TransAlta Corp (TAC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome. My name is Carmen, and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to TransAlta Corporation first-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎光臨。我叫卡門，今天我將擔任您的接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 TransAlta Corporation 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

Ms. Paris, you may begin your conference.

帕麗斯女士，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, everyone. My name is Stephanie Paris, and I am the Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy of TransAlta. Welcome to TransAlta's first quarter 2025 conference call.

謝謝你，卡門。大家早安。我叫 Stephanie Paris，是 TransAlta 投資者關係和企業策略副總裁。歡迎參加 TransAlta 2025 年第一季電話會議。

With me today are John Kousinioris, President and Chief Executive Officer; Joel Hunter, EVP, Finance and Chief Financial Officer; and Blain van Melle, EVP, Commercial and Customer Relations. Today's call is being webcast, and I invite those listening on the phone lines to view the supporting slides that are posted on our website. A replay of the call will be available later today, and the transcript will be posted to our website shortly thereafter.

今天與我一起的有總裁兼執行長 John Kousinioris、財務執行副總裁兼財務長 Joel Hunter 以及商業和客戶關係執行副總裁 Blain van Melle。今天的電話會議正在進行網路直播，我邀請電話聽眾觀看我們網站上發布的支援幻燈片。今天稍晚我們將提供此通話的重播，隨後不久我們將把通話記錄發佈到我們的網站上。

All information provided during this conference call is subject to the forward-looking statement qualification set out here on slide 2, detailed further in our MD&A, and incorporated in full for the purposes of today's call. All amounts referenced are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

本次電話會議中提供的所有資訊均受投影片 2 中列出的前瞻性聲明資格的約束，該資格在我們的 MD&A 中有進一步詳細說明，並已完整納入今天的電話會議中。除非另有說明，否則所有引用的金額均為加幣。

The non-IFRS terminology used, including adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, are reconciled in the MD&A for your reference. On today's call, John and Joe will provide an overview of TransAlta's quarterly results. After these remarks, we will open the call for questions.

所使用的非國際財務報告準則術語（包括調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流量）已在 MD&A 中進行了協調，以供您參考。在今天的電話會議上，約翰和喬將概述 TransAlta 的季度業績。在這些發言之後，我們將開始提問。

With that, I will turn the call over to John.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Stephanie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first-quarter conference call for 2025.

謝謝你，斯蒂芬妮。大家早安，感謝大家參加我們 2025 年第一季電話會議。

As part of our commitment towards reconciliation, I want to begin by acknowledging that our company operates on the traditional territories of indigenous peoples across Canada, Australia, and the United States. We recognize the rich and diverse history's cultures and contributions of the First Nations, Inuit, Métis, Aboriginal, and Native American communities. And it is with gratitude and respect that we think the people who have lived on these lands for generations for reminding us of the ongoing histories that preceded us.

作為我們對和解的承諾的一部分，我首先要承認，我們的公司在加拿大、澳洲和美國原住民的傳統領土上開展業務。我們認識到第一民族、因紐特人、梅蒂人、原住民和美洲原住民社區豐富多樣的歷史文化和貢獻。我們懷著感激和敬意，感謝世世代代生活在這片土地上的人們提醒我們前人的歷史。

Before diving into our quarterly results, I want to take a moment to reflect on our strategic direction. We're excited about the growing demand for electricity across our core markets, whether it is driven by population growth, economic expansion, electrification trends, increased use of electric vehicles, the rise of AI and data centers, or supportive policy environments, it's clear the future is very bright for our industry and our company.

在深入探討我們的季度業績之前，我想花點時間來思考我們的策略方向。我們對核心市場對電力的需求不斷增長感到興奮，無論是受人口增長、經濟擴張、電​​氣化趨勢、電動汽車使用增加、人工智慧和數據中心的興起，還是支持性政策環境的推動，很明顯，我們的行業和公司的未來非常光明。

With opportunity, however, comes complexity. We faced real challenges, political and regulatory uncertainty, long interconnection cues, tariffs, supply chain challenges, and rising costs; all of which serve to make near-term organic greenfield growth more difficult.

然而，機會與複雜性並存。我們面臨著真正的挑戰、政治和監管的不確定性、長期互連線索、關稅、供應鏈挑戰以及成本上升；所有這些都使得近期的有機綠地成長更加困難。

In response, we are focused on diversifying our portfolio and increasing the stability and contractedness of our cash flows. This means our reliance on the Alberta market will evolve and likely decrease over time. It also means that we will remain technology-agnostic, as we believe a mix of generation sources is essential to meet growing demand safely, reliably, and sustainably.

作為回應，我們專注於實現投資組合多樣化，並提高現金流的穩定性和收縮性。這意味著我們對阿爾伯塔市場的依賴將會隨著時間的推移而變化，並可能減少。這也意味著我們將繼續保持技術不可知論，因為我們相信混合發電來源對於安全、可靠且可持續地滿足不斷增長的需求至關重要。

Our deep operational experience across fuel types uniquely positions us to advance a balanced growth portfolio, including reliable thermal assets and clean locally sourced power generation. We will continue to pursue growth with discipline and a sharp focus on shareholder value.

我們在跨燃料類型的豐富營運經驗使我們能夠推動均衡的成長組合，包括可靠的熱能資產和清潔的本地發電。我們將持續嚴守紀律，高度重視股東價值，追求成長。

In the near term, that includes maximizing the value of our legacy thermal assets, evaluating M&A opportunities, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and returning capital to our shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. At the same time, we're positioning our company to deliver sustained value through the rest of this decade and into the next.

短期內，這包括最大化我們遺留熱力資產的價值、評估併購機會、保持強勁的資產負債表以及透過股利和股票回購向股東返還資本。同時，我們正在定位我們的公司，以便在未來十年甚至下一個十年提供持續的價值。

I'll now turn to the quarter. We delivered exceptional operational performance across our entire fleet during the first three months of the year. While our Alberta merchant portfolio was impacted by softer-than-expected prices, our hedging strategy and active asset optimization generated realized prices that were well above spot prices during the quarter.

現在我來談談本季。今年前三個月，我們整個機隊都表現出色。雖然我們的阿爾伯塔商人投資組合受到低於預期的價格的影響，但我們的對沖策略和積極的資產優化產生了本季遠高於現貨價格的實際價格。

We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $270 million and free cash flow of $139 million or $0.47 per share. And we announced an 8% increase to our common share dividend to $0.26 per share on an annualized basis, which represents our sixth consecutive annual dividend increase.

我們實現的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 2.7 億美元，自由現金流為 1.39 億美元，即每股 0.47 美元。我們宣布將普通股股息提高 8%，達到每股 0.26 美元（年度化），這是我們連續第六年增加年度股息。

In the year to date, we have also returned $24 million or $0.08 per share to shareholders through share buybacks at an average price of $12.42 per share. Returning capital to shareholders remain a key part of our capital allocation strategy, which we adapt to market conditions and the timing and progress of our growth opportunities. We plan to renew our annual normal course issuer bid at the end of this month, and we retain the option to continue to make accretive share buybacks during the year of up to $100 million.

今年迄今，我們也透過股票回購向股東返還了 2,400 萬美元或每股 0.08 美元，平均價格為每股 12.42 美元。向股東返還資本仍然是我們資本配置策略的關鍵部分，我們會根據市場狀況以及成長機會的時間和進展進行調整。我們計劃在本月底更新我們的年度正常發行人要約，並且我們保留在年內繼續進行高達 1 億美元的增值股票回購的選擇權。

We had a number of business highlights during the quarter. First, we achieved exceptional average fleet availability of 94.9%.

本季我們有許多業務亮點。首先，我們實現了 94.9% 的出色平均機隊可用性。

Second, we mothballed Sundance Unit 6 on April 1 for a period of up to two years, depending on market conditions. This reflects our ongoing commitment to optimize our portfolio and minimize costs. We maintain the flexibility to return Sundance 6 to service when market fundamentals improve or opportunities to contract the facility are secured.

其次，我們於 4 月 1 日將聖丹斯 6 號機組封存，封存期限最長為兩年，視市場情況而定。這反映了我們持續致力於優化產品組合和降低成本。當市場基本面改善或獲得簽訂設施合約的機會時，我們保留讓聖丹斯 6 號恢復服務的彈性。

Third, we completed the integration of Heartland generation safely, on schedule, and have realized our targeted synergies across both the corporate and operational teams. And finally, we continue to engage with the government of Alberta and the ISO on the restructured Energy Market Design or REM.

第三，我們按時、安全地完成了Heartland發電的整合，並實現了公司和營運團隊之間的目標協同效應。最後，我們繼續與阿爾伯塔省政府和 ISO 就重組能源市場設計（REM）進行合作。

The government and the ISO recently announced that they had refined the scope of the REM, most notably by removing the day-ahead energy and commitment products that had previously been proposed. The revised scope includes the day-ahead procurement of operating reserves and new ramping ancillary services along with a higher offer and price cap.

政府和 ISO 最近宣布，他們已經完善了 REM 的範圍，最顯著的是刪除了先前提出的日前能源和承諾產品。修訂後的範圍包括提前一天採購營運儲備和新的爬坡輔助服務，以及更高的報價和價格上限。

The proposed offer cap of up to $2,200 per megawatt hour with the ability for pricing to administratively go up to $3,000 per megawatt hour is a significant and positive change to the current offer and price cap of $999 per megawatt hour, which has been in place unchanged for over 20 years.

擬議的報價上限為每兆瓦時 2,200 美元，且定價可行政上調至每兆瓦時 3,000 美元，這與現行的每兆瓦時 999 美元的報價和價格上限相比是一個重大而積極的變化，後者已實施 20 多年未變。

The ISO also intends to move forward with a locational marginal pricing framework and plans to allocate transmission system and ancillary services costs on the basis of causation, also a positive development from our perspective.

ISO 還打算推進位置邊際定價框架，並規劃根據因果關係分配輸電系統和輔助服務成本，從我們的角度來看，這也是一個積極的發展。

We expect the government of Alberta and the ISO to provide more details on the REM later this month and are actively engaged with both parties on the redesign. We remain supportive of initiatives that provide long-term stability and reliability as well as incentives for existing and new infrastructure investment.

我們預計阿爾伯塔省政府和 ISO 將在本月晚些時候提供有關 REM 的更多詳細信息，並積極與雙方就重新設計進行溝通。我們仍然支持提供長期穩定性和可靠性以及激勵現有和新的基礎設施投資的措施。

During the quarter, we also advanced our strategic priorities. First, we're pleased to announce our strategic partnership with Nova Clean Energy. Nova is the US development arm of Bluestar Energy Capital, a platform founded in 2022 and led by Declan Flanagan, the former CEO of Orsted's onshore renewables business; and Neil O'Donovan, a former EVP at Orsted, who served as CEO of its onshore business unit.

本季度，我們也推進了戰略重點。首先，我們很高興宣布與 Nova Clean Energy 建立策略合作夥伴關係。Nova 是 Bluestar Energy Capital 在美國的開發部門，該平台成立於 2022 年，由 Orsted 陸上再生能源業務前執行長 Declan Flanagan 和 Orsted 前執行副總裁、曾擔任其陸上業務部門執行長的 Neil O'Donovan 領導。

Nova's development team under the leadership of Declan and Neil has a successful track record of investing in and developing grid scale wind, solar, and storage projects across the United States with over $10 billion of capital investment in global clean energy.

Nova 的開發團隊在 Declan 和 Neil 的領導下，在美國各地投資和開發電網規模的風能、太陽能和儲能項目方面有著成功的記錄，在全球清潔能源領域的資本投資超過 100 億美元。

Our relationship has a number of components. We have negotiated and structured a USD100 million revolving credit facility and a USD75 million term loan to Nova with phase draws over the first two years, providing an annual return on capital, security gains project values, and strategically sized and balance with our other capital allocation priorities.

我們的關係由多個部分組成。我們已經與 Nova 協商並構建了一筆 1 億美元的循環信貸額度和 7500 萬美元的定期貸款，並在前兩年分階段提取，提供年度資本回報、擔保收益項目價值，並進行戰略性調整，與我們的其他資本配置重點保持平衡。

We have secured the exclusive option to purchase projects developed by Nova in the WECC, one of our core growth markets, that are competitive on a risk-adjusted return basis. And the transaction provides TransAlta with potential upside through an equity conversion option, which could provide us up to a 23% ownership stake in Nova.

我們已獲得獨家購買權，可以購買 Nova 在我們的核心成長市場之一 WECC 開發的、在風險調整回報基礎上具有競爭力的項目。該交易透過股權轉換選項為 TransAlta 帶來了潛在的上升空間，我們可以藉此獲得 Nova 高達 23% 的所有權。

Our investment thesis in Nova is as follows. First, it aligns us with a world-class developer, enhancing our ability to achieve strategic growth priorities in the latter part of the decade with technology-agnostic customer solutions in the Western US.

我們對 Nova 的投資論點如下。首先，它使我們與世界一流的開發商結盟，增強了我們利用美國西部與技術無關的客戶解決方案在未來十年後期實現戰略成長重點的能力。

Second, it provides competitive differentiation to an advantaged path to late-stage development M&A with exclusive purchase rights from Nova. And third, it allows us to monitor, govern, and influence project development by Nova prior to any notice to proceed, resulting in attractive return profiles that can be augmented by our capabilities.

其次，它為後期開發併購提供了有利的競爭差異化途徑，並擁有 Nova 的獨家購買權。第三，它使我們能夠在收到任何繼續進行的通知之前監控、管理和影響 Nova 的專案開發，從而產生可透過我們的能力增強的有吸引力的回報狀況。

The investment in Nova complements our existing growth capabilities. We remain focused on executing our near-term brownfield projects, opportunistic M&A, and selective complementary projects. Opportunities will be evaluated and selected with a view to ensuring we're unlocking the most value for our shareholders.

對 Nova 的投資補充了我們現有的成長能力。我們仍專注於執行近期棕地專案、機會性併購和選擇性互補專案。我們將對機會進行評估和選擇，以確保為股東創造最大的價值。

Moving to our legacy thermal sites. We continue to make significant steps forward in both the United States and Alberta. At our Centralia site, we're advancing discussions with our customer on a redevelopment opportunity to extend the operating life of Centralia through a contracted coal to gas conversion.

轉移到我們傳統的熱站點。我們在美國和阿爾伯塔省繼續取得重大進展。在我們的 Centralia 工廠，我們正在與客戶就重建機會進行討論，透過簽訂合約將煤炭轉化為天然氣來延長 Centralia 的使用壽命。

Our team is forecasting significant near-term capacity and energy supply deficiencies in Washington State, and our Centralia facility can play an integral role in supporting ongoing reliability in the region. Over the past number of months, we've been progressing engineering and commercial negotiations, including term sheets and pricing with the target of executing a definitive agreement in mid-2025.

我們的團隊預測華盛頓州近期將出現嚴重的產能和能源供應不足，而我們的森特勒利亞工廠可以在支持該地區持續的可靠性方面發揮不可或缺的作用。在過去的幾個月裡，我們一直在推進工程和商業談判，包括條款清單和定價，目標是在 2025 年中期達成最終協議。

Aside from the coal to gas conversion, we also continue to evaluate other opportunities to build out the Centralia Energy campus on our significant land holdings, including wind, solar, batteries, and next-generation technologies. We expect to be able to share detailed development plans for Centralia in the coming months as we finalize negotiations.

除了煤炭轉天然氣之外，我們還將繼續評估在我們持有的大量土地上建造 Centralia Energy 園區的其他機會，包括風能、太陽能、電池和下一代技術。我們期望在未來幾個月完成談判後能夠分享 Centralia 的詳細發展計劃。

We're also advancing opportunities at our legacy thermal sites in Alberta, which we believe offer ideal conditions for data center opportunities, including speed to power, Tier 4 reliability, and competitive power pricing. We're now actively in the commercialization phase of the project with discussions around detailed and derisked commercial offerings, which are being showcased to potential customers, including through access to our virtual data room.

我們也在阿爾伯塔省的傳統熱電站推進機遇，我們相信這些電站為資料中心機會提供了理想的條件，包括供電速度、Tier 4 可靠性和有競爭力的電價。我們目前正積極進入該專案的商業化階段，討論詳細且低風險的商業產品，並透過訪問我們的虛擬資料室向潛在客戶展示。

We continue to focus on securing exclusivity with key partners by midyear with detailed design and definitive agreements expected by year end. A data center would be operational 18 to 24 months after signing definitive agreements.

我們將繼續致力於在年中之前與主要合作夥伴達成獨家經營權，並預計在年底前完成詳細設計和最終協議。數據中心將在簽署最終協議後的 18 至 24 個月內投入營運。

Finally, we continue to focus on our financial strength and capital discipline. In March, we successfully closed the $450 million seven-year senior unsecured green note offering with a coupon of 5.65% maturing in 2032. This marked a return to the Canadian debt capital market by the company for the first time since 2013, and we're extremely pleased that the offering was well received.

最後，我們繼續關注我們的財務實力和資本紀律。今年 3 月，我們成功完成了 4.5 億美元七年期無擔保優先綠色票據發行，票面利率為 5.65%，到期日為 2032 年。這是該公司自 2013 年以來首次重返加拿大債務資本市場，我們非常高興此次發行獲得了廣泛好評。

The majority of the net proceeds were used to repay a $400 million variable rate term loan facility in advance of its scheduled maturity later in the year. Following the offering, we exited the quarter with over $1.5 billion in available liquidity, including approximately $240 million of cash on hand, which positions us well to execute our strategic priorities.

大部分淨收益用於提前償還 4 億美元的浮動利率定期貸款，該貸款將於今年稍後到期。在此次發行之後，我們在本季結束時擁有超過 15 億美元的可用流動資金，其中包括約 2.4 億美元的現金，這使我們能夠很好地執行我們的戰略重點。

I'll now pass the call over to Joel.

我現在將電話轉給喬爾。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Overall, we are pleased with our first-quarter operational performance across all of our business segments and remain confident in our ability to meet our 2025 guidance range.

謝謝，約翰，大家早安。總體而言，我們對所有業務部門第一季的營運表現感到滿意，並對我們實現 2025 年指導範圍的能力充滿信心。

During the quarter, we generated $270 million of adjusted EBITDA, which was $72 million lower when compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to the milder weather in Alberta, which contributed to lower power prices.

本季度，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.7 億美元，與 2024 年第一季相比減少了 7,200 萬美元，這主要是由於阿爾伯塔省天氣較為溫和，導致電價下降。

Turning to our segmented results relative to the same period of 2024. The hydro segment produced adjusted EBITDA of $47 million, which declined due to lower spot power and ancillary prices in Alberta, partially offset by higher merchant and ancillary services volumes and positive contributions from our hedging activities.

轉向我們相對於 2024 年同期的細分結果。水電部門的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤為 4,700 萬美元，由於阿爾伯塔省現貨電力和輔助價格下降而下降，但商業和輔助服務量的增加以及我們對沖活動的積極貢獻部分抵消了這一影響。

The wind and solar segment produced adjusted EBITDA of $102 million, an increase of 15%, primarily due to the addition of our Oklahoma wind facilities and higher production volumes from the fleet. Adjusted EBITDA in the gas segment decreased by 17% to $104 million, mostly due to lower realized power prices in Alberta and higher carbon pricing, partially offset by the addition of Heartland and fleet optimization.

風能和太陽能部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.02 億美元，成長 15%，這主要歸功於我們增加了俄克拉荷馬州的風力發電設施，以及風力發電廠的產量增加。天然氣部門的調整後 EBITDA 下降了 17%，至 1.04 億美元，主要原因是阿爾伯塔省的實際電價較低以及碳價較高，但 Heartland 的加入和車隊優化部分抵消了這一影響。

The Energy Transition segment delivered $37 million of adjusted EBITDA, an increase year over year due to lower purchase power costs, which were driven by higher availability at our Centralia facility. Energy Marketing adjusted EBITDA decreased by $18 million to $21 million, primarily due to muted market volatility across North American natural gas and power markets.

能源轉型部門實現了 3700 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，同比增長，原因是購買電力成本降低，而這得益於我們 Centralia 工廠的可用性提高。能源行銷調整後的 EBITDA 減少 1,800 萬美元至 2,100 萬美元，主要原因是北美天然氣和電力市場的市場波動性較低。

Corporate costs increased to $41 million, largely due to increased spending to support strategic and growth initiatives and the addition of corporate costs related to Heartland. Our adjusted EBIT composition was amended to remove the impact of realized gains and losses on closed exchange positions, which was included in adjusted EBITDA until the fourth quarter of 2024.

公司成本增加至 4,100 萬美元，主要是由於支援策略和成長計劃的支出增加以及與 Heartland 相關的公司成本增加。我們對調整後的 EBIT 組成進行了修改，以消除已平倉外匯頭寸的已實現損益的影響，該影響在 2024 年第四季度之前均計入調整後的 EBITDA 中。

The adjustment was intended to explain a timing difference between our internally and externally reported results and was useful at a time when markets were more volatile. The minor quarterly adjustments are reflected in our quarterly results filed posted to our website.

此項調整旨在解釋我們內部和外部報告結果之間的時間差異，在市場波動較大時非常有用。微小的季度調整反映在我們網站上發布的季度業績文件中。

As a reminder, our adjusted EBITDA excludes the impact of ERP integration of Heartland acquisition costs. Our free cash flow excludes the impact of the Brazeau penalties, which were paid in January of this year. These items are not reflective of ongoing operations or performance of our operating assets.

提醒一下，我們調整後的 EBITDA 不包括 ERP 整合對 Heartland 收購成本的影響。我們的自由現金流不包括今年 1 月支付的 Brazeau 罰款的影響。這些項目並不反映我們正在進行的營運或營運資產的表現。

Free cash flow of $139 million in the first quarter was lower than the same period last year. This was primarily due to lower adjusted EBITDA, along with higher sustaining capital expenditures and higher net interest expense.

第一季自由現金流為1.39億美元，低於去年同期。這主要是由於調整後的 EBITDA 較低，以及持續資本支出較高和淨利息支出較高。

Turning to the Alberta portfolio. The first quarter spot price averaged $40 per megawatt hour which was significantly lower than the average price of $99 per megawatt hour in 2024. The decline year over year was primarily due to incremental generation from the addition of new gas, wind, and solar supply in the province as well as benign weather in the quarter.

轉向阿爾伯塔投資組合。第一季現貨價格平均為每兆瓦時 40 美元，遠低於 2024 年每兆瓦時 99 美元的平均價格。年比下降主要是由於該省新增天然氣、風能和太陽能供應導致發電量增加，以及本季天氣溫和。

Throughout the quarter, we deployed hedging strategies to enhance our portfolio margins and mitigate the impact of lower merchant power prices, which resulted in realizing approximately 2,300 gigawatt hours of hedges at an average price of $71 per megawatt hour, a 178% premium to the average spot price.

整個季度，我們部署了對沖策略來提高我們的投資組合利潤率並減輕商業電價下跌的影響，最終實現了約 2,300 千兆瓦時的對沖，平均價格為每兆瓦時 71 美元，比平均現貨價格高出 178%。

In addition, our Hydro fleet delivered an average realized merchant price of $70 per megawatt hour, a 175% premium to the average spot price, while the gas fleet realized a 140% premium to the average spot price.

此外，我們的水力發電項目的平均實現商業價格為每兆瓦時 70 美元，比平均現貨價格高出 175%，而天然氣項目的平均現貨價格高出 140%。

Our merchant wind fleet cannot be used as firm power for hedging activities realized an average price of $20 per megawatt hour. By optimizing our fleet throughout the quarter and fulfilling hedges with purchase power, we were able to respond to higher demand from the ISO and deliver additional ancillary service volumes across the fleet.

我們的商用風電場不能用作對沖活動的穩定電力，平均價格為每兆瓦時 20 美元。透過在整個季度優化我們的船隊並透過購買力進行對沖，我們能夠響應 ISO 的更高需求並為整個船隊提供額外的輔助服務量。

In the quarter, our average realized price for ancillary services settled at $28 per megawatt hour or approximately 70% of the average spot price. Despite relatively benign weather in the quarter, which resulted in lower spot power prices, we captured additional margins by fulfilling a portion of our higher priced hedges with purchase power when prices were below our variable cost of production, leading to an overall realized price per megawatt hour produced of $122.

本季度，我們的輔助服務平均實現價格穩定在每兆瓦時 28 美元，約為平均現貨價格的 70%。儘管本季天氣相對溫和，導致現貨電價下降，但當電價低於我們的變動生產成本時，我們透過購買電力來履行部分高價對沖，從而獲得了額外的利潤，最終每兆瓦時發電的總實現價格為 122 美元。

The Alberta merchant portfolio continues to notably outperform the challenging spot price environment due to our hedging and optimization activities.

由於我們的對沖和優化活動，阿爾伯塔商人投資組合繼續顯著超越充滿挑戰的現貨價格環境。

Looking at the balance of the year, we have approximately 5,800 gigawatt hours of our Alberta generation hedged at an average price of $69 per megawatt hour, well above the current forward curve of $45 per megawatt hour. Going forward, we will continue to optimize our fleet and reduce production in low-priced high supply hours by fulfilling our financial hedges and customer requirements with open market purchases.

從全年來看，我們已對阿爾伯塔省約 5,800 吉瓦時的發電量進行了對沖，平均價格為每兆瓦時 69 美元，遠高於目前每兆瓦時 45 美元的遠期價格曲線。展望未來，我們將繼續優化我們的車隊，並透過公開市場採購來滿足我們的財務對沖和客戶要求，從而減少低價高供應時段的產量。

Looking at next year, our team has increased our hedge position to 6,400 gigawatt hours at an average price of $68 per megawatt hour, well above current forward pricing levels. As a result of hedging and optimization strategies and supported by the performance of our contracted fleet, we remain confident in our ability to achieve results in our guidance range for 2025 for both adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. As I stated last quarter, 75% of our 2025 expected generation revenue is underpinned by our contracted assets and hedging position.

展望明年，我們的團隊已將對沖部位增加至 6,400 吉瓦時，平均價格為每兆瓦時 68 美元，遠高於目前的遠期定價水準。由於對沖和優化策略以及我們簽約船隊表現的支持，我們仍然有信心在 2025 年實現調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流的指導範圍內的表現。正如我上個季度所說，我們 2025 年預期發電收入的 75% 是由我們的合約資產和對沖頭寸支撐的。

I'll now turn the call back over to John.

我現在將電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Joel. We remain focused on the following priorities for 2025. First, improving our leading and lagging safety performance indicators while achieving strong fleet availability. Second, delivering adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow within our 2025 guidance ranges.

謝謝你，喬爾。2025年，我們將繼續關注以下優先事項。首先，在實現強大的機隊可用性的同時，改善我們的領先和落後安全績效指標。其次，實現調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流達到我們 2025 年的指導範圍。

Third, maximizing the value of our legacy thermal energy campuses. Fourth, successfully executing on M&A opportunities that may arise and finally, implementing an upgrade to our ERP system.

第三，最大限度地發揮我們原有熱能園區的價值。第四，成功執行可能出現的併購機會，最後實施 ERP 系統的升級。

I believe TransAlta offers a compelling investment opportunity. We're a safe and reliable operator with strong cash flows, underpinned by our diversified hydro, wind, solar, and gas portfolio located across three countries and complemented by our leading asset optimization and energy marketing capabilities.

我相信 TransAlta 提供了一個極具吸引力的投資機會。我們是一家安全可靠的營運商，擁有強勁的現金流，以遍布三個國家的多元化水力發電、風能、太陽能和天然氣組合為基礎，並輔以領先的資產優化和能源行銷能力。

We are a clean electricity leader with a focus on tangible greenhouse gas emission reductions as we remain on track to achieve our ambitious 2026 CO2 emissions reduction target. There is tremendous value in our legacy thermal sites, which our team is actively working to repurpose to meet the evolving needs of customers.

我們是清潔電力領域的領導者，致力於切實減少溫室氣體排放，並將繼續朝著實現雄心勃勃的 2026 年二氧化碳減排目標邁進。我們的傳統熱電站具有巨大的價值，我們的團隊正在積極努力地重新利用它們，以滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。

We remain disciplined in our approach to growth, focused on delivering value to our shareholders. We're working to diversify our portfolio and increase the stability and contractedness of our cash flows through both existing as well as new assets, advancing a growth portfolio that can deliver meaningful reliable thermal opportunities as well as clean locally sourced power generation.

我們始終堅持嚴謹的成長方式，專注於為股東創造價值。我們正在努力實現投資組合多元化，並透過現有資產和新資產提高現金流的穩定性和收縮性，推進能夠提供有意義的可靠熱能機會以及清潔的本地發電的成長投資組合。

Our company has a sound financial foundation. Our balance sheet is flexible, and we have ample liquidity to pursue and deliver multiple growth opportunities with the ability to also return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

我公司財務基礎雄厚。我們的資產負債表靈活，我們擁有充足的流動性來追求和提供多種成長機會，同時也能夠透過股利和股票回購向股東返還資本。

And most importantly, we have our people. Our people are our greatest asset, and I want to thank all our employees and contractors for their commitment in setting the company up for success in 2025.

最重要的是，我們有自己的人民。員工是我們最大的財富，我要感謝我們所有的員工和承包商，感謝他們為公司在 2025 年取得成功所做的承諾。

Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to Stephanie.

謝謝。我現在將電話轉給史蒂芬妮。

Thank you, John. Operator Carmen, would you please open the call for questions from the analyst?

謝謝你，約翰。接線生卡門，請您打開電話，讓分析師提問好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Robert Hope, Scotiabank.

（操作員指示）加拿大豐業銀行羅伯特霍普 (Robert Hope)。

Maybe to start off with the Nova Clean Energy investments. How do you think about this investment and a 7% return relative to your existing US renewable development pipeline?

也許可以從 Nova Clean Energy 投資開始。您如何看待這項投資以及相對於您現有的美國再生能源開發管道而言 7% 的回報？

So when we think of Nova, we're not really thinking of it in the context of really the loan facility that we made available to them. That is something that enables a highly capable team to be able to move forward and execute on their business strategy, which we're supportive of.

因此，當我們想到 Nova 時，我們實際上並沒有從我們向他們提供的貸款便利的角度來考慮。這使得一支高能力的團隊能夠向前邁進並執行他們的業務策略，我們對此表示支持。

So the prize for us is not the 7% coupon that we'll be clipping for the next five years or so off of the credit facilities there. It's really about being able to take advantage of their development expertise, particularly as they focus on the Western United States with the view to exercising our exclusive first option that we have to acquire those projects and also direct the development of those projects to get preferential returns on those projects.

因此，對我們來說，獎勵並不是未來五年左右從那裡的信貸額度中剪下的 7% 的票面利率。這實際上是為了能夠利用他們的開發專業知識，特別是因為他們專注於美國西部，以期行使我們的獨家優先選擇權，即我們必須收購這些項目，並指導這些項目的開發以獲得這些項目的優先回報。

So really, the funding is enabling their team to actually create value substantively for us in the latter part of the decade as they advance projects in the WECC.

因此，實際上，這些資金使他們的團隊能夠在未來十年後期推進 WECC 項目，為我們創造實質的價值。

I appreciate that. And then in your prepared remarks, you noted that there's some challenges on organic growth for the industry, just given the current environment. Does this push you more towards M&A rather than building new projects, both on the renewable and the gas side?

我很感激。然後在您準備好的演講中，您指出，鑑於當前環境，該行業的有機成長面臨一些挑戰。這是否會促使你們在再生能源和天然氣方面更多地進行併購而不是建設新項目？

Yeah, Robert. I think -- so look, I mean, when we look at where we're trading, when we look at the cost, which have increased significantly for greenfield development, which puts pressure, frankly, on PPA prices and even the time to grow things, we're seeing better, and I would say, probably derisked opportunities more on the M&A side.

是的，羅伯特。我認為——所以看看，我的意思是，當我們看看我們的交易地點時，當我們看看成本時，綠地開發的成本已經大幅增加，坦率地說，這給 PPA 價格甚至發展時間帶來了壓力，我們看到了更好的情況，我想說，併購方面的風險降低機會可能更多。

So we do have a small M&A team. I would say they're pretty busy right now. They're busy in looking at a variety of projects, mostly, I would say, with the US flavor right now in terms of specific assets.

所以我們確實有一個小型的併購團隊。我想說他們現在非常忙。他們正忙於考察各種項目，我想說，目前大多數項目在具體資產方面都帶有美國特色。

The multiples that we're seeing for some types of contracted renewables and I think, candidly, more importantly for us, certain types of gas assets that are available work for where our company is and that candidly is a focus for us. And I think given our strong balance sheet and our free cash flow expectations over the next a little bit, that is a focus for us. I would say a priority.

我們看到某些類型的合約再生能源的倍數，坦白說，我認為對我們來說更重要的是，某些類型的可用天然氣資產適合我們公司所在地，坦白說這是我們關注的重點。我認為，鑑於我們強勁的資產負債表和未來一段時間的自由現金流預期，這是我們關注的重點。我想說的是優先事項。

Along with our legacy assets, Robert, which are core, we're setting the company up to deal with what I would call conventional greenfield growth in the latter part of the decade, which is really what Nova was about. But certainly, today, legacy investments which have much higher returns and also M&A which I think provide appropriate risk-adjusted returns are the way we're focused on it for sure.

羅伯特，除了我們的核心資產——遺留資產之外，我們還在為公司做好準備，以應對我所說的本世紀後半葉的傳統綠地增長，這正是 Nova 的真正目標。但可以肯定的是，今天，我們重點關注的是回報率更高的傳統投資以及能夠提供適當風險調整回報的併購。

Maurice Choy, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的莫里斯‧蔡 (Maurice Choy)。

Just sticking with the strategy discussion here. So I guess, when I listened to your prepared remarks, you mentioned diversifying your portfolio, so that's a geography or power marketing. And you also mentioned increasing stability and contract some free cash flow. So that's contracted versus merchant.

只是堅持這裡的策略討論。所以我想，當我聽你準備好的演講時，你提到了分散投資組合，所以這是一種地理或權力行銷。您還提到提高穩定性和收縮一些自由現金流。這就是合約與商人的關係。

So if I just think holistically about your strategy here, I'm trying to understand like what is the ideal outcome here, whether that's a three- or five-year plan. How do you see what markets you're planning to be in? And also to that end, given that you're not investment-grade credit rate, what is the contracted EBITDA target versus merchant?

因此，如果我全面考慮你的策略，我會試著了解理想的結果是什麼，無論是三年計畫還是五年計畫。您如何看待您計劃進入的市場？此外，鑑於您不是投資等級信用評級，與商家相比，合約規定的 EBITDA 目標是多少？

Look, I think if you were to look at where company was over the course of the last three or four years, and frankly, historically, you would have seen a company that was -- had probably about 50% of its being largely from Alberta and an equivalent amount that would have been merchant, which have been largely again in the province of Alberta.

聽著，我認為，如果你看看公司過去三四年的情況，坦白說，從歷史上看，你會看到一家公司——大概有 50% 的業務主要來自阿爾伯塔省，而等量的則是商人，而這些商人又主要在阿爾伯塔省。

I think as we roll forward -- and frankly, you're seeing it this year. I think you heard Joel say that about 75% of our revenue is effectively contracted in terms of what we're seeing evolve for the company. Our focus is on increasing that reliability and stability of the organization.

我認為隨著我們不斷前進——坦白說，今年你會看到這一點。我想你聽到喬爾說過，從我們看到的公司發展來看，我們大約 75% 的收入實際上已經收縮了。我們的重點是提高組織的可靠性和穩定性。

I think you'll see the cash contributions coming from the merchant fleet decline, I think, over time. And I think you'll see that Alberta, although continuing to be an important component of business for the company, be limited in terms of where we'll be putting capital in the future.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，你會看到商船隊的現金貢獻會下降。我想你會發現，儘管阿爾伯塔省仍然是公司業務的重要組成部分，但在未來資本投入方面卻受到限制。

I mean, as we learned with the Heartland acquisition, our ability to actually deploy more capital in the province of Alberta is restricted candidly from a competition perspective. So we are focused on the US. We do have Western Australia.

我的意思是，正如我們在 Heartland 收購案中所了解的那樣，從競爭的角度來看，我們在阿爾伯塔省實際部署更多資本的能力受到了限制。因此我們的重點是美國。我們確實有西澳大利亞。

And as we look at the growth that we're focused on, it all has a contracted feel to it. There might be a slight merchant position that our energy marketing team can trade around and create incremene and incremental returns given their expertise. But I think it's a natural evolution of the company.

當我們審視我們所關注的成長時，一切都給人一種收縮的感覺。我們的能源行銷團隊可以利用其專業知識進行交易，從而創造增量和增量回報。但我認為這是公司的自然演變。

And I think the point I'm trying to make is it's not accidental. It's something that we've been focused on doing deliberately over the course of the last few years and think ultimately, it's the way that we'll end up creating more value for our shareholders. I don't know, Joel, if you want to add anything to that.

我想我要表達的觀點是，這並非偶然。這是我們過去幾年來一直致力於做的事情，我們認為最終這是我們為股東創造更多價值的方式。喬爾，我不知道你是否想補充一些內容。

One other comment I would make to this is that today, we are roughly 52% contracted. And over time, we would like to be in excess of 70% contracted to have that stability to earnings and cash flows that we've been indicating as part of our strategy.

我對此要說的另一點是，今天我們的合約簽訂率約為 52%。隨著時間的推移，我們希望合約簽訂率超過 70%，以實現我們策略中所指出的收益和現金流的穩定性。

I think with that then comes a stronger business risk profile that ideally over time can improve our credit ratings as you've highlighted. As we think about how we become more contracted, we have that opportunity to improve our credit ratings. But again, it takes time.

我認為隨之而來的是更強的商業風險狀況，理想情況下隨著時間的推移可以提高我們的信用評級，正如您所強調的那樣。當我們思考如何變得更加契約化時，我們就有機會提高我們的信用評級。但這需要時間。

But I would say just on the credit rating point, I think we're very comfortable with our credit ratings today. We see no impediment to executing our strategy and all of the options that we have that we're pursuing in the organization.

但我想說，就信用評級而言，我認為我們對今天的信用評級非常滿意。我們認為，執行我們的策略以及我們在組織中追求的所有選擇沒有任何障礙。

And in many respects, I would say, Joel, is a bit of a sweet spot, frankly, in terms of balancing access to market, flexibility, and cost effectiveness in terms of the coupon. I mean, we just looked at our recent note offering, and it was very well received at very competitive pricing. So we feel very comfortable with where we are.

坦白說，我想說，在很多方面，喬爾在平衡優惠券的市場准入、靈活性和成本效益方面都達到了一個最佳平衡點。我的意思是，我們剛剛看了我們最近發行的票據，它以極具競爭力的價格獲得了很好的反響。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

Understood. Understanding of the reliance on the Alberta market might decrease in the coming years. Still focusing on Alberta, what have you been hearing or are you expecting in terms of how the new federal government in Canada might have (inaudible) of the [OPPS] standards, the clean electricity regulations, or even industrial carbon tax?

明白了。未來幾年對阿爾伯塔市場的依賴程度可能會降低。仍然關注阿爾伯塔省，您對加拿大新聯邦政府可能如何制定（聽不清楚）[OPPS] 標準、清潔電力法規甚至工業碳稅有什麼看法或期待？

Yeah, I'd say -- it's pretty early, I would say, Maurice, on that. I mean we don't even have ministers yet, frankly, in the portfolios under a Carney government.

是的，我想說——莫里斯，現在說這還太早。我的意思是，坦白說，在卡尼政府的領導下，我們甚至還沒有部長。

Our working, I would say, assumption which is supported by some of the preliminary discussions we have had is it's a status quo, I would say right now. We're not -- at least in terms of our business planning -- expecting any ant shifts from what we've been experiencing the last period.

我想說，我們的工作假設得到了我們進行的一些初步討論的支持，那就是現在這就是現狀。至少從我們的業務規劃來看，我們並不期待與上一期相比出現任何重大轉變。

The one thing that we have communicated would be just a reminder that it's critically important that from a carbon pricing perspective, we remain pretty competitive with our most significant trading partners. And it's not lost on certainly us, and I know many businesses in Canada that having a divergence there.

我們所傳達的一點只是提醒我們，從碳定價的角度來看，與我們最重要的貿易夥伴保持相當的競爭力至關重要。我們當然沒有忽視這一點，我知道加拿大的許多企業都存在分歧。

Even if you're trying to adjust for it for export exposed, businesses creates a bit of a challenge. So that's a theme that we'll continue to speak to the government about. But right now, very difficult to say. So we're -- our expectation is a steady regulatory environment at the federal level.

即使你試圖針對出口情況進行調整，企業也會面臨一些挑戰。因此，我們將繼續與政府討論這個主題。但現在還很難說。因此，我們期望聯邦層級的監管環境穩定。

Are any of these policy landscape -- or even the REM, are any of these in your discussions with the data center counterparties major hurdles, whether that particularly about a time line delay or even absolute obstacles to have anything in Alberta?

這些政策環境，甚至是 REM，在您與資料中心交易對手的討論中是否存在重大障礙，無論是關於時間線延遲，還是在阿爾伯塔省發生任何事情的絕對障礙？

I think the simple answer to that right now would be no, that hasn't been a major issue in any of the discussions we've been having from a data center opportunity perspective. I would say generally -- and I would go so far as to say, Blain, even in our discussions around Centralia, we tend to focus on the Canadian regulatory environment.

我認為現在對此問題的簡單回答是否定的，從資料中心機會的角度來看，這在我們進行的任何討論中都不是一個主要問題。我想說，一般來說——我甚至會說，布萊恩，即使在我們圍繞森特勒利亞的討論中，我們也傾向於關注加拿大的監管環境。

I mean we -- it's not like we're worried about federal or state/provincial regulations upending our focus on extracting value from our legacy assets. The only thing it's done from a data center perspective is we are focused on how we can use the renewable credits that are generated from our considerable renewables fleet in the province of Alberta to defray or reduce the carbon exposure from the offering that we would make from a data center perspective.

我的意思是，我們並不擔心聯邦或州/省法規會顛覆我們從遺留資產中提取價值的重點。從資料中心的角度來看，我們唯一做的事情就是專注於如何利用我們在阿爾伯塔省的大量可再生能源所產生的可再生能源信用額度來支付或減少我們從資料中心角度提供的服務所產生的碳排放。

And that's something that we uniquely can do in the province of Alberta. But generally speaking, it has not been a critical path discussion, if I can put it that.

這是我們阿爾伯塔省獨有的舉措。但總的來說，這並不是一次關鍵路徑討論，如果我可以這麼說的話。

Benjamin Pham, BMO.

班傑明‧範 (Benjamin Pham)，BMO。

Maybe a first question on the (inaudible) data center. You've put the size and the focus and your Phase 3 at this point. Do you -- are you sure you get the sense that even though the focus is 400 megawatts plus that in your discussions that there's room for that to be scaled up over the medium to long term as part of those negotiations?

也許第一個問題是關於（聽不清楚）資料中心的。此時，您已經確定了規模、焦點和第三階段。您是否確定，儘管在您的討論中重點是 400 兆瓦以上，但作為談判的一部分，在中長期內仍有擴大的空間？

The initial discussions that we've been having have been primarily focused on the base 400 megawatts candidly. I think people know that we have the ability to add 400. And in fact, our [Q] application contemplates that we would do an 800-megawatt development there.

坦白說，我們最初的討論主要集中在 400 兆瓦的基礎電力上。我想人們知道我們有能力增加 400。事實上，我們的 [Q] 申請設想我們將在那裡進行 800 兆瓦的開發。

But right now, we're -- the focus is on things being sequential. But I would say that it is attractive to be able to tell people, at least in the discussions that we've been having, that if the demand is there or the long-term planning is there that anticipates them scaling up, that is something that we can do on site there.

但現在，我們的重點是事情的連續性。但我想說，至少在我們一直在進行的討論中，能夠告訴人們，如果有需求，或者有長期規劃預計他們會擴大規模，那麼我們就可以在現場做一些事情，這是很有吸引力的。

And one of the great things about that area is that we've got, I think it's, 1.2 gigawatts of transmission access in that particular location. I think it's actually about 2.1 gig at Sundance, which is obviously a later and more of a redevelopment. But I think we're in pretty good shape there.

該地區的一大優點是，我們在那個特定位置擁有 1.2 千兆瓦的傳輸存取。我認為聖丹斯電影節實際上有 2.1 場演出，這顯然是後來的一次重建。但我認為我們的情況相當不錯。

So like our base offering is on the four with the ability to expand to eight. And most of the technical work, I would say that we've done is mostly focused on that 400-megawatt K2 offering.

因此，我們的基本產品是四種，但可以擴展到八種。我想說，我們所做的大部分技術工作主要集中在 400 兆瓦的 K2 產品上。

Okay. Got it. And then to stay the gas development on Centralia. Is the thinking on timing on that -- is that more of a later year update on that or maybe something maybe before midyear?

好的。知道了。然後繼續在森特勒利亞進行天然氣開發。關於時間的思考－是在年末更新，還是在年中之前更新？

So it's more of the latter. We're pretty -- I would say, from a commercial perspective, I'm pretty happy with how things are advancing. So looking -- and Blain has been doing a great job here of pushing that forward, and I'll turn it over to him to give you a sense of timing.

所以更多的是後者。我們非常——我想說，從商業角度來看，我對事情的進展感到非常滿意。所以看起來——布萊恩在這裡一直出色地推動著這一進程，我將把時間交給他，讓你們了解一下時機。

But we're pretty advanced on things like pricing, time lines, permitting, the nature, tenor, all those kinds. But Blain, maybe you can give a little bit of color too.

但我們在定價、時間表、許可、性質、期限等各個方面都相當先進。但是布萊恩，也許你也可以給一點顏色看看。

I think that's accurate, John. Targeting something in midyear here. So as I said, we've advanced a lot of those commercial discussions just working with our customer there to finalize some terms to get something that would be able.

我認為這是正確的，約翰。這裡的目標是年中某件事。正如我所說，我們已經推進了許多商業討論，只是與我們的客戶合作，敲定一些條款以獲得一些能夠實現的東西。

We have commenced a lot of the prefeed engineering work, a lot of work done on what we need to do from a permitting standpoint so that when we do get some definitive agreements in place, we can hit the ground running, get the permits in place, and move forward with some more definitive engineering to allow us the construction start as soon as possible.

我們已經開始了大量的前期工程工作，從許可的角度完成了大量我們需要做的工作，以便當我們達成一些最終協議時，我們就可以立即開始工作，獲得許可證，並推進一些更明確的工程，以便我們盡快開始施工。

And Ben, what I would say is the tenor is a real -- that we're exploring would be a real positive one from a company perspective. It's something we can do pretty quickly and candidly, the cost per megawatt of delivering 670 megawatts to our customer is just a fraction of what a new build would be both from a timing and from a capital perspective. So we're pretty excited about that. It's pretty advanced.

本，我想說的是，我們正在探索的基調是真實的——從公司的角度來看，這將是一個真正積極的基調。我們可以非常快速和坦率地做到這一點，從時間和資本角度來看，向我們的客戶提供 670 兆瓦的每兆瓦成本只是新建成本的一小部分。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。它相當先進。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

朱利安·杜穆林·史密斯（Julien Dumoulin-Smith），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

This is Tanner on for Julien. Just a question on hedging here, and thank you for the commentary on the hedge build in '25 and in 2026. Can you speak to your perspective hedging strategy in the outer years of the plan? Are you seeing opportunities to add significant positions in future years given the status of the forward curve? And how do you expect this to evolve over time?

這是 Tanner 代替 Julien 上場的。這裡只是一個關於對沖的問題，感謝您對 25 年和 2026 年對沖建設的評論。您能否談談您在該計劃未來幾年的對沖策略前景？鑑於遠期曲線的狀況，您是否看到未來幾年增加重要職位的機會？您預計這種情況會隨著時間的推移而如何發展？

So look, hedging is actually probably one of the biggest focuses that we have, and I'm speaking primarily here in relation to the province of Alberta. So we're pretty heavily hedged, I would say, for 2025.

所以，對沖實際上可能是我們關注的重點之一，我在這裡主要談論的是阿爾伯塔省。所以我想說，我們對 2025 年的預測已經做了相當多的避險。

And Blain, again, our optimization team reports into Blain. When we look at full year 2026, I think we're in -- we're about -- sorry, 6,500 gigawatt hours of hedges that we're at. They're at a price that's roughly in that $68 range going forward, whereas the forward curve for 2026 in the province of Alberta is in the low to mid-40%s right now. I think the last numbers I had was it was around 44%, 40%, to 30% for 2026.

布萊恩，我們的優化團隊再次向布萊恩報告。當我們展望 2026 年全年時，我認為我們的對沖量大約是 6,500 千兆瓦時。目前它們的價格大約在 68 美元左右，而阿爾伯塔省 2026 年的遠期曲線目前處於 40% 的低點至中位數。我記得我得到的最新數字是，到 2026 年，這一比例大約是 44%、40% 至 30%。

We continue to add positions in 2027 and beyond, probably in the range of 35% or 40% of our hedge position includes our commercial and industrial book in the province of Alberta. That would typically have about a three-year tenure and our customers tend to be, I would say, Blain relatively sticky there.

我們將在 2027 年及以後繼續增加倉位，大概我們的對沖倉位的 35% 或 40% 左右包括我們在阿爾伯塔省的商業和工業賬簿。這通常需要大約三年的時間，我想說，我們的客戶往往對布萊恩的合作關係比較執著。

Although the prices that we're able to obtain in the C&I business have come down a little bit. They are at a significant premium to what we are seeing the wholesale forward price be. So like if one is in the mid-40s we're still able to extract north of $60, I would say, a megawatt hour, substantially above $60 a megawatt hour through our C&I business.

儘管我們在 C&I 業務中能夠獲得的價格已經略有下降。它們的價格比我們所看到的批發遠期價格高出很多。因此，如果價格在 40 美元左右，我們仍然能夠以每兆瓦時 60 美元以上的價格開採電力，我想說，透過我們的 C&I 業務，這一價格大大高於每兆瓦時 60 美元。

Another development that's occurred in the province of Alberta is one of our competitors in the C&I space is deemphasizing their C&I business. They're shifting a little bit on that, and this is a secret is. It's NMAX who's been focusing on that.

阿爾伯塔省發生的另一個事態是，我們在 C&I 領域的競爭對手之一正在淡化其 C&I 業務。他們對此稍有改變，這是一個秘密。NMAX 一直專注於此。

So we're now -- I think if we're not the largest, we're pretty close to being the largest C&I provider in the province. So that's a real focus for us. So that would be one. The other one would be just our focus on data centers, like candidly, we're trying to reduce the merchant exposure effectively of that Alberta fleet and it contracted up whether it's the financial hedges.

所以我們現在——我想如果我們不是最大的，我們也非常接近成為省內最大的 C&I 提供者。所以這是我們真正關注的重點。所以這就是其中之一。另一個是我們對資料中心的關注，坦白說，我們正在嘗試有效地減少阿爾伯塔省艦隊的商業風險，並且無論它是否是金融對沖，它都收縮了。

And there's a little bit of liquidity going forward, I would say, Blain, it's more our C&I business. and what we're doing with our data center strategy. Blain, I don't know if there was anything for you to add (inaudible).

布萊恩，我想說，未來會有一點流動性，這更多的是我們的 C&I 業務，以及我們正在實施的資料中心策略。Blain，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的（聽不清楚）。

I think that's a good point, John. We made a concerted effort in the last few years to increase the size of that C&I business, knowing the premiums that we extract from it. We did a strategic acquisition of a different smaller portfolio two years ago, brought those customers on to our portfolio and then really have used that as a strategic competitive advantage to get our contracted levels of the upper merchant fleet higher.

我認為這是一個很好的觀點，約翰。在過去幾年裡，我們齊心協力擴大 C&I 業務的規模，因為我們知道從中可以獲得多少保費。兩年前，我們對另一個較小的投資組合進行了策略性收購，將這些客戶納入我們的投資組合，然後真正將其作為戰略競爭優勢，以提高我們上層商船隊的合約水準。

I mean we foresaw 3, 3.5, 4 years ago that we were expecting an oversupply situation like the one that we find ourselves in with pricing. But candidly, it's pretty close to where we were forecasting was going to be the case. So this isn't something that we've worked on (inaudible) I'd say it's something that we've been really focused on over the course of really since about 2020, 2021.

我的意思是，我們在 3 年、3.5 年、4 年前就預見了供應過剩的情況，就像我們現在在定價時遇到的情況一樣。但坦白說，這與我們預測的情況非常接近。所以這不是我們一直在研究的事情（聽不清楚），我想說這是我們從 2020 年、2021 年左右就開始真正關注的事情。

Great. And then the free cash flow was a little softer in the first quarter, but there's still confidence in the full year guide, just acknowledging the hedge dynamics, of course. But perhaps, can you explain the quarter-by-quarter cash dynamics you're expecting through the end of the year? And what might be some drivers or what items that move you towards the top or bottom end of the guidance range?

偉大的。然後，第一季的自由現金流略有減弱，但對全年指南仍然充滿信心，當然只是承認對沖動態。但也許，您能解釋一下您預計到年底的逐季現金動態嗎？哪些驅動因素或因素會使您接近指導範圍的上限或下限？

Yeah. No, we are confident in hitting our free cash flow measure, which is our principal measure. That's the one that we primarily focus on as a company.

是的。不，我們有信心實現我們的自由現金流指標，這是我們的主要指標。這是我們公司主要關注的重點。

Look, we've got our hedge position going forward. I'd say Q1 was relatively atypical from a weather perspective. It was (inaudible) as you could expect going forward. So if we end up with more typical weather, especially in Q3 and the latter part of Q2, we're very much focused on costs, I would say, internally within the organization, and that's something that we're working hard to make sure that we manage.

瞧，我們已經做好了未來的避險準備。我想說，從天氣角度來看，第一季相對不典型。正如您所期望的那樣（聽不清楚）。因此，如果我們最終遇到更典型的天氣，特別是在第三季和第二季的後半段，我們會非常關注成本，我想說，在組織內部，這是我們正在努力確保管理的事情。

And we've already had a fair bit of sustaining capital spend from where we did a little bit of gas work, certainly as compared to what it was like, I think, in the first quarter of 2024. So there's a number of puts and takes.

而且，我們在天然氣工程方面已經進行了相當多的維持資本支出，當然與 2024 年第一季的情況相比。因此，存在許多得失。

And so we remain confident in our ability to get there. We like our hedge position. I think we like our fuel costs and where they are going forward. I think the fleet availability has been excellent. So when we get opportunities, I think we can flex up particularly here in the province of Alberta. So we remain pretty confident in our ability to get there.

因此，我們對自己實現目標的能力充滿信心。我們喜歡我們的對沖頭寸。我認為我們對我們的燃料成本以及未來的發展方向感到滿意。我認為船隊的可用性非常好。因此，當我們獲得機會時，我認為我們可以發揮自己的優勢，特別是在阿爾伯塔省。因此，我們對於實現這一目標的能力仍然充滿信心。

Patrick Kenny, NBF.

派崔克·肯尼，NBF。

Just on Centralia, John, you mentioned being agnostic on technology. But I guess, as you approach the finish line here from a commercial standpoint, would you say you're also agnostic on the type of customer as well, just in terms of behind the meter versus utility customers? And I guess, how should we be thinking about your internal hurdle rates or target build multiples for some of the larger utility-based ideas for Centralia versus, say, the key pills opportunity with a single offtaker?

就在 Centralia，約翰，你提到了對科技的不可知論。但是我想，當您從商業角度接近終點線時，您是否會說您對客戶類型也同樣不可知，只是就電錶後客戶和公用事業客戶而言？我想，我們應該如何考慮 Centralia 的一些較大的基於實用性的想法的內部最低收益率或目標構建倍數，而不是單一承購商的關鍵藥丸機會？

So with respect to Centralia, look, our returns I think, are strong, i mean, candidly, stronger than we'd be able to get on a conventional new build greenfield project and probably. I would say stronger than you'd expected an M&A transaction, Patrick.

因此，就 Centralia 而言，我認為我們的回報是強勁的，坦白說，比我們在傳統的新建綠地專案上獲得的回報要強勁。我想說的是，這比你預期的併購交易要強勁，帕特里克。

It's a similar story with respect to data centers. And I mean, the trick there is repurposing capital in part. We are spending capital to make the facilities use or fit for purpose. So the real prize is really repurposing and extending the look of the legacy assets.

資料中心的情況也類似。我的意思是，這裡的訣竅在於部分地重新利用資本。我們正在投入資金來使這些設施能夠發揮作用或適合其用途。因此，真正的獎勵是重新利用和擴展遺留資產的外觀。

One of the things that we're working on at Centralia, which is a little bit unique is we are actually a bit gas constrained there from a supply perspective. So although we're feeling very comfortable that we'll be in a position where we can deal with a Blain, a 670-megawatt gas plant to meet the need of our customer there.

我們在森特勒利亞所進行的工作之一就是，從供應角度來看，那裡的天然氣供應確實有點受限，這點比較特殊。因此，儘管我們感到非常舒服，但我們將能夠與布萊恩 (Blain) 合作，建造一座 670 兆瓦的天然氣發電廠，以滿足那裡的客戶的需求。

In terms of incremental thermal capacity at site at Centralia, I think that's going to probably require a bit of debottlenecking to actually take place. So the next phase tends to be a bit greener is what I would say in terms of growth there.

就 Centralia 現場增量熱容量而言，我認為實際上可能需要進行一些瓶頸消除。因此，我認為，就成長而言，下一階段將會更加綠色。

So wind, potentially a little bit of solar with what I would call more conventional returns. So those are important to us. The priority right now is more on the coal to gas conversion that we would be focused there. If we could debottleneck the site, candidly, it's an ideal location for data where we've got 12,000 acres of land there.

因此，風能，可能還有一點太陽能，我稱之為更傳統的回報。所以這些對我們很重要。我們現在的重點是煤炭向天然氣的轉化，我們將把重點放在那裡。如果我們能夠消除該地點的瓶頸，坦白說，它是儲存資料的理想位置，我們在那裡擁有 12,000 英畝的土地。

It would be just from a geographic location about as good as you could get. So it is a bit of work that we're doing to see if we could do more. With respect to key pillars, again, very good returns and much more constrained, obviously, from a gas perspective. So that -- it's unrestricted opportunity there.

從地理位置來看，這大概就是你能找到的最適合的位置了。因此，我們正在做一些工作，看看是否可以做得更多。就關鍵支柱而言，從天然氣的角度來看，回報非常好，但顯然受到的限制更多。所以——這是一個不受限制的機會。

I don't know if that answers your question, Patrick, but I'm just trying to give you a bit of color.

我不知道這是否回答了你的問題，派崔克，但我只是想給你一點說明。

Yeah, that's great. It sounds like on par, I guess, from a later phase perspective. And then just on the strategy to look for opportunities to diversify the portfolio outside of Alberta, I know it's early days here with respect to BC's call for power. But just curious, your initial thoughts on pursuing any greenfield opportunities in the province or whether or not you might have any low-hanging fruit to go after.

是的，太棒了。我想，從後期的角度來看，這聽起來是相當的。然後，就尋找機會在阿爾伯塔省以外實現投資組合多元化的策略而言，我知道就 BC 省對權力的呼籲而言，現在還為時過早。但只是好奇，您對在該省尋求任何綠地機會的初步想法，或者您是否可能有任何唾手可得的機會。

Yes. We're not -- I'll be candid. We're really not all that focused on BC as a core market. So that is an area that the team is really set up to participate in. I would say our primary focus in the more immediate term in terms of facilities, both organic growth, but certainly M&A growth, would be in the Western United States.

是的。我們不是──我會坦白的。我們實際上並沒有將 BC 作為核心市場。所以這是該團隊真正準備參與的領域。我想說，就設施而言，我們近期的主要關注點，包括有機成長，當然還有併購成長，都將在美國西部。

We're really trying to match the skill set that we have as an organization, especially in our energy marketing group, with the opportunities that we see. We like the long-term fundamentals of the market there. I think they're excellent candidly.

我們確實在努力將我們作為一個組織所擁有的技能，特別是我們的能源行銷團隊的技能，與我們看到的機會相匹配。我們看好那裡市場的長期基本面。我坦率地認為他們非常優秀。

And when we talk of the Western US, it's all around California, not so much in California, if you see what I'm saying. So we like some of the return multiples that we're seeing there, and that's a real focus. Particularly, the Pac Northwest and the Desert Southwest with the ability to be able to flow power in and out of California would be, I would say, Joel, Blain top of the wish list in terms of what the focus would be, Patrick.

當我們談論美國西部時，指的是加州周圍，而不是加州本身，如果你明白我的意思。因此，我們喜歡我們在那裡看到的一些回報倍數，這是一個真正的焦點。特別是太平洋西北地區和沙漠西南地區，它們能夠將電力輸送進出加利福尼亞，我想說，就重點而言，喬爾、布萊恩和帕特里克最希望看到的是這兩個地區。

Got it. Okay. And then just coming back to Alberta on the REM. I know the final rules are still TBD. But from what you're hearing on the ground, how do you foresee the value of ancillary services trending in the province under the new design and some of the new parameters being proposed, just given how the supply-demand dynamics have changed over the last past five years or so. And I guess, where might you see some upside across your Alberta portfolio with respect to ancillary?

知道了。好的。然後搭乘 REM 回到阿爾伯塔。我知道最終規則仍有待確定。但是從您在現場聽到的情況來看，考慮到過去五年左右供需動態的變化，您如何預見在新的設計和一些新提出的參數下該省輔助服務的價值趨勢。我想，您認為阿爾伯塔省投資組合在輔助產品上有哪些優勢？

Yeah. So look, we're -- as you know, there was a bit of a pivot that took place losing track of time now, probably three weeks ago or so. And so we're reworking all of those assumptions. I would say thematically, for ancillary services, two things.

是的。所以你看，我們——正如你所知，現在發生了一些轉變，忘記了時間，大概是三週前左右。因此，我們正在重新審視所有這些假設。從主題上來說，對於輔助服務，我想說兩件事。

I would say, one, we are expecting more volumes to be procured over time. And I think from just a competitiveness perspective, we really like what our fleet can do. And frankly, we're even exploring a little project.

我想說，首先，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們將採購更多的數量。我認為，從競爭力的角度來看，我們真的很喜歡我們的車隊所能發揮的作用。坦白說，我們甚至正在探索一個小項目。

We've got a capital project that we could do to actually even enhance our ability to provide off of our hydro, more ancillary services going forward. I also think with the lifting of some of the price gaps that we've had in the province, when you see a bunch of volatility, that's when you might see more benefit from the fleet.

我們有一個資本項目，可以實際上增強我們利用水力發電的能力，提供更多輔助服務。我還認為，隨著我們省內一些價格差距的縮小，當你看到大量波動時，你可能會從車隊中看到更多收益。

So I'd say we're pretty optimistic both from a volume perspective and from a pricing perspective over time as we take a longer-term view on where this is going to go. I mean the reality remains that from a supply and demand perspective, we're a bit oversupplied in the province in the near term, which is something that we knew was the case.

因此我想說，從銷售角度和定價角度來看，我們對未來發展都相當樂觀，因為我們對未來發展有更長遠的展望。我的意思是，現實情況是，從供需角度來看，我們省短期內會出現供應過剩的情況，我們知道這種情況。

But I'd say, I don't know, Blain, as we look at the balance of the decade, we're I'd (inaudible) optimistic in terms of what it be.

但我想說，布萊恩，我不知道，當我們回顧未來十年的平衡時，我們對它將會是什麼感到（聽不清楚）樂觀。

I would agree, John, as we refresh some of our modeling currently that we're doing right now, we start to see prices improve relatively well through 2028 and into 2029. So just this little wall here as we chew through this.

約翰，我同意這一點，隨著我們更新目前正在進行的一些模型，我們開始看到價格在 2028 年和 2029 年將相對較好地改善。因此，當我們仔細研究這個問題時，這裡就只有這堵小牆。

And with respect to the ancillary services, Patrick, it really comes to a fundamental hypothesis that as the grid continues to bring online more renewables, the need for balancing and frequency response and fast ramping units to maintain that great reliability will become ever more important. And there'll have to be value put to that to pay for it.

關於輔助服務，帕特里克，這實際上涉及到一個基本假設，即隨著電網繼續將更多的可再生能源投入使用，平衡和頻率響應以及快速斜坡裝置以保持高可靠性的需求將變得越來越重要。並且必須賦予其價值才能支付它。

Yeah. So and you've seen this before, Patrick, where we go through these periods where we've had some additions to the system and it takes three or four years to be digested and then things tighten up. So we're working through it right now. And you heard what Blain said. So I think that's all right.

是的。所以，派崔克，你以前也看到過這種情況，我們經歷過這樣的時期，系統中添加了一些內容，需要三到四年的時間來消化，然後事情就會變得緊張。所以我們現在正在努力解決這個問題。你也聽到布萊恩說的話了。所以我認為這沒問題。

John Mould, TD Cowen.

約翰·莫爾德（John Mould），TD Cowen。

First, maybe going back to the Alberta data centers. And we're supposed to get this update from the ISO this month. Just wondering if you can give us a bit of a preview on what you're hoping for from ISO in terms of the methodology that they may use to allocate available capacity to proposals?

首先，也許會回到阿爾伯塔資料中心。我們應該會在本月從 ISO 獲得此更新。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們簡要介紹一下您希望 ISO 採取哪些方法來為提案分配可用容量？

And you previously articulated a view that there's about 1.5 to 2 gigawatts of good capacity that should be available for large loads over the midterm. Just wondering, have you seen anything so far in market dynamics, just given the supply increase from last year that would cause you to change that view one way or another?

您之前曾表達過這樣的觀點：中期內大約有 1.5 至 2 千兆瓦的良好容量可供大負載使用。只是想知道，鑑於去年供應量的增加，到目前為止，您是否看到市場動態中的任何變化會讓您以某種方式改變這種觀點？

Look, we're waiting for the ISO to come in and provide some clarity on these issues as well. I can tell you that we have had some discussions, including what we're proposing to do. And our product is a little bit unique because it is more behind the meter in terms of what we're proposing.

瞧，我們正在等待 ISO 的介入並對這些問題提供一些澄清。我可以告訴你，我們已經進行了一些討論，包括我們提議要做的事情。我們的產品有點獨特，因為就我們所提議的而言，它更落後於儀表。

So we would be looking, in our case, to be supplying 90% plus of the data center needs from our facility effectively behind the meter and then like looking to the market for 10% to 12% of the time to meet the load that it would require. So it's relatively -- given our configuration which is a bit different from some of the others, relatively modest, I would say, impact generally.

因此，在我們的案例中，我們希望透過我們的設施有效地滿足資料中心 90% 以上的電力需求，然後用 10% 到 12% 的時間尋求市場來滿足所需的負載。因此，考慮到我們的配置與其他配置略有不同，我認為整體影響相對較小。

In terms of overall numbers before reliability becomes an issue, I still think we're in that 1 to 2 gigs. I haven't -- at least that's based on the work that we've done. We'll see where the ISO lands. I've had some very high-level discussions around that with them, and I didn't take away -- I know they're still doing their work -- any sense that that will go in a significantly different direction from that. So we're -- we feel good about that.

就可靠性成為問題之前的總體數字而言，我仍然認為我們處於 1 到 2 個演出的水平。我沒有——至少根據我們所做的工作來看是這樣。我們將會看到 ISO 的最終結果。我已經與他們就此進行了一些非常高層的討論，而且我並沒有感覺到——我知道他們仍在做他們的工作——事情會朝著與此截然不同的方向發展。所以我們——我們對此感覺很好。

The other thing is some of our units like even if you look at K2, relatively lower capacity factors. So it is effectively like bringing new capacity to the market if you have a plant that's running 30% of the time and now, you're going to be running at 90% or 92% of the time, which is what we're estimating we'll be able to do for our plants.

另一件事是，我們的一些單位，例如，即使你看 K2，容量係數也相對較低。因此，這實際上就像是向市場引入了新的產能，如果你的工廠的運行時間是 30%，那麼現在你的工廠的運行時間將達到 90% 或 92%，這就是我們估計我們能夠為我們的工廠做到的。

So we are effectively bringing new capacity to be able to move forward. And I think certainly, the ISO understands that. In terms of the [Q] and the interconnection and the work around that, like again, I'm guardedly optimistic there to -- there's a tremendous number of applications.

因此，我們正在有效地帶來新的產能，以便能夠向前發展。我認為 ISO 肯定明白這一點。就[Q]和互連以及圍繞它的工作而言，我再次持謹慎樂觀的態度——有大量的應用程式。

We certainly don't think they're all real. And I think the ISO is going to look at it, I think, by an order of commercialization effectively. So -- and I think that's the way they should look at it,, like what's real versus what might be more speculative going forward.

我們當然不認為它們都是真的。我認為 ISO 將會按照商業化的順序有效地審視這個問題。所以——我認為他們應該這樣看待這個問題，看看什麼是真實的，什麼可能是未來的推測。

So I think they're taking a pretty responsible and rational approach where, hopefully, we'll be able to bring some of the opportunities into the province before we need to have some of the harder discussions around transmission and incremental generation.

因此，我認為他們採取了非常負責任和理性的方法，希望我們能夠在就輸電和增量發電進行一些更艱難的討論之前，為該省帶來一些機會。

And I don't think it's lost on the ISO that the capacity for these things ideally is located where existing capacity in generation and transmission exists, which is really around our facilities and obviously, [Genesee] as well further down and potentially even at shares (inaudible). So net-net, I'd say, pretty good in terms of where we are.

我認為，獨立系統營運商 (ISO) 不會忽視這一點：理想情況下，這些設施的容量應該位於現有發電和輸電容量所在的地方，也就是我們的設施周圍，顯然，[Genesee] 也位於更遠的地方，甚至可能位於股票市場（聽不清楚）。所以，我想說，就我們現在的狀況而言，整體來說還不錯。

Okay. That's great. And then maybe just going back to your just broader market interest and the comment about the reliance on Alberta decreasing over time. And as you noted, a function of your scale in the market, you're focused with Nova is in the Western US and earlier question you highlighted like Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest.

好的。那太棒了。然後也許只是回到你更廣泛的市場興趣和關於對阿爾伯塔的依賴隨著時間的推移而減少的評論。正如您所說，根據您在市場中的規模，您重點關注的是 Nova 在美國西部以及您之前提到的太平洋西北部和沙漠西南部地區。

Just when you're thinking about where you want to allocate that growth capital? Is it mainly the Western US that you're looking at, at this point? Are there other key markets whether you'd like to grow your existing footprint? Or maybe you'd like to enter at some scale where you are right now. How are you thinking about that?

您是否正在考慮將成長資本分配到哪裡？目前，您主要關注的是美國西部嗎？是否有其他主要市場，您是否願意擴大現有的業務範圍？或者也許您想以現在的規模進入。您對此有何看法？

So when we look at the geographies and look, we'll be having our strategy session later in the year where we'll be going through all of this in a bit more, deep with everybody. But when we look at the areas of focused growth for the company going forward, we really look at, I would say, three things. We look at the fundamental dynamics of the markets in question.

因此，當我們審視地理位置時，我們將在今年稍後召開策略會議，與大家更深入地討論所有這些問題。但當我們審視公司未來重點成長領域時，我想說，我們真正關注的是三件事。我們研究相關市場的基本動態。

So what is the fidelity of pricing? How is it from a transmission perspective? It doesn't have population and industrial growth. From a long-term perspective, where do we think pricing is going? So it really is a deconstructive deep dive of the geography and questions. So that's first and foremost. It's like how do we feel about this jurisdiction versus that jurisdiction from a focus perspective.

那麼定價的保真度是多少呢？從傳輸角度來看情況如何？它沒有人口和工業成長。從長遠來看，我們認為定價將走向何方？所以這其實是對地理和問題的解構性深入研究。這是首要的。這就像從焦點角度來看我們對這個司法管轄區和那個司法管轄區有何感受。

Number two, we look at it from an operational perspective. Is there a fuel type that we are good at operating? And as you know, we've got quite a diverse skill set there. Are there synergies? Are there strategies that we can bring from an M&A perspective that would make sense given our footprint in the United States and Canada?

第二，我們從營運的角度來看這個問題。有沒有我們擅長操作的燃料類型？如你所知，我們擁有相當多樣化的技能。有協同效應嗎？從併購的角度來看，考慮到我們在美國和加拿大的業務，我們是否可以提出一些合理的策略？

Existing footprints in the United States, Canada and Australia, where we could add value. So there's that operational dimension. The last one is how can we add incremental value because of our customer relations relationships at our Energy Marketing capabilities.

我們在美國、加拿大和澳洲已有業務，可以在那裡增加價值。因此，存在一個操作層面。最後一個問題是，我們如何透過與客戶的關係在我們的能源行銷能力中增加增量價值。

And that also directs us to particular geographies because of the skill sets that we have there in our positions. Like a lot of people don't realize it, but we're the largest trader of power in the Pacific Northwest, for example. It is a market that we're intimately familiar with.

這也引導我們前往特定的地區，因為我們在各自的職位上擁有相應的技能。很多人可能沒有意識到，但我們是太平洋西北地區最大的電力貿易商。這是我們非常熟悉的市場。

So when you distill it all down, we've got three major areas of focus. Alberta is one just because of our scale and size of where we are here and our intimate understanding of the market here. But when we look at scale and scope, Alberta is pretty small.

因此，當你把所有這一切提煉出來時，我們有三個主要關注領域。阿爾伯塔省就是其中之一，因為我們在這裡的規模和範圍，以及我們對這裡市場的深入了解。但從規模和範圍來看，阿爾伯塔省相當小。

When we look at scale and scope, an opportunity set going forward, certainly, we feel great about the US generally, I would say, and the Western US in particular, given some of the factors that I spoke about and also Western Australia as well. But if you were to ze those three markets, I think that the US would be the area of greatest interest.

當我們考慮規模和範圍以及未來的機會時，當然，我想說，我們總體上對美國感到很樂觀，特別是美國西部，考慮到我剛才提到的一些因素，還有西澳大利亞州。但如果要比較這三個市場，我認為美國會是最受關注的地區。

So it's no surprise to see our M&A team focus on there, and it's no surprise to see the work that we're doing with Nova, for example, that focuses that area. Hopefully, that gives you a bit of a sense.

因此，看到我們的併購團隊專注於此並不奇怪，而且看到我們與 Nova 合作的工作專注於該領域並不奇怪。希望這能給你一些啟發。

Yes, that's great. And just maybe one last one, just on the hedging side. I think your hedging levels for -- on the Power side for 2026 are up fairly substantially, I think about 36%, unsurprisingly bringing down the average price level. Your gas levels didn't change as much.

是的，太棒了。也許還有最後一個，只是關於對沖方面。我認為 2026 年電力方面的對沖水準將大幅上升，約為 36%，這無疑會拉低平均價格水準。您的氣體水平沒有發生太大變化。

I'm just wondering if you can provide a little more color on how you're thinking about hedging next year and the gas cost side of things with (inaudible) Canada coming on and all the dynamics that work there?

我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多關於您如何考慮明年的對沖以及天然氣成本方面的情況，以及（聽不清楚）加拿大即將推出的所有動態？

Yes. So look, I would say that we look at -- so we model out what our expectations would be for pricing and how we think the merchant component of our fleet would be able to run over the course of the year. So for example, if I were to compare 2026 to going into 2021, in 2021, we thought the forward curve was light, and we were open and we benefited from being more open.

是的。所以，我想說，我們看一下——所以我們模擬了我們對定價的預期，以及我們認為我們的船隊中的商船部分在一年內將如何運作。舉例來說，如果我將 2026 年與 2021 年進行比較，那麼在 2021 年，我們認為遠期曲線很輕鬆，我們是開放的，並且我們從更加開放中受益。

As we go into 2026, just like you've seen in 2025, when we look at the forward curve we think that we can do better than that by hedging up, and that's what we're doing. You're right, we have increased the number of hedges for full year 2026. I'd say Blain, we're still pretty comfortable with that high $60 price, $68 price, given a forward curve signaling pricing that would be $20, $22, $23 below that going forward.

當我們進入 2026 年時，就像您在 2025 年看到的那樣，當我們查看遠期曲線時，我們認為透過對沖我們能做得更好，而這正是我們正在做的。你說得對，我們增加了 2026 年全年的對沖數量。我想說，布萊恩，考慮到未來價格曲線訊號價格將比現在低 20 美元、22 美元、23 美元，我們對 60 美元、68 美元的高價仍然相當滿意。

So I don't think the team has done doing their work, frankly, on setting up the portfolio for 2026 Blain, you can speak to that. But I think we're comfortable. And again, you'll see us be relatively long, I would say, hedging in 2026 going forward. On the gas side, I don't know, Blain, I'm not sure what the forward curve for gas is showing.

所以坦白說，我認為團隊還沒有完成為 2026 年布萊恩設立投資組合的工作，你可以談談這一點。但我認為我們很舒服。再說一次，我想說，你會看到我們相對較長的時間，在 2026 年進行對沖。在天然氣方面，布萊恩，我不知道，我不確定天然氣的遠期曲線顯示什麼。

I mean, right now, we're date, it's pretty low when you're looking at 2026, it's three-ish, I think, and so we do have hedges in place just like we do this year. I think our weighted average price for our hedge position for gas has actually been higher than the spot price in the year for gas more in that 360 range as opposed to the (inaudible) that we're seeing today.

我的意思是，現在，當你展望 2026 年時，這個日期相當低，我認為是三年左右，所以我們確實像今年一樣採取了對沖措施。我認為，我們對天然氣對沖頭寸的加權平均價格實際上比今年的天然氣現貨價格高出 360 多個範圍，而不是我們今天看到的（聽不清楚）。

But I think we're -- when we look at -- and when the guys do their hedging, they do assess the, what I would say, the variable costs associated with the production and assessing the positions as they go forward. So clearly, the price of fuel and carbon is a key component going forward. So not surprised at where we are, and we'll continue to do it. Blain, I don't know if you want any color to that?

但我認為，當我們看到——當人們進行對沖時，他們確實會評估與生產相關的變動成本，並評估未來的狀況。顯然，燃料和碳的價格是未來發展的關鍵因素。因此，我們對目前的狀況並不感到驚訝，我們將繼續這樣做。布萊恩，我不知道你是否想要一些顏色？

Yes. It's active, I would say we track it every month just so that you know, John, and it's probably the first when we do our Alberta business review it's topic number one, topic number two, topic number three as we go forward.

是的。它很活躍，我想說我們每個月都會跟踪它，這樣你就知道了，約翰，它可能是我們進行阿爾伯塔省業務審查時的第一次，它是我們前進時的主題一、主題二、主題三。

Mark Jarvi, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行的馬克‧賈維 (Mark Jarvi)。

(inaudible) guys could fill in a little bit more detail around the Nova structure just in terms of what would you need to see happen for you to convert your equity? And then I guess on a late-stage projects, how soon could that come? And from my understanding area that would require incremental capital beyond the capital that you've already committed so far. Is that correct?

（聽不清楚）大家能否更詳細地介紹 Nova 結構，例如您需要看到什麼才能轉換您的股權？然後我猜想在後期專案中，這需要多久才能實現？據我了解，這需要在您迄今為止已承諾的資本之外增加增量資本。對嗎？

It is, Mark. So on Nova, the -- so what basically happened there is the team there was looking at developing a partnership that would fund the next generation of growth that they're developing. And through a bunch of circumstances, we have the good fortune of connecting with them and getting to a place where their view of markets aligned with ours, and there was just a lot of comfort in working with each other going forward.

是的，馬克。因此，對於 Nova 來說，基本上發生的事情是，那裡的團隊正在尋求建立合作夥伴關係，為他們正在開發的下一代成長提供資金。透過一系列的情況，我們有幸與他們建立了聯繫，並達成了他們對市場的看法與我們一致的觀點，這讓我們在未來的合作中感到非常舒適。

So rather than them going ly to see capital, we came up with a structure where we would lend them the capital that we did, the both the term facility and the revolving credit facility for a limited period of time, we fully expect those funds that we're providing to them would be repaid to the company if we don't end up converting.

因此，我們不想讓他們直接看到資本，而是想出了一個結構，我們將把我們所做的資本借給他們，包括定期貸款和有限時間內的循環信貸額度，我們完全希望，如果我們最終不轉換，我們提供給他們的這些資金將償還給公司。

If we see that they're creating value because they're developing assets we may not buy all of the assets that they're developing and selling them or they're looking at maybe exiting their platform. We do have the ability to convert that loan amount into an equity component, and there's a formula that contemplates what the value of that would be.

如果我們發現他們因為開發資產而創造價值，我們可能不會購買他們開發並出售的所有資產，或者他們可能正在考慮退出他們的平台。我們確實有能力將貸款金額轉換為股權部分，並且有一個公式可以計算出其價值。

Approaching a quarter of the equity value so that if they were looking to exit at some point in time in the future, our company could participate in that and actually benefit from that as opposed to just getting the loan at 7%. I mean we didn't make the investment to make 7%. We made the investment to do better than that.

接近股權價值的四分之一，這樣如果他們希望在未來某個時間點退出，我們公司就可以參與其中並從中受益，而不是僅僅以 7% 的利率獲得貸款。我的意思是，我們投資並不是為了賺取 7% 的利潤。我們進行投資是為了做得更好。

On the actual assets themselves, I think realistically, we're looking at projects that would be reaching FID, certainly not in '25, certainly not in 2026. We think it's more '27, '28 in terms of where things are going forward as they work through their pipeline of assets and candidly recalibrated a bit to the west.

就實際資產本身而言，我認為，從現實角度來看，我們正在考慮那些能夠實現 FID 的項目，肯定不是在 2025 年，肯定不是在 2026 年。我們認為，隨著他們利用資產管道並坦率地向西方進行調整，事情的進展將更像 27、28 年的情況。

We have a very detailed structure of how all of the criteria that they have to meet before the project becomes appropriately eligible for TransAlta to consider actually acquiring it and ultimately developing it from Nova. So it's very detailed. We're embedding an employee in their office in Chicago.

我們有一個非常詳細的結構，說明在專案具備適當的資格之前，TransAlta 必須滿足哪些標準才能考慮實際收購並最終從 Nova 進行開發。所以它非常詳細。我們正在芝加哥的辦公室裡安插一名員工。

So we're having oversight and frankly, we'll be rotating people through there as well as we go forward. We have observers on the board, we have the ability to influence geographies and the types of counterparts they're pursuing and even technology types and OEM suppliers as we go forward.

因此，我們正在進行監督，坦白說，隨著我們前進，我們也將在那裡輪換人員。我們在董事會中有觀察員，我們有能力影響他們所追求的地理位置和對應類型，甚至是技術類型和 OEM 供應商。

And so there's a very, how do I put it? Detailed scripted approach on how our project goes from a twinkle in the eye to a place where it makes sense for TransAlta to consider, pulling the trigger and acquiring the project in the latter part of the decade to see it through. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of a sense of what it's like.

所以這是一個非常，我該怎麼說呢？詳細的腳本方法說明了我們的項目如何從最初的設想發展成為 TransAlta 值得考慮的項目，並在 2030 年後期啟動並收購該項目以完成它。希望這能讓你稍微了解一下它是什麼樣的。

And then how much of an equity stake would you have? Would you be partnering on some of those advanced stage projects? Or do you take them off of them and develop them yourself, maybe the sole sponsor of those projects once you get to FID?

那你擁有多少股權？您會參與一些高階階段的專案嗎？或者你從他們那裡拿走這些項目並自己開發，也許一旦你獲得 FID 就會成為這些項目的唯一贊助商？

Yes. The current vision would be the latter, Mark. We would end up acquiring the projects from them for a a predetermined call it, a development fee for them that still provides us with the return thresholds that we prescribed that makes sense for our company given our cost of capital. So that's exactly what it's like. And if we don't proceed to acquire the asset for whatever reason, they're then free to monetize the asset to a third party.

是的。目前的願景是後者，馬克。我們最終會以預先確定的開發費用從他們那裡收購項目，但這筆費用仍然為我們提供我們規定的回報門檻，考慮到我們的資本成本，這對我們公司來說是合理的。事實確實如此。如果我們出於某種原因不繼續收購該資產，他們就可以自由地將該資產貨幣化給第三方。

Can you give a sense just based on what could come in that year time frame, number of megawatts potential investment opportunity? Can you frame that at all in terms of financial numbers?

您能否根據該年時間範圍內可能發生的情況，給出一個潛在的投資機會兆瓦數？您能用財務數字來表達這一點嗎？

Yes, I think it's early days, but I would say that we wouldn't have done it if we didn't think that the opportunity set that we would be getting would be well in excess of a gigawatt over that time period.

是的，我認為現在還為時過早，但我想說，如果我們不認為在這段時間內我們獲得的機會會遠遠超過一千兆瓦，我們就不會這麼做。

Got it. And then Joel, just for you now with that there, you obviously sold the buyback dividend increase. You've got some money allocated I'm sure for Centralia and key pills upgrades. What else do you guys have in terms of funding capacity to do more M&A or greenfield in the short term? Or what else would you have to do then to the funding needs if you do see something you like on the M&A side of things?

知道了。然後喬爾，現在就為你來說，你顯然賣出了回購股息增加。我確信您已經分配了一些資金用於 Centralia 和關鍵藥丸的升級。就融資能力而言，你們還有什麼其他能力在短期內進行更多的併購或綠地投資？或者，如果您在併購方面確實看到了您喜歡的東西，那麼您還需要對融資需求做些什麼呢？

Yes, Mark, really good question. The first thing we would look to is rotating capital, we've highlighted before. We have 88 assets in the portfolio today. A lot of these assets could be actionable in the marketplace. And so one of the things we would look to is, if there is an opportunity out there that's going to really add long-term value to the shareholder, where we can acquire a multiple below where we can actually invest the assets at, we would look to do that first.

是的，馬克，這個問題問得真好。我們首先要考慮的是資本週轉，我們之前已經強調過。我們目前的投資組合中有 88 項資產。許多此類資產可以在市場上採取行動。因此，我們要考慮的事情之一是，如果存在一個能夠真正為股東增加長期價值的機會，我們可以以低於實際投資資產的倍數收購，我們會先考慮這樣做。

We always retain the option with common equity for the right offering. It has to be something that is transformational for us. and be highly accretive, both on an earnings per share basis and a cash flow per share basis. But then the first source of capital, if you will, Mark, would be looking to rotate capital in the event that we have a shortfall and we're looking at opportunities outside of our current base plan.

我們始終保留正確發行普通股的選擇權。它必須對我們來說是具有變革意義的東西，並且無論在每股收益還是每股現金流上都具有高度的增值性。但是，馬克，如果你願意的話，第一個資金來源就是在出現資金短缺的情況下尋求資本輪換，我們正在尋找當前基本計劃之外的機會。

And then that obviously. Go ahead.

這顯然是的。前進。

I was just want curious if you guys have been testing the water in terms of asset sales? If you are seeing potential to opportunities to deploy, have you been seeing what's out there in terms of assets that would be for the best value realization monetization opportunities?

我只是好奇你們是否在資產出售上試水溫過？如果您看到了潛在的部署機會，那麼您是否已經了解了哪些資產可以實現最佳的價值實現貨幣化機會？

I would say. Mark, the answer to that question is, although it's early stages, we have been selectively testing in relation to a couple of the facilities that we have in the portfolio and exploring the possibility of divesting them as we go forward, given the disconnect between what we think they're (inaudible) versus what they might be worth in the market if you see what I'm saying.

我想說。馬克，這個問題的答案是，儘管現在還處於早期階段，但我們已經選擇性地測試了我們投資組合中的幾個設施，並探索在未來剝離它們的可能性，因為我們認為它們的價值（聽不清楚）與它們在市場上的價值之間存在差距，如果你明白我的意思的話。

But with the view that any transaction ral on contracting this?

但有觀點認為，任何交易都與簽訂此合約有關嗎？

I think broadly speaking, directionally, we would be -- at least what we're looking at might actually enhance our contracts (inaudible).

我認為從廣義上講，從方向上看，至少我們正在考慮的東西可能會真正增強我們的合約（聽不清楚）。

And this concludes our Q&A session for today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Stephanie Paris for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想請 Stephanie Paris 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, everyone. That concludes our call for today. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the TransAlta Investor Relations team.

謝謝大家。今天的通話到此結束。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯絡 TransAlta 投資者關係團隊。

And thank you. This concludes our conference call. You may now disconnect. Good day, everyone.

謝謝你。我們的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。大家好。