Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Smurfit Kappa Group 2020 full year results.

(Operator Instructions) Just to remind you: This conference call is being recorded.

Today, I'm pleased to present Tony Smurfit. Please go ahead with your meeting.

Thank you, operator. And good morning, ladies and gentlemen. You're all very welcome to our 2020 full year results presentation, where I'm delighted to be joined by our group CFO, Ken Bowles.

As is customary, I will draw your attention to Slide 2 and the disclaimer, and this -- we'll take this as read.

As we've been saying for the last number of years, Smurfit Kappa is a transformed and transforming business. The quality of our asset base; our internal and external focus, particularly on our 65,000 customers; and our integrated business model and geographic spreads have continued to deliver excellent results, consistently delivering for all stakeholders. That quality is reflected by today's performance with a reported EBITDA outcome of EUR 1,510 million, significantly ahead of our stated guidance; a leverage multiple of 1.6x, which gives us significant financial flexibility; and strong and record free cash flow for the year of EUR 675 million. The free cash flow number reflects the continuing benefits of prior and effective capital spend.

As an expression of the Board's confidence in this performance and future prospects, a final dividend increase of 8% is proposed. Again we would like to record our sincere appreciation for each and every one of our 46,000 employees, who continue to deliver consistently outstanding performance. Their capacity to adapt, providing continuity for the customers' vital supply chains, has really been truly exemplary.

In Smurfit Kappa, we've always said that you cannot over-communicate. This principle extends to all stakeholders. Myself and Ken conducted over 200-plus virtual plant visits during this restricted period. This builds on the success of our employee engagement survey, where we had an over 90% support for Smurfit Kappa Group's approach during the pandemic from our employees. The strength of our integrated model ensured we provided continuity of supply for all customers throughout these extraordinary times, including all vital supply chains. For our shareholders, we are pleased to continue to deliver. Smurfit Kappa Group again delivered a progressive dividend. Our successful EUR 660 million capital raise will serve as a future catalyst for another phase of growth and development for our company from a position of enhanced financial strength.

In Smurfit Kappa, we are a big believer in giving back and do not subscribe to the Milton Friedman school of economics. We have a broader societal and community-related responsibilities. We have repaid the government employment support schemes related to the COVID-19 pandemic. And as we've always done, we continue to support the communities in which we operate. Indeed, in the past year, we redoubled our efforts as part of our response to the pandemic. As the leader in our industry, we've again announced a new set of enhanced sustainability targets across our focus areas of people, planet and business. All employees of Smurfit Kappa are especially proud to pay -- to play our part in making this a better planet through our packaging.

I would now like to spend a few minutes on the unrivaled commercial offerings Smurfit Kappa delivers to its customers, the quality of the business you've invested in and the business that continues to deliver.

2020 saw a number of records broken in our European business across health and safety; quality; production; and in many instances, EBITDA. We also completed a number of important strategic capital projects, which have set us up well for future growth. This, of course, is in advance of the acceleration of investments that we intend to make. In Europe, we're the #1 in the market for corrugated boxes, containerboard and bag-in-box, with operations across 23 countries from Portugal to Russia, from Norway to Greece. A cornerstone of this is our world-class integrated system, which in 2020 delivered a record production of containerboard, reflecting the success of both our internal investments and our disciplined acquisitions. This has allowed our corrugated facilities to deliver for our customers, the last few months being particularly challenging.

Beyond the security of supply and the chain-of-custody credentials of our system, the integrated model has -- as I said, continues to deliver. As evidenced by this slide, the resilience of our EBITDA and EBITDA margins is demonstrated by the business model of being roughly balanced between paper and corrugated. We continue to build on our #1 positions with investments in different product areas such as bag-in-box, where we now have production facilities in 7 countries; and in our paper-making system, where we continue to invest to enhance efficiency and cost. Our #1 corrugated position is truly irreplaceable, with the ability to serve local and pan-European customers from a multitude of sites across Europe.

Looking to the Americas, where we've been operating for 40 years. As in Europe, our strategy focused on building strong market positions supported by a very well-invested integrated system. As a result, we're the only significant pan-American player, and this provides for exciting partnership opportunities with our multinational customers. Our America business had a truly outstanding year, with excellent EBITDA margins of 19.7% for the year and over 20% in the second half. This reflects on our people, our positioning, the recovery in certain markets and our strong focus of investing behind growth. Needless to say, we still see tremendous opportunities to further augment our positions in this region.

This region, however, is somewhat behind Europe in relation to structural growth drivers such as e-commerce and sustainability, but this is where we can capitalize on our experiences from Europe in the region. There is mounting evidence whether through legislation or consumer behavior that sustainability and e-commerce will play a much bigger role in our future development. Just some small examples to illustrate this are that our own e-commerce growth was 70% in Brazil and over 150% in Mexico, albeit from a low base. Interestingly also, corrugated as the merchandising medium in stores is finding an even bigger base of support, and I'll show you an example of this in a few seconds.

In terms of our market offering and the network of innovation -- innovators across our group. As I've mentioned before, it is impossible, impossible, to replicate the depth of data, experience and expertise that Smurfit Kappa has. In the new world of data analytics and integrated systems, Smurfit Kappa has centralized a library of information where we harvest years of data from across the world on all packaging tests, packaging trials, packaging supply chains and consumer research that we've carried out. This gives us a huge competitive advantage when talking to our 65,000 customers; and their own challenges, whether they be in sustainability, protection, costs or graphics or whatever. Our totally unique mine of information is constantly being added to. And we intend to be able to offer customers a new experience in speed to market in the coming months, especially as it relates to e-commerce and Frustration-Free Packaging.

There are many structural drivers that are presenting corrugated solutions with a great future in the areas of sustainable packaging, e-commerce, changing consumer habits and supply chain optimization. Our customers need partners who can develop solutions that will be successful [of] speed to market, can optimize their production processes or help them enhance their sales. Smurfit Kappa has uniquely proven that we can do all of the above. An example of a paper-based solution to plastic packaging is -- in the drinks industry is our patented TopClip. This product range, while still in its infancy, has a very significant potential. And the first high-speed packing line will be implemented in the Netherlands in May. This well-received consumer product has significant potential for growth as our customers work hard to remove plastic where it is unnecessary. We have recently launched our e-commerce portfolio of products, which has created a great amount of active leads, with pre-tested and certified packages to allow for our customers to trade online with innovative tried-and-tested solutions. Consumers are wanting to have more sustainable packaging. We have many examples and innovations which are going to cater in the years ahead to this mega trend. Just one small example recently is our development with the world-class company Ferrero for a paper-based tube and a unique packaging line for their wonderful product Nutella biscuits. This is partnership truly in action. I can, of course, advise you to eat this delicious biscuit, as you'll undoubtedly eat the entire tube as they're so good.

Corrugated as a merchandising medium remains a key added-value mega trend for our industry. With more and more high-quality graphics, innovations in digital print and the need for customers to be shelf smart, corrugated packaging represents the best products to capture consumer retention in a sustainable way. Led by our numerous innovation and knowledge, whether in display, transport and market awareness, Smurfit Kappa is able to deliver solutions second to none.

Just to show you a couple of these examples of innovation coming to life, you'll see how we developed a recent online solution for PepsiCo in Europe. PepsiCo were looking for an exciting new way to engage with their customers at Christmas time and also be suitable for shipping via Amazon. Smurfit Kappa designed and produced 100% paper-based advent calendar. Our corrugated box was the physical calendar for the month of December that allowed consumers to open each day and get their PepsiCo treat. As you can see from this slide, it was sold out and created a buzz online with popular online sites talking about the cool crisp-filled calendar. This kind of innovation is going to personalize more and more in the future, and it is certainly a mega trend where companies wish to promote and increase their brand awareness and sales. Turning to our Americas business, in our Brazilian operation you can see a great example of how designing a more engaging consumer experience with high-quality shelf-ready packaging can actually drive increased sales, in this case up 18%, using our ShelfSmart technology. Further still, the retailers loved it, as it cut restocking times in half, saving them labor costs. Delivering for our customers and their customers, again and again, is this kind of packaging solution, especially in the Americas as this is in its infancy.

As I've mentioned before, we have a very strong and growing bag-in-box business, where we are the #1 in Europe and #2 in the world; and with a very strong operating presence across Canada, Mexico and Argentina. In 2020, we saw record sales and EBITDA as our sustainable product was consumed by more and more people. In addition to the example of the Tide box for Procter & Gamble, which you saw at our results presentation last year, which by the way has grown strongly, above this -- above here you'll see a Spanish solution for water which is more sustainable than competing products and obviously used a lot more corrugated. The water market for bag-in-box offers enormous potential for future growth. These innovations clearly demonstrate the increased value and application of corrugated for our customers.

And finally, before I hand over to Ken, on this page you'll see just some of the awards we have for innovation, community engagement and even financial reporting. This is -- of course, is only a snapshot but, hopefully, gives you a sense that we have truly an unrivaled market offering and our peers and communities recognize this.

Now I'll hand you over to Ken, who'll take you through sustainability and our financial results.

Thanks, Tony. And good morning, everyone.

Tony has just talked about the unrivaled commercial offering we have in Smurfit Kappa. And in a moment, we'll see how that's translated into the delivery of strong financial results across our operations, but first I want to look at our recently released targets across a number of categories within sustainability. Most of you who have followed Smurfit Kappa for some time now know our commitment to sustainability. This year will be our 14th sustainable development report. That commitment is both from the product perspective and the manner in which we produce that product. Quite simply, we make a sustainable product in a sustainable way. A couple of weeks ago, we announced ambitious new targets as part of our Better Planet 2050 initiative.

Better Planet 2050 outlines our continued commitment to sustainability, targeting environmental and social sustainability in areas where we believe we can have the greatest impact. These include delivering sustainable packaging to customers; reducing our environmental footprint in water usage, waste and carbon emissions; supporting our communities; promoting inclusion and diversity; as well as health and safety. The targets identified are specific, measurable; and provide a road map to deliver results in the short, medium and longer term. Of particular note is our recent announcement in relation to carbon reduction. Having made strong progress towards our target of a 40% intensity reduction by 2030, we have now revised that target upwards to 55%. In 2020, we also announced our ambition to be at least net 0 on CO2 emissions by 2050. We are in the process of having these targets confirmed by the Science Based Targets initiative as being in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By committing to all of these targets, our already sustainable products will continue to be produced using less resources, less energy; and create less waste. In providing and developing innovative paper-based packaging solutions reducing the group's impact on the planet, we can make a positive contribution to the world and help our customers to deliver on their own short- and long-term sustainability goals.

Turning to our full year results.

We are pleased to deliver another strong performance in 2020. This performance again illustrates the benefits of everything we do from both an investment and a cultural perspective, a performance-led culture working on the foundations of a quality asset base and a focus on innovation and sustainability. It is also important to remember that these results have been delivered against the backdrop of a global pandemic, a significant operational challenge that the group worked hard to overcome. The lessons learned and the practices implemented have been a demonstration of the best in our people, who adapted and delivered for one another and most importantly for our customers.

Group revenue was EUR 8.5 billion for the year, down 6% on 2019 or 3% on an underlying basis. The fall represents primarily currency impact, the impact of falling containerboard prices and the subsequent impact on box prices during the year. And although down 9% to EUR 1.51 billion and negatively impacted also by currency, EBITDA for the group is still ahead of our own expectations as recently as November last year as a result of strong demand, particularly during the latter part of the fourth quarter.

We saw a reduction in the EBITDA margin from 18.2% in 2019 to 17.7% in 2020. However, this is still the second highest full year margin in the history of the group. The margin for the year reflects a lower margin year-on-year in Europe but pleasingly a significantly higher margin in the Americas. The results reflect the fall in box prices and to a lesser extent the impact of COVID-19, mitigated by the resilience of the group's integrated model, the benefits of our customer-focused industry-leading innovation and sustainability initiatives, further engagement with customers through virtual seminars, our capital spend programs, rigorous cost management and lower year-on-year recovered fiber costs.

Free cash flow for the year was EUR 675 million, a 23% increase on the EUR 547 million delivered in 2019. The EBITDA reduction of EUR 140 million and exceptional outflows were more than offset by lower outflows for capital expenditure, cash interest and a higher working capital inflow. The management of working capital has always been and remains a key focus for us. And the working capital as a percentage of sales is 5.6% at December 2020, 7.2% at December 2019; and is yet another illustration of the group's operational excellence and cash flow management under all circumstances. Our disciplined approach to capital allocation can also be seen in the reduction in cash interest year-on-year as a result of recent refinancings.

With a strong business profile and our ability to consistently deliver substantial free cash flow, the group is aiming to achieve and maintain investment-grade credit ratings and a leverage range of 1.5x to 2x. With the current investment program, we will aim to get the midpoint of that range through the cycle. During the fourth quarter of 2020, Fitch upgraded the group's long-term issuer rating to BBB- with stable outlook from BB+ with positive outlook, highlighting the group's strengthened financial structure following the equity raise and investment plan announced in November of last year.

Finally, reflecting the confidence that we and the Board have in the group and indeed the strength and resilience of the cash flows and, of course, our future prospects, we are pleased to announce an 8% increase in the final dividend to EUR 0.874 per share. This represents a full year increase of 6%.

Turning now to our European operations and their performance in 2020. EBITDA decreased by 11% to EUR 1.18 billion primarily as a result of lower paper prices and the effect on average box prices. The EBITDA margin at 17.8% was down from 19% in 2019 but is still close to historical highs, representing resilient pricing and is very much in line with our expectations.

Box demand was up 2% for the year, which when you consider the year that was in it is a very strong result. In the second half, having been flat for the first 6 months, box volumes were up over 3%. The year ended particularly well, up nearly 6% in the fourth quarter, and we've seen that strong performance continue through the early part of this year. We are also beginning to see an acceleration in demand for our Better Planet Packaging products as a result of changing consumer trends and patterns and our customers' desire for ever more sustainable packaging. And finally, we continued to progress the group's capital investment plans in 2020. And the group continues to be at the forefront of innovation in our sector with unique applications delivering sustainable packaging solutions for our customers.

And now turning to the Americas. In the Americas, for the year, EBITDA increased by 3% to EUR 372 million. The EBITDA margin also continued to improve from 17.5% in 2019 to 19.7% in 2020.

As you know, we have operated in the Americas for over 40 years. It's always been a region of high growth, strong free cash flow generation and significant opportunity. The business we have built is best placed to continue to provide that growth and opportunity for the group in the region but, more importantly, best placed to ensure we can support our customers in the region as they venture more into the structural growth drivers of e-commerce and sustainability. Colombia, Mexico and the U.S. accounted for almost 90% of the region's earnings with strong performances in all 3 countries. Volumes in the region started the year strongly but were subsequently heavily impacted by COVID-19-related lockdowns during the second quarter. The third quarter showed positive volume growth, and in the fourth quarter, demand was up over 9% versus the prior year. As a result, volumes for the full year were up approximately 2% year-on-year. And similarly to Europe, the year has started in a strong fashion. Our pan-American sales offering integrated with our experience center network, the acceleration in the adoption of e-commerce and the continued promotion and awareness around our Better Planet Packaging initiatives, coupled with the benefits derived from our own investments in the region in recent years, continue to deliver growth for ourselves and for our customers in the region.

It is worth pausing for a moment to reiterate again the rationale behind our equity raise last year. Most of you will be aware that, in November of last year, we placed approximately 8% of the issued share capital of the group to accelerate the next phase of growth for our business. The premise is simple. We have an abundance of opportunities that we wish to pursue to continue to lead in our industry not only from an operational perspective but also through innovation and sustainability too.

It's clear that the structural drivers of the growth we have spoken about in the past have only accelerated during 2020. The pandemic accelerated the already strong growth of e-commerce. COVID-19 forced those less familiar with shopping online to make that first step and pushed those with -- already familiar with online shopping further down that path. There has developed an even greater awareness and appreciation for our planet. We were all too familiar with plastic waste, with imagery of polluted rivers and seas, but COVID-19 has not dimmed the desire of the consumer for more sustainable product. And companies, our customers, are responding more and more to that demand, disposing of single-use plastic packaging; and replacing it with renewable, recyclable and biodegradable paper-based packaging. We also all appreciated the collective need to reduce our environmental footprint, but again we can see an acceleration in the need and awareness for companies to address their own sustainability issues. We spoke earlier of the actions that Smurfit Kappa is taking in this particular topic. The key point here is that we will continue to be the partner of choice for those companies looking to have class-leading sustainability standards throughout their supply chains. What is clear is that these trends around sustainability are here to stay.

Within our own system, we continue to see our investments in high-growth geographies delivering. It's not restricted to the Americas, but the EBITDA margin and growth levels coming from that segment are a simple illustration of that point. Something that is appreciated by our customers across our network is the approach that SKG takes to innovation. The gathering of data, the use of bespoke applications, the sharing of expertise and importantly the approach of our people means that SKG delivers the most innovative product to the market. Tony earlier presented some examples representing only a tiny fraction of the type of work we do with our customers.

Finally and something that's always been part of the growth and development of SKG is a disciplined approach to M&A. Opportunities to grow through M&A exist today, and SKG will participate at the right time and at the right price.

So we will be investing between EUR 1.2 billion and EUR 1.4 billion in the structural drivers of growth, the sustainability needs of our own operations and in further increasing operational efficiency. As mentioned earlier, the acceleration in e-commerce as a driver of growth is undeniable. The need to protect the planet, although acknowledged as a necessity for some time, is hopefully being addressed in a more meaningful way. Both of these trends will continue to drive and indeed accelerate demand for our product. Some examples of what we're investing in as we move through 2021 are on the slide. Across our operations in Europe and the Americas, we're investing in mega plants; upgraded a new corrugating, conversion and printing machinery; as well as sustainability-related products in our paper -- projects in our paper mill systems that will deliver energy efficiency, CO2 reduction, waste reduction but also increased contribution.

Finally, the usual reminder on how we see capital allocation as a framework. As I mentioned earlier, with a net debt-to-EBITDA of 1.6x, the strength of the group's balance sheet continues to secure long-term strategic flexibility. We believe capital allocated to internal projects is key to the continued growth and performance of the business. The opportunity set I mentioned earlier is real and we're investing behind those opportunities. Given our expertise in implementing projects, this tends to be the lowest-risk allocation of capital. Equally, we remain disciplined when it comes to potential M&A. As always, we have a number of projects in the pipeline focused on building out our strong geographic network or further enhancing our product portfolio. We will, of course, be disciplined around those and, as always, benchmark them against all other capital allocation alternatives.

The dividend is a key pillar of capital allocation. It's an input rather than output, and there is no clear evidence of this than our actions relating to our dividend through 2020. The increase in the final dividend is yet another illustration of our belief in the future prospects and cash generation ability of SKG. We have repeatedly said and demonstrated that we are effective stewards of capital. This will remain the case with the internal investment projects I referred to on the previous slide. They [most] collectively contribute towards the group meeting its ROCE target of 17%. And the final point to make is quite simple: We've always been prudent and we will always remain prudent and considerate when it comes to cash preservation and distribution.

I'll now hand you back to Tony for some concluding remarks.

Thank you, Ken.

5 years ago, Smurfit Kappa set out a new vision for our future. I'm really excited to say that, across all of the dynamic [adjectives], we're moving in a very positive direction. Both internally with customers and a multitude of other stakeholders, our company continues on its journey to be a more globally admired business. We have shown over the years through acquisitions and our strategic plan implementation that we are delivering with quality earnings that are more and more secure due to the integrated model and, on top of this, due to our cash flow generation. Our leverage multiple has now improved significantly. Because of our innovation that we've talked about and the mega trends in our business and our ability to put those mega trends into action for our stakeholders, we continue to deliver better and better returns.

As we enter 2021, while there will always be challenges, I can confidently say that our business today has never been in better shape. We have a diversified, stable and highly skilled team who have consistently delivered for stakeholders. Our extensive geographic asset base is better and better positioned both from an asset quality and market position to give our customers an unparalleled market offering. As I said to you in Q3, our industry and Smurfit Kappa as the leader is very well positioned to take advantage of the opportunities ahead of us. To use our corporate maxim: Opportunity comes to pass, not to pause. And as such, our capital raise allows us to take advantage of these opportunities in the years ahead in an accelerated manner. In terms of current trading, we've seen a continuation of the demand trends seen in the last quarter, and while there is uncertainty about the impacts and duration of COVID-19, the current year has started well.

While you'll often hear me say that success is never a straight line, I believe the outlook for Smurfit Kappa has never been better. We have the asset base. We have the market offering. We have the balance sheet. And most importantly, we have the people and the culture to capitalize on the opportunities that we see ahead of us.

Operator, I'll now take any questions from the audience. And we'll -- it's over to you.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Barry Dixon from Davy.

Tony, Ken, well done, great performance. A couple of questions from me. So just looking at that sort of 6% growth in demand in Europe in Q4, Tony, how are you looking out into 2021? And I know you've talked about the structural drivers. I suppose, in the first half, you'll have easy comps, but as you get into the second half, the comps become a little bit more difficult. But maybe just sort of give us a bit more color in that demand environment. How much do you think is kind of cyclical, and how much is structural? And so when we think about maybe moving beyond the pandemic, how that demand environment plays out post that. Second question is just in terms of the ROCE. And I know, Ken, you mentioned that, towards the end of the presentation, the 17%. Given the 14.5% that you reported in 2020, is that 17% still a very valid target or an ambition for the group through the cycle?

And then just lastly, on M&A. And if you are thinking about M&A, can you just maybe give us some thoughts around kind of where and what? Is it more on the corrugated side? Is it more Europe? Or is it just purely opportunistic as things of interest come along?

Okay, I'll let Ken take the last 2 questions, Barry, but basically yes. I mean obviously the 6% demand was exceptional. I think, as you correctly stated, Q1 actually was reasonably good last year with an especially strong January, so to be ahead 6% is really a real number. When we look at Q4 versus the previous year, it's basically -- it's a pandemic but also structural demand growth, I will say. I mean you see e-commerce is not going to go away. Sustainability is not going to go away. And so I think the first half will be strong as we're in the pandemic period still. The second quarter has very weak comparisons, I will say. So we should see a little bit continuation of the kind of trends we've seen in the latter part of the year. And then really, Barry, it's your point of view on what's going to happen assuming that we do come out of the pandemic in the second half and vaccines are given to people and people start to feel freer. My own personal view is that demand will continue to be very strong because there is a lot of pent-up demand for spending in the real world, so to speak, not at home. That will happen in the second half, but that's your own personal view. I think overall we'd be optimistic about the year. Whether it's at 6%, it's probably a little bit optimistic, but it's certainly we feel bullish. And there's nothing we've seen in the first 5 weeks of the year would take our mind away from that bullishness. Ken?

Barry, on the ROCE, yes. The -- I mean the 17% still remains the target. If you'll remember, we had a target of 15% for a long time. And clearly, we were at or above that most of the time, so it made sense to kind of raise the target. I suppose the fundamental question is do we believe this is a group of assets and investments that can deliver the 17%, and I think the short answer to that is yes, as we have done in the last couple of years. I mean you sort of consider the 14.6%. A, it includes leasing, so you can argue it's probably close to 15% in that sense but also against the backdrop of a down year in a sense. So still a very strong performance for the underlying business, but no, the 17% remains where we think this business will get in the cycle. And indeed the plans are built around that, as I said in the presentation.

On M&A, we tend not to rule anywhere out or anywhere in. It tends to be where we see opportunities to build out, whether it's geographies or indeed the product portfolio in the first instance. And clearly downstream, given our paper system is probably more fit at the moment -- and if you think back to what happened a couple of years ago when we bought Parenco, that was opportunistic, but clearly we were able to build on the success of Parenco in the paper to kind of build out for Caradec and through Belgrade in Serbia and complete that kind of Balkan picture. So we tend to think about M&A not only in the context of the asset itself but how that asset fits into the overall portfolio of the group and indeed strategically how it fits in. So it's no limits to geography, no limits to kind of product. It really is about how and where do we think we can take that business as part of the bigger Smurfit Kappa Group.

Sorry, Ken. Did you say that you're sort of okay on paper for now so that maybe that the focus might be more on downstream?

I...

I think we are okay on paper right now, Barry, but with the kind of demand that we're seeing -- and you know our philosophy is to be balanced. If the demand that we see goes through this year, we may have to relook at accelerating some of our plans on paper either buying an asset or building out an asset. So we'll have to consider that later in the year or in the early part of next year, but our -- the plan that we put forward is primarily a converted customer-facing plan. That's what planned -- that's what we raised money for.

Our next question comes from Lars Kjellberg from Crédit Suisse.

Just a couple of questions for me as well. The -- coming back to the demand trends. Of course, Q4 was exceptional in many ways. I can understand why the e-commerce gave that a real boost out of the holiday period, but it's less clear what is driving that strong growth now, so I just want to get some color from you. Were you seeing the continuation of those similar demand trends, again sustainable packaging [or] more cyclical areas or whatever it is? I mean also if you can comment about any potential wins in sustainable packaging and when you would be comfortable to talk about how big a share of your business that is. And then just moving on to pricing a bit. Of course, costs are rising. And of course, there's been containerboard price increases, and I would guess there's going to be potentially incremental such in the near term to compensate. The flip side to that, of course, last year was the resilience in box prices that you saw which was kind of unrivaled in history, so how should we think about you passing-on rising containerboard prices when customers didn't get the full benefit on the downside? So I just want to hear your thoughts on that.

And finally, I appreciate it's very difficult to give any particular guidance in terms of absolute numbers, but can you give us any sense about how you view the cadence of earnings in this year, meaning H1 versus H2, considering the upfront cost pressures that you typically have in a cyclical recovery and then obviously consequent box price recovery in H2? So again is sort of 45-55 split or whatever how you think about that? If you can share that with us, that would be helpful.

Yes. We have to remember what you said, Lars. So let's start with that. Let's start with the demand trend. I mean I think, Lars, you're right. E-commerce is definitely a trend that is accentuated in Q4, but at the same time, e-commerce is here to stay. And people have learned to shop differently and go online, and our customers are learning to supply online. So that, it may have a bit more seasonality when the pandemic is over, but for sure, there's going to be a continuation of growth of e-commerce because people have learned to do it. So where we're seeing demand trends is clearly people are spending money on their homes, which is things for TVs, kitchens, bedrooms, garden, things like that, that generally speaking, tend to use a bit more corrugated. And that's a positive. Where we see the negatives, of course, are on, let's say, this drinks businesses that are away from home and bars that we see a lack of some of the consumption from our customers in those areas, but as I said to Barry a few seconds ago, I do believe that, when the away from home starts getting back to normal, we'll see a large increase in that area which will offset some of the negativity that we might see on the at-home purchasing.

So I think, when you put into -- and then to the second part of your question, about sustainability. I mean, everywhere we look with all of our customers across the world, frankly, obviously more advanced in Europe but even in the Americas, we see more and more customers who are looking to move away from plastic-based packaging or polystyrene; or EPS, expanded polystyrene, I should say, where they can. And it takes a while. We have numerous, numerous, numerous examples of where we have been successful, but if you take for example the TopClip -- and as I say, we're still not 100% sure if that's going to work, but we do know that a major customer has ordered a major machine that is going to go to put this product into the marketplace. And the consumer likes it. It's a little bit more expensive than plastic, but it works. And it's probably the best product on the market in that space. Once one does it, assuming, we can have a reasonable assumption that another will -- another few will do it. And certainly there are plenty of big customers looking at it with our partner KHS, which is the supplier of choice to -- or certainly 1 of 2, the suppliers of choice, to the drinks, beer and soft drinks industry and -- for high-speed filling machines, I should say. And I mean the potential for that is truly enormous. I mean obviously we can't put numbers on it because we don't know yet, but -- and that's just one. I mean there's -- we put in there the box that is going to replace a plastic tub. We have a number of projects that we're working on with very, very big companies, but they take -- those kinds of things take a little while to come to fruition. But when they do and if they do, you're talking about many, many tonnes of corrugated that is going to be in the system.

So we just have a huge amount of people. What we're having -- I think we expect to have 800 customers coming to our Better Planet Packaging day in March, which will show some of these sustainability projects in action. And as I said on CNBC earlier, the world executives are moving towards this kind of thinking. And if the pandemic has taught at all anything, it's that we have to be good to our planet. And being good to our planet is not throwing single-use plastic in the sea. So I think it is a huge mega trend for us. It's continuing. And there will be some very, very sizable switches in the years ahead, which obviously I can't tell you which ones are going to be hugely successful yet, but on the ground there's loads of them. Ken?

Lars, if I understand your question correctly, it's around, if you like, the cost inflation pressures and how we see that falling through to box prices as we kind of progress. Clearly, the year started off with that level of cost inflation, the 2 biggest ones, if you like, in our system, being recovered fiber and where it currently sits and indeed energy, as kind of headwinds on last year. We are seeing general cost inflation. I think most people are, but those items are probably not material for us at the moment, and if they get material, we can tell you those. And I suppose then we have recent and near experience about how we deal with those kind of cost input pressures OCC into paper and to box and in the last couple of years, and you see the recovery of that through our system. Generally, that lag is [3 to 6], but I think in the last round of cost recovery we did better than that, quicker than that. So I don't think we'd expect any different in terms of pace and approach this time around with -- quite clearly, box makers in our system had a good year last year; startup in 2020 not having such a good year, so they need to get back onto the business of price increase and indeed are actively at that as we speak.

Got it. And in terms of are you prepared to give us a cadence of earnings in H1 versus H2 if you distribute full year.

I wish I had that crystal ball, Lars, at the moment. I think, clearly with paper going up, we will always suffer a small margin compression before we recover that through the box price as we get into latter part of Q1, into Q2 and beyond. At the moment, I've no clearer cadence than that, but I suppose we'll talk again fairly soon in April, May time, when we'll have a better view of how that's playing out.

Very good. And can you confirm you're out in the market with another containerboard price hike as we speak?

Yes. We announced a EUR 50 on kraftliner for February 1, which has been implemented. And we have announced a EUR 50 for recycled, which will be fully implemented, I will say, by the 1st of March. As I think I said earlier, the paper market is the tightest I have seen in 34 years of business. And obviously in that environment with rising costs of -- input costs, primarily in recovered fiber but also in energy, that means a necessity to increase paper prices and then ergo a necessity to increase box prices. And in a paper market where it's very, very tight across the world in every country that we operate, I think we should be very happy that we continue to be able to deliver customers through our integrated model. And that's something that was very, very strongly appreciated by all of our customers in Q4, where we know other people struggled where we were able -- with a lot of extra costs and a lot of chopping and changing, we were able to get to our customers their boxes on time. And I can't tell you how appreciative so many customers have been for that, and that is because of our network. And to your earlier question, or maybe it was Barry's, about the plans: That's one of the reasons why we may have to think a little bit quicker about paper as we go through this year if these kind of trends are to continue. It's something we're going to have to just scratch our head about because we want to make sure that we continue to deliver to our customers across all market conditions, and that's what they appreciate. And that's what they need from their partner, which is us.

Our next question comes from Justin Jordan from Exane.

One of the features of, I suppose, Q3, Q4 last year was increasing OCC prices globally because we've seen fairly accelerating box demand not just for you in Americas and Europe but also in Asia and pretty much any box demand region around the world. When we think about 2021, Ken, I don't know. Clearly, you obviously say the one thing. It will never be stable, but could you quantify for us just how much of a headwind at spot prices that could be year-on-year for you and then, I suppose, further for -- kind of opportunities? Just are you out there with box price increases right now in Q1 in Europe? Or can you share with us your confidence being able to recoup that as we go through 2021 with higher box prices at the end of the day?

On the OCC question, Justin, I suppose if you just do a simple mark to market and assume it stays at these levels for the remainder of the year. And clearly, OCC has -- sometimes has a life of its own in terms of where it goes in terms of price, but doing a simple mark to market where we sit today, that could be a headwind in the order of EUR 200 million for the group for full year, that simple. On box prices: Yes, our guys are out there at the moment because that's -- you've got to do it. I mean that's -- and my -- if you like, our confidence and my confidence is built on the fact that we've done this before and only a couple of years ago, to be fair. And we saw the success of it at that time. I think, as Tony talked about just there, it's the acceleration of the trends in the last couple of years and, if you like, our embeddedness with customers, the value offering we give them. And the security of supply we saw last year has only strengthened those customer relationships. And so that's where we build our confidence and our ability to recover all of those cost inputs through the system, into the ultimate box price, as we get through first part of this year and into the back half of the year.

Right. If I could just add, Justin. I mean you know our business model. Every unit that we operate is a profit center. Every manager that runs each unit is incentivized based upon his or her profits and their cash flows and how they operate their business. Last year, the box makers did well because, as has been said, we were able to retain box prices this year to some extent. This year, our box makers, as in from February, will not be doing well at all, and so therefore they have to get the prices up. It's not a question of choice. I mean they will not make money as an individual operating unit operating by themselves. And so that's the strength of Smurfit Kappa. We incentivize people to be managers of their own operating units. And when they're looking at perhaps losses in the month of March in particular box plants because of the -- just the rise of paper of EUR 100-plus a tonne, they need to do something about it, and they need to do it as quickly as they possibly can. Obviously, there are some constraints because we have contracts with customers which work well on the way down and not so well on the way up, and that's fine. We take that because we believe in long-term partnerships. And we should have some degree of stability on price up and down, but they are also the big portion of the market that's free market and we just don't have a choice. So if you're saying am I confident, I don't have a choice but to be confident because otherwise we will be in loss in our box plants, and that's ain't going to happen.

Okay. Just one quick follow-up. I appreciate demand is very unusual patterns at the moment, but I guess, if we think perhaps over the last 10 years or so in Europe and if you look at [FESCO] data, average pan-European box amount has been about [1.6] or something per annum, I think, over the 10-year period. If we think forward over, let's say '21 to '30, and just assume that's a normal decade -- and then clearly, that's the one thing it will not be, but how much of a positive tailwind over the next decade could e-commerce growth be and, hopefully, paper switch as well or sustainability generally? Can we credibly think about higher normalized box volume growth rate for Smurfit Kappa in Europe or Americas going forward over the next decade than the industry where Smurfit Kappa has -- specifically has had in the last decade because of those tailwinds of e-commerce growth and sustainability?

Justin, hold on a second. Let me just rub this crystal ball on my -- say, on the desk here. Listen. What we say, what we know for sure is that e-commerce is going to be a positive. What we know for sure is that sustainability is going to be a positive. We are investing behind that. We wouldn't be putting the amount of capital as quickly as we would be into our business if we didn't see the opportunities that exist for this company. I mean, to be honest with you, Justin: When we go forward -- and we've just literally last week at the Board meeting released the first wave of capital that will be only implemented at the very back end of this year for our business. I'm already seeing our businesses across the world saying it's not enough because we've got more opportunities. And -- but at the same time, we want to do things in a prudent manner and not over-phase ourselves either. So we do see the opportunities, whether it's for new factories in certain locations; or whether it's for building out mega plants; or for specific areas such as following some customer's growth in the Americas or Europe; or specific product areas such as agricultural, out of wood or out of plastic into corrugate. I mean it just -- I mean, honestly, you can just say there are just so many. And the reason why I am very confident about it for us is because, when you look at Smurfit Kappa's applications and the way -- I mean I try and say it, and I know these are words, but when you look at how we're using data to help our customers get to market quicker, to help them personalize, to help them digitally print, these are all really big innovations that only Smurfit Kappa has to the extent we have. Some of our competitors have small bits of it, but they can't do it across 34, 35 countries. They can't do it a network of 1,000 designers. They can't have the library that we have. So all of that is sort of playing to our future growth. How the market is going to go, I think you can say mega trends will definitely add more than in the past, but how much, as I say, I'll have to consult my crystal ball here. I'll send [yours].

I look forward to it.

Our next question comes from Alexander Berglund from Bank of America.

So I guess, a bit of a follow-up on the cost inflation part. I mean usually you can give some guidance also on other components. You mentioned that energy might be a bit of a headwind as well. The first question is just if you could quantify energy, net labor inflation, or -- and if there's anything else that we should think about at this point.

Alex, yes, I suppose on typical headings we would give you -- energy, I think we would see as a headwind of something in the order of, call it, EUR 35 million, as we sit here today, for '21 over '20. Among most of the other categories, certainly for labor, the amount might be a net increase but not a material amount given we generally target a cost take-out program to offset the inflationary aspects of labor. Plus, equally the reorg and restructuring program we put in place at the back end of last year will deliver half those savings into 2021, which will equally help to offset some of those labor increases. OCC, we've kind of -- we've talked about. And across all other categories, where that's kind of pulps and starches and dyes and general logistics and distributions, while we are seeing some pressures around those things, we're not seeing them as material necessarily in the '21 over '20 numbers. So that's sort of broadly how we see the picture as we sit here at the moment.

And then on -- so on that, if I think about that EUR 200 million on OCC that you talked about, if OCC stays at this level; and the EUR 35 million; and then potentially something on labor, et cetera. I mean you've been very clear that you need to push up box prices and that you have a track record of doing it, but just as you think about kind of the timing here, do you think that you'll have the tools in place to -- kind of to offset those current cost headwinds already in '21? Or do we need to be a bit more patient here and think about '22?

No. I think, as I said a few seconds ago, Alex, I mean, our box businesses are profit centers. And the managers are incentivized on the basis of their own profitability. It's the strength of Smurfit Kappa. While we act as an integrated system, we are acting as single profit centers, and so therefore, as quickly as possible, we will be pushing up prices. As I said a few seconds ago, we are contractually obliged, correctly and needing to be with many of our customers, to do this over a 3-month or 6-month period or sometimes even a year period. And that works up and down for us and gives our customers some degree of stability and gives us some degree of stability, but with regard to a lot of the free market, we are actively out there now. And we will see some recovery sooner rather than later, but it is obviously something that we work hard on and is a focus of not just a daily conversation but, I would say, nearly an hourly conversation with our executives. And we are very focused on it.

And just the final one is a bit different question, and it's about sustainability and e-commerce. With the kind of e-commerce trend likely kind of continuing, what issues or what kind of challenge does that put on box collection and recycling of OCC in the medium term? And what are you doing? And what can you do, and other stakeholders, to kind of continue to maintain that good circular system that we have in boxes?

It's an excellent question. I think one of the downsides of products going to people's homes is that there is less collection than there would be at the centers, so obviously that is going to be -- that is an issue for the collection of OCC in many of the markets in which we operate, especially now. So we have set up our own recovered paper system in Germany, which we'll probably roll out a little bit as we go across Europe during the year. I'm happy to say it's -- that's a long conversation about what we're doing, but there's very little that we can do to encourage households to recycle more. Obviously, it's up to the consumer to do that, but it -- inevitably the trends are meaning less fiber is collected at source, these big [PKS] or super stores, when it's delivered home. So that is an issue, and it's part of the reason why there are such tightness in Europe at this moment in time.

Our next question comes from Dave O'Brien from Goodbody.

Just a couple from me, please. Look. Given all the things that you've outlined in the last couple of minutes, Tony, in terms of complexity of packaging; your ability to serve customers through the first surge in pharmaceutical end markets in March, April, May; then e-commerce into December, [like here] you have to go to underpin market share gains over the next 12 to 36 months, but I guess, is there going to be any other benefits in terms of longer contract lengths? Is there a premium pricing associated with the value you're clearly delivering to customers? Is there potential for any of those benefits to come through? Secondly, just in terms of your sustainability targets, which seem very ambitious, I'm just trying to gauge what the cost of all of that reaching those targets is going to be. Like there's EUR 150 million to EUR 200 million outlined in your CapEx plan. How should we think about sort of kind of capital outlays? Will they cover their costs of capital? Are they costs of business? How should we think about that not just in the next 1 to 2 years but much longer term?

And finally, I'm just trying to ask Lars's question again, if I could. You've called out the Better Planet Packaging. What kind of proportion of volumes within the business is the Better Planet Packaging offering now? Is it still very low single digits, or has it gained material traction yet? (inaudible) [in the pipeline].

Look. I can't really expand on Lars -- the question of Lars. I mean we would say it's an impossible question because there's people switching all over the place in every aspect of our business. So we don't measure that yet. I mean it is something that myself and the team here just do talk about is how can we get a better measurement on that, but it is -- I mean it is probably not in double digits, but it's probably in a 5% to 10% range type of number. But I mean again I don't really have a good fix on that.

With regard to margin. I think it's fair to say that our system is delivering very good margins, and you see that the margins in the Americas were 20% in the second half. You see in Europe we're close to 18%. So overall I think our margins -- we've proven over time that, by offering innovation and by offering the kind of service that we do, we do actually attract better margins. And it's interesting. That doesn't mean that we don't give our customers better costs. We do actually, but because we're able to engineer projects -- products differently for them, they get better costs and we get better margins, so it's a kind of win-win situation. And that's where a partnership with customers work so well because together we can actually win through the system and whether it's saving transportation costs or whether it's saving supply chain costs of whatever area or even material reduction. Because sometimes we forget the fact that we continue to go lighter and lighter. We continue to reduce the weight of our boxes. All of this stuff is all a real positive for our customers because it means less costs for them, but at the same time it doesn't necessarily mean less margin for us. So yes is the answer. Partnering with customers does mean higher margins as a win-win for both sets of people. Ken?

David, just thinking about the CapEx in kind of a broader sense. If you think with that plan, we tend to see that as a kind of portfolio of spend. So when we talk about that, if you like, that plan is itself supporting the 17% kind of return on capital employed. It's clear that's, if you like, within that kind of downstream activity bucket. Then those projects will generally deliver over and above the costs of capital, certainly well over above the 17% to 20%. It's clear also that the optimization projects in the lower bucket will deliver those returns quite quickly and probably again better than the average. For the sustainability projects, they may not hit those kind of returns in terms of clearing a 17% ROCE, but they will still deliver decent returns, double digits at least. But also what we tend to find is that we do better over time with those projects in terms of what they will give us, whether it's better energy consumption, which leads to better EBITDA and contribution, but clearly those projects are aimed at doing something else. And that's having a greater impact in terms of the footprint of the business and the footprint of the business on the planet, but typically, just to break it down: As a portfolio of cash flows is how we think about it delivering towards that kind of 17% but, clearly within that bucket 1, bucket 3, if you like, above those targets, sustainability focus. Still strong performer [tends] to over-deliver, depending on the environment, given how they perform.

And sorry, David. Just to -- when we talk about the -- to go back to your earlier question. When we talk about sustainable packaging moving from plastic to corrugated, we'd say at this moment that's in its infancy. It's about 1%, but the actual opportunity is probably up to 10%, I'd say. [This will be theory right now].

Our next question comes from Johannes Grunselius from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Yes. So most of my questions have been answered now, but I can ask you something here on your backward integration perhaps. Could you just remind us about your backward integration on kraftliner and testliner? And I guess, overall on containerboard, you're fully backward integrated. I'm sort of after what kind of impact do you foresee on your OpEx per tonne because of higher containerboard prices. And how do you think this will impact the -- yes, the industry?

Johannes, you're right. We tend to like that kind of balance of integration. Generally we tend to be long on kraftliner, short on tests, so achieve the balance, if you like, 100% integration, that way. It kind of goes back to what Tony talked about earlier. When we talk about paper price increases, while they come through the system, and for a period of time it's kind of one bucket to the other, that doesn't necessarily mean that we don't treat it as an external cost going into the box system to be recovered. So we treat it in the same way. A box system is a profit center. And it doesn't matter who they buy their paper off. It just matters the price they buy their paper at, and that's the market price. So that recovery has to be delivered through the system, but you're right. It is balanced. It is balanced and a 100% integration [is what we try to target].

Okay, good to know, yes. The -- can I also ask if -- do you have any idea of the converters or the corrugated manufacturers? How much of the capacity in Europe would you say is backward integrated? And how much is nonintegrated? Is it possible to give any indication there?

It is possible. I don't have the figure in my head, Johannes, but you can safely assume there's a very, very good percentage of independent paper makers. And there's a very good percentage of independent box makers that will face the same challenges that our integrated system face. So I mean I can't -- it varies by country, but I -- in the air, I'd sort of say 60-40 is 60% is integrated in some way and 40% is nonintegrated, but I mean I could be wrong by some percents on that. But so you can assume that there is plenty of nonintegrated players that will be in the corrugated box business that will need to get paper price increases up very sharply. And even if they were even -- I think most people that -- have slowly moved to our model. That means that you have to have your own profit centers because, at the end of the day, you've got 2 streams of businesses that are looking for capital. And if you only make 1 profit, then you are going to fail. So you have to have -- you just have to take the benefit of integration but not necessarily treat it as 1 profit center because obviously 2 sets of needs of capital and only 1 return will be a very bad result.

Our next question comes from Cole Hatherson (sic) [Cole Hathorn] from Jefferies.

Just a follow-up on the containerboards and kraftliner markets. Could you give a little bit of color what the U.S. producers' lower exports to Europe are having on the European market at the moment? And then on the testliner side, what are you seeing kind of wider industry trends relating to exports to China? And then a segment of your business that I suppose you haven't mentioned as much as in the past was the bag-in-box, and I see you bringing it up again today. And I still remember Ken talking about the Tide bag-in-box, which was seeing good growth this year. Could you give me a little bit more color on to the scale of that bag-in-box business for Smurfit Kappa and the outlook in that segment?

Okay. With regard to the 2 paper questions you asked there, Cole, my -- U.S. exports -- I mean basically you just have to think about paper as being extremely short at the moment. I mean you're hearing everywhere about shortages of containers. You're hearing shortage -- hearing about shortages of chips and for the microchips, semiconductors. There is a shortage of paper in the world on brown papers, whether it's kraftliners or recycled, at this moment. It's very, very hard to get. And then we're looking for 160 tonnes, which is nothing, [for trucks] in Texas and we do not -- we're not able to find it anywhere across our network. So that's -- that gives you the kind of indication. I mean we will find it, but it gives you kind of an indication of how tight the paper market is right now. And so I wouldn't even characterize an issue between kraftliner, exports to Europe or not. They're just drying up a little bit, so -- and with regard to recycled, I mean, I don't have the figures to hand about exports to China, but I can tell you that the export price to China, when you add it to the container price, which you'll have seen (inaudible) talking about much higher prices for containers, is an extremely expensive product, much more so than the price in Europe right now. So containerboard is just really tight, and we expect that to continue at least for the foreseeable future, that we can -- unless something negative happens in the world's growth outlook, then there's no reason why that would change in the short term.

With regard to bag-in-box. Bag-in-box has been a very good business for us. It -- we are highlighting it because it grew so strongly. And we see opportunities to continue to grow very strongly, as some of the areas of sustainability actually play very well to bag-in-box. Obviously there's a box involved, but there's also less plastic involved than the current solutions, whether they're in [gippy cans] or whatever. And we see, whether it's paint in bag-in-box or whether it's water in bag-in-box or whether it's wine or whether it's oil, there is massive opportunity for growth in this area. And we're the #2 producer in the world, by far the #1 in Europe, with the most state-of-the-art facilities. And we just want our investors to know that we have this beautiful business within our business that continues to grow very strongly.

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Mikael Doepel from UBS.

Just a couple of questions here, a bit different ones. If we start with the sustainability theme: Now that's obviously front and center for you, but in terms of the plastics, the paper substitution, potential overall, what is your take on that? I mean I would assume you have done quite extensive research on the topic ahead of the decision to make quite big investments in this theme, in a way, so how big is the overall potential in your view, for example, in Europe? I mean, are we talking EUR 1 billion or EUR 5 billion or EUR 10 billion? And how much do you think corrugated could as a material gain from that? That would be my first question. And then secondly, on your overall end use split now, I mean, given the strength in the e-commerce that we saw last year, I would assume that e-commerce share of your end use has grown from the, let's call it, about 10%, I think, you mentioned for 2019, this year -- or actually last year then. So how does the overall end use split look like today?

Mikael, on your first question. I think it's a day for [ever increasing the size of] crystal balls. It's kind of hard to tell because the reality is, when we think about corrugated packaging or folding carton replacing single-use plastic, we tend to think about that as the kind of tertiary pack piece. While there's a small footprint to corrugated, clearly, the more you apply it, and the growth, the bigger it gets, the more replacements you can do. So it's very simple replacements. I think where you get the big impact in terms of plastic replacement is where you can move into either the secondary pack or the primary pack for corrugated to replace plastic. So clearly plastic still has a place in our lives and still does a job for certain things, but I think we have a philosophy around sustainability. It's where corrugated can replace that, we will certainly do that. And what we're finding is our customers ever more, whether it's through bag-in-box or through corrugated or indeed through folding carton where we have that in our operations, are more coming to us looking for that sustainable alternatives that are current -- to their current set. As Tony talked about earlier and we spoke about before, it just takes some time for those projects to change because you are talking about changing supply chains and packing lines. And producers need to ensure that they can get the same speed and [performance times] that they are currently getting, but now that those products like TopClip are in production, people can go and see them in action. That gives them a greater comfort about, if you like, the replacement and the substitution for their current packaging. So while we haven't done any specific studies on the size of the market because it tends to vary depending on how far you go down -- because there are certain things we can't replace. And that's some of those things are big parts of single-use plastics, where that's kind of balloons and footballs and everything else, but certainly our philosophy is, where we can, we certainly will. And the second question...

We were able to replace people, though, in the Super Bowl, [where it was] cardboards people were instead of the crowd. So...

Indeed. That is -- yes. The ultimate replacement of corrugated is replacing people with corrugated. And Mikael, your second question then was on...

On e-commerce.

On e-commerce. E-commerce, it's a bit like the sustainability question, which is it's kind of ubiquitous and everywhere. So we tend to think about e-commerce in terms of pure e-tailers, and certainly that's seen a lot of growth. And Tony talked about the growth in certainly Mexico 150%, in Brazil -- in Russia 80% and in Brazil similar numbers. So certainly, where those markets have been in their infancy, we've seen really strong growth across 2020, but clearly we also have customers that have gone online or are already online and we've seen growth within that portfolio. So I think it's fair to say it has seen a shift, probably a larger shift in 2020 than the year before. And some of that will be retained as we move forward and some of those bricks-and-mortar retailers come back to the street and people retain those purchases online, but certainly through the pure e-commerce play, we've seen through the U.K. as well really strong growth across the year.

So one of the trends which is going to emerge is going to be the whole personalization aspect of things, and obviously that lends itself very nicely to corrugated and printing and digital. And as people, as our customers, big or small, want to personalize things, we are developing and have developed and are continuing to develop digital print opportunities for customers to really go directly to their customer. And that means to go directly to their door with our corrugated packaging personalized or as a marketing medium. So we have a lot of space on our boxes that can be used for marketing. So a lot of things are ahead of us that are just really we're just scratching the surface on, and we saw a little bit of that. We showed the thing about the advent calendar, but there's -- e-commerce really does allow you to really go targeted. And my customers, as they get more and more sophisticated on doing that, it will require them to deliver directly and will require personalization. And that's -- whether it's for expensive drinks or for cheap chocolates, it doesn't really matter. And I think you're going to see a huge growth in that over the years ahead as things develop.

Okay. And just finally, a follow-up on the e-commerce. So if you think about the overall end use split where you sit today, how much of that is e-commerce? How much is something else? So just wondering about the overall end use split there.

It's really hard to tell because, if you take FMCG which is 75%-plus of our business, that probably contains a large element of e-commerce in there, but if we were putting a number on what [a small margin of] either sides, Mikael, I think you'd probably say it's early teens at the moment in terms of volumes.

Our next question comes from Kevin Fogarty from Numis Securities.

Just two, if I could do. One is a -- I guess, if we think about the guidance you gave us in November, the key areas of surprises for you in terms of demand strength, clearly e-commerce seems to be sort of one of those areas, but I just wondered. Was it a more industrial market sort of exposure and customers there where they've been kind of surprising on the upside? And if that sort of carried through to this current year. And just secondly, in terms of working capital movement, it seems to be much stronger inflow, possibly anticipated. I just wondered if there's any element of that sort of exceptional in 2020 that otherwise -- in the early part of this year.

Well, Kevin, to be honest with you, whenever I listen to a song, I can never hear a single word in it. And I couldn't actually hear what you said, so I'm not...

I think I got both of them, Kevin. I'll give it a shot. On your first question, which I think was the positive surprise over the fourth quarter in terms of where we gave guidance and how that might have broken down between e-commerce and maybe some industrials, I think certainly e-commerce was a part of that and coming into Christmas, but certainly that trend has continued into '21. I think equally, industrials, and Tony talked a bit about it earlier, I mean, that kind of move where people are not going on vacation and focusing on home improvements and things of that certainly feeds straight into the industrial market. And certainly we would have seen that come back in the latter part of the year, having been slightly slowed down in the earlier part of lockdown. So I think there was a generally better picture for demand in the latter part of the fourth quarter than we might have expected. And that's demand picture, as we've said, has continued in 2021.

On the working capital question. It's a function of a few things. It's a function of we talked about the tight paper market, so inventories being tight; and also paper pricing going up, which has a positive impact on our net working capital because we buy testliner on the outside; equally, OCC trending back up. And that's obviously creditor also, so a positive impact on working capital. And then, if you like, the unlock of the debtor side of the house from the fall in the box price year-on-year. So you could logically expect, as we move through 2021, that we would see an investment in working capital as we begin to [feed] those box pricing back through the working capital but nothing necessarily exceptional in the performance, very strong performance by our teams given the external environment. But you should reasonably expect it. Then we go back to that kind of target range we have of about 7% to 8% of working capital. Certainly, as box prices come through, we will see reinvestments on the debtor side.

Thank you. I will now hand back to the speakers for any [upper] remarks.

Yes. Well, thank you all for being with us today. We really appreciate all the questions and the attendance of so many people on the call.

Clearly, last year was an excellent year for Smurfit Kappa given the environment in which we operated. The trends out of the fourth quarter have continued, and we feel confident and very confident about the future of this business. And we thank you for your support to the company and all the employees in it. I just hope that you all stay safe and look after yourselves during this difficult time. And let's hope that -- at some point in the near future that we can all meet up again and do this in person.

So thanks very much. Good luck, and stay safe.

Thank you. This now concludes our conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.