Constellation Brands Inc (STZ) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Constellation Brands Q4 fiscal year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Joseph Suarez, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加星座品牌 2025 財年第四季收益電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興將電話轉給主持人、投資者關係副總裁約瑟夫·蘇亞雷斯 (Joseph Suarez)。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, all, and welcome to Constellation Brands Q4 and full year fiscal 25 conference call. I'm here this morning with Bill Newlands, our CEO; and Garth Hankinson, our CFO. We trust that you had the opportunity to review the news release, CEO and CFO commentary and accompanying slides made available yesterday evening in the Investors section of our company's website, www.cbrands.com.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安，歡迎參加星座品牌第四季和 25 財年全年電話會議。今天早上我和我們的執行長比爾紐蘭茲 (Bill Newlands) 在一起；以及我們的財務長 Garth Hankinson。我們相信您有機會閱讀昨天晚上在我們公司網站 www.cbrands.com 的投資者部分發布的新聞稿、首席執行官和首席財務官的評論以及隨附的幻燈片。

As we have received a couple of questions regarding certain figures contained in our slides, please note that we expect our beer net sales growth rate for fiscal 26 to be between 0% to 3% and for fiscal 27 and 28 to be 2% to 4%. And our operating income growth rate for fiscal 26 is expected to be between 0% to 2%, and for fiscal 27 to 28, we expect operating margins to be approximately 39% to 40%.

由於我們收到了一些有關幻燈片中某些數字的問題，請注意，我們預計 26 財年的啤酒淨銷售額增長率將在 0% 至 3% 之間，27 和 28 財年的啤酒淨銷售額增長率將在 2% 至 4% 之間。我們預計 26 財年的營業收入成長率將在 0% 至 2% 之間，而 27 至 28 財年的營業利潤率預計將達到約 39% 至 40%。

On that note, as a reminder, reconciliations between the most directly comparable GAAP measures and non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are included in the news release and website, and we encourage you to also refer to the news release and Constellation's SEC filings for risk factors that may impact forward-looking statements made on this call.

在此提醒一下，本次電話會議上討論的最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的對帳已包含在新聞稿和網站中，我們鼓勵您也參考新聞稿和 Constellation 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能影響本次電話會議上前瞻性陳述的風險因素。

Before turning the call over to Bill and Garth, please keep in mind that as usual, answers provided today will be referencing comparable results unless otherwise specified and that any references to expectations for fiscal 26 to fiscal 28 reflect the anticipated impact of the tariffs announced by the US government on April 2 and the Canadian government on March 4 of this year, inclusive of the delay in the effectiveness of certain tariffs announced by the US government yesterday, which will particularly impact the wine spirits business.

在將電話轉給 Bill 和 Garth 之前，請記住，與往常一樣，今天提供的答案將參考可比較結果，除非另有說明，並且對 26 財年至 28 財年的預期的任何提及都反映了美國政府於今年 4 月 2 日和加拿大政府於 3 月 4 日宣布的關稅的預期影響，包括美國政府政府宣布昨天的某些關稅有效的預期影響，包括美國政府宣布昨天的某些關稅的預期影響，包括美國政府宣布昨天的某些關稅的預期影響，包括美國政府新聞的預期

Lastly, in line with prior quarters, I would ask that you limit yourself to one question per person, which will help us to end our call on time. Thanks in advance. And now here is Bill.

最後，與前幾季一樣，我要求您將每個人的問題限制為一個，這將有助於我們準時結束通話。提前致謝。現在比爾就在這裡。

Thanks, Joe, and welcome, everyone, to our Q4 and full year fiscal 25 call. As usual, I will outline a few overarching highlights, but we will then move immediately to Q&A as our broader commentary was provided to you yesterday. So let's get going. In a tough socioeconomic environment, we are taking decisive actions designed to continue to support our industry-leading beer business, reset our cost base and redefine our portfolio.

謝謝喬，歡迎大家參加我們的第四季和 25 財年全年電話會議。像往常一樣，我將概述一些總體亮點，但隨後我們將立即進入問答環節，因為我們昨天已經向您提供了更廣泛的評論。那麼我們就開始吧。在嚴峻的社會經濟環境下，我們正在採取果斷行動，旨在繼續支持我們行業領先的啤酒業務，重置我們的成本基礎並重新定義我們的產品組合。

More specifically, first, in fiscal 25, despite a softer consumer demand backdrop, largely driven by what we believe to be nonstructural socioeconomic factors, we continue to deliver enterprise net sales growth, realized substantial comparable operating margin improvement and achieved double-digit comparable EPS growth.

更具體地說，首先，在 25 財年，儘管消費者需求背景疲軟，這主要受到我們認為的非結構性社會經濟因素的推動，但我們繼續實現企業淨銷售額增長，實現可比營業利潤率大幅提升，並實現兩位數可比每股收益增長。

Second, looking ahead, while we expect these nonstructural socioeconomic factors affecting consumer demand to gradually stabilize and subside, we remain focused on driving distribution gains on launching disciplined innovation and on deploying incremental marketing investments to support the growth of our beer business, all while continuing to deliver best-in-class operating margins.

其次，展望未來，雖然我們預計這些影響消費者需求的非結構性社會經濟因素將逐漸穩定和消退，但我們仍將專注於推動分銷收益，推出規範的創新，並部署增量營銷投資，以支持我們啤酒業務的增長，同時繼續提供一流的營業利潤率。

Third, in addition, we expect significant improvements in the performance of our Wine & Spirits business beyond fiscal 26, following the anticipated closing of the 2025 wine divestitures transaction that is primarily centered around the sale of the remaining mainstream wine brands in that portfolio as well as the implementation of associated restructuring actions expected to yield over $200 million in net annualized cost savings across the enterprise by fiscal 28.

第三，此外，我們預計，在預計完成 2025 年葡萄酒資產剝離交易之後，我們的葡萄酒和烈酒業務的業績將在 26 財年之後顯著改善，該交易主要圍繞出售該投資組合中剩餘的主流葡萄酒品牌以及實施相關重組行動，預計到 28 財年將為整個企業帶來超過 2 億美元的淨年度成本節約。

Fourth, against that backdrop, we are targeting to deliver approximately $9 billion in operating cash flow from fiscal 26 to 28 and approximately $6 billion in free cash flow as we continue to invest primarily in the modular development of our third brewery in Veracruz and modular additions at our existing facilities in Mexico.

第四，在此背景下，我們的目標是在 26 至 28 財年實現約 90 億美元的營運現金流和約 60 億美元的自由現金流，因為我們將繼續主要投資於位於韋拉克魯斯的第三家啤酒廠的模組化開發以及位於墨西哥的現有工廠的模組化擴建。

And fifth, in line with this strong cash flow generation and having achieved our comparable net leverage ratio target in fiscal 25, we remain committed to a disciplined and balanced capital deployment framework, including our 30% dividend payout ratio and executing share repurchases against our new three-year $4 billion authorization. And with that, Garth and I will be happy to take your questions.

第五，在強勁的現金流產生和實現 25 財年可比淨槓桿率目標的同時，我們仍然致力於建立嚴謹、均衡的資本配置框架，包括 30% 的股息支付率以及根據新的三年 40 億美元授權執行股票回購。有了這些，加思和我很樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

I wanted to know if you could comment more specifically on tariffs. Is the beer business currently USMCA certified so we can get some visibility on what is baked in terms of tariffs with regard to Mexico? And also what else is baked in terms of aluminum cans and so on.

我想知道您是否可以就關稅問題發表更具體地評論。啤酒業務目前是否已獲得 USMCA 認證，以便我們了解與墨西哥相關的關稅情況？還有什麼可以烘烤的鋁罐等等。

So more visibility there would be really helpful. And then I was also just curious on the longer-term forecast around beer and the notion of socioeconomic nonstructural dynamics. But how are you thinking about beer industry growth over this projection timeline?

因此，提高知名度確實會很有幫助。然後，我也對啤酒的長期預測以及社會經濟非結構動態的概念感到好奇。但是您如何看待啤酒產業在此預測時間範圍內的成長？

Sure. Why don't I start with the first part of the question. We have been USMCA compliant since it was implemented several years ago and remain USMCA compliant today.

當然。我為什麼不從問題的第一部分開始呢？自從幾年前 USMCA 實施以來，我們一直遵守該協議，並且今天仍然遵守該協議。

In addition to that, Lauren, the guidance that we provided does include the impact for all tariffs announced by the US government on April 2, and by the Canadian government on March 4. For our beer business, this includes the impact on our aluminum cans. And for our wine business, this includes the impact for our brands coming out of New Zealand and Italy into the US and for our brands from the US into Canada.

除此之外，勞倫，我們提供的指導確實包括美國政府於 4 月 2 日和加拿大政府於 3 月 4 日宣布的所有關稅的影響。對於我們的啤酒業務來說，這包括對我們的鋁罐的影響。對於我們的葡萄酒業務來說，這包括我們的品牌從紐西蘭和義大利進入美國以及我們的品牌從美國進入加拿大的影響。

Relative to the longer-range perspective on beer, there's been obviously a lot of what we see as near-term headwinds. But we think that those over time, particularly as the Hispanic consumer who's been particularly challenged gets back to more sort of normal operating procedure.

相對於啤酒產業的長期前景，我們顯然看到許多短期阻力。但我們認為，隨著時間的推移，特別是受到特別挑戰的西班牙裔消費者將恢復到更正常的營運程序。

Nik Modi, RBC Capital Markets.

尼克莫迪 (Nik Modi)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets)。

Bill, maybe if I could just kind of piggyback off Lauren's question on the long-term beer outlook. I get the fact that things are really kind of choppy right now, but the cut in the guide just kind of over the next couple of years seemed a bit extreme relative to what you guys have been doing even with the slowing down that we've been seeing that I think we can all agree some of it is very temporary.

比爾，也許我可以藉用勞倫關於啤酒長期前景的問題。我知道現在的情況確實有點不穩定，但未來幾年指南的削減相對於你們一直在做的事情來說似乎有點極端，儘管我們看到速度有所放緩，但我認為我們都同意其中一些只是暫時的。

So when I speak to the trade, it's pretty clear nothing has really changed on an underlying basis with the brands, the momentum, kind of how retailers are looking to space your portfolio in a bigger sense, greater manner.

因此，當我與業界交談時，很明顯，品牌、勢頭以及零售商如何以更大、更大的方式尋求投資組合的根本基礎並沒有發生真正的改變。

So just wanted to kind of get your philosophy on the range of being down this up 2% to 4%, which is versus the 7% to 9% and kind of how you're thinking about that? I mean, are you just kind of assuming things just stay the way they are? And if there's upside, great. So any context on that would be really, really helpful.

所以，我只是想了解一下您對下降 2% 到 4% 的範圍的看法，與 7% 到 9% 相比，您是如何看待這個問題的？我的意思是，您是否只是假設事情會維持現狀？如果有好處，那就太好了。因此，任何有關這方面的情況都會非常非常有幫助。

Sure. Well, let's start with the most important thing, Nik, and today is Nik's birthday. So happy birthday, Nik. Now getting on to the main point. The most important thing as we look at it relative to the medium term is our brand health.

當然。好吧，讓我們從最重要的事情開始吧，尼克，今天是尼克的生日。祝你生日快樂，尼克。現在開始討論重點。從中期來看，最重要的是我們的品牌健康。

And fortunately, all of our brand health metrics remain extremely strong. We're very focused on what we can control, and that's distribution. It's focused innovation. It's making sure that our execution is top notch. You noted we gained over 10% in share of space in the resets that occurred last year. So that remains a positive factor. It's very difficult to know exactly how long some of these socioeconomic issues are going to continue.

幸運的是，我們所有的品牌健康指標仍然非常強勁。我們非常關注我們能夠控制的事情，那就是分銷。這是專注的創新。它確保我們的執行是一流的。您注意到，在去年發生的重置中，我們的空間份額增加了 10% 以上。所以這仍然是一個積極因素。很難確切知道這些社會經濟問題將持續多久。

Certainly, we know that the Hispanic consumer is particularly concerned about a number of issues. And we would certainly expect some improvement as those consumers become more comfortable and less concerned about the many issues that follow them.

當然，我們知道西班牙裔消費者特別關心一些問題。隨著消費者變得更加安心，不再擔心隨之而來的許多問題，我們當然期待情況會有所改善。

We don't have an exact answer to when that is going to moderate. And I think it's important to note that the guidance that we have provided reflects the fact that there are a lot of unknowns today, including things like tariffs, but also the impact that we're seeing with the Hispanic consumer. Until we get a more definitive answer to some of those questions, it's a tough answer to give.

我們還沒有確切答案知道什麼時候這種情況才會緩和。我認為值得注意的是，我們提供的指導反映了當今存在許多未知因素的事實，包括關稅等因素，以及我們看到的西班牙裔消費者的影響。在我們得到這些問題的更明確的答案之前，這是一個很難給出的答案。

Fortunately, that consumer, the Hispanic consumer continues to show extraordinarily loyalty to our brands. And over the long term, that will moderate and continue to allow us to gain share as we have for the last several years.

幸運的是，西班牙裔消費者繼續對我們的品牌表現出異常的忠誠度。從長遠來看，這種趨勢將會緩和，並讓我們繼續獲得市場份額，就像過去幾年一樣。

And Nik, let me just add a couple of the actual brand health sets that Bill referenced. We've actually seen some pretty significant increases in aided awareness and consideration from Modelo, Corona and Pacifico, which is in line with what we would expect from the media investment that we put in place this last year.

尼克，請容許我補充比爾提到的幾個實際的品牌健康集。實際上，我們看到 Modelo、Corona 和 Pacifico 的輔助知名度和考慮度有了相當顯著的成長，這與我們對去年實施的媒體投資的預期一致。

All brands are holding steady on measures of popularity across all adults, Hispanic and Gen Z. Pacifico was up statistically significantly in California, and all our brands are holding steady on the other metrics that we track, including is this a brand I love? Is it a brand everyone likes? Is it a good value? Is it a brand with heritage and net favorability.

所有品牌在所有成年人、西班牙裔和 Z 世代中的受歡迎程度都保持穩定。 Pacifico 在加州的統計數字顯著上升，我們所有的品牌在我們追蹤的其他指標上都保持穩定，包括這是我喜歡的品牌嗎？這是一個大家都喜歡的品牌嗎？它有價值嗎？是不是一個有底蘊、有淨好感度的品牌。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I just wanted to ask a quick follow-up on -- in the context of your cut to your medium-term algo, what are you assuming for the beer category growth or I guess, declines over the next few years? And then I wanted to ask about margins, beer margins.

我只是想快速問一下——在您削減中期演算法的背景下，您對未來幾年啤酒類別的成長或下降有何假設？然後想問一下利潤，啤酒利潤。

Could you maybe walk through the different puts and takes that are going to allow you to deliver your best-in-class beer margins of 39% to 40% over the next few years despite, I guess, a considerable expected slowdown in volume and some tariff risk. I mean you mentioned some cost cutting. So could you give us some more color on that and possibly quantify?

您能否介紹不同的策略，儘管我猜預計銷量會大幅放緩，並且存在一些關稅風險，但這些策略將使您在未來幾年內實現 39% 至 40% 的最佳啤酒利潤率。我的意思是你提到了一些削減成本的事情。那麼，您能否提供我們更多細節並進行量化呢？

I think slide 18 is going to help you on some of those broad answers. But our view is over the course of the medium term, the beer industry overall will likely go back to what it has done over the last several years, which is roughly flat to down 2%, somewhere in that range.

我認為第 18 張投影片將幫助您解答一些廣泛的疑問。但我們認為，從中期來看，啤酒產業整體可能會回到過去幾年的水平，大致持平或下降 2% 左右。

And as we've said on prior calls, we've seen a significant delta between whatever the beer industry is and our performance against it, where we have gained significant share. We expect that overall approach is going to continue and that we'll get back to a more normal, I'll call it, normal trajectory into the medium term. As I spoke on a couple of the prior questions, how quickly that comes around will largely depend on what consumer sentiment is as we move forward.

正如我們在之前的電話會議上所說的那樣，我們發現啤酒行業的狀況與我們的表現之間存在顯著的差距，而我們在這一行業中獲得了相當大的份額。我們預計整體方法將會繼續，並且我們將恢復到更正常的狀態，我稱之為中期正常軌跡。正如我之前回答的幾個問題一樣，這個目標實現的速度很大程度取決於未來消費者的情緒。

Yes. And then, Bonnie, on margins, I apologize, it's probably a bit of a boring story because I think we've said it a few times before, nothing has really changed. First of all, we're going to manage our footprint in the modular fashion that we've referenced previously. So we're going to limit the impact of depreciation and overhead absorption issues. In addition to that, we'll have incremental volume growth. We'll maintain our 1% to 2% pricing algorithm. And certainly, we'll continue on with our cost savings initiatives.

是的。然後，邦妮，關於邊緣，我很抱歉，這可能是一個有點無聊的故事，因為我認為我們之前已經說過幾次了，什麼都沒有真正改變。首先，我們將按照先前提到的模組化方式來管理我們的足跡。因此，我們將限制折舊和間接費用吸收問題的影響。除此之外，我們的銷量還會逐步成長。我們將維持 1% 到 2% 的定價演算法。當然，我們將繼續推行成本節約措施。

Obviously, those tailwinds will be offset on a year-to-year basis by inflation and tariffs. But net-net, when we put all that together, we think we can continue to deliver best-in-class margins at 39% to 40%.

顯然，這些順風因素將會逐年因通貨膨脹和關稅而抵消。但當我們把所有這些因素綜合起來時，我們認為我們可以繼續實現 39% 至 40% 的最佳利潤率。

Rob Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

Rob Ottenstein，Evercore ISI。

I just want to make sure I get this as crystal clear as possible. I'm wondering if you can just kind of go through again how you're thinking about free cash flow deployment. And given the fact that you've shrunk the Wine & Spirits business or repositioned it. And given the fact that at least over the next couple of years, you expect less growth from the beer side of the business, you're reducing CapEx. Are you today and kind of going forward, more open to larger acquisitions?

我只是想確保我盡可能清楚地了解這一點。我想知道您是否可以再次闡述您對自由現金流部署的看法。鑑於您已經縮減了葡萄酒和烈酒業務或對其進行了重新定位。並且考慮到至少在未來幾年內，您預計啤酒業務的成長會減少，因此您會減少資本支出。您現在以及將來是否會對更大規模的收購持更開放的態度？

Are you spending more time on acquisitions given the increased cash flow? So I'd love to get your thoughts on that. I know you've re-upped the authorization on the share buyback, is -- tied to that, is that a strong commitment that you will buy back? I think it was $4 billion worth of stock over the next three years. Just trying to get a sense of the priorities there and what is kind of guidance versus actual commitments along those lines?

鑑於現金流的增加，您是否會花費更多時間進行收購？所以我很想聽聽你對此的看法。我知道您已經重新提高了股票回購的授權，與此相關，這是您將回購的堅定承諾嗎？我認為未來三年的股票價值將達到 40 億美元。只是想了解那裡的優先事項以及沿著這些方向的指導與實際承諾是什麼樣的？

Well, thanks for the question, Robert. And on the one hand, this will be another boring answer because I think it's a lot of consistency with what we've said in the past. But actually, I think it's pretty exciting what we're going to be doing here. I mean, as we outlined through FY28, we're going to generate $9 billion of operating cash flow and $6 billion of free cash flow. Our capital allocation priorities don't change.

好吧，謝謝你的提問，羅伯特。一方面，這將是另一個無聊的答案，因為我認為這與我們過去所說的內容有許多一致性。但實際上，我認為我們在這裡要做的事情非常令人興奮。我的意思是，正如我們在 28 財年所概述的那樣，我們將產生 90 億美元的營運現金流和 60 億美元的自由現金流。我們的資本配置重點不會改變。

We're committed to being -- we're committed to achieving three times leverage. We're there now. We're actually a little bit below there now. We're committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends, and we'll maintain our approximately 30% dividend payout as we go forward.

我們致力於－我們致力於實現三倍槓桿。我們現在到了。事實上，我們現在距離那裡還有一點距離。我們致力於透過股利向股東返還資本，未來將維持約 30% 的股利支付率。

And then you referenced the new authorization for $4 billion in share repurchases that we received from our Board yesterday. This is actually, I think, very exciting. I mean not only is the $4 billion share repurchase authorization reflective of our discipline around capital allocation and share repurchases more specifically, but it's also reflective of the fact that we think that we're undervalued.

然後您提到了我們昨天從董事會收到的 40 億美元股票回購的新授權。我認為這確實非常令人興奮。我的意思是，40 億美元的股票回購授權不僅反映了我們在資本配置和股票回購方面的紀律，也反映了我們認為我們被低估的事實。

Our share price is undervalued, remains undervalued. And we're going to execute on that share authorization as we have this past fiscal year, where we'll be disciplined on a quarter-to-quarter basis, but we will also have the ability to be opportunistic as we see dislocations in our share price. And then as we round out capital allocation, we're going to continue to invest in our beer business, as we outlined in the materials yesterday, $2 billion over the next few years. And M&A remains the last of our priorities, mainly around smaller plug-in opportunities.

我們的股價被低估，並且仍然被低估。我們將按照上個財年的方式執行股票授權，我們將按季度進行紀律處分，但當我們發現股價出現錯位時，我們也會有能力抓住機會。然後，隨著我們完成資本配置，我們將繼續投資我們的啤酒業務，正如我們昨天在材料中概述的那樣，未來幾年將投資 20 億美元。併購仍然是我們的最後一個優先事項，主要圍繞著較小的插件機會。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

Garth, can you just talk about the main drivers and considerations for gross margins going into fiscal 26? I fully appreciate that you had a lot of detail in the slides, but I'm really trying to parse out the impact of tariffs on this model, whether that's just the aluminum cans relative to everything else.

加思，您能談談 26 財年毛利率的主要驅動因素和考慮因素嗎？我非常欣賞您在幻燈片中提供如此詳細的信息，但我真正想分析的是關稅對這種模式的影響，無論這是否僅僅是鋁罐相對於其他所有東西的影響。

You also perhaps have quite a notable currency tailwind in fiscal 26 that may not help you in go-forward years. And so I'm really just trying to understand the puts and takes, specifically the impact of tariffs relative to everything else on the model in fiscal 26 and whether there are some nuances like currency that won't repeat so that we can have a better idea of how to layer this in going into fiscal 27 and fiscal 28?

您可能還會在 26 財年遇到相當明顯的貨幣順風，但這可能不會對您在未來幾年有所幫助。因此，我實際上只是想了解其中的利弊，特別是關稅相對於 26 財年模型中其他所有因素的影響，以及是否存在一些不會重複的細微差別（例如貨幣），以便我們能夠更好地了解如何在 27 財年和 28 財年中分層處理這些因素？

Yes. So look, let me do my best there, Chris. And if we need to follow up, we can follow up. But as the guidance that we provided yesterday, as we said, includes the impact of tariffs for our beer business. That is the impact on aluminum cans. As it relates to currency, as you know, we've talked about this multiple times that we have a multiyear layered approach to how we manage our currency.

是的。所以，聽著，讓我盡我所能，克里斯。如果我們需要跟進，我們可以跟進。但正如我們所說，我們昨天提供的指導包括關稅對我們啤酒業務的影響。這就是對鋁罐的影響。至於貨幣，正如你所知，我們已經多次討論過這個問題，我們對如何管理貨幣採取了一種多年的分層方法。

As we entered in FY26, we're above 70% hedged, and we've seen some actually dislocations in the US peso rate here. I shouldn't say some dislocations, but some weakness, and we've taken opportunities to layer in some incremental hedges both for this year and future years. So as always, we look to sort of -- we look to manage that on a year-to-year basis so that the impact isn't that material from a year-to-year perspective. We try to smooth that as best we can.

進入 26 財年，我們的對沖率已超過 70%，我們發現這裡的美元比索匯率實際上出現了一些混亂。我不應該說存在一些混亂，而是存在一些弱點，我們已經抓住機會，為今年和未來幾年進行了一些增量對沖。因此，像往常一樣，我們希望——我們希望逐年進行管理，以便從逐年的角度來看影響不會那麼大。我們盡力緩解這種情況。

Nadine Sarwat, Bernstein.

納丁·薩瓦特，伯恩斯坦。

I appreciate all the incremental color that was provided in the prepared remarks and the presentation. Two questions for me. You called out a tough socioeconomic environment in your prepared remarks. Can you explain exactly what you're assuming in terms of that socioeconomic environment for the next three years? Are you assuming the current situation remains status quo? Or are you baking in some improvement in the back of that?

我感謝準備好的演講和演講所提供的所有補充色彩。我有兩個問題。您在準備好的發言中指出了嚴峻的社會經濟環境。您能否具體解釋一下您對未來三年的社會經濟環境的假設？您是否認為當前狀況將維持現狀？或者您正在為此做出一些改進？

And then secondly, on the weak depletion numbers and especially Modelo, I appreciate the commentary that you provided. Could you pull apart the factors on to what's driving that? Maybe what has changed in a little more detail? I don't know if a rank order of magnitude or trying to quantify these in any way possible. And maybe you have any incremental consumer insight on consumer type, pack type, channel? Any incremental color would be helpful.

其次，關於疲軟的消耗數字，尤其是 Modelo 的數據，我很感謝您提供的評論。能否分析一下造成這現象的因素？也許更詳細地說一下發生了什麼變化？我不知道是否有數量級或試圖以任何可能的方式量化這些。也許您對消費者類型、包裝類型、管道有任何增量的消費者洞察？任何增量顏色都會有幫助。

Sure. So let's talk first about the Hispanic consumer because I think this is an important element. We -- as you would expect, we do a fair amount of research around this consumer given that they represent roughly 50% of our overall beer business. And the fact is a lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now, 2/3 of them are concerned about higher prices on things like food, gas, and other essentials. Over half are concerned relative to immigration issues and how those impact.

當然。因此，我們先來談談西班牙裔消費者，因為我認為這是一個重要因素。正如您所期望的，我們針對這些消費者進行了大量研究，因為他們占我們整體啤酒業務的約 50%。事實上，許多西班牙裔消費者現在都很擔心，其中三分之二的人擔心食品、汽油和其他必需品的價格上漲。超過一半的人擔心移民問題及其影響。

A number of them are concerned about job losses in industries that have a high Latino employment base. And what does that do? That has tended to mean that the consumer has pulled back on spending on a number of categories.

他們中的許多人擔心拉丁裔就業基礎較強的行業會出現失業現象。那有什麼作用呢？這往往意味著消費者減少了在多個類別上的支出。

The single biggest one interestingly is restaurants, but a lot of other consumer goods, clothing, home choice things to do, travel. Beer is quite a way down the list, but it's certainly on the list because things like social gatherings, an area where the Hispanic consumer often consumes beer are declining today as part of these overarching concerns that they have.

有趣的是，最大的一個是餐館，但還有很多其他消費品，服裝，家居選擇活動，旅遊。啤酒在名單上的位置很靠後，但它肯定在名單上，因為社交聚會等場合（西班牙裔消費者經常消費啤酒的場合）如今正在減少，這是他們所擔心的首要問題之一。

Therefore, all of that has had impact on our business. As you know, Modelo is over 50% Hispanic in terms of its demographic base. So this decline in efforts to go to restaurants, to have social gatherings, things that are very much beer occasions have softened in the more recent term. And it's going to be key to watch as to how that impact continues or doesn't continue as we go forward.

因此，所有這些都對我們的業務產生了影響。如您所知，就人口基礎而言，莫德洛的西班牙裔人口比例超過 50%。因此，最近一段時間，人們去餐廳吃飯、參加社交聚會以及喝啤酒的場合越來越少。而關鍵在於觀察這種影響在未來會如何持續或停止。

Net-net, it's nonstructural. This is not -- our brands and our brand health continues to be top notch. We continue to focus on what we can win at, winning the shelf, winning execution, continuing to bring interesting innovation to the table that allows us to continue to outperform the overall category. But like -- as you would expect, we're going to need and want to see some improvement in the consumer brand health before we're able to correctly project how long some of these challenges are going to last. Garth, anything you want to add?

總而言之，它是非結構性的。事實並非如此——我們的品牌和品牌健康狀況仍然處於一流水平。我們將繼續專注於我們能夠取勝的領域，贏得貨架、贏得執行，並繼續帶來有趣的創新，讓我們能夠繼續超越整體類別。但是，正如您所期望的那樣，我們需要並且希望看到消費者品牌健康狀況有所改善，然後我們才能正確預測這些挑戰將持續多久。加思，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Just on some of the macro data points, and I'll give you sort of how we're thinking about that for the forecast period that we provided details on last night. We're not expecting any material improvement over this forecast period. Some of the macro trends that we're seeing and that we're tracking are unemployment and obviously, unemployment has started to stabilize across the board, but we have seen weakness in those 4,000 calorie job sectors that have a higher impact on beer consumption.

是的。僅就一些宏觀數據點而言，我會向您介紹我們對昨晚提供的預測期的看法。我們預計在此預測期內不會出現任何實質的改善。我們看到並追蹤的一些宏觀趨勢是失業率，顯然，失業率已開始全面穩定，但我們看到對啤酒消費影響較大的 4,000 卡路里工作領域的疲軟。

Year-over-year, real disposable personal income reached a two year low in January and stayed low in February. Consumer sentiment rather, reached a two and a half year low in March and long-term expectations from consumers isn't expected to change anytime soon. We've seen inflation rather, the expectations for inflation to not get as -- to not rebound quite as quickly as we had expected and the outlook for GDP growth now is a little bit more muted than it was.

與去年同期相比，1月實際可支配個人收入達到兩年來的最低水平，2月份也維持在低位。相反，3 月消費者信心指數跌至兩年半以來的最低點，預計消費者的長期預期短期內不會改變。我們看到通貨膨脹，但預期通貨膨脹不會像我們預期的那樣迅速反彈，而且現在 GDP 成長前景比以前略顯低迷。

So we're not expecting any big improvements in that. As we go through calendar year 2025, we may see some of that moderate a bit and into '26, so maybe some marginal improvement. But for the forecast period, we're not expecting any material improvement in the macroeconomic conditions.

所以我們並不期待這方面會有什麼大的改善。當我們進入 2025 年時，我們可能會看到這種情況有所緩和，到 2026 年，可能會出現一些微小的改善。但在預測期內，我們預期宏觀經濟狀況不會有任何實質改善。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

So I was hoping to talk more near term and just kind of get some perspective just in terms of what's happening in terms of beer top line growth. Currently, obviously, a challenging exit rate and the guidance does seem to imply some improvement from that exit rate. So can you maybe just help us frame how we should be thinking about the guidance from here? Any considerations that we should consider as it relates to 1Q? And then just any thoughts in terms of what we should anticipate price versus volume?

因此，我希望更多地談論近期的情況，並就啤酒收入成長的情況獲得一些看法。目前，退出率顯然具有挑戰性，而指導意見似乎確實暗示退出率會有所改善。那麼，您能否幫助我們構思我們該如何思考這裡的指導呢？與 1Q 相關的哪些事項我們應該考慮？那麼，對於我們應該如何預測價格與銷量，您有什麼想法嗎？

Well, I think if you'll recall from last year, the strongest quarter that we had and frankly that the industry had was our fiscal Q1. So while we don't make any habit, as you know of giving quarterly guidance, certainly, the biggest overlap that we have is in this very first quarter as the business started to soften for the industry as well as for us as you progressed through the back half of last year.

嗯，我想如果你還記得去年，我們以及坦白說整個產業表現最強勁的一個季度就是我們的財政第一季。因此，雖然我們沒有養成提供季度指導的習慣，但可以肯定的是，我們最大的重疊是在今年第一季度，因為隨著去年下半年的進展，整個行業和我們的業務都開始疲軟。

So that -- when you combine that with some of the socioeconomic climate issues that I've already referred to, I think you're going to see some volatility as the year goes on. Again, the key thing for us, and I know I'm repeating myself, but I think it's important to recognize, our brand health remains best of class. And in the longer run, that will continue to pay dividends for us as consumers get back to a normalized behavioral pattern.

所以——當你將其與我已經提到的一些社會經濟環境問題結合起來時，我認為隨著時間的推移你會看到一些波動。再次強調，對我們來說，關鍵的是，我知道我在重複自己，但我認為重要的是要認識到，我們的品牌健康狀況仍然是最好的。從長遠來看，隨著消費者恢復正常的行為模式，這將繼續為我們帶來回報。

Bill Kirk, ROTH MKM.

比爾·柯克（Bill Kirk），ROTH MKM。

So some people, including the Teamsters and maybe one of the mega brewers, they seem to be trying to drive a wedge between American beer and imported beer. Are they having any success with that in the eyes of consumers? And how much influence do you think those type of groups have over alcohol tariff policies?

因此，包括卡車司機工會和一些大型啤酒釀造商在內的一些人似乎試圖在美國啤酒和進口啤酒之間製造分裂。在消費者眼中，他們取得了成功嗎？您認為這些團體對酒精關稅政策有多大影響？

It's an interesting question, Bill. Tough to answer some of that question. What I would say is one of the things that we're proud of as a company is our 80 years as an American company. As you know, we're -- our ownership is entirely in this country, although we make most of our beer in Mexico because we have Mexican heritage brands. But we spend roughly $1 billion a year in the United States market supporting our brands.

這是一個有趣的問題，比爾。有些問題很難回答。我想說的是，我們作為一家公司感到自豪的事情之一是我們作為一家美國公司已有 80 年的歷史。如你所知，我們的所有權完全在這個國家，儘管我們的大部分啤酒是在墨西哥生產的，因為我們擁有墨西哥傳統品牌。但我們每年在美國市場花費約 10 億美元來支持我們的品牌。

We have many of our grains and our barleys and our corn grown in the Mountain West of the United States for inputs. I think when the overall Teamsters take a very hard look, we are very supportive of the Teamsters. I think we have brought more jobs to this marketplace than any other competitor has because of the growth of our business over time through our distributor network.

我們的許多穀物、大麥和玉米都產自美國西部山區，作為投入品。我認為，當整個卡車司機工會認真審視時，我們會非常支持卡車司機工會。我認為，由於我們的業務透過經銷商網路不斷發展，我們為這個市場帶來的就業機會比其他任何競爭對手都要多。

So I think as people take a real hard look at what our company is and how we have performed in the marketplace, they will recognize that we have done an exceptional job of building US jobs as we've also built our business in Mexico to support those US jobs.

因此，我認為，當人們認真審視我們的公司以及我們在市場上的表現時，他們會認識到，我們在創造美國就業機會方面做得非常出色，因為我們也在墨西哥建立了業務來支持這些美國就業機會。

Andrew Strelzik, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Andrew Strelzik。

I appreciate all the detail on the guidance. Obviously, it's a very fluid environment. I guess when you just think through all the assumptions that you've made here over the next and recasting kind of the next three years. Where do you think there's the biggest risk to your assumptions and the biggest -- maybe where we might look back and say, hey, that turned out to be a little bit conservative ?

我感謝指導中的所有細節。顯然，這是一個非常不穩定的環境。我想，當你仔細考慮你在未來三年所做的所有假設並重新制定未來三年的計劃時。您認為您的假設面臨的最大風險是什麼？也許我們回頭看看，會發現，這有點保守。？

I think the single biggest risk that we have is where the consumer is and how long their concerns last. If we had a crystal ball on that, it'd be a lot easier to make some projections because as the consumer feels better about things, that will help not only our business, but the overall category.

我認為我們面臨的最大風險是消費者在哪裡以及他們的擔憂會持續多久。如果我們有一個水晶球，那麼做出一些預測就會容易得多，因為隨著消費者對事物的感覺更好，這不僅有助於我們的業務，而且有助於整個類別。

Believe me, we'd like to see a healthy category. That would be to everyone in our industry's benefit. And we certainly always like to see the industry succeed as we succeed. So that's the biggest variable that I think is out there when does the consumer come around.

相信我，我們希望看到一個健康的類別。這對我們行業中的每個人都有好處。我們當然也希望看到我們的成功帶動整個產業也能獲得成功。所以我認為這是最大的變量，即消費者何時會出現轉變。

We're going to stay crystal clear focused on the variables that we can control, as I've talked to earlier today. But the consumer sentiment and the consumers' desire to get back out and shop and be comfortable in the socioeconomic environment is probably the single biggest variable that's tough to predict.

正如我今天早些時候談到的，我們將始終清晰地關注我們能夠控制的變數。但消費者情緒以及消費者重返購物並在社會經濟環境中感到舒適的願望可能是最難預測的變數。

Gerald Pascarelli, Needham & Company.

傑拉爾德·帕斯卡雷利（Gerald Pascarelli），Needham & Company。

I just had a housekeeping item on the wine business. So the $41 million impact that you called out in your commentary, can you provide some detail on when you expect that to hit the operating income? Is that going to be in the first quarter of 2026? I guess that's my first question. Just any color on the cadence.

我剛剛對葡萄酒生意有了一點了解。那麼，您在評論中提到的 4,100 萬美元的影響，您能否提供一些細節，說明您預計何時會影響營業收入？那會是 2026 年第一季嗎？我想這是我的第一個問題。任何符合節奏的顏色都可以。

And then as we think about the cost savings, I think $100 million of the $200 million is coming out of wine. Is that going to be more pronounced -- a more pronounced benefit to the operating income looking like if we had to look to 2027 or 2028, is that going to be more of a benefit when we get to 2027? So again, any color on the cadence there, I think, would be helpful.

然後，當我們考慮成本節省時，我認為 2 億美元中的 1 億美元來自葡萄酒。這是否會更加明顯 - 對營業收入帶來更明顯的好處，如果我們展望 2027 年或 2028 年，到 2027 年這是否會帶來更多好處？因此，我認為，任何有關節奏的顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. So the $41 million that you referenced that was called out in the prepared materials, that will kind of happen throughout the year. So just -- it won't be any one big quarter where that hits, but throughout the year. And then in terms of the cost savings, we called this out in our materials, right? So it's about $100 million in total for Wine and Spirits.

是的。因此，您提到的準備好的材料中提到的 4100 萬美元將在全年內實現。所以——這不會在任何一個季度發生，而是全年都會發生。然後就成本節約而言，我們在材料中提到了這一點，對嗎？因此，葡萄酒和烈酒的總價值約為 1 億美元。

We're expecting about $55 million in -- or in fiscal 26. So the majority of the actions that we will take to achieve that $100 million savings will occur in FY26. It's just you won't get the full run rate of that until you move into FY27 and then maybe a little bit into FY28.

我們預計 26 財年的營收約為 5,500 萬美元。因此，我們為實現 1 億美元節省而採取的大部分行動將在 2026 財政年度實施。只是，直到進入 FY27 並且可能進入 FY28 之後，您才可能獲得其全部運行率。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的達拉‧莫森尼安 (Dara Mohsenian)。

So clearly, a pretty big revision in long-term beer sales growth from the 7% to 9% range to 2% to 4% in fiscal 27 and 28. So can you just give us a little more detail on how much of that is just related to the external environment and more conservatism on macros?

因此顯然，長期啤酒銷售成長率將從 27 和 28 財年的 7% 至 9% 大幅調整至 2% 至 4%。那麼，您能否向我們詳細介紹其中有多少與外部環境以及宏觀保守主義有關？

How much of it is pressure points maybe that are more durable on the beer category, health and wellness demographics, et cetera? And then a third bucket of market share opportunity for STZ. Just give us a sense of conceptually how much of that falls into each bucket.

其中有多少是啤酒類別、健康和保健人口統計等方面更持久的壓力點？這是 STZ 的第三個市佔率機會。只需讓我們從概念上了解每個桶中有多少是屬於其中的。

And I realize this is like the eighth version of this question you've gotten on the call, but I guess the point is, we're kind of hearing from you guys, your tone is that the beer depletion slowdown, it's more driven by short-term factors. Obviously, we understand the difficult macro environment.

我知道這就像您在電話中聽到的這個問題的第八個版本，但我想重點是，我們聽到了你們的聲音，您的語氣是啤酒消耗放緩，這更多是由短期因素驅動的。顯然，我們了解宏觀環境的艱辛。

But at the same time, you're making pretty large revisions to beer sales growth post fiscal 26, which should be significantly macro depressed based on what we're seeing. So I'm just trying to sort of bridge those two points and how you guys think about that conceptually if that makes sense.

但同時，你們對 26 財年之後的啤酒銷售成長做出了相當大的修改，根據我們所看到的情況，這應該會受到宏觀上的顯著抑制。因此，我只是試著將這兩點連結起來，看看你們從概念上如何看待這個問題，如果這說得通的話。

Yes. It totally does, Dara. Our points are we have a near-term issue as it relates to consumer sentiment. Very difficult to predict how long that will last or not. And so as we look at the fiscal year that we're in, we expect that it very well could be a significant factor throughout this fiscal year. I think the question is, when does the consumer sentiment turn around? That's the one that's very difficult to project.

是的。確實如此，達拉。我們的觀點是，我們有一個與消費者情緒有關的近期問題。很難預測這種情況會持續多久。因此，當我們回顧當前的財政年度時，我們預計這很可能成為整個財政年度的一個重要因素。我認為問題是，消費者情緒何時會轉變？這是一個非常難以預測的問題。

But again, this is where we go back to, you have a shorter-term issue, you have a near-term issue. You don't have a brand health issue. I mean I look at brand we don't always talk about on every single call, but Pacifico. Pacifico was up 16% last year. It continues to grow and get consumer demand. It's -- and I've called it out in years past, an early-stage Modelo because it's shown a similar growth profile to what Modelo did sort of a decade ago.

但是，我們再次回到這個問題，你有一個短期問題，你有一個近期問題。您沒有品牌健康問題。我的意思是，我們並不總是在每次通話中談論這個品牌，而是 Pacifico。Pacifico 去年上漲了 16%。它持續增長並獲得消費者需求。它是——我在過去幾年裡就曾指出過，它處於早期階段，因為它顯示出與十年前 Modelo 類似的成長概況。

The punchline to that is we have strength within our brands. We have new innovation agenda items that will open up new consumer occasions and new consumers to our franchises. And we're going to continue to work on the controllables. It's very difficult for us to project some of the socioeconomic elements that are going to impact it. And it was our belief that it could be longer than we'd all anticipated. It's simply an area we can't answer, and that, therefore, is all reflected in the guidance we provided.

關鍵在於我們的品牌實力雄厚。我們有新的創新議程，將為我們的特許經營開闢新的消費機會和新的消費者。我們將繼續致力於可控因素的研究。我們很難預測一些會對其產生影響的社會經濟因素。我們相信，這可能比我們預期的要長。這只是我們無法回答的領域，因此，這一切都反映在我們所提供的指導中。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

If I can just follow up on that, Bill. So many times we're hearing sort of nonstructural, nonstructural and there's a lot of macro stuff, of course. But at the same time, the long-term algorithm has changed quite a bit. And it feels like maybe some of it is structural and that could be law of large numbers. Is there may be a revision in expectations for Hispanic population growth in the United States? Just is there anything maybe bigger in there that we should be aware of that part of the calculus?

如果我可以跟進的話，比爾。很多時候我們聽到的是非結構化的東西，當然還有很多宏觀的東西。但同時，長期演算法已經發生了很大變化。感覺也許其中一些是結構性的，可能是大數定律。美國對西班牙裔人口成長的預期是否會發生修正？這其中是否存在更大的問題，以至於我們應該意識到微積分的這一部分？

No, I don't think so. I think that when you look at lots of factors, when you look at our awareness levels versus some of the competition, when you look at our shelf positions versus some of the larger competition, we still have a lot of runway to grow. We have a lot of expansion capability of reaching using Modelo as an example, into the non-Hispanic community.

不，我不這麼認為。我認為，當你考慮很多因素時，當你將我們的知名度與一些競爭對手進行比較時，當你將我們的貨架位置與一些更大的競爭對手進行比較時，我們仍然有很大的發展空間。以 Modelo 為例，我們具有很強的擴展能力，可以涵蓋非西班牙裔社區。

We have only been investing against the non-Hispanic community for the last several years. We have increased our amount of marketing spend. As you know, in the back half of last year, we increased our spend even though the consumer was pulling back. And we're seeing that as providing great returns to our business.

過去幾年來，我們一直在針對非西班牙裔社區進行投資。我們增加了行銷支出。如您所知，去年下半年，儘管消費減少，但我們仍增加了支出。我們認為這為我們的業務帶來了豐厚的回報。

So we believe there's still a lot of opportunity for our business going forward that most of what is going on is socioeconomic issues that we believe will moderate over time. The question is, what's that time horizon? That's a bit of a difficult one to answer.

因此，我們相信，我們的業務未來仍有許多機會，目前發生的大部分問題是社會經濟問題，我們相信這些問題會隨著時間的推移而得到緩和。問題是，這個時間範圍是多久？這個問題有點難回答。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

So Bill or Garth, it seems that you have collected hard data to inform you on the new guidance. So I think it would be helpful if you can comment on what has happened with beer volumes in the more Hispanic ZIP codes against the general public, perhaps in the later part of the fiscal Q4.

所以 Bill 或 Garth，看來你們已經收集了確鑿的數據來告知你們有關新指南的資訊。因此，我認為如果您能評論一下西班牙裔較多的郵政編碼地區的啤酒銷量相對於普通公眾的銷量變化情況，可能會有所幫助，也許是在財政第四季度的後期。

And then I definitely understand the loyalty and the demographic bonus of this cohort from covering Grupo Modelo when it was public exporting decades ago. And that strength, of course, kind of carried over to you as an importer. Can you also tell us like how that -- I mean, obviously, against the general public has shaped your information -- I mean, your decision to reduce long term. And also related to that, you invested close to 9% of sales into the beer business in terms of A&P. And obviously, you have been investing that $1 billion, as you said.

然後，我當然理解這群人在幾十年前 Grupo Modelo 公開出口時報道該集團時的忠誠度和人口優勢。當然，這種優勢也延伸到了你作為進口商。您能否也告訴我們，那件事——我的意思是，顯然，針對公眾的言論如何影響了您的信息——我的意思是，您決定長期減少信息。與此相關的是，您將近 9% 的銷售額投入了啤酒業務的廣告和宣傳方面。顯然，正如您所說，您一直在投資 10 億美元。

So just thinking of the 8.5% that you gave as a guidance for fiscal 26, how should we be thinking given, one, you have already gained a lot of distribution. Of course, you're going to gain additional 10%. And how are you're going to be, I think, shifting given that you're becoming more general public as we go? How we should be thinking about all these dynamics?

因此，僅考慮您給出的 26 財年 8.5% 的指導，我們應該如何考慮，首先，您已經獲得了很多分配。當然，你還會獲得額外的 10%。我認為，隨著你們變得越來越大眾化，你們將會發生怎樣的改變？我們應該如何思考所有這些動態？

Sure. So let's try to take that in some order here. Relative to Hispanic consumer behavior, one of the things we've seen both factually and anecdotally is that there has been some channel shifts in what that consumer is doing. So historically, you saw overweighting to stores that were largely Hispanic consumer-based and C-stores. Both of those, we have seen some shifting into broader chain-based accounts that are larger accounts.

當然。因此，讓我們嘗試按照某種順序來處理這個問題。相對於西班牙裔消費者的行為，我們從事實和傳聞中看到的一件事是，消費者的行為管道發生了一些轉變。因此，從歷史上看，您會看到主要以西班牙裔消費者為主的商店和 C 商店的權重過高。我們看到，這兩種帳戶都轉向了更廣泛的基於鏈的帳戶，也就是更大的帳戶。

And I think that reflects some of the concerns that we've talked about earlier that the Hispanic consumer is seeing across their broader life and lifestyle. Relative to the 8.5%, we continue -- keep in mind that with the growth profile that we have every year, that continues to be an increase in the amount of spend that we have put against our business. And because of the very strong cost agendas that we have, we continue to put more fuel on that fire where appropriate to continue to support our business.

我認為這反映了我們之前談到的西班牙裔消費者在其更廣泛的生活和生活方式中所看到的一些擔憂。相對於 8.5% 的比例，我們繼續——請記住，隨著我們每年的成長情況，我們用於業務的支出金額將繼續增加。而且由於我們的成本計劃非常嚴格，我們會繼續在適當的情況下加大投入，以繼續支持我們的業務。

We are going to continue to do exactly that. Our cost agenda, as you saw, we are expecting $200 million over the next two and a half fiscal years based on a strong cost agenda. And we believe that some of that will get reinvested against our business to help drive future success along those lines.

我們將繼續這樣做。我們的成本議程，正如您所看到的，基於強大的成本議程，我們預計未來兩個半財年的成本將達到 2 億美元。我們相信，其中一部分資金將會重新投資於我們的業務，以幫助推動未來的成功。

But we test and we review our marketing approach, as you would expect on a quarter-by-quarter basis. But we're quite pleased that we continue to see very strong returns for the spend that we put against our beer business.

但我們會按季度測試和審查我們的行銷方法，正如您所期望的那樣。但我們非常高興地看到，我們在啤酒業務上的投入繼續獲得非常豐厚的回報。

Bill, if you don't mind, I'll just weigh in a couple more just on the marketing spend, right? I mean, as Bill just noted, we don't compromise on our marketing spend. It's a very disciplined approach. You've heard us say this before, we've got a lot of efficiencies with our media agencies in terms of the effectiveness and spend. And we will continue to target being the number one and number two share of voice with Modelo and Corona.

比爾，如果你不介意的話，我就再多談談行銷支出的問題，對嗎？我的意思是，正如比爾剛才指出的，我們不會在行銷支出上妥協。這是一種非常嚴謹的方法。您之前就聽我們說過，我們的媒體代理商在效率和支出方面已經取得了很大的進步。我們將繼續致力於成為 Modelo 和 Corona 的第一和第二大話語權佔有者。

And we've increased our sponsorship or our spend in -- with March Madness, with soccer, with Major League Baseball and with college football. So we're not shortchanging by any means the marketing investment behind our beer brands.

我們還增加了對瘋狂三月、足球、美國職棒大聯盟和大學橄欖球的贊助或支出。因此，我們絕對不會減少啤酒品牌背後的行銷投資。

Carlos Laboy, HSBC.

卡洛斯·拉博伊（Carlos Laboy），匯豐銀行。

One interpretation of your three year guidance and its long-term implication is that Corona Extra is the Bud Light of 2008, just a declining aging brand with volume declines that the rest of the portfolio might not be able to offset. Can you make the case for Corona Extra as you see it evolving?

對您的三年指導及其長期影響的一種解釋是，Corona Extra 是 2008 年的百威淡啤，只是一個正在走下坡路的老品牌，其銷量下滑，而投資組合中的其他產品可能無法彌補這一下滑。從您看到 Corona Extra 的發展歷程來看，您能為其辯護嗎？

And I remember that in 2008, you were able to restabilize Corona actually where Bud Light couldn't. How are you planning to stabilize it now and return that to growth? And might that be one of the structural kind of hurdles that you need to clear here that Kaumil was maybe alluding to in an earlier question.

我記得 2008 年，你們成功重振 Corona 啤酒，而百威淡啤酒卻未能。您現在計劃如何穩定經濟並使其恢復成長？這是否是您需要清除的結構性障礙之一，Kaumil 在先前的問題中可能提到過這一點。

So a couple of things as it relates to Corona. First of all, I think it's important to think about Corona about the brand family. Corona Familiar is one of our strong growth players in today's market. We have introduced Corona Sunbrew this year, which we're very encouraged about in its early days. We feel that's going to reach a different consumer and provide the opportunity for improvement in that particular piece.

有幾件事與 Corona 有關。首先，我認為思考 Corona 的品牌家族非常重要。Corona Familiar 是我們當今市場上成長強勁的公司之一。我們今年推出了 Corona Sunbrew，這款產品上市初期我們感到非常鼓舞。我們認為這將會吸引不同的消費者，並為該特定產品的改進提供機會。

Remember, it's got strong brand equity and awareness. It's the number one brand in the mind of consumers and the most loved brand in the mind of consumers in the United States. So Corona still has a very strong consumer base and consumer franchise.

請記住，它具有強大的品牌資產和知名度。是消費者心目中第一品牌，也是美國消費者心中最愛的品牌。因此，Corona 仍然擁有非常強大的消費者基礎和消費者特許經營權。

Interestingly enough, it is one of our best returns against our advertising approach, very, very strong. And we're increasing that spend in this fiscal year versus what we have done in the past. So we're -- we remain optimistic about Corona. And we expect that, that's going to continue to be an important part of our brand flow going forward.

有趣的是，這是我們廣告方式帶來的最佳回報之一，而且非常非常強勁。與過去相比，我們本財年將增加這方面的支出。因此，我們對 Corona 仍然持樂觀態度。我們預計，這將繼續成為我們未來品牌流程的重要組成部分。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

I wanted to go back to the beer margin questions that were asked before. Just a clarification. So on slide 14, you guys showed that you're expecting COGS inflation of low to mid-single digit through fiscal 28, including net of cost savings. So on a net basis, you still have cost inflation.

我想回到之前問過的啤酒利潤問題。只是澄清一下。因此，在第 14 張投影片上，你們表明，預計到 28 財年，COGS 通膨率將達到低到中等個位數，包括成本節約的淨值。因此，從淨值來看，成本仍然會膨脹。

Depreciation, even though you're mitigating some of the incremental addition -- capacity addition is still going up. And the volume environment is also softer. So I assume there's a little bit less fixed cost leverage, although still positive. So can you help me understand what are the offset to all these headwinds on beer margins that allow you to maintain the beer margin unchanged.

折舊，即使你減輕了一些增量——容量增加仍然在上升。且音量環境也更加柔和。因此我認為固定成本槓桿會稍微減少一些，儘管仍然是正數。那麼，您能否幫助我了解，有哪些措施可以抵消啤酒利潤率面臨的所有這些不利因素，從而保持啤酒利潤率不變？

No. I mean look, as we said earlier, there will be volume increases, which will help. There will be pricing in that 1% to 2%, which will help. Those cost initiatives will keep our inflation or will help mitigate that cost inflation and we'll manage depreciation. So that's where we feel comfortable saying we'll be in 39% to 40% operating margins. It's all of that put together.

不。我的意思是，正如我們之前所說，銷量會增加，這會有所幫助。這 1% 到 2% 之間會有定價，這會有所幫助。這些成本措施將控制通貨膨脹或有助於緩解成本通貨膨脹，並且我們將控制折舊。因此，我們可以放心地說，我們的營業利潤率將達到 39% 至 40%。所有這些加在一起。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

First, Bill, Garth, thank you for putting a stake in the ground. This is not an easy environment to try to forget about forecasting next month, let alone the next few years. And so whether it's accurate or not, it's just that you put a stake in the ground, you gave us some detail, it's really helpful.

首先，比爾、加思，感謝你們的貢獻。在這種環境下，人們很難忘記下個月的預測，更不用說未來幾年的預測了。所以，無論它是否準確，它只是提供了一個依據，你給了我們一些細節，這真的很有幫助。

My question is more around, as we're thinking about margins in beer and for the whole enterprise actually, just structurally, is the $200 million in savings that we talked about yesterday, is most of that just a -- is most of that related to the divestiture of the parts of the wine business and kind of reducing some of the stranded overhead?

我的問題更多的是，當我們考慮啤酒的利潤率以及整個企業的利潤率時，實際上從結構上來說，我們昨天談到的 2 億美元的節省，其中大部分是否只是 - 其中大部分是否與剝離部分葡萄酒業務並減少一些擱淺的間接費用有關？

And I guess what's really underneath my question is, as things evolve, should we expect there could be some opportunities to drive more efficiency and especially as hopefully, the landscape sort of becomes more clear?

我想我的問題背後的真正意義是，隨著事態的發展，我們是否應該期待有一些機會來提高效率，特別是希望前景變得更加清晰？

Yes, Bryan, thanks for the question. And I think I understood it. So let me try to answer it. As we said, the over $200 million of annualized savings, of that, about $100 million of that is associated with the wine business. And that comes out after the divestiture.

是的，布萊恩，謝謝你的提問。我想我明白了。那麼讓我試著回答一下。正如我們所說，每年超過 2 億美元的節省，其中約 1 億美元與葡萄酒業務有關。這是在資產剝離之後才出現的。

The remainder of that really is across our corporate functions as well as some in beer. So it is a reset as we try to make sure that we've got the most capable organization with the best skills and resources and investments behind it to deliver on our strategic priorities going forward.

其餘部分實際上涉及我們的公司職能以及一些啤酒部門。因此，這是一個重新開始的過程，我們試圖確保我們擁有最有能力的組織，擁有最好的技能、資源和投資，以實現我們未來的策略重點。

I think we've got a pretty good history around discipline of cost management. And so to the extent we identify areas over and above what we shared yesterday, we absolutely would execute on those. But it's a pretty -- the amount of cost we're taking out is, I think it's a pretty aggressive yet very achievable amount and most of which we execute on this year.

我認為我們在成本管理方面有著相當良好的歷史。因此，只要我們確定了超出昨天所分享範圍的領域，我們絕對會執行這些領域。但這是一個相當大的數字——我們所削減的成本數額，我認為這是一個相當激進但又非常容易實現的數字，而且我們今年就完成了其中的大部分。

So let me pile on you for once. Bryan, I think one of the things that Garth was just touching on is important. We have -- first of all, we have a superb supply chain capability within our business, and we have already shown our colors around that. As we create more efficiencies over time, we invest that money behind our business to help grow the future.

所以就讓我來幫你添堵一次吧。布萊恩，我認為加斯剛才提到的一件事很重要。首先，我們的業務擁有卓越的供應鏈能力，我們已經在這方面展現了實力。隨著我們隨著時間的推移創造更多的效率，我們將這些資金投資於我們的業務以幫助未來的發展。

That's an approach we have taken for many years now, and it's one that we're going to continue to take. So as our ability to improve the efficiencies in our business continues to grow, we will continue to invest that money on the future of our business.

這是我們多年來一直採取的方法，也是我們將繼續採取的方法。因此，隨著我們提高業務效率的能力不斷增強，我們將繼續將資金投資於業務的未來。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

Maybe a quick one for each of you actually. Bill, similar to how you've discussed a couple of times the factors influencing demand on beer, I'd love any analogous comments you might have on the Wine and Spirits side and just how you see the various factors stacking up to inform the flat to 3% outlook that you have on the portfolio you are planning to retain.

也許實際上對你們每個人來說這都是一個快速的過程。比爾，與您幾次討論過的影響啤酒需求的因素類似，我很想听聽您對葡萄酒和烈酒方面的任何類似評論，以及您如何看待各種因素疊加在一起，以告知您對計劃保留的投資組合持平至 3% 的前景。

And then Garth, maybe you could expand a little bit more detail, if possible, on just how recent results and the revised outlook on beer is influencing how you're approaching the build-out in Veracruz or any of the modular additions at the existing -- to the other facilities? Just any changes that are maybe worth highlighting?

然後，加思，如果可能的話，也許您可以更詳細地說明最近的結果和對啤酒的修訂前景如何影響您在韋拉克魯斯的擴建或現有其他設施的任何模組化擴建？有哪些變化值得強調？

Sure. Starting with wine, I'll let Garth answer the second half of the question. Our thinking around the wine business relates very similar to what we've done in beer, which is this creates a wine and spirits business going forward that plays at the higher end of the business. And that ties in with the long-term premiumization trend that you see across all alcohol beverages. So we've finally gotten our portfolio sort of where we want it so that it reflects that we're playing against that premium and up sector across both segments of our business.

當然。從葡萄酒開始，我請 Garth 回答問題的後半部。我們對葡萄酒業務的想法與我們在啤酒業務中的做法非常相似，即創造一個面向高端業務的葡萄酒和烈酒業務。這與所有酒精飲料的長期高端化趨勢相吻合。因此，我們最終將我們的投資組合調整到了我們想要的水平，這反映出我們在業務的兩個領域都在與高端及更高級別的行業競爭。

To give you a perspective, in the fourth quarter of last year, the retained business in wine and spirits grew 4% in depletions, which I think gives us some confidence and some excitement about what the future can look like for a much narrower but a much more focused higher-end portfolio for our wine business. That business has continued to be much stronger than what we've seen in other sectors of the wine business, which is why we're going to spend our time and energy on that subsegment of the overall wine category. Garth?

為了讓您有一個直觀的了解，去年第四季度，葡萄酒和烈酒的留存業務增長了 4%，我認為這讓我們對未來的前景充滿信心，也讓我們感到興奮，因為我們的葡萄酒業務將擁有更窄但更專注的高端產品組合。這項業務一直比我們在葡萄酒業務的其他領域看到的更加強勁，這就是為什麼我們要把時間和精力投入到整個葡萄酒類別的這個細分領域。加思？

Yes. And then just in terms of the modular approach and changes in how we're thinking about capacity, I mean, there's really nothing more to share than what was in the materials we had earlier today or last night, I should say.

是的。然後就模組化方法和我們對容量的思考方式的變化而言，我的意思是，除了我們今天早些時候或昨晚所掌握的材料之外，真的沒有什麼可以分享的了。

We're going to continue to manage our footprint responsibly and in line with what our volume expectations are. As you've seen, we've reduced our expectations for capacity through FY28 in the materials we shared last night. We're on pace -- specifically to Veracruz, we're on pace to open that. That will be an important brewery for us as we think about the contribution that it has to the overall portfolio. But we'll be really mindful and bring on capacity when it's needed.

我們將繼續負責任地管理我們的足跡並符合我們的數量預期。正如您所看到的，我們在昨晚分享的材料中降低了對 28 財年的產能預期。我們正在按計劃進行——特別是對於韋拉克魯斯，我們正在按計劃開放它。當我們考慮它對整體產品組合的貢獻時，它對我們來說將是一個重要的啤酒廠。但我們會非常注意並在需要時提供容量。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的凱文‧格蘭迪。

I wanted to come back to the investment levels in the beer business. I want to ask it from a little bit of a different angle. Garth, I think you mentioned satisfactory levels. I think looking back, the 8.5% is below the 10% levels where the company was in fiscal 20 and 2021, and you typically are in this 9% to 10% sort of range.

我想回到啤酒業務的投資水準。我想從稍微不同的角度來問這個問題。加思，我想你提到了令人滿意的水平。我認為回顧一下，8.5% 低於公司在 20 財年和 2021 財年的 10% 水平，而通常處於 9% 到 10% 的範圍內。

So I wanted to ask, everyone on the call is sympathetic to the volatility in the environment. Number one, was there any thought to kind of leaning in here, albeit weighing on margins a bit to try to accelerate top line growth, not an uncommon tact, as you guys are well aware in CPG to see companies do that when the top line is waning as it clearly is.

所以我想問一下，電話會議中的每個人都對環境的波動表示同情。第一，有沒有想過採取某種傾斜的方式，儘管這會對利潤率造成一些影響，但是為了加速營收成長，這並不是一種不常見的策略，正如你們在 CPG 中所知，當營收明顯下滑時，很多公司都會這樣做。

And then two, for both of you, should investors perceive this as kind of a philosophical reorientation, if you will, at Constellation, where there's kind of less of a bias towards top line growth and more of a bias towards margin preservation and cash flow, just kind of given what you're experiencing in the business, which would also not be uncommon either. And you might push and say it's not an either/or that's kind of a false choice, but I just would like to hear more about how you're thinking about that balance.

其次，對你們兩位來說，投資人是否應該將此視為一種哲學上的重新定位，如果你們願意的話，在 Constellation，對營收成長的偏向較少，而對利潤率保持和現金流的偏向較多，考慮到你們在業務中遇到的情況，這也並不罕見。您可能會堅持說這不是非此即彼的選擇，而是一種錯誤的選擇，但我只是想聽聽您是如何看待這種平衡的。

So just on the marketing investment. So we feel, as I said earlier, and as Bill said as well, we feel really comfortable around our marketing investment. As we laid out at our Investor Day, our target was to be about 9%. And that's where we were in FY25. We're going to be a little bit below that in FY26 in terms of the forecast. But we don't limit that, right?

所以只是關於行銷投資。因此，正如我之前所說，以及比爾所說的那樣，我們對我們的行銷投資感到非常滿意。正如我們在投資者日上所闡述的那樣，我們的目標是達到 9% 左右。這就是我們 25 財年的狀況。根據預測，2026 財年的銷售額將略低於此水準。但我們不限制這一點，對嗎？

When we talk to our marketing teams, we ask them what they need and they tell us what they need, right? And so this is reflective of what our team thinks it needs to drive the type of performance that's included in our outlook. That being said, and Bill referenced this earlier around our cost savings agenda and how we take savings from our cost savings agenda and reinvest that in high-return opportunities within the business.

當我們與行銷團隊交談時，我們會問他們需要什麼，他們會告訴我們他們需要什麼，對嗎？因此，這反映了我們的團隊認為需要什麼來推動我們展望中所包含的表現類型。話雖如此，比爾之前提到過我們的成本節約計劃，以及我們如何從成本節約計劃中節省資金並將其再投資於業務中的高回報機會。

We did that last year, where in Q3 and Q4, we invested significantly more money in marketing to drive and to support our brands. So that's the discipline that we have on a year-to-year basis or a quarter-to-quarter basis. That won't change.

我們去年就是這樣做的，在第三季度和第四季度，我們在行銷方面投入了更多的資金來推動和支持我們的品牌。這就是我們逐年或逐季度製定的紀律。那不會改變。

And the last piece I'll just say on that before I turn it over to Bill as well is, again, while the percentage is coming down, we've gotten significantly more efficient in the way that we buy media and the way that we manage our marketing spend.

在把話題交給比爾之前，我最後要說的是，雖然百分比正在下降，但我們購買媒體和管理行銷支出的方式已經變得更有效率。

And relative to your comment about has our approach to things changed? The answer is no. Look, six out of the last eight years, we have been the number one Circana large company CPG company in terms of growth industry. It included last calendar year despite the challenges that we saw both within our industry and to some degree, within our brands as part of that industry. But it didn't change the fact that we were the number one large company Circana growth company last year.

相對於您的評論，我們處理事情的方法是否改變了？答案是否定的。你看，在過去的八年裡，有六年我們一直是 Circana 大型 CPG 公司中成長產業排名第一的公司。儘管我們在行業內部以及某種程度上作為該行業一部分的品牌內部都面臨著挑戰​​，但這一數字仍然包括去年。但這並沒有改變我們是去年排名第一的大型公司 Circana 成長型公司的事實。

We expect to continue to see both top line growth and maintaining a strong margin structure of 39% to 40%, as Garth outlined. Our expectation around that hasn't changed. We think both are important, and we're going to do our damnedest to do both of those.

正如 Garth 所概述的，我們預計將繼續看到營收成長並維持 39% 至 40% 的強勁利潤率結構。我們對此的期望沒有改變。我們認為兩者都很重要，我們將竭盡全力去做好這兩件事。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

We're all kind of trying to fish around to figure out what the exact tariff impact is on your can costs. And it sounds like it's pretty sensitive information, so I understand. But I'm just trying to figure out if I have the building blocks right. If you spend like $900 million a year on aluminum cans and it's a 25% tariff, do I just put those two numbers together? Or am I just way too high on that number?

我們都在努力弄清楚關稅對罐頭成本的具體影響。這聽起來像是相當敏感的訊息，所以我理解。但我只是想弄清楚我是否掌握了正確的基本知識。如果您每年在鋁罐上花費 9 億美元，而關稅為 25%，我是否只需將這兩個數字加在一起？或者我對這個數字的估計是否過高？

I would say take a look at the information that we provided in the guidance that we issued last night. And I think that if you look at the top and bottom-line growth rates, you can figure out what the impact is.

我想說的是，請看一下我們昨晚發布的指南中提供的資訊。我認為，如果你看一下頂線和底線成長率，你就能弄清楚其影響是什麼。

Well, there's a lot of other assumptions in those impacts. So what are the other assumptions? Would it be productivity?

嗯，這些影響還有很多其他的假設。那麼其他假設是什麼呢？這會是生產力嗎？

Robert, yes, on an absolute basis, as we disclosed in all the materials, it includes productivity, it includes cost savings. It includes inflationary pressures and so forth. But again, that is all baked into the margin assumption. Tariffs are as well. So all disclosures have been made available as made available.

羅伯特，是的，從絕對意義上講，正如我們在所有材料中所披露的，它包括生產力，也包括成本節約。其中包括通膨壓力等等。但同樣，這一切都已納入利潤假設之中。關稅也是如此。因此，所有揭露資訊均已公開。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可拉弗里、派珀桑德勒。

Just wanted to come back to just the capacity approach, and I recognize you've tried to adjust to match what you expect to need. But maybe help us understand the mix a little bit. It sounds like you're still adding modules besides Veracruz.

只是想回到容量方法，我知道您已經嘗試進行調整以滿足您的預期需求。但也許可以幫助我們稍微理解這種混合。聽起來除了 Veracruz 之外您還在添加模組。

I guess maybe first, are we right to assume that the flexibility you have to ship by sea from Veracruz should at least allow for some potential savings? And if so, what's the thinking to add at all your locations as opposed to just push there? Maybe just would love to understand that a little bit better.

我想也許首先，我們是否可以正確地假設，從韋拉克魯斯海運的靈活性至少應該可以節省一些潛在的成本？如果是這樣，那麼在所有地點添加而不是僅僅推送到某些地點的想法是什麼？也許只是想更好地理解這一點。

Yes. I mean when we look at our brewery footprint, there's a number of things that we take into consideration. One is the size and scale of the brewery. Another is what are the capabilities of that brewery in terms of the brewery capable of producing the entirety of the portfolio and have the complexity to service the entire portfolio, or is it a brewery that's going to be a bit more specialized and run large packaging lines.

是的。我的意思是，當我們考慮我們的啤酒廠足跡時，我們會考慮很多事情。一是啤酒廠的規模和規模。另一個問題是，該啤酒廠的能力如何？該啤酒廠是否能夠生產整個產品組合併具備為整個產品組合提供服務的複雜性？或者該啤酒廠是否更加專業化並運行大型包裝生產線？

And then to your point, we also look at how do we optimize logistics costs in terms of getting product into the market most cost efficiently. So those are the things that kind of go into it. Specifically to Veracruz, while that is further south, and I know that there's been questions around what the impact that will have on logistics going forward. Keep in mind that in the overall footprint, that will be about 3 million hectoliters of the overall 55 million hectoliters. So it's a relatively small piece of the total footprint.

然後回到您的問題，我們也研究如何優化物流成本，以便以最具成本效益的方式將產品推向市場。這些就是其中涉及的內容。具體來說，對於位於更南邊的韋拉克魯斯州來說，我知道有人質疑這將對未來的物流產生什麼影響。請記住，在整體足跡中，這將占到總體 5500 萬百升中的約 300 萬百升。因此，它在整個足跡中所佔的比例相對較小。

We're still reviewing what we -- what options we have from a logistics standpoint to make that as cost effective as possible. But we're also, from a capability standpoint, treating Veracruz as a brewery that will run along production lines of high-volume SKUs and therefore, minimize the cost there and try to offset any incremental logistics costs.

我們仍在審查從物流角度有哪些選擇，以盡可能提高成本效益。但從能力的角度來看，我們也將 Veracruz 視為一個啤酒廠，它將沿著大批量 SKU 的生產線運行，從而最大限度地降低成本，並試圖抵消任何增量的物流成本。

Thank you. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並享受美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。