史丹利百得 (SWK) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

史丹利百得 (Stanley Black & Decker) 最近舉行了一次網路直播,討論其 2024 年的財務表現。在網路直播中,他們強調了重點關注領域的進展,例如工具和戶外部門的收入成長以及成本節約舉措。該公司已設定了2025年實現中等個位數有機成長的目標,並計劃透過供應鏈調整來減輕潛在的關稅影響。

除了關注收入成長之外,史丹利百得還優先考慮提高利潤率、創造現金以及投資永續成長。他們非常重視創新和市場激活,並認識到在競爭激烈的市場中保持領先地位的重要性。該公司有信心能夠應對關稅挑戰並繼續實現其長期財務目標。

整體而言,史丹利百得致力於持續的成功和發展,策略重點是短期和長期財務目標。他們致力於創新和市場適應,使他們在行業中脫穎而出,並為未來的成功奠定了基礎。透過保持敏捷和主動調整,公司能夠很好地應對挑戰並利用市場機會。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the fourth quarter and full year 2024 Stanley Black & Decker earnings conference call. My name is Shannon, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

    歡迎參加 Stanley Black & Decker 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我叫香農 (Shannon),今天我將擔任您的電話接線生。(操作員指示)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。

  • I will now turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Dennis Lange. Mr. Lange, you may begin.

    現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁丹尼斯·蘭格。蘭格先生,你可以開始啦。

  • Dennis Lange - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Dennis Lange - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for Stanley Black & Decker's 2024 fourth quarter and full year webcast. Here today, in addition to myself, is Don Allan, President and CEO; Chris Nelson, COO, EVP and President of Tools and Outdoor; and Pat Hallinan, EVP and CFO.

    謝謝你,香農。大家早安,感謝您收看 Stanley Black & Decker 2024 年第四季和全年網路直播。今天在場的除了我之外,還有總裁兼執行長唐艾倫 (Don Allan);克里斯‧尼爾森 (Chris Nelson),營運長、執行副總裁兼工具與戶外用品總裁;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Pat Hallinan。

  • Our earnings release, which was issued earlier this morning and a supplemental presentation, which we will refer to, are available on the IR section of our website. A replay of this morning's webcast will also be available beginning at 11 AM today. This morning, Don, Chris, and Pat will review our 2024 fourth quarter and full year results and various other matters followed by a Q&A session. Consistent with prior webcast, we are going to be sticking with just one question per caller.

    我們的收益報告(已於今天早上發布)和我們將參考的補充報告可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。今天上午 11 點開始還可以重播今天早上的網路直播。今天上午,唐、克里斯和帕特將回顧我們 2024 年第四季和全年業績以及其他各種事項,然後進行問答環節。與先前的網路廣播一致,我們將堅持每個呼叫者只提出一個問題。

  • And as we normally do, we will be making some forward-looking statements during the call based on our current views. Such statements are based on assumptions of future events that may not prove to be accurate, and as such, they involve risk and uncertainty. It's therefore possible that the actual results may materially differ from any forward-looking statements that we might make today. We direct you to the cautionary statements in the 8-K that we filed with our press release and our most recent 34 Act filing.

    像往常一樣,我們將根據目前的觀點在電話會議中做出一些前瞻性的陳述。這些陳述是基於對未來事件的假設,但這些假設可能並不準確,因此涉及風險和不確定性。因此,實際結果可能與我們今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。請注意,我們在新聞稿和最新的 34 號法案文件中提交了 8-K 文件中的警告聲明。

  • Additionally, we may also reference non-GAAP financial measures during the call. For applicable reconciliations to the related GAAP financial measure and additional information, please refer to the appendix of the supplemental presentation and the corresponding press release, which are available on our website under the IR section.

    此外,我們也可能在電話會議中參考非公認會計準則財務指標。有關相關 GAAP 財務指標的適用對帳和其他信息,請參閱補充報告的附錄和相應的新聞稿,可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。

  • I'll now turn the call over to our President and CEO, Don Allan.

    現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長唐艾倫 (Don Allan)。

  • Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Dennis, and good morning, everyone. I know many of you are ready to dig into 2025 but it's important to first mark the significant progress we achieved in 2024. We successfully advanced each of our key focus areas during 2024 by delivering continued gross margin expansion, solid free cash flow generation, and a stronger balance sheet, all while making new investments aimed at driving sustainable market share growth. The progress we achieved was notable in the face of a mixed macroeconomic backdrop and is a testament to our team's relentless pursuit of our vision created 2.5 years ago.

    謝謝你,丹尼斯,大家早安。我知道你們中的許多人已經準備好迎接 2025 年,但首先重要的是標記我們在 2024 年取得的重大進展。2024 年,我們透過持續擴大毛利率、創造穩健的自由現金流和更強勁的資產負債表,成功推進了每個重點關注領域,同時進行了旨在推動可持續市場份額增長的新投資。在宏觀經濟背景好壞參半的情況下,我們取得的進展是顯著的,證明了我們團隊對兩年半前提出的願景的不懈追求。

  • Together, the leadership team and I are revitalizing the organization to be centered around our brands and end users, and we are reshaping the cost structure to be more efficient in the back office processes while investing in areas close to our end users and channel customers to drive sustainable share gain. The positive impact on our performance thus far is clear. In 2024, we overcame a soft consumer and DIY environment to deliver full year revenues of $15.4 billion, which was flat on an organic basis versus many markets that retracted, especially in the back half of the year.

    我和領導團隊正在共同振興組織,使其以我們的品牌和最終用戶為中心,我們正在重塑成本結構,以提高後台流程的效率,同時投資於靠近我們的最終用戶和渠道客戶的領域,以推動可持續的份額增長。到目前為止,這對我們表現的正面影響是顯而易見的。2024 年,我們克服了疲軟的消費者和 DIY 環境,實現了 154 億美元的全年收入,與許多萎縮的市場(尤其是在下半年)相比,這筆收入在有機基礎上持平。

  • We are encouraged by the growth and share gain progression in DEWALT, which grew mid-single digits organically in 2024, a sign that our investments and focus is translating into positive top line momentum. Additionally, standout organic growth of 22% in aerospace fastening also contributed to our overall revenue results. As we completed year two of our transformational journey, we are proud to have delivered on key financial milestones including adjusted gross margin greater than 31% in the fourth quarter and 30% for the full year.

    我們對 DEWALT 的成長和份額成長感到鼓舞,該公司在 2024 年實現了中等個位數的有機成長,這表明我們的投資和重點正在轉化為積極的營收成長勢頭。此外,航空航太緊固件領域突出的22%有機成長也為我們的整體收入做出了貢獻。隨著我們完成轉型之旅的第二年,我們很自豪地實現了關鍵的財務里程碑,包括第四季度調整後毛利率超過 31% 以及全年調整後毛利率超過 30%。

  • The full year margin expansion of 400 basis points was primarily driven by our reshaped supply chain and ongoing strategic initiatives. We see more opportunity ahead as we work to complete our transformational cost savings program in 2025 and push to our long-term target of greater than 35% adjusted gross margin. This significant progress related to stabilizing revenue and executing our cost transformational program while making ongoing growth investments resulted in full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $1.6 billion, with margin of 10.1%, which is an expansion of 290 basis points as compared to 2023.

    全年利潤率擴大 400 個基點主要得益於我們重塑的供應鏈和持續的策略性舉措。隨著我們努力在 2025 年完成轉型成本節約計畫並努力實現調整後毛利率超過 35% 的長期目標,我們看到了未來更多的機會。這項重大進展與穩定收入和執行成本轉型計畫以及持續進行成長投資有關,導致 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 為 16 億美元,利潤率為 10.1%,與 2023 年相比擴大了 290 個基點。

  • This EBITDA outcome translated into full year adjusted earnings per share of $4.36, demonstrating significant growth over 2023 EPS. Our earnings growth and working capital efficiency improvements, both contributed to free cash flow of approximately $750 million. This strong free cash flow generation plus the proceeds from our infrastructure business divestiture supported $1.1 billion of debt reduction in 2024 and solid progress towards achieving our leverage targets.

    這項 EBITDA 結果轉化為全年調整後每股收益 4.36 美元,較 2023 年每股收益顯著成長。我們的獲利成長和營運資本效率的提高,均貢獻了約 7.5 億美元的自由現金流。強勁的自由現金流加上我們基礎設施業務剝離的收益支持了我們在 2024 年減少 11 億美元的債務,並在實現我們的槓桿率目標方面取得了堅實的進展。

  • Our strong execution in 2024 was the result of organizational alignment and focus, which helped us meet or exceed our goals. I want to thank our organization for their relentless focus and dedication to world-class service of our end users and channel customers while achieving these financial results. Our 2024 performance in combination with the activation of our growth culture across the company is setting a strong foundation for the next chapter of growth for Stanley Black & Decker. We are targeting over the midterm top line organic growth of mid-single digits in a low single-digit market with adjusted gross margins of 35%-plus. We believe that by continuing to advance against these measures, it will contribute to successfully achieving the adjusted EBITDA target of $2.5 billion that we shared at our recent Capital Markets Day.

    我們在 2024 年的強勁執行力是組織協調和專注的結果,這幫助我們實現或超越了我們的目標。我要感謝我們的組織在實現這些財務表現的同時,堅持不懈地關注並致力於為我們的最終用戶和通路客戶提供世界一流的服務。我們 2024 年的業績與整個公司成長文化的活化相結合,為史丹利百得的下一章成長奠定了堅實的基礎。我們的目標是在中期實現中個位數的營收有機成長,在低個位數的市場中,調整後的毛利率達到 35% 以上。我們相信,透過繼續推進這些措施,將有助於成功實現我們在最近的資本市場日分享的 25 億美元調整後 EBITDA 目標。

  • Now, turning to performance in the fourth quarter. We delivered $3.7 billion of revenue, flat versus prior year, comprised of a solid 3% organic revenue growth, which was offset by a 2-point impact from the infrastructure business divestiture and deploying of currency headwinds. Our adjusted gross margin was 31.2%, up 140 basis points versus the fourth quarter of last year, mainly due to our global cost-reduction program. These revenue and gross margin outcomes net of our continued funding of growth investments designed to deliver future sustainable market share gains resulted in adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.2%, which is up 80 basis points versus the prior year. This fourth quarter EBITDA result translated into adjusted earnings per share of $1.49 for the quarter.

    現在來談談第四季的表現。我們實現了 37 億美元的收入,與上年持平,其中有機收入穩步增長 3%,但基礎設施業務剝離和貨幣逆風部署帶來的 2 個百分點的影響抵消了這一增長。我們的調整後毛利率為 31.2%,較去年第四季上升 140 個基點,主要歸功於我們的全球成本削減計畫。這些收入和毛利率結果扣除我們持續為實現未來可持續市場份額增長而進行的增長投資後,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 10.2%,比上年增長了 80 個基點。第四季的 EBITDA 結果轉化為本季調整後每股收益 1.49 美元。

  • Our free cash flow was $565 million in the fourth quarter, an outstanding performance that continues to support our ongoing capital allocation priorities, namely organic investments, shareholder dividends and debt reduction. Due to this weekend's announcement and ongoing shifts over the last two days, we decided to provide you our base case view for 2025, which excludes impact of any tariffs and demonstrates our underlying earnings power.

    我們的第四季自由現金流為 5.65 億美元,這一出色的表現繼續支持我們正在進行的資本配置重點,即有機投資、股東分紅和減債。由於本週末的公告和過去兩天的持續變化,我們決定為您提供 2025 年的基本情況觀點,其中不包括任何關稅的影響並展示了我們潛在的盈利能力。

  • In addition, to help you size what we may have to navigate related to tariffs, we will provide cost of goods sold information based on country of origin for our US businesses, which will allow all of you to correlate with the proposed policy the President announced over the weekend or how it evolves over the coming days or weeks. This is a dynamic environment. But as we shared with you last year, we have developed a plan that we are deploying with speed. We believe we can mitigate tariffs with supply chain repositioning and price but do not believe it is something that will throw us off our long-term growth and EBITDA aspirations.

    此外,為了幫助您評估我們可能需要應對的與關稅相關的問題,我們將根據美國業務的原產國提供銷售成本信息,這將使大家能夠將其與總統上週末宣布的擬議政策或其在未來幾天或幾週內的發展情況聯繫起來。這是一個動態的環境。但正如我們去年與大家分享的那樣,我們已經制定了一項計劃並正在迅速部署。我們相信,透過供應鏈重新定位和價格,我們能夠降低關稅,但不相信這會阻礙我們的長期成長和 EBITDA 目標。

  • We've successfully navigated this before and have a new seasoned management team in place to enable success once again. Our goal is to ensure that as the President and his administration works to accelerate growth in the United States and negotiate better trade deals with our country's major trading partners, we are positioned for success as the only significant US-based manufacturer in our industry. We continue to engage with the President and his new administration to support them in achieving their goals in these areas while we navigate the next several months to minimize the impact of Stanley Black & Decker as we exit 2025.

    我們之前已經成功度過了這一難關,並且已經組建了一支新的經驗豐富的管理團隊來再次取得成功。我們的目標是確保在總統及其政府努力加速美國經濟成長並與我國主要貿易夥伴談判達成更好的貿易協議的同時,我們能夠作為本行業唯一重要的美國製造商獲得成功。我們將繼續與總統及其新政府保持合作,支持他們實現這些領域的目標,同時我們將在接下來的幾個月中努力在 2025 年結束時將史丹利百得 (Stanley Black & Decker) 的影響降至最低。

  • The base case pre-tariff planning assumption for 2025 is adjusted EPS of $5.25, plus or minus $0.50. With $650 million to $850 million of free cash flow. During our October earnings call, we were among the first to describe the demand environment as softer for likely longer with an expectation that the first half of 2025 would likely remain choppy or sluggish. Three months later, we have seen little evidence to change that view and given the indicators that we do see several end markets may not improve until 2026.

    2025 年關稅前規劃的基本假設是調整後每股收益為 5.25 美元,上下浮動 0.50 美元。擁有 6.5 億至 8.5 億美元的自由現金流。在 10 月的財報電話會議上,我們是第一批將需求環境描述為可能持續更長時間的疲軟的人之一,我們預計 2025 年上半年可能會保持波動或低迷。三個月後,我們幾乎沒有看到任何證據可以改變這種觀點,而且根據我們的指標,我們確實看到幾個終端市場可能要到 2026 年才會改善。

  • Interest rate cuts in 2024 have had very little impact as mortgages continue to be well above 6%. Therefore, as we think about our base case operating environment, our current perspective on the market outlook assumes that aggregated market demand is stable and expected to be relatively flat year-over-year. We believe this is consistent with how we exited 2024 and this underpins the midpoint of our base case earnings per share range.

    由於抵押貸款利率仍遠高於 6%,2024 年的降息影響甚微。因此,當我們考慮基本營運環境時,我們目前對市場前景的看法是,整體市場需求是穩定的,預計將比去年同期相對持平。我們相信,這與我們退出 2024 年的方式一致,並支撐了我們基本每股盈餘範圍的中點。

  • In the back half of 2024, we delivered a 0.5 of organic growth. Our plan in the first half of 2025 and the full year assumes modestly stronger organic growth. We expect price and our company specific opportunities such as our continued investment behind our core brand and DEWALT, Stanley and Craftsman to serve our end users combined with targeted market activation initiatives to drive low single digit organic growth. We believe there's potential for a market driven positive inflection to occur later in '25 but this is not reflected in our midpoint base case.

    2024 年下半年,我們實現了 0.5 的有機成長。我們的 2025 年上半年和全年計畫假設自然成長略有增強。我們預計價格和我們公司的特定機會,例如我們對我們的核心品牌和 DEWALT、Stanley 和 Craftsman 的持續投資,以服務我們的最終用戶,結合有針對性的市場激活舉措,以推動低個位數的有機增長。我們相信,市場有可能在 25 年後期出現積極拐點,但這並未反映在我們的中點基準情境中。

  • Stepping back from the short-term horizon, the long-term market trends are very attractive and the outlook for our industries remains incredibly positive. There is a large and growing gap in the North American residential housing inventory, which supports the need for increase in housing starts. In addition, existing home turnover remains at cyclically depressed levels. In fact, existing home sales in 2024 fell to their lowest level since 1995, which just magnifies this point. And with the average age of a US house at roughly 40 years old, we believe homeowners will reengage in an increased level of repair and renovation once interest rates decline to lower levels.

    從短期來看,長期市場趨勢非常有吸引力,我們行業的前景仍然非常樂觀。北美住宅庫存缺口很大且不斷擴大,支持了增加住房開工的需求。此外,現房成交量仍處於週期性低迷的水平。事實上,2024 年現房銷售跌至 1995 年以來的最低水平,這進一步凸顯了這一點。鑑於美國房屋的平均使用年限約為40年,我們相信,一旦利率降至較低水平,房主將重新進行更大程度的修繕和翻新。

  • As construction activity accelerates over the long term, the trades people that we serve will benefit, and they will need our tools to help get the job done. We serve labor-constrained industries and our innovations are designed to deliver enhanced productivity with significant safety features. We are prudently investing across our portfolio to fuel end user-inspired innovation and differentiated market activation designed to capture the share gain opportunities we anticipate in the near term and over the long-term horizon.

    隨著建築活動的長期加速,我們服務的行業人士將受益,他們將需要我們的工具來幫助完成工作。我們服務於勞動力受限的行業,我們的創新旨在提高生產力並實現顯著的安全性能。我們正在審慎地投資我們的投資組合,以推動最終用戶啟發的創新和差異化的市場激活,旨在抓住我們預期的短期和長期份額增長機會。

  • We are funding new growth investments in the relatively healthy markets such as DEWALT professional tools to build upon its seventh consecutive quarter of growth and market share gain, while continuously striving for excellence with how we serve our end users and channel customers.

    我們正在向相對健康的市場(例如 DEWALT 專業工具)進行新的成長投資,以鞏固其連續第七個季度的成長和市場份額的成長,同時不斷追求卓越的終端用戶和通路客戶服務。

  • In Engineered Fastening, we expect growth to again be led by aerospace with OEM monthly build rates expected to step up year-over-year. 2025 projections for global industrial production are flat to positive and the automotive outlook continues to be pressured.

    在工程緊固件領域,我們預計成長將再次由航空航太業引領,OEM 的月度生產力預計將逐年上升。 2025年全球工業生產預測持平至正值,汽車前景持續承壓。

  • In summary, we do believe we can deliver organic revenue growth in 2025 through price increases and share gain in markets that will likely be relatively flat in aggregate. We are committed to continued long-term margin expansion driven by our supply chain transformation plan. Pat will share more detail on this in a moment as well as contextualize our planning framework and tariffs.

    總而言之,我們確實相信,我們能夠在 2025 年透過提高價格和增加市場份額來實現有機收入成長,而總體而言,這些市場可能相對穩定。我們致力於透過供應鏈轉型計劃持續擴大長期利潤率。帕特稍後將分享更多有關這方面的細節,並介紹我們的規劃框架和關稅。

  • I want to thank our team members again for their dedication and a successful 2024. We remain committed to accelerating our growth culture with operational excellence at its core to position the company for sustainable success. I'm confident that we are equipped with the talent and experience to navigate whatever comes our way in 2025 and beyond.

    我要再次感謝我們團隊成員的奉獻精神和 2024 年的成功。我們將繼續致力於以卓越營運為核心加速我們的成長文化,推動公司實現永續成功。我相信,我們有足夠的才能和經驗來應對 2025 年及以後面臨的一切挑戰。

  • I will now pass it to Chris Nelson to review the business segment performance. Chris?

    我現在將交給克里斯·尼爾森來審查業務部門的表現。克里斯?

  • Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

    Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

  • Thank you, Don, and good morning, everyone. First, turning to the Tools and Outdoor operating performance. Fourth quarter revenue was approximately $3.2 billion, driven by 3% organic revenue growth versus prior year. DEWALT delivered its seventh consecutive quarter of organic growth, which was complemented by a solid holiday season. These two positive drivers were partially offset by the weak consumer and DIY backdrop.

    謝謝你,唐,大家早安。首先,談談工具和戶外的操作性能。第四季營收約 32 億美元,受 3% 有機營收成長推動。DEWALT 連續第七個季度實現有機成長,假期季節的強勁成長為其錦上添花。這兩個正面驅動因素被疲軟的消費和 DIY 背景所部分抵消。

  • Fourth quarter adjusted segment margin was 10.2%, a 20-basis-point improvement versus the fourth quarter of 2023. We continue to leverage the supply chain transformation savings to deliver margin expansion while funding incremental growth investments. Growth was broad-based across the segment, and all of our Tools and Outdoor product lines grew organically in the fourth quarter.

    第四季調整後分部利潤率為 10.2%,較 2023 年第四季提高了 20 個基點。我們繼續利用供應鏈轉型節省的資金來擴大利潤,同時為增量成長投資提供資金。整個部門都實現了廣泛成長,我們所有的工具和戶外產品線在第四季度都實現了有機成長。

  • Organic growth for Power Tools was 5% in the quarter, with new innovations pro-driven momentum and solid promotional activity offset by pressure from the soft DIY demand backdrop. Hand tools grew 2% organically. This performance was supported by new product listings notably DEWALT ToughSystem 2.0 DXL modular workstation, which provides pros a solution that can be customized for optimal user productivity. Outdoor posted 3% organic growth in the quarter, supported by positive performance from the independent dealer channel as well as continued momentum with handheld battery offerings. We believe that our customers have rightsized inventory levels exiting 2024, which should set up shipments to match demand in 2025.

    本季電動工具的有機成長率為 5%,新創新驅動的勢頭和穩健的促銷活動抵消了 DIY 需求疲軟帶來的壓力。手動工具有機成長了 2%。這項性能得益於新產品的上市,尤其是 DEWALT ToughSystem 2.0 DXL 模組化工作站,它為專業人士提供了可自訂的解決方案,以實現最佳用戶生產力。戶外用品本季實現了 3% 的有機成長,這得益於獨立經銷商通路的積極表現以及手持電池產品的持續成長。我們相信,我們的客戶在 2024 年後擁有適當的庫存水平,這將確保 2025 年的出貨量能夠滿足需求。

  • Turning to Tools and Outdoor fourth quarter performance by region. North America was up 2% organically with a solid holiday season. Organic growth in Europe was 4%, with positive contributions from most regions supported by investments in growth initiatives including the expansion of our professional product offerings in local and focused marketing activation. Rest of World grew 8% organically. This was driven by high single-digit growth in Latin America led by Brazil, along with mid-single-digit growth in India.

    談工具和戶外用品第四季各地區的業績表現。由於假日季表現強勁,北美地區的有機銷售額成長了 2%。歐洲的有機成長率為 4%,大多數地區都做出了積極貢獻,這得益於對成長計畫的投資,包括擴大我們在本地和重點行銷活動中的專業產品供應。世界其他地區有機成長了 8%。這是由巴西領銜的拉丁美洲的高個位數成長以及印度的中等個位數成長所推動的。

  • Overall, we are pleased with the segment's fourth quarter top line performance. A strong end to a back half that delivered 0.5 point of organic growth with markets that continue to show more signs of stability. On a full year basis, we delivered slightly positive organic growth. DEWALT led the way and posted solid mid-single-digit growth for the year, which we estimate to be ahead of the market representing share gain.

    整體而言,我們對該部門第四季的營收表現感到滿意。下半年業績表現強勁,實現 0.5 個百分點的自然成長,市場持續顯示出更多穩定跡象。從全年來看,我們實現了略微正向的有機成長。DEWALT 一路領先,全年實現了穩健的中個位數成長,我們估計其市場份額將領先市場。

  • Our success was underpinned by innovation with new product launches such as PowerShift, the Construction Jack and our new ToughSystem. Additionally, with our supply chain improvements, we are focused on continuing to improve execution and service levels with our customers. This opens new opportunities for increased listings and placement for our powerful brands in stores. Full year adjusted segment margin expanded by 350 basis points to 10.1%, which is a substantial improvement versus prior year primarily driven by the supply chain transformation initiatives.

    我們的成功得益於新產品的創新,例如 PowerShift、Construction Jack 和我們的新款 ToughSystem。此外,隨著我們供應鏈的改進,我們專注於繼續提高客戶的執行力和服務水準。這為我們強大的品牌在商店中增加上市和展示機會提供了新的機會。全年調整後分部利潤率擴大 350 個基點,達到 10.1%,較上年同期大幅提升,主要得益於供應鏈轉型措施。

  • Now, moving to Industrial. Fourth quarter revenue declined 15% on a reported basis versus the prior year, which was nearly all attributable to the infrastructure business divestiture. Organic revenue was flat with 2 points of price offset by a 2-point volume decline due to automotive market softness. The automotive business experienced a high single-digit organic decline as OEMs reduced light vehicle production schedules and tightened CapEx spending.

    現在轉向工業。第四季營收與前一年相比下降了 15%,幾乎全部歸因於基礎設施業務的剝離。由於汽車市場疲軟,2 個點的價格上漲被 2 個點的銷售下降所抵消,有機收入持平。由於原始設備製造商減少了輕型汽車生產計劃並收緊資本支出,汽車業務經歷了高個位數的有機下滑。

  • The aerospace business posted organic growth in the mid-teens, supported by new content wins and a strong booking rate. Industrial fasteners organic growth was up high single digits. The Industrial adjusted segment margin rate was 10.7% in the quarter, a moderate contraction versus prior year due to the impact of automotive market softness on volumes. For the full year, we delivered 2% organic growth in Engineered Fastening. Total Industrial adjusted segment margin expanded 70 basis points to 12.5%. This margin expansion was driven by the price realization and cost productivity we generated throughout the year.

    受新內容和強勁預訂率的推動,航空航太業務實現了十五六倍的有機成長。工業緊固件有機成長率達到高個位數。本季工業調整後分部利潤率為 10.7%,受汽車市場疲軟對銷售的影響,較去年同期略有收縮。全年而言,我們的工程緊固件業務實現了 2% 的有機成長。工業總調整後部門利潤率擴大 70 個基點,至 12.5%。利潤率的擴大得益於我們全年實現的價格實現和成本生產力的提高。

  • I would like to acknowledge both the Tools and Outdoor and Industrial teams for their focused efforts and solid execution in 2024 against a mixed macroeconomic backdrop and thank the teams for positioning us well as we work through the final innings of the transformation.

    我要感謝工具團隊、戶外和工業團隊在 2024 年好壞參半的宏觀經濟背景下的專注努力和堅實執行,並感謝各團​​隊在我們完成轉型最後階段時為我們做好的定位。

  • Moving to the next slide. I'd like to share more about how we are operationalizing our strategy of thoughtfully and aggressively prioritizing resources to accelerate growth in Tools and Outdoor. Our brand-centered teams studied the category trends in the marketplace to prioritize investments in the fastest-growing user segments. We continue to cultivate deep connections with those end users to gain a well-informed understanding of unique trade and application-based needs, which helps us to prioritize the most impactful innovations in our robust product and technology pipeline.

    移至下一張投影片。我想進一步分享我們如何實施我們的策略,即深思熟慮並積極地優先分配資源,以加速工具和戶外事業的成長。我們以品牌為中心的團隊研究了市場上的類別趨勢,並優先投資成長最快的用戶群。我們繼續與這些最終用戶建立深厚聯繫,以充分了解獨特的貿易和基於應用的需求,這有助於我們在強大的產品和技術管道中優先考慮最具影響力的創新。

  • At the same time, our centralized engineering organization is focused on standardizing innovation processes and implementing a platform approach to design with the eye towards improving our speed, cost and effectiveness. As we shared at our Capital Markets Day, we believe platforming can be a major unlock as we leverage the benefit of common components to reduce complexity while continuing to deliver on our traditional strength of purpose-built innovation. The result is innovative new products developed with speed and at the best cost, solutions that address specific challenges of the priority trade groups.

    同時,我們集中的工程組織致力於標準化創新流程和實施平台設計方法,著眼於提高速度、成本和效率。正如我們在資本市場日所分享的那樣,我們相信平台化可以實現重大突破,因為我們可以利用通用組件的優勢來降低複雜性,同時繼續發揮我們傳統的專用創新優勢。最終我們以最快速度和最優成本開發了創新新產品以及解決優先貿易群體特定挑戰的解決方案。

  • We have multiple examples of this but today, I'm going to highlight carpentry. For the last century and still today, sweat equity has been at the core of our respect for the carpentry trade. Our DEWALT carpentry total solutions offer tools that can keep pros productive in every phase of a job with confidence in every application. With that in mind, we are developing end-to-end solutions to deliver a best-in-class user experience with features to make carpenters as efficient and effective as possible. We provide tailored solutions for demanding applications from framing to building and installing custom cabinetry to molding trim for baseboards, windows and doors.

    我們有多個這樣的例子,但今天,我將重點放在木工上。從上個世紀到今天,汗水股權一直是我們尊重木工產業的核心。我們的 DEWALT 木工整體解決方案提供的工具可讓專業人員在工作的每個階段都富有成效,並對每個應用充滿信心。考慮到這一點,我們正在開發端到端解決方案,以提供一流的用戶體驗,並使木匠盡可能高效、有效。我們為各種要求嚴苛的應用提供客製化解決方案,包括從框架到建造和安裝訂製櫥櫃,再到踢腳板、窗戶和門的模製裝飾。

  • A few new powerful additions to highlight from the expanded lineup of next-generation 20-volt MAX XR tools include the 3-Speed Hammer Drill. This is our most powerful 20-volt MAX hammer drill, which is equipped with the anti-rotation system, a perform and protect safety feature that shuts the tool down if rotational motion is excessive. We've also highlighted our new quarter-inch quiet hydraulic impact driver. This is the industry's highest rated MAX torque hydraulic impact driver. It features quieter operation for volume-sensitive environments and an advanced hydraulic mechanism for consistent performance in tight or tough conditions. We believe concentrating investments behind our core brands and priority trade groups will help us to deliver consistent, profitable share gain in an attractive and growing market.

    新一代 20 伏特 MAX XR 工具擴展陣容中新增的一些強大功能值得關注,其中包括 3 速錘鑽。這是我們最強大的 20 伏特 MAX 錘鑽,配備防旋轉系統,這是一種執行和保護安全功能,如果旋轉運動過度,它會關閉工具。我們還重點介紹了我們的新型四分之一英寸靜音液壓衝擊起子。這是業界額定值最高的最大扭力液壓衝擊驅動器。它具有更安靜的運行特性,適用於對音量敏感的環境,並具有先進的液壓機制,可在狹窄或惡劣的條件下保持一致的性能。我們相信,集中投資於我們的核心品牌和優先貿易集團將有助於我們在一個有吸引力且不斷增長的市場中實現持續、有利可圖的份額成長。

  • We expect our efforts to again outperform the market this year. We have what it takes to win and are moving with a sense of urgency to accelerate our organic growth trajectory to step up and consistently deliver 200 to 300 basis points of growth above the market over the midterm.

    我們預計今年我們的努力將再次超越市場。我們擁有贏得勝利所需的一切,並且正以緊迫感加速我們的有機成長軌跡,並在中期內持續實現高於市場 200 至 300 個基點的成長。

  • Thank you very much, and I'll now pass the call over to Pat Hallinan.

    非常感謝,現在我將電話轉給 Pat Hallinan。

  • Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Chris, and good morning. As you've heard from us throughout this past year, we made meaningful progress on our transformation journey in 2024. I will now highlight the financial accomplishments achieved during the fourth quarter and then detail how we plan to continue towards our cost savings and margin targets to complete our strategic transformation and pivot to accelerated growth and continual margin expansion.

    謝謝,克里斯,早安。正如您在過去一年中聽到的那樣,我們在 2024 年的轉型之旅中取得了有意義的進展。我現在將重點介紹第四季度取得的財務成就,然後詳細說明我們計劃如何繼續實現成本節約和利潤目標,以完成我們的策略轉型並轉向加速成長和持續擴大利潤率。

  • In the fourth quarter, we achieved approximately $110 million of pretax run rate cost savings. For 2024, in total, we generated approximately $500 million of pretax run rate cost savings. This result is in line with the framework we set both at the outset of the transformation and in the beginning of the year despite continued volume headwinds. This brings our aggregate savings to approximately $1.5 billion since the program's inception. Of the $1.5 billion, approximately $1 billion has come from the supply chain transformation with material productivity and operations excellence driving approximately 75% of these savings captured to date.

    第四季度,我們實現了約 1.1 億美元的稅前營運成本節約。到 2024 年,我們總共節省了約 5 億美元的稅前營運成本。儘管銷售量持續面臨阻力,但這一結果符合我們在轉型之初和年初設定的框架。自該計劃實施以來,我們的累計節省金額已達到約 15 億美元。在這 15 億美元中,約有 10 億美元來自供應鏈轉型,迄今為止,材料生產率和卓越營運推動了約 75% 的節省。

  • Our 2024 and program-to-date performance demonstrates strong execution by our teams. We've achieved sequential adjusted gross margin improvement over each half year period for the last two years. I would like to commend my colleagues across the organization for diligently continuing to pursue the cost reduction goals of our transformation. We continue to target $2 billion of pre-tax run rate cost savings by the end of 2025 as we complete the transformation.

    我們的 2024 年和迄今為止的計劃表現證明了我們團隊的強大執行力。過去兩年,我們每半年的調整後毛利率都實現了連續成長。我要讚揚整個組織的同事們,他們繼續勤奮地追求我們轉型的成本削減目標。隨著我們完成轉型,我們仍將目標定為在 2025 年底實現 20 億美元的稅前營運成本節約。

  • Of the $2 billion, we expect $1.5 billion to be delivered through our four core supply chain transformation initiatives of material productivity, operations excellence, footprint actions and complexity reduction. We are activating a robust pipeline of savings initiatives to support our expected gross margin expansion momentum. Overall, we remain confident in our ability to achieve our target of 35% plus adjusted gross margin.

    在這 20 億美元中,我們預計將有 15 億美元將透過四個核心供應鏈轉型計畫來實現,即材料生產率、卓越營運、足跡行動和複雜性降低。我們正在啟動一系列強有力的節約計劃,以支持我們預期的毛利率擴張動能。整體而言,我們仍有信心達到 35% 以上的調整後毛利率目標。

  • Moving to the next slide. We had a strong finish to the year as we continue to make progress on two of our most important focus areas, cash generation and gross margin expansion. We generated $565 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, bringing 2024 free cash flow generation to just over $750 million, which was near the top end of our initial 2024 guidance range of $600 million to $800 million. Our solid operational performance along with the proceeds from the infrastructure divestiture helped fund our dividend and reduce debt by $1.1 billion. Drivers of 2024 free cash flow were year-over-year growth in cash earnings driven by operational improvements, along with over $300 million of working capital benefit.

    移至下一張投影片。我們以強勁的業績結束了這一年度,我們在兩個最重要的重點領域,即現金創造和毛利率擴大方面繼續取得進展。我們在第四季度產生了 5.65 億美元的自由現金流,使 2024 年的自由現金流產生量略高於 7.5 億美元,接近我們最初 2024 年 6 億至 8 億美元指導範圍的最高值。我們穩健的營運表現以及基礎設施剝離的收益幫助我們支付股息並減少了 11 億美元的債務。2024 年自由現金流的驅動因素是營運改善推動的現金收益年增率以及超過 3 億美元的營運資金收益。

  • Before year-end, we made the strategic decision to invest in roughly $200 million of strategic inventory to buffer the potential impact of changes to the operating environment. Overall, it is encouraging to see higher earnings as a result of operational improvements become a predominant driver of free cash flow as these profitability enhancements are sustainable to our future free cash flow.

    年底前,我們做出了策略決策,投資約2億美元的策略性庫存,以緩衝經營環境變化的潛在影響。總體而言,令人鼓舞的是,由於營運改善而帶來的更高收益成為自由現金流的主要驅動力,因為這些獲利能力的提升對於我們未來的自由現金流具有可持續性。

  • Regarding capital allocation, in the near and medium term, our priorities are to fund the transformation and our acceleration of organic growth to support our long-standing dividend and to reduce debt. We remain committed to maintaining a solid investment-grade credit rating.

    關於資本配置,在短期和中期內,我們的首要任務是資助轉型和加速有機成長,以支持我們的長期股息並減少債務。我們依然致力於維持穩健的投資等級信用評等。

  • In 2025, we plan to further reduce debt, working towards our target leverage metric of approximately at or below 2.5 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. We expect to achieve this objective over the next 12 to 18 months, depending on the timing of modest portfolio pruning actions, which we expect to generate greater than $500 million of proceeds.

    2025 年,我們計劃進一步減少債務,努力實現我們的目標槓桿率指標:淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率約為或低於 2.5 倍。我們預計將在未來 12 到 18 個月內實現這一目標,具體取決於適度的投資組合修剪行動的時機,我們預計將產生超過 5 億美元的收益。

  • Turning to profitability. Adjusted gross margin was 31.2% in the fourth quarter, a 140 basis point improvement versus prior year, primarily driven by savings from the supply chain transformation, net of freight inflation as well as normal wage and benefit inflation. With our performance this quarter, we achieved our long-held interim transformation goal of 30% adjusted gross margin in 2024.

    轉向盈利能力。第四季調整後毛利率為31.2%,較上年同期提高140個基點,主要得益於供應鏈轉型帶來的節約,扣除運費通膨以及正常工資和福利通膨。憑藉本季的表現,我們實現了長期以來的中期轉型目標,即 2024 年調整後毛利率達到 30%。

  • Given the dynamic nature of currently surrounding tariff policies, we believe it is prudent to provide our 2025 planning assumptions today, excluding the impact of new tariffs. Additionally, we have provided a view of our enterprise-wide US cost of goods sold by country of origin. Regarding tariffs, ultimately, we expect to mitigate the impact of potential scenarios through a combination of supply chain and price adjustments.

    鑑於當前關稅政策的動態性質,我們認為今天提供 2025 年規劃假設(不包括新關稅的影響)是謹慎的。此外,我們也提供了按原產國劃分的企業範圍內美國商品銷售成本的視圖。關於關稅,最終,我們希望透過供應鏈和價格調整相結合的方式來減輕潛在情景的影響。

  • I will now walk you through the 2025 planning assumptions for our company, which exclude the impact of potential tariffs, I will then conclude by sharing our general approach to potential tariff mitigation. The 2025 pre-tariff base case implies a full year GAAP earnings per share midpoint of $4.05, plus or minus $0.65 as well as adjusted earnings per share midpoint of $5.25, plus or minus $0.50.

    現在,我將向您介紹我們公司 2025 年的規劃假設,其中不包括潛在關稅的影響,然後我將分享我們對潛在關稅減免的一般方法。2025 年關稅前基準情況意味著全年 GAAP 每股收益中位數為 4.05 美元,上下浮動 0.65 美元,調整後每股收益中位數為 5.25 美元,上下浮動 0.50 美元。

  • Our pre-tariff free cash flow base is $750 million, plus or minus $100 million, with the midpoint in a similar zone to 2024, led by operational earnings expansion. We will continue to prioritize inventory effectiveness in 2025 with the plan to reduce total working capital by $250 million to $350 million. This includes persisting roughly $150 million of targeted inventory investments to facilitate an acceleration of supply chain changes to reduce US exposure to China production.

    我們的關稅前自由現金流基礎為 7.5 億美元,上下浮動 1 億美元,中點與 2024 年處於相似區域,主要由營業利潤擴張推動。我們將在 2025 年繼續優先考慮庫存效率,並計劃將總營運資本減少 2.5 億美元至 3.5 億美元。其中包括堅持約1.5億美元的定向庫存投​​資,以加速供應鏈變革,減少美國對中國生產的依賴。

  • Our 2025 outlook for capital expenditures is $350 million to $400 million, approximately 2.5% of sales. We expect first quarter free cash flow to be an outflow consistent with typical historic working capital trend. This base case called for earning expansion in 2025 through organic growth from modest share gains and price increases in response to currency headwinds, combined with supply chain cost structure improvements that are primarily in our control.

    我們對 2025 年資本支出的預測為 3.5 億至 4 億美元,約佔銷售額的 2.5%。我們預期第一季的自由現金流將與典型的歷史營運資本趨勢一致。這一基本情況要求 2025 年盈利透過溫和的份額增長和應對貨幣逆風的價格上漲帶來的有機增長,加上主要在我們控制範圍內的供應鏈成本結構改善而擴大。

  • We are planning for the first half 2025 aggregate market demand to remain muted at relatively stable levels compared to the second half of 2024 with the potential for a positive inflection later in the year. At our midpoint, we are expecting approximately 1% to 2% organic growth in the front half compared to approximately 0.5 point of growth in the second half of 2024. This assumes modest share gain and easier comps against 2024 channel inventory reduction.

    我們計劃,2025 年上半年的總市場需求與 2024 年下半年相比保持相對穩定的水平,並有可能在今年稍後出現積極拐點。我們預計,2024 年上半年的自然成長率約為 1% 至 2%,而下半年的自然成長率約為 0.5 個百分點。這意味著市場份額將適度增長,且與 2024 年渠道庫存減少相比更容易實現同比上漲。

  • The back half is expected to be modestly stronger supported in part by the price increases we are implementing in response to currency. The underlying demand assumptions are for a continuation of relative strength for professional tools as well as aerospace and industrial fastening. This is accompanied by an expectation for the presently soft automotive, consumer and DIY demand trends to persist with the potential to inflect positive in the middle of 2025.

    預計下半年業績將略有走強,部分原因是我們為因應貨幣變動而實施的價格上漲。基本需求假設是專業工具以及航空航天和工業緊固件將繼續保持相對強勢。同時,預計目前疲軟的汽車、消費者和 DIY 需求趨勢將持續下去,並有可能在 2025 年中期實現積極轉變。

  • These assumptions underpin our full year plan for total company reported revenue to be relatively flat year-over-year, with organic revenue growth roughly offsetting headwinds from currency and the final quarter of the infrastructure divestiture. Organic revenue growth is planned to be up just over 2% at the midpoint, outpacing the overall market supported by targeted share gains in our businesses and modest pricing to offset currency pressure. Our planning range contemplates plus or minus 150 basis points of volume growth with the variances driven by market demand.

    這些假設支撐了我們全年計劃,即公司報告的總收入與去年同期相比相對持平,有機收入成長大致抵消了貨幣和基礎設施剝離最後一個季度帶來的阻力。預計有機收入成長中位數將略高於 2%,超過整體市場,這得益於我們業務的目標份額增長和為抵消貨幣壓力而採取的適度定價。我們的計劃範圍考慮了銷量成長的正負 150 個基點,差異由市場需求決定。

  • Tools and Outdoor organic revenue growth is expected to be in the low single digits at the midpoint, supported by the same organic factors as the total company. Volume growth will be fueled by strategic investments focused on our core brands and directed towards pro-led and industry-leading innovation as well as local and focused market activation with additional field resources and targeted marketing initiatives.

    工具和戶外用品的有機收入成長預計在中間值處於低個位數,並受到與整個公司相同的有機因素的支持。銷售成長將得益於以我們的核心品牌為重點的策略性投資,以及面向專業和行業領先的創新,以及透過額外的現場資源和有針對性的行銷計劃進行的本地和重點市場活化。

  • Industrial organic revenue is expected to be in the low single digits, primarily driven by an aerospace market recovery as well as market outperformance in industrial fasteners, driven by investments in end market penetration. The automotive outlook, which is tied to light vehicle production is muted, and as such, we are planning for this business to be negative in 2025, while prioritizing regions with share gain opportunities.

    工業有機收入預計將達到個位數低位,主要得益於航空航太市場的復甦以及工業緊固件市場的優異表現,這得益於對終端市場滲透的投資。與輕型汽車生產相關的汽車產業前景不樂觀,因此,我們預計 2025 年該業務將出現負成長,同時優先考慮具有份額成長機會的地區。

  • From a reporting perspective, in 2025, we are shifting a small storage business from Industrial into the Tools and Outdoor segment. We will disclose the impact of this change on a quarterly basis and it will not be included in either segments reported organic growth. Our transformation program will be a positive contributor to adjusted gross margin again in 2025, and we will invest a portion of those savings for long-term organic growth and share gain.

    從報告角度來看,到 2025 年,我們將把小型儲存業務從工業轉移到工具和戶外領域。我們將按季度揭露此變更的影響,並且它不會包含在任何一個部門報告的有機成長中。我們的轉型計畫將在 2025 年再次對調整後的毛利率產生積極貢獻,我們將把部分節省的資金投資於長期有機成長和份額成長。

  • This year, we plan to invest an incremental $100 million to further advance our robust innovation pipeline and fuel market activation aimed to improve brand health and accelerate organic growth. Our planning expectation is that SG&A as a percentage of sales in 2025 remains around 22%. We will manage SG&A thoughtfully with the intent to preserve the investments designed to position the business for long-term growth.

    今年,我們計劃增加投資 1 億美元,以進一步推進我們強大的創新管道和推動市場激活,旨在改善品牌健康並加速有機成長。我們的規劃預期是,2025 年銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比維持在 22% 左右。我們將謹慎管理銷售、一般和行政費用,旨在保留旨在實現業務長期成長的投資。

  • Turning to profitability, we expect total company adjusted EBITDA margin to improve for the full year supported by top line expansion and the benefits of the supply chain transformation program with a neutral input cost outlook for 2025. Currency represents a $100 million headwind to profit based on the midpoint of January rates. A subset of this, approximately $40 million is a transactional headwind to gross margin and is expected to be fully covered by price this year. We are implementing price with speed but expect a slight net headwind in the front half of 2025.

    談到獲利能力,我們預計,在營收成長和供應鏈轉型計畫效益的推動下,公司全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將有所提高,對 2025 年的投入成本前景持中性看法。根據一月中間價匯率計算,匯率將對企業利潤帶來1億美元的不利影響。其中約 4,000 萬美元是交易對毛利率的不利影響,預計今年的價格將完全覆蓋。我們正在快速實施定價,但預計 2025 年上半年會出現輕微的淨逆風。

  • Segment margin in Tools and Outdoor is planned to be up year-over-year, also driven by low single-digit growth and continued momentum from our ongoing strategic transformation. The Industrial segment is expected to decline versus prior year as volume growth and operating improvements are offset by the mix pressures from automotive.

    工具和戶外用品部門的利潤率計劃年增,這也得益於低個位數成長和我們正在進行的策略轉型帶來的持續動力。由於銷售成長和營運改善被汽車產品組合壓力所抵消,工業部門預計將較上年同期下降。

  • Turning to other 2025 pre-tariff assumptions. GAAP earnings include pre-tax non-GAAP adjustments ranging from $195 million to $260 million largely related to the supply chain transformation program with approximately 25% expected to be non-cash footprint rationalization costs. Our adjusted tax rate is expected to step up in 2025 to 15%, with the first two quarters consistent with the first half rates experienced last year at around 30%.

    轉向其他 2025 年關稅前假設。GAAP 收益包括 1.95 億美元至 2.6 億美元的稅前非 GAAP 調整,主要與供應鏈轉型計劃有關,其中約 25% 預計為非現金足跡合理化成本。我們預計調整後的稅率將在 2025 年升至 15%,前兩季的稅率與去年上半年的 30% 左右的稅率一致。

  • Other 2025 modeling assumptions are noted on the slide. We expect the first quarter adjusted earnings per share to be approximately 12% to 13% of the $5.25 planning assumption underpinned by total company organic sales growth that is expected to be low single digits. The range around the quarter is likely greater than normal given potential tariffs might change first quarter ordering behavior.

    投影片上註明了其他 2025 年建模假設。我們預計第一季調整後每股收益約為 5.25 美元計畫假設的 12% 至 13%,這得益於預計公司整體有機銷售額成長率為個位數。由於潛在的關稅可能會改變第一季的訂購行為,本季度的範圍可能大於正常水平。

  • The EPS in the quarter is impacted by the tax profile discussed earlier. Adjusted first quarter EBITDA is expected to be roughly 20% of our full year expectation in this planning assumption relatively consistent with pre-pandemic history, which brings me to the impacts that are possible if tariffs are enacted and persist. We previously disclosed tools and outdoor US manufacturing footprint details in late 2024. We have updated the disclosure to reference US COGS for the entire company and share the latest information based on US trade defined country of origin.

    本季的每股盈餘受到前面討論的稅務狀況的影響。根據這個規劃假設,第一季調整後的 EBITDA 預計將達到我們全年預期的約 20%,這與疫情前的歷史相對一致,這讓我想到瞭如果關稅實施並持續下去可能產生的影響。我們之前曾於 2024 年底披露了工具和美國戶外製造足跡的詳細資訊。我們已更新揭露內容,以參考整個公司的美國銷貨成本,並根據美國貿易定義的原產國分享最新資訊。

  • Our latest view of China is lower at $900 million to $1 billion of imports into the United States and we continue to work to reduce this exposure. Our approach to any tariff scenario will be to offset the impacts with a mix of supply chain and pricing actions, which might lag the formalization of tariffs by two to three months, therefore, limiting P&L headwinds in the near term and maintaining our long-term margin objectives. If the current addition of 10% tariffs on China remains in place, we would expect an annualized unmitigated impact of approximately $90 million to $100 million. Based on how we would react, this will result in a 2025 net impact of $10 million to $20 million, accounting for the time needed to deploy countermeasures.

    我們最新預測認為,中國對美國的進口額將較低,約 9 億至 10 億美元,我們將繼續努力降低此風險。我們對任何關稅情境的方法都是透過供應鏈和定價行動來抵消影響,這可能會比關稅的正式化滯後兩到三個月,從而限制短期內的損益阻力並維持我們的長期利潤目標。如果目前對中國徵收 10% 的關稅仍然有效,我們預計年化未緩解影響約為 9,000 萬至 1 億美元。根據我們的反應,這將導致 2025 年的淨影響達到 1,000 萬至 2,000 萬美元,考慮到部署對策所需的時間。

  • We expect the current situation to remain dynamic. We expect to await greater clarity before enacting any new measures beyond the work of accelerating US COGS out of China, which was underway and was accelerated during the second half of 2024. In summary, 2025 represents the final step along our transformation journey with a continued focus on gross margin and cash as well as a return to organic growth. Our top priorities remain delivering margin expansion, cash generation and balance sheet strength to position the company for long-term growth and value creation.

    我們預計當前局勢仍將保持動態。我們預計將等待更明確的訊息,然後才會採取任何新措施,除了加速將美國銷貨成本撤出中國的工作之外,這項工作正在進行中,並於 2024 年下半年加速推進。總而言之,2025 年代表我們轉型之旅的最後一步,我們將繼續關注毛利率和現金以及恢復有機成長。我們的首要任務仍然是擴大利潤率、創造現金和增強資產負債表實力,從而為公司的長期成長和價值創造做好準備。

  • With that, I will now pass the call back to Don.

    說完這些,我現在將電話轉回給唐。

  • Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Pat. As you heard this morning, the company is committed to continuing to make meaningful progress across our key priorities of margin improvement, cash generation and restoring balance sheet strength, while also investing in future sustainable growth to drive share gains. Even as we draw closer to the end of our strategic transformation, we are keeping the pedal down and moving decisively to drive results.

    謝謝你,帕特。正如大家今天早上所聽到的,公司致力於繼續在提高利潤率、創造現金和恢復資產負債表實力等關鍵重點事項上取得有意義的進展,同時投資於未來的可持續增長以推動股價上漲。即使我們已接近策略轉型的尾聲,我們仍將繼續堅定不移地推進,果斷採取行動,取得成果。

  • While we don't know the ultimate tariff policy environment at this time, we believe we can successfully manage through them and achieve our long-term financial goals. By accelerating our growth culture with operational excellence at its core, we are positioning the company to deliver improved sustainable organic growth, margins and cash flow to support strong long-term shareholder return via significant EBITDA expansion.

    雖然我們目前還不知道最終的關稅政策環境,但我們相信我們可以成功應對這些環境並實現我們的長期財務目標。透過以卓越營運為核心加速我們的成長文化,我們正在使公司實現更好的可持續有機成長、利潤率和現金流,以透過大幅擴大 EBITDA 來支持強勁的長期股東回報。

  • We are now ready for Q&A, Dennis.

    我們現在準備好問答了,丹尼斯。

  • Dennis Lange - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Dennis Lange - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Don. Shannon, we can now start Q&A, please. Thank you.

    謝謝,唐。香農,我們現在可以開始問答環節了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    (操作員指示)巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • Maybe just a first question, please, around the margin outlook. So maybe just remind us sort of what exit gross margin rate we should assume from this year. And on the operating margin line, I think the guide implies maybe 150 bps or so of increase this year versus 2024. Just wanted to check if that's the right ballpark and any kind of cadence of that expansion through the year?

    請問第一個問題是關於利潤前景的。所以也許只是提醒我們今年應該假設的退出毛利率是多少。就營業利潤率而言,我認為該指南暗示今年的營業利潤率可能比 2024 年增加 150 個基點左右。只是想檢查這是否是正確的大概情況以及全年擴張的節奏如何?

  • Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Julian, yes, gross margin obviously remains a priority for us and our full year objectives in '25 versus '24 are approaching 250 basis points-ish of full year margin expansion. Some headwinds will temper the first half will be 100 basis points-plus up year-over-year in the first half gross margin-wise. Some of those headwinds are some of the carrying costs like logistics, and absorption costs from the back half of last year, the lower automotive mix and some FX.

    朱利安,是的,毛利率顯然仍然是我們的首要任務,而我們 2025 年與 2024 年相比的全年目標是全年利潤率增長接近 250 個基點。一些不利因素將會影響上半年的業績,上半年毛利率將比去年同期增加 100 個基點以上。這些不利因素包括物流等運輸成本、去年下半年的吸收成本、汽車產品組合下降以及一些外匯。

  • And then in the back half, we'll get the pricing we're going to put in place due to FX. So you'll have 100 basis points-plus of expansion year-over-year in the first half and like 300 plus in the back half to drive that full year. I'd say for the fourth quarter, we're expecting to exit somewhere right in that midpoint between 34% and 35% on the quarter.

    然後在後半部分,我們將獲得因外匯而製定的定價。因此,上半年的年成長率將超過 100 個基點,下半年的年成長率將超過 300 個基點,從而推動全年的成長。我認為,對於第四季度,我們預計將在該季度的中間點附近退出,即 34% 到 35% 之間。

  • And certainly, I think your second question was around operating margin, which both operating and EBITDA margin you're in the ZIP code of being kind of 150 basis points-plus. And obviously, some of the same gross margin dynamics will color the op and EBITDA margin throughout the year.

    當然,我認為您的第二個問題是關於營業利潤率,您所在郵遞區號地區的營業利潤率和 EBITDA 利潤率都在 150 個基點以上。顯然,相同的一些毛利率動態將對全年的營業利潤和 EBITDA 利潤率產生影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

    奈傑爾·科(Nigel Coe),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Nigel Coe - Analyst

    Nigel Coe - Analyst

  • Thanks for the comments on the gross margin. I'm just wondering the -- what sort of SG&A investments are you planning for the year. And I'm just wondering, the step-up we saw this quarter, is that in the run rate in 2025 because it does feel like you're really sort of raising the (inaudible) growth here. So I'm just wondering what sort of investments you're making to support that growth.

    感謝您對毛利率的評論。我只是想知道——您今年計劃進行哪些銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 投資。我只是想知道,我們本季看到的成長是否是 2025 年的運行率,因為確實感覺你確實在提高(聽不清楚)這裡的成長率。所以我只是想知道你們正在進行什麼樣的投資來支持這種成長。

  • Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

    Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

  • Nigel, it's Chris. Hope you're doing well. I'll start out and then pass it over to Pat. But specifically, where we're looking to invest and where we are continuing to invest as we focused more on our core brands starting last year is, first and foremost, in making sure that we really drive outsized investment towards the professional in making sure that we have our pipeline of innovations really targeted towards that end user and making sure that we're accelerating product launches to make that end user safer and more productive on the job site. That's kind of job number one.

    奈傑爾,我是克里斯。祝你一切順利。我先開始,然後將其交給帕特。但具體來說,隨著我們從去年開始更加關注我們的核心品牌,我們希望投資的地方以及我們將繼續投資的地方,首先是確保我們真正向專業人士投入超額投資,確保我們的創新管道真正針對最終用戶,並確保我們正在加快產品發布,以使最終用戶在工作現場更安全、更有效率。這是首要的工作。

  • And then as we've talked about in the past couple of announcements has been really focusing on making sure that we're putting local market activation resources in the field. We are -- I think we've been roughly 400 incremental folks in the field over the past 12 months or so. And that is making sure that we can obviously in areas that we are underpenetrated, we can look to drive the market share growth that we see as an opportunity, not only in our largest market in the US but obviously, we're looking at some other developing markets, specifically in EMEA.

    正如我們在過去的幾次公告中談到的那樣,我們真正關注的是確保我們在該領域投入本地市場激活資源。我認為,在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡,我們在該領域的員工人數增加了約 400 人。這確保了我們能夠在尚未滲透的領域中,尋求推動市場份額的成長,我們認為這是一個機會,不僅是在我們最大的美國市場,而且顯然,我們也在關注其他一些發展中市場,特別是歐洲、中東和非洲地區。

  • And then lastly, we are -- as we focus on those core brands of DEWALT, Stanley and Craftsman, we are investing incremental dollars into driving that brand health through increased promotion as well as advertising dollars there to really help drive those as our core brands moving forward.

    最後,當我們專注於 DEWALT、Stanley 和 Craftsman 這些核心品牌時,我們會投入越來越多的資金來推動這些品牌的健康發展,透過增加促銷和廣告費用來真正幫助推動這些核心品牌向前發展。

  • As far as the actual math on the run rate, I'll turn that over to Pat.

    至於運行率的實際計算,我將把它交給帕特。

  • Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Nigel, for the full year, we would expect SG&A as a percentage of net sales to be around 22%, maybe a little bit shy of exactly that amount. And any given quarter kind of bouncing around 22% to 21%, I think mostly around 22%. You could just with the normal seasonal sales surge in the second quarter, see it get closer to 21% in the second quarter but that has more to do with the seasonality of sales than a real meaningful change in investment cadence throughout the quarter. I kind of just -- you're going to be closer to 22% quarter in, quarter out.

    是的。奈傑爾,我們預期全年銷售、一般及行政開支佔淨銷售額的百分比約為 22%,可能略低於這個數字。任何一個季度,成長率都會在 22% 到 21% 之間波動,我認為大多在 22% 左右。您可能會發現第二季的銷售出現正常的季節性激增,增幅接近 21%,但這更多地與銷售的季節性有關,而不是整個季度投資節奏的真正有意義的變化。我只是——每個季度的成長率都會更接近 22%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tim Wojs, Baird.

    蒂姆·沃斯,貝爾德。

  • Tim Wojs - Analyst

    Tim Wojs - Analyst

  • I guess as you think about share gains and kind of further share gains in 2025 and targeting low single-digit organic growth in Tools. Could you just maybe discuss the puts and takes to that? And I guess really what I'm wondering is how much of it is really accelerating and investing in DEWALT growth and maybe seeing acceleration from that mid-single-digit growth you posted in 2025 versus maybe seeing some of the non-DEWALT businesses kind of getting back to market growth rates?

    我想,當您考慮份額增長以及 2025 年的進一步份額增長並瞄準工具業務的低個位數有機增長時。您能否討論一下這件事的利弊?我真正想知道的是,其中有多少真正加速並投資於 DEWALT 的成長,並且可能看到從您在 2025 年發布的中等個位數成長加速,還是可能看到一些非 DEWALT 業務恢復到市場成長率?

  • Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

    Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

  • Tim, this is Chris. I'll jump on that one. First, I would say that, absolutely, we have seen nice progress in DEWALT over the past seven quarters as we noted earlier. And we are certainly as we look at emphasizing the professional, we are going to continue to build on that success and look for continued acceleration in the DEWALT brands.

    提姆,這是克里斯。我會跳到那一個。首先,我想說,正如我們之前提到的,我們在過去七個季度中看到了 DEWALT 的良好進展。當然,當我們強調專業時,我們將繼續在此成功的基礎上再接再厲,尋求 DEWALT 品牌的持續加速發展。

  • But the other two brands that we -- that we're making sure that we invest in as our core brand being Stanley and Craftsman, we do expect to see stabilization and starting to see some modest share gains as we move into this year as well. And we've been taking steps to -- and we're starting to see the progress there. So it's -- certainly, we're going to continue to build on the momentum that we've established in DEWALT and we want to see and establish another couple of areas of momentum with both Craftsman and Stanley.

    但是,我們確保投資的另外兩個品牌,即 Stanley 和 Craftsman,作為我們的核心品牌,我們確實預計,隨著今年的到來,它們的銷量將趨於穩定,並且份額也將開始略有增長。我們已經採取措施——並且開始看到進展。所以,當然,我們將繼續鞏固我們在 DEWALT 已經建立的勢頭,並且我們希望看到並建立與 Craftsman 和 Stanley 的另外幾個勢頭領域。

  • Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I'd say one of the things, Tim, to keep in mind is we're really excited about the growth we're seeing and the seven quarters of DEWALT growth. I would just kind of remind you and others, in the back half, we have about a percentage point of FX-related price in there, just so you're kind of -- if you're trying to build a walk year-over-year second half to second half, you got about percentage point of FX price that's also in the mix of that sales growth.

    提姆,我想說要記住的一件事是,我們對所看到的成長以及 DEWALT 七個季度的成長感到非常興奮。我只是想提醒您和其他人,在下半年,我們有大約一個百分點的外匯相關價格,所以如果你想建立一個同比下半年的走勢,那麼大約有一個百分點的外匯價格也是銷售增長的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

    瑞穗的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • I appreciate all the details on the tariffs. I know it's a fluid situation. But as it relates to the $10 million to $20 million net impact for '25, can you just mention how much of the offsetting actions are price mitigation versus the supply chain reconfiguration? And then maybe any color on this, the pricing assumption embedded on a full year basis.

    我感謝您提供有關關稅的所有詳細資訊。我知道情況很不穩定。但由於它與 25 年 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元的淨影響有關,您能否提一下抵消措施中有多少是價格降低措施,有多少是供應鏈重新配置措施?然後也許對此有任何影響,定價假設是基於全年基礎的。

  • Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. We obviously shared that, that full year impact unmitigated is in that $90 million to $100 million range. And our ultimate job is to keep our brands competitive and to work with our channel partners to keep them competitive. And so we're going to be working to accelerate as we already were US COGS base out of China.

    是的。我們顯然已經表示,全年未減輕的影響將在 9,000 萬至 1 億美元之間。我們的最終工作是保持我們品牌的競爭力,並與我們的通路合作夥伴合作以保持他們的競爭力。因此,我們將努力加速推進,因為我們已經將美國 COGS 基地遷出中國。

  • And in the interim, we will have to use some price on that and we'll be working that in as appropriate in the coming weeks or months. The real net impact is just the lag of getting measures in place and in particular, some of the LIFO effects of when that forces some expense into our income statement in this first half of the year ahead of -- ahead of some of those actions actually hitting the P&L in the front half of this part of the year.

    在此期間,我們必須對此採取一些價格措施,並將在未來幾週或幾個月內酌情採取相應措施。真正的淨影響只是措施到位的滯後,尤其是一些後進先出法 (LIFO) 的影響,這種影響會迫使我們在今年上半年的損益表中計入一些費用,而這些費用實際上會在上半年影響到損益表。

  • Now, we're going to try to work it to zero. We're just trying to give people a range to think about, which, I'd say, $10 million to $20 million is certainly a workable range. And again, we'll try to work it to zero if we can throughout the year.

    現在,我們將嘗試將其歸零。我們只是想給人們一個思考的範圍,我認為 1000 萬美元到 2000 萬美元肯定是一個可行的範圍。再說一次,如果可以的話,我們會努力在全年將其降至零。

  • Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And thank you, Pat. That's a good answer to the question. But since you brought up tariffs, it's an opportunity actually to talk a little bit about why we feel like we've built a really solid plan to help us navigate through this period of time. And as we talked through probably for the last three or four earnings calls, we've been working through a planning process and then subsequent to that and execution process. And for many of you who have followed us for a long time, we went through tariffs in the first President Trump administration. We figured out how to navigate it back then, and we built some muscle.

    謝謝你,帕特。這很好地回答了這個問題。但既然你提到了關稅,這實際上是一個機會來談談為什麼我們覺得我們已經制定了一個非常可靠的計劃來幫助我們度過這段時期。正如我們在過去三、四次財報電話會議上討論的那樣,我們一直在進行規劃流程,然後是隨後的執行流程。對於許多長期關注我們的人來說,我們在川普總統第一任政府時期就經歷了關稅。我們當時就想出瞭如何應對這項挑戰,並且增強了一些實力。

  • We also have a really strong team that we've built here over the last couple of years. And as I mentioned in my opening comments, we feel like we are well prepared to mitigate this again. It will create a modest disruption for periods of time in the short term. But a reminder to everybody is that we back in seven, eight years ago, about 40% of what we sold in the US came from China. And now we're down to a number that's closer to the mid-teens and around 15%. And so substantial progress has been made, not only in the last six months but in the last six to seven years.

    我們在過去幾年中也建立了一支非常強大的團隊。正如我在開場白中提到的那樣,我們覺得我們已經做好了再次緩解這種情況的準備。短期內它將會在一段時間內造成輕微的混亂。但要提醒大家的是,七、八年前,我們在美國銷售的產品中約有 40% 來自中國。現在,這一數字已經下降到接近十幾歲、大約 15% 的水平。因此,我們不僅在過去六個月中,而且在過去六到七年中都取得了實質進展。

  • And as Pat said in his comments, and just mentioned again, we're going to continue to migrate away from China as a source for the US market. China will continue to be a source for other markets for us because it is a very strong operation from a manufacturing point of view.

    正如帕特在評論中所說,並且再次提到,我們將繼續從中國轉向美國市場。中國將繼續成為我們其他市場的來源,因為從製造業的角度來看,中國的營運非常強大。

  • But I'll let Chris talk a little bit about what the execution plans are as much as we can because this is very fluid.

    但我會讓克里斯盡可能多地談談執行計劃,因為這是非常不穩定的。

  • Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

    Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

  • Yes. And Don, thanks. You mentioned that we've really been working on not only the plan but the execution since earlier last year. And it's really a three-pronged plan where the first one has been working with -- for direct engagement with the policymakers. And we certainly look forward to continuing to work with the new administration and we have been meeting with many of the key constituents in or around the new Trump administration since late last August. And making sure that as the administration navigates how and -- how they would or could implement new tariffs, we are there and a voice to be heard as that happens. And I think that, that has been -- we found that to be a very positive relationship and a positive interaction thus far, and we plan to continue.

    是的。還有唐,謝謝。您提到,自去年年初以來,我們不僅在製定計劃,還在致力於執行。這實際上是一個三管齊下的計劃,其中第一項是與政策制定者直接接觸。我們當然期待繼續與新政府合作。並確保當政府考慮如何以及怎樣實施新的關稅時,我們會在場並發出自己的聲音。我認為,到目前為止,我們發現這是一種非常積極的關係和積極的互動,我們計劃繼續下去。

  • Secondly, and this is kind of a continuation, but certainly, we've accelerated over the past six to nine months is continuing to mitigate with a specific eye to derisking China, our supply chain. As Don mentioned, we've made significant progress since the last tariff policy was put in place. And we've been accelerating in the back half, and you can see the results of where we are now.

    其次,這是一種延續,但可以肯定的是,我們在過去六到九個月中一直在加速緩解風險,特別著眼於降低中國和我們供應鏈的風險。正如唐所提到的,自從上一項關稅政策實施以來,我們已經取得了重大進展。我們在後半段一直在加速,現在你可以看到我們的成果。

  • Now, we are going to continue to drive those actions, and we're going to continue to accelerate those supply chain moves. And we know how to do it. We're in the process of doing it. And candidly, we really have never stopped doing it. It's right on strategy for us as an organization because we do have a very large US manufacturing footprint, which is unique from our competition that we will continue to leverage as we go forward.

    現在,我們將繼續推動這些行動,並繼續加快這些供應鏈舉措。我們知道如何做。我們正在進行此事。坦白說,我們確實從未停止這樣做。這對我們公司來說是正確的策略,因為我們確實在美國擁有非常大的製造足跡,這與我們的競爭對手不同,我們將在未來繼續利用這一優勢。

  • And then lastly and kind of the more shorter-term aspect is saying, how do we need to make sure that we -- while we are working those other angles and those other parts of the plan are able to offset the immediate impact working with our channel partners and our end users on pricing actions. Now, as we look to continue to mitigate that will be a part of the of the mix but -- and it will certainly be the nearest term impact on that, which is remaining that we have yet to mitigate.

    最後,從更短期的角度來看,我們如何確保——在我們從其他角度和計劃的其他部分開展工作的同時,能夠抵消與我們的通路合作夥伴和最終用戶合作對定價行動的直接影響。現在,當我們尋求繼續緩解時,這將成為其中的一部分,但這肯定是近期對此產生的影響,而剩下的影響我們尚未緩解。

  • So we feel really good about the plan we have in place and more importantly, the team we have executing. And I think that I would just underscore the comments that we made earlier that we have full confidence in our long-term financial targets and margin aspirations that we talked about during the Investor Day. And as tariffs come into place, it may be a temporary headwind as we navigate the implementation plan we talked about but it's not going to have any long-term impact on our ability to reach those targets that we've laid out.

    因此,我們對現有的計劃感到非常滿意,更重要的是,我們對執行計劃的團隊感到非常滿意。我認為我只想強調我們之前所發表的評論,即我們對投資者日期間談到的長期財務目標和利潤率願望充滿信心。隨著關稅的實施,這可能會成為我們執行所談論的實施計劃過程中的一個暫時阻力,但不會對我們實現所製定的目標產生任何長期影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的麥可‧雷豪特 (Michael Rehaut)。

  • Michael Rehaut - Analyst

    Michael Rehaut - Analyst

  • I wanted to maybe just circle back a little bit, appreciating the answer -- the detailed answer you just gave before on tariffs. But maybe just to kind of -- if I missed a couple of elements of it and just wanted to zero in on a couple of areas of clarification. First off, I believe at the Investor Day and previously, you talked about a potential $200 million headwind from China if tariffs went from 25% to 60%. How does that reconcile with the 10% incremental on China tariffs being 90 to 100. So it feels like I'm missing something there on the prior math or the current math.

    我想稍微回顧一下,感謝您之前就關稅問題給出的詳細回答。但也許只是為了 — — 如果我錯過了其中的幾個要素,而只是想集中澄清幾個領域。首先,我相信在投資者日和之前,您談到如果關稅從 25% 上升到 60%,中國可能會帶來 2 億美元的逆風。這與中國關稅增加 10% (90 比 100)如何協調?所以感覺我遺漏了之前的數學或當前的數學中的一些東西。

  • And also just to confirm in terms of the plan to mitigate, I would think and I appreciate the fact that maybe these components are a little fluid but I would think that in 2025, it would be primarily done through price and at the same time, setting up actions maybe for '26 to have any benefits from supply chain changes, if that's the right way to think about it? And if there's also any similar types of thoughts around your exposure to Mexico if those tariffs do come down the line also if there are any similar plans in place?

    另外,只是為了確認緩解計劃,我認為並且我理解這些組成部分可能有些不穩定,但我認為在 2025 年,這將主要透過價格來實現,同時,也許制定行動讓 2026 年從供應鏈變化中受益,如果這是正確的想法的話?如果這些關稅真的出台,您對墨西哥的影響是否也有類似的想法,是否還有類似的計畫?

  • Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Donald Allan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. Well, I'll start. So I think Chris did a very good job articulating our plan around tariffs. And yes, as you said, the first steps will be around price. There will be obviously delays associated with that because we have to work with our customers to get these types of things in place. We also have to see if the situation settles down, it's still very fluid right now. And so those are all factors that we'll consider.

    是的。好,我先開始了。所以我認為克里斯非常好地闡明了我們的關稅計劃。是的,正如您所說,第一步將圍繞價格。顯然這會出現一些延誤,因為我們必須與客戶合作來完成這些事情。我們還必須看看局勢是否會穩定下來,目前情況仍然非常不穩定。這些都是我們會考慮的因素。

  • In the meantime, as Chris said, we are continuing to move forward in our supply chain mitigation actions. If anything, we're accelerating them even faster than we were in the back half of last year. And so we will continue to move quickly to make permanent fixes versus just pricing fixes. And so there's things that we'll continue to focus our energy on and we feel like we have a very good plan to address this that both he and I mentioned. Mexico, you can see from the pie chart, what the number is. And so it's a guess as to where that might go but you can do the math yourself on that particular one.

    同時,正如克里斯所說,我們正在繼續推進供應鏈緩解行動。不管怎樣,我們的加速速度比去年下半年還要快。因此,我們將繼續迅速採取行動,採取永久性修復措施,而不僅僅是修復價格。因此,我們將繼續專注於處理這些事情,我們覺得我們有一個很好的計劃來解決他和我都提到的這個問題。墨西哥,您可以從餅圖中看到這個數字是多少。因此,這只是對於其可能去向何方的猜測,但您可以自己對這一具體情況進行計算。

  • And I'll have Pat answer the question on the $200 million versus this current scenario.

    我讓帕特來回答有關 2 億美元與當前情況的問題。

  • Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Don. And I'd start just with echoing what Chris was communicating is we're focused on our long-term margin objectives. And so everything we're doing in addressing the tariff situation is to keep ourselves on the appropriate margin trajectory so we can invest in innovation and brand building and field support. So that's what underpins all of this, Mike.

    謝謝,唐。我首先要重複克里斯的觀點,那就是我們專注於我們的長期利潤目標。因此,我們為解決關稅問題所做的一切都是為了保持適當的利潤率軌跡,以便我們能夠投資於創新、品牌建立和現場支援。所以這就是這一切的基礎,麥克。

  • The first question you had around the difference between the China scenario, we communicated in the fall versus the present is really the fall scenario was confined to List 301 up through Part 4A. And so it was a narrower set of SKUs, but a higher obvious increase. And this is a lower increase, but basically, as we understand the current executive order, it's not confined to any set of SKUs. So that's the difference between the two scenarios of $90 million to $100 million. Today is an incremental 10% on everything versus in the past, it was going from 25% to 60% on a narrower set of things. And that's really the difference.

    您提出的第一個問題是,我們在秋季傳達的中國情景與現在的情景之間的區別,秋季情景實際上僅限於第 301 號清單至第 4A 部分。因此,SKU 範圍較窄,但增幅明顯較高。這是較低的增幅,但基本上,據我們了解目前的行政命令,它並不局限於任何一組 SKU。這就是 9,000 萬美元到 1 億美元這兩種情況之間的差額。如今,所有事物的稅率都呈現 10% 的增量,而過去,稅率在較窄的範圍內從 25% 上升至 60%。這就是真正的區別。

  • And then as Don mentioned, about 20%-ish of our global COGS base predominantly in the Tools and Outdoor business comes from Mexico. But just as we're doing right now with China, should anything materialize in Mexico, we will wait some days or weeks to make sure the dust has settled and -- or at least settled sufficiently so that any move we're making kind of reflects potential knock-on effects, and we're kind of making one set of moves with our channel partners instead of whipsawing day-to-day or week-to-week.

    正如唐納所提到的,我們全球銷售成本基數的約 20%(主要在工具和戶外業務)來自墨西哥。但就像我們現在對中國所做的那樣,如果墨西哥出現任何進展,我們也會等待幾天或幾週,以確保塵埃落定——或者至少充分平息,以便我們所做的任何舉措都能反映出潛在的連鎖反應,並且我們會與我們的渠道合作夥伴採取一套一致的舉措,而不是日復一日或週復一周地進行反复調整。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

    Rob Wertheimer,Melius Research。

  • Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

    Rob Wertheimer - Analyst

  • And just you guys have covered tariffs pretty well and just to switch away for a minute. I wanted to ask about the composition of core growth and tools of core growth basically, where you had 2% North America, 8% Rest of World, 4% in Europe. So it's kind of the opposite what I would have guessed some ways. Anything structural going on there with share gain with presence? Maybe you could just comment on that.

    你們已經很好地討論了關稅問題,現在讓我們暫時轉換話題。我想問核心成長的組成和核心成長工具的基本情況,其中北美佔 2%,世界其他地區佔 8%,歐洲佔 4%。因此,這和我的猜測有些相反。隨著份額的增加和存在感的增強,是否存在任何結構性變化?或許您可以對此發表評論。

  • Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

    Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

  • So I think that we -- I'll cover North America first and just say that we -- our -- the strategy and the focus that we laid out over a year ago is bearing fruit with the professional as we see a stronger professional market and a stronger professional end user. And specifically, you can see that progress with the DEWALT. And that, coupled with the fact that we have continued to make progress, specifically in North America on our ability to service our customers and improving our fill rates that will allow us to continue to be able to entertain new opportunities for increased presence in their assortment has made a nice difference that we see in North America.

    因此我認為我們 - 我將首先介紹北美,並說我們 - 我們的 - 一年前製定的策略和重點正在專業人士中取得成果,因為我們看到了更強大的專業市場和更強大的專業終端用戶。具體來說,您可以看到 DEWALT 的進步。再加上我們不斷取得進展,特別是在北美,我們在服務客戶的能力和提高供應率方面取得了進展,這將使我們能夠繼續抓住新的機會,增加產品種類的存在感,這使得我們在北美看到了良好的變化。

  • As far as, if I go over to EMEA, I would say that a part of what we laid out as well is that we were going to look at making incremental investments in key markets that we saw not only a share gain opportunity but we also saw evolving in a better growth trajectory than some of the other more traditional markets. We've made those investments, and we're seeing tremendous payback on those, and we're seeing a lot of a lot of progress and once again, specifically with some of our DEWALT offerings.

    至於歐洲、中東和非洲地區,我想說,我們也計劃在關鍵市場進行增量投資,我們不僅看到了份額成長機會,而且看到了比其他一些更傳統的市場更好的成長軌跡。我們進行了這些投資,並看到了巨大的回報,我們看到了很多進展,特別是我們的一些 DEWALT 產品。

  • So those are kind of like the key underpinnings that we see in the share growth that we would -- as we pointed out, in a market that we're thinking about for 2025 as being relatively flat, and then we are reflecting the progress that we're seeing in those areas into our guide.

    因此,這些有點像我們在份額成長中看到的關鍵基礎 — — 正如我們所指出的,在我們考慮的 2025 年市場中,我們將把我們在這些領域看到的進展反映到我們的指南中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Adam Baumgarten, Zelman & Associates.

    亞當‧鮑姆加登 (Adam Baumgarten),澤爾曼及合夥人。

  • Adam Baumgarten - Analyst

    Adam Baumgarten - Analyst

  • Just on the promotional environment, you did mention a solid promotional season. Did that have any negative impact on gross margin in the quarter? And then maybe how you're thinking about '25 from a promotional perspective?

    就促銷環境而言,您確實提到了一個強勁的促銷季。這對本季的毛利率產生負面影響嗎?那麼也許您是從促銷的角度來考慮 25 年的?

  • Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Patrick Hallinan - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Adam. I wouldn't call it negative because we're quite satisfied with the promotional placement that we had in the fourth quarter and the way we executed with our channel partners and what it delivered in the terms of growth. It was a slight marginal headwind to the quarter, obviously, because of what a promotion is.

    是的,亞當。我不會稱之為負面,因為我們對第四季度的促銷活動、與通路合作夥伴的合作方式以及在成長方面取得的成果感到非常滿意。顯然,由於促銷的原因,這對本季來說是一個輕微的不利因素。

  • But I would say that '24 was a year where like at the end of '23, we were getting very much back towards our traditional promotional cadence, '24 was probably the first full year where we had both the supply chain and the calendarization back at the level we would expect to persist. And so I think it played a great role in making for a strong fourth quarter for us.

    但我想說,24 年就像 23 年底一樣,我們基本上恢復了傳統的促銷節奏,24 年可能是我們的供應鏈和日曆都恢復到預期水準的第一個完整年份。因此我認為這對我們第四季的強勁表現發揮了巨大作用。

  • And on the margin, it was a bit of a gross margin headwind. But I would say that things like automotive mix were a bit more of a headwind in the quarter than promotion.

    從利潤率來看,這對毛利率造成了一定程度的阻力。但我想說,本季的不利因素比促銷因素更大。

  • But Chris, anything you would add on the promotional.

    但是克里斯,你還有什麼可以在促銷中添加的嗎?

  • Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

    Christopher Nelson - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and President Tools & Outdoor

  • The only thing I would add to that is while it does manifest itself with a very modest price impact in the quarter that we talked about. The placement that we received and getting back to the kind of where we see the healthy level of placement from a promotion that the space that we captured was to promote products that are accretive. So we feel good about our promotional positioning and feel good about coming back and capturing some of that share of that promotional space.

    我唯一想補充的是,雖然它確實在我們討論的這個季度表現出非常適度的價格影響。我們收到的展示位置以及我們看到的促銷的健康展示位置水平,我們捕獲的空間是用於推廣增值產品。因此,我們對我們的促銷定位感到很滿意,並且很高興能夠捲土重來並佔領部分促銷空間份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Dennis Lange for closing remarks.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給丹尼斯·蘭格,請他作最後發言。

  • Dennis Lange - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Dennis Lange - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Shannon. We'd like to thank everyone again for their time and participation on the call. Obviously, please contact me if you have any further questions. Thank you.

    謝謝,香農。我們想再次感謝大家在電話會議上付出的時間和參與。顯然,如果您還有其他問題,請與我聯絡。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。