Tenaris SA (TS) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Tenaris Fourth Quarter and Annual Results Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持，並歡迎參加泰納瑞斯第四季和年度業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna, Investor Relations of Tenaris.

（操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人，泰納瑞斯投資者關係部的 Giovanni Sardagna。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Victor, and welcome to Tenaris 2019 Fourth Quarter and Annual Results Conference Call.

謝謝 Victor，歡迎參加泰納瑞斯 2019 年第四季和年度業績電話會議。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that during this conference call, we will be discussing forward-looking information and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議中，我們將討論前瞻性信息，我們的實際結果可能與本次電話會議中明示或暗示的結果有所不同。

With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO; Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer; Guillermo Vogel, Vice Chairman and member of our Board of Directors; Germán Curá, Vice Chairman and member of our Board of Directors; Gabriel Podskubka, President of our Eastern Hemisphere Operations; and Luca Zanotti, President of our U.S. Operations.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Paolo Rocca； Alicia Mondolo，我們的財務長； Guillermo Vogel，我們的副主席兼董事會成員； Germán Curá，副主席兼董事會成員； Gabriel Podskubka，東半球業務總裁；以及我們美國業務總裁 Luca Zanotti。

I would like to start by mentioning that we will host an investor presentation in London on April 3, and we hope to see many of you there.

首先我想提一下，我們將在 4 月 3 日在倫敦舉辦投資者介紹會，希望在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results.

在致電保羅致開幕詞之前，我想先簡單評論一下我們的季度業績。

During the fourth quarter of 2019, sales reached $1.7 billion, down 17% compared with those of the corresponding quarter of the previous year and 1% sequentially mainly as a result of a slowdown in activity in Argentina and lower prices in the Americas.

2019年第四季，銷售額達17億美元，比上年同期下降17%，比上一季下降1%，主要是由於阿根廷經濟活動放緩和美洲價格下跌。

Our quarterly EBITDA at $290 million was down 10% sequentially, and our EBITDA margin decreased to around 17% mainly due to a drop in average selling prices and higher professional fees mainly related to the closing of the IPSCO acquisition for around $10 million.

我們的季度EBITDA 為2.9 億美元，比上一季下降10%，我們的EBITDA 利潤率下降至17% 左右，這主要是由於平均售價下降以及以約1000 萬美元完成IPSCO 收購導致的專業費用上漲。

Average selling prices in our Tubes operating segment declined 3% compared to the corresponding quarter of '18 and 3% sequentially.

與 18 年同期相比，我們管材業務部門的平均售價下降了 3%，比上一季下降了 3%。

During the quarter, cash flow from operation was $264 million.

本季營運現金流為 2.64 億美元。

Our net cash position rose by $16 million to $980 million, following the payment of an interim dividend of $153 million in November last year and capital expenditure of $80 million.

繼去年 11 月支付 1.53 億美元中期股息和 8,000 萬美元資本支出後，我們的淨現金部位增加了 1,600 萬美元，達到 9.8 億美元。

The Board of Director has decided to propose for the approval of the Annual General Shareholders' Meeting to be held at the end of April the payment of an annual dividend of $0.41 per share or $0.82 per ADR, which includes the interim dividend of $0.13 per share or $0.26 per ADR that we paid at the end of November of last year.

董事會決定提請4月底召開的年度股東大會批准支付每股0.41美元的年度股息或每份ADR 0.82美元，其中包括每股0.13美元的中期股息或我們在去年 11 月底支付的每份 ADR 0.26 美元。

If approved, a dividend of $0.28 per share or $0.56 per ADR will be paid on May 20.

如果獲得批准，每股股息 0.28 美元或每份 ADR 0.56 美元將於 5 月 20 日支付。

Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

現在，在我們開始提問之前，我請保羅說幾句話。

Thank you very much, Giovanni.

非常感謝你，喬瓦尼。

Good morning to all of you.

各位早安。

2019 was a more difficult year for Tenaris than we expected.

2019 年對泰納瑞斯來說是比我們預期更困難的一年。

The adjustment in drilling activity in the U.S. shales, in response to lower cash flow and a less accommodating financing environment, was prolonged.

為因應現金流下降和融資環境較差，美國頁岩油鑽探活動的調整時間延長了。

And only now as we begin 2020, we are starting to see activities stabilizing at a level, 25%, lower than it was a year ago.

直到 2020 年伊始，我們才開始看到經濟活動穩定在 25% 的水平，低於一年前。

Pricing in the Americas was also affected by the drop in U.S. activity, coupled with the partial resurgence of U.S. domestic welded pipe production, following the steep fall in cultural steel prices in the first part of the year.

美洲的定價也受到美國經濟活動下降以及今年上半年文化鋼價格大幅下跌後美國國內焊管生產部分復甦的影響。

Meanwhile, in Argentina, political and economic uncertainty in the second half of the year has resulted in a sharp fall in investment activity in Vaca Muerta.

同時，在阿根廷，下半年政治和經濟的不確定性導致瓦卡穆爾塔的投資活動急劇下降。

In Saudi Arabia, Aramco started a lengthy destocking process, which may last through the end of this year.

在沙烏地阿拉伯，阿美石油公司啟動了漫長的去庫存過程，可能會持續到今年年底。

Against this background, Tenaris has achieved important milestone and strengthened this position in key markets.

在此背景下，泰納瑞斯實現了重要的里程碑，並鞏固了在關鍵市場的地位。

On safety, we have made good progress over the past 2 years.

在安全方面，過去兩年我們取得了良好進展。

Our lost time injury frequency rate has halved to an annual average of 1.2 lost time accident per million man-hour worked, including contractor.

我們的誤工工傷頻率已減半，達到年平均每百萬工時 1.2 起誤工事故，其中包括承包商。

And in the fourth quarter of 2019, we were able to reduce it below 1. This reflect the constant and management focus over years and the cultural change that we've been able to extend to our 45 facility around the world.

在 2019 年第四季度，我們能夠將其降至 1 以下。這反映了多年來持續的關注和管理重點，以及我們已經能夠擴展到全球 45 個工廠的文化變革。

Financially, we have worked hard to maintain the strength of our balance sheet.

在財務方面，我們努力維持資產負債表的實力。

On sales of $7.3 billion, our free cash flow margin was 16% for the year as we reduced working capital by over $500 million.

在銷售額為 73 億美元的情況下，由於我們減少了超過 5 億美元的營運資本，因此我們當年的自由現金流利潤率為 16%。

At year-end, our net cash position had risen by $495 million to $980 million after maintaining our annual dividend payments in $484 million over the year and acquiring 48% of Saudi Steel Pipe for $132 million in January.

截至年底，我們的年度股息支付維持在 4.84 億美元，並在 1 月份以 1.32 億美元收購了沙特鋼管公司 48% 的股份，之後，我們的淨現金頭寸增加了 4.95 億美元，達到 9.8 億美元。

Even with the acquisition of IPSCO, after the close of the year, we have a net debt-free balance sheet.

即使收購了 IPSCO，年底後我們仍擁有淨無債務資產負債表。

We were finally able to complete the acquisition of IPSCO on January 2 after receiving clearance from the U.S. antitrust authorities in late December.

在12月底獲得美國反壟斷機構的批准後，我們終於在1月2日完成了對IPSCO的收購。

This process lasted 9 months, much longer than we had anticipated.

這個過程持續了9個月，比我們預期的要長得多。

During this time, the market deteriorated, and our Rig Direct competitors, the distributor, were able to switch their pipe purchases away from IPSCO to other producers.

在此期間，市場惡化，我們的 Rig Direct 競爭對手（經銷商）能夠將其管道採購從 IPSCO 轉向其他生產商。

Consequently, we are now integrating a company operating at a loss with high inventory and with many production facilities shutdown.

因此，我們現在正在整合一家虧損經營、庫存高、許多生產設施關閉的公司。

This will act as a drag on our first quarter results.

這將拖累我們第一季的業績。

We're acting rapidly to reduce cost, to recover market share and implement the synergies we identify for the transaction.

我們正在迅速採取行動，以降低成本、恢復市場份額並實現我們為交易確定的協同效應。

Despite the change in market condition and the lower activity level in the mills, all the assumptions that originally justified the acquisition remain valid as it will strengthen our commercial, industrial and technological leadership in the U.S. market.

儘管市場狀況變化且工廠的活動水平較低，但最初證明此次收購合理的所有假設仍然有效，因為它將加強我們在美國市場的商業、工業和技術領先地位。

With the Koppel electric arc furnaces steel shop, we now have our first steelmaking facility in the U.S., which will be able to supply with limited investment a significant portion of our steel requirement for the Ambridge and Bay City mills.

憑藉科佩爾電弧爐煉鋼車間，我們現在在美國擁有了第一家煉鋼廠，該工廠將能夠以有限的投資滿足安布里奇和貝城鋼廠的大部分鋼鐵需求。

The Ambridge's seamless pipe mill complemented the product range of our Bay City mill, and the geographical distribution of the acquired asset will help us to strengthen our Rig Direct service and reduce lead time, particularly in the northern part of the U.S. The contribution of the enhanced team and expansion of our technology portfolio will further strengthen our positioning in the U.S. market.

Ambridge 的無縫管廠補充了我們 Bay City 工廠的產品範圍，所收購資產的地理分佈將幫助我們加強 Rig Direct 服務並縮短交貨時間，特別是在美國北部地區。團隊的建設和技術組合的擴展將進一步加強我們在美國市場的地位。

Also, in the U.S., our Bay City mill has reached targeted levels of production and efficiency and is fully prepared to further enhance our competitive position.

此外，在美國，我們的灣城工廠已達到生產和效率的目標水平，並已做好充分準備，進一步增強我們的競爭地位。

During the year, we strengthened our position in Saudi Arabia through the integration of Saudi Steel Pipe even if in the current market condition, this is not yet fully reflected in our cash flow.

年內，我們透過整合沙烏地阿拉伯鋼管加強了我們在沙烏地阿拉伯的地位，即使在目前的市場狀況下，這尚未完全反映在我們的現金流中。

In Abu Dhabi, we successfully won a long-term contract valued at $1.9 billion to supply the majority of ADNOC OCTG requirement over the next 5 years.

在阿布達比，我們成功贏得了一份價值 19 億美元的長期合同，以滿足未來 5 年內 ADNOC OCTG 的大部分需求。

This will start to be reflected in our cash flow from mid-'20s, 2020, I'd say.

我想說，從 20 世紀 20 年代中期到 2020 年，這將開始反映在我們的現金流中。

We have a strong focus on reducing the environmental impact of our operation, whether locally in our communities or more globally through addressing the challenge of climate change.

我們非常注重透過應對氣候變遷的挑戰來減少我們的營運對環境的影響，無論是在我們的本地社區還是在全球範圍內。

During 2019, we completed important investment to improve air quality and reduce our environmental footprint at our mills in Argentina and Mexico.

2019 年，我們完成了重要投資，以改善阿根廷和墨西哥工廠的空氣品質並減少環境足跡。

In other part of our industrial system, we also have industry-leading emission level.

在我們產業體系的其他部分，我們也具有領先業界的排放水準。

On Bay City mill, for example -- our Bay City mill, for example, is the only operation of its type qualified in the U.S. as a minor source of emission.

以貝城工廠為例，我們的貝城工廠是美國唯一符合次要排放源資格的同類工廠。

With respect to CO2 emission, we have relatively low levels of emission compared to our competitor and other steelmakers since we only use electric arc furnaces and gas-based direct reduction of iron for steelmaking.

就二氧化碳排放而言，由於我們僅使用電弧爐和氣體直接還原煉鐵來煉鋼，因此與我們的競爭對手和其他鋼鐵製造商相比，我們的排放量相對較低。

We have also integrated gas-fired combined cycle power generation for a large proportion of our production.

我們的大部分生產也整合了燃氣複合循環發電。

Over the past 5 years, we have reduced the CO2 emission intensity of our operation by 18% to 1.18 tons of CO2 per ton of steel.

過去5年，我們的營運二氧化碳排放強度降低了18%，達到每噸鋼1.18噸二氧化碳。

This is 35% below the global average for steelmaking reported by the worldsteel.

這比世界鋼鐵協會報告的全球煉鋼平均值低 35%。

This data is referring to the 4 major facility that also have steelmaking.

該數據指的是 4 家也有煉鋼的主要工廠。

As I mentioned before, we have, overall, worldwide, 45 facility operating, but the steelmaking operation are focused on 4 and now on 5, considering also the acquired asset [income].

正如我之前提到的，我們在全球範圍內總共有 45 座工廠在運營，但煉鋼業務主要集中在 4 座，現在是 5 座，同時考慮到收購的資產[收入]。

Sustainability has long been embedded in our managing -- management practices, and we look forward to leading our industry response to the global climate challenge.

永續發展早已融入我們的管理實踐中，我們期待引領我們的產業應對全球氣候挑戰。

During 2020, we do not expect a substantial change in the market environment, but it's still difficult to assess the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy and the oil prices.

2020年，我們預期市場環境不會發生實質變化，但目前仍難以評估疫情對全球經濟和油價的影響。

However, the repositioning in the U.S. with the integration of IPSCO, the action we are taking worldwide to reduce costs, to increase efficiency in our industrial system and to reduce lead time in our supply chain should allow us to recover our margins to around 20%.

然而，透過整合 IPSCO 在美國進行重新定位，以及我們在全球範圍內採取的降低成本、提高工業系統效率並縮短供應鏈交貨時間的行動，應該能讓我們將利潤率恢復到 20% 左右。

I will stop here and leave the floor open for any questions you may have.

我就講到這裡，並為大家提出的任何問題留出空間。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Igor Levi from BTIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 BTIG 的 Igor Levi。

So based on the North American numbers you reported being slightly up, assuming Mexico was up and Canada slightly seasonally up, it implies that the U.S. was only down marginally when the rig count was down more than 10% in the quarter.

因此，根據您報告的北美數據略有上升，假設墨西哥和加拿大略有季節性上升，這意味著當本季度鑽機數量下降超過 10% 時，美國才略有下降。

Could you talk about the reason for this outperformance of the rig count and just a bit more on the market in the U.S. and whether we've seen the trough in U.S. OCTG demand?

您能否談談美國市場上鑽機數量表現優異的原因以及我們是否已經看到美國油井管需求的低谷？

Well, thank you.

嗯，謝謝。

I think spite of a reduction in the size of the market, we've been able to maintain our position, but I will ask Luca Zanotti to comment more deeply into the situation in the American market.

我認為儘管市場規模縮小了，我們仍然能夠保持我們的地位，但我會請Luca Zanotti更深入地評論美國市場的情況。

Thank you, Paolo.

謝謝你，保羅。

Good morning, Igor.

早安，伊戈爾。

As you certainly know this, international competitors that traditionally targeted the U.S. market eventually encountered difficulties to export on this market.

如您所知，傳統上瞄準美國市場的國際競爭對手最終在向該市場出口時遇到了困難。

And so as a consequence, imports dropped significantly to 35% of the demand in the fourth quarter of 2019.

因此，2019 年第四季進口量大幅下降至需求的 35%。

And leveraging our redirect model and our large manufacturing footprint in the United States, we were able to tap into this space, and therefore, we were able to maintain flat our sales.

利用我們的重定向模型和我們在美國的龐大製造足跡，我們能夠進入這個領域，因此我們能夠保持銷售額持平。

Now looking ahead, what we see is that, given current circumstances, we don't see this situation to change.

現在展望未來，我們看到的是，鑑於目前的情況，我們認為這種情況不會改變。

As a matter of fact, if we consider the import license of January 2020, they were pretty low.

事實上，如果我們考慮 2020 年 1 月的進口許可證，它們的價格相當低。

So we expect to be able to maintain our levels.

因此，我們希望能夠維持我們的水平。

And our next question comes from the line of Ian MacPherson from Simmons.

我們的下一個問題來自西蒙斯的伊恩·麥克弗森。

I was wondering if you could perhaps talk about the level of results that you saw from the IPSCO assets in the fourth quarter and maybe quantify for us how much of a drag it represents in Q1.

我想知道您是否可以談談您在第四季度從 IPSCO 資產中看到的結果水平，並為我們量化它對第一季的拖累有多大。

Because I know that you have an objective to capture integration benefits and synergies as we march through the year, but maybe if you're talking about margins being flat from Q4 into Q1, how much of that is the impact of the IPSCO drag in Q1?

因為我知道您的目標是在今年前進時獲得整合效益和協同效應，但如果您談論的是從第四季度到第一季的利潤率持平，那麼其中有多少是第一季 IPSCO 拖累的影響？

Well, you are right that due to the lengthy process to clear the transaction through the antitrust and the DOJ, the company has been subjected to important stress during 2019.

嗯，你是對的，由於反壟斷和司法部批准交易的程序漫長，該公司在 2019 年承受了巨大的壓力。

So the EBITDA on the company stand-alone went down, became negative in the third Q and become even more negative in the fourth Q of 2019.

因此，公司單獨的 EBITDA 下降，在 2019 年第三季變為負值，並在 2019 年第四季變得更加負值。

Now in the first Q, this will have a drag on our results because we could not turn around the situation within a very, very short period of time, but we are acting very fast on all front and we're expected to be able to reduce fast the drag and gradually to get to the synergies that were embedded in our business plan since the very beginning.

現在在第一個問題中，這將拖累我們的結果，因為我們無法在非常非常短的時間內扭轉局勢，但我們在各方面的行動非常快，我們預計能夠快速減少阻力，並逐漸實現從一開始就嵌入我們業務計劃中的協同效應。

As I mentioned before in my prepared statement, all the consideration and -- that led us to the acquisition are still very valid.

正如我之前在準備好的聲明中提到的，導致我們進行收購的所有考慮因素仍然非常有效。

And in the first month in which we get contact with the people, the operation, the technology, we're confirming, let's say, the rationale and objective of the acquisition, but we will have a drag.

在我們與人員、營運、技術接觸的第一個月，我們正在確認收購的理由和目標，但我們會遇到阻力。

This drag is also embedded in a high level of inventory in the company because the company in the end reacted slowly to the change of policy by the distribution system.

這種拖累也體現在公司的高庫存水準上，因為公司最終對分銷系統的政策變化反應緩慢。

So we have a level of inventory that are priced at a level that is reflecting the costs and are different from the costs that we have.

因此，我們的庫存水準的定價反映了成本，並且與我們現有的成本不同。

So there will be a gradual reduction of this inventory, and this will be part of the drag that I mentioned for the first Q.

因此，庫存將會逐漸減少，這將是我在第一個問題中提到的拖累的一部分。

I will ask Luca to comment on the path, the road map and the synergy that we plan to get in the coming quarter.

我將請盧卡對我們計劃在下一季實現的路徑、路線圖和協同效應發表評論。

Yes, Paolo.

是的，保羅。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ian, specifically to synergies, what we have seen when we start looking into the company carefully, we see that compared to what we previously announced, we see a higher level of synergies.

伊恩，特別是協同效應，當我們開始仔細研究公司時，我們發現與我們之前宣布的相比，我們看到了更高的協同效應。

We estimate an annual run rate in the range of USD 80 million to USD 100 million.

我們估計年運轉率在 8,000 萬美元至 1 億美元之間。

Now those synergies will come from 4 main buckets.

現在，這些協同效應將來自四個主要方面。

The first 1 is the optimization of the allocation.

第一個是分配的最佳化。

We're going to be certainly favoring the most efficient and lower-cost mills.

我們肯定會青睞最高效、成本最低的工廠。

And at the same time, we want to reduce logistic costs, allocating in proximity of the consumption is forecasted.

同時，我們希望降低物流成本，在預測的消費附近進行分配。

The second is going to be capacity reduction.

第二是去產能。

And I believe that what we've done following the previous management is already public, but we rightsized production capacity.

我相信，我們繼前任管理層之後所做的事情已經是公開的，但我們調整了產能。

The third 1 is coming from the fixed cost reduction deriving from the integration.

第三個1來自整合帶來的固定成本降低。

And the fourth is deriving for -- from the operational and purchasing/makeup by decision.

第四個是從營運和採購/組成決策中得出的。

So as I said before, these 4 main buckets are supposed to bring between USD 80 million and USD 100 million.

正如我之前所說，這 4 個主要領域應該帶來 8,000 萬美元至 1 億美元的收入。

We expect those synergies to kick in gradually through the year and to accrue the full benefit towards the end of 2020, the last quarter of 2020.

我們預計這些協同效應將在今年逐步發揮作用，並在 2020 年底（即 2020 年最後一季）產生全部效益。

My follow-up question, I wondered if you could maybe provide some range of expectations for first quarter revenues given the stabilization of your base business and then the full -- almost a full quarter capture of top line, even though at a dilutive margin from IPSCO, that would help provide a helping -- helpful starting point for us.

我的後續問題是，考慮到基礎業務的穩定以及幾乎整個季度的營收，您是否可以對第一季的收入提供一定範圍的預期，儘管利潤率是攤薄的IPSCO，這將為我們提供一個有幫助的、有用的起點。

Well, in the first quarter, as you remember in -- 3 months ago, we were considering that we should have had positive impact from reduction in our costs coming from the lower price of hot-rolled coils getting through our inventory, from lower level of maintenance, because last year, we had some overrun in maintenance and some change in mix.

嗯，在第一季度，正如你所記得的，三個月前，我們正在考慮，我們的成本降低應該會產生積極的影響，因為熱軋捲材的​​價格較低，從較低的水平進入我們的庫存維護，因為去年，我們的維護出現了一些超支，並且在組合方面發生了一些變化。

Now what we see today has been -- will be affected by the drag of the IPSCO acquisition.

我們今天看到的情況將受到 IPSCO 收購拖累的影響。

Some of the costs related to the closing of the transaction.

一些費用與交易的完成有關。

We have lawyer and consultants that are supporting us.

我們有律師和顧問為我們提供支援。

There will be some cost related to the final closing that happens in January.

一月份的最終交割將會產生一些相關費用。

But there are specific issue that we need to complete during this month concerning inventory assessment and so on.

但本月我們需要完成一些具體問題，涉及庫存評估等。

And the Pipe Logix reduction.

以及Pipe Logix 的減少。

We didn't anticipate in October, but the Pipe Logix went down between October and January by another additional 5%.

我們沒有預料到 10 月的情況，但 Pipe Logix 在 10 月到 1 月之間又下降了 5%。

So this has an impact that is offsetting the improvement that we were considering for the first Q. So we now assume that in the first Q, EBITDA ratio should be and the margin should be in the range of the fourth Q. So the first Q will be more or less aligned in our view in term of margin with 4Q.

因此，這會產生抵消我們為第一個Q 考慮的改進的影響。因此，我們現在假設在第一個Q 中，EBITDA 比率應為且利潤率應在第四個Q 的範圍內。因此第一個 Q我們認為利潤率將或多或少與第四季保持一致。

Now from that point on, we expect things to start to improve, and we expect in the second part of the year to be able to get to the level of margin that we had in the first half of 2019, which is around 20% margin by that time.

從那時起，我們預計情況會開始改善，預計今年下半年將能夠達到 2019 年上半年的利潤率水平，即 20% 左右的利潤率到那個時候。

I understand the margin guidance.

我了解保證金指導。

I don't understand what we're talking about in terms of top line as a starting point for the year.

我不明白我們所說的以營收作為今年的起點是什麼。

In the top line, I think that considering the reduction in Pipe Logix that occur up to now, we will also be able to recover gradually.

總而言之，我認為考慮到到目前為止 Pipe Logix 的減少，我們也將能夠逐漸恢復。

But if you look at, let's say, the entire company, we expect that in the second half of 2020, we will be at the top line, in the range again of the first half of 2019.

但如果你看看整個公司，我們預計在 2020 年下半年，我們將再次達到 2019 年上半年的最高水準。

And our next question comes from the line of Sean Meakim from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Sean Meakim。

So maybe just to continue on to that line of thinking.

所以也許只是繼續這種思路。

If we think about the decline in Pipe Logix pricing in the fourth quarter, what's the average pricing that we should be thinking about in the first quarter relative to 4Q?

如果我們考慮第四季度 Pipe Logix 定價的下降，那麼相對於第四季度，我們應該考慮第一季的平均定價是多少？

Meaning, how much do we need to -- if we're stabilizing here, how much do we need to catch up first quarter relative to 4Q?

意思是，如果我們穩定下來，我們需要多少才能趕上第一季相對於第四季的水平？

And then just can we distinguish between seamless and welded?

那我們能區分無縫和焊接嗎？

I think this is considering the shift in the mix worldwide between, let's say, different regionals, if we are referring to the company as a whole, it's more difficult to give a clear answer in the level of pricing for this.

我認為這是考慮到全球範圍內不同地區之間的組合變化，如果我們指的是整個公司，則更難在定價水平上給出明確的答案。

The 5% reduction that we have seen between the 4Q and the first Q is in the Pipe Logix, but it didn't reflect entirely in our pricing.

我們在第四季和第一季之間看到 Pipe Logix 下降了 5%，但這並沒有完全反映在我們的定價上。

So from that point on, we also will be recovering.

所以從那時起，我們也將康復。

The difference in contracts, long-term contracts, short-term sales makes a little more difficult to forecast how the recovery in price may happen during 2020.

合約、長期合約、短期銷售的差異使得預測 2020 年價格復甦的情況變得更加困難。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe talk a little more about IPSCO.

然後也許再多談談 IPSCO。

So start of the year, maybe not as good as you would have thought a few months ago, but understandable given all the moving parts.

因此，今年年初，可能沒有你幾個月前想像的那麼好，但考慮到所有的變化，這是可以理解的。

It seems like the distributors maybe are getting through a lot of the destocking process in North America.

北美的經銷商似乎正在經歷大量的去庫存過程。

Could you give us a sense of your expectations for IPSCO's contribution to cash flow in 2020?

您能否告訴我們您對 IPSCO 2020 年現金流貢獻的期望？

As I mentioned before, this will be growing over time, but Luca, maybe you can add some comment on the cash flow coming from IPSCO during 2020 after, let's say, the third quarter, it will be...

正如我之前提到的，這將隨著時間的推移而增長，但是盧卡，也許你可以對 2020 年 IPSCO 的現金流添加一些評論，比如說第三季度之後，這將是…

Yes, Paolo.

是的，保羅。

Sean, as I was anticipating before, we see IPSCO (inaudible) with a negative profitability.

肖恩，正如我之前預計的那樣，我們看到 IPSCO（聽不清楚）的盈利能力為負。

And then thanks to the 2 things that Paolo already mentioned in his opening, so a recovery in volumes and the full implementation of the synergy's action, we're going to see profitability to improve and get positive to -- in the second half of 2020.

然後，由於 Paolo 在開場白中提到的兩件事，即銷量的復甦和協同行動的全面實施，我們將看到盈利能力得到改善，並在 2020 年下半年取得積極進展。

And so when we think about CapEx associated with the business, on a full year basis, do we think that it's cash flow positive?

因此，當我們考慮與業務相關的全年資本支出時，我們是否認為現金流為正？

Or is -- in 2020, as we're working through the process, is it maybe a net use of cash for the year?

或者是 - 2020 年，當我們正在完成這個過程時，這可能是當年的現金淨使用嗎？

Well, at this point in time, we are looking at the, let's say, the investment level for the entire company, considering the facility.

嗯，此時此刻，我們正在考慮整個公司的投資水平，考慮到該設施。

There will be really operational in this.

這裡面才會有真正的可操作性。

We consider that the company should -- as a whole, Tenaris should have capital investment in the range of $350 million, $360 million, including the investment that I mentioned to expand the range of the Koppel continuous casters, so to be able to supply the entire American system, Bay City and Ambridge.

我們認為，作為一個整體，泰納瑞斯公司應該進行 3.5 億至 3.6 億美元的資本投資，包括我提到的擴大 Koppel 連鑄機系列的投資，以便能夠供應整個美國系統，灣城和安布里奇。

We will have to invest on this.

我們必須對此進行投資。

So as a whole, this will be in the range of $360 million investment in capital.

總的來說，這將在 3.6 億美元的資本投資範圍內。

Now the EBITDA, we expect EBITDA of the single [BDD] the IPSCO asset to become positive in the second half of 2020.

現在是 EBITDA，我們預計 IPSCO 單一資產 [BDD] 的 EBITDA 將在 2020 年下半年變為正數。

And our next question will come from the line of Marc Bianchi from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將來自考恩 (Cowen) 的馬克·比安奇 (Marc Bianchi)。

I guess, first, back on the Pipe Logix question.

我想，首先，回到 Pipe Logix 問題。

Maybe not so much related to how it affects your revenue here in the first and second quarter, but just on a leading-edge basis, given the commentary about low imports and maybe where inventories sit, how do you see the Pipe Logix pricing index progressing from here?

也許與它如何影響您在第一季和第二季的收入沒有太大關係，但只是在領先的基礎上，考慮到有關進口量低以及庫存狀況的評論，您如何看待 Pipe Logix 定價指數的進展從這裡？

We expect a recovery.

我們預計經濟會復甦。

We expect a recovery after that, let's say, the point that has been reached in these months.

我們預計在那之後會出現復甦，比如說這幾個月所達到的程度。

Frankly, I think that we should be bottoming out from here.

坦白說，我認為我們應該從這裡觸底。

But I would ask Luca.

但我會問盧卡。

He share this feeling and if Pipe Logix is bottoming out.

他也有同樣的感覺，如果 Pipe Logix 正在觸底的話。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Marc, I believe that yes, we need to consider different pieces.

馬克，我相信是的，我們需要考慮不同的部分。

And the first 1 that you certainly have also seen is that recently, there is a number of an array negative results coming in from the industry.

您當然也看到的第一個是，最近，該行業出現了一系列負面結果。

You have seen increase in negative EBITDA generation from some competitors, industrial restructuring from other competitors, recapitalization from other as well.

您已經看到一些競爭對手產生的負 EBITDA 增加、其他競爭對手的產業重組以及其他競爭對手的資本重組。

And this is the first part.

這是第一部分。

The second, you've seen towards the end of 2019, competitors to announce price increases.

第二，到 2019 年底，競爭對手宣布漲價。

And overall, these are all signs that the industry is in a situation that really needs prices to go up.

總體而言，這些跡像都表明該行業確實處於需要價格上漲的情況。

My -- I share your point, and I believe that we are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

我的——我同意你的觀點，我相信我們正在觸及桶底。

And I see prices going up in the future.

我預計未來價格會上漲。

Yes.

是的。

I think -- yes, really, we are -- you should be touching the bottom.

我認為——是的，真的，我們是——你應該觸底了。

And this level of Pipe Logix and price is basically unsustainable in the medium term for the competitor, domestic, and global competitor for the U.S. market.

對於美國市場的競爭對手、國內和全球競爭對手來說，這種水準的 Pipe Logix 和價格在中期內基本上是不可持續的。

Okay.

好的。

I wanted to go back to IPSCO and the losses.

我想回到 IPSCO 和損失。

A few questions around this IPSCO...

關於 IPSCO 的幾個問題...

Let me add one -- sorry, let me add one comment here to make it -- just to keep in mind.

讓我添加一條——抱歉，讓我在這裡添加一條評論——只是為了記住。

Here, we are considering that there is no more relevant impact from coronavirus.

在這裡，我們認為冠狀病毒不再產生相關影響。

I mean, if -- because this is the discussion we have, without considering additional disruption coming from the coronavirus on the level of economic activity worldwide in China and maybe consequently on the price of oil in China.

我的意思是，如果——因為這是我們進行的討論，沒有考慮冠狀病毒對中國全球經濟活動水平的額外幹擾，並可能因此對中國的石油價格造成影響。

So it's a scenario, the one that we are mentioning to you, that is consistent with the level of rigs in the level of 800 rigs, I mean, and no major disruption in the main variable of this.

因此，這是一個場景，我們向您提到的場景，與 800 台鑽機的水平一致，我的意思是，並且對此主要變數沒有重大干擾。

If something happens on the ground, obviously, things would be -- could be different.

如果實地發生什麼事情，顯然，情況可能會有所不同。

Sorry for interrupting you.

抱歉打擾你了。

No, that's helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

Makes sense.

說得通。

In terms of the IPSCO impact on results here, so it's negative right now.

就 IPSCO 對結果的影響而言，目前是負面的。

It sounds like it's going to be negative in the first half.

聽起來上半場會是負數。

Can you help quantify just on an EBITDA basis what we're talking about here?

您能幫忙量化一下我們在這裡討論的 EBITDA 嗎？

Is it like a $10 million kind of drag per quarter?

這是否相當於每季 1000 萬美元的拖累？

Or is it much more substantial than that?

或者它比這更重要嗎？

And then are we talking about breakeven...

然後我們正在談論盈虧平衡......

As I mentioned before, I mean -- yes, as I mentioned before, what we expect today, considering this impact and considering the other elements that I mentioned, still, our margin in the first quarter should be in line with the margin of the 4Q.

正如我之前提到的，我的意思是- 是的，正如我之前提到的，我們今天的預期，考慮到這種影響並考慮到我提到的其他因素，我們第一季的利潤率應該與第四季。

Okay.

好的。

And is there -- you mentioned some professional fees and such.

您提到了一些專業費用等等。

I would suspect that there might also be some restructuring if you're changing some of the fixed costs there.

我懷疑如果你要改變那裡的一些固定成本，也可能會進行一些重組。

Is there a number that you care to quantify as to how much of a onetime headwind some of those things could be in the first half?

您是否願意量化一些數字來衡量上半年這些事情可能會產生多大的一次性逆風？

This was a component that I was including in the consideration of cost related to the integration of IPSCO.

這是我在考慮與 IPSCO 整合相關的成本時所考慮的一個組成部分。

Let's say, I don't know in this moment, I wouldn't give a figure, but I don't know if, Luca, you could have an estimate.

比方說，我現在不知道，我不會給出一個數字，但我不知道，盧卡，你是否可以有一個估計。

There will be some additional cost due to the restructuring.

由於重組，將會產生一些額外費用。

There will be some additional cost.

會有一些額外費用。

We are still putting together the numbers and -- but certainly, we need to consider, on top of what you just mentioned before, some severance that we're going to need to materialize the synergies on the fixed cost.

我們仍在匯總這些數字，但當然，除了您之前提到的之外，我們還需要考慮一些遣散費，以實現固定成本的協同效應。

And our next question comes from the line of Stephen Gengaro from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stephen Gengaro。

Just -- I think 2 things.

只是──我認為有兩件事。

One, just a follow-up on Marc's question.

一，只是馬克問題的後續。

Those costs associated with the integration, are they part of your flat EBITDA margin guidance for 1Q?

與整合相關的成本是否屬於第一季 EBITDA 利潤率固定指引的一部分？

Or are they not included in that number?

或者他們沒有包含在這個數字中？

Included.

包括。

I mean, when I say -- I think this is a forecast.

我的意思是，當我說——我認為這是一個預測。

But in -- for the first Q, we expect to be able to reach a margin in line with the fourth quarter, including this, let's say, extraordinary expenditure for the integration of IPSCO and its first restructuring that we will incur between now and end of March.

但在第一個季度，我們預計能夠達到與第四季度一致的利潤率，其中包括，比如說，用於 IPSCO 整合和我們將在現在到年底之間進行的首次重組的額外支出三月的。

Okay.

好的。

And then I guess 2 other things, actually.

實際上，我猜還有另外兩件事。

The first is, if we looked at IPSCO's numbers from 2018 and we sort of thought about some decremental margins to get to negative EBITDA, it seems like the revenue run rate on a quarterly basis is kind of like in the $175 million to $200 million range right now.

首先，如果我們查看 IPSCO 2018 年的數據，並考慮一些遞減的利潤以實現負 EBITDA，那麼季度收入運行率似乎在 1.75 億美元至 2 億美元之間現在。

Is that a reasonable guess for the first quarter?

這是對第一季的合理猜測嗎？

Can you say again, because -- to understand it?

你能再說一遍，因為──理解嗎？

So I think IPSCO did about -- it seems like IPSCO did about $1.3 billion in revenue in 2018.

所以我認為 IPSCO 在 2018 年的收入似乎約為 13 億美元。

And just looking at what the market has done and looking at the fact that they've moved to an EBITDA negative position in the fourth -- third and fourth quarters of '19, it seems like their quarterly revenue is running a little bit under $200 million.

只要看看市場的表現，再看看他們在 19 年第四季、第三季和第四季的 EBITDA 為負值的事實，他們的季度收入似乎略低於 200 美元百萬。

Is that a reasonable starting point?

這是一個合理的起點嗎？

I think it's, I would say, even lower than what you mentioned.

我認為，我想說，甚至比你提到的還要低。

I mean, the compression in revenue that happens during the 9 months, in which we completed discussion with the antitrust, has been substantial.

我的意思是，在我們與反壟斷機構完成討論的 9 個月內，收入受到了巨大的壓縮。

So the company enter to the strong squeeze for -- on the top line, well below, let's say, in the fourth quarter, the $200 million that you mentioned, and on a negative EBITDA that also is relevant in this model.

因此，該公司進入了強勁的擠壓階段——在營收上，遠低於你提到的第四季度的 2 億美元，並且在該模型中也存在相關的負 EBITDA。

Now this will change in the first quarter.

現在，這種情況將在第一季發生改變。

But in -- fourth quarter has been below what you mentioned as a top line for IPSCO.

但第四季的 IPSCO 營收低於您所提到的水平。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one final one.

然後只有最後一件事。

When you think about your Rig Direct model and you think about moving IPSCO volumes through Rig Direct, based on conversations with customers that you've had since the deal closed, are you -- what's your sort of optimism around how rapidly you can kind of get the IPSCO volumes ramp back up through the Rig Direct distribution system?

當您考慮您的 Rig Direct 模式並考慮透過 Rig Direct 轉移 IPSCO 銷售時，根據交易完成後您與客戶的對話，您對能夠以多快的速度實現目標持何種樂觀態度？透過Rig Direct 分發系統恢復IPSCO 磁碟區？

Well, at this time, will be Tenaris acting as a whole, expanding this portfolio with the existing client and establishing, let's say, contract some of the client, existing client also of IPSCO.

好吧，此時，泰納瑞斯將作為一個整體，與現有客戶擴大這一產品組合，並與一些客戶（包括 IPSCO 的現有客戶）建立合約。

We will gain ground, I think, during 2020, pretty fast.

我認為，我們將在 2020 年取得進展，速度相當快。

But I will look how the client are reacting and if you see room for this catch-up and the rebuilding of the customer base and enhancing the expansion of the customer base.

但我會看看客戶的反應如何，以及是否看到追趕、重建客戶群和加強客戶群擴張的空間。

Yes, Paolo.

是的，保羅。

First of all, we need to mention that we have a commitment that was taken by IPSCO.

首先，我們需要提及 IPSCO 所做的承諾。

And of course, we're going to respect those commitments.

當然，我們將尊重這些承諾。

So I mean the speed at which you're going to be switching to Rig Direct also depends on the previous commitment that -- of what they can mine.

所以我的意思是，你切換到 Rig Direct 的速度也取決於先前的承諾——他們可以開採什麼。

Going into the specific question.

進入具體問題。

Well, you don't see this any more difficult than what we did at the beginning.

好吧，你不會發現這比我們一開始做的更困難。

Actually, we see this much easier because let's remember that we started from scratch in 2015, and in 2017, we were already in the range of 60% of our sales.

實際上，我們看到這一點要容易得多，因為讓我們記住，我們在 2015 年從頭開始，到 2017 年，我們已經達到了銷售額的 60%。

Today, the understanding of the U.S. customer base is much higher than what we have at the beginning.

今天，對美國客戶群的了解比我們一開始的了解要高得多。

So we don't have to go in and explain everything from scratch.

所以我們不必從頭開始解釋一切。

So I see this happening through 2020.

所以我認為這種情況在 2020 年都會發生。

And according also to the commitments that were taken by IPSCO in the past.

並根據 IPSCO 過去所做的承諾。

But I believe we can complete this through this year.

但我相信我們可以在今年完成這個任務。

And our next question comes from the line of Sahar Islam from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Sahar Islam。

If I can start with another one on IPSCO, please.

如果我可以從 IPSCO 上開始另一篇文章，請。

How should we think about the normalized through the cycle margins at IPSCO?

我們該如何考慮 IPSCO 週期裕度的標準化？

And how would that be different under your management versus previous management?

在您的管理下與先前的管理有何不同？

I'm not sure, I mean, the normalized.

我不確定，我的意思是標準化。

In this -- in the integration that we are carried on in this, really, we will manage the entire system in a unified way since day 1. So it's correct to say the level of invoicing of IPSCO went down through 2019.

在這方面——在我們正在進行的整合中，實際上，我們將從第一天起就以統一的方式管理整個系統。因此，可以正確地說 IPSCO 的發票水平在 2019 年有所下降。

It touched around $200 million in the third Q and then went down again substantially in the fourth Q. But at this point in time, we are looking at this as a Tenaris challenge, would be difficult to understand or to separate IPSCO from Tenaris.

它在第三季度觸及約 2 億美元，然後在第四季度再次大幅下降。但此時，我們將其視為泰納瑞斯的挑戰，很難理解或將 IPSCO 與泰納瑞斯分開。

We are looking at our combined market share, and I would say that it will not be something like a normalized level of IPSCO operation.

我們正在研究我們的綜合市場份額，我想說這不會是 IPSCO 營運的正常水平。

We will also allocate material in the most efficient mill for rolling, for casting, for finishing, for heat treatment in a system that will be based on many different mills in the U.S. What we think we should do, and we are very confident we could do, that we will be able to establish the leadership that Tenaris has in volume, in service and in technology and our market share, which get to the level that we design and we have in mind when we launched the acquisition of IPSCO more than 1 year ago.

我們還將在一個基於美國許多不同軋機的系統中，在最高效的軋機中分配材料，用於軋製、鑄造、精加工和熱處理。我們認為我們應該做什麼，我們非常有信心我們可以這樣做，我們將能夠建立泰納瑞斯在數量、服務和技術以及市場份額方面的領先地位，達到我們設計的水平，以及我們在發起收購IPSCO 時所考慮的水平超過 1一年前。

And then my second question can be away from the U.S. Can we get some more color on pricing in the international markets, please?

然後我的第二個問題可以遠離美國。我們可以了解更多有關國際市場定價的資訊嗎？

Thank you, Sahar.

謝謝你，薩哈爾。

I would ask Gabriel to give us -- to give a view how we perceive the tension to this up to now and further condition.

我想請加布里埃爾給我們一個觀點，讓我們了解我們如何看待迄今為止和進一步的情況所帶來的緊張局勢。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Paolo.

謝謝你，保羅。

Sahar, pricing in the (inaudible) international market remain competitive.

薩哈爾，（聽不清楚）國際市場的定價仍具有競爭力。

This really has decoupled from the Pipe Logix dynamic that we're mentioning before.

這確實與我們之前提到的 Pipe Logix 動態脫鉤了。

So there is not a direct link.

所以沒有直接的聯繫。

There is a very limited impact of the Pipe Logix into the -- into our formulas of some of our contracts in international market, but this is very limited.

Pipe Logix 對我們國際市場上一些合約的公式的影響非常有限，但這也是非常有限的。

We have a positive momentum in our average pricing, given our backlog of enriched mix due to the gas developments in Middle East and some offshore as well.

鑑於中東和一些海上天然氣開發導致我們積壓了豐富的混合物，我們的平均定價呈現出積極的勢頭。

So year-over-year, the pricing moves in a positive dynamic within a competitive environment.

因此，與去年同期相比，定價在競爭環境中呈現正面動態變化。

And we also see some tightness in some specific niches of our service, corrosion-resistant alloys, where we're able to push some price increases.

我們也看到我們的服務的某些特定領域（耐腐蝕合金）存在一些緊張，我們可以在這些領域推動價格上漲。

But this is a limited impact in the overall portfolio.

但這對整體投資組合的影響有限。

It's a little bit of the dynamic at the general level.

這是一般層面上的一點動態。

And our next question will come from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Mediobanca 的 Alessandro Pozzi。

My first question is on cash flow for 2020.

我的第一個問題是關於2020年的現金流。

Just wondering, in particular, how do you expect working capital to evolve?

只是想知道，特別是，您預計營運資金將如何發展？

Clearly, we've seen a positive contribution in 2019.

顯然，我們在 2019 年看到了積極的貢獻。

I was wondering how much positive contribution do you expect, if any, from working capital in 2020?

我想知道您預計2020年營運資金會產生多少正面貢獻（如果有的話）？

Thank you, Alessandro.

謝謝你，亞歷山德羅。

We also -- we continue to intervene on the entire supply chain, on the lead time.

我們也繼續對整個供應鏈的交貨時間進行幹預。

And we think that the integration of IPSCO will also support after the initial period in which we have to reduce the inventory that we are receiving with IPSCO.

我們認為，在我們必須減少 IPSCO 收到的庫存的初始階段之後，IPSCO 的整合也將提供支援。

We will continue to reduce inventory, and we expect to have positive contribution in the range of some $200 million or in this range during 2020.

我們將繼續減少庫存，預計 2020 年將做出約 2 億美元的積極貢獻。

So this will contribute to our cash flow.

所以這將有助於我們的現金流。

We are confident that we will get a very strong cash flow in 2020.

我們有信心在 2020 年獲得非常強勁的現金流。

The recovery in the margin in the second part of the year, combined with a relatively contained level of investment and reduction in working capital, should allow us to be able to give a very robust cash flow in 2020.

今年下半年利潤率的回升，加上相對有限的投資水準和營運資本的減少，應該使我們能夠在 2020 年提供非常強勁的現金流。

Do you have in mind what net cash you could end up with at year-end?

您是否知道年底時您能獲得多少淨現金？

As I can tell you, we can -- always considering, let's say, the situation as it is today without, let's say, relevant slowdown of the economy or reduction in the level of rigs.

正如我可以告訴你的那樣，我們可以始終考慮當今的情況，而無需考慮經濟放緩或鑽機數量減少的情況。

We consider that, as we mentioned before, we can have a level of cash flow similar to the level that we had in 2019.

我們認為，正如我們之前提到的，我們可以擁有與 2019 年相似的現金流水準。

Okay.

好的。

And just 1 thing on the CapEx.

資本支出方面只有一件事。

I think you mentioned, say, $50 million to, say, $60 million.

我想你提到了 5000 萬美元到 6000 萬美元。

Does that include the IPSCO CapEx as well?

這也包括 IPSCO 資本支出嗎？

Yes, we are including the investments that we are planning to undertake in the -- especially in the Koppel steel shop, to advance in the capability to supply the entire need of the U.S. operation from Koppel.

是的，我們計劃在科佩爾鋼鐵廠進行投資，以提高科佩爾滿足美國業務全部需求的能力。

Okay.

好的。

That's fine.

沒關係。

And just the last 1 on the -- you mentioned the global OCTG demand is likely to fall in 2020.

就在最後 1，您提到 2020 年全球 OCTG 需求可能會下降。

I was wondering if you can maybe give us a bit more color on where you see -- which regions you see more strength there.

我想知道你是否可以給我們更多關於你所看到的地方的資訊——你看到哪些區域更強大。

Well, I will say that in 2020, we are considering that it will be -- there will be a low recovery in Argentina.

嗯，我想說的是，到 2020 年，我們正在考慮阿根廷的復甦將會緩慢。

We do not expect so much from the demand in Argentina in the first part of the year until some of the key issue of the economic plan will be defined and negotiation also for the debt will be completed.

在經濟計畫的一些關鍵問題確定以及債務談判完成之前，我們對今年上半年阿根廷的需求預期不會太高。

But then we will see.

但隨後我們就會看到。

Argentina could be [capped].

阿根廷可能會被[封頂]。

It could be, let's say, increasing, expanding the market in the second half.

可以說，下半年市場會增加、擴大。

And second area that, in our view, is important is the Gulf of Mexico from the -- both the American and the Mexican side.

我們認為，第二個重要的區域是來自美國和墨西哥一側的墨西哥灣。

The international oil company are working actively in Mexico.

這家國際石油公司正在墨西哥積極開展工作。

But in the Gulf of Mexico, we are seeing project going on.

但在墨西哥灣，我們看到項目正在進行中。

We have the contract with ADNOC that was mentioned in my prepared remarks.

我們與阿布達比國家石油公司簽訂了合同，我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點。

We have a very large contract, the majority of the need of ADNOC.

我們有一份非常大的合同，大部分是ADNOC需要的。

We estimate around $1.9 billion in the period of 5 years.

我們估計 5 年內的營收約為 19 億美元。

This will kick in during the second part of the year, in our view, depends also from how fast ADNOC will work on this.

我們認為，這將在今年下半年開始實施，這也取決於阿布達比國家石油公司在這方面的工作速度。

Another area that could be positive for 2020 second part, is Brazil.

另一個可能對 2020 年第二階段產生正面影響的地區是巴西。

We have an important market share in Brazil offshore.

我們在巴西近海擁有重要的市場佔有率。

If, as it seems, Petrobras and private company -- international company are maintaining the programs of drilling, this will be also a positive area.

如果巴西國家石油公司和私人公司——國際公司正在維持鑽探計劃，這也將是一個積極的領域。

One is a niche but it's still important is the connector that we sell worldwide for the offshore project are also an area in which we will expand our sales.

其中一個是利基市場，但仍然重要的是，我們在全球範圍內為海上項目銷售的連接器也是我們將擴大銷售的一個領域。

So these are the area in which we may have, let's say, positive development during the course of 2020 that may compensate for a relatively weak demand due to the destocking in Saudi and the Argentina situation as far as we can see today.

因此，我們可以說，這些領域在 2020 年期間可能會出現積極的發展，這可能會彌補由於沙烏地阿拉伯和阿根廷去庫存而導致的相對疲軟的需求，就我們今天所看到的情況而言。

Our next question will come from the line of Alan Spence from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Alan Spence。

I've just got 2. The first one, regarding those extraordinary expenses, you mentioned -- still related to IPSCO for Q1.

我剛剛收到 2。第一個，關於您提到的那些非常費用，仍然與第一季的 IPSCO 有關。

Can you give us a rough ballpark or estimate of what those would total during the quarter?

您能否給我們一個粗略的大概或估計本季的總金額？

Extraordinary expenses of IPSCO, Luca?

IPSCO的額外開支，盧卡？

Yes, Paolo.

是的，保羅。

I mean, as I said before, we are still finalizing the number, but we expect this to be in the range of $15 million to $20 million.

我的意思是，正如我之前所說，我們仍在最終確定這個數字，但我們預計該數字將在 1500 萬美元至 2000 萬美元之間。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Apologies if I missed you saying that number earlier.

如果我錯過了你之前說的號碼，我深感抱歉。

So the second one, when you talk about the second half '20 improvement in IPSCO and it turned into a positive contribution, is that driven by any forecasts around improved pricing?

那麼第二個問題，當你談到 20 世紀下半年 IPSCO 的改進並轉化為積極的貢獻時，這是由任何有關定價改進的預測推動的嗎？

Or is that predominantly due to your expectations around synergies and maybe some better volumes?

或者這主要是由於您對協同效應以及可能更好的銷量的期望？

As I mentioned before, I think the present level of pricing in Pipe Logix is difficult to sustain.

正如我之前提到的，我認為 Pipe Logix 目前的定價水準很難維持。

So it's worth assuming that there would be -- there could be some limited rebound but -- at least in this.

因此，值得假設的是，至少在這方面，可能會出現一些有限的反彈。

But mainly, what we are counting on the synergies that Luca was mentioning before due to allocation, to restructuring of the production system, efficiency in this and some cost reduction that we can get in working -- integrating the 2 companies.

但主要是，我們指望盧卡之前提到的協同效應，由於分配、生產系統的重組、效率以及我們在工作中可以實現的一些成本降低——整合兩家公司。

And our next question will come from the Lillian Starke from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的莉蓮史塔克。

Just 1 quick question from my end.

我最後只想問一個問題。

You mentioned the accumulated inventory at IPSCO.

您提到了 IPSCO 的累積庫存。

I was just wondering if, at any point, do you think we could expect an impairment on the back of this.

我只是想知道，在任何時候，您是否認為我們會因此而受到損害。

Or are these tubulars that you expect to be putting in the market, just at a lower margin?

還是您希望將這些管材投放市場，只是利潤率較低？

Well, according to a contract, we are reviewing the inventory.

嗯，根據合同，我們正在審查庫存。

We will sure assess quality condition of inventory, and then we have to close the contract and the agreement with TMK based on this.

我們一定會評估庫存的品質狀況，然後我們必須在此基礎上與TMK簽訂合約和協議。

Once we completed this, I expect no impairment.

一旦我們完成了這項工作，我預計不會造成任何損害。

We expect to be able to sell to the market.

我們預計能夠向市場銷售。

But as I mentioned before, the cost of sales for this product and this inventory is higher than the average cost of sales for our -- the material we provide from the rest of the facility.

但正如我之前提到的，該產品和庫存的銷售成本高於我們從工廠其他部分提供的材料的平均銷售成本。

So this is part of the drag that we will have in the first.

所以這是我們在第一個過程中遇到的阻力的一部分。

Let me tell you that gradually, the new production and the new material, in our view, will be competitive in term of cost after the dimension and the restructuring that we will have.

讓我告訴你，在我們看來，在我們將進行的尺寸和重組之後，新的生產和新材料將逐漸在成本方面具有競爭力。

Now we didn't complete the first stage, which is the overall assessment of inventory.

現在我們還沒有完成第一階段，即庫存的整體評估。

We have, according to the contract, 75 days to complete this.

根據合同，我們有 75 天的時間來完成這項工作。

So in general, this is the sense we have.

所以總的來說，這就是我們的感覺。

There are no major issue coming from this.

這沒有什麼大問題。

And our next question will come from the line of Rodrigo Almeida from Santander.

我們的下一個問題將來自桑坦德銀行的羅德里戈·阿爾梅達。

So I have a couple of questions from my side.

我有幾個問題。

The first one is related to the IPSCO acquisition and the margins that you mentioned at the 20% level for the second half of 2020.

第一個與 IPSCO 收購以及您提到的 2020 年下半年 20% 的利潤率有關。

Just a quick question.

只是一個簡單的問題。

If you do include the synergies that you mentioned, the $80 million to $100 million in synergies for this 20% margin for the second half of 2020.

如果你確實包括你提到的協同效應，那麼 2020 年下半年 20% 的利潤率將帶來 8,000 萬至 1 億美元的協同效應。

And my second question is related to the JV you made in Russia, in Siberia.

我的第二個問題與你們在俄羅斯西伯利亞建立的合資企業有關。

If you -- how is that going, if you're spending any cash from that?

如果你——如果你從中花掉任何現金的話，進展如何？

And if you could -- if you are, if you could give us a breakdown of how much is going towards that, that would be interesting to know also.

如果你可以——如果你可以，如果你能給我們詳細說明為此付出了多少努力，了解這一點也會很有趣。

Thank you, Rodrigo.

謝謝你，羅德里戈。

On the first point, when I mentioned the recovery of the margin to get back to the range of 20%, I'm considering this is the margin for all of the Tenaris and is considering all of the element company to it, including synergy that we plan to have in -- gradually into this.

關於第一點，當我提到利潤率恢復到20%的範圍時，我認為這是所有泰納瑞斯的利潤率，並且正在考慮所有元素公司的利潤率，包括協同效應我們計劃逐步進入這一領域。

We mentioned $80 million to $100 million in the annualized figure.

我們提到年化數字為 8,000 萬至 1 億美元。

But we can expect it to enter -- starting gradually, I mean.

但我們可以預期它會進入——我的意思是逐漸開始。

Say gradually but at least we plan to reach it by the fourth quarter, for sure.

逐步地說，但至少我們計劃在第四季之前實現這一目標，這是肯定的。

The second issue on the Russian venture, we are proceeding for our investment.

關於俄羅斯合資企業的第二期，我們正在進行投資。

We will be investing during 2020.

我們將在 2020 年進行投資。

Maybe, Gabriel, you can comment on how things are going on in the -- in Russia.

也許，加布里埃爾，你可以評論一下俄羅斯正在發生的事情。

Yes, Paolo, thank you very much.

是的，保羅，非常感謝你。

Rodrigo, indeed, JV in Russia is progressing very well.

事實上，羅德里戈在俄羅斯的合資企業進展順利。

We have a great understanding and dialogue and cooperation with our partner, Severstal.

我們與我們的合作夥伴謝韋爾鋼鐵公司有著良好的理解、對話與合作。

We are advancing full speed in the engineering and the construction, targeting as planned commission -- commissioning of the facility by the second half of 2021.

我們正在全速推進工程和建設，目標是按計劃在 2021 年下半年投入使用。

So we're looking forward to complete that facility, another line of business.

因此，我們期待完成該設施，這是另一條業務線。

In terms of CapEx, our provision is around $70 million for 2020 and probably a similar number or a bit lower into 2021.

就資本支出而言，我們在 2020 年的撥款約為 7,000 萬美元，到 2021 年可能會是類似數字或略低。

This figure is not included -- I mean, is in the $350 million --

這個數字不包括在內——我的意思是，在 3.5 億美元中——

No, it's not included in the $360 million because this is our participation in the joint venture.

不，它不包括在 3.6 億美元中，因為這是我們參與的合資企業。

So we are expecting to -- our investment in 2020 will be $70 million.

因此，我們預計 2020 年的投資將達到 7,000 萬美元。

And in 2019, we invested about $20 million.

2019年，我們投資了約2,000萬美元。

This is our participation in the venture, so it's not considered a part of the $360 million that we are mentioning is CapEx.

這是我們參與的合資企業，因此它不被視為我們提到的 3.6 億美元資本支出的一部分。

And it is our...

這是我們的...

But are included in the overall vision of the cash flow that I gave before.

但是都包含在我之前給出的現金流的整體願景中。

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time.

目前我不會提出任何進一步的問題。

I'd like to turn the call back over to Giovanni for any closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回喬瓦尼，讓其結束語。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks a lot for joining us in the call, and we hope to see you in London, April 3. Thank you.

非常感謝您參加我們的電話會議，我們希望 4 月 3 日在倫敦見到您。謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。