托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Toll Brothers third-quarter 2015 earnings conference call.

(Operator Instructions)

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, Chief Executive Officer.

Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Denise.

Welcome and thank you for joining us.

I'm Douglas Yearley, CEO.

With me today are Bob Toll, Executive Chairman; Rick Hartman, President and COO; Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Joe Sicree, Chief Accounting Officer; Mike Snyder, Chief Planning Officer; Kira Sterling, Chief Marketing Officer; Don Salmon, President of TBI Mortgage Company; and Gregg Ziegler, SVP and Treasurer.

Before I begin, I ask you to read the statement on forward-looking information in today's release and on our website.

I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking statements based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results.

Those listening on the web can e-mail questions to Rtoll@tollbrothersinc.com.

We completed FY15's third quarter on July 31.

Third quarter net income was $66.7 million, or $0.36 per share diluted, compared to FY14 third-quarter earnings of $97.7 million, or $0.53 per share diluted.

FY15 pretax income was $107.5 million versus $151.3 million one year ago.

Revenues of $1.03 billion and homebuilding deliveries of 1,419 units declined 3% in dollars and 2% in units compared to FY14 third-quarter totals.

The average price of homes delivered was $724,000 compared to $732,000 in 2014's third quarter.

Net signed contracts of $1.23 billion and 1,479 units rose 30% in dollars and 12% in units compared to FY14's third quarter.

The average price of net signed contracts was $834,000 compared to $717,000 in 2014's third quarter.

This was the highest average price for any quarter in our history, driven by an increase in the number and average price of California contracts.

On a per-community basis, FY15's third quarter net signed contracts rose 5% to 5.5 units compared to 5.25 units in 2014's third quarter.

Backlog of $3.69 billion and 4,447 units rose 19% in dollars and 6% in units compared to FY14's third-quarter-end backlog.

This was the highest quarter-end backlog we have had in eight years dating back to the second quarter of 2007.

At third-quarter-end, the average price of homes in backlog was $829,000 compared to $737,000 at 2014's third-quarter end.

This was the first time ever that our quarter-end average price topped $800,000.

We ended the quarter with 267 selling communities compared to 256 one year ago.

Through the first four weeks of August, contracts in units were up 16% compared to the same period last year.

Here are some community highlights.

At Porter Ranch in LA County, we have taken 27 deposits in the past two months averaging approximately $900,000.

We continued to see strength in our active adult brand in the west with Regency at Damonte Ranch in Reno, Nevada where we've taken 28 deposits in the last two months.

We also continue to see strength with our East Coast active adult communities.

We recently opened Regency at White Oak Creek in Raleigh, North Carolina where we have taken 17 deposits since opening in mid-July, and in New Jersey at the Enclave at Shackamaxon, we sold out our first phase consisting of 14 lots in one afternoon at an average price in the upper $800,000.

In Seattle at our Woodhaven community, we have taken 20 deposits since opening in July, while raising prices $40,000.

Our rental apartment business continues to outperform our expectations.

We are currently leasing up three new communities totaling about 1,100 units, one in downtown Washington DC, one in suburban Philadelphia, and our newest offering, a 417-unit, 38-story tower in Jersey City, at faster paces and higher rents than we had originally projected.

We are currently in construction on four other rental communities, totaling over 1,400 units stretching from Massachusetts to Maryland, and have nearly 3,000 additional units in our pipeline.

We will expand this business nationally.

This housing recovery appears to be built on a very solid foundation.

We believe that the slow but steady acceleration we in the industry are experiencing bodes well for the long-term health of the housing market, based on increasing household formations, pent-up demand, and the current industry-wide production that is still well below historic norms.

With our great land positions, well-established brand, broad product and geographic diversification, and solid financial footing, we are very optimistic about the future.

With an increase in the average price of our homes in backlog, our growing and profitable presence in California, increased earnings projected from our city living division, and overall solid current demand in most of our markets, we believe we have significant room for growth and increased profitability in FY16 and beyond.

Now let me turn it over to Marty.

Thank you, Doug.

Our core Q3 gross margins exceeded our expectations, and we have revised our full-year margin expectations upward by 20 basis points.

Our Q3 unit delivery total was consistent with our expectations, but a slight difference in mix resulted in a lower average delivered price than anticipated.

Additionally, our unit deliveries and revenue dollars were slightly below the prior year's same quarter, reflecting the challenging sales environment in FY14.

Third quarter homebuilding gross margin before interest, writedowns, and a $4.9 million net reserve increase was 25.7% of revenue, compared to 26.1% in 2014's third quarter, which excludes a $7-million reserve reversal.

The decline from our third quarter a year ago was anticipated, as we have fewer deliveries this year from certain high-margin city living projects.

We recorded $18 million in impairments this quarter, including $11.9 million associated with two non-strategic communities we are considering opportunistically selling.

The proceeds from these potential sales and monetizing the related impairments for tax purposes would generate approximately $75 million in cash to be redeployed into our business in a more capital efficient manner.

Third-quarter SG&A was approximately $116.2 million.

This was higher than the $110 million in the third quarter of 2014.

As a percentage of homebuilding revenue, SG&A was 11.3% for Q3 of FY15, compared to 10.4% in Q3 of 2014.

The dollar increase compared to a year ago was in line with expectations and is associated with normal cost increases and an increase in backlogs, contracts, and joint ventures, as we incur overhead before we recognize revenues and income.

Our Q3 joint venture income was $6 million and our Q3 other income was $14.1 million.

We reiterate our full-year guidance of $75 million to $90 million of pretax income from the JV and other income lines combined.

This quarter, we reported a 37.9% effective tax rate.

Our tax rate guidance for the fourth quarter is approximately 31% and our full year is now estimated at around 32%.

Our fourth quarter is expected to benefit from some anticipated tax accrual reversals.

Our share count on a diluted basis averaged 185.1 million shares for the quarter.

We now expect to deliver between 5,350 and 5,650 homes, and update the estimate of our average delivered price per home to be between $745,000 and $760,000 for FY15.

The range for our year-end community count is narrowed to 270 to 285.

Our pre-interest, pre-impairment, pre-reserve gross margin for the fourth quarter is estimated to be 26.7%, and our full-year guidance is revised upward by 20 basis points to 26.2%.

SG&A as a percentage of revenue for the full year should be very consistent with 2014, which was approximately 11%.

We are encouraged by our new signed contracts and continue to expect margins to expand and net income to grow in FY16.

Now let me turn it over to Bob.

Thank you, Marty.

We are encouraged by the report last week of improvement in single-family housing starts to the best pace since 2007.

Although seasonally adjusted total starts rose to an annualized 1.2 million pace, that leaves lots of room before we are at historic norms dating back over 40 years of 1.5 million to 1.6 million starts.

Population continues to grow, if the supply of homes in the market remains well below historic norms, as does new home production.

An improving employment landscape, three consecutive quarters of accelerating household formations, pent-up demand, increasing rents, and still attractive affordability are supporting the for-sale housing market's steady recovery.

As the job picture continues to improve, greater demand should lead to rising home prices, which we believe should encourage more people to sell their existing homes and move up or add a second home.

Based on these and other factors, we believe the housing market remains on an upward trend and has considerable room to grow.

Now back to you, Doug.

Thank you, Bob.

Thank you, Marty.

Denise, let's open it up for questions.

Thank you, sir.

We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

(Operator Instructions)

Our first question will come from Stephen Kim of Barclays.

Thank you very much, guys.

Thank you for all of the information and the color, as usual.

I was curious if you could talk a little bit about your land spend and your intentions for land spend, either for the remainder of this year or even better, heading into next year, if you could quantify that for us.

Steve, it's Doug.

We spent $86 million this quarter on land.

The largest piece of that was $22 million on a great property in the West Village of Manhattan and the rest was spread around the country.

We continue to be opportunistic.

We don't allocate capital to divisions.

All land approval, as you know, occurs right in here and with us, and the deal flow right now is good.

We're being careful.

We're very sensitive to the markets where we think we have plenty of land and those markets maybe that aren't performing as well, and we weigh that every time a deal comes in.

But $86 million is a little bit light for us for a quarter, but that's not an indication of us backing off.

It's really just the timing of when deals close.

Because remember, when we actually close on a piece of land may be a very different time frame from when we tie it up, so I really wouldn't read much into that.

And I think, overall, that the deal flow has been about the same for the last year or two.

I think it's also worth noting, Doug that in the fourth quarter we closed on two sizeable parcels in California that are not in that $86 million figure.

That will be Q4.

Coming up.

Yes.

Correct.

But it's already closed and that was around $160 million, so--

In August.

Correct.

So $86 million for a quarter, $160 million for a month, it's pretty lumpy.

Exactly.

Okay that's great.

I don't know, I didn't think you had mentioned a development number.

Does that $86 million include development?

And if not, do you know what the development number was?

It does not include it and Gregg?

Yes, for Q3 of FY15 the development spend was $165 million.

Was $165 million?

Correct.

Okay, great.

That's great.

And then my next question relates to multi-fam.

So you talked a little bit about, in broad brush strokes, your plans for that.

I was wondering if you could maybe talk a little bit more about how you see your strategy evolving?

Do you anticipate, for example, any particular end game with these units?

Are you going to maintain all of them in portfolio?

Is there going to be any special change in strategy that you're starting to implement as a result of what you've learned so far?

If you could just provide a little more color around what you're doing on that side of the business?

Sure, so as I mentioned in my comments and in the release, we're thrilled with the business.

We have focused on Washington DC to Boston, and we're doing great.

We're now looking to expand it nationally.

We are a minority partner in most of the new deals; that would be a 25% equity investor with 75% coming from our friends on Wall Street.

Some of the early deals were straight 50%, 50%.

None of the deals are on our balance sheet.

Everything is being done in venture, and that will continue.

I think we're comfortable with the 25%, 75% ratio.

With that, we obviously get management fees and development fees and whatever other fees we deem appropriate.

Some of this we will hold long term, and some of it we will sell, and that is based upon the performance of the asset, the location, and of course the appetite of our partner, because some partners are shorter term than others.

So you will see a blend of a hold on some and solid stabilization on others, but we are very excited to continue to grow the business on a national platform.

Great, appreciate that.

Thank you very much guys and best of luck.

Thank you, Stephen.

Our next question will come from Stephen East of Evercore ISI.

Thank you, good morning, guys.

Doug, on the order front, maybe we can talk a little bit.

You all talked about what was going on in active adult; it sounds like it's strong.

If you could also -- are the rates there running faster than your overall Company?

And then what you're seeing demand versus price in City Living, and in the south you actually had some come down.

Was interested in how much of that was Houston, if you will, versus maybe Florida.

Any color for August, if you have it, along the order front.

Sure, Stephen.

The active adult is doing very well.

I highlighted three communities in my comments, one out west and two back in the east.

We're very excited to expand active adult out west.

We're in Denver with it, we're in Reno with it, and we will be opening within the next year or so in Las Vegas, and you'll see more from us in west with active adult.

And that line for us is doing very well.

Traditional single family is also doing very well and City Living, this summer City Living was a little slower.

It's always slower in the summer.

The Hamptons had a great summer, and our buyers, for the most part, are there.

I don't think we're going to know a lot more until November, so we can get through with September and in October to see how the fall plays out in New York.

We're optimistic.

We're very well positioned.

We've also talked many times about our margins, so we have room if we need to throw a few bucks at some buildings.

We also have a lot of deliveries coming up, as we've talked about, so we're in the final stages of construction in a number of locations.

The south, Houston was slower, but Florida was also a bit slower, so I can't blame the numbers in the south only on Houston.

For us the Carolinas, which is Raleigh and Charlotte and then Florida and then Texas, I think we were disappointed throughout the South.

In Houston, we have three major master plans where all of the builders are buying all of the pods that we have offered to them.

In fact, they're anxiously looking for more sections, if we can get land development moving.

And we're doing okay, but it has certainly been a bit slower than prior quarters.

Okay, thank you.

And then on the gross margins, you all have been killing it in California.

And I'm guessing as you look into next year, you have City Living deliveries, but I assume also the California margins are accelerating.

Is there a way to put some color around how much those margins are moving?

And is that the biggest driver, is City Living, as you look into next year?

Marty, go ahead.

Stephen, I think your presumption is accurate in terms of specific color on next year margins.

We'll get into more detail on that three months from now, but certainly City Living and California margin expansion are the main drivers.

Okay, and do you mind giving us an idea of maybe where you started with California and where you are now at least, if you don't want to give absolute levels at least how much that's increased?

Yes, we have that.

We can certainly talk about it.

12-18 months.

Gregg, you gave me stats on Shapell when we opened Shapell and Shapell today.

Yes, maybe that's the best example, since it has such stark contrast.

So Stephen, we -- with our Shapell, when we got it in Q2 2014, it was very low as we worked through purchase accounting, et cetera, and we were posting 10% to 15% gross margins through that,.

But by the time we got to, call it Q4 of 2014, we had already posted up to 27% gross margin with Shapell.

And then through 2015, we were able to maintain those strong margins once -- as we continue to rebrand the product out there, et cetera.

So maybe that's the best example to give you how much movement we've seen, rather than going through our core California operations, which tend to be more stable through the years.

So there's a bit of noise in these two numbers here, Stephen, but margins from Shapell in 2014 were in the mid to upper teens and they're in the mid 20%s this year.

Perfect, all right thank you.

Our next question will come from Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Securities.

Thank you, good morning, everyone.

The first question I had was on the gross margins.

Obviously, solid story for you guys and able to raise it slightly for the full year in terms of the outlook for this year.

Obviously, you don't want to talk too much in terms of specificity or the degree of magnitude that you expect.

The improvement, we're still three months away, and obviously, there's some variables.

But I'm going to try anyway to get a little more detail out of you, and we'll see.

But I think there is, to a degree, a range of thought out there.

The bulls are thinking perhaps even as much as 200 or 300 basis points.

I think that more people are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 100.

I don't think anyone is, when you talk about improvement, no one is necessarily thinking about 20 or 30 BPs.

Is it any way possible to just give us a sense of between a 100 and a 300 type of range.

Is it somewhere in the middle?

Is it closer to the 100, or is it just that you prefer not to comment at this point?

I think we're going to go with the last option.

All right, fair enough.

It is something that people are wondering about, so I did want to put it out there.

The second question I had was regarding community count, and obviously the guidance at the high end of that range came in a little bit for the end of the year.

And just in terms of thinking about, obviously there are yourselves and other builders looking at there's certain delays, municipality-related, et cetera.

Is the right way to think about the -- let's say the taking out that upper end, is that more of would you expect some of those communities to hit?

Or let's say in the first half of 2016 and there might be a little bit of a catch-up effect, or this let's say whatever you were expecting to possibly get in at the end of this year, you have to push everything out and there wouldn't be like this spillover big catch up necessarily, but the growth would continue to be more at a linear rate.

I think that's fair.

The delayed openings, unfortunately is part of our business.

That last permit, which the guys assure us they will have next week and therefore we can open the week after.

Sadly, it seems to take a month or two and we just get pushed out.

There's other strategic decisions on occasion to not open out of a sales trailer but wait until a model home is opened and beautifully decorated and everything is perfect.

And on occasion, we strategically decide to, at a fairly late date, to push back, but these communities are coming.

They haven't been terminated or cancelled.

They're just being delayed, but the communities we expect for next year may also follow that same story line.

So I think a linear growth model is most appropriate.

Okay, appreciate that, Doug.

One last quick one, if I could.

Just going back to the apartment business for a moment, I was hoping you could give the aggregate amount of equity or investment that you have in this business across the different projects and what that might grow to over time.

And as you look at this maybe three, four years down the road, is this something that is even possible to be spun off or sold off in its entirety?

Or just given the nature of the different partner by partner type of a dynamic, it's going to more run-off and play out in a -- not in any one singular event, but it will just playoff over time.

Michael, right now we have around $140 million of Toll Brothers equity invested in these projects.

We've been on record that we're very comfortable in the $250 million to $300 million range.

And I think as we grow more and more confident in what we're seeing in the performance of these apartments, that number could grow even further.

In terms of a long-term strategy associated with the apartments, I think Doug mentioned earlier that some were going to hold and some we're going to sell.

And I think we're going to remain flexible and opportunistic in looking at a number of long-term strategies.

Okay, great.

Thank you guys.

You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Mike Dahl of Credit Suisse.

Hi thank you for taking my questions.

Wanted to talk about the order trends and try to get a sense, a better sense of the monthly cadence.

Because obviously, you talked a few months ago about May being flat, but you had a pretty rough first week, strong bounce back the final few weeks.

Still seems like you'd need year-over-year order growth in the 20% range in June and July, and wanted to get your sense of just on the ground, is there any increased consistency in trends that you're seeing monthly or per community, and then as it relates to August as well?

No, Mike I don't think there's anything unique.

There's no special trend going on week to week in August.

We did mention what happened at the beginning of the last quarter with the timing of Easter from the prior year and some carryover of contracts, which greatly impacted that first week.

We didn't have that phenomenon this year, and I think orders up 16% speaks for itself and there's not much that we or you can read into the individual weeks within the month.

As a follow-up though, if I recall correctly, August of last year was, it was a pretty weak month relative to where the quarter ultimately came out.

I think orders were down 7% for August, and then actually up 10% for the full quarter.

So tougher comps in September and October.

So just should we be thinking about that type of moderation from the 16% in August?

No.

Okay, second question just then specifically, obviously a lot of concerns, given some of the volatility in both currencies and foreign markets.

And so any comments that you can make around what you're seeing from your foreign buyer demographic on both coasts over the past month or two?

No, there really hasn't been much of a change.

In northern California, 10% of our buyers are foreign nationals.

I can't give you the break down as to what nationality, but 10%, and that's been a consistent number over the last couple of years.

Southern Cal, it's also about 10%; that is down a little bit from when it was around 15% or even up as high as 20% in 2014.

In New York City, we run about 13% foreign nationals, and that number again has been fairly consistent.

What's going on lately, it's too early to tell.

It's too early to read anything into it.

Over the last couple of weeks, we're obviously keeping a very close eye on it.

But most of our international buyers are Asian-American, been here for generations, not impacted by their home country economy.

And that's certainly what's driving the California market, Seattle, and many markets for us.

And that buyer is -- seems quite confident and ready and able to buy.

But we're obviously, as everyone is, keeping a very close eye on it.

But right now, it's just too early to tell you much more than that.

Okay, appreciate the color, thank you.

Our next question will come from Susan McClary of UBS.

Good morning.

Good morning.

In terms of your pricing out in California, it's been very impressive and continues this quarter.

Can you give us some idea of how you think about your ability to further raise prices as we go out and what you're hearing from your salespeople in terms of what's going on as it relates to that?

Right now, the markets out there continue to be very strong.

We continue to have terrific pricing power.

We manage pricing weekly.

We'll open a new phase, and there will be a line of people at the door when we open at 10 AM.

And we're able to raise price once again.

And in many of our locations in Orange County and up in the East Bay and South Bay of San Francisco, we're continuing to experience that type of overwhelming demand and we move the price.

The one great example we've given is Hidden Canyon in Irvine Ranch, Orange County, where we have two product lines that opened at about $2.3 million and $2.6 million, and they're now up $0.5 million each.

And we continue to have hundreds of people that wait for the next phase of a few lots to be offered, and in they come without pause.

So our strategy is very local; it's community [type] by community.

We put, we listen closely to what our sales teams say and what the weekly results show and we move price accordingly.

So right now, California continues to be very hot for us in our locations.

We're trying to be cautious, because we're always aware of running off the cliff.

So far, we don't see a cliff.

We just see nice sunny skies and level ground.

With a view of the ocean.

Yes.

And then as we think further out in this City Livings business and you look to potentially expand that beyond maybe the New York metro area, how do we think about the margin differential in that business and the variations that we could see over time?

We've always said that we underwrite to a minimum of a 10% higher gross margin for City Living, because it's riskier, it's more expensive, and it deserves that better margin.

So at a minimum, you should underwrite to mid 30%s gross margin versus our mid 20%s.

New York City over the last five years has performed significantly above that.

Because while we bought deals at a mid-30% margin, they ended because of the strength of that market, performing significantly better.

I'm not sure we can replicate that going forward.

We'll have to see how the New York market plays out, but we're very careful in what we buy.

In terms of expansion beyond New York we have struggled, and we are frustrated that we're not further along.

We have one for-sale condo building in Washington DC; Bethesda, Maryland actually, with a second one under contract.

We have looked for five years now in Boston unsuccessfully.

We have scoured Miami Beach.

We've had employees in San Francisco committed to find City Living buildings, and so far we have not succeeded.

We have a smaller operation in Philadelphia that we're looking to grow, but that is also -- we have to be very careful in Philadelphia because it's not New York and there are just less opportunities.

So most of the growth you see will be in New York City.

We continue to have great deal-flow in New York.

I mentioned closing this quarter in the West Village, what we think is probably the best market of Manhattan, and we're thrilled with our specific property.

And we have other deals we're looking at.

But to turn a 35% gross margin into the 50%, 55%, 60%s that we've been able to achieve over the last five years, I'd love to see that, but I'm not sure New York will double again in the next five years as it did in the prior five.

We'll have to see how it plays out.

Okay, thank you.

You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Alan Ratner of Zelman & Associates.

Hey guys.

Good morning.

Thank you for taking my question.

On the pricing front, the increase you've seen, as you highlighted the first time in Company history above $800,000 in backlog.

As you look across your portfolio and you look at the markets there, as you underwrite new deals and think about the buyer pool at that price point, and separating out the coasts from your other markets like Carolina and Florida and Texas, how deep do you see that buyer pool going at that $800,000 plus price point?

Is that a number you think you could grow the business at a 10% to 20% clip for multiple years and maintain that level of pricing?

Or are you going to need to mix in a bit lower in order to see volume growth as well?

Alan, we already do mix in lower.

That number is driven by primarily California, although there's other places certainly where we build $1 million-plus homes.

So absolutely, we can sustain and expand order growth at $800,000 with the new mix of Toll Brothers.

We're a new Company.

We have a significant presence for many years on the land we own in California, in Seattle, in City Living, in some very expensive markets of Florida, in the Virginia/ Washington DC suburbs, in New Jersey, et cetera, et cetera, and all of those markets --

Recently Dallas.

We have $1 million-plus offerings in Dallas.

But we also have $500,000, $400,000, $300,000 offerings in other places.

And the active adult, while luxury active adult tends to be lower priced because the homes are smaller.

But when I look at the land holdings, the location, the mix, where we're identifying new land opportunities, absolutely.

The new Toll Brothers can sustain and grow at that price point.

Alan, just to give you some break down of that, 17% of our homes delivered this year were greater than $1 million, 20% were between $750,000 and $1 million, and 63% of our homes were less than $750,000.

Got it, that's very helpful.

And just a follow-up on that, I don't know if Don is on the phone, but what type of trends are you seeing in terms of your buyer's qualification and affordability and the income ratios you might be able to provide?

And how that's been trending over the last year or so as the price points moved up, would be interesting.

Our buyers remain to be strong.

We have on the margin a few people that struggle to qualify, but overall, we're able to get the vast majority of our people into a mortgage if they want one.

We're not seeing any issue at all really on a macro sense with qualifying for loans.

I think it's interesting to note that the jumbos can be gotten in many instances for less than the performance.

Actually, today the jumbo rate is below the conforming rate, which is pretty astounding.

We're seeing very strong demand for jumbo.

We have -- we will this quarter, coming up fourth quarter, we will introduce at least three and we're hoping five new jumbo investors.

One will be significant for us.

We believe we're going to introduce for the first time in our history, direct sales to a major insurance company, which will be huge.

And that also, by the way, is going to open up financing for foreign nationals to a greater degree than we have today.

So I don't see any issues at the moment in terms of availability or liquidity in either the conforming or the jumbo market.

That's great to hear.

Thank you a lot and good luck.

Thank you.

The next question will come from Megan McGrath of MKM Partners.

Good morning.

Just wanted to follow-up first on your land sales, a two-part question.

One, could you let us know where those two non-strategic impaired locations were?

But more importantly, looking a little bit longer term, it feels as if this was a strategic decision in terms of trying to monetize these assets and get the tax break and the cash in, so should that be something that we expect to see more of going forward?

Megan, those communities are in the mid-Atlantic.

I don't think we want to get any more specific than that.

We've had them for a large number of years, and we just came to the conclusion that redeploying the cash into something on a current basis would be a more capital efficient decision than waiting for the markets to recover.

In terms of additional situations like this, I don't foresee any right now.

But we don't want to say never, so I don't anticipate anything right now.

Okay, thank you.

And then just a quick follow-up on City Living.

You're very good about giving your anticipated pipeline of deliveries.

Any significant changes there as of this quarter?

Gregg?

No real changes.

We have a couple of projects that we expect to begin their deliveries in Q4 of this year.

Those projects will continue to deliver throughout FY16.

And we still have the Philadelphia project that delivered this quarter, we have another Philadelphia project that's anticipated to start delivering in Q4 of 2015 as well.

And as you know, on our website under the Investor Relations section, we always keep our City Living pipeline current and future.

We'll have that updated later today for you, so that will give you all the detail that I'm not going into the detail right now on.

Great, thank you.

You're welcome.

The next question will come from Jade Rahmani of KBW.

Hi, this is actually Ryan Tomasello on for Jade.

Thank you for taking my question.

Again regarding City Living, I was wondering if you can provide some of your thoughts on the New York City luxury high rise market and recent commentary on from other players in that market on the projected increases in the new supply that is expected to come on over the next 18-36 months.

And has that changed any of your underwriting or pipeline expectations for that segment?

It hasn't changed our underwriting.

We're still very bullish on New York.

I mentioned that this summer has been slower.

Part of that was self-inflicted because we were very aggressive with pricing last year, and we are now a little bit more cautious in our pricing strategy.

But yes, there does appear to be more coming online over the next couple years.

We're obviously well aware of it and study it, and when we look at individual property in a given neighborhood, we focus on what else may had be coming online in that neighborhood over the next couple of years.

And so that all goes into the analysis, but we aren't overly concerned.

We just continue to be cautious, as we always have been, with how we buy land in New York.

In general, I would say the demand continues to seem to be growing greater than the supply.

We can't make any statements about that on a firm basis, it's just how things seem.

Okay, thank you.

And then just regarding the broader landmark, can you comment on the types of deals you're seeing currently and the level of competition on those deals?

Has the deal flow been concentrated in certain markets, and how have you been sourcing those deals?

No.

Deal flows everywhere.

Competition is the same.

Those with money, the big builders and the wealthy investors.

We, as I've said many times, we're opportunistic and we have land teams all over the country.

We have a different appetite in different markets based on our performance and the local economics of a market, but nothing has changed in terms of location of land, size of deals, or competition.

It continues to be a healthy land market.

It's a competitive market, and we are, we think very good at it and very selective and careful in our underwriting.

Great, thank you, guys.

Steve Sullivan from Horizon Financial Group over the internet asks: do we foresee any further consolidation within the public sector home builders?

I would say the answer briefly to that is yes, but I'm not going to go into anything further than just that answer.

Thank you, Steve, for the question.

Denise?

Thank you, sir.

Our next question will come from Jay McCanless of Stern Agee CRT.

Good morning everyone.

First question I had, in the west segment it looks like backlog conversion slowed down to the high 20%s rate from a mid 30% rate earlier this year.

Could you discuss what's going on there and is it weather-related, is it related to product, et cetera?

I don't think there's any specific reason that's going on there.

We've been selling very well in the west, and we're hoping for that delivery pace then.

As you know, it takes us nine months, sometimes 12 months to build a home.

So we're waiting for -- hoping for that delivery pace to significantly pick up in FY16, so there's just a little bit of a lag going on right now.

So to follow on that question, what are your average cycle times now compared to say a year ago or two years ago?

I don't think they've changed at all.

Generally, we're managing the backlog in each and every one of our communities.

As soon as it starts to get past 9 or 10 months, it becomes clear we're having a lot of success in the community and it's time to evaluate what to do with that project, raise price effectively, and that hasn't changed ever that mentality.

Okay, thank you.

You're welcome.

And in the next question will come from Collin Verron of RBC Capital Markets.

Hi thank you for taking my questions.

Going back to the apartment rental business, I was wondering if you guys had more of a long-term goal as to what you expect that business can contribute to your earnings and what that time frame of really achieving that is.

So the apartment development business, when we sell a building, would generate a sizeable gain, depending on how big that particular apartment building is.

Hopefully.

Hopefully, whereas the ownership and operation generates more cash flow and less net income, because you have a depreciation expense.

The REITs have worked around this by developing a funds for operation metric, which is something if our size warrants, we may consider supplementing our homebuilding operation net income with a funds from operation metric.

But at this point, those situations are a bit distant because this business is, at this point, small as a percentage of Toll Brothers, but hopefully growing.

So I don't think you will see much cash flow or operating income for the next couple years out of the apartment business, with the potential exception of a gain if we were to choose to sell one of these newer recent developments.

Great.

Thank you very much for the color.

You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Alex Barron of Housing Research Center.

Good morning, guys.

I was hoping you could expand on your comments around the south.

Is there anything -- in Houston, it's pretty clear that maybe the oil industry is what's causing the slowdown, but is there anything you guys have thought about what caused the slowdown in Florida and the Carolinas this quarter for you?

Alex, no.

It's hot in Florida.

They're small markets for us.

Texas is the biggest of the south, obviously, and we're most focused on what's going on in Texas.

Dallas has been good.

Houston has been okay.

I mentioned that the other builders are anxiously buying all of the land we can feed them in our big, very successful new master panel plans.

Raleigh and Charlotte are very small markets for us and have not performed well for some time.

We need to be bigger and we need to be better in those two markets, and Florida, as Bob said, it's hot in Florida.

This isn't the time we really focus on.

This is not when we sell most of our homes down there.

Most of our offerings, not all, are second home snowbirds.

So we're not reading all that much into it, and our attention is mostly focused upon getting better and bigger in Raleigh and Charlotte, finding more land in Florida, which is difficult, keeping a close eye on Houston, and continuing to grow in Dallas, which has been a great performer for us.

Okay, sounds good, and then everybody keeps anticipating the Fed's going to raise rates at some point, and some people would assume that that might impact mortgage rates as well.

Wondering if you guys are just taking a wait-and-see approach or if you're being a little more cautious as far as how aggressively you raised prices in the case that mortgage rates do start to go higher.

How are you thinking about that?

Don?

I can't comment on how we'll raise prices.

I can comment on rate strategy a little bit.

We offer some very aggressive and very attractive long-term rates, rate locks that buyers can take advantage of.

Almost all those offer a float down to current market if rates, in fact, drop or don't go up.

So the pricing strategy, I'll leave to those who are smarter than me.

But as far as rates, I know they're going to go up, go down, or stay the same.

I just can't tell you how much or in which direction.

And on the pricing strategy for our homes--

Well said.

We are not making pricing decisions in the field based on a future mortgage rate that we have no control over.

We are conformable that if rates go up, we believe they will go up very slowly, And based on the financial strength of our buyer, we do not think it will have a significant impact on their ability to buy our homes.

So we obviously keep an eye on rates and think about it, but we don't try to anticipate future rate moves with the pricing decisions we make today.

Got it.

Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

Our next question will come from Mike Zener of KeyBanc.

Hello, gentlemen.

Did you change your name, Mike?

(laughter)

A broader questions, but because -- look, you're hitting high prices; California is obviously playing a part of that.

You're talking about supply and demand in City Living, in traditionally Manhattan, some Jersey locations also moderating.

Yet California, where you had a lot of success with Shapell and single family, yet there's a lot of urban areas here, could you talk about perhaps how the Shapell investment, obviously successful, might limit your ability to pick up larger parcels perhaps out here, if Asian funding doesn't come through with some large scale projects that have been announced out in California?

How much can you guys -- should we be surprised if you spent $200 million in California on something more of the urban city or something like that?

Is that in play for you guys just conceptually?

Thank you very much, that's it.

Ken, we are back in action, buying ground in California.

Shapell hasn't hurt us in that regard.

I think it's helped us, because it's made us bigger and better and has given us more confidence in the market.

And I'm not aware of any individual future properties that we may have looked at that were funded with Asian sources that have now dried up.

What I do know is that we're seeing more deal flow out of northern and southern Cal than we've seen in quite a while.

In fact, the two deals I mentioned earlier that we closed on in the fourth quarter were California deals, the $160 million.

Right.

We just agreed in principle, a major deal in California, so we're encouraged.

And whether it goes urban, it hasn't been a big focus in the south.

I mentioned earlier that we scoured San Francisco, and were unsuccessful and we're going to look again.

One of the problems in San Francisco is the land tends to trade without approvals, and while the locals may be comfortable with that, we are not.

And so we haven't been all that competitive yet on San Francisco deals, but we will continue to look in San Francisco, and we are going to start fresh with an assault on some urban locations within greater LA.

That doesn't necessarily mean downtown, but it could mean Newport Beach, it could mean Santa Monica, it could mean a lot of other parts of LA that have an urban lifestyle and Toll Brothers City Living would be perfect.

So nothing to report but except that we're going to take a very hard look.

San Diego.

Thank you.

The next question will come from Will Randow of Citi.

Hey, afternoon guys and thank you for fitting me in.

A follow-up on thinking about City Living in terms of joint venture equity income, should it become a bigger piece of the business next year?

Don't know if you can help us [book end] thinking about 2016, should we be thinking about a double for JV income or what's the best way to think about that?

I think you're in the ballpark, but I think we're going to defer anything more specific until the fourth quarter.

All right, thank you for that.

And then its been asked a couple times, but I just want to get some more clarity on it.

In the past, you've waited to price your higher-end units in Manhattan for the significant premium.

But recently on high end units, I'll call it $10 million plus in Manhattan, you've see actual price reductions.

How do you think about the high-end market in Manhattan about what's your competitive response to that?

The high-end market in Manhattan is a little bit softer.

We don't have a lot over $10 million.

We have a very few units and a couple of our buildings that get over that number; our bread and butter is, call it, $3 million to $7 million, probably averaging in the $4 million to $5 million range where the market is very strong, so it's not a big part of our business.

We're not building the trophy buildings with big the $30 million, $50 million, $70 million, $90 million units, but I think it is, from what I read and with respect to the few units we have that get up there over that number, it's a little bit softer.

Thank you for that color and congratulations on the progress.

Thank you, Will.

Our final question will be a follow-up from Michael Rehaut of JPMorgan Securities.

Hi, thank you very much, appreciate it.

Most of my questions have been answered.

I think the -- I was curious just getting a little more detail of granularity on the regional markets and Houston, but I think you hit on that.

My only follow-up would just be when you think about the west, and obviously doing extremely well for you, maybe you could give us a sense of what that could be, obviously with Shapell, and you continue to look at different areas there.

This year it's in a -- as a percent of closing so far, it's in the high 20%s in terms of your mix of units for the year.

What could that be over the next two or three years?

Would you expect the west as a region and California to stay around that level, or could that grow to by another 5% or 10% of the overall mix?

Well there's a lot of ins and outs that go along with that guesstimate, Mike, but I think we could see the west getting up to 40% in the near term.

The strength in Seattle, Nevada, even in Phoenix, complements the strength we see in California.

Great.

Great.

Thanks a lot guys.

You're welcome.

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session.

I would like to turn the conference back over to Douglas Yearley for his closing remarks.

Thank you very much, Denise.

Thanks, everyone, for listening in.

Have a great final few weeks of summer and we will see you soon.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded.

We thank you for attending today's presentation.

You may now disconnect.