智利化工礦業 (SQM) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the SQM First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 SQM 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Irina Axenova, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 Irina Axenova。請繼續。

Thank you, Sara. Good morning. Thank you for joining SQM earnings conference call for the first quarter of 2023. This conference call will be recorded and is being webcast live. Our earnings press release and the presentation with a summary of the results have been uploaded into our website, where you can also find a link to the webcast.

謝謝你，薩拉。早上好。感謝您參加 SQM 2023 年第一季度的收益電話會議。本次電話會議將進行錄音並進行網絡直播。我們的收益新聞稿和包含結果摘要的演示文稿已上傳到我們的網站，您還可以在其中找到網絡廣播的鏈接。

Speaking on the call today will be Ricardo Ramos, Chief Executive Officer; and Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer. Carlos Dias, Executive Vice President of Lithium; Felipe Smith, Commercial Vice President of Lithium; and Juan Pablo Bellolio, Commercial Vice President of Iodine will also be available to answer any questions.

今天在電話會議上發言的是首席執行官里卡多·拉莫斯 (Ricardo Ramos)；和首席財務官 Gerardo Illanes。 Lithium 執行副總裁 Carlos Dias； Lithium 商業副總裁 Felipe Smith； Iodine 的商業副總裁 Juan Pablo Bellolio 也將回答任何問題。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that statements made in this conference call regarding our business outlook, future economic performance, anticipated profitability, revenues, expenses and other financial items along with expected cost synergies and product or service line growth, are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are not historical facts and may be subject to changes due to new information, future developments or other factors. We assume no obligation to update these statements, except as required by law. For a complete forward-looking statements, please refer to our earnings press release and presentations.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，本次電話會議中關於我們的業務前景、未來經濟表現、預期盈利能力、收入、費用和其他財務項目以及預期成本協同效應和產品或服務線增長的陳述被考慮在內根據聯邦證券法的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述並非歷史事實，可能會因新信息、未來發展或其他因素而發生變化。除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。如需完整的前瞻性陳述，請參閱我們的收益新聞稿和演示文稿。

I now leave with you -- I'll now leave you with our Chief Executive Officer, Ricardo Ramos.

我現在和你一起離開 - 我現在將和我們的首席執行官里卡多拉莫斯一起離開。

Good morning, and thank you for joining the call today. Yesterday, we reported our earnings for the first quarter of 2023. The results were affected by lower sales volumes in lithium and specialty plant nutrition business lines, partially offset by higher average prices when compared to the same period last year. We saw a decline in lithium demand in the beginning of the year, especially in China, which affected our sales volumes. High inventory levels across supply chain accumulated in the previous quarter and reduced cathode production volumes resulted in low customer purchasing activity and put pressure on market prices. Coming out of the first quarter, we have seen an increase in market activity with customers looking for more volume to buy, which signals the end of the destocking period and is also being reflected in the spot prices trending upwards in the recent weeks.

早上好，感謝您今天加入電話會議。昨天，我們報告了 2023 年第一季度的收益。結果受到鋰和特種植物營養業務線銷量下降的影響，部分被與去年同期相比較高的平均價格所抵消。今年年初，我們看到鋰需求下降，尤其是在中國，這影響了我們的銷量。上一季度整個供應鏈的高庫存水平積累和陰極產量的減少導致客戶採購活動低迷並給市場價格帶來壓力。從第一季度開始，我們看到市場活動有所增加，客戶尋求更多的購買量，這標誌著去庫存期的結束，也反映在最近幾週呈上升趨勢的現貨價格中。

We believe that the lithium market foundations are intact and have not changed our expectation for the lithium demand growth this year. During the first quarter of the year, the global electric vehicle sales continue to increase when compared to the same period last year, achieving almost 30% growth worldwide, with sales in China increasing almost 22% in Europe, almost 19% and over 50% in the U.S. We expect this growth to continue throughout the year with the total electric vehicle sales increasing over 2.5 million units in 2023.

我們認為鋰市場基礎完好，並未改變我們對今年鋰需求增長的預期。今年第一季度，全球電動汽車銷量與去年同期相比繼續增長，全球實現近30%的增長，其中中國銷量增長近22%，歐洲增長近19%，超過50%。在美國，我們預計這一增長將持續全年，到 2023 年電動汽車總銷量將增加 250 萬輛以上。

While we see new supply coming to the market this year, we believe that the softer price conditions on the stricter environmental requirements for mining operations have affected the economics of some of the high-cost suppliers as well as impacted the timing of new projects. Consequently, we expect that the lithium market will remain tight throughout the year.

雖然我們看到今年有新的供應進入市場，但我們認為，採礦作業更嚴格的環境要求導致的價格條件走軟已經影響了一些高成本供應商的經濟效益，並影響了新項目的時間安排。因此，我們預計全年鋰市場將保持緊張。

We will continue to focus on expanding our production capacity and fostering a strong relationship with our strategic customers. We are committed to investing in these areas to drive growth and maximize our sales volumes. With the reconfirmation of volumes from all our major customers for this year, we anticipate a steady increase in sales volume throughout the year, quarter-over-quarter. Since last year, we have made significant progress in transforming a majority of our contracts into flexible pricing conditions, utilize an index reference price with a lag between. We believe this approach allows us to respond swiftly to changes in the industry and provides greater flexibility to our customers.

我們將繼續專注於擴大我們的產能，並與我們的戰略客戶建立牢固的關係。我們致力於在這些領域進行投資，以推動增長並最大限度地提高我們的銷量。隨著我們所有主要客戶今年銷量的重新確認，我們預計全年銷量將環比穩步增長。自去年以來，我們在將我們的大部分合同轉變為靈活的定價條件方面取得了重大進展，利用了一個具有滯後性的指數參考價格。我們相信，這種方法使我們能夠迅速響應行業變化，並為我們的客戶提供更大的靈活性。

As I mentioned yesterday, we are very proud of the results in our caliche ore operations and specifically iodine business, which allow us to increase our sales volumes and ensure the supply of iodine to meet the growing demand of the x-ray contrast media segment. While global iodine demand is expected to be flat on the year as a result of the reduced demand in some of the iodine applications, we believe that contrast media segment will grow close to 7% a year. SQM is the only producer that has been able to increase materially its production volumes in the recent year.

正如我昨天提到的，我們對我們的鈣化礦業務尤其是碘業務的成果感到非常自豪，這使我們能夠增加銷量並確保碘的供應以滿足 X 射線造影劑領域不斷增長的需求。儘管由於某些碘應用的需求減少，全球碘需求預計與今年持平，但我們認為造影劑領域將以每年近 7% 的速度增長。 SQM 是近年來唯一一家能夠大幅提高產量的生產商。

Sustainability remains at the core of our operations as we continue to focus on reducing the carbon and water intensity of our products. I am pleased to announce that our 2022 sustainability report will be published next week and invite you to explore progress throughout the past year. We take pride in the achievement we have made and remain committed to advancing our sustainability development plan even further.

隨著我們繼續專注於降低產品的碳強度和水強度，可持續性仍然是我們運營的核心。我很高興地宣布，我們的 2022 年可持續發展報告將於下週發布，並邀請您探索過去一年的進展。我們為我們取得的成就感到自豪，並繼續致力於進一步推進我們的可持續發展計劃。

So we will now open the line to questions.

因此，我們現在將打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tiago Lofiego with Bradesco BBI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Tiago Lofiego 和 Bradesco BBI。

Actually, I have 2 questions. The first one is on lithium supply in the coming years. So how do you see new frontiers evolving? How do you look at Argentina, Brazil, Mexico as potential new frontiers. And still in that question, would you consider eventually exploring potential projects in those regions?

實際上，我有兩個問題。第一個是關於未來幾年的鋰供應。那麼，您如何看待新領域的發展？您如何看待阿根廷、巴西、墨西哥作為潛在的新領域。還是那個問題，你會考慮最終探索這些地區的潛在項目嗎？

And then the second question is about the National Lithium policy. Can you give us an update on how conversations are ongoing with Carrefour with the Chilean authorities? Any hope that a middle ground can be reached. So just want to hear your views on that.

然後第二個問題是關於國家鋰政策。您能否向我們介紹一下與家樂福與智利當局的對話進展情況？任何可以達成中間立場的希望。所以只想听聽您對此的看法。

This is Felipe Smith. I will try to answer your first question. So indeed, I mean we have always mentioned to the market that lithium is available everywhere. And there are, of course, today, we are seeing projects arising in different regions. We are, of course, following those developments. And as SQM, we have also said in the past, we are always interested in starting new projects in different parts of the world. So we are potentially also analyzing that possibility.

這是費利佩·史密斯。我將嘗試回答您的第一個問題。所以事實上，我的意思是我們一直向市場提到鋰隨處可見。當然，今天，我們看到不同地區出現了一些項目。當然，我們正在關注這些事態發展。作為 SQM，我們過去也說過，我們總是有興趣在世界不同地區開展新項目。因此，我們可能也在分析這種可能性。

Now one important statement that we have to add is that when we look at new projects, I mean here, the experience and know-how of the one who is responsible of that project is key because we have seen that in some cases, projects take too long or finally do not materialize as originally foreseen.

現在我們必須補充的一個重要聲明是，當我們審視新項目時，我的意思是，負責該項目的人的經驗和專業知識是關鍵，因為我們已經看到，在某些情況下，項目需要太長或最終沒有像最初預見的那樣實現。

Ricardo Ramos speaking now. Talking about the Codelco, we expect to start talks with Codelco in the coming weeks. As we have said before, we are looking for an agreement that would be positive for the country, the Antofagasta region, the communities and, of course, for the 2 companies.

里卡多·拉莫斯現在發言。談到 Codelco，我們預計將在未來幾週內開始與 Codelco 的談判。正如我們之前所說，我們正在尋求一項對國家、安託法加斯塔地區、社區，當然還有兩家公司都有利的協議。

About the -- what you call the -- we can call the National Lithium policy, as a company, we do not comment or give an opinion about what we call public policies. I think it's in a very interesting discussion, but it's a discussion that corresponds to political parties; you, the analyst; or the study centers that we have a lot of them in Chile; and the different unions that are also giving their opinions. We just want to start this conversation in the coming weeks, as I said before. We will report when it starts to the market.

關於 - 你所說的 - 我們可以稱之為國家鋰政策，作為一家公司，我們不會對我們所謂的公共政策發表評論或發表意見。我認為這是一個非常有趣的討論，但這是一個與政黨相對應的討論；你，分析師；或者我們在智利有很多的學習中心；以及也在發表意見的不同工會。正如我之前所說，我們只想在接下來的幾週內開始這場對話。當它開始投放市場時，我們會報告。

Fair enough. And if I may very quickly go back to Felipe. Felipe, which one of those regions do you see more potential growth within -- and I asked those specifically because of the geographical proximity to you guys. So Argentina, Mexico and Brazil, which one of those would you think that there is more potential for SQM and for the market in general?

很公平。如果我可以很快回到 Felipe。 Felipe，你認為這些地區中哪個地區的增長潛力更大——我特別問了那些地區，因為它們與你們在地理上很接近。那麼阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西，您認為其中哪一個在 SQM 和整個市場中具有更大的潛力？

Yes. I would say that today, our main focus is Australia as #1, let's say, potential area of development. We are already developing a project there, and we are studying different potential new projects. So I would say this is our #1 focus today.

是的。我要說的是，今天，我們的主要關注點是澳大利亞，它是排名第一的潛在發展區域。我們已經在那裡開發了一個項目，我們正在研究不同的潛在新項目。所以我想說這是我們今天的第一重點。

Our next question comes from Rafal Barcellos with Banco Santander.

我們的下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的 Rafal Barcellos。

My first question is related to lithium volumes. You mentioned that sales volumes have rebounded in the second Q, but I just would like to understand it's now at normal levels for the second Q or if you believe that it will take, for example, 2 more quarters for us to see volumes returning to normal levels.

我的第一個問題與鋰的體積有關。您提到第二季度的銷量已經反彈，但我只是想了解第二季度的銷量現在處於正常水平，或者如果您認為我們還需要 2 個季度才能看到銷量恢復到正常水平。

And my second question is related to CapEx. I just would like to understand how flexible is your 2023 CapEx guidance of $1.2 billion? And in which scenario you would consider reducing this CapEx level?

我的第二個問題與資本支出有關。我只想了解您 2023 年 12 億美元的資本支出指導有多靈活？在哪種情況下您會考慮降低資本支出水平？

Okay. Yes. Rafael, regarding the, volumes. Well, as Ricardo mentioned at the beginning of the call, we are very positive today because, first of all, the fundamentals of the demand are strong. The EP sales are showing an increase of 30% on the first quarter, which is already very positive. And we are also seeing that the customer activity has recovered. We are engaged in business discussions with our customers. Customers are buying again. So I would say that from a volume point of view, I can say that the second quarter will be substantially higher in volume than the first quarter, also will be higher than what was the second quarter of last year. And finally, I would say that, as we have said in the previous call, that the second semester volumes should be better than the first semester volumes.

好的。是的。拉斐爾，關於，卷。好吧，正如里卡多在電話會議開始時提到的那樣，我們今天非常樂觀，因為首先，需求的基本面很強勁。 EP 銷量比第一季度增長了 30%，這已經非常積極了。我們還看到客戶活動已經恢復。我們正在與客戶進行業務討論。客戶再次購買。所以我想說，從數量的角度來看，我可以說第二季度的數量將大大高於第一季度，也將高於去年第二季度。最後，我想說的是，正如我們在之前的電話會議中所說，第二學期的學習量應該比第一學期的學習量更好。

Just about the projects, just one comment. Our projects in the lithium business are so good that we are not even thinking about to reduce it. We don't foresee any scenario where we are going to reduce the CapEx. We are thinking about increasing our CapEx. We have new projects, new initiatives, and probably we have new projects in the lithium industries even in Chile we will announce during the next 2 quarters. But nowadays not forget about reducing, we are thinking about increasing.

關於項目，只有一個評論。我們在鋰業務的項目非常好，我們甚至沒有考慮減少它。我們沒有預見到任何我們要減少資本支出的情況。我們正在考慮增加資本支出。我們有新項目、新舉措，甚至在智利我們也可能在鋰行業有新項目，我們將在未來兩個季度宣布。但是現在不要忘記減少，我們正在考慮增加。

The next question comes from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Isabella Simonato。

I have 2 questions. First of all, on the iodine side. You mentioned, Ricardo, that prices should be resilient for the second quarter, but I'd like to hear more your views beyond that, I mean what you're seeing in terms of new supply. You mentioned that no one has been able to add supply. So if you could give a little bit more details on the midterm scenario.

我有兩個問題。首先，在碘方面。里卡多，你提到第二季度的價格應該具有彈性，但我想听聽你除此之外的更多觀點，我的意思是你在新供應方面所看到的。你提到沒有人能夠增加供應。所以，如果你能提供更多關於中期情景的細節。

And second of all, even though potash prices were down, the premium of SQM was relatively resilient during the quarter. So also, what are your expectations going forward?

其次，儘管鉀肥價格下跌，但本季度 SQM 的溢價相對具有彈性。那麼，您對未來有何期望？

Isabella, this is Juan Paolo. I'm going to answer the question about iodine. We believe that, as we mentioned that during the first half of the year, demand of supply is going to be stable. We think the same about prices for the second half of the year. It will depend on the demand and supply of the market finally. But what we see from today and onwards is like is that there is a segment of the contrast media market that is growing strongly, so there is a fundamental on the demand that should keep the market and demand strong. So unless more supply arrives to the market, we see the market more or less stable.

伊莎貝拉，這是胡安保羅。我要回答關於碘的問題。我們相信，正如我們提到的，在今年上半年，供應需求將保持穩定。我們對下半年的價格也有同樣的看法。最終還是要看市場的供求情況。但我們從今天和以後看到的是，造影劑市場的一部分正在強勁增長，因此需求的基本面應該保持市場和需求強勁。因此，除非有更多供應進入市場，否則我們認為市場或多或少會保持穩定。

Yes. About the potash and the relation between SPN, means especially the plant nutrition products, potassium nitrate and the relation with potash is important to consider that are not direct competitors. It means it's important to keep these numbers as a ratio, as an important indicator. But its different market, its different outcome, its different uses. But anyway, I think that today, price environment of potash nitrate is not bad, it's good. In turn, if you consider our average prices 2 years ago, whatever it means today, today prices are very good, and we're very positive about the potential demand in the near future. Things are just a little bit better now than what used to be doing in the first quarter, just to comment to you that first quarter this year were mainly affected in the sales in Europe. Europe is affected by the high inflation, high production costs of farmers. We had bad weather that has delayed crops. The uncertainty in the world also have caused agricultural activity to be lower than expected.

是的。關於鉀肥和SPN之間的關係，尤其是植物營養產品，硝酸鉀和鉀肥的關係是重要的考慮因素，不是直接的競爭對手。這意味著將這些數字作為一個重要指標來保持比率很重要。但它的市場不同，結果不同，用途不同。但無論如何，我認為今天硝酸鉀的價格環境還不錯，不錯。反過來，如果你考慮我們 2 年前的平均價格，無論今天意味著什麼，今天的價格都非常好，我們對不久的將來的潛在需求非常樂觀。現在的情況比第一季度要好一些，只是想告訴你今年第一季度主要受到歐洲銷售的影響。歐洲受高通脹影響，農民生產成本高。惡劣的天氣推遲了收成。世界的不確定性也導致農業活動低於預期。

But if you consider the other markets, mainly for example, United States, Mexico and other ones, we can say that we are more than -- we're close to a normal demand. That's why we think that we are more positive regarding the next 3 quarters, and we expect SPN, it means especially the plant nutrition business, 2023 volumes to slightly exceed higher than 2022 volumes. That's a good news we expect in the next 3 quarters.

但如果你考慮其他市場，主要是美國、墨西哥和其他市場，我們可以說我們超過——我們接近正常需求。這就是為什麼我們認為我們對未來 3 個季度更加樂觀，我們預計 SPN，特別是植物營養業務，2023 年的銷量將略高於 2022 年的銷量。這是我們預計未來 3 個季度的好消息。

Pricing, you are right, it will depend also for many conditions. But of course, if the potash price goes down, it will affect the price of potash and nitrate. In some way, yes, it will affect. But we have to see what is going to be the development of the pricing of potash and potassium nitrate still is not so clear for the future.

定價，你是對的，它還取決於許多條件。但當然，如果鉀肥價格下跌，將影響鉀肥和硝酸鹽的價格。在某種程度上，是的，它會影響。但鉀肥和硝酸鉀的定價走勢如何，還需拭目以待，未來仍不明朗。

Our next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Ben Isaacson。

Just a few questions. I'd like to ask them one by one, if that's okay. You sold 32,000 tonnes in Q1, which was a little bit lower than what most had expected. What does that mean for your overall guidance for the year in terms of volume? Can you give us some kind of range in terms of what we should expect?

只是幾個問題。我想一一問問他們，可以嗎？你們在第一季度售出了 32,000 噸，略低於大多數人的預期。這對您今年的整體銷量指導意味著什麼？你能給我們一些我們應該期望的範圍嗎？

Yes, Ben, I agree that Q1 was low, and we anticipated that it would be low. But as I said before in the previous question, we are very positive about the market situation now. So we expect a good second quarter, substantially better than the first, and we also expect that the second semester volumes will be higher than the first semester volumes.

是的，本，我同意第一季度很低，我們預計它會很低。但正如我之前在上一個問題中所說，我們對現在的市場形勢非常樂觀。所以我們預計第二季度會很好，比第一季度好得多，我們也預計第二學期的銷量會高於第一學期。

Okay. That's perfect. Second question is, I believe we saw 46,000 tons of exports from SQM, and you recognized 32,000 tons. Does that mean that you've paid CORFO royalty payments on the, whatever the difference is, 14,000 tons? And so you've paid maybe, I don't know, $150 million or something like that? That's as a prepayment. Is that correct?

好的。那很完美。第二個問題是，我相信我們看到 SQM 出口了 46,000 噸，而你承認了 32,000 噸。這是否意味著您已經支付了 14,000 噸的 CORFO 特許權使用費，無論差額是多少？所以你可能已經支付了，我不知道，1.5 億美元或類似的金額？那是預付款。那是對的嗎？

This is Gerardo Illanes. Well, that figure of 46,000 metric tons of exports, I'm not sure if it's the exact number that we are considering or that we consider during the first quarter exports. But you're right, we pay to CORFO at the moment we export based on the volumes that were exported during the quarter and the average sales price to third parties during that quarter. So in the first quarter, we export more than what we sell. And consequently, we pay to CORFO more than the actual calculation of the tonnage invoice to third parties times the price in with the third party.

這是杰拉爾多·伊利亞內斯。好吧，46,000 公噸的出口數字，我不確定這是我們正在考慮的確切數字還是我們在第一季度出口期間考慮的數字。但你是對的，我們在出口時根據本季度出口的數量和該季度對第三方的平均銷售價格向 CORFO 付款。所以在第一季度，我們的出口量超過了我們的銷售量。因此，我們向 CORFO 支付的費用超過實際計算的第三方噸位發票乘以與第三方的價格。

Right. Okay. Just 2 more quick ones if I may. In the past, you had mentioned some interest in investing potentially as joint ventures in Canada and the U.S. Earlier on the call, you said you're still most excited about Australia. Are you still looking in Canada and the U.S.? And any progress there?

正確的。好的。如果可以的話，再快 2 個。過去，您曾提到過有興趣在加拿大和美國投資合資企業。在電話會議的早些時候，您說您仍然對澳大利亞感到最興奮。你還在尋找加拿大和美國嗎？有什麼進展嗎？

If you -- we are open to do business almost everywhere in the world if it's good for us. We think that we have competitive advantages in lithium. We have a lot of experience. We know how to do it. We have commercial capacities and a lot of technical know-how. And of course, the U.S., Canada, Australia, everywhere is an alternative to look forward. But of course, Australia, for us, because we have an office there, we have a lot of -- we have some people there, seems like a very interesting place. We are open to review, and we are reviewing alternatives all around the world.

如果你——如果對我們有利的話，我們幾乎可以在世界任何地方開展業務。我們認為我們在鋰方面具有競爭優勢。我們有很多經驗。我們知道該怎麼做。我們擁有商業能力和大量的技術訣竅。當然，美國、加拿大、澳大利亞，到處都是值得期待的選擇。但是當然，澳大利亞對我們來說，因為我們在那裡有一個辦公室，我們有很多——我們有一些人在那裡，這似乎是一個非常有趣的地方。我們對審查持開放態度，我們正在審查世界各地的替代方案。

Last question if I may. You said in the press release that you believe destocking has been concluded. Can you just give a little bit more color in terms of what you mean by that? What data points are you seeing? What locations, kind of where in the supply chain have we seen destocking finished?

最後一個問題，如果可以的話。你在新聞稿中說，你認為去庫存已經結束。你能就你的意思給出更多的顏色嗎？您看到了哪些數據點？我們在供應鏈的哪些位置、哪些位置看到去庫存已經完成？

Yes. I mean, of course, the main issue with lower demand happened in China as you know, as you may know, China concentrated mainly the lower demand. And it's also in China where we are seeing this activity of purchasing restarting strongly. And I would say strongly, I want to highlight that. So the fact that you see also the indexes changing is a very good sign that what we are reading is also what, in general, the market is reading. So the customers are buying again, and that means definitely that they need to start that they reached their lower stock levels and now they are rebuilding stocks and consuming.

是的。我的意思是，當然，需求下降的主要問題發生在中國，正如你所知，中國主要集中了較低的需求。在中國，我們也看到這種採購活動強勁重啟。我要強烈地說，我想強調這一點。因此，您也看到指數也在變化，這是一個很好的跡象，表明我們正在閱讀的內容通常也是市場正在閱讀的內容。所以客戶再次購買，這肯定意味著他們需要開始達到較低的庫存水平，現在他們正在重建庫存和消費。

Our next question comes from Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Corinne Blanchard。

I missed actually the beginning of the call, so I hope my question hasn't been asked or you haven't made a comment on this. But we're trying to get maybe some clarity on your negotiation with Codelco on the government. And again, I'm not sure if you shared something on the prepared remark because I was not able to join, but just really trying to understand where we stand, where could be the likely scenario coming out of those negotiations would be helpful.

我實際上錯過了電話的開頭，所以我希望我的問題沒有被問到，或者你沒有對此發表評論。但我們正試圖弄清楚您與 Codelco 就政府問題進行的談判。再一次，我不確定你是否分享了一些關於準備好的評論的內容，因為我無法加入，但只是想真正了解我們的立場，這些談判可能產生的情況會在哪裡有所幫助。

Okay. Sorry, but we expect to start the talks with Codelco in the coming weeks. I think we need to wait until we have an idea about the conversation. But I think both sides, Codelco and SQM, we're open to look for alternatives that are going to be -- if they are positive for the country, the Antofagasta region, the communities and of course, the 2 companies. Today, I think it's not possible to have an estimate of the time we will be required in the negotiation, what kind of negotiation we will have. I think we need to start the process, and it's going to start in the next -- in the coming weeks.

好的。抱歉，我們希望在未來幾週內開始與 Codelco 的談判。我認為我們需要等到我們對對話有了一個想法。但我認為，Codelco 和 SQM 雙方都願意尋找未來的替代方案——如果它們對國家、安託法加斯塔地區、社區，當然還有兩家公司有利的話。今天，我認為不可能估計我們在談判中需要的時間，我們將進行什麼樣的談判。我認為我們需要開始這個過程，它將在接下來的幾週內開始。

All right. And then maybe trying to understand that it's a bit better like the volume and pricing that we could expect for lithium for the remaining of the year. I mean, obviously, you mentioned the destocking being nearly dawning. I think based on market shakes, it seems to really have happened. Do you still feel comfortable with the cadence of capacity and your production cadence that you have versus the sale that you can realize for the rest of the year?

好的。然後可能會試圖理解它有點像我們在今年剩餘時間裡對鋰的預期數量和定價。我的意思是，很明顯，你提到去庫存即將來臨。我認為基於市場動盪，這似乎真的發生了。您是否仍然對產能節奏和生產節奏與今年剩餘時間可以實現的銷售相比感到滿意？

Yes, Corinne. Well, as I said before, we are positive about the volumes in the second semester and also in Q2.

是的，科琳娜。好吧，正如我之前所說，我們對第二學期和第二季度的銷量持樂觀態度。

Regarding pricing, I mean we will repeat this as a mantra. So supply/demand, the prices are basically following the supply/demand balance. So it's very difficult to predict, and the market has shown this year that it has been very fluctuating. We started the year with high prices. Then by mid-April, we reached very low level prices in China. We are -- we have seen those prices recovering now in the range of mid-30s. But what will happen from now until the end of the year is something definitely we cannot predict. It will depend on the -- not only on the continuation of the customer activity, but also on the supply coming at the right time and so on. So -- but Felipe, what do you -- you can comment to us about your mood, your personal mood?

關於定價，我的意思是我們將重複這一點作為口頭禪。所以供需，價格基本上遵循供需平衡。所以很難預測，今年市場表現出波動很大。我們以高價開始了這一年。然後到 4 月中旬，我們在中國達到了非常低的價格水平。我們 - 我們已經看到這些價格現在在 30 多歲左右的範圍內回升。但從現在到年底會發生什麼，我們絕對無法預測。這將取決於 - 不僅取決於客戶活動的持續性，還取決於在正確時間到來的供應等等。所以——但是 Felipe，你怎麼——你可以向我們評論你的心情，你的個人心情嗎？

That's very important for me. Ricardo, I am in a very good mood.

這對我來說非常重要。里卡多，我心情很好。

Better than 1 month ago, no?

比 1 個月前好，不是嗎？

Better than 1 month ago, for sure. I was in China, and I will go to China again. So I see that the activity is much, much higher today. So Corinne, we expect good volumes.

肯定比 1 個月前好。我在中國，我還會再去中國。所以我看到今天的活動要高得多。所以 Corinne，我們預計會有很好的銷量。

That's what really matters for me.

這對我來說才是真正重要的。

Yes.

是的。

For the other side, sorry, Corinne, Carlos Diaz, as you mentioned that our production plan is not changing. That means we are running at full capacity in Chile, and we expect to start producing soon in China at the end of the year in Australia. So it doesn't change anything regarding to keeping producing as full capacity.

另一方面，抱歉，Corinne、Carlos Diaz，正如您提到的，我們的生產計劃沒有改變。這意味著我們在智利滿負荷運轉，我們預計年底將很快在中國開始在澳大利亞生產。因此，它不會改變關於保持滿負荷生產的任何事情。

Yes. Probably we will change and we will increase some of our projects. That's what we expect from Carlos to announce everyone that we expect to do something better and to move forward in production, move forward in new technology forward and new qualities. It means we are very, very positive in order that we will increase our CapEx in order to do something better. That's what we expect for the near future.

是的。可能我們會改變，我們會增加一些項目。這就是我們期望 Carlos 向所有人宣布我們希望做得更好並在生產中取得進步，在新技術和新品質方面取得進步。這意味著我們非常非常積極地增加我們的資本支出以做得更好。這就是我們對不久的將來的期望。

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Joel Jackson。

This is Joseph on for Joel. So just in terms of lithium pricing, can you just discuss, please, how Q2 is trending so far versus Q1 realizations? And also, we've seen recently very big disparity, obviously, between Chinese spot prices and the broader Asian and European prices. So we're just wondering which regional benchmarks would be the most relevant for us to look at for SQM and which ones do you guys follow primarily.

這是喬爾的約瑟夫。因此，就鋰定價而言，您能否討論一下，到目前為止，第二季度的趨勢與第一季度的實現情況相比如何？而且，我們最近看到中國現貨價格與更廣泛的亞洲和歐洲價格之間明顯存在巨大差異。所以我們只是想知道哪些區域基準對我們來說與 SQM 最相關，以及你們主要遵循哪些基準。

Well, we have sales more or less in all the main markets. So -- and our contracts, we have explained in the past, our contracts are...

好吧，我們在所有主要市場或多或少都有銷售。所以——我們的合同，我們過去已經解釋過，我們的合同是……

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

This is your conference operator. Please stand by while we reconnect. You may proceed with your call.

這是您的會議接線員。我們重新連接時請稍候。您可以繼續通話。

Yes. Thank you. We're back. Joel? Any questions from Joel?

是的。謝謝。我們回來了。喬爾？喬爾有什麼問題嗎？

Joel, are you there? Sorry, we had a problem with the connection with SQM?

喬爾，你在嗎？抱歉，我們與 SQM 的連接有問題？

No worries. Yes. So just in terms of pricing, first, just wondering kind of how Q2 has been trending so far versus Q1 realizations. And yes, just given the disparity that we've seen in Chinese spot prices versus Asian and European prices, which regional benchmarks would be the best for us to follow and most relevant for SQM. And we're just wondering which ones you guys look at primarily.

不用擔心。是的。因此，就定價而言，首先，只是想知道到目前為止第二季度的趨勢與第一季度的實現情況相比如何。是的，鑑於我們在中國現貨價格與亞洲和歐洲價格中看到的差異，哪些區域基準最適合我們遵循，並且與 SQM 最相關。我們只是想知道你們主要關注哪些。

Yes. I don't know how much you heard from my previous comments, Joel. But basically, I was trying to explain that depending on where we sell, we follow different indexes. Most of our demand is concentrated same as the global demand. Our sales is also concentrated in Asia. So that's what I can comment. Yes.

是的。喬爾，我不知道你從我之前的評論中聽到了多少。但基本上，我試圖解釋，根據我們的銷售地點，我們遵循不同的指數。我們的大部分需求與全球需求一樣集中。我們的銷售也集中在亞洲。這就是我可以評論的內容。是的。

Our next question comes from Lucas Ferreira from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的盧卡斯費雷拉。

I have 2 questions and 2 follow-ups. One is on the realized price. Again, I think that realized price that you posted in the first quarter, correct me if I'm wrong, but implies that most of your sales happen probably in the month of March, right, when prices were lower. I mean probably because with prices on a free fall, your clients maybe waited a little bit to put orders, and then you probably sold most of the volumes towards the end of the quarter. So my question is, looking at the second quarter, if we can expect something similar to happen, so most of your sales happening more towards the bottom we saw in Asia? And if not, if you're being able to sort of capitalize a way to sell a better -- at a better prices more towards the end of the quarter since the prices are up more than 50% already from the lows. So just so we can better calibrate here our expectations for the realized price in 2Q given all the volatility.

我有 2 個問題和 2 個跟進。一個是實際價格。再一次，我認為你在第一季度發布的實際價格，如果我錯了請糾正我，但這意味著你的大部分銷售可能發生在 3 月份，對，當時價格較低。我的意思是可能是因為價格直線下跌，您的客戶可能會稍等片刻才能下訂單，然後您可能會在本季度末賣出大部分數量。所以我的問題是，看看第二季度，我們是否可以預期會發生類似的事情，那麼你們的大部分銷售更多地發生在我們在亞洲看到的底部？如果沒有，如果你能夠利用某種方式來銷售更好的產品——在本季度末以更好的價格出售，因為價格已經從低點上漲了 50% 以上。因此，鑑於所有波動，我們可以在這裡更好地校准我們對第二季度實現價格的預期。

The other question, maybe to Ricardo, sorry to come back to the same issue of the Codelco negotiations. And I know that it's just starting, it's a very sensitive issue to the company. But just wanted to understand from you in the company, if there's any aspect of this negotiation that is sort of negotiable for you, for instance, the control of the Atacama, is this something that you would be willing to give away in exchange for better economic terms? Or for whatever reason, do you think the company needs to keep the control of the operations or how you deal with the Carmen plant? Is that something that you are willing to contribute to an event for a negotiation? Or the plant is not -- could not be part of negotiation? So how to think about sort of the big level important things for these stocks.

另一個問題，可能是給里卡多的，很抱歉回到與 Codelco 談判的同一問題。我知道這才剛剛開始，這對公司來說是一個非常敏感的問題。但只是想從公司的你那裡了解到，如果這次談判的任何方面對你來說都是可以談判的，例如，阿塔卡馬的控制權，你是否願意放棄以換取更好的東西經濟條件？或者出於任何原因，您認為公司需要保持對運營的控制，或者您如何處理卡門工廠？這是您願意為談判活動做出的貢獻嗎？或者工廠不是——不能參與談判？那麼如何考慮這些股票的重要事項。

Okay. Regarding your first question, Lucas. In general, Q1 tends to concentrate towards the end of the quarter because you have always the Chinese New Year in between at the end of January and sometimes early February. And in particular, this year, the start was even slower because of the things we have explained in the past about the some prebuying occurred at the end of last year. Okay? But in Q2, the situation is different. Situation is -- so far, is showing that it is a more stable volume pattern.

好的。關於你的第一個問題，盧卡斯。一般來說，Q1 傾向於集中在季度末，因為在 1 月底和 2 月初之間總是有農曆新年。特別是今年，由於我們過去解釋過一些預購發生在去年年底，因此起步更慢。好的？但到了Q2，情況就不同了。到目前為止，情況表明這是一個更穩定的成交量模式。

Yes. I think I want to repeat -- sorry, it's repeating the same, but we expect to start the meetings on conversation with Codelco in coming weeks. We are not in the middle of the process as we speak. That's why that we have to wait until we sit together and we start talking about opportunities. We think we can create value to both companies. We think that if we have an agreement, this agreement has to be good for everyone. It has to be good for communities, for the region, for the country, for Codelco and for SQM. I had to answer my shareholders. It means all of my shareholders and that if we have an agreement, it's going to be a good agreement for us. But I think it's important to go to the meetings and have and understand different positions. And of course, I think it's a very bad idea to send any message to Codelco indirectly. It means if I had something to say to them, I will do it during the table, during the negotiation in a confidential basis. I think keep it confidential, keeping a process that we can get and reach an agreement is very, very important. If we start publicly discussing alternatives, it will not be a very good idea, not in terms of confidentiality, not in terms of having a productive negotiation. But again, it's going to start in the coming weeks, and we will keep everyone informed. If it is necessary to inform, we will. But we will try to keep it confidential because it's going to be good for the process. That's my main statement about that.

是的。我想我想重複 - 抱歉，重複相同的內容，但我們希望在未來幾週內開始與 Codelco 對話的會議。正如我們所說，我們不在進程的中間。這就是為什麼我們必須等到我們坐在一起開始談論機會的原因。我們認為我們可以為兩家公司創造價值。我們認為，如果我們達成協議，該協議必須對每個人都有好處。它必須有利於社區、地區、國家、Codelco 和 SQM。我必須回答我的股東。這意味著我所有的股東，如果我們達成協議，這對我們來說將是一個很好的協議。但我認為參加會議並了解不同的立場很重要。當然，我認為間接向Codelco 發送任何消息都是一個非常糟糕的主意。這意味著如果我有話要對他們說，我會在談判期間，在保密的基礎上，在談判桌上說。我認為保密，保持我們可以獲得併達成協議的流程非常非常重要。如果我們開始公開討論備選方案，這不是一個好主意，無論是在保密方面，還是在進行富有成效的談判方面。但同樣，它將在未來幾週內開始，我們會隨時通知所有人。如果有必要通知，我們會通知。但我們會盡量保密，因為這對流程有好處。這是我對此的主要陳述。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Irina Axenova for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Irina Axenova 作閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining our call today, and apologies for some technical issues we're having. We look forward to having our next conference. Have a great day, everyone.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，對於我們遇到的一些技術問題深表歉意。我們期待著召開下一次會議。祝大家有個美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。