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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this call is being recorded today, April 20, 2021, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Tricia Meyers, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.
美好的一天,歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,本次通話將於今天(2021 年 4 月 20 日)進行錄音,您的參與即表示同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款,請中斷連線。現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係經理 Tricia Meyers。請繼續。
Tricia Meyers - IR Manager
Tricia Meyers - IR Manager
Thank you, Daryl. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today. Leading today's call are Mark Millett, President and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics; and Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually and we are all following appropriate social -- as we are all following appropriate social distancing guidelines.
謝謝你,達裡爾。早上好,歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。謹此提醒,今天的通話正在錄音中,並將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上重播。今天的電話會議由 Steel Dynamics 總裁兼執行長 Mark Millett 主持。執行副總裁兼財務長Theresa Wagler。我們高級領導團隊的其他成員正在單獨加入我們的電話會議,我們都遵循適當的社交——就像我們都遵循適當的社交距離準則一樣。
Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward-looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties related to our steel, metals recycling and fabrication businesses as well as to our general business and economic conditions. Examples of these are described in the related press release as well as in our annually filed SEC Form 10-K under the headings Forward-looking Statements and Risk Factors found on the Internet at www.sec.gov, and if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10-Q. You will also find any referenced non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics Reports Record First Quarter 2021 Results.
今天的一些陳述僅代表當前情況,可能具有前瞻性和預測性,通常前面帶有相信、期望、預期或類似含義的詞語。如果實際結果有所不同,它們將受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的保護。此類陳述涉及與我們的鋼鐵、金屬回收和製造業務以及我們的整體業務和經濟狀況相關的風險和不確定性。這些範例在相關新聞稿以及我們每年提交的SEC 表格10-K 中的「前瞻性陳述和風險因素」標題下進行了描述,可在互聯網www.sec.gov 上找到,如果適用,還可在任何在後續版本中找到。 SEC 表格 10-Q。您還可以在昨天發布的題為“Steel Dynamics 報告創紀錄的 2021 年第一季業績”的新聞稿中找到任何引用的非 GAAP 財務指標,這些指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標一致。
And now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.
現在我很高興將電話轉給馬克。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Thank you, Tricia. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to our first quarter -- I'll start again. Good morning, everybody. I had you folks on mute. But welcome to our first quarter '21 earnings call. We certainly appreciate you joining us today. I believe the entire Steel Dynamics team delivered a tremendous first quarter performance. It was filled with operating and financial records, including record net sales, operating income and adjusted EBITDA. It was an extraordinary performance yet again, driven by the dedication and passion of our teams. I'm incredibly proud to work with each of them. They're a special group accomplishing exceptional things.
謝謝你,特里西亞。大家早安。歡迎來到我們的第一季—我會重新開始。大家早安。我讓你們靜音了。歡迎參加我們 21 年第一季的財報電話會議。我們當然感謝您今天加入我們。我相信整個 Steel Dynamics 團隊第一季的表現非常出色。它充滿了營運和財務記錄,包括創紀錄的淨銷售額、營運收入和調整後的 EBITDA。在我們團隊的奉獻和熱情的推動下,這再次是一場非凡的表演。我非常自豪能夠與他們每個人一起工作。他們是一個特殊的群體,成就著非凡的事。
Due to the continued commitment of our teams to one another, our families and our customers, we continue to operate safely amidst COVID-19. Operations have continued essentially unabated. We continue to closely monitor the situation and adapt as necessary to ensure our team's health. The health and welfare of our teams is the highest priority, and I thank each of them for their continued commitment to our safety. Because record results don't matter unless everyone goes home safely at the end of each day, the number of injuries and their severity improved in the first quarter '21 compared to last year.
由於我們的團隊對彼此、家人和客戶的持續承諾,我們在新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情期間繼續安全運作。行動仍在繼續,基本上沒有減弱。我們將繼續密切監視局勢並根據需要進行調整,以確保我們團隊的健康。我們團隊的健康和福祉是重中之重,我感謝他們每個人對我們安全的持續承諾。由於除非每個人在每天結束時都安全回家,否則創紀錄的結果並不重要,因此與去年相比,21 年第一季的受傷人數及其嚴重程度有所改善。
The teams are focused on reducing hazards and practices that could result in significant injury. Nothing is more important than the health and safety of our people. Safety is, and always will be, our #1 value. Our safety performance continues to be significantly better than industry statistics, but our intent will always be the drive towards zero-incident work environments. To achieve this, we must all continuously be aware of our surroundings and our fellow team members, keeping safety top of mind to control safety, both in the traditional sense and as it relates to keeping one another in good health.
這些團隊致力於減少可能導致嚴重傷害的危險和做法。沒有什麼比我們人民的健康和安全更重要。安全是而且永遠是我們的第一價值觀。我們的安全績效持續明顯優於行業統計數據,但我們的目的始終是推動零事故工作環境。為了實現這一目標,我們所有人都必須不斷了解我們的周圍環境和我們的團隊成員,將安全放在首位,以控制安全,無論是傳統意義上的安全,還是與保持彼此健康有關的安全。
Before I continue further, Theresa will provide insights into our recent performance. So Theresa?
在我繼續之前,特蕾莎將提供我們最近表現的見解。那麼特蕾莎?
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. I want to add my sincere appreciation and congratulations to the entire Steel Dynamics team. As Mark said, we achieved numerous milestones and delivered a record first quarter performance. We achieved record revenues of $3.5 billion, derived from near-record quarterly steel shipments, record fabrication shipments and strong product pricing across all of our operating platforms. We achieved record quarterly operating income of $594 million and net income of $431 million or $2.03 per diluted share. And we had strong cash flow from operations of $262 million with a record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $664 million, truly an extraordinary performance.
謝謝你,馬克。大家,早安。我想向整個 Steel Dynamics 團隊致以誠摯的謝意和祝賀。正如馬克所說,我們實現了許多里程碑,並創造了創紀錄的第一季業績。我們實現了創紀錄的 35 億美元收入,這得益於我們所有營運平台上接近創紀錄的季度鋼材出貨量、創紀錄的製造出貨量以及強勁的產品定價。我們實現了創紀錄的季度營業收入 5.94 億美元,淨利潤為 4.31 億美元,即稀釋後每股收益 2.03 美元。我們的營運現金流強勁,達到 2.62 億美元,季度調整後 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 6.64 億美元,這確實是一個非凡的業績。
Our first quarter 2021 results included cost of approximately $20 million or $0.07 per diluted share associated with the construction of our Sinton, Texas flat-rolled steel mill. Excluding these costs, first quarter 2021 adjusted net income was $445 million or $2.10 per diluted share, above our guidance of $1.94 to $1.98 due to stronger-than-anticipated March steel shipments as order activity remains very strong. Our first quarter 2021 revenues of $3.5 billion were 36% higher than sequential fourth quarter results, with growth from all of our operating platforms and most significantly, from our steel and metals recycling operations based on record flat-rolled steel selling values and strong shipments. Our first quarter 2021 operating income was $594 million, $335 million or 130% higher than sequential fourth quarter results due to higher realized flat-rolled steel pricing more than offsetting increased scrap costs.
我們 2021 年第一季的業績包括與德州辛頓扁鋼廠建設相關的成本約為 2,000 萬美元,即稀釋後每股 0.07 美元。排除這些成本,2021 年第一季調整後淨利為4.45 億美元,即稀釋後每股收益2.10 美元,高於我們1.94 至1.98 美元的指導,原因是訂單活動依然強勁,3 月份鋼鐵出貨量強於預期。我們2021 年第一季的營收為35 億美元,比第四季的連續業績成長36%,成長來自我們所有的營運平台,最重要的是我們的鋼鐵和金屬回收業務,基於創紀錄的扁鋼銷售價值和強勁的出貨量。我們 2021 年第一季的營業收入為 5.94 億美元,比第四季的連續業績高出 3.35 億美元,即 130%,原因是扁鋼的實現定價更高,足以抵銷廢鋼成本的增加。
As we discuss our business this morning, you'll find we continue to see positive industry fundamentals for the remainder of 2021, and we are confident in our forthcoming unique earnings catalysts. For steel operations, we generated $641 million of operating income in the first quarter, more than double fourth quarter's sequential earnings as flat-rolled steel selling values increased significantly to record levels throughout the first quarter, driving expanded metal margins. We also saw expanded margins within our long products operations based on higher prices. First quarter steel shipments of 2.8 million tons were 6% above our sequential fourth quarter volume and only 25,000 tons less than our quarterly record set in the first quarter of 2020. Our steel mills operated at 93% of their capability during the quarter, well above the industry average of 77%.
當我們今天早上討論我們的業務時,您會發現我們在 2021 年剩餘時間內繼續看到積極的行業基本面,並且我們對即將到來的獨特盈利催化劑充滿信心。對於鋼鐵業務,我們第一季實現了6.41 億美元的營業收入,是第四季度連續盈利的兩倍多,因為整個第一季度扁鋼銷售價值大幅增加至創紀錄水平,推動了金屬利潤率的擴大。由於價格上漲,我們的長材業務利潤率也有所擴大。第一季鋼材出貨量為280 萬噸,比第四季的連續出貨量高出6%,僅比2020 年第一季創下的季度紀錄少25,000 噸。我們的鋼廠在本季以93 % 的產能開工,遠高於業界平均為77%。
As a reminder, we still have additional market share opportunity based on our existing annual steel shipping capability of over 13 million tons. And when we finish our new Texas steel mill and it's fully online, we'll have over 16 million tons. As domestic steel production increased, scrap demand strengthened in the first quarter, resulting in significantly higher scrap prices and resulting metal spread expansion. Operating income from our metals recycling operations was $54 million, nearly 100% improvement sequentially. The team continues to effectively lever the strength of our vertically connected operating model, benefiting both our steel and metals recycling operations by providing higher-quality scrap, which improves furnace efficiency and by reducing company-wide working capital requirements.
需要提醒的是,基於我們現有超過1300萬噸的年鋼材運輸能力,我們仍然有額外的市場份額機會。當我們德克薩斯州的新鋼廠竣工並完全上線時,我們的產量將超過 1600 萬噸。隨著國內鋼鐵產量增加,第一季廢鋼需求增強,導致廢鋼價格大幅上漲,金屬價差擴大。我們的金屬回收業務的營業收入為 5,400 萬美元,較上季成長近 100%。團隊繼續有效地利用我們垂直連接營運模式的優勢,透過提供更高品質的廢鋼來提高鋼鐵和金屬回收業務,從而提高熔爐效率並減少全公司的營運資金需求。
Despite record first quarter 2021 shipments for our steel fabrication segment, first quarter operating income was $10 million compared to sequential fourth quarter earnings of $25 million. Lower earnings were the result of metal spread compression as higher average selling values were offset by significantly higher steel input costs. As evidenced through our record shipments, record order backlog and extremely strong continued order activity, lower first quarter earnings is not reflective of a weaker demand environment. It is a matter of timing, as higher steel costs are being matched with a 6-month order backlog in which joist and deck prices were lower. This will begin to reverse in the coming months as current steel joist index prices have increased considerably.
儘管我們的鋼鐵製造部門 2021 年第一季的出貨量創下歷史新高,但第一季的營業收入為 1,000 萬美元,而第四季的連續獲利為 2,500 萬美元。獲利下降是金屬價差壓縮的結果,因為平均售價的上升被鋼鐵投入成本的大幅上升所抵消。正如我們創紀錄的出貨量、創紀錄的訂單積壓和極其強勁的持續訂單活動所證明的那樣,第一季收益較低並不反映需求環境疲軟。這是一個時間問題,因為鋼材成本上升,而積壓訂單已長達 6 個月,其中托樑和甲板價格較低。隨著目前鋼托樑指數價格大幅上漲,這種情況將在未來幾個月開始逆轉。
Our cash generation continues to be strong based on our differentiated business model and highly variable cost structure. During the first quarter of 2021, we generated cash flow from operations of $262 million. Operational working capital grew $411 million during the quarter driven by higher customer account and inventory values due to increased pricing and shipments. During the quarter, we also invested $310 million in capital investments, of which $254 million was invested in our new Texas flat-rolled steel mill. For the remainder of 2021, we estimate capital investments will be roughly $650 million to $700 million, with the Texas steel mill representing about $535 million of that amount. This estimate does not include spending for construction of the recently announced 4 flat-rolled steel coating lines. We believe the lines will cost between $400 million and $425 million combined, and we will likely fund between $50 million to $75 million for engineering and down payments late this year. The lines are currently planned to begin operating sometime in the second half of 2022.
基於我們差異化的業務模式和高度變動的成本結構,我們的現金產生能力持續強勁。 2021 年第一季度,我們的營運現金流為 2.62 億美元。由於定價和出貨量增加,客戶帳戶和庫存價值增加,本季營運營運資本成長 4.11 億美元。本季度,我們還投資了 3.1 億美元的資本投資,其中 2.54 億美元投資於我們新的德州扁鋼廠。在 2021 年剩餘時間內,我們預計資本投資約為 6.5 億至 7 億美元,其中德州鋼廠約佔 5.35 億美元。這項估算不包括最近宣布的 4 條扁鋼塗裝線的建設支出。我們認為這些線路的總成本將在 4 億至 4.25 億美元之間,我們可能會在今年稍後為工程和首付提供 5,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元的資金。這些線路目前計劃於 2022 年下半年開始營運。
In February, we also increased our cash dividend 4% to $0.26 per common share based on our ability to consistently generate strong cash. Since 2016, we've increased our cash dividend over 85% and had invested $1.3 billion in our common stock, representing over 15% of our outstanding shares. We have $444 million that remain authorized for share repurchases. These actions reflect the strength of our capital foundation, consistent cash flow generation, strong liquidity profile and the continued optimism and confidence in our future. We're in a position of strength, with liquidity over $2.4 billion at the end of the quarter comprised of cash of $1.2 billion and our fully available unsecured revolver of $1.2 billion. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes responsible strategic growth with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that is complemented with a variable share repurchase program, while also being dedicated to preserving our investment-grade credit rating.
2 月份,基於我們持續產生強勁現金的能力,我們也將現金股利提高了 4%,至每股普通股 0.26 美元。自 2016 年以來,我們的現金股息增加了 85% 以上,並投資了 13 億美元購買普通股,占我們已發行股票的 15% 以上。我們仍有 4.44 億美元的股票回購授權。這些行動反映了我們的資本基礎實力、持續的現金流產生、強勁的流動性狀況以及對未來的持續樂觀和信心。我們處於有利地位,截至本季末,流動性超過 24 億美元,其中包括 12 億美元現金和 12 億美元完全可用的無擔保左輪手槍。我們的資本配置策略優先考慮負責任的策略成長,股東分配包括基本的正股利狀況,並輔以可變股票回購計劃,同時也致力於維持我們的投資等級信用評等。
We're squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable optimized long-term value creation. And we believe sustainability is a part of our long-term value creation, and we're dedicated to our people, our communities and our environment. We're committed to operating our business with the highest integrity and have been since our founding. We produce steel using only electric arc furnace technology with recycled ferrous scrap as the primary raw material. EAF steel production technology currently has the least environmental impact, is the most cost-effective and provides the most operational flexibility. With the addition of our mills, recycling and fabrication platforms, we intentionally developed a vertically connected operating model, creating an almost closed-loop manufacturing business, which both benefits us financially and reduces our environmental impact.
我們已做好充分準備,持續可持續優化的長期價值創造。我們相信永續發展是我們長期價值創造的一部分,我們致力於為我們的人民、我們的社區和我們的環境服務。自成立以來,我們一直致力於以最高的誠信經營我們的業務。我們僅使用電弧爐技術,以回收的廢鐵作為主要原料生產鋼材。電弧爐鋼鐵生產技術目前對環境影響最小,最具成本效益,並提供最大的操作彈性。透過增加工廠、回收和製造平台,我們有意開發了垂直連接的營運模式,創建了幾乎閉環的製造業務,這不僅為我們帶來了經濟利益,也減少了對環境的影響。
In 2020, we shared our qualitative climate-related goals and our most recent sustainability report. This summer, we also plan to adopt quantitative goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, participate in greater renewable energy use and continue to invest in energy efficiency opportunities. We're currently in the process of assessing the use of renewable energy alternatives at our steel mills. Our sustainability and environmental impact strategy is an ongoing journey, and we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference. We plan to continue to address these matters and to play a leadership role in developing innovative ways to reduce our impact on the environment. For those of you that use our detailed shipments for the flat-rolled products for your models, in the first quarter of 2021, we had hot-rolled P&O shipments of 774,000 tons, cold-rolled of 149,000 tons and coated of 996,000 tons.
2020 年,我們分享了與氣候相關的定性目標和最新的永續發展報告。今年夏天,我們還計劃採取量化目標來減少溫室氣體排放,參與更多再生能源的使用,並繼續投資能源效率機會。我們目前正在評估鋼廠再生能源替代品的使用情況。我們的永續發展和環境影響策略是一個持續的旅程,我們正在不斷前進,旨在做出積極的改變。我們計劃繼續解決這些問題,並在開發創新方法以減少對環境的影響方面發揮領導作用。對於使用我們的平板軋材出貨量詳細資料的人來說,2021 年第一季度,我們的熱軋 P&O 出貨量為 774,000 噸,冷軋為 149,000 噸,塗層為 996,000 噸。
And on a personal note, I just want to continue to thank the teams for operating safely and for taking care of one another from a health perspective as well. Mark?
就我個人而言,我只想繼續感謝各團隊的安全運作以及從健康角度互相照顧。標記?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Yes. Thank you, Theresa. Taking our operating platforms in turn, the steel fabrication platform delivered a strong performance, achieving record quarterly shipments while navigating rapidly escalating steel input costs. Higher steel costs compressed first quarter steel fabrication earnings due to our matching 6-month order backlog to more current steel prices. However, based on the strength of steel joist and deck and demand, we are currently placing orders at record prices. Our order activity is extremely strong. We ended March with a record fabrication order backlog that is over 50% higher than our previous peak.
是的。謝謝你,特蕾莎。反過來看我們的營運平台,鋼鐵製造平台表現強勁,實現了創紀錄的季度出貨量,同時應對迅速上升的鋼鐵投入成本。由於我們 6 個月的積壓訂單與當前鋼材價格相匹配,較高的鋼材成本壓縮了第一季的鋼鐵製造收益。然而,基於鋼托樑和甲板的強度以及需求,我們目前正在以創紀錄的價格下訂單。我們的訂單活動非常強勁。 3 月底,我們的製造訂單積壓量創歷史新高,比之前的峰值高出 50% 以上。
The nonresidential construction market remains strong, especially in areas that support online retail, computing activities and health care, specifically represented by construction of large distribution and warehouse facilities. Due in large part to changes in consumer behavior, we believe this dynamic will continue for the next several years. We already have steel fabrication facilities located throughout the U.S. and in Mexico, providing us with an advantaged broad-based customer supply chain. In order to serve increased customer demand, we will be expanding our production capability. For us, it's not necessary to add physical assets. We simply will be providing jobs to additional team members to support increased operating hours, thereby further improving asset utilization. These new crews will be trained and become active between now and late summer '21, increasing our annual production capability by as much as 25% to 30% or over 100,000 tons.
非住宅建築市場仍然強勁,特別是在支援線上零售、計算活動和醫療保健的領域,特別是大型配送和倉庫設施的建設。在很大程度上由於消費者行為的變化,我們相信這種動態將在未來幾年持續下去。我們已經在美國和墨西哥各地擁有鋼鐵製造設施,為我們提供了優勢廣泛的客戶供應鏈。為了滿足不斷增長的客戶需求,我們將擴大生產能力。對我們來說,沒有必要增加實體資產。我們只是為更多的團隊成員提供工作崗位,以支持增加的營運時間,從而進一步提高資產利用率。這些新員工將從現在到 21 年夏末接受培訓並投入工作,將我們的年產能提高 25% 至 30% 或超過 10 萬噸。
Our metals recycling operations had an extremely strong quarter with quarterly operating income of $54 million, nearly doubling sequential fourth quarter earnings and over 5x higher than prior year first quarter earnings. Strong ferrous demand and increased pricing related to higher domestic steel production drove strong performance. Prime scrap index pricing increased over $170 per gross ton during the first quarter. Prime scrap generation is strong based on North American manufacturing. We expect North American scrap generation to outpace increased demand from steelmaking in 2021. Obsolete scrap generation has also been strong, post the extreme February weather conditions. Based on continued solid scrap generation, we believe scrap pricing will remain somewhat steady during the rest of the year.
我們的金屬回收業務季度業績極為強勁,季度營業收入為 5,400 萬美元,第四季度收益幾乎翻了一番,比去年第一季收益高出 5 倍多。強勁的黑色金屬需求以及與國內鋼鐵產量增加相關的定價上漲推動了強勁的業績。第一季優質廢鋼指數定價上漲超過每總噸 170 美元。主要廢鋼發電量以北美製造業為基礎。我們預計 2021 年北美廢鋼產量將超過煉鋼需求的成長。在 2 月極端天氣條件之後,廢鋼產量也很強勁。基於廢鋼產量的持續穩定,我們認為廢鋼價格在今年剩餘時間內將保持一定穩定。
As Theresa mentioned, the steel team had an outstanding quarter, achieving numerous operating and financial records. We achieved near-record shipments, just 1% less than our first quarter 2020 record and up 6% sequentially. We achieved record quarterly operating income of $641 million, over 10% higher than our previous peak. So many contributed to these incredible achievements, including our commercial teams, our other operating platforms, suppliers and especially our loyal customers. While the domestic steel industry operated at an increased utilization rate of 77% during the first quarter, the strength of our differentiated business model, combined with the passion of our people, drove our steel production utilization to 93%.
正如特蕾莎所提到的,鋼鐵團隊度過了一個出色的季度,取得了多項營運和財務記錄。我們的出貨量接近歷史最高紀錄,僅比 2020 年第一季的紀錄低 1%,但比上一季成長 6%。我們實現了創紀錄的季度營業收入 6.41 億美元,比之前的峰值高出 10% 以上。這些令人難以置信的成就有許多人做出了貢獻,包括我們的商業團隊、我們的其他營運平台、供應商,尤其是我們的忠實客戶。雖然國內鋼鐵業第一季的利用率提高到了77%,但我們差異化業務模式的優勢,加上員工的熱情,使我們的鋼鐵生產利用率達到了93%。
Steel demand is strong across the steel platform, including both flat and long steel products. However, the flat-rolled steel markets remain especially tight. Underlying demand for flat-rolled steel products recovered much more quickly than expected in the second half of last year and gained further momentum in this recent first quarter. When coupled with historically low customer inventory levels across the supply chain, flat-rolled steel prices have been supported at historically high levels. And customers are placing orders for immediate demand requirements. They have not rebuilt inventories since the speculative risk associated with the accumulation of higher-priced inventory is a significant deterrent, even if it was available. Additionally, we believe current legislative steel trade policies will continue to moderate steel imports. The current U.S. administration has also commented constructively concerning trade parameters and the issues with China.
整個鋼鐵平台的鋼鐵需求強勁,包括板材和長材產品。然而,扁鋼市場仍然特別緊張。去年下半年,扁鋼產品的基礎需求恢復速度遠快於預期,並在最近的第一季獲得了進一步的成長動力。再加上整個供應鏈的客戶庫存水準處於歷史低位,扁鋼價格一直支撐在歷史高點。客戶正在根據即時需求下訂單。他們沒有重建庫存,因為與高價庫存累積相關的投機風險是一個重大的威懾因素,即使有可用的庫存。此外,我們認為目前的鋼鐵貿易立法政策將繼續抑制鋼鐵進口。現任美國政府也就貿易參數和與中國的問題發表了建設性評論。
From an end-market perspective, the automotive sector has experienced the strongest recovery, operating at very high production levels due to low inventories, coupled with strong consumer demand. March's seasonally adjusted production represented almost 18 million units and inventories were close to 30% below the 5-year average. We've been fortunate that our automotive order book has not seen any significant impact from the current electronic chip shortage.
從終端市場的角度來看,汽車產業經歷了最強勁的復甦,由於庫存低以及強勁的消費者需求,生產水準非常高。 3 月經季節調整後的產量接近 1,800 萬台,庫存比 5 年平均值低近 30%。我們很幸運,我們的汽車訂單沒有受到當前電子晶片短缺的任何重大影響。
The nonresidential construction sector remains strong with continued positive momentum, as evidenced by record Structural and Rail Division shipments, record steel fabrication shipments and strong customer backlogs. We expect this strength to continue through the rest of this year and certainly into next year. Residential construction has also been strong, producing high demand for related HVAC and appliance products. In addition to supporting high nonresidential construction demand, the growing online retail shift is supporting steel demand strength throughout the supply chain service providers, such as truck trailer and material handling.
非住宅建築業依然強勁,並持續保持積極勢頭,創紀錄的結構和鐵路部門出貨量、創紀錄的鋼結構出貨量和強勁的客戶積壓就證明了這一點。我們預計這種勢頭將持續到今年剩餘時間,當然也會持續到明年。住宅建設也很強勁,對相關暖通空調和家電產品產生了很高的需求。除了支持非住宅建築的高需求外,不斷增長的線上零售轉變也支持了整個供應鏈服務提供者(例如卡車拖車和物料搬運)的鋼鐵需求強度。
We're also seeing healthy demand from mining and yellow goods customers at our Engineered Bar Products Division. In the energy sector, solar is a substantially growing market and we're also seeing some indications of improved oil and gas activity. We continue our successful track record of margin-enhancing differentiated growth. We have executed numerous strategic investments across the company in the last several years, and we continue to position Steel Dynamics for the future.
我們的工程酒吧產品部門也看到採礦和黃色商品客戶的健康需求。在能源領域,太陽能是一個大幅成長的市場,我們也看到了一些石油和天然氣活動改善的跡象。我們繼續保持提高利潤的差異化成長的成功記錄。過去幾年,我們在整個公司範圍內進行了大量策略性投資,並將繼續為 Steel Dynamics 的未來定位。
Our teams and our customers are extremely excited about our Sinton, Texas electric arc furnace flat-rolled steel mill investment. It represents a transformational step-function increase in Steel Dynamics' through-cycle cash flow generation capability. It provides next-generation electric arc furnace steel production capabilities, new products and new customers. The facility is designed to have product capabilities beyond that of existing electric arc furnace flat-rolled steel producers, competing even more effectively with a higher carbon-emitting integrated steel model and foreign competition. It provides us with a broader steel portfolio and provides our customers with an even larger climate-conscious supply option.
我們的團隊和客戶對我們在德州辛頓電弧爐扁鋼廠的投資感到非常興奮。它代表了 Steel Dynamics 整個週期現金流產生能力的變革性階躍函數成長。它提供新一代電弧爐煉鋼生產能力、新產品和新客戶。該廠的設計目標是擁有超越現有電弧爐扁鋼生產商的產品能力,與碳排放更高的綜合鋼鐵模型和外國競爭對手進行更有效的競爭。它為我們提供了更廣泛的鋼鐵產品組合,並為我們的客戶提供了更廣泛的氣候意識供應選擇。
The team's momentum is unbelievable and to be admired. We have an incredible depth of experience in the construction, start-up and operation of large steel manufacturing assets. Collectively, we likely have more relevant experience than any other company in the industry. And construction is going extremely well. The new 3-million-ton state-of-the-art flat-rolled steel mill will include 2 value-added coating lines comprised of a 550,000-ton galvanizing line with Galvalume capability and a 250,000-ton paint line. We plan for these 2 value-added coating lines to begin operating by the end of the second quarter '21, using flat-roll substrate ahead of full operations.
這支球隊的勢頭令人難以置信,令人欽佩。我們在大型鋼鐵製造資產的建設、啟動和營運方面擁有豐富的經驗。總的來說,我們可能比業內任何其他公司擁有更多的相關經驗。施工進度非常順利。新的 300 萬噸最先進的扁鋼廠將包括 2 條增值塗裝生產線,包括一條 55 萬噸鍍鋅生產線和一條 25 萬噸塗裝生產線。我們計劃這兩條增值塗裝線在 21 年第二季末開始運營,在全面運營之前使用平卷基材。
Our Sinton electric arc furnace steel mill is adhering to the same stringent sustainability model as our other steelmaking facilities, utilizing state-of-the-art environmental controls and processes to produce high-quality, sustainable, lower-carbon steel. Our steel mills have a fraction of the greenhouse gas emission and energy intensity of average traditional steelmaking technology. The town of Sinton provides a strategic location near Corpus Christi. We have 3 targeted regional commercial markets for our new steel mill, which represents over 27 million tons of relevant flat-rolled steel consumption, in the Southern and Western United States and Mexico. We also plan to effectively compete with steel imports.
我們的 Sinton 電弧爐鋼廠與我們的其他煉鋼廠一樣遵循同樣嚴格的可持續發展模式,利用最先進的環境控制和工藝來生產高品質、可持續的低碳鋼。我們的鋼廠的溫室氣體排放量和能源強度僅為傳統煉鋼技術平均值的一小部分。辛頓鎮位於科珀斯克里斯蒂附近,地理位置優越。我們的新鋼廠有 3 個目標區域商業市場,這些市場代表了美國南部和西部以及墨西哥超過 2700 萬噸的相關扁鋼消費量。我們也計劃與進口鋼材進行有效競爭。
Our customers are excited to have a regional flat-roll steel supplier. We have 4 customers committed to locate on-site, representing over 1.3 million tons of annual processing and consumption capability. We're still speaking with several other potential on-site customers as well as those that are building facilities off-site yet near our campus. Our location provides a significant freight benefit to most of our intended flat-roll customers. Compared to their current domestic supply options, we believe the potential customer savings would be at least $20 to $30 per ton, and some would be much higher. Coupled with much shorter lead times, we can provide a superior customer supply chain solution. It also allows us to effectively compete with imports, which inherently, have long lead times and speculative price risk.
我們的客戶很高興能擁有一家區域性扁鋼供應商。我們有4家客戶承諾入駐現場,代表超過130萬噸的年加工和消費能力。我們仍在與其他幾個潛在的現場客戶以及那些在我們園區附近的場外建設設施的客戶進行交談。我們的地理位置為我們大多數目標平捲客戶提供了顯著的貨運優勢。與他們目前的國內供應方案相比,我們相信潛在客戶每噸可節省至少 20 至 30 美元,有些甚至更高。再加上更短的交貨時間,我們可以提供卓越的客戶供應鏈解決方案。它還使我們能夠有效地與進口產品競爭,因為進口產品本質上具有較長的交貨時間和投機價格風險。
We have also made considerable progress concerning our raw material procurement strategy. We completed the acquisition of a Mexican scrap company last August, which was a critical step for us. The acquisition complements our current metals recycling business in both the U.S. and Mexico. The operations are strategically located near high-volume industrial scrap sources throughout Central and Northern Mexico. They have an estimated annual scrap processing capability of almost 2 million gross tons. We also acquired 3 small scrap locations in the Houston and Corpus Christi area to help serve Sinton's raw material needs.
我們在原物料採購策略方面也取得了長足進展。去年8月,我們完成了對墨西哥廢鋼公司的收購,這對我們來說是關鍵的一步。此次收購補充了我們目前在美國和墨西哥的金屬回收業務。這些業務策略性地位於墨西哥中部和北部的大量工業廢料來源附近。據估計,他們的年廢鋼加工能力接近 200 萬噸。我們還在休士頓和科珀斯克里斯蒂地區收購了 3 個小型廢品回收站,以協助滿足 Sinton 的原料需求。
Our performance-based operating culture, coupled with our considerable experience in successfully constructing and operating highly profitable steel assets, positions us incredibly well to successfully execute this transformational growth. As we've said before, we are not simply adding flat-rolled steel production capacity. We have a differentiated product offering, a unique regional supply chain solution, a significant geographic freight and lead time advantage and offer an import sustainable alternative to a region in need of options.
我們以績效為基礎的營運文化,加上我們在成功建立和營運高利潤鋼鐵資產方面的豐富經驗,使我們能夠成功地實現這一轉型成長。正如我們之前所說,我們並不是單純地增加扁鋼產能。我們擁有差異化的產品、獨特的區域供應鏈解決方案、顯著的地理貨運和交貨時間優勢,並為需要選擇的地區提供進口永續替代方案。
We've also recently announced plans to add 4 additional value-added flat-rolled coating lines, comprised of 2 new paint lines and 2 new galvanizing lines with Galvalume-coating capability. Galvalume products represent the fastest-growing flat-rolled steel market in the United States, primarily serving the metal building industry. This market has historically sourced as much as 45% of their needs from foreign imports.
我們最近還宣布計劃增加 4 條附加值平軋塗裝線,其中包括 2 條新塗裝線和 2 條具有鍍鋁鋅塗層能力的新鍍鋅線。鍍鋁鋅產品代表了美國成長最快的扁鋼市場,主要服務於金屬建築業。歷史上,該市場 45% 的需求來自國外進口。
Our preferred cost-effective supply chain has resulted in our existing lines consistently running at full capacity through both increased consumption and market share gain. Two of these lines will be located in the Southern U.S. region to be comprised of a new paint line and a galvanizing/Galvalume line, with a combined annual coating capacity of 540,000 tons, requiring an estimated investment of $225 million. These lines will provide Sinton with similar diversification and higher-margin product capabilities as our Butler and Columbus Flat Roll steel divisions.
我們首選的具有成本效益的供應鏈使我們現有的生產線透過增加消耗和增加市場份額而始終滿載運作。其中兩條生產線將位於美國南部地區,由一條新塗裝生產線和一條鍍鋅/鍍鋁鋅生產線組成,年塗裝總產能為 54 萬噸,預計投資 2.25 億美元。這些生產線將為 Sinton 提供與 Butler 和 Columbus Flat Roll 鋼鐵部門類似的多元化和更高利潤的產品能力。
The remaining 2 lines will be located in the Midwest and will also be comprised of a paint line and a galvanizing line with Galvalume capability, with a combined annual coating capacity of 540,000 tons, and will require an investment of between $175 million and $200 million. These lines will support our regional flat roll steel operations, providing them with more value-added product diversification to serve our customer needs. We currently believe these lines will begin operating in the second half of '22. Our strategy consistently places value-added products and supply chain differentiation at the fore and has benefited us well both through good and poor markets.
其餘兩條生產線將位於中西部,包括一條塗裝生產線和一條具有鍍鋁鋅能力的鍍鋅生產線,年塗裝總產能為 54 萬噸,需要投資 1.75 億至 2 億美元。這些生產線將支援我們的區域扁鋼業務,為他們提供更多加值產品多樣化,以滿足我們客戶的需求。我們目前認為這些線路將於 22 年下半年開始營運。我們的策略始終將增值產品和供應鏈差異化放在首位,無論市場好壞,我們都受益匪淺。
In closing, our culture and the execution of our long-term strategy continues to strengthen our financial position through consistent strong cash flow generation and long-term value creation, clearly demonstrating our sustainability and differentiating us from our competition. Our amazing teams provide the foundation for our success. I thank each of them for their passion and dedication to each other and our other stakeholders. To each of you, please remember that your health and safety is always the most important issue at hand. I thank you for all you do, your spirit of excellence drives us to success.
最後,我們的文化和長期策略的執行透過持續強勁的現金流生成和長期價值創造繼續加強我們的財務狀況,清楚地展示了我們的可持續性並使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。我們出色的團隊為我們的成功奠定了基礎。我感謝他們每個人對彼此以及我們其他利害關係人的熱情和奉獻。對於你們每個人,請記住,你們的健康和安全始終是當前最重要的問題。我感謝你們所做的一切,你們的卓越精神推動我們走向成功。
With that said, Daryl, would you please open the floor for questions?
話雖如此,達裡爾,請您開始提問好嗎?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Sathish Kasinathan of Deutsche Bank.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sathish Kasinathan。
Sathish Kasinathan - Research Analyst
Sathish Kasinathan - Research Analyst
So my question is on the flat-rolled steel pricing. In the past, you have indicated that the flat-rolled steel pricing typically lags by 2 months based on your mix of spot or index-based contracts. Given the external lead times, delivery delays and maybe changes to the contract mix, what would the lag be in terms of today's market?
我的問題是關於扁鋼的定價。過去,您曾表示,根據您的現貨或指數合約組合,扁鋼定價通常落後 2 個月。考慮到外部交貨時間、交貨延遲以及合約組合的可能變化,就當今市場而言,滯後是什麼?
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
That's a great question, Sathish. So in the first quarter, generally, we're somewhere between probably 55% to 60% contract business in any given quarter related to just our flat roll operations. But because of the way the contracts have minimum and maximum volumes, in the first quarter, we actually had probably a little over 70% of our mix was contract-related. So it was more than we typically would have. However, going into the second quarter, you're likely to see that moderate back to a 60% to 65%. And so we think it will get closer to what we normally see. And the lag is generally around 2 months.
這是一個很好的問題,薩蒂什。因此,一般來說,在第一季度,我們在任何特定季度的合約業務中大約有 55% 到 60% 與我們的平卷業務相關。但由於合約有最小和最大交易量,在第一季度,我們實際上可能有超過 70% 的組合與合約相關。所以這比我們通常擁有的要多。然而,進入第二季度,您可能會看到這一比例溫和回升至 60% 至 65%。所以我們認為它會更接近我們通常看到的情況。而且滯後期一般在2個月左右。
Sathish Kasinathan - Research Analyst
Sathish Kasinathan - Research Analyst
Okay. Sorry, just one follow-up question, if I may. At Sinton, do you have like a target baseload for the mill? And in terms of ongoing discussions with other customers, could you be able to quantify what the potential incremental volumes could be compared to the 1.3 million tons already committed?
好的。抱歉,如果可以的話,我只想問一個後續問題。在 Sinton,您有工廠的目標基本負載嗎?就與其他客戶正在進行的討論而言,您能否量化與已承諾的 130 萬噸相比,潛在的增量數量?
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
We had -- of the customers that have committed to be on-site, there's 4 in place today that represent just over 1.3 million tons. We're currently having discussions with at least 2 others. Mark, I don't know if you want to comment on the additional volume that may come with that or not.
我們承諾在現場的客戶中,今天有 4 個已就位,代表著剛超過 130 萬噸。我們目前正在與至少另外 2 個人進行討論。馬克,我不知道你是否想對可能附帶的附加卷發表評論。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, we would anticipate, I think, at the end of the day, with 7 customers on-site. It's been absolutely incredible, the excitement that we've seen. And we've been very, very intentional as to the type of customers, such that we have a broad spectrum of processing capability. So light gauge processing capability, heavy-gauge hot band, automotive and also pipe consumers and other fabricators. So I would imagine at the end of the day, again, that 1.3 million tons will grow. Again, that's not all consumption. A lot of it is processing capability. But it should end up being at perhaps 1.4 million tons by the time we're done.
嗯,我想,我們預計到一天結束時,現場會有 7 位客戶。我們所看到的這絕對是令人難以置信的興奮。我們對客戶類型非常非常重視,因此我們擁有廣泛的處理能力。因此,輕型規格加工能力、重型熱軋帶材、汽車以及管道消費者和其他製造商。所以我想,最終,產量將再次增加 130 萬噸。再說一次,這並不是消費的全部。其中很大一部分是處理能力。但當我們完成時,最終的產量可能會達到 140 萬噸。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
And just to add to that, Sathish, we actually had several customers that were not able to locate with us on-site because of area constraints, et cetera, but there are those that are moving contingent or contiguous to the site. So there is a lot of excitement among the customer group.
補充一點,Sathish,我們實際上有幾個客戶由於區域限制等原因無法在現場找到我們,但也有一些客戶正在臨時或鄰近地移動到該站點。因此,客戶群中充滿了興奮。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Seth Rosenfeld with Exane BNP Paribas.
我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Seth Rosenfeld。
Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst
Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst
I guess a follow-up, please, with regards to Sinton. Can you please provide any update or more details on the ramp-up schedule for the facility and when exactly you would expect to reach full utilization of 3 million tons? I think last quarter, you noted downstream lines began to ramp in late Q2, up from early Q3. Any update on those figures, please?
我想請跟進一下辛頓的情況。您能否提供有關該設施的產能提升計劃的任何更新或更多詳細信息,以及您預計何時達到 300 萬噸的充分利用?我想上個季度,您注意到下游生產線在第二季末開始增加,高於第三季初。請問這些數字有更新嗎?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Certainly. I think that the downstream lines, as we've said in the past, will come up before the hot side. But the paint line, the galv line and pickle line, we believe will stop commissioning in June with some limited shipments beginning in July. I think generally, volumes will be a little constrained through those 3 lines due to the strong SDI backlog right now and a limited availability of third-party volume. It was our anticipation some time ago that we would be transferring tons down there. But again, it's a good and a bad situation. Our mills are absolutely jampacked with orders. And again, it's tough to get third-party supply. But those will be commissioned on time, and we'll start to see incremental shipments in the third and fourth quarter.
當然。我認為,正如我們過去所說,下游線路將在熱端之前出現。但我們認為,油漆生產線、鍍鋅生產線和酸洗生產線將在 6 月停止調試,並從 7 月開始進行一些有限的發貨。我認為,總體而言,由於目前 SDI 積壓較多且第三方數量有限,這 3 條生產線的數量將受到一些限制。我們不久前就預計我們會在那裡轉運大量貨物。但話又說回來,這是一個好的情況,也是一個壞的情況。我們的工廠絕對擠滿了訂單。同樣,獲得第三方供應也很困難。但這些將按時投入使用,我們將在第三和第四季開始看到出貨量的增量。
The hot strip mill obviously is of prime importance to get that up and running. That will be commissioned in September, and I would expect the shipments to commence in Q4. And one has to recognize that as we start the mill up, we'll be also having to build work-in-process inventory. So not every ton produced will be shipped. But I would imagine volume to be around 150,000 to 200,000 tons for the fourth quarter. For 2022, the expectation is still to ship around about 80% of eventual capability, so somewhere between 2.2 million to 2.4 million tons.
熱帶鋼軋機顯然對於其啟動和運作至關重要。該項目將於 9 月投入使用,我預計發貨將在第四季度開始。人們必須認識到,當我們啟動工廠時,我們也必須建立在製品庫存。因此,並非生產的每一噸都會被運輸。但我預計第四季的產量約為 15 萬噸至 20 萬噸。到 2022 年,預計出貨量仍將達到最終產能的 80% 左右,即 220 萬噸至 240 萬噸之間。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
And Seth, from a full utilization, as we run Columbus and Butler basically at full or over-full capacity, we don't see any reason why Sinton couldn't achieve that in the 2023 time frame.
塞思,從充分利用率來看,當我們基本上以滿載或超滿負荷運行哥倫布和巴特勒時,我們看不出有任何理由辛頓無法在 2023 年的時間範圍內實現這一目標。
Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst
Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst
Just a follow-up with regard to the 2022 guidance. Is the view that you'd be at the 80% run rate on an annualized basis by the end of '22? Or calendar '22, you expect that 2.2 million to 2.4 million tons out the door?
只是 2022 年指引的後續行動。您是否認為到 22 年底您的年化運行率將達到 80%?或日曆 '22,您預計 220 萬噸到 240 萬噸?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
No, we would expect 2.2 million to 2.4 million tons of actual shipments.
不,我們預計實際出貨量為 220 萬噸至 240 萬噸。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。
Emily Christine Chieng - Associate
Emily Christine Chieng - Associate
My first question is just around sort of the capital allocation strategy. As you have the start-up of Sinton quickly approaching and coupled with what looks like a phenomenal year for steel prices, how should we be thinking about longer-term capital allocation policy? Should we be expecting more growth spend above and beyond the coating line investments that you've recently announced? Or will there be maybe a more meaningful pivot to shareholder returns?
我的第一個問題是關於資本配置策略的。隨著新東公司的新創期很快臨近,再加上鋼鐵價格看似非凡的一年,我們該如何考慮長期資本配置政策?我們是否應該期望在您最近宣布的塗裝線投資之外有更多的成長支出?還是會出現更有意義的股東回報轉向?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, I think generally, our cash allocation strategy has been pretty consistent over time and will continue to be so. We'll still be focused on retaining a conservative perspective regarding balance sheet structure and liquidity to fully support our investment-grade profile. Our through-cycle cash generation capability will remain strong and obviously, with Sinton and with the additional projects, will increase dramatically. And I think the exciting thing, as you point out, we're going to have a lot of cash to allocate. We'll continue growth. We've announced our 4 new lines, again, a little sort of ahead of our own sort of time frame to help diversify that mill dramatically along the lines of Butler and Columbus. But there will be significant cash remaining after that growth.
嗯,我認為總的來說,我們的現金分配策略隨著時間的推移一直非常一致,並將繼續如此。我們仍將專注於對資產負債表結構和流動性保持保守觀點,以充分支持我們的投資等級概況。我們的整個週期現金產生能力將保持強勁,顯然,透過 Sinton 和其他項目,我們的現金生成能力將大幅增強。我認為令人興奮的是,正如您所指出的,我們將有大量現金可供分配。我們將繼續成長。我們再次宣布了 4 條新生產線,比我們自己的時間框架提前了一點,以幫助工廠沿著巴特勒和哥倫布的路線大幅多元化。但成長後仍將留下大量現金。
We'll continue to have a positive dividend profile, cash dividend profile. And as you've seen in the past, when we have a step-function increase in through-cycle cash generation capability, we do quite a meaningful bump. So I would expect that to happen in the future and next year. And obviously, to supplement that shareholder return, we'll continue to look at share buybacks.
我們將繼續保持積極的股息狀況和現金股息狀況。正如您過去所看到的,當我們在整個週期的現金產生能力上實現階梯式成長時,我們會實現相當有意義的提升。所以我預計這會在未來和明年發生。顯然,為了補充股東回報,我們將繼續考慮股票回購。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
I would just add, so there are transactional opportunities as well. And so we are a growth company. And so there is the organic side, which I think Sinton represents the largest project that we've had. But as you think about transaction opportunities, whether it's in manufacturing businesses that utilize our steel as a raw material input or whether it even be steel production assets perhaps, that's something definitely we can differentiate the business and improve the business and add a lot of value. We're still very interested in things like that as well.
我想補充一點,所以也存在交易機會。所以我們是一家成長型公司。所以還有有機方面,我認為 Sinton 代表了我們擁有的最大的項目。但當你考慮交易機會時,無論是在利用我們的鋼鐵作為原材料投入的製造業務中,還是在鋼鐵生產資產中,這絕對是我們可以使業務脫穎而出、改善業務並增加大量價值的東西。 。我們仍然對類似的事情非常感興趣。
Emily Christine Chieng - Associate
Emily Christine Chieng - Associate
That's very helpful. And if I can squeeze in a quick follow-up. Just on the infrastructure plan that's being floated right now. Any sort of early thoughts on what that could mean for steel demand longer term and your views as to whether or not there's sufficient capacity to meet this longer term?
這非常有幫助。如果我能抽出時間進行快速跟進。就目前正在討論的基礎設施計劃而言。關於這對長期鋼鐵需求意味著什麼,您有什麼早期想法嗎?您對是否有足夠的能力滿足這一長期需求有何看法?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, it's difficult to tell exactly what that sort of incremental volume is. You see 3 million, 4 million tons being bantered around. I can't say that we've fully analyzed that. But obviously, there will be improved demand. There's obviously a major sort of clean energy aspect to it. And so solar, I think, will help steel consumption, help demand. And certainly, our activities at Steel of West Virginia are already benefiting from that. I think beyond the actual sort of steel consumption perspective, just the overall economic benefit from that and from other stimuli, the economy is going great guns today, and it's just going to keep it going. So it's an exciting time.
好吧,很難確切地說出這種增量是多少。你看到300萬噸、400萬噸在被人開玩笑。我不能說我們已經充分分析了這一點。但顯然,需求將會改善。顯然,其中有一個主要的清潔能源方面。因此,我認為太陽能將有助於鋼鐵消費,有助於需求。當然,我們在西維吉尼亞鋼鐵公司的活動已經從中受益。我認為,除了鋼鐵消費的實際情況之外,僅從鋼鐵消費和其他刺激措施帶來的整體經濟利益來看,今天的經濟正在蓬勃發展,而且只會繼續下去。所以這是一個令人興奮的時刻。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場部的 David Gagliano。
David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst
David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst
Okay. Great. I just was wondering if you could switch gears to kind of current market conditions and looking ahead a bit here. Obviously, we've got this extremely tight market, record-high prices, lead times still extended. And we've seen a lot of the, I think, low-hanging fruit on the capacity side now restarted and everything is still very tight. So typically, one of the ways you solve for this is imports. And I'm wondering if you could just comment on why this time should be different with regards to import flows being somewhat constrained given that we're at record-high regional premiums. I think there's very good reasons for it. I was just wondering if you could share your thoughts.
好的。偉大的。我只是想知道您是否可以根據當前的市場狀況進行調整併展望未來。顯然,我們的市場極度緊張,價格創歷史新高,交貨時間仍然延長。我認為,我們已經看到產能方面許多容易實現的目標現在已經重新啟動,但一切仍然非常緊張。因此,通常解決這個問題的方法之一就是導入。我想知道您是否可以評論為什麼這次應該有所不同,因為我們處於創紀錄的區域溢價,進口流量受到一定程度的限制。我認為這是有充分理由的。我只是想知道你是否可以分享你的想法。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, again, from our perspective, and there are those -- I saw some commentary sort of questioning demand. Demand out there is absolutely phenomenal across almost every sector. Very, very strong, and it would appear to be there for the rest of this year going into next. As you mentioned, most of the -- if not all, the reasonable production capability in the U.S. has returned. I think any further additions will be limited. There are sort of additions coming in later this year. Ours will start shipments in the fourth quarter, as I said, but nothing major on the plus side. And it's going to be offset, in all honesty, if you look at the maintenance outages in the integrated industry and some shutdowns on the mini-mill side of things, supply side will absolutely remain tight. So it's a great balance, will support the market.
好吧,再說一遍,從我們的角度來看,我看到了一些評論性的質疑需求。幾乎每個領域的需求絕對是驚人的。非常非常強勁,而且這種勢頭似乎會持續到今年剩餘時間到明年。正如你所提到的,美國的大部分——如果不是全部——合理的生產能力已經恢復。我認為任何進一步的補充都會受到限制。今年晚些時候會有一些補充。正如我所說,我們的產品將於第四季開始出貨,但沒有什麼重大的好處。老實說,如果你看看綜合產業的維護中斷和小型鋼廠的一些停工,供應方面絕對會保持緊張,這將被抵消。所以這是一個很好的平衡,將支持市場。
The issue in the past has been import increases. And I don't think you see -- you're going to see material increase. It is picking up. There's no doubt about that. But you've got a world -- a world economy. Europe is strong, China is strong, most markets are in great shape. And so the import availability today is not there. You may get -- the arbitrage has become more attractive, perhaps on the surface, but the availability and the lead times are stretched out. And very few people are going to want to take that speculative risk, buying whatever, $1,400 a day, just taking that risk for that to tumble later in the year. We don't see that though. So we see strong demand, tight supply, record-low supply chain inventories across the space.
過去的問題是進口增加。我認為你不會看到實質的成長。它正在回升。毫無疑問。但你有一個世界——一個世界經濟。歐洲強大,中國強大,大多數市場狀況良好。因此,目前不存在進口供應。您可能會發現——套利變得更具吸引力,也許表面上如此,但可用性和交貨時間都被拉長了。很少有人願意冒這種投機風險,每天購買 1,400 美元的任何東西,只是冒著今年晚些時候價格暴跌的風險。但我們沒有看到這一點。因此,我們看到整個領域需求強勁,供應緊張,供應鏈庫存創歷史新低。
And I think imports, moderate levels of imports that will continue to be supported by the administration actually. I think the commentary relative to trade is very, very positive. They recognize that we've been at a kind of a financial war with China for a long time, and they recognize the issues there. And I don't think that the 232 tariffs will be unwound in totality. They may take a slightly different shape, but trade constraint will remain in the years ahead.
我認為進口,適度的進口實際上將繼續得到政府的支持。我認為有關貿易的評論非常非常正面。他們認識到我們與中國的金融戰爭已經持續了很長一段時間,他們也認識到那裡存在的問題。我不認為232項關稅會全部取消。它們的形式可能略有不同,但貿易限制在未來幾年仍將存在。
So I think it's a remarkable, remarkable environment that we're in today. And I think it's just wherever you look. Anecdotally, housing, there are no houses to be bought today. You saw a pickup in the residential markets in March, and that will continue, and that's playing strength in HVAC and appliance. If you go try and buy a refrigerator today or washing machine, you're probably going to have to wait 4 or 5 months for one that you actually want. So just everywhere you look in the supply chain, things have been stretched out and will kind of prolong these cycles. So we're incredibly bullish. I mean it's -- we had a phenomenal first quarter. I think the second quarter is going to be multiples of phenomenal, and it's going to be a great year.
所以我認為我們今天所處的環境非常非常出色。我認為無論你往哪裡看,它都是如此。據說,住房方面,今天沒有房子可買。三月住宅市場出現回升,這種情況將持續下去,這在暖通空調和家電領域發揮作用。如果您今天嘗試購買一台冰箱或洗衣機,您可能需要等待 4 或 5 個月才能買到您真正想要的一台。因此,無論你在供應鏈中看到什麼,事情都被拉長了,並且會延長這些週期。所以我們非常樂觀。我的意思是——我們的第一季表現非常出色。我認為第二季將是驚人的幾倍,這將是偉大的一年。
David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst
David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst
All right. That's helpful. If I could just squeeze one more in as well. Just switching back to what Theresa said earlier about use of cash down the road, transactional opportunities. I think you mentioned manufacturing business and/or steel production assets. I'm not going to put you on the spot on assets or anything like that. Just the question I'm really wondering is you didn't mention organic steel production. So is it reasonable to assume that organic steel production, incremental organic steel production is off the table for now?
好的。這很有幫助。如果我能再擠一個進去就好了。回到特蕾莎早些時候所說的關於未來使用現金、交易機會的話題。我認為您提到了製造業務和/或鋼鐵生產資產。我不會讓你因為資產或類似的事情而陷入困境。我真正想知道的問題是你沒有提到有機鋼生產。那麼,有機鋼生產、有機鋼增量生產暫時不被考慮的假設是否合理?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
I would say on the hot side, for sure. Downstream coating, value add, there's still, I think, a myriad of opportunities for us. But if you look at Sinton's -- for that investment -- that project is very, very, very unique, both from a product standpoint but also sort of a market -- a regional market standpoint, and that's what persuaded us to move forward there. I don't believe there are those types of opportunities available today. If there's -- there may be incremental, where we'll take existing hot metal capability and add assets to use that existing capability, but I don't believe you'll see us -- I'm pretty sure you won't see us building green -- any more greenfield hot sides.
我一定會說是熱的一面。我認為,下游塗料、增值領域仍有無數的機會。但如果你看看Sinton 的投資,這個項目非常、非常、非常獨特,無論是從產品的角度來看,還是從市場的角度來看——從區域市場的角度來看,這就是說服我們向前推進的原因。 。我不相信今天有這樣的機會。如果有——可能會有增量,我們將利用現有的鐵水能力並添加資產來使用現有的能力,但我不相信你會看到我們——我很確定你不會看到我們建立綠色——任何更多的綠地熱點。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Andreas Bokkenheuser with UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Andreas Bokkenheuser。
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Just a couple of questions from me. And then following up on the last comments. We obviously saw flat-rolled steel shipments declined a little bit year-on-year. I think you did 1.9 million tons, not significantly below, but is that because production constraints that the shipments actually fell year-on-year? That's the first question.
我只想問幾個問題。然後再跟進最後的評論。我們明顯看到扁鋼出貨量較去年同期略有下降。我認為你們做到了190萬噸,並沒有明顯低於,但是否因為生產限制導致出貨量實際上同比下降?這是第一個問題。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Andreas, are you talking specifically about Steel Dynamics and our first quarter shipments?
Andreas,您是在具體談論 Steel Dynamics 和我們第一季的出貨量嗎?
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Yes. So it was a direct result of 2 of our steel divisions. We actually had improvement over all of our operations, except for our Roanoke Bar Division and the Steel of West Virginia Division. And there have been some good improvements made there commercially and the team is doing incredibly well. And I think you're going to see a big shift and change in that. But that specifically, it wasn't anything that was noteworthy, and it was only 25,000 tons different, I think.
是的。所以這是我們兩個鋼鐵部門的直接結果。事實上,除了我們的羅阿諾克棒材分部和西維吉尼亞鋼鐵分部外,我們的所有業務都得到了改善。商業上已經有了一些很好的改進,團隊做得非常好。我認為你會看到這方面的巨大轉變和變化。但具體來說,這並沒有什麼值得注意的地方,我認為只有 25,000 噸不同。
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Yes. No, that's what I figured. Okay. That's very clear. And the second question, I mean, obviously, there's been a lot of talk in the market in recent quarters about the tightness of prime scrap and how the prime scrap market is going to grow even tighter with the EAF capacities coming online and so on and so forth. And I'm sure you've seen some commentary. Some people are saying that EAFs are going to be the next high-cost producers in the market and scrap prices are going to keep rallying and so on and so forth. Where do you guys come down on all of this? I mean effectively, is this just a question about you go a little bit further on the radius and basically collect a bit more prime scrap from other manufacturers and then there's sufficient supply of prime scrap for anybody who's willing to go a little bit further? Or do you see an actual amount of tightness in the market just given that manufacturing, especially auto production is under pressure in the years to come?
是的。不,我就是這麼想的。好的。這非常清楚。第二個問題,我的意思是,顯然,近幾個季度市場上有很多關於優質廢鋼供應緊張的討論,以及隨著電弧爐產能的上線,優質廢鋼市場將如何變得更加緊張等等。等等。我相信你已經看到了一些評論。有人說,電弧爐將成為市場上下一個高成本生產商,廢鋼價格將繼續上漲,等等。你們對這一切有何看法?我的意思是,實際上,這是否只是一個關於你在半徑上走得更遠一點,基本上從其他製造商那裡收集更多的優質廢料,然後為願意走得更遠一點的人提供足夠的優質廢料供應的問題?或者考慮到製造業,尤其是汽車生產在未來幾年面臨壓力,您是否認為市場實際上存在緊張程度?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, firstly, I would suggest that scrap is an incredibly efficient market. It's probably the most effective commodity out there. I do believe that, yes, there's additional capacity that you got from this capacity coming online. But if you do the math, you may need to find about somewhere around 4 million tons of additional prime scrap. You also have to offset that a little bit because people forget the integrator mills use scrap. They use prime scrap. And so with the reduced capacity there, there's a little less consumed on the integrated side of things.
好吧,首先,我認為廢鋼是一個非常有效率的市場。它可能是最有效的商品。我確實相信,是的,您可以從線上容量中獲得額外的容量。但如果你算一下,你可能需要在某個地方找到大約 400 萬噸的額外優質廢料。您還必須稍微抵消這一點,因為人們忘記了積分工廠使用廢料。他們使用優質廢料。因此,隨著容量的減少,整合方面的消耗也會減少一些。
But I think if you look at the scrap market in general, we -- even in these recent times, we're exporting around 12 million, 15 million tons a year. There have been times when we've exported 20 million tons a year. So scrap is certainly available. It may appreciate in price to some degree. But I don't believe you're going to see any significant issues from a profitability or a cost perspective for the electric arc furnace community.
但我認為,如果你看看整個廢鋼市場,我們——即使在最近一段時間,我們每年出口的廢鋼量約為 1200 萬至 1500 萬噸。我們曾經一度每年出口2000萬噸。所以廢料肯定是可用的。價格可能會在一定程度上升價值。但我不認為您會從電弧爐社區的盈利能力或成本角度看到任何重大問題。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Andreas, as we looked at -- when we pulled together what we believe to be scrap generation over the coming years, and we added in the new capacity related to electric arc furnaces, the scrap generation, both including prime scrap as well as prime scrap substitutes with a lot of the additional projects coming online, we believe will outpace the increased demand. So I know there's different philosophies being touted about out there right now, but that was our original promise, and we still believe in that.
安德烈亞斯,正如我們所看到的那樣,當我們將我們認為未來幾年的廢鋼發電量匯總在一起時,我們添加了與電弧爐、廢鋼發電相關的新產能,包括主要廢鋼和主要廢鋼隨著許多額外項目的上線,我們相信將超過需求的成長。所以我知道現在有不同的哲學被吹捧,但這是我們最初的承諾,我們仍然相信這一點。
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst
Yes. No, that makes a lot of sense. And I think your 4-million-ton estimate is very much also in line with our own.
是的。不,這很有意義。我認為你們的400萬噸估計也與我們的估計非常一致。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
I think actually, one more thing. Because, as they say, necessity is the mother of invention. And given the remarkable spread between prime scrap and obsolete today, our mills, and I'm sure our competition is doing the same thing, but they are creating new mixes and we've actually reduced our prime scrap requirements by over 10%, maybe more at our flat roll facilities. If the whole industry, electric arc furnace flat-rolled-producing industry were to do that, obviously that's a meaningful reduction as well.
我認為實際上,還有一件事。因為,正如他們所說,需要是發明之母。考慮到當今優質廢鋼和過時廢鋼之間的顯著差異,我們的工廠和我確信我們的競爭對手也在做同樣的事情,但他們正在創造新的混合物,而我們實際上已經將我們的優質廢鋼需求減少了10% 以上,也許更多詳情請參閱我們的平卷工廠。如果整個產業,電弧爐平軋材生產產業都這樣做,顯然這也是一個有意義的減少。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Just on the fabrication business, I think last quarter, it was mentioned that the first quarter will be the bottom of the profitability cycle there. If I understood correctly, Theresa, you said that this month probably -- from this month on, probably you start to see margin expansion. So can you elaborate a little bit more so that we fully understand where are we in the fabrication business and profitability cycle? Yes.
就製造業務而言,我認為上個季度有人提到第一季將是那裡盈利週期的底部。如果我沒理解錯的話,特蕾莎,你說這個月可能——從這個月開始,你可能會開始看到利潤率擴張。那麼您能否詳細說明一下,以便我們充分了解我們在製造業務和盈利週期中的位置?是的。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Absolutely. So from the steel fabrication, we're likely to see March and April be the trough months as we are working through or have worked through the order backlog. Today, steel and steel deck -- steel joist and steel deck prices are actually at all-time record highs, and demand is extraordinary. So one should see that start to develop. It's already into a record backlog that's reaching into the fourth quarter of 2021. And you're likely to see a better second quarter. But in the second half of the year, it could be quite powerful from an earnings perspective.
絕對地。因此,從鋼鐵製造來看,我們可能會看到三月和四月是低谷月份,因為我們正在處理或已經處理了訂單積壓。如今,鋼材和鋼甲板——鋼托樑和鋼甲板的價格實際上已經創歷史新高,而且需求量非常大。所以人們應該看到這一點開始發展。積壓訂單數量已創歷史新高,預計將持續到 2021 年第四季。第二季的情況可能會更好。但在今年下半年,從獲利角度來看,它可能會相當強勁。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Perfect. And if I may, just a clarification on the CapEx. It is not much, but the Midwest 2 new coated lines are expected to cost a little bit more than those in the South. What is the reason for that, if I may ask?
完美的。如果可以的話,請澄清一下資本支出。雖然不多,但中西部 2 條新塗層線的成本預計比南部的成本要高一些。如果我可以問的話,原因是什麼?
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Yes. Carlos, it's actually opposite, and we may have said it wrong. The $225 million lines are likely to be in the South, and the $175 million to $200 million lines are likely to be in the Midwest. Mark, do you want to talk about the technical differences between the sets of lines, why one might be higher than the other?
是的。卡洛斯,實際上是相反的,我們可能說錯了。 2.25 億美元的線路可能位於南部,1.75 億美元至 2 億美元的線路可能位於中西部。馬克,你想談談各組線之間的技術差異嗎?為什麼一組線可能比另一組線高?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, quite simply, one has a slightly higher product capability. The ones in the South tend to have some automotive capability, whereas the one in the Midwest will be more building-product-targeted.
嗯,很簡單,一個人的產品能力稍微高一點。南方的企業往往具有一定的汽車能力,而中西部的企業則更以建築產品為目標。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
I think it has a little to do with the infrastructure that's possibly required as well.
我認為這也與可能需要的基礎設施有一點關係。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Timna Tanners with Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Timna Tanners。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD
Timna Beth Tanners - MD
I wanted to ask just really about production to follow up. So two things. One is your first quarter production, flat roll products were down year-over-year. And I thought I heard you say that it was a result of Roanoke and West Virginia, which are long products. So I was kind of confused. I would assume, and I think the big question for a lot of people in the industry is why are the mills not running full out, given record prices. And yet you guys were down year-over-year and down from third quarter in flat roll. So just wondering what to think about that and how to model volumes going forward.
我想真正詢問後續的生產情況。所以有兩件事。一是第一季的平卷產品產量年減。我想我聽到你說這是羅阿諾克和西維吉尼亞州的結果,它們是長材產品。所以我有點困惑。我認為,對於業內很多人來說,最大的問題是,鑑於創紀錄的價格,為什麼工廠沒有滿載運作。然而,你們的業績年減,並且從第三季開始表現平平。所以只是想知道如何看待這個問題以及如何對未來的交易量進行建模。
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary
So first of all, I'll just jump in. I thought Andreas was talking about shipments, not production. So if I got that wrong, that was my fault. Mark, do you want to talk about the production side of things? Suffice it to say, Timna, that we are running as hard as we can at both Butler and at Columbus. We aren't without some of our hiccups along the way as well. But we've rectified those and yes.
首先,我想插話一下。我以為安德烈亞斯談論的是出貨量,而不是生產。所以,如果我錯了,那是我的錯。馬克,你想談談製作方面的事嗎?提姆納,我只想說,我們在巴特勒和哥倫布都在盡我們所能地努力。一路上我們也並非沒有遇到一些小問題。但我們已經糾正了這些問題,是的。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
I think there's also an impact a little bit on product mix and also on shipments from a standpoint of transportation. And logistics is a little tough right now. We had a greater opportunity for our shipments than we actually ended up, but.
我認為從運輸的角度來看,這對產品組合和出貨量也有一些影響。現在物流有點困難。我們的發貨機會比實際結果更大,但是。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD
Timna Beth Tanners - MD
Okay. So upside from Q1, it sounds like. And then on Sinton, I was looking through my notes, and I have a couple of years ago, so maybe it's dated, but you had said pretty clearly and talked about being able to ramp up quickly. So we had modeled a little more aggressive ramp-up, to be honest, on Sinton. I have in my notes that you said within 6 months, you'd be at 80% of that. So I'm just wondering, is there any reason for kind of the pushout in timing. And also just in the 2022 forecast, you touted in the past an ability to ramp up quickly and talked about your track record doing so. But -- so I was surprised at 2 million, 2.2 million out of 3 million tons next year.
好的。聽起來比第一季有上行空間。然後在 Sinton,我正在查看我的筆記,我幾年前就有了,所以也許它已經過時了,但你已經說得很清楚並談到了能夠快速提升。因此,說實話,我們在 Sinton 的基礎上進行了更激進的升級。我在筆記中提到,您說 6 個月內,您將達到 80%。所以我只是想知道,是否有任何理由在時間上推出。而且就在 2022 年預測中,您過去曾吹捧快速增長的能力,並談到了您這樣做的記錄。但是——所以我對明年 300 萬噸中的 200 萬、220 萬噸感到驚訝。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, 2.2 million, 2.4 million tons is 80% of a 3-million-ton capability, Timna. And I think the team hitting that will be a remarkable feat.
好吧,220 萬、240 萬噸是 300 萬噸產能的 80%,Timna。我認為球隊擊中這一目標將是一項了不起的壯舉。
Operator
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Phil Gibbs。
Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst
Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst
And Mark, can you talk a little bit about automotive? I mean there's a lot swirling, given the chip shortages and the downtime at the -- at some of the domestic and NAFTA producers even globally. You said your shipments remained strong. Obviously, the demand side of equation is very strong, to your point. So I'm just trying to understand how this ultimately all plays out. Do you think the OEs, despite all this, were short on inventory that's why they continue to take volume? Maybe just help us think through this.
馬克,你能談談汽車嗎?我的意思是,考慮到晶片短缺和一些國內和北美自由貿易協定生產商甚至全球生產商的停工,存在著許多問題。您說您的出貨量仍然強勁。顯然,就您而言,需求方非常強大。所以我只是想了解這一切最終是如何發生的。您是否認為,儘管如此,原始設備製造商仍因庫存短缺而繼續增加銷售?也許只是幫助我們思考這個問題。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, I think the sort of end demand for vehicles today is incredibly strong and that the few dealers that I talked to are struggling to get inventory and feel that it's -- that, that strength is going to remain for some time. I think they were generally projecting somewhere between 17 million and 18 million units for the year. And the best prognostications are that the chip shortage may impact that by 1 million, 1.5 million, I'm not sure. All I can say is through our lens, and it's quite fortuitous, I guess, but the plants that are down are not ones that we supply. So we have not seen any material impact from a shipping standpoint. We have seen a slight impact on the scrap side. So I think you're going to see as -- we anticipated that softening a little bit last month, for this month, I think prime scrap is probably going to be firm, maybe up a little. But then again, it's just too early to tell. The buy is still a couple of weeks out. But no major impact for us so far.
嗯,我認為當今對車輛的最終需求非常強勁,我採訪過的少數經銷商正在努力獲取庫存,並認為這種強勁勢頭將持續一段時間。我認為他們預計今年的銷量通常在 1700 萬到 1800 萬台之間。最好的預測是晶片短缺可能會影響 100 萬、150 萬,我不確定。我只能說是透過我們的鏡頭,我猜這是相當偶然的,但倒下的植物不是我們提供的。因此,從運輸的角度來看,我們沒有看到任何實質影響。我們看到廢鋼方面受到了輕微影響。所以我認為你會看到——我們預計上個月會軟化,而本月,我認為優質廢鋼可能會堅挺,甚至可能會上漲一點。但話又說回來,現在下結論還太早。購買還有幾週。但到目前為止對我們還沒有產生重大影響。
Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst
Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst
And then on the engineered bar side, you had a nice pickup in volume, very strong sequentially and up nicely year-on-year. How much of that do you think is driven by automotive? I can't remember how much of your mix there is in that silo. And how much of that do you think is related to the yellow goods commentary you made?
然後在工程酒吧方面,成交量有了很好的回升,連續非常強勁,並且同比也有很好的增長。您認為其中有多少是由汽車驅動的?我不記得那個筒倉裡有多少你的混合物。您認為這有多少與您發表的黃貨評論有關?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, I think there's a general impact across the space. We've seen a little greater activity sort of a seamless pipe for the energy markets, yellow goods is stronger, manufacturing is stronger. But I would say the principal growth and target for that growth there has been automotive. I think we're around about 20% of the mix there right now. And if you remember, some years ago, we installed a smaller diameter mill, and that utilization is picking up quite dramatically.
嗯,我認為這對整個領域都有普遍影響。我們看到能源市場的活動增加,就像無縫管道一樣,黃色商品更加強勁,製造業更加強勁。但我想說,主要的成長和成長目標是汽車產業。我認為目前我們的比例約為 20%。如果您還記得的話,幾年前,我們安裝了一台較小直徑的磨機,並且利用率正在顯著提高。
Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst
Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst
And if I could squeeze in one more here. Lumber prices have been obviously astronomically high the last 6 to 9 months. Steel prices have followed the trend obviously. I mean how much, in some cases, are you seeing substitution into steel, particularly as it relates to your fabrication book and maybe some other things as competing products become more expensive as well?
如果我能再擠進一張的話。過去 6 至 9 個月,木材價格明顯處於天文數字的高點。鋼材價格跟隨走勢明顯。我的意思是,在某些情況下,您會看到多少鋼材被替代,特別是因為它與您的製造書籍有關,也許還有一些其他東西,因為競爭產品也變得更加昂貴?
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, we've not seen any -- at least I don't -- I'm not aware of seeing any substitution threat right now. Obviously, all materials have come up together. But then again, steel products are quite unique to replace. In the steel warehouse space, where they want large spans, you obviously can't do that with lumber. You may see lumber substitution in high-rise buildings in the past, but not in the growth area of distribution warehouses and that sort of thing.
好吧,我們還沒有看到任何——至少我沒有——我不知道現在看到任何替代威脅。顯然,所有材料都集中在一起了。但話又說回來,鋼鐵產品的替代性是非常獨特的。在鋼結構倉庫空間中,他們需要大跨度,顯然不能用木材做到這一點。過去你可能會在高層建築中看到木材替代,但在配送倉庫之類的成長領域卻看不到。
Operator
Operator
That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給米利特先生,讓他作結束語。
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Mark D. Millett - Co-Founder, CEO, President & Executive Director
Well, super. For those that remain on the call, we certainly appreciate your time today and your support of our company. For our employees, again, hats off to you. It was an absolutely phenomenal quarter and ask you to look after each other out there and be safe. And again, we wouldn't be able to have a phenomenal quarter without our customer base. We got some loyal phenomenal people that we work with, that we've partnered with over the years. So thank you, each and every one of you. And with that said, make it a great day and be safe.
嗯,超級。對於那些仍然參與電話會議的人,我們當然感謝您今天抽出寶貴的時間以及您對我們公司的支持。我們的員工再次向你們致敬。這絕對是一個非凡的季度,請你們在外面互相照顧並注意安全。再說一遍,如果沒有我們的客戶群,我們就不可能有一個出色的季度。我們有一些忠誠的傑出人士與我們一起工作,多年來一直與我們合作。所以謝謝你們每一個人。話雖如此,祝今天度過愉快的一天並注意安全。
Operator
Operator
Once again, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. Have a great and safe day.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。祝您有美好安全的一天。