Constellation Brands Inc (STZ) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Constellation Brands Q3 fiscal year 2025 earnings call.

您好，歡迎參加 Constellation Brands 2025 財年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Joe Suarez, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁喬·蘇亞雷斯 (Joe Suarez)。

Please go ahead, Joe.

請繼續，喬。

Thank you, Kevin.

謝謝你，凱文。

Good morning, all.

大家早安。

Happy New Year and welcome to Constellation's Brands Q3 fiscal '25 conference call.

新年快樂，歡迎參加 Constellation 品牌 25 財年第三季電話會議。

I'm here this morning with Bill Newlands, our CEO; and Garth Hankinson, our CFO.

今天早上我和我們的執行長比爾紐蘭茲 (Bill Newlands) 一起來到這裡。和我們的財務長加斯·漢金森 (Garth Hankinson)。

As a reminder, reconciliations between the most directly comparable GAAP measure and any non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are included in our news release or otherwise available on the company's website at www.cbrands.com. Please refer to the news release and Constellation's SEC filings for risk factors which may impact forward-looking statements made on this call following the call.

謹此提醒，本次電話會議中討論的最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準與任何非 GAAP 財務衡量標準之間的對帳均包含在我們的新聞稿中，或透過公司網站 www.cbrands.com 提供。請參閱新聞稿和 Constellation 向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能影響本次電話會議後前瞻性聲明的風險因素。

Following the call, we'll also be making available in the Investors section of our company's website a series of slides with key highlights of the prepared remarks shared by Bill and Garth in today's call.

電話會議結束後，我們還將在公司網站的投資者部分提供一系列幻燈片，其中包含比爾和加斯在今天的電話會議中分享的準備好的演講的主要亮點。

Before turning the call over to Bill in line with prior quarters and as Kevin just noted, I'd like to ask that we limit everyone to one question per person which will help us end our call on time.

在按照前幾季的規定將電話轉給比爾之前，正如凱文剛才指出的那樣，我想請求我們限制每個人只能提出一個問題，這將有助於我們按時結束電話。

Thanks in advance and now here's Bill.

提前致謝，現在是比爾。

Thanks, Joe, and welcome all to our Q3 fiscal '25 earnings call.

謝謝喬，歡迎大家參加我們的 25 年第三季財報電話會議。

As usual, I will start with a few key points regarding the quarter and our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.

像往常一樣，我將首先介紹有關本季度的幾個要點以及我們對本財年剩餘時間的展望。

First, growth in consumer demand for our beer portfolio sequentially expanded in the third quarter and this in turn drove a marginal uplift in depletions growth relative to Q2.

首先，消費者對我們啤酒組合的需求成長在第三季連續擴大，這反過來又推動了消耗量成長相對於第二季的邊際上升。

This acceleration was supported by the incremental marketing investments we deployed across our core brands in Q3 as we responded to the softer macroeconomic backdrop that began affecting consumer spending during the summer.

這項加速得益於我們在第三季在核心品牌上部署的增量行銷投資，因為我們應對夏季開始影響消費者支出的疲軟宏觀經濟背景。

As a reminder, subdued overall spend and prolonged value seeking behavior among consumers have been key near term limiting factors on demand growth, not only for our portfolio but also for the dollar sales growth rate of total beverage alcohol.

提醒一下，整體支出低迷和消費者長期追求價值的行為一直是近期需求成長的關鍵限制因素，不僅對我們的產品組合而言，而且對總飲料酒精的美元銷售額成長率而言也是如此。

That said, beverage alcohol remains relatively unchanged in its share of total consumer expenditures.

儘管如此，酒精飲料在消費者總支出中所佔的份額保持相對不變。

So we believe its lower rate of growth also reflects the adoption of broader value seeking behavior across consumer goods.

因此，我們認為其較低的成長率也反映了消費品中更廣泛的價值追求行為的採用。

Against that backdrop and given the near term uncertainty on whether consumers will revert to more normalized spending behaviors in Q4, we have made the decision to adjust the outlook for our fiscal '25 beer business net sales growth to be 4% to 7% and operating income growth to be 9% to 12%, still yielding an operating margin of approximately 39%.

在此背景下，考慮到消費者是否會在第四季度恢復更正常的消費行為的短期不確定性，我們決定將25 財年啤酒業務淨銷售額增長前景調整為4% 至7%，並將營運收入成長率為 9% 至 12%，營業利潤率仍約為 39%。

Notwithstanding this prudent adjustment to our beer business guidance, our revised fiscal '25 comparable EPS range still yields double digit growth from the midpoint to the high end, which includes other adjustments to our outlook that Garth will cover in more detail shortly.

儘管對我們的啤酒業務指引進行了審慎調整，但我們修訂後的25 財年可比每股收益範圍仍然從中點到高端實現兩位數增長，其中包括對我們前景的其他調整，加斯將很快更詳細地介紹。

Second, despite softer consumer demand due to macroeconomic headwinds, our beer business continued to outperform the total beverage industry in dollar sales growth in Circana tracked channels over the 12 weeks ended December 1 and at a total company level, we once again achieved dollar sales growth outpacing the total CPG sector as we approach nearly 12 years as a CPG growth leader.

其次，儘管宏觀經濟逆風導致消費者需求疲軟，但我們的啤酒業務在截至12 月1 日的12 週內，在Circana 跟踪渠道的美元銷售額增長方面繼續跑贏整個飲料行業，並且在公司整體層面上，我們再次實現了美元銷售額增長我們作為 CPG 增長領先者已近 12 年，超過了整個 CPG 行業。

Third, we continue to effectively execute against our key initiatives in our beer business.

第三，我們繼續有效執行啤酒業務的關鍵舉措。

From a distribution perspective, we have now secured more than half of the incremental 500,000 points of distribution that we identified as the fiscal '24 to fiscal '28 target for our core brands during our Investor Day with a significant portion of those gains achieved in the current fiscal year.

從分銷角度來看，我們現在已經獲得了一半以上的增量500,000 個分銷點，這是我們在投資者日期間確定的24 財年至28 財年核心品牌目標的一半以上，其中很大一部分是在當前財政年度。

On the innovation side, the depletion growth contribution of our new liquids and pack formats released over the last couple of years is within the 20% to 40% range provided at Investor Day.

在創新方面，我們過去幾年發布的新液體和包裝形式對消耗成長的貢獻在投資者日提供的 20% 至 40% 範圍內。

That said, across our high-end light beer offerings which include Modelo Oro from an innovation perspective and our more tenured Corona Light and premier brands, we are facing headwinds from competitive pricing, particularly in large pack formats.

也就是說，在我們的高端淡啤酒產品中，包括從創新角度來看的 Modelo Oro 以及我們更長久的 Corona Light 和優質品牌，我們面臨著競爭性定價的阻力，特別是在大包裝規格方面。

And across our Chelada brands, we are facing consumer demand growth rate headwinds from the convenience channel where our Cheladas have outsized representation given the channel's core consumer base and the predominantly 24 ounce canned format that skews more towards C store retailers.

在我們的Chelada 品牌中，我們面臨來自便利通路的消費者需求成長率阻力，考慮到該通路的核心消費者基礎以及主要偏向於C 店零售商的24 盎司罐裝形式，我們的Chelada 擁有巨大的代表性。

To that end, we are actively working on levers to address the competitive dynamics in the high end light beer segment and continue to pursue distribution opportunities for Cheladas given our ongoing investments in broader marketing for the brands including English language linear TV advertising for the first time and recent extensions into the 12-ounce can 12-pack formats.

為此，我們正在積極尋找解決高端淡啤酒細分市場競爭動態的手段，並繼續為 Cheladas 尋求分銷機會，因為我們正在為品牌進行更廣泛的營銷投資，包括首次進行英語線性電視廣告以及最近擴展到12 盎司罐裝12 件裝的規格。

We also continue to drive significant demand in our portfolio from new legal drinking age consumers and are pleased to have had a higher proportion of our dollar sales this year coming from 21 to 24 year olds as they have made more trips to the store and spent more on each trip across our brands.

我們也繼續推動新的法定飲酒年齡消費者對我們的產品組合的巨大需求，並且很高興今年我們的美元銷售額中來自21 至24 歲的消費者的比例更高，因為他們去商店的次數更多，花的錢也更多。

In fact, the share of spend for this demographic within our dollar sales is nearly twice that of the beer category and that share has grown at more than twice the rate of the category in the high end segment relative to last year.

事實上，這一人群的支出在我們的美元銷售額中所佔的份額幾乎是啤酒類別的兩倍，而且與去年相比，這一份額的增長速度是高端市場類別的兩倍以上。

Last but not least, we also continue to consistently deliver against our capital allocation priorities.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們繼續始終如一地兌現我們的資本配置優先事項。

We maintained a 2.9 times net leverage ratio on a comparable basis in the third quarter, still slightly below our 3 times target.

第三季度，我們維持可比淨槓桿率2.9倍，仍略低於我們3倍的目標。

We further advanced our brewery capacity investments and returned nearly $220 million to shareholders through share repurchases and over $180 million in dividends in Q3.

我們進一步推進了啤酒廠產能投資，並透過股票回購向股東返還了近 2.2 億美元，並在第三季支付了超過 1.8 億美元的股息。

This brings our total year-to-date cash returns through share repurchases to approximately $670 million or to more than $1.2 billion including both repurchases and dividends.

這使得我們今年迄今透過股票回購獲得的現金回報總額達到約 6.7 億美元，包括回購和股息在內超過 12 億美元。

With that, let's turn more fully to our beer businesses performance.

有了這個，讓我們更全面地關注我們的啤酒業務表現。

During the third quarter of fiscal '25, our beer business grew depletions by 3.2% which again was an acceleration from last quarter despite continued consumer economic weakness.

在 25 財年第三季度，儘管消費者經濟持續疲軟，但我們的啤酒業務損耗成長了 3.2%，較上季度再次加速。

Shipments were up 1.6% which is noted in our prior earnings call trail depletion growth due to the impact of planned maintenance activities at our breweries during the quarter.

由於本季度我們啤酒廠計劃維護活動的影響，出貨量增長了 1.6%，這在我們之前的財報電話會議中顯示了消耗增長。

From a financial perspective, the business delivered net sales and operating income growth of approximately 3% and 2% respectively, which included disciplined incremental pricing taking in the fall, which is in line with the 1% to 2% pricing expectations we provided for fiscal '25, another $40 million in cost savings achieved in Q3 as the persistent focus on driving savings and efficiency from our end to end supply chain team continues to deliver significant benefits to the business and incremental marketing spend for the third quarter that we announced in early September.

從財務角度來看，該業務的淨銷售額和營業收入分別增長約 3% 和 2%，其中包括秋季嚴格的增量定價，這符合我們為財年提供的 1% 至 2% 的定價預期。 '25，第三季又實現了4000 萬美元的成本節省，因為我們的端到端供應鏈團隊持續致力於推動節省和效率，繼續為我們早些時候宣布的第三季度業務和增量營銷支出帶來顯著效益九月。

Now moving on to the performance of our largest brands.

現在我們來看看我們最大品牌的表現。

Modelo Especial grew depletions by over 3% and upheld its position as the top share gainer in US tracked channels.

Modelo Especial 的損耗成長了 3% 以上，並維持了其在美國追蹤管道中份額增長第一的地位。

We continued to see a long growth runway ahead for Modelo Especial.

我們繼續看到 Modelo Especial 未來還有很長的成長道路。

A significant opportunity remains across key metrics like awareness, distribution and household penetration relative to competitive brands.

相較於競爭品牌，認知度、分銷和家庭滲透率等關鍵指標仍存在重大機會。

While Corona Extra depletions declined approximately 1%, it continued to increase its dollar share as a top 10 gainer in the category.

雖然 Corona Extra 消耗量下降了約 1%，但其美元份額繼續增加，成為該類別中排名前 10 的成長者。

We remain positive about the outlook for Corona Extra's growth as it continues to be the most beloved beer brand in the US and has responded well to the incremental marketing spend deployed in Q3, particularly around the World Series.

我們對 Corona Extra 的成長前景保持樂觀，因為它仍然是美國最受歡迎的啤酒品牌，並且對第三季部署的增量行銷支出反應良好，尤其是在世界職棒大賽期間。

Pacifico delivered another quarter of very strong depletion growth of nearly 20% and remained the number four share gainer across the total beer category.

Pacifico 又一個季度實現了近 20% 的強勁消耗成長，並且仍然是整個啤酒類別中第四大份額成長者。

We continue to build on the momentum of this brand in its core Southern California market where it is already the number three beer brand but still growing double digits.

我們繼續鞏固該品牌在南加州核心市場的勢頭，該市場已成為第三大啤酒品牌，但仍以兩位數的速度成長。

At the same time, we are strategically expanding Pacifico into key metro markets across the country using the same thoughtful approach we have applied to Modelo Especial seeking to balance rising awareness and demand with the appropriate increases in distribution to support sustainable long term growth.

同時，我們正在策略性地將 Pacifico 擴展到全國主要地鐵市場，採用與 Modelo Especial 相同的深思熟慮的方法，尋求平衡日益增長的意識和需求與適當增加的分銷，以支持可持續的長期增長。

Our Modelo Chelada brands delivered an increase of approximately 4% in depletions and Limón y Sal remained a top 15 share gainer in the category.

我們的 Modelo Chelada 品牌的消耗量增加了約 4%，而 Limón y Sal 仍然是該類別中份額增長前 15 名的品牌。

As noted earlier, our Chelada brands are facing a challenging consumer backdrop in the convenience channel but we expect this to only be a near term headwind and for the brands to return to the growth profile or in line with expectations provided at Investor Day.

如前所述，我們的 Chelada 品牌在便利管道中面臨充滿挑戰的消費者背景，但我們預計這只是近期的逆風，品牌將恢復成長態勢或符合投資者日提供的預期。

All in, looking ahead, we aim to build on the sequential acceleration we have seen in volume growth across our core brands by continuing to make progress across the key volume growth drivers for the business, increased distribution, consumer led innovation and attracting new legal drinking age consumers across our brands as well as by deploying continued incremental marketing investments in Q4.

總而言之，展望未來，我們的目標是在我們核心品牌的銷售成長連續加速的基礎上，繼續在業務的關鍵銷售成長驅動因素、增加分銷、消費者主導的創新和吸引新的合法飲酒方面取得進展。透過在第四季度持續進行增量行銷投資，我們的品牌吸引了不同年齡層的消費者。

Moving on to wine and spirits.

繼續討論葡萄酒和烈酒。

As announced last month, our decision to divest SVEDKA builds on the actions we have taken over the past several years to align our wine and spirits portfolio with evolving consumer preferences and growing market sectors focusing on higher end brands.

正如上個月宣布的那樣，我們剝離SVEDKA 的決定建立在我們過去幾年所採取的行動的基礎上，這些行動旨在使我們的葡萄酒和烈酒產品組合適應不斷變化的消費者偏好和不斷增長的專注於高端品牌的市場領域。

To that end, we are pleased to announce this morning the closing of that transaction and we look forward to continuing to drive the growth of our higher end craft spirits portfolio which in the third quarter delivered depletion increase of approximately 9%.

為此，我們很高興地宣布今天上午完成了該交易，我們期待繼續推動我們的高端精釀烈酒產品組合的成長，該產品組合在第三季度實現了約 9% 的消耗成長。

Conversely, the impact of ongoing consumer demand headwinds in the wine category, particularly in the lower price segments and of retailer inventory destocking remain the main drivers of the decline in wine and spirit shipments of 16% year over year, which in turn was the primary driver of the respective 14% and 25% declines in net sales and operating income for that business.

相反，葡萄酒類別中持續的消費者需求逆風的影響，特別是在較低價格領域以及零售商庫存去庫存的影響，仍然是葡萄酒和烈酒出貨量同比下降16% 的主要驅動因素，這反過來又是葡萄酒和烈酒出貨量年減16% 的主要驅動因素。

Our fine wine portfolio however achieved depletion growth of 6% and our largest premium wine brands, Meiomi and Kim Crawford delivered depletion increases of over 7%.

然而，我們的精品葡萄酒組合實現了 6% 的消耗成長，而我們最大的優質葡萄酒品牌 Meiomi 和 Kim Crawford 的消耗成長超過 7%。

This is aligned with our focus on delivering growth and improving margins by driving our higher end brands and operating efficiencies while also seeking to deliver value from our mainstream brands.

這與我們透過推動高端品牌和營運效率來實現成長和提高利潤的重點相一致，同時也尋求從我們的主流品牌中創造價值。

Against that backdrop, the business remains focused on continuing to advance in several areas.

在此背景下，該業務仍專注於在多個領域繼續發展。

First, the tactical pricing and marketing support actions we are taking in selected markets to accelerate our top 10 largest brands.

首先，我們在選定的市場中採取的戰術定價和行銷支援行動，以加速我們十大品牌的發展。

Second, with better alignment with our distributor partners to help improve performance in our largest markets and channels.

其次，與我們的經銷商合作夥伴更好地協調，以幫助提高我們最大的市場和通路的績效。

And third, cost savings and operational efficiency initiatives to drive leverage to the bottom line.

第三，成本節約和營運效率舉措，以提高利潤率。

In light of continued consumer demand headwinds previously noted, we have updated our fiscal '25 outlook for wine and spirits business to net sales and operating income declines of 5% to 8% and 17% to 19%, respectively.

鑑於先前提到的持續的消費者需求逆風，我們更新了 25 財年葡萄酒和烈酒業務的展望，淨銷售額和營業收入分別下降 5% 至 8% 和 17% 至 19%。

In closing, we continue to manage a softer consumer backdrop due to macroeconomic headwinds and expect to deliver a very solid fiscal year underpinned by our continued progress against the key growth drivers of our beer business and our proactive actions to improve the performance of our wine and spirits business.

最後，我們繼續應對宏觀經濟逆風帶來的疲軟消費環境，並預計將實現非常穩健的財年，這得益於我們在啤酒業務關鍵增長動力方面的持續進展以及我們為提高葡萄酒和飲料業績而採取的積極行動。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Garth who will give you more details on our financial results and outlook.

接下來，我會將電話轉給加斯，他將為您提供有關我們財務業績和前景的更多詳細資訊。

Garth?

加斯？

Thank you, Bill and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，比爾，大家早安。

As usual, my discussion will focus primarily on comparable enterprise results accompanied by business segment details.

與往常一樣，我的討論將主要集中在可比較的企業績效以及業務部門的詳細資訊。

Let's get started with our enterprise results.

讓我們開始了解我們的企業成果。

For the third quarter of fiscal '25, enterprise net sales were relatively unchanged year over year as moderated growth from our beer business was offset by the decline in our wine and spirits business.

25財年第三季度，企業淨銷售額比去年同期相對不變，因為我們的啤酒業務的溫和成長被我們的葡萄酒和烈酒業務的下滑所抵消。

Enterprise operating income on a reported basis was in line with the prior year and on a comparable basis declined by 2%, reflecting growth from our beer business and favorability in corporate expense being more than offset by the decline in our wine and spirits business.

報告基礎上的企業營業收入與去年持平，可比基礎上下降了2%，反映出我們的啤酒業務的成長和企業費用的優惠被我們的葡萄酒和烈酒業務的下降所抵消。

Comparable EPS was $3.25 for the quarter and was relatively flat year over year as the decline in comparable operating income was offset by favorability and unconsolidated investments from the transition in our Canopy ownership to exchangeable shares and the impact of a more favorable comparable effective tax rate.

本季可比每股收益為3.25 美元，與去年同期相比相對持平，因為可比營業收入的下降被Canopy 所有權轉變為可交換股票帶來的優惠和未合併投資以及更優惠的可比有效稅率的影響所抵消。

Before I get into the segment details, I would like to provide an update on our enterprise guidance for fiscal '25.

在詳細介紹細分市場之前，我想先介紹一下 25 財年企業指南的最新情況。

We now expect enterprise net sales growth of 2% to 5%, comparable operating income growth of 6% to 9% and comparable EPS to be between $13.40 and $13.80. These new enterprise guidance targets reflect changes to the net sales and operating income growth targets for both business segments that Bill referenced earlier as well as a few additional updates that I will cover in more detail shortly.

我們目前預期企業淨銷售額將成長 2% 至 5%，可比營業收入成長 6% 至 9%，可比每股收益在 13.40 美元至 13.80 美元之間。這些新的企業指導目標反映了比爾之前提到的兩個業務部門的淨銷售額和營業收入成長目標的變化，以及我將很快詳細介紹的一些額外更新。

Now diving into the business segment details for the quarter, starting with our beer business.

現在深入了解本季度的業務部門詳細信息，從我們的啤酒業務開始。

Net sales grew by 3%, a $64 million increase driven by beer shipment volume growth of 1.6%, a price uplift of 2% or $39 million from targeted actions taken during the fall and a 30-basis point headwind from unfavorable mix as consumers continue to shift to value oriented larger pack size, particularly in cans.

淨銷售額成長3%，成長6,400 萬美元，原因是啤酒出貨量成長1.6%，秋季期間採取的有針對性的行動導致價格上漲2%，即3,900 萬美元，以及消費者繼續消費帶來的不利組合帶來的30 個基點逆風轉向以價值為導向的更大包裝尺寸，尤其是罐裝包裝。

Beer depletions grew 3.2%, an acceleration from Q2 what reflected the ongoing consumer dynamics that bill discussed.

啤酒消耗量成長了 3.2%，較第二季度有所加速，這反映了 Bill 所討論的持續的消費者動態。

Regarding selling days, they were flat in the third quarter and as a reminder, for the full year, there will be one less selling day which already transpired in Q2.

至於銷售天數，第三季的銷售天數持平，提醒大家，全年銷售天數將減少一個，這在第二季已經發生了。

Our on premise depletions grew nearly 5% and accounted for over 11% of our total volumes supported by Modelo Especial and Pacifico as the top two dollar share gainers in draft and Corona Extra maintaining its top spot in packaged on premise.

我們的本地消耗量增加了近 5%，占我們總銷量的 11% 以上，其中 Modelo Especial 和 Pacifico 是草案中美元份額漲幅最大的兩位，而 Corona Extra 則保持了本地包裝中的頭把交椅。

Off premise depletions grew nearly 3% and accounted for approximately 89% of our total volumes.

場外消耗量增加了近 3%，約佔總消耗量的 89%。

Within the off-premise channels, independent retailers not captured in Circana data achieved a lower growth rate mainly driven by convenience and liquor store channels in most of our top 10 markets, as well as independent brochures in our top state of California.

在場外管道中，Circana 數據中未包含的獨立零售商實現了較低的增長率，這主要是由我們大部分十大市場的便利商店和酒類商店管道以及我們頂級的加利福尼亞州的獨立宣傳冊推動的。

Across these key states, unemployment rates for both total and Hispanic consumers remain elevated relative to the national average, which we continue to believe is a fundamental near term driver for the relatively lower depletion growth rates we have seen in these markets over our last couple of fiscal quarters.

在這些關鍵州，整體失業率和西班牙裔消費者的失業率相對於全國平均水平仍然較高，我們仍然認為，這是我們在過去幾年中在這些市場看到的相對較低的消耗增長率的基本近期驅動因素。

However, as Bill noted, while it is uncertain whether consumers in these states and channels will revert to more normalized purchase behaviors in the near term, we do not anticipate these trends to be a structural headwind over the longer term.

然而，正如比爾指出的那樣，雖然不確定這些州和通路的消費者是否會在短期內恢復更正常的購買行為，但我們預計這些趨勢不會成為長期的結構性阻力。

On that note, shifting to our full year expectations for top line drivers.

在這一點上，我們轉向對營收驅動因素的全年預期。

While the third quarter beer shipments were outpaced by depletions due to normal seasonality and planned maintenance at our breweries, we continue to expect full year absolute shipment and depletion volumes to be closely aligned.

儘管由於正常的季節性和啤酒廠的計劃維護，第三季度的啤酒出貨量超過了消耗量，但我們仍然預計全年絕對出貨量和消耗量將密切相關。

And also from a full year perspective, as Bill noted, we now expect net sales for our beer business to be 4% to 7% inclusive of 1% to 2% pricing.

而且，從全年的角度來看，正如比爾指出的那樣，我們現在預計啤酒業務的淨銷售額將為 4% 至 7%，其中包括 1% 至 2% 的定價。

Moving to beer operating income and margins.

轉向啤酒營業收入和利潤率。

Operating income grew by 2% and we had a 60-basis point per year over year decline in operating margin to 37.9%.

營業收入成長了 2%，營業利潤率年減 60 個基點至 37.9%。

The increase in operating income was driven by higher gross profit, partially offset by increased marketing investments.

營業收入的成長是由毛利增加所推動的，但行銷投資的增加部分抵消了營業收入的成長。

Improvement in gross profit was largely a result of the previously mentioned net sales drivers and a $40 million benefit from ongoing cost savings and efficiency initiatives partially offset by an absolute COGS increase of nearly 1% excluding these savings.

毛利的提高主要歸功於前面提到的淨銷售驅動因素，以及持續的成本節約和效率舉措帶來的4,000 萬美元收益，但部分抵消了銷貨成本(COGS) 絕對值近1% 的增長（不包括這些節約）。

Marketing expense as a percent of net sales was just over 10% for the quarter driven by the incremental marketing actions that Bill discussed.

在 Bill 討論的增量行銷行動的推動下，本季行銷費用佔淨銷售額的百分比略高於 10%。

Our full year expectation for marketing expense as a percent of net sales remains approximately 8.5%.

我們預計全年行銷費用佔淨銷售額的百分比仍約為 8.5%。

Other SG&A expense was 5% as a percentage of net sales, in line with our unchanged full year expectation.

其他 SG&A 費用佔淨銷售額的 5%，與我們不變的全年預期一致。

From a fiscal '25 full year perspective, in terms of operating income, we now expect our beer business to grow between 9% to 12% while our operating margin expectation remains unchanged at approximately 39%.

從25財年全年的角度來看，就營業收入而言，我們現在預期我們的啤酒業務將成長9%至12%，而我們的營業利潤率預期維持在約39%不變。

Shifting to our wine and spirits business.

轉向我們的葡萄酒和烈酒業務。

Net sales declined just over 14% in the third quarter, largely driven by shipment volume decline of over 16%.

第三季淨銷售額下降略高於 14%，主要是因為出貨量下降超過 16%。

The volume decline was largely a result of the ongoing category headwinds in the wine category particularly in the US wholesale market from weaker consumer demand as well as continued inventory destocking by retailers.

銷售下降主要是由於消費者需求疲軟以及零售商持續去庫存，導致葡萄酒類別持續面臨不利因素，特別是在美國批發市場。

Despite these persistent challenges, we continue to expect improved organic shipment volume growth performance in our wine and spirits business in the fourth quarter as we anticipate more fully realizing the benefits of the pricing, marketing and distributor initiatives we launched at the beginning of this fiscal year while also benefiting from the historical seasonal trends of the business.

儘管面臨這些持續存在的挑戰，我們仍然預計第四季度我們的葡萄酒和烈酒業務的有機出貨量增長表現將有所改善，因為我們預計更充分地實現我們在本財年年初推出的定價、行銷和分銷計劃的好處同時也受益於業務的歷史季節性趨勢。

Additionally, retailer inventory destocking has broadly started to stabilize which we expect will result in additional tailwinds to support demand group moving forward.

此外，零售商庫存去庫存已普遍開始穩定，我們預計這將帶來額外的推動力，支持需求群體的前進。

As Bill noted, for fiscal '25, we now expect wine and shipments organic net sales to decline 5% to 8%, reflecting persistent volume headwinds in the wine category and excluding $23 million of net sales following the recently closed divestiture of SVEDKA.

正如比爾所指出的那樣，對於25 財年，我們現在預計葡萄酒和有機出貨量淨銷售額將下降5% 至8%，反映出葡萄酒類別持續的銷量逆風，並且不包括最近完成SVEDKA 剝離後的2300萬美元淨銷售額。

Operating income for the wine and spirits business declined by $32 million, resulting in an operating margin of 22.1%.

葡萄酒和烈酒業務的營業收入下降了 3,200 萬美元，營業利潤率為 22.1%。

This decline was primarily driven by decline in overall shipment volumes.

這一下降主要是由於總體出貨量下降所致。

Marketing expense for the wine and spirits segment as a percent of net sales was just over 11% and remain elevated above our medium term target as increased investments in our largest brands continue, the vast majority of which are for our higher end brands.

葡萄酒和烈酒細分市場的行銷費用佔淨銷售額的百分比略高於11%，隨著我們繼續增加對最大品牌的投資（其中絕大多數是針對我們的高端品牌），該費用仍高於我們的中期目標。

Other SG&A as a percentage of net sales was over 14%, consistent with our medium term targets.

其他 SG&A 佔淨銷售額的百分比超過 14%，與我們的中期目標一致。

In line with the adjustments to our net sales expectations, we are now expecting fiscal '25 operating income for our wine and spirits business to decline 17% to 19% excluding $10 million of gross profit less marketing of the SVEDKA brands that are no longer part of the business following their divestiture.

根據我們對淨銷售額預期的調整，我們目前預計 25 財年葡萄酒和烈酒業務的營業收入將下降 17% 至 19%，不包括 1000 萬美元的毛利潤減去不再屬於 SVEDKA 品牌的營銷費用剝離後的業務。

Shifting to the balance of the P&L.

轉向損益平衡。

Corporate expense for the third quarter was $63 million, a 3% decrease driven by lower compensation and benefits partially offset by higher consulting services and increased depreciation expense as a result of our corporate headquarters relocation.

第三季的公司費用為 6,300 萬美元，下降了 3%，原因是薪資和福利減少，但部分被諮詢服務增加以及公司總部搬遷導致折舊費用增加所抵消。

Following this decrease, we have updated our fiscal '25 corporate expense outlook to be $250 million.

繼這項下降之後，我們將 25 財年的企業支出預期更新為 2.5 億美元。

Interest expense remained flat year over year and for the quarter was $104 million.

本季利息支出為 1.04 億美元，較去年同期持平。

For the full year, given continued favorability from lower average borrowings and adjustments related to capitalized interest, we now expect our fiscal '25 interest expense to be $410 million.

就全年而言，鑑於較低的平均借款和與資本化利息相關的調整的持續有利，我們現在預計 25 財年的利息支出將為 4.1 億美元。

Comparable effective tax rate was 16.3% compared to 18% for the corresponding quarter last year and we continue to expect our full year comparable tax rate to be approximately 18.5%.

可比有效稅率為 16.3%，而去年同期為 18%，我們繼續預計全年可比稅率約為 18.5%。

Wrapping up with free cash flow, which we find is net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures.

總結一下自由現金流，我們發現它是經營活動提供的淨現金減去資本支出。

We generated year to date free cash flow of $1.6 billion for fiscal '25, a 13% year over year increase.

2025 財年迄今為止，我們產生了 16 億美元的自由現金流，年增 13%。

This strong cash flow generation has enabled us to reach and maintain a net leverage ratio below our stated target, return over $1.2 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases through November of 2024 and continue to advance our brewery investments in a disciplined and agile manner.

強勁的現金流生成使我們能夠達到並維持低於既定目標的淨槓桿率，到2024 年11 月為止透過股利和股票回購向股東返還超過12 億美元，並繼續以嚴謹、靈活的方式推進我們的啤酒廠投資。

As we look to the remainder of fiscal '25, we now expect to deliver annual operating cash flow of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion and free cash flow of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, both above our initial targets and continue to deploy that cash with a balanced and thoughtful approach to capital allocation.

展望 25 財年的剩餘時間，我們現在預計將實現年度營運現金流 29 億至 31 億美元，自由現金流 16 億至 18 億美元，均高於我們的初始目標，並繼續以平衡和深思熟慮的資本配置方法。

With regards to our brewery expansions and given our agile modular approach to these projects, we have shifted the completion and planned startup of our latest addition at our existing breweries in Mexico from the end of fiscal '25 to fiscal '26.

關於我們的啤酒廠擴建，並考慮到我們對這些項目採取的敏捷模組化方法，我們已將墨西哥現有啤酒廠最新擴建項目的完成和計劃啟動時間從 25 財年末推遲到 26 財年末。

The timing of our new brewery in Veracruz remains on track with the completion of the initial phase of that facility anticipated by late fiscal '26 or early fiscal '27.

我們在韋拉克魯斯州的新啤酒廠的建設時間仍按計劃進行，預計該設施的初始階段將在 26 財年末或 27 財年年初完成。

While the timing adjustment of the existing brewery's expansion has shifted some of our beer CapEx we previously anticipated for fiscal '25 into fiscal '26, we continue to expect to deploy approximately $3 billion in CapEx between fiscal '25 and fiscal '28.

雖然現有啤酒廠擴張的時間調整已將我們先前預期的25 財年的部分啤酒資本支出轉移到26 財年，但我們仍預計在25 財年和28 財年之間部署約30 億美元的資本支出。

In closing, we made strong progress against our strategic initiatives this quarter and maintain a solid growth trajectory for the enterprise.

最後，我們本季的策略性舉措取得了強勁進展，並維持了企業穩健的成長軌跡。

We continue to invest behind the momentum of our brands, drive operational efficiencies, maintain cost discipline and provide strong cash generation while still executing against our capital allocation priorities as we have done for the last several years.

我們繼續投資支持我們品牌的發展勢頭，提高營運效率，維持成本控制並提供強勁的現金生成，同時仍像過去幾年一樣執行我們的資本配置優先事項。

We will continue to closely monitor the subdued spend and value seeking trends we have seen develop across our consumer base and the economic drivers influencing that behavior as well as other possible macro shifts, particularly any changes arising from potential tariff policies.

我們將繼續密切關注我們在消費者群體中看到的支出疲軟和價值追求趨勢以及影響該行為的經濟驅動因素以及其他可能的宏觀變化，特別是潛在關稅政策引起的任何變化。

As always, we will seek to balance our consumer obsession and our value creation commitment to our stakeholders as we focus on executing against our strategy and stated priorities.

一如既往，當我們專注於執行我們的策略和既定優先事項時，我們將尋求平衡我們對消費者的痴迷和我們對利害關係人的價值創造承諾。

Thank you all for your continued support as we approach the close of fiscal '25.

在 25 財年即將結束之際，感謝大家的持續支持。

With that, Bill and I will now be happy to take your questions.

至此，比爾和我現在很樂意回答你們的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

達拉莫森尼安，摩根士丹利。

So Bill, just wanted to take a bit of a step back on the drivers behind the softness you're seeing on the beer depletion front.

因此，比爾只是想對啤酒枯竭前線疲軟背後的驅動因素退後一步。

If you had to separate that out between the short term consumer weakness you focused on with the subdued spend and the value seeking behavior that you mentioned on the call versus some of the longer term concerns in terms of health and wellness, whether GOP or demographics, maturation of the beer brands in your portfolio, cannabis, yeah, et cetera, what are your sort of thoughts and if you're seeing any pressure from some of those more enduring longer term points versus the short term dynamics that you mentioned?

如果你必須將你關注的消費疲軟和價值追求行為與你在電話中提到的短期消費者疲軟與健康和保健方面的一些長期擔憂（無論是共和黨還是人口統計）區分開來，你的投資組合中啤酒品牌的成熟度，大麻，是的，等等，您有什麼想法？ 您是否看到一些更持久的長期點與您提到的短期動態相比帶來的任何壓力？

And just putting it all together, how might that impact the way you think about long term beer revenue growth guidance?

把所有這些放在一起，這會如何影響您對長期啤酒收入成長指引的看法？

Sure.

當然。

Our view of this is that the length of the near-term moves has been a little longer than what we had anticipated, but we still don't see it as anything structural.

我們對此的看法是，近期走勢的持續時間比我們預期的要長一些，但我們仍然不認為這是任何結構性的。

We don't see it as long-term issues attached to this business.

我們不認為這是該業務的長期問題。

We've seen higher uptick in unemployment, 31 -- even though the overall unemployment rate was pretty consistent, 31 states were -- actually saw an increase in unemployment.

我們看到失業率上升，31——儘管整體失業率相當穩定，31 個州——實際上失業率有所上升。

And that always affects, you may have also seen, there was an interesting Wall Street Journal article a week or so ago that showed the breakout of consumers spending for those making $50,000 a year and less and that's a portion of our business.

這總是會影響到，您可能也看到了，大約一周前《華爾街日報》發表了一篇有趣的文章，其中顯示了年收入50,000 美元及以下的消費者支出的突破，而這正是我們業務的一部分。

The key thing that I think is important as you look at this is one of the things that I noted in my remarks, which is that alcohol's percent of the consumer basket remains consistent.

當你看到這一點時，我認為最重要的是我在演講中指出的事情之一，即酒精在消費者籃子中所佔的百分比保持一致。

The overall basket is down but our percentage of that basket remains the same and I think that's an important thing.

整體籃子下降了，但我們在籃子中所佔的百分比保持不變，我認為這是一件重要的事情。

We would expect it to come out of this trough and we certainly hope that that's going to happen in the nearer term.

我們預計它會走出這個低谷，我們當然希望這會在近期發生。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

考米爾·加吉拉瓦拉，傑弗里斯。

I think maybe just to talk a bit on capital allocation, how do you maybe think about the right amount of CapEx that you're deploying into new capacity given that we've got this slowdown and if it's macro, we don't really know how long it'll be?

我想也許只是談談資本配置，考慮到我們已經經歷了經濟放緩，並且如果是宏觀的，我們真的不知道，您如何考慮部署到新產能中的資本支出的正確金額需要多長時間？

Maybe delaying Veracruz or pushing out some of this CapEx.

也許會推遲韋拉克魯斯或推遲部分資本支出。

And then also when you think about the returns on those investments and maybe the risk to the returns of those investments, how do you think about that capital deployment versus just buying back a much larger amount of shares?

然後，當您考慮這些投資的回報以及這些投資回報的風險時，您如何看待資本部署與僅僅回購大量股票？

Yeah.

是的。

I think a couple of things.

我認為有幾件事。

I'll start and see if Garth wants to add anything into that.

我將開始看看加思是否想在其中添加任何內容。

One of the things we've said consistently is that all of our expansions at this point are modular which gives us the opportunity to advance them or delay them depending on any particular effects that we see in the marketplace.

我們一直說的一件事是，我們目前的所有擴展都是模組化的，這使我們有機會根據我們在市場上看到的任何特定效果來推進或延遲它們。

I think Garth's been really clear that our capital allocation priorities have been very consistently driven over the last several years.

我認為加思非常清楚，我們的資本配置優先事項在過去幾年中一直受到一致推動。

You've noted that we continued to buy a significant amount of shares in this quarter, $220 million.

您已經注意到，我們在本季繼續購買了大量股票，價值 2.2 億美元。

We still have $1.9 billion in authorization to buy back shares from our Board of Directors.

我們仍有 19 億美元的授權從董事會回購股票。

So I think it's pretty clear what our focus of attention is, and you would expect that that's going to continue.

所以我認為我們的焦點非常清楚，你會期望這種情況會持續下去。

Garth, anything you want to add to that?

Garth，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No.

不。

I mean I just -- it's just a couple of minor things that I guess come up.

我的意思是，我只是——我想這只是一些小事。

I mean and it's Bill safe stated, our approach has been and continues to be very agile, very modular.

我的意思是，比爾安全地說，我們的方法一直並將繼續非常敏捷、非常模組化。

I mean in my remarks, we outlined the fact that we're pushing off some of the bringing online some capacity from this year into next year.

我的意思是，在我的演講中，我們概述了這樣一個事實，即我們正在將一些產能的上線從今年推遲到明年。

So again, that's just an example of the things that we have done and what we will continue to do.

再說一次，這只是我們已經做過的事情和我們將繼續做的事情的一個例子。

As Bill noted, we still have the $1.9 billion worth of authorization under our existing share repurchase program.

正如 Bill 所指出的那樣，我們現有的股票回購計畫仍然擁有價值 19 億美元的授權。

And one of the things we've talked about in the past is this cash flow inflection that we have here over the next couple of years and we're excited to what that means.

我們過去討論過的事情之一就是未來幾年我們在這裡的現金流拐點，我們對這意味著什麼感到興奮。

And we will use a very disciplined approach as we think about deploying that next dollar and where that goes.

當我們考慮如何部署下一美元以及它的去向時，我們將使用非常嚴格的方法。

I think one of the things that's worth pointing out, as Bill stated, we've been committed to our capital allocation priorities.

正如比爾所說，我認為值得指出的一件事是，我們一直致力於我們的資本配置優先事項。

We're nearing the end of our large commitments as it relates to brewery expansion in Mexico.

我們即將結束與墨西哥啤酒廠擴張有關的重大承諾。

As we stated in our prepared remarks, we've now been two quarters at or below our targeted leverage ratio and we've deemphasized M&A.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所述，我們已經有兩個季度處於或低於目標槓桿率，我們已經不再強調併購。

And so as we look forward, I would say that the approach to capital deployment and with a bias towards returning capital to shareholders is likely going to continue.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我想說，資本配置方法和偏向向股東返還資本的方法可能會持續下去。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛。

I actually had I guess a couple of questions on your updated guidance.

我實際上對您更新的指導有一些疑問。

First, while you lowered your full year beer net sales growth guidance, which makes sense, you actually widened the range and there are only two months left in the year and I certainly understand there's a lot of uncertainty but just curious why you might not have better visibility on your shipments, especially, thinking about the upcoming spring reset.

首先，雖然你降低了全年啤酒淨銷售成長指導，這是有道理的，但你實際上擴大了範圍，而且今年只剩下兩個月了，我當然知道存在很多不確定性，但只是好奇為什麼你可能沒有更好地了解您的發貨情況，尤其是考慮到即將到來的春季重置。

And then second, what will be the key drivers that will put you at the bottom end of this range maybe versus the top end?

其次，什麼是關鍵驅動因素，使您處於該範圍的最低端，而不是最高端？

I guess, Bill, based on all your comments, I assume if unemployment for your core demographic weakens, this will certainly put you at the bottom end, but have you factored in the impact from the awful California players?

我想，比爾，根據你所有的評論，我認為如果你的核心人口失業率下降，這肯定會讓你處於底部，但你是否考慮到了糟糕的加州球員的影響？

Sure.

當然。

What -- as you would expect, when we decided on this particular range, this range reflects risks that we see that could potentially occur, that would include things like unemployment, potential tariffs, things of that nature and the opportunity is just the opposite of that.

正如你所期望的，當我們決定這個特定範圍時，這個範圍反映了我們認為可能發生的風險，其中包括失業、潛在關稅等類似性質的事情，而機會恰恰相反那。

The upper end reflects if things improve and we start to see some of these macroeconomic headwinds go the other direction, then you could see improvement in a wider range.

上限反映瞭如果情況有所改善，並且我們開始看到一些宏觀經濟逆風朝另一個方向發展，那麼您可能會看到更廣泛範圍內的改善。

It's -- I think the best way to think about it is there's been a lot of volatility, it's been very volatile compared to historical trends and we thought it was prudent given everything that we can see at this point in time to broaden the range a bit.

It's -- I think the best way to think about it is there's been a lot of volatility, it's been very volatile compared to historical trends and we thought it was prudent given everything that we can see at this point in time to broaden the range a位元.

Relative to the fires, we -- it would be very fair to say that our thoughts are with everyone affected by these fires in Los Angeles.

相對於火災，我們——公平地說，我們的想法與洛杉磯受這些火災影響的每個人同在。

Our focus remains on ensuring the safety of our people.

我們的重點仍然是確保人民的安全。

And beyond that, we're in the process of making donations to support both the victims and the efforts of those on the ground.

除此之外，我們正在捐款以支持受害者和當地人們的努力。

Certainly, the end of that is not clear at this point, but certainly that had already begun, and I think our -- you should view that our guidance reflects that particular unfortunate situation as well.

當然，目前還不清楚這一點的結束，但肯定已經開始了，我認為我們的——你們應該認為我們的指導也反映了這種特殊的不幸情況。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

So just shifting to wine and spirits.

所以只是轉向葡萄酒和烈酒。

I mean I think it's fair to say we're kind of in a negative -- this ongoing negative revision cycle for that business.

我的意思是，我認為可以公平地說，我們處於負面的狀態——該業務正在進行的負面修正週期。

So I just -- you called out some of the positive, maybe you could share a little bit more on like what hasn't gone according to plan, what in the turnaround plan might need tweaks.

所以我只是——你提到了一些積極的方面，也許你可以分享更多一些，例如哪些事情沒有按計劃進行，哪些事情在周轉計劃中可能需要調整。

Because the hole kind of keeps getting deeper and it doesn't seem like there's many signs, at least from the external standpoint of stabilization.

因為這個洞越來越深，而且似乎沒有太多跡象，至少從外部穩定的角度來看是如此。

Sure.

當然。

Well, as we said at the beginning of the year, it was going to take us 9 months to 12 months and that's about what we're heading into at this point.

嗯，正如我們在年初所說的那樣，我們需要 9 個月到 12 個月的時間，這就是我們目前要做的事情。

I think you saw some firm shoots in Q3.

我認為你在第三季看到了一些堅定的突破。

Meiomi and Kim Crawford were up 7%.

Meiomi 和 Kim Crawford 股價上漲 7%。

Our craft and depletions, our craft spirits portfolio was up 9%.

我們的精釀和消耗品、精釀烈酒投資組合成長了 9%。

We continue to be hit very hard at the lower end of the business.

我們的低端業務繼續受到嚴重打擊。

The lower end of the business is not healthy.

低端業務並不健康。

But I think the move that we made relative to SVEDKA is an important example of where we continue to be focusing our business toward the higher end where we believe there's better growth potential and better margin and profit potential than the lower end of the business.

但我認為我們相對於 SVEDKA 採取的舉措是一個重要的例子，說明我們繼續將業務重點轉向高端業務，我們相信高端業務比低端業務有更好的成長潛力、更好的利潤率和利潤潛力。

That process is continuing and we remain optimistic that we're going to continue to see some of these critical brands, those top 10 brands that we're focusing our attention on continue to see improvement as you saw with Meiomi and Kim Crawford as an example.

這個過程仍在繼續，我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們將繼續看到其中一些關鍵品牌，即我們關注的十大品牌繼續取得進步，正如您以 Meiomi 和 Kim Crawford 為例所看到的那樣。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

Happy New Year to both Bill and Garth.

祝比爾和加斯新年快樂。

I guess my question is more about just the beer category in general.

我想我的問題更多的是關於啤酒的總體類別。

And I think if I'm looking at the numbers right, we're going to ship in calendar '24 close to what we shipped in 1990, right?

我認為，如果我看的數字正確的話，我們將在 24 日曆年發貨，接近 1990 年發貨，對嗎？

Like the category is definitely sick.

喜歡這個類別肯定是有病的。

So I guess two questions related to that are three.

所以我想與此相關的兩個問題是三個。

One, do you agree with that?

一、你同意嗎？

Two, why -- what will turn it?

第二，為什麼──什麼會改變它？

Seltzer seem to give it a little bit of a pop and that's faded.

蘇打水似乎給它帶來了一點流行感，但這種感覺已經褪色了。

Just so what do you think from a category perspective is needed to turn that?

那麼，您認為從品類角度來看，需要什麼才能扭轉這一局面？

And then the third is just, can you remind us what level of volume growth in the US beer category in total underpins your medium-term sales targets?

第三個問題是，您能否提醒我們，美國啤酒類別的總銷售成長水準支撐著您的中期銷售目標？

Sure.

當然。

So obviously, the beer category hasn't been particularly healthy as you point out.

顯然，正如您所指出的那樣，啤酒類別並不是特別健康。

I think the differentiating points that need to be reflected relative to our business is that we have consistently outperformed that category.

我認為與我們的業務相關的差異化點是我們一直優於該類別。

Modelo, we continue to believe has a lot of runway for growth.

我們仍然相信 Modelo 有很大的成長空間。

It's awareness, household penetration and so on.

它是意識、家庭滲透率等等。

Remain tremendous opportunities.

仍然存在巨大的機會。

And as you saw from the distribution perspective, we're already halfway plus to the distribution growth that we had presented at Investor Day.

正如您從分銷角度看到的那樣，我們已經比投資者日上展示的分銷增長了一半。

So I think all that's positive.

所以我認為這一切都是正面的。

You then add on the growth potential that you see on brands like Pacifico and Victoria, frankly.

坦白說，然後您可以添加您在 Pacifico 和 Victoria 等品牌上看到的成長潛力。

They both have seen strong double digit growth profiles for those businesses.

他們都看到了這些業務強勁的兩位數成長。

The demographic profile of those business is slightly different.

這些企業的人口統計數據略有不同。

So those present some good opportunities.

所以這些提供了一些很好的機會。

And then you look at things like Corona Sunbrew or Corona non-alcoholic, which again put us into slightly different opportunities and situations than what we have been in before.

然後你看看 Corona Sunbrew 或 Corona 無酒精飲料等產品，它們再次讓我們面臨與以前略有不同的機會和情況。

Keeping in mind, when you sum all that up, Bryan, we continue to grow ahead of CPG and have for over a decade.

請記住，布萊恩，當您總結所有這些時，我們繼續領先 CPG，並且已經持續了十多年。

So certainly, while there have been some challenges in the overall category, we have consistently outperformed not only the category but the CPG sector for literally over a decade and we continue to expect to be able to do so going forward.

當然，儘管整個類別存在一些挑戰，但十多年來，我們不僅持續跑贏該類別，而且跑贏消費品行業，並且我們繼續期望未來能夠做到這一點。

Rob Ottenstein, Evercore.

羅布·奧滕斯坦，Evercore。

Just two short follow ups.

只有兩個簡短的後續行動。

One, can you just give us a sense of what -- and this is both on the beer side, what your internal inventories are for beer and your distributors maybe benchmarking versus kind of normal levels of this time of year?

第一，您能否讓我們了解一下——這既是在啤酒方面，也是在啤酒方面，您的啤酒內部庫存是多少，您的經銷商可能會與每年這個時候的正常水平進行基準比較？

And then the second, what are your expectations in calendar 2025 for shelf space gains for the year compared to prior years?

第二個問題，與往年相比，您對 2025 年貨架空間成長的預期是多少？

And any kind of percentage would be great.

任何百分比都會很棒。

Sure.

當然。

Inventories are fairly consistent with what we've had historically.

庫存與我們歷史上的庫存相當一致。

We -- just in case there are any order disruptions, as you would expect, we have a bit more on this side of the border than we have had historically.

正如您所料，為了以防萬一出現任何訂單中斷，我們在邊境這邊的訂單比歷史上多一些。

And we'll probably continue to do so until we understand exactly how that all lands, but that's just good business.

我們可能會繼續這樣做，直到我們確切地了解這一切是如何實現的，但這只是一樁好生意。

Really, it has no impact on the ongoing inventory levels.

事實上，它對當前的庫存水準沒有影響。

We would expect given the outsized double-digit gains that we had in shelf positions this past calendar year that this year would -- coming would probably revert to a more normal year where we have consistently outperformed the gain and gained shelf presence primarily because we've outperformed the category both at the high end and then at the overall beer category collectively.

鑑於我們在上個日曆年的貨架位置上取得了兩位數的巨大增長，我們預計今年可能會恢復到更正常的一年，我們一直表現出色並獲得貨架存在，主要是因為我們“無論是在高端啤酒類別還是在整個啤酒類別中，我們的表現都優於這個類別。

So while we haven't put an exact percentage on that this point, Robert, we would expect to continue to gain shelf because frankly, we've earned it.

因此，雖然我們還沒有給出確切的百分比，羅伯特，但我們預計會繼續獲得貨架，因為坦白說，我們已經贏得了它。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

安德里亞·特謝拉，摩根大通。

I have a follow up question on the volume and also the real question is more how to think about the tariff risk.

我有一個關於數量的後續問題，真正的問題更多是如何考慮關稅風險。

I understand, obviously, you're lobbying with some of the raw materials that you buy from the farmers in the US but based on your long-term algorithm, if a tariff were to be implemented, would you prioritize volumes?

我明白，顯然，您正在遊說從美國農民那裡購買的一些原材料，但根據您的長期演算法，如果您要實施關稅，您會優先考慮數量嗎？

In other words, take less pricing given the elasticity or would you say that 39% to 40% is our operating margin goal and that's going to be a hit for the beginning, but you want to stand behind it?

換句話說，考慮到彈性，採取更少的定價，或者你會說 39% 到 40% 是我們的營業利潤率目標，這在一開始會很受歡迎，但你想支持它嗎？

And then from a follow up perspective, it was just like, the range for volumes, I know Bonnie tried to ask that question, the range for volumes were very wide given that you only have about 45 days left.

然後從後續的角度來看，就像成交量的範圍，我知道邦妮試圖問這個問題，考慮到只剩下大約 45 天，成交量的範圍非常寬。

It was like between minus [5%] and plus [9%] if my maths is correct.

如果我的數學正確的話，它就像在負 [5%] 和正 [9%] 之間。

So I understand the puts and takes and the lack of visibility but really what would take you to the minus [5%] given that you're still seeing volume growth from what I understand in the tracked channel?

因此，我理解看跌期權和看跌期權以及缺乏可見性，但考慮到您仍然看到我在跟踪通道中所理解的成交量增長，那麼實際上什麼會導致負 [5%]？

Sure.

當然。

Well, let's start with a minor correction on the last point which is beer volume growth projection was 4% to 7%.

好吧，我們首先對最後一點進行小幅修正，即啤酒銷量成長預測為 4% 至 7%。

It was not negative, it's 4% to 7% plus.

這不是負數，而是 4% 到 7% 以上。

Just so we're clear on that particular point.

這樣我們就清楚了這一點。

Relative to the tariffs scenario

相對於關稅情景

--

--

But for the quarter.

但就本季而言。

Sorry, it's just for the quarter I believe it's a really wide range for the quarter itself for the fourth quarter.

抱歉，這只是本季的情況，我相信第四季的季度範圍非常廣泛。

So continuing to answer your question, relative to the tariff scenario, we have a number of what ifs as you would expect.

因此，繼續回答你的問題，相對於關稅場景，我們有很多假設，正如你所期望的那樣。

And it's really too early to hypothesize about what might or might not happen.

現在猜測可能發生或不會發生的事情還為時過早。

As you would expect, we have a lot of permutations that we have considered and certainly we'll adjust our approach depending on what the terms -- what plays out as we go forward.

正如您所期望的，我們已經考慮了很多排列，當然我們會根據條款調整我們的方法——隨著我們的前進，會發生什麼。

And Andrea, I'll just follow up quickly on your question regarding Q4, right?

Andrea，我會快速跟進您對第四季的問題，對嗎？

So as Bill alluded to in his prior answer to Bonnie's question is we acknowledge that the range right now is a little bit wider than we typically are giving where we are in the calendar year but this really is to acknowledge that there's potential for continued risk on the lower end given macroeconomic conditions and whether or not they improve, stay where they are or get worse.

因此，正如比爾在之前回答邦妮問題時提到的那樣，我們承認現在的範圍比我們通常在日曆年給出的範圍要寬一些，但這確實是承認存在持續風險的可能性。經濟狀況的下限，以及它們是否改善、維持現狀或變得更糟。

But also opportunity on the upper end as well as we think about those macroeconomic risks potentially.

但也有高端機會以及我們對潛在宏觀經濟風險的思考。

Obviously, as we've been talking about in this call, we're most concerned around unemployment, but there are others as well.

顯然，正如我們在這次電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們最擔心的是失業問題，但也有其他問題。

Fortunately, the print today from on unemployment seem positive.

幸運的是，今天有關失業的消息似乎是正面的。

So hopefully, that continues and is a tailwind for us as we go through Q4.

因此，希望這種情況能夠持續下去，並在我們進入第四季時成為我們的順風車。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

菲利波·法洛尼，花旗銀行。

I wanted to ask on beer margins.

我想問一下啤酒利潤。

Obviously, this quarter they were down year over year, but given the increase in advertising that you called out.

顯然，本季的銷售額同比下降，但考慮到您所說的廣告增加。

As you look a little bit ahead in terms of the beer margin opportunity, can you talk a little bit about the opportunities from pricing, commodities and also some of the effects consideration given the pace of weakness in recent months?

當您展望啤酒利潤機會的前景時，您能否談談定價、大宗商品的機會以及考慮到近幾個月的疲軟步伐的一些影響因素？

Yeah.

是的。

I mean as it relates to beer margins, look, I mean the way we feel about beer margins really hasn't changed over the last several years.

我的意思是，因為它與啤酒利潤有關，看，我的意思是我們對啤酒利潤的看法在過去幾年裡確實沒有改變。

We think that the right way to think about our beer margin profile is in that 39% to 40% range.

我們認為，考慮啤酒利潤率的正確方法是在 39% 到 40% 的範圍內。

In any given year, we're going to have the tailwinds of incremental volume more and more throughput through our footprint.

在任何一年中，我們都將透過我們的足跡獲得越來越多的吞吐量增量。

Obviously, very aggressive cost savings initiatives that we have every year as well as the pricing actions we take.

顯然，我們每年都會採取非常積極的成本節約措施以及我們採取的定價行動。

Offsetting those in any given year will be normal inflationary impacts.

在任何特定年份抵消這些影響都將是正常的通貨膨脹影響。

Obviously, as we build out our portfolio and our production footprint, we have more depreciation that comes on.

顯然，當我們擴大投資組合和生產足跡時，我們會出現更多的折舊。

And then obviously, there can be drags as it relates to fixed overhead absorption as you're growing into that capacity.

顯然，當你成長到這種能力時，可能會出現阻力，因為它與固定開銷吸收有關。

So all up all in, we continue to think that 39% to 40% is the right range for our beer margin, acknowledging that in any given year, we might have more headwinds and we could fall below 39% like we did in '23 and '24 where we have outsized inflation, but there could be years where we have more tailwinds like we did in '22 and we can deliver above 40%.

因此，總而言之，我們仍然認為 39% 至 40% 是我們啤酒利潤率的正確範圍，並承認在任何特定年份，我們可能會遇到更多阻力，我們可能會像 23 年那樣跌至 39% 以下24年我們的通貨膨脹率很高，但未來幾年我們可能會像22 年一樣有更多的順風車，我們可以實現40% 以上的目標。

So those are the puts and takes and that's why we think 39% to 40% is the right range.

這些就是看跌期權和看跌期權，這就是為什麼我們認為 39% 到 40% 是正確的範圍。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科，TD·考恩。

I think you said that price and competitiveness has started to dial up on the light beer segment.

我想你說過淡啤酒領域的價格和競爭力已經開始上升。

And I want to know like I didn't hear if you have a response to that, do you intend to promote more aggressively?

我想知道，我沒有聽到你對此有何回應，你打算更積極地推廣嗎？

And just in general, if the volumes are weak overall in the industry, can the industry still get pricing like it normally does or is there a risk that some of it needs to be discounted back more than normal?

總的來說，如果該行業整體銷量疲軟，該行業是否仍能像平常那樣獲得定價，或者是否存在其中一些需要比正常情況更多折扣的風險？

We're assessing that the question of the light beer sector as we speak as you would expect. 1% to 2% is as you know we do it on a by SKU, by market basis.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們正在評估淡啤酒行業的問題。如您所知，1% 到 2% 是按 SKU、按市場進行的。

So therefore, I think the answer remains yes, those opportunities continue to present themselves, but they do them selectively.

因此，我認為答案仍然是肯定的，這些機會繼續出現，但他們是有選擇的。

It's not a broad market across the Board change.

這並不是一個廣泛的市場全面變化。

It's looking specifically at markets, looking at velocities and growth profiles in particular markets and understand where those opportunities present themselves.

它專門關注市場，關注特定市場的速度和成長概況，並了解這些機會在哪裡出現。

It also applies to pack sizes.

它也適用於包裝尺寸。

You might be able to do something in a single serves versus larger pack sizes or vice versa.

與較大的包裝尺寸相比，您可能能夠在單份中完成某些操作，反之亦然。

So we believe 1% to 2% which we've done very consistently over time remains the right answer.

因此，我們相信 1% 到 2% 仍然是正確的答案，我們一直以來都在這樣做。

Given big swings is a negative and that's what we've tried to avoid.

鑑於大幅波動是負面的，這正是我們試圖避免的。

In fact, as you know, we avoided that during COVID.

事實上，如您所知，我們在新冠疫情期間避免了這種情況。

We were much more consistent on our 1% to 2% algorithm, and we think that's more consumer friendly than the opposite.

我們在 1% 到 2% 的演算法上更加一致，我們認為這比相反的演算法對消費者更友善。

Peter Grom, UBS.

彼得‧格羅姆，瑞銀集團。

I was just hoping to ask on beer guidance for the fourth quarter, but just maybe a couple of modeling considerations.

我只是希望詢問第四季度的啤酒指導，但也許只是一些建模考慮因素。

Maybe just to start, shipments versus depletions.

也許只是開始，出貨量與消耗量。

Garth, I think you mentioned that you still expect them to be closely aligned on a full year basis.

加斯，我想你提到你仍然希望它們在全年的基礎上保持緊密一致。

So I just want to make sure I heard that right which would mean you would expect shipments to be a bit below depletions in the fourth quarter.

因此，我只是想確保我沒聽錯，這意味著您預計第四季度的出貨量將略低於消耗量。

And then just relative to the tracked data, you kind of saw a return to the low single digit gap this quarter.

然後，相對於追蹤數據，您可以看到本季度又回到了較低的個位數差距。

You touched on the weakness in the non-tracked channels that might be driving that.

您談到了可能導致這一問題的非追蹤管道的弱點。

So is this gap something we should expect as we move forward here?

那麼，當我們向前邁進時，這種差距是我們應該預料到的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So just on shipments and depletions.

所以只是關於出貨量和消耗量。

On a full year basis, we expect shipments and depletions to be largely aligned.

從全年來看，我們預計出貨量和消耗量將基本保持一致。

That -- you heard that correctly.

那——你沒聽錯。

As it relates to the gap between Circana and our depletions, look, I'll tell you what we say sort of every time we have this call, which is, we don't use the Circana data to track our depletions.

因為它涉及 Circana 和我們的消耗之間的差距，聽著，我會告訴你我們每次接到這個電話時都會說的話，那就是，我們不使用 Circana 數據來追蹤我們的消耗。

Obviously, we know that that's the data point that you have to use, but there are certainly limitations to Circana.

顯然，我們知道這是您必須使用的數據點，但 Circana 肯定有其限制。

Certainly, it only captures about 50% of our sales activity.

當然，它只占我們銷售活動的 50% 左右。

And so that's something that you have to take into account.

所以這是你必須考慮的事情。

And there's been a lot of volatility obviously over the course of the last several years regarding that gap and how wide it has gotten.

在過去幾年中，這一差距及其擴大程度顯然存在很大的波動。

And for those questions as to what drives that gap, those are best suited for Circana and not necessarily answered by us.

對於那些造成這種差距的問題，這些問題最適合 Circana，但我們不一定能回答。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

史蒂夫鮑爾斯，德意志銀行。

I wanted to go back to the discussion on CapEx that Kaumil had begun earlier in the call.

我想回到考米爾早些時候在電話會議中開始的關於資本支出的討論。

In your answer there, you highlighted the modular nature of ongoing expansions, and I guess therefore the -- effectively the discretion you have over CapEx.

在您的回答中，您強調了正在進行的擴展的模組化性質，因此我想，您對資本支出的自由裁量權實際上是這樣的。

And I think that's intuitive with respect to expansions in Northern Mexico.

我認為這對北墨西哥的擴張來說是直觀的。

But I guess my impression of Veracruz commitments is that they're a bit more fixed.

但我想我對韋拉克魯斯承諾的印像是它們更加固定。

So could you talk about whether that is correct or not?

那麼您能談談這是否正確嗎？

And then maybe more generally, just how much of the beer CapEx you've outlined, from here, how much of that would you frame is like truly discretionary through fiscal '28?

然後也許更一般地說，您所概述的啤酒資本支出中有多少，從這裡開始，您將在 28 財年真正酌情制定其中的多少？

So let me answer the first part of that.

那麼讓我來回答第一部分。

Yes, we are expecting to open Veracruz as Garth noted in roughly 18 months, a little less, which is right on schedule with what we had anticipated.

是的，正如 Garth 所說，我們預計韋拉克魯斯將在大約 18 個月內開業，時間稍短一些，這與我們的預期完全一致。

That has all been mapped into what our anticipated supply requirements are.

這些都已映射到我們預期的供應需求。

My point about modular was if we need to add more going forward at Veracruz or at Obregon as an example, we make -- we can speed up or slow down additional capacity expansions as need be going forward.

我對模組化的觀點是，如果我們需要在韋拉克魯斯或奧布雷貢增加更多的產能，我們可以根據未來的需要加快或減慢額外的產能擴張。

I think that's the beauty of where we are today versus at a time several years ago where frankly, we were just trying to keep up with demand.

我認為這就是我們今天所處的美妙之處，而幾年前坦白說，我們只是想滿足需求。

We're in a much better position today that allows us to move forward with capital expenditures against building out our facilities in conjunction with what we see the business delivering.

今天我們處於一個更好的位置，這使我們能夠根據我們看到的業務交付情況來推進資本支出，以建立我們的設施。

I think the only thing I'd add to that Bill is just as you think about Veracruz and the fact that it will come online in the time frame in which we were previously discussing, it's important to note that the first module that comes online at Veracruz is only 3 million hectares.

我認為我要在該法案中添加的唯一內容就是正如您對韋拉克魯斯的看法一樣，事實上它將在我們之前討論的時間範圍內上線，重要的是要注意，第一個模組上線於韋拉克魯斯州只有300萬公頃。

So it's a relatively small piece of the overall production footprint.

因此，它在整個生產足跡中只佔相對較小的部分。

We have reached end of our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節已經結束。

I'd like to turn the floor back over to Bill for any further or closing comments.

我想將發言權交還給比爾，以徵求進一步的意見或結束意見。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

In closing, while in the third quarter, we continued to manage a softer consumer backdrop due to macroeconomic headwinds, the growth of our beer business still outperformed that of the total beverage industry.

最後，雖然在第三季度，由於宏觀經濟不利因素，我們繼續應對消費疲軟的情況，但我們的啤酒業務的成長仍然優於整個飲料行業的成長。

And as a company, we also outpaced the total CPG sector both on a dollar sales basis.

作為一家公司，我們在銷售額方面也超過了整個消費品產業。

Furthermore, we also continue to consistently deliver against our capital allocation priorities including returning another $220 million to shareholders and buybacks in Q3, which brings our total year to date cash returns through share repurchases to approximately $670 million.

此外，我們也持續一致地履行我們的資本分配優先事項，包括在第三季向股東再返還2.2 億美元並進行回購，這使我們透過股票回購實現的年初至今現金回報總額達到約6.7億美元。

Looking ahead, we have prudently lowered our growth outlook for fiscal '25 given the near term uncertainty on when consumers will revert to more normalized spending.

展望未來，鑑於消費者何時恢復更正常化的支出的短期不確定性，我們謹慎地下調了 25 財年的成長預期。

However, we continue to expect another solid year with our revised comparable EPS range still delivering double digit growth from the midpoint and above underpinned by our continued progress against the key growth drivers of our beer business and our proactive actions to improve the performance in wine and spirits.

然而，我們仍然預計，我們修訂後的可比每股收益範圍仍將實現兩位數的中位數及以上增長，這得益於我們在啤酒業務關鍵增長驅動力方面的持續進展以及我們為提高葡萄酒和飲料業務表現而採取的積極行動。

And with that, we wish you all a Happy New Year and thank you again for joining the call.

在此，我們祝大家新年快樂，並再次感謝您加入電話會議。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That does conclude today's conference call and webcast.

今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。

We thank you for your participation today.

我們感謝您今天的參與。