智利化工礦業 (SQM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the SQM third quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

大家好，感謝各位的耐心等待。歡迎參加SQM 2025年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, [Megan Suter], Investor Relations team. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製。現在我將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係團隊的梅根·蘇特女士。請開始吧。

Good day, and thank you for joining SQM's earnings conference call for the third quarter of 2025. This call is being recorded and webcast live. Our earnings press release and accompanying results presentation are available on our website, along with a link to the webcast.

大家好，感謝參加SQM 2025年第三季財報電話會議。本次會議將進行錄音和網路直播。我們的財報新聞稿和相關業績簡報以及網路直播連結均可在公司網站上找到。

Today's participants include Mr. Ricardo Ramos, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Gerardo Illanes, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Carlos Diaz, CEO of the Lithium Chile division; Mr. Pablo Altimira, CEO of the Iodine and Plant Nutrition division, and Mr. Mark Fones, CEO of the International Lithium division.

今天的參與者包括：執行長里卡多·拉莫斯先生；首席財務官赫拉爾多·伊利亞內斯先生；智利鋰業部門首席執行官卡洛斯·迪亞茲先生；碘和植物營養部門首席執行官巴勃羅·阿爾蒂米拉先生；以及國際鋰業部門首席執行官馬克·福內斯先生。

Also joining us today are members of our commercial and business intelligence team: Mr. Felipe Smith, Commercial Vice President of the Lithium Chile division; Mr. Pablo Hernandez, Vice President of Strategy and Development of the Lithium Chile division; Mr. Pamao Veolia Commercial Vice President, Plant Nutrition and Specialty Products; and Mr. Andreas Fontenot, Commercial Vice President of International Lithium Division.

今天與我們一同出席的還有我們商業和商業情報團隊的成員：智利鋰業部門商業副總裁 Felipe Smith 先生；智利鋰業部門戰略與發展副總裁 Pablo Hernandez 先生；植物營養和特種產品商業副總裁 Pamao Veolia 先生；以及國際鋰業部門商業副總裁 Andreas Fontenot 先生。

Before we begin, please note that statements made during this call regarding our business outlook, future economic performance, anticipated profitability, revenues, expenses, and other financial items, along with expected cost synergies and product and service line growth are considered forward-looking statements under US federal securities laws.

在開始之前，請注意，本次電話會議中有關我們業務前景、未來經濟表現、預期盈利能力、收入、支出和其他財務項目，以及預期成本協同效應和產品及服務線增長的聲明，均屬於美國聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。

These statements are not historical facts and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. We assume no obligation to update these statements, except as required by law. For a full discussion of forward-looking statements, please refer to our earnings press release and presentation.

這些陳述並非歷史事實，且受風險和不確定因素的影響，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。有關前瞻性陳述的完整討論，請參閱我們的獲利新聞稿和簡報。

With that, I will now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Ricardo Ramos.

接下來，我將把電話交給我們的執行長里卡多·拉莫斯先生。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. During the third quarter, we experienced a more favorable pricing environment for lithium compared with the previous period. Although the market remains highly volatile, we are cautiously optimistic our realized average prices increase and while we expect this positive trend to continue in the fourth quarter, we remain focused in high-quality production being a reliable supplier, increasing volumes, and continuing to advance our cost reduction initiatives.

謝謝大家。早安，各位，感謝你們今天參加我們的會議。第三季度，鋰的價格環境較上一季更為有利。儘管市場波動依然劇烈，但我們對實際平均價格的上漲持謹慎樂觀態度，並預期這一積極趨勢將在第四季度延續。同時，我們將繼續專注於高品質生產，成為可靠的供應商，提高產量，並持續推進成本削減計畫。

Demand fundamentals remain strong, not only for electric vehicles but also from energy storage systems, which already account for more than 20% of global lithium demand. Operationally, the quarter was very strong. We delivered the high gas lithium sales volumes in SQM's history, supported by lower cost and strong efficiencies at our -- operations.

需求基本面依然強勁，不僅電動車領域如此，儲能係統領域亦是如此，後者已佔全球鋰需求的20%以上。營運方面，本季表現非常出色。由於成本降低和營運效率的顯著提升，我們實現了SQM史上最高的鋰氣銷售量。

Our Australian operation also continued to progress as planned (inaudible) sales increased significantly. We initiated lithium hydroxide production, and we reached record sales volumes of spodumene concentrate, an important milestone from this project. We expect commercial activity to remain robust in the fourth quarter.

我們在澳洲的業務也按計畫持續推進，銷售額顯著成長。我們啟動了氫氧化鋰的生產，鋰輝石精礦的銷售也創下歷史新高，這是該計畫的一個重要里程碑。我們預計第四季度的商業活動將保持強勁勢頭。

Outside the lithium segment, performance was also solely. In Iodine and Plant Nutrition results remain strong. Iodine prices continue at high levels with a balanced supply-demand environment, construction of our seawater pipeline is now more than 80% complete, giving us the ability to bring additional iodine to the market earlier than expected if required.

除鋰業務外，碘和植物營養業務的表現也表現強勁。碘價持續高企，供需平衡，海水管道建設已完成80%以上，如有需要，我們能夠比預期更早向市場投放更多碘。

We are also expanding our iodine production capacity through the development of a third operation in Maria Elena, which will add 1,500 tons of iodine capacity. This further strengthens our long-term supply position and reinforces our reputation as a reliable supplier.

我們也透過在瑪麗亞·埃琳娜新建第三條生產線來擴大碘產能，該生產線將新增1500噸碘產能。這將進一步鞏固我們的長期供應地位，並提升我們作為可靠供應商的聲譽。

In Fertilizer, we continue to see healthy demand and stable price across most key markets. Our specialty plant nutrition business delivered discrete but sustainable growth compared with last year, both in volumes and revenues. The shift -- so our tailor-made solutions and high-grade value blends continues to improve our product mix and supports our strategy of allocating products to the most attractive markets.

在化肥領域，我們看到大多數主要市場的需求依然強勁，價格也保持穩定。與去年相比，我們的特種植物營養業務在銷售和收入方面均實現了穩定成長。這種轉變——即我們量身定制的解決方案和高價值的混合肥料——持續優化我們的產品組合，並支持我們將產品分配到最具吸引力市場的策略。

In iodine, revenues increased 5% year on year with prices averaging close to $73 per kilogram. The x-ray contrast media segment, the largest end-use application continues to grow steadily and remains a key driver of long-term demand.

碘的銷售額年增5%，平均價格接近每公斤73美元。 X光造影劑是最大的終端應用領域，其業務持續穩定成長，仍然是長期需求的關鍵驅動力。

We also complete a detailed review of our CapEx program for the period 2025, 2027. Total CapEx is now estimated at $2.7 billion over the three-year period. Our plan maintains a focus on increasing production capacity, preserving low-cost ensuring high product quality, and upholding strong sustainability standards.

我們也完成了2025年至2027年資本支出計畫的詳細審查。目前預計三年內資本支出總額為27億美元。我們的計畫將繼續專注於提高產能、維持低成本、確保產品品質，並堅持嚴格的永續發展標準。

While some investment decisions have been delayed, this does not affect our ability to meet the production and sales objectives set for each of our divisions.

雖然有些投資決策有所延遲，但這並不影響我們實現各部門設定的生產和銷售目標的能力。

Finally, as announced last week by (inaudible), we received approval from China's antitrust authority. We look forward to advancing this joint venture before the end of the year. Thank you.

最後，正如上週（聽不清楚）宣布的那樣，我們已獲得中國反壟斷機構的批准。我們期待在年底前推進這項合資項目。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

I'll ask my questions one by one. Can you talk about what you're seeing right now in lithium demand? Particularly, I want to maybe investigate. It seems like inside China, the demand forecast for lithium are a lot higher, like for forecast they're coming from Chinese forecasters as opposed to people outside China and the Western world seems to have a lower demand forecast. Do you see this disconnect? Is it around energy storage in China? Can you talk about that thing?

我會逐一提問。您能談談您目前觀察到的鋰需求情況嗎？我尤其想深入了解。似乎在中國國內，鋰的需求預測值遠高於其他國家，尤其是來自中國以外的預測機構，而西方國家的需求預測值似乎較低。您也觀察到這種差異了嗎？這是否與中國的儲能市場有關？您能談談這方面嗎？

Pablo Altimira here. So regarding 2025 demand expectations, we have recently improved since our last earning calls, so driven by stronger-than-expected EV sales, particularly in Europe and the sharp increase that you mentioned BSS shipments.

我是Pablo Altimira。關於2025年的需求預期，我們最近有所改善，這主要得益於電動車銷量強於預期，尤其是在歐洲，以及您提到的BSS出貨量的大幅增長。

So we expect demand to reach over 1.5 million metric tons this year, representing an over 25% growth. In terms of China, it continues to maintain a significant lead in the EV market. We've an expected 30% year on year growth, representing more than 60% of the global EV sales.

因此，我們預計今年需求量將超過150萬噸，成長超過25%。就中國而言，其在電動車市場持續保持顯著領先地位。我們預計中國電動車年銷量將年增30%，佔全球電動車總銷量的60%以上。

And regarding the other significant EV markets, Europe this year had a very strong first three quarters with more than 30% year-over-year growth. In the US, they still had lower growth of 10% year over year, while the rest of the world, of course, had strong numbers reaching 40% year-over-year growth.

至於其他重要的電動車市場，歐洲今年前三個季度表現非常強勁，較去年同期成長超過30%。美國年增10%，成長率仍較低，而世界其他地區則表現強勁，年成長率高達40%。

Okay. You, on your last quarter talked about Chilean production for lithium to be up about 10% for you. And then you have about 10 -- excuse me, 20,000 tons for your share at Mr. Holland, are you still maintaining that 10% year over year at Atacama? And then should we now expect something closer to 24,000, 25,000 tonnes for the year out of Mt. Holland in [spodumene].

好的。您在上個季度提到，智利鋰產量將成長約10%。然後，您在霍蘭德山礦區（Mt. Holland）的份額約為10,000噸——抱歉，應該是20,000噸。您能否繼續維持阿塔卡馬地區10%的年成長率？那麼，我們現在是否可以預期霍蘭德山礦區今年的鋰輝石產量將接近24,000至25,000噸？

Joe, this is Gerardo. Just to be clear, are you asking about production or sales?

喬，我是傑拉爾多。請問，您問的是生產方面的問題還是銷售方面的問題？

Well, you gave guidance last quarter that Atacama production or sales at the low would be up 10% this year, and then you'd have 20,000 tons out of Mr. Holland. In this particular quarter release, you said Q4 volumes will be similar to Q3 at Mr. Holland, which would imply more than 20,000 tonnes out of Mt. Holland.

上個季度您曾表示，阿塔卡馬煤礦今年的產量或銷售量（低谷期）將成長10%，而霍蘭德山煤礦的產量將達到2萬噸。在本季財報中，您提到霍蘭德山煤礦第四季的產量將與第三季持平，這意味著霍蘭德山煤礦的產量將超過2萬噸。

So I mean, maybe what do you expect out of Atacama, it what production do you expect in Chile this year? What production do you expect in Australia this year? Let's do it like that.

所以我的意思是，你對阿塔卡馬沙漠有什麼期待？你對今年智利的產量有什麼期待？你對今年澳洲的產量有什麼期待？我們就這麼討論吧。

Joe, this is Carlos Dias. Well, our approach in is going to according we schedule, we expect to produce this year close to 230,000. That is lithium coming from the (inaudible) to those is processed in Chile and 50% is going to be processed in China started for our lithium sulfate production that we have been very successful with that.

喬，我是卡洛斯·迪亞斯。嗯，我們的計畫是按部就班地進行，預計今年產量將接近23萬噸。這些鋰來自（聽不清楚），一部分在智利加工，50%將在中國加工。我們硫酸鋰的生產已經啟動，而且非常成功。

We'll continue working with negative expansion for next year, and we expect to grow next year. We still don't have the final figure, but I'll continue working increase the production. That is regarding to the lithium production in Chile.

我們將繼續努力應對明年的負成長，並預計明年將實現成長。目前我們還沒有最終數據，但我會繼續努力提高產量。這是指智利的鋰產量。

Joe, this is Mark Fones. To answer the second part of your question. Yes, we maintain our production estimation or forecast for this year, which you may recall, it was between 150,000 to 170,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate at 5.5%. So that still holds and regarding the sales projection, which you were referring to of 20,000 tonnes LCE for this year, that you are also right, we are increasing that to a range between 23,000 and 24,000 tons.

喬，我是馬克‧福恩斯。關於你問題的第二部分，是的，我們維持今年的產量預估或預測不變。你可能還記得，我們​​之前的預估是5.5%鋰輝石精礦產量在15萬至17萬噸之間。所以這個預估仍然有效。至於你提到的銷售預測，即今年2萬噸LCE（液態碳當量），你說得對，我們將其上調至2.3萬至2.4萬噸之間。

Okay. That's perfect. And then my last question would be, when we look at the different average selling price for lithium you get between Chile and international, it's about a $3,000 to $4,000 a tonne discount, should we think about as that's the conversion cost that are basically embedded because you have to pay a toller to produce spodumene an LC basis. And then would we expect that international price discount versus the Chilean price realized to decrease across 2026 as you ramp up the Kwinana hydroxide conversion plant.

好的，太好了。我的最後一個問題是，智利鋰的平均售價與國際市場相比，大約每噸低3000到4000美元。我們是否應該把這部分成本看作是內嵌的轉化成本，因為你需要支付加工商的費用來生產鋰輝石（以LC為基礎）？隨著奎納納氫氧化物轉化工廠的產能提升，我們是否預期到2026年，國際價格與智利實際價格之間的折扣會縮小？

Joe, this is Andres Fontannaz. Regarding prices for the SQM International Leasing division, please keep in mind that most of our sales are concentrated on spodumene. So more than 90% of our third quarter sales were explained by spodumene and right now, we are reporting all of our sales as lithium carbonate equivalent. So in order to compare those prices with the prices that we are getting in the Chilean operation you need to take into consideration the conversion factors and also the refining costs. So that would make a more fair comparison.

喬，我是安德烈斯·豐塔納茲。關於SQM國際租賃部門的價格，請注意，我們的大部分銷售額都集中在鋰輝石上。第三季超過90%的銷售額都來自鋰輝石，而目前我們所有的銷售額都以碳酸鋰當量計價。因此，為了將這些價格與我們在智利業務中獲得的價格進行比較，您需要考慮換算係數和精煉成本。這樣才能進行更公平的比較。

Right. So my question is then across 2026, as Kwinanna ramps up, shouldn't the -- shouldn't you -- shouldn't international price rise, realized price on an LTE basis rise closer to the Chilean price as Kwinana ramps up next year.

沒錯。所以我的問題是，到了 2026 年，隨著 Kwinanna 的產能提升，國際價格，也就是基於 LTE 的實際價格，難道不應該隨著 Kwinanna 明年產能的提升而更接近智利的價格嗎？

Joe, this is Gerardo. Next year or starting from next quarter, we're going to report the numbers from Australia as the product sold. So if this is spodomene or lithium hydroxide, you will see the breakdown, so you will not have this confusion of prices without the conversion cost or not.

喬，我是傑拉爾多。明年或從下個季度開始，我們將按產品銷售情況報告澳洲的銷售數據。所以，無論是鋰輝石還是氫氧化鋰，你都會看到詳細的分類，這樣你就不會再對價格是否包含轉換成本感到困惑了。

Lucas Ferreira, JPMorgan.

盧卡斯費雷拉，摩根大通。

Hope you can hear me well. My first question is just to make sure I understand the part of China production, so are you already running 50,000 tonnes there? Because I remember the capacity was something around 8,000 tonnes with potential tolling of another 20,000. So I was wondering if there is more capacity to be used in China next year if the market remains good as it is right now in terms of prices? Is China already full capacity?

希望您能聽清楚。我的第一個問題是為了確認我對中國生產部分的理解是否正確，您目前在中國的產能是5萬噸嗎？因為我記得產能大約是8000噸，還有2萬噸的潛在加工能力。所以我想知道，如果明年市場價格維持目前的良好勢頭，中國是否還有更多產能可以利用？中國的產能是否已經飽和？

And the other question I have is also a follow-up on the JV with (inaudible). If imagine the signing, like Ricardo mentioned by the end of the year, if there is any sort of retroactive payments that SQM has to do for the year 2025, given that it took long to sign the contract, so in other words, when you look at the free cash flow of the company, even though you consolidate -- most likely consolidate the full thing, is there any sort of adjustment effect or cash transfers that we should be aware of when the contract is fully signed?

我還有一個問題，也是關於與（聽不清楚）的合資企業的後續事宜。假設像Ricardo提到的那樣，在年底前簽署協議，考慮到簽署合約耗時較長，SQM是否需要為2025年支付任何追溯款項？換句話說，當我們查看公司的自由現金流時，即使合併——很可能是合併全部——在合約完全簽署後，是否存在任何需要我們注意的調整效應或現金轉移？

Lucas, Ricardo speaking here. First, you're right in terms that we have to pay a dividend to (inaudible) during next year. This dividend will be in relation of the tonnage of volume that belongs to Codelco according to the joint venture agreement and we will put in our accounting this value as soon as we finish the agreement.

盧卡斯，我是里卡多。首先，你說得對，我們明年確實需要向（聽不清楚）支付股利。根據合資協議，這筆股利將與屬於科德爾科公司的噸位掛鉤，一旦協議完成，我們將立即把這個數值計入帳目。

That's -- it has been stated very clearly in our financial statements that we have to do it as soon as we have the agreement with Codelco. It is reflected, and you can calculate the number because it's quite clear in the agreement with SQM and Codelco that is public agreement.

這一點——我們的財務報表已經非常明確地說明，一旦與科德爾科達成協議，我們就必須立即採取行動。這一點已經反映在報表中，您可以自行計算相關數字，因為與SQM和科德爾科的協議是公開協議，其中對此有非常明確的規定。

Lucas, Carlos again. With respect to your first question, our production in China. Let me tell you the first that we expect to produce this year, like 100,000 metric tons, a lithium sulfate. So when you compare to lithium carbonate and hydroxide, you have to divide by two. So it's equivalent to 50,000 around that.

盧卡斯，我是卡洛斯。關於你的第一個問題，我們在中國的產量。我先告訴你我們今年預計生產的第一種產品，大約10萬噸硫酸鋰。所以，如果你把它和碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰相比，產量要除以二。所以，硫酸鋰的產量大約相當於碳酸鋰和氫氧化鋰的5萬噸左右。

And 20 of those is going to be produced in our (inaudible) plant in China and 30% is going to be produced with third parties. So we -- for the next -- for the coming year, we expect to keep increasing the production in lithium sulfate and we're studying and evaluating to expand our capacity in China in our own plant. That is our plan.

其中20%將在我們位於中國的（聽不清楚）工廠生產，30%將委託第三方生產。因此，在接下來的這一年裡，我們預計將繼續提高硫酸鋰的產量，並且我們正在研究和評估擴大我們在中國自有工廠的產能。這就是我們的計劃。

[Ben Isaacson, Scotiabank].

[本‧艾薩克森，加拿大豐業銀行]

This is Lucy on for Ben. And I have three questions. With the CapEx plan lower and lithium prices start to rise, how should we think about the need to raise capital in 2026? Is it fair to say that the base case scenario is no capital raise.

這裡是露西，替本提問。我有三個問題。隨著資本支出計畫的減少和鋰價的上漲，我們該如何看待2026年的融資需求？是否可以說，基本情況下不需要融資？

Well, you can see our balance sheet. We have a very strong balance sheet, and we have had always a strong balance sheet. And on these days, even at the current pricing environment, some of our main KPIs are improving. We are deeply committed to maintaining a strong investment grade. And there are several levers we believe, can be pulled before pulling the last one, which is raising capital.

您可以查看我們的資產負債表。我們的資產負債表非常穩健，而且一直以來都保持著穩健的財務狀況。即使在目前的定價環境下，我們的一些關鍵績效指標也在不斷改善。我們致力於維持良好的投資等級信用評等。我們相信，在採取最後一項措施——籌集資金——之前，還有幾種其他方法可以嘗試。

So we're working on several initiatives. And as long as we keep on having a strong balance sheet, it may not be ended.

所以我們正在推進幾項計劃。只要我們保持強勁的資產負債表，這些計劃可能就不會結束。

For my second question, earlier this year -- earlier this week, (inaudible) addressed a 30% to 40% lithium demand growth next year, do you have any preliminary thoughts on demand growth next year? And in particular, how do you see demand for ESS developing next year?

我的第二個問題是，今年早些時候——或者說本週早些時候，（聽不清楚）提到明年鋰需求將成長30%到40%，您對明年的需求成長有什麼初步看法嗎？特別是，您認為明年儲能係統（ESS）的需求將如何發展？

Lucy, (inaudible) here. So regarding pain, of course, we would need to look into the assumptions, but of course, this looks like a good and optimistic projection for next year. In our case, regarding 2026, we're still assessing demand growth expectations, and we remain relatively conservative, with the expectation to reach more than 1.7 million metric tons. And the main driver will continue to be the EVs. And of course, as you mentioned, the very strong demand that we've seen on the BSS side.

我是露西（聽不清楚）。關於疼痛，當然，我們需要研究假設條件，但就目前來看，這似乎是對明年一個良好且樂觀的預測。就我們而言，關於2026年，我們仍在評估需求成長預期，目前仍持相對保守的態度，預計需求量將超過170萬噸。主要驅動力仍將是電動車。當然，正如您所提到的，我們在BSS方面也看到了非常強勁的需求。

Perfect. And finally, how much random production growth do you expect to see in 2026 that is not from SQM, and is this all Chile based.

完美。最後，您預計2026年除了SQM之外，還有多少隨機的生產成長？這些成長都來自智利嗎？

With regarding to the third parties production, I mean, with the public information that we have, we believe that most of that will come from Chile, from (inaudible) and we don't have the exact figure, but our expectation is that, that amount will not surpass the growth of the total demand.

關於第三方生產，我的意思是，根據我們掌握的公開信息，我們認為大部分將來自智利，來自（聽不清），我們沒有確切的數字，但我們預計，這個數量不會超過總需求的增長。

Andres Castanos-Mollor, Berenberg.

安德烈斯·卡斯塔諾斯-莫洛爾，貝倫貝格。

Can you please just update us on the progress to close on the deal with Codelco and remind us what the milestones are pending. What happens if it doesn't close by 2025? Is there a long stop close there? What will happen?

請您更新與科德爾科的交易進度，並提醒我們有哪些里程碑尚未達成。如果到2025年交易仍未完成會怎樣？是否有長期阻礙？屆時會發生什麼事？

Ricardo speaking. First is we are -- as we announced, we closed with an agreement with the antitrust authority in China that was the last remaining external authorization we needed. And now everything is under review, especially the agreements between (inaudible) under the review of Contraloria and Chile controls like an internal audit body of the government that needs to review these kind of contracts. We expect that this review will be positive and will be the end of the year. There's no second plan. We will close this year. That's for sure.

里卡多發言。首先，正如我們先前宣布的，我們已經與中國反壟斷機構達成協議，這是我們所需的最後一個外部授權。現在一切都在審查中，特別是（聽不清楚）與智利國家反壟斷局（Contraloria）和智利政府內部審計機構（例如政府內部審計機構）之間的協議，這些機構需要審查此類合約。我們預計審查結果將是正面的，並將在年底前完成。沒有第二階段計劃。我們肯定會在今年完成所有工作。

That's great. Another question, if I may. This would be asking on 2026 expected mix out of Australia. Our mix of spodumene and etroxide you expect to get out of Australia in 2026. If you could indicate something about this.

太好了。如果可以的話，我還有一個問題。我想問的是2026年澳洲預計生產的混合物。我們預計2026年澳洲能產出鋰輝石和乙二胺四乙酸的混合物。您能否提供一些相關資訊？

Andres, this is Mark Fones. We have not yet closed our budget for next year on production for on Mt. Holland. What I can tell you is that the mine concentrator on Mt. Holland, we expect to be producing at capacity. So of course, we will be expecting half of Mt. Holland capacity in terms of spodumene concentrate.

安德烈斯，我是馬克‧福恩斯。我們尚未最終確定霍蘭德山礦區明年的生產預算。但我可以告訴你的是，霍蘭德山礦區的選礦廠預計將滿載運作。因此，就鋰輝石精礦而言，我們預期產量將達到霍蘭德山礦區產能的一半。

What happens with the ramp-up on the refinery on the other hand, is that we've announced the first product this year, as you well know, and we will be ramping up production until almost reaching name plate capacity by the end of 2026.

另一方面，煉油廠的產能提升情況是，如您所知，我們已經宣布了今年的第一款產品，我們將逐步提高產量，直到 2026 年底幾乎達到額定產能。

What's the exact amount of that lithium droxide considering all the good work that has been performing covalent with farmers and SQM at the refinery in addition to all the challenges as any ramp-up in a capital predict will happen next year, still remains to be seen, and we will let the market inform in due time.

考慮到煉油廠與農民和 SQM 進行的卓有成效的工作，以及明年資本增產所面臨的所有挑戰，究竟需要多少氧化鋰還有待觀察，我們將在適當的時候讓市場給出答案。

Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank.

科琳‧布蘭查德，德意志銀行。

The first question, I would like to get more colors on the CapEx reduction. You reduced by about 22% versus what we had last year. But I think in the price release, you stated that there will not be -- you will not have an impact on any capacity or projects. So I'm not sure how to think about it. So maybe if you can help us understand the reduction of CapEx and for which business or segment division come to and maybe any project that had been pushed out of the 2027 range. That would be helpful.

第一個問題，我想更詳細地了解一下資本支出削減的情況。你們的削減幅度比去年大約有22%。但我記得在價格公告中，你們說過這不會影響任何產能或項目。所以我不太確定該如何理解。所以，如果你們能幫我們解釋一下資本支出削減的具體情況，以及具體是哪些業務部門或業務板塊的削減，還有哪些項目被推遲到2027年之後，那就太好了。

Corinne, this is Gerardo. Let me give you a breakdown of what we announced. Well, yesterday, we announced that our CapEx program for the year '25, '27 will be somewhere around $2.7 billion.

科琳，我是傑拉爾多。讓我來給你簡單介紹一下我們宣布的內容。昨天，我們宣布了2025年和2027年資本支出計劃，總額約為27億美元。

The breakdown is going to be somewhere around $1.3 billion for the Lithium Chilean division that basically has -- the main projects that they have is to finish the expansion of lithium hydroxide to reach 100,000 metric tons that should be ready at the beginning of next year.

智利鋰業部門的預算約為 13 億美元，其主要項目是完成氫氧化鋰的擴建，使其產能達到 10 萬噸，預計明年年初完工。

Then the expansion to reach 260,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate capacity in Chile, while we keep on working on initiatives to keep on producing getting sulfate that is quite relevant, as Carlos was mentioning before.

然後，智利將擴建至 26 萬噸碳酸鋰產能，同時我們也持續推動相關舉措，以繼續生產硫酸鋰，這非常重要，正如卡洛斯之前提到的。

Then for the International Lithium division, the total CapEx that is included within this $2.7 billion is approximately $700 million, which includes approximately $400 million between the expansion of Mt. Holland and the first steps of assured.

然後，對於國際鋰業部門而言，這 27 億美元中包含的總資本支出約為 7 億美元，其中包括 Mt. Holland 擴建和保障措施的第一步之間的約 4 億美元。

Of course, both projects are subject to approval with our partners. But that's what is included in this time frame. And finally, in the ION and Plant Nutrition business line, the total CapEx is approximately $800 million. That includes the seawater pipeline that should be ready next year that is going to be critical to give us flexibility to produce more in. And also the Maria Elena in production side that should let us bring additional production of -- or capacity of IOI as of this moment.

當然，這兩個項目都需要獲得合作夥伴的批准。但這就是目前的時間安排。最後，在離子交換和植物營養業務方面，總資本支出約為 8 億美元。這包括預計明年完工的海水管道，該管道對於我們提高產能靈活性至關重要。此外，還有生產方面的 Maria Elena 項目，該項目將使我們能夠增加 IOI 的產量或產能。

Maybe the second question coming back to the Codelco agreement. Are you still waiting for the local group to be consulted? And if so, like can you provide an update of where you stand with them?

第二個問題可能還是關於Codelco協定。你們還在等待與當地團體進行磋商嗎？如果是的話，能否提供一下你們與他們溝通的最新進展？

No, no, sorry. Regarding the communities, we had the agreement with the communities that was, I think, a couple of months ago. It was publicly released that we had the final agreement in order to move forward. And the only one that has already explained to you is the internal auditing body of the government that is reviewing the agreements between CORFO and Codelco after they finish their review and their approval, we will continue with the joint venture start-up. Thank you.

不，不，抱歉。關於社區方面，我們和社區達成了協議，我想大概是幾個月前。我們已經公開宣布達成最終協議，可以繼續推進專案。目前唯一向您解釋過的是政府內部審計機構正在審查CORFO和Codelco之間的協議。在他們完成審查和批准後，我們將繼續推動合資企業的啟動。謝謝。

Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

馬爾西奧·法里德，高盛集團。

A quick follow-up on my side, please. You mentioned the demand expectations. I think you mentioned 25% growth to 1.5 million tonnes. I wasn't sure if that was related to 2025 or 2026, because in the presentation, you mentioned 20% expectations for the (inaudible) growth for 25%. And if you can also detail how you're seeing demand for 2026?

請容許我快速跟進。您提到了需求預期。我記得您說過成長25%，達到150萬噸。我不確定這是指2025年還是2026年，因為在演示中，您提到25%的成長預期是20%（聽不清楚）。能否也詳細說明一下您對2026年需求的預測？

And also maybe provide some more details around ESS demand, which has been following the market potential for the last few weeks would be great. And then I'll have a few follow-ups as well.

此外，如果能提供更多關於儲能係統（ESS）需求方面的資訊就更好了，過去幾週它一直與市場潛力保持同步。之後我還有一些後續問題。

Marcio, this is Gerardo. Give me one second before answering your question. And just to clarify something over the previous answer I gave. I mentioned 260,000 metric tons of lithium production, lithium carbonate production capacity in Chile but it refers to 260,000 metric tons of lithium production overall coming from Chile, from lithium chloride or toll in China from lithium sulfate.

馬西奧，我是傑拉爾多。請稍等片刻再回答你的問題。另外，我想澄清一下我之前的回答。我之前提到智利的碳酸鋰產能為26萬噸，但這裡指的是智利鋰總產量為26萬噸，包括來自氯化鋰的產量，以及從中國進口的硫酸鋰的產量。

Marcio, this is (inaudible). So on your question, the information that I previously provided on the 1.5 million metric tons -- over 1.5 million tones on the 25% year-over-year growth. That was related to 2025. And as I also mentioned our expectations for 2026 is that this number is going to be reaching over 1.7 million metric tons.

馬爾西奧，這裡是（聽不清楚）。關於你的問題，我之前提供的關於150萬噸的資訊──超過150萬噸，比去年同期成長25%。那是關於2025年的數據。正如我之前提到的，我們預計2026年這個數字將超過170萬噸。

Specifically to be assessed as you well mentioned, has been mentioned during the call, there's been a strong growth in demand from BSS, which we estimate over -- between 40% and 50% year-over-year growth this year, and we expect those numbers to remain stable for next year as well.

具體來說，正如您剛才提到的，在電話會議中也提到過，BSS 的需求出現了強勁增長，我們估計今年同比增長超過 40% 至 50%，我們預計明年這些數字也將保持穩定。

And maybe another follow-up on the Codelco deal. Can you provide us what are the expectations in terms of you probably need a revision of your license. If you go ahead with the plan to produce nearly 260,000 tonnes overall with Chilean assets.

或許還可以就Codelco的交易做個後續跟進。您能否告知我們，如果您繼續推進利用智利資產生產近26萬噸原油的計劃，您可能需要修改許可證，這方面的預期是什麼？

Obviously, in theory, it would be ideal that you'll defer as much CapEx as possible for when in becomes effective in 2030. So I'm just thinking if there is any CapEx related to (inaudible) that we can expect to be spent before 2030? Or can you defer that to beyond 2030 when the JV becomes effective, that would be great.

顯然，理論上來說，最理想的情況是盡可能將資本支出延後到2030年生效後。所以我在想，是否有任何與（聽不清楚）相關的資本支出需要在2030年之前支出？或者能否將其推遲到合資企業生效後的2030年之後，那就太好了。

First, the agreement will go into effect the same day we signed agreement that is going to happen in the next few weeks. I hope so. And after we signed agreement, we signed with Codelco, the agreement is starting. We don't need to wait until 2030. But you are right in terms that (inaudible) is a great -- and a great, great project, and we are working very hard on it.

首先，這項協議將在未來幾週內生效，生效日期與我們簽署的協議日期相同。我希望如此。在我們與科德爾科簽署協議後，協議就會開始生效。我們無需等到2030年。但您說得對，（聽不清楚）確實是一個很棒的項目，我們正在為此付出巨大的努力。

We expect to submit the environmental study to the authorities and communities during next year, it's going to be a complex project, and probably we will reach the final agreement during 2029, 2030 means that the initial investment in Salar Futuro, that is a big project and a very interesting one. will be 2030 or 2031 starting investment.

我們預計明年將向相關部門和社區提交環境影響評估報告。這將是一個複雜的項目，我們可能會在2029年或2030年達成最終協議，這意味著對薩拉爾富圖羅（Salar Futuro）的初始投資，這是一個規模龐大且非常有趣的項目，將從2030年或2031年開始。

It means that it will not affect the CapEx in the next three or four years. It will not affect 2026, '27 and we will continue with our today plan of projects in the Salar de Atacama as usual. That's why this project will have a significant impact, yes, and a very positive one.

這意味著它不會影響未來三、四年的資本支出。它不會影響2026年和2027年，我們將繼續按原計劃在阿塔卡馬鹽沼開展專案。因此，這個計畫確實會產生重大影響，而且是非常正面的影響。

starting, I hope to 2030, if not 2031.

我希望從2030年開始，如果不行，至少到2031年。

That's great. And maybe one last one on iodine. Obviously, markets being strong for a couple of years now. I think you're going to be adding about 5,000 tonnes of capacity once the new pipeline and Marian is really -- so can you talk a little bit about overall supply and demand conditions on iodine if you expect this price above $70 per ton or $70 per kilo to remain sustainable.

太好了。關於碘，或許可以問最後一個問題。顯然，碘市場近幾年一直很強勁。我認為，一旦新管道和瑪麗安項目投產，你們的產能將增加約5000噸——所以，如果你們預計碘價能持續保持在每噸或每公斤70美元以上，能否談談碘的整體供需狀況？

Where are the other areas of supply growth that could that could put some pressure on prices, if at all, in the next couple of years.

未來幾年，還有哪些其他供應成長領域可能會對價格構成壓力（如果有的話）？

Pablo speaking, was, as we have been said before, supply and demand for this year is tight because we -- this year, we are not seeing additional supply. Actually, the demand of this year is not growing because of the lack of supply. We believe that demand for the next year will grow in the range of 3% and why the demand will grow because we see more capacity arriving to the market next year. As I said before, it's coming from caliche ore mainly. So we believe that we'll have more supply next year.

正如我們之前所說，今年的供需關係緊張，因為今年我們沒有看到新增供應。實際上，由於供應不足，今年的需求並沒有成長。我們預計明年的需求將成長3%左右，需求成長的原因是我們預計明年將有更多產能進入市場。正如我之前所說，這些產能主要來自鈣質礦。因此，我們相信明年的供應量將會增加。

Our next question comes from the line of (inaudible) from Rothschild Redburn.

我們的下一個問題來自羅斯柴爾德·雷德伯恩的（聽不清楚）那一行。

So my first question is if we assume that lithium hydroxide and spodumene prices stay kind of at the same level as they are today for 2026. Would you expect the stand-alone profitability of Kwinana conversion to be positive.

所以我的第一個問題是，如果我們假設氫氧化鋰和鋰輝石的價格在2026年基本上保持在目前的水平，您認為奎納納煉油廠的獨立盈利能力會是正的嗎？

(inaudible) this is Mark Fones. Yes, as we have said before, we continue to see the long-term profitability of Kwinana and the Mt. Holland project to be positive. And we still see ourselves committed with our partners. And we will continue to develop this product, and that's the reason also we announced that we expect a final investment decision on the expansion for the mine concentrator for somewhere next year.

（聽不清楚）我是馬克·福恩斯。是的，正如我們之前所說，我們仍然看好奎納納礦區和霍蘭德山計畫的長期獲利能力。我們仍會與合作夥伴保持緊密的合作關係。我們將繼續開發這款產品，這也是我們宣布預計明年某個時候就礦山選礦廠擴建計畫做出最終投資決定的原因。

Okay. And maybe a follow-up on the Codelco deal. So the 201 kilotons of lithium that's attributable to Codelco, do I understand that correctly that will be paid as sort of revenue that's attributable to that amount of lithium? Or is it gross profit? Or is it some other metric.

好的。或許可以跟進Codelco的交易。 Codelco應佔的201千噸鋰，我理解的對嗎？這筆款項將作為與該數量鋰相關的收入支付？還是毛利？還是有其他計算方式？

(inaudible), this is Gerardo. Yes. The amount that is to be paid to Codelco, it's paid as a function of a certain amount of tonnage per year, which is 33.5% and it's paid as a dividend.

（聽不清楚），我是傑拉爾多。是的。應付給科德爾科公司的金額，是根據每年一定的噸位支付的，也就是33.5%，並且是以股息的形式支付的。

Yes. I just want to clarify, is it going to be the revenue that's derived from 33.5 million kilotons or gross profit, that's derived from that amount of lithium?

是的。我只是想確認一下，這是指3,350萬千噸鋰礦帶來的收入，還是指這3,350萬千噸鋰礦帶來的毛利？

It's a profitability that we get from this tonnage, but the exact calculation on the exact way of how you can get to the number, it's describing the contracts that are publicly available on our website.

這是我們從這些噸位中獲得的利潤，但要準確計算出這個數字，請參閱我們網站上公開的合約說明。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以斷開連線了。