道富銀行 (STT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to State Street Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's discussion is being broadcasted live on State Street's website at investors.statestreet.com. This conference call is also being recorded for replay. State Street's conference call is copyrighted and all wise are reserved. This call may not be recorded for rebroadcast or distribution in whole or in part without the expressed written authorization from State Street Corporation. The only authorized broadcast of this call will be housed on the State Street website. Now I would like to introduce Ilene Fiszel Bieler, Global Head of Investor Relations at State Street.

早上好，歡迎來到 State Street Corporation 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議和網絡直播。今天的討論將在 State Street 的網站 investors.statestreet.com 上進行現場直播。此電話會議也正在錄製以供重播。 State Street 的電話會議受版權保護，保留一切明智。未經 State Street Corporation 明確書面授權，不得錄製此電話以進行全部或部分轉播或分發。此電話會議的唯一授權廣播將在 State Street 網站上進行。現在我想介紹道富銀行投資者關係全球主管艾琳·菲澤爾·比勒 (Ilene Fiszel Bieler)。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. On our call today, our CEO, Ron O'Hanley, will speak first. Then Eric Aboaf, our CFO, will take you through our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings slide presentation, which is available for download in the Investor Relations section of our website, investors.statestreet.com. Afterwards, we'll be happy to take questions. During the Q&A, please limit yourself to 2 questions and then requeue. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation will include results presented on a basis that excludes or adjusts one or more items from GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP or regulatory measures are available in the appendix to our slide presentation, also available in the IR section of our website. In addition, today's presentation will contain forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those statements due to a variety of important factors such as those factors referenced in our discussions today and in our SEC filings, including the risk factors in our Form 10-K. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them even if our views change. Now let me turn it over to Ron.

早上好，感謝大家加入我們。在我們今天的電話會議上，我們的首席執行官 Ron O'Hanley 將首先發言。然後，我們的首席財務官埃里克·阿博夫 (Eric Aboaf) 將帶您瀏覽我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益幻燈片演示文稿，該演示文稿可在我們網站 investors.statestreet.com 的投資者關係部分下載。之後，我們很樂意回答問題。在問答過程中，請將自己限制在 2 個問題內，然後重新排隊。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的報告將包括在排除或調整 GAAP 中的一個或多個項目的基礎上呈現的結果。這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 或監管措施的調節可在我們幻燈片演示的附錄中找到，也可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。此外，今天的演示文稿將包含前瞻性陳述。由於各種重要因素，例如我們今天的討論和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的那些因素，包括我們 10-K 表格中的風險因素，實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。我們的前瞻性陳述僅在今天發表，即使我們的觀點發生變化，我們也不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。現在讓我把它交給羅恩。

Thank you, Ilene, and good morning, everyone. 2022 is an unpredictable year for many of the world's investors and the people they serve. Despite a market we found in the fourth quarter, 2022 was the worst year for financial markets since the global financial crisis. Both fixed income and equity markets fell, impacted by the war in Ukraine and several macroeconomic headwinds, including broken supply chains, price and wage inflation, dramatically higher global interest rates, U.S. dollar strength and heightened fears of global economic recession, which remain today. The uncertainty created by these factors contributed to a meaningful year-over-year declines in global financial markets as well as increased market volatility impacting flows.

謝謝你，Ilene，大家早上好。 2022 年對世界上許多投資者和他們所服務的人來說是不可預測的一年。儘管我們在第四季度發現了市場，但 2022 年是自全球金融危機以來金融市場最糟糕的一年。受烏克蘭戰爭和若干宏觀經濟不利因素的影響，包括供應鏈斷裂、價格和工資通脹、全球利率急劇上升、美元走強以及對全球經濟衰退的擔憂加劇，固定收益和股票市場雙雙下跌，這些因素至今仍存在。這些因素造成的不確定性導致全球金融市場同比大幅下滑，並加劇了影響流量的市場波動性。

Despite these difficult macro conditions, State Street performed well. As a result, we continued to progress in 2022 towards achieving our medium-term targets. Our durable 4Q and full year 2022 results were driven by a strategy underpinned by our relentless focus on innovation, the power of our distinct value proposition and State Street's diversified products and services, all of which continue to resonate with clients as demonstrated by yet another year of strong organic net new servicing wins. As we continue to execute against our strategic agenda, we achieved a great deal in 2022. Slide 3 of our investor presentation shows our full year highlights and the progress we made towards achieving our strategic goals in 2022.

儘管存在這些困難的宏觀條件，State Street 仍表現良好。因此，我們在 2022 年繼續朝著實現我們的中期目標邁進。我們持久的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績是由我們對創新的不懈關注、我們獨特的價值主張的力量以及道富多元化的產品和服務所支撐的戰略推動的，所有這些都繼續與客戶產生共鳴，又一年證明了這一點強大的有機淨新服務獲勝。隨著我們繼續執行我們的戰略議程，我們在 2022 年取得了很大成就。我們投資者介紹的幻燈片 3 顯示了我們全年的亮點以及我們在實現 2022 年戰略目標方面取得的進展。

In a challenging operating environment, and compared to what was a very strong year for our business in 2021, we again delivered positive total operating leverage, pretax margin expansion and a higher return on equity, as you can see on the left of the slide. We drove continued business momentum, including $1.9 trillion of total new asset servicing wins, delivered total revenue growth and demonstrated ongoing expense discipline in the face of inflationary pressures and our continued investment in the resiliency and capabilities of our businesses, as you can see on the right hand bottom of the slide.

在充滿挑戰的經營環境中，與 2021 年我們業務非常強勁的一年相比，我們再次實現了積極的總經營槓桿、稅前利潤率擴張和更高的股本回報率，如幻燈片左側所示。我們推動了持續的業務發展勢頭，包括 1.9 萬億美元的新資產服務合同總額，實現了總收入增長，並在面對通貨膨脹壓力時表現出持續的支出紀律，以及我們對業務彈性和能力的持續投資，正如您在幻燈片的右下角。

While weaker average market levels created fee revenue headwinds for our investment servicing and asset management businesses in 2022, our balance sheet businesses, combined with higher interest rates in our deposit strategy, produced materially higher net interest income as compared to 2021. In addition, our foreign exchange trading services and front office software and data businesses produced double-digit year-over-year fee growth manifesting the desired results of our investments in these businesses and demonstrating the revenue diversification of our business model.

雖然較弱的平均市場水平在 2022 年對我們的投資服務和資產管理業務造成了手續費收入的不利影響，但我們的資產負債表業務，加上存款策略中較高的利率，與 2021 年相比產生了更高的淨利息收入。此外，我們的外匯交易服務以及前台軟件和數據業務產生了兩位數的同比費用增長，體現了我們對這些業務的投資預期結果，並展示了我們業務模式的收入多元化。

Turning to Slide 4 of our presentation, I will review our fourth quarter highlights. Business momentum was solid in the fourth quarter with new AUC/A asset servicing wins amounting to $434 billion, driven by broad-based wins across client segments. We reported 2 new alpha mandates in the quarter and expanded 12 existing Alpha relationships, 7 of which added additional back and middle office offerings. Helped by the sales performance, our AUC/A installation backlog was $3.6 trillion at quarter end. At Global Advisors, quarter-end assets under management totaled $3.5 trillion supported by another good quarter of ETF inflows.

轉到我們演示文稿的幻燈片 4，我將回顧我們第四季度的亮點。第四季度的業務勢頭強勁，新的 AUC/A 資產服務贏額達到 4340 億美元，這得益於客戶細分市場的廣泛贏利。我們在本季度報告了 2 個新的 alpha 任務，並擴展了 12 個現有的 Alpha 關係，其中 7 個增加了額外的後台和中台產品。在銷售業績的幫助下，我們的 AUC/A 安裝積壓在季度末為 3.6 萬億美元。在 Global Advisors，季度末管理的資產總計 3.5 萬億美元，這得益於另一個良好季度的 ETF 流入。

Turning to our fourth quarter financial performance. 4Q '22 EPS was $1.91 or $2.07, excluding notable items, up 7% year-over-year or 4% higher year-over-year, excluding notable items. The year-over-year EPS growth in a challenging market environment was supported by the resumption of common share repurchases in the fourth quarter as we focused on returning capital to our shareholders. Even in a year marked by economic and political disruptions, total revenue for the fourth quarter was the highest on record, increasing 3% year-over-year as lower total fee revenue was offset by very strong NII result, which increased 63% relative to the year ago period, primarily driven by higher global interest rates plus our balance sheet positioning and effective execution of our deposit management strategy.

轉向我們第四季度的財務業績。 22 年第四季度每股收益為 1.91 美元或 2.07 美元，不包括重要項目，同比增長 7% 或同比增長 4%，不包括重要項目。由於我們專注於向股東返還資本，第四季度普通股回購的恢復支持了在充滿挑戰的市場環境中每股收益的同比增長。即使在經濟和政治動蕩的一年中，第四季度的總收入也創下歷史新高，同比增長 3%，因為較低的總費用收入被非常強勁的 NII 結果所抵消，NII 的結果相對於去年同期增長了 63%去年同期，主要受全球利率上升以及我們的資產負債表定位和有效執行存款管理策略的推動。

As we meaningfully invested in our people and business, we remain focused on expense discipline in the fourth quarter with total expenses down 3% year-over-year or flat year-over-year, excluding notable items, in part supported by the stronger U.S. dollar. This was achieved by our relentless and ongoing focus on operational productivity simplification and automation. Turning to our balance sheet and capital. Our CET1 capital ratio increased to a strong 13.6% at year-end, recognizing the importance of capital return to our shareholders, and having already announced a 10% per share increase to our common stock dividend earlier in 2022, we resumed share repurchases in the fourth quarter, buying back a total of $1.5 billion of State Street's common stock.

由於我們對我們的人員和業務進行了有意義的投資，我們在第四季度仍然關注支出紀律，總支出同比下降 3% 或持平，不包括值得注意的項目，部分原因是美國走強。美元。這是通過我們對運營生產力簡化和自動化的不懈和持續關注實現的。轉向我們的資產負債表和資本。我們的 CET1 資本比率在年底增加到強勁的 13.6%，認識到資本回報對我們股東的重要性，並且我們已經宣佈在 2022 年初將我們的普通股股息每股增加 10%，我們恢復了股票回購第四季度，總共回購了 15 億美元的道富銀行普通股。

For 2023, it is our intention to return up to 200% of earnings in the form of common stock dividends and share repurchases, subject to market conditions and other factors. We expect our business mix, balance sheet strategy and earnings momentum will enable us to do so while maintaining prudent capital ratios within our target range. Accordingly, as we announced this morning, our Board of Directors has authorized a new common stock purchase program of up to $4.5 billion through the end of 2023. To conclude my opening remarks, I am pleased to be reporting the third year in a row of pretax margin expansion and higher return on equity, which demonstrates the successful progress we have made towards achieving our financial goals. Now let me hand the call over to Eric, who will take you through the quarter in more detail before I discuss our strategic priorities for 2023.

到 2023 年，我們打算根據市場狀況和其他因素，以普通股股息和股票回購的形式返還高達 200% 的收益。我們預計我們的業務組合、資產負債表戰略和盈利勢頭將使我們能夠做到這一點，同時將審慎的資本比率保持在我們的目標範圍內。因此，正如我們今天上午宣布的那樣，我們的董事會已批准一項到 2023 年底的新的普通股購買計劃，最高可達 45 億美元。在結束我的開場白時，我很高興連續第三年報告稅前利潤率擴大和更高的股本回報率，這表明我們在實現財務目標方面取得了成功。現在讓我把電話轉給埃里克，在我討論我們 2023 年的戰略重點之前，他將帶您更詳細地了解本季度。

Thank you, Ron, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin my review of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results, let me briefly discuss some of the notable items we recognized in the quarter outlined on Slide 5. First, we recognized acquisition and restructuring costs, including wind-down expenses related to the Brown Brothers Investor Services acquisition transaction, which we are no longer pursuing. Second, we recognized $70 million of repositioning costs consisting of an employee severance charge of $50 million to eliminate approximately 200 middle and senior manager positions, largely related to our Investment Services business as we continue to streamline our organizational structure. We also recognized $20 million of occupancy charge in the quarter to help us further shrink our occupancy costs. We expect these actions to generate a total run rate savings of roughly $100 million.

謝謝你，羅恩，大家早上好。在我開始回顧我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績之前，讓我簡要討論一下我們在幻燈片 5 中列出的本季度確認的一些值得注意的項目。首先，我們確認了收購和重組成本，包括與Brown Brothers Investor Services 收購交易，我們不再進行。其次，我們確認了 7000 萬美元的重新定位成本，其中包括 5000 萬美元的員工遣散費，用於裁減約 200 個中高級經理職位，這主要與我們繼續精簡組織結構的投資服務業務有關。我們還在本季度確認了 2000 萬美元的佔用費用，以幫助我們進一步縮減佔用成本。我們預計這些行動將產生大約 1 億美元的總運行率節省。

Lastly, we recognized the benefit of $23 million in the quarter related to the settlement proceeds from the 2018 FX benchmark litigation resolution, which is reflected in the FX trading services GAAP revenue line. Taken together, we recognized notable items of $78 million pretax or $0.16 a share.

最後，我們在本季度確認了與 2018 年外匯基準訴訟決議的結算收益相關的 2300 萬美元收益，這反映在外匯交易服務 GAAP 收入線中。總而言之，我們確認了稅前 7800 萬美元或每股 0.16 美元的顯著項目。

Now turning to Slide 6. I'll begin my review of both our fourth quarter '22 and full year '22 results. As you can see on the top left of the table, despite the dynamic and challenging operating environment, the diversity and durability of our business model allowed us to finish the fourth quarter with solid results. Total revenue for the quarter increased 3% year-over-year or 5% year-over-year, excluding notable items. As lower fee revenue was more than offset by robust NII growth of 63%, which I'll spend more time discussing later in today's presentation. We also continue to demonstrate prudent expense management which enabled us to deliver positive operating leverage in the quarter, and pretax margin is up more than 4 percentage points year-on-year, while ROE is up more than a percentage point this quarter as well.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。我將開始回顧我們 22 年第四季度和 22 年全年的業績。正如您在表格左上角看到的那樣，儘管運營環境充滿活力和挑戰，但我們業務模式的多樣性和持久性使我們能夠以穩健的業績結束第四季度。本季度總收入同比增長 3% 或同比增長 5%，不包括重要項目。由於較低的費用收入被強勁的 NII 增長 63% 所抵消，我將在今天的演講中花更多時間討論這一點。我們還繼續展示審慎的費用管理，這使我們能夠在本季度提供積極的運營槓桿，稅前利潤率同比增長超過 4 個百分點，而本季度的股本回報率也增長超過一個百分點。

On the right side of the slide, we show our full year 2022 performance. Notwithstanding the challenging operating environment we saw in 2022 for the year, I'm quite pleased that we again delivered positive operating leverage and nearly a percentage point improvement in pretax margin. As Ron mentioned, it has been 3 consecutive years of margin expansion and ROE improvement.

在幻燈片的右側，我們展示了我們 2022 年的全年業績。儘管我們在 2022 年看到充滿挑戰的經營環境，但我很高興我們再次實現了積極的經營槓桿，並且稅前利潤率提高了近一個百分點。正如 Ron 提到的，它已經連續 3 年實現利潤率擴張和 ROE 改善。

Turning to Slide 7. During the quarter, we saw period-end AUC/A decrease by 16% on a year-on-year basis but increased 3% sequentially. The Year-on-year, the decrease in AUC/A was largely driven by continued lower period end market levels across both equity and fixed income markets globally, a previously disclosed client transition and the negative impact of currency translation, partially offset by net new business installations.

轉到幻燈片 7。在本季度，我們看到期末 AUC/A 同比下降 16%，但環比增長 3%。與去年同期相比，AUC/A 的下降主要是由於全球股票和固定收益市場的期末市場水平持續走低、之前披露的客戶轉型和貨幣換算的負面影響，部分被新淨淨額抵消商業設施。

Quarter-on-quarter AUC/A increased as a result of higher quarter end equity market levels and the positive impact of currency translation. At Global Advisors, we saw similar dynamics play out. Period end AUM decreased 16% year-on-year and increased 7% sequentially. The year-on-year decline in AUM was largely driven by lower period end market levels, some institutional net outflows and the negative impact of currency translation, which was partially offset by $22 billion of net inflows in our Spider ETF business. Quarter-on-quarter, the increase in AUM was primarily due to higher quarter end market levels. ETF net inflows and the positive impact of currency translation, partially offset by cash net outflows.

由於季度末股票市場水平較高以及貨幣換算的積極影響，環比 AUC/A 有所增加。在 Global Advisors，我們看到了類似的動態。期末 AUM 同比下降 16%，環比增長 7%。 AUM 的同比下降主要是由於期末市場水平較低、一些機構淨流出和貨幣換算的負面影響，這部分被我們的 Spider ETF 業務的 220 億美元淨流入所抵消。與上一季度相比，AUM 的增長主要是由於季度末市場水平較高。 ETF淨流入和貨幣換算的積極影響，被現金淨流出部分抵消。

Turning to Slide 8. On the left side of the page, you'll see fourth quarter total servicing fees down 13% year-on-year, largely driven by lower average market levels, lower client activity adjustments and flows normal pricing headwinds and the negative impact of currency translation, partially offset by net new business. Excluding the impact of the currency translation, servicing fees were down 10% year-on-year. Sequentially, total servicing fees were down 1%, primarily as a result of the client activity adjustments and flows. On the bottom panel of this page, we've included some sales performance indicators which highlight the good business momentum we again saw in the quarter. As you can see, AUC/A wins in the fourth quarter totaled a solid $434 billion, driven by strong broad-based traditional wins across client segments and regions including expanding relationships with existing Alpha clients. At quarter end, AUC/A won, but yet to be installed, totaled $3.6 trillion with Alpha representing a healthy portion which again reflects the unique value proposition of our strategy.

轉到幻燈片 8。在頁面左側，您會看到第四季度總服務費同比下降 13%，這主要是由於平均市場水平下降、客戶活動調整減少和流量正常定價逆風以及貨幣換算的負面影響，部分被淨新業務抵消。剔除貨幣換算的影響，服務費同比下降 10%。環比而言，總服務費下降了 1%，這主要是由於客戶活動的調整和流動。在此頁面的底部面板上，我們包含了一些銷售業績指標，這些指標突出了我們在本季度再次看到的良好業務勢頭。正如您所看到的，第四季度 AUC/A 的贏利總額達到了 4340 億美元，這得益於跨客戶群和地區的廣泛的傳統贏利，包括擴大與現有 Alpha 客戶的關係。在季度末，AUC/A 贏得但尚未安裝，總計 3.6 萬億美元，其中 Alpha 代表健康部分，這再次反映了我們戰略的獨特價值主張。

Turning to Slide 9. Fourth quarter management fees were $457 million, down 14% year-on-year, primarily reflecting lower average market levels and the negative impact of currency translation, which represented about 2 percentage point headwind. Quarter-on-quarter, management fees were down 3%, largely due to equity and fixed income market headwinds. As you can see on the bottom right of the slide, notwithstanding the difficult and uncertain macroeconomic backdrop in the year, our franchise remains well positioned as evidenced by our continued strong business momentum. In ETFs, we saw solid full year net inflows in the U.S. with continued momentum in market share gains in despite of low-cost equity and fixed income segments. In our institutional business, there's a continued momentum in defined contribution with $48 billion of inflows in the full year, including target date franchise net inflows of $21 billion, offset by industry-wide outflows in institutional index products. In our cash franchise, we still gained 60 basis points of market share in money market funds in 2022, even though first half inflows reversed in the fourth quarter.

轉到幻燈片 9。第四季度管理費為 4.57 億美元，同比下降 14%，主要反映了較低的平均市場水平和貨幣換算的負面影響，這代表了約 2 個百分點的逆風。管理費環比下降 3%，主要是由於股票和固定收益市場的逆風。正如您在幻燈片右下角看到的那樣，儘管今年宏觀經濟背景艱難且不確定，但我們持續強勁的業務勢頭證明了我們的特許經營權仍然處於有利地位。在 ETF 中，我們看到美國全年淨流入穩健，儘管存在低成本股票和固定收益部分，但市場份額繼續保持增長勢頭。在我們的機構業務中，定額供款持續保持勢頭，全年流入 480 億美元，其中包括 210 億美元的目標日期特許經營淨流入，被機構指數產品的全行業流出所抵消。在我們的現金業務中，我們在 2022 年的貨幣市場基金市場份額仍然增加了 60 個基點，儘管上半年資金流入在第四季度出現逆轉。

On Slide 10, you see the strength of our diverse revenue growth engines with both FX trading services and software and processing up double-digit teens year-on-year in a difficult year. Relative to the period a year ago, fourth quarter FX trading services revenue ex notables was up 15%, primarily reflecting higher FX spreads, partially offset by lower FX volumes. Our global FX franchise was able to effectively monetize the less liquid market environment, which was driven by sharp moves in the U.S. dollar Sequentially, FX trading services revenue ex notables was up 8%, mainly due to higher direct and indirect revenue. Securities finance performance in the fourth quarter was more muted with revenues up 1% year-on-year. Sequentially, revenues were down 6%, mainly reflecting downward pressure on spreads due to lower special activity and year-end risk of activity by clients.

在幻燈片 10 上，您可以看到我們多樣化的收入增長引擎的實力，包括外匯交易服務和軟件，以及在困難的一年中同比處理兩位數的青少年。與去年同期相比，第四季度不包括知名人士的外匯交易服務收入增長了 15%，主要反映了更高的外匯利差，部分被較低的外匯交易量所抵消。我們的全球外匯特許經營權能夠有效地將流動性較低的市場環境貨幣化，這是由美元的急劇波動推動的。隨後，外匯交易服務收入（不包括知名人士）增長了 8%，這主要是由於直接和間接收入增加。第四季度證券金融業務表現較為平淡，收入同比增長 1%。隨後，收入下降了 6%，主要反映了由於客戶的特殊活動和年底活動風險較低而導致的利差下行壓力。

Fourth quarter software and processing fees were up 16% year-on-year and 17% sequentially, primarily driven by higher front office software and data revenues associated with CRD which were up 28% year-on-year and 25% sequentially. Lending fees for the quarter were down 10% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and flat quarter-on-quarter. Finally, other fee revenue of $18 million in the fourth quarter was flattish year-on-year and up $23 million quarter-on-quarter, largely due to the absence of negative market-related adjustments.

第四季度軟件和處理費用同比增長 16%，環比增長 17%，這主要是由於與 CRD 相關的前台軟件和數據收入增加，同比增長 28%，環比增長 25%。本季度貸款費用同比下降 10%，主要是由於產品結構的變化和環比持平。最後，第四季度其他費用收入為 1800 萬美元，同比持平，環比增長 2300 萬美元，這主要是由於沒有進行與市場相關的負面調整。

Moving to Slide 11. On the left panel, you'll see fourth quarter front office software and data revenue increased 28% year-on-year, primarily driven by multiple on-premise renewals and continued growth in software-enabled revenue associated with new client implementations and client conversions to our cloud-based SaaS platform environment. Turning to some of the front office and Alpha business metrics on the right panel. The $21 million of new bookings in the quarter was once again well diversified across client segments, including asset owners, wealth and private markets as well as across asset classes, particularly in fixed income. Front-office revenue backlog and pipeline remains healthy, giving us confidence in the future growth of this business. As for Alpha, we are pleased to report 2 new Alpha mandate wins this quarter in the insurance and asset owner client segments.

轉到幻燈片 11。在左側面板中，您會看到第四季度前台軟件和數據收入同比增長 28%，這主要是由於多次內部續訂以及與新產品相關的軟件支持收入的持續增長。客戶端實施和客戶端轉換到我們基於雲的 SaaS 平台環境。轉向右側面板上的一些前台和 Alpha 業務指標。本季度 2100 萬美元的新預訂再次在客戶群中實現了多元化，包括資產所有者、財富和私人市場以及資產類別，特別是在固定收益方面。前台收入積壓和管道保持健康，使我們對這項業務的未來增長充滿信心。至於 Alpha，我們很高興地報告本季度在保險和資產所有者客戶領域贏得了兩項新的 Alpha 授權。

Now turning to Slide 12. Fourth quarter NII increased 63% year-on-year and 20% sequentially to $791 million. The year-on-year increase was largely due to higher short-and long-term market interest rates and proactive balance sheet positioning, partially offset by lower deposits. We have a well-constructed balance sheet, including both U.S. and foreign client deposits, a scale sponsored repo franchise and high-quality loan and investment portfolio that was consciously configured to benefit from rising global rates. Sequentially, the increase in NII performance was primarily driven by higher global market rates working through our balance sheet.

現在轉到幻燈片 12。第四季度 NII 同比增長 63%，環比增長 20%，達到 7.91 億美元。同比增長主要是由於較高的短期和長期市場利率以及積極的資產負債表定位，部分被較低的存款所抵消。我們有一個結構良好的資產負債表，包括美國和外國客戶存款、規模贊助的回購特許經營權和高質量的貸款和投資組合，這些組合被有意識地配置為從全球利率上升中受益。因此，NII 業績的增長主要是由通過我們的資產負債表運作的更高的全球市場利率推動的。

On the right of the slide, we show our average balance sheet during the fourth quarter. Year-on-year, average assets declined 6% and increased 3% sequentially, primarily due to deposit levels as well as currency translation impacts. The U.S. client deposit beta, excluding some new deposit initiatives was about 65% to 70% during the fourth quarter. Foreign deposit betas for the quarter were much lower in the 20% to 50% range depending on currency. Our international footprint continues to be an advantage. Total average deposits were up sequentially. We saw a sequential quarter reduction in noninterest-bearing deposits of 5%, which was more than offset by higher NII-accretive interest-bearing deposits that will help support high-quality client loan growth and selective expansion of the investment portfolio.

在幻燈片的右側，我們展示了第四季度的平均資產負債表。與去年同期相比，平均資產下降 6%，環比增長 3%，這主要是由於存款水平和貨幣換算的影響。第四季度，美國客戶存款貝塔（不包括一些新的存款計劃）約為 65% 至 70%。根據貨幣的不同，本季度的外國存款貝塔係數要低得多，在 20% 到 50% 的範圍內。我們的國際足跡仍然是一個優勢。平均存款總額環比上升。我們看到無息存款連續一個季度減少 5%，這被更高的 NII 增值生息存款所抵消，這將有助於支持高質量的客戶貸款增長和投資組合的選擇性擴張。

Turning to Slide 13. Fourth quarter expenses, excluding notable items, were once again proactively managed in light of the tough fee revenue environment and flat year-on-year or up approximately 3% adjusted for currency translation. We have been carefully executing on our continued productivity and optimization savings efforts, which generated approximately $90 million in year-on-year gross savings for the quarter were approximately $320 million for 2022, achieving near the top end of our full year expense optimization guidance of 3% to 4%. These savings enabled us to drive positive operating leverage and pretax margin expansion which while partially offsetting continued wage inflation headwinds and continued investments in strategic parts of the company, including Alpha, private markets, technology and operations automation.

轉到幻燈片 13。鑑於艱難的費用收入環境，第四季度支出（不包括重要項目）再次得到積極管理，同比持平或因貨幣換算調整後增長約 3%。我們一直在認真執行我們持續的生產力和優化節省的努力，該季度產生了約 9000 萬美元的同比總節省，到 2022 年約為 3.2 億美元，接近我們全年費用優化指導的最高端3% 到 4%。這些節省使我們能夠推動積極的經營槓桿和稅前利潤率擴張，同時部分抵消持續的工資通脹逆風和對公司戰略部分的持續投資，包括 Alpha、私人市場、技術和運營自動化。

On a line-by-line basis compared to 4Q '21, Compensation and employee benefits were down 1% as the impact of currency translation and lower incentive compensation was partially offset by higher salary increases associated with nearly 6% wage inflation and higher headcount. Headcount increased 9%, primarily in our global hubs as we added operations, personnel to support growth areas such as Alpha and private market, invested in technology talent and in-source certain functions. There was also a portion of the headcount increase associated with some hiring catch-up post-COVID. We expect headcount to increase more modestly in 2023.

與 21 年第 4 季度相比，薪酬和員工福利下降了 1%，因為貨幣換算和較低的激勵薪酬的影響被近 6% 的工資通脹和更高的員工人數帶來的更高的加薪部分抵消了。員工人數增加了 9%，主要是在我們的全球中心，因為我們增加了業務、人員以支持 Alpha 和私人市場等增長領域，投資於技術人才並內包某些職能。還有一部分員工人數增加與 COVID 後的一些招聘追趕有關。我們預計 2023 年員工人數將溫和增長。

Information Systems and communications expenses were down 5% due to benefits from our in-sourcing efforts and continued vendor pricing optimization, partially offset by technology and infrastructure investments. Transaction processing was up 1%, mainly reflecting higher broker fees and market data costs, partially offset by lower sub-custody costs related to lower equity market levels. Occupancy was down 17%, largely due to an episodic lease-backed real estate transaction associated with the sale of our data centers, which was worth approximately $12 million. And other expenses were up 12%, primarily reflecting higher professional fees and travel costs.

由於我們的內包工作和持續的供應商定價優化帶來的好處，信息系統和通信費用下降了 5%，部分被技術和基礎設施投資所抵消。交易處理增長了 1%，主要反映了更高的經紀人費用和市場數據成本，部分被與較低的股票市場水平相關的較低的分託管成本所抵消。入住率下降了 17%，這主要是由於與我們的數據中心銷售相關的間歇性租賃支持房地產交易，該交易價值約 1200 萬美元。其他費用增長了 12%，主要反映了更高的專業費用和差旅費用。

Moving to Slide 14. On the left side of the slide, we show the evolution of our CET1 and Tier 1 leverage ratios followed by our capital trends on the right of the slide. As you can see, we continue to navigate the operating environment with strong capital levels relative to our requirements. At quarter end, standardized CET1 ratio of 13.6% increased 40 basis points quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by episodically lower RWA, partially offset by the resumption of share repurchases in the quarter. With respect to RWAs, it's worth noting that we saw unusually low RWAs this quarter worth about $10 billion, largely driven by our markets businesses and some specific currency factors. We would anticipate a similar amount of normalization of RWA in the $10 billion to $15 billion range going into first quarter.

轉到幻燈片 14。在幻燈片的左側，我們展示了我們的 CET1 和一級槓桿率的演變，隨後是我們在幻燈片右側的資本趨勢。正如您所看到的，我們繼續在相對於我們的要求而言具有強大資本水平的運營環境中航行。季度末，標準化的 CET1 比率為 13.6%，環比增長 40 個基點，這主要是由於 RWA 偶發性下降，部分被本季度股票回購的恢復所抵消。關於風險加權資產，值得注意的是，本季度我們看到異常低的風險加權資產約為 100 億美元，這主要是由我們的市場業務和一些特定的貨幣因素推動的。我們預計第一季度 RWA 將在 100 億美元至 150 億美元範圍內實現類似數量的正常化。

Our Tier 1 leverage ratio of 6% at quarter end was down 40 basis points quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the resumption of share repurchases in the fourth quarter. We were quite pleased to return $1.7 billion to shareholders in the quarter, consisting of $1.5 billion for common share repurchases and $220 million in common stock dividends. Lastly, as Ron mentioned earlier, we announced this morning that our Board of Directors has authorized a new common stock repurchase program of up to $4.5 billion through the end of 2023. And as I said in December, we expect to execute this buyback at pace and get back to our target ranges for both CET1 and Tier 1 leverage market conditions and other factors dependent.

我們在季度末的 6% 的一級槓桿率環比下降 40 個基點，這主要是由於第四季度恢復了股票回購。我們很高興在本季度向股東返還 17 億美元，其中包括 15 億美元的普通股回購和 2.2 億美元的普通股股息。最後，正如 Ron 之前提到的，我們今天上午宣布，我們的董事會已批准一項新的普通股回購計劃，該計劃將在 2023 年底前實施，規模高達 45 億美元。正如我在 12 月所說，我們預計將按計劃執行此次回購回到我們針對 CET1 和 Tier 1 槓桿市場條件和其他因素的目標範圍。

Turning to Slide 15. Let me cover our full year 2023 outlook as well as provide some thoughts on the first quarter, both of which have significant potential for variability given the macro environment we're operating in. In terms of our current macro expectations, as we stand here today, we expect some point-to-point growth in global equity markets in 2023 which equates to global equity markets being down about 2 percentage points year-on-year on a full year average basis. Our rate outlook for 2023 largely aligned with the forward curve, which I would note is moving continuously. However, we currently expect to reach peak rates of 5% for Fed funds, 3.25% at the ECB and 4.5% at the Bank of England.

轉到幻燈片 15。讓我介紹一下我們的 2023 年全年展望以及對第一季度的一些想法，考慮到我們所處的宏觀環境，這兩者都有很大的可變性潛力。就我們目前的宏觀預期而言，正如我們今天站在這裡，我們預計 2023 年全球股市將出現點對點增長，這相當於全球股市全年平均同比下跌約 2 個百分點。我們對 2023 年的利率前景在很大程度上與遠期曲線一致，我會注意到它在不斷移動。然而，我們目前預計聯邦基金利率將達到 5% 的峰值，歐洲央行將達到 3.25%，英格蘭銀行將達到 4.5%。

As for currency translation, we expect the U.S. dollar to be modestly stronger than the major currencies on average, but less than what we saw last year. As such, currency translation is likely to have a 0.5 point or less impact on both revenues and expenses. In light of the macro factors I just laid out, we currently expect that full year total fee revenue will be flat to up 1% ex notable items with servicing fees likely flattish and management fees down a bit, largely due to a modest reclassification of revenue out of fees into NII.

至於貨幣換算，我們預計美元平均比主要貨幣略強，但低於去年的水平。因此，貨幣換算可能對收入和支出產生 0.5 個百分點或更少的影響。鑑於我剛才列出的宏觀因素，我們目前預計全年總費用收入將持平至增長 1%（不包括值得注意的項目），其中服務費可能持平，管理費略有下降，這主要是由於收入的適度重新分類出費用進入NII。

Regarding the first quarter of 2023, we currently expect fee revenue to be down 1% to 2% ex notable items on a sequential quarter basis, given some normalization of foreign exchange market volatility that impacts our trading business with servicing fees expected to be up 1% to 2% and management fees expect to be down 1% to 2%. We expect full year 2023 NII to be up about 20% on a year-over-year basis after a very strong 2022. This is dependent, of course, on the outcome of rate hikes and deposit mix and levels. After a significant step-up in fourth quarter '22 NII, we expect first quarter '23 to be flattish. And after the first quarter of 2023, we expect to see a slide 1% to 2% of sequentially quarterly attenuation of NII throughout the remainder of 2023, then with a stabilization expected in 2024.

關於 2023 年第一季度，我們目前預計手續費收入將環比下降 1% 至 2%，因為外匯市場波動的正常化影響了我們的交易業務，服務費預計將上漲 1 % 至 2%，管理費預計將下降 1% 至 2%。我們預計 2023 年全年 NII 將在非常強勁的 2022 年之後同比增長約 20%。當然，這取決於加息的結果以及存款組合和水平。在 22 年第四季度 NII 大幅上漲之後，我們預計 23 年第一季度將持平。在 2023 年第一季度之後，我們預計在 2023 年剩餘時間內 NII 的季度連續衰減將下滑 1% 至 2%，然後預計在 2024 年趨於穩定。

Turning to expenses. As you can see in the walk, we expect expenses ex notables will be up 3.5% to 4% on a nominal basis in 2023, driven partially by wage and inflationary pressures and continued investment in the business and our people while still driving positive operating leverage. You can also see on the [walk] that for full year 2023, we expect gross saves of approximately 3%, which will help offset inflationary pressures and variable costs and ongoing investments in areas like private markets and alpha and further automation. Regarding the first quarter of 2023, on a year-over-year basis, we expect expenses ex notable items to be up about 2%.

談到開支。正如您在步行中看到的那樣，我們預計 2023 年不包括名人的費用名義上將增長 3.5% 至 4%，部分原因是工資和通脹壓力以及對業務和員工的持續投資，同時仍推動積極的經營槓桿.您還可以在 [walk] 上看到，我們預計 2023 年全年的總節省約為 3%，這將有助於抵消通脹壓力和可變成本以及在私人市場和 alpha 等領域的持續投資以及進一步的自動化。關於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計除顯著項目外的費用同比增長約 2%。

Finally, taxes should be in 19% to 20% range for 2023. This outlook would deliver a fourth consecutive year of margin expansion and advances us towards our medium-term target goal of 30% as well as deliver positive operating leverage and strong EPS growth for our shareholders. And with that, let me hand the call back to Ron.

最後，2023 年的稅收應在 19% 至 20% 的範圍內。這一前景將實現利潤率連續第四年擴張，並推動我們實現 30% 的中期目標，並帶來積極的經營槓桿和強勁的每股收益增長為我們的股東。就這樣，讓我把電話轉回給羅恩。

Thanks, Eric. As we enter 2023, we see an uncertain environment. On the positive side, many supply chains have been repaired, the outlook for energy supply is better than anticipated, particularly in Europe and developed world inflation may have peaked. We foresee continued rising interest rates in the short term, but at a slower pace. The most significant known risks are geopolitical, including the Russia-Ukraine war, China from an economic performance and policy perspective and the United States as it approaches its debt ceiling.

謝謝，埃里克。當我們進入 2023 年時，我們看到了一個不確定的環境。積極的一面是，許多供應鏈已經修復，能源供應前景好於預期，尤其是歐洲和發達國家的通脹可能已經見頂。我們預計短期內利率將繼續上升，但速度會放緩。已知最重大的風險是地緣政治風險，包括俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭、從經濟表現和政策角度來看的中國以及接近債務上限的美國。

Turning to Slide 17. Even with another year of economic and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of us, we continue to be very clear in our strategic priorities for 2023, focusing on what we can control. We plan to deliver further growth, drive innovation and continue to enhance shareholder value as we further progress State Street towards its medium-term targets. First, we are targeting further improvements in our business growth and profitability by leveraging State Street's Alpha value proposition and enhancing its private market capabilities as we aim to become the leading investment servicer platform and enterprise outsourced solutions provider in the industry. We intend to maintain and extend our leadership positions in a number of key businesses. In Global Markets, we aim to expand wallet share as a leading provider of liquidity, financing and research solutions to investment professionals. At Global Advisors, we aim to build on our strengths in areas such as ETFs and cash, while organically accelerating growth efforts in fast-growing segments where we can win.

轉到幻燈片 17。即使我們面臨又一年的經濟和地緣政治不確定性，我們在 2023 年的戰略重點中仍然非常明確，專注於我們可以控制的事情。我們計劃進一步推動道富銀行實現其中期目標，實現進一步增長、推動創新並繼續提升股東價值。首先，我們的目標是通過利用 State Street 的 Alpha 價值主張並增強其私人市場能力，進一步改善我們的業務增長和盈利能力，因為我們的目標是成為業內領先的投資服務平台和企業外包解決方案提供商。我們打算保持和擴大我們在許多關鍵業務中的領導地位。在全球市場，我們的目標是擴大錢包份額，成為為投資專業人士提供流動性、融資和研究解決方案的領先供應商。在 Global Advisors，我們的目標是鞏固我們在 ETF 和現金等領域的優勢，同時在我們可以取勝的快速增長領域有機地加速增長努力。

Second, as we have over the past several years, we must continue to transform the way we work by driving increased productivity and efficiency throughout our organization as we build out a simplified, scalable, configurable end-to-end operating model. As we lead with client service excellence, productivity will become a core differentiator of our value proposition.

其次，正如我們在過去幾年所做的那樣，我們必須在構建簡化、可擴展、可配置的端到端運營模型時，通過提高整個組織的生產力和效率來繼續轉變我們的工作方式。隨著我們以卓越的客戶服務為先導，生產力將成為我們價值主張的核心差異化因素。

Third, we must continue to build a higher-performing organization. We are strengthening execution skills and increasing accountability thereby fostering an even more results-oriented culture required for future growth. Our fourth priority is supported by and the intended outcome of the first 3 priorities and is aimed at achieving our financial goals meaning another year of positive operating leverage, margin expansion and higher returns.

三是要持續打造高效組織。我們正在加強執行技能並加強問責制，從而培養未來增長所需的更加註重結果的文化。我們的第四個優先事項得到前三個優先事項的支持和預期結果，旨在實現我們的財務目標，這意味著又一年是積極的經營槓桿、利潤率擴張和更高的回報。

To conclude, supported by our distinctive value proposition and diversified offerings as well as our ability to manage State Street through challenging environments, I believe we will be able to execute on each of these strategic priorities in 2023 as we advance towards achieving our financial goals, all while being an essential partner to the world's investors and the people they serve. And with that, operator, we can now open the call for questions.

總而言之，在我們獨特的價值主張和多元化產品以及我們在充滿挑戰的環境中管理道富的能力的支持下，我相信隨著我們朝著實現財務目標邁進，我們將能夠在 2023 年執行這些戰略重點中的每一個，同時成為全球投資者及其服務對象的重要合作夥伴。有了這個，接線員，我們現在可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr from Evercore.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

I like the NII outlook, I want to ask a little question on that. You've been a big beneficiary of higher rates. I'm curious on the deposit side, down almost 10% year-on-year in the quarter, but actually up a drop sequentially. I wanted to -- think about -- or could you tell us what you're thinking about that you have stable outlook for '23 for deposits. We've seen a lot of fear in the banks in deposit runoff and betas and attrition. So curious what gives you that confidence for the flat deposits for the year.

我喜歡 NII 的前景，我想問一個小問題。你一直是更高利率的一大受益者。我對存款方面很好奇，本季度同比下降近 10%，但實際上環比下降。我想——想想——或者你能告訴我們你在想什麼，你對 23 年的存款前景持穩定態度。我們已經看到銀行對存款流失、貝塔係數和減員有很多恐懼。很好奇是什麼讓您對今年的固定存款充滿信心。

Glenn, it's Eric. We've navigated through interest rate cycles before, right? And so we have a fair amount of internal data. And we also have, I think, an engagement with our clients that really understands the multiple avenues for them of putting their cash. Clients broadly with us have $1 trillion of cash, some of that's in deposits, some of that's in our sponsor repo program. Some of that's in our global advisers, money market complex, some of it's in our sweep products in our State Street Global Link franchise. And so what we're seeing is that clients are shifting gently their deposits between different categories. But they also need an outlet for that cash. They need an outlook for that cash at a reasonable price at a reasonable ability to move it and use it as necessary. So with that as context, I think we continue to see some expected rotation out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing, that's been happening, I think, at a reasonable pace and kind of in line more or less what we've seen before, and we expect that to continue for the next few quarters.

格倫，是埃里克。我們以前經歷過利率週期，對吧？所以我們有相當數量的內部數據。我認為，我們還與我們的客戶進行了接觸，真正了解他們投入現金的多種途徑。我們的廣泛客戶擁有 1 萬億美元的現金，其中一些是存款，一些是我們的讚助商回購計劃。其中一些在我們的全球顧問、貨幣市場綜合體中，一些在我們 State Street Global Link 特許經營權的清掃產品中。因此，我們所看到的是，客戶正在將他們的存款在不同類別之間輕輕轉移。但他們也需要現金的出路。他們需要以合理的價格以合理的能力移動和在必要時使用它來了解這些現金的前景。因此，以此為背景，我認為我們繼續看到一些預期的從無息轉向有息，我認為這一直在以合理的速度發生，並且或多或少與我們之前看到的情況一致，我們預計在接下來的幾個季度中會繼續這種情況。

At the same time, clients do have cash, especially given the risk-off environment. But in general, they all sit on cash as part of their investment planning. And we found that they're engaged with us to leave cash in our balance sheet. They like the flexibility. They like some of the pricing. And obviously, some cash comes in at noninterest-bearing, some at lower rates when it's very transactional, some at rates that are closer to market levels. And so it's an ongoing engagement with them and the visibility we have is reasonably good. It can always change. But deposits as a result, seem to be in the zone now after couple of quarters in the first half of the year of coming down a bit, seem to be flattening out. I won't say that we won't see a little bit of seasonality occasionally in January until February, we see a downtick. And then March as folks prepare for tax payments is up and then April is down. So we'll see some of that kind of movement. But on average, we expect deposits to be flattish from -- going forward into next year and through the bulk of the year.

與此同時，客戶確實有現金，尤其是在避險環境下。但總的來說，他們都將現金作為投資計劃的一部分。我們發現他們與我們合作，將現金留在我們的資產負債表中。他們喜歡靈活性。他們喜歡一些定價。很明顯，有些現金是不計息的，有些在交易性很強時利率較低，有些利率接近市場水平。因此，這是與他們的持續接觸，我們的知名度相當不錯。它總是可以改變的。但結果是，在今年上半年的幾個季度略有下降之後，存款現在似乎處於該區域，似乎正在趨於平穩。我不會說我們在 1 月份偶爾會看到一點季節性，直到 2 月份，我們會看到一個下降趨勢。然後隨著人們準備納稅的三月上升，然後四月下降。所以我們會看到一些這樣的運動。但平均而言，我們預計存款將從 - 到明年和今年大部分時間持平。

I appreciate that color. That's good. You mentioned repo. So maybe I'll just have my follow-up question. In the slides, I noticed you created this Venturi platform for peer-to-peer repo, I would love a minute to (inaudible), what is for? Who is it for? And how you get -- how that -- you will get paid for that?

我很欣賞那種顏色。那挺好的。你提到回購。所以也許我只會有我的後續問題。在幻燈片中，我注意到您為點對點回購創建了這個 Venturi 平台，我想花一分鐘時間（聽不清），這是為了什麼？它是給誰的？以及你如何獲得——如何——你將為此獲得報酬？

Sure. This is part of the, I think, innovation heritage that we have here at State Street across the franchise, but inclusive of the global markets area. We -- our sponsored repo program, which is now $100 billion in size, we started in I'm sorry, in 2005, I think, if I go back to the history books. And there's now a $100 billion franchise, right, as an example. And we do this in FX, we do this in sec lending. Venturi is a repo offering that instead of working through our balance sheet or one of the clearing corporations, which is how we do repo today actually directly connects lenders and borrowers of securities and cash. And so it's just another platform, so to speak, in other venue that clients seem to want to engage with.

當然。我認為，這是我們在 State Street 整個特許經營權中擁有的創新傳統的一部分，但包括全球市場領域。我們——我們贊助的回購計劃，現在規模為 1000 億美元，對不起，如果我回顧歷史書的話，我想是在 2005 年。舉個例子，現在有 1000 億美元的特許經營權。我們在 FX 中這樣做，我們在證券貸款中這樣做。文丘里是一種回購產品，而不是通過我們的資產負債表或清算公司之一，這是我們今天進行回購的方式，實際上直接連接證券和現金的貸方和借方。所以它只是另一個平台，可以這麼說，在客戶似乎想要參與的其他場所。

A big part of it early on is working with the asset owners, those who are -- have long booked securities and cash. And what we find is sometimes when they may want to make margin calls for -- or have margin calls, they want to raise cash without selling securities, right? And so a natural question of well, where do I repo? Do I repo through a bank structure? Or do I repo with someone who's on the other side of that trade, right, who actually wants to lend against securities. And so we find that there are counterparties on the other side of that trade, who would be interested in do that.

早期的很大一部分是與資產所有者合作，這些資產所有者 - 長期預訂證券和現金。我們發現有時當他們可能想要發出追加保證金通知時——或者有追加保證金通知時，他們想在不出售證券的情況下籌集現金，對吧？所以一個自然的問題是，我在哪裡回購？我是否通過銀行結構進行回購？或者我是否與交易另一方的人回購，對，他實際上想藉出證券。所以我們發現交易的另一方有交易對手，他們有興趣這樣做。

And what Venturi does is it actually connects borrowers and lenders with direct access to one another. So they have both the underlying collateral as the stabilizing force. And then they have the counterparty rating. And with different counterparties, you get slightly different pricing and sometimes that flow-through is actually positive and quite appealing both to the lenders and borrowers. So that's a little bit of it in a nutshell. We're like to grow it to some amount during the course of the year, early returns are positive. But it's -- I'll put it in a bucket of innovation and how to connect folks in the capital markets, but connect folks who our core clients and provide additional services for them.

而文丘里所做的是，它實際上將藉款人和貸款人直接聯繫在一起。所以他們既有基礎抵押品作為穩定力量。然後他們有交易對手評級。對於不同的交易對手，您會得到略有不同的定價，有時這種流通實際上是積極的，並且對貸方和借款人都非常有吸引力。簡而言之，這就是其中的一點點。我們希望在這一年中將其增長到一定程度，早期回報是積極的。但它 - 我將把它放在創新的桶中，以及如何連接資本市場的人們，但連接我們的核心客戶並為他們提供額外服務的人。

Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Okay. One follow-up question on NII and then a question on expenses. Just a follow-up question on NII. Eric, I just wanted to make sure I understood the cadence, the pace that you are suggesting NII should follow. I know you used the word attenuate, but we had a debate over here as to which way attenuate was going to traject. So sorry to ask the ticky-tacky, but appreciate it.

好的。一個關於 NII 的後續問題，然後是一個關於費用的問題。只是關於 NII 的後續問題。埃里克，我只是想確保我理解節奏，你建議 NII 應該遵循的節奏。我知道你用了衰減這個詞，但我們在這裡爭論過衰減的軌跡。很抱歉問這個棘手的問題，但很感激。

That's all right. But we want to be transparent and sometimes language always matters, as you say. Our perspective is we've got a very nice step-off point from fourth quarter NII. We said we'd be roughly flattish into the first quarter. And then we expect it to trend downwards, so attenuate downward, let's say, 1% to 2% for the next few quarters. Just as you see a tailwind of interest rates creating a positive but you see that continued rotation out of net interest bearing deposits being a headwind. And the net of that is down in NII. We think 1% to 2% for a couple of quarters. And then towards the end of the year and into 2024, we see rough stabilization partly because we've kind of burned out on the noninterest-bearing rotation, and then we get to a more stabilized area. But all in, we expect full year NII be up about 20% year-over-year, and we'll take it from there.

沒關係。但我們希望保持透明，正如您所說，有時語言總是很重要。我們的觀點是，從第四季度的 NII 開始，我們已經有了一個非常好的起點。我們說我們將在第一季度大致持平。然後我們預計它會呈下降趨勢，因此在接下來的幾個季度中會下降 1% 到 2%。正如你看到利率的順風創造了積極因素，但你看到淨生息存款的持續輪換是逆風。 NII 中的網絡已經下降。我們認為幾個季度為 1% 到 2%。然後到今年年底和 2024 年，我們看到大致穩定，部分原因是我們已經對無息輪換感到厭倦，然後我們進入了一個更穩定的區域。但總而言之，我們預計全年 NII 同比增長約 20%，我們將從那裡開始。

Got it. Yes. No, that's helpful. And then on the expense side, I know you mentioned that the benefit of the actions you've taken, am I right, $100 million run rate. I just wanted to understand when that comes into the 2023, is that immediate in 1Q? Or is that something that comes in over time? Just that would be helpful.

知道了。是的。不，那很有幫助。然後在費用方面，我知道你提到了你所採取的行動的好處，我是對的，1 億美元的運行率。我只是想了解 2023 年什麼時候開始，第一季度會立即發生嗎？還是隨著時間的推移會出現這種情況？那樣會有幫助。

Yes. Roughly about half of that comes in, in '23. The payback on most of these actions is about 5 quarters. So roughly half comes in on a fiscal 2023 basis. And then we'll hit the run rate, I think, within quarters, whatever, 6-ish or something after these actions, most of these actions are in the next few let's call it the next quarter, the run rate then builds to $100 million. So good payback and the kind of actions we want to keep taking in this kind of environment.

是的。其中大約一半來自 23 年。大多數這些行動的回報約為 5 個季度。因此，大約一半是在 2023 財年的基礎上計算的。然後我們將達到運行率，我認為，在這些行動之後的幾個季度內，無論如何，6-ish 或其他什麼，這些行動中的大多數都在接下來的幾個讓我們稱之為下一個季度，運行率然後建立到 100 美元百萬。如此好的回報以及我們希望在這種環境中繼續採取的那種行動。

Yes. So your point, that was my final follow-up, which was, do you feel this is the extent or if for whatever reason, top line disappoints based on macro not working out or what have you? Is there more that you would consider doing going forward?

是的。所以你的意思是，那是我最後的跟進，你覺得這是程度還是出於某種原因，頂線令人失望基於宏觀沒有工作或者你有什麼？您以後還會考慮做更多的事情嗎？

Betsy, it's Ron. Maybe I'll take that. I mean, we've obviously got a pattern of investments that we're intending to execute. We've also got an ongoing program in place that we've really had running now since 2019. So we certainly -- if the environment were to change materially, we would think about those investments. We also think about being more aggressive. I mean, we have more or less in the background, continue to take a lot of gross expense out of the system every year, we see an ongoing ability to do that, but we also want to keep investing in the business. So there is a balance there. But to the extent to which things started to go south in an unanticipated way, I mean we do have levers.

貝琪，是羅恩。也許我會接受那個。我的意思是，我們顯然已經有了一種我們打算執行的投資模式。我們還有一個正在進行的計劃，自 2019 年以來我們一直在運行。所以我們當然 - 如果環境發生重大變化，我們會考慮這些投資。我們還考慮更具侵略性。我的意思是，我們或多或少在後台，每年繼續從系統中扣除大量總費用，我們看到了這樣做的持續能力，但我們也希望繼續投資於業務。所以那裡有一個平衡。但就事情開始以意想不到的方式向南發展的程度而言，我的意思是我們確實有槓桿。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I was wondering if we -- if you had any kind of just -- well, post-game thoughts -- post the BBH decision. And within that, you acknowledged and put forth this $4.5 billion capital plan. How we think about just your commitment to that now as opposed to whatever thoughts you might have about acquisitions going forward?

我想知道我們是否 - 如果你有任何一種 - 好吧，賽后想法 - 發布 BBH 決定。其中，您承認並提出了這項 45 億美元的資本計劃。我們如何考慮您現在對此的承諾，而不是您對未來收購的任何想法？

Ken, I mean, as we've always said, we've got a very clear strategy and M&A is not a strategy. M&A is a way to help execute a strategy to move it faster to enable it to get further than what's anticipated. But it's not a strategy by itself. We are very comfortable with our organic strategy. BBH was a scale enhancing acquisition that we would have liked to have done, but it doesn't materially change. In fact, it doesn't change at all our strategy. So at this point, where we sit, we have a strategy that we like. We have a strategy that we're executing against. There are some big milestones that we're confident we're going to be delivering on in 2023. And therefore, we are committed to that share buyback.

肯，我的意思是，就像我們一直說的那樣，我們有一個非常清晰的戰略，併購不是戰略。併購是一種幫助執行戰略的方法，可以更快地推進戰略，使其比預期走得更遠。但這本身並不是一種策略。我們對我們的有機戰略感到非常滿意。 BBH 是我們希望完成的規模擴大收購，但它並沒有實質性改變。事實上，它根本沒有改變我們的策略。所以在這一點上，我們坐在那裡，我們有一個我們喜歡的策略。我們有一個我們正在執行的戰略。我們有信心在 2023 年實現一些重大里程碑。因此，我們致力於股票回購。

Okay. Great. And then on servicing fees, can you help us understand in your flat to plus 1, what's the impact of the BlackRock ETF deconversion? Where are we in that process? And how much, if any, has already been recognized of that expected revenue attrition at this point?

好的。偉大的。然後關於服務費，您能否幫助我們了解您的單位加 1，貝萊德 ETF 去轉換的影響是什麼？我們在那個過程中處於什麼位置？在這一點上，有多少（如果有的話）已經確認了預期的收入減少？

Yes, I think maybe just to answer that in the various components. I think you saw the BlackRock transition begin at the end of last year was $10 million in the quarter, sort of, call it, a $40 million run rate. That continues to transition out in '23 and in '24, there's obviously just a natural schedule that you expect that we've worked closely with them on. And so it'll impact our servicing fees during '23, during '24 and into '25, just when you think about the year-on-year comparison basis. I think if you want to model it out broadly, we've said in our last regulatory filing, we said it was worth about 2 percentage of fees as of the December 31 point that we just crossed. It's now about 1.7% of fees.

是的，我想也許只是在各個組件中回答這個問題。我想你看到貝萊德在去年年底開始的轉型在本季度是 1000 萬美元，可以稱之為 4000 萬美元的運行率。這種情況在 23 年和 24 年繼續過渡，顯然您希望我們與他們密切合作，這是一個自然的時間表。因此，這將影響我們在 23 年、24 年和 25 年期間的服務費，就在您考慮同比比較基礎時。我想如果你想廣泛地模擬它，我們在上一份監管文件中說過，我們說截至我們剛剛跨越的 12 月 31 日，它的價值約為費用的 2%。現在大約是費用的 1.7%。

And I'll let you sort of build it from there. But it's included in our forecast. It will continue to be included in our forecast. We think about net new business, right? We've got to sell. We always have a bit of attrition, and we'll -- we want to continue to be net ahead. And as you've seen us in the last couple of years, we've been net positive with net organic growth broadly. And then with BlackRock, specifically, they continue to be a very important client of ours. We have continued and kept a good amount of business that we do with them. We're strong providers for them in alternatives, which is growing quickly. And we've also been awarded new business over the last year. And so that will just -- I think it will just be part of the outlook that I give you as we go forward.

我會讓你從那裡開始構建它。但它包含在我們的預測中。它將繼續包含在我們的預測中。我們考慮淨新業務，對嗎？我們必須賣掉。我們總是有一些消耗，我們會 - 我們希望繼續淨領先。正如你在過去幾年看到的那樣，我們在廣泛的淨有機增長方面一直是淨積極的。然後是貝萊德，特別是，他們仍然是我們非常重要的客戶。我們繼續並保留了與他們開展的大量業務。我們是他們在替代品方面的強大供應商，這種替代品正在迅速增長。去年我們還獲得了新業務。因此，這將只是 - 我認為這只是我在我們前進時給你的前景的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Blostein from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

Maybe just to follow-up on Ken's last point around servicing fees. I guess if you take your run rate servicing fees at the end of the year, it still implies a pretty wide gap versus where you guys expect to end for 2023. So maybe just provide a little bit more granularity where the ramp is going to come from. So I know equity market is 1 thing, and you guys are assuming, I think, 10-ish-percent growth in global equity, so that certainly helps. But off of the kind of $4.8 billion run rate that you exited that to get to, I don't know, $5.1 billion, that's a 6% growth that's still wider than we've seen in the past. So I'm just curious whether it's new business or something else that you see on the horizon that will help you bridge that gap.

也許只是為了跟進 Ken 關於服務費的最後一點。我想如果你在年底計算你的運行率服務費，它仍然意味著與你們預計 2023 年結束時的差距相當大。所以也許只是提供更多的粒度來說明斜坡的到來從。所以我知道股票市場是一回事，我認為你們假設全球股票增長 10%，所以這肯定有幫助。但是，從你退出的那種 48 億美元的運行率來看，我不知道，51 億美元，這是一個 6% 的增長，仍然比我們過去看到的要寬。所以我很好奇是新業務還是您在地平線上看到的其他東西可以幫助您彌合這一差距。

Yes. Alex, if you -- I think I tend to spend a little more time on the full year to full year kind of servicing fees, it sounds like you're modeling the last 4 quarters and then the next 4 quarters, which obviously model as well, and we have in our budget. It's really a combination of factors, right? So there is -- on a -- if you start with fourth quarter of '22 and then work forward, we expect some appreciation in equity markets. We'll see if that plays out, and we'll obviously stay in touch with you all. We think that will be a tailwind. We think client flows and activity, in particular, should not be a headwind like it was in 2022, maybe neutral, maybe a positive just as clients have adapted to this new environment. And so we see the new year -- this new year as a time when they're going to be trading, investing building positions. So we'll see if that plays out, that will be part of it.

是的。亞歷克斯，如果你——我想我傾向於在全年到全年的服務費上多花一點時間，聽起來你在模擬最後 4 個季度，然後是接下來的 4 個季度，這顯然是模擬的好吧，我們有預算。這真的是多種因素的結合，對吧？因此，如果你從 22 年第四季度開始，然後繼續前進，我們預計股市會有所升值。我們會看看是否成功，我們顯然會與大家保持聯繫。我們認為這將是順風。我們認為，尤其是客戶流量和活動不應像 2022 年那樣成為不利因素，可能是中性的，也可能是積極的，因為客戶已經適應了這種新環境。因此，我們將新的一年——這個新的一年視為他們將要交易、投資建立頭寸的時候。所以我們會看看這是否會成功，這將是其中的一部分。

Then we have net new business. And so we do have a good pipeline both in the traditional servicing and Alpha area. And I think as part of that, we continue to mine our existing client base because the share of wallet growth can be positive there. And then finally, there's always some amount of normal pricing headwinds, but that's factored in. But you kind of have to go through those 4 areas. And remember, we're assuming some growth in equity markets on a point-to-point basis. but we'll see if that plays out.

然後我們有淨新業務。因此，我們在傳統服務和 Alpha 領域都擁有良好的管道。我認為，作為其中的一部分，我們將繼續挖掘我們現有的客戶群，因為那裡的錢包增長份額可能是正的。最後，總會有一些正常的定價逆風，但這是考慮在內的因素。但你必須經歷這 4 個領域。請記住，我們假設股票市場在點對點基礎上有所增長。但我們會看看是否會成功。

I got you. All right. That's helpful. Maybe just a follow-up around the balance sheet strategy. I heard the NII guidance, the deposit commentary all makes sense. When it comes to the tailwinds from sort of repricing the fixed portfolio, the fixed securities portfolio, can you help us frame what the roll-on, roll-off dynamic looks like today? And also whether or not there are some more opportunistic actions you guys might take like we've seen with both [BK] and Northern over the last month or so. With respect to just maybe reaccelerate some of the lower-yielding securities roll off into something that might be a little more attractive here.

我接到你了。好的。這很有幫助。也許只是圍繞資產負債表策略的後續行動。聽了NII的指導，存款評論都有道理。當談到重新定價固定投資組合、固定證券投資組合的順風時，你能幫助我們構建今天的滾動、滾動動態嗎？還有你們是否會採取一些更多的機會主義行動，就像我們在過去一個月左右的時間裡看到的 [BK] 和 Northern 一樣。關於可能會重新加速一些收益率較低的證券轉變成在這裡可能更具吸引力的證券。

Yes. Let me describe it as follows. The investment portfolio has an average duration of a bit over 2.5 years, so call it average maturity of 5 years. And so you go through the math, and that means about 20% of it rolls on, rolls off in a typical year. It will move around a bit. I think what we found, and that's invested across the curve, it's invested in various currencies, so there's a mix. So you tend to get as you have roll-off, roll-on somewhere between 1%, 1.5% to sometimes 2.5% tailwind for that particular quarter of the amounts that are rolling off and rolling on. And so that's what's actually been one of the factors that's in billing the yields and the yield improvement on the profile and both how it was designed and what we're pleased to see.

是的。讓我描述如下。投資組合的平均期限為 2.5 年多一點，因此稱之為 5 年平均期限。所以你通過數學計算，這意味著大約 20% 的資金在典型的一年中滾動，滾動。它會移動一點。我認為我們發現的是跨曲線投資，它投資於各種貨幣，所以存在混合。因此，對於滾動和滾動的特定四分之一的數量，您往往會在滾動時獲得 1%、1.5% 到有時 2.5% 的順風。因此，這實際上是計算收益率和收益率改善的因素之一，以及它的設計方式和我們很高興看到的內容。

So that will be a gentle tailwind assuming 5-year rates stay more or less where they are and European rates continue to float up. And so we'll just have to -- that will be one of the tailwinds that we see. In terms of more dramatic action, we obviously always think about what we might do. What we've noticed is that if you have high risk-weighted asset positions in your risk-weighted asset-intensive positions in your portfolio, then what happens, you could take the loss, you reinvest and it helps accelerate a buyback, right? That's why I think a number of players are doing that. Doing the -- just the -- for vanilla instruments, treasuries, agencies, government-guaranteed securities, there's -- I think the benefits are a little closer to a push. We could take some losses through the P&L. They're already in the equity accounts through AOCI you put on NII in the future. I think that's just moving around of the financials, and we just don't find that that's a particularly compelling trade to do.

因此，假設 5 年期利率或多或少保持在當前水平並且歐洲利率繼續上浮，這將是一個溫和的順風。所以我們只需要 - 這將是我們看到的順風之一。就更具戲劇性的動作而言，我們顯然總是在思考我們可能會做什麼。我們注意到的是，如果您在投資組合中的風險加權資產密集型頭寸中擁有高風險加權資產頭寸，那麼會發生什麼，您可以承擔損失，進行再投資，這有助於加速回購，對吧？這就是為什麼我認為許多玩家正在這樣做。為香草工具、國債、機構、政府擔保證券做——只是——我認為好處更接近於推動。我們可以通過損益表承擔一些損失。他們已經通過你將來放在 NII 上的 AOCI 進入了權益賬戶。我認為這只是財務狀況的變化，我們只是覺得這不是一項特別引人注目的交易。

We'll always evaluate well. So we see if we have specific positions that might need some adjustment. But we don't see that as particularly compelling. It's not really compelling economically. And the financial benefits you guys can kind of model out either way. And so we -- I think we're pleased with the ability to continue to manage the portfolio in line with our current processes, and they've been numerous, right? The NII is up significantly this past year and up another 20% next year, and we've got a tailwind and it -- I think it bodes well for where we are and where we're going.

我們總會好好評價的。所以我們看看我們是否有可能需要調整的特定位置。但我們認為這並不特別引人注目。這在經濟上並不是很引人注目。你們可以通過任何一種方式模擬出經濟利益。所以我們 - 我認為我們很高興能夠繼續根據我們當前的流程管理投資組合，而且他們已經很多了，對吧？ NII 在過去的一年里大幅上漲，明年又上漲了 20%，我們有一個順風——我認為這預示著我們所處的位置和我們要去的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Bedell from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

And just on the net interest revenue outlook for '23. Eric, can you talk a little bit about what you view as sensitivity to say if we had rate cuts in the back half of the year? I don't think that's assumed in your outlook, but just if you can talk about that dynamic and whether you think that would just be offset by reducing the deposit beta? And then also on the foreign deposit beta that you talked about, which is much better than U.S. Do you expect that to continue? Or do you see incremental foreign deposit betas moving higher from here?

以及 23 年的淨利息收入前景。埃里克，如果我們在今年下半年降息，你能談談你認為敏感的事情嗎？我不認為這在你的前景中是假設的，但如果你能談談這種動態以及你是否認為這會通過減少存款貝塔來抵消？然後還有你談到的外國存款貝塔，它比美國好得多。你希望這種情況繼續下去嗎？或者您是否看到增量外國存款貝塔值從這裡走高？

Yes. Let me do it in reverse order. The U.S. versus foreign currency betas in our experience, this cycle, prior cycles, do tend to run at different levels, partly because the U.S. has the structure of noninterest-bearing versus interest-bearing deposits, right? So the client deposit betas are in a subset of the total and partly because the international markets just operate a bit differently how we're paid and how that -- how those expectations have been set over, I'll call it, decades for the industry, operate differently.

是的。讓我按相反的順序來做。根據我們的經驗，美國與外幣的貝塔，這個週期，之前的周期，確實傾向於在不同的水平上運行，部分原因是美國有無息存款和有息存款的結構，對吧？因此，客戶存款貝塔只佔總數的一部分，部分原因是國際市場的運作方式略有不同，我們的支付方式和支付方式——這些期望是如何被設定的，我稱之為，幾十年來行業，運作方式不同。

So I think for the -- as we look into the next few quarters, we think the U.S. client deposit betas ex any new money that we bring in on an initiative basis is going to be in that 65% to 70% and the international betas, we think will continue in the 20% to 50% range when you look at euros, pound sterling, Canadian dollars, Aussie dollars and some of the other currencies. So we think they're kind of in the -- they're going to be in this zone and that gives us some ability to continue to take advantage of the interest rate increases.

所以我認為 - 當我們展望未來幾個季度時，我們認為美國客戶存款貝塔扣除我們主動引入的任何新資金將在 65% 到 70% 之間，而國際貝塔，我們認為當您查看歐元、英鎊、加元、澳元和其他一些貨幣時，這一比例將繼續保持在 20% 至 50% 的範圍內。所以我們認為他們有點在 - 他們將在這個區域，這使我們有能力繼續利用利率上漲。

If I then work through the other part of your question, what happens with rate costs. That's in our expectations, right? That's in the forward curves, especially for the U.S., that there could be a December cut. There's some probability there could be a cut before that.

如果我然後處理你問題的另一部分，費率成本會發生什麼。這是我們的期望，對吧？在遠期曲線中，尤其是對美國而言，可能會在 12 月降息。在那之前有可能會削減。

I think it doesn't dramatically affect because they are late in the year. The rate cuts don't dramatically affect the NII forecast, so we'll kind of take it as it goes. I do think you're -- as you're intimating, there's a bit of this offset, which is if the Fed's cutting rates, and there's probably going to be even more cash that clients keep on hand and deposits in the system, there'll probably be some offsetting impact. And obviously, with the U.S. betas higher, conveniently rate cuts actually at some point, help with the -- with NII as well. So I think there's a fair amount of -- there's a range of scenarios, let's call it, in the second half of next year. And so my guess is, Brian, we're going to be having this conversation often with you. And we'll certainly keep you posted as we see some of those scenarios develop or there's more variability.

我認為這不會產生太大影響，因為它們在今年晚些時候。降息不會顯著影響 NII 的預測，所以我們會順其自然。我確實認為你 - 正如你所暗示的那樣，有一點這種抵消，即如果美聯儲降息，並且客戶手頭的現金和系統中的存款可能會更多，那裡可能會產生一些抵消影響。顯然，隨著美國貝塔係數的提高，實際上在某個時候方便地降息，也有助於 NII。所以我認為明年下半年有很多 - 有一系列的場景，我們稱之為。所以我的猜測是，布賴恩，我們將經常與您進行這種對話。當我們看到其中一些情況發展或存在更多可變性時，我們當然會及時通知您。

That's super helpful. And then just maybe on asset servicing, just maybe an update on how you're seeing the pricing headwinds fold out for this year? And also obviously, you typically do get a pricing headwind just from a mix shift towards ETFs, but maybe if you could talk about whether you think that might be set offset by some of the growth in alternatives. And then I know I think there is an expense offset to or I should say, I believe the margin is the same on ETFs versus say, mutual funds, so you again an expense offset. Maybe if you just want to confirm that.

這非常有幫助。然後也許只是關於資產服務，也許只是關於你如何看待今年定價逆風的最新消息？而且很明顯，你通常確實會因為向 ETF 的混合轉變而遇到定價逆風，但也許你可以談談你是否認為這可能會被替代品的一些增長所抵消。然後我知道我認為有一個費用抵消，或者我應該說，我相信 ETF 的保證金與共同基金的保證金是相同的，所以你又是一個費用抵消。也許如果你只是想確認一下。

Yes, Brian, I think the pricing experience that we're seeing in the industry has been stable and consistent over the last few years, and we expect it to be consistent into next year and beyond. We just have the standard because our contracts are tied to equity markets, when they roll over every 4, 5, 6 years, typically, folks are thinking whether they expect equity markets to be. They know we're going to get paid, they're going to pay us more in the coming years, and they want to share some of that. And so there's a partial pricing offset. But it's in the 2% headwind per year on servicing fees and been relatively consistent.

是的，布賴恩，我認為我們在過去幾年中在行業中看到的定價經驗一直穩定且一致，我們預計它會在明年及以後保持一致。我們只有標準，因為我們的合同與股票市場掛鉤，當它們每 4、5、6 年滾動一次時，通常人們會考慮他們是否期望股票市場如此。他們知道我們會得到報酬，他們會在未來幾年付給我們更多的錢，他們想分享其中的一部分。因此存在部分定價抵消。但它每年在服務費方面處於 2% 的逆風中，並且相對穩定。

Yes. Brian, it's Ron. The mutual fund to ETF shift, the -- I mean there's been some high-profile conversions of mutual funds to ETFs. But that's -- there's not a lot of that going on. More typically, what you're seeing is ETFs being added to lines. And yes, the economics are different. The revenues fees are lower, but also particularly when you're at scale like us, the expenses are much lower. So it's not meaningful in this overall revenue kind of guide that we're giving you.

是的。布賴恩，是羅恩。共同基金向 ETF 的轉變，我的意思是，已經有一些共同基金向 ETF 的高調轉換。但那是 - 沒有太多這樣的事情發生。更典型的是，您看到的是 ETF 被添加到產品線中。是的，經濟學是不同的。收入費用較低，但特別是當你像我們這樣規模大時，費用要低得多。因此，在我們為您提供的這種總體收入指南中，它沒有意義。

Your next question comes from the line of Brennan Hawken from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brennan Hawken。

So I'd like to start on capital. So the buyback sends a strong message. Ron, very encouraging to hear about your comments on M&A. But I wanted to clarify that the buyback is up to $4.5 billion. So does the upper end of the range there assume that you're going to see some AOCI accretion? And is the quarterly range of $120 million to $200 million still the right way to think about it, if rates are stable.

所以我想從資本開始。因此，回購發出了一個強烈的信息。羅恩，聽到您對併購的評論非常鼓舞人心。但我想澄清一下，回購高達 45 億美元。那麼，該範圍的上限是否假設您將看到一些 AOCI 增長？如果利率穩定，1.2 億美元至 2 億美元的季度範圍是否仍然是正確的思考方式。

Brennan, it's Eric. The answer is yes and yes, right? If you think about it, we forecasted just you guys just as you have earnings and coming through the P&L, AOCI in that range, $120 million to $200 million a quarter, It bounces around a little bit, and it may with movements in rates. But the (inaudible) has been good to us and will be a nice tailwind. There's some normalization of RWAs, which I mentioned into the first quarter, then there is some RWA growth in our plans because we want to continue to lend more to clients and support more with their foreign exchange or hedging activity. So we'll continue to do that. And then there's the buyback. And our plan is just to at pace, get back into our range, and that authorization comfortably gets us there.

布倫南，是埃里克。答案是肯定的，是的，對吧？如果你考慮一下，我們預測你們只是因為你們有收益並通過損益表，AOCI 在這個範圍內，每季度 1.2 億至 2 億美元，它會稍微反彈，並且可能會隨著利率的變化而變化。但是（聽不清）對我們有好處，將是一個很好的順風。我在第一季度提到了 RWA 的一些正常化，然後我們的計劃中有一些 RWA 增長，因為我們希望繼續向客戶提供更多貸款，並通過他們的外匯或對沖活動提供更多支持。所以我們會繼續這樣做。然後是回購。我們的計劃只是加快步伐，回到我們的範圍內，而授權讓我們輕鬆地到達那裡。

Okay. Excellent. And then a couple folks have touched on it before, but maybe if we think about the fee revenue, can you please update us on the impact of market moves to fee revenues and whether or not there's also a corresponding impact on the expense side to -- I'd assume there's at least some degree of impact there.

好的。出色的。然後有幾個人之前已經談到過它，但也許如果我們考慮費用收入，你能不能請你告訴我們市場變動對費用收入的影響以及是否對費用方面也有相應的影響 - - 我假設那里至少有一定程度的影響。

Yes. Let me do it this way. I think as we've been relatively consistent here and I think the 10% average change in let's call it, an increase in equity markets, right, will typically lead to about a 3% increase in servicing fees, if you have both of those on average. So that's the kind of gearing we have. It's higher on management fees, 10% higher equity and markets tend to be closer to a 5% increase in management fees. On the expense side, if I -- it moves around a bit, but I think it's a 10% average increase in equity markets probably close to, let's say, around -- with a range around 1 percentage point increase in expenses. It could be a little bit less as it kind of depends.

是的。讓我這樣做。我認為，由於我們在這里相對一致，我認為我們稱之為 10% 的平均變化，股票市場的增長，對吧，通常會導致服務費增加約 3%，如果你有這兩個一般。這就是我們擁有的那種傳動裝置。管理費更高，股票上漲 10%，而市場往往接近管理費上漲 5%。在費用方面，如果我 - 它會稍微移動，但我認為股票市場平均增長 10% 可能接近，比方說，大約 - 費用增加約 1 個百分點。視情況而定，可能會少一些。

But our sub-custodian costs are -- have a gearing towards equity markets and fixed income markets, market data, in some cases, does as well. So it could be 0.5 point, could be 1 point, and that's part of what we have in the expense walk and outlook that we've given. And in some ways, I think we're actually pleased to see that particular expense increase because that particular expense increase comes with real revenue growth. And that then delivers EBITDA and earnings growth when you bring it all together.

但我們的次級託管成本是——與股票市場和固定收益市場掛鉤，市場數據在某些情況下也是如此。所以它可能是 0.5 分，也可能是 1 分，這是我們給出的支出步數和展望的一部分。在某些方面，我認為我們實際上很高興看到特定費用的增加，因為特定費用的增加伴隨著實際收入的增長。然後，當您將所有這些結合在一起時，就會帶來 EBITDA 和收益增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Chubak from Wolfe Search.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Search 的 Steven Chubak。

So Eric, I actually have a 2 parter if you'll indulge me just on some of the NII guidance. First, I was hoping you could provide just some guardrails on your assumptions for NIB outflow given you're relatively close to the trough that we saw last cycle? And the -- for the second part, just since you alluded to NII stabilizing beyond '23, even as NIB remixing pressures abate and reinvestment tailwinds start to work through the balance sheet -- was curious why NII isn't actually growing beyond 2023? Is that a function of rate cuts, international mix? Any perspective would be really helpful.

所以埃里克，如果你只接受一些 NII 指導，我實際上有一個 2 夥伴。首先，鑑於你相對接近我們上個週期看到的低谷，我希望你能為你對 NIB 流出的假設提供一些護欄？而且 - 對於第二部分，就在你提到 NII 在 23 年後穩定，即使 NIB 重新混合壓力減弱並且再投資順風開始通過資產負債表發揮作用 - 很好奇為什麼 NII 實際上沒有在 2023 年以後增長？這是降息、國際組合的結果嗎？任何觀點都會非常有幫助。

All right. Well, the crystal balling into 2024, I got to tell you, we've got a lot of variability playing out right now, whether it's economic, whether it's central banks. And I think I know there's a lot of talk about what's happening in NII, where do we go to? And then does it what happens after we get to a peak. So I was just trying in 2024 to kind of level set that we see stability. There's a scenario where you see growth. There are scenarios where we may not. But it's hard, it's -- you're getting far out on our forecasting and predictions to be honest. So let's come back to that in the middle of the year. That will be a good conversation.

好的。好吧，進入 2024 年的水晶球，我必須告訴你，我們現在有很多變化，無論是經濟方面的，還是中央銀行方面的。我想我知道有很多關於 NII 正在發生的事情的討論，我們要去哪裡？然後在我們達到頂峰後會發生什麼。所以我只是在 2024 年嘗試達到我們認為穩定的水平。有一種情況你會看到增長。在某些情況下我們可能不會。但這很難，老實說，你離我們的預測和預測還很遠。因此，讓我們在今年年中回到這一點。那將是一次很好的談話。

In terms of noninterest bearing, you saw noninterest-bearing on average was about $44 billion this quarter. This quarter, meaning fourth quarter, it was down 5% sequentially. It's bounced around quarterly. But we see, I don't know, you could have -- off the $44 billion, you could have a $4 billion rotation out next quarter. You could see that again into the next quarter. Then it starts to -- or it could be $3 billion and then $2 billion and so on and so forth. So we're -- I think we're at this level where we've seen some amount of rotation. We think it's going to continue roughly at the pace that it's been going.

在無息方面，本季度平均無息約為 440 億美元。本季度，也就是第四季度，環比下降了 5%。它每季度反彈一次。但我們看到，我不知道，你可以 - 在 440 億美元中，你可以在下個季度輪換 40 億美元。你可以在下個季度再次看到這一點。然後它開始——或者可能是 30 億美元，然後是 20 億美元，依此類推。所以我們 - 我認為我們處於這個水平，我們已經看到了一定程度的輪換。我們認為它將大致按照它一直在進行的速度繼續進行。

So it could be anywhere between $2 billion, $3 billion and $4 billion a quarter, but you could have some changes to that. What we do think is that we'll continue to see some of it in the first half of the year, and then it just starts to slow down into the second half. And what we've done is to use that kind of base case into our modeling. And it's all factored into the 20% increase in NII that we expect for next year.

因此，每季度可能在 20 億美元、30 億美元和 40 億美元之間，但您可以對其進行一些更改。我們確實認為，我們將在今年上半年繼續看到其中的一些，然後到下半年才開始放緩。我們所做的就是將這種基本案例用於我們的建模。我們預計明年 NII 將增長 20%，這一切都已考慮在內。

That's great. In my defense, Eric, since you did talk about stabilization, I felt like I had to take advantage of that window of opportunity, but look forward to talking about it a little bit more in the middle of the year. Just one more for me on capital management. I was hoping you could just speak to or give us some insight into the cadence. Should we expect that buyback to be executed ratably or be a little bit more front-loaded here. And just given the commitment or at least early like a strong effort to optimize your capital levels, how are you scenario planning for the Basel IV proposal or update that we should be getting from the Fed early in '23.

那太棒了。在我的辯護中，埃里克，既然你確實談到了穩定性，我覺得我必須利用那個機會之窗，但期待在年中多談一點。對我來說，還有一個關於資本管理的。我希望你能談談或給我們一些關於節奏的見解。我們是否應該期望回購能夠按比例執行，或者在這裡稍微提前一些。並且只要做出承諾或至少儘早做出優化資本水平的巨大努力，您如何為我們應該在 23 年初從美聯儲獲得的巴塞爾 IV 提案或更新進行情景規劃。

Yes. All fair and it's a kind of discussion we have internally. We want to front-load the buyback. You saw us start particularly strong this past quarter. And we want some amount of front loading. On the other hand, it's actually quite stabilizing to the stock to have buybacks on a consistent basis. So I think we're -- we don't want to front load at an extreme, and we don't want to be ratably flat through the year at the extreme either because it gives, I think, it's a good kind of market practice to have some, I'll call it, front loading, but reasonable consistency in the buyback as well.

是的。很公平，這是我們內部進行的一種討論。我們想提前回購。你看到我們在上個季度開局特別強勁。我們需要一些前端加載。另一方面，在一致的基礎上回購股票實際上相當穩定。所以我認為我們 - 我們不想在極端情況下提前加載，我們也不希望在極端情況下全年持平，因為我認為這提供了一個很好的市場練習有一些，我稱之為前端加載，但在回購中也要保持合理的一致性。

I think then the goal is to get into our target range at pace. And then we'd love to operate in the middle of our range over time. That's kind of how a range is set up. But I think what we always have to do is look out on the horizon is are the economic conditions worsening, right? And so then you may be want to run close to the upper end of the range to insulate and prepare or are they particularly benign and they're particularly good uses of capital, and you might want to be at the lower end. Similarly, I think we'll learn more about Basel III and some of the changes in capital rules, maybe that comes with other changes in capital rules, we don't know. And I think later this year, we'll evaluate and that's another reason to either run towards in different areas of the range as well. So it all factors in, but I think we're quite comfortable with the direction where we want to go and then like you will -- we'll think about what's on the horizon and plan for that.

我認為目標是快速進入我們的目標範圍。然後我們很樂意隨著時間的推移在我們的範圍中間運作。這就是范圍的設置方式。但我認為我們始終要做的是展望未來，經濟狀況是否正在惡化，對吧？因此，您可能想要接近該範圍的上限以進行隔離和準備，或者它們是否特別良性並且它們對資本的利用特別好，而您可能希望處於低端。同樣，我認為我們會更多地了解巴塞爾協議 III 和資本規則的一些變化，也許伴隨著資本規則的其他變化，我們不知道。我認為今年晚些時候，我們將進行評估，這也是在該範圍的不同領域開展的另一個原因。所以這一切因素，但我認為我們對我們想要去的方向很滿意，然後就像你一樣 - 我們會考慮即將發生的事情並為此制定計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Eric, as a follow-up on the stock repurchase commentary. Did you guys -- and first I know -- and since you referenced it would be more front-end loaded. Did you guys consider an accelerated share repurchase program?

埃里克，作為股票回購評論的後續。你們有沒有——我首先知道——既然你們提到了它，它會加載更多的前端。你們考慮過加速股票回購計劃嗎？

Gerard, we did. And I think with the accelerated share repurchase program typically does is operate in such a way that the stock buybacks accelerated within the course of the quarter, right, within the 3-month period, there are typically some benefits of that. You tend to add $0.01 or around that EPS, it's interesting in a high interest rate environment, you also lose the NII benefit of the capital. So we've actually found that the ASRs tend to be a push roughly. And so we're -- we often do a more typical buyback within the available trading days in the quarter in a way that's fairly market practice as a way to return the cash and the capital to all of you.

杰拉德，我們做到了。而且我認為，加速股票回購計劃通常是以這樣一種方式運作的，即股票回購在本季度內加速，正確的，在 3 個月內，通常會有一些好處。你傾向於增加 0.01 美元或大約 EPS，這在高利率環境中很有趣，你也會失去資本的 NII 收益。所以我們實際上發現 ASR 往往是粗略的推動。所以我們 - 我們經常在本季度的可用交易日內以一種公平的市場慣例進行更典型的回購，作為一種將現金和資本返還給你們所有人的方式。

Very good. And then I know you pointed to the RWA benefit you had this quarter for the CET1 ratio. And I think you said in your slides, you're targeted range is 10% to 11%, which, of course, you're above at this time. Do you have any guidance on when you think you may reach your targeted 10% to 11% CET1 range?

非常好。然後我知道你指出了本季度 CET1 比率的 RWA 收益。我想你在幻燈片中說過，你的目標範圍是 10% 到 11%，當然，你現在高於這個範圍。對於何時可以達到 10% 至 11% 的 CET1 目標範圍，您是否有任何指導？

It will depend on -- let me say it this way. We want to return the capital at pace and I've given some bookends as to what that means. And that's, I think, a forecast you guys can build off of. And we want to get to our target range, right? We don't want to wait until, I don't know, next Christmas, right? That's not the -- that would not be at pace in my nomenclature. At the same time, there's just a range of what will move, right? If RWAs lighten again, it'll take a little longer. If they go back and we fully utilize our limits in our various businesses and areas, then it might be a little more quickly. So it's hard to pin it down, but as I said, we'd like to get to -- we'd like to execute the buyback at pace. We'd like to get back to a range -- into a range at pace and we're going to -- we're driving that direction.

這將取決於——讓我這樣說。我們希望盡快歸還資本，我已經給出了一些關於這意味著什麼的書擋。我認為，這是你們可以建立的預測。我們想達到我們的目標範圍，對嗎？我們不想等到，我不知道，下個聖誕節，對吧？那不是——在我的命名法中不會跟上步伐。同時，只有一定範圍的東西會移動，對吧？如果 RWA 再次減輕，則需要更長的時間。如果他們回去，我們充分利用我們在各個業務和領域的極限，那麼可能會快一點。所以很難確定，但正如我所說，我們希望——我們希望按節奏執行回購。我們希望回到一個範圍——以速度進入一個範圍，我們將——我們正在朝著這個方向前進。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

Well, thanks for all the answers on the cyclical factors. I wanted to ask about the structural end game, a strategic end game post Brown Brothers. And the reason I ask, I count 5 restructurings in the last 20 years. They seem to come around like the softness the Olympics. The fourth quarter is yet one more quarter with notable items, account notable items in 18 of the last 20 quarters. And I do get some of it. Like you have incredible headwinds, mutual funds, markets, technical debt. You've been reinventing yourself front-to-back, straight reprocessing, serving clients, more agile tech. And I also recognize what you said at the start that the ROE and the margin improved for a couple of years in a row.

好吧，感謝您對周期性因素的所有回答。我想問一下結構性的終局，一個戰略性的終局後布朗兄弟。我問的原因是，我數了數過去 20 年的 5 次重組。他們似乎像奧運會一樣柔軟。第四季度又是一個有顯著項目的季度，在過去 20 個季度中的 18 個季度中有顯著項目。我確實得到了一些。就像你有令人難以置信的逆風、共同基金、市場、技術債務。你一直在從前到後重塑自己，直接再加工，服務客戶，更敏捷的技術。我也明白你一開始所說的 ROE 和利潤率連續幾年有所提高。

But when I look at fee expenses, that has gone the other way. And it seems like maybe one route issue is fixed cost. So really, the question is -- kind of 3 questions. What percent of your expenses are fixed? How does that compare to the past? I'm assuming they've come down? And where would you like to take that? And then more broadly, what is the end game strategy after Brown Brothers?

但是，當我查看費用支出時，情況就相反了。似乎一個路線問題是固定成本。所以真的，問題是—— 3 個問題。你的開支中有多少是固定的？這與過去相比如何？我假設他們已經下來了？你想把它帶到哪裡？然後更廣泛地說，布朗兄弟之後的最終遊戲策略是什麼？

Yes. Let me start on that, Mike, there's a lot in there. A comment on -- I'm not going to comment on past restructurings, I'll comment on this one, right? We've made some changes to the way we organize ourselves. We talked about that back in the middle of the year. And there's some benefits we can take out of that in terms of simplifying the management structure, having a smaller number of senior managers, we're going to take advantage of that. It's consistent with simplifying our business. It creates accountability and we stand by the need have done that restructuring.

是的。讓我開始吧，邁克，裡面有很多東西。評論——我不會評論過去的重組，我會評論這個，對嗎？我們對自己的組織方式進行了一些更改。我們在年中討論過這個問題。在簡化管理結構、減少高級管理人員數量方面，我們可以從中獲得一些好處，我們將利用這一點。這與簡化我們的業務是一致的。它創造了問責制，我們支持完成重組的需要。

In terms of where do we take this business going forward, it's -- it has a lot of benefits to it. It's very tied to investment markets over time. Investment markets grow, they don't shrink. So the actual, if you will, unit pricing while the unit pricing may go down, overall pricing actually -- overall revenue is actually more times than not have the tailwind. We like that business. It's also one that is changing fundamentally from being a kind of a back office, show me the lowest price kind of thing to much more of an enterprise outsourcing business.

就我們將這項業務向前發展的方向而言，它有很多好處。隨著時間的推移，它與投資市場密切相關。投資市場會增長，不會萎縮。所以實際的，如果你願意的話，單位定價，而單位定價可能會下降，實際上整體定價 - 總收入實際上比沒有順風的次數更多。我們喜歡那筆生意。它也是一個正在從根本上改變的一種後台辦公室，向我展示價格最低的東西，更多的是企業外包業務。

We are very new in that. We're very early in that transition. And we think by far, we are the best positioned to take advantage of that in terms of the technical capabilities that we have, the people capabilities that we have, the position we have in the marketplace.

我們在這方面很新。我們處於過渡的早期階段。我們認為，到目前為止，就我們擁有的技術能力、我們擁有的人員能力以及我們在市場上的地位而言，我們最有能力利用這一優勢。

We've made initial in roads and wins in that, but there's development that we talked about that will be delivered in '23 and beyond, but a lot of it in '23 that will only help strengthen our position. So we see the end game here in terms of the core investment servicing business as being one which is much more akin to an outsourcing services business, much less susceptible to kind of these instantaneous, I'm going to put it to RFP. And it's just a stickier business. And we are very respectful and wary of our competitors because having an edge and a lead can be easily caught up on. But we -- right now, we believe we have that edge and lead, we're going to capitalize on it.

我們已經在道路上取得了初步的勝利，但我們談到了將在 23 年及以後交付的發展，但 23 年的很多發展只會有助於鞏固我們的地位。因此，就核心投資服務業務而言，我們認為這裡的最終遊戲更類似於外包服務業務，更不容易受到這些瞬間的影響，我將把它放到 RFP 中。而且這只是一項更具粘性的業務。我們非常尊重和警惕我們的競爭對手，因為擁有優勢和領先優勢很容易被趕上。但是我們 - 現在，我們相信我們擁有這種優勢和領先優勢，我們將利用它。

In the investment management business, again, similar kinds of changes there. We're seeing an increased desire for the kinds of things that we do, systematic and otherwise. Asset allocation, which we are very, very good at is now an area that everybody is talking about after literally decades of reliance on the 60-40 model, and guess what, it didn't work or it doesn't work at all time. It will lead to a lot of thinking and demand for that. So we like our businesses. We like where we are strategically.

在投資管理業務中，同樣存在類似的變化。我們看到人們越來越渴望做我們所做的事情，無論是系統的還是其他的。在依賴 60-40 模型幾十年後，我們非常非常擅長的資產配置現在是每個人都在談論的一個領域，你猜怎麼著，它沒有用，或者一直沒有用.會引發很多思考和需求。所以我們喜歡我們的企業。我們喜歡我們在戰略上所處的位置。

In terms of what's going to happen? Will there be other Brown Brothers out there. What I do think that you will see over time is an increasing number of competitors where this may not be their core business saying enough is enough. The capital requirements are -- in terms of the investment capital requirements are much too high, mostly about the technology. If it really does continue into an outsourcing kind of environment like we believe it will. It's going to put more demand to invest in the business. And if this is business 42 of your 80 business structure, you might decide you don't want to be in this business. So that's how we see it going forward.

就將要發生的事情而言？那裡會有其他布朗兄弟嗎？我確實認為隨著時間的推移你會看到越來越多的競爭對手，這可能不是他們的核心業務，說夠了就夠了。資本要求——就投資資本要求而言太高了，主要是關於技術。如果它真的像我們相信的那樣繼續進入外包環境。這將對投資該業務提出更多需求。如果這是您 80 個業務結構中的第 42 個業務，您可能會決定不想從事該業務。這就是我們對未來的看法。

That was expansive. The fixed cost part of the question, you don't report it that way, but just in rough terms, I guess. So in asset servicing, less RFPs, lowest price, this enterprise outsourcing, okay, investment management, more holistic instead of the [rogue] old model. But still as you transition, you have a certain degree of fixed costs that are tough to manage. I mean it's not quite like a brokerage firm where you reduced bonuses. So is there any way just to ballpark how much of your expenses are fixed costs? And I think they've come down from the past, you're probably trying to floor them more.

那是廣闊的。問題的固定成本部分，你不會那樣報告，但我想只是粗略的。所以在資產服務方面，更少的 RFP，最低的價格，這個企業外包，好的，投資管理，更全面而不是 [流氓] 舊模式。但在轉型過程中，您仍然會有一定程度的難以管理的固定成本。我的意思是，它不像一家減少獎金的經紀公司。那麼有沒有什麼辦法可以估算出你的支出中有多少是固定成本呢？而且我認為他們已經從過去走下坡路，您可能正試圖讓他們更多。

Mike, it's Eric. All good questions. I think that this fact in industry, which used to be variable cost intensive, right? It was very manual, and when you add a new piece of business, you actually have to hire fund accountants. We're working on letter paper first and then on the Excel sheets next. And so it's quite manually intensive and variable in nature. It's actually as we've automated, Think about the data centers. You've talked about the movement to the cloud, the developers that we have -- this business has really evolved to a fixed and semi-fixed cost oriented business in truth. And that means that for certain types of business, we bring on custody business, core custody, right? So kind of the most automated and the most -- the oldest part of what sits in our franchise, that comes in, you plug it in and the computers just process a few more times, not overnight, but literally in nanoseconds, right? And so this has become a more fixed cost business.

邁克，是埃里克。所有的好問題。我認為工業中的這個事實曾經是可變成本密集型的，對嗎？這是非常手工的，當你增加一項新業務時，你實際上必須聘請基金會計師。我們先處理信紙，然後再處理 Excel 工作表。因此，它需要大量的人工操作，而且本質上是多變的。實際上，正如我們已經自動化的那樣，想想數據中心。你已經談到了向雲的遷移，我們擁有的開發人員——這個業務實際上已經發展成為一個以固定和半固定成本為導向的業務。這意味著對於某些類型的業務，我們會引入託管業務，核心託管，對嗎？所以那種最自動化和最 - 我們特許經營中最古老的部分，進來，你插入它，計算機只處理幾次，不是一夜之間，而是在納秒內，對吧？因此，這已成為一項成本更高的業務。

And so what we need to do is think about how do we want to manage those fixed costs, how are they deployed the development dollars and technology, how do we shape that each year because we can -- if we do that right, we'll add feature functionality and that will bring in new business over time, that will help retention and that will help growth. And so this is more of a fixed cost business and semi-fixed costs. Where is it? it's more 80-20 fixed and semi-fixed than 20-80. And I think it actually has evolved. And so what's important for us to do is to make sure that we have the products and the offerings and the client coverage to support that and to add new business at the right type of new business. And then where there are variable cost components.

因此，我們需要做的是考慮我們要如何管理這些固定成本，他們如何部署開發資金和技術，我們每年如何塑造它，因為我們可以——如果我們做得對，我們”您將添加特色功能，這將隨著時間的推移帶來新業務，這將有助於保留並有助於增長。因此，這更像是一項固定成本業務和半固定成本。它在哪裡？ 80-20固定和半固定比20-80多。我認為它實際上已經進化了。因此，對我們來說重要的是確保我們擁有產品和產品以及客戶覆蓋範圍來支持它，並在正確類型的新業務中添加新業務。然後是可變成本構成。

We've talked about some of the more manual and complex areas, right? Servicing for private, for example, is still quite manual. It's complicated. They are not standard systems. Typically, in the industry, there are no -- there's very little in third-party software that one could avail oneself, -- those are the variable areas where we need to continue to find ways to automate and streamline and that's part of what we're doing with the ongoing investment program that we have underway.

我們已經討論了一些更手動和更複雜的領域，對吧？例如，為私人提供服務仍然是相當手動的。情況很複雜。它們不是標準系統。通常，在行業中，沒有——第三方軟件中很少有人可以利用——這些是我們需要繼續尋找自動化和簡化方法的可變領域，這是我們工作的一部分正在處理我們正在進行的持續投資計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Wildhack from Autonomous Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Rob Wildhack。

AUC/A wins in the fourth quarter were pretty good. And Eric, you called out a strong pipeline there. What level of new business wins are you expecting in '23? And do you see those coming from any specific client category, cohort, service area, anything like that?

第四節的 AUC/A 勝利相當不錯。埃里克，你在那裡調出了一條強大的管道。您期望在 23 年贏得什麼級別的新業務？你看到那些來自任何特定客戶類別、隊列、服務區域等的人嗎？

As we have said, the pipeline remains strong. I think we're pleased with wins this year. Wins were about -- $1.9 trillion for the full year. What I have said is -- and I think we feel good about this target or a line in the sand as we've said, to drive the kind of organic growth that we'd like -- we want to win about $1.5 trillion per year of new business. We did that this past year, we did it in space closer to double that in 2021. And so -- and that's our expectation. We expect and we think that's par for 2023 as well. Obviously, we want to sell more than that, right? We want to bring in new more new clients or further deepen relationships with existing clients. I think what we feel good about here is both the new business this year, the $1.9 trillion that has come in has come in at good fee rates. The fee rates of the new wins are actually in line with our overall fee rate this year. And so that means that as it onboards it will be neutral or even accretive to the fee rate. So that's important, and that's an important part of the program.

正如我們所說，管道仍然強勁。我認為我們對今年的勝利感到滿意。全年的贏利約為 1.9 萬億美元。我所說的是——我認為我們對這個目標或我們所說的底線感覺良好，以推動我們想要的那種有機增長——我們希望每年贏得約 1.5 萬億美元新業務的一年。去年我們做到了這一點，我們在太空中做到了這一點，接近 2021 年的兩倍。所以——這是我們的期望。我們預計並且我們認為這對於 2023 年也是一樣的。顯然，我們想賣得更多，對吧？我們希望引進更多新客戶或進一步加深與現有客戶的關係。我認為我們在這裡感覺良好的是今年的新業務，已經進來的 1.9 萬億美元的費用率很高。新贏的費率其實和我們今年的整體費率是一致的。因此，這意味著隨著它的加入，它將保持中性，甚至會增加費用率。所以這很重要，這是該計劃的重要組成部分。

In terms of segments, it's been broad-based. I mean this past quarter, for example, was broad-based across regions, literally, I think it was 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 and we saw particularly strong growth this past year in Asia. We'd like to repeat that again. I think we got -- we have an intensity on Europe and North America as well. So there's not -- I'd say it's not one particular segment or one particular region. It's fairly broad. But it's a good pipeline overall.

就細分市場而言，它的基礎廣泛。我的意思是，例如，上個季度在各個地區都有廣泛的基礎，從字面上看，我認為它是 1/3、1/3、1/3，過去一年我們在亞洲看到了特別強勁的增長。我們想再重複一遍。我認為我們得到了——我們對歐洲和北美也有強烈的興趣。所以沒有 - 我會說它不是一個特定的部分或一個特定的區域。它相當廣泛。但總的來說這是一個很好的管道。

Got it. And then you also mentioned some higher renewals in the Alpha business. Wondering if you could talk about the retention rate there how is the retention among front-to-back clients compared to your more traditional, your back or middle office only clients?

知道了。然後你還提到了 Alpha 業務的一些更高的更新。想知道您是否可以談談保留率，與更傳統的後台或中台客戶相比，前台到後台客戶的保留率如何？

Yes, Rob, I mean in terms of fully installed Alpha clients, the retention rate is 100%. And you wouldn't expect it to be much less than that simply because it's still relatively new. I think that there's a real commitment that's made on both sides of the house when you enter into these things. First of all, to actually rewire the firm around -- for the client to rewire around front to back. There's a lot of effort on their part. And while there's a lot of commonality across these clients, there's a lot on our part that we need to do to install it.

是的，Rob，我的意思是就完全安裝的 Alpha 客戶端而言，保留率為 100%。而且您不會僅僅因為它仍然相對較新而期望它比這少得多。我認為當你參與這些事情時，房子的兩邊都會做出真正的承諾。首先，實際重新佈線公司——讓客戶從前到後重新佈線。他們付出了很多努力。雖然這些客戶端之間有很多共性，但我們需要做很多事情來安裝它。

So contracts are longer. But the reality is that the switching costs have also gone up dramatically in these front-to-back things. So we would expect more. But we also recognize that we've got to earn that. I mean we've got -- right now, there's a -- when that happens, there's a huge dependency on the part of the client and us delivering every day. And so we take that responsibility quite seriously.

所以合同更長。但現實是，在這些從前到後的事情中，轉換成本也急劇上升。所以我們會期待更多。但我們也認識到我們必須贏得它。我的意思是我們已經 - 現在，有一個 - 當這種情況發生時，客戶和我們每天都在交付方面存在巨大的依賴性。因此，我們非常重視這一責任。

Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Juneja from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Just a couple of little details for you, Eric. You mentioned RWA came down by about $10 billion and you expect to see another decline $10 billion to $15 billion. Any color on what you did there? And does it sustainable post 1Q?

埃里克，只是一些小細節給你。你提到 RWA 下降了約 100 億美元，你預計會再下降 100 億美元至 150 億美元。你在那裡做了什麼有什麼顏色嗎？第一季度後它是否可持續？

Yes. Let me just clarify. RWA was lower than expected in the fourth quarter by about $10 billion. And in first quarter, we expect it to reverse, in other words, to move back up by $10 billion, $12 billion, $15 billion. And it's just driven by some of the underlying volatility in our business. For example, overdrafts were lighter than expected this quarter. They moved around by a few billion dollars, and that moves RWA by a few billion dollars each quarter. In the FX book, we run a very sort of a typical forward book, 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 6 weeks forward. And as you have U.S. dollar appreciation or depreciation, you can get you can get $5 billion moves in RWA relatively easily.

是的。讓我澄清一下。第四季度 RWA 低於預期約 100 億美元。在第一季度，我們預計它會逆轉，換句話說，會回升 100 億美元、120 億美元、150 億美元。它只是受到我們業務中一些潛在波動的驅動。例如，本季度透支額低於預期。他們移動了數十億美元，這使 RWA 每個季度移動了數十億美元。在 FX 賬簿中，我們運行了一種非常典型的遠期賬簿，2 週、4 週、6 週。當美元升值或貶值時，您可以相對輕鬆地獲得 50 億美元的 RWA。

So that's just the volatility that we saw we tend to be quite careful to stay within our RWA internal limits. That's why we tend not to have upswings in RWA, but we tend to have these beneficial quarters now and then. And we'll just note them to you so you can model out our capital ratio trends.

所以這就是我們看到的波動，我們傾向於非常小心地保持在我們的 RWA 內部限制內。這就是為什麼我們往往不會在 RWA 中出現上升，但我們往往會時不時地擁有這些有利的季度。我們只會將它們記錄給您，以便您可以模擬我們的資本比率趨勢。

Great. Second, another little detail for you. Your software processing and data, could you parse that into data versus CRD since that's not combined. So you got this big growth rate there? What's going on underneath? How much is data? How much is...

偉大的。其次，再給你一個小細節。您的軟件處理和數據，您能否將其解析為數據而不是 CRD，因為它們沒有合併。所以你在那裡有這麼大的增長率？下面發生了什麼？數據量是多少？多少錢...

Sure. It's a combination. I mean, the bulk of that is really around Charles River and the franchise that we purchased back in 2018, which has really given us the kind of growth that we had expected. So you can go back and compare the size of the franchise, I think at the last disclosure. I think we probably showed it a year ago and compare it to that software and data line and get a kind of an adjustment. But it's the large majority, I'll say, of that line.

當然。這是一個組合。我的意思是，其中大部分是圍繞 Charles River 和我們在 2018 年購買的特許經營權，這確實給了我們預期的增長。所以你可以回去比較特許經營權的規模，我想在最後一次披露時。我認為我們可能在一年前展示過它，並將其與該軟件和數據線進行比較，並進行了某種調整。但我要說的是，這是該行的絕大多數。

Data to us is though a very appealing offering that supplements what's in -- sometimes sold with the Charles River offering sometimes with Alpha and the middle office, sometimes sold as supplemental to just custody and accounting because it's such a high-value and informative kind of window, sometimes for risk management purposes, sometimes for client transparency purposes for our asset manager or asset owner clients. And so it's actually one of the faster growing areas of that area. And that's why we've put it together because it's actually a software type sale, but an important one.

對我們來說，數據雖然是一種非常有吸引力的產品，可以補充現有的內容——有時與 Charles River 產品一起出售，有時與 Alpha 和中間辦公室一起出售，有時作為對保管和會計的補充出售，因為它是如此高價值和信息豐富的一種窗口，有時用於風險管理目的，有時用於我們的資產經理或資產所有者客戶的客戶透明度目的。因此，它實際上是該地區增長最快的地區之一。這就是我們將其放在一起的原因，因為它實際上是一種軟件類型的銷售，但很重要。

Yes. Vivek, it's Ron. Let me just add to that because we've done a lot of innovation in this area of new product development, and we do expect that to continue to grow as Eric said, because what -- everybody is interested in simplifying their operations, simplifying and getting control of their tech depth and innovating on the technology side. But in addition, there's a data management, data control in some parts of the world with some investors, it's also location of data. Where does the data actually both move and rest. So this is sitting increasingly -- this is a growth area. It goes beyond asset managers, large asset owners in particular very interested in them. So we see it as a way to extend what we're doing broadly in the Alpha arena.

是的。維維克，是羅恩。讓我補充一點，因為我們在新產品開發的這個領域做了很多創新，我們確實希望像埃里克所說的那樣繼續增長，因為每個人都對簡化他們的操作感興趣，簡化和控制他們的技術深度並在技術方面進行創新。但除此之外，在世界上的一些地方和一些投資者有數據管理、數據控制，這也是數據的位置。數據實際上在哪裡移動和休息。所以這坐得越來越多——這是一個增長領域。它超越了資產管理者，尤其是大型資產所有者對他們非常感興趣。因此，我們將其視為擴展我們在 Alpha 領域所做工作的一種方式。

And just to clarify on CRD, Eric, to your comment earlier, when you previously talked about it was growing in sort of the low double-digit range. This was a year or 2 ago when you were -- when it was broken out. Is that still the pace at which is just continuing to grow? Or is that as it matures, slowing down a little bit? Or is it accelerating any granularity? Any color on that?

只是為了澄清 CRD，埃里克，你之前的評論，當你之前談到它時，它正在以低兩位數的範圍增長。這是一兩年前的事情，當時它被打破了。這仍然是繼續增長的速度嗎？還是隨著它的成熟，速度放慢了一點？或者它正在加速任何粒度？上面有顏色嗎？

Yes. It continues through odd pace. I'd say it moves around depending on some of the on-premise renewals that still flow through the P&L, high single digits, low double digits. And what we've done is continue to -- the team continues to drive kind of the core CRD offerings, the -- start with an equity product. It's moved to equity and fixed income, which are now industry, I think, industry at peer levels, in some cases, industry-leading. And then what we've done is supplemented that. For example, we purchased a small company called Mercatus, which was kind of a front-end portion of a Charles River type offering. And so we've added a kind of private market area to what I'll call the broader Charles River Complex.

是的。它以奇怪的速度繼續。我會說它會根據仍然流經損益表的一些內部續訂，高個位數，低兩位數來移動。我們所做的是繼續——團隊繼續推動核心 CRD 產品——從股票產品開始。它轉移到股票和固定收益，我認為現在是行業，在同行水平上，在某些情況下，行業領先。然後我們所做的就是對此進行補充。例如，我們收購了一家名為 Mercatus 的小公司，這是 Charles River 類型產品的前端部分。所以我們在我稱之為更廣泛的查爾斯河綜合體的地方增加了一種私人市場區域。

So this is an area that I think will continue to grow probably twice the rate of State Street -- help -- lead us forward but also as the tip of the spear of how we engage with clients, new clients, existing clients in broader ways. And that's why the core software, I think, is an important product. And what I think I've been pleased with, especially this year, which has been all over the place economically and politically, right, even with the equity markets up and down, software and software growth, core Charles River, data, private -- software for private continues to grow in this double-digit range. Low double-digit range through thick and thin, and that helps balance out, I think, the growth dynamic of the company.

因此，我認為這是一個可能會繼續以道富銀行兩倍的速度增長的領域——幫助——引領我們前進，同時也是我們如何以更廣泛的方式與客戶、新客戶和現有客戶打交道的矛尖.這就是為什麼我認為核心軟件是一個重要的產品。我認為我一直很高興，尤其是今年，經濟和政治上到處都是，正確的，即使股票市場上下波動，軟件和軟件增長，核心 Charles River，數據，私有 - - 私人軟件繼續以兩位數的速度增長。低兩位數的範圍從厚到薄，我認為這有助於平衡公司的增長動力。

That would be for our last question. I'll be turning the call over back to Mr. Ron O'Hanley for closing remarks.

那將是我們的最後一個問題。我會將電話轉回給 Ron O'Hanley 先生，讓他發表結束語。

Thank you, operator, and thanks to all for joining us.

謝謝你，運營商，感謝大家加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a lovely day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝你愉快。