TransAlta Corp (TAC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Towanda, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to TransAlta Corporation fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there would be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

早安.我叫托萬達 (Towanda)，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 TransAlta Corporation 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。發言人發言後，將有問答環節。（操作員指示）謝謝。

Ms. Paris, you may begin your conference.

帕麗斯女士，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Towanda. Good morning, everyone. My name is Stephanie Paris, and I am the Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy of TransAlta. Welcome to TransAlta's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 conference call.

謝謝你，托旺達。大家早安。我叫 Stephanie Paris，是 TransAlta 投資者關係和企業策略副總裁。歡迎參加 TransAlta 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。

With me today are John Kousinioris, President and Chief Executive Officer; Joel Hunter, EVP-Finance and Chief Financial Officer; and Blain Van Melle, EVP-Commercial and Customer Relations.

今天與我一起的還有總裁兼執行長 John Kousinioris； Joel Hunter，財務執行副總裁兼財務長；以及商業和客戶關係執行副總裁 Blain Van Melle。

Today's call is being webcast, and I invite those listening on the phone lines to view the supporting slides that are posted on our website. A replay of the call will be available later today, and the script will be posted to our website shortly thereafter.

今天的電話會議正在進行網路直播，我邀請電話聽眾觀看我們網站上發布的支援幻燈片。今天稍晚我們將提供此通話的重播，隨後不久我們將把通話腳本發佈到我們的網站上。

All the information provided during this conference call is subject to the forward-looking statement qualifications set out here on slide 2, detailed further in our MD&A, and incorporated for the purposes of today's call. All amounts referenced are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted. The non-IFRS terminology used, including adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, are reconciled in the MD&A for your reference.

本次電話會議中提供的所有資訊均受投影片 2 中列出的前瞻性聲明資格的約束，這些資格在我們的 MD&A 中有進一步詳細說明，並已納入今天的電話會議中。除非另有說明，否則所有引用的金額均為加幣。所使用的非國際財務報告準則術語（包括調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流量）已在 MD&A 中進行了協調，以供您參考。

On today's call, John and Joel will provide an overview of TransAlta's quarterly and annual results. After these remarks, we will open the call for questions.

在今天的電話會議上，約翰和喬爾將概述 TransAlta 的季度和年度業績。在這些發言之後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn the call over to John.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Stephanie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth-quarter and full-year conference call for 2024. As part of our commitment towards reconciliation, I want to begin by acknowledging that our company operates on the traditional territories of indigenous peoples across Canada, Australia, and the United States. We recognize the rich and diverse histories, cultures, and contributions of the First Nations, Inuit, Metis, Aboriginal, and Native American communities. It is with gratitude and respect that we thank the peoples who have lived on these lands for generations for reminding us of the ongoing histories that precede us.

謝謝你，斯蒂芬妮。大家早安，感謝大家參加我們 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。作為我們對和解的承諾的一部分，我首先要承認，我們的公司在加拿大、澳洲和美國原住民的傳統領土上開展業務。我們認識到第一民族、因紐特人、梅蒂斯人、原住民和美洲原住民社區豐富多樣的歷史、文化和貢獻。我們懷著感激和敬意感謝世世代代生活在這片土地上的人民，他們提醒我們前世的歷史。

TransAlta delivered strong financial and operational performance in 2024 at the upper range of our guidance, reflecting the value of our diversified portfolio and proactive hedging strategy and the exceptional performance of our fleet and energy marketing segment.

TransAlta 在 2024 年實現了強勁的財務和營運業績，達到了我們預期的上限，反映了我們多元化投資組合和主動對沖策略的價值以及我們車隊和能源行銷部門的卓越表現。

During the year, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion, free cash flow of $569 million or $1.88 per share, and average fleet availability of 91.2%. We also delivered on a number of key priorities and strategic initiatives. First, we closed the Heartland acquisition late last year and are now in the process of fully integrating Heartland's 1.75 gigawatts of complementary assets into our Alberta portfolio. The transaction enhances our competitive position in Alberta by ensuring we maintain a robust and diversified portfolio in the province.

本財年，我們的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 12.5 億美元，自由現金流為 5.69 億美元或每股 1.88 美元，平均機隊可用性為 91.2%。我們也實現了一些關鍵優先事項和策略性舉措。首先，我們在去年年底完成了 Heartland 的收購，目前正在將 Heartland 的 1.75 千兆瓦互補資產完全整合到我們的阿爾伯塔投資組合中。此次交易確保我們在省內保持強勁且多樣化的投資組合，從而增強了我們在阿爾伯塔省的競爭地位。

Second, our growth team had a strong year, completing the 200-megawatt Horizon Hill wind facility, the 300-megawatt White Rock wind facilities, and the Mount Keith transmission expansion. We also fully completed the Kent Hills rehabilitation project. These assets will collectively contribute over $175 million in adjusted EBITDA to our company annually.

其次，我們的成長團隊今年表現強勁，完成了 200 兆瓦的 Horizo​​​​n Hill 風力發電廠、300 兆瓦的 White Rock 風力發電廠以及 Mount Keith 輸電擴建。我們也全面完成了肯特山修復計畫。這些資產每年將為我們公司貢獻超過 1.75 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Third, we returned $214 million or $0.71 per share to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with our share repurchases executed at an average price of $10.59 per share. Returning capital to our shareholders is a key part of our capital allocation strategy which we adapt to market conditions and the timing and progress of our growth opportunities. Our practice is to always have a normal course issuer bid in place, and we expect to continue to make a creative share buybacks in 2025 of up to $100 million.

第三，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 2.14 億美元，即每股 0.71 美元，我們的股票回購平均價格為每股 10.59 美元。向股東返還資本是我們資本配置策略的關鍵部分，我們會根據市場狀況以及成長機會的時機和進展進行調整。我們的做法是始終保持正常的發行人出價，並且我們預計在 2025 年將繼續進行高達 1 億美元的創意股票回購。

Fourth, we continue to advance the significant contracting and development opportunities that we see at our legacy thermal sites in both Washington State and Alberta.

第四，我們繼續推進我們在華盛頓州和阿爾伯塔省的傳統熱電站看到的重大承包和開發機會。

Fifth, we continue to reduce our CO2 emissions. Since 2015, we have reduced Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 22.7 megatons or 70%, a remarkable achievement considering the size and diversity of our fleet. And we will cease coal-fired generation from our single remaining coal unit by the end of 2025 which will further reduce our emissions.

第五，我們繼續減少二氧化碳排放。自 2015 年以來，我們已將範圍 1 和範圍 2 的溫室氣體排放量減少了 22.7 兆噸，即 70%，考慮到我們船隊的規模和多樣性，這是一項了不起的成就。到 2025 年底，我們將停止僅存的一座燃煤機組的燃煤發電，這將進一步減少我們的排放。

And finally, based on our strong performance in 2024 and our confidence in the future, we're pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has approved an 8% increase to our common share dividend to $0.26 per share on an annualized basis. This represents our sixth consecutive annual dividend increase affirming the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.

最後，基於我們在 2024 年的強勁表現和對未來的信心，我們很高興地宣布，董事會已批准將普通股股息提高 8%，達到每股 0.26 美元（按年計算）。這是我們連續第六年增加年度股息，反映了公司向股東回報價值的承諾。

Our balance sheet continues to provide us with strength and flexibility. With over $1.6 billion in available liquidity, including approximately $334 million in cash, we're very well-positioned to execute our strategic priorities.

我們的資產負債表繼續為我們提供實力和靈活性。我們擁有超過 16 億美元的可用流動資金，其中包括約 3.34 億美元的現金，因此我們完全有能力執行我們的策略重點。

We successfully closed the acquisition of Heartland on December 4, adding 1.75 gigawatts of complementary flexible capacity to our company, including contracted cogeneration, gas thermal generation, and peaking generation, along with transmission capacity, all of which will be needed to support the energy transition and reliability in the Alberta electricity market.

我們於 12 月 4 日成功完成對 Heartland 的收購，為該公司增加了 1.75 千兆瓦的補充靈活容量，包括合約熱電聯產、燃氣熱電發電和峰值發電以及輸電容量，所有這些都將支持阿爾伯塔省電力市場的能源轉型和可靠性。

60% of the revenues are contracted with leading counterparties with a weighted average remaining life of 15 years, providing added diversification to our cash flows and tempering our merchant exposure. The regulatory review process for the transaction with the federal Competition Bureau was a lengthy one and resulted in our agreeing to divest Heartland's Poplar Hill and Rainbow Lake facilities in order to complete the transaction. This led to a purchase price reduction of $80 million.

60% 的收入是與主要交易對手簽訂的合同，加權平均剩餘期限為 15 年，這為我們的現金流提供了額外的多樣化，並調節了我們的商家風險。與聯邦競爭局的交易監管審查過程非常漫長，最終我們同意剝離 Heartland 的 Poplar Hill 和 Rainbow Lake 設施以完成交易。這導致購買價格降低了 8000 萬美元。

The revised purchase price for the transaction was approximately $542 million consisting of a cash payment of $310 million as well as the assumption of $232 million of low cost debt. An economic benefit adjustment of a further $95 million ultimately resulted in the net cash payment of $215 million which was funded through a combination of cash-on-hand and draws on our credit facilities. The overall net price inclusive of debt works out to approximately $270 per kilowatt and an attractive EBITDA multiple of 5.4 times. And we're in the process of realizing approximately $20 million of corporate synergies on a pretax basis in connection with the transaction. We're pleased to welcome Heartland to TransAlta and are happy with how the integration is progressing.

該交易的修訂後購買價格約為 5.42 億美元，其中包括 3.1 億美元的現金支付以及 2.32 億美元的低成本債務承擔。進一步的 9,500 萬美元的經濟效益調整最終導致淨現金支付 2.15 億美元，資金來自現金和信貸額度的組合。包含債務在內的總淨價約為每千瓦 270 美元，EBITDA 倍數為 5.4 倍，頗具吸引力。我們正在透過此交易實現約 2000 萬美元的稅前企業協同效應。我們很高興歡迎 Heartland 加入 TransAlta，並對整合的進展感到滿意。

At our Centralia site, we're exploring multiple opportunities to meet load growth and enhanced reliability in the region. We're currently advancing discussions with the customer on a redevelopment opportunity to extend the operating life of our legacy Centralia site through a contracted coal-to-gas conversion. We're also considering other opportunities to build out the energy campus on our significant landholdings, including potentially, wind, solar, batteries, pump storage, and next-generation technologies. We expect to be able to share detailed development plans for Centralia during the first half of 2025.

在我們的 Centralia 站點，我們正在探索多種機會來滿足該地區的負載成長和增強可靠性。我們目前正在與客戶就重建機會進行討論，透過簽訂合約的煤炭轉氣來延長我們原有的 Centralia 工廠的使用壽命。我們也正在考慮利用其他機會在我們擁有的大量土地上建造能源園區，包括風能、太陽能、電池、抽水蓄能和下一代技術。我們預計將能夠在 2025 年上半年分享 Centralia 的詳細發展計畫。

We are also advancing opportunities at our legacy thermal sites in Alberta which we believe offer ideal conditions for data center opportunities including speed to power, expansion potential, Tier 4 reliability, competitive power pricing, and supportive renewable product offerings. Our work is progressing through three phases. The first phase, which we completed in the fall, was the socialization phase. In this phase, we engage with potential customers, highlighting our service offerings, engaging interest in our Alberta sites.

我們也在阿爾伯塔省的傳統熱站推進發展機遇，我們相信這些熱力站為資料中心機遇提供了理想條件，包括電力速度、擴展潛力、Tier 4 可靠性、有競爭力的電價以及支援性的可再生產品。我們的工作分為三個階段進行。第一階段是社會化階段，我們在秋天完成了這個階段。在此階段，我們與潛在客戶接觸，重點介紹我們的服務產品，並吸引他們對我們阿爾伯塔省網站的興趣。

The second, technical phase, is ongoing and includes location assessments; geotechnical wor; zoning and interconnection applications, and we recently submitted our Keephils site into the interconnection queue through a two-phase submission over the course of 2027 and 2028; permitting and engineering assessments; supply chain engagement; and the evaluation of existing fiber optic networks, water rights, and cooling pond capabilities. This phase is advancing well towards detailed and de-risked commercial offerings that we can showcase to our potential customers.

第二階段為技術階段，正在進行中，包括位置評估；岩土工程；分區和互連申請，我們最近透過 2027 年和 2028 年的兩階段提交將我們的 Keephils 站點提交到互連隊列中；許可和工程評估；供應鏈參與；以及對現有光纖網路、水權和冷卻池冷卻能力的評估。這一階段進展順利，我們可以向潛在客戶展示詳細且無風險的商業產品。

The next and final phase is commercialization, which includes contracting with high-quality counterparties in the beginning of construction at our sites. We aim to secure exclusivity with key partners by mid-2025 with detailed design and definitive agreements expected later in the year. We anticipate operational data centers 18 to 24 months after signing definitive agreements.

下一個也是最後一個階段是商業化，包括在我們工地建設開始時與高品質的交易對手簽訂合約。我們的目標是到 2025 年中期與主要合作夥伴達成獨家合作協議，並預計在今年稍後公佈詳細設計和最終協議。我們預計資料中心將在簽署最終協議後的 18 至 24 個月內投入營運。

I'll now pass it over to Joel.

我現在將其交給喬爾。

Thanks, John. And good morning, everyone. We are extremely pleased with our fourth-quarter and full-year operational and financial performance across all of our business segments. The Alberta merchant portfolio notably outperformed the spot market, thanks to our hedging and optimization strategies, despite the ongoing challenging pricing environment.

謝謝，約翰。大家早安。我們對第四季度和全年所有業務部門的營運和財務表現感到非常滿意。儘管定價環境持續充滿挑戰，但由於我們的對沖和優化策略，阿爾伯塔商人投資組合的表現明顯優於現貨市場。

Starting with our full-year results. The hydro segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $316 million in line with our expectations given lower realized and ancillary spot prices. The decline year-over-year was partially mitigated due to realized premiums above spot prices and positive contributions from hedging as well as a greater volume of ancillary services due to increased demand by the ISO. We are also able to sell additional environmental attributes to partially offset the power price declines at the merchant of hydro fleet.

從我們的全年業績開始。由於實際和輔助現貨價格較低，水力發電部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.16 億美元，符合我們的預期。由於實際溢價高於現貨價格、對沖的積極貢獻以及由於 ISO 需求增加而導致的輔助服務量增加，同比下降有所緩解。我們還可以出售額外的環境屬性來部分抵消水力發電商的電價下跌。

The wind and solar segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $316 million, a 23% increase compared to 2023, primarily due to the addition of the Oklahoma wind assets and the return to service of Kent Hills.

風能和太陽能部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 3.16 億美元，比 2023 年增長 23%，這主要歸功於俄克拉荷馬州風能資產的增加以及 Kent Hills 的恢復服務。

The gas segment achieved 92.2% availability and delivered adjusted EBITDA of $535 million. The year-over-year decline was due to lower power prices in Alberta and increased dispatch optimization from our Alberta gas fleet. However, the impact of lower realized prices was offset by our favorable hedge position.

天然氣部門的可用性達到了 92.2%，調整後的 EBITDA 達到 5.35 億美元。年比下降的原因是阿爾伯塔省電價下降以及我們阿爾伯塔省天然氣車隊調度優化的加強。然而，較低的實際價格的影響被我們有利的對沖頭寸所抵消。

The energy transition segment delivered $91 million of adjusted EBITDA, which decreased year-over-year due to increased economic dispatch driven by lower market prices which negatively impacted merchant production.

能源轉型部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 9,100 萬美元，年減是由於市場價格下跌導致經濟調度增加，對商業生產產生了負面影響。

Our energy marketing segment delivered exceptional performance with adjusted EBITDA of $131 million, an increase of $22 million or 20% year-over-year. This was due to favorable market volatility across North American power and natural gas markets.

我們的能源行銷部門表現優異，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.31 億美元，年增 2,200 萬美元，增幅為 20%。這是由於北美電力和天然氣市場有利的市場波動。

And finally, corporate costs increased year-over-year primarily due to increased spending to support our strategic and growth initiatives. Our adjusted EBITDA excludes the impact of Brazeau penalties assessed, ERP integration costs, and Heartland acquisition-related costs as these items are not reflective of ongoing operations or performance of our operating assets.

最後，企業成本年增，主要是由於支持我們的策略和成長計劃的支出增加。我們的調整後 EBITDA 不包括評估的 Brazeau 罰款、ERP 整合成本以及 Heartland 收購相關成本的影響，因為這些項目無法反映我們持續的營運或經營資產的表現。

As John mentioned, overall, we delivered another strong year with $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA, reaching the upper range of our 2024 guidance. Our free cash flow is also strong, delivering $569 million or $1.88 per share, also in the upper range of guidance.

正如約翰所提到的，總體而言，我們又度過了強勁的一年，調整後的 EBITDA 達到 12.5 億美元，達到了我們 2024 年預期的上限。我們的自由現金流也很強勁，達到 5.69 億美元或每股 1.88 美元，也處於指導價值的上限。

Shifting now to our fourth quarter results. The hydro segment produced an adjusted EBITDA of $57 million in line with last year. Higher merchant revenues were driven by higher volumes which were partially offset by lower spot power prices and lower environmental and tax attributes. The wind and solar segment produced adjusted ebtida of $95 million, an increase of 16%, primarily due to the addition of our Oklahoma wind facilities and the return to service of Kent Hills. The gas segment saw adjusted EBITDA decrease by 18% to $116 million, mostly due to lower realized power prices in Alberta and higher carbon pricing. The energy transition segment delivered $28 million of adjusted EBITDA inline quarter over quarter. Energy marketing adjusted EBITDA increased by $13 million to $27 million versus the same period last year due to favorable market volatility and timing of realized settled trades. Corporate costs increased quarter over quarter, largely due to higher spend to support strategic and growth initiatives noted previously.

現在轉向我們的第四季業績。水電部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,700 萬美元，與去年持平。商家收入的增加是由交易量的增加所推動的，但現貨電價的下降以及環境和稅收因素的降低部分抵消了這一增長。風能和太陽能部門的調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤為 9,500 萬美元，成長 16%，這主要歸功於我們增加了俄克拉荷馬州的風力發電設施以及肯特山的復原服務。天然氣部門調整後的 EBITDA 下降 18% 至 1.16 億美元，主要原因是阿爾伯塔省實際電價較低且碳價較高。能源轉型部門的調整後 EBITDA 與上一季持平，為 2800 萬美元。由於市場波動性有利以及已實現結算交易的時機，能源行銷調整後的 EBITDA 與去年同期相比增加了 1,300 萬美元，達到 2,700 萬美元。企業成本環比增加，主要是由於支持先前提到的策略和成長計劃的支出增加。

Overall, we generated $285 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, in line with 2023, despite milder weather conditions that contributed to lower merchant power prices in Alberta.

總體而言，儘管天氣條件溫和導致阿爾伯塔省商業電價下降，但我們在第四季度的調整後 EBITDA 仍為 2.85 億美元，與 2023 年持平。

Lower free cash flow of $48 million in the fourth quarter was primarily due to higher sustaining capital expenditures, which is typical for the fourth quarter, along with higher realized foreign exchange losses, higher current income tax expense, increased spending on growth opportunities, and higher net interest expense due to our lower capitalized interest and interest income.

第四季度自由現金流減少 4,800 萬美元，主要是由於持續性資本支出增加（這在第四季度很常見），此外還由於已實現外匯損失增加、當期所得稅費用增加、增長機會支出增加，以及由於資本化利息和利息收入減少導致的淨利息支出增加。

Turning to the Alberta portfolio, the 2024 spot price averaged $63 per megawatt hour, which was notably lower than the average price of $134 per megawatt hour in 2023. The decline year-over-year was primarily due to incremental generation from the addition of new gas, wind and solar supply, as well as lower natural gas prices.

談到阿爾伯塔省的投資組合，2024 年的現貨價格平均為每兆瓦時 63 美元，明顯低於 2023 年每兆瓦時 134 美元的平均價格。年比下降主要是由於新增天然氣、風能和太陽能供應導致發電量增加，以及天然氣價格下降。

Our hydro fleet delivered an average realized price of $91 per megawatt hour, 144% premium to the average spot price. The gas fleet also exceeded our expectations. We deployed hedging strategies to enhance our portfolio margins and mitigate the impact of lower merchant power prices throughout 2024. We hedged 9,100 gigawatt hours at an average price of $86 per megawatt hour, 137% premium to the average spot price. Our merchant wind fleet realized an average price of $35 per megawatt hour in line with our expectations given the evolving merchant power market.

我們的水力發電專案平均實現電價為每兆瓦時 91 美元，比平均現貨價格高出 144%。天然氣車隊也超出了我們的預期。我們部署了對沖策略來提高我們的投資組合利潤率，並減輕 2024 年商業電價下跌的影響。我們以每兆瓦時 86 美元的平均價格對沖了 9,100 千兆瓦時，比平均現貨價格高出 137%。我們的商用風電場實現了每兆瓦時 35 美元的平均價格，符合我們對不斷發展的商用電力市場的預期。

Despite relatively benign weather last year, which resulted in lower power prices on average, we captured additional margins by fulfilling a portion of our higher price hedges with purchase power when prices were below our variable costs of production. By optimizing our fleet throughout the year and fulfilling hedges with purchase power, we were able to respond to higher demand from the ISO and deliver additional ancillary service volumes across the Alberta fleet. In 2024, our average realized price for ancillary services sets at $46 per megawatt hour, approximately 75% of the average spot price.

儘管去年天氣相對溫和，導致平均電價較低，但當電價低於我們的變動生產成本時，我們透過購買電力來滿足部分高價對沖，從而獲得了額外的利潤。透過全年優化我們的船隊並透過購買力進行對沖，我們能夠響應 ISO 的更高需求並為整個阿爾伯塔船隊提供額外的輔助服務量。2024年，我們的輔助服務平均實現價格定為每兆瓦時46美元，約為平均現貨價格的75%。

Turning to the fourth quarter, spot prices averaged $52 per megawatt hour, significantly lower than the $82 per megawatt hour in 2023. However, our Alberta hydro and gas fleets continue to outperform with average realized prices of $78 and $75 per megawatt hour, respectively, a significant premium to the average spot price of $52 per megawatt hour.

展望第四季度，現貨價格平均為每兆瓦時 52 美元，遠低於 2023 年的每兆瓦時 82 美元。然而，我們的阿爾伯塔省水力發電和天然氣發電廠繼續表現出色，平均實現價格分別為每兆瓦時 78 美元和 75 美元，遠高於每兆瓦時 52 美元的平均現貨價格。

Turning to our 2025 outlook. We expect that our results will be broadly in line with 2024. For 2025, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion and free cash flow to be in the range of $450 million to $550 million or $1.51 to $1.85 per share.

展望 2025 年。我們預計我們的業績將與 2024 年大致一致。到 2025 年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 11.5 億美元至 12.5 億美元之間，自由現金流將在 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元之間，或每股 1.51 美元至 1.85 美元。

Now there are a number of factors influencing our 2025 outlook. First, we expect the Alberta and mid-C spot power prices to decline to a range of $40 to $60 and USD50 to USD70 per megawatt hour. Second, we are well hedged both financially and through our commercial and industrial business, which I'll speak to you momentarily. Third, our outlook includes the full-year impact from Heartland and our Oklahoma wind assets. Fourth, we expect our OM&A this year to be higher year-over-year due to the full year impact from the addition of Heartland as well as the advancement of our growth initiatives. And finally, we expect continued solid performance from the energy marketing segment with a midpoint gross margin of $120 million.

現在有許多因素影響著我們對 2025 年的展望。首先，我們預計阿爾伯塔省和中部地區的現貨電價將降至每兆瓦時 40 至 60 美元和 50 至 70 美元的區間。其次，我們在財務上以及透過商業和工業業務都做好了對沖，我稍後會和大家談這一點。第三，我們的展望包括 Heartland 和俄克拉荷馬州風電資產的全年影響。第四，由於 Heartland 的加入以及我們成長計畫的進展對全年產生了影響，我們預計今年的 OM&A 將年成長。最後，我們預期能源行銷部門將持續表現穩健，平均毛利率為 1.2 億美元。

The confidence in our EBITDA and free cash flow guidance is supported by the performance of the contracted fleet as well as our hedging and optimization strategies. 75% of our generation revenue is from our contracted assets and hedging position which, along with our stable energy marketing earnings, gives us confidence in our 2025 outlook. It is our expectation that our company will become increasingly contracted over time.

我們對 EBITDA 和自由現金流指引的信心源自於合約船隊的表現以及我們的對沖和優化策略。我們 75% 的發電收入來自合約資產和對沖頭寸，再加上我們穩定的能源行銷收益，讓我們對 2025 年的前景充滿信心。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，我們公司的合約將會越來越多。

Looking at this year, we have approximately 7,700 gigawatt hours of our Alberta generation hedged and an average price of $70 per megawatt hour. This is well above the current forward curve. We will continue to optimize our fleet and reduce production in low priced, high supply hours by fulfilling our financial hedges and customer requirements with open market purchases. Looking to 2026, our team has hedge production at an average price of approximately $75 per megawatt-hour, also well above current forward pricing levels.

縱觀今年，我們對阿爾伯塔省發電量進行了約 7,700 吉瓦時的對沖，平均價格為每兆瓦時 70 美元。這遠高於目前的遠期曲線。我們將繼續優化我們的車隊，並透過公開市場採購來滿足我們的財務對沖和客戶要求，從而減少低價、高供應時段的生產。展望 2026 年，我們的團隊對沖產量的平均價格約為每兆瓦時 75 美元，也遠高於目前的遠期定價水準。

Turning to capital allocation, we continue to maintain a balanced, prudent, and disciplined approach. First, we are focused on keeping adjusted debt-to-ebitda in the range of 3 to 4 times. Second, we will return capital to shareholders through dividends while maintaining a payout ratio of approximately 15% of free cash flow in 2025.

談到資本配置，我們繼續保持平衡、審慎和嚴謹的態度。首先，我們致力於將調整後的債務與息稅折舊攤提前利潤之比保持在 3 至 4 倍的範圍內。第二，我們將透過股利向股東返還資本，同時在2025年維持約15%的自由現金流派息率。

Growth and share repurchases will continue to compete for capital. Our goal is to maximize shareholder value, and we will assess each growth opportunity against returning capital directly to shareholders. Our capital allocation strategy adapts to market conditions. And this year, we expect to deploy our free cash flow towards our legacy thermal sites, potential M&A, as well as our long-term growth plan. We believe that investing in our legacy thermal energy campuses will provide the greatest long term value for our shareholders. We also expect to continue to make accretive share repurchases this with capital that we do not deploy to growth.

成長和股票回購將繼續爭奪資本。我們的目標是最大化股東價值，我們將評估每個成長機會並直接向股東返還資本。我們的資本配置策略可適應市場狀況。今年，我們預計將自由現金流投入到我們現有的熱電站、潛在的併購以及我們的長期成長計畫中。我們相信，投資我們傳統的熱能園區將為我們的股東帶來最大的長期價值。我們也希望利用未用於成長的資本繼續進行增值性股票回購。

At the midpoint of our guidance for 2025, we expect to generate $500 million of free cash flow, which provides continued flexibility with funds to deploy in a balanced approach to capital allocation.

在我們對 2025 年的預期中期，我們預計將產生 5 億美元的自由現金流，這將為資金的部署提供持續的靈活性，以平衡的方式進行資本配置。

We are well-positioned to return capital to our shareholders while prudently pursuing growth opportunities and maintaining our balance sheet strength. With that, I will turn the call over to John.

我們有能力向股東返還資本，同時審慎尋求成長機會並維持資產負債表實力。說完這些，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Joel. As I look at our strategic priorities for 2025, we're focused on the following key goals. First, Improving our leading and lagging safety performance indicators while achieving strong fleet availability. Second, achieving EBITDA and free cash flow within our 2025 guidance ranges. Third, maintaining our high fleet availability and reputation as a world-class operator. Fourth, maximizing the value of our thermal energy campuses. Fifth, successfully executing M&A that may arise and advancing our growth plan. And finally, successfully implementing an upgrade to our ERP system.

謝謝你，喬爾。當我審視我們 2025 年的策略重點時，我們將重點放在以下關鍵目標。首先，在實現強大的機隊可用性的同時，提高我們的領先和落後安全績效指標。第二，實現 2025 年指引範圍內的 EBITDA 和自由現金流。第三，保持我們高機隊可用性和作為世界一流運營商的聲譽。第四，最大限度地發揮熱能園區的價值。第五，成功執行可能出現的併購並推動我們的成長計畫。最後，成功實施了我們的 ERP 系統升級。

We will remain prudent and disciplined in our approach to growth, focusing on delivering value to our customers and our shareholders. And we look forward to sharing more with you at our 2025 Investor Day that we're planning to host in November.

我們將繼續保持審慎和嚴謹的成長方式，專注於為客戶和股東創造價值。我們期待在計劃於 11 月舉辦的 2025 年投資者日上與您分享更多內容。

I believe TransAlta offers a compelling investment opportunity. First, we're a safe, reliable operator with a highly capable workforce. Second, our cash flows are strong and resilient and underpinned by our diversified hydro, wind, solar and gas portfolio complemented by our world-class asset optimization and energy marketing capabilities. Third, we're a clean electricity leader with a focus on tangible greenhouse gas emission reductions as we remain on track to achieve our ambitious 2026 CO2 emissions reduction target.

我相信 TransAlta 提供了一個極具吸引力的投資機會。首先，我們是一家安全、可靠的營運商，擁有一支高素質的員工。其次，我們的現金流強勁而有彈性，並以我們多元化的水力發電、風能、太陽能和天然氣組合為基礎，並輔以我們世界一流的資產優化和能源行銷能力。第三，我們是清潔電力領域的領導者，致力於切實減少溫室氣體排放，我們仍有望實現雄心勃勃的 2026 年二氧化碳減排目標。

Fourth, there is tremendous value in our legacy thermal sites which our team is actively working to repurpose to meet the evolving needs of our customers and markets. Fifth, we're positioned for growth with a diverse set of high value growth opportunities that our talented development team is focused on realizing for our shareholders. And sixth, our company has a sound financial foundation. Our balance sheet is strong, and we have ample liquidity to pursue and deliver multiple growth opportunities with the flexibility to also return capital to our shareholders through dividends and potential share repurchases.

第四，我們原有的熱電站具有巨大的價值，我們的團隊正在積極努力地重新利用這些熱電站，以滿足客戶和市場不斷變化的需求。第五，我們擁有多樣化的高價值成長機會，我們優秀的開發團隊致力於為股東實現這些機會。第六，我們公司的財務基礎良好。我們的資產負債表強勁，我們擁有充足的流動性來追求和實現多種成長機會，同時也能靈活地透過股利和潛在的股票回購向股東返還資本。

Finally, we have our people. Our people are our greatest asset. And I want to thank all our employees and contractors for the outstanding work they have done to deliver our results and strong finish to 2024.

最後，我們有了我們的人民。我們的員工是我們最大的財富。我要感謝我們所有的員工和承包商，感謝他們為實現我們的目標所做的出色工作，並在 2024 年取得了圓滿的成果。

Thank you. I'll turn the call back over to Stephanie.

謝謝。我會把電話轉回給史蒂芬妮。

Thank you, John. Operator, would you please open the call for questions from the analyst.

謝謝你，約翰。接線員，請您打開電話，讓分析師提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster.

謝謝。（操作員指示）我們正在編製問答名單，請稍候。

Robert Hope, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的羅伯特霍普 (Robert Hope)。

Good morning everyone. Just taking a look at the 2025 priorities, they include strategic M&A, when you think about kind of the geographies or asset types, or modalities that you're looking at, what are most attractive and what are the least attractive?

大家早安。只要看一下 2025 年的優先事項，它們包括策略併購，當您考慮所關注的地理位置、資產類型或模式時，哪些最具吸引力，哪些最不具吸引力？

Good morning, Robert. Why don't I start, responding to the question and maybe I'll turn it over to Joel to add any color that he has. So look, we are seeing a number of opportunities throughout North America, particularly in the United States from an M&A perspective. And broadly speaking, they fall into two categories from our perspective. One is legacy gas assets that we see operating in certain jurisdictions. And interestingly for us, renewables, there's a lot of focus on natural gas-fired generation right now and we're actually seeing potentially at times better value on the renewable side than on the gas side.

早上好，羅伯特。我先來回答這個問題，然後也許我會把它交給喬爾，讓他補充他所知道的任何細節。所以，從併購的角度來看，我們看到整個北美，特別是美國的大量機會。從廣義上講，從我們的角度來看，它們分為兩類。一是我們看到在某些司法管轄區運作的遺留天然氣資產。有趣的是，對我們來說，再生能源目前非常關注天然氣發電，實際上我們發現再生能源的價值有時比天然氣的價值更高。

In terms of the geographies, I would say that we're primarily focused on, I think Joel is fair to say, kind of Western North America. So there is Alberta, but our focus is much more on the western part of the United States with a particular focus on, I would say, the Pacific Northwest and the Desert Southwest right now as being sort of core, just focus areas for our organization. We have a lot of expertise, trading power in the region. We've operated in the Pacific Northwest for a considerable period of time and are extremely comfortable with the region and candidly, like its long term prospects, when we're looking at low growth and all of the opportunities we see there. Joel, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.

就地理區域而言，我想說我們主要關注的是北美西部，喬爾說得對。因此，雖然有阿爾伯塔省，但我們的重點更多地放在美國西部，特別是太平洋西北部和沙漠西南部，因為它們是我們組織的核心重點區域。我們在該地區擁有豐富的專業知識和貿易實力。我們在太平洋西北地區經營了相當長一段時間，對這個地區非常滿意，坦白說，當我們考慮低成長和我們在那裡看到的所有機會時，我們看好它的長期前景。喬爾，我不知道你是否想補充一點。

The only thing I would add to that, John, is we are seeing kind of the multiples converge, as you highlighted both for, contractor renewables versus thermal generation. The kind of size that we look for is probably similar to what we saw with Heartland, kind of in that $500 million to $750 million kind of enterprise, if you will, would be ideal for us. So again, we spent a lot of time on this.

約翰，我唯一想補充的是，我們看到了多種因素的融合，正如你所強調的，承包商再生能源與火力發電。我們所尋求的企業規模可能與 Heartland 類似，如果你願意的話，5 億到 7.5 億美元的企業規模對我們來說是理想的。因此，我們再次花費了大量時間在這上面。

We get to see everything that comes available in the market. There's always hundreds of transactions per year. And so we remain very disciplined and focused, as John highlighted, on kind of more geographical focus in the West with being really technology-agnostic.

我們可以看到市場上出現的所有東西。每年總有數百筆交易。因此，正如約翰所強調的那樣，我們仍然非常自律和專注，並且更加關注西方的地理環境，並且真正不受技術限制。

All right. Really appreciate that color. And then maybe just moving over to the Keephills data center development. You're now in the technical kind of phase. Can you maybe add a little bit more color on what you think a potential outcome could be here? Is this just bringing back some existing or improving the reliability and kind of utilization of existing capacity? Or could there be something more fulsome here including further developments? Can you maybe just put some outcomes of what this could look like?

好的。真的很欣賞那個顏色。然後也許只是轉向 Keephills 數據中心開發。您現在處於技術階段。您能否再詳細解釋一下您認為可能出現的結果？這是否只是恢復一些現有容量或提高現有容量的可靠性和利用率？或者這裡可能存在更充分的內容，包括進一步的發展？您能否簡單描述一下這種現象可能產生的結果？

Yeah. Happy to. I think the way we're thinking of it is actually in, I think it's fair to say, a three-phased approach. So Keephills would be the initial campus that we're focused on as an offering for data centers, followed by Sheerness. So we're quite pleased by what we're seeing at Sheerness from a potential perspective. And then with the focus after that more around Sundance which is probably, Joel, I think it's fair to say, more in the vein of a bit more of a redevelopment piece there for Sundance.

是的。很開心。我認為我們思考這個問題的方式其實是，公平地說，是一個三階段的方法。因此，Keephills 將是我們關注的首個資料中心園區，其次是 Sheerness。因此，從潛在角度來看，我們對 Sheerness 的現狀感到非常滿意。此後，焦點更集中在聖丹斯電影節上，喬爾，我認為可以公平地說，這更像是聖丹斯電影節的再開發作品。

Right now, we would envision -- and the work that we're doing is primarily around Keephills too at the moment as an offering. The idea would be that that unit would provide, notionally, behind-the-fence extension for a data center, but with a connection to the grid. So 90% or so would be powered essentially from our unit there with the remaining 10% of reliability coming off of the grid. The work we've done is pretty extensive.

現在，我們設想——我們目前所做的工作主要也是圍繞著 Keephills 提供的。其想法是，該裝置名義上為資料中心提供圍欄後面的擴展，但與電網相連。因此，大約 90% 的電力基本上由我們在那裡的單位供電，其餘 10% 的電力來自電網。我們所做的工作相當廣泛。

We have a lot of the opportunity mapped out, everything from geotechnical work in terms of where the data center would actually locate, they actually require quite a large footprint in terms of what they would require, right through to looking at how the water would flow to cool the facility, how the electrons would flow either from the grid or from the facility to a substation to be stepped down to actually work for the facility. We've done zoning work there.

我們已經規劃出了很多機會，從資料中心實際位置的岩土工程，到它們實際上需要相當大的佔地面積，再到研究水如何流動以冷卻設施，電子如何從電網或設施流向變電站並降壓以實際為設施工作。我們已經在那裡完成了分區工作。

The county is very supportive, and we have a real good handle on the fiber network and what its capabilities are. So we're optimistic. But our goal is to be in a position where we have really done an extensive set of preliminary work to make kind of the commercial offering and the technical assessment for our customers as easy as possible. So we're front-ending deliberately from our perspective as much as we can in terms of the offer that we'll be providing and our discussions continue.

縣內非常支持，我們對光纖網路及其功能有很好的掌握。所以我們很樂觀。但我們的目標是真正完成一系列廣泛的前期工作，以便盡可能輕鬆地為客戶提供商業產品和技術評估。因此，我們會盡可能從我們的角度出發，特意提前說明我們將提供的服務，並且我們的討論將繼續進行。

That's a great color. Congrats.

顏色真棒。恭喜。

Mark Jarvi, CIBC.

加拿大帝國商業銀行的馬克‧賈維 (Mark Jarvi)。

Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to continue on with the conversation we just had -- you had there, John. In terms of like the counterparties, you said kind of, obviously, you folks in the technical work are the range of counterparties for data centers. Is there a number of them that you're talking to right now? And it sounds like given you said 90% served by Keephills Unit 2, you're kind of in a 400-megawatt-type load. Is that a fair number for the first sort of phase of data center deals?

大家早安。只是想繼續我們剛才的談話——約翰。就交易對手而言，您說的有點明顯，你們從事技術工作的人是資料中心的交易對手範圍。您現在正在和其中幾個人交談嗎？聽起來，鑑於您說的 90% 由 Keephills 2 號機組供電，那麼您的負載相當於 400 兆瓦。對於第一階段的資料中心交易來說，這個數字合理嗎？

Good morning, Mark. I'll answer the second part first. The answer to that is yes, that is what we're looking at. Initially, the initial offering would be 400 megawatts from K2, followed by another 400 megawatts at K3, which is the way we're looking at phasing it.

早上好，馬克。我先回答第二部分。答案是肯定的，這就是我們正在關注的。最初，初始供應量為 K2 的 400 兆瓦，隨後是 K3 的另外 400 兆瓦，這是我們正在考慮的分階段方式。

In terms of the customers, look, we've been having conversations for a period of time. We began with our first phase and it's continued with our second phase. Without getting into specific numbers like our universe of potential customers is in kind of the range of about 20, I would say, they include both hyperscalers and co-locators and we have had discussions with both. And we continue to be as constructive as we can to meeting their particular needs. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of a sense of the way that we're working through it.

就客戶而言，你看，我們已經交談了一段時間了。我們從第一階段開始，並繼續進行第二階段。我們不談具體數字，例如我們的潛在客戶範圍大概在 20 個左右，我想說，他們既包括超大規模企業，也包括主機託管企業，我們已經與這兩家公司進行了討論。我們將繼續盡最大努力滿足他們的特殊需求。所以希望這能讓您稍微了解我們解決這個問題的方式。

And have any of those conversations evolved at all this in in spite of -- or sorry, in light of what's happened in the last couple of months here, whether it's tariffs, economic uncertainty in Canada, a little bit of political tension across the border, is that changing anything pending the conversations though?

儘管如此，或者抱歉，考慮到過去幾個月發生的事情，無論是關稅、加拿大的經濟不確定性，還是邊境的一點政治緊張局勢，這些對話是否有所進展，這些對話是否會改變任何尚未解決的問題？

It's a great question. Not that we have seen -- I'm looking at Blain here too. Blaine, I can't think of it really driving either the work that we're doing or candidly, the discussions that we're having with potential customers. The one thing that we're focused on, though, is just from a supply chain perspective. I mean, if there are tariffs, we're just being mindful about time to actual delivery of some of the key components that we require. And that's mostly around the substation and the transmission. It's less about the actual facility itself and what that might mean from a cost perspective. I don't think it really changes the economics all that much in terms of the aggregate offer that we're providing though.

這是一個很好的問題。我們沒有看到——我也在這裡看著布萊恩。布萊恩，我不認為它真的能推動我們正在做的工作，或者坦白說，推動我們與潛在客戶的討論。然而，我們關注的只是供應鏈的角度。我的意思是，如果有關稅，我們只是要注意實際交付我們所需的一些關鍵部件的時間。這主要涉及變電站和輸電線路。這與實際設施本身以及從成本角度來看其意味著什麼關係不大。但我認為，就我們所提供的整體報價而言，它實際上不會對經濟產生太大的改變。

Okay. And then turning to Centralia, in terms of when you kind of land on an agreement, any sense of the capital required to reposition that asset? It sounds like the coal-to-gas conversions first phase, maybe some larger you said energy campus, in terms of how the asset then ultimately progresses after the end of this year, is it sort of down for 2026 and then back up in 2027? Just sort of the timeline and then maybe the capital required for that turnaround.

好的。然後轉向 Centralia，就你們達成協議而言，是否了解重新定位該資產所需的資本？這聽起來像是煤炭轉氣的第一階段，也許是您所說的一些更大的能源園區，就今年年底之後資產的最終進展而言，是否會在 2026 年下降，然後在 2027 年回升？只是時間表，然後也許是實現轉變所需的資金。

Yeah. Why don't I start and then I'll get Blain to maybe fill in. So look, on that one, without getting into specifics on what the capital would be, and by the way, we have done quite a bit of engineering and have a handle on what the capital would be, I mean, there's basically three prongs of work that we need to do there. One would be the actual conversion itself, and that's largely dealing with the burners, the coal burners turning them into gas. Secondly, there'd be some control work and upgrades that we need to do. And thirdly, you have to remember, and Blain always reminds me of this, we were harvesting the plant in the latter phases of its life, so there is a bit of maintenance work, I'd say, Blain, that we need to do to bring it up to a place where the plant would be able to run for well over a decade, going forward.

是的。為什麼我不先開始，然後讓布萊恩來填補。所以，就這一點而言，我們不必具體說明資本是多少，順便說一下，我們已經做了相當多的工程，並且已經掌握了資本是多少，我的意思是，基本上我們需要在那裡做三方面的工作。一個是實際的轉換本身，這主要與燃燒器有關，即煤炭燃燒器將煤炭轉化為氣體。其次，我們需要做一些控制工作和升級。第三，你必須記住，布萊恩總是提醒我這一點，我們是在植物生命的後期收穫的，所以布萊恩，我想說，我們需要做一些維護工作，使它達到一個可以在未來十多年運行的水平。

The cost of doing that work would be a fraction of what it would cost to do a newbuild. And when I think of that, it would be in the order of, I don't know, Blain, around 25%, probably, maybe a third of what a newbuild would be. So hopefully, that gives you a bit of a sense. Blain, I don't know if you want to add any color.

完成這項工作的成本只是建造新船成本的一小部分。當我想到這一點時，布萊恩，我認為它的價格大約是新建船舶價格的 25% 左右，也許是三分之一。希望這能給你一些啟發。布萊恩，我不知道你是否想添加任何顏色。

I think that's right. And if you remember, Mark. we have a lot of experience doing conversions with all the units we did here in Alberta. So we're building off that work and using the same teams that did that kind of value engineer the project at Centralia and come out with the best capital outcomes that we can.

我認為那是對的。如果你還記得的話，馬克。我們在阿爾伯塔省對所有單位進行轉換方面擁有豐富的經驗。因此，我們在此基礎上，使用在 Centralia 進行過此類價值工程的相同團隊，盡我們所能獲得最佳的資本成果。

And then just on the on the timing, Mark, the unit would shut down at the end of '25 in terms of coal-fired generation. And then it would be down for 2026 for us to do a bunch of the work that we need to do and make sure our gas supply is set up appropriately. And I think Blain, realistically, it would be a 2027-ish kind of return to service, I would think, in its in its new kind of form, roughly speaking.

然後就時間而言，馬克，就燃煤發電而言，該裝置將在 25 年底關閉。然後，我們將在 2026 年之前完成大量所需的工作，並確保我們的天然氣供應得到適當設定。我認為，布萊恩，實際上，它將在 2027 年左右以新的形式重新投入使用，大致如此。

And then, John, what's the gas supply constraint and how much capacity then you could actually provide to the customer right now?

那麼，約翰，天然氣供應限制是什麼？現在您實際上可以為客戶提供多少容量？

Yeah. I think -- so the customer has a gas supply. I think it's -- and transportation. I mean, the pipeline is literally across the street from our facility. I think we would view this in a phased kind of approach. And I think that we're working with them to come up with a way that the gas supply wouldn't be an issue. A little bit of a constraint probably blay in the first three to five years, I would say. And then the expectation would be that it would be unconstrained thereafter. But we're working to kind of debottleneck it even in the initial period.

是的。我認為—因此客戶有天然氣供應。我認為是──還有交通。我的意思是，管道就在我們工廠的街道對面。我認為我們會以分階段的方式來看待這個問題。我認為我們正在與他們合作，找到解決天然氣供應問題的方法。我想說，在最初的三到五年內可能會出現一些限制。然後預期它將不再受到約束。但即使在最初階段，我們也在努力消除瓶頸。

And can you put sort of a megawatt of capacity around what the gas supply could enable right off the gate?

您能否將天然氣供應能力設定為兆瓦左右？

So the unit would be there to backstop reliability in the region. And our intention right now is to have the 670 available. The gas supply issue would be how often it would be able to run it full tilt as opposed to the size of what the the unit offering would be. But the capacity factor for the unit, it's not like we're talking 50%. It would be. But the capacity factor forthe unit, it's not like we're talking 50%, it would be significantly below that in terms of providing reliability given the intermittency that we're seeing in the region there.

因此，該部隊將負責維護該地區的可靠性。我們現在的目標是讓 670 可用。天然氣供應問題在於它能夠多久全速運轉一次，而不是單位供應的規模。但該裝置的容量係數並不是我們所說的 50%。這將是。但是該機組的容量係數並不是我們所說的 50%，考慮到我們在該地區看到的間歇性，在提供可靠性方面它將遠低於這個數字。

Okay. That makes sense. Thanks for the time tooday.

好的。這很有道理。感謝您今天抽出時間。

Maurice Choy, RBC.

莫里斯·蔡（Maurice Choy），RBC。

Thanks and good morning, everyone. Just wanted to follow up on that potential M&A of legacy gas assets in the U.S. Absolutely recognizing that you haven't announced anything, it may not have happened, and you already have some trail in the region as well. But just thinking holistically, what is the strategic aim here? I wonder, is it to create a platform to grow in a non-renewable LNG way in the states? Is it to capture the growth in electricity in the states? Help me understand that, please.

謝謝大家，早安。只是想跟進一下美國遺留天然氣資產的潛在併購。我完全承認您還沒有宣布任何事情，這可能還沒有發生，而且您在該地區已經有了一些痕跡。但從整體思考，這裡的戰略目標是什麼？我想知道，這是否是為了在美國創造一個以不可再生的液化天然氣方式發展的平台？是為了抓住各州電力的成長嗎？請幫助我理解這一點。

Yeah. So I'd say from an M&A perspective, Maurice, I think you've actually kind of got it right. So what we have done is we've looked at our organization and looked at what our particular skill sets are. And we have a number. But two of them that are quite striking, at least from our perspective, is we do have the ability to run all types of generation.

是的。因此我想說，從併購的角度來看，莫里斯，我認為你實際上已經說對了。因此，我們所做的就是審視我們的組織並研究我們的特定技能。我們有一個數字。但其中兩個相當引人注目，至少從我們的角度來看，那就是我們確實有能力運行所有類型的發電。

Our ability to run generation in a technology-agnostic way is excellent, too. We're very good at dealing with customers and being able to provide solutions to them directly. And then finally, our trading and energy marketing expertise is super strong and a differentiator. A number of people don't realize this. I mean, we're the largest trader in the Pacific Northwest, for example, in Mid-Sea in terms of power. We have transmission that goes up and down the West Coast. And we've spent literally years and years moving power from the Desert Southwest, up through California, into the Pac Northwest, and back down again.

我們以不受技術限制的方式運行發電的能力也非常出色。我們非常擅長與客戶打交道並能夠直接為他們提供解決方案。最後，我們的貿易和能源行銷專業知識非常強大，並且具有差異化優勢。許多人沒有意識到這一點。我的意思是，我們是太平洋西北地區最大的貿易商，例如就電力而言，我們是中海地區最大的貿易商。我們的傳輸遍佈西海岸。我們花了數年時間將電力從沙漠西南部輸送到加利福尼亞，然後輸送到太平洋西北部，然後再輸送回來。

So we think that that is a region that with the expertise that we have and kind of the overall long-term growth prospects that it has that we can have a significant position in and be able to do extremely well for our shareholders. So it's really about mirroring the opportunity in a region and aligning it with the internal skills and capabilities that our organization has to create value for our shareholders. And I think it'll be a mix of greenfield, brownfield, and frankly, legacy assets that we could get from an M&A perspective. So that's, in essence, what we're trying to do.

因此，我們認為，憑藉我們所擁有的專業知識和整體長期成長前景，我們可以在該地區佔據重要地位，並為我們的股東帶來極好的回報。因此，這實際上是反映一個地區的機遇，並將其與我們組織為股東創造價值的內部技能和能力相結合。我認為它將是綠地、棕地以及從併購角度我們可以獲得的遺留資產的混合體。從本質上來說，這就是我們正在嘗試做的事情。

Understood. And maybe if you could just bring it all together and look at all the options that you have from Keephills to M&A to share buybacks, you mentioned -- I think Joel mentioned that the target debt to EBITDA is 3 or 4 times in that range. Can you share how much investment capacity you have before reaching the higher end of that range? And I think in the past, you also mentioned potentially seeking an investment-grade credit rating. Is that still on the table?

明白了。也許，如果您能將所有這些結合起來，看看您擁有的所有選擇，從 Keephills 到併購再到股票回購，您提到過——我認為 Joel 提到過，目標債務與 EBITDA 之比是該範圍內的 3 到 4 倍。您能否分享一下在達到該範圍的高端之前您的投資能力有多少？我認為您過去也提到可能尋求投資等級信用評級。這件事還在討論中嗎？

Yeah. Maurice, I'll start with the investment-grade rating. As a reminder, we do have an investment-grade rating today with DBRS. We are at BBB low with the stable outlook with them. And we are BB+ with a stable outlook with both Moody's and S&P. They've asked us that in the past, would we want to go to investment grade, and our view right now is that the sweet spot for us, if you will, it gives us the most financial flexibility to maintain the BB+ ratings with both S&P and Moody's; and the BBB- rating with DBRS. And with that comes a range of, as we've highlighted, around 3 to 4 times. We exited last year at 3.6 times, so we do have some capacity here going forward. And as the balance sheet grows, we'll see additional capacity that comes with it.

是的。莫里斯，我將從投資等級開始。提醒一下，我們今天對 DBRS 確實有投資等級。我們的 BBB 評級較低，但前景穩定。我們的評級為 BB+，穆迪和標準普爾都給予我們穩定展望。他們過去曾問過我們，我們是否願意評級為投資級，而我們現在的觀點是，對我們來說，最佳點是，它能給我們最大的財務靈活性，以維持標準普爾和穆迪的 BB+ 評級；並獲得 DBRS 的 BBB- 評級。正如我們所強調的，隨之而來的是大約 3 到 4 倍的範圍。我們去年的退出率為 3.6 倍，因此未來我們確實有一定的產能。隨著資產負債表的成長，我們將看到隨之而來的額外容量。

The one item too is the Brookfield convertible option, if you will, into the hydros. The agencies treat that as debt today. If Brookfield were to convert that option between now and the end of 2028, while the option is available to them, that does free up additional capacity as well. So when we look at where we sit today with our debt-to-EBITDA at around 3.5 times, and we look at our strong free cash flow generation, I think it looks very similar to where we were last year, Maurice, as far as the amount of capacity that we have.

如果你願意的話，其中一個項目是 Brookfield 可轉換選項，可以轉換為水力發電。這些機構如今將其視為債務。如果 Brookfield 在現在到 2028 年底之間轉換該選項（儘管他們有該選項），那麼這也會釋放額外的產能。因此，當我們看看我們目前的狀況時，我們的債務與 EBITDA 之比約為 3.5 倍，再看看我們強勁的自由現金流產生情況，我認為就我們的產能而言，這與我們去年的狀況非常相似，莫里斯。

So if you think about, for the Heartland acquisition, where we're able to fund that with our free cash flow along with draws on our credit facility, when we think about what we can spend going forward here, kind of living within our means without looking to any portfolio management or rotation, if you will, or common share issuance, you're kind of in that $500 million, probably to $750 million that we could spend.

因此，如果您考慮一下，對於 Heartland 收購案，我們可以利用我們的自由現金流以及信貸額度來為其提供資金，當我們考慮未來可以花多少錢時，量入為出，不考慮任何投資組合管理或輪換，或者發行普通股，我們可以花費的金額在 5 億美元，大概到 7.5 億美元之間。

Just to be clear, whilst you're -- the $500 million to $700 million you said living within your means, are you -- you're not ruling out asset sales and/or equity issuances to support the growth that you have there?

需要明確的是，雖然您說的 5 億到 7 億美元是量入為出，但您是否排除了資產出售和/或股票發行來支持成長的可能性？

We're not, Maurice. Not at all. What I'm saying is that, right now, just based on what we see in front of us, whether it's with data center opportunities here in Alberta, along with the Centralia opportunity, along with kind of what I call bite-sized, if you will, M&A opportunities, we think we can do all that with living within our means. To the extent that we see bigger opportunities, we'd certainly look to rotate capital and/or issue common equity. But again, as a reminder here, it has to be accretive to the shareholders. It has to be accretive to our earnings per share, to our cash flow per share. It has to be within strategy. It has to be underpinned by a long term contract. It has to check all those boxes before we look to rotate capital. But certainly, if we see an opportunity where we can sell an asset at 11 times and redeploy that into something at 6 times, we'll do that. A really great example of that was Heartland. We bought that at a 5.4 turns multiple. Again, if we see those types of opportunities, we'll do that and look to rotate capital.

我們不是，莫里斯。一點也不。我想說的是，現在，僅根據我們眼前所見，無論是阿爾伯塔省的資料中心機會，還是 Centralia 的機會，以及我所說的小型併購機會，我們認為我們可以量入為出。如果我們看到更大的機會，我們肯定會尋求輪換資本和/或發行普通股。但再次提醒一下，它必須能為股東帶來增值。它必須增加我們的每股盈餘和每股現金流。它必須符合戰略。它必須以長期合約為基礎。在我們考慮輪換資本之前，必須檢查所有這些條件。但當然，如果我們看到機會以 11 倍的價格出售資產，並以 6 倍的價格重新配置，我們就會這樣做。Heartland 就是一個很好的例子。我們以 5.4 倍的倍數購買了它。再說一次，如果我們看到這些類型的機會，我們就會這樣做並尋求輪換資本。

Yeah. I mean, we've got 88 facilities, Maurice, now in three different countries. And some of them are less, I would say, strategically important than others, being candid about it. So I think we've got quite a bit of flexibility.

是的。我的意思是，莫里斯，我們現在在三個不同的國家擁有 88 家工廠。坦白說，其中一些因素的戰略重要性不如其他因素。所以我認為我們有相當大的彈性。

The other thing I would say, Joel, is that the legacy asset opportunities have a bit of a slower burn. In other words, it's not like you're doing an acquisition where you need to come up with $500 million to execute it today. Dealing what we're dealing with here in Alberta from a thermal asset perspective and also dealing with the opportunity that we're seeing at Centralia, it's a bit more butter spread over a couple of year periods. So we do have capacity.

喬爾，我想說的另一件事是，遺留資產機會的消耗速度有點慢。換句話說，這並不像你在進行一項收購時需要拿出 5 億美元來今天執行。從熱資產的角度來處理我們在阿爾伯塔省所面臨的問題，以及我們在森特勒利亞看到的機會，就像在幾年內分攤更多的黃油。所以我們確實有能力。

That makes perfect sense. Thanks for the color.

這很有道理。謝謝你的顏色。

Patrick Kenny, National Bank.

派崔克肯尼，國家銀行。

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just first on your free cash flow guidance. Interest expense is up year-over-year for obvious reasons, but so is sustaining capital. So I was just wondering if you could provide a bit more color on the key drivers there. And then I guess as we look into 2026 and beyond, how your sustaining capital budget might evolve at least directionally towards a more normalized run rate?

是的。謝謝。早安.也許首先要了解的是您的自由現金流指導。由於顯而易見的原因，利息支出較去年同期成長，但維持資本也在成長。所以我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多關於其中關鍵驅動因素的詳細資訊。然後我想，當我們展望 2026 年及以後時，您的維持資本預算將如何朝著更正常的運作率發展至少？

Yeah. Good morning, Patrick. You're right, our sustaining capital kind of in that $145 million to $165 million in terms of the guidance we're guiding for 2025 is a little bit higher than it would have been over the last few years. We were plugged by -- in the range of around $20 million or so. The increase is reflective of two things. One of them would be, candidly, the addition of the Heartland assets into the organization which we're going to -- we've added 1.7 gigawatts of generation there. We need to maintain that. And that's something that we're going to need to do as part of the normal course of the operations of those facilities which has an impact on, I'd say, our run rate, Joel, from a capital spending perspective. And we're also doing a little more of what we would call, life extension/dam safety spending, I think, is what you would see that we're doing. I mean, those facilities are perpetual facilities from our perspective. And we're in a place where we have a few projects that we're focused on doing and we're executing on that. I think those are really the main drivers, I'd say. Joel?

是的。早上好，派崔克。您說得對，就我們 2025 年的指導方針而言，我們的維持資本約為 1.45 億美元至 1.65 億美元，比過去幾年略高一些。我們的資金大約在 2000 萬美元左右。這種增長反映了兩件事。坦白說，其中之一就是將 Heartland 資產添加到我們的組織中——我們在那裡增加了 1.7 千兆瓦的發電量。我們需要保持這一點。這是我們作為這些設施正常運作的一部分需要做的事情，從資本支出的角度來看，這會對我們的運作率產生影響，喬爾。我們還做了更多我們稱之為延長壽命/大壩安全支出的事情，我想，這就是你會看到我們正在做的事情。我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，這些設施是永久設施。我們現在有幾個重點項目正在做，並且正在執行。我認為這些才是真正的主要驅動因素。喬爾？

Yeah. And Pat, I think your point on interest expense, we did see that higher in the fourth quarter year-over-year due to us closing the Heartland acquisition, along with just more cash balances. And our guidance here, we're seeing kind of our expense to be probably about $15 million higher kind of year-over-year compared to where we were in 2024.

是的。帕特，我認為你提到的利息支出，我們確實看到第四季度的利息支出同比增長，因為我們完成了對 Heartland 的收購，同時現金餘額也增加了。根據我們的預測，與 2024 年相比，我們的支出可能比去年同期增加約 1500 萬美元。

And maybe one more thing, Patrick. We're taking a pretty conservative approach in our growth expenditures. So I think there would have been a time in the past where we would have sort of capitalized maybe a little bit more of that. We're going to do that at a later stage, I'd say, in the development life cycle of a project and having some of those expenditures kind of flow through in the year. That isn't a big driver, but it's a little bit of a change from our perspective, I'd say.

也許還有一件事，派崔克。我們在成長支出方面採取了相當保守的態度。所以我認為過去有一段時間我們會更多地利用這一點。我想說，我們將在專案開發生命週期的後期階段這樣做，並讓其中一些支出在一年內流動。這不是一個很大的驅動因素，但我想說，從我們的角度來看，這是一個小小的改變。

Okay. Thanks for that color. Appreciate that. Shifting gears, any update on the AESO's proposal or process here to look at securing strategic reserves? And as things have progressed on the data center front, how you might be thinking about the relative value of contracting any of your CTG assets, either the ones that are operating or mothballed with the AESO, as opposed to holding them back and being available for contracting with any private behind-the-meter customers?

好的。謝謝你這個顏色。非常感謝。換個話題，AESO 關於確保策略儲備的提案或流程有什麼最新消息嗎？隨著資料中心的進展，您如何考慮與 AESO 簽訂任何 CTG 資產（無論是正在運營的還是已封存的）簽訂合約的相對價值，而不是保留它們並與任何私人電錶後客戶簽訂合約？

Yeah. So look, just broadly speaking and very quickly, just on the ramp on the market redesign, and Blain can jump in here as well, I would say that that is progressing. There's a lot of work to be done. I think we've seen kind of the first sort of overall proposal that the ISO is looking at for the market construct plan, I guess, late last year. And there's been input that's been provided and that engagement continues.

是的。所以，從廣義上講，非常快地，就在市場重新設計的坡道上，布萊恩也可以加入進來，我想說，這正在取得進展。還有很多工作要做。我想我們已經看到了 ISO 正在研究的有關市場建設計劃的第一個總體提案，大概是在去年年底。並且已經提供了意見，並且這種參與仍在繼續。

Thematically though, I would say, we're seeing in the market construct, particularly with the development of kind of that day-ahead market, a construct that favors dispatchable generation that has capacity that it can provide into the market. So given the mix of fleet that we have in the province of Alberta, that bodes well certainly for our gas fleet and our hydro fleet as we go forward. So from that perspective, it's positive.

不過，從主題上來說，我想說，我們在市場結構中看到，特別是隨著日前市場的發展，這種結構有利於可調度的發電，這種發電具有可以向市場提供的容量。因此，考慮到我們在阿爾伯塔省擁有的車隊組合，這無疑預示著我們的天然氣車隊和水力車隊未來的發展前景良好。所以從這個角度來看，這是正面的。

In terms of the more direct issue of where would you direct your thermal generation, I mean, hydro would be a premium product. We believe there is more value in having those units around to contract directly with customers from a data center perspective than earmarking them for, let's just call it, broadly reliability products. And that's what our current focus is. There was a bit of a discussion, for example, about reliability contracts earlier on that that would have had, as a requirement that a unit be taken off, for example, from the grid at the end of that period of time.

至於更直接的問題，即您將把熱力發電引向何處，我的意思是，水力發電將是一種優質產品。我們認為，從資料中心的角度來看，讓這些部門直接與客戶簽訂合約比將它們指定用於（我們稱之為）廣泛的可靠性產品更有價值。這就是我們目前的重點。例如，之前曾討論過可靠性合同，其中規定要求在一段時期結束時將一個機組從電網中撤出。

That's not something that, I would say, Blain, we're all that particularly interested in. I think there's tremendous option value in the fleet. And right now, given our hedging ability, we'd rather have our units available to just operate in the market. We like what we're seeing from a day-ahead perspective, incentivizing dispatchable generation in the market design going forward and really working to meet data data center needs. I don't know, Blain, anything to add there?.

我想說，布萊恩，這不是我們大家特別感興趣的事。我認為該艦隊具有巨大的選擇價值。而現在，考慮到我們的對沖能力，我們寧願讓我們的單位在市場上運作。我們喜歡從未來角度看到的結果，即在未來的市場設計中激勵可調度發電，並真正努力滿足資料中心的需求。我不知道，布萊恩，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

New utility service products, the ramping products, that would favor our peaking capacity as well as our hydro facilities. So a lot of like John mentioned, market design components that favor dispatchable fast-ramping generation that we kind of positioned our fleets for.

新的公用事業服務產品，即爬坡產品，將有利於我們的尖峰容量以及水力設施。因此，正如約翰所提到的，許多市場設計組件都有利於可調度的快速增壓發電，而我們的車隊正是為此而定位的。

Okay. And then a follow-up in terms of offering a green option for your potential data center customers in Alberta. Can you just walk us through the various ways you could help your customers decarbonize their footprint over time? And how you're thinking about bearing the cost or sharing the risk related to the industrial carbon tax going forward?

好的。然後，我們將為您在阿爾伯塔省的潛在資料中心客戶提供綠色選擇。您能否向我們介紹一下可以幫助您的客戶逐步減少碳足跡的各種方法？您如何考慮未來承擔工業碳稅的成本或分擔相關風險？

Yeah. Maybe a couple of things there. So first of all, we have a significant portfolio of environmental attributes. And that portfolio is supplemented every year as our wind generation and our hydrogeneration operates in the province of Alberta which is helpful, I think, from an industrial carbon pricing perspective which I think, Patrick, it's probably fair to say, is a bit of a question mark as we go forward given where Ottawa might be going two, three, four, five months from now and how that trickles down into the province.

是的。那裡可能有幾件事。首先，我們擁有大量的環境屬性組合。由於我們的風力發電和氫能發電在阿爾伯塔省運營，因此該投資組合每年都會得到補充，我認為這從工業碳定價的角度來看是有幫助的，帕特里克，公平地說，考慮到渥太華可能在兩、三、四、五個月後採取的行動以及這些行動將如何影響該省，我們未來的發展仍是一個問號。

More directly, we do have merchant wind generation in the province of Alberta which, uniquely, I think we have and are able to kind of bundle with the offerings that we have, for example, at Keephills to create a greener product.

更直接地說，我們在阿爾伯塔省確實擁有商用風力發電，我認為我們擁有這種獨特能力，並且能夠將其與我們現有的產品（例如在 Keephills）捆綁在一起，以創造出更環保的產品。

And then finally, we also have projects that we had put a bit on hold given the uncertainty around them that we can bring to also provide green power to supplement the data center. And Tempus is a great example of that, a 100-megawatt wind farm that we can bring on. We've continued to advance that product so that it can be available. And we even have a bit of work around doing potential solar, up at the old mine sites that we have in West Central Alberta.

最後，由於周圍的不確定性，我們也暫時擱置了一些項目，我們也可以提供綠色能源來補充資料中心。Tempus 就是一個很好的例子，我們可以建造一個 100 兆瓦的風力發電場。我們不斷改進該產品，以便它能夠上市。我們甚至在阿爾伯塔省中西部的舊礦場開展了一些潛在的太陽能工作。

So it's a combination of things that we're working through to kind of provide that option to the extent it's required. And we think longer term, it will be, candidly. I think the focus right now is on speed to power and reliability. And thermal is a critical component of that. But we haven't lost, I'd say, Blain, kind of the thread on the need to be responsible from a decarbonization perspective overall.

因此，我們正在努力透過多種方式來提供所需的選項。坦白說，我們認為從長遠來看，確實如此。我認為現在的重點是速度、功率和可靠性。熱能是其中的關鍵組成部分。但我想說，布萊恩，我們並沒有失去從脫碳角度整體負責任的必要性。

Okay. That's great. Appreciate all the comments. I'll leave it there.

好的。那太棒了。感謝所有評論。我就把它留在那裡。

John Mould, TD Cowen.

約翰·莫爾德（John Mould），TD Cowen。

Hi. Good morning, everybody. Maybe just continuing on the Alberta theme here just on where you're seeing surplus capacity in the province right now? I think you previously characterized it as around 1 to 2 gigawatts. How has your thinking evolved based on the generation dynamics you've seen so far this year with the new supply? And you've got the pending mothballing at at Sun 6? And the gas builds on the data center front, from your perspective, does that potentially directly drive the need for that Sundance site redevelopment over the midterm, whether it's more gas conversions or potentially bringing back to Sun 5 repowering, like, how are you thinking about all those moving parts in the broader supply dynamic in the province?

你好。大家早安。也許只是繼續討論阿爾伯塔省的主題，看看您現在看到該省的產能過剩嗎？我認為您之前將其描述為大約 1 到 2 千兆瓦。根據您今年迄今看到的新增供應的發電動態，您的想法有何變化？你們在 Sun 6 有待封存嗎？從您的角度來看，天然氣在資料中心前端的建設是否可能直接推動中期聖丹斯站點重建的需求，無論是更多的天然氣轉換還是可能恢復到 Sun 5 的再供電，您如何看待該省更廣泛的供應動態中的所有這些活動部件？

Good morning, John. I think we could probably spend hours responding to that question, but let me try. So we do think the market is oversupplied at the moment. I mean, we've got 23-and-a-bit-thousand megawatts of installed capacity. And we peak at around, call it, 12,000, sometimes a little bit more, between 12,000 and 13,000. So there is quite a bit of supply in the province.

早安，約翰。我想我們可能需要花幾個小時來回答這個問題，但請讓我試試。所以我們確實認為目前市場供過於求。我的意思是，我們的裝置容量有 2300 多兆瓦。我們的峰值約為 12,000，有時會更多一點，在 12,000 到 13,000 之間。因此該省的供應量相當大。

And then when we think of, for example, load growth in the province which we do think will occur, for example, from data centers, I think the market can comfortably absorb 1 to 2 gigawatts, some number in that range. That would be a TransAlta view in terms of what it can absorb and keep. And that has two things associated with it.

然後，當我們想到，例如，我們確實認為會發生的省內負荷增長，例如來自資料中心的負載增長，我認為市場可以輕鬆吸收 1 到 2 千兆瓦，這個範圍內的一些數字。就其能夠吸收和保留的內容而言，這就是 TransAlta 的觀點。這與兩件事有關。

One, I think the reliability of the market stays intact which I think is critically important, not just to the ISO, candidly, it's very important from a TransAlta perspective if that's the case. And secondly, there is the generation to be able to just deal with that from a speed to power perspective. And people have heard the Premier say people need to bring their own power. From our perspective, having units that are more in the vein of peaking units which, with capacity factors that are below 50% like our coal-to-gas units up in the region, are ideally suited to actually meeting that need given that they can flex up and actually provide additional capacity in the market when it's needed. I think kind of new generation -- and by the way, as the as the data centers come in, I think it helps to rebalance the supply and demand imbalance that exists today in the marketplace with more constructive pricing. And because I think where we are today is not -- I think pricing that incense new generation coming into the province.

首先，我認為市場的可靠性保持不變，這一點至關重要，不僅對 ISO 而言，坦白說，從 TransAlta 的角度來看，如果情況確實如此，這一點也非常重要。其次，新一代人能夠從速度和力量的角度來解決這個問題。人們聽到總理說人們需要自力更生。從我們的角度來看，擁有更類似於峰值機組的機組，其容量係數低於 50%，就像我們在該地區的煤製氣機組一樣，非常適合實際滿足這一需求，因為它們可以靈活調整併在市場需要時實際提供額外的容量。我認為新一代——順便說一句，隨著資料中心的出現，我認為它有助於透過更具建設性的定價來平衡當今市場上存在的供需不平衡。因為我認為我們今天所處的境況不是——我認為定價是針對進入該省的新一代人的。

In terms of the redevelopment opportunity, we do see that more in the 2030s. I think we need to see what's going to happen in terms of the REM and how it's going to perform. I think you're going to see quite a bit of natural gas retiring, just end-of-life, candidly, in that time period beginning in the early 2030s. And we're also looking to see how technology develops. Is it gas? Is it hydrogen? Do do we need dual fuel capability? How does that progress as we go forward? So it is a bit of a longer timeframe, I would say. Blain, I don't know if you want to add any color to that, but that's just a thumbnail sketch.

就重建機會而言，我們確實在 2030 年代看到了更多機會。我認為我們需要看看 REM 會發生什麼以及它的表現如何。坦白說，我認為從 2030 年代初開始的那段時期，將會看到相當多的天然氣退役，也就是達到其使用壽命。我們也在關注科技如何發展。是瓦斯嗎？是氫嗎？我們需要雙燃料能力嗎？隨著我們繼續前進，這一進程將如何進行？所以我想說，這是一個較長的時間範圍。布萊恩，我不知道你是否想為其添加任何色彩，但這只是一個縮圖。

No. I think that's pretty good, John.

不。我認為這非常好，約翰。

Hopefully that helps, John.

希望這能有所幫助，約翰。

It does. Thank you. And then maybe just on the REM, the higher level framework I think it's fair to say is known but still lots of details to sort out. Are you expecting there'll be sufficient clarity on those details later in the year and the market structure elements so that both you, as an IPP, and large loads, the hyperscaler, co-locators are comfortable signing for agreement? Do you see that as a barrier? Is the REM and its progress a barrier at all to those deals being finalized?

確實如此。謝謝。然後也許只是在 REM 上，我認為可以說更高等級的框架是已知的，但仍有許多細節需要理清。您是否預計今年稍後這些細節和市場結構要素將會足夠清晰，以便您作為 IPP 以及大負載、超大規模商、共置商都可以輕鬆地簽署協議？您認為這是一個障礙嗎？REM 及其進展是否會成為這些協議最終達成的障礙？

Yeah. I don't -- at least we're not seeing it right now as being a barrier. And candidly, our strategy is by doing the work that we're doing, candidly, in Centralia here in Alberta, we're really focused on contracting our assets. So I think you'll see over time our our merchant exposure probably declined. But Blain, I know you're in those discussions as well as I am, I mean, just your view on that. I'm not sure it's --

是的。我不這麼認為——至少我們現在不認為這是一個障礙。坦白說，我們的策略是透過在阿爾伯塔省森特勒利亞開展我們正在做的工作，我們真正專注於承包我們的資產。因此我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到我們的商家曝光度可能會下降。但是布萊恩，我知道你和我一樣參與了這些討論，我的意思是，我只是對此發表了你的看法。我不確定--

No. I think that's right, John, is that we are trying to insulate ourselves from market events and market design elements while contracting the assets as best we can.

不。約翰，我認為這是對的，我們正在盡力使自己免受市場事件和市場設計因素的影響，同時盡可能地收縮資產。

On the timing comment, John, that you asked about, I would expect that as we progress through 2025, those higher level design elements will be further refined. It will have a good sense of what that those actually look like and what the impacts will be. We are doing our own modeling even with the higher level of design elements right now to understand the impacts, both on our fleet, and how we can communicate that to potential customers and what we should be focused on.

約翰，關於您詢問的時間問題，我預計隨著我們進入 2025 年，這些更高級別的設計元素將進一步完善。它將很好地了解這些實際上是什麼樣子以及會產生什麼影響。我們正在進行自己的建模，甚至採用更高層級的設計元素，以了解對我們車隊的影響，以及如何將其傳達給潛在客戶以及我們應該關注的重點。

And when I say the timing, we'd expect to be kind of moving through 2025 and getting to the stage by the end of the year where we have a pretty clear picture that the implementation plan that the ISO has to get the market kind of running in the shadow market type of framework so that they can fully implement by the end of 2027 that needs to start happening at the end of this year.

當我說到時間時，我們預計會在 2025 年左右，並在年底前進入一個階段，屆時我們會對 ISO 的實施計劃有一個非常清晰的認識，即讓市場在影子市場類型的框架中運行，以便他們可以在 2027 年底前全面實施，而這需要在今年年底開始發生。

Okay. Got it. Maybe one last one on renewables. How much of your BD time is being spent on potential renewable projects versus thermal site optimizations, acquisitions? And not asking for you to preview the November Investor Day right now, but just looking for a sense of how your broader corporate thinking around capital allocation towards renewables versus thermal is is evolving.

好的。知道了。也許最後一個是關於再生能源的。您的 BD 時間中有多少花在了潛在的可再生項目上，有多少花在了熱電廠場地優化和收購上？我現在並不是要求您預覽 11 月的投資者日，而只是想了解您在再生能源與熱能資本配置方面的更廣泛的企業思維是如何演變的。

Trying to answer that, I would say our M&A team is busy right now. I would say, in terms of our commercial and business development teams, our (inaudible) large, the majority of their time would be spent on extracting value from the legacy facilities. Those returns are really constructive returns and it's a real focus for the organization. We think it benefits our shareholders the most. So renewables development would be the minority at the time that we're spending right now. And that's not just progressing projects. I think we often lose sight of this. That team is also the one that is more focused on the renewables, also focused just on pipelines.

為了回答這個問題，我想說我們的併購團隊現在很忙。我想說，就我們的商業和業務開發團隊而言，我們的（聽不清楚）大部分時間都會花在從遺留設施中提取價值。這些回報確實是建設性的回報，也是組織真正關注的重點。我們認為這對我們的股東最有利。因此，就我們目前的支出而言，再生能源開發只佔少數。這不僅僅是推進專案。我認為我們常常忽略這一點。團隊也更加關注再生能源，也只關注管道。

So we think we're in a phase where legacy assets and I would say, more thermal-related opportunities are where our sweet spot is in kind of the immediate foreseeable sort of future, M&A aside. And then kind of more into a normal cadence where you would see renewables coming in a little bit later in the decade. So I hope that gives you a bit of a set on the -- like I think it's critical for growth teams to be able to pivot towards the best opportunities that they see in front of them in the particular period. And that's exactly what we've done, I think, that'll be critical going forward.

因此，我們認為我們正處於這樣一個階段：除了併購之外，遺留資產和更多的熱能相關機會是我們近期可預見的未來的最佳選擇。然後，你會進入一個更正常的節奏，即十年後不久，再生能源就會出現。所以我希望這能給你一些啟發——我認為對於成長團隊來說，在特定時期內轉向他們面前的最佳機會是至關重要的。我認為這正是我們所做的，這對未來發展至關重要。

Okay. Those are my questions. Thank you very much.

好的。這些都是我的問題。非常感謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Benjamin Pham, BMO.

班傑明‧範 (Benjamin Pham)，BMO。

Hi. Good morning. Just going back to the Alberta redevelopment opportunities, as you have conversations with the counterparties at $20 million or so you've mentioned, do you get the sense that the amount of megawatt needs way outstrip the supply? Or anything that you can provide?

你好。早安.回到阿爾伯塔省重建機會的問題，正如您提到的那樣，您與交易對手就 2000 萬美元左右進行了交談，您是否覺得兆瓦的需求量遠遠超過了供應量？或您能提供什麼？

Good morning, Ben. It's hard to answer that question, honestly. I think maybe the best way to answer it is sort of twofold.

早安，本。說實話，這個問題很難回答。我認為回答這個問題的最佳方式可能是雙重的。

I think the phased offering that we have and in particular beginning with sort of 400 megawatts at K2, is more than adequate, I would say, for meeting the needs of a very substantial data center presence in the region. I'm just going from memory. You also need about an acre of land, I think, roughly speaking, for every 1 megawatt of generation to kind of build out effectively as part of this. So land supply is critically important. So I don't think we're constrained in terms of what we're proposing at Keephills, for example, both with K2 and K3 in terms of meeting the needs of a customer. And that would be very impactful to our company.

我認為，我們分階段提供的服務，特別是從 K2 的 400 兆瓦開始的服務，足以滿足該地區大量資料中心的需求。我只是根據記憶來理解。我認為，粗略地說，每建造 1 兆瓦的發電量還需要大約一英畝的土地才能有效實現。因此土地供應至關重要。因此，我認為我們在 Keephills 提出的建議方面不會受到限制，例如 K2 和 K3 在滿足客戶需求方面。這對我們公司的影響非常大。

On a more macro basis, we're not seeing any lapse in the increasing load data centers, AI-driven electrification, generally, I would say. And I think thematically, we're seeing jurisdictions be short power like whether, if anything, what's interesting about Alberta, it's actually a bit long-powered compared to many jurisdictions. And when we look at kind of the immediate jurisdictions around us and even looking at places like North Virginia and places like that, people are short powered. So the time it takes to get to market or get to the end state where you can kind of plug in and do is really long. And I think that's an advantage that Alberta has and that we have in particular.

從更宏觀的角度來看，我認為我們總體上沒有看到資料中心負載增加、人工智慧驅動的電氣化出現任何失誤。我認為從主題上看，我們看到司法管轄區的權力不足，例如，如果有的話，阿爾伯塔省的有趣之處在於，與許多司法管轄區相比，它的權力實際上有點長。當我們審視周圍的直接管轄區，甚至審視北維吉尼亞等地時，我們會發現人們的能力不足。因此，進入市場或達到可以插入並執行的最終狀態所需的時間非常長。我認為這是阿爾伯塔省的優勢，尤其是我們的優勢。

Got it. And can you walk through, you mentioned a transmission connection application in-service states and whatnot, can you talk about beyond the connection? What's the regulatory process beyond that?

知道了。您能否詳細介紹一下，您提到了傳輸連接應用程式的服務狀態等等，您能談談連接之外的內容嗎？除此之外，監管流程是怎麼樣的？

So there's a few things that we need to have in place, and they range everything from, just to give you a sense of the work that that is required, everything from rezoning the land that we have there so that it is appropriate to be used for a data center. We actually have a road we need to close. So we need permitting and relaxations around that. We need to be able to go through the interconnection process which goes through multiple stages. I think the first stage is pretty straightforward, Blain. There's, I think, three or four stages that you need to go through. It would take some time, months, to be able to see that through.

因此，我們需要做好一些事情，這些事情包括一切，只是為了讓您了解所需的工作，從重新劃分我們那裡的土地，以使其適合用於資料中心。我們確實有一條道路需要關閉。因此我們需要對此給予許可並放寬限制。我們需要能夠完成經過多個階段的互連過程。我認為第一階段非常簡單，布萊恩。我認為你需要經歷三個或四個階段。要實現這一點需要一些時間，幾個月的時間。

What other permits do we need? A building permit, frankly, to be able to get the data center built. Our assessment of the time to actually get to where we need to go. The critical path item isn't really the permitting process. I think the critical path item for us is making sure that we can get things like breakers and transformers, candidly, to be able to move the power from our plants. The distance, which isn't a long distance, that would go to the site that would be ideal for the data center to locate. And from a high-voltage out of the plant to be stepped down to the appropriate voltage to go down into the data center. That's a critical path item. Like getting transformers and breakers. I don't know, Blain, 18 months, 2 years, to get some of that done.

我們還需要什麼許可證？坦白說，建築許可證就是能夠建造資料中心的許可證。我們評估了到達目的地所需的時間。關鍵路徑專案其實並不是許可流程。我認為對我們來說關鍵的路徑項目是確保我們可以獲得斷路器和變壓器等物品，坦白說，能夠從我們的工廠輸送電力。到達資料中心理想位置的距離並不長。並將電廠出來的高壓電壓降壓至適當的電壓，傳送到資料中心。這是一個關鍵路徑專案。就像獲得變壓器和斷路器一樣。布萊恩，我不知道，需要 18 個月還是 2 年才能完成其中的一些任務。

We know that the build of the data center itself is roughly a two-year time period, 18 months to 2 years, so there is broad alignment around that. And we're actually thinking about maybe going out and ordering some of that equipment just so that we can get ahead of the queue.

我們知道資料中心本身的建設大約需要兩年的時間，18個月到2年，因此在這方面存在廣泛的一致性。我們實際上正在考慮出去訂購一些設備，以便我們能夠排在隊伍前面。

Okay. Got it. And just one more, if I may. Thanks a lot for that. You referenced Tier 4 reliability. And that's actually pretty much no doubt downtime. It is the requirement then for K2, K3 to -- is it more availability above 90% and then the BTF affected buys the difference from the spot market or some other source?

好的。知道了。如果可以的話，我再說一句。非常感謝。您提到了 Tier 4 可靠性。這實際上幾乎毫無疑問是停機時間。那麼，對 K2、K3 的要求是——可用性是否高於 90%，然後受影響的 BTF 從現貨市場或其他來源購買差額？

That is correct. You broke up there a little bit. But I think you're 100% right. So when we think of Tier 4, you're right, it's 99.999%. I think it's 99.999% in terms of what the availability is. So the work that we have done is what do we need to do to make sure that our unit will be available, I'd say, Blain, roughly 90% of the time. And that engineering work is done. And that's not that far off from where, frankly, the unit is now with the residual 10% coming from the grid to be able to give you that additional 10% of availability that you need.

沒錯。你們在那裡分手了一點。但我認為你百分之百正確。因此，當我們想到 Tier 4 時，您是對的，它是 99.999%。我認為可用性是 99.999%。因此，我們所做的工作就是確保我們的單位能夠隨時待命，我想說，布萊恩，大約 90％ 的時間都可以隨時待命。工程工作已經完成。坦白說，這與現在的情況相差不遠，該裝置剩餘的 10% 來自電網，能夠為您提供所需的額外 10% 的可用性。

I'd say there's also a difference in the customer. I think with the hyperscaler, they do want to have that availability all of the time, no matter what. With a co-locator, sometimes, your flexibility to be able to deal with things like maintenance and maybe a shape to the availability periodically is a little bit better. But then I think the way you articulated it is exactly right.

我想說顧客也有差異。我認為，對於超大規模企業來說，無論如何，他們確實希望始終擁有這種可用性。有時候，有了共同定位器，您可以更靈活地處理維護等事務，並可能定期調整可用性。但我認為你表達的方式是完全正確的。

Okay. Understood. Thank you.

好的。明白了。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back to Stephanie for closing remarks.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，隊列中沒有其他問題了。現在我想請史蒂芬妮做最後發言。

Thank you, everyone. That concludes our call for today. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the TransAlta Investor Relations team.

謝謝大家。今天的通話到此結束。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯絡 TransAlta 投資者關係團隊。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。