道富銀行 (STT) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to State Street Corporation's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's discussion is being broadcast live on State Street's website at investors.statestreet.com. This conference call is also being recorded for replay. State Street's conference call is copyrighted, and all rights are reserved. This call may not be recorded for rebroadcast or distribution in whole or in part without the express written authorization from State Street Corporation. The only authorized broadcast of this call will be housed in the State Street website.

    早上好,歡迎來到 State Street Corporation 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。今天的討論將在 State Street 的網站 investors.statestreet.com 上進行現場直播。此電話會議也正在錄製以供重播。 State Street 的電話會議受版權保護,並保留所有權利。未經 State Street Corporation 的明確書面授權,不得錄製此電話以進行全部或部分轉播或分發。此電話會議的唯一授權廣播將在 State Street 網站上進行。

  • Now I'd like to introduce Ilene Fiszel Bieler, Global Head of Investor Relations at State Street.

    現在我想介紹道富銀行投資者關係全球主管艾琳·菲澤爾·比勒 (Ilene Fiszel Bieler)。

  • Ilene Fiszel Bieler - Executive VP & Global Head of IR

    Ilene Fiszel Bieler - Executive VP & Global Head of IR

  • Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. On our call today, our CEO, Ron O'Hanley, will speak first; then Eric Aboaf, our CFO, will take you through our third quarter 2022 earnings slide presentation, which is available for download in the Investor Relations section of our website, investors.statestreet.com. Afterwards, we'll be happy to take questions. (Operator Instructions)

    早上好,感謝大家加入我們。在我們今天的電話會議上,我們的首席執行官 Ron O'Hanley 將首先發言;然後,我們的首席財務官埃里克·阿博夫 (Eric Aboaf) 將帶您瀏覽我們 2022 年第三季度的收益幻燈片演示文稿,該演示文稿可在我們網站 investors.statestreet.com 的投資者關係部分下載。之後,我們很樂意回答問題。 (操作員說明)

  • Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation will include results presented on a basis that excludes or adjusts one or more items from GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP or regulatory measure are available in the appendix to our slide presentation, also available in the IR section of our website.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,今天的報告將包括在排除或調整 GAAP 中的一個或多個項目的基礎上呈現的結果。這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 或監管措施的調節可在我們的幻燈片演示文稿的附錄中找到,也可在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。

  • In addition, today's presentation will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those statements due to a variety of important factors, such as those factors referenced in our discussion today and in our SEC filings, including the risk factors in our Form 10-K. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them even if our views change.

    此外,今天的演示文稿將包含前瞻性陳述。由於各種重要因素,例如我們今天的討論和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的那些因素,包括我們 10-K 表格中的風險因素,實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。我們的前瞻性陳述僅在今天發表,即使我們的觀點發生變化,我們也不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

  • Now let me turn it over to Ron.

    現在讓我把它交給羅恩。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Ilene, and good morning, everyone. 2022 continues to unfold like no other year in recent memory with the challenges faced today arising partly out of, but acutely different from, those the world faced in 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. And while the global operating environment continues to be very challenging, our third quarter results clearly demonstrate the resilience of our business model and our focus on maintaining and further improving State Street's pretax margin, which was a solid 29% in the third quarter, excluding notable items.

    謝謝你,Ilene,大家早上好。 2022 年繼續展開,這在最近的記憶中是前所未有的,今天面臨的挑戰部分源於 2020 年 COVID-19 大流行病爆發期間世界面臨的挑戰,但與這些挑戰截然不同。儘管全球運營環境仍然充滿挑戰,但我們第三季度的業績清楚地表明了我們商業模式的彈性以及我們對維持和進一步提高 State Street 的稅前利潤率的重視,該利潤率在第三季度保持穩定的 29%,不包括值得注意的項目。

  • During the third quarter, financial markets were negatively impacted by the adverse effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine and several macroeconomic headwinds, including continued price and wage inflation, dramatically higher interest rates, significant U.S. dollar strength and heightened fears of a global recession. These factors collectively drove heightened uncertainty, which contributed to meaningful declines in both global equity and fixed income markets as well as increased market volatility, which in turn impacted flows.

    在第三季度,金融市場受到烏克蘭持續戰爭的不利影響和一些宏觀經濟逆風的負面影響,包括持續的價格和工資通脹、利率大幅上漲、美元顯著走強以及對全球經濟衰退的擔憂加劇。這些因素共同導致不確定性加劇,導致全球股票和固定收益市場大幅下跌,市場波動加劇,進而影響資金流動。

  • We continue to carefully navigate the business through this environment. While the operating climate created a number of fee revenue headwinds for our business in the third quarter, the savings and efficiency of our Alpha and enterprise outsourcing offering makes our value proposition even more attractive to asset managers and asset owners in the current market and inflationary environment. We maintained a solid balance sheet and strong capital position, delivered significant NII growth as well as healthy FX trading revenues and remain laser focused on intensely managing what we can control as demonstrated by our expense management.

    我們將繼續在這種環境中謹慎地開展業務。雖然經營環境在第三季度對我們的業務造成了一些費用收入的不利影響,但我們的 Alpha 和企業外包產品的節省和效率使我們的價值主張在當前市場和通貨膨脹環境下對資產管理者和資產所有者更具吸引力.我們保持了穩健的資產負債表和強大的資本狀況,實現了顯著的 NII 增長以及健康的外匯交易收入,並繼續專注於集中管理我們可以控制的內容,正如我們的費用管理所證明的那樣。

  • Turning to Slide 3 of our presentation, I will review our third quarter highlights before Eric takes you through the quarter in more detail. Starting with our financial performance. Third quarter '22 EPS was $1.80 or $1.82, excluding notable items compared to $1.96 or $2, excluding notable items in 3Q '21. Double-digit year-over-year declines in average global equity market values drove most of this decrease.

    轉到我們演示文稿的幻燈片 3,在 Eric 帶您更詳細地了解本季度之前,我將回顧我們第三季度的亮點。從我們的財務業績開始。 22 年第三季度每股收益為 1.80 美元或 1.82 美元,不包括值得注意的項目,相比之下,21 年第三季度為 1.96 美元或 2 美元,不包括值得注意的項目。全球股市平均市值兩位數的同比跌幅是造成這一跌幅的主要原因。

  • Total fee revenue for the third quarter declined 8% year-over-year, primarily reflecting the impact of significantly lower global equity and fixed income market levels on servicing and management fees as well as the stronger U.S. dollar. Within total fee revenue, our Global Markets franchise once again continued to perform well with FX trading services and securities finance revenues increasing 14% and 4% year-over-year, respectively, as the business was able to benefit from increased volatility while supporting our clients.

    第三季度的總費用收入同比下降 8%,主要反映了全球股票和固定收益市場水平顯著下降對服務和管理費用以及美元走強的影響。在總費用收入中,我們的全球市場業務再次繼續表現良好,外匯交易服務和證券融資收入分別同比增長 14% 和 4%,因為該業務能夠從波動性增加中獲益,同時支持我們的業務客戶。

  • We also drove a solid result within Front office software and data with third quarter revenue increasing 9% year-over-year. Total revenue for the third quarter declined just 1% year-over-year, as lower total fee revenue was largely offset by a very strong NII result, which increased 36% relative to the year ago period, driven primarily by higher interest rates.

    我們還在前台軟件和數據方面取得了可喜的成績,第三季度收入同比增長 9%。第三季度的總收入同比僅下降 1%,因為較低的總費用收入在很大程度上被非常強勁的 NII 結果所抵消,NII 結果比去年同期增長了 36%,這主要是由於利率上升。

  • Faced with continued market-related fee revenue headwinds and inflationary pressures, we remain focused on controlling expense growth. Even as we invested in our people and business, third quarter total expenses were flat, both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar and expense management.

    面對持續的市場相關費用收入逆風和通脹壓力,我們仍然專注於控制費用增長。即使我們投資於我們的人員和業務,第三季度總費用同比和環比持平,這主要是受美元走強和費用管理的影響。

  • Business momentum was solid in the third quarter, with new AUC/A asset servicing wins amounting to $233 billion. Encouragingly, our third quarter wins include expanded relationships with two existing Alpha clients. demonstrating our ability to broaden and deepen client relationships and drive new back office mandates through our Alpha strategy. As a result of this quarter's solid sales performance, AUC/A won but yet to be installed with $3.4 trillion at quarter end. Front office and data also experienced good business momentum in the third quarter with annual recurring revenue increasing 20% year-over-year to $267 million.

    第三季度的業務勢頭強勁,新的 AUC/A 資產服務贏得了 2330 億美元。令人鼓舞的是,我們第三季度的勝利包括擴大與兩個現有 Alpha 客戶的關係。證明我們有能力通過我們的 Alpha 戰略擴大和深化客戶關係並推動新的後台任務。由於本季度的穩健銷售業績,AUC/A 在季度末贏得了 3.4 萬億美元,但尚未安裝。前台和數據在第三季度也經歷了良好的業務勢頭,年度經常性收入同比增長 20% 至 2.67 億美元。

  • At Global Advisors, assets under management totaled $3.3 trillion. Overall, third quarter AUM flows and management fees were negatively impacted by weaker equity and fixed income markets, but we still saw positive net flows into our cash, SPY and U.S. low-cost ETF products during the quarter. Even in the volatile environment, our global institutional money market business has continued to gain market share this year with AUM reaching a record level in the third quarter, having experienced 4 quarters in a row of inflows. We remain excited by our Global Adviser strategy and the growth potential of the franchise and announced new leadership in the third quarter as Yie-Hsin Hung will become SSGA's new President and CEO in December.

    Global Advisors 管理的資產總計 3.3 萬億美元。總體而言,第三季度 AUM 流量和管理費受到股票和固定收益市場疲軟的負面影響,但我們在本季度仍看到現金、SPY 和美國低成本 ETF 產品的淨流入為正。即使在動蕩的環境中,我們的全球機構貨幣市場業務今年繼續獲得市場份額,資產管理規模在第三季度達到創紀錄水平,連續四個季度流入。我們仍然對我們的全球顧問戰略和特許經營的增長潛力感到興奮,並在第三季度宣布了新的領導層,因為 Yie-Hsin Hung 將於 12 月成為 SSGA 的新總裁兼首席執行官。

  • I would now like to turn to the proposed acquisition of Brown Brothers Harriman's Investor Services business, which remains subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions. The current regulatory environment for M&A transactions involving G-SIBs is challenging. We are engaged in ongoing dialogue with U.S. and international banking regulators regarding the prolonged regulatory review process. We have developed with BBH proposed modifications to the transaction, including changes to the operating model and legal entity structure and a reduction to the purchase price. We anticipate that a modified transaction would be somewhat more complex and included a delay in timing and amount of deal synergies, resulting in a slower path to accretion.

    我現在想談談對 Brown Brothers Harriman 投資者服務業務的擬議收購,該業務仍有待監管部門批准和其他成交條件。當前涉及 G-SIBs 的併購交易的監管環境充滿挑戰。我們正在與美國和國際銀行業監管機構就延長的監管審查程序進行持續對話。我們與 BBH 一起制定了對交易的修改建議,包括改變運營模式和法人實體結構以及降低購買價格。我們預計修改後的交易會稍微複雜一些,包括延遲時間和交易協同效應的數量,從而導致增長路徑變慢。

  • While discussions with regulators on the proposed modified transaction are ongoing, the likelihood of a successful outcome is increasingly uncertain. There can be no assurance that a mutually acceptable modified transaction will be agreed and enter into or as to the timing or outcome of any regulatory approvals and other closing conditions for a modified transaction.

    雖然與監管機構就擬議的修改後的交易進行討論,但成功結果的可能性越來越不確定。無法保證雙方可接受的修改後的交易將被同意並簽訂或關於任何監管批准的時間或結果以及修改後的交易的其他成交條件。

  • The modifications to the transaction remain subject to review and approval by both BBH's partners and our Board of Directors. As previously noted, the sale and purchase agreement allows each of State Street and BBH the right to terminate the transaction upon written notice without a contractual penalty at any time.

    對交易的修改仍有待 BBH 的合作夥伴和我們的董事會審查和批准。如前所述,買賣協議允許 State Street 和 BBH 各自有權在收到書面通知後隨時終止交易,而無需支付合同罰金。

  • We continue to believe the strategic rationale for the transaction remains compelling, and that has encouraged us to continue to seek an acceptable path forward. These efforts are actively underway. And as we previously stated, we expect to reach a decision on whether the transaction can proceed forward during this quarter.

    我們仍然相信交易的戰略理由仍然令人信服,這鼓勵我們繼續尋求可接受的前進道路。這些努力正在積極進行中。正如我們之前所說,我們希望就交易是否可以在本季度繼續進行做出決定。

  • Turning to our balance sheet and capital. Despite a continued rise in interest rates, our CET1 capital ratio was a strong 13.2% at quarter end. As I have noted previously, we recognize the importance of capital return to our shareholders and it remains an integral component of our medium-term targets. Accordingly, having already announced a 10% per share increase to our quarterly common stock dividend earlier this year, we now intend to repurchase approximately $1 billion of State Street's common stock in the fourth quarter under the existing common stock repurchase program authorization, which expires at the end of 2022.

    轉向我們的資產負債表和資本。儘管利率持續上升,但我們的 CET1 資本比率在季度末仍高達 13.2%。正如我之前所指出的,我們認識到資本回報對我們股東的重要性,它仍然是我們中期目標的一個組成部分。因此,在今年早些時候宣布將我們的季度普通股股息每股增加 10% 後,我們現在打算根據現有的普通股回購計劃授權在第四季度回購約 10 億美元的道富普通股,該授權將於2022 年底。

  • Additionally, in keeping with our medium-term targets, it is also our intention to return greater than 80% of earnings in 2023 in the form of common stock dividends and share repurchases, subject to approval by our Board of Directors and market conditions at the time. If the proposed acquisition of BBH Investor Services does not progress, we would expect capital return to be significantly more than that amount.

    此外,為了與我們的中期目標保持一致,我們還打算在 2023 年以普通股股息和股票回購的形式返還超過 80% 的收益,但須經我們的董事會批准以及 2023 年的市場狀況時間。如果對 BBH Investor Services 的擬議收購沒有取得進展,我們預計資本回報將大大超過該金額。

  • To conclude, the events of the last 2.5 years have demonstrated the resiliencies of State Street's business model during times of heightened market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. Even as financial markets broadly declined in the third quarter, we delivered a healthy pretax margin of 29%, excluding notable items, in addition to solid new business wins. While the environment is challenging and uncertain, we remain confident in our ability to continue to successfully execute against our strategic agenda and improve our operating model and financial performance over the medium term for the benefit of our clients and shareholders.

    總而言之,過去 2.5 年的事件證明了道富商業模式在市場波動加劇和宏觀經濟不確定性時期的彈性。即使金融市場在第三季度普遍下滑,除了穩固的新業務勝利外,我們還實現了 29% 的健康稅前利潤率,不包括值得注意的項目。儘管環境充滿挑戰和不確定性,但我們仍然相信我們有能力繼續成功執行我們的戰略議程,並在中期改善我們的運營模式和財務業績,以造福於我們的客戶和股東。

  • As we look ahead, we will continue to adapt to the highly uncertain environment by remaining intensely focused on managing what we can control as our solid expense discipline in 2022 to date has demonstrated with year-to-date total expenses flat to the same 9-month period in 2021, even as we invested meaningfully in our people and business.

    展望未來,我們將繼續高度專注於管理我們可以控制的事情,以適應高度不確定的環境,因為我們在 2022 年迄今為止的嚴格支出紀律已經證明,年初至今的總支出持平於相同的 9-在 2021 年一個月的時間裡,即使我們對我們的人員和業務進行了有意義的投資。

  • And with that, let me turn it over to Eric to take you through the quarter in more detail.

    有了這個,讓我把它交給埃里克,讓你更詳細地了解這個季度。

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Thank you, Ron, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin my review of our third quarter results on Slide 4.

    謝謝你,羅恩,大家早上好。我將在幻燈片 4 上開始審查我們的第三季度業績。

  • We reported EPS of $1.80 or $1.82, excluding acquisition and restructuring costs as detailed in the panel on the right of the slide. As you know, the operating environment in the third quarter remained challenging with persistent market volatility related to ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, rapidly rising interest rates and concerns about the global economy. Despite these challenges, as you can see on the left panel of the slide, strong growth in both net interest income and our FX trading services business enabled us to partially offset the significant headwinds from lower equity and fixed income markets in the quarter. Additionally, we continue to demonstrate prudent expense management in the third quarter, even as we experienced ongoing price and wage increases, while we continue to invest in the franchise.

    我們報告的每股收益為 1.80 美元或 1.82 美元,不包括幻燈片右側面板中詳述的收購和重組成本。如您所知,第三季度的經營環境仍然充滿挑戰,持續的地緣政治緊張局勢、通脹壓力、快速上升的利率和對全球經濟的擔憂導致市場持續波動。儘管存在這些挑戰,正如您在幻燈片的左側面板中看到的那樣,淨利息收入和我們的外匯交易服務業務的強勁增長使我們能夠部分抵消本季度較低的股票和固定收益市場帶來的重大不利因素。此外,我們在第三季度繼續展示謹慎的費用管理,即使我們經歷了持續的價格和工資上漲,同時我們繼續投資於特許經營權。

  • Turning to Slide 5. During the quarter, we saw period-end investment services AUC/A decreased by 18% on a year-on-year basis and 7% sequentially. The year-on-year change was largely driven by continued lower period end market levels across equity and fixed income markets globally, a previously disclosed client transition and the impact of currency translation, partially offset by net new business installations. The quarter-on-quarter decline was largely a result of these same factors.

    轉到幻燈片 5。本季度,我們看到期末投資服務 AUC/A 同比下降 18%,環比下降 7%。同比變化主要是由於全球股票和固定收益市場的期末市場水平持續走低、之前披露的客戶轉型和貨幣換算的影響,部分被淨新業務安裝所抵消。環比下降主要是這些相同因素的結果。

  • Similarly, at Global Advisors, period-end AUM decreased 15% year-on-year and 6% sequentially. The year-on-year decline in AUM was largely driven by lower period end market levels, institutional net outflows and the impact of currency translation, which was partially offset by positive net flows in both our ETF and cash businesses.

    同樣,在 Global Advisors,期末 AUM 同比下降 15%,環比下降 6%。 AUM 的同比下降主要是由於期末市場水平較低、機構淨流出和貨幣換算的影響,這部分被我們的 ETF 和現金業務的正淨流量所抵消。

  • Turning to Slide 6. On the left side of the page, you'll see third quarter total servicing fees down 12% year-on-year, largely driven by lower average equity and fixed income market levels, lower client activity and adjustments, normal pricing headwinds and the impact of currency translation, partially offset by net new business. Excluding the impact of currency translation, servicing fees were down 9% year-on-year. Even with the negative impact of the market environment in the quarter, I would highlight that we're pleased to see good double-digit growth in our private markets businesses. Sequentially, total servicing fees were down 6%, primarily as a result of these same drivers.

    轉到幻燈片 6。在頁面左側,您會看到第三季度總服務費同比下降 12%,這主要是由於平均股票和固定收益市場水平較低、客戶活動和調整較低、正常定價逆風和貨幣換算的影響,部分被淨新業務抵消。剔除貨幣換算的影響,服務費同比下降 9%。即使在本季度市場環境的負面影響下,我仍要強調,我們很高興看到我們的私人市場業務實現兩位數的良好增長。結果,總服務費下降了 6%,這主要是由於這些相同的驅動因素。

  • Lastly, we recorded traditional custody wins worth $233 billion in the quarter with attractive fee rates across key client segments. And we now have more than $3.2 trillion of assets to be installed, a good portion of which are attributed to large Alpha deals that were won over the past year. Given our large backlog, we installed approximately $350 billion of assets this quarter, which is in line with our historical pace.

    最後,我們在本季度記錄了價值 2330 億美元的傳統託管業務,主要客戶群的費率具有吸引力。我們現在有超過 3.2 萬億美元的資產要安裝,其中很大一部分歸因於過去一年贏得的大型 Alpha 交易。鑑於我們的大量積壓,本季度我們安裝了大約 3500 億美元的資產,這與我們的歷史步伐一致。

  • Turning to Slide 7. Third quarter management fees were $472 million, down 10% year-on-year, primarily reflecting lower average equity and fixed income market levels, a previously disclosed client-specific pricing adjustment, institutional net outflows and the impact of currency translation, partially offset by the absence of the impact of money market fee waivers and positive net ETF and cash inflows. Management fees were down 4% quarter-on-quarter, largely due to equity and fixed income market headwinds and the impact of currency translation.

    轉到幻燈片 7。第三季度管理費為 4.72 億美元,同比下降 10%,主要反映了較低的平均股票和固定收益市場水平、先前披露的針對特定客戶的定價調整、機構淨流出以及貨幣的影響換算,部分被沒有貨幣市場費用豁免和正淨 ETF 和現金流入的影響所抵消。管理費環比下降 4%,這主要是由於股票和固定收益市場的逆風以及貨幣換算的影響。

  • Notwithstanding the challenging backdrop in the quarter, while we did see some outflows in our ETF business due to an exit of a low-yielding Asia Pacific fund, our franchise still remains well positioned for growth. In ETFs, we saw sustained ETF inflows into the SPDR low-cost suite and fixed income funds.

    儘管本季度的背景充滿挑戰,但由於一隻低收益的亞太基金退出,我們的 ETF 業務確實出現了一些資金外流,但我們的特許經營業務仍處於增長的有利位置。在 ETF 中,我們看到 ETF 持續流入 SPDR 低成本套件和固定收益基金。

  • In our institutional business, there's continued momentum in defined contribution with third quarter inflows of $10 billion, including the target date franchise. In our cash business, top quartile performance on our government money market fund was a major driver of net inflows which contributed to market share gains in the institutional money market funds.

    在我們的機構業務中,第三季度流入 100 億美元(包括目標日期特許經營權)的固定貢獻持續增長。在我們的現金業務中,我們政府貨幣市場基金的前四分之一業績是淨流入的主要驅動力,這有助於機構貨幣市場基金的市場份額增加。

  • On Slide 8, FX trading services had yet another strong quarter. Relative to the period a year ago, third quarter FX trading services revenue was up 14%, primarily driven by higher FX spreads driven by higher market volatility and the recent regulatory capital changes partially offset by lower client FX volumes. Quarter-on-quarter FX trading services revenue was down 4% as the benefit of higher FX spreads was more than offset by lower client FX volumes, which tend to be lower in the summer months.

    在幻燈片 8 中,外匯交易服務又迎來了一個強勁的季度。與去年同期相比,第三季度外匯交易服務收入增長了 14%,這主要是由於市場波動加劇導致外匯利差上升,以及近期監管資本變化被客戶外匯交易量下降部分抵消。外匯交易服務收入環比下降 4%,因為較高的外匯利差的好處被客戶外匯交易量的減少所抵消,而客戶外匯交易量在夏季往往較低。

  • Securities finance performed well in the third quarter, with revenues up 4% year-on-year, primarily driven by higher spreads due to higher special activity, only partially offset by lower agency and enhanced custody balances due to falling market levels. Sequentially, revenues were up 3%, mainly reflecting higher agency spreads.

    證券金融在第三季度表現良好,收入同比增長 4%,這主要是由於特殊活動增加導致利差增加,但僅部分被市場水平下降導致的代理減少和託管餘額增加所抵消。隨後,收入增長了 3%,主要反映了更高的代理價差。

  • Third quarter software and processing fees were up 2% year-on-year primarily driven by higher Front office software revenues associated with CRD, which were up 9%, while lending fees were down 11% due to changes in product mix. Finally, other fee revenues of negative $5 million in the third quarter declined on a year-on-year basis, largely due to negative market-related adjustments. Sequentially, we saw an increase in other fee revenue, primarily reflecting fewer negative market-related adjustments.

    第三季度軟件和處理費用同比增長 2%,這主要是由於與 CRD 相關的前台軟件收入增加,增長了 9%,而由於產品組合的變化,貸款費用下降了 11%。最後,第三季度其他費用收入為負 500 萬美元,同比下降,主要原因是與市場相關的負面調整。隨後,我們看到其他費用收入有所增加,主要反映了與市場相關的負面調整減少。

  • Moving to Slide 9. Let me provide some details on the performance of the Front office software and data revenue in the third quarter on the left panel of the slide. Front office software revenues increased 9% year-on-year as our more durable and recurring software-enabled revenue continues to grow nicely, driven by new client implementations and continued success in converting clients through a cloud-based SaaS platform environment. Sequentially, revenues were up 1% due to higher software-enabled revenue, partially offset by lower professional services revenue. Our revenue backlog remains healthy.

    轉到幻燈片 9。讓我在幻燈片的左側面板中提供有關第三季度前台軟件和數據收入的性能的一些詳細信息。前台軟件收入同比增長 9%,因為我們更持久和經常性的軟件支持收入繼續良好增長,這得益於新的客戶端實施以及通過基於雲的 SaaS 平台環境不斷成功地轉換客戶。由於軟件支持收入增加,收入環比增長 1%,但部分被專業服務收入減少所抵消。我們的收入積壓保持健康。

  • Turning to some of the CRD and Alpha business metrics on the right panel, we continue to be pleased with our new bookings for the business. The $14 million of new bookings from this quarter was well diversified across client segments, particularly wealth and asset owners, demonstrating the benefit of and breadth of clients the platform can now support. As for middle office, we continue to have extremely healthy installed revenue backlog of over $100 million, which is up 50% on a year-on-year basis, as I mentioned earlier.

    轉向右側面板上的一些 CRD 和 Alpha 業務指標,我們繼續對我們的業務新預訂感到滿意。本季度 1400 萬美元的新預訂在客戶群中實現了多元化,尤其是財富和資產所有者,展示了該平台現在可以支持的客戶的利益和廣度。至於中台,正如我之前提到的,我們繼續擁有超過 1 億美元的極其健康的安裝收入積壓,同比增長 50%。

  • Now turning to Slide 10. Third quarter NII increased 36% year-on-year and 13% sequentially, primarily reflecting the impact of higher short-term interest rates from central bank hikes, only partially offset by lower client deposits. More than 40% of this increase was driven by non-U.S. dollar rates as we saw central banks globally raise interest rates.

    現在轉到幻燈片 10。第三季度 NII 同比增長 36%,環比增長 13%,主要反映了央行加息導致短期利率上升的影響,但僅部分被客戶存款減少所抵消。超過 40% 的增長是由非美元利率推動的,因為我們看到全球央行都在加息。

  • On the right of the slide, we show our average balance sheet during the third quarter. As a result of a rapidly changing rate environment, industry-wide deposits have begun to trend lower, and we are seeing some of this play through our balance sheet as well. Excluding the impact of currency translation, average deposits were down 5%, both year-on-year and sequentially and primarily driven by the global tightening in monetary policy by central banks and by the impact of significantly lower market levels on AUC/A. The investment portfolio is down modestly as we continue to manage duration and we now have more than 60% in HTM. As to today's results reaffirm, our balance sheet continues to be well positioned to recognize this interest rate and NII tailwind and also protect AOCI.

    在幻燈片的右側,我們展示了第三季度的平均資產負債表。由於利率環境瞬息萬變,整個行業的存款開始呈下降趨勢,我們也通過資產負債表看到了其中的一些影響。排除貨幣換算的影響,平均存款同比和環比下降 5%,這主要是由於全球央行收緊貨幣政策以及市場水平顯著下降對 AUC/A 的影響。隨著我們繼續管理久期,投資組合略有下降,我們現在擁有超過 60% 的 HTM。至於今天的結果重申,我們的資產負債表繼續處於有利地位,可以識別這種利率和 NII 順風,並保護 AOCI。

  • Turning to Slide 11. Third quarter expenses, excluding notable items, were once again proactively managed in light of the revenue environment and flat year-on-year, or up approximately 4% adjusted for currency translation and notable items. We've been carefully executing on our continued productivity and optimization savings efforts, which generated approximately $80 million in year-on-year gross savings or approximately $230 million year-to-date, which puts us in line to achieve our full year expense optimization guidance of 3% to 4% of the expense base.

    轉到幻燈片 11。根據收入環境,第三季度支出(不包括重要項目)再次得到積極管理,同比持平,或因貨幣換算和重要項目調整後增長約 4%。我們一直在認真執行我們持續的生產力和優化節省工作,這些工作產生了大約 8000 萬美元的同比總節省額或今年迄今大約 2.3 億美元,這使我們有望實現全年費用優化費用基數的 3% 至 4% 的指導。

  • It also contributed to our year-to-date positive operating leverage, which we also expect to deliver for the full year. These savings, in addition to benefits from a stronger U.S. dollar enabled us to offset some of the wage inflation we have seen -- we have been seeing in the industry while we continue to invest in the strategic parts of our company, including Alpha, private markets and operations automation.

    這也為我們今年迄今的積極經營槓桿做出了貢獻,我們也希望在全年實現這一目標。這些儲蓄,加上美元走強帶來的好處,使我們能夠抵消我們已經看到的一些工資通脹——我們在繼續投資於我們公司的戰略部分時一直在行業中看到,包括 Alpha、私人市場和運營自動化。

  • On a line-by-line basis compared to third quarter '21. Compensation and employee benefits were down 1% as the impact of currency translation was partially offset by higher salary costs associated with wage inflation and higher headcount. Headcount increased 6%, primarily in our Poland and India global centers as we invested in important technology capabilities and added operations talent to support new products and services in growth areas such as Alpha, private markets and middle office servicing.

    與 21 年第三季度相比逐行比較。薪酬和員工福利下降了 1%,因為貨幣換算的影響被與工資通脹和員工人數增加相關的更高工資成本部分抵消。員工人數增加了 6%,主要是在我們的波蘭和印度全球中心,因為我們投資於重要的技術能力並增加了運營人才,以支持 Alpha、私人市場和中台服務等增長領域的新產品和服務。

  • There is also a portion of the headcount increase associated with some hiring catch-up post COVID. we expect headcount growth to start to level off. Information Systems and communications expenses were down 2% as we began to see benefits from our in-sourcing efforts and continued vendor pricing optimization, partially offset by technology and infrastructure investments.

    還有一部分員工人數增加與 COVID 後的一些招聘追趕有關。我們預計員工人數增長將開始趨於平穩。信息系統和通信費用下降了 2%,因為我們開始看到我們的內包工作和持續的供應商定價優化帶來的好處,部分被技術和基礎設施投資所抵消。

  • Transaction processing was down 10%, mainly reflecting lower sub-custody costs related to equity market movements. Occupancy was down 5% largely due to currency translation. And other expenses were up 17%, primarily reflecting higher securities processing costs, marketing costs, travel costs and foundation grants.

    交易處理量下降了 10%,主要反映了與股票市場走勢相關的分託管成本降低。由於貨幣換算,入住率下降了 5%。其他費用增長了 17%,主要反映了更高的證券處理成本、營銷成本、差旅成本和基金會撥款。

  • Moving to Slide 12. On the right side of the slide, we show our capital highlights. We are pleased to report CET1 of 13.2%, up 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by higher retained earnings and well-controlled RWA. With respect to RWAs, there is volatility, and I would caveat that they were lower than we expected this quarter. We would anticipate some RWA increases that we continue to both optimize the balance sheet and efficiently put capital to work across our businesses.

    轉到幻燈片 12。在幻燈片的右側,我們展示了資本亮點。我們很高興地報告 CET1 為 13.2%,環比增長 30 個基點,這主要是由於較高的留存收益和控制良好的 RWA。關於風險加權資產,存在波動性,我要提醒的是,它們低於我們本季度的預期。我們預計 RWA 會增加一些,因為我們會繼續優化資產負債表並有效地將資本投入到我們的業務中。

  • Third quarter Tier 1 leverage ratio of 6.4% was up 40 basis points quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the decrease in balance sheet size and higher retained earnings. As the slide highlights, our capital position is strong, and our commitment to being stewards of shareholder capital remains steadfast. In keeping with that commitment, we returned $232 million to shareholders in the third quarter through dividends. And as Ron highlighted, we now intend to repurchase approximately $1 billion of State Street's common stock in the fourth quarter.

    第三季度一級槓桿率為 6.4%,環比上升 40 個基點,主要是由於資產負債表規模下降和留存收益增加。正如幻燈片所強調的那樣,我們的資本狀況強勁,我們對成為股東資本管理者的承諾仍然堅定不移。為了履行這一承諾,我們在第三季度通過派息向股東返還了 2.32 億美元。正如羅恩強調的那樣,我們現在打算在第四季度回購約 10 億美元的道富銀行普通股。

  • This higher-than-expected buyback amount is based on our healthy capital levels and our expected future uses of capital. The AFS mark-to-market in OCI this quarter amounted to $170 million negative as compared to minus $0.5 billion in 2Q '22, meaningfully improved as a result of the management actions we took despite another strong run-up in interest rates this quarter.

    這一高於預期的回購金額是基於我們健康的資本水平和我們預期的未來資本用途。本季度 OCI 的 AFS 按市值計價為負 1.7 億美元,而 2022 年第二季度為負 5 億美元,儘管本季度利率再次強勁上漲,但由於我們採取的管理措施,這一情況得到了顯著改善。

  • Turning to Slide 13. We provide a summary of our third quarter results. Despite the continued volatile market environment, I'm pleased with our quarterly performance. Even with the current macroeconomic environment and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, our strong growth in net interest income and FX trading services enabled us to partially offset another quarter of significant headwinds from both equity and fixed income markets, highlighting the resiliency of the franchise, and our expenses remained well controlled, demonstrating our laser focus on productivity.

    轉到幻燈片 13。我們提供了第三季度業績的摘要。儘管市場環境持續動盪,但我對我們的季度業績感到滿意。即使在當前的宏觀經濟環境和持續的地緣政治不確定性的情況下,我們在淨利息收入和外匯交易服務方面的強勁增長使我們能夠部分抵消另一個季度來自股票和固定收益市場的重大逆風,突顯了特許經營的彈性和我們的支出保持良好的控制,表明我們的激光專注於生產力。

  • Turning to our outlook. Let me share our current thinking regarding our fourth quarter and some of our macro assumptions as we look over the remainder of the year. At a macro level, while market rate expectations have been volatile, our current interest rate outlook is broadly in line with the current forwards, which suggests that year-end Fed funds rate of 4.5%. We expect other international central banks to continue to raise rates in 4Q and beyond into 2023 as well.

    轉向我們的前景。讓我分享一下我們目前對第四季度的看法,以及我們展望今年剩餘時間的一些宏觀假設。在宏觀層面,雖然市場利率預期一直波動,但我們目前的利率前景與當前遠期基本一致,這表明年底聯邦基金利率為 4.5%。我們預計其他國際央行也將在第四季度及以後繼續加息,直至 2023 年。

  • Our outlook assumes 4Q equity market levels will be flat to September month end, which would imply a 10% quarter-on-quarter decline in global daily average equity markets in 4Q. We also expect continued U.S. dollar strength to be worth about 1 percentage point of headwind to fee and a tailwind to expenses on a quarter-on-quarter basis, which is included in our guide.

    我們的展望假設 4 季度股市水平將持平至 9 月末,這意味著 4 季度全球日均股市環比下降 10%。我們還預計,美元的持續走強將對費用產生約 1 個百分點的不利影響,並在季度環比基礎上對支出產生有利影響,這已包含在我們的指南中。

  • So in terms of the fourth quarter of 2022. Given the expected decline in average global equity market levels, we expect total fee revenue to be down about 3% on a sequential quarter basis, with servicing fees down 4% to 5% quarter-on-quarter and management fees down 8% quarter-on-quarter.

    因此,就 2022 年第四季度而言。鑑於全球股市平均水平的預期下降,我們預計總費用收入將環比下降約 3%,服務費環比下降 4% 至 5% -季度和管理費用環比下降 8%。

  • Turning to NII. Following yet another strong sequential increase in NII in 3Q, we expect to deliver additional NII growth of 4% to 10% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the tailwind from U.S. and foreign central bank rate hikes. This outlook includes our expectation for some continued deposit outflow in 4Q. For the full year, we now expect NII to increase 28% to 30%, which is better than our prior full year guide of 24% to 27%. We also expect continued good growth in NII in full year 2023.

    轉向 NII。在第三季度 NII 再次強勁增長之後,我們預計在美國和外國央行加息的推動下,NII 將實現 4% 至 10% 的額外環比增長。這一展望包括我們對第四季度存款繼續流出的預期。對於全年,我們現在預計 NII 將增長 28% 至 30%,好於我們之前的全年指引 24% 至 27%。我們還預計 2023 年全年 NII 將繼續保持良好增長。

  • Next, we expect total expenses, excluding notable items, to be roughly flat quarter-on-quarter despite inflationary wage pressure as we continue to target productivity initiatives in the face of a challenging environment for fee revenue. This focus should enable us to drive positive total operating leverage and a healthy pretax margin for both the fourth quarter and the full year. Full year expenses are expected to be flat versus last year. Finally, we would expect the fourth quarter tax rate to be approximately 18% to 19% for the quarter.

    接下來,我們預計總支出(不包括顯著項目)將與上一季度大致持平,儘管工資通脹壓力很大,因為我們在面臨收費收入充滿挑戰的環境下繼續以生產力舉措為目標。這一重點將使我們能夠在第四季度和全年推動積極的總經營槓桿和健康的稅前利潤率。預計全年支出與去年持平。最後,我們預計第四季度的稅率約為 18% 至 19%。

  • And with that, let me hand the call back to Ron.

    就這樣,讓我把電話轉回給羅恩。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Eric. Operator, let's open the line for questions.

    謝謝,埃里克。接線員,讓我們打開問題熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

    (操作員說明)我們將從 Glenn Schorr 和 Evercore 提出我們的第一個問題。

  • Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So maybe just a wrap-up question on BBH, and I appreciate all the transparency along the way. But regulators hate it, more complex, market values have fallen, I definitely went with you on the strategic merits. But I guess the question people have is, why not just walk away? It seems like you could do some really accretive stuff with the capital now and at what point do you just say, "not worth it, not as accretive, too complex, enough said."

    所以也許只是一個關於 BBH 的總結性問題,我感謝一路上的所有透明度。但監管機構討厭它,更複雜,市場價值已經下降,我絕對同意你的戰略優點。但我想人們的問題是,為什麼不走開呢?看起來你現在可以用資本做一些真正增值的事情,在什麼時候你會說,“不值得,不那麼增值,太複雜了,說得夠多了。”

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Glenn, it's Ron. Maybe needless to say, we go through that calculus that you're describing every day. And that's part of what's led to this. I mean, obviously, the regulatory environment is driving the time frame here, but what's driving our work is that trade-off. The trade-off between the opportunity to consolidate on a global basis, a very attractive firm versus what's the alternative uses of the capital, including returning it back to shareholders.

    格倫,是羅恩。也許不用說,我們每天都會進行您所描述的微積分。這就是導致這種情況的部分原因。我的意思是,很明顯,監管環境正在推動時間框架,但推動我們工作的是這種權衡。在全球範圍內進行整合的機會、一家非常有吸引力的公司與資本的其他用途(包括將其返還給股東)之間的權衡。

  • We believe there's still the possibility that we can get this -- we can structure this transaction in a way that it will work both for shareholders and to achieve that strategic objective. But as we've said in the disclosure, the likelihood of that happening is going down. So I think what you can take away from this is one of the reasons that's driving that decrease probability is the calculus that you're describing.

    我們相信我們仍然有可能實現這一點——我們可以以一種既對股東有利又能實現戰略目標的方式來構建這筆交易。但正如我們在披露中所說,發生這種情況的可能性正在下降。所以我認為你可以從中得到的是你所描述的微積分導致概率降低的原因之一。

  • Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Well, I guess we don't have to wait that much longer, so I can still have for another couple of months. Just one follow-up on -- I think you mentioned 60% of the securities portfolio has been moved into held to maturity. It shows in the smaller AOCI hits as rates go up. What's the other side of it? Like do you -- can you calculate what the NII give up or any other offsets to moving that large of a piece into held to maturity?

    好的。好吧,我想我們不必等那麼久,所以我還能再等幾個月。只是一個後續行動——我想你提到了 60% 的證券投資組合已經轉移到持有至到期。隨著利率上升,它顯示在較小的 AOCI 中。它的另一面是什麼?就像你一樣——你能計算出 NII 放棄了什麼或任何其他抵消將那麼大的一塊轉移到持有至到期嗎?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Glenn, it's Eric. We've carefully considered what portion of the investment portfolio moved to held to maturity and what amounts. But what we do, as we make that consideration is the benefit is that you largely don't give up NII, right? By and large, you're earning the coupon and whether they're treasuries or agencies or MBS, just in a different accounting form and structure, but the earnings of the corporation are the same, and that's what's quite attractive about HTM.

    格倫,是埃里克。我們仔細考慮了投資組合的哪一部分持有至到期以及金額是多少。但是我們所做的,當我們考慮的時候,好處是你基本上不會放棄 NII,對吧?總的來說,你正在賺取優惠券,無論它們是國庫券、代理機構還是 MBS,只是採用不同的會計形式和結構,但公司的收益是相同的,這就是 HTM 非常有吸引力的地方。

  • The reason why you wouldn't put the whole portfolio in HTM is partly you want some flexibility, you want to from time to time, rebalance the portfolio and you might want to rebalance 5, 10, 15 yards, and that takes an AFS construct under which to do it. And then partly, you want to make sure that you have -- you'll always have monetization at the front end to maximize and to maintain the liquidity construct you'd like. We've now put that in place. We can repo HTM securities in size. We test that in the marketplace, so we're quite comfortable.

    你不會把整個投資組合放在 HTM 中的部分原因是你想要一些靈活性,你想要不時地重新平衡投資組合,你可能想要重新平衡 5、10、15 碼,這需要一個 AFS 結構在哪做。然後部分地,你要確保你擁有 - 你將始終在前端進行貨幣化,以最大化和維持你想要的流動性結構。我們現在已經把它放到位了。我們可以回購 HTM 證券的規模。我們在市場上進行了測試,所以我們很放心。

  • But there's a point where you say, look, I'd rather sit on cash or I'd rather sit on available and for sale. And so we feel like we're in a good balance now that really provides a real positive NII trajectory. And you see that, we've guided now to 28% to 30% up in NII this year. And I've also started to signal that we're positive on the NII trajectory in 2023 and partly because of the entire investment portfolio, whether it's an AFS or HTM is contributing to that upswing.

    但是有一點你會說,看,我寧願坐在現金上,或者我寧願坐在可用和待售的位置上。因此,我們覺得我們現在處於良好的平衡狀態,這確實提供了真正積極的 NII 軌跡。你看,我們現在已經指導今年 NII 增長 28% 到 30%。而且我也開始發出信號,我們對 2023 年的 NII 軌跡持樂觀態度,部分原因是整個投資組合,無論是 AFS 還是 HTM 都為這種上升做出了貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And next, we'll go to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

    接下來,我們將與 Jefferies 一起去 Ken Usdin。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I wanted to come back to putting the deal into context with the buyback that you announced, which you have been clearly saying you'd want to get back into the buyback this quarter. So could you just help us understand the $1 billion sizing and if that has anything to put in context with, your thoughts around how the pricing and eventual outcome if the deal goes through might end up coming through? Or is it completely separate and just based on where capital sits regardless of the deal outcome?

    我想回到將這筆交易與你宣布的回購聯繫起來,你一直明確表示你希望在本季度回到回購中。那麼,您能否幫助我們了解 10 億美元的規模,如果有任何背景,您對交易完成後的定價和最終結果可能最終如何實現的想法?或者它是完全獨立的,只是基於資本所在的位置而不管交易結果如何?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Ken, it's Eric. As I've said in my prepared remarks, the buyback was larger than anticipated. And part of that is we do two things. We look at our current capital levels, which have trended towards that 13% CET1 mark that we had guided to, remember that discussion we had in the first quarter. And then partly because -- partly as we consider the capital uses over the next couple of quarters, including the possibility of Brown Brothers Investment Services transaction. And you would expect us to factor in any adjustments downward adjustments to purchase price that we would expect, and that's effectively what we've done. So it's a mix of factors, but those are the components.

    肯,是埃里克。正如我在準備好的發言中所說,回購規模超過預期。其中一部分是我們做了兩件事。我們看看我們目前的資本水平,它已經趨向於我們指導的 13% CET1 標記,請記住我們在第一季度進行的討論。然後部分是因為 - 部分是因為我們考慮未來幾個季度的資本使用,包括布朗兄弟投資服務交易的可能性。你會希望我們考慮到我們預期的購買價格的任何向下調整,而這實際上是我們所做的。所以這是多種因素的混合,但這些都是組成部分。

  • And I think we're quite pleased. We can now proceed with $1 billion. As Ron said, we we're planning on comfortably returning more than 80% of earnings to shareholders next year, quarter by quarter by quarter, which is what our medium-term targets are. And that still availed us the capacity to do a deal at an admittedly adjusted price if it's appropriate at the time.

    我認為我們很高興。我們現在可以著手處理 10 億美元。正如 Ron 所說,我們計劃明年將 80% 以上的收益輕鬆返還給股東,逐季逐季,這就是我們的中期目標。如果當時合適的話,這仍然使我們有能力以公認的調整價格進行交易。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then on the denominator side, I guess, of capital, can you just give us a little color on how you'd expect deposits to traject from here, a pretty meaningful decline in both interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing, just relative to where you're ending here, just your general outlook on your thoughts around deposit mix and flows.

    好的。然後在分母方面,我猜,資本,你能不能給我們一些顏色,說明你期望存款從這裡開始的軌跡,有息和無息的下降都非常有意義,只是相對於你在這裡結束的地方,只是你對存款組合和流動的看法的總體看法。

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. I think our deposit trends will probably be in line with some of what you're seeing in the industry. I think we're within that zone of if you look at the Fed reports, if you look at other institutions, and we've certainly begun to see that rotation out of deposits this quarter, down about 5%, both year-on-year and quarter-over-quarter adjusted for currency translation.

    是的。我認為我們的存款趨勢可能與您在行業中看到的一些趨勢一致。我認為如果你看看美聯儲的報告,如果你看看其他機構,我們就在這個範圍內,我們肯定已經開始看到本季度存款的輪換,同比下降約 5%根據貨幣換算調整年度和季度環比。

  • I think what we have seen over the last year is a series of factors that have impacted it. And this is my way to say that I can give you some guidance, but it's going to vary depending on how the factors play out. So you have U.S. dollar appreciation, and so you have a -- nondollar deposits are -- come down as a result.

    我認為我們在過去一年中看到的是一系列影響它的因素。這是我的方式,我可以給你一些指導,但它會根據因素如何發揮作用而有所不同。所以你有美元升值,所以你有一個 - 非美元存款 - 結果下降。

  • We have equity markets falling, which means the AUC/As that we custody for are coming down. And with that, investors, institutions, retail hold similarly lower cash amounts. And so part of what's happening here is the environment is actually affecting deposits somewhat independently of where we are in the rate -- with rising rates and quantitative tightening.

    我們的股票市場正在下跌,這意味著我們託管的 AUC/As 正在下降。因此,投資者、機構和散戶持有的現金數量同樣較低。因此,這裡發生的部分情況是,環境實際上在某種程度上獨立於我們的利率影響存款——利率上升和量化緊縮。

  • Now we are seeing the effects of rising rates and quantitative tightening as well. So I kind of give you that as a background because I think there are 4 or 5 factors at play here, which is more than expected. I think as we look forward, we continue to expect some deposit outflows in the fourth quarter. We expect those to be somewhat less than we saw in the third quarter, but we do expect some, and those are factored into our NII guide. And one of the reasons why we have a wider NII guide than usual is because there's a range of outcomes.

    現在我們也看到了利率上升和量化緊縮的影響。所以我把它作為背景給你,因為我認為這裡有 4 或 5 個因素在起作用,這超出了預期。我認為,在我們展望未來的同時,我們仍預計第四季度會有一些存款外流。我們預計這些會比我們在第三季度看到的要少一些,但我們確實預計會有一些,並且這些都已納入我們的 NII 指南中。我們擁有比平時更廣泛的 NII 指南的原因之一是因為有一系列的結果。

  • But we're seeing what we expected. We're seeing what we expected as we -- as rates are up, and we price carefully and maintain, I think, some healthy betas this quarter. we're seeing noninterest-bearing begin to flow out because with the higher rates, both in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. in particular, you have the difference that clients can earn.

    但我們看到了我們所期望的。我們看到了我們預期的結果 - 隨著利率上升,我們謹慎定價並維持,我認為,本季度有一些健康的貝塔。我們看到無息債券開始流出,因為美國和國際上的利率都很高。特別是在美國,客戶可以賺取差價。

  • And then one of the things we're doing with our clients is to be -- is to think about the full range of offerings for them. Sometimes it's the base account, sometimes it's special accounts with deposits. We -- if you remember, we've historically put in place deposit initiatives to have the right balance of deposits on the balance sheet. And then the other thing that this is feeding in some of our other businesses, whether it's the cash business in GA, whether it's the repo business. There's a whole set of product offerings that are that cash flows to that we're pleased to support our clients with.

    然後我們正在與客戶一起做的事情之一就是——為他們考慮全方位的產品。有時是基本賬戶,有時是有存款的特殊賬戶。我們——如果你還記得的話,我們歷來都制定了存款計劃,以便在資產負債表上保持正確的存款餘額。然後,這是我們其他一些業務的另一件事,無論是 GA 中的現金業務,還是回購業務。我們很高興為客戶提供一整套現金流量的產品。

  • So there's quite a bit going on in this area, more to come, but we're comfortable with some of these forecasts. And what I find particularly important to keep in mind is NII continues to rise even with some of these deposit outflows. And part of that is the U.S. rates that we're also familiar with. But given that so much of our balance sheet is international, those foreign rate rises are particularly helpful and those deposits are at good levels as well.

    所以在這個領域發生了很多事情,還會有更多事情發生,但我們對其中一些預測感到滿意。我發現特別要記住的是,即使其中一些存款外流,NII 仍在繼續上升。其中一部分是我們也熟悉的美國利率。但鑑於我們的資產負債表中有如此多的資產負債表是國際化的,這些外國利率的上漲特別有幫助,而且這些存款也處於良好水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

    接下來,我們將與高盛一起去亞歷克斯布洛斯坦。

  • Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

    Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

  • I was hoping we could speak a little bit more broadly around State Street's capital allocation strategy. If BBH does not go through, what's your appetite for any other deals, whether it's in the services space or asset management space? Obviously, macro conditions are pretty volatile. So I'm sure that will impact that as well. But curious how you're thinking about the trade-off between accelerating buyback or other deals. And then if you do go down the path of more buybacks, should we be thinking about the upper end of your CET1 and leverage as sort of the target to which you will go to or you might need to run with a buffer sort of on top of that given uncertain macro conditions?

    我希望我們能更廣泛地討論道富銀行的資本配置策略。如果 BBH 沒有通過,你對任何其他交易有什麼胃口,無論是在服務領域還是資產管理領域?顯然,宏觀條件非常不穩定。所以我相信這也會對此產生影響。但很好奇你是如何考慮加速回購或其他交易之間的權衡的。然後,如果你確實走上了更多回購的道路,我們是否應該考慮你的 CET1 的上限並將槓桿作為你將要達到的目標,或者你可能需要在頂部運行緩衝給定不確定的宏觀條件?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Alex, why don't I begin on this just on how we think about M&A. It's not like we have a shopping list here. BBH is a unique opportunity to consolidate the market on a global basis. And by that, I mean it's not just about adding to some particular geography, but it really does bolster us in all the major geographies that we're in. Having said that, we've got our own what we believe is a distinctive organic strategy in the servicing area, led by our Alpha proposition, which continues to grow.

    是的。亞歷克斯,為什麼我不從我們對併購的看法開始。這不像我們這裡有購物清單。 BBH 是在全球範圍內鞏固市場的獨特機會。就此而言,我的意思是它不僅僅是增加某些特定的地理區域,而且它確實在我們所在的所有主要地理區域中為我們提供了支持。話雖如此,我們已經擁有了我們自己認為獨特的有機產品服務領域的戰略,由我們的 Alpha 提議領導,該提議繼續增長。

  • There's a lot of development that was being completed this year and early next year, which will lead to a lot of new onboardings and we think even make the proposition attractive to a broader set of clients. So we always are looking in the marketplace to see if there's something that makes sense, but it's not like the money is burning a hole in our pocket. And if this doesn't work, we're immediately going to go out and come back with something else. Eric, you may want to talk just about how we think about the context of buybacks.

    今年和明年初完成了很多開發工作,這將帶來很多新的入職培訓,我們認為甚至可以讓這個提議對更廣泛的客戶群具有吸引力。所以我們總是在市場上尋找是否有一些有意義的東西,但這並不是說錢在我們口袋裡燒了一個洞。如果這不起作用,我們會立即出去,然後帶著別的東西回來。埃里克,你可能只想談談我們如何看待回購的背景。

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. And Alex, I think I'd add that we're quite conscious that we raised almost $2 billion of equity from our investors and diluted them. We certainly expect that -- if the deal doesn't proceed, that the bulk of our excess capital needs to go back to shareholders. That's deserved and I think expected, and we would deliver on that. I think in terms of capital ratios, I had said earlier this year when the economic environment felt more benign and when we had simplified and attenuated a lot of the OCI risk in the investment portfolio that we might be willing to go down to the lower end and even below the lower end of our 10% to 11% range.

    是的。亞歷克斯,我想我要補充一點,我們非常清楚我們從投資者那裡籌集了近 20 億美元的股權並稀釋了它們。我們當然希望——如果交易沒有進行,我們的大部分過剩資本需要返還給股東。這是當之無愧的,我認為這是意料之中的,我們會兌現這一點。我認為就資本比率而言,我曾在今年早些時候說過,當經濟環境感覺更加良性並且我們已經簡化和減弱了投資組合中的許多 OCI 風險時,我們可能願意降低到低端甚至低於我們 10% 至 11% 範圍的下限。

  • I think now given the economic uncertainties, we, for the time being, expect to operate in the -- towards the middle of that range, that might change over time. But for now, I think our current expectation is we have reduced the volatility in the investment portfolio, which reduces on one hand, the need for a capital buffer to some extent. On the other hand, the economic environment is much more -- has much more volatility in it, and that pushes us in the other direction. But the net of that is that I think we're quite comfortable with the 10% to 11% range and operating somewhere in the middle there.

    我認為現在考慮到經濟的不確定性,我們暫時希望在該範圍的中間運行,這可能會隨著時間的推移而改變。但就目前而言,我認為我們目前的預期是我們已經降低了投資組合的波動性,這一方面在一定程度上降低了對資本緩衝的需求。另一方面,經濟環境的波動性要大得多,這將我們推向了另一個方向。但總的來說,我認為我們對 10% 到 11% 的範圍很滿意,並且在中間的某個地方運行。

  • Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

    Alexander Blostein - Lead Capital Markets Analyst

  • Great. That's helpful. My follow-up question may be around the business side of things. You guys have a very sizable pipeline of installations on the servicing side. A lot of them are Alpha mandates, which obviously tend to be a little bit more complex. You talked to us, I think, on the last call sort of the cadence of how that's going to come through on the revenue side. But I'm just kind of curious how you would contextualize any incremental investments or expenses that will need to come with it given sort of complexity of those installations over the next 12 to 18 months.

    偉大的。這很有幫助。我的後續問題可能與事物的業務方面有關。你們在服務方面有一個非常龐大的安裝管道。其中很多是 Alpha 授權,顯然往往更複雜一些。我認為,您在最後一次電話會議上與我們談過收入方面的節奏。但我只是有點好奇,鑑於未來 12 到 18 個月內這些安裝的複雜性,您將如何將需要隨之而來的任何增量投資或費用背景化。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I'll start, Alex, on the investments. And Eric can talk you through the pattern. On the investments, there is actually ongoing development, as I mentioned earlier. And that development, much of -- some of which is being completed this year, some of which is being completed next year. But it's all part of our medium-term plan as well as our budget. So there's nothing out of the ordinary that you should expect to do this.

    是的,亞歷克斯,我將開始投資。 Eric 可以告訴您整個模式。正如我之前提到的,在投資方面,實際上有持續的發展。而這種開發,其中大部分 - 其中一些將在今年完成,其中一些將在明年完成。但這是我們中期計劃和預算的一部分。因此,您應該期望這樣做沒有什麼不尋常的。

  • And in fact, much of the development is behind us or will be behind us at year-end. These -- within the $3.4 trillion, as you would expect, it's the larger, more complex Alpha mandates in some cases, they're development partners with us where we're developing new features and functionality, which will be available not just to that particular client, but more broadly to the client base. So these are important things to get done, important things to get done right, and we think are a good use of our investment dollars because they'll result not just in being able to onboard that client, but to be able to broaden the offering.

    事實上,許多發展已經落後於我們,或者將在年底落後於我們。這些——在 3.4 萬億美元之內,正如你所期望的那樣,在某些情況下,它是更大、更複雜的 Alpha 授權,他們是我們的開發合作夥伴,我們正在開發新的特性和功能,這些特性和功能將不僅適用於那些特定的客戶,但更廣泛的客戶群。因此,這些都是需要完成的重要事情,需要正確完成的重要事情,我們認為這是對我們投資資金的一種很好的利用,因為它們不僅能夠吸引該客戶,而且能夠擴大產品範圍.

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • And then, Alex, I'd add that we certainly need to plan and begin to set up onboarding teams. Those are well underway. And so you saw a head count tick up this quarter for example. Expenses, though, were well controlled. The headcount was in our hubs in some of the lower-cost markets purposely, so we're navigating through that. But some of the expenses have to be put on in advance of -- as we're doing the onboarding in advance of the installation and the recognition of revenue and some come as the revenue comes on.

    然後,亞歷克斯,我要補充一點,我們當然需要計劃並開始建立入職團隊。這些進展順利。因此,例如,您看到本季度的人數有所增加。不過,費用控制得很好。員工人數是故意在我們的一些低成本市場的中心,所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。但是有些費用必須提前支付——因為我們在安裝和收入確認之前進行入職,有些費用是在收入出現時支付的。

  • But I think, as Ron said, all this is within our expense guidance. It will be within our expense guidance when we get to that in January for next year. And our view is that we collectively need to continue to drive margins in the right direction given our medium-term targets. That needs to be a mix of both the revenue lift we're getting from Alpha deals as well as the expense and productivity initiatives, both within the Alpha environment and across the traditional franchise. And all that has to come together to deliver on our financial commitments.

    但我認為,正如羅恩所說,所有這些都在我們的費用指導範圍內。當我們在明年 1 月達到這一點時,它將在我們的費用指導範圍內。我們的觀點是,鑑於我們的中期目標,我們需要共同繼續朝著正確的方向推動利潤率。這需要結合我們從 Alpha 交易中獲得的收入提升,以及 Alpha 環境和傳統特許經營中的費用和生產力計劃。所有這些都必須結合起來才能兌現我們的財務承諾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

    接下來,我們將與瑞銀一起去布倫南霍肯。

  • Brennan Hawken - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Financials

    Brennan Hawken - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Financials

  • I'd like to ask on BBH. It seems somewhat unusual to be getting regulatory approval before the approvals within the company. So why is that happening? And given that there's risk of deterioration, loss of talent, customers, Ron, you made reference to this during the last quarter call when you guys first said you were renegotiating. Would you have the ability to adjust price further if this process drags? And -- or has that been set already?

    我想問問BBH。在公司內部批准之前獲得監管批准似乎有些不尋常。那為什麼會這樣呢?考慮到存在惡化、人才、客戶流失的風險,羅恩,你們在上個季度的電話會議上提到了這一點,當時你們第一次說你們正在重新談判。如果這個過程拖延,你們是否有能力進一步調整價格?並且——或者已經設置好了嗎?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • On the approvals, our Board has been actively involved in this, Brennan, as has the BBH partners on their side throughout this process. So obviously, there was an approval before we announced this and in September of '21, there's an ongoing consultation with our Board, and we've walked them through modifications. But we don't have a final deal yet, largely because we have not actually gotten through the regulatory process and figured out what the actual structure would be that will satisfy all of the regulators. So it's not completely binary and that we're not talking to our Board until it's all done. But obviously, our Board needs to see the entire thing in total and be able to make that decision.

    在批准方面,我們的董事會一直積極參與其中,Brennan,BBH 合作夥伴在整個過程中都站在他們這邊。很明顯,在我們宣布這一點之前已經獲得批准,並且在 2021 年 9 月,我們正在與我們的董事會進行持續磋商,我們已經讓他們完成了修改。但我們還沒有達成最終協議,主要是因為我們還沒有真正通過監管程序,也沒有弄清楚能夠滿足所有監管機構的實際結構。所以它不完全是二元的,而且在一切完成之前我們不會與我們的董事會討論。但顯然,我們的董事會需要全面了解整個事情並能夠做出決定。

  • In terms of the ongoing kind of risk to clients and people, that's there. It continues. We are spending a lot of time with clients, as I think I've mentioned before, about half the client base is a shared client base. So these are clients that we talk to anyway. I think there's still a strong desire on the part of our clients that if this can be completed in a way that makes sense, they'd like to see it completed. So I do not worry about further client attrition.

    就客戶和人們持續存在的風險而言,就在那裡。它繼續。正如我之前提到的,我們花了很多時間與客戶打交道,大約一半的客戶群是共享客戶群。所以無論如何,這些都是我們與之交談的客戶。我認為我們的客戶仍然有強烈的願望,如果這可以以一種有意義的方式完成,他們希望看到它完成。所以我不擔心進一步的客戶流失。

  • We obviously are worried about people attrition on both sides, but largely on the BBH side, and we're monitoring that closely. And to the extent to which we felt like after the price reduction we've already negotiated that circumstances have changed sufficiently further that we needed that again, of course, we would raise up if we needed to do that.

    我們顯然擔心雙方的人員流失,但主要是在 BBH 方面,我們正在密切關注這一點。在我們已經協商過的降價之後,我們覺得情況已經發生了足夠大的變化,我們需要再次降價,當然,如果我們需要這樣做,我們會提高。

  • Brennan Hawken - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Financials

    Brennan Hawken - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Financials

  • Okay. And then second question is maybe a bit -- well, I will just come right out. So why is this so strategically compelling? I mean it seemed as though it was largely a scale deal, now it's deteriorated. You said earlier, Ron, that the accretion is probably going to be more drawn out and it's going to be lower than initially planned. It's more complicated, so you're introducing a lot of operational and legal complexity. I get it, you're lowering the price, but is this really a good use of time? Is this really a good use of management focus? Why not just understand that the environment deteriorated, the regulatory approvals didn't come through, it couldn't work as constructed, and so it's better off just to walk.

    好的。然後第二個問題可能有點——好吧,我馬上就出來。那麼為什麼這在戰略上如此引人注目呢?我的意思是,這似乎主要是一項規模交易,現在情況惡化了。你早些時候說過,羅恩,吸積可能會被拉得更遠,而且會比最初計劃的要低。它更複雜,所以你引入了大量的操作和法律複雜性。我明白了,你在降低價格,但這真的是在浪費時間嗎?這真的是對管理焦點的良好使用嗎?為什麼不明白環境變壞了,監管部門的審批沒有通過,它不能像建造的那樣工作,所以最好還是走路。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • I mean, again, I'm probably repeating myself a little bit, Brennan, here, but that's exactly what we ask ourselves every day. And you're right, it is taking a lot of management time. I think what's compelling about it is several things. One is its footprint. Many of the things that are out there or supposedly out there are rumored to be out there tend to be single geography kinds of things. And if you have a strong desire to be in that geography, maybe it is something useful, but there I would describe as at best, tactical. This one is -- adds scale to us everywhere where we are, and it really does set it apart from the others.

    我的意思是,再一次,布倫南,我可能在這裡重複了一遍,但這正是我們每天問自己的問題。你是對的,這需要大量的管理時間。我認為它的引人注目之處在於幾件事。一是它的足跡。有傳言說,許多已經存在或應該存在的事物往往是單一地理類型的事物。而且,如果您強烈希望進入該地區,也許這很有用,但我最多只能將其描述為戰術性的。這個是——在我們所處的任何地方都增加了我們的規模,它確實使它與眾不同。

  • Secondly, it's got some technology assets that we like. We've talked about those in the past. Third, it's got a set of people and professionals that we believe are equal to and sometimes even better than some of our people, and that's attractive to us. But that has to be weighed against all the factors that you and others have raised here, and we continue to do that, which is why we're not coming here saying to you, "yes, this is -- we're ready to go. We're not ready to go." It's also why we're coming here saying to you that we recognize this has gone on long enough, and that we need to bring this to a close this quarter.

    其次,它有一些我們喜歡的技術資產。我們過去談過這些。第三,我們相信它有一群人和專業人士,他們與我們的一些人不相上下,有時甚至更好,這對我們很有吸引力。但這必須與你和其他人在這裡提出的所有因素進行權衡,我們將繼續這樣做,這就是為什麼我們不會來這裡對你說,“是的,這是 - 我們準備好走吧。我們還沒準備好走。”這也是為什麼我們要來這裡告訴你,我們認識到這種情況已經持續了足夠長的時間,我們需要在本季度結束這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

    接下來,我們將訪問 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

  • Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

    Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

  • So I wanted to ask one clarifying question on NII. Some of your bank peers, they've indicated 4Q exit rate could be close to the peak this cycle just as lag deposit pricing begins to catch up with rate hikes. You noted that the '23 NII, Eric, will be up nicely year-on-year, but do you see the potential for '23 NII coming in above that annualized 4Q level, suggesting that, that fourth quarter NII guidance is not going to be representative of the peak?

    所以我想問一個關於 NII 的澄清問題。您的一些銀行同行表示,隨著滯後存款定價開始趕上加息,第四季度退出率可能接近本週期的峰值。你注意到 '23 NII,埃里克,將同比增長很好,但你是否看到 '23 NII 有可能超過年化的第四季度水平,這表明第四季度 NII 指導不會能代表峰?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • I think you're trying to get deeply into our 2023 forecast, and I think it's a little premature to do that. I mean, to be honest, let's see how deposits flow and evolve this coming quarter. Let's see whether the U.S. Central Bank and the foreign central banks continue to have the wherewithal to tame inflation because that's important, right? Or are they going to or not? So it's quite dependent upon all that.

    我認為您正試圖深入了解我們的 2023 年預測,我認為現在這樣做還為時過早。我的意思是,老實說,讓我們看看下個季度存款的流動和演變情況。讓我們看看美國中央銀行和外國中央銀行是否繼續擁有抑制通貨膨脹的資金,因為這很重要,對吧?或者他們去還是不去?所以它非常依賴於所有這些。

  • I think the reason I made my positive statements about 2023 is that we don't see fourth quarter as the quarterly peak. We think there's more of that more NII upside over subsequent quarters. We also have a balance sheet that has a mix of USD and non-USD and in some cases, we tend to have more foreign deposits. And those are areas if those foreign central banks continue to hike and address the serious inflationary environments in their geographies that give us an additional tailwind that may be different than a U.S. bank.

    我認為我對 2023 年做出積極聲明的原因是我們不認為第四季度是季度高峰。我們認為在隨後的幾個季度中,NII 的上漲空間更大。我們還有一個包含美元和非美元的資產負債表,在某些情況下,我們往往會有更多的外國存款。如果這些外國中央銀行繼續加息並解決其所在地區嚴重的通脹環境,這些領域會給我們帶來額外的順風,這可能與美國銀行不同。

  • So there's certainly momentum here. I don't want to get into fourth quarter annualized versus my current view of 2023, but I did say good continuing growth purposely. I think there's more to come on NII. But I think we'll know more in a quarter or two, to be honest, but we see a trajectory that is good and reasonably positive given what we know in the environment today.

    所以這里肯定有動力。我不想進入第四季度與我目前對 2023 年的看法相比,但我確實有意說良好的持續增長。我認為 NII 還會有更多內容。但老實說,我認為我們會在一兩個季度內了解更多,但鑑於我們今天對環境的了解,我們看到了一條良好且相當積極的軌跡。

  • Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

    Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

  • So reading the tea leaves, I may scrap my question on the expense growth algorithm and what that implies for next year. But the one area I did want to unpack on expense is the margins in the investment management segment, they're down about 600 basis points year-on-year. That's an area where you made significant progress over the last couple of years. Certainly, you're going to see some pressures given the declining market, but wanted to get a sense as to how much expense flexibility you have there? And where you think you can actually hold the line on the pretax margin for that particular business?

    所以閱讀茶葉,我可能會放棄關於費用增長算法的問題,以及這對明年意味著什麼。但我確實想在費用方面展開的一個領域是投資管理部門的利潤率,它們同比下降了約 600 個基點。這是您在過去幾年中取得重大進展的領域。當然,鑑於市場下滑,您會看到一些壓力,但想了解您在那裡有多少費用靈活性?您認為您實際上可以在什麼地方控制該特定業務的稅前利潤率?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • I think I'd start answering that question by saying we're actually quite pleased by the progress we've made in growth and margins in the Investment Management business over, call it, the last 3 years. I think it had teens level margins, if you go back in time, that we got into the 20s.

    我想我會開始回答這個問題,說我們實際上對過去 3 年我們在投資管理業務的增長和利潤率方面取得的進展感到非常高興。我認為它有十幾歲的利潤率,如果你回到過去,我們進入了 20 年代。

  • Some of that was the market uptick, which flowed through the management fee line. Some of it was a, I think, delivering strongly on flows and net new revenues was positive across the franchise. Cash as an example, continues to be a standout, but each of the three franchises have new products and offerings have been quite good.

    其中一部分是市場上漲,它流經管理費線。我認為,其中一些是在流量和淨新收入方面的強勁表現在整個特許經營中都是積極的。以 Cash 為例,它仍然很出色,但三個特許經營中的每一個都有新產品,並且提供的產品都相當不錯。

  • And I think what the team has done there well is as they have secured those flows, launched those new products, they've also managed the expense base. And so just because it was a tailwind from equity markets or fixed income markets or from flows, they've actually kept expenses remarkably flat in that environment or flattish in that environment, which I think is a testament to how they've navigated the environment.

    而且我認為團隊在那裡做得很好,因為他們已經確保了這些流量,推出了那些新產品,他們還管理了費用基礎。因此,僅僅因為這是來自股票市場或固定收益市場或流量的順風,他們實際上在那個環境中保持支出非常平穩或在那個環境中持平,我認為這證明了他們如何駕馭環境.

  • I think what you should expect is that a couple of things. If equity markets continue to operate at this level, we need to continue to work on expenses and productivity becomes an even bigger focus there as it should be across the company. I think on the flip side of that, if we get some kind of rebound in equity and fixed income markets, that plays through the asset management business financials, I would expect expenses to continue to be disciplined there and margins to certainly go back to some of the higher levels that you saw.

    我認為您應該期待的是幾件事。如果股票市場繼續在這個水平上運行,我們需要繼續努力控制費用和生產力,因為它應該成為整個公司的重點。我認為另一方面,如果股票和固定收益市場出現某種反彈,這將通過資產管理業務的財務狀況發揮作用,我預計那裡的支出將繼續受到約束,利潤率肯定會回到一定水平你看到的更高層次。

  • But I would say, I think at 31% margins, we're quite pleased with where we are. And I think there is -- depend where equity markets go, I think the trajectory will continue in a generally positive direction.

    但我想說,我認為以 31% 的利潤率,我們對自己的現狀感到非常滿意。而且我認為有 - 取決於股票市場的走向,我認為軌跡將繼續朝著普遍積極的方向發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

    接下來,我們將前往德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

  • Brian Bertram Bedell - Director in Equity Research

    Brian Bertram Bedell - Director in Equity Research

  • Just one quick cleanup on BBH. Can you close that deal, if it all works well? Can you close that on December 31 or earlier and buyback the $1 billion? And do you need to have that Tier 1 leverage ratio be within or above your target range? In other words, can you do this and be at, say, the low end of the target range just temporarily for 4Q or even below?

    只需對 BBH 進行一次快速清理。如果一切順利,你能完成這筆交易嗎?你能在 12 月 31 日或更早的時候關閉它並回購這 10 億美元嗎?您是否需要讓一級槓桿比率在您的目標範圍內或之上?換句話說,你能做到這一點,並暫時處於目標範圍的低端 4Q 甚至更低嗎?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Brian, it's Eric. I think the timing of this deal is quite uncertain given where we are. We've not been able to complete the regulatory process and there's still -- so I think -- thinking about this in months as opposed to quarters is premature. We've done the buyback calculation though fully considering the reduced price that is -- that would be part of Brown Brothers transaction.

    布賴恩,是埃里克。鑑於我們所處的位置,我認為這筆交易的時機相當不確定。我們無法完成監管流程,而且我認為,在幾個月而不是幾個季度內考慮這個問題還為時過早。我們已經完成了回購計算,儘管充分考慮了降價——這將是布朗兄弟交易的一部分。

  • And so whether the timing is quarter x or quarter y, we're comfortable proceeding with $1 billion. We're pleased to get it started in the coming days. And regardless how that plays out, be able to return, as I said, and as Ron said, comfortably more than the 80% that we've committed to throughout next year at a minimum.

    因此,無論時間是 x 季度還是 y 季度,我們都可以輕鬆地處理 10 億美元。我們很高興在未來幾天內啟動它。並且無論結果如何,都能夠像我和羅恩所說的那樣,輕鬆地超過我們明年全年承諾的 80%。

  • Brian Bertram Bedell - Director in Equity Research

    Brian Bertram Bedell - Director in Equity Research

  • Great. That's great. And then just one on the deposit betas. Maybe if you can just talk about how you see them right now as they exist in terms of like how you're defining them for both the U.S. versus the non-U.S. And then as we move into next year, maybe sort of an outlook without giving NII guidance, of course, but just sort of a range of where you think the terminal betas could be in the U.S. versus the non-U.S. even if it's a fairly wide range.

    偉大的。那太棒了。然後只有一個關於存款貝塔。也許如果你可以談談你現在如何看待它們,因為它們存在於你如何為美國和非美國定義它們,然後當我們進入明年時,也許是一種沒有前景的展望當然,提供 NII 指導,但只是你認為終端貝塔可能在美國與非美國的範圍,即使它是一個相當廣泛的範圍。

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. Let me describe it this way. And let me cover U.S. and non-U.S. to -- because both matter in a positive way for our books. I think the betas this quarter in the U.S. were in the 55% range. We're pleased to see that. Those are up from about 35% last quarter, but exactly where you'd expect us to be where we expected to be, given the uptick in rates. Next quarter, if we go from 55% this quarter to 65% beta the next quarter, we'd be quite comfortable. And then it just continues to inch up. That's just how it plays through.

    是的。讓我這樣描述吧。讓我來談談美國和非美國——因為兩者都對我們的書有積極的影響。我認為美國本季度的貝塔係數在 55% 的範圍內。我們很高興看到這一點。這些比上個季度的約 35% 有所上升,但鑑於利率上升,這正是您期望我們達到的預期水平。下個季度,如果我們從本季度的 55% 提高到下個季度的 65%,我們會很舒服。然後它繼續緩慢上升。這就是它的播放方式。

  • In euros, we're also in that 50% range as we've started to cross into positive territory for central banks, and we expect that to continue. So part of the reason for the NII forecast into fourth quarter and into next year is that we expect betas in the 50% to 60% range in euros. The market operates a little differently than the U.S., but that would be in the range.

    以歐元計算,我們也處於 50% 的範圍內,因為我們已經開始進入對中央銀行有利的區域,我們預計這種情況將繼續下去。因此,NII 預測第四季度和明年的部分原因是我們預計歐元的貝塔係數在 50% 到 60% 之間。該市場的運作方式與美國略有不同,但都在這個範圍內。

  • And then in pound sterling, betas are lower, they tend to be in the 30% to 35% range there. and then you can keep going, Aussie dollars, Canadian dollars and so forth. And we have a balance sheet that is prepared for rate rises across those currencies as well. And then you'll just see betas notch up quarter-over-quarter. I think at the terminal level, there's always some amount of lagging that you do. That's just how it happens. You never get to 100% beta or anything near that because you have some noninterest-bearing and you have some lag deposits, but we'll see. We're comfortable where we are in the 50% range going to 60%, and I think it will -- I think it will play out well for the NII and the balance sheet accordingly.

    然後在英鎊中,貝塔係數較低,它們往往在 30% 到 35% 的範圍內。然後你可以繼續,澳元,加元等等。我們的資產負債表也為這些貨幣的加息做好了準備。然後你會看到貝塔指數環比上升。我認為在終端級別,你總是會有一些滯後。事情就是這樣發生的。你永遠不會達到 100% beta 或任何接近它的東西,因為你有一些無息存款和一些滯後存款,但我們會看到。在 50% 到 60% 的範圍內,我們感到很舒服,我認為它會 - 我認為它會相應地對 NII 和資產負債表產生良好的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

    接下來,我們將與 Seaport Global 一起去 Jim Mitchell。

  • James Francis Mitchell - Research Analyst

    James Francis Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • Eric, maybe just one last question on NII, and I apologize. But as we think about big picture, Fed funds being potentially 200 basis points or more higher than 2018, European rates being positive versus negative back then. Do you see anything conceptually to suggest you should -- your NIM shouldn't be higher than back then? Or just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

    埃里克,也許只是關於 NII 的最後一個問題,我深表歉意。但當我們考慮大局時,聯邦基金可能比 2018 年高出 200 個基點或更多,當時歐洲利率為正而不為負。你有沒有看到任何概念上的建議你應該 - 你的 NIM 不應該高於當時?或者只是想了解一下您的想法。

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Jim, it's Eric. I'm a little more focused on NII than on NIM. And the reason we've done that is because we've actually changed the shape of our balance sheet over time. I mean, remember, we added some deposit initiatives, which tend to be at lower NIMs, but they are NII-accretive and positive. And we do that because sometimes we want to balance currencies around the balance sheet. We want to raise deposits where we want to land. We need to keep deposits for intraday. There are lots of reasons why we have a different mix of the balance sheet. And we've done that purposely in an engaging way with our clients over the last 2, 3 years.

    吉姆,是埃里克。與 NIM 相比,我更關注 NII。我們這樣做的原因是,隨著時間的推移,我們實際上改變了資產負債表的形狀。我的意思是,請記住,我們添加了一些存款計劃,這些計劃往往處於較低的 NIM 水平,但它們是 NII 增長和積極的。我們這樣做是因為有時我們想平衡資產負債表周圍的貨幣。我們想在我們想要落地的地方籌集存款。我們需要保留日內存款。我們有不同的資產負債表組合有很多原因。在過去的 2、3 年裡,我們有目的地以一種與客戶互動的方式做到了這一點。

  • So I don't think as a result, the balance sheet is bigger. And part of the reason we've been -- we've allowed it to be bigger is that the leverage ratio is not particularly constraining on us. And so what our intentionality is actually to maximize NII as opposed to NIM. So I think as you play that out, I think our NIMs are lower at this point than they were last time in the cycle. And I think they will -- they'll likely be below the -- the NIMs will be below the highs of the last cycle.

    所以我不認為資產負債表會因此變大。我們一直以來的部分原因——我們允許它變得更大是因為槓桿率並沒有特別限制我們。因此,我們的意圖實際上是最大化 NII 而不是 NIM。因此,我認為當您進行計算時,我認為此時我們的 NIM 低於週期中的上一次。而且我認為他們將 - 他們可能會低於 - NIMs 將低於上一個週期的高點。

  • On the other hand, I think if you calculate the forecast we've given you for NII for fourth quarter, so the next quarter that we're about to print, that will be a new high of NII relative to what we had seen in the last cycle. And so -- and that's where we're a little more focused because that's what comes back to shareholders and what creates earnings and earnings momentum that contributes to the bottom line.

    另一方面,我想如果你計算一下我們給你的第四季度 NII 的預測,那麼我們即將發布的下一個季度,NII 將是我們所看到的新高最後一個週期。因此——這就是我們更加關注的地方,因為這是對股東的回報,也是創造收益和收益勢頭的原因,有助於提高利潤。

  • James Francis Mitchell - Research Analyst

    James Francis Mitchell - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. And just maybe on the BlackRock ETF transition. How much is left? And do you see that as a material -- any kind of a material impact on forward revenues?

    好的。很公平。也許就在貝萊德 ETF 轉型中。還剩多少?您是否認為這是一種材料 - 對遠期收入有任何實質性影響?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • We've our guidance has been pretty consistent on this. We -- and I think you'll find it in our 10-Qs and Ks that we estimate that the revenue outflow is about 2 percentage points of fees. So that hasn't changed. You saw some of that begin to come out this quarter. That was worth about $5 million this quarter. If you kind of get to the full quarter amount, it will be just under $10 million for fourth quarter, and that was worth about $1 trillion of AUC/A. So that did occur, and we'll continue to keep you updated on that.

    我們的指導在這方面非常一致。我們 - 我想你會在我們的 10-Qs 和 Ks 中發現,我們估計收入流出約為費用的 2 個百分點。所以這沒有改變。你看到其中一些在本季度開始出現。這在本季度價值約 500 萬美元。如果你得到整個季度的金額,第四季度將略低於 1000 萬美元,這相當於約 1 萬億美元的 AUC/A。所以這確實發生了,我們將繼續讓您了解最新情況。

  • But as we've previously disclosed and talked about, deconversions just take time. And it'll play out sometime towards the second half of 2023 and then into 2024 will probably be the majority of it. But we'll just see. We're working closely with our -- with BlackRock. We continue to be quite pleased with all the existing business we do with them and the work we do for them in the alternative servicing area, which we're one of the largest providers and certainly help them as they want to evolve, diversify and support their plans.

    但正如我們之前披露和討論的那樣,去轉換只是需要時間。它會在 2023 年下半年的某個時候結束,然後到 2024 年可能是其中的大部分時間。但我們拭目以待。我們正在與貝萊德密切合作。我們繼續對我們與他們開展的所有現有業務以及我們在替代服務領域為他們所做的工作感到非常滿意,我們是最大的供應商之一,當然會幫助他們,因為他們想要發展、多樣化和支持他們的計劃。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

    接下來,我們將與 RBC 一起去 Gerard Cassidy。

  • Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

    Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

  • Eric, can you remind us, you talked a little bit about it in your prepared remarks about fee revenues, the pricing pressure that you see every year. Can you remind us if that number has changed a bit at all? And second, as part of that, I think you've also indicated in the past, you needed a certain amount of assets under custody to neutralize that pressure. And I don't remember, I think it was $1.3 billion, but I could be wrong of new business wins to neutralize that downward pricing pressure.

    埃里克,你能提醒我們嗎,你在準備好的關於費用收入的評論中談到了一點,你每年都會看到定價壓力。如果這個數字有一點變化,你能提醒我們嗎?其次,作為其中的一部分,我想你過去也曾表示,你需要一定數量的託管資產來抵消這種壓力。我不記得了,我認為是 13 億美元,但我可能錯了,因為新業務的勝利可以抵消價格下行的壓力。

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Gerard, let me start that, and it is an area that we continue to work on. The pricing headwinds are just a condition of our industry. Why? Because as you remember, pricing is AUM or a AUC/A based, and so as equity markets go up, clients expect some of that to come back to them. The pricing headwinds on an aggregate basis in the servicing fee line are about 2 percentage points of headwinds a year. And while we saw that bubble in 2017, '18, '19, that's come back down, that ticked up and then it's been well managed back down to that 2% or so level. And that's what we are seeing today. We're not seeing anything different than that, and it's well within our expectations.

    杰拉德,讓我開始,這是我們繼續努力的領域。定價逆風只是我們行業的一個條件。為什麼?因為正如您所記得的那樣,定價是基於 AUM 或 AUC/A,因此隨著股市上漲,客戶希望其中的一些回報給他們。服務費項目中總的定價逆風約為每年逆風的 2 個百分點。雖然我們在 2017 年、18 年、19 年看到了泡沫,但它又回落了,然後又回升了,然後它得到了很好的控制,回到了 2% 左右的水平。這就是我們今天所看到的。我們沒有看到任何不同之處,這完全符合我們的預期。

  • In terms of wins, we always want to focus on net new business and for net new business to drive a positive impact on the revenues as they did this quarter. I was clear in my prepared remarks that net new business was positive. We had some nice wins. We actually had some nice wins and nice fee rates, right, because both matter to your point. The benchmark I've put out there is that we expect about $1.5 trillion of AUC/A wins a year to be in a good positive direction and trajectory for net new business.

    就勝利而言,我們始終希望專注於淨新業務和淨新業務,以像本季度那樣對收入產生積極影響。我在準備好的發言中明確表示,淨新業務是積極的。我們取得了一些不錯的勝利。我們實際上取得了一些不錯的勝利和不錯的費用率,對吧,因為兩者對您來說都很重要。我在那裡提出的基準是,我們預計每年大約 1.5 萬億美元的 AUC/A 勝利將朝著淨新業務的良好積極方向和軌跡發展。

  • But to be honest, as the CFO, I would like to see a little more and you've seen last year was particularly strong. This year, year-to-date, I think we're comfortably -- we're already comfortably at that level, and we still have another quarter to go. So the sales momentum continues. And what I find important is it continues to cross both our traditional cost and accounting business and our Alpha offerings, and so it's been broad-based.

    但說實話,作為首席財務官,我希望看到更多,你看到去年特別強勁。今年,年初至今,我認為我們很舒服——我們已經很舒服地處於那個水平,而且我們還有一個季度要走。因此,銷售勢頭仍在繼續。我發現重要的是它繼續跨越我們傳統的成本和會計業務以及我們的 Alpha 產品,因此它具有廣泛的基礎。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Gerard, what I would add is on the topic of pricing. We mentioned to you at the end of the second quarter that we launched a targeted repricing initiative. That is well underway, and it's focused on the areas of high value or where costs are increasing higher than in other places, and that is intended to -- is to achieve margin preservation. In other words, to offset the cost of delivering something high value or to offset the increasing costs in areas, for example, where we have disproportionate market data and things like that. So that initiative is well underway. When we talked to you last time, it just launched, so we were in the dozens of clients. Now we're in conversations with a triple-digit number, so we're pleased with that progress, too.

    杰拉德,我要補充的是關於定價的話題。我們在第二季度末向您提到,我們啟動了有針對性的重新定價計劃。這一切都在順利進行,它專注於高價值領域或成本增長高於其他地方的領域,其目的是實現利潤率保護。換句話說,為了抵消交付高價值產品的成本或抵消某些領域不斷增加的成本,例如,我們擁有不成比例的市場數據等。因此,該倡議正在順利進行。當我們上次與您交談時,它剛剛啟動,所以我們有幾十個客戶。現在我們正在與一個三位數的數字進行對話,所以我們也對這一進展感到滿意。

  • Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

    Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

  • And has it been well received or understood, I should say, nobody likes price increases? But are the clients' understanding of why this conversation has to take place?

    它是否受到歡迎或理解,我應該說,沒有人喜歡漲價?但是客戶是否理解為什麼必須進行這種對話?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think understood is the right word, Gerard. I think that these are sophisticated institutions themselves. They see what's going on. So I think it's been, for the most part, understood.

    是的。我認為理解是正確的詞,杰拉德。我認為這些機構本身就是複雜的。他們看到發生了什麼。所以我認為在很大程度上,人們已經理解了這一點。

  • Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

    Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

  • Very good. And then, Eric, as a follow-up, can you remind us what percentage of assets under custody or under management are variable rate-priced products, meaning your customers pay basis points on the assets under custody, and so therefore, to your point, when the value goes up and down, obviously, it affects revenues?

    很好。然後,埃里克,作為後續行動,你能否提醒我們託管或管理資產中有多少百分比是可變利率定價產品,這意味著你的客戶為託管資產支付基點,因此,你的觀點,當價值上下波動時,顯然會影響收入?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. It's a bit of a mix across different segments and across geographies. But a good rule of thumb is 50%, 55% are asset under custody based, so move up and down with market. There's another 20% that -- of the pricing tends to be based on transactional activity, and we actually saw transactions volumes, DTCC trades, wire transfers, derivatives, transactions and so forth come down this quarter. And then the last 20%, 25% tend to be relatively fixed or sometimes semi-fixed, the number of funds you custody for or some flat fees.

    是的。它有點混合了不同的細分市場和不同的地域。但一個好的經驗法則是 50%,55% 是基於託管資產,因此隨著市場上下波動。還有 20% 的定價往往基於交易活動,我們實際上看到交易量、DTCC 交易、電匯、衍生品、交易等在本季度有所下降。然後是最後的 20%、25% 往往是相對固定的,有時是半固定的,你託管的資金數量或一些固定費用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay. Next, we'll go to Mike Brown with KBW.

    好的。接下來,我們將與 KBW 一起去 Mike Brown。

  • Michael C. Brown - Associate

    Michael C. Brown - Associate

  • I guess on BBH, I suppose it's been a while since we've gotten a financial update on the business and how it's performed in this volatile environment year-to-date. And clearly, there's a possibility that we have a resolution that could end up moving forward with the acquisition. So as we think about our models here and getting those kind of aligned with how BBH is performing, anything you can share on how the company has performed year-to-date?

    我想在 BBH 上,我想我們已經有一段時間沒有獲得有關該業務的財務更新以及它在今年迄今的這種動盪環境中的表現。很明顯,我們有可能達成一項最終推進收購的決議。因此,當我們在這裡考慮我們的模型並使這些模型與 BBH 的表現保持一致時,您可以分享公司今年迄今的表現嗎?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes, we're obviously monitoring the business performance closely, monthly, quarterly. And I think it's -- you should expect -- you can go back to some of the materials that we had shared a year ago, September, as the base case. But you could take that, Mike, and extrapolate some of what you've seen in our book of business, right? We're an asset management-oriented custodian.

    是的,我們顯然正在每月、每季度密切監控業務績效。我認為這是——你應該預料到——你可以回到我們一年前 9 月分享的一些材料作為基本案例。但是邁克,你可以接受這一點,並推斷出你在我們的業務手冊中看到的一些內容,對嗎?我們是一家以資產管理為導向的託管人。

  • You can even look at some of our peers with as benchmark. And I think you'd find what we've seen, which is that there's a sharp boost in NII, in their book or NII plus fees because of the mix of programs that they run for their clients' cash, offset -- partially offset, I'd say, with some downdraft in servicing fee rates, equity in bond markets. And then you'd see a bit of uptick on the FX services kind of business.

    您甚至可以將我們的一些同行作為基準。而且我認為你會發現我們所看到的,即 NII 在他們的賬簿或 NII 加上費用中有一個急劇的增長,因為他們為客戶的現金運行的程序組合,抵消 - 部分抵消,我會說,隨著服務費率的下降,債券市場的股票。然後你會看到外匯服務類業務有所增長。

  • So I think it's ours and other large custodians are a parallel to what you've seen. And so it's something we're considering. But as we talked about earlier, we're conscious that it's -- that we need to think about this from a couple of different perspectives. But it's performing in line with what we and you would expect at this point.

    所以我認為這是我們的,其他大型託管人與您所看到的類似。所以這是我們正在考慮的事情。但正如我們之前談到的,我們意識到這是——我們需要從幾個不同的角度來考慮這個問題。但它的表現符合我們和您目前的預期。

  • Michael C. Brown - Associate

    Michael C. Brown - Associate

  • Okay. Understood, Eric. Maybe just one last cleanup one for me. How should we think about how the unrealized losses on the AFS portfolio could -- should accrete back over the next, call it, 12 to 24 months as we think about your capital ratio or how that will impact the capital ratios over that time period?

    好的。明白了,埃里克。也許對我來說只是最後一次清理。我們應該如何考慮 AFS 投資組合的未實現損失 - 應該如何在下一個,稱之為 12 到 24 個月內累積,因為我們考慮您的資本比率或這將如何影響該時間段的資本比率?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. It is part of our capital forecasting now. So -- and it was actually included in some of the buyback and capital return estimates that we provided not only for the fourth quarter, but also for our intentions related to next year. I think this quarter, the accretion was worth $60 million or so of capital, and that's just the reversal of those, of that mark accreting back as the bonds mature. There tends to be a little lumpiness to it, but that's the start of the accretion.

    是的。它現在是我們資本預測的一部分。所以 - 它實際上包含在我們不僅為第四季度提供的一些回購和資本回報估計中,而且還包括我們與明年相關的意圖。我認為本季度,增加了價值 6000 萬美元左右的資本,而這只是那些的逆轉,隨著債券到期,該標記又增加了。它往往有一點點腫塊,但這是吸積的開始。

  • And so it did provide some amount of modest tailwind, and we'll certainly factor that in, right? Because just like earnings create an opportunity to return capital to shareholders, the accretion does as well, and that will be part of -- that builder capital ratios, which then we can share back with shareholders.

    所以它確實提供了一些適度的順風,我們當然會考慮到這一點,對吧?因為就像收益創造了將資本返還給股東的機會一樣,增長也是如此,這將成為構建資本比率的一部分,然後我們可以與股東分享。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

    接下來,我們將與富國銀行證券公司的邁克梅奧會面。

  • Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

    Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

  • Just to clarify. So in the next 10 weeks, we should either expect you to say that you'll proceed with the BBH deal or that you won't be proceeding and maybe there'll be an extra $2 billion buyback. Am I interpreting that correctly?

    只是為了澄清。因此,在接下來的 10 週內,我們應該期待您說您將繼續進行 BBH 交易,或者您不會繼續進行,並且可能會有額外的 20 億美元回購。我的解釋正確嗎?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • What you should take away from what we've said, Mike, is that by the end of this quarter, we will have a decision on whether to proceed forward or not to proceed forward. On the buyback, first, we need a Board authorization for further buyback and we'll communicate what we're intending on buybacks after that authorization.

    邁克,你應該從我們所說的話中得出的結論是,到本季度末,我們將決定是否繼續推進。在回購方面,首先,我們需要獲得董事會授權才能進一步回購,我們將在獲得授權後就回購計劃進行溝通。

  • Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

    Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

  • Okay. And just I know that the first question of this call was why don't just walk away and that's been the topic. Let me just take the flip side, just I'm sure you've invested a lot of resources and time and thought into this. Is the real issue, just the regulators? And I'm just wondering, it's like roughly what, like 10% of your size, other G-SIFIs either 10x to 15x larger.

    好的。我只知道這次電話會議的第一個問題是為什麼不走開,這就是主題。讓我談談另一面,只是我確定您已經投入了大量資源和時間並對此進行了思考。真正的問題是監管機構嗎?我只是想知道,其他 G-SIFI 大約是你體型的 10%,大 10 到 15 倍。

  • I mean, when I worked at the Fed 30 years ago, it all must be considered de minimis, right? I mean it's -- and I'm just trying to figure out the change. We all know the change in mindset as it relates to mergers generally. But I'm just wondering, does this put you at a permanent strategic penalty box that you can't pursue any mergers. Or is it something unique to this deal? Now I know you can't talk in particular about this deal in general, but can you make any broader statements like when G-SIFIs do this or G-SIFIs do that, it gets extra scrutiny or it's not as easy to get through anymore?

    我的意思是,當我 30 年前在美聯儲工作時,這一切都必須被視為最低限度,對吧?我的意思是 - 我只是想弄清楚變化。我們都知道思維方式的變化,因為它通常與合併有關。但我只是想知道,這是否會讓你陷入永久的戰略禁區,你無法進行任何合併。或者這是這筆交易的獨特之處?現在我知道你不能具體談論一般的這筆交易,但你能做任何更廣泛的陳述嗎? ?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Mike, what I would say is that the timing of our announcement in this deal in retrospect, probably couldn't have come at a worst time because if you think about the regulatory agencies, many of them, to some extent, were going through some kind of personnel change. So that itself has slowed things down. In some cases, it's driven a very significant change in philosophy.

    是的,邁克,我想說的是,回想起來,我們在這筆交易中宣布的時間可能不會是在最糟糕的時候,因為如果你考慮監管機構,他們中的許多人在某種程度上都會去通過某種人事變動。所以這本身就放慢了速度。在某些情況下,它會推動哲學發生非常重大的變化。

  • Whether that change in philosophy will be permanent or not, I don't know. I'd like to think not. But to answer, I think the number of your question is, did anything change for us beyond the regulatory situation? The answer is no. I mean we have -- for all the reasons that we've stated to you going back to September of last year, we feel like the deal is strategically compelling.

    我不知道哲學上的這種變化是否會是永久性的。我想不會。但要回答,我想你的問題是,除了監管情況之外,我們有什麼變化嗎?答案是不。我的意思是,我們已經——出於去年 9 月我們向您陳述的所有原因,我們認為這筆交易在戰略上具有吸引力。

  • In terms of longer term, what does this mean for our position. I mean, again, that's something that we think about, and that's something that we certainly have conversations about with our primary regulator. And I think there's some sympathy to all that. But I don't want to talk about something in the abstract beyond the transaction that we're in, which is the BBH deal. It's not all regulators. It's a subset, and it's a situation that we're going to work our way through, but work our way through very cognizant of what it means for our shareholders, what it means for clients, et cetera.

    從長遠來看,這對我們的立場意味著什麼。我的意思是,這也是我們考慮的事情,而且我們肯定會與我們的主要監管機構就此進行對話。我認為對所有這些都有一些同情。但我不想抽像地談論我們正在進行的交易之外的事情,這就是 BBH 交易。並非所有監管機構。這是一個子集,這是我們將要解決的情況,但我們要非常清楚這對我們的股東意味著什麼,對客戶意味著什麼,等等。

  • Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

    Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

  • And then last follow-up on this. Is there anything that you can do to help control the outcome at this time? Or is it simply based on the analysis by the regulators?

    然後是對此的最後跟進。此時您有什麼可以幫助控制結果的嗎?還是僅僅基於監管機構的分析?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, that -- I mean, we've talked about modifications to the transaction and the modifications are meant to meet either regulatory concern or to navigate or to do what we believe is required to navigate through regulatory concerns. So that's what we're up to now.

    好吧,我的意思是,我們已經討論了對交易的修改,這些修改是為了滿足監管問題或導航或做我們認為需要通過監管問題導航的事情。這就是我們現在所做的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

    接下來,我們將與摩根士丹利一起去 Betsy Graseck。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • Just a couple of quick follow-ups. One, I know you've had some M&I charges, merger and integration charges over the past few quarters. I mean if any of that is for the BBH deal, was there anything in a walkaway that you would be refunded for? I'm guessing the answer is no, but I just want to make sure I understand how that works.

    只是幾個快速跟進。第一,我知道你在過去幾個季度有一些 M&I 費用、合併和整合費用。我的意思是,如果其中有任何一項是針對 BBH 交易的,那麼在走道上有什麼東西可以退款嗎?我猜答案是否定的,但我只是想確保我了解它是如何工作的。

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Betsy, it's Eric. No, those are incurred charges that are about primarily our staffing and then some of the service providers. But we've also -- what we have done is avoided some of the -- obviously, there are costs that are continuing on deal closing, some of the advisory fees, et cetera, those have not played through there, and those would not be incurred. So those are kind of the base level expenses. And there's no tail on those by and large.

    貝琪,是埃里克。不,這些是產生的費用,主要是我們的人員配置,然後是一些服務提供商。但我們也 - 我們所做的是避免了一些 - 顯然,在交易結束時會繼續產生成本,一些諮詢費等等,那些沒有在那裡發揮作用,那些不會招致。所以這些都是基本費用。總的來說,那些沒有尾巴。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • Right. Okay. And is it possible to size how much of those were for or have been for BBH or not?

    正確的。好的。是否有可能確定其中有多少是用於或已經用於 BBH 的?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Since earlier this year, they've primarily been around the BBH transaction work.

    自今年早些時候以來,他們主要圍繞 BBH 交易工作。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • Okay. And then we've had 2 quarters of very strong dollar performance here, dollar strengthening Q-on-Q. And I just -- I see it in the deck, the ins and outs on, the drag on revenues, the benefit to expenses, a little bit of a drag on the AUC, AUM volumes, you've got some benefit from volatility in the trading line. So I just wanted to get your sense of how has the dollar strengthening all in impacted you? And how do you think about managing, just generally speaking?

    好的。然後我們在這裡有兩個季度非常強勁的美元表現,美元在 Q-on-Q 上走強。我只是——我在甲板上看到了它,來龍去脈,對收入的拖累,對支出的好處,對 AUC 的一點拖累,AUM 數量,你從波動中得到了一些好處交易線。所以我只是想了解一下美元走強對您有何影響?一般來說,您如何看待管理?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. Betsy, it's Eric. What I described to you is that the dollar has an effect as do all the currencies on our P&L and balance sheet, but it's relatively symmetric and, I'll say, almost neutral. And I say that in EBIT terms and in balance sheet terms, it -- dollar strengthening reduces revenues but also reduces the expenses, not in all currencies and all the time, but it tends to have almost an EBIT-neutral impact on the P&L.

    是的。貝琪,是埃里克。我向您描述的是,美元對我們的損益表和資產負債表上的所有貨幣都有影響,但它是相對對稱的,而且我會說,幾乎是中性的。我說,就息稅前利潤和資產負債表而言,美元走強減少了收入,但也減少了支出,並非所有貨幣和所有時間都如此,但它往往對損益表產生幾乎與息稅前利潤無關的影響。

  • And then on the balance sheet, you also have a similar effect whereas deposits are revalued downwards in foreign jurisdictions as U.S. appreciates, so are the assets in those jurisdictions, and so you have some symmetry. So by and large, it's, I'll call it, roughly neutral, which is why we don't do any particular hedging on it because we find that we can manage through it in a comfortable manner except that it makes our reporting to all of you in the analyst and investment community a little more complicated, but that's just what needs to happen.

    然後在資產負債表上,你也有類似的效果,隨著美國升值,外國司法管轄區的存款被重估,這些司法管轄區的資產也是如此,所以你有一些對稱性。所以總的來說,我稱之為大致中性,這就是為什麼我們不對其進行任何特別的對沖,因為我們發現我們可以以一種舒適的方式管理它,除了它使我們向所有人報告分析師和投資界的你們中的一些人稍微複雜一些,但這正是需要發生的事情。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • And when you think about the footprint that you have today and the effort to continue to get scale in that footprint, is the international exposure strategically important from a diversification perspective? Or do you feel that the growth outlook for the non-U.S. markets is higher, just wondering.

    當您考慮您今天擁有的足跡以及繼續擴大足跡規模的努力時,從多元化的角度來看,國際曝光在戰略上是否重要?還是您覺得非美國市場的增長前景更高,只是想知道。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Betsy, it's Ron. Let me take that. I would say that we've got a good geographic mix now. And so the way we think about it in virtually all of our locations, it's not like we're not at minimum efficient scale, but to the extent to which we can achieve more scale there, we'd like that. I think in general, the non-U.S. markets have continued in most circumstances, not all, to grow faster than U.S. markets on balance. If we could get a little bit more there, we'd like that.

    貝琪,是羅恩。讓我拿那個。我會說我們現在有一個很好的地理組合。因此,我們在幾乎所有地點考慮它的方式,並不是說我們沒有達到最低有效規模,而是我們可以在那裡實現更大規模的程度,我們希望如此。我認為總的來說,非美國市場在大多數情況下(並非全部)繼續比美國市場總體上增長得更快。如果我們能在那裡多做一點,我們會喜歡的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And next, we'll go to Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

    接下來,我們將與摩根大通一起前往 Vivek Juneja。

  • Vivek Juneja - Senior Equity Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Sorry to beat a dead horse, but going back to BBH. Given that you've talked about buying back $1 billion of stock, the deal value was $3.5 billion, that's a pretty substantial percentage. Would you still be buying the full entity you had intended to when you announced the deal? Or is there some elimination of a part of it and flip it the other way? Could you buy just a piece of it? Or is it only available as a whole thing?

    很抱歉打敗一匹死馬,但要回到 BBH。鑑於你談到回購 10 億美元的股票,交易價值為 35 億美元,這是一個相當可觀的百分比。當你宣布交易時,你還會購買你打算購買的完整實體嗎?或者是否有一些消除它的一部分並以另一種方式翻轉它?可以只買一塊嗎?還是只能作為一個整體使用?

  • Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

    Eric Walter Aboaf - CFO & Vice Chairman

  • Vivek, it's Eric. The kind of the outlines, the perimeter of the deal with Brown Brothers hasn't really changed. It's around their investment services business. That's the business that we're attracted to, and that's the one that they'd like to transact. So there's no -- no, there's not been any real change there.

    維維克,是埃里克。那種輪廓,與布朗兄弟的交易範圍並沒有真正改變。它圍繞著他們的投資服務業務。那是我們被吸引的業務,也是他們想要交易的業務。所以沒有 - 不,那裡沒有任何真正的變化。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. And Vivek, we were never buying the whole business, and it was...

    是的。而 Vivek,我們從來沒有買下整個業務,它是……

  • Vivek Juneja - Senior Equity Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Senior Equity Analyst

  • No, what I meant was the whole investment services business. Could you buy a piece of it since it's different geographies, given the regulatory complexity to sort of -- if there are geographies that are more attractive and more difficult to replicate on your own?

    不,我的意思是整個投資服務業務。你能買一塊嗎,因為它是不同的地理位置,考慮到監管的複雜性 - 如果有更具吸引力且更難以自己複製的地理位置?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I suppose that's something we could explore, Vivek. It's -- then the attraction goes down even more. So -- and not clear that, that accomplishes what Brown Brothers itself is trying to accomplish, which is they'd like to exit the business, not have even a smaller bit than they already have now.

    是的。我想這是我們可以探索的東西,Vivek。它——然後吸引力下降得更多。所以——但不清楚的是,這實現了 Brown Brothers 本身正在努力實現的目標,即他們想要退出該業務,而不是比他們現在擁有的更小。

  • Vivek Juneja - Senior Equity Analyst

    Vivek Juneja - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Ron, I want to go back to a different topic. You mentioned about the price increase discussions you're having and you said the operative word is understood with your clients. Should I interpret understood as understood and agreeing to it? Or understood but not necessarily open to it and shopping it around with other providers?

    羅恩,我想回到另一個話題。你提到了你正在進行的價格上漲討論,你說你的客戶理解這個關鍵詞。我應該將理解理解為理解並同意嗎?還是了解但不一定願意接受並與其他提供商一起購買?

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So I would say, again, this has been highly targeted, Vivek, so it's not like we've said, there's an x percent across the board kind of thing. We've really tied it to, one, where our costs are under the most pressure; and two, where there's high-value added delivered to the client. And so I think you should interpret understood as we understand why you're asking for this. There's certainly some talk around it and is that the right number, et cetera. But I would say in more cases than not, but far more cases than that, we're getting agreement on it.

    是的。所以我想再說一次,這是高度針對性的,Vivek,所以它不像我們說的那樣,有一個 x% 的事情。我們真的把它與,一個,我們的成本壓力最大的地方聯繫在一起;第二,向客戶交付高附加值。所以我認為你應該理解為我們理解你為什麼要求這個。肯定有一些關於它的討論,是正確的數字等等。但我想說的是,在更多情況下,但遠不止於此,我們正在就此達成一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Ron O'Hanley for any additional or closing remarks.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給 Ron O'Hanley,以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

  • Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

    Ronald Philip O’Hanley - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, thank you, operator, and thanks to all of you for joining us on the call.

    好吧,謝謝接線員,也感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與,並請您斷開您的線路。