TransAlta Corp (TAC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Ina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to TransAlta Corporation fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫伊娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 TransAlta Corporation 2023 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。（操作員說明）

Thank you. Ms. Valentini, you may begin your conference.

謝謝。瓦倫蒂尼女士，您可以開始會議了。

Great. Thank you, Ina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to TransAlta's fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 conference call. With me today are John Kousinioris, President and Chief Executive Officer; Todd Stack, VP Finance and Chief Financial Officer; and Kerry O'Reilly Wilks, EVP, Growth and Energy Marketing.

偉大的。謝謝你，伊娜。大家早安，歡迎參加 TransAlta 2023 年第四季和全年電話會議。今天和我在一起的有總裁兼執行長約翰‧庫西尼奧里斯 (John Kosinioris)； Todd Stack，財務副總裁兼財務長；以及成長和能源行銷執行副總裁 Kerry O'Reilly Wilks。

Today's call is being webcast, and I invite those listening on the phone lines to view the supporting slides that are posted on our website. A replay of the call will be available later today, and the transcript will also be posted shortly thereafter.

今天的電話會議正在網路上直播，我邀請那些在電話線上收聽的人查看我們網站上發布的支援幻燈片。今天稍後將提供電話會議的重播，會議記錄也將在不久後發布。

All the information provided during this conference call is subject to the forward-looking statement qualification set out here on slide 2, detailed further in our MD&A and incorporated in full for the purposes of today's call.

本次電話會議期間提供的所有資訊均須遵守投影片 2 中列出的前瞻性聲明資格，這些資訊在我們的 MD&A 中進一步詳細說明，並出於今天電話會議的目的而完整納入。

All amounts referenced during the call are in Canadian currency unless otherwise noted. The non-IFRS terminology used, including adjusted EBITDA, funds from operations, and free cash flow are reconciled in the MD&A for your reference.

除非另有說明，通話期間提及的所有金額均以加拿大貨幣為單位。使用的非 IFRS 術語，包括調整後 EBITDA、營運資金和自由現金流量，均在 MD&A 中進行了核對，供您參考。

On today's call, John and Todd will provide an overview of the annual and quarterly results. After these remarks, we will open the call for questions.

在今天的電話會議上，約翰和托德將概述年度和季度業績。在這些發言之後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me turn the call over to John.

現在，讓我把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Chiara. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth-quarter and full-year results call for 2023. As part of our commitment towards reconciliation, I want to begin by acknowledging that TransAlta's head office, where we are today, is located in the traditional territories of the people of Treaty 7, which includes the Blackfoot group [courtesy] comprising the Siksika, the Piikani, and the Kainai First Nation, the Tsuut'ina First Nation, and the Stoney Nako -- Stoney-Nakoda, including the Chiniki, Bearspaw, and Goodstoney First Nations. The City of Calgary is also home to the Metis Nation of Alberta, Districts 5 and 6.

謝謝你，基亞拉。大家早安，感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。作為我們和解承諾的一部分，我首先要承認，TransAlta 的總部（我們今天所在的地方）位於第 7 號條約人民的傳統領土上，其中包括由錫克西卡人（Siksika）、皮卡尼(Piikani) 、凱奈(Kainai) 原住民、蘇蒂納(Tsuut'ina) 原住民和斯托尼納科(Stoney Nako) - 斯托尼-納科達(Stoney-Nakoda)，包括奇尼基(Chiniki)、熊爪(Bearspaw) 和古德斯通尼(Goodstoney) 原住民。卡加利市也是艾伯塔省梅蒂斯民族、第 5 區和第 6 區的所在地。

It was another exceptional year of performance for TransAlta in which we increased our key financial guidance and targets twice. We generated free cash flow of $890 million or $3.22 per share from record revenues of $3.4 billion. We had adjusted EBITDA of $1.63 billion, in line with our record results from last year, and record net earnings to shareholders of $644 million, a $640 million increase from 2022.

今年是 TransAlta 業績優異的一年，我們兩次提升了關鍵財務指導和目標。我們從創紀錄的 34 億美元收入中創造了 8.9 億美元的自由現金流，即每股 3.22 美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 16.3 億美元，與去年創紀錄的業績一致，股東淨利創紀錄為 6.44 億美元，比 2022 年增加了 6.4 億美元。

We benefited from strong power prices, particularly during periods of market tightness and the exceptional efforts of our optimization, energy marketing, and operations teams. Our integrated and diversified fleet continued to show its value by generating excellent results for the third year in a row. We achieved fleet availability of 88.8% across our facilities, which, when adjusted for the Kent Hills extended outage, actually resulted in an underlying performance of 92.8%.

我們受益於強勁的電價，特別是在市場緊張時期，以及我們的最佳化、能源行銷和營運團隊的卓越努力。我們的一體化和多元化機隊連續第三年取得優異成績，繼續展現其價值。我們的設施的機隊可用性達到了 88.8%，根據肯特山長期停電進行調整後，實際的基本性能達到了 92.8%。

I'm pleased to also share that 2023 was a record year for safety performance. We operated without any lost time injuries across our global operations and delivered a total recordable injury frequency rate of 0.3, an outstanding result that improved upon our previous best outcome ever of 0.39 last year.

我還很高興地告訴大家，2023 年是安全績效創紀錄的一年。我們在全球營運中沒有發生任何誤工工傷，總可記錄工傷頻率為 0.3，這是一個出色的成績，比我們去年的最佳成績 0.39 有所提高。

During the year and more recently in the fourth quarter, we delivered on a number of key priorities and strategic initiatives. First, our growth team advanced 678 megawatts of construction projects. We completed construction and reached commercial operation of our Garden Plain wind facility in Alberta and the Northern Goldfields combined solar and battery storage facilities in Australia, representing an addition of 178 megawatts of renewables to order.

在這一年以及最近的第四季度，我們實現了許多關鍵優先事項和策略性舉措。首先，我們的成長團隊推進了678兆瓦的建設項目。我們完成了位於艾伯塔省的花園平原風力發電設施和澳洲北部金礦聯合太陽能和電池儲存設施的建設並實現商業運營，這意味著新增了 178 兆瓦的可再生能源訂單。

As for our remaining projects, we expect the 200-megawatt Horizon Hill and 300-megawatt White Rock Wind facilities along with the Mount Keith transmission expansion to achieve commercial operation in March 2024.

至於我們的其餘項目，我們預計 200 兆瓦 Horizo​​n Hill 和 300 兆瓦 White Rock Wind 設施以及 Mount Keith 輸電擴建將於 2024 年 3 月實現商業運營。

A portion of the White Rock Wind facilities reached COD earlier this year. Together, these facilities, along with the fully rehabilitated Kent Hills facility, will contribute over $175 million in adjusted EBITDA annually.

白石風力發電設施的一部分已於今年稍早達到 COD。這些設施連同全面修復的肯特山設施，每年將為調整後 EBITDA 貢獻超過 1.75 億美元。

Second, we advanced two key strategic initiatives with the acquisition of TransAlta Renewables and Heartland Generation. The acquisition of TransAlta Renewables represented an important milestone for our company. It allow us to simplify and unify our corporate and capital structure and at a net economic interest in 1.2 gigawatts of high-quality generating capacity to our fleet. The combination enables us to enhance execution with the simplified and unified strategy, which positions us well for future success.

其次，我們透過收購 TransAlta Renewables 和 Heartland Generation 推進了兩項關鍵策略措施。收購 TransAlta Renewables 是我們公司的一個重要里程碑。它使我們能夠簡化和統一我們的公司和資本結構，並為我們的機組帶來 1.2 吉瓦的高品質發電能力的淨經濟利益。此次合併使我們能夠透過簡化和統一的策略來增強執行力，這為我們未來的成功奠定了良好的基礎。

We also entered into an agreement to acquire Heartland Generation, which has approximately 1.8 gigawatts of contracted and peaking generation in Alberta and British Columbia. The regulatory approval process for the transaction is currently underway. And once approved, Heartland will add flexible and complementary assets to our Alberta portfolio, further diversifying our generation capabilities in that market.

我們還簽訂了收購 Heartland Generation 的協議，該公司在艾伯塔省和不列顛哥倫比亞省擁有約 1.8 吉瓦的合約發電量和尖峰發電量。目前該交易的監管審批程序正在進行中。一旦獲得批准，Heartland 將為我們的艾伯塔省投資組合添加靈活和互補的資產，進一步使我們在該市場的發電能力多樣化。

Third, we continue to advance our customer relationships. In the fourth quarter, we entered into a joint development agreement with Hancock Prospecting to define, develop and operate clean energy solutions in Australia. And finally, starting in April, our shareholders will receive a 9% increase to their common share dividend, representing our fifth consecutive annual increase. We also returned $87 million to our shareholders in 2023 through share repurchases.

第三，我們繼續推進客戶關係。第四季度，我們與 Hancock Prospecting 簽訂了聯合開發協議，在澳洲定義、開發和營運清潔能源解決方案。最後，從 4 月開始，我們的股東的普通股股利將增加 9%，這是我們連續第五年增加股利。2023 年，我們也透過股票回購向股東返還 8,700 萬美元。

With another quarter of strong cash flow, we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with over $1.7 billion in liquidity and are well positioned to deliver on our priorities. It's my view that the repositioning of our company and our strong free cash flow results over the past few years and our expectations for 2024 are not being reflected appropriately in the current trading price of our common shares.

隨著另一個季度強勁的現金流，我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，擁有超過 17 億美元的流動性，並有能力實現我們的優先事項。我認為，過去幾年我們公司的重新定位、強勁的自由現金流結果以及我們對 2024 年的預期並未適當反映在我們普通股當前的交易價格中。

As a result, we announced an enhanced common share repurchase program for 2024 of up to $150 million through our ongoing normal course issuer bid folks. With expected free cash flow of approximately $1.70 per share for 2024, we're trading at an implied free cash flow yield of about 20%, which allows share repurchases to deliver great value to our shareholders. This, together with our increased common share dividend of $0.24 per share represents a return of up to approximately 40% of the midpoint of our 2024 free cash flow guidance to our shareholders.

因此，我們透過正在進行的正常發行人投標人員宣布了 2024 年增強型普通股回購計劃，金額高達 1.5 億美元。預計 2024 年每股自由現金流約為 1.70 美元，我們的交易隱含自由現金流收益率約為 20%，這使得股票回購能夠為我們的股東帶來巨大價值。再加上我們增加的每股 0.24 美元的普通股股息，相當於我們向股東提供的 2024 年自由現金流指引中位數的約 40% 的回報。

Given the current environment, we believe this course of action is an appropriate and balanced use of our capital, while still permitting us to pursue growth opportunities with appropriate returns and maintain our balance sheet strength and resilience.

鑑於當前的環境，我們相信這一行動方針是對我們資本的適當和平衡的利用，同時仍然使我們能夠尋求具有適當回報的成長機會，並保持我們的資產負債表實力和彈性。

Over the longer term, we see significant opportunities for the company as the world increasingly electrifies to meet its growth in climate change goals. We continue to view investments in contracted clean energy assets as being in the best interest of the company and have articulated our clean electricity growth plan to 2028.

從長遠來看，隨著世界日益電氣化以實現其氣候變遷目標的成長，我們看到該公司面臨重大機會。我們仍然認為合約清潔能源資產的投資符合公司的最佳利益，並制定了到 2028 年的清潔電力成長計畫。

As you know, the company is targeting to add up to 1.75 gigawatts of new capacity to the company's fleet by investing approximately $3.5 billion to develop, construct, or acquire new assets through to the end of 2028 and expand our development pipeline to 10 gigawatts in the same period, all with a focus on customer-centered renewable storage. We're also focused on the selective expansion of flexible generation and reliability assets where our operating and optimization expertise can add value.

如您所知，該公司的目標是到2028 年底投資約35 億美元來開發、建造或收購新資產，從而為該公司的機隊增加多達1.75 吉瓦的新產能，並將我們的開發管道擴大到10 吉瓦。同一時期，所有重點都集中在以客戶為中心的可再生能源儲存。我們也專注於靈活發電和可靠性資產的選擇性擴張，我們的營運和優化專業知識可以在其中增加價值。

As we execute our plan to 2028, we expect that approximately 70% of our adjusted EBITDA will come to be sourced from clean generation as we increase the size of renewables in our fleet, significantly higher than the approximately 40% that we have today. And as we make the shift, TransAlta will be greener, more contracted, and more diversified.

當我們執行到 2028 年的計劃時，隨著我們增加再生能源規模，我們預計調整後 EBITDA 的約 70% 將來自清潔發電，這顯著高於目前的約 40%。隨著我們的轉變，TransAlta 將更加環保、更緊湊、更加多元化。

In the meantime, we continue to progress a number of projects towards final investment decisions, including projects not currently shown as being in advanced stage. We have been disciplined in advancing these projects focused on ensuring that they are appropriately derisked and construction ready with appropriate risk-adjusted returns, given the environment in which we have found ourselves.

同時，我們繼續推進一些專案以做出最終投資決策，包括目前未顯示為處於後期階段的專案。考慮到我們所處的環境，我們在推進這些專案時一直遵守紀律，重點是確保它們適當降低風險並做好施工準備，並獲得適當的風險調整回報。

Long-term shareholder value creation will ultimately drive our capital allocation decisions. If returns are insufficient, we'll continue to enhance value through dividends and share repurchases and by enhancing the strength of our balance sheet.

長期股東價值創造將最終推動我們的資本配置決策。如果回報不足，我們將繼續透過股利和股票回購以及增強資產負債表的實力來提高價值。

We're positioned to succeed over the balance of the decade and beyond with considerable optionality in our generating base and growth pipeline, coupled with our balance sheet strength and strong financial outlook.

我們的發電基礎和成長管道具有相當大的選擇性，再加上我們的資產負債表實力和強勁的財務前景，我們有能力在未來十年及更長時間內取得成功。

In 2023, we expanded our development pipeline by 1.35 gigawatts or approximately 30%, with prospective projects in all three of our core markets. And with the advancement in our growth pipeline in the fourth quarter, we've exceeded our original 5 gigawatt development pipeline target two years in advance.

2023 年，我們的開發管道擴大了 1.35 吉瓦，約 30%，在我們的所有三個核心市場都有潛在項目。隨著第四季度我們成長通路的進展，我們提前兩年超過了最初的 5 吉瓦開發通路目標。

Finally, our commitment to decarbonization remains unchanged, and the addition of the Heartland portfolio will continue to be aligned with our longer-term emissions reductions commitment given Heartland's considerable transition efforts. We continue to remain committed to our decarbonization targets and will achieve a 100% mix of renewables and low-emitting natural gas by 2025 and net zero by 2045.

最後，我們對脫碳的承諾保持不變，鑑於 Heartland 做出了巨大的轉型努力，增加 Heartland 產品組合將繼續與我們的長期減排承諾保持一致。我們持續致力於實現脫碳目標，到 2025 年實現再生能源和低排放天然氣 100% 混合，並在 2045 年實現淨零排放。

I'll now pass it over to Todd to go through our segment results.

現在我將把它交給托德來查看我們的細分結果。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll start my comments with a discussion on our Alberta portfolio and how it performed over the full year and fourth quarter of 2023. For the full year, we continue to realize high average merchant power pricing for energy and ancillary services across the merchant fleet in Alberta, and we were able to optimize our capacity across all fuel types in our portfolio. The spot price for the year averaged $134 per megawatt hour, which was below the average price of $162 for 2022.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。我將首先討論我們的艾伯塔省投資組合及其在 2023 年全年和第四季度的表現。全年，我們繼續實現艾伯塔省商船隊能源和輔助服務的高平均商業電價，並且我們能夠優化我們投資組合中所有燃料類型的產能。今年現貨價格平均為每兆瓦時 134 美元，低於 2022 年每兆瓦時 162 美元的平均價格。

Our hydro fleet in Alberta continued to outperform spot prices with an average realized price of $175 per megawatt hour, an exceptional 31% premium above spot price. Our gas fleet in Alberta also outperformed and exceeded our expectations, operating with strong availability and capturing peak pricing throughout the year of $162 per megawatt hour, which was 22% above the spot price.

我們在艾伯塔省的水力發電廠的表現繼續優於現貨價格，平均實現價格為每兆瓦時 175 美元，比現貨價格高出 31%。我們在艾伯塔省的天然氣船隊的表現也超出了我們的預期，其運行可用性很強，全年峰值價格為每兆瓦時 162 美元，比現貨價格高出 22%。

In the year, the gas fleet in Alberta also benefited from higher production levels during peak pricing as well as higher power price hedges, which partially offset the impact of lower Alberta spot pricing and increased carbon compliance costs.

今年，艾伯塔省的天然氣船隊還受益於高峰定價期間較高的產量水平以及較高的電價對沖，這部分抵消了艾伯塔省現貨定價較低和碳合規成本增加的影響。

Our merchant wind fleet realized an average price of $73 per megawatt hour, which was in line with our expectations. Our full year's results were impacted by warm weather during the fourth quarter of 2023, which impacted overall demand in the province and resulted in lower power prices than we were expecting relative to our revised guidance ranges. Weather conditions for the fourth quarter were very mild compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, which had periods of extreme cold weather.

我們的商業風力機隊實現了每兆瓦時 73 美元的平均價格，這符合我們的預期。我們的全年業績受到 2023 年第四季溫暖天氣的影響，影響了該省的整體需求，並導致電價低於我們相對於修訂後的指導範圍的預期。與 2022 年第四季的極端寒冷天氣相比，第四季的天氣條件非常溫和。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the spot price averaged $82 per megawatt hour, which was significantly below last year's fourth quarter price of $214. Our hedging program was able to partially mitigate the impact of lower power prices experienced in the fourth quarter. We had hedges on both our gas and hydro fleets with hedged volumes for the quarter of 1,700 gigawatt hours at an average price of $92 per megawatt hour.

2023年第四季，現貨價格平均為每兆瓦時82美元，明顯低於去年第四季214美元的價格。我們的對沖計劃能夠部分減輕第四季電價下跌的影響。我們對天然氣和水力發電量進行了對沖，本季的對沖量為 1,700 吉瓦時，平均價格為每兆瓦時 92 美元。

Looking forward to 2024, we have approximately 8,100 gigawatt hours of Alberta gas generation hedged at an average price of $85 per megawatt hour and roughly 72% of our required natural gas volumes are hedged at an average price of $2.76 per GJ.

展望2024 年，我們約有8,100 吉瓦時的艾伯塔省天然氣發電量以每兆瓦時85 美元的平均價格進行對沖，大約72% 的所需天然氣量以每吉焦2.76 美元的平均價格進行對沖。

Looking at our full-year corporate results, we had another exceptional year, which was led by our hydro, gas, and energy transition segments. The gas segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $801 million, a 27% increase over 2022.

看看我們的全年企業業績，我們又度過了非凡的一年，其中水力、天然氣和能源轉型部門引領了這一年。天然氣部門調整後 EBITDA 為 8.01 億美元，比 2022 年成長 27%。

Strong performance was driven by higher realized prices from our hedging activities, lower natural gas commodity costs, and higher production. Adjusted EBITDA at hydro delivered an exceptional contribution of $459 million. The modest decline compared to 2022 results was due to lower ancillary services volume, lower realized prices, and lower than average water resources. These results were partially offset by realized gains from hedging and sales of environmental attributes.

我們的對沖活動實現的價格上漲、天然氣商品成本下降以及產量增加推動了強勁的業績。Hydro 的調整後 EBITDA 貢獻高達 4.59 億美元。與 2022 年結果相比略有下降的原因是輔助服務量下降、實現價格下降以及水資源低於平均值。這些結果被環境屬性的避險和銷售所實現的收益部分所抵銷。

The energy transition segment delivered $122 million of adjusted EBITDA, an increase of 42% year over year. Strong performance was driven by higher production due to higher availability at our Centralia facility and higher merchant sales volumes, partially offset by lower market prices.

能源轉型部門實現調整後 EBITDA 1.22 億美元，年增 42%。強勁的業績是由我們的 Centralia 工廠的可用性提高和商家銷售增加導致產量增加所推動的，但市場價格下降部分抵消了這一影響。

The wind and solar segment delivered EBITDA of $257 million, a decrease of 17% year over year. Lower results were due to lower emission credit sales, lower power pricing in Alberta, and lower wind resource across the operating fleet, partially offset by the addition of our new assets.

風能和太陽能部門實現 EBITDA 2.57 億美元，年減 17%。較低的業績是由於排放信貸銷售減少、艾伯塔省電價下降以及營運船隊風資源減少造成的，但部分被我們新資產的增加所抵消。

And finally, our energy marketing segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $109 million, a decrease of $74 million, primarily due to lower realized settle trades during the year in comparison to the prior year. Energy marketing results were at the top end of our revised full year guidance provided in the second quarter of 2023. As John mentioned, overall, we delivered another strong year with $1.63 billion of adjusted EBITDA, consistent with our results from 2022.

最後，我們的能源行銷部門實現調整後 EBITDA 為 1.09 億美元，減少了 7,400 萬美元，這主要是由於與前一年相比，本年度已實現的結算交易減少。能源行銷業績處於我們 2023 年第二季提供的修訂後全年指引的頂端。正如 John 所提到的，總體而言，我們又迎來了強勁的一年，調整後 EBITDA 為 16.3 億美元，與 2022 年的業績一致。

I'll shift now to our fourth-quarter results. In the period, we generated $289 million of adjusted EBITDA and $121 million of free cash flow. Given the above average weather conditions in Q4 that contributed to lower-than-expected power prices in Alberta, our financial results for the fourth quarter were below our expectations for the period and below our 2022 results.

我現在轉向我們的第四季業績。在此期間，我們產生了 2.89 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 1.21 億美元的自由現金流。鑑於第四季度高於平均水平的天氣條件導致艾伯塔省電價低於預期，我們第四季度的財務業績低於我們同期的預期，也低於我們 2022 年的業績。

Let me remind you that our Q4 2022 results were extraordinary and driven by extreme weather and record power prices. As a result, year-over-year performance across all of our merchant assets was impacted by lower Alberta power prices.

讓我提醒您，我們 2022 年第四季的業績非常出色，這是由極端天氣和創紀錄的電價推動的。因此，我們所有商業資產的年比業績都受到艾伯塔省電價下降的影響。

In addition to power price impacts in both energy and ancillary services, the hydro segment was further affected by a longer than planned outage at our Brazeau facility and the wind and solar segment experienced lower wind resource in Eastern Canada and the US. Our gas fleet led performance in the quarter with EBITDA of $141 million and was supported by our highly hedged position going into the quarter.

除了能源和輔助服務的電價影響外，水力發電部門還因布拉佐工廠停電時間長於計畫而受到進一步影響，風能和太陽能部門在加拿大東部和美國的風能資源減少。我們的天然氣車隊在本季度表現出色，EBITDA 為 1.41 億美元，這得益於我們進入本季的高度對沖頭寸的支撐。

The energy transition segment outperformed expectations, exceeding 2022's EBITDA by 37%, primarily due to higher production that resulted from lower unplanned outages at the Centralia facility. Energy marketing adjusted EBITDA decreased by $49 million or 40% compared to 2022, primarily due to lower realized settle trades during the fourth quarter in comparison to the prior period. As is the nature of this segment, trades are realized in our EBITDA results when they settle with a portion of trades executed in 2023, settling and being realized over time in 2024 and 2025.

能源轉型部門的表現超出預期，超過 2022 年 EBITDA 37%，主要是由於 Centralia 工廠計劃外停電減少導致產量增加。與 2022 年相比，能源行銷調整後的 EBITDA 減少了 4,900 萬美元，即 40%，這主要是由於第四季度實現的結算交易量較上年同期減少。由於該細分市場的性質，當交易與 2023 年執行的部分交易進行結算時，交易就會在我們的 EBITDA 結果中實現，並隨著時間的推移在 2024 年和 2025 年結算並實現。

Overall, 2023 was a strong year, delivering free cash flow of $890 million, well within our revised guidance range of $850 million to $950 million. In 2023, our hydro assets generated $460 million of adjusted EBITDA, and we continue to see strength in the first quarter of 2024. Energy production and ancillary service volumes remained largely consistent on an annual basis.

整體而言，2023 年是強勁的一年，自由現金流為 8.9 億美元，完全在我們修訂後的 8.5 億至 9.5 億美元指引範圍內。2023 年，我們的水力發電資產產生了 4.6 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，並且我們在 2024 年第一季繼續看到強勁勢頭。能源生產和輔助服務量年度基本保持一致。

This provides a long-term predictability and a floor to cash flows that is unique to this asset class. While water resource and energy production in 2023 was below 2022, we remain confident in the fleet's ability to realize its long-term average production levels.

這提供了該資產類別獨有的長期可預測性和現金流下限。儘管2023年的水資源和能源產量低於2022年，但我們仍然對船隊實現其長期平均生產水準的能力充滿信心。

Realized pricing in hydro continues to be strong, with a premium on spot electricity prices averaging roughly 26% over the last three years and with ancillary services earning an average of 50% of spot prices. Looking forward, we expect the segment to continue to receive a premium to spot pricing.

水電的實際定價持續保持強勁，過去三年現貨電價平均溢價約 26%，輔助服務平均賺取現貨電價的 50%。展望未來，我們預計該細分市場將繼續獲得現貨定價的溢價。

I'd like to remind everyone of our 2024 guidance that we announced in Q4 last year. Looking at 2024, we continue to expect that our results will be impacted by the evolution of the Alberta merchant market and the completion and integration of the Heartland Generation acquisition.

我想提醒大家注意我們去年第四季宣布的 2024 年指引。展望 2024 年，我們繼續預期我們的業績將受到艾伯塔省商業市場的演變以及 Heartland Generation 收購的完成和整合的影響。

For 2024, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $1.15 billion to $1.3 billion and free cash flow to be in the range of $450 million to $600 million or $1.46 to $1.94 per share. As we've noted, a number of factors are impacting our expected results for 2024. First, we expect Alberta merchant power prices to decline to a range of $75 to $95 per megawatt hour. This outlook is based on our fundamental market forecast, which includes the impact of significant new gas-fired supply additions.

到 2024 年，我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 11.5 億美元至 13 億美元之間，自由現金流將在 4.5 億美元至 6 億美元之間，即每股 1.46 美元至 1.94 美元之間。正如我們所指出的，許多因素正在影響我們 2024 年的預期結果。首先，我們預計艾伯塔省商業電價將下降至每兆瓦時 75 至 95 美元的範圍。這一前景基於我們的基本市場預測，其中包括大量新增燃氣供應的影響。

Second, we are coming into the year with a relatively high hedge position. Hedges have been executed both financially and through our commercial and industrial business. Third, our outlook includes the incremental adjusted EBITDA contribution for the year from Kent Hills, Garden Plain, White Rock, Horizon Hill, Northern Goldfield Solar, and the Mount Keith transmission project. And finally, we expect continuing solid performance from the energy marketing segment with a midpoint gross margin expectation of $120 million.

其次，今年我們的對沖部位相對較高。對沖是在財務上以及透過我們的商業和工業業務執行的。第三，我們的展望包括 Kent Hills、Garden Plain、White Rock、Horizo​​n Hill、Northern Goldfield Solar 和 Mount Keith 輸電項目今年調整後 EBITDA 的增量貢獻。最後，我們預計能源行銷部門將繼續保持穩健的業績，毛利率中位數預計為 1.2 億美元。

Over the past three years, we've deployed a significant amount of capital towards our growth program. Since 2021, we've allocated over $1.6 billion to our clean electricity growth plan with a larger portion of our growth program being funded through our free cash flow. As John mentioned earlier, we are nearing the end of this construction phase. And while we will pursue our growth plan further, we will not grow simply for the sake of growth in order to meet targets.

在過去的三年裡，我們為我們的成長計畫投入了大量資金。自 2021 年以來，我們已為清潔電力成長計畫分配了超過 16 億美元，其中成長計畫的很大一部分是透過自由現金流提供資金的。正如約翰之前提到的，我們的建設階段已接近尾聲。雖然我們將進一步追求我們的成長計劃，但我們不會僅僅為了成長而成長以實現目標。

Long-term shareholder value will drive our capital allocation decisions. And as John noted, we consider our common shares to be significantly undervalued at current levels. Accordingly, we're adopting an enhanced common share repurchase program for 2024 of up to $150 million, which is roughly double our historic purchase levels. We believe these repurchases will add value for our shareholders over the long term.

長期股東價值將推動我們的資本配置決策。正如約翰指出的那樣，我們認為我們的普通股在目前的水平上被嚴重低估。因此，我們將在 2024 年採用高達 1.5 億美元的強化普通股回購計劃，這大約是我們歷史購買水準的兩倍。我們相信，從長遠來看，這些回購將為我們的股東增加價值。

At the midpoint of our guidance for 2024, we expect to generate $525 million of free cash flow, which provides continued flexibility and the ability to take a balanced approach to capital allocation. We are well positioned to return capital to our shareholders while prudently pursuing growth opportunities and maintaining our balance sheet strength.

在我們 2024 年指導方針的中期，我們預計將產生 5.25 億美元的自由現金流，這提供了持續的靈活性以及採取平衡資本配置方法的能力。我們處於有利地位，可以向股東返還資本，同時審慎地尋求成長機會並維持我們的資產負債表實力。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to John.

然後，我會將電話轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Todd. As I look at our strategic priorities for 2024, we're focused on progressing the following key goals: first, improving leading and lagging safety performance while achieving strong fleet availability of 93.1%, progressing the equivalent of 400 megawatts of additional clean energy projects across Canada, the United States, and Australia; achieving COD on the White Rock wind, Horizon Hill Wind, and Mount Keith transmission projects next month; continuing the expansion of our development pipeline by adding 1,500 megawatts of development sites with a focus on renewables and storage; closing and integrating Heartland Generation; achieving EBITDA and free cash flow within our guidance ranges; proceeding with an enhanced common share repurchase program for 2024 of up to $150 million through our ongoing normal course issuer bid program; and advancing our ESG program.

謝謝，托德。在我審視2024 年的策略重點時，我們專注於實現以下關鍵目標：首先，提高領先和落後的安全績效，同時實現93.1% 的強大機隊可用性，在整個地區推進相當於400 兆瓦的額外清潔能源項目加拿大、美國和澳洲；下個月，White Rock 風電、Horizo​​n Hill Wind 和 Mount Keith 輸電計畫將實現 COD；繼續擴大我們的開發管道，增加 1,500 兆瓦的開發場地，並專注於再生能源和儲存；關閉並整合Heartland Generation；在我們的指導範圍內實現 EBITDA 和自由現金流；透過我們正在進行的正常發行人投標計劃，繼續實施 2024 年高達 1.5 億美元的強化普通股回購計劃；並推進我們的 ESG 計劃。

I'd like to close by highlighting what I think makes TransAlta a highly attractive investment and a great value opportunity. First, our cash flows are strong and underpinned by a high-quality and growing diversified portfolio. Our business is driven by our unique, reliable, and perpetual hydro portfolio, our contracted wind and solar portfolio, and our efficient gas portfolio, all of which are complemented by our world-class asset optimization and energy marketing capabilities.

最後，我想強調我認為 TransAlta 成為極具吸引力的投資和巨大價值機會的原因。首先，我們的現金流強勁，並以高品質且不斷增長的多元化投資組合為基礎。我們的業務由我們獨特、可靠和永久的水力投資組合、合約風能和太陽能投資組合以及高效的天然氣投資組合推動，所有這些都得到我們世界一流的資產優化和能源行銷能力的補充。

Both the acquisitions of TransAlta Renewables and Heartland Generation will further diversify and increase the contractiveness of our cash flows while Heartland's peaking assets will complement our Alberta strategy.

對 TransAlta Renewables 和 Heartland Generation 的收購將進一步實現多元化並增加我們現金流的收縮性，而 Heartland 的峰值資產將補充我們的艾伯塔省策略。

Second, we're a clean electricity leader with a focus on tangible greenhouse gas emissions reductions. We remain on track to achieve our ambitious CO2 emissions reduction target of 75% by 2026 from 2015 levels, and we also remain committed to net zero by 2045. We remind everyone that the Heartland acquisition will not affect either of these commitments.

其次，我們是清潔電力的領導者，專注於實際減少溫室氣體排放。我們仍有望實現到 2026 年二氧化碳排放量較 2015 年減少 75% 的雄心勃勃的目標，並且我們仍致力於在 2045 年實現淨零排放。我們提醒大家，收購 Heartland 不會影響這些承諾。

Third, as noted earlier, we have a diversified and growing development pipeline and a talented development team focused on realizing its value with appropriate returns.

第三，如前所述，我們擁有多元化且不斷成長的開發管道和才華橫溢的開發團隊，專注於以適當的回報實現其價值。

And fourth, our company has a sound financial foundation. Our balance sheet is strong, and we have ample liquidity to return cash flow to our shareholders through share repurchases, close the Heartland acquisition, and also pursue and deliver our clean electricity growth plan.

第四，我們公司有良好的財務基礎。我們的資產負債表強勁，擁有充足的流動性，可以透過股票回購向股東返還現金流、完成 Heartland 的收購，並追求並實現我們的清潔電力成長計畫。

Finally, we have our people. Our people are our greatest asset, and I want to thank all our employees and contractors for the outstanding work they have done to deliver another record year for TransAlta.

最後，我們有了我們的人民。我們的員工是我們最大的資產，我要感謝所有員工和承包商所做的出色工作，為 TransAlta 創造了另一個創紀錄的一年。

Thank you, and I'll turn the call back over to Chiara.

謝謝您，我會將電話轉回 Chiara。

Thank you, John. Ina, would you please open the call to questions for the analysts?

謝謝你，約翰。伊娜，請您開始向分析師提問好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Mark Jarvi, CIBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Mark Jarvi，CIBC 資本市場部。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions on the share repurchases. Maybe just first, is it exclusively just a function of the share price? Or what are the considerations went into this evolved messaging, which seems to prioritize buybacks relative to what you communicated at Investor Day in November?

謝謝。大家，早安。關於股票回購的幾個問題。也許首先，它只是股價的函數嗎？或者，與您在 11 月投資者日所傳達的訊息相比，這種演變的訊息似乎優先考慮回購，這是出於什麼考慮？

Yeah, Mark, good morning and thanks for the question. It is -- look, we review our capital allocation approach constantly and we look at the timing of having the growth coming into the company and the needs of the balance sheet as we allocate it in the capital allocation framework that we've adopted.

是的，馬克，早安，謝謝你的提問。看，我們不斷審查我們的資本配置方法，並在我們採用的資本配置框架中進行配置時，我們會考慮公司成長的時機以及資產負債表的需求。

But when we looked at where our trading price has gotten to at a level that was below $10, that certainly became a catalyst for us focusing on allocating more capital to doing share buybacks, supporting the price, which is clearly important to us and important in a context of, at least from our own perspective, seeing it being so undervalued in the marketplace.

但是，當我們看到我們的交易價格已達到 10 美元以下的水平時，這無疑成為我們專注於分配更多資本進行股票回購的催化劑，支撐價格，這對我們來說顯然很重要，對於至少從我們自己的角度來看，看到它在市場上被如此低估的背景。

Maybe I'll just add that over the last five years, we have pretty consistently bought back our shares, somewhere between the $50 million and $90 million marks of shares. In 2023, our average purchase price was around that $11. So we have been active in the market. We've said that previously that we'd be opportunistic on it, when we don't like where -- we don't think the share price is trading at a reasonable price and where the stock is trading today, clearly, we set the signal out there.

也許我要補充一點，在過去的五年裡，我們一直在回購我們的股票，回購金額在 5000 萬美元到 9000 萬美元之間。2023 年，我們的平均購買價格約為 11 美元。所以我們一直活躍在市場上。我們之前說過，當我們不喜歡在哪裡時，我們會投機取巧——我們認為股價沒有以合理的價格交易，而今天股票的交易價格顯然是我們設定的那裡有信號。

Understood. And so then if the share price rallied in the back of this or dips higher, like is there a level where you turn it off? Or should -- is the message to the market that likely you'll be somewhere close to the $150 million allocation this year?

明白了。那麼，如果股價在此背景下上漲或下跌，是否有一個水平可以讓你關閉它？或者應該——向市場傳達的訊息是，今年您的撥款可能接近 1.5 億美元？

I mean, we basically came out and signaled to the market that where we stand today, we're looking at, essentially, I think, Todd, you mentioned it in your presentation doubling the amount of share buybacks that we would normally do. I think the -- to Todd's point, the average price that we did share buybacks in last year was just a little bit over $11 a share. And given where we're trading today, that allocation to capital seems to be a reasonable amount when we look at it being carried through over the course of the year.

我的意思是，我們基本上向市場發出信號，表明我們今天的立場，我們正在考慮，基本上，我認為托德，你在演講中提到了將我們通常會進行的股票回購數量增加一倍。我認為，就托德的觀點而言，我們去年股票回購的平均價格僅為每股 11 美元多一點。考慮到我們今天的交易情況，當我們考慮全年的資本分配情況時，資本分配似乎是合理的。

I think consideration was the timing -- on growth, John.

我認為考慮的時機是成長，約翰。

Yeah.

是的。

Just where we're looking at our growth program for 2023, we're coming to the end of a construction phase. We're looking at a number of other projects to move forward in 2024. But I think the capital requirements in 2024 would be relatively light for those new projects.

就在我們制定 2023 年成長計畫時，建設階段即將結束。我們正在考慮在 2024 年推進一些其他項目。但我認為對於這些新項目來說，2024 年的資本要求相對較少。

And then just coming to the point, Todd, in terms of the $3.5 billion line in Investor Day, now you want to do an enhanced buyback here. How do you pay for everything? Is it just a function of timing, updated us in terms of financing options on the growth platform? How do you dovetail in this enhanced buyback activity, at least in the short term, we'll still try to deliver on $3.5 billion CapEx plans?

托德，說到重點，就投資者日的 35 億美元額度而言，現在您想在這裡加大回購力度。你如何支付一切費用？這是否只是時間的函數，更新了我們在成長平台上的融資選擇？您如何配合這種增強的回購活動，至少在短期內，我們仍將努力實現 35 億美元的資本支出計畫？

Yeah. I would just say that your comment there around timing, it is somewhat a timing aspect of capital uses was in 2024. As we move into 2025, we'll again reevaluate the balance between growth and share buybacks.

是的。我只想說，您關於時間的評論，在某種程度上是資本使用的時間方面，是在 2024 年。進入 2025 年，我們將再次重新評估成長與股票回購之間的平衡。

But I would say, Mark, our clean electricity growth plan is a five-year plan in terms of executing the actual growth. The company has considerable cash flow generation capability over the course of that time period. And as we've shown, I think, folks in our Investor Day that we're very confident in our ability to actually fund the growth.

但我想說，馬克，我們的清潔電力成長計畫在執行實際成長方面是一個五年計畫。該公司在此期間擁有相當大的現金流產生能力。我認為，正如我們在投資者日向人們展示的那樣，我們對實際為成長提供資金的能力非常有信心。

We're more focused on making sure we get the right projects and the right returns, to be honest, more than worried about the cash flow that we're generating to be able to meet the needs, certainly over the next period of time. So I think we feel good in our ability to take a balanced approach here.

老實說，我們更專注於確保正確的項目和正確的回報，而不是擔心我們產生的現金流是否能夠滿足需求，當然在接下來的一段時間內。因此，我認為我們對自己採取平衡方法的能力感到滿意。

Okay. I'll leave there for now. Thanks for the time.

好的。我暫時離開那裡。謝謝你的時間。

Thanks very much, Mark.

非常感謝，馬克。

Maurice Choy, RBC Capital Markets.

莫里斯‧蔡 (Maurice Choy)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Thanks and good morning. Maybe sticking with the share buybacks, bigger picture. I know, John, you mentioned that DCF per share is roughly 70. But as you look at the outer years, I'm sure where the power prices can change. So in your opinion, does the logical buybacks hold true even when you're using a projection for DCF per share beyond 2024? Is it sound to have such a program for not just one year but for years to come?

謝謝，早安。也許堅持股票回購，更大的前景。我知道，約翰，你提到每股 DCF 大約是 70。但當你看看未來幾年，我確信電價會發生什麼變化。因此，您認為，即使您使用 2024 年後的每股 DCF 預測，邏輯回購是否成立？不僅在一年內而且在未來幾年內實施這樣的計劃是否合理？

Yeah. Look, I would say it's absolutely. We've been positioning our portfolio, adding in contracted assets, building up our C&I business. We're not giving long-term projections here on free cash flow. But at $10 a share, I still see purchases being accretive to the shareholders.

是的。聽著，我想說，絕對是這樣。我們一直在定位我們的投資組合，增加合約資產，建立我們的工商業業務。我們不會在此給出有關自由現金流的長期預測。但以每股 10 美元的價格，我仍然認為收購對股東有利。

Yeah. I would agree with Todd -- Maurice, and good morning, by the way -- in terms of his response, it certainly is something that we would be looking at over time. And as Todd pointed out, we've traditionally done in that $50 to $80 million range. I think, Todd, over the course of the last number of years, we bought back almost 30 million shares, I think, is the actual number. So it's not -- it's certainly a greater focus. We're doubling up the expectations of what we're going to be deploying in terms of share buybacks. But right now, I think there's a great opportunity for us to do that.

是的。我同意托德（莫里斯）的觀點，順便說一句，早上好，就他的回應而言，這肯定是我們隨著時間的推移會關注的事情。正如托德指出的那樣，我們傳統上的投資範圍是 5000 到 8000 萬美元。托德，我認為，在過去的幾年裡，我們回購了近 3000 萬股股票，我認為這是實際數字。所以這不是——這肯定是一個更大的焦點。我們對股票回購方面的部署預期加倍。但現在，我認為我們有一個很好的機會做到這一點。

Maybe just a follow-up on that. Your free cash flow guidance of $1.27 to $1.96, which by the way, I'd like to focus on per share metrics here. Can you confirm that there's no buybacks in there? And given your comments, Todd, just now about where the shares are trading, any buybacks are immediately accretive to this guidance?

也許只是後續行動。您的自由現金流指引為 1.27 美元至 1.96 美元，順便說一句，我想在這裡重點關注每股指標。你能確認裡面沒有回購嗎？托德，考慮到您剛才關於股票交易情況的評論，任何回購都會立即增加這一指導嗎？

I missed the last top of that question, but the first half, you are correct. We have not included in the denominator or a change in share count in that free cash flow forecast.

我錯過了這個問題的最後一個頂部，但前半部分，你是對的。我們沒有將分母或股數變動納入自由現金流預測。

So to answer the second part of your question because I think I didn't hear it, Maurice, it would be accretive, correct, to the number -- to the free cash flow per share number, which is something that we're focused on, clearly, as an organization.

因此，回答你問題的第二部分，因為我想我沒有聽到，莫里斯，這對於每股自由現金流數字來說是正確的，這是我們關注的重點顯然，作為一個組織。

Great. Thank you. And maybe just to finish off. John, you mentioned that you continue to view investments in contracted clean energy assets as being the best interest of the company. And Todd, I think you also mentioned that you want to grow or to grow sake. As you look at the projects that make up your clean electricity growth plans, can you paint a picture as to what the average free cash flow yield is? And broadly speaking, in a very near term, what projects are at the higher end of that free cash flow yield range.

偉大的。謝謝。也許只是為了結束。約翰，您提到您仍然認為投資合約清潔能源資產是公司的最佳利益。托德，我想你也提到你想種植或種植清酒。當您查看構成清潔電力成長計畫的項目時，您能否描繪出平均自由現金流收益率是多少？從廣義上講，在短期內，哪些項目處於自由現金流收益率範圍的高端。

Maurice, we tend to look at it as a portfolio. So there would be projects that we would be developing that would have returns that would be lower on the sliding scale. We've talked to people about this when we look at it from the context of the returns on a risk-adjusted basis. So if you have a renewables project in Australia, for example, where we get a full return of on capital during the contracted period, having a high single-digit return for a project like that may make sense.

莫里斯，我們傾向於將其視為一個投資組合。因此，我們正在開發的一些項目的回報率在浮動比例上會較低。當我們從風險調整後的報酬的角度來看這個問題時，我們已經與人們討論過這個問題。因此，例如，如果您在澳洲有一個可再生能源項目，我們在合約期間內獲得全額資本回報，那麼這樣的項目獲得高個位數回報可能是有意義的。

If you're looking at a project, for example, like water charger, which would be a merchant battery project where we're relying on our optimization team here in Alberta to extract value from that facility through the skill set that they have, we would be looking at considerably higher returns well into the double-digit returns for a project like that.

例如，如果您正在考慮一個項目，例如充電器，這將是一個商業電池項目，我們依靠艾伯塔省的優化團隊透過他們擁有的技能從該設施中提取價值，我們對於這樣的項目，我們會看到相當高的回報，甚至達到兩位數的回報。

And then depending on the risk profile of the project and our ability to derisk it as we go forward, everything from the supply chain to the contracting approach that we're taking for the development it would lie in between. So it isn't a bright line singular approach that's being done. It is a point number that's being done. We tend to look at on a project-by-project basis, what are the attributes of the project and what is the skill set that we can bring to it from a value proposition going forward. So it really does vary.

然後，根據專案的風險狀況以及我們在前進過程中消除風險的能力，從供應鏈到我們為開發而採取的承包方法的一切都將介於兩者之間。因此，這並不是一種明確的單一方法。這是一個正在完成的點數。我們傾向於逐一研究項目的屬性是什麼，以及我們可以從未來的價值主張中為其帶來哪些技能。所以它確實有所不同。

I guess it's fair to say that any dollar that goes into gold projects, that dollar will compete with do share buybacks, (technical difficulty) depending where your ship rate is trading?

我想可以公平地說，任何進入黃金項目的美元都會與股票回購競爭（技術難度），這取決於您的船舶價格在哪裡交易？

I'm sorry, you broke up there, Maurice, said I couldn't catch that. Todd?

對不起，你在那裡分手了，莫里斯，說我聽不懂。托德？

New growth project (inaudible) -- It's part of the -- it is part of the mix, Maurice, when we look at the allocation of capital.

新的成長項目（聽不清楚）－莫里斯，當我們考慮資本配置時，它是混合項目的一部分。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) John Mould, TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）John Mould，TD Cowen。

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Maybe just continuing the development theme. I'm just wondering if you can give a little more color on what you're seeing as the greatest gating factor right now for finalizing development projects. Is it financing costs, equipment, project-specific challenges, like interconnect?

謝謝。大家早安。也許只是繼續發展主題。我只是想知道您是否可以對您所認為的目前完成開發項目的最大限制因素提供更多的說明。是融資成本、設備、專案特定的挑戰（例如互連）嗎？

And second part, just on Alberta specifically, are you finding the renewable development from your perspective anyways, in Alberta? I'm thinking about your -- within your company, just to be clear, is it all constrained until you get clarity on whatever power market changes might be getting announced next month or in the months ahead?

第二部分，特別是關於艾伯塔省，您是否從您的角度發現了艾伯塔省的再生能源發展？我正在考慮您的公司內部，需要明確的是，在您弄清楚下個月或未來幾個月可能宣布的電力市場變化之前，這一切是否都受到限制？

Yeah. Good morning, John. You kind of answered the first part of your question, I think, by reference to the second part of the question. As you might recall, when we talked about our growth pipeline and where it is, we went through a period where the projects that we had we're a bit more of a US flavor with a little bit of Australia thrown in. Right now, in terms of the relative readiness of projects to go forward, they have a bit more of an Alberta and Australia flavor going forward.

是的。早安，約翰。我認為，您透過參考問題的第二部分回答了問題的第一部分。您可能還記得，當我們談論我們的成長管道及其位置時，我們經歷了一段時期，我們擁有的項目更多的是美國風格，帶有一點澳大利亞風格。目前，就專案推進的相對準備情況而言，他們的未來更具阿爾伯塔省和澳洲風味。

So when we're looking at them from a gating perspective, we've done a ton of work in terms of derisking the projects and getting them to a place where we're increasingly comfortable with both the cost and even the revenue side of where we could go through. But I think having a bit more certainty from a market evolution perspective going forward is something that certainly is important to us.

因此，當我們從門控的角度來看待它們時，我們在降低專案風險並使它們達到我們對成本甚至收入方面都越來越滿意的水平方面做了大量工作。我們可以通過。但我認為，從市場演變的角度來看，擁有更多的確定性對我們來說肯定很重要。

It's important to the -- to our Board, and were close to getting some of that certainty or clarity from an Alberta market perspective over the course of the next probably 45 days or so as we begin to get some responses and direction on the renewables pause and what's going to come out of that.

這對我們的董事會來說很重要，並且在接下來的大約45 天左右的時間內，當我們開始得到有關可再生能源暫停的一些回應和方向時，我們即將從艾伯塔省市場的角度獲得一些確定性或清晰度以及由此產生什麼結果。

And the pathway from a market evolution perspective in many respects, which create opportunities for us as an organization given some of the gaps that are in the market. So I'd say those are probably the critical pieces.

從市場演變的角度來看，這條路徑在許多方面都為我們作為一個組織創造了機會，因為市場上存在一些差距。所以我想說這些可能是關鍵部分。

And then just touching on Australia briefly, and I'll see if Kerry wants to add anything as well. She's on the call today. We're, in many respects, tied to the timing and the process that our customers have as they go through their own process. And when they look at their capital needs and the evolution of the markets that are in that part of the world, we work with them, but we very much are tied to their investment decisions as we go forward.

然後簡單談談澳大利亞，我看看克里是否還想補充一些內容。她今天正在打電話。在許多方面，我們與客戶在經歷自己的流程時所擁有的時間和流程息息相關。當他們關注自己的資本需求以及該地區市場的演變時，我們會與他們合作，但隨著我們的前進，我們在很大程度上與他們的投資決策息息相關。

Kerry, I don't know if is there anything else to add to that or?

Kerry，我不知道還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only thing I would add is just to underscore the impact of regulatory uncertainty. You would have read in our release that we monetized 83% of the PTCs relating to Oklahoma. And when we look at the CR, the discussion document that was released last Friday, the ITC haven't been fully enacted, it really does impact our ability to attract investment to our Canadian jurisdictions as well as to Alberta. So I think I'd probably choose that as my number one challenge that we're faced with right now.

我唯一要補充的是強調監管不確定性的影響。您可能在我們的新聞稿中讀到，我們將 83% 與俄克拉荷馬州相關的 PTC 貨幣化。當我們查看上週五發布的 CR 討論文件時，ITC 尚未完全頒布，它確實影響了我們吸引投資到加拿大司法管轄區以及艾伯塔省的能力。所以我想我可能會選擇它作為我們現在面臨的首要挑戰。

I mean, stability is really critical, right, to making the long-term bets that we make when we make investments, John. So that's probably driver number one, over some of the other items that you itemized in your question.

我的意思是，對於我們在投資時所做的長期投資來說，穩定性確實至關重要，對吧，約翰。因此，這可能是第一個驅動因素，超過您在問題中逐項列出的其他一些項目。

Okay. No, that's all fair points on stability. And maybe touching on something related just on the carbon credit front, it looks like you did increase sales of carbon credits from our hydro portfolio in the fourth quarter. Can you maybe just provide us an update on how you're thinking about the carbon credit portfolio more broadly and the pace at which you're thinking about monetizing that?

好的。不，這都是關於穩定性的公平觀點。也許觸及碳信用額方面的相關問題，看起來您確實在第四季度增加了我們水電投資組合中碳信用額的銷售。您能否向我們提供最新信息，說明您如何更廣泛地考慮碳信用投資組合以及您考慮將其貨幣化的步伐？

Sure. And I can start and then Todd and Kerry can jump in as well. Look, it's quite a valuable asset that we have in the organization, and it grows. So we've got a pretty capable team that manages it very, very actively over time. And the kind of decisions that we make around it is, does it make sense to take it in here. Does it make sense to defer it for a year? We are seeing carbon pricing increasing. We are seeing the value of the credits over time increase even though the discount as against the face value, if I can call it that, sometimes increases over time.

當然。我可以開始，然後托德和克里也可以加入。看，這是我們組織中非常寶貴的資產，而且它還在持續成長中。因此，我們擁有一支非常有能力的團隊，隨著時間的推移，他們會非常非常積極地管理它。我們圍繞它做出的決定是，將其納入此處是否有意義。推遲一年有意義嗎？我們看到碳定價不斷上漲。我們看到積分的價值隨著時間的推移而增加，儘管相對於面值的折扣（如果我可以這樣稱呼的話）有時會隨著時間的推移而增加。

They are increasing. And then the trick is, at which point because of the proliferation of renewables. Does the value begin to wane, if I can put it that way from a carbon credit perspective? So it's a calculus of trying to, frankly, monetize or extract the greatest amount of value that we can from the portfolio of credits that we have. We're also looking at sheltering the carbon obligations that the company has as it goes forward and whether we can actually use some of those credits to shape products for customers that meet their needs going forward.

他們正在增加。關鍵在於，此時由於再生能源的擴散。如果我可以從碳信用的角度這麼說的話，價值是否開始減弱？因此，坦白說，這是一種試圖從我們擁有的信用投資組合中貨幣化或提取最大價值的計算。我們也正在考慮保護公司未來所承擔的碳義務，以及我們是否可以真正利用其中一些信用額度來為客戶打造滿足其未來需求的產品。

So it isn't an easy answer, but at least in the near term, when I think of the next year or next two years, there is significant value in picking the right timing, so to speak, in terms of the -- when we monetize. I don't know, Todd or Kerry, what do you say to that?

所以這不是一個簡單的答案，但至少在短期內，當我想到明年或未來兩年時，選擇正確的時機具有重要的價值，可以說，就什麼時候我們賺錢。我不知道托德或克里對此有何看法？

My current expectation is we would look to start reducing our inventory volumes of those emission credits over the next three to five years.

我目前的期望是，我們將在未來三到五年內開始減少這些排放信用的庫存量。

I totally agree.

我完全同意。

And the only thing I would add is that more to your holistic future carbon credit question, what we saw in the last Friday's discussion document was the introduction by the federal government is saying that they're not hard and fast in terms of emissions that they're introducing an ability going forward to use offsets and credits against your emissions. So I would say in that carbon pet will continue to be attractive in the short and midterm.

我唯一要補充的是，對於未來整體碳信用問題，我們在上週五的討論文件中看到的是，聯邦政府的介紹是，他們在排放方面並不嚴格和快速我們正在引入一種能力，可以使用抵銷和信用來抵消您的排放量。所以我想說，碳寵物在短期和中期將繼續具有吸引力。

Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. And then maybe I'll just slide one last one on Heartland. Can you just provide any updates on the transaction timing and how the competition process is expected to unfold?

好的。謝謝。這很有幫助。然後也許我會在 Heartland 上滑最後一張。您能否提供有關交易時間以及競爭過程預計如何展開的任何最新資訊？

Yes. Happy to. So we had three major approvals that we required from a regulatory perspective. The first one was from the British Columbia Utilities Commission. We've actually secured that approval. The second one is from the FERC in the United States, and we're awaiting that, I would say, imminently as we go forward. The final one and the most significant one would be how the review that's being undertaken by the Competition Bureau.

是的。高興。因此，從監管角度來看，我們獲得了所需的三項主要批准。第一個來自不列顛哥倫比亞省公用事業委員會。我們實際上已經獲得了批准。第二個來自美國聯邦能源監管委員會 (FERC)，我想說，我們正在等待，在我們前進的過程中迫在眉睫。最後一個也是最重要的一個是競爭局如何進行審查。

We are progressing with that. We've got great engagement, I would say, with the Bureau or team engages with them regulatory and giving them the kind of information they need to be able to properly assess the competitive impacts of the proposed merger in real time, given the evolution that we're expecting to see in the marketplace in the province of Alberta.

我們正在這方面取得進展。我想說，我們與監管局或團隊進行了深入的接觸，與他們進行監管，並為他們提供所需的信息，以便他們能夠實時正確評估擬議合併的競爭影響，因為我們期待在阿爾伯塔省的市場上看到。

So from a timing perspective, we remain optimistic that we'll be able to get through that process in an appropriate way and be in a position to close the transaction in the latter part of the first half of the year that would be about where we are right now, John.

因此，從時間角度來看，我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們將能夠以適當的方式完成這一過程，並能夠在今年上半年下半年完成交易，這將是我們的目標現在就是，約翰。

Okay, great. Those are my questions. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.

好的，太好了。這些都是我的問題。我會回到隊列中。謝謝。

Patrick Kenny, National Bank Financial.

派崔克肯尼，國家銀行金融部門。

Thank you. Good morning. Maybe just sticking with the regulatory frontier and specifically the Alberta government potentially creating this generator of last resort entity. How are you guys thinking about protecting the economics for your Alberta portfolio, including the Heartland Generation assets here, which I know you see a lot of value in the peaking capacity there? Just wondering how we should be thinking about the risk of a new government-based participant in the market?

謝謝。早安.也許只是堅持監管邊界，特別是艾伯塔省政府可能會創建這個最後手段的發電機實體。你們如何考慮保護艾伯塔省投資組合的經濟性，包括這裡的 Heartland Generation 資產，我知道你們認為那裡的尖峰容量有很大價值？只是想知道我們應該如何考慮市場中新的政府參與者的風險？

Good morning, Patrick. Look, when we think of the government potentially stepping in to create a company that would either require or create generation to ensure the reliability of the grid, I think that is very much an in extreme as I would say, kind of scenario, a scenario in which there is a genuine concern over the reliability of the marketplace.

早上好，派崔克。聽著，當我們想到政府可能介入創建一家公司，該公司需要或創造發電來確保電網的可靠性時，我認為這非常極端，正如我所說的，一種場景，一種場景其中對市場的可靠性存在真正的擔憂。

So it's not -- I would say when we look at our investment decisions and when we look at the optimization of our fleet going forward, it doesn't candidly feature in our assessment in the near term when we look at things going forward.

所以，我想說，當我們考慮我們的投資決策以及當我們考慮未來機隊的最佳化時，當我們考慮未來的事情時，它並沒有坦率地出現在我們的近期評估中。

I think there is a genuine concern on the part of the government of Alberta that if the CER is enacted in a way and is maintained in a way that results in the reliability of the grid in Alberta being challenged, then they see themselves as having an obligation to ensure that the grid is reliable. And we saw the consequences that could arise just last month when we had temperatures that were approaching minus 40%, and we were on the edge in terms of maintaining the reliability of the grid.

我認為艾伯塔省政府確實擔心，如果 CER 的頒布和維護方式會導致艾伯塔省電網的可靠性受到挑戰，那麼他們就會認為自己擁有確保電網可靠的義務。就在上個月，當氣溫接近負 40% 時，我們看到了可能出現的後果，而我們在維持電網可靠性方面處於優勢。

So it's really a last ditch, at least our view would be that it's really that last ditch insurance policy approach and the thinking of the government, at least based on our discussions with upstate.

所以這確實是最後的手段，至少我們的觀點是，這確實是最後的保險政策方法和政府的想法，至少基於我們與北部的討論。

Okay. And you touched on the CER, John. Maybe just delving into that a little bit more and thinking about this potential shift towards emissions limit versus intensity performance standards. Curious your thoughts on how these changes might impact your outlook for optimizing generation or overall margins for your fleet going forward as well?

好的。約翰，你談到了 CER。也許只是再深入研究一下，並思考這種向排放限制與強度績效標準的潛在轉變。想知道您對這些變化可能如何影響您的發電量優化前景或機隊未來整體利潤率的看法嗎？

Yeah. It -- so as you know, the federal government came up with a thought paper really on the CER. We're obviously responding and engaging with them as they go through the process. I think it caution is still a lot of piece for them. I don't know that folks should be viewing it as tangible accepted proposals from the federal government in terms of where they would evolve the CER. So I think there's still an open question as how they would proceed. But I would say in respect of what we've seen, directionally, I think it's positive for where we are.

是的。如你所知，聯邦政府確實針對 CER 提出了一份思想文件。顯然，我們會在他們完成整個過程時做出回應並與他們互動。我認為謹慎對他們來說仍然很重要。我不知道人們是否應該將其視為聯邦政府關於如何發展 CER 的切實可行的建議。所以我認為他們將如何進行仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。但我想說，就我們所看到的情況而言，從方向上看，我認為這對我們所處的位置是積極的。

I think, one, the emergency provisions that they had before, I think were unworkable, they're much, much better. Now in terms of letting the province touch on whatever generation it needs in a circumstance when there is an emergency, and they need to ensure reliability. I think in terms of unabated gas and to your point, moving specific performance factor, more to an envelope of emissions is the way I think of it. It's also positive. And I think our view, at least based on the work that we've done today would suggest that it provides more room certainly for peakers to be able to run to ensure, again, the reliability of the system going forward.

我認為，第一，他們以前的緊急規定是行不通的，但現在好多了。現在，讓省在緊急情況下接觸所需的任何一代，他們需要確保可靠性。我認為就未減少的氣體而言，就您的觀點而言，將特定性能因素更多地轉移到排放範圍是我的想法。這也是積極的。我認為，至少根據我們今天所做的工作，我們的觀點表明，它肯定為峰值提供了更多的運行空間，以再次確保系統未來的可靠性。

So directionally, I would say, helpful in terms of where we are, certainly in the context of the Heartland Generation transaction and our broader fleet. But Patrick, the Temple will be in the details, right, in terms of where we are. And we still have a lingering concern that although the signaled flexibility is helpful, we may actually need a bit more to ensure that the grid remains reliable in the province of Alberta and what they're proposing.

因此，我想說，從方向上來說，這對我們所處的位置很有幫助，尤其是在 Heartland Generation 交易和我們更廣泛的機隊的背景下。但是帕特里克，聖殿將關注細節，對吧，就我們所處的位置而言。我們仍然有一個揮之不去的擔憂，即儘管所暗示的靈活性是有幫助的，但我們實際上可能需要更多一點來確保艾伯塔省的電網以及他們所提議的內容保持可靠。

Okay. That's great, John. I appreciate your comments.

好的。太好了，約翰。我很欣賞你的評論。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone. That concludes our call for today. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the TransAlta Investor Relations team. Thank you and have a great day.

好的。嗯，謝謝大家。我們今天的呼籲到此結束。如果您還有任何其他問題，請隨時聯絡 TransAlta 投資者關係團隊。謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。