Teekay Tankers Ltd (TNK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Teekay Group first quarter 2025 earnings results conference call. During the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, you will be invited to participate in a question-and-answer session.(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Teekay Group 2025 年第一季財報業績電話會議。通話期間，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。之後，您將被邀請參加問答環節。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，本次通話正在錄音。

Now, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the company. Please go ahead.

現在，為了致開幕詞和介紹，我想將電話轉給公司。請繼續。

Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.teekay.com, where you'll find a copy of the Teekay Group's first quarter 2025 earnings presentation. Kenneth will review this presentation during today's conference call.

在我們開始之前，我想請所有參與者造訪我們的網站 www.teekay.com，在那裡您可以找到 Teekay Group 2025 年第一季財報的副本。肯尼斯將在今天的電話會議中回顧這場演講。

Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the first quarter 2025 Teekay Group earnings presentation available on our website.

請容許我提醒您，我們今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述預測的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，包含在我們網站上提供的 2025 年第一季度 Teekay Group 收益報告中。

I will now turn the call over to Kenneth Hvid, Teekay Corporation and Teekay Tankers' President and CEO to begin.

現在我將把電話轉給 Teekay Corporation 和 Teekay Tankers 總裁兼執行長 Kenneth Hvid。

Thank you, Ed. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today for the Teekay Group's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

謝謝你，艾德。大家好，非常感謝大家今天參加Teekay Group 2025年第一季財報電話會議。

Joining me on the call today for the Q&A session is Brody Speers, Teekay Corporation's and Teekay Tankers' CFO; Ryan Hamilton, our VP of Finance and Corporate Development; and Christian Waldegrave, our Director of Research.

今天與我一起參加電話問答環節的有 Teekay Corporation 和 Teekay Tankers 的財務長 Brody Speers、我們的財務和企業發展副總裁 Ryan Hamilton 以及我們的研究總監 Christian Waldegrave。

Starting on slide 3 of the presentation, we will cover Teekay Tankers' recent highlights. Teekay Tankers reported GAAP net income of $76 million, or $2.20 per share, and adjusted net income of $42 million, or $1.21 per share, in the first quarter. Teekay Tankers also generated approximately $65 million in free cash flow from operations during the quarter.

從簡報的第 3 張投影片開始，我們將介紹 Teekay Tankers 近期的亮點。Teekay Tankers 報告稱，第一季 GAAP 淨收入為 7,600 萬美元，即每股 2.20 美元，調整後淨收入為 4,200 萬美元，即每股 1.21 美元。Teekay Tankers 本季也從營運中產生了約 6500 萬美元的自由現金流。

Over the last several years, Teekay Tankers has created significant value through a strategy of maximizing our operating leverage to a strong tanker market, both by keeping our fleet spot exposed, as well as opportunistically increasing our exposures through well-timed in-charters. As asset values have been plateauing and remain at historically high levels, we are focused on reducing our exposure to 18 to 19-year-old tankers, as well as opportunistically selling some 2009-built Suezmax.

在過去幾年中，Teekay Tankers 透過最大化我們在強勁油輪市場的經營槓桿策略創造了巨大的價值，這既是透過保持我們船隊的現貨暴露，也是透過適時租船來增加我們的曝光度。由於資產價值一直處於穩定狀態並保持在歷史高位，我們專注於減少對 18 至 19 年船齡油輪的投資，並抓住機會出售一些 2009 年建造的蘇伊士型油輪。

Altogether, since the beginning of the year, our pace of vessel sales has increased, as we have sold six vessels for total gross proceeds of approximately $183 million, for a total expected accounting gain on sale of approximately $53 million.

總體而言，自今年年初以來，我們的船舶銷售速度有所加快，我們已售出六艘船舶，總收入約為 1.83 億美元，預期銷售會計收益總額約為 5,300 萬美元。

In addition, as previously announced, we have also agreed to acquire a modern LR2 vessel, which we expect to take delivery of at the end of the month. All of this is part of our fleet renewal plan, which includes selling older vessels and acquiring modern vessels. While we have been more active recently in selling rather than buying, we expect this trend to change over time, as we see opportunities to acquire more modern tonnage.

此外，正如先前宣布的那樣，我們還同意購買一艘現代化的 LR2 船舶，預計將於本月底交付。所有這些都是我們船隊更新計劃的一部分，其中包括出售老舊船隻和購買現代化船隻。雖然我們最近在銷售方面比購買方面更加積極，但我們預計這種趨勢會隨著時間的推移而改變，因為我們看到了獲得更多現代噸位的機會。

Looking at our second quarter-to-date rates, the spot tanker market has strengthened, and we are booking rates at meaningfully higher levels than the first quarter. We have secured spot rates of $40,400 per day and $36,800 per day for our Suezmax and Aframax LR2 fleets, respectively, with approximately 45% of our spot days booked. We will discuss the drivers of the market in the subsequent slides.

從我們第二季迄今的運價來看，現貨油輪市場已經走強，我們的預訂運價明顯高於第一季。我們已為蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪 LR2 船隊爭取到的現貨租金分別為每天 40,400 美元和 36,800 美元，現貨天數的預訂率約為 45%。我們將在後續投影片中討論市場驅動因素。

Teekay Tankers has declared its regular quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share. In addition, we have declared a special dividend of $1 per share for a total dividend payout of $1.25 per share, payable in May. Since updating our capital allocation plan in May 2023, Teekay Tankers will have paid out a total of $6.25 per share, which includes both our regular quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share and a total of $4 per share of special dividends.

Teekay Tankers 宣布其季度固定股息為每股 0.25 美元。此外，我們也宣布派發每股 1 美元的特別股息，總股息為每股 1.25 美元，將於 5 月支付。自 2023 年 5 月更新我們的資本配置計畫以來，Teekay Tankers 已支付每股總計 6.25 美元，其中包括每股 0.25 美元的常規季度固定股息和每股總計 4 美元的特別股息。

More importantly, over the same period, Teekay Tankers has grown its book equity per share by over $21, or close to over $27 including dividends, to a book equity of approximately $53 per share as of March 31, 2025, as evidenced by our recent gains on asset sales. Current market values exceed our historical book values.

更重要的是，在同一時期，Teekay Tankers 的每股帳面權益增長了 21 美元以上，包括股息在內則增長了近 27 美元以上，截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，每股帳面權益約為 53 美元，我們最近的資產出售收益證明了這一點。當前市場價值超過我們的歷史帳面價值。

Lastly, Teekay Corporation also declared a special dividend of $1 per share, payable in July. Please refer to the appendix for more details on Teekay Corporation's updates and results.

最後，Teekay Corporation 也宣布派發每股 1 美元的特別股息，將於 7 月支付。有關 Teekay Corporation 的最新動態和業績的更多詳細信息，請參閱附錄。

Moving to slide 4, we look at recent developments in the spot market. After a sluggish start to the year, mid-size tanker spot rates have increased to the highest levels in over 12 months. Rising oil production, particularly from the Americas, and the imposition of US sanctions on Russian and Iranian shipping since the beginning of the year, has led to Asian buyers sourcing more crude from the Atlantic Basin, resulting in higher mid-size tanker ton-mile demand.

前往投影片 4，我們來看看現貨市場的最新發展。在經歷了今年年初的低迷之後，中型油輪現貨運價已升至 12 個月以來的最高水平。石油產量不斷上升，尤其是美洲的石油產量，以及自今年年初以來美國對俄羅斯和伊朗航運實施的製裁，導致亞洲買家從大西洋盆地採購更多原油，從而導致中型油輪噸英里需求增加。

In addition, fleet supply has tightened as more vessels have been drawn into the Russian trade to replace sanctioned vessels, and as the price of crude has fallen below the price cap of $60 per barrel, allowing some owners to carry Russian crude without penalty.

此外，隨著越來越多的船隻被納入俄羅斯貿易以取代受制裁的船隻，以及原油價格跌破每桶 60 美元的價格上限，一些船東可以不受處罰地運輸俄羅斯原油，船隊供應也趨緊。

Turning to slide 5, we have highlighted two examples of how trade dynamics have benefited the mid-size tanker market since the start of the year. Starting with the chart on the left, Suezmax tanker ton-mile demand has benefited from a strong increase in the export of Kazakh crude oil from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium or CPC terminal in the Black Sea, with Suezmax loadings at a record high during March.

轉到投影片 5，我們重點介紹了兩個例子，說明自今年年初以來貿易動態如何使中型油輪市場受益。從左邊的圖表開始，蘇伊士型油輪噸英里需求受益於黑海里海管道聯盟或CPC碼頭哈薩克原油出口的強勁增長，3月份蘇伊士型油輪裝載量創下歷史新高。

In addition, we have seen an unusually high number of CPC cargoes heading long-haul to Asia, almost all of which are transiting via the Cape of Good Hope due to ongoing instability in the Red Sea. A voyage from the CPC terminal to China via the Cape takes around 50 days compared to just five days for a voyage to the Mediterranean or 12 days to northwest Europe, thereby creating significant ton-mile demand.

此外，我們發現前往亞洲長途運輸的 CPC 貨物數量異常多，由於紅海局勢持續不穩定，幾乎所有貨物都經由好望角轉運。從 CPC 碼頭經好望角到中國的航程大約需要 50 天，而到地中海的航程僅需 5 天，到西北歐的航程則需 12 天，因此產生了巨大的噸英里需求。

We have also seen an increase in Aframax loadings from Vancouver via the TMX pipeline in the past couple of months, with a record high 30 loadings in both March and April. These cargoes have been increasingly transiting directly to Asia on Aframaxes, with a record 14 direct transits in April. An Aframax voyage from Vancouver to China takes around 18 days compared to four days to southern California.

過去幾個月，我們也看到從溫哥華經 TMX 管道運輸的阿芙拉型油輪裝載量有所增加，3 月和 4 月的裝載量均創下 30 艘的新高。這些貨物越來越多地透過阿芙拉型油輪直接運往亞洲，4 月直接運往亞洲的次數達到了創紀錄的 14 次。阿芙拉型油輪從溫哥華航行至中國大約需要 18 天，而航行至南加州則需要 4 天。

The increase in direct transits to Asia is therefore leading to higher Aframax tanker ton-mile demand in the Asia-Pacific region, and we expect that this trend will continue as China and other Asian countries look to diversify their sources of oil supply.

因此，直達亞洲的航運量的增加導致亞太地區阿芙拉型油輪噸英里需求的增加，我們預計，隨著中國和其他亞洲國家尋求石油供應來源多元化，這一趨勢將持續下去。

These are just two examples of the shift in trade patterns, which have boosted tanker rates since the start of the year, with mid-size tanker ton-miles in March reaching the highest level in 18 months and holding at elevated levels during April.

這只是貿易模式轉變的兩個例子，自今年年初以來，貿易​​模式轉變已經推高了油輪運價，3月份中型油輪噸英里數達到18個月以來的最高水平，4月份也維持在高位。

Turning to slide 6, we look at near-term oil market fundamentals, which we believe could give support to tanker rates in the coming weeks and months. Global oil prices are currently at a four-year low due to concerns over the impact of US tariffs on future oil demand and the announcement from the OPEC Plus Group that they will accelerate the unwind of voluntary supply cuts during May and June and potentially beyond.

轉到幻燈片 6，我們來看看近期的石油市場基本面，我們認為這可能會為未來幾週和幾個月的油輪運價提供支撐。由於擔心美國關稅對未來石油需求的影響，以及石油輸出國組織加產集團宣布將在 5 月和 6 月甚至更久之後加速解除自願減產，全球油價目前處於四年來的最低水平。

Lower oil prices support the tanker market through reduced bunker fuel prices, which is our largest operational cost, and potentially higher oil demand. Tanker markets could find further support if the oil price futures curve move into a steeper contangual structure, which typically stimulates additional storage demand.

較低的油價透過降低燃油價格（這是我們最大的營運成本）和潛在的更高石油需求來支持油輪市場。如果油價期貨曲線進入更陡峭的鄰角結構，油輪市場可能會獲得進一步支撐，這通常會刺激額外的儲存需求。

As shown by the chart on the right, OECD oil inventories, including both commercial and government stockpiles, are currently at the bottom of the five-year range. Government and industry bodies could therefore use this window of lower oil prices as an opportunity to rebuild oil inventories, thereby driving additional tanker demand.

如右圖所示，經合組織石油庫存（包括商業和政府庫存）目前處於五年區間的底部。因此，政府和產業機構可以利用這次低油價的機會重建石油庫存，從而推動額外的油輪需求。

We're already seeing some evidence of this in China, with crude oil imports during March reaching the highest level since late 2023, while the United States has also signaled its desire to replenish its strategic petroleum reserve in the coming years.

我們已經在中國看到了一些證據，3月份原油進口量達到了2023年底以來的最高水平，而美國也表示希望在未來幾年補充其戰略石油儲備。

Turning to slide 7, we look at some of the uncertainties surrounding the medium-term tanker market outlook due to recent economic and geopolitical developments. The imposition of trade tariffs by the United States and subsequently retaliatory tariffs have clouded the outlook for the global economy and oil demand.

翻到第 7 張投影片，我們來看看由於最近的經濟和地緣政治發展而導致的中期油輪市場前景的一些不確定性。美國徵收貿易關稅以及隨後的報復性關稅給全球經濟和石油需求的前景蒙上了陰影。

While the outcome remains uncertain, industry analysts have started to adjust their global economic and oil demand forecasts downwards due to concerns that tariffs may harm global trade and lead to lower economic growth.

儘管結果仍不確定，但由於擔心關稅可能損害全球貿易並導致經濟成長放緩，產業分析師已開始下調全球經濟和石油需求預測。

It is worth noting that all of the major oil forecasting agencies are still expecting demand growth for this year and next, with the average forecast from the IEA, EIA and OPEC projecting 1.2 million barrels of growth in 2025 and a further 1 million barrels per day in 2026.

值得注意的是，各大石油預測機構仍預期今明兩年石油需求將成長，其中國際能源總署、美國能源資訊署和歐佩克的平均預測是，2025年石油需求將增加120萬桶/日，2026年將再成長100萬桶/日。

However, uncertainty does exist with the potential for further downgrades on global oil demand growth depending on how things progress during the year, with the increased risk of a potential global recession.

然而，不確定性確實存在，全球石油需求成長可能進一步下調，取決於今年局勢的發展，全球經濟衰退的風險增加。

In addition, last month saw an updated proposal from the US Trade Representative regarding the imposition of fees on Chinese owners and operators and Chinese built ships calling at US ports. While the final outcome is still uncertain, the most recent proposal is less impactful to non-Chinese tanker owners compared to the one which was initially put forward in February.

此外，美國貿易代表上個月提出了一項最新提案，涉及對停靠美國港口的中國船東、營運商和中國建造的船舶徵收費用。雖然最終結果仍不確定，但與二月最初提出的提案相比，最新提案對非中國油輪船東的影響較小。

We believe that the current proposal, should it be enforced, will be manageable, both from an industry and a TNK perspective, due to the various exemptions granted to non-Chinese operators of Chinese built vessels. A further hearing of the proposal is due to be held on May 19th, following which we would expect to have more clarity on how these rules will impact the wider tanker market.

我們相信，目前的提案如果得到執行，無論從行業角度還是從秋明集團的角度來看都是可控的，因為中國建造的船舶的非中國運營商享有各種豁免。該提案的進一步聽證會將於 5 月 19 日舉行，屆時我們預計將更清楚地了解這些規則將如何影響更廣泛的油輪市場。

The geopolitical landscape adds another layer of complexity to the outlook, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, the US maximum pressure campaign against Iran and the safety situation in the Red Sea, which continues to limit vessel transits.

地緣政治格局為前景增添了另一層複雜性，包括烏克蘭持續的戰爭、美國對伊朗的極限施壓以及紅海的安全局勢，這繼續限制船隻過境。

Any changes to these factors could impact the tanker market in the coming months, potentially adding to supply chain inefficiency or significant rerouting of trade flows. It remains very difficult to predict how these events will unfold and what impact they will have on the market.

這些因素的任何變化都可能影響未來幾個月的油輪市場，可能加劇供應鏈效率低下或貿易流的大幅改變。仍然很難預測這些事件將如何發展以及它們將對市場產生什麼影響。

Turning to slide 8, we look at fleet supply dynamics, which remains supportive through at least the medium term. The pace of tanker new build orders has slowed significantly since the middle of 2024, with just 2.8 million deadweight tons of orders placed in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest quarterly total since Q3 of 2022. Although the pace of tanker ordering has slowed, shipyards continue to receive orders in other shipping sectors, and we estimate the global shipyard capacity is essentially full through 2027 and approximately 70% full for 2028.

翻到第 8 張幻燈片，我們來看看船隊供應動態，至少在中期內，該動態仍將起到支撐作用。自 2024 年中期以來，油輪新建訂單的速度明顯放緩，2025 年第一季訂單量僅為 280 萬載重噸，為 2022 年第三季以來的最低季度總量。儘管油輪訂單速度有所放緩，但船廠仍在繼續接收其他航運領域的訂單，我們估計到 2027 年全球船廠產能基本滿載，到 2028 年將達到約 70%。

In addition, a lack of tanker scrapping means that the tanker fleet continues to age, with the average age of the global tanker fleet standing at 13.9 years as of April 2025, the highest since 2001. Should tanker market conditions worsen, there would be increased pressure on the large and growing pool of scrapped candidates to leave the market, providing a mechanism to rebalance the global fleet.

此外，油輪報廢不足意味著油輪船隊繼續老化，截至2025年4月，全球油輪船隊平均船齡為13.9年，為2001年以來的最高水準。如果油輪市場狀況惡化，大量報廢船舶將面臨越來越大的壓力，被迫退出市場，從而提供重新平衡全球船隊的機制。

We therefore believe the combination of the current order book, an aging tanker fleet, and constraints on available yard space points toward a balanced supply outlook and should result in continued low levels of tanker fleet growth over the medium term.

因此，我們認為，目前的訂單量、老化的油輪船隊以及可用碼頭空間的限制等因素綜合起來，將使供應前景趨於平衡，並將導致中期內油輪船隊增長持續處於低位。

Turning to slide 9, we highlight how Teekay Tankers has strong cash flow generation while remaining patient for future fleet renewal. Teekay Tankers' free cash flow breakeven has declined over the last several years to its lowest level of $13,200 per day from a peak of $21,300 per day in 2022. Combined with our operating leverage, we can generate cash flow in almost any market conditions.

翻到第 9 張幻燈片，我們重點介紹了 Teekay Tankers 如何擁有強勁的現金流，同時對未來的船隊更新保持耐心。過去幾年，Teekay Tankers 的自由現金流盈虧平衡點已從 2022 年的每天 21,300 美元的峰值下降至每天 13,200 美元的最低水平。結合我們的經營槓桿，我們幾乎可以在任何市場條件下產生現金流。

To emphasize, every $5,000 increase in spot rates above our breakeven produces $2.01 per share of annual free cash flow, or 4.4% on a free cash flow yield basis. The shipping industry is a cyclical, capital-intensive business which requires reinvestments as vessels age. While we have been returning capital to shareholders through dividends, a key priority is to retain significant cash flows to ensure we can act when the right opportunities present themselves as part of our fleet renewal strategy.

需要強調的是，現貨價格每超過損益平衡點 5,000 美元，就會產生每股 2.01 美元的年度自由現金流，或以自由現金流收益率計算為 4.4%。航運業是一個週期性、資本密集的產業，隨著船舶老化，需要進行再投資。雖然我們一直透過股息向股東返還資本，但一個關鍵優先事項是保留大量現金流，以確保我們能夠在合適的機會出現時採取行動，這是我們機隊更新策略的一部分。

While we continue to exercise patience, we are well-positioned to generate cash flows in almost any tanker market and are ready to use our balance sheet to take advantage of opportunities as they emerge.

在我們繼續保持耐心的同時，我們已準備好在幾乎任何油輪市場產生現金流，並準備好利用我們的資產負債表來抓住出現的機會。

With that, operator, we are now available to take questions.

接線員，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Kenneth, on that last point of patience, and it's been brought up a couple times in the past as well, obviously you've been more of a seller than a buyer. You insinuated in the press release that, that strategy may shift.

肯尼斯，關於最後一點耐心，過去也曾提到過幾次，顯然你更像賣家而不是買家。您在新聞稿中暗示該策略可能會改變。

But I just kind of have a tough time aligning the positive view on the market with the view that asset prices may come back in to a level that's attractive to you. So can you talk maybe a little bit about market outlook, why asset values may become more attractive and what it may take for you to shift from that seller mentality to more of a renewal mode?

但我只是很難將對市場的正面看法與資產價格可能回到對你有吸引力的水平的觀點結合起來。那麼，您能否稍微談談市場前景，為什麼資產價值可能變得更具吸引力，以及您需要做些什麼才能從賣方心態轉變為更新模式？

Yeah. Good morning, Jon. It's obviously a very good question, right? As we point out, we're trying to balance the thing of having a fleet that still generates significant cash flows. And as we are running all ship years, as you know, we've been doing over the last years without really reinvesting in new ship years.

是的。早安，喬恩。這顯然是一個非常好的問題，對吧？正如我們所指出的，我們正在努力平衡擁有一支能夠產生大量現金流的船隊。如您所知，由於我們正在運營所有船舶，所以過去幾年我們一直在這樣做，而實際上並沒有對新船舶進行再投資。

You come to a point where in a security industry, at some point, you've got to reload with new ship years, right? And the longer it goes, we're kind of back to the classic discussion that we had, as you and I remember back in 2008 and '09, it's just stronger for longer.

在安全產業中，到了某個時候，你必須重新裝載新的船齡，對嗎？而且時間越長，我們就會回到我們曾經討論過的經典問題，就像你我都記得的 2008 年和 2009 年那樣，這種現象會持續更長時間，而且會變得更加強烈。

And when is it going to turn? I think history tells us that it will turn at some point and markets will come down. And when it does, it happens suddenly and we tend to get surprised. And that's when opportunities to reload opens up.

什麼時候才會轉變？我認為歷史告訴我們，到了某個時候情況就會轉變，市場就會下跌。當它發生時，它發生得很突然，我們往往會感到驚訝。這時，重新加載的機會就出現了。

I think staying disciplined in this, we are very clear on what breakeven levels we can run a calculator as most of our peers can. We understand what levels you kind of, it's a good time to make a 20-year investment where we think we can have a good chance of making a return.

我認為，只要我們保持紀律，我們就能像大多數同行一樣，非常清楚我們可以用計算器計算出什麼盈虧平衡水平。我們了解您的感受，現在是進行 20 年投資的好時機，我們認為我們很有機會獲得回報。

But you're absolutely right. Of course, it's a challenge that we have a strong market and the medium-term outlook is actually pretty good. And at the same time, we're kind of running off ship years and we would like to load on some new years.

但你完全正確。當然，我們面臨的挑戰是，我們擁有強勁的市場，中期前景其實相當不錯。同時，我們正在耗盡一些舊船貨，並希望裝載一些新船貨。

So that's why we're leaning in slowly and picking a couple of shifts. So if we look at other sectors, you have seen ordering coming down and as that comes down, we typically see also shipyard prices coming down. That's what we expect will happen towards the end of this year.

所以這就是為什麼我們要慢慢地傾斜並選擇幾個班次。因此，如果我們看一下其他行業，您會看到訂單量下降，而隨著訂單量的下降，我們通常也會看到造船廠價格下降。我們預計這將在今年年底發生。

I understand it's difficult to answer that. Maybe difficult to answer this follow-up too. Putting on your Teekay Corp hat for a second, I know that the group in general has had the struggle with finding attractively priced assets in any subsegment. But here you have this subsidiary that you own a big stake in, in TNK, trading by anyone's calculator in massive discount to NAV.

我知道這個問題很難回答。也許回答這個問題也很難。站在 Teekay Corp 的角度，我知道該集團總體上一直在努力在任何細分市場中尋找具有價格吸引力的資產。但是，您擁有這家子公司的大量股份，即 TNK，任何人用計算器都可以以遠低於資產淨值的折扣進行交易。

I understand that you're trying to be patient and there's going to be a reload opportunity at some point, but it seems like it's almost not mutually exclusive when you have almost $1 billion of liquidity at TNK. And I don't know what the liquidity is at Teekay, but I imagine it's quite large as well.

我知道您正在努力保持耐心，並且在某個時候會有重新加載的機會，但當 TNK 擁有近 10 億美元的流動資金時，這似乎幾乎不是相互排斥的。我不知道 Teekay 的流動性是多少，但我想它也相當大。

Wouldn't TNK shares, either from the Teekay corporate level or the TNK subsidiary level, just be the most attractive use of that liquidity today as you wait for the asset values to come in a little bit?

當您等待資產價值上漲時，無論是從 Teekay 公司層級還是從 TNK 子公司層級來看，TNK 股票不是當今流動性最具吸引力的用途嗎？

I think it's a good point. And it's obviously one we are assessing. And as we all saw, the whole space took a dive here in Q1. I think everybody, irrespective of what our strategies are, what our feed profiles are, what our dividend policies are, we're largely trading at these discounts that you refer to. And that obviously always makes it complicated to run that calculator and just increase your NAV by buying back stock.

我認為這是一個很好的觀點。顯然我們正在評估這一點。正如我們所看到的，整個領域在第一季都出現了下滑。我認為每個人，無論我們的策略是什麼，我們的飼料概況是什麼，我們的股息政策是什麼，我們基本上都是以您提到的這些折扣進行交易的。這顯然會使運行計算器變得複雜，並且只能透過回購股票來增加您的資產淨值。

But at the same time, we're an operating company. At some point, we need to buy steel so we can generate future cash flows. But as you've seen in the past, we've been buying back stock, especially at Teekay actively.

但同時，我們也是一家營運公司。在某個時候，我們需要購買鋼材，以便產生未來的現金流。但正如您過去所看到的，我們一直在回購股票，尤其是積極回購 Teekay 的股票。

And we did that because we're trading at an even bigger discount there. Now we're trading in line, which we think is the right currency that we should have. So, of course, we're looking at it and especially at the valuation we have at TNK. I agree. It looks attractive.

我們這樣做是因為我們在那裡以更大的折扣進行交易。現在我們正在進行交易，我們認為這是我們應該擁有的正確貨幣。因此，我們當然正在關注這個問題，特別是我們對 TNK 的估值。我同意。看起來很吸引人。

Omar Nokta with Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的奧馬爾諾克塔 (Omar Nokta)。

Kind of maybe just following up on Jon's line of questions. You mentioned, you clearly have been a net seller, but that could change as time goes on. But I guess when we think about the footprint you have today, is there a level you need to stay above in terms of maintaining a critical mass? You have the 20 Suezmax and the 15 Afras. What's the threshold where you don't want to get below and that starts to maybe affect your commercial presence?

可能只是在跟進喬恩的一系列問題。您提到，您顯然是淨賣家，但隨著時間的推移，情況可能會改變。但我想，當我們考慮到您今天的足跡時，在維持臨界質量方面您是否需要保持在某個水平之上？你們有 20 艘蘇伊士型油輪和 15 艘阿夫拉型油輪。您不想低於哪個門檻，這可能會開始影響您的商業影響力？

Yeah, that's a good question. I think, Omar, that's a great question as well, and obviously one we are looking at and discussing. I would say we still have a bit of room, but there is, of course, a level without giving you the exact number. I would say there is a point being an integrated operating company that we don't really want to dip below.

是的，這是個好問題。奧馬爾，我認為這也是一個很好的問題，顯然我們正在研究和討論這個問題。我想說我們仍然有一點空間，但當然有一個水平，但我不會告訴你確切的數字。我想說，作為一家綜合營運公司，我們確實不想跌破這個底線。

I would say from a commercial trading point of view, we haven't really seen the impact on commercial performance. We seem to be able to get our ships around and get the right charters on them. So I think the performance, considering the profile of the fleet and everything, is actually very good, especially on the Aframaxes on a relative basis and the Suezmaxes we are holding up as well. So I think it's not really impeding the commercial trading of it.

我想說，從商業交易的角度來看，我們還沒有真正看到對商業表現的影響。我們似乎能夠讓我們的船隻四處航行並獲得正確的租船許可。因此，我認為，考慮到船隊的狀況和所有因素，表現實際上非常好，尤其是相對而言的阿芙拉型油輪以及我們正在持有的蘇伊士型油輪。所以我認為這並沒有真正阻礙其商業交易。

But of course, there's always a scale consideration that we have here. So that's also why we're saying that we're probably going to be slowing down on the sales and look for opportunities. So I would say it's close to where we are now.

但當然，我們總是要考慮規模。所以這也是為什麼我們說我們可能會放慢銷售速度並尋找機會。所以我想說它已經接近我們現在的水平了。

We would go a little bit lower. But of course, the exciting part is that we now have a significant investment capacity to renew the fleet when the right opportunities arise. And then shipping, they do come around. So we're excited about that outlook.

我們會稍微降低一點。但當然，令人興奮的是，當合適的機會出現時，我們現在擁有強大的投資能力來更新船隊。然後運輸就到了。因此，我們對這一前景感到興奮。

And maybe just a follow-up just to that. And I think I know I've asked you this before, but just in general, I mean, clearly, you've gotten to a point where the cash is just coming in the door very, very quickly. You paid off all the debt.

或許這只是對此的一個後續行動。我想我知道我之前問過你這個問題，但總的來說，我的意思是，顯然你已經到了一個階段，現金流入的速度非常非常快。你已經還清了所有債務。

And now it's just, you get to enjoy the benefit of seeing that cash come in and completely understand the reluctance to want to distribute it to shareholders, given that there is a need to replenish and modernize the fleet. I guess maybe as you kind of think about that big picture, does it still make sense to want to put capital to work in tankers? And you just said that there could be, these opportunities show up very quickly.

現在，您可以享受現金流入的好處，並且完全理解不願意將其分配給股東，因為需要補充和現代化船隊。我想也許當你從大局考慮時，將資本投入油輪業務是否仍然有意義？正如您剛才所說，這些機會可能會很快出現。

But does it make sense maybe to maybe shift the mindset altogether of the company where you've made these winnings, quote, unquote, from a strong spot market? And do you take that capital and try to maybe redeploy it into something completely different where the earnings quality is perhaps better than a spot-driven tanker business?

但是，也許徹底改變從強勁的現貨市場中獲利的公司的思維方式是否有意義？您是否會嘗試將這些資金重新部署到完全不同的領域，其獲利品質可能比現貨油輪業務更好？

Yeah, that's another really good question, Omar. And we've spent a lot of time looking at other sectors and also looking at it from a Teekay Corp perspective historically. And so far, I think we're very happy not having invested in other sectors in the last couple of years. I think the sector we are in here has actually performed extremely well. And we clearly have an operating franchise that is performing well. And that's where we have the skill sets.

是的，這又是一個非常好的問題，奧馬爾。我們花了很多時間研究其他領域，同時也從 Teekay Corp 的歷史角度來研究它。到目前為止，我認為我們很高興過去幾年沒有投資其他領域。我認為我們所在的行業實際上表現得非常好。顯然，我們的特許經營權表現良好。這就是我們的技能所在。

I would say that what we are always looking at that is interesting is, of course, the adjacency to the core segments that Teekay is in. So we have Aframaxes, where we traditionally have been very large. And we have Suezmax, where we're actually larger today.

我想說的是，我們一直在關注的有趣的事情當然是與 Teekay 所處的核心部分的相鄰性。因此，我們擁有阿芙拉型油輪，傳統上我們的這種油輪體積非常大。我們還有蘇伊士型油輪，目前體積實際上更大。

But of course, the adjacent sectors to that is moving up one size to VLCCs and is moving one size down to MRs. And that's all within our wheelhouse. So we are constantly comparing, contrasting the relative return expectations or attractiveness of each of those sectors.

但當然，相鄰的扇區將向上移動一個尺寸到 VLCC，並向下移動一個尺寸到 MR。而這一切都在我們的掌控之中。因此，我們不斷地比較、對比各行業的相對回報預期或吸引力。

And I think that gives us a pretty sizable sandbox in which we can reallocate capital into in terms of segments that we really feel are close to our core operations and core skills and where we have the customer relationships. And I'm pretty sure that we'll find what we consider kind of good entry levels in any of those spaces here in the next year or two. I would be very surprised if that doesn't happen.

我認為這為我們提供了一個相當大的沙箱，我們可以將資本重新分配到我們真正認為接近我們的核心營運和核心技能以及我們擁有客戶關係的領域。我非常確信，在未來一兩年內，我們將在這些領域中找到我們認為良好的入門水平。如果這種情況沒有發生，我會感到非常驚訝。

Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

You talked about at the beginning of the call kind of the super seasonality of rates lasting into 2Q here and maybe even staying a little stronger. Maybe you can talk a little bit about that strength and your thoughts as we've moved deeper into May and the continuation of that.

您在電話會議開始時談到利率的超級季節性將持續到第二季​​度，甚至可能保持略微強勁的勢頭。隨著我們進入五月並繼續前進，也許您可以稍微談論這種力量和您的想法。

And then on that same vein, you threw out the shift to Asia, coming out of Vancouver would continue. Maybe just add on some thoughts on, if we start getting increasing peace discussions with the Houthis around the Red Sea or Ukraine and Russia, would you see that abate and see some rapid pressure on those rates? Or maybe just your thoughts on kind of that, the pace with which we could see that alter?

然後，出於同樣的原因，你放棄了向亞洲轉移的計劃，繼續從溫哥華轉移。也許只是補充一些想法，如果我們開始與紅海或烏克蘭和俄羅斯周圍的胡塞武裝進行越來越多的和平討論，你會看到這種情況有所減弱並看到這些費率出現一些快速壓力嗎？或者也許只是您對此的想法，我們可以看到這種改變的速度？

That's a good crystal ball question trying to predict what's going to happen in the world here, right? But the way we, I guess, think about it is that when you look back, the last two quarters were lower than what we have experienced in the past three years, so sequentially down. Clearly what's driving the rates right now are everything I mentioned in our prepared remarks.

這是一個很好的水晶球問題，試圖預測這個世界會發生什麼，對嗎？但我想，我們這樣想是這樣的：當你回顧時，你會發現過去兩個季度的業績低於過去三年的業績，因此是連續下降的。顯然，目前推動利率上漲的正是我在準備好的發言中提到的一切。

We have a low oil price and we're seeing these that for the first time in three years are actually outperforming the other sectors. So that's interesting. It's kind of -- it feels a little bit more back to normal how the tanker markets used to work. But when you look at the world, we're certainly not back to normal, right? There's a lot of moving pieces in the world right now.

我們目前處於低油價時期，我們看到這些行業三年來首次表現優於其他行業。這很有趣。感覺油輪市場運作方式已經恢復正常了。但當你環顧這個世界時，我們肯定還沒有恢復正常，對嗎？當今世界有很多事情正在改變。

So it's incredibly difficult to predict exactly what -- how that's going to flow down to tanker rates, I think. What I can say is that, as we also point out and what we focused on, is that when you have low oil price and you have low inventories, you typically have a couple of quarters where you see some pretty good demand.

因此，我認為，要準確預測這將如何影響油輪運費是極其困難的。我可以說的是，正如我們所指出的和我們所關注的，當油價低且庫存低時，通常有幾季度的需求會相當好。

But, of course, it doesn't last forever. And therefore, at some point, our expectation is that, yeah, there will probably be some correction. But I would say the outlook, especially for the larger ships right now, looks very positive.

但當然，它不會永遠持續下去。因此，在某個時候，我們預期可能會有一些調整。但我想說，前景，特別是目前大型船舶的前景，看起來非常樂觀。

Yeah, that's a great point on the low inventories and the sustainability of that. So let me jump over to your slide 8, which had the 309 on the order book and 109 that are over 20 years. And then you've got a range of 319 that are 15 and 19. And some of those obviously could be closer to 15 than 19.

是的，關於低庫存及其可持續性，這是一個很好的觀點。因此，讓我跳到您的第 8 張投影片，其中訂單簿上有 309 個，而超過 20 年的訂單有 109 個。然後你就得到了 319 個範圍，即 15 和 19。其中一些顯然可能更接近 15，而不是 19。

And so I look at that and see kind of an order book that continues to build in and maybe outpace kind of those retirements, which is why are you not fearful that that can put pressure? I mean, again, your cash flow break even so low, it's not like we're talking about those levels. But just wondering your thoughts on why we should not expect to see some additional pressure on rates.

因此，我看到訂單簿不斷增加，甚至可能超過退休人數，這就是為什麼你不擔心這會帶來壓力？我的意思是，你的現金流損益平衡點如此之低，這並不是我們談論的那些水準。但我只是想知道您對我們為什麼不應該預期看到利率出現額外壓力的看法。

Yeah, I wouldn't say we're not fearful. I think we're always running the business with being mindful of what could happen to rates. And I think you raised a good point. I mean, as we pointed out in our call last quarter, if you look at the medium sized tanker space and include the LR2s, and so you look at Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, as we pointed out last quarter, if we don't have any scrapping happening over the next two years, three years, we will have a fleet which is 600, which counts 600 vessels that are over 20 years old in that space.

是的，我不會說我們不害怕。我認為我們在經營業務時總是會留意利率可能發生的變化。我認為你提出的觀點很好。我的意思是，正如我們在上個季度的電話會議中指出的那樣，如果你看看中型油輪領域並包括 LR2，那麼你再看看阿芙拉型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪，正如我們上個季度指出的那樣，如果我們在未來兩年或三年內沒有任何拆解事件發生，我們的船隊規模將達到 600 100 20 20 200 202 200 202 202 202 20232 的船隻。

And I think that is, to be honest, that is the big valve that we're all looking at, because as long as there's no scrapping happening in that age group and you see utilization of that age of vintage of vessels, then I would say at some point the rates should come down.

我認為，說實話，這是我們都在關注的一大問題，因為只要該年齡段的船舶沒有被報廢，並且該年齡段的船舶得到利用，那麼我想說，在某個時候費率應該會下降。

We're also pointing out in our remarks, prepared remarks here, that as the market corrects, and we haven't seen that dip yet, you have a big release valve here where there's a lot of vessels that naturally should be scrapped.

我們還在我們的發言中指出，這裡準備好了發言，隨著市場調整，我們還沒有看到下滑，這裡有一個很大的釋放閥，很多船隻自然應該被報廢。

And I think from a historical point of view, that's very different, again, from what we saw in 2008. The issue in 2008 that we had the youngest fleet that we've had in 20 years. Today, we have the oldest average fleet age that we've had in 20 years. And, of course, the incentive to scrap a 20 or 22-year old ship is very different from scrapping a 70-year-old ship, which was the situation we had back then.

我認為從歷史角度來看，這與 2008 年的情況非常不同。2008 年的問題是，我們擁有 20 年來最年輕的機隊。如今，我們的機隊平均機齡已達到 20 年來的最高水準。當然，報廢一艘 20 或 22 年船齡的船舶的動機與報廢一艘 70 年船齡的船舶的動機截然不同，而後者正是我們當時的情況。

So I think that's how the situation is a little bit different. We're very mindful that we're probably going to see some corrections, but we also think that there are some valves that very effectively will take care of putting some of the older tonnage away.

所以我認為情況有點不同。我們非常清楚，我們可能會看到一些修正，但我們也認為，有一些閥門可以非常有效地處理一些舊噸位的淘汰問題。

If I could just get a follow-up there on the restocking of the oil inventories. Anything you can quantify in terms of where we are relative to normal levels, if you go back to that chart, or how quickly you think that could absorb some capacity in a slow summer or a low period to keep the rates elevated again, putting that crystal ball back on?

我能否就石油庫存補充問題進行後續跟進？如果您回到該圖表，您能否量化我們相對於正常水平的水平，或者您認為在夏季或低迷時期可以多快吸收一些容量以再次保持費率上升，將水晶球放回原處？

Yeah, we have Christian Waldegrave on the call as well who follows this very closely, so

是的，Christian Waldegrave 也參與了我們的電話會議，他非常關注此事，

I'll hand it over to him to comment.

我會把它交給他去評論。

Yeah, thanks, Kenneth. Yeah, I think it's difficult to quantify in terms of how much actual demand or how much it's going to influence the rates. But the fact that the inventories are at the bottom of the five-year range, both commercial and strategic, as we pointed out in the remarks there, means that as OPEC starts increasing production and we get more non-OPEC supply coming on this year with, I think we've got five FPSOs coming on in Brazil and Guyana over the next few months, we should have a relative oversupply of oil relative to demand.

是的，謝謝，肯尼斯。是的，我認為很難量化實際需求量或對利率的影響程度。但正如我們在評論中指出的那樣，商業和戰略庫存都處於五年範圍的底部，這意味著隨著歐佩克開始增加產量，並且今年我們將獲得更多非歐佩克供應，我認為我們將在未來幾個月內在巴西和圭亞那投入使用五艘浮式生產儲油船 (FPSO)，我們的石油供應應該會相對過剩。

And given where oil prices are at, it should add to inventories and flow into inventories. I think on-land storage will get filled first. Who knows, if the curve goes steeper into contango, at times you might see some floating storage as well, which then starts to tie up tonnage.

考慮到目前的油價，它應該會增加庫存並流入庫存。我認為陸上儲存將首先被填滿。誰知道呢，如果曲線進一步陡峭地進入正價差，有時你可能還會看到一些浮動存儲，然後開始佔用噸位。

As Kenneth pointed out, it's not a situation that will last forever, but these periods where you do get inventories being refilled and a low oil price in contango situation, we know from the past that they can be quite positive for rates.

正如肯尼斯指出的那樣，這種情況不會永遠持續下去，但在庫存補充和正價差情況下油價較低的時期，我們從過去的經驗中知道，這些時期對利率來說是相當有利的。

And it's coming at a good time, right? Because normally going into Q2 and Q3 and the summer months, you would start to see the seasonal dip in tanker rates, but we might get some counter-seasonal strength here through the summer.

而且它來得正是時候，對吧？因為通常進入第二季、第三季和夏季，你會開始看到油輪運價的季節性下降，但整個夏季我們可能會看到一些反季節的強勁勢頭。

And then beyond that, like Kenneth said, the refilling of the inventories is good for a period of time. After that, once the inventories are refilled, you might start to see OPEC cutting production again or non-OPEC production coming off if the oil price stays low for longer.

除此之外，就像肯尼斯所說的那樣，補充庫存在一段時間內是有益的。此後，一旦庫存得到補充，如果油價長期維持在低位，你可能會看到歐佩克再次減產，或者非歐佩克國家產量下降。

So, it's definitely a window of opportunity here where we could see some counter-seasonal strength. But like Kenneth said, I think the sort of longer-term picture is still a little bit unclear, given everything that's going on in the world.

因此，這絕對是一個機會之窗，我們可以看到一些反季節的力量。但就像肯尼斯所說的那樣，考慮到世界上正在發生的一切，我認為長期前景仍然有點不明朗。

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to the company for additional or closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交回公司，以便發表補充意見或結語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us on our call today. We look forward to reporting back to you next quarter. Have a great day.

感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。我們期待下個季度向您報告。祝你有美好的一天。

And that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。