Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Steel Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised this call is being recorded today, January 25, 2022, and your participation implies consent to our recording this call. If you do not agree to these terms, please disconnect.

    美好的一天,歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2021 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,本次通話將於今天(2022 年 1 月 25 日)進行錄音,您的參與即表示同意我們對本次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款,請中斷連線。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to David Lipschitz, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 David Lipschitz。請繼續。

  • David Lipschitz

    David Lipschitz

  • Thank you, Kate. Good morning, and welcome to Steel Dynamics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website for replay later today.

    謝謝你,凱特。早上好,歡迎參加 Steel Dynamics 2021 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。謹此提醒,今天的通話正在錄音中,並將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上重播。

  • Leading today's call are Mark Millett, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steel Dynamics; and Theresa Wagler, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The other members of our senior leadership team are joining us on the call individually.

    今天的電話會議由 Steel Dynamics 董事長兼執行長 Mark Millett 主持。執行副總裁兼財務長Theresa Wagler。我們高級領導團隊的其他成員將單獨加入我們的電話會議。

  • Some of today's statements, which speak only as of this date, may be forward-looking and predictive, typically preceded by believe, expect, anticipate or words of similar meaning. They are intended to be protected by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 should actual results turn out differently.

    今天的一些陳述僅代表當前情況,可能具有前瞻性和預測性,通常前面帶有相信、期望、預期或類似含義的詞語。如果實際結果有所不同,它們將受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的保護。

  • Such statements involve risks and uncertainties related to our steel, metals recycling and our fabrication businesses as well as to general business and economic conditions. Examples of these are described in the related press release as well as in our annually filed SEC Form 10-K under the headings Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors found on the Internet at www.sec.gov and if applicable, in any later SEC Form 10-Q.

    此類陳述涉及與我們的鋼鐵、金屬回收和製造業務以及一般業務和經濟狀況相關的風險和不確定性。這些範例在相關新聞稿以及我們每年提交的SEC 表格10-K 中的前瞻性陳述和風險因素標題下進行了描述,可在互聯網www.sec.gov 上找到,如果適用,還可在任何後續SEC中找到表格 10-Q。

  • You will also find any reference to non-GAAP financial measures reconciled to the most directly compared GAAP measures in the press release issued yesterday entitled Steel Dynamics Reports Record Fourth Quarter and Record Full Year 2021 Results.

    您還可以在昨天發布的題為《Steel Dynamics 報告創紀錄的第四季度和創紀錄的2021 年全年業績》的新聞稿中找到與最直接比較的GAAP 指標相一致的非GAAP 財務指標的引用。

  • Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Mark.

    現在我很高興將電話轉給馬克。

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Thank you, David, and good morning, everybody. Happy 2022. Welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings call. We all appreciate your time, and thank you for joining us today.

    謝謝你,大衛,大家早安。 2022 年快樂。歡迎參加我們的 2021 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我們非常感謝您抽出寶貴的時間,並感謝您今天加入我們。

  • The entire Steel Dynamics team delivered an exceptional performance in '21 with record sales, earnings and cash flow generation. The team totally shared the previous full year records. It was a tremendous achievement certainly supported by a strong market but driven by commitment and passion of our teams, executing on our long-term strategies that continue to grow through-cycle earnings capability. Thank you, team, for your dedication to excellence in every pursuit. I'm proud to work alongside you.

    Steel Dynamics 整個團隊在 21 年取得了卓越的業績,銷售、盈利和現金流創紀錄。球隊完全刷新了之前的全年記錄。這是一項巨大的成就,當然得到了強勁市場的支持,但也受到了我們團隊的承諾和熱情的推動,並執行了我們持續增長整個週期盈利能力的長期戰略。感謝團隊在每一個追求中追求卓越的奉獻精神。我很自豪能和你一起工作。

  • Due to the steadfast commitment, our people helped one another and their families. To our communities and to our customers, we are operating safely amidst the extended pandemic. The health and welfare of our teams remain paramount.

    由於堅定的承諾,我們的人民互相幫助以及他們的家人。對於我們的社區和客戶來說,我們在疫情持續蔓延的情況下安全地運作。我們團隊的健康和福祉仍然至關重要。

  • Record financial results are no important if our teams did not remain safe. Although, our safety performance continues to be better than industry averages, our safety performance deteriorated year-over-year. This is an unacceptable trend that we're working diligently to resolve as our intent will always be to have 0 incidents.

    如果我們的團隊無法保持安全,創紀錄的財務表現並不重要。儘管我們的安全績效持續優於行業平均水平,但我們的安全績效逐年惡化。這是一個不可接受的趨勢,我們正在努力解決這個問題,因為我們的目標始終是零事故。

  • Since our founding over 25 years ago, we've been intentional in managing our resources sustainably for the benefit of all of our stakeholders. We are steel industry leader in sustainability, operating exclusively with electric-arc-furnace technology with a differentiated circular manufacturing business model.

    自 25 年前成立以來,我們一直致力於永續管理我們的資源,以造福所有利害關係人。我們是鋼鐵業可持續發展的領導者,專門採用電弧爐技術和差異化的循環製造業務模式進行營運。

  • As our journey continues, we are committed to the reduction of our climate footprint, including a practical and achievable goal for our steel mills to be carbon neutral by 2050.

    隨著旅程的繼續,我們致力於減少我們的氣候足跡,包括我們的鋼廠在 2050 年實現碳中和的實際且可實現的目標。

  • We are starting from a position of strength yet plan to do more. We're competitively positioned and focused towards generating long-term sustainable growth.

    我們的起點很強大,但計劃做得更多。我們處於競爭地位並專注於實現長期永續成長。

  • But before I continue with additional market commentary, I'd like Theresa to share insights into our recent performance.

    但在我繼續發表更多市場評論之前,我希望特蕾莎分享一下對我們近期表現的見解。

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Good to speak with you. I want to add my sincere appreciation and congratulation to the entire team. We continue to achieve new milestones throughout the business, attained record annual performance, with record revenues of $18.4 billion derived from strong product pricing and volumes across all of our operating platforms. Record operating income of $4.3 billion and net income of $3.2 billion or $15.56 per diluted share and record cash flow from operations of $2.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of over $4.6 billion, truly an exceptional performance.

    謝謝你,馬克。大家,早安。很高興與你交談。我想向整個團隊表達誠摯的謝意和祝賀。我們的整個業務不斷實現新的里程碑,年度業績創歷史新高,得益於我們所有營運平台強勁的產品定價和銷量,創紀錄的收入達到 184 億美元。創紀錄的營業收入為43 億美元,淨利潤為32 億美元,即稀釋後每股收益15.56 美元,營運現金流為創紀錄的22 億美元,調整後EBITDA 超過46 億美元,這確實是一個出色的業績。

  • Regarding our fourth quarter 2021 results, net income was $1.09 billion or $5.49 per diluted share, which includes additional performance-based company-wide special compensation of approximately $21 million or $0.08 per diluted share, which was awarded to all the nonexecutives, eligible team members in recognition of their extraordinary performance. Our fourth quarter contribution to the company's charitable foundation of $10 million or $0.04 per diluted share and costs of approximately $52 million or $0.18 per diluted share associated with the construction and startup of our Sinton Texas Flat Roll Steel Mill. Excluding these items, fourth quarter 2021 adjusted net income was over $1.15 billion or $5.78 per diluted share.

    關於我們2021 年第四季的業績,淨利潤為10.9 億美元或稀釋後每股5.49 美元,其中包括約2,100 萬美元或稀釋後每股0.08 美元的額外基於業績的全公司特別薪酬,該薪酬獎勵給所有非執行、合格的團隊成員以表彰他們的非凡表現。第四季度,我們向公司慈善基金會捐款1000 萬美元,即稀釋後每股0.04 美元,與辛頓德克薩斯扁鋼廠的建設和啟動相關的成本約為5200 萬美元,即稀釋後每股0.18 美元。排除這些項目,2021 年第四季調整後淨利超過 11.5 億美元,即稀釋後每股收益 5.78 美元。

  • Our fourth quarter 2021 record revenues of $5.3 billion was 4% higher than sequential third quarter results driven by higher realized selling values in our steel fabrication business and our flat rolled steel operations.

    我們的 2021 年第四季創紀錄的收入為 53 億美元,比第三季的連續業績成長 4%,這是由於我們的鋼鐵製造業務和扁鋼業務實現的銷售價值更高。

  • Our fourth quarter 2021 record operating income of $1.4 billion with 8% higher than sequential results driven by the continued demand strength in our steel fabrication operations.

    受鋼鐵製造業務需求持續強勁的推動,我們 2021 年第四季的營業收入達到創紀錄的 14 億美元,比上一季的業績高出 8%。

  • As we discuss our business this morning, we see positive industry fundamentals for 2022, and we're focused toward our continued transformational growth initiatives.

    當我們今天早上討論我們的業務時,我們看到了 2022 年積極的行業基本面,並且我們專注於持續的轉型成長計劃。

  • Our steel operations generated record operating income of $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter as increased realized selling values expanded margins across the steel platform, offsetting seasonally lower volumes. Our lagging flat roll contract business represented approximately 80% to 85% of our total flat roll volume in the quarter.

    我們的鋼鐵業務在第四季度創造了創紀錄的 14 億美元營業收入,因為已實現銷售價值的增加擴大了整個鋼鐵平台的利潤率,抵消了季節性下降的銷售量。我們落後的平卷合約業務約佔本季平卷總銷量的 80% 至 85%。

  • We had quarterly steel shipments of 2.7 million tons with our steel mills operating at 88% of their capability. For the full year 2021, our steel operations achieved numerous financial and operational milestones. The platform's full year operating income was a record $4.4 billion with record shipments of 11.2 million tons, truly phenomenal performance.

    我們的季度鋼材出貨量為 270 萬噸,鋼廠開工率為 88%。 2021 年全年,我們的鋼鐵業務實現了許多財務和營運里程碑。該平台全年營業收入達到創紀錄的44億美元,出貨量達到創紀錄的1,120萬噸,業績堪稱現象級。

  • Now to remind you, we still have additional market opportunity, mostly within our long products group and now with the startup of our Sinton, Texas mill. Because based on our existing annual steel shipping capability, we have over 13 million tons of shipping capability on the steel side and Sinton's fully ramped, it will be over 16 million tons.

    現在提醒您,我們仍然有額外的市場機會,主要是在我們的長材產品組內,現在隨著我們德克薩斯州辛頓工廠的啟動。因為按照我們現有的年鋼材運輸能力,我們鋼材方面的運輸能力超過1300萬噸,而Sinton全面開工後,將超過1600萬噸。

  • Operating income from our metals recycling operations for the fourth quarter remained strong at $44 million based on the improved metal margins offsetting lower fair shipments. Many domestic steel mills have planned maintenance outages throughout the fourth quarter, lowering various scrap demand. For the full year 2021, operating income from metals recycling operations was a record $195 million driven by uniquely higher volume and average selling value for both ferrous and nonferrous recycling.

    由於金屬利潤率的提高抵消了公平出貨量的下降,第四季度金屬回收業務的營業收入依然強勁,達到 4,400 萬美元。國內多家鋼廠已計劃整個第四季停產檢修,降低了各種廢鋼需求。 2021 年全年,金屬回收業務的營業收入達到創紀錄的 1.95 億美元,主要得益於黑色金屬和有色金屬回收業務的產量和平均銷售價值的大幅成長。

  • The team continues to effectively lever the strength of our circular manufacturing operating model, being both our steel and metals recycling operations by providing higher quality scrap, which improves furnace efficiency and reduces company-wide working capital requirements.

    該團隊繼續有效地利用我們的循環製造營運模式的優勢,透過提供更高品質的廢料來提高鋼鐵和金屬回收業務,從而提高熔爐效率並降低全公司的營運資金需求。

  • Our steel fabrication operations also achieved record operating income in the quarter of $238 million, 2.5x record third quarter results, driven by materially higher realized selling value, which more than offset escalated average steel input costs. For the full year 2021, our steel fabrication platform achieved another record year with operating income of $365 million and record volumes of 789,000 tons, both eclipsing previous peaks. Congratulations to the team.

    我們的鋼鐵製造業務在本季也實現了創紀錄的營業收入2.38 億美元,是第三季創紀錄業績的2.5 倍,這得益於已實現的銷售價值大幅提高,這遠遠抵消了平均鋼鐵投入成本的上升。 2021 年全年,我們的鋼鐵製造平台再創歷史新高,營業收入達到 3.65 億美元,產量達到創紀錄的 789,000 噸,均超過了之前的峰值。祝賀團隊。

  • Steel joist and deck demand remains very strong as evidenced by continued robust order activity, resulting in another record order backlog at the end of the quarter, extending throughout 2022. Based on our backlog and customer sentiment, we expect steel fabrication earnings to continue to increase into 2022.

    持續強勁的訂單活動證明了鋼托樑和甲板的需求仍然非常強勁,導致本季末的訂單積壓再次創紀錄,並持續到2022 年。根據我們的積壓訂單和客戶情緒,我們預計鋼鐵製造收益將繼續成長到2022年。

  • Our cash generation continues to be strong based on our differentiated circular business model and highly variable cost structure. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had liquidity of $2.4 billion comprised of cash of $1.2 billion and are fully available unsecured revolver of $1.2 billion. During the fourth quarter of 2021, we generated record cash flow from operations of $724 million and $2.2 billion for the full year, also a record.

    基於我們差異化的循環業務模式和高度變動的成本結構,我們的現金產生能力持續強勁。截至第四季末,我們擁有 24 億美元的流動性,其中包括 12 億美元的現金,以及 12 億美元的完全可用的無擔保循環資金。 2021 年第四季度,我們的營運現金流達創紀錄的 7.24 億美元,全年營運現金流達 22 億美元,也創歷史新高。

  • Working capital grew $1.7 billion during the year due to higher selling values, resulting in increased customer account and inventory values. During 2021, we invested $1 billion in capital investments, of which $831 million was invested in our new Texas flat-rolled steel mill.

    由於銷售價值增加,導致客戶帳戶和庫存價值增加,營運資本年內增加了 17 億美元。 2021年,我們投入了10億美元的資本投資,其中8.31億美元投資於我們新的德州扁鋼廠。

  • During 2022, we believe capital investments will be in the range of $750 million, the majority of which relates to 4 new flat-rolled coating lines to be placed in Sinton and Heartland.

    2022 年,我們相信資本投資將在 7.5 億美元左右,其中大部分涉及將在 Sinton 和 Heartland 部署的 4 條新平軋塗裝線。

  • Regarding shareholder distributions, we maintained our quarterly cash dividend of $0.26 per common share after increasing at 4% in the first quarter of 2021. We also repurchased $330 million of our common stock in the fourth quarter, representing 3% of outstanding shares. At December 31, we had $383 million remaining authorized for repurchase under that program.

    在股東分配方面,我們維持了每股普通股0.26 美元的季度現金股息,繼2021 年第一季增加4% 後,我們還在第四季度回購了3.3 億美元的普通股,佔已發行股票的3%。截至 12 月 31 日,該計劃下我們仍有 3.83 億美元的回購授權。

  • In the past 5 years, we've increased our cash dividend per share of about 86%, and we repurchased $2.3 billion of our common stock, representing 23% of our outstanding shares. While during the same timeframe we achieved an investment-grade credit rating and maintained our growth company profile by investing $3.1 billion in organic capital investment and funding (inaudible). These actions reflect the strength of our capital foundation and consistently strong cash flow generation and the continued optimism and confidence in our future.

    在過去的5年裡,我們的每股現金股利增加了約86%,我們回購了23億美元的普通股,占我們已發行股票的23%。在同一時間段內,我們獲得了投資等級信用評級,並透過投資 31 億美元進行有機資本投資和融資(聽不清楚),維持了我們的成長型公司形象。這些舉措反映了我們的資本基礎實力和持續強勁的現金流產生以及對未來的持續樂觀和信心。

  • Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes strategic growth, with shareholder distributions comprised of a base positive dividend profile that is complemented with a variable share repurchase program while also dedicated to preserving our investment-grade credit designation.

    我們的資本配置策略優先考慮策略性成長,股東分配包括基本的正股利狀況,並輔以可變股票回購計劃,同時也致力於維持我們的投資等級信用稱號。

  • We are squarely positioned for the continuation of sustainable, optimized long-term value creation. Sustainability is a part of this strategy, and we're dedicated to our people, our communities and our environment. We're committed to operating our business with the highest level of integrity. Further committing to this path, in 2021, we announced greenhouse gas reduction and renewable energy goals, including a goal for our steel mills to be carbon neutral by 2050. To increase transparency and accountability, we also have interim milestones for 2025 and 2030.

    我們已做好充分準備,持續可持續、優化的長期價值創造。永續發展是這項策略的一部分,我們致力於我們的人民、我們的社區和我們的環境。我們致力於以最高水準的誠信經營我們的業務。為了進一步致力於這條道路,我們在2021 年宣布了溫室氣體減排和可再生能源目標,包括我們的鋼廠到2050 年實現碳中和的目標。為了提高透明度和問責制,我們也制定了2025 年和2030 年的中期里程碑。

  • We've led the steel industry with an exclusive use of electric arc furnace steelmaking technology, circular manufacturing model and innovative solutions to increase efficiency, reduce raw material usage, reuse secondary materials and promote material conservation and recycling. We plan to sustain our leadership position by executing our climate goals through, among other avenues, implementing emission reduction projects, improving energy management, increasing the use of renewable energy and developing and supporting new innovative technologies. We have an actionable path that is more manageable and, we believe, considerably less expensive than what may lay ahead for our traditional blast furnace industry peers.

    我們以獨家電弧爐煉鋼技術、循環製造模式和創新解決方案引領鋼鐵業,提高效率、減少原料使用、再利用二次材料並促進材料節約和回收。我們計劃透過實施減排項目、改善能源管理、增加再生能源的使用以及開發和支持新的創新技術等途徑來執行我們的氣候目標,以維持我們的領導地位。我們有一條可行的道路,它更易於管理,而且我們相信,與傳統高爐行業同行相比,成本要低得多。

  • Our sustainability and climate strategy is an ongoing journey, and we're moving forward with the intention to make a positive difference. We plan to continue to address these matters and to play an industry leadership role moving forward.

    我們的永續發展和氣候策略是一個持續的旅程,我們正在前進,旨在做出積極的改變。我們計劃繼續解決這些問題,並繼續發揮行業領導作用。

  • Thank you, Mark.

    謝謝你,馬克。

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Super. Thank you, Theresa. And as you said, our steel fabrication operations performed exceptionally well throughout 2021, achieving record volume and earnings.

    極好的。謝謝你,特蕾莎。正如您所說,我們的鋼鐵製造業務在 2021 年表現異常出色,產量和收益均創歷史新高。

  • The earnings power of this platform in a strong construction environment is yet to be completely displayed. At the end of the year, our steel joist and deck order backlog was at a record level for both volume and forward pricing, extending through much of 2022.

    該平台在建立強勁的環境下的獲利能力尚未完全展現。截至 2022 年底,我們的鋼托樑和甲板訂單積壓量和遠期定價均創歷史新高,並持續到 2022 年的大部分時間。

  • The nonresidential construction market remains strong, especially in areas that support online retail, data centers, schools and health care, specifically represented by construction of distribution warehouse facility. Our steel fabrication operations provide a powerful natural hedge to our steel production operations in a steady or softening steel price environment.

    非住宅建築市場仍然強勁,特別是在支援線上零售、資料中心、學校和醫療保健的領域,特別是配送倉庫設施的建設。在鋼鐵價格穩定或疲軟的環境下,我們的鋼鐵製造業務為我們的鋼鐵生產業務提供了強大的自然對沖。

  • Our metals recycling operations also performed well this year, achieving record annual earnings and strong volume growth.

    我們的金屬回收業務今年也表現良好,實現了創紀錄的年度收益和強勁的銷售成長。

  • The acquisition of a Mexican metals recycling company in August of 2020 has proven to be both strategic supply and an excellent investment, combining a great financial result with the additional benefit of growing access to prime scrap at North Central Mexico in support of our southern electric arc furnace flat-rolled steel mill.

    事實證明,2020 年8 月收購一家墨西哥金屬回收公司既是策略性供應,也是一項出色的投資,不僅帶來了巨大的財務成果,也帶來了墨西哥中北部增加獲得優質廢鋼的機會以支持我們南部電弧的額外好處爐平軋鋼廠。

  • The metals recycling footprint provides a strategic competitive advantage for our steel mills and our scrap-generating steel customers. We have ample access to ferrous scrap supply, including prime scrap, and believe this will remain the case in the future.

    金屬回收足跡為我們的鋼廠和廢鋼生產客戶提供了策略競爭優勢。我們擁有充足的黑色金屬廢鋼供應,包括優質廢鋼,並相信未來情況仍將如此。

  • The Steel team had an incredible year, achieving record volume and also record earnings of $4.4 billion, which eclipsed previous peaks. During 2021, the domestic steel industry operated at a production utilization rate of 81%, while our steel mills operated at a rate of 91%. We consistently operate at a higher utilization due to our value-add steel product diversification, our differentiated customer supply chain solutions and the support of our internal manufacturing businesses.

    Steel 團隊度過了令人難以置信的一年,實現了創紀錄的銷售和創紀錄的 44 億美元收入,超越了之前的峰值。 2021年,國內鋼鐵業生產利用率為81%,我國鋼廠開工率為91%。由於我們的增值鋼鐵產品多元化、差異化的客戶供應鏈解決方案以及內部製造業務的支持,我們始終保持較高的利用率。

  • As we suggested during our last earnings call, new capacity and moderate import growth is pressured to hot-rolled coil price. Supply side issues have largely been resolved, and lead times are back to manageable levels after ballooning post COVID as manufacturing steel demand recovered much more fruitfully than expected by the industry. Hot-rolled coil pricing has moderated. But contrary to recent alarmist commentary, the magnitude of the price correction is in no way connected to any material [usage] in overall demand.

    正如我們在上次財報電話會議中所建議的那樣,新增產能和溫和的進口成長對熱軋捲價格構成壓力。供應方面的問題已基本解決,由於製造業鋼鐵需求的復甦比行業預期的要有效得多,交貨時間在疫情後激增後已恢復到可管理的水平。熱軋捲價格放緩。但與最近危言聳聽的評論相反,價格調整的幅度與整體需求中的任何材料[使用]沒有任何關係。

  • Inventory levels have certainly normalized to pre COVID levels but are more than appropriate for the present demand environment. December MSCI shipments dropped to approximately 2.4 million tons, but this is consistent with typical seasonality, not an abnormality. Monthly import levels have undergone controlled growth in recent months as the arbitrage expanded. But as anticipated, there's been no surge. The recent hot-rolled coil price declines should effectively eradicate import volume growth in the months ahead. These are natural market adjustments and are not structural changes.

    庫存水準肯定已恢復到新冠疫情爆發前的水平,但足以適應當前的需求環境。 12 月 MSCI 出貨量下降至約 240 萬噸,但這符合典型的季節性,並非異常。隨著套利擴大,近幾個月月度進口水準出現了可控成長。但正如預期的那樣,並沒有激增。最近熱軋捲價格的下跌將有效消除未來幾個月進口量的成長。這些是自然的市場調整,而不是結構性變化。

  • Hot-rolled coil transactions are currently consistent with published index numbers in the range of $1,300 to $1,400 per ton. There are a limited number of large volume spot-hot band offerings that can be procured at lower numbers, but these are not prevalent or reflective of the market in general. One must recognize that the spot hot band market has diminished in size over recent years as contract businesses increased across the industry. Therefore, it's not necessarily a true indicator of the whole market.

    目前熱軋捲交易與公佈的指數一致,在每噸 1,300 美元至 1,400 美元之間。熱帶產品可以以較低數量購買的數量有限,但這些產品並不普遍或不能反映整體市場情況。人們必須認識到,近年來,隨著整個行業合約業務的增加,現貨熱帶市場的規模已經縮小。因此,它不一定是整個市場的真實指標。

  • Current hot-band spot offers are based on import values today, which are quickly drying up as the arbitrage corrects. Traders are reportedly finding it difficult to execute any business for second quarter delivery.

    目前的熱門現貨報價是基於當前的進口價值,隨著套利修正,這些價值正在迅速枯竭。據報道,貿易商發現很難執行第二季的交付業務。

  • Throughout our history, we have intentionally grown our value-added steel product portfolio and created valuable customer supply chain solutions to mitigate the impact of price volatility. Today, over (inaudible) of our steel sales are considered value-add. This differentiated business model will continue to provide best-in-class financial metrics and through-cycle cash generation.

    縱觀我們的歷史,我們有意擴大我們的增值鋼鐵產品組合,並創建有價值的客戶供應鏈解決方案,以減輕價格波動的影響。如今,我們超過(聽不清楚)的鋼材銷售被視為增值。這種差異化的商業模式將繼續提供一流的財務指標和整個週期的現金產生。

  • Looking forward, we remain steadfast in our optimism for 2022. After a short period of seasonally lower steel demand in November and December, our flat-rolled order input rate in January was one of the best months ever. And backlogs are very healthy.

    展望未來,我們對 2022 年仍保持樂觀態度。在 11 月和 12 月鋼材需求出現短暫季節性下降之後,1 月扁鋼訂單輸入率是有史以來最好的月份之一。積壓訂單非常健康。

  • Automotive sector steel consumption should grow year-over-year as the chip shortage eases, fueled by an extreme lack of dealer inventory, which is 60% lower than normal, and strong pent-up demand. The automotive sector operated at production rates lower than normalized levels in '20 and '21, around about 13 million units and is expected to grow to 15 million units this year and 17 million units in 2023.

    由於經銷商庫存極度缺乏(比正常水平低 60%)以及被壓抑的需求強勁,隨著晶片短缺的緩解,汽車行業的鋼材消費量應該會同比增長。汽車業的產量在 20 年和 21 年低於正常水平,約為 1,300 萬輛,預計今年將增至 1,500 萬輛,2023 年將增至 1,700 萬輛。

  • Nonresidential construction sector is strong as evidenced by the strength of shipments and backlogs at our structural and Rail division and steel fabrication businesses.

    非住宅建築業表現強勁,我們的結構和鐵路部門以及鋼鐵製造業務的出貨量和積壓訂單的強勁就證明了這一點。

  • Residential construction has also been robust, resulting in high demand for HVAC material, appliance and other related products. Stronger energy prices are now pushing up the rig count and associated ERW pipe production.

    住宅建設也很強勁,導致對暖通空調材料、電器和其他相關產品的需求很高。能源價格上漲正在推高鑽機數量和相關的 ERW 管產量。

  • In aggregate, our steel backlogs and our order input strength, coupled with broad optimistic customer commentary and general market momentum, drive us to conclude that steel market dynamics will remain strong through 2022. We anticipate steel demand increasing year-over-year and with a likely retraction of import volumes possibly a moderate rebound in pricing.

    總體而言,我們的鋼鐵積壓和訂單輸入強度,加上廣泛樂觀的客戶評論和整體市場勢頭,促使我們得出結論,鋼鐵市場動態將在 2022 年保持強勁。我們預計鋼鐵需求將逐年增長,並且進口量可能會減少,價格可能會溫和反彈。

  • Steel Dynamics is a dynamic growth company, increasing through-cycle earnings and cash flow to support continuous value creation. Our new Sinton, Texas flat roll steel mill represents our most significant investment to date, providing the avenue for transformational growth and opportunity for ourselves and our customers. This differentiated investment facilitates significant through-cycle operational and financial growth for all of our stakeholders, from our teams and customers, to our vendors and shareholders. This EAF steel mill represents next-generation, lower carbon emitting steel production capabilities, providing differentiated products and supply chain solutions.

    Steel Dynamics 是一家充滿活力的成長型公司,不斷增加整個週期的收益和現金流,以支持持續的價值創造。我們位於德州辛頓的新扁鋼廠是我們迄今為止最重要的投資,為我們自己和客戶提供轉型成長的途徑和機會。這種差異化的投資促進了我們所有利害關係人(從我們的團隊和客戶到我們的供應商和股東)的顯著的全週期營運和財務成長。該電弧爐鋼廠代表了下一代低碳排放鋼鐵生產能力,提供差異化產品和供應鏈解決方案。

  • The 3 million tons state-of-the-art facility is designed to have product capabilities beyond that of any existing electric arc furnace flat-rolled steel producer, competing even more effectively with higher carbon emitting, integrated steel facilities and high carbon, strong competition. It provides us with a more diverse steel product portfolio and benefits our customers with an even broader climate-conscious supply option.

    這座年產能 300 萬噸的最先進設施的設計,其產品能力超越任何現有的電弧爐平軋鋼生產商,與碳排放較高的綜合鋼鐵設施和高碳、強勁的競爭更加有效。它為我們提供了更加多樣化的鋼鐵產品組合,並透過更廣泛的氣候意識供應選擇使我們的客戶受益。

  • The Sinton construction team has experienced numerous challenges related to supply chain disruptions and COVID impacts. These challenges resulted in hot-side production shifting from the end of 2021 to a class start before the end of February 22. The Sinton group navigated through the challenges as well, and we are on the verge of seeing the significant benefits this facility will generate. Sinton's strategic location is centralized in an underserved steel consumer region and represents over 27 million tons of relevant flat roll steel consumption in the U.S. and Mexico. These customers are excited to have a freight advantaged regional flat roll steel supplier. We have 6 customers committed to locate on our site, representing up to 1.8 million tons of annual flat-rolled steel processing and consumption capability. Five of these customers have already broken ground.

    Sinton 施工團隊經歷了許多與供應鏈中斷和新冠疫情影響相關的挑戰。這些挑戰導致熱側生產從 2021 年底轉移到 2 月 22 年底之前開始上課。SAPton 集團也克服了這些挑戰,我們即將看到該設施將產生的重大效益。 Sinton 的戰略位置集中在服務水準較低的鋼鐵消費地區,代表著美國和墨西哥超過 2,700 萬噸的相關扁鋼消費量。這些客戶很高興擁有貨運優勢的區域扁鋼供應商。我們已簽約客戶 6 家,年扁鋼加工和消費量達 180 萬噸。其中五個客戶已經破土動工。

  • We can offer shorter delivery times, providing a superior customer supply chain solution to the region. We will also effectively compete with steel imports arriving in Houston and the West Coast, benefiting our customers in these areas with lower logistics costs, removing risks associated with ocean transit, quality and delivery. We have also made considerable progress in sending our raw material procurement strategy to the mill. As I mentioned, the acquisition of a Mexican metals recycling company is a critical source of prime scrap supply. They are strategically located near high-volume industrial scrap sources throughout Central and Northern Mexico and have already done a great job growing volume with a lot more to come.

    我們可以提供更短的交貨時間,為該地區提供卓越的客戶供應鏈解決方案。我們也將有效地與到達休士頓和西海岸的進口鋼材競爭,以更低的物流成本使這些地區的客戶受益,消除與海運、品質和交付相關的風險。我們在向工廠發送原材料採購策略方面也取得了相當大的進展。正如我所提到的,收購一家墨西哥金屬回收公司是優質廢鋼供應的重要來源。它們戰略性地位於墨西哥中部和北部的大量工業廢料來源附近,並且已經在增加產量方面取得了巨大的成就,並且未來還會有更多。

  • Sinton is not simply adding flat-rolled steel production capacity. We have a differentiated product offering, a unique regional supply chain solution, a significant geographic freight and lead time advantage and offer a sustainable alternative to imports in region in need of options.

    Sinton並不是簡單地增加扁鋼產能。我們擁有差異化的產品供應、獨特的區域供應鏈解決方案、顯著的地理貨運和交貨時間優勢,並為需要選擇的地區提供可持續的進口替代品。

  • We're also going to build 4 additional value-added flat-rolled coating lines comprised of 2 new paint lines and 2 new galvanizing lines with Galvalume coating capability. Our unique value-added coated supply chain strategy has resulted in our existing lines consistently running at or near full capacity. Our existing customers are anxiously waiting the volume from these new lines.

    我們還將建造 4 條額外的增值平軋塗裝線,其中包括 2 條新的塗裝線和 2 條具有鍍鋁鋅塗層能力的新鍍鋅線。我們獨特的增值塗層供應鏈策略使我們現有的生產線始終以滿載或接近滿載運行。我們現有的客戶正在焦急地等待這些新產品線的銷售量。

  • One galvanizing line and one paint line will be located on site of Sinton, while the other 2 lines will be placed at our Heartland Flat Roll division located in Terre Haute, Indiana. Each site will increase flat-rolled capacity by 540,000 tons to further support our regional flat-rolled steel operations, providing them a more value-added product diversification to serve our customers. We expect these lines will begin operating in mid-2023.

    一條鍍鋅生產線和一條噴漆生產線將位於 Sinton,另外 2 條生產線將位於位於印第安納州特雷霍特的 Heartland Flat Roll 部門。每個工廠將增加54萬噸扁鋼產能,以進一步支援我們的區域扁鋼業務,為他們提供更具附加價值的多元化產品,以服務我們的客戶。我們預計這些線路將於 2023 年中期開始營運。

  • In closing, our unique culture and the execution of our long-term growth and capital allocation strategy continues to strengthen our financial position through strong cash flow generation and long-term value creation. Our sustainable, symbiotic operating platforms and customer-centric supply solutions demonstrate our financial and operating stability differentiating us from any competition. We're excited to continue our growth with new value-creating opportunities.

    最後,我們獨特的文化以及長期成長和資本配置策略的執行,透過強勁的現金流生成和長期價值創造,繼續增強我們的財務狀況。我們可持續、共生的營運平台和以客戶為中心的供應解決方案證明了我們的財務和營運穩定性,使我們在競爭中脫穎而出。我們很高興能夠透過新的價值創造機會繼續發展。

  • Our people and the spirit of excellence provides the foundation for our success. I thank each of you for your passion and dedication and remind you that safety is always our most critical priority.

    我們的員工和卓越精神為我們的成功奠定了基礎。我感謝你們每個人的熱情和奉獻精神,並提醒你們,安全始終是我們最重要的優先事項。

  • So everyone, thank you for joining us today. And Kate, will you please open the line for questions?

    謝謝大家今天加入我們。凱特,請打開提問線好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from Michael Glick at JPMorgan Securities.

    (操作員指示)我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通證券的邁克爾·格利克(Michael Glick)。

  • Michael Adam Glick - Senior Analyst

    Michael Adam Glick - Senior Analyst

  • In your fabrication segment, could you give us a bit more color about how we should think about the trajectories of both pricing and margins moving through the year? Any ranges there would be helpful.

    在你們的製造領域,你能否給我們更多的信息,告訴我們我們應該如何思考全年定價和利潤的變化軌跡?那裡的任何範圍都會有幫助。

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • Michael, so I think on the last quarter call, we mentioned that we have firm expectations that the fabrication business is going to earn more earnings in the first half of 2022 than in the second half of 2021. We believe even more firmly in that. So as I mentioned in my remark, there is an expectation that we see another improvement in the first quarter and in the second quarter as well based on the backlog. So there's more visibility in fabrication because the backlog is still lengthy but also because of the pricing that we're seeing that we're able to achieve as demand remains incredibly strong.

    邁克爾,我認為在上個季度的電話會議上,我們提到我們堅信製造業務將在 2022 年上半年獲得比 2021 年下半年更多的收益。我們對此更加堅定。正如我在評論中提到的,根據積壓情況,預計我們會在第一季和第二季看到另一個改善。因此,製造方面的可見度更高,因為積壓訂單仍然很長,而且因為我們看到,隨著需求仍然非常強勁,我們能夠實現的定價。

  • So as far as specifics, it's hard to give specifics. I will just tell you that first quarter will definitely be, I think, meaningfully higher than what we saw in the fourth quarter and, again, another step function increase in the second quarter as well.

    因此,就具體情況而言,很難給出具體資訊。我只想告訴你,我認為第一季肯定會明顯高於我們在第四季度看到的水平,第二季也會再次出現階梯式成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Emily Chieng at Goldman Sachs.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。

  • Emily Christine Chieng - Associate

    Emily Christine Chieng - Associate

  • My question is just around growth. Now that Sinton is coming towards the end there, and you've got a couple of coating lines and galv lines in the hot band, how do you think about other greenfield growth potential in your portfolio, particularly as it relates to the Rebar segment? Do you have a view as to whether or not you need to see further capacity growth in the long product side from Steel Dynamics?

    我的問題只是關於成長。現在 Sinton 即將結束,並且您在熱軋帶中擁有幾條塗層生產線和鍍鋅生產線,您如何看待您的投資組合中的其他綠地增長潛力,特別是與螺紋鋼領域相關的成長潛力?您是否認為是否需要看到 Steel Dynamics 的長材產品產能進一步成長?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, thank you, Emily, for your question. I think the -- we will continue to, I think, demonstrate our sort of organic growth opportunities. In all honesty, Rebar is not a focus of ours. It certainly has given us diversification in our Structural and Rail division and Roanoke Bar Division, and we'll flex that as markets go up and down. But that rebar is not a target, so to speak, of any major growth.

    嗯,謝謝艾米莉的提問。我認為,我們將繼續展示我們的有機成長機會。老實說,螺紋鋼不是我們關注的焦點。這無疑使我們的結構和鐵路部門以及羅阿諾克酒吧部門實現了多元化,隨著市場的漲跌,我們將靈活調整這一點。但可以說,螺紋鋼並不是任何重大成長的目標。

  • As we will continue to grow in the value-added business, obviously, I think we've demonstrated that the strategic path has been very intentional and very, very profitable for us. And more importantly, it allows us that diversity of product mix to sustain higher utilization levels through the cycle. So I think that there's still opportunity to further value-add processing on the flat roll side of things.

    顯然,隨著我們將繼續在增值業務上成長,我認為我們已經證明了這條策略路徑是非常有意的,並且對我們來說非常非常有利可圖。更重要的是,它使我們能夠透過產品組合的多樣性在整個週期中維持更高的利用率水準。因此,我認為仍然有機會在平卷方面進行進一步的增值加工。

  • Additionally, though, it's an intriguing marketplace out there, and we're seeing a pipeline that is full of transactional opportunities today as well.

    此外,這是一個有趣的市場,我們今天也看到了一個充滿交易機會的管道。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Timna Tanners at Wolfe Research.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

  • Timna Beth Tanners - Analyst

    Timna Beth Tanners - Analyst

  • I want to ask a little bit more about what you're seeing in the first quarter in terms of volumes. Clearly, the softer spot market that prevailed as you mentioned in the fourth quarter with some of the lighter volumes has spilled over a bit to the first quarter and wondering any early thoughts about what that could mean for shipments quarter-over-quarter. Any thoughts on what's driving that and what might cause that to stabilize?

    我想多詢問一下您在第一季看到的銷量情況。顯然,正如您在第四季度提到的那樣,現貨市場普遍疲軟,成交量有所減少,這一情況已經蔓延到第一季度,並想知道這對季度環比出貨量意味著什麼。對於是什麼推動了這一趨勢以及什麼可能導致其穩定有什麼想法嗎?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, I think we certainly saw the seasonality. And as I said earlier that there is one headline that MSCI shoots were down 17% compared to August and December. Well, if you look at it each year in history, it always does that. And it's just -- the seasonal adjustment is going to sort of disappear in the fourth quarter -- I mean first quarter here. The shipping volumes we would anticipate will increase accordingly.

    嗯,我認為我們確實看到了季節性。正如我之前所說,有一個標題稱 MSCI 指數與 8 月和 12 月相比下降了 17%。好吧,如果你回顧一下歷史上的每一年,你會發現它總是這樣。只是 - 季節性調整將在第四季度消失 - 我指的是第一季。我們預計運輸量將相應增加。

  • Timna Beth Tanners - Analyst

    Timna Beth Tanners - Analyst

  • Do you expect normal increase from the fourth quarter to the first quarter in your shipping volumes across the board?

    您預計第四季到第一季你們的貨運量會全面正常成長嗎?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Pretty much, yes. Again, we're not seeing -- people, I think, are relating a little bit of pricing softness here with demand. And as I stated earlier, demand is through our lens is incredibly strong and will remain so throughout the year.

    差不多,是的。同樣,我們沒有看到——我認為,人們將這裡的定價疲軟與需求聯繫起來。正如我之前所說,透過我們的視角,需求非常強勁,並且全年都將如此。

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • The only -- I would add just to that, Timna, that we actually experienced at the end of the fourth quarter some logistics issues as well, like I'm sure people are experiencing outside the steel industry as well as trucking and rail, and things have been disrupted. So there were shipments that we expected to actually deliver in December that we're not able to be delivered. So it's more of a timing issue. So that's going to benefit the first quarter as well.

    唯一的 - 我想補充一點,蒂姆納,我們實際上在第四季度末也經歷了一些物流問題,就像我確信人們在鋼鐵行業以及卡車運輸和鐵路之外遇到的問題一樣,事情被打亂了。因此,我們原本預計 12 月實際交付的貨物卻無法交付。所以這更多的是一個時間問題。因此,這也將使第一季受益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Seth Rosenfeld at Exane BNP Paribas.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Seth Rosenfeld。

  • Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst

    Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst

  • If I can follow up, please, with the outlook for free cash flow and in particular the role of working capital. Obviously, the last year, in particular, Q4, saw a lot of investments in working capital. There were some delays of Sinton ramp-up. Wondering if that was one reason particularly elevated investments in Q4. And with that in mind, can you give us a bit of color on expectations, [growth approximately] in Q1 and for the year ahead? Is it reasonable to assume that with Sinton ramp-up a slightly decline in ASPs for sheet, we could expect a meaningful working capital release?

    請我跟進自由現金流的前景,特別是營運資金的作用。顯然,去年,特別是第四季度,營運資本方面進行了大量投資。 Sinton 的產能啟動出現了一些延遲。想知道這是否是第四季投資特別增加的原因之一。考慮到這一點,您能給我們一些關於第一季度和未來一年的預期[大約成長]的資訊嗎?是否可以合理地假設,隨著 Sinton 的提高,板材平均售價略有下降,我們可以預期會釋放有意義的營運資金?

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • Seth, thanks for the question. So yes, working capital, we did see significant growth during 2021, most of which is associated with the value growth in our steel products and in the increased volume and product pricing growth in our fabrications business.

    賽斯,謝謝你的提問。所以,是的,營運資本在 2021 年確實出現了顯著增長,其中大部分與我們鋼鐵產品的價值增長以及我們製造業務的產量增加和產品定價增長有關。

  • Sinton, at the end of the year, had about $150 million of working capital, and we would expect to see that grow by probably $150 million during 2022 during the first half of the year. So there's still some structural growth attached to that. But otherwise, as we see product pricing, fees and we see the strength in volumes, we would expect to see valuations come down, which should have a pretty significant working capital release during the entirety of the year. You might not see as much of it in the first half, but definitely in the second half of the year.

    截至年底,Sinton 擁有約 1.5 億美元的營運資金,我們預計 2022 年上半年營運資金將成長 1.5 億美元。因此,這仍然存在一些結構性增長。但除此之外,當我們看到產品定價、費用以及銷售的強勁時,我們預計估值會下降,這應該會在全年釋放相當大的營運資金。上半年你可能看不到那麼多,但下半年一定會看到。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Andreas Bokkenheuser at UBS.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Andreas Bokkenheuser。

  • Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst

    Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst

  • Just a question on inflation. I mean, obviously, it's a bit of an inflationary environment. How are you kind of thinking about inflation this year? Is there anything you kind of got on the table that can kind of mitigate inflation and looking at energy, even scrap? I mean, you've already integrated some scrap yards. Are there -- is there room for more scrap yard integration and acquisition there? That's the question on inflation.

    只是關於通貨膨脹的問題。我的意思是,顯然,這是一個有點通膨的環境。您如何看待今年的通膨?您是否提出了任何可以緩解通貨膨脹並關注能源(甚至廢鋼)的方案?我的意思是,你已經整合了一些廢料場。那裡是否有更多廢料場整合和收購的空間?這就是通貨膨脹的問題。

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, I think the -- we can't speak to the overall impact of inflation on the domestic economy. But relative to SDI, I think we're not impacted dramatically. Obviously, scrap will react to the marketplace. But from a cost of sort of conversion, we're relatively under control. We have been impacted a little by our cost, and we've been impacted by the zinc cost over the last 12, 18 months moving up, but most of which is passed through (inaudible). The hourly cost, which sell is higher at our Engineered Bar division than any other mill, again, that tends to be passed through to the customers. So we're not seeing a massive inflationary impact to our cost structure.

    嗯,我認為——我們無法談論通貨膨脹對國內經濟的整體影響。但相對於 SDI,我認為我們沒有受到太大影響。顯然,廢鋼會對市場做出反應。但從某種轉換成本來看,我們相對處於控制之中。我們受到了成本的一點影響,並且過去 12、18 個月中鋅成本上漲對我們產生了影響,但其中大部分都被轉移了(聽不清楚)。我們的工程棒材部門的每小時銷售成本高於任何其他工廠,同樣,這往往會轉嫁到客戶身上。因此,我們沒有看到通貨膨脹對我們的成本結構產生巨大影響。

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • I would add -- and Andreas, I know you know this. As it relates to wages where a lot of people are seeing a really significant increase, because we have so much of our compensation across the entire team that's performance-based, and it naturally fluctuates. So we're not seeing the same pressure from a wage perspective because there's so much of the performance bonus compensation that's structurally in place. So I think Mark said it perfectly that we're not seeing a lot of pressure with items that are passed through to the customer.

    我想補充一點——安德烈亞斯,我知道你知道這一點。因為這與薪資有關,許多人看到了真正顯著的成長,因為我們整個團隊的薪酬中有很大一部分是基於績效的,而且它自然會波動。因此,從薪資角度來看,我們沒有看到同樣的壓力,因為結構上有許多績效獎金。所以我認為馬克說得很清楚,我們沒有看到傳遞給客戶的物品有很大的壓力。

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • And then one additional comment -- I said, one additional comment, I think we may have made this same comment in the last call. But as you reflect on our results, it's amazing, how the teams throughout our organization just continue to break productivity records. And as such, over the years, we've found our conversion costs actually incredibly stable or consistent, given that the additional volume reduces our fixed cost, our overhead costs, which sort of absorbs any additional sort of inflationary pricing on alloys and those sorts of things.

    然後是一個額外的評論——我說,一個額外的評論,我想我們可能在上次通話中發表了同樣的評論。但當您反思我們的結果時,您會發現我們整個組織的團隊如何不斷打破生產力記錄,這真是令人驚訝。因此,多年來,我們發現我們的轉換成本實際上非常穩定或一致,因為額外的產量降低了我們的固定成本和管理成本,這在某種程度上吸收了合金等類型的任何額外的通膨定價東西的。

  • So through -- it's amazing, we just did a study, to be honest, with our Board last November. It's absolutely amazing how our conversion costs remain very, very, very stable through the cycle.

    因此,說實話,去年 11 月我們剛剛與董事會進行了一項研究,這真是太棒了。令人驚訝的是我們的轉換成本在整個週期中保持非常非常穩定。

  • Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst

    Andreas Bokkenheuser - Executive Director, Head of LatAm Mining & Basic Materials and Research Analyst

  • Your performance-based structure is a good point.

    基於績效的結構是一個很好的觀點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Curt Woodworth at Credit Suisse.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的科特·伍德沃斯。

  • Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst

    Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst

  • First question is just with regards to the Sinton ramp-up. I was wondering if you could help us understand sort of the cadence of volume growth in the next couple of quarters and what level of start-up costs we should expect. And then you noted, I think, $1.8 million of on-site captive supply. When would you expect that to be fully functional?

    第一個問題是關於 Sinton 的升級。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解未來幾季銷售成長的節奏以及我們應該預期的啟動成本水準。然後你注意到,我想,180 萬美元的現場自備供應。您預計什麼時候才能完全發揮作用?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, obviously, we are anticipating the final piece of the jigsaw to be put in place here in the next few days, if not the next week or so, so that the actual specific ramp over the next 3 months is difficult to predict. But we feel we should demonstrate our performance no less than others signing up the mills here in the last 5, 10 years. So we would anticipate at least 2 million tons of shipments this year, reaching capacity -- essential capacity in the late third quarter, fourth -- probably fourth quarter.

    嗯,顯然,我們預計拼圖的最後一塊將在未來幾天內到位,如果不是下週左右的話,因此很難預測未來 3 個月的實際具體增長。但我們覺得我們應該展示我們的表現,不亞於過去五、十年來在這裡簽約的其他工廠。因此,我們預計今年至少有 200 萬噸的出貨量,達到產能——第三季末、第四季——可能是第四季的基本產能。

  • Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst

    Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then in terms of the on-site supply, when would you expect that to be at that consumption rate?

    好的。那麼就現場供應而言,您預期什麼時候會達到這樣的消耗率?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, I think the -- it will come on in concert with our mill, in all honesty. We have one facility that's actually operating currently. There is one very large facility that will be operational in the next couple of months, but it's -- I'm not saying it was totally intentional. But by -- look, if nothing else, those facilities are going to ramp up nicely in concert with the steel mill.

    嗯,老實說,我認為它將與我們的工廠協調一致。我們目前擁有一處實際運作的設施。有一個非常大的設施將在未來幾個月內投入運行,但我並不是說這完全是故意的。但是,看看,如果不出意外的話,這些設施將與鋼廠一起很好地發展。

  • On the value-add side, we -- I think we've suggested in the past, the paint line, coating line is doing extremely well. The Galvalume capability comes online here, I think, in a couple of weeks. The finishing facilities performed extremely well. The hot strip mill is essentially commissioned. We bought slabs from third parties, and we also transferred intermediate slabs from our own facilities, took them down sort of preheated them in the tunnel furnace and have driven them through the mill quite successfully. So a lot of the parts are in great, great shape, but just waiting on the caster.

    在增值方面,我們——我想我們過去已經建議過,油漆生產線、塗裝生產線做得非常好。我認為,Galvalume 功能將在幾週內上線。精加工設備表現非常優異。熱帶鋼軋機已基本投入運作。我們從第三方購買了板坯,我們還從我們自己的工廠轉移了中間板坯,將它們取下來在隧道爐中預熱,然後非常成功地將它們送入軋機。所以很多零件都處於非常非常好的狀態,但只是等待腳輪。

  • Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst

    Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then my follow-up is just maybe get a little bit more color on sort of market dynamics last few months. I mean, it seems like between COVID, seasonality, destocking, rising supply, there's a lot of moving pieces here. And it seems like you're indicating that your January order book definitely strengthened relative to November and December. I think you had a comment that you said that inventories were normal, but some service centers saying they've got way too much, others don't. So I'm just curious, is your sense that the inventory level in the industry is generally getting rightsized pretty quickly at this point? And then in terms of sort of the volume trends you saw in the fourth quarter, was it more concentrated on, say, the service center side of your business or on the OEM side?

    好的。然後我的後續行動可能只是對過去幾個月的市場動態有更多的了解。我的意思是,在新冠疫情、季節性、去庫存、供應增加之間,似乎有很多變化。您似乎表明,相對於 11 月和 12 月,您 1 月的訂單量肯定有所增加。我想你有評論說庫存是正常的,但有些服務中心說他們的庫存太多,有些則不然。所以我很好奇,您是否認為目前行業庫存水準通常很快就會得到調整?然後就您在第四季度看到的銷售趨勢而言,是否更集中於您業務的服務中心方面或 OEM 方面?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • I think when I say inventories have normalized, I'm just going by history. I mean, it's quite simple, if you look at the last 5 or 6 years for sure, but you go back in time longer than that, levels are appropriate. And have they grown? Absolutely. So they grew from an absolute historic low. And as I indicated, our belief is that they are appropriate for the sort of demand cycle that we're going through.

    我認為當我說庫存已經正常化時,我只是在遵循歷史。我的意思是,這很簡單,如果你確實看看過去的 5 或 6 年,但你回溯到比這更長的時間,水平是合適的。他們長大了嗎?絕對地。因此,它們是從絕對的歷史低點增長的。正如我所指出的,我們相信它們適合我們正在經歷的需求週期。

  • The -- so a little bit of a lull, I do believe. And you've got to live through a few of these cycles in the past, and our team is fortunate to have that experience. But you hit COVID, the whole industry going through a halt. Things started up much more rapidly. And there's chaos there, absolutely, in the industry, including ourselves, to some degree to catch up.

    我確實相信,有點平靜。你過去必須經歷一些這樣的週期,我們的團隊很幸運有這樣的經驗。但當你遇到新冠疫情時,整個產業都陷入了停滯。事情開始得更快了。整個產業(包括我們自己)絕對存在混亂,在某種程度上需要迎頭趕上。

  • And then when you catch up, what happens? Well, our industry is not perfect. And in general, it overshoots a little bit. And in November, December, you saw things catching up. And all of a sudden, people are getting their supply simultaneously from 2 to 3 mills. So you get that little overshoot, which I think was seen in November, December. So those in the automotive space, probably, saw it more than most. And so you had that softness particularly in hot band, it's up. That will resolve itself.

    然後當你追上時,會發生什麼事?嗯,我們的產業並不完美。一般來說,它有點過衝。在 11 月、12 月,你會發現事情正在迎頭趕上。突然之間,人們可以同時從 2 到 3 家工廠獲得供應。所以你會得到一點超調,我認為這是在 11 月、12 月出現的。因此,汽車領域的人可能比大多數人都更了解這一點。所以你有那種柔軟度,特別是在熱帶中,它上升了。這會自行解決。

  • As I said earlier, we don't see any change in the underlying consumption of steel currently and nor do we see that happening over the months and quarters ahead. You just have a little kind of a spike of supply that came through, given the seasonality. But again, we're incredibly optimistic for 2022.

    正如我之前所說,我們目前認為鋼鐵的基本消費沒有任何變化,而且我們也認為未來幾個月和幾季不會發生這種情況。考慮到季節性因素,供應量略有增加。但我們再次對 2022 年感到非常樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Carlos De Alba at Morgan Stanley.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

  • Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

    Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst

  • And just I guess following up on the last point. So how should we reconcile then, Mark, the fact that the lead times in the industry, the information that is currently available, have continued to come down? But you -- as you said, you are extremely constructive on how your order book is looking like and demand expectations. Is it -- is this just a supply that you mentioned that picked up in recent months and is going to now be absorbed by demand? Or is it that steel Dynamics is gaining market share versus competitors, and therefore, what you're seeing may be different to what the industry statistics that we have access to?

    我想是在跟進最後一點。那麼,馬克,我們應該如何協調行業交貨時間以及當前可用資訊持續下降的事實?但是,正如您所說,您對訂單簿的外觀和要求的期望非常有建設性。這是否只是您提到的供應量在近幾個月有所增加,現在將被需求所吸收?或者是 Steel Dynamics 相對於競爭對手正在獲得市場份額,因此您所看到的可能與我們獲得的行業統計數據有所不同?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, I think we're certainly seeing market share in certain markets. We've certainly gained a dramatic traction in the automotive sphere, for instance. Unfortunately, that traction was with the automotive producers that weren't as impacted by the chip shortages, maybe the U.S. domestic producers. So yes, we are gaining sort of incremental market share there.

    嗯,我認為我們肯定會在某些市場上看到市場份額。例如,我們在汽車領域確實獲得了巨大的吸引力。不幸的是,這種吸引力來自那些沒有受到晶片短缺影響的汽車生產商,也許是美國國內生產商。所以,是的,我們正在那裡獲得一定程度的增量市場份額。

  • Again, we have phenomenally sort of supportive loyal customers that in -- whether there are times like this will support us and bring their orders to us. Our overall business model, though, again, with a diverse product portfolio that we have, that we have differentiated supply chain solutions in our coated and prepaint business is just different, and it provides phenomenal value for the customer. And those businesses remain strong. And we think that the coated value-add market in general is going to remain very, very, very solid going forward. All you have is a little bit of seasonality, sort of catch-up moment in hot band, which pressured spot price.

    同樣,我們擁有非常支持我們的忠實客戶,無論是否有這樣的時刻,他們都會支持我們並將他們的訂單交給我們。不過,我們的整體業務模式再次具有多樣化的產品組合,我們在塗層和預塗漆業務中擁有差異化的供應鏈解決方案,這是不同的,它為客戶提供了驚人的價值。這些業務依然強勁。我們認為,塗層增值市場將整體維持非常非常穩定的發展。你所擁有的只是一點季節性,有點像熱門樂團的追趕時刻,這對現貨價格造成了壓力。

  • If you can envision and I envision that the import volumes that picked up in the last 3 or 4 months because of a massive arbitrage growth, if you envision that, that can moderate, which I think is the arbitrage is shrinking, and as we listen to traders out there, having difficulty sustaining business for late second quarter of this year, if the imports do fall off a little, you're going to get demand pressure again. And it wouldn't be unexpected on our part, if you saw a little rebound in pricing.

    如果你能預見到,我也預見到,由於套利的大幅增長,進口量在過去3 或4 個月內會有所回升,如果你能預見到這一點,那麼進口量將會放緩,我認為這是套利正在萎縮,正如我們所聽到的對於今年第二季末難以維持業務的貿易商來說,如果進口確實略有下降,您將再次面臨需求壓力。如果您看到價格出現小幅反彈,這對我們來說並不令人意外。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from David Gagliano at BMO Capital Markets.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 David Gagliano。

  • David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst

    David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst

  • I'll just ask a couple of quick ones here. Just on the commentary around 85% of flat roll lagged pricing in the fourth quarter. Can you just give us a sense so we can tighten up the models a little bit for first quarter? What was that average lag duration wise? And is that -- are those reasonable proxies for the first quarter as well?

    我在這裡只是簡單地問幾個問題。就評論而言,第四季約 85% 的平卷定價落後。您能否給我們一個感覺,以便我們可以在第一季稍微收緊模型?平均滯後持續時間是多少?第一季的這些指標也是合理的嗎?

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • Yes. The contract business, Dave, in the fourth quarter was that 80% to 85%, and it's likely to stay in that range at least through the first half of the year as we're servicing our contract customers. And then as Sinton comes online more strongly in the second half of the year, that's naturally going to decline to a certain degree because of the shift in mix. But we're expecting that to be maintained.

    是的。戴夫,第四季度的合約業務是 80% 到 85%,而且在我們為合約客戶提供服務時,至少在今年上半年可能會保持在這個範圍內。然後,隨著下半年 Sinton 的上線更加強勁,由於組合的轉變,這一數字自然會在一定程度上下降。但我們希望這一點能夠維持下去。

  • As it relates to the lag, it's really about, on average, a 2-month lag on the flat roll pricing, and it's generally tied to the CRU Index.

    由於它與滯後有關,平卷定價實際上平均有 2 個月的滯後,並且通常與 CRU 指數相關。

  • David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst

    David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst

  • Okay. And that's a reasonable proxy for the first quarter as well, 2 months lag?

    好的。這也是第一季的合理指標,落後兩個月?

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • Yes. Correct.

    是的。正確的。

  • David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst

    David Francis Gagliano - Co-Head of Metals & Mining Research and Metals & Mining Analyst

  • Okay. Perfect. And then just last question for me. The CapEx went up a little bit, 700 prior guide to 750. What was the reason behind that?

    好的。完美的。然後是我的最後一個問題。資本支出略有上升,從之前的 700 上升到 750。背後的原因是什麼?

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • Well, it is simply that we went through the extensive study that we do every year, and that generally takes place in the November time frame. So we approved additional projects. And those projects as kind of attested to by our return on invested capital metrics are really efficiency and growth-oriented, but they're just smaller in nature. So there's nothing individually to call out for the reasons to increase. They're just some really nice projects came to light.

    嗯,很簡單,我們每年都會進行廣泛的研究,並且通常在 11 月的時間範圍內進行。因此我們批准了額外的項目。我們的投資資本回報率指標證明了這些項目確實是高效且以成長為導向的,但它們本質上只是規模較小。因此,沒有什麼可以單獨指出增加的原因。它們只是一些非常好的項目被曝光。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Phil Gibbs at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Phil Gibbs。

  • Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • Theresa, can you provide the sheet shipments by product grade?

    Theresa,您能提供以產品等級劃分的板材出貨量嗎?

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • I can, and I apologize. I'm smiling because I did miss that. The hot band and P&O shipments for the fourth quarter were 693,000 tons. Cold rolled was 136,000 tons. And finally, the coated products were 994,000 tons.

    我可以,我道歉。我微笑著,因為我確實錯過了。第四季熱軋帶鋼和P&O出貨量為69.3萬噸。冷軋13.6萬噸。最終,塗裝產品99.4萬噸。

  • Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • Perfect. And then I remember last quarter, you had -- Mark, I think you had talked about yellow goods having a decent outlook, and we obviously know your feelings on automotive. What's the future look like in your opinion for SBQ this year and Engineered Bar?

    完美的。然後我記得上個季度,你——馬克,我認為你談到了黃色商品的前景不錯,我們顯然知道你對汽車的感受。您認為今年 SBQ 和 Engineered Bar 的未來會是什麼樣子?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • I think for Engineered Bar is relatively steady. I think we'll gain some volume as automotive picks up is again 15%, 20% for auto with Engineered Bar, I do believe. So they're going to gain on the automotive side. They are going to lose a little bit of volume, not much. As hot band has come off, folks are switching from seamless pipe over to ERW pipe. And so there was a little bit of volume there. For us, though, generally, that's going to benefit. We're already seeing the benefit then in Columbus, to be honest, as we're picking up energy orders there in one large mill -- pipe mill is starting back up.

    我認為Engineered Bar相對穩定。我認為,隨著汽車銷量再次回升 15%,帶有 Engineered Bar 的汽車銷量將增加 20%,我確實相信。因此他們將在汽車領域獲益。他們的銷售量將會損失一點點,但不會太多。隨著熱軋帶的脫落,人們正在從無縫管轉向 ERW 管。所以那裡有一點音量。不過,對我們來說,一般來說,這都會受益。說實話,我們已經在哥倫布看到了好處,因為我們正在那裡的一家大型工廠接到能源訂單——管道工廠正在恢復生產。

  • Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Philip Ross Gibbs - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • Can you talk about those dynamics a little bit more on the energy side in terms of the switch that it have to do with the trade case that was filed?

    您能否多談談能源方面的這些動態,即與提交的貿易案件有關的轉變?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • It's -- from our understanding, it's more just a cost issue, taking a slug -- Engineered Bar slug and piercing it and producing seamless pipe is more expensive today now that hot band has come off. And so people are switching to the ERW.

    根據我們的理解,這更多的是一個成本問題,採用工程棒料,將其刺穿,生產無縫管的成本更高,因為熱帶已經脫落。因此人們開始轉向戰爭遺留爆炸物。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from Andrew Cosgrove at Bloomberg Intelligence.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自彭博資訊的安德魯·科斯格羅夫。

  • Andrew Cosgrove - Senior Analyst

    Andrew Cosgrove - Senior Analyst

  • I know you said conversion cost have been kept in check and the team has done a pretty good job. I was just a little bit curious as to, if you take the raw material spread and then the excess on top of that. It looks like it ticked up 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter. I was just curious if that had anything to do with having to buy more hot band because Sinton was not up and running and the finishing lines were or anything else that you could add on that particular front?

    我知道你說過轉換成本已經得到控制,團隊做得非常好。我只是有點好奇,如果你考慮原料的傳播,然後再考慮多餘的部分。看起來季度環比上漲了 10% 到 15%。我只是很好奇這是否與必須購買更多熱帶有關,因為辛頓沒有啟動並運行,並且終點線是或您可以在該特定方面添加的任何其他內容?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Great question. And yes, the -- as I indicated earlier, the conversion costs are under control is actually through our lines, specifically. But as our conversion businesses -- and today, one has to remember, we're purchasing [increase of] 1.7 million, 1.8 million tons of substrate from others to support our -- The Techs in Pittsburgh. We buy from third parties for our New Millennium fabrication business. You've got U.S. steel supply. You have Heartland facility. So yes, the added substrate or the substrate costs moving through does impact the perceived conversion.

    很好的問題。是的,正如我之前指出的,轉換成本實際上是透過我們的生產線來控制的。但作為我們的轉換業務,今天,人們必須記住,我們正在從其他公司購買[增加] 170 萬、180 萬噸基材,以支持我們的匹茲堡科技公司。我們從第三方購買新千年的製造業務。你有美國的鋼鐵供應。你有中心地帶設施。所以,是的,添加的基材或移動的基材成本確實會影響感知的轉換。

  • Andrew Cosgrove - Senior Analyst

    Andrew Cosgrove - Senior Analyst

  • Right. Okay. And then just lastly, could you just give us a little bit of an idea how much it costs to move things geographically, say, from the Gulf up to the Midwest or from where you guys are situated at in the middle of the country to the western part? And then, I guess, along the same lines would be, are you still planning on sending 30% of Sinton's shipments to Mexico?

    正確的。好的。最後,您能否告訴我們將物品在地理上移動(例如,從海灣到中西部,或從您所在的國家中部的地方到美國)需要多少費用?西部部分?然後,我想,同樣的思路是,您是否仍計劃將 Sinton 30% 的貨物發送到墨西哥?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, several questions there, I guess, so several answers to give. From the Midwest -- you mentioned Midwest, the West Coast, very little material moves from Midwest or East through the Rockies to the West Coast. It's quite an exorbitant freight rate. That's why one of the many advantages of Sinton is actually the freight rate, believe it or not, all the way to the West Coast to compete with the inflow market there. I think the freight rate there is $55 a ton or thereabout. That's the cheapest freight rate of any mill to the West Coast to sort of calibrate freights Northern freight folks in Northern Indiana are shipping down to Mexico. And that's in the order of, I do believe, $95 to $110 a ton or as -- from Sinton into Mexico into Monterrey is going to be likely $37-ish a ton. So the Sinton facility itself has a phenomenal sort of geographic advantage there to move that material into Mexico. And you're right, 30% or so, 1 million tons or thereabouts, should flow into Mexico from the Sinton facility.

    嗯,我猜有幾個問題,所以需要給幾個答案。從中西部-你提到中西部、西海岸,很少物質從中西部或東部經由洛磯山脈移動到西海岸。這是相當昂貴的運費。這就是為什麼辛頓的眾多優勢之一實際上是運價,不管你信不信,一直到西海岸與那裡的流入市場競爭。我認為那裡的運費大約是每噸55美元。這是所有到西海岸的工廠中最便宜的運費,以校準印第安納州北部的北方貨運人員運送到墨西哥的運費。我相信,這大約是每噸 95 美元到 110 美元,或者從辛頓到墨西哥再到蒙特雷可能是每噸 37 美元左右。因此,辛頓工廠本身擁有顯著的地理優勢,可以將這些材料運往墨西哥。你是對的,大約 30%,即 100 萬噸左右,應該從辛頓工廠流入墨西哥。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is coming from John Tumazos at John Tumazos Very Independent Research.

    今天我們的下一個問題來自 John Tumazos Very Independent Research 的 John Tumazos。

  • John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO

    John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO

  • Congratulations on all the customers on your campus at Sinton. With prime metals and the coating lines and then those customers, it's, I guess, close to 4 million tons of potential demand. Do you expect to have the 6 more vacant lots for new customers filled? Does it make sense to build a second mill next to the first one if the demand is this good? Is it possible from an engineering standpoint to add another caster to increase the capacity at Sinton above 3 million tons, given how much the customers seem to love it?

    恭喜辛頓校區的所有客戶。考慮到優質金屬和塗層生產線以及這些客戶,我猜潛在需求接近 400 萬噸。您預計新客戶的 6 個空地會被填滿嗎?如果需求這麼好,在第一家工廠旁邊建造第二家工廠是否有意義?鑑於客戶似乎非常喜歡它,從工程角度來看,是否有可能添加另一台連鑄機,將 Sinton 的產能提高到 300 萬噸以上?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, John, your independent research is on target as always. So thank you, and thank you for the kind words on the team's performance because they did a phenomenal job last year.

    好吧,約翰,你的獨立研究一如既往地符合目標。所以謝謝你們,也謝謝你們對球隊表現的溢美之詞,因為他們去年的表現非常出色。

  • I would suggest that Sinton is jewel. The reception we've had there thus far for those [6 customers] to come and the building even before the plant is running, I think, is testament to the vacuum of -- or the impact of the vacuum of steel -- primary steel production down then. So Sinton is a much-needed asset for our industry, and it's definitely differentiated.

    我建議 Sinton 是一顆寶石。我認為,到目前為止,我們對那些 [6 位客戶] 的到來和這座建築的接待,甚至在工廠運行之前,都證明了初級鋼的真空度或鋼真空度的影響那麼產量就會下降。因此,Sinton 是我們行業急需的資產,而且它絕對是與眾不同的。

  • The addition of a second caster likely is unlikely, but we have designed that facility to add somewhere between 1 million to 1.5 million tons of additional capacity. So expansion of that facility -- the capability is definitely there. I think we will also...

    增加第二台連鑄機的可能性不大,但我們設計設施時可增加 100 萬至 150 萬噸的額外產能。因此,該設施的擴展——能力肯定是存在的。我想我們也會...

  • John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO

    John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO

  • What is the limiting factor to the capacity of the plant? Is it the caster or the surrounding infrastructure?

    工廠產能的限制因素是什麼?是腳輪還是周圍的基礎設施?

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • The caster. The hot strip mill, like our other mills has the ability, given the width, gauge combination that we can produce there, has 4.5 million tons of capacity.

    施法者。熱軋帶鋼軋機與我們的其他軋機一樣,考慮到我們可以在那裡生產的寬度、規格組合,產能為 450 萬噸。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question today is a follow-up from Timna Tanners.

    我們今天的下一個問題是 Timna Tanners 的後續問題。

  • Timna Beth Tanners - Analyst

    Timna Beth Tanners - Analyst

  • I just think there's a lot of question about the fabricating business. And if you look historically the profitability in that division for EBITDA per ton has been pretty consistently $50 to $200 for -- just to give you a broad range, of course. Prices went up $1,000 a ton, EBITDA per ton exploded, and you say it's going to be sustained there. So just like to understand a little bit, is this a new normal in terms of earnings, is this out earning? What's driving that? Are customers not kind of pushing back at all on the big increases in light of falling underlying steel prices? Just any further color would be really helpful.

    我只是認為製造業務存在很多問題。如果你從歷史上看,該部門每噸 EBITDA 的盈利能力一直在 50 至 200 美元之間——當然,這只是為了給你一個廣泛的範圍。價格每噸上漲了 1,000 美元,每噸 EBITDA 呈爆炸式增長,你說它會持續下去。所以想了解一下,這是獲利的新常態嗎?這是獲利嗎?是什麼推動了這一點?鑑於基本鋼材價格下跌,客戶是否根本不抵制大幅上漲?只要有更多的顏色就會非常有幫助。

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Well, it depends on what time period you're calibrating to, Timna, I guess. That industry since last peaks has changed and consolidated to a large degree. And at the same time, currently, the actual market demand is at a historical high.

    好吧,我想這取決於你要校準的時間段,蒂姆納。自上次高峰以來,該行業已經發生了很大程度的變化和整合。同時,目前市場實際需求處於歷史高點。

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • So Timna, the visibility that we have isn't predicated upon falling steel prices. It's predicated upon the forward pricing that we know we have in the order book for steel joist index. The team has done a really good job of managing the steel raw material inputs. So that's why we have more certainty. I would not say this is a new normal. No. This is an extraordinary time for them. But to Mark's point, we're gaining market share as well as the team has been doing some really interesting things on the operational side. We've added shifts. Unique thing about our fabrication business is, we can really achieve whatever volume, demand will allow us to have just by adding people rather than adding assets, which is a very powerful tool. As we add volume, it really drops the bottom line. And so that's why, again, we feel really confident about 2022 for the fabrication, but it shouldn't be our expectation that this is something that is the new normal.

    因此,蒂姆納,我們所擁有的可見度並不是以鋼材價格下跌為基礎的。它是基於我們知道鋼托樑指數訂單簿中的遠期定價。團隊在管理鋼鐵原料投入方面做得非常好。這就是為什麼我們更有確定性。我不會說這是一種新常態。不,這對他們來說是一個非凡的時刻。但就馬克而言,我們正在獲得市場份額,團隊在營運方面做了一些非常有趣的事情。我們增加了班次。我們製造業務的獨特之處在於,我們只需增加人員而不是增加資產,就可以真正實現任何數量和需求,這是一個非常強大的工具。當我們增加交易量時,它確實會降低利潤。因此,我們再次對 2022 年的製造充滿信心,但我們不應該期望這是新常態。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question for today is a follow-up from Seth Rosenfeld.

    我們今天的最後一個問題是 Seth Rosenfeld 的後續問題。

  • Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst

    Seth R. Rosenfeld - Research Analyst

  • One final one of mine for shareholder returns. In the past, you've talked about the completion of Sinton as a potential catalyst to increase the base dividend. Can you talk us through the timeline in terms of the de-risking of Sinton that you would want to secure before making that step? When we think about the scale of any potential increase, how should we consider that versus historical strategy?

    我的最後一項是為了股東回報。過去,您曾談到辛頓的完成是增加基本股利的潛在催化劑。您能否向我們介紹一下您在採取這一步驟之前希望獲得的 Sinton 去風險化時間表?當我們考慮任何潛在成長的規模時,我們應該如何考慮歷史策略?

  • Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

    Theresa E. Wagler - Executive VP, CFO & Company Secretary

  • So I think we mentioned it on the last quarter conference call as well, Seth. There is definitely the emphasis from the Board and from the senior leadership team to increase the dividend when we have through-cycle cash earnings that are increasing. And so that definitely is Sinton. We generally have our increases in the first quarter. I can't tell you what that will looks like. I would expect to see it sometime in the first half of the year. But again, that's a Board decision to make. They're very supportive of this substantial increase. We have a target of a net income payout ratio of at least 35%. So that's something that we'll take into consideration as we look at the through-cycle earnings for Sinton and what that dividend increase will look like. But in the meantime, we're using the share buyback program as a complement. That's something that we believe is very powerful for shareholder returns as well.

    所以我想我們在上個季度的電話會議上也提到了這一點,Seth。當我們的整個週期現金收益不斷增加時,董事會和高階領導團隊肯定會強調增加股利。這絕對是辛頓。我們通常會在第一季實現成長。我無法告訴你那會是什麼樣子。我預計會在今年上半年的某個時候看到它。但同樣,這是董事會的決定。他們非常支持這一大幅成長。我們的目標是淨收入支付率至少為 35%。因此,當我們研究 Sinton 的整個週期收益以及股息增加時,我們將考慮這一點。但同時,我們正在使用股票回購計畫作為補充。我們認為這對股東回報也非常重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That was our final question for today. That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Millett for any closing remarks.

    這是我們今天的最後一個問題。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給米利特先生,讓他作結束語。

  • Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

    Mark D. Millett - Chairman, Co-Founder, CEO & President

  • Thanks, Kate. Just quite simply, for those on the line that support us, thank you for that support, for sure. Any customers, again, my heartfelt thanks to you. You make us who we are, in all honesty. And to our team, guys and girls, you absolutely shattered any previous performance by a long margin. And yes, the market helped, but what you do each and every day makes us different. And proud to be part of you.

    謝謝,凱特。很簡單,對於那些在線上支持我們的人,我當然感謝你們的支持。各位顧客,再次表達衷心的感謝。誠實地說,是你們讓我們成為了現在的我們。對於我們的團隊來說,無論是男孩還是女孩,你們絕對大大擊敗了之前的任何表現。是的,市場有所幫助,但你每天所做的事情讓我們與眾不同。很自豪能成為你們的一部分。

  • But lastly, though, phenomenal performance from a volume and from a profitability standpoint. But we need to buckle down -- double back down on our safety and get that trend going back in that with the trajectory as we have in the past. But again, thank you, each and every one of you. Make it a great day. Bye-bye.

    但最後,從銷售量和獲利能力的角度來看,表現非常出色。但我們需要全力以赴——加倍保障我們的安全,讓這個趨勢回到我們過去的軌跡。但再次感謝你們每一個人。使它成為一個偉大的日子。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation and have a great and safe day.

    謝謝。女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,祝您有美好而安全的一天。