and 500 stores in our garden center format over 500 stores. You think back to where we were in August of -- I mean, October of 2020 when we had zero of each, so come a long way in a short amount of time.

扎克，我是哈爾·勞頓，早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。是的，這對我們來說是一個偉大的里程碑，我們現在已經擁有超過 1,000 家採用 Fusion 格式的商店和 500 家採用花園中心格式的商店（超過 500 家商店）。你回想一下我們在 2020 年 8 月的情況——我的意思是 2020 年 10 月，當時我們的數據都是零，所以在很短的時間內取得了長足的進步。

As we look forward, we feel good both about the pace that we're doing on our remodel program, which is between 175 and 225 stores a year. We've been consistently running at that pace the last couple of years. Of course, all new stores are built with the Fusion concept. And then between half and three quarters of the stores just depending on a variety of factors are receiving the garden center -- a bit more on the new stores because we have a little more control of the setup, but the same on existing store remodels as well.

展望未來，我們對改造計畫的進度感到滿意，該計畫每年開設 175 至 225 家商店。過去幾年我們一直以這個速度運行。當然，所有新店都是採用 Fusion 概念建造的。然後，一半到四分之三的商店將根據各種因素接收花園中心——新商店的數量更多，因為我們對設置有更多的控制權，但現有商店的改造也是如此出色地。

And then yes, we are continuing to be very pleased with the performance of Fusion. Those stores do continue to outpace the broader chain. Additionally, they continue to have higher customer scores on key areas of things like store environment, clean and uncluttered, those sorts of things. They also tend to have a higher female as well as younger shopper base as well. So all the both quant and qual metrics that we've shared historically on fusion continue to occur.

是的，我們仍然對 Fusion 的表現感到非常滿意。這些商店的發展速度確實繼續超過了更廣泛的連鎖店。此外，他們在商店環境、乾淨整潔等關鍵方面繼續獲得更高的客戶評分。他們也往往擁有較高的女性和年輕購物者基礎。因此，我們歷史上分享的所有有關融合的定量和定性指標都將繼續發生。

And we continue to be very pleased with the Garden Center business. While it's been a couple of years now of tougher spring, summer weather, we continue to have strong performance in live goods as we talked about as well as all the other ancillary products that go around it. And then this year, we'll be using, as I talked about in our prepared remarks, the Fusion setup even to bring even a heightened and more well-done fall execution as well as winter wonderland execution. So all in all, a very good progress.

我們仍然對花園中心業務感到非常滿意。雖然春夏天氣已經過去幾年，但我們在直播商品以及與之相關的所有其他輔助產品方面仍然表現強勁。今年，正如我在準備好的演講中談到的那樣，我們將使用 Fusion 設置，甚至帶來更出色、更出色的秋季執行以及冬季仙境執行。總而言之，這是一個非常好的進步。

And just to wrap it up, in my prepared remarks, I talked about the farm and ranch channel being negative in the kind of low to kind of mid-single digits, call it, a minus 2%, minus 3%, maybe minus 4%. And you look at our overall growth of 1.6% and would point to many of our competitive advantages and strategic initiatives that we've been investing in is the reasons for that share gain. And one of the important ones is Fusion as we just went through the numbers.

總結一下，在我準備好的發言中，我談到了農場和牧場渠道的負值，處於低到中個位數的水平，稱之為負 2%、負 3%，也許是負 4 %。你看看我們 1.6% 的整體成長率，就會發現我們的許多競爭優勢和我們一直投資的策略舉措是份額成長的原因。其中重要的因素之一是融合，因為我們剛剛查看了這些數字。

So I think Fusion is doing well. It's a major contributor to our share gain, and we're excited to continue the initiatives we turn into the back half of the decade.

所以我認為 Fusion 做得很好。這是我們份額成長的主要貢獻者，我們很高興能夠在本世紀後半段繼續實施我們的舉措。

Chris Horvers, JPMorgan.

克里斯霍弗斯，摩根大通。

Thanks and good morning. So I just wanted to talk about the weather and the storms. So can you talk about what the storms have done for your business so far and sort of what's embedded into the balance of the quarter? It seems like you're targeting about a roughly 2% comp in the fourth quarter. And then on the -- just on the margin front, you start to lap the transportation cost tailwinds, as you talked about. Does the emergency response create some headwinds in gross margin that we should think about in the fourth quarter? And does that DC headwind go away in SG&A? Thank you.

謝謝，早安。所以我只想談談天氣和風暴。那麼，您能否談談到目前為止，風暴對您的業務造成了哪些影響，以及本季餘額中的哪些內容？看來您的目標是第四季大約 2% 的補償。然後，正如您所說，就在利潤方面，您開始順應運輸成本。緊急應變是否會對毛利率造成一些我們應該在第四季考慮的阻力？SG&A 中的 DC 逆風會消失嗎？謝謝。

Hey, Chris, it's Kurt. In regards to -- I would take notes on what I think there's about three points in there. There is the question on the storms. There's a question in regards to the margin on DC headwinds and -- or DC benefit and when does that turn in the emerging response. So let me just try to hit those things.

嘿，克里斯，我是庫爾特。關於——我會記下我認為其中大約三點的內容。有一個關於風暴的問題。有一個問題是關於華盛頓特區的逆風和——或華盛頓特區的好處的邊際，以及這種情況何時會出現在新興的應對措施中。所以讓我嘗試去擊中那些東西。

In regards to the weather, I'll just mention Q3 first, as I had mentioned some of that in prepared remarks. Leading up until about mid-September, just as an example, the business was running at a slight positive comp sales trend -- and in the back two weeks, while we did see benefit like in emergency response from generators and others at the front end of Hurricane Helene because that's one of those storms that really straddles both quarters.

關於天氣，我首先提到第三季度，因為我在準備好的發言中已經提到了其中的一些內容。舉個例子，直到 9 月中旬左右，該業務都以略微積極的銷售趨勢運行 - 在後兩週，雖然我們確實看到了來自發電機和其他前端的緊急響應等好處颶風海倫，因為這是真正橫跨兩個地區的風暴之一。

It was offset or more than offset by -- in that particular storm across most of the south and southeast just blanketed with storms. And so that dampened a bit of the overall traffic in the last week or two of September. As I mentioned, I see that more as a positive because that just deferred some of the demand on the business.

它被抵消了，甚至超過了被風暴覆蓋的南部和東南部大部分地區的特殊風暴。因此，這對 9 月最後一周或兩週的整體流量有所抑制。正如我所提到的，我認為這更多是積極的，因為這只是推遲了一些業務需求。

So both Helen and Milton have had net for the full year and Q4, a benefit to us. We'll have -- we have so many of the important weeks ahead of us. I won't quantify exactly what we expect from these storms. But generally, hurricanes have a modest level of benefit on each hurricane, and we anticipate that for Q4.

因此，海倫和米爾頓在全年和第四季度都有淨收入，這對我們來說是有利的。我們將面臨許多重要的幾週。我不會準確量化我們對這些風暴的預期。但總的來說，每次颶風都會帶來一定程度的好處，我們預期第四季也是如此。

Emergency Response has a mixture of product. Some of the bigger ticket generators lower, but has a mix of higher margins. So we do not anticipate the storms emergency response really having a impact on margin in the fourth quarter. And yes, the distribution center been -- a headwind to SG&A in 2024 does start to cycle out as you'd get about 9 to 12 months out. It really takes about that much time to be able to even out the inventory and be able to have the other distribution centers have a productivity offset to it. So we'll share more information on 2025 in regards to that in our January call.

緊急應變有多種產品。一些較大的門票產生者的利潤較低，但利潤率較高。因此，我們預期風暴緊急應變不會真正對第四季的利潤率產生影響。是的，配送中心 - 2024 年 SG&A 的逆風確實開始循環，因為你需要大約 9 到 12 個月的時間。確實需要花費很多時間才能平衡庫存並能夠讓其他配送中心的生產力抵消它。因此，我們將在 1 月的電話會議中分享有關 2025 年的更多資訊。

Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett Research Advisors.

查克‧格羅姆 (Chuck Grom)，戈登‧哈斯克特 (Gordon Haskett) 研究顧問。

Hey, good morning. Thanks very much, guys. In the past on your third-quarter calls, you've provided some early framework for the out year in terms of store count margin, puts and takes, et cetera. Is there anything we should be mindful of as we build out our models for next year? And then along those lines, you have a long-term comp algo of 4% to 5%. I'm sure you don't want to underline getting to that next year. But can we think about the puts and takes over the next 12 to 18 months on the comp front? Thank you.

嘿，早安。非常感謝，夥計們。在過去的第三季電話會議中，您在商店數量利潤率、賣出和賣出等方面提供了一些今年的早期框架。在建立明年的模型時，我們應該注意什麼？然後沿著這些思路，你就有了 4% 到 5% 的長期補償演算法。我確信您不想強調明年的目標。但我們能否考慮一下未來 12 到 18 個月的補償方面的看跌期權和接管情況？謝謝。

Hey, Chuck, good morning. I think on the -- two things I'd say as it relates to looking out into next year and beyond. One, I think we've got a very clear recipe of how we're operating our business right now in terms of this year, we increased from 70 new stores to 80 new stores, and we've talked about how we're moving to 90 new stores next year. And that is the recipe that we're planning on. We have an exciting portfolio of high return new store opportunities out there. We've been challenged by many of our investors to go capture that value sooner. And we're kind of moving in that direction.

嘿，查克，早安。我認為，我想說的兩件事與展望明年及以後的情況有關。第一，我認為我們對於今年如何經營我們的業務有一個非常明確的方案，我們從 70 家新店增加到 80 家新店，並且我們已經討論瞭如何搬遷明年將開設 90 家新店。這就是我們正在計劃的食譜。我們擁有令人興奮的高回報新店機會組合。我們的許多投資者都向我們提出挑戰，要求我們盡快獲得這項價值。我們正朝著這個方向前進。

We talked earlier about our consistent remodel approach somewhere between 175 and 220 stores a year. If you think about that, it kind of -- the average of that at 200 with 2,300 stores roughly right now. That means about every 10 years, we're remodeling a store, which is, I think, a nice healthy run rate for a retailer.

我們之前談到我們每年對 175 至 220 家商店進行持續改造。如果你仔細想想，現在大約有 200 家商店和 2,300 家商店的平均水平。這意味著大約每十年我們就會改造一家商店，我認為這對零售商來說是一個很好的健康運作率。

And other than that, there's no real outliers on how we're thinking about the business as we turn into next year. As it relates to our long-term comp algorithm, I'd point to the same commentary we had on the last call, which is we look to return to that as quickly as possible. And the two major factors impacting our doing so is inflation, deflation, and consumer spending nominally between services and goods.

除此之外，我們對明年業務的看法並沒有真正的異常值。由於它與我們的長期補償演算法有關，我想指出我們在上次電話會議上的相同評論，即我們希望盡快回到這一點。影響我們這樣做的兩個主要因素是通貨膨脹、通貨緊縮以及名義上服務和商品之間的消費者支出。

If you look at deflation, inflation, Kurt had some comments on that earlier. We start to lap some of that around now, and we'll continue to lap that over the next six to nine months and then start to really be through that cycle. And if we all look at the low price for corn, it was really middle of this year. And we would -- but we also had the big dip down that we took last year starting in October.

如果你看看通貨緊縮和通貨膨脹，庫爾特早些時候對此發表了一些評論。我們現在開始進行其中的一些工作，我們將在接下來的六到九個月內繼續進行這些工作，然後開始真正經歷這個週期。如果我們都看看玉米的低價，那確實是今年年中的時候。我們會——但我們也經歷了去年十月開始的大幅下跌。

And then on goods and services, the consumer continues to have to shift a number of -- a good bit of their spend into services right now. If you look at whether it's rent, insurance costs, those sorts of things. I mean, services continues to outpace the spend on goods somewhere in the range of 6 to 7 points versus, say, 1 to 2 points on goods. And you can see that kind of correspondingly into retail sales. And as I talked about in the call, we think retail sales were slightly positive in the 1%-ish, 1.5% range for Q3, our fiscal Q3. And our sales were right in line, if not slightly above that at the 1.6% range. So that's kind of how we see the macro environment shaping up right now and what we see as we turn the corner to 2025.

然後在商品和服務方面，消費者現在仍然必須將大部分支出轉移到服務上。如果你看看房租、保險費用等等。我的意思是，服務支出持續超過商品支出 6 到 7 個百分點，而商品支出則超過 1 到 2 個百分點。你可以在零售銷售中看到這種情況。正如我在電話中談到的，我們認為第三季（我們的第三財季）零售額在 1% 左右、1.5% 的範圍內略有增長。我們的銷售額即使不是略高於 1.6% 的範圍，也完全符合預期。這就是我們對目前正在形成的宏觀環境的看法，以及我們在 2025 年即將到來時所看到的情況。

Karen Short, Melius Research.

凱倫·肖特，Melius 研究公司。

Hi, thanks. Great to talk to you again, and I look forward to seeing you in December. So my question is looking at 4Q, when you look at the range of outcomes on sales and gross profit dollars and gross margins, it's pretty wide. So wondering if you could address that.

你好，謝謝。很高興再次與您交談，我期待在十二月見到您。所以我的問題是看第四季度，當你看看銷售額、毛利和毛利率的結果範圍時，你會發現它相當廣泛。所以想知道你是否可以解決這個問題。

And then also looking to -- so and commenting on more specifically puts and takes on 4Q on gross margins and SG&A. But then wanted to address more specifically the longer-term algo and when you think you can return to that. And I assume you'll address that at the Analyst Day, but any preliminary comments would be great.

然後還希望對第四季度的毛利率和銷售管理費用（SG&A）進行更具體的看跌期權和承購評論。但後來想更具體地解決長期演算法，當你認為你可以回到這個問題。我想你會在分析師日討論這個問題，但任何初步評論都會很好。

Yeah. Hey, Karen, on the long-term algo, maybe hit that one first. Very much, as I've said just a moment ago, look forward to getting back to our long-term algo. We don't see any internal issues in terms of returning to our long-term algo. Our market continues to be incredibly favorable in terms of just the overall optics of our market, the strength of our markets, attracting the server markets.

是的。嘿，凱倫，從長期演算法來看，也許先解決這個問題。正如我剛才所說，非常期待回到我們的長期演算法。在回歸長期演算法方面，我們沒有看到任何內部問題。就我們市場的整體情況、市場實力以及對伺服器市場的吸引力而言，我們的市場仍然非常有利。

Our position and competitive differentiation in the market is as strong as it's ever been. We think the combination of those two absolutely in normal operating kind of circumstances lead to our long-term algo. We're very confident in our ability to return to that long-term algo. And the two main things that we're watching in the context of returning to that are, as I mentioned earlier, the goods to services split on overall consumer expenditures. And then two, how inflation, deflation plays out and then that plays into our average ticket.

我們在市場中的地位和競爭優勢一如既往地強大。我們認為，在正常運作情況下，這兩者的結合絕對會導致我們的長期演算法。我們對回歸長期演算法的能力非常有信心。正如我之前提到的，我們在回歸的背景下關注的兩個主要事情是，商品與服務在整體消費者支出上的分配。第二，通貨膨脹、通貨緊縮如何發揮作用，然後影響我們的平均票價。

As we talked about in the past, our recipe is really a 50% growth based on average ticket, 50% growth based on comp transactions. The goods to services shift is much more about a transactions-type headwind and then the inflation, deflation, obviously, being an average ticket headwind. We do see the pressure or the headwinds on both of those dissipitating into 2025. I think the question is to what degree and over what period of time to '25. And we will share more of that, a little bit of that in our Investor Day. And then certainly, you'll hear our perspective on that in our Q4 earnings call.

正如我們過去談到的，我們的秘訣實際上是基於平均門票增長 50%，基於補償交易增長 50%。商品向服務的轉變更多的是交易類型的逆風，然後是通貨膨脹、通貨緊縮，顯然，這是一種平均的逆風。我們確實看到這兩方面的壓力或阻力會在 2025 年消散。我認為問題在於到什麼程度以及在什麼時間段內到'25。我們將在投資者日分享更多、一些內容。當然，您會在第四季的財報電話會議中聽到我們對此的看法。

As it relates to the range of outcomes and sales in Q4, I'll address that and then Kurt can speak to some of the gross margin ins and outs. But on the range of sales, I'd start with in the month of October has played out much like what we expected with the one addition being the hurricanes that Kurt talked about previously. Those will provide a modest benefit to Q4. As Kurt shared in the past, we've seen maybe 20, 30 basis points of benefit for a hurricane of those sizes. And I think something to that effect is what's in our guidance in Q4.

由於它與第四季度的結果和銷售範圍有關，我將解決這個問題，然後庫爾特可以談論一些毛利率的細節。但就銷售範圍而言，我從 10 月開始的銷售情況與我們的預期非常相似，其中一個補充是庫爾特之前談到的颶風。這些將為第四季度帶來適度的好處。正如庫爾特過去分享的那樣，我們已經看到這種規模的颶風可能會帶來 20 到 30 個基點的好處。我認為我們在第四季的指導中就包含了與此相關的內容。

The other major things that are going to play into Q4, one is going to be weather. And it needs to get cold for our business to really perform well in Q4. We sold a lot of heating pellets. We sold a lot of heating fire places. We sold a lot of insulated outerwear and a lot of other products in our business that are cold weather related. We've had about a week, 1.5 weeks of cold weather this quarter so far. When that hit, it was very good. It's now probably -- if everybody can think about where they're sitting right now, it's very warm right now. And so by consequence, people are buying heating and insulated outerwear. So we've had a bit of a mix in October, and that's typically what you can expect in October.

第四季將發揮作用的其他主要因素是天氣。我們的業務需要降溫才能在第四季真正表現良好。我們賣了很多加熱顆粒。我們賣了很多取暖壁爐。我們在我們的業務中銷售了大量保暖外套和許多其他與寒冷天氣相關的產品。到目前為止，本季我們已經經歷了大約一週、1.5 週的寒冷天氣。當那個擊中時，效果非常好。現在可能——如果每個人都能想想他們現在坐在哪裡，現在就很溫暖。因此，人們開始購買暖氣和隔熱外套。因此，我們在 10 月進行了一些混合，這通常是您在 10 月可以期待的。

As you look forward into the last two months, it really comes down to the continuation of cold weather. Do we get in November? Do we get it in December. Last year, we got cold weather in neither month.

當你展望過去兩個月時，這實際上取決於寒冷天氣的持續。我們11月能到嗎？12月份我們能拿到嗎？去年，我們每個月都沒有寒冷的天氣。

The second comes down to holiday shopping. We've got five less days this year. Historically, customers have been able to compress for the most part. But the question will be just how does the calendar play out this year? And does that occur? Also, with Christmas being on a Wednesday, you've got a unique setup where online is able to play much more strongly on that final super weekend than it has in the past.

第二個是假日購物。今年我們的日子少了五天。從歷史上看，客戶大部分都能夠進行壓縮。但問題是今年的行事曆如何進行？那會發生嗎？此外，由於聖誕節是在星期三，因此您有一個獨特的設置，在線可以在最後一個超級週末比過去更強大地發揮作用。

And then, of course, you've got the federal election. And we do expect that consumer spending leading up to the federal election will be dampened both just with distraction as well as a little bit of just wait-and-see mode. And so then you've got to see how does that pick back up.

然後，當然，還有聯邦選舉。我們確實預計，聯邦大選前的消費者支出將因分心和觀望模式而受到抑制。所以你必須看看這種情況如何恢復。

But at the end of the day, as I said on my prepared remarks, while the holiday sales are important to our business, the make or break for our business is how we support our customers with what their needs are, particularly during the cooler weather season. So that's what most will be most indicative of our sales in Q4. And I'll turn it over to Kurt for some comments on margin.

但歸根結底，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，雖然假日銷售對我們的業務很重要，但我們業務的成敗在於我們如何支持客戶滿足他們的需求，特別是在涼爽的天氣期間。這就是我們第四季銷售額的最能反映的情況。我會將其交給庫爾特（Kurt）徵求一些關於保證金的評論。

Yeah, Karen, here's how we look at the gross margin and the SG&A in the fourth quarter. And I'd start by saying the all year, the business has been remarkably consistent. And so I'll refer to Q4 versus some of the highlights of Q3. We had 56 basis points of benefit in Q3 as it was really the last quarter before we start to lap the significant benefit we started to see last year and fourth quarter on both transportation and our cost savings -- our cost-cutting initiatives.

是的，凱倫，這是我們對第四季毛利率和銷售、一般管理費用的看法。首先我要說的是，全年業務一直非常穩定。因此，我將參考第四季與第三季的一些亮點。我們在第三季度獲得了56 個基點的收益，因為這實際上是我們開始享受去年和第四季度在運輸和成本節約（我們的成本削減計劃）方面開始看到的顯著收益之前的最後一個季度。

And so we'll have only a modest level of benefit remaining on transportation and cost in fourth quarter that will, for the most part, likely be offset by product mix. So gross margin is relatively, give or take, a bit more flattish year over year in Q4.

因此，第四季度我們在運輸和成本方面將僅獲得少量收益，而這在很大程度上可能會被產品組合所抵消。因此，第四季的毛利率與去年同期相比，或多或少有些持平。

And then on the SG&A side, the -- a lot of the puts and takes are similar other than in Q3, we were cycling 35 basis points benefit of a one-time depreciation. In Q4, we'll still have roughly 20, 25 basis points of pressure on the new distribution center. We anticipate a little bit more leverage on the comp sales as we anticipate positive comp sales for the fourth quarter. So you really see yourself moving in that -- in about a 50, 60, 65 basis points of pressure from SG&A in the fourth quarter as it's -- it does not have as much of the one-times as, say, Q3 does. So net, that does put operating margin in an unfavorable decline from year over year, but that's always been in our expectations for fourth quarter as we were lapping the strongest performance year over year.

然後在SG&A方面，除了第三季之外，許多看跌期權和看跌期權都是相似的，我們從一次性貶值中受益了35個基點。在第四季度，我們的新配送中心仍將面臨約 20、25 個基點的壓力。我們預期第四季的同業銷售將呈正數，因此我們預期同業銷售的槓桿作用會更大一些。因此，你確實看到自己正在採取行動——第四季度的 SG&A 壓力大約有 50、60、65 個基點——它沒有像第三季度那樣多的一次性壓力。因此，淨額確實使營業利潤率同比出現不利下降，但這一直在我們對第四季度的預期中，因為我們同比表現最強勁。

Thank you. Hopefully, you just bring women's wranglers to your stores.

謝謝。希望您能將女性牧馬人帶到您的商店。

We'll make a note of that.

我們會記下這一點。

Michael Lasser, UBS.

麥可拉瑟，瑞銀集團。

Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. My question is how one of the key debates is can Tractor Supply get back to the historic levels of 1% to 2% growth in traffic. It seems like what you're suggesting is the ability to get back to that level of traffic growth on a consistent basis is going to be macro dependent where it will be influenced by the shift from services to good.

早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。我的問題是，關鍵爭論之一是拖拉機供應公司如何恢復到交通量成長 1% 至 2% 的歷史水準。看來您所建議的是，能否持續恢復到流量成長水準將取決於宏觀因素，而這將受到從服務到商品的轉變的影響。

Yet Tractor being a more needs-based retailer that has more consistent trends in areas like consumables, CUE, have held up relatively well. So what specifically do you see as influencing the assortment or category performance that will improve in a more robust economic environment, more robust retail environment to drive that traffic growth? And as you see a little bit less gross margin expansion because of some of the drivers from this year stayed, would you be willing to sacrifice some gross margin in order to drive the traffic growth? Thank you very much.

然而，Tractor 作為一家更以需求為基礎的零售商，在消耗品、CUE 等領域擁有更一致的趨勢，表現相對較好。那麼，您認為具體是什麼因素會影響品類或類別的表現，從而在更強勁的經濟環境、更強勁的零售環境中改善，從而推動流量成長？由於今年的一些驅動因素留下來，您看到毛利率擴張有所減少，您是否願意犧牲一些毛利率來推動流量成長？非常感謝。

Hey, Michael, thanks for the question. First of all, if I -- maybe I'll just step back. If I look at our growth over the last five years, post-COVID, which I think is the second highest in all of retail -- major retailers out there, the key to that has been strength in both average ticket and comp transactions. So it's not -- comp transaction growth has not only been a highlight of Tractor Supply for the last 30 years, 20 years, but also in the last five. And I would say, of most retailers out there, we're one of the few that have been -- that have strong positive, like double-digit positive comp transaction growth over a multi five-year period. So I'd put our transaction growth over the last five years up against anyone.

嘿，邁克爾，謝謝你的提問。首先，如果我——也許我會退後一步。如果我看看我們過去五年的成長，即新冠疫情之後的成長，我認為這是所有零售業（主要零售商）中第二高的成長，其中的關鍵是平均門票和補償交易的強勁。所以事實並非如此——可比交易成長不僅是 Tractor Supply 在過去 30 年、20 年，而且在過去 5 年的一大亮點。我想說的是，在大多數零售商中，我們是少數幾個在五年內保持強勁積極勢頭的零售商之一，例如兩位數的正補償交易增長。因此，我認為我們過去五年的交易成長可以與任何其他公司媲美。

Second of all, I think if you look at retail right now, overall transaction growth in retail is either flat to negative in general right now. And so when you look at our modestly positive comp transactions, you combine that with overall transactions given our new store growth -- at our comp transactions, I would argue we're in the top quartile right now of retail in terms of overall transactions. So I look at -- I'm very pleased with how we've grown our transaction on the last five years, how we've held those transactions and even in the context of this environment that we're in, how were modestly positive comping transactions and then with our new stores having strong couple of points of transaction growth.

其次，我認為如果你現在看看零售業，零售業的整體交易成長目前要么持平，要么為負。因此，當您查看我們適度積極的補償交易時，您可以將其與考慮到我們新店增長的總體交易結合起來- 在我們的補償交易中，我認為就整體交易而言，我們目前處於零售業的前四分之一。因此，我對過去五年中我們的交易成長方式、我們如何進行這些交易以及即使在我們所處的環境背景下如何保持適度積極的態度感到非常滿意比較交易，然後我們的新店有兩個強勁的交易增長點。

And then as I look forward, I think it really does all come down to the goods to services shift and then our customers having a little bit more money to spend on items in our stores. And that's going to make its way into that extra half of transaction a year to them, and it's also going to make its way a little bit into the units per transaction.

然後，當我展望未來時，我認為這確實歸結為商品向服務的轉變，然後我們的顧客有更多的錢可以花在我們商店的商品上​​。這將影響到他們每年額外的一半交易量，也將影響到每筆交易的單位數。

But I think what we're seeing on our comp transactions being muted a bit is very comparable to what's happening in all the rest of retail. And I certainly believe as retail moderates back to its normal levels, rising tides will lift all boats. And those of us that continue to have positive comp transactions will continue to see stronger positive comp transactions as that occurs. Anyway, I'll just leave it at that. Thanks, Michael.

但我認為我們所看到的比較交易的減弱與其他零售業發生的情況非常相似。我當然相信，隨著零售業恢復到正常水平，上漲的潮水將使所有船隻都升起。當這種情況發生時，我們這些繼續進行積極補償交易的人將繼續看到更強勁的積極補償交易。無論如何，我就這樣吧。謝謝，麥可。

Steven Forbes, Guggenheim Partners.

史蒂文‧福布斯，古根漢合夥人。

Good morning. This is Julio Marquez on for Steve. Hal, curious if you could expand on how the 37 million Neighbor's Club members informed the decision to acquire Allivet. I guess how many Neighbor's Clubs we use an online solution for the pet pharmacy needs? And any other color you can help contextualize the opportunity there would be great. Thank you.

早安.這是史蒂夫的胡里奧·馬爾克斯。Hal，您是否可以詳細說明一下 3700 萬鄰居俱樂部會員是如何告知收購 Allivet 的決定的。我想我們有多少個鄰居俱樂部使用線上解決方案來滿足寵物藥局的需求？任何其他顏色可以幫助你了解那裡的機會，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks. We are really excited about the acquisition of Allivet. I think it's a great example of kind of a tuck-in acquisition. They've been a partner to us for a few years now as our pet Rx provider. What we've observed over those few years has been best-in-class in terms of both their nationwide prescription licensing capabilities, their distribution centers, and their ability to get products shipped out in 24 hours, their ability to get prescriptions approved and partner with the veterinarians, their excellent website, their strong management team, and importantly, also excellent financial condition.

是的，謝謝。我們對收購 Allivet 感到非常興奮。我認為這是一種隱藏式收購的一個很好的例子。作為我們的寵物處方藥提供者，他們已經成為我們的合作夥伴幾年了。我們這幾年觀察到，他們的全國處方許可能力、配送中心、24 小時內發貨的能力、獲得處方批准和合作夥伴的能力都是一流的獸醫、優秀的網站、強大的管理團隊，重要的是，還有良好的財務狀況。

So we feel all around. It's a great business, one that we're excited and thrilled to welcome into the Tractor Supply family. And we look forward to bringing that feature of a low-cost affordable wide array of prescriptions for pets and animals to our customers. As you said, we have 37 million-plus members of our Neighbor's Club program. It's a highly engaged membership program, one that we continue to add value in, and our customers continue to further and further become loyal around.

所以我們感覺周圍都有。這是一項很棒的業務，我們非常高興和興奮地歡迎它加入 Tractor Supply 大家庭。我們期待為我們的客戶帶來一系列低成本、實惠的寵物和動物處方。正如您所說，我們的鄰居俱樂部計劃擁有超過 3700 萬會員。這是一項高度參與的會員計劃，我們不斷為其增值，我們的客戶也不斷變得越來越忠誠。

And we think the combination of Allivet with our Neighbor's Club is going to just be a great mix. And we look forward to over the next few years getting the deal done approved, closed, and then starting to bring that to our Neighbor's Club members in the ways that we've brought the additional features and benefits that we have to them. And very excited about it and more to come at our Investment Community Day on that topic on December 5.

我們認為 Allivet 與我們 Neighbor's Club 的結合將是一個偉大的組合。我們期待在未來幾年內獲得批准、完成交易，然後開始以我們為鄰居俱樂部會員帶來的額外功能和優勢的方式提供給他們。我們對此感到非常興奮，我們將在 12 月 5 日的投資社群日就該主題推出更多內容。

Great. And just a quick follow-up. Kurt, totally got two years of flattish comps. Has there been any change to the building blocks behind that 10.10% to 10.6% long-term EBIT margin guidance, realizing productivity plays a role? But are there any margin factors there that are maybe structurally higher today than where you originally framed it?

偉大的。只是快速跟進。庫爾特，兩年的比賽完全平淡。10.10% 至 10.6% 的長期息稅前利潤率指導背後的基礎是否發生了任何變化，以實現生產力的發揮？但是，今天是否有任何結構性的邊際因素可能比您最初設定的要高？

No. Really, there's not anything significant in our algorithm to a 10.1% to 10.6% and recognizing that we're going to continue to invest for the long term. The last two years, the comp sales puts pressure on our ability to leverage the SG&A, and it's really been difference.

不。事實上，我們的演算法對於 10.1% 到 10.6% 並沒有什麼重要意義，並且認識到我們將繼續進行長期投資。過去兩年，公司銷售給我們利用 SG&A 的能力帶來了壓力，而且情況確實有所不同。

The team has just done a phenomenal job, though, finding ways to offset that. And there are a number of cases on productivity in both our stores and our logistics distribution team that have just done a phenomenal job finding new opportunities for productivity. So the team has done well to be able to maintain that 10%-plus operating margin in the last couple of years.

不過，團隊剛完成了一項出色的工作，找到了抵消這種影響的方法。我們的商店和物流配送團隊都有許多關於生產力的案例，他們剛完成了出色的工作，找到了提高生產力的新機會。因此，該團隊做得很好，能夠在過去幾年中保持 10% 以上的營業利潤率。

So the algorithm is still intact. And Hal mentioned all the different reasons of our expectations of being able to get back to the long-term algo. And that just gives a better opportunity to avoid the pressures of SG&A. So feel very confident with the long-term algo still at this point.

所以演算法仍然完好無損。哈爾提到了我們期望能夠回到長期演算法的所有不同原因。這只是提供了一個更好的機會來避免 SG&A 的壓力。因此，目前對長期演算法仍然非常有信心。

Peter Benedict, Baird.

彼得·本尼迪克特，貝爾德。

Maybe one for Seth. Just around the big-ticket strength, certainly continues to be unique relative to most of retail. You talked about some innovation, I think some sharp pricing on these items. I'm just curious if you could expand on it. Any other factors helping here? I don't know if the use of private credit has been playing a role. And how do you guys think about like replacement cycles for some of those bigger ticket categories? Is that potentially starting to kick in here? I'm just kind of curious if you expand on that a little bit. Thank you.

也許是賽斯的一個。就大宗商品的實力而言，相對於大多數零售業來說，無疑仍然是獨一無二的。你談到了一些創新，我認為這些產品的定價很高。我只是好奇你是否可以擴展它。還有其他因素有幫助嗎？我不知道民間信貸的使用是否發揮了作用。你們如何看待一些較大票券類別的更換週期？這有可能開始在這裡發揮作用嗎？我只是有點好奇你是否能對此進行擴展。謝謝。

Yes. Hey, Peter, thanks for the question. Just overall a big ticket, as we mentioned, we definitely are very pleased with the performance there as Q3 really was much in line with the strength of the performance as we exited Q2 and we really were able to maintain that.

是的。嘿，彼得，謝謝你的提問。正如我們所提到的，總的來說，我們對那裡的表現非常滿意，因為第三季度確實與我們退出第二季度時的表現強度非常一致，而且我們確實能夠保持這一點。

The third quarter, it was our third consecutive quarter of big ticket growth. And as you mentioned in some of the categories that we've had, whether it be like zero returns, front engine riders, rec vehicles and a couple of other categories, I would point to a couple of things that have really differentiated us a little bit from the market, I believe.

第三季度，這是我們連續第三個季度實現大額成長。正如您在我們已有的一些類別中提到的，無論是零回報、前置發動機騎手、休閒車輛還是其他幾個類別，我想指出一些真正使我們與眾不同的事情我相信，來自市場的一點。

I would start with just the product lineup itself. I think the merchants have done a fantastic job of line structure in these categories where we are offering quality, high-value products across multiple brands, bringing innovation. We're working on differentiation with exclusive features, and they're really built and tailored to our customer, right, and their customer needs with kind of the large animal or the large acre ownership across a lot of our customers.

我將從產品陣容本身開始。我認為商家在這些類別的產品線結構方面做得非常出色，我們在多個品牌中提供優質、高價值的產品，帶來創新。我們正在致力於透過獨特的功能實現差異化，它們確實是根據我們的客戶以及他們的客戶需求而構建和定制的，例如我們許多客戶的大型動物或大面積所有權。

The next thing I would say is just some of the strategic inventory investments that Kurt mentioned earlier as well. When we exited Q2, we made sure we saw some of the strength here and we're looking at the weather patterns. And we placed inventory in these categories to make sure that we could continue to maintain that as we went after it.

接下來我要說的是庫爾特之前提到的一些策略性庫存投資。當我們退出第二季度時，我們確保看到了這裡的一些優勢，並且我們正在研究天氣模式。我們將庫存放置在這些類別中，以確保我們能夠在追求目標時繼續保持這種狀態。

And then the last thing I would just say is private label credit card. Our private label credit card momentum has been very strong. With that, our supplier base are partnering with us to continue to drive that. And when you just kind of combine those things together, whether it be the lineup itself, the value quality proposition, designing programs specific to the lifestyle of our customer. And then coupling that with things like our offerings, both with private label credit cards and leveraging our Neighbor's Club, it's really a combination of all those together that's really playing on it.

我要說的最後一件事是自有品牌信用卡。我們的自有品牌信用卡勢頭非常強勁。因此，我們的供應商正在與我們合作，以繼續推動這一目標。當你將這些東西結合在一起時，無論是產品陣容本身、價值品質主張、還是針對我們客戶的生活方式設計的項目。然後將其與我們的產品（包括自有品牌信用卡和利用我們的 Neighbor’s Club）結合起來，這實際上是所有這些真正發揮作用的組合。

Teams built in 2025 right now. I think you'll see they'll continue to expand on those things and really excited about the lineup as we move into next year.

目前團隊於 2025 年組成。我想你會看到他們會繼續擴展這些東西，並且在我們進入明年時對陣容感到非常興奮。

Peter Keith, Piper Sandler.

彼得·基思，派珀·桑德勒。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Congrats on the continued market share gains. I want to ask about technology. So how you'd referenced some greater data integrity and personalization with Neighbor's Club. I was wondering how you're leveraging technology and AI to provide those solutions. And anything that we might think about going into next year that could perhaps provide some type of sales benefit?

你好。謝謝。大家早安。祝賀市場份額持續增長。我想問一下技術。那麼您如何透過 Neighbor's Club 引用一些更高的資料完整性和個人化功能。我想知道你們如何利用科技和人工智慧來提供這些解決方案。明年我們可能會考慮哪些可能帶來某種銷售效益的事情？

Good morning, Peter. Thanks for the question. I'd say we are infusing machine learning, data science, AI, really across the business, both in our own analytics frameworks, also in leveraging our software providers' capabilities, whether that's in things like Reflexis on inventory management or whether that's with our new CDP in terms of customer insights and personalization.

早安，彼得。謝謝你的提問。我想說，我們正在將機器學習、數據科學、人工智慧真正融入整個業務中，無論是在我們自己的分析框架中，還是在利用我們軟體供應商的能力方面，無論是在庫存管理方面的Reflexis 還是我們的新的 CDP 在客戶洞察和個人化方面。

And then I'm really proud that we're also building solutions internally to drive, as I've shared earlier, kind of better customer service in our stores. And whether that's through things like tractor vision, where we're upgrading our camera software and hardware technologies to be able to leverage our cameras to drive improved customer service through a variety of use cases, whether that's at the register on the apron and in our Garden Centers, or whether that's through our Hey GURA tool that we have, that all of our team members are able to use to ask -- to get further knowledge inside of our stores when they're dealing with customers or when they just want to educate themselves.

然後，我感到非常自豪的是，我們還在內部建立解決方案，以推動我們商店中更好的客戶服務，正如我之前分享的那樣。無論是透過拖拉機視覺之類的東西，我們正在升級我們的相機軟體和硬體技術，以便能夠利用我們的相機透過各種用例來改善客戶服務，無論是在停機坪上的收銀台還是在我們的花園中心，或者無論是透過我們擁有的 Hey GURA 工具，我們所有的團隊成員都可以使用該工具來詢問，以便在與客戶打交道或只是想了解我們商店內部的更多信息教育自己。

But we have a broad variety of things that we're using, all really to drive improved customer service productivity with our team. Also, in our distribution centers, we're doing that. We're using vision technology to be able to look at the packing of trucks, to look at left off of trucks, to watch and to use it to manage the yard. So whether it's operationally in our DCs, whether it's for customer service in our stores or whether it's in our merchants or marketing use it for behind-the-scenes analytics and personalization, we're leveraging data science and machine learning and AI across the board. Thanks, Peter, for the question.

但我們正在使用各種各樣的東西，所有這些都是為了真正提高我們團隊的客戶服務效率。此外，在我們的配送中心，我們也在這樣做。我們使用視覺技術來查看卡車的包裝、查看卡車的剩餘情況、觀察並使用它來管理堆場。因此，無論是在我們的配送中心運營，還是在我們的商店中提供客戶服務，或者在我們的商家或行銷中使用它進行幕後分析和個性化，我們都在全面利用數據科學、機器學習和人工智能。謝謝彼得提出的問題。

Operator, we'll have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Scott Ciccarelli, Truist.

斯科特·西卡雷利，真理論者。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in. First, a quick clarification, I think it might have been on Chuck's question. Are you expecting this year's same SKU deflation to flip to same SKU inflation in '25? And then kind of related to that, are you able to quantify to any degree the pressure on your business from the decline in farm income that we've seen because of commodity deflation? Thanks.

早安，夥計們。謝謝你把我擠進去。首先，快速澄清一下，我認為這可能是關於查克的問題。您是否預期今年相同的 SKU 通貨緊縮會轉變為 25 年相同的 SKU 通膨？與此相關的是，您是否能夠在一定程度上量化由於商品通貨緊縮而導致的農業收入下降對您的業務造成的壓力？謝謝。

Hey, Scott, this is Kurt. On deflation, for the first nine months of the year, it's generally ran in line with our plan and expectations. We have seen a bit of additional step down modest on some of the commodities. I expect Q4 to have a similar but slightly less deflationary impact in Q3, but it really looks like today, if you're trying to peg when is there a point neutrality that that's been punted out anywhere from three to six months. And we will have a much better view in January on what the expectation is on 2025.

嘿，史考特，這是庫爾特。在通貨緊縮方面，今年前九個月，總體上符合我們的計劃和預期。我們看到一些商品的價格進一步小幅下調。我預計第四季的通貨緊縮影響將與第三季類似，但略小一些，但今天的情況確實如此，如果你試圖確定何時會出現三到六個月的中性點。我們將在 1 月對 2025 年的預期有一個更好的了解。

All indication is as we are shifting out of a deflationary environment towards an inflationary one, the timing of when that conversion flips, we first thought it would be late 2024, early 2025. That could be Q1, Q2 of next year. And then in regards to your second question, remind me again, that point?

所有跡像都表明，隨著我們正在從通貨緊縮環境轉向通膨環境，這種轉換發生的時間點，我們首先認為是 2024 年底、2025 年初。那可能是明年第一季、第二季。那麼關於你的第二個問題，請再提醒我，那一點？

Just farm income broadly has been under pressure because of commodity deflation. And I'm just trying to figure out, have you guys maybe will quantify the impact on your biz. Thanks.

由於大宗商品通貨緊縮，光是農業收入就普遍面臨壓力。我只是想弄清楚，你們是否可以量化對你們業務的影響。謝謝。

Yes. For years, we've looked at the farm income level in strong years, in soft years. And it can have either an indirect slight halo or overhang on there, and we really don't see much of a correlation to that. And as you know, I'll just point out, our majority of our customers are not professional farmers. It's not their number one source of income. And if anything, we look sometimes at the overall market area and if there's an indirect benefit to that market area and how the nonfarmers may spend. At this point, we're not really seeing anything that points to that in our business today.

是的。多年來，我們一直在研究強年和弱年的農業收入水準。它可能有一個間接的輕微光環或懸垂在那裡，我們確實沒有看到與之有太大的相關性。如您所知，我只想指出，我們的大多數客戶都不是職業農民。這不是他們的第一收入來源。如果有的話，我們有時會關注整個市場區域，以及該市場區域是否有間接利益以及非農民可能如何消費。目前，我們在今天的業務中還沒有真正看到任何表明這一點的東西。

All right. Well, that will get us to the top of the hour and wrap up our Q&A for today. As always, we're available for any follow-up calls. Please be on the lookout for the invitation to our Investment Community Day in December that Hal referenced earlier. And please reach out if you need any further information. We look forward to the event, and thank you for your interest in Tractor Supply.

好的。好了，我們今天的問答就到此結束了。一如既往，我們隨時可以接聽任何後續電話。請留意 Hal 先前提到的 12 月投資社區日邀請函。如果您需要任何進一步的信息，請聯繫我們。我們期待這次活動，並感謝您對拖拉機供應的興趣。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。