Tempur Sealy International Inc (TPX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Tempur Sealy Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

早上好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加泰普爾絲漣 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Aubrey Moore, investor relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者，投資者關係部門的奧布里·摩爾 (Aubrey Moore)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's call.

謝謝你，接線員。大家早上好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Joining me today are Scott Thompson, Chairman, President and CEO; and Bhaskar Rao, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A.

今天與我一起出席的還有董事長、總裁兼首席執行官斯科特·湯普森 (Scott Thompson)；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bhaskar Rao。準備好發言後，我們將開始問答環節。

This call includes forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors that could adversely affect the company's business. These factors are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including its annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, under the heading Special Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors.

本次電話會議包括受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款約束的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及不確定性，實際結果可能會因多種因素而產生重大差異，這些因素可能對公司的業務。這些因素在該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了討論，包括其 10-K 表中的年度報告和 10-Q 表中的季度報告，標題為“有關前瞻性陳述和風險因素的特別說明”。

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. This morning's commentary will also include non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of this non-GAAP financial information can be found in the accompanying press release, which has been posted on the company's investor website at investor.tempursealy.com and filed with the SEC. Our comments will supplement the detailed information provided in the press release.

任何前瞻性聲明僅代表其發布之日的情況。該公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。今天上午的評論還將包括非公認會計準則財務信息。該非 GAAP 財務信息的調節可以在隨附的新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿已發佈在該公司的投資者網站 Investor.tempursealy.com 上，並向 SEC 備案。我們的評論將補充新聞稿中提供的詳細信息。

And now with that introduction, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott.

現在，通過介紹，我很高興將電話轉給斯科特。

Thank you, Aubrey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our 2023 Second Quarter Earnings Call.

謝謝你，奧布里。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。

I'll start by sharing some highlights from our second quarter performance and then Bhaskar will review our worldwide financial performance in more detail. After that, I'll share some closing comments before we open the call up for Q&A.

我將首先分享我們第二季度業績的一些亮點，然後巴斯卡將更詳細地回顧我們的全球財務業績。之後，在我們開始問答之前，我將分享一些結束語。

Today, we are pleased to report one of the strongest second quarters in the company's history, second only to the same period in 2021. Importantly, these results were delivered against headwinds from a less-favorable market than we expected, the impact of which was partially mitigated by company-specific performance.

今天，我們很高興地報告公司歷史上最強勁的第二季度之一，僅次於 2021 年同期。重要的是，這些業績是在市場不如我們預期的不利因素的情況下取得的，其影響是公司特定績效在一定程度上緩解了這一影響。

Sales growth for the quarter was 5%. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was consistent with prior years after absorbing higher interest costs, major launch costs and elevated taxes. GAAP EPS grew 2%. We believe these results are a reflection of our innovative products, strong sales culture, solid expense controls and our passion for execution.

本季度銷售額增長 5%。在吸收了較高的利息成本、主要發射成本和增加的稅收後，本季度調整後每股收益與往年一致。 GAAP 每股收益增長 2%。我們相信這些結果反映了我們的創新產品、強大的銷售文化、可靠的費用控制和我們的執行熱情。

In our largest market, the U.S., we believe industry units declined at least low double digits in the quarter, resulting in historically low aggregate industry volumes for the quarter and first half of the year. Overall, we believe the U.S. market has stabilized at trough unit levels, with the upper end of the market demonstrating a bit more resilience compared to the entry-level market.

在我們最大的市場美國，我們認為本季度的行業單位數量至少下降了兩位數，導致本季度和上半年的行業總量處於歷史低位。總體而言，我們認為美國市場已穩定在低位單位水平，與入門級市場相比，高端市場表現出更強的彈性。

Today's results demonstrate the robust earnings power and cash flow attributes of the business, as we realized solid earnings and cash flow against this challenging backdrop. As we look to the back half of the year, we anticipate U.S.-produced mattress units trends will slowly improve but remain negative year-over-year. Bhaskar will have more information on the 2023 guidance in a minute.

今天的業績證明了該業務強勁的盈利能力和現金流屬性，因為我們在這一充滿挑戰的背景下實現了穩健的盈利和現金流。展望今年下半年，我們預計美國生產的床墊趨勢將緩慢改善，但仍同比下降。 Bhaskar 稍後將提供有關 2023 年指南的更多信息。

Turning to a few highlights for the quarter. First, we continued to extend our lead as the largest global bedding company in the world. All 3 of our leading U.S. brands, Tempur, Sealy and Stearns & Foster performed well in the quarter, significantly ahead of where we believe the industry trended. We were pleased with the second quarter performance of our International business. The successful Tempur International launch combined with Dreams' crisp retail execution are driving continued outperformance worldwide and positioning us well for the future.

轉向本季度的一些亮點。首先，我們繼續擴大作為全球最大的全球床上用品公司的領先地位。我們的 3 個領先的美國品牌——Tempur、Sealy 和 Stearns & Foster 在本季度都表現良好，明顯領先於我們認為的行業趨勢。我們對國際業務第二季度的業績感到滿意。 Tempur International 的成功推出與 Dreams 乾脆利落的零售執行力相結合，推動了全球範圍內持續出色的表現，並為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

Second, we opened our third domestic foaming pouring plant in Crawfordsville, Indiana, expanding our manufacturing capacity to meet expected demand for years to come. We designed the state-of-the-art facility to optimize our manufacturing capabilities across bedding products and components. In addition to pouring Tempur-Pedic material, we have the flexibility to leverage the plant's foaming pouring capacity to manufacture bedding products and components for our Sealy and Stearns & Foster brands as well as our non-branded OEM operations.

其次，我們在印第安納州克勞福茲維爾開設了第三家國內發泡澆注廠，擴大了我們的製造能力，以滿足未來幾年的預期需求。我們設計了最先進的設施，以優化我們的床上用品和組件的製造能力。除了澆注 Tempur-Pedic 材料外，我們還可以靈活地利用工廠的發泡澆注能力，為我們的 Sealy 和 Stearns & Foster 品牌以及我們的非品牌 OEM 業務生產床上用品和組件。

The facility enhances our ability to service our customers in the Northeast market, creating opportunities to shorten lead times and reduce per-unit logistics costs. This plant also provides additional storage for chemicals, mitigating the risks of future supply or pricing disruption.

該設施增強了我們為東北市場客戶提供服務的能力，創造了縮短交貨時間並降低單位物流成本的機會。該工廠還提供額外的化學品存儲空間，降低未來供應或定價中斷的風險。

With the opening of this facility, we've completed our 3-year strategic CapEx program and expect to see CapEx investments moderate significantly going forward. In the second half of this year, we expect CapEx to be down by 50% versus the same period last year, certainly beneficial to free cash flow.

隨著該設施的開業，我們已經完成了為期 3 年的戰略資本支出計劃，並預計未來資本支出投資將大幅放緩。今年下半年，我們預計資本支出將比去年同期下降 50%，這無疑有利於自由現金流。

Third highlight. We completed the rollout of our new TEMPUR-Breeze products and our new smart base in the U.S. Next-generation TEMPUR-Breeze mattress builds on the success of our proven legacy Breeze products to deliver next-level sleep solutions with enhanced Tempur-Pedic feel characteristics. Featuring new technologies designed by our Tempur-Pedic scientists, the new lineup presents the next generation of consumer-centric solutions focused on helping to alleviate aches and pains.

第三個亮點。我們在美國完成了全新TEMPUR-Breeze 產品和新智能底座的推出。下一代TEMPUR-Breeze 床墊以我們久經考驗的傳統Breeze 產品的成功為基礎，提供具有增強Tempur-Pedic 觸感特性的新水平睡眠解決方案。新產品系列採用了 Tempur-Pedic 科學家設計的新技術，展示了下一代以消費者為中心的解決方案，專注於幫助減輕疼痛。

We also continue to raise the bar in cooling performance with our new LuxeBreeze model, dealing 10 degrees cooler all night long, presenting the best-in-class solution for the more than 60% of the households that have at least one person who sleeps hot. Retailers' and consumers' response to these incremental technologies have been overwhelmingly positive, and we and retailers are seeing positive mix and higher average ASP.

我們還繼續提高新的 LuxeBreeze 型號的製冷性能標準，整夜降溫 10 度，為超過 60% 至少有一個人睡得很熱的家庭提供一流的解決方案。零售商和消費者對這些增量技術的反應非常積極，我們和零售商看到了積極的組合和更高的平均平均售價。

In tandem with the Breeze mattress refresh, we also introduced an updated adjustable base lineup, which is driving all-time-high retailer advocacy and attachment rates, reaching new records in May and June. Our new smart base features, our new Sleeptracker 2.0 technology, the accuracy of which was validated by a Stanford medical study; and offers industry-leading automatic snore detection and response, addressing a leading sleep concern among consumers. This new lineup also features incremental multisensory relaxation features to help consumers wind down and prepare their bodies and minds for deep, rejuvenating sleep.

在 Breeze 床墊更新的同時，我們還推出了更新的可調節底座系列，這推動了零售商的擁護率和依戀率創下歷史新高，並在 5 月和 6 月創下新紀錄。我們新的智能底座功能，我們新的 Sleeptracker 2.0 技術，其準確性經過斯坦福大學醫學研究的驗證；並提供業界領先的自動打鼾檢測和響應，解決消費者主要的睡眠問題。這一新產品系列還具有漸進式多感官放鬆功能，可幫助消費者放鬆身心，為深度、恢復活力的睡眠做好準備。

Over the Memorial holiday, we supported these Tempur lineups with all-new breeze and smart-based multimedia advertising campaigns. These efforts drove incremental search interest in Tempur year-over-year and drove solid e-commerce traffic trends over the Memorial Day selling period. All of our new Tempur products and supporting advertising initiatives are strengthening Tempur's appeal to the premium wellness-minded consumer and driving improvements in attach rates and ASP for our third-party retailers.

在陣亡將士紀念日期間，我們通過全新的微風和基於智能的多媒體廣告活動來支持這些泰普爾系列。這些努力推動了泰普爾的搜索興趣逐年增加，並在陣亡將士紀念日銷售期間推動了穩定的電子商務流量趨勢。我們所有的新泰普爾產品和支持廣告計劃都增強了泰普爾對注重健康的優質消費者的吸引力，並推動了我們第三方零售商的附加率和平均售價的提高。

Fourth highlight. Our investments in Stearns & Foster products, distribution and marketing continue to drive meaningful sales growth and expand brand recognition. In the second quarter, Stearns delivered its third sequential quarter of year-over-year sales growth, significantly outperforming broader market trends. This was possible, thanks to the recent investments in brand and the rollout of our all-new Stearns & Foster collection with superior innovation and elevated design and enhanced step-up opportunities.

第四個亮點。我們對 Stearns & Foster 產品、分銷和營銷的投資繼續推動有意義的銷售增長並擴大品牌認知度。第二季度，斯特恩斯實現了連續第三個季度的銷售同比增長，明顯優於更廣泛的市場趨勢。這一切之所以成為可能，要歸功於最近對品牌的投資以及我們推出的全新 Stearns & Foster 系列，該系列具有卓越的創新、提升的設計和增強的升級機會。

The new product lineup is delivering strong results. We have grown Stearns' third-party retail distribution by more than 20% compared to the previous collection with gains in both legacy and incremental Stearns' retailers. We're seeing this product resonate with historically underserved premium innerspring consumer, resulting in strong mix and again driving ASP expansion.

新產品陣容正在帶來強勁的業績。與之前的系列相比，我們將 Stearns 的第三方零售分銷增長了 20% 以上，傳統 Stearns 零售商和增量 Stearns 零售商均取得了增長。我們看到該產品與歷史上服務不足的優質內置彈簧消費者產生共鳴，從而形成強大的組合併再次推動平均售價的擴張。

Our channel diversification strategy is also driving strong brand momentum. The Stearns & Foster e-commerce site we launched last year continues to drive brand recognition and highly profitable incremental sales.

我們的渠道多元化戰略也推動了強勁的品牌勢頭。我們去年推出的 Stearns & Foster 電子商務網站繼續推動品牌認知度和高利潤的增量銷售。

Finally, our launch of our all-new international Tempur products continue to track with our expectations. We are launching the new international lineup in over 90 markets worldwide. In the first half of the year, we kicked off our Tempur European and Asian markets. We expect to be fully floored in our last market in the U.K. in the first half of 2024.

最後，我們推出的全新國際泰普爾產品繼續符合我們的預期。我們正在全球 90 多個市場推出新的國際陣容。上半年，我們啟動了泰普爾歐洲和亞洲市場。我們預計將於 2024 年上半年全面進入英國最後一個市場。

The U.K. has some country-specific fire retardant regulations, which adds some complexity to the product launch. The consumer-centric innovation and new collection will appeal to our legacy ultra-premium consumers at prices of 3,000 and above but also broadening our price points to expand our addressable market to meet the needs of consumers shopping for mattresses between 2,000 and 3,000.

英國有一些特定國家/地區的阻燃法規，這增加了產品發布的複雜性。以消費者為中心的創新和新系列將吸引我們價格在3,000 及以上的傳統超高端消費者，同時也擴大我們的價格點，以擴大我們的目標市場，以滿足購買2,000 至3,000 之間床墊的消費者的需求。

We are streamlining the manufacturing process with this lineup to unlock this incremental price point without materially altering the margin profile of our Tempur International business. As we continue to stagger the rollout by individual markets, we are currently manufacturing both with new line and the old line of products in our international Tempur plant. We plan to optimize production of the new line after the transition period, providing a tailwind to gross margins in 2024.

我們正在通過該產品線簡化製造流程，以釋放這一增量價格點，而不會實質性改變我們泰普爾國際業務的利潤狀況。隨著我們繼續錯開各個市場的推出，我們目前正在我們的國際泰普爾工廠生產新系列和舊系列的產品。我們計劃在過渡期後優化新生產線的生產，為 2024 年的毛利率提供動力。

Now I'll turn the call over to Bhaskar.

現在我將把電話轉給巴斯卡。

Thank you, Scott. In the second quarter of 2023, consolidated sales were approximately $1.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share was $0.58. We have approximately $13 million of pro forma adjustments in the quarter, all of which are consistent with the terms of our senior credit facility. These adjustments are primarily related to costs incurred in connection with the planned acquisition of Mattress Firm, a $4 billion U.S. bedding retailer.

謝謝你，斯科特。 2023 年第二季度，合併銷售額約為 13 億美元，調整後每股收益為 0.58 美元。本季度我們有大約 1300 萬美元的預計調整，所有這些調整都符合我們高級信貸安排的條款。這些調整主要與計劃收購價值 40 億美元的美國床上用品零售商 Mattress Firm 所產生的成本有關。

Turning to North American results. Net sales increased a solid 5% in the quarter. On a reported basis, the wholesale channel increased 6% and the direct channel increased 3%. North American adjusted gross margin improved to 39.9%, driven by pricing actions and favorable commodities, partially offset by increased product launches and operational headwinds. North American adjusted operating margin improved to 17.4%, driven by the improvement in gross margins.

轉向北美的結果。本季度淨銷售額穩定增長 5%。據報告，批發渠道增長了 6%，直銷渠道增長了 3%。受定價行為和有利商品的推動，北美調整後毛利率提高至 39.9%，但部分被產品發布增加和運營阻力所抵消。受毛利率改善的推動，北美調整後營業利潤率提高至 17.4%。

Now turning to International. International net sales increased 3% on a reported basis and 4% on a constant currency basis. Our current year full year expectations for 2023 contemplates neutral FX both for sales and adjusted EBITDA. As compared to the prior year, our International gross margins improved to 54.9%, driven by favorable mix and pricing actions. Our International operating margin declined to 13.4%, driven by launch-related expenses, including discretionary advertising investments, partially offset by the improvements in gross margin.

現在轉向國際。按報告計算，國際淨銷售額增長 3%，按固定匯率計算，國際淨銷售額增長 4%。我們對 2023 年全年的預期考慮了銷售和調整後 EBITDA 的中性匯率。與上一年相比，在有利的組合和定價行動的推動下，我們的國際毛利率提高至 54.9%。我們的國際營業利潤率下降至 13.4%，這是由於與發布相關的費用（包括酌情廣告投資）的推動，但部分被毛利率的改善所抵消。

Global commodity prices continue to trend largely in line with our expectations. We continue to expect favorable commodity prices into the back half of the year, though remaining significantly elevated to 2020 levels.

全球大宗商品價格的走勢繼續基本符合我們的預期。我們繼續預計下半年大宗商品價格將保持有利，但仍將大幅升至 2020 年的水平。

Now moving to the balance sheet and cash flow items. At the end of the second quarter, consolidated net debt was $2.7 billion. And our leverage ratio under our credit facility was 3.1x, slightly ahead of the target range of 2 to 3x. We expect to return to our target leverage range in the back half of the year.

現在轉向資產負債表和現金流量項目。截至第二季度末，合併淨債務為 27 億美元。我們的信貸額度下的槓桿率為 3.1 倍，略高於 2 至 3 倍的目標範圍。我們預計下半年槓桿率將回到目標區間。

We generated second quarter operating cash flow of $150 million. In total, we had more than $250 million of operating cash flow in the first half of the year, continuing to demonstrate the attractive cash flow attributes of the company. As expected, our inventory levels declined in the quarter, as we have completed the vast majority of our domestic product launches. This resulted in a sequential 6-day improvement in the cash cycle. As we enter the back half of the year, we expect inventory levels to further decline as well as some improvements in working capital further improving our cash cycle.

我們第二季度的運營現金流為 1.5 億美元。上半年我們的運營現金流總計超過2.5億美元，繼續展現出公司有吸引力的現金流屬性。正如預期的那樣，我們的庫存水平在本季度有所下降，因為我們已經完成了絕大多數國內產品的發布。這導致現金周期連續 6 天有所改善。隨著進入今年下半年，我們預計庫存水平將進一步下降，營運資金的一些改善將進一步改善我們的現金周期。

We have temporarily suspended repurchases under our share repurchase authorization as we work towards closing the Mattress Firm transaction. Over this interim period, we expect to significantly deleverage, as we plan to use the cash to pay down debt ahead of the closing. After the acquisition closes, we would anticipate our leverage ratio to be between 3 and 3.25x.

在我們努力完成 Mattress Firm 交易的過程中，我們已根據股票回購授權暫時中止了回購。在此過渡期內，我們預計將大幅去槓桿化，因為我們計劃在交割前使用現金償還債務。收購完成後，我們預計槓桿率將在 3 至 3.25 倍之間。

Now turning to 2023 guidance. Due to revised industry expectations, we are trimming the midpoint of our 2023 guidance by approximately 3% on both sales and adjusted EPS. We now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.50 to $2.70. This considers sales to be consistent to slightly up over the prior year. This includes the execution of our key initiatives, new product launches and the wraparound impact of pricing.

現在轉向 2023 年指導。由於行業預期的調整，我們將 2023 年銷售額和調整後每股收益指引的中值下調約 3%。我們現在預計調整後每股收益將在 2.50 美元至 2.70 美元之間。這認為銷售額與上年持平，略有上升。這包括我們關鍵舉措的執行、新產品的發布以及定價的全面影響。

This also assumes global industry headwinds, primarily in the low end; sales and marketing investments of $20 million to support our product launches; and maintaining our commitment to record advertising spend of over $500 million as we continue to support our leading brands and new products. This will result in adjusted EBITDA of approximately $940 million at the midpoint of the range.

這還假設了全球行業的逆風，主要是在低端市場； 2000 萬美元的銷售和營銷投資用於支持我們的產品發布；在我們繼續支持我們的領先品牌和新產品的同時，維持我們對創紀錄的廣告支出超過 5 億美元的承諾。這將導致調整後的 EBITDA 約為 9.4 億美元，處於該範圍的中點。

Our guidance also considers the following allocations of capital in 2023: a quarterly dividend of $0.11, representing an increase of 10% relative to 2022; and CapEx of approximately $200 million, which includes $90 million of growth CapEx primarily to fund the completion of our Crawfordsville facility.

我們的指引還考慮了 2023 年的以下資本配置：季度股息 0.11 美元，較 2022 年增加 10%；資本支出約為 2 億美元，其中包括 9,000 萬美元的增長資本支出，主要用於資助克勞福茲維爾工廠的竣工。

I should note that, going forward, we expect our CapEx to return to a more normalized level of spend. We think of annualized CapEx as approximately $150 million driven by maintenance CapEx of $110 million and growth CapEx of approximately $40 million.

我應該指出，展望未來，我們預計我們的資本支出將恢復到更加正常化的支出水平。我們認為年化資本支出約為 1.5 億美元，其中維護資本支出約為 1.1 億美元，增長資本支出約為 4000 萬美元。

Lastly, I would like to flag a few modeling items. For the full year of 2023, we expect D&A of approximately $190 million to $200 million, interest expense of about $135 million to $140 million, a tax rate of 24% to 25% and a diluted share count of 178 million shares.

最後，我想標記一些建模項目。 2023 年全年，我們預計 D&A 約為 1.9 億至 2 億美元，利息支出約為 1.35 億至 1.4 億美元，稅率為 24% 至 25%，稀釋後股份數量為 1.78 億股。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給斯科特。

Thanks, Bhaskar. Great job. Before opening the call up for questions, I want to provide a couple of updates. First, I want to address the cybersecurity event affecting certain parts of our IT system, which was disclosed Monday in our 8-K. Following the discovery of the event, our team activated its CEO-approved incident response and business continuity plan.

謝謝，巴斯卡。做得好。在開始提問之前，我想提供一些最新信息。首先，我想解決影響我們 IT 系統某些部分的網絡安全事件，該事件於週一在我們的 8-K 中披露。事件發現後，我們的團隊啟動了首席執行官批准的事件響應和業務連續性計劃。

The plan was approved years ago and is designed to contain incidences. The plan included proactively shutting down certain IT systems, resulting in the planned temporary interruption of our operations. We began bringing our systems back online last Friday and expect it to take time to return to normal operations.

該計劃多年前獲得批准，旨在遏制事故發生。該計劃包括主動關閉某些 IT 系統，從而導致我們的運營按計劃暫時中斷。我們於上週五開始將系統重新上線，預計需要一段時間才能恢復正常運行。

Our investigation remains ongoing and we continue to work to determine the impact of the disruption. If we determine that any personal information was involved, we would, of course, comply with any reporting obligations we have under the applicable law. Currently we're working hard to catch up with the lost production from the shutdown. In total, our systems were down for a week, and we are currently working to get back to full production. We expect cyber-related expenses net will be adjusted from our third quarter financial results.

我們的調查仍在進行中，並繼續努力確定中斷的影響。如果我們確定涉及任何個人信息，我們當然會遵守適用法律規定的任何報告義務。目前，我們正在努力彌補停工造成的生產損失。總的來說，我們的系統停機了一周，目前我們正在努力恢復全面生產。我們預計網絡相關費用淨額將從我們第三季度的財務業績中進行調整。

Lastly, I'd like to provide a brief update on our pending acquisition of Mattress Firm. We're currently responding to the Federal Trade Commission's second request and continue to expect to close the transaction in mid- to late 2024. Over this interim period, Mattress Firm's leadership team provides us with a high-level update of their financial performance. Mattress Firm's recently -- quarterly results, which they reported yesterday, were consistent with our expectations. And we look forward to bringing the Mattress Firm team onboard.

最後，我想簡要介紹一下我們即將收購 Mattress Firm 的最新情況。我們目前正在響應聯邦貿易委員會的第二次請求，並繼續預計在 2024 年中後期完成交易。在此過渡期間，Mattress Firm 的領導團隊向我們提供了其財務業績的高級更新。床墊公司昨天公佈的最近季度業績與我們的預期一致。我們期待床墊公司團隊的加入。

And with that, I'll open up the call for questions, operator.

接線員，我將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bobby Griffin with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自鮑比·格里芬和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Congrats on a good quarter with a lot of moving parts. I guess...

祝賀這個季度表現良好，有很多變化。我猜...

Thanks, Bobby.

謝謝，鮑比。

Our first one is to just maybe follow up on the guidance reduction and just maybe get a little more clarity on some of the moving parts assumed in there. So is the reduction in earnings and sales all just a function of the industry maybe being a little bit softer than we originally anticipated and we laid out? Or are you baking in some conservatism that this IT event or the cyber event will have some type of impact on earnings and revenue in the second half?

我們的第一個可能是跟進指導意見的減少，並且可能對其中假設的一些移動部分有更多的了解。那麼，收入和銷售額的下降是否只是行業的一個功能，可能比我們最初預期和我們所規劃的要軟一些？或者您是否抱有某種保守態度，認為這次 IT 事件或網絡事件將對下半年的盈利和收入產生某種影響？

Yes, let me -- it's kind of a -- let me answer it because it's a little bit of a long answer, but let me be clear about it. First of all, from the cyber event, great job by the IT, internal IT department. They did a great job. In fact, it was an enterprise-wide effort. And congratulations to all the people internally. We also had a lot of help from external IT teams that we had on retainer for these kind of events and a great job by Microsoft's elite team.

是的，讓我——有點——讓我回答這個問題，因為這個答案有點長，但讓我說清楚。首先，從網絡事件來看，IT、內部IT部門做得很好。他們做的不錯。事實上，這是整個企業的努力。並向內部所有人表示祝賀。我們還從外部 IT 團隊那裡得到了很多幫助，我們為此類活動保留了這些幫助，並且 Microsoft 精英團隊的出色工作。

Let me go -- kind of go through the estimates of what we know today. Obviously, this is not an easy estimate, but let me tell you what we know based on all the information that we have right now. First of all, the event itself is certainly not material to the intrinsic value of the enterprise. The event is not material to our 2023 expected sales or EBITDA.

讓我來回顧一下我們今天所知道的情況。顯然，這不是一個簡單的估計，但讓我根據我們目前掌握的所有信息告訴你我們所知道的情況。首先，事件本身對於企業的內在價值來說肯定不重要。該事件對我們 2023 年的預期銷售額或 EBITDA 並不重要。

Before insurance -- and we have an insurance limit of $5 million, but before any insurance, our best estimate is about $10 million to $20 million negative impact in EBITDA in the third quarter. We expect the vast majority will qualify as an add-back adjustment in the third quarter. In the estimate that I gave you on the impact of EBITDA, it really breaks out into kind of 2 pieces, 1 which is clearly incremental costs related to the activity and should be cleared by -- covered by insurance at some point, but of course, we'll account for that as we receive it. And then 50% of it is from potential lost sales.

在保險之前——我們的保險限額為 500 萬美元，但在任何保險之前，我們的最佳估計是第三季度 EBITDA 的負面影響約為 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元。我們預計絕大多數將有資格在第三季度進行回加調整。在我給你的關於 EBITDA 影響的估計中，它實際上分為兩部分，1 顯然是與活動相關的增量成本，應該在某個時候由保險覆蓋，但當然，我們會在收到時對其進行說明。其中 50% 來自潛在的銷售損失。

When you look at the potential lost sales for the third quarter, you're talking about $20 million to $30 million. That's about maybe 2%-ish, give or take, of the quarter sales; and again that's potential. And the vast majority of that would be Sealy U.S., okay, because we have plenty of inventory in the Tempur organization. We've not experienced any material changes in our balance of share. And retailers, quite frankly, have been very understanding in the situation.

當您查看第三季度的潛在銷售額損失時，您會發現約為 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元。這大約佔該季度銷售額的 2% 左右；這也是潛力所在。其中絕大多數是美國西利公司，好吧，因為我們在泰普爾組織中有大量庫存。我們的股份平衡沒有發生任何重大變化。坦率地說，零售商對這種情況非常理解。

Now lastly, more kind of directly to your guidance question. For the 2023 guidance, the event has been considered, but as we mentioned before, we would expect an add-back in the third quarter for the costs. And certainly we'll account for the -- like I said, the insurance. Whenever we ever file a claim, we'll call that out.

最後，更直接地回答您的指導問題。對於 2023 年的指導，已經考慮了該事件，但正如我們之前提到的，我們預計第三季度的成本會增加。當然，正如我所說，我們會考慮保險。每當我們提出索賠時，我們都會指出這一點。

Any other impact on changing the guidance, totally macro. When you look at the second quarter and -- okay, well, let's say we kind of scraped out the second quarter. The market wasn't as strong as we expected it to be, but we also performed better and outperformed the industry by a greater extent than we expected. And when you net the two, we had it relatively solid, in fact very solid, relative to others in the industry in the second quarter. And looking forward, we brought back -- we brought down our expectations for the industry; and that required us to fine-tune 3%-ish from a guidance standpoint.

對改變指導方針的任何其他影響，完全是宏觀的。當你看第二季度時——好吧，好吧，假設我們勉強完成了第二季度的任務。市場沒有我們預期的那麼強勁，但我們也表現得更好，比我們預期的幅度更大。當你將兩者相加時，我們的表現相對穩定，事實上，相對於第二季度業內其他公司而言，我們的表現相對穩定。展望未來，我們降低了對行業的期望；這要求我們從指導的角度微調 3% 左右。

Our next question comes from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

Congrats on a good quarter.

祝賀季度表現良好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. I think staying on the theme of demand, Scott. As you think about the macro setup with rates possibly at or very close to the peak, housing getting a little better, it feels like maybe the consumer will start reengaging and spending in some of these other categories as travel starts to moderate a bit in there. How are you thinking about the industry's ability to start to see some level of improved demand as we move through the next couple of quarters; and your ability to continue to outperform relative to that as some of your peers perhaps move up off of these industry declines of the 25%, 30% range?

是的。我認為停留在需求的主題上，斯科特。當你考慮宏觀環境時，利率可能達到或非常接近峰值，住房狀況有所改善，感覺隨著旅行開始稍微放緩，消費者可能會開始重新參與其中的一些其他類別並進行消費。您如何看待該行業在接下來的幾個季度中開始看到一定程度的需求改善的能力？當您的一些同行可能擺脫 25%、30% 範圍內的行業下滑時，您是否有能力繼續跑贏大盤？

Thank you for the 33 questions you asked me, Susan. Let me speak to it and see if I can answer like 30 and leave 3 unattended. First of all, yes, we're very happy with the performance in the quarter. We think it gives us an opportunity to show the strength of the business even in a little bit of a down cycle in its cash flow generation. I would highlight in our numbers, because this goes to the consumer question you asked. If you look at our ASP, it was up 13% in the quarter. And all but about -- let's call it 2% of that is price.

蘇珊，謝謝你問了我 33 個問題。讓我對它說話，看看我是否可以回答 30 個，而讓 3 個無人看管。首先，是的，我們對本季度的表現非常滿意。我們認為，即使在現金流產生略有下降的情況下，這也為我們提供了展示業務實力的機會。我會在我們的數字中強調，因為這涉及您提出的消費者問題。如果你看看我們的平均售價，本季度上漲了 13%。其中 2% 就是價格。

The vast majority of that is people mixing up. And so what that would tell you is the top end of the consumers are doing very well and where you're seeing sales pressure is at the lower end. If I do it by brand standpoint, our high-end brands did better than our low-end brands. i.e., Stearns & Foster did better than Sealy. And Stearns & Foster grew double digits in a market that -- I don't know, pick your number, but it was clearly down double digits. It grew double digits.

其中絕大多數是人們混淆的。因此，這會告訴你，高端消費者的表現非常好，而你看到的銷售壓力則來自低端消費者。如果從品牌角度來看，我們的高端品牌比低端品牌做得更好。也就是說，Stearns & Foster 的表現比 Sealy 更好。 Stearns & Foster 在一個市場中實現了兩位數的增長——我不知道，選擇你的數字，但它顯然下降了兩位數。它增長了兩位數。

So I'm going to say the strength of the high-end customer everywhere we looked, looked very good. We look at individual mattresses within the Tempur lineup. The high-end Tempur products did much better than the low-end Tempur products. So we're -- we continue to be fairly bullish on a high-end customer. Where you feel the pressure is in the low end, and the low end is -- has gotten hit very hard.

所以我想說的是，我們看到的所有高端客戶的實力看起來都非常好。我們來看看泰普爾系列中的各個床墊。高端坦普爾產品的表現比低端坦普爾產品要好得多。因此，我們仍然對高端客戶相當看好。你感受到壓力的地方是在低端，而低端已經受到了非常嚴重的打擊。

So you had a question in there about outlook, as far as consumers going forward. We've been bouncing around the bottom in the bedding industry for probably 3 quarters, and so I don't know. Next quarter or 2, we certainly think that the industry should start doing better. Some people can point to green shoots. Yes, we see some, but you have some good weeks and you have some slower weeks. But the main thing from our perspective is we see our products incrementally performing very well in the marketplace against the competition. And part of her question, I missed, Bhaskar, that you can remember?

所以你有一個關於消費者未來前景的問題。我們的床上用品行業已經在底部徘徊了大約三個季度，所以我不知道。下個季度或第二個季度，我們當然認為該行業應該開始做得更好。有些人可能會指出新芽。是的，我們看到了一些，但是你有一些好的幾週，也有一些慢的幾週。但從我們的角度來看，最重要的是我們看到我們的產品在市場競爭中逐漸表現得非常好。我錯過了她問題的一部分，巴斯卡，你還記得嗎？

About competitive landscape.

關於競爭格局。

Competitive landscape. Look. We've got -- it's a very competitive market. It's lots of competitors in bedding worldwide, other brands that have brand strength that we all know. They're out there. They're competing every day. I haven't seen anything in any of the competitors that what I would call a significant sea change in their activities or their strategy, but it's a competitive market. And we'll continue to compete the best we can.

競爭格局。看。我們擁有——這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。全球床上用品領域有很多競爭對手，其他品牌也具有眾所周知的品牌實力。他們就在那裡。他們每天都在比賽。我沒有看到任何競爭對手的活動或策略發生任何我所說的重大變化，但這是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們將繼續盡我們所能去競爭。

And we have a question from Keith Hughes with Truist.

我們有一個來自 Truist 的 Keith Hughes 的問題。

Yes. You had talked earlier about raw material costs, I guess, coming down (inaudible). Can you give me a kind of quantification how much they're down either in the quarter or your estimates for the second half of the year?

是的。我想，您之前曾談到原材料成本的下降（聽不清）。您能否量化一下本季度或下半年的下降幅度？

Absolutely...

絕對地...

Dollars would be helpful.

美元會有幫助。

Sure. So let me think about it this way. Is that we did have an expectation from a commodity standpoint as we entered the year. Largely speaking is that those commodities are coming in very much in line with those -- with our expectations. We would expect to continue to see incremental commodity benefit as we get into the back half; however, all contemplated in our initial thoughts as it relates to what we thought commodities were going to do. As it relates to the commodity benefit that we saw in our GP rate, is we'll have a little bit more information in our queue. It's going to drop here in a little bit, but I'll go ahead and give you a peek on it. It's from a commodity standpoint is what we'd want to expect to see is about 150 basis points of improvement.

當然。那麼讓我這樣想一下。進入這一年時，我們確實從大宗商品的角度有了預期。很大程度上來說，這些大宗商品的表現非常符合我們的預期。我們預計，隨著下半年的到來，大宗商品的收益將繼續增加；然而，所有這些都在我們最初的想法中考慮過，因為它與我們認為商品將會做什麼有關。因為它與我們在 GP 率中看到的商品利益相關，所以我們的隊列中將有更多的信息。稍後它會下降到這裡，但我會繼續給你看一下。從大宗商品的角度來看，我們希望看到大約 150 個基點的改善。

Our next question comes from Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的柯蒂斯·內格爾。

This is Steven McDermott on for Curtis Nagle. Just for your Mattress Firm acquisition, I know you called out kind of second half of 2024. Is there any changes in what you are seeing from a regulatory approval standpoint? And then as far as gross margins kind of touch beyond just the commodities, how are we thinking about the cadence going into 2H and kind of all the puts and takes there?

我是史蒂文·麥克德莫特，替補柯蒂斯·內格爾。就您收購 Mattress Firm 而言，我知道您預計會在 2024 年下半年進行。從監管審批的角度來看，您所看到的情況有什麼變化嗎？那麼，就毛利率而言，觸及的不僅僅是大宗商品，我們如何考慮進入 2H 的節奏以及所有看跌期權和賣出期權的類型？

Yes. Thank you for your question. I'll do FTC. And I'll give Captain Margin -- on the question on margins. Look. As you know, the FTC process is long and complex. What I would say is we're working through the process. There have not been any surprises in the process. We're providing them significant information on their second request. Lawyers and folks are meeting and discussing professionally as we both learn each other's perspective.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我會做聯邦貿易委員會。我將向馬金船長介紹關於利潤的問題。看。如您所知，FTC 流程漫長且複雜。我想說的是我們正在完成這個過程。整個過程中並沒有出現任何意外。我們正在向他們提供關於他們的第二個請求的重要信息。律師和人們正在專業地會面和討論，我們都了解彼此的觀點。

And I think that process will continue to go on for several months, and probably sometime in the fourth quarter, we will probably get down to the point where we figure out whether or not we have a meeting of minds or we don't have a meeting of minds, but I would tell you that process is progressing normally. Everybody is working cordially together. And they have responsibility on their side that we certainly respect, and we look forward to continuing to visit with them.

我認為這個過程將持續幾個月，可能在第四季度的某個時候，我們可能會認真考慮是否達成了共識，或者沒有達成共識。意見一致，但我想告訴你，這個過程進展正常。大家都在真誠地合作。他們肩負著我們當然尊重的責任，我們期待著繼續與他們一起訪問。

When I think about gross margins going from the first half to the second half, first thing I would point out is I would anticipate the normal seasonality of the business. Generally the second half is bigger than the first, so therefore, we get some leverage upon our fixed. So clearly is I would anticipate that, that would happen.

當我考慮上半年到下半年的毛利率時，我首先要指出的是，我會預計業務的正常季節性。一般來說，後半部分比前半部分大，因此，我們對固定匯率有一定的影響力。很明顯，我預計會發生這種情況。

In addition to that is that we had some unique events that were investments that we made in the first half, whether it be product launch expenses, whether it be the 4 models that we have out there. So as we get into the back half of the year is that that's not going to be a headwind from a gross margin standpoint.

除此之外，我們還有一些獨特的活動，這些活動是我們在上半年進行的投資，無論是產品發布費用，還是我們現有的 4 款車型。因此，當我們進入今年下半年時，從毛利率的角度來看，這不會成為不利因素。

And then finally I will call out is that we've been making some investments in our supply chain and our operations. Let's call that we've been filling some EBITDA to make sure that we've been servicing our customers. And as we think about the back half of the year is that those headwinds should turn into tailwinds.

最後我要指出的是，我們一直在對我們的供應鍊和運營進行一些投資。假設我們已經填寫了一些 EBITDA，以確保我們一直在為客戶提供服務。當我們考慮今年下半年時，這些逆風應該會變成順風。

So what all that means is what I would anticipate is that gross margin continues to step up, with Q3 being the highest of the year. Then I would also say, as we think about -- or just margins overall from a go-forward standpoint, is that I feel like we have a number of tailwinds to margin, whether it be the product mix, whether it be the operational initiatives that we have not only this year but as those continue. We're very excited of our direct-to-consumer business. DTC should be a tailwind for us from a go-forward standpoint.

因此，這意味著我預計毛利率將繼續上升，第三季度將達到今年最高。然後我還要說，正如我們所思考的那樣——或者只是從未來的角度來看整體利潤率，我覺得我們有很多利潤率的推動因素，無論是產品組合，還是運營舉措我們不僅今年做到了這一點，而且隨著這些年的繼續，我們也做到了這一點。我們對直接面向消費者的業務感到非常興奮。從前進的角度來看，DTC 應該是我們的順風車。

And then finally I'll close it down with International. International is we spent many, many years in developing a product that will hit a new total addressable market. Generally, International margins are higher than the U.S., so I'd anticipate, as International continues to grow, is that, that will be a tailwind as well.

最後我將與國際合作結束它。國際化是我們花了很多很多年來開發一種產品，該產品將打入一個新的總體目標市場。一般來說，國際利潤率高於美國，因此我預計，隨著國際業務的持續增長，這也將是一個順風車。

Yes. The only thing I -- made me think as you were talking, Bhaskar, is margins that we probably should have called out in the second quarter, our advertising expense. We spent the same amount as last year. i.e., even though the market was choppy, we didn't pull back on advertising to try to optimize EBITDA or something like that. And in fact, if you look at our direct advertising, our direct advertising to support, quite frankly, a little weaker market is up double digits in the second quarter in support of the marketplace.

是的。巴斯卡，當你說話時，我唯一讓我想到的是我們可能應該在第二季度公佈的利潤率，即我們的廣告費用。我們花費的金額與去年相同。也就是說，即使市場動盪，我們也沒有減少廣告投入來嘗試優化 EBITDA 或類似的東西。事實上，如果你看一下我們的直接廣告，坦率地說，我們的直接廣告支持了稍微疲軟的市場，在第二季度增長了兩位數，以支持市場。

Our next question comes from Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Keith 和 Piper Sandler。

Congrats on the continued share gains. I guess, a 2-part question, hopefully, related. Number one, could you give us the sales lift in the second quarter from the product launches that you had? And then secondarily, it looks like now your guidance implies that revenue is going to slow in the back half. At the same time, I think the industry trends, what we're seeing general agreement on, is that things are kind of getting less bad; and you're kind of guiding for things to get worse, so I hope you could reconcile that dynamic.

恭喜股價持續上漲。我想，這是一個由兩部分組成的問題，希望是相關的。第一，您能否向我們介紹一下您推出的產品在第二季度的銷售提升情況？其次，現在看來您的指導意味著下半年收入將放緩。與此同時，我認為行業趨勢，我們所看到的普遍共識是，事情正在變得不那麼糟糕；你在某種程度上引導事情變得更糟，所以我希望你能協調這種動態。

Sure. Do you want to work on that...

當然。你想從事這方面的工作嗎...

Absolutely. So the way I would think about it is, specifically as it relates to the 4 models, in the second quarter, let's call that 2% to 3%. And so that's the lift we got there. When I think about the back half, reasonable as it relates to what the back half looks like from a sales standpoint. However, here is the way I think about. It's, in the first half of the year, we did have some benefit from the last round of pricing actions that we took in 2022. That lapsed in the first half, meaning that we don't have that benefit as we think about the back half of the year.

絕對地。所以我的想法是，特別是因為它與第二季度的 4 個模型相關，我們稱之為 2% 到 3%。這就是我們到達那裡的電梯。當我想到後半部分時，這是合理的，因為它與從銷售角度來看後半部分的外觀有關。然而，這是我的想法。今年上半年，我們確實從 2022 年採取的最後一輪定價行動中獲得了一些好處。這種好處在上半年就失效了，這意味著我們考慮到後面的情況時就沒有這種好處了。半年。

Finally is that our 4 models, which are -- again are going to support future growth, is that those are largely in the first half of the year, so when you think about our expectations in the back half of the year, what that does imply is that -- from an organic standpoint is that those initiatives are going to continue to allow us to grow in a very challenged market. So how I think about that is from a sales being flat to slightly up is -- what that would imply in the back half of the year is that we would see a bit of growth and really being fueled by those initiatives in a very challenged market.

最後，我們的 4 個模型將再次支持未來的增長，這些模型主要是在今年上半年，所以當你考慮我們對下半年的預期時，這會產生什麼作用這意味著——從有機的角度來看，這些舉措將繼續讓我們在充滿挑戰的市場中成長。因此，我的想法是，從銷售持平到略有上升，這意味著在今年下半年，我們將看到一些增長，並且在一個充滿挑戰的市場中真正受到這些舉措的推動。 。

Our next question comes from Seth Basham from Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

I have a follow-up question to Peter's. Just on the outlook for the industry for the balance of the year. If you take into consideration, what's happening from a macro standpoint and a credit availability standpoint? What are you expecting industry units to do for the full year and for the back half of the year that underpins your guidance?

我有一個關於彼得的後續問題。只是關於今年剩餘時間的行業前景。如果您考慮一下，從宏觀角度和信貸可用性角度來看會發生什麼？您預計行業單位全年和下半年會做什麼，以支撐您的指導？

Good question. So the way we think about it is, let's call it, mid-single-digit -- mid- to high single-digit decline. And what that would imply is, for the back half of the year, call it, mid-single-digit decline. It's our expectation that -- for the second quarter is that, when the information comes out, our estimate is that we'll see low double from a decline standpoint.

好問題。因此，我們的思考方式是，我們稱之為中個位數——中個位數到高個位數的下降。這意味著今年下半年將出現中等個位數的下降。我們對第二季度的預期是，當信息公佈時，我們的估計是，從下降的角度來看，我們將看到低兩倍。

And our next question will come from Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas。

A couple of follow-ups, if I could. Scott, I believe you talked about thinking that you may not have as much from share gains in the back half is what you've been seeing in the first half. I was wondering if you could elaborate on that any more. And then Bhaskar, I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the commodity component of margins and maybe how you're thinking about that from a big picture standpoint and perhaps maybe how that sets up as a potential tailwind for you even as you move into 2024.

如果可以的話，請進行一些後續行動。斯科特，我相信你談到過你認為下半年的股票收益可能不會像你在上半年看到的那樣多。我想知道你能否再詳細說明一下。然後巴斯卡，我希望你能多談談利潤率的商品組成部分，也許你是如何從大局的角度考慮這一點的，也許這對你來說是一個潛在的推動力，即使你進入2024年。

Yes, thanks for the question. And let me be a little clear. It's more of the way we do budgeting, more than expectation, when it comes to share gains or outperformance in the marketplace. Clearly we continue to take a -- have quite a bit of outperformance in the marketplace, but when we actually put our budgets together and we do guidance, we don't anticipate that activity. We let that activity flow into the numbers as a good guy. And maybe it offsets an unknown bad guy. But as far as like -- you've just asked me like, "Okay, what do you really think your share gains are going to be?" We haven't seen anything in the marketplace from any of the competitors that would make us think that our share gains would slow down. Our -- all of our brands had really strong second quarter. And we haven't seen anything that would make us think that the -- that wouldn't continue in the third quarter. So that's probably me misspeaking or thinking about our budgeting process, more than anything else.

是的，謝謝你的提問。讓我說清楚一點。當談到分享收益或在市場上表現出色時，這更多的是我們制定預算的方式，而不是預期。顯然，我們繼續在市場上有相當多的出色表現，但當我們實際將預算放在一起並進行指導時，我們並沒有預料到這種活動。作為一個好人，我們讓這種活動融入到數字中。也許它抵消了一個不知名的壞人。但就你剛才問我的問題而言，“好吧，你認為你的股票收益到底會是多少？”我們在市場上沒有看到任何競爭對手的任何東西會讓我們認為我們的份額增長會放緩。我們所有的品牌第二季度的表現都非常強勁。我們還沒有看到任何讓我們認為這種情況不會在第三季度繼續下去的事情。所以這可能是我對我們的預算流程的誤解或思考，而不是其他任何事情。

As it relates to the components of gross margin, just cleaning up on the questions that I got earlier from Keith. Let's call it about $15 million of commodity benefit in the quarter, and that will triangulate to about 350 basis points of rate improvement. As we think about commodities, largely speaking, is that we had a perspective on what the full year would look like. That -- and what we assume there is that we'll continue to see some favorability as the year progressed.

因為它與毛利率的組成部分有關，所以只需清理一下我之前從基思那裡得到的問題。我們稱本季度商品收益約為 1500 萬美元，這將導致利率改善約 350 個基點。當我們考慮大宗商品時，很大程度上來說，我們對全年的情況有一個看法。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續看到一些有利的情況。

Within some puts and takes, I would say, largely is that, that is coming in as in and around what we would anticipate, so what that does imply for the rest of the year is that we continue to see on a sequential basis commodity improvement as well as obviously year-over-year as well.

我想說，在一些看跌期權和看跌期權中，很大程度上是，這符合我們的預期，所以這意味著在今年剩餘時間裡，我們將繼續看到大宗商品連續改善顯然，同比也是如此。

Now all that said is that we are still well off the -- our 2019 levels from a commodity standpoint, so when you think about that mathematical equation that was happening where we had taken price and without any gross margin that would fall through from a rate standpoint is that phenomenon is still there. Yes, we have recouped some of that as commodities come in.

現在要說的是，從大宗商品的角度來看，我們仍然遠遠低於 2019 年的水平，所以當你考慮一下我們採用價格時發生的數學方程，並且沒有任何會因利率下降的毛利率觀點是這種現象仍然存在。是的，隨著商品的進入，我們已經收回了一些。

However, we are well, well off of where we used to be from a historic standpoint, commodity prices versus 2019. You would anticipate with the fullness of time is that things would normalize. However, it would be -- I think there are some things that are just going to be more stickier than others as it relates to getting back to those pre-pandemic levels.

然而，從歷史角度來看，大宗商品價格與 2019 年相比已經遠遠超出了過去的水平。您可以預期，隨著時間的推移，一切都會正常化。然而，我認為有些事情會比其他事情更具粘性，因為它與恢復到大流行前的水平有關。

Our next question comes from Atul Maheswari from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的阿圖爾·馬赫斯瓦里 (Atul Maheswari)。

Bhaskar, just to follow up on the commodity piece of gross margin. Based on your estimate as it stands today, how much of a -- if I back up a step. I think in the past what you've mentioned is that commodities have collectively been a 400 basis points headwind to gross margin over the last few years. As of the end of '23, how much of that do you expect to recover? Just so that we can properly calibrate what's left outstanding for 2024 and beyond.

Bhaskar，只是為了跟進商品部分的毛利率。根據您目前的估計，如果我後退一步，需要多少。我認為您過去提到的是，過去幾年大宗商品的毛利率總體下降了 400 個基點。截至 23 年底，您預計會恢復多少？這樣我們就可以正確調整 2024 年及以後的未完成任務。

Sure. Let me do that math kind of as I'm thinking about it. So I think we're well off of our -- of where we were in the pre-pandemic levels. I don't think we're approaching, let's call it half of where we were before. So somewhere between 150, 200 basis points perhaps is what we've captured. And that's consistent with what we've seen, let's call it, in the first half of the year, so I'd anticipate that to play through a little bit. And really that reinforces the point, is that things are better than where they were, obviously, during the pandemic. However, just from a pure inflation standpoint is that we've still got a ways to go.

當然。讓我一邊思考一邊做數學。所以我認為我們已經遠離了大流行前的水平。我認為我們還沒有接近，我們可以稱之為之前的一半。因此，我們可能捕捉到了 150 到 200 個基點之間的情況。這與我們在今年上半年所看到的情況是一致的，所以我預計這種情況會持續一段時間。這確實強化了這一點，顯然，情況比大流行期間的情況要好。然而，僅從純粹的通脹角度來看，我們還有很長的路要走。

We have a question from Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

我們有來自 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine 的提問。

If I look through the quarter that Mattress Firm just reported, it looks like their sales declined 6%. Do you view them as holding onto market share in a weaker market? Or is there an issue there that you would need to turn around, should you become the owner of the Mattress Firm assets, recognizing that it would be a year?

如果我查看 Mattress Firm 剛剛報告的季度，他們的銷售額似乎下降了 6%。您是否認為他們在市場疲軟的情況下保住了市場份額？或者是否存在您需要扭轉的問題，如果您成為床墊公司資產的所有者，並認識到這將是一年的時間？

Sure. We don't have all the information yet and that we get in the marketplace to fully answer that question, but certainly the early indications are that, from a retail perspective, I suspect the retailers were down double digits in total. I'm looking at Bhaskar to agree because we don't have all the numbers we triangulate. And so they were down 6% in sales and up, I think, 3% in EBITDA in a market that I would say probably sales for retailers were double digits.

當然。我們還沒有掌握所有信息，也無法在市場上充分回答這個問題，但早期跡象表明，從零售角度來看，我懷疑零售商的總銷售額下降了兩位數。我希望巴斯卡同意，因為我們沒有三角測量的所有數據。因此，他們的銷售額下降了 6%，但我認為 EBITDA 上升了 3%，而我認為零售商的銷售額可能達到兩位數。

So I think they probably took a little bit of share. If you were to segregate the market between what I'll call the big retailers and the small retailers, they were probably, I'll call it, in-line maybe with the large retailers because generally the trend has been larger retailers have been taking share from smaller retailers. But their report, which is their third quarter, our second quarter, that came out last night was very much in line with our expectations of what they were going to do this year, pre-signing the definitive agreement, so they're tracking to our internal expectations.

所以我認為他們可能佔據了一點份額。如果你要把市場分為我所說的大型零售商和小型零售商，他們可能會與大型零售商保持一致，因為一般來說，趨勢是大型零售商一直在採取行動。來自較小零售商的份額。但他們的報告，即他們的第三季度，我們的第二季度，昨晚發布的報告非常符合我們對他們今年要做的事情的預期，預先簽署了最終協議，所以他們正在跟踪我們的內在期望。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from William Reuter from Bank of America.

（操作員指令）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 William Reuter。

I just have one. Given a little bit of the weaker demand at the lower end, is the -- and lower commodity prices, do you expect that you may either be more promotional? Do you expect you would reduce list prices? Have your retailer partners come to you with any suggestions on how to increase volumes there? That's it.

我只有一個。考慮到低端需求略有減弱，以及大宗商品價格下降，您是否認為您可能會加大促銷力度？您預計會降低標價嗎？您的零售商合作夥伴是否曾向您提出有關如何增加銷量的建議？就是這樣。

No. I don't really see any pricing actions at the lower end. Is it promotional? Yes. The low end is always very promotional. And in the industry, the low end doesn't have much profit in it, so there's not a lot to work with at the low end. And where we've seen retailers aggressively try to promote and drive, we'll call it, lower end. Generally we've seen those activities not be successful from a return on advertising or promotion dollars.

不，我確實沒有看到任何低端定價行為。是促銷嗎？是的。低端產品總是非常促銷。而且在行業中，低端並沒有太多利潤，所以低端沒有太多可做的事情。我們看到零售商積極嘗試促銷和推動，我們稱之為低端市場。一般來說，我們發現這些活動在廣告或促銷資金方面並沒有取得成功。

The low-end market is just not right -- not there right now. Again, maybe in marketing terms, the fish aren't there right now. So no, as far as but are we continually looking for ways to help stimulate the market, yes. But I don't think it's really a pricing issue, but if I got to be king for the day, what I'd like to see is more advertising in the marketplace by other manufacturers and others to help just stimulate activity. Because I think there's quite a bit of dollars out there in the middle of the market and the upper end of the market, but entry level is just tough right now.

低端市場現在並不合適。再說一次，也許從營銷角度來說，魚現在不在那裡。所以不，就我們是否不斷尋找幫助刺激市場的方法而言，是的。但我不認為這真的是一個定價問題，但如果我今天要成為王者，我希望看到其他製造商和其他人在市場上做更多廣告，以幫助刺激活動。因為我認為市場中端和高端市場有相當多的資金，但目前入門級還很困難。

And our last question comes from Carla Casella with JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的卡拉·卡塞拉。

I'm wondering about inventory and working capital and your thoughts. Third quarter, I know, is usually a big cash flow quarter for you. Do you think -- are you expecting that again this year? And for the full year, do you still expect working capital release? And do you expect to be able to fully pay down your revolver in the next quarter?

我想知道庫存和營運資金以及您的想法。我知道，第三季度對你來說通常是一個現金流量很大的季度。你認為今年你會再次期待這種情況嗎？對於全年而言，您是否仍預計會釋放營運資金？您預計在下個季度能夠全額還清您的左輪手槍嗎？

Absolutely. Here is the way I would think about it. So we made some investments in working capital as we exited 2023, whether it be in advance of the new product introductions that we have as well as just carrying more safety stock as the supply chain was a little uncertain at that time. As we sit here today, our cash cycle, we've seen some nice improvements, specifically about 6 days in inventory.

絕對地。這是我的思考方式。因此，在 2023 年退出時，我們對營運資本進行了一些投資，無論是在我們推出新產品之前，還是因為當時供應鏈有點不確定而持有更多的安全庫存。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們的現金周期已經看到了一些不錯的改進，特別是大約 6 天的庫存。

As the year plays out is what I would anticipate is that we would see some continued improvement in working capital overall, a little bit from inventory, but I would expect something from the other components as well, that being payables and receivables.

隨著這一年的結束，我預計我們會看到整體營運資本的持續改善，其中一點來自庫存，但我預計其他組成部分也會有所改善，即應付賬款和應收賬款。

As we exit the year, what I would anticipate is that working capital will continue to be a source of cash. And let's say from a historic standpoint is that the flow-through on EBITDA to cash flow is we will see -- we should continue to see that same relationship. Absolutely, the back half of the year is that we generate more cash than the first half. So I would say that we would expect that again this year.

當我們結束這一年時，我預計營運資金將繼續成為現金來源。我們可以說，從歷史的角度來看，我們將看到 EBITDA 向現金流的轉化——我們應該繼續看到同樣的關係。當然，下半年我們產生的現金比上半年更多。所以我想說，今年我們會再次期待這種情況。

What I would further say is that we feel very excited about what we've done from a new plant standpoint. That's in Crawfordsville. That was a $300 million investment in growth CapEx that we made over the last couple of years. And we're very excited to say that we've got some units coming out of that plant. Also what that means is -- from a cash flow standpoint or free cash flow is that, that investment is behind us, so on a year-over-year basis, free cash flow should be greater by about 50% than what it was in the prior year.

我還要說的是，我們對從新工廠的角度所做的事情感到非常興奮。那是在克勞福茲維爾。這是我們在過去幾年中為增長資本支出進行的 3 億美元投資。我們非常高興地說，我們已經從該工廠生產了一些設備。這也意味著——從現金流或自由現金流的角度來看，投資已經過去了，所以與去年同期相比，自由現金流應該比去年增加約 50%前一年。

And then I guess the other part is we've -- we're not doing stock buyback while we're preparing for the Mattress Firm acquisition, so we're going to be drowning in cash. And the leverage ratio should be falling significantly over the next few quarters.

然後我想另一部分是我們在準備收購床墊公司時不會進行股票回購，所以我們將被現金淹沒。未來幾個季度槓桿率應該會大幅下降。

That's right. I think what we're anticipating is obviously in this -- we'll get back within our range in the third quarter. As we sit here today, I would expect to be somewhere at the midpoint of our range of 2% to 3% as we exit the year.

這是正確的。我認為我們的預期顯然是這樣的——我們將在第三季度回到我們的範圍內。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我預計當我們結束今年時，增長率將處於 2% 至 3% 區間的中點。

And we have one last question from Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas 提出了最後一個問題。

A couple of things that investors have been asking us this morning. I was wondering if I could ask. For one, it's been an exciting year with some new retail partnerships like Sam's Club. Scott, I was just wondering if you could give us any update on distribution and how partnerships are going and floor space. And then secondly, just a question on the cybersecurity issue: Is the expectation that operations are normal for the Labor Day selling season? Or do you think it goes into that at all?

今天早上投資者一直在問我們一些問題。我想知道是否可以問一下。首先，對於山姆會員店等一些新的零售合作夥伴來說，這是令人興奮的一年。斯科特，我只是想知道您是否能給我們提供有關分銷、合作夥伴關係以及佔地面積的最新信息。其次，只是一個關於網絡安全問題的問題：勞動節銷售季的運營是否正常？或者你認為這與此有關嗎？

Well, congratulations on slipping in one more question and then making it a 5-point question.

好吧，恭喜你又提出了一個問題，然後將其設為 5 分問題。

Well done.

做得好。

So let me -- first of all, you mentioned a large customer, Sam's. We think that's going well. And we think that, if you ask them, they would say it's going well, so we're thrilled with that relationship. I think you know that Stearns & Foster captured 20% increase in slots, and we certainly feel good about that.

首先，您提到了一個大客戶，Sam's。我們認為進展順利。我們認為，如果你問他們，他們會說進展順利，所以我們對這種關係感到興奮。我想您知道 Stearns & Foster 的老虎機數量增加了 20%，我們當然對此感到滿意。

And clearly from our sales numbers relative to the industry, whether you want to compare it to other public companies or spring volumes or anything, we're clearly taking share. So floor space is increasing and velocities within those slots have been increasing. And then I think you asked a little bit more about like kind of where is the -- cyber thing...

很明顯，從我們相對於行業的銷售數據來看，無論你想將其與其他上市公司或彈簧銷量還是其他什麼進行比較，我們顯然都在搶占份額。因此，佔地面積不斷增加，這些槽內的速度也不斷增加。然後我想你問了更多關於網絡事物在哪裡的問題......

Cyber. Is it normal? Labor Day.

網絡。正常嗎？勞動節。

Yes. I mean look. We obviously have the 8-K out. We're generally building and shipping beds, I mean, right now. We're taking orders right now. We generally lost about a week's worth of production around the world. And then as we bring up the systems, it usually takes a few days to get back to kind of normal efficiency.

是的。我的意思是看。顯然我們已經把 8-K 淘汰了。我的意思是，我們現在通常正在建造和運輸床。我們現在正在接受訂單。我們在全球範圍內損失的產量通常相當於一周的產量。然後，當我們啟動系統時，通常需要幾天時間才能恢復到正常效率。

So -- I don't know. We also had some parts of the organization's that weren't impacted by any of the cyber event, like the Asian joint venture, Dreams, Sherwood, Sleep Outfitters. They weren't affected at all. Our worldwide e-commerce, it wasn't affected, except for a bit slow shipping, so no. I mean I think we're working off a backlog, but I think we're going to get caught up. And I don't really expect to leave the third quarter with any significant backlog, so I don't think it's going to have an impact. And we've certainly tried to work through that when we gave you estimates of the impact of the event.

所以——我不知道。我們組織中的一些部門也沒有受到任何網絡事件的影響，例如亞洲合資企業 Dreams、Sherwood、Sleep Outfitters。他們根本沒有受到影響。我們的全球電子商務沒有受到影響，除了運輸有點慢之外，所以沒有。我的意思是，我認為我們正在處理積壓的工作，但我認為我們會陷入困境。我真的不希望第三季度出現任何重大積壓，所以我認為這不會產生影響。當我們向您提供對該事件影響的估計時，我們當然已經嘗試解決這個問題。

Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions. I would like to turn the call back to Scott Thompson for closing remarks.

謝謝。這就是我們提問的時間。我想將電話轉回給斯科特·湯普森，讓他發表結束語。

Thank you, operator. To our over 13,000 employees around the world, thank you for what you do every day to make the company successful. A special call out again to our IT folks in a very difficult quarter and a great job in dealing with the uncertainty that we faced. To our retail partners, thank you for your outstanding representation of our brands. To our shareholders and lenders, thank you for your confidence in Tempur Sealy's leadership team and its Board of Directors.

謝謝你，接線員。對於我們遍布全球的 13,000 多名員工，感謝你們每天為公司的成功所做的努力。再次特別感謝我們的 IT 人員在這個非常困難的季度，他們在應對我們面臨的不確定性方面做得很好。對於我們的零售合作夥伴，感謝您對我們品牌的傑出代表。對於我們的股東和貸款人，感謝您對泰普爾絲漣領導團隊及其董事會的信任。

This ends the call today, operator.

接線員，今天的通話到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。