Tenaris SA (TS) 2011 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q1 2011 Tenaris S A earnings conference call. My name is Veronica and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will be conducting a Q-and-A session towards the end of today's conference.

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Mr. Giovanni Sardagna, Investor Relations Director. Please proceed.

Thank you Veronica, and welcome to Tenaris 2011 first quarter conference call. Before we start I would like to remind you as usual that we will be discussing forward-looking information in the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied herein. Factors that could affect those results include those mentioned in the Company 20-F and other documents filed with the SEC.

With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO; Guillermo Vogel, Vice President of Finance and member of our Board of Directors; Ricardo Soler, our Chief Financial Officer; German Cura, the Managing Director of our North American Operation, and Alejandro Lammertyn, the Managing Director of our Eastern Hemisphere operation.

During the first quarter of 2011, sales increased 42% to $2.3 billion compared to $1.6 billion recorded in the first quarter of last year and 13% sequentially. Our EBITDA for the quarter reached $570 million which was 31% higher than the corresponding quarter of 2010 and 11% higher sequentially.

Our EBITDA in the first quarter of 2011 included $17 million of provision on stocks and receivables in Libya. Sequentially our seamless sales volumes increased 12% as we benefited from the realization of the previous quarter delayed shipments of line pipe products to the Middle East and a strong recovery in shipments to Canada.

Welded volume sales always excluding projects were sequentially 5% higher as we continued to benefit from the healthy operating environment in the main regions in which we operate.

Average selling prices of our Tube division increased 2% sequentially, but they remained at the same level of last year. During the quarter, our sales of high-end seamless products were 48% of our total seamless volumes compared to 45% recorded during the first quarter of last year and 47% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Results of our other operating segments have also recorded significant year-on-year and sequential increases. And we believe that during the remaining quarters of the year they could increase further.

Now, I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

Thank you Giovanni, and good morning to all of you. This week marks the 10th anniversary since we introduced the Tenaris brand. We have come a long way then transforming the Company to a major player in North America and the sector leader in quality, technology and service for the oil and gas industry worldwide.

As a new cycle of investment in oil and gas proceeds, we are uniquely positioned to respond to the needs of our customers throughout the world as they expand their operation and undertake increasingly complex projects. Around the world, oil and gas drilling activity is growing fueled by favorable oil prices and increasing use of natural gas in power generation and industrial production.

Political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East has increased concern about the reliability of supply. The severe damage to the Fukushima nuclear complex from the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan is going to question plans for new nuclear facility worldwide and we can envisage a larger reward for gas and LNG worldwide.

These factor are driving additional activity aimed at expanding spare capacity and activating medium and long-term projects. Most of these activities focus on complex field and unconventional application, and in this environment Tenaris can deploy all of its potential.

Our facility in Japan were not damaged by the earthquake and we were able to resume operation quickly. We are supporting our employees whose families were affected and many of our employees worldwide expressed their solidarity with the victims through the nation which were matched by Company funds.

In the OTCT this week we introduced the first of a new line of premium connection, the TenarisHydril Wedge Series successor. This new technology that will be gradually introduced into the market represent a breakthrough in managing very harsh environment such as high pressure, high temperature wells and wells which require a high torque, compression and bending requirements.

This new technology will be an important component of our differentiation strategy for the future. We have a strong presence in the Americas where demand will continue at a good level and we have increased our focus in the Eastern Hemisphere where activity is increasing particularly in the Middle East and in areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Australia where complex offshore products are being developed with our extensive portfolio products supported by testing and development activities.

Our new mill in Mexico which is already in operation and our global organization and resources we're confident that we can take advantage of the opportunities that this cycle will (technical difficulty).

Second, we are -- we will be doing official inauguration of our plant in Mexico on May 17th, and President Calderon will come to Veracruz for this ceremony. We're very happy with this and looking forward to this opportunity.

We expect that this favorable demand outlook should translate into further growth in our sales and operating results throughout the year. Thank you. We are ready for your questions.

(Operator Instructions) Ole Slorer from Morgan Stanley.

Thank you very much and congratulations with the 10-year anniversary.

Well, thank you, Ole.

It's amazing to think about the kind of brand that you've built here over the past 10 years. It's impressive.

My first question comes from a little bit of a comparison with your sequential revenue numbers that you've posted here for the international markets, by international I mean outside the North America, because when comparing this with what the big four service companies delivered sequentially, it's quite a big difference.

The big four service companies had an average international revenue decline into the first quarter of 5%. Of course a lot of that was to do with the slowdown in North Africa and the Middle East. But still you had on average across the regions more than 10% revenue growth.

So how do you see this? What was the real reason for the very strong particularly Europe and South America where you had the 17% and 18% revenue growth compared with minus 3% to 5% for the other big service companies?

Could you explain the difference? Is your business an early cycle component as the drilling commences or was there a restocking component or what was the nature of this big difference in performance?

Well, thank you Ole for your question. On one side remember we had some short-term effect because of the delayed shipments and now we arrive in December we had some shift in the shipments that it shift into the first quarter and this also supported the quarter.

On the negative side we had some negative effect on North Africa. But as a whole I would say that our business improved and our demand and shipments improved in almost all of the region. I would ask for some comment here on how we see the -- this quarter and also the outcome that we can see for the future in the East Hemisphere first. If Alejandro, you can make some comment.

Yes, Ole. As you have seen, well, we have a stable situation in international in this quarter and we are of course seeing a growth in the Eastern Hemisphere in the coming quarters driven mainly by Middle East where there -- Saudi Aramco comes into recover the reduction of oil coming from Libya and they are restarting a plan to go back to the 130 rigs that they had in 2008.

These have driven a high tendering process for our material that has been even beyond what they have requested in the last three years, all combined. We see this driving also in the emirates where Abu Dhabi, ADCO, ADMA, SAD Co are requiring an important volume to sustain their level of production and moving to the 3.5 billion barrels per day in a couple of years.

This situation is also moving in -- considering the Middle East. In Qatar where we are seeing some move in the North Field because of the increased demand of LNG driven by the requirements in Southeast Asia mainly driven by the Japanese situation. So what we are seeing clearly in the Middle East is a higher growth.

The other areas of growth that we're seeing are in Sub-Saharan Africa. All the exploration cycle has increased based on the availability of rigs coming from Gulf of Mexico. A lot of activity coming in West Africa and the eastern parts of Africa that will drive our operations.

Also we are seeing due to LNG an increased activity in Australia. That will become a major supplier for LNG for the Southeast Asia. And in the --

One question.

Yes.

What is the timing of your sales relative to the timing of the drilling programs that your customers are planning? Is it three months lead indicator or is it a six months lead indicator? So could you explain a little bit?

It sounds like this is more than just restocking. It sounds like this is a strong leading indicator, your revenues here, that the international drilling is about to finally start picking up a bit.

Well, one comment on these, because just to separate -- if we look at the reason for our increased international sale in the first quarter, really the driver in Europe some of the delayed shipment is important. In South America, dynamic of the market in Colombia has been a factor in our increase. But not only Colombia, also Argentina and part of our sales in Brazil and in the rest of Latin America has been an important contribution to our first quarter.

Remember in Europe we also have additional demand from our industrial and line pipe business. I mean, Europe -- we perceive a clear recovery of demand in this end. Also some disruption operation of some competitor is adding demand in the first quarter.

Now as Alejandro was explaining, in the Middle East even if this quarter was in line with last quarter our expectation are for a strong increase of demand in the second part of the year. I would say that Middle East is back and we will see actual shipment to support the program of development in Saudi, in Kuwait and in the rest of the region probably to -- between the third and the fourth quarter of this year.

This is, let's say, the lead time of the program that Alejandro was identifying. One interesting point is South East Asia, Far East and Oceania because here we have additional sale in this quarter. An interesting perspective in the long run, but even by LNG.

Yes.

This would be a factor probably in 2012.

We've heard from -- separately from about three different large oil companies as of late that they're starting to get concerned about the ability to source premium tubulars for ultra deepwater application, particularly in West Africa. And I presume that having seen one of the three suppliers that re-enable to deliver because the power outages in Japan might have had something to do with it.

But could you explain a little bit about what you're seeing here on the demand side for deepwater and whether they're -- and whether these comments from these customers -- this gives some context around the ability to supply on whether the market has to become visibly tighter for premium tubulars in deepwater?

Well, I really think that we are in the beginning of a new cycle in the energy sector. On all of the three segments, let's say recovery of oil and gas in existing field discovery -- and discovery is mainly focused on deepwater and unconventional like the project we see in Canada and in other part of the world for heavy oil or SAGD and so forth.

So on the three of that them; but deepwater, there is a renewed activity from what we perceive on exploration. Usually, the requirements of this field are very demanding. And the regulation and the occurrences in the Gulf of Mexico last year and the new regulation, the RP-96 that could become like a standard I would say for complex deepwater operations are driving demand in the very high segment of our production.

Now, I don't see today what you would say a limited supply because we're at the beginning of the cycle. But if this exploration project turns into development later on in 2012, I think there will be serious demand for products that require absolute guarantee of casing integrity, ability to reach -- extend and to reach offshore, very high wide clearance for operating with different tools in the column.

This is very important. The new series -- the 600 series that is a semi-flush Wedge that has outstanding performance in term of resistance from different point of view, is exactly where it's aimed to. Now, we are in the testing process. We will gradually expand the range of products to cover the entire application.

I think there will be tight market for this going on into 2012, gradual increasing because LNG is also important from the point of view of deepwater, tight requirement, complex environment.

So there could be, I think, a tight market for this product. I think we're ready and from a industrial point of view and from a broader point of view, reduction on this from my point of view will be more in 2012 or late 2011 than in the coming quarter, immediately.

Sounds like the 600, the new TenarisHydril could after place the thread and couple connections for deepwater and therefore reduce weight quite a bit? Is that part of the idea here?

Well, the part of the idea -- the complex project will requires always a combination of products. But the series 600 is greatly designed, as you're saying, to allow a slim weld design with a lot of space and clearance for additional tooling and communication system in the well. So it's designed for the new requirement of the deepwater.

Then in its turn is associated with exploration projects, is associated with LNG and in the end, from our point of view, is a key part of the new cycle.

Okay. Well, thank you very much for a thorough run-through. Thank you.

Bill Sanchez from Howard Weil.

Good morning, thank you for the time.

Good morning.

My first question, just to circle back on deepwater in the Gulf of Mexico specifically. There's been nine deepwater plants approved since the moratorium has been lifted. Only one has come in the form of a new well, if you will.

Most offshore service companies or also service companies acknowledge that they really can't predict the timing of a true deepwater recovery in the Gulf. But as you talked about in the earlier question, given that your products are ordered early in the well plants, could you just spend a moment talking about how you see the Gulf of Mexico deepwater market unfolding here as we go through the balance of 2011 and into next year?

Yes. Thank you for the question. One general comment; I really think that the sense we get from the contact with our plants is that they are concerned about the reliability of the supply chain for oil in the medium term.

The African -- North African turmoil today is limited to Libya, some impact on Syria and Yemen, but in the end you perceive that something that -- hopefully not, but could spread to areas that are very important for the energy -- the energy supply in Europe and Far East.

So in this environment, I think that also the attention on the reducing energy dependency in the state is really rising fast. There are many actions that could be taken, and will -- I think will be taken in gas and in oil.

In oil, the -- the offshore is probably the most important action that will be taken, and I think it will move but I will ask German to expand a little on what we really see in the demand of our clients and if these permits are turning into wells, and turning into rigs, and in which timing we may expect these to happen.

Thank you, Paolo. Good morning, Bill. Well, in fact, following the temperaments, Will, and you're right, we cannot really predict to what extent Gulf of Mexico would develop and exactly when. But we tend to say that 2011, the rest of 2011 will be more of a transition year than not.

Now, as we speak, we're talking to a good number of operators, both majors and independents and some of them are, in fact, ordering the other part of the wells. So we are presently discussing taking orders, different degrees of development, but we are already working in Gulf of Mexico and we're already supplying to some extent some of the potential Gulf of Mexico new wells requirements.

German, can you refresh us, if you don't mind, on what your OCTG market share was in the Gulf of Mexico deepwater prior to Macondo?

Well, Will, we don't really disclose this specific, but we typically say that we have a large presence, a very, very important presence we have premium connection technology in Gulf of Mexico prior to Macondo and it appears the 600 series development would allow us to sustain or expand that.

Okay. And if I could just one follow-up. German, I can still stick with you since you addressed -- international was addressed earlier. Just in North America, we look at revenues of 14% sequentially.

I know in the opening comments, we heard about seamless volumes up nicely in Canada, Mexico down. I guess we would have expected perhaps more welded volume growth sequentially as part of the driver. Can you just give us your thoughts around revenues versus volumes and how we should see the balance of the year unfolding there?

Well, in generic terms, Bill, Canada or the Canadian season during the quarter was very, very strong. We had a very fairly important volume both seamless and welded in Canada. The States also grew and that offset during the quarter part of New Mexicans like reduction altogether.

Now, going forward we continue -- naturally spring break aside we continue to see in the US the possibility of potential growth. I think rig count will continue to grow to some extent, and at one point, I believe, it's going to level off.

Canada, we have big expectations for next year. Naturally, we need to transition the spring break. And as we have indicated -- and I know Guillermo could expand on this -- we continue to see Mexico during 2011 as a transition year.

Okay. And I guess there's one last one. It's fair to say when I just look at total seamless volumes for the quarter, Venezuela still is essentially a zero there. Is that fair?

I think yes. Venezuela is increasing activity. In the country the number of rigs is rising. The point is in Venezuela the credit risk and we are limiting our shipments considering what we can get and the payment that we can get.

Frankly, I think that the cash flow should be increasing and maybe we can have during this year a better payment performance. And so we may increase our sales over time.

You know the Venezuela is -- our technology is very well established there. We really are supplying a complex product there and so the price [forward] allow them to improve on the payment performance. I think we can have room for increased sales in -- during this year.

Great, thank you all for the time.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, please limit to one question and one follow-up question.

Michael LaMotte from Guggenheim Securities.

Hi, good morning, Joseph Triepke here on behalf of Michael LaMotte. A couple of questions, actually, one of them an unrelated follow-up, if I may.

First, we're hearing a lot of optimism around shale gas in Argentina. Just wondering if you could give a little bit of color on what the pace of growth might look for tubes there and how long it will be before that becomes a meaningful piece of business for you guys?

Well, I think in Argentina, the Company, Repsol and Apache are very optimistic about the availability, I mean, the reserves and the ability to have it commercially in shales. Now the question is the regulation of the sector and the price of gas are stable enough and reliable enough to justify a major deployment.

At this moment, the Company is trying to give a dimension to reserves, assets, cost of development, of the reserves. And they will consider a major -- a more substantial deployment probably next year or even in the coming quarters, but in the second part of the year at least, considering how the regulation in the sector could be.

Thanks, very helpful color. Then, just as an unrelated follow-up, just wondering will -- in your mind, do you think power problems in Japan this year might translate into reductions at Sumitomo's output and potentially provide more upside in Asia for Tenaris?

Well, I visited our operation recently in Japan. The impression I got is that it will take time for the industrial system to recover fully, because really the extent of disruption of the supply chain in which many companies were depending from supply are in the region that was most affected, this is really substantial. In the automotive, you have seen the figure for April and so on.

I still believe the differences in the eastern part of Japan and the western part, the two power grid are dependent. I think that the activity on the eastern part would be affected. I have no reason to think that the Sumitomo production system will be affected.

Our system will not, for sure, even if we may have to source some of our component from different sources, but I have no reason to think that we have a major impact on our competitor. Hopefully, the -- also Japan will recover fast and that will reduce the extent of power shortage this summer.

This will be the issue now in summer. The demand will increase. So the question is if there will be power shortage in some areas. But I don't think this will happen to our competitor.

Okay, great. Thanks for the time. I'll turn it back.

James West from Barclays Capital.

Hey, good morning. Thank you. Guys I was curious about price increases going forward. I know you have increased pricing recently.

We saw some indication to that on the -- in this quarter. When should we see a full implementation of recent price increases in the numbers? And then secondarily, when would you look to increased pricing in excess of raw material cost increases?

Well, I think the situation is very different in different segment of the market. If you look at the low-end API component, especially internationally, demand is not increasing so much in the countries, almost stable in this segment of low-end.

The real increase is in the premium component and in the more sophisticated product component, in line pipe or in OCTG. These are the area in which we are getting price increases that even today are, let's say recovering the impact of cost and in some cases above the recovery of the impact of cost.

We received this into our balance sheet, our profit and loss over time in the second part of the year because there is a lead time between the tendering, between the increased demand on the negotiation of prices and when the prices -- the product will be actually delivered.

In the case of low-end products we only -- in the international area we see a recovery of the cost, but not much more. In the case of the United States, may be the situation is leading to it. Pipelogix has shown a strong increase last month.

And I would say that here the question is increase will be there for premium products and for API products. The point is imports -- we are monitoring very closely the imports in this country that are clear like Korea that did extraordinary increase in their shipment to the United States.

This is clearly having a negative impact on prices and we will monitor closely how these unfold in the coming quarters. I don't know if German, there is something you want to add on pricing and others [again].

Well, not so much. I think the situation is fairly clear. Just to remind everybody that Pipelogix is a good proxy for, in fact, the low-end basket of products that is in fact and somehow imports -- somehow exposed to imports much more than not.

Okay. That's all from me. Thank you.

Frank McGann from Bank of America.

Yes, good day. Just following up on that in terms of overall inflation effect you're seeing beyond just raw materials in terms of wages and energy costs and production costs, how are you seeing those in the different facilities that you have and what is the expectation that that would have on margins as you go into the second half?

Well, thank you, Frank, for your question. As we mentioned in the last conference we clearly saw the inflation in raw material, in hot roll coils, in scrap, the price that we're getting up.

Now, I would say that hot roll coils is leveling off and -- or showing some decrease, some reduction. And iron ore and scrap also have shown some reduction and then they are quite volatile today.

There is a situation in which probably we can expect some volatility in the coming quarter. Now, we are anticipating some purchases of raw materials. So we are smoothing down the impact of these on our profit and loss.

We basically expect the increased cost to have the same impact in the next quarter like this quarter and then probably our margin -- I expect our margin to increase in the second part of the year. And probably in the end of the year we can expect as a whole 2011 to have a profit margin in the range of 2010.

Okay. And if you're looking at other cost like labor cost and other energy costs, other costs for operating your facilities, any pressures that you're seeing there?

Yes, we are in an environment in which our currencies are all appreciating against dollar. Our operations from Argentina, Brazil, even Mexico today and Europe, the currencies are appreciating, our cost of labor is increasing.

But as I was saying before there will be some decrease in raw materials over time that may compensate some of this effect. Also we are acting internally on improving efficiency.

On top of this remember our factory, the new plant in Mexico is coming on stream. Gradually production is increasing. By the fourth quarter of 2011 this will be really fully operational. At that point we will have a better cost mix from our plant and this will also be contributing to improving our cost structure.

Okay, thank you very much.

Amy Wong from UBS.

Hi, good afternoon, thanks for taking my question. My question is on the excess capacity that's developing.

I mean, I think there's a lot of capacity starting up in the next 12 to 18 months which would likely create some excess capacity globally. How do you see this affecting your business and what's your estimate of the excess capacity by the end of 2011 and in 2012? And perhaps you can split your view by looking at the premium in the low-end products separately. Thanks.

Well, you're right that there is lots of capacity coming in in 2011. Let's say in the second part of the year there would be capacity coming in.

But most of this capacity is in low end markets. There is a lot of capacity coming in in China that is targeting a market that is a low-end market. This will put pressure on pricing in this segment.

But I think we could preserve a reasonable margin even in this segment thanks to the loyalty of the client -- of our clients and the confidence in reliable products, I think, because in the end even in the low-end segment you want to have a reliable, very reliable product.

Low-end doesn't mean that you can accept unreliable product. When your total capacity is in premium segment, this is not so much. I mean there will be Vallourec mill in Brazil coming in, but it will take time for these mills also to move into the high premium segment.

It will not be something that happens overnight. And the marketing, that segment isn't growing. It's growing that I was saying before 2012 some of the projects in the exploration stages should turn into the development stage. Some of the additional demand and the flat for quality on part of the -- in the offshore and in other segment will take in.

So in the end, short -- understandably, I think this will be -- there will not be large imbalance, let's say, or something that will put excessive pressure on the markets.

Okay. Thank you very much for that.

Andrea Scauri from Mediobanca.

Yes, hi, good morning. My question refers to the raw materials and I just would like some more colors on the first quarter result. If I remember well in the last call you said that you were expected to use inventories of raw materials.

I was wondering what is the difference of prices of raw materials booked in your inventories compared to the current spot level to make this margin that you had in the first quarter? Thanks.

Well, we mentioned this; our inventory as you've noticed our -- we have a relatively high working capital level today. It increased between the December and the March.

Most of this is in the receivable side. Part of this is also in the value of our inventory. The value of our inventory -- with this increase so much in volume, I would say the volume is the same, but the value of our inventory is slightly higher. So you can have an idea there of the -- which is the increase in the average value of our inventories. We expect this to stabilize in the coming quarter.

Hello?

Yes, yes. We're ready to stabilize our sales in the coming quarter. But I wouldn't put a precise figure on the difference between our inventory and what we are getting from the market. There is a lot of volatility in what we -- in the value of raw material, scrap and iron ore.

Okay. Thank you very much.

At this time there are no further questions on the line. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.

Well, if there are no other questions we would like to thank you all for taking part in this call and see you in the next conference call for the next results. Thanks.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.