Constellation Brands Inc (STZ) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Constellation Brands Q3 fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Blair Veenema, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Blair.

大家好，歡迎參加星座品牌公司2026財年第三季業績電話會議和網路直播。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興將電話轉交給投資人關係副總裁布萊爾‧維尼瑪。請繼續，布萊爾。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, all, and welcome to Constellation Brands' Q3 fiscal '26 conference call. I'm here this morning with Bill Newlands, our CEO; and Garth Hankinson, our CFO. We trust you had the opportunity to review the news release, CEO and CFO commentary and accompanying quarterly slides made available in the Investors section of our company's website, www.cbrands.com. On that note, as a reminder, reconciliations between the most directly comparable GAAP measure and any non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are included in the news release and website.

謝謝你，凱文。各位早安，歡迎參加星座品牌公司2026財年第三季電話會議。今天早上我和我們的執行長比爾紐蘭茲以及財務長加思漢金森一起在這裡。我們相信您已有機會查閱公司網站 www.cbrands.com 投資者關係欄位中發布的新聞稿、執行長和財務長的評論以及相關的季度報告投影片。在此提醒您，新聞稿和網站中均包含與本次電話會議討論的任何非GAAP財務指標最直接可比較的GAAP指標之間的調節表。

And we encourage you to also refer to the news release and Constellation's SEC filings for risk factors that may impact forward-looking statements made on this call. Before turning the call over to Bill and Garth, please keep in mind that, as usual, answers provided today will be referencing comparable results unless otherwise specified.

我們也建議您參考新聞稿和星座集團向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能影響本次電話會議中所做的前瞻性陳述的風險因素。在將電話轉給比爾和加斯之前，請記住，除非另有說明，否則今天提供的答案將照例參考類似結果。

Lastly, in line with prior quarters, I would ask that you limit yourselves to one question per person, which will help us to end our call on time. Thanks in advance, and over to your questions.

最後，與前幾個季度一樣，我請求各位每人只提一個問題，這樣可以幫助我們按時結束通話。謝謝，接下來請問各位有什麼問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛集團。

Hope you're doing well and happy new year. I guess I had a question on your beer op margins. They came in a lot stronger than expected in the quarter despite the volume deleverage. So hoping you could talk further on some of the puts and takes behind this strength. And then thinking about your full year guidance, which you maintain, it does imply much more modest beer op margins in the fourth-quarter, which I know seasonally is a lower quarter.

希望你一切都好，新年快樂。我想問一下關於你們啤酒業務利潤率的問題。儘管銷量有所下降，但他們本季的表現遠超預期。所以希望您能進一步談談這種強勢背後的一些買入和賣出策略。再考慮到您維持不變的全年業績預期，這意味著第四季度啤酒業務的營業利潤率會更加溫和，我知道第四季度通常是淡季。

But is there anything else that is expected to weigh on margins in this next quarter? Maybe aluminum, or if you could just talk through that?

但下個季度還有哪些因素預計會對利潤率造成壓力呢？或許是鋁製的？還是能不能跟我詳細說說？

Thanks for the question, Bonnie, and happy new year to you. So first starting with Q3 margins. As you indicated, volume declines certainly were a headwind in the quarter. Additional headwinds in the quarter were tariffs, as you noted, logistics and then brewery maintenance. Offsetting those headwinds, we continue to make good progress against our cost savings initiatives.

謝謝你的提問，邦妮，祝你新年快樂。首先從第三季利潤率開始。正如您所指出的，銷量下滑無疑是本季的一大不利因素。正如您所指出的，本季其他不利因素包括關稅、物流以及啤酒廠維護。儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們在成本節約計劃方面仍然取得了良好進展。

We had favorable pricing from the actions we've taken in both the spring and in the fall. And then there was a depreciation timing benefit that occurred in Q3, which was favorable on a year-over-year basis. As we think about -- or move to Q4, just to underscore what you said, it is our lowest quarter from a seasonality perspective, makes up about 20% of our overall volume. So fixed overhead absorption will be most amplified in this quarter. The depreciation benefit that we saw in Q3 will actually turn into a little bit of a headwind into Q4 as additional assets come online or are put into service.

由於我們在春季和秋季採取的措施，我們獲得了有利的價格。此外，第三季也出現了折舊時間的好處，與去年同期相比是有利的。當我們考慮——或者說進入第四季度時，正如你所說，從季節性角度來看，這是我們最低的季度，約占我們總銷量的 20%。因此，本季固定間接費用的吸收將最為顯著。我們在第三季看到的折舊收益，實際上會在第四季變成一些不利因素，因為會有更多資產上線或投入使用。

And then tariffs will be a further headwind in Q4, really related to a couple of factors, one of which you mentioned, which was aluminum and the pricing of aluminum, which continues to be pretty strong. There is also the ongoing and as expected shift in product mix, so more to aluminum, from glass, and we'll see that in Q4. And then there's also a timing element to tariffs as to when the tariff gets accrued and goes into inventory and then when it gets released in the P&L. And that will be a bit of a headwind in Q4 as well.

第四季關稅將構成進一步的不利因素，這實際上與幾個因素有關，其中一個因素你提到了，那就是鋁及其價格，鋁的價格仍然相當堅挺。此外，產品組合也在持續且如預期般變化，鋁製品將比玻璃製品更多，我們將在第四季度看到這種情況。此外，關稅還有時間因素，即關稅何時累積並進入庫存，以及何時在損益表中釋放。這也將成為第四季的一個不利因素。

Nadine Sarwat, Bernstein.

Nadine Sarwat，Bernstein。

Another one on beer margins, so perhaps with a longer-term perspective. So you called out a number of the factors in your prepared release and in your answer just now about the pressures that beer margins will face in Q4. So with that in mind, how should we be thinking about the 39% to 40% beer margins for fiscal '27 and '28 that you guided to back in April of last year? Is that something you still believe you can achieve? Should we be thinking of margins closer to where we were this year?

另一篇關於啤酒利潤率的文章，或許可以從更長遠的角度來看。所以，你在事先準備好的新聞稿和剛才的回答中都提到了一些因素，這些因素將導致啤酒利潤率在第四季面臨壓力。那麼考慮到這一點，我們應該如何看待您在去年四月預測的 2027 財年和 2028 財年 39% 至 40% 的啤酒利潤率？你仍然相信自己能夠做到嗎？我們是否應該考慮將利潤率維持在接近今年的水平？

Any color would be helpful. And then if I could just squeeze in one more on depletions. Nice to see that come in, I think, ahead of some expectations. Any color on exit rate or what we're seeing in December? Is there any sequential improvement, or more of the same?

任何顏色都會有幫助。如果我能再擠出一點時間談談損耗問題就好了。很高興看到這個結果，我覺得它超出了一些預期。關於離岸率或12月的情況，有什麼確切的消息嗎？是否有任何逐步改進，還是依然如故？

Thanks, Nadine. I'll take the first question and then Bill will take the second. But as it relates to FY27 and beyond, as we said back in our Q2 earnings call, we'll provide more color on what our expectations are for FY27 and beyond in our April earnings call. That's our normal cadence, if you will. It allows us to see how the rest of the year unfolds from a consumer perspective and from a macroeconomic perspective as well.

謝謝你，娜丁。我先回答第一個問題，然後比爾回答第二個問題。但就 2027 財年及以後而言，正如我們在第二季財報電話會議上所說，我們將在 4 月的財報電話會議上詳細說明我們對 2027 財年及以後的預期。這就是我們正常的節奏。它讓我們能夠從消費者角度和宏觀經濟角度了解今年剩餘時間的發展。

So more to come on that. That being said, the guidance that we provided last April was given under a different set of macroeconomic conditions, and the macroeconomic environment has worsened since that time. So that will all go into our planning process and will be reflected in the guidance that we give in April.

關於這一點，後續還會有更多討論。話雖如此，我們去年四月提供的指導意見是在不同的宏觀經濟條件下作出的，而自那時以來，宏觀經濟環境已經惡化。所以這些都會納入我們的規劃流程，並體現在我們四月發布的指導方針中。

And Nadine, relative to December, December came in roughly where we expected. It was fairly consistent with our expectations. For those of you who track the Circana/IRI data, you saw there was a very strong result against our business around the Christmas holiday. Noting, of course, that that's a great reflection of the strength of our overall brands and the brand health that exists for our brands. And therefore, we were quite comfortable coming out of December as the first month of our last quarter of the year.

至於 Nadine，相對於 12 月份，12 月份的情況大致符合我們的預期。這基本上符合我們的預期。關注 Circana/IRI 數據的朋友應該已經看到，聖誕節假期期間，我們的業務出現了非常強勁的下滑。當然，這也很好地反映了我們整體品牌的實力和品牌的健康狀況。因此，我們很欣慰地看到 12 月是我們一年中最後一個季度的第一個月。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

Want to talk for a second about capacity and CapEx. So in the slide deck, you reiterated the plans for 7 million additional hectoliters of capacity through fiscal '28. I think that implies sort of heavier CapEx in 4Q tied to Veracruz. I just wanted to maybe get an update on how you're thinking about the modular capacity build-out over the next couple of years, managing that against growth projections to support kind of what are really the optimal utilization levels. And particularly, when we think about the fiscal '26 volumetric pace is going to be lower than what you kind of originally thought back in April, to your point, under a very different macro backdrop.

我想簡單談談產能和資本支出。所以在投影片中，你重申了 2028 財年新增 700 萬百升產能的計畫。我認為這意味著第四季度與韋拉克魯斯相關的資本支出將會增加。我只是想了解您是如何考慮未來幾年模組化產能建設的，如何根據成長預測來管理產能建設，以支持真正最佳的利用率水準。尤其是考慮到 2026 財年的銷售成長將低於您在 4 月最初預想的水平，正如您所說，這是在非常不同的宏觀背景下發生的。

Yes. Lauren, thanks for the call. So the approach on the modularity of the breweries is we'll continue with that approach going forward. As we've said over the course of the last couple of quarters, the way we'll manage that really is when we bring assets online, and we'll manage to bring -- or we'll manage through the capacity in that manner. What we've also said though is that when you're building capacity in a manner which we've been building capacity with long-lead items, you are making commitments to that spend.

是的。勞倫，謝謝你的來電。因此，我們將繼續採用模組化方法來建造啤酒廠。正如我們在過去幾個季度所說的那樣，我們管理這個問題的方式實際上是，當我們把資產上線後，我們將設法實現——或者說，我們將以這種方式管理產能。不過我們也說過，當你以我們一直以來使用長週期產品來建立產能的方式來建立產能時，你就是在對這些支出做出承諾。

And our plan for this year is reflective of commitments that we've made on capacity expansion. But again, we continue to monitor this and assess where the volume is expected to be. And again, we'll bring the assets online when we can. And to the extent we can delay or defer CapEx, we will. But there's a lot of long-lead equipment that goes into a brewery, and those commitments have been made.

我們今年的計畫體現了我們對產能擴張所做出的承諾。但是，我們會繼續關注這一情況，並評估預期的交易量。我們會在條件允許的情況下盡快將這些資產上線。如果可以延後或延後資本支出，我們一定會這樣做。但是釀酒廠需要很多交貨週期長的設備，而這些訂單已經做出了。

Rob Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

Rob Ottenstein，Evercore ISI。

Great. Moving more to -- over to the brand side. The Pacifico brand has been an extraordinary success. It's still relatively small, but you've been working on it very diligently for 10-plus years or so. Just wondering, how -- what you've learned about the brand over this time?

偉大的。接下來，我們將更多地轉向品牌方面。Pacifico品牌取得了巨大的成功。雖然規模仍然相對較小，但你已經為此努力了十多年。我只是好奇，在這段時間裡，你對這個品牌有哪些新的體會？

How incremental is it? Any tweaks that you see in terms of the brand positioning and the pressure -- the marketing pressure, investment pressure behind the brand for it to kind of get to what you think is its full potential, which my understanding is to be a very strong number three brand in your portfolio?

增量有多大？您認為在品牌定位和壓力方面，有哪些需要調整的地方？例如行銷壓力、投資壓力，這些壓力旨在讓品牌發揮其全部潛力，據我了解，目標是成為您產品組合中非常強大的第三大品牌？

Yes, Robert. Pacifico, obviously, has been a tremendous success to date, much in the same way that Modelo initially developed in the West of the United States and then has progressively moved East to become the number one player by dollars in the United States. Pacifico is doing a very similar approach. It's the number two brand in the State of California today. It skews younger relative to our overall portfolio and really has resonated well with consumers.

是的，羅伯特。顯然，Pacifico 迄今為止取得了巨大的成功，這與 Modelo 最初在美國西部發展，然後逐步向東擴張，最終成為美國銷售額排名第一的啤酒品牌的方式非常相似。Pacifico公司也採取了非常類似的策略。它目前是加州排名第二的品牌。與我們整體產品組合相比，它的目標客戶群更年輕，並且確實引起了消費者的共鳴。

As you know, it's the number one social -- number one on social media in terms of share of voice, and it has gained 1.5 points in the on-premise. So you're seeing significant gains in that arena as well. So we continue to invest behind this brand. As you point out, we think it's going to be a strong number three in our portfolio as time goes forward. And you should expect to see us continue to put significant emphasis on this as it builds its way across the country, similar to what Modelo did several years ago.

如您所知，它是排名第一的社交媒體——在社交媒體聲量份額方面排名第一，並且在實體店方面也獲得了 1.5 個百分點。所以你也看到了該領域的顯著進展。因此，我們將繼續加大對這個品牌的投入。正如您所指出的，我們認為隨著時間的推移，它將成為我們投資組合中排名第三的重要股票。你們應該會看到我們繼續高度重視這項業務，並使其在全國範圍內發展壯大，就像幾年前 Modelo 所做的那樣。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

Dara Mohsenian，摩根士丹利。

So you mentioned mid-single-digit distribution growth for the beer portfolio in the quarter. Just as we look out to calendar 2026 post the spring resets, do you think it's realistic you can drive shelf space gains for your portfolio with macros where they are? Or is that less realistic just given the weaker velocity we've seen over the last year or so? And maybe also you can just touch on the beer category itself and what you're hearing from retailers as we think about shelf space for the category in the balance of 2026.

所以你提到本季啤酒產品組合的分銷成長率為個位數中段。展望 2026 年春季調整後的日曆，您認為在當前的宏觀經濟狀況下，能否為您的投資組合帶來貨架空間的成長？或者說，考慮到過去一年左右我們看到的較弱的球速，這種說法不太現實？或許您也可以談談啤酒品類本身，以及您在考慮 2026 年剩餘時間裡該品類的貨架空間時，從零售商那裡聽到了哪些意見。

Sure. Let's start with the distribution side. We continue to see distribution as one of our strongest opportunities going forward. Given that our portfolio gained share in 49 of the 50 states, we continue to earn additional distribution capability and distribution positions across the country. Now those will probably change some.

當然。我們先從分銷方面說起。我們仍然認為分銷是我們未來發展中最具優勢的機會之一。鑑於我們的產品組合在 50 個州中的 49 個州獲得了市場份額，我們將繼續在全國範圍內獲得更多的分銷能力和分銷地位。現在這些情況可能會有所改變。

You've seen a radical increase in distribution around Pacifico, going back to Robert's question a moment ago, as well as Victoria, which also has grown double digits for the most recent past. So we continue to see distribution as a significant opportunity going forward. Remember, Modelo itself, despite the fact that it's the number one beer by dollars in the US, it still has 20% fewer PODs than the broader domestic players who we compete against. So there remains plenty of opportunity for distribution to be an important part of the future. That has been reemphasized by our Shopper-First Shelf, which has allowed retailers to recognize the opportunity to build a stronger section.

你已經看到太平洋沿岸地區的分銷大幅增長，這可以追溯到羅伯特剛才提出的問題，維多利亞地區的分銷也在最近一段時間內實現了兩位數的增長。因此，我們仍然認為分銷是未來發展的重要機會。別忘了，Modelo 雖然是美國銷售額排名第一的啤酒，但它的銷售點數量仍然比我們與之競爭的國內其他品牌少 20%。因此，分銷仍然有很大的機會在未來發揮重要作用。我們的「顧客優先貨架」再次強調了這一點，使零售商能夠認識到打造更強大專區的機會。

And that will be a significant part of your category question, is as more people do Shopper-First Shelf, it will be better for the category and, as you would expect, on brands that are growing their share like ours are, it will be good for us as well. Relative to the beer category overall, it still remains challenged and it's largely around the Hispanic consumer.

這將是您關於品類問題的一個重要部分，隨著越來越多的人選擇「購物者優先貨架」策略，這對品類發展會更有利，而且正如您所預期的，對於像我們這樣市場份額不斷增長的品牌來說，這對我們來說也是好事。相對於整個啤酒類別而言，它仍然面臨挑戰，而且主要挑戰在於西班牙裔消費者群體。

75% of the Hispanic consumers are very concerned about the socioeconomic environment and they're being much more careful about their spending patterns, spending much more on what you would call consumer essentials versus other categories. So I think that's going to continue to be volatile going forward.

75% 的西班牙裔消費者非常關注社會經濟環境，他們在消費模式上更加謹慎，在所謂的消費必需品上的支出遠高於其他類別。所以我認為未來市場仍將保持波動。

But this is where our focus remains on controlling the controllables, and that is distribution, that's price pack architecture, that's doing the right things to set ourselves up for a successful future.

但我們的重點仍是控制可控因素，也就是分銷、價格包裝架構，也就是做正確的事情，為成功的未來做好準備。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Drew Levine, JPMorgan.

Drew Levine，摩根大通。

I wanted to follow up again on the beer margins implied for fourth-quarter given the low single-digit absolute COGS increase for the year. Implies gross margins, I think, something in the 47% range. I understand that it is lower volume, as Garth, you well mentioned. But I guess maybe if you could sort of provide a little bit more context on the expected headwind from aluminum and depreciation that you mentioned, any sort of quantification there? I'm just asking because, I guess, last year in fourth-quarter, volumes were down as well and obviously much stronger margin performance. So just on the margins, that would be great.

鑑於全年絕對銷售成本僅增長個位數，我想再次跟進第四季度啤酒利潤率的情況。這意味著毛利率應該在 47% 左右。正如加思所說，我知道它的音量比較低。但我想，如果您能就您提到的鋁價下跌和貶值帶來的預期不利影響提供更多背景信息，比如量化數據，那就太好了？我這麼問是因為，我猜去年第四季銷量也下降了，但利潤率表現明顯好很多。所以，如果只是在邊緣地帶，那就太好了。

And then another follow-up just on the depletions in the off-premise, I think were down 2.9%, ran decently ahead of where we saw both Nielsen and Circana end up in the third-quarter, it's the second-quarter in a row that's happened. So wondering what you're seeing in the independent channels, if it's just sort of a function of easy comparisons, or are you seeing any sort of encouraging trends in that channel?

然後，關於非現場消費的下滑情況，我認為下降了 2.9%，比尼爾森和 Circana 在第三季度的最終結果要好得多，這是連續第二個季度出現這種情況。所以我想知道您在獨立頻道中看到了什麼，這僅僅是因為比較方便，還是您在該頻道中看到了任何令人鼓舞的趨勢？

Yes. So just to reiterate on the margins, what the headwinds were, and again, you noted that it is our low seasonal quarter. Just for clarity, again, it's 20% of our overall volume for the fiscal year. As I mentioned, depreciation, which was a benefit for us in Q3, will be an incremental headwind in Q4 because incremental assets are being placed into service. So that will be a headwind in the quarter.

是的。所以，我再重申一下，有哪些不利因素，而且，您也提到這是我們的淡季。為了更清楚地說明，再次聲明，這占我們本財年總交易量的 20%。正如我之前提到的，折舊在第三季對我們來說是一個利好因素，但在第四季度卻會成為一個不利因素，因為會有新的資產投入使用。所以這將是本季的一個不利因素。

And then on tariff, as expected with tariffs, aluminum pricing has gone up, so the tariff has gone up. There's been an ongoing shift in our business, in our portfolio towards aluminum. That's continued through the fiscal year, right? So we'll see the impact of that in Q4. And then there is a timing element around tariffs, which is you incur the tariff when you bring it into the US, but then it doesn't run through your P&L until you sell it on.

然後，正如預期的那樣，隨著關稅的上漲，鋁價上漲，因此關稅也上漲了。我們的業務和產品組合一直在轉向鋁材方向。這種情況會持續整個財政年度，對嗎？所以我們將在第四季度看到其影響。此外，關稅還有時間因素，即當你把商品帶入美國時會產生關稅，但直到你把商品賣出去時，關稅才會計入你的損益表。

And so given the way tariffs have layered in through the year, there's going to be a higher tariff impact as expected in Q4. Another minor impact, headwind in Q4 is there were some expenses that we expected to incur in Q3 that had pushed into Q4. That's just timing. So a bit of a benefit in Q3 versus a headwind in Q4.

因此，鑑於關稅是全年逐步疊加的，預計第四季度關稅的影響將會更大。第四季的另一個小影響是，一些原本預計在第三季發生的支出被推遲到了第四季。這只是時機問題。所以第三季略有利好，而第四季則面臨不利因素。

Relative to your question related to depletions, I think a couple of things to keep in mind that you don't always see. Some of the regions have less tracked channel coverage, and those have been stronger, on-premise. A year ago, Modelo was number five on draft, today it's number two. I already mentioned when I was answering Robert's question on Pacifico, that we picked up significant share with Pacifico in the on-premise as well. So some of those areas that are not as easily tracked have gone in our favor, and that certainly has helped the depletion layout versus what some of the expectations were.

關於你提出的有關資源枯竭的問題，我認為有幾點需要注意，而這些往往並不為人所知。有些地區的追蹤頻道覆蓋率較低，而且這些地區的在地化程度較高。一年前，Modelo啤酒在選秀中排名第五，如今已躍升至第二名。我在回答羅伯特關於 Pacifico 的問題時已經提到過，我們在現場消費領域也透過 Pacifico 獲得了相當大的市場份額。因此，一些不太容易追蹤的領域對我們有利，這無疑有助於減少資源消耗，使其與一些預期相符。

Gerald Pascarelli, Needham & Company.

Gerald Pascarelli，Needham & Company。

Question for Bill. Just despite the continued macro pressures, your depletions have remained relatively consistent this year, just kind of down 2.5% to 3%, so not getting materially worse. Your Beer Business continues to outperform the category. It looks like scanner showed a little bit of an improvement in December. So just curious how you're thinking about a potential recovery, if at all, in your Beer Business looking out over the next year when you just consider some of the obvious tailwinds, the easier compares, the benefit of the World Cup, those types of things. Any color there would be great.

問比爾一個問題。儘管宏觀經濟壓力持續存在，但今年你的資金消耗量一直保持相對穩定，只是下降了 2.5% 到 3%，所以並沒有實質的惡化。您的啤酒業務持續優於同類產品。看起來掃描器在12月略有改善。所以，我很好奇，在考慮一些顯而易見的利好因素、相對較低的比較基數、世界盃帶來的利好等等因素之後，您如何看待啤酒業務在未來一年內的潛在復甦（如果有的話）。任何顏色都行。

Sure. Obviously, we're cautiously optimistic that we're on the sort of the plateau of where the business will be. But it's been really tough to judge; the volatility has been great. What -- so it's very hard to say that you've sort of hit the bottom. When you look at our Omnibus study, we continue to see Hispanic consumers being particularly concerned.

當然。顯然，我們謹慎樂觀地認為，我們目前正處於業務發展的穩定階段。但很難判斷，因為市場波動性很大。什麼？所以很難說你已經跌到谷底了。從我們的綜合研究來看，我們持續發現西班牙裔消費者尤其關注這個問題。

There seems to have been a little bit of uptick with the broader market community. And as I alluded to earlier, Christmas week was particularly strong for our business. But I think that's more reflective of when consumers are coming out and they're buying. They continue to buy our brands because of the brand health of those brands. There are some things, as you point out, next year, World Cup is a great example, where there will be things that are beer moments.

似乎整體市場情緒略有回升。正如我之前提到的，聖誕節那一週我們的業務表現特別強勁。但我認為這更能反映消費者何時出門購物的情況。他們之所以繼續購買我們的品牌，是因為這些品牌的品牌健康。正如你所指出的，明年世界盃就是一個很好的例子，屆時將會出現一些適合暢飲啤酒的時刻。

And certainly, we believe our beers will help to support those beer moments. But it's very difficult to project at this point how this is all going to go. A lot of it is going to relate to what the -- how the consumer is feeling and how they're feeling about the sort of macroeconomic issues that exist today.

當然，我們相信我們的啤酒將有助於創造美好的啤酒時光。但目前很難預測這一切將如何發展。許多因素都與消費者的感受以及他們對當今存在的宏觀經濟問題的看法有關。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow，TD Cowen。

Thanks for the question, unfortunately, it was also Gerald's question. But maybe if there's a way to think about it just quantitatively, your Hispanic consumer really started feeling the pressure in February of last year. You kind of see it in the data. And I guess what we're all kind of wrestling with is, once we lap that initial shock of restrictions on immigration policy, is it possible that it just gets a little bit less bad? So instead of mid-single-digit declines just theoretically with this cohort, since you're lapping the initial shock, it could be a little bit better than that?

謝謝你的提問，可惜的是，傑拉德也問了同樣的問題。但或許如果僅從量化的角度來看，你的西班牙裔消費者其實是從去年二月開始感受到壓力的。從數據中就能看出這一點。我想我們都在思考的問題是，一旦我們度過了移民政策限制帶來的最初衝擊，情況是否有可能變得稍微好一點？所以，考慮到這群人已經度過了最初的衝擊期，理論上，他們的跌幅不會只有個位數，而是會比預期略好？

Well, we hope -- we assume that you -- we hope you're correct. That would be a lovely outcome. The thing that we consistently see, and as you know, and we've said this in prior quarters, we track it by ZIP code. And with ZIP codes that have greater than 20% Hispanic representation, it still remains very challenging. That has seen some improvement in ZIP codes with less than 20% Hispanic representation, and you see a lot of volatility state by state depending on what is going on with immigration policy in particular markets.

嗯，我們希望——我們假設——我們希望你是對的。那將會是一個令人欣喜的結果。我們一直觀察到的現象，正如您所知，我們在之前的幾個季度也說過，我們是透過郵遞區號來追蹤的。即使在西班牙裔人口比例超過 20% 的郵遞區號地區，情況仍然非常具有挑戰性。在西班牙裔人口比例低於 20% 的郵遞區號地區，情況有所改善，但各州的情況波動很大，這取決於特定市場的移民政策。

So all of those factors have been why it's been very difficult to predict, because you do have that volatility that goes on state by state, market by market. It's why we continue to talk about controlling the controllables. It's why we continue to talk about and put ourselves in a good position to win.

所以，正是由於這些因素，預測才變得非常困難，因為各州、各市場之間都存在著波動性。這就是為什麼我們要不斷強調控制可控因素的原因。這就是為什麼我們要不斷討論並讓自己處於有利於獲勝的位置。

It's why we have focused on the things that are working in our favor, things like Pacifico and Victoria, Modelo Draft, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Non-Alcoholic, all of which are working very well against our business and are positioning us not only to have near-term success, but for the long run as well.

這就是為什麼我們專注於那些對我們有利的事情，例如 Pacifico 和 Victoria、Modelo Draft、Corona Sunbrew、Corona Non-Alcoholic，所有這些都對我們的業務非常有利，不僅使我們在短期內取得成功，而且在長期內也使我們取得成功。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

Filippo Falorni，花旗銀行。

Happy new year. I wanted to ask on the beer pricing environment. You had 1.5% pricing in the quarter, but you have also some negative mix from package types. Can you discuss like how you're thinking that would evolve going forward? Should we still think this dynamic continues?

新年快樂。我想了解一下啤酒的定價環境。本季您的定價策略有 1.5% 的偏差，但套餐類型組合也存在一些負面影響。您能否談談您認為它未來會如何發展？我們是否仍然認為這種趨勢會持續下去？

And then maybe if you can touch on like some of the initiatives that you did with Modelo Oro and Corona Premier in terms of the price adjustments. Are you seeing a volume uptick as a result of the price adjustment there that could we see some more -- in some more other brands to try to respond to the macro environment?

然後，您能否談談您在價格調整方面與 Modelo Oro 和 Corona Premier 合作的一些舉措？您是否觀察到價格調整導致銷售量上升？我們是否可以看到其他品牌也出現類似的成長，以因應宏觀環境的變化？

Sure. We continue to project 1% to 2%. We still think that's an appropriate level. As you know, it will vary higher or lower within that range depending on the market conditions that we face. But to your point, we are quite pleased with the initial work.

當然。我們繼續預測成長率為 1% 至 2%。我們仍然認為這是一個合適的水平。如您所知，根據我們所面臨的市場狀況，該價格會在該範圍內上下波動。但正如您所說，我們對初步工作相當滿意。

As many of you know, during this past -- or this past calendar year, we adjusted Oro and Premier pricing to be more in line with the average price point the consumer was expecting for light beers. We're very pleased with what that looks like. Our trends on Oro and Premier have both improved, and we're pleased with that positioning. It also points to price pack architecture, which is also an important part of what we have done.

正如你們許多人所知，在過去的一年裡，我們調整了 Oro 和 Premier 的價格，使其更符合消費者對淡啤酒的平均預期價格。我們對最終效果非常滿意。我們在 Oro 和 Premier 上的趨勢均有所改善，我們對此排名感到滿意。這也指向了價格包裝架構，這也是我們所做工作的重要部分。

We have added 7-ounce in a number of forms and formats in different states, to again meet the needs of consumers who are concerned about price points because of their socioeconomic concerns and financial concerns that exist at the moment.

為了再次滿足目前因社會經濟和財務問題而關注價格的消費者的需求，我們在不同州增加了多種形式和規格的 7 盎司裝產品。

Again, all of those things are trying to meet the consumer where they are today, and that process will continue going forward.

再次強調，所有這些措施都是為了滿足當今消費者的需求，而這個過程也將持續下去。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

Peter Galbo，美國銀行。

I maybe just wanted to ask a clarifying comment from your prepared remarks about the fourth-quarter specifically. You talked about an expectation of year-over-year volume declines in the Beer Business to improve, I think, in the first sentence. And I just, I wanted to clarify whether that is a shipment comment, a depletion comment, both potentially, but that we should still be expecting kind of a negative in the fourth-quarter and whether it applies to both ships and depletes in beer.

我可能只是想就您準備好的發言稿中關於第四季度的具體內容，請您補充一些說明。我認為，你在第一句話中提到，預計啤酒業的年銷量下滑趨勢將會改善。我只是想澄清一下，這是指出貨量還是庫存消耗，兩者都有可能，但我們仍然應該預期第四季度會出現某種負面情況，以及這是否適用於啤酒的出貨量和庫存消耗。

Garth will add on to what I'm about to say, but as we've made note -- we made note in our last quarter, we expect over the course of the last two quarters that ships and depletes will be basically equal. As you saw, there was some minor variation in this quarter. You would expect that to probably reverse itself next quarter. But over the course of the two, third and fourth-quarters, we expect depletes and ships to basically be exactly the same. Anything you want to add to that, Garth?

Garth 將補充我接下來要說的內容，但正如我們上個季度所指出的，我們預計在過去兩個季度中，出貨量和消耗量將基本相等。正如你所看到的，本季出現了一些細微的波動。預計下個季度這種情況可能會逆轉。但在第二、第三和第四季度，我們預計消耗量和船舶數量將基本保持不變。加思，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Bill, that's precisely right. And the comment was specific to billings, so to your point, so that the second half of the year billings and depletions are largely aligned.

比爾，你說得完全正確。而且該評論專門針對賬單，所以正如你所說，這樣下半年的賬單和支出就能基本保持一致。

Bill Kirk, ROTH Capital Partners.

Bill Kirk，ROTH Capital Partners。

So a different type of question. In December, President Trump signed the executive order pushing to reschedule cannabis. I guess if that happens, how would it impact how you think about your exposures to that segment? And then on the ban on intoxicating hemp and intoxicating hemp beverages, in some states, those have become kind of a real market, do you think you'll benefit if those products go away, those intoxicating hemp beverages go away?

所以這是另一種類型的問題。去年12月，川普總統簽署了行政命令，推動重新安排大麻的管制等級。我想，如果這種情況發生，會如何影響你對你所涉足的那個領域的看法？至於禁止販售含致幻大麻和含致幻大麻飲料，在某些州，這些產品已經形成了一個真正的市場，你認為如果這些產品，這些含致幻大麻飲料消失了，你會受益嗎？

Obviously, we have shares in Canopy that we still have available to us. And I think that could ultimately be interesting as that market develops. But we don't engage on a day-to-day basis in the cannabis business today. I think -- we have not seen a significant issue related to our Beer Business related to hemp. It has mostly been around ready-to-drink and ready-to-serve scenarios where there seems to be interaction there, and that seems to be where most of the interaction has come.

顯然，我們仍然持有 Canopy 的股份。我認為隨著市場的發展，這最終可能會很有趣。但我們目前並未直接參與大麻業務的日常運作。我認為——我們還沒有看到與大麻相關的啤酒業務出現重大問題。互動主要集中在即飲和即食場景中，而且大部分互動似乎都發生在那裡。

But admittedly, consumers make choices around their disposable income and what, where they choose to spend money. And therefore, as this develops, that's certainly something that we're going to be quite aware of and keep our eye on closely.

但不可否認的是，消費者會根據自己的可支配收入做出選擇，決定把錢花在哪裡、花在哪裡。因此，隨著事態發展，我們肯定會對此保持高度關注。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

I was wondering if you could maybe just elaborate a little bit on how to think about World Cup. It's, as you pointed out, just a driver of occasions. But have you -- can you give a sense of maybe what you've seen in the past in terms of maybe a positive lift, or any changes to your spending approach? I realize you're not a sponsor. So do you still plan some ways to kind of spend additionally around it or just kind of benefit from occasion momentum?

我想請您詳細談談您對世界盃的看法。正如你所指出的，它只是某些事件的驅動因素。但是，您能否談談您過去是否看到過積極的成長，或者您的消費方式是否有任何變化？我知道你不是贊助商。所以你還計劃如何額外消費，還是只是想利用活動的動力？

How should we think about just what impact that might have both on the top line side and maybe your spending side?

我們應該如何考慮這可能會對營收和支出產生哪些影響？

Sure. As you would expect that this is a big sporting element for the coming year. Sporting elements tend to be big beer moments. It's also a sport that over-indexes in the Hispanic community. All of those things, therefore, over-index into our business.

當然。不出所料，這將是來年運動界的一大亮點。體育賽事往往是暢飲啤酒的絕佳時機。這項運動在西班牙裔社區也頗受歡迎。因此，所有這些因素都對我們的業務產生了過大的影響。

So we would expect as the consumer engages with that event and the various games that will attest to those, that will have some incremental benefits for us. We will remain as diligent as we always are to get the right promotions and to get the right shelf presence and floor presence around that particular time. We'll also have in-game media, TV media. As you know, Modelo is the number one share of voice and Corona is the number three share of voice in traditional media. All of that will be done consistent with investing against sports, which has been the focus of our attention anyway.

因此，我們預計，隨著消費者參與活動以及各種遊戲，這將為我們帶來一些額外的好處。我們將一如既往地盡心盡力，確保在特定時期內推出合適的促銷活動，並在貨架和地面上獲得合適的陳列效果。我們也將推出遊戲內媒體和電視媒體。如您所知，Modelo 在傳統媒體中的聲量份額排名第一，Corona 排名第三。所有這些都將與做空體育賽事的投資策略保持一致，而這正是我們一直以來的重點。

So we believe that has an -- that creates an opportunity for a strong window of time for beer generally and more specifically to us.

因此，我們認為這為啤酒產業，尤其是我們自身，創造了一個強勁的發展窗口期。

Thank you. We've reached end of our question-and-answer session. And that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。