史丹利百得 (SWK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the first-quarter 2025 Stanley Black & Decker earnings conference call. My name is Shannon, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加史丹利百得 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫香農 (Shannon)，今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Dennis Lange. Mr. Lange, you may begin.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁丹尼斯·蘭格 (Dennis Lange)。朗格先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for Stanley Black & Decker's 2025 first-quarter webcast. Here today, in addition to myself, is Don Allan, President and CEO; and Chris Nelson, COO, EVP, and President, Tools and Outdoor; and Pat Hallinan, EVP and CFO.

謝謝你，香農。大家早安，感謝您收看史丹利百得 2025 年第一季網路廣播。今天，除了我之外，還有總裁兼執行長唐艾倫 (Don Allan)，營運長、執行副總裁兼工具和戶外用品總裁克里斯尼爾森 (Chris Nelson)，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Pat Hallinan。

Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning; and a supplemental presentation, which we will refer to, are available on the IR section of our website. A replay of this morning's webcast will also be available beginning at 11:00 AM today.

我們的收益報告（已於今天早上發布）以及我們將參考的補充簡報均可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。今天上午的網路直播重播也將於今天上午 11 點開始提供。

This morning, Don, Chris, and Pat will review our 2025 first-quarter results and various other matters, followed by a Q&A session. Consistent with prior webcast, we are going to be sticking with just one question per caller. And as we normally do, we will be making some forward-looking statements during the call based on our current views.

今天上午，Don、Chris 和 Pat 將回顧我們的 2025 年第一季業績和其他各種事項，然後進行問答環節。與先前的網路廣播一致，我們將堅持每個呼叫者只提出一個問題。像往常一樣，我們將根據目前的觀點在電話會議中做出一些前瞻性的陳述。

Such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate, and as such, they involve risk and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that the actual results today may materially differ from any forward-looking statements that we might make today.

此類陳述是基於對未來事件的假設，但這些假設可能並不準確，因此存在風險和不確定性。因此，今天的實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

We direct you to the cautionary statements in the 8-K that we filed with our press release and our most recent '34 Act filing. Additionally, we may also reference non-GAAP financial measures during the call. For applicable reconciliations to the related GAAP financial measures and additional information, please refer to the appendix of the supplemental presentation and the corresponding press release, which are available on our website under the IR section.

我們建議您參閱我們在新聞稿和最新的 '34 法案文件中提交的 8-K 文件中的警告聲明。此外，我們也可能在電話會議中參考非公認會計準則財務指標。有關相關 GAAP 財務指標的適用對帳及其他信息，請參閱補充報告的附錄和相應的新聞稿，這些可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。

I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Don Allan.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長唐艾倫 (Don Allan)。

Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start by recognizing that our transformation is working. And we are focused on seeing it through to completion to drive sustainable market share gains. With operations excellence at our core, we believe the actions we are taking improve our ability to seize the long-term opportunities within the attractive markets that we serve.

謝謝你，丹尼斯，大家早安。首先我要承認我們的轉型正在發揮作用。我們致力於完成這一目標，以推動市場份額的可持續成長。我們以卓越營運為核心，相信我們正在採取的行動能夠提高我們在所服務的有吸引力的市場中抓住長期機會的能力。

As I've said many times, Stanley Black & Decker has incredibly talented people, powerful brands, and an amazing innovation machine. These foundational traits have made us an industry leader for many years. Over the past three years, we have built strong capabilities in our supply chain, which we intend to draw upon as we continue to navigate this moment.

正如我多次說過的，史丹利百得擁有非常有才華的員工、強大的品牌和令人驚嘆的創新機器。這些基礎特質使我們多年來一直處於行業領先地位。在過去三年中，我們在供應鏈中建立了強大的能力，我們打算利用這些能力繼續應對當前的情況。

We also have been investing significantly in our end users and channel customers to provide the best innovation, service, and experience. We intend to continue investing in growth and innovation even in this dynamic period.

我們也一直在對最終用戶和通路客戶進行大量投資，以提供最佳的創新、服務和體驗。即使在這個充滿活力的時期，我們也打算繼續投資成長和創新。

We've been planning for some time for the possibility that US trade policy would change significantly and outlined a three-pronged execution plan of supply chain mitigation, price increases, and partnering with the US administration.

我們已經為美國貿易政策可能發生的重大變化做好了準備，並概述了供應鏈緩解、價格提高和與美國政府合作三管齊下的執行計劃。

While the magnitude and frequency of these changes has exceeded our expectations, we have been and remain prepared to address this dynamic trade environment, and we are responding. As you will hear from the team today, we have a plan for tariffs and have been executing on key elements that will help us mitigate the impact on our business.

雖然這些變化的幅度和頻率超出了我們的預期，但我們已經並將繼續做好準備應對這種動態的貿易環境，我們正在做出反應。正如您今天從團隊那裡聽到的，我們有一個關稅計劃，並且一直在執行有助於我們減輕對業務影響的關鍵要素。

Over the past several years, we have substantially reduced our China manufacturing footprint, which serves the US market. We believe we have the most flexible supply chain footprint in the industry as we now have significant hubs in the US, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, that serve the US market.

在過去幾年裡，我們大幅減少了服務美國市場的中國製造業務。我們相信，我們擁有業界最靈活的供應鏈，因為我們現在在美國、墨西哥和東南亞擁有服務美國市場的重要樞紐。

As we navigate these shifts in trade policy, we are starting from a strong position due to these existing hubs. We intend to build upon them to minimize the impact of higher input costs from tariffs over the next 12 to 24 months. Price increases will be necessary in the US market due to the current tariffs, and we have implemented a substantial increase in April. We have and plan to continue to invest time with the US administration as they work to achieve the President's trade goal.

在我們應對貿易政策的這些轉變時，由於這些現有的樞紐，我們處於有利地位。我們打算在此基礎上，在未來 12 至 24 個月內盡量減少關稅導致的投入成本上升的影響。由於目前的關稅，美國市場必須漲價，我們已經在4月實施了大幅漲價。我們已經並計劃繼續與美國政府一起投入時間，幫助他們實現總統的貿易目標。

Now I want to focus on our performance this quarter. I'm pleased to report that the company's first quarter represented another step forward against our transformation. We delivered a solid start to the year with organic revenue growth and year-over-year gross margin expansion, both key measures of continued progress towards our strategic objectives. Organic growth was up 1%, led by solid outdoor performance.

現在我想重點談談我們本季的表現。我很高興地報告，公司第一季的業績代表我們的轉型又向前邁進了一步。我們今年取得了良好的開端，實現了有機收入成長和毛利率年增，這兩項都是我們繼續朝著策略目標前進的關鍵指標。有機成長率上升了 1%，這主要得益於戶外業務的穩健表現。

Our powerhouse and professionally focused DEWALT brand extended its streak of year-over-year revenue growth, with power tools, hand tools, accessories, and storage and outdoor all contributing. These organic growth drivers were more than offset by 2 points of pressure from the final quarter of lapping the infrastructure business divestiture and 2 points of currency pressure.

我們強大且專注於專業的 DEWALT 品牌延續了去年同期收入成長的勢頭，其中電動工具、手動工具、配件以及儲存和戶外產品均做出了貢獻。這些有機成長動力被最後一個季度因基礎設施業務剝離而產生的 2 個點的壓力和 2 個點的貨幣壓力所抵消。

Taken together, this resulted in total revenue of $3.7 billion, consistent with our plan. North American end market demand, as measured by our retail POS, in the first quarter was generally consistent with the stable trends we observed exiting 2024. The year started slow, but March improved and April looks solid as well. Adjusted gross margin continued to improve on a year-over-year basis.

總體而言，總收入達到 37 億美元，與我們的計畫一致。以我們的零售 POS 衡量，第一季北美終端市場需求與我們觀察到的 2024 年後穩定趨勢基本一致。今年開局緩慢，但三月有所改善，四月看起來也較為穩健。調整後的毛利率較去年同期持續改善。

The first-quarter adjusted rate of 30.4% was up 140 basis points versus last year. Supply chain efficiencies and positive mix benefits from new innovation launches were partially offset by freight inflation and the initial impact from China and Mexico tariffs initiated in February. We are firmly executing against our strategic objectives and are on track with our transformation plan.

第一季調整後的利率為 30.4%，較去年同期上升了 140 個基點。供應鏈效率和新創新帶來的正面組合效益被運費通膨以及 2 月中國和墨西哥關稅的初步影響部分抵消。我們正在堅定地執行我們的策略目標，並且正在順利推動我們的轉型計劃。

We intend to successfully complete our transformation in 2025 and meet our $2 billion savings target. The organic growth we delivered in the first quarter, along with the year-over-year gross margin expansion, translated into solid adjusted EBITDA performance. Net of growth investments, adjusted EBITDA margin approached 10%, an increase of approximately 80 basis points versus the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.75, up 34% versus last year.

我們計劃在 2025 年成功完成轉型並實現 20 億美元的節省目標。我們在第一季實現的有機成長以及毛利率的同比擴大轉化為穩健的調整後 EBITDA 業績。扣除成長投資後，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率接近 10%，較前一年增加約 80 個基點。調整後每股收益為 0.75 美元，較去年同期成長 34%。

First-quarter free cash outflow was $485 million, relatively consistent with both the prior year and typical historical seasonality, an impressive result considering we pursued targeted inventory investments to navigate the current trade situation. Overall, a solid quarter as we continue to make meaningful progress on what is within our control. I want to thank the organization for staying focused on execution and making forward progress once again.

第一季自由現金流為 4.85 億美元，與前一年和典型的歷史季節性相對一致，考慮到我們進行有針對性的庫存投資以應對當前的貿易形勢，這是一個令人印象深刻的結果。總體而言，這是一個穩健的季度，我們在可控範圍內的事情上繼續取得有意義的進展。我要感謝組織繼續專注於執行並再次取得進展。

We clearly are entering a dynamic period with reduced visibility, albeit with relatively stable demand based on what we're seeing in the market and across the business. While we don't know the full picture of how tariffs will impact the US economy or demand in our categories, we are preparing ourselves for multiple demand scenarios this year.

儘管根據我們在市場和整個業務中看到的情況，需求相對穩定，但我們顯然正在進入一個能見度降低的動態時期。雖然我們不清楚關稅將如何影響美國經濟或我們所在類別的需求，但我們正在為今年的多種需求情境做好準備。

And even though it's too early to predict all the different direct and indirect impacts, as I mentioned earlier, we do believe the current trade policies will prompt significant price increases for companies in our industry and many others. We will continue to monitor these evolving policies as well as project the potential effects on the operating and demand environment to remain agile and responsive to evolving market conditions.

儘管現在預測所有直接和間接影響還為時過早，但正如我之前提到的，我們確實相信，目前的貿易政策將導致我們行業和許多其他行業的公司價格大幅上漲。我們將繼續關注這些不斷變化的政策，並預測其對營運和需求環境的潛在影響，以保持靈活性並對不斷變化的市場條件做出反應。

Over the past few years, we have strengthened our execution capability and have consistently delivered results in an overall weak market backdrop. Our strategic decisions are aimed at navigating the immediate challenges while positioning the company for sustained long-term success. Our top priorities remain clear and intact.

過去幾年，我們加強了執行能力，在整體市場疲軟的背景下持續取得成果。我們的策略決策旨在應對當前的挑戰，同時使公司獲得長期的持續成功。我們的首要任務依然明確且不變。

We are accelerating our growth culture and placing a priority on serving our end users and customers. We expect to control costs while prioritizing growth investments as we continue our journey to sustainable share gain. We also expect commercial opportunities to emerge for our businesses, particularly as we further leverage our North American footprint to serve local markets.

我們正在加速我們的成長文化，並優先服務我們的最終用戶和客戶。我們希望在繼續實現可持續的份額成長的過程中，控製成本，同時優先考慮成長投資。我們也期待我們的業務能夠出現商業機會，特別是當我們進一步利用我們在北美的業務來服務當地市場時。

We remain focused on generating cash and strengthening our balance sheet. Long term, we intend to mitigate the cost burden of tariffs through supply chain adjustments and other cost controls, some of which are already in flight, while some will take time to fully implement.

我們仍然專注於創造現金和加強我們的資產負債表。從長遠來看，我們打算透過供應鏈調整和其他成本控制措施來減輕關稅的成本負擔，其中一些措施已經在實施中，而另一些措施則需要時間才能全面實施。

As such, pricing is a necessary initial response to protect our cash flow so that we have time for the full effect of our supply chain strategies to hit our P&L and we can continue to fuel innovation. In this context, as I mentioned earlier, we implemented an initial US Tools and Outdoor price increase in April and notified our customers that further price action is likely required if existing tariffs stay at current levels.

因此，定價是保護我們現金流的必要的初步反應，以便我們有時間充分發揮供應鏈策略對我們的損益的影響，並繼續推動創新。在此背景下，正如我之前提到的，我們在 4 月首次提高了美國工具和戶外用品的價格，並通知我們的客戶，如果現有關稅保持在當前水平，可能需要採取進一步的價格行動。

To summarize, even in the current circumstances, we believe we are decisively advancing towards the successful completion of our strategic transformation, building a sustainable productivity engine to fund growth investments and support our long-term margin journey.

總而言之，即使在當前情況下，我們也相信我們正在堅定地朝著成功完成策略轉型的方向前進，建立可持續的生產力引擎，為成長投資提供資金，並支持我們的長期利潤之旅。

The capabilities we've built during this process will aid in accelerating adjustments to adapt to the new economic backdrop. Chris will share more about the near-term opportunities that we are pursuing in just a moment. Pat then will share more detail on financial planning.

我們在這個過程中建立的能力將有助於加快調整以適應新的經濟背景。克里斯稍後將分享更多有關我們正在追求的近期機會的資訊。接下來，帕特將分享更多有關財務規劃的細節。

Given the fluid environment today, we are providing our latest thoughts on 2025 with sensitivities to help model different scenarios. We have our sights set on share gains and long-term value creation, and are committed to making the necessary decisions along the way to achieve our long-term financial objectives.

鑑於當今不斷變化的環境，我們提供了對 2025 年的最新思考，並結合敏感度來幫助模擬不同的情境。我們著眼於份額成長和長期價值創造，並致力於在實現長期財務目標的過程中做出必要的決策。

I will now pass it to Chris Nelson, who will review the business segment performance and provide more context on how we successfully execute our strategy in a volatile trade environment.

現在我將把它交給克里斯·尼爾森，他將審查業務部門的表現，並提供更多關於我們如何在動蕩的貿易環境中成功執行策略的背景資訊。

Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. I will start with the Tools and Outdoor first-quarter operating performance. Revenue was approximately $3.3 billion, flat versus the first quarter of 2024. Organic revenue grew 1% driven by volume. DEWALT was a key contributor to this performance in the quarter, with revenue up mid-single digits.

謝謝你，唐，大家早安。我將從工具和戶外第一季的營運表現開始。營收約 33 億美元，與 2024 年第一季持平。受銷量推動，有機收入成長了 1%。DEWALT 是本季業績表現的主要貢獻者，其營收成長了中個位數。

Driven by professional demand, the brand achieved its eighth consecutive quarter of revenue growth. In addition, we had strong outdoor product shipments ahead of the season. These positive factors were partially offset by a cautious consumer and continued softness in the DIY market. Adjusted segment margin was 9.6%, a 110-basis-point improvement as compared to the first quarter of last year.

在專業需求的推動下，該品牌實現了連續第八個季度的營收成長。此外，我們在季節來臨之前戶外產品的出貨量非常強勁。但這些正面因素被消費者的謹慎態度和 DIY 市場的持續疲軟部分抵消。調整後分部利潤率為 9.6%，較去年第一季提高 110 個基點。

This was largely attributable to supply chain efficiencies and new innovation benefits. Partially offsetting this was freight inflation, the initial impacts from incremental tariffs announced during the first quarter, and targeted investments in growth initiatives.

這主要歸功於供應鏈效率和新的創新優勢。部分抵消了這一影響的是貨運通膨、第一季宣布的增量關稅的初步影響以及對成長計劃的有針對性的投資。

Turning to performance by product line. Power tools experienced a 2% organic revenue decline, as the consumer DIY category remained pressured. Hand tools achieved 1% organic revenue growth supported by strong reception from customers of new products designed with an end user-centric mindset to improve their productivity.

轉向按產品線劃分的性能。由於消費者 DIY 類別仍面臨壓力，電動工具的有機收入下降了 2%。手動工具實現了 1% 的有機收入成長，這得益於客戶對以最終用戶為中心、旨在提高生產效率的新產品的強烈歡迎。

A couple of examples include the DEWALT construction jack, which offers hands-free lift assistance and the DEWALT TOUGHSYSTEM 2.0 DXL modular workstation system. Outdoor posted 6% organic growth, led by a return-to-normal seasonal load-ins with our channel partners as well as new listings and expanded spring promotional placements at our retail partners.

其中幾個例子包括 DEWALT 建築千斤頂，它提供免提升降輔助，以及 DEWALT TOUGHSYSTEM 2.0 DXL 模組化工作站系統。戶外用品實現了 6% 的有機成長，這主要得益於通路合作夥伴恢復正常的季節性裝載量以及零售合作夥伴的新上市和擴大的春季促銷活動。

Focusing on Tools and Outdoor performance by region, North America recorded a 2% organic revenue increase, reflecting the overall segment's growth factors. As Don stated, total quarter US POS demand was stable, and that continued into April. We are tracking demand closely and looking for signs of change in consumer behaviors, especially as our first round of price increases begin to hit the shelf.

關注各地區的工具和戶外產品表現，北美地區的有機收入成長了 2%，反映了整個部門的成長因素。正如唐所言，整個季度美國 POS 需求保持穩定，並且這種趨勢持續到了四月。我們正在密切追蹤需求並尋找消費者行為變化的跡象，特別是在我們的第一輪價格上漲開始實施的時候。

Europe organic growth was flat as our investments in Eastern Europe are yielding results, which counteracted a generally weak market backdrop due to macro factors. Rest of World organic revenue was down 3% as Latin America was comping robust growth last year. Based on current underlying market demand, we expect to return to growth in the coming quarters.

歐洲有機成長持平，因為我們在東歐的投資正在產生成果，抵消了宏觀因素導致的普遍疲軟的市場背景。由於拉丁美洲去年實現了強勁成長，世界其他地區的有機收入下降了 3%。根據當前潛在的市場需求，我們預計未來幾季將恢復成長。

In summary, the growth in margin performance was a solid start to 2025 and was in line with our plan for the segment. Now let's transition to Engineered Fastening, which was our former Industrial segment. We made this name change to reflect the segment's more focused portfolio.

總而言之，利潤率的成長為 2025 年帶來了良好的開端，並且符合我們針對該部門的計畫。現在讓我們轉到工程緊固，這是我們以前的工業部門。我們進行此名稱變更是為了反映該部門更專注的產品組合。

On a reported basis, first-quarter revenue for Engineered Fastening was down 21% versus prior year. 16 points of the decline was attributable to the final quarter of lapping the infrastructure business divestiture. Other factors impacting revenue included a 1 point increase in price, 2 points of volume pressure, 2 points of currency pressure, and a 2-point decline due to a product line transfer to the Tools and Outdoor segment. All told, there was a slight organic revenue decline of 1%.

據報道，Engineered Fastening 第一季的營收比去年同期下降了 21%。其中 16 個百分點的下降可歸因於最後一個季度基礎設施業務的剝離。其他影響收入的因素包括價格上漲 1 個百分點、銷售壓力 2 個百分點、貨幣壓力 2 個百分點以及由於產品線轉移到工具和戶外部門而導致的收入下降 2 個百分點。整體而言，有機收入略有下降，為 1%。

The automotive business faced a high single-digit organic decline, primarily due to OEMs reducing light vehicle production schedules and tightening capital expenditures. The aerospace business generated robust mid-teens organic growth, driven by strong performance in fasteners and fittings. This business has a multiyear backlog and growth outlook, reinforced by new content wins in a high booking rate.

汽車業務面臨高個位數有機下滑，主要原因是原始設備製造商減少輕型汽車生產計劃並收緊資本支出。在緊固件和配件強勁表現的推動下，航太業務實現了強勁的中十幾歲有機成長。該業務擁有多年的積壓訂單和成長前景，高預訂率的新內容勝利進一步鞏固了這項業務。

General industrial fasteners achieved low single-digit organic growth, reflecting steady demand. The Engineered Fastening adjusted segment margin rate was 10.1% for the quarter. This is a decline from the previous year, largely due to softness in high-margin automotive products. Successfully complete our transformation in 2025 remains a top priority and is core to improving our cost structure, advancing customer-focused innovation, and driving our growth initiatives with the underlying objective of generating profitable and sustainable market share gains.

通用工業緊固件實現了低個位數有機成長，反映出穩定的需求。本季工程緊固件部門調整後的利潤率為 10.1%。與上年相比有所下降，主要是由於高利潤汽車產品的疲軟。在 2025 年成功完成轉型仍然是我們的首要任務，也是改善我們的成本結構、推進以客戶為中心的創新和推動我們的成長計劃的核心，其根本目標是實現盈利和可持續的市場份額增長。

As it relates to costs, we continue actively implementing our series of initiatives, which are projected to yield approximately $2 billion of pretax run rate cost savings, of which $1.5 billion is coming from the supply chain. We have identified the key sources of savings this year and are progressing down the path towards our 2025 full-year target of $500 million of savings.

至於成本，我們繼續積極實施一系列舉措，預計這些舉措將帶來約 20 億美元的稅前運行成本節約，其中 15 億美元來自供應鏈。我們已經確定了今年的主要節約來源，並正在朝著 2025 年全年節省 5 億美元的目標邁進。

In the first quarter, we achieved approximately $130 million in pretax run rate cost savings, bringing our total savings to approximately $1.7 billion since the program's inception. We continue to enhance our strong culture of operational excellence and build a sustainable productivity engine, both of which we believe are critical to funding growth investments and achieving our long-term 35%-plus adjusted gross margin goal.

第一季度，我們實現了約 1.3 億美元的稅前運行成本節約，自該計劃實施以來，我們的總節約額已達到約 17 億美元。我們將繼續加強我們卓越的營運文化並建立可持續的生產力引擎，我們相信這兩者對於資助成長投資和實現我們長期 35% 以上的調整後毛利率目標至關重要。

Accelerating our growth culture is also key. Our teams are focused on further enhancing service for our end users and customers as we continuously improve our supply chain. The right side of the page highlights two examples of how we are seizing opportunities with priority end users in attractive markets and concentrating investments behind our core brands.

加速我們的成長文化也很重要。隨著我們不斷改進供應鏈，我們的團隊致力於進一步增強對最終用戶和客戶的服務。頁面右側重點介紹了兩個範例，說明我們如何在有吸引力的市場中抓住優先最終用戶的機會，並將投資集中在我們的核心品牌上。

One key initiative is increasing DEWALT penetration in Saudi Arabia, a market in which we've historically been underweight. We are taking a local and focused market activation approach to serve our customers and gain market share in a region that is experiencing robust construction growth.

一項關鍵舉措是提高 DEWALT 在沙烏地阿拉伯的滲透率，我們過去一直對該市場持股不足。我們採取在地化和重點市場活化的方式，為我們的客戶提供服務，並在建築業強勁成長的地區贏得市場份額。

One strategy we're pursuing to drive growth is portable job site containers that operate as mobile service stations. These containers offer a range of efficiency driving solutions, including training, tool repair, and loan and purchase options to reduce downtime on the job site.

我們推行的推動成長的策略之一是將便攜式工作現場貨櫃用作行動服務站。這些貨櫃提供了一系列高效的駕駛解決方案，包括培訓、工具維修以及貸款和購買選項，以減少工作現場的停機時間。

This quarter, we also launched DEWALT TOUGHWIRE, a versatile cable hanger system, revolutionizing HVAC sheet metal, electrical, and plumbing trade applications with customizable suspension solutions. Informed and inspired by our professional end users, this system is designed to improve efficiency and simplify installations.

本季度，我們還推出了多功能電纜吊架系統 DEWALT TOUGHWIRE，透過可自訂的懸吊解決方案徹底改變了 HVAC 鈑金、電氣和管道貿易應用。該系統受到我們專業最終用戶的信息和啟發，旨在提高效率並簡化安裝。

These are just two examples of many across our portfolio to illustrate how we are innovating with purpose and addressing unique challenges of tradespeople with safe, productivity-enhancing, and durable solutions. We believe we are taking the right actions to thoughtfully and aggressively prioritize resources to deliver consistent, profitable share gain.

這只是我們眾多產品組合中的兩個例子，旨在說明我們如何有目的地進行創新，並透過安全、提高生產力和持久的解決方案來應對工匠面臨的獨特挑戰。我們相信，我們正在採取正確的行動，認真、積極地優先安排資源，以實現持續、有利可圖的份額成長。

Like many companies with global supply chains, we are currently navigating a frequently changing and complex operating environment. As we take decisive actions, our goal is to position the business for success with focus on achieving our long-term financial objectives. It is crucial that we balance meeting the near-term needs of the business with preserving and maximizing long-term value, all while maintaining our customer-first mindset.

與許多擁有全球供應鏈的公司一樣，我們目前正在應對頻繁變化且複雜的營運環境。當我們採取果斷行動時，我們的目標是使業務成功，並專注於實現我們的長期財務目標。至關重要的是，我們要在滿足業務的短期需求與維持和最大化長期價值之間取得平衡，同時保持客戶至上的理念。

Our business teams are continuously assessing the evolving trade policies and diligently evaluating their impacts on our global supply chain and our business. In October of last year, we outlined how we were enhancing our preparations to mitigate the potential impact of higher tariffs. And we have continued to stay true to our plans and the four guiding principles behind them.

我們的業務團隊正在不斷評估不斷變化的貿易政策，並認真評估其對我們的全球供應鏈和業務的影響。去年十月，我們概述瞭如何加強準備以減輕提高關稅的潛在影響。我們將繼續堅持我們的計劃及其背後的四項指導原則。

First and foremost, we are committed to serving our customers and end users during this dynamic period. Our end users' core needs don't change with changes in the macroeconomic environment. They still demand solutions that deliver high performance, safety, and productivity. We intend to be here for them and to continue to invest responsibly in growth and innovation, even in this dynamic period.

首先，我們致力於在這個動態時期為我們的客戶和最終用戶提供服務。我們的最終用戶的核心需求不會隨著宏觀經濟環境的變化而改變。他們仍然需要能夠提供高效能、安全性和高生產力的解決方案。我們願意為他們提供幫助，即使在這個充滿活力的時期，我們也將繼續負責任地投資於成長和創新。

Second, we are working to minimize the impact of higher input costs from tariffs by accelerating the repositioning of our supply chain. We estimate this to be a 12- to 24-month process. And we believe there are adjustments that could begin to contribute to reducing the impact this year.

其次，我們正在努力透過加快供應鏈的重新定位來最大限度地減少關稅導致的投入成本上升的影響。我們估計這是一個12到24個月的過程。我們相信，今年的調整可能有助於減少影響。

Today, approximately 15% of our supply chain for the US comes from China. Through our mitigation efforts, we're focused on effectively being out of China supply for the US business in the 12- to 24-month time period. This is a high priority and will remain a key focus even if China tariffs go to lower levels. We also have plans to increase our USMCA compliance from where it stands today at just below one-third of Mexico's supply for the US.

如今，我們為美國提供的供應鏈中約有 15% 來自中國。透過我們的緩解措施，我們致力於在 12 至 24 個月的時間內有效地切斷美國企業的中國供應。這是一項高度優先事項，即使中國關稅降至較低水平，它仍將是關注的重點。我們還計劃提高我們對 USMCA 的遵守程度，目前我們的供應量略低於墨西哥對美國的供應量的三分之一。

Third, we are moving with speed on price increases. We are taking a judicious approach, maintaining a long-term perspective as we make the adjustments necessary to protect our cash flow, EBITDA, and margin structure.

三是價格上漲步伐加快。我們採取明智的做法，保持長遠眼光，並進行必要的調整以保護我們的現金流量、EBITDA 和利潤結構。

Finally, we continue to engage with the US administration as they work to achieve their trade-related goals. Turning to the current situation, you can see our production mix from the US, Mexico, and China, that we've previously disclosed to help size the potential impact of changes in policy.

最後，我們將繼續與美國政府合作，努力實現其貿易相關目標。談到當前的情況，您可以看到我們之前披露的來自美國、墨西哥和中國的生產組合，以幫助衡量政策變化的潛在影響。

It's important to note that we have developed a flexible footprint to leverage as trade policy evolves. Of the $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion in supply from the rest of the world, 75% of that is comprised of four countries: Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand.

值得注意的是，隨著貿易政策的演變，我們已經形成了彈性的影響力。來自世界其他地區的 15 億至 16 億美元供應量中，75% 來自四個國家：台灣、越南、馬來西亞和泰國。

Additionally, our long-held local-for-local manufacturing and distribution strategy strongly resonates today with greater than 60% of our costs located in North America. We believe we have created a flexible and industry-leading footprint for global tools and outdoor companies that can be a competitive advantage in this environment.

此外，我們長期堅持的在地化製造和分銷策略如今已產生強烈共鳴，我們 60% 以上的成本位於北美。我們相信，我們已經為全球工具和戶外公司創造了靈活且領先業界的足跡，這可以在這種環境中成為競爭優勢。

A few updates on the mitigation actions; first, on price. In April, we successfully implemented a high single-digit average price increase across our United States retail partners. Given the magnitude of the current tariff rates, we are actively engaged with our channel partners about a second price increase, targeting implementation at the beginning of the third quarter.

關於緩解措施的一些更新；首先是關於價格。四月份，我們成功地在美國零售合作夥伴中實現了高個位數的平均價格上漲。鑑於目前關稅稅率的幅度，我們正在積極與通路夥伴商討第二次漲價，目標是在第三季初實施。

As it relates to our supply chain moves, the teams are actively prioritizing projects that we believe deliver the highest value at the quickest pace. For example, we have opportunities in our supply chain to move dual-sourced SKUs out of China and into Mexico. Additionally, we are pursuing relatively straightforward supply adjustments to increase the amount of USMCA-qualified product coming from Mexico.

由於它與我們的供應鏈舉措相關，團隊正在積極優先考慮我們認為能夠以最快的速度提供最高價值的項目。例如，我們的供應鏈有機會將雙來源的 SKU 從中國轉移到墨西哥。此外，我們正在推行相對簡單的供應調整，以增加來自墨西哥的符合 USMCA 資格的產品的數量。

With all that in mind, based on our understanding of trade policies as it stands today, our current estimated 2025 headwind, net of mitigation, is approximately $0.75 on an adjusted EPS basis. In addition to pursuing mitigation actions, we are also evaluating new commercial opportunities, which leverage our US plants.

考慮到所有這些，根據我們對當前貿易政策的理解，我們目前估計的 2025 年逆風（扣除緩解措施）按調整後的每股收益計算約為 0.75 美元。除了採取緩解措施外，我們還在評估新的商業機會，以利用我們的美國工廠。

We manufacture a significant amount of outdoor, hand tools, storage, and engineered fasteners in America. We will remain agile as the policy landscape evolves. And in a moment, Pat will outline more details for scenario planning purposes.

我們在美國生產大量的戶外、手動工具、儲存和工程緊固件。隨著政策情勢的變化，我們將保持敏捷。稍後，帕特將概述情景規劃目的的更多細節。

When presented with an environment like this current one, it requires strong coordination across our enterprise to ensure our response is well orchestrated and timely. And I'm proud of how our teams are coming together to find creative, impactful solutions.

當面臨像當前這樣的環境時，需要整個企業進行強有力的協調，以確保我們的回應得到妥善協調和及時回應。我為我們的團隊齊心協力尋找富有創意和影響力的解決方案而感到自豪。

We are thoughtfully and aggressively navigating the path forward as we focus on serving our customers, optimizing our cost structure, and protecting cash flow as we position the business to achieve its long-term potential. These environments present as many opportunities as there are challenges, and we are squarely focused on both.

我們正在深思熟慮並積極地探索前進的道路，專注於服務我們的客戶、優化我們的成本結構和保護現金流，以實現業務的長期潛力。這些環境既帶來了機遇，也帶來了挑戰，我們正全心全意地關注著這兩者。

Thank you, and I'll now pass the call over to Pat Hallinan.

謝謝，現在我將電話轉給 Pat Hallinan。

Thank you, Chris, and greetings to everyone on the call today. I'm going to devote the majority of my prepared remarks to discussing how we are approaching the current environment. Before I do, I just want to reiterate that we are encouraged by the progress we achieved in the first quarter, marked by organic revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and continued advancement towards our strategic financial objectives.

謝謝你，克里斯，並向今天參加電話會議的每個人問好。我將用我準備好的大部分發言時間來討論我們如何應對當前的環境。在此之前，我只想重申，我們對第一季的進展感到鼓舞，這體現在有機收入成長、毛利率擴大以及我們繼續朝著策略財務目標前進。

Now turning to the balance of the year. As is well covered at this point in the earnings cycle, many companies are navigating the uncertainty stemming from rapidly evolving trade policies. In response, Stanley Black & Decker intends to remain nimble and strive to counter the effect of tariffs with measures within our control, such as supply chain adjustments and price.

現在來談談今年的餘額。正如獲利週期目前所涵蓋的那樣，許多公司正在應對快速變化的貿易政策所帶來的不確定性。作為回應，史丹利百得打算保持靈活，努力透過我們可控的措施（例如供應鏈調整和價格）來抵消關稅的影響。

We will leverage the internal team we assembled during 2024 to enable our organization to address tariffs while keeping our strategic objectives in focus. Our teams have conducted extensive internal planning to prepare for a range of scenarios during 2025 and beyond and to facilitate our response.

我們將利用 2024 年組成的內部團隊，使我們的組織能夠解決關稅問題，同時保持我們的策略目標的重點。我們的團隊進行了廣泛的內部規劃，為 2025 年及以後的各種情況做好準備並促進我們的應對。

Today, we will present the scenario against which we are executing. To note, we are not macro forecasters, and we have not endeavored to formulate a holistic macro forecast or call a US recession, though our scenario planning does contemplate a continuation of the persistently soft DIY landscape and considers tactical adjustments retailers may make as they navigate tariffs.

今天，我們將介紹我們正在執行的場景。需要注意的是，我們不是宏觀預測者，我們也沒有試圖制定整體宏觀預測或預測美國經濟衰退，但我們的情境規劃確實考慮到持續疲軟的 DIY 格局的延續，並考慮了零售商在應對關稅時可能做出的策略調整。

We believe we are prepared to adapt to changes in the economy and in our end markets if such events come to pass. Our planning assumptions incorporate the current in-effect policy as of April 29, which includes 145% incremental tariffs on China, 25% on non-USMCA-compliant goods from Mexico, 10% for the rest of the world, and the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum.

我們相信，如果此類事件發生，我們已準備好適應經濟和終端市場的變化。我們的規劃假設包含了截至 4 月 29 日的現行政策，其中包括對中國徵收 145% 的增量關稅、對來自墨西哥的不符合 USMCA 規定的商品徵收 25% 的關稅、對世界其他地區徵收 10% 的關稅以及對鋼鐵和鋁徵收第 232 條關稅。

Our commercial and operational mitigation strategies, we believe, are designed to protect both cash generation and margins in response to the anticipated approximately $1.7 billion of estimated gross annualized tariffs. To be clear, this amount is not what we expect to hit our P&L this year or even next year, after taking into account cost mitigation and price.

我們認為，我們的商業和營運緩解策略旨在保護現金產生和利潤，以應對預計約 17 億美元的年度總關稅。需要明確的是，考慮到成本降低和價格因素後，這個金額並不是我們預期今年甚至明年的損益金額。

We estimate the 2025 net earnings per share headwind after supply chain adjustments and price increases to be $0.75. The impact to 2025 is primarily due to the time required to activate pricing with our customers and the P&L cost of tariffs, the timing of which is impacted by inventory accounting.

我們估計，在供應鏈調整和價格上漲後，2025年每股淨收益將面臨0.75美元的不利影響。對2025年的影響主要在於與客戶啟動定價所需的時間以及關稅的損益成本，而關稅的生效時間受庫存會計的影響。

Our ultimate goal is to strive to mitigate fully these headwinds. Since supply chain adjustments require time to implement, pricing actions are the quickest countermeasure at our disposal. In addition to supply chain and price actions, we anticipate capturing cost savings in the core business from the final phase of our transformation plus incremental SG&A cost containment.

我們的最終目標是努力完全緩解這些不利因素。由於供應鏈調整需要時間來實施，因此定價行動是我們能採取的最快應對措施。除了供應鏈和價格行動之外，我們還預計在轉型的最後階段實現核心業務的成本節約以及增量銷售、一般和行政費用控制。

Our intent is to protect growth investments that we believe will drive long-term share gains and generate positive returns. By remaining agile and pulling levers primarily within our control, we remain focused on delivering our long-term margin journey.

我們的目的是保護那些我們認為能夠推動長期份額成長並產生正回報的成長型投資。透過保持敏捷並主要在我們控制範圍內拉動槓桿，我們仍然專注於實現長期利潤目標。

Turning to our planning assumptions for 2025. We entered this period in a relatively stable demand environment characterized by consistent pro demand and DIY softness, and with aggregate US Tools and Outdoor customer inventory levels consistent with historic norms. It is of paramount importance to uphold our service levels to customers while we take the necessary actions we've discussed to protect the business as the trade environment evolves.

談談我們對 2025 年的規劃假設。我們進入這段時期時，需求環境相對穩定，其特徵是專業需求持續穩定、DIY 需求疲軟，美國工具和戶外客戶的總庫存水準與歷史常態一致。隨著貿易環境的變化，我們採取必要措施保護業務，同時保持對客戶的服務水準至關重要。

Our 2025 GAAP earnings per share planning scenario is $3.30 plus or minus $0.15, which translates to adjusted earnings per share of approximately $4.50. Full-year GAAP earnings include pretax non-GAAP adjustments ranging from $195 million to $260 million. Adjusted earnings per share within our current planning assumption is $0.75 lower compared to the February pre-tariff view. The main factor is the aforementioned net headwinds from tariffs.

我們對2025年GAAP每股盈餘的規劃為3.30美元，上下浮動0.15美元，相當於調整後每股盈餘約4.50美元。全年GAAP收益包含稅前非GAAP調整，範圍在1.95億美元至2.6億美元之間。我們目前計劃假設內的調整後每股收益與 2 月份關稅前預期相比低 0.75 美元。主要因素是前面提到的關稅淨阻力。

Additionally, the negative impact from volume is fully offset by incremental SG&A cost containment, favorable currency, and a modest benefit to below-the-line items. We are managing capital spending and working capital to be responsive to the underlying environment with a plan for free cash flow to meet or exceed $500 million assuming the operational characteristics of this planning framework.

此外，銷售量帶來的負面影響完全被增量銷售、一般及行政費用控制、有利的貨幣以及低於標準項目的適度收益所抵銷。我們正在管理資本支出和營運資本，以響應底層環境，並計劃在假設該規劃框架的營運特徵的情況下使自由現金流達到或超過 5 億美元。

In our planning scenario, total company sales is forecasted to increase low single digits and organic revenue growth is planned for low to mid-single-digit expansion, driven by an assumption for mid-single-digit price, which is partially offset by a low single-digit decline in volume. Currency and the infrastructure business divestiture, combined, are expected to be a low single-digit headwind to sales versus the prior year.

在我們的規劃情境中，預計公司總銷售額將以低個位數成長，有機收入成長計畫將以低到中個位數擴張，這受到中等個位數價格假設的推動，但銷量將以低個位數下降部分抵消。預計貨幣和基礎設施業務剝離將對銷售額造成與去年相比較低的個位數阻力。

When looking at the segment level, global Tools and Outdoor organic revenue is forecasted to expand low to mid-single digits, now driven by price rather than volume. Note, US Tools and Outdoor carries the greatest magnitude of price and volume tariff impacts from mid-second quarter through December. And therefore, the percentage magnitude of price and volume impacts within the US business is expected to be greater than that for the overall segment during the second half.

從細分市場來看，全球工具和戶外用品的有機收入預計將擴大低至中等個位數，目前是由價格而非數量驅動的。請注意，從第二季中期到 12 月，美國工具和戶外用品產業受到的價格和批量關稅影響最大。因此，預計下半年美國業務的價格和銷售影響百分比將高於整體業務。

Engineered Fastening is expected to contribute low single-digit organic revenue growth. We believe these are prudent assumptions, taking into account the impact of higher interest rates on housing and the soft DIY consumer, our price increases, and the potential short-term tactical decisions that customers may make as they respond to tariffs.

工程緊固件業務預計將貢獻低個位數的自然收入成長。我們認為這些都是謹慎的假設，考慮到了上調利率對住房和疲軟的 DIY 消費者的影響、我們的價格上漲以及客戶在應對關稅時可能做出的潛在短期戰術決策。

To help those who want to model volume or cost sensitivities against our planning assumptions, we have provided additional context. It is our expectation that a 1-percentage-point change in US volume would result in roughly a $0.13 impact to adjusted earnings per share. This assumption contains decrementals to 20% to 25% with cost control or similar incremental net of growth investment. Our intent is to contain the profit downside to these levels, depending on the magnitude of any volume shifts.

為了幫助那些想要根據我們的規劃假設對數量或成本敏感性進行建模的人，我們提供了額外的背景資訊。我們預計，美國交易量 1 個百分點的變化將對調整後每股收益產生約 0.13 美元的影響。這項假設包含 20% 至 25% 的減量，成本控製或類似的增量淨成長投資。我們的目的是將利潤下滑控制在這些水平，具體取決於交易量變化的幅度。

In the event of tariff reductions, the benefit would be from the relief date through the duration period when these mitigations are assumed to be in effect. Regarding our cost savings strategy, we anticipate achieving $500 million in supply chain cost savings in 2025, in addition to an assumption for savings from tariff mitigation actions.

如果關稅降低，則優惠將從減免日期持續到假定這些減免措施生效的持續時間。關於我們的成本節約策略，我們預計到 2025 年，供應鏈成本將節省 5 億美元，此外還假設透過降低關稅的措施可以節省成本。

Additionally, we are striving to reduce SG&A, while protecting the priority growth investments contemplated in our '25 plan. Under these assumptions, we are expecting adjusted EBITDA margin rate to expand year over year.

此外，我們正在努力降低銷售、一般和行政費用，同時保護我們的「25」計畫中考慮的優先成長投資。根據這些假設，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將逐年擴大。

As it relates to the second quarter, we are planning for flat to low single-digit organic revenue decline and an expectation for positive adjusted pretax earnings. The second quarter will carry a heavy tariff burden due to LIFO. In an environment characterized by reduced visibility and frequent changes, our top priorities are unchanged.

就第二季而言，我們預計有機收入將持平至低個位數下降，並預期調整後的稅前收益為正。由於後進先出法，第二季的關稅負擔將很重。在可見度降低和頻繁變化的環境中，我們的首要任務保持不變。

We are committed to advancing towards our long-term strategic and financial goals, and do not believe policy changes impact our ability to achieve those over time. Our effort to successfully finish the supply chain transformation in 2025 is pivotal in supporting gross margins. And we are now pivoting to growth and striving to accelerate the company's share gain capabilities.

我們致力於實現我們的長期策略和財務目標，並且不相信政策變化會影響我們實現這些目標的能力。我們努力在 2025 年成功完成供應鏈轉型，這對於支持毛利率至關重要。我們現在正轉向成長並努力加速公司的份額成長能力。

Finally, robust cash conversion and strengthening our balance sheet remain top priorities as we work to achieve our multiyear deleveraging goal. While tariffs present a considerable challenge in the near term, they do not detract from our long-term shareholder value creation opportunity.

最後，在我們努力實現多年去槓桿目標的過程中，強勁的現金轉換和加強我們的資產負債表仍然是首要任務。雖然關稅在短期內帶來了相當大的挑戰，但它並不會損害我們長期為股東創造價值的機會。

We believe we are making the right adjustments to the company that are strategically designed to position us for sustained long-term growth, margin expansion, and value creation.

我們相信，我們正在對公司進行正確的策略調整，以使我們實現長期持續成長、利潤率擴大和價值創造。

With that, I will now return the call to Don.

說完這些，我現在就回電給唐。

Thank you, Pat. As you heard this morning, we are committed to continuing to make meaningful progress across our top priorities: accelerating our growth culture to serve our end users and customers, generating cash and strengthening our balance sheet, and progressing the transformation to support our long-term margin journey.

謝謝你，帕特。正如您今天早上所聽到的，我們致力於繼續在我們的首要任務上取得有意義的進展：加速我們的成長文化以服務我們的最終用戶和客戶，產生現金並加強我們的資產負債表，並推進轉型以支持我們的長期利潤之旅。

While we don't know the ultimate trade policy outcome, by thoughtfully preparing and being pragmatic in our decision-making, we believe we can successfully manage through the changing environment. We believe the actions we are taking today are positioning the company to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder returns.

雖然我們不知道最終的貿易政策結果，但透過深思熟慮的準備和務實的決策，我們相信我們能夠成功應對不斷變化的環境。我們相信，我們今天採取的行動將使公司能夠實現可持續的長期股東回報。

We are now ready for Q&A. Dennis?

我們現在準備好進行問答。丹尼斯？

Thanks, Don. Shannon, we can now start Q&A, please. Thank you.

謝謝，唐。香農，我們現在可以開始問答了。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員指示） Jeffrey Sprague，Vertical Research Partners。

Hey, thank you. Good morning. Don, Chris, a little surprising -- actually, fairly surprising that Mexico is only one-third USMCA-compliant. I wonder if you could kind of go through why that is, how quickly you can rectify that. And the Rest of World tariffs at 10% seems a little low relative to my quick check. But maybe you could touch on that also why you only have 10% on that other bucket.

嘿，謝謝你。早安.唐，克里斯，有點令人驚訝——實際上，相當令人驚訝的是，墨西哥只有三分之一符合 USMCA。我想知道您是否可以解釋為什麼會發生這種情況，以及您能多快糾正這種情況。而根據我的快速檢查，世界其他地區 10% 的關稅似乎有點低。但也許你也可以談談為什麼你在另一個桶子上只佔 10%。

Okay. So good morning, Jeff. And I'll let Chris take the first part. And, Pat, you want to take the second part?

好的。早安，傑夫。我會讓克里斯負責第一部分。派特，你想拍第二部嗎？

Morning, Jeff. So as far as USMCA compliance, as we stated in the call, we're a little bit below one-third right now. And what I'd say is that as we transitioned from the original NAFTA to USMCA, there were nuances in qualification that at the time weren't worth the cost-benefit trade-off.

早安，傑夫。就 USMCA 合規性而言，正如我們在電話會議中所述，我們目前的合規率略低於三分之一。我想說的是，當我們從最初的北美自由貿易協定過渡到美國墨西哥灣協定時，資格方面存在一些細微差別，當時不值得進行成本效益權衡。

They're fairly straightforward. And we're operationalizing plans to get a much higher percentage of those revenues or imports USMCA-qualified. So it's an ongoing project. It's not overly operationally complex to complete.

它們相當簡單。我們正在實施計劃，以使這些收入或進口產品中更高比例的產品符合 USMCA 的要求。所以這是一個正在進行的項目。從操作上來說，完成起來並不太複雜。

Yeah, Jeff, on the other -- what I'd say is what we try to do in the planning assumption for the balance of the year is kind of stick with the policy as we know it today instead of making a bunch of different permutations on policy.

是的，傑夫，另一方面——我想說的是，我們在年度餘額規劃假設中嘗試做的是堅持我們今天所知道的政策，而不是對政策進行一系列不同的排列組合。

And right now, for us, the Rest of World, which is about $1.5 billion-ish of US COGS, is predominantly four Southeast Asian countries make up about 75% of that $1.5 billion. And right now, the tariff rate on those specific countries and all the others in that bucket is 10%.

目前，對我們來說，世界其他地區約占美國銷貨成本的 15 億美元，其中主要是東南亞四個國家，約佔 15 億美元的 75%。目前，針對這些特定國家以及該類別中所有其他國家的關稅稅率為 10%。

So we're kind of just sticking with existing policy. Obviously, policy may shift. And as it does, we'll shift some of our priorities if merited. But right now, that's the current policy.

所以我們只是堅持現有政策。顯然，政策可能會轉變。同時，如果有必要，我們會調整一些優先事項。但目前，這就是現行政策。

Tim Wojs, Baird.

提姆·沃伊斯，貝爾德。

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for all the details. I guess, my question, just as you think about the $1.7 billion of gross kind of tariff impacts, how would you bucket what you expect to kind of offset with price, SG&A cost reductions and then facility moves? And I guess, how did you think about kind of that low single-digit kind of volume decline from a demand kind of sensitivity or elasticity perspective?

嘿，大家好。早安.感謝您提供所有詳細資訊。我想，我的問題是，正如您所考慮的 17 億美元的總關稅影響一樣，您會如何劃分預計透過價格、銷售、一般及行政費用削減和設施搬遷來抵消這些影響？我想，從需求敏感度或彈性的角度來看，您如何看待這種低個位數的銷售下降？

Yeah, Tim. So what I would say is, there's a near term and then there's the long term. I'd say, for '25, we're expecting tariff expense in '25 to hit our P&L kind of in the $1 billion-ish, plus or minus $100 million.

是的，提姆。所以我想說的是，有一個近期目標，然後還有長期目標。我想說，對於 25 年來說，我們預計關稅支出將對我們的損益造成 10 億美元左右的影響，上下浮動 1 億美元。

And the near-term mitigation -- just with the magnitude and the pace at which things have come at us, the near-term mitigation is dominated by price. And price will make up the majority of the mitigation. As our script and the deck that came out with it, there's about $140 million delta between the tariff expense this year and the netted amount. And that $140 million is the $0.75.

至於近期的緩解－就事態發展的規模和速度而言，近期的緩解將由價格決定。而價格將佔緩解措施的大部分。根據我們的腳本和隨附的演示文稿，今年的關稅支出與淨額之間存在約 1.4 億美元的差額。而這 1.4 億美元就是 0.75 美元。

In terms of how we expect to offset the volume hit, that's going to be mostly through SG&A expense management. We're going to have incremental SG&A expense management that it's probably in the $125 million, plus or minus $25 million this year.

就我們預期如何抵銷銷售衝擊而言，主要將透過銷售、一般及行政費用管理來實現。我們將增加銷售、一般和行政費用管理，今年的金額可能在 1.25 億美元左右，上下浮動 2,500 萬美元。

As we go forward from this year, obviously, we'll be working to drive the tariff expense out of our P&L to the greatest extent possible, as quickly as possible with supply chain moves. And we think we can get away from COGS -- China COGS for the US, mostly -- most of that done within about two years' time.

從今年開始，我們顯然會努力透過供應鏈的轉移，盡快、最大程度地將關稅費用從我們的損益表中剔除。我們認為，我們可以擺脫銷貨成本（主要是美國銷貨成本）——其中大部分可以在大約兩年的時間內完成。

In terms of volume, as you mentioned, the planning assumption does have a full-year enterprise-wide volume hit that's a little bit more than 2% or around USD400 million, which might sound light. But that's a full-year global volume.

就交易量而言，正如您所提到的，規劃假設確實會對全年整個企業的銷售量造成略高於 2% 或約 4 億美元的衝擊，這聽起來可能很輕。但這是全年的全球產量。

When you put that in the US, that's 4%-plus -- kind of 4% to 5%, probably closer to 4% for the full year in the US. But on a back-half basis, you're getting to high single-digit volume hit in the US. And what I would tell you is, I'm not quite sure we have a model that tells us with precision, elasticity under these circumstances.

如果放在美國，那就是 4% 以上——大概是 4% 到 5%，可能接近美國全年的 4%。但從下半年來看，美國的銷售量將達到高個位數。我想告訴你的是，我不太確定我們是否有一個模型可以告訴我們在這種情況下的精確度和彈性。

What we tried to bake in was some of the early-year DIY softness we've seen and an expectation that under the current circumstances, that's going to continue. Anticipate a little bit of the weight of a higher 10-year treasury bond on the US housing market.

我們試圖融入年初看到的一些 DIY 疲軟現象，並預期在當前情況下，這種現象將會持續下去。預計10年期公債價格上漲將對美國房地產市場產生一定影響。

And then some of the disruption that's certain to arise as retailers decide in these very early days, how to navigate tariffs and whether to take full shipments of China goods right now. So that's really what that volume assumes. It's pretty considerable volume. But I wouldn't peg it to a precise elasticity model or a strong-form macro conclusion that presumes a recession.

然後，在零售商決定如何應對關稅以及是否立即接收全部中國商品時，肯定會出現一些混亂。這正是該卷所假設的。其數量相當可觀。但我不會將其與精確的彈性模型或假設經濟衰退的強烈形式宏觀結論掛鉤。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. I just wanted to home in a little bit on the sort of the phasing through the year, I suppose, of that $140 million net headwind from tariffs that you just mentioned are dialed into the guide. How does that differ maybe from the phasing of that $1 billion gross headwind in the P&L?

嗨，早安。我只是想稍微詳細地介紹一下今年分階段實施的情況，您剛才提到的 1.4 億美元關稅淨逆差已經納入指南。這與損益表中 10 億美元總逆風的分階段實施有何不同？

And maybe, Pat, sort of allied to that, from the outside, it's a little bit confusing, sort of the flows of LIFO accounting plus the fact you had a lot of low-cost inventory pre the tariff hikes. So kind of how are those playing out, and what does that mean for your free cash flow phasing? I think you're guiding for about $1 billion of free cash generation in Q2 to Q4 this year. Thank you.

帕特，也許與此相關，從外部來看，這有點令人困惑，有點像後進先出會計的流程，再加上在關稅上調之前你有很多低成本庫存的事實。那麼這些情況是如何發生的，這對您的自由現金流分階段意味著什麼？我認為您預計今年第二季至第四季的自由現金產生量約為 10 億美元。謝謝。

Yeah, Julian, there's definitely going to be some unusual pressure to the second and the third quarter, in particular, the second quarter. I think, again, we're going to be focused on serving our customers, and our customers are navigating this in real time as well.

是的，朱利安，第二季和第三季肯定會面臨一些不尋常的壓力，尤其是第二季。我認為，我們將再次專注於服務我們的客戶，我們的客戶也在即時地應對這一點。

But as best we can tell, we do expect some shipment softness in the back part of the second quarter. And we do expect, because of LIFO accounting, a pretty heavy tariff expense burden in the P&L in the second quarter. And so our -- likely our second quarter on a pretax operating earnings basis is probably positive, but only slightly so. And that would be our expectation.

但據我們所知，我們確實預期第二季後半段出貨量會出現一些疲軟。而我們確實預期，由於後進先出會計，第二季的損益表中關稅費用負擔會相當重。因此，我們第二季的稅前營業利潤可能為正，但幅度很小。這正是我們的期望。

As we go through the year, even in a normal year, our cash flow is heavily weighted towards the latter third of the year. And I expect that to be roughly the same just in the sense that that will be about the point in time when price increases fully catch up to tariff expense.

隨著時間的推移，即使在正常年份，我們的現金流也主要集中在後三分之一。我預計，這將大致相同，因為那時價格上漲幅度將完全趕上關稅支出。

What will be happening in a cash flow perspective is by about mid-May, plus or minus a couple of weeks, we'll be at kind of the full monthly cash expense of those tariffs. So kind of monthly run rate of that $1.7 billion will be fully upon us by about mid-May.

從現金流角度來看，到 5 月中旬左右，我們將達到這些關稅的每月全額現金支出。因此，到 5 月中旬左右，我們將完全實現每月 17 億美元的營運金額。

And pricing in total anticipated to be fully in place by the early part of the third quarter. So from a cash flow perspective, it probably takes us until the early days of the third quarter to have pricing matching tariff expense. But I would expect that the back part of the year, in particular the fourth quarter, to be from this point forward in the year, the strongest EPS in cash quarter by far.

預計整體定價將在第三季初完全到位。因此，從現金流的角度來看，我們可能要到第三季初才能確定與關稅費用相符的定價。但我預計，今年下半年，特別是第四季度，將成為迄今為止現金季度中最強勁的每股盈餘。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Morning.

早晨。

So you mentioned putting through high single-digit pricing increases at this point with your retail partners. The math implies that you need roughly, call it, $850 million or so in pricing for the year just to offset and get to that net tariff impact.

所以您提到此時要與零售合作夥伴一起實現高個位數的價格上漲。數學計算表明，你需要大約 8.5 億美元左右的年度定價才能抵消並獲得淨關稅影響。

So how much -- what is high single digit to your retail partners? How much pricing has actually come through? And then maybe just give us a little bit more color on how those conversations are going and your confidence in your ability to get the additional pricing as we progress through the year.

那麼對於您的零售合作夥伴來說，高個位數是多少呢？實際定價是多少？然後，也許您可以向我們詳細介紹這些談話的進展情況，以及您對在今年取得額外定價的能力的信心。

Hey, Joe. This is Chris. So I'll start with the first price increase, which, as we mentioned, is live and is showing up on the shelves as we speak. And that was, and across the board, high single-digit price increase and would be expected to be that way for the balance of the year, obviously. So that's going to completely flow through.

嘿，喬。我是克里斯。因此，我將從第一次提價開始，正如我們所提到的，價格上漲是即時的，並且會在我們說話時顯示在貨架上。整體而言，價格漲幅都比較高，顯然，預計今年全年價格仍將維持這種水準。所以這將完全順利進行。

But as I would transition to the second part of the conversation, which is what next, is that I think it's important to take a step back and understand that this is -- the -- as Pat mentioned, the speed and magnitude of the change is based on trade policy makes pricing something that we have to do out of the gate.

但是，當我轉到談話的第二部分，也就是接下來的內容時，我認為重要的是退一步並理解這一點——正如帕特所提到的，變化的速度和幅度是基於貿易政策的，這使得定價成為我們必須做的事情。

As we look at the industry dynamics, certainly, it's not -- we're not alone. And actually, as we take a look at our current footprint and our 60% of our volume being North America based and only 15% coming from China with the highest tariff burdens, we feel that we are in an advantaged position. And we will continue to extend that advantage as we further mitigate.

當我們觀察產業動態時，我們當然並不孤單。事實上，看看我們目前的足跡，我們 60% 的銷售來自北美，只有 15% 來自關稅負擔最高的中國，我們覺得自己處於有利地位。隨著我們進一步緩解壓力，我們將繼續擴大這一優勢。

Along those lines, we're in the early stages of conversations with our customers. And our collective goal is to make sure that we work together to have an optimal selection for our end users through this whole thing. And given the flexibility and footprint that we have right now, we feel that we're in a very good position to do that with the lowest tariff burden possible.

依照這樣的思路，我們正處於與客戶對話的早期階段。我們的共同目標是確保我們共同努力，在整個過程中為我們的最終用戶提供最佳選擇。鑑於我們目前擁有的靈活性和影響力，我們認為我們完全有能力以盡可能低的關稅負擔來實現這一目標。

So we're working not only on kind of the ways that we can set up our selection for our customers, the ways that we can mitigate effectively and quickly, but then also keeping an eye on what we need to do for our end users and as Pat said, being judicious about the long term. Our retailers understand that this has been something that has taken all of us by storm, if you will, with the speed of it.

因此，我們不僅在研究如何為客戶設定選擇，如何有效、快速地緩解問題，而且還在關注我們需要為最終用戶做些什麼，正如帕特所說，要對長遠發展保持明智。我們的零售商明白，這件事以它的速度震驚了我們所有人。

And we're working certainly with them hand in hand and want to make sure that we collectively, in front of us, keep the end user and the purchaser of those products in front of us to make sure that they have what they need for their applications. Because this is -- at the end of the day, this is part of the beauty of this business and why it's such a great business.

我們當然會與他們攜手合作，並希望確保我們共同將這些產品的最終用戶和購買者放在我們面前，以確保他們擁有應用所需的東西。因為從根本上來說，這就是這個行業的魅力所在，也是它成為如此偉大的行業的原因。

We serve great markets, and we know that our end users need those products for the applications that they execute every day. And we're going to be there with them with our channel partners to make sure that that is the case.

我們服務於廣大市場，我們知道我們的最終用戶需要這些產品來滿足他們每天執行的應用程式。我們將與我們的通路合作夥伴一起確保情況確實如此。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. A lot of numbers here, and I obviously appreciate all the detail and the thoughtfulness. Just wanted to clarify a couple of points, I guess. If I have the math right, the second price increase would be something in the order of another mid-single-digit price increase to North America tools -- just wanted to make sure that I'm thinking about that right -- in order to get to the $850 million of price offset for the year?

謝謝。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。這裡有很多數字，我顯然很欣賞所有的細節和周到。我想，我只是想澄清幾點。如果我沒算錯的話，第二次價格上漲將相當於北美工具價格再一次上漲個位數左右——只是想確保我的想法是正確的——以便達到今年 8.5 億美元的價格補償？

And secondly, with the guidance for 2Q being positive pretax earnings, I assume, given the fact that you're not giving a number and obviously a bigger hit in the second quarter, we should be thinking about 2Q EPS being minimally positive, if that's fair to say?

其次，鑑於第二季度的稅前收益預期為正，我認為，考慮到您沒有給出具體數字，而且第二季度的衝擊顯然更大，我們應該認為第二季度的每股收益將略微為正，這樣說公平嗎？

So this is Chris. I'll start with the pricing question, and then turn it over to Pat (inaudible) that. First and foremost, we don't have, nor would it be appropriate for us to talk about, the actual price increase for Q3 that we referenced, first, because we're still working through that with our customers as we referenced.

這就是克里斯。我將從定價問題開始，然後將其交給 Pat（聽不清楚）。首先，我們沒有、也不適合談論我們提到的第三季的實際價格上漲，因為正如我們所提到的，我們仍在與客戶一起解決這個問題。

We want to make sure that we work very closely with them to make sure that we have the proper assortment. We understand what mitigation and what we're going to be able to fulfill for our end users. So there is no price increase that we've arrived at right now. The timing that you referenced is correct. But I would just, for point of view, say it's likely higher than the first price increase that we went out with.

我們希望確保與他們密切合作，以確保我們擁有合適的產品組合。我們了解需要採取哪些緩解措施以及我們能夠為最終用戶提供什麼協助。因此，目前我們還沒有達到漲價的程度。您引用的時間是正確的。但從我的角度來看，我認為這個價格可能比我們第一次漲價時的價格要高。

In terms of second quarter, Mike, I think you're right. It's going to be positive but minimally so on both pretax and after-tax earnings basis.

就第二季而言，麥克，我認為你是對的。這對於稅前和稅後收益都將是正面的影響，但影響程度有限。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Thanks, good morning. So, Pat, I think I just want to run through the intricacies of this LIFO charge in 2Q. Is it because you're LIFO and therefore, you have to basically mark-to-market the inventory on hand pre-tariffs to the tariff cost coming through the cash flow in 2Q? So that's a one-time noncash charge because of the LIFO accounting.

謝謝，早安。所以，帕特，我想我只是想在第二季度介紹一下後進先出法收費的複雜之處。是不是因為你採用的是後進先出法，所以你基本上必須按照關稅前的庫存市價來計算第二季現金流中的關稅成本？因此，由於後進先出會計，這是一次性非現金費用。

And then just my real question is, when you think about the USMCA compliance, I think we all expected it to be quite low because of the sourcing of batteries and powertronics, which largely resides today in China. So I'm just curious, how do you pivot away from China given the importance of those components to your power tools franchise?

然後我真正的問題是，當你考慮 USMCA 合規性時，我認為我們都預計它會相當低，因為電池和動力電子元件的採購目前主要在中國。所以我很好奇，考慮到這些零件對您的電動工具特許經營的重要性，您如何將業務重心從中國轉移出去？

Hey, Nigel, I'll start with LIFO. And I'll try not to take us all down a rat hole because our financials actually have both FIFO and LIFO, just to keep everyone on their toes. But in the simple terms, tariffs are an incremental unfavorable variance to standard cost of goods sold.

嘿，奈傑爾，我將從後進先出法開始。我會盡量不讓大家陷入困境，因為我們的財務實際上同時採用先進先出法和後進先出法，只是為了讓每個人都保持警惕。但簡單來說，關稅是對標準銷售成本的一個增量不利差異。

And the way our LIFO works is, every time we have a new variable that affects our cost structure, we have to anticipate that variance for the full year across the volumes we expect to buy or make for the full year. And then that total variance rolls off the balance sheet according to inventory turns.

我們的後進先出法的工作方式是，每當有新的變數影響我們的成本結構時，我們都必須根據全年預計購買或生產的數量預測全年的差異。然後，總差異根據庫存週轉率從資產負債表中轉出。

And so what's ended up happening in the second quarter is you have a balance of the year total variance for -- think of it as about 10 months of the year. LIFO variants, that will roll off according to inventory turns. And the LIFO portion of it just kind of disproportionately hits the first quarter or the second quarter, rather. And so that's the simple accounting of it, is that $1.7 billion is going into basically a COGS variance.

因此，第二季最終發生的情況是，您獲得了全年總差異的餘額 - 可以將其視為一年中的大約 10 個月。LIFO 變體，將根據庫存週轉率滾動。而後進先出法部分只是不成比例地影響了第一季或第二季。這就是簡單的會計處理，即 17 億美元基本上變成了 COGS 差異。

Nigel, this is Chris. Thanks for the question. And I think certainly, as you pointed out, the dynamic that you expressed on the -- especially the battery is the operative question. And therefore, USMCA compliance is more of an issue that we've got to sort through on the power tools side.

奈傑爾，這是克里斯。謝謝你的提問。我認為，正如您所指出的，您所表達的動態——尤其是電池問題——是一個關鍵問題。因此，在電動工具方面，我們必須解決的更多的是 USMCA 合規問題。

And what I would say is that we are -- we will continue to look at options for us in how we import, how we package, and how we marry that battery with the tool and the shipping dynamics and then the importing dynamics to make sure that we are fully USMCA-compliant and maintain our technology advantage that we have on our battery-tool combinations.

我想說的是，我們將繼續研究各種選擇，包括如何進口、如何包裝、如何將電池與工具、運輸動態以及進口動態結合起來，以確保我們完全符合 USMCA 標準並保持我們在電池-工具組合方面的技術優勢。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. I wanted to ask about customer inventory levels and specifically at some of the big retailers. And it sounds like from the commentary that you guys view those as largely normalized, but the guide does include some level of destock.

謝謝。我想詢問客戶的庫存水平，特別是一些大型零售商的庫存水平。從評論來看，你們似乎認為這些基本上已經正常化了，但該指南確實包括一定程度的去庫存。

So I guess, if any kind of color on what's in the guide around potential destock there? And then just how have those conversations gone with retailers? If we look at the January quarter, their inventories were all up across the board.

所以我想，指南中是否有關於潛在去庫存的任何資訊？那麼與零售商的對話進度如何？如果我們看一下一月份季度，他們的庫存全盤上漲。

So I guess, any view on when you think they could start destocking? Is that a Q2 risk? Is it more of a Q3 risk given there's another price increase coming from you guys in Q3? So any color on that would be appreciated. Thank you.

那麼，您認為他們什麼時候可以開始去庫存呢？這是第二季的風險嗎？鑑於你們在第三季再次提高價格，這是否意味著第三季的風險更大？因此，任何顏色都可以。謝謝。

Chris, this is Pat. I'll start, and I don't know if Chris will have anything to add. He can decide after I'm done. When we went into the year, I would say broadly, and almost at every point, inventory levels across our big customers and our customer base in general was quite normal in the scheme of things.

克里斯，這是帕特。我先開始了，我不知道克里斯是否還有什麼要補充。我做完之後他可以決定。當我們進入新的一年時，我想說，從總體上看，幾乎在每一個時間點，我們大客戶和客戶群的庫存水平總體上都是相當正常的。

I mean, we've been in an environment where I'd say they've all, for the most part, stayed at the midpoint or low side of their normal range just with the cost of short-term money, and the fact that our service levels have recovered.

我的意思是，在我們所處的環境中，我想說，由於短期資金成本以及我們的服務水平已經恢復，它們大多都停留在正常範圍的中點或低端。

I would say, for us, relative to our plan and our experience through most of the first quarter, we did have some demand strength in March that might have been associated with tariff prebuying. But for the most of the first quarter, the DIY customer was soft.

我想說，對於我們來說，相對於我們的計劃和第一季大部分時間的經驗，我們在 3 月份確實有一些需求強勁，這可能與關稅預購有關。但在第一季的大部分時間裡，DIY 客戶表現並不理想。

And as you heard in my earlier response to the volume question, I'd say of the $400 million-ish versus prior year of volume-out assumption we have in our planning assumption, probably half of that is just carrying forward some of that soft DIY trend and in anticipation of what the higher tenure will do to the US housing market.

正如您在我之前對數量問題的回答中所聽到的，我想說，在我們的規劃假設中，與上一年相比，4 億美元的出貨量假設中，可能只有一半是延續了部分疲軟的 DIY 趨勢，並且預期更高的使用期限將對美國房地產市場產生什麼影響。

I suppose that at certain retailers could mean those that have disproportionate DIY volumes, some slight inventory reset. But I'd say that that would be pretty focused to product lines and retailers. I don't think that's a broad-based dynamic.

我認為，對於某些零售商來說，這可能意味著那些 DIY 量不成比例的零售商，會進行一些輕微的庫存重置。但我想說的是，這將主要集中在產品線和零售商。我認為這不是一個廣泛的動態。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Probably enough LIFO questions to get you to switch to fully FIFO. But just a clarification on if you could size what that LIFO headwind is to pretax earnings in Q2.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。可能有足夠多的 LIFO 問題讓您切換到完全 FIFO。但您是否可以澄清一下後進先出法對第二季度稅前收益的影響有多大。

And then bigger picture, just when you sized the $1.7 billion annualized gross impact, if you address the strategies that are underway, can you size the opportunity through what you can do on USMCA and getting higher coverage there, what a move of that 15% of China would mean? And so based on those strategies, what that $1.7 billion would be going to?

然後從更大的角度來看，就在您估算出 17 億美元的年化總影響時，如果您解決正在進行的戰略，您是否可以通過在 USMCA 上可以做的事情並在那裡獲得更高的覆蓋率來衡量機會，那麼中國 15% 的舉動意味著什麼？那麼根據這些策略，這 17 億美元將會用於什麼地方呢？

I'll start on the first one and then maybe ask for some clarification on the second one. On the first one, Joe, I would say the LIFO impact to the second quarter is probably in the $200 million to $250 million range, $100 million -- $200 million to $250 million.

我將從第一個問題開始，然後可能會要求澄清第二個問題。關於第一季度，喬，我想說後進先出法對第二季的影響可能在 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間，1 億美元到 2 億至 2.5 億美元之間。

And really, the dynamic I should have said on the earlier response is you're getting that before you're getting all the price. And that's why it's a more dramatic effect in the second quarter than it is in the third and the fourth quarter.

事實上，我之前的回應中應該說的是，在你得到全部價格之前，你就已經得到了它。這就是為什麼它在第二季比在第三季和第四季產生更顯著的影響。

When we talk about USMCA -- and Chris or Don may add to this -- there's a twofold benefit to addressing USMCA compliance, right? As we stated earlier in the call and in the Q&A, we're about one-third USMCA-compliant from our COGS from the Mexico to the US today. There's the obvious benefit of then reducing the tariff burden from Mexico at 25%.

當我們談論 USMCA 時——克里斯或唐可能會補充這一點——解決 USMCA 合規問題有雙重好處，對嗎？正如我們之前在電話會議和問答中所說的那樣，目前我們從墨西哥到美國的銷貨成本大約有三分之一符合 USMCA 的規定。那麼將墨西哥的關稅負擔降低 25% 顯然是有好處的。

But we have a lot of great assets and capacity in Mexico. And so the extent to which we dual source already products that we can move more of the volume to Mexico or to the extent with some modest equipment moving or capability building in Mexico, take volumes that aren't dual source today. So there's a twofold benefit to the USMCA compliance angle. And it would be a big part of us mitigating what we expect to be half or more of the tariff burden over two years.

但我們在墨西哥擁有大量優質資產和產能。因此，就我們目前採用雙重來源生產的產品而言，我們可以將更多的產量轉移到墨西哥，或者透過在墨西哥進行一些適度的設備轉移或能力建設，來獲取目前非雙重來源的產量。因此，從 USMCA 合規角度來看，它具有雙重好處。這對我們在未來兩年內減輕預計一半或更多的關稅負擔起到了很大作用。

Nicole DeBlase, Deutsche Bank.

妮可‧德布拉斯 (Nicole DeBlase)，德意志銀行。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to ask on the SG&A savings plan. Any help with respect to quarterly cadence, like how quickly you can start to take those actions? And I guess, if demand weakened if we were to go into more of a recessionary environment as all of this unfolds, do you have more that you could do on the cost side, whether it's COGS or SG&A? You guys have just been focused on cost for some time now. Thank you.

只是想詢問銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 節省計劃。對於季度節奏有什麼幫助嗎，例如您多快可以開始採取這些行動？我想，如果隨著這一切的展開，我們進入了更嚴重的衰退環境，需求減弱，您是否可以在成本方面做更多的事情，無論是銷貨成本還是銷售、一般和行政費用？你們最近一直關注成本問題。謝謝。

Yeah, Nicole, I would say, I would be modeling it roughly flat across the three quarters. The levers will be a little bit different across the three quarters. It will be close to that approximation. I mean, maybe slightly biased to the second half, but I don't think by large amounts.

是的，妮可，我想說，我會將它建模為橫跨四分之三的大致平坦部分。三個季度的槓桿會略有不同。它將接近該近似值。我的意思是，可能稍微偏向下半年，但我認為偏向程度不大。

And as our planning assumption and the scenario guidance suggest, I mean, yes, we do have more levers to pull. But as we work through this year and through '26 and beyond, we're going to have a twofold focus. One is preserving the growth investments that we think are critical to building the business and driving growth over the long term, and everywhere possible being as efficient in supporting the business in the back part of the enterprise, so that we're maximizing the amount we can invest that's customer-facing and then keeping our total expense base sound relative to the volume of the enterprise.

正如我們的規劃假設和情境指導所表明的那樣，是的，我們確實有更多的槓桿可以發揮。但當我們在今年、26年及以後的工作中，我們將有雙重關注。一是保留我們認為對建立業務和推動長期成長至關重要的成長投資，並儘可能高效地支持企業後端的業務，以便我們最大限度地增加面向客戶的投資額，並保持我們的總費用基礎與企業規模相適應。

The only thing I would add as it relates to your supply chain question is that as we've been stating all along through the transformation, what we have been concentrating on doing is being more flexible, more efficient, and then also adjusting our footprint to reflect a more focused company. That -- there's a lot more that we will continue to do there.

關於您的供應鏈問題，我唯一想補充的是，正如我們在整個轉型過程中一直強調的那樣，我們一直致力於提高靈活性和效率，同時調整我們的足跡，以反映出我們是一家更專注的公司。我們也將繼續做更多的事情。

And it's actually what we're doing in the mitigation front is in support of and in line with that. So not only is there more that will support us through this time. But it will ultimately be something that certainly moves us -- will continue moving us along on the journey that we had out.

事實上，我們在緩解方面所做的努力就是支持並符合這一點。因此，不僅有更多的力量能夠支持我們度過這段時期。但它最終會成為一種激勵我們前進的動力——會繼續推動我們前進。

And we do feel confident about the ability to continue on towards that 35%-plus gross margin journey. It's just that there are some things that we now have to adjust as we prioritize some of the mitigation efforts. But it's not anything that would be counter to that supply chain strategy.

我們確實有信心能夠繼續實現 35% 以上的毛利率。只是，在我們優先考慮一些緩解措施時，我們現在必須調整一些事情。但這並不會違背供應鏈策略。

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the call back over to Dennis Lange for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給丹尼斯·蘭格，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, Shannon. We'd like to thank everyone again for their time and participation on the call. Obviously, please contact me if you have further questions. Thank you.

謝謝，香農。我們再次感謝大家在電話會議上付出的時間和參與。顯然，如果您還有其他問題，請與我聯絡。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。