Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please be advised this call is being recorded today, October 19, 2023, and your participation implies consent to our recording this call. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to David Lipschitz, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

請注意，本次通話將於今天（2023 年 10 月 19 日）進行錄音，您的參與即表示同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，請中斷連線。這次，我想將會議交給投資人關係總監 David Lipschitz。請繼續。

Thank you, Holly. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics' Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics; and Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually. Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward-looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning.

謝謝你，霍莉。早上好，歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中，並將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上重播。今天的電話會議由 Steel Dynamics 董事長兼執行長 Mark Millett 主持。執行副總裁兼財務長Theresa Wagler。我們高級領導團隊的其他成員將單獨加入我們的電話會議。今天的一些陳述僅代表當前情況，可能具有前瞻性和預測性，通常前面帶有相信、期望、預期或類似含義的詞語。

They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties related to integrating or starting up new assets. The aluminum industry, the use of estimates and assumptions in connection with anticipated project returns and our steel, metals recycling and fabrication businesses as well as to general business and economic conditions.

如果實際結果有所不同，它們將受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的保護。此類陳述涉及與整合或啟動新資產相關的風險和不確定性。鋁業，使用與預期項目回報和我們的鋼鐵、金屬回收和製造業務以及一般業務和經濟狀況相關的估計和假設。

Examples of these are described in the related press release as well as in our annual filed SEC Form 10-K under the headings Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors found on the Internet at www.sec.gov and, if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10-Q. You will also find any referenced non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics Reports Third Quarter 2023 results. And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

這些範例在相關新聞稿以及我們每年提交的SEC 表格10-K 中的「前瞻性陳述和風險因素」標題下進行了描述，可在互聯網www.sec.gov 上找到，如果適用，還可在任何在後續版本中找到。 SEC 表格 10-Q。您也可以在昨天發布的題為「Steel Dynamics 報告 2023 年第三季業績」的新聞稿中找到任何引用的非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標一致。現在我很高興將電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us on our third quarter earnings call. As you saw in the release, once again, our teams achieved a solid financial and operational quarter. Almost 80% of our facilities had 0 safety incidents and our company-wide trailing 12-month incident rate is running at an all-time low. So congratulation to everyone. But more importantly, thank you for all your work to make that happen. It takes each and every one of us to get there.

謝謝你，大衛。大家，早安。感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。正如您在新聞稿中看到的，我們的團隊再次實現了穩健的財務和營運季度表現。我們近 80% 的設施發生了 0 起安全事故，全公司過去 12 個月的事故發生率處於歷史最低水準。所以要祝賀大家。但更重要的是，感謝您為實現這一目標所做的一切努力。我們每個人都需要到達那裡。

Cash from operations was a healthy $1.1 billion and with adjusted EBITDA generation of $876 million and this performance truly affirms the cash generation and resiliency of our diversified value-added product portfolio, seeing significant momentum in our aluminum flat rolled investments, both current and prospective customers are excited by our market entry and a new and differentiated supply chain solutions we can provide. They are actually very, very surprised by the speed and completeness of our execution so far.

營運現金為11 億美元，調整後EBITDA 為8.76 億美元，這一業績真正證實了我們多元化加值產品組合的現金產生和彈性，我們的鋁壓延投資（無論是現有客戶還是潛在客戶）均呈現強勁勢頭我們對我們的市場進入以及我們能夠提供的新型差異化供應鏈解決方案感到興奮。事實上，他們對我們迄今為止執行的速度和完整性感到非常非常驚訝。

Sinton mill has proven its nameplate production capacity rate and full product capability but does remain challenged by equipment reliability issues. We are confident we can resolve the majority of these issues by the year end. Successes cannot be achieved without the best metals team in the industry. I'm incredibly proud of the whole SDI family. Their passion and spirit form the foundation of our company. They drive our success, and it's an honor to work among them.

Sinton 工廠已經證明了其銘牌產能率和完整的產品能力，但仍面臨設備可靠性問題的挑戰。我們有信心在年底前解決大部分問題。如果沒有業內最好的金屬團隊，就不可能取得成功。我為整個 SDI 家族感到無比自豪。他們的熱情和精神構成了我們公司的基礎。他們推動我們取得成功，與他們一起工作是我的榮幸。

In fact, in this world of turmoil with the human catastrophe happening in the Ukraine, the atrocities in Israel, the suppression of the Palestinian people. And even closer to home, the anger and diverseness within America and our political structure truly is inspiring to come to work each and every day and be surrounded by very, very positive people that think right, they get it, they treat people right and are focused on what we do each and every day.

事實上，在這個動盪的世界裡，烏克蘭發生了人類災難，以色列發生了暴行，巴勒斯坦人民遭受了鎮壓。即使在離家更近的地方，美國內部的憤怒和多樣性以及我們的政治結構確實鼓舞人心，讓我們每天上班，周圍都是非常非常積極的人，他們思考正確，他們明白，他們正確對待人們，並且專注於我們每天所做的事情。

As such, our greatest leadership commitment is to our SDI family, not only our colleagues that come to work for us or their partners in life and their kids. I remind our teams, great financial performance of no importance without keeping everyone safe. We continue to be focused on providing the very best for their health, safety and welfare. Today, the SDI family, when you include everyone, we have over 45,000 people that are reliant on the decisions we make each and every day, and we're focused -- we truly are focused on that. Together, we're actively engaged in safety at all times and at every level, keeping safety top of mind and an active conversation.

因此，我們最大的領導承諾是對我們的 SDI 大家庭，而不僅僅是為我們工作的同事或他們的生活伴侶和孩子。我提醒我們的團隊，如果不能保證每個人的安全，再好的財務表現也毫無意義。我們繼續致力於為他們的健康、安全和福祉提供最好的服務。今天，SDI 大家庭，當你把每個人都包括在內時，我們有超過 45,000 名員工依賴我們每天做出的決定，我們非常專注——我們真正專注於此。我們始終在各個層面積極參與安全工作，並始終將安全放在首位並積極地進行對話。

Before I continue, Theresa, would you like to give us some details.

在我繼續之前，Theresa，您願意向我們提供一些細節嗎？

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Mark. And my sincere appreciation to our teams for a really solid performance in the third quarter. Our third quarter 2023 net income was $577 million or $3.47 per diluted share with adjusted EBITDA of $876 million. Third quarter 2023 revenues of $4.6 billion and operating income of $734 million were lower than sequential second quarter results driven by lower realized steel and steel fabrication pricing. We see solid industry fundamentals for the rest of this year and beyond, and we're focused on our continued transformational growth initiatives.

大家，早安。謝謝你，馬克。我衷心感謝我們的團隊在第三季的出色表現。我們 2023 年第三季的淨利潤為 5.77 億美元，或稀釋後每股收益 3.47 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.76 億美元。由於鋼鐵和鋼鐵製造定價較低，2023 年第三季的營收為 46 億美元，營業收入為 7.34 億美元，低於第二季的連續業績。我們看到今年剩餘時間及以後的行業基本面將保持穩固，並且我們將專注於持續的轉型成長計劃。

Our steel operations generated operating income of $474 million in the third quarter, lower than sequential second quarter results due to flat rolled steel pricing metal spread compression as realized pricing declined more than average scrap costs. Our steel shipments remain steady at 3.1 million tons, excluding the lost volume of approximately 90,000 tons related to Sinton's unplanned July outage. We expect our 4 new flat rolled coating lines to begin operating in the first quarter of 2024 at both Sinton and Heartland, increasing our value-added mix by an additional 1 million tons, making so that our total coating capacity will be 6.9 million tons going forward.

我們的鋼鐵業務第三季營業收入為 4.74 億美元，低於第二季的連續業績，原因是扁鋼定價金屬價差壓縮，因為實現定價下降幅度超過平均廢鋼成本。我們的鋼材出貨量穩定在 310 萬噸，不包括因 Sinton 7 月計畫外停電而損失的約 9 萬噸。我們預計我們的 4 條新平軋塗層生產線將於 2024 年第一季在 Sinton 和 Heartland 開始運營，使我們的附加價值組合額外增加 100 萬噸，使我們的總塗層產能將達到 690 萬噸向前。

For those that track our detailed flat-rolled shipments, in the third quarter, we had hot rolled and P&O shipments of 858,000 tons, cold-rolled shipments of 132,000 tons and coated shipments of 1,202,000 tons. Operating income from our metals recycling operations was $19 million, significantly lower than second quarter results due to nonferrous and ferrous metal spread compression. Ferrous scrap demand was also reduced as numerous domestic steel mills had maintenance outages in the quarter. We are the largest North American metals recycler, processing and consuming ferrous scrap and nonferrous aluminum, copper and other metals.

對於那些追蹤我們詳細的扁鋼出貨量的人來說，第三季度，我們的熱軋和P&O出貨量為858,000噸，冷軋出貨量為132,000噸，塗層出貨量為1,202,000噸。我們的金屬回收業務的營業收入為 1,900 萬美元，由於有色金屬和黑色金屬價差壓縮，顯著低於第二季業績。由於國內眾多鋼廠本季出現檢修停運，廢鋼鐵需求也減少。我們是北美最大的金屬回收商，加工和消耗黑色金屬廢料以及有色鋁、銅和其他金屬。

The team continues to lever our circular manufacturing operating model, providing higher quality, lower-cost scrap to our steel mills, which improves furnace efficiency and reduces company-wide working capital requirements. Our steel fabrication operations achieved operating income of $330 million in the third quarter. Lower than sequential second quarter results yet historically strong as average realized pricing declined 11% and volumes declined 16,000 tons. Our steel joists and deck demand remained solid with good order activity.

團隊繼續利用我們的循環製造營運模式，為我們的鋼廠提供更高品質、更低成本的廢鋼，從而提高熔爐效率並降低全公司的營運資金需求。我們的鋼鐵製造業務第三季實現營業收入 3.3 億美元。第二季業績低於環比，但歷史強勁，平均實現價格下降 11%，銷量下降 16,000 噸。我們的鋼托樑和甲板需求保持穩定，訂單活動良好。

Our backlog extends through the first quarter of 2024. The backlog has contracted from record highs experienced in 2022 as shipments have outpaced spot order activity. Forward backlog pricing remains very strong and spot pricing resilience. Based on our backlog, customer sentiment and manufacturing momentum, we expect steel fabrication earnings to remain solid in the fourth quarter, but below third quarter levels based on seasonally lower volumes. Infrastructure, Inflation Reduction Act, Department of Energy decarbonization support and manufacturing onshoring are expected to support domestic fixed asset investment in related steel and joists and deck consumption in the coming years.

我們的積壓訂單一直持續到 2024 年第一季。由於出貨量超過了現貨訂單活動，積壓訂單已較 2022 年創下的歷史高點有所收縮。遠期積壓定價仍然非常強勁，現貨定價彈性也很強。根據我們的積壓訂單、客戶情緒和製造勢頭，我們預計第四季度鋼鐵製造利潤將保持穩健，但由於季節性銷售下降而低於第三季水準。基礎設施、通貨膨脹削減法案、能源部脫碳支援和製造業外包預計將在未來幾年支持國內相關鋼鐵和托樑以及甲板消費的固定資產投資。

Our cash generation continues to be strong based on our differentiated circular business model and variable cost structure. During the third quarter of 2023, we generated strong cash flow from operations of $1.1 billion and generated $2.7 billion on a year-to-date basis. At September 30, we achieved record liquidity of $3.7 billion, inclusive of cash, liquid investments and our unsecured $1.2 billion revolver. Year-to-date of 2023, we've invested $1.1 billion in capital investments.

基於我們差異化的循環業務模式和變動成本結構，我們的現金產生能力持續強勁。 2023 年第三季度，我們的營運產生了 11 億美元的強勁現金流，年初至今創造了 27 億美元的現金流。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的流動性達到創紀錄的 37 億美元，其中包括現金、流動投資和 12 億美元的無擔保左輪手槍。截至 2023 年迄今，我們已投資 11 億美元的資本投資。

For the fourth quarter, we estimate capital investments will be in the range of $500 million to $550 million, of which around $350 million is related to our aluminum flat rolled investments. Much of the remaining capital is related to the completion of our 4 new value-added coated lines. In February, we increased our cash dividend 25% to $0.425 per common share. Year-to-date 2023, we've also repurchased $1.1 billion of our common stock, representing almost 6% of our outstanding shares. At September 30, $278 million remained authorized for repurchase under our existing $1.5 billion authorized plan.

對於第四季度，我們預計資本投資將在 5 億至 5.5 億美元之間，其中約 3.5 億美元與我們的鋁壓延投資相關。剩餘資金大部分用於完成我們 4 條新的增值塗層生產線。 2 月份，我們將現金股利提高了 25%，達到每股普通股 0.425 美元。 2023 年迄今，我們也回購了價值 11 億美元的普通股，幾乎占我們已發行股票的 6%。截至 9 月 30 日，根據我們現有的 15 億美元授權計劃，仍有 2.78 億美元可用於回購。

Since 2017, we've increased our dividend per share by 174% and repurchased $5.2 billion of our common stock, representing over 40% of our outstanding shares. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes high-return growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that's complemented with a variable share repurchase program. We remain dedicated to preserving our investment-grade credit designation at the same time.

自 2017 年以來，我們將每股股息增加了 174%，並回購了 52 億美元的普通股，占我們已發行股票的 40% 以上。我們的資本配置策略優先考慮高回報成長，股東分配包括基本的正股利狀況，並輔以可變股票回購計畫。同時，我們仍然致力於維持我們的投資等級信用稱號。

Our free cash flow profile has fundamentally changed over the last 5 years, generating from an annual average of $540 million to $2.6 billion today. We've placed ourselves in a position of strength to have a sustainable capital foundation that provides the opportunity for meaningful strategic growth and strong shareholder returns while maintaining investment-grade metrics. Our aluminum growth strategy is consistent with this philosophy. We will readily fund our flat-rolled aluminum investments with available cash and cash flow from operations.

過去 5 年來，我們的自由現金流狀況發生了根本性變化，從年均 5.4 億美元增加到如今的 26 億美元。我們已將自己置於擁有永續資本基礎的優勢地位，為有意義的策略成長和強勁的股東回報提供機會，同時保持投資等級指標。我們的鋁成長策略與此理念是一致的。我們將隨時利用可用現金和營運現金流為我們的壓延鋁投資提供資金。

We also plan to continue strong and responsible shareholder distributions as we've clearly demonstrated. We're squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable optimized long-term value creation. Sustainability is also a significant part of our long-term value creation strategy, and we're dedicated to our people, our communities and our environment. We're committed to operating our business with the highest integrity. In that regard, we remain excited about our joint venture with Aymium, a leading producer of renewable biocarbon products. We believe our first joint venture facility could decrease our Steel Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 35% and we currently expect to have the facility operating in the second half of 2024.

我們也計劃繼續進行強而有力且負責任的股東分配，正如我們已經明確表明的那樣。我們已做好充分準備，持續可持續優化的長期價值創造。永續發展也是我們長期價值創造策略的重要組成部分，我們致力於為我們的員工、社區和環境服務。我們致力於以最高的誠信經營我們的業務。在這方面，我們對與可再生生物碳產品領先生產商 Aymium 的合資企業仍然感到興奮。我們相信，我們的第一家合資工廠可以將我們的鋼鐵範圍 1 溫室氣體排放量減少多達 35%，目前我們預計該工廠將於 2024 年下半年投入營運。

We have an actionable path toward carbon neutrality that is more manageable and we believe considerably less expensive than they lay ahead for many of our industry peers. Our sustainability and carbon reduction strategy is an ongoing journey, and we're moving forward with its intention to make a positive difference.

我們擁有一條更易於管理的實現碳中和的可行途徑，而且我們相信，比許多行業同行所面臨的成本要低得多。我們的永續發展和減碳策略是一個持續的旅程，我們正在繼續前進，旨在產生積極的影響。

And again, before I turn the call back over to Mark, I just want to thank the teams for a great performance. Mark?

再說一次，在我把電話轉回給馬克之前，我只想感謝團隊的出色表現。標記？

Thank you, Theresa. As you saw, the steel fabrication platform continues to perform well and it turned in another solid quarter. We continue to have high expectations for the future earnings profile of this business. We believe nonresidential construction markets will be strong in the coming years. Some residential starts and build rates are forecast to remain strong into 2024 and related spending has been higher in 2023 compared to the last year at this time.

謝謝你，特蕾莎。正如您所看到的，鋼鐵製造平台繼續表現良好，並在另一個季度實現了穩健的成長。我們繼續對該業務的未來獲利狀況抱有很高的期望。我們相信未來幾年非住宅建築市場將會強勁。預計一些住宅開工率和建設率將在 2024 年保持強勁，且 2023 年的相關支出將高於去年同期。

So political dysfunction has delayed the awarding of public monies likely into the first quarter of next year. The infrastructure spending and fixed asset investment related to the IRA programs, along with the reshoring and manufacturing should provide momentum for additional construction spending through 2024, effectively extending the construction cycle. And customer commentary, as I talked to our folks out there, has confirmed our positive outlook. Steel fabrication order backlog is certainly shortened from its historical high of over 12 months achieved in 2022, but it remains strong from a historical perspective, standing through March 2024, with strong forward pricing. Current order entry pricing remains resilient.

因此，政治失靈導致公共資金的發放可能延後到明年第一季。與 IRA 計劃相關的基礎設施支出和固定資產投資，以及回流和製造業將為 2024 年之前的額外建設支出提供動力，從而有效延長建設週期。當我與我們的員工交談時，客戶評論證實了我們的積極前景。鋼鐵製造訂單積壓量肯定比 2022 年超過 12 個月的歷史高點有所縮短，但從歷史角度來看，其積壓量仍然強勁，一直持續到 2024 年 3 月，且遠期定價強勁。目前的訂單輸入定價仍然具有彈性。

Not only a significant contributor onto itself, our fabrication platform provides meaningful pull-through volume across steel mills. Particularly important in softer markets, plan for a higher through-cycle steel production utilization rates compared to our peers, adding to the resiliency of our through-cycle cash generation. Furthermore, it provides an effective natural hedge to lower steel prices. Our metals recycling platform had a challenging quarter as demand from domestic steel mills softened and realized ferrous scrap prices declined.

我們的製造平台不僅是其自身的重要貢獻者，而且還為鋼廠提供了有意義的牽引量。在疲軟的市場中尤為重要的是，與同行相比，計劃提高整個週期的鋼鐵生產利用率，從而增強我們整個週期現金生成的彈性。此外，它還為降低鋼材價格提供了有效的自然對沖。由於國內鋼廠的需求疲軟以及廢鐵價格下降，我們的金屬回收平檯面臨充滿挑戰的季度。

Scarp prices pulled back in the third quarter with busheling prices falling some $80 a ton. The North American geographic footprint of our metals recycling platform provides a strategic competitive advantage for our electric arc furnace steel mills and our scrap generating customers. In particular, our Mexican locations competitively advantaged our Columbus and Sinton raw material positions. We also strategically support aluminum scrap procurement for our future flat-rolled aluminum investments. Our metal's team is partnering even more closely with both our steel and aluminum teams to expand scrap separation capabilities through process and technological solutions, enhancing margin and increasing the availability of low residual ferrous scrap.

第三季廢品價格回落，每噸下降約 80 美元。我們的金屬回收平台的北美地理足跡為我們的電弧爐鋼廠和廢鋼生產客戶提供了戰略競爭優勢。特別是，我們的墨西哥工廠使我們的哥倫布和辛頓原料地位具有競爭優勢。我們也策略性地支持未來扁軋鋁投資的鋁廢料採購。我們的金屬團隊正在與我們的鋼鐵和鋁團隊更加緊密地合作，透過製程和技術解決方案擴大廢料分離能力，提高利潤並增加低殘留黑色廢料的可用性。

This will mitigate prime ferrous scrap supply issues in the future. It will also provide us with significant advantage to materially increase the recycled content for our aluminum flat rolled products and increase our earnings opportunities on that platform. Our steel operations achieved strong shipments of 3.1 million tons and solid financial results in the third quarter. Steel production utilization rate when you exclude Sinton was 90% compared to a domestic industry rate of some 76%. Higher utilization rates have been clearly demonstrated throughout all market cycles, driven by the value-added diversified product offerings which amount to 70% of our sales.

這將緩解未來主要黑色金屬廢料的供應問題。它還將為我們提供顯著的優勢，大幅增加鋁壓延產品的回收含量，並增加我們在該平台上的獲利機會。我們的鋼鐵業務第三季實現了 310 萬噸的強勁出貨量和穩健的財務業績。排除 Sinton 因素後，鋼鐵生產利用率為 90%，而國內產業的利用率約為 76%。在占我們銷售額 70% 的增值多元化產品供應的推動下，在所有市場週期中都清楚地證明了更高的利用率。

And this as Theresa mentioned, will increase further with the addition of 2 galvanizing and 2 paint lines that will be commissioned in the first quarter of '24. Differentiated supply chain solutions driving customer preference and mitigating price volatility and support of downstream internal pull-through manufacturing volume are all contributors. Our higher through-cycle utilization rate is a key differentiator and supports our strong and growing through cycle cash generation capability and best-in-class financial metrics. Looking forward, steel backlogs are strong and customer order entry is good. Customer inventories are also at historically low levels.

正如 Theresa 所提到的，隨著 2 條鍍鋅線和 2 條噴漆線將於 2024 年第一季投入使用，這一數字將進一步增加。差異化的供應鏈解決方案推動了客戶偏好、減輕了價格波動以及支持下游內部拉動製造量，這些都是貢獻者。我們較高的整個週期利用率是一個關鍵的差異化因素，它支持我們強大且不斷增長的整個週期現金產生能力和一流的財務指標。展望未來，鋼材積壓情況強勁，客戶訂單進入狀況良好。客戶庫存也處於歷史低點。

Auto production estimates for '23 remain around 15 million units. But obviously, with the ongoing strike, the outlook for the remainder of the year is somewhat opaque. So positively, dealer inventories remain below historical norms, which will be further reduced by the ongoing strike. Demand there is still strong and with tight supply the auto build rate will likely be higher than the already anticipated 16 million unit plus for '24. In the meantime, unfortunately, our auto direct flat roll exposure is more concentrated towards European and Asian producers, which so far has mitigated the strike impact on our flat rolled auto volume.

23 年汽車產量預計仍維持在 1,500 萬輛左右。但顯然，隨著罷工的持續，今年剩餘時間的前景有些不透明。因此，積極的一面是，經銷商庫存仍低於歷史正常水平，持續的罷工將進一步減少庫存。那裡的需求仍然強勁，而且由於供應緊張，汽車建造率可能會高於已經預計的 24 年 1600 萬輛以上。同時，不幸的是，我們的汽車直接平卷敞口更集中於歐洲和亞洲生產商，到目前為止，這減輕了罷工對我們平卷汽車產量的影響。

Although not a significant impact to overall earnings, we are seeing greater impact at our Engineered Bar division as their 15%, 20% auto exposure is mostly consumed by domestic auto producers. Nonresidential construction remains solid. A long product steel backlogs are good and customer inventory levels are low. General market is estimated to be up 8% or some due to seasonality, but should rebound as infrastructure spending provides meaningful support in the first half of '24. The turndown in residential construction seems to be abating with the depletion of available home inventory.

儘管對整體收益影響不大，但我們看到工程酒吧部門受到的影響更大，因為其 15%、20% 的汽車敞口主要由國內汽車生產商消耗。非住宅建設依然穩健。長材鋼材積壓狀況良好，客戶庫存水準較低。由於季節性因素，一般市場預計將上漲 8% 或部分上漲，但隨著基礎設施支出在 24 年上半年提供有意義的支持，應該會反彈。隨著可用房屋庫存的耗盡，住宅建設的衰退似乎正在減弱。

Oil and gas activity is strong, driving improved orders for OCTG products and still continues to grow at a rapid rate. In total aggregate, long product demand remains solid. And in flat roll, lead times are expanding. We're seeing excellent order entry, supply chain inventory is low and pricing is certainly in an upward trend. We certainly anticipate further meaningful strength once the strike is concluded.

石油和天然氣活動強勁，推動了油井管產品訂單的增加，並且仍在繼續快速成長。整體而言，長材需求依然強勁。在平卷中，交貨時間正在延長。我們看到訂單輸入情況良好，供應鏈庫存較低，而且價格肯定呈上升趨勢。我們當然預期罷工結束後會出現進一步有意義的力量。

Turning to Sinton. After the unplanned July outage related to the caster shear, the Sinton team produced over 290,000 tons in the quarter. The mill has clearly demonstrated its production rate capability when achieving 36 heat sequence lengths, and it's exceeded its hourly nameplate run rate. However, as I said, the constrained production is manifest from a low utilization rate caused principally by equipment reliability issues. That said, we expect to progressively ramp up to about 70% total run rate by the end of 2023, reaching a production of 2.4 million tons for 2024.

轉向辛頓。在 7 月與連鑄剪有關的意外停電之後，Sinton 團隊本季的產量超過 29 萬噸。該工廠在實現 36 個加熱序列長度時清楚地展示了其生產率能力，並且超過了其每小時的銘牌運行率。然而，正如我所說，生產受限主要是由於設備可靠性問題造成的低利用率。也就是說，我們預計到 2023 年底總開工率將逐步提高到 70% 左右，到 2024 年產量將達到 240 萬噸。

Despite our challenges, the team has demonstrated the key competitive advantages of the Texas steel mill. We have completed full product dimensional capability. It's proven up to 1-inch thick down to 0.53, I do believe, up to 84-inch width. Customers are reporting exceptional surface quality and the hot strip mill design is allowed for thermomechanical rolling, allowing production of higher strength grades -- tough grades with lower alloy content and thus lowering costs for those value-added products.

儘管面臨挑戰，團隊還是展現了德州鋼廠的關鍵競爭優勢。我們已經完成了完整的產品尺寸能力。事實證明，它的厚度可達 1 英寸，厚度可達 0.53 英寸，我相信，寬度可達 84 英寸。客戶報告說，其具有出色的表面質量，並且熱帶鋼軋機的設計允許進行熱機械軋製，從而可以生產更高強度的牌號——具有較低合金含量的堅韌牌號，從而降低這些增值產品的成本。

We've achieved Grade 80 and 100 and already been approved for some API grades. I think just generally, it affirms our technical and process choices. And there's no doubt that in my mind, it's the next generation of electric arc furnace flat-rolled steel technology of choice. We have gained strong market acceptance, and we can sell every pound of steel we make. Our exceptional through-cycle operating and financial performance, continues to support our cash generation and our growth investment strategies.

我們已經達到了 80 級和 100 級，並且已經獲得了某些 API 等級的批准。我認為總的來說，它肯定了我們的技術和流程選擇。毫無疑問，在我看來，它是下一代電弧爐平軋鋼技術的首選。我們已經獲得了強烈的市場認可，我們生產的每一磅鋼材都可以出售。我們卓越的整個週期營運和財務表現繼續支持我們的現金產生和成長投資策略。

Relative to our expansion into aluminum, as I said, the responses from existing and new customers across all markets is absolutely incredible. We are developing the site. We purchased some 2,600 acres, I do believe. But we're developing it for the co-location of customers for the rolling mill as we successfully did in Sinton. We're seeing a number of customers are already indicating strong interest in that model because it provides a sustainable competitive model for all of us.

正如我所說，相對於我們向鋁業的擴張，所有市場的現有客戶和新客戶的反應絕對令人難以置信。我們正在開發該網站。我確實相信，我們購買了大約 2,600 英畝土地。但我們正在為軋機客戶的同一地點開發它，就像我們在辛頓成功所做的那樣。我們看到許多客戶已經對該模型表現出濃厚的興趣，因為它為我們所有人提供了可持續的競爭模型。

To recap the project the 650,000 metric ton flat roll facility, that will be located in Columbus, Mississippi, state-of-the-art facility, serving the sustainable beverage and packaging, automotive and industrial sectors. Approximately 300,000 metric tons will be can, 200,000 tons auto and 150,000 industrial. We have on-site melt and cast slab capacity in Columbus of around 600,000 metric tons. And the project will be supported by 2 satellite recycled aluminum slab casting centers, one in Central Mexico and one in Arizona to capture scrap close to its source. We'll have 2 cash lines, coating lines and downstream processing and packaging lines to fully support our customers base.

回顧該項目，該項目將位於密西西比州哥倫布市的 65 萬噸平卷工廠，該工廠擁有最先進的設施，為永續飲料和包裝、汽車和工業部門提供服務。罐頭產量約 30 萬噸，汽車產量為 20 萬噸，工業產量為 15 萬噸。我們在哥倫布擁有約 60 萬噸的現場熔煉和鑄造板坯產能。該項目將得到兩個衛星再生鋁板坯鑄造中心的支持，一個位於墨西哥中部，一個位於亞利桑那州，以收集靠近其來源的廢料。我們將擁有 2 條現金生產線、塗裝生產線以及下游加工和包裝生產線，以全力支持我們的客戶群。

Setup plans are still anticipated for a mid-25 start up for the rolling mill. Mexico Slab Center should start up late '24, perhaps January '25 and Arizona Slab Center in the first quarter of '25. Total project cost including all recycled slab centers is around $2.5 billion, 100% to be funded with cash. As we've stated in the past, we expect a through cycle annual EBITDA of around about $650 million to $700 million from the aluminum portion. And the support of OmniSource will draw another $40 million to $50 million for them. I think the market from an investment premise perspective, what excites me is the market environment is very similar to the domestic steel industry when we started SDI 30 years ago.

預計軋機將於 25 月中旬啟動安裝計畫。墨西哥板中心應該在 24 年末啟動，也許是 25 年 1 月，亞利桑那板中心應該在 25 年第一季啟動。包括所有回收板中心在內的項目總成本約為 25 億美元，其中 100% 由現金資助。正如我們過去所說，我們預計鋁部分的整個週期年度 EBITDA 約為 6.5 億至 7 億美元。 OmniSource 的支援將為他們再吸引 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。我覺得這個市場從投資前提的角度來看，讓我興奮的是這個市場環境和30年前我們創辦SDI時的國內鋼鐵業非常相似。

The industry generally has older assets, had a tough time earning its cost of capital. There's been little reinvestment over the last 4, 5 years. It has heavy legacy costs tends to be inefficient in high-cost operations. Again parallels to the situation we saw within the steel industry 30 Years ago. According to that, we see a definite deficiency in supply that exists in North America, and that deficiency is expected to grow even with our and second competitor's new facility.

該行業通常擁有較舊的資產，很難賺取資本成本。過去四、五年幾乎沒有再投資。它具有沉重的遺留成本，在高成本營運中往往效率低。這又與 30 年前我們在鋼鐵業看到的情況相似。據此，我們發現北美存在明顯的供應短缺，即使我們和第二個競爭對手的新工廠建成，這種供應短缺預計也會加劇。

From our perspective, it is an adjacent industry to us. It leverages our ability to design and build commission ramp-up for large capital assets and operate those assets very effectively, efficiently at low cost through our performance incentivized, innovative and very effective culture.

從我們的角度來看，它是與我們相鄰的行業。它利用我們為大型資本資產設計和建立佣金成長的能力，並透過我們的績效激勵、創新和非常有效的文化，以低成本非常有效、有效率地經營這些資產。

In closing, we're excited and in passion and we always are and we continue to be by our future growth opportunities as they will continue the high returning growth momentum we have consistently demonstrated over the years. Culture and business model continue to positively differentiate our performance, leading to best-in-class financial metrics, allowing a balanced cash allocation strategy that is rewarded our shareholder by top-in-class returns.

最後，我們對未來的成長機會感到興奮和熱情，我們始終如此，我們將繼續如此，因為它們將繼續我們多年來一貫表現出的高回報成長勢頭。文化和商業模式繼續積極區分我們的業績，帶來一流的財務指標，實現平衡的現金分配策略，為我們的股東帶來一流的回報。

We're no longer a pure steel company, but an integrated metals business providing enhanced supply chain solutions to the industry. In turn, mitigating volatility and cash flow generation through all market cycles. Our teams, our foundation. I thank each and every one of them for their passion and their dedication. We're committed to them. And as I remind those listening today that safety for yourselves and your families and to each other is the highest of priorities.

我們不再是一家純粹的鋼鐵公司，而是一家為產業提供增強型供應鏈解決方案的綜合金屬企業。反過來，減輕所有市場週期的波動性和現金流的產生。我們的團隊，我們的基礎。我感謝他們每一個人的熱情和奉獻精神。我們致力於他們。正如我提醒今天聽眾的，你們自己、你們家人以及彼此的安全是最重要的。

We're competitively positioned and continue to focus on providing superior value for our company, our customers, team members, our shareholders alike.

我們處於競爭地位，並將繼續專注於為我們的公司、客戶、團隊成員和股東等提供卓越的價值。

Thank you. Thank you for joining us again today. And Holly, we would love to turn it over to questions.

謝謝。感謝您今天再次加入我們。霍莉，我們很樂意將其轉為問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question for today is coming from Martin Englert at Seaport Research Partners.

你們今天的第一個問題來自海港研究合作夥伴公司的馬丁恩格勒特。

Within the steel segment, steel conversion costs, which do include some substrate costs increased, I think, to around about $576 per ton in the quarter from $522. Is there any additional color that you can share regarding the portion of substrates and maybe some positives and negatives when you think about the sequential change in contributions between true conversion costs and substrates as well as if there was any material impact from the Sinton outage on that conversion cost.

我認為，在鋼鐵領域，鋼鐵轉換成本（其中確實包括一些基材成本）從本季的每噸 522 美元增加到每噸 576 美元左右。當您考慮真實轉換成本和基材之間貢獻的連續變化以及辛頓停電是否對此產生任何重大影響時，您是否可以分享關於基材部分的任何其他顏色，以及可能的一些積極和消極因素轉換成本。

Martin, it's Theresa. Great question and observation. It really didn't have anything to do with the change in substrate mix, but that can have an impact. But there's 2 things that I would point to. One is the fact that because Sinton didn't operate all of July, the way that you're calculating your conversion cost that lack of volume does have a pretty significant impact. It's not that there was additional costs. The costs were pretty de minimis. It's just that lost volume affecting the denominator. It's really affecting your conversion cost on a per ton basis a little bit on an outsized way.

馬丁，這是特蕾莎。很好的問題和觀察。它確實與底物混合的變化沒有任何關係，但這可能會產生影響。但我要指出兩件事。其一是，由於 Sinton 整個 7 月都沒有運營，因此計算轉換成本的方式缺乏交易量確實會產生相當大的影響。這並不是說有額外的費用。成本是微乎其微的。只是損失的體積影響了分母。它確實對每噸的轉換成本產生了很大的影響。

The second thing is that we are preparing to start the value-added lines in Heartland and then Sinton will follow thereafter in the coming months and there's some additional costs related to that as well. But nothing to point to that would be a systemic of higher conversion costs going forward.

第二件事是，我們正準備在 Heartland 啟動增值線路，然後 Sinton 將在接下來的幾個月內跟進，並且還有一些與此相關的額外成本。但沒有任何跡象表明，未來將出現系統性的更高的轉換成本。

Okay. So there is certainly a one-off that seemed material for the quarter and then some lingering kind of transitory as you're working on ramping the other value-added assets that well, how long do you think that will persist for through the fourth quarter and then in the first quarter of next year? Any idea?

好的。因此，肯定有一個對本季度來說似乎很重要的一次性事件，然後是一些揮之不去的暫時性事件，因為您正在努力增加其他增值資產，那麼您認為這種情況會持續到第四季度多久然後是明年第一季？任何想法？

No. So Martin, with the advent of now operating and not being a part of that outage, you're going to have that incremental volume, which is going to really make the conversion costs get back in line with what you're used to seeing but the value-added line, there is some incremental cost. It's nothing that is necessarily significant that you'll have to try to figure out for the fourth quarter. We have 2 of the lines coming online maybe even before the end of the year with the remaining 2 for the first -- probably first couple of months in the first quarter.

不會。因此，馬丁，隨著現在運營的出現，並且不再是停電的一部分，您將獲得增量，這將真正使轉換成本恢復到您習慣的水平但從增值線來看，存在一些增量成本。沒有什麼是你必須在第四季度嘗試弄清楚的必然重要的事情。我們有 2 條線路可能會在今年年底之前上線，剩下的 2 條線路將在第一季上線——可能是第一季的前幾個月。

If I could one last one here, excluding 2020, looking at seasonality in 4Q of total steel shipments, they tend to decline around 5% sequentially. Is there anything you're seeing this year that would suggest something different. And I imagine comparing the sequential with the Sinton outage and on Sinton back up probably might have an impact here on a sequential basis?

如果我可以在這裡最後一項，排除 2020 年，看看第四季度鋼鐵總出貨量的季節性，它們往往會環比下降 5% 左右。今年你看到的東西有什麼東西會暗示一些不同的東西嗎？我想將順序與 Sinton 中斷和 Sinton 備份進行比較可能會在順序基礎上產生影響？

Yes. So you're spot on, Martin. We would expect to see normal seasonality within the steel operations. But as you have now Sinton ramping up and operating for the full fourth quarter, you will see some benefit from that additional volume.

是的。所以你說得對，馬丁。我們預計鋼鐵業務將出現正常的季節性。但由於 Sinton 現在在整個第四季度都在加速運營，您將看到額外銷售帶來的一些好處。

And you're aiming for 70% utilization on exit for the year, with Sinton, correct?

您的目標是辛頓今年退出時的利用率達到 70%，對嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay. Congratulations navigating the downward market in the continued growth investments.

好的。恭喜您在持續成長的投資中度過了下行市場。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Your next question is coming from Carlos De Alba at Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

So just continuing on Sinton, I wonder if you can give us a little bit of color on the EBITDA generated by the operation and how do you see that going forward?

那麼，繼續討論 Sinton，我想知道您能否向我們介紹該業務產生的 EBITDA，以及您對未來的看法如何？

Carlos, can you repeat that?

卡洛斯，你能再說一次嗎？

Yes, yes, sure. So just on Sinton, given the average that you experienced, but things now are ramping up nicely and you expect full production, well at least production throughout the fourth quarter. How do you see the evolution of the EBITDA generated by the company -- by the plant, Sinton?

是的，是的，當然。因此，就 Sinton 而言，考慮到您所經歷的平均水平，但現在情況正在良好地增長，您預計將全面生產，至少在整個第四季度實現生產。您如何看待公司（辛頓工廠）產生的 EBITDA 的演變？

Carlos, we can't give -- we won't give specific guidance on the earnings associated with Sinton. We are giving updated items on volume so that you can understand from a modeling perspective. So we would expect to see a significant improvement from the third quarter given the fact that we weren't operating all of July. But that means that I really can't give you any guidance specific to what the EBITDA will be at Sinton.

卡洛斯，我們不能給出——我們不會給出與 Sinton 相關的收益的具體指導。我們正在批量提供更新的項目，以便您可以從建模的角度進行理解。因此，考慮到我們整個 7 月都沒有運營，我們預計第三季會有顯著改善。但這意味著我真的無法為您提供任何關於 Sinton 的 EBITDA 的具體指導。

All right. And then just maybe one more on the fabrication business. You did mention strong forward pricing in your backlog. Is there any additional color that you can provide, given the extraordinary strong pricing that we have seen in recent quarters relative to history?

好的。然後也許還有一個關於製造業的問題。您確實在積壓訂單中提到了強勁的遠期定價。鑑於我們最近幾季看到的相對於歷史而言異常強勁的定價，您是否可以提供任何額外的顏色？

No, that's okay. It has to do with fabrication and the price in the backlog. So from a historical basis and even from recent 2023 pricing in the backlog is very strong, much higher than previous historical peaks. We've seen that be maintained the spot market where the order activity isn't as strong as it was in 2022, it's still really good from a historical basis but that is contracting the backlog somewhat. So now it extends through the first quarter of 2024.

不，沒關係。這與積壓訂單中的製造和價格有關。因此，從歷史基礎來看，甚至從最近的 2023 年來看，積壓訂單的定價非常強勁，遠高於先前的歷史高峰。我們看到，現貨市場的訂單活動不如 2022 年強勁，但從歷史角度來看仍然非常好，但積壓訂單有所減少。所以現在它延續到 2024 年第一季。

And I think something else that when we just -- I want to keep it in perspective, Mark mentioned it on his opening notes, but I want to reiterate it because I think it's really important. We've been talking about the IRA monies, the Department of Energy monies, monies are coming from the administration for public dollars. It's our estimate others would agree that there's likely not even 5% to 10% of that money that's been allocated or awarded yet. It's going much slower than anyone had expected and much lower than the administration had indicated that it would.

我認為當我們只是——我想正確看待這一點時，馬克在他的開場白中提到了這一點，但我想重申這一點，因為我認為這非常重要。我們一直在談論愛爾蘭共和軍的資金、能源部的資金、來自政府的公共資金。據我們估計，其他人也會同意，這筆資金可能甚至還沒有 5% 到 10% 被分配或授予。它的進展比任何人預期的都要慢得多，也比政府表示的要低得多。

So those projects aren't benefiting the elongation of construction, steel assumptions, fixed asset investment, steel joists and deck demand as well. We're fully expecting and what we're hearing from the administration and from others is that those dollars will start flowing in the first half of 2024. So right now, there's a bit of a gap in funding, and I think you're seeing that in the volumes, but we fully expect that to pick up and improve in 2024 and 2025.

因此，這些項目並沒有利於建築工程的延長、鋼鐵假設、固定資產投資、鋼托樑和甲板需求。我們完全期待，我們從政府和其他人那裡聽到的是，這些資金將在 2024 年上半年開始流動。所以現在，資金存在一些缺口，我認為你正在我們從數量上看到了這一點，但我們完全預期這一情況將在2024 年和2025 年有所回升和改善。

Your next question for today is coming from Tristan Gresser at Exane BNP Paribas.

今天的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Tristan Gresser。

Yes. Maybe the first one, following up on the fabrication you provided some guidance back in Q2. And I now understand that the stable volume guidance half-on-half is no longer valued. So I was wondering if -- and it's not the first time the guidance has been cut there. So what is driving quarter after quarter that they kind of cut and that weakness and you provided some color on the sequential movements, I guess, on the scale side for Q4 volumes, can you tell us a little bit more about fab? And the same question a little bit on ASP.

是的。也許是第一個，跟進您在第二季度提供的一些指導。而我現在明白，穩定的成交量指引已不再受重視。所以我想知道是否——這並不是第一次削減指導意見。那麼，是什麼推動了它們逐季削減和疲軟，我​​想，在第四季度產量的規模方面，您提供了有關連續走勢的一些信息，您能告訴我們更多有關晶圓廠的信息嗎？同樣的問題也有一點關於 ASP。

You guided for down 10% to 15% in H2 versus H1 on the ASP front, but Q3 ASP is already down 17% versus that level. So can you help us try to calibrate the weakness in ASP we should expect in Q4, but also in Q1 because you have some visibility into that quarter as well.

您預計下半年 ASP 將較上半年下降 10% 至 15%，但第三季 ASP 已較該水準下降 17%。那麼，您能否幫助我們嘗試校準我們應該在第四季度以及第一季預期的平均售價的弱點，因為您對該季度也有一定的了解。

From a modeling perspective, Tristan, from a volume I mentioned in my opening notes that we do expect to see some regular seasonality in the steel fabrication volume as well. So sequentially, we would expect it to be modestly lower than what you would have seen in the third quarter. But again, we're not attesting that to -- I think I addressed the consumption question when I responded to Carlos.

從模型的角度來看，特里斯坦，從我在開頭筆記中提到的一卷來看，我們確實預計鋼鐵製造量也會出現一些規律的季節性。因此，我們預計它會略低於第三季的水平。但同樣，我們並沒有證明這一點——我想我在回答卡洛斯時已經解決了消費問題。

As it relates to average pricing, again, the backlog is very strong. If you're having seasonally lower volumes, I think it's a reasonable expectation to think pricing will be down somewhat, but we don't see it being in the same magnitude as the sequential second to third quarter. It will be somewhat less than that.

由於與平均定價相關，積壓的訂單量非常大。如果銷量季節性下降，我認為價格會下降是合理的預期，但我們認為其幅度與第二季至第三季的幅度不同。會比這個少一些。

Relative to the pricing, the market actually has been a little confounding because since mid-July, we have seen the market being very, very strong, very solid. In fact, order input rate has been great. You have a situation where people was more emotional. There's no main structural change in demand that allowed our first pricing down. It was more emotional relative to the strike. Mid-September when people recognize that it's sort of already been baked into the price.

相對於定價，市場實際上有點令人困惑，因為自 7 月中旬以來，我們看到市場非常非常強勁、非常穩固。事實上，訂單輸入率已經很大了。在這種情況下，人們更加情緒化。需求方面沒有重大結構性變化，導致我們首次下調定價。相對於罷工來說，這更加情緒化。九月中旬，人們意識到它已經融入了價格。

When they saw that inventories are very, very, very low in the supply chain. You see that lead times are already stretching higher. That we've seen an inflection and there is definitely an upward momentum in flat rolled pricing today. It's our anticipation and the anticipation of others that there's going to be quite a marked increase in pricing once there's a resolution to that strike. Looking forward, we see a very pretty positive constructive market environment.

當他們看到供應鏈中的庫存非常非常低。您會發現交貨時間已經延長了。我們已經看到了拐點，並且今天的平卷定價肯定有上升勢頭。我們和其他人都預計，一旦罷工得到解決，價格將會大幅上漲。展望未來，我們看到非常積極的建設性市場環境。

That's very helpful. If I just have a quick follow-up and this time more on the capital allocation side. I mean, given the current context, and I think you touched on and you reaffirm what are your capital allocation priority are. Can you just reiterate what's your view on inorganic growth? And could you confirm that at the moment, you're not interested in looking at the large acquisition on the flat rolled side, and that's not an area of focus? And that right now, 100% of your attention is on aluminum.

這非常有幫助。如果我能快速跟進，這次更多的是在資本配置方面。我的意思是，考慮到目前的情況，我認為您談到並重申了您的資本配置優先事項是什麼。能否重申一下您對無機成長的看法？您能否確認，目前您對平軋方面的大型收購不感興趣，而且這不是重點領域？現在，您 100% 的注意力都集中在鋁上。

Tristan, we can't confirm that. So from a growth perspective, we're very transparent on capital allocation. Our primary focus is for high-return growth and that can be both organically and it can be transactional. We are very much focused on the aluminum strategy, and that will be a priority. We are sitting with record liquidity at the end of the quarter of $3.7 billion. So we really have, I think, the luxury, and we don't take it for granted because of the performance of the teams, which is incredible.

特里斯坦，我們無法證實這一點。因此，從成長的角度來看，我們在資本配置方面非常透明。我們的主要關注點是高回報成長，這既可以是有機成長，也可以是交易性成長。我們非常關注鋁戰略，這將是優先事項。截至本季末，我們的流動性達到創紀錄的 37 億美元。所以我認為我們確實擁有這種奢侈，而且我們不會因為團隊的表現而認為這是理所當然的，這是令人難以置信的。

The luxury to be able to both invest organically transactionally if there was something that were to fit into our long-term strategy as well as continue with the strong shareholder returns. And that at this point in time is our full intent is to be able to accomplish that.

如果有適合我們長期策略的東西，並且能夠繼續獲得強勁的股東回報，那麼能夠進行有機交易投資是一種奢侈。此時此刻，我們的全部目的就是能夠實現這個目標。

All right. That's very clear.

好的。這非常清楚。

Your next question is coming from Timna Tanners at Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

Wanted to just ask a little bit more about Sinton. If I go back in my notes a couple of years ago, you were talking about being at full capacity, 3 million tons and now you're talking about 70%, 80%. So I'm just trying to understand, is there some reason that it's no longer expected to run full out? Or are you just assuming like maybe some gradual ramp up? I just want to understand that better.

只是想多問一些關於辛頓的事情。如果我回顧幾年前的筆記，你們談論的是滿載生產，300 萬噸，而現在你們談論的是 70%、80%。所以我只是想了解，是否有某種原因導致它不再有望滿載運行？或者您只是假設可能會逐漸增加？我只是想更好地理解這一點。

No, that's fine. We probably have not done an elegant job of explaining that. The 70% is just the run rate at the end of this year, Timna. Again, we'll continue to ramp up. We expect to be 2.4 million tons total production next year, which I think is around about 80% of the 3 million. And then we will continue to ramp up from there. There's absolutely no doubt that the plant capability can exceed the 3 million ton nameplate that we've advertised in the past.

不，沒關係。我們可能還沒有很好地解釋這一點。 70%只是今年年底的運行率，Timna。再次，我們將繼續加大力度。我們預計明年總產量為 240 萬噸，我認為約為 300 萬噸的 80% 左右。然後我們將繼續從那裡開始。毫無疑問，該裝置的產能可以超過我們過去宣傳的300萬噸銘牌。

And I guess just to bring a little bit more clarity to that, we would expect to be operating around that full capacity by the middle of 2024. Mark is just giving a total year view.

我想，為了更清楚地說明這一點，我們預計到 2024 年中期將達到滿載營運。馬克只是給出了全年的整體展望。

Helpful. Okay. One other timing question was really on the downstream lines that are going to really enrich your product mix. And in the presentation, it says they're starting in the second half, but I thought I heard you saying they were contributing more in the first half. So just trying to get the cadence of when that ramps up.

有幫助。好的。另一個時機問題實際上是在下游生產線上，這將真正豐富您的產品組合。在演示中，它說他們從下半場開始，但我想我聽到你說他們在上半場貢獻更多。所以只是想了解加速的節奏。

Yes, it probably should have been updated in the investor deck. I'm guessing that's what you're pointing toward. We're planning to have the Heartland paint line and the Heartland galvanizing line running first which could be towards the end of 2023, but probably moving into the first month, 1.5 months in 2024 and then very closely thereafter, Sinton's additional paint line and galvanizing line will be starting as well still within the first quarter of 2024.

是的，它可能應該在投資者平台中進行更新。我猜這就是你所指的。我們計劃首先運行Heartland 油漆生產線和Heartland 鍍鋅生產線，這可能會在2023 年底前運行，但可能會進入2024 年的第一個月，也就是1.5 個月，然後緊接著，Sinton 的額外油漆生產線和鍍鋅生產線將開始運作。該線路也將在 2024 年第一季內啟動。

That's all great. And then the last question, if I could squeeze it in, just on the CapEx guidance. I think we had last quarter, you had talked about a number for 2024 of about $1.5 billion. And just with the higher CapEx guide for Q4, we just wanted to check on if that number is still right for 2024.

這一切都很棒。然後是最後一個問題，我是否可以將其壓縮到資本支出指導上。我認為上個季度，您談到了 2024 年的數字約為 15 億美元。有了第四季度更高的資本支出指南，我們只是想檢查一下這個數字在 2024 年是否仍然正確。

You're welcome, Timna. Actually, we're in the middle of planning for 2024 on the capital investment side right now. It looks like it's going to be closer to $1.8 billion to possibly $2 billion. I'll be able to put a finer point on that as we get through the first quarter. But it's primarily comprised of a little bit more on the aluminum side, just from a timing perspective, not a total investment. So aluminum may be as much as $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion next year. We also have the construction and start-up of the biocarbon facility, which could be as much as $150 million to $175 million. And then we have some tail to the 4 value-added lines as well of maybe $100 million.

不客氣，蒂姆納。事實上，我們現在正在規劃 2024 年的資本投資方面。看起來它將接近 18 億美元到 20 億美元。當我們完成第一季時，我將能夠更詳細地闡述這一點。但它主要包括鋁方面的更多內容，只是從時間角度來看，而不是總投資。因此明年鋁的價格可能高達 13 億至 14 億美元。我們也建造和啟動生物碳設施，耗資可能高達 1.5 億至 1.75 億美元。然後我們還有 4 條加值業務的尾部，價值可能為 1 億美元。

So I will be putting a finer point on that. But right now, I'd say it's probably in the range of $1.8 billion to $2 billion.

所以我會對此進行更詳細的闡述。但現在，我想說它可能在 18 億美元到 20 億美元之間。

Your next question for today is coming from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

We've been seeing some reports that the U.S. and Europe are ahead of this summer tomorrow, maybe looking at removing some of the tariffs or adjusting quotas and things like that. I guess assuming that some of this does happen and quotas go away, how would you see this impact in the U.S. steel market?

我們看到一些報導稱，美國和歐洲明天將迎來今年夏天，可能會考慮取消部分關稅或調整配額等。我想假設這種情況確實發生並且配額取消，您會如何看待美國鋼鐵市場的影響？

Well, I guess we don't have the same intelligence that others have from our folks on the hill and conversations. It really seems still up in the air. The European position and the U.S. position are totally at odds. And not much progress has been made. But maybe, we're wrong. That said, Obviously, the tariffs today, a lot of that has been negotiated away in only probably 25% or so of incoming steel imports are affected by that.

嗯，我想我們並沒有像其他人一樣從山上的人和談話中獲得情報。看起來確實還懸而未決。歐洲的立場和美國的立場完全不一致。而且還沒有太大進展。但也許，我們錯了。也就是說，顯然，今天的關稅，其中許多關稅已經透過談判取消，大約只有 25% 左右的鋼材進口受到影響。

Obviously, quotas are in place with Brazil and others, I would imagine that they will remain in place in some form of fashion European tariffs, maybe that is a little different, but Europe is not really a influence on our market in all honesty. If you look at the straightforward arbitrage today between Asian pricing and European pricing, not that attractive. We don't necessarily see a big influence there. We do feel strongly that any tariff and quota type activity will transition into some form of carbon tax on border tax. Actually, in the long run, will likely be a lot more effective than the (inaudible) in place today.

顯然，巴西和其他國家已經實行了配額，我想它們將以某種形式的時尚歐洲關稅繼續存在，也許這有點不同，但老實說，歐洲並沒有真正對我們的市場產生影響。如果你看看今天亞洲定價和歐洲定價之間的直接套利，就沒那麼有吸引力了。我們不一定會在那裡看到很大的影響。我們確實強烈認為，任何關稅和配額類型的活動都將轉變為某種形式的邊境稅碳稅。事實上，從長遠來看，可能會比今天的（聽不清楚）有效得多。

Again, we need to remember and highlight that the principal trade constraints, the countervailing duty, antidumping cases that were brought in 2015 went through sunset last summer and got continued. I think it's another 5 years. Those are legislative in nature. They won't change. They firmly, firmly -- or eliminate these imports, for instance. Certainly, in addition with following concert with the countervailing duty.

再次，我們需要記住並強調，2015 年提起的主要貿易限制、反補貼稅、反傾銷案件在去年夏天已經結束，並且仍在繼續。我想又是5年了。這些本質上是立法性質的。他們不會改變。例如，他們堅定地、堅決地──或消除這些進口。當然，此外還要與反補貼稅相配合。

Okay. Second question. So on bar volumes, so you mentioned that there's some impact with the strike, but the strike really only started, I guess, late in the third quarter. So how should we think about the trajectory of volumes, assuming a bigger hit in the fourth quarter for that segment?

好的。第二個問題。關於酒吧銷量，您提到罷工有一些影響，但我猜罷工實際上是在第三季末才開始的。那麼，假設該細分市場在第四季受到更大打擊，我們該如何考慮銷售軌跡？

Well for us, we don't really see a major change in volume from an automotive perspective in the fourth quarter for us. As I mentioned in my notes, we have a large percentage of our auto book is European and Asian, they are not impacted by the strike as of now. We are -- we do have some business with Stellantis and with Ford. But again, on a percentage basis, it's not going to be monumental to our both volume or earnings.

對我們來說，從汽車角度來看，我們在第四季度並沒有真正看到銷量發生重大變化。正如我在筆記中提到的，我們的汽車預訂中很大一部分來自歐洲和亞洲，到目前為止，他們還沒有受到罷工的影響。我們確實與 Stellantis 和福特有一些業務。但同樣，從百分比來看，這對我們的銷售或收入來說不會產生巨大影響。

Your next question is coming from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Independent Research.

您的下一個問題來自約翰·圖馬佐斯獨立研究中心的約翰·圖馬佐斯。

All the great dynamics benefiting the steel business, industry-wide apparent demand looks like it's trending about 8 million tons below the average of 2017, '18, '19. I don't know what's normal, but I'm looking to the pre-pandemic period. Your own choice business is of 16,000 tons sequentially and I guess, 56,000 tons year-on-year, and there's no inventories in choice because they're made custom order. What are the segments that are down that are negating some of the other growth or accounting for the decline, a high-rise office building with work at home with lower consumer spending, e-commerce warehouses and retail space or port. Are there any other segments that could account for the deviations?

所有這些巨大的動力都對鋼鐵業有利，全行業的表觀需求看起來比 2017 年、'18、'19 年的平均水平低約 800 萬噸。我不知道什麼是正常的，但我正在展望大流行前的時期。你自己選擇的業務是連續16,000噸，我猜，同比是56,000噸，並且選擇沒有庫存，因為它們是定制訂單。哪些細分領域的下降抵消了其他一些成長或導致了下降，例如消費者支出較低、在家工作的高層辦公大樓、電子商務倉庫以及零售空間或港口。還有其他部分可以解釋偏差嗎？

Well, I think from a -- we've got some feedback going on here. But the -- we're talking is principally fabrication here. Yes, I think when -- Again, all we can do, John, is look through our book -- order book lands. But obviously, the distribution warehouse arena has come off. Not stopped. It's Amazon obviously came out very publicly sort of almost holding the development because they overbuilt.

嗯，我想我們已經收到了一些回饋。但我們在這裡談論的主要是捏造的。是的，我想當——再說一遍，約翰，我們所能做的就是瀏覽我們的書——訂購書。但顯然，配送倉庫領域已經衰退。沒有停止。亞馬遜顯然非常公開地表示幾乎要保留該開發項目，因為他們過度建造了。

That's not the case with other distributors. It's still an ongoing market for us, although it is down. But I think we picked it up education. Healthcare has been positive. And the -- just manufacturing facilities, the battery plants, the chip plants are picking up, not at the rate to offset, totally offset that distribution base. But nonetheless, it's picking up strongly, and we would anticipate continued growth next year. Just the infrastructure, the IRA spending, that certainly will bolster our order book there and give it some support.

其他經銷商的情況並非如此。儘管市場有所下降，但對我們來說，這仍然是一個持續的市場。但我認為我們接受了教育。醫療保健一直是積極的。而且，只是製造設施、電池工廠、晶片工廠正在回升，但沒有達到抵消的速度，完全抵消了分銷基地的影響。但儘管如此，它正在強勁增長，我們預計明年將繼續增長。只是基礎設施、愛爾蘭共和軍的支出，肯定會增加我們在那裡的訂單並給予它一些支持。

In terms of the 2-year decline in spot sheet prices of $1,200 from big records, how much damage do you think that's caused across consumer and distributor inventory, as you know, when prices fall. People don't want to hold the hot potato.

就現貨價格從大記錄中下降 1,200 美元而言，您認為當價格下跌時，您知道這會對消費者和分銷商庫存造成多大損害。人們不想手握燙手的山芋。

Well, I think the biggest impact is the reduced level of speculation in the supply chain, in fact, there's not a reduced level of speculation. People just don't speculate anymore. So you see people that's kind of hand and mouth. They tend to be ordering and buying on an as-needed basis. That allows consistent shipping since July -- mid-July, where we've seen very, very, very consistent order input rates and deliveries.

嗯，我認為最大的影響是供應鏈的投機程度減少了，事實上，投機程度並沒有減少。人們只是不再猜測。所以你會看到人們的手和嘴。他們傾向於按需訂購和購買。這使得自 7 月中旬以來的運輸保持一致，我們看到訂單輸入率和交付量非常、非常、非常一致。

Even as the pricing came off, the pricing this time and just as it was last year. Last year, we had a similar story with a very constructive outlook for 2023 which in all honesty came to fruition. The emotion last year was always us we're headed for a recession. We got a high interest rates, inflation, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. There was no change -- no structural change in underlying demand in the fourth quarter of last year. We're seeing the same thing today. Demand is very, very solid across virtually every market sector that we have yet we see -- saw that softness, strike-related emotional.

即使定價下來了，這次的定價也和去年一樣。去年，我們也經歷過類似的故事，對 2023 年的前景非常有建設性，但老實說，它已經實現了。去年我們的情緒始終是我們正在走向衰退。我們面臨高利率、通貨膨脹等等。去年第四季基本需求沒有結構性變化。今天我們看到了同樣的事情。我們所看到的幾乎所有市場領域的需求都非常非常強勁——看到了與罷工相關的疲軟情緒。

People are starting to see lead time stretch out. They're starting to see or get a little worried. We're booked there and essentially our order book is closed for November. And given the interest we see for December, we haven't opened that book yet. We're not so sure we will be able to satisfy the total appetite there. So it's a positive market momentum going into '24.

人們開始看到交貨時間延長。他們開始看到或有點擔心。我們已經在那裡預訂了，基本上我們的訂單簿在 11 月就關閉了。考慮到 12 月的興趣，我們還沒有打開那本書。我們不太確定是否能夠滿足那裡的全部胃口。因此，進入 24 世紀，市場呈現出積極的勢頭。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給米利特先生，讓他作結束語。

Well, thank you, Holly, for anyone that remains on the line. I would tell you, I am blessed, SDI is blessed, each and every one of us is blessed here because we have phenomenal loyal customers. Thank you for your support today and in the future. We have great service providers. We've got a phenomenal, phenomenal team of people that come to work, as I said earlier, inspired and positive each and every day. So thank you.

嗯，謝謝你，霍莉，謝謝所有還在線上的人。我想告訴你，我很幸運，SDI 很幸運，我們每個人在這裡都很幸運，因為我們擁有非凡的忠誠客戶。感謝您今天和未來的支持。我們擁有優秀的服務提供者。正如我之前所說，我們擁有一支非常非常出色的團隊，他們每天都充滿靈感和積極工作。所以謝謝。

Thank you for those that our shareholders and those aren't, I would hope that you consider us because we will create better shareholder value than most folks in the years ahead. So thank you very much. Have a good day. Bye-bye.

感謝我們的股東和非股東，我希望您考慮我們，因為我們將在未來幾年創造比大多數人更好的股東價值。非常感謝。祝你有美好的一天。再見。

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and have a great and safe day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好而安全的一天。