Tempur Sealy International Inc (TPX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Somnigroup fourth quarter 2024 earnings call.

    女士們、先生們,早安,歡迎參加 Somnigroup 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Thursday, February 20, 2025.

    (操作員指示)此通話於 2025 年 2 月 20 日星期四錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Aubrey Moore with Investor Relations.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係部的 Aubrey Moore。

  • Please go ahead.

    請繼續。

  • Aubrey Moore - Vice President, Investor Relations, Insights, & Analytics

    Aubrey Moore - Vice President, Investor Relations, Insights, & Analytics

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's call.

    大家早安,感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

  • Joining me today are Scott Thompson, Chairman, President and CEO; and Bhaskar Rao, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    今天與我一起出席的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Scott Thompson;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Bhaskar Rao。

  • This call includes forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款的約束。

  • These forward-looking statements involve uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors that could adversely affect the company's business.

    這些前瞻性陳述涉及不確定性,實際結果可能因各種可能對公司業務產生不利影響的因素而存在重大差異。

  • These factors are discussed on the company's SEC filings, including its annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

    這些因素在該公司的美國證券交易委員會文件中進行了討論,包括 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告。

  • Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of on the date it is made.

    任何前瞻性陳述僅代表其作出之日的觀點。

  • The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

    該公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • This morning's commentary will also include non-GAAP financial information.

    今天早上的評論還將包括非公認會計準則財務資訊。

  • Reconciliations of this non-GAAP financial information can be found in the accompanying press release, which is posted on the company's new investor website at investor.somnigroup.com and filed with the SEC.

    此非公認會計準則財務資訊的對帳可在隨附的新聞稿中找到,該新聞稿發佈在公司新的投資者網站 investor.somnigroup.com 上,並已向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交。

  • Our comments will supplement the detailed information provided in this press release.

    我們的評論將補充本新聞稿中提供的詳細資訊。

  • And now with that introduction, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott.

    現在介紹完畢,我很高興將電話轉給史考特。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Aubrey.

    謝謝你,奧布里。

  • Good morning and thank you for joining us on our first ever earnings and business update call at Somnigroup International, SGI on the New York Stock Exchange.

    早安,感謝您參加我們在紐約證券交易所 SGI 的首次收益和業務更新電話會議。

  • As we previously reported, we successfully completed the merger of Mattress Firm and Tempur Sealy on February 5, and we subsequently changed our parent company name from Tempur Sealy International to Somnigroup International, and as I mentioned, changed our common stock ticker from TPX to SGI.

    正如我們之前報導的那樣,我們在 2 月 5 日成功完成了 Mattress Firm 和 Tempur Sealy 的合併,隨後我們將母公司名稱從 Tempur Sealy International 更改為 Somnigroup International,並且正如我所提到的,將我們的普通股股票代碼從 TPX 更改為 SGI。

  • We're excited to start this new chapter for our company as a global provider of sleep solutions with a portfolio of outstanding businesses and iconic product brands.

    我們很高興能夠開啟公司的新篇章,成為擁有眾多優秀業務和標誌性產品品牌的睡眠解決方案全球提供商。

  • As we've previously shared, Tempur Sealy, Dreams, and Mattress Firm will all operate under their own name as decentralized business units under Somnigroup International.

    正如我們之前所分享的,Tempur Sealy、Dreams 和 Mattress Firm 都將以自己的名義作為 Somnigroup International 旗下的分散業務部門運作。

  • Mattress Firm and Dreams will continue to operate as multi-branded retailers, and Tempur Sealy, primarily a manufacturer, will continue to serve third party retailers as well as Mattress Firm, dreams, and Tempur Sealy direct to consumer channel.

    Mattress Firm 和 Dreams 將繼續作為多品牌零售商經營,而主要作為製造商的 Tempur Sealy 將繼續為第三方零售商以及 Mattress Firm、dreams 和 Tempur Sealy 直銷通路提供服務。

  • We'll begin recording Masters Firm's operations next quarter.

    我們將於下個季度開始記錄 Masters Firm 的營運。

  • Turning to today's earnings release.

    談談今天的收益報告。

  • I'll begin with some highlights from the fourth quarter and full year 2024, and then turn the call over to Baskar to review our financial performance in more detail and discuss our 2025 guidance.

    我將首先介紹 2024 年第四季和全年的一些亮點,然後將電話轉給巴斯卡 (Baskar),以更詳細地回顧我們的財務業績並討論我們的 2025 年指引。

  • After that, I will share some thoughts about the opportunities unlocked by the transaction.

    之後,我將分享一些關於此次交易所釋放的機會的想法。

  • Before opening the call up for Q&A.

    在開始問答環節之前。

  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, net sales were approximately $1.2 billion, and adjusted EPS was $0.60. We outperformed our fourth quarter expectations led by strong performance in our international business.

    2024 年第四季,淨銷售額約為 12 億美元,調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元。由於國際業務表現強勁,我們的第四季業績超出預期。

  • Our North America business continued to extend its lead in the industry as we delivered fourth quarter sales consistent with prior year despite an estimated single digit decline in the overall industry.

    儘管整個行業的銷售額預計會出現個位數下降,但我們的北美業務繼續擴大在該行業的領先地位,因為我們第四季度的銷售額與去年同期持平。

  • Excluding the negative impact from foreclosed distribution resulting from an unanticipated customer being acquired, our North America sales grew low single digits in the quarter.

    除去由於獲得意外客戶而導致的損失分配的負面影響,我們本季度的北美銷售額增長了個位數。

  • Turning to a few highlights.

    談幾個亮點。

  • First is the enduring strength of our business model, which allows us to invest in growth initiatives and aggressively explore long-term opportunities while remaining responsive to near-term industry conditions.

    首先是我們商業模式的持久優勢,這使我們能夠投資於成長計劃,積極探索長期機會,同時對近期行業狀況保持敏捷反應。

  • In 2024, Tempur Sealy outperformed the industry worldwide.

    2024年,Tempur Sealy 的表現超越全球產業。

  • Differentiated by its strong fundamentals of its business model.

    因其商業模式的強大基本面而與眾不同。

  • We delivered the strongest sales and gross margins in Tempur Sealy's history and reinforced our strategic third party partnerships by upholding our commitments to industry leading product quality and service.

    我們實現了 Tempur Sealy 歷史上最強勁的銷售額和毛利率,並透過堅持對行業領先產品品質和服務的承諾,加強了我們與第三方的策略合作夥伴關係。

  • We also delivered our strongest operating margin in three years, even as we continue to invest in the future.

    即使我們繼續對未來進行投資,我們也實現了三年來最高的營業利潤率。

  • We've ramped our advertising spin, opened more than 100 company-owned stores, and invested in e-commerce platforms for Sealy and Stearns and Foster in the US over the three year period.

    三年來,我們加大了廣告宣傳力度,開設了 100 多家自營商店,並為美國的 Sealy、Stearns 和 Foster 投資了電子商務平台。

  • We reported a robust $569 million in free cash flow, our strongest annual free cash flow since 2021.

    我們報告稱,自由現金流強勁,達到 5.69 億美元,這是自 2021 年以來最強勁的年度自由現金流。

  • We also decreased our debt to adjusted if it got a leverage ratio from 2.9 times at December 31, 2023 to 2.3 times at December 31, 2024, as we prepared for the mattress term transactions, demonstrating our disciplined cash management and ability to quickly deleverage the business.

    我們也將債務調整後的槓桿率從 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 2.9 倍降至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 2.3 倍,為床墊期限交易做好準備,這展示了我們嚴謹的現金管理和快速去槓桿的能力。

  • Our results are particularly notable when put in context to the broader industry trend. 2024 was another challenging year for betting, as we believe industry demand declined high single digits in the US and the trend similarly in many other key markets in the world.

    當我們將其放在更廣泛的行業趨勢中時,我們的成果就顯得特別引人注目。 2024 年對博彩業來說又是充滿挑戰的一年,因為我們認為美國的產業需求下降了個位數,而且世界許多其他主要市場也呈現類似的趨勢。

  • Looking at the last few years, we believe the US industry volume declined more than 30% from peak mattress sales in 2021 to 2024.

    回顧過去幾年,我們認為美國產業銷售將從 2021 年到 2024 年的床墊銷售高峰期下降 30% 以上。

  • However, we are confident in the fundamentals of the betting industry remains solid.

    然而,我們相信博彩業的基本面依然穩固。

  • We believe the market is clearly poised for growth driven by GDP and population growth, housing turnover, and ASP expansion.

    我們相信,在 GDP 和人口成長、房屋週轉率和 ASP 擴張的推動下,市場已明顯準備好實現成長。

  • We anticipate the market will begin to normalize in 2025 and return to some growth in the back half of the year.

    我們預計市場將在 2025 年開始正常化,並在下半年恢復成長。

  • Over time, we are confident in the return to the historical mid-single digit growth rate driven by innovation, population growth, replacement cycle, and ASP expansion.

    隨著時間的推移,我們有信心在創新、人口成長、更換週期和 ASP 擴張的推動下,恢復到歷史中個位數成長率。

  • Additionally, based on the volume decline in the last three years, we also believe that pent up demand from deferred purchases could provide additional upside to growth assumptions.

    此外,基於過去三年的銷售下降,我們也認為,延期購買所釋放的被壓抑的需求可能會為成長假設提供額外的上行空間。

  • The Second highlight is the outperformance of our US business.

    第二個亮點是我們美國業務的出色表現。

  • Supported by innovative new products, targeted advertising initiatives, and expanded distribution.

    透過創新的新產品、有針對性的廣告計劃和擴大的分銷來支持。

  • Our temper brand outperformed the market and delivered profitable sales growth in 2024, supported by the success of our new products.

    在新產品成功的推動下,我們的 Temper 品牌表現優於市場,並在 2024 年實現了獲利性的銷售成長。

  • Refreshed tempur lineup with its new Breeze products and Smart Base launched in 2023, followed by the rollout of our updated Adapt collection and ActiveBreeze Halo product in 2024, Grove retail traffic and ASP.

    更新的 Tempur 系列包括 2023 年推出的新款 Breeze 產品和 Smart Base,隨後在 2024 年推出更新的 Adapt 系列和 ActiveBreeze Halo 產品、Grove 零售流量和 ASP。

  • These products are attracting a growing number of health conscious consumers and include our newest innovative features which address key barriers to achieving better sleep, including cutting edge cooling technologies, advanced pressure relief, and AI driven sleep insights.

    這些產品吸引了越來越多注重健康的消費者,其中包括我們最新的創新功能,這些功能解決了實現更好睡眠的主要障礙,包括尖端的冷卻技術、先進的壓力緩解和人工智慧驅動的睡眠洞察。

  • Stearns and Foster also performed well in 2024.

    斯特恩斯和福斯特在 2024 年也表現出色。

  • Driven by last year's newest product launch, our ongoing investment in advertising, and over 20% growth in our Sterns and Foster e-commerce platform.

    受去年最新產品的推出、我們對廣告的持續投資以及 Sterns and Foster 電子商務平台超過 20% 的成長的推動。

  • Our Sealy and OEM business performed well relative to the industry.

    我們的 Sealy 和 OEM 業務相對於業界表現良好。

  • The mounting industry pressure over the last three years resulted in consolidation, restructuring, and bankruptcies across the US industry.

    過去三年來,產業壓力不斷增大,導緻美國整個產業出現整合、重組和破產。

  • In 2024, results include the negative sales impact of these events on our Sealy and OEM products, as well as incremental provisions for losses triggered by these events.

    2024 年的結果包括這些事件對我們的 Sealy 和 OEM 產品銷售造成的負面影響,以及由這些事件引發的損失的增量準備金。

  • Turning to our 2025 product launch.

    談到我們的2025年產品發表。

  • We're excited to share that after months of incredible retail excitement and feedback, the launch of our all new Sealy Posturepedic kicked off last month.

    我們很高興地告訴大家,經過數月的令人難以置信的零售興奮和回饋,我們全新的 Sealy Posturepedic 已於上個月啟動。

  • This is the largest product launch in betting history.

    這是博彩史上規模最大的產品發布。

  • Orders for the new collection are on track, with an estimate 80% floor samples to be shipped before Memorial Day.

    新系列的訂單進展順利,預計 80% 的地板樣品將在陣亡將士紀念日之前發貨。

  • This highly anticipated line is a significant reimagining of the Posturepedic products, brands, and marketing.

    這條備受期待的產品線是對 Posturepedic 產品、品牌和行銷的重大重塑。

  • And it's aimed at reigniting growth in the value to mid-tier price point where we and retailers see tremendous opportunities.

    其目的是重新激發中端價位產品的價值成長,我們和零售商在這一領域看到了巨大的機會。

  • This updated Sealy Posturepedic collection is clearly differentiated from competitive offerings with all new proprietary coil technology.

    此款升級版的 Sealy Posturepedic 系列採用全新的專有線圈技術,與競爭產品有明顯差異。

  • These patent pending precision fit coils were expertly designed and engineered in-house to provide superior support, which has been the mission of Sealy Posturepedic since its inception in 1950.

    這些正在申請專利的精密配合線圈由公司內部的專業設計和製造,以提供卓越的支撐,這也是 Sealy Posturepedic 自 1950 年成立以來的使命。

  • The 2025 Posturepedic collection also features a bold new look thoughtfully designed to offer a fresh style and appeal to a broad audience while staying connected to the Sealy brand legacy.

    2025 Posturepedic 系列還採用了大膽的新外觀,經過精心設計,提供全新的風格並吸引廣大受眾,同時與 Sealy 品牌的傳統保持一致。

  • Our new precision fit coils have an initial field that is highly flexible and can form for lighter support and body types.

    我們的新型精密配合線圈具有高度靈活的初始場,可以形成更輕的支撐和體型。

  • It then reacts progressively to an individuals unique weight and shape to give the right amount of total support.

    然後,它會根據個人獨特的體重和體形逐步做出反應,提供適當量的整體支撐。

  • These new Posturepedic products deliver a demonstrable step change, improvement in comfort and support.

    這些新的 Posturepedic 產品帶來了明顯的進步,舒適度和支撐性都得到了改善。

  • This has resonated well with customers and retailers.

    這引起了顧客和零售商的強烈共鳴。

  • To support this launch, we'll kick off a national advertising campaign, the first national ad campaign for Sealy in over a decade, beginning Memorial Day 2025.

    為了支持此次發布,我們將啟動全國性廣告活動,這是 Sealy 十多年來首次全國性廣告活動,從 2025 年陣亡將士紀念日開始。

  • This top of funnel multimedia campaign is designed to reinforce the Posturepedic difference and drive excitement and purchase intent for the company's largest product brand and America's number one mattress brand.

    這個漏斗頂端的多媒體活動旨在強化 Posturepedic 的差異性,並激發人們對該公司最大產品品牌和美國第一個床墊品牌的興趣和購買意願。

  • As evidenced by the above, we continue to make higher return investments in brand and product to drive retailer success.

    綜上所述,我們持續對品牌和產品進行更高回報的投資,以推動零售商的成功。

  • Turning to our third highlight, we are pleased to report strong international business performance in 2024, driven by both continued strength in our legacy, temper operations and our dream business.

    談到我們的第三個亮點,我們很高興地報告 2024 年強勁的國際業務表現,這得益於我們傳統業務、回火運營和夢想業務的持續強勁增長。

  • They delivered solid mid-single digit growth and expanded operating margin for the full year 2024, reflecting robust momentum despite a generally subdued global market.

    他們在 2024 年全年實現了穩健的中個位數成長並擴大了營業利潤率,反映出儘管全球市場普遍低迷,但仍保持了強勁的發展勢頭。

  • A key driver of this performance has been the continued success of our all new international Tempur collection.

    這項業績表現的關鍵推動因素是我們全新國際 Tempur 系列的持續成功。

  • Which completed its main roll out mid 2024, with several channels and customers specific products continuing to roll out in 2025.

    該產品將於 2024 年中期完成主要推出,並將於 2025 年繼續推出多個通路和客戶特定產品。

  • This collection of mattresses, bed bases, pillows has significantly outperformed expectations in key markets such as the UK, Germany, China, and Australia.

    該系列床墊、床架和枕頭在英國、德國、中國和澳洲等主要市場的表現遠遠超出預期。

  • Since the start of its launch in 2023, we've expanded wholesale distribution by more than 10%, and we see substantial opportunities for further growth and distribution over the long term.

    自 2023 年推出以來,我們已將批發分銷擴大了 10% 以上,並且我們看到了長期進一步增長和分銷的巨大機會。

  • The strong demand for these products coupled with the additional expansion opportunity underscores our confidence that the international temper collection will remain a key growth driver in the years to come.

    這些產品的強勁需求加上額外的擴張機會,凸顯了我們的信心,即國際鋼筆收藏仍將是未來幾年的主要成長動力。

  • Our fourth highlight is our significant growth margin ex dimension.

    我們的第四個亮點是我們的維度顯著的成長幅度。

  • In 2024, we achieved year over year improvement of 130 basis points in our consolidated gross margin, driven by our ongoing investment in new product innovation, and improved product mix, and the optimization of our manufacturing processes and cost reduction initiatives.

    2024 年,我們的綜合毛利率年增了 130 個基點,這得益於我們對新產品創新的持續投資、改進的產品結構以及製造流程的優化和成本降低舉措。

  • These strategic initiatives have allowed us to increase operating efficiency, which in turn has provided us with more resources to reinvest in advertising, product development, and our people.

    這些策略舉措使我們提高了營運效率,從而為我們提供了更多資源來重新投資於廣告、產品開發和人才。

  • While we've made strides to grow and fortify the business in 2024, we believe that significant opportunities still lie ahead.

    雖然我們在 2024 年取得了長足的發展和鞏固業務的成就,但我們相信未來仍有重大機會。

  • Our continued focus on key growth and cost efficiency initiatives will ensure that we are in an optimal position to benefit from the global betting industry recovery.

    我們將繼續專注於關鍵的成長和成本效率舉措,以確保我們處於最佳位置,從全球博彩業的復甦中獲益。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Bhaskar.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉給巴斯卡 (Bhaskar)。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Scott.

    謝謝你,斯科特。

  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, consolidated sales were approximately $1.2 billion and adjusted its earnings per share was $0.60. We have $45 million of pro forma adjustments in the quarter, all of which are consistent with the terms of our senior credit facility.

    2024 年第四季,綜合銷售額約為 12 億美元,調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元。我們本季的預計調整額為 4,500 萬美元,全部符合我們的高級信貸安排的條款。

  • These adjustments are largely comprised of costs incurred for professional fees related to the acquisition of Mattress Firm.

    這些調整主要包括與收購 Mattress Firm 相關的專業費用的成本。

  • In the unexpected, foreclosed distribution Scott previously mentioned, including transition and wind-down costs.

    在史考特之前提到的意外的、被取消贖回權的分配中,包括過渡成本和逐步減少的成本。

  • Turning to North American results.

    轉向北美的結果。

  • Net sales in the fourth quarter were consistent to the prior year.

    第四季的淨銷售額與上年持平。

  • On a reported basis, the wholesale channel was consistent and the direct channel is 3%.

    據報道,批發管道保持一致,直銷管道為 3%。

  • North American adjusted gross profit margin improved to 40.8%, primarily driven by operational efficiency.

    北美調整後毛利率提高至40.8%,主要得益於營運效率的提升。

  • North American adjusted operating margin declined to 14.8%, driven by operating expense the leverage from investments and advertising and fully reserving the balance sheet for the event Scott mentioned a moment ago.

    北美調整後營業利潤率下降至 14.8%,原因是營業費用、投資和廣告的槓桿以及為斯科特剛才提到的事件完全保留資產負債表。

  • Now turning to international.

    現在轉向國際。

  • Net sales increased 14% on a reported basis and 13% on a constant currency basis in the fourth quarter.

    第四季淨銷售額以報告基礎計算成長了 14%,以固定匯率計算成長了 13%。

  • As compared to the prior year, our international gross margin improved to 58%, driven by operational efficiencies in favorable mix.

    與前一年相比,由於業務組合優化,營運效率提高,我們的國際毛利率提高至 58%。

  • Our international operating margin improved to 21.2%, driven by the improved gross margin and operating expense leverage, partially offset by a decline in our Asian joint venture performance as it manages through a weak Chinese market.

    我們的國際營業利潤率提高至 21.2%,這得益於毛利率和營業費用槓桿的提高,但因亞洲合資企業在中國市場表現疲軟,其業績出現下滑,部分抵消了這一影響。

  • Now moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow items.

    現在轉到資產負債表和現金流量項目。

  • At the end of the fourth quarter, consolidated debt less cash was $2.1 billion and our leverage ratio under our credit facility was 2.3 times.

    第四季末,合併債務減去現金為 21 億美元,我們信貸安排下的槓桿率為 2.3 倍。

  • Within our historical target range of 2 times to 3 times.

    在我們的2倍到3倍的歷史目標範圍內。

  • Fourth quarter, we generated operating cash flow of $129 million.

    第四季度,我們產生了1.29億美元的營運現金流。

  • Following the close of the Mattress Firm transaction, our net leverage was approximately 3.5 times.

    在 Mattress Firm 交易結束後,我們的淨槓桿比率約為 3.5 倍。

  • We expect to return to our target leverage range of 2 times to 3 times and for share repurchases to be minimal over the near term.

    我們預計短期內槓桿率將恢復到 2 倍至 3 倍的目標範圍,且股票回購量將降至最低。

  • We should note that under the terms of our credit facility, our leverage calculation going forward will include the benefit of run rate synergies.

    我們應該注意,根據我們的信貸安排條款,我們未來的槓桿計算將包括運行率綜效的好處。

  • Our expectation is that we will realize at least $100 million in annual run rate synergies by 2028.

    我們預計到 2028 年我們將實現至少 1 億美元的年運行率綜效。

  • Before I discuss the 2025 outlook in detail, I want to highlight how we are reflecting the transaction in our guidance.

    在詳細討論 2025 年展望之前,我想先強調我們如何在指導中反映交易。

  • Our guidance considers the previously announced divestiture and the elimination of intercompany sales between Mattress Firm and Tempur Sealy.

    我們的指導考慮了先前宣布的資產剝離以及 Mattress Firm 和 Tempur Sealy 之間的公司間銷售的取消。

  • We expect the intercompany sales to represent approximately 18% of global Tempur Sealy 2024 sales.

    我們預計公司間銷售額約佔 Tempur Sealy 2024 年全球銷售額的 18%。

  • Intercompany eliminations will reduce Tempur Sealy sale, but will be a sorry, will be margin accretive and neutral to EPS.

    公司間抵銷將減少 Tempur Sealy 的銷售額,但遺憾的是,這將增加利潤率,並且對每股盈餘沒有影響。

  • Please note, these two factors will import will impact our reported sales going forward.

    請注意,這兩個因素將會影響我們未來報告的銷售額。

  • I will be highlighting like for like to normalize these items in some of the guidance commentaries that follows.

    我將在接下來的一些指導評論中逐一強調這些項目的規範化。

  • We also expect first year synergies to benefit of approximately $10 million primarily realized in the back half of the year, with an anticipated ramp in subsequent years.

    我們也預計第一年的綜效將帶來約 1,000 萬美元的收益,主要在下半年實現,預計隨後幾年將逐步增加。

  • I should also note there will be some P&L landscaping across COGS and operating expenses to align accounting policies to the two organizations.

    我還應該指出,將對銷貨成本和營運費用進行一些損益調整,以保持兩個組織的會計政策一致。

  • Please refer to the investor presentation posted to our website this morning for further detail on the impact of this policy alignment and other acquisition-related items.

    請參閱今天早上發佈到我們網站上的投資者介紹,以了解有關此政策調整和其他收購相關項目的影響的更多詳細資訊。

  • As we begin reporting Mattress Firm and our consolidated results in the first quarter, we will maintain our historical reporting segments with the addition of a new segment for the Mattress Firm business.

    當我們在第一季開始報告床墊公司和我們的綜合業績時,我們將保留我們的歷史報告分部,並增加一個床墊公司業務的新分部。

  • Now turning to our 2025 guidance.

    現在來談談我們 2025 年的指導。

  • We expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.60 to $3 which at the midpoint is a 10% growth versus 2024.

    我們預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 2.60 美元至 3 美元之間,中間值較 2024 年成長 10%。

  • Our guidance is based on sales after intercompany elimination to be between $7.5 billion and $7.8 billion on a reported basis.

    我們的預期是基於公司間抵銷後的銷售額在報告基礎上介於 75 億美元至 78 億美元之間。

  • Our guidance also reflects Our expectations of the global betting industry will be stable versus the prior year, which implies slight headwinds in the first half and recovery in the second half of 2025.

    我們的指引也反映了我們對全球博彩業將與上年保持穩定的預期,這意味著 2025 年上半年將略有逆風,下半年將出現復甦。

  • Our like for like Tempur Sealy sales growing slightly and on a reported basis down high-teens due to the acquisition factors previously discussed.

    由於先前討論過的收購因素,我們的同類 Tempur Sealy 銷售額略有成長,但報告顯示銷售額下降了 10% 以上。

  • Our Tempur Sealy North America sales to be flattish on a like for like basis, driven by the outperforming the industry due to the continued momentum of our product and channel strategies.

    由於我們的產品和通路策略持續保持強勁勢頭,我們的 Tempur Sealy 北美銷售額較去年同期持平,這得益於該行業表現優於其他產品。

  • And comping over the foreclosed distribution and prior floor models which combined represent mincing headwind in North America Tempur Sealy sales.

    與法拍分銷和先前的樓層模型相比,它們結合起來代表了北美 Tempur Sealy 銷售的強勁逆風。

  • Our international business growing low single digits, which includes the continued momentum of our omnichannel expansion strategy and a slight headwind in the first quarter as we lap prior to your launch.

    我們的國際業務呈現低個位數成長,其中包括我們的全通路擴張策略的持續發展勢頭,以及在第一季度因我們即將推出新產品而遭遇的輕微阻力。

  • We also expect high single digit growth on a constant currency basis in our international segment.

    我們也預計,以固定匯率計算,我們的國際業務將實現高個位數成長。

  • And our like for like Mattress Firm sales growing slightly supported by in-store initiatives to drive average order value in conversion.

    在店內措施的支持下,我們的同類 Mattress Firm 銷售額略有成長,從而提高了平均訂單價值的轉換率。

  • We also expect reported gross margins to be similar to recorded 2024 gross margin, which includes a $15 million dollar headwind from foreign exchange.

    我們還預計報告的毛利率將與記錄的 2024 年毛利率相似,其中包括來自外匯的 1500 萬美元逆風。

  • $730 million of advertising investment, which implies a slight step up in temporal advertising.

    7.3億美元的廣告投入,意味著時間廣告的投入略有增加。

  • All resulting in a just an EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.

    所有這些導致 EBITDA 僅為約 13 億至 14 億美元。

  • Regarding capital expenditures, we expect 2025 cap act of approximately $250 million including $50 million of investments to refresh mattress from stores.

    關於資本支出,我們預計 2025 年的資本支出約為 2.5 億美元,其中包括 5,000 萬美元的投資用於更新商店的床墊。

  • Over the long term, we expect normalized run rate Somnigroup CapEx to be approximately $200 million.

    從長遠來看,我們預計 Somnigroup 資本支出的正常運作率約為 2 億美元。

  • Lastly, I would like to flag a few modeling items.

    最後,我想標記一些建模項目。

  • For the full year 2025, we expect D&A of approximately $295 million to $305 million.

    我們預計 2025 年全年的折舊和攤銷前利潤約為 2.95 億至 3.05 億美元。

  • Interest expense of approximately $265 million to $275 million.

    利息支出約為 2.65 億美元至 2.75 億美元。

  • On a tax rate of 25% with a diluted share count of $210 million shares.

    稅率為 25%,稀釋後股份總數為 2.1 億股。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back to Scott.

    說完這些,我就把電話轉回給史考特。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Bhaskar.

    謝謝你,巴斯卡。

  • Great job.

    做得好。

  • Before turning the call over for Q&A.

    在轉入問答環節之前。

  • I'd like once again to express my long-term optimism about the recently completed acquisition of Mattress Firm.

    我想再次表達我對最近完成的 Mattress Firm 收購案的長期樂觀態度。

  • We have collaborately worked with Mattress Firm for over 35 years, and we are thrilled to welcome them into our organization and unlock incremental benefits to all stakeholders.

    我們與 Mattress Firm 合作已有 35 年多,我們非常高興歡迎他們加入我們的組織,並為所有利害關係人帶來增量利益。

  • Let me conclude by taking a step back to share our long term perspective.

    最後,我想退一步來分享我們的長期觀點。

  • We've seen our markets performing below their historical trend line growth, and despite this, our execution has led to adjusted earnings per share growth.

    我們看到我們的市場表現低於歷史趨勢線成長,儘管如此,我們的執行力還是帶來了調整後的每股盈餘成長。

  • We believe 2025 will benefit from continued execution.

    我們相信,2025年將受益於持續的執行。

  • And the Mattress Firm transaction.

    以及 Mattress Firm 交易。

  • Looking beyond this year, we are planning for markets to return to growth while simultaneously realizing incremental benefits from the Mattress Firm transaction and continued industry leading execution.

    展望今年以後,我們計劃讓市場恢復成長,同時從 Mattress Firm 交易和繼續保持行業領先地位的執行中獲得增量收益。

  • We're internally targeting sales to grow at a compound annual growth rate of mid-single digits starting in 2026.

    我們的內部目標是,從 2026 年開始,銷售額以中等個位數的年複合成長率成長。

  • This indicates Somnigroup adjusted EPS would increase from the $2.80 the midpoint of the guidance for 2025, to approximately $4.85 by 2028.

    這表明 Somnigroup 調整後的每股收益將從 2025 年指引中點的 2.80 美元增加到 2028 年的約 4.85 美元。

  • A compound annual growth rate of 20%.

    年複合成長率20%。

  • That ends our prepared remarks operator.

    我們的準備好的演講到此結束。

  • Please open the call up for questions.

    請打開電話,回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指令)

  • Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家早安。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, Susan.

    早安,蘇珊。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Good morning, Scott.

    早安,史考特。

  • I want to start with your expectations for some normalization in the industry this year.

    首先我想問一下您對今年行業正常化的期望。

  • I guess, can you talk a bit more about what is driving that outlook, given the macro environment that we're coming into the year with and the state of the consumer, and then just talk a bit about your ability to execute against that and how we should think about first half versus second half.

    我想,考慮到我們今年的宏觀環境和消費者狀況,您能否再多談一下推動這種前景的因素,然後談談您針對這些因素的執行能力,以及我們應該如何看待上半年和下半年。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure, thank you for the question.

    當然,感謝您的提問。

  • Look, I mean, I would say we're still in that bouncing around the bottom which we've used, here for the last couple of years where you have starts and stops.

    看,我的意思是,我想說我們仍然處於過去幾年一直徘徊在底部的狀態,時而開始,時而停止。

  • I would expect the first half of the year to be a little bit less robust, than the back half.

    我預計今年上半年的強勁程度會比下半年稍微低一點。

  • We had a strong period, towards the end of last year and the start of this year.

    去年年底和今年年初,我們經歷了一段強勁的時期。

  • And then ran into a little bit of a, air pocket during President's Day, which I think has been well reported.

    然後在總統日期間遇到了一點空氣袋,我認為這已經被充分報道了。

  • It's a little bit slow or muted during President's Day, but we're continuing to see what I call steady business, but I wouldn't say we're expecting normalization, really until you get to 2026.

    總統日期間,業務可能會稍微緩慢一些,但我們仍將看到所謂的穩定業務,但我不會說我們期待業務正常化,實際上要到 2026 年才會實現。

  • I think some of that is driven based on new product.

    我認為其中一些是由新產品推動的。

  • We're very optimistic about the Sealy launch.

    我們對 Sealy 的上市非常樂觀。

  • Some of the Sealy products been in the market for a while.

    一些 Sealy 產品已經上市有一段時間了。

  • So this is, as we mentioned the largest launch in bedding history.

    正如我們所提到的,這是床上用品歷史上規模最大的一次發布。

  • That product is, just now getting on the floors and where it's being placed it's being well received.

    該產品目前已開始銷售,並且受到了廣泛好評。

  • But we're continuing to be we'll call it cautious, near term and optimistic long term.

    但我們仍將保持謹慎,短期內持謹慎態度,長期內持樂觀態度。

  • Now for some reason the market is different than we expect.

    現在由於某種原因,市場與我們的預期不同。

  • I think as the business model is relatively flexible.

    我認為商業模式相對靈活。

  • And we can flex up if we need to, or we can flex down, if the market tells us that's what we need to do.

    如果需要,我們可以提高利率,如果市場告訴我們需要這麼做,我們也可以降低利率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America Securities.

    美國銀行證券公司的 Rafe Jadrosich。

  • Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

    Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Thanks for taking my question.

    感謝您回答我的問題。

  • I just wanted to follow up on the long term guidance that you provided, the $485.

    我只是想跟進您提供的長期指導,即 485 美元。

  • Can you give a little bit more color on how much of that is accretion maybe relative to core TPX?

    您能否更詳細地說明其中有多少是相對於核心 TPX 的吸積?

  • And is that assuming $100 million of synergies, or is that just getting operating leverage on Mattress Firm?

    這是假設 1 億美元的綜效嗎,還是只是獲得 Mattress Firm 的經營槓桿?

  • And then just, so I know it's a long question, but then the mid-single digit growth you're assuming is that industry or is that TPX and then industry something below that.

    然後,我知道這是一個很長的問題,但是您假設的中等個位數成長是該行業還是 TPX 然後是低於該水平的行業。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great, let me talk for a while and I'm sure I'm going to miss some of the 12 questions in there and clean me up a little bit.

    太好了,讓我講一會兒,我肯定會錯過其中的一些問題,讓我稍微清醒一下。

  • Look, we want to give you a perspective.

    看,我們想給你一個觀點。

  • I wouldn't call that quote guidance, but look, this is such a transformational acquisition.

    我不會稱之為報價指引,但你看,這是一次具有變革意義的收購。

  • We knew we'd blow up people's models.

    我們知道我們會毀掉人們的模型。

  • And we thought we ought to put something out there to give people, put something that's, tell you kind of internally, generally it's got $100 million of synergies in it over the period, with what I call a slow start, for lots for some reasons we can talk about in a second, primarily and that the FTC wouldn't let us talk to each other for a while, so the teams are just now getting back together.

    我們認為我們應該把一些東西拿出來給人們,把一些東西告訴你們內部情況,一般來說,在這段時間內,它會產生 1 億美元的協同效應,我稱之為緩慢的開始,出於很多原因,我們可以在稍後討論,主要是因為聯邦貿易委員會 (FTC) 暫時不允許我們互相交談,所以團隊現在才重新聚在一起。

  • And shows the industry, getting back to normal, and looks in the 5% we'll call it for talking terms, that's our revenue growth in the perspective.

    這表明行業正在恢復正常,從談判條款來看,我們稱之為 5%,這是我們的收入成長前景。

  • May be conservative, may not, I think we mentioned that there may be pent up demand we don't know yet, but I think it's a good baseline assumption.

    可能是保守的,也可能不是,我想我們提到可能存在我們還不知道的被壓抑的需求,但我認為這是一個很好的基準假設。

  • And then I hope the teams are going to work harder and have a bigger synergy number, over time, but I think that could give you a good idea of internally, what we're targeting.

    然後我希望團隊能夠更加努力,隨著時間的推移,擁有更大的協同效應,但我認為這可以讓你很好地了解我們的內部目標。

  • So you want to speak to some of that?

    那麼您想談論一下這些嗎?

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • So just a little bit of a double tap.

    只需輕輕雙擊即可。

  • So when you think about the category, think about it globally, as Scott mentioned is that we would expect to grow market share ahead.

    因此,當您考慮這個類別時,請從全球角度考慮,正如斯科特所提到的那樣,我們預計未來市場份額將會擴大。

  • From a category standpoint, so as you think about that globally and anywhere between 3% to 5% as mentioned.

    從類別的角度來看,如所提到的,在全球範圍內,這一比例在 3% 到 5% 之間。

  • Also synergies absolutely is that we're in for at least $100 million over that period and yes there is a component of incremental productivity going through a manufacturing process.

    綜效絕對是這樣的,我們在那段時期內至少投入了 1 億美元,而且製造過程中確實存在增量生產力的組成部分。

  • So both leverage as those units start to become come back.

    因此,當這些單位開始恢復時,兩種槓桿都會發揮作用。

  • Interestingly, at the end of 2028, assuming the category assumptions units, we don't have to add any more incremental capacity or incremental CapEx to be able to support that level of business.

    有趣的是,到 2028 年底,假設類別假設單位,我們不需要再增加任何增量容量或增量資本支出即可支持該級別的業務。

  • As I think about the rest of the investments as we continue to support our brand through advertising, also we had called out that we're going to invest some dollars in refurbing the mattress from stores.

    當我考慮其餘的投資時,我們繼續透過廣告支持我們的品牌,我們也宣布將投資一些資金來翻新商店的床墊。

  • So, that cash flow is embedded in that as well as the incremental depreciation that would come to that.

    所以,現金流和隨之而來的增量折舊都包含其中。

  • So you put all that together, you get to a mid-single digit growth on the top line with EPS growing at 20% CAGR.

    所以,把所有這些放在一起,你就會得到中等個位數的營收成長,而每股盈餘的複合年增長率為 20%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bobby Griffin, Raymond James.

    鮑比·格里芬、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Bobby Griffin - Analyst

    Bobby Griffin - Analyst

  • Good morning, everybody.

    大家早安。

  • Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on getting the deal done.

    感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀您達成交易。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Bobby Griffin - Analyst

    Bobby Griffin - Analyst

  • So I guess I want to first hit on just the core Tempur Sealy, manufacturing efficiencies and kind of your view of the gross margins that we saw in fiscal year '24.

    所以我想我首先想談談 Tempur Sealy 的核心、製造效率以及您對 24 財年的毛利率的看法。

  • Is that a fair starting base?

    這是一個公平的起點嗎?

  • Where do you think things are?

    您認為情況如何?

  • Is the business over earning on some aspects, under earning on others?

    企業是否在某些方面獲利過高,而在其他方面獲利過低?

  • Just kind of level set us then.

    那時我們就處於某種水平。

  • And then my second part I'm going to do a two part question that Scott loves the 260 low end of guidance versus reporting 255, can you maybe just connect that?

    然後我的第二部分要問兩個問題,斯科特喜歡 260 的低端指導而不是報告 255,你能把它們聯繫起來嗎?

  • Is that just industry down again in '25 just, that basically flat despite having mattress from in there just curious on the on the low end of guidance the drivers behind that.

    這是否只是 25 年行業再次下滑,儘管有床墊,但基本上持平,只是對指導價低端背後的驅動因素感到好奇。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So, maybe I'll start with from a gross profit standpoint.

    因此,也許我會從毛利的角度開始。

  • Absolutely, Bobby, is it that, when I think about the opportunities and from a go forward standpoint on a Tempur Sealy standalone and just from a definitional standpoint, we'll introduce a like for like.

    當然,Bobby,當我考慮機會並從 Tempur Sealy 獨立發展的角度以及從定義的角度考慮時,我們會引入同類產品。

  • The like for like is everything outside of acquisition items.

    同類事物是指收購物品以外的一切事物。

  • So yeah, nice gross margin expansion in the in the fourth quarter caught over 100 basis points and if I think about the big driver of that, it's really the productivity and the leverage going through the plants and as an expectation going forward is I would think about that on a like for like basis as we get into '25 and beyond on the Tempur Sealy standalone basis.

    是的,第四季度的毛利率擴大了 100 個基點以上,如果我考慮其主要驅動因素,那實際上是工廠的生產率和槓桿率,作為對未來的預期,我會在進入 25 年及以後的 Tempur Sealy 獨立基礎上以同類基礎來考慮這一點。

  • What I would further say is as it relates to non-recurring good guys, in fact, if you look at our fourth quarter, we did eat some items, so we called out the foreclosed business, the large big box retailer that is now fully reserved, so that was about a $10 million of bad debt we had to step over.

    我還要說的是,就非經常性損益而言,事實上,如果你看看我們的第四季度,我們確實吃了一些東西,所以我們叫出了被止贖的業務,大型倉儲式零售商現在已經完全保留,所以這是大約 1000 萬美元的壞賬,我們必須跨越。

  • Also the abrupt foreclosure of our OEM business or a piece of our OEM business and that cost us a couple of percent in the fourth quarter as it relates to top line.

    此外,我們的 OEM 業務或部分 OEM 業務突然被取消,這導致我們第四季度的營收損失了幾個百分點。

  • So in fact when I look at the fourth quarter.

    事實上當我看第四季時。

  • We're pleased with how revenue came in, international was super exciting, as well as the landscaping across the P&L gross profit continues to be a great story.

    我們對收入的增加感到滿意,國際業務非常令人興奮,損益表毛利的狀況持續保持著良好的發展勢頭。

  • A bit of the leverage, however, that deleverage is really talking about fully protecting our balance sheet.

    然而,去槓桿實際上是為了全面保護我們的資產負債表。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So you really what you're saying is, you're under earning on your assets in '25.

    所以你實際上想說的是,你在 25 年的資產收益低於預期。

  • And then you had a question on guidance, the low end of guidance and with Mattress Firm in the pot.

    然後你對指導、指導的低端以及 Mattress Firm 的情況提出了問題。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So when I think about the $2.60 to $2.80, is a long year.

    所以當我想到從 2.60 美元到 2.80 美元,那是漫長的一年。

  • We talked about the category.

    我們討論了類別。

  • When I think about it's been a past two weeks, I think since the acquisition, we remain getting our head around us.

    當我回想起過去的兩週時,我想自從收購以來,我們仍然在思考我們的事情。

  • So I think specifically the question is what would you have to believe, as it relates to hitting that low end of guidance.

    因此,我認為具體問題是你必須相信什麼,因為它與達到指導的低端有關。

  • I think we feel good about the industry.

    我認為我們對這個行業感覺良好。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • (multiple speakers) I would say the low end of the guidance is protecting us a little bit that if 2025.

    (多位講者)我想說,該指導方針的低端對我們有一定的保護作用,即到 2025 年。

  • The industry is down, as opposed to bouncing around the bottom might be the, I think that high level to say.

    我認為,行業處於低迷狀態,而不是在底部反彈,這可能是高水準的說法。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • The other interesting things here is, it's been a couple of years in the making and we're excited about the, as Scott said, the Mattress Firm coming into the family.

    另一件有趣的事情是,它已經籌備了好幾年,正如斯科特所說,我們很高興床墊公司加入了我們的大家庭。

  • There are some open items we still got to work through so the vestiture's are happening.

    我們仍有一些未完成的項目需要處理,因此服裝事宜正在進行中。

  • And the expectation is that by May 1st is that the vestiture's both on the Mattress Firm side as well as the sleep op footer side is that those will be transferred or those will be part of the mattress warehouse family.

    預計到 5 月 1 日,Mattress Firm 和 Sleep op Footer 兩家公司的資產都將轉移或成為 Mattress Warehouse 家族的一部分。

  • You put all that together, as Scott mentioned as well is that President's Day is less than stellar, is that we expect that the accretion or the acquisition will start to be accretive in the second quarter and for obviously the balance of the year and beyond.

    你把所有這些放在一起,正如斯科特提到的那樣,總統日並不那麼精彩,我們預計增值或收購將在第二季度開始增值,並且顯然會在今年餘下時間及以後持續增值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Keith, Piper Sandler.

    彼得·基思,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Peter Keith - Analyst

    Peter Keith - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks.

    嘿,謝謝。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Nice finish to the year.

    今年畫上了一個圓滿的句點。

  • Congrats on the acquisition.

    恭喜收購。

  • If we just think about that EPS range for the full year of $2.60 to $2.80, is there a way you could break out how you're contemplating the EPS accretion from that mattress from acquisition?

    如果我們只考慮全年每股收益範圍在 2.60 美元到 2.80 美元之間,您是否可以闡明您如何考慮收購該床墊後每股收益的成長?

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • So, just leveraging off the last question that came at us is, the expectation is that the acquisition would start to be accreted, beginning in the second quarter and ramping throughout the year.

    因此,根據我們提出的最後一個問題,我們預計收購將從第二季開始累積,並在全年逐漸增加。

  • A couple of items that are happening is, as I mentioned, is the dive through the stores, so that's a body of work as well as it's just a process you got people involved so it's a process that we have to work through.

    正如我所提到的那樣,正在發生的幾件事是深入商店,因此,這也是一項工作,因為它只是一個讓人們參與的過程,所以這是我們必須完成的過程。

  • And you think about looking forward to continued relationship with Mattress Warehouse.

    並且您期待與 Mattress Warehouse 繼續保持合作關係。

  • So when I think about the accretion starting in the second quarter and then ramping as you go into the third and fourth.

    因此,我認為成長是從第二季開始的,然後隨著進入第三季和第四季而加速。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lasser, UBS.

    瑞銀的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • This is Dan Silversteinr for Michael.

    我是麥可的丹‧西爾弗斯坦 (Dan Silversteinr)。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thanks so much for taking our question.

    非常感謝您回答我們的問題。

  • Our question is on the potential for synergies beyond the $100 million that you've identified, specifically around advertising.

    我們的問題是,除了您所提到的 1 億美元以外,具體在廣告領域還有哪些綜效的潛力。

  • Do you think you could see some benefit from consolidating your buying power, or will you lean in further and explore some new opportunities?

    您是否認為鞏固您的購買力能為您帶來一些好處,還是您會進一步探索一些新的機會?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • On synergies, it's just everybody's ground, I mean the $100 million are the cost synergies.

    就協同效應而言,這只是每個人的立場,我的意思是 1 億美元是成本協同效應。

  • We haven't ever budgeted any revenue synergies that would be in addition to the extent of revenue synergies and then specifically on your question, you're drilling down on advertising.

    我們從未預算過任何除了收入協同效應之外的收入協同效應,具體到您的問題,您正在深入研究廣告。

  • There's no question that advertising is a is a big bucket and a big opportunity.

    毫無疑問,廣告是一個巨大的機會。

  • I think, on a consolidated basis Somnigroup will be the largest bedding advertiser in the United States by a factor of two.

    我認為,以合併後的數據計算,Somnigroup 將以兩倍的優勢成為美國最大的床上用品廣告商。

  • Okay, to be clear, so it's a big number, it's a strong competitive, we'll call it weapon or asset for us, and it is a focus point.

    好的,要清楚,這是一個很大的數字,具有很強的競爭力,我們稱之為我們的武器或資產,它是一個焦點。

  • I think the synergies and advertising come in in two ways.

    我認為協同效應和廣告以兩種方式發揮作用。

  • Yeah, buying power, and we'll call that kind of a dollar synergy, just a traditional volume versus price.

    是的,購買力,我們稱之為美元綜效,只是傳統的數量與價格的關係。

  • But I think the big unlock is the quality of advertising and to an extent the coordination of the advertising so that one plus one equals more than two, when you spend it.

    但我認為最大的問題在於廣告的質量,以及某種程度上的廣告協調,這樣當你花錢的時候,一加一就等於二。

  • And I think both teams will work collaboratively together.

    我認為兩個團隊將會共同合作。

  • To get that efficiency and.

    為了獲得該效率和。

  • It will take a little while, when I say a little while I talk quarters, not years, but I think that there's a great opportunity, but primarily in the effectiveness of advertising more than just the absolute dollars, of course it'll flow through the income statement through improved sales both for us.

    這需要一段時間,當我說一段時間時,我指的是幾個季度,而不是幾年,但我認為這是一個很好的機會,但主要是在廣告的有效性方面,而不僅僅是絕對的美元,當然它會通過提高我們的銷售額而流入損益表。

  • And I believe the industry.

    我相信這個行業。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Hughes, Truist Securities.

    基斯·休斯(Keith Hughes),Truist Securities。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Keith are you here?

    基思,你在這裡嗎?

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Always got a mute button.

    總是有一個靜音按鈕。

  • Can you hear me now?

    現在你能聽到我的聲音嗎?

  • Keith Hughes - Analyst

    Keith Hughes - Analyst

  • Yeah I can hear you now.

    是的,我現在可以聽到你的聲音了。

  • Sorry about that.

    很抱歉。

  • So building on the last question, I know you haven't been able to, as you said, talk really talk to mattress so much during the trial.

    因此,基於最後一個問題,我知道正如您所說,您在審判期間無法與床墊進行太多交談。

  • At what point do you think you will have a better view of what other things you could do together is that something at the beginning of next year?

    您認為什麼時候你們會對你們可以一起做的其他事情有更好的看法,那是明年年初的事情嗎?

  • How long do you think it will take?

    您認為這需要多長時間?

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Oh, it's not going to take that long, and to be just get everybody grounded, during the trial, basically the teams were not talking.

    哦,這不會花那麼長時間,為了讓每個人都腳踏實地,在試驗期間,基本上各個團隊都沒有說話。

  • And so everything having to do with synergies got shut down seven months ago.

    因此,與協同效應相關的一切工作在七個月前就被叫停了。

  • Yes, so we got a little bit of a start and then when we went to litigation, we'll call it walls were put up and these would be hard walls and so we're just getting restarted.

    是的,所以我們有了一個小小的開始,然後當我們進入訴訟程序時,我們會稱之為築起牆,這些是硬牆,所以我們才剛重新開始。

  • There are groups that are meeting starting next week to get to get re-engaged.

    一些小組將於下週開始舉行會議,以重新參與。

  • And I think, we'll know a lot more by the end of the second quarter, and by the end of the third quarter, I think we'll know a lot longer, okay.

    我認為,到第二季末我們會知道更多信息,到第三季末,我想我們會知道更多信息,好的。

  • So no, I don't think it's going to take very long.

    所以不,我認為這不會花很長時間。

  • But as you can see in Bhaskar's prepared remarks, we're not, budgeting an aggressive amount of realizing synergies in the first year, letting the teams get together, make sure that we have buy-in from both sides.

    但是正如你在巴斯卡的準備好的發言中所看到的,我們並沒有在第一年就投入大量的預算來實現協同效應,讓團隊聚在一起,確保雙方都得到認同。

  • Any time you're doing synergies, this affects people.

    每當你進行協同效應時,這都會對人們產生影響。

  • And that means when I say affects people that don't mean their jobs are going away.

    這意味著,當我說影響人們時,並不代表他們的工作會消失。

  • I mean they have to change what they're doing or the way they're doing it, by the way.

    順便說一句,我的意思是他們必須改變他們正在做的事情或做事的方式。

  • But I think we'll get some of that implemented this year.

    但我認為我們今年會實施其中的一些計劃。

  • We'll get full benefits in 2026, and I think we'll have a robust funnel, of activity for several years from a synergy standpoint.

    我們將在 2026 年獲得全部利益,而且我認為,從協同效應的角度來看,我們將擁有一個強勁的活動管道,持續數年。

  • So I think we got a pretty good idea, what we want to look at, but we need to process it, through both organizations and get buy in.

    所以我認為我們對我們想要研究的內容有了一個很好的想法,但我們需要透過兩個組織來處理它並獲得認可。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Basham, Wedbush Securities.

    韋德布希證券公司的塞思·巴沙姆(Seth Basham)。

  • Seth Basham - Analyst

    Seth Basham - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot.

    多謝。

  • Good morning and congratulations.

    早上好,恭喜你。

  • Just on the long term guide, Scott, in terms of 20% EPS growth, maybe you could break that down for us, and tell us how much you expect from deleveraging.

    史考特,僅就長期指南而言,就 20% 的每股盈餘成長而言,也許您可以以為我們分解一下,並告訴我們您對去槓桿的預期是多少。

  • In other words, how much growth do you expect over the time period in EBITDA versus EPS?

    換句話說,您預期 EBITDA 與 EPS 在這段時間內會成長多少?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay, I'll let Bhaskar give you, the details.

    好的,我會讓巴斯卡 (Bhaskar) 向您提供詳細資訊。

  • If I remember that particular calculation doesn't have any stock fly back in it.

    如果我沒記錯的話,那個特定的計算中沒有任何股票回流。

  • I think we just threw the cash and the leveraging just to make the model call simple.

    我認為我們只是投入現金和槓桿來使模型呼叫變得簡單。

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • But on the EBITDA growth, do you have that number on the top of your head or would it be similar.

    但是就 EBITDA 成長而言,您是否已經記住這個數字了,或者是否差不多。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • (multiple speakers) What does happen is as Scott said from a capital allocation standpoint we don't have any buyback in it, top line or EPS growing at that 20%.

    (多位發言者)正如史考特所說,從資本配置的角度來看,我們沒有任何回購,營業額或每股盈餘成長率達到 20%。

  • However, we will be generating cash flow in that period and what we've assumed is that we feel that we will, pay down debt.

    然而,我們將在那段時期產生現金流,並且我們假設我們能夠償還債務。

  • However, the vast majority of the growth is coming from EBITDA.

    然而,絕大部分的成長來自於EBITDA。

  • Yeah, you got to have the EBITDA growth double digit.

    是的,你的 EBITDA 必須達到兩位數的成長。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • But there's still coming from the leveraging, nothing coming from stock buyback or future creative acquisitions.

    但它仍然來自於槓桿作用,而不是來自股票回購或未來的創意收購。

  • So I think it's a relatively conservative computation.

    所以我認為這是一個相對保守的計算。

  • But it is fair we did benefit for cash flow and reduced debt.

    但公平地說,我們確實從現金流和減少債務中受益。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • That's right.

    這是正確的。

  • So that's again, vast majority coming from EBITDA growth.

    因此,絕大多數來自 EBITDA 成長。

  • With the delta being just debt paid down, no share buyback.

    由於差額只是償還債務,並沒有回購股票。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bradley Thomas, Capital Market.

    布拉德利·托馬斯,資本市場。

  • Bradley Thomas - Analyst

    Bradley Thomas - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Congrats again on closing the deal here.

    再次恭喜您完成這筆交易。

  • My question was just, Scott, if you could talk a little bit about the recent trends that you've been seeing at Mattress Firm, and if you could talk a little bit how you're thinking about same store sales for the business in 2025 and then maybe lastly if you could just address the leadership transition underway and thanks.

    我的問題是,史考特,你能否談談你在 Mattress Firm 看到的近期趨勢,你能否談談你對 2025 年同店銷售額的看法,最後,你能否談談正在進行的領導層過渡,謝謝。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Sure, let me take a crack at some of those.

    當然,讓我嘗試一下其中的一些。

  • First of all, on trends, which again I think it's been fairly well published, we've got a, we'll call it a benefit in the fourth quarter with the peaceful transition of government in the US which may not have been expected.

    首先,關於趨勢,我認為這已經得到了相當充分的公佈,我們稱之為第四季度的收益,因為美國政府實現了和平過渡,這可能是我們始料未及的。

  • And we'll call it the Trump bump, and I think he saw that in various places, and that went through certainly December, went through January, and then I'm going to call it the activities in Washington, which have created some uncertainty in the US and maybe the world, began to kind of felt like it probably hit the market like right at February 1, okay.

    我們稱之為“川普衝擊”,我認為他在不同的地方看到了這一點,這種情況肯定持續到了 12 月,持續到了 1 月,然後我稱之為華盛頓的活動,這給美國乃至世界帶來了一些不確定性,開始感覺它可能在 2 月 1 日襲擊了市場,好吧。

  • And President's Day in the US was less robust or muted compared to expectations.

    而美國總統紀念日的氣氛則不如預期那麼熱鬧或平淡。

  • No question some of that is weather, but weather does not explain what I would call the muted impact for President's Day overall.

    毫無疑問,其中有一部分原因是天氣,但是天氣並不能解釋我所說的總統日整體影響不大的原因。

  • So, again, not too troublesome.

    所以,再說一次,不會太麻煩。

  • Kind of what we've been seeing as we get these starts where there's clear solid growth for a period of time.

    正如我們所看到的,這些業務在起步階段一段時間內都呈現出明顯的穩定成長。

  • Year over year and then you hit a period where it's soft and it's negative and so we that's kind of what I call the current trends.

    一年又一年,然後你會進入一個疲軟和消極的時期,這就是我所說的當前趨勢。

  • On the same source sales growth, on the same source sales growth at Mattress Firm.

    關於同一來源的銷售額成長,關於 Mattress Firm 的同一來源的銷售額成長。

  • Generally the history of Mattress Firm is share gain, we'll call it minor share gain, but share gain, and so they're same store sales growth is going to be dependent, somewhat on the market.

    一般來說,Mattress Firm 的歷史是份額增長,我們稱之為小幅份額增長,但份額增長,因此他們的同店銷售額增長將在一定程度上取決於市場。

  • And then we have not gotten into their real estate strategy in detail and store expansion and all of that and some of that may or may not have an impact on how we think about it.

    然後,我們還沒有詳細了解他們的房地產策略和商店擴張等等,其中一些可能會或可能不會對我們的看法產生影響。

  • So it's a little early, to say.

    所以現在說還有些早。

  • But most of their most of their same store sales will be dependent on market.

    但他們的同店銷售額大部分仍取決於市場。

  • Then I think the third part of your question was management change.

    那我認為你問題的第三部分就是管理變革。

  • We recently made a change in the leadership at Mattress Firm.

    我們最近對 Mattress Firm 的領導層進行了變動。

  • We'll continue to work with the team at Mattress Firm and make sure that we've got the right team, people in the right positions with the right authority, for success in the future, and that's my day job right now and we'll have that knocked out.

    我們將繼續與 Mattress Firm 的團隊合作,確保我們擁有合適的團隊、擁有合適權限的人員,以取得未來的成功,這就是我現在的日常工作,我們會解決這個問題。

  • I mean, within a quarter, I think we'll be able to give you some more information in that area.

    我的意思是,在一個季度內,我認為我們將能夠為您提供有關該領域的更多資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Matuszewski, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞的喬納森‧馬圖舍夫斯基 (Jonathan Matuszewski)。

  • Jonathan Matuszewski - Analyst

    Jonathan Matuszewski - Analyst

  • Great, good morning, and thanks for taking my question.

    非常好,早安,感謝您回答我的問題。

  • It was a follow up on synergies, recognizing kind of those hard walls are just coming down now, but just curious about kind of the cadence of that realization, obviously $10 million in the second half, that'll ramp in '26 and '27.

    這是對協同效應的後續行動,認識到那些硬牆現在正在倒塌,但只是好奇這種實現的節奏,顯然下半年是 1000 萬美元,這將在 26 年和 27 年增加。

  • But just try understand how the buckets will evolve over time in terms of, what that $10 million is initially coming from, whether it's logistics or manufacturing efficiencies or life cycle management, et cetera.

    但試著去理解這些資金桶會隨著時間的推移如何演變,例如這 1000 萬美元最初來自哪裡,是物流、製造效率還是生命週期管理等等。

  • And kind of how those buckets evolve as those synergies ramp in '26 and '27.

    隨著 26 年和 27 年協同效應的增強,這些桶子將如何演變。

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Let me talk about the process and then you kind of answer his question.

    讓我講一下這個過程,然後你再回答他的問題。

  • Let me make sure that people understand the process.

    讓我確保人們理解這個過程。

  • The process is each leader of each of the each of the companies will get together and form a committee and in their area of responsibility, they will come up with proposed synergies and then they will present them to top management to for us to kind of pick which ones we want to go after.

    這個過程是,每個公司的每位領導人都會聚在一起,組成一個委員會,在各自的職責範圍內,提出擬議的協同效應,然後將其提交給高層管理人員,以便我們選擇我們想要追求的。

  • And so like operations and logistics, actually they're meeting next week.

    至於營運和物流方面,他們實際上將於下週開會。

  • And actually they probably met a little bit this week, with the big groups, next week.

    實際上他們可能本週會和一些大團體舉行一些會議,下週就會。

  • Those two leaders will work their group, merchandizing will be working.

    這兩位領導者將領導他們的團隊,進行商品銷售工作。

  • And then of course accounting we'll call back office stuff.

    然後當然,我們會把會計工作回撥給辦公室。

  • I suspect most of the really quick hits of back office kind of stuff they're easier to consolidate.

    我認為大多數後台辦公室的快速操作更容易被整合。

  • But once you give them some perspective.

    但一旦你給他們一些觀點。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • So just to put some color on the $10 million again you got it right back half primarily loaded and where I think of that coming from is let's call it sourcing initiatives principally in those corporate type of functions where we get the power of scale.

    因此,只是為了再次說明這 1000 萬美元的含義,您得到的是其中一半主要已裝載的資金,而我認為這一資金的來源是,我們稱之為採購計劃,主要是在那些我們可以獲得規模力量的公司類型的職能中。

  • So think about it that way.

    所以就這樣想吧。

  • Also, I would imagine that from there's going to be a bit of manufacturing efficiencies as well now that we can being observant from a firewall standpoint, however, we can more easily work with each other.

    此外,我可以想像,既然我們可以從防火牆的角度觀察,那麼製造效率也會提高,然而,我們可以更輕鬆地相互合作。

  • I imagine that there are some opportunities that lie in that area in 2025.

    我想像 2025 年該地區將存在一些機會。

  • As I think about the cadence, let's call it a slow build.

    當我思考節奏時,我們稱之為緩慢建構。

  • Let's say again, big round numbers.

    我們再說一遍,大整數。

  • We got a $10 million, let's say it doubles a little bit more than doubles thereafter, and then filling the gap in that terminal year of [2028] of the third year.

    我們得到了 1000 萬美元,假設此後它再增加一倍以上,然後在第三年 [2028] 的最後一年填補空白。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • But I mean, but to get $10 million in your numbers this year with already, going to be in the second quarter by the time you're doing an implementation, what you're actually getting done is much bigger than $10 million, and you'll get the wraparound effect in '26, even.

    但我的意思是,如果今年你的數字已經達到 1000 萬美元,到第二季度你實施的時候,你實際完成的工作遠遠大於 1000 萬美元,你甚至會在 26 年獲得環繞效應。

  • Just for the start of the year.

    剛好是年初。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And plus a little bit more, yeah.

    是的,還有一點點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laura Champine, Loop Capital.

    勞拉‧尚皮恩 (Laura Champine),Loop Capital。

  • Laura Champine - Analyst

    Laura Champine - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question and sorry if it's duplicative.

    感謝您回答我的問題,如有重複,請諒解。

  • I'm juggling calls this morning, but once you digest Mattress Firm, what's your outlook for retail location growth?

    我今天早上一直在接聽電話,但一旦你消化了 Mattress Firm,你對零售店成長的前景如何?

  • Call it '26 and beyond in across your platforms US and UK.

    在美國和英國的平台上稱之為‘26’及以後。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, great question.

    是的,很好的問題。

  • Let me do dreams first of all because I'm very familiar with home for a while.

    先讓我做夢吧,因為我對家裡一段時間很熟悉了。

  • They still have opportunities in the UK for store expansion, and that team has a long term plan, for what would I guess I'd call it, single digit percentage growth in stores.

    他們在英國仍然有擴張門市的機會,而且該團隊有一個長期計劃,我猜我會稱之為門市個位數的百分比增長。

  • Something like that so.

    類似這樣的事。

  • So they still got that opportunity.

    所以他們仍然有這個機會。

  • In the Mattress Firm real estate, we've not gotten into the details of their stores.

    在 Mattress Firm 房地產中,我們還沒有了解其商店的詳細資訊。

  • They have a very sophisticated department, they just worked through their real estate, over a number of years that we've got confidence in.

    他們有一個非常先進的部門,多年來他們一直致力於房地產工作,我們對他們充滿信心。

  • But we haven't been fully through that and we have not seen any store level data.

    但我們還沒有完全經歷過這些,也沒有看到任何商店等級的數據。

  • We'll start that next week and so I don't really have a perspective, at this point.

    我們將於下週開始,因此目前我還沒有具體的計劃。

  • So you know I'm going to say, let's just call it store count flat today would be kind of my guess.

    所以你知道我要說的是,我們就把今天的商店數量稱為持平,這只是我的猜測。

  • Again, not fully a knowledgeable of the detail, but within that quite a bit of rotation, from some markets that are that are over concentrated and then new markets or new areas where there are growth opportunities, but we'll have more information on that in detail throughout the year as we get we'll call it fully informed on their real estate strategy.

    再次重申,我們對細節並不完全了解,但在相當多的輪換中,從一些過度集中的市場,到新市場或有成長機會的新領域,但我們將全年獲得更多有關這方面的詳細資料,我們將稱之為對他們的房地產戰略的充分了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Phillip Blee, William Blair.

    菲利普·布利,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Phillip Blee - Analyst

    Phillip Blee - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Appreciate your time.

    感謝您的時間。

  • Can you talk a bit more about the upcoming Sealy launch?

    您能再多談談即將推出的 Sealy 產品嗎?

  • How do you think about that brand's growth potential this year compared to Tempur Sealy over the past few years during their product launches, and what kind of contribution that can have this year?

    與過去幾年 Tempur Sealy 推出的產品相比,您認為品牌今年的成長潛力如何,今年能做出什麼樣的貢獻?

  • And then Bhaskar on the margins side, I know that there's a lot going on with gross margin this year, but how should we think about any headwinds related to, brand mix going forward?

    然後 Bhaskar 談到利潤率,我知道今年的毛利率有很多變化,但我們應該如何看待未來與品牌組合相關的任何不利因素?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Yeah, as Sealy is the largest brand in the US and this largest betting lodge in the US, and Sealy has been challenged, in 2025, as the product, we left it in the marketplace.

    是的,Sealy 是美國最大的品牌,也是美國最大的博彩公司,Sealy 面臨挑戰,在 2025 年,我們將其作為產品留在了市場上。

  • It was its last year before end of life, and so this is a big refresh.

    這是它生命週期結束前的最後一年,因此這是一個很大的更新。

  • And I would expect the growth potential for Sealy, in 2025 to probably exceed, Stearns and Foster and Tempur.

    我預計,到 2025 年,Sealy 的成長潛力可能會超過 Stearns、Foster 和 Tempur。

  • I'm looking at Bhaskar,

    我正在看著巴斯卡,

  • (multiple speakers)

    (多位發言者)

  • But I think that would be our expectation.

    但我認為這是我們的期望。

  • Because of the freshness of the product, the innovation that's in it and the excitement that we feel through the retailers and where it's been placed, it's performance.

    由於產品的新鮮度、其中的創新性以及我們透過零售商和產品陳列地點感受到的興奮感,它的性能。

  • But I think the other thing that's going to impact that is, I think you know this is that Sealy is generally lower ASP than Tempur Stearns and Foster.

    但我認為另一件會影響這一點的事情是,我想你知道 Sealy 的平均售價通常低於 Tempur Stearns 和 Foster。

  • And over the last few years, the lower end customer has been more challenged.

    過去幾年中,低端客戶面臨的挑戰更大。

  • So, it will be impacted some by that, but, I think even with that I would expect Sealy growth to be more than Tempur Stearns and Foster this year.

    因此,它將受到一定影響,但我認為,即使如此,我預計今年 Sealy 的成長仍將超過 Tempur Stearns 和 Foster。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • When I think about gross margins and just some drivers, let's talk about temper for a moment for 2025 on a like for like basis.

    當我考慮毛利率和一些驅動因素時,讓我們在同類基礎上討論一下 2025 年的脾氣。

  • I would think productivity again continues to drive.

    我認為生產力將再次繼續提高。

  • I would expect again a lock for basis temper to grow about 100 basis points, maybe a little bit above.

    我預計基差鎖定將再次成長約 100 個基點,或許略高一些。

  • The primary item of that is going to be the productivity, which will be offset by some commodities sitting here today, it looks like we're going to have a bit of commodities that when, however, you put those two together, it's still going to be favorable for us.

    其中最主要的是生產力,而生產力將被今天的一些商品所抵消,看起來我們將擁有一些商品,但是,當你將這兩者結合起來時,它仍然對我們有利。

  • The other item that we call that was FX.

    我們稱之為的另一個項目是 FX。

  • So within going through gross margin line is that there are some countries geos where we buy in US dollars.

    因此,在毛利率線內,有些國家的地理區域我們用美元購買。

  • The US dollar is strong relative to those currency, so causing us an FX headwind of about $15 million.

    美元相對於這些貨幣走強,因此為我們帶來約 1500 萬美元的外匯逆風。

  • And then finally I would say a couple of items, four models will be a headwind for us in the first half.

    最後,我想說幾件事,四種車型將會在上半年為我們帶來阻力。

  • And I'll close it down with the mix sitting here today is that we've assume the industry, the category is going to be kind of stable, which would imply a little bit down, a little bit up in the back half.

    今天我要結束討論的是,我們假設這個行業、這個類別將會比較穩定,這意味著下半年會稍微下降,稍微上升。

  • So we're not assuming that that low end consumer comes back, which would be great for EBITDA, however diluted to rate.

    因此,我們並不假設低端消費者會回歸,這對 EBITDA 來說是個好消息,儘管這會對利率產生一定的影響。

  • So at this point we're not considering any of that, but the one thing to be mindful of is that mix will be favorable for a couple of reasons.

    因此,目前我們還沒有考慮任何這些,但要注意的一件事是,由於幾個原因,混合將是有利的。

  • One, the foreclosed business that we talked about foreclosed business was associated with some of our OEMs as well as the big box.

    首先,我們談到的止贖業務與我們的一些 OEM 以及大型企業有關。

  • And then the other item that will be that will help from a favorability standpoint is the international sitting here today is expected to grow a bit faster, which will be favorable as well.

    然後,從有利角度來看,另一個有幫助的因素是,今天這裡的國際會議預計會成長得更快一些,這也將是有利的。

  • That's all in a Tempur Sealy like for like, which should drive at least a 100 basis point of growth.

    這一切都與 Tempur Sealy 類似,這應該會推動至少 100 個基點的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • William Rutter, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的威廉·拉特(William Rutter)。

  • William Rutter - Analyst

    William Rutter - Analyst

  • Hi, I just have one.

    你好,我只有一個。

  • I was wondering if you'd given any thought to the new potential reciprocal tariffs that, may be put into place, and if you've done any work around what that, could mean if the, policies that were announced last Thursday, so February 13, were put in place in terms of margin headway.

    我想知道您是否考慮過可能實施的新的潛在互惠關稅,以及您是否研究過如果上週四(2 月 13 日)宣布的政策在利潤率方面實施,這將意味著什麼。

  • That's it.

    就是這樣。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Bhaskar Rao - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • When I think about tariffs, they are moving around a lot.

    當我想到關稅時,它們正在發生很大的變化。

  • You're right.

    你說得對。

  • I mean whether it's the reciprocal tariffs or the Canada Mexico tariffs, the ones that we're thinking about or they're out there in China, the aluminum steel.

    我的意思是,無論是互惠關稅還是加拿大墨西哥關稅,我們正在考慮的還是中國存在的鋁鋼關稅。

  • The way that we're thinking about it is what, today, it feels like, maybe one of those has stuck around China, relatively de minimis as it relates to how we're thinking about it currently because it's not only the impact of the tariff.

    我們今天思考這個問題的方式是,也許其中一個影響一直圍繞著中國,與我們目前思考這個問題的方式相比,它的影響相對較小,因為它不僅僅是關稅的影響。

  • We do have good relationship with our suppliers and we do have some lag in between when that tariff is enacted and when it goes forward or when it gets when we see it in our P&L and it gives us an opportunity to think about from a pricing standpoint of there.

    我們與供應商的關係確實很好,在關稅實施和生效之間,或者在損益表中看到關稅之間,確實存在一些滯後,這讓我們有機會從定價的角度進行思考。

  • So that's a lot of words to say that things are moving around and we do have what we have visibility on and what has stuck, we have that we have that forecast as it relates to the reciprocal tariffs is the one thing I would that that often comes to mind is, our adjustable based business I believe one of those countries that that may be impacted by that is Vietnam.

    所以,有很多話要說,事情正在發生變化,我們確實對什麼有可見性,對什麼有把握,我們對與互惠關稅有關的預測是我經常想到的一件事,那就是我們的可調整業務,我認為可能受影響的國家之一是越南。

  • So again we have flexibility, we have the opportunity to move things around, but what we see in front of us is, a lot of uncertainty as it relates to that and there's also the upside as well.

    因此,我們再次擁有靈活性,我們有機會改變事態,但我們面臨的是,與此相關的許多不確定性,但也有好的一面。

  • So when tariffs, they go both ways so as those tariffs and those finished goods are coming into the US, so it's an opportunity for us as well.

    因此,當關稅和成品進入美國時,它們是雙向的,所以這對我們來說也是一個機會。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I mean.

    是的,我的意思。

  • Obviously it's complicated right now, but yeah, we're going to benefit from any tariffs that are put on imports, so that's kind of we call that a good guy.

    顯然現在情況很複雜,但是是的,我們將從對進口商品徵收的任何關稅中受益,所以我們稱之為好人。

  • In our terminology, then probably just tariffs in general, the ones that get our components and stuff from a competitive standpoint, it's actually an advantage to us because of our size and our volume, it's easier for us to deal with the suppliers.

    用我們的術語來說,那麼可能只是一般的關稅,從競爭的角度來看,這實際上對我們來說是一個優勢,因為我們的規模和數量,我們更容易與供應商打交道。

  • On that issue than the smaller people who don't have that bi.

    在這個問題上,比沒有這種雙性戀的人更小。

  • So as much as it's a kind of a we call it a pain from a competitive position standpoint, I think if it's actually it puts us in a better competitive position relatively speaking.

    因此,儘管從競爭地位的角度來看我們稱之為一種痛苦,但我認為如果它實際上使我們處於相對更好的競爭地位。

  • And then all of it is all before you do any mitigation and from an industry standpoint the industry has a History of if you have true cost increase in your components.

    然後,所有這些都是在你採取任何緩解措施之前,從行業的角度來看,如果你的組件成本確實增加了,那麼該行業就會有一個歷史。

  • The industry passes that on, to the consumer if that's what ends up happening.

    如果最終發生這種情況,產業就會將這項責任轉嫁給消費者。

  • And then quite frankly, all our suppliers are working through this and, working on where to move production and when we're talking about components and stuff, most of what you're talking about, that production can be moved, within a reasonable period of time.

    坦白說,我們所有的供應商都在努力解決這個問題,研究將生產轉移到哪裡,當我們談論零件和其他東西時,你所談論的大部分生產都可以在合理的時間內轉移。

  • It's not like the auto industry we can't move it very quickly.

    這與汽車產業不同,我們無法快速發展。

  • So all in all, the way I think about it with no guarantees because I don't think any of us know exactly where things are going to land is we may have a little impact for a quarter or two when depending on how the tariffs land, but within a few quarters I would expect the impact to be insignificant because the mitigating factors in our competitive position.

    總而言之,我認為沒有任何保證,因為我認為我們中的任何人都不知道事情將如何發展,我們可能會在一兩個季度內產生一點影響,這取決於關稅的實施情況,但在幾個季度內,我預計影響將是微不足道的,因為我們的競爭地位存在緩解因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time, I will now turn the call over to Scott Thompson for closing remarks.

    現在沒有其他問題了,我現在將電話轉給斯科特湯普森 (Scott Thompson) 作結束語。

  • Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Scott Thompson - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, operator.

    謝謝您,接線生。

  • To our 20,000 associates around the world, including our new 8,000 matches firm employees.

    對於我們遍布全球的 20,000 名同事,包括我們新加入的 8,000 名火柴公司員工來說,這是值得的。

  • Thank you for what you do every day.

    感謝您每天的所作所為。

  • To make Somnigroup successful.

    使 Somnigroup 取得成功。

  • To our retail partners.

    對於我們的零售合作夥伴。

  • Thank you for your outstanding representation of our brands.

    感謝您對我們品牌的出色展示。

  • And to our shareholders and lenders, thank you for your confidence Somnigroup's leadership team and its board of directors.

    並向我們的股東和債權人表示感謝,感謝你們對 Somnigroup 領導團隊及其董事會的信任。

  • This ends our call today operator.

    我們今天的通話到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。

  • We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。