Teekay Tankers Ltd (TNK) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Teekay Group second quarter 2025 earnings results conference call.

歡迎參加 Teekay Group 2025 年第二季財報業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn it over to the company. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將開場白和介紹交給公司。請繼續。

Before we begin, I would like to direct all participants to our website at www.tk.com, where you will find a copy of the TK Group's second quarter 2025 earnings presentation. Kenneth will review this presentation during today's conference call.

在我們開始之前，我想請所有參與者造訪我們的網站 www.tk.com，在那裡您可以找到 TK 集團 2025 年第二季財報的副本。肯尼斯將在今天的電話會議中回顧這場演講。

Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from results projected by those forward-looking statements.

請容許我提醒您，我們今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述預測的結果有重大差異。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the second quarter of 2025 TK Group earnings presentation available on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Kenneth, TK Corporation, and TK Tankers, President and CEO to begin.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，包含在我們網站上提供的 2025 年第二季度 TK 集團收益報告中。現在我將把電話轉給 TK 公司和 TK 油輪公司的總裁兼執行長肯尼斯 (Kenneth)。

Thank you, Ed. Hello, everyone, and thank you very much for joining us today for the TK Group's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

謝謝，艾德。大家好，非常感謝大家今天參加TK集團2025年第二季財報電話會議。

Joining me on the call today for the Q&A session is Brody Speers, TK Corporations, and TK Tanker CFO, Ryan Hamilton, our VP of Finance and Corporate Development, and Christian Waldegrave, our Director of Research.

今天與我一起參加電話問答環節的有 TK Corporations 和 TK Tanker 財務長 Brody Speers、我們的財務和企業發展副總裁 Ryan Hamilton 以及我們的研究總監 Christian Waldegrave。

Starting on slide three of the presentation, we will cover TK Tanker's recent highlights. TK Tanker's reported GAAP net income of $62.6 million or $1.81 per share, and adjusted net income of $48.7 million or $1.41 per share in the second quarter. Second quarter spot rates were counter-seasonally strong, with rates outperforming the last two quarters and above long-term averages for second quarter.

從簡報的第三張投影片開始，我們將介紹 TK Tanker 近期的亮點。TK Tanker 報告稱，第二季 GAAP 淨收入為 6,260 萬美元，即每股 1.81 美元，調整後淨收入為 4,870 萬美元，即每股 1.41 美元。第二季的現貨運費表現反季強勁，優於前兩個季度，且高於第二季的長期平均水準。

Further, with spot rates well above our free cash flow breakeven levels, the company generated approximately $62.8 million in free cash flow from operations, and at the end of the quarter had a cash and short-term investment position of $712 million and no debt.

此外，由於現貨匯率遠高於我們的自由現金流盈虧平衡水平，該公司從營運中產生了約 6,280 萬美元的自由現金流，並且在本季度末擁有 7.12 億美元的現金和短期投資頭寸，並且沒有債務。

With strong free cash flow generation and cash position, TK Tanker's is well positioned to continue actively executing on our fleet renewal strategy. This includes reducing our exposure to 18 years to 19-year-old vessels, as well as opportunistically selling some 2009 built Suezmax in today's historically higher asset price environment, as well as making incremental purchases of modern vessels.

憑藉強大的自由現金流生成和現金狀況，TK Tanker 已準備好繼續積極執行我們的船隊更新策略。這包括減少對船齡 18 至 19 年的船舶的投資，以及在當今歷史較高的資產價格環境下趁機出售一些 2009 年建造的蘇伊士型油輪，以及逐步購買現代船舶。

In July, we acquired one modern Suezmax and we agreed to acquire the remaining 50% ownership interest in the Hong Kong Spirit VLCC from our joint venture partner. This VLCC acquisition was opportunistic based on relative market values and our belief in the near-term strength of the tanker market.

7月，我們收購了一艘現代蘇伊士型油輪，並同意從合資夥伴手中收購香港精神號超大型油輪剩餘的50%所有權。此次 VLCC 收購是基於相對市場價值以及我們對油輪市場近期強勁表現的信心而做出的機會。

In addition, the company agreed to sell five vessels and 1 LR2, which will be delivered to the new owners in the third and fourth quarters for a combined total of $158.5 million which we expect to result in an estimated book gain on sale of approximately $46 million.

此外，該公司同意出售五艘船舶和一艘 LR2，這些船舶將於第三季和第四季交付給新船東，總價為 1.585 億美元，我們預計這將帶來約 4,600 萬美元的帳面銷售收益。

So far in 2025 we have sold or agreed to sell 11 vessels for total gross proceeds of $340 million and estimated book gains on sale of approximately $100 million. Although our sales have outpaced our purchases so far this year, the plan is to gradually change the pace of buying as we remain focused on renewing and growing our fleet in an accretive manner to future earnings.

到 2025 年為止，我們已出售或同意出售 11 艘船舶，總收入為 3.4 億美元，預計帳面收益約為 1 億美元。儘管今年到目前為止我們的銷售量已經超過了購買量，但我們計劃逐步改變購買速度，因為我們仍然專注於以增加未來收益的方式更新和擴大我們的船隊。

Looking at our third quarter today rates, we have secured spot rates of $31,400 per day and $28,200 per day for our Suezmax and Aframax and the two fleets respectively, with approximately 43% of our spot days booked.

從我們第三季的今日運費來看，我們已為蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪以及兩支船隊分別爭取到了每天 31,400 美元和每天 28,200 美元的現貨運運費，其中現貨天數預訂率約為 43%。

We believe there are potential tailwinds for the tanker markets towards the end of the year, and that the fundamentals for the medium term remain balanced, but with more uncertainty due to the complex geopolitical landscape. We'll discuss the drivers of the market in the next few slides. Lastly, TK Tanker's has declared its regular quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share.

我們相信，到今年年底，油輪市場可能會出現順風，中期基本面將保持平衡，但由於地緣政治形勢複雜，不確定性會增加。我們將在接下來的幾張投影片中討論市場驅動因素。最後，TK Tanker 宣布其季度固定股息為每股 0.25 美元。

Moving to slide four, we look at recent developments in the stock market. Spot tanker rates improved during the second quarter compared to the last two quarters, and rates were above long-term average levels for the second quarter.

轉到第四張投影片，我們來看看股市的近期發展。與前兩季相比，第二季現貨油輪運價有所改善，且高於第二季的長期平均值。

The strength and tanker rates were primarily due to longer average voyage distances during April, though rates subsequently softened during the remainder of the quarter in line with normal seasonal trends.

油輪運費的強勁成長主要歸因於 4 月平均航程的延長，但隨後在本季剩餘時間內，運費有所下降，符合正常的季節性趨勢。

The market saw a brief period of volatility in the middle of June following the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran. However, there was no material disruption to regional oil production, exports, or tanker movements, with several spot charters failing subjects and rates quickly reverting to prior levels once a ceasefire was announced.

隨著以色列和伊朗之間的敵對行動升級，市場在 6 月中旬經歷了短暫的波動。然而，該地區的石油生產、出口或油輪運輸並未受到實質幹擾，一些現貨租船合約未能履行，停火宣布後，運費迅速恢復到先前的水準。

Turning to slide five, we look at near-term oil fundamentals which we believe could give support to tanker rates during the second half of the year. Global oil production is expected to increase sharply in the coming months due to the unwinding of OPEC plus supply costs and higher production from South America.

轉到第五張投影片，我們來看看近期的石油基本面，我們認為這可能會為下半年的油輪運價提供支撐。由於石油輸出國組織（OPEC）減產、供應成本上升以及南美洲產量增加，預計未來幾個月全球石油產量將大幅增加。

The OPEC plus Group has accelerated the unwind and at the current pace will have fully unwound the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary supply costs by September 2025, a full year ahead of schedule.

歐佩克及其盟友已加快解除自願減產協議的步伐，以目前的速度，到2025年9月將完全解除每日220萬桶的自願減產協議，比原計劃提前一年。

This should translate into increased tanker ton mile demand, particularly from September onwards as reduced domestic demand will allow Middle Eastern producers led by Saudi Arabia to increase seaborne exports.

這將轉化為油輪噸英里需求的增加，特別是從9月開始，因為國內需求的減少將使以沙烏地阿拉伯為首的中東生產商能夠增加海運出口。

New offshore oil production coming online in Brazil and Guyana should also increase volumes and support crude tank of some mild demand during the second half of the year.

巴西和圭亞那新投產的海上石油產量也將增加，並支持下半年原油需求的溫和成長。

As shown by the chart on the left of the slide, global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in the coming quarters, leading to an expected build in global oil inventories. The chart on the right shows that oil inventories outside of China are currently below average levels. Therefore, we expect that the market will be able to absorb the additional supply that is due to come online.

如投影片左側的圖表所示，預計未來幾季全球石油供應將超過需求，導致全球石油庫存預計增加。右圖顯示，中國以外的石油庫存目前低於平均值。因此，我們預計市場將能夠吸收即將上線的額外供應。

Periods of oil inventory bills have historically been positive for tanker rates, and we believe this could be another tailwind for rates as we move into the seasonally stronger winter months.

從歷史上看，石油庫存帳單期間對油輪運費一直呈積極趨勢，我們相信，隨著我們進入季節性較強的冬季，這可能會為運費帶來另一個順風。

Turning to slide six, we review the key drivers of the medium-term outlook, but also some of the uncertainties which add a layer of complexity.

翻到第六張投影片，我們回顧了中期前景的主要驅動因素，但也回顧了一些增加複雜性的不確定因素。

Global oil demand is projected to increase by 0.7 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026 as per the IEA. While this is lower than projections made at the start of the year, it still represents healthy growth and would push total oil demand to a record high of almost 105 million barrels per day.

根據國際能源總署的預測，2025 年和 2026 年全球石油需求將分別增加 70 萬桶/日。雖然這低於年初的預測，但仍代表著健康的成長，並將推動石油總需求達到每天近 1.05 億桶的歷史新高。

As mentioned on the previous slide, growing oil supply from both OPEC plus and non-OPEC plus sources will help meet this demand growth and provide positive tanker sun demand growth, particularly as we anticipate that a growing portion of new oil supply coming online in the Atlantic basin will be moved long haul to meet growing demand in Asia.

正如上一張幻燈片所述，來自 OPEC 成員國和非 OPEC 成員國的石油供應不斷增長將有助於滿足這一需求增長，並為油輪太陽能需求帶來積極增長，特別是我們預計大西洋盆地新增石油供應中越來越多的部分將進行長途運輸，以滿足亞洲日益增長的需求。

Turning to global fleet supply, the pace of new tango orders has slowed significantly since the start of the year, with 11 million [dead] weights of new orders placed in the first six months compared to 42 million [dead] weights in the same period of 2024.

談到全球船隊供應，自今年年初以來，新船訂單速度已顯著放緩，前六個月的新訂單為 1100 萬 [載重] 噸，而 2024 年同期為 4200 萬 [載重] 噸。

The order book, when measured as a percentage of the global tanker fleet has stabilized in recent months at approximately 15%. Meanwhile, a lack of tanker scrapping means that the fleet continues to age, with the average age of the global tanker fleet at 25 years high of 14 years.

以全球油輪船隊百分比來衡量，訂單量近幾個月來已穩定在 15% 左右。同時，油輪報廢率低意味著船隊繼續老化，全球油輪船隊的平均船齡為 25 年，最高為 14 年。

Should tanker market conditions worsen, that could be increased pressure on the large and growing pool of scrap candidates to leave the market, providing a mechanism to rebalance the global fleet.

如果油輪市場狀況惡化，這可能會增加大量報廢船舶退出市場的壓力，從而提供一種重新平衡全球船隊的機制。

We believe the combination of the current order book, an aging tanker fleet, and constraints on available yard space points towards a balanced fleet supply outlook and should result in continued low levels of tanker fleet growth over the medium term.

我們認為，目前的訂單量、老化的油輪船隊以及可用碼頭空間的限制等因素共同決定了船隊供應前景將趨於平衡，並將導致中期內油輪船隊增長持續處於低位。

While underlying tango market fundamentals look positive, a number of geopolitical factors add complexity to the outlook and will likely influence the direction of spot tanker rates. I'll not go into each point in detail, but I note that in September alone. We expect that the OPEC plus group will complete the unwinding of the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary supply cuts.

儘管探戈市場的基本面看起來是正面的，但一些地緣政治因素增加了前景的複雜性，並可能影響現貨油輪運價的走向。我不會詳細討論每一點，但我僅在九月就注意到了這一點。我們預計，OPEC+產油國將完成每日220萬桶的自願減產。

The EU will introduce a new price cap of 47 from $0.60 per barrel on Russian crude oil exports. President Trump's 50-day ultimatum to Russia is set to expire, though this time later. Could be moved up given Trump's recent comments, and as we saw yesterday, the US just announced sanctions on additional 50 vessels moving Iranian crude oil.

歐盟將對俄羅斯原油出口實施新的價格上限，從每桶0.60美元提高到47美元。川普總統向俄羅斯發出的 50 天最後通牒即將到期，不過這次到期時間較晚。鑑於川普最近的言論，制裁可能會提前，正如我們昨天看到的，美國剛剛宣布對另外 50 艘運輸伊朗原油的船隻實施制裁。

As such, we anticipate that the market will continue to exhibit volatility going forward both in the short and medium term.

因此，我們預期市場在短期和中期內都會持續呈現波動。

Turning to slide seven, we highlight how TK Tanker's continues to build value while remaining patient for future fleet renewal. With our operating leverage and low free cash flow break evens of $13,000 per day, TK Tankers generated $128 million in free cash flow in the first half of the year. With no debt on our balance sheet, the company continues to build its financial strength and flexibility.

翻到第七張幻燈片，我們重點介紹 TK Tanker 如何在保持耐心等待未來船隊更新的同時繼續創造價值。憑藉我們的經營槓桿和每天 13,000 美元的低自由現金流盈虧平衡點，TK Tankers 在上半年產生了 1.28 億美元的自由現金流。由於我們的資產負債表上沒有債務，公司繼續增強其財務實力和靈活性。

Looking ahead, the company is well positioned to continue generating free cash flows to emphasize for every $5000 increase in spot rates above our break even produces $1.89 per share of annual free cash flow or over 4% on a free cash flow yield basis.

展望未來，該公司已做好準備繼續產生自由現金流，強調現貨價格每增加 5,000 美元，超過我們的盈虧平衡點，每股將產生 1.89 美元的年度自由現金流，或超過 4% 的自由現金流收益率。

In summary, TK Tanker's is an operating company in a cyclical capital-intensive business. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation as our financial strength positions the company well for future fleet renewal while enabling us to continue to build value in a complex tanker market outlook.

綜上所述，TK Tanker 是一家從事週期性資本密集業務的營運公司。我們在資本配置方面保持嚴謹，因為我們的財務實力使公司能夠很好地應對未來的船隊更新，同時使我們能夠在複雜的油輪市場前景中繼續創造價值。

In the near term, with low cash flow break even, we expect to continue generating strong cash flows and taking incremental steps on fleet renewal while returning capital to shareholders. With that operator, we're now available to take questions.

短期內，在現金流低且實現損益平衡的情況下，我們預計將繼續產生強勁的現金流，並逐步更新船隊，同時向股東返還資本。有了這個接線員，我們現在就可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Omar Nokta from Jefferies

Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta

Hi Kenneth. Hi guys, good morning, thanks for the update. Just wanted to, yeah, I just wanted to ask quickly, maybe if you wouldn't mind just expanding on the comments you made early in the presentation you're referencing the purchasing of the latest ship and then some of the sales you did and you mentioned that you would be looking to change the pace given the need to renew.

你好，肯尼斯。大家好，早安，感謝您的更新。只是想，是的，我只是想快速問一下，也許如果您不介意擴展您在演示早期所做的評論，您提到購買最新的船舶，然後是您做的一些銷售，並且您提到您會考慮改變步伐，因為需要更新。

And so, I just wanted a bit more clarity is you talking about accelerating the pace of acquisitions or maybe right sizing the ratio between purchasing and selling?

因此，我只是想更清楚地了解一下，您是在談論加快收購步伐，還是在談論正確調整購買和銷售之間的比例？

Yeah, morning, Omar. Thanks for that question. I think what we wanted to point out as everybody can see, we've been fairly active in selling some of our older ships in the first half of this year. So, we sold a total of 11 ships and then at the same time we've started picking up a couple of younger ships last year, we picked up a couple of Aframax's.

是的，早上好，奧馬爾。謝謝你的提問。我想我們想指出的是，正如大家所看到的，我們在今年上半年一直積極出售一些老舊船隻。因此，我們總共售出了 11 艘船，同時，我們去年開始收購幾艘較新的船，也收購了幾艘阿芙拉型油輪。

We did a Suezmax now and then we simplified the ownership structure around the VLCC that we own 50% off. So, the point that we're making here is that I think. We said that the selling is lastly done for now and what we're looking to do is we are going to recycle a lot of the capital that we will be collecting from those sales and gradually start adding newer ships to the fleet again.

我們時常會做蘇伊士型油輪，然後我們簡化了 VLCC 的所有權結構，我們擁有 VLCC 50% 的股份。所以，我們在這裡要表達的觀點是，我認為。我們說過，現在出售工作終於完成了，我們想要做的是，我們將回收從這些出售中獲得的大量資金，並逐步開始向船隊中再次添加更新的船隻。

Okay, thank you, and you mentioned the opportunistic transaction to take the full ownership of the VLCC. You've also got, I guess the opportunistic stake in Ardmore, giving you exposure to MRs and obviously have your bread and butter so as not that for Max.

好的，謝謝，您提到了機會交易，以完全擁有 VLCC。我想，您還擁有阿德莫爾的機會主義股份，這讓您有機會接觸 MR，並且顯然可以維持生計，這樣 Max 就不會有這樣的機會了。

How are you thinking about, further capital deployment as you renew the fleet? Are you looking within the same, your main asset class, or do you look, towards a larger or perhaps a smaller segments?

在更新船隊時，您如何考慮進一步的資本部署？您是在關注相同的主要資產類別，還是關注更大或更小的細分市場？

Yeah, I would say our number one priority is finding good purchase candidates, within our core segments of Aframax's and Suezmax.

是的，我想說我們的首要任務是在阿芙拉型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪這兩個核心領域內找到合適的收購對象。

We, of course, looking at where we are and trying to square, making sense of selling it at what we think are quite strong prices for the older assets and then recycling the capital into younger assets where we can find good value and there's some relative price movements there and we think that they are the odd opportunities that allows us to kind of create a positive arbitrage on that.

當然，我們會考慮我們所處的位置，並試圖平衡，以我們認為相當強勁的價格出售舊資產，然後將資本回收到較新的資產中，我們可以在其中找到良好的價值，並且存在一些相對的價格變動，我們認為它們是奇怪的機會，可以讓我們在此基礎上創造積極的套利。

So, in the near term, I think that you will see us finding single vessels in our core segments, Aframax's and Suezmax, and over the medium term, we might be, going in a little bit bigger with new buildings, if you think that that's the right time or we may be looking at all the asset classes. But the priority right now and in the near term here is really just reloading on our core asset classes.

因此，在短期內，我認為你會看到我們在我們的核心領域，阿芙拉型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪中找到單艘船隻，而在中期內，我們可能會建造更大的新船，如果你認為那是合適的時機，或者我們可能會考慮所有的資產類別。但目前和短期內的首要任務其實只是重新載入我們的核心資產類別。

Okay, very good and very clear. Thank, thanks, Kenneth. I'll pass it back.

好的，非常好，非常清楚。謝謝，謝謝，肯尼斯。我會把它傳回去。

Appreciate it. Thanks Omar.

非常感謝。謝謝奧馬爾。

Ken Hexter with Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ken Hexter。

And Ken, are you there? Do you perhaps have your mute function button on?

肯，你在那裡嗎？您是否開啟了靜音功能按鈕？

Hi, this is Tim Chang on for Ken Hexter with DFA you mentioned the OPEC plus unwinding production cuts in September and increase in non-OPEC production in the Atlantic basin as favourable for demand uplift later in the year. Do you see this lifting rates mainly in 4Q just given that rate softening due to seasonality in the third quarter?

大家好，我是 DFA 的 Ken Hexter 的 Tim Chang，您提到了 OPEC 以及 9 月份解除減產以及大西洋盆地非 OPEC 國家產量增加，這有利於今年稍後需求的提升。您是否認為，由於第三季季節性因素導致利率下降，這次利率調漲主要發生在第四季？

Yeah, hi, it's Christian here. Yeah, we Definitely seeing more oil volumes coming on the market later in the year with OPEC plus. It's not just the production increase, but the fact that the Middle Eastern countries have been keeping more oil domestically during the summer months for power generation.

是的，嗨，我是克里斯蒂安。是的，在歐佩克的推動下，我們肯定會在今年稍後看到更多的石油進入市場。這不僅是產量的增加，而且中東國家在夏季一直在國內儲存更多的石油用於發電。

So, as we get through the summer and probably into September, we should see more Middle East volumes hitting the water, and then we do expect more oil coming from Guyana and Brazil in the second half as well. And we still have the normal seasonality in tanker rates, the the summer months, as we've seen in the last couple of months here tend to be a bit flatter and the winter do tend to be seasonally stronger months.

因此，隨著夏季的到來以及可能進入 9 月份，我們應該會看到更多中東石油流入海面，我們預計下半年將會有更多來自圭亞那和巴西的石油流入海面。而且油輪運價仍然具有正常的季節性，正如我們在過去幾個月看到的那樣，夏季月份的運價趨於平穩，而冬季月份的運價往往是季節性較強的月份。

So, with more export volumes coming online in the second half and also some of the geopolitical complexities as well that Kenneth touched on in terms of more sanctions on Russia and Iran, which just makes trade in general less efficient. We certainly think that there will be some more volatility and stronger rates as we go into the latter part of the year.

因此，隨著下半年出口量的增加，以及肯尼斯提到的對俄羅斯和伊朗實施更多製裁等地緣政治複雜因素，整體降低了貿易效率。我們當然認為，進入下半年，市場波動性將進一步加劇，利率也將進一步走高。

Got it, thank you. And then secondly, other revenues stepped up materially to $42 million from around $33 million last quarter. How should we think about run rate going forward there?

知道了，謝謝。其次，其他收入從上一季的 3,300 萬美元大幅增加至 4,200 萬美元。我們該如何看待未來的運作率？

Yeah, hi, this is, Brody. Yeah, the other revenues were a bit higher this quarter because we had a one-time, restructuring charge in our Australian business that was, funded by one of our customers for an FPSO that, the contract had expired on. So, it's about $6 million higher this quarter than it otherwise would be because of that. So, that was a a flow through cost to TK.

是的，你好，我是布羅迪。是的，本季度其他收入略高，因為我們在澳洲業務中有一筆一次性重組費用，由我們的一位客戶為 FPSO 提供資金，但合約已經到期。因此，本季的營收比平時高出約 600 萬美元。所以，這是流向 TK 的代價。

Got it very clear, thank you for taking my question.

非常清楚，感謝您回答我的問題。

And there are no further questions in the queue at this moment. I'll turn the conference back over to the company for any additional or closing remarks.

目前隊列中沒有其他問題。我將把會議交還給公司，以便發表任何補充或結束語。

Well, thank you very much for tuning into our call this morning and we look forward to reporting back to you next quarter. Have a great day.

好吧，非常感謝您今天早上收聽我們的電話會議，我們期待下個季度向您報告。祝你有美好的一天。

And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。