賽默飛世爾科技 (TMO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Thermo Fisher Scientific 2022 Fourth Quarter Conference Call. My name is Breika, and I will be your event specialist running today's call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加賽默飛世爾科技 2022 年第四季電話會議。我叫 Breika，我將是主持今天電話會議的活動專家。 （操作員說明）

I would like to introduce our moderator for the call, Mr. Rafael Tejada, Vice President, Investor Relations. Mr. Tejada, you may begin your call.

我想介紹我們的電話會議主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Rafael Tejada 先生。特賈達先生，您可以開始通話了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today is Marc Casper, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Stephen Williamson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please note this call is being webcast live and will be archived on the Investors section of our website, thermofisher.com, under the heading News & Events until February 17, 2023. A copy of the press release of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings is available in the Investors section of our website under the heading Financials.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天與我通話的是我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Marc Casper；和資深副總裁兼財務長史蒂芬·威廉森。請注意，本次電話會議正在進行網路直播，並將存檔在我們網站Thermofisher.com 投資者部分的「新聞與活動」標題下，直至2023 年2 月17 日。的新聞稿副本收益可在我們網站的投資者部分的「財務」標題下查看。

So before we begin, let me briefly cover our safe harbor statement. Various remarks that we may make about the company's future expectations, plans and prospects constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which are on file with the SEC and available in the Investors section of our website under the heading Financials, SEC Filings.

因此，在開始之前，讓我先簡單介紹一下我們的安全港聲明。我們可能對公司的未來預期、計劃和前景所做的各種評論構成前瞻性陳述，以符合1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中的安全港條款。結果存在重大差異由於各種重要因素而導致的報表，包括公司最近的10-K 表格年度報告和隨後的10-Q 表格季度報告中討論的內容，這些因素均已向SEC 備案，並可在我們網站的投資者部分查看在「財務」、「美國證券交易委員會備案」標題下。

While we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our estimates change. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date subsequent to today.

雖然我們可能選擇在未來某個時候更新前瞻性陳述，但我們特別聲明不承擔任何這樣做的義務，即使我們的估計發生變化。因此，您不應依賴這些前瞻性陳述來代表我們截至今天之後任何日期的觀點。

Also during this call, we will be referring to certain financial measures not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the press release of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings and also in the Investors section of our website under the heading Financials.

此外，在本次電話會議中，我們也將提及某些未依照公認會計原則（GAAP）所製定的財務指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳可在我們第四季和 2022 年全年收益的新聞稿中以及我們網站的「投資者」部分的「財務」標題下找到。

So with that, I'll now turn the call over to Marc.

因此，我現在將把電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Raf. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for our fourth quarter call and a wrap-up of a truly exceptional year for Thermo Fisher Scientific. We delivered another quarter of outstanding results in Q4. And as I reflect on the year, three things stand out to me.

謝謝你，拉夫。大家早安，感謝您今天參加我們的第四季電話會議，並對賽默飛世爾科技真正非凡的一年進行總結。我們在第四季又取得了出色的業績。當我回顧這一年時，有三件事對我來說很突出。

Our proven growth strategy continues to drive significant share gain. Our differentiated customer value proposition is further elevating our trusted partner status with our customers. And this, in combination with the power of our PPI Business System, drove outstanding financial performance for the quarter and full year, exceeding our ambitious goals.

我們行之有效的成長策略持續推動市場佔有率的大幅成長。我們差異化的客戶價值主張進一步提升了我們在客戶中值得信賴的合作夥伴地位。這與我們 PPI 業務系統的力量相結合，推動了本季和全年的出色財務業績，超越了我們雄心勃勃的目標。

Our ability to deliver these results in a year that included global supply chain disruptions, a war in Ukraine, COVID-19 lockdowns in China and inflationary headwinds wouldn't be possible without the incredible dedication of our team around the world. I'm very grateful for our team's great execution in effectively navigating dynamic times and enabling the success of our company and our customers. Thanks to our colleagues, our company delivered a spectacular 2022. And I couldn't be more excited for 2023.

如果沒有我們世界各地團隊的令人難以置信的奉獻精神，我們不可能在一年內取得這些成果，其中包括全球供應鏈中斷、烏克蘭戰爭、中國的新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 封鎖以及通膨逆風。我非常感謝我們的團隊在有效駕馭動態時代並幫助我們公司和客戶取得成功方面的出色執行力。感謝我們的同事，我們公司在 2022 年取得了輝煌的業績。

I'll get into more of the details in my remarks later. But first, let me recap the financials. Starting with the quarter, our revenue grew 7% to $11.45 billion. Our adjusted operating income was $2.56 billion. And we delivered another quarter of strong adjusted EPS performance, achieving $5.40 per share.

我將在稍後的發言中詳細介紹更多細節。但首先，讓我回顧一下財務狀況。從本季開始，我們的營收成長了 7%，達到 114.5 億美元。調整後的營業收入為 25.6 億美元。我們又一個季度實現了強勁的調整後每股收益表現，達到每股 5.40 美元。

Turning to our results for the full year. We grew revenue by 15% to $44.92 billion in 2022. Adjusted operating income was $10.99 billion and adjusted EPS, $23.24 per share. Let me turn to our end markets. We continued to deliver excellent and differentiated performance in Q4. This was driven by a continuation of good market conditions and outstanding execution from our global team, resulting in meaningful share gain.

轉向我們全年的業績。 2022 年，我們的營收成長了 15%，達到 449.2 億美元。 調整後的營業收入為 109.9 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 23.24 美元。讓我談談我們的終端市場。我們在第四季繼續提供卓越且差異化的業績。這是由於持續良好的市場狀況和我們全球團隊的出色執行力所推動的，從而帶來了可觀的份額成長。

Let me now give you some color for the quarter and the year. Starting with our largest end market, pharma and biotech. We continued to deliver impressive performance with growth in the low-teens for the quarter and mid-teens for the full year. Our differentiated customer value proposition is further elevating our trusted partner status with our pharma and biotech customers. Throughout the year, we had broad-based strength across our businesses serving this end market, highlighted by our bioproduction, pharma services, chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses as well as the research and safety market channel.

現在讓我為您介紹一下本季和本年度的情況。從我們最大的終端市場——製藥和生物技術開始。我們持續取得令人印象深刻的業績，本季的成長幅度為十幾歲，全年的成長幅度為十幾歲。我們差異化的客戶價值主張進一步提升了我們在製藥和生技客戶中值得信賴的合作夥伴地位。全年，我們在服務於此終端市場的業務中擁有廣泛的實力，特別是我們的生物生產、製藥服務、色譜和質譜業務以及研究和安全市場管道。

In academic and government, we grew in the mid-single digits for both the quarter and for the full year. We delivered strong growth across a range of our businesses, including biosciences, electron microscopy, chromatography and mass spectrometry as well as in the research and safety market channel. In industrial and applied, we grew in the low-teens for the quarter and mid-teens for the full year. During the year, we delivered strong growth in our electron microscopy and chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses.

在學術和政府領域，我們本季和全年均實現了中個位數成長。我們的一系列業務實現了強勁成長，包括生物科學、電子顯微鏡、色譜和質譜以及研究和安全市場管道。在工業和應用領域，我們本季的成長速度為十幾歲，全年的成長速度為十幾歲。這一年，我們的電子顯微鏡、色譜和質譜業務實現了強勁成長。

And finally, in diagnostics and health care. In Q4, revenue was approximately 40% lower than the prior year quarter and 25% lower than full year 2021. The team delivered good core business growth during the year, led by our microbiology and transplant diagnostic businesses as well as our health care market channel.

最後，在診斷和醫療保健方面。第四季度，營收比去年同期下降約40%，比2021 年全年下降25%。的核心業務成長。

I'll now turn to our growth strategy, which is delivering differentiated performance and setting us up for an even brighter future. As a reminder, our strategy consists of three pillars: developing high-impact innovative new products; leveraging our scale in high-growth and emerging markets; and delivering a unique value proposition to our customers.

現在我將談談我們的成長策略，即提供差異化的績效並為我們創造更光明的未來。提醒一下，我們的策略由三個支柱組成：開發高影響力的創新新產品；利用我們在高成長和新興市場的規模；並為我們的客戶提供獨特的價值主張。

Starting with the first pillar. It was another terrific year of high-impact innovation as we launched outstanding new products across our businesses that strengthen our industry leadership by enabling our customers to break new ground in their important work. In chromatography and mass spectrometry, our innovations are accelerating our customers' research and unlocking deeper analytical insights.

從第一個支柱開始。這是具有高影響力的創新的又一個精彩的一年，我們在各個業務領域推出了出色的新產品，使我們的客戶在其重要工作中取得新突破，從而增強了我們的行業領導地位。在色譜和質譜領域，我們的創新正在加速客戶的研究並釋放更深入的分析見解。

In 2022, we extended our industry-leading Thermo Scientific Orbitrap portfolio, launching the Orbitrap Ascend Tribrid mass spectrometer to advance proteomics, metabolomics and cancer biomarker research. We also launched the Thermo Scientific TRACE 1600 Series Gas Chromatograph to advance analytical testing for food, environmental, industrial and pharmaceutical applications.

2022 年，我們擴展了業界領先的 Thermo Scientific Orbitrap 產品組合，推出了 Orbitrap Ascend Tribrid 質譜儀，以推進蛋白質組學、代謝組學和癌症生物標記研究。我們也推出了 Thermo Scientific TRACE 1600 系列氣相層析儀，以推進食品、環境、工業和製藥應用的分析測試。

In electron microscopy, the new Thermo Scientific Glacios 2 Cryo-TEM was launched during the fourth quarter. It will help our customers accelerate structure-based drug discovery for debilitating disorders such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and Huntington's diseases as well as research for cancer and gene mutations.

在電子顯微鏡領域，新型 Thermo Scientific Glacios 2 Cryo-TEM 在第四季度推出。它將幫助我們的客戶加速針對阿茲海默症、帕金森氏症和亨廷頓氏症等衰弱性疾病的基於結構的藥物發現，以及癌症和基因突變的研究。

We also continue to build on our genetic sciences capabilities to help our customers understand, diagnose and treat disease. During the fourth quarter, our SeCore CDx HLA Sequencing System was granted marketing authorization by the U.S. FDA for use as a companion diagnostic with a T cell receptor therapy for adults with ocular melanoma.

我們也持續增強我們的遺傳科學能力，幫助我們的客戶了解、診斷和治療疾病。第四季度，我們的 SeCore CDx HLA 定序系統獲得了美國 FDA 的上市許可，可用作成人眼部黑色素瘤 T 細胞受體治療的伴隨診斷。

This is a really nice example of how our Specialty Diagnostics business is benefiting from our capabilities in Life Sciences Solutions. In addition, we expanded our PCR test menu to leverage our incredibly large installed base of instruments and launched the TrueMark Infectious Disease Research Panels for rapid detection and research of infectious disease pathogens.

這是我們的專業診斷業務如何受益於我們在生命科學解決方案方面的能力的一個很好的例子。此外，我們擴展了 PCR 測試菜單，以利用我們極其龐大的儀器安裝基礎，並推出了 TrueMark 傳染病研究面板，用於快速檢測和研究傳染病病原體。

To wrap up the innovation highlights, we added to our cell and gene therapy offering, most recently launching the Gibco CTS DynaCellect Magnetic Separation System. Our solutions are helping customers advance their cell and gene therapy programs. So another spectacular year of innovation. And we have an exciting pipeline of launches in 2023 and beyond.

為了總結創新亮點，我們增加了細胞和基因療法產品，最近推出了 Gibco CTS DynaCellect 磁力分離系統。我們的解決方案正在幫助客戶推進他們的細胞和基因治療計劃。這又是創新的一年。我們將在 2023 年及以後推出一系列令人興奮的產品。

The second pillar of our growth strategy is leveraging our scale in high-growth and emerging markets to create a differentiated experience for our customers. We continued to strengthen our capabilities serving these markets during the year. And I'll highlight a recent example. In the quarter, we opened a new cGMP biologics and sterile manufacturing facility in Hangzhou, China, which provides integrated clinical and commercial drug substance and drug product capabilities to help customers in China and in the Asia-Pacific region deliver patient therapies more quickly.

我們成長策略的第二個支柱是利用我們在高成長和新興市場的規模為客戶創造差異化的體驗。我們在這一年中繼續加強服務這些市場的能力。我將重點介紹一個最近的例子。本季度，我們在中國杭州開設了一家新的 cGMP 生物製劑和無菌生產工廠，提供整合的臨床和商業原料藥及藥品生產能力，幫助中國和亞太地區的客戶更快地為患者提供治療。

Turning to the third pillar of our growth strategy. We continue to enhance our customer value proposition by strengthening our capabilities. We've been executing on the significant investments we've made over the past couple of years. And throughout 2022, we brought new capacity and capabilities online for pharma services, bioproduction and clinical research services. Most recently, during the fourth quarter, we opened a new state-of-the-art bioanalytical lab in Richmond, Virginia to support our clinical research business and the increasing demand for our laboratory services to accelerate drug development.

轉向我們成長策略的第三個支柱。我們繼續透過增強我們的能力來提高我們的客戶價值主張。我們一直在執行過去幾年所做的重大投資。 2022 年全年，我們為製藥服務、生物生產和臨床研究服務帶來了新的線上產能和能力。最近，在第四季度，我們在維吉尼亞州里士滿開設了一個新的最先進的生物分析實驗室，以支持我們的臨床研究業務以及對加速藥物開發的實驗室服務日益增長的需求。

As always, our PPI Business System enabled our success during the year. It's helping us to drive meaningful share gain, maximize the return on investments, meet our customers' needs and successfully navigate a dynamic environment, including effectively addressing inflation and global supply chain challenges. PPI engages and empowers all of our colleagues to find a better way every day and enables outstanding execution.

一如既往，我們的 PPI 業務系統使我們在這一年取得了成功。它幫助我們推動有意義的份額成長，最大限度地提高投資回報，滿足客戶的需求並成功應對動態環境，包括有效應對通貨膨脹和全球供應鏈挑戰。 PPI 讓我們所有的同事每天都能找到更好的方法並賦予他們權力，並實現出色的執行力。

We continue to successfully execute our capital deployment strategy, which is a combination of strategic M&A and return of capital to our shareholders. In 2022, we successfully integrated PPD, our clinical research business. For the full year, PPD delivered core organic growth in the high-teens, generating over $7 billion in revenue and contributing over $2 to our adjusted earnings per share.

我們繼續成功執行我們的資本部署策略，該策略是策略併購和向股東資本回報的結合。 2022年，我們成功整合了臨床研究業務PPD。全年，PPD 實現了十數十億美元的核心有機成長，創造了超過 70 億美元的收入，為我們調整後的每股盈餘貢獻了超過 2 美元。

The combination of a great per share performance and excellent progress on our synergy realization is delivering very strong returns for our shareholders that is well ahead of the deal model. From a customer lens, the acquisition has further elevated our trusted partner status as customers are realizing significant value in partnering with our team to advance a scientific idea to an approved medicine.

出色的每股業績和實現協同效應的出色進展相結合，為我們的股東帶來了遠遠領先於交易模式的強勁回報。從客戶的角度來看，此次收購進一步提升了我們值得信賴的合作夥伴地位，因為客戶認識到與我們的團隊合作將科學理念轉化為批准的藥物的巨大價值。

In 2022, we also returned $3.5 billion of capital to our shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends. And on the first business day of 2023, we completed the acquisition of The Binding Site, a leading specialty diagnostics company. The Binding Site is an exciting addition and highly complementary to our Specialty Diagnostic business. Together, we'll be able to advance the diagnosis and management of patients afflicted with multiple myeloma and immune disorders.

2022年，我們也透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了35億美元的資本。在 2023 年的第一個工作日，我們完成了對領先的專業診斷公司 The Binding Site 的收購。結合位點是一個令人興奮的補充，並且與我們的專業診斷業務高度互補。我們將共同推動多發性骨髓瘤和免疫疾病患者的診斷和治療。

Reflecting on our progress of our ESG priorities in 2022, we further advanced our environmental and philanthropic efforts while also continuing to strengthen our company culture. During the year, we continued to advance our environmental sustainability road map, reducing our carbon emissions and finalizing significant power purchasing agreements to accelerate our transition towards 100% renewable energy. Looking forward, we've also increased our 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target to achieve a 50% reduction in this decade.

回顧 2022 年我們在 ESG 優先事項方面的進展，我們進一步推進了環境和慈善事業，同時繼續強化我們的公司文化。年內，我們繼續推動環境永續發展路線圖，減少碳排放並敲定重要的電力採購協議，以加速向 100% 再生能源轉型。展望未來，我們也提高了 2030 年溫室氣體減量目標，以在這十年內實現 50% 的減排。

Through our Foundation for Science, we continued to advance our philanthropic efforts and supported students across the globe during the year with our STEM education programs. This included an announcement in the quarter for the Thermo Fisher Scientific Junior Innovators Challenge, the premier middle school STEM competition in the U.S.

透過我們的科學基金會，我們繼續推進我們的慈善事業，並在這一年透過我們的 STEM 教育計畫為全球各地的學生提供支持。其中包括本季宣布的 Thermo Fisher Scientific 青少年創新者挑戰賽，這是美國首屈一指的中學 STEM 競賽。

And throughout the year, Thermo Fisher Scientific was recognized for its industry leadership and inclusive culture. This includes earning 100% score on the Human Rights Campaign 2022 Corporate Equality Index for LGBTQ equality for the seventh consecutive year as well as inclusion on Fortune's list of the World's Most Admired Companies. In the quarter, we were recognized by Forbes Magazine as one of the World's Top Female-Friendly Companies and one of America's Best Employers For Veterans. As I reflect on the year, I'm very proud of what our team accomplished. 2022 is a special year for Thermo Fisher. And I'm excited about 2023 and beyond.

全年，賽默飛世爾科技因其行業領導力和包容性文化而獲得認可。這包括連續第七年在 LGBTQ 平等人權運動 2022 年企業平等指數中獲得 100% 得分，以及入選《財富》全球最受尊敬企業名單。本季度，我們被《富比士》雜誌評為全球最佳女性友善公司之一和美國退伍軍人最佳雇主之一。當我回顧這一年時，我對我們團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。 2022 年對賽默飛來說是特別的一年。我對 2023 年及以後感到興奮。

Stephen will outline the assumptions that factor into our revenue and earnings guidance. But let me quickly cover the highlights. We're initiating 2023 revenue guidance of $45.3 billion and adjusted EPS guidance of $23.70 per share. This very strong financial outlook reflects a continuation of our track record of delivering excellent financial performance and sustainable value creation for all of our stakeholders.

史蒂芬將概述影響我們收入和獲利指導的假設。但讓我快速介紹一下重點內容。我們啟動的 2023 年營收指引為 453 億美元，調整後每股盈餘指引為 23.70 美元。這種非常強勁的財務前景反映了我們為所有利害關係人提供卓越財務表現和可持續價值創造的良好記錄的延續。

So to summarize our key takeaways for 2022. Our proven growth strategy continues to drive significant share gain. Our differentiated customer value proposition is further elevating our trusted partner status. And this, in combination with the power of our PPI Business System, drove outstanding financial performance for the quarter and full year, exceeding our ambitious goals while navigating a very dynamic macro environment. And we enter 2023 with strong momentum, and we're incredibly well positioned beyond 2023.

總結我們 2022 年的主要收穫。我們差異化的客戶價值主張進一步提升了我們值得信賴的合作夥伴地位。這與我們 PPI 業務系統的力量相結合，推動了本季和全年的出色財務業績，超越了我們雄心勃勃的目標，同時適應了非常活躍的宏觀環境。我們以強勁的勢頭進入 2023 年，並且在 2023 年之後我們將處於令人難以置信的有利位置。

With that, I'll now hand the call over to our CFO, Stephen Williamson. Stephen?

現在，我將把電話轉交給我們的財務長史蒂芬威廉森。史蒂芬？

Thanks, Marc, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in our press release, in Q4, we delivered an outstanding quarter, capping off another excellent year.

謝謝，馬克，大家早安。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，在第四季度，我們交付了出色的季度，為另一個出色的一年畫上了句號。

For the quarter and the full year, we delivered 14% core organic revenue growth. This differentiated level of performance demonstrates the power of our growth strategy and the trusted partner status that we've earned with our customers. In addition, in Q4, we generated $370 million of COVID-19 testing revenue, $3.1 billion for the full year.

本季和全年，我們實現了 14% 的核心有機收入成長。這種差異化的績效水準證明了我們成長策略的力量以及我們與客戶贏得的值得信賴的合作夥伴地位。此外，在第四季度，我們產生了 3.7 億美元的 COVID-19 檢測收入，全年為 31 億美元。

Taking a step back and thinking about the top line performance for the year, I'm really proud of what the team delivered. We offset $4.2 billion less testing revenue, which was a headwind of over 10%, and still delivered slightly positive organic growth for the year. That's a great accomplishment.

退後一步，想想今年的營收表現，我對團隊所取得的成績感到非常自豪。我們抵銷了 42 億美元的測試收入減少（超過 10% 的阻力），但今年仍實現了小幅正有機成長。這是一項偉大的成就。

Then using the power of the PPI Business System, we were able to translate the top line strength to excellent adjusted EPS and cash flow results. In Q4, we delivered $0.23 more adjusted EPS than our prior guide, ending the year at $23.24 and delivered $6.94 billion of free cash flow, all while continuing to invest in the business to enable an even brighter future. So 2022 was another excellent year.

然後，利用 PPI 業務系統的強大功能，我們能夠將營收實力轉化為出色的調整後每股收益和現金流結果。第四季度，我們的調整後每股收益比先前的指導值高出 0.23 美元，年末達到 23.24 美元，並實現了 69.4 億美元的自由現金流，同時繼續投資於業務，以實現更光明的未來。所以 2022 年又是極好的一年。

Let me now provide you with some details on our performance. Beginning with the earnings results. As I mentioned, we delivered $5.40 of adjusted EPS in Q4 and $23.24 for the full year. GAAP EPS in the quarter was $4.01 and $17.63 for the full year.

現在讓我向您提供有關我們表現的一些詳細資訊。從盈利結果開始。正如我所提到的，我們在第四季度調整後每股收益為 5.40 美元，全年調整後每股收益為 23.24 美元。該季度的 GAAP 每股收益為 4.01 美元，全年的 GAAP 每股收益為 17.63 美元。

On the top line, as I mentioned, in Q4, we delivered 14% core organic revenue growth of $370 million of testing revenue. Reported revenue grew 7% year-over-year. The components of our Q4 reported revenue increase included 3% lower organic revenue, a 14% contribution from acquisitions and a headwind of 4% from foreign exchange. The full year core organic revenue growth was 14%. And we delivered $3.1 billion in testing revenue. For the full year 2022, reported revenue increased 15%. This includes slightly positive organic growth, an 18% contribution from acquisitions and a 3% headwind from foreign exchange.

正如我所提到的，在第四季度，我們的核心有機收入成長了 14%，測試收入達到 3.7 億美元。報告營收年增 7%。我們報告的第四季度營收成長的組成部分包括有機收入下降 3%、收購貢獻 14% 以及外匯帶來的 4% 阻力。全年核心有機收入成長 14%。我們實現了 31 億美元的測試收入。 2022 年全年，報告營收成長 15%。其中包括略顯積極的有機成長、收購帶來的 18% 貢獻以及外匯帶來的 3% 阻力。

Turn to our organic revenue performance by geography. The organic growth rates by region are skewed by the COVID-19 testing revenue in 2022 and the prior year. In Q4, North America grew in the low single digits; Europe declined in the low-teens; Asia Pacific in the mid-single digits with China declining in the mid-single digits; and the rest of the world declined high single digits.

看看我們按地理位置劃分的有機收入表現。各地區的有機成長率因 2022 年和前一年的 COVID-19 檢測收入而產生偏差。第四季度，北美地區實現低個位數成長；歐洲的經濟衰退幅度在十幾歲左右；亞太地區為中個位數，其中中國為中個位數下降；世界其他地區則出現高個位數下降。

For the full year, North America grew in the low single digits; Europe declined high single digits; Asia Pacific grew high single digits, including China, which also grew high single digits for the year; and the rest of the world declined high single digits. On a core organic growth basis, all regions had strong growth in 2022.

全年來看，北美地區的成長率為較低的個位數；歐洲出現高個位數下降；亞太地區實現了高個位數成長，其中包括中國，該地區今年也實現了高個位數成長；世界其他地區則出現高個位數下降。在核心有機成長的基礎上，所有地區 2022 年均實現強勁成長。

With respect to our operational performance, adjusted operating income in the quarter decreased 19% and adjusted operating margin was 22.4%, 710 basis points lower than Q4 last year. For the full year, adjusted operating income decreased 9% and adjusted operating margin was 24.5%, which is 650 basis points lower than 2021.

就我們的營運表現而言，本季調整後的營運收入下降了 19%，調整後的營運利潤率為 22.4%，比去年第四季下降了 710 個基點。全年調整後營業收入下降9%，調整後營業利益率為24.5%，較2021年下降650個基點。

For both the fourth quarter and full year, we achieved strong price realization to effectively address inflation while also delivering strong productivity. This was more than offset by lower testing volumes, continued strategic investments and the expected impact of incorporating PPD into our financials. For 2022, full year adjusted operating margin was 40 basis points lower than assumed in the prior guidance. 2/3 of this was due to business and currency mix and 1/3 due to one-time costs related to the runoff of testing revenue.

在第四季和全年，我們實現了強勁的價格實現，有效應對通貨膨脹，同時也提供了強勁的生產力。這被較低的測試量、持續的策略投資以及將 PPD 納入我們財務的預期影響所抵消。 2022 年全年調整後營業利益率比先前指引中的假設低 40 個基點。其中 2/3 歸因於業務和貨幣組合，1/3 歸因於與測試收入流失相關的一次性成本。

Total company adjusted gross margin in the quarter came in at 41.4%, 910 basis points lower than Q4 last year. For the full year, adjusted gross margin was 43.5%, down 810 basis points versus the prior year. For both the fourth quarter and the full year, the change in gross margin was due to the same drivers as those of our adjusted operating margin.

該季度公司調整後總毛利率為 41.4%，比去年第四季低 910 個基點。全年調整後毛利率為43.5%，較前一年下降810個基點。對於第四季和全年來說，毛利率的變化與我們調整後的營業利潤率的驅動因素相同。

Moving on to the details of the P&L. Adjusted SG&A in the quarter was 15.6% of revenue, an improvement of 170 basis points versus Q4 2021. For the full year, adjusted SG&A was 15.8% of revenue, an improvement of 130 basis points compared to 2021. Total R&D expense was $390 million in Q4. For the full year, R&D expense was $1.5 billion, representing 5% growth over the prior year, reflecting our ongoing investments in high-impact innovation. R&D as a percent of our manufacturing revenue was 7% in Q4, 6.4% for the full year.

繼續討論損益表的詳細資訊。本季調整後的SG&A 佔營收的15.6%，比2021 年第四季提高了170 個基點。億美元在第四季。全年研發費用為 15 億美元，比上年成長 5%，反映出我們對高影響力創新的持續投資。第四季研發佔製造收入的百分比為 7%，全年為 6.4%。

Looking at results below the line for the quarter. Our net interest expense was $119 million, which is $31 million favorable to Q4 last year. Net interest expense for the full year was $454 million, a decrease of $39 million from 2021. Adjusted other income expenses was a net expense in the quarter of $10 million compared to net income of $7 million in Q4 2021. The year-over-year variance is primarily due to changes in nonoperating FX. For the full year, adjusted other income and expense was a net income of $14 million, which is $24 million lower than the prior year.

看看本季線下的結果。我們的淨利息支出為 1.19 億美元，比去年第四季有利 3,100 萬美元。全年淨利息支出為 4.54 億美元，較 2021 年減少 3,900 萬美元。 調整後的其他收入支出為該季度的淨支出 1,000 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季的淨收入為 700 萬美元。是由於非營業外匯的變化所造成的。全年調整後的其他收入和支出為淨利潤 1,400 萬美元，比上年減少 2,400 萬美元。

Our adjusted tax rate in the quarter was 12.8%, which is 100 basis points lower than Q4 last year, reflecting the results of our tax planning activities. For the full year, the adjusted tax rate was 13% or 160 basis points lower than 2021. We repurchased $1 billion of shares in Q4, bringing our total repurchases for 2022 to $3 billion. Average diluted shares were 393 million in Q4, approximately 4 million lower year-over-year, driven by share repurchases net of option dilution.

我們本季調整後的稅率為12.8%，比去年第四季低100個基點，反映了我們稅務規劃活動的結果。全年調整後稅率為 13%，比 2021 年低 160 個基點。第四季平均稀釋後股票為 3.93 億股，年減約 400 萬股，這是由於扣除選擇權稀釋後的股票回購所致。

Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet. Full year cash flow from continuing operations was $9.15 billion. Free cash flow for the year was $6.94 billion after investing $2.2 billion of net capital expenditures. We returned $118 million to shareholders through dividends in the quarter and $455 million for the full year. We ended the quarter with $8.5 billion in cash and $34.5 billion of total debt. Our leverage ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.9x gross debt to adjusted EBITDA and 2.2x on a net debt basis. Concluding my comments on our total company performance, adjusted ROIC was 13.5%, reflecting the strong returns on investment that we're generating across the company.

轉向現金流和資產負債表。全年持續經營業務現金流量為 91.5 億美元。投資 22 億美元的淨資本支出後，全年自由現金流為 69.4 億美元。我們本季透過股息向股東返還 1.18 億美元，全年向股東返還 4.55 億美元。本季結束時，我們的現金為 85 億美元，債務總額為 345 億美元。截至本季末，我們的槓桿率為調整後 EBITDA 總負債的 2.9 倍，淨負債的槓桿率為 2.2 倍。總結我對公司整體績效的評論，調整後的投資報酬率為 13.5%，反映了我們在整個公司產生的強勁投資回報。

Now I'll provide some color on the performance of our four business segments. Let me start with a couple of framing comments. The scale and margin profile of our COVID-19 testing revenue varied by segment. And the testing revenue was significantly higher in the prior year. So that does skew some of the reported segment margins. We're executing strong pricing realization across all segments to address higher inflation. And we're referring to the acquired PPD business as our clinical research business. And that resides in the Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment. The anniversary date of the acquisition was December 8.

現在我將介紹我們四個業務部門的業績。讓我從一些框架性評論開始。我們的 COVID-19 測試收入的規模和利潤狀況因細分市場而異。而且測試收入比前一年明顯更高。因此，這確實扭曲了一些報告的部門利潤率。我們正在所有細分市場執行強而有力的定價措施，以應對通膨上升的問題。我們將收購的 PPD 業務稱為我們的臨床研究業務。這屬於實驗室產品和生物製藥服務領域。收購週年日為 12 月 8 日。

Moving on to the segment details, starting with Life Sciences Solutions. Q4 reported revenue in this segment declined 27% and organic revenue was 24% lower than the prior year quarter. In Q4, we delivered very strong growth in our bioproduction business. This was more than offset by the moderation in testing revenue in the segment versus the prior year quarter. For the full year, reported revenue in the segment declined 13% and organic revenue declined 12%.

繼續討論細分市場的詳細信息，從生命科學解決方案開始。第四季該部門的營收下降了 27%，有機收入比去年同期下降了 24%。第四季度，我們的生物生產業務實現了非常強勁的成長。與去年同期相比，該部門測試收入的放緩足以抵消這種影響。全年報告收入下降 13%，有機收入下降 12%。

Q4 adjusted operating income in Life Science Solutions decreased 48% and adjusted operating margin was 34.1%, down 14 percentage points versus the prior year quarter. In Q4, we had unfavorable volume mix due to the significantly higher testing revenue in the prior year quarter. And for the full year, adjusted operating income decreased 29% and adjusted operating margin was 41.2%, a decrease of 880 basis points versus 2021.

第四季生命科學解決方案調整後營業收入下降 48%，調整後營業利潤率為 34.1%，比去年同期下降 14 個百分點。在第四季度，由於上一季的測試收入顯著增加，我們的銷售組合不利。全年調整後營業收入下降 29%，調整後營業利益率為 41.2%，較 2021 年下降 880 個基點。

In the Analytical Instruments segment, reported revenue increased 9% in Q4 and organic growth was 14%. The strong growth in this segment this quarter was led by electron microscopy and the chromatography and mass spectrometry businesses. For the full year, reported revenue in the segment increased 9% and organic revenue increased 14%.

在分析儀器領域，第四季報告營收成長 9%，有機成長 14%。本季該領域的強勁成長是由電子顯微鏡以及色譜和質譜業務帶動的。全年報告營收成長 9%，有機收入成長 14%。

Q4 adjusted operating income in the segment increased 25% and adjusted operating margin was 25.4%, up 330 basis points year-over-year. In the quarter, we delivered strong volume pull-through and productivity. This was partially offset by strategic investments. For the full year, adjusted operating income increased 26% and adjusted operating margin was 22.8%, up 310 basis points versus 2021.

第四季該部門調整後營業收入成長 25%，調整後營業利益率為 25.4%，較去年同期成長 330 個基點。本季度，我們實現了強勁的銷量拉動和生產力。這被戰略投資部分抵消。全年調整後營業收入成長 26%，調整後營業利益率為 22.8%，較 2021 年成長 310 個基點。

Turning to our Specialty Diagnostics segment. In Q4, reported revenue declined 23% and organic revenue was 20% lower than the prior year quarter. In Q4, we continued to see strong underlying growth in the core led by our health care market channels and our transplant diagnostics and microbiology businesses. This was offset by lower COVID-19 testing revenue versus the year-ago quarter. For the full year, reported revenue in the segment decreased 16% and organic revenue was 13% lower than 2021.

轉向我們的專業診斷部分。第四季度，報告營收下降 23%，有機收入比去年同期下降 20%。第四季度，我們繼續看到以醫療保健市場管道以及移植診斷和微生物學業務為主導的核心業務強勁的潛在成長。這被 COVID-19 檢測收入較去年同期下降所抵消。全年來看，該部門的報告收入下降了 16%，有機收入比 2021 年下降了 13%。

Q4 adjusted operating income decreased 30% in the quarter and adjusted operating margin was 18.6%, down 190 basis points versus Q4 2021. During the quarter, we delivered strong productivity, which was more than offset by the impact of lower testing volume. For the full year, adjusted operating income decreased 20% and adjusted operating margin was 21.5%, down 110 basis points versus 2021.

第四季調整後營業收入下降了30%，調整後營業利潤率為18.6%，與2021 年第四季相比下降了190 個基點。下降的影響所抵消。全年調整後營業收入下降 20%，調整後營業利益率為 21.5%，較 2021 年下降 110 個基點。

And finally, in Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment. Q4 reported revenue increased 42%, organic growth was 11% and the impact of acquisitions was 35%. During Q4, organic revenue growth in this segment was led by the Pharma Services business. PPD, our clinical research business, continued to perform very well. And during the quarter, it delivered over 20% core organic revenue growth and contributed $1.9 billion of revenue to the segment. For the full year, reported revenue in the segment increased 51% and organic revenue increased 10%.

最後，在實驗室產品和生物製藥服務領域。第四季營收成長 42%，有機成長 11%，收購影響 35%。第四季度，該領域的有機收入成長由製藥服務業務帶動。我們的臨床研究業務 PPD 繼續表現出色。本季度，其核心有機收入成長超過 20%，為該細分市場貢獻了 19 億美元的收入。全年報告營收成長 51%，有機收入成長 10%。

Q4 adjusted operating income in the segment increased 73% and adjusted operating margin was 14.1%, which is 260 basis points higher than Q4 2021. In the quarter, we drove favorable business mix and delivered strong productivity and volume pull-through that was partially offset by strategic investments. For the full year, adjusted operating income increased 56% and adjusted operating margin was 12.8%, up 40 basis points versus 2021.

該部門第四季調整後營業收入成長73%，調整後營業利潤率為14.1%，比2021 年第四季高260 個基點。和銷售拉動，但這一結果被部分抵消透過策略投資。全年調整後營業收入成長 56%，調整後營業利益率為 12.8%，較 2021 年成長 40 個基點。

Let me now turn to our 2023 guidance. As Marc outlined, we're starting the year with a very strong financial outlook, consisting of revenue guidance of $45.3 billion and adjusted EPS guidance of $23.70. Let me provide some details of the underlying assumptions, starting with revenue. Our initial guidance for 2023 assumes 7% core organic revenue growth, $400 million in testing revenue, $250 million of revenue from acquisitions and a tailwind of $100 million from FX. This all assumes a return to more normal market growth conditions in 2023 in the range of 4% to 6%.

現在讓我談談我們 2023 年的指引。正如 Marc 所概述的，我們以非常強勁的財務前景開始今年，包括 453 億美元的收入指引和 23.70 美元的調整後每股盈餘指引。讓我提供一些基本假設的細節，從收入開始。我們對 2023 年的初步指引假設核心有機收入成長 7%，測試收入為 4 億美元，收購收入為 2.5 億美元，外匯帶來的收入為 1 億美元。這一切都假設 2023 年市場成長恢復到 4% 至 6% 的正常水準。

Within our core revenue, we expect $500 million of vaccines and therapies revenue in 2023. This is $1.2 billion less than 2022, a 3% impact on core organic growth. Even with this headwind, we are expecting to deliver 7% core organic revenue growth in 2023, demonstrating the strength of our initial outlook, the agility with which we're managing the business and the ongoing benefits of our growth strategy.

在我們的核心收入中，我們預計 2023 年疫苗和治療收入將達到 5 億美元。即使面臨這種逆風，我們預計 2023 年核心有機收入將實現 7% 的成長，這證明了我們最初展望的實力、我們管理業務的靈活性以及我們成長策略的持續效益。

Turning to profitability. In 2023, we're assuming an adjusted operating margin of 23.9%. This is 60 basis points lower than 2022, driven by 2 elements: a 40 basis points of core margin expansion; and 100 basis point headwind from the runoff of testing revenue. The year-over-year margin change is consistent with the comments I made on the last earnings call, when I described how to model the margin impact to the different elements of the year-over-year change in revenue.

轉向盈利能力。 2023 年，我們假設調整後營業利益率為 23.9%。這比 2022 年低 60 個基點，由兩個因素驅動：核心利潤率擴張 40 個基點；測試收入的減少帶來了 100 個基點的阻力。同比利潤率變化與我在上次財報電話會議上發表的評論一致，當時我描述瞭如何對收入同比變化的不同要素的利潤率影響進行建模。

In 2023, with the pandemic-related testing revenue behind us, I thought this would be a good opportunity to take a step back and take a multiyear view on our meaningful margin expansion progression. During -- starting in 2019 pre pandemic, excluding the impact of PPD, we're on track to expand operating margins 60 basis points a year on average through 2023, a 250 basis point improvement over the 4-year period. So great progress on margin expansion.

2023 年，隨著與大流行相關的測試收入的增長，我認為這將是一個很好的機會，可以退後一步，對我們有意義的利潤擴張進展進行多年的審視。從 2019 年大流行前開始，排除 PPD 的影響，我們預計在 2023 年之前將營業利潤率平均每年擴大 60 個基點，比 4 年期間提高 250 個基點。在利潤率擴張方面取得了巨大進展。

Turning to adjusted EPS. We expect to deliver $23.70 in 2023. This is a 2% year-over-year increase, consisting of a 10% headwind from testing, more than offset by a 12% increase driven by the core business. We're actively managing the whole P&L to effectively deal with the material runoff in testing and vaccines and therapies revenue and still grow our adjusted earnings per share for the year. This shows the strength of our growth strategy and the power of our PPI Business System.

轉向調整後的每股盈餘。我們預計 2023 年交付額為 23.70 美元。我們正在積極管理整個損益表，以有效應對測試以及疫苗和治療收入方面的材料流失，並繼續增加今年調整後的每股盈餘。這顯示了我們成長策略的優勢和 PPI 業務系統的力量。

Moving on to some more detailed assumptions behind the guide. With regards to FX, in 2023, we're assuming there's a year-over-year tailwind of approximately $100 million of revenue, or 0.2%, and $0.04 of adjusted EPS, also 0.2%. We're assuming that The Binding Site acquisition will contribute approximately $250 million to our reported revenue growth and $0.07 to adjusted EPS in 2023.

繼續討論指南背後的一些更詳細的假設。就外匯而言，我們假設 2023 年營收年增約 1 億美元（即 0.2%），調整後每股收益為 0.04 美元（即 0.2%）。我們假設收購 The Binding Site 將為我們報告的營收成長貢獻約 2.5 億美元，並為 2023 年調整後每股收益貢獻 0.07 美元。

Below the line, we expect net interest expense in 2023 to be approximately $480 million. This is approximately $25 million higher than 2022 and includes the funding for The Binding Site acquisition. We assume that the adjusted income tax rate will be 11% in 2023. The improvement from 2022 is driven by a tax planning initiative. We're expecting net capital expenditures will be approximately $2 billion in 2023 and free cash flow is assumed to be $6.9 billion for the year.

在此線之下，我們預計 2023 年的淨利息支出約為 4.8 億美元。這比 2022 年高出約 2,500 萬美元，其中包括收購 The Binding Site 的資金。我們假設 2023 年調整後的所得稅率為 11%。我們預計 2023 年淨資本支出約為 20 億美元，全年自由現金流預計為 69 億美元。

In terms of capital deployment, our guidance assumes $3 billion of share buybacks, which were already completed in January. We estimate the full year average diluted share count of approximately 388 million shares. We're assuming that we'll return approximately $540 million of capital to shareholders this year through dividends. And as is our normal convention, our guidance does not assume any future acquisitions or divestitures.

在資本部署方面，我們的指導假設回購股份金額為 30 億美元，該回購已於 1 月完成。我們估計全年平均稀釋後股數約為 3.88 億股。我們假設今年將透過股利向股東返還約 5.4 億美元的資本。按照我們的慣例，我們的指導意見不假設未來有任何收購或剝離。

And finally, I wanted to touch on quarterly phasing for the year. Revenue, adjusted operating margin and adjusted EPS are all expected to ramp up as we go through the year. This is due to several factors. Core organic revenue growth is expected to increase as we go through the year, largely due to the comps related to vaccines and therapies as well as the expected phasing of economic activity in China. The impact of the runoff in testing revenue is most pronounced in Q1. And the benefits of the offsetting cost actions are spread over the year.

最後，我想談談今年的季度階段。隨著今年的到來，收入、調整後的營業利潤率和調整後的每股盈餘預計都會上升。這是由於幾個因素造成的。預計今年核心有機收入成長將增加，這主要是由於與疫苗和療法相關的比較以及中國經濟活動的預期分階段。徑流對測試收入的影響在第一季最為明顯。抵銷成本行動的好處遍佈全年。

From a foreign exchange standpoint, while a slight tailwind for the year as a whole, in Q1, FX is expected to be a year-over-year headwind of approximately $200 million of revenue and $80 million of adjusted operating income. Below the line, net interest expense is expected to decrease during the year as we generate free cash flow and earn interest on that cash build. Putting all this together, for Q1, we expect core organic revenue growth to be in the mid-single digits, adjusted operating margin to be slightly lower than Q4 2022 and adjusted EPS to be just over 20% of the full year total.

從外匯角度來看，雖然全年整體略有順風，但第一季外匯預計將年比逆風，帶來約 2 億美元的收入和 8,000 萬美元的調整後營業收入。在此線以下，隨著我們產生自由現金流並透過現金累積賺取利息，淨利息支出預計將在年內減少。綜上所述，我們預期第一季核心有機營收成長將達到中個位數，調整後營業利潤率將略低於2022 年第四季，調整後每股盈餘將略高於全年總額的20 %。

So to wrap up, we had an excellent 2022, and we're really well positioned to continue to deliver differentiated performance for all our stakeholders in 2023. I look forward to updating you on our progress as we go through the year. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Raf.

總而言之，我們度過了出色的 2022 年，並且我們確實有能力在 2023 年繼續為所有利益相關者提供差異化的業績。這樣，我會將電話轉回給 Raf。

Thank you, Stephen. Operator, we're ready for the Q&A portion of the call.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。接線員，我們已準備好進行通話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) The first question we have from the phone lines comes from Jack Meehan of Nephron Research.

（操作員說明）我們從電話線上收到的第一個問題來自 Nephron Research 的 Jack Meehan。

I wanted to start with the clinical research, PPD, performance. So high-teens for the year, that's well above what we're seeing from the peer group. So a three-parter for you, Marc. What was your book-to-bill in 2022? Two, how are the revenue synergies tracking? And then three, can you talk about what sort of growth you're assuming for this business in 2023?

我想從臨床研究、PPD、表現開始。今年的數字如此之高，遠高於我們從同儕群體中看到的水平。所以這是給你的三人片，馬克。您 2022 年的訂單出貨量是多少？二、所得綜效如何追蹤？第三，您能談談您預計該業務在 2023 年將實現什麼樣的成長嗎？

Sure. So Jack, thanks for the question. Our clinical research group has performed incredibly well, a great first year as part of the company, exceeding our own high level of ambition for the business. Integration has gone smoothly. Customers really see the obvious fit with the company. And that really has driven very strong momentum. And our colleagues are very excited about the combination. So as I think about the different elements of performance, the book-to-bill was very positive. Authorizations were very strong in the quarter and the year. So we entered the year with very strong momentum in terms of the backlog that we have in the business and the authorizations.

當然。傑克，謝謝你的提問。我們的臨床研究小組表現非常出色，作為公司的一部分，這是偉大的第一年，超越了我們對業務的高水準抱負。整合進展順利。客戶確實看到了與公司明顯的契合度。這確實推動了非常強勁的勢頭。我們的同事對這次合併感到非常興奮。因此，當我考慮績效的不同要素時，訂單出貨比非常積極。本季和當年的授權非常強勁。因此，就業務積壓和授權而言，我們以非常強勁的勢頭進入了這一年。

The revenue synergies, the way I would think about it is in two phases. Because of the long-cycle nature from a win to revenue, we've won extremely substantial revenue synergies that will show up in the financials in 2023 and beyond. We had a small amount of revenue that came into the numbers last year. But we're talking in the hundreds of millions of dollars of wins that we've achieved from an authorization standpoint, so extremely positive.

我認為所得綜效分為兩個階段。由於從勝利到收入的長週期性質，我們贏得了極其巨大的收入協同效應，這些協同效應將體現在 2023 年及以後的財務數據中。去年我們有少量收入。但我們談論的是從授權的角度來看我們已經取得的數億美元的勝利，因此非常積極。

And in terms of our thoughts about 2023, it will grow above the company's average of the 7% growth that we outlined in the core, so a nice contributor to the success. And really, it's been a seamless integration for the team. And I'm very grateful for that.

就我們對 2023 年的想法而言，它將高於我們在核心中概述的公司平均成長率 7%，因此是成功的一個很好的貢獻者。事實上，這對團隊來說是一次無縫整合。我對此非常感激。

Excellent. And then I wanted to ask about the COVID vaccines and therapeutics. So you're assuming $500 million for the year. My question is simple. Just how core are your core sales? Would you ever consider changing this definition, just confidence in the handoff as it pertains to bioprocessing in 2023?

出色的。然後我想問一下新冠疫苗和治療方法。因此，您假設今年的收入為 5 億美元。我的問題很簡單。您的核心銷售有多核心？您是否會考慮改變這個定義，只是對 2023 年生物加工相關的交接充滿信心？

Yes. So Jack, thanks for the question. But when I think about the $500 million, right, and when I look at that, that number is primarily related to our Pharma Services activity. It's around actually producing the active pharmaceutical ingredients for the therapies. It's for the sterile fill-finish primarily for the vaccines and some of the therapies. So we have pretty good visibility to that number. So I feel good about that.

是的。傑克，謝謝你的提問。但當我想到 5 億美元時，對吧，當我看到這個數字時，這個數字主要與我們的製藥服務活動有關。它實際上是生產用於治療的活性藥物成分。它主要用於疫苗和某些療法的無菌填充。所以我們對這個數字有很好的了解。所以我對此感覺很好。

We decided back, I guess, 1.5 years ago, or whenever the exact time frame we did the definition of core, was we invested in capacity. And if you think about a sterile fill-finish line, as an example, can be used for a COVID vaccine. It can also be used for pretty much any other biologic and even some of the small molecules, right? And therefore, our view was we would transition that capacity over time. And we have been and we will.

我想，我們在 1.5 年前就決定，或者每當我們定義核心的確切時間框架時，我們就決定對容量進行投資。例如，如果您考慮無菌灌裝生產線可以用於生產新冠疫苗。它也可以用於幾乎任何其他生物製品，甚至一些小分子，對嗎？因此，我們的觀點是，我們將隨著時間的推移轉變這種能力。我們過去是，將來也會。

The other aspect of core is that if you think about how strong our growth was last year, well above our own ambitions. Even the 12% we had laid out at the end of the third quarter, we've already transitioned a meaningful amount of that revenue in terms of other activities. So we didn't contemplate at all about changing the definition of what success is. We think 7% is the right number for us. That core is the right definition for us. We'll provide transparency during the year about the different components as we always do so that investors can understand how we're getting there. But I feel great about the outlook, and I'm very proud of what the team delivered last year.

核心的另一個面向是，如果你想想我們去年的成長有多強勁，遠遠超出了我們自己的抱負。即使是我們在第三季末制定的 12%，我們也已經將相當一部分收入轉移到了其他活動。所以我們根本沒有考慮改變成功的定義。我們認為 7% 對我們來說是合適的數字。這個核心對我們來說是正確的定義。我們將像往常一樣在這一年中提供有關不同組成部分的透明度，以便投資者能夠了解我們如何實現這一目標。但我對前景感到很好，我對球隊去年所取得的成績感到非常自豪。

We have the next question from Patrick Donnelly of Citi.

我們有花旗銀行的帕特里克·唐納利提出的下一個問題。

Marc, maybe one on the Analytical Instruments business. 14% growth for the year is obviously pretty impressive. You guys have seen elevated growth for a good stretch here. It did step down a little bit against an easier comp. So just wanted to get more color, I guess, on what you're seeing on the demand side, how you're seeing order trends and bookings there, visibility into 2023. I know you've had this elevated backlog we've talked a lot about. It seems like some peers are expecting kind of a normalization or moderation in the second half as we work our way through the year. So I want to get your perspective of what you're seeing there.

馬克，也許是分析儀器業務的一員。今年 14% 的成長顯然相當可觀。你們已經看到了這裡一段時間內的高速成長。相對於更簡單的比賽，它確實有所下降。我想，我只是想了解更多關於您在需求方面看到的情況、您如何看待那裡的訂單趨勢和預訂、2023 年的可見性。 。似乎有些同行預計下半年會正常化或溫和化，因為我們將在今年努力工作。所以我想了解一下您對那裡所看到的情況的看法。

Yes, Patrick, thanks for the question. So when I think about the Analytical Instruments business, a really strong year, excellent execution. There's nothing different in Q4 than in Q3, so I wouldn't read anything into that. When I look at what's driving it, last year, you saw good market conditions. Funding was clearly strong. I don't know if there was a little bit of pent-up demand from 2020, I don't know. But the funding was clearly available.

是的，派崔克，謝謝你的提問。因此，當我想到分析儀器業務時，這是非常強勁的一年，執行力出色。第四季度與第三季度沒有什麼不同，所以我不會對此進行任何解讀。當我看看是什麼推動了它，去年，你看到了良好的市場狀況。資金顯然很雄厚。我不知道2020年以來是否有一點被壓抑的需求，我不知道。但資金顯然是可用的。

We did very well with our innovation, right? We stayed committed to innovation throughout the early phase of the pandemic, making sure we have robust pipelines. You saw that in the stream of launches in our chromatography, mass spectrometry and electron microscopy businesses, those products have been well adopted. We're clearly growing very well.

我們的創新做得很好，對嗎？在整個大流行的早期階段，我們始終致力於創新，確保我們擁有強大的產品線。您看到，在我們的色譜、質譜和電子顯微鏡業務推出的一系列產品中，這些產品得到了很好的採用。我們顯然發展得很好。

And as you know, we've also built on a very strong presence in enabling the next generation of semiconductors, battery applications. The most advanced aspects of material science is a different market position than really anybody else has in the industry. And that's driving great growth, right? And you can see it in our electron microscopy numbers. I'm very proud of how the team has executed.

如您所知，我們在實現下一代半導體、電池應用方面也建立了非常強大的影響力。材料科學最先進的方面具有與業內其他公司不同的市場地位。這正在推動巨大的成長，對嗎？您可以在我們的電子顯微鏡數據中看到它。我對團隊的執行方式感到非常自豪。

So that's kind of the context of why the elevated growth. So as I think about bookings demand, very strong throughout the year. So we have good visibility to the first half. It's when those -- most of those orders will ship. We would expect that the Analytical Instruments business will be a really nice contributor to our growth for the year.

這就是成長加快的背景。因此，我認為全年的預訂需求都非常強勁。所以我們對上半場有很好的預見性。那時，大部分訂單都會出貨。我們預計分析儀器業務將為我們今年的成長做出非常好的貢獻。

And I think it's reasonable to assume that the growth normalizes more in the second half as an assumption. It's not that I see something different or something happening in the market conditions. But our visibility is typically 6 months. So at the end of the first quarter, we'll have good visibility into the third quarter, and we'll keep you posted. But I think for modeling purpose, I think, normalization in the second half was a good assumption.

我認為下半年成長更正常化的假設是合理的。這並不是說我看到了一些不同的事情或市場狀況發生了一些事情。但我們的可見度通常為 6 個月。因此，在第一季末，我們將對第三季有充分的了解，我們隨時都會向您通報最新情況。但我認為出於建模目的，下半年的正常化是一個很好的假設。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe one for Stephen on the margins. Gross margins seem to have rebased. I would love just your perspective of what those look like in '23, first off. And then maybe just the additional areas of leverage kind of down the P&L coming out of COVID, you mentioned maybe some elevated strategic investments in '22. Obviously, we saw some things like one-time bonuses that are pretty clear.

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許是史蒂芬的邊緣之一。毛利率似乎已經重新調整。首先，我很想聽聽你對 23 年的看法。然後，也許只是因新冠疫情而導致損益表下降的額外槓桿領域，你提到可能在 22 年進行了一些更高的策略性投資。顯然，我們看到了一些非常明確的事情，例如一次性獎金。

But would be helpful if you could just talk through the moving pieces, what areas of additional leverage you do have coming out of '22. Because again, the mix, obviously as LPS becomes bigger, the margins should kind of be lower. But you guys are putting up pretty good numbers. So just trying to figure out again a little bit of moving pieces and areas of leverage you have when you think about that 23.9% for '23.

但如果你能簡單地談談那些正在發生的事情，以及你在 22 年中確實擁有哪些額外影響力的領域，那將會很有幫助。因為，顯然，隨著 LPS 規模的擴大，利潤率應該會更低。但你們的數字相當不錯。因此，當你考慮 23 年的 23.9% 時，只是想再次找出一些可動的部分和槓桿領域。

Yes. So Patrick, thanks for the question. So when I think about the margin profile going forward, that 7% to 9% core organic growth driving 40 to 50 basis points is the right way to think about that company. And the margin opportunity there, you've got a little bit of -- that assumes a little bit of price benefit, good volume leverage that comes with that and still investing in the business to maintain that top line growth. And then a continuation of using PPI that kind of decomplex the company.

是的。派崔克，謝謝你的提問。因此，當我考慮未來的利潤率狀況時，7% 至 9% 的核心有機成長推動 40 至 50 個基點是看待該公司的正確方式。那裡的利潤機會，你有一點——假設有一點價格優勢，隨之而來的是良好的銷售槓桿，並且仍然投資於業務以維持營收成長。然後繼續使用 PPI，使公司變得更加複雜。

But I think that margin profile still holds in terms of going from the 23.9% going forward post 2023, I think about the levers that we have. As you saw in this past year, we had a slightly different mix, a lot higher growth in certain parts of our business. And certainly, margins were slightly different in Q4 than we had in the prior guide. But the revenue is significantly higher. And what really matters is operating income dollars that we're driving. And that's incredibly strong. And our margin profile, the mix then holds into 2023. And then therefore, that kind of 7% to 9% driving that 40 to 50 is a good way to model the company.

但我認為，從 2023 年以後的 23.9% 來看，利潤率狀況仍然保持不變，我想到了我們擁有的槓桿。正如您在過去一年中看到的那樣，我們的組合略有不同，我們業務的某些部分增長了很多。當然，第四季度的利潤率與我們先前指南中的利潤率略有不同。但收入明顯更高。真正重要的是我們正在推動的營業收入。這是非常強大的。我們的利潤率狀況，這種組合將持續到 2023 年。

And then just gross margins for '23, if you have them?

然後就是 23 年的毛利率，如果有的話？

I don't really want to give guidance for every single element of the P&L. We're trying to manage a complex company. But a similar margin profile to where we are right now is probably a good starting point. But it really depends on the mix and also changes in currency. And our job is to manage the whole thing and deliver great results.

我真的不想為損益表的每個元素提供指導。我們正在努力管理一家複雜的公司。但與我們現在相似的利潤率狀況可能是一個很好的起點。但這實際上取決於貨幣的組合和變化。我們的工作是管理整個事情並交付出色的成果。

Our next question comes from Rachel Vatnsdal of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rachel Vatnsdal。

So first up, just on China. China declined mid-single digits during 4Q. And you say that some of that was testing roll-offs. You also talked about how China is part of the reason that, that core growth is going to ramp throughout the year. So can you just walk us through what are you embedding for China growth for 1Q and then for total 2023? And then can you also just spend a minute talking about the underlying demand trends for China and how you plan for the reopening trade?

首先，談談中國。中國第四季出現中個位數下降。你說其中一些是測試滾降。您也談到了中國是全年核心成長強勁的部分原因。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您對中國第一季和 2023 年全年成長的預期？那麼您能否花一點時間談談中國的潛在需求趨勢以及您如何規劃重新開放貿易？

Rachel, thanks for the question. So if I step at the highest level with China, right, historically been our fastest-growing end market. We have a very strong position. Our enabling technologies are important to life sciences and food safety and the biologics industry in China, et cetera, so good demand drivers long term, long historical perspective. When I think about last year, the team delivered high single-digit growth for the year. When I think about the fourth quarter, you had very, very significant disruptions from the end of the COVID -- zero-COVID policies, right?

雷切爾，謝謝你的提問。因此，如果我站在最高水平，中國歷史上是我們成長最快的終端市場。我們擁有非常強大的地位。我們的支援技術對於中國的生命科學、食品安全以及生物製品產業等非常重要，因此良好的需求驅動著長期、長期的歷史前景。當我回想起去年時，該團隊在這一年實現了高單位數成長。當我想到第四季時，新冠疫情結束後，你受到了非常非常重大的干擾——零新冠政策，對嗎？

So you went from this period where I think at least we had no problem navigating through the challenges of the lockdown policies. But when you have 50%, 60%, 70% of colleagues with COVID, that's obviously highly disruptive. And so you saw the first half of the quarter was strong, the second half of the quarter was weak. Our assumption for this year is that the zero-COVID -- opening up the economy leads to a weaker first quarter, a strong rebound in the balance of the year.

因此，我認為至少我們在應對封鎖政策的挑戰方面沒有任何問題。但當你有 50%、60%、70% 的同事感染了新冠病毒時，這顯然是極具破壞性的。所以你看到本季前半段表現強勁，後半段表現疲軟。我們對今年的假設是，零新冠疫情——開放經濟將導致第一季疲軟，而今年剩餘時間將強勁反彈。

China will grow on our expectations in our guidance a little bit faster for the full year than our core growth. So that's how I would think about it. So a really strong end market, including the disruption from Q1. I think the team has done actually -- I'm very impressed with how they've dealt with all of the complexities and keeping our colleagues safe. It's been a challenging period of time.

中國全年的成長將比我們的核心成長略快一些，符合我們指引中的預期。這就是我的想法。因此，終端市場非常強勁，包括第一季的干擾。我認為團隊確實做到了——他們處理所有複雜問題並保證同事安全的方式給我留下了深刻的印象。這是一段充滿挑戰的時期。

Great. And then maybe just kind of digging deeper on Patrick's question around margins, so you did 22.4% adjusted op margin for 4Q. You guided to a step-down on that operating margin line during 1Q but then hitting that 23.9%-ish for the year for 2023. So can you just kind of bridge us through the math there on margins and how that gives you confidence in the back half of the year to be able to round out at just shy of 24%?

偉大的。然後也許只是更深入地研究帕特里克關於利潤率的問題，所以你在第四季度調整後的營運利潤率為 22.4%。你們指導我們在第一季度降低了營業利潤率，但隨後在 2023 年達到了 23.9% 左右。略低於24% 的水平？

Yes. So Rachel, thanks for the question. So when I think about the margin progression through the year, Q1, we got a very significant roll-off in highly profitable testing revenue. And the cost actions against that to enable a 40% pull-through for the year, it's a combination of cost actions and a non-repeat of certain one-time things that we were doing on compensation in the prior year. Those things spread over the whole year.

是的。雷切爾，謝謝你的提問。因此，當我考慮今年第一季的利潤率進展時，我們在高利潤的測試收入方面出現了非常顯著的下滑。為了實現今年 40% 的目標，我們採取了成本行動，這是成本行動和不重複我們在上一年針對薪酬所做的某些一次性事情的結合。這些事情貫穿了全年。

So you get a little bit of benefit in Q1 to offset part of that profitability, but more of that offset really coming in the following 3 quarters. So that's really the largest piece to it. Now FX is a headwind to margins in Q1. So that's a slight aspect to it. And then the phasing of the China activity is another aspect of that, kind of lower level of activity in Q1 and then ramping up to a higher level of revenue in Q4.

因此，您在第一季獲得了一些收益，以抵消部分盈利能力，但更多的抵消將在接下來的三個季度中真正實現。所以這確實是最大的一部分。現在，外匯對第一季的利潤率構成了阻力。所以這是一個很小的面向。中國活動的分階段是另一個方面，第一季的活動水準較低，然後第四季的收入水準上升。

Helpful. And then maybe just squeezing one more in here, on industrial and applied, you grew low-teens in 4Q. So can you just give us a little bit more granularity on that performance during the quarter, if there's any pockets of outpaced strength or softness relative to your expectations? And then how are you thinking about that industrial and applied market for 2023, given the macro backdrop? And is there any conservatism there in the assumed guidance?

有幫助。然後，也許只是在工業和應用領域再壓縮一點，第四季的成長率就達到了十幾歲。那麼，您能否為我們提供有關本季度業績的更詳細信息，看看是否有任何超出您預期的強項或軟項？那麼，在宏觀背景下，您如何看待 2023 年的工業和應用市場？假設的指導中是否存在保守主義？

Yes. So industrial and applied was very strong in the quarter, low-teens growth in the quarter, really strong demand and shipments for our chromatography, mass spectrometry and electron microscopy business. So we didn't see any concerns. Our assumption for the year is that it's going to grow at about the average rate growth for the full year. So that's what we're assuming in the guidance.

是的。因此，本季工業和應用市場非常強勁，本季成長率較低，我們的色譜、質譜和電子顯微鏡業務的需求和出貨量非常強勁。所以我們沒有看到任何擔憂。我們對今年的假設是，它將以全年平均成長率左右的速度成長。這就是我們在指南中的假設。

We now have Derik De Bruin of Bank of America.

現在我們有美國銀行的 Derik De Bruin。

So Stephen, not to pick on the margin point, but I do want to sort of clarify something. I mean, I -- looking at the 40 to 50 basis points of expansion, so let's say you do 100 next couple of years, I mean, at your Analyst Day in May, you talked about a 26%-ish adjusted operating margin, excluding the impact of capital deployment. Are -- I mean, can you sort of just walk us through sort of like how you're thinking about the 2025 outlook that you provided and sort of like general thoughts around that in there?

史蒂芬，不是要挑釁邊緣點，但我確實想澄清一些事情。我的意思是，我- 看看40 到50 個基點的擴張，所以假設你接下來幾年會擴張100 個基點，我的意思是，在5 月份的分析師日上，你談到了26% 左右的調整後營業利益率，排除資本配置的影響。我的意思是，您能否向我們介紹一下您對 2025 年前景的看法以及對此的整體想法？

Go ahead, Stephen.

繼續吧，史蒂芬。

Yes, when I think about margin profile, it's in combination with revenue dollars. So our revenue dollars are materially higher than we had incorporated into my long-term model. In combination with that plus the margin gets you to a very strong operating income dollars. And that's what's driving EPS. So I'm -- so we're well positioned with the long-term model.

是的，當我考慮利潤狀況時，它與收入結合在一起。因此，我們的收入遠高於我們納入長期模型的收入。與此結合，再加上利潤，您將獲得非常強勁的營業收入。這就是每股盈餘的推動因素。所以我認為，我們在長期模型方面處於有利位置。

Great. That's what I thought. I just wanted to clarify that as well. And then just one quick follow-up, I assume there's some residual COVID business in your PPD. You talked about core growth being 20%. What is the headwind in the PPD business from leftover COVID going from '23 to -- '22 to '23?

偉大的。我就是這麼想的。我也只是想澄清這一點。然後，我想快速跟進一下，我認為您的 PPD 中還有一些殘留的新冠疫情業務。您談到核心成長率為 20%。從 23 年到 22 年到 23 年，剩餘的新冠疫情為 PPD 業務帶來了哪些阻力？

Yes. There's some activity of studies that will roll off over multiple years in terms of required follow-on studies and activity there that the team, as those studies come off, they just have moved to other areas of the therapeutic range. So that really has been done quite seamlessly. And as you know, with the business scaling the way it is, having a large capable team is a great way to be able to be ready to serve the next set of customer work, so pretty straightforward.

是的。就所需的後續研究和團隊活動而言，一些研究活動將在多年內展開，隨著這些研究的完成，他們只是轉移到治療範圍的其他領域。所以這確實是非常無縫地完成的。如您所知，隨著業務規模不斷擴大，擁有一支強大的、有能力的團隊是為下一組客戶工作做好準備的好方法，所以非常簡單。

And just if I can also, can I squeeze one more in? CapEx sort of outlook as we go from '23, you've been adding a lot of facilities. Can you sort of talk about what you're thinking about '23/'24?

如果我也可以的話，我可以再擠一個嗎？從 23 年開始的資本支出展望來看，您已經增加了許多設施。您能談談您對 '23/'24 的看法嗎？

So '23, as Stephen said, it's a couple of billion dollars. And we'll continue to -- it will kind of go down to a glidepath back to that 3.5% -- 3% to 3.5% over time. So nothing has changed in that assumption.

所以 23 年，正如史蒂芬所說，這是幾十億美元。我們將繼續——隨著時間的推移，它會下降到 3.5%——3% 到 3.5%。所以這個假設沒有任何改變。

Our next question comes from Dan Brennan of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自考恩的丹布倫南。

Maybe, Marc, to kick it off, just I'm all in on Aaron Rodgers if the Jets can get them. That would be a struggling company getting -- that would be like a struggling company getting you as their CEO would be a great deal, I think. So one of my questions here.

也許，馬克，首先，如果噴射機隊能得到他們，我就全力支持亞倫羅傑斯。我認為，這將是一家陷入困境的公司——就像一家陷入困境的公司讓你擔任他們的執行長一樣，這將是一筆偉大的交易。這是我的問題之一。

Maybe the first one, just obviously, there's a lot of concerns in the industry broadly on the near-term drag on revenue growth for biologic drug products, given the inventory depletion that's ongoing in the industry. You've been pretty confident that, for various reasons, Thermo is really not seeing this. Just would be interested to get an update on kind of just on your thinking there and kind of what you're assuming in your outlook for 7% growth for your businesses both on the consumable side and then on the Patheon services side?

也許是第一個，很明顯，考慮到該行業持續的庫存枯竭，整個行業普遍擔心近期生物藥品收入增長受到拖累。您非常有信心，由於各種原因，Thermo 確實沒有看到這一點。只是有興趣了解您的想法的最新情況以及您對消費品方面和 Patheon 服務方面的業務增長 7% 的前景的假設嗎？

Yes. So in terms of football, hope springs eternal until the first snap. In terms of the bioproduction business, what I would say is a few points. Obviously, not every single player has reported, but a couple of them have. So we have a sense of how the industry did and what others have said. When I think about last year, our bioproduction business just crushed it again, right? It's just phenomenal performance well above the rate of growth of our pharma and biotech customer set. And that's 3 years in a row of really very strong growth. I'm very proud of how the team has executed.

是的。因此，就足球而言，直到第一聲響響之前，希望都是永恆的。就生物生產業務而言，我想說的有幾點。顯然，並不是每個球員都報告了，但有幾個球員報告了。因此，我們了解該行業的表現以及其他人的言論。回想去年，我們的生物生產業務又被壓垮了，對嗎？這是驚人的表現，遠高於我們製藥和生技客戶群的成長率。這是連續三年非常強勁的成長。我對團隊的執行方式感到非常自豪。

When I think about 2023, against tougher comparisons, obviously, the growth will normalize a bit. And I would expect that based on some of the COVID comparisons of the first half of 2022 that you'll see more normalization in the first half. Stronger in the second half is the pattern. But it's a good business with incredibly bright prospects. So from that perspective, I feel good about how the team is managing it with what '23 will contribute and what the long term is going to be fantastic.

當我想到 2023 年時，透過更嚴格的比較，顯然，成長將趨於正常化。我預計，根據 2022 年上半年的一些新冠病毒比較，您會看到上半年更加正常化。下半場的格局更加強勁。但這是一門好生意，前景非常光明。因此，從這個角度來看，我對團隊如何管理它、23 年將做出的貢獻以及長期的美好前景感到滿意。

Pharma Services business has had a very good year, very strong growth, has brought its capacity online very effectively and winning a lot of new business. We still have activity this year that's meaningful in the vaccine and therapies for COVID. And then as those wind down at some point in time, it's hard to know what the longer-term visibility is for that. That capacity just gets repurposed all the time. So we do that in an orderly fashion. So that's how we think about it. But a really strong year and some really nice meaningful wins throughout 2022 that sets up the Pharma Services business for a good year and (inaudible).

醫藥服務業務今年表現非常好，成長非常強勁，非常有效地提高了產能，並贏得了許多新業務。今年我們在新冠疫苗和治療方面仍然開展了有意義的活動。然後，隨著這些在某個時間點逐漸結束，很難知道其長期可見度是什麼。這種能力一直被重新利用。所以我們以有序的方式做到這一點。這就是我們的想法。但 2022 年是非常強勁的一年，並且在整個 2022 年取得了一些非常有意義的勝利，為製藥服務業務奠定了良好的基礎（聽不清楚）。

Got it. And then maybe just as a follow-up, obviously, your business mix is a lot less cyclical today than it was back in the prior downturn. Just wondering, implicit in the 7%, Rachel asked a question on industrial business. But just to what extent does your guide bake in some cushion for a potential slowdown that could unfold, given weaker macro?

知道了。然後，也許作為後續行動，顯然，今天您的業務組合的周期性比上次經濟低迷時期要小得多。只是想知道，隱含在 7% 中，雷切爾問了一個關於工業業務的問題。但鑑於宏觀經濟疲軟，您的指南在多大程度上為可能出現的潛在經濟放緩提供了一些緩衝？

Yes. So what we assumed is normal market conditions, right? And the way I would characterize last year was above-normal market conditions. So normal in my definition is market goes 4% to 6%, right? And we said that for a very, very long time. So that's what we're assuming for this year. If it's materially different than that, meaning that if the market conditions look anything like they looked last year, we're going to grow well above the core guidance. If the market conditions are meaningfully worse than what's assumed in normal market conditions, then we're going to grow lower than the fourth quarter organic that we outlined.

是的。那我們假設的是正常的市場條件，對嗎？我對去年的描述是市場狀況高於正常水平。按照我的定義，市場上漲 4% 到 6% 是正常的，對嗎？我們這樣說了很久。這就是我們今年的假設。如果情況與去年有很大不同，這意味著如果市場狀況看起來與去年相似，我們的成長將遠高於核心指引。如果市場狀況比正常市場狀況所假設的情況嚴重惡化，那麼我們的成長將低於我們概述的第四季有機成長。

So nothing is dramatic about that, and we'll be super transparent. And all our investors will understand, if the world is totally different than what it looks like on February 1, what we know is that we're going to manage incredibly well. So whatever the world throws at us, we'll come out with great short-term performance and a much stronger industry leader for the long term. And that's what's super cool about Thermo Fisher. Because it's our job to manage the dynamics and do it great and do a great job for our investors. So I'm excited for what the world holds in 2023 and beyond.

所以這沒什麼戲劇性的，我們將非常透明。我們所有的投資者都會明白，如果世界與 2 月 1 日完全不同，我們所知道的是我們將管理得非常好。因此，無論世界向我們拋出什麼，我們都將取得出色的短期業績，並在長期成為更強大的行業領導者。這就是 Thermo Fisher 的超酷之處。因為我們的工作就是管理動態並且做得很好，為我們的投資者做得很好。因此，我對 2023 年及以後的世界會發生什麼感到興奮。

We now have Vijay Kumar of Evercore ISI.

現在我們請來了 Evercore ISI 的 Vijay Kumar。

Congrats on a really strong finish to the year. I had two parts, maybe I'll ask them both upfront. Marc, the first part for you on -- when I look at this guidance on base organic, excluding vaccine, I think the business did -- the business is assuming perhaps low double-digit organic here in fiscal '23. And that's coming off of perhaps a mid-teens comp. One, is that math correct, that base business, excluding vaccine, double digits?

祝賀今年取得了非常強勁的成績。我有兩個部分，也許我會提前問他們兩個。馬克，第一部分是——當我看到這份關於基本有機（不包括疫苗）的指導時，我認為該企業做到了——該企業假設在23 財年的有機有機率可能會低兩位數。這可能是來自青少年時期的比賽。第一，數學正確嗎？

And what does it assume? I'm thinking biopharma has to grow at least mid-teens to get to that 9% to 10%. And it seems pretty strong. Do those numbers make sense? And Stephen, the second part for you on margins here, what are you assuming for decremental margins on COVID and margins on FX? And did I hear you correctly on Q1 is starting at 22%? Just want to make sure I heard the numbers right.

它假設什麼？我認為生物製藥必須至少成長到 15% 左右才能達到 9% 到 10%。而且看起來還蠻強的。這些數字有意義嗎？史蒂芬，關於保證金的第二部分，您對新冠肺炎保證金和外匯保證金的遞減有何假設？我沒聽錯吧，第一季起始利率為 22%？只是想確保我聽到的數字是正確的。

Sure. So in terms of the guidance in the 7% core, we did not do a lot of machinations about excluding this or that. I think from the math, the way you're doing it is that if you excluded the vaccines and therapies, it would imply that the growth was 9% or 10%, somewhere in that range is about what the growth would be on that measure, for which we're not using that particular measure.

當然。因此，就 7% 核心的指導而言，我們沒有做很多排除這個或那個的陰謀。我認為從數學角度來看，如果排除疫苗和療法，則意味著增長為 9% 或 10%，在該範圍內的某個位置就是按該指標計算的增長情況，為此我們沒有使用該特定度量。

Therefore, you can't sort of speculate on sort of all the dynamics. It's much better to just say relative to our 7% growth, pharma and biotech, we expect to grow above that, right, in terms of its contribution to the 7%. And we would assume that the industrial and applied would grow around the 7% core and the other 2 markets a little bit below. So that's how you should think about the different dynamics.

因此，您無法推測所有動態。更好的說法是，相對於我們 7% 的成長，製藥和生物技術的成長預計會高於這個數字，對吧，就其對 7% 的貢獻而言。我們假設工業和應用市場將在核心市場成長 7% 左右，而其他兩個市場的成長略低一些。所以這就是你應該如何思考不同的動態。

Yes. Vijay, in terms of the pull-through on the lower testing revenue, as I outlined on the last call, the assumption is approximately 40% in aggregate for the whole year. But that doesn't all -- that's not the same in every single quarter. The offsetting cost actions against a very significant profitability pull-through, which is higher than that on a contribution margin basis, that's spread across each of the quarters.

是的。 Vijay，就較低測試收入的拉動而言，正如我在上次電話會議中概述的那樣，假設全年總計約為 40%。但這還不是全部——每季的情況都不一樣。針對非常顯著的獲利能力提升的抵銷成本行動，該獲利能力高於貢獻邊際基礎上的獲利能力，分佈在每個季度。

But the revenue drop is largely just in Q1. So that's why you have the margin profile that I outlined for Q1. And the indication I gave for Q1 margin profile at this point is slightly below what has the margin in Q4. So the largest driver there is that large drop in very profitable testing. And then the offset on the cost to get it to the 40% pull-through spreads throughout the year.

但收入下降主要發生在第一季。這就是為什麼你有我為第一季概述的利潤概況。我此時給出的第一季利潤率狀況的指示略低於第四季度的利潤率。因此，最大的驅動因素是利潤豐厚的測試大幅下降。然後抵消成本，使其達到全年 40% 的拉動價差。

Our final question comes from the line of Dan Arias of Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Dan Arias。

Marc, maybe just one on bioprocess, bioproduction. I just wanted to ask whether you're seeing any differences in purchasing patterns and the way that inventories just appear as though they're being managed when you look at CDMOs versus the biopharmas themselves. There has been some conversation around just timelines that look like they might materialize on destocking. So curious if you can just sort of help us with what may be taking place, given where you sit here.

馬克，也許只是一個關於生物過程、生物生產的人。我只是想問一下，當您查看 CDMO 與生物製藥本身時，您是否發現採購模式以及庫存管理方式有任何差異。圍繞著時間表進行了一些討論，這些時間表似乎可能會在去庫存中實現。鑑於您坐在這裡，我很好奇您是否可以幫助我們解決可能發生的事情。

Yes. Dan, just sort of along the line with Dan Brennan's question, really not much to add, right, which is phenomenal 2022. We created a really challenging and exciting comparison. We get paid to create those comparisons. And I would expect that would show up in a more normalized growth in the first half and a little bit stronger than that in the second half. I think there's much color between the different customer types that would provide much more insight on it.

是的。丹，就像丹布倫南的問題一樣，真的沒什麼可補充的，對吧，這是驚人的 2022 年。我們透過進行這些比較來獲得報酬。我預計上半年的成長將更加正常化，並且比下半年的成長略強一些。我認為不同的客戶類型之間存在著許多差異，這可以提供更多的見解。

Well, so let me wrap it up here. Thanks, everyone, for participating in the call. With another strong year behind us, we're in a great position to achieve another excellent year in 2023. And as always, thank you for your support of Thermo Fisher Scientific. And we look forward to updating you during the course of the year as it progresses. Thanks, everyone.

好吧，讓我把它總結到這裡。感謝大家參與此次通話。又一個強勁的一年過去了，我們完全有能力在 2023 年再創輝煌。我們期待在這一年中隨著進展向您通報最新情況。謝謝大家。

Thank you all for joining. That does conclude today's call. Please have a lovely day, and you may now disconnect your lines.

感謝大家的加入。今天的電話會議到此結束。請祝您有愉快的一天，現在可以斷開線路了。