Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised this call is being recorded today, January 24, 2024, and your participation implies consent to our recording this call. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次通話將於今天（2024 年 1 月 24 日）進行錄音，您的參與即表示同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，請中斷連線。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 David Lipschitz。請繼續。

Thank you, Holly. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics; Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Barry Schneider, President and Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝你，霍莉。早上好，歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中，並將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上重播。今天的電話會議由 Steel Dynamics 董事長兼執行長 Mark Millett 主持。 Theresa Wagler，執行副總裁兼財務長；以及總裁兼營運長巴里·施奈德。

The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually. Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward-looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets, the aluminum industry, the use of estimates and assumptions in connection with anticipated project returns and our steel, metals recycling and fabrication businesses as well as to general business and economic conditions.

我們高級領導團隊的其他成員將單獨加入我們的電話會議。今天的一些陳述僅代表當前情況，可能具有前瞻性和預測性，通常前面帶有相信、期望、預期或類似含義的詞語。如果實際結果有所不同，它們將受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的保護。此類陳述涉及與整合或啟動新資產、鋁業、與預期項目回報和我們的鋼鐵、金屬回收和製造業務以及一般業務和經濟狀況相關的估計和假設的使用相關的風險和不確定性。

Examples of these are described in the related press release as well as in our annual filed SEC Form 10-K under the headings Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors found on the Internet at www.sec.gov, and if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10-Q. You will also find any referenced non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics Reports Fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

這些範例在相關新聞稿以及我們每年提交的SEC 表格10-K 中的「前瞻性陳述和風險因素」標題下進行了描述，可在互聯網www.sec.gov 上找到，如果適用，還可在任何在後續版本中找到。 SEC 表格 10-Q。您還可以在昨天發布的題為“Steel Dynamics 報告 2023 年第四季度和全年業績”的新聞稿中找到任何引用的非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標一致。現在我很高興將電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us on our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. As you saw in our release, our teams achieved a strong annual 2023 financial and operational performance. I think most gratifying was achieving our best safety year with the lowest recordable incident rate ever. I want to applaud and congratulate all the teams because that is a monumental effort put in to get there.

謝謝你，大衛。大家，早安。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，我們的團隊在 2023 年取得了強勁的年度財務和營運表現。我認為最令人欣慰的是我們實現了最好的安全年以及有史以來最低的可記錄事故率。我想向所有團隊表示鼓掌和祝賀，因為這是為實現這一目標所做的巨大努力。

Steel shipments were a record 12.8 million tons. I think it needs to be emphasized that we've got 3 million tons yet of additional shipping capability to leverage. We have the second best year for revenues of $18.8 billion and cash flow from operations of $3.5 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.7 billion. I think the year clearly demonstrated the through-cycle earnings resilience of our business model as manifest by a diverse value-add product portfolio, supported by a superior operating culture, driving world-class low-cost operations.

鋼材出貨量達到創紀錄的 1,280 萬噸。我認為需要強調的是，我們還有 300 萬噸的額外運輸能力可供利用。我們的收入為 188 億美元，營運現金流為 35 億美元，位居第二。調整後 EBITDA 為 37 億美元。我認為這一年清楚地展示了我們業務模式的整個週期盈利彈性，這體現在多元化的增值產品組合，並得到卓越運營文化的支持，推動世界一流的低成本運營。

I can't be more pleased at Sinton. Sinton is showing significant operating improvement was EBITDA positive in December with a clear path to profitability in the first quarter of 2024 and thereafter. We're also achieving fast-paced progress on our aluminum flat-rolled investments. There continues to be strong commercial support for a new and innovative supply chain solution from Steel Dynamics, where the aluminum industry is considering a well-known and highly regarded metals producer.

我對辛頓感到非常滿意。 Sinton 的營運狀況顯著改善，12 月 EBITDA 為正值，並為 2024 年第一季及此後的盈利提供了明確的路徑。我們的鋁壓延材投資也取得了快速進展。 Steel Dynamics 的新型創新供應鏈解決方案繼續提供強大的商業支持，鋁業正在考慮將其作為知名且備受推崇的金屬生產商。

I'm incredibly proud of the Steel Dynamics team. They are the foundation of our company, and they drive our success. And to be honest, they inspire me, (inaudible) and commitment to the SDI family during the recent holiday parties was absolutely just simply humbling. And that is why we are so focused on providing the very best for their health, safety and welfare. We're actively engaged in safety at all times and at every level, keeping it top of mind in an active conversation each and every day. As I already suggested, with our focus, the team's safety performance was a record low incident rate in 2023.

我為 Steel Dynamics 團隊感到無比自豪。他們是我們公司的基礎，也是我們成功的動力。說實話，他們激勵了我（聽不清楚），並且在最近的節日派對上對 SDI 家族的承諾絕對讓我感到謙卑。這就是為什麼我們如此專注於為他們的健康、安全和福祉提供最好的服務。我們始終在各個層面積極關注安全議題，並在每天的正向對話中始終將其放在首位。正如我已經提到的，在我們的關注下，團隊的安全績效在 2023 年創下了歷史最低的事故率。

Obviously, though, there's more to do. We will not rest until we consistently achieve our goal of 0 injuries. With that said, I will hand it to Theresa, who will then bat the ball to Barry, and then back to me to finish up. So Theresa?

但顯然，還有更多工作要做。在我們持續實現零傷害目標之前，我們不會休息。話雖如此，我會將球交給特蕾莎，然後她將球傳給巴里，然後再傳回給我完成比賽。那麼特蕾莎？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us today. In addition to the achievements Mark just mentioned, the teams also achieved our third best year for operating income of $3.2 billion and net income of $2.5 billion or $14.64 per diluted share. Cash flow from operations and liquidity of $3.5 billion and a 3-year after-tax return on invested capital of 32% a truly great performance. My sincere thank you and congratulations to our entire team.

謝謝你，馬克。大家，早安。感謝您今天和我們在一起。除了馬克剛才提到的成就外，團隊還實現了我們第三個最好的年份，營業收入為 32 億美元，淨利潤為 25 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 14.64 美元。來自營運和流動性的現金流為 35 億美元，3 年稅後投資資本回報率為 32%，這是一個真正出色的表現。我衷心感謝您並祝賀我們整個團隊。

As for the fourth quarter of 2023, net income was $424 million or $2.61 per diluted share with adjusted EBITDA of $659 million. Fourth quarter 2023 revenues of $4.2 billion and operating income of $519 million were lower than sequential third quarter results driven by seasonally lower volume and realized steel and steel fabrication pricing.

截至 2023 年第四季度，淨利潤為 4.24 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 2.61 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 6.59 億美元。 2023 年第四季的營收為 42 億美元，營業收入為 5.19 億美元，低於第三季的連續業績，原因是季節性銷售下降以及已實現的鋼鐵和鋼鐵製造定價。

Our steel operations generated operating income of $365 million in the fourth quarter lower than sequential third quarter results due to lower realized flat-rolled steel pricing. Our steel shipments remained steady at 3.1 million tons. Our 4 new flat-rolled coating lines have or will begin operating this quarter increasing our higher-margin value-added product mix by an additional 1 million tons, making our capacity in value-added and flat roll at 7 million tons on the coating lines.

由於實現的扁鋼定價較低，我們的鋼鐵業務在第四季度的營業收入為 3.65 億美元，低於第三季的連續業績。我們的鋼材出貨量穩定在310萬噸。我們的 4 條新平卷塗裝線已或將在本季度開始運營，使我們的高利潤增值產品組合增加 100 萬噸，使我們的塗裝線增值平卷產能達到 700 萬噸。

For the full year of 2023, operating income from our steel operations was $1.9 billion with record annual shipments of 12.8 million tons. For those of you that track our flat-rolled shipments in more specificity, hot-rolled coil and P&O shipments were 927,000 tons, cold-rolled shipments 124,000 tons and coated shipments of 1,192,000 tons. For metals recycling, fourth quarter operating income was $6 million due to seasonally lower volume in nonferrous metal spread compression.

2023 年全年，我們鋼鐵業務的營業收入為 19 億美元，年出貨量達到創紀錄的 1,280 萬噸。對於那些更具體地追蹤我們的扁鋼發貨量的人來說，熱軋捲和 P&O 發貨量為 927,000 噸，冷軋發貨量為 124,000 噸，塗層發貨量為 1,192,000 噸。對於金屬回收，由於有色金屬價差壓縮，第四季度營業收入為 600 萬美元。

For the full year, operating income from our metals recycling operations was $108 million, lower than prior year results based on decreased ferrous scrap pricing more than offsetting higher volume. We are the largest nonferrous and ferrous metals recycler in all of North America, recycling aluminum, copper and other metals.

全年，我們的金屬回收業務的營業收入為 1.08 億美元，低於去年的業績，因為黑色金屬廢料價格的下降足以抵消銷量的增加。我們是北美最大的有色金屬和黑色金屬回收商，回收鋁、銅和其他金屬。

The team continues to lever our circular manufacturing operating model providing high-quality, low-cost scrap to our steel mills, which improves furnace efficiency and reduces company-wide working capital. Our steel fabrication operations achieved operating income of $250 million in the fourth quarter, lower than sequential third quarter results yet historically strong due to lower pricing and seasonally lower shipments.

團隊繼續利用我們的循環製造營運模式，為我們的鋼廠提供高品質、低成本的廢鋼，從而提高熔爐效率並減少全公司的營運資金。我們的鋼鐵製造業務在第四季度實現了 2.5 億美元的營業收入，低於第三季度的連續業績，但由於定價較低和季節性出貨量下降，歷史上表現強勁。

Our steel fabrication platform had another great year in 2023 with operating income of $1.6 billion. Congratulations to the team. Our steel joist deck remained solid with good order activity. Our backlog extends through the first half of 2024, and forward pricing remains strong. Infrastructure, inflation reduction at the DOE decarbonization support and manufacturing onshoring are expected to support domestic fixed asset investment and related flat and long product steel consumption and related joist and deck consumption as well.

我們的鋼鐵製造平台在 2023 年又迎來了輝煌的一年，營業收入達到 16 億美元。祝賀團隊。我們的鋼托樑甲板保持堅固，訂單活動良好。我們的積壓訂單一直持續到 2024 年上半年，遠期定價仍然強勁。基礎設施、美國能源部脫碳支持的通膨降低以及製造業本土化預計將支持國內固定資產投資以及相關的板材和長材鋼材消費以及相關托樑和甲板消費。

During the fourth quarter of 2023, we generated strong cash flow from operations of $865 million. For the full year, we achieved our second best annual cash flow of $3.5 billion. Our cash generation is consistently strong based on our differentiated circular business model and highly variable low-cost structure. At the end of the year, we had liquidity of $3.5 billion. During 2023, we invested $1.7 billion in capital investments, of which almost 60% related to the construction of our aluminum flat rolled investments.

2023 年第四季度，我們的營運產生了 8.65 億美元的強勁現金流。全年，我們實現了 35 億美元的第二高年度現金流。基於我們差異化的循環業務模式和高度可變的低成本結構，我們的現金產生能力始終強勁。截至年底，我們的流動資金為 35 億美元。 2023 年，我們投資了 17 億美元的資本投資，其中近 60% 與鋁壓延投資的建設有關。

For 2024, we believe capital investments will be in the range of $2 billion, of which approximately $1.4 billion relates to aluminum investments. During the fourth quarter, we maintained our cash dividend at $0.425 per common share after increasing at 25% in the first quarter of 2023. During the full year of 2023, we paid cash dividends of $271 million and repurchased $1.5 billion or 8% of our outstanding shares, representing a 62% net income shareholder distribution rate.

到 2024 年，我們認為資本投資將在 20 億美元左右，其中約 14 億美元涉及鋁投資。在2023 年第一季增加25% 後，第四季我們將現金股息維持在每股普通股 0.425 美元。2023 年全年，我們支付了2.71 億美元現金股息，並回購了15 億美元，即我們的8%。流通股，佔淨利股東分配率的62%。

The Board also authorized an additional $1.5 billion share repurchase program in November and $1.4 billion remained available at the end of the year. Since 2017, we've increased our cash dividend per share by 174%, and we've repurchased $5.5 billion of our common stock or 37% of our outstanding shares. These actions reflect the strength of our capital foundation, and consistently strong cash flow generation capability and the continued optimism and confidence in our future. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high-return growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that's complemented with a variable share repurchase program while we remain dedicated to preserving our investment-grade credit designation. Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last 5 years from an annual average of $540 million to $2.8 billion.

董事會還在 11 月批准了額外 15 億美元的股票回購計劃，年底仍有 14 億美元可用。自 2017 年以來，我們將每股現金股利增加了 174%，並回購了 55 億美元的普通股，即 37% 的已發行股票。這些舉措體現了我們雄厚的資本基礎、持續強勁的現金流產生能力以及對未來持續的樂觀和信心。我們的資本配置策略優先考慮高回報成長，股東分配包括基本的正股利狀況，並輔以可變股票回購計劃，同時我們仍致力於維持我們的投資等級信用稱號。過去 5 年來，我們的自由現金流狀況發生了根本性變化，從年均 5.4 億美元增加到 28 億美元。

We are squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable optimized long-term value creation. Our 3-year after-tax return on invested capital of 32% is a testament to our profitable growth. Sustainability is also a significant part of our long-term value creation strategy, and we're dedicated to our people, our communities and our environment. We're committed to operating our business with the highest integrity.

我們已做好充分準備，持續可持續優化的長期價值創造。我們 32% 的 3 年稅後投資報酬率證明了我們的獲利成長。永續發展也是我們長期價值創造策略的重要組成部分，我們致力於為我們的員工、社區和環境服務。我們致力於以最高的誠信經營我們的業務。

We have an actionable path forward to carbon neutrality as more manageable, and we believe considerably less expensive that then lay ahead for many of our industry peers. Our sustainability and carbon reduction strategy is an ongoing journey, and we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference. Thank you for your time this morning. Barry?

我們有一條更易於管理的實現碳中和的可行道路，而且我們相信，對於我們的許多行業同行來說，成本要低得多。我們的永續發展和減碳策略是一個持續的旅程，我們不斷前進，旨在做出積極的改變。感謝您今天早上抽出時間。巴里？

Thanks, Theresa. Our steel fabrication operations performed exceptionally well throughout 2023, achieving historically strong earnings. At the end of the year, our steel joist and deck order backlog was solid, extending through the first half of 2024. We continue to have high expectations for the business.

謝謝，特蕾莎。我們的鋼鐵製造業務在 2023 年表現異常出色，實現了歷史上強勁的盈利。截至年底，我們的鋼製托樑和甲板訂單積壓情況穩定，一直持續到 2024 年上半年。我們繼續對業務抱有很高的期望。

Continued onshoring and manufacturing, coupled with infrastructure spending and fixed asset investment related to the IRA programs would continue to provide momentum for additional construction spending. Equally important, our customers tell us demand remains solid and share our optimism. Fair pricing has stabilized at historically high levels and order entry has improved.

持續的外包和製造業，加上與 IRA 計劃相關的基礎設施支出和固定資產投資，將繼續為額外的建築支出提供動力。同樣重要的是，我們的客戶告訴我們需求依然強勁，並且與我們一樣樂觀。公平定價已穩定在歷史高位，訂單輸入有所改善。

Fabrication platform provides meaningful volume support for our steel mills, critical and softer demand environments, allowing for higher through-cycle steel utilization compared to our peers. It also helps mitigate the financial risk of lower steel prices. Our metals recycling operations also performed well this year, considering the challenge of declining scrap prices throughout much of 2023.

製造平台為我們的鋼廠、關鍵和較疲軟的需求環境提供了有意義的批量支持，與同行相比，允許更高的全週期鋼材利用率。它還有助於減輕鋼材價格下跌帶來的財務風險。考慮到 2023 年大部分時間廢鋼價格下降的挑戰，我們的金屬回收業務今年也表現良好。

The North American geographic footprint of our metals recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel mills and for our scrap generating customers. In particular, our Mexican locations competitively advantaged our Columbus and citing raw material positions. They will strategically support aluminum scrap procurement for our future flat-rolled aluminum investments.

我們的金屬回收平台的北美地理足跡為我們的鋼廠和廢鋼生產客戶提供了戰略競爭優勢。特別是，我們的墨西哥工廠在哥倫布和原材料地位方面具有競爭優勢。他們將為我們未來的壓延鋁投資策略性地支持廢鋁採購。

I bet our recycling team is also partnering even more closely with both our steel and aluminum teams to expand our scrap separation capabilities through process and technology solutions. This will help mitigate potential prime ferrous scrap supply issues in the future. It will also provide us with a significant advantage to materially increase the recycled content for our aluminum flat rolled products and increase the earnings opportunities.

我敢打賭，我們的回收團隊也將與我們的鋼鐵和鋁團隊更緊密地合作，透過製程和技術解決方案擴大我們的廢料分離能力。這將有助於緩解未來潛在的優質黑色金屬廢料供應問題。它還將為我們提供顯著的優勢，大幅增加鋁壓延產品的回收含量並增加獲利機會。

The steel team had another strong year, achieving record volume of 12.8 million tons. During 2023, the domestic steel industry operated at an estimated production utilization rate of 76%, while our steel mills operated at a rate of 93%, excluding the Sinton plant. We consistently operate at higher utilization due to our value-added steel product diversification, our differentiated customer supply chain and the support of our internal manufacturing businesses.

鋼鐵團隊又迎來了強勁的一年，產量達到創紀錄的1,280萬噸。 2023年，國內鋼鐵業的生產利用率預計為76%，而我們的鋼鐵廠（不包括辛頓工廠）的開工率為93%。由於我們的增值鋼鐵產品多元化、差異化的客戶供應鏈以及內部製造業務的支持，我們始終保持較高的利用率。

This higher through-cycle utilization of all our steel mills is a key competitive advantage, supporting our strong and growing cash generation capability and best-in-class financial metrics. Regarding the steel markets, steel pricing improved in the fourth quarter of 2023 and into January. Customer order entry rate has been strong and lead times have been extended while their inventory levels remain at historically low amounts.

我們所有鋼廠的更高的全週期利用率是一個關鍵的競爭優勢，支持我們強大且不斷增長的現金生成能力和一流的財務指標。鋼材市場方面，2023 年第四季至 1 月鋼材價格有所改善。客戶訂單輸入率強勁，交貨時間延長，而庫存水準仍維持在歷史低點。

In fact, our flat-rolled steel operations have experienced one of the strongest order entry environments in January, especially for our value-added products. Additionally, steel imports have generally remained at a manageable level with expectations of this to continue. As I said the team has achieved significant improvements in operating efficiency and consistency. They average about 65% of capability in November, December and have been running even stronger rates here in January.

事實上，我們的扁鋼業務在一月份經歷了最強勁的訂單輸入環境之一，特別是對於我們的增值產品而言。此外，鋼材進口總體保持在可控水平，預計這種情況將持續下去。正如我所說，團隊在營運效率和一致性方面取得了顯著提高。他們在 11 月和 12 月的平均產能利用率約為 65%，而 1 月的產能利用率甚至更高。

We are planning for Sinton to see additional improvements in production after the team makes changes through certain transfers at the end of this first quarter of 2024. While we allow access to 100% of our mill capacity versus the current 80% capacity. Additionally, the 2 new value-added coating lines will begin operating in the first quarter, supporting increased volume and margins.

我們計劃在 2024 年第一季末團隊透過某些轉移進行改變後，Sinton 的生產將進一步改善。雖然我們允許使用 100% 的工廠產能，而不是目前的 80% 產能。此外，兩條新的增值塗裝線將於第一季開始運營，以支持銷售和利潤的增加。

Regarding steel, the market environment, automotive production estimates for 2024 are an estimated 16 million units, while automotive dealer inventories remain below historical norms. Nonresidential construction remains solid as evidenced by the strength of shipments and backlogs at our Structural and Rail division and customer inventory levels are low.

就鋼鐵市場環境而言，2024年汽車產量預計為1,600萬輛，而汽車經銷商庫存仍低於歷史正常水準。非住宅建築業務依然穩健，我們的結構和鐵路部門的發貨量和積壓訂單強勁以及客戶庫存水平較低就證明了這一點。

Additionally, onshoring and infrastructure spending should provide meaningful support to fixed asset investment and related to construction-oriented projects in the coming years. As for the energy market, oil and gas activity is strong, driving improved orders for OCTG and solar, those areas all grow. Looking forward, we are optimistic regarding steel demand and pricing dynamics for 2024. With that, Mark?

此外，在岸和基礎設施支出應為未來幾年的固定資產投資和與建築相關的項目提供有意義的支援。至於能源市場，石油和天然氣活動強勁，推動油井管和太陽能訂單增加，這些領域都成長。展望未來，我們對 2024 年鋼鐵需求和定價動態持樂觀態度。馬克？

Thanks, Barry. Thanks, Theresa. And I think our consistently strong through-cycle operating and financial performance continues to support our cash generation and growth investment strategies. As Barry mentioned, the 4 value-add flat-rolled steel coating lines are starting this quarter and Sinton should see a step function improvement, hitting its stride in the second quarter of this year.

謝謝，巴里。謝謝，特蕾莎。我認為我們持續強勁的整個週期營運和財務表現將繼續支持我們的現金產生和成長投資策略。正如 Barry 所提到的，4 條增值扁鋼塗裝線將於本季啟動，Sinton 的功能應該會逐步改善，並在今年第二季實現跨越式發展。

Our aluminum growth strategy is especially compelling, responses from existing and new customers across all markets remain incredible, only strengthening as we move forward. Many customers have already indicated they would like to build facilities on our rolling mill site in Columbus, Mississippi. And this co-location strategy provides a sustainably competitive model for all of us, conserving time, money and reducing emissions across the supply chain and has already proven itself clearly in Sinton.

我們的鋁成長策略尤其引人注目，所有市場的現有和新客戶的反應仍然令人難以置信，並且隨著我們的前進而不斷加強。許多客戶已經表示他們希望在我們位於密西西比州哥倫布市的軋機廠址上建造設施。這種託管策略為我們所有人提供了一種可持續的競爭模式，節省了時間、金錢並減少了整個供應鏈的排放，並且已經在辛頓清楚地證明了自己。

The project itself was 650,000 metric ton aluminum flat roll facility located in Columbus, Mississippi. It's going to be a state-of-the-art plant, obviously, serving the sustainable beverage and packaging both body and then TAM, automotive and industrial sectors. Roughly 300,000 metric tons of canned stock which is about 45% of the output roughly 200,000 tons of auto and 150,000 metric tons of industrial and construction products.

該項目本身是位於密西西比州哥倫布市的 65 萬噸鋁扁卷工廠。顯然，這將是一家最先進的工廠，為永續飲料和包裝行業提供服務，然後為 TAM、汽車和工業行業提供服務。罐裝庫存約 30 萬噸，約佔約 20 萬噸汽車和 15 萬噸工業和建築產品產量的 45%。

The on-site milled cast slab capability of 600,000 metric tons will be supported by 2 satellite recycled aluminum slab casting centers located in UBC scrap rich regions, 1 in West and 1 in Central Mexico. The expanded product scope is including additional scrap processing and treatment to maximize aluminum recycled content. Lot of plans are still on schedule rolling mill should be mid-'25, the Mexico slab center at the end of '24, and then Arizona slab center around mid-'25.

60 萬噸的現場銑削鑄板產能將由位於 UBC 廢料豐富地區的 2 個衛星再生鋁板坯鑄造中心提供支持，其中 1 個位於墨​​西哥西部，1 個位於墨​​西哥中部。擴大的產品範圍包括額外的廢料加工和處理，以最大限度地提高鋁的回收含量。許多計劃仍在按計劃進行，軋鋼廠應該在 25 年中期，墨西哥板坯中心在 24 年底，然後亞利桑那板坯中心在 25 年中期左右。

The total project cost, as you saw in the release, including the recycled slab centers has risen to $2.7 billion. The installation cost for the rolling mill has expanded due to inflationary installation costs that we are all facing. So with virtually all equipment and construction contracts complete, we are confident in this final budget. As we've said before, 100% to be funded with cash.

正如您在新聞稿中看到的，包括回收板中心在內的項目總成本已升至 27 億美元。由於我們都面臨通貨膨脹的安裝成本，軋機的安裝成本已經增加。因此，幾乎所有設備和施工合約都已完成，我們對最終預算充滿信心。正如我們之前所說，100％由現金資助。

And the expectation is to have a through cycle annual EBITDA of around $650 million to $700 million from the aluminum facility with an additional $40 million to $50 million from OmniSource. I think we're definitely going to see superior financial metrics relative to our competition. As we see it, the market environment is similar to the domestic steel industry when we started SDI 30 years ago, older assets, little reinvestment, heavy legacy costs with inefficient high-cost operations. We're confident we can emulate the performance-driven high-efficiency, low-cost model that drove our success in steel to drive superior financial metrics.

預計鋁工廠的整個週期年度 EBITDA 約為 6.5 億至 7 億美元，另外 OmniSource 的利潤為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。我認為我們肯定會看到相對於我們的競爭對手更出色的財務指標。我們認為，市場環境與30年前我們創辦SDI時的國內鋼鐵業類似，資產老舊，再投資少，遺留成本高，營運效率低。我們有信心能夠效法績效驅動的高效率、低成本模式，推動我們在鋼鐵領域取得成功，進而推動卓越的財務指標。

Our organizational mill structure to advanced layout and technology and our performance-driven sort of -- core and culture will drive a census of around about 750 people versus typically 2,000 or more in a similar competitor out there.

我們的組織工廠結構採用先進的佈局和技術，以及我們以績效為導向的核心和文化，將推動約 750 人的人口普查，而類似競爭對手通常為 2,000 人或更多。

We will have higher yield through the system. We will leverage OmniSource's market position and their separation technologies to ensure higher recycled content. We obviously won't have the legacy burden that others have. We will have production cost efficiencies and along with the customer co-location. In the end, we also have a preferred sustainability profile. If you put it all together, we're confident that our earnings profile is going to be far superior to the industry today. We've developed the best financial metrics in the steel industry. And as I said, we have confidence we can do the same in aluminum. We're poised for continued growth. We have an additional 3 million tons, as I said earlier, have shipping capability that will be leveraged through our new processing lines, new products and new supply chains. And we are on passion by our future growth plans as they will continue to drive the high return growth momentum we have consistently demonstrated over the years.

透過該系統我們將獲得更高的產量。我們將利用 OmniSource 的市場地位及其分離技術來確保更高的回收含量。我們顯然不會像其他人一樣承受遺留負擔。我們將實現生產成本效率以及與客戶的協同定位。最後，我們還有一個首選的永續發展概況。如果把所有這些放在一起，我們相信我們的獲利狀況將遠遠優於當今的產業。我們制定了鋼鐵業最佳的財務指標。正如我所說，我們有信心在鋁方面也能做到同樣的事情。我們已做好持續成長的準備。正如我之前所說，我們還有另外 300 萬噸的運輸能力，將透過我們的新加工線、新產品和新供應鏈加以利用。我們對未來的成長計劃充滿熱情，因為它們將繼續推動我們多年來一貫表現出的高回報成長動能。

We have the highest average 5-year after-tax return on invested capital within the S&P 500 materials companies. In the last 3 years, we had an average after-tax ROIC of 32%. I'm going to say that just doesn't happen. Our disciplined, intentional organic and acquisition strategy focused on differentiated value-added supply chain solutions is providing sustainable cash generation and strong returns.

在標準普爾 500 強材料公司中，我們的平均 5 年稅後投資報酬率最高。過去 3 年，我們的平均稅後 ROIC 為 32%。我想說這不會發生。我們嚴格、有意識的有機收購策略專注於差異化的加值供應鏈解決方案，可提供可持續的現金產生和豐厚的回報。

I continue to be optimistic moving forward. I believe the market dynamics are in place to support increased demand across our operating platforms in 2024 and the years ahead. North America will benefit from continued onshoring and manufacturing businesses. And the U.S. will benefit from the allocation of public monies from the infrastructure program, Inflation Reduction Act and other public programs.

我繼續樂觀地前進。我相信市場動態已經到位，可以支持 2024 年及未來幾年我們營運平台不斷增長的需求。北美將受益於持續的本土和製造業務。美國將從基礎設施計劃、通貨膨脹削減法案和其他公共計劃的公共資金分配中受益。

Fuel Dynamics is levered to benefit from those programs through increased steel joist and deck demand, flat and long product steel demand and the associated higher demand for recycled scrap and aluminum. In closing, there is no doubt our teams are our foundation. And I thank each of them for their passion and dedication.

透過增加鋼托樑和甲板需求、扁平材和長材鋼材需求以及相關的回收廢料和鋁的更高需求，Fuel Dynamics 將從這些計劃中受益。最後，毫無疑問我們的團隊是我們的基礎。我感謝他們每個人的熱情和奉獻。

We're committed to them. And I remind those listening today that safety for yourselves, your families and each other is the highest priority. Our culture and business model continue to positively differentiate our performance. leading to best-in-class financial metrics. We are no longer a pure steel company, but an integrated metals business providing enhanced supply chain solutions to the industry. And, in turn, mitigating volatility in cash flow generation through all market cycles.

我們致力於他們。我提醒今天聽眾，你們自己、家人和彼此的安全是最重要的。我們的文化和商業模式繼續使我們的業績脫穎而出。從而實現一流的財務指標。我們不再是一家純粹的鋼鐵公司，而是一家為產業提供增強型供應鏈解決方案的綜合金屬企業。反過來，可以減輕所有市場週期中現金流產生的波動性。

We're competitively positioned and continue to focus on providing superior value for our company, customers, team members and shareholders alike. We look forward to creating new opportunities for everyone today and the years ahead. So with that said, Holly, I would love for you to open it up for questions.

我們處於競爭地位，並將繼續專注於為我們的公司、客戶、團隊成員和股東等提供卓越的價值。我們期待為今天和未來的每個人創造新的機會。話雖如此，Holly，我希望您能開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question for today is coming from Martin Englert with Seaport Research.

我們今天的第一個問題來自海港研究中心的馬丁恩格勒特。

Quick question on steel conversion costs were estimated around $5.30 per ton in the fourth quarter and kind of average around there for the year. Looking ahead at 1Q, taking that point of reference into account, should we expect some decline there based on the ramping of Sinton further and some better fixed cost leverage.

關於鋼鐵轉換成本的快速問題估計第四季度約為每噸 5.30 美元，是全年的平均水平。展望第一季度，考慮到這一參考點，我們是否應該預期，由於 Sinton 的進一步擴張和一些更好的固定成本槓桿，該季度將出現一些下滑。

The way that the information that you guys can use to back into our conversion costs, I know it's a little difficult, but you hit the primary driver with Sinton and ramping up as significantly as we're expecting them to do in the first quarter and as they are doing right now in January already, we would expect to see that overall as you calculate it conversion costs come down absent any other factors, correct?

你們可以使用這些資訊來回饋我們的轉換成本，我知道這有點困難，但你們透過 Sinton 達到了主要驅動力，並像我們預期的那樣在第一季度大幅增長，正如他們一月份所做的那樣，我們預計在沒有其他因素的情況下，整體轉換成本會下降，對嗎？

Okay. And any goalpost as far as when we think about what that could potentially decline on a sequential basis? And I understand there might be other offsets there with substrate that's kind of flowing through there as well. But...

好的。當我們考慮什麼可能會持續下降時，有什麼目標嗎？我知道那裡可能還有其他偏移，基材也流經那裡。但...

It's really hard for us to give you guidance, as you know, Martin, as it relates to the conversion costs as you're calculating it. As conversion costs really stand within the steel operations themselves, the 2 conversion costs are very stable. We don't expect to see a lot of movement except for Sinton again because of the additional volumes. The substrate does have an impact, as you mentioned, but we don't expect to see that mix of processing versus production be dramatically different in the first quarter.

如您所知，馬丁，我們確實很難為您提供指導，因為這與您計算時的轉換成本有關。由於轉換成本確實存在於鋼鐵業務本身中，因此這兩個轉換成本非常穩定。由於交易量增加，我們預計除了 Sinton 之外不會再出現大量變動。正如您所提到的，基材確實會產生影響，但我們預計第一季加工與生產的組合不會有顯著差異。

Okay. If I could 1 follow up on steel fabrication in the release, you noted improved activity as well as price backlog extending through first half of '24. On average, is the backlog price higher or lower than the fourth quarter ASP of $3,500 per ton?

好的。如果我能在新聞稿中跟進鋼鐵製造，您會注意到活動有所改善，並且價格積壓一直延續到 24 年上半年。平均而言，積壓價格是高於還是低於第四季每噸 3,500 美元的平均售價？

The backlog prices held in very steadily. There's not a dramatic difference. And again, we don't give specific sense to the backlog pricing for fabrication or for other operations. But the resiliency and the price, both what we're seeing now and in that backlog is very steady.

積壓價格保持非常穩定。沒有顯著差異。再說一遍，我們沒有對製造或其他操作的積壓定價給予具體意義。但彈性和價格，無論是我們現在看到的還是積壓的訂單都非常穩定。

I would just add, in the fourth quarter, and our belief is that the fabrication is kind of troughed in large part. But in the fourth quarter, we had the highest order input rate of the prior 6 quarters. So volumes are -- will turn. Obviously, you've got a little seasonality in Q1, but the expectation is things will go upward thereafter.

我想補充一點，在第四季度，我們相信製作在很大程度上已經陷入低谷。但在第四季度，我們的訂單輸入率是前六個季度最高的。所以成交量會有所變動。顯然，第一季有一些季節性，但預計此後情況將會上升。

Your comment on you believe that it's trough, does that pertain to volumes or price or volumes and price?

您對您的評論認為這是低谷，這與數量或價格或數量和價格有關嗎？

I would say that for sure, volume and pricing appears to have stabilized.

我想說的是，銷量和價格似乎已經穩定下來。

Your next question is coming from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas.

您的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Tristan Gresser。

Yes. The first one kind of a follow-up on the fabrication guidance, maybe on the volumes. If we look at the shipments you had in Q4, it's probably the lowest fab shipments we've seen in 5 years and you mentioned you've seen that trough, but could you explain a little bit what has been holding you back there of late.

是的。第一種是對製造指南的後續，可能是對卷的後續。如果我們看一下你們在第四季的出貨量，這可能是我們5 年來所見過的最低晶圓廠出貨量，你們提到你們已經看到了這個低谷，但你們能解釋一下是什麼讓你們最近陷入困境嗎？ 。

And if we look at 2024, what kind of growth expectation do you foresee for the business? I know you provided some guidance last year on a half-on-half basis. So anything there would be helpful. That would be my first question.

如果我們展望 2024 年，您對業務的成長預期是怎樣的？我知道您去年提供了一些半對半的指導。所以任何事情都會有幫助。這是我的第一個問題。

I guess I would just leave it as already stated, the order input rate increased in Q4. That will flow through this year. You always have as you -- I know you appreciate sort of seasonality in this first quarter with the winter months and construction being a little inhibited by the weather. But I think we will certainly see a turn into the second quarter and through the rest of the year.

我想我會像已經說過的那樣保留它，訂單輸入率在第四季度有所增加。這將貫穿今年。你總是這樣——我知道你喜歡第一季的季節性，冬季和施工都會受到天氣的影響。但我認為我們肯定會在第二季和今年剩餘時間內看到轉變。

All right. That's fair. And my second question is more on the CapEx hikes or the project budget hikes. I think you mentioned the aluminum, but I think the biocarbon project also the CapEx has been high. So what drove that?

好的。這還算公平。我的第二個問題更多的是關於資本支出上漲或專案預算上漲。我想你提到了鋁，但我認為生物碳專案的資本支出也很高。那麼是什麼推動了這一點呢？

And when we look at this, let's say, $300 million budget hike versus prior, how should it be spread out between 2024 and 2025. I know you provided some insight on the budget for 2024, around $2 billion but there is a significant drop in consensus expectation into 2025. So it'd be helpful to get a sense of how much is flowing into 2025 for those projects?

當我們考慮這個問題時，比方說，與之前相比，預算增加了3 億美元，它應該如何在2024 年至2025 年之間分配。我知道您對2024 年的預算提供了一些見解，大約為20 億美元，但有顯著下降到 2025 年的共識預期。因此，了解這些項目到 2025 年的流入量會有所幫助嗎？

And also, do you -- when you look at this elevated CapEx budget for next year and your expectation for your several businesses, do you expect to be free cash flow positive for 2024?

而且，當您考慮明年增加的資本支出預算以及您對幾項業務的期望時，您是否預計 2024 年自由現金流為正？

Thanks, Tristan. So the biocarbon project hasn't increased in cost. It's stayed the same. It's $260 million. We did expect at one point in time to possibly get some tax credits that became unavailable once the definitions kind of became more precise from the administration. But otherwise, the capital cost of $260 million remains what we thought it would be.

謝謝，特里斯坦。所以生物碳專案的成本並沒有增加。它保持不變。這是2.6億美元。我們確實預計在某個時間點可能會獲得一些稅收抵免，但一旦政府的定義變得更加精確，這些稅收抵免就變得不可用。但除此之外，2.6 億美元的資本成本仍然是我們預期的水平。

And that project is still online to be completed and to start before the end of 2024 which, as a reminder, is incredibly additive to our decarbonization path, and it's going to really help our customer base as you look at the carbon content across our steel operations with the benefit of using the biocarbon.

該項目仍處於在線狀態，將於2024 年底之前完成並啟動，提醒一下，這對我們的脫碳道路來說是令人難以置信的補充，當您查看我們鋼鐵中的碳含量時，它將真正幫助我們的客戶群受益於使用生物碳的營運。

So incredibly excited and the team is doing a fantastic job in Mississippi getting that up and running. So that will be spent primarily in 2024. And that $2 billion is a number that I would have given you last quarter as well. So that stayed the same for total CapEx in 2024. As it relates to the aluminum project, most of the incremental and it rounded to $200 million, but it was less than that in actuality. But most of that will be spent in 2024.

非常興奮，團隊在密西西比州的啟動和運作方面做得非常出色。因此，這將主要在 2024 年支出。這 20 億美元也是我上個季度會給你們的數字。因此，2024 年的總資本支出保持不變。由於與鋁項目相關，大部分是增量，四捨五入為 2 億美元，但比實際少。但大部分將在 2024 年花掉。

So I gave you the spend for aluminum of about $1.4 billion. this year, and it would be our expectation. And then there would be a trailing, call it, $150 million to $200 million remaining to be spent in 2025 related to the aluminum projects. And so really nothing significant has changed on the capital front, except for that incremental addition in the aluminum project itself -- I'm sorry, I forgot, I had to look at my notes.

所以我給你們提供了大約 14 億美元的鋁支出。今年，這將是我們的期望。到 2025 年，與鋁項目相關的資金將剩餘 1.5 億至 2 億美元。因此，除了鋁項目本身的增量增加之外，資本方面確實沒有任何重大變化——對不起，我忘了，我必須看看我的筆記。

You asked a lot of questions, Tristan. The last one was related to consensus for 2025. And I would just and free cash flow. I would just point out for everyone on the call. So for the last 2 years, unfortunately, Sinton has been negative from an EBITDA perspective. And Mark said on the call this morning that we will be EBITDA positive in the first quarter and thereafter, that's a significant swing in just earnings itself just as it relates to the ramp-up of Sinton.

你問了很多問題，特里斯坦。最後一個與 2025 年的共識有關。我希望現金流自由。我只想向通話中的每個人指出。因此，不幸的是，在過去的兩年裡，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，Sinton 一直是負。馬克在今天早上的電話會議上表示，我們將在第一季實現 EBITDA 為正值，此後，這就是盈利本身的重大波動，就像它與 Sinton 的增長有關一樣。

In addition to that, you have the 4 value-add flat roll lines that are coming online in 2024, which are significant additional opportunity for contribution to earnings on the value-added side as well as that's where the demand is today is in the painted products and the Galvalume products. And then if you couple that with the fact that we've been increasing and will continue to increase volumes in our metals recycling segment, both related to the collection of nonferrous scrap, specifically aluminum and to help service our steel mills on the ferrous side of the equation.

除此之外，還有 4 條將於 2024 年上線的增值平軋生產線，這是在增值方面為收益做出貢獻的重要額外機會，這也是目前的需求所在產品和鍍鋁鋅產品。然後，如果您將這一點與我們一直在並將繼續增加金屬回收領域的數量這一事實結合起來，這既與有色廢料（特別是鋁）的收集有關，也與幫助為我們的黑色鋼鐵廠提供服務有關。方程式。

And then finally, in 2025, we will be starting our aluminum mill, midyear is the current forecast. So that's contributing to earnings, as Mark mentioned, not we believe through cycle earnings of $650 million to $700 million. So I think everybody maybe needs to take a step back and kind of look at the opportunities that we have from an earnings perspective. And yes, we do expect to generate cash in 2024, and we expect to continue -- we plan to continue with our share repurchase program.

最後，我們將在 2025 年啟動我們的鋁廠，目前的預測是年中。因此，正如馬克所提到的那樣，這對盈利有所貢獻，而不是我們認為的 6.5 億至 7 億美元的周期盈利。所以我認為每個人可能都需要退後一步，從獲利的角度來看待我們所擁有的機會。是的，我們確實預計在 2024 年產生現金，而且我們預計會繼續進行——我們計劃繼續實施我們的股票回購計劃。

Just one added point. Although we are disappointed with the CapEx creeping at Sinton. We are very, very confident -- I mean, sorry, sorry, in Columbus, aluminum. We're confident that that's the final creep, but it has no impact to schedule to be honest, it is going at a breathtaking place, absolutely phenomenal job by the team down there. And there's no doubt we'll be up and running midyear of '25.

只是補充一點。儘管我們對 Sinton 的資本支出緩慢增長感到失望。我們非常非常有信心——我的意思是，抱歉，抱歉，對於哥倫布的鋁業。我們相信這就是最後的進展，但說實話，這對日程安排沒有影響，它正在一個令人驚嘆的地方進行，那裡的團隊絕對是出色的工作。毫無疑問，我們將在 25 年年中啟動並運行。

Your next question for today is coming from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

My question is on the aluminum project. I don't know if you could maybe give a little bit of color as to what extent have you been able to contract some of the volumes that will come online in mid-2025? And what type of pricing mechanism or structure even at just high level and on a qualitative basis, have you been able to use to implement in those contracts, if you have done so?

我的問題是關於鋁項目的。我不知道您是否可以透露一下您在多大程度上能夠簽訂 2025 年中期上線的一些卷？如果您已經這樣做了，您是否能夠在這些合約中使用哪種類型的定價機製或結構（即使在高水準和定性的基礎上）？

Thank you, Carlos. The commercial team, in all honesty, has only been put together over the last, I would say, 2 months. They're very, very active with our customer base and in all honestly, we all are at every level. And the reception is incredibly high. And I would suggest that we have total confidence that we're going to be able to support the ramp-up in '25 into '26.

謝謝你，卡洛斯。老實說，商業團隊是在過去兩個月才組成的。他們對我們的客戶群非常非常活躍，老實說，我們都處於各個層級。而且反應非常高。我建議我們完全有信心能夠支持 25 年至 26 年的成長。

All right. And if I may ask on the -- what is the expected ramp-up and EBITDA contribution for the 4 quarter lines? I mean, I think 2 of them will start in the first quarter.

好的。如果我可以問一下——第四個季度的預期成長和 EBITDA 貢獻是多少？我的意思是，我認為其中兩個將在第一季開始。

As far as the ramp-up, I'll let Barry address how quickly they ramp up. I would tell you from a financial perspective, the coating lines, they are in totality, all 4, around $600 million and they tend to have a 2.5- to 3-year payback. So it's very nice returns.

至於成長速度，我會讓巴里談談他們的成長速度有多快。我會從財務角度告訴你，塗層生產線總共有 4 條，大約 6 億美元，而且往往有 2.5 到 3 年的投資回收期。所以這是非常好的回報。

Yes, this is Barry. I'd just like to add the teams, the personnel are in place. They've been training, building the lines. That's our culture to be part of the construction. So the teams are already very familiar with the equipment. Two of the lines have actually run first coils, one at Heartland, the paint line and a coating line down in Sinton. So that's great news. That's always exhilarating for the teams to get that point.

是的，這是巴里。我只是想補充一下團隊，人員已經就位。他們一直在訓練、搭建線路。這就是我們參與建設的文化。所以各隊對裝備都已經非常熟悉了。其中兩條生產線實際上已經運行了第一批捲材，一條位於 Heartland，一條位於 Sinton 的油漆生產線。這是個好消息。對於球隊來說，獲得這一分總是令人興奮的。

The next 2 lines are in hot commissioning now, and we anticipate those running first coils in the March time frame. So the ramp-up, key product for them, we're pretty aggressive in what we do typically, and we anticipate these will be contributing to our customers here in the near future. I envision prime sales in Q1 from the 2 lines that have run first coils, and we see all 4 of the lines making and shipping salable goods into the marketplace in Q2. So we anticipate our experience in our culture will allow these startups to be very seamless and we are very responsible to our customers to make sure the product leaving is nothing less than the best they expect from us.

接下來的兩條生產線目前正在進行熱調試，我們預計第一批生產線將在三月運行。因此，對於他們來說，關鍵產品的提升，我們在我們通常所做的事情上非常積極，我們預計這些將在不久的將來為我們的客戶做出貢獻。我預計第一季第一批生產線的 2 條生產線的銷售量將達到頂峰，我們看到所有 4 條生產線都會在第二季生產並向市場運送可銷售的商品。因此，我們預計我們在我們文化中的經驗將使這些新創公司變得非常無縫，並且我們對客戶非常負責，以確保留下的產品不亞於他們對我們的期望。

So when you think about the 4 lines or particularly the 2 lines in Sinton, Obviously, it's going to expand our value-add sort of product portfolio down there and enhance the margin directly there. But as importantly, it will allow us to fully utilize the downstream lines. So yes, the team has done a phenomenal job on the hot side.

因此，當您考慮 Sinton 的 4 條生產線，尤其是 2 條生產線時，顯然，它將擴大我們在那裡的增值產品組合，並直接提高那裡的利潤。但同樣重要的是，它將使我們能夠充分利用下游線路。所以，是的，該團隊在熱方面做得非常出色。

You're going to see great gains there through increased utilization. As Barry said, we're knocking on 75% utilization today in January and 80% is right around the corner. But downstream, when you take that product, you pickle it, you put it through the time of mill and other lines. Having the additional what is 300,000, 400,000 tons of downstream.

透過提高利用率，您將看到巨大的收益。正如 Barry 所說，我們預計 1 月的使用率將達到 75%，而 80% 指日可待。但在下游，當你拿到該產品時，你會對其進行醃製，然後將其放入工廠和其他生產線中。下游新增產能有30萬噸、40萬噸。

That's going to allow probably loading of those downstream lines and obviously a dilution of the cost structure. So it's a very, very important and effective impact to some here in the next 3 or 4 or 5 months.

這將可能允許這些下游生產線的負載，並且顯然會稀釋成本結構。因此，在接下來的 3、4 或 5 個月內，這對這裡的一些人來說是非常非常重要且有效的影響。

Your next question for today is coming from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

今天你們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。

I wanted to ask about -- I was outside of line to follow up and just -- I know you mentioned that you thought volumes had hit bottom and prices were stabilizing. Do we have kind of the effect of the higher price from the -- into the fourth quarter hitting in the first quarter? Or is that more of a second quarter phenomenon? So that was my first question.

我想問的是——我超出了跟進範圍，只是——我知道你提到你認為成交量已經觸底，價格正在穩定。從第四季開始價格上漲對第一季產生了影響嗎？或者這更像是第二季的現象？這是我的第一個問題。

I didn't get that.

我沒明白。

I was asking about costs from throughput from the hot-rolled side.

我問的是熱軋側吞吐量的成本。

Okay. Yes. So David thought you were talking about fabrication, you're actually talking about flat roll. So the -- we're operating right now about contract business lagging, let's call it, 2 to 3 months. So the increased pricing that we saw in flat roll in the fourth quarter is going to be benefiting the first quarter from a contract perspective. And the 80% is -- it's really been pretty consistent all year for the flat roll operations. So we'll see that benefit Q1.

好的。是的。所以大衛以為你在談論製造，你實際上在談論平卷。因此，我們現在正在運營的合約業務滯後了 2 到 3 個月。因此，從合約角度來看，我們在第四季度看到的平卷價格上漲將使第一季受益。 80% 是－平捲業務全年都非常穩定。所以我們會看到第一季的收益。

Okay. That's actually really helpful, but I was asking about fabrication and the throughput of flat-rolled price increases and the impact on margins on downstream. So if you could actually answer that as well, that would be great.

好的。這實際上確實很有幫助，但我問的是製造和平軋價格上漲的吞吐量以及對下游利潤率的影響。所以如果你也能真正回答這個問題，那就太好了。

Sorry, I'll get this right eventually. From a cost perspective for the substrate for fabrication, they tend to have anywhere between call it, 8 to 10 weeks of inventory on the ground. That's the same thing that they would have had coming into the first quarter. So you're going to see some of that incremental price hike in the first quarter but you would have seen some of it in the fourth quarter as well.

抱歉，我最終會解決這個問題。從製造基板的成本角度來看，他們往往有 8 到 10 週的現場庫存。這與他們進入第一季時會遇到的情況是一樣的。因此，您將在第一季看到一些增量價格上漲，但在第四季也會看到一些增量。

Okay. And then if I could, just one last one. I know Barry talked about and Mark talked about customer inventories being low. So I just don't understand that because I know that at least SMU actually had some really high inventories for December. So is that just not aligned with what you're seeing? Or can you help me understand why the difference of narrative there?

好的。如果可以的話，就最後一件事。我知道巴里和馬克談到了客戶庫存低。所以我只是不明白這一點，因為我知道至少 SMU 12 月的庫存實際上很高。那麼這與您所看到的不符嗎？或者你能幫我理解為什麼敘述會有差異嗎？

Well, Timna, this is Barry. I think a lot of our relationships, especially with the galvanized and the painted are very directly with customers. So we see our supply chains still needing to fill orders at a really good rate. So the MSCI inventories still are traditionally pretty low. But more to the point our specific OEM relationships are still pulling tons from us.

嗯，蒂姆納，這是巴里。我認為我們的許多關係，特別是與鍍鋅和噴漆的關係，都與客戶非常直接。因此，我們看到我們的供應鏈仍然需要以非常好的速度完成訂單。因此，摩根士丹利資本國際 (MSCI) 的庫存傳統上仍然很低。但更重要的是，我們特定的 OEM 關係仍然對我們產生巨大的影響。

And when we have conversations, the lead times haven't changed at all with a vast majority of the business we do that is on these contract relationships. So I think what we're seeing out there and the nature of our inquiries make us feel like that there is a real demand out there still underneath everything we're doing.

當我們進行對話時，交貨時間根本沒有改變，因為我們所做的絕大多數業務都是基於這些合約關係。因此，我認為我們所看到的情況以及我們所詢問的性質讓我們覺得在我們所做的一切背後仍然存在著真正的需求。

And just to add to that. I think generally, we believe we are just very, very constructive for 2024 relative to steel demand. And everyone gets a little excited by maybe a little backing off of hot-band pricing here of late. But for us, flat roll continues to be very, very solid. And maybe the macro indicators may not be overly constructive right now. The order input rate in January for us has been incredibly strong.

只是為了補充這一點。我認為總的來說，我們認為 2024 年相對於鋼鐵需求而言，我們非常非常有建設性。最近，熱門樂團的定價可能有所回落，每個人都感到有點興奮。但對我們來說，平卷仍然非常非常堅固。也許宏觀指標目前可能並沒有太大的建設性。我們一月份的訂單輸入率非常強勁。

And we would, as Barry said, suggest that supply chain inventories, not just MSCI or SME, but just supply chain in general is relatively tight. And imports are not a material factor today and won't be. We're booked out for coated and prepayment, right? It's very, very strong for us. And I think the -- again, when you look at the -- just the hot-band pricing because coated, prepaint is all very, very, very strong still.

正如巴里所說，我們建議供應鏈庫存（不僅僅是 MSCI 或中小企業，而是整個供應鏈）相對緊張。進口現在不再是物質因素，將來也不會。我們已經預訂了塗層和預付款，對嗎？這對我們來說非常非常強大。我認為，再次，當你看到熱帶定價時，因為塗層、預塗漆仍然非常非常非常強勁。

It's just like recent cycles, and it's more emotion than anything else, but you get that steep climb. You have exuberance hence to overshoot the market a little bit, and it just sort of retrenches itself a little bit. And I think that's where we are today. And it's not a signal as it used to be. It's not a signal as the underlying -- the structural underlying demand because there's so little spot material transacted today. Just because you have a slight erosion in hot band price, it doesn't mean to say that that's reflective of where the demand is. So for us, demand is, as I said, very, very solid throughout our sheet mills.

就像最近的周期一樣，它比其他任何東西都更情緒化，但你會經歷陡峭的攀登。因此，你有足夠的熱情去超越市場一點點，而它只是稍微收縮一點。我認為這就是我們今天的處境。而且它不再像以前那樣是一個信號。這並不是一個潛在的訊號——結構性的潛在需求，因為今天交易的現貨材料太少了。僅僅因為熱帶價格略有下降，並不意味著這反映了需求情況。因此，正如我所說，對我們來說，整個板材廠的需求非常非常強勁。

And I also see that long products is in a very, very solid territory. Would like to congratulate the team. They had record earnings and record volumes in 2023. They've done an incredible job. They've changed the commercial approach somewhat. They've expanded their product portfolio, and that's going to support higher through-cycle volumes going forward for the long product platform as well. So I think for us, the markets are quite rosy.

我也看到長材產品處於非常非常穩固的領域。我想祝賀球隊。他們在 2023 年實現了創紀錄的盈利和創紀錄的銷售量。他們的工作非常出色。他們在某種程度上改變了商業方式。他們擴大了產品組合，這也將支援長產品平台未來更高的整個週期產量。所以我認為對我們來說，市場相當樂觀。

Your next question is coming from Curt Woodworth with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的科特·伍德沃斯。

So just wanted to follow up on the fab pricing dynamic. I think at the start or maybe at the end of the first quarter of '23, you talked about pricing in the back half of the year being down 10% to 15% and you came in down 22%. And then I think for now 2 quarters in a row, you have talked about price stabilization. And obviously, you mentioned the order entry getting better.

所以只是想跟進晶圓廠的定價動態。我認為在 23 年第一季初或結束時，您談到下半年的定價下降 10% 至 15%，結果下降了 22%。然後我認為現在您已經連續兩個季度談論價格穩定。顯然，您提到訂單輸入變得更好。

So would you be willing to provide any directional color on pricing? Like should we assume that the first half -- that the backlog you've priced for the first half of this year is somewhat similar to where you were in the fourth quarter, which would be consistent with kind of what you've said in the past 2 quarters, that pricing has stabilized?

那麼您願意在定價上提供任何方向性的顏色嗎？就像我們是否應該假設上半年 - 您為今年上半年定價的積壓訂單與第四季度的情況有些相似，這與您在過去兩個季度，定價已經穩定了嗎？

Well, I never do well in Vegas. So I don't think that given a projection is perhaps -- sorry, perhaps right. But directionally, I do believe, again, that the underlying structural demand is there.

嗯，我在維加斯從來都表現不好。所以我不認為給出的預測可能——抱歉，也許是正確的。但從方向來看，我再次相信潛在的結構性需求是存在的。

If you look at -- literally the last 18 to 24 months, you've seen these hot band pricing cycles, and they have not been driven by demand. They've been driven by motion, whether it be the threat or the anticipation of high interest rates and inflation and recession and all these sorts of things. They've been emotional pivots as opposed to demand pivots.

如果你看看過去 18 到 24 個月，你會看到這些熱門定價週期，而且它們並不是由需求驅動的。它們是由運動驅動的，無論是高利率、通貨膨脹和衰退以及所有這些事情的威脅還是預期。它們是情感樞紐，而不是需求樞紐。

And all we can say is that we do believe strongly that the underlying demand is going to be sustained through the year, and that should support pricing.

我們只能說，我們確實堅信潛在需求將持續一整年，這應該會支撐定價。

Okay. And then in terms of -- I think you noted the order entry in fab was the highest you've seen in the past 6 quarters, which is a pretty healthy statement. So I'm just curious, like what's driving that? A lot of the data we've seen in terms of warehouse starts is still somewhat negative. I know data centers is growing in other areas. But how do you characterize kind of the composition -- your end market composition of fabrication demand today versus maybe how that looked 18 months ago.

好的。然後，我認為您注意到晶圓廠的訂單輸入量是您在過去 6 個季度中看到的最高水平，這是一個非常健康的聲明。所以我很好奇，是什麼推動了這一點？我們看到的許多倉庫開工資料仍然有些負面。我知道其他領域的資料中心正在成長。但是，您如何描述當前製造需求的最終市場構成與 18 個月前的情況相比的特徵。

Here you may have additional commentary as well, but we're seeing a lot of incremental demand on the manufacturing side. We've been talking about onshoring that is actually happening, and that does have a good impact on the steel joist and deck market.

在這裡您可能還有其他評論，但我們看到製造方面有很多增量需求。我們一直在談論實際發生的外包，這確實對鋼托樑和甲板市場產生了良好的影響。

We're also seeing a lot of activity in the education side as well as in the, I'll call it, pharma or health care. And then anecdotally, you have to separate warehouses from data centers. We're continuing to see really good strength in the data center arena as well. Barry, I don't know if there's anything I'm missing.

我們還看到教育方面以及我稱之為製藥或醫療保健方面的大量活動。有趣的是，您必須將倉庫與資料中心分開。我們也持續看到資料中心領域的強大實力。巴里，我不知道我是否遺漏了什麼。

No, I'd just say that the mix is -- it's a good mix for them on the engineering side of the business to keep up with their lead times. So it isn't substantially different than the typical business flow that comes through its small changes in the segments that we're serving through fabrication.

不，我只想說，這種組合對於他們在業務工程方面來說是一個很好的組合，可以跟上他們的交貨時間。因此，它與我們透過製造服務的細分市場中的微小變化所產生的典型業務流程沒有太大不同。

Your next question for today is coming from Katja Jancic with BMO.

今天的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Katja Jancic。

Just quickly on the aluminum segment, you started disclosing the operating loss. Can you provide some color how we should think about the cost there over the next few quarters or how it should impact you?

很快，在鋁業務領域，您就開始揭露營業虧損。您能否提供一些信息，告訴我們我們應該如何考慮未來幾個季度的成本，或者它會對您產生什麼影響？

Katja, we did break out. So aluminum, because of the investment size, we will have a separate segment going forward. The -- we can't really give you projections on start-up losses. We expect them during 2024 to not be of significant size, and you will be able to see them. The one thing I'd note that you should recognize though, it's kind of an odd thing that's required from an accounting perspective, but those start-up losses actually get reflected in our SG&A amount. So if you see SG&A fluctuating, and maybe being higher than it is normally it's because those start-up losses during construction are actually included in that line.

Katja，我們確實爆發了。因此，由於鋁的投資規模，我們未來將有一個單獨的部門。我們無法真正為您提供新創企業損失的預測。我們預計 2024 年它們的規模不會太大，您將能夠看到它們。我要指出的是，您應該認識到，從會計角度來看，這是一件奇怪的事情，但這些啟動損失實際上反映在我們的 SG&A 金額中。因此，如果您看到 SG&A 波動，並且可能高於正常情況，那是因為施工期間的啟動損失實際上包含在該行中。

But is it a fair -- fair to assume that they should come up. I think in the fourth quarter, they were around $11 million? Or is that a fair assumption over the next few quarters?

但假設它們應該出現，公平嗎？我想第四季的銷售額約為 1100 萬美元？或者說這對未來幾季來說是一個合理的假設嗎？

We do have a good contingent of people on the ground now. But yes, during the year because we'll be expecting to actually still start up, as Mark said, in mid-2020, you're going to be seeing headcount increase as well as additional construction activity. So yes, you should expect to see those costs rise during 2024.

我們現在確實有一支很好的人員隊伍。但是，是的，在這一年中，因為我們預計實際上仍然會啟動，正如馬克所說，在 2020 年中期，你將看到員工人數增加以及額外的建設活動。所以，是的，您應該預計到 2024 年這些成本將會上升。

Your next question is coming from Alex Hacking with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking。

On Sinton, how much of Sinton's output is currently being sold into Mexico if I remember correctly, you were targeting something like 30% before that mill started up?

在 Sinton，如果我沒記錯的話，目前 Sinton 的產量有多少銷往墨西哥，在該工廠啟動之前，你們的目標是 30% 左右？

Yes, we've had a very good ability to move product into Mexico. We have a very established team down there that's been serviced in our Flat Roll Group for a while, but we added a warehouse capability in Monterrey. And last year, we moved about 600,000 tons into Mexico in various industries altogether. But we're very pleased with how the business is moving.

是的，我們有很好的能力將產品轉移到墨西哥。我們在那裡有一個非常成熟的團隊，已經在我們的扁平卷組中服務了一段時間，但我們在蒙特雷增加了倉庫能力。去年，我們總共向墨西哥輸送了約60萬噸各行業的貨物。但我們對業務的進展感到非常滿意。

We are welcoming -- being welcomed by the customer base in Mexico. And in many cases, we've had relationships and haven't had the ability to get the tons there. Sinton provides us the opportunity not just through proximity, but through the advanced product features that we have. So we have wider, we have heavier products than we would typically have.

我們很歡迎－受到墨西哥客戶群的歡迎。在很多情況下，我們已經建立了關係，但沒有能力到達那裡。 Sinton 為我們提供的機會不僅是因為距離近，而且是因為我們擁有先進的產品功能。因此，我們擁有比通常情況下更寬、更重的產品。

And these products are being very well received in the various industries. I would tell you that the continued near-shoring of manufacturing in the United States is very apparent with the investments we see in Mexico and the customer base there. So it continues to go along with our strategy as being a great place to do business, and we're excited about it.

這些產品在各個行業都非常受歡迎。我想告訴你，從我們在墨西哥看到的投資和那裡的客戶群來看，美國製造業的持續近岸化是非常明顯的。因此，它繼續符合我們作為做生意的好地方的策略，我們對此感到興奮。

Thanks, Barry. And then just a follow-up, if I may, on the ally rolling mill. How comfortable are you with your ability to source 900,000 tons of scrap or however much you need. I'm not as familiar with the ally scrap market, but it doesn't seem like there's particularly a lot of excess scrap. And I guess like how much -- just for context, how much does OmniSource handle today, how many tons.

謝謝，巴里。如果可以的話，然後是關於盟友軋機的後續行動。您對採購 90 萬噸廢料或您需要的任何數量的能力感到滿意嗎？我對盟友廢品市場不太熟悉，但似乎沒有特別多的多餘廢棄物。我猜想大概有多少——僅就上下文而言，OmniSource 今天處理了多少，有多少噸。

Great question. Obviously, I think we're advantaged by having OmniSource recycled platform because today, not only are they the largest or second largest ferrous scrap recycler that they are clearly the largest nonferrous recycler and they're recycling somewhere around 500 million pounds of aluminum. We also have a secondary aluminum operation here in Fort Wayne that we're making, I don't know, 260 million pounds or thereabouts of secondary aluminum.

很好的問題。顯然，我認為擁有OmniSource 回收平台對我們來說是有利的，因為今天，他們不僅是最大或第二大的黑色金屬廢料回收商，而且顯然是最大的有色金屬回收商，而且他們正在回收大約5億磅的鋁。我們在韋恩堡也有一家再生鋁工廠，我不知道我們正在生產 2.6 億磅左右的再生鋁。

So we're not -- it's not a new environment for us. I think we've got a great team. We've actually hired some incredible talent to supplement our already incredible talent. And so sourcing the material is not a -- we don't believe a major issue. If you look at our strategy, there are 2 principal kind of scrap streams, you might say.

所以我們不是——這對我們來說不是一個新環境。我認為我們有一支很棒的團隊。我們實際上已經聘請了一些令人難以置信的人才來補充我們已經令人難以置信的人才。因此，我們認為材料採購不是一個重大問題。如果你看看我們的策略，你可能會說，有兩種主要的廢料流。

One is for the automotive industrial base. The other is for canned stock and the UBC scrap is -- well, it's highly available in California. They're a deposit state. So there's a lot of aluminum UBC scrap generated up and down the West Coast, currently either moving to Asia or to the Midwest. And similarly, in Mexico, a sort of a UBC scrap arena, so that's why we're locating 2 facilities, 2 satellite facilities in those scrap-rich areas, collect the scrap at the source, molded and then the freight of then moving big solid slab versus scrap to the Midwest is at around about half the price. And so we're not only advantaging ourselves on the scrap collection side but economically on getting that aluminum to the mill.

一是汽車產業基地。另一種是罐裝原料，UBC 廢料是——嗯，它在加州很容易買到。他們是存款國家。因此，西海岸上下產生了大量 UBC 鋁廢料，目前要么轉移到亞洲，要么轉移到中西部。同樣，在墨西哥，有一種 UBC 廢料競技場，這就是為什麼我們在這些廢料豐富的地區設立 2 個設施、2 個衛星設施，從源頭收集廢料，成型，然後運送大件貨物運往中西部的實心板坯價格約為廢鋼價格的一半左右。因此，我們不僅在廢料收集方面有優勢，而且在將鋁運往工廠方面也具有經濟優勢。

Okay. Just one follow-up, if I may. This is probably a really dumb question, but I assume the facility can handle primary as well, if required.

好的。如果可以的話，我只想做一個後續行動。這可能是一個非常愚蠢的問題，但我認為如果需要的話，該設施也可以處理主要問題。

We certainly will. And you don't -- because you've got 900,000 tons of just to be clear, of cash need because the yield loss through the system, and when I say yield loss, it's not what we call perfect loss disappears, is just sort of a circular within the mill, you still only need roughly 650,000 tons of total input, 20% of which is primary.

我們當然會的。但你不會——因為需要明確的是，你有90 萬噸的現金需求，因為系統的收益率損失，當我說收益率損失時，這並不是我們所說的完美損失消失，只是某種程度的損失。工廠內的一個循環，仍然只需要大約 650,000 噸的總投入，其中 20% 是初級的。

Your next question for today is coming from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Just on Sinton, I think you mentioned hitting stride in the second quarter. How should we think about utilization for the full year? If I recall correctly, I think you had expected on 80% for the full year at the last quarterly earnings call. Is that still the target? Or should we assume a bit lower?

就在辛頓，我想你提到了第二節的進步。我們該如何考慮全年的使用率？如果我沒記錯的話，我想您在上一季財報電話會議上預計全年業績將達到 80%。這還是目標嗎？或者我們應該假設低一點？

It's my target, Barry?

這是我的目標，巴瑞？

No. We continue to strive for 80%. The team is doing, as Mark said, a phenomenal job. It's a big challenge of bringing such a big asset up all at once. The transporter problems have been unfortunate, but we have several fixes in the works.

不，我們繼續努力爭取80%。正如馬克所說，該團隊的工作非常出色。一次性調動如此龐大的資產是一個巨大的挑戰。運輸機的問題很不幸，但我們正在進行一些修復。

Approaching the problem for both resiliency is also is getting back to full power capacity. So we remain confident that the operational levels we're going to see 80% is the target the whole team is aware of. We're all certified to make that happen.

解決這兩種彈性問題的方法就是恢復到滿功率容量。因此，我們仍然有信心，我們將看到 80% 的營運水準是整個團隊都知道的目標。我們都經過認證可以實現這一目標。

And not to complicate the math. But if you think about it in January, we're approaching 75% utilization right now, that's 75% of older mill even though the team is handcuffed because of the lower power input. So we are quite confident to get to that 80% for the year.

並且不要使數學複雜化。但如果你想想一月份的情況，我們現在的利用率已經接近 75%，這是舊工廠的 75%，儘管團隊因功率輸入較低而受到限制。因此，我們非常有信心今年達到 80%。

Okay. We'll plug in 84%. No, just joking. Just on the -- I guess, things like onshore and the infrastructure bill. You said this is an expectation to benefit in 2024. I guess have you seen orders. When do you expect to see orders, should we think of this more as a second half '24 to really kind of benefit you? And then between, I guess, onshoring and infrastructure, specifically, which you've seen being more impactful for you this year?

好的。我們將插入 84%。不，只是開玩笑。我想，就例如陸上和基礎設施法案之類的事情。你說這是2024年受益的預期。我猜你看到訂單了嗎？您預計什麼時候會收到訂單，我們是否應該將其視為 24 年下半年才能真正使您受益？然後，我想，在外包和基礎設施之間，具體來說，您認為今年對您的影響更大？

Just from sort of a product mix, so to speak, the infrastructure growth. On the solar, it's already there. Solar has exploded. Renewables exploded last year, continues to grow dramatically. We were advantaged hugely both structural for the tubes and also for flat roll for support tubing. We're starting to see -- I don't think we can be specific on how that ramps up.

僅從產品組合來看，可以說是基礎設施的成長。在太陽上，它已經在那裡了。太陽能爆炸了。再生能源去年爆發式成長，並持續大幅成長。我們在管材的結構和支撐管的平捲方面都具有巨大的優勢。我們開始看到——我認為我們無法具體說明它是如何成長的。

But directionally, we're starting to see orders from bridge makers currently. And so that's -- the start, at least from my perspective, the start of a ramp-up in spend. We also see in the long products, a lot of, let's call it, foundational type structural sales. And even though it's a smaller division, Steel of West Virginia is very, very full with us right now with stuff that is tangential, whether it's solar fields, the support deal that goes in the ground or fork trucks and things like that, that go into these new factories and these new warehouses and data centers.

但從方向來看，我們目前開始看到橋樑製造商的訂單。所以這就是——至少從我的角度來看，支出增加的開始。我們也在長材產品中看到很多，我們稱之為基礎型結構性銷售。儘管這是一個較小的部門，但西維吉尼亞鋼鐵公司現在充滿了與我們無關的東西，無論是太陽能發電場、地下支援協議還是堆高機之類的東西，進入這些新工廠、新倉庫和資料中心。

So we do see a good bounce from that. We also see the pipeline industry in the states is picking up orders some cases for carbon sequestration lines as well as some major pipelines. So those markets are awake, and we see a lot of inquiry activity that is very exciting for us ultimately.

所以我們確實看到了良好的反彈。我們也看到各州的管道產業正在接受一些碳封存管道以及一些主要管道的訂單。因此，這些市場已經甦醒，我們看到了大量的詢問活動，這最終對我們來說非常令人興奮。

And just I want to encourage that there are some of you on the phone right now that may not understand that the infrastructure program and the IRA and anything related to the roads and bridges and construction, they don't really benefit long products. They benefit long products, they certainly benefit our Steel & joist and deck operations. But additionally, the flat roll operations have exposure to that as well, whether it's through HVAC systems or pipe and tube, like Barry just mentioned and there's a lot of impact on the flat roll side, and I would encourage you to think about that perspective as well.

我想鼓勵的是，現在你們中的一些人可能不明白基礎設施計劃和愛爾蘭共和軍以及與道路、橋樑和建築相關的任何事情，它們並沒有真正使長期產品受益。它們有利於長材產品，當然也有利於我們的鋼材和托樑以及甲板業務。但此外，平卷操作也受到這種影響，無論是透過暖通空調系統還是管道和管材，就像巴里剛才提到的，對平卷一側有很大的影響，我鼓勵您考慮這個觀點以及。

Your next question for today is coming from John Tumaz, a private investor.

今天的下一個問題來自私人投資者 John Tumaz。

Could you give us a little feedback on the potential 2025 CapEx. And with Sinton and the 4 coating lines in the aluminum and the carbon projects behind us, what are some of the leading candidates for the next capital investments going forward. And in particular, could you talk about growth in recycling where aluminum, copper, zinc have much lower global recycling rates than steel, in particular.

您能給我們一些關於 2025 年潛在資本支出的回饋嗎？憑藉 Sinton 以及我們身後的 4 條鋁塗層生產線和碳項目，未來下一次資本投資的一些主要候選人有哪些。特別是，您能否談談回收的成長，尤其是鋁、銅、鋅的全球回收率比鋼低得多。

Yes, we do have projects in mind for 2025. I'm not sure that we're prepared to go into that today. I would say from the perspective of capital spending, as I mentioned earlier on the call, aluminum will probably have a tail of somewhere between, call it, $200 million and $250 million. Our teams are consistently bringing us wonderful ideas that have high returns associated with them. Again, I'll point back to our ROIC. They do a good job of giving us those projects that have really great returns.

是的，我們確實有 2025 年的專案。我不確定我們今天是否準備好討論這個問題。我想說，從資本支出的角度來看，正如我之前在電話會議上提到的，鋁的尾部可能會介於 2 億美元和 2.5 億美元之間。我們的團隊不斷為我們帶來帶來高回報的精彩創意。我再次回到我們的投資報酬率。他們做得很好，為我們提供了那些回報豐厚的項目。

So the number for 2025, I would say would be a minimum of probably $500 million, something like that. because you do still have some sustaining capital as well, which for us is very low at around $160 million, but there's still some benefit there. Mark, I don't know if you want to add any addition to that?

所以我想說 2025 年的數字至少可能是 5 億美元，類似的數字。因為你仍然有一些維持資本，這對我們來說非常低，約為 1.6 億美元，但仍然有一些好處。 Mark，不知道你是否還想補充？

Just to get the CapEx part, not the whole thing. But no, John, is -- and Theresa has just mentioned, we have an absolutely incredible team that continues to be innovative. And if you were to -- I don't know, just be with us or be with that team, it's incredible. We have a new digital printing technology that we're exploiting, again, not big dollars, but it's going to be an incredibly, incredibly high-margin niche business.

只是為了獲得資本支出部分，而不是全部。但不，約翰，特蕾莎剛剛提到，我們擁有一支絕對令人難以置信的團隊，不斷創新。如果你——我不知道，只是和我們在一起或和那個團隊在一起，那就太不可思議了。我們正在開發一種新的數位印刷技術，雖然這不是大筆資金，但它將成為一項利潤率極高的利基業務。

We have 2 -- suffice it to say, 2 product segments that we're not in today in flat roll that we're exploring and they have a couple of innovative things there. So the pipeline in steel is still there, for sure. I think also -- and we've got to walk before we run. But in aluminum, I see that growth kind of paralleling the growth in steel, yes. We get on the front end, make the basic substrate, so to speak. And then from a processing standpoint, for instance, there's a massive, massive amount of the aluminum that gets pre-painted today. That's an expertise of ours.

我們有 2 個——可以說，2 個產品領域是我們今天沒有涉足的平卷產品領域，但我們正在探索，他們有一些創新的東西。所以鋼質管道肯定還在那裡。我也認為——我們必須在跑步之前先走。但在鋁方面，我認為這種增長與鋼鐵的增長是平行的，是的。可以這麼說，我們進入前端，製作基本基板。例如，從加工的角度來看，今天有大量的鋁被預先塗漆。這是我們的專業知識。

You can see growth and expansion there. So I think you witnessed it, John, almost personally over the years and shared our history, but we've clearly demonstrated the ability to be innovative and grow. I would emphasize grow in a very disciplined, intentional manner. That's the only way you can get the return on invested capital numbers that we achieve.

你可以看到那裡的成長和擴張。所以我認為約翰，多年來你幾乎親眼目睹了這一點，並分享了我們的歷史，但我們已經清楚地展示了創新和成長的能力。我會強調以一種非常有紀律、有目的的方式成長。這是您獲得我們所實現的投資資本回報率的唯一方法。

So both organically, but also through acquisition that there will continue to be opportunity there. But you will see us remain very, very disciplined, very, very intentional. We're not going to overpay for anything, and we're going to retain the best financial metrics in our industry.

因此，無論是有機的還是透過收購，那裡都會繼續存在機會。但你會看到我們仍然非常非常自律，非常非常有目的。我們不會為任何東西支付過高的費用，並且我們將保留行業中最好的財務指標。

As we build our financial models, if in 2025, the CapEx fell to somewhere, let's just say, for discussion in the range of $500 million to $1 billion, should we be increasing the share buyback dollars from the levels of the last several years given the drop in CapEx?

當我們建立財務模型時，如果到2025 年，資本支出下降到某個地方，我們可以說，討論範圍在5 億美元到10 億美元之間，考慮到我們是否應該在過去幾年的水平上增加股票回購金額資本支出下降？

So John, we want to be super clear that we see the share buyback program is a very good tool for us to be able to use and you've seen that. So very much the dividend, we've been increasing and we increased it with increases in our structural through-cycle cash flow generation when projects come online and then we do it pretty aggressively. We want to keep that positive momentum. But then we use that share buyback program during periods of excess cash flow when we maybe have less growth in mind, but we still are very much a growth company.

所以約翰，我們想非常清楚地表明，我們認為股票回購計劃是我們能夠使用的一個非常好的工具，你已經看到了這一點。因此，我們一直在增加股息，當專案上線時，我們會隨著結構性全週期現金流產生的增加而增加股息，然後我們會非常積極地這樣做。我們希望保持這種積極的勢頭。但是，我們會在現金流過剩期間使用股票回購計劃，此時我們的成長可能會放緩，但我們仍然是一家成長型公司。

To Mark's point, whether that's through greenfield assets or whether that's through acquisitions. But at the same time, we have the luxury that we don't have to sacrifice the share repurchase program. We absolutely can execute on all of those things. And that's what you'll continue to see us do in 2024 and 2025, absent extraneous things.

對馬克來說，無論是透過綠地資產還是透過收購。但同時，我們也有幸不必犧牲股票回購計畫。我們絕對可以執行所有這些事情。這就是我們在 2024 年和 2025 年繼續做的事情，沒有無關的事情。

I'm a happy shareholder.

我是一個快樂的股東。

Your next question is a follow-up question coming from Martin Englert.

您的下一個問題是馬丁恩格勒特提出的後續問題。

I appreciate the time for the follow-up. Just 2 quick ones here. Over the last 4 years, seasonal sequential 1Q gain in external steel volumes averaged about 7% quarter-on-quarter based on what you're seeing with order intake in the new year here, and then also taking into account the continued ramp in Sinton and value-added lines. Should we expect something at the core, similar on a sequential basis, around 7% and then layer in the additional volumes from ramping assets.

我很感謝您花時間進行後續跟進。這裡只有 2 個快速的。過去 4 年中，根據新年訂單量的情況，以及 Sinton 的持續增長，第一季外部鋼材銷量季節性環比平均增長約 7%和增值線。我們是否應該預期核心部分會有所增長，與環比類似，約為 7%，然後再考慮資產增加帶來的額外交易量。

Martin, we can't give directionality. Obviously, we had outages in the fourth quarter at 2 of our steel mills, and we won't have those in the first quarter. We've just mentioned that Sinton's going to be ramping up aggressively in the first quarter.

馬丁，我們無法給出方向。顯然，我們的兩家鋼廠在第四季出現了停電，而第一季不會停電。我們剛剛提到辛頓將在第一季積極崛起。

So all in all, absent any significant market moves, you should expect to see incremental volume from our steel operations. And as Barry pointed out, with the additional value-added lines, you're going to start to see that product mix get richer and richer. So it will go more into the processing lines. You'll eventually see some really great spread enhancement throughout the year as well?

總而言之，如果沒有任何重大的市場波動，您應該會看到我們鋼鐵業務的銷售量增加。正如巴里指出的那樣，隨著附加價值的增加，您將開始看到產品組合變得越來越豐富。因此，它將更多地進入加工生產線。您最終也會在一年中看到一些真正巨大的點差增強嗎？

What were the outages in 4Q? And I assume that you mentioned it because it did have an adverse impact on volumes?

第四季出現了哪些停電？我想你提到它是因為它確實對銷量產生了不利影響？

Martin, they weren't -- they were just normal outages. We take outages at our flat roll mills and in our long product mills. They weren't anything that were -- we didn't note them as far as from a volume perspective. But yes, obviously, when you have outages it does impact volume, but there was nothing of significance to note.

馬丁，他們不是——他們只是正常的停電。我們的平輥軋機和長材軋機停產。它們不是什麼——我們沒有從數量的角度注意到它們。但是，是的，顯然，當發生中斷時，它確實會影響容量，但沒有什麼值得注意的。

Okay. One last one, if I could, on the aluminum project. Based on the through cycle estimate to give implied EBITDA of around $900 to $1,000 per ton when you were coming up with that analysis, are you able to share what you think the bottom and top quartiles of profitability might look like when we think about peak to trough?

好的。如果可以的話，最後一篇是關於鋁項目的。根據整個週期的估計，當您提出該分析時，隱含EBITDA 約為每噸900 至1,000 美元，您能否分享一下，當我們考慮峰值時，您認為盈利能力的底部和頂部四分之一可能是什麼樣子？槽？

No, Martin, we're not. We do mid-cycle through cycle. And as we get more familiar, we just -- we don't provide that type of information.

不，馬丁，我們不是。我們在整個週期的中期進行。隨著我們越來越熟悉，我們只是——我們不提供此類資訊。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給米利特先生，讓他作結束語。

Well, thank you, everyone, and thank you, Holly, and thank you, everyone, on the call. I guess, as John noted, he's a happy shareholder. To be honest, everyone at SDI are happy shareholders because we all are equity holders and as part of the compensation for each and every one of us. Collectively, we do own a reasonable amount of our stock. And I would just emphasize that we treat your dollars just like they are our own. And we're absolutely focused on continuing to outstrip our competition relative to shareholder value creation through the cycle but we can't do it on our own. So any customers listening out thank you for your support.

好的，謝謝大家，謝謝霍莉，謝謝電話中的大家。我想，正如約翰所說，他是一位快樂的股東。說實話，SDI 的每個人都是快樂的股東，因為我們都是股東，也是我們每個人報酬的一部分。總的來說，我們確實擁有合理數量的股票。我想強調的是，我們對待您的美元就像對待我們自己的美元一樣。我們絕對專注於在整個週期中繼續超越我們在股東價值創造方面的競爭對手，但我們無法獨自做到這一點。因此，所有聆聽的客戶都感謝您的支持。

We have loyal support, and it takes us through the cycles, suppliers can do it without you and got to stress we have the best metals team in the world. Our people are absolutely phenomenal. Thank you for what you do each and every day. And for those that are owners on the call as well, thank you for your support. Have a great day. Bye-bye.

我們擁有忠誠的支持，它帶領我們度過了各個週期，供應商可以在沒有您的情況下做到這一點，並且必須強調我們擁有世界上最好的金屬團隊。我們的員工絕對是非凡的。感謝您每天所做的事情。對於那些參加電話會議的業主，感謝你們的支持。祝你有美好的一天。再見。

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and have a great and safe day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好而安全的一天。