史丹利百得 (SWK) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the second quarter 2025 Stanley Black & Decker earnings conference call. My name is Shannon, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions). Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加史丹利百得 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫香農 (Shannon)，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指令）。請注意，本次會議正在錄製。

I will now turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Dennis Lange. Mr. Lange, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁丹尼斯·蘭格 (Dennis Lange)。朗格先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for Stanley Black & Decker's 2025 second quarter webcast. Here today, in addition to myself, is Don Allan, President and CEO; and Chris Nelson, COO, EVP and President, Tools & Outdoor; and Pat Hallinan, EVP and CFO. Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning and a supplemental presentation which we will refer to, are available on the IR section of our website.

謝謝你，香農。大家早安，感謝您收看史丹利百得 2025 年第二季網路廣播。今天，除了我之外，還有總裁兼執行長唐艾倫 (Don Allan)，營運長、執行副總裁兼 Tools & Outdoor 總裁 Chris Nelson，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Pat Hallinan。我們的收益報告（已於今天早上發布）和我們將參考的補充簡報可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。

A replay of this morning's webcast will also be available beginning at 11 AM today. This morning, Don, Chris and Pat will review our 2025 second quarter results and various other matters followed by a Q&A session. Consistent with prior webcast, we are going to be sticking with just one question per caller. And as we normally do, we will be making some forward-looking statements during the call based on our current views.

今天上午 11 點起也將提供今天上午網路直播的重播。今天上午，Don、Chris 和 Pat 將回顧我們 2025 年第二季的業績和其他各種事項，然後進行問答環節。與先前的網路廣播一致，我們將堅持每個呼叫者只提出一個問題。像往常一樣，我們將根據目前的觀點在電話會議中做出一些前瞻性的陳述。

Such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate, and as such, they involve risk and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that the actual results may materially differ from any forward-looking statements that we might make today. We direct you to the cautionary statements in the 8-K that we filed with our press release and in our most recent 34 Act filing.

此類陳述是基於對未來事件的假設，但這些假設可能並不準確，因此存在風險和不確定性。因此，實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。我們建議您參閱我們在新聞稿中提交的 8-K 表格以及我們最近的 34 項法案文件中的警告聲明。

Additionally, we may also reference non-GAAP financial measures during the call. For applicable reconciliations to the related GAAP financial measures and additional information, please refer to the appendix of the supplemental presentation and the corresponding press release, which are available on our website under the IR section.

此外，我們也可能在電話會議中參考非公認會計準則財務指標。有關相關 GAAP 財務指標的適用對帳及其他信息，請參閱補充報告的附錄和相應的新聞稿，這些可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。

I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Don Allan.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長唐艾倫 (Don Allan)。

Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. As all of you are aware, this will be my last earnings call for Stanley Black & Decker, given our recent announcement that Chris Nelson will become the CEO effective October 1. I want to begin by sincerely thanking our shareholders, employees and customers for your continued trust and support throughout my tenure.

謝謝你，丹尼斯，大家早安。大家知道，鑑於我們最近宣布克里斯·尼爾森 (Chris Nelson) 將於 10 月 1 日起出任首席執行官，這將是我最後一次為史丹利百得 (Stanley Black & Decker) 召開財報電話會議。首先，我要衷心感謝我們的股東、員工和客戶在我任職期間給予的持續信任和支持。

Your commitment has been foundational to our progress and success, especially over the last three-years. I believe now is the right moment to initiate this leadership transition, as I'm excited about how the team will build upon the significant company-wide transformation progress we have made since the summer of 2022. So in full alignment and with the support of our Board of Directors, I will move into the Executive Chair role, where I'll remain fully committed to supporting Chris and the company.

您的承諾是我們進步和成功的基礎，尤其是在過去三年。我相信現在是啟動領導層過渡的最佳時機，因為我對團隊如何在 2022 年夏季以來我們在整個公司範圍內取得的重大轉型進展的基礎上繼續前進感到興奮。因此，在董事會的全力支持下，我將擔任執行主席一職，並將繼續全力支持克里斯和公司。

I couldn't be more confident that Stanley Black & Decker has done a firm foundation for future growth and in excellent hands under Chris' leadership. As we move through the final year of our multiyear supply chain transformation, and I reflect on the progress over the past three-years, we have significantly advanced the vision we set forth during the spring of 2022. We stabilized, simplified and focused the organization.

我堅信，在克里斯的領導下，史丹利百得公司已經為未來的發展奠定了堅實的基礎，並且表現出色。隨著我們進入多年供應鏈轉型的最後一年，回顧過去三年的進展，我們發現我們已經顯著地推進了我們在 2022 年春季提出的願景。我們穩定、簡化並集中了組織。

As a result, we have and are continuing to improve our cost position, capitalize on our core strengths and prioritize investments designed to accelerate organic growth. We have assembled a strong management team with the right people in the right roles across the organization. Blending experience in our business and the industry with an infusion of new perspectives from experienced dynamic talent.

因此，我們已經並將繼續改善我們的成本狀況，利用我們的核心優勢，並優先考慮旨在加速有機成長的投資。我們已經組建了一支強大的管理團隊，在整個組織內有合適的人員擔任合適的職位。將我們業務和行業的經驗與經驗豐富的充滿活力的人才的新觀點融合在一起。

We streamlined our portfolio of iconic brands and businesses by divesting $2.6 billion of revenue. We have honed our focus on the core strengths of our portfolio of tools and outdoor and engineered fastening, which are both well positioned in very attractive industries that are forecasted to grow over the long term. Finally, we have significantly improved our cost structure and strengthened our balance sheet through solid execution against our operational priorities set in mid-2022.

我們剝離了 26 億美元的收入，精簡了我們的標誌性品牌和業務組合。我們專注於工具和戶外及工程緊固件產品組合的核心優勢，這兩個產品組合在極具吸引力的行業中佔據有利地位，預計長期內將實現成長。最後，我們透過嚴格執行 2022 年中期設定的營運重點，顯著改善了成本結構，並增強了資產負債表。

Our simplified and more nimble supply chain is enabling us to deliver improved profitability, better service for our customers and end users and sustainable market share gains with iconic brands such as DEWALT. And today, the capabilities we built to our supply chain transformation are supporting the company as we navigate tariffs with agility and speed.

我們簡化且更靈活的供應鏈使我們能夠提高獲利能力，為客戶和最終用戶提供更好的服務，並透過 DEWALT 等標誌性品牌實現可持續的市場份額成長。今天，我們在供應鏈轉型中建立的能力正在支持公司靈活、快速地應對關稅問題。

As we continue to return our company to sustainable organic growth, we are deeply committed to fostering a growth-oriented culture within the organization. By enhancing our strong foundation of operational excellence and building a sustainable productivity engine, we are enabling resource allocation to fund future growth.

隨著我們繼續使公司恢復可持續的有機成長，我們堅定地致力於在組織內部培育以成長為導向的文化。透過增強我們卓越營運的堅實基礎並建立可持續的生產力引擎，我們正在實現資源配置以資助未來的成長。

Our investments are designed to continue driving innovation within our categories, accelerate organic growth through targeted local market initiatives and deliver new value-added solutions to our customers. Stanley Black & Decker has long been an innovator and a growth-oriented company. We have the team to take this company forward.

我們的投資旨在繼續推動我們產品類別的創新，透過有針對性的本地市場措施加速有機成長，並為我們的客戶提供新的增值解決方案。史丹利百得 (Stanley Black & Decker) 一直是一家創新、注重成長的公司。我們擁有帶領公司前進的團隊。

I am thrilled to have the opportunity to continue supporting the company and to see this next chapter of growth unfold in the quarters ahead, while we close out the final phase of the supply chain transformation in 2025, continue to drive towards our margin goal of 35-plus percent and achieve our deleveraging goal in 2026, the additional modest streamlining of the existing businesses portfolio.

我很高興有機會繼續支持公司，並看到未來幾季的新一輪成長，同時我們將在 2025 年完成供應鏈轉型的最後階段，繼續努力實現 35% 以上的利潤率目標，並在 2026 年實現去槓桿目標，即對現有業務組合進行進一步適度精簡。

Now turning to our second quarter 2025 performance. Revenue was $3.9 billion, down 2% versus the previous year and down 3% organically. The quarter was impacted by a slow outdoor buying season and non-typical shipment disruptions related to our customers' reactions to tariffs, which contributed to a dynamic operating environment.

現在來談談我們 2025 年第二季的業績。營收為 39 億美元，較前一年下降 2%，有機下降 3%。本季受到戶外購買季節緩慢以及與客戶對關稅的反應相關的非典型發貨中斷的影響，這導致了動態的營運環境。

Against that backdrop, we delivered solid second quarter revenue with continued growth of our DEWALT brand supported by relatively resilient professional demand. Encouragingly, US tools end user demand was resilient and stayed relatively consistent on a total dollar basis following our price increases. First half organic revenue was down 1%, and we believe it will remain relatively flat in the second half as well.

在此背景下，我們在第二季度實現了穩健的收入，在相對有彈性的專業需求的支持下，我們的 DEWALT 品牌繼續成長。令人鼓舞的是，在我們提高價格後，美國工具最終用戶的需求具有彈性，並且在總美元基礎上保持相對穩定。上半年有機收入下降了 1%，我們相信下半年也將保持相對穩定。

The second quarter adjusted gross margin rate was 27.5%, down versus last year due to a three-point gross margin impact from tariffs and lower volume. This was partially offset by supply chain transformation efficiencies, and the partial impact on our initial round of price actions, which became effective within the second quarter.

第二季調整後的毛利率為 27.5%，較去年同期下降，原因是關稅和銷售下降對毛利率造成了三個百分點的影響。這部分被供應鏈轉型效率以及我們第一輪價格行動（在第二季生效）的部分影響所抵銷。

Despite market volatility, adjusted gross margin for the first half was 28.9%, just 20 basis points behind the prior year. As you will hear from the team today, the organization is remaining focused on executing our robust plan designed to mitigate tariffs. We plan to leverage supply chain moves and targeted pricing actions to improve our gross margin in the coming quarters.

儘管市場波動，上半年調整後的毛利率仍為 28.9%，僅比上年下降 20 個基點。正如您今天從團隊那裡聽到的那樣，該組織將繼續專注於執行旨在降低關稅的強有力計劃。我們計劃利用供應鏈措施和有針對性的定價行動來提高未來幾季的毛利率。

We believe Q2 to be the low point for gross margins, barring any new large changes to government policies. We view these initiatives in conjunction with capturing the remaining supply chain transformation savings as the primary drivers to return our adjusted gross margin trajectory toward our goal of 35-plus percent. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.1%, down 260 basis points versus the prior year, reflecting the gross margin change and our growth investments, which were partially offset by targeted cost control measures.

我們認為，除非政府政策出現新的重大變化，否則第二季將是毛利率的最低點。我們認為這些措施與獲取剩餘的供應鏈轉型節省相結合，是使我們的調整後毛利率軌跡回歸 35% 以上目標的主要驅動力。第二季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 8.1%，較上年下降 260 個基點，反映了毛利率變化和我們的成長投資，但有針對性的成本控制措施部分抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted earnings per share was $1.08, inclusive of a discrete tax benefit. Second quarter free cash flow was $135 million, a strong result considering the operational impact of new trade policies. Overall, a very solid quarter in a turbulent environment with significant credit to the global Stanley Black & Decker team, as together, we all continue to make meaningful progress on what is within our control. Thank you for your support.

調整後每股收益為 1.08 美元，其中包括單獨稅收優惠。第二季自由現金流為 1.35 億美元，考慮到新貿易政策的營運影響，這是一個強勁的結果。總體而言，在動蕩的環境中，這是一個非常穩健的季度，這要歸功於史丹利百得全球團隊的共同努力，因為我們大家齊心協力，在我們能夠控制的事情上繼續取得有意義的進展。感謝您的支持。

I will now pass it to Chris, who will review the business segment performance and provide more context on how we successfully execute our strategy in a volatile trade environment.

現在我將把它交給克里斯，他將審查業務部門的表現，並提供更多關於我們如何在動盪的貿易環境中成功執行策略的背景資訊。

Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. On behalf of the entire Stanley Black & Decker team, I would like to begin by expressing our appreciation to Don for his leadership and dedication to the company over the past 26-years. His deep connection with our customers and brands, coupled with his unwavering commitment to our global team, has been instrumental in positioning the company for lasting success.

謝謝你，唐，大家早安。我首先代表整個史丹利百得團隊，對唐在過去 26 年裡對公司的領導和奉獻表示感謝。他與我們的客戶和品牌的深厚聯繫，加上他對我們全球團隊的堅定承諾，對於公司取得持久成功起到了重要作用。

I'd also like to personally thank him for his partnership over the past two years and has helped preparing me for this moment. Looking ahead to October 1, I am honored and excited to become CEO of Stanley Black & Decker, an iconic American company with a proud heritage and a bright future. The opportunity to work with our teams around the world to unlock the tremendous potential of our brands and drive share gain in the marketplace is energizing.

我還要親自感謝他過去兩年來的合作，以及他幫助我為這一刻做好準備。展望 10 月 1 日，我很榮幸能夠成為史丹利百得公司的首席執行官，這是一家擁有悠久歷史和光明未來的標誌性美國公司。有機會與我們在世界各地的團隊合作，釋放我們品牌的巨大潛力並推動市場份額的成長，這令人振奮。

And I look forward to doing so in collaboration with our valued channel partners. Now turning to our second quarter operating performance. Our top priority continues to be serving our customers and accelerating initiatives to mitigate tariff-related headwinds, all while keeping our long-term financial objectives in sight. Beginning with tools & outdoor, Revenue for the quarter was approximately $3.5 billion, representing a 2% decline as compared to the second quarter of 2024.

我期待與我們尊貴的通路夥伴攜手合作。現在談談我們第二季的經營業績。我們的首要任務仍然是服務我們的客戶並加快舉措以減輕與關稅相關的不利因素，同時牢記我們的長期財務目標。從工具和戶外用品開始，本季營收約為 35 億美元，與 2024 年第二季相比下降了 2%。

Organic revenue decreased by 3% and price realization of 2% represents a partial quarter of benefit from our late April US price actions. Volume was down 5% due to a slow outdoor buying season and tariff-related shipment disruptions. We were encouraged to see continued top line expansion of the wall professional products as Pro demand remained relatively resilient.

有機收入下降了 3%，價格實現下降了 2%，這代表著我們 4 月底美國價格行動帶來的部分季度收益。由於戶外採購季節緩慢以及關稅相關的運輸中斷，銷售量下降了 5%。由於專業需求保持相對彈性，我們很高興看到牆面專業產品的營收持續擴張。

This marks over two-years of consistent growth from our powerhouse DEWALT brand, which year-to-date has grown in every product line and region. We clearly see the benefits from our prioritized innovation, marketing and activation investments. Our growth and share gain strategy is underpinned by accelerating DEWALT's success while we work to restore consistent share gain in Stanley & Craftsman.

這標誌著我們強大的 DEWALT 品牌連續兩年持續成長，今年迄今為止，該品牌在每個產品線和地區都實現了成長。我們清楚地看到了優先創新、行銷和激活投資帶來的好處。我們的成長和份額成長策略以加速 DEWALT 的成功為基礎，同時我們努力恢復 Stanley & Craftsman 的持續份額成長。

Adjusted segment margin was 8%, a 240-basis point decline as compared to the second quarter of last year. The change was attributable to the impact from tariffs, lower volume and investments in growth initiatives, partially offset by the supply chain transformation efficiencies, price and cost control. Shifting to performance by product line.

調整後分部利潤率為 8%，與去年第二季相比下降了 240 個基點。這項變化歸因於關稅、產量下降和成長計畫投資的影響，但被供應鏈轉型效率、價格和成本控制部分抵消。按產品線轉向性能。

Power tools organic revenue growth of 1% was driven by price, resilient Pro demand and solid performance in our key investment markets. Hand tools organic revenue decline of 5% was primarily attributable to tariff-related shipment disruptions in North America. Outdoor organic revenue declined 7% related to a slow buying season.

電動工具有機收入成長 1%，這得益於價格、強勁的專業需求以及我們主要投資市場的穩健表現。手動工具有機收入下降 5%，主要原因是北美與關稅相關的運輸中斷。由於購買季節淡季，戶外有機收入下降了 7%。

Demand has picked up in July, but our expectation is that 2025 will carry a modest decline near our minus 1% year-to-date performance. Now evaluating the tools and outdoor regions. In North America, organic revenue declined by 4%, driven by factors consistent with the segment's overall performance. Channel inventory remained in line with historical levels.

7 月需求有所回升，但我們預計 2025 年將出現小幅下降，接近今年迄今的負 1% 的水平。現在評估工具和戶外區域。在北美，有機收入下降了 4%，這是受與該部門整體表現一致的因素所致。通路庫存與歷史水準保持一致。

POS dollar trends in Tools remain stable, while outdoor POS was slow to start and improved throughout the quarter. Notably, following the recent price increases, we did not observe a shift in buying trends. which signals relatively healthy end demand. In Europe, organic revenue declined by 1%. Growth in the UK in key investment markets such as Central and Eastern Europe, helped offset softer market demand in Germany and Italy.

工具類 POS 銷售趨勢保持穩定，而戶外 POS 起步緩慢，但整個季度都有所改善。值得注意的是，在最近的價格上漲之後，我們並沒有觀察到購買趨勢的轉變。這顯示最終需求相對健康。在歐洲，有機收入下降了 1%。英國在中歐和東歐等主要投資市場的成長有助於抵消德國和義大利市場需求疲軟的影響。

The Rest of World delivered 1% organic growth, driven by Latin America, Australia, New Zealand and the Middle East, led by strong performance from our professional brands. Now let's transition to engineered fastening. On a reported basis, second quarter revenue was down 2% versus prior year and 1% on an organic basis, 1% of price realization and 2% of currency favorability was more than offset by 2% of volume declines and a 3% impact related to the previously disclosed product line transfer to the Tools & Outdoor segment.

世界其他地區實現了 1% 的有機成長，其中拉丁美洲、澳洲、紐西蘭和中東地區受到我們專業品牌強勁表現的推動。現在讓我們轉到工程緊固。據報道，第二季度收入較上年同期下降 2%，有機下降 1%，價格實現的 1% 和貨幣優惠的 2% 被銷量下降 2% 和先前披露的產品線轉移到工具和戶外部門相關的 3% 的影響所抵消。

The Automotive business experienced a mid-single-digit organic decline primarily due to reduced production schedules and restrained capital expenditures by OEMs. General industrial fasteners organic revenue declined high single digits. The aerospace business had another strong quarter with over 20% organic growth driven by strong performance in fasteners and fittings products.

汽車業務經歷了中等個位數的有機下滑，主要原因是生產計劃減少以及原始設備製造商的資本支出受到限制。通用工業緊固件有機收入下降了高個位數。航太業務本季再創佳績，在緊固件和配件產品強勁表現的推動下，有機成長超過 20%。

This business has achieved a new high of $400 million annualized run rate revenue with a solid multi-year backlog and growth outlook. The engineered fastening adjusted segment margin rate was 10.8% for the quarter. This is a decline from the previous year, largely due to softness in the higher-margin automotive fasteners.

該業務已實現 4 億美元的年化運行率收入新高，並擁有多年穩健的積壓訂單和成長前景。本季工程緊固件調整後的部門利潤率為 10.8%。與去年相比有所下降，主要是由於利潤率較高的汽車緊固件市場表現疲軟。

In summary, with focused execution, our team's accelerated cost control measures and adjustments to our supply chain to neutralize the impacts from tariffs as quickly as possible within the period. Implementation of our robust and flexible plans to mitigate tariffs is ongoing, as we navigate this dynamic operating environment.

綜上所述，透過重點執行，我們的團隊加快了成本控制措施和供應鏈調整，以盡快在期內抵消關稅的影響。在我們應對這一動態營運環境的同時，我們正在實施強而有力且靈活的降低關稅計劃。

We have entered the final innings of our multi-year supply chain transformation. Successfully completing the transformation this year remains a top priority and is fundamental to optimizing our cost structure, advancing customer-focused innovation and driving our growth initiatives. These efforts are all aimed towards delivering profitable organic growth and sustainable market share gains.

我們已進入多年供應鏈轉型的最後階段。成功完成今年的轉型仍然是我們的首要任務，對於優化我們的成本結構、推動以客戶為中心的創新和推動我們的成長計劃至關重要。所有這些努力都是為了實現盈利的有機成長和可持續的市場份額成長。

With respect to cost management, we are continuing to execute a comprehensive series of initiatives expected to deliver approximately $2 billion in pretax run rate cost savings with $1.5 billion attributable to improvements within our supply chain. We have clearly identified the principal sources of incremental savings and are making steady progress towards our full year 2025 target of $500 million in cost reductions.

在成本管理方面，我們將繼續實施一系列全面的舉措，預計將實現約 20 億美元的稅前運行成本節約，其中 15 億美元歸功於我們供應鏈的改進。我們已經明確了增量節約的主要來源，並正在穩步朝著 2025 年全年削減 5 億美元成本的目標邁進。

In the second quarter, we achieved approximately $150 million in pretax run rate cost savings, bringing our total savings to approximately $1.8 billion since the program's inception. We remain committed to strengthening our culture of operational excellence and building our sustainable productivity engine. These efforts are essential to further improving customer fill rates, funding growth investments and achieving our long-term goal of maintaining an adjusted gross margin of 35% or higher.

在第二季度，我們實現了約 1.5 億美元的稅前運行成本節約，自該計劃實施以來，我們的總節約額已達到約 18 億美元。我們將繼續致力於加強我們的卓越營運文化並建立我們的永續生產力引擎。這些努力對於進一步提高客戶滿足率、資助成長投資以及實現維持 35% 或更高的調整後毛利率的長期目標至關重要。

I will now take a moment to highlight a Pro-focused innovation we recently introduced. As a leader in total job site solutions, DEWALT is advancing its construction technology offerings of productivity solutions for trade contractors with MSUITE. MSUITE is a cloud-based management software which improves coordination between building information modeling, fabrication and field construction teams.

現在，我將花點時間重點介紹我們最近推出的一項以專業為重點的創新。作為整體工地解決方案的領導者，DEWALT 正在利用 MSUITE 為專業承包商提供生產力解決方案的建築技術產品。MSUITE 是一款基於雲端的管理軟體，可改善建築資訊模型、製造和現場施工團隊之間的協調。

MSuite helps users track, manage and share data throughout the entire life cycle of a construction project. We introduced the MSUITE Hangers automation tool in May as one of three product offerings on the platform. This software solution redefines how our targeted mechanical, electrical, plumbing and industrial contractors approach hanger layout and modeling.

MSuite 可協助使用者在建築專案的整個生命週期中追蹤、管理和分享資料。我們在 5 月推出了 MSUITE Hangers 自動化工具，這是該平台上的三種產品之一。該軟體解決方案重新定義了我們的目標機械、電氣、管道和工業承包商如何處理機庫佈局和建模。

It delivers significant efficiency improvements as they route building systems like pipes, ducks, conduits and cable trays. Early adopters of MSUITE Hanger software are already reporting remarkable gains in productivity. For instance, what traditionally took 10 manual steps and a disproportionate amount of time within the building information modeling project is now a single automated step.

在佈置管道、導管、線槽和電纜橋架等建築系統時，它可以顯著提高效率。MSUITE Hanger 軟體的早期採用者已經報告了生產力的顯著提高。例如，建築資訊模型專案中傳統上需要 10 個手動步驟和大量時間才能完成的操作現在只需一個自動化步驟即可完成。

This system simultaneously adjusts to building system model changes by adding or removing hangers and rapidly creates simple or complex configurations. Additionally, it can generate bills of material for fabrication, streamlining hanger installation. These functionalities enhance accuracy, save important coordination time in the field and reduce the costly risk of errors.

該系統透過添加或移除吊架同時適應建築系統模型的變化，並快速創建簡單或複雜的配置。此外，它還可以產生製造物料清單，簡化吊架安裝。這些功能提高了準確性，節省了現場的重要協調時間並降低了昂貴的錯誤風險。

This innovative tool enables the user to design their job using DEWALT hardware solutions, including DEWALT anchors and TOUGHWIRE. These kinds of comprehensive workflow solutions help DEWALT to win with the professional on commercial and industrial job sites. We are building a future where technology empowers end users on every job site to drive productivity with greater accuracy and confidence while also expanding the breadth and depth of our solutions.

這種創新工具使用戶能夠使用 DEWALT 硬體解決方案（包括 DEWALT 錨和 TOUGHWIRE）來設計他們的工作。這些全面的工作流程解決方案可幫助 DEWALT 在商業和工業工作場所贏得專業人士的青睞。我們正在建立這樣一個未來：科技能夠讓每個工作現場的最終用戶以更高的準確性和信心提高生產力，同時擴大我們解決方案的廣度和深度。

As we continue executing with an end user and customer-first mindset, we are focused on balancing the near-term needs of the business with preserving and delivering long-term growth, share gain and shareholder value. As we navigate this environment, we're taking the necessary measures to stay on our margin trajectory.

隨著我們繼續以最終用戶和客戶至上的理念執行，我們專注於平衡業務的短期需求與維持和實現長期成長、份額收益和股東價值。在這種環境下，我們正在採取必要措施來維持我們的利潤軌跡。

Ultimately, a key milestone of success is achieving 35% or greater adjusted gross margins. Consistent with this aim, we are prioritizing our efforts to successfully navigate tariffs. As we have previously shared, our tariff mitigation strategy is guided by four key principles. First, our primary commitment is to serve our customers and end users as we navigate this evolving environment.

最終，成功的關鍵里程碑是實現 35% 或更高的調整後毛利率。為了實現這一目標，我們優先努力成功應對關稅問題。正如我們之前所說，我們的關稅減免策略遵循四項關鍵原則。首先，我們的主要承諾是在這個不斷變化的環境中為我們的客戶和最終用戶提供服務。

We are collaborating with our customers to develop the optimal product assortment for our end users given the new landscape. Additionally, we are prioritizing high service levels and supply continuity. Secondly, we are accelerating supply chain adjustments to leverage our North American footprint and attain USMCA compliance rates that are in line with other manufacturing-based industries.

我們正在與客戶合作，根據新的情況為最終用戶開發最佳的產品組合。此外，我們優先考慮高服務水準和供應連續性。其次，我們正在加快供應鏈調整，以利用我們在北美的影響力，並達到與其他製造業相符的USMCA合規率。

Our current plan is expected to reduce our Chinese production for the US to less than 5% by the end of 2026. Third, we are taking a judicious approach to price actions, maintaining a long-term perspective as we make the adjustments necessary to protect our cash flow, EBITDA and margin structure while supporting investments for growth.

我們目前的計畫是，在2026年底，預計中國對美國的產量將減少到5%以下。第三，我們對價格行動採取審慎的態度，保持長遠眼光，進行必要的調整以保護我們的現金流、EBITDA 和利潤結構，同時支持成長投資。

Our April price increase was implemented on plan and began contributing during the second quarter. We are in the initial stages of customer discussions and intend to implement a second more modest increase early in the fourth quarter. Finally, we continue to proactively engage with the US administration to ensure our interests and those of our stakeholders are expressed and considered, as they work to achieve their trade-related goals.

我們四月份的價格上漲是按計劃實施的，並從第二季開始產生影響。我們正處於與客戶討論的初始階段，並打算在第四季度初實施第二次更為溫和的成長。最後，我們將繼續積極與美國政府合作，確保我們的利益和利害關係人的利益得到表達和考慮，以幫助他們實現與貿易相關的目標。

In summary, our disciplined approach positions us to address immediate challenges while building a strong foundation for future growth and returning to our targeted margin trajectory.

總而言之，我們嚴謹的方法使我們能夠應對眼前的挑戰，同時為未來的成長奠定堅實的基礎並恢復我們的目標利潤率軌跡。

I will now pass the call to Pat Hallinan to lay out our financial assumptions for tariffs in our current planning scenario.

我現在將電話轉給帕特·哈里南 (Pat Hallinan)，讓他闡述我們目前規劃方案中對關稅的財務假設。

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I would like to emphasize the importance of the strategic countermeasures that we are actively implementing. These coordinated efforts across our global teams are essential to protect our business, as we advance towards our long-term financial objectives, inclusive of growth and margin accretion.

謝謝你，克里斯，大家早安。我想強調我們正在積極實施的策略對策的重要性。隨著我們朝著包括成長和利潤成長在內的長期財務目標邁進，我們全球團隊的協調努力對於保護我們的業務至關重要。

We currently estimate the annualized gross tariff cost from policy actions is approximately $800 million, excluding mitigation actions. The factors that underpin our cost estimates incorporate the most recent policy changes announced in July and those expected to be enacted within the next few days. These assumptions include 30% incremental tariffs on goods from China, 30% on non-USMCA-compliant goods from Mexico, over 20% in aggregate on goods from the Rest of the World and 50% Section 232 metal tariffs.

我們目前估計，政策行動造成的年度總關稅成本約為 8 億美元（不包括緩解措施）。我們成本估算所依據的因素包括 7 月宣布的最新政策變更以及預計在未來幾天內實施的政策變更。這些假設包括對來自中國的商品徵收 30% 的增量關稅，對來自墨西哥的不符合 USMCA 規定的商品徵收 30% 的增量關稅，對來自世界其他地區的商品徵收總計超過 20% 的增量關稅，以及根據第 232 條徵收 50% 的金屬關稅。

However, the impact on our 2025 P&L is expected to be partially mitigated through a combination of ongoing targeted initiatives in addition to strategic pricing measures. Taken together, we currently estimate the net P&L impact for our 2025 to be approximately $0.65, reflecting the timing and costs required to implement mitigation strategies.

然而，透過持續的有針對性的措施以及策略性定價措施，預計對我們 2025 年損益表的影響將得到部分緩解。綜合起來，我們目前估計 2025 年的淨損益影響約為 0.65 美元，反映了實施緩解策略所需的時間和成本。

In this estimate, we have included costs to accelerate the planning and execution of our supply chain initiatives, as well as the anticipated increase in expenses required to manage current rare earth supply constraints. In the appendix, we have included an illustration that is consistent with prior disclosure of our US cost of goods sold by country of origin to assist in modeling sensitivities relative to these assumptions.

在這個估算中，我們包含了加速規劃和執行供應鏈計畫的成本，以及管理目前稀土供應限制所需的預期費用增加。在附錄中，我們提供了一個與先前揭露的按原產國劃分的美國商品銷售成本一致的說明，以幫助模擬與這些假設相關的敏感性。

Now to unpack our remaining planning assumptions. Our earnings outlook for the year includes GAAP earnings per share of $3.45, plus/minus $0.10. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be approximately $4.65. Pretax non-GAAP adjustments are estimated to range between $205 million and $250 million, primarily related to the supply chain transformation and other cost actions that will benefit SG&A.

現在來解開我們剩餘的規劃假設。我們對本年度獲利的預期包括：每股 3.45 美元（按美國通用會計準則計算），上下浮動 0.10 美元。調整後每股收益預計約為 4.65 美元。稅前非美國通用會計準則調整預計在 2.05 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間，主要與供應鏈轉型和其他有利於銷售、一般及行政管理 (SG&A) 的成本控制措施有關。

Looking ahead, our planning is based on the generally stable demand trends experienced throughout much of this year. These include relatively strong professional demand, continued relative softness in the DIY and outdoor product lines. And a certain degree of retailer disruptions associated with efforts to optimize sourcing and product assortment in response to tariffs.

展望未來，我們的規劃是基於今年大部分時間整體穩定的需求趨勢。其中包括相對強勁的專業需求，以及DIY和戶外產品線持續相對疲軟。為了因應關稅，零售商在優化採購和產品組合方面也遭遇了一定程度的中斷。

These are underpinned by our readiness to respond with agility and speed to changes in the operating and market backdrop. We anticipate 2025 total company sales to attract slightly as compared to 2024. year-over-Year organic revenue is expected to be in line with the total company, as price increases are offset by the aforementioned volume pressures.

這一切都源自於我們隨時準備靈活、快速地應對營運和市場背景的變化。我們預計 2025 年公司總銷售額將比 2024 年略有成長。由於價格上漲被上述銷售壓力所抵消，預計將與公司總收入同比有機收入持平。

Back half organic revenue is planned to be relatively flat, largely consistent with the performance we delivered in the first half. Our top line elasticity assumptions suggest an approximate one-for-one relationship between price and volume, meaning that each incremental point of price is expected to be offset by a corresponding point of volume decline.

預計下半年有機收入將相對持平，與上半年的業績基本一致。我們的頂線彈性假設表明價格和數量之間存在近似一對一的關係，這意味著價格的每個增量點預計都會被相應的數量下降點所抵消。

Currency is now projected to contribute a positive 1 percentage point, which will be offset by the first quarter comparable impact from the infrastructure divestiture. Organic revenue for the global tools & outdoor segment is projected to decline approximately one point. The engineered fastening segment is anticipated to achieve 1% organic growth, driven by sustained momentum in aerospace.

目前預計貨幣將貢獻正 1 個百分點，但這項貢獻將被第一季基礎設施剝離的可比影響所抵銷。預計全球工具和戶外用品部門的有機收入將下降約一個百分點。在航空航太業持續成長的推動下，工程緊固件領域預計將實現 1% 的有機成長。

Our supply chain transformation initiative maintains an incremental 2025 cost savings target of $500 million. Back half adjusted gross margin is assumed to deliver year-over-year expansion in both quarters, with the fourth quarter to show slightly stronger performance, taking into account our transformation and tariff mitigation actions.

我們的供應鏈轉型計畫維持了 2025 年增量成本節約目標 5 億美元。考慮到我們的轉型和關稅減免措施，預計下半年調整後的毛利率將在兩個季度實現同比增長，而第四季度的表現將略有增強。

Assuming that future tariff announcements lead to only modest adjustments and the US government makes meaningful progress on rare earth initiatives, we believe we can sustain this positive momentum and adjusted gross margin into 2026. We remain dedicated to investing in high-growth, high-return opportunities, and we'll reinvest over $100 million in 2025 to drive market activation, strengthen our brands and support commercial expansion.

假設未來的關稅公告僅會導致適度調整，並且美國政府在稀土計劃上取得有意義的進展，我們相信我們可以將這種積極勢頭和調整後的毛利率維持到 2026 年。我們將繼續致力於投資高成長、高回報的機會，並將在 2025 年再投資超過 1 億美元來推動市場活化、加強我們的品牌並支持商業擴張。

Full year adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to expand year-over-year on the strength of gross margin, supported by the cost actions that we are implementing. Other 2025 modeling assumptions, which are relatively similar to prior assumptions, are noted on the slide. In the near term, we anticipate that third quarter organic revenue will present a 1 percentage point decline, as we manage the impact of global tariff disruptions in conjunction with the subdued consumer DIY market environment.

在我們實施的成本行動的支持下，預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將因毛利率的強勁增長而同比增長。投影片中列出了其他 2025 年建模假設，這些假設與先前的假設相對相似。短期內，我們預計第三季有機收入將下降 1 個百分點，因為我們要應對全球關稅中斷以及低迷的消費者 DIY 市場環境帶來的影響。

For the third quarter, we expect adjusted earnings per share to represent approximately 25% of the full year adjusted EPS contribution factoring in a decline in organic revenue, balanced with a solid step forward in gross margins. With respect to cash flow and capital management, we remain committed to disciplined oversight of working capital and capital expenditures, targeting approximately $600 million in free cash flow in 2025.

對於第三季度，我們預計調整後每股盈餘將佔全年調整後每股盈餘貢獻的約 25%，其中有機收入有所下降，但毛利率卻穩定上升。在現金流和資本管理方面，我們將繼續致力於對營運資本和資本支出進行嚴格的監督，目標是到 2025 年實現約 6 億美元的自由現金流。

This objective is supported by disciplined inventory management with an emphasis on customer order fulfillment alongside prudent expenditure controls. Cash generation will be utilized to fund our dividend with the remainder intended to be used for debt repayment. Deleveraging continues to be a top priority, as we are committed to maintaining a strong and resilient balance sheet and working towards achieving less than or equal to 2.5 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

這一目標透過嚴格的庫存管理來實現，重點是履行客戶訂單以及審慎的支出控制。產生的現金將用於支付股息，剩餘部分將用於償還債務。去槓桿仍然是重中之重，因為我們致力於維持強勁而有韌性的資產負債表，並努力實現淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比小於或等於 2.5 倍。

Our plan to achieve this outcome includes using excess free cash flow and an assumed $500 million to $1 billion in proceeds from portfolio pruning for further debt repayment. To conclude, we are pleased with the performance we have delivered in the first half of the year. Responding decisively to external challenges through targeted operational and supply chain adjustments, underscoring our unwavering commitment to meeting the needs of our end users and customers.

我們實現這一結果的計劃包括利用多餘的自由現金流和假定的 5 億至 10 億美元的投資組合修剪收益來進一步償還債務。總而言之，我們對上半年的業績感到滿意。透過有針對性的營運和供應鏈調整果斷應對外部挑戰，強調我們堅定不移地致力於滿足最終用戶和客戶的需求。

The organization has demonstrated exceptional agility in this environment. The organization's efforts have put us in a position to quickly restore profitability while taking the measures to position Stanley Black & Decker for sustained growth, margin expansion and long-term value creation.

該組織在這種環境下表現出了非凡的敏捷性。該組織的努力使我們能夠迅速恢復獲利能力，同時採取措施使史丹利百得實現持續成長、利潤率擴大和長期價值創造。

Thank you, and I will now return the call to Don.

謝謝，我現在就回電給唐。

Thank you, Pat. I am grateful to have had the opportunity to serve as CEO of Stanley Black & Decker and work alongside an extraordinarily talented and resilient team. As I have said many times, Stanley Black & Decker is built on the strength of our people, iconic brands and a powerful innovation engine. These foundational attributes transcend external market conditions. And I am confident that these traits are what position Stanley Black & Jacke to thrive well into the future and generate sustainable long-term growth and value creation.

謝謝你，帕特。我很榮幸有機會擔任史丹利百得公司的首席執行官，並與一支才華橫溢、堅韌不拔的團隊一起工作。正如我多次說過的，史丹利百得是建立在員工實力、標誌性品牌和強大的創新引擎之上的。這些基礎屬性超越了外部市場條件。我相信，這些特質將使 Stanley Black & Jacke 在未來蓬勃發展，並實現可持續的長期成長和價值創造。

We are now ready for Q&A, Dennis.

我們現在準備好進行問答了，丹尼斯。

Thanks, Don. Shannon, we can now start Q&A, please. Thank you.

謝謝，唐。香農，我們現在可以開始問答了。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions). Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

（操作員指令）。巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

I just wanted to say congratulations, Chris, and thanks, Don, for all the hard work and wish you well in the Board transition role.

我只想對克里斯表示祝賀，並感謝唐的辛勤工作，並祝你在董事會過渡期間一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maybe just my question would be around the gross margin outlook. Just trying to understand, I heard Pat say gross margins are up year-on-year, both third and fourth quarter. Looks like you're embedding organic sales growth year-on-year in Q4 and there should be some good volume leverage perhaps there. So just trying to understand what's the kind of Q4 or exit gross margin that you're embedding for this year?

也許我的問題只是關於毛利率前景。只是想了解一下，我聽到帕特說第三季和第四季的毛利率都比去年同期都有所上升。看起來您在第四季度實現了同比有機銷售成長，並且可能存在一些良好的銷售槓桿。所以只是想了解一下您今年嵌入的第四季或退出毛利率是多少？

And as you think into next year, I realize that the cost productivity program, the $2 billion number is largely in the run rate going into next year. So maybe any early thoughts on further gross margin expansion drivers, as I think you mentioned gross margin should rise again in the next year?

當你想到明年時，我意識到成本生產力計劃，20 億美元的數字基本上是明年的運行率。那麼，也許您對進一步擴大毛利率的驅動因素有什麼初步想法，因為我認為您提到毛利率明年應該會再次上升？

Yes. Julian, it's Pat. Yes, we're expecting each third quarter and the fourth quarter year-over-year gross margin expansion. I'd say in the third quarter, in the 1.5 percentage to 2 percentage point range, and in the fourth quarter, similarly maybe even getting above the 200 percentage point range. We would expect this fourth quarter of '25 probably in that 33% to 34% range.

是的。朱利安，我是帕特。是的，我們預計第三季和第四季的毛利率將較去年同期擴大。我認為第三季的增幅將在 1.5 個百分點到 2 個百分點之間，而第四季的增幅可能甚至會超過 200 個百分點。我們預計 25 年第四季的成長率可能在 33% 至 34% 之間。

And I think it speaks to the hard work that the teams are pursuing both on the mitigation and pricing fronts. We're very committed to our 35% gross margin journey. And while tariffs have definitely given us something to manage, I think the team has been very, very active in attacking it. And the back half gross margin result is a result of the mitigation and the pricing work.

我認為這反映了團隊在緩解和定價方面所付出的艱苦努力。我們非常致力於實現 35% 的毛利率目標。雖然關稅確實為我們帶來了一些需要管理的問題，但我認為我們的團隊一直非常積極地應對這個問題。後半部的毛利率結果是緩解和定價工作的結果。

As we look to next year, I don't know that I want to pin myself down on quarter-by-quarter guidance for '26 yet. But we very much expect to maintain that 35-plus percent gross margin journey. And we would expect in the back half of next year to be kind of on that journey. I'd say that tariffs, probably from a timing perspective, created a 9-months to 12-month delay in getting to 35%.

展望明年，我還不確定是否要確定 26 年的逐季指引。但我們非常希望維持 35% 以上的毛利率。我們預計明年下半年我們就能踏上這趟旅程。我想說，從時間角度來看，關稅導致達到 35% 的時間延遲了 9 到 12 個月。

But I think you should expect the back half of next year to be in the mid-30s and at or approaching that 35% range by the end of the year. I think the front part of the year, we'll have to wait until we get further along this year and into next year because the front part of next year will be the unpacking of some of the FIFO-LIFO dynamics associated with tariffs.

但我認為，預計明年下半年的成長率將在 35% 左右，到年底將達到或接近 35% 左右。我認為，我們必須等到今年和明年進一步發展才能確定今年上半年的情況，因為明年上半年將解開與關稅相關的一些先進先出-後進先出動態。

So I'm not going to pin myself in on the very front part of next year yet because we're still waiting to see how tariffs play out the back part of this year. I would say from volume, I mean, yes, we're up -- well, from sales were up a the fourth quarter of this year or thereabouts. Volume will be down, price will be up. There's nothing going on in the gross margin that is really a volume leverage dynamic.

因此，我暫時不會將自己鎖定在明年年初，因為我們仍在等待觀察關稅在今年下半年將如何發揮作用。我想說，從銷量來看，是的，我們的銷量上升了——嗯，從今年第四季左右的銷售額來看，我們的銷量上升了。交易量將會下降，價格將會上升。毛利率中並沒有什麼真正由數量槓桿動態決定的因素。

It is all about mitigation and pricing and the continuation of our transformation program. We do still expect to deliver the $500 million of gross savings in our transformation program.

這一切都與緩解和定價以及我們轉型計劃的延續有關。我們仍期望透過轉型計畫實現 5 億美元的總節約。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。

Congrats, Chris and Don, wishing you the best, great working with you.

恭喜克里斯和唐，祝你們一切順利，很高興與你們合作。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

I wanted to kind of unpack a couple of elements of the updated guidance and with some of the moving parts here. First, if you could kind of hit on the 2Q upside that we saw, what are the offsets that didn't allow that upside on 2Q to fully translate to the full year guide? And secondly, how should we think about the $0.65 headwind as it relates to 2026? In other words, do you expect to recover all of that through various actions or part of it? If you can kind of walk through those two elements?

我想解釋一下更新後的指南中的幾個要素以及其中的一些活動部分。首先，如果您能大致了解我們看到的第二季上行趨勢，那麼有哪些因素導致第二季的上行趨勢無法完全轉化為全年指引？其次，我們該如何看待 2026 年 0.65 美元的逆風？換句話說，您是否希望透過各種行動收回全部或部分資金？能詳細解釋一下這兩個元素嗎？

Mike, it's Pat again. I would say for the quarter in the simplest of terms, the beat versus our adjusted outlook and consensus was really about $0.15 operational. And the rest was just tax timing. We had always expected in our 15% full year tax rate to have some discrete items predominantly an IRS settlement. And about half of that was solidified in the second quarter much earlier than we had ever anticipated in our outlook.

麥克，又是帕特。我想用最簡單的術語來說，對於本季而言，超出我們調整後的展望和共識的實際營運利潤約為 0.15 美元。剩下的只是納稅時機。我們一直預計，在 15% 的全年稅率中，會有一些單獨的項目，主要是國稅局結算。其中約一半的增幅在第二季得到鞏固，比我們預期的要早得多。

So $0.15 operational, the rest, tax timing. In that operational, some of it was the timing of tariff expense throughout the year. I would say about $0.10 of it was we had less tariff expense in the quarter just caught up in the FIFO-LIFO calculations. It doesn't change our outlook of tariff expense for the year. So really, in the quarter, you had some FX favorability.

因此，0.15 美元為營運費用，其餘為稅收時間。在該營運中，部分內容是全年關稅支出的時間安排。我想說其中大約 0.10 美元是因為我們本季度的關稅支出減少了，剛好趕上了先進先出-後進先出計算。這不會改變我們對今年關稅支出的展望。因此，實際上，在本季度，外匯市場確實存在一些有利因素。

And I'd say there -- all else being equal, you might expect that FX favorability momentum to carry through the back half. And certainly, with the US dollar strengthening a little bit, some of that might dissipate. But really, that's offset by some mitigation expense that we have in our SG&A. And so I'd say the operating dynamic is we had some upside in the quarter.

我想說的是——在其他條件相同的情況下，你可能會預期外匯有利勢頭將持續到下半年。當然，隨著美元略微走強，部分這種影響可能會消失。但實際上，這被我們的銷售、一般和行政費用中的一些緩解費用所抵消。因此我想說，本季我們的經營動態有一些上升空間。

Most of it was just tariff expense timing. That balances out the back part of the year, and then some incremental mitigation expense kind of consumes a small amount of FX upside for the year. I'd say most of what has changed in our forecast is we're trying to be proactive and anticipate a bit as best we can, where tariffs are going.

其中大部分只是關稅支出時間問題。這會平衡下半年的支出，然後一些增量緩解費用會消耗掉今年少量的外匯收益。我想說，我們預測中發生的大部分變化是，我們試圖採取積極主動的態度，並盡可能預測關稅的走向。

And so when we look at tariffs relative to where we were in the middle of the second quarter, we're expecting the countries that currently have received letters to be exposed to the tariffs in those letters. The rest of the world to go roughly from 10 points to 20 points, some of the timing around rare earth will have us paying a marginal -- a bit more of China tariffs for a while.

因此，當我們查看相對於第二季度中期水平的關稅時，我們預計目前已收到信函的國家將受到信函中提到的關稅影響。世界其他地區的關稅幅度大約為 10 到 20 個百分點，圍繞著稀土的一些時間將使我們在一段時間內支付稍多一點的中國關稅。

That's about in the year reported about $65 million of tariff expense, and we'll have a modest amount of incremental pricing that helps offset that. And that is what drives basically the $0.65 versus our original full year outlook is just an update to tariff expenditure and mitigation and pricing. I think as we look towards next year, Mike, we expect between mitigation and pricing to largely offset what we see as $800 million of run rate tariff expense.

這相當於今年報告的約 6500 萬美元的關稅支出，我們將採取適度的增量定價來抵消這筆支出。這就是基本上推動 0.65 美元與我們最初的全年預期相比只是對關稅支出和緩解和定價的更新。麥克，我認為，展望明年，我們預計緩解措施和定價將在很大程度上抵消我們所看到的 8 億美元的運行費率關稅費用。

And so what's going to flow through next year, obviously, in the front part of the year is some of the roll-off of the tariff expense that will be on our balance sheet. So the front half might be a bit noisy. But by the time we get to the back half of the year, we should be accreting margins, as I answered with Julian, in the mid-30s and are shooting for that 35% in the third or the fourth quarter, we'll see how quickly we get there. And we should be largely mitigated out of China. We should be down to 5% or less China by the end of next year.

因此，顯然，明年上半年將會出現一些關稅支出，這些支出將出現在我們的資產負債表上。所以前半部可能會有點吵。但到今年下半年，我們的利潤率應該會增加，正如我和朱利安回答的那樣，在 35% 左右，併計劃在第三季或第四季達到 35%，我們將看看我們能多快達到這個目標。我們應該在很大程度上擺脫對中國的依賴。到明年年底，中國的比例應該會降至5%或更低。

Tim Wojs, Baird.

提姆·沃伊斯，貝爾德。

And I'll echo the same comments on Chris and Don, thanks for everything, and Chris, good luck. I guess maybe just on pricing. Just kind of curious if you could elaborate a little bit how the pricing increases are tracking versus your expectations? I think the 2% in the tool segment might be a little bit below what some are looking for. And I think that should accelerate into the second half.

我會對克里斯和唐發表同樣的評論，感謝你們所做的一切，祝克里斯好運。我想也許只是關於定價。我只是有點好奇，您是否可以稍微詳細說明一下價格上漲情況與您的預期相比如何？我認為工具部分的 2% 可能略低於某些人的期望。我認為下半年這一趨勢將會加速。

So just maybe a little color on how the price is being accepted, if there's any kind of elasticity that you point out and how to think about pricing in the second half?

那麼，也許可以稍微解釋一下價格的接受程度，是否存在任何您指出的彈性，以及如何考慮下半年的定價？

Yes, Tim, this is Chris. So from a pricing perspective, as we talked about last time, our price increase went in on schedule and has moved through and been realized in line with our expectations and in the timing that we expected. So we feel good about where we are. And importantly, we feel good about what we've seen from competitive dynamics and how it's playing out not only on the shelf.

是的，提姆，這是克里斯。因此，從定價的角度來看，正如我們上次討論的那樣，我們的價格上漲是按計劃進行的，並且已經按照我們的預期和預期的時間進行了實現。因此我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。重要的是，我們對所看到的競爭動態以及它不僅在貨架上的表現感到滿意。

But then as we look at our demand patterns after that price increase, we haven't really seen a significant change or really any change in the demand patterns or any new buying behaviors. As it relates to what you asked about elasticity, as Pat referenced in his comments, we are seeing about a one-for-one offset price for volume trade-off, which is kind of what we thought and is in line with our expectations.

但當我們觀察價格上漲後的需求模式時，我們並沒有看到需求模式或任何新購買行為的顯著變化或任何變化。至於您詢問的彈性問題，正如 Pat 在他的評論中提到的那樣，我們看到的是一對一的抵消價格與數量權衡，這正是我們的想法，也符合我們的預期。

So the timing is on, we feel like the impact is on, the competitive dynamics seem solid. And then as we think about moving forward, the combination of changes in tariff policy with us being able to firm up more of what we see as our well-planned-out mitigation actions. Our next round of price increase, which will go in, and we're in discussions right now to get it moving along with our customers, will go in at the beginning of Q4, is going to be much more modest.

所以時機已經成熟，我們感覺影響力已經顯現，競爭態勢似乎穩固。然後，當我們考慮向前邁進時，關稅政策的變化與我們能夠進一步鞏固我們所認為的精心策劃的緩解行動相結合。我們的下一輪價格上漲將在第四季初進行，我們目前正在與客戶進行討論，以便推動價格上漲，而且漲幅會小得多。

So it's kind of -- you think about it as roughly half of what the first price increase was. And we're going to be able to do so in a way that we believe will continue along those same dynamics. And we have seen -- if we think about just what we've seen since the increase has gone through, we've seen roughly the same POS, and it's been fairly stable as what we've reported before.

所以，你可以認為它大約是第一次漲價的一半。我們相信，我們能夠以一種能夠延續同樣動力的方式做到這一點。我們已經看到——如果我們思考一下自增長以來我們看到的情況，我們看到的 POS 大致相同，並且與我們之前報告的一樣相當穩定。

And in the quarter, it was down flat to down slight low single digits with a little bit of acceleration coming out of the quarter in the beginning of Q3 as well. So the pricing plan is solid, and we're seeing it executed in the field as we would have expected and as we articulated last time we talked in -- at the end of last quarter.

本季，銷售額呈現持平或略低個位數下降趨勢，第三季初也出現小幅加速。因此，定價計劃是可靠的，我們看到它在現場執行的情況正如我們預期的那樣，也正如我們上次討論時（上個季度末）所闡明的那樣。

And Tim, the only thing I'd add to that is, you'll see the full run rate, obviously over the back part of the year. And you're probably going to be seeing in the T&O business the high single digits range of a price increase. And as Chris was saying, a like offset in the volume netting to flattish total organic revenue performance for the back half.

提姆，我唯一要補充的是，你會看到全部運行率，顯然是在今年下半年。您可能會看到 T&O 業務的價格上漲幅度高達個位數。正如克里斯所說，銷售淨額的抵銷使下半年的總有機收入表現趨於平穩。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Don, it's quite a run there, so congratulations. I hope you enjoy some retirement. And Chris, congrats on getting the big seats.

唐，你取得了相當不錯的成績，恭喜你。我希望你能享受退休生活。克里斯，恭喜你獲得重要席位。

Thanks, Nigel.

謝謝，奈傑爾。

On the pricing, I just want to make sure, are those actions being at this point been actioned and announced to the channel or is that still to come through the quarter? And then maybe just a bit more detail on the $800 million of tariffs. I mean, obviously, it changes by the day more or less. But would the copper tariffs be part of that or is it because it hasn't been confirmed if not, I mean just to talk about that.

關於定價，我只是想確認一下，這些行動是否已經採取行動並已向管道公佈，還是還需要在本季公佈？然後也許可以更詳細地介紹一下 8 億美元關稅。我的意思是，顯然它每天都在或多或少地改變。但是銅關稅是否是其中的一部分，或者是因為尚未確認，如果不是，我只是談論這個。

And then I think the other big moving piece right now in that math is the USMCA compliance in Mexico. So just maybe just bring us up to speed in terms of how that's trending.

然後我認為目前這個數學問題中另一個重要的變化因素是墨西哥對 USMCA 的遵守情況。因此也許只是讓我們來了解一下這個趨勢。

I'll start and tackle the price in the USMCA, Nigel. So the price -- the first round of price is fully in. It is in. It's on the shelves, it's been passed through. And we've been tracking the impact for a number of weeks now as that has gone in. And what I was referring to is that we are -- for the round two, we are currently -- we have notified our channel partners.

我將開始解決 USMCA 的價格問題，奈傑爾。因此，第一輪價格已經完全確定。它在裡面。它就在架子上，已經被傳閱過了。我們已經連續數週追蹤其影響。我指的是，對於第二輪，我們目前已經通知了我們的通路合作夥伴。

And we're in discussion about what we would see as an implementation of that second round of pricing, which once again would be more modest and about half of what we saw for the first round is going in at the beginning of Q4. As it relates to USMCA, we have -- we've been doing a lot of work there, as you might imagine.

我們正在討論第二輪定價的實施方式，第二輪定價將更加溫和，第一輪定價的一半左右將在第四季度初實施。就 USMCA 而言，正如您可能想像的那樣，我們已經在那裡做了很多工作。

And we do believe that we have plans and programs in place that will allow us over time to get more towards what we would say is the average type of USMCA qualified for a like industrial manufacturing company. And those programs, obviously, range in time from things that are easy to do with changes in bills of material to longer lead time with changes of component suppliers and localization of the supply chain.

我們確實相信，我們已經制定了計劃和方案，這些計劃和方案將使我們隨著時間的推移更加接近我們所說的適合工業製造公司的平均類型的 USMCA 資格。顯然，這些計劃的時間跨度從物料清單變更等簡單事項到零件供應商變更和供應鏈本地化等更長的交付週期。

But we see nothing structurally that would prevent us from over time being at what we'd see is that kind of more industry average level.

但從結構上看，我們認為沒有任何因素會阻止我們隨著時間的推移達到行業平均水平。

Yes. And Nigel, on the tariffs, yes, it does change with frequency, but we've kind of been anchored to around three numbers, now 800 being the third and the current run rate. It was as high as $1.7 billion annualized run rate back in early April when China was at 145-plus. Then in the middle of the quarter when there was relief, the 90-day relief period, it went down to $600 million.

是的。奈傑爾，關於關稅，是的，它確實會隨著頻率而變化，但我們已經固定在三個數字左右，現在 800 是第三個數字，也是當前的運行率。4月初，當中國利率達到145以上時，其年化運行率曾高達17億美元。然後在本季中期，當有救濟措施時，即 90 天的救濟期，金額下降到 6 億美元。

Our best estimate of where things are likely to go inclusive of us paying a bit more in China tariffs as some of the rare earth timing works itself out is around $800 million annualized. The change from $600 million to $800 million is mostly our best estimate of us paying marginally a bit more in China tariffs as both of our governments work through rare earth licensing.

我們對情況可能走向的最佳估計是，隨著稀土時機的成熟，我們將支付更多中國關稅，年化損失約 8 億美元。從 6 億美元到 8 億美元的變化主要是我們最好的估計，由於我們兩國政府都在努力通過稀土許可證，我們支付的中國關稅將略有增加。

The Rest of World, which is 23% of our US COGS base going from 10 to 20 and a few above that, like Thailand and Cambodia, which are 36, and Malaysia is at 25, and then Mexico going from 25 to 30, that's the estimate. And in the simplest rule of thumb what we would expect in our income statement this year is about 60% to 65% of that annualized run rate in that ZIP code.

世界其他地區占我們美國銷貨成本基數的 23%，從 10 到 20，還有一些高於此水平，例如泰國和柬埔寨為 36，馬來西亞為 25，然後墨西哥從 25 到 30，這是估計值。依照最簡單的經驗法則，我們預期今年的損益表中該郵遞區號地區的年化運作率約為 60% 至 65%。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to ask on customer buying patterns. It sounded like maybe that signaled there were some inventory that came out in Q2 from the channel. I guess, was that the correct takeaway? And then any expectation on potential destock into the back half of the year? Do you have visibility into that when you speak with the customers, particularly on the home center side?

我想問一下顧客的購買模式。這聽起來可能表明第二季度該渠道有一些庫存推出。我想，這是正確的結論嗎？那麼對於今年下半年潛在的去庫存有什麼預期嗎？當您與客戶交談時，特別是在家居中心方面，您是否了解這一點？

Yes. This is Chris. I'll tackle the second question first is say that we don't -- we see our inventory levels as being healthy. They're in line with historicals. And as we've been in discussions with our channel partners, we anticipate that remaining the same. So there's no big story on destock. What you're referencing from some of -- maybe some of the volatility that we saw in the quarter as it related to buying patterns, that's more in line with the fact that as everyone was trying to be able to put together the best plan that they could for the change in trade policy.

是的。這是克里斯。我首先要回答的第二個問題是，我們認為我們的庫存水準是健康的。它們與歷史相符。正如我們與通路合作夥伴討論的那樣，我們預計情況將保持不變。因此，去庫存化並沒有什麼大不了的事。您提到的某些方面——也許是我們在本季度看到的與購買模式相關的一些波動，這更符合這樣一個事實，即每個人都在努力製定出應對貿易政策變化的最佳計劃。

There were changes in promotional plans as simple as I can put it, where people were deciding what they were going to put on promotion, what they were going to bring in to have promoted in not like Q2 and Q3 and how they were going to adjust their promotional inventories to support that change of plans. So that's a temporary disruption that, I think is what you would expect as people tried to, us included, we went through a fairly extensive process with all of our channel partners and making sure that we could put forth with them the most attractive assortment of products with advantaged position for our -- in a tariff world our end users would want.

促銷計劃發生了變化，我可以說得很簡單，人們正在決定他們要促銷什麼，他們將引入什麼來進行促銷，而不是像第二季度和第三季度那樣，以及他們將如何調整促銷庫存以支持計劃的變化。所以這只是暫時的中斷，我想這也是人們所期望的，包括我們在內，我們與所有通路合作夥伴都經歷了一個相當廣泛的過程，並確保我們能夠向他們提供最具吸引力的產品組合，並在最終用戶想要的關稅世界中佔據優勢地位。

And so we've been going through that planning and that is just a temporary kind of Q2, Q3 dynamic that we saw in the changing of promotional inventory, and timing of those shipments.

因此，我們一直在進行該計劃，這只是我們在促銷庫存和發貨時間變化中看到的一種暫時的 Q2、Q3 動態。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Congrats. I wanted to start with the commentary around outdoor. And just curious if you have any implication around that? Is it any share or is it just category? And does it spill over into other outdoor maybe a little bit more seasonal into more consumer grade or DIY grade other tools?

恭喜。我想從戶外的評論開始。我只是好奇您是否對此有任何暗示？它是任意份額還是僅僅是類別？它是否會影響到其他戶外用品，可能更具季節性，會不會影響到更多消費級或 DIY 級的其他工具？

No. This is Chris. We don't -- it's nothing broader than what I'd say is we had a later start to the season as it was pretty wet. And then what we've been seeing as of late is much more robust POS activity. So as Pat referenced in his comments at the beginning, we see that market as being all in for the year, kind of down 1 point, flat to slightly down overall, but with no real significant change in buying patterns or competitive dynamics.

不。這是克里斯。我們不知道——我想說的是，由於天氣潮濕，這個季節開始得比較晚。我們最近看到的是 POS 活動更加活躍。因此，正如帕特在一開始的評論中提到的那樣，我們認為今年的市場總體呈下降趨勢，下降了 1 點，總體持平或略有下降，但購買模式或競爭動態並沒有發生真正的重大變化。

And we actually believe that based on what we see for more of the industry data, we're actually in a good position from a share perspective as well as we've really been -- seen some nice traction with DEWALT as well as Cub Cadet in those areas.

我們確實相信，根據我們看到的更多行業數據，從份額角度來看，我們實際上處於有利地位，而且我們確實看到 DEWALT 和 Cub Cadet 在這些領域取得了良好的發展勢頭。

Jonathan Matuszewski, Jefferies.

喬納森·馬圖謝夫斯基，傑弗里斯。

Nice to see the ongoing momentum at DEWALT. Can you spend some time discussing the trend at CRAFTSMAN? What are you seeing in the competitive landscape there? And how do you think about factors beyond potential interest rate cuts stimulating demand on the DIY side?

很高興看到 DEWALT 持續保持良好發展勢頭。您能花點時間討論一下 CRAFTSMAN 的趨勢嗎？您看到那裡的競爭格局是怎麼樣的？除了潛在的降息之外，您如何看待刺激 DIY 需求的因素？

Yes, thank you very much. As we've pointed out, we've been very pleased with our continued momentum and really across the board success we've been having with DEWALT for a number of quarters now. And as you think about the CRAFTSMAN brand and playing more in that DIY segment, obviously, that segment has been more affected than the professional as of late.

是的，非常感謝。正如我們所指出的，我們對我們持續的發展勢頭以及 DEWALT 在過去幾季取得的全面成功感到非常高興。當您考慮 CRAFTSMAN 品牌並在 DIY 領域中發揮更多作用時，顯然，該領域最近受到的影響比專業領域更大。

We have seen, -- as we've been looking at our POS versus what we see for credit card data in that area, we've been performing at -- roughly at what we think the market has been doing. So it's been more of a market issue. Obviously, as you point out, there is an interest rate sensitivity to that. But more importantly, from our perspective.

我們已經看到——當我們將我們的 POS 與該地區的信用卡數據進行比較時，我們的表現大致與我們認為的市場表現一致。所以這更多的是一個市場問題。顯然，正如您所指出的，利率對此很敏感。但更重要的是，從我們的角度來看。

We do believe that we have opportunities with the CRAFTSMAN brand to continue to expand our assortment of products and specifically in the power tools space to continue to be able to build out that brand and control what we control and drive organic growth in any market condition. And that's really where we're putting our focus.

我們確實相信，我們有機會透過 CRAFTSMAN 品牌繼續擴大我們的產品種類，特別是在電動工具領域，繼續打造品牌並控制我們所控制的內容，並在任何市場條件下推動有機成長。這確實是我們關注的重點。

We have great channel partners there, and it's an emphasis for everybody moving forward. And I think what we'd say is that we're going to be making significant progress over the next 12-months to 24-months. And when the market turns, which inevitably it will as well with change in repair and remodel work, we're going to be in a position to certainly take advantage of that overall, in the company. So it's a great brand.

我們在那裡擁有優秀的通路合作夥伴，這是每個人前進的重點。我認為我們將在未來 12 個月到 24 個月內取得重大進展。當市場發生變化時（維修和改造工作也必然會發生變化），我們公司將能夠從整體上充分利用這一優勢。所以這是一個偉大的品牌。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Dennis Lange for closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉回給丹尼斯·蘭格，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, Shannon. We'd like to thank everyone again for their time and participation on the call. Obviously, just please contact me if you have further questions. Thank you.

謝謝，香農。我們再次感謝大家在電話會議上付出的時間和參與。當然，如果您還有其他問題，請與我聯絡。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。