希捷科技 (STX) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Seagate Technology Fiscal First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Shanye Hudson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Seagate Technology 2023 財年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係和財政部高級副總裁 Shanye Hudson。請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to today's call. Joining me are Dave Mosley, Seagate's Chief Executive Officer; and Gianluca Romano, our Chief Financial Officer. We've posted our earnings press release and detailed supplemental information for our fiscal first quarter 2023 results on the Investors section of our website.

謝謝你。大家下午好，歡迎參加今天的電話會議。希捷首席執行官戴夫·莫斯利 (Dave Mosley) 加入我的行列。和我們的首席財務官 Gianluca Romano。我們已經在我們網站的投資者部分發布了我們的收益新聞稿和 2023 財年第一季度業績的詳細補充信息。

During today's call, we'll refer to GAAP and non-GAAP measures. Non-GAAP figures are reconciled to GAAP figures in the earnings press release posted on our website and included in our Form 8-K that was filed with the SEC. We've not reconciled certain non-GAAP outlook measures because material items that may impact these measures are out of our control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考 GAAP 和非 GAAP 措施。非 GAAP 數據與我們網站上發布的收益新聞稿中的 GAAP 數據一致，並包含在我們向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格中。我們沒有對某些非公認會計原則的展望措施進行核對，因為可能影響這些措施的重大項目超出了我們的控制和/或無法合理預測。

Therefore, a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP measures is not available without unreasonable efforts. I'd like to remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and assumptions based on information available to us as of today, should not be relied upon as of any subsequent date.

因此，如果沒有不合理的努力，就無法與相應的公認會計原則措施進行對賬。我想提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述反映了管理層當前的觀點和基於我們今天可獲得的信息的假設，不應依賴於任何後續日期。

Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements, as are subject to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. To learn more about the risks and uncertainties and other factors that may affect our future business results, including expectations regarding any regulatory, legal, logistical or other factors, please refer to the press release issued today and our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q as well as the supplemental information, all of which may be found on the Investors section of our website.

實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異，因為會受到與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性的影響。要了解有關可能影響我們未來業務結果的風險和不確定性以及其他因素的更多信息，包括對任何監管、法律、後勤或其他因素的預期，請參閱今天發布的新聞稿和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，包括我們最近的年度報告10-K 表格報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告以及補充信息，所有這些都可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到。

Seagate also filed an 8-K today disclosing that on August 29, we received a proposed charging letter from the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security, or BIS, alleging violations of the U.S. export administration regulations.

希捷今天還提交了一份 8-K 文件，披露在 8 月 29 日，我們收到了美國商務部工業和安全局 (BIS) 提出的指控信，指控其違反了美國出口管理法規。

We have responded to the letter and believe that we've complied with all relevant export control laws and regulations. We've been cooperating with BIS, and we intend to continue engaging with them to seek a resolution. During the Q&A portion of this call, we won't be commenting further on this matter and we'll provide additional updates as appropriate moving forward.

我們已回复這封信，並相信我們已遵守所有相關的出口管制法律法規。我們一直在與 BIS 合作，我們打算繼續與他們合作以尋求解決方案。在本次電話會議的問答部分，我們不會就此事發表進一步評論，我們將在適當的情況下提供更多更新。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to you, Dave.

有了這個，我現在把電話轉給你，戴夫。

Thanks, Shanye, and hello, everyone. In our remarks today, we will discuss the September quarter performance in the context of an intensely challenging macro environment, and outline the aggressive actions we are taking to manage the company during this tough period.

謝謝山野，大家好。在我們今天的講話中，我們將在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下討論 9 月份季度的業績，並概述我們在這個艱難時期為管理公司而採取的積極行動。

Despite these near-term challenges, the underlying data demand drivers remain strong as does the opportunity for mass capacity storage solutions. And I will outline why we're confident that as current conditions improve, Seagate is in an outstanding longer-term position. For the September quarter, revenue came in at $2.04 billion, which was inside the revised guidance range that we provided at the end of August.

儘管存在這些近期挑戰，但潛在的數據需求驅動因素仍然強勁，大容量存儲解決方案的機會也是如此。我將概述為什麼我們有信心隨著當前情況的改善，希捷在長期處於出色的地位。 9 月季度的收入為 20.4 億美元，處於我們在 8 月底提供的修訂指導範圍內。

Non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 was well below our expectations, impacted by multiple gross margin headwinds that I'll touch upon shortly. As we shared in late August, 3 main factors were influencing our outlook: the impact of COVID lockdowns and the related economic slowdown in China, broad-based customer inventory adjustments, and weakening global consumer spending.

0.48 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益遠低於我們的預期，這受到了我稍後將談到的多個毛利率不利因素的影響。正如我們在 8 月下旬分享的那樣，影響我們前景的三個主要因素是：COVID 封鎖的影響和中國相關的經濟放緩、基礎廣泛的客戶庫存調整以及全球消費者支出疲軟。

Since the August time frame, macro sentiment has further deteriorated, which has led to a more cautious spending environment and more significant inventory adjustments as we move through the final weeks of the September quarter. These factors incrementally impacted sales volumes in the economically sensitive consumer markets as well as certain U.S. cloud customers.

自 8 月時間框架以來，宏觀情緒進一步惡化，隨著我們進入 9 月季度的最後幾週，導致支出環境更加謹慎，庫存調整也更加顯著。這些因素逐漸影響了經濟敏感的消費市場以及某些美國雲客戶的銷量。

We currently expect customer inventory drawdowns will remain a factor through at least the December quarter. We reacted quickly to adjust our production levels to the current demand environment and our gross margin performance reflects the resulting factory underutilization costs that increased markedly through the month of September.

我們目前預計，至少到 12 月季度，客戶庫存下降仍將是一個因素。我們迅速做出反應，根據當前的需求環境調整我們的生產水平，我們的毛利率表現反映了由此產生的工廠利用不足成本在 9 月份顯著增加。

It's important to note that consistent with some of the U.S. CSP comments, end user demand for core data and analytics applications remain solid, which supports our view that the business will improve as elevated inventory levels are consumed. In the meantime, we continued to respond to the changing market conditions and further reduced production output across all product lines with the exception of our 20-plus terabyte products, where demand has held firm and pricing relatively stable.

值得注意的是，與美國 CSP 的一些評論一致，最終用戶對核心數據和分析應用程序的需求保持穩定，這支持了我們的觀點，即隨著庫存水平的提高，業務將得到改善。與此同時，我們繼續應對不斷變化的市場條件，並進一步減少所有產品線的產量，但我們的 20 多 TB 產品除外，其需求保持堅挺且價格相對穩定。

Our actions underscore our focus on maintaining strong supply discipline, and we believe this will enable us to quickly return to a more favorable pricing environment across mid- to lower-capacity products as conditions normalize.

我們的行動強調了我們對維持強有力的供應紀律的關注，我們相信這將使我們能夠在條件正常化時迅速恢復到對中低產能產品更有利的定價環境。

Stepping back, today's highly uncertain macro environment stems from multiple factors outside of our control, such as rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and geopolitical dynamics. With that in mind, we are focused on managing what we can control and taking aggressive actions to appropriately respond to the near-term market environment and enhance profitability over the long term.

退一步說，當今高度不確定的宏觀環境源於我們無法控制的多種因素，例如利率上升、通脹壓力和地緣政治動態。考慮到這一點，我們專注於管理我們可以控制的東西，並採取積極行動以適當應對近期市場環境並提高長期盈利能力。

In addition to adjusting our production output to drive supply discipline and pricing stability, we are implementing a restructuring plan to sustainably lower costs, including a reduction in our global workforce. These are very difficult decisions to make and ones that we do not take lightly.

除了調整我們的產量以推動供應紀律和價格穩定外，我們正在實施一項重組計劃，以可持續地降低成本，包括減少我們的全球勞動力。這些都是非常困難的決定，我們不會掉以輕心。

However, we believe they are necessary to align our cost structures with the realities of the near-term market, while still enabling us to support future mass capacity storage opportunities as demand recovers over the longer term. We are improving working capital by reducing our inventory levels over the next couple of quarters, and we are significantly lowering our fiscal '23 capital expenditures while maintaining investments that support the launch and ramp of the 30-plus terabyte product family based on HAMR technology.

然而，我們認為它們對於使我們的成本結構與近期市場的現實保持一致是必要的，同時隨著長期需求的複蘇，我們仍然能夠支持未來的大容量存儲機會。我們正在通過在接下來的幾個季度降低庫存水平來提高營運資本，並且我們將顯著降低 23 財年的資本支出，同時維持支持基於 HAMR 技術的 30 多 TB 產品系列的推出和提升的投資。

These cost-saving actions, together with our supply discipline enable us to drive increased leverage to earnings as conditions improve over the near term. Longer term, we remain confident in the secular growth of mass capacity storage and believe our technology leadership positions us to capture the significant future growth opportunities.

這些節省成本的行動，加上我們的供應紀律，使我們能夠隨著近期情況的改善而提高盈利槓桿。從長遠來看，我們對大容量存儲的長期增長仍然充滿信心，並相信我們的技術領先地位使我們能夠抓住未來的重大增長機會。

Consistent with our focus on enhancing longer-term shareholder value, we are maintaining our quarterly dividend; however, we are temporarily pausing our share repurchase program to ensure we can continue to make necessary investments to support our current business and underpin our longer-term strategic plans.

與我們對提高長期股東價值的關註一致，我們將維持季度股息；但是，我們暫時暫停了股票回購計劃，以確保我們能夠繼續進行必要的投資以支持我們當前的業務並支持我們的長期戰略計劃。

Let me now share some perspectives on the end markets, starting with VIA. The global economic slowdown has continued to impact VIA-related project budgets and installation time lines, which has led to a buildup of customer inventory. These trends have dampened the typically strong seasonality in the back half of the calendar year, particularly in the China market. Stimulus programs to help boost the local economy have been announced; however, timing for economic recovery is not yet apparent, while COVID lockdown restrictions remain in place.

現在讓我分享一些關於終端市場的觀點，從威盛開始。全球經濟放緩繼續影響威盛相關的項目預算和安裝時間線，導致客戶庫存增加。這些趨勢抑制了日曆年後半段典型的強勁季節性，尤其是在中國市場。已經宣布了幫助促進當地經濟的刺激計劃；但是，經濟復甦的時機尚不明確，而 COVID 鎖定限制仍然存在。

Our long-term expectations for VIA demand have not changed. While we have significant direct customer exposure in China, end market demand is global and continues to expand, as smart video applications are adopted to address real-world challenges. For example, reducing traffic congestion, is one areas of focus for smart cities, which caused U.S. drivers alone, an estimated $53 billion in 2021. These savings can only be realized after capturing and storing large volumes of data and application best served by HDDs.

我們對威盛需求的長期預期沒有改變。雖然我們在中國擁有大量直接客戶，但終端市場需求是全球性的，並且隨著智能視頻應用程序被採用來應對現實世界的挑戰，它還在繼續擴大。例如，減少交通擁堵是智慧城市的重點領域之一，僅美國司機一項就在 2021 年造成了 530 億美元的損失。這些節省只有在捕獲和存儲大量數據和 HDD 最適合的應用程序後才能實現。

In the nearline markets, we saw a double-digit percentage sequential revenue declines across both cloud and enterprise OEM customers, reflecting the broad-based inventory adjustments that I described earlier. Recall, we had been anticipating the customer inventory correction to be largely complete in the December quarter. However, amid intensifying macro uncertainties, customers have grown more cautious with their spending plans, which we believe will extend the recovery in the calendar year '23.

在近線市場，我們看到雲計算和企業 OEM 客戶的收入連續下降了兩位數，這反映了我之前描述的基礎廣泛的庫存調整。回想一下，我們一直預計客戶庫存調整將在 12 月季度基本完成。然而，在宏觀不確定性加劇的情況下，客戶對他們的支出計劃變得更加謹慎，我們認為這將延長 23 日曆年的複蘇。

U.S. cloud customers are still reporting healthy demand tied to digital transformation, artificial intelligence and other applications that unlock data value and continue to rank among CIO's highest investment priorities. While enterprise CIOs continue to move workloads to the public cloud, according to a recent study, 80% of cloud users also have a hybrid cloud strategy, illustrating the desire to operate seamlessly across the network of public and private clouds. We believe these trends support our view for mass capacity exabyte growth to return to the upper 20% range as the broader markets recover.

美國雲客戶仍報告與數字化轉型、人工智能和其他釋放數據價值的應用程序相關的健康需求，並繼續躋身首席信息官的最高投資優先事項之列。根據最近的一項研究，雖然企業 CIO 繼續將工作負載轉移到公共雲，但 80% 的雲用戶也有混合雲戰略，這表明了跨公共雲和私有云網絡無縫運行的願望。我們相信這些趨勢支持我們的觀點，即隨著更廣泛的市場復甦，海量容量 EB 增長將回到 20% 以上的範圍。

These same trends underscore the positive market momentum we are seeing in our enterprise systems business, which recorded revenue growth of over 45% sequentially. While we expect sequential sales levels to reflect some lingering supply challenges in the December quarter, our systems results illustrate how customers are still allocating budget dollars towards areas that drive business value. The data trends that rely on cost-efficient, higher-capacity storage solutions remain intact. As a leader in HDD technology, Seagate is well equipped to address demand by continuing to execute our strong product road map.

這些相同的趨勢突顯了我們在企業系統業務中看到的積極市場勢頭，其收入連續增長超過 45%。雖然我們預計連續銷售水平將反映 12 月季度的一些揮之不去的供應挑戰，但我們的系統結果表明客戶仍在將預算資金分配給推動業務價值的領域。依賴於經濟高效、容量更大的存儲解決方案的數據趨勢保持不變。作為 HDD 技術的領導者，希捷有能力通過繼續執行我們強大的產品路線圖來滿足需求。

We are leveraging the current production slowdown to double down on our development actions and accelerate cycles of learning to continue delivering TCO value to customers. Sales of our 20-plus terabyte product family grew meaningfully quarter-over-quarter, supported by strong demand from cloud customers. 20-plus terabyte drives now rank as our highest volume and revenue platform, surpassing 18 terabytes as expected. We are extending this product family using conventional CMR technology into the mid-20 terabyte range, which also offers SMR capabilities into the upper 20-terabyte range.

我們正在利用當前的生產放緩來加倍我們的開發行動並加快學習週期，以繼續為客戶提供 TCO 價值。在雲客戶強勁需求的支持下，我們 20 多 TB 產品系列的銷售額環比增長顯著。 20 多 TB 驅動器現在是我們銷量和收入最高的平台，正如預期的那樣超過 18 TB。我們正在使用傳統的 CMR 技術將這個產品系列擴展到 20 TB 中等範圍，它還提供 SMR 功能到 20 TB 以上範圍。

Development of our 30-plus terabyte platform based on HAMR technology remains firmly on track. In addition to HAMR, these drives incorporate many new technology innovations to reflect years of development, design and integration know-how to form the backbone of our future product portfolio. We continue to execute our development plans meeting key milestones, including reliability metrics and aerial density gains that also position us to extend drive capacities well beyond 30 terabytes. As I shared in our July earnings call, customer revenue shipments are expected to begin around mid-calendar 2023. And I could not be more pleased with our great progress this quarter.

我們基於 HAMR 技術的 30 多 TB 平台的開發仍在穩步推進。除了 HAMR，這些驅動器還融合了許多新技術創新，以反映多年的開發、設計和集成專業知識，構成我們未來產品組合的支柱。我們繼續執行滿足關鍵里程碑的開發計劃，包括可靠性指標和空中密度增益，這也使我們能夠將驅動器容量擴展到 30 TB 以上。正如我在 7 月份的財報電話會議中所分享的，預計客戶收入出貨量將在 2023 年中期左右開始。我對本季度取得的巨大進展感到非常滿意。

In closing, we are navigating through the macro challenges that are impacting our business over the near term. However, the long-term growth trajectory for mass capacity storage remains solid, driven by the fundamental demand for data and the need for businesses to harness its value. We believe that the actions we have undertaken will ultimately strengthen our position over the long term. Looking ahead, as we incessantly push the technology innovation road map, we believe our customers will continue to value Seagate as their primary storage solutions provider.

最後，我們正在應對近期影響我們業務的宏觀挑戰。然而，在對數據的基本需求和企業利用其價值的需求的推動下，大容量存儲的長期增長軌跡仍然穩固。我們相信，我們採取的行動最終將鞏固我們的長期地位。展望未來，隨著我們不斷推進技術創新路線圖，我們相信我們的客戶將繼續將希捷視為他們的主要存儲解決方案提供商。

Gianluca will now cover the financial results in more detail.

Gianluca 現在將更詳細地介紹財務結果。

Thank you, Dave. Revenue came in at $2.04 billion, reflecting the evolving macro landscape that Dave described in his remarks. Non-GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 9%, below our expectation at the end of August due to lower revenue, a less favorable market mix and higher underutilization charges, as we continue to lower our production output as we gain visibility into December quarter demand.

謝謝你，戴夫。收入為 20.4 億美元，反映了戴夫在講話中描述的不斷變化的宏觀格局。本季度非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 9%，低於我們在 8 月底的預期，原因是收入下降、市場組合不佳以及未充分利用費用增加，因為隨著我們對 12 月季度的了解，我們繼續降低產量要求。

We are taking decisive actions to reduce expenses, reserve cash and improve long-term profitability, which include reducing production output to enable rapid inventory correction at our customers and on our own balance sheet, significantly lowering capital expenditures for the rest of the fiscal year, resulting in CapEx as a percentage of revenue to be below the long-term target range of 4% to 6% of revenue. And executing a restructuring plan to sustainably reduce our cost by approximately $110 million annualized.

我們正在採取果斷行動來減少開支、儲備現金和提高長期盈利能力，其中包括減少產量，以便在我們的客戶和我們自己的資產負債表上快速糾正庫存，顯著降低本財年剩餘時間的資本支出，導致資本支出佔收入的百分比低於收入的 4% 至 6% 的長期目標範圍。並執行重組計劃，以可持續地每年減少約 1.1 億美元的成本。

We believe this action will put the company in a strong financial position when the global macro business environment begins to recover and expand operating profit faster than revenue growth.

我們相信，當全球宏觀商業環境開始復蘇並且營業利潤增長快於收入增長時，這一舉措將使公司處於強勁的財務狀況。

Moving to our end markets. As we have mentioned, intensifying macroeconomic pressure and more reserved customer buying behavior impacted our results across both mass capacity and legacy markets. In the September quarter, total hard disk drives capacity shipments were 118 exabytes, down 24% sequentially and 26% year-on-year.

轉向我們的終端市場。正如我們所提到的，不斷加劇的宏觀經濟壓力和更加保守的客戶購買行為影響了我們在大規模產能和傳統市場上的業績。在 9 月季度，硬盤驅動器總容量出貨量為 118 EB，環比下降 24%，同比下降 26%。

Mass capacity market made up 88% of the total, with shipments of 104 exabyte, down 25% sequentially and 21% year-over-year. Average capacity per drive increased 3 percentage points sequentially to 11.8 terabytes, reflecting continued growth demand for our 20-plus terabyte product family, which represents over 40% of total mass capacity exabytes shipped in the September quarter.

大容量市場佔總量的 88%，出貨量為 104 EB，環比下降 25%，同比下降 21%。每個驅動器的平均容量環比增長 3 個百分點至 11.8 TB，反映了對我們 20 多 TB 產品系列的持續增長需求，佔 9 月季度出貨的總質量容量 EB 的 40% 以上。

Nearline shipments totaled 85 exabytes, down 28% sequentially, reflecting the ongoing inventory adjustment at both cloud and enterprise OEM customers, which are expected to last through the calendar year-end. On a revenue basis, mass capacity [represented] 78% of total HDD revenue at $1.4 billion in the September quarter. As a percentage of HDD revenue, mass capacity was down 2 percentage points sequentially and up 7 percentage points year-on-year.

近線出貨量總計 85 艾字節，環比下降 28%，這反映了雲和企業 OEM 客戶正在進行的庫存調整，預計將持續到日曆年年底。在收入的基礎上，9 月季度的 14 億美元，大容量容量佔 HDD 總收入的 78%。大容量佔硬盤收入的百分比環比下降 2 個百分點，同比上升 7 個百分點。

Consistent with our view at the end of August, VIA revenue was down quarter-over-quarter due mainly to the prolonged economic slowdown in China. Specific to our mass capacity market, we expect the prevailing macroeconomic challenges will extend through the December quarter, negating the traditional seasonal uptick usually seen in the VIA market.

與我們在 8 月底的看法一致，威盛的收入環比下降，主要是由於中國經濟持續放緩。具體到我們的大容量市場，我們預計普遍的宏觀經濟挑戰將延續到 12 月季度，抵消威盛市場通常出現的傳統季節性上漲。

As said, we remain confident in the long-term growth of the mass capacity markets in both the cloud and at the edge. Within the legacy markets, revenue was $391 million, down 20% sequentially. Quarter-over-quarter, the pace of decline was more pronounced in the mission-critical market due to soft enterprise spending, particularly in China and deteriorating consumer spending. Similar to the VIA market, we do not expect to see a typical seasonal uptick in overall demand for legacy markets in the December quarter.

如前所述，我們對雲和邊緣大規模容量市場的長期增長充滿信心。在傳統市場中，收入為 3.91 億美元，環比下降 20%。由於企業支出疲軟，尤其是在中國，以及消費者支出惡化，關鍵任務市場的下滑速度較上一季度更為明顯。與威盛市場類似，我們預計 12 月季度傳統市場的整體需求不會出現典型的季節性上升。

Finally, revenue for our non-HDD business was $263 million, up 21% sequentially. The increase quarter-over-quarter reflect the improving component supply for our petabyte scale solution in our enterprise system business.

最後，我們的非 HDD 業務收入為 2.63 億美元，環比增長 21%。環比增長反映了我們企業系統業務中 PB 級解決方案的組件供應不斷改善。

Moving to our operational performance. Non-GAAP gross profit in the September quarter was $498 million, corresponding to non-GAAP gross margin of 24.5%, down more than expected quarter-over-quarter. Underutilization cost represented a [250] basis point headwind to gross margin impacted by the adjustment we made to lower production output throughout the quarter in response to market conditions.

轉向我們的運營績效。 9 月當季非美國通用會計準則毛利潤為 4.98 億美元，對應非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 24.5%，環比下降幅度超過預期。未充分利用成本對毛利率造成了 [250] 個基點的不利影響，這受到我們為響應市場狀況而在整個季度降低產量所做的調整的影響。

These impacts were compounded by a less favorable market mix driven by a lower percentage of revenue derived from margin reach mass capacity markets and an increase in the non-hard disk drives business. Non-GAAP operating expenses were at $314 million, down $35 million quarter-over-quarter due to lower variable compensation and proactive expense management, which included strong control over discretionary spending and the pause in hiring.

這些影響因市場組合不太有利而更加複雜，原因是來自大容量市場的利潤率較低的收入百分比以及非硬盤驅動器業務的增長。非 GAAP 運營費用為 3.14 億美元，環比下降 3500 萬美元，原因是可變薪酬降低和積極的費用管理，其中包括對可自由支配的支出的嚴格控制和招聘的暫停。

In the December quarter, we expect OpEx to further decline by about $10 million, including savings associated with our restructuring plans starting later in the quarter. Based on diluted share count of approximately 210 million shares, non-GAAP EPS for the September quarter was $0.48.

在 12 月季度，我們預計運營支出將進一步下降約 1000 萬美元，其中包括與本季度晚些時候開始的重組計劃相關的節省。基於約 2.1 億股的稀釋股數，9 月季度的非公認會計原則每股收益為 0.48 美元。

Moving on to balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the September quarter with a total liquidity position of approximately $2.5 billion, including our revolving credit facilities, which is sufficient to support our strategic plans and meet customer demand. Despite lower-than-expected revenue for the September quarter, inventory ended fairly flat at just over $1.6 billion.

繼續資產負債表和現金流。截至 9 月季度，我們的流動資金總額約為 25 億美元，包括我們的循環信貸額度，足以支持我們的戰略計劃並滿足客戶需求。儘管 9 月季度的收入低於預期，但庫存收盤時持平，略高於 16 億美元。

We expect inventory to decline significantly over the course of fiscal 2023 as we align our supply chain and finished good levels to the prevailing demand environment. Reflecting the payment of previously committed amount, capital expenditures were $133 million for the September quarter. Free cash flow generation was $112 million, essentially flat with the prior quarter, as the improvement in cash from operations was offset by higher capital expenditures.

我們預計庫存將在 2023 財年顯著下降，因為我們將供應鍊和成品水平與當前的需求環境保持一致。反映先前承諾金額的支付，9 月季度的資本支出為 1.33 億美元。產生的自由現金流為 1.12 億美元，與上一季度基本持平，因為運營現金的改善被更高的資本支出所抵消。

We used $147 million for the quarterly dividend, and $408 million, we reported 5.4 million ordinary shares, exiting the quarter with 206 million shares outstanding and approximately $1.9 billion remaining in our authorization. In light of current near-term priorities, we are temporarily pausing our share repurchase program, but we remain flexible and opportunistic as conditions develop.

我們使用了 1.47 億美元的季度股息，4.08 億美元，我們報告了 540 萬股普通股，本季度末有 2.06 億股流通股，我們授權的剩餘約 19 億美元。鑑於當前的近期優先事項，我們暫時暫停了股票回購計劃，但隨著情況的發展，我們將保持靈活和機會主義。

In August, we raised $600 million in capital through a new term loan during fiscal 2028, resulting in total debt balance of $6.2 billion at the end of the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.1 billion for the last 12 months with total debt leverage ratio just below 3x. We expect interest expense for the December quarter to be approximately $74 million.

8 月，我們在 2028 財年通過新的定期貸款籌集了 6 億美元的資本，導致本季度末的總債務餘額為 62 億美元。過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 為 21 億美元，總債務槓桿率略低於 3 倍。我們預計 12 月季度的利息支出約為 7400 萬美元。

Looking ahead, we continue to face a challenging business environment, shared by macroeconomic and geopolitical [games]. Seagate, like our customers, is diligently managing cash and investment amid the disrupted demand environment. We expect these factors and ongoing customer inventory corrections to weight on revenue in the December quarter.

展望未來，我們將繼續面臨宏觀經濟和地緣政治[博弈]共同的充滿挑戰的商業環境。與我們的客戶一樣，希捷在需求中斷的環境中努力管理現金和投資。我們預計這些因素和持續的客戶庫存修正將影響 12 月季度的收入。

Please bear in mind our financial outlook for the December quarter is as follows: We expect revenue to be in a range of $1.85 billion, plus or minus $150 million. At the midpoint of our revenue guidance, non-GAAP operating margin is expected to be in the mid-single-digit range, reflecting the impact from higher underutilization cost, and we expect non-GAAP EPS to be in the range of $0.15 less from minus $0.20.

請記住，我們對 12 月季度的財務展望如下：我們預計收入將在 18.5 億美元的範圍內，正負 1.5 億美元。在我們收入指導的中點，非公認會計準則營業利潤率預計將在中個位數範圍內，反映了較高的未充分利用成本的影響，我們預計非公認會計準則每股收益將在 0.15 美元的範圍內低於減去 0.20 美元。

I will now turn the call back to Dave for final comments.

我現在將電話轉回戴夫以徵求最終意見。

Thanks, Gianluca. Seagate's team is acting with determination and agility to rapidly adjust to a highly uncertain environment. I'm incredibly proud of their unwavering focus. Throughout our 40-plus year history, Seagate has successfully operated through many adverse conditions, and we are putting that experience to work.

謝謝，吉安盧卡。希捷的團隊正以決心和敏捷的方式迅速適應高度不確定的環境。我為他們堅定不移的專注感到無比自豪。縱觀我們 40 多年的歷史，希捷成功地在許多不利條件下運行，我們正在將這些經驗付諸實踐。

We're taking the right actions to strengthen our near-term financial position and optimize liquidity through this period. We're driving forward on our technology road map which makes us poised to quickly recover, as market conditions improve as well as capture the significant future opportunities ahead.

我們正在採取正確的行動來加強我們的近期財務狀況並在此期間優化流動性。我們正在推動我們的技術路線圖向前發展，這使我們準備好隨著市場條件的改善以及未來的重大機遇而迅速復蘇。

Finally, we continue to operate with a deep sense of commitment to all of our stakeholders, our people, our customers, the communities in which we operate and, of course, to our shareholders. Gianluca and I would like to now take your questions.

最後，我們將繼續以對所有利益相關者、我們的員工、我們的客戶、我們經營所在的社區，當然還有我們的股東的深刻承諾來經營。 Gianluca 和我現在想回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

As you look into the December quarter, you've not reported a sub-$2 billion revenue quarter. I went back and checked all the way since back in 2005. What is your view on the inventory levels? And how much below demand levels are you currently shipping? And do you expect to exit the December quarter with a lower inventory level. And if I could also ask just are you expecting higher underutilization charges in December? Or should we expect the same magnitude?

當您查看 12 月季度時，您還沒有報告低於 20 億美元的季度收入。我從 2005 年就回去檢查了一遍。您對庫存水平有何看法？您目前的出貨量低於需求水平多少？您是否希望以較低的庫存水平退出 12 月季度。如果我還可以問一下，您是否預計 12 月份的未充分利用費用會更高？還是我們應該期待同樣的幅度？

Thanks, Wamsi. I'll let Gianluca quantify the underutilization charges. I think the blunt answer to your question is, yes, we're expecting to get the inventory levels of our own -- owned inventory and then of the customer inventories down this quarter. We'll watch the customers what they have at the builders, what's that flow through, hopefully, would have hoped that it would have happened by now, but I think macroeconomic conditions are weighing on everybody a little bit that way. And we believe that by controlling our own build plan, which results in higher underutilization charges that we can actually get our owned inventory down as well.

謝謝，萬西。我會讓 Gianluca 量化未充分利用的費用。我認為對您的問題的直截了當的回答是，是的，我們預計本季度我們自己的庫存水平和客戶庫存水平會下降。我們將觀察客戶在建築商那裡擁有什麼，流過什麼，希望，希望它現在會發生，但我認為宏觀經濟條件對每個人都有一點壓力。我們相信，通過控制我們自己的構建計劃，這會導致更高的未充分利用費用，我們實際上也可以降低我們擁有的庫存。

Yes. During the September quarter, we reduced production twice at the beginning of the quarter and then again during September. And we actually increased even more through the end of September. So we had more than $50 million of underutilization charges in the September quarter.

是的。在 9 月季度，我們在季度初兩次減產，然後在 9 月再次減產。到 9 月底，我們實際上增加了更多。因此，我們在 9 月季度的未充分利用費用超過 5000 萬美元。

December will be higher. So we start already with a lower production than the beginning of the prior quarter in October, in November. And then as the month of December, we will, of course, look at the demand for the March quarter and see if we can start to ramp back production or all we need to keep it lower. And I think Dave wants to add something.

十二月會更高。因此，我們從 10 月和 11 月的上一季度開始的產量開始下降。然後到 12 月份，我們當然會查看 3 月份季度的需求，看看我們是否可以開始減少產量，或者我們需要做的就是保持較低的產量。我認為戴夫想補充一些東西。

Yes. I think also just to your other point about this is pretty low historically, it certainly is. There's still macro challenges ahead of all of us. I think in FQ2, the consumer is pretty weak. Channel inventory is still fairly high, not on an absolute unit basis but on a run rate basis, certainly. And there's kind of muted to no seasonality at all this year in FQ1 or FQ2 for us.

是的。我認為，就你的另一點而言，這在歷史上是相當低的，當然是。我們所有人仍然面臨著宏觀挑戰。我認為在 FQ2 中，消費者很弱。渠道庫存仍然相當高，當然不是絕對單位，而是運行率。對我們來說，今年 FQ1 或 FQ2 完全沒有季節性。

And we're not expecting the cloud recovery in FQ2, we just are watching the inventory levels. In China will also -- the recovery will be slow there. We've been predicting some sort of recovery for about 3 quarters. And there is a little bit of sentiment that things will start to get better, but we want to see that in hard purchase orders just to be really frank. So the recovery is all dependent on the pace of the customers working through these inventory levels.

而且我們並不期待第二季度的雲恢復，我們只是在觀察庫存水平。在中國也將——那裡的複蘇將是緩慢的。大約 3 個季度以來，我們一直在預測某種形式的複蘇。並且有一點情緒會開始好轉，但坦率地說，我們希望在硬採購訂單中看到這一點。因此，復甦完全取決於客戶處理這些庫存水平的速度。

And if I could -- I mean, this is I know you guys said you really can't talk a lot about this export regulation area. But could you just give investors some sense on why you believe the shipments are not subject to export regulations? Does it have to do with the IP for the products and where it resides or any color you can share about why you have confidence in your position, clearly, you articulated that you do. So it's the why is, I guess, important from an investor standpoint.

如果可以的話——我的意思是，我知道你們說你們真的不能談論這個出口監管領域。但是，您能否讓投資者了解一下您為什麼認為這些貨物不受出口法規的約束？它是否與產品的 IP 及其所在位置或您可以分享的任何顏色有關為什麼您對自己的立場有信心，顯然，您明確表示您這樣做。因此，我想這就是為什麼從投資者的角度來看很重要。

Yes, Wamsi, I think like Shanye said, we don't really think it's appropriate for us to be commenting on it at all at this time. I mean we'll cooperate transparently, and we believe we have a really good compliance program in place with all the policies and procedures. So that's what builds our confidence. But like I said, we'll communicate transparently. I just don't think it's appropriate for us to be commenting.

是的，Wamsi，我想就像 Shanye 說的那樣，我們真的認為我們現在根本不適合對此發表評論。我的意思是我們將透明地合作，我們相信我們有一個非常好的合規計劃，包含所有的政策和程序。這就是建立我們信心的原因。但就像我說的，我們會透明地溝通。我只是認為我們不適合發表評論。

And our next question will come from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題將來自與 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

The first one for Dave. I'm just kind of curious heading into 2023, how should we think about the pricing environment? Is there a way to quantify it or quality do we see relative to the last downturn in 2019. And if we extrapolate how to think about revenue growth for FY '23 or calendar '23? And then I had a follow-up.

戴夫的第一個。我只是有點好奇進入 2023 年，我們應該如何考慮定價環境？相對於 2019 年的上一次經濟衰退，有沒有辦法量化它或質量。如果我們推斷如何考慮 23 財年或 23 年日曆的收入增長？然後我進行了跟進。

It's still a little too hard to call revenue growth. I'll let Gianluca quantify some of the pricing environment discussions. But I would say at the high cap, the 20-plus terabyte family, pricing was relatively benign. I think there was really competitive space, especially in legacy and the low cap nearline because those markets are so depressed right now. So it was fairly competitive.

稱收入增長仍然有點太難了。我會讓 Gianluca 量化一些定價環境的討論。但我想說的是，在 20 多 TB 的高容量系列中，定價相對溫和。我認為確實存在競爭空間，尤其是在傳統和低市值近線，因為這些市場現在非常低迷。所以競爭相當激烈。

And I think this is just a sign of the times in the industry when factories aren't full. People want to get as much demand as they can to keep running their factories and we're all mindful of that right now. So I think we need to see supply and demand come back in the balance to see a better environment.

而且我認為這只是工廠未滿的行業時代的標誌。人們希望獲得盡可能多的需求來繼續運營他們的工廠，我們現在都注意到了這一點。所以我認為我們需要看到供需恢復平衡，才能看到更好的環境。

In the legacy market, we saw some pricing pressure, so the low capacity drives, maybe also coming from the very low price of the NAND right now. On the high-capacity drive, as Dave said, the price environment is still very favorable and say fairly stable. So I would say different from what we have seen in prior down cycles.

在傳統市場，我們看到了一些定價壓力，因此低容量驅動器可能也來自目前非常低的 NAND 價格。在大容量驅動器上，正如戴夫所說，價格環境仍然非常有利，可以說相當穩定。所以我想說與我們在之前的下行週期中看到的不同。

Got it. Got it. Very helpful. And then just as a follow-up, clearly, your cloud customers, there's obviously very high levels of inventory digestion. There's pricing pressure. Have you seen any market share shifts in this environment, either in your favor or against you, especially among the U.S. hyperscalers?

知道了。知道了。非常有幫助。然後，作為後續行動，很明顯，您的雲客戶，顯然有非常高水平的庫存消化。有定價壓力。在這種環境下，您是否看到任何市場份額的變化，無論是對您有利還是對您不利，尤其是在美國的超大規模企業中？

We're not really trying for market share, I'd say at this point in time. We're watching all these inventories levels. And we're saying, let's make sure we build the right absolute right stuff. So I think there various challenges that I can articulate at various hyperscalers. And they have different business models, different dynamics within them. Some have multiple business models. So there's macro implications as you're hearing from some of their comments.

我們並沒有真正嘗試市場份額，我會說在這個時間點。我們正在關注所有這些庫存水平。我們說，讓我們確保我們構建正確的絕對正確的東西。所以我認為我可以在各種超大規模企業中表達各種挑戰。他們有不同的商業模式，不同的動力。有些有多種商業模式。因此，當您從他們的一些評論中聽到時，會產生宏觀影響。

And there are also architectural transitions and there's still supply chain shortages. In some cases, some of the supply chain shortages led to situations where people bought too much of the wrong stuff and then there's even overages in the supply chain. So I think it's really complicated as to how this inventory built.

還有架構轉型，供應鏈仍然短缺。在某些情況下，一些供應鏈短缺導致人們購買了太多錯誤的東西，然後供應鏈甚至出現過剩。所以我認為這個庫存是如何建立的真的很複雜。

Fundamentally, the creation vectors for data and the consumption of mass capacity drives have not changed. There is an aging of the fleet going on. There's replacement of old mass capacity drives with the new ones (inaudible) TCO proposition, higher capacity drives are just better that way. And so all of the relevant trends still exist. We believe that the drives that are in the data centers today are being used. They're more full than ever. The data keeps coming at them because of all the hyperscaler product offerings that are incentivizing people to move to the cloud. So we think this is just a temporary environment.

從根本上說，數據的創建向量和大容量驅動器的消耗沒有改變。船隊正在老化。用新的（聽不清）TCO 提議替換舊的大容量驅動器，更高容量的驅動器更好。所以所有相關的趨勢仍然存在。我們相信，當今數據中心中的驅動器正在被使用。他們比以往任何時候都更充實。數據源源不斷地向他們湧來，因為所有超大規模產品都在激勵人們遷移到雲端。所以我們認為這只是一個暫時的環境。

Down cycle for me -- in a down cycle, market share is not -- should not be the priority or -- the important is to focus on free cash flow. And keeping the free cash flow positive and also to keep the pricing environment as stable as possible, and this means reduced production, try to keep supply and demand in a good balance. And of course, preparing for the long-term demand that we -- for sure, we still see very, very solid.

對我來說，下行週期——在下行週期中，市場份額不是——不應該是優先事項，或者——重要的是關注自由現金流。保持自由現金流為正，同時保持定價環境盡可能穩定，這意味著減產，盡量保持供需平衡。當然，為我們的長期需求做準備 - 當然，我們仍然看到非常非常可靠。

Our next question will come from Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題將來自法國巴黎銀行的 Karl Ackerman。

Two questions for me as well, please. The first one is on HAMR. And so I guess as you think about ways to reach demand equilibrium, how are you thinking about transitioning capacity to HAMR during this softer period? I guess, does the transition to HAMR create the need for retooling head and possibly media production? And I guess as you address that question, could you also discuss the buy-in on HAMR from your cloud customers and some of the progress you referenced in your prepared remarks.

請給我兩個問題。第一個是在 HAMR 上。因此，我想當您考慮達到需求平衡的方法時，您如何考慮在這個疲軟時期將產能轉移到 HAMR？我想，向 HAMR 的過渡是否會產生對頭部重組和可能的媒體製作的需求？我想在您解決這個問題時，您是否還可以討論一下您的雲客戶對 HAMR 的支持以及您在準備好的評論中提到的一些進展。

Yes. Thanks, Karl. What I would say is that in the current environment where you have free capacity in your fabs, you use that to run more and more experiments to accelerate things. I mean that's one lesson from numerous downturns in the past that I have. So we're definitely taking advantage of that to do all we can to accelerate not only HAMR, but get the yields up and the scrap down and get to better cost platforms and things like that. We're gaining so much confidence on HAMR that not only talking about the dates, but we're also talking about the ability to move capacity up beyond just introductory, say, 30-terabyte platform up to higher capacity points.

是的。謝謝，卡爾。我想說的是，在當前您的晶圓廠擁有空閒產能的環境中，您可以使用它來運行越來越多的實驗來加速事情。我的意思是，這是我過去經歷的無數次低迷中的一個教訓。因此，我們肯定會利用這一點盡我們所能來加速 HAMR，但要提高產量並降低廢料，並獲得更好的成本平台和類似的東西。我們對 HAMR 獲得了極大的信心，不僅在談論日期，而且我們還在談論將容量提升到不僅僅是介紹性的能力，比如 30 TB 平台到更高的容量點。

That also allows us then to take componentry out of 20-terabyte drives, for example, so that we can address the market that way. So all of that is going on right now inside Seagate. And I would say it's not just about one small piece of technology HAMR. It's also about readers and certain mechanical subsystems and electronics and everything else is really being brought together. We're in full stage product development right now and like I said in the prepared remarks, very happy with the progress.

例如，這也使我們能夠從 20 TB 的驅動器中取出組件，以便我們能夠以這種方式應對市場。所以所有這一切現在都在希捷內部進行。我想說這不僅僅是一小部分技術 HAMR。它還涉及閱讀器和某些機械子系統和電子設備，以及其他所有東西都真正融合在一起。我們現在正處於全面的產品開發階段，就像我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，對進展感到非常滿意。

Relative to CapEx, we've been planning for these transitions for a long, long time. So there's only a few tools that are tremendously complicated. The tools that we use that are making average recording heads and recording media, those tools can be repurposed and they're pretty sophisticated. We know how to run them. So a lot of confidence on being able to hit the ramp that way.

相對於資本支出，我們已經為這些轉變計劃了很長時間。所以只有少數工具非常複雜。我們使用的工具是製作普通的記錄頭和記錄媒體，這些工具可以重新利用，而且非常複雜。我們知道如何運行它們。因此，對能夠以這種方式進入坡道充滿信心。

That's very helpful. If I may squeeze one more in. Given the strength of your systems business this quarter, are there still match set challenges for you in that business? And are you still facing long lead times for other hard drive input components or have those challenges loosened and I guess, maybe back to what you would consider normal.

這很有幫助。如果我可以再擠一個。鑑於本季度您的系統業務的實力，您在該業務中是否仍然存在匹配的挑戰？您是否仍然面臨其他硬盤驅動器輸入組件的較長交貨時間或已經放鬆這些挑戰，我猜，也許回到您認為正常的狀態。

Yes. I think from a hard drive perspective, it's an easy answer. We have plenty of inventory right now. So we need to bleed that off. Relative to the drive side, or sorry, to the system side, we have had shortages, and I think the broader industry has had shortages. And sometimes just individual $1 component, sometimes assemblies like power supplies or nicks or things like that. What I would say is that most of that is breaking free, it's not completely done yet.

是的。我認為從硬盤驅動器的角度來看，這是一個簡單的答案。我們現在有很多庫存。所以我們需要把它放掉。相對於驅動方面，或者對不起，對於系統方面，我們有短缺，我認為更廣泛的行業也有短缺。有時只是單個 1 美元的組件，有時是電源或刻痕之類的組件。我想說的是，其中大部分都在掙脫，還沒有完全完成。

One of the reasons for the success of our systems business is the complexity is not very high. And so people are used to very bespoke solutions in that world, but they'll take what they can get and they're aggregating on less complex, simpler to achieve from a supply chain perspective designs. We see some smaller competitors really struggling for that, and that may even mean they have to exit the market.

我們系統業務成功的原因之一是複雜性不是很高。因此，人們習慣於在那個世界中非常定制的解決方案，但他們會採取他們能得到的東西，並且他們正在從供應鏈的角度整合不太複雜、更容易實現的設計。我們看到一些較小的競爭對手確實在為此苦苦掙扎，這甚至可能意味著他們必須退出市場。

So I think we've had quite a bit of success in our channel business as well. So I think all of these trends are really supply chain trends. We believe by building very, very few SKUs and building them well, that we'll have a market advantage.

所以我認為我們在渠道業務上也取得了相當大的成功。所以我認為所有這些趨勢都是真正的供應鏈趨勢。我們相信，通過構建非常非常少的 SKU 並將它們構建好，我們將擁有市場優勢。

And our next question will come from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

I seem to recall that the term loan, I think, has some covenants, maybe 4x is the covenant on the term loan. And it seems like you might be breaching this over the next few quarters. So I guess the question is sort of how comfortable can we be with the dividend. Can you sort of talk through that?

我似乎記得定期貸款，我認為，有一些契約，也許 4x 是定期貸款的契約。在接下來的幾個季度中，您似乎可能會違反這一規定。所以我想問題是我們對股息有多滿意。你能談談嗎？

Yes. No, we are happy with the liquidity that we have. Actually, no, our cash balance is higher than prior quarter. As you have seen, we have increased our debt during the September quarter. We are, of course, looking at covenants, looking at debt structure. And if we have to take actions there, we will, for sure, do it. But we are -- as we said in our prepared remarks, we are comfortable with the level of our dividend, but we are posing on our share buyback for a while.

是的。不，我們對我們擁有的流動性感到滿意。實際上，不，我們的現金餘額高於上一季度。如您所見，我們在 9 月季度增加了債務。當然，我們正在研究契約，研究債務結構。如果我們必須在那裡採取行動，我們肯定會這樣做。但我們——正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們對股息水平感到滿意，但我們正準備進行一段時間的股票回購。

So I guess just following up on that. So is the commitment -- I'm just trying to figure out in the continuum of the commitments for capital, is the dividend right at the top of the list? In other words, you would do what you would have to not cut the dividend. Is that a fair statement?

所以我想只是跟進。承諾也是如此——我只是想在資本承諾的連續性中弄清楚，股息是否排在首位？換句話說，你會做你必須不削減股息的事情。這是一個公平的說法嗎？

Yes. We want to protect the dividend. As you know, we -- one of our priority is shareholder return. And dividend is an important part of that. And we know that and we want to protect the dividend.

是的。我們想保護股息。如您所知，我們 - 我們的首要任務之一是股東回報。股息是其中的重要組成部分。我們知道這一點，我們希望保護股息。

And we'll continue to invest in ourselves and all the other things that make us Seagate through these periods of time, we have to come up with a plan and execute the plan relative to all those things, and that's what we're out to do. It's one of the reasons why we're dipping into our inventory, working -- getting working capital flowing a little bit more right now, not just the pause on the share buybacks, but we definitely want to execute this plan as aggressively as we can, as early as we can to make sure that we're safe.

我們將繼續投資於自己和所有其他讓我們在這段時間內成為希捷的東西，我們必須制定一個計劃並執行與所有這些相關的計劃，這就是我們要做的做。這是我們投入庫存、努力工作的原因之一——現在讓營運資金流動得更多，不僅僅是股票回購的暫停，但我們絕對希望盡可能積極地執行這個計劃，儘早確保我們的安全。

Great. Maybe as my follow-up, I had a question on this letter from BIS. And maybe can you help us -- I'm sort of trying to handicap the revenue, what the right normalized revenue would be if something were to come from this letter. I'm trying to handicap what the right normalized revenue is so....

偉大的。也許作為我的後續行動，我對 BIS 的這封信有疑問。也許你能幫助我們——我有點想限制收入，如果這封信中有什麼東西，那麼正確的標準化收入將是多少。我試圖限制正確的標準化收入是什麼......

I'm sorry, this is Shanye. Sorry. We actually -- as I mentioned earlier, just sort of 2 things. Again, we believe that we've actually complied with all relevant export control laws and we continue to cooperate with BIS, as it relates to this matter, but we're not going to comment any further on this call.

對不起，我是山野。對不起。我們實際上——正如我之前提到的，只是兩件事。同樣，我們相信我們實際上已經遵守了所有相關的出口管制法律，並且我們將繼續與 BIS 合作，因為它與此事有關，但我們不會對此電話發表任何進一步評論。

Our next question will come from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Erik Woodring。

I have 2, if I may. Maybe, Dave, just first for you. Can you maybe marry the comments you had in your preannounced -- the preannounced text today, with what you talked about at the beginning of September, meaning at the beginning of September, you mentioned for the first time that certain U.S. hyperscaler terminology -- the cautious buying terminology.

如果可以的話，我有 2 個。也許，戴夫，首先是給你的。您能否將您在預先宣布的評論中的評論 - 今天預先宣布的文本，與您在 9 月初談論的內容，即 9 月初，您第一次提到某些美國超大規模術語 -謹慎購買術語。

And then today talked about uncertainty worsening in the latter part of September. Does that imply that demand or purchasing habits from U.S. hyperscalers has incrementally deteriorated since the preannouncement or over the trends that you saw in September, still relatively in line with what you spoke about back in early September. And then I have a follow-up.

然後今天談到了 9 月下旬的不確定性惡化。這是否意味著美國超大規模企業的需求或購買習慣自發布前或您在 9 月看到的趨勢以來逐漸惡化，仍然與您在 9 月初所說的相對一致。然後我有一個跟進。

I do think things have been changing through the course of the summer. So yes, let me give you a little bit of color in. And in some cases -- in many cases, we have LTAs that we're constantly negotiating to give us predictability. We need that predictability to kind of run our factories and communicate with our supply chain partners so that we can get efficiency and lower cost and so on.

我確實認為事情在整個夏天都在發生變化。所以是的，讓我給你一點色彩。在某些情況下——在許多情況下，我們有長期協議，我們一直在談判以使我們具有可預測性。我們需要這種可預測性來運營我們的工廠並與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴進行溝通，以便我們能夠提高效率並降低成本等等。

Typically, the customers had been in the past pulling above the LTAs. What you saw through the course of the summer was a market change. And I think -- I won't say exactly when it happened because we have lots of LTAs that some are longer than others.

通常，客戶過去一直高於長期協議。你在整個夏天看到的是市場變化。而且我認為- 我不會確切地說它是什麼時候發生的，因為我們有很多LTA，其中一些比其他的要長。

They time out at different times. They're subject to changes things come up for renewal. So it's fairly complex. But as we get close to some of them ending within a quarter at the end of the LTA, for example, we're negotiating the next one, we get a sense of the inventory, the data center build outs that have happened or that are going to continue to happen, and that's what really changed this summer, if that helps for the color.

他們在不同的時間超時。它們可能會發生變化，以進行更新。所以它相當複雜。但是當我們接近其中一些在 LTA 結束時的四分之一內結束時，例如，我們正在談判下一個，我們了解庫存、數據中心的擴建已經發生或正在發生將繼續發生，這就是今年夏天真正發生的變化，如果這有助於顏色的話。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe, Gianluca, just one for you. Kind of, to think about the impact of your restructuring plan, is the view that kind of your quarterly run rate OpEx can be closer to, let's call it, $290 million starting in the March 2023 quarters after you go through this restructuring? Or is your current OpEx base incorporate some -- not just September, but then December incorporates some of the early parts of your restructuring efforts?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許，Gianluca，只給你一個。想想你的重組計劃的影響，你是否認為你的季度運營率 OpEx 可以更接近，讓我們稱之為，從 2023 年 3 月的季度開始，在你完成重組後的 2.9 億美元？或者您當前的運營支出基礎是否包含一些——不僅僅是 9 月，而是 12 月包含了您重組工作的一些早期部分？

Yes. We are executing the restructuring plan in November so you will see already some impact in the December quarter. I would say $290 million is very aggressive. It's probably in the $300 million range for the next few quarters.

是的。我們正在 11 月執行重組計劃，因此您將在 12 月季度看到一些影響。我會說 2.9 億美元是非常激進的。在接下來的幾個季度中，它可能在 3 億美元的範圍內。

And our next question will come from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

Yes. I've got 2 as well, if I can. With regard to going back to the LTAs and kind of just trying to establish better predictability in the overall business, I'm curious of how your discussions have gone over the past couple of months or how they've changed with the cloud vendors? And what you hear from them as far as assessing the level of inventory that they have relative to -- I think the comments in the call was that you've not seen any change as far as the demand drivers for the business.

是的。如果可以的話，我也有2個。關於回到 LTA 並試圖在整體業務中建立更好的可預測性，我很好奇您的討論在過去幾個月中是如何進行的，或者它們與雲供應商有何變化？就評估他們相對於庫存水平而言，您從他們那裡聽到的消息-我認為電話會議中的評論是，就業務的需求驅動因素而言，您沒有看到任何變化。

I'm just -- that degree of visibility that you're actually able to get at these cloud vendors of what they're holding, appreciating that each one is probably a little bit different.

我只是 - 你實際上能夠從這些雲供應商那裡獲得他們所持有的東西的可見度，欣賞每個人可能有點不同。

Right, Aaron, they are, and it's a fairly complex space. But I will say that -- if you look at what's aging off, the exabytes that are aging off is actually pretty small. The exabytes that they're putting on is relatively large. So the -- we believe the growth in usage of exabytes is large, but we also believe there's a little too much inventory. I'm not going to say it's -- I'm not going to try to quantify how much that is.

是的，亞倫，他們是，這是一個相當複雜的空間。但我要說的是——如果你看看什麼是老化的，老化的艾字節實際上非常小。他們投入的艾字節相對較大。所以 - 我們認為艾字節的使用量增長很大，但我們也認為庫存有點過多。我不會說它——我不會試圖量化它是多少。

I think there's other reasons why some of the pauses and data center build-outs have happened. And depending on which customer you're specifically talking to, it's -- can be complexities in their supply chain. It's not necessarily their business models that are driving the problem there. So -- and it's a complex space globally.

我認為發生一些暫停和數據中心擴建還有其他原因。根據您具體與哪個客戶交談，這可能是他們供應鏈中的複雜性。造成問題的不一定是他們的商業模式。所以 - 這是一個全球複雜的空間。

There's lots of different kinds of LTAs. We would just -- I would say that as they -- what I said before is as they've timed out, people have given us visibility to the next one and the next one is significantly lower. And so then therefore, we're in a period of coming to reality on that relative to what we're building and making sure we're disciplined through it.

有很多不同類型的 LTA。我們只是 - 我會說他們 - 我之前所說的是他們已經超時，人們讓我們看到了下一個，而下一個明顯更低。因此，因此，相對於我們正在構建的東西，我們正處於一個實現這一點的時期，並確保我們通過它受到紀律處分。

And then I believe in the comments in the call, you had suggested that the expectation was we returned to kind of a high 20% growth rate in nearline capacity shipments at some point as we work through this and we see recovery start to materialize. Correct me if I'm wrong, I think in the past, we've talked about north of 30% or even mid-30% growth. Is there something that's changed in your mind structurally as far as the growth underpinning the nearline business going forward?

然後我相信在電話會議中的評論中，你曾暗示我們的預期是我們在某個時候恢復到近線產能出貨量的 20% 的高增長率，因為我們正在努力解決這個問題，我們看到復蘇開始實現。如果我錯了，請糾正我，我認為過去，我們談論過 30% 以上甚至 30% 左右的增長。就未來支撐近線業務的增長而言，您的想法在結構上是否發生了變化？

So there's a difference between mass cap and nearline. So mass capacity typically would run a little bit higher -- or sorry, lower and then nearline would grow a little bit higher. So that's the reason for the difference. But I think our fiscal '23 will be an anomalous year for sure. And what kind of new trajectory we get into is, obviously, as we continue to build exabytes in the cloud, the growth rate will probably come down over the next 10 years.

因此，質量上限和近線之間存在差異。因此，質量容量通常會更高一點——或者對不起，更低，然後近線會增長一點點。所以這就是差異的原因。但我認為我們的 23 財年肯定會是反常的一年。我們進入什麼樣的新軌跡，顯然，隨著我們繼續在雲中構建 EB 級，未來 10 年增長率可能會下降。

But I do think that we believe the fundamental drivers are still there for data. We're pretty excited about answering that with more and more efficient drives as well, so which is why we're using this period to kind of get those drives into the factories to come out as aggressively as we can afterwards.

但我確實認為，我們相信數據的基本驅動力仍然存在。我們很高興能用越來越高效的驅動器來回答這個問題，這就是為什麼我們要利用這段時間讓這些驅動器進入工廠，然後儘可能積極地生產出來。

And our next question will come from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題將來自 C.J. Muse 和 Evercore。

I guess first question, I was hoping to dig a little bit deeper into gross margins. You talked about further utilization cuts. Is there any math you could kind of provide how to think about kind of fixed versus variable COGS. And also as part of the restructuring, what kind of impact will that have on gross margins and on what time frame?

我想第一個問題，我希望能更深入地挖掘毛利率。你談到了進一步的利用率削減。是否有任何數學可以提供如何考慮固定與可變 COGS 的類型。此外，作為重組的一部分，這將對毛利率產生什麼樣的影響以及在什麼時間框架內？

I'll let Gianluca answer quantitatively for you. I would just say that a lot of it comes down to this fundamental premise, just don't build anything speculatively when you're trying to manage cash. So we're not managing a gross margin outcome as much as we are just watching and making sure that any start that we have that we pull from stores and we use our cash that we're going to ultimately get paid for.

我會讓 Gianluca 為你定量回答。我只想說，很多事情都歸結為這個基本前提，當你試圖管理現金時，不要投機性地構建任何東西。因此，我們並沒有像我們只是觀察並確保我們從商店中拉出的任何開始並使用我們最終將獲得報酬的現金那樣管理毛利率結果。

We don't want our cash tied up at this point. We are going to make -- because of that, we're going to make a big dent in inventory, and we're very mindful of the impact of the factory workers in the supply chain and so on. But we just believe it's critical to resize the business for the future right now. So Gianluca, do you want to answer?

在這一點上，我們不希望我們的現金被捆綁。我們將製造——正因為如此，我們將大幅減少庫存，我們非常注意工廠工人在供應鍊等方面的影響。但我們只是認為，現在為未來調整業務規模至關重要。所以 Gianluca，你想回答嗎？

Well, on the utilization charges, as I said before, we had a little bit more than $50 million in the September quarter. When we go into the December quarter, we expect that to be higher and the revenue actually you expect to be a little bit lower. So the impact to gross margin percentage is, of course, higher. On top of that, you need to look at the mix. In the September quarter, we had a lower mass capacity percentage compared to the total HDD revenue compared to the prior quarter.

好吧，正如我之前所說，關於使用費，我們在 9 月季度的收入略高於 5000 萬美元。當我們進入 12 月季度時，我們預計會更高，而實際上您預計的收入會更低。因此，對毛利率的影響當然更高。最重要的是，您需要查看組合。與上一季度相比，在 9 月季度，與 HDD 總收入相比，我們的質量容量百分比較低。

And we also had higher system and system actually have a little bit lower gross margin than hard disk in general. So it depends also how the mix will be exactly in December. But probably have you seen from the guidance, we expect a further decrease in gross margin in the short term, but we are very comfortable with the long term as soon as the microeconomic situation will improve, especially in Asia and then in China. And this inventory correction will be over, and we go back to our more normalized revenue level. We actually expect to have a strong gross margin, as we were doing just 3 quarters ago. And there is no reason why we should not be in that range again.

而且我們也有更高的系統和系統實際上比一般硬盤的毛利率要低一點。因此，這也取決於 12 月的具體情況。但您可能從指引中看到，我們預計短期內毛利率會進一步下降，但一旦微觀經濟形勢好轉，我們對長期而言非常滿意，尤其是在亞洲，然後是中國。這種庫存調整將結束，我們將回到更正常的收入水平。我們實際上預計毛利率會很高，就像我們在 3 個季度前所做的那樣。我們沒有理由不應該再次進入那個範圍。

Very helpful. As a follow-up question, I guess, specific to the VIA market and thinking around surveillance in China, and totally separate question from kind of the BIS issues you referred to earlier. But curious if you're worried at all about increased regulations coming out of the [BOC] and BIS as it relates to further entities in China being placed on the entity list or unverified list. Is that something that you're contemplating as a potential risk to that part of your business?

非常有幫助。作為一個後續問題，我猜是針對 VIA 市場並考慮中國的監控問題，並且與您之前提到的 BIS 問題完全不同。但很好奇，您是否擔心 [BOC] 和 BIS 會增加法規，因為這與中國的更多實體被列入實體清單或未經核實的清單有關。您是否認為這會對您的業務的這一部分構成潛在風險？

Well, we still watch all the regulations that come out and process them, not only for how it might impact our products, but how it might impact the broader market as well, right? It's not just its demand in other parts of the market. And we've seen some impacts there over time for all markets. I think broadly speaking, there is a healthy diversity of different customers satisfying in demand. And I do think that ultimately, the demand is going to shift somewhere else because the demand for smart city applications, as we said in our script, is still there.

好吧，我們仍然關注所有出台的法規並對其進行處理，不僅是因為它可能如何影響我們的產品，而且它可能如何影響更廣泛的市場，對吧？這不僅僅是它在市場其他部分的需求。隨著時間的推移，我們已經看到了對所有市場的一些影響。我認為從廣義上講，滿足需求的不同客戶存在健康的多樣性。而且我確實認為，最終需求將轉移到其他地方，因為正如我們在腳本中所說，對智慧城市應用程序的需求仍然存在。

People want efficiency, whether it's in traffic control like we talked about or health care or video surveillance around the world make people safer. So we think that the -- that market has been underserved probably for the last year, and we think ultimately, it's going to come back. So it's just -- we're not building or packing into the products right now because we want to make sure that we see the purchase orders.

人們想要效率，無論是我們談到的交通控制，還是世界各地的醫療保健或視頻監控，都能讓人們更安全。所以我們認為——這個市場可能在過去一年裡服務不足，我們認為最終它會捲土重來。所以它只是 - 我們現在沒有構建或包裝產品，因為我們想確保我們看到採購訂單。

And our next question will come from Shannon Cross with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Shannon Cross。

Gianluca, maybe could you talk a bit about beyond inventory and lower CapEx? Any other levers you see that you could pull within working capital or other areas to drive incremental cash flow? And then I have a follow-up.

Gianluca，也許你能談談超出庫存和降低資本支出的問題嗎？您認為您可以利用營運資金或其他領域來推動增加現金流的任何其他槓桿嗎？然後我有一個跟進。

Well, we focus on all we can manage in the working capital. But for sure, the inventory level is the main driver that we can use right now. Our inventory has grown from $1.1 billion before the start of the COVID to almost $1.6 billion in the September quarter. So we have opportunity trying now to reduce our inventory. It, of course, will not happen all in 1 quarter, but we will diligently reduce our inventory in the next couple of quarters.

好吧，我們專注於我們可以管理的營運資金。但可以肯定的是，庫存水平是我們現在可以使用的主要驅動力。我們的庫存已從 COVID 開始前的 11 億美元增長到 9 月季度的近 16 億美元。因此，我們現在有機會嘗試減少庫存。當然，這不會在一季度內全部發生，但我們將在接下來的幾個季度努力減少庫存。

It's not as big, Shannon, but we can go with yields and scrap and these are still material numbers that the team can use the time, the excess capacity and so on to do the right experiments to drive those on the right products.

它沒有那麼大，Shannon，但我們可以考慮產量和報廢，這些仍然是團隊可以利用時間、過剩產能等進行正確實驗的材料數字，以推動那些正確產品的開發。

Okay. And then, Dave, I don't know if you can talk a little bit about this, but it seems like this restructuring is very obviously headcount focused, but are there other areas where you're reducing costs? Because it seems like this is kind of a flex down given the macro environment and obviously, the challenges with inventory on that, more than maybe a structural restructuring, if I can say that? Or am I off on that? And there's some actual big structural changes you're making to the business?

好的。然後，戴夫，我不知道你能否談談這個問題，但這次重組似乎很明顯是以員工人數為重點的，但你還有其他降低成本的領域嗎？因為考慮到宏觀環境，顯然，這似乎是一種向下彎曲，庫存方面的挑戰，而不是結構性重組，如果我可以這麼說的話？還是我對此不屑一顧？您正在對業務進行一些實際的重大結構性變化嗎？

Yes. I would say we'll still have the ability to flex up. Obviously, people impacts are the toughest parts of the job, and we're really sensitive to not only the people but the communities and the supply chain. There are big impacts happening right now. We are lowering output of some of the legacy products and completing product transitions to future products, which are more efficient products as well, just from a support perspective, so the complexity of the product line is coming down and resetting the factory footprint a little bit.

是的。我會說我們仍然有能力彎曲。顯然，人的影響是工作中最艱難的部分，我們不僅對人，而且對社區和供應鏈都很敏感。目前正在發生重大影響。我們正在降低一些傳統產品的產量並完成向未來產品的產品過渡，這些產品也是更高效的產品，僅從支持的角度來看，因此產品線的複雜性正在下降並稍微重置工廠足跡.

We haven't talked about that very much. But there are demand realities out there (inaudible) where may actually impact the factory footprint. So there's OpEx support around that as well.

我們還沒有談論太多。但是那裡的需求現實（聽不清）實際上可能會影響工廠的足跡。所以也有圍繞它的 OpEx 支持。

That will all help as we restructure and then come out. We're very mindful of the fact that we do need to accelerate into the future with the right products as well because that's been the nature of this business. I don't think there's a massive structural change in mass capacity data that we're planning at this point in time. We're just dealing with the reality of the current environment.

當我們重組然後出來時，這一切都會有所幫助。我們非常注意這樣一個事實，即我們確實需要使用正確的產品加速進入未來，因為這就是這項業務的本質。我認為我們目前計劃的海量容量數據不會發生巨大的結構變化。我們只是在處理當前環境的現實。

And our next question will come from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Jim Suva。

You've been very clear about the restructuring that's going on in the December quarter. And given the September quarter, which just ended, and in your December outlook, do you think that's actually sufficient to rightsize equilibrium supply and demand? Or do you think it's going to be like a more prolonged as you look at these ELAs and all the demand characteristics inputs from your customers? Do you think it would be a bit little bit longer prolonged recovery? Or do you think after the December quarter, we're going to be pretty free and clear then?

您對 12 月季度正在進行的重組非常清楚。鑑於剛剛結束的 9 月季度，以及您 12 月的展望，您認為這實際上足以調整均衡供需嗎？或者您認為當您查看這些 ELA 以及來自客戶的所有需求特徵輸入時，它會變得更長？你認為延長恢復時間會長一點嗎？或者你認為在 12 月季度之後，我們會變得非常自由和清晰嗎？

Well, it's a bit difficult to say right now. So what we are doing is keeping the level of production down for the month of October and November for sure. And then at the end of November, we will look at more tangible demand for the quarter of March and also June and see if it's the right time to ramp it back or if we need to keep it down for a few more weeks.

嗯，現在說起來有點困難。因此，我們正在做的是確保 10 月和 11 月的生產水平保持下降。然後在 11 月底，我們將研究 3 月季度和 6 月更具體的需求，看看是否是適當的時候將需求量回落，或者我們是否需要再降低幾週。

Yes. I think, Jim, maybe this ties back to Shannon's question as well. Mass capacity was up almost 60% in fiscal calendar '20, mid-30s in '21. FY '23 is likely going to be negative. That's the -- first time that's ever happened before. So it's not that data is not growing. It's certainly growing in all the application space. I just think that we've got to make sure we reduce our manufacturing build plans to maintain this healthy supply discipline.

是的。我想，吉姆，也許這也與香農的問題有關。在 20 財年、21 年 30 年代中期，大規模產能增長了近 60%。 '23 財年可能會是負面的。這是 - 以前第一次發生這種情況。所以並不是數據沒有增長。它肯定在所有應用程序領域都在增長。我只是認為我們必須確保減少製造計劃以維持這種健康的供應紀律。

And we may see a pop back to some of those big spikes again. It may be a more muted growth. We don't know, but we're really confident in the long-term drivers. And so we'll take this reset right now and then deal with the future as it comes.

我們可能會再次看到這些大峰值再次反彈。這可能是一個更溫和的增長。我們不知道，但我們對長期驅動因素非常有信心。因此，我們將立即進行此重置，然後處理即將到來的未來。

And our next question will come from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

My first question is on gross margin. So it sounds like your gross margin will be down quarter-over-quarter in December based on your answer to a previous question. But more importantly, how much are you under-earning your gross margin versus normalized level? Maybe help us break down by the various components between underutilization charges, COVID costs, logistics costs, maybe revenue mix? Anything there would be helpful. And I've a follow-up question.

我的第一個問題是毛利率。因此，根據您對上一個問題的回答，聽起來您的毛利率將在 12 月環比下降。但更重要的是，與正常水平相比，您的毛利率低於多少？也許可以幫助我們分解未充分利用費用、COVID 成本、物流成本、收入組合之間的各種組成部分？那裡的任何東西都會有所幫助。我有一個後續問題。

Well, based on the level of production that we have today, underutilization charges will be substantially higher than the September quarter because the period of time where we keep the production level, low, will be at least 2 months. We still don't know exactly if we need even to go a little bit longer. But that is the main reason why the gross margin is declining. And of course, with the top line being lower or the percentage is impacted even more.

好吧，根據我們今天的生產水平，未充分利用費用將大大高於 9 月季度，因為我們將生產水平保持在低水平的時間至少為 2 個月。我們仍然不確切知道我們是否需要走更長的時間。但這是毛利率下降的主要原因。當然，頂線較低或百分比受到的影響更大。

So that is, I would say, the majority. In terms of the COVID cost, there's been fairly flat quarter-over-quarter. We don't think that part will deteriorate. Actually now on the freight, we know we are spending a little bit less because we ship less unit. So those are the main drivers. And then with the restructuring, when we go in the next -- in the March quarter, the restructuring will start to have some positive impact to our P&L, of course.

也就是說，我會說，大多數。就 COVID 成本而言，季度環比持平。我們認為這部分不會惡化。實際上現在在運費上，我們知道我們的花費少了一點，因為我們運送的單位更少。所以這些是主要的驅動力。然後隨著重組，當我們進入下一個 - 在三月季度，重組將開始對我們的損益產生一些積極的影響，當然。

Okay. That's helpful. My follow-up question is, you talked about customers' inventory drawdown through at least the December quarter. Are you suggesting that revenue will grow in the March quarter? And then to the -- follow-up to that, how do you see this cycle playing out for the nearline market compared to the previous cycles in 2020, 2018, 2016. Those cycles usually fixed by dropping 2 to 3 quarters, and then it comes back on maybe a quarter or 2 quarters later. Do you think that will be comparable this time?

好的。這很有幫助。我的後續問題是，您至少在 12 月季度談到了客戶的庫存下降。您是否暗示收入將在 3 月季度增長？然後是 - 後續行動，與 2020 年、2018 年、2016 年的前幾個週期相比，你如何看待這個週期在近線市場上的表現。這些週期通常通過下降 2 到 3 個季度來固定，然後它可能會在一個季度或兩個季度後重新出現。你覺得這一次能比得上嗎？

I think 2016 was kind of a double dip. So it was a real odd ball. I don't expect that's going to happen here. I think what we have is a phasing up of a confluence of factors between macroeconomics and architectural transitions like we talked about, some supply chain issues that people still have. I do think we'll see some people start to come out of it sooner rather than later and other people may be more conservative.

我認為 2016 年有點像雙底。所以這是一個真正奇怪的球。我不希望這會在這裡發生。我認為我們所擁有的是逐步解決宏觀經濟和架構轉型之間的因素匯合，就像我們談到的那樣，人們仍然存在一些供應鏈問題。我確實認為我們會看到一些人遲早會開始擺脫困境，而其他人可能會更加保守。

So -- it's too early to call exactly when it's going to happen, but we're going to be watching it very carefully and then making sure that we use our cash to only build what's absolutely necessary for the market through that period.

所以——現在說確切的時間還為時過早，但我們將非常仔細地觀察它，然後確保我們只使用我們的現金來建立那個時期對市場絕對必要的東西。

And our next question will come from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Loop Capital 的 Ananda Baruah。

Yes, I ask 2 real quick. One on gross margin and then one on the restructuring plan. On the gross margin, so is it -- are you guys -- I guess the question is are you guys adjusting your production capacity at all? Or are you holding pat and just absorbing the restructuring charges right now? And I guess, sort of the follow-on to that is sort of that would -- sort of suggesting that any pickup in gross margin is all production-related going forward? And then I have a quick follow-up.

是的，我問 2 真的很快。一個是毛利率，另一個是重組計劃。在毛利率方面，你們是這樣嗎？我想問題是你們是否在調整生產能力？還是您現在只是在接受重組費用？而且我猜想，這種情況的後續可能會 - 有點暗示毛利率的任何回升都與未來的生產相關？然後我有一個快速跟進。

Well, I said this before, of course, the level of production will have the majority of the impact on our gross margin in the future, but also the restructuring, we are restructuring the company.

好吧，我之前說過這個，當然，生產水平對我們未來的毛利率有很大的影響，而且是重組，我們是重組公司。

This will give us some benefit and some financial benefit in the future. A part of this restructuring, a significant part of the restructuring is actually in manufacturing. So when production level goes back up to where it was before, and our top line will start to improve. As I said before, we expect gross margin to go back to where it was and even better.

這將在未來給我們帶來一些好處和一些經濟上的好處。這次重組的一部分，重組的很大一部分實際上是在製造業。因此，當生產水平恢復到以前的水平時，我們的收入將開始提高。正如我之前所說，我們預計毛利率會回到原來的水平，甚至更好。

Got it. So the restructuring is it also involves production? Is it production capacity as well, Gianluca? I guess, could you give us any sense of what -- how to think about the split of the restructuring program between.

知道了。那麼重組是否也涉及生產？也是生產能力嗎，Gianluca？我想，你能告訴我們什麼 - 如何考慮重組計劃之間的拆分。

I think, Ananda, as you know, there's many different types of factories that we have. And so some are dramatically underutilized. Others will keep running relatively heavy because we're doing experiments to make sure that we can do product transitions and get the yields up on the products that are going to bring us out of this period.

我想，阿難，如你所知，我們有許多不同類型的工廠。因此，有些沒有得到充分利用。其他人將繼續相對繁重，因為我們正在進行實驗以確保我們可以進行產品轉換並提高產品的產量，從而使我們擺脫這一時期。

And some of those products are way more efficient as well, so we can use that not only the investments that we're making from an OpEx perspective, but to guide ourselves towards what restructuring we need to do of our manufacturing footprint through this period. So I think they go hand in glove.

其中一些產品的效率也更高，因此我們不僅可以利用我們從運營支出的角度進行的投資，還可以引導自己在此期間對我們的製造足跡進行哪些重組。所以我認為他們是密切相關的。

But longer term -- Ananda, longer term, we will also have the benefit of our new technology. So with a 30-terabyte HAMR and future products based on that technology, we also expect that to be accretive to our gross margin. So there are many things that you need to consider when you start to model longer term.

但從長遠來看——阿難，從長遠來看，我們也將受益於我們的新技術。因此，憑藉 30 TB 的 HAMR 和基於該技術的未來產品，我們也預計這將增加我們的毛利率。因此，當您開始長期建模時，您需要考慮很多事情。

And Gianluca, when do you think you're at run rate for the OpEx portion of the restructuring program? (inaudible) run rate?

還有 Gianluca，你認為重組計劃的運營支出部分什麼時候能達到運行速度？ （聽不清）運行速度？

Yes. So if we execute the restructuring, as we are planned in November, I would say the March quarter will include the full benefit.

是的。因此，如果我們按照 11 月的計劃執行重組，我會說 3 月季度將包括全部收益。

And our next question will come from Thomas O'Malley with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Thomas O'Malley。

I just wanted to ask kind of an overarching question on the recovery here. Obviously, there's pretty limited visibility right now. Clearly, you're working through new negotiations with your customers, but could you just help give us a picture of how long and how deep this recovery may last.

我只是想在這裡問一個關於恢復的總體問題。顯然，現在的能見度非常有限。顯然，您正在與您的客戶進行新的談判，但您能否幫助我們了解一下這種複蘇可能持續多長時間和多深。

Obviously, you're guiding substantially down for December. As you look into the March quarter, obviously, customers are acting differently, but would you expect the total company revenue to be down again? Or do you think that you could see a recovery starting at the beginning of the calendar year?

顯然，你在 12 月的指導下大幅下降。當您查看 3 月季度時，很明顯，客戶的行為有所不同，但您是否預計公司總收入會再次下降？或者你認為你可以從日曆年初開始看到復蘇嗎？

Well, of course, it's difficult to predict the future, and we have been a little bit surprised recently, but I can tell you in our internal plan, we see an improvement in the March quarter compared to what we are carrying in December.

嗯，當然，很難預測未來，最近我們有點驚訝，但我可以在我們的內部計劃中告訴你，與 12 月相比，我們看到 3 月季度的情況有所改善。

And Tom, certainly on what we're planning on building and then moving, we intend to reduce our bills right now to make sure that the inventory gets properly adjusted. We said in our last quarter as well. I mean -- so we're watching the inventory that the entire market has. But we also do think that at some point, mass capacity is going to start climbing again. So we just want to get their with the right products and to make sure we control the bills.

湯姆，當然，在我們計劃建造然後搬家的情況下，我們打算現在減少我們的賬單，以確保庫存得到適當的調整。我們在上個季度也說過。我的意思是 - 所以我們正在關注整個市場的庫存。但我們也確實認為，在某個時候，質量容量將再次開始攀升。因此，我們只想為他們提供正確的產品，並確保我們控制賬單。

Especially if the situation in China will start to improve compared to what has been in the last 6 months, that will be a major benefit to our business.

特別是如果中國的情況與過去 6 個月相比開始改善，這將對我們的業務產生重大影響。

Got it. And then my second one is just on the right mass capacity exabyte growth rate for the long term. So I think, Dave, you talked about conversations with U.S. hyperscalers right now, most of them are coming in kind of below or the long-term agreement, was they were pulling above that previously. But you're really only taking the mass capacity growth rate down from like 30 to like the upper 20s range.

知道了。然後我的第二個是正確的長期大規模容量艾字節增長率。所以我認為，戴夫，你現在談到了與美國超大規模企業的對話，他們中的大多數都在某種程度上低於或長期協議，他們之前是否超過了這個水平。但是你實際上只是將大規模產能增長率從 30 降低到 20 多歲的範圍。

Obviously, nearline has been running above that. But with all these LTAs or these conversations that you have with these cloud guys coming in below, like how do you get comfortable with the fact that, that mass capacity is still at that high 20s rate? Like shouldn't it be normalized a little bit lower than that, given that these guys look to be ordering at a slower rate coming out of this higher growth period of time?

顯然，近線一直在上面運行。但是，隨著所有這些 LTA 或與這些雲計算人員的對話，你如何接受這樣一個事實，即大規模容量仍處於 20 年代的高速度？考慮到這些人在這個較高的增長時期看起來以較慢的速度訂購，難道不應該把它標準化一點嗎？

Yes, that's good. So this year it will be so far down. The question is, does it snap back or -- I made reference earlier in the call here to I think calendar '20, where it was 60%. So I don't expect that just to be blunt, but this is exactly why we go work those LTAs, give people predictability, our sales predictability on what exactly the demands are for our factories and then give the customers the predictability so that they can understand the pricing environment and so on and the number of exabytes we are going to need to pull.

是的，那很棒。所以今年它會下降很多。問題是，它是回彈還是 - 我在前面的電話中提到我認為日曆 '20，它是 60%。所以我不希望這只是直言不諱，但這正是我們開展這些長期協議的原因，為人們提供可預測性，我們的銷售可預測性對我們工廠的確切需求，然後為客戶提供可預測性，以便他們能夠了解定價環境等以及我們需要提取的 EB 數量。

And so we are still having those conversations very seriously with everyone. I think what changed through the course of the summer was the fact that they were telling us about what's going on this fall, and we got this phase-up of all these different macroeconomic business, architectural transitions that were happening that are affecting us.

所以我們仍然非常認真地與每個人進行這些對話。我認為整個夏天的變化是他們告訴我們今年秋天發生了什麼，我們得到了所有這些不同的宏觀經濟業務的逐步升級，正在發生的影響我們的建築轉型。

Our next question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I joined late, so apologies if you've already addressed these questions. First one on pricing on a per exabyte basis for your mass capacity business. I think in the quarter, that number was down kind of mid-single digits on a sequential basis, down kind of low teens year-over-year. I think there was a 12-month stretch from mid-'21 through early '22, where pricing per exabyte was down in the single digits.

我加入晚了，如果您已經解決了這些問題，我們深表歉意。第一個是針對您的大容量業務按每艾字節定價的。我認為在本季度，這個數字連續下降了中個位數，同比下降了十幾歲。我認為從 21 年中期到 22 年初有 12 個月的時間，每艾字節的價格下降了個位數。

Pre-COVID, it was down 15%, plus or minus. Should we expect pricing in your mass capacity business on an exabyte basis to be down low to mid-teens going forward? And kind of the benign conditions last year were kind of onetime, if you will? Or should we expect pricing to improve as you come out of this inventory digestion phase?

在 COVID 之前，它下降了 15%，上下浮動。我們是否應該期望您的大容量業務以 EB 為基礎的定價在未來會下降到十幾歲左右？如果你願意的話，去年的良性情況是一次性的？或者我們是否應該期望隨著您走出這個庫存消化階段，定價會有所改善？

No, I think the price will improve. Of course, in the September quarter, the mix is also very important. We shifted a lot of our 20 terabyte. So it's difficult to just look at the price in total. You really need to look at the price or the like-for-like was the same product.

不，我認為價格會提高。當然，在九月這個季度，搭配也很重要。我們轉移了很多 20 TB 的數據。所以很難只看整體價格。您確實需要查看價格或同類產品是同一產品。

What I said before that maybe no, you didn't get because you were not here. On the legacy part of the business, we have some pricing pressure. On the mass capacity, the mid capacity, there is some reduction, but on the high capacity drives, the pricing is very stable.

我之前說的可能不，你沒有得到，因為你不在這裡。在業務的遺留部分，我們有一些定價壓力。在大容量、中容量方面，有一些降低，但在大容量驅動器上，定價非常穩定。

Got it. That's helpful. And then, Gianluca, on free cash flow, as you go through this inventory digestion phase and lower levels of revenue, should we brace for a quarter or 2 of negative free cash flow? I don't think that's happened with you guys in a very, very long time? Or do you think you have enough levers on the working capital side to stay positive free cash flow for the next couple of quarters?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，Gianluca，關於自由現金流，當你經歷這個庫存消化階段和較低的收入水平時，我們應該為 1/2 的負自由現金流做好準備嗎？我不認為你們在很長很長一段時間內都沒有發生過這種情況？還是您認為您在營運資本方面有足夠的槓桿來在接下來的幾個季度保持正的自由現金流？

We think we'll stay positive. I said before, we also have a fairly high level of inventory that we are reducing. So this will help also with our free cash flow. So we don't expect so far any negative quarter on free cash flow.

我們認為我們會保持積極的態度。我之前說過，我們正在減少的庫存水平也相當高。因此，這也將有助於我們的自由現金流。因此，到目前為止，我們預計自由現金流不會出現任何負季度。

And this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

這將結束我們的問答環節。我想將會議交回管理層，以便發表任何結束語。

Thanks, Cole. As always, I'd like to thank all of our stakeholders for their ongoing support. I'm confident Seagate will navigate through these near-term difficult conditions and be in a stronger position to meet our customers' needs for innovation and for cost-effective storage solutions well into the future. Thanks for joining us today, and we look forward to further engaging with our shareholders over the next few months.

謝謝，科爾。與往常一樣，我要感謝所有利益相關者的持續支持。我相信希捷將度過這些近期的困難局面，並處於更有利的位置，以滿足客戶對創新和未來具有成本效益的存儲解決方案的需求。感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在未來幾個月內與我們的股東進一步接觸。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。你現在可以在這個時候斷開你的線路。