智利化工礦業 (SQM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the SQM Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 SQM 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Irina Axenova, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係主管伊琳娜·阿克塞諾娃 (Irina Axenova)。請繼續。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning. Thank you for joining SQM's earnings conference call for the fourth quarter of 2023. This conference call will be recorded and is being webcast live. Our earnings press release and the presentation with a summary of the results have been uploaded to our website where you can also find a link to the webcast.

謝謝你，克里斯。早安.感謝您參加 SQM 2023 年第四季的收益電話會議。本次電話會議將進行錄音並進行網路直播。我們的收益新聞稿和結果摘要簡報已上傳到我們的網站，您也可以在其中找到網路廣播的連結。

Ricardo Ramos, our Chief Executive Officer, will be speaking on the call today. Gerardo Illanes, our Chief Financial Officer; Carlos Diaz, Executive Vice President of Lithium; Felipe Smith, Commercial Vice President of Lithium; Juan Pablo Bellolio, Commercial Vice President of Iodine and Industrial Chemicals; and Gonzalo Gil, Business Intelligence Director, will be also available to answer any questions later in the Q&A.

我們的執行長里卡多·拉莫斯 (Ricardo Ramos) 將在今天的電話會議上發表講話。 Gerardo Illanes，我們的財務長； Carlos Diaz，鋰業執行副總裁； Felipe Smith，鋰業務副總裁； Juan Pablo Bellolio，碘及工業化學品業務副總裁；商業智慧總監 Gonzalo Gil 也將在稍後的問答中回答任何問題。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that statements made in this conference call regarding our business outlook, future economic performance, anticipated profitability, revenues, expenses and other financial items, along with expected cost synergies and product or service line growth, are considered forward-looking statements under Federal Securities laws.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議中有關我們的業務前景、未來經濟表現、預期盈利能力、收入、費用和其他財務項目以及預期成本協同效應和產品或服務線增長的聲明根據聯邦證券法視為前瞻性陳述。

These statements are not historical facts and may be subject to changes due to new information, future developments or other factors. We assume no obligations to update these statements, except as required by law. For a complete forward-looking statement, please refer to our earnings press release and presentation.

這些陳述並非歷史事實，可能會因新資訊、未來發展或其他因素而改變。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。有關完整的前瞻性聲明，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿和簡報。

I now leave you with our Chief Executive Officer, Ricardo Ramos.

現在請您談談我們的執行長里卡多·拉莫斯。

Thank you, Irina, and good morning, and thank you for joining the call today. We reported our full year 2023 earnings yesterday with our net income reaching over $2 billion, delivering over $7 in earnings per share. I would like to focus on key performance drivers observed during the last year and our first impression on how this year will unfold for SQM.

謝謝伊琳娜，早安，謝謝您今天加入通話。昨天，我們公佈了 2023 年全年收益，淨利潤超過 20 億美元，每股收益超過 7 美元。我想重點關注去年觀察到的關鍵績效驅動因素，以及我們對今年 SQM 將如何發展的第一印象。

Starting with Lithium business. Our full year revenues were over $5 billion, approximately 36% lower when compared to the previous year, partially offset by record high sales volumes of 170,000 metric tons, almost 10% higher when compared to the previous year. The sales volumes during the fourth quarter were over 51,000 metric tons record quarterly sales volumes for SQM. Their revenues were affected by lower sales prices, which were decreasing quarter-over-quarter starting at the beginning of 2023 as a result of the capacity and inventory excess in the battery supply chain.

從鋰業務開始。我們的全年收入超過 50 億美元，比上年下降約 36%，部分被 17 萬噸創紀錄的高銷量（比上年增加近 10%）所抵消。第四季銷售超過 51,000 噸，創下 SQM 季度銷售紀錄。他們的收入受到銷售價格下降的影響，由於電池供應鏈的產能和庫存過剩，從 2023 年初開始，銷售價格逐季下降。

Our lithium sales volumes guidance for this year considers an expected growth around 5% to 10% based on the contracted sales volumes for the year as well as market estimates and conditions we are seeing at the moment. We believe lithium demand could grow another 20% this year. China remains the biggest demand and supply market for lithium products and is still going through destocking of both battery materials and lithium chemicals inventory accumulated in the past years. That, coupled with an estimate incremental supply makes it challenging at the moment to expect our sales volumes to increase above provided guidance.

根據今年的合約銷售以及我們目前看到的市場預測和狀況，我們今年的鋰銷量指導考慮了 5% 至 10% 左右的預期成長。我們認為今年鋰需求可能再成長 20%。中國仍然是鋰產品最大的供需市場，並且仍在經歷過去幾年累積的電池材料和鋰化學品庫存的去庫存。再加上估計的增量供應，目前很難預期我們的銷售量會增加到高於所提供的指引。

Nevertheless, depending on the timing of new supplies and any potential production curtailments, we could revisit our guidance as we advance through the year. Later in this call, we will discuss in more detail our lithium market views and electric vehicles market dynamics.

儘管如此，根據新供應的時間和任何潛在的減產，我們可能會在今年的進展中重新審視我們的指導。稍後在本次電話會議中，我們將更詳細地討論我們的鋰市場觀點和電動車市場動態。

In the Iodine business, we reached record high production volumes during 2023, producing over 13,000 metric tons of iodine and increasing our sales volume despite global demand contraction seen during last year. We expect to see some demand recovery in the Iodine market during 2024 with relatively stable prices as seen at the end of last year and stable sales volumes with a potential upside subject to lack of any incremental volumes from the competition. We believe SQM, as industry leader, is the only global iodine producer, which has been able to materially increase its supplies in the recent years.

在碘業務中，我們在 2023 年達到了創紀錄的高產量，生產了超過 13,000 噸碘，儘管去年全球需求萎縮，但我們的銷量仍在增加。我們預計 2024 年碘市場需求將出現一定程度的復甦，價格將與去年底相比相對穩定，銷量也將穩定，並且由於競爭對手沒有增加銷量，因此具有潛在的上漲空間。我們相信，作為行業領導者，SQM 是全球唯一近年來能夠大幅增加供應的碘生產商。

In the Fertilizer business, we saw some sales volumes recovery and market prices stabilizing. We expect to see positive demand growth in the potassium nitrogen market, driven by increased demand and product availability and expect our sales volumes to grow accordingly. In the meantime, we will focus on cost improvements and new market opportunities for our products.

在化肥業務方面，銷量有所回升，市場價格趨於穩定。在需求和產品供應增加的推動下，我們預計鉀氮市場的需求將出現積極增長，並預計我們的銷售將相應增長。同時，我們將重點放在產品的成本改進和新的市場機會。

Finally, I would like to thank the SQM team for dedication and unified vision is sustaining our leadership position in our key markets at consistently delivering great performance year-over-year. Thank you.

最後，我要感謝 SQM 團隊的奉獻精神和統一願景，維持我們在關鍵市場的領導地位，並持續每年提供出色的績效。謝謝。

Before we move to the Q&A, I would like -- it's going to be something different today. I would like to address one of the issues that has been brought up in the conversation with investors especially in the last 2 months, probably related to the future of the electric vehicles industry. For this discussion, I have invited to this meeting, Gonzalo Gil. Gonzalo is responsible for lithium market intelligence at SQM and could help us to visualize better EV battery industry. Thank you for being here, Gonzalo. And I have some questions. I think we're going to get on 10 to 15 minutes in order to go through these. But I think it's very important in order to have an outlook of the lithium industry in the future.

在我們進行問答之前，我想——今天的情況會有所不同。我想談談在與投資者的對話中特別是在過去兩個月中提出的問題之一，可能與電動車產業的未來有關。為了這次討論，我邀請了貢薩洛·吉爾 (Gonzalo Gil) 參加這次會議。 Gonzalo 負責 SQM 的鋰市場情報，可以幫助我們更了解電動車電池產業。謝謝你來到這裡，貢薩洛。我有一些問題。我想我們需要 10 到 15 分鐘來討論這些問題。但我認為對於未來鋰產業的展望非常重要。

Gonzalo, my first point is, as you know, in the recent weeks, it has been reported in the press that the U.S. and other countries are considering delaying deadlines for requiring minimum percentage of electric vehicles in new cars. How do you think this will affect electric vehicles penetration in the long term?

貢薩洛，我的第一點是，正如你所知，最近幾週，有媒體報道稱，美國和其他國家正在考慮推遲要求新車中電動車最低比例的最後期限。從長遠來看，您認為這將如何影響電動車的普及率？

Well, it's true that we have seen some news, many of them coming from the U.S. However, it's essential to remember that the U.S. market, while significant currently represents slightly less than 20% of the global car sales. On the other side, looking back 1 year, when we were -- there were concerns about 2023 being a challenging year for EVs due to the end of the subsidies in China, macroeconomic factors and various sentiments, but still Global EV sales for 2023 were even higher than initial estimates and closed the year with more than 14 million units sold.

確實，我們已經看到了一些新聞，其中許多來自美國。但是，重要的是要記住，美國市場雖然重要，但目前僅佔全球汽車銷量的不到 20%。另一方面，回顧一年前，由於中國補貼的終止、宏觀經濟因素和各種情緒，人們擔心 2023 年對電動車來說是充滿挑戰的一年，但 2023 年全球電動車銷量仍然甚至高於最初的估計，全年銷量超過1400 萬台。

In China, they already went through these very same doubts, feeling the market couldn't sustain itself without support. They no longer have relevant subsides, just some tax exemptions, but the industry continues to grow incredibly. It's not an industry that could collapse if subsidies are removed. I would like to put emphasis on a topic that's often overlooked. It is important not to forget the product that we are talking about.

在中國，他們已經經歷過這些同樣的疑慮，感覺市場如果沒有支持就無法維持。他們不再有相關補貼，只有一些免稅，但該行業繼續以驚人的速度成長。如果取消補貼，這不是一個可能崩潰的行業。我想強調一個經常被忽略的話題。重要的是不要忘記我們正在談論的產品。

If we look at the models on the market, we have already reached performance levels much higher than what we expected a few years ago, ranges over 250 miles in many models, and we are even reaching the 7 to 100 rule that it's 100-mile fast charges in as quick as 7 minutes. I don't know who can say that these numbers are not at the same level or even better than their ICV equivalents. The future of this industry is not based on government incentives, but on competitiveness, performance and obviously, on the positive impacts on the environment.

如果我們看看市場上的車型，我們已經達到了比我們幾年前預期高得多的性能水平，許多車型的續航里程超過了250英里，我們甚至達到了7到100的規則，即100英里快速充電僅需7 分鐘。我不知道誰能說這些數字與 ICV 同類產品不在同一水平，甚至更好。該產業的未來不是基於政府的激勵措施，而是基於競爭力、績效，顯然也基於對環境的正面影響。

Yes, Gonzalo, but at similar performance level that suppose similar performance between 2 alternatives, are EVs more expensive, really.

是的，貢薩洛，但在相似的性能水平下，假設兩種替代方案之間的性能相似，電動車確實更貴。

But less and less every day. thanks to the price competition between manufacturers, we see that in recent years, prices have fallen sharply. Today, the most popular EVs in the U.S., the Tesla Model Y can be purchased new for about $35,000. And to make a fair comparison, when we look at the total cost of ownership, which considers how much someone will spend for some years since electric vehicles require less maintenance and a lower cost to move around, we see that the gap between EVs and ICEs has been narrowing year after year that's across all segments. And according to some analysis, light vehicles are already in the money.

但一天天越來越少。由於廠商之間的價格競爭，我們看到近年來價格大幅下降。如今，特斯拉 Model Y 是美國最受歡迎的電動車，新車售價約 35,000 美元。為了進行公平的比較，當我們考慮總擁有成本時，考慮到由於電動車需要較少的維護和較低的移動成本，人們在幾年內會花多少錢，我們發現電動車和內燃機之間的差距所有細分市場的規模逐年縮小。根據一些分析，輕型車輛已經物有所值。

In Europe, countries like Norway have achieved over 80% EV penetration last year, aiming to end ICE sales from next year and others like Sweden are following not far behind with close to 60%. With no reason why in the medium term, EV cannot be on the same cost or even lower than its traditional equivalent. Since successful companies such as Tesla, Hyundai, KIA and several Chinese producers have shown us that they can be extremely cost efficient when producing an EV and continue delivering cars of the highest quality. Yes.

在歐洲，挪威等國家去年的電動車普及率超過 80%，目標是從明年開始停止內燃機汽車的銷售，瑞典等國家緊隨其後，電動車普及率接近 60%。毫無疑問，從中期來看，電動車的成本不能與傳統同類產品相同甚至更低。特斯拉、現代、起亞和幾家中國生產商等成功公司向我們表明，他們在生產電動車時可以極具成本效益，並繼續提供最高品質的汽車。是的。

But you think it's reasonable to expect in some way, higher price of lithium in the future, if you consider significant additional supply and additional demand. In particular, where you think that doubling or tripling the demand for lithium if we're positive about electric vehicles. This surely will affect the cost and compete -- the way it competes electric vehicles. What's your opinion about that?

但如果考慮到大量的額外供應和額外需求，您認為以某種方式預期未來鋰價格上漲是合理的。特別是，如果我們對電動車持樂觀態度，您認為鋰的需求將增加一倍或三倍。這肯定會影響成本和競爭——就像它與電動車的競爭方式一樣。您對此有何看法？

I understand. Maybe the approach is concerned, let's do a simple exercise with numbers. If we take an electric car like the Tesla like I said before, to manufacture that battery, it takes approximately 50 kilos of lithium carbonate equivalent per car, okay? Now if we think about some price, let's say, $20 a kilo, lithium cost would mean a total of $1,000 per car. We are talking about less than 3% of the total price and each additional dollar of the lithium price affects the final cost of the car by only $50.

我明白。也許方法有關，我們用數字來做一個簡單的練習。如果我們像我之前說的那樣，像特斯拉這樣的電動車，要製造這種電池，每輛車需要大約 50 公斤的碳酸鋰當量，好嗎？現在，如果我們考慮一下價格，比如說每公斤 20 美元，鋰成本意味著每輛車總共需要 1,000 美元。我們談論的是不到總價的 3%，鋰價格每增加 1 美元，對汽車的最終成本只影響 50 美元。

As you can see, lithium is not so relevant to the price. At least it should not be a variable that affects the demand for EVs in the future. Obviously, as seen in all industries, producers will try to lower costs as much as they can. And finally, the price will be linked to the total marginal costs that include investments of all the products needed to satisfy the demand.

正如您所看到的，鋰與價格的相關性並不那麼大。至少它不應該成為影響未來電動車需求的變數。顯然，正如所有行業所見，生產商將盡力降低成本。最後，價格將與總邊際成本掛鉤，其中包括滿足需求所需的所有產品的投資。

Today, the cost of batteries is high basically due to the significant investments in R&D that have allowed huge improvements in their performance. It is reasonable to expect the [fertilization] of R&D expenses as well as the economies of scale in the EV production will allow significant reaction in total costs. There is no reason to think that in the long term, EVs should be more expensive than their traditional counterparts. If the EV being sold is a good car and it's competitive, at least the price of lithium should not be a factor that prevents its adoption.

如今，電池的成本很高，主要是由於研發方面的大量投資使得電池的性能得到了巨大的提升。可以合理地預期，研發費用的[施肥]以及電動車生產的規模經濟將對總成本產生重大影響。沒有理由認為從長遠來看，電動車應該比傳統汽車更貴。如果所銷售的電動車是一輛好車並且具有競爭力，那麼至少鋰的價格不應該成為阻礙其採用的因素。

Okay. And what's about the some opinion related to the potential negative environmental effects of lithium mining.

好的。關於鋰礦開採潛在的負面環境影響的一些觀點又如何呢？

Yes. Maybe we can take SQM alliance with Codelco as a good example. It shows signs of the industry leadership with full commitment to environmental standards. We can see that projects like Salar Futuro mark an extraordinary step in the right environmental direction, and we'll set the standard that will be required to the entire industry. New products will need to incorporate this environmental standards into their costs given that they will be a minimum requirement in the industry. This way, the entire industry will aim to be sustainable.

是的。或許我們可以以 SQM 與 Codelco 的聯盟作為一個很好的例子。它顯示了行業領導地位和對環境標準的全面承諾。我們可以看到，像 Salar Futuro 這樣的計畫標誌著朝著正確的環境方向邁出了非凡的一步，我們將建立整個產業所需的標準。新產品需要將這項環境標準納入其成本，因為它們將是該行業的最低要求。這樣，整個產業將致力於永續發展。

It is also important to note that the use of batteries in BSS makes the energy transition viable due to the operational intermittency of the renewable sources, which certainly has a very direct effect on reducing the environmental impact from the use of fossil fuels in the electric grid.

另外需要注意的是，由於再生能源的運作間歇性，在 BSS 中使用電池使得能源轉型變得可行，這無疑對減少電網中使用化石燃料對環境的影響具有非常直接的影響。

Yes. Talking about the electric grid, there's also doubt and some people think about the electric grid and the availability of fast-charging stations if they can support the expected growth of the electric vehicles.

是的。談到電網，也存在疑問，有些人認為電網和快速充電站是否能夠支持電動車的預期成長。

The thing is that this concern has always existed since the early days of the EVs. China is a solid example that these elements are not the real constraints. In 3 years, they increased their annual sales over 6x without this effect causing major problems. As demand grows, charging stations should follow quickly. It's not a very complex technology. Fast charging is really simple. Additionally, for example, in the U.S., there are several Federal incentives and subsidies to encourage the installation of chargers to the point that today, it is estimated that 125 new chargers are being installed every day. And also, last year, we saw some declarations involving 7 of the largest OEMs to jointly develop charging networks throughout the market. EVs can be complemented to a sustainable power generation.

問題是，這種擔憂自電動車誕生之初就一直存在。中國就是一個很好的例子，證明這些因素並不是真正的限制因素。三年內，他們的年銷售額成長了 6 倍多，但這種影響並未造成重大問題。隨著需求的成長，充電站也應該迅速跟進。這不是一項非常複雜的技術。快速充電其實很簡單。此外，例如，在美國，有多項聯邦激勵措施和補貼來鼓勵安裝充電器，目前估計每天都會安裝 125 個新充電器。此外，去年我們也看到了一些涉及 7 家最大的 OEM 廠商的聲明，共同開發整個市場的充電網路。電動車可以補充永續發電。

Without going any further, again, we can see, for example, companies like SQM investing in our U.S. start-up, Electric Era, that is going to install fast charging networks backed by stationary lithium batteries so that electricity can be purchased at times of lower cost and then be stored for a car to be charged during the day. All of this helping to soften the demand and optimize the grid generation and distribution.

不用再進一步，我們可以看到，例如，像 SQM 這樣的公司投資了我們的美國新創公司 Electric Era，該公司將安裝由固定鋰電池支持的快速充電網絡，以便可以在需要時購買電力。成本較低，然後存放起來供汽車在白天充電。所有這些都有助於緩解需求並優化電網發電和配電。

Finally, and I think it's very interesting, but finally, what do you think about the lithium demand in the long term, if we think in the long term? And how do you think the supply can respond to this potential demand?

最後，我認為這非常有趣，但最後，如果我們從長遠來看，您對長期鋰需求有何看法？您認為供應如何因應這種潛在需求？

Well, if we look at 10 years from now, I think that maybe for 2023, it's reasonable to think that more than 50% of new car sales worldwide should be EVs. It is also reasonable that average batteries are going to be more powerful than the current ones. And we must not forget that increase that we are seeing and expecting in BSS due to its role in the energy transition goals that different countries have set, together with batteries going to buses and trucks could have another 600,000 tons to demand.

好吧，如果我們展望 10 年後，我認為也許到 2023 年，有理由認為全球超過 50% 的新車銷量應該是電動車。普通電池將比目前電池更強大也是合理的。我們絕不能忘記，由於其在不同國家製定的能源轉型目標中的作用，我們所看到和預期的 BSS 增長，再加上用於公共汽車和卡車的電池可能還有 60 萬噸的需求。

So if we consider all of this, it would seem reasonable to think in something near 4 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, which is kind of a fourfold increase from last year demand. We're at the beginning of an EV revolution and their performance has greatly exceeded expectations. I think that a significant portion of the market was waiting for some important issues like range and charging times to stabilize at a point where they feel it's comfortable. And I think that's already been achieved.

因此，如果我們考慮到所有這些，那麼考慮接近 400 萬噸碳酸鋰當量似乎是合理的，這比去年的需求增加了四倍。我們正處於電動車革命的開端，其性能遠遠超出了預期。我認為市場的很大一部分正在等待一些重要的問題，例如續航里程和充電時間，以穩定在他們認為舒適的水平。我認為這已經實現了。

Well, we have already reached levels where people are getting excited. Just look -- how everyone everywhere is talking about EVs. It is one of the mandatory conversation topics. This is why in the medium term, we should continue to see demand growing. lithium batteries are extraordinary. There may be technologies that are better in a certain aspect. But when we consider all the qualities together, it is clearly the unquestionable leader and has the extra advantage that there is already a well-developed ecosystem that supports production. And additionally, if we look ahead and also consider, for example, some of the comments from battery manufacturers, its price should continue to trend downward from now on.

嗯，我們已經達到了人們興奮的程度。只要看看——世界各地的每個人都在談論電動車。這是強制性的談話主題之一。這就是為什麼從中期來看，我們應該會繼續看到需求成長。鋰電池非比尋常。可能有一些技術在某些方面更好。但當我們綜合考慮所有品質時，它顯然是毫無疑問的領導者，並且具有額外的優勢，即已經有一個完善的生態系統來支持生產。此外，如果我們展望未來並考慮電池製造商的一些評論，那麼從現在開始其價格應該會繼續呈下降趨勢。

Should we expect lithium being replaced? Maybe for some niche uses, but not in a relevant way. Now to answer the last part of the question, based on the behavior that we have been able to observe in the market in the recent years, and all the announcements of projects that plan to enter, I believe that, yes, we should have lithium supply for those volumes; however, I also think that it's reasonable to -- that the total cost of those last tons produced will be much higher than the current prices. The demand should be growing to 2 million, 3 million, 4 million, and each step should require supply entering the market. So there should be a variety of projects of different costs to supply this product in the market.

我們應該期待鋰被取代嗎？也許用於某些利基用途，但不是以相關的方式。現在回答問題的最後一部分，根據近年來我們在市場上觀察到的行為，以及所有計劃進入的項目的公告，我相信，是的，我們應該有鋰這些數量的供應；然而，我也認為最後一噸生產的總成本將遠高於目前的價格是合理的。需求應該會成長到200萬、300萬、400萬，每一步都需要供應進入市場。因此，市場上應該有多種不同成本的項目來供該產品。

Thank you, Gonzalo. Please stay with us because probably you will receive some questions during the Q&A. I hope you will receive some challenge of your assumptions. I hope it will. Irina, that's it, we can go to the Q&A, I think.

謝謝你，貢薩洛。請繼續關注我們，因為您可能會在問答過程中收到一些問題。我希望您的假設會受到一些挑戰。我希望它會。伊琳娜，就這樣，我想我們可以進入問答環節了。

Perfect. Thank you Gonzalo. Thank you Ricardo. Chris, we can open the line for questions.

完美的。謝謝貢薩洛。謝謝里卡多。克里斯，我們可以開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Joel Jackson。

I have a few questions. I'll ask one at a time. Can you help us understand how to -- the math of your sales guidance, your volume guidance when it relates to the lithium sulfate business or sulfates to China upgraded to hydroxide. When you say that you did 170,000 tons in '23, was that all excluding sulfate. And when you say volume will be up 5%, you expect you'd be able to do 5% to 10% higher volume in 2024, that's 180-something thousand tons. Is that excluding sulfate, we want to add sulfate to all these numbers? And how much of sulfate should we add?

我有幾個問題。我會一次問一個。您能否幫助我們了解如何計算您的銷售指導、銷售指導（當涉及硫酸鋰業務或將中國的硫酸鹽升級為氫氧化物時）。當你說你在 23 年生產了 17 萬噸時，這是否全部不包括硫酸鹽。當你說產量將增加 5% 時，你預計 2024 年產量將增加 5% 到 10%，約 180 萬噸。是不是排除硫酸鹽，我們要在所有這些數字中添加硫酸鹽？我們應該添加多少硫酸鹽？

Hello, Joel, this is Carlos Diaz. Yes, the lithium sulfate is already included in the sales that we report in the fourth quarter. It is included as lithium hydroxide. And you have to remember that we do our refining in China, feeding the plant with lithium sulfate and we produce lithium hydroxide. And those lithium hydroxide is already included in the Q4.

你好，喬爾，我是卡洛斯·迪亞茲。是的，硫酸鋰已經包含在我們第四季報告的銷售額中。它以氫氧化鋰的形式包含在內。您必須記住，我們在中國進行精煉，向工廠供應硫酸鋰，然後生產氫氧化鋰。這些氫氧化鋰已經包含在 Q4 中。

It's also included in our guidance for the next year and we considered all the lithium we're going to sell worldwide.

它也包含在我們明年的指導中，我們考慮了我們將在全球銷售的所有鋰。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So let's follow on that. So if you're going to sell 180-something thousand tons this year and you were supposed to do 20,000 to 25,000 tons of sulfate and you're supposed to produce your ponds, I mean, 210,000 tons, which ignores the sulfate opportunity. Does that mean you're going to be building something like, I don't know, 50,000 or 60,000 tons of inventory. So your guidance suggests you will build 50,000 tons or so of inventory this year. Is that fair?

好的。那麼就讓我們繼續關注吧。因此，如果你今年要出售 180 噸左右，而你應該生產 20,000 到 25,000 噸硫酸鹽，並且你應該生產你的池塘，我的意思是，210,000 噸，這忽略了硫酸鹽的機會。我不知道，這是否意味著您將建立 50,000 或 60,000 噸庫存。因此，你們的指導建議今年將建立 5 萬噸左右的庫存。這樣公平嗎？

Yes. Well, regarding the capacity, we're already closing or to reaching the capacity of 210,000 in Chile. And additional to that, we have our capacity in China to transform the lithium sulfate to lithium hydroxide and the new production that is coming from Australia. So in total, we expect to produce this year around 220,000 to 230,000 metric tons. So however, this capacity cannot be necessarily be reflected in sales given the need to qualify with customers the product that come from the new plant.

是的。嗯，關於產能，我們已經關閉或達到智利 210,000 的產能。除此之外，我們在中國有能力將硫酸鋰轉化為氫氧化鋰，新產品來自澳洲。因此，我們預計今年的產量總計約為 22 萬至 23 萬噸。然而，鑑於需要向客戶證明來自新工廠的產品的資格，這種能力不一定反映在銷售上。

On the other hand, our -- always our strategy has been to produce at a full capacity. So that's the way we are always prepared to supply more product to the market when it is needed. So that's what just we did in the fourth quarter.

另一方面，我們的策略始終是滿載生產。因此，我們始終準備在市場需要時向其提供更多產品。這就是我們在第四季所做的。

Yes. Let me add something. Yes, we will increase inventory Yes, for sure, probably will be lower than 50,000, not as significant a 50,000. But keep in mind that with an agreement of Codelco that we have a significant challenge in selling additional tons until the year 2030, having an additional inventory is going to be a very good news in order to face what is expected for the year 2025 onwards. But again, as we said in the press release, and now we comment, our guidance is depending what is the specific situation of this year, but the situation is slightly better or better, we will have the advantage of the volume of inventory in order to move forward.

是的。讓我補充一下。是的，我們會增加庫存，是的，當然，可能會低於 50,000，而不是 50,000。但請記住，根據 Codelco 的協議，我們在 2030 年之前面臨額外銷售噸數的重大挑戰，因此擁有額外的庫存將是一個非常好的消息，以便應對 2025 年以後的預期。但同樣，正如我們在新聞稿中所說，現在我們發表評論，我們的指導取決於今年的具體情況，但情況稍好或更好，我們將有庫存量的優勢，以便訂購前進。

Just my last question, just kind of on the same question, I'll pass it on. Is your -- are your economics on the hydroxide being produced in lithium sulfate. Is that pretty much similar economics as your normal hydroxide -- legacy hydroxide production, and these include the CORFO lease payments as part of that economics.

這只是我的最後一個問題，就同一個問題而言，我會轉達它。您對硫酸鋰生產氫氧化物的經濟狀況是怎麼樣的？這與傳統的氫氧化物生產非常相似嗎？其中包括作為該經濟學一部分的 CORFO 租賃付款。

It's very quite similar both economics.

這兩種經濟學非常相似。

The next question is from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Isabella Simonato。

Great presentation on EVs. My question is still on the lithium sales dynamics. If I recall correctly, in Q3, right, you mentioned that you were looking for actually lower volumes in Q4 when actually volumes were record, right, last quarter. So I wonder if you could explain a little bit more the strategy you followed during the quarter in terms of sales and how are you seeing? I think inventory is down the chain, right? And I think that's the trickiest part to track at this point is how much volume there is overseas and how there and trying to figure out a little bit the supply and demand balance.

關於電動車的精彩演講。我的問題仍然是關於鋰的銷售動態。如果我沒記錯的話，在第三季度，您提到您在第四季度尋找實際上較低的銷量，而實際上上個季度的銷量是創紀錄的，對吧。所以我想知道您是否可以更多地解釋一下您在本季在銷售方面遵循的策略以及您的看法如何？我認為庫存是在鏈條的下游，對嗎？我認為目前最棘手的部分是海外的銷售量有多少，以及海外的銷售如何，並試圖弄清楚供需平衡。

And my second question is, this is the first call post the agreement with Codelco, right? So I wonder if you could tell us a little bit more on the strategy of capital allocation going forward, right, considering that you already know what's going to happen beyond 2030. How do you see SQM's operational footprint on lithium globally, right? You did that investment in Australia recently. So I was wondering how do you see the geographic exposure for the company over the years considering that you already have the agreement in place.

我的第二個問題是，這是與 Codelco 達成協議後的第一次電話會議，對嗎？因此，考慮到您已經知道 2030 年之後會發生什麼，我想知道您是否可以告訴我們更多有關未來資本配置策略的資訊。您如何看待 SQM 在全球鋰業務上的業務足跡，對嗎？您最近在澳洲進行了這項投資。因此，我想知道考慮到您已經簽訂了協議，您如何看待公司多年來的地理風險。

Excuse me, this is the operator. The speaker line is open. If you would like to speak.

打擾一下，這是接線生。揚聲器線路開路。如果你想發言。

Okay. I will answer to the first question. As Carlos commented just before, our strategy is to be prepared always to meet the needs of our clients. So at the end of Q4, significant demand was generated that could have been for different reasons, such as restocking needs prior to the Chinese New Year or potentially some price speculation from customers. But independent of that, what I could comment is that despite a better-than-expected Q4 2023, we are also expecting a Q1 2024 volume to be higher than Q1 2023.

好的。我來回答第一個問題。正如卡洛斯之前評論的那樣，我們的策略是始終做好準備以滿足客戶的需求。因此，在第四季度末，產生了巨大的需求，這可能是出於不同的原因，例如農曆新年之前的補貨需求或客戶可能進行的一些價格猜測。但除此之外，我可以評論的是，儘管 2023 年第四季的銷量好於預期，但我們預計 2024 年第一季的銷量將高於 2023 年第一季。

About the second point of your question on the CapEx allocation, considering Codelco agreement, I can say, Ricardo Ramos speaking, that we have, I think, a full agreement with Codelco about our challenge in the Salar de Atacama and our CapEx. In terms of that, as you know, we are in investing in the Salar de Atacama first in increasing capacity. We want to reach at least the 240,000 metric tons of total production capacity. We're increasing our production of lithium hydroxide in order to have more alternatives of lithium hydroxide at our facilities in Carmen in Chile.

關於你關於資本支出分配的問題的第二點，考慮到Codelco 協議，我可以說，里卡多·拉莫斯發言，我認為，我們與Codelco 就我們在阿塔卡馬鹽沼面臨的挑戰和資本支出達成了全面協議。就這一點而言，如您所知，我們首先投資阿塔卡馬鹽沼以增加容量。我們希望總產能至少達到24萬噸。我們正在增加氫氧化鋰的產量，以便在智利卡門的工廠提供更多氫氧化鋰替代品。

And of course, we are committed with Codelco to move forward with the Salar Futuro project. That is the new project in order to move, I hope a much better quality, much better cost position probably, better environmental footprint, better deals of the process. But again, we have full agreement, we don't expect to change our CapEx in the near future in Chile. We are fully aligned with Codelco in the strategy.

當然，我們致力於與 Codelco 一起推進 Salar Futuro 計畫。這是為了搬遷的新項目，我希望有更好的品質、更好的成本位置、更好的環境足跡、更好的流程交易。但我們再次完全同意，我們預計在不久的將來不會改變我們在智利的資本支出。我們在戰略上與 Codelco 完全一致。

And our strategy of CapEx allocation outside Chile, depends on opportunities. We have been very clear that we foresee an opportunity to take a position in mining resources that is good for the company that will allow us to be competitive in the lithium industry, and we believe in the lithium industry. We're ready to go. And as you know, we are in Mount Holland project that started 2 months ago. We are producing. We're very happy about that. And we now -- we have this new joint venture potentially with Hancock in order to go to Azure that we think is a very good project, and we will move forward to. If we have more alternatives in the future, you never know, but I'm more than open to go to good alternative in the lithium industry.

我們在智利以外的資本支出配置策略取決於機會。我們非常清楚，我們預見到有機會在礦業資源領域佔有一席之地，這對公司有利，這將使我們在鋰行業中具有競爭力，我們相信鋰行業。我們準備出發了。如您所知，我們正在進行 2 個月前啟動的 Mount Holland 專案。我們正在生產。我們對此感到非常高興。現在，我們可能與 Hancock 建立新的合資企業，以便進入 Azure，我們認為這是一個非常好的項目，我們將繼續前進。如果未來我們有更多的替代品，你永遠不會知道，但我非常願意選擇鋰行業的良好替代品。

The next question is from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的本‧艾薩克森。

I have 3 questions. The first question is just trying to reconcile 2 comments that you made. On the one hand, you said that you expect oversupply of lithium to persist throughout 2024, and we've seen what that's done to pricing. But on the other hand, you've said that you expect average realized prices for lithium to be similar to last year, which I believe was averaged about $30,000. In order to achieve $30,000, and if we assume Q1 is going to be the same as Q4, we would need to see prices exceeding $40,000 at some point throughout the year. How can we achieve that if you expect there to be oversupply for the rest of the year?

我有 3 個問題。第一個問題只是試圖協調您提出的兩則評論。一方面，您表示預計鋰供應過剩將持續到 2024 年，我們已經看到了這對定價的影響。但另一方面，您說過預計鋰的平均實現價格將與去年相似，我認為平均價格約為 30,000 美元。為了達到 30,000 美元，如果我們假設第一季與第四季度相同，我們需要看到全年某個時候價格超過 40,000 美元。如果您預計今年剩餘時間將出現供應過剩，我們該如何實現這一目標？

Hello, Ben. As we have always explained in the past, we cannot predict what is going to happen with the price in the coming months. This will be the result of the supply-demand balance. You know that most of our sales are linked with indexes, so the spot price movements should influence our realized prices with a certain lag. We have seen stable prices in the last 3 months, and we do not have information today that allow us to foresee important changes in the coming 3 months. However, we may see some upside based on the timing of new supply entering the market as commissioning phases sometimes take longer than expected or we could also see some possible impacts in the production of less competitive suppliers at current prices. Regarding total demand, we maintained an unexpected -- sorry, an expected growth of 20% and do not anticipate major changes. There is less uncertainty than in the supply.

你好，本。正如我們過去一直解釋的那樣，我們無法預測未來幾個月的價格會發生什麼。這將是供需平衡的結果。您知道，我們的大部分銷售都與指數掛鉤，因此現貨價格變動應該會以一定的滯後性影響我們的實現價格。過去 3 個月我們看到價格穩定，但今天沒有資訊可以讓我們預見未來 3 個月的重要變化。然而，根據新供應進入市場的時間，我們可能會看到一些上行空間，因為調試階段有時需要比預期更長的時間，或者我們也可能會看到競爭力較弱的供應商以當前價格生產可能會受到一些影響。關於總需求，我們保持了意外的成長——抱歉，預計將成長 20%，並且預計不會發生重大變化。與供應相比，不確定性較小。

Ben, Ricardo speaking. I want to be very clear that our estimate for the year 2024 is, yes, a lot of uncertainty, but we don't expect that the average price of 2024 will be the same as the average price of the previous year. What we think is some price stability, considering what we have been facing in the market in the last probably 5 to 6 months. But we are not saying that the whole 2024 will be an average -- same average of 2023.

本，里卡多發言。我想非常明確的是，我們對 2024 年的估計確實有很多不確定性，但我們預計 2024 年的平均價格不會與去年的平均價格相同。考慮到過去 5 到 6 個月我們在市場上所面臨的情況，我們認為價格會保持一定程度的穩定。但我們並不是說整個 2024 年將是一個平均值——與 2023 年的平均值相同。

I understand. I misunderstood that. So I just have 2 more questions. Second is on the -- on your costs of producing lithium, I know you don't disclose exactly what the cash costs are, but can you talk about how inflation has impacted those cash costs over the past year?

我明白。我誤解了。所以我還有兩個問題。第二個是關於你們生產鋰的成本，我知道你們沒有具體透露現金成本是多少，但你能談談過去一年通貨膨脹如何影響這些現金成本嗎？

This is Gerardo Illanes. Of course, we have seen some pressure on inflation that, of course, is higher in Chile and all over the world than what it was before the pandemic, but also, we're seeing that sort of net out with the effect of a weaker Chilean peso when compared to what we saw about a year ago. So both together make us think that it's more or less even.

我是赫拉爾多·伊利亞內斯。當然，我們已經看到了一些通膨壓力，當然，智利和世界各地的通膨壓力都高於大流行之前的水平，而且，我們也看到了這種淨出口的影響，因為經濟疲軟。與我們大約一年前看到的情況相比，智利比索。所以兩者加在一起讓我們認為它或多或少是均勻的。

Okay. And then my last question, I don't want to challenge the EV speaker, but I do have a question, which is if Trump is elected and he kills the IRA. I don't think there's a doubt that EV demand is still going to be there. But if EV demand slows down in the U.S. and everything gets pushed out really what that speaks to is a higher probability of there being oversupply in lithium for the next several years. Can you just address that risk, please.

好的。然後我的最後一個問題，我不想挑戰電動車發言人，但我確實有一個問題，那就是川普是否當選並殺死愛爾蘭共和軍。我認為毫無疑問電動車的需求仍然存在。但如果美國電動車需求放緩，一切都被推遲，這意味著未來幾年鋰供應過剩的可能性更大。請您解決這個風險好嗎？

Ben. This is Gonzalo here. Yes. So today, as I mentioned earlier, the EV demand in the U.S., it's currently close to 10%. So yes, probably all of this is considered in the forecast, not only ours, but in everyone's forecast. There will be some growth in the future. In the long term, I think there is no impact at all. And I think that everyone is expecting something, but it will keep growing, and it will not be that huge of an impact.

本.這是貢薩洛。是的。所以今天，正如我之前提到的，美國的電動車需求目前接近 10%。所以，是的，可能所有這些都在預測中被考慮，不僅是我們的預測，而且是每個人的預測。未來會有一定的成長。從長遠來看，我認為根本沒有影響。我認為每個人都在期待一些東西，但它會不斷增長，而且不會產生那麼大的影響。

Our next question comes from Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Corinne Blanchard。

I want to come back on the lithium pricing. So you say you expect a relatively stable pricing for this year. Just want to confirm when you say relatively stable, do you mean versus 4Q. So it has about 15,000. So that would be kind of part of the first question.

我想談談鋰的定價。所以你說你預計今年的價格會相對穩定。只是想確認一下，當你說相對穩定時，你的意思是與第四季相比。所以它有大約15,000。所以這是第一個問題的一部分。

And the second question on lithium is the 4Q realized pricing was much lower versus expectation and much closer to spot. So can you talk a little bit about maybe did you have a shift of your volume being more at spot versus some of the benchmark or what just happened in 4Q?

關於鋰的第二個問題是，第四季的實際定價遠低於預期，並且更接近現貨價格。那麼，您能否談談與某些基準相比，您的成交量是否有更多的現貨變化，或者第四季度剛剛發生的情況？

Yes, as I mentioned before, we only commented about the coming 3 months, Corinne. So there are -- according to the information we are handling today, we see more or less stable prices, okay? What could happen later after that, is, of course, uncertain. And I could not comment on that.

是的，正如我之前提到的，我們只評論了未來 3 個月，Corinne。因此，根據我們今天處理的信息，我們看到價格或多或少穩定，好嗎？當然，此後會發生什麼是不確定的。我無法對此發表評論。

And regarding our contract base, I can comment that -- all our contracts today are all linked to indexes just with certain lag. And it depends also if your sales are in China where you may use different indexes than when you are outside China.

關於我們的合約基礎，我可以評論說——我們今天所有的合約都與指數掛鉤，只是有一定的滯後性。這也取決於您的銷售是否在中國，您可能會使用與在中國境外時不同的指數。

Okay. And maybe for a follow-up. Can you give an idea of the volume cadence for the year? I mean 1Q is normally seasonally low and then we should see like a better improvement in 2Q and 3Q. But yes, if you can just talk a little bit about that, that would be very helpful.

好的。也許是為了後續行動。能透露一下今年的成交量節奏嗎？我的意思是，第一季通常處於季節性低位，然後我們應該會看到第二季和第三季有更好的改善。但是，是的，如果你能談談這一點，那就非常有幫助了。

Yes, I could comment that probably the second semester volumes will be higher than the first semester volumes. And yes. Regarding -- I mean, that's all what I could comment actually because, as we said before, there are also things that could happen on the supply potentially that could change and we have a strategy of having stocks and be ready to sell if the market needs at any time. So take my comments as all things keeping as usual, but things could change also.

是的，我可以評論說，第二學期的捲數可能會高於第一學期的捲數。是的。關於——我的意思是，這就是我實際上可以評論的所有內容，因為正如我們之前所說，供應方面也可能發生一些可能發生變化的事情，我們有一個策略，即擁有庫存並準備在市場出現變化時出售。隨時需要。因此，請把我的評論視為一切照常進行，但情況也可能會改變。

The next question comes from Gabriel Simoes with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的加布里埃爾·西蒙斯。

My first question is about the Mount Holland project. Given that you recently started production, it would be interesting to have an update on the project and on your expectations for this year. So I'd like to understand better what the strategy is for the spodumene production, given that your refinery is not expected to start up until next year, right? So do you plan on tolling and selling lithium directly or selling spodumene directly or building inventories for when the refinery starts? And you mentioned your guidance already includes all your lithium sales globally. So could you break down how much could come from Australia versus Chile and others, right, given this strategy?

我的第一個問題是關於荷蘭山計畫的。鑑於您最近開始製作，了解該項目的最新情況以及您對今年的期望將會很有趣。所以我想更了解鋰輝石生產的策略是什麼，因為你們的煉油廠預計要到明年才能啟動，對吧？那麼，您是否計劃直接加工和銷售鋰，或者直接銷售鋰輝石，或者在精煉廠啟動時建立庫存？您提到您的指導已經包括您在全球範圍內的所有鋰銷售額。那麼，考慮到這項策略，您能否詳細分析澳洲與智利和其他國家可以獲得多少資金？

And the second question is taking advantage of Gonzalo's presence, it would be interesting to hear more about your outlook for lithium prices in 2024. I know we've discussed this a little bit. I just wanted to understand that, so you mentioned prices are expected to remain flat, while demand should grow around 20%. So in terms of supply then, how do you expect this equation to behave ahead, right? So is this stable price related mostly to supply additions in 2023? Or are you also mapping significant additions for 2024? If you could give us some projects that you're tracking closely that will be interesting as well.

第二個問題是利用 Gonzalo 的機會，了解更多有關 2024 年鋰價格前景的資訊將會很有趣。我知道我們已經對此進行了一些討論。我只是想了解這一點，所以你提到價格預計將保持平穩，而需求應該會增加 20% 左右。那麼就供應而言，您預期這個方程式未來會如何表現，對嗎？那麼這種穩定的價格主要與 2023 年供應增加有關嗎？還是您仍在規劃 2024 年的重大新增內容？如果您能給我們一些您正在密切跟踪的項目，那也會很有趣。

And also, what are you observing in terms of the cash cost curve for the segment, right, given the addition in suppliers here. In that scenario, would you expect stoppages ahead if current prices remain? That's it from my side.

另外，考慮到這裡供應商的增加，您在該細分市場的現金成本曲線方面觀察到了什麼，對吧。在這種情況下，如果當前價格保持不變，您會預期未來會出現停工嗎？從我這邊來說就是這樣。

Sorry, I guess a little bit confused about many questions, but let me tie to the first one, and we can review the other questions in order to be more clear what you want from us. But the first one about Mount Holland, the project, as you know, is a project -- the idea of the project is to be a 50,000 metric tons equivalent capacity of lithium hydroxide. That's the project itself. We are very positive after 2 months of production. And we think this year, even though it's a starting year, there's commissioning of some of the facilities at the production of spodumene. We will produce close to 300,000 metric tons of spodumene that equivalent in lithium hydroxide. If you convert to lithium hydroxide is close to 40,000. It means it is very close to the final production capacity that we estimate in this first step of the project.

抱歉，我想我對很多問題都有點困惑，但讓我聯繫第一個問題，我們可以回顧其他問題，以便更清楚您想從我們這裡得到什麼。但第一個是關於 Mount Holland 的，正如你所知，這個項目只是一個項目——該項目的想法是生產 5 萬噸當量的氫氧化鋰。這就是項目本身。生產2個月後我們非常積極。我們認為今年，儘管這是一個開始的一年，但一些鋰輝石生產設施已經投入運作。我們將生產近 30 萬噸鋰輝石，相當於氫氧化鋰。如果換算成氫氧化鋰則接近4萬。這意味著它非常接近我們在專案第一步中估計的最終產能。

I hope next second semester this year, second half will be according to our 50,000 metric tons per year capacity, that's -- we are looking forward, very positive about what's going on in the project. And of course, because we expect to produce this close to 300,000 metric tons, that is close to 40,000 metric tons equivalent in lithium hydroxide at SQM. We have 50% of that. It means close to 20,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide equivalent. Our strategy is both.

我希望今年下個學期，下半年將根據我們每年 50,000 噸的產能，也就是說，我們對專案的進展非常樂觀，非常積極。當然，因為我們預計產量將接近 30 萬噸，相當於 SQM 的氫氧化鋰當量將接近 40,000 噸。我們有 50%。這意味著接近 20,000 噸氫氧化鋰當量。我們的策略是兩者兼具。

First, to try to have some tolling in China in order to convert some spodumene to lithium hydroxide in order to sell lithium hydroxide probably will be no more than 5,000 to 7,000 metric tons. We don't know yet. Probably, we will stock and we have inventory of the difference of spodumene in order to have more spodumene when the facility that we are building in Australia in order to produce lithium hydroxide will be ready, that is going to be ready next year. And we are going to have this additional spodumene, but again, we don't expect to sell spodumene to the market. It's not our business. We -- if we do something is to transform and to have a total agreement in order to transform to lithium hydroxide. But again, it's not going to be so relevant. It means if you consider our estimates of total volume sales for this year that I hope is going to be close to 200,000 metric tons. No, that's too high, maybe lower than that. But okay, close to.

首先，嘗試在中國進行一些來料加工，將一些鋰輝石轉化為氫氧化鋰，然後銷售氫氧化鋰，產量可能不會超過5,000至7,000噸。我們還不知道。也許，我們會庫存，並且我們有鋰輝石差異的庫存，以便當我們在澳大利亞建造的生產氫氧化鋰的設施準備就緒時擁有更多的鋰輝石，該設施將於明年準備就緒。我們將擁有額外的鋰輝石，但同樣，我們預計不會向市場出售鋰輝石。這不關我們的事。我們——如果我們做某件事就是轉型，並達成完全一致，以便轉型為氫氧化鋰。但同樣，它不會那麼相關。這意味著，如果考慮到我們對今年總銷量的估計，我希望將接近 20 萬公噸。不，那太高了，也許還低。不過還好，接近了。

And for this total amount, 7,000 is not that big. But that's what is going to be the first estimate. And the project, the good news is the project is going ahead very good and the production quality, the volumes, the equipment, the work -- everything is working, and we're very happy about that.

而以這個總數來說，七千並不算多。但這就是第一個估計。好消息是，該專案進展順利，生產品質、產量、設備、工作——一切都在進行，我們對此感到非常高興。

The second question, I'm not so sure what's related.

第二個問題，我不太確定有什麼關係。

Sure. Actually, the second question is more about the outlook for prices, right? So you mentioned that you expect prices to remain flat, while demand should grow, right, by 20%, right? So this is probably due to the oversupply that you guys have mentioned, right? So I just wanted to understand whether most of this oversupply you expect comes from projects that were added in the end of like closer to the end of 2023 or if you're also like mapping significant additions in supply for 2024 and which projects you guys are tracking for 2024 that you think could be like important for us to track as well. So that's one question.

當然。其實第二個問題更多的是關於價格的前景，對嗎？您提到您預計價格將保持平穩，而需求應該增長 20%，對嗎？所以這可能是你們提到的供過於求造成的，對嗎？因此，我只是想了解您預期的大部分供應過剩是否來自於 2023 年底添加的項目，或者您是否也想繪製 2024 年供應的重要增量以及你們屬於哪些項目您認為2024 年的跟踪對我們來說也很重要。這是一個問題。

And then the other question here about the market is regarding the cash cost curve. So how you've seen that curve change given the new suppliers and new projects that have joined the market and in that scenario with renewed cost curve here, if you would expect any stoppages ahead for new -- for older projects, higher cost projects if the current prices remain?

關於市場的另一個問題是關於現金成本曲線。那麼，考慮到新的供應商和新項目已經加入市場，並且在這種情況下，這裡有新的成本曲線，如果您預計新項目會出現任何停工，那麼您會如何看待這條曲線的變化— —對於舊項目，成本較高的項目，如果目前的價格還保持嗎？

One point that is very important, we don't want to comment on specific projects from our competitors. We don't -- of course, we have a forecast for different of them, and we put that on average what we estimate of the market. But we will not comment on specific if we think one project is going to go ahead or the other not, it's good or not good, whatever. But again, as we explained before, we foresee stable prices in the short term. Probably, we are more optimistic -- more positive for the second half of this year. Yes, we are more positive. But in the short term, we are more stable in price environment.

有一點非常重要，我們不想評論競爭對手的具體項目。我們沒有——當然，我們對不同的市場有預測，並且我們將其平均化為我們對市場的估計。但如果我們認為一個項目會進行或另一個不會進行，好或不好，等等，我們不會具體發表評論。但正如我們之前所解釋的，我們預計短期內價格將保持穩定。也許，我們對今年下半年更加樂觀——更加積極。是的，我們更加積極。但短期來看，我們的價格環境更加穩定。

There will be some announced -- previously announced project that everybody knows, some new projects that are coming to the market that everyone knows. There's no secret here. We are the ones that are producing or trying to produce lithium, that's the average we put together, plus we have a very strong view about the demand for this year and the demand in the future. And at the end, the cash cost, I don't think cash cost is so important in a market that is growing more than 20% per year.

將會有一些人人都知道的、之前宣布的項目，以及一些即將進入市場的新項目。這裡沒有秘密。我們是那些正在生產或試圖生產鋰的公司，這是我們加在一起的平均值，我們對今年的需求和未來的需求有非常強烈的看法。最後，現金成本，我認為現金成本在每年成長超過 20% 的市場中並不那麼重要。

I mean, if you're having a market growing that big in terms of lithium, you should consider the total cost because we need new projects, completely new projects every year in order to supply the demand. That's why what is important is to keep an eye. What is the total cost of new production coming to the market because that's what is relevant in order to see what is going to be the lithium price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide.

我的意思是，如果你的鋰市場成長如此之大，你應該考慮總成本，因為我們每年都需要新項目，全新的項目才能滿足需求。這就是為什麼重要的是要保持警惕。新產品進入市場的總成本是多少，因為這是了解碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰的鋰價格的相關因素。

Next question comes from Cesar Perez-Novoa with BTG Pactual.

下一個問題來自 BTG Pactual 的 Cesar Perez-Novoa。

Two questions here. On your iodine market assessment, you foresee demand growth in 2024, but your volumes, as you mentioned in the press release, will be flat. Is this because your production and global market share actually increased a lot in 2023 on the inception of Pampa Blanca.

這裡有兩個問題。根據您的碘市場評估，您預計 2024 年需求將成長，但正如您在新聞稿中提到的，您的產量將持平。這是因為 2023 年 Pampa Blanca 成立以來，你們的產量和全球市場份額實際上增加了很多。

And my second question relates to the Azure minerals transaction, you received competition law approval earlier this week. Can you please comment on the next milestones and subsequent filings that you need to make in that market, including your new report on the transaction.

我的第二個問題與 Azure 礦物交易有關，本週早些時候你們獲得了競爭法批准。您能否評論一下您需要在該市場進行的下一個里程碑和後續文件，包括您的新交易報告。

Cesar, this is Juan Pablo. Well, as we explained in the past, in the call of the last quarters, improving the capacity in iodine is really hard. Last year, even with a weaker demand than expected, we were able to bring up capacity and being able to cover the supply of our competitors that were below our expectations. So that's why during last year, we went up in our volumes, even the demand went down. We're expecting for 2024 to keep our ability to keep producing with Pampa Blanca as we have done in the past. But we may expect that some of our competitors recover their supply, and that's why we are considering flat sales, even the demand may be growing.

塞薩爾，這是胡安·巴勃羅。嗯，正如我們過去解釋的那樣，在過去幾個季度的號召中，提高碘的產能確實很困難。去年，即使需求弱於預期，我們仍能提高產能，並且能夠滿足競爭對手低於我們預期的供應。這就是為什麼去年我們的產量增加了，但需求卻下降了。我們預計到 2024 年，我們將能夠像過去一樣繼續在潘帕布蘭卡進行生產。但我們可能會預期我們的一些競爭對手會恢復供應，這就是為什麼我們正在考慮持平銷售，即使需求可能會成長。

Cesar, Ricardo, talking about the Azure project. So you have any further question about the iodine or go to the...

Cesar、Ricardo 談論 Azure 專案。如果您對碘還有任何疑問，請訪問...

No, no, that was my question actually on why volumes were flat.

不，不，這其實是我的問題，為什麼成交量持平。

Okay. About Azure, as you know, this kind of transaction in Australia are fully regulated by law and there's very specific procedure to follow. We have been under the procedure. We informed the Board of Azure of everything on time and the authorities on time. And the next steps are according to what is in the legal procedure. I don't want to comment about that in terms that there is a formal process we have to follow. And we have been following the formal process. And you can be sure that we will inform on time to the market when we move to the next step in the project. But we are fully committed with our partners. We are -- we think it's a great project, and we have a very good relation with Hancock and together, we think we're going to have a great project. That's what I want to say now.

好的。關於Azure，如您所知，澳洲的此類交易是完全受法律監管的，並且有非常具體的程序需要遵循。我們已經按照程序辦理了。我們及時向 Azure 董事會通報了一切，並及時向當局通報了情況。接下來的步驟將依照法律程序進行。我不想對此發表評論，因為我們必須遵循一個正式的流程。我們一直在遵循正式流程。您可以放心，當我們進入專案的下一步時，我們將及時向市場通報。但我們完全致力於我們的合作夥伴。我們認為這是一個偉大的項目，我們與漢考克有著非常好的關係，我們認為我們將有一個偉大的項目。這就是我現在想說的話。

And at this time, there are no further questioners in the queue, and this does conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Irina Axenova for any closing remarks.

此時，隊列中已經沒有其他提問者了，我們的問答環節就此結束。此時，我想請伊琳娜‧阿克塞諾娃 (Irina Axenova) 進行閉幕致詞。

Thank you, Chris, and thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to having you in our next call. Have a great day. Goodbye.

謝謝克里斯，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待您下次通話。祝你有美好的一天。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. And you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。